Bits Bucket for April 5, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Realtors Are Liars®
From SmartMoney (people are smart!): The Case for Remaining a Renter
“Would be homeowners also may not want the added expense that comes with maintaining a house.”
BWA HA HA HA HA! The squad loves hearing about its loanowner coworkers getting hit with $2000 “surprises” that force them to spend their whole weekend at Home Depot.
“However, as the job market shows only tentative signs of recovery, financial advisors say there is still a big need for people to move for work.”
Yup. The squad reserves the right to go nomad. Can’t believe this story was linked from the WSJ, as their sister site Marketwatch only serves up Amy Hoak NAR propaganda. Loosers!
69charger is the creme de la creme.
Its never been a better time to buy stocks from the smart money.
Arrgh…
When is a merger-of-equals really a takeover? One easy way to tell is when the top brass get rich and undeserved paydays. There’s probably no better live example than the just-delayed sale of Massachusetts electric utility NSTAR. Its top five executives could feast on as much as $50 million in severance and change-of-control payments despite labeling their deal as one of mutual control for both sets of shareholders. As regulators probe the union more deeply, investors may want to do the same.
http://www.breakingviews.com/when-is-a-merger-of-equals-really-a-takeover?/1614714.article
NStar’s $5B merger with Northeast Utilities clears final hurdle
Boston-based NStar [NST] has won final approval for its planned $5 billion merger with Connecticut-headquartered Northeast Utilities — garnering support today from the Massachusetts Department of Utilities
http://bostonherald.com/business/general/view.bg?articleid=1061122255&format=comments&cnum=1
It will never end. Incestuous boards buddies approving each others merger swag.
Nstar board member Mr. Gifford:
Bank of America has a lucrative golden parachute ready for Charles “Chad” Gifford when he steps aside as chairman at the end of the month.
The amiable chief executive has managed to survive strategic misfires, one bungled merger and another which kept him in the top ranks of the bank but no longer in control.
Gifford, 62, will get $US16.36 million ($21.5 million) in cash, up to $US8.67 million more in “incentive payments” for work done over the past 13 months and $US3.1 million a year for life. If he dies before his wife, she will receive $US2.3 million a year, also for life.
That’s not all. The bank guarantees him $US50,000 a year in consulting fees, 120 hours of free flight time annually on the company’s jet and an office and a secretary, according to federal securities filings. All of this is on top of $US38.4 million in company stock that he has accrued over his 38-year career.
Utilities seem to be a great way to skim millions off various merge/divest sachems. My favorite was the TXU/Oncor deal in Texas for 45 Billion. Completely hedged to $6+ natural gas contracts for years out into the future. The team of Mitt Romney clones @ KKR/GS took millions in profit while selling billions in bonds to finance the deal. DoE forecasts gas will be sub $5 till 2020. This will not end well.http://blogs.dallasobserver.com/unfairpark/2012/03/efh_fitch_downgrade.php
Be glad you’re not looking at National Grid who puts the delivery charges up when gas prices fall because “they’re not making enough money” anymore. So called state regulators, of course, buy that as a viable argument.
Also if you are still looking for housing, consider Norwood. They’ve got their own electric company. In the late 90s we paid electric bills of all of $18 for the bottom half of a Victorian.
Planning a trip to Nevada? better bring a helmet.
Foreclosure Meltdown Slows Geothermal Interest in Nevada
RENO, NV - Nevada is desperately trying to bring high-tech, high-paying jobs to the state, recently approving efforts to become a proving ground for unmanned aircraft, driver less cars and renewable energy. In a report released Tuesday, Nevada’s effort appears to be paying off with more projects and prospects in renewable energy than the three closest states combined.
http://www.kolotv.com/home/headlines/Foreclosure_Meltdown_Slows_Geothermal_Interest_in_Nevada_146127005.html
When is a merger-of-equals really a takeover?
Uhm, always?
Dang it….
From Politico: Twitter, Facebook now tools for Big Brother
“Uncle Sam wants to read your tweets and Facebook updates — and, in some cases, already scours your feeds.
Federal agencies have realized they can mine social media for intel to help thwart potential terrorist strikes, keep tabs on domestic protests and better help citizens after a natural disaster. But privacy groups are clamoring for Congress to intervene, likening it to Big Brother.
The federal government informally has been combing Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and other social networks for publicly available citizen tidbits for years. Now, several agencies — the FBI and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency included — are seeking custom tracking technologies to help them scrape social-media sites by computer for certain keywords or trending topics that could help provide them with real-time intelligence.
Privacy advocates have taken to the courts to fight federal agencies to comply with Freedom of Information Act requests on these programs, which they are concerned have the potential to not only invade privacy but silence peaceful dissent.”
I understand the need to fight every intrusion of civil liberties because it’s a slippery slope. But it should also be pointed out that all of our communications are subject to govt examination. The president can now legally indefinitely jail or kill any of us, with no trial.
‘Army General Keith Alexander, the director of the NSA, is having a busy year — hopping around the country, cutting ribbons at secret bases and bringing to life the agency’s greatly expanded eavesdropping network. In January he dedicated the new $358 million CAPT Joseph J. Rochefort Building at NSA Hawaii, and in March he unveiled the 604,000-square-foot John Whitelaw Building at NSA Georgia.’
‘Designed to house about 4,000 earphone-clad intercept operators, analysts and other specialists, many of them employed by private contractors, it will have a 2,800-square-foot fitness center open 24/7, 47 conference rooms and VTCs, and “22 caves,” according to an NSA brochure from the event. No television news cameras were allowed within two miles of the ceremony.’
‘The climax, however, will be the opening next year of the NSA’s mammoth 1-million-square-foot, $2 billion Utah Data Center. The centerpiece in the agency’s decade-long building boom, it will be the “cloud” where the trillions of millions of intercepted phone calls, e-mails, and data trails will reside, to be scrutinized by distant analysts over highly encrypted fiber-optic links.’
‘One of the agency’s biggest secrets is just how careless it is with that ocean of very private and very personal communications, much of it to and from Americans. Increasingly, obscure and questionable contractors — not government employees — install the taps, run the agency’s eavesdropping infrastructure, and do the listening and analysis.’
‘In addition to constructing the Stellar Wind center, and then running the operation, secretive contractors with questionable histories and little oversight were also used to do the actual bugging of the entire U.S. telecommunications network. According to a former Verizon employee briefed on the program, Verint, owned by Comverse Technology, taps the communication lines at Verizon, which I first reported in my book The Shadow Factory in 2008. Verint did not return a call seeking comment, while Verizon said it does not comment on such matters.’
‘At AT&T the wiretapping rooms are powered by software and hardware from Narus, now owned by Boeing, a discovery made by AT&T whistleblower Mark Klein in 2004. Narus did not return a call seeking comment. What is especially troubling is that both companies have had extensive ties to Israel, as well as links to that country’s intelligence service, a country with a long and aggressive history of spying on the U.S.’
‘In fact, according to Binney, the advanced analytical and data mining software the NSA had developed for both its worldwide and international eavesdropping operations was secretly passed to Israel by a mid-level employee, apparently with close connections to the country. The employee, a technical director in the Operations Directorate, “who was a very strong supporter of Israel,” said Binney, “gave, unbeknownst to us, he gave the software that we had, doing these fast rates, to the Israelis.’
“…trillions of millions of intercepted phone calls, e-mails, and data trails will reside, to be scrutinized by distant analysts over highly encrypted fiber-optic links.”
Quite a bit of time and effort will be needed to analyze those trillions of millions of personal communications.
…and there’s the thing. They can’t.
The WWW is now a neural net operating at almost the quantum level. You would need ANOTHER WWW to analyze the WWW along with quantum analysis tools.
‘One of the agency’s biggest secrets is just how careless it is with that ocean of very private and very personal communications, much of it to and from Americans. Increasingly, obscure and questionable contractors — not government employees — install the taps, run the agency’s eavesdropping infrastructure, and do the listening and analysis.’
Sounds like a major clusterfork.
Sounds like a major clusterfork ??
Which will likely end up with the incarceration any number of innocent americans…
May I help you ??
Turn around sir…You are under arrest by the NSA…
Why ??
Because of these emails you sent….
I never sent those emails…
Yeah, right….Tell it to your counsel…Assuming we let you have one…
Drone use in the US. Eye in the sky. How depressing.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505266_162-57409759/drone-use-in-the-u.s-raise-privacy-concerns/
Man, it’s a good thing we won the cold war.
Let Freedom Ring … somewhere else.
Gotta love corporate communism.
There seems to be a big disconnect with the American public mentality, particularly among liberal democrats. What the difference between a “contractor” and a “governmental employee” doing the spying?
Answer: the method of payment. one is direct from the government, the other is from the government through a private company.
In both cases we have someone that no one should trust, spying on us an being paid by the government with our tax dollars.
And yet, to the liberal mind, it’s only BAD if it’s done via “outsourcing”. If it’s a government employee (i.e. homeland security spy), then it’s okay.
Go figure.
‘What the difference between a “contractor” and a “governmental employee” doing the spying?’
Contractors are presumably less accountable.
What the difference between a “contractor” and a “governmental employee” doing the spying ??
Or KILLING !! I.E “BlackWater”….
American public mentality, particularly among liberal
democrats ??
Refresh my memory for me….Was it the liberal democrats that sent BlackWater over to Iraq ??
The Washington Post had an excellent series about the mushrooming of assorted security/sureveillance firms around the Beltway post 9/11.
The bubblicious metro DC prices are not supported by GS-11 worker bees
Fed contractor here, and since technically a “private sector” employee, it’s all bootstraps and rugged individualism and free markets, right?
Of course it was scdave! And they’re also the champions of outsourcing and smaller government being privatized!
Oh wait…. no they aren’t.
The 4th Amendment was destroyed by the War on Drugs along with most due process. Who was it that said “Just say no”? Hint: it wasn’t a librul democrat.
The difference between a gov employee and the contractor is there is more immediate accountability with the gov employee.
Any form of random spying by anyone violates the 4th Amendment.
Contractors are presumably less accountable.
Why would you say that? My experience is that the government employee enjoys immunity and can’t be sued or prosecuted for errors or omissions.
When I contract with a government entity I don’t enjoy such protections and in fact there are government employees who feel obligated to blow the whistle on you. Here is an example.
I contracted with the FBO ( Fixed base operator ) at Mammoth Yosemite Airport to insulate an airplane hangar. It turns out that the hangar is owned by the town of Mammoth Lakes. The town’s accounting assistant called me and told me that I needed to include a line for California sales tax on my invoice for a material draw. She told me that if I refused that she would turn me into California’s franchise tax board. I got her to agree to give me time to check with counsel before she turned me in and she agreed but she turned me in anyway which resulted in more threats from the town.
Two weeks later the town did call and retract their demand because the franchise tax board informed them that this transaction was not taxable.
It is also my experience that if I lodge a complaint about the actions of a town employee that the town initiates an investigation where they determine that the town and the employee are all faultless. They simply determine the facts in their favor.
Our town of 8,500 is about to file bankruptcy over a $42.7M judgement. The town counsel and staff defrauded a developer and he won the suit in superior court as well as the appeal. Of course the town’s staff and counsel are faultless, the courts are to blame!
As I’ve said, before, it’s the local governments that create over-regulation and drive small business out of business.
Your examples do show that they are more accountable. Granted, not by much sometimes.
What I don’t understand is how outsourcing to private contractors generates cost savings. If the idea is to downsize government, then hiring private contractors to do the same work as government employees is not the answer.
We end up paying the profits of the contract companies in addition to the employee costs. And we also end up paying for the companies’ lobbying efforts to maintain access to government contracts and political contributions to campaigns of those who favor outsourcing.
If the work needs to be done, then ISTM that government employees are cheaper than contractors.
We end up paying the profits of the contract companies in addition to the employee costs. And we also end up paying for the companies’ lobbying efforts to maintain access to government contracts and political contributions to campaigns of those who favor outsourcing.
Precisely!
What’s not to understand. Outsourcing is the ultimate political favor, legitimized!
It’s the same reasoning that says we had to send our union jobs to a communist country.
…and that a consumer driven economy deosn’t need consumers.
So many juicy stories the squad could tell were it not for confidentiality agreement
Outsourcing to a contractor is infinitely safer when the gov wants to hide something.
1. No more open records requirements. As a private company it’s much harder to just open the books and take a look even years after the event. If they did something really heinous they could just go out of business and reform and their might be no records at all.
2. Private employee is much easier to intimidate with job loss for whistleblowing. No union to defend them. No federal rules on hiring and firing.
It’s also easier to skim money from the gov. I give you a campaign contribution and you give my company a lucrative contract. I’ll pay myself a massive salary and my employees will make much less.
What I want to know is what’s to keep these private firms from using illegal intelligence to front run the stock market or sell stories to the news papers, isn’t Rupert Murdoch in trouble for something like this in Great Britain.
“Any form of random spying by anyone violates the 4th Amendment.”
I suggest a national crisis such as the War on Terror or even the Great Recession trumps the provisions of the Bill of Rights?
Why would you say that?
“Outsourcing to a contractor is infinitely safer when the gov wants to hide something.”
Charlie Tango — this is precisely what I meant. I didn’t mean to slight you by suggesting that contractors do inferior work; as somebody who has worked in the private sector, in government, and as a private contractor, I can assure you that the best efforts I have ever made were in my contract work. It has to do with incentives: If a contractor doesn’t do a good job, he doesn’t eat; if he does a good job, he eats well.
“‘The climax, however, will be the opening next year of the NSA’s mammoth 1-million-square-foot, $2 billion Utah Data Center.”
That data centre sounds awfully expensive to run. Best to outsource it’s functions to India. What was it they do again?
It’s probably a “lights out” center. Which means next to no staff, plus being here it means that suppliers (IBM, HP, Oracle, etc.) are nearby for on site support.
We call them Data Centers here…
Federal agencies have realized they can mine social media for intel to help thwart potential terrorist strikes, keep tabs on domestic protests and better help citizens after a natural disaster. But privacy groups are clamoring for Congress to intervene, likening it to Big Brother.
ISTR hearing about a protest a few years back. It lasted something like a day, and while it was going on, the protesters made a point of using words like “terrorist” in their phone calls.
That must have driven the NSA nuts.
another foreclosure wave:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/04/us-foreclosure-idUSBRE83319E20120404
This is a shocker, as almost every other MSM article I have read in recent months suggested the “foreclosure crisis” was winding down.
Americans brace for next foreclosure wave
By Nick Carey
GARFIELD HEIGHTS, Ohio | Wed Apr 4, 2012 7:09pm EDT
(Reuters) - Half a decade into the deepest U.S. housing crisis since the 1930s, many Americans are hoping the crisis is finally nearing its end. House sales are picking up across most of the country, the plunge in prices is slowing and attempts by lenders to claim back properties from struggling borrowers dropped by more than a third in 2011, hitting a four-year low.
But a painful part two of the slump looks set to unfold: Many more U.S. homeowners face the prospect of losing their homes this year as banks pick up the pace of foreclosures.
“We are right back where we were two years ago. I would put money on 2012 being a bigger year for foreclosures than 2010,” said Mark Seifert, executive director of Empowering & Strengthening Ohio’s People (ESOP), a counseling group with 10 offices in Ohio.
“Last year was an anomaly, and not in a good way,” he said.
…
Garfield Heights is the bunghole of eastern Cuyahoga County. It is just down Broadway from Cleveland’s Slavic Village which was the epicenter of the initial subprime mortgage meltdown (which was excellently covered by the BBC) and surrounded by other inner ring suburbs with no direction to go but down. Cuyahoga County should just be bulldozed from the map and turned into a nature preserve.
Pray and delay is working, has worked … for the banks.
Pray and delay kept ‘em staying and kept ‘em paying. In not paying at least it kept ‘em staying. And as long as they are staying - and are fooled into thinking they actually OWN the house they are staying in and maybe are paying for - they will keep it up as if they do own it. That means when the bank decides to drop the hammer and foreclose they will have a nifty house to resell rather one that has been trashed.
And the market IS turning because there is a huge pile of OPM out there in the land of NoReturn that is despertely looking for a decent yield and, because it is a well known and indisputable and entrenched fact (er, opinion) that THE PRICE OF REAL ESTATE NEVER GOES DOWN the huksters are are able to get out there in force grabbing hold of this pile of OPM and rapidly converting the OPM pile into management fees. And their doing this creates a big market for the banks to dump their holdings into.
See, it’s all good (at least it is for the banks).
So the banks are getting bailed out by stupid OPM. Sounds like a good deal for us, really, as long as the OPM isn’t ours.
Post-collapse investing strategy numero uno: Avoid becoming OPM.
“Sounds like a good deal for us, really, as long as the OPM isn’t ours.”
This is sarcasm, right?
Anyone know where to find a (reliable) foreclosure prediction BY CITY?
I’m watching a trio of houses in my nabe.
One’s a rental that’s been unoccupied since last year, the other’s involved in what appears to be a nasty divorce, and the third was probably too much for the family to afford from day one.
Haven’t started a “first to foreclose” betting pool yet, but I’m tempted.
Is it possible the market downdraft du juor represents a “show of force” by QE3 cargo cult members to pressure central bankers into yet again flooding the markets with liquidity?
Is it too early to play “Sell in May, Go Away”?
MARKETS
Updated April 5, 2012, 12:07 a.m. ET
Markets Fear End of Stimulus
Global Stocks Sink on Worries Central Bankers in Europe, U.S. Won’t Act Further
By JONATHAN CHENG And CHARLES FORELLE
Fears that the central banks of Europe and the U.S. may soon end efforts to support financial markets as well as fresh concerns about the health of Europe’s weakest countries drove down stock markets around the world Wednesday.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi indicated he would be hesitant to undertake more monetary easing, citing concerns about inflation. That surprised investors who had been relying on the ECB to help support the region’s economy and financial markets.
Adding to concerns, an auction Wednesday of Spanish government bonds was met with surprisingly lackluster demand. The disappointing sale was a reminder to investors that Europe’s problems are far from over, and prices of European sovereign bonds fell, sending yields higher. The euro also dropped against the dollar.
Stock indexes from New York to Frankfurt to Tokyo fell sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 124.80 points to 13074.75, its worst day since March 6. In Germany, the DAX index dropped 2.8%, its biggest one-day fall in a month. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average tumbled 2.3%, its worst day since Nov. 10. Stocks were down in Japan and other Asian markets early Thursday.
The slide began in the U.S. Tuesday after signs from the Federal Reserve that it won’t immediately embark on a new round of bond buying. That dashed hopes of investors who had anticipated a new program would further juice financial markets and the economy.
“People thought that central banks could solve all of our problems and that we could forget all about Europe,” said Jerry Webman, chief economist of New York-based OppenheimerFunds, which manages $184 billion in assets. “The weak Spanish auction tells us that these risks in Europe are still there. The markets are right to be a bit cautious about how the European debt situation evolves.”
Investors are divided about whether the declines of the past two days are merely an overdue pullback, or whether it is the beginning of a longer-term slump. Many financial markets had their best first quarter in years, a reason some investors say sets them up for further declines.
…
Now its time to take punchbowl away. Smart money pumps up market, retail joins party too late. smart money goes short, market tanks, retail panics and sells. smart money buys again and begins the recovery story again. Bottom line, get on the right side of the trade.
But Bernanke promised QE3. Where’s my QE3 cargo drop of cash?
I think they might pause and see if this market can levitate on its own.
“…see if this market can levitate on its own.”
Fat chance.
April 5, 2012, 1:28 a.m. EDT
Bears not rampant
Commentary: Veteran letters view break calmly
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Stocks stumble, but key letters, although usually bearish, are not giving up on this market.
Dow Theory Letters’ veteran Richard Russell is about the most pessimistic. He wrote after the market’s close:
“I took the action as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.02% “trying” all session to go positive, but lacking the buying power. I thought the market was churning, burning up ammunition, but sadly unable even to go positive. Therefore, I gave today’s stock market session a D minus, not a good day for the market by my figuring.”
Russell was more optimistic about gold. He wrote:
“Gold spent the day down around 58 dollars, but trading the whole time above 1600. At the low 1600s and below 1600 — it’s ‘enter the dragon’.”
That’s a reference to Russell’s increasing belief in what he calls a “Chinese Put” — “China is moving in to scoop up gold on any gold weakness.”
…
Greek suicide seen as an act of fortitude as much as one of despair
Pensioner Dimitris Christoulas wanted to ’send a political message’ about the inequities of Greece’s crushing debt crisis
The retired pharmacist overnight has become a symbol of resistance for those who perceive austerity politics as unfair and ultimately self-defeating. For many Greeks trapped in a fifth year of grinding recession, Dimitris Christoulas’s death has not just been seen as an act of despair but one of fortitude in a world with little light at the end of the tunnel.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/05/greek-suicide-dimitris-christoulas-protest?newsfeed=true
At times it can be a sad world we live in.
This is Paul Ryan’s dream for this country
Republican campaign strategy: Do everything within their power to precipitate economic collapse, then blame it on Obama.
Too bad about the stock market.
Cut Medicare and Social Security problems go away.
Greek suicide seen as an act of fortitude as much as one of despair
Where else but Greece for another great tragedy?
Indeed.
Ben posted this yesterday:
‘Until now, Waypoint, which focuses on the Bay Area and Southern California, has been buying foreclosed properties one by one in courthouse auctions or through traditional real estate agents. Because the inspectors are not allowed inside these homes, they are driving by 40 of them a day, estimating renovation costs by looking at eaves, windows and the conditions of lawns.’
Let’s do a quick analysis to estimate how close they’re getting to “getting it right”.
Assume the inspector works 12 hours a day. If each house is 5 minutes away from the last house, and the inspector has no commute, he spends 5 * 40 = 3.33 hours in the car. So he has 8.67 hours remaining. He gets gas once, takes a couple leaks at McDonalds and grabs something while there, gets lost a couple times. Give him 8 hours even to inspect 40 houses. He has to crank out 5 houses an hour, or a little over 10 minutes per house.
So, he parks his car, turns on the iPad, selects the house, walks around it once. Notes the condition of the roof (without climbing up onto it). Takes 10 seconds to note the grass hasn’t been mowed in 10 months, just like every other foreclosure out there. Notices there is very little rot on anything. Sees a crack in the foundation, but can’t deduce its cause because he can’t get in the house to see what it looks like on the inside. Makes a crapshoot guess in 8 seconds that the foundaiton crack is nothing. Notes that in the iPad. Magic software takes his notes, compares it to comps in the neighborhood, and comes up with a value.
Walks around, finds a tree to take a leak on while the iPad goes into sleep mode.
Gets back in his car, hits “next destination” on his iPad. He gets his $5 comission for doing the leg work. Drives away, never to be bothered by this house again. And every fifth or sixth house he notes something that might be troubling or a deal breaker, just to keep the bosses thinking he’s doing the impossible job he’s been assigned.
“…the impossible job he’s been assigned.”
I think you are unduly pessimistic. The renovation cost estimates have to be plausible, and it is OK if they are upwardly biased. So long as they pencil out on average, it’s all good.
Now think about the bets people made during the runup in home prices from 1997-2006; did they tend to do alright on an individual basis, let alone on average?
These guys are taking the post-collapse side of that bet.
If an inspector cannot get into a house, it is a waste of time to even call them out.
If an inspector cannot get into a house, it is a waste of time to even call them out.
I have heard that breaking and entering is very common in these instances, particularly when a vacant house is about to go to auction.
“…they are driving by 40 of them a day…”
They could refer to multiple inspectors covering a total of 40 houses per day. This interpretation would make the numbers more sensible.
If multiple inspectors were each driving by 40, then the sentence should read:
“…they are each driving by 40 of them a day…”
You might be right. To invest so little in research before plunking down cash seems foolish, even for institutional infestors.
Point of info: My former landlady bought a foreclosed two-house property back in 1998. Before she won the auction on the courthouse steps, she wasn’t allowed to go inside the two houses to check their condition.
In essence, she was buying a pig in a poke. And boy was that pig hungry. Took her the better part of a decade to bring those houses back up to snuff.
The Republicans better rethink their stopped-clock Obamaville campaign strategy, as improving jobs picture threatens to make them look foolish.
And why didn’t they name their infomercial “Bushville,” in honor of the president who brought us the Great Recession?
April 5, 2012, 9:00 a.m. EDT
Will jobs data push Obama past magic 50 mark?
President hovering near key pivot point in national approval ratings
By Russ Britt, MarketWatch
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — This Friday’s jobs data could do more than just rock the markets up or down — they could go a long way toward determining the fortunes of President Barack Obama.
Obama’s national approval ratings have been mired in the 40% range for most of the last two years, closely mirroring his disapproval numbers. A positive jobs report could lift Obama past the magic 50% threshold, considered a key pivot point for a president to win re-election.
“The safe number is 50-plus, unless it’s a three-way race,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “He’s on the cusp. Right now it could go either way.”
Recent general election polls nationwide show that President Obama has a lead over the Republican candidates. Director of Marist Institute for Public Opinion Lee Miringoff explains how a change in the public’s view of the economy is affecting the president’s chances to win.
An average of the latest polls from a variety of sources put Obama’s approval rating at 48%, with 46.5% of the electorate saying they disapprove of his job performance, according RealClearPolitics.com.
…
Making a bold prediction. This is my first and last prediction. I will not vote for either of the turds.
Romney wins the electoral college and Obama popular votes.
Romney is the new president and Occupy WallStreet goes mainstream.
O gets reelected, disaster unfolds exactly as predicted in Michael Savage’s new book. Constitution is replaced with Saul Alinsky’s “Rules for Radicals”. It’s all true, it was on the Drudge Report
You could be right. Live under NDAA or Rules for Radicals, I prolly choose the Radicals myself.
If O gets reelected, it will ruin the democratic party for yrs to come just like W did with the republican party.
If O gets reelected, it will ruin the democratic party for yrs to come ??
Wrong….When O gets re-elected it will drive the final nail in the coffin of the neocons now recognized as the radical fringe that will just be ignored by future candidates…Once those candidates distance themselves from that group a true center-right conservative can offer this Independent a alternative choice…
When O gets re-elected it will drive the final nail in the coffin of the neocons
Actually neocons prefer O to any other republicans. One more war under Obama, they will be back to their roots. Read Frum when you get a chance to find out how neocons think these days.
Romney loses as Evangs and Fundies refuse to vote for him, because he’s a Mormon.
To understand just how afraid the Fundies are of a Mormon prez, he’s driven them into Santorum’s (a Catholic) arms.
Spot on Colorado…
O has an advantage over R-can candidates on many levels, including religion.
Romney loses as Evangs and Fundies refuse to vote for him, because he’s a Mormon.
Then the fundies and the neocons and “movement conservatives” will all claim that Romney lost because he was a RINO, a moderate, or whatever. The wailing and gnashing of teeth among Republicans will be so intense that it will give the Tea Party a second wind and Fox News and Limbaugh higher ratings. That, in turn, will help the Republicans in 2014.
Tea Party a second wind and Fox News and Limbaugh higher ratings ??
Higher ratings with whom ?? They are already preaching to the Choir…Unless you believe that somehow, someway they are going to increase the amount of their “believers” in some significant way how the hell do they win ?? They won’t hold hands with a moderate as we are witnessing with the Santorum circus…And they have done wonders to embrace the women voters don’t ya think ??
IMO, bottom line is that Bush (along with Cheney) with the unwavering support of the fundamentalists, the military and the angry white men “Nuked” the republican party as we once new it…I know it nuked me out of it and I am quite sure I am not alone…
I forecast the racists/neocons/creepysocialconservatives will throw themselves off the nearest bridge after O’s re-election.
The hated wall street banks and big corporate CEO’s own Obama as much or more than they have any previous president. It seems some of you are fine with that as long as he keeps the goodies coming.
I know this, there will be no Republican or Democrat candidate for POTUS that will leave office in four years having increased my liberty. Government will continue to grow until the host is dead. The corruption and collusion on both sides should frighten everyone.
No. I agree with with you surprisingly.
The better the jobs picture, the weaker the stock market, as the chances of the Fed invoking QE3 erode with each additional green shoot of recovery.
Nonetheless, the DJIA seems securely supported at 13K.
MarketWatch dot com
U.S. EMPLOYMENT
Weekly jobless claims tick lower
The trend toward lower filings for jobless benefits holds: 357,000 first-time applications are submitted last week.
• Planned job cuts off 27% in March
• Goldman lifts payrolls target to 200,000
I found a green shoot:
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/pcln
Weekly jobless claims tick lower
Read below the headline. They have been pulling this stunt for weeks now.
The prior week’s figure was revised up to 363,000 from the previously reported 359,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a claims reading of 355,000 for last week.
Little data adjustments don’t matter in the big scheme of things. The important news is that the new claims figure is firmly below 400,000, indicating a steady labor market recovery is underway.
Republican politicians better hope there are enough stupid voters to ignore this and focus on their message of economic doom, or they will lose the election by looking foolish on the economy.
Republican politicians better hope there are enough stupid voters to ignore this and focus on their message of economic doom
Any stupid or non-stupid voters can see the whole economic recovery is nothing more than a smoke and mirrors. However Republican leaders are truly stupid enough to snatch a defeat from jaws of victory. For example; Cain, Sir Newton and Satorum. And that’s just in last 6 months.
“…nothing more than a smoke and mirrors.”
I see green shoots. What do you see? (data please, not platitudes)?
Even better, could you kindly describe what kind of employment data would convince you that the recovery in progress is not “smoke and mirrors”?
Bloomberg News
U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level in Four Years
By Lorraine Woellert on April 05, 2012
Claims (INJCJC) for U.S. unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level in four years, adding to recent reports showing signs of health in the economy.
Jobless claims fell 6,000 to 357,000 in the week ended March 31, the fewest since April 2008, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 43 economists in a Bloomberg News survey estimated a decrease to 355,000. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls also dropped, while those getting extended payments increased.
The improved labor market, rising stock prices and easier credit are lifting U.S. consumer confidence and spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. A report tomorrow may show the world’s largest economy added more than 200,000 jobs in March for a third consecutive month, the longest streak of similar increases since late 1999 to early 2000.
…
And what kind of retail sales figures would be good enough to convince you there is a real recovery underway?
So far as I can tell, the only part of the economy whose outlook is currently worsening is Wall Street, as each green shoot of recovery reduces the likelihood of a QE3 cargo drop of cashola.
April 5, 2012, 9:06 a.m. EDT
Easter’s spring blessing for retailers’ March
Retailers remain cautious about sales prospects for April
By Andria Cheng, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Despite the shadow of rising gasoline prices, shoppers came out to spend in March, spurred by warmer weather, an earlier arrival of Easter and a brighter and fresher spring assortment.
Discounter Target Corp., No.1 U.S. clothing chain Gap Inc., Victoria’s Secret parent Limited Brands Inc. and department-store operator Macy’s Inc. all reported better-than-expected results, as most retailers checked in with their monthly sales results Thursday.
Target’s sales rose 7.3% on the month, beating the 5.4% estimate. The company (TGT +0.40%) also raised its first-quarter profit forecast to $1.04 to $1.10 a share excluding items, up from as much as $1.07 a share previously.
…
What about labor participation rates? If participation rate is going down, people leaving the work force altogether are considered, how does lower new claims show improvement?
“If participation rate is going down, people leaving the work force altogether are considered, …”
Maybe this time is different, but normally labor force participation goes up with employment.
The “recovery” is and will forever be a Lucky Ducky recovery. Real incomes adjusted for inflation will never recover. Any and all recovery will accrue only to the 1% and the 2-5% employed as their fluffers. The Long Hot Summer is here, enjoy it
“Real incomes adjusted for inflation will never recover.”
Give ‘em 20 years. By then, there will be enough wealthy, though decrepit, geezers relative to the size of the U.S. labor force to provide plenty of labor demand.
Respectfully disagree. In twenty years the 1% will still be the 1%. What could be considered a middle class standard of living will be enjoyed by only 10-15%. While technically employed, the vast majority of this country will be Lucky Ducky working poor. The squad is 100% correct in this prediction, you’ll see
“The squad is 100% correct in this prediction, you’ll see…”
Here’s to hoping we are both around to compare predictions. May the odds be ever in our favor.
What could be considered a middle class standard of living will be enjoyed by only 10-15%.
Sounds right. By then our transformation into a 3rd world society should be complete.
I find I can work almost everyday as a “professional” substitute teacher; for which I went two years post-grad to get my license to teach.
However, it only pays $25k per year if I am lucky.
My wife did not go to college and works part time at $10/hour. So we pull in $35k per year(plus $10k income from my rental house). So $45k per year.
Our private medical insurance/doctor/meds expenses have equalled $20k per year over the last few years. Which leaves us $25k to pay rent(12k). Which leaves $1000/month for food, other insurances, gas, utilities, and other incidentals. We have recently started taking food stamps and have qualified the children for Oregon Health Plan. Not cuz we want assistance; we need it.
So with two incomes; one at a “professional” rate of pay; and one paid for house simply does not provide enough $$ to sustain us. College savings or retirement savings consist of pretty much just the house; which will likely be liquidated before those times come anyway.
Yes, I feel like a lucky ducky.
Just a reminder: in 3rd world countries only the managerial class has a middle class standard of living. Individual contributors with degrees are paid Lucky Ducky wages.
Barring WW3 or some other game changing world wide catastrophe, the squad is right.
Remove $100 billion a month in deficit funny money from the system and let’s see how much “recovery” is left.
I believe we are in the hiring squeeze phase of labor market recovery. An examination of the U.S. unemployment rate time series suggests that once recovery takes firm hold, the unemployment rate drops like a rock.
If history proves me correct, then the unemployment rate will drop steadily from now through at least November 2012.
And here is a casual long-term prediction, in which I put little faith, as I am throwing it out on a whim with no prior thought whatever:
In twenty years from now, we may see unemployment drop down to a fifty-year trough, comparable to the mid-1950s level, as Baby Boomers aging beyond the point of usefulness creates a shortage of workers relative to the amount of work that needs to get done.
Red, White and Blue Chips Archives
April 5, 2012, 9:42 a.m. EDT
CareerBuilder: The Q2 hiring outlook is improving
Job seekers have reason for hope as a new CareerBuilder survey finds growing demand from employers here in the second quarter. In fact, CareerBuilder’s President for North America, Brent Rasmussen, tells MarketWatch.com’s Steve Potisk the hiring outlook is closer to what we saw pre-recession.
walmart is looking for truck drivers.
Big Box*Mart is hiring greeters.
That’s my favorite job jab cartoon
“job jab”
Was that meant as a pun, or just a Freudian slip of the finger?
A serendipitous typo. I wish I had thought of it.
The beauty of serendipity is that it just happens without forethought.
My Wal Mart has greeters only part time now.
Well, I don’t have enough energy to do it full time anyway.
The Panama Canal is getting a big makeover. It will make it much easier/more efficient to get manufactured goods from the eastern edge of the Pacific to the east coast of the US. Should cut down on the need for long haul truckers and cross country rail, though local trucking will still be needed. Might even get some temp jobs to make the east coast ports better suited for the larger container ships.
how do you get stuff to walmarts within the interior of the country? a friend of mine drives truck and a lot of the times his return from walmarts to the coast are empty. real efficient system they have with diesel at 4.50.
Barge traffic from New Orleans up the Mississippi/Missouri/Ohio river systems could eliminate a lot of long haul trucking. Areas not served by the river systems, like the Mountain West are mostly low population.
Where I live, they are hiring car wash workers for $12hr.
Damn labor unions!
Funny…+1 goon…
Why do some Fed officials believe they need to invoke QE3 in order to keep mortgage rates low? It seems like a head fake that crashed the stock market would achieve the same result without risking inflation.
April 5, 2012, 10:02 a.m. EDT
30-year fixed-rate mortgage falls to 3.98%
By Amy Hoak
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Mixed signals about the health of the economy caused mortgage rates to move little this week, Freddie Mac’s chief economist said on Thursday. Average rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell slightly to 3.98% for the week ending April 5, down from 3.99% last week and 4.87% a year ago, according to Freddie’s weekly mortgage rate survey. Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.21%, down from 3.23% last week. Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 2.86%, down from 2.9% last week. And 1-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 2.78%, unchanged from last week.
Amy Hoak is a LIAR!
Figures don’t lie, but liars do figure.
But I note that the article merely cites a bunch of current mortgage rates — not much room there for spin.
Amy Hoak is Lawrence Yun’s personal fluffer. She needs to get fired from MarketWatch and receive a Singapore style caning
Larry (fun)Yun is goatse. Amy is the fluffer. What a lying pig she is.
Bernanke’s QE3 glasnost has market participants thoroughly confused.
Four Fed Regional Bank Presidents See Less Need for New Easing
By Joshua Zumbrun and Aki Ito - Apr 4, 2012 9:00 PM PT
Four Federal Reserve regional bank presidents who vote on monetary policy this year see less of a need for the Fed to spur the economy with new accommodation.
“The probability of needing to do additional stimulus is lower,” San Francisco Fed President John Williams told reporters yesterday. Cleveland’s Sandra Pianalto, Atlanta’s Dennis Lockhart and Richmond’s Jeffrey Lacker also spoke against additional accommodation this week, with Lacker saying yesterday he “was surprised a couple months ago at the probability market participants seemed to ascribe to further easing.”
The presidents’ comments echo the minutes of the Fed’s March 13 meeting, in which a “couple of” participants called for easing only “if the economy lost momentum” or if inflation fell below its 2 percent target. Fed officials will hold the main interest rate close to zero at least through 2014, a date “subject to revision in response to significant changes in the economic outlook,” according to the minutes released on April 3.
…
The Fed has fostered quite a cargo cult following among mortgage securities investors.
Market Reveals Resistance to Fed’s Latest View of QE3: Mortgages
Jody Shenn and Kathleen M. Howley
Thursday, April 5, 2012
April 5 (Bloomberg) — Ben S. Bernanke’s Federal Reserve signaled this week it isn’t ready to buy more bonds to stimulate the economy. Mortgage investors aren’t convinced.
Trading in the market for government-backed mortgage bonds is showing a 37 percent chance of a third round of so-called quantitative easing, or QE3, according to Credit Suisse Group AG calculations. While that’s declined from 40 percent last week, it’s up from 25 percent after the April 3 release of the minutes of the Fed’s monetary-policy panel meeting last month.
Stocks, commodities and bonds declined after the statement, which showed certain members support easing only “if the economy lost momentum.” Treasuries and mortgage securities pared losses yesterday with some investors speculating the Fed will eventually acquire more home-loan debt to bolster consumer spending and support a housing market the minutes described as “depressed.”
“Mortgages didn’t underperform in a truly meaningful fashion,” said Jason Callan, head of structured products at Columbia Management Investment Advisers LLC in Minneapolis, which oversees about $180 billion in fixed income. “The likelihood of QE was modestly diminished, particularly in terms of the April meeting, but that doesn’t take it off the table for later.”
After Fannie Mae’s 3.5 percent, 30-year mortgage securities underperformed similar-duration interest-rate swaps by 0.34 cent on the dollar on April 3, the most since October, the home-loan notes outperformed by 0.25 cent yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Bellwether to Buying
Trading in the $5.4 trillion market for so-called agency mortgage securities relative to fixed-income benchmarks such as Treasuries and interest-rate swaps is serving as a QE3 bellwether because any program may focus on home-loan bonds after Fed Chairman Bernanke sent a study to Congress in January that highlighted how housing is restraining the economic recovery.
The central bank acquired $2.3 trillion of bonds in two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 until June 2011, including $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage securities. In September it announced it would buy $400 billion of longer-term U.S. securities through June while selling an equal amount of shorter-term debt in its holdings, and start reinvesting proceeds from its housing debt back into the mortgage market.
The probability being assigned to QE3 is now “too high,” Credit Suisse analyst Mahesh Swaminathan in New York, said in an e-mail. After the Fed’s statement, his team recommended bets that mortgage bonds will underperform, based on the central bank’s “incrementally hawkish sentiment.”
…
Even the stock market seems to be confirming a U.S. economic recovery is firmly taking hold.
How does the case for QE3 work again?
April 5, 2012, 10:52 a.m. EDT
U.S. stocks clear losses to turn mildly higher
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks turned higher Thursday, with natural-resource companies leading the way. “The key data point today were claims, which were fine. This was the last input in our jobs model for tomorrow,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors, of the monthly jobs report slated for release Friday. Curbing a weekly decline, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA +0.02%) rose a point to 13,075.7. The S&P 500 (SPX +0.11%) gained more than a point to 1,400.30. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP +0.24%) rose 5.55 points to 3,073.64.
Look ma — no QE3!
April 5, 2012, 11:11 a.m. EDT
Treasury yields touch lowest in a week
Bond trading Friday could be ‘spastic’ after payrolls
By Deborah Levine, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices rose on Thursday, pushing yields down to their lowest levels in a week, as growing worries about Spain’s debt problems and Europe’s economic outlook revived interest in the relative safety of U.S. government debt.
…
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: Speaker phones suck. Do not use speaker phones unless absolutely necessary.
Thank you.
Wh d yo say tht?
Tell me about it. I have a lot of flexibiliy to work at home, but I always come in for meetings, because I can’t hear a damn thing over those aggravating Cisco brand conference room speaker phones when I’m at home.
Yeah, and Skype is even worse. I love having a conference call with all sorts of whistling going on. Especially when the person conducting the call acts all oblivious to it, while you can’t hear WTF he’s saying.
Our hospitals have undergone extensive renovations of the operating rooms. Still have the same crappy speakerphones thought. The total absence of voice clarity reminds me of adults in the Charlie Brown cartoons. WAH wah WAH WAH Wah. Imagine doctors trying to communicate important information this way.
Age of foreclosure
http://tinyurl.com/7et37jb (reuters slideshow)
Interesting I’m not sure I would bring a baby to a loan modification event though.
I’m not sure I would bring a baby to a…
Gallagher - The Baby
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=566ZbhL0zhY
I wonder if this would work in the U.S.? It would be pretty ironic if China succeeded in stimulating their economy by introducing competition into their banking sector, leaving the monopoly bank-dominated U.S. economy in the dust of free enterprise.
Wen Calls China Banks Too Powerful
By DAVID BARBOZA
Published: April 3, 2012
SHANGHAI — Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China said on Tuesday that the nation’s biggest state-run banks have too much power and ought to be broken up because they earn far too much money.
The remarks, delivered during a national radio address while the prime minister was traveling in southern China, were unusually bold and appeared to be a direct challenge to others in the nation’s Communist Party leadership to speed up reforms of the nation’s financial system.
According to China National Radio, Mr. Wen said: “Frankly, our banks make profits far too easily. Why? Because a small number of major banks occupy a monopoly position, meaning one can only go to them for loans and capital.”
“That’s why right now, as we’re dealing with the issue of getting private capital into the finance sector, essentially, that means we have to break up their monopoly,” he added.
Mr. Wen, who is expected to step down later this year as part of a once-in-a-decade leadership change, has been striking an increasingly vocal tone in recent months about political and economic reform and suggesting that vested interests in the Communist Party leadership were stubbornly protecting their hold on power and derailing his reform efforts.
Whether Mr. Wen has the political influence to force changes in the banking system is unclear. While he oversees the nation’s economic policy, many analysts say the Communist Party’s consensus method of ruling limits his ability to push through his own policies.
That is perhaps why Mr. Wen has begun to signal his frustration with the party about some major areas of politics and economics.
Eswar S. Prasad, a former International Monetary Fund official who teaches at Cornell University, said Tuesday that Mr. Wen’s remarks “reflect a growing consensus among reform-minded officials that breaking up the large banks may be an essential step to reduce their political influence and pave the way for broad, much-needed reforms to the financial system.”
…
You would think these guys would figure it out. Given the current incentives, everyone wants to be a financier/bankster.
Even without TBTF bailouts, why do something tough and risky like actually producing something and creating jobs to make a 2-3% profit, when you can sit around on your azz and make 10-15% as a bankster?
Until the incentives get rearranged somehow, don’t expect anything to change.
Clearly in the anger stage. This is a post from today’s neighborhood parent email group:”
“We’ve been searching for six months. I’m honestly hoping some idiot supervisor reads this.
You know why people leave San Francisco when they have families - because they can’t find a two or three bedroom apartment within reason or at all! Ok, maybe it’s my fault for having two cats and a baby, but our income is good and our credit is good but we can’t find anything in this city to rent. We get outbid, or our star sign isn’t right or something else ridiculous. In fact, our most recent rejection was courtesy of two people who wanted a child the same age as theirs (they weren’t even owners, they were the neighbors!).
New York is a better option than San Francisco these days. I’m sorry, but I saw listings in the Village for less than some of these overpriced rat traps in San Francisco are going for. I think I’ll give up the nice weather for better housing opportunities!”
I have a couple of friends who are those tech entrepreneurs that the Bay Area is so famous for.
One guy’s spent his entire working (and company-starting) career in Michigan. Other fellow? Well, Pennsylvania’s the state for him.
Neither has had trouble hiring good people.
Definitions of “good people” vary widely. Mine is probably closer to your friends’ than the average SV hiring manager.
I think I’ll give up the nice weather for better housing opportunities ??
Not me…I am a whimp when it comes to cold or muggy weather..Although I have never lived in the North East I have lived in the south and I would not live there if you gave me a house…I would not last a week in the north-east winter time…Hell, I start whining around here when it gets in the mid 50’s…
I think I’ll give up the nice weather for better housing opportunities ??
+1 It has been too cold outside (uncomfortable) since the beginning of last October, six f***ing months. However, I don’t feel inclined to ruin my credit and lose my security clearance attempting to buy a California home.
Complaining about SanFran housing prices is the equivalent of complaining about the Sun rising in the east every morning.
As you’ve said yourself, you can’t imagine living anywhere else. Neither can a few million other people.
I’d like to live five minutes from my job, but I can’t afford to buy/rent anything in that close. At least in an area where I won’t get ripped off every other week. So it looks like it’s going to be a 20-30 mile drive in from the boonies.
And now you see why the ‘burbs exist.
I gave up on the idea of living in SF 40 years ago.
Over-priced cities are rarely worth it.
Well… okay, never worth it.
Americans brace for next foreclosure wave
By Nick Carey | Reuters
…”a painful part two of the slump looks set to unfold: Many more U.S. homeowners face the prospect of losing their homes this year as banks pick up the pace of foreclosures.
“We are right back where we were two years ago. I would put money on 2012 being a bigger year for foreclosures than 2010,” said Mark Seifert, executive director of Empowering & Strengthening Ohio’s People (ESOP), a counseling group with 10 offices in Ohio.
“Last year was an anomaly, and not in a good way,” he said.”
…”Mortgage servicing provider Lender Processing Services reported in early March that U.S. foreclosure starts jumped 28 percent in January.
More conclusive national data is not yet available. But watchdog group, 4closurefraud.org which helped uncover the “robo-signing” scandal, says it has turned up evidence of a large rise in new foreclosures between March 1 and 24 by three big banks in Palm Beach County in Florida, one of the states hit hardest by the housing crash
Although foreclosure starts were 50 percent or more lower than for the same period in 2010, those begun by Deutsche Bank were up 47 percent from 2011. Those of Wells Fargo’s rose 68 percent and Bank of America’s, including BAC Home Loans Servicing, jumped nearly seven-fold — 251 starts versus 37 in the same period in 2011. Bank of America said it does not comment on data provided by other sources. Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank did not comment.
Housing experts say localized warning signs of a new wave of foreclosure are likely to be replicated across much of the United States.”
I can’t help thinking that Tucson’s current crop of “buy it to rent out” in-VEST-ors will be caught up in this wave. When the much-ballyhooed appreciate doesn’t happen, and when they learn about what a headache landlording can be, they’ll be walking away from their in-VEST-ment houses in droves.
If anyone has any insights to the implications of this news, enquiring minds want to know.
The Financial Times dot com
From GLOBAL ECONOMY 7:32pm
Architect of Fed’s ‘Operation Twist’ quits
Brian Sack to leave at conclusion of bond-buying programme
Fed steps back from further easing
Inside Business Pretending the world is fixed is a gamble
My guess is he has a nice high paying job at GS.
Facebook to list in Nasdaq as FB. I am sure most of you were waiting on that news……
Will the HBB need a new moniker for FB (home buyers who got stucco)?
oh yeah just like groupon and zenga.
I really think this has become the modern way to rob people.
It has been for quite a while now, I think.
Google+ needs to jump on their users while FB brings the hammer down with its Timeline crap.
Good idea, but I don’t think it’s enough to get people to move.
Going to school in DFW next week…..
God, I hate Dallas………
It’s not as bad as Houston or San Antonio.
I didn’t like Houston at all but I thought SA was better than Dallas.
“God, I hate Dallas………”
Dallas? Dallas Alice?
Willin’ Lyrics - Little Feat
I been warped by the rain, driven by the snow
I’m drunk and dirty don’t ya know, and I’m still, willin’
Out on the road late at night,
Seen my pretty Alice in every head light
Alice, Dallas Alice
I’ve been from Tuscon to Tucumcari
Tehachapi to Tonapah
Driven every kind of rig that’s ever been made
Driven the back roads so I wouldn’t get weighed
And if you give me: weed, whites, and wine, and you show me a sign
I’ll be willin’, to be movin’
I’ve been kicked by the wind, robbed by the sleet
Had my head stoved in, but I’m still on my feet and I’m still… willin’
Now I smuggled some smokes and folks from Mexico
baked by the sun, every time I go to Mexico, and I’m still
And I been from Tuscon to Tucumcari
Tehachapi to Tonapah
Driven every kind of rig that’s ever been made
Driven the back roads so I wouldn’t get weighed
And if you give me: weed, whites, and wine
and you show me a sign
I’ll be willin’, to be movin
“DFW”
Watch out for flying tractor trailers.
Guy I know got one offer on his house last year. The financing fell thru, so he decided to re-offer it this spring.
Went on the market last week. Two offers on the first day, one close to asking price, he accepted it. Now to see if the financing works out……..
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Alcoa Inc (NYS:AA - News), the U.S. aluminum giant, plans to cut alumina production in the Atlantic region by 4 percent, becoming the first producer to take measures aimed at reducing oversupply that has lowered prices to around $300 per tonne.
The move follows a slump in prices of alumina, an intermediate ingredient in aluminum production, to levels at which many of the world’s higher-cost refiners are unprofitable.
Things that make you go hmmm?? Boombing economy yet aluminum prices are falling and dry bulk shipping costs have crashed.
Is that a booming or bombing economy?
Bombing is booming though.
thats a green shoot for sure. stock will pop on the news.
CEOs of other, lesser industries are subject to the rule of law (sort of). Wouldn’t it be nice if there were a central Technology Authority which could look out for the tech industry like the Fed does for the banks? “But you don’t understand! The banks are the very cornerstone our economy! Of the very existence of mankind! If we stopped showering rose petals before their executive teams it would lead to GLOBAL THERMONUCLEAR APOCALYPSE! Or something.”
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Former Tyco executive Dennis Kozlowski was denied parole Thursday, according to a spokesman for the New York State Department of Corrections.
“Your discretionary release, at this time,” the decision said, would not be “compatible with the welfare of society at large, and would tend to deprecate the seriousness” of the offenses and “undermine respect for the law.”
Oh, I think there’s a lot more going on out there that undermines respect for the law
http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/05/news/companies/kozlowski-tyco-parole/
JetBlue undercuts the old paradigm airlines, buying brand new airplanes with all the bells and whistles, with near zero percent loans.
One thing about new airplanes. They can generate revenue for six years, with minimal maintenance bills, before the “C” checks start coming due.
Of course, when you can’t flip them for newer airplanes, all of that maintenance you weren’t planning on doing really starts hitting the bottom line……
http://tinyurl.com/csmyyl5
Apparently not all Fed governors think “stabilizing” asset prices is the way to deal with bubbles.
From a Fall 2002 speech:
Asset-Price “Bubbles” and Monetary Policy
…
Understandably, as a society, we would like to find ways to mitigate the potential instabilities associated with asset-price booms and busts. Monetary policy is not a useful tool for achieving this objective, however. Even putting aside the great difficulty of identifying bubbles in asset prices, monetary policy cannot be directed finely enough to guide asset prices without risking severe collateral damage to the economy.
A far better approach, I believe, is to use micro-level policies to reduce the incidence of bubbles and to protect the financial system against their effects. I have already mentioned a variety of possible measures, including supervisory action to ensure capital adequacy in the banking system, stress-testing of portfolios, increased transparency in accounting and disclosure practices, improved financial literacy, greater care in the process of financial liberalization, and a willingness to play the role of lender of last resort when needed. Although eliminating volatility from the economy and the financial markets will never be possible, we should be able to moderate it without sacrificing the enormous strengths of our free-market system.
This sounds eminently reasonable:
1) Force lenders to retain repayment risk.
2) Separate deposits from bank betting operations.
Simple. Highly effective. 1) above will stop the avalanche of bad loans. 2) above will allow banks / other financial institutions to fail if they get too “innovative”.
This stuff is not rocket science. But, as Upton Sinclair pointed out, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
3) Break up Megabank, Inc into small, competitive, non-systemically-risky pieces, along the lines suggested by the Chinese premier.
China’s premier calls for breaking bank monopolies
By JOE McDONALD, AP Business Writer – 1 day ago
BEIJING (AP) — Premier Wen Jiabao, China’s top economic official, says its state-owned banks are monopolies that must be broken up, acknowledging mounting economic and political pressure to reform an industry whose vast profits are fueling public anger.
Wen’s comments Tuesday suggest Beijing sees a growing political danger from its failure to carry out long-promised reforms of state banks, which pay minimal interest on deposits and made tens of billions of dollars in profit last year. Public resentment has risen as China’s rapid economic growth slows and fears of job losses rise.
Speaking Tuesday to businesspeople, Wen said Beijing has launched reforms aimed at serving entrepreneurs better by opening up banking to private investors, China National Radio reported. It gave no indication of a possible timeline for further reforms.
“Our banks make money too easily. Why? Because a small number of big banks have monopoly status,” Wen said, according to a transcript on the CNR website. “To allow private capital to flow into finance, basically, we need to break the monopoly.”
Wen spoke during a visit to Fujian province in the southeast, a center for export-driven private enterprise. The government announced last week it will launch a pilot project to expand private lending in Wenzhou in neighboring Zhejiang province after a wave of defaults on underground lending that supported businesses there.
“I think those elements in Wenzhou that succeed need to be expanded nationwide and can immediately be introduced nationwide,” Wen said, according to the transcript.
Communist leaders have long used Chinese banks to subsidize state industry, shifting wealth from savers to politically favored companies. Entrepreneurs produce most of China’s new jobs and wealth but get only a small percentage of bank loans.
That has fueled resentment, especially as the “big four” major state-owned commercial banks, which account for about half of deposits, report record profits.
China’s biggest lender, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., earned $33.1 billion in 2011, ranking it among the world’s most profitable companies. Other major banks — Bank of China Ltd., Construction Bank of China Ltd. and Agriculture Bank of China Ltd. — reported similar windfalls.
The government sets deposit and minimum lending rates, giving banks a guaranteed margin of about 3.5 percent. It has begun allowing lenders to charge more for some commercial loans, which has increased profit margins still further.
The World Bank and the Chinese government’s own researchers have added to calls for reform, warning economic growth could slow sharply unless banks become more efficient and lend more to support the dynamic private sector.
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If this works in Communist China, is there any chance it would also work here in the U.S.A.?
Ignore China gloomsters; the Chinese stock and real estate markets always go up, just as do U.S. markets.
ASIA ECONOMIES
China doomsayer sees crash coming
Not everyone is convinced China will escape its current slowdown unharmed. Asianomics’ Jim Walker says China’s consumption boom is ending, and his contrarian view calls for no growth — or even a contraction — in the economy.