April 12, 2012

Buy Now While You Can

The Chicago Tribune reports from Illinois. “Ken Neumann is back building houses in the Chicago area, but he’s no longer focused on constructing thousands of homes in subdivisions for entry-level buyers. Instead, he’s tearing down homes in long-established communities and building houses for a more discerning, upscale clientele. There’s one other difference: Neumann Homes Inc., a name synonymous with the spectacular rise and fall of Chicago’s home-building market, is nowhere to be seen. Instead, Neumann is operating under the Greenscape Homes brand.”

“On Nov. 1, 2007, Neumann, which also had operations in Wisconsin and Colorado, sought reorganization under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, owing at least $235.6 million to eight banks, suppliers and contractors, and an additional $137 million to its largest unsecured creditors, according to court documents. Ken Neumann agreed to pay $1.125 million to settle certain disputes. Neumann set his sights on teardowns in established west suburban communities, constructing in their place semicustom homes under the Greenscape Homes name and pricing most of them from the mid-$400,000 range to more than $700,000.”

“He opted not to use the Neumann name while the bankruptcy case continued but said, ‘I’m not ashamed of being Ken Neumann.’”

The Chicago Sun Times in Illinois. “For homeowners planning to sell this year, condolences are in order. With the median price hitting a new low since its 2007 peak, Realtors say a big chunk of today’s sellers are in the ‘have-to’ camp as the home buying season is set to shift into higher gear. For home buyers, it remains a dream market.”

“Twenty-five-year-old Sandra Becerra closed in February on a three-bedroom, 1½-bath tri-level home in Burbank she snapped up for $145,000. She said it originally listed for $220,000 two years ago. She put 5 percent down and got a 30-year, fixed-rate FHA mortgage with a 3.875 percent interest rate. ‘I went for it because I just thought it was such a great deal. I didn’t really want to pass it up,’ Becerra said.”

Minnesota Public Radio News. “Homes sales are heating up this spring in the Twin Cities as buyers compete over a tight inventory of homes. Anna, 32, and Evan, 29, want something bigger their family can grow into. But finding what they want in their price range of $250,000 to $450,000 has been tougher than they expected. They want to get into a home by the beginning of next year. They hope it doesn’t take that long, Anna said. ‘Right now, everyone knows it’s a good time to buy with the historically low mortgage rate and the ten-year low housing prices,’ she said.”

“Sally Rousse, 48, didn’t have to update her home. But she did lower the price by almost $150,000 to just over $700,000 since she first tried to sell last year. When the house didn’t sell after a few months, Rousse took it off the market. The market in Rousse’s price range near the Minneapolis lakes is slow and prices have dropped significantly. She needs to sell her house this year to cut her family’s expenses. ‘I guess I felt I took it personally at first. I thought ‘Why don’t they like my house.’ and I didn’t really understand the market and how it works, and how people wait and wait and wait and see what’ll happen and if you’ll drop the price,’ Rousse said. ‘Every month that we stay here is more money that we are spending that we could be saving for things that we want to do,’ she said.”

The Journal Sentinel in Wisconsin. “Sales of existing homes in metro Milwaukee rose almost 23% in the first quarter, but prices continued to slide, data shows. Economist Brian Jacobsen said the southeast region of the state ’seems to be following the general pattern for the nation of slightly more sales, but prices going nowhere fast. There’s likely going to continue to be a shift in potential homeowners preferring to rent than buy, unless they can get a great bargain,’ said Jacobsen, ‘Job insecurity is a major impediment to buying a home. Low interest rates aren’t enough to entice buyers into the market. Jobs are key.’”

“A separate report showed that permits to construct new homes rose 8.8% in Wisconsin’s biggest population centers in the first quarter of 2012. ‘There are a number of builders that are putting up spec homes right now,’ said Dominic Collar of Oshkosh-based MTD.”

The Toledo Blade in Ohio. “Despite a few slightly positive statistics and anecdotes of improving sales, local real estate agents and national data tracking firms say that five years into the nation’s housing crisis the Toledo area’s foreclosure problem remains as bad as ever. ‘I think there’s still a lot of them in the pipeline that we haven’t seen and which won’t come onto the market until maybe after the election. There could be political reasons why we maybe aren’t seeing them yet,’ said Glennis Przymierski, a foreclosure specialist with the Danberry Realtors. ‘I think there’s a lot of homes in limbo right now that people are trying to sell for more than they can get and eventually they are going to end up in foreclosure.’”

“The picture looks slightly better in Wood County, which has seen numerous foreclosure cases in its Perrysburg subdivisions. Foreclosure cases there decreased by 6 percent through the first three months to 127 cases, according to Cindy Hofner, the county clerk of courts. But the court’s work load hasn’t gotten any lighter. ‘It is slowing a bit as far as new cases, but we are still dealing with foreclosures from several years ago,’ she said.’”

The Herald Bulletin in Indiana. “Stephen Kowell was ready to move out of his Chesterfield home, abandoning it and letting it go into foreclosure. Kowell said he is no longer able to keep up with his house payments. He attended Occupy Anderson’s ‘Occupy Your American Dream’ foreclosure information session to learn about his options. By the time it was over, Kowell knew that leaving his home wasn’t the best option. ‘It feels less overwhelming,’ he said. ‘The seminar was well worth it. Now I don’t feel like I’m alone. I understand things.’”

“About a dozen people attended the session. Anderson real estate agent Helen Wean, a facilitator with Occupy Anderson, said that with the hundreds of abandoned homes throughout the city, she expected to see a bigger turnout. ‘I guess that once you have walked away from your house, you have given up,’ Wean said.”

The Columbia Daily Tribune in Missouri. “Pam Stephenson suspects she owes more on her home than it’s worth. So Stephenson, who purchased her Boone County home about nine years ago, made the trip to the Boone County Government Center yesterday to hear whether she could get any help from the programs set up after a settlement between five of the nation’s largest banks, 49 states and the federal government.”

“Doug Ommen, the division chief of the Missouri Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division, spoke to eight people who attended. Ommen’s presentation also detailed shortfalls in the settlement. Because banks often sell the loans they make to other investors, they don’t always hold the loan they service. Homeowners whose loan no longer is owned by one of the five banks are out of luck ‘There are a huge number of people out there … who may not be able to benefit from that,’ Ommen said.”

“For Stephenson, who wanted to know whether her home was underwater, Ommen couldn’t help her because the appraisal parameters of the settlement still are being finalized. ‘I didn’t get a clear answer,’ Stephenson said.”

The Kansas City Star. “The 50th Spring Parade of Homes kicks off this weekend, and while home building activity is improving, it’s leaden compared with the golden years, when more than 10,000 homes were built each year in much of the last decade. But now many Kansas City area builders and others believe the pendulum has swung too far, with an average of only 2,700 homes going up the last four years. Some predict there will be a shortage of new speculative or ’spec’ homes to choose from.”

“Fifty years ago, the average home on the Spring Parade had three bedrooms, one and a half bathrooms, a two-car garage and cost about $20,000, according to the Builders Association. This year, the average price is $402,750, and the house has four bedrooms, three and a half baths and a three-car garage. Lending standards also were tighter. Saul Ellis, a former home builder who moved on to develop some of Johnson County’s more high-end subdivisions, said that in the mid-1960s, a buyer had to put 20 percent down and show the bank an income level four and a half times the monthly payment.”

“But after many years of getting bigger, the average new home is 15 to 20 percent smaller than previously. Dan Whitney, a housing consultant at Landmarketing Inc. said some of the downsizing is in response to the housing crisis. ‘People are adjusting,’ he said. ‘The ‘McMansion’ isn’t over, but the McMansion is smaller.’”

From KCTV 5 Kansas City. “Sally Moore with Keller Williams Eastland Partners says now is the time to buy. Moore said she is about to close on six brand-new homes in her community, which is more than double the number of homes she sold last year at this time. Moore says what people are seeing on TV could make the market change sooner than they might expect. ‘Now when you turn on the news, instead of all the down reports on the housing market, the economy, the unemployment rate, things are turning more positive. People listen to that,’ Moore said.”

“Builder Kevin Stallings says with the up-tick in the housing market here in the metro area, people need to act fast before prices continue to rise. He noted interest rates, too, are slowly creeping upwards. ‘We don’t get six-month price locks, we get month-to-month at this point. This is appliances, this is light fixtures, drywall, lumber, asphalt, shingles. We get month-to-month locks, that is it. It has never been like that, and every month as the economy comes back, they’re raising their prices so we have to pass it on to the consumer. So buy now while you can,’ Stallings said.”




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50 Comments »

Comment by Blue Skye
2012-04-12 06:26:55

“every month as the economy comes back, they’re raising their prices so we have to pass it on to the consumer. So buy now while you can”

Rising prices are not necessarily proof that the economy is in the process of coming back. What will they point to if the oil price ponzi game crashes?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2012-04-12 06:57:03

“For homeowners planning to sell this year, condolences are in order. With the median price hitting a new low since its 2007 peak, Realtors say a big chunk of today’s sellers are in the ‘have-to’ camp as the home buying season is set to shift into higher gear. For home buyers, it remains a dream market.”

It’s a dream market, yet there is precious little inventory at attractive prices available for anyone except for members of the 1% club, who (presumably) are already comfortably housed.

It seems to me like more of a buyer’s conundrum than a dream market, but then I am a professed bear.

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-04-12 07:09:57

‘Twenty-five-year-old Sandra Becerra closed in February on a three-bedroom, 1½-bath tri-level home in Burbank she snapped up for $145,000. She said it originally listed for $220,000 two years ago. She put 5 percent down and got a 30-year, fixed-rate FHA mortgage ‘I just thought it was such a great deal. I didn’t really want to pass it up,’ Becerra said.’

She’ll be 55 when it’s paid off and I’m sure she won’t want to move in that time. Of course, when she’s 55 going up and down those three levels won’t be so easy. This ‘it originally listed for $220,000′ stuff is interesting, cuz we’ve often heard that it doesn’t matter what it sold for in the past.

‘The market in Rousse’s price range near the Minneapolis lakes is slow and prices have dropped significantly. She needs to sell her house this year to cut her family’s expenses. ‘I guess I felt I took it personally at first. I thought ‘Why don’t they like my house.’ and I didn’t really understand the market and how it works, and how people wait and wait and wait and see what’ll happen and if you’ll drop the price’

I guess we’ve got a concurrent ‘buy now while you can’ and a ‘get out while you can’ market.

Comment by 2banana
2012-04-12 07:34:36

It just might be a great deal. But we need more info beside how much the price has fallen from the bubble peak.

How is the neighborhood?
Is the house in good condition?
Does it have low property taxes?
How much does a similar house rent for?
Etc.

‘I just thought it was such a great deal. I didn’t really want to pass it up,’ Becerra said.’

Comment by Al
2012-04-12 08:13:13

My first impression at seeing $145,000 was “how could you go wrong?” Sure it might be a bit overpriced but not too bad. However, with closing costs the mortgage is probably around $140,000 so she should have a family income of around $45,000 to carry it. While $45k isn’t big bucks, in some areas it’s probably above the median.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2012-04-12 08:21:55

She’s 25 years old.

 
Comment by Pete
2012-04-12 11:16:59

“She’s 25 years old.”

From that, I gather loans aren’t as hard to get as that article posted here yesterday implied. I mean, how does a 25-year old get a flawless credit score?

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-04-12 14:38:12

She’s 25 years old.

When I was 25, I was trying my hardest to get up and out of poverty. Only job I could find was working part-time as a minimum wage dishwasher. No benefits. Next job I had was as a cashier and shelf stocker for a slightly better wage. Still no benefits.

So, needless to say, I wasn’t in the market to buy a house.

 
Comment by SV guy
2012-04-12 16:50:11

I had purchased my first place at 24 years old for more money than she paid. It took a whole lot of discipline to make it for the first few years.

But not at all impossible.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-04-12 17:50:28

“Does it have low property taxes?”

Unless there is a Mello-Roos assessment her property tax should be $1450 per year.

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Comment by oxide
2012-04-12 09:19:52

55 isn’t an invalid, Ben. Geesh.

And three levels could very well be a split level, so she would only have to climb half a staircase.

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-04-12 09:32:55

How many 25 YOs have you known that bought a house? What are the chances she won’t move? I don’t understand the reasoning for her to buy, except that it was a ‘great deal’. Can’t pass up a bargain?

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Comment by Carl Morris
2012-04-12 09:40:24

Plus houses always go up.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-04-12 12:43:58

“How many 25 YOs have you known that bought a house…”

Don’t forget, it’s the savvy under-30 set that “gets” the
logic of home ownership in a way the older generation fails to understand.

Planning to Retire
Is Homeownership the Best Long-Term Investment?
April 20, 2011

Most adults (81 percent) agree that buying a home is the best long-term investment a person can make, according a Pew Research Center survey of 2,142 adults released this month. But confidence in homeownership as a path to prosperity is declining. The number of people who strongly agree that homeownership is the best investment a person can make has declined from 49 percent in 1991 to 37 percent in 2011.

Most homeowners are happy with their choice. Some 76 percent of homeowners agree that they would buy their present house again, despite the fact that 47 percent say their house is now worth less than it was in December 2007. Less than a quarter (24 percent) of renters rent by choice. Most people who rent apartments say they rent as a result of life circumstances (75 percent) and would like to buy a house at some point in the future (81 percent).

Despite falling home prices, young people continue to be priced out of the housing market. Most Americans (66 percent) say that homeownership is unaffordable for young adults in their 20s and 30s. Only 15 percent of people under 30 own a home. The rest rent (46 percent), live with their parents (27 percent), or reside in a college dorm (6 percent). However, a majority of people 30 and over (70 percent) say they own their own home.

 
 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2012-04-12 13:00:39

Hey Oxy……

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-04-12 12:39:28

“she snapped up”

Primary evidence the bubble lives: People are still ’snapping up’ homes.

You can be sure this language will die off with the bubble, as it is distasteful and emblematic of a mania in progress.

 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2012-04-12 07:00:18

“[H]e’s tearing down homes in long-established communities and building houses for a more discerning, upscale clientele.”
_______________________________/

It was with regret that I returned from an extended period out of the country to find that this practice has resumed in my neighborhood. One house in particular, an old but attractive 1200-square-foot place surrounded by houses of similar size, is being replaced by a towering 4000-square-foot pressboard rectangle. One of the great oaks in the front was cut down to effectuate this crime.

As for the quotes in these articles, it’s apparent to me that this country moved heaven and earth to preserve the FIRE sector so that it might scam us again. We’re led by fools, we’ve learned nothing, and we are going to get what we deserve.

Comment by scdave
2012-04-12 07:28:18

One of the great oaks in the front was cut down to effectuate this
crime ??

Where are you located ??

Comment by snake charmer
2012-04-12 07:41:37

Tampa. The builder posted the required notice prior to cutting down the tree, but I can’t say whether anyone objected.

Comment by ahansen
2012-04-12 22:48:47

I hope the root system comes back to haunt it.

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Comment by scdave
2012-04-12 08:04:36

Those trees are protected here in California…They call them “Heritage Trees”…If the tree obstructs the building envelope that you are proposing planning departments will require you to move it with a professional large tree moving company and the tree be monitored by an arborists for the length of time necessary to conclude the tree can manage on its own…

Its an amazing thing to watch really…I just watched one being moved a few months ago…It was big, but not the biggest I have seen moved…This Oak was probably a 3 foot caliper 4 foot off the ground…To much to get into in how they move it but it takes a crane (sometimes two) and the cost can easily exceed $100,000. per tree…

If you can google-map a shopping center in 95054 called Rivermark and look at the satellite view, there are about a 1/2 dozen “big” oaks that were moved to accommodate that shopping center…Take a look…

Comment by Montana
2012-04-12 09:02:03

…and they survive this transplantation? That amazes me. I thought it was 50/50 they die.

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Comment by scdave
2012-04-12 10:52:50

Yes they do survive but its a tedious process with a lot of heavy equipment and monitoring like its in intensive care….

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Comment by SV guy
2012-04-12 16:53:16

The Oak trees at Stanford are numbered and if you were to damage one during construction it would be the end of your experience on ‘The Farm’.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2012-04-12 08:17:02

IMO this is playing a bigger role than most realize:

‘I think there’s still a lot of them in the pipeline that we haven’t seen and which won’t come onto the market until maybe after the election. There could be political reasons why we maybe aren’t seeing them yet,’ said Glennis Przymierski’

I guess people are numb to this, but I still think this is nuts:

‘This year, the average price is $402,750, and the house has four bedrooms, three and a half baths and a three-car garage.’

Of course, some here would say, ‘but it’s got a view of the so-and-so mountains…

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-04-12 10:01:58

This year, the average price is $402,750,….’

Of course, some here would say, ‘but it’s got a view of the so-and-so mountains…

Kansas City homes with mountain views should command a premium price. :)

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-04-12 10:07:29

I’ve never been there, but I grew up on the plains. So maybe we could say, ‘it’s got a great view of the sun and the moon’, or ‘the sunsets are fantastic’. I love this $400,000 house!

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Comment by Markab
2012-04-12 13:14:40

I live in Kansas City now, after having lived in California for the previous nine years. It certainly is not as cheap as you’d expect it to be. I live on the Kansas side (Johnson County), and there are lots of homes in the $600K+ range. Starter homes are about $200K. There are A LOT of foreclosures…many are actually abandoned homes that the banks have held for several years. These will eventually get onto the market for half the neighbors’ price.

Even though housing prices didn’t increase much (relatively speaking) during the boom, the bust seems to have come later & surprisingly large here (many homes are down to 1990s or earlier pricing).

 
Comment by scdave
2012-04-12 13:53:34

and there are lots of homes in the $600K+ ??

So, give the board here a brief description of what a $600k + house would be like in Johnson County…

 
Comment by Markab
2012-04-12 14:20:06

Upper-middle class for sure; typically a stone and stucco house. Perhaps 3,500 square feet, 4/5 Beds, 3 Baths. Fairly small (about .25 acre) lot. However very generic looking…cookie-cutter and bland. But there are lots of them, especially in south Overland Park, Leawood, and Mission Hills. Looking at the MLS today, there are 317 such houses for sale right now.

Much of this is because incomes are relatively high here. Household income in this county (approx 550,000 people) is somewhere north of $80,000, with many of the townships above $120,000. A lot of the draw is also due to the public school system, which by certain measures, is in the top 1% nationwide (national merit finalists, etc.). Not exactly what you’d think of in Kansas. But there is considerable wealth here. For me, it isn’t the number of $1M homes here that is odd, but rather that it still takes $200K to buy an old, average starter home here. So, it is significantly more expensive than anywhere in the Central Valley (including Sacramento) but obviously far less expensive than the central coast or coastal southern California.

 
Comment by Markab
2012-04-12 14:25:54

Oh, and the highest price home on the MLS right now in Johnson county is $11.9M. 7 Bedrooms but only 1.9 acres.

 
Comment by scdave
2012-04-12 14:37:52

Interesting…I would have thought the lots would be bigger than 10,000 feet though…Thanks for sharing…

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-04-12 15:31:41

Starter homes are about $200K

But you can still find 2br, 1bth, 900 sq foot houses in Johnson County for around 110K (that rent for about $850). Here’s a whole street of older ones in Overland Park Kansas.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7720-Conser-St-Overland-Park-KS-66204/75656113_zpid/

 
Comment by Markab
2012-04-12 16:04:29

Very true. While that isn’t the “hood,” since all neighborhoods are pretty safe; it would certainly be the poorest of the area. But yeah, 2br or even some 3br homes in poor shape can be had for under $150K.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Claudius Maximus
2012-04-12 08:26:54

‘Now when you turn on the news, instead of all the down reports on the housing market, the economy, the unemployment rate, things are turning more positive. People listen to that,’ Moore said.”

Hmmm…new doses of hopium being doled out. If all of these things are true why is the idea of QE3 still floating around? Why is the job marketing participation rate shrinking? Why are the banks still rationing out their REO inventory? And finally where is the fuel for a new run up without NINJA loans? Oh and Realtors are liars.

Comment by Posers
2012-04-12 09:43:40

“New doses of hopium”

It’s an election year, with the MSM heavily favoring one side.

January, 2013 here we come!

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-04-12 10:03:51

It’s an election year, with the MSM heavily favoring one side.

The least nutjob side I hope.

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-04-12 10:55:01

Here’s the problem with this thinking. The other ’side’ then sets up their media to counter the bias, and all we end up with is spin. And people wonder why nothing ever gets fixed.

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Comment by Posers
2012-04-12 12:11:19

Precisely, which is why I keep repeating “January, 2013.”

As we all know, the rest of 2012 is mainly smoke and mirrors. We’ll see the extent to which things get worse next year - once taxes escalate markedly, once write-offs are cut, once the Feds cut $1.2T from the expenditures side (supposedly).

Things could be A LOT worse this time next year. We’ll see, I guess.

 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2012-04-12 19:22:34

Get worse or get better. I don’t care but this stasis must end.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Realtors Are Liars®
2012-04-12 13:04:06

Yes Claudius….. Realtors Are Liars….. to the maximus.

 
 
Comment by wittbelle
2012-04-12 08:40:08

“I’m not ashamed of being Ken Neuman.” Why would you be? You are a sociopath? Sociopaths can kill people and not be ashamed. And you haven’t killed anyone, have you, Ken?

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-04-12 08:52:33

They were one of the biggest flame-outs in the region. How does this happen?

‘owing at least $235.6 million to eight banks, suppliers and contractors, and an additional $137 million to its largest unsecured creditors, according to court documents. Ken Neumann agreed to pay $1.125 million’

Comment by wittbelle
2012-04-12 10:38:57

I have never been able to figure that out. When I used to collect bills for a living, it always frustrated the cr@ap out of me when I would discover an active corporation behind a large debt. They are absolutely protected against any personal liability. It’s one of the biggest loopholes out there. I do know one thing. If I were the IRS, I would get some forensic accountants on that guy’s tax returns and pronto. “A dirty stick makes everyone who touches it dirty.”

 
Comment by Al
2012-04-12 11:48:48

And how does Kenny get more money? Maybe anyone named Kenny can die and come back to life repeately.

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2012-04-12 09:24:14

“For Stephenson, who wanted to know whether her home was underwater, Ommen couldn’t help her

…but Zillow could! :grin:

 
Comment by BetterRenter
2012-04-12 15:06:54

Things must be highly delusional in Colorado. A friend of mine’s adult daughter is trying to buy (i.e. rent money to buy) a house in Littleton, and of course she and her BF wouldn’t be caught dead in a neighborhood like she grew up in. So they’re looking at houses in the $280K-$300K range, and I assure you they make less than 1/3rd of that in combined income. But here’s the skinny: They bid on a house a short while ago, and they lost out to another bidder, so they were told. Soon enough the house came back onto the market; the realtor said that the winning bidder failed to qualify at the bank. So they bid again… and the owner responded with a higher price than in the first bidding round! Argh.

I greatly fear the couple will take the offer; they have the stink of people who want to believe it’s all about the house and the lifestyle, not about the inherent economics of the act.

Comment by Carl Morris
2012-04-12 15:42:05

Things must be highly delusional in Colorado.

I believe it is. While Paladin makes his case for why Sacramento has dropped far enough I’m still waiting for a drop.

Comment by Young Deezy
2012-04-12 16:06:21

The only thing keeping Sacramento home values afloat is the influx of specuvestors from the Bay area/China/Canada. Take that away and sales numbers plummet and values go with them.

I think I’m about done house hunting, I’m not going to compete with these people chasing ROI via rental income/flipping. Time to go find a nice(r) place to rent.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-04-12 17:57:10

“Things must be highly delusional in Colorado.”

In certain “desirable” neighborhoods, they most certainly are. On Colfax Ave, not so much.

 
 
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