Bits Bucket for April 14, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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I tagged this theme in weekend suggestions late in the day. Thought I’d port it to today.
New York City rents still are rising. This month seeing the highest prices in history. Not a joke. Numerous reports. Couple examples
http://www.amny.com/urbanite-1.812039/manhattan-rent-prices-rise-to-an-all-time-high-report-1.3655733
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2012/04/12/report-manhattan-rents-hit-all-time-high-of-3418-per-month/
http://www.newsday.com/classifieds/real-estate/manhattan-rents-reach-all-time-high-1.3655919
Housing bubble started to pop (we seem to believe) around late 2005. Certainly significant national economic hits have happened since then. We do, a bit, sneer at “my location is different” comments, with some merit, as often myths of “all real estate is local” have been well trumped by “all credit is national/international”.
Still, “location anomalies” occur, it seems.
Manhattan still shows gross bubble effects, never mind sales prices having more than tripled since 1997 and having shown arguably minimal softening the last couple years, cost of ownership still dwarfs cost of renting and ratio of median sales price to median family income (with median sales price generally for a one or small two bedroom place) is grossly high, I’d guess > 6 to 1.
There are caveats. Has the median income thing been controlled just for those working in city (many commute) or is it actually the median for those living here? Dunno.
But, two key hallmarks of bubble-hood– price to income and own vs rent cost– still seem grossly bubbly here.
Example. a $4900 full-service-building monthly rental at about $40/sqft/month likely would cost about $1,400,000 to buy, with monthly tax/maintenance running at $2k or so in addition to mortgage cost. at 3.9% (can one get that on a “giant”) even with $200,000 down, this gives a $7600 payment. With nothing down (yeah, right), payment around $8,600 per month. As to risk… don’t need a price crash, but even a 2% drop per year in value (inevitable… right) causes an additional ~$2500/month value hit, making a potential $11k/month cost to own vs $4900 rent, never mind repairs n’ such. And, the full service rental buildings do allow painting, so even as lowly renter, I can have pretty walls.
So, I’m in town in which the cost to “own” can be– for example– $8600-11,000 per month vs a $4900 rental. Very bubbly.
And, yeah, there are prior threads on NYC, but then there are prior threads on many things, and the subject still has merit.
And, yeah, when I posted yesterday, the “loudest” answer was snark about choosing to bear the costs of NYC. Not the point. There are bazillionaires out there for whom cost does not matter and there are folks scraping buy and the whole spectrum makes life choices. I’m not writing to get input as to whether I should live in a cheaper town. That’s a personal economic choice.
I am curious about views of the economics of the Manhattan housing market, in context of the typical memes of housing bubbleness.
Yeah, all that Wall Street and QE money goes through NY, but is that enough to prop up hundreds of thousands of apartments?
Are some places actually… different? Different either in quality or just in time coures?
How can a town with ostensible $80k median income sustain $600k entry level one bedroom apartment prices? If there has been a bit of easing of prices the last year or two (keeping in mind prices more than tripled since 1997), when does the trivial softening become a significant. There are other nice and expensive cities in the USA. San Fran, Boston, Chicago and such seem to be taking their hits.
And, meanwhile, in midst of this, Manhattan rents hit their… all… time… peak… this month. Simply amazing.
Gosh, it sounds like the majority of landlords in NYC are losing money each month. How do they stay in business?
That $1.4 million dollar apartment was only $140k 20 years ago.
And their “1.4 million” apartment will be back to $140k….. right about what it’s worth.
No, it will be worse because the property taxes, assessments, co-op fees etc. now based on the price of the “1.4 million” apartment” will never go back down.
“the property taxes, assessments, co-op fees etc. now based on the price of the “1.4 million” apartment” will never go back down.”
I don’t know about other states, but when a house is sold in California for 150,000, when it used to be 300,000, the new tax assessment is 150,000.
suspect many LLords are losing money each month (no doubt they’ll make it up on the huge growth that “everyone knows” happens to housing prices).
Though, on more serious note, suspect many landlords bought the properties a decade or more ago and are into them, say, 20% their current ostensible market value. Gives room to breathe…
As to risk… don’t need a price crash, but even a 2% drop per year in value (inevitable… right) causes an additional ~$2500/month value hit, making a potential $11k/month cost to own vs $4900 rent, never mind repairs n’ such.
I read somewhere that you could use $800/mo per $100,000.00 of mortgage debt for a cursory PITI napkin calculation. Thus, for your $1.4-million place: 14 x $800.00 = $11,200.00/mo. You were not far off.
They can sustain $600K apartments on $80K income because a lot of owners live elsewhere. An article (NYT) sometime in the last year estimated that able 1/3 of the apartments in the upper east side neighboorhood were secondary residences.
“In a large swath of the East Side bounded by Fifth and Park Avenues and East 49th and 70th Streets, about 30 percent of the more than 5,000 apartments are routinely vacant more than 10 months a year because their owners or renters have permanent homes elsewhere, according to the Census Bureau’s latest American Community Survey.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/07/nyregion/more-apartments-are-empty-yet-rented-or-owned-census-finds.html?pagewanted=all
“a $4900 full-service-building monthly rental at about $40/sqft/month”
I’m thinking you mean $4. Otherwise it’s a modest bathroom.
Verily. The $40 cited was the low end of $40-50/sqft that is the going rate… per year, not month
Apologies.
New York has some unique (or at least rare) conditions. Rent controls allow long-resident, lower income folks to rent in neighborhoods that have risen beyond their means.
Subways allow those of more modest means easy access into Manhattan from Queens, Brooklyn, and the Bronx.
From the NYTimes: Diamonds as a Commodity
“Could diamonds be the new gold?”
NO
“A small number of investment professionals around the world are competing behind the scenes to turn the gem into a commodity that would be available to investors in the way that gold has been traded through funds on exchanges.
The end of the monopoly still left perhaps the biggest barrier to investment: the lack of uniform standards for diamond pricing. Unlike gold, which is sold for essentially the same price in financial markets around the world, diamonds have been sold mostly through bazaarlike areas like the Manhattan district and the Antwerp Diamond Bourse, which advertises that a “binding handclasp fixes price, delivery and conditions.”
What about the ability to synthesize near-perfect substitutes for Mother Nature’s diamonds? So far as I can tell, this is a huge difference between diamonds and gold as a medium of exchange. It makes diamonds more akin to paper than to precious metals.
It doesn’t matter. The government would by law issue the currency, and it would be a promise to redeem in physical, which there wouldn’t be but a fraction available. Then the notes would not be redeemable in anything. Like now.
You bring a good point. A gold standard would only work if people were content with the idea they could redeem their paper for physical. If many tried to execute said rights at the same time, the equivalent of a run on the bank would occur, and the gold standard would collapse.
Got coal?
I know I can sell my gold for cash. Did so a few years ago. Can do it during my lunch hour on a visit to my gold dealer and depart with the cash within 10 minutes of walking into his door.
Near perfect? Try absolutely perfect. In fact, more perfect than the real thing.
And mass produced.
If the world supply of cut diamonds suddenly vanished 99.999% of the population would not be affected. If something should happen to the Visa/Mastercard network and it was totally compromised and/or offline for more than 48 hours 98.999% of Americans would be hurting in real economic ways. One could make an argument that one of the safest/riskiest investment you could make is to buy their stock as a proxy on ‘digital money’. BTW Visa @ $123 or Mastercard @ $440 as of 4/13/12 and at record highs.
PS: It was just a few months ago that their networks were cracked and over 1 million accounts were compromised. Just based on the known number of successful hacks that have been revealed by the media I would bet there are dozens of other major ‘events’ that are secret. But since it’s just digital credits and debits nobody gets hurt.
LOL! A couple of million Social Security accounts were cracked last year too.
So many, that the IRS had to create a new form (Form 14039: Identity Theft Affidavit, December 2011) to report identity theft ie people filing taxes using your SS number to get a refund.
My Visa was hacked three weeks ago. What a pain. 10 days without my bank card was not so bad as having to make two trips to the bank to sign papers. So I had to carry cash and think about what I was going to buy before heading out. It would be very inconvenient if I was depending on credit to buy gas or food.
Blue is that related to the Visa partner getting hacked or you card number being lifted?
Once a used a brand new card (literally never used) while in transit through LAX at a bar. Within 24 hours I had charges for a dating service in Boston. Trying explaining that to the GF it was lifted number! (Waiter/Bartender took card to swipe card and took down info before handing it back to me. I am not a fan of having the CC terminals out of the customer’s sight).
I’m pretty careful with this card, as it draws on my checking account. A few months ago a kid at Staples tried to take it out of my hand while the charge cleared and he was surprised that it wouldn’t come free. He pulled pretty hard actually, which I found very offensive. Store policy… I guess they want to grab the card if the computer says deadbeat or something.
Anyway, the bogus charges were all in GB. Head teller at my bank said she was dealing with a rash of similar, so I don’t think it was physical exposure of just my card.
“He pulled pretty hard actually, which I found very offensive. Store policy… I guess they want to grab the card if the computer says deadbeat or something.”
–You got it. As it is the policy, as I worked in retail from 1986 to 1994 and if the card failed authorization from the CC network we WERE required to confiscated it. The banks position that it was there property and the customer was violating the rules of use. Even if it was not the customer’s fault for the problem.
“Head teller at my bank said she was dealing with a rash of similar, so I don’t think it was physical exposure of just my card.” Yeah, that does sound like it was not a lifted number. It stinks even when one is so carefull that it happens through another party.
From the NYTimes: In California, Economic Gap of East vs. West
“For decades, California has been seen nationally and by its own residents as a state divided into north and south, urbane tree-huggers versus car-obsessed beach hoppers. But the more meaningful division, it turns out, may be between east and west.
“This is really a tale of two economies,” said Stephen Levy, the director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. “The coastal areas are either booming or at least doing well, and the areas that were devastated still have a long way to go. The places that existed just for housing are not going to come back anytime soon.”
Nick DePasquale, who runs a Ford dealership here, can see it clearly. When he looks at the sales figures for dealerships less than 100 miles away, Mr. DePasquale sees signs of hope. Sales are up, if not drastically, at least enough to show that more people there are trading in their aging vehicles for spiffier models.
But when he glances at his own bottom line, the reality is grim. Less than five years ago, he was selling 300 cars a month. These days, the number rarely budges above 75.
Asked if he could imagine anything changing soon, he let out a little chuckle and said, “The hottest-selling thing in this city is a $5,000 used car, and we don’t have a lot of those on this lot.”
“The hottest-selling thing in this city is a $5,000 used car”
Assuming there’s gas to put in it. At least he’s not in Massachusetts.
“The coastal areas are either booming or at least doing well,…”
On what planet does a grade of C+ constitute “doing well” — Planet Poverty, perhaps?
EconoMeter: What letter grade did experts give economy?
Did the U.S. and San Diego deserve passing grades for the 1st quarter?
FILE - In this March 7, 2012, file photo shows job seekers standing line during the Career Expo job fair, in Portland, Ore. Employers pulled back sharply on hiring last month, a reminder that the U.S. economy may not be growing fast enough to sustain robust job growth. The unemployment rate dipped, but mostly because more Americans stopped looking for work. The Labor Department says the economy added 120,000 jobs in March, down from more than 200,000 in each of the previous three months. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer) — AP
Written by Roger Showley noon, April 13, 2012
What grade would you give the San Diego County economy for the 1st quarter of 2012?
Q: What letter grade would you give the national economy and local San Diego County economy for the first quarter of 2012?
Panel’s answer: U.S., C; San Diego, C+
The economy gets a D. That’s a capital D. That stands for Debt. Debt forced upon us by a benevolent government.
The debt grade is AA-, at least according to Fitch.
Fitch Rates San Diego, CA Implied GO at ‘AA-’; Outlook Stable
Published: Friday, 13 Apr 2012 | 4:34 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO, Apr 13, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Fitch Ratings has assigned San Diego, California an implied unlimited tax general obligation (GO) bond rating of ‘AA-’.
In addition, Fitch affirms the following ratings: –$7.7 million San Diego (CA) certificates of participation (1993 Balboa Park/Mission Bay Park Refunding), series 2003 at ‘A+’; –$330.9 million San Diego Public Facilities Financing Authority (CA) lease revenue bonds, series 2002B, 2007A, and 2010A (Master Refunding Project) at ‘A+’; –$10.7 million San Diego Metropolitan Transit Development Board (CA) lease revenue refunding bonds, series 2003 at ‘A+’; –$156.8 million Convention Center Expansion Financing Authority(CA) lease revenue bonds, series 1998A at ‘A+’.
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
…
Didn’t San Diego go bankrupt a few years ago?
“Didn’t San Diego go bankrupt a few years ago?”
So did “Thee OC!”
Funny, they’re still apart of America. Howd’ that happen?
“The places that existed just for housing are not going to come back anytime soon.”
There it is. Take away the reason for a town to exist and you will end up with a ghost town.
The overflow areas are screwed. There are reasons people did not live in these areas before the mania and these reasons are still there.
The reasons for not living there were temporarily overcome by the mania, and now that the mania has run its course the reasons are reasserting themselves.
“California has been seen nationally and by its own residents as a state divided into north and south, urbane tree-huggers versus car-obsessed beach hoppers. But the more meaningful division, it turns out, may be between east and west.”
Well, Mr. Cole & eye just completed the “holy cross” of Cali-forn-eye-a:
From San Diego to Dunsmuir, from S.F. to Truckee on our Calif. Amtrak Rail pass (7 days unlimited travel $159.00 Adults $80.00 kids)
Mr. Cole was much impressed with the types & selections of the Bay-area people movers.
Throw in side trips to San Luis Obispo, San Jose, Salinas, Stockton, Sacramento, & Auburn
Why some/many folks would spend $200,000++++ to “live” in certain areas & in house$ of que$tionable construct is beyond my comprehension$.
Meet quite a few of me Amish cousins traveling this week as well, they’re still built stout & they walk slow, includes the women folk as well. (Watching their children eyes [quietly] taking everything in was fascinating)
Stayed at a hostel in downtown SF, more aged than kids, watching x2 Irish senior women going to town on the community internet was amusing.
I will note that while on a Muni train nearly everyone was doing something personal with a PDA. (Them humans, theys are quite the code-talkers)
Headin’ fer the jacuzzi, need to heal me aching body. ;-/
Oh, I’ll post later about “artistic” applications + old fashion “bidness” eye spotted in Chinatown, SF … displaying a collaborative effort in a new way.
Cheers!
“All aboard Amtrak!”
What a hoot, Hwy! My son and I loved our numerous Amtrak adventures, too. Always met the most fascinating people, enjoyed the not-at-all bad regional foods and enlightening peeks into America’s backyards. Always wanted to do the trans-Canadian route, but they discontinued before we could climb aboard.
The best part about the US routes is that something always goes whack and Amtrak is very good about handing out refunds– requested or not– so many of our trips, though delayed or showerless, were nearly free.
FYI, the depot off hwy 58 is for sale. All those dilapidated bunkhouses across from the Post Office at the bend where the train always derails. What a great B&B THAT would make for the train-spotters.
“The best part about the US routes is that something always goes whack and Amtrak is very good about handing out refunds– requested or not”
Wife and I took the Zephyr from Sac to Salt Lake City in ‘08. No one expected them to be on time, so no one cared! Union Pacific owns the track, so they control what happens. I recommend it. The best part about it being terminally late is that they have it scheduled to cross the Nevada desert when it’s dark, presumably because they think people find it boring. I don’t, so I was delighted with the delay.
“This is really a tale of two economies,” said Stephen Levy, the director of the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. “The coastal areas are either booming or at least doing well, and the areas that were devastated still have a long way to go. The places that existed just for housing are not going to come back anytime soon.”
Many of the California coastal zip codes have enhanced FHA loan limits that are keeping the Wurlitzer playing.
The Drudge Report’s top headline, from the LATimes: Mitt Romney warns NRA against an ‘unrestrained’ second-term Obama
“Mitt Romney drew a warm reception from the National Rifle Assn. on Friday as he attacked President Obama for “employing every imaginable ruse and ploy” to restrict gun rights, which Romney pledged not to do if elected in November.
Although gun control groups have complained that Obama has done little to support their cause, Romney took a page from the NRA leadership, which has been saying that the president is waiting for a second term to crack down on firearms. He warned that Obama would “remake” the Supreme Court in a second term, threatening constitutional freedoms.
Is Mitt gonna have to buy and learn how to shoot a gun to prove his allegiance to the NRA?
Gun ownership and religion have a lot in common, when you think about it.
Religion and politics have more in common. Both best performed with blindfolds.
“Religion and politics have more in common.”
OK, let me restate my point:
Gun ownership, religion, and politics have a lot in common.
I seem to remember a quote by some politician about people who “cling to their guns or religion.”
Of course, Mitt came out against birth control again at that same NRA speech. He for some reason does not want any independent women voting for him.
In all of America, there is no larger private provider of healthcare for women and their babies than the Catholic Church. But that’s not enough for the Obamacare bureaucrats. No, they want Catholics to fall in line and violate the tenets of their faith.
As President, I will follow a very different path than President Obama. I will be a staunch defender of religious freedom. The Obamacare regulation is not a threat and insult to only one religious group - it is a threat and insult to every religious group. As President, I will abolish it.
Of course, Obamacare was fashioned on Romneycare and Romneycare contains the exact same provisions regarding birth control.
I seem to remember a quote by some politician about people who “cling to their guns or religion.”
You don’t like that he spoke truth do you?
???
He came out against who should pay for it.
Only in a liberal’s mind are you against something if you think the government (or someone else) should not be paying for your free sh!t.
Of course, Mitt came out against birth control again at that same NRA speech. He for some reason does not want any independent women voting for him.
damm dem dar librulls huh nana?
Two can play that political game. Expect the Obama campaign to point out that even if Mitt shifts a bit toward the center to try to attract independent votes, he will be running his second primary campaign from moment one if he wins.
“…if Mitt shifts a bit toward the center to try to attract independent votes…”
Isn’t that known as the etch-a-sketch plan?
Gun forum here —> http://www.nationalgunforum.com/
Have fun.
Right, Mitt. He hasn’t done anything of the sort, has given not the slightest indication that he might, and has actually ADVANCED gun freedoms during his first term (right to carry in national parks, anyone?, Advocating gun control to municipalities, not the State, etc.,) but go ahead and pander to the slavering freaks. Even if it’s totally conjectural and without basis.
He’s comin’ fer our guns! Hide the wimmins!
“Although gun control groups have complained that Obama has done little to support their cause”
Bullcrap. The Obama admin made it possible to now carry in National Parks.
This isn’t just helping, it’s a serious sea change.
Dang it! Copied the wrong quote!
This is the one I was referring to:
“Romney took a page from the NRA leadership, which has been saying that the president is waiting for a second term to crack down on firearms. “
The GOP sells fear every election, and people eat it up. Pathetic. When their baseless assertions never pan out, how come they’re never called out on it?
Panned out in 1994. People have long memories.
Well both parites sell fear?. So what’s wrong with voting against something? I fear government run health brought to me by people such as Obama and Hillary (who tried) who won’t even send their childen to public school. Tells me all I need to know. Speaking of Obama again this week he said he should pay more taxes. What’s stopping him????
“and Hillary (who tried) who won’t even send their childen to public school. Tells me all I need to know.”
What do you need to know? Even if we had single payer, wealthy people could still get privatized health care, and I presume Hillary would get that. I’m sure I would too. Not sure how that choice implies anything relevant about the socialized medicine debate.
“the president is waiting for a second term to crack down on firearms”
I think he’s waiting for a second term to do a lot of things, shamnasty being one of them. I really think the prezzy hates this country, and its citizens, with a well-hidden passion and would count it his finest achievement to consign it to the dung-heap of history. The last two presidents have made for one long depressing deterioration. I’m not fond of Romney, but I do think he wants the country to survive.
“I’m not fond of Romney, but I do think he wants the country to survive.”
In the sense that he wants to increase household-level possession of firearms?
I guess every nutjob with similar proclivities to the Norwegian child murderer has a Constitutional right to bear arms, right up until the moment he pulls the trigger on innocent children.
Norway massacre survivors brace for killer’s trial on Monday
Updated 23m ago
OSLO, Norway (AP) – When Per Anders Langeroed heard about the bomb explosion in downtown Oslo, he wrote reassuringly to his Facebook friends that he was “safe on Utoya.”
Moments later, even greater mayhem was unleashed on the island youth camp outside the Norwegian capital. Scores of mostly teenage victims were slaughtered as Langeroed and others fled into a frigid lake to escape the rampaging gunman.
Those who survived Norway’s worst peacetime massacre on July 22 are bracing for the horror of Utoya island to return when the trial of confessed killer Anders Behring Breivik begins on Monday.
“I dread the trial,” Langeroed, a 26-year-old master’s student, told the Associated Press. “It will come back. Stories. Questions. Could I have saved others? Could I have done more? I survived by pure chance.”
…
What would your commentary be if the murders were performed with a sword, or with a bomb?
I am a former rifle competition champion and an engineer. I am a fair tracker and hunter and can still pop an apple on a fence post offhand at 100 yards. I doubt that I am a threat to society, but I am capable of making and using a firearm, bow and arrows, chem weapons, explosives (gunpowder from pee is a classic), catapults, cannon and sharpened sticks. Oh, and a laser, but that would take a while. It is really easier to destroy a large building full of people than to find, aim & shoot everybody one by one. Remote control has unexplored possibilities.
Owning a gun doesn’t make one a psychopath. We pretty much ignore mental health care in this country, and are all shocked when someone has a psychotic break and goes berserk after a long history of mania and depression. It is a common failing to associate coincidence with cause.
Free men own guns, Slaves do not.
It really is that simple.
And as we economically move toward slavery and the confused masses recognize that but can’t figure out how to stop it, it’s only natural that they might feel even more dependent on guns for whatever comes next. And more hostile to anyone they think might try to take them away. Obama has done a good job of keeping a low profile in that area, but he needs to keep a shorter leash on Holder.
“…Free men own guns, Slaves do not.”
Because America’s military and police institutions are such bastions of free thought and independent will….
“Free men own guns, Slaves do not.”
So if a debt slave heloc’d his home and used the proceeds to purchase a gun, would that make him a free man?
I have a feeling we’re going to find out.
“What would your commentary be if the murders were performed with a sword, or with a bomb?”
It would be, ‘That nutjob must have been pretty good with a sword to kill that many people before anyone stopped him.’
Seriously, I can only think of one very high profile case of anyone ever murdering others with a sword. You guess which one I have in mind!
P.S. I assume the Constitution does not provide a right to bear bombs, but please correct me if I missed that provision.
Drawing a blank, prof. Who?
Lizzie Borden used an axe. Did you mean Medea maybe?
LOL. We had a guy here kill his neighbor with a hammer. He was a nutjob. Hammers are not evil.
Personally, I cannot abide bearing the Wall Street banks.
Maybe it was a carving knife I had in mind, not a sword.
The Farmer’s Wife?
People with guns use guns to kill other people a lot more often than people without guns do.
Check out some stats between gunshot murder rates in Seattle versus in Vancouver some time if you aren’t convinced by the theoretical argument.
Hey, they work. If they didn’t we’d invent something else.
Canada abolished the gun registry last year. They are happy enough not to live in nutjob Seattle.
Blue and to you Mr CBIT:
IIRC, in Japan, a man was able to attack 30 people with a knife at a school. Sent some to the hospital and sent many more to the morgue. I believe this was in the 1990’s.
I seem to recall something about an airplane hijacking with a box cutter here in the US as well.
Yep, no gun needed to cause mass death.
No gun needed, but gun so much more efficient for mass murder than knife. Just think about how many people own knives (almost every household owns at least one, I believe) and how many own guns (not every household), then do a simple bean counting exercise to compare how many people die in the U.S. every year of gunshot wounds versus of knife stabbings.
I think just the raw numbers would point out the patently obvious: Guns are a far more efficient way to kill others than knives are.
And we patriotic Americans are an efficient people, which I guess helps explain why we love our guns so much — fat cat true-blooded conservative Republicans especially love ‘em!
“IIRC, in Japan, a man was able to attack 30 people with a knife at a school.”
What point are you trying to make with this one data point? Is it that since it is so hard to kill people with guns under the Japanese legal system, people have to do it the old fashioned way, with knives?
Not a very convincing data point if you had to go way back to the 1990s to find it. I’m guessing I could go to the newspaper web site of half a dozen different U.S. cities and find comparable numbers of individuals who died of gunshot wounds last weekend.
Years ago there were not nearly as much crime in this country such as school shooting etc.Because crime was not so well tolerated. Certain, swift, and severe penalites were the norm. Then in the 1960s & 1970s the liberals got into the act. Poor Johnnie. Someone looked at him crossed when he was child. He has low self esteem, etc…. I think too there’s a big role from violience in media / entertainment. How to addess that without censorship - no idea. Parental peer pressure sure not working.
Because crime was not so well tolerated. Certain, swift, and severe penalites were the norm. Then in the 1960s & 1970s the liberals got into the act.
What are you even talking about? USA is a prison nation with the highest per-capita incarceration rate in the world. Where do you come up with your erroneous propaganda? Do you believe what you say or is it a plan?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate
How many school shootings have there been in the last decade compared to the 1960s, 1950s, 1940s etc…? What about white collar crime? Beltway snipers? There still is a lot of revolving door justice despite three strikes and your out laws in many places. Some are advocating getting rid of them for “victimless” crimes such as drugs. Let’s see an unemployed junkie has a $100 per week habit. Wonder how he’ll get the $100. Guess there will not be any “victims.” Some people complain about the high co$t of prison. That’s another issues. Bust the prison guard unions or outsource the prisons to Mexico.
The 60’s saw school shootings at Kent State, Charles Whitman, Manson, Zodiac,
The 50’s had civil rights bombings, George Metesky, Ed Gein…
The 40’s had gang warfare in LA, SF, Chicago, NYC, Klan Violence, Zoot Suit wars…
The 30’s had Prohibition wars….
And white collar crime? You’re kidding, right? Where do you think the term came from?
Don’t kid yourself, America has always been “lawless.” It doesn’t fit into your narrative.
PS Legalizing sale of “street” drugs would certainly bring down the price, like coffee or soda, wouldn’t it?
He who counts the votes is way more important than your or my vote. See also: Gore vs. Bush.
I would have thought you were a Ron Paul guy. If you are going to stick to the plan then write in RP.
I really think the prezzy hates this country, and its citizens, with a well-hidden passion ??
You can’t be serious Palmy ??
As a heart attack.
I really think the prezzy hates this country, and its citizens, with a well-hidden passion
Bases on what?
par·a·noi·a
[par-uh-noi-uh]
noun
1. Psychiatry . a mental disorder characterized by systematized delusions and the projection of personal conflicts, which are ascribed to the supposed hostility of others, sometimes progressing to disturbances of consciousness and aggressive acts believed to be performed in self-defense or as a mission.
2. baseless or excessive suspicion of the motives of others.
Getting worried about you, palmetto.
“Getting worried about you, palmetto.”
Just because yer paranoid, doesn’t mean they aren’t out ta getya!
I don’t think his hatred is well hidden at all.
Neither do I, Anon, but it is to the general public who aren’t able to see behind the mask.
All smiles, and fists full of vaseline.
If one sells the rights of his fellows for a few scraps of personal gain, it might perhaps be ambivalence, or it might be hatred. If this is the case, then it should be clear that it is pervasive in Congress, and electing Congress-persons to the White House just gives them more sway.
Ben Jones gets a shout-out in today’s Globe And Mail:
“Speculation in Canadian cities such as Vancouver and Toronto is wildly out of control, and the real-estate bubble in this country is overdue for a correction painfully similar to the one south of the border in 2008. As well, Canadian investors who are buying in the depressed U.S. market today are taking much bigger risks than they think.
That’s the forecast according to Ben Jones, at least. Don’t believe him? People have made that mistake before.
When the Arizona-based accountant launched the Housing Bubble Blog in December, 2004, he was a lone voice crying wolf about the vulnerability of the U.S. housing market.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/buying-and-selling/what-will-make-the-housing-boom-go-bust-greed/article2402051/
“As well, Canadian investors who are buying in the depressed U.S. market today are taking much bigger risks than they think.”
I’m looking forward to laughing my arse off when the current generation of too-clever-by-half Canadian and Chinese investors lose their shirts on the next leg down in U.S. housing prices. It happened similarly to Japanese investors who snapped up commercial RE in the U.S. during the early-1990s bust.
They’ll have some pain first with their own bubble popping I suspect. Then a second kick in the arse when we take a second leg down.
What inning are we in now?
Middle of 5th
Bravo B. Dogg!
By virtue of the fact that they’ve waited until now to speak about their bubble problem, especially with you, suggests the hole in the floor is right in front of them and they’re ready to fall through it……. and then blame it on Ben Jones. lmao.
Oh my word……. someone counterfeited my username and posted to the comments section…… bastards!!!!
Imitation is flattery.
That was a stunningly good interview. Much better than the ones we saw from US papers. I think it was because they let it go long format (and even what the printed was identified as condensed).
Oh, and welcome new Canadian readers who followed the link. We are glad to meet you.
“Don’t believe him? People have made that mistake before.”
They seem to bee-a-recognizin’ the notches on yer handle Mr. Ben.
Rollin’ rollin’ rollin’, keep those wagon$ rollin’, rawhide!
Congrats Ben!
English-French translation for “dead-beat”
être sur les rotules
Kinda has a nice ring to it.
Or it could be…..
fourbu
That`s a lot easier, so I think I`ll go with forbu.
Nope, it`s flemmard.
French-English translation for “flemmard”
flemmard {adj.} (also: paresseux comme une couleuvre, glandeur)bone-lazy {adj.}
flemmard {adj.}slacker {adj.}
flemmard {m}deadbeat {noun}
Synonyms (French) for “flemmard”: © myThes Dicollectecossard paresseux mou oisif fainéant
So if anyone is tuned in from Quebec, my Lanlord is a flemmard.
I was amazed that so few Canuks attacked Ben!
In the comment section, I like the one about there not making anymore land in Northpoint (Vancouver), just ask Floridians, Nevadans, and the Japanese how that works out.
Ben, I liked your comment about a “rolling bubble”. when the Australia, China, Canada bubbles break I wonder how much damage it will do to the US market and to each others.
I don’t think many of our mortgages in Canada are insured by the government - certainly nowheres near the 90% in the USA.
Just once I wish someone would publish Ben’s commentary in its entirety. Even the “sympathetic” reportage is hesitant to tell the whole unedited truth– even though it’s literally right there staring them in the face.
Well done, Mr. Jones.
Will cash become still more regal with a slowing Chinese economy?
If a booming Chinese economy drove commodities, including PMs, through the roof, it seems a safe bet that a cooling Chinese economy could sink them through the floor. Of course, QE by the Fed and other major central banks remains the wild card, as the price of gold on the world market is denominated in dollars.
This article offers a hint:
Gold, silver fall as China’s economy cools
Metals Stocks
Copper also loses as investors worry about China’s slowdown
April 13, 2012|Claudia Assis and Virginia Harrison, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures retreated Friday, part of a broader selloff across commodity markets after a sharper-than-expected slowing in Chinese growth.
Gold for June delivery (US:GCM2) lost $20.40, or 1.2%, to $1,660.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Comments from Federal Reserve officials had helped spur expectations of more monetary stimulus and gave the metal a boost in Thursday’s session, but optimism soured after data released Friday showed Chinese growth cooled to its slowest pace in 11 quarters.
…
Realtors Are Liars®
Good morning to you, too.
If many billions are going to be spent developing a high-speed rail line for CA, leaving San Diego, one of the country’s largest cities and a major tourist destination, not to mention Sacramento, the state capital, out of the plan, seems very short-sighted. A similar mistake was made when the BART system was developed in the Bay Area without a San Jose terminus. Hellish traffic resulted in the South Bay during the late-1990s/early-2000s tech boom.
If they aren’t going to get the design right due to marginal budget concerns, they should just scrap the plan.
High-Speed Rail System Drops San Diego, Disneyland from Proposal
Critics are targeting the project’s $68.4 billion cost
By Associated Press • Fri, Apr 13th, 2012
The authority overseeing efforts to build a high-speed rail system in California approved its revised business plan on Thursday, sending the ambitious project to an uncertain fate in the Legislature.
Sacramento, the state capital, and San Diego, a major tourist destination, will not be directly connected to the high-speed rail line as envisioned in the project’s initial phase. Even a bullet train connection to Anaheim, home of Disneyland, was removed to save money, although board members on Thursday said they hoped to find a way to salvage that connection.
The California High-Speed Rail Authority voted 6-0, with two members absent, to approve its latest plan. Two hours of public comment preceded the vote, most of it favorable toward the bullet train.
“We’re 30 years behind the rest of the world. It’s time for us to move ahead in our country,” rail board member Bob Balgenorth said.
…
Doing it right is generally cheaper than doing it over.
Disneyland charges to park don’t they?
Ever notice how only a few airports are served by mass transit? Even the AirTrain from JFK does not directly serve Manhattan.
Another LAX story:
California/Feds spends $300 Million PER MILE to build an new freeway (105) with a light rail system and the rail system stops with a quater of a mile from the LAX terminals! You got to transfer to a bus from that station to reach LAX. You can see everything from the airport.
I’ve been told the rail and the freeway does NOT go to the beach either, though the beach is only a couple of miles away.
City and County shuttle and parking lot lobbies.
“public comment preceded the vote, most of it favorable toward the bullet train.”
public comment preceded the vote, most of it favorable toward [any functional ma$$ transportation system other than sitting x1 person per ga$oline vehicle in traffic like millions of others in the same $it-U-A-$hun.]
(They always beat around the bush)
What the latest $ales comparison?:
Cheney-$hrub Hummer$
Preppies Priu$
Talk about that Vi$ion thang!
I tagged this theme in weekend suggestions late in the day. Thought I’d port it to today.
(Note: I’d posted this with links to NY area news articles, but the post is not going through. In case the links are hitting the filter, here is the chat without the links)
New York City rents still are rising. This month seeing the highest prices in history. Not a joke. Numerous reports.
Housing bubble started to pop (we seem to believe) around late 2005. Certainly significant national economic hits have happened since then. We do, a bit, sneer at “my location is different” comments, with some merit, as often myths of “all real estate is local” have been well trumped by “all credit is national/international”.
Still, “location anomalies” occur, it seems.
Manhattan still shows gross bubble effects, never mind sales prices having more than tripled since 1997 and having shown arguably minimal softening the last couple years, cost of ownership still dwarfs cost of renting and ratio of median sales price to median family income (with median sales price generally for a one or small two bedroom place) is grossly high, I’d guess > 6 to 1.
There are caveats. Has the median income thing been controlled just for those working in city (many commute) or is it actually the median for those living here? Dunno.
But, two key hallmarks of bubble-hood– price to income and own vs rent cost– still seem grossly bubbly here.
Example. a $4900 full-service-building monthly rental at about $40/sqft/month likely would cost about $1,400,000 to buy, with monthly tax/maintenance running at $2k or so in addition to mortgage cost. at 3.9% (can one get that on a “giant”) even with $200,000 down, this gives a $7600 payment. With nothing down (yeah, right), payment around $8,600 per month. As to risk… don’t need a price crash, but even a 2% drop per year in value (inevitable… right) causes an additional ~$2500/month value hit, making a potential $11k/month cost to own vs $4900 rent, never mind repairs n’ such. And, the full service rental buildings do allow painting, so even as lowly renter, I can have pretty walls.
So, I’m in town in which the cost to “own” can be– for example– $8600-11,000 per month vs a $4900 rental. Very bubbly.
And, yeah, there are prior threads on NYC, but then there are prior threads on many things, and the subject still has merit.
And, yeah, when I posted yesterday, the “loudest” answer was snark about choosing to bear the costs of NYC. Not the point. There are bazillionaires out there for whom cost does not matter and there are folks scraping buy and the whole spectrum makes life choices. I’m not writing to get input as to whether I should live in a cheaper town. That’s a personal economic choice.
I am curious about views of the economics of the Manhattan housing market, in context of the typical memes of housing bubbleness.
Yeah, all that Wall Street and QE money goes through NY, but is that enough to prop up hundreds of thousands of apartments?
Are some places actually… different? Different either in quality or just in time coures?
How can a town with ostensible $80k median income sustain $600k entry level one bedroom apartment prices? If there has been a bit of easing of prices the last year or two (keeping in mind prices more than tripled since 1997), when does the trivial softening become a significant. There are other nice and expensive cities in the USA. San Fran, Boston, Chicago and such seem to be taking their hits.
And, meanwhile, in midst of this, Manhattan rents hit their… all… time… peak… this month. Simply amazing.
Welcome to McDonalds may I take your order?
Yes, I`ll have the Mr. Ed meal medium size with a Coke.
NM Governor Asks Feds to Stop Horse Slaughterhouse
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. April 13, 2012 (AP)
New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez said Friday she is asking federal officials not to allow a southeastern New Mexico company to open the nation’s first slaughterhouse for horses since 2007.
Martinez plans to send a letter to the U.S. Department of Agriculture asking it deny a Roswell meat company’s request for inspections that would allow it to operate.
“Despite the federal government’s decision to legalize horse slaughter for human consumption, I believe creating a horse slaughtering industry in New Mexico is wrong and I am strongly opposed,” Martinez said in a statement.
Valley Meat Co. has filed an application with the U.S. Department of Agriculture for its 7,300-square-foot plant outside of town. Documents obtained by the Humane Society of the United States and Front Range Equine Rescue show that horses would be “custom slaughtered” and processed for human consumption at the plant, the Albuquerque Journal reported ( http://bit.ly/IlnrcB ).
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/nm-governor-asks-feds-stop-horse-slaughterhouse-16134042 -
Hey, doll. Could you scare up another round for our table over here? And tell the cook this is low grade dog food. I’ve had better food at the ballgame, you know? This steak still has marks from where the jockey was hitting it…
Just think, the jockey whips would help tenderize the meat.
Speaking of dogs:
My former Filipina GF said dog tasted like stringy chicken!
As the price of hay continues to spiral upwards, ($20 a bale in South CA.,)the number of “pet” horses left abandoned to starve is appalling. Many of those sold at auction end up at the Mexican “rodeos” to be tortured to death, and horse rescue preserves are operating way over capacity.
Few horse-owners have the pasture acreage to support free-grazing, so their animals end up in 12×12′ pens with barely enough room to turn around or lie down. When they stop paying the stable fees, the horses are simply sold or shot.
Ironic as it seems, even PETA supports re-certification of the slaughterhouses as a more humane way of managing the oversupply.
For the record, horse meat is delicious — lean and mineral much like bison– and most amenable to marinade and grilling. Whenever mine get over-rambunctuous I like to remind them of this fact.
Mr. Ed - Intro (Opening Theme) - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_PZPpWTRTU - 139k -
One thang America ain’t / isn’t: Homogeneou$ Distribution$ & Contribution$
Meet Allan Hill, the man who lives In Detroit’s abandoned Packard Auto Plant
By Matt Hardigree | Jalopnik – Fri, Apr 13, 2012
Perhaps the biggest shortcoming of Detroit “ruin porn” is it inherently ignores the very real people who still live in the city. Now there’s a convergence — the amazing story of Allan Hill, the man who legally lives inside the city’s abandoned Packard Auto Plant.
What’s most surprising about this moving mini-documentary is Hill’s “quality of life” doesn’t look as terrible as you’d imagine, nor does his reasoning for choosing to stay in the largest abandoned factory in the world seem so unsound.
The whole creation is a huge gut-check to our biases. Yes, the Packard Plant is so giant and empty and strange they shoot Michael Bay movies there. And, occasionally, kids push a dump truck out a window.
“This $en$ele$$ act of violence was committed by one person and he is dead,” Christianson said.
Feds seek evidence after fiery Calif. standoff
By TRACIE CONE | Associated Press
Darlene Williams, who along with her brother, Jonathan, grew up with Ferrario, told the Modesto Bee that Ferrario had lost his job as a security guard
State online records show Ferrario’s security guard registration and firearms permit were canceled in 2009 with no disciplinary action indicated.
The newspaper said the Ferrario property had fallen behind on payments on a $15,000 Bank of America mortgage taken out in 2003. The property owner also appears to have defaulted on $13,406 owed to the Whispering Woods Community Association.
The association foreclosed on the condo last year, followed by a bank foreclosure in December, the newspaper reported.
What passes for excitement in Syracuse? A new Forever 21 store opens and 500 people show up. And you wonder how it is that houses still move whether people have money or not. My point: shopping is entertainment. Spending/Consuming is all there is in most people’s lives after friends, family and work.
Another local story: Last year the avg female prom attendee parent spent $750. This year prices are up so it’s closer to $1000. One of my out of town friends spent $700 on her oldest daughter’s dress last year. Months later the family didn’t have enough money for back to school clothes. I get wanting your daughter who at 15 might not be so sure how beautiful she is to be among the fairer maidens, your son to not be embarassed about what he picks up his date in but does anyone realize they can have an awesome time w/o dropping that type of cash?
“It’s one of our favorite stores,” said Willis. The duo, both 18, were among a crowd that reached more than 500 people — all waiting in the Lord & Taylor wing of the mall for the store’s grand opening.
The new 60,000-square-foot Forever 21 kicked off by giving away 400 gift certificates ranging from $10 to $210. All of the certificates, randomly distributed, were given out in the first half hour after the gate went up at 10 a.m. A disc jockey welcomed customers into the colorful two-story space. Forever 21 employees signed them up to win one of five free outfits. Each customer who spent over $40 was given a free lip gloss gift.
http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2012/04/forever21_stores_draws_big_cro.html
We reicevd our second LP delivered to this residence by Palm Beach County on Thursday. The first one on 05/05/2010 had my name as well as my wife`s name on it as TENANT #1 and TENANT #2 . This one however does not, we are now known by WELLS FARGO BANK NA as UNKNOWN TENANT #1 and UNKNOWN TENANT #2. The DB LL recieved their NOT (workout) on 11/05/2010 after collectinG rent and not paying for a year, now after another year I guess the DB LL has sucked about as much tax free cash as he can out of this debt shack. (credit RAL)
But this is not a bad thing for me. I have been a long time Colts fan thus the name jeff saturday. The Colts have blown up the team and Jeff Saturday has moved on to Green Bay, Peyton has gone to visit in Colorado. So it seems the time for me to move on has come as well. Rio asked me yesterday if there was anything I wanted him to tell the Unkown Comic. Yes Rio there is, tell him that from now on I shall be known as The UNKNOWN TENANT.
Yes Rio there is, tell him that from now on I shall be known as The UNKNOWN TENANT.
LOL (The unknown comic was absent yesterday)
Waaaaasssssuuuuup.
The rents too damn high!
Yo my bro jethro:-)
Oh, yeah FRONTLINE is on the case!
http://video.pbs.org/video/2218309368
Program: FRONTLINE Episode: Money, Power and Wall StreetIn the special four-hour investigation, “Money, Power and Wall Street,” airing April 24 and May 1, FRONTLINE tells the inside story of the struggles to rescue and repair a shattered economy, exploring key decisions, missed opportunities, and the unprecedented and uneasy partnership between government leaders and titans of finance that affects the fortunes of millions of people around the world.
What about the unknown tenants around the world?
I think were are included:
” that affects the fortunes of millions of people around the world. “
http://tinyurl.com/co6sofd (the atlantic)
QUESTION: I will soon reach the end of a series of dental procedures that have cost me much time and tens of thousands of dollars. The dentist sold me on this process by telling me that if I didn’t get replacement teeth, I’d risk ending up without any teeth at all. But now I’m thinking I would have been better off taking my chances with my old teeth. What price is too high for long-term oral health?
S.S., Washington, D.C.
Dear S.S.,
No price is too high for long-term oral health. Many Americans cannot afford adequate dental care, and this helps keep them locked in poverty. It is much more difficult for a person to make his way through the job-interview process if his appearance triggers a negative impression, and rotting teeth are a uniquely powerful trigger. This is not an area in which you can afford to skimp. Especially as you age, vigorous oral hygiene, as well as a comprehensive campaign of ear-hair containment, are two of the few ways you can convince outsiders that you are not disintegrating at a fast rate.
“comprehensive campaign of ear-hair containment”
Who knew?
“The REALTOR Code of Ethics is a complete scam”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uwg-Y4EWFZo
It’s time to shutdown NAR
The Chinese hard landing risk was overblown. Now get out there Monday, muppets and muppettes, and use some of the cash you hoarded under your mattresses to snap up some stocks!
Analysis: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin
An employee counts Chinese yuan banknotes at a bank in Hefei, Anhui province November 11, 2010. REUTERS/Stringer
By Nick Edwards
BEIJING | Sat Apr 14, 2012 11:38pm EDT
(Reuters) - China’s weekend reform of its currency regime nails shut the coffin on the last remains of doubt about whether the world’s second biggest economy has successfully steered a course past a hard economic landing.
Investors were questioning whether the worst sequential slowdown in China’s economy since the 2008-09 global financial crisis could enter a sixth quarter after data on Friday revealed the weakest three months of annual growth in three years and a run rate below the official 7.5 percent 2012 target.
Shifting the yuan trading rules is about the strongest signal Beijing could give that growth downside has diminished and potential pitfalls are manageable. Few reforms are as replete with risk as tinkering with the currency because faith in its soundness directly correlates to economic stability.
“For everybody who thought China was heading for a hard landing, it’s over. This move says they are comfortable with the direction the economy is moving in,” Paul Markowski, president of New York-based MES Advisers and a long-time investment adviser to China’s monetary authorities, told Reuters.
International investors are certainly in need of something to calm concerns about the health of the global economy after asset markets worldwide were rattled on Friday by a combination of below-par Chinese growth data and renewed fears of contagion risks in the debt-plagued euro zone.
Timing, politics and diplomacy are all in focus after Saturday’s milestone step towards turning the yuan into a global currency that doubled the size of its trading band against the dollar to 1 percent.
But the economics of the move, predicted by a Reuters poll four weeks ago, are the most crucial for the 200 million or so jobs in China’s vast factory sector that analysts estimate directly depend on foreign trade.
…
I guess I am not the only one who sees no reason other countries besides Japan could potentially experience multiple “lost decades” in the aftermath of the Great Global Credit Boom and Bust.
“Deflation poses a greater risk than inflation,…”
Where have I heard that line before?
April 14, 2012, 9:38 a.m. EDT
Nowotny sees risk of ‘lost decades’ in Europe
By Nicole Lundeen
VIENNA (MarketWatch) — Deflation poses a greater risk than inflation, said European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ewald Nowotny.
“I see a greater risk [than inflation] is in the development of a phenomenon that in Japan is called the ‘two lost decades’–low growth and no or low inflation. That would greatly affect the younger generation’s chances. One must fight against that,” Nowotny said in an interview published Saturday in the Austrian daily Vorarlberger Nachrichten.
The rate decision maker said he saw no risk of inflation but added that energy prices were the main driver of inflation.
The comments suggest that Nowotny sees no need for the ECB to raise interest rates, even against the backdrop of inflation that remains stubbornly above the ECB’s benchmark of just below 2%. Annual inflation in the euro zone was 2.6% in March. Some commentators are calling for the central bank to lower its main rate below the current record low of 1% against a backdrop of austerity-stricken economies in southern Europe.
Nowotny, who is also Austria’s central bank governor, said he feared rating agencies have not lost their influence and that they could cause uncertainty to bubble up in the markets again.
“I fear that now is the calm before the storm,” he said, referring to the more than 100 European banks Moody’s placed on rating review. The rating review is expected around May.
“It can’t be excluded that that could lead to a certain uncertainty in Europe,” he added.
…