The Dependence On House Prices
I suggested a topic on the latest housing hype. “Found in the US media in the past week: ‘buy now while you can’, ‘prices are still way below where they ought to be’, ‘new homes’ prices are bound to go up, too’, ‘we’re paying money toward something we own instead of throwing it away on renting’, ‘Buyers feel a sense of urgency to get into this market.’ ‘History says prices are likely to rise. By not acting now, certain buyers run the risk of being priced out down the road’. ‘This is diamonds in the rough …neighborhoods that will skyrocket in value’.’
A reply, “So I’m not imagining this new campaign by the Housing Crime Syndicate and their media proxies?”
One said, “It’s the trickle-down grifter economy. Starts at the top, in gubbomin and finance, makes its way down to mortgage brokers, realturds, employers and the general public. People WANT to be fooled. I don’t know why, but there are plenty willing to oblige, to volunteer to be victims. Personally I couldn’t handle the stress.”
Another, “And why do they so badly want to believe in the easy money? It would seem it’s because earning the old fashioned way has become nearly impossible for most people.”
A reply, “Because they have been taught (and observed as well) that only fools actually work for wages. The real money is in getting cuts from productive people’s labor and making deals.”
The Orange County Register. “Orange County is seeing its best housing market since the final days of the housing boom in 2005, with the number of homes for sale at its lowest in nearly seven years and the number of sales contracts in progress at its second highest, a new housing report shows. The only month to see more deals reached than March was April 2010 – when buyers rushed to meet the deadline for the first-time homebuyers tax credit.”
“O.C. broker Steve Thomas noted that the types of homes now selling and the prices at which they’re selling is very different than during the boom, with the hottest demand for homes selling at $750,000 and below, and very little demand for homes in the $1.5 million range and above. ‘We’re still digesting and absorbing short sales,’ he said, referring to homes selling for less than is owed on their mortgages. Still, he said: ‘If you’re a buyer stepping into the market, it feels just like ’04 and ’05. … It’s still a crazy market.’”
“For example, agents are canceling appointments with buyers because there aren’t enough homes to show them. Thomas noted also that a neighbor in Ladera Ranch got two offers on his home before his agent could put a lock box on the door. ‘Agents are clamoring to get their buyers into a home,’ he said.”
“Thomas said that the market could change dramatically if homeowners suddenly see an opportunity to sell and put their homes on the market. ‘That could be the monkey wrench in this thing,’ he said.”
The Coloradoan. “In case you haven’t noticed, this year’s presidential race is heating up and candidates are weighing in on a number of important issues that will have great impact on our country and its economy. However, there is one topic in particular this year that is crucial to all Americans - homeownership. Of course, I would say that as an executive of the local Realtor Association right?”
“However, take the following into consideration. Restoring the health of the housing market and supporting homeownership in America has been shown time and time again to contribute to economic recoveries. Moreover, recent polling demonstrates that housing is a top-of-mind issue for voters and should become a national public policy priority. After all, we all need a place to lay our heads down at night.”
“In May, the National Association of Realtors is expecting thousands of members from around the country, including Fort Collins and Colorado, to rally in front of the nation’s Capitol with the intention of compelling our elected officials to consider how our country as a whole benefits from protecting the American Dream of Homeownership.”
“Despite seeing early signs of stabilization in our market this year, creditworthy buyers are still being denied their dreams of owning a home because they cannot qualify for a loan. In addition, homeowners in our area still are struggling with foreclosures and underwater mortgages. More must be done to reduce the rising inventory of foreclosed homes and address the lack of available and affordable mortgage financing. ”
“Realtors also would like to see more financing opportunities for buyers. Increased fees and higher down payments are making it difficult for many creditworthy buyers to obtain financing.”
“A survey by the National Association of Home Builders demonstrated that homeownership is a bipartisan issue in the eyes of potential voters. A majority of those surveyed said the government should do more to support homeownership and were opposed to getting rid of tax benefits for homeowners.”
“As the leading advocate for homeownership, Realtors will continue to urge lawmakers to make sure housing and homeownership issues are a top priority on the nation’s public policy agenda. The American dream of homeownership needs to be alive for generations to come.”
The Globe and Mail. “When it comes to the economy, the outlook on jobs and the ability to afford even the most basic things in life, Prairie dwellers are more optimistic than consumers in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes. Research shows that people don’t open their wallets based on what they think will happen to the national economy, but rather are governed by what is happening in their own life, said David Herle, principal of Gandalf Group. ‘That’s why we don’t see spending resurgence anywhere else in the country, because there have been no income gains anywhere else in the country.’”
“The survey underlines that many Canadians are suffering significant financial strain, because their incomes have nor kept pace with increased costs, Mr. Herle said. More than 30 per cent of respondents said they are making less money than they were in 2007, one-third said their savings or investments are worth less, and 20 per cent said their job is less secure.”
“‘Economic growth, as it matters to individuals, is not there,’ Mr. Herle said. ‘You have between a quarter and a third of Canadians who say they have a less-than-adequate budget for groceries, for housing, for clothing, for electricity costs, [and] for transportation. If they are parents, [they don’t have enough] for education for their kids or for extracurricular activities for their kids. There is a subset of the population that is struggling to manage with just the essentials.’”
“One bright light is that almost two-thirds of Canadians said their house or condo is worth more than it was in 2007. But this dependence on house prices to prop up individual net worth also has a dark lining, Mr. Herle said. ‘If you took away house prices, people … would be in really difficult financial straits. In the last five years, the only thing that has improved for most people is the value of their house.’”
“Orange County is seeing its best housing market since the final days of the housing boom in 2005, with the number of homes for sale at its lowest in nearly seven years and the number of sales contracts in progress at its second highest, a new housing report shows.”
My cuz just bought an OC short sale. Don’t know any details yet, but looking forward to hearing about it.
He tends to be pretty deft in such matters. I got a big kick out of it a couple of years back when he showed up at our place driving a nearly-brand-new white Lexus that he purchased for nickels on the dollar after it was repossessed from some real estate investor who lost his shirt and his new car…
“Thomas said that the market could change dramatically if homeowners suddenly see an opportunity to sell and put their homes on the market. ‘That could be the monkey wrench in this thing,’ he said.”
Slightly higher prices might do the trick. Too bad prices keep going down, down, down…
California Home Prices Fall Six Percent
LA PALMA Calif. (FNP) – California home prices fell six percent over the last year, according to a popular real estate reporting site. Cypress home prices fell 4.4 percent and La Palma home prices fell 1.9 percent over the same period.
…
“O.C. broker Steve Thomas noted that the types of homes now selling and the prices at which they’re selling is very different than during the boom, with the hottest demand for homes selling at $750,000 and below, and very little demand for homes in the $1.5 million range and above.”
It isn’t so much that demand is so hot below $750,000, as that it is virtually non-existent at prices above that level relative to where it was before the housing bubble popped.
Actually, (I believe) its the fact the FHA loan limit in Orange County is $729,750. It amazes me how many FB’s are back in line again to buy another house at 3.5% down (Loan guaranteed by the USA). All it takes is waiting 36 months after your last foreclosure, and your in again.
“However, take the following into consideration. Restoring the health of the housing market and supporting homeownership in America has been shown time and time again to contribute to economic recoveries.”
So far as I can tell, there is no sound economic argument to back up this shill’s claim. Of course, that won’t stop top policy economists at the Fed and other leading financial institutions from parroting the NAR’s talking points…
A big chunk of the economy is/was associated with housing - people who buy houses need to furnish them, maintain them, pay taxes on them, etc. - so I can see the logic in the above statement.
And the housing mania that we just experienced reflected this and the housing mania also helped release, via equity cash-outs, the money needed to finance the part of the economy that is housing dependent. That’s why we - and a big chunk of the rest of the world had a boom.
But the mania has run its course, has exhausted itself, so now the economy is in the “Now What?” stage. If ever rising housing prices are not there to power the economy that what is there to take its place? The PTB are desperate to fire up the housing mania again because that seems to be all they know.
People who rent, or the landlords who get homes ready to rent, also need to furnish homes. It isn’t so much whether people are buying homes are renting them, as that they are legitimately occupying them and paying for the right to do so.
I can’t imagine an army of deadbeats living in homes with defaulted mortgages are doing much to stimulate the economy, even though they are, technically, homeowners.
So in short, I find the argument that homeownership is generally good for the economy to be specious. It’s only good if the owners actually have the income stream needed to cover their mortgages and other ownership costs.
Now that I hit the send key, I realize I left off a crucial point, which is that an unsustainable rate of multiple home purchases by individual households at ever increasing price levels gave the appearance of providing a fantastic level of economic stimulus right up until the day the boom collapsed into bust. If aided and abetted by myriad government subsidies to grow to a cancerous share of overall economic activity, the housing sector can just as easily lead the economy into a depression as provide sustenance.
“As the leading advocate for homeownership, Realtors will continue to urge lawmakers to make sure housing and homeownership issues are a top priority on the nation’s public policy agenda. The American dream of homeownership needs to be alive for generations to come.”
For you lawmakers, think think tanks and their minions who are reading… here is a question for you.
How many of you are accepting Realtor bribes and ruling on behalf of NAR and Realtors?
Lots of lawmakers also spew volumes of REIC propaganda and push legislation to favor the REIC’s interests in exchange for political bribes, which are euphemistic called “campaign contributions” or “free speech.”
Probably most of them. Not sure if Bernie Sanders or Ron Paul take those bribes.
Still hung up on and getting played by the system on the false dichotomy of parties huh Nick? You’ll wise up someday…. hopefully.
Slow down there professor…Bernie Sanders is a Socialist and Ron Paul is a libertarian Republican…I was guessing that they are probably the only two in Washington that do not take Realtor bribes. Have no proof, too lazy to look it up, just guessing.
No problem.
Peace
Hey Ben
I have just read your article in The Globe and Mail (Sat. April 14, 2012).
I have come to your blog to let you know that I believe you are right on target with your analysis of the Canadian Housing Market. Our smug Canadian attitude is that we are somehow better than the Americans and that their misfortunes will not affect us in the Great White North.
I have been a homebuilder for the last 27 years in the Niagara Region in Southern Ontario. I have seen many ups and downs over the years and have recently sold all land holdings ( at ridiculous markups ) and have not done any speculative construction for the last 14 months. When I began building homes at the age on 22 in 1985 the market timing was perfect and I was all in on the deal. Then 1990 happened and the market crashed after approximately 6 years of steady growth. Then five years of hell ensued. The market never gave us this much notice (as it is now) and within 90 days nothing sold. This boom started in 2001 and has risen rather meteorically. Many builders have never seen the down side of the building industry and felt like I did in 1989. Construction has always been feast or famine and nothing in between.
This building boom in Canada has gone on twice as long as the late eighties and its unwinding and de leveraging will be deeper and longer in proportion. The pendulum always over corrects in it’s “return to the Norm”. I predict a Canadian home price correction relative to 1999 prices! That is roughly two years before the current bubble started and is most likely to correct to. I believe the impetus will be China and the bubble (just like Japan in the eighties) will burst and will cause a” Great Global Deflation”.
Get liquid and out of debt. You will be greatly rewarded for your patients and live large with cash. Don’t buy things just because they are cheap, they will get cheaper.
I feel better now that I have (for the first time vented publicly…..)
Welcome to the blog.
Your analysis of the time frame from the 1980’s to current is spot on. The cycle on a timeline is exactly what we saw in the northeast for the last 3 decades. However, years 1995-1999 are difficult to characterize. What I observed for that time frame was out of character sales at inflated prices but sporadic. There weren’t enough inflated sales to even get anyones attention…. they occurred under the radar so to speak. The tech wreck of 2000-2001 interrupted what would have been broad scale sales at inflated prices like 2002-2010. In hindsight, I think the base of housing, at least in the northeast, formed post 1990/1991 recession to roughly 1995. By then, the plans were in place to inflate the hell out of housing. Thus, my assertion is prices will ultimately roll back to 1995 levels, wage inflation adjusted of course.
Yes, I agree with his Canadian analysis as well. Even our Finance Minister has now said that every part of Canada’s housing industry, including Vancouver - but not yet Toronto - have slowed down, and the index says that it has for the last three months as well. (I won’t bore you all but my analysis goes back several years before John’s) !
Sudbury - I too have been chasing Florida property but at a much lower price. My experience has been that there is adequate supply and that the prices around Orlando are coming down still. What might be happening is what one poster said this week about two types of properties - desirous and non desirous. As I have my own maintenance man I want a “beater” in a decent area so that I can change it to my needs. If I don’t buy soon I will be too old to enjoy that area.
Actually, it may be worse.
Canadian Banks already have a massive “TARP” built in to every loan.
I’m married to a Canadian and he’s no help at all…
Does anybody on here know what kind of loans they are making up there? My position is they cannot possibly require 20% down on every home loan if prices are shooting up so much. I could be wrong, but I doubt it.
So long as you have all-cash Chinese investors in the game, why would 20% down stop prices from shooting to the moon?
I cannot overstate my gleeful anticipation regarding the incipient collapse of the Chinese real estate bubble, and its consequences to West Coast North American investment capitals like Vancouver and San Francisco. It’s going to be “worse than expected,” for sure!
Canadian real estate - a piggy bank for Chinese investors
KERRY GOLD
Vancouver— From Saturday’s Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Jun. 10, 2011 12:07PM EDT
Last updated Friday, Jun. 10, 2011 4:01PM EDT
Late last month, a 153-unit condo development in New Westminster sold out in two and a half hours.
More than 400 potential buyers lined up for the sales day. For every unit sold, there was at least one back-up offer made. There was nothing overtly special about the project, which will be completed by fall 2012.
…
The only thing the 20% down requirement does is to provide legitimate buyers the opportunity to lose 20%+ of the value of their “investment” once the bubble collapses and their loans go underwater.
First sign of impending bubble collapse: Smart money sells all, sits back, watches and waits.
And waits. And waits.
Sam Zell comes to mind as a smart money seller. From a NY Times article dated February 6, 2009:
It was, for a brief shining moment, the real estate deal of the century. In 2007, Sam Zell, the billionaire Chicago investor, sold a portfolio of 573 properties he had assembled over three decades, Equity Office Properties Trust, to the Blackstone Group for $39 billion. It was the largest private equity deal in history, but Blackstone did not stop there: it immediately flipped hundreds of the buildings for $27 billion.
I live in Vancouver area and it is crazy. Single houses on the westside going over $2-4 million, bidding prices going over $300k asking. This mostly by offshore Chinese buyers causing single family homes being unafforadbale so that the locals which make $50-100k can only afford condominiums and townhouses that range from $500k-to $1 million. In my neighbourhood standard 50×120 lot is going for 1.2 million and that is lot value/tear down. I totally agree with Ben Jones, it will be like the Japan collapse - remember when they owned everything in Hawaii? For some reason the Canadians feel they are immune to speculation but history will repeat itself.
“This mostly by offshore Chinese buyers causing single family homes being unafforadbale so that the locals which make $50-100k can only afford condominiums and townhouses that range from $500k-to $1 million.”
Holy smokes. Canadians call 10x income affordable? Yikes.
“creditworthy buyers are still being denied their dreams of owning a home because they cannot qualify for a loan”
If they were truly creditworthy, wouldn’t they therefore qualify for a loan? The lack of critical thinking is astounding.
Here is the credit score info (cut and paste) directly from the FHA website. For the record, a credit score 580 will probably get you declined for financing at a big box store for a TV, couch etc. For FHA, its enough to get you 96.5% financing on a $700k home.
FHA link http://www.fha.com/fha_article.cfm?id=200
“Generally speaking, to get maximum financing on typical new home purchases, applicants should have a credit score of 580 or better. Those with credit scores between 500 and 579 are, according the the FHA guidelines, “limited to 90 percent LTV”.
Screw the credit. Drop the price.
Because there’s a big honkin’ difference between being creditworthy and having enough cash for a down payment.
“…Realtors will continue to urge lawmakers to make sure housing and homeownership issues are a top priority on the nation’s public policy agenda.”
The government’s involvement in housing is what got us here in the first place. There’s no constitutional mandate for this. It’s one interest group benefiting at the expense of another with congress making money in the middle.
with congress making money in the middle
Lawmakers enriching themselves is the genesis of this. Everything else are symptoms.
In the last five years, the only thing that has improved for most people is the value of their house.’”
I almost feel sad for the Canadians.
Yeah - where have I heard this before…?
“One bright light is that almost two-thirds of Canadians said their house or condo is worth more than it was in 2007. But this dependence on house prices to prop up individual net worth also has a dark lining, Mr. Herle said. ‘If you took away house prices, people … would be in really difficult financial straits. In the last five years, the only thing that has improved for most people is the value of their house.’”
I almost feel sad for the Canadians.
You should read, “Ten Lost Years.”
After trying to purchase real estate in S.Florida for the past four months in the 3-400k range, I can assure you property is selling and values are on the up swing. This is not a blip. The way I understand it gov’t incentives to reduce the number of short sales and foreclosures are expired at the end of this year which will only improve the USA real estate market.
As for the Canadian real estate, haven’t heard or seen much with speculators purchases which drove up USA real estate very rapidly.
Thanks! I can add to the list:
‘buy now while you can’, ‘prices are still way below where they ought to be’, ‘new homes’ prices are bound to go up, too’, ‘we’re paying money toward something we own instead of throwing it away on renting’, ‘Buyers feel a sense of urgency to get into this market.’ ‘History says prices are likely to rise. By not acting now, certain buyers run the risk of being priced out down the road’. ‘This is diamonds in the rough …neighborhoods that will skyrocket in value’
‘values are on the up swing. This is not a blip’
This second round may be more fun to watch than the first.
While there are good vacation rental property deals, In my situation, when I do the math owning a vacation home makes more fiscal sense.
“After trying to purchase real estate in S.Florida for the past four months in the 3-400k range, I can assure you property is selling and values are on the up swing.”
WELLS FARGO BANK NA will be glad to hear that because they just delivered me (The UNKNOWN TENANT) an LP in the house I have been renting for the last 2+ years in a Tequesta neighborhood that is currently listing in the 3-400k. Now they delivered me the first LP 2 months after I moved in but the DB LL recieved their NOT (workout) on 11/05/2010 after collecting rent and not paying for a year. Now the DB LL has another year of tax free income under his belt but it looks like that will soon be coming to an end. I moved here from another S.Florida neighborhood where the LL did the same thing and there are many still doing it.
The reason WELLS FARGO BANK NA will be happy is the other 5 or 6 houses in this 3-400k neighborhood where people have been living payment free for years must be on the up swing too. Why this must mean that the $300k in 2001 house that friends of ours have been living in without making a payment in 4 years is on the up swing too! There are 10s of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of these all over SE Florida, although you are going to have a tough time getting that out of a Realtor short of Water Boarding.
I search the Jupiter-Palm Beach Gardens area realestate listings every week and have been actively doing so since late 2004. Most of the listings have been there for years and are virtually ALL still overpriced. When a close to decent house is listed it is gone in a day and was probably an already set up deal by some honest Realtor. I wish you the best of luck but if you listen to Ben Jones you will probably save yourself a couple of hundred thousand dollars.
The artist formerly known as….
jeff saturday
“Why this must mean that the $300k in 2001 house that friends of ours have been living in without making a payment in 4 years is on the up swing too! There are 10s of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of these all over SE Florida, although you are going to have a tough time getting that out of a Realtor short of Water Boarding.”
Wait a minute — aren’t all these people in Florida in mortgage default technically homeowners? And isn’t homeownership good for the economy?
How are these thousands upon thousands of homeowners who stopped paying their mortgages helping the economy? Is it through their consumption spending, which is funded out of the money saved by not making their mortgage payments?
If any of the many economic experts out there who understand how homeownership makes the economy run better could please clear up the mystery for me, I would be eternally indebted.
I can appreciate your comments, however that still doesn’t explain the fact that out of 25 homes we looked at 2 months ago on Marco Island 34145 that were within our price range all have contracts pending. Some houses that came on the market after we left have been getting multiple offers
These buyers are global, swedes, Brits, Canadians. I am of the opinion although real estate prices may not appreciate dramatically in he next 3 years, they have certainly bottomed out.
Prices are falling cupcake.
We can’t actually stop you from making a big mistake. So go ahead and make it. All paths have roadkill. It’s pretty much a requirement.
Tire kickers are a dime a dozen. We’ll be using our new vacation home for years to come, building equity in it while you’re still renting. Have fun
***SHILL ALERT***
How is “equity built” when prices are falling?
You seem reticent to respond to any questions.
Why is that?
Rent? I bought for cash in 2008 when the local market really collapsed, so I won’t have to pay a landlord or lender for the rest of my life. That’s about 40 years of not making those people rich.
Meanwhile, while you falsely believe that you’re “building equity”, you’re just making a lender rich. You’re a renter, pal. You RENTED A LOT OF MONEY in order to buy well beyond your capital means.
Keep making that mistake. Your eventual foreclosure will help drive prices DOWN.
building equity in it while you’re still renting.
Whee! It’s like the blog is starting all over!
It’s amazing the level of desperation realtors will go to. With 25,000,000 excess empty housing units and sales at 14 year lows the notion that there is any sense of urgency is laughable.
“25M”
If that is an actual data point, not a round figure or guesstimate, please post your source.
Here’s 18 million of it.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/195667-potential-shadow-housing-inventory-now-at-18-million
‘But, in the interview, Humphries was referring to the second category only and the 10 million figure came from a simple calculation that, based on a recent survey, eight percent of homeowners are very likely to sell their property if market conditions improve.
Take that potential 10 million and add it to the potential 8 million homeowners who are likely to lose their home through the foreclosure process as detailed in a number of recent reports on the “foreclosure pipeline” and you get a whopping 18 million for the shadow inventory.’
I have far more positive feelings towards Humphries than most of the MSM-favored real estate experts, as his statements seem to reflect an attempt to avoid hype in favor of reality.
I also concur that it is important to not just look at vacant homes or homes with defaulted mortgages, but also to consider the army of soon-to-downsize Baby Boomers who will be trying to find buyers for their empty-nest McMansions over the next couple of decades. The effective shadow inventory is far larger than suggested by limiting the count to homes entering the supply chain due to distress or other reasons related to the Great Recession (e.g. walkaways).
Finally, I don’t have any statistics to back this up, but I am guessing the problem is bigger now than it was two years ago when the 18M figure was floated, as the demand side of the market has not recovered much, so the supply side just keeps on getting more and more constipated…
Also worth asking: Might there be a degree of deliberate under reporting of shadow inventory, in order to mislead prospective buyers into believing the housing crisis is over, and it is safe to buy now?
Nah — the NAR would never allow it!
Here in the Tampa Bay, east Hillsborough County area, people ARE buying houses. This is anecdotal on my part, but every weekend I have a little gig that brings me into contact with homeowners and I have spoken to an ungodly number who have recently purchased homes. I consider three or four a day to be ungodly. Much of this activity is short sale, foreclosure related. I did speak to one guy today who just built a home, it’s not even on GPS yet.
My thoughts on this is that it’s a combination of pent up demand and perception that people are getting deals. 50% of bubble prices or less. Mainly younger buyers. Some have told me that it has taken as much as a year to consummate the sale. And then comes the renovation part. Some people are gutting their houses and re-doing the interiors. I really don’t have a feel for how much they’re spending to renovate. In some cases it’s just paint and bathroom stuff, in others it’s whole hog. For those doing major renos, I just wonder how much of deal they’re really getting if they have to gut and re-do.
What’s your point? Nobody said there weren’t sales. The truth is sales volume is at 1997 levels or 15 year lows. Again… your point?
““Realtors also would like to see more financing opportunities for buyers. Increased fees and higher down payments are making it difficult for many creditworthy buyers to obtain financing.””
How much easier can the government make it? How about no down and no payments for five years, followed by a 100year mortgage at 2% with a 400 minimum FICO. Would that be enough to satisfy your selfish greedy appetite for other people’s money? Eff you!
They are doing all they can to restart the inflation of the Housing Balloon. That’s it. “Everyone” wants to make easy money again by “buying” a house and then flipping it 18 months later for 40% more.
We’re still in the Denial phase of dealing with Housing Grief. This sort of crap will just continue until the 2030s. Myself, I can’t wait to see actual Anger.
My prediction: Anger before prices bottom out.
And you are right — we haven’t really seen it much yet…
Most of you fail to take in account real estate varies greatly depending on the area so to generalize that all real estate markets are created equal is false and misleading.
Based on many of the comments, few of you have actually pursued purchasing real estate in select makets, all you have to offer is “beware the sky is falling”
Tire kickers are a dime a dozen.
The most laughable part with these comments is some of you blame everybody from real estate agents to financial institutions to government, all while pretending to be some kind of “expert” with no worldly experience in anything except blogging that the sky is falling and anybody who buys real estate is a fool.
‘pretending to be some kind of “expert” with no worldly experience in anything’
We’ve got a live one.
Do you mean expert, like all the experts that dismissed the housing bubble for years right up until it took down the economy, hundreds of corporations and millions of “owners” that went into default?
You don’t have to be an expert to spot a bubble.
I didn’t say you had no worldly experience in anything.
The fact that you are posting on here says to me that you are nervous. Canada has one hell of a bubble going, so I don’t blame you.
Nick. I am posting on here because the G&M gave Ben some free publicity so I thought I’d check it out and I gave my two sense. Nothing more nothing less.
No worries Investing is not or the weak minded and is not for everyone.
I gave my two sense
What about your other three senses? Are they more accurate?
“to generalize that all real estate markets are created equal is false and misleading”
All national RE markets were equalized to an important degree due to the national banking market, which itself was equally equalized due to national (even world) investment market. Investment and lending directly drove speculation in all RE markets across the nation, leading to a national housing deflation.
You can’t be this ignorant, can you? I guess you can.
“…all you have to offer is “beware the sky is falling”…”
For good measure, I always try to back up my posts with a reputable source, unlike this Canadian troll fresh from dumb-ass ranch.
Case-Shiller home price index hits new post-financial crisis low
January’s dip in the widely followed index is the latest sign that the housing market continues to hunt for a bottom even as sales pick up.
March 28, 2012|By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times
A key measure of home prices in large U.S. cities fell to a new post-financial crisis low in January, the latest indication that the housing market continues to hunt for a bottom even as sales pick up.
…
Boy, are you ever dum.
(*Kicks tire as it continues to deflate. Flips off used car salesman.*)
Get back to us when your cheery presumptions have been overridden by your reality. We’ve heard your plaint from so many people over the years — and chortled, despairing over the detritus you’ve left– that some of us have lost patience with your ilk’s naivety.
As for “worldly investors” you’ve outed yourself completely with your canned rhetoric and silly sloganeering. It’s obvious you have no idea who you’re writing to here.
Pardon us for not swallowing your real tor’s bs. It’s NOT different there. Real estate is NOT local– particularly in Florida swampland(!) And the bottom is nowhere yet to be seen. (*Kicks tire once more for emphasis.*)
Enjoy.
“with no worldly experience in anything except blogging that the sky is falling and anybody who buys real estate is a fool.”
Last 10 days in SE Florida
Real Estate Reporter
•E-mail Kimberly Miller here
•Call Kimberly Miller at 561-820-4435
•http://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/realtime/
The zombie files: Nearly 7,000 stagnating foreclosure cases lie dormant in Palm Beach County’s courts
10:39 PM Saturday, April 14, 2012
Bank of America’s payoff to Florida homeowners draws 678 short sales
9:42 PM Friday, April 13, 2012
Mortgage aid slow to flow from Hardest Hit program
9:12 PM Thursday, April 12, 2012
Real Time: Hardest Hit foreclosure prevention program slammed by inspector general
10:01 AM Thursday, April 12, 2012
Foreclosures, repos up from last year in South Florida
12:21 AM Thursday, April 12, 2012
‘Tsunami’ of foreclosure complaints swamps Fla. Bar
8:05 PM Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Real Time: ProPublica foreclosure song is the new Schoolhouse Rock
9:27 AM Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Firm sells former foreclosures in bulk
6:47 PM Monday, April 9, 2012
Real Estate Asset Disposition Corp. specializes in selling bank-owned homes, but with foreclosure inventory shrinking, the company is turning to bulk sales to buoy business.
Palm Beach County foreclosure filings surge in March
6:08 PM Friday, April 6, 2012
Lenders filed to foreclose on 1,502 Palm Beach County homeowners in March, a 65 percent increase from the same time last year and up 25 percent from February.
“Robert Feinson, whose case has sat idle since November 2010, more than two years after his lender initially filed for foreclosure against him.”
Lets see 2010 - 2+ years = at best 2008 and 1 year of no payments before they filed = at best 2007 and this is 2012 = 4+ years of no house payment for Robert the Deadbeat who says……
“I have no idea what’s going on and I’m not pushing it,”
The zombie files: Nearly 7,000 stagnating foreclosure cases lie dormant in Palm Beach County’s courts
By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 10:40 p.m. Saturday, April 14, 2012
“I have no idea what’s going on and I’m not pushing it,” said Robert Feinson, a Jupiter resident whose case has sat idle since November 2010, more than two years after his lender initially filed for foreclosure against him. “Right now, we’re just waiting to see who is going to make the next move.”
I just heard the weekly real estate segment on DC News radio with a top local realtor. Apparently some sort of redevelopment is going on in some area and he’s urging buyers to just get in there and buy, because in ten years, this neighborhood is going to be really hot. And now’s the a great chance to get in on the ground floor. The realtor pointed out a few other neighborhoods which have benefited from redevelopment as examples. Just get in there and buy was his (of course) message.
My thought: Hey, if someone wants to speculate on this, great. Power to them. They’re taking the risk, and if it pans out, they should get the reward. BUT - what frosts my cookies is when someone does speculate like this and it fails, their lender winds up picking my pocket anyway and making money regardless! What a country! “In Soviet Russia, government control banks!”
Benny, You want speculation start a gold bug forum.
I’m only speaking from my own personal experience of trying to purchase real estate in south Florida. I know many people who have purchased 2b and 2b condo in pompano/lauderdale area on big water for 80-90k. if you honestly believe that is a bubble waiting to burst, keep blogging cause you’ll never make in business.
My parents named me Ben.
You’re mixing up a lot of data and assumptions.
‘a bubble waiting to burst’ I said Florida had a bubble when every almost expert thought I was nuts for saying so. What I am saying is that there is still some room to fall in Florida. Lot’s of room to fall in other places and still outright insane prices (and buying behavior) in others.
‘I know many people who have purchased 2b and 2b condo in pompano/lauderdale area on big water for 80-90k.’
When? At what terms? Then you go on with more assumptions. Why don’t you start snapping up all these bargains and laugh all the way to the bank? But just so you know, one of the businesses I run forecloses on fools that bit off more than they could chew. So if you are wrong, someone like me will haul your junk to the dump if and when you walk away.
Purchased within the last 4 months and non financed which has to be done in most cases for foreign buyers.
The reason I am not snapping these up is because I am only looking to purchase one house in wam climate. The USA is a good stable country, you can drink the water, you eat the same food and you can speak the same language which cannot be said for all warm climate countries.
Only the market will dictate whether prices in the areas I inspected have further room to fall.
Prices are falling kiddo.
“Only the market will dictate whether prices in the areas I inspected have further room to fall.”
Actually, it depends a lot on the U.S. federal government’s willingness and ability to keep artificially propping up the market. I’m hoping they pull the plug in order to let too-clever-by-half foreign investors like yourself take the losses off the hands of the U.S. taxpayer.
Thanks for willingly catching yourself falling knife real estate investments before this happens.
“Why don’t you start snapping up all these bargains and laugh all the way to the bank?”
I remember Ben offering our former poster Eddie similar helpful advice on his Atlanta real estate investing ideas. I wonder how that worked out for Eddie?
Judging from this recent article, it really is different there in Atlanta.
The New Economy
Home prices stabilizing. So what’s wrong with Atlanta?
Home prices in some cities show some signs of stabilizing. But in Atlanta, the decline in home prices is accelerating.
By Laurent Belsie, Business Editor / March 27, 2012
A new home for sale stands under construction in a development Friday in Atlanta. Home prices are declining at an accelerating pace in metro Atlanta, but in some areas, the market is tight and new homes are selling.
Home prices in Seattle, Minneapolis, and Denver have begun to trend upward in the past few months, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller housing indices. Even hard-hit metro areas such as Tampa, Fla., and Phoenix have seen a modest rebound.
But in Atlanta home prices not only continue to fall, the declines are accelerating. They now stand at a 14-year low.
That artifact should give homeowners pause, especially those who expect a quick rebound in housing. Nationally, prices haven’t been this low since 2003. In Atlanta, they haven’t been this low since early 1998.
“Atlanta continues to stand out in terms of recent relative weakness,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Indices, in a statement. Of the 19 cities tracked in January, Georgia’s largest metro saw prices fall 2.1 percent from a month earlier and a whopping 14.8 percent over the last year, the biggest year-on-year decline since the depths of the Great Recession..
So is Atlanta an oddity – or a troubling signal that other homeowners should worry about?
“Atlanta’s a real quirky market,” says Hank Miller, real estate broker and certified appraiser based in Roswell, Ga. With no natural boundaries, developers expanded wildly during the housing boom, so that outer suburbs in the south and near Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport are awash in homes that are depressing prices. But in many suburbs north of the city, “it’s actually a very tight and stable market, stable to the point that people are building new homes. I’ve got three new homes under contract for over $500,000 in the last two weeks.”
…
Atlanta may be suffering because it spread to infinity and now the gas prices are making the exurbs untenable.
Your restraint, Ben, is admirable. This poor boy’s on a collision course with his own stupidity, but at least he paid cash.
“Benny”
It didn’t take Livefrom very long to adopt a pejorative tone.
No pejorative tone here. Ben has started an interesting form, however my grass roots experience in South Florida has led me to a different opinion.
The way I see it looking for a deal in real estate is no different than looking for deal in anything else.
“…cause you’ll never make in business.”
Keep pimping real estate investments, cause you’ll never make in English.
Do you throw real bombs
Your posts make me wish I did.
Suddie Boy said: “bubble waiting to burst”
No, it was a balloon, and it already started to deflate, and it will continue deflating. There might actually be places that have bottomed, but those will then stagnate for a long time; decades, probably. But that’s not why people in your area are buying (i.e. money-renting).
People like you are rare, in that you deny a housing balloon ever happened. I look forward to further trouncing your so-called arguments.
Cantankerous
Sudbury is a union town, a lot of French speaking, and they don’t take anything from anybody. It also has stood in for a practise area for moon landings (they look alike). But the fishing around Sudbury is great and the people are really nice too.
Live’s viewpoint of Florida unfortunately is very typical of us Canadians. Even my youngest daughter goes down every month to “invest” (gamble) in a condo. Luckily, so far she has seen thru the froth.
We Canadians cannot believe how cheap your real estate is and consider it a good deal ! Each time it goes down ! ! !
Well, people who buy on the way down are necessary to the liquidation process. They buy, then hold, then sell at a loss in disgust… to another delusional Suddie Boy like they were, 1.5 to 3 years before. These sorts of people are very talkative at first, then they grow sullen as time proves them wrong, and then they vanish, unable to man up and accept they made a big mistake.
“…are necessary to the liquidation process.”
Lawd bless and keep the knifecatchers!
The interesting twist on the Canadian real estate bubble is that “We are NOT America” is pretty much the national motto of Canada. This is pounded into their heads to such an extent that the fact that the US has had a real estate bubble and bust almost proves to them that they won’t have one.
It would be in violation of the Canadian Dream.
Great discussion. As another Canadian who is about take the plunge in south Florida real estate, I am cwertainly not looking to make a quick speculative buck.
With the CDN$$ at par with the USA$$ and prices down 50% from their peak it is certainly a great time to buy for us. And our mindset personally and as Canadians in general is to buy and hold and be chill about it. Althopugh retirement is still 10 years out for me, I fully acknowledge home values are going to bounce around the bottom for a while, but so what? I have a vacation home 30 seconds from one of the nicest beaches in North America in the warm Atlantic Ocean and I can have friends families use the condo at their leisure And I can cheer against the Miami Dolphins..
Great discussion. As another Canadian who is about take the plunge in south Florida real estate, I am cwertainly not looking to make a quick speculative buck.
With the CDN$$ at par with the USA$$ and prices down 50% from their peak it is certainly a great time to buy for us. And our mindset personally and as Canadians in general is to buy and hold and be chill about it. Although retirement is still 10 years out for me, I fully acknowledge home values are going to bounce around the bottom for a while, but so what? I have a vacation home 30 seconds from one of the nicest beaches in North America in the warm Atlantic Ocean and I can have friends families use the condo at their leisure And I can cheer against the Miami Dolphins..