The Last Point Of Sanity
WMBF reports from South Carolina. “Realtors in the Grand Strand say foreclosures in the housing market are beginning to taper off, and now is the time for potential home buyers to look at properties. There are still some foreclosures in the housing market, keeping some home prices lower than their actual value. ‘It’s more in the condo market than single family homes,’ said Tom Maeser, a statistician with the Coastal Carolina Association of Realtors. ‘But it’s a problem because it drives prices down.’ That can mean some trouble for people trying to sell condominiums in the Grand Strand. The condo market makes up 66% of the area’s housing market, and it still hasn’t stabilized.”
“‘Buyers are seeing a great opportunity to buy,’ said Tom Maeser, a statistician with the Coastal Carolina Association of Realtors. ‘Prices couldn’t be better.’”
The News Press in Florida. “Homes will continue selling and prices are beginning to climb, a panel of experts reassured a sold-out crowd of 250 at Friday’s Naples Area Board of Realtors’ inaugural economic summit. This past week, Cindy Carroll, VP of Carroll & Carroll Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants in Naples, appraised two houses that resold for the same prices they had in early 2005. ‘In the next 12 to 24 months, our property values in most areas, I think, (are going to) return back to our 2004 levels, to that last place in the market, that last point of sanity before the uptick, and I think that’s going to happen in some market areas quicker than you might think,’ Carroll said.”
“John Tucillo, Florida Realtors chief economist, believes it’ll take more than three years for distressed properties to sell. ‘It’s not going to be a disruptive force,’ he said.”
The Bradenton Herald in Florida. “Several years ago as the Manatee County housing market crashed, Eric Marsh lost his construction job. But Tuesday he was with a new company, Paradise Homes, at a Country Club East construction site. Marsh is now serving as construction superintendent for nine new homes under construction. ‘It feels like 2005 and 2006,’ he said.”
“Thus far this year, the average sales price of a new home in Lakewood Ranch is $385,000. There are 60 inventory homes available and about 200 homes under construction, an SMR press release said.”
The Herald Tribune. “Native Sarasotan and board-certified real estate attorney, Thomas Luzier has been in practice for more than two decades. Correspondent Chris Angermann interviewed him in his office. Q:What is the current state of real estate? A:Since the beginning of last year, the residential market has been taking off again, and it’s amazing to see what seems to be happening in terms of the volume — how busy the Realtors and lenders are. It’s almost like 2004-05, thankfully without the speculative frenzy.”
The Naples News in Florida. “Construction has started on three villa residences at the Villas of Traditions at Grey Oaks. The collection of single-family residences range from 2,642 to 4,476 square feet under air and are priced from $690,000 to the mid-$800s. The new decorator-ready villa residences are being built on spec.”
The News Chief in Florida. “Bob Anarumo, a Davenport-based Realtor, said foreign buyers make up about 75 percent of his clientele. Anarumo said many of his clients originate from England and Canada, but he is seeing more business coming from Brazil and China. Inman News said the top three countries of origin for foreign buyers of local homes are Canada (41.7 percent) the United Kingdom (21.9 percent) and China/Hong Kong (6.2 percent).”
“Quebec resident Richard Larocque purchased a house in Davenport in October 2009 and bought a second one about six months ago, paying roughly $100,000 for each. He rents one property to a long-term tenant and uses the other for a vacation home, renting it out to tourists when he’s not there. ‘I got some information that Florida housing prices were extremely down, so I went there for the first time in June 2009 to look at the area - I fell in love with it,’ said Larocque, 43, a sales manager for a building materials company. ‘The price of properties are still very affordable over there, versus here in Canada.’”
The Palm Beach Post in Florida. “Nearly 7,000 stagnating foreclosure cases lie dormant in Palm Beach County’s courts, creating a payment-free limbo for some homeowners but a stain of vacant and abandoned homes in deteriorating neighborhoods. The 6,927 zombie files make up about 17 percent of Palm Beach County’s 39,252 foreclosure cases.”
“‘I have no idea what’s going on and I’m not pushing it,’ said Robert Feinson, a Jupiter resident whose case has sat idle since November 2010, more than two years after his lender initially filed for foreclosure against him.”
WUSF News in Florida. “It takes on average 861 days - more than two years - to process a foreclosed property in Florida according to a National Public Radio report. Floridians can expect the estimated backlog of 383,000 foreclosed properties (as of January 2012) to grow even larger over the next few years according to the Florida Bar News: ‘State Courts Administrator Lisa Goodner told a legislative subcommittee that she expects the backlog of cases to grow by another 380,000 cases by 2016, which is when she expects foreclosures will return to their ‘normal’ rate of around 70,000 cases a year. For 2012-13, she predicted 165,000 foreclosure filings.’”
“‘The 750,000 is what we don’t think we have the resources to handle,’ she told the Senate committee.”
The Atlanta Journal Constitution in Georgia. “Unemployment in metro Atlanta has been slowly improving. After deep job losses between 2007 and 2010, the Atlanta unemployment rate improved from 9.9 percent a year ago to 9 percent in February. But the local housing market has not even hit bottom yet. The average sales price in metro Atlanta was down 2.1 percent in January, sliding to the lowest point since mid-1997, according to Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index. In the past year, average prices have dropped 14.8 percent.”
“‘In general, home prices are going to be the last thing to recover,’ said Christopher Herbert, director of research at Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Start with years of near-frenzied construction — the housing bubble — followed by a collapse of demand, dried-up credit and then a flood of foreclosures — and you’ve got a massive pool of supply, Herbert said.”
“‘As long as excess vacancies are there, they will continue to be a drag on home prices,’ he said.”
The Augusta Chronicle in Georgia. “More homes are selling in the Augusta area, but they are selling at lower prices and staying on the market for a longer time than the past few years. The average selling price for homes was $142,296 for this March, however, slightly less than the $146,037 average in March 2011 and $157,972 in March 2010.”
“Sherri Melton, an agent with Keller Williams Realty Augusta Partners, believes home construction is one of the biggest reasons existing homes are remaining on the market for a longer time. ‘For about $135,000, someone can get stainless appliances, granite and new everything,’ she said. ‘Compared to a house where everything is at least 10 years old, that’s hard to beat.’”
The Daily Home in Alabama. “The Realtor Nationwide Open House Weekend is April 28-29. Local Realtors will hold open houses all weekend, bringing buyers and sellers together. The Realtors will be available to answer consumer questions about the home buying process and local market conditions. Nicole Anderson, 2012 president of St. Clair Association of Realtors, said now is a great time to buy a house. Anderson said homeownership matters to individuals, families, communities and the nation’s economy.”
“‘The housing market plays a vital role in both the long- and short-term health of this country,’ she said. ‘Homeownership is not just an investment in your future; it’s an investment in the future generations to come.’”
“Lawrence Fields, with Fields Gossett Realty in Pell City, said it is exciting to have the open house weekend. ‘The housing market has been steady,’ he said. ‘We are still selling homes and closing them out. It’s not quite back to where it was before the economy crashed, but it was unreal the way homes were selling then.’”
The Augusta Chronicle in Georgia. “More homes are selling in the Augusta area, but they are selling at lower prices and staying on the market for a longer time than the past few years. The average selling price for homes was $142,296 for this March, however, slightly less than the $146,037 average in March 2011 and $157,972 in March 2010.”
“Sherri Melton, an agent with Keller Williams Realty Augusta Partners, believes home construction is one of the biggest reasons existing homes are remaining on the market for a longer time. ‘For about $135,000, someone can get stainless appliances, granite and new everything,’ she said. ‘Compared to a house where everything is at least 10 years old, that’s hard to beat.’”
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If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times….. Builders are eating resellers lunch and will continue to do so until deluded home-debtors attempting to sell price according to the market.
Not only that, but the land keeps getting cheaper:
‘Once appraised at more than $90 million, the former North Fort Myers Lochmoor Golf Course, now known as Paradise Preserve, was bought Friday by a California-based developer for $3-million.’
‘ORMOND BEACH — An investment group led by Vanacore Homes has purchased 72 single-family home lots for $1.2 million in the Halifax Plantation subdivision. Vanacore Homes plans to build 1,900-square-foot upscale patio homes with prices starting in the $180,000s.’
‘Serenity Pointe LLC will sell about half of its available lakeside, lake access or estate home building sites by absolute auction April 28. The sites will be sold using the high bidder’s choice method, meaning the first high bidder will get first choice out of 54 lots until 25 sites are sold. ‘We’re just trying to find the fair market value,’ Bone said. ‘It’s up to the bidders what the real property value is.’
Upscale patio homes…oxymoron anyone?
‘Once appraised at more than $90 million, the former North Fort Myers Lochmoor Golf Course, now known as Paradise Preserve, was bought Friday by a California-based developer for $3-million.’
In percentage terms, the land’s value is off by
(3/90-1)*100% = -96 2/3%.
Nice haircut!
“‘Buyers are seeing a great opportunity to buy’, said Tom Maeser, a statitisian with the Coastal Carolina Association of Realtors. ‘Prices couldn’t be better.’”
Prices can indeed be better: Prices can drop all the way down to FREE! Go to Bodie, CA and you can get all the RE you want for nuttin’. Same thing at Slab City.
Or, if you don’t mind paying up a bit, you can get a place in Detroit or Cleveland for a dollar.
Location, location, location results from money flow, money flow, money flow.
why would anyone want to live in detroit or cleveland? essentially no jobs. no stable jobs, who cares if you can get a house for a buck?
and at least a place like oil city is fairly safe and picturesque. can’t say this for detroit/cleveland. unless you consider all the abandoned buildings in detroit to be picturesque, like relics of a bygone era.
Oil City? Is this ByeFL? That guy should have worked for the Oil City Chamber of Commerce. Finally somebody lost patience, and told him to put a sock in it and move there if the place was so awesome.
I have a friend who lives in Cleveland. Her brother and mother live down the street and ’round the corner.
From what they tell me, Sis lives in a fairly decent nabe in Cleveland. However, I can’t help thinking that they’d be happier if she were out here.
why would anyone want to live in detroit or cleveland? essentially no jobs. no stable jobs, who cares if you can get a house for a buck?
And don’t forget the weather. Long cold winters and humid mosquito summers top off the “rust-belt.” Yeah…where’s the closing table?!
Take another 25% off their lowest price and you won’t lose too much ?
These stories from Florida are disastrous. We ran out of dumb money here, but Canadians and our own federal government have stepped in to keep house prices at a level that does not reflect our incomes or job security. During the bubble I would go to our local property appraiser website, and occasionally was amazed to find that owners of ordinary neighborhood homes listed mailing addresses in Ireland, the UK or Canada, but nothing like this.
While those of us not realtors despair over this revolting resurgence of human greed and stupidity, the foreign buyers are going to be fleeced like tourists falling for the shell game. And some self-satisfied moron has bought two houses in Davenport. Yeah, he “fell in love” with the area! Am I guaranteeing his mortgages?
There’s lots of tidbits here. Like this from the Palm Beach Post article:
‘The 6,927 zombie files make up about 17 percent of Palm Beach County’s 39,252 foreclosure cases. The banks with the largest number of dormant cases include Bank of America (670), JPMorgan Chase (602) and Deutsche Bank (546)’
So over 5,000 aren’t the big banks. Most paying attention to these things don’t realize how many smaller players are involved. Some of these are bankrupt. And how many of the BoA, Chase and DB houses are they just the loan servicer for? Anyhoo, 39,000 foreclosures in one county is significant. Which brings us to this little party:
‘Homes will continue selling and prices are beginning to climb, a panel of experts reassured a sold-out crowd of 250 at Friday’s Naples Area Board of Realtors’ inaugural economic summit. John Tucillo, Florida Realtors chief economist, believes it’ll take more than three years for distressed properties to sell. ‘It’s not going to be a disruptive force,’ he said.’
We should probably save that quote.
And this:
‘Cindy Carroll, VP of Carroll & Carroll Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants in Naples, appraised two houses that resold for the same prices they had in early 2005. ‘In the next 12 to 24 months, our property values in most areas, I think, (are going to) return back to our 2004 levels’
Even if this is true, let me pose a question. If I have a magic button that if pushed would bring all the bubble prices back. Every penny, right to the peak, do you think these REIC people would push it?
We’ve often heard them say, those prices weren’t sustainable. But I’d bet most would push that button. And what would that mean? Another crash? Millions more foreclosures, bank failures, bailouts? Would these people take us down that path just to make a few bucks?
And if we don’t push that button, what is the desired price? What the market determines? What is historically sustainable? What keeps wall street in the black or gets a president re-elected? Somehow, these questions have never really been discussed.
Somehow, these questions have never really been discussed.
They never get answered, period. You have know-it-alls foisting their opinion as an answer, pretty much a counterfeit, ignorant of the fact that doing so, they give a pass to those who are responsible to provide an answer.
Those who aren not answering the questions are protected, hiding and profiting. Those who are answering are being robbed blind.
We were told that the goal was to stabilize house prices. Now we hear, from an appraiser no less, that ‘two houses that resold for the same prices they had in early 2005′. I’m sure they wouldn’t lie.
How much more stabilizing do we need Mr Bernanke? Do you want even more spec building in Florida?
‘There are 60 inventory homes available and about 200 homes under construction…the average sales price of a new home in Lakewood Ranch is $385,000…construction has started on three villa residences…priced from $690,000 to the mid-$800s…being built on spec’
Again, what’s the target? Because if you let this thing go on, these people will push the magic bubble button.
From Colombia I surfed the net periodically and learned that an American magazine which purports to dispense educated opinions had anointed Bernanke, on its cover, as a hero. Even in an age when nearly everybody is a hero, that is disappointing, but magazine covers tend to be contrary indicators, meaning it’s likely all downhill from here for this person and the ideology he represents. But it’s too late regardless.
“…but magazine covers tend to be contrary indicators…”
Really?
Home $weet Home
June 13, 2005
Even in an age when nearly everybody is a hero, that is disappointing, but magazine covers tend to be contrary indicators, meaning it’s likely all downhill from here for this person and the ideology he represents.
It’s sort of like the Wheaties Box Jinx. Or the Sports Illustrated Cover Jinx.
Or, while I’m a roll with the sports analogies, how about the Heisman Trophy/So-so Pro Football Career jinx. That’s a pretty potent jinx.
Heh. I was thinking about that particular Time magazine cover when I was writing. I mean, the latest quotes from the real estate industry are so bad that I half expect David Lereah to emerge and claim vindication. This is who we saved!
6
Didn’t Business Week have a cover story entitled “The Death of Equities” back in late ‘81 or early ‘82?
“How much more stabilizing do we need Mr Bernanke? Do you want even more spec building in Florida?”
So long as the Fed has monopoly rights to the allocation of printing press monies, I guess they can support as much malinvestment in real estate as they choose?
From Colombia I surfed the net periodically and learned that an American magazine which purports to dispense educated opinions had anointed Bernanke, on its cover, as a hero.
“The people have always some champion whom they set over them and nurse into greatness…This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when he first appears he is a protector.” –Plato
‘The banks with the largest number of dormant cases include Bank of America (670), JPMorgan Chase (602) and Deutsche Bank (546)’
Busting the trusts may be the only way to clear the bad lending pipeline and restoring equilibrium to the housing market. Right now, these banks have way too much clout, which is enabling them to keep the entire U.S. housing market at near-comatose levels of activity.
We’ve often heard them say, those prices weren’t sustainable. But I’d bet most would push that button. And what would that mean? Another crash? Millions more foreclosures, bank failures, bailouts? Would these people take us down that path just to make a few bucks?
We are talking about commission junkies. Damned right, they’d loot their own country’s treasury for that 6% easy money.
Wow - Spot on…
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“‘In general, home prices are going to be the last thing to recover,’ said Christopher Herbert, director of research at Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Start with years of near-frenzied construction — the housing bubble — followed by a collapse of demand, dried-up credit and then a flood of foreclosures — and you’ve got a massive pool of supply, Herbert said.”
“‘As long as excess vacancies are there, they will continue to be a drag on home prices,’ he said.”
“Floridians can expect the estimated backlog of 383,000 foreclosed properties (as of January 2012) to grow even larger over the next few years according to the Florida Bar News: ‘State Courts Administrator Lisa Goodner told a legislative subcommittee that she expects the backlog of cases to grow by another 380,000 cases by 2016, which is when she expects foreclosures will return to their ‘normal’ rate of around 70,000 cases a year. For 2012-13, she predicted 165,000 foreclosure filings.’”
Too-clever-by-half Canadian snowbird investors who are currently snapping up deals in Florida are going to drown in future foreclosure inventory.
“There are still some foreclosures in the housing market, keeping some home prices lower than their actual value. ” What is this “actual value,” of which you speak? It is an illusion, a figment. At best it is a useful approximation, at worst a scam upon potential purchasers. What there is, is a price. The check that gets handed to the seller and/or their lender at closing. THAT is real. “actual value,” not so much.
“It’s a problem because it drives prices down.”
The problem is people who see lower prices as a problem.
Amazing isn’t it?
It’s amazing how quickly top economists are to support housing price stabilization with junk theory.
For sake of argument (this IS the internet after all) there’s nothing wrong with sellers regarding lower prices as a problem. They’re free to believe that. Just as purchasers are free to regard prices are too high. After all a sale only happens when the two can agree to a price.
We’re not talking about sellers, we’re talking about moneychangers, gov, and extra special people that get to pick the winners.
This wasn’t a seller, it a guy who works for the UHS.
’said Tom Maeser, a statistician with the Coastal Carolina Association of Realtors’
They see it as a problem because… well, with this wretched excess of housing, we just don’t have enough people buying that are going to live in the housing for a long period of time, sort of the “buy a home for life” thing. These sorts of buyers may be the minority of the housing market for decades to come. This is one of the truths that I don’t like admitting to myself. The American housing market may have been permanently ruined for we GenX-ers. We might never see the housing market returning to relying on “lifers”. And as jobs become permanently scarce, moving to follow the work may be a fact of life in the USA, hence it would be foolish to seek to “put down roots”. Housing will naturally flip due to turnover. Hence, housing will always be subject to speculators. Always.
Thanks for nothing, Mr Globalist, whoever you are. I hate you and hope you die in pain.