Bits Bucket for April 27, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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(Re)Elect Obamney
It’s a mile away to vote.
Can I really afford it?
Re elect Rombama
It’s not Robomny?
Reality is tuning out weaker than expected. Expect more printing.
Reality is less real than expected. (That better sums up how I currently feel.)
“R U a principal? Me wife just told me there are 7 retirements this year in Poway. Could be a good opportunity to get into a great district at the point when things look most dire; eventually even the currently defunct CA economy’s outlook will improve, if we all keep the faith…”
I made the awkward and sometimes fatal leap from teacher to district personnel. So, at some point I will need to go back and be an asst. principal for a year or two so that I can be a principal. That’s a demotion in a way — there are occasionally people that continue up the ladder without being an AP/Principal, but it usually comes back to haunt them as teachers (and everyone else, really) do not respect superintendents that have never run a school, especially a struggling one. It happens, but it’s rare.
There’s some movement in my district right now. I’ll either make a jump or wait until this time again next year.
Just in case…
Welcome to PUSD Online Job Search!
Thank you for expressing an interest in joining the Poway Unified School District.
Poway schools have received national and statewide recognition for excellence. PUSD has been identified as an exemplary model for commitment and quality programs, professional development and innovation in education.
The Poway Unified School District currently has 33,000 students in our schools. We have 25 elementary, 6 middle, 5 comprehensive high schools and 1 continuation high school.
…
I didn’t know it until recently, but I’ve been living the Poway for a long time.
Though the California economy may seem to look much like that of Greece, with no improvement on the horizon, this may be a hidden opportunity to join a great school district. One big selling point: Poway is a separate, though adjacent, municipality to San Diego, and is hence not under the umbrella of Enron-by-the-Sea’s budget woes. Poway has struggled through the Great Recession, but so far is doing better than many other California municipalities.
Muggy, where do you live now? I can extol the virtues of the PUSD, as well as the general area (other than of course the housing prices). We hope to eventually buy in RB or Poway.
Check out what Ackerman, former superintendent of SFUSD, did to Philly school district, which is now dissolving.
After a 900K severance, she has the nerve to file for unemployment!
http://www.myfoxphilly.com/dpp/news/local_news/ackerman-unemployment-shocks-taxpayers-112911
School district admin are as corrupt as they come. Don’t do it!
I would love nothing more than to teach integrated science at a struggling school, but I can’t raise a family on a teacher’s salary.
Unless, of course, house prices drop.
How about a HS principal’s job? (The RBHS principal position may already be spoken for at this point…)
“but I can’t raise a family on a teacher’s salary”
What? Wouldn’t that make you a “union goon”? Everyone know sthat union goons live lavishly!
I’d love to be a full time surf instructor, but you can’t raise a family on that either.
I’d love to be a full time surf instructor,
Should that be a comparable job to a science teacher?
I’d love to be a full time surf instructor, but you can’t raise a family on that either.
I am a part-time surf instructor. Barely pays anything, but I don’t care.
Money ‘aint everything.
“We believe housing has now entered recovery.”
“Analysts caution that the damage from the housing bust is deep and the industry is years away from fully recovering.”
(I will now try look for lyrics that work with “the housing bust is deep”)
Contracts for US homes rose last month
By Associated Press
Thursday, April 26, 2012
WASHINGTON — An index that tracks the number of signed contracts to buy U.S. homes rose to its highest level in nearly two years last month, the latest sign the battered housing market is slowly improving.
The National Association of Realtors said today that its index of sales agreements increased 4.1 percent last month to a reading of 101.4. That’s the highest since April 2010, when buyers could qualify for a federal home-buying tax credit. A reading of 100 is considered healthy.
The figures “bode well for existing home sales over the next couple of months,” said Joseph LaVorgna, an economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note to clients. “We believe housing has now entered recovery.”
January and February made up the best winter for completed sales in five years. Sales fell in March, but Thursday’s report suggests that drop will likely be temporary, LaVorgna said.
Even so, cancellations of sales contracts are running higher than normal, as many buyers struggle to obtain mortgages. That’s made the pending home sales figure a less reliable indicator.
And a backlog of foreclosures is expected to come on the market this year, weighing on home prices. Banks are stepping up foreclosures in about half the states. The increase comes after state officials settled a dispute in February with five of the biggest mortgage lenders over foreclosure abuses.
Analysts caution that the damage from the housing bust is deep and the industry is years away from fully recovering.
Potential buyers are holding off for a number of reasons. Despite the recent job gains, unemployment remains high. Many buyers can’t qualify for loans. Lenders are requiring higher credit scores and larger down payments.
And some who can qualify are hesitant to buy because they worry home prices will keep falling.
http://www.bostonherald.com/business/real_estate/view.bg?articleid=1061127311&srvc=business&position=recent -
(I will now try look for lyrics that work with “the housing bust is deep”)
Rod Stewart (I think) with “The first cut is the deepest.”
Or a Deep Purple song?
I thought it was Sheryl Crow.
(Checked on Wiki……you are right. A Cat Stevens song, covered by Stewart, Crow and a couple of others).
Realtors Are Clueless®
Don’t you need to have a clue in order to lie effectively?
Not when the target audience has been conditioned by years of “conventional wisdom” (which in reality is thoughtless repetitive quips).
It works like this……. Realtors Are Liars. Realtors Are Liars. Realtors Are Liars.
Not if you actually believe the lie.
Clues will then not get in your way.
“Realtors Are Clueless®”
I’m thinking I should add idiots, morons, liars or some other accurate description after “Clueless”.
“Jerry, just remember, It’s not a lie if you believe it”
- George Costanza
Contracts for US homes rose last month
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER The Associated Press
Posted: 10:11 a.m. Thursday, April 26, 2012
“Analysts caution that the damage from the housing bust is deep and the industry is years away from fully recovering.”
Blondie Lyrics » The Tide Is High Lyrics
The bust is deep but I’m holding on
I work for Century 21
I’m not the kinda girl who gives up just like that, oh no
It’s not that canceled contracts tease and hurt me bad
(Whoo, whoo, whoo)
I`ve got all cash buyers who will run to me
(Ah)
I’m not the kinda girl who gives up just like that, oh no
The bust is deep but I’m holding on
I work for Century 21
Twenty one, twenty one
Thank you, now I have an image of SMINOZIAK LYNN’s deep bust.
“Thank you, now I have an image of SMINOZIAK LYNN’s deep bust”
I`m going with Deborah Harry`s 1979 deep bust but to each his or her own.
Offers rise every spring and fall.
Basically they’ve just said that the weather has turned to spring… for those who missed it.
Old news is no news.
http://www.pionline.com/article/20120419/REG/120419842/in-apparent-first-a-public-pension-plan-files-for-bankruptcy
States and municipalities will have a hard time raising taxes to cover all the insolvent pension plans. If they do, they will face taxpayer revolts.
Kudos to Meredith Whitney.
Won’t BK of pensions help municipalities. ie they are making the retired worker take the pain not the rich bond holders.
Ooops, looks as if lots of people are going to have to learn to somehow do without the money they were promised.
What a surprise.
My neighbor just retired early with the hope of preserving his pension. My guess is he will be in deep doodoo within 3 years, and quite angry to boot. My guess is he will have a lot of company.
This going to be fun!
Retired people have LOTS of time on their hands to make trouble! and when you are that close to shuffling off this mortal coil, your whole attitude is “nothing to lose!”
But first, Act 1: the summer riots.
Can’t wait for the video of the riot police pepper spraying and whacking the old folks with truncheons.
USA! USA! USA!
Pensioners rioting? What do you expect, that they’ll be burning and overturning their Lark Scooters and Hoveround chairs?
“old folks”
can’t some firemen and police retire at like 38 or 40?
You’re going to be surprised at how many 55+ look and act a LOT younger than you think and have attitudes than make gang bangers look like wussies.
You’re going to be surprised at how many 55+ look and act a LOT younger than you think and have attitudes than make gang bangers look like wussies.
Which is why you should be very grateful that my mother isn’t using her cane much these days. In her hands, a cane can be a dangerous thing.
turkey lurkey
One thing for sure, as a newly minted 55 yo gal, I am in better shape than the younger gals I meet. Yeah, youth is always sexier, but they look like land whales. Not every health-wise either.
every=very typo
“Can’t wait for the video of the riot police pepper spraying and whacking the old folks with truncheons.
It won’t be the first time. Google Free Trade of the Americas Miami 2003 to see the “Miami Model” of policing in action
In her hands, a cane can be a dangerous thing.
There is a martial art that uses canes as weapons:
http://www.canemasters.com
Geez, you people take this stuff too personal………
Just play along.
Envision thousands of old farts in DC with their scooters and walkers shouting out “NO JUSTICE? NO PEACE!”.
Then marching down to Wahlgren’s, to loot the “Depends” and “Metamucil”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_model
“This term refers to the distinctive features of crowd control technique used in Miami, which included large scale pre-emptive arrests, heavily armed sometimes unidentifiable law enforcement, the collection of intelligence from protesters, and the “embedding” of corporate media with the police. Additionally, areas that are to be the site of a major event are given large federal grants to purchase materials for security. Thus, police may be unfamiliar with the use of the new equipment they have been given and rural police brought in to the city may be somewhat unfamiliar with crowd control tactics in general. Protestors and activists allege some of the following as further tactics belonging to the Miami model:
Establishment of joint, unified, multi-agency command/control network. Mass purchase of surveillance equipment, riot gear and other supplies. Training of local law enforcement in “crowd control tactics” and less lethal weapons. Public relations, “information warfare”, newspeak/spin: “terrorists/violent protesters coming” vs “well trained officers”. “event meaningful target for terrorism.” “police will protect the right to protest.” “anarchists and criminal elements”, dramatic Seattle WTO or London imagery.”
If they are actually in DC, make that a CVS and you are probably OK. Actually, the Mall is a great place for older people to protest. It is free to get into the museums and they all have air conditioning and bathrooms.
Retired people have LOTS of time on their hands to make trouble!
And they vote…more than any other age group
Can’t wait for the video of the riot police pepper spraying and whacking the old folks with truncheons.
Already happening:
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2011/11/84-year-old-woman-becomes-pepper-sprayed-face-occupy-seattle/45035/
“Then marching down to Wahlgren’s, to loot the “Depends” and “Metamucil”.”
I’d love to see how much of this wealth was taken in the form of management fees and crooked trading.
Seems odd that the FED will bail out big banks but retired folks who are paying due to FED ZIRP policy will be left to wither on the vine.
Sucks to be poor! Oops, I mean “let them eat cake!”
Sucks to be anyone in the bottom 99.99%
‘I imagine many of these people are not poor.
I’m convinced that the Golden Age of Retirement as we currently know it was 1950 - 2010. Outside that time period, the concept of retirement as currently defined (work 35 years as an adult, then play for 35 years) was/will be virtually unknown.
For 60 years of human history, in a few select countries, this mirage worked. Unfortunately, it was only a mirage, and we will soon return to the “work until death or disability” model.
BINGO.
Hello Chilly… Hows biz?
Also….. I got things narrowed down to a Godin Strat knock off. Very nice ax.
I’m convinced that the Golden Age of Retirement as we currently know it was 1950 - 2010. Outside that time period, the concept of retirement as currently defined (work 35 years as an adult, then play for 35 years) was/will be virtually unknown.
HBB Librarian alert siren goes off!
There’s a book called The Retirement Myth by Craig Karpel. It pretty much says what’s up above in the italics.
“……how much wealth was taken……”
Sort of like the South Park episode, where they open a savings account. (”……and……it’s gone!”)
A nice little math problem:
Client deposits $100K in a managed investment account. Assuming 0% gains (not an unreasonable assumption), and a 3% management/commission/transaction fee, how many trades does the broker have to make to transfer the $100K to his bank account?
How much profit/gain does the account have to show, before the owner makes more profit/gain than the broker?
we will soon return to the “work until death or disability” model.
Assuming you can hang onto a job in your old age. More like “move in with your kids” and work a P/T job to help them out with the bill.
we will soon return to the “work until death or disability” model.
Reminds me of a retired classroom teacher who used to sub at our school. Old as the hills. She would show up in HER SLIPPERS, shuffling around. I always thought she was hysterical, but the kids had a better than usual (crazy) sub day when she was assigned.
Sort of like the South Park episode, where they open a savings account. (”……and……it’s gone!”)
That was a good episode.
“We’ll make your money work hard for you!”
Taps on keyboard, transferred insured saving to risky investment account.
“And … it’s gone … next!”
The problem is that the retirement and SS model was based on, “Work for 40 to 45 years and retire for maybe 5 to 10.”
The “Work for 25 to 35 years and retire for 25 to 35″ model is never going to work.
BTW, nearly all private pensions are fixed for life. From what I read here and elsewhere that’s not the case for many if not most public employee pensions. What’s the case for someone who worked their career for the federal government as a GS- employee?
Fed pensions are adjusted for inflation, but the formula changed when the system changed.
Old system - not in Social Security (money that would have gone to Social Security went to the pension fund); pension is 2% per year of service based on average of top 3 (I think); base is your salary plus your area pay (people in NYC are paid more than people in Salt Lake City) and nothing else - no overtime, no bonus, no extra hours, n pay off of accumulated vacation, nothing; maximum of 80% no matter what and to get that you have to have worked for 40 years; inflation adjustment is pretty good from what people have told me.
New system - in Social Security (contribution to pension is smaller than for old system employees); pension is 1% per year of service based on average of top 3 (I think); base is your salary plus your area adjustment and nothing else - no overtime, no bonus, no extra hours, no pay off accumulated vacation, nothing; maximum of 40% no matter what and to get that you have to have worked for 40 years; inflation adjustment is called the “lite” version and reportedly is very inadequate.
Old system is only for people who were already employees in 1984, I think. Maybe 1985 or 1986.
I just answered this, but it was longish and may take a while to show up. As an addendum, the median age to start as a GS employee is mid-30s so to get the max pension which requires 40 years a lot of employees would have to work into their 70s.
And, for what it is worth, I am about 99% sure that the pension I didn’t stay long enough to earn at my last private sector job was inflation adjusted. People certainly talked about it as a significant benefit.
great find, thanks!
According to Zero Hedge, U.S. sovereign debt to GDP passed the 1:1 ratio at the end of March. Yes I know we have our own currency and a building full of printing presses, but how high can the ratio go before the house of cards collapses? 3:1? 10:1? 30:1?
This one goes up to 11.
But why don’t you just make it louder and leave the knob at 10?
But it goes up to 11, see?
but how high can the ratio go before the house of cards collapses?
How much inflation can the average joe tolerate?
With China trying match the USA I think the question is how much inflation can the average Tien tolerate. The third world is the canary.
Good point, they’re getting the brunt of it.
Do we have inflation with rising wages? Or stagflation?
Is this a trick question?
Has the greatest expansion of credit in history ended?
Is Bernanke’s helicopter fueled up?
How much inflation can the average joe tolerate?
About as much as you can imagine… until the cities start burning.
Until then, the sky’s the limit and sheep are meant to be fleeced.
BURN BABY BURN
April 25 (Bloomberg) — Sporting-goods behemoth Nike Inc. is pushing for elimination of the duties as part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, pledging to add thousands of high-paying jobs in marketing and sales. Megan Hughes reports on Bloomberg Television’s “In The Loop.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Will drive New Balance which makes some shoes in teh US out of business.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/91364116/
10 to one our gov sells manufacturing jobs again. F’n amazing.
pledging to add thousands of high-paying jobs in marketing and sales
Why would Nike need more marketing and sales people? And who says that some of the marketing jobs won’t be offshored as well?
Nikes future growth is in Asia so these jobs will be located in Asia and held by natives.
Just what we need……more people in marketing and sales.
I’m with you, X-GS. We have enough marketeers and sellers already. What we need are better products and services.
I’ve noticed the size of the sales and marketing staff is usually inversely proportional to the quality of the product.
Quality stuff sells itself.
Gold bug cargo cultists are still holding out hope for QE3.
When my kids were little, I was always highly entertained when my older son would promise his little brothers some kind of awesome prize if they did his bidding. Gold traders holding out hope for QE3 somehow reminds me of this behavior.
April 27, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Gold market takes big cues from the Fed
Whether the Fed undertakes more quantitative easing is key factor
By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — After an impressive run to a record high near $1,900 an ounce in August of last year, gold hasn’t been quite as exciting, but that may be changing with the market lately hanging on every whim or comment from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The gold market has been “seemingly boring, but rife with more upside potential and downside risk than most investors may realize,” said Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter.
From the start of this year, the chart of gold futures GCM2 +0.31% looked like a roller-coaster ride, beginning around $1,600 an ounce, gaining another $200 by the end of February and then trading in a tight range roughly between $1,600 and $1,700 for the last two months.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee policy statement and Chairman Ben Bernanke’s news conference “provided little fodder for gold bulls or bears,” said Lundin.
Wednesday’s post-Fed futures settlement showed only a $1.50 decline from a day earlier, but prices had fallen nearly $19 at one point to touch a low of $1,625. On Thursday, prices rallied over $18.
“After initially dropping upon the release of the statement, gold quickly rebounded,” Lundin said. “Obviously, quick-acting traders had […] searched the FOMC statement for any mention of quantitative easing and, having found none, sold gold. But a closer read, and Bernanke’s comments, reveal that the Fed, if anything, is more open to monetary stimulus now than at the last meeting.”
…
Gold bug cargo cultists are still holding out hope for QE3.
Twenty five years ago, a prominent lawyer friend-of-the-family told my father something that has stayed with him (and me) since.
“There are only two things worth holding onto in this world. Land and gold.”
Everything else is temporary…
For the record, every investor in gold that I know, myself included, could care less if QE3 occurs or not. Gold accumulation is for the long term, as insurance against debt default and hyperinflation.
Traders, on the other hand, look to signs of QE3 for market timing… they will trade GLD and other derivatives, as opposed to holding physical. Just another electronic gamble…
+1
Student Loans: The Next Bailout?
By: Kelly Evans
CNBC Reporter
Here’s what we do know about student loan debt: it’s roughly $1 trillion in size, greater than either auto or credit-card debt and second only to mortgage debt in the U.S.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47171658 - 148k
They HAVE to bail them out whether we like it or not for the same reasons they had to bailout the FIRE sector.
The pig men hold us hostage.
Student Loans: The Next Bailout?
For the banksters: of course.
For borrowers: fat chance.
For the federally guaranteed loans, the bank bailout is already in place. Nothing has to happen that hasn’t been there for decades.
You mean besides the extra zeros?
Top-10 Disadvantages to Capitalism
http://listverse.com/2012/01/16/top-10-disadvantages-to-capitalism/
They forgot the biggest problem: it requires never ending “growth” in a finite world.
this is a joke right?
Yes and it’s on us.
Other than that, all the points are valid and factual.
Interestingly, a lot of those problems also apply to communism and fascism - war, propaganda, dictators.
“this is a joke right?”
Yeah! Hilarious, right!?
“We knew that everything the communists told us about communism was a lie,” one Russian joked, “but we didn’t realize that what they told us abut capitalism was true.”
Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back
Fri, 2012-04-27 08:54 — Mortgage News Ticker
A new development is catching home buyers off guard as the spring sales season gets under way: Bidding wars are back.
From California to Florida, many buyers are increasingly competing for the same house. Unlike the bidding wars that typified the go-go years and largely reflected surging sales, today’s are a result of supply shortages.
“It’s a little surprising because we thought bidding wars were done with,” said Andy Aley, who is looking to buy his first home in Seattle’s Beacon Hill neighborhood. The 31-year-old attorney was outbid this year when he offered up to $23,000 above the $357,000 listing price and agreed to waive inspections and other closing conditions. …
Anyone that would agree to waive an initial inspection needs their empty head examined. He’s an Attorney. Oy Vey!
More cherrypicked lyin’ realtor junk characterized as the trend.
When will The Housing Crime Syndicate stop lying to and ripping off the public?
The only thing in the entire article worth reading is Zelman’s comments. Being someone who based an early bearish view on hard data and was counter to the real estate masses, her opinion is worth considering.
What do you think of this username?
So, you think that Ivy Zelman is a liar?
Is there anyone NOT on this board who was a bear prior to the bubble popping who you think has credibility? One person?
How about Karl Case (of the Case Shiller Index)?
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2012/04/23/real-estate-market-getting-more-competitive/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/us-housing-market-may-see-little-boomlets/2012/04/26/gIQAfkUdjT_video.html
How about John Paulson (who is quite bullish)?
None of these are lies…they are opinions from people who were on our side during the bubble.
I wish someone would try to counter the data I’m presenting, rather than try to diminish the data by calling me a liar. If the data I’m gathering and presenting from LPS, the Census, Foreclosure Radar, the BLS, etc. is flawed, please tell me.
Give me some healthy debate. I’m a data analysis geek, and when my data is countered by name calling, I start to feel more and more that I’m right. If I’m wrong, you should be able to present lots of data showing me that I’m wrong. Where is it?
‘If the data I’m gathering and presenting…is flawed, please tell me.’
It’s flawed because the entire foreclosure system is being manipulated in dozens of ways on every level. You can’t pick up a newspaper without reading of some way the process is being bent toward lower actual foreclosures. IMO no one can know what the situation is or where we are.
Here’s one easy measure of when we’ll be significantly close to recovery; the govt isn’t backing 90%+ of the loans.
And I’ll add a bit of ‘analysis’ you won’t hear from these people; many, maybe millions of the houses sold in the past 3 or 4 years will end up in foreclosure, because prices are still too damn high.
“How about Karl Case (of the Case Shiller Index)?”
I have two theories:
1) He is irrationally exuberant.
2) The REIC pays him to make bullish statements.
“If I’m wrong, you should be able to present lots of data showing me that I’m wrong. Where is it?”
They call it ’shadow inventory’ for a reason.
@CIBT-
If you listen to the video, he’s actually quite measured in what he says.
I’m measuring shadow inventory by using non-current loans as a proxy, but also looking at reported REO trends to capture that missing piece of the puzzle. Any measure that doesn’t use data is just a guess. Can you think of a better way to measure shadow inventory?
People who are paying their mortgage, but waiting to sell because they want a higher price? That’s just normal inventory in my view.
@Ben-
What measure do you think is most appropriate in determining whether prices are too high? The measures that I see (price to income, price to rent) don’t indicate crazy high prices in MOST markets.
“Here’s one easy measure of when we’ll be significantly close to recovery”
when the case-shiller index completes its conversion to the mean…we will be in recovery then.
go to charles hugh smith’s website…find his essay from a day or two ago. he has the chart there.
“The measures that I see (price to income, price to rent) don’t indicate crazy high prices in MOST markets.”
Knock it off.
@michael-
I personally think we’ll die waiting if we expect national housing prices to get back to the nominal values of 1995, which is what CHS is suggesting.
Comparing the housing bubble to that of the Nasdaq is silly. Was there a mania that drove prices for both far above their logical levels? Yes. That’s where the comparison ends. Housing is a consumable product that has to be built with energy, materials, labor, etc. As the cost of those components go up, the cost of housing goes up. The Nasdaq deals with different company components, PE ratios, expectations of future earnings, etc. Way different.
Equally silly IMHO would be adjusting housing values based on gold appreciation (which I’ve also seen for ultra-bulls trying to show how much we’ve overshot the bottom).
If you take the bottom of the trough from the 90’s home prices, and adjust for inflation (a much more realistic approach), it would put the bottom at about 119 (that’s the index of 73 in 1992 of Shiller US National Index levels inflated per BLS). That puts the further correction at about 5% from where we are at 125 (the US National Index at the end of Q4 2011).
I think the way to measure value would be to get (eg)Statistics Canada data that is co-related with Cananda Revenue Agency by a variety of ways, but in this instance I would use postal codes.
From this you can get a very localized mean, median, and I think mode income average, and population density.
From Teela (”Canada), if you could get it, I would sort the housing sales by postal codes. I agree that it would be better data if it were a “mean” average because inputs can be refined so narrowly.
I also think the Canada Post have vacancy data which would be by postal code.
The whole thing would require access payment, but it could be done electronically - if you had the time.
Now about realtors - I have been, how should I say this, “not been given straight answers” and in a particular instance it cost me money. Guess who I relate to on this board ?
Shadow inventory - from this board I have learned that we have it in Canada too - ie foreigners buying up several and leaving them vacant pending a sale.
I am sure many here will remember Ben sending info out on the shadow and the cover up reply he got. Wish someone would have been listening to him who had some authority - maybe your housing mess would be over with by now. That is 30% of your economy - not working.
Well, there’s this data point to suggest we’re not near a bottom yet:
“The F.H.A.’s market share has risen sharply in recent years as subprime lenders and others left the business during the housing crisis, or were forced out. F.H.A.-insured mortgages represented almost a third of all mortgages in 2011, and as many as 47 percent in the second quarter of 2010, according to HUD data.
From a recent low of 1.8 percent in 2006, F.H.A.’s loan volume grew to a high of 20.4 percent of all mortgage originations in 2009, and last year it insured 15.2 percent based on dollar volume, according to data from Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry publication. In the last three years, F.H.A.’s volume was about four times its levels of 2005 and 2006.
Loans insured by the F.H.A. require only a 3.5 percent down payment for borrowers with a credit score above 580; those with a score of 500 to 580 need at least 10 percent down. Some lenders require higher scores. For instance, Somerset Hills Bank in Madison, N.J., looks for a score of at least 640 for an F.H.A loan, according to Jody Tobia, a senior vice president.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/realestate/mortgages-changes-in-federal-housing-administration-fees.html
@Patrick-
We were once in legal scuffle with a broker who denied lying to us by saying they were “brokering” (ie. not telling the truth).
Trust me…after multiple days of depositions, multiple weeks of trial, and massive (you don’t wanna know) legal bills, I cringe when I hear of brokers not being truthful.
I think the Canadian data (or something like it) you are talking about is generally available in the US from census data and other departments.
Rental,
Nominal prices in my market are BELOW 1995 levels– and dropping. The fact that properties are listed at far greater prices doesn’t negate the fact that none of them are selling there. There is a two-tier system here; the real estate lady price, and then the real one. (Where actual person-to-person private transactions take place.)
That said, I, for one, genuinely appreciate you posting what you’re seeing in YOUR markets. Countering your observations keeps all our contrarian chops keen.
Thanks for your tenacity.
More cherrypicked lyin’ realtor junk characterized as the trend.
It may not be the national trend, but I can tell you first-hand that it IS happening here in San Francisco. Barf.
I was in Silly Valley a few weeks ago. All the young pups I met who worked at the Santa Clara site yammered incessantly about buying property. This included the H1-B’s. The bubble is alive and well in Silcon Valley.
sfrenter
Here in so ca as well. I know of a multiple bidding war on a home we rescinded on due to traffic noise. This is post our rescinding our offer. Thank God. We want a quiet yard, and to be able to open our windows with ceiling fans going.
I am also noticing a trend where non-pre-approved short sales are listing low, awaiting a bidding war to reach a market value the bank will approve.
Barf is right, sfrenter.
Awaiting-
Are you seeing that action close to the coast (or LA County)? Or Western Riverside/San Bernardino county?
We’ve heard of some crazy high prices for apartment land in San Diego county, indicating some bullishness nearer the cost for residential, but we haven’t yet heard of bullishness farther inland.
“Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back”
This poor little chaser could use a bidding war. Added to Site
October 26, 2009 and if memory serves it was on the market before 09 at over $300k and was relisted.
10360 Se Jupiter Narrows Dr Hobe Sound, FL 33455
$189,900 Price Reduced
Active
Beds:3 Bed
Baths:2 Bath
House Size:1,908 Sq Ft
Year Built:1988
MLS ID: R3061196
“Call Pamela at (561) 373-5969”
“Judge: Gov. Rick Scott’s order to drug test state workers is unconstitutional”
http://www.tampabay.com/news/courts/article1227033.ece
Comments:
rickscottisafascist37 minutes ago
For those keeping track, this is now the 8TH TIME that the Republican’s fascist agenda has been struck down by the courts in just 15 months. I guess that they didn’t realize that America isn’t Germany, Italy or Spain, and that just because there is economic turmoil, the American people aren’t going to sidle up to the Republicans’ demented fascist vision to eliminate American democracy in exchange for a permanent feudal economy with the American people becoming nothing but serfs for a handful of sociopathic oligarchs.
“demented fascist vision to eliminate American democracy in exchange for a permanent feudal economy with the American people becoming nothing but serfs for a handful of sociopathic oligarchs”
In a nutshell, the platform of the Paul Ryan presidential candidacy
The industrial workplace in Florida has had drug-free policies for twenty years or more. Our company (engineering & union construction) has a mandatory entry drug test, a random testing program, and a mandatory drug test within 2 hours following any accident or incident.
From the article:
“U.S. District Judge Ursula Ungaro declared that Scott’s executive order to conduct random drug tests of 85,000 state employees amounted to an “unreasonable” search under the Fourth Amendment of the Constitution. Her decision was based on U.S. Supreme Court precedents that have cited the Fourth Amendment ban on unreasonable searches, concluding that governments cannot require job applicants to take drug tests absent a “special need,” such as safety.
Ungaro found that Scott’s order was so broadly worded that it failed to meet any drug-testing searches deemed “reasonable” by the U.S. Supreme Court because of “surpassing safety interests,” such as mandatory urine tests of railroad workers.”
…
“The judge found that Scott’s policy was comparable to a Georgia drug-testing law struck down by the Supreme Court in 1997. The Georgia statute required candidates seeking election to various offices to verify that they had tested negatively for illegal drug use.
“According to the (Supreme) Court, Georgia had failed to present any evidence of a ‘concrete danger’ that would demonstrate that the hazards the state sought to avoid were ‘real and not simply hypothetical,’ ” Ungaro wrote, citing the so-called Chandler case.
“In particular, the state had asserted ‘no evidence of a drug problem among the state’s elected officials,’ nor did the covered individuals ‘typically … perform high-risk, safety-sensitive tasks.’ ”
So I would guess that industrial workplaces have a safety interest and can justify it.
I recently saw a great sticker that basically said,
“Why shouldn’t you have to take a drug test to get your welfare check? After all, I had to take one to earn the money that paid for it!”
Disclaimer. My position on testing is this. If you have a job where people rely on your performance (pilot, bus driver, etc) then I am for drug testing. For everyone else, right after every politician takes theirs.
Irondequoit’s Medley Centre remains empty and eerie
“Nearly three years ago, a well-known developer promised the community a $260 million transformation of the moribund Medley Centre mall.”
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120427/NEWS01/304270037/Medley-Centre-Scott-Congel?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Home
Congel!!!!
(Think Jerry Seinfeld’s “Newman!”)
Rental rates are cratering
“The largest year-over-year percent declines in rental prices were observed in Denver (-8.8%), Chicago (-4.8%) and Los Angeles (-2.6%). Atlanta was the only market that saw a significant rise in rental prices, increasing 6.3% from $737 to $783 between Q1 2011 and Q1 2012.”
http://newsroom.transunion.com/MediaLibraries/TransUnion/Documents/graphics/1Q12/Q1-2012_SolutionsReport.pdf
So let me ask…… why are Realtors here lying to blog readers and the public about housing prices and rental rates?
Because Amy Hoak is their fluffer?
http://urbandictionary.com/#define?term=fluffer
Well Lying Realtors?
My birth certificate indicates I was born in Cocoa Beach.
Fla. motel resorts to nudity to survive
By Susanne Cervenka, Florida Today
Updated 44m ago
COCOA BEACH, Fla. – Dozens of empty lounge chairs dotted the kidney bean-shaped pool in the courtyard of Fawlty Towers Motel on Thursday, a problem that owner Paul Hodge said has only gotten worse as time passes.
But his solution to get bottoms — albeit bare ones — in his chairs and hotel rooms, has some locals raising their eyebrows.
Starting Tuesday, Fawlty Towers turns into a nudist resort.
“It’s just a niche in the market. There’s no competition in 100 miles,” Hodge said.
Hodge said the switch to a clothing-optional resort is a last-ditch effort to save his business. Snowbirds flock to rent condos where they avoid the bed taxes hotel guests have to pay, and his 32-room motel struggles to compete with larger chains that he said were “building hotels like it was going out of fashion.”
“It’s sort of a make-or-break situation. We can’t pay ourselves in winter. We had to scrap health insurance,” he said. “Every year it gets a little bit worse.”
Hodge started researching the idea about two or three years ago, but thought his ex-wife, with whom he co-owns the motel, wouldn’t go for it.
But with business struggling, Hodge said she jumped at the idea when a colleague mentioned it to her.
“I wish I had told her ages ago,” he said.
Only about 10 rooms are booked for the opening day, but the weekends are filling up quickly, Hodge said. Guests without rooms can buy a day pass that gives them access to the pool and tiki bar at $25 per person, an option that Hodge said might turn out to be more lucrative than overnight stays.
Hodge said he has been flush with potential customers, many from Cocoa Beach, stopping by the motel ever since two nudist magazines wrote features about his transition.
“I didn’t think there would be so many nudists right here,” he said. “It looks like we’ll do well.”
…
My birth certificate indicates I was born in Cocoa Beach.
Isn’t that where Major Nelson and his sexy genie lived?
Isn’t that where Major Nelson and his sexy genie lived?
Yes master
Sounds like an enterprising idea, I hope it works out for them.
Tipsy nekkid elders in a motel pool. Sign me up!
Maybe in a few years I’ll buy something like this until I decide if I am really going to buy. Lol.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9983-56th-Ave-N-Saint-Petersburg-FL-33708/47275748_zpid/
Life is what happens when we’re making plans
Global investors this month pulled the most money from stock funds in any April in at least 17 years amid escalating concerns that Europe’s economy is faltering.
Equity funds had net redemptions of $18.6 billion through April 25, according to data from EPFR Global, a research firm based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The April withdrawals were the largest since at least 1996, the first year for which comparable data is available
Bloomberg
Hmmm
And for the local news…….
“Meth lab explodes in man’s pants, Oklahoma police say…..”
http://tinyurl.com/7qnukm6
Shake ‘n bake, baby!
http://www.npr.org/2012/02/07/146531937/shake-and-bake-meth-causes-uptick-in-burn-victims
They are all jacked up on Mountain Dew.
Government cutbacks slice into economy’s growth
Sacramento Bee - 17 minutes ago
By KEVIN G. HALL WASHINGTON — The US economy expanded at a sluggish 2.2 percent annual rate from January through March, the government said Friday in a confounding report that spotlighted the continuing challenge of spurring strong growth.
…
…and that’s with trillions of dollars being pumped into it on top of a ZIRP.
party on wayne!
Well, looks like I’m kind of a statistic now! The property owners of the commercial building that I rent space in lost their building today. Another developer bought their loan discounted as it they were behind on it. Then they got cases brought against them by the FBI for fraud. Part of it involves a local bank that failed (Bank of the Commonwealth), and 49 million in loans. Historic tax credit fraud, and them buying bad assets from the bank in return for loans (to buy the assets?) Pretty wild stuff. One of the owners is in jail, other is out but agreed to testify against the other.
Regulators close 4 banks in 3 states
The Associated Press
Posted: 6:42 p.m. Friday, April 27, 2012
WASHINGTON — Federal regulators have closed two banks in Maryland and one in Minnesota and South Carolina, bringing to 21 the number of U.S. banks that have failed so far this year.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Friday that it shuttered Bank of Eastern Shore, in Cambridge, Md., as well as HarVest Bank of Maryland, in Gaithersburg.
Regulators also closed Inter Savings Bank in Maple Grove, Minn., and Plantation Federal Bank in Pawleys Island, S.C.
Combined, the closed banks had $1.3 billion in assets and $1.21 billion in deposits as of Dec. 31.
Regulators lined up lenders to take over the assets and deposits of all of the banks except Bank of the Eastern Shore.
The FDIC estimates that the banks’ failure will cost the insurance fund $252.5 million, combined.
This Bullsh#t is just insane! The one Deadbeat who raised her head to bit@h about her Hardest Hit money that was going to end in the paper was a serial refinancing victim who had been collecting rent on 2 condos for years when she was not paying the mortgage. They only pulled her BS when I posted her refis and condos in the local comments section AND SHE PASSED ALL THE CHECKS AND BALANCES TO GET THE HARDEST HIT MONEY!
“Florida’s changes include increasing the number of months homeowners can have their mortgages paid from six months with a $12,000 cap on payments to 12 months with a cap of $24,000.”
Florida homeowners to get mortgage paid for year under new Hardest Hit Fund rules
by Kim Miller
Changes to Florida’s more than $1 billion Hardest Hit Fund announced today will increase the amount of time homeowners can get mortgage assistance and eliminate roadblocks that have stymied program eligibility.
The Florida Housing Finance Corporation board approved the new rules in a meeting this morning in Jacksonville, but they must still get approval from the federal government.
Nationwide, $7.6 billion has been doled out to states with the most devastated housing markets through the Hardest Hit Fund, which was announced in February 2010. But a report released earlier this month said the programs, which are developed and administered by individual states, have been slow to start up and have helped too few homeowners.
Florida’s changes include increasing the number of months homeowners can have their mortgages paid from six months with a $12,000 cap on payments to 12 months with a cap of $24,000.
For homeowners who need to bring their mortgage payments current, the cap on payments was lifted from $6,000 to $18,000.
Also, the changes eliminate the requirement that homeowners be less than 180-days late on their mortgage payments. The new program says only that the homeowner cannot be in foreclosure to be eligible.
“We’re very excited to announce these changes just approved by our board this morning,” said David Westcott, director of homeownership programs and chief administrator for the Florida Hardest Hit Fund at the Housing Finance Corporation. “These changes are really good news and beneficial to a lot of hardest hit fund applicants and participants.”
The report earlier this month from the inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program said as of the end of December, the Hardest Hit program has assisted just 30,640 people nationwide and spent only 3 percent of the available funds.
By the end of last year, 3,302 Florida homeowners had been helped with Hardest Hit money, while the state allocated $63.3 million as of February, according to the federal report.
But Cecka Green, communications director for the Florida Housing Finance Corp., said as of April 1, nearly $90 million had been reserved to assist 4,955 homeowners statewide.
About 350 Palm Beach County homeowners have received Hardest Hit money.
This entry was posted on Friday, April 27th, 2012 at 10:39 am and is filed under Condos, Florida economy, Foreclosures, Housing affordability, Real estate bust. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
8 Responses to “Florida homeowners to get mortgage paid for year under new Hardest Hit Fund rules”
1
Get in the Game Says:
April 27th, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Ahhh – the luxury to waste even more money.
Government slays me – throwing money around to grab votes.
And the nonsense continues…
2
lvent Says:
April 27th, 2012 at 12:46 pm
What are they doing? They would be better off rescinding. Or is their fear the hyper-inflated property taxes wont get paid because they ruined the economy? They created a disaster and we are all being bankrupted because of it. We need at least a 2 year property tax holiday to make up some of our losses and a nationwide loan rescission.
3
Craig Fialkowski Says:
April 27th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
As a local Realtor, I find this incredibly disturbing that the government continues to bail out people who will likely end up loosing the home to Foreclosure in the end. This only delays the inevitable and allows people to live rent free with MY tax dollars. I know for a fact several people who can easily afford to pay their mortgage but don’t. So they get the benefit of $2,000 month housing subsidy? Nobody is paying my mortgage but me. If I don’t pay, I’ll get foreclosed on. That’s the way it works! We have raised a society of give it to me for FREE. Also remember, the money goes to the BANKS!!! Backdoor bailout. I can sympathize that people have hardships, but like any responsible human, you need to adjust your lifestyle and reduce expenses. That generally means finding a more affordable place to reside, sell the BMW and buy a KIA, go grocery shopping instead of Ruths Chris. You can’t feed off the government bottle for the rest of your life.
4
Voice of Reason Says:
April 27th, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Craig et al, I couldn’t agree more. I just had my idiot neighbor crying the blues to me about being behind in his mortgage, (among other financial problems), and I noted that he was telling me this upon his return from the Panthers Playoff game with his family. If hockey tickets are more important than paying your mortgage, so be it; but don’t come crying to me and expecting any sympathy and certainly don’t expect a handout! To quote Jerry Seinfeld, “People…they’re the worst!”
5
Tom Says:
April 27th, 2012 at 1:55 pm
What is going on ? What is the incentive to continue to pay your bills ?
6
David Says:
April 27th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
This is just one more way for the government to funnel money directly to the banks. They are simply using the excuse of a homeowner overburdened with an inflated mortgage to do it.
7
Truth Says:
April 27th, 2012 at 3:16 pm
I want my 6 months paid too…
Oh wait, I forgot stupid no longer hurts, and we all have uncle nanny now.
I pay my bills on time, where is my free ride.
8
Florida homeowners to get mortgage paid for year under new Hardest Hit Fund rules Says:
April 27th, 2012 at 6:01 pm
If I wasn`t already on a watch list, this should take care of that.
by Kim Miller
posted on Friday, April 27th, 2012 at 10:39 am
9 Responses to “Florida homeowners to get mortgage paid for year under new Hardest Hit Fund rules”
9
jeff saturday Says:
April 27th, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Is there any chance that those in charge of dolling out the government cheese might check to see if they were serial refinancers that are also collecting rent on a couple of condos while not paying those mortgages either like the last star victim that the PB Post had in the paper for losing her Hardest Hit money? Jebus it took about 2 minutes for the people who comment here to look up her records you would think the people who are paid to hand out $1 billion Hardest Hit Fund cheese should be able to do the same thing. But I forgot they are working for the government so I guess that is waaaaaay too much to ask.
High-profile Boynton condo in foreclosure suit
By Alexandra Clough Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Posted: 12:52 p.m. Friday, April 27, 2012
BOYNTON BEACH — The high-profile Promenade condominium in downtown Boynton Beach was sued for foreclosure Friday in Palm Beach County Circuit Court, according to a statement by the developer.
Boynton Waterways Investment Associates, the Promenade’s developer, said the “friendly” foreclosure was on the unsold units in the downtown condominium, a twin-tower, 14-story project. Only about a quarter of the condo’s 318 units have been sold since sales began in May 2010. Units start at about $160,000. The property is on Federal Highway and Boynton Beach Boulevard.
The statement did not identify the entity filing the foreclosure, but according to Gary Nagle, an attorney representing buyers suing the Promenade, the plaintiff is Wells Fargo Bank, which was disclosed during a court hearing this week.
The Promenade, which was launched during the real estate boom and completed in the real estate bust, has struggled to sell units . As a result, the Promenade has been dogged by legal and financial issues.
In recent weeks, Wells Fargo has interceded in cases between the developer and pre-construction buyers trying to get out of their contracts. The Promenade’s original lender, Anglo Irish Bank, sold its portfolio of bad loans, including the Promenade’s $117 million construction loan, to Lone Star, a Texas private equity fund. But according to documents filed with the Palm Beach County Clerk and Comptroller’s Office on Jan. 24, Lone Star assigned the Promenade mortgage to Wells Fargo.
The developer said the foreclosure is being done in cooperation with the lender as part of a restructuring that will allow sales of units in the project to continue.
A statement added that the foreclosure will have no impact on existing owner units other than those owned by the developer. In addition, the Promenade will operate through the restructuring, with no interruption of service or residents’ amenities. As soon as the restructuring is complete, closings and sales are expected to be restarted, the developer’s statement said.
About $2 million worth of deposits remain in limbo, as pre-construction Promenade buyers have sought and obtained judgments to recover their deposits after a legal ruling involving the way the developer mingled escrow funds.
It’s not clear what will happen to those judgments, which are being appealed by the developer. The judgments halted sales at the Promenade because title companies became wary of writing title insurance.
Nagle said he has questions about the restructuring.
“I’m interested to know what the deal is between the Promenade developer and the foreclosing party, and whether it is a transfer of interests to rid the property of my clients’ judgments,” he said.
Everything in my area is “Active With Contract.”
I bet 75% of these are BS.
That’s what I WAS seeing in Phoenix Metro over the past few months. Recently I have seen a few used houses around me sitting with no offers, they are marginal units with a few issues and prices that are a bit high. Looks like that spring bidding war frenzy may be hitting a quick table top. Oh, and I see more rentals coming on the market which should put the kibosh on the rising rent BS.
I estimate 85% of Wells Fargo REO says in contract……. and all of that 85% has been for over 2 years.
This entire notion of a housing recovery is a hoax my friends. Sales are still at 15 year lows, inventory is still massive and yes my friends…. realtors are still the lying pieces of $hit we all know them to be.