You Can Buy Almost Anything, And You Will Not Lose
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “As India’s real estate industry is still in a recovering state, industry experts think it is the right time for consumers to go for their dream homes before the prices shoot up. Property expert Sai Chand Talluri says that 2.5K units arrive in Hyderabad market every year and real estate companies are managing to sell half of them and the rest are carried forward to next year. ‘Even though the overall absorption rate is slow real estate market is active for completed projects as there is limited supply, said Rajalakshmi Raghavan, GM-Marketing Vasathi Housing. She conforms that not only first home buyers, but also second home buyers are also adding to the market. ‘Stock markets are unstable and gold prices are rising day by day, so people keep an eye on real estate since this the opportunity which gives more returns’ said Sai Chand Talluri.”
“For Shen Dongjun, the 22-hectare chateau in Bordeaux seemed a priceless investment and a natural addition to his new wine business, rather than being just an expensive holiday home. Shen is part of a new wave of Chinese investors who are snapping up wine estates across the world. ‘Wine is not part of the traditional drinking culture in China, and as such many buyers, who haven’t been in the wine industry, may find it hard to operate the wineries,’ says Duan Changqing, director of the grape and wine research center at the China Agricultural University. ‘But it is fine if they are just buying the properties for fun.’”
“The bankruptcy of Hangzhou Glory Real Estate, a comparatively small homebuilder focused on the high-end residential market in Hangzhou, raised concerns over the health of China’s property sector. ‘Developers’ financial position has rung an alarm in the industry,’ says Alan Chiang, head of residential properties, Greater China in his April property report. ‘For the top 30 publicly-listed developers in China, 22 have recorded a negative cash flow as at the fourth quarter of 2011. In addition, 13 developers’ debt ratio has gone up to or over 70 percent. Unsold inventory turnover rate skyrocketed to an average of 1,667 days,’ he adds.”
“Since gaining popularity as a tourist destination, China’s Hainan island has seen a boom in property development projects. And developers continue to be optimistic of the property market despite falling prices and the high number of vacant units. Currently, about 60 to 80 per cent of these units are vacant. Tiley Real Estate marketing director Ji Cheng, said: ‘In Hainan, seaside property is increasingly scarce. In Hainan, our customers are generally second, third or even fourth time and above buyers.’”
“Experts don’t believe there will be repeat of the 1990s property bubble, even though up to 80 per cent of units remain vacant. CEIBS Lujiazui International Finance Research Centre deputy director Gary Liu said: ‘There is real estate bubble all over China so if you compare Hainan to other parts of China, the bubble would not be so serious.’”
“Russian citizens bought real estate worth $245 million in Australia last year, Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board said. Russians ranked sixteenth in a list of buyers of Australian property last year, the board said in its report. The top three buyer nations are U.K. citizens in first place, spending $4.6 billion, the Chinese in second with $4.09 billion and U.S. citizens third with property purchases worth $3.4 billion.”
“Non-residents of Australia purchased property worth of total $41.513 billion last year, double the figure for 2010.”
“While renters are queuing up and offering bribes to secure a home, there are as many as 48,000 dwellings unoccupied across the state, according to analyst BIS Shrapnel. Some properties were reserved as holiday homes or undergoing renovations, however many owners were living overseas or sitting on the property while they waited for prices to rise following a record-long recession, BIS Shrapnel managing director Robert Mellor said. While property prices in Perth and across WA have fallen on average 8 per cent since March, 2010, REIWA says the downturn is levelling out.”
“‘There was huge growth in holiday homes in the late 90s to the middle of the [first decade of the] 2000s,’ Mr Mellor said. ‘Low interest rates really encouraged that and baby boomers [gained] higher wealth status and decided to buy a holiday home.’”
“Tamara Treleaven was 16 and working part-time in a music store when she started saving for a house deposit. Now 28, she owns three investment properties worth $830,000, two of them jointly with her husband. She aims to be a property millionaire by the age of 30 and financially independent by 40, even though she works part-time at home helping administer her husband’s gym and as a paid mentor for young investors. ‘The whole idea is we’ve got time in the market, so we’re not planning on selling. The little ups and downs, the property cycles, don’t concern us because we have the long-term view,’ she said.”
“Financial adviser Daniel Brammall said he liked their approach in deciding to build wealth, but they were in danger of having no plan B if either became sick or jobless, if the property market plummeted or if negative gearing was banned. ‘Their plan A appears to be like Monopoly - the winner owns the most property. [But] very few lives run uninterrupted without a hiccup.”’
“Greg Hoy, reporter: Negative growth in Australian home values in recent years has seen hordes of Australians drawn to the American Dream - riding the strong Australian dollar into the US housing market, which in large areas has remained depressed since a huge housing bubble and glut of subprime properties helped trigger to global financial crisis. Jeremy Laws, investor: You can buy almost anything in a larger city, and you will not lose, and you will kill the returns you will get in Australia.”
“Hoy: Queensland policeman Alan Wilkie pinned his and wife Jillian’s retirement hopes, and $300,000, on assurances given by Jason Paris of US Properties. The Wilkies bought an LLC title to a foreclosed house and townhouse in Las Vegas, which never delivered the rental returns assured by Jason Paris, and can’t be resold for anything near the price paid. Wilkie: It looks like the retirement plans are shot to pieces. I will probably have to work until I’m 100.”
“Figures from the National Association of Realtors show that China has become the No 2 international investor in US properties in terms of buyers at 9 percent, after Canada’s 23 percent. International buyers prefer properties in metropolises such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Miami, brokers say. For instance, Brazilians tend to congregate in South Florida, while Chinese customers seek properties in the Bay Area.”
“New York City’s priciest borough is another favorite for Chinese buyers, says Kathy Tsao, chairwoman of the Asian Real Estate Association of America. ‘Many of my customers are purchasing properties because their children will be attending school in the city. Most of them are attending Ivy League schools on the East Coast. So a property in Manhattan is an ideal situation for them.’”
“Chinese buyers tend to prefer paying cash rather than taking out mortgages, says Hiroko Akutsu Lee, a New York broker. She once saw a Chinese customer buy a house on Long Island with $1.2 million in cash. ‘Twenty years ago, Japanese came to buy properties. But after the burst of the real estate bubble in Japan, their enthusiasm in properties subsided,’ Lee says.”
“The maximum debt service ratio that Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation will insure is 44 per cent of gross monthly income. As long as you’re shopping for a home, not buying a house as a speculative investment, it’s always a good time to buy, said mortgage broker Chris Pughe. ‘Personally, I believe that the only way to create a net worth for yourself is to buy property,’ Pughe said. ‘If you’re thinking about it, you should certainly get off the couch and do it. As long as you love the place you’re in, even if the market goes down, as long as you can pay the monthly payments, you can stay there until the market comes back.’”
“Canada has been held up as a ‘miracle’ economy that escaped the worst of the GFC. But any Kiwi looking at its present performance will be reminded of NZ a few years ago when we had a mirage of booming housing and consumption. Canadian real estate has surged in sympathy with other markets and a regime of low interest rates. But a central driver is Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.”
“It is a huge, crown corporation fully backed by the Government. Until 1999 it had quite tough requirements, including a 10% deposit. Since then it has insured mortgages without limit, without deposits, with amortization of 40 years and the possibility of paying interest only for the first ten years. In 2011 homes became ATM’s, and the average homeowner had only 34% equity in their home, a fall from 55% only 4 years ago. Canadians have pulled $220 bln out of their homes in revolving home equity lines of credit (HELOCs): on a per capita basis, this is about three times as much as the Americans borrowed at the peak of their boom.”
“Vancouver is being driven partly by massive buying from Chinese investors and residents. My guess is that Chinese buying is very significant on the margin, especially for expensive properties in western suburbs where the median price is C$2 million. Vancouver is the world’s second most unaffordable city (after Hong Kong). It’s median price in 2010 was C$602,000 which is 9.5 times the median household income of C$63,100.”
“A recent study by the Bank of Montreal found that 4 out of 10 borrowers stated they could not repay their loan if interest rates rose slightly. Canadian investment in residential investment is now just over 7% of GDP: every time in history when this level is reached there is a crash within 2-3 years.”
“After six years in a condo, Madison resident Jessica Ramirez Torres is ready for a bigger home, but the market isn’t cooperating. She tried to sell the renovated, 900-square-foot unit for more than eight months, at less than $100,000. Almost nobody showed any interest, and the one offer she did get was ‘way below’ what she was asking, she said. So Torres, 32, like a number of hard-pressed but determined home sellers tired of being stymied by the housing slump — at least in terms of desired price — pivoted over to Plan B and decided to become a temporary landlord.”
“For the next year or two, she will take advantage of a hot rental market to pay the mortgage, while moving back home to save more money for a down payment on the house she wants to buy with her boyfriend. She thinks it’s likely the housing market will be better then, and she’ll be able to sell her condo without taking a big financial hit. Even so, she said, the decision wasn’t easy to make. ‘We didn’t want to be landlords at all,’ she said.”
“By the time a foreclosed home goes on sale, it’s near the end of the process. But the Sarasota Association of Realtors reports that only 15% of March sales came from either foreclosures or short sales. So the increase in foreclosures that RealtyTrac reports – 36% more for March this year than March 2011 – seems to point to homes going into foreclosure for the first time. ‘From then on you have at least a year or more – sometimes up to six years before the properties can actually become available for sale,’ says real estate attorney Anne Weintraub.”
“So why are homes just now going into foreclosure, more than four years after the housing market began to crash? One reason: the robo-signing scandal slowed foreclosures way down, but did not stop them. ‘A pregnant pause, but unfortunately the baby’s coming,’ Weintraub says. ‘We are going to have a lot on the market, I’m sure.’”
“Chinese buyers tend to prefer paying cash rather than taking out mortgages, says Hiroko Akutsu Lee, a New York broker. She once saw a Chinese customer buy a house on Long Island with $1.2 million in cash. ‘Twenty years ago, Japanese came to buy properties. But after the burst of the real estate bubble in Japan, their enthusiasm in properties subsided,’ Lee says.”
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Isn’t it interesting that this Lying Realtor fails to mention that housing prices cratering in the northeast 20 years ago……… AFTER Japan cratered.
This is not going to end well…. at all.
“…their enthusiasm in properties subsided…”
Was that meant as an understated attempt at saying ‘housing prices cratered’?
Seems that way.
That’s why I always suggest, “Why buy a house now? Buy later, after prices crater for 65% less.”
Ever been to a 65% off sale at Target or Macy’s? It’s 65% off for a reason.
Your decision is yours and yours alone. You own it. All of it.
Something I learned in my economics class: mark-downs are a result of a surplus due to a) an increase in supply, b) a decrease in demand, c) both a and b. I think the projected “cratering” will be a result of c). The natural response by consumers to an expectation of a decrease in prices in the future is a decrease in demand now. This is adding more downward pressure to the demand-side. Once the banks release the shadow inventory, this will add even more supply side pressure. From a purely economical standpoint, there ought to be a whole lot of cratering going on!
From a purely economical standpoint, there ought to be a whole lot of cratering going on!
Yeah, but we are not dealing with pure economics. Everybody is in collusion to keep housing prices high….except us renters.
“Ever been to a 65% off sale at Target or Macy’s? It’s 65% off for a reason.”
I’m going to support Oxide’s statement and state an observation: If it really is a true value of a deal, in an area of surgeons, developers, lawyers, judges, trust fund babies, presidential spawn (I know generational spawn of 2 former US Presidents and distant relatives of 3 other former Presidents.) and other assorted investor and connected types, I will most definitely be outbid.
“13 developers’ debt ratio has gone up to or over 70 percent. Unsold inventory turnover rate skyrocketed to an average of 1,667 days”
4.5 years of inventory and they are just now “raising concerns”? I wonder what it would take for a full-blown, Houston-we-have-a-problem here.
“You Can Buy Almost Anything, And You Will Not Lose”
This guy told me exactly that in 2005 if you take out the word “Almost”. So far it looks like he was correct, five years and still living rent free in his “can`t lose” house. I know people who live near him and although I have not talked to him in a few years I am sure he has changed his tune to “I was Robo signed!”
Are all the subsequent amounts HELOCs? And are you saying that after borrowing all that money he hasn’t made a payment in 5 years?
Just 1 HELOC Consideration: $78,800.00 10/10/2006
He got in late and the refi game ended there. The first 2 on 3/6/2006 for Consideration: $250,400.00 and Consideration: $62,000.00 were his loans to buy the place for $313,000. Not a lot of skin in the game huh, you throw in 5 years of free living and that`s a pretty good return on a $1k investment + whatever he put in for closing if it wsn`t scammed into the price of the house. Of course we are not counting his $78,800.00 HELOC cause if you throw that in he`s GD Warren Buffet.
But to answer your ? yes he hasn`t made a payment in 5 years. It was in 2008 that he told a friend of mine that he was just waiting for them to tell him to get out. So yes the banksters and the PTB suck for their part in this disaster, but that doesn`t mean I am ready to give these once cocky Deadbeats a free pass.
Who in their right (or even wrong) mind would have EVER paid $313,000 to live in La Mancha? Sure, it’s nicer than Palm Beach Colony and the Willows, but seriously?
Don Quixote?
Again, the background of Cervantes’ novel is Spain in social and economic decline. Use of Don Quixote imagery to sell real estate is either ironic or tragically accurate.
Wow. I just can’t think of anything else to say.
“More knave than fool.”
“Veriest varlet that ever chewed with a tooth.”
“You Can Buy Almost Anything, And You Will Not Lose”
You can even get stucco! (Boy, can you get stucco…)
“You can even get stucco! (Boy, can you get stucco…)”
Owner Name: PTAK SCOTT T
Parcel Control Number: 72-41-43-14-01-014-0110
Location Address: 258 LA MANCHA AVE
Structural Details
1. Exterior Wall 1 CB STUCCO
Subarea and Sq. Footage for Building 1
No. Code Description Sq. Footage
1. BAS BASE AREA 1657
2. FSP FINISHED SCREENED PORCH 320
3. FGR FINISHED GARAGE 462
4. FOP FINISHED OPEN PORCH 75
Total Square Footage : 2514
So just $188 per square foot under air. What a bargain!
“Experts don’t believe there will be repeat of the 1990s property bubble, even though up to 80 per cent of units remain vacant. ‘There is real estate bubble all over China so if you compare Hainan to other parts of China, the bubble would not be so serious.’”
haha. So if it is 100% vacancy rate in the rest of China, Hainan is not so bad. With experts like these, who needs dunces.
The part I like about this post is:
“There is a real estate bubble all over China so if you compare Hainan to other parts of China, the bubble would not be so serious.”
There is some really strange logic at work here.
At least they aren’t in denial about the ubiquity of their bubble, the way Alan Greenspan was.
True. But I wonder what’s worse: Greenspan saying we don’t have a bubble so no big deal or the Chinese saying, yes, we have a bubble, but no big deal.
“…industry experts think it is the right time for consumers to go for their dream homes before the prices shoot up.”
Is such a panic-stricken mentality a sign of a normal, stable, healthy real estate market, OR MORE A SIGN THAT INDIA IS AT THE CREST OF A MANIA?
Indian RE is basically insane.
When a totally sh1tty condo in a fairly remote town sells for more than a condo on the very beautiful Gold Coast of Chicago, you know you have a serious problem.
They are in total denial.
I stopped bringing up the subject with my friends because it’s quite clear it’s a mania, and I’d rather focus on the arts & culture, my photography and the food.
And on that subject, it now turns out that Philippines is having a full-blown RE mania.
Oh brother! Will this never end?
‘turns out that Philippines is having a full-blown RE mania’
That’s news to me. Thanks.
The irony is that the Philippines had a major RE crash in 1997, and the government passed a law to ensure bank underwriting standards in 2002.
I’m not sure of the mechanics yet. Whether it’s money financed from abroad or private lending but there’s definitely a full-stoked RE mania going on.
“Oh brother! Will this never end?”
Good gawd, you put my worst fears into words.
I have been assuming that although the tail winds of this bubble might quite literally outlive me, at least my kids will enjoy a future period when U.S. housing prices are more normally aligned with incomes and rents, allowing them to focus on more important matters besides trying to maintain stable household finances against the backdrop of a never-ending mania.
But now that I see convincing signs the bubble is spreading far and wide, and even coming back in the U.S., my doubts are growing.
‘But it is fine if they are just buying the properties for fun.’
I can’t wait for the MSM sob stories of new-aged Chinese vintners, turned real-estate crash victims.
I wonder too what corruption will be used to their advantage, like what is the Chinese version of robo-signing. It would be fun to have an ongoing list of Before and After the bust:
Tycoon: “Just buying for fun.”
Victim: “Chinese government made us buy things we couldn’t afford.” “Media made us do it.” “We was robbed.”
Or from the CA post this week:
‘The interest rates were so low, so we thought this is the time — now or never. We just closed our eyes and jumped…We just want the bank to give us a new contract…I’m not a failure or a loser. I’m a complete victim.’
Ben, that is arguably one of the best quotes to come out of the bubble ever. Isn’t quite as catchy as “Suzanne researched this”, but it shows there’s no end to the idiocy of this all.
Ha! I missed this one. And agree, this is one of the best.
I wonder too what corruption will be used to their advantage
All cash, no taxes, un-permitted work…
I can’t wait for the MSM sob stories of new-aged Chinese vintners, turned real-estate crash victims.
I personally can’t wait. The neighborhood we are looking to buy is getting bought up and flipped fast and furious by Chinese investors.
Went to see a fixer-upper last week, got there before it was open for an open house, and there were half a dozen (Chinese-speaking) folks already there with their tape measurers.
http://www.trulia.com/property/3082490703-262-Hamilton-St-San-Francisco-CA-94134
This house will be bought and relisted in 30-60 days with a $550K price tag.
This is going on all over Sacramento right now too. On the upside, these places will be renovated when they flood back onto the market in a few years time. Provided the section 8 renters don’t annhilate them first. I think I’m gonna get out of the market and sit this out.
‘In Hainan, seaside property is increasingly scarce. In Hainan, our customers are generally second, third or even fourth time and above buyers.’
That story sure rings a bell. Where have I heard about something similar happening over the past decade or so?
Hmm, let me think. Every town in every state in America.
After the photos a few years ago of a nearly-finished Chinese apartment building that fell over onto its side, like a domino, I’m amazed that anyone would buy in China. Maybe those photos were supressed by the Chinese government. Or perhaps we’re in the frightening phase where no one cares.
http://tinyurl.com/kpkdmz
“According to the official version, the reason of the building collapsing was … loose soil”
Who would have thought that you needed a firm foundation on which to build a 13-story building?
Next time you build a 13 story building, stomp the soil down fer cryin’ out loud.
I guess sometimes, real estate goes down … way down.
And a little to the side.
‘Personally, I believe that the only way to create a net worth for yourself is to buy property,’ Pughe said. ‘If you’re thinking about it, you should certainly get off the couch and do it. As long as you love the place you’re in, even if the market goes down, as long as you can pay the monthly payments, you can stay there until the market comes back.’
Apparently, buying property is a damn good way to destroy a net worth as well.
“As long as you love the place your’re in, even if the market goes down, as long as you can pay the monthly payments, you can stay ther until the market comes back.”
I agree with this sentiment, agree with the parts about “if you love the place your’re in”, and “as long as you can pay the monthly payments”.
If you can afford to buy a place you love then IMO you bought the place for the right reasons.
The part I don’t agree with is the part that says: “you can stay there until the market comes back”.
Loving the place and affording the payments are factors that are under one’s direct control, the behavior is the market is not.
Doesn’t say can afford, but can make the payments. How many times have we read of people draining their 401ks and then defaulting, waiting for markets to come back, or because they love-that-house.
And we also read of people walking away in a business decision. What’s love got to do with it, kinda thing.
And then there is this:
‘they were in danger of having no plan B if either became sick or jobless, if the property market plummeted or if negative gearing was banned. ‘Their plan A appears to be like Monopoly - the winner owns the most property. [But] very few lives run uninterrupted without a hiccup’
…and many of those who don’t have those “hiccups” tend to think everyone else is a slacker.
Many of those who do have “hiccups” got hungover from drinking too much of the alcohol-laced debt Kool-aide. But thanks to hair-of-the-dog hangover cures for debtaholics, help is on the way!
“they were in danger of having no plan B”
What happened to George Armstrong Custer when he had no “plan B” at the Battle of the Little Bighorn? He had a hiccup didn`t he.
The builders of the Titanic didn’t have a plan B either.
Like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Megabank, Inc, the Titanic was believed too big to fail.
Equity Investors are often told to never fall in love with a stock, but for RE buyers you are expected to fall in love with this assest class.
It is an assest(RE) and, like a stock, a business decision whether to hold or fold and nothing more.
‘Personally, I believe that the only way to create a net worth for yourself is to buy property,’ Pughe said.
Personally, I believe that the best way to make a small fortune in real estate is to start with a large one.
“Figures from the National Association of Realtors show that China has become the No 2 international investor in US properties in terms of buyers at 9 percent, after Canada’s 23 percent. International buyers prefer properties in metropolises such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Miami, brokers say. For instance, Brazilians tend to congregate in South Florida, while Chinese customers seek properties in the Bay Area.”
Who’d've thunk the many unsubstantiated conjectural statements about Chinese and Australian investors in U.S. properties would turn out to be true?
Whocouldaknowed?
Meant to say “Chinese and Canadian”…my brain some times acts funny before 6am and coffee.
The Canadian and Chinese investors are getting a lot of help from Uncle Sam, who is forcing the unwitting U.S. taxpayer to funnel billions of dollars in subsidies through the defunct GSEs out into the mortgage lending pipeline. Home prices go up in response to the subsidies, and the Canadian and Chinese all-cash investors capture the money flow as it leaves the U.S.A. I can’t wait to see what happens to U.S. home prices when these foreign flippers cash out en masse. If you want a sneak preview, then check out what happened to U.S. home prices in areas where Californians used to invest.
Can anyone besides me hear the giant sucking sound of U.S. Treasury funds leaving the country, and landing in the coffers of Canadian and Chinese real estate investors?
This will become a lot more apparent when the latest generation of all-cash investors cashes out, leaving the American households who used GSE financing to buy with low-downpayment loans at inflated prices holding the bag. And there is nothing like growing a “strong book of business” at a cost of hundreds of billions of U.S. tax dollars.
Fannie Mae Reports 4Q Loss, Asks for $4.6 Billion from Government
Posted: March 1, 2012
Fannie Mae has once again come up short in its quarterly earnings for the latter half of last year, and the mortgage giant is looking to ask the U.S. government to foot the bill.
Fannie Mae said on Wednesday that it recorded a $2.4 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2011, between October and December, with a reported revenue of about $4.5 billion. To make up for the loss, the mortgage financier says it will be asking the government for another $4.6 billion.
Taxpayers spent $150 billion to bail out mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008. Since then, Fannie Mae has received upwards of $116 billion from the Treasury Department, making it the most expensive bailout of a single company.
In a statement, Fannie officials blamed their worsening losses on lowered interest rates on refinanced mortgages and an increasing number of homeowners defaulting on their mortgages.
“While economic factors, such as falling home prices and high unemployment, produced strong headwinds for our business again in 2011, we continued to grow a very strong new book of business as we have since 2009,” said Michael J. Williams, Fannie Mae’s president and CEO.
During the year, Fannie Mae funded the market with more than $650 billion in liquidity and maintained its focus on strengthening Fannie Mae’s ability to support and improve the housing industry.”
…
This is insanity. A corrupt, criminally run, bankrupt crime syndicate like PhoneyMay is asking for $4.6 billion…. this is madness.
Not if you can get it. Why not? It seems that at every level of this corrupt government, money is flowing to favored groups, like banksters. Just tell them the world will end if they don’t get it. Congress, please pay attention. There will be a total collapse, martial law, riots, starvation, poverty and destitution.
GIVE US the MONEY.
there. that’s how it’s done. just ask hank paulsen.
Can anyone besides me hear the giant sucking sound of U.S. Treasury funds leaving the country, and landing in the coffers of Canadian and Chinese real estate investors?
Who gives a chit? Think of the commissions! -NAR
Home prices go up in response to the subsidies, and the Canadian and Chinese all-cash investors capture the money flow as it leaves the U.S.A.
I think that the foreign investors are more likely to lose their shirts.
It depends. As usual when a bubble collapses, those who exit the burning theater first will make out like bandits. Those who get stuck behind the panicked throng will get burned.
True, but absentee owners might not react in time. YMMV, I suppose.
Can foreign buyers really get mortgages? I thought the Canadians were using Canadian HELOCs to “snap up cheap houses” in the US. As for the Chinese, aren’t they supoosed to be paying cash?
If this is the case, then I welcome them to the Great American Memorial Day House Sale ™. Hurray, once these deals are gone, they’re gone (or at least until the 4th of July sale).
“Can foreign buyers really get mortgages?”
Not to my knowledge. These guys reportedly are all-cash buyers.
But if U.S. buyers coming in with GSE-subsidized mortgages drive up the price, then the Canadian and Chinese investors have the opportunity to pull up the stakes, leaving the debt-strapped U.S. buyers, not to mention the U.S. taxpayers who guaranteed the federally-financed mortgages, holding the bag.
This is what I fully expect to happen within the next five years.
Canadians can get US loans. I think they have to put 20-30% down. But reportedly some are using heloc money for the down payment.
Those who put in 20%-30% are more likely to be among tomorrow’s victim class, as the all-cash guys can quickly liquidate and leave, as needed.
These folks are (soon) going to be forced to liquidate their properties in the US to make good on their ever-increasing mortgages in Canada. MOST mortgage rates in Canada are only guaranteed for FIVE years. The Canadian banks have already announced they are going to go UP.
Sooo… a 3% increase in mortgage rates will nearly double their payments. (being the hot time in the Canadian mortgage market has been the “2.99%” loan)
As we remember, this doesn’t happen overnight, so the Canadian selloff of US properties could take years, only adding to the true “bottom” of the US market.
Those who put in 20%-30% are more likely to be among tomorrow’s victim class, as the all-cash guys can quickly liquidate and leave, as needed.
Which is exactly what they are doing here in SF.
Look at this one: bought 1 month ago, back on the market all spiffed up for $609.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1127-Burrows-St-San-Francisco-CA-94134/15168819_zpid/
It says $506K? Did I miss something?
It says $506K? Did I miss something?
506 is the “zestimate”. Our agent just emailed me the MLS this morning, zillow is not showing it as for sale yet.
Here is thie listing: http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-for-sale/CA/San-Francisco/1127-Burrows-St-110_396265.htm
As for the Chinese, aren’t they supoosed to be paying cash?
Went to an open house last Saturday. SFH 3/2 599K.
Chatted with the agent for a while. As we stood there is the kitchen a guy came over and asked if he would take her all-cash offer “right now”.
Agent was clearly irritated and snapped back, “no offers til Tuesday”. We then proceeded to watch another few dozen Chinese speaking lookers file past.
We resumed the chat with the agent in front of the house, and at one point an Asian woman walked by, asked “how much?” and kept walking, as if she were shopping for apples in the farmer’s market.
I kid you not.
Here’s the house. A charmless box. Blech. http://www.trulia.com/property/3082490319-566-Holyoke-St-San-Francisco-CA-94134
Still looking, but backing way off. There’s no urgency here, as long as we can keep our be-atch of a landlord happy.
These posts are great, keep them coming!
That is a very ugly house. Reminds me of some of the less fortunate architechture in Jersey City.
Reminds me of some of the less fortunate architechture in Jersey City
I lived in Jersey City for a summer, way back when the PATH train was 35 cents. It was a hellhole.
I hear it’s all fancy now. Not quite Williamsburg, but still…
35 cents? Really?
I’ve been gone for 7 years now, but it was nice enough in parts. Not everywhere by any means. The area around the park behind the mall was always nice to look at though always perfectly safe.
JC has definitely gentrified beyond expectation.
The parts surrounding the PATH train within walking distance have a lot of nice rentals apparently.
“But a central driver is Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.
It is a huge, crown corporation fully backed by the Government. Until 1999 it had quite tough requirements, including a 10% deposit. Since then it has insured mortgages without limit, without deposits, with amortization of 40 years and the possibility of paying interest only for the first ten years. In 2011 homes became ATM’s, and the average homeowner had only 34% equity in their home, a fall from 55% only 4 years ago. Canadians have pulled $220 bln out of their homes in revolving home equity lines of credit (HELOCs): on a per capita basis, this is about three times as much as the Americans borrowed at the peak of their boom.”
So Canada has its own version of Fannie and Freddie, pumping in subprime credit to inflate housing prices to the moon and beyond…who would’ve guessed?
Here are a few highly-predictable predictions:
1) This government-sponsored lending scheme will collapse within the next decade in a similarly spectacular fashion to the collapse of the U.S. GSEs in Fall 2008.
2) Canadian home prices will crash in response, just as U.S. home prices did in synch with the collapse of Fannie and Freddie.
3) Myriad Canadian housing crash victims will report their sob stories in the MSM, providing HBB posters with an unlimited supply of future Schadenfreude.
4) The Canadian government will force non-victim Canadians to pony up tax dollars to support principle writedowns for the Canadian real estate crash victims with underwater CanMoHoCo mortgages.
Reverse 1 and 2, and you’ve got it right. Without the crash, CMHC won’t have any problems.
Add:
5) Everyone will claim that no one could have seen it coming.
It’s gradually dawning on me that while America may have long ago run out of greater fools with buckets of money and boxes of stupid, there is a large supply of Canadian and Chinese real estate investors who have yet to get educated in Ben Franklin’s dear school for fools. Enjoy your lessons!
And Australians, Koreans, Singaporeans, Russians, Taiwanese, etc.
We welcome you, foreign buyers with buckets of money you made selling us crap we used to make ourselves. Now step right up, because we have a deal for you!
Stupid’s gone global.
Imagine the world we’d be living in now if the govt. had bugged out of the subsidized mortgage biz back in the seventies…
No Meadow Mansions and a whole lot of much smaller conservatively designed, better built houses, and let’s not forget the energy savings that would have accrued if shit holes like “Hotlanta” weren’t surrounded by endless suburbs consisting of thousands of energy hog fiberboard and vinyl big boxes.
‘From then on you have at least a year or more – sometimes up to six years before the properties can actually become available for sale,’ says real estate attorney Anne Weintraub. So why are homes just now going into foreclosure, more than four years after the housing market began to crash? One reason: the robo-signing scandal slowed foreclosures way down, but did not stop them. ‘A pregnant pause, but unfortunately the baby’s coming,’ Weintraub says. ‘We are going to have a lot on the market, I’m sure.’
Sounds like the best opportunities for Florida investors may lie ahead, after the stillborn baby sinks the latest misplaced recovery hopes.
As promised, here is Bogotá, Colombia, part II:
The second-most important issue in the city (besides personal safety, which always is the top concern anywhere in Colombia), is the traffic situation. The only place I’ve ever been where traffic is talked about more is Washington, D.C. Apart from customary hazards associated with the Latin American driving style, Bogotá is dominated by outrageous traffic jams and nothing seems to work: for example, not “pico y placa” licence plate restrictions, because rich people just buy another car, and there were too many cars in the first place, and not a dedicated lane for the “Transmilenio” bus system — with the average speed of the fleet just 27 k.p.h. (barely faster than a bicycle), bus users, young delinquents and alleged political opponents of the mayor rioted last month and sacked several stations, forcing the use of tear gas.
To ameliorate this, various consultants have suggested light rail and a metro, along the lines of a system that works very effectively in Medellín. These suggestions, not surprisingly, are opposed by the usual group of powerful interests who benefit financially from people buying cars and then sitting in them for large parts of the day. One newpaper columnist wryly noted that, at the precise time when the country as a whole is attracting more international “interest” (the Secret Service scandal will be in my part III), its capital is descending into chaos.
The situation is not helped by the miserable condition of the roads. Even in very modern, nice parts of town, huge, axle-breaking potholes have formed, and no one seems to be doing anything about it. When I gently asked a relative “what entity is responsible for fixing this,” I provoked a 10-minute rant that began “Responsibility? RESPONSIBILIITY? THERE’S SUCH A THING AS RESPONSIBILITY?!” and ended with “This country is crazy. Just crazy.” Another friend, more diplomatic, responded tongue-in-cheek with “The city’s public works department is, uh, not very efficient right now.” Media pressure isn’t bringing a response, and now that winter rains have arrived, everything is going to get worse.
But I am pleased to announce that a solution to this has been found. Cue the deer!
http://bdbacata.com/newsite/
That’s right — in a country with two active guerilla movements and periodic electricity disruptions, and where not making yourself a target is an art form, an ego-driven Spanish architect has designed a flashy 66-story mixed-use tower as the city’s new signature building. It is intended to be the tallest building in South America and is advertised, no joke, as “the first grain of sand towards solving the problems of Bogotá.” The last group of apartments recently went on sale, although real construction has yet to begin.
I’ve spent time in that neighborhood, and driven by the site several times, and the barrio is … sketchy. Not sketchy by Western standards (because all of Colombia is sketchy by Western standards), I mean sketchy by Colombian standards. Petty crime, grafffitti, marginal businesses and street vendors selling cell phone minutes. Anyone planning on living there had better vary his or her routine, because there are going to be spotters all over the place. You better be alert regardless, because walking out of that building and hailing a taxi is just asking for a “paseo millionario” — the taxi driver picks up a friend, who compels you to reveal your debit card PIN number, and the three of you then take a jaunt to the nearest ATM for a withdrawal of your daily limit.
Here’s a weekend discussion topic: why do gigantic luxury buildings like this keep cropping up everywhere? We’re not getting any richer.
I forgot my favorite quote. The Spanish architect of BD Bacata was interviewed, and said with understatement “sabía que será un proyecto polémico” (”I knew this would be a controversial project”). No s**t!
for example, not “pico y placa” licence plate restrictions, because rich people just buy another car
Is that the rule where your car can’t circulate a certain day of the week? They’ve been doing that in Mexico City for decades.
Yes. Based on the numbers of its license plate, each car has two days when it cannot be driven. The fine for violating the restriction is extremely punitive.
Two days? Ouch! In Mexico City it was one day (M-F).
When I gently asked a relative “what entity is responsible for fixing this,” I provoked a 10-minute rant that began “Responsibility? RESPONSIBILIITY? THERE’S SUCH A THING AS RESPONSIBILITY?!” and ended with “This country is crazy. Just crazy.”
Typical 3rd World nation, this is what awaits us.
because walking out of that building and hailing a taxi is just asking for a “paseo millionario” — the taxi driver picks up a friend, who compels you to reveal your debit card PIN number
Something that should give pause to anyone who doesn’t care that we are becoming a nation of lucky duckies or who advocates taking away their food stamps.
There is a body of Colombian slang used to describe various crimes. Another big problem is the “fleteo,” which describes a robbery immediately after a person has withdrawn cash from an ATM. The criminals often work in teams of four: there is a spotter with a cell phone who stands or sits nearby looking innocuous; a marker who does something (it can be asking a question, or bumping into someone) to highlight the victim; a follower who tails the marked victim on a motorcycle; and the grabber, who rides shotgun on the motorcycle and dismounts to physically separate the victim from his or her cash.
So, i guess what the US economy needs is a bunch of these “undocumented workers” trolling the city streets of the US of A, and robbing everyone blind. I am sure they will spend the money pronto, so that will stimulate growth in the economy.
that’s “multiculturalism” at its finest.
No reason not to let them just come up from the south through mexico.
I would call this true entrepreneurial spirit. Others would say they are just a gang of thugs, but I’m trying to get more into the spirit of mutual respect, equality and the oneness of us all.
“But it is fine if they are just buying the properties for fun.”
It’s all fun and games until 150 million people starve to death.
“Tamara Treleaven, 28, owns three investment properties worth $830,000. She aims to be a property millionaire by the age of 30 and financially independent by 40. ‘The whole idea is we’ve got time in the market, so we’re not planning on selling. The little ups and downs, the property cycles, don’t concern us because we have the long-term view,’ she said.”
Yep, that’s all you need is to have the long-term view, don’t worry about cash flow or buyers or other pesky details. If it was this easy, wouldn’t everybody by a property millionaire?
She aims to be a property millionaire</i?
My younger sister thought the same, until she lost her shirt on a rental property, which she ended up selling at a loss. She really thought that it would be easy, just collect the rent everymonth while equity soared. Instead what happened was:
Tenants didn’t pay the rent and had to be evicted.
Tenants trashed the place. They ruined the carpet, destroyed cabinetry, lots of drywall damage and the yard was ruined by their dog (not alllowed per the rental agreement).
It took months to sell the house, while it sat empty, with a mortgage payment due each month. The repair costs were over $5000.
I’m surprised at the number of people who think renting out a house or apartment will be easy, and will cover carrying costs and then some. My landlord has been losing money for six years.
That is why, if you’ve been at is a while, you ALWAYS get first, last and a BIG security deposit when giving the keys, after a credit check. People will almost always screw you if they don’t have their own money at risk, and UNFORTUNATELY, all the goody-do-gooders in government have worked tirelessly to favor the TENANT.
It’s hard to get them out, and it’s hard to get your money if they screw you over.
And, of course, if there is ANYTHING that needs to be repaired, they will be on the phone demanding that you fix it, even if its 2 am. IF you don’t, they will be on the phone to some government agency filing a complaint and saying they aren’t going to pay the rent.
Residential housing can be a real pain unless you are renting at high end markets and get advance CASH.
“It is a huge, crown corporation fully backed by the Government. Until 1999 it had quite tough requirements, including a 10% deposit. Since then it has insured mortgages without limit, without deposits, with amortization of 40 years and the possibility of paying interest only for the first ten years. In 2011 homes became ATM’s, and the average homeowner had only 34% equity in their home, a fall from 55% only 4 years ago. Canadians have pulled $220 bln out of their homes in revolving home equity lines of credit (HELOCs): on a per capita basis, this is about three times as much as the Americans borrowed at the peak of their boom.”
That’s really crazy. For the past several years we’ve been hearing how financially conservative Canadians are and I’d been wondering (based on what I hear out of Vancouver) what the catch was. Now I know. And to make it all better, they don’t have 30-year fixed loans in Canada. It’s all adjustable rate mortgages with a limited fixed term at the beginning.
The Canadian government announced this week that it’s placing CMHC under the authority of the banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI). They will now have the power to look at the books of CMHC in the same way as they look at other private financial institutions in Canada. That will result in much tighter control than this agency has been under in the past.
The Finance Minister has also mused about taking CMHC out of the mortgage default insurance business all together:
“Over time, I don’t think it’s essential that a government financial institution provide mortgage insurance in Canada. I think what’s key is that mortgage insurance is available at a reasonable cost in Canada. I think there is a role to regulate but whether we, the Canadian people, have to be the owners and shareholders of a financial institution to do this is a question. I don’t think it’s essential in the long run.”
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/27/cmhc-could-be-pulled-out-of-mortgage-insurance-business-flaherty-says/
More houses are showing up for sale in my area after a red hot Spring selling season. will have to see how many of the Pending homes acually close
My short sale story;
Right now I’m just ignoring the realtor like she ignored me most of the time since JAN when I first made the offer at 385K then went up to 395K as a final offer, but wait the 2nd wants a little more now so its 400k no deal there
I’m out
I’m out
Fold?