The Exurb Conundrum
Readers suggested a topic on living environments. “I would like to see a topic on the future of the exurbs. The Washington Post had an article recently on how outer exurbs are dwindling. According to the article, somewhere between 30% to 50% of people in the US would like to live in a walkable urban environment. Add that to high gas prices, and the prognosis doesn’t look good for the exurbs.”
“I have noticed that everyone I know who lives in an exurb has ended up with a horrid commute sooner or later. Sooner or later people switch jobs. When that happens it’s rare that people living in exurbs can get another job close to where they live. One of the reasons why I lean toward the walkable urban option even if its in a suburb is because I have seen exurbanites and their commutes. I can tell you that the younger end of generation X and generation Y have noticed it too and want to avoid the exurban commutes if at all possible.”
A reply, “I think what you’re more likely to see is exurban satellite office sprawl, if the industries can stay in business long enough. For example there is an SAIC/Bechtel office building in Frederick, Maryland, an exurb of DC. The SAIC workers can live in a McMansion a 10-minute drive, or even closer, to the office. But they can easily train/metro for an hour only on days when they have meetings with the gov workers downtown. For those who want the walkable urban feel, the housing bubble has already built the walkable urban environments — I’ve seen dozens of work-here-live-here-shop-here condos developments in such towns.”
“With video and telecommuting, we may see a return to the small town supported by one industry, only instead of being a tire factory or a lumber mill, it’s a white-collar office building.”
Another said, “I am currently antagonizing over the walkable/exurb conundrum. In Pinellas County, FL., the best academic school pattern is in a far-flung, car-only exurb. Some of the toughest schools are in gorgeous, walkable parts of St. Pete. In other ‘middle ground’ areas, you have both problems: mediocre schools and unwalkable ‘hoods’.”
“We spend, get this, about 20% of our take-home on motoring: $400 gas, $410 car payment (one is paid for), $200 insurance. This doesn’t even include routine maintenance or big ticket repairs.”
From KTAR. “The rapid population growth that drove Arizona’s economy before the Great Recession could return in large part within several years as things improve elsewhere, experts say. Elliott D. Pollack, CEO of the economic and real estate consulting firm Elliott D. Pollack & Co., said Arizona’s economic growth depended on adding 100,000 people every year. The population boom fueled growth in ‘people-serving’ jobs, such as doctors, real estate agents and salespeople, he said.”
“Pollack said he doesn’t expect Arizona to return to the job growth of 2007, just before the crash, until 2015. ‘It will be almost a lost decade,’ he said.”
“Marshall Vest, an economist with the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management, said many people across the country can’t move because they owe more on their homes than they’re worth. ‘We’re experiencing the lowest mobility in this country that we’ve seen at least in 60 years,’ he said.”
“Pollack said that Arizona will eventually lure more people because of factors that include climate and relatively inexpensive housing. ‘Have any of those dynamics changed? Not really,’ he said.”
The Modesto Bee. “Stanislaus County homes sold for a median $129,000 last month, which was about the same price as two years ago. The long-predicted housing market recovery just isn’t manifesting itself in higher home values. ‘This is the market. That says it all,’ advised Lorraine Cardoza, who has been selling real estate for more than 30 years. ‘What was going on (during the housing boom) wasn’t normal. It was outrageous.’”
“Cardoza said homeowners and buyers must realize that ‘craziness’ is over, and those high prices are not going to return anytime soon. That’s a tough reality to face for people who purchased houses during the first five years of this century. The market was soaring then, and their homes seemed to gain value every month.”
“Stanislaus home prices peaked at a median $396,000 in late 2005, then fell steadily until leveling off about two years ago, according to DataQuick. Some homes are particularly hot sellers. Oliveira said three-bedroom homes priced at less than $160,000 typically sell within a week. ‘Homes priced to the market are getting multiple offers and selling quickly,’ said Cardoza. But pricing a home ‘to the market’ can be heartbreaking for homeowners who have watched their equity disappear. That’s because all homes now must compete with prices fetched by foreclosures.”
“‘Nobody is adjusting (home valuations) based on whether it’s a traditional sale, bank-owned or a short sale,’ Cardoza said.”
The Charlotte Observer. “The Vue’s new owner has started foreclosure proceedings on the luxury residential high-rise in uptown, according to court documents filed Tuesday. Northwood Investors paid about $100 million to take control of the complex in early April. The 409-unit condominium tower was announced during the real estate boom and was one of the few uptown high-rise projects to be finished despite the recession. Yet, the Vue’s developer struggled to sell units and close sales on contracts signed in better economic times.”
“Real Estate Alert has speculated that the tower, which offers an Olympic-size swimming pool and tennis courts, is ripe to be turned into apartments. Investors have eagerly snapped up multifamily complexes and announced new apartment projects in the Charlotte area. Rents are forecast to rise as more people turn to renting.”
“The Vue has said it had about half the units under contract but it has closed sales on less than two dozen condos. Some buyers have sued to get out of their contracts. Others say they have had trouble getting financing because appraisals for the condos are coming in below contracted sales prices.”
“Also this week, a couple sued the Vue asking for their $90,987 deposit back. Stephanie Rizzo and David Rizzo of Wake County said in court filings they agreed to pay $699,900 for a two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo but that the developer changed the floor plan, eliminating one bedroom, and downgraded the quality of promised appliances. The couple says they informed the developer within the allowed two-year timeframe that they wanted out of the deal, according to documents filed in federal court.”
The Herald Tribune. “A Georgia firm has bought land in downtown Sarasota that had been planned as a 17-story condo tower during the mid-2000s real estate boom. Jebco Ventures Inc.’s $1.5 million purchase represents the latest sign the Sarasota real estate market, long in the doldrums, is recovering. ‘We bought it for the location and because of the price, and because I believe there is a market in downtown Sarasota for either townhomes or apartments,’ Jim Bridges, Jebco Ventures’ CEO said Friday.”
“Jebco could build up to 73 units on the 2.2-acre tract, bounded by Ringling Boulevard and the Laurel Park neighborhood. The land had been planned for Atrium on Ringling, an 88-unit, luxury condo tower. Atrium fell victim to market oversupply in June 2008, when Fifth Third Bank foreclosed, according to county records. Fifth Third sold the land to Jebco. The Jebco deal illustrates just how far the market has sunk: When Atrium developer Leonard Garner bought the property in 2005, it traded for $12.36 million.”
“‘At these prices, we could see new development,’ said John Harshman, president of a Sarasota commercial real estate brokerage. ‘It’s one of the positives regarding banks taking back parcels — that in order get property off their books, they’re selling at prices they can get in the market today.’”
Being in the foreclosure biz, I visit a lot of different types of houses in a variety of locations. The most common thought I have is, why would anyone want to live here? But people do live there; lots of them. Middle of nowhere mobile homes, but on 4 acres. Garage majals sitting 5 feet from each other but on the edge of town.
I ask, why in places like Arizona do we have so many ’second homes’? Is the primary living arrangement so distasteful these people in the cities have to ‘get away’ several times a year?
Much of the discussion on this topic centers on jobs. I realize there are lots of good jobs in places like DC, but that isn’t the case in Arizona. And on this: ‘We spend, get this, about 20% of our take-home on motoring…This doesn’t even include routine maintenance or big ticket repairs.’
What about the decades-long trend of falling wages in the US? How much of the metro-concentration is due to the inability of people to afford single family houses and the gas bills that come with them?
There are a lot of people driving cars who should not be. They cannot afford the fuel, let alone the maintenance and repair. That does not factor in the insurance which most illegals don’t even have. The model is broken.
There are a lot of people driving cars who should not be.
A small house along my bike route to work has a new BMW and new Ford SUV in the driveway, probably $80k worth of loans. However, the lawn is uncut and filled with flowering dandelions, and a pile of broken furniture sits next to the garage with weeds growing through them.
I ask, why in places like Arizona do we have so many ’second homes’? Is the primary living arrangement so distasteful these people in the cities have to ‘get away’ several times a year?
But you know the answer to the question you are asking, Ben!
They are speculating that their “getaway” is making money for them when in fact, as any rational person knows, it’s a money pit.
You might as well just pay cash for your vacation. How many do you take anyway?
You might as well just pay cash for your vacation. How many do you take anyway?
Especially in America, where paid time off is handed out with a stinginess that would make Ebenezer Scrooge proud.
Yeah, but I mean within the idea of speculating, why a second house that’s going to sit empty most of the time? The desire to make money would explain the house over a time share. But something else has to justify why they wouldn’t just buy a another house and rent it out, even if it was cash flow negative.
I’m just thinking out loud about this idea in the topic, and that these second houses are typically in very different areas from where they live.
Yeah, but I mean within the idea of speculating, why a second house that’s going to sit empty most of the time?
Again, you know the answer, Ben!
Leverage.
Everyone loves leverage. You can only leverage 2:1 in the equity markets but in the housing market, the sky is the limit!
I got a substantial lecture about leverage and how it was the secret to making money from a work collegeue. I think the condo he and his wife bought and rent out was losing $800 a month before they lost the tennant and had to find a new one at a lower rate. It is also substantially underwater. Not even a realistic walking distance to the Metro. Unbelieveable.
You do realize that mathematically leverage magnifies both gains AND losses, right?
Up until bankruptcy, I suppose. There is a lower bound.
I believe I did point out to him that it only worked as long as the value went up, but he and his wiofe regularly gave me a ride hom from the metro station if it was raining (not that far, but the parking lot part was not properly graded to shed water). I didn’t prod too far. And they are still retiring at the end of the year, so I guess they don’t consider it too much of a burden.
Two professional salaries and buying their primary residence when interest rates were sky high and prices therefore lower made a big difference in their finances. They are retiring in their early 60s and each of the three kids has mid 6 figure trust funds.
They sound like your version of my “wine friends”.
Not real friends just ones that pour excellent wine. Ironically, they already know my opinions. They just don’t push it and I enjoy the wine.
I don’t get as much out of it socially as you do, but they are nice enough people, and she is very generous with work advice.
If it comes up (rarely) I do correct her when she says they can’t sell the condo. I remind her that it can always be sold at some price. She makes a face and says “not happening.” I think they are going to be landlords for a long time. Then there is the one in Summerville that was purchased for a daughter to live in during med school, I think. That one is so far underwater that a realtor friend of theirs won’t even list it. Flat out refuses. But she says the rent (students) covers the cash costs, so they aren’t too worried about it. Except for complaining every year when they have to use a weeks worth of vacation to supervise the clean up and change over from one group of stundent renters to the next group.
The heat in the Phoenix area is pretty outrageous for four months out of every year, so it is nice for people to get up to your part of the state on the weekends. It’s a probably a combination of that and the hope for capital gains that make people buy their northern AZ cabins.
I think, with some, the second house is bought as a place to eventually retire and to use as a vacation house occasionally in the interim. How viable or wise that is, I can’t say.
Ben
I know a lot of senior Canadians who have a second home in Arizona. The dry hot weather is apparently great for people with asthma as well.
Good Heavens! Why would I want a second home? I spend enough time keeping up the one we live in. And I’m not rich enough to pay someone to take care of a second home.
That’s the beauty of it…you don’t have to be. It can pay for the upkeep itself, AND make you rich at the same time.
It think it so ironic that the re-al-TOR TV shows on Sunday morning feature homes with the huge master bath and bubbly tub so that they “can get away from it all.” And such a house is usually a sizable commute from the office (in the outer burbs) so they can get away from the noise of the city.
So why would the homeowner need to buy another house? To get away from getting away from it all?
Thanks, I’d rather go to a bed and breakfast, or rent a getaway cabin.
I’ve discovered that, for a suburbanite, getting a second home in order to get away is akin to getting a big pickup truck on the occasional chance that something needs to get hauled from the Home Depot.
As it turns out, the Home Depot rents trucks which are much bigger and more effective at hauling stuff than anything I would be interested in buying. So, every so often I can shell out 40 or 50 bucks and rent the truck instead of buying a behemoth. Similarly, if one wishes to go on vacation, shell out a few grand and go on vacation instead of spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to own a white elephant.
Agreed. People with more money than brains buy a second home that is vacant in the off season. Better to rent the second home for a few months. And the nice thing about it is you can spend the next year several month getaway elsewhere.
Realistially, I get away from my job one week out of the year. Even in the good years when I am paid overtime, that means the money is so good that a $4,500 week versus a $2,000 week vacation means a $6,500 vacation since I have no paid vacation days. OTOH if I just forfeit my timeshare and pay the $1,000 membership for the year I have a $3,500 net gain that week by working.
I had forced vacation in December, so used my timeshare. This year is looking more dismal anymore uncertain than 2011 for me, so I might have to take a couple of several week-long vacations.
IOW, I only take vacations in crummy years in my career.
Is every single thing in your life about the dollar?
Yes since I had nothing for the first 28 years of my life but a car and the clothes on my back. But I suppose if I was born into a wealthy family or my parents spoiled me, I would be a commie like you.
We found that many of our neighbors love Arizona they just can’t afford to live here because they underestimated what it cost for the good life
“According to the article, somewhere between 30% to 50% of people in the US would like to live in a walkable urban environment.”
Yeah, if they had apartments like the cast of Friends, six figure incomes, good urban schools, low crime, clean parks, abundant parking, and inexpensive stabling for their unicorns.
I would go nuts living in such close proximity with so many people. I do not have the patience for other people’s bad habits. Obnoxiously loud music, public drunkenness, street begging druggies, filth, knock-down-drag-out brawls by the neighbors who share a common wall, robbery, you name it. No thanks. I’d rather live in a single wide on the outskirts of any town.
I take it you’ve never actually lived in a civilized urban environment.
I live in a building with foot-thick brick walls. I can’t hear a thing, and never have. We’ve tried the experiment. I’ve blasted my music and my neighbors who are good friends couldn’t hear a peep.
I get to walk to the symphony and the opera, mosey down to all the plays on Broadway, hop on the subway to eat across the globe (everything from Armenian to Uzbek) and converse in half a dozen languages all of which I am fluent at.
Why would anyone live on the outskirts of town with semi-literate people who, oh the horror, do manual labor on their houses, speak only one language and are completely not au courant with the great wide world that we live in?
How old a building do you in?
I have friends that moved downtown to be close to the bar scene that were mad to woken up every morning at 2 am when the bar closes with noisy drunk patrons leaving and again at 5 am when the trash trucks show up and start emptying the dumpsters.
Urban living isn’t always that cool when you have to be to work at 8 am every morning ready to work and not hung over and falling a sleep.
There’s a lot of variations on this:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/making-rooms-at-the-top-20120424-1xj9b.html
‘Big towers are grabbing the headlines as Melbourne grapples with trying to fit more residents into the city’s existing boundaries. However, boutique projects are also driving a quiet revolution in the suburbs - especially the inner suburbs - as developers and good architects together target traditional shopping strips.’
‘Building apartments above shops is nothing new, but now a project is just as likely to be an apartment block of more than 90 units above a supermarket. The target market is those who like a bit of luxury; the swirling motifs of the ”emblems” that decorate the facade are a point of elegance, as are the marble floors of the lobby.’
‘Mr Battersby said the company was doing more and more such mixed-use projects. One completed last year was a 19-apartment block in Main Street, Mornington, with a northern frontage of shops and an Italian restaurant and food store on the ground floor.’
”Some of these projects are great brownfield sites, usually beautifully located in terms of public transport and car parks,” he said. ”It’s a new wave of urban rejuvenation.”
‘Once, there were concerns about living above a supermarket. Now, the closer you are to the supermarket, the better it is - a lack of cars, people not owning cars, wanting to be in the heart of a groovy suburb,” Mr Rothe told BusinessDay. ‘They want to live above a new streamlined supermarket. Governments have been pushing this type of medium-high-density living in activities areas for some time. It’s become the preferred investment for apartment owners.”
There’s that word; investment.
How old a building do you in?
It’s ancient. Built in 1925 before the concept of concrete and steel beams. It has load-bearing walls and places to stick your eggs and milk since ice was a major expense back then.
Built during that “other” bubble.
“I take it you’ve never actually lived in a civilized urban environment.”
I’ve never lived in an urban environment, period. In fact, I’ve never even lived in an apartment. Big dogs and BBQ’s don’t mesh well with such environs. Different strokes for different folks.
I would get a Phoenix loft if I could have such noise-proof walls. So far I have not been informed of any like that. There are classy brownstone units for sale in Tempe. I wonder how noisy those are?
“I take it you’ve never actually lived in a civilized urban environment.”
Aren’t those the ones with the million dollar+ apartments and lofts?
I would go nuts living in such close proximity with so many people. I do not have the patience for other people’s bad habits. Obnoxiously loud music, public drunkenness, street begging druggies, filth, knock-down-drag-out brawls by the neighbors who share a common wall, robbery, you name it. No thanks. I’d rather live in a single wide on the outskirts of any town.
That’s why I doubt that the poll numbers that say that 30% to 50% would prefer to live in urban environment. Most people these days seem to think that anybody who shares a wall with someone else is basically a loser.
I am fortunate here in L.A. With my 92 walkability neighborhood. Both my neighbors on either side are very quiet. So am I. My balcony faces a feeder street off the main street, so not noisy. Everything I want is walkable. Grocers, coffee shop, restaurants, shopping mall, banks, my doctor, movie theater.
Two levels below on the other side is a jerk who blares out music. I only hear it when walking outside on the sidewalk. I am fortunate. I picked this studio sight unseen.
Parking is a problem but not impossible. There are some cars that cost double what mine did brand new and they are street side parked. It’s just that if I want to go to one of my favorite spots in the evening, I will have to park a quarter mile from my apartment when I come back home.
I wish there was a Whole Foods within a walk though.
We keep forgetting there’s a reason the middle class fled to the suburbs.
Yeah, when I travel I watch a little TV. There’s a reality show called ‘doomsday preppers’ that I didn’t watch but saw the ad for. Odd that any reality show would have doomsday in the title.
The number one shelter builder on the show - Deep Earth Bunkers - is located in downtown Dallas.
A bunker actually makes sense in downtown Dallas.
We keep forgetting there’s a reason the middle class fled to the suburbs
A lot of that involved government policies, such as the 1950s build-out of the interstate highway system, the MID and deductibility of property taxes.
L.A. riots scared me from considering L.A. for at least a decade. The local rags are replaying the ugly events. I don’t want to relive it. I watched it all from the safety of my living room 150 miles away.
Schools are the biggest reason why middle class families do not linger in the big city.
We did four years living in Washington, DC. During the last year, our oldest kid did a year at a very tolerable public elementary school. Despite what you may have heard, DC actually has a lot of good options for public elementary. However, the situation is very dire for public middle school and high school. That’s the point where middle class families flee for the suburbs or private school.
We moved to a medium-sized city in Texas and enjoy a much nicer standard of living than we would in DC. We live in the city proper (which is urban in the negative rather than the positive trendy sense), but are able to send kids to a very nice private school.
It’s impossible to discuss middle class neighborhood choices without talking about school quality.
We moved from the Portland Oregon area (which is considered livable and much of it considered walkable) to Houston Texas because of jobs. There were none in Oregon and I got a very nice one in Houston. We recently moved into a very nice home in a suburb of Houston and to buy the same thing in the Portland area would have cost at LEAST 3 times as much. There is NOTHING in an urban area that appeals to me, while my SFH allows me the things that make me happy, my own plot of grass, gardens and trees (they are MINE, not a shared commodity). I can take out walls, replace walls, paint walls and the outside of the house as I like - to me, urban living is just one step above being in jail. Again, there are those who love it … I’m NOT one of those. I thank the Lord everyday for making it so that I had to move away from Portland. Don’t ever see myself going back there even though that is where I was born and raised and a lot of my family is still there.
I cannot stand the heat of the southwest/southern US. There is nothing more beautiful than summers in the PNW. I’d live in a single wide trailer in the PNW before I’d ever move down there. Prices are still ridiculous, but in time they will find equilibrium.
I’m from western Washington State and the summers are lovely, but that’s what, two months? That leaves 10 months of the year of rain, chill (the damp makes the temperatures feel colder than they are), and seasonal depression.
Texas is the other way around–if you can hack the several hot months (and freaky big roaches), you get rewarded with the majority of the year being sunny and moderate.
‘This is the market. That says it all,’ advised Lorraine Cardoza, who has been selling real estate for more than 30 years. ‘What was going on (during the housing boom) wasn’t normal. It was outrageous.’
Pollack said that Arizona will eventually lure more people because of factors that include climate and relatively inexpensive housing. ‘Have any of those dynamics changed? Not really,’ he said.”
Well the inexpensive housing changed, didn’t it, Elliott? It got expensive and now it’s getting cheap again. In any case, it’s good to hear one of these guys admit that people move to AZ for the cheap housing, not just the melanoma. If houses had actually stayed expensive, that would have been a major hindrance to the state economy.
Only the crap 30+ miles from metro or in the hood were “cheap” for about 18 months, the rest are still too expensive.
From the Modesto Bee: “Homes priced to the market are getting multiple offers and selling quickly,” agreed Cardoza, who sells for PMZ Real Estate. But pricing a home “to the market” can be heartbreaking for homeowners who have watched their equity disappear. That’s because all homes now must compete with prices fetched by foreclosures.
No mention of the 16% unemployment in Stanislas Co., which is certainly higher if calculated realistically, and this is on the good side of town where working families live.
No mention either, I assume, that Modesto has one of the highest foreclosure rates for any municipality in the country.
April 26, 2012
US Metro Foreclosure Activity Up In 1Q From 4Q - RealtyTrac
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
The number of foreclosure filings in most U.S. metropolitan areas in the first quarter increased from the prior quarter, but foreclosure activity still decreased for most major cities on an annual basis, according to the latest report from market researcher RealtyTrac.
“First-quarter metro foreclosure trends were a mixed bag,” said Chief Executive Brandon Moore. “While the majority of metro areas continued to show foreclosure activity down from a year ago, more than half reported increasing foreclosure activity from the previous quarter–an early sign that long-dormant foreclosures are coming out of hibernation in many local markets.”
First-quarter foreclosure activity increased from the fourth quarter in 54% of the nation’s 212 metropolitan areas with a population of 200,000 or more. However, 64% of these areas saw a decline in foreclosure activity on a year-over-year basis.
Similarly, 26 of the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas experienced a quarter-over-quarter increase in foreclosure activity in the latest period, while 33 of these areas saw fewer foreclosure filings on an annual basis. Pittsburgh saw the biggest sequential increase at 49%, followed by Indianapolis’s and Philadelphia’s sequential increases of 37% and 30%, respectively.
Stockton, Calif., posted the nation’s highest metropolitan foreclosure rate last quarter. One in every 60 Stockton housing units had a foreclosure filing during the quarter, more than three times the national average. There were a total of 3,912 Stockton properties with default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions in the latest period, down 13% from the prior quarter and down 19% from a year earlier.
Nearby Modesto, Calif., had the second-highest metropolitan foreclosure rate, with a rate that was fractionally lower than Stockton’s. RealtyTrac said 10 other California cities were among the metropolitan areas with the 20 highest foreclosure rates last quarter.
The Las Vegas-Paradise area had the eighth-highest nationwide foreclosure rate; one in every 82 housing units had a foreclosure filing last quarter. The area saw a substantial drop-off in foreclosure activity in the latest period, with foreclosure filings down 26% from the prior quarter and down 61% from a year earlier.
…
“According to the article, somewhere between 30% to 50% of people in the US would like to live in a walkable urban environment.”
Aspirational doesn’t mean much. Lets try some other questions. I’m sure if you asked random people if they’d like to live in a RV full time and travel the lower 48, they’d say “sure, OK”. Or homestead on a ranch or farm, “fun fun fun”. How about a live aboard sailboat, “yeah, that would be fun”. How about live in the wilderness as a forest ranger, “wow exciting sign me up”. Would ya like to live like the cast of Friends in a walkable urban environment and date either Jennifer Aniston or Matt LeBlanc or both or whoever on the cast lights your fire, “As long as its OK with my spouse, sounds good to me”.
As far as I know the only lifestyle listed above without extreme overproduction, is obviously the forest ranger, there’s only so many fire towers to man, so if 40% say it sounds cool and 0.0004% actually apply that sucks for them if there are only positions open for hire for 0.0000004% of the population right now. For everyone else, there’s 1M empty condos, boats for sale, parking lots full of RVs, etc.
Totally true. What sounds nice is not necessarily what people are willing to live with long-term.
When I get tired of the rat race and start my own business at home or nearby, my pick is Tempe, Az. I need a dry climate for my bones but would rent a cabin in Flagstaff from June to September to work from there. Tempe is very walkable. The light rail goes to the airport and downtown Phoenix. I would not need a car.
I keep saying “in four years!”
Here’s a story from close to home:
My teenage daughter’s friend’s parents both lost their jobs in the Great Recession, with no household-level recovery so far. Their personal Southern California “Oil City Plan” is a move to Yucca Valley, where they reportedly own property.
I have neither the curiosity nor the temerity to investigate whether they are “real estate investors…”
Suburban living I think will stay plausible because of the increased mileage for cars (more than double and growing), skype, and the vastly improved communication systems. Lower costs per square foot means lower taxes.
High fuel prices, aging population wanting to be closer to a hospital, better public transportation, all say go downtown.
We moved to the exurbs two years ago, away from the city on three acres. We did it for a number of reasons
* If things really collapse you don’t want to be in an urban environment, period. Think Watts riots of years gone by.
* Most of our income is sourced over the Internet. When we have to do a commute, yes it is long, but it is infrequent.
* We have a sideline business in growing various products. It has reached the point that it pays for most of the expenses of the property.
Live in the City? Been there, done that (way too long), won’t be returning.