The Housing Bubble

This relates to Posers comment the other day that even state/federal goons should be worried.

I may have an opportunity (no offer yet) to operate Race to the Top somewhere in upstate NY. The thing is, it would only be a two year appointment, and when grant funded activities end, you… are left hanging, unless you are in-district, as I am now. In other words, I’m a federal goon, but serve my goonie duties in the district that I have 6 years in.

If I made the leap, and returned home to upstate, and then Obama is not re-elected, I’d probably be unemployed in two years. IMO there is a good chance Romney would renew RTTT, but who knows?

Great article on RTTT
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/diane-ravitch/obamas-race-to-the-top-wi_b_666598.html

It gives me a little comfort that my project is student based. The money I spend goes to lab equipment, teacher training and whatnot. Many of the RTTT dollars go to business contracts.

This was in my Email.

The $50 Lesson

Recently, while I was working in the flower beds in the front yard, my neighbors stopped to chat as they returned home from walking their dog.

During our friendly conversation, I asked their 12 year old daughter what she wanted to be when she grows up. She said she wanted to be President some day.

Both of her parents - liberal Democrats - were standing there, so I asked her, “If you were President what would be the first thing you would do?”

She replied, “I’d give food and houses to all the homeless people.”

Her parents beamed with pride!

“Wow…what a worthy goal!” I said. “But you don’t have to wait until you’re President to do that!” I told her.

“What do you mean?” she replied.

So I told her, “You can come over to my house and mow the lawn, pull weeds, and trim my hedge, and I’ll pay you $50. Then you can go over to the grocery store where the homeless guy hangs out, and you can give him the $50 to use toward food and a new house.”

She thought that over for a few seconds, then she looked me straight in the eye and asked, “Why doesn’t the homeless guy come over and do the work, and you can just pay him the $50?”

I said, “Welcome to the Republican Party.”

Her parents aren’t speaking to me any more.

Give me the “Obama bucks!” - YouTube
Mar 25, 2012 … I’m here to get Obama Bucks.by theysaidwhat2012No views · Alexandra Pelosi Q&A for “Homeless: The Motel Kids of Orange County” film …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arOGHY27JwI - 110k - Cached - Similar pages

Am I missing something, or isn’t deficit-cutting austerity generally the Republican economic plan for America?

It might be prudent before leaping to see how this deficit cutting austerity prescription is working for Europe:

The Miami Herald > Business > National Business
Posted on Wednesday, 05.02.12
Eurozone unemployment hits record high

Alice, a homeless woman, left, begs for alms, as people protest against the government’s tough new labor reforms and cutbacks in Pamplona, northern Spain, Tuesday, May 1, 2012. Banging drums and waving flags, tens of thousands of workers marked May Day in European cities Tuesday with a mix of anger and gloom over austerity measures imposed by leaders trying to contain the eurozone’s intractable debt crisis.
Alvaro Barrientos / AP Photo
By PAN PYLAS
AP Business Writer

LONDON — The 17 countries that use the euro are facing the highest unemployment rates in the history of the currency as recession once again spreads across Europe, pressuring leaders to focus less on austerity and more on stimulating growth.

Unemployment in the eurozone rose by 169,000 in March, official figures showed Wednesday, taking the rate up to 10.9 percent - its highest level since the euro was launched in 1999. The seasonally adjusted rate was up from 10.8 percent in February and 9.9 percent a year ago and contrasts sharply with the picture in the U.S., where unemployment has fallen from 9.1 percent in August to 8.2 percent in March. Spain had the highest rate in the eurozone, 24.1 percent - and an alarming 51.1 percent for people under 25.

Austerity has been the main prescription across Europe for dealing with a debt crisis that’s afflicted the continent for nearly three years and has raised the specter of the breakup of the single currency. Three countries - Greece, Ireland and Portugal - have already required bailouts because of unsustainable levels of debt.

Eight eurozone countries, including Greece, Spain and the Netherlands, have seen their economies shrink for two straight quarters or more, the common definition of a recession.

Economies are contracting across the eurozone as governments cut spending and raise taxes to reduce deficits. That has prompted economists to urge European Union policymakers to dial back on short-term budget-cutting and focus on stimulating long-term growth.

“The question is how long EU leaders will continue to pursue a deeply flawed strategy in the face of mounting evidence that this is leading us to social, economic and political disaster,” said Sony Kapoor, managing director of Re-Define, an economic think-tank and policy advisory company.

In a nod to shifting attitudes about austerity, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi recently called for a “growth pact” in Europe to work alongside the “fiscal pact” that has placed so much importance on controlling government spending.

Bailout fears have intensified in recent months as Spain, Italy and other governments face rising borrowing costs on bond markets, a sign that investors are nervous about the size of their debts relative to their economic output. Austerity is intended to address this nervousness by reducing a government’s borrowing needs, but there has been a negative side effect: As economic output shrinks, the debt burden actually looks worse.
…

“Inventory is ratcheting up even as sales are falling.”

I know it is different in Vancouver, but anywhere else on the planet, this development would signal an incipient crash.

Vancouver real estate cools — could Toronto be next?
CBC News
Posted: May 4, 2012 11:06 AM ET
Last Updated: May 4, 2012 3:40 PM ET

Housing market to stay stable, says CMHC

Prices continue to rise in Canada’s two largest real estate markets, but a closer look at the numbers shows two housing markets headed in different directions.

Both cities have been singled out by the Canadian Real Estate Association for either skewing the national numbers higher and lower in recent months. And both cities remain among the hottest real estate markets in the country.

And the similarities don’t end there.

Resale prices move higher

On the surface, new data from real estate boards in the two markets shows prices for resale homes are indeed still rising. In Toronto, the average price of a resale home was $517,556 in April — an 8.5 per cent increase from the same month a year earlier.

The average price in Vancouver, meanwhile, was $683,800 in April, up 3.7 per cent compared to a year ago.

Rising prices are broadly perceived to be the surest sign of a buoyant housing market, but the number of homes sold — and the number of homes listed for sale — tell a different story.

In Vancouver, there were 2,799 sales on the Multiple Listings Service last month. That’s a 13.2 per cent decline from the 3,225 homes sold the same month a year earlier. Indeed, the number of homes sold in April in Vancouver is the lowest total for that month since 2001, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) noted in a release this week.

“Although April sales were below what’s typical for the month, we continue to see … a balanced relationship between buyer demand and seller supply in our marketplace,” REBGV president Eugen Klein said.

Others are not so sure. Real estate analyst Ben Rabidoux with M Partners says the drop-off in sales even as more homes come on the market is a trend worth noting. New Vancouver listings totaled 6,056 in April, more than double the number of homes sold and a 3.6 per cent increase on the level a year earlier.

The new listings figure is 6.7 per cent above the 10-year average for the month.

“This is something I’ve been watching for a while,” Rabidoux said. “Inventory is ratcheting up even as sales are falling.”
…

Will the all-cash Chinese buyers continue investing on the North American West Coast, even as housing prices continue to decline back home?

May 1, 2012, 11:03 p.m. ET

China April Housing Prices Slide For 8th Straight Month

SHANGHAI—Housing prices in 100 major cities in China were lower for the eighth consecutive month in April, China Real Estate Index System said Wednesday.

The data provider said a survey of property developers and real-estate agencies showed the average home price in April was lower at CNY8,711 a square meter, compared with CNY8,741 in March and CNY8,767 in February.

The survey, which the company compiles together with online real-estate brokerage SouFun Holdings Ltd., (SFUN +2.84%) is widely watched after China scrapped a national property price index in February last year.

China Real Estate Index System said property prices in 29 cities rose in April compared with the previous month, while prices in the rest of the 71 cities posted a decline.

Compared with a year earlier, the average price of a new home in April registered a decline for the first time since last June, dropping by 0.71%, according to the survey by SouFun Holdings.

Average home prices in 10 major cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, fell 0.4% to CNY15,391 a square meter in April from a month earlier; on a year-on-year basis, prices declined for a fourth consecutive month in April, down 2.6% from a year earlier.
…

Would Romney be more likely to adopt protectionist measures against China than Obama has been? This article suggests such policy might amount to fighting yesterday’s war.

Economic Scene
China’s Vanishing Trade Imbalance
By EDUARDO PORTER
Published: May 1, 2012

America’s economic imbalance with China has been a singular concern of policy makers for more than half a decade. Senators Charles E. Schumer and Lindsey Graham wanted to punish China for pegging the exchange rate to the dollar in 2005 — arguing that its policy of cheapening the currency to subsidize exports was fueling a huge trade surplus that cost America jobs.

Their bill never passed. But reducing China’s surpluses has remained at the top of the bilateral agenda ever since.

Something unexpected has happened to China’s economy, however. Its surplus with the rest of the world has largely disappeared.

China’s imbalance with the United States is still likely to take center stage when Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner sits down to the fourth round of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue this week. But he will have a harder time making the case that America’s trade deficit is somehow China’s fault.

China’s current-account surplus — the broadest measure of its trade relations, which tracks how much more China exports in goods and services than it imports — has plummeted. In 2007 it amounted to more than 10 percent of the entire Chinese economy.

By last year it had shrunk to about 2.8 percent. And the International Monetary Fund estimates it will decline to 2.3 percent of the nation’s output in 2012, the smallest since 2001.

The United States’ current-account deficit has shrunk, too, to 3.1 percent from 5.1 of American gross domestic product. Senator Schumer and colleagues nonetheless continue to attack China for its cheap currency. Last October the Senate passed a bill, which has yet to pass the House, to let American companies seek duties on Chinese imports to compensate for what is said to be an undervaluation.

Mitt Romney has promised that if he becomes president he will declare China guilty of currency manipulation, something which the Obama administration has declined to do and which would pave the way to slapping duties on Chinese exports.
…

Schumpeter
The Mormon way of business
The Mormons have produced a striking number of successful businesspeople
May 5th 2012 | from the print edition

JOKES about sacred underpants have reached epidemic proportions, thanks to Mitt Romney’s presidential bid and the musical masterpiece by Matt Stone and Trey Parker, “The Book of Mormon”. But the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, to give it its full name, is fighting back. A huge advertising campaign features ordinary people doing ordinary things—a white man sporting a beard, a black man sporting a moustache and a young skateboarder flying through the air—with the tag line: “I’m a Mormon.”

The snag is, not everyone will buy the idea that Mormons are just like the rest of us. They don’t get drunk. They have large families, stable marriages and a three-month supply of food in the larder in case of Armageddon. They are usually clean-cut and neatly dressed (the facial hair in the “I’m a Mormon” ads is thankfully atypical). And they have a passion for business.
…

So far as I can tell, Realtors® essentially control web sites such as Zillow and Redfin to their industry’s advantage. Since these listing web sites have so far been organized as a complement (e.g. Realtor® referral service) rather than a substitute to traditional real estate sales, I am missing the mystery expressed by The Economist writers over the long lived 6 percent real estate commission in America. I imagine it took a while before buggy whip sales commissions were a thing of the past, as well.

American property
The great realtor rip-off
Why is it so expensive to buy or sell a house in America?
May 5th 2012 | from the print edition

I made $970,000 last year. How much did you make?

IN BRITAIN, if you want to sell your home, an estate agent will list the property, find a buyer, help you negotiate a deal and guide you through the transaction, all for a commission of 2-3% of the sale price. In America, realtors provide the same services for roughly double the fee.

Are they worth it? The shouty realtors in David Mamet’s film Glengarry Glen Ross (pictured) certainly think so. (“[My] watch costs more than your car…that’s who I am.”) Others disagree. Chang-Tai Hsieh of the University of Chicago finds that American property brokers cause “social waste” of $8 billion a year via overcharging and inefficiency.

Economists are baffled. The internet has squelched inefficient middlemen in other industries, from insurance brokers to travel agents. Why not American realtors? Although scores of discount brokers and for-sale-by-owner websites have sprouted up, traditional full-service realtors have somehow maintained their market share of 80% without reducing fees.
…

Investing in banks
The not-for-profit sector
…
May 5th 2012 | from the print edition

NARY a cucumber sandwich was thrown and the heckling was rather subdued. But the genteel rebellion over executive pay at the Barclays shareholders’ meeting in London last month, an echo of similar disquiet at annual meetings in America (see article), shows how fed up bank investors have become with their returns.

No wonder. Between 2007 and the end of last year shareholders in banks globally have lost almost 10% of their investment each year, according to the Boston Consulting Group (see chart 1). Behind this international average lie some truly horrible losses. Investors who stuck it out in Dutch banks saw the value of their holdings fall by almost 28% a year. Holders of French, German and Swiss banks suffered average annual losses of close to 20%. Those in American and British banks lost 14% and 16% a year respectively. “The little secret to doing well…has been ‘just don’t hold banks’,” says Jacob de Tusch-Lec, a fund manager at Artemis.

A fall in the price of an asset is usually a good signal to consider buying it. But those investors who thought that they had timed the bottom of the market have been proved wrong again and again. “I’ve been dipping in and out of Italian banks but am keeping very quiet about it,” says one fund manager. “Last year when I told an investor [in my fund] that I was holding some he got up and left the room.”
…

This article suggests a Romney presidency would spell austerity early on, followed by high defense spending but cuts elsewhere in government. Does this seem like a reasonable guess?

Fiscal policy
Cliff-diving
The election will determine whether a nasty dose of austerity can be avoided
May 5th 2012 | WASHINGTON, DC | from the print edition

AMERICANS have watched austerity sweep Europe with a certain Schadenfreude. But eight months from now they may get a dose of the same medicine. The political compromises that have produced much of America’s deficit of 8% of GDP are programmed to go into reverse at the end of the year, two months after the election. A stimulus package consisting of a payroll-tax cut, investment tax credit and enhanced unemployment insurance expires then, as do George W. Bush’s tax cuts (which have already been extended by two years from their original end-date of 2010). At the same time an automatic, across-the-board cut in domestic and defence spending, called a “sequester”, takes effect, cutting about $100 billion from government spending next year.
…
If Barack Obama is re-elected, he will presumably be more willing to let the Bush cuts expire than he was during his first term. He may well not have to worry about the Treasury hitting its debt ceiling until next February. Republicans, who will probably still control the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, may realise this. They may thus be more ready to strike a grand bargain—a deficit plan that both raises some new tax revenue and reduces the growth of entitlements, such as government-funded pensions.

But it would be hard to pass such complex changes by December 31st. At best, the two sides may agree on a framework for a bargain. They would then probably extend some or all of the Bush tax cuts and delay the sequester for a year. Yet there is no guarantee they would use that time wisely and reach a deal. Credit-rating agencies may well lose patience.

If Mitt Romney wins, Republicans, who would probably in that case control the Senate as well as the House, would have no incentive to negotiate with a lame-duck president. They would wait until Mr Romney is sworn in, then (retroactively) make the Bush tax cuts permanent, insulate defence spending from the sequester, and repeal Mr Obama’s health-care reform using a parliamentary process that cannot be filibustered. All that would take months. In the interim Mr Obama would presumably not, as his last act as president, extend the tax cuts he loathes so much or spare Republicans the pain of the sequester. The full force of unintended austerity would bite—for at least a few months.

Was it wrong of me to interpret Bill in LA’s recent crowing about his stellar stock market gains as a shoe-sign-boy moment for the onset of the season of summer stock market declines?

Stock Market Lookahead
‘Jitters’ from Europe
By Hibah Yousuf
@CNNMoneyInvest
May 6, 2012: 7:48 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — When U.S. investors start trading in the coming week, they’ll have two big bits of global news to chew over: Election outcomes in France and Greece.

With limited economic and corporate news due out of the United States next week, “any and all” news out of Europe will be back in focus, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research.

In France, socialist candidate Francois Hollande is widely expected to defeat president Nicolas Sarkozy, raising questions about the future of austerity throughout Europe.

“A change in leadership brings uncertainty because you don’t know exactly what you’re getting into,” said Detrick. “It won’t be a be-all end-all sell signal, but new leadership in France could cause investor jitters that reverberate throughout global financial markets.”

Hollande has campaigned on the need to focus more on economic growth to reduce public debt, as opposed to austerity, which has been the main policy prescription for the three year-old European debt crisis.

While it remains to be seen to what extent Hollande will push his growth agenda, his countering approach causes concerns about how he might work with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the key proponent of austerity.

Meanwhile, in Greece, voters will go to the polls to determine which political parties will make up the new governing coalition, which will play an important role in making sure the country’s austerity program is implemented properly.

After nearing four-year highs at the start of the week, U.S. stocks ended with a thud on Friday, as the S&P 500 logged its biggest weekly decline of the year.
…

Bloomberg News
Dubai Shares Drop in Longest Losing Streak Since 2006
By Zahra Hankir and Ahmed Namatalla on May 06, 2012

Dubai shares fell for an eighth day, the longest losing streak since 2006, after U.S. job data fueled concern the global economy is weakening and on speculation political instability in Iran may intensify.

Emaar Properties PJSC (EMAAR), developer of the world’s tallest skyscraper, decreased 1.9 percent. Dubai Investments PJSC (DIC), whose portfolio includes more than 40 companies, fell to the lowest level in more than two months. The DFM General Index (DFMGI) retreated 1.4 percent to 1,560.28, the lowest since Feb. 16, at the 2 p.m. close in Dubai. The gauge has declined 6.6 percent in the past eight days, trimming a rally for the year to 15 percent. Egyptian stocks advanced for a second day.

“Investment sentiment is negative following weak employment and economic numbers from the U.S. over the weekend,” said Nabil Farhat, a partner at Abu Dhabi-based Al Fajer Securities. “There is also worry about the political turmoil with Iran.”

U.S. stocks slumped, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) down 2.4 percent in its biggest weekly retreat this year, after U.S. employers added fewer jobs than forecast, the American service sector slowed and euro-region unemployment rose to a 15-year high. The STOXX Europe 600 (SXXP) declined 2.4 percent in the period.
…

BTW, RMS, my wife isn’t interested in any deck at all.

In reply to posts addressing me yesterday:
We are aware of what our target home level should cost. In 2002 the sale price was $275K. They’re listing for $125K or higher right now. We are paying multiple rents on 1/6th the income of our high earring years. We’re paying cash because of our situation and Glaucoma.

We have less time in front of us, then behind us. Plus our quality of life sucks. Rock meet hard place.

Corporate America getting closer and closer to that slave labor ideal they work toward

While unpaid postcollege internships have long existed in the film and nonprofit worlds, they have recently spread to fashion houses, book and magazine publishers, marketing companies, public relations firms, art galleries, talent agencies — even to some law firms.

Melissa Reyes, who graduated from Marist College with a degree in fashion merchandising last May, applied for a dozen jobs to no avail. She was thrilled, however, to land an internship with the Diane von Furstenberg fashion house in Manhattan. “They talked about what an excellent, educational internship program this would be,” she said.

But Ms. Reyes soon soured on the experience. She often worked 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., five days a week. “They had me running out to buy them lunch,” she said. “They had me cleaning out the closets, emptying out the past season’s items.”

Although many internships provide valuable experience, some unpaid interns complain that they do menial work and learn little, raising questions about whether these positions violate federal rules governing such programs.

Yet interns say they often have no good alternatives. As Friday’s jobs report showed, job growth is weak, and the unemployment rate for 20- to 24-year-olds was 13.2 percent in April.

The Labor Department says that if employers do not want to pay their interns, the internships must resemble vocational education, the interns must work under close supervision, their work cannot be used as a substitute for regular employees and their work cannot be of immediate benefit to the employer.

But in practice, there is little to stop employers from exploiting interns. The Labor Department rarely cracks down on offenders, saying that it has limited resources and that unpaid interns are loath to file complaints for fear of jeopardizing any future job search.

nytimes.com/2012/05/06/business/unpaid-internships-dont-always-deliver.html?_r=1&hpw

Mortgage rates hit record low

By Kimberly Miller Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Posted: 5:45 a.m. Friday, May 4, 2012

Mortgage interest rates fell to record lows this week, but the news was met with lukewarm enthusiasm in Palm Beach County, where cash buyers abound and tighter lending standards are the biggest barrier.

According to federal mortgage buyer Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed loan fell to 3.84 percent, the lowest since long-term mortgages began in the 1950s and down from the previous record of 3.87 percent in February.

For a 15-year mortgage, the rate dropped to a record 3.07 percent, down from the previous low of 3.11 percent three weeks ago.

The hope is that bargain-basement rates will spur home buying, but with rates hovering below 5 percent for the past year, a big spike in purchases is unlikely, said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst at Weiss Research in Jupiter.

“There is a general mentality that there is no end to this low rate period,” Larson said. “When you know the feds want to keep rates low, people think, ‘Why should I rush out there and buy now?’ ”

Still, home sales have stabilized in parts of South Florida, Weiss said, and real estate analysis firm Zillow declared last month that home prices here are on the rebound after hitting bottom in the latter part of 2011.

Existing single-family home purchases were up 24 percent in Palm Beach County last month compared with March, according to the Florida Realtors. Median sales prices on single-family homes were also up, increasing 6 percent to $197,000 during the same time period.

How much of that can be attributed to low interest rates, however, is unclear. Housing inventory is also down, with a supply of 6.2 months in Palm Beach County in April, compared with 13.5 months last year. The low supply and high investor interest are spurring bidding wars for some properties and increasing the urgency to buy, Realtors say.

And some homebuyers can’t take advantage of the low interest rates because it’s harder to qualify for a mortgage.

“Lenders are looking for very definite and positive signs that you are going to be able to pay and you will be diligent about paying,” said Brad Hunter, chief economist for the Royal Palm Beach-based firm MetroStudy.

That means higher credit scores, a bigger down payment and fewer black marks on your record, such as a short sale, foreclosure or bankruptcy.

“A short sale isn’t a death sentence,” Hunter said, “but it’s probably going to be three years before someone can get a mortgage again.”

Mortgage rates are lower because they tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Mixed news on the U.S. economy and Europe’s debt crisis have led investors to buy more Treasury notes, which are considered safe investments. As demand for Treasury notes increases, the yield falls.

Nationally, cheaper mortgage rates haven’t done much to boost home sales. Both new home sales and those of previously occupied homes were down in March on a national level.

Hunter said he expects interest rates to edge higher during the next three to four years, but won’t likely reach the double digits that Realtor Bill Richardson said he remembers from mid-1980s.

“Interest rates have been low for so long, people are just used to low rates,” said Richardson, past president of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches. “To anyone who wants to buy a house it’s phenomenal, but whether the rate is 3.78 or 4.25 isn’t going to make a bit of difference.”

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

Hey - it is only taxpayer money saving loyal UAW jobs.

And Obama is going praise “saving GM” between now and the elections.

Healthcare, housing, banking, college tuition and obamamotors - what do they all have in common?

Total failures from massive government regulations and massive subsidies/bailouts.

———————————-

GM, a failed investment
Philadelphia Inquirer | Sun, May. 6, 2012 | John Lott

If you invested more than $100 in a company, would you be happy if your shares were worth only $36? By anyone’s definition that investment would have been a terrible failure.

Yet, that is how the federal government’s investment in General Motors looks. The federal government has put in well over $100 billion into shoring up General Motors, but the entire company, not just what the government owns, was worth only $36 billion on Tuesday.

The money the government spent adds up quickly: $50 billion in TARP bailout funds, a special exemption waiving payment of $45.4 billion in taxes on future profits, an exemption for all product liability on cars sold before the bailout, and $360 million in stimulus funds. Other money of which it is harder to quantify GM’s share includes the $15.2 billion Cash for Clunkers program and the $7,500 tax credit for those who buy the Chevy Volt. And all those costs don’t even include the billions taken from GM’s bondholders by the Obama administration.

The accounting shows the trouble with claims that much of the TARP money is getting paid back. The Obama administration only compares the $50 billion in direct bailout funds with the price it will eventually be able to get for selling the GM stock it owns. But that assumes exempting GM from paying $45 billion in taxes and other subsidies don’t increase the stock price. By the Obama administration’s logic, if the stimulus simply gave large enough grants to all the TARP recipients, all the TARP money could be paid.

Even saving 20 percent of 400,000 comes at quite a cost, implying at least $780,000 per job. How many workers would have been willing to quit working for GM for a $400,000 severance payment?

The only real winners from the GM bailout were unions, who were protected from pay cuts, from losing their right to overtime pay after less than 40 hours per week, and from cuts in their extremely generous benefits. They only faced minor tweaks in their inefficient union work rules.

Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-05-06 08:53:50
It’s the City-Data blog for the Phoenix metro community. The moderators are very biased and I highly suspect the biggest cheerleader on that site is the one who cries to mommy moderator to do something about stopping my posts that are negative about real estate. I just want a balanced opinion on that site. My take is that there are a lot of Canadians who are buying Phoenix properties and some of them read the blog and pay attention to the cheerleading by the RE types. I just want to warn them but I’m not allowed.
——————————————————————————

Bills experience on City-Data is the same as everyone elses. City-Data is a den of lying realtors and whenever I showed their bias and exposed their misrepresentations, I’d get banned. Every time.

Never expect any truth on City-Data. EVER.

Can one of the resident experts here explain to me how a “Gold Standard” if going to be a benefit to anyone, other than the 1%ers?

Seems to me that it would be of major benefit to anyone holding gold, or big wads of cash to buy gold, while the rest of us peons get screwed at an accelerated rate.

And how can anyone who complains about government intervention and regulation ever support a Gold Standard? Imposing one sure looks like economic intervention to me.

Seems to me that if you want people to know what the “value” of anything is, you would be putting into place an accounting system that is fair and accurate, without phony/biased numbers, and let everyone decide on their own what value to place on things.

Of course, we are the country that pays $10 million a year to the Kardashians for being Kardashians.

Might this represent a glimpse of a future post-austerity American plebiscite?

ft dot com

Last updated: May 6, 2012 6:25 pm
Collapse in votes for main Greek parties
By Kerin Hope in Athens

A woman leaves a polling station in Athens after voting in Greece’s national election

Greece’s general election has seen a dramatic collapse in support for the two main parties, the centre-right New Democracy and PanHellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok), according to exit polls published shortly after voting closed, raising fears they may not be able to form a viable coalition government.

The polls suggest strong gains for Syriza, a radical leftwing party that rejects the country’s bailout programme as “barbarous” yet wants to stay in the euro, while the extreme right Golden Dawn party will enter parliament for the first time.

If as seems likely the two main pro-European Union parties are now likely to win less than 40 per cent of the vote, their leaders, Antonis Samaras and Evangelos Venizelos, may decide to press for a second election to be held within a few weeks, rather than try to govern with an overall majority of less than 20 seats.
…

Austerity is taking a heavy toll on Eurozone government stability.

Luckily the global economy is decoupled, as otherwise this news of Eurozone instability would be a big concern for the U.S. stock market going forward.

ft dot com
From WORLD 9:04pm
Hollande takes French presidency

A supporter of the French Socialist Party (PS) wears a t-shirt showing a portrait of Socialist candidate Francois Hollande

Sarkozy becomes latest victim of anti-incumbent backlash

Sarkozy pays price for being crisis president

Hollande faces daunting task

The World A Greek chorus for Hollande’s big night

I held off on my normal weekend gas tank refill hoping that Friday’s big decline in oil prices would soon show up in CostCo’s pump prices. Will report back on this tomorrow, after I stop by there. Anything under $4/gal would represent relief!

ft dot com
Last updated: May 4, 2012 9:23 pm
Crude tumbles on US recovery fears
By Emiko Terazono

It was a bad week for oil market bulls as crude sank to a three-month low on worries about economic growth in the US and Europe and the impact on consumption.

Both the Brent global benchmark and the US contract West Texas Intermediate were sold off heavily after soft US employment data, which prompted worries about economic recovery.

The weaker than expected non-farm payroll numbers came amid a backdrop of already bearish sentiment. Weak European manufacturing figures released earlier in the week showed that the contraction in the eurozone had spread to core countries, namely Germany, suggesting falls in oil consumption could spread beyond the peripheral nations.

Lawrence Eagles, an oil analyst at JPMorgan in New York, said the eurozone data represented a “good one-month leading indicator for year-on-year demand growth” adding that “directionally, the PMI is pointing to much weaker oil demand growth through May”.
…

Angelo cried, “Dem bad loans!”
Angelo cried, “Dem bad loans!”
Angelo cried, “Dem bad loans!”
“Oh, hear the word of the Fed.”

The banker connected to the Deadbeat,
The Deadbeat connected to the Wall Street,
The Wall Street just dumped em on the Main Street,
And that`s what they did with all the loans

Dem loans, dem loans, dem, bad loans
Dem loans, dem loans, dem, bad loans
Dem loans, dem loans, dem, bad loans
Dem loans gonna show up in your town
Oh, hear the word of the Fed!

Your state tax dollars at work. I wouldn’t think that if you’re not a NYer this can’t happen to you. I’m sure in most states, those unintended giant loopholes and their unintended results could never have been seen:

When it was created in 2000, the state seemed to recognize that cities like Syracuse — with critical pockets of high poverty, low unemployment and deteriorating neighborhoods — needed businesses that would help stabilize the area and create jobs. The program was designed to enliven “distressed” areas like the South Side and attract development and businesses by offering tax credits.

But it didn’t happen that way. What did occur was sad and shameful.

Many big businesses, law and accounting firms and manufacturing entities — found a way to climb through the apparently gargantuan loopholes in the law and help themselves to hefty portions of tax credits. They pretended to be “new” businesses — shirt-changing — in order to get the write-offs.

Many didn’t create any jobs or move into distressed areas. And the program’s costs rose from $30 million in 2001 to $600 million in just six years. The prestigious downtown law firm, Bond Schoeneck & King, would get more than $1.5 million annually in tax breaks.

When the state finally tried to rein in the shirt-changers, it decertified 100 manufacturing entities and 30 businesses, including the law firm. It let the manufacturers back in because they claimed hardship from losing the credits.

The 30 others — including the law firm, and only a couple of businesses that actually are located in distressed areas — sued the state, arguing that its process for deciding who would go and stay was unfair. The newly revived Empire Zone board decided Friday to keep them out, a position apparently endorsed by Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

It is still mind-boggling that that so many wealthy businesses would twist a law, and then claim benefits that should have benefited people who also desire to live in prosperous neighborhoods.

http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2012/05/saundra_smokes_promise_of_empi.html

We may never, never meet again
On on the foreclosed road of life.
Still I’ll always, always keep the memory of

The way we paid our rent;
The way we you lived for free;
The way you told the judge.
No, no, you can’t take that away from me.

The way you bought new boats;
And sailed out on the sea;
The memory of all that.
No, no, they can’t take that away from me.

The mansion that you bought;
And lived in years for free;
Then all the victim screams.
No, no, they can’t take that away from me.

We may never, never meet again
On on the Deadbeat road of life.
Still I’ll always, always keep the memory of

The way you refied twice;
Then said let`s make it three;
The way you told the judge.
No, no, they can’t take that away from me.
No, they can’t take that away from me

South Florida housing market has hit bottom, Zillow says

By Paul Owers
Sun Sentinel
Posted: 5:08 p.m. Sunday, May 6, 2012

After six years of historic price declines, South Florida’s housing market has hit bottom.

So says Zillow.com, a Seattle-based real estate website that reports home values aren’t just stable but rising in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. Prices in South Florida reached their low point at the end of 2011, according to Zillow.

Read the full article at SunSentinel.com .

4 COMMENTS

Is this a reprint from 2009? Same story. Realtors and their associated websites trying to create a new buzz in the battered housing market…truth is that prices in S. Florida are still dropping…shadow inventory of foreclosures will cause more losses…bottom is still about 2 years away! This is typical false hype…don’t buy it (again)…
Oh Jesus!
5:58 PM, 5/6/2012

I saw a real estate analyst on CNBC last week that was saying housing has returned to more “typical” returns of 5% a year.

Maybe he works for zillow.

How are you enjoying your propaganda this morning?
billy beer
6:54 PM, 5/6/2012

The bidding wars have resurfaced on the hot properties. Realtor
fran
6:57 PM, 5/6/2012

What? Not even near the bottom. Who the hell came up with this story? Zillow. The same ones that over priced homes years ago. Everyone needs to hold onto all they have left to pay the rent. Dont buy this story, it’s **** a crock.
Ha Ha
7:01 PM, 5/6/2012

Thank you bankers central bankers and politicians. Nice going

Greek neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn warned rivals and reformers Sunday that “the time for fear has come” after exit polls showed them securing their entry in parliament for the first time in nearly 40 years.

“The time for fear has come for those who betrayed this homeland,” Golden Dawn leader Nikos Michaloliakos told a news conference at an Athens hotel, flanked by menacing shaven-headed young men.

“We are coming,” the 55-year-old said as supporters threw firecrackers outside.

It looks like the oil bubble has popped. Hopefully this will take the Canadian all-cash investors in U.S. housing out of the game!

It would be awesome to see oil prices fall back to the 52-week low of $77/bl. I’m guessing that would also help Obama get reelected.

Crude Oil - Electronic (NYMEX) Jun 2012

Market closed $97.11
Change -$1.38 -1.40%
Volume 29,577
May 7, 2012, 12:43 a.m.

Previous close $ 98.49
Day low $97.51
Day high $102.72
Open: $102.59
52 week low $76.88
52 week high $110.68

How is the theory that the Asian economy is decoupled from the U.S. economy working out these days for the Goldman Sachs economist who floated it?

Asia stocks plunge
Markets suffer after Europe elections,

Asian shares get spanked after poor jobs data raise fresh concerns about the health of the U.S. economy, while European elections over the weekend add to the uncertainty.

Yawn…I almost feel like ursines should consider going back into hibernation at this point, to avoid depressing themselves over the never-ending barrage of bad news out of Europe.

Sell in May and go away, with a vengeance!

ASIA MARKETS
Updated May 6, 2012, 11:56 p.m. ET

European Elections Hit Asian Markets
By DANIEL INMAN

HONG KONG—European elections led to a flight to safety by investors in Asia, sending the euro down against the dollar and the yen Monday. That sent Japanese stocks tumbling, pushing the Nikkei down 2.8% to its lowest level since Feb. 15.

Investors were also digesting poor economic data from the U.S. late on Friday with oil falling below US$100 late last week to US$96.20 after disappointing nonfarm payroll data. Crude futures fell further on Monday on concern demand may ease as worries resurface about the European Union’s ability to solve its sovereign debt woes.
…

Kerplunk!

Hong Kong Stock Market May Extend Losing Streak

(RTTNews.com) - The Hong Kong stock market has closed lower now in back-to-back sessions, plummeting more than 220 points or 1 percent along the way. The Hang Seng Index finished just below the 21,090-point plateau, and now analysts are predicting further damage at the opening of trade on Monday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets is grim following disappointing employment data from the United States, while Eurozone private sector activity declined in April at the fastest rate since October 2011. In addition, Germany’s services sector grew less than expected in April, and the French service sector contracted. Adding to the uncertainty, Francois Hollande was crowned the new President of France beating Nicholas Sarkozy. The European and U.S. markets were down, and the Asian bourses are tipped to follow suit.

The Hang Seng finished modestly lower on Friday, led to the downside by losses from the resource stocks and properties.

For the day, the index lost 163.53 points or 0.77 percent to finish at 21,086.00 after trading between 21,061.14 and 21,170.64 on volume of 45.50 billion Hong Kong dollars.

Among the decliners, PetroChina shed 1.9 percent, while China Shenhua lost 1.5 percent, Chalco retreated 2.9 percent and SHK Properties dropped 1.8 percent.
…

I find it curious how when the U.S. labor market sneezes, global stock markets catch cold.

Strange, no?

Stockmarket and dollar slide as eurozone fears hit again
May 07, 2012 1:48PM

THE Australian share market is down more than one-and-a-half per cent as European elections spark new fears about the eurozone crisis.

The drop comes one day ahead of the Federal Budget and follows solid falls in the US and Europe on Friday.

Financial markets are worried about the outcome of this week’s Greek election, the election results of the French presidency which might threaten progress in the eurozone debt crisis, and weak US jobs data.

Australian stocks were more than 1.5 per cent lower at noon following losses on Wall Street and falls for the mining giants.

Almost $20 billion was wiped from local shares in morning trade.

At 12.00 (AEST) today, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 72.1 points, or 1.64 per cent, at 4323.9 points, while the broader All Ordinaries index had fallen 74.5 points, or 1.67 per cent, to 4384.9 points.

On the ASX 24, the June share price index futures contract was 74 points lower at 4317 points, with 20,170 contracts traded.

RBS Morgans private client adviser Bill Bishop said the local market was lower due to falls on Wall Street caused by lower than expected US job figures.

“They got 60,000 to 70,000 jobs lower than expected which caused Wall Street to go down and America sets the tone for the rest of us,” he said.

“In the local market the banks have taken a mild knock and resources have taken a big fat knock.”
…

The explanation of how a shrinking U.S. labor force explains the falling unemployment rate has made its way all the way around the world.

May 4, 2012
More Consolidation Called For Singapore Stock Market

(RTTNews.com) - The Singapore stock market has closed lower now in consecutive trading days, falling more than 15 points or 0.5 percent in that span. The Straits Times Index finished just above the 2,990-point plateau, and now analysts are forecasting continued selling pressure at the opening of trade on Monday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets is grim following disappointing employment data from the United States, while Eurozone private sector activity declined in April at the fastest rate since October 2011. In addition, Germany’s services sector grew less than expected in April, and the French service sector contracted. Adding to the uncertainty, Francois Hollande was crowned the new President of France beating Nicholas Sarkozy. The European and U.S. markets were down, and the Asian bourses are tipped to follow suit.

The STI finished modestly lower on Friday, nudged into the red by losses from the financial sector.

For the day, the index shed 10.35 points or 0.34 percent to finish at 2,990.59 after trading between 2,987.99 and 2,998.48 on volume of 2.47 billion shares. There were 238 decliners and 132 gainers.

Among the decliners, Ascendas REIT dropped 3.83 percent, while UOB shed 1.61 percent and DBS Group Holdings eased 0.21 percent.

The lead from Wall Street is negative as stocks moved sharply lower on Friday as disappointing jobs data generating broad based selling pressure as the Labor Department reported much weaker than expected job growth in April.

Employment increased by 115,000 jobs in April compared to expectations for an increase of about 165,000 jobs. While the Labor Department also said that the unemployment rate edged down to 8.1 percent in April from 8.2 percent in March, the drop was largely due to a decrease in the size of the labor force.
…

Stock Trading Is Still Falling After ’08 Crisis

The New York Stock Exchange. Investors have pulled away from stocks and instead are favoring bonds, despite low interest rates.
By NATHANIEL POPPER
Published: May 6, 2012

Even though American stocks have doubled in price in the last three years, investors and traders large and small keep giving the market the cold shoulder.

Trading in the United States stock market has not only failed to recover since the 2008 financial crisis, it has continued to fall. In April, the average daily trades in American stocks on all exchanges stood at nearly half of its peak in 2008: 6.5 billion compared with 12.1 billion, according to Credit Suisse Trading Strategy.

The decline stands in marked contrast to past economic recoveries, when Americans regained their taste for stock trading within two years of economic shocks in 1987 and 2001.

This time around, the stock market has many more players, including high-speed trading firms, which have recently come to account for over half of all stock market activity. But even they, like all other major groups, have recently been doing less overall trading.

“When you keep in mind recent history, this is kind of uncharted territory,” said Justin Schack, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities.

Many market experts say the biggest reason for the shrinking volume is that traders and investors remain leery that the economy will suddenly turn on them in the wake of the financial crisis, the wild swings in stock prices and the European debt troubles.

Investors and financial industry professionals are struggling to understand what the decline could mean, particularly if it continues. Less rapid trading by short-term speculators could be a good thing for buy-and-hold investors tired of being burned by the market. But the decline could also signal a broader turn away from the domestic stock market by investors who want to hold less of their nest eggs in stocks and by companies that opt for raising capital in bond markets instead of issuing shares.

“My expectation was that we would see people go back to the stock market,” said Charles Rotblut, a vice president of the American Association of Individual Investors. “It remains to be seen whether there will be a core group of people that is just turned off of the stock markets altogether.”
…

Ron Paul wins 21 of Maine’s 24 Republican delegate spots
Mitt Romney won a straw poll there in February, but selections for the national convention are made at a state party meeting.
Associated Press
May 6, 2012, 6:51 p.m.

AUGUSTA, Maine — With Mitt Romney’s Republican presidential nomination all but certain, Ron Paul supporters took control of the Maine Republican Convention and elected a majority slate supporting the Texas congressman, party officials said Sunday.

At the two-day state convention, Paul supporters won 21 of the 24 delegate spots to the GOP national convention in Tampa, Fla. They also won a majority of the state committee seats.

“It’s certainly a significant victory,” said Jim Azzola of South Portland, Paul’s Cumberland County coordinator.
…

Would now be a good time to buy the dip in Eurozone stock prices?

Europe Factors to Watch-Shares set to sink after French, Greek votes
Mon May 7, 2012 1:27am EDT

PARIS, May 6 (Reuters) - Financial spreadbetters expect Europe’s main stock
indexes to sink on Monday, adding to the previous session’s sell-off as election
results in Greece and France sparked worries over public support for austerity
measures seen by most investors as key to fixing the euro zone’s debt crisis.

Spreadbetters expect Frankfurt’s DAX to open 151-152 points lower,
or down 2.3 percent, and Paris’ CAC 40 to open 60-65 points lower, or
down 2.1 percent.

The market reaction will be exaggerated by a public holiday in Britain.

Japan’s Nikkei average was down 2.6 percent, catching up with a
sell-off on Friday on Wall Street and in Europe triggered by lower-than-expected
U.S. monthly jobs data, and after elections in France and Greece raised concerns on whether euro zone economies will continue to pursue austerity measures.

Greek voters shrugged off the risk of a euro zone exit and punished their
ruling parties, which failed to win enough votes to form a ruling coalition in
Sunday’s election. With about 95 percent of the vote counted, conservative New
Democracy and Socialist PASOK, who have dominated Greece for decades and are the
only two major parties supporting an EU/IMF bailout program that keeps Greece
afloat, won less than 33 percent of ballots and only 150 out of 300 parliament
seats.

“It’s an anti-Merkel vote. People across Europe are fed up with tough
austerity measures imposed by German policymakers, and this could be a turning
point,” said Riccardo Designori, financial analyst at Brown Editore, in Milan.

France also elected a new president on Sunday, Francois Hollande, a
Socialist who has pressed for an end to German-led austerity policies.

“The bigger story here is that this shows that politics is getting out of
control in Europe, the gap between politicians and voters is widening, that’s
what you see in Greece, that’s what you see in France,” said Steen Jakobsen,
chief economist at Saxo Bank, in Copenhagen.

“Clearly, voters across Europe have started to send the message: ‘we are not
ready to do the reforms’, and that’s worrying. We are on the brink of a major crisis in Europe, economically and socially.”
…

Is it a safe guess that the headline U.S. indexes will do mysteriously well tomorrow, for some arcane reason which is entirely disconnected from the Eurozone situation? I’m thinking it may be eager anticipation over the upcoming Facebook (”FB”) IPO that drives up U.S. shares…