May 9, 2012

It’s Like 2005 All Over Again

Fox 12 reports from Colorado. “According to the Pikes Peak Realtor Services Corporation 784 homes were sold in Colorado Springs last month. That is a nearly five percent increase from last year. ‘Now is a great time to buy, you’ve got the high 3’s on the rate, you still have good prices,’ said Joe Clement, Broker/Owner of RE/MAX properties. ‘The thing that’s happening though is the inventory is going down, so the selection is depleting, and what that means then is that the prices are gonna start going up. I think if there ever was a time, get out there now buyers because it’s gonna start going the other direction, and you may miss an opportunity.’”

The Aspen Times in Colorado. “Calling the move a ‘giant step’ toward enhancing the character of Aspen’s neighborhoods, directors of the Aspen Board of Realtors voted unanimously to ask its members to remove all outdoor signs advertising residential properties and services by June 15. Some members argued that numerous ‘for sale’ signs in a single area send the wrong message of a city that has an oversupply or a depressed market.”

The Summit Daily News in Colorado. “Marc Hogan of BHH Partners in Breckenridge is seeing an uptick in activity at his planning and architecture company — in remodels, and some new construction. Which is good, because business had been ‘pretty rough’ since the downturn, forcing the company to cut half its staff. ‘It’s a great time to build because everything’s still on sale,’ Hogan said.”

“‘The general consensus is that building is up this year, but I think if you look at the nature of the business, a lot of it is production homes (like the Valley Brook development),” said Craig Campbell, general contractor at J&E Development in Breckenridge. The custom home market still seems to be lagging a little, he said. Now, it’s all people who pay in cash. The shift is a dramatic one considering that before, nearly all of his clients had a bank loan. ‘From my perspective, the availability of financing is an issue,’ Campbell said. ‘Over the last three years, I have not had one bank-loan customer.’”

CBS Denver in Colorado. “A family that had been living inside a million dollar home with lavish furnishings has been evicted by the Douglas County Sheriff’s department following a court order. Their action appears to be a part of a scheme involving the occupation of many homes under foreclosure in Colorado, uncovered by CBS4 Investigator Rick Sallinger.”

“In the most recent case, homeowner Joyce Carroll became ill and went into the hospital. Carroll’s home in the Bell Mountain Ranch subdivision near Castle Rock was put on the market for a short sale, then sold in foreclosure to a bank. When Carroll was released from the hospital she found strangers living in her house, who claim they have the right to move into empty homes under foreclosure.”

“In March, CBS4 was at the home when Sergio Hernandez, the man who moved his family into Carroll’s home, was served with the eviction order. Deputies knocked on the door, but initially no one answered. But when a locksmith started to drill the lock, a woman appeared opening the door. A parade of movers then started hauling all the contents out of the house, straight to the curb. Pulling up in a late model Jaguar with Colorado plates, CBS4 spoke with Hernandez as he rushed up the driveway. ‘The bank doesn’t own it.’ Hernandez said, ‘It has to prove it.’”

“The eviction scene in Castle Rock may be about to play out near Larkspur as well. A person believed to be related to Hernandez, Gonzolo Perez, has also been arrested and charged in connection with occupying a home under foreclosure. Sallinger caught up with Perez in court and asked him why he feels he has the right to be in the house. Perez said, ‘Which part don’t you understand, homeboy? Get the (expletive) away from me!’”

“The housing crisis upended many lives. Including a life of luxury enjoyed by Joyce Carroll, who deputies say had $80,000 in fine furniture and other items inside the home. Items that ended up on the curb.”

AZFamily in Arizona. “The housing inventory is low in Arizona, which means houses aren’t on the market for very long, sometimes a matter of hours. Oftentimes, people are making offers on properties, sight unseen. Real-estate agent Marge Peck sat down with 3TV’s Kaley O’Kelley to talk about bidding wars from both sides of the transaction. Buyers: How to win a bidding war. 2. Be prepared to make an offer (Have cash ready to go). 3. Don’t offer below the list price.”

Phoenix Business Journal in Arizona. “Real estate investors and short-term flippers are back in town — for better or worse — and once again they’re dominating the housing market for sales of less than $250,000. Investors are buying those homes with cash, which is pushing up prices in the long-downtrodden local market, tightening inventories and squeezing out traditional home buyers.’

“‘It’s very much like 2005 all over again at the entry-level segment,’said Justin Lombard, owner of Stone House Realty of Arizona in Phoenix.”

KSL in Utah. “Residents of an upscale Southern Utah subdivision are upset over the pitch of roofs on some of the new homes being built there. Homeowners in the Quail Cove subdivision have been frustrated since learning the developer has opened four lots to families who have received a federally subsidized loan to build homes in their neighborhood.”

“Kent Sundberg, the principal broker at St. George Homes said due to the weakness of the market, many of the subdivision’s current homeowners purchased short sales or foreclosed homes at prices lower than the market value. Now, contractors cannot build the same home for similar prices. ‘I haven’t seen this before,’ he said. ‘It’s interesting because people become proprietary. They are very defensive of their castle that they built. It’s also a function of the market, because, unfortunately, we’ve gone through a period of everyone buying homes that were short sales, or foreclosures … you can’t build the same house you’ve got, or the contractor is going to take a $40,000-$50,000 hit.’”

“‘Our concern has all along been the fact that the homes being built were not consistent with the CCNRs that were in place when we purchased our homes,’ said homeowner Ward Gubler. ‘I think there’s a pride of ownership that goes with anyone who owns a nice home,’ he continued. ‘You try to make it nice and keep it nice, and that adds to home value. So it’s an equity issue.’”

“Sundberg said the issue has blown up because of media attention, but that he thinks it is really all about communication. ‘A lot of the publicity for this has been erroneous,’ he said. ‘These are really nice people. They’re just concerned and don’t want their values to diminish any more than they already have.’”

The Reno News & Review in Nevada. “According to city of Reno statistics, Reno grew 34.5 percent between 1990 and 2000. It grew a further 21.7 percent between 2000 and 2009. Positively bubblicious. Now, according to a 2010 estimate from the state demographer, Nevada lost about 2.6 percent of its population in 2010, with more losses in 2011 and continued shrinkage likely until at least 2013. Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the United States, and the state is a leader in the nation for foreclosures. Nobody, it seems, came through the housing crunch in worse condition than us.”

“I recently returned to Reno after spending two years abroad. My sister and I drove by Sierra Marketplace shopping center on the corner of Moana and Virginia. Empty storefront after empty storefront created the illusion of wide eyes, unseeing glass facades broken only by “Prime Property Available” signs. Where there had been grocery stores, launderers and clock repairmen, the large shopping center is now just five or six businesses away from total abandonment. ‘God, Reno looks empty,’ I said. ‘It kind of is,’ responded my sister.”

“As recently as 2007, the average house sold at around $340,000, this in a county where the average household annual income was only $47,856. Now the average home goes for just over $150,000. Mike Inskeep lives on a 10-acre plot in the far northern reaches of Red Rock, a few miles east of the California border. It was not long ago the average home in this area commanded $350,000. ‘In Rancho Haven, some of the properties have recently been going for around $40,000 at auction,’ Inskeep said. ‘Some people lost their jobs, went to the bank to refinance and got told no. I know several people who’ve just walked away.’”

“Neal Cobb has served on just about every historical society in Reno’s history. He says that Reno was similar to boomtowns like Virginia City, Goldfield and Pioche. ‘Look at how many people from foreign countries ended up being 49ers,’ Cobb said. ‘It’s the same thing now. It was devastating. We overbuilt. Years back when you had people who could afford to buy houses they were in the trades. The developers were much more conservative during earlier builds you were making it possible for people who couldn’t afford it to buy houses. Anytime there’s a boom there’s also a bust.’”




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41 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-05-09 06:38:08

‘The thing that’s happening though is the inventory is going down…what that means then is that the prices are gonna start going up’

‘Oftentimes, people are making offers on properties, sight unseen’

Here’s what’s not like 2005: the federal govt is basically the largest single owner of houses in the US, via the GSE’s. The federal govt is not enforcing FDIC rules to force lenders to liquidate foreclosures. The federal govt is backing 90% + of the current house loans.

What is like 2005? The federal govt, through the central bank, is making the same mistake with low interest rates that played a huge role in these bubbles.

I asked a while back; what if we had a magic button, that if pushed, would bring all the 2005 prices back. Every penny, in every corner of the world. Would you push it, even knowing all the pain the bubble has caused? Would a politician? An FB? A used house salesman?

This is for you guys in DC, in the Federal Reserve; if you leave an option for that button to be pushed, someone will do it. And the blame for what happens will be on you.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-05-09 07:00:03

“Here’s what’s not like 2005: the federal govt is basically the largest single owner of houses in the US, via the GSE’s. The federal govt is not enforcing FDIC rules to force lenders to liquidate foreclosures. The federal govt is backing 90% + of the current house loans.”

Would this policy potentially change under a Romney presidency?

I have no idea; the son of the former HUD Secretary (under Richard Nixon) is largely silent on housing issues.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-05-09 07:14:49

Say Something Already! Obama & Romney’s Housing Crisis
Column by ADAM LEVIN
April 28, 2012

President Obama, Governor Romney and their backers may be spending hundreds of millions of dollars to live in the most expensive and exclusive house in the nation, but they aren’t saying enough about the fact that housing in America is broken. Despite what the media and candidates might have you believe, real estate, home ownership and mortgages are the most important issues of the coming presidential election. No one, however, is really talking about how it broke, who is responsible or what should be done with them. Worst of all, they’re not talking about how to fix it. Really fix it.

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-05-09 07:39:49

‘Do we need a complete overhaul of the way home lending in America works, or just better enforcement of the laws that exist? Is securitization a flawed strategy? Is it time to redefine the American dream of home ownership that results in fewer dreamers getting homes?’

Well Adam, welcome to the discussion we’ve focused on for 5 years. But I’d say having the federal govt take over house lending was a ‘complete overhaul,’ and it’s been a disaster IMO.

‘More than 1 million Americans who have taken out mortgages in the past two years now owe more on their loans than their homes are worth, and Federal Housing Administration loans that require only a tiny down payment are partly to blame. That figure represents about one out of 10 home loans made during that period.’

‘It is a sobering indication the U.S. housing market remains deeply troubled, with home values still falling in many parts of the country, and raises the question of whether low-down payment loans backed by the FHA are putting another generation of buyers at risk.’

It’s not just FHA, let’s see here:

‘U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan has a message for struggling homeowners in Nevada: Help is available.’

‘The housing market is on in the midst of a sustainable recovery, Donovan said, but it will still take at least another year or two before a full return to normal. He said the housing recovery still could be threatened, especially if those advocating the elimination of federally backed lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are successful in their quest.’

We’re just gonna keep these bankrupt zombies alive indefinitely? Churning out FB’s by the millions? That’s possibly the stupidest policy ever. I’m not saying these politicians and bureaucrats have to listen to me. What I am saying is, if I’m right about this stuff, it’s gonna to further the disaster.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-05-09 07:42:55

“Well Adam, welcome to the discussion we’ve focused on for 5 years. But I’d say having the federal govt take over house lending was a ‘complete overhaul,’ and it’s been a disaster IMO.”

Where are the Republicans on this? Were they so complicit in the ‘overhaul’ that they offer no comment on whether it worked?

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2012-05-09 07:53:29

After 4 or 5 years of after-the-fact finger pointing, I’d rather see a discussion of what we do now. We can always debate which cheek of the hairy ass is uglier when we’re done.

Has time really wiped away what this has done? What’s at stake here?

‘Empty storefront after empty storefront created the illusion of wide eyes, unseeing glass facades broken only by “Prime Property Available” signs. Where there had been grocery stores, launderers and clock repairmen, the large shopping center is now just five or six businesses away from total abandonment.’

 
Comment by Awaiting
2012-05-09 09:10:28

Ben,
You hit a nerve with me. Thank you. Having been through the Int’l Council Of Shopping Ctr Management School, I am very concerned about this sector of the REIC. Way too many centers were built, and the tenant focus is way out of whack. I’m looking for a position with smaller strip center and grocery anchor center management/development firms. I believe the regional mall owners are going to be hurt’in bad. Just look at the demographics for their tenants.

I was even thinking of switching to section 42 elderly multi-family unit REITs. Section 8 companies only hire certain types of managers and regional managers, and quite frankly, I cannot lower my morals that low. I like B2B.

 
Comment by Realtors Are Swindlers®
2012-05-09 11:35:23

Snap out of it GS. This notion that either party is different must die and die soon. These guys can and DO pander and say whatever they want. They take their orders from banks, public and private. Banking elite(FedRes) put them in office and will take them out of office. Congress is a whorehouse where the whores take whatever bid comes through the door. RePukes have been threatening for decades and Dumbo’s have been promising moon dust, neither do anything other than bend over for the highest bid. Party elite from both sides have been pimping the extremes.

I admit that up until recently, we *needed* policy that is counter-intuitive to “prevent disaster”. It’s BS.

 
Comment by Realtors Are Swindlers®
2012-05-09 11:52:11

Correction on that last sentence….. For years I believed the lie that we needed bad public policy to prevent _______.

 
Comment by Steve J
2012-05-09 12:24:53

Malls are dying. No one has time to spend all day shopping any more. The “shop till you drop” crowd has done dropped.

 
Comment by Muggy
2012-05-09 17:20:28

“we can always debate which cheek of the hairy ass is uglier when we’re done.”

LOL

( I )

 
Comment by Robin
2012-05-09 17:21:24

Come to any mall in Orange County, CA and try to find a parking spot. Really!

 
 
Comment by Montana
2012-05-09 08:40:28

Well in a way, not talking about it makes me suspect Romney is not going to pander by promising “relief.” Because that’s really the only thing the dopes want to hear. He already said in Nevada that the market needed to clear before it could get better…of all places to say that! But he’s probably trimmed his sails since then.

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Comment by Neuromance
2012-05-09 11:15:12

To understand what a politician is going to do, you don’t listen to his words. You look at who his paymasters are.

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-05-09 08:37:53

Cheap money is too popular for the masses.

As I mentioned before from a former GSE executive…if there was a politician who opposed the GSE’s involvement in the market, the GSE opened a local lending office in their district, and then the photo ops followed with said politician and Mr. and Mrs. Sixpack after they were proud owners of a new mortgage and home.

No more opposition from that politician.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-05-09 23:19:45

There is this…

Rep. Frank: Romney ‘mindless’ to suggest eliminating HUD
By Mike Lillis - 05/09/12 04:07 PM ET

Mitt Romney’s suggestion to scrap the Housing and Urban Development Department (HUD) is an irrational proposition that would lead to a spike in national poverty and homelessness, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) charged this week.

Romney, the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee, hinted last month that he would eliminate HUD, among other federal agencies, if he were to win the White House in November.

But Frank, the top Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee, which has jurisdiction over HUD programs, warned Wednesday that such a move would cause “a significant increase in poverty, a massive increase in homelessness and a deterioration of cities.”

“It’s not a rational policy,” Frank said. “It’s mindlessness.”

Appearing at a closed-door fundraiser last month in Florida, Romney, whose father headed HUD for four years under former President Nixon, suggested the agency might not survive if he becomes president.

“I’m going to take a lot of departments in Washington, and agencies, and combine them – some eliminate – but I’m probably not going to lay out just exactly which ones are going to go,” Romney said, according to reporters who overheard the private discussion.

“Things like Housing and Urban Development, which my dad was head of, that might not be around later,” he added. “But I’m not going to actually go through these one by one. What I can tell you is, we’ve got far too many bureaucrats. I will send a lot of what happens in Washington back to the states.”

 
 
Comment by steadykat
2012-05-09 16:18:43

IMHO: SoUtah is over with the growth. We actually had a negative number posted for growth last year.

The builders and Developers are scrambling for crumbs now, locally.

Hey Ben, long time.

I’ve been busy locally over the last few years fighting TPTB in relation to development in this County and in the Town that I live in.

We’ve been winning and I’ve got one BIG developer left and I think that we are going to beat them too.

Here’s the info:
http://www.getinvolvedleeds.org/

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2012-05-09 06:39:25

One thing that is different this time:

I can’t recall that the Greek economy was on the brink of leaving the Eurozone back in 2005. Or that Wall Street traders even had Eurozone issues on their radar screens, for that matter.

I suppose the implications for the U.S. housing market depend upon whether all real estate is still local these days. With the recent influx of Canadian and Chinese investors snapping up foreclosure deals, my impression is that it is not.

Index Futures:
S&P 500 1,345.75 -12.75 -0.94%
DOW 12,770 -97.00 -0.75%
NASDAQ 2,599 -24.00 -0.92%

Europe risks color Wall St.

Major correction unlikely

Catalyst for higher stocks is no catalyst

Stocks are set to come under heavy selling pressure right from the opening bell.
Europe stocks turn lower on Spain jitters
Asia shares stumble amid Greece turmoil

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-05-09 21:16:40

Yawn…

World stocks fall, bonds gain on Greek fears
Investors hedge against losses as Europe fears resurface
Wed, May 9 2012

Traders from Interactive Investor look at their computer screens in their office in Glasgow, Scotland May 8, 2012. REUTERS/David Moir

By Herbert Lash

NEW YORK | Wed May 9, 2012 5:15pm EDT

(Reuters) - Global shares slid for a sixth day while safe-haven U.S. and German government debt rose on Wednesday as rising fears about the fragility of Spanish banks and a political impasse in Greece worsened fears about the euro zone debt crisis.

The concerns over Europe added to those of U.S. and global economies turning softer. Oil prices and the Dow Jones industrial average fell for a sixth straight session. The slide in equity markets nearly wiped out this year’s gains for European shares.

The festering debt crisis prompted investors to favor the dollar and seek safety in government debt. Gold touched a four-month low that all but erased its gains for 2012, while the euro fell for an eighth straight session to a 3 1/2-month low.

The Nasdaq briefly turned positive, the S&P rose to break-even and U.S. Treasuries trimmed gains on speculation Greece would get money from a euro zone bailout fund. But stocks retreated after the board of the European Financial Stability Facility agreed to a scheduled 5.2 billion euro payment.

The CBOE Volatility index .VIX, Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, rose 5.4 percent to 20.08.

“It’s a very difficult market to trade in. I’m advising my clients to just hedge out all the way into July because we are going to see some heightened volatility like today for awhile,” said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI closed down 97.03 points, or 0.75 percent, at 12,835.06. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX fell 9.14 points, or 0.67 percent, at 1,354.58. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC slipped 11.56 points, or 0.39 percent, at 2,934.71.

In Europe, investors retreated from riskier euro zone bonds, driving Spanish yields above 6 percent, on worries over how Spain’s banks would meet government demands for a hefty recapitalization.

Spain will demand banks set aside another 35 billion euros ($45 billion) against loans to the ailing building sector, financial sources said. Huge bank losses have raised fears that the country may need an international bailout.

The FTSE Eurofirst .FTEU3 index of top European shares closed down 0.3 percent at 1,014.46 points. The index had been more than 1 percent lower earlier in the session.

MSCI’s all-country world equity index .MIWD00000PUS fell 0.9 percent to 314.93, its sixth loss in a row to near lows last seen in February.

The euro zone worries hit the primary market for corporate debt, after $11.9 billion in new investment-grade issuance was priced Monday and Tuesday. The lull, not that unusual, was due to the widening spread of recent deals, which sidelined potential issuers, according to IFR.

Bond prices also pared early gains after the 10-year Bund future in Germany hit an all-time high and the 10-year yield fell as low as 1.498 percent. The safe-haven buying briefly pushed yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note below 1.8 percent, a key resistance level.

Bonds later pared gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 3/32 in price to yield 1.83 percent.

“If you look at the uncertainty that is mounting in Europe and the way things are going with our own economy, there is a potential turn that could be very negative” for the global economy, said William Larkin, fixed income portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Massachusetts.

 
 
Comment by combotechie
2012-05-09 06:42:54

“The thing that is happening, though, is that inventory is going down, so the selection is depleting, and what that means then is that prices are gonna to start going up.”

In 2005 people desperately wanted in and would pay up to get in, and those who were already in didn’t want to get out unless they had another house (or several houses) to get into. In 2005 buying a house was considered by many to be buying a never-ending money generating machine.

Now, in 2012, people who are in want out, but - because they are underwater - they can’t get out without bringing money to the table. And the only way to not be forced to bring money to the table is to wait until prices rise - and it is then that they will put their house on the market.

And this means the furthur prices rise the greater the number of houses that will be put on the market to be sold.

The dynamic that ruled in 2005 is far different than the dynamic that rules today.

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-05-09 06:53:07

‘I think a lot of those people are trying to encourage sales by getting leery buyers off of the fence. Who wouldn’t want to believe the economy is finally improving? Unfortunately, in my opinion, there’s a very important piece of data that’s being overlooked and is changing the market in incredible ways. Our notice of defaults (NODs), the first step in the foreclosure process, came to a near-complete stop at the end of 2011.’

‘There was a new Nevada state law, AB 284, that went into effect Oct. 1, 2011. The new law requires banks to come up with specific documentation in order to foreclose on a property. Our NODs had previously been ranging between 500 and 700 on average, per month, in Washoe County (northern Nevada) alone.’

‘It’s possible there are 3,000 homes, maybe more (based upon prior figures, six months’ inventory at 500 homes a month), that have been postponed from the foreclosure process moving forward under the law. Keep in mind this figure is for only one county in the state of Nevada: Washoe County.’

‘To put the numbers into perspective, it’s best to know the real figures. There are approximately 5,000 homes on the MLS listed as ‘active’ on the market today.’

‘With Nevada being a top state for foreclosures, just Nevada’s change in figures may be painting a rosier picture for the national economy and its claimed recovery. I’m not convinced.’

Kristin Havelka
Realtor, broker, agent
Krch Realty
Sparks, Nev.

‘The squeal of circular saws and thump of nailguns on long planks of wood creates a symphony of sound unheard in Fort Collins for about a half decade. For new homebuyers, it’s the sound of a dream fulfilled. For builders, it’s the welcome sound of their livelihood coming back.’

‘In some cases, permits are on pace to match or surpass 2007-08 levels, the most recent decent year for contractors in Fort Collins. It seems like there’s a possibility to make a living again as a builder in Fort Collins,’ builder Dana McBride said. However, numbers aren’t back to where they were in the booming ’90s. And ‘for a guy who lived through the ’90s when we couldn’t build them fast enough … I wouldn’t say the market is back,’ McBride said.’

‘McBride is finishing three homes in Old Town North off North College Avenue, and two of the three have sold. He also is building in Rigden Farms off Timberline Road. ‘I’m ready to go to the bank and ask for more money to build more spec homes,’ he said.’

Comment by azdude
2012-05-09 07:02:38

smell of desperation in the air. the economy is the US is stocks and housing.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-05-09 07:40:03

Stocks are dropping as I type, in response to the Eurozone crisis.

I don’t guess there is any chance there will be any spillover into housing, though. (If anyone wants to suggest reasons my second statement might be wrong, I would be interested…)

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Comment by JQ
2012-05-09 22:32:26

I think you will definitely see some spillover into housing. Our Federal Reserve is basing their actions on reviving “animal spirits.” Their current policy is based on it pure and simple.
The problem with such a policy is that it doesn’t take much to scare the herd. Hence, Bernanke’s comments regarding our economy being susceptible to “shocks”… We’re in for one hell of a ride…

 
 
 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2012-05-09 18:18:17

Nevada is not kicking the foreclosure can down the road, they’ve actually punted it into the next state. AB 284 has completely stopped foreclosures because the banks face felony charges if they don’t have their ducks in a row. So, they’ve decided for the most part to quit foreclosing period.

Imagine a state such as Nevada going from the highest in the nation in foreclosures to the lowest. That’s what’s happening. The backlog of foreclosures is absolutely MASSIVE. Considering the fact that builders are now building again to make up for the “lack of inventory,” I expect that prices in the longer term are going to get absolutely hammered as a result.

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-05-09 18:59:36

‘Imagine a state such as Nevada going from the highest in the nation in foreclosures to the lowest.’

Well, we’ve certainly got a test case to see if this stuff works. Florida did a similar u turn. I’m betting they’ll wish they had never done it eventually.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2012-05-09 21:27:01

I think you’re right, I saw another list of markets that are doing well…again, most of them seem to be in FL. Once more of their 22% non-current loans start moving through the pipeline, watch out. I think all these “improvements” in FL housing markets is a massive head fake.

Phoenix’s apparent housing market improvement could be the real deal…their non-current loan rate is at~9%, and falling by 0.5% per month.

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-05-09 21:24:10

And I heard yesterday that it is possible that AB 284 won’t be changed in any meaningful way for perhaps 2 years…apparently the state legislature only meets once every two years, and for only 120 days even then.

With the supply of distressed sales rapidly falling, I am now hearing from people in the Reno market that new homes are selling very well. Time will tell whether banks can ramp back up the foreclosures with this law in place, and if the ramp up will be sufficient to slow things down again.

Otherwise, all bets are off (no pun intended) until the legislature meets in a couple of years.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-05-09 07:36:56

“And this means the further prices rise the greater the number of houses that will be put on the market to be sold.”

That’s how a market free from top-down inventory manipulation works.

Comment by Rental Watch
2012-05-09 21:40:40

What’s perverse is that for a little while, the opposite might be true, that homes rising off the bottom will make the marginal underwater borrower rethink their decision to walk away (not the guy who’s 40% underwater, but think of what the 15% underwater borrower will do if prices are up 5%). While at the same time, demand will increase with the prices beginning to rise as people decide they’ve waited long enough and have seen the bottom.

Higher prices, leading to lower supply, and higher demand…don’t laugh, I think that we have been witnessing a very odd situation indeed:

In a normal market economy: prices fall, demand increases, and supply decreases–which tends to push prices higher…a stable equilibrium.

Leveraged housing market economics, once values fell past a tipping point=prices fall, demand DECREASES (lending dries up, appraisals get more conservative, people fear losing down payment and DON’T buy), supply INCREASES (more people walking away since there are more underwater borrowers, HELOC driven borrowing/spending goes away, hurting consumption and driving job losses, etc.)–which tends to push prices even lower, creating a spiral downward…an unstable equilibrium.

The question is whether the monkey business with slowing foreclosures in FL, NV, and other states will push prices back above the “tipping point” that caused this unstable market dynamic in the first place. My bet is that we won’t go above that “tipping point” until non-current loans are much closer to normal…prices rose to high during the bubble, and there are too many underwater borrowers in these states…any market improvements will be head-fakes.

 
 
 
Comment by mikeinbend
2012-05-09 07:26:06

Local news “Smiles finally return to Central Oregon Housing Market”
(ktvz dot com). Market is on the upswing! Even though I see thru my own eyes that only the 100-150k market is running hot.

The 200k market is being pulled off for now (at least in the case of Fannie’s effort to resell wife’s ex-house; did not sell at 200k so they pulled it off the MLS) rather than risk jeopardizing the hot action at the 100k level. Just my opinion based on 1 case I know of…

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-05-09 07:38:10

If only one very large actor (Fannie) was involved in your one case, it seems safe to guess there are many other similar cases.

 
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2012-05-09 18:47:54

It’s an infestor’s market, with some poor sheeple thrown in for good measure.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2012-05-09 08:32:24

The free sh*t army on the move.

Of course, they can’t prove they own it either. Or ever paid one dime for it.

There was a time in American there was shame for taking what was not yours.

And yes - this includes the fraudster who work at the bank too.

—————–

“In March, CBS4 was at the home when Sergio Hernandez, the man who moved his family into Carroll’s home, was served with the eviction order. Deputies knocked on the door, but initially no one answered. But when a locksmith started to drill the lock, a woman appeared opening the door. A parade of movers then started hauling all the contents out of the house, straight to the curb. Pulling up in a late model Jaguar with Colorado plates, CBS4 spoke with Hernandez as he rushed up the driveway. ‘The bank doesn’t own it.’ Hernandez said, ‘It has to prove it.’”

Comment by In Colorado
2012-05-09 09:15:00

Army? That implies hordes of people squatting in foreclosed houses. The fact this story made the news implies that its unusual. Outrageous, but unusual.

I guess we don’t put up with the “free rent” nonsense here in the Centennial State, at least not the way they do in places like Floriduh.

Comment by Steve J
2012-05-09 12:27:47

There as a case like that in Dallas. It had been vacant over a year Nobody could figure out who really owned the house.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2012-05-09 08:35:35

Wow - a return almost to the norm.

Of course, in this case, it is going to undershoot it by alot.

“As recently as 2007, the average house sold at around $340,000, this in a county where the average household annual income was only $47,856.

 
Comment by mikeinbend
2012-05-09 09:16:06

Like the mysto foreclosure that we would like to know more about.

Inhabitants have been gone for 2 years; the neighbors say “they gave it back to the bank and moved to New Mexico”

Looking at county records reveals that the old owners still own it.
Folks think it “went back to the bank”. That is what the old inhabitants said. They may not even know they still own it; having flown the coop so long ago.

It is caught in limbo; with no way for a layperson to get to the bottom of it. Like, when is it going to be listed for sale? Why have foreclosure proceedings not taken place seeing how the neighbors split two years ago and quit paying before that? How much has it degraded over the years of emptiness? Why does the lender not act to minimize the delapidation occuring?

Comment by Anonymous Coward
2012-05-09 17:02:34

This issue is very interesting to me. The other day, I asked this guy named Talgat who heads up the FI research group at CFRA (a financial research group–pretty focused on quality of earnings, aggressive accounting, etc) how they analyze this issue when looking at banks. As you guys know, banks are releasing a lot of loan loss reserves, and that accounts for most or all of bank earnings lately, depending on the specific bank. But at the same time, they have these loans they are not foreclosing on. Basically he said they don’t care and they don’t track these zombie homes in any way since the banks are just servicing these loans. It’s a Fannie/Freddie or private investor issue because all of those loans have been securitzed. It’s not a balance sheet issue for the banks now that the biggest of their putback suits have been settled. I bring this up because we all know that these loans were securitized, but sometimes I forget that when I read things about banks not foreclosing or selling REO or about them releasing LLR, which at first glance may seem ludicrous. It kind of irks me, because I would prefer that they have many more years of pain, not decent earnings. I was hoping this guy would tell me something that would support my predisposition to believe the earnings are a mirage.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2012-05-10 08:27:16

but sometimes I forget that when I read things about banks not foreclosing or selling REO or about them releasing LLR, which at first glance may seem ludicrous.

In a strange ironic twist, these “delayed” loans are actually good for the banks’ balance sheets. Their servicing contracts allow them to bill non-current loans at a higher rate. So they actually have a financial incentive to drag foreclosure out.

 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2012-05-09 11:59:44

Politicians want to seem like they are responsive, listening to people’s needs, and constantly doing things to improve the situation. Quite a reasonable thing to expect from politicians.

However, the net result of government intervention in a market to make it more affordable is that it becomes less affordable.

The other net result is that politicians wind up getting donations from big companies benefiting from the new programs.

 
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