Another Form Of Equality
Readers suggested a topic on houses and retirement. “Where do people who are now leaving the Sunbelt go? In the case of retirees? Back to wherever their kids have jobs so they can see their grand-kids and be gently supervised/assisted until they can no longer take care of themselves. There is a whole subset of older women in my building who seem to be widows who have been moved into apartments by their successful kids.”
“I presume there is a similar, if less independent, version of this happening with grandma or grandpa taking over the den on the ground floor as her or his bedroom all over the country. Older people need help and they can’t get it easily from kids living a thousand miles away. And my understanding is that medical care in Florida is terrible.”
“My parents currently live in a 55+ development. They have finished the basement, so they aren’t actually living on one floor, but the kitchen, dining area, living room area, master bedroom and a large bathroom (with a shower with built in seating and no tub so there is nothing to step over) and small laundry room (off the bathroom) are all on one floor. My dad has a small office and media room downstairs (the rest is open). The guest room and a storage closet are upstairs. There is a small step up to the front door, but it could be easily ramped. The one issue I see is they have a one car garage and it is not close to wide enough to deal with a wheel chair, but there is street parking, so that could be dealt with as well. It would require rearranging the furniture (and getting rid of some of it), but they could manage in place with one of them using a walker or even a chair. All set up with grab bars and whatever.”
“Yes, these places are designed with the idea that you can stay in place with at least one person using a walker or a chair. I think they tend to assume that person has another at least slightly more mobile person to help, but there are other things you could do to make it workable for a person without help. Raising the wall plugs so they can be reached by a person in a chair is one of them.”
A reply, “I think the idea of Florida/Arizona as retirement states is done for. Why bother to move to a low tax state if you’re just going to spend saved tax money on plane trips to see the kids (or vice versa), waiting in wheelchairs at the airport? I think this is going to be the fate of McMansions. I could easily see a developer come in and retrofit a few princess suites as group homes and/or assisted living. It’s not a bad idea either. Any renovation will increase resell value. The question is, how much of the renovation cost do you get back during resell.”
To which was said, “Partly depends on the age of the caregiver and cared for. Have a 62 year old friend that took ‘early’ retirement and moved to Florida to care for aging parents. Bought a $60,000 short sale house in Tampa to be near-ish the beach and 1/2 hour away from the folks. Moving the parents back north seemed impractical as they are now “rooted” in a place they’ve been for 25+ years, have cronies in their neighborhood, and have difficulty coping with winter weather.”
And this, “I could only hope to be so lucky. Please stay home and spare us the congestion and the ideologies about how you ‘do it up north.’ Yankee go home. Yea. I don’t believe it will happen and can only HOPE for this Change.”
And another, “They are still coming to Arizona by the truckload and sucking up all of the affordable small homes that someone like me may consider buying if I had more that 30 seconds to look at it before these fargin cork soakers overbid the crap out of it.”
“I think I will start a movement to have young sunbelt professionals move back to the upper mid west and overbid the homes to keep their kids and grand kids from have the chance at affordable housing. I should probably include some busloads of starry eyed ‘rich dad’ investors to create a real frenzy. Had to release a little bitterness and hostility before my weekend.”
And finally, “Kind of another form of equality. Making homes that accommodate more than one generation of tenants or owners with different needs. Not in a wheelchair yet, but very challenged by our 1916 cast iron clawfoot tub in our 1918 Craftsman.”
“Researching walk-in tubs; they seem absurdly expensive . Any experiences would be very welcome. Pipes under the house are assumed to be from 1918. Some walk-ins have a fast-drain (assumed pump-assist). Don’t know if the pipes can handle it. How does the install affect resale value? We are currently all on one level and don’t want to change. Recommendations?”
I’ll be at the state GOP convention all day. There may be some delays in moderating, but I’ll do the best I can!
Watch out for fundamental extremists packing heat!
They just now told me I was on a list of agitators, and if I caused a problem they would kick me out. Should be an interesting day.
You and all the other Ron Paul supporters! I’m in Phoenix today and did not know. But then I already changed my registration to Libertarian. Gary Johnson won the nomination last week for the Libertarian Party candidate at the national convention. His opponent was equally worthy. Imagine freedom!
I’m on the convention floor now. Videos of the President on the big screen.
Ben. Come in, Ben. Updates! Please!
It’s a mess here. We’ve just finished the first round of district balloting at 1 PM and we were supposed to be finished with all districts by noon. At large after lunch break. I’m guessing this will last into the night.
Whoa! Does that effectively silence your voice, or give them license to throw you out in case you are not silent?
As a non-Mormon who often attends Mormon church with LDS family members, I am quite accustomed to keeping my voice silent around others with whom I disagree.
If Mitt Romney gets elected president, I suppose the whole country will get to choose between silence or the prospect of forced haircuts?
On a list of agitators huh? Because of what? Telling the truth via internet media outlet?
I’d like to know why BJ.
Apparently anyone w/any ideas different than the party leaders can stick it. Doesn’t seem very convention-like does it? At least not in a founding father’s sense.
Gheesh Ben I hope you don’t have a ‘68 Dan Rather moment. They’re probably watching what gets posted on the blog.
What does “causing a problem” refer to? Back when I was a student, the Bill Clinton campaign came to my school. He was introduced at the rally, in sequence, by several local and state politicians, plus the sitting U.S. Representative and two U.S. Senators. All invoked JFK. Finally I said, a little too loudly, “he’s dead and we need to move on with our lives.” Several people took a step away from me.
By today’s American standards, I cause a problem almost every time I open my mouth.
Huzzah for snake charmer!
OK, Paul won my congressional districts delegate. Romney got the alternate. Now we are waiting to vote for B delegates, which may be seated (AZ got it’s delegates cut and these B’s might get added in by the party or the “presumed nominee”).
I don’t know how the other districts voted yet.
They tell us lunch is canceled and on to the at large delegates.
Good to see you made it out alive, Ben. I guess there really is no free lunch?
We’re here at 7 PM. A lot of the Romney people have left and we are supposed to try a motion for another ballot on the at large delegates. It was flawed, everyone knows it, and it might be re-done. I’ve been here 12 hours now.
Thank you.
Somefing tells me the prize in Arizona’s eyes is not defeating Barack Obama.
P.S. I am leaning towards voting for Ron Paul myself, just to keep the election interesting.
Arizona Ron Paul supporters boo Romney’s son off stage
By Rebekah L. Sanders, The Arizona Republic
Updated 2h 51m ago
PHOENIX – Supporters of Ron Paul booed presidential hopeful Mitt Romney’s son off the stage Saturday at the Arizona Republican Party convention, as he sought to solidify support for his father’s nomination.
Hundreds of state GOP members were gathered at Grand Canyon University to elect delegates for the national convention in July in Tampa, Fla., which is expected to select Mitt Romney as the official Republican nominee to challenge President Obama.
“We cannot afford four more years of President Obama,” said Josh Romney, the third of Mitt Romney’s five sons. “We need someone to step in there and turn things around.”
But Josh Romney had to stop repeatedly as people booed and yelled for Paul, who has continued campaigning in the Republican primary. All other challengers, including Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, have dropped out of the race, and Romney has a commanding lead over Paul in the estimated delegate count.
But Paul supporters have begun flooding state conventions, recently winning control of delegate majorities in Nevada and Maine.
Josh Romney tried to appease the crowd, taking a minute to recognize his father’s former challengers.
“I recognize how hard it is to run for president, the sacrifice those men and women made running for president,” he said. “It’s a great contribution they’ve made to the party.”
He recapped Mitt Romney’s background of turning around failing companies, rehabilitating the Salt Lake City Olympics organization and balancing the budget as governor of Massachusetts. Josh Romney said his dad stepped up to the added challenges of taking care of the family after wife Ann was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis.
But as Josh Romney wrapped up, with an admonition to choose the preferred slate of Mitt Romney delegates, the crowd exploded with competing boos and cheers, cutting him short.
Some attendees said they heard Paul supporters chanting outside that Mitt Romney is “the white Obama.”
State party chairman Tom Morrissey begged for everyone to stay respectful.
“Maybe it’s going to take getting behind somebody we weren’t so excited about. … What I want is to save this country, and we’ve gotta do it together. None of us gets everything we want,” Morrissey said, adding, “Keep your eye on the prize: defeating Barack Obama.”
…
I was there and nobody booed him off the stage. Many of us even politely clapped for his general statements. But what the press doesn’t mention is when he started talking about ‘when my dad first realized he was going to be the nominee’ like it had already happened, yeah, he got booed by a few people in the back. He was insulting all Paul supporters at that point, and I’m not sorry a few people rained on his parade.
‘Maybe it’s going to take getting behind somebody we weren’t so excited about’
What an endorsement. ‘Ladies and gentlemen, the man we weren’t too excited about, and after all, none of us gets everything we want, the next President of these United States; Mitt Romney!!!”
May 13, 2012 10:31 PM
The men who love Mitt Romney
By John Dickerson
Topics Campaign 2012
Mitt Romney speaks at Charlotte Pipe and Foundry Company in Charlotte, N.C., Friday, May 11, 2012.
(Credit: AP Photo)
This post originally appeared on Slate.
There has been a lot of talk about Mitt Romney’s difficulty connecting with voters, but that can’t be true everywhere. Who are the voters he does connect with? I spent a morning recently in Columbus, Ohio, with small-business owners Phillip Derrow and Rick Malir. They aren’t anti-Obama zealots, but nor do they begrudgingly accept the Republican nominee. They like Mitt Romney. They praise his smarts and his experience. Most important, they feel that he gets them–what they’re going through and what they’re trying to do. Their feeling can be summed up by twisting a phrase the Obama team likes to use to describe the president’s supporters: They think Mitt Romney has their back.
In the battleground state of Ohio, the National Federation of Independent Business, a small business lobby, says 49 percent of Ohioans are employed by companies with fewer than 100 employees . Derrow and Malir are part of this demographic, and they have three obsessions: their employees, red tape, and the fear that they might lose what they’ve built.
Malir owns a string of 20 barbecue restaurants in Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky. He started the business with his wife in his garage. “When a politician stands up and says I created 40,000 jobs, now I’m just a dumb farm kid from Kansas, going really? I don’t remember that politician standing with me in my garage when I am worried to death I’m going to lose the house as I’m trying to smoke brisket. I don’t remember them standing there. If anything, they were giving me more forms to fill out.”
That is the only mildly heated thing either man says all day. Both men say they’ve “won the lottery,” as Malir puts it, by being born in the United States and having the success they’ve had. But it highlights two themes that run through our nearly two-hour conversation: They are nervous they’ll lose what they’ve got. And they think the people in charge of making health care, labor, and tax laws have no idea what people like them are trying to do–which is take risks, grow their businesses, and create jobs. “I learned recently that I’m a HENRY,” says Malir. “A High-Earner-Not-Rich-Yet. If you look at my 1040 what you’d say is, ‘that son of a buck is one rich dude!’ But what they don’t get is that because that money flows to personal income. I pour all of my profits back into the company, risking the money to create a better company and create more jobs.”
…
By the way, the designs for my parents’ development were taken directly from plans originally made for Arizona. It has caused all sorts of problems with the roofs as there was no consideration of snow and ice. I think a bunch of them have had basement leak issues, also related to the architecture not being intended for severe winter weather. My dad spent a few years as the head of the association dealing with the process of getting the builder to ameliorate as many problems as they could force him to (not many). Some of the people with incomes barely covering their mortgages (my folks bought for cash) are having real issues with the assesment increases needed to fix some of the stuff that is considered the responsibility of the association, not of the individuals.
Despite the fact that they couldn’t get the developer to fix the design problems, my dad was able to use the issues to keep the town from approving the rest of the devolpment that he had proposed. Talked up the cheif of police and head of the fire department and all that small town stuff. This was after I found the blog but before the bubble had burst hard in the Northeast. I told them that they only had to do it for a little while because once the bubble burst, he wouldn’t be able to get a construction loan. So far, there are no new houses going up behind them.
Well, have a good day folks. I’m off to make Posers mad by enjoying cheap and free entertainment in our nation’s capital.
My dad spent a few years as the head of the association dealing with the process of getting the builder to ameliorate as many problems as they could force him to (not many).
Who was approving contractor pay reqs? Don’t complicate it or broadbrush it. As that simple question.
I have no idea. Way beyond the level of detail that I would have asked. The section that exists now was already built when they bought, I believe, though I know they are the first residents of that unit - they got to pick the cabinets and color scheme.
The construction defects didn’t become obvious until they had a pretty hard winter. Might even have taken a couple of winters. The real issue as far as I am concerned is that they have almost nothing in common with the other residents - they bought a place that they could easily afford and most of the others seem to be people who were stretching to what they couldn’t handle long term if costs went up at all. Paying costs related to construction not appropriate for the climate zone is enough to really hurt a lot of the others. My parents could handle it if they needed to, but their excellent insurance has covered almost all of it anyway. They financed their big association assesment at something absurd like 2.5% (though they could have used cash if they had wanted to). People who are now underwater had to use the association to finance the assesment and are doing it at closer to 5%, maybe 6%.
cheap and free entertainment in our nation’s capital ??
Somebody’s paying for it…
Enjoy your day Polly….I understand the weather right now is quite pleasant in DC…
Have fun with my tax money, Marie!
Actually, some of it was the tax money of the people of Poland and Lithuania!
Oh please, if DC didn’t provide for a way for the people to come and enjoy all the public offerings, we’d be bitching about that too. Why don’t you take a trip there and go enjoy your tax dollars as what seems like about 1/2 of my friends did this spring?
I love DC. Take my kids regularly. We’ve been on multiple trips. This year we went to the centennial celebration of The Apple Blossom festival. Watched The Changing of the Guard at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Although packed to the gills crowded we had a great time. There’s always something different to see.
When I went in 2008 (I think), they were letting the mall go and the reflecting pond had stuff growing in it, I was deeply embarassed thinking anyone seeing it for the first time would thing this is how we were presenting ourselves. This year it was back to best foot forward. If there are exclusive clubs around the country keeping up appearances, certainly our nation’s capitol needs to do the same.
I’m glad to here the mall has been restored. I must have seen it about 10 years ago and was appalled by the horrible crab grass and weeds everyone.
“Why bother to move to a low tax state if you’re just going to spend saved tax money on plane trips to see the kids”
Let me say this ten times over for those of you considering “low tax” Florida.
The following will annihilate you:
1. Electric (not cheap)
2. Car insurance (plan on paying double what you pay now, unless you’re coming from NYC/ L.I.)
3. Windstorm coverage. This will make the TI down here the same or more as the TI “up there.” This is the biggest swindle in Florida.
4. Food. It’s lower in quality and more expensive.
5. Health care. I hope you like grime.
6. Little-to-no infrastructure… Trying to get granny around Pinellas County using public transit = FAIL.
I am comparing the St. Pete area to Rochester, NY. I understand Rochester has high property taxes, but you get a return for that. Down here? It’s hot, and while you’re at work someone from the FSA will help themselves to your IKEA furniture.
My parents could afford to retire here, and they chose a small townhouse in Fairport.
One of my aunt’s retirement experience is representative of two topics, namely snowbirds who retire in FL and retirees locating near adult children. In her young retired years, she and her husband set off to live in Florida, where they lived away from close family, roughly during the housing bubble runup years. Later, roughly concurrent with the bubble’s collapse, they relocated back north, near close (younger) family members. I never heard the full report on to what extent the relocation was driven by her husband’s failing health versus housing or other location-specific issues such as the ones Muggy outlined above.
I’m curious what grime has to do with Florida health care?
You know, like dirty waiting rooms, dirty floors, moldy vents, etc. Overall, health facilities here are dirtier than other areas I’ve lived.
I think the hospitals/nursing homes themselves are grimy?
Was “next door” in New Tampa for fourteen months ending early February.
I had a two bedroom place in New Tampa. My power cost no more than $40 per month even in the summer. I cranked my AC on full and in the summer sometimes was so cold I wore a sweatshirt sometimes (top floor of a three story building). Life was great!
Food: I agree with you. Maybe the location is too far away from the north Atlantic states or west coast but I could not get good wild salmon in the grocery stores. The best was farm raised but I want wild salmon. I can get good cuts in my nearby Phoenix grocers anytime of year. Even so, I favored my local SweetBay market and “The” Tampa Whole Foods, although it was the only WFM in Tampa and a long drive.
Health care. Maybe not near your area but in Tampa I got great health care. My specialist is one of the best and I would even consider flying back in June to Tampa to get an annual checkup. University of South Florida had great health care resources. I have another specialist in LA just steps from my apartment building and she is also a sharp doc.
Car insurance - no issue - I rented a car all the time I was there in NT. Used my AZ insurance.
Windstorm damage - I was fortunate not to have gone through any “hurry”cane when I was there.
I-75 from New Tampa to Sarasota is smooth and fast and lots of space on weekend beach trips.
Other things I like about Tampa: It has a neat airport, but the food choices there are not mucking fuch.
Its tax deal is very attractive. I can save thousands of dollars a year on my capital gains taxes just by changing my address to Florida. Or Nevada. At some point my part time job may be to manage my stock portfolio and optimize my tax avoidance while my other part time job will be writing software (20 hours per week and no more - my goal).
The weather: I’d be better off with the weather in Las Vegas, as I crave dryness. But the Tampa winters are very nice!
It makes total sense that you would love Florida.
Do they come down from Rochester to visit you in February or March?
When I lived in Pinellas I found that relatives would find a way to come visit during those months. July, August, or September? Not so much.
Heh. I lived in Fairport as a small child. I tried to “drive” by my old house on Google Earth street view but it isn’t there anymore. I think in the future that Rochester and Buffalo will be much better off than Florida. And as for retirement, not only is retirement a dying status and concept — really, how many Boomers are going to be retiring? — if we ever stop getting reliable air conditioning, just being in this state instantly becomes lethal for elderly people.
That is hilarious about trying to get around Pinellas with public transit. Despite decades of ugly fail, there is no acceptable mobility suggestion around here that does not involve building or widening roads.
“And as for retirement, not only is retirement a dying status and concept — really, how many Boomers are going to be retiring?”
BINGO
“I think in the future that Rochester and Buffalo will be much better off than Florida.”
And there’s really why I am always getting bent out of shape over living and raising my family here.
Snake, what industry are in? Do you like Tampa?
I keep my line of work undisclosed because discussing it might “out” me, but I was fortunate to have a beer with Ben on his HBB tour a few years ago. We missed you!
I always have liked it here, from the time I first arrived for a job interview that I arranged on a whim. The quality of life in this area, however, really took a nosedive once the housing bubble attained critical mass around 2003. But still, I have been in almost 40 states. Whenever my wife (who is from South America) and I try to evaluate where else in the United States we might want to live, there are only a few places that we even would consider.
One thing about Florida — in my view, it’s the most interesting state in the U.S. And I mean that in all senses of the word, good as well as bad.
I am always surprised at how many people here subsist on convenience-store fare. I’ve been to CVS or Walgreens a couple of times recently and waited in line at check-out while someone purchased a large quantity of food items.
And they subsist hand-to-mouth that way. I’ve seen people buy a hot dog or a taquito(?) at 7-11 and eat it on the sidewalk outside. When they get hungry again to go to whatever 7-11 is closest and repeat. They probably keep no food in the house at all.
Friends just bought a place in Sarasota FL. They bought it from a couple who had the place for 19 years. The lady told them she couldn’t tell them much about the stove as they had eaten out for every meal including breakfast for all that time…friend said they were in their 90’s so I guess it didn’t shorten their lives.
Muggy, I have been following your input concerning Fl housing for several years and appreciate your input. I do not know if I meet the strict requirements of a snowbird but I just retired at 64 years old and we are considering moving to Fl from Va. This has been our plan since our honeymoon on Longboat Key in 1977.
Several months ago you mentioned Port Orange and Ormand Beach (Daytona) as your choice as a decent location on the Atlantic coast. I have been following the area since then and have not seen much info other than prices across the board in those areas appear to be rising. Do not know how sellers can justify increasjng prices by $5 -10,000 on homes that they have been attempting to sell for 250+ days but…….
Was hoping that you would take a few minutes to explain your preference for this area and why it appears to be “special”. I do not know whether ther are Fl pockets that have recovered/not been hit as badly or if this is just another short turn market flukes.
Zeke, I am happy to help any HBB’er navigate Florida, but I really only know Pinellas County and the Lower Keys. It must have been one of the other Florida regulars that mentioned the Daytona area. I’ve been to a four day conference over there, and I enjoyed it, but it was off-season and I didn’t get off the main drag.
My wife has family in Melbourne and I thought the area was neat as well.
No matter where you go, if you can be 5 miles inland (to avoid windstorm) and not be in a warzone/sinkhole area, Florida can be affordable.
Muggy, thanks for your input. It may be oul lack of understanding about the Florida lifestyle, but being 20 minutes inland does not strike us as a great burden considering the downside of hurricanes. We live in Va about 30 minutes from the beach the same reason. Again thank you and other contributers for the education.
Don’t know about walk in bath tubs but KEEP the old claw foot one in case you ever sell the house to a restortation buff. Even if they have to spend a million dollars to reglaze it their heart will melt that it is the original tub.
Yep. Robin, I put somse suggestions in yesterday’s thread too. Whatever you do, keep the original tub, in the basement or the backyard if need be. When it comes to renovations, Craftsmans abide by a different set of rules. Just pick up any issue of American Bungalow.
“Craftsmen”??? lol
You’re presenting a clearer picture with every post Oxy.
From yesterday’s posts, Robin lives in a 1918 Craftsman house. Probably a bungalow. For most houses, renovation means making it as modern as possible. For Craftsman homes, renovation means making it look exactly like it did in 1918, maybe with a little larger kitchen and that’s all.
So what is your picture of me now? Do you still think I’m a realtor?
I truly live in a 1918 Craftsman home. It, thankfully, is in a preservation zone in a designated historic district.
Initially, I believe it was a 1 bedroom, 1 bath property with a mother in-law quarters of approximately 400 square feet.
One of the closers for me was the two original clawfoot tubs cast around 1916. One house across the street was built in that year and originally had gas illumination only.
Old growth redwood bones and siding, with douglas fir flooring
as long as 21 continuous feet.
Leaky roof was replaced with 5/8″ plywood and 30-year shingles. Central air and heat.
I don’t think a top-of-the line Bosch energy-efficient dishwasher or a double insulated skylight, as well as 26 of 28 windows and doors double insulated detract at all from the initial vision. Much less the Corian countertop with its integrated German sink of similar material.
Main house is now 963 square feet due to an addition and a porch conversion. So much sweat equity with paint, installation of windows, complete rewiring, and more. Perfect for the two of us.
I consider Oxy a friend, so I don’t know where the hate is coming from ???
Hate? lol.
Hey…. maybe some crushed bone china to skim coat the 100 year old plaster and lath would get you one step closer to bankruptcy or “better homes(shacks) and gardens”.
RAL,
WTF? Good mushrooms?
Robin, I’m sorry if I implied that you ruined your bungalow. I wasn’t referring to moderizing the house guts, or using better windows or individual appliances; more like contempo fireplace surrounds or stainless steel contertops or trendy lighting, or just in general going against the grain of such a distinctive style. Enthusiasts are especially picky about bathrooms.
Elbert Hubbard and William Morris would certainly approved of efficient and beautiful windows and grounded outlets. But if Gustav Stickley ever stepped foot into an IKEA… um, not a pretty sight.
I lived in a 1920s bungalow neighborhood in San Diego. Number 1 offender was replacing the wood case windows with vinyl windows. Cheap and hideous looking on a vintage stucco or redwood clad home. Number two was replacing smooth stucco with that fugly tract house trowel stucco. Total deal breaker. Homes that were stripped of their original light fixtures, tilework or built-ins were typically rentals.
As for Phoenix homes, I am seeing a frenzy on Real Estate topics on City Data. The biggest cheerleader is Captain Bill. From what they say, the Canadians are snapping up homes in Arizona. A year ago was the supposed bottom. That is, most of the under $100,000 homes are taken, a high percentage by investors.
I keep hammering this in: In 2011 the homes around $100,000 and under were mostly junk in meth nabes or near barrios. Even then, the bottom you would want to pay for quality and good types of neighbors (responsible ones) would be $250,000. But no guarantee that there are deadbeats who haven’t made payments for half a decade next door to your $250,000 valued house.
I think it is grossly unethical by the City Data nazi moderators to crush dissent on the real estate topic. They are obviously biased toward the cheerleaders.
Imagine tens of thousands of Canadians who threw $100,000 each into homes, only to end up with $70,000 homes in 2017. It could happen, but I admit the chances are small. I have seen interesting charts that show various metro area house values over 20 year periods. Phoenix is about even with 2001. Tampa is below 2001. Vegas is about even with 2001. San Diego and Los Angeles / OC are still above 2003 or 2004.
I would think you’d get more for your money in Tampa, but Vegas and Phoenix may well be bargains like the cheerleaders are saying.
I think the optimum benchmark to buy is at 1997 prices, adjusted for inflation. We may get QE3 but after that finishes, interest rates would zoom up and the house prices would continue to fall 10 to 20 percent a year. Just a gut feeling. I won’t buy until rates go up above 8%.
“Chances are small.” I think chances are very high and, with the passage of more time, eventually will be 100%; many of those houses will be worth nothing in ten years. Hopefully when that day arrives our nation will have reached the conclusion that bailing out banks and enabling real estate speculation are bad ideas, but asset prices now are important parts of our national identity and responsibility and solvency are not.
But I do strongly agree with you that realistic interest rates would result in realistic real estate prices.
As a follower of market cycles, I do note that interest rates have been artificially held down so long that we are overdue for a furious increase in rates. When I think of “credit bubble” I think of rates the last dozen years, not rates since the 80s. I had a car loan of 11% in 1987 and a home loan of 8.25% in 1990.
Bonds, stocks and gold go way down in the first few years of the interest rate spikes. The only safe thing is cash in those times.
If one were to be set on prospering in interest rate hikes, he should be moving his assets gradually to cash the next couple of years. If you’ve done well in stocks and gold perhaps it’s time to cash in the chips. I don’t know for sure. I just keep a standard asset allocation of 33% government securities. Did well in my municipal bonds thanks to QE1 and QE2.
I don’t time the market. This is why I don’t change my asset allocation strategy.
I don’t disagree with either of you. I too wanted to wait for high interest rates to drop the prices. But interest rates are not only about houses. Don’t many banks — who bought off the government — depend on low interest rates for their profit? Somebody is clearly lobbying for low interest rates just to keep us from re-dipping. That’s probably why The Bernanke & Co. started whispering about not raising interest rates until, what 2014? Interest rates may not see 8% until 5-10 years from now. You can afford to wait for those price drops if your rent is cheap. But for those paying high rent, time is the enemy.
Yep. 1997 prices are about right… maybe even 95 or so.
Stay on’em on Citydata. They’ve owned the media outlets forever. It’s over now.
I do private messages to certain naive folks panting like stupid puppy dogs when the cheerleader regulars tout Phoenix RE. I warn them that they should not ask the barber if they need a haircut.
heh…. panting like stupid puppy dogs. There it is.
I agree about city data unreal bubblicious talk in Phoenix & LV. They gang up on any ‘bearish’ comments. The bottom is in and they are soooo smart for buying those cheap foreclosures. It’s real comedy.
I only look at the city data Phoenix forum threads every couple of months, like when my blood pressure is running dangerously low. Actually, it’s tough to take much there seriously. IIRC, realtor-captain Bill was also touting a bottom in 2007 and wis stilli likely six figures underwater on a Gilbert, AZ Garage Majal based on his purchase date.
Gee………no discussion about the “cardboard box under a Sunbelt overpass” retirement plan.
I brought that one up yesterday. A personal anecdote might shed light.
My oldest son and I participated in a San Diego River cleanup a couple of years back. It turns out the main source of debris was the homeless camp under the freeway overpass where we hauled out the main part of a (literal) truckload of trash. My son won a contest to pick up the most cigarette butts. I believe he found over 300 of them. I personally found it amazing that homeless folks could afford to smoke that much, a fact which I believe would pique Steven Levitt’s curiosity.
I was talking to a smoker who was addicted to opiates. He told me that at the height of his addiction, he would buy cigarettes before pills.
A common sense retirement plan would be to own a residence free and clear - that works for you. We are each different.
Some have life long friends where they live now. Some have most of their grandkids in one location. Will you always drive or need mass transit? I think stairs are out for most - but who knows.
Are taxes too high or utilities too high, it’s seems to be one or the other. Can you live without a car, just one car? And how do you want to spend your retirement years? Golf, fishing, long walks in the unpopulated outdoors?
Think realisticly about what you will be able to do and what you will need. Then think about what you want and how much of the want you will be able to afford and really do as you age.
How long will it take to set up the retirement you see in your future? And you may not be able to see that far ahead.
I had no clue at 30 or 40 what my retirement years would really look like.
I’m 60, and I still don’t….
At 58, we are getting our retirement living plans figured out. Bought the townhouse, mostly paid for, in the area that will work for us as we age. Hope, to a ripe old age.
Ahansen…
I’m 3 months away and still clueless.
On the positive side, I believe it means, especially as childless,
options abound!! -
I had no clue at 30 or 40 what my retirement years would really look like.
How is the reality different from your earlier expectations?
We want to spend the winters here in Phx. and the summers just outside of Durango Co. With that in mind we decided on a townhouse rather than a single family - something I would never have considered in the past. Ever!!!
Also as we get older we don’t want to care for a lawn, pool etc but we like the use of them. The kids are all grown so we don’t need much space and I don’t want to clean all that space.
We also looked at future income, lower - and future costs, higher. Having no debt when we retire made all the difference.
Location in a walkable area with stores close, transit close, we will cut down to one car. If there comes a time we can no longer drive the transit is very close.
One of us will probably pass away before the other, no way to know who goes first. So we set things up to easily transfer with no taxes or probate. There is room enough for a roommate to help with expenses if needed. Or just to have a compainon. There will be less income with only one person’s retirement funds.
Looking ahead in my later years I want to be like my swimmer friend who is 76 and participates in the senior olympics - he can beat most people half his age in distance swims. If I’m lucky. I train a lot but have to keep eating right and keep regular doctor appointments. I have some conditions that may set me back, although I know people in their 70s still working and taking those medications still.
Anyhow if deterioration is worse than I expect, I would not want a place with stairs. I want a walkable / wheelchairable area. I want good medical care within easy drive, and that includes top hospitals. I want weather that is friendly to my aching bones. So this seems like downtown Phoenix or Tempe, with walkability, light rail, and so forth, are the best areas to aim at. Las Vegas is appealing because of its low taxes, but I’m not sure about its medical care. Tucson has great medical care - obvious since the doctors who performed excellent surgery on former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords.
My main residences have been in desert areas since the mid-80s, so I’m used to sunshine.
It seems our bodies tolerate swamp coolers and higher temperatures better as we age, compared to true A/C and coastal breezes.
True fact or myth? Do we suddenly aspire for leathery skin and wrinkles,
or is it just a cost/benefit tradeoff?
I have a more difficult time with the heat the older I get.
110 is about the max for me now.
105 is still doable, but I tire more easily, can be out in it for less time.
Then again, it may just be that I tire sooner anyway.
I also have a more difficult time with heat as I age. Which is why I’m looking at western NC, maybe a moderate elevation in the mountain region.
Researching walk-in tubs; they seem absurdly expensive….
Last year, I got tired of pole-vaulting into my bathtub, and just ripped the thing out, replacing it with a 36×60 shower base. Lots of them out there, much cheaper than the so-called walk-in tubs. I used Wedi, one with a linear drain. You can have your installer put in any height of curb you want. I opted for no curb at all–after multiple hip surgeries, it’s a relief to just stride right in to the shower. As for the dreaded water leakage issue, the new flow-restricted shower heads solve much of this problem, and a strategically placed shower curtain solves the rest. I get a few drops out of bounds, that’s it.
I learned a lot about tub/shower remodeling issues at johnbridge.com. For my particular setup, just google “rudy the tile guy” (He uses me as a reference.).
Thank you. My in laws have something similar and love it.
Thanks t3, but do I have to restrict myself to pathetic low-flows when 32-jet alternatives are available but obviously enclosed.
Some water massage would seem optional.
… 32-jet alternatives are available …
Yeah, I saw these in action at the various plumbing showrooms in Chicago. I dunno. It’s a fascinating bit of mechanism, and there is an element of drama to the watery performance. But ultimately, I decided that the whole thing was a bit to car-washey for my tastes. Plus, the need for oversized supply and drain pipes can skyrocket your remodeling costs. KISS; do one thing well; and other engineering principles apply.
As for water massage, I agree that there’s nothing like a warm water jet on sore muscles and joints. Cost-prohibitive to put something industrial-strength in the home, I think. Even my local Y gave up–just too expensive to build and maintain.
I mentioned a few weeks ago that I started an attorney job at a new law firm that does financial services work. Wanted to update to the extent I’m able to pass along some info. The firm and has grown rapidly because the major clients (BAC, Wells Fargo, Ally, Fannie, Freddie, FHA, etc etc) are able to provide incredible amounts of work. Right now, I handle the part of the cases where the house has already been foreclosed and the client is taking steps to get the house back. In VA, this means an Unlawful Detainer action, whereas in MD it’s a Motion for Possession. As you can imagine, every client handles these things differently. Some are quick with the “cash for keys” offers, others are more aggressive. Additionally, every jurisdiction is different. Virginia is a PITA in particular because of so many counties and independent cities (Newport News, Norfolk, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, etc etc). So finding out exactly what you need in each jurisdiction is a bit of a pain, also hiring and then dealing with local counsel (I only drive to hearings if they’re in the area between Towson, MD and Alexandria, VA because my time in the office managing things is more important… and I’m quite busy with Prince George’s County, MD anyway… it’s our busiest area).
There are many hoops to jump through and they’re changing all the time. All the HARP(s), statewide moratoriums on foreclosures (Maryland), the robosigning settlement, the different cash for keys offers, checking occupancy by paying a contractor to go knock on doors and peek into windows (occupancy status is required in Maryland, as occupancy determines how you must proceed as far as methods of service and timeline for eviction), special programs to help renters whose landlords have been foreclosed, etc. All of these things have wrinkles too… different jurisdictions want different language in affidavits, etc. And if someone claims to be a tenant, you have to figure out if they’re a bona fide tenant (not related to landlord, written lease, is it a reasonable rent, etc).
Five last observations —
1) the majority of FBs I come across have at least 1 bankruptcy in the past. Multiples are very common as well. For example, I frequently see a FB who filed bankruptcy in the 80s or 90s… then again in the early 2000s… and then bought their house and entered foreclosure within 2 or 3 yrs after that. We have to check BK status and file an affidavit with the court to show this. Also, we have a different department that makes the appropriate claims and does the research if someone is in bankruptcy. All of this is just more info that we must also communicate back to the clients. Each client treats a BK slightly differently as far as their internal timelines for pushing for eviction.
2) On a % basis, almost no one really “fights back” against foreclosure or eviction. I handles hundreds of cases and have only a handful of contested cases, none of which have a snowball’s chance in hell. We ignore many of the challenges, which the court will dismiss easily.
3) At least in Maryland and Virginia, the banks *do* want the houses back. They are very aggressive, but the hold up is the process proscribed by the law. Also, bankruptcies. However, at least in MD, the banks are fighting to get the houses back ASAP. Whether they sell them or not, maybe that is where the extend and pretend comes in…
4) Almost no one is buying foreclosures on the court house steps. When we handle a foreclosure, the client wins the auction at the court house steps 99% of the time. For some reason, this surprised me.
5) Every client has its own online system that brings together its lawyers and service providers… they are all bad. All of them. The worst are the ones for the GSEs. They’re hard to use (bad user interface) and too cumbersome compared to the value added.
Thank you for the info!
The banks are trying to sell the houses themselves, I believe. They aren’t making much headway because they’re trying to get their money back.
Oxy, I don’t quite understand the vigor with which some have attacked you. As I’ve said before, we bought last yr as well, plan to live in it 30 yrs (if not 40-50 yrs, since we are 30 y/o), and also bought for proximity to both of our jobs, infrastructure (new subway line, the Baltimore Red Line will be 5 blocks away), and family. Bought a rock solid house that is SFH (very rare in southeast Baltimore) and with a garage and decent sized land for gardening (I am very into gardening).
I think it is just the fact that you try to say that buying will “pencil out” on the upside. I’m not even sure this is important to you, but just the fact you make the argument pis*es people off, I think.
I don’t really care if property values go up or down. I don’t think they will be catastrophically down because 150k is only about 2x median family income in this region. Our house price is also only about 1x our income as a couple. And the biggest issue is that we could not have rented a SFH of this size, condition, and maintenance level for $1200, which is our PITI. At best, we could’ve gotten a beaten-up row house in a worse area of town surrounded by section 8s, illegal immigrants living 10 to a house, or loud/unruly chavs. By contrast, our block is incredibly quiet, basically 100% middle aged white people, and very stable–1 house for sale now, 3 sales in the past 3 yrs. Most, if not all, on our block could buy a 500k McMansion in Howard County but like living in the city. As for us, we like the idea that our PITI is a very small slice of our income and have no illusions that we “should” be living in Ellicott City or Glenelg. We regularly walk along the inner harbor, go to the symphony, try out new restaurants, etc. Not feasible due to traffic in the suburbs here.
I also note that you have a child, I never knew that… makes even more sense for me that you’d want to keep him/her away from the type of people who you might’ve lived around, plus stability with schools, etc.
“Oxy, I don’t quite understand the vigor with which some have attacked you.”
If you don’t want to get attacked by HBB regulars, then it is probably not a great strategy to throw rocks at those caught on the short end of the taxpayer-funded government-sponsored effort to reflate the housing bubble.
Friday, February 24, 2012 - 11:36
Fed’s Bullard: Not Feasible,Desirable To Reflate Housing Bubble
By Vicki Schmelzer
NEW YORK (MNI) - The U.S. housing market continues to faces significant “headwinds,” St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said Friday.
Bullard offered his observations on a piece “Housing, Monetary Policy and the Recovery,” co-authored by Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, Ethan Harris, co-head of global economic research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Amir Sufi, professor of finance at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and Kenneth West, professor of economics at the University of Wisconsin, which was presented at the Forum, sponsored by the Chicago Booth School of Business.
“The authors counsel that improvement is likely to be very slow and that in any case, there is no presumption that a booming housing market would be desirable in the aftermath of the collapse of the bubble,” Bullard said.
“The belief that drove the bubble cannot be reconstituted and therefore we say that the bubble has collapsed — it is neither feasible nor desirable to reinflate such a damaging bubble,” he stressed.
The authors point to myriad evidence that goes hand in hand with a real estate bubble that has been burst, he noted.
“The desired physical housing stock is lower than actual stock, according to the estimates in the paper, and likely by a substantial margin,” he said.
“Taken literally, this means that households would like to reduce square footage and remove amenities in exchange for lower levels of debt,” Bullard said.
For this to happen, the “natural depreciation in the housing capital stock” will need to “catch up with household desires,” he said.
…
“I don’t really care if property values go up or down. I don’t think they will be catastrophically down because 150k is only about 2x median family income in this region. ”
It is interesting that you put these two sentences next to each other.
(Channeling Combo)
1) the majority of FBs I come across have at least 1 bankruptcy in the past. Multiples are very common as well. For example, I frequently see a FB who filed bankruptcy in the 80s or 90s… then again in the early 2000s… and then bought their house and entered foreclosure within 2 or 3 yrs after that.
These are the flakes that live on the ragged edge and then a recession hits taking them out early on. On the bright side, since they are the first ones to crash they are also the first ones to recover too. Those who pay interest every month pay for the flakes, and the credit card companies love ‘em.
Joesmith
Summary: In your two states banks want their houses back, fast, and few (several bks) fight the repo. Courts lean heavily toward the banks.
As you seem to work for F&F etc, are most mortgages insured? Does the bank take any type of haircut? How long does it take F&F to pay up? Are any banks folding before they get paid the insurance funds? Cash for keys - does that figure into the banks loss? Is it only capital that is insured or is it all associated costs.
Thank you.
We would do everything in our power never to return to the Midwest or East.
No disrespect, but once we moved West and wake up to the the sun most everyday and smelled the roses we were hooked forever.