Bits Bucket for May 18, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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May 18, 2012, 1:48 a.m. EDT
China home prices drop in most major cities
By Chris Oliver
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Chinese new home prices showed a broadening slowdown in April, with fewer urban centers registering gains, according to official data released Friday. For the month, 43 cities showed declines in prices compared to March, while 46 cities showed declines on a year-on year basis, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, which tracks 70 cities in its survey. Three cities saw new home prices higher in April from March, though gains were slight, averaging 0.2%, the data showed. In March, eight cities had registered month-on-month price gains, the statistics bureau said.
Where will this dollar rally end? Who’d've thunk the dollar would beat up every other asset over a 15-day period?
2012 is proving to be a historically interesting year from an asset price perspective.
Bulletin
Stoxx Europe 600 off 1% as banks tumble in wake of Moody’s Spain move
May 18, 2012, 1:19 a.m. EDT
Dollar stays on fire, set for 15th day of rally
Uniform gains against Asian currencies discourage intervention
By V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — The U.S. dollar continued blazing its trail Friday, further extending its longest rally since at least 1985, as raging fears about the euro-zone’s troubles and deep losses for Asian equities lured investors into currencies believed to be safer.
The ICE dollar index DXY , a measure of the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major global currencies, rose to 81.619 from 81.454 in North American trade.
The day’s gains come on top of the buck’s 14-day winning run, a period over which it has gained about 3.7%, or nearly three full points, according to FactSet Research data.
…
Just think of how loudly the stock market bovine brigade would be lowing if the DJIA went up by 3.7%.
Poor Uncle Buck don’t get no respect.
May 18, 2012, 12:34 p.m. EDT
Dollar index slips after 14-session rally
Euro reclaims $1.27 level; G-8’s weekend meeting in focus
By Myra P. Saefong and William L. Watts, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The dollar traded mostly in narrow ranges Friday, edging lower after its longest rally since at least 1985, with currency investors eagerly awaiting news from this weekend’s Group of Eight meeting as worries percolated about the euro zone’s troubles.
The ICE dollar index (DXY -0.22%), a measure of the U.S. unit’s performance against a basket of six major global currencies, stood lately at 81.326, off from 81.454 late Thursday.
“Consistent with the very pricey effects we are seeing in the highest quality debt, the soaring U.S. dollar is creating its own pullbacks due to relentless overbought indicators and high prices,” said Richard Hastings, strategist at Global Hunter Securities. “We are going to see a lot of these moves for as long as the safety trades are receiving global inflows.”
The move modestly lower follows the greenback’s 14-day winning run, a period over which it has gained about 3.7%, or nearly three full points, according to FactSet Research data.
…
Does the market take it’s cue from FB and go up?
Or from Europe and go down?
If FB doesn’t rocket at the open of the IPO there may be blood all over the street. Will be an interesting day.
It is surreal to consider that the stock price of an internet social networking site would hold the world by a thread. I’m just breathless!
Speaking of breathless….I feel like slapping George Stephanopolos w/his breathy morning announcements of the headlines. I suppose it’s to signal what we’re supposed to be hanging by the tv w/anticipation for.
Is today the day FB goes on the market? zzzzzzzzzzzzzz…
I thought FB stood for F*cked Buyer? I guess it applies to the stock too.
That’s what I thought!!!!
With all the headline U.S. stock market indexes down early in the day, the FB-IPO stock market pop ended almost before it began. I guess investors will have to wait until next week for the dead cat bounce.
At any rate, the notion that one high-profile tech stock IPO should override a torrent of gloomy news from overseas is simply ludicrous.
May 18, 2012, 11:20 a.m. EDT
U.S. stocks rebound on Facebook
By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks bounced back from a run of losses with Facebook Inc.’s debut on Wall Street Friday reducing concern about Europe’s debt troubles.
Wall Street’s rise can be attributed to “we’ve had four sizable down days in a row, and the second thing is all the hype about Facebook (FB +5.18%), said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab.
“There’s just the fascination with this stock as a homegrown company that started as a dream. We haven’t had that sort of patriotic pride in this sort of entrepreneurship in a while,” he added.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA -0.38%) was up 13.59 points to 12,455.08.
The Dow has declined 11 out of the last 12 trading days, and is now down 5.7% for the month and 2.8% for the week.
The (S&P 500 SPX -0.38%) added 3.62 points to 1,308.48, with telecommunications rising the most among its 10 industry groups.
Notables rising included Salesforce.com inc., up 9.6%, after the maker of online solutions reported better-than-expected earnings and hiked its 2012 outlook.
The Nasdaq Composite (COMP -0.83%) rose nearly 2 points to 2,815.49.
…
Patriotic pride on Facebook? Did he really just say that?
Saw a re-posted tweet:
“@Gross — Go #Facebook, go! I don’t how to use it, but I know a bubble when I see one.”
I’ve been a bit skeptical of the value of Facebook, oh, ever since I heard about it.
And my skepticism has been confirmed by the recent news that Facebook only makes around five bucks per user. Look for efforts to raise that figure. And for the thundering sound of people exiting Facebook, just as they did with MySpace.
“Underwriters bought Facebook’s stock to keep it from falling below the IPO price, people with knowledge of the matter said today. The offering valued the company at 107 times trailing 12-month earnings, more than every S&P 500 member except Amazon.com Inc. and Equity Residential. The performance disappointed some investors who expected a first-day pop. ”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/facebook-raises-16-billion-in-biggest-technology-ipo-on-record.html
I guess a big chit-chat site isn’t *that* valuable after all.
My take is this: Facebook is pretty pervasive and people like the functionality it provides. They like to chit chat. A lot.
HOWEVER - it’s not worth what the IPO per share cost. Paper clips are fabulous. They’re not worth 100 dollars a clip. Ditto with sticky notes. I think Facebook has moved into a fully mature corporation with its market cap and massive resources (they’ve got some very impressive datacenters:
http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2011/04/18/video-inside-facebooks-server-room/ )
They’re going to be around for a while because they can just buy any serious competitors, a la Microsoft.
I remember the tech boom, a couple of guys and a server could garner millions in an IPO. However, another fact which soured things was a better understanding of how the stocks were distributed. The insiders got their shares first, then wait to sell them to the “bagholders” who get in later. That perception didn’t help:
“Google, whose founders made “Don’t be evil” a core principle, in 2004 issued its stock through a more transparent process known as a modified Dutch auction. Underwriters gathered bids from investors regardless of their connections or size of their portfolios.”
Facebook is selling its shares through a traditional Wall Street IPO, a more subjective process, one managed by investment bankers.
“The deal is probably not ‘fair,’ but there’s no way it can be,” said Bruce Foerster, owner of South Beach Capital Markets and former head of global equity syndicate at Lehman Brothers. “If you don’t have ties to Facebook management, if you don’t have accounts and an investment history with firms that are co-managing the deal, why should you get any stock?”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/18/net-us-facebook-ipo-smallinvestors-idUSBRE84G1E820120518
I think these factors made it a successful, but not tech-bubble-insane IPO. I like Mr. Foerster’s perspective, typical Wall Streeter. “Of course it’s not fair, but insiders made money so it’s okay.” Pay no attention to how Google did it.
But I do applaud Zuckerberg and the Facebook team. I look at things like this and just imagine how sweet it must be. They’re actually delivering something of value to users, and people of their own free will are buying the stock and thus the majority shareholders have become very wealthy. This kind of thing is great.
During the ongoing Great Recession, orchestrated by Wall Street fraud and deception, I look at the banksters and think, yeah, they’re extraordinarily wealthy, but they’re more like Mafia bosses than anything else. I respect wealth from achievement, not wealth from fraud.
Comment by Bronco
2012-05-17 22:10:29
I don’t even care anymore.
————–
Let’s see what part of the Keebler Cookie this falls under… Ah, yes, depression:
Denial — “I feel fine.”; “This can’t be happening, not to me.”
Anger — “Why me? It’s not fair!”; “How can this happen to me?”; ‘”Who is to blame?”
Bargaining — “I’ll do anything for a few more years.”; “I will give my life savings if…”
Depression — “I’m so sad, why bother with anything?”; “I’m going to die soon so what’s the point?”; “I miss my loved one, why go on?”
Acceptance — “It’s going to be okay.”; “I can’t fight it, I may as well prepare for it.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model
Moving on — I’ve prepared. I’m excited about the possibilities for enjoying life ahead. I am ready to go and do new things!
Not at all, Muggy. I would say I am in the acceptance phase. I have moved on; housing is not my major focus. There is more to life. It is, however, fun to grab a box of popcorn, find a comfortable seat and enjoy the show.
Can anyone comment on the 90% of this IPO being set aside for the institutional traders? Is this really standard practice? Do they attempt to make trades in large blocks in order to guarantee support of the initial price? Who puts together and controls the IPO? Is it the exhange it trades under or is a large institution a middleman?
Thanks for any insight you can offer this layman.
A large investment bank usually controls the IPO, and the vast majority of shares are almost always reserved for institutional traders (for example, the single largest controller of my employer is the Ohio State Teacher’s Union Pension Fund). The investment bank acts as a middleman to “sell” the IPO, and it is far easier to sell in multi-million share blocks than 100 share blocks to individual investors.
Two interesting aspects of the Facebook IPO are the shares being floated today are non-voting shares; and any voting shares outstanding will revert to non-voting shares upon being sold by their current owners. In layman’s terms, it is what is known as a “dual-class” voting structure with a catch.
The reason this is important is it allows Mark Zuckerberg will retain control of 57% of the voting shares; and, if he ever sells his stock, those shares will revert to non-voting. It allows Zuckerberg to cash in shares without losing control of the company.*
* As the founder of Green Mountain Coffee learned last week, you don’t ever, ever sell shares of the company you founded. It sends a terrible message. Even if you have the out that Zuckerberg has. What you do is you use your shares as collateral for a personal loan. The loan will likely be at a low rate (think mortgage APR), and, as a bonus, he won’t pay income tax on his loan. As long as he has enough cushion to avoid having to sell shares, he could live off an ever-increasing pile of debt for the rest of his days, and theoretically, never pay another dime of income tax.
I just saw this come across the ticker…
Later this year FaceBook will issue 277 million shares of stock to its 3500 employees…An average of 80,000 shares per employee…Even the Warehouse shipping guy it appears is going to do quite well…
now there’s some trickle down for ya.
What warehouse? Does facebook ship anything tangible?
Also, methinks that some employees will get more stock options than others. A lot more. There’s no way they’re gonna give secretaries $3 million in stock.
Most mid-size + companies have shipping & receiving…They may be small but they have them…They, multi-task also..Like move furniture etc…
There’s no way they’re gonna give secretaries $3 million in stock ??
Well, first of all, 80,000 shares @ $40. = $320,000…About 10% of your suggested 3-mil…
Secondly, you need to focus on the guy at the top…Pretty modest kid unlike another CEO just up the road from him named Larry Elison…
Just look at their campus in how he treats his people and that is just a starter home for them…The plans are underway right now for a new 1-million square foot campus…
My bet is that EVERYBODY employed at FaceBook today is smiling big-time…
Heck, a few years ago Facebook hired a grafitti artist to pain the new HQ. The artist turned down $60,000 payment in lieu of stock; it has been documented that he was given approximately five million shares.
Asssuming he could offload at $38 a share (he can’t during the IPO, the most he could get is 3% off that due to terms of the agreement), he’s still looking at upwards of $200 million dollars before taxes.
First off, are there secretaries at FB? I can’t remember the last time I saw a secretary, period, let alone at a .com. Second, the MSM as usual is doing its lazy reporting. It may be an average of 80K shares per employee. But that’s based most likely on a varieity of factors, most of which is seniority. If you started last week you’re not getting the same # of shares as someone who was there 5 years ago. And third, issue stock to employees does not mean necessarily give stock to employees. It could be a stock purchase program where employees can buy shares at a discounted price which isn’t that uncommon. I worked for a couple of companies over the years where every quarter I could use up to 10% of my salary to buy company shares at 15% discount. It was essentially a 15% bonus the company offered me but taxed at capital gains rates rather than ordinary income rates.
Dave, you better recheck your math.
yes…yes he does.
Most mid-size + companies have shipping & receiving…They may be small but they have them…They, multi-task also..Like move furniture etc…
And in most companies those people are temps or outsourced.
you better recheck your math ??
Yeah…Sorry…My Bad…Well, So its only 3.2 mil…I hope they can get by on that…
Mr. Smithers ??
Everything that you say is common practice here is silicon valley but there is no way of really knowing the exact distribution now is there….My statement was that I saw that 277 million shares were going to be distributed at the end of the year to 3500 employees which would be an average of 80,000 shares each…You can draw your own conclusions on who gets what…
And in most companies those people are temps or outsourced ??
Not at Google or Facebook and that is who we were talking about right ??…Thats what I mean about how Mark treats his people…I am sure Larry Elison uses temps….
Asssuming he could offload at $38 a share (he can’t during the IPO, the most he could get is 3% off that due to terms of the agreement), he’s still looking at upwards of $200 million dollars before taxes. Careful. It’s common practice for a company to do a reverse split on the shares prior to IPO. This gets the per-share price from very small (pennies or a buck) into the $ range of the offer. Not to say that the painter isn’t still getting millions, but probably a fraction of the 5M x $38 you are showing.
Sounds like a New Paradigm to me. …Or the precursor to hyperinflation.
Do they say how much of that stock will be used to lure talented people away from other companies?
They now have two types of fairly liquid currency…cash, and stock. Might as well use it to hire.
how much of that stock will be used to lure talented people away ??
I have heard from a few tech engineers that some goggle people have jumped ship to Facebook…
My wife is at Google and she knows of a few that left a while ago (Sandberg used to be a G as well).
But I should also say that pre-IPO is different…no big pop left at this point…they will likely need to use stock grants, not just options to compensate.
Thanks Bad Chille. That really helps size up the media coverage and assess what’s really going on here.
And here is a good summary:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505245_162-57436824/questions-and-answers-on-blockbuster-facebook-ipo/
Good link, Bad! -
Chucky Schumer and his Ex-Patriot Bill, wow. These parasites are out of control. And did I mention hypocritical?
The elite will do anything they can think of to pull all resources to the center, so as to keep their game going as is.
Sounds like Washington DC and Wall Street! And Greeceafornia, too. Can’t leave them out of the party mix.
Didn’t Ron Paul say something about the walls?
You guys will love this one. Calling RAL!
Sold last summer. One of those properties that was off the market for full price, actually $100 over, within days of being offered. They just had to have it.:
Recently Sold: $250,000
Zestimate®: $209,900
Est. Mortgage: $906/mo (before taxes)..
See current rates on Zillow
Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sqft: 1,815
Lot: 1,180,911 sq ft / 27.11 acres
Type: Single Family
Year built: 2006
Last sold: Aug 2011 for $250,000
Parking:
Garage - Attached
Cooling:
Central Heating: Forced air
Fireplace:
–
What is their rent estimate (if they have one)?
“What is their rent estimate (if they have one)?”
Who knows, but the Zillow rent estimate probably reads $5,670/mo.
Surprisingly, I’ve found Zillow’s rent estimates to be closer to reality than their value estimates (which could be unique to the markets in which I look).
Zillow rent claims $1600/month.
It’s hard to say how I feel about that figure. Compared to my rent vs our rental’s stats, that’s way overpriced.
What would you say a reasonable rent would be…$1,300? $1,200?
Q: “What’s the price?”
A: “You’ll have to buy it to find out.”
+1 LOL!
Reporting from the current Center of the Universe (thank you, NATO summit), Chicago…
Some offices in the downtown area closed today, more will be closed on Monday. As I got off the train today I walked past Boeing HQ which apparently is targeted for a protest march today–there are a few windows which are tastefully boarded up and there were about 6 cops/security guards patrolling in front. It’s on the Chicago River and there’s a plaza in front of the building where you can sit, eat lunch, etc–that is totally blocked off. Heightened police presence in the train station today, probably 20% less traffic than usual for a Friday morning in the Loop.
Of course it’s too early to tell, but when I first heard about the summit I felt there was a better than average chance of some ugliness/violence, but I’m not getting that sense as of yet. Pretty mellow thus far…
I hope none of the NATO visitors had their hearts set on going to the aquarium, planetarium or the Field Museum because they have all closed until it’s over. Still wondering how this is actually going to benefit the city?
Still wondering how this is actually going to benefit the city?
I’m starting to wonder about that myself. Seems like these big gatherings are turning into the Olympics.
Meaning that if your city wins the bid, you’ll be paying the cost for many years to come. (Didn’t Montreal finally finish paying off the 1976 Olympics a few years ago?)
“As I got off the train today I walked …”
Hopin’ yous had a most pleasant rail ride!
I was just checking out the year-on-year change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is down by 153.26 since this time last May, essentially flat. Looked at this way, stocks are doing about as well as a passbook savings account at the moment, but without the $250,000 F.D.I.C. guarantee against losses.
A napkin calculation of the CPI v DJIA suggests that stocks are overvalued.
2.2% GDP growth which translates into $ 600 billion, $ 1.4 trillion of which is government deficit spending with a ZIRP cherry on top is what tells me the same.
So much for the hedge funds charging their 2 and 20, or retirement gurus extracting their 1.1 percent.
And I wonder how my employer is going to come up with the 8.5 percent return he expects to get on the float to pay his pensioners?
And insurance companies: Many have sold annuities during the high-return days and now that the returns are way down just where is the money going to come from to satisfy their prior commitments?
Ponzi anyone? Bring in lots of new cash so as to pay out what is promised? This might work is these low return days were temporary, but if they are not then somewhere down the line something will have to give.
“8.5 percent return”
Good luck with that assumption!
In the company’s Annual Report, buried in the notes, is their assumption that they will earn 8.5 percent on their retirement stash. This assumption is made just after their acknowledgement that the previous year’s assumption fell well short of the 8.5 percent they were then expecting.
It used to be - just a few years ago - that their retirement commitments were well over 100% funded, now the figure is pushing the 80% funding level.
The importance of this trend is not lost on me but it seems to be lost on the majority of my co-workers in that they believe the company HAS TO live up to its retirement commitments because “it’s the law”.
But, no money means no money - law or not.
See Delta Airlines for the case and point. My friend’s father was a pilot who had his pension pulled out from under him.
The BK judge decided that no pension, but an operating business was better than no pension and no business.
“8.5 percent on their retirement stash”
I suspect that 8.5 percent was arrived at because it made the promises work out.
What does a 401K have to earn to make the numbers work out? Are those with 401Ks ultimately going to be better off than those with pensions? Film at 11.
It wasn’t all that long ago when the 10 year Treasuries were paying north of 4% a year, and go back a few years longer and they were paying 5%, 6%, 7%.
In other words, the “risk free” rate in the financial world actually had some amount of substance.
To the risk free rate you add a risk premium for investing in riskier assets, say 1% to 3% for bonds and 4%+ for stocks.
With the risk free rate on Treasuries compressed to today’s microscopic levels, the entire universe of investment alternatives is now in a much lower return environment.
Anyway, to get to an 8.5% portfolio return in today’s environment is a real challenge.
“In the company’s Annual Report, buried in the notes, is their assumption that they will earn 8.5 percent on their retirement stash. This assumption is made just after their acknowledgement that the previous year’s assumption fell well short of the 8.5 percent they were then expecting.”
I assume this pertains to the assumption which underlies the actuarial present value of future liabilities calculation for a defined benefit pension plan? If so, do you understand the relevance of that 8.5 percent assumption?
Short explanation:
1) The higher the pension fund earnings assumption, the lower the present value of future liabilities will look.
2) So long as the present value of future liabilities is sufficiently low, the pension fund assets will cover most or all of the liabilities, implying no requirement for the company to make a current contribution to the pension fund.
You didn’t factor in dividends.
As of April 30th, total return for S&P500 (including dividends) was 4.76% of the year. Without dividends (price return) was 2.52%.
And dividends are taxed at 15% whereas interest is taxed at the highest marginal rate, which for most people with money to invest is above 15%.
Yes but many stocks pay dividends. I am getting on average ~6%. Some of the stocks I bought when they were low.
Census Bureau: Minority births outnumbered whites for first time
By Michael Muskal
May 17, 2012, 11:09 a.m.
The United States has reached a historic tipping point — with Latino, Asian, mixed race and African American births constituting a majority of births for the first time, theU.S. Census Bureau reported Thursday.
Minorities made up about 2 million, or 50.4%, of the births in the 12-month period ending July 2011, enough to create the milestone. The latest figure was up from 49.5% in the 2010 census.
The racial and ethnic shift was an expected, but still important, turning point for the nation, whose economic and political elites remain essentially white and primarily male. The new numbers indicate that the upcoming generations will be more diverse and could have an increasingly broader view of issues — such as immigration reform — that are based on race and ethnicity. There will also be cultural changes — as there have been in recent years, with foods, music and ideas from Latino cultures, for example, spreading into the mainstream.
…
To me it is no big deal about race. I remember a neat Science Digest magazine article many years ago explaining that races have morphed and combined and separated many times. From my perspective, I have had many interracial relationships. Intelligence and looks (minus skin color) matter to me, not what their ancestors did. Racism is for statists. I am not interested in groups governments, religion, or crusades.
Looks ??
Over-rated…Way over-rated…Just an ego-rub….
Intelligence ??
Yeah but there are many levels of that at no fault to the person that maybe lacking it…
I will take empathy any-day as the most attractive personel attribute…
Looks ??
Over-rated…Way over-rated…Just an ego-rub….
Yeah, right. That’s why ugly girls are more popular than pretty ones.
That’s why ugly girls are more popular than pretty ones ??
More popular with who ?? 25 year olds ??
Define ugly…
More popular with who ?? 25 year olds ??
Are you familiar with the term “trophy wife”?
Are you familiar with the term “trophy wife” ??
Well sure…Eye-Candy, Boulevard Gal, trophy wife are all the same…Thats why in my post above I said it is a “ego-rub”….
Be careful judging intelligence. It is, often, selective.
To me it is no big deal about race.
Until you find yourself discriminated because you aren’t part of the tribe.
If the discrimination is done cleverly enough you will never know it.
You might even end up thanking them.
“…thanking them.”
Especially if the discrimination goes horribly awry, such as might happen if you used massive loan subsidies to lure members of racially-targeted groups into buying houses they cannot afford.
I was thinking about the horror stories I’ve heard of all Indian IT shops in the US.
I was thinking about the horror stories I’ve heard of all Indian IT shops in the US.
I thought the they treated their kind worse (low pay, long hrs, etc) than the gringos.
To really get away with hosing somebody tell him how he was just about to have his life totally screwed up by the company’s PTB until you stepped in and put your own job on the line by standing up for him.
Then tell him what you won for him - which is not what he wanted but is much better than what was threatened with - and he will be, oh, so ever grateful to you.
Here’s a heart warming golden oldie of race relations from the 2001 Cincinnati riots:
http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2001/07/09/loc_riots_effects_wont.html
“Ms. Jones is African-American and albino. She learned as a child that she stood out because of her fair skin, and that some people would judge her based on nothing else.
She also learned to accept who she was, even when others did not. She ignored the occasional joke or insult. She went to school, started a career, had a baby.
In the life she had built, skin color didn’t seem to matter anymore.
It mattered a great deal, though, when rioters surrounded her Honda Accord as she drove home through Avondale on April 11. The 28-year-old mom had just finished an evening class at the University of Cincinnati and was on her way home to Over-the-Rhine.
Someone in the crowd shouted something about a “white girl.” Ms. Jones had heard white motorists were being targeted by rioters, but she didn’t think the comment was directed at her.
Moments later, rocks smashed her windshield and a brick slammed into the side of her head. As a man pulled her to safety, she heard him yell to the crowd: “She’s black! She’s black!”
The rioters stopped attacking Ms. Jones, but continued to smash her car for another hour or so.”
Tribalism at it’s best.
Graduated from a high school that was 60% black.
It was around 90% black when my little brother graduated.
Definitely know where you are coming from.
My little brother and I often discuss writing a novel about our experiences. Would probably get a bounty put on our heads if we did though.
Most people are too busy competing against one another within the tribe, they have hardly have any time to discriminate outside the tribe.
There used to be this tribe in the US that didn’t care that much about differences in race and religion.
It was called the Middle Class.
That tribe is being wiped out by the 21st Century version of smallpox infested blankets, aka as “Free Trade” and “Globalization”, so everyone is finding themselves being forced back into their old tribes, to fight over a constantly shrinking money pool.
What bonds the tribe is the threat from outside the tribe. Once the outside threat is removed the infighting begins anew.
“There used to be this tribe in the US that didn’t care that much about differences in race and religion.
It was called the Middle Class.
That tribe is being wiped out by the 21st Century version of smallpox infested blankets, aka as “Free Trade” and “Globalization”, so everyone is finding themselves being forced back into their old tribes, to fight over a constantly shrinking money pool.”
A very good summation imo fixr.
It was called the Middle Class.
An ancient race.
Probably a lot of things are no big deal to those with no kids.
As I said yesterday, it will be interesting to see it whites can now apply for minority privileges.
No, they won’t be. Because according to Race Hustlers Inc® like Sharpton and Jackson, every whitey is by default a member of the oppressor class. Doesn’t matter if you just got off the boat from Sarajevo fifteen years ago, you are just as much an oppressor as someone descended from ten generations of plantation owners. And look forward to whitey getting plenty of Justice For Trayvon® during this year’s Long Hot Summer
historical advantage.
I’m afraid you may be right.
Why afraid? Because this will play right into the white supremacist’s agenda and this time, it will be a legitimate point. (by that I mean, too visible for the average person to ignore)
The controversy should start before the end of the year. Watch for the build up soon.
The squad predicts: one of all the paranoid whiteys running around with a concealed carry is going to kill the next Trayvon Martin sometime very soon. THE LONG HOT SUMMER IS HERE
As I said yesterday, it will be interesting to see it whites can now apply for minority privileges.
The key phrase is, “minorities at risk.”
There will also be cultural changes — as there have been in recent years, with foods, music and ideas from Latino cultures, for example, spreading into the mainstream.
More good food and great music? Bring it on!
I’m quite a big fan of Latino food. Their music IMHO is really lame.
I’m with you Neuro, Mexican food is the best the music …..well it..
kinda sucks.
That makes three. But if you are German, there are similarities you may like with the loud brass, oompa sound.
And both like beer. And I like beer! And chile rellenos (aaah!)
This MarketWatcher seems to be the stock market’s fair weather friend. Just a few weeks back, he was making the bull case; now he claims another flash crash is imminent.
May 18, 2012, 3:37 a.m. EDT
Forget Facebook; stocks are at serious risk
By Michael A. Gayed
“A good many dramatic situations begin with screaming.” — Jane Fonda
Something major has changed in the last 48 hours which could result in a “mini-Flash Crash” in stocks if not reversed shortly.
First, some background on this week’s writings. On May 14, I put out a piece I wrote Sunday night titled “Is another ‘Summer Crash Coming’?” in which I addressed the idea that Marc Faber of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report brought up last week of a 1987-style crash being possible if stocks made new highs in the coming months.
In that article, I specifically looked at the bond-to-stock ratio arguing that “the trend of outperformance [in bonds relative to stocks] isn’t as accelerated as it was in the Summer Crash of 2011, and the conditions are nowhere near as similar given that inflation expectations remain elevated.” I concluded that the “bear paradox” of low yields in the face of stocks increasing dividends makes any kind of a deep correction a low probability event.
Later that day on Monday, I co-hosted Bloomberg Rewind alongside my colleague Ed Dempsey and discussed the negative narrative, Spring Switch, and many other macro topics. Around the 5 minute, 50 second mark, I noted that there was a “credit spread blowout” that happened early on Monday with junk debt and sovereign debt performing very poorly relative to Treasuries that day.
…
lol…the yahoo finance page just has facebook in the DOWs place.
beautiful.
Maybe we could convince them to replace the NASDAQ ticker with the current Zillow value of a person’s house.
COFFEE IS FOR CLOSERS!
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2012/05/17/20120517arizonas-jobless-rate.html
This is interesting. Housing recovery appears to be leading to jobs.
“Arizona’s construction industry, which lost half of its jobs during the economic downturn, gained 7,200 jobs, up 6.6percent.”
The beginning of a virtuous cycle?
Nationally, construction employment has been the laggard…
Yep. Good ole Arizona. Where the economy is based on building houses for people who are going to come here to…
…sell houses.
Keep cranking out that inventory baby…I can’t wait to see people fighting for lots in communities 30+ miles from the work centers while we have $4 per gallon gasoline. By the way, it was 105 in Phoenix yesterday.
It’s a long way to October.
By the way, it was 105 in Phoenix yesterday.
Able to get any sleep at night without AC?
I have never been without AC. I guess you could this time of year, but when the monsoon humidity comes, I doubt it.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2018232854_chinasolartariff18.html
“The U.S. Commerce Department said Thursday that it has decided to impose tariffs of more than 31 percent on solar panels imported from China, after concluding that Chinese producers had “dumped” solar panels on the U.S. market for less than it costs to manufacture and ship them.
The tariffs, which are retroactive to 90 days before the decision, are in addition to anti-subsidy tariffs of 2.9 to 4.73 percent that the department imposed in March. Since Chinese panels make up a large portion of the U.S. market, the combined anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs are likely to mean a substantial increase in the price of solar panels here.”
Would Solyndra have survived if these tariffs had been in place two years ago? Or was their technology just a bad choice?
Solyndra was just plain badly managed.
There have been dozens of successful American solar mfgs. I say “have been” as they were BOUGHT by the Chinese and moved overseas.
So we’re really buying our own tech, it’s just Chinese owned at this time.
The Chinese aren’t stupid. Solar and wind built into every building IS the future and they are making a serious strategic move buying up OUR solar and wind mfgs.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2018236298_apushousedefensespending.html
“The House on Friday endorsed the indefinite detention without trial of terrorist suspects, even for U.S. citizens seized on American soil.
A coalition of Democrats and tea party Republicans fell short in their effort to end the controversial policy established last year and based on the post-Sept. 11 authorization for the use of military force that allows indefinite detention of enemy combatants.
The Republican-controlled House rejected an amendment by Reps. Adam Smith, D-Wash., and Justin Amash, R-Mich., that would have barred indefinite detention and rolled back mandatory military custody. The vote was 238-182.”
My bold. Could such a coalition form the basis for a new party?
Moot point. Just yesterday, a federal judge has ruled indefinite detention un-Constiutional.
The law may be moot, but the coalition is interesting.
Will never happen. Any who wander off the plantation will be whipped and dragged back into the fold…
Money owns everything. In our local race a 25 to 1 money advantage (mostly from out of state) has swung the polling 15 points.
Ad hoc coalitions are nothing unusual.
PARIS — French President Francois Hollande’s new Socialist-led government adopted a 30 percent pay cut Thursday, a gesture of shared sacrifice by leaders who must now reduce the country’s massive debts and tackle spiraling unemployment.
Those damn socialists.
kinda like the mob boss that hands out free turkeys.
“kinda like the mob boss that hands out free turkeys.”
If you’re saying it’s a politically motivated move, OK. But I find it very easy to see the pay cut as a gesture of shared sacrifice made to achieve a desired solution, and I find it impossible to compare it to a bribe. I am trying, though.
time will tell.
history obviously doesn’t.
“kinda like the mob boss that hands out free turkeys.?”
Better than our mobs bosses who demand trillion dollar bailouts and our politicians who are just sock puppets for corporate communism.
kinda like the mob boss that hands out free turkeys.
kinda like what a 1%er propagandist would say.
That should cut about .00000001% of France’s budget. Good job guys!
Not a big drop, but maybe when they ask others to take pay or benefit cuts they will say the leadership took a cut so maybe I’ll be willing to as well. When in American history has our leadership cut their own salaries 30%??
That’s a point.
“They may be underwater, but their monthly payment will be smaller. ” That’s, in essence, what the President said.
For the deets, check out the latest episode of West Wing Week. The money quote is about halfway through the video.
The name Groupons has always creeped me out.
Remember Napster and Kozmo?
Yeah. It’s kind of guttural. Could be a monster in a horror novel.
“The armored personnel carrier stopped with a hiss of air brakes. A hundred yards ahead, in a mangled wreck of metal, a Groupon fed on the corpse of a dead motorist. Decker shined the xenon searchlight into the surrounding forest. Nothing. He then pointed it directly at the Groupon. No response. It kept feeding. He crossed himself and stepped out of the vehicle, raising his heavy rifle to his shoulder. He clicked the selector to “fragmentation round”, sighted on the Groupon’s head, and fired.”
I like it. I was thinking more like this:
The realtors met secretly in the basement of the All American Title Company headquarters. It’s nondescript building — quite forgetful — a perfect place for their groupon.
Sounds like a snigglet between Group and Tampons…
Here’s something that pisses me off: I think banks think the area I live in is more valuable, way more valuable, than it actually is. The wishing prices on REOs, in many cases, are astronomical.
Bubble pricing got so high here because everyone was in on it. Den of thieves.
It’s amazing what prices are in other parts of the country that don’t have all of the FL problems, and yet, most of the jobs here pay crap and we still have massive price points.
And seriously, I check homepath.com every now and then. Really? Only 4 Fannie Mae homes in Seminole? Really? REALLY?
Oh, really?
21% or so of all loans in Florida are not current, or in the foreclosure process.
The big question is how long FL takes to work through the mess. As it sits right now, it appears as though the judicial process in the state will mean that it’s going to take YEARS.
Regarding Fannie homes…take a look at the listing agent for the few homes that you do see, and see if Fannie is using one guy for a particular region. In Northern CA, I am aware of at least one situation where all listings in one particular area were fed through one brokerage house.
If it is the same thing in Florida, call the broker, and make friends. If you can’t beat them…
Question, what is the quality of the Fannie homes that are on the market? If they are garbage, I wouldn’t be surprised if Fannie is selling the better stuff in bulk to institutional investors…
Great advice, Rental. The stuff in my area spans the range from tear-down to very nice.
I’ll keep an eye on who’s listing.
‘Only 4 Fannie Mae homes in Seminole’
I’ll give you my theory on this; the Republicans have been saying they want to get rid of the GSEs. The Democrats say they want to save them. It’s possible that the GSEs and HUD are holding back on inventory to make the housing market look better so Obama has a better chance at being re-elected, and they keep their jobs.
That’s a rationale thought right there.
A step further…… could it be proven that inventory is artificially lowered by the GSE’s in swing districts and states?
I was under the impression that the current goal was to move (transfer) the investment bank’s former illiquid assets to the taxpayers through the FHA backed lending. The investment banks preyed on the low-class poor folks using no-doc, high-fee mortgages toward the end of the bubble when everyone else knew the gig was over. This is why many of the modest properties appearing on the market are “as-is” fixers in chit neighborhoods.
The better “here’s the keys” homes in nice neighborhoods are still over-priced, and the GSEs have raised the qualifications threshold on potential borrowers.
I suspect it has more to do with banks being able to unload inventory at a higher price. Seriously money controls everything in our gov. You really think some Gov worker would be able to stand in the way of what the banking sector wants. Fat chance.
‘more to do with banks being able to unload inventory at a higher price’
Banks hold tiny amounts of inventory compared to the GSE’s.
That would certainly make sense based on the data I posted the other day.
Fannie was reducing inventory in all bubble states…except FL. There, the REO inventory of Fannie was growing fast.
You would think that with reports of rising prices in FL, Fannie would have an easier time selling homes…
They give data on how long from first missed payment to foreclosure (over 1,000 days), but they don’t give information on how long on average it takes from foreclosure to sale date…
Foreclosure Radar has this for CA (264 days–and rising gradually), AZ (232 days–and rising FAST), and NV (216 days–and rising gradually).
No data for FL…
A bubble-related employment item:
Part of my job is staffing certain programs. A recent interviewee stated in an interview he had a house to sell.
I tried to explain to the boss lady that people today will move regardless. She did not understand this perspective, and did not offer this guy the job because of his house situation.
Missing detail: the house in not in Florida; the job is in Florida.
Good granular state-by-state jobs data came out today:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/laus.pdf
Headlines for my home state (California):
Government jobs down year on year.
Construction jobs flat year on year.
Manufacturing jobs flat year on year.
Most other categories up year on year.
In other words, no surprises here. Although I was surprised that the last page showed CA as among the better states in terms of year-on-year job growth, even though our unemployment rate still sucks.
Are we counting more of our unemployed than other states?