‘More Inventory Than We Need At This Point’
The Press Democrat reports on one housing market in California. “Across Sonoma County, homes are staying on the market five and six weeks and supplies have more than doubled over the past year. More buyers have stepped back from high prices and rising interest rates. ‘A lot of sellers are being faced with the reality that buyers are cognizant of what prices are and that there’s a lot more to choose from,’ said Ron Wareham, broker in Santa Rosa.”
“Inventories have grown at the fastest rate in southwest Santa Rosa, east Petaluma and Windsor, according to the latest Press Democrat sales report. ”
“The supply of homes for sale continues to grow because new listings come on the market faster than homes sell. There were 1,571 homes on the market at the end of April, compared with 766 a year ago. Last month’s total equates to a 4.1-month supply compared with a 1.5-month supply a year ago.”
“Pricing is more important and negotiating is increasingly common. ‘What we’re going through now is a necessary adjustment with slowing sales and some downward adjustment in prices. I’d say right now it’s just going through a nominal adjustment,’ said Scott Stevens, an agent who has sold homes in the county the past 18 years.”
“Wherever buyers look, what they want is value, and that means homes in good condition at competitive prices. Those factors were less important during the recent three-year run of record sales and price increases.”
“Lots and lots of interested buyers have looked over a home on Wieling Way in Petaluma since it went on the market a month ago. But none have made any offers. A year ago, buyers were bidding up prices and homes usually sold in a couple of weeks. But things have changed. Today, homes are staying on the market longer, even attractive ones like the house on Wieling Way.”
“‘It’s had a tremendous amount of traffic. The feedback has all been positive,’ said Kathy Gomes-Feickert, the agent with the Petaluma listing. ‘They’re taking a little more time to do some shopping. There’s been more inventory than probably we need at this point.’”
“‘In the Windsor market, for quite a few years it was put it on the market and wait for the phone to ring,’ said (agent) Rob Zielske. ‘My time to accepted offer was two weeks. Now it’s over 45 days.’”
“The rate of price increases has slowed considerably in many of the county’s submarkets. Prices even went lower in a few areas during April. For instance, the same Windsor home that sold for $689,000 a year ago likely would go for about $630,000 now, Zielske said.”
‘There were 1,571 homes on the market at the end of April, compared with 766 a year ago. Last month’s total equates to a 4.1-month supply compared with a 1.5-month supply a year ago.’
And what would it be if properties weren’t being relisted? Nobody knows.
‘Pricing is more important and negotiating is increasingly common. Wherever buyers look, what they want is value, and that means homes in good condition at competitive prices. Those factors were less important during the recent three-year run of record sales and price increases.’
Increasingly common? Who wouldn’t negotiate when buying a house? These are the reasons Californians have wrecked so many markets.
‘There’s been more inventory than probably we need at this point.’
When realtors act as advocates of high home prices, they are likely more concerned with protecting profits from their own properties than making a sale, IMO.
“When realtors act as advocates of high home prices..” That is very succinct, Ben. It’s exactly what they have been doing, and with such glee that it’s sickening.
there are actually double that amount on the market. Posted on a previous thread with the actual data. This data is nothing more than a printed infomercial with fabricated data.
Of possible interest: ZipRealty.com is running a blog. Let ‘em know what you think about current market conditions!
http://ziprealty.typepad.com/blog/2006/05/ziprealty_price.html#comment-17515104
I love your “innocent” questions over at the ziprealty blog.
Interesting that ZipRealty is willing to link blogs like Piggington, Bubble Meter, etc. Most Realtor sites want to pretend these don’t even exist.
I saw this post here yesterday:
“Comment by cereal
2006-05-19 11:32:02
another bellwhether i’ve started watching is the total homes for sale on zip. it seems to be growing by a thousand everytime i log on. it’s at 793k right now, and was 791 this morning, and 78x something just last night.”
Checked the numbers again just now, and here is what I saw:
“ZipRealty has 800,034 active homes Nationwide”
http://www.ziprealty.com/maps/index.jsp?usage=search&cKey=74rbwvlk
(800/791-1) X 100% = a 1% increase in inventory over the course of just over 24 hours. If inventory grows at a comparable rate for the next few weeks, then there will be over 1 million homes on zip by the end of June.
I HATE TO BE SO BLUNT, BUT THIS INVENTORY CORRECTION IS STARTING TO RESEMBLE A FULL-BLOWN, REAL-TIME CRASH.
The empirical evidence of an accelerating inventory crash is consistent with Paul Krugman’s overview of deteriorating conditions in the US housing market (what he might refer to as a hissing of air out of the bubble). Krugman seems to think the housing market is unraveling quickly right about now, along with the rest of all the conundrum-related asset prices:
“Over the last few weeks, however, gravity seems to have started reasserting itself.
The dollar began falling about a month ago. So far it’s down less than 10 percent against the euro and the yen, but there’s a definite sense that foreign governments, in particular, are becoming less willing to keep the dollar strong by buying lots of U.S. debt.
The housing market seems to be weakening rapidly. As late as last October, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index, a measure of builders’ confidence, was still close to the high point it reached last summer. But on Monday the association announced that the index had fallen to its lowest level since 1995.”
Excerpt from his NY Times Op-ed Piece
http://www.trueblueliberal.com/2006/05/19/coming-down-to-earth/
I think it’s too early to say that foreign central banks are tired of the dollar. The real estate market is weakening quickly but I suspect we can live with our current account deficit a while longer.
I think as long as US consumers are willing to spend, China and the middle east will lend us the money.
It’s not that they are “tired”, it’s that they have to hold 700-800 billion more EVERY YEAR (less foreign investment) b/c of our trade deficit. Even with foreign investment it’s got to be in the hundreds of billions increase every year.
China already has too much dollar risk. They don’t want to go down with their best customer (USS Titanic).
They have very quietly let the Renmibi appreciate beyond their peg. This is all over but the shouting. Being right is scary sometimes.
Feepness,
If you look at what happened after the currency blowup at Bretton Woods in the early 1970s — when the British pound $US peg first ended, there was just a slight move, but it gradually accelerated into a route over the next couple of years. Next came the greatest period of $US inflation in history… (Gulp — need to buy some inflation insurance, and soon!)
I’m adding to our position in “inflation insurance” — spelled AU — lol — bit by bit….
And my husband thinks I’m nutz — wait till he sees what we can get with our AU when inflation soars and AU pushes $1,000 an oz.
It was a big deal when gas went over its all time inflation adjusted high at $3.12 a gallon.
Gold’s inflation adjusted high is currently about $2200. $1000 per ounce will merely be the psychological point at which people begin to understand where gold will be capable of going as the flight to quality goes gear up.
It goes up from Friday to Monday really fast as houses become listed for the weekend. Then during the week the increase is slower as fewer houses come on and some go off.
Still a big increase for a weekend. PHX over 46K now. SD at 20.5K.
I would think these towns would be starting to get hammered. Miami at 50+K. Boston area (4-4.5M people or so as they go out to Worchester) at 53K.
I live in Chandler, AZ and the amount of ‘for sale’ signs going up is mind boggling. And the houses on the market are sitting, meanwhile the inventory continues to soar. Soft Landing? My Ass!
In NoVA (fairfax county) each weekend it seems that total listings increase by about 1%…
I usually check inventory level on fri. and sat., and i like what I see
“I HATE TO BE SO BLUNT, BUT THIS INVENTORY CORRECTION IS STARTING TO RESEMBLE A FULL-BLOWN, REAL-TIME CRASH.”
I’ve been a RE bear for a year or so, but this is starting to get way beyond even where I thought it would go. Inventory levels in many areas are now blowing away all-time highs and the bust hasn’t even really taken hold yet. Normally you would see these inventory levels during the trough in a bust, not at the beginning like this. And RE cycles typically last several years. This implies that the inventory levels will get much, much higher than they are now.
How AG and BB can say that housing is simply cooling and prices won’t drop nationally is beyond me. Maybe they know something we don’t (like the fix is in?) Can’t imagine what the “fix” for this would be though. They could try to trash the dollar to save housing, but with wage stagnation and globalization, I doubt very much that this would actually work. All the hyperinflationists that imagine this outcome forget that wages must also hyperinflate and I just don’t see this happening in the current maco-economic climate. So, all of a sudden, housing prices skyrocket upwards even though your income didn’t? Or would they have us believe that housing will simply flatten out while they trash the dollar and everything else (like gas) skyrockets in price? How will you pay the mortgage when gas is $6/gal? Give me a break. BB will have to let the housing market’s chips fall where they may, IMO.
“For instance, the same Windsor home that sold for $689,000 a year ago likely would go for about $630,000 now, Zielske said.”
A $60,000 loss ! If one can put away $1,000 per month into saving,
it’ll take 5 years to pay for this loss. Most Americans live paycheck to
pay paycheck.
that’s assuming they can keep their job through the downturn
or dont get divorced or relocated etc and have to sell.
or strong-ARMed from rising rates.
“Pricing is more important and negotiating is increasingly common. ‘What we’re going through now is a necessary adjustment with slowing sales and some downward adjustment in prices. I’d say right now it’s just going through a nominal adjustment,’ said Scott Stevens, an agent who has sold homes in the county the past 18 years.”
IT’S JUST A MERE FLESH WOUND……
T.O.’s House is still for sale. Asking $4.199M down from $4.3M -
—–
$4,199,000 | Listing # 4623497
40 Landing Ct
Moorestown, NJ 08057-3951
Owner eager to sell….will consider all reasonable offers.
http://www.prufoxroach.com/search/search_results_profile.cfm?propID=556ea3de-2766-44a9-82db-6bddb4d754e7&propNo=2&startrow=1
It is written on the wind ” WHITE ELEPHANT”…..
Here is a Bay area haircut of about 8%. Way out distance suburb. It will fall much further, so the equity comment is a BIG joke. Just that the FBer hasn’t quite yet processed that in the pea-brain of theirs.
$688000 - FIVE PLUS BEDROOM 3 BATH + LOTS OF EQUITY!!! (pittsburg / antioch)
——————————————————————————–
Reply to: rafaelomar2004@yahoo.com
Date: 2006-05-19, 5:14PM PDT
ONE YEAR NEW SEENO HOME’S “THE VICEROY” IN HIGHLY DESIREABLE ALL NEW OAKLEY NEIGHBORHOOD. SPACIOUS 3,133 SQ FT. & APROX. 9,000 SQ FT LOT SIZE. SOARING CEILINGS, BIG TUB W/ SEPRATE SHOWER IN MASTER BEDROOM & WALK IN CLOSETS, FIVE BEDROOMS PLUS HUGE BONUS ROOM UP STAIRS BIG ENOUGH FOR TWO POOL TABLES! THREE CAR GARAGE, LOW MAINTENACE BACK YARD ; ) PLUS A LOT MORE.
HOUSE ACROSS THE STREET IS THE SAME MODEL AND SOLD FOR $740,000.00 LAST YEAR!
OPEN HOUSE THIS WEEKED SAT. & SUN. 05/20 05/21 FROM 1-4PM OR PLEASE CALL (510)706-1675 FOR ANY QUESTIONS; ASK FOR RAFAEL. SELLER IS VERY MOTIVATED AND WILL CONSIDER ALL OFFERS AS THEY COME. 100% FINANCING AVAILABLE O.A.C.
MICHELLE at EMPIRE
Poor guy across the street. At least 54K loss now. And more loss to come.
“LOTS OF EQUITY!!!”
Uh, who in their right mind would think they are getting a “Free” 54K if they buy ? Why would anyone give $54K away unless it didn’t exist ? Dear MICHELLE at EMPIRE, I wish to purchase this boon and have you sell it right away to free up that equity !
Cancelled, Expired and Withdrawn listings 1,696 homes at an average price of $997,148 - These homes were on the market for 81 days average.
Average sale prices in April 2006 were up by $74,218 (7%) from the same time a year ago.
Average days on the market increased only by 13 days from the same time a year ago.
Number of sales in April 2006 dropped by 1,585 (-69%) from a year ago.
This is for Irvine, CA. The number of cancelled or withdrawn homes seems high, don’t you think?
and the days on marketr seems low, hmmm, any info on relisted homes?
New listings taken in April: 9,140homes, Up by 516 homes (+6%) from last month, at an average Listed price of $968,985- Down by $42,537(-5%) from March.
Under Contract in April: 2,684 homes - Down by 452 homes (-17%) from March, at an average listed price of $788,412 - Down by $180,573 (-23%) from March.
Read about From the Realtor.
that’s great info melody, thanks. what’s your source?
Zip and Zill are symptoms of something else that’s different this time. When the market was ultra-tight buyers may have known about previous purchase prices but it didn’t matter. Now it matters AND everyone has access to the information. Soon another few bits of information will become important and this time be only a click away; tax lates and mortgage status. We’ve never had a down market where the buyers knew so much about the sellers. This used to also be one of the reasons to have an agent, so the potential buyer couldn’t smell the fear. Pricing power.
So true Robert. So much information and our fingertips. This is why the crash will be harder than most predict. We know too much.
I don’t know. I mean it works in the other direction as well. I can tell for a fact that without the wealth of information available on the internet, I probably would have bought in 2004.
Even with zip and zill, a house is still an illiquid asset that people are trying to hold on to as long as they can afford it, instead of selling for a loss. On average real estate crashes takes 4 years and I don’t expect this one to be faster.
Too much information can be a problem and it will take time before everyone understands how to use the data effectively. Ultimately it may help prevent future bubbles. Information also invariably accellerates economic corrections. Fast at first and then an extended shallow decline. Bubbles can’t deflate no matter what David Lereah says.
I was listening to the “Home Show” radio program again this morning on the Radio, they were reassuring some Barbie Doll in San Diego that she shouldn’t worry about buying since everyone wanted to live there and prices would go never down. Another ignorant fark called up wanting to know how to buy more houses without having his name on the mortgage since his lender had told him eight was the limit he could have. The hosts had a good time with that one as the guy had no idea why he had been told that and assumed it was bad old Fannie & Freddies rule that he couldn’t own more than eight out of state homes. It’s pretty obvious to me that there are still a plethora of ignorant speculators who spend more time watching American Idol then trying to monitor the housing market and economy in general.
These ignorant fools will all blow up by Dec 06 or sooner…
It won’t take that long - I predict it all gets started on June 6th….
Does anybody know how to get on-line information about the type of mortgage a LA home “owner” has?
The combination of ZipRealty and LA county assessor is a great tool. But if one could also easily know whether the home “owner” is a FB or indeed owns the house …
Robert,
Agree that the wealth of info is good for buyers who research prices over a period of time (can see that prices are falling or check what the seller paid). BUT, if a buyer has just begun looking for a house, he/she might not care or think to follow what housing prices are doing in recent history (M-O-M changes). That’s why it’s important to get negative Y-O-Y numbers. These are the numbers touted by the media all day, and are what Joe Sixpack follow (if they care at all).
While buyers have more info, so do the sellers. They know what the house across the street sold for last summer. In the “olden days” they would trust the Realtor (who knew the market was cooling) to recommend pricing. Now, these information warriors will insist on pricing at levels they **know** their homes are worth because, “that’s what my neighbor got, and my house is better.” I think the info technology can actually hold prices up longer as sellers refuse to acknowledge market forces (shift to buyers) and try to hold the market up themselves. I think it’s also why we see re-lists where sellers INCREASE the price, as if they feel they can convince buyers that prices are going up! Sellers feel more powerful as well.
I do, however, think this might only be a short-term situation. Once prices really begin to slide, they will get religion and race to the bottom, IMHO.
BTW, I think this is also why we have record inventories in many places even though we are just entering the downturn (higher inventories in a few places than the depths of past RE recessions).
The “list” prices aren’t budging because sellers have too much historical information and refuse to “give away” all the equity they counted on when their neighbors were selling at the peak of the market.
i posted a series of m-o-m price declines yesterday from the san fernando valley. yes, ALL march to april declines. i absolutely agree with you that mainstream media won’t jump on it until declines are y-o-y. i can’t wait to see the april to may numbers.
I think it will take two years to bottom out instead of four. The amount of bad mortgages out there is higher than it was during the 80’s and 90’s bubbles.
When all those ARMs reset, things are going to get ugly fast.
Plus, as RC suggested above, the internet (esp. this blog and its close relatives) will provide real-time feedback on the crash as it plays out, which will accelerate the correction.
I wish I was as confident in our fellow citizens. However, 1st they’d have to recognise or suspect they have been have been living an unsustainable environment and then go seeking the unpleasant facts on it. Considering how far along we are in this mess we have relatively few contributors to this site given the size of the American bubble unless there are far far more lurkers here than I assume. I may be overly pessimistic but I think the average joe sixpack is extremely poorly informed as to this debt/housing bubble and even worse has no desire to be informed as that is just too much work. I can only look at the current lending offers still going on as proof the message hasn’t got out.
There are tens of thousands of lurkers, but I agree, it isn’t common knowledge. I always think back on the Texas bust for bearing. At that point, market forces slammed everyone in the face. No public relations campaign was neccesary. If homes are over-priced, the market will adjust.
Tens of thousands? Awesome.
“In every revolution, there is one man with a vision!”
Star Trek, “Mirror, Mirror”
Mo Money,
Exactly. I just made a similar point above, before seeing yours.
“I think the average joe sixpack is extremely poorly informed as to this debt/housing bubble and even worse has no desire to be informed as that is just too much work.”
Mo Money, I agree with you that many Joe Sixpacks probably have no idea what’s coming, but when I bring it up among some of my well heeled friends (& husbands) they look at me pretty vacuously and almost never respond. They are probably aware of the raw information but I’m not sure I’d go as far as saying they’d processed it and accepted it as truth.
“Mo Money, I agree with you that many Joe Sixpacks probably have no idea what’s coming,”
If you were able to plot the histogram for human ability to predict future events, it most likely would be a typical bell curve.
The Joe SixPacks would populate the largest center portion of the sample. That is what defines them as the Joe SixPacks. It will always be that way, so there will always be a smaller sample on the leading edge of the bell curve that is able to see further ahead and profit from the later arrival of Joes when; as a light bulb simultaneously switches on in their collective heads, without their individual knowledge that they are not alone, they make moves like a school of mackeral.
I can’t help being joesixpack, and being in the center of the curve, I cannot think like those on the leading edge, so I try to compensate by figuring out what I will want to in the future, and otherwise mindlessly go there to await the arrival of my companions.
The revolution will not be televised!
….an orderly decline much like Mar. 2000 stocks. I wonder how orderly it will be as time goes by. Even the National Review,as conservative as can be is writing about the coming crash.
Still Reeling, Gulf Readies for New Storms
http://www.startribune.com/484/story/443190.html
I have an office in Long Beach (I do IT support). I was talking to a manager there and she bought a house in Moreno Valley about a year ago. She can’t afford to drive anymore, so she takes the train and it takes a lot longer to get there.
I also have an office in Santa Ana, near the train station. They are building lofts across the street, and the area is so ghetto. I can’t imagine living there even if you paid me to. I wonder what the cancellation rate is. I will try to find out. They are starting to build the second phase.
Read about Their site.
And by my Anaheim office, their building lots of condos there.
Read about Anaheim projects.
There will be a huge glut of condos in the very near future.
Read about If you can’t sell your home, rent it out as a vacation resort..
Geez, is it just me, or does there seem to be a rather large number of us in IT?
I dunno, I haven’t done it in quite some time.
FYI, today on Central Florida’s local news channel 13, there were hourly reports of the current homes-for-sale inventory:
http://www.cfnews13.com/StoryHeadline.aspx?id=15775
Inventory is
… over 16,000 as of April, compared to less than 3,000 one year ago. That is FIVE TIMES last year’s inventory, in Orlando, destination of everybody.
(Sorry about the clipped post — hit the wrong key).
Taxing developers green for cheap homes looks red to mayor
By Brittany Wallman
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
May 20, 2006
FORT LAUDERDALE · Mega-developers and the city’s mayor are shooting down a proposed affordable housing law, calling it unfair, communistic and doomed to failure. People could afford a place to live, the mayor said, if they were willing to work harder.
Mayor Jim Naugle, a conservative and brash politician serving his final term, said people mistakenly think they’re entitled to an affordable single-family house on a 40-hour work routine. They need to work more hours, and even then settle for a condo or townhouse, Naugle said.
“I’m supposed to subsidize some schlock sitting on the sofa and drinking a beer, who won’t work more than 40 hours a week?’’ he asked. “I deny that there is a problem. You can buy condos all day for $160,000.’’
Naugle’s comments may be contested by the working-class citizens who’ve told the city they want a home but can’t afford it. But his ideas might hit home in other circles, where a city proposal to make developers slash prices or pay a fee was met with skepticism.
“We ought to let the free market work,’’ said Bill Scherer, a lawyer-developer on the city’s Downtown Development Authority.
The proposal asks developers to give up big money — $1.5 million on a 100-condo complex, for example — for the theoretical good of the community. The city’s law, as drafted, would make residential developers pay for affordable housing, either by providing it within their housing complexes, or paying fees into a trust fund to subsidize housing for the middle class. Families making up to $69,720 — which is 20 percent more than the area’s median family income — would be eligible for a government boost.
New York has rent control. The federal government has Section 8 housing aid. So, this isn’t the first time government has gotten involved in the real estate market to help people afford a place to live.
South Florida’s cities only recently decided housing prices had reached crisis level highs, and Fort Lauderdale is one of the first to seriously attempt passing a law to do something about it. The city is under pressure from Broward County to pass a law; otherwise, the county says it won’t allow another wave of construction of thousands of condos downtown.
“The concept of this ordinance is from each according to his ability, to each according to need, which is the Communist Manifesto,’’ said Naugle, who calls the proposed law a “luxury housing tax.’’
“One person is working two or three jobs to get ahead and one person isn’t. Should we tax the person that’s working hard to get ahead, to pay for the one who isn’t?’’ he said.
Jim Carras, head of the private, nonprofit Broward Housing Partnership, countered the mayor’s Karl Marx rhetoric with a paraphrase from President Truman.
“`A decent place to live is the right of every American.’ We have maybe stepped away from how we fund it,but even the most conservative Republicans in Congress and the state legislature see a role for government,” said Carras.
Housing prices in Broward continue to shock some buyers. The median home price in Broward County in March — the price at which half the homes sell for more and half the homes sell for less — was $368,100 for a house and $202,600 for a condo.
Still, according to a recent study by Strategic Planning Group Inc., that means most condos are within financial reach of most buyers, though it might not be the size or location a buyer is seeking.
A debate about Fort Lauderdale’s proposed law might have been expected, considering what’s at stake.
“Gas is unaffordable. Now, do gas station owners need to go out and supply affordable gas?’’ said Doug Eagon, president of Stiles Corp., which built many of downtown’s big towers.
Developers said they would pass the costs to other buyers, leading to increased housing prices overall.
Major developers on the Downtown Development Authority originally supported the concept of an affordable housing regulation. But they don’t like the results. They want it rewritten to offer incentives to developers, and to spread the cost across the general public, by using tax dollars, for example.
The building industry is officially opposed. Brandon Biederman, director of government affairs for the Builders Association of South Florida, told the city that construction costs are going up, making the additional fees an even worse proposition.
A recent version of the law was soundly rejected by city commissioners last month and sent back for more public discussion and revamping.
City planning director Marc LaFerrier said he’s working on a new proposal, and it will likely be back in public debate June 6, at the City Commission’s conference meeting in the afternoon.
Great, now we’re going to legislate affordable housing? Why not just let this bubble take its course?
And why should any citizen be taxed (remember, the extraction from your wallet is at the point of a gun and that becomes, eventually, literal) so as to provide housing for another? Charities can do that, far more efficiently and with less intrusion.
Anyplace they have done this only exasperates the situation. Affordable housing laws are deceptive, they actually hurt the people they are trying to help. Unless you are going to build enough for EVERYONE who wants/needs one, you are punishing those who are not “lucky” enough to be on the lottery list. The people who are most hurt are middle class families that are too “rich” to qualify. They typically are more educated and earn more than the average, but make too little to rationally afford these ridiculous prices. Affordable housing programs lock them out and you are left with the bottom and the top, not a great situation.
Well put, OCM. Checked out the places they built on Irvine Center & Harvard. Low begin was like $550k. Of course, with a 6 figure income, and a 30fixed, I only qual for $310k. If I made less (about 15k less) I’d qualify for their moderate income program~@! Those programs are just gonna screw things up more.
“In looking at 1976, 1983 and 1990, when the housing market experienced “its worst points, right after a go-go period, cancellations might be at 25 percent and we’re nowhere near that today,” Leisch said. “We’ve returned to the norm.”
Hanley Wood’s survey showed the Sacramento area with the highest cancellation rate, 28 percent, up from 2.6 percent in March 2005. Rates in Las Vegas, Denver, Phoenix and Orange County, Calif., also were higher than those in the Washington area.”
Does anyone know what OC’s rate is?
I agree somewhat with the good mayor Naugle to a point. We have an entitlement bubble, too.
An entitlement bubble?
I thought it was about entitlement when the proportion of people affected was in the 10-12%. After that FDIC report saying 30% couldn’t even qualify for credit and then wondering what further proportion will be going under soon, I’m wondering:
is this really about entitlement or about failure as a society?
Think about how much inventory wasn’t put on the market that sellers wanted to put on the market this year .
Good point Wizard. THose folks feel ‘entitled’ to their price. And by darn, they are going to hold out until they get it. They won’t be able to sell for less. LOL Until the sheriff shows up to escort them out, to the nearest shantytown (the foreclosed home from a few weeks before, where the last 20 foreclosure FBers are also holed out.
Good point Wizard. THose folks feel ‘entitled’ to their price. And by darn, they are going to hold out until they get it. They won’t be able to sell for less. LOL Until the sheriff shows up to escort them out, to the nearest shantytown (the foreclosed home from a few weeks before, where the last 20 foreclosure FBers are also holed out.
Santa Rosa was the city that I escaped at the last possible moment. It’d be interesting to see where Press Democrat placed this article as I’ve caught them hiding bad RE news/data before.
well this data is no better. They have stated HALF the number of houses that are actually on the market. Their data has been fudged so often I don’t consider their articles legitimate. More like paid printed infomercials for the local RE industry.
Read about No Mortgage for a year.
Days of equity windfalls may have waned
http://dailynews.com/business/ci_3847238
Seller hopes model behavior will give homes lived-in appeal
http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_3847768
It’s like a scene from the movie The Sting. I guess they’re looking for marks. Very Creepy. “And it’s Blue Note…” (flick finger on nose).
For those who think Centex is going to just ride this wave and come out unscathed, I find it interesting just how many unsold homes they have in this subdivision and in the subdivisions in the two Florida articles that follow this one. They look to be stretched out all over the country with thousands upon thousands of unsold homes as we slide into the “correction.”
now that makes my day. what happens if the buyer returns for another look? different wife? different kids?
Don’t miss this news out of FL — “expert investors” getting burned by incredibly stupid pre-construction home purchases on the Treasure Coast. Profiles how one mortgage and real estate guy is going to take a bath on his latest “investment” … how almost 1 in 4 homes in a couple of these communities are for sale … and how a group of ladies decided a ways back how smart, profitable and “fun” it would be to take a trip to the sales office and snap up a bunch of townhomes. You can’t make this stuff up. What a bunch of “Darwin Award” nominees.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localnews/content/local_news/epaper/2006/05/21/c1a_INVESTORS__0521.html
great article - I like this quote:
“I was never much of an investor before this wild craze began, and somehow I backed into it,” Passarelli said.
I bet 6 months ago this clown was telling everybody that he was an investment genius. From hero to zero in the blink of an eye. Now multiply this situation by a million or so, and you have a pretty good idea how things will play out in FL. These folks coming in on the bottom rung of the pyramid are completely screwed. Better go back to selling weight-loss vitamins…
great article.
here come the lawsuits. they willingly gambled and lost yet they want to sue.
“Now, three of them are considering a lawsuit against Lennar and Centex, claiming the developers misrepresented how visible a nearby trailer park would be from their homes, and the fourth lost money on the home she finally managed to resell.”
Apparently, the thoughts of all their new found riches clouded these investers’ vision, so they weren’t able to see the trailer park themselves.
This is not entirely fair. If the sales agent actually told them that this was a “sure thing” there may be a leg to stand on. Stock brokers can’t get away with this sort of thing, and I doubt that homebuilders can, either.
where’s that “…Florida is working off of a new set of dynamics until now unseen…” quote when we need it?
Buyers control home market
Sellers now hope neighbors hold line
From the News-Press in Fort Myers, FL
http://tinyurl.com/qde6b
Loaded w/ great quotes like this one:
“With everyone dropping prices, it hurts everybody,” Lisa Oliver said.
Yeah, everybody except the buyers Lisa.
“There are no stinking buyers around here and these people are panic-stricken — everyone can smell the fear,” Elentrio said. “If you don’t have to sell, now is not the time.”
buyers?
buyers???
we don’t neeeeed no stinking buyers!!
Almost forgot, according to a realtor quoted in the article, there are over 50,000 homes for sale in Lee County alone.
Uh, Oh! Good thing hurricane season isn’t just around the corner.
“There are no stinking buyers around here and these people are panic-stricken — everyone can smell the fear,” Elentrio said. “If you don’t have to sell, now is not the time.”
I love the quotes in this article, many like this one, from realtors.
The price of homes in Orlando will increase 6K in
one day, but not why you think..
Just another knife in the back for housing!
http://tinyurl.com/ndnvc
I dunno, ZipRealty seems to need updating. The comparisons I’m making (in Tucson) between listed homes and Zip prices, I’m finding the ZipRealty prices are about 22% infalted. Any chance the Zip site is “powered by” Trolls? BTW I just signed a 1 year lease on a 2bd 2ba $711 / mo. apartment
Slightly OT but this was online this morning:
http://news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060521/NEWS01/605210428/1076
And so it begins…