June 12, 2012

Driving Up Prices And Increasing Demand

The Cape Gazette reports from Delaware. “More than 200 Delaware Realtors from all three counties rallied on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., in support of the housing industry. They were part of an estimated 15,000 Realtors from across the country that converged on the grounds of the Washington Monument May 17 for The Rally to Protect the American Dream. ‘It is impressive that Realtors feel so passionately about the importance of homeownership that four buses from Delaware joined others from across the country to have the largest gathering of Realtors ever in one place in the nation’s capital,’ said Todd Stonesifer, president of the Delaware Association of Realtors. ‘Polling shows that over 80 percent of homeowners still believe that homeownership is a good investment. No one dreams of being a tenant.’”

The Gazette in Maryland. “Housing advocates and state lawmakers are hoping an almost $60 million payout as the result of a settlement with the nation’s five biggest mortgage lenders will assist in curbing the state’s foreclosure crisis. ‘I think this will help in a significant way in terms of reducing housing inventory in Maryland and helping people stay in their homes,’ said Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler (D).”

The Somerset Herald in Maryland. “Homebuyers in Somerset County and other targeted areas of the state will be able to take advantage of lower interest rates in the Maryland Mortgage Program, devised as a way to stimulate the housing market. Department of Housing and Community Development officials planned to announce today a drop in the interest rate to 2.875 percent. ‘It’s to assist people to get back into home ownership,’ said Bill Ariano, deputy director for the Community Development Administration, which runs the mortgage program. The 30-year fixed rate mortgages are available to anyone purchasing a house in a targeted area regardless of whether they are first-time buyers, he said.”

“‘That’s awesome,’ said Cindy Stevens, owner of Wilson Realty in Crisfield. ‘That will help us quite a bit.’ Lower interest rates could help sellers, too, by driving up prices and increasing demand, Stevens said.”

“The state has $30 million available for mortgages at the lower interest rates, which was raised through the sale of tax-exempt bonds. ‘We will hold at that rate — no matter what the real estate market does — until the $30 million is gone,’ Ariano said.”

“Maryland’s housing market continued to recover in May, so much so that one report on Monday cited a potential seller’s market this summer in the area that includes Montgomery and Prince George’s counties.”

“‘Inventory in the Washington region continues to shrink,’ says the report by RealEstate Business Intelligence, a subsidiary of Metropolitan Regional Information Systems of Rockville. ‘This price gain reflects the fourth consecutive year-over-year gain, and the second consecutive double-digit [percentage] increase for home prices in the region.’”

“Active inventory statewide was down 26 percent in May from a year ago. Montgomery County had a 21 percent jump in sales in May compared with a year earlier, and a 12 percent rise in median sales price to almost $400,000. Howard County saw a 40 percent leap in sales and the same median price of $365,000.”

“Sellers who have realistic expectations of what the market will bear have had good success, said Erik Windrow, an agent with Prudential PenFed Realtors in Ocean City. ‘I’ve been thoroughly pleased with this year so far,’ he said. ‘Last year, I was equally as busy. And it was a fantastic year for me.’”

“Many people buy homes in the Ocean City area as investments, Windrow said.”

The Washington Post. “Fairfax County will commit more than $500 million for subsidized housing in Tysons Corner but has yet to figure out how to pay for transportation and other infrastructure, a Republican supervisor said Wednesday. Supervisor Pat Herrity (Springfield), returning to a theme that has triggered the most persistent and heated clashes on the Democratic-led board, said the county should reconsider policies that require developers to contribute to workforce housing and other initiatives that he deems nonessential.”

“Instead, Herrity called for a return to the days when developers shouldered the expenses of transportation infrastructure in exchange for county approval to construct more dwellings, offices and stores on a site. ‘We’re putting a half-a-billion dollars into subsidized housing for people making $70,000 to $120,000 a year instead of handling a lot of our most important priorities, such as transportation in Tysons Corner,’ said Herrity.”

“Herrity has been especially critical of workforce housing subsidies for families that earn as much as 120 percent of the area median income, which is set by the federal government and is now $107,500 for a family of four. But supporters of such initiatives, including Chairman Sharon Bulova (D), argue that affordable housing initiatives cost taxpayers little but return substantial benefits. Providing affordable housing for teachers, firefighters and low- income families means that fewer of those workers will jam the roads commuting from less expensive homes in neighboring jurisdictions. Segregating lower-income people into enclaves can also concentrate some of the problems associated with poverty.”

“‘Pat’s objections are beginning to sound like a broken record,’ Bulova said Wednesday. ‘It looks like a not very scientific analysis of what the costs are for housing in Tysons.’”

The Falls Church News Press in Virginia. “Dr. Lisa Sturtevant of the George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis and Ken Billingsley, director of demographics of the Northern Virginia Regional Commission, made back-to-back presentations to members of Falls Church’s Economic Development Authority (EDA) and Planning Commission in what will be more fully reported in next week’s News-Press. In response to a question, Dr. Sturtevant was to indicate strongly that, quite different than the prevailing wisdom of the recent past, it is now recognized that residential housing construction is the key to economic development.”

“Citing the report last weekend in the Post on Washington D.C.’s efforts in this regard, and mirroring a lot of what was done in Arlington around the Metro stations, she said that the common view that commercial development is the key to bringing in new business is now ‘being turned on its head.’ ‘Companies come to where the workers are now,’ she said. The workforce decides where it wants to live, and the companies that want them follow them there.”

“Billingsley’s presentation showed a remarkable gap in the demographics of Falls Church, its lack of a significant population of 20-to-45-year olds. In fact, the City has the lowest percentage of its total population from that age group of any jurisdiction in Northern Virginia. So, here’s the rub: Falls Church has the highest median household values in all of Virginia, and the 11th highest in the U.S. It has no significant housing stock that workers in the 20-to-45 age range can afford, much less even lower cost housing for those needed for jobs serving new residents.”

“D.C.’s thrust for growth is to promote new, smaller rental housing units. It sounds like a plan that will work.”

The Virginian Pilot. “While the sales market for high-end homes in Hampton Roads is struggling to regain its footing, the rental market for those same homes is booming, real estate experts said. Part of the pickup in high-end rentals could be a result of the region’s foreclosure problem. Vinod Agarwal, an economist at Old Dominion University said he’s seen foreclosures happening at all price ranges. ‘If you get foreclosed on, you may not be able to buy a home even if you have a lot of cash coming in,’ he said. ‘If you can’t buy a good house, what would you do? You rent a good house. And the home-owners may not be as concerned about your credit rating as they are about your cash flow.’”

“Lending requirements for homes that require a jumbo mortgage are also stringent, said Steve Rockefeller, a mortgage banker in Virginia Beach. A jumbo loan in Hampton Roads is for any mortgage higher than $458,850. A typical buyer would need at least 20 percent as a down payment on a home in that price category, said Rockefeller.”

“For homeowners such as Bob Brunner, the demand for high-end rentals is welcome news. He had the home custom-built in 2006. But recently his wife, who is in the military, was transferred to the Memphis, Tenn., area. The 51-year-old retired Navy service member said he didn’t want to try to sell in a sluggish real estate market. ‘In this market, you really take it in the socks,’ he said. ‘My neighbors who have their home for sale already had to reduce the house $50,000.’”

“Roy Scott, a property manager for Rose & Womble Realty Co who has worked in the local rental market for nearly 20 years, said he has never seen things so busy. ‘You would think that if someone can afford that much in rent, they could afford to purchase a home,’ Scott said. ‘But they choose to rent, instead.’”

“Among those renters is John Shutack, a 42-year-old neurosurgeon who recently decided to move his family to Virginia Beach from St. Simons Island, Ga. ‘The reason we’re renting, quite honestly, is we have a home here in Georgia that we’re not so sure how long it’s going to take us to sell,’ he said.”

“The place he found was an 8,451-square-foot home in Virginia Beach’s Green Hill Farm neighborhood on the market for $5,000 a month. The owner of the home had tried unsuccessfully to sell the property between 2008 and 2010, listing it for about $1.18 million. ‘We didn’t really need an 8,000-square-foot with a pool,’ Shutack said. ‘I don’t think anyone does, but it just so happens that this place worked out.’”

“Hundreds of feet above Commerce Street at the Westin Virginia Beach Town Center, a 2,700-square-foot condo is up for rent for $8,000 a month. The condo, which has been on the rental market since December, is owned by former Virginia Beach residents Richard and Fay Kline. The Klines have tried for a year to sell the home. They put the condo on the market in March 2011 for $2.19 million. A year later, the property was relisted for $998,000.”

“John Savino, the agent with Prudential Towne Realty marketing the property, said the couple want to sell the property but have it up for rent to see whether there is any interest. ‘He is in Florida. He has no intention of coming back permanently,’ Savino said. ‘His children do not want it.’ But the hot rental market on the high end hasn’t reached as high as the Klines’ penthouse. So far, the property hasn’t had any takers.”




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50 Comments »

Comment by Realtors Are Liars
2012-06-12 08:27:21

From the Cape Gazette article….. Bought and paid for Senator and Realtor Johnny Isuckson was there……

Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-GA, and Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-MD, addressed the crowd of Realtors at the event. Isakson said, “Homeownership always has been, and remains to this day, a part of the American dream. It is the biggest and most important investment that the average American family makes, and that’s why we should remain focused on the value of the housing market and the important role it plays in our country. It is my hope that this rally encourages Congress and the president to move forward with policies that are supportive of housing, which is vital to job creation and the recovery of our economy.”

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-12 08:57:54

“More than 200 Delaware Realtors from all three counties rallied on the National Mall in Washington, D.C., in support of the housing industry. They were part of an estimated 15,000 Realtors from across the country that converged on the grounds of the Washington Monument May 17 for The Rally to Protect the American Dream.”

The Million Realtors® March?

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-12 08:59:10

“Housing advocates and state lawmakers are hoping an almost $60 million payout as the result of a settlement with the nation’s five biggest mortgage lenders will assist in curbing the state’s foreclosure crisis.”

You can’t dress a gunshot wound with a pinky-sized bandage.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-06-12 09:10:21

The “story” is the same everywhere. Even in the Detroit Free Press they’re touting a “seller’s market.” There is always a footnote about shadow inventory. I’m excited to see the carnage.

Comment by Lisa
2012-06-12 10:01:51

Same for parts of the Bay Area. A friend is looking to buy on the Peninsula, which is apparently awash in IPO / VC money. Houses going into contract the minute they hit the market.

I don’t get it.

My neighbor finally sold, their house was on the market for 9 months last year, no takers, this year, went into contract on day #1. They are losing money (house listed for almost $200K less than they paid for it in 2005), young couple buying it, first house.

Why anyone would be making the plunge these days is beyond, me, especially after our Golden State just announced almost 2x the deficit announced a few months ago. Plus the federal mess, plus Europe, plus China. Yikes.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-12 18:32:31

“They are losing money (house listed for almost $200K less than they paid for it in 2005), young couple buying it, first house.

Why anyone would be making the plunge these days is beyond, me,…”

I think you may have answered your own question. If you can find the rare seller who is willing to price to market (e.g. dropping the sale price to $200K below 2005 prices), then it might be worth the risk of making the plunge.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2012-06-12 10:07:04

Well, yeah, and how is this possible? Every market is crying, ‘we got no inventory!’ And the media can’t connect the dots and ask, how does this happen all over the country, at the same time?

You’re right about how shadow inventory is often mentioned. So again, media, how do we see REO inventory drop, all across the country, just after the robo-signing settlement is reached and many thousands of units should have gone on the market? This when most market research firms are saying millions of houses are in the pipeline. Millions!

Comment by Lisa
2012-06-12 10:38:39

“Well, yeah, and how is this possible? Every market is crying, ‘we got no inventory!’ And the media can’t connect the dots and ask, how does this happen all over the country, at the same time?”

Yep, only a few forums in the blogsphere are connecting the dots.

I had a chat with the agent who sold my neighbor’s house, and even he was shaking his head about people paying these prices in the face of elevated unemployment, continued layoffs, shadow inventory, fiscal implosions, etc.

For those of us who are still renting, though, everyone who is buying now or has bought recently will be one less buyer to compete with when the dust finally settles. These folks will be trapped for a long time to come.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-06-12 11:23:09

The 51-year-old retired Navy service member said he didn’t want to try to sell in a sluggish real estate market. ‘In this market, you really take it in the socks,’ he said. ‘My neighbors who have their home for sale already had to reduce the house $50,000.’

The above points to another piece of the shadow inventory puzzle. And that is the stock of houses owned by people who don’t want to sell right now.

Why not? Because the houses won’t sell at the wishing prices that their owners so ardently desire.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2012-06-12 11:32:36

And the rubber will meet the road for these folks when raw land starts to get developed into new homes at prices less than their “wishing” prices, making it more and more clear that their “wishing” prices are a dream that will take decades to be fulfilled (if ever).

Everyone keep looking for earthmovers pushing around dirt on raw land…once that happens, reality will begin to dawn on these holdouts.

 
Comment by oxide
2012-06-12 13:30:28

Happening already outside of DC. The local you-pick orchard used have just fields across the road. Last summer developers began pushing dirt around a couple hundred acres. On Saturday, right on the road there were four brand-new model McMansions that had been built during the winter, all ready to receive new buyers. Ugly….

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-06-12 16:39:08

And right now Ox, where would you say prices are relative to peak? Off 30%? More? Less?

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-06-12 10:59:42

Ben,

Yesterday I was looking at Trulia, and it looked like a huge percentage of homes on the market in some cities were distressed (Stockton was over 80%, Phoenix over 70%, Miami at 66%). This at least implies that Core Logic’s report released yesterday could be right…that the lack of inventory may at least be partially tied to NON-institutional owners keeping their homes off the market (being unwilling/unable to sell at today’s prices).

With this as a possibility, and with the distressed listings on Trulia, you can’t look simply to lack of inventory on the market as evidence of institutions holding back. That activity (holding back) should result in data elsewhere, I’m trying to find that resultant data. Sincere question…where would you look?

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-06-12 11:27:09

Something like this is posted almost every day:

‘The 51-year-old retired Navy service member said he didn’t want to try to sell in a sluggish real estate market…The condo, which has been on the rental market since December, is owned by former Virginia Beach residents Richard and Fay Kline. The Klines have tried for a year to sell the home. They put the condo on the market in March 2011 for $2.19 million. A year late’ the property was relisted for $998,000.’

‘Question: In a recent column you stated that under Arizona’s anti-deficiency statutes there can never be a deficiency after a trustee’s sale foreclosure of a mortgage loan on a home. I am a second-year law student whose parents refinanced their original mortgage loan of $120,000 on their Glendale home.’

‘Their new mortgage loan was $180,000, and they received cash of $60,000 beyond that needed to pay off the original $120,000 mortgage loan. Specifically, my parents used the cash of $60,000 to help pay for my college and law school tuition.’

‘My parents’ home is now underwater and they have stopped making their mortgage payments. I would love to verify that a trustee’s sale foreclosure wipes out the obligation to pay back any cash received at refinancing used to pay for a child’s tuition, or to pay off credit card debt, or to pay for a Las Vegas vacation.’

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2012/05/30/20120530combs-arizona-no-ruling-cash-out-loans.html#ixzz1xbYvYrXM

‘from Abigail Field over at Firedog Lake: ‘Phoenix: RealtyTrac identifies 6,611 ‘bank-owned’ properties there. An Arizona realty website lists only 275 for sale. Similarly, Yahoo real estate claims there’s over 8,000 foreclosure properties in Phoenix, but Realtor.com lists less than 4,000 homes of any type. AZHomeonline.net lists a bit over 4,000, plus 312 foreclosures and shortsales. So are the foreclosures in Phoenix on the order of 300 or 6,600? Makes a wee bit of difference when the non-’distressed’ market is about 4,000, don’t you think?’

‘Phoenix isn’t the only place where banks are holding properties off the market. In Portland, Oregon, banks aren’t selling 80% of the homes they own, The Oregonian reports. All the bank owned inventory statewide represents more than a year and half’s supply of houses all by itself, according to a RealtyTrac executive quoted in the piece. If the housing inventory is that distorted in Oregon, what’s it like in the hardest hit states?’

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=7203

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Comment by Rental Watch
2012-06-12 11:58:42

Thanks.

I’m trying the best I can to get to the source data. I’m finding that the numbers vary widely. For instance, Trulia lists 17,048 homes for sale if you type in “Phoenix, AZ”, which is bigger than all the sites noted above (combined)…are there duplicates listed in Trulia?

Of those, they claim 12,313 homes are in “foreclosure” (auction, REO). Meaning ~4,700 non-distressed sellers…that seems to match-up with the numbers above.

Of those 12,313, 6,528 are noted as “bank owned”, with lots of those linking to Realty Trac.

Just so I’m clear…are the 6,500+ homes noted as REO actually listed for sale? Are there duplicates on Trulia? Or are they simply tracked as REO, with the actual number of homes for sale in the 300 range?

Trulia implies that the 6,500 are actually listed for sale, which would imply that the website listing 300 REO homes for sale doesn’t have full visibility to what is actually listed.

So that is one unanswered question…6,500 or 300 REO actually listed for sale in Phoenix?

I know lots of people have tried to get bank’s attention (to no avail) for short sales. Has anyone pursued an REO that is supposedly for sale (as noted by Trulia) only to find that it wasn’t actually for sale?

Aside from the listing numbers, holding back of inventory/slowing foreclosures should result in more homes as REO/non-current loans/foreclosure pipeline.

In places like Arizona, I’m not seeing this from the sources I often cite (LPS and Foreclosure Radar). Judicial states are a different story.

If banks are holding back inventory, why is it not showing up in stagnating (or growing) levels of REO or non-current loans? This is the most troublesome (lack of) data as I look at the scant inventory theories.

Is there something else going on?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-06-12 12:05:30

I just answered a key part of this conundrum…if you click through on one of the REO homes on Trulia, you get to another page…the applicable quote:

“REOs are most likely to also be listed for sale with a real estate agent on the MLS, but not all REOs are listed yet — meaning buyers may have to contact the lender or servicer directly to make an offer.”

The 6,500 homes listed on Trulia as for sale…are not necessarily listed for sale…wow…

 
Comment by Housing Is Falling Into A Bottomless MoonCrater
2012-06-12 12:08:33

Who cares about Phoenix? Their next leg down is into a bottomless moon crater.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2012-06-12 12:09:13

Rental Watch: You’re looking for evidence of shadow inventory. Here’s a story from last Friday:

“The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHA) is expected to announce before the close of business today a new bulk sale program to liquidate some of the reported 700,000 delinquent loans they insure. According to The Wall Street Journal, the agency may be planning on selling as many as 5,000 distressed loans each quarter over an unspecified period of time.”

Link

So, that’s just FHA trying to offload those loans in a trickle. They’re only selling to big investors and only allowing those investors to sell 50% of the houses they buy within 3 years.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2012-06-12 12:18:36

‘REOs are most likely to also be listed for sale with a real estate agent on the MLS’

In larger AZ markets like Phoenix and Tucson, this isn’t true. No one can say for sure, but it might be as low as 10% are on the MLS.

Here’s another thing I’ve seen first hand; I’ll see an abandoned house. It’s got say, Fannie Mae papers in the window, Fannie Mae locks. It’s got inspection sheets inside, signed by contractors and UHS. Then the signatures stop at some point. I’ve contacted Fannie Mae directly, and they’ll say, nope, ain’t ours. Then I’ll check the tax rolls, and sure enough, it’s still listed as owned by the FB. No taxes being paid of course. It’s just there, in limbo. That house isn’t going to show up in most data. I’ve seen one case where a house had been in that condition for three years, falling apart the whole time.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-06-12 12:50:01

What a f’ing disaster…

 
Comment by JoeMomma
2012-06-12 14:00:16

And to think people were suggesting we privatize social security. At this point it should be perfectly clear that private companies are just as incompetent as the government. And in many cases, more.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-06-12 14:03:11

Then I’ll check the tax rolls, and sure enough, it’s still listed as owned by the FB.

I recently checked on a nearby two-house property. It was foreclosed and resold, but the county assessor records still showed as being owned by the guy who bought it as an in-VEST-ment, then walked away when his dreams of riches were unrealized.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-06-12 14:05:20

So:

1. Financial institutions are trickling REO inventory onto the market; and
2. Despite doing so, overall levels of non-current loans are falling in many states, and stagnant in others (decreasing in non-judicial states and flattish in judicial states).

Does that sound about right?

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2012-06-12 15:01:00

I don’t think it’s possible to know what exactly is happening at any given time. There’s just too much that’s not disclosed. What I do know is that there are a bunch of REO’s out there.

RW, I don’t follow what every poster is trying to do. Do you just want to know for the sake of knowing? If you are trying to buy something, I can’t say what exactly I’m doing but I tell people just be aware that the manipulation is occurring. If an area is experiencing multiple offers, I would move on. It’ll come down. When you think the numbers pencil out, stick to your guns and don’t pay too much. If most of the people out there would do that, they could manipulate all they want and it wouldn’t do them any good.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-06-12 15:32:18

I tell people just be aware that the manipulation is occurring. If an area is experiencing multiple offers, I would move on. It’ll come down. When you think the numbers pencil out, stick to your guns and don’t pay too much.

Best. Advice. Ever.

Thanks, Ben!

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-06-12 16:17:56

I bought last year, found the place that will last my family a long time, and I was lucky enough to do so off market, where I was able to negotiate one-on-one without a bidding situation, and put a healthy amount down. I felt the price I paid was fair, and will work for me and my family for a long time to come.

At this point, I’m trying to get a feel for the dynamics of the real estate market because in the US, I see the development of shelter as a basic need for our growing population as a currently missing driver of economic activity and jobs that have been missing from this recovery. A precursor to those jobs coming back to any extent is the clearing of the distressed inventory combined with an improvement in confidence.

The trajectory of general economic recovery will be in large part determined by the housing market (new development), which will be determined by how the shadow inventory is dealt with in these markets. So, I’m grinding through as much data as possible to get a feel for what is happening in the various markets, specifically with respect to distressed housing.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2012-06-12 17:53:00

‘The trajectory of general economic recovery will be in large part determined by the housing market (new development)’

That’s the REIC line, but I don’t agree. Houses follow growth, not the other way around. IMO, any recovery will come as resources are redirected to productive, sustainable parts of the economy.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-06-12 18:13:38

“any recovery will come as resources are redirected to productive, sustainable parts of the economy.”

I agree with this statement.

But it sounds like we’ll disagree on my next statement.

When you combine population growth and replacement of existing structures, 1 to 1.2MM housing units being built per year is sustainable, and necessary to provide shelter to the population. As we sit today, the amount of new development is unsustainably low (eventually there will need to be more development).

All that said, as we reach “normal”, shouldn’t providing shelter be part of a healthy and sustainable economy?

Said another way, isn’t building shelter both productive and sustainable if done right (not too much, not too expensive)?

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2012-06-12 18:35:04

‘isn’t building shelter both productive and sustainable’

Not any more than the furniture we put inside. Or cars, or vacations. It’s a possible sign of a healthy economy, not a basis of wealth creation.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-12 19:23:18

“I would love to verify that a trustee’s sale foreclosure wipes out the obligation to pay back any cash received at refinancing used to pay for a child’s tuition, or to pay off credit card debt, or to pay for a Las Vegas vacation.”

Is it really legal to use mortgage loan proceeds to pay for a child’s tuition, or to pay off credit card debt, or to pay for a Las Vegas vacation?

Call me skeptical if you will, but I have my serious doubts.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-12 19:29:35

“It’s just there, in limbo. That house isn’t going to show up in most data. I’ve seen one case where a house had been in that condition for three years, falling apart the whole time.”

I tried to explain the concept of ‘houses in limbo’ to my wife’s cousin’s husband last night, while we were on an after-dinner stroll. He has a nice job here in San Diego, with an office within a few miles of where we live, but he and his wife so far prefer to live in Utah, where the housing is far cheaper.

At first it seemed as though he wasn’t understanding my point, but I was pleasantly surprised when the conversation switched over to the tale of his Realtor® mom’s experience investing in four houses, on the premise that ‘real estate always goes up, only to later go BK. He acknowledged that her story is most likely but one of many. Turns out he ‘got it’ after all!

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-12 20:43:41

“At this point it should be perfectly clear that private companies are just as incompetent as the government. And in many cases, more.”

And in many cases, more unscrupulous. A standard private sector business model appears to be, ‘make as much money as possible, subject to the constraint that no top managers go to prison.’ And when a company makes enough to hire the best legal defense money can buy, they can basically buy justice to rule out those prison terms.

 
Comment by A Realtor Chewed My Face Off®
2012-06-12 20:46:03

Isn’t it interesting that RentalWatch repeatedly invokes “population growth” yet the truth is the population growth is the lowest in US History. Furthermore, immigration is flat to almost negative and the birth rate is lowest in US history.

It’s looking like our friend “Rental Watch” is underwater and drowning.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-12 20:48:36

“If an area is experiencing multiple offers, I would move on. It’ll come down. When you think the numbers pencil out, stick to your guns and don’t pay too much.”

To play the devil’s advocate for a moment, what is to stop the PTB from withholding inventory and propping up prices indefinitely? In the long run we are all dead. At that point, waiting it out for a while longer is no longer an option.

“If most of the people out there would do that, they could manipulate all they want and it wouldn’t do them any good.”

Too bad there are still enough people with buckets of money (federally guaranteed!) and boxes of stupid, who continue to help manipulation pay off.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-12 21:30:17

“…population growth is the lowest in US History…”

Yup. RW obviously is a newbie, as I have posted on this many times over the past several years.

 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-12 17:10:47

“So again, media, how do we see REO inventory drop, all across the country, just after the robo-signing settlement is reached and many thousands of units should have gone on the market? This when most market research firms are saying millions of houses are in the pipeline. Millions!”

Got collusion?

 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-06-12 09:12:54

“But supporters of such initiatives, including Chairman Sharon Bulova (D), argue that affordable housing initiatives cost taxpayers little but return substantial benefits.”

Of course it doesn’t cost anything. Money’s free. Just print more of it when you run out.

 
Comment by Malfunction Junction
2012-06-12 10:21:59

Tysons Corner: We had a studio apartment in the early 1980s about two miles east of there. The purchase price was around $17,000. I remember repainting it and it was resold for around $33,000 a few years later. Today that same unit is overinflated into the $200,000 range.

Comment by Realtors Are Swindlers®
2012-06-12 10:43:36

Considering Tysons Corners is commutable to Malfunction Central, Evil Axis of NY/DC GovCorp, this is no surprise.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-06-12 11:24:18

Tysons Corner: We had a studio apartment in the early 1980s about two miles east of there. The purchase price was around $17,000. I remember repainting it and it was resold for around $33,000 a few years later. Today that same unit is overinflated into the $200,000 range.

All the more reason to get back into the market and snap it up right now!

 
 
Comment by Grim Reaper
2012-06-12 10:50:54

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Association_of_Realtors#Contributions_to_political_campaigns

The NAR wields substantial power as a lobbying organization on behalf of agents and brokers; in 2005, NAR had the largest Political Action Committee in the United States. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the association is the United States’ third-largest donor to political campaigns, having given since 1990 more than US$30 million. Of this sum, an average of 47% has gone to Democrats and 53% to Republicans.[16] Key political issues for the group revolve around federal regulation of the financial services industry.

Bought and paid for whores and criminals in Congress….. Pimped by the most corrupt organization on the planet.

(Don’t tell me your whore hasn’t been bought and paid for. ALL of them are bought and paid for, irrespective of party)

 
Comment by Grim Reaper
2012-06-12 10:56:34

The NAR backs a weekly 2-hour radio program entitled Real Estate Today hosted by Gil Gross. The show includes a 3-minute segment reporting on market conditions at the bottom of each hour, optional for stations to air.[17] The program is produced by Media Syndication Services and distributed by Premiere Radio Networks,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Association_of_Realtors#Radio

Premier Radio Network Owner: Bain Capital

Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-06-12 11:40:53

“Premier Radio Network Owner: Bain Capital”

Recipients of NAR money through 2010:

Linda T Puller (Democrat - VA) $25,900
J Shawn Mitchell (Democrat - VA) $24,900
Democrat Senate Campaign Committee: $145,000
Florida Democratic Party: $105,000
Georgia Democratic Party: $25,500
Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee: $25,000
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee : $36,760

Right you are. Those dastardly Republicans with their evil Bain money are bought and paid for by the real estate industry!!!

Comment by Grim Reaper
2012-06-12 11:49:24

Still pandering for the duopoly huh? You’re pathetic.

Comment by MissmouseAZ
2012-06-13 15:16:48

Only 25,000? That’s pretty paltry, in the larger scheme of things.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Grim Reaper
2012-06-12 11:02:27

Have you all heard of the Realtor Party and its’ RPAC?

http://www.realtoractioncenter.com/realtor-party/

Here’s the candidate list

http://www.realtoractioncenter.com/rpac/disbursements/RPAC-supported-candidates-2010.pdf

If your Sens and Reps are on this list, they are bought and paid for whores. They are working against you and your family.

 
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-06-12 17:44:30

“We’re putting a half-a-billion dollars into subsidized housing for people making $70,000 to $120,000 a year”

Ummm…wait, you’re doing what for who?? Oh, okay, wait a second…what???

Kirk to Enterprise, come in…

Comment by 2banana
2012-06-12 21:15:53

TOTAL INSANITY.

A half billion dollars of tax payer money to subsidize housing for people making $120,000/year??????

Yep - austerity and cutting government spending would rip this county apart.

‘We’re putting a half-a-billion dollars into subsidized housing for people making $70,000 to $120,000 a year instead of handling a lot of our most important priorities, such as transportation in Tysons Corner,’ said Herrity.”

Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-06-12 22:22:09

Also, what would be their first clue that housing costs are getting out of line with incomes? You would think that even the idea of subsidies for this income range would be some kind of a red flag.

 
 
 
Comment by doom
2012-06-13 08:59:54

As a former business owner with a lot of former contacts I of know many people who defaulted at least two months on their mortgage and they haven’t heard a peep from the bank yet.

Of course this is all a supply and demand rouse that the housing and banking industry is famous for in the past and now in the present.

This time the house of cards is going to crash, a tremendous amount of inventory must be dealt with and sweeping it under the carpet (not really a carpet) but Mount Everest of problems.

After the election no matter who gets they will use the word recession again which is was just a nicer word for depression that could happen.

 
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