Bits Bucket for June 19, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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The drawn out Eurozone mess feels like the movie Groundhog day.
Wait until someone decides to redraw border lines. :-/
[Those quiet $wiss will have a 360 degree view!]
CoreLogic’s Shadow Inventory
By Barry Ritholtz - April 4th, 2012, 12:00PM
Since we are looking closely at RE issues this week, I wanted to take a look at CoreLogic’s most recent report on residential shadow inventory (January 2012).
Note that CoreLogic has a much more restrictive definition of Shadow Inventory than some other folks (including myself) do. They create an estimate of “Pending Supply” by calculating the number of distressed properties not currently listed on multiple listing services (MLSs) that are seriously delinquent, in foreclosure as well as real estate owned (REO) by lenders.
That formula yields them a count of 1.6 million units — or about a 6-month supply at current sales rates.
Other key data points CoreLogic:
• As of January 2012, shadow inventory remained at 1.6 million units, or 6-months’ supply and represented half of the 3 million properties currently seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or REO.
• Of these 1.6 million properties, 800,000 units are seriously delinquent (3.1-months’ supply), 410,000 are in some stage of foreclosure (1.6-months’ supply) and 400,000 are already in REO (1.6-months’ supply).
• Florida, California and Illinois account for more than a third of the shadow inventory.
• The top six states, which would also include New York, Texas and New Jersey, account for half of the shadow inventory.
• The shadow inventory is approximately four times higher than its low point (380,000 properties) at the peak of the housing bubble in mid-2006.
• Despite 3 million distressed sales since January 2009, the period when home prices were declining at their fastest rate, the shadow inventory in January 2012 is at the same level as January 2009.
• The shadow inventory is approximately half of the size of all visible inventory listings. For every two homes available for sale, there is one home in the “shadows.”
• The segment of borrowers that were 60+ days delinquent in the past but were “cured” and are now current on their payments is increasing. This figure was 7.2 percent in January 2012 up from 5.7percent a year ago.
• The total percent of borrowers who were ever 60+ days delinquent (irrespective of delinquency status today) increased to 15.5 percent in January 2012, up from 14.3 percent a year ago.
• The highest concentration of shadow inventory is for loans with loan balances between $100,000 and $125,000 (Figure 5).
• More importantly while the overall supply of homes in the shadow inventory is declining versus a year ago, the declines are being driven by higher balance loans. For loans with balances of $75,000 or less, however, the shadow is still growing and is up 3 percent from a year ago.
That’s probably more than you ever wanted to know about Shadow Inventory . . .
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04/corelogics-shadow-inventory/ - 61k -
IMO what’s important is that there even is such a thing as shadow inventory. Why don’t we have a shadow inventory count of used cars, or office space? It indicates foul dealing on the part of these lenders, and that’s what matters. Buyer beware.
I’m not so sure that it represents a big problem for potential purchasers, after all, if you intend to live there for 10 years or more, I don’t think that moment to moment supply and demand is as big a consideration as do you like to live there. But I suspect that it DOES represent balance sheet fraud by somebody. I wouldn’t want to be buying MBS or stock in financial companies at this point. WAY too much in the way of unrecognized losses stuffed into every hidy hole that creative accounting can find.
” …WAY too much in the way of unrecognized losses stuffed into every hidy hole that creative accounting can find.”
Define: “Profe$$ional”
The Fed told them to do this.
Completely dependent on a bounce back happening before real price discovery takes place.
Really should ask Japan about that….
There are three factors working against housing - demographics, student loans (non-dischargeable in bankruptcy), and globalization.
I see none of the factors abating any time soon.
(And I’m not even counting the shadow inventory.)
“…globalization…”
What about the all-cash investors from China, Canada, wherever? How does this facet of globalization hurt housing?
“I’m not so sure that it represents a big problem for potential purchasers, after all, if you intend to live there for 10 years or more, I don’t think that moment to moment supply and demand is as big a consideration as do you like to live there.”
Read the fantastic tale I posted at the end of the other thread today to find out how wrong this logic is. People who stretch to buy now may find themselves 30% underwater on their purchase price in a few years — no big deal if you just buy a house you can easily afford as a place to live, but a potential financial catastrophe if you stretch to buy now, only to later experience personal financial hardship which leads you into foreclosure and massive financial loss.
Never before was ‘let the buyer beware’ a more resonant message.
“I wouldn’t want to be buying MBS or stock in financial companies at this point.”
I buy a little bit every couple of weeks. I really don’t pay much attention to whether the price goes up or down these days, as I trust the volatility will average itself out over a long-term series of small stock market investments.
By contrast, if you buy a lumpy real estate asset at the wrong time and the market drops by 30%, you are hosed — just like the young lady sitting across the aisle from me on the airplane this afternoon learned.
In general, I suggest you don’t trust Realtors®, and I assume the propagandist who posted this flawed advice is one such individual.
Why don’t we have a shadow inventory count of used cars
I think we actually tried that: Cash 4 Clunkers
Used/repo’s cars deteriorate and depreciate, especially with use. It’s more advantageous to repo and auction them as quickly as possible. Banks know that car prices always go down. That’s why there is no shadow car inventory.
Used/foreclosed houses do not deteriorate, certaintly not as fast as a car, especially if someone is there to do basic maintenance, like an FB, or a contractor like Ben. Banks are betting that the house price declines of 2006-2013 (or so) are an aberration, and can afford to hold the inventory until the price goes back up. In fact, through manipulation of interest rates, inflation, FHA requirements, volume of visible inventory, banking regs, and the like, The Powers That Be can ensure that the house price declines of 2006-2013 will be an aberration.
Why is there no shadow inventory of CRE or other things? Because it doesn’t affect most voters. Everyone has a home, and everyone wants it to be a high price.
Used/repo’s cars deteriorate and depreciate, especially with use. It’s more advantageous to repo and auction them as quickly as possible.
Apparently the real money is in repoing them, cleaning them up and reselling them to the next buyer with bad credit, who will make 6-12 months of payments before being repoed.
This is the business model used by chain used car retailers like JD Byrider, or any mom-n-pop retailer with the ubiquitous “buy here -pay here” or “we finance” sign on the lot.
Plus there’s no need to hide inventory, as there is a used car shortage to begin with.
Used/foreclosed houses do not deteriorate, certaintly not as fast as a car, especially if someone is there to do basic maintenance, like an FB, or a contractor like Ben………
This is a theoretical fantasy, not grounded in real world actions being taken by the foreclosure market. MANY houses have deteriorated to the point of being condemned.
I have personally witnessed the decline of dozens of houses that were left abandoned.
Typically if the roof needs repair and is starting to leak, the bank will send out a crew with a BLUE TARP. They nail it to the roof to keep out the water. IN a couple of months the sun has destroyed the tarp, the wind has picked it up and water goes into the house at every rain storm. I can’t count the number of houses in this condition in the Tampa area alone.
The house gets sold as a fixer-upper, as-is, at a very low price.
As for maintenance, that’s not going on either.
The squatters stay so long as there is no problem. IF it’s minor, they might fix it. When they leave, they load up all the appliances, and Fixtures and whatever they can take and trash the place if they have any energy left after loading the van with the kitchen cabinets, water heater and interior doors.
In the house i most recently purchased, they even pulled down the aluminum gutters. I guess that added to the metal weight the got for the A/C compressor.
Foreclosures are BAD deals for banks. Perhaps the only good ones would be Condominimums, if they paid the maintenance fees, but they don’t….. so the condo association liens them.
I don’t see banks providing crews to “maintain” properties.
They usually just change the locks and board up the windows.
The GSE’s say they ‘winterize’ them, but i don’t see much good with that here. I just makes them candidates for mold by closing in all the humidity.
No. I think housing sitting in the Florida, Nevada, Arizona, or California sun are just waiting to break down by the steady work of entropy and weather cycles.
Well, if you abandon a car it’ll also get stripped down and left on cinder blocks.
only in certain cities and in certain areas. in New Orleans it wouldn’t last 5 hours back in the 80’s.
I guess in the safer areas it would simply get towed away. But the same could be said for houses. We have a few “empties” in out nabe, and not a single one has been vandalized.
And for office it’s called “sublease space”.
Good question, Lip. Sadly, Americans aren’t very smart, by which I mean they are fairly dumb, and when it comes to economics, well a standard piece of lawn furniture is really smarter.
I keep telling people that borrowing is only hiding the need for greater income. On the government level, that means higher taxes. If the system is still functioning, then that $1.5 trillion we now borrow each year (40% of the federal budget) MUST translate into massive tax increases later. And the later it takes, the more massive the increases, or the harder the system collapses in lieu.
I don’t get invited to many parties over these issues (none anymore, really), but it’s still true. Dumb or ignorant people don’t like being informed directly or otherwise that they’re dumb or ignorant, nor that their society has severe structural problems.
Americans are not dumb.
Raising taxes isn’t the only side of the equation to address spending can be cut to match revenue.
Raising taxes isn’t a given, you can raise the rates but t his doesn’t mean revenue will increase. You can only tax so much.
“Americans are not dumb.”
Collectively we are dumb, and there are entire industries that depend on us remaining dumb.
Most of Berkshire Hathaway is built on that.
Although, to be fair, they do have a sorta ol’-fashioned conscience built in. (e.g. they don’t invest in casinos.)
But they are built on dumb. It’s OK. I can be down with that.
“they do have a sorta ol’-fashioned conscience built in.”
Railroad$, 34 billion in ca$h, yep that’s about as old fa$hioned as it gets in America.
Oh, did ya know that 98% of all war procurement in America [material, troops, weapons, food, Oakley sunglasses etc. etc. etc.] during WWII was by rail?
Seems $illy Warren has retained what is currently called today: “a body of knowledge”
“Raising taxes isn’t the only side of the equation to address spending can be cut to match revenue.”
Then stop setting up false arguments and get wacking. Shave 10% from SS payments, shave 10% from DoD.
Double that to 20% DOD and make it 30 % welfare cuts, including corporate welfare. Social security is bought for by people who paid in. Better yet, allow people to opt out as long as they do not expect a payout and allow them to fund their own retirement.
make it 30 % welfare cuts, including corporate welfare.
How about we start with 100% cuts to corporate welfare?
How about we eliminate corporate income taxes, then you can’t deduct tax breaks if you pay no taxes.
How about we start with 100% cuts to corporate welfare?
Are you really suggesting that we eliminate a tax so that people can’t take deductions against that tax? Not arguing that it is an unfair tax or that it slows growth or anything else but just to eliminated the issue of deductions?
Please explain your reasoning (I think I’m going to regret this).
How about no one pays any taxes and just let the government borrow 100% of what it spends? Yeah, that’s the ticket!
“Double that to 20% DOD and make it 30 % welfare cuts, including corporate welfare.”
I’m not sure that’s $1.5 trillion there.
I’m not sure that’s $1.5 trillion there.
Exactly. How do you cut 1.5 trillion from the budget? Even if you cancelled SS and Medicare and continued collecting the payroll tax, that would be about 900B, so still 600B short.
What good is the corporate income tax anyway? It just raises the prices for everyone. But the worst part is the tax loss carry forwards and government gives them back cash money if they lose a ton.
Plus executives would have a harder time explaining golden parachutes and outrageous salaries if it all went to the bottom line.
What I am saying is since you wont pay any tax then there would be no need for corporate welfare. And you can deduct all you want…its between you and the shareholders
I think it would eliminate deals done for tax purposes zombie shell companies capturing the tax losses or carbon credits etc…..it seems a fairer system
Are you really suggesting that we eliminate a tax so that people can’t take deductions against that tax? Not arguing that it is an unfair tax or that it slows growth or anything else but just to eliminated the issue of deductions?
Please explain your reasoning (I think I’m going to regret this).
including corporate welfare.
Let’s do it. What’s the problem? (waiting for some jackass to respond with diversionary pandering)
Better yet, allow people to opt out as long as they do not expect a payout and allow them to fund their own retirement.
That’s how it works in Mexico. Of course down there SS (IMSS) also provides socialized health care, which is why so many opt out, especially those with employer provided health insurance.
That said, I know more than a few oldsters down there who have zilch in their retirement as they saved nothing and opted out of the IMSS.
What happens to them? Or is the set up new enough that nobody really knows yet?
The IMSS was founded in 1943.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instituto_Mexicano_del_Seguro_Social
What happens to them? Most end up living with their kids.
“Shave 10% from SS payments, shave 10% from DoD.”
The Democrats won’t let the former happen, and the Republicans won’t let the latter happen. So, NEITHER will happen. This is why the federal budget only grows. This is why Wall Street buys both sides. The <5% who are truly alternative (Libertarian) will never prevail, until it’s too late, and then they will lose anyway, along with the 99%.
Shaving 10% from SS payments would save about 60B a year. So, where do we cut for the remaining 1.44T?
You cut 40% from every program, without exception. Since you’re borrowing 40%, that takes the deficit to zero. Since also you’re cutting everyone without exception, nobody can claim they’ve been targeted by those legislator meanies.
But like I said, it won’t happen. There won’t be 40% across-the-board cuts. There won’t be specific cuts. They can’t even agree on cutting $80 billion from $1500 billion borrowed (a lousy 5% of the borrow). No, they will keep borrowing XX% on the federal budget until the shooting starts in the USA, military style.
“Americans are not dumb.”
Cuba had their window of opportunity to invade [with Soviet help], they blew it.
Next up either Somalia or Pakistan, almost a tossup ‘ceptin fer nukes trump rubber dingy’s
…Or perhaps there’s afoot an inva$ion of another sort taking place?
[Maybe someone left the kitchen window open?]
Filed under: “$hadow migration’$”
New Asian immigrants to US now surpass Hispanics
Associated PressBy HOPE YEN | Associated Press – 7 hrs ago
Mostly foreign-born and naturalized citizens, their numbers have been boosted by increases in visas granted to $pecialized workers and to wealthy investor$ as the U.$. economy becomes driven less by manufacturing and more by technology.
“Too often the policy debates on immigration fixate on just one part — illegal immigration,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, a political science professor at the University of California-Riverside and a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “U.S. immigration is more diverse and broader than that, with policy that needs to focus also on high-skilled workers.”
“With net migration from Mexico now at zero, the role of Asian-Americans has become more important,” he said.”
This is very evident in Silly Valley, which could be nicknamed New Bangalore.
Interesting thing to see is what happens to the children.
They become Americanized in some ways. But they also tend to hold on to that Asian drive to achieve and become well educated. Read Amy Chua’s book, Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother for some insight.
The reason I bring up this book is to relate what happened to the two daughters. Mom pushed both of them very hard. Especially in the academic and musical realms.
The younger daughter rebelled. To the point of having a very loud outburst in a Moscow restaurant. She was allowed to stop taking music lessons.
Well, said daughter decided to pick up a tennis racket. And, guess what, she showed a killer instinct on the court. I mean, this kid was determined to mow down all of her opponents.
Can’t imagine where that sort of drive came from.
Nascar & ping-pong, paint ball & badminton, skateboarding & bocce , … America what a country!
I admire the culture of most Asians. Most are family oriented without being bible thumpers. I tried my best to be very productive and a great saver for years and find that I have outperformed most of the ones I have been working with in L.A. during the last nine years. Some are more racist than white people. I work with some racist male Asian Americans. Racism is a loser’s game. They spend their energy in bringing other people down rather than improving themselves.
Note I used the term “most,” not “all.” big difference.
I once worked with a Korean Gal (native, from Korea) and she explained to me the “pecking order” in desireable potential mates.
It was something like:
Native Koreans (those from the Western part of the peninsular were preferable).
American Born Koreans
Native Chinese
Japanese
American Born Chinese (AKA the ABCs)
Indochinese
Caucasian
etc.
Black was considered bottom of the barrel.
So are Creole Black people involved with Zydeco music…its rare for them to have rap sheets or to have fights at the dances…and yet record companies are so scared to death of promoting them.
I admire the culture of most Asians. Most are family oriented without being bible thumpers.
I think that most cultures are “family oriented”. Only Americans kick their kids out the door when they turn 18.
Maybe they are scared to promote zydeco because it’s niche music that few people like and few people will spend money for?
Maybe they are scared to promote zydeco because it’s niche music that few people like and few people will spend money for?
The station I’m involved with recently cancelled its cajun/zydeco show. If it had higher ratings, replacement deejays would have been found.
Guess we’re too far from New Orleans to have an audience for that sort of music.
Slim its because the DJ’s playing this music are old farts, country bumpkins and for that there is no audience…
If they played the current music think there is a good market for it…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTQ9N35r9qM
“With net migration from Mexico now at zero, the role of Asian-Americans has become more important,” he said.”
I had my kids watch “Blade runner” I explained Sci Fi oftens predicts the future with uncanny accuracy.
I work in High Tech interesting almost all my American born co-workers have no interest in macro economics but instead agrue over political parties as if that matters. My Chinese and Indian co-workers ask me endless questions about econmics.
I find that interesting. Chinese place a very high value on “Luck” meaning even though they have Phd in Electrical Engineering they cultivate luck and talk about lucky people and unlucky people. They are gamblers. I Remember warning against buying in 2005 as their “winnings” racked up. They would say how lucky certain people were with there RE holdings and how they could quit work, be rich, all kinds of crazy stuff. “Women would have more power than a man with RE.” Stuff like that. I talked about this on this blog back in 2005.
Chinese place a very high value on “Luck”
This from a country with 1.3+ Billions of humans, … seems “luck” might bee a back seat driver. :-/
Chinese place a very high value on “Luck” meaning even though they have Phd in Electrical Engineering they cultivate luck and talk about lucky people and unlucky people
Aren’t these the same people who will design a skyscraper to have good Feng Shui?
“I keep telling people that borrowing is only hiding the need for greater income.”
deficit spending is taxation without representation.
Deficit spending to artificially inflate prices of various market sectors resulting in a crowded trade is larcenous.
You’re catching on to what makes bankster centric “capitalism” tick.
“deficit spending is taxation without representation.”
Don’t Deficit $pend means losing “the war” resulting in taxation without representation.
[you can pick which war you prefer.]
Elected representatives choose deficit spending. It may be a future tax, but there is plenty of representation there.
LOL. If you don’t want higher taxes, you’re dumb. What a compelling argument.
No. Americans ARE dumb.
“Americans are not dumb.”
Obviously you’re wrong. We’re the best educated morons to have ever existed. Our economy has literally collapsed and yet I see people still planning on a future. We have no future. We go $1.5 trillion further into the hole each year at the federal level alone. Industry slowly bleeds overseas, yet stranded workers are still expected to pay for everything as if they were fully and gainfully employed. They still scrape and cling, and then make plans for putting their kids through college. Madness. Dumbness.
“Raising taxes isn’t the only side of the equation to address spending can be cut to match revenue.”
Spending cuts? Are you high? When does our two-party, one-Wall-Street system ever cut spending? We run a $1500 billion yearly deficit and the “two parties” can’t even agree on $80 billion in “cuts”?
The sad thing is that following the imperial model (not that most Americans can even admit they are subjects of an empire, not citizens of a republic), the beginning of the end hasn’t even started. We are still emplacing our imperial legions around the world; the sun never sets on an American military base. The center isn’t running on bread and circuses yet. Assassinations aren’t a usual thing yet. Really, this nation-ending party hasn’t even started.
I’ve said before, and I’ll say it again: The Housing Balloon is still here. Now the False Recovery is rolling in like a tsunami, right on schedule: 3-5 years after the peak.
“Our economy has literally collapsed and yet I see people still planning on a future.”
Perhaps some see it as this: “The TAO Jone$ Industrial$”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-rules-that-can-save-you-from-the-doomsday-cycle-2012-06-19?dist=beforebell
Here’s a short-version of what you must expect if you want to save yourself from the worst of today’s Doomsday Cycle:
1. Population control is absolutely essential. Experts warn Planet Earth can support about five billion people. We have 7 billion, heading for 10 billion by 2050. The Myth of Perpetual Growth is capitalist voodoo, outstripping resources, guaranteed suicide.
2. Worst-case-scenario, population grows to 10 billion, disasters. Population explodes to 10 billion. Non-renewable resources are exhausted as if from six Earths. Widespread global wars, starvation, poverty, pandemics, and other disasters could reduce population.
3. Next worst-case scenario: Population not cut back to 5 billion. Still too many people. Revolutions are wake-up calls to abandon capitalism and classical economics.
4. Population control must eventually become worldwide economic policy. Yes, even with the Vatican, conservatives, scientists. Well before 2050 deniers who will be shocked by the reality of accelerating catastrophes threatening the planet and human existence.
5. Mass denial ends in aftermath of global catastrophes . But what’ll shock the world’s collective conscience? The tipping point? Global pandemics? Poverty? Starvation? Terrorist nuclear wars? Our collective brain is still trapped in mass denial, refusing to prepare. We may not know what will awaken the world. But we’re certain a big one is dead ahead.
6. Revolutions end Super Rich capitalism. Rapidly increasing class warfare over inequalities will fuel new regional revolutions as unemployed youth demand reforms.
7. Wall Street’s too-greedy-to-fail banks will become public utilities. Once powerful banks are forced to put the public interest ahead of stockholder interests.
8. Commodity pricing shifts from markets to international agreements.
9. New regulations end quants’ casino and derivatives gambling.
10. Fed monetary policy no longer dominated by Wall Street banks.
11. Quants, behavioral scientists shift, to work for the real economy.
12. Post collapse, oil takes lead developing alternative energy.
13. No-compromise politics ends, cooperation essential to survival.
14. Conservatives return to center as rigid minority rule ends.
15. Inequality gap declines. After a global collapse even the Super Rich will wake up to the reality that their blind focus on perpetual growth of wealth is destroying their base.
16. Lobbyists no longer use Washington as their private anarchy.
17. Our global imperialism ends along with Pentagon’s blank checks.
18. Rebirth of a powerful, new democratic United Nations.
19. Climate-change deniers disappear as reality becomes obvious.
20. Dawning of a new global era, the New No-Growth Economy: The long-term survival of all nations on Earth depends on a bold, radical new way of thinking. We have no choice: Cooperate, live in peace.
Or we seal our own fate by self-destructing a threatened planet and a fragile civilization. Let’s encourage optimism, positive solutions, after austerity.
Why don’t you just also post the communist manifesto while you are at…?
————–
Also - FYI
The Population Bomb
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Population Bomb was a best-selling book written by Stanford University Professor Paul R. Ehrlich and his wife, Anne Ehrlich (who was uncredited), in 1968.[1][2] It warned of the mass starvation of humans in the 1970s and 1980s due to overpopulation, as well as other major societal upheavals, and advocated immediate action to limit population growth. Fears of a “population explosion” were widespread in the 1950s and 60s, but the book and its charismatic author brought the idea to an even wider audience.[3][4]
+1 2b,
The OP is just embedding his jingoistic socialism in all that muck. Already in most developed nations, the populations are aging. Now even in Mexico young families are much smaller than a generation ago. The one child policy of China is creating an overpopulation of young males compared to females.
I welcome a reduced population, and ironically, it is individualism I. The developed nations that encourages people to remain single and childless.
Yeah but you see, if we reduce own populations to ZPG, children in Sudan will have more to eat..or something…
I just made a breakfast smoothie with two bananas. It was delicious.
Does that make you a cannibal?
Cannibalism never tasted so good!
Uh-oh. I’m hungry. Wonder what I’ll have for lunch.
As you may recall, India instituted a national birth control program after it was published. Or did you forget that part?
Calm down and have a cup of coffee. The sun is going to burn out in 50 billion years too.
“In the long run, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”
13. No-compromise politics ends, cooperation essential to survival.
Your not staying on message:
“Where’s his darn Birth Certificate!!!!!!!”
And all this while, the Genetic Nautilus of Intelligence spins uncontrollably on a wobbly planet towards this:
Andromeda–Milky Way collision
Filed under: “Wheel$ that rotate”:
6. Revolutions end $uper Rich capitali$m. Rapidly increasing class warfare over inequalitie$ will fuel new regional revolutions as unemployed youth demand reforms.
How can you have “wage inflation” without the creation of: Job$! Job$! Job$!?
$eems like a “conundrum” of some $ort.
“19. Climate-change deniers disappear as reality becomes obvious. ”
Do you blame eeeevil SUVs for the global warming that ended the last ice age.
Environmentalists (and Wall St. carbon tax credit traders) love to talk about global climate change, until someone brings up the fact that global climate changes constantly, based heavily on solar events and changes in the earth’s ecosystem. The earth goes through warming and cooling cycles every 10-20k years.
But the rate of change is increasing dramatically! Oh, so now it’s not human interaction causing global climate change, rather causing an increase in the rate of change in a natural phenomena? So, more regulation, higher taxes, and increased costs to limit something that is part of a natural cycle and that has been going on since there was life on the planet to create complex ecosystems? Sounds suspect…
Species extinction is increasing dramatically because they can’t adapt to the high rate of climate change! Right, and I suppose dinosaurs should have survived, too, everything else being equal. But it seems the rise of mammalian dominance on earth was related to the demise of dinosaurs as the dominant life form on earth. So natural selection and genetic mutation are constantly providing the platform for life to take advantage of opportunities in there respective ecosystems created by other species not being able to adapt to changes and evolutionary pressures.
Sounds like environmentalists want to maintain the status quo as far the earth goes and Wall St. wants another derivative to trade and profit from while nature continues to do what it has always done… adapt and change.
Climate Change is the greatest scam. No matter what happens it’s climate change. Earth getting warmer? CC, we need more tax/regulation to stop it!! Earth getting getting cooler? CC, we need more tax/regulation to stop it!! More rain falling that before? CC, we need more tax/regulation to stop it!! Less rain? CC, we need more tax/regulation to stop it. No matter what happens with the weather, it’s climate change and we need to spend gazillions of tax dollars to stop the change from happening.
And the COEXIST types read about it on their Ipad sipping a double 1/2 caf decaf at the local Starbucks and blindly nod in agreement.
Accelerating warming is a symptom, Smithers, not the cause. Best leave the nincompoopery to Sarah P.
No. Global Warming/Climate Change is the new religion of the left. It doesn’t matter how much evidence there is to the contrary, they believe! Look at how any weather event is treated….a cat 4/5 hurricane, why it’s climate change. Tornadoes, climate change. Even earthquakes are now being blamed on climate change for crying out loud. Did you get the flu this winter? Blame Climate Change.
From HuffnPuff:
Climate Change: Flu Pandemics Linked To Strange Weather?
“What do the Pakistan floods, the Queensland floods, and the drought in Africa during 2010 and 2011 have in common with a hundred years of flu outbreaks? They may all be attributed to the ocean-atmosphere phenomenon known as La Niña — conspirator of El Niño. Together the two create the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern.”
Global Warming/Climate Change is the new religion of the left.
Scientists are leftists?
No. Global Warming/Climate Change is the new religion of the left. It doesn’t matter how much evidence there is to the contrary, they believe!
I think you are wrong.
Evolution and the “big bang theory” are the religions of the left.
They believe that all things exist from “natural processes”, except global climate change. We must have caused it.
You can poke holes in most of the theories with mountains of evidence to the contrary, like simple things using REAL science like the conservation of angular momentum, entropy, the actual records of fossil discoveries showing NO intermediate forms, and yet, they will turn to the pages of their “text books” with all the artist renderings of how people dreamed up some organization to the very basis of life and say: “see, this is how life ‘evolved’.” I have a leftist brother like this. He has finally agreed that the “science” they have provided does NOT imply a Darwinian solution to life formation, especially with the “cambrian explosion” and the KT boundary problem with world wide FLOOD implications.
So, he agrees that he has “faith” that his belief system is sound. I feel I made a large in-road to getting that concession. If only we could agree that in any explosion all thing go out from the center and continue in a straight line.
Getting all that hydrogen and energy to slow down and form Galaxies and turn in circular fashions, some in counter-cyclical directions, some in counter-cyclical directions in the same system, by NO reasonable model scientifically available is all solved by BILLIONS and BILLIONS of years. IF you just give it enough time then anything can become anything else.
Frogs really do become princes. It just takes time.
And they say religious people are deluded and live in a fantasy world.
“evidence there is to the contrary”
I don’t have to go any further than Mt. Ranier to see how far the glaciers have receded since the 1950s.
“the actual records of fossil discoveries showing NO intermediate forms”
The fossil record is really very sparse.
Of course there are intermediate forms. Diogenes is woefully misinformed. And he wouldn’t know angular momentum if it bit him on the butt.
Do you blame eeeevil SUVs for the global warming that ended the last ice age.?
Come now. You know that’s silly. It must have been dinosaur farts or a big volcanic eruption (oh, i’m sorry that started the “ice age”), maybe just too much heavy breathing by the “neanderthals”, but certainly not cars.
And most importantly, the SUN or anything associated with the Sun, such as solar flares can never have any impact on earth’s climate. It must be man-made. It has to be. If it wasn’t then there wouldn’t be anything we could do about it. So…..it’s got to be our fault. we need draconian RULES to stop it. NOW. None of which will have much of any effect. What was it? .07% change over 20 years. I don’t recall. But facts don’t matter. WE must do something.
Kill car owners.
“experts warn Planet Earth can support about five billion people. We have 7 billion,”
anyone else stop reading at this point?
So how many people can the Earth support?
So how many people can the Earth support?
Have at it… Population Dynamics modeling
There may be a Nobel prize for science in it if you’re successful.
Like it or not, this is the best-case scenario for the 21st century. More to the point, America is on the losing end of resistance– our smug and bloated MIC notwithstanding. I lived through one near-civil war in America’s late 60’s. No desire to endure another.
Thanks for posting, elvis.
Civil war in the US is not possible. We have the United Nations HQ here.
Civil war is more than entirely possible, but it’s hard to recognize, when you already lost the most recent CW without a shot being fired (except for all the shots being fired in your streets by thugs that you don’t know how to stop, much less respond to). The rich declared war on you, in the late 1970s, and you already LOST.
Past the year 2000 or so, you’re really living in the era of the Occupancy. No, not the Occupy Wall Street morons; I’m talking about how the rich occupied the government after winning the Civil War II, and so are forcing you, the 99% (really the 90%, since the union pukes are in the 10%) to pay and pay and pay. They borrow $1.5 trillion a year, clearly stolen money, and you just sit there as a Conquered Person (CP), and you’re going to have to pay it. So will your kids, and their kids, all as CP’s. They will pay it directly, in heavy taxes, or indirectly, as lifelong poverty.
The idea that it’s normal now to have significant financial disruption in your life, involving career loss, divorce or bankruptcy from illness, is part of the impoverishment process.
“Civil war in the US is not possible. We have the United Nations HQ here.”
Don’t forget about all of the nasty weapons the Federal Government has at it’s disposal.
I agree. Everything I’ve been reading for the last few decades seems to be happening faster than anticipated, whether talking about depletion of fisherises, topsoil, groundwater, petroleum, etc…the list goes on and on.
Even if you don’t think that global climate change is compunded by human activity, here in the PNW we see the other impacts of CO2 into the atmosphere. For example, ocean acidification and subsequent die-off of the wild oyster population. Or broken-down plastics entering the food chain. Or radiation in the wild salmon from Fukushima. Don’t be alarmed. Just a trivial cost of doing business.
It will get ugly, no doubt, and I do not think it will be uncommon to hear regular reporting of 5MM people dying somewhere around the globe due to famine, disease, etc.
An economic model based upon infinite resources cannot continue to thrive as virtually everything dwindles.
“ocean acidification and subsequent die-off of the wild oyster population…”
The illogic that supports this newest disaster scenario is so doubled back on itself as to be appalling. When the sheep herders tell you stuff like this, just imagine they are droupouts from Reator school.
Actually I first read about it in the local paper years back and then the same topic came up a few months ago when talking with a local shellfish farmer (third generation) just south of here. As I recall, all of their oysters are farmed until they pass a critical level of growth (I believe two years) and then they can be planted in the bay to grow to maturity.
Even if you don’t think that global climate change is compunded by human activity, here in the PNW we see the other impacts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
How much CO2 is released during a volcanic eruption? A natural, recurring phenomena…
An economic model based upon infinite resources cannot continue to thrive as virtually everything dwindles.
Agree, it is a completely flawed economic model. However, there is a price to be paid for sustainability of natural resources and environmental protection. What price should we pay?
How much CO2 is released during a volcanic eruption? A natural, recurring phenomena…
Yeah, I thought the same thins when driving down US50 from Lake Tahoe when I lived there back in 2004 or so. A huge fire was raging towards Placerville and the entire area was enshrouded in smoke from South Lake all the way down the hill. I wondered, how much CO2 is being given off by this fire? Does it still justify emitting CO2 unfettered when many (and virtually the entire scientific community) agree that CO2 has some impact upon weather patterns, etc.
However, there is a price to be paid for sustainability of natural resources and environmental protection. What price should we pay?
Good point. There was a point where companies were stewards of resources and incorporated decision making to involve all stakeholders. Now everything is driven strictly and solely for profit. Regulation obviously doesn’t work. Our government is ineffective and corrupted. Most are, actually. It is sad to assume that since our government cannot regulate, and our businesses cannot self regulate, that we should just admit defeat.
All in all, I find it a great thrill to see this scenario unfold in front of me.
What about the emissions from forrest fires in the earlier centuries. Fires started by lightning would burn until some natural event would extinguish them.
Could be many, many months.
Well not to digress, but the forest management practices here in the US are a huge part of the problem. As more people moved into the forested areas, there were policies put in place to protect these homes built in the middle of nowhere. This meant decades of fuel (ie, wood matter) that built up only to create these mammoth blazes like we see all over the west on a regular basis. The fires of yore did occur frequently, actually quite frequently, and most of the fuel would burn, along with the weaker trees, and in turn provide a healthier forest. By the accounts I’ve read, the intensity was rarely like what we see today, and although they did burn for days, they did create effective carbon sinks in the way of creating nutrients for the soil and allowing regeneration of plant matter.
Is the human activity exacerbating the global climate change? Science mostly says yes (unless their studies are funded by special interests); MSM says yes and no; my personal observations indicate a yes. In the grand scheme of things it really doesn’t matter. This planet will survive and evolve with or without humans.
In the grand scheme of things it really doesn’t matter. This planet will survive and evolve with or without humans.
Exactly my point. The planet will still be here, along with evolving life (even if it’s just bacteria for a few millions of years), long after humans have become extinct or abandoned Earth for other parts.
“How much CO2 is released during a volcanic eruption? A natural, recurring phenomena…”
I can answer that. I did some research because some OxyContin-addled radio talk show host told me that Volcanoes emit more C02 n a year than all human activity throughout history combined. Made me feel warm and fuzzy because hey, now I can drive around for pure joy, wasting a ton of gas, eat a big mac out of one of the old styrofoam containers and change out my own freon on my car’s AC, all with a clear conscience. Mmmmm me likey.
Problem is - it simply isn’t true. According to the USGS, total volcanic C02 emissions worldwide are about 200 million tons(http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/volcanowatch/archive/2007/07_02_15.html). That may sound like a lot, but human activity including agriculture (decomposition of leftover organic matter), manufacturing, power generation, trasportation, etc is around 30 BILLION tons (33B in 2010).
Cue “The More you Know” banner…
Darn those facts.
Indeed Polly!
Couple minor corrections: The figures above are tons fo CO2 emmissions per year - probably obvious to most, but I wanted to clarify.
Also, I only meant for the original quote at the top to be italic, but I forgot to add the \ (close italics) html tag….
I guess we can’t blame global climate change on volcanoes after all. Oh, wait, that wasn’t my point. Maybe my point was that natural phenomena occurs every day which releases CO2 into the atmosphere. And then there is this per wikipedia:
the natural decay of organic material in forests and grasslands, such as dead trees, results in the release of about 220 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide every year.
In 2008, 8.67 gigatonnes of carbon (31.8 gigatonnes of CO2) were released from fossil fuels worldwide
I guess we should tax and regulate death and decay, as that seems to contribute most heavily to CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere… have congress start an investigative committee immediately.
That’s a very good point. Over the millenia, many carbon sinks have developed that absorb about 200 gigatonnes worth of C02 annually. The problem is, human activity is adding CO2 much faster than the natural sinks can absorb it - and the effect is cumulative.
The On-line Auctions for distressed real Estate are killing values in parts of the upstate SC . Sure , most are dogs ,and long neglected . But some are not , and are beside nice houses ,will be nice themselves once cleaned up . Most sell for between 10-20 K ,in unsafe areas they don’t get bids at all. (think Spartensburg co. )
an interesting one is 12000 sq. ft partly converted School building,on 4 acres in very rural Abbeville SC that some Florida folk dropped over 300K into before going bust , and is for sale online now (Terry Howe auctions) with no bids, though I noticed they have a min. starting bid on that of 62K,which is rare. we doubt they will get a nibble , it would take a lifetime to do or redo it .
I’ve gotta warn you how willing the system is to let those properties become degraded, abandoned, looted and ultimately put on the municipal or county demolition list. The supply-demand pricing graphs are totally incomplete, since they don’t account for stuff like utility. Below a certain price, the seller just GIVES UP, and the asset is destroyed.
I was reading an article from 1999 about a 25+ story skyscraper in our downtown that was full of the same bullshit (sorry, folks, gotta call it) that I’ve heard for all the years I’ve lived here. Condos, apartments, shops, restaurants. Nothing’s happened since the 1999 purchase. It’s been totally empty, all that time. That’s 13 solid years of NOTHING, for a building that’s shown prominently in all skyline photos and paintings. And yet people are still filled with hope, which the local politicians (ALL Democrats, mostly union-connected) leverage into increased taxes and shifted spending.
While we’re on this topic, take a look at the “Ghost Towers of Bangkok.” They were built almost 20 years ago.
A curious set of incentives which leads one to that course of action. Someone’s gotta be making money on that happening versus simply selling for less.
FHA Dropping $1,000 Debt Rule that Would Have Delayed Closing
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/fha-dropping-1000-disputed-debt-rule-2012-06-18
The Housing Bubble Never Ended™
They are still playing the game of “relaxing rules” to get the deals done.
Why should someone have to pay off a disputed debt to close on a house? Just because someone says you owe them money, doesn’t make it so. Identity fraud and billing errors are not unheard of and can be difficult to resolve.
Thought I would update everyone with the continuing saga of my Phoenix area seasonal rental.
Anyone recall the discussion we had in January about my experience on the “foreclosure flights”? (the Chiago-PHX flight that I always flew in First class last winter and was full of people flying out to PHX to speculate, err invest, in real estate).
The executive summary is that the owner is trying to make 50k profit on 15k of renovations, this is a textbook Home despot rehabbing. Had about 50 showings and three signed contracts. First contract couldn’t get FHA financing because of repairs needed (someone had a sanity check), the second and third offers were both cash and got cold feet at the last second. The owner decided to pull it off the market and wait for conditions to rebound next winter.
I get the sense that the intital exuberance in the Phoenix market is fading quickly, properties are coming back on the market and my inside sources tell me it’s significantly cooled from just a few months back. I’m calling this a dead cat bounce. Don’t believe me though, go on over to the C-D forums where there were multiple threads going just a few months back about how PHX property would appreciate 25% YOY this year, now there is not a single thread in the top 3 or 4 pages of topics.
One reason I cannot see this bounce lasting is that the buyers were mainly investors and flippers, everyone waiting for the greater fool to appear and pay more. How did that end last time?
Eh heh. There it is. Dead Cat Bounce. And you thought prices cratered in FeeNix from 2006-2011? Hold on to your hat cowboy because you’re in for a ride.
The biggest fraudster cheerleader on the C-D thread is screen named “Captain Bill.” Shamefully allowed to pump RE while the moderators come down like a hammer on anyone negative about Phoenix RE.
Bill, what is C-D, if you don’t mind me asking. i’d love to see this for myself.
City-data website. There is a thread called ‘Phoenix housing market tanking’. Bill in LA is right there are a couple minions there who can’t think and just follow the re bandwagon lead by some real estate people local to the area. Great reading for a laugh. Someone once referenced this website and was shot down quickly.
Speaking as someone who’s lived in Arizona for 25 years, I can attest to the fact that it can be difficult to stand up to the REIC and its mouthpieces.
It’s like speaking truth to power. Power doesn’t like being talked to that way. Especially when it’s the little people doing the talking.
But think for a minute: This blog was started by a guy from Flagstaff, Arizona. And it’s been going for what, eight years now?
Also, if you take a gander at the online comments in the state’s two largest newspapers, The Arizona Daily Star and The Arizona Republic, the real estate cheerleaders get beaten up in ways that they didn’t back in the heyday of the housing bubble.
So, things are changing here in AZ.
“Someone once referenced this website and was shot down quickly.”
Ha! [laughing! x3 cheers to Mr. Ben!]
Azcentral comments are hilarious. The math doesn’t pencil out for many of the posters who claim they are going to retire on collecting rent on homes theyve bought. Move destroyed a few of their calculations, and they get all defensive. I truly wonder how much mortgage fraud is being committed by these speculators, for when the real correction gets here, there will be some accountability as the fatigue of bailouts is real.
“while the moderators come down like a hammer on anyone negative about Phoenix RE.”
No need to to limit the negativity to RE, “Phoenix” would have been sufficient [ihho].
I get the sense that the intital exuberance in the Phoenix market is fading quickly, properties are coming back on the market and my inside sources tell me it’s significantly cooled from just a few months back. I’m calling this a dead cat bounce.
I’m calling the same thing here in Tucson.
So far, my calls haven’t gotten much traction. But I’m like the rooster at dawn. I just keep on calling.
How did that end last time?
with even cheaper money, lower interest payments, no down payments, no jobs and no credit…………….no price is too high.
until, at last, no more credit is extended to deadbeats………then,
“One reason I cannot see this bounce lasting is that the buyers were mainly investors and flippers, everyone waiting for the greater fool to appear and pay more. How did that end last time?”
Couldn’t have said it better myself.
Slim here with a radio update: If you’re in the insomniac mode tomorrow night, I’ll be co-hosting “The Chicano Connection” on KXCI-FM 91.3 in Tucson. That’s 10 p.m. to midnight MST. (East coasters, that’s a 1 a.m. start time.)
Up early this coming Saturday? I’ll be back on KXCI with a two-hour Ambient Mode edition of the Boot Camp show. Tune in for meditative and dance-able electronic music from 4 a.m. to 6 a.m. MST.
Tanks! Slim
Slim
Do you know if your broadcast can be received in Buffalo / Toronto area? On the web? XM?
Thank you
You can stream live via the web. Here’s the linkey-doo.
Funny article on house buying in the Greater Boston area as well as the “entitlement” of Gen Y. The article and the comments made me laugh.
Frustrated Gen Y buyer blasts tough market.
So housing isn’t cratering there?
So housing isn’t cratering there?
Prices have come down from peak in aggregate, but it’s not evenly distributed. Really depends on the location, many of which have reached peak bubble prices again.
Example, my multifamily in a post-industrial MA city is down 20+% from peak 2006/7 value. Meanwhile, my parent’s single family in an upscale part of a rural summer town on the south coast of MA is at or close to peak bubble value.
This is playing out all over eastern MA. Properties in communities with good schools within easy commute of Boston see bidding wars and increased prices while properties in less desirable locations languish on the market until prices decline to the point investors/first-timers see value.
The few houses we looked at in the spring lasted less than a month, sometimes less than a week after being listed, all with multiple offers. These were all higher-end foreclosures or short sales. Bottom line, we didn’t have a chance. We’re not in a rush as we still have work to do to get our apartment ready for renting when we want to move out…
Forgot to mention in the link I posted above, the Gen Y couple is skipping the “starter home” sfh purchase and moving right to mid-career, peak income, large family house. According to the author, she doesn’t want to get stuck in a house that is too small for their family if they can’t sell in the next five years.
The funny thing is my wife and I are in the exact same boat: the next house we buy will be it until the kids are in college 10+ years out, so It needs to be big enough for our lifestyle. There are plenty of smaller houses priced at levels we can easily afford that we ignore because they don’t meet our requirements for sqft, # of bedrooms, # of baths, garages, yards, etc.
The “starter home” may be a thing of the past if enough couples decide to wait until their late 30’s/40’s for kids and don’t want to compromise on size/amenities. Might also explain why so much inventory at the low end is languishing while higher-end properties are moving quickly.
Starter houses are great if you are sure that real estate will only go up and being in a house for 3 to 5 years means you will have a larger down payment for the “move up” one. Not so great once that “promise” goes away.
My parents stayed in the starter house. Everybody did. If you needed more space as kids got older you finished the basement into a extra bedroom or a place for the kids to hang out when their bedrooms were too small/shared with younger siblings. One family down the street split the upstairs bedroom so their two daughters could each have some private space (adding in the space that was an upstairs storage closet under the roof as a low ceiling zone). People just didn’t move.
Please share you opinions/ideas.
My husband bought a house (AZ) in 2004 and got a cash-out refi in 2005 at 6.25% fixed (all before we married). The mortgage is an interest only for 10 years, then 20 years at a higher payment (about $250/month more than now). The house is now underwater by about 30%, even though we were paid extra for a few years to pay back the cash-out part.
I’ve been thinking that now might be a good time to try to refi into a 30-year fixed rate at around 4%. I know staying in the house is probably a bad financial decision, but it wouldn’t be right to walk away from the agreement. The refi loan might be recourse anyhow.
We now have a family and the house/neighborhood aren’t ideal for our situation, but we might be able to rent it out to cover costs if we were able to refi and have a lower mortgage payment. I think I’ve convinced my hubbby we should rent, not buy, our next place if we do this.
Please share you thoughts/ideas. Thanks.
but it wouldn’t be right to walk away from the agreement.
And why is that? Have you discussed this option with your best friend on the planet(your attorney)?
I’d also get a copy of University of Arizona law professor Brent White’s book, Underwater Home: What Should You Do if You Owe More on Your Home than It’s Worth?
If you’re too pinched for money to buy this one at the bookstore, then borrow it from your library. If it’s not there, then try Inter-Library Loan.
With regards from your HBB Librarian…
I agree. If you are doing the “right thing” even though it may not be in your best interest, ask yourself if the bank would do the “right thing” if it was not in their best interest.
I would also discuss with a CPA as it may relate to debt forgiveness income (and whether there is a difference between walking in 2012 vs. 2013).
The house is now underwater by 30%
How are you going to refi if it’s underwater by that much? Yes, supposedly there are government programs to “help” underwater home owners refi, but as we’ve seen repeatedly on this blog, they don’t work and aren’t helping anyone. Don’t count on getting a refi unless you’re bringing money to the table…
Can you rent it out and absorb the negative cash-flow? Do you want to be landlords (trust me, it’s a major pain)?
Talk to an attorney and look at your assets and debts. It may be worth it to short-sale or foreclose and file bankruptcy…
Here’s another doozie:
The median household’s net worth, excluding home equity, is a paltry $15,000.
This is mind boggling. Our two paid for cars are worth more than that. We try to save that much in our 401K every year.
But I suppose this shouldn’t be surprising. What sort of net work are Lucky Duckies supposed to have? That $15K probably includes their clunker car and whatever personal belongings they’ve accumulated over the years.
http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/19/news/economy/net-worth-housing/index.htm?iid=Lead
No one forces these people to spend money on flat panel TVs, iPhones, etc. I have a 40 yo friend who doesn’t even pay rent because her BMW sucks up all the money, and her parents cover the rent. The concept of delayed gratification has been replaced with loans and debt servicing.
I have a 40 yo friend who doesn’t even pay rent because her BMW sucks up all the money
It’s even worse than that. One of my tenants is in her mid/late twenties and her parents pay her rent and support her financially. She just recently got a job because she tried to apply for an auto loan to buy a new car and she couldn’t get financing. Seems the parents wouldn’t cosign on the loan because she has bad credit and is irresponsible. No co-signer, no income, no car, so she gets a job to show income and be able to get a loan.
Now all I hear from her is complaining that she has to work and how much she hates it… meanwhile, she works from home. While she is complaining, I’m getting in my car to drive the hour+ in Boston traffic to my job… same commute I’ve been doing for years.
They don’t have a clue and they expect everything to be given to them…
“her BMW sucks up all the money,”
I still cannot understand the fascination with these junks. People pay 4x the price of a new Chevy and get what?
The Ultimate Driving Machine. And the inflated sense of self-worth to go with it. This usually doesn’t include a commensurate increase in driving ability, however.
But it’s not 4x the price of a new Chevy…have you priced a new Chevy lately? I bought my 4yo 335xi for 26k. I would compare that to an equivalent Chevy but unfortunately there’s no such thing. The closest thing GM has would have to come from Cadillac and then you’re talking just as much initial cost with way worse depreciation. And still wouldn’t be AWD+turbo, which is my preference.
The equivalent Chevy would be the Camaro or Corvette. The Camaro starts in the 30’s and get’s into the 40’s quickly… about the price of a BMW 3. The Vette is already up in the 50-60k range, around the price of an M3.
“Fake it till you make it” is alive and well. You pay the lease on your new Beemer and mom and dad pay your rent…
Priced out a Chevy Avalanche and a Chevy Tahoe recently: $50-55k. Talk about sticker shock.
Priced out a Chevy Avalanche and a Chevy Tahoe recently: $50-55k. Talk about sticker shock.
I’m visualizing the number of bicycles that could be purchased with that amount of money.
The equivalent Chevy would be the Camaro or Corvette.
If you want 4dr AWD turbo there is no equivalence there.
Cadillac’s retain their value better than any other luxury car (in no small part because they don’t change from year to year).
In Colorado said: “The median household’s net worth, excluding home equity, is a paltry $15,000. This is mind boggling.”
IC, there are two Americas. The one where you live in, which is the First World. And there’s the one I live in, which is like Albania, a.k.a. the Second World. The only real problem with this, is in people denying it. Due to denial, taxes and government in my Albania-esque portion of the nation are still at First World levels. And that makes our lives all the harder.
You are living amongst the side of the country that thinks they are responsible for their own life’s bills. Therefore, you work and save.
That’s only half the country.
If you are poor and collect money from Uncle Sugar, you don’t want to accumulate wealth. If you have money, then you aren’t eligible for the handouts. Your GOAL is to have a big screen tv, lots of toys and a big car with gangsta whitewalls and a big LOUD stereo system.
You spend your time crusin’ the ‘hood, while waiting for your food and incidentals credits to arrive from your benefactors.
Essentially, you RETIRE, before you start to work. The best way is illegitimate children. the more the merrier.
The baby daddy lives with you, but you tell the welfare office you don’t know the baby-daddy, so you can collect a free check for everyone of the dependents. Even better, if you can get them to have “Learning disabilities” that is good for about $800 per month per child, and you don’t have to call it income……you can spend it.
So, having “net worth” is NOT desirable when you want a free handout. IT is an impediment. You can’t retire at age 20 if you go out and find a job. So what side of the street do you want to live on?
The workers have been getting the shaft for 30 years to support these early retirement programs and the programs have grown every year.
You have to “save the children”, don’t you?
If the cars are financed, their net worth is negative for part of their life. A lot of those with student debt have a negative net worth. And that doesn’t even account for the payday loan crowd.
Should it be surprising, considering that 47% (so I’ve heard) earn so little that they pay no income taxes?
“Overall, median household net worth declined 35% to $66,740 in 2010.
The median worth of stock and mutual fund portfolios fell 33%, while the median home equity value dropped 28%.”
Unbeknownst to me, stock and mutual fund portfolios were hammered even worse than home equity.
June 19, 2012, 4:55 a.m. EDT
So long, suckers — I’m leaving Wall Street
Commentary: Some lessons from 15 years observing the industry
By David Weidner, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — After covering the tobacco industry for three years in North Carolina, I moved to New York in 1997 to cover a really dirty business: Wall Street.
Fifteen years after I made that switch, I’m moving on again. More on that in a moment.
…
So he jumped ship to a more lucrative place right at the start of one bubble jumped onto another bubble and then eventually got laid off because he was a zero to start with?
This is a joke, right?
Where’s that RAL guy when you need him in a different context?
Tanks! Excellent $tarting point, me Jr. College English professor was big on setting an opening pa$$ion theme!
“Simple is better: For 60 years, a 37-page document kept the financial system relatively safe. It was called Glass-Steagall. In the 13 years since it was repealed in the name of modernization, we’ve seen a tech bubble and the greatest financial crisis since the stock-market crash of 1929.”
To quote a burning $hrub: “heheeheheeheeheehheheeheeheehee”
So … QE3 … or no QE3 announcement today?
The stock market seems to think yes
I’m thinking … not yet … they’ll save that for when Spain starts getting serial bailouts a la Greece, which should be soon.
Colorado
QE3 - I hope it doesn’t happen! The stock market seems to be okay without it - and I don’t think Canusa has the real stomach to help Euro.
It would be like an invalid trying to help a big fat man across the street.
The distortions being laid unto our economic engines is mind boggling. By their attempts to remove deflation they have actually encouraged it.
If you had to pay your bank money would you do it? Or store your 100% dollars under the mattress?
Now for me to be proven wrong.
It occurs to me that all the big interest groups have robust lobbying presences in DC. So, who represents the people?
So, who represents the people?
The People? What are you? Some kind of communist?
They’ve NEVER represented them. Not once. Not EVER.
The only novel thing is that you’ve finally managed to rip the mask off your complacence and incompetence.
How about a bunch of nuns on a bus trip?
“So, who represents the people?”
1st check “the people’s” clothes fer Corp.Inc “Logo’$”, might offer a hint.
I’m thinking it might be prudent to stay away from housing until the last of the true believers in the bubble is past retirement and the more financially cautious “Baby on Board” generation comes of age.
Grim job prospects could scar today’s college graduates
By Chuck Raasch, USA TODAY
Updated 22h 46m ago
Megan Silsby, a 2012 graduate of Virginia Tech, is looking for a job. Since her graduation in December she has set up an office in her parent’s basement and works business hours there actively looking for employment.
Every day at 8 a.m., Silsby, 22, heads to a basement office in her parents’ home in Chantilly, Va. All day, she searches the Internet for openings, applies for jobs, follows up with phone calls. She has applied for more than 80 jobs, with no luck so far.
“I’ve definitely kind of had to sit down sometimes and keep myself from getting discouraged, because honestly I feel if I get that interview …” and her voice trails, youthful optimism diluted by the fallout of the Great Recession.
For the moment, Silsby finds compensation elsewhere, especially in the reconnection with her parents and two younger siblings. Her father has jokingly told her that he hopes she will never move out. She yearns for independence, but the job hunt has been a forced primer of how competitive the world is and a reaffirmation that being close to her family is important to her. Meanwhile, almost $30,000 in college loans wait to be repaid.
Variations of this story are being lived, one by one, by legions of college graduates confronting a tight job market. And one by one, generational attitudes are being formed about work, security and even family, particularly among people younger than 25 who have entered the job market since 2008.
The national unemployment rate rose to 8.2% in May as Silsby was graduating as one of 2.6 million who got bachelor’s, master’s or doctoral degrees in the school year now ending. The non-partisan Economic Policy Institute called their labor market “grim” and said that over the previous year, unemployment among college graduates younger than 25 had averaged 9.4%, with an additional 19.1% in jobs for which they were overqualified.
Beneath this cascade of sobering statistics, a new pragmatism might be forming.
“A lot of us are silly optimistic, sometimes,” says Amanda Frattarola, 22, who graduated from the University of Vermont in 2011 and found a job as a health and wellness coordinator in Arlington, Texas. Her job search lasted eight months. She says it does not pay what she or her mother expected, and it is far from the New York City address she dreamed of having. But she likes the work, is supporting herself and has held firmly to “that mentality that everything will work out for me. Some of the hardest days of my life have been in this past year. I also feel like I have learned so much about myself.”
Back to the 1930s
Social scientists say these young adults are a lot like the Americans who came of age in the early 1930s, both in the economic upheaval they confront and in the attitudes toward success, contentment and risk aversion that they are forming.
“The economic situation (of young adults) is completely parallel and analogous to the (Depression-era) GI generation — raised in relative affluence, and then just as they are to start in that affluent world, it all comes crashing down,” says Morley Winograd, who has co-authored several books on Millennials, the generation born from 1982 to 2003. “And so they have to find new ways to persevere. They just have assumed that everything that came before them was a mirage — that it was false, built on unsafe foundations.”
The grads of 2012 entered college as Wall Street crashed in September 2008, sending their elders flailing for remedies and scapegoats. They were part of the “baby on board” generation, born in ’90s affluence and often hyper-protected through adolescence in a security-conscious, post-9/11 world. Now they face an economic reality few saw coming. Some say the growing up will be fast.
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“true believer$” [smilin']
Oh I get by with a little help from the Fed,
Ooh I get high with a little help from the Fed.
As Fed meets, investors want to know if stimulus is coming
By Adam Shell, USA TODAY
Updated 1d 3h ago
NEW YORK – Like a drug addict, a dependent Wall Street hopes the Federal Reserve will inject the economy and markets with a fresh dose of monetary stimulus to stave off withdrawal caused by the end of the Fed’s current stimulus program, a slowing economy and debt-related turmoil in Europe.
The Fed kicks off a two-day meeting today on interest rate policy at a time when fears of an economic relapse are rising and investors are looking for assurances from the Fed that it is ready to act to keep the recovery on track. The meeting follows Greece’s closely watched election on Sunday, which ended in a market-friendly way with a win by the party that backs Greece remaining in the euro and living up to its bailout agreements.
Since the financial crisis in late 2008, the Fed has announced three rounds of stimulus. In each case, the U.S. stock market reacted favorably, with gains of 80%, 33% and 29%, respectively. The goal of the Fed’s unconventional programs was to boost economic growth by driving down borrowing costs on mortgages, while inflating prices on risky assets like stocks, in an effort to make Americans feel better off financially and make them more willing to spend.
And even though the economy remains sluggish and the stock gains have gotten smaller with each successive round of stimulus, investors have gotten conditioned to thinking stocks can only go up with Fed assistance.
“The market has become a junkie for Fed stimulus,” says Edward Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research. “Investors will go through withdrawal if they don’t get it.”
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The Sword of Damocles perpetually hangs above Obama’s reelection prospects.
It still amazes me how Rove and company manage to pin the blame for everything that goes wrong anywhere on the planet on Obama.