The Housing Bubble

It’s also a sign of a weak economy.

Housing demand has fallen to 15 year lows ??

Really ?? How is the rental market doing…Isn’t that housing ??

Demand for SFR is at 1997 levels. Your knowledge about supply/demand is equal to your vast construction experience.

Answer the question RAL…Arn’t rental units housing and has demand gone down or up….Coward…”Demand” for housing may have shifted product but its still housing as any expert in residential construction would know…LIKE YOU…

You got your answer liar. Housing demand as measured by your employer NAR is at 15 year lows.

“residential” construction? You’re pathetic.

But could it be, because of manipulation of interest rates, inventory, FHA requirements, NAR propaganda, media, inflation, etc, that the Powers That Be have succeeded in making a stretched out U out of the V?

If they can create real inflation (including wage inflation), yes. But I’m not seeing that. Until I do it seems like there’s still a disaster waiting to happen…and meanwhile I live in a place where everything still sells for pretty much peak prices.

I don’t disagree on the thermodynamics. But the kinetics…

“The land alone is worth more than the 1987 price, especially in DC.”

1987, land was roughly $300/acre. And today it it’s $700-1000/acre.

And if you think prices will magically stop falling from their current inflated 2003 levels, you’re in for a shock.

In my neck of the woods, land ranges from $500,000 to $1 million an acre. They aren’t making any more of it, ya know.

And if you think prices will magically stop falling from their current inflated 2003 levels, you’re in for a shock.

Depends on the house, Master Truthy-ness. Can you find “a” house that falls below 2003 levels? Of course. But it’s probably a tear-down, or needs so much work that making it habitable would bring the effective price above 2003 levels anyway. Or, it’s an artsy condo in some “historic” small town. Or it’s a spec house in Stockton that never had the job base to support it. Or you’re facing a 45-minute parking lot on route 270 each day.

The question is, would a house in my neighborhood in 2003-ish condition sell for less than a 2003 price? Possibly as a short sale or a lucky foreclosure. But I don’t see it being the norm.

I like that you used the word “magically.” Actually, this manufactured firming price floor, if you will, IS being created by magic: manipulated rates, propaganda, accounting tricks. Now, can the magic floor endure? Not forever: just long enough until inflation catches up with it. I think this is what the Fed and the politicians are counting on.

And the deflationary spiral rages on regardless of the efforts of your temple moneychangers.

Enjoy the ride down.

“The question is, would a house in my neighborhood…”

I thought you were referring to housing in general and the HBB’ers that continue to rent, but I see now that you’re second-guessing yourself. If you are sure, there is no question…

It’s interesting you chose the word “screwed.”

‘HBB folks are waiting for housing to ‘crater’ so that they can ’snap up’.

What? I’ve owned land. It’s got pros and cons, but I’ve got no fetish about it. The lack of mobility is something that weighted on me.

Muggy, there is no such thing as “housing in general.”

Ben, if your thought is that you don’t want to own any land because of the lack mobility, then why bother following housing prices at all? Maybe this should be the Rent Bubble Blog or the RV bubble blog.

GS, I would venture to say that probably the biggest cost to home ownership after PITI is the cost of ‘making the house your own’. Painting first, then new carpets, then fixtures, then new furniture, the remodeling because you saw something in a magazine or some friends house or perhaps because the house didn’t flow from day one but because housing is going up so I need to buy now.

‘can paint the walls any color they like’

One of the common things about foreclosures is the awful paint colors, especially in kids bedrooms. It takes a lot of paint to cover up deep red or purple.

Yeah but it’s really worth losing $150k in order to proceed in covering up those hideous bedroom colors…. honestly.

One of the common things about foreclosures is the awful paint colors, especially in kids bedrooms. It takes a lot of paint to cover up deep red or purple.

On the eighth day, God created Kilz. And, Ben, I’m sure you’re quite used to using Kilz as the first coat on those awful-looking walls.

I have a real question: is there a way to take paint off of walls so you could start fresh with new paint? I’ve lived in old apartments and you can tell there are 50 coats of paint on the wall and it looks horrible. Are you stuck just painting and repainting, are you stuck replacing the drywall, or is there some other good remedy?

You’ll have to replace the drywall.

You can strip wood, but that is just the trim. Would repainting the dry wall and removing, stripping and repainting all the trim and plates get you the improved look without having to strip and/or replace everything? I think the problem with the continuous repainting is when it covers the edges of the vents and stuff.

I’ve lived in old apartments and you can tell there are 50 coats of paint ??

And its likely lead based given you said “Old” apartment, so, don’t try and remove it….

are you stuck replacing the drywall, or is there some other good remedy ??

Not sure what you are trying to accomplish but, there is no need to remove the drywall…You can re-float the wall with mud and then texture to your desires…If you floated the wall to a level 4 surface (smooth), the finishing paint would look like a brand new house…

Thank you, eco. I may be lucky in that several of my rooms have hideous wallpaper which the previous owners seemed to live with. Some looks like 1950’s (original), some is definitely 70’s, and some is 80’s. It all looks bad, but it saved the walls from coats of paint.

So what do you do with the wallpaper? I have painted-over 70s wallpaper in a bathroom and I don’t know what you do with that stuff.

I may be lucky in that several of my rooms have hideous wallpaper which the previous owners seemed to live with. Some looks like 1950’s (original), some is definitely 70’s, and some is 80’s. It all looks bad, but it saved the walls from coats of paint.

It takes a bit of doing — with an all-day steamer — but you can remove wallpaper. Usually, the wall underneath is in good condition. But, as always, YMMV.

It is worth the money to hire someone to remove old wallpaper. And I say this as a dedicated do-it-yourselfer. There are some things that are not worth the sweat equity.

I heartily second the notion to hire someone to remove wallpaper. My ex-husband was in the business and I was always the one who got stuck removing the old wallpaper. It isn’t much fun trust me.

Go over the top of the old drywall with new 1/4″ drywall.

Hmmm, I have the steamer. I can give it a shot but I suspect that i will regret it.

It’s not just a simple matter of removing the wallpaper. You then have to get all the glue remnants off, repair the inevitable rips in the surface of the gypsum board, fill in any holes or gouges with spackle and sand it down. Of course if you have an unused room or you don’t mind living with a work in progress, you could start in to see how it goes.

I have a cheap wagner steamer and I didn’t think removing wallpaper was a big deal. Mine was $50 I think. Of course I only had 1 layer of wallpaper.

You just hold the steamer on the edge of the wallpaper for a minute and you see the stuff start to bubble up. Then you scrape it with a flat scraper. They also sell roller things to put tiny holes in the wallpaper. it’s like $2 and helps.

You can also use the steamer on anything that is glued down: Vinyl floors, even wood glue. It’s awesome.

However, the scraping does damage your drywall some. If you care, be sure to use a flat paint as flat paint supposedly masks imperfections in walls more than satin or high gloss paint does.

The last time I removed wallpaper was in the early 90’s. I rented a steamer and as I recall the job went fairly smoothly.

Of course, after removing the old wallpaper I hung new wallpaper, so I didn’t have to do much more than spackle the cracks in the plaster. This was an old house in the northeast that was constructed around 1900-1910. The walls were plaster and lath.

‘A lot of people have lost more than they were “worth”.’

Reverse leverage is a byatch. But technically, don’t underwater borrowers generally have the recourse of transferring the negative part of their net worth to the lender (e.g. through a short sale or jingle mail)?

Yes, but then you don’t “own” anymore.

People had no house wealth in 2001/2002, they had a bunch 2003-2006, then in 2012 they have nothing again. Only difference between renters and buyers is renters never had the wealth, buyers had some paper wealth for a brief time. End of the day, they both ended up with nothing.

I look at my housing “wealth” the same way.

Actually, I place the highest value on the depth and breadth of my relationships with others. These range from having a new friend to share a laugh with at midnight last night to being able to call my mother and father this morning to see how they’re doing.

“Actually, I place the highest value on the depth and breadth of my relationships with others. These range from having a new friend to share a laugh with at midnight last night to being able to call my mother and father this morning to see how they’re doing.”

The two aren’t mutually exclusive. You can have material wealth and intangible wealth of the sort you describe.

“The two aren’t mutually exclusive. You can have material wealth and intangible wealth of the sort you describe.”

In absolute terms, this is true, but a lot of people sell their souls to get material wealth. It seems to be getting harder and harder to achieve both.

Take it from someone in the trailer park, you have to stop giving away your wealth to impress other people. After that it’s not as hard as it would seem.

“If 30% off sells really slow and 40% sells fast, most homes are currently selling at 40% off.”

What if most homes are selling at 30%, albiet slowly? C-S says 30%.

I guess we should wait for the fiscal cliff episode to play out before concluding DC has bottomed out?

Will the fiscal cliff hurt the economy? Wall Street says maybe
Posted by Suzy Khimm at 11:31 AM ET, 06/19/2012

After last summer’s debt-ceiling debacle, Wall Street is divided about whether the fiscal cliff could harm the economy. On the one hand, Barclays Capital surveyed its institutional investors, and they were overwhelmingly confident that Congress could reach a deal without adverse harm to the economy.

A separate poll, of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association’s own economic roundtable, was much more pessimistic. Nearly all of the firms polled believed that “uncertainty over fiscal policy will continue to negatively impact GDP growth in 2013, split fairly evenly between those expecting a negative impact of up to 100 [basis points] and those expecting a negative impact of over 100 bps.” That said, the majority of those polled expect a temporary extension of the Bush tax cuts as a stopgap measure.

The split may reflect the mixed messages that Washington has sent on the fiscal cliff: Members of Congress have issued dire warnings about “taxmaggedon,” and the House Speaker says that he welcomes another debt-ceiling fight. At the same time, the Center on Budget and Policy points out that the fiscal cliff is more like a fiscal slope, as the biggest changes after January 1 will be phased in gradually. Over the next few months, however, the market’s outlook on the fiscal cliff could take a downward turn if Congress fails to assure the public that some kind of deal can be struck.
…

“It will be off 60% when it hits the 2000 level.”

I’d love to see that, but I am still worried about distribution. I like the resources of the city and I work here, so I prefer to be in the highly commutable areas. Most are down, but still way stickier than other areas. I have heard that the really swanky parts of Northern Alexandria (near Old Town) are back to their peaks. That is a microscopic part of the market and I’m not going to end up in a place like that, but it is still sad to hear.

Not even remotely sad enough to buy at these prices, but a little sad anyway.

They don’t appraise…they work to not get fired. MAI means, as the common joke goes “made as instructed”.

If appraisers never assumed that prices rise, how would one EVER get a higher appraised value on a home?

There is a reason that home appraisals have a “Market Condition Addendum” that notes whether a market is increasing, stable, or declining–a recent appraiser made that abundantly clear to me:

This appraiser said to me openly that regardless of what the comparable sales were, he would not increase the value of my home more than a few percent over what I paid, in part because he didn’t want the value to seem too much higher than I paid to the bank, and in part because they still consider the market to be “flat to declining”. He ignored one of the most applicable comps in the market that I gave him (same vintage, size, lot size, school district, etc.), which traded within the past several months, and was a full 10% higher than his final appraised value.

In other words, he wasn’t giving his assessment of the value of the home, independent of knowing what I paid, or what was expected of him…he was coming up with a number that he thought was going to be beyond question for the lender, OK for the refinance and supported by the comps that he chose to use.

The strong implication from his comment to me was that if the market was considered by the appraiser community as “flat to increasing, or increasing”, he would have felt freer to give a higher value, and use a different comp set that would have supported that value.

To believe that appraisers give their honest assessment of value without regard to market conditions is naive.

“they still consider the market to be “flat to declining”.”

Because it is.

As an appraiser for 30 years I will tell you that the appraiser will do a good job, if his job lets him do a good job.

As to raising appraisals when the market is going up, everyone wants that.

But when the market is going down they don’t want the appraiser consider that.

It is hell to try to appraise in a falling market!

I used to tell the buyers to not worry about my appraisal as it is just my opinion, you, the buyer, have to decide if you want to buy the house regardless of what my appraisal says.

Everyone wants a high appraisal! No one wants a low appraisal, and how can the appraiser meet those requirements?

“Everyone wants a high appraisal! No one wants a low appraisal”

Ummm…not everyone. Only those with skin in the game.

I used to tell the buyers to not worry about my appraisal as it is just my opinion,

We’ve known this all along. At least you’re admitting you people are clueless.

I want a really low appraisal — of the house I want to buy!

False consensus according to who? But I’ll play your game. What went wrong?

Concensus does not make a conclusion correct. If you don’t think about things in that way, there isn’t any “game” worth playing!

You’re right Blue Sky, but that’s how it works in the real world.

Wrong consensus by millions are acted on everyday.

Doesn’t make it right, just what is.

“Concensus does not make a conclusion correct.”

I would say, “does not necessarily make a conclusion correct.” But then taken to an extreme why do we have courts, a judicial system?

The point is, without blame, there is no consequence. With no consequence, we get things that go wrong. Like illegal 10 year wars and stuff. And then we elect the next guy, who promises to end the nonsense, but obviously sees no consequence in not doing so…

Consequences? What kind of consequences do you think you can impose on any of these Presidents?

Job termination, for starters.

“Solutions come from identifying what went wrong, not who is to blame. ”

You’re using your science lens to frame a politics/economics scene.

I observe this: politics and economics have no standards, and when the conditions change, they just make chit up.

So yeah, blame can be assigned here. Where’s Alpha?

‘Where’s Alpha’

Out back, grinding an ax.

LOL

I blame the protectionists.

Romney’s Bain Capital Invested in Companies That Moved Jobs Overseas
June 21, 2012, 6:21 p.m. PDT
The Washington Post News Service with Bloomberg News

Mitt Romney’s financial company, Bain Capital, invested in a series of firms that specialized in relocating jobs done by American workers to new facilities in low-wage countries like China and India.

During the nearly 15 years that Romney was actively involved in running Bain, a private equity firm that he founded, it owned companies that were pioneers in the practice of shipping work from the United States to overseas call centers and factories making computer components, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
…

“I blame the protectionists.”

Do we have any in power? I wish.

what has the President done to make the economy better ??

Well, I take the position that there is not much he could have done given the circumstances we faced/face….

Here is the question I would ask you…What do you think he should have done ??

I think you are wrong on that..he could have let some banks fail and sold them off….we are over banked anyway.

He didn’t have to bail out AIG/ GS and give them free money….and let CIT twist in the wind….It was the freezing of credit to small businesses that made this worse then it should have been

CIT provided the small loans and advances on accounts receivables so necessary to small business cash flows.

When they couldn’t pay their employees/suppliers they went broke. then the chain reaction…hundreds of thousands of jobs lost each month.

Big business had Billions they could have called on…Why did GE get money/loans?

Well, I take the position that there is not much he could have done given the circumstances we faced/face….

I hope scdave doesn’t mind, but I’ll answer that one.

Obama could have stopped the now-standard yearly borrowing of $1.5 trillion to cover up all the problems. He could have introduced the austerity that must occur since a government budget isn’t exempted from the basic laws of economics. There is no free money; the $4.5 trillion borrowed under Obama alone has to be paid back, and that’s only possible from taxation, which at this rate will hit the future 10 times harder than today.

Obama is responsible for covering up the Second Great Depression. We were going to have one, no matter what he did, but he chose deceit. So now we have a future collapse that will make 2008 look tame. Kicking the can down the road can’t keep the can away forever.

Always remember that “not making it worse” is the same thing as making it better. Obama made it worse. Period.

What Should Obama Have Done to Improve Our Economy???

I view this as an employment issue, so making it economically feasible to hire a new employee is key.

#1) Encourage rather than discourage the search for petroleum products. The US Govmnt has withheld permits to drill in many areas. Drilling encourages employment, finding oil raises the supply which will eventually lower the cost of fuel. Lowering the cost of fuel gives us all more disposable income that we can spend on other things.

2) Encourage the repealing of Obamacare. Obamacare has resulted in higher insurance premiums, reduced employment (since companies don’t know how much it’s going to cost them and the decision makers need to know that) and will decrease the quality of the health care in our country. Government does nothing in an efficient manner and giving them the control over our healthcare will only lead to a bureaucratic mess.

3) Reduce the regulatory burden. Just try doing something where the government has the ability to control or issue permits. It adds to the cost, discourages investment and entreprenuers. Instead the governmental bureaucracy has exploded in his term.

4) Quit bailing out companies that deserve to fail.

5) Quit promising to bail out homeowners when they will never be able to pay for the house that they bought.

6. Expedite projects like the Keystone Pipeline, rather than standing in the way. Have you heard about the economic boom happening in the Dakotas? Well there is also a boom in the Permian Basin in West Texas/ SE NM. If any of you need a job I know you can find one in either of these areas.

The President’s job is to manage the overall well-being of the nation. To that end, I think he’s done a more-than-reasonable job of maintaining the status quo for the greatest number of our citizens in the face of impossible economic circumstances.

Yes, we’re in the middle of a great unravelling, and yes, a lot of people are belatedly coming to the realization that life as they knew it in the fin-de-ciecle first world has come to a screeching halt.

And yes, the Boomers’ retirements and the next couple of generations are likely skewered. But given the consequences of his simply letting the world economy collapse (as some of us secretly hoped for) in 2008, in retrospect I’ll opt for the angst rather than the apocalypse.

When we were filming “American Visionaries” in LV (2008), I told the interviewer that if Obama were elected I thought he’d “triage the institutions and try to manage the economy down as gradually as possible to save as much of the system as he could while avoiding an all-out civil war.” So far, that’s precisely what he’s done.

Thats precisely how I feel Ahansen….I am quite sure nobody, and I mean “nobody” would have embraced the alternative…

Maybe not if it turned out to be as bad as you think. But I think there were many willing to take the risk to try to get back to something more honest in hopes that it wouldn’t get that bad and would be worth the pain in the end.

Carl,
While I would certainly have handled the restructuring differently (ohhhh how differently), if you’ve not already done so I’d suggest you read Studs Terkel’s oral histories of the Great Depression, “Hard Times” before taking the optimistic high road.

However, we may yet get a chance to test your hypothesis.

“#1) Encourage rather than discourage the search for petroleum products. The US Govmnt has withheld permits to drill in many areas. Drilling encourages employment, finding oil raises the supply which will eventually lower the cost of fuel. Lowering the cost of fuel gives us all more disposable income that we can spend on other things.”

As I recall, the Obama administration had been issuing permits to drill in the Gulf until the blowout and subsequent oil mess. The ensuing outcry put a halt to some of that. Floridians were not so keen to allow drilling off the Atlantic shores after that.

“Obamacare has resulted in higher insurance premiums”

As I recall, my premiums were going up and coverage was declining before Obamacare.

“Reduce the regulatory burden. Just try doing something where the government has the ability to control or issue permits.”

Is the federal government responsible for all of the requisite permits? I thought a lot of building-related permits and land use regulations were local.

Which regulations should we get rid of?

“Expedite projects like the Keystone Pipeline, rather than standing in the way.”

Should the folks directly affected by potential spills be allowed to weigh in before these projects are expedited? How about those affected by eminent domain? I have heard there are some folks in Nebraska objecting to the Keystone Pipeline.

How many jobs are we talking about? How long will they last? Boom and bust is very bad for local economies.

Thank youm h2bh. It’s not a pretty job but somebody had to do it.

That makes two of us.

Here’s a gal who’s joining with the guys.

Ditto. Not making much (actually making practically nothing). But not losing anything.

Or is it loosing?

Be careful what you loose.

“Or is it loosing?”

Financial loss expressed as a verb is single-o losing. The double-o spelling only applies when used as an online insult: LOOSER

BTW, some radio guy yesterday was saying the Fed has actually bailed out MMkt funds about 300 times to keep them from breaking the buck? anyone else hear that?

that hits kinda close to home!

“I know of one guy.”

Lol. This post made my day.

For starters, implementing any plan like that will require co-operation from local law enforcement.

Did you read my post or the legal brief? Local law enforcement is already cooperating. Want to know how the liberals (in MA anyway) get to confiscate your guns and then sell them with no due process? It starts with your wife, or more specifically, your soon-to-be-ex wife. She files a motion for a restraining order because some liberal divorce lawyer said it would look better when it came time for the courts to determine who get’s what assets (and it’s all about winning at all costs).

Even though you’re legally licensed and broke no laws, the friendly State Police suspend your firearms license and confiscate your firearms as you’re not allowed to have a firearms license (or firearms) if you’re subject to a restraining order (regardless of merit). Then the State Police ship the confiscated firearms to a private 3rd party who immediately charges you hundreds of dollars per item to retrieve them. Turns out, the police can’t charge you fees for storing guns taken without your consent, but private parties can. If you can’t pay or don’t pay, they auction them off and still send you a bill…

Despite what you think you know, they are out to get you.

“The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.” The Usual Suspects

And we’ll all be sitting out front, guarding it with our bought-on-credit AR-15s.

While I have nothing but love for the venerable AR15 gas-impingement driven rifle, and have one myself, if you’re going to go in debt to buy one, might as well go all out and get a modern piston-driven system like the FN SCAR. Both reliable and accurate…

“For starters, implementing any plan like that will require co-operation from local law enforcement. And those hillbillies like their guns too much to hand them over to the ATF.”

You can tell when a liberal is on the losing end of an argument easily. He a) calls you racist or b) calls you hillbilly/hick/rube.

“It starts with your wife, or more specifically, your soon-to-be-ex wife. She files a motion for a restraining order because some liberal divorce lawyer said it would look better when it came time for the courts to determine who get’s what assets (and it’s all about winning at all costs).”

Wow! So much to parse, so little time.

So if you have a good relationship with your wife, you are OK. OTOH, if you are a little whacked out on conspiracy theories, then the wife may get spooked and decide it is time to leave the sinking ship.

And only liberal divorce lawyers would take this tactic because the conservative ones are ethical and not focused on winning at all costs? Got it. Thanks for setting me straight.

And only liberal divorce lawyers would take this tactic because the conservative ones are ethical and not focused on winning at all costs? Got it. Thanks for setting me straight.

I can’t let this one go by. Because I used to date a conservative divorce lawyer. Oh, yes I did. Trust me, he was very focused on winning at all costs.

“losing end” - that’s funny! If you lose your ass, your bowels may, indeed become looser -

“All because he wants to take away our guns? I think yes.”

Which is obviously why he signed legislation making it legal to carry in national parks.

When I lived down there, everyone had illegal guns. My dad once fended off a home invasion near Cuernavaca with an illegal gun, killing one of the robbers in the process. The other robber shot my dad in the leg before fleeing.

However, having a pistol won’t do you much good if 4 guys with machine guns jump you.

However, having a pistol won’t do you much good if 4 guys with machine guns jump you.

That’s where community and neighbors needs to come into play. Used to be, a town was hit by raiders, the town militia came running. Today, we rely on “government” for security. Maybe our forefathers new something we didn’t…

Militias are fine, as long as you recognize that it entails a drop in productivity.

Unless you want to give all of our unemployed youth something to do. Don’t even have to pay them. Just give them carte blanche to extract “user fees” from everyone with out of state plates.

Militias are what you see in frontier, Third world societies.

Back to the Future.

Just give them carte blanche to extract “user fees” from everyone with out of state plates.

Chuckle. With all of the California plates up here, I might just support that!

Militias are fine, as long as you recognize that it entails a drop in productivity.

The problem with (large) standing armies is that they are expensive… which often leads to politicians finding justifications for their use.

“…the anti-gun establishment wants to show how easy it is to purchase guns in the US and ship them to Mexico,…”

Right. I guess that’s why GW Bush instituted theso-called “gun-walking” program in 2006. Because he was such an anti-gun nut.

I have to laugh when I hear about people stockpiling weapons and ammunition for when “the shtf”. Anyone who’s ever tried to keep the birds from eating all the cherries from their orchard tell you how successful you’re likely to be at staving off the ravaging hoards with your home arsenal. And militias are going to want to get paid for protecting your crops….

“I have to laugh when I hear about people stockpiling weapons and ammunition for when “the shtf”.”

All those people are just like the heros in movies. They aren’t likely to get shot while mowing down the opposition, but if they do get hit it’ll be minor and won’t slow them down.

As long as they don’t come across another movie hero type…

Right. I guess that’s why GW Bush instituted theso-called “gun-walking” program in 2006. Because he was such an anti-gun nut.

The difference is that Fast & Furious, as run by AG Holder and those under him was on a much larger scale than the previous operations: over 2000 firearms walked under Holder vs. 400 under the prior administration.

Additionally, no indictments had been handed out during the Bush years of gun walking… obviously a failed operation. Why would Holder scale up an operation that was a failure from the previous administration and was receiving complaints from the lower level ATG agents? The facts speak for themselves…

-“I have to laugh when I hear about people stockpiling weapons and ammunition for when “the shtf”.”

-”All those people are just like the heros in movies.”

Wolverines!!

Wolverines!!

LOL.

I am now obligated to watch Red Dawn tonight… damn you.

Wolverines!!

Hail to the Victors Valiant!
Hail to the Conquering Heroes!

Okay, I’ll stop now.

“Right. I guess that’s why GW Bush instituted theso-called “gun-walking” program in 2006. Because he was such an anti-gun nut.”

Thanks, Alena. I knew the programs were started under Bush, I just didn’t have the date and didn’t feel comfortable posting without that level of specificity.

“Why would Holder scale up an operation that was a failure from the previous administration and was receiving complaints from the lower level ATG agents? ”

Um, maybe because the aforementioned previously appointed upper level ATG agents were insisting on it?

I did read complaints of this (blaming the US) in the Mexican media, but even Mexicans weren’t buying it (judging from the online replies) and instead blamed their own government’s corruption for its inability to stamp out the drug cartels and get violence and crime back under control.

a lot of the guys in the FBI are accountants

I think the FBI is generally a professional and useful organization. Because of it’s propensity for investigative crime fighting, I think the FBI puts a high value on intellectual capacity. From what I can tell of the ATF and DEA especially, if you can shoot a gun or fit in with the motorcycle gang/drug dealer/gang banger crowd, you’re a good fit.

The CIA is just spooky (no pun intended), but at least their charter directs their operations externally. The NSA on the other hand…

The CIA is just spooky (no pun intended), but at least their charter directs their operations externally. The NSA on the other hand…

In my wide circle of friends, there is someone who worked for the CIA. That was her entire career. All she said about it was that she was a data analyst. That was it. End of discussion.

Not to worry. We shared the long-distance bicycling experience as solo women, so there was plenty to talk about on that front.

Y’know, that carriage return (aka the “Enter” key) is a wonderful thing.

You’re really invested in this, aren’t you, Smithers?

Got Iran Contra - Iran contra was an intent to arm our enemies. Again I would point out that 2000 guns is but a rounding error in total gun ownership of the drug cartels. I would also note that the murder rate in Juarez and other border towns was rising long before Obama even took office.

I would also note that the murder rate in Juarez and other border towns was rising long before Obama even took office.

As was exquisitely described in Charles Bowden’s books, Murder City and Down by the River.

Note: These books can be pretty gory. Just a warning from your HBB Librarian.

Again I would point out that 2000 guns is but a rounding error in total gun ownership of the drug cartels.

It was 2000 guns, one of which was directly attributable to the death of an American border agent. That’s what your missing… one of the guns F&F let go to Mexico came back to kill one of our own. To minimize this fact, is to lose sight of the fact that the ATF and the AG need to be held accountable for an operational screw up that led to a loss of life.

one of the guns F&F let go to Mexico came back to kill one of our own. To minimize this fact, is to lose sight of the fact that the ATF and the AG need to be held accountable for an operational screw up that led to a loss of life

1. You mean the gun show loop hole hasn’t lead to Americans being killed with guns.
How many innocent Americans and police are killed in the US due to our lax gun laws.
2. You mean this criminal wouldn’t have had a gun except for Fast and Furious.

Seriously how can those that fight every gun law throw a stone from their glass house.

I’ll tell you I have a friend on the boarder and he’s had his house broken into twice both times they found his well hidden guns. This happens many times a day in El Paso. The state of Mexico is well armed 2000 guns is a rounding error.

seriously NE

Can’t you acknowledge that

1. Mexican drug gangs have a huge # of guns that dwarfs the number in this case.
2. That the murder rate in Mexico was skyrocketing prior to this.
3. That the person who shot the adgent would have had a gun from another source if this gun was not available.
4. That our gun show loop holes and soft laws allow guns and ammunition to flow freely to Mexico and even criminals in the United states and that this leads to the death of many innocent people and police officers.

This is really no Iran Contra, it is being drummed up for political purposes.

it is being drummed up for political purposes.

I think everyone agrees on that, but nobody agrees on which political purposes and which side is doing the drumming. One man’s “gun show loop holes” and “soft gun laws” that you think are the problem are another man’s Second Amendment rights that were intentionally being made to look like the problem (and therefore undermined) by this.

Don’t get me wrong Carl.
I support the second amendment, concealed carry and own several guns. I’m just saying that if you are going to have a seizure because an illegally acquired gun was used in a murder there are a ton of ways these guns get into the hands of criminals in much larger volume. The gun show loophole being but one. Just institute a 48 hour hold on all gun purchases with a background check and you would see a large # of guns that end up in criminal hands disappear. These jokers waxing on about this case would hardly support such a law even though it would save many lives of innocent civilians and cops. This story is a non issue. I want one of them to tell us the Iran Contra story too.

Seriously, measton.

This is a tempest in a teapot during an election year.

One dead border patrol officer doesn’t really rise to the same level of outrage as oh, say, fomenting a war based on information that had been discredited in the European press six months before Bush’s Secretary of State used it to justify invading Iraq. (That was what? 5000 American lives lost? 7,000?)

Or POTUS claiming he’d no knowledge of Iran Contra

Let’s face it, Mexico is corrupt. Mexico’s police authorities are corrupt. Mexico’s twelve ruling families are corrupt. And undoubtedly some of the American agents into Mexico are corrupt. Chances are the guns were sent down bypassed certain channels for reasons that apparently need some sort of official cover we aren’t privvy to yet. But this bleep is tiny potatoes compared to the wanna-be scandal they’re trying to blow it into. Next.

If you really believe that, then you are a serious kool-aid drinker. If the so called progressives want to overturn the constitution and have government control every aspect of our lives, then do it at the ballot box. If you can’t get the votes, then too bad for you, sit down and try again next time. To go to the extreme of running guns to Mexico in order to turn public opinion against the 2nd amendment, is immoral, is anti-American and is also criminal.

“If the so called progressives want to overturn the constitution and have government control every aspect of our lives”

I don’t buy this Republican meme. It is whacko conspiracy theorist territory. I do see Republicans in Florida “cleaning” voter rolls and other states limiting voter registration efforts. These are actual laws that have been passed. I am worried that we could tip into fascist territory, but if it comes, it will come from the right not the left.

“To go to the extreme of running guns to Mexico in order to turn public opinion against the 2nd amendment, is immoral, is anti-American and is also criminal.”

I also don’t buy this. Where are all of the gun control laws that the Democrats passed when they had “total control” of Congress and the White House?

“I don’t buy this Republican meme.”

I’m not selling anything. The facts about the program speak for themselves.

“I also don’t buy this. Where are all of the gun control laws that the Democrats passed when they had “total control” of Congress and the White House?”

You are smart enough to know the answer, but I will entertain your question. There is no public support for Gun Control, it’s political suicide to even bring it up, F&F was a sick twisted effort to sway public opinion. It’s just that simple.

“sick twisted effort to sway public opinion”

This makes no sense. Why would they resort to shipping guns to Mexico? Most Americans are too self-absorbed to notice what is going on in Mexico.

If they wanted to sway public opinion against guns, they should have had a program to arm gangs in this country and set them loose in our cities and towns.

““I don’t buy this Republican meme.”

I’m not selling anything. The facts about the program speak for themselves.
“

I wasn’t talking about the Fast and Furious program at that point. I was talking about your statement that “progressives want to overturn the constitution and have government control every aspect of our lives”. I always feel like I have stepped through the looking glass when I hear these things. It’s like you live in an alternate universe.

Progressives want to preserve the constitution and its balance of power. Progressives want government to counterbalance the excesses of corporations and the capitalist system, not to destroy them.

Especially the small town and rural areas. To get a critical mass, the people who would need to be swayed against guns would be those who live outside of the big cities.

Gas dropped to around $3.19 around here just before Memorial Day.

And even thought WTI is around $80 and still dropping, unleaded regular is back up to $3.49.

Locally, our “competition” has gone from 20 major oil companies in 1975-80 to (basically) four. Phillips/Conoco. BP, Quik Trip, and a couple of chains of Quikee Marts affiliated with Kroger. A few Sinclairs and Murphy Express stations here and there.

Easy to collude, when only 4-5 people/corporations have to agree.

Isn’t that what the Missionaries of Charity do ??

Are they Union ?? Because, you can bet your sweet a$$ that the AFL-CIO will unionize the local “Dead-Beat-Corpse-Collection-Association”…

I thought it was Monty Python

“I’m not dead…..I’m getting better”

“No you are not, you’ll be stone dead in a moment..”

Are they Union ??

Last time I checked, they took vows of poverty.

Last time I checked, they took vows of poverty.

Got a NYC buddy who’s a nun. She’s one of the most cheerful, fun-loving people I know.

Next time I’m in Manhattan, we’re going out for a margarita.

FYI, not all “nuns” are required to take vows of poverty. And not all “sisters” are “nuns” (however, all nuns are sisters).

Have I confused you yet?

Yes, very much. But then pretty much all my knowledge about such things comes from novels. Did the Brother Cadfael books ever address the issue?

And both of you can times yourselves by the 10’s of millions unfortunately…

In the mean time, we have Larry Elision buying one of the Hawaiian Islands…

In the mean time, we have Larry Elision buying one of the Hawaiian Islands…

If we don’t get raises this year, there’s gonna be a lotta unhappy campers at the database/operating system/server company.

If we don’t get raises this year, there’s gonna be a lotta unhappy campers at the database/operating system/server company.

Do yourself a favor and start looking at some of the startup big-data companies in Silly Valley, Boston, etc. If you have any sort of DB kernel code experience, you can expect a big jump in salary and stock to boot.

I’m not gonna move to a place where a condo fetches 600K, not for a 30% pay increase.

Especially where the union thugs own the local government.

We need a serious third party that stands for smaller government, less taxes, personal freedom (along with the freedom to fail), that doesn’t cater to special interests, corporations, Wall St., the MIC, and takes the constitution seriously.

They already exist, warts and all. So far the average American has little interest in that.

It already exists and has for decades and has local influence in many states: The Green Party.

I am always amazed at how a political party the size of the Green Party with elected officials in many states, is always ignored.

They already exist, warts and all. So far the average American has little interest in that.

You know what they say about Democracy? It’s two wolves and a sheep discussing what’s for dinner…

With the 1 percenters, corporate interests, and the Citizens United/Super PAC decision on one side, 25+-% of American citizens on government assistance/SNAP programs, as well as Minorites and Unions on the other side, seems to me there should be enough in the middle to make it difficult for the rest to steal from us and drive us into the ground…

I agree Northeasterner…

Only question is where can we get money to fight the good
fight ??

I have been waiting for him/her to rear their head and put a stop to it for a long time now….You know the person I am talking about…The mega Billionaire who steps up and says, screw both of you…This is our platform, this is our candidate, and I just wrote a 2-billion dollar check to insure that we get elected…

I am always amazed at how a political party the size of the Green Party with elected officials in many states, is always ignored.

The problem with the green party is that they are no different than the dems when it comes to issues like housing, the environment, “equal rights”, labor, etc.

The Tea Party came closest to the ideals of which I support, but the repubs essentially took it over, and the repubs are owned by Wall St. and corporate interests…

and I just wrote a 2-billion dollar check to insure that we get elected…

Personally I think money IS the problem. I used to think things could change by working at the grass roots level. But at some point (especially lately) the money trump card bought the message and the message appears to be getting eaten up by lazy voters.

I haven’t thought through the unintended consequences, but I’m thinking publicly funded elections might be the way to go. Then starting at the grass roots level might have a chance.

but I’m thinking publicly funded elections might be the way to go. Then starting at the grass roots level might have a chance ?

Well sure it would…So what do you think the chances are for that type of legislation to pass ?? Here you go Dems & Rep’s…Vote for this so we can take away all your money and allow a third party candidate to have a fighting chance…I mean…Its in the best interest of you country isn’t it ??

Well you know how that ends…Give me the two billion dollar Angel…After we get that third party elected under the platform like Northeasterner suggested then we can get on to campaign funding reform..

But only if all parties get the same amount of money parceled out in stages. and the same amount of Free political ad time If you are on all 50 states ballots..

No pacs no individual donations nothing…then why would there be a need for lobbyists? Just like the debate yesterday on eliminating corporate taxes, lobbyists to lobby for tax breaks, on what taxes????

So the Ross Perot 96 debacle will never happen again he gets $8 million of your taxpayer dollars and is barred from the debates, because he didn’t want to spend it until after the debates since he had no idea how much he would have.

Yes ALL parties even the communists…and have open debates…the first 2 all participates then the top 7, 5 and lastly 3 there will never be less then 3 in any debate

——but I’m thinking publicly funded elections might be the way to go

seems to me there should be enough in the middle to make it difficult for the rest to steal from us and drive us into the ground

We’re too busy discussing how Payton Manning is gonna bring the Broncos back to their former glory.

We’re too busy discussing how Payton Manning is gonna bring the Broncos back to their former glory.

And we’re eagerly looking to the newest University of Arizona men’s basketball team recruiting class.

Will these guys lead us back to the Lute Olson glory years of the 1990s? Or will the UA guys continue to fold when they run up against bigger, more physical teams?

We’re too busy discussing how Payton Manning is gonna bring the Broncos back to their former glory.

Damn Rome and it’s precedent of Bread and Circus…

You can publicly fund elections all you want. As long as there is no control on “issue ads” there will always be private money in the elections. And that pretty much negates what the public funding is supposed to help.

As for your billionaire? Whoever he is, he is supporting Mitt Romney in this round.

As for your billionaire? Whoever he is, he is supporting Mitt Romney in this round ??

Read my post again Polly….I clearly say the “Angel” billionaire that would support the slate that Northesterner proposed…Not sum chump that throws 10 or 50 million to Romney…I am taking Bill Gates kind of doe…

I am taking Bill Gates kind of doe…

And here I thought Bill had antlers. Y’know, like a buck.

Seems a weak insult to me, using the noun form of the word instead of the adjective to name the group. There is no telling what trips some people’s triggers. I misspelled an important guy’s name once, one of those unusual umlat names, and he screamed at me for two minutes.

My father in law went to get rid of his CRD. He had to pay 16 dollars to do it. Good will wouldn’t take them. You got robbed on Craigs list.

I believe that for the really big ones. I asked the handyman at my old building to help with it. I’m sure the county charged the building to take it because of the hazardous waste. No idea why I didn’t get charged.

The 27 inch could be moved by a single person, and it fit in a regular sedan. Makes a difference.

And if I got ripped off for approximately $41, well, that amortizes out to less than a buck per month of use at this point (and decreasing), so I guess I’m OK with it.

my next upgrade to the PC gaming rig ??

And the the Apple TV…

I know the feeling!

And last night, I had to be the role model for a new trainee. Who was scared to speak on mike.

On the mike, she did okay, but not great. I had to be very gentle about telling her how to practice for improvement. You have to be that way with people who are just starting with their training — it’s that overwhelming.

I told her to do things like pick out the staff member that you’re most comfortable dealing with, then bonding with him or her. I did that when I was training, and I still make sure that I check in with that her if she’s at the station when I’m there.

I used to have to give presentations to customers and employees at a former job.

The trick is to decide what you need to communicate, then decide how you want to present/say it. Make a list/notes, and refer to them when you are talking.

This also helps keep you on the subject matter, and reduces the tendancy to go on tangents.

If you are confident you know the material, you can confidently present it.