June 27, 2012

Shades Of 2005 In Florida

The Bradenton Herald reports from Florida. “Sales of existing homes rose in May along with prices, according to figures released Thursday by the Manatee Association of Realtors. ‘What I have really noticed is the inventory of waterfront homes,’ said Sherry Flathman, a residential and commercial Realtor for Wagner Realty. ‘These homes are selling as soon as they come up — several have sold overnight.’”

The Sun Sentinel. “At the end of May, there were 5,313 single-family homes on the market in Broward, 49 percent less than a year ago. The number of condos is down 46 percent. Chip Rowand, a real estate agent for the Keyes Co. in Weston, said the market now is ’shades of 2005,’ the peak of the housing bubble. ‘The first words out of the agent’s mouth when they call me about a property is, ‘Is it still available?’ Rowand said.”

“South Florida broker Douglas Rill said he recently showed a client a three-bedroom home in good condition listed for $105,000. When they arrived, they had trouble finding parking spaces on the street because there were about 30 other buyers waiting to see the home as well. Rill said they hopped the front gate and toured the home, angering the other buyers. The property likely will fetch $130,000 or more — but not from his client. ‘He wanted to under-bid the $105,000,’ Rill said. ‘I think that’s being silly.’”

From Ocala.com. “Judy Ray, president of the Ocala/ Marion County Association of Realtors, said the increased sale prices and declining inventory were spurred by consumers’ desire to buy while prices are low. ‘People are getting tired of waiting … and from my seat, it’s not just an investor market,’ she said. ‘People are recognizing prices are not going to get any better.’”

“Homes sold for 88.5 percent of the original asking price during May 2012, the highest for the past 12 months and 3.5 percent higher than the same month a year ago. ‘People who are thinking, ‘I can get 2006 prices,’ no they can’t. If you bought your home during the boom, you’re still going to be upside down,’Ray said.”

“Florida remains No. 1 for mortgage fraud. The state had $260 million worth of fraud under investigation at the end of the first quarter of the year, up from $117 million in the fourth period of 2011, MortgageDaily.com said. The big increase is a result of law enforcement officials formally charging more suspects, the website said. North Carolina was second, with $226 million in fraud. California was third with $208 million.”

“Florida has held the top spot in four of the past five quarters and has been a regular among the top five states since the index began in early 2006.”

Tampa Bay News. “Frank Gregoire, a former chairman of the Florida Real Estate Appraisal Board and the appraisal committee for the National Association of Realtors, will testify before a congressional committee on Thursday about the impact of appraisal oversight brought about after the collapse of the housing market. Lenders are suspicious if they see that home prices and values are going up, because national numbers still show the opposite, he said. ‘As long as the appraiser can demonstrate that his data is supported and correct, the lender should just lay off,’ Gregoire said.”

“The original Home Affordable Refinance Program reduced fees and loosened eligibility requirements starting in January, but a revised government program was not fully available until March. Borrowers must be current on their payments and the loans have to be originated by May 31, 2009, and backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, the government-run companies that own about half of all home loans nationwide.”

“Nearly one-third of mortgages are underwater, according to first-quarter data from Zillow. Nearly 5 percent of mortgages carry a balance that’s twice the home’s value, Zillow said. Those homeowners now can qualify for the revised program, which eliminates a provision that required mortgages be within 125 percent of the value of the home. ‘If someone owes $300,000 on a $100,000 home, we could still look at refinancing that,’ said Doug Leever, mortgage sales manager for Miramar, Fla.-based Tropical Financial Credit Union.”

The Miami Herald. “Home prices in greater Miami rose 3.2 percent in April from a year earlier, according to S&P’s Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. While the Miami foreclosure rate has been declining steadily for more than a year, the foreclosure rate in the Miami area remained more than five times the national rate of 3.41 percent in April. The percentage of homes that are delinquent for 90 days or more dropped to 24.35 percent in April in Miami from 26.43 percent a year earlier.”

“‘Miami is still sitting on a large overhang of delinquent loans, but the slow foreclosure process is only allowing a gradual flow of these homes into the market,’ Michelle Meyer, an economist with BankofAmerica Merrill Lynch, said in a report.”

The Palm Beach Post. “Since 2007, homeowners whose banks have forgiven unpaid mortgage debt after a short sale, principal reduction or foreclosure have not had to count that money as income on their tax returns. Not everyone can benefit from the debt relief act. It only covers forgiven debt on principal residences and up to $2 million, or $1 million if married but filing separately. The act also does not apply to second mortgages where the money was used for non-household expenses.”

“Jupiter resident Michael Schoenewolff, who hopes to benefit from the debt relief act this year, said he believes Congress will vote to extend the tax break. Schoenewolff has a short sale contract on his home that would leave him with $95,000 in forgiven debt. ‘The average person can’t handle another $100,000 in income to be taxed,’ he said. ‘I think they have to vote to extend it in order to allow the housing market and economy to recover.’”

The Naples News. “After operating a successful Canadian nursing home for 18 years, Helen Valent sold it for about $2 million and moved to Naples a decade ago. But her dreams were shattered after a banker introduced her to a real estate agent and she got involved in land deals that court papers allege were set up by the agent, the loan officer and bank vice president. From September 2004 to June 2005, court papers say, more than $1.3 million in Valent’s bank account dwindled to nothing after it was debited 15 times.”

“The loan officer and vice president left the bank, the real estate agent was indicted in 2009 on charges that still are pending, the multimillion dollar projects Valent invested in were foreclosed on — and last summer, the bank tried to foreclose on her roughly $1 million North Naples home. Financially drained, Valent turned the tables on Fifth Third Bank a few weeks ago. She countersued. ‘I lost everything,’ Valent said. ‘I trusted him because he said, ‘Don’t worry, don’t worry,’ she said of the loan officer. ‘You’re like a sister to me. You can trust me.’”

“Although the bank has dismissed the foreclosure and lien, that doesn’t affect her pending counterclaim, which seeks compensation for her losses, damages and debt forgiveness on $14.69 million in judgments. Valent’s six-bedroom home, once filled with furniture for five elderly residents of her future business, A Paradise Retirement Inn, is nearly vacant because she feared imminent eviction and sold most it.’

“‘I lived with the stress. I developed diabetes and had a heart attack on Christmas Eve. I’ll never forget that,’ Valent said in a recent interview, sobbing in her kitchen. ‘No one was listening, no one.’”




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58 Comments »

2012-06-27 04:13:29

‘I trusted him because he said, ‘Don’t worry, don’t worry,’ she said of the loan officer. ‘You’re like a sister to me. You can trust me.’

Wow, just wow!

Comment by Carl Morris
2012-06-27 08:11:33

It wasn’t a lie, Valent…he’d have done the same thing to his sister.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-27 21:02:40

“…he’d have done the same thing to his sister.”

Wouldn’t that technically be incest?

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-06-27 08:40:28

Anybody who tells me that I can trust is someone I will not trust. Especially if that person is in commissioned sales.

 
Comment by Timmy
2012-06-27 14:18:54

He can trust me…. to put my foot up his A$$

Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-06-27 19:58:21

+1

 
 
 
Comment by Truth
2012-06-27 04:13:41

What a mess.

And 49 more states have to go through that process?

 
2012-06-27 04:21:27

Jupiter resident Michael Schoenewolff, who hopes to benefit from the debt relief act this year, said he believes Congress will vote to extend the tax break. Schoenewolff has a short sale contract on his home that would leave him with $95,000 in forgiven debt.

Aaah, magical thinking. Congress and the Candy-Crappin’ Unicorn™ to the rescue!

What could possibly go wrong with this line of “reasoning”?

 
2012-06-27 04:37:39

‘Miami is still sitting on a large overhang of delinquent loans, but the slow foreclosure process is only allowing a gradual flow of these homes into the market,’ Michelle Meyer, an economist with BankofAmerica Merrill Lynch, said in a report.

Don’t worry, darling!

The confluence of large overhang, demographics and natural action in “God’s Waiting Room” can’t possibly have any consequences on the situation.

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-06-27 06:23:15

‘the foreclosure rate in the Miami area remained more than five times the national rate of 3.41 percent in April. The percentage of homes that are delinquent for 90 days or more dropped to 24.35 percent in April in Miami from 26.43 percent a year earlier’

We see a lot of statistics, but this may be the highest concentration of delinquent loans anywhere but pockets in Ohio or Detroit.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-27 21:07:51

‘The percentage of homes that are delinquent for 90 days or more dropped to 24.35 percent in April in Miami from 26.43 percent a year earlier’

The percentage of homes that are 90 days or more delinquent dropped from one out of every 3.8 homes down to one out of every 4.1 homes. And we don’t know how much of that ‘improvement’ is due to homes that finally transitioned from delinquency to foreclosure.

Huge improvement there!

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-06-27 23:30:40

I’ve been harping on this for a while…the entire state of Florida has a non-current loan rate of ~21%. Forget just Miami as a pocket of distress, this is a statewide problem. Highest in the country by far…more than 2x Arizona and California.

Add on the fact that “normal” is 5% (there is always someone who has missed one payment–even during the best markets, the rate is about 5%).

So, at 21%, Florida is 16 points above normal.
At 9%, Arizona and California are 4 points above normal.

In other words, the shadow inventory is FOUR times as bad in the state of Florida than in California or Arizona.

If they ever change their foreclosure processes (to allow more product on the market faster), Florida prices will crash from today’s levels.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-06-27 08:41:45

Not to mention hurricanes. They can wipe out a lot of inventory in a hurry.

 
 
Comment by combotechie
2012-06-27 04:42:35

“When they arrived they had trouble finding parking spaces on the street because there were about 30 other buyers waiting to see the home as well.”

What a great job opportunity! Become a shill for a realtor or a seller. Show up at an open house, rave about it how you just gotta have it and then fire up a bidding war.

Be sure to be as obnoxious as possible so as to entice other bidders to out bid your price for the sole purpose of making sure that you are not the one that ends up getting the house.

(Does anyone here think I am joking?)

2012-06-27 04:57:37

Hey! It’s better than sign-twirling. :P

Comment by combotechie
2012-06-27 05:03:45

I recall several years ago of condos, in full view of condos that were being offered for sale, were staged with scantly-clad models doing exercises.

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-06-27 06:25:05

It’s actually kinda funny, cuz they jumped the fence, etc, and his client still wanted to low ball the thing. These goobers aren’t fooling everyone.

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Comment by snake charmer
2012-06-27 09:08:28

Was that the San Diego condo towers? I’ve commented on that one several times since, but have never been able to find the link. I do remember seeing people standing on busy street corners here in Tampa, with sign boards proclaiming “CONDOS FOR SALE,” in the middle of the summer. That had to be the most thankless job in this state short of cutting sugarcane. With the sun radiating off the asphalt, I’m sure the ground-level temperature exceeded 120 degrees. And breathing in exhaust fumes at close range practically guaranteed a future oncologist appointment.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-27 21:12:44

I don’t know — those San Diego human directionals enjoy great weather, exercise and self-entertainment as they endlessly twirl away the time.

 
 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-06-27 20:01:13

I don’t think you are joking, but I do think it’s funny. Sad, but funny and true. People are still smitten by real estate. That only means the bottom is way far down years ahead. Instead of 45 cents on the dollar based on January 2007 prices, I think 25 cents on the dollar from that date is a safe prediction. Phoenix will go there.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2012-06-27 05:46:09

A pissant little tropical storm hits Florida and what happens? All hell breaks loose!

First, the flooding. It’s been massive in certain areas. Bayshore Drive became part of Tampa Bay, although that’s not unusual. Really, they should just give it up. That part of Tampa floods if a dog so much as takes a whizz in the street. It’s just that the flooding is worse every time there’s a major weather event.

More interesting, however, are the reports of major flooding in areas that have never seen that sort of flooding before. And some areas that usually see lots of flooding, not so much. My uneducated guess is that this is the result of changes in drainage patterns due to development.

Sinkholes. Hernando County opened up like Swiss cheese. 45, count ‘em, 45 sinkholes. And that’s just what was reported. And I’m thanking my lucky stars I never moved to Brooksville, because one of the neighborhoods I was considering in that area got hit with the ugly stick.

The real tragedy was that young mother over in the central part of the state, got tossed from her demolished home the distance of two football fields, during one of the seven tornadoes that touched down. She didn’t make it, but she held on tight to her baby, even in death, and as a result, the child is alive. I honor that mother. RIP, lady, you were one of the good ones.

PS: Florida, dump those mobile homes, please. Geez, the roofs peel back in the wind like the top of a tin can.

Comment by palmetto
2012-06-27 06:00:05

When will we learn that certain areas of Florida are just not appropriate for development? Much of Hernando County, for example. And huge swaths of Pasco, too. Mother Nature gets pissed and just swallows those homes.

And, we are having an influx of new residents, especially in this area. Anecdotally, I can attest to that, as I have a little contract gig that puts me in contact with homeowners. This area used to see a dramatic plunge in traffic during the summer months. Not anymore. The population around here has exploded and this is not for the better. Generates more traffic, heat, crime, shorter tempers.

Oh, and hey, to all jamokes who purchased property in developments along the Little Manatee River, which is now six feet above flood stage: Here’s lookin’ at you, kidz!

Comment by AQIUS
2012-06-27 06:33:59

Palmy

You should maybe fire up a swamp air boat in all the flooding, pack some boiled peanuts fer grub, & head over to Bush Gardens area to rescue some curvaceous tourists!

Heck, take along a small kid . . . a camera . . . call it a reality show.
Maybe “Gentle Ben & Palmetto”.

I’d buy that for a dollar.

Comment by palmetto
2012-06-27 10:55:55

AQIUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Howzit goin’, bro’? Where are you located these days? What’re you up to?

Check out the footage of all those airboats rescuing the hapless folks living in the trailer parks in this area. Unreal.

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Comment by snake charmer
2012-06-27 08:18:31

Most of central and southern Florida was not appropriate for development, but hey, that’s where about twelve million people live now. Don’t you live near the Alafia River? How far above flood stage is it?

Interesting that Bayshore Boulevard was totally inundated by a 2-3 foot storm surge combined with high tide.

That’s true about the traffic. There used to be two notable fall-offs in traffic activity — after Easter weekend, when all the snowbirds went home, and after the end of the school year. Now it’s just all gridlock all the time. Have we always had this many road rage incidents?

Comment by palmetto
2012-06-27 10:53:39

“Don’t you live near the Alafia River?”

No, I’m closer to the Little Manatee. Although I hear tell the Alafia is going to be the usual mess that it is when events of this nature occur.

“Interesting that Bayshore Boulevard was totally inundated by a 2-3 foot storm surge combined with high tide.”

I know, right? They ought to be making alternate arrangements for that thoroughfare. It’s pretty much toast.

“Now it’s just all gridlock all the time. Have we always had this many road rage incidents?”

No, but then again, we never had this many hot-blooded, chip-on-the-shoulder people living in this area before, either. I don’t know what the attraction is.

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Comment by Florida is Going to Kill Me ®
2012-06-27 18:35:54

“I don’t know what the attraction is.”

Jobs.

 
 
 
 
Comment by BetterRenter
2012-06-27 14:21:14

palmetto said: “[The flooding has] been massive in certain areas. Bayshore Drive became part of Tampa Bay, although that’s not unusual. Really, they should just give it up. That part of Tampa floods if a dog so much as takes a whizz in the street.”

Why does that matter? People are obviously still buying housing to flip ‘em. Long-term concerns don’t apply. By the time some flood comes, some other guy is holding the bag, ‘cuz you were too smart, see? It’s all about smart guys and dumb guys, and all that peer pressure that should have stopped when people left high school.

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-06-27 20:02:57

I’m glad I took a break from Tampa and am working in L.A. (whistling in the dark here in earthquake zone, and job is the most unstable ever).

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2012-06-27 06:06:32

There’s an image at this link showing Florida’s land mass 24,000 years ago, with an outline of Florida today, showing how far it has receded, especially along the Gulf. Wow.

http://floridafrontier.com/Paleo_Animals_Americn_Lion_Horse_Bison.html

Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-06-27 06:53:30

Wait what? You mean climate and land masses changed before the invention of the eeeeeevil SUV

Comment by palmetto
2012-06-27 10:58:42

Hard to believe, isn’t it? I’m shocked, I tell you, SHOCKED!

 
Comment by howiewowie
2012-06-27 14:25:34

Yep. Problem now is it might take only 240 years to change, instead of 24,000.

 
Comment by John
2012-06-27 17:20:42

Forests can catch fire by nature or by arson.

 
 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-06-27 20:04:26

That’s slick!

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2012-06-27 06:28:00

‘Frank Gregoire, a former chairman of the Florida Real Estate Appraisal Board and the appraisal committee for the National Association of Realtors’

Hmmm,

‘will testify before a congressional committee on Thursday… ‘As long as the appraiser can demonstrate that his data is supported and correct, the lender should just lay off’

‘Florida remains No. 1 for mortgage fraud. The state had $260 million worth of fraud under investigation at the end of the first quarter of the year, up from $117 million in the fourth period of 2011′

The NAR operates more and more like a crime family. A really well connected crime family.

Comment by Truth
2012-06-27 08:58:59

Well yeah….. NAR is known as the Housing Crime Syndicate for a reason.

 
 
Comment by Lisa
2012-06-27 07:26:02

“Nearly one-third of mortgages are underwater, according to first-quarter data from Zillow. Nearly 5 percent of mortgages carry a balance that’s twice the home’s value, Zillow said.

Gee, think this might have something to do with low inventory in so many markets? Almost a third of mortgage holders are FB, unable to move.

No wonder we’re seeing the “market is booming” articles all over the country. Hold out hope to all those folks, anything to keep the mortgage payments coming in.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-06-27 08:43:25

No wonder we’re seeing the “market is booming” articles all over the country. Hold out hope to all those folks, anything to keep the mortgage payments coming in.

Zat’s egg-zactly what it’s all about. Keeping the payment makers making those payments.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2012-06-27 08:42:28

‘Home Affordable Refinance Program…homeowners now can qualify for the revised program, which eliminates a provision that required mortgages be within 125 percent of the value of the home. ‘If someone owes $300,000 on a $100,000 home, we could still look at refinancing that,’ said Doug Leever’

Maybe Rental Watch wants to chime in on how sound the GSE books are…

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-06-27 08:44:26

That acronym HARP reminds me of the favorite instrument of the angels. Is there an FB heaven?

Comment by snake charmer
2012-06-27 09:10:04

If there was, it probably would look like Fort Myers.

Comment by palmetto
2012-06-27 11:52:21

Or Cape Coral. Or Northport. Same general area, though.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2012-06-27 23:43:01

I never said their books were sound. I wasn’t reviewing their financial statements. With mark to market accounting suspended, what’s the use? We all know that Fannie is insolvent being propped up by the US Government. Making decisions that are non-standard lending decisions (extending loans that are >100% LTV) is par for the course.

I’m looking at their data entirely in trying to determine the level of distressed housing that is expected to flow to the market (ie. REO on the books, serious delinquencies, etc.)

I’ve been noting their reported delinquency rates, which I have no reason to believe have been fraudulently reported. If so, they’d be trying to sugar coat Florida’s disaster…they don’t–they report the FL serious delinquency rate at over 11%.

I also have no reason to believe that they are sugar coating the number of loans that are underwater (they note 45% of AZ loans being underwater, ~21% of CA loans being underwater (which only makes sense because Fannie wasn’t a lender on the highest priced homes in CA–I almost guarantee the other lenders in the market have a higher percent underwater), FL having 48% underwater, NV having 66% underwater).

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-27 09:57:47

“Jupiter resident Michael Schoenewolff, who hopes to benefit from the debt relief act this year, said he believes Congress will vote to extend the tax break.”

He can wish in one hand and crap in the other, and see which one fills up the fastest.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-27 10:00:03

Published: June 6, 2012 Updated: 2:47 p.m.

Expiring Debt Relief Act increases mortgage defaults
CATHY HANEY
IRVINE REAL ESTATE
FOR THE REGISTER

Increasing numbers of homeowners are strategically defaulting on their loans in a race to beat the expiration of a law that has favorable tax consequences for foreclosures and short sales.

The Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act, which expires at the end of 2012, offers relief to homeowners who would typically owe taxes on forgiven mortgage debt after a foreclosure or a short sale.

Comment by aNYCdj
2012-06-27 10:41:53

The banks will approve every short sale after Jan 1st no matter how low ball the price is.

Comment by polly
2012-06-27 12:26:38

Why? You do know that the banks don’t share in the taxes paid, right?

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Comment by Lionel
2012-06-27 13:01:17

The Bradenton Herald reports from Florida. “Sales of existing homes rose in May along with prices, according to figures released Thursday by the Manatee Association of Realtors.

I think it’s awesome that they allow manatees to be realtors in Florida.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-06-27 13:04:53

Yeah, isn’t it though. Damn things aren’t busy enough, what with all their getting in the way of motorboats.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-27 13:38:29

‘Valent’s six-bedroom home, once filled with furniture for five elderly residents of her future business, A Paradise Retirement Inn, is nearly vacant because she feared imminent eviction and sold most it.’

Sounds reminiscent of the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel — though far smaller.

Comment by snake charmer
2012-06-27 14:00:48

This may well be the fate of many McMansions. They will be converted to group homes for our exploding population of elderly.

On another note, I’m suspicious anytime a business names itself so as to be listed first in the telephone book. Obviously the word “paradise” also raises a red flag, but that’s not uncommon for Naples.

Comment by SmoledMan
2012-06-28 16:44:58

More like a “hell”.

 
 
 
Comment by Doghouse Riley
2012-06-27 13:58:49

Little known fact: there is a factory in southern Indiana which runs 24/7 building turnip trucks, which are immediately shipped to Florida for people to fall out of.

Moved out of that tropical hell hole in 2005, best thing I ever did.

Comment by Florida is Going to Kill Me ®
2012-06-27 15:05:00

Are you the one that moved to W.Va?

I’d love to leave, but I think I’m trapped. I am still cleaning up after Debby and I am not interested in repeating the process.

This, on top of everything else.

Comment by snake charmer
2012-06-27 19:25:59

I have been to southern Indiana once in my life and very nearly brawled with the locals after I made the mistake of going into a local bar while wearing a suit. It was like an evil version of “Hoosiers” and I don’t plan on repeating it anytime soon.

 
 
 
Comment by howiewowie
2012-06-27 14:30:36

Definitely seeing an uptick in sales in Fla. Couple of house I found were listed for mere days before being sold. In Michigan, my sis-in-law sold her house in less than a week recently. They tried selling at the same price two years ago and nobody bit.

Something’s different. Not sure what, thought.

2012-06-27 16:29:25

Fresh delusion?

 
 
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