Bits Bucket for June 28, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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With Greece already out of euro, will Italy be kicked out today and Spain this weekend?
I’m so tired of this story. Can’t we talk about something fun for a while. What about football, lets talk about that.
OK. I still maintain that Peyton should have moved from QBing to coaching. But I guess he doesn’t want to be outdone by Little Brother. To be honest, I’m afraid to watch Payton play now, for fear he’ll take one final hit.
Broncos fans are going to be soooo disappointed. Meanwhile, Timmy the Tebower will probably replace Mark Sanchez and take the Jets to the Souper Bowl
That would be something, Peyton Manning and Timmy “the little hesus” in Superbowl.
Denver and the NY Jets are both in the AFC, so they can’t meet in the Superbowl. However, you could have the Broncos and the Giants… SuperManningBowl!!
Well, Spain did beat Portugal in a penalty kick shootout.
Or by football, did you mean the kind of football the Broncos play? You know, the “football” that is played by carrying and throwing the ball with your hands.
Ah ha! We knew that you must have picked up something else in Mexico besides insight into what happens to small businesses and the middle class under serious inflation.
John Cleese on football vs. American football
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2sD_8prYOxo
They also play “beisbol” south of the border.
BTW, Mexico is holding presidential (and other) elections this Sunday.
Or by football, did you mean the kind of football the Broncos play?
Or, the sport where the owner and politicians force tax payers to pay for the owner’s stadium.
The would be the NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL.
And NCAA.
Hoo Boy! Italy is beating Germany 2-0 just before the half.
Italy wins 2-1
Italy wins 2-1
I’ll bet the Germans aren’t too happy about that. ISTR that Germany is a perennial powerhouse.
You guys $uck. I was gonna watch the replay tonight.
I avoided sports sites all together today.
Just wanted to throw in a “stay safe” In Colorado. Heard on NPR this morning that those CO wildfires were still dangerous.
The one in Colorado Springs is especially bad.
I think that this year will be the year that University of Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson decides to stop starring in his own highlight film and lead the team. Look for 2012 to be his breakout year, with a Heisman within the realm of possibility.
As a fellow Wolverine, I’d love to see that as well. He’s got a lot of physical gifts and he’s gotta be one of the nicest kids in college football, but his accuracy is suspect and he makes some poor decisions on the field. Tries to do too much when he should slide, throw the ball away, etc. But here’s to hoping those improve as he matures! Go Blue!
…Buckeyes…
“…Buckeyes…”
We’ll agree to disagree
LOL, indeed. At least “The Game” has come back up to par in recent years (as much as I’ve enjoyed OSU’s recent dominance). Maybe we can agree on that?
We can definitely agree on that! Had a pretty rough decade there…
“At least “The Game” has come back up to par in recent years”
Harvard vs Yale?
Army vs Navy?
How dare you polly?
It’s my east coast shining through.
Go Gators!
Let’s talk about the U.S. economic recovery for a change.
ECONOMY SEEN GROWING, BUT NOT CONSTRUCTION
Forecast: Real GDP to rise 2.3% for the rest of 2012
Written by Jonathan Horn
12:01 a.m., June 28, 2012
Updated 4:01 p.m. , June 27, 2012
Also of interest
Economic recovery won’t stall, new forecast says
RISE SEEN IN PACE OF JOB GROWTH IN CALIFORNIA
Job recovery slow, steady, reports say
California is poised to break even on year-to-year job growth
Economists’ optimism for end of slump not catching
The national and state economies will continue to grow through next year, but a slowdown in construction is going to temper the expansion.
That’s according to an economic forecast released Wednesday by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University in Orange County.
Chapman has been a leading predictor in economic forecasts, including an early call of the Great Recession in California and a warning over the housing bubble in 2005. Chapman predicts the real gross domestic product will grow 2.3 percent the rest of the year and 2.6 percent in 2013.
“A growth rate of under 3 percent is not really strong enough to create a strong jobs number, both nationally, locally and at the state level,” said Chapman economist Esmael Adibi, director of the Anderson school.
The recession ended in 2009, but why is the growth still so slow?
Adibi said it’s because construction jobs aren’t being added fast enough. Building new homes and the job-creating services they require usually lead the way to economic recovery, but there are so many distressed homeowners, vacant homes and other inventory that there’s low demand for more building.
“When you have too many homes out there and at the same time you’re worried that more are going to come on the marketplace, builders are very cautious,” said Adibi, who said housing is what would expand the growth to 2.6 percent in 2013.
Adibi said economic uncertainty regarding the presidential election and the upcoming fiscal cliff could keep companies from hiring.
He said, however, that diverse coastal economies like San Diego’s should lead the way in job creation because of more professional and business service opportunities such as legal, accounting and management.
San Diego County’s unemployment rate was 8.8 percent in May, a three-year low. California’s was 10.8 percent.
…
What year of the recession are we in by now?
P.S. Whatever became of Dean Calbreath? I always appreciated the candor of his columns; perhaps he was too candid for the San Diego real estate crime ring’s taste?
Economists’ optimism for end of slump not catching
Written by Dean Calbreath
2 a.m., Aug. 23, 2009
At an investment conference hosted by San Diego stock analyst Bud Leedom last week, economist Esmael Adibi boldly pegged a date for the end of the recession.
“The recession will end precisely on Sept. 8,” Adibi, an economist at Chapman University in Orange, told 280 investors and corporate executives at the Southern California Investor Conference in Newport Beach.
Adibi’s track record includes predicting a “devastating” housing crash in 2005 and announcing in December 2007 that the current recession had begun — long before other economists reached the same conclusion.
He was joking about the recession’s ending date — Sept. 8 is his birthday — but Adibi does think the economy will start growing next month.
“We’re almost out of the recession now,” Adibi said.
Adibi’s joke reflects a growing sense of optimism among economists that we are on the verge of pulling out of our two-year slump. Within the past several days, such groups as Wells Fargo Securities, BMO Capital and The Conference Board estimated that the gross domestic product will grow this quarter, which they believe could spell the end of the recession. Wells Fargo, which maintains that the recession ended in June, predicts that the GDP will rise 3.4 percent this quarter and 2.6 percent next quarter.
But if the GDP is growing — driven partly by federal infrastructure projects and subsidized auto sales — does that mean the recession is over? Not necessarily.
The GDP is only one measure for judging economic health. It can turn positive even in the midst of a recession, as happened during spring 2008. In addition to the GDP, the National Bureau of Economic Research looks at employment levels, salary growth, corporate profits and other factors to determine whether the country is in recession. Most of those still paint a gloomy picture of the economy.
“I think (the) GDP will be positive this quarter, but it’s a matter of debate whether that signals the end of the recession,” said Alan Gin, an economist at the University of San Diego.
Even if the economic research bureau declares the recession over, does that mean anything if job losses and home foreclosures continue?
“The recession might already have ended, but nobody will notice while the economy’s bouncing along the bottom,” said Marney Cox, an economist at the San Diego Association of Governments.
…
Also of interest
Decline seen in home sales
Key report sees 9% jobless rate, housing bottom in state in 2009
“San Diego County’s unemployment rate was 8.8 percent in May, a three-year low. California’s was 10.8 percent.”
This information is for May 2012, over two years since Adibi’s bottom call for the recession on his September 8, 2009 birthday. I hope he isn’t still crowing about his impeccable forecasting record at this point.
Does Rugby Football count?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_In06mDBD3U
Another health and equanimity “send” to fellow HBB’ers in Colorado - may health, safety and goods preservation continue to accrue to you and yours.
Seconded!
My daughter showed me a piture of the raging fire in Springs. Her boss lost her house day before yesterday.
She was having trouble selling it. Underwater and on fire at the same time.
Perhaps the insurance settlement will exceed what she could have sold it for?
Lucky gal…..paid off house and a FREE lot……
In a nice location with no fire danger for many years to come.
Indeed.
My sister sent me pics sent to her from a guy at their division in Co Springs. Parking lot full of cars while flames appear to be a few hundred yards away. Don’t know if those were abandoned or not, but I wouldn’t be anywhere near work if fires were that close…
Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be less tomorrow for many years to come. Alot less.
buy now or be priced out forever?
Sell now or be priced in forever.
sell now or be priced in forever.
I think you are right. 1,000,000 new job cuts after January 2013 when federal taxes go way up and government spending gets cut.
It’s the medicine our economy needs, but yes it will drive down house values.
So the “medicine” the economy needs is for millions of otherwise productive people to be unemployed and not creating wealth?
Ya gotta love “Capitalism”.
neo-liberal capitalism.
both republicans and democrats are its champion.
We have an economy that is fueled by massive accumulation of debt at the federal level. That make those jobs Ponzi jobs.
Unemployment is a temporary adjustment period. Obviously, adjustments are likely to be down. This is better for us as a country than accumulating more long term debt.
If you want more people to be employed here, change some of the incentives for the business owner.
I visited a doctor today. I last saw him 4 years ago. He’s got six people working in his office. I said “see you in 4 years!” He said that he wouldn’t be there. The new FedRegs will require him to put all his patient records on computer data base by 2014. This will cost him $100,000. He’s getting old and this investment makes no sense. So, he will become unemployed along with the other six. Sure, this may open up opportunities for others, but the new jobs will be entry level and/or government regulators.
this may open up opportunities for others, but the new jobs will be entry level and/or government regulators.
Seems like the new people would be a younger doctor and his staff, no? No harm no foul, except a young person gets to work and an older doctor can choose to retire. So really a net gain.
Most likely he’ll sell his practice to some heathcare behemoth (say Banner Health) which can probably digitize his old records at a lower cost.
The doctor that takes over his patients will be an entry level person and/or government regulator? Electronic health records increase efficiency. Last few times I got a prescription, it was sent directly to the pharmacy in electronic form. No pharmacy tech trying to read illegible doctor writing. No pharmacy tech having to call the doctors office three times to get the illegible doctor writing translated. The instructions were the exact ones the doc wanted me to have. And I didn’t have to go to the pharmacy, hand in the slip of paper and wait for half an hour (or longer if the pharmacy tech had to call the doc’s office for clarification). I could show up after the doc’s offic was closed and be sure that the right stuff was waiting for me.
The fact that your doc has enough money to retire and therefore prefers not to invest additional capital in a business he would have retired from a few years later anyway is hardly an indication that the job of being a doctor is being turned into an entry level position.
Most likely he’ll sell his practice to some heathcare behemoth (say Banner Health) which can probably digitize his old records at a lower cost.
Last October, I went with a friend while she visited one of her friends in a Banner hospital outside of Phoenix. I was very impressed with how efficient and courteous the staff were, and how computerized the place was.
“how computerized the place was.”
Yes, but I’m not sure that scanning all the old records into pdf files will add much to the efficiency going forward in this particular case.
“Most likely he’ll sell his practice to some heathcare behemoth”
Case in point that heavy regulation always favors the existing big boys.
They don’t just scan the records into pdf files.
There is, in fact, quite a lot of money sloshing around to help small practices computerize their records. I think there had to be some sort of exception to a rule that would normally keep non-profit hospitals from giving away money to private businesses in order to allow it. The hospitals are the ones who really benefit from electronic records. If it is just your doc’s office, well, they have the paper records. When you show up needing care someplace else, they really need to know if you are diabetic or take a lot of prescriptions or have some other medical condition that won’t show up on a visual inspection but could impact the care you should receive. Electronic records facilitate that sharing of informtion.
“They don’t just scan the records into pdf files.”
You don’t add much to a conversation.
Wait, I don’t add much to a conversation because I pointed out you were wrong or for some other reason?
My happiness in life depends entirely on your answer.
I can’t think of anyone that contributes to this site that adds more unbiased fact and critical thought to the conversation than polly. She’s one of the few people on here that is rarely (never?) guilty of making biased emotional arguments that have no basis it fact.
I can’t think of anyone that contributes to this site that adds more unbiased fact and critical thought to the conversation than polly. She’s one of the few people on here that is rarely (never?) guilty of making biased emotional arguments that have no basis it fact.
Heartily seconded.
“You don’t add much to a conversation.”
Stupid comment of the year award, hands down.
Fine friends, it was a very hot day here today. I meant that it is a conversation stopper to always say: well, you are wrong because…. Sure Polly, you are a regular encylopedia, but you’d rather whack-a-mole than have a conversation.
“…you’d rather whack-a-mole…”
She’s an attorney. What do you expect?
Heavens forfend we should add facts to a convo. Polly is a treasure.
You gotta wonder, if they are so productive, then why would they be cut? In a business, if I lost revenue, the least productive of the business would be cut first, or else everyone would take a pay cut. I wouldn’t lay off someone who was profitable to my company as long as I could lay off those who were unprofitable no matter what. So if you are claiming that these people who are going to be unemployed were so profitable and productive, you should easily be able to show how they are paying for themselves, then someone else could be cut. Hint, lots of military spending isn’t producing anything for us except foreign aggravation and domestic casualty counts. So make the cuts there POTUS (like he promised) and until then all his supporters can stop their bitching and moaning.
I think of military as an expense for our country. Sort of like hiring a security guard and installing an alarm in your building. If you’re business is losing money, you might decide that you can’t afford quite as much protection as you once could and rely on the alarm only. Doesn’t matter if your security guard is Chuck Norris. You’ve decided that you no longer need/can afford the level of protection that he provides.
Please, PLEASE tell me it’s finally going to hit DC metro. Pretty please? It would be great if the area would thin out some. I’m starting to do a slow burn on accounta the general arrogance.
Would have a delightful helping of Schadenfreude were some of “them” to vamoose, throttled between lowered income and bloated housing costs. It’s happening STILL.
I’m somewhat aghast at my attitude, but it’s getting really New Yorky here. Used to be, there was a gloss of manners, and the graciousness that comes from a shared understanding that there’s enough to go around, might as well enjoy a civilized exchange. Now, the graciousness has been squeezed out by the costs and the crowding, and it’s no different from the effing Northeast - MFFY! (that is, “Me First, F- You!!!”).
I dislike being subject to this degree of degradation in public discourse, and being subject to elbows in the ribs in the supermarkets, like in New York and CT. For heaven’s sake, this is a trip to the supermarket, or a drive to work - NOT a blood sport!
In this area, we really need a counterbalance. It is unrecognizable from ten years ago, even from five years ago. I’m starting to dislike NoVa (New New York) as much as the rest of the state does - it has become crass.
Pray for a comeuppance.
I think the credit/housing mania effed a lot of cities and I include my Portland in that list. We already had a growing population and the 2000s made it go seemingly parabolic.
Truth your message is not getting out
WASHINGTON — Announcements of a housing recovery have become a wrongheaded rite of summer, but after several years of false hopes, evidence is accumulating that the optimists may finally be right.
The housing market is starting to recover. Prices are rising. Sales are increasing. Home builders are clearing lots and raising frames.
Joe Niece, a real estate agent in the Minneapolis suburb of Eden Prairie, said he recently concluded a streak of 13 consecutive bidding wars over homes that his clients wanted to buy. Each sold above the asking price.
“I just had a home that wasn’t supposed to go on the market for two weeks sold before it even went on the market,” Mr. Niece said. “It’s definitely a lot different than what we saw” during the last few summers.
“Twin Cities house prices falling faster than the national average”
http://www.startribune.com/blogs/159724465.html
So prices are cratering 2x the national average and a realtor in the Twin Cities is spouting what?
I have a cousin who’s a real estate agent in Minneapolis. According to my aunt, the local market is crummy, and he wants to head south and set up shop in Austin, Texas.
What’s keeping him in the Twin Cities? His girlfriend. She has teenagers who aren’t through school yet.
“…set up shop in Austin, Texas.”
Ah, the “grass is greener” mentality. We have that in Portland as well. In fact I think Portland, Austin, and, what, Charlotte are the remaining places that people are still moving to? I think we have a case of bandwagon thinking in this case…these places are the Paris Hilton of cities. They’re popular…because they’re popular.
Well, our grass literally is greener and low rates and transplants might hold the line for now, but I for one will rejoice when we’ve reached Peak Portland, Peak Austin, etc.
Last time I talked to my aunt, I said that my Twin Cities cousin should find something else to do. As in, get out of real estate. She agreed.
Said cousin used to be a foreign car mechanic. ISTR hearing that he’d done work on Clint Eastwood’s car when he was in CA.
His back is such that he can no longer have a mechanic shop. But jeez Louise, he’d be perfect for selling high-end cars. Especially if he already has real estate sales experience.
I made this suggestion to my aunt. She was a bit hesitant to take it, and I think I know why. This particular cousin has battled substance abuse problems since he was a kid. And, from what I gather, he’s using and abusing again.
“Well, our grass literally is greener”
That is exactly what I was thinking.
In honor of Neil, I am popping my popcorn to snack on while watching Austin’s inevitable crash.
What ever happened to old Neil?
Babies. Mortgage. Orange County.
Obamacare ruling is scheduled to be released today.
Get the popcorn.
For those who are wondering, the libtard view is mixed. They see either side as a win. Uphold the law = Obamacare stands. Strike down the law = eventual (5-10 year) death knell for for-profit health insurance.
That is just media spin, the liberals are always victorious, win or lose.
The libtards are right in this case. I think Obama wants the mandate struck down with everything else kept in place. It won’t be 5-10 years, it’ll be 1-2 years before the insurance companies are all out of business.
Next up, Obama will propose a new law that car insurance companies have to accept you as a customer even after 5 DUIs. After all it’s unfair that people who drink and drive on a regular basis can’t get insurance, right?
, Obama will propose a new law that car insurance companies have to accept you as a customer even after 5 DUIs
That’s pretty much how our current health care system works. If you’re too sick or too old for anyone to cover you, then the government covers you. If you’re healthy, then the for-profit insurers will cover you. The taxpayers cover the unprofitable.
And everyone who has insurance helps pay for those that don’t- at least, that’s one of the reasons given for the astronomical cost of health care. The uninsured often ‘walk away’ (or selfishly die) from their health care bills, leaving the rest of us to pay for them. Sound familiar?
And everyone who has insurance helps pay for those that don’t- at least, that’s one of the reasons given for the astronomical cost of health care. The uninsured often ‘walk away’ (or selfishly die) from their health care bills, leaving the rest of us to pay for them. Sound familiar?
The uninsured that pay out of pocket like me pay for helps pay for those that don’t [pay]
I notice my costs are up 400% why is that if I’m not paying for others?
Because the CEO of United Health Care makes over $100 million a year salary, not to mention the Bottomless Stakeholder Maw?
Your costs are up 400% because the hospitals/doctors have to actually charge someone their initial negotiating stance with the insurance companies.
Basically, the doc/hospital says, “or charge for this service is $1000.” The insurance companys says, “no way. We’ll give you $50.” They come to an agreement somewhere in between. But if the doc/hospital doesn’t charge someone $1000, then they will have a hard time claiming that the charge for the service really is $1000. You are caught in the middle of a pissing match between medical providers and insurance companies. A penny of difference in their negotiation is much more important to them than the amount that is paid by the very few uninsured who can actually pay their entire bill.
Because if you read the history of health insurance, it was foremost developed to help doctors and hospitals getting paid.
Most states with mandatory car insurance laws already have an insurance pool for high risk drivers.
“assigned risk”
insurance firms are forced to take a percentage of bad apples
I think you’re underestimating the ability of the industry’s ability to cheat, extort, lobby and lie their way to continued profitability.
It won’t be 5-10 years, it’ll be 1-2 years before the insurance companies are all out of business.
I think that’s premature. They’ll be able to continue shifting people into HD policies for a while, but eventually even those will be utterly unaffordable. I think that will be the event horizon where we as a nation will finally ditch our inefficient and byzantine system of private insurance. As to when this will happen, my guess is that it’ll be closer to 10 years as they’ll try a few last ditch gimmicks (like increasing the deductibles even more) to buy time.
It won’t be 5-10 years, it’ll be 1-2 years before the insurance companies are all out of business.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer industry.
Ding Dong, Blue Cross is dead. It’s a wonderful day for schadenfreude!
And John Roberts has secured his legacy.
But the Court is so partisan, yes? At least that’s what the libs were saying until now.
Makes me wonder why did they even bother passing it? I would have let the Insurance industry collapse on its own weight.
The medical insurance industry doesn’t need to collapse, instead it needs to get back to providing insurance.
If I could buy some catastrophic insurance I would be fine, I could afford it and its all I need.
If I could buy some catastrophic insurance I would be fine, I could afford it and its all I need.
Unless you get a chronic disease that costs tens of thouand$ a year- every year- to treat, like many people do.
Problem I see is people expect insurance to cover everything. Need a flu shot? Insurance pays. Need to see the doctor because you have a hang nail? Insurance pays. Need birth control? Insurance pays. It would be like expecting your car insurance to pay for oil changes and new wiper blades or home insurance to pay for a new paint job. And before you chime in with “well a flu shot prevents you from getting sick so it’s in the best interest of insurance companies to pay for it”, new brakes prevent you from having an accident too. Wouldn’t be in the best interest of car insurance companies to pay for new brakes and for all repairs that impact safety?
Car insurance is if you get into an accident. Home insurance is if your house burns down. Health insurance should be if you get sick. Yet somewhere along the way the term insurance got lost and now it’s health care provide, for free, everything I can possibly dream of health care related. That’s not insurance.
It is now 10:03am (EST). Do you know where your health care law is?
Chronic Disease is big business. Diabetes and Obesity are a multi-billion dollar business model. I believe one should control the risk factors they can. There are enough heath black swans.
Big Agra, Big Pharma, Big Food Conglomerates, the Health Care Industry, fuel this epidemic of poor health.
Yet somewhere along the way the term insurance got lost and now it’s health care provide, for free, everything I can possibly dream of health care related. That’s not insurance.
What really gets me is that everyone pays the same price for this “insurance” regardless if one consumer is well within the healthy height and weight boundaries, and the other is morbidly obese. No encouragement.
Holy crap! UPHELD. ALL OF IT.
See CNN.
yes, horrible for our nation…
This nation is done as we know it. Or knew it. When the feds can force people to purchase a private product or service under penalty of IRS action, it’s over.
What’s next?
Problem I see is people expect insurance to cover everything. Need a flu shot? Insurance pays. Need to see the doctor because you have a hang nail? Insurance pays.
That’s how many people think who get their insurance through their jobs- they’ll go to the doctor (for antibiotics!) at every sniffle.
Those of us who buy our own insurance, with its many co-pays, usually go only when a limb is hanging on by a few tendons, or the tumor is so large we’ve named it and talk to it.
It’s a great system!
What’s next?
Dogs marrying cats. Legally.
And it was upheld as a tax, not under the commerce clause. Almost seems that the Chief Justice is getting ready to massacre currenct commerce clause jurisprudence starting next year.
I know! HOUSING! That’s how we solve the homeless problem in the US, and get rid of the stigma of renting and get those assets on the books of the banks producing revenue streams. Force everyone to buy a house, or pay a penalty to the IRS! Boo-YAH!
Think it can’t happen? Think again. Shelter is a basic right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“And it was upheld as a tax,”
Yes, I read that. I don’t understand the legal implications of this, sounds like a precedent-setting ruling that doesn’t bode well for tax payers. Taken to the limit, what’s to stop Congress or the President mandating the purchase of anything, under penalty of a tax. But what do I know?
Wouldn’t be in the best interest of car insurance companies to pay for new brakes and for all repairs that impact safety?
Great analogy, Mr. Smithers…
How can it be a tax if it goes to a private insurance company.
Corporate America has finally done it. They’ve taken out the middle men of gov and now taxes will be paid directly to corporations. Gov will become similar to the queen of England, a figure head for ceremonies.
I haven’t gotten through the whole thing, but Roberts basically said that the commerce clause can’t be extended to regulating not buying something, meaning, of course, that you can’t simply mandate the purchase of vegetables (seems to be the favorite example). But since the law was written as “buy this or pay a penalty” it is really a tax. Despite the name “individual mandate” there really isn’t an individual mandate. You either have to buy insurance or pay a penalty. Just like my high school gym teacher would say “everyone take a lap, winners can go in” because he wasn’t allowed to punish the losers of a softball game, this has been upheld as the imposition of a tax that people who have health insurance don’t have to pay.
What is to prevent Congress from doing the same thing to the purchase of vegetables? Electoral politics.
Let you know if I see anything different when I get through the whole thing.
My prediction: The health insurance industry will find itself much more regulated than it has been for, oh, forever. And I believe that more than a few companies will merge with others or just plumb vanish.
I don’t think that the health insurance industry — as it is — will be able to withstand being regulated like a public utility. Can it morph into something that will be more useful to society? I doubt it.
“Woulkdn’t it be in the best interest of the car insurance companies…….?”
They already have beat you there. The “Insurance Institute for Highway Safety”.
Designed to lobby Congress to mandate auto safety “Improvements”, no matter what the cost to the auto makers and Joe Q Public, in an effort to limit auto accident related injuries (and the insurance payments for treatment)
Of course, Joe Q supposedly “saves money” on his auto medical coverage. What they don’t tell you is that you pay a lot more on your collision coverage, to pay for all of those deployed airbags.
That’s why you see so many 4-5 year old cars “totaled” for minor fender benders. The cost of replacing the airbags is higher than fixing the rest of the car.
This is also why you need to be careful buying cars that have been wrecked. Way too easy to fix the car for resale, but “forget” about replacing the airbags.
Seatbelts won’t help…….instead of being a primary restraining device, in newer cars they are designed primarily to hold you in the proper position for effective airbag deployment.
Then, of course, there is the other problem with the chemical burns you (and the kids in the back seat) get, after an airbag deployment…….
We’re all forced to buy a mortgage. Otherwise we have to pay a tax (since we don’t get to claim the interest rate deduction).
Is there a difference? I’m having a hard time seeing it-
While I’m disappointed with the ruling there are a couple of silver linings:
1. It was upheld as a tax and deemed unconstututional via the commerce clause. So at least we have a limit on the CC and any other mandate-y type of law in the future will have to be explicitly written as a tax which will make it a lot harder to pass.
2. Overlooked in the ruling is the striking down of the Medicaid expansion piece. The law forced states to sign up for the Medicaid expansion or lose out all Medicaid funding. SCOTUS ruled states can opt out yet still keep the regular Medicaid funding. Pretty big win for federalism there, I think.
3. I think this more or less seals the deal for Romney. Anyone who was going to sit this one out on the right because Romney is too liberal, just go on board. People get motivated to vote when they’re angry. The right is angry, the left is happy over this. Election’s still 4 months away and who knows what will happen, but I think overall this helps Romney.
polly wrote:
“Roberts basically said that the commerce clause can’t be extended to regulating not buying something, meaning, of course, that you can’t simply mandate the purchase of vegetables (seems to be the favorite example). But since the law was written as “buy this or pay a penalty” it is really a tax. Despite the name “individual mandate” there really isn’t an individual mandate. You either have to buy insurance or pay a penalty.”
Wow. It just dawned on me how the public, not versed in various aspects of the law, got played big time on this one. All this blather about about interstate commerce was one of the BIGGEST. HEAD FAKES. EVER. Those who wrote and forwarded the law most likely knew about the tax aspect as being unassailable in the first place. Phew. There was NEVER any chance the law wouldn’t be upheld. Challenges to the law? What a complete waste of time, energy and drama.
Comment by measton
2012-06-28 08:28:01
How can it be a tax if it goes to a private insurance company.
Corporate America has finally done it. They’ve taken out the middle men of gov and now taxes will be paid directly to corporations. Gov will become similar to the queen of England, a figure head for ceremonies.
Jesus dude, your side won this and yet you’re still whining. Some people will never be happy.
Couldn’t congress just vote to lower the amount of the tax paid to just $1? It would have the effect of getting rid of the mandate.
If it’s just a tax and not a mandate, why not? Tax rates change all the time and you don’t need to rewrite the entire IRS tax code to make those changes.
Election’s still 4 months away and who knows what will happen, but I think overall this helps Romney.
I felt the same way although I can’t bring myself to vote for Romney. The perception will be, you break it, you own it for the Dems. 3 or 4 generations of republicans can run on this issue. Just IMO.
what’s to stop Congress or the President mandating the purchase of anything, under penalty of a tax. But what do I know
We need a mandate ( as a tax ) for each adult to buy a firearm.
‘I think this more or less seals the deal for Romney’
Uh, Romney’s law was the basis for Obamacare. BTW, I did finally see a Romney bumper sticker in AZ. But it was on an east-west interstate and the SUV had CA plates, so I’m not sure that counts.
On a side note, this health care thing did get Glenn Beck to talk about something other than the Muslim Brotherhood or buying gold for a few minutes.
‘All this blather about about interstate commerce’
Funny thing interstate commerce. The Feds used that on the Branch Davidians too.
“Those who wrote and forwarded the law most likely knew about the tax aspect as being unassailable in the first place.”
Hardly unassailable. It was 5-4 on that part of the decision. Roberts agreed with this argument, but Kennedy didn’t.
The penalty is already pretty low and some people who are closer to poverty levels are exempt from it.
The Medicaid expansion has been changed. The law was written that Medicaid had to be expanded to all people with incomes under 133% of poverty level. The costs of the additional people would be covered 100% by the federal government even though Medicaid costs are normally split between the federal and state governments, so this wasn’t going to cost the states anything (except maybe administrative costs - I don’t recall whether they got additioanal money for admin costs). The part that got canned was that any state that didn’t do the expansion would lose their regular Medicaid funding. So, now states can choose whether to take the extra funding to cover more people under Medicaid or not without losing all Medicaid funding as a huge incentive to take it. I expect that the hospitals in the states that would rather not take the money for political reasons will force the politicians to take the money. Medicaid reimbursement isn’t great, but it is better than the nothing they are likely to get from people who make less than 133% of poverty level but aren’t currently eligible for Medicaid.
And my apologies to NYCdj. I thought that $20K income would get you eligible for the Medicaid expansion. With a household of one, 133% of poverty level is only $14,856. For a household of two it is $20,123. Higher in Alaska and Hawaii.
“We need a mandate ( as a tax ) for each adult to buy a firearm.”
Been there, done that. Though I suspect that was considered Constitutional under the well regulated militia clause of the 2nd amendment. It was quite a while ago. I’m trying to remember where I saw the article. Slate maybe? A few days ago? Passed under President Washington.
Oh, looky here! I said that the fine was a tax for a public product a year ago.
=================
Comment by oxide
2011-06-03 12:51:56
No Big V, it is blatently Unconstitutional to force people to buy a PRIVATE product. However, it is perfectly Constitutional to force people to buy a public product. Public products are what taxes buy.
Now, they are not forcing you to buy a private product. If you choose not to buy private health insurance, you don’t go to jail. Instead, you will pay a fine, something like $600, IIRC. That $600 will help cover the cost when you DO get sick and go to the emergency room. Think of that $600 fine as a bare-bones Public Option. And since that’s a public product, they can force you to buy it.
At least that’s my non-legal opinion.
================
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=6519
Romenycare was the blueprint for Obamacare, true. But Romney has been running on a repeal platform for 2 years. Believe me, Romney was about #75 on my list of people I want to see president. But if it’s Romney or Obama, I’m all in with Romney. And my point was that’s how a lot of dispirited conservative Republicans will feel after this morning. He’s not my first choice, I don’t even like him all that much, but holy s**t we need to get Obama out of there.
Uh, Romney’s law was the basis for Obamacare.
As much as I continue to point this out, the shouts for “Yeah, but…Anybody but Obama!” keep coming from 2004’s “flip-flop” crowd. Whatever.
“I think overall this helps Romney.”
In my case, overall this helps Donald Duck.
“According to Romney campaign spokeswoman Andrea Saul the Supreme Court decision upholding President Barack Obama’s healthcare reform law led to a windfall for Mitt Romney. Ms. Saul told The Politicker supporters donated at least $100,000 in the 50 minutes between the immediate aftermath of the ruling, which was issued at approximately 10:10 a.m.”
I’m not sweating the “Government can force you do XYZ” angle.
Remember: Government can draft you and send you to the front.
“But Romney has been running on a repeal platform for 2 years.”
Pandering. If he now wants a repeal and wants my vote, I expect a “I voted for it, before I voted against it” speech to ask for forgiveness.
And my point was that’s how a lot of dispirited conservative Republicans will feel after this morning.
Then they seal their fate as hypocrites.
Sorry. Article was from Wonkblog on the Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/06/26/george-washingtons-individual-mandates/
Also discusses some requirements for ship owners/sailors to have provisions for paying for health care.
“How can it be a tax if it goes to a private insurance company. ”
Where will the tax money paid by those who choose not to buy health insurance go?
Into some Health Care fund for the oh-so-individually-responsible-uninsured or just general tax revenue?
‘Government can draft you and send you to the front’
Hell, the ‘chief executive’ can have any citizen arrested without trial (or even making the charges public), jailed forever or even executed. And the supreme court didn’t lift a hand to stop this. That’s the problem when the constitution goes by the way side these days. One party has their agenda, the other is the same. Both turn a blind eye to the constitutional transgressions, and we get the worst of both. And then, when bad things happen, one side will say, ’see, you should have voted for us!’
But by jehoovah, you better not mess with an illegal immigrant.
Wow. It just dawned on me how the public, not versed in various aspects of the law, got played big time on this one.
See my comment from 2011 above. THIS member of the public did NOT get played.
“How can it be a tax if it goes to a private insurance company. ”
Our tax money goes to private companies all the time. There are whole departments who do nothing but buy goods and services for the US government — everything from mops to F-16s.
‘Romney was about #75 on my list of people I want to see president…I don’t even like him all that much’
Hey, maybe that’s a bumper sticker people would put on their car!
My biggest problems with him; he thinks Bernanke is doing a great job. Like Obama, he is all for tyrannical stuff like NDAA. He has surrounded himself with neo-cons, and I mean the real nut-job kind. Then there’s all the phony-ness, the etch-a-sketch persona, the flip flopping. This guy obviously just REALLY wants to be president. But why?
That said, I don’t think Obama should be re-elected. Why? Because he broke his promises and then some. If we re-elect people like this, that’s all we’ll ever get.
Anyway, the GOP messed this one up big time. Only the invisible insiders in the party like Romney.
‘they can force you’
Force is the only power any govt has.
That said, I don’t think Obama should be re-elected. Why? Because he broke his promises and then some. If we re-elect people like this, that’s all we’ll ever get.
Man, there have been few times you take the words right out of my mouth. What else to do then? I can’t bring myself to vote for Romney. The libertarian guy is not going to win.
What else to do then?
1. Allow yourself to admit that one of the Big Two is going to win.
2. Vote your conscience.
3. Ignore those who say things like, “A vote for (insert desired candidate here) is a vote for Obama/Romney” and other such nonsense.
Change can come no other way. Be the change you want to see…and all that.
“‘I think this more or less seals the deal for Romney’
Uh, Romney’s law was the basis for Obamacare.”
What do I love about the HBB? For one, inconvenient truths surface here on a regular basis.
Seals the deal for Romney? Only if health care is a big enough issue to sway independents away from Obama. I don’t know if that’s the case.
As for the talking point that “60% of America is against Obamacare” (or whatever number), note that that includes the people who think Obamacare didn’t go far enough. They aren’t going to vote for Romney.
While I am against Obamacare or any other Government run system, I plan to use the living s..t out of any benefits and will encourage everyone I know to do the same thing.
Wait until middle class people like myself begin to quit our jobs, become “independent contractors” and start sucking off of the Government teat in large numbers. You won’t need to import poverty from Mexico to crash the system.
Now it’s time to go all in, let’s mandate 100% of income pensions at age 55, sounds good to me and I don’t care who pays for it as long as I get mines.
Government run? I see it as Government influenced, but without a public option I don’t see it as Government run.
What else to do then? I can’t bring myself to vote for Romney.
Leave that part of the ballot blank and cast a vote for all the other offices.
Better yet, stay home entirely on election day and let *others* decide who your Senators, Representitives, judges and school board will be. Just don’t whine if you don’t like the outcome.
“How can it be a tax if it goes to a private insurance company. ”
It doesn’t; it goes to the treasury. It’s designed, apparently, to screw the insurance companies. Because you can blow it off and pay a few hundred dollars, then get insurance when you need it.
So much for the power of the insurance lobby.
Sorry Charlie,
We all have to buy the same policy now. It’s going to be so wonderful. I can’t wait until the Bush tax cuts go away and the new Obamacare taxes hit.
That tidal wave of economic problems just keeps rolling closer. It’s time to batten down the hatches.
ObamaCare was (IS) a legislative monolith, out of sync with an iPad world.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303649504577492842719751040.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
I would have let the Insurance industry collapse on its own weight.
x eleventygazillion
if you have insurance they automatically charge you double they would charge someone paying with cash.
auto body shops are some of the worst. first they they ask, do you have insurance?
People pay higher premiums because all the fraud going on.
So true, but waiting for the STHTF is the American way of dealing with problems.
I would have let the Insurance industry collapse on its own weight.
And how many people would suffer in the meantime?
Disease and pain don’t politely wait for Congress to finish their horse-trading.
I’m assuming the cap they put on how much of each insurance dollar can be diverted to things other than health care ( ie management marketing etc ) will now be removed by lobbiests in Washington. I believe it was capped at 20% very generous given that medicare does the same thing for 5% or less. With the cap gone they can charge what ever they want and you have to pay.
If they have enough votes to over come a presidential veto, they would get rid of the whole thing, not dump that tiny piece.
some are already having to issue refunds…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-consumers-unaware-of-health-insurance-premium-rebates-ehealthinsurance-survey-finds-2012-06-13
“And how many people would suffer in the meantime?”
I’m sure the health care providers will gladly accept cash or chickens or whatever in the absence of an insurance system.
I think a win is a loss and a loss is a win in the long term.
PPACA (Obamacare) includes numerous provisions to take effect over several years beginning in 2010. Policies issued before the law was promulgated are grandfathered from most federal regulations.
Guaranteed issue and partial community rating will require insurers to offer the same premium to all applicants of the same age and geographical location without regard to most pre-existing conditions (excluding tobacco use).[18][19][20]
A shared responsibility requirement, commonly called an individual mandate,[21][22] requires that all persons not covered by an employer sponsored health plan, Medicaid, Medicare or other public insurance programs, purchase and comply with an approved private insurance policy or pay a penalty, unless the applicable individual is a member of a recognized religious sect exempted by the Internal Revenue Service, or waived in cases of financial hardship.[23]
Medicaid eligibility is expanded to include all individuals and families with incomes up to 133% of the poverty level along with a simplified CHIP enrollment process.[24][25]
Health insurance exchanges will commence operation in each state, offering a marketplace where individuals and small businesses can compare policies and premiums, and buy insurance (with a government subsidy if eligible).[26]
Low income persons and families above the Medicaid level and up to 400% of the federal poverty level will receive federal subsidies[27] on a sliding scale if they choose to purchase insurance via an exchange (persons at 150% of the poverty level would be subsidized such that their premium cost would be of 2% of income or $50 a month for a family of 4).[28]
Minimum standards for health insurance policies are to be established and annual and lifetime coverage caps will be banned.[29][30][31]
Firms employing 50 or more people but not offering health insurance will also pay a shared responsibility requirement if the government has had to subsidize an employee’s health care.[32]
Very small businesses will be able to get subsidies if they purchase insurance through an exchange.[33]
Co-payments, co-insurance, and deductibles are to be eliminated for select health care insurance benefits considered to be part of an “essential benefits package”[34] for Level A or Level B preventive care.[35][36]
Changes are enacted that allow a restructuring of Medicare reimbursement from “fee-for-service” to “bundled payments.”[37][38]
Additional support is provided for medical research and the National Institutes of Health.[39]
“…Health insurance exchanges will commence operation in each state, offering a marketplace where individuals and small businesses can compare policies and premiums, and buy insurance (with a government subsidy if eligible).[26]…”
As a private payer, this is the provision that has me dancing today; the death-knell of the health “insurance” industry.
When citizens can CHOOSE their insurer instead of being stuck in their respective geographic pool, insurance companies will be forced to become competitive and reimbursements will standardize. None of this charging us self-insureds double the premium and co-pays because we don’t have collective bargaining on our side to help negotiate for us.
As a private payer, this is the provision that has me dancing today; the death-knell of the health “insurance” industry.
I’m also dancing. And I like your use of the quotes. Oh, do I ever!
So someone who smokes 3 packs a day gets the same health insurance and the same price as someone who’s never touched a cigarette in their lives. AWESOME!!
Health insurance exchanges essentially give the people in the individual market similar (probably not the same) bargaining power as someone working for a company because they will be competing for the business of a lot of people. Insurance companies seemed to think that they had to make money on the “pool” for a large company but on each individual person in the individual market. Now they are looking at the money they can make on the pool for both corporate and individual markets.
“I’m also dancing.”
So you feel good knowing that people like me, wage earners in the 90k to 130k range will be paying for your lifestyle? The notion that the rich will be paying for this is total BS.
Ahansen, you seemed to have had a privileged life and now I have to pay for your health care. What’s in it for me? Where is my payoff?
Nick,
I’ve maintained a private payer policy since 1977 (could have bought a nice house for what I’ve paid in premiums over the years) and I’ve been paying for everyone’s medical care but my own ever since then.
How DARE you accuse me of living off your efforts? I’ve probably paid more in taxes in my lifetime than you’ve earned at your 130K a year. I’ve also paid a bloody fortune to my insurance company– which when I needed it reimbursed me exactly zilch.
Personally, I’m thrilled that Walmart is going to have to pay for its employees’ health care instead of pawning it off on the taxpaying public. You should be, too.
I know people that make a ton more money than I do that can’t wait for me to pay for their health care. So please don’t lecture me…and you can compare portfolios with someone who cares. The truth is the truth.
“Health insurance exchanges will commence operation in each state, offering a marketplace where individuals and small businesses can compare policies and premiums, and buy insurance ”
Uhmm you realize you can do that right now, don’t you and without the need of a 2700 page bill to boot. Imagine that!
No, Smithers, we can’t “do that right now”. Private payers are held to a different reimbursement and premium scale than corporate, union, government collectives.
Don’t misunderstand, I support a single payer public health system for public health-related issues, with private insurance available for those wishing “elective” treatments and procedures. But I also believe that smoking/obesity/lifestyle choice diseases like diabetes and obesity-linked hypertension will have to fall into the “elective” pool and not be covered by the public health service.
Unfortunately, everyone would have to agree on the causes of obesity and lifestyle choice diseases before striking it from insurance. If you don’t know how to prevent a condition, you can’t knock someone who has the condition.
Smoking is a clear-cut case, but what about obesity and diabetes? At the moment, there are huge disagreements as to what causes those, even on this board. Oh, we roughly know what causes it, insulin and sugar and what not, but the prevention isn’t so clear cut.
But I also believe that smoking/obesity/lifestyle choice diseases like diabetes and obesity-linked hypertension will have to fall into the “elective” pool and not be covered by the public health service.
WOW. It reminded me a story I heard aftermath of Katrina. Some of the do-gooders who went there to help ended up running a kitchen and immediately voted to provide vegan meals for the hungry masses.
Don’t you think, at least in USA the people you describe are more in need of “public health service” than people with healthy lifestyles. Prolly it doesn’t matter anyway. The goal was as always not to find a tough workable solution but a “feel-good” solution.
ahansen,
You:
“Health insurance exchanges will commence operation in each state, offering a marketplace where individuals and small businesses can compare policies and premiums, and buy insurance ”
Me: “Uhmm you realize you can do that right now, don’t you and without the need of a 2700 page bill to boot. Imagine that!”
You: “No, Smithers, we can’t “do that right now”. Private payers are held to a different reimbursement and premium scale than corporate, union, government collectives.”
Your original comment was about individuals comparing and buying policies in a marketplace. You can do that right this very moment without Obamacare. I have my own health insurance. When I bought a policy, I compared premiums and policies and bought the policy. All without the aid of a federal bureaucrat holding my hand. Amazing , huh? My premium was $650/mo 2 years ago. Then Obamacare was signed. The renewal last year went to $718. This year to $775 with a higher deductible for prescriptions in addition to the higher premium. I can only guess how much additional Obamacare savings I can expect in the years to come.
Nice try, Smithers.
I watched my premiums go from $233/month to $1682/month. All this BEFORE Obama was elected. They’ve gone down significantly since 2008, ($1100+) but I still can’t afford what amounts to out-of-pocket care.
The ability to buy into an out-of-state exchange will make all the difference.
Then ahansen you have to include AIDS in that as well is a lifestyle choice with some serious consequences.
. But I also believe that smoking/obesity/lifestyle choice diseases like diabetes and obesity-linked hypertension will have to fall into the “elective” pool and not be covered by the public health service.
Right, dj. Folks who received tainted blood transfusions, got nailed by infected rapists, etc., should be forced to the same standards as people who can’t keep their piehole closed when confronted by a bag of Cheetos. Next.
“…everyone would have to agree on the causes of obesity and lifestyle choice diseases before striking it from insurance. If you don’t know how to prevent a condition, you can’t knock someone who has the condition….”
“Everyone” DOES agree on how to prevent obesity. The cause is quite simple: taking in more calories than you burn off. There are no fatties in concentration camps. Limit yourself to 800 calories a day for six months, and I guarantee you’ll dump weight; if you don’t, limit yourself to 500. If that doesn’t work, go to 300. See how it works?
Anything else is just an excuse.
Here’s to hoping everyone is safe from the fires in Colorado, Montana, & anywhere else that is burning.
what ever happened to Sammy? did he change names or quit?
He’s bathing FBs’ feet. The lord works in mysterious ways.
As I recall, he made some sort of announcement that he was no longer going to be critical of people and he would be implementing Christian values in his life (posters, please correct me if I’m wrong). He made a couple of posts after that and I don’t see anything that would indicate he’s still posting, even under another name. At least, nothing in the style of his former posts. I wish him well. He was very hard on himself regarding his former point of view.
Interesting…….
I never was offended by Sammy’s posts. I agree he was too critical on himself. A very humble individual.
I wonder what happened to ATE-Up…wasn’t he a disbarred lawyer from his coke usage?
After we learned of Olympiagal’s death, he didn’t come around here very often.
I forgot about that…he seemed like a nice guy, but he also seemed (to me) like he had a mindset that would make it easy to fall off the wagon. But I guess you could say that for any addict…
Oh what a pity. He had a hell of a sense of humor. I miss him and NYCboy a lot.
Don’t get much of that ascerbic east coast wit around here.
Sorry to see him go; he was one of the most reasonable posters on here. An unfortunate ephiphany, if that is what happened.
(this was supposed to go under Palmetto’s post)
Yes, Bronco. I admired his stand on personal responsibility. It always pains me when people abandon personal responsiblity and delegate it to the government, religion, corporations, Obama, racism, the banks, whatever.
I think he was tweaking with us, Bronco. Sammy will live forever, Jesus or no.
But if you’re out there, Samster, please come back? We need your always-thoughtful perspective.
word.
——————————————————————————————–
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-06-28 02:02:36
For the Power-Smithers-Rental Team:
The 2005 run up was an anomaly and is never coming back. Did you really think that the demographics of the Phoenix Metro Area could really support 500k starter homes and 300k apartment conversion condos? Please, have you taken a look around? I even see businesses boarding up in “Affluent” Scottsdale.
If you were simply used house salespeople, you would not be on here pushing your agenda, you would be hoping for increased transaction volume, not rising prices and rents. No, you have skin in the game, you have been out there buying or you are clinging to failed investments from yesteryear. Come clean…the truth will set you free.
Phoenix and Vegas were surreal, the ultimate poster children for the bubble. Why anyone would want to live in those furnaces is beyond me. 500K starter homes? I wouldn’t pay that much in San Diego. Phoenix? What did they put in the water? LSD?
It’s a furnace in July and August. October to April is beee-U-ti-fool. Not saying that justifies $500K starter homes (which never happened BTW, starter homes were $200K at the peak of the bubble in PHX and LV). But I always laugh when people say I’d never live in the desert because it’s 110 degrees. 110 degrees for a couple of months in the summer in exchange for 70 degrees in January isn’t a bad deal IMO.
Wish that was the case in Florida. In these parts, we endure 5-6 months of relentless heat and humidititty.
He didn’t say what it is like in May, June and September.
“He didn’t say what it is like in May, June and September.”
May = sporadic furnace
June = more frequent furnace-like conditions, but when the little extra humidity sneaks in combined with 110, sucks. Like today. The air is just toxic, a rainstorm helps a bit, when it comes.
September = Is this thing over yet? Parking regularly in a garage makes a big difference in the misery factor, along with the obvious good air-conditioning at home/office.
But plenty of space and cheap labor, so no reason for anything other than relatively cheap housing.
“110 degrees for a couple of months in the summer”
According to wikipedia (for Phoenix):
“The temperature reaches and exceeds 100°F (38°C), on average for 110 days of the year, including most days from late May through to early September.”
A chart also shows that temperatures are in the upper 80’s and above from April through October.
No thanks.
But its DRY heat, and yes 110 and 9% humidity is a lot better then 95 and 70% …..i find it hard to breath sometimes in the heavy humidity and in the subways when there is absolutely NO air circulation except for the subway cars moving….
So florridahh would not be a good place for me to move. I did live in South Carolina, and its about as far south as i would ever move again.
I said 2 months of 110.
I will agree that hot and humid blows even more than hot and dry.
1) My joints in my shoulders feel great in the 110 degree Phoenix heat.
2) I don’t have to wait in a 300-person line at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport for the rental car shuttle bus after Spring Training ends March 31.
3) Phoenix area Restaurants offer the same quality food in July as they do in February but with less waiting time.
4) The sunsets can be remarkable
5) You know you are a Phoenician when you look forward to its monsoon and want a major thunderstorm
6) There are still great places to get a cold beer on tap
7) Water temp of indoor pools at fitness clubs seem very cold and you feel dry all day after a brisk swim - in July.
“It’s a furnace in July and August.”
Umm, no. It can hit 100+ by March and has in many of the 21 years I have lived in the valley. Also, you are lucky to go down below 100 by mid October. The only saving grace is the nights are quite comfortable even on 100 degree days in March/April and Late September.
Not knocking the area, I live here, just putting the truth out there. Have to make sure the rich Canadian cash buyers are fully informed.
I admit I was in Phoenix full time through three summers: 2001, 2006, and 2007. But I maintained my full time residence there since the end of Summer 2000. March can get to 100. I do not think it got to 100 in March this year though.
I love Phoenix but I hope to one day just rent a cabin in Flagstaff from mid-June to the end of September every year.
Mornings in May and even early June can make you want to wear a sweatshirt. It can be in the low 60s. being dry, that’s chilly.
Very hot July, August and September. I lived there for 3 years. Ahwatukee.
My biggest complaint Lots of mosquitoes all the stupid fake lakes they have there.
Those lake kill me too. I don’t understand the fixation people have with them.
I’ve been away from home since the middle of this month and won’t be back until mid-July. Funny how I miss Phoenix, though here in the south bay part of L.A. the high temps are about 70 this time of year.
But in Vegas you can gamble 7×24x365!
Hmmmm . . . maybe 24 x 7 x 52?
golly, you’re right!
Speaking of gambling, the Phoenix housing market has been nothing but a giant casino for amateur investors and the REIC. I would like to know why, because it is ruining this area for the people that have to live here.
Example:
There were some really nice apartment complexes in my area of Phoenix that were imbedded in quality planned communities. I lived in one years ago, the manager screened everyone very carefully and it was not uncommon to have renters there for 7 years or longer.
Along comes the run up of 2005, this complex (and many others) decide to go condo. This one got in a bit late and only sold about 40% before the crash, and we were left with unsold units and a smattering of accidental landlord flippers.
Fast forward to the present day. Now that most of the units have been foreclosed on and resold, you have a rental community with hundreds of individual landlords and varying standards. No one person could be considered the manager and I doubt that the condo association has any power given the circumstances.
This complex and several others have now become a blight on the community, they are no longer safe places to live, I am pretty sure we have drug activity going on and some of the characters walking around the area are menacing to say the least.
Sad story about that place.
Community ruined by the RE hysteria.
I once lived in the Sunscape apartments on Hayden Rd in Scottsdale. I moved out after I was burglarized. The management was not sympathetic at all and out I went and lived with a sister in central Phoenix. Then the bubble came. Sunscape went conversion. Then the inevitable bust (how I love big busts, but that could be another story). .
Sunscape is in a great area. It was within staggering distance to Old Scottsdale bars. You could also make a walk to Fashion Square. If you loved golf, it’s right there. But SHTF as manias go.
Pre-bubble, across the Continental golf course you could buy a 2 bedroom flat for $118,000. Post Bubble: I think the deal is the same. The areas are not gated. It’s within drunk driving distance of ASU (five miles). Most of my neighbors were ASU party animals. I never shmoozed. Had my very wonderful intelligent girlfriend in her late 30s. The younger babes were …babes only. Nothing to get me excited about.
Ha, I know Sunscape, I used to live down the street in San Tropez back in the mid 90’s. Great part of Scottsdale for young people.
I consider the miserably hot period in Phoenix to be from June 1 to October 1. I think that a lot of Midwesterners who move here are willing to put up with those four months in exchange for never having to experience winter again. There are also Mexicans who put up with it to live in America. Then there are Californians like the low house prices.
Of course, the desirability of low housing costs was forgotten during the bubble. People don’t just move to Phoenix for the melanoma. They move for the low cost of living. If house prices in AZ would have stayed high, the state would have lost its appeal to retirees and other migrants.
“People don’t just move to Phoenix for the melanoma. They move for the low cost of living.”
If people just wanted cheap housing they’d move to Gary, IN or Detroit. It’s not a coincidence that over the past 20 years the biggest growing cities have been in warm climates.
If people just wanted cheap housing they’d move to Gary, IN or Detroit. It’s not a coincidence that over the past 20 years the biggest growing cities have been in warm climates.
Also not a coincidence that the energy to run A/C and transport food has been cheap and reliable?
It’s the low cost of living and the non-cold climate. San Diego has much better weather than Phoenix, but the hordes are not moving to San Diego in the same numbers.
Make that June 15 to October 1.
Early June, mornings are decent and dry. 70 degrees is cool. But most often 5:30 am you are feeling temps in the 60s. Then in mid-June it starts becoming humid.
http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2012/06/27/phoenix-home-prices-up-32-in-past-year.html?surround=etf&ana=e_article&page=all
Absent massive distressed inventory, prices will rise until prices are such that more sellers are willing to sell, and fewer buyers are willing to buy.
To be clear, I DO NOT expect this point to be anywhere close to the peak pricing (nor have I ever said such a thing), but I think that ASU’s view of the trajectory of price increases flattening out is accurate.
The price increases that have been seen recently are certainly not sustainable, and I have now confirmed with more than one source that builders are indeed finishing new lots (at least in the better locations in the Phoenix markets), which will add supply that will take the pressure off.
I also have also recently heard of some disturbing trends emerging, with investor buyers in Phoenix (people who intend to rent the homes) are attempting to buy NEW homes. Some builders are simply not selling to such investors (Hooray!), but other builders are selling some of the new home inventory to those investors on a limited basis (I’m guessing under the “all money is green” theory of greed).
There are also some reports of very different actions being taken by builders with respect to price increases in their sale product from one phase to the next…some builders are increasing prices by ~$500-$1,000 phase to phase, but others are pushing prices by a multiple of that ($10,000+).
Apparently the “robust and sustainable” recovery view is not shared by all builders–a lot of frayed nerves out there (and rightfully so).
They really pushed AZ RE here in CA in 2004 and 2005 , radio ads, billboards, anything to get home owners to extract equity and then take a bit out of the transaction.
Turnkey homes cash flow positive all managed by professionals
it was crazy
It was a scam. Renters there in Phoenix were / are the winners.
“The 2005 run up was an anomaly and is never coming back.”
Hey we agree on something! Well, I’m not comfortable say “never”, but I agree it was an anomaly and is very unlikely to come back. Does anyone one on here think we’re at the beginning of another run up like 2005? Don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone on here state that they think 2005 is coming back.
And for the sake of accuracy, starter homes in Phoenix were never anywhere near $500k. Maybe $200k depending on how you define a starter home. But $200k wasn’t sustainable either, hence the 50+% drop in prices.
You don’t have to exaggerate the facts for Phoenix. They’re pretty extreme already. The run-up was ridiculous and the drop was spectactular.
And since a handful of people are convinced that anyone that doesn’t think the housing market is going to zero in the near future is a card-carrying lying realtor, for the record, I do not work in real estate and never have. Not even anything remotely related to real estate. And the only real estate I own is my primary residence which I purchased a year ago. At this point, I couldn’t care less if real estate goes up or down. I’m trying to analyze the facts objectively and have historically found intelligent arguments on this blog…
“And since a handful of people are convinced that anyone that doesn’t think the housing market is going to zero in the near future is a card-carrying lying realtor, for the record, I do not work in real estate and never have. Not even anything remotely related to real estate. And the only real estate I own is my primary residence which I purchased a year ago. At this point, I couldn’t care less if real estate goes up or down. I’m trying to analyze the facts objectively and have historically found intelligent arguments on this blog…”
Realtors are liars.
You say you’re not one, therefore you are lying and because realtors are liars it proves you’re a realtor.
- Truth
I know, I know, the logic is pretty bulletproof. But nonetheless I will not rest until I find a hole in it!
Good luck out there in your ventures.
“Good luck out there in your ventures.”
The newly minted home-debtors are going to need alot of luck…. and a few bailouts too.
Realtors around here are uniformly insisting that the bottom was LAST summer.\
All I can say to that is, “we’ll see”.
FunYuns is out lying to the public and misrepresenting the truth again….
http://lansner.ocregister.com/2012/06/26/realtor-guru-10-home-price-jump-possible/164009/
When will NAR ever stop ripping off the public?
Short answer: no.
Is it a matter of lying, or is it just that Yun is utterly clueless about the state of the economy, and particularly, the housing market?
Hard to say…
“Strong demand among buyers, higher sales, lower number of homes for sale, and a level of foreclosures that – while high – has steadily decreased over the past two years.”
After having read the article, and particularly the quote above, I think he’s clueless by choice. There are some stats he can use to support his theory, and he’s willfully avoided digging any deeper.
The lower number of homes for sale is due to shadow inventory, and the higher sales is a wave of investors that isn’t sustainable(1). Once the investors start trying to sell or rent the properties after rehabbing them, supply for shelter will overwhelm demand in many markets.
1
http://www.forbes.com/sites/morganbrennan/2012/04/03/investors-flock-to-housing-aspiring-to-own-thousands-of-homes/
The NAR experts seem blithely oblivious to the role of government life support in creating the false appearance of a housing bottom.
The low numbers of homes for sale is primarily because:
a) Many private sellers don’t want to sell at today’s prices; and
b) Many private sellers are too underwater and CANNOT sell at today’s prices.
Regardless of whether financial institutions are eeking out inventory on the market, what is happening today should be an indicator of what the state of home prices will be with current government policy on the other side of the shadow inventory.
In looking at the numbers, I don’t see how there is enough shadow inventory in Phoenix to overwhelm the demand…REO of ~15,000 (per Foreclosure Radar) simply isn’t that much for the entire state of Arizona. Serious delinquencies in the low 3% range (as opposed to 11% in Florida and 7% in Nevada) per Fannie, equally is not high enough, IMHO to cause another leg down.
There is always shadow inventory. The question that you need to ask yourself and be critical of is HOW MUCH shadow inventory is there? And relative to the size of the market, is that amount of shadow inventory enough to change the direction of the market?
I would be quite nervous about Nevada and Florida (and many other judicial states)…the amount of shadow inventory that is in those markets very well could overwhelm those markets if it was released even at a moderate pace.
I am less nervous about shadow inventory overwhelming markets in places like Arizona and California at this point. In part because those two states have been steadily whittling away at their non-current loan pools for the past 2+ years, making the amount of shadow inventory in those markets relatively small (as compared to judicial states), and in part because Phoenix is a strong population growth market (to absorb any excess supply), and in part because CA has a generally shortage of shelter relative to its population (it is hard to argue that there is excess supply).
With respect to investors driving prices too high, and causing more development to occur than warranted based on the need for shelter?…THIS IS A BIG CONCERN. This is especially a concern in markets that have relatively high vacancy rates currently, and can add supply quickly in response to over-exuberance from investors (like Phoenix).
If I bought residential land in Phoenix during the downturn, I’d be selling over the next 6-12 months. I think chances are good that I would actually be leaving money on the table (as I think there is a good possibility that land values are even higher 2 years from now) but as the saying goes, pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.
I wouldn’t be buying homes right now as investments either…if builders sell to investors too much (and overbuild based on a false reading of actual demand for shelter), there is a real risk of another bubble forming in Phoenix. Buying homes in Phoenix for something other than personal shelter, is starting to look entirely like a momentum play…not a good sign if you want to avoid another bubble.
I’m ready for it…flame on Truth (I can predict that you’ll call me a liar, and state unequivocally that prices are still falling and will continue to fall for the foreseeable future).
You pretend to know construction practices, estimating, and bidding and it was demonstrated you don’t have even basic fundamental knowledge of this business.
You rah rah rents and prices when rents and prices are falling.
I’m not flaming you. You’re putting yourself out there as something you’re not and you’re misrepresenting the truth. You ask for it, we oblige.
I see the same thing in Phoenix. Seems to be the difference between states with trustee sales vs judicial foreclosures. The trustee sale states fall much faster because the foreclosed properties come to market much faster. It was much uglier here than most other places a few years ago, but the market appears to be much healthier than most other places today.
I have never claimed to be involved directly with construction practices/estimating/bidding. You did however at one point claim that you were a developer…which I’m assuming is a…lie?
We invest in real estate. In that process our partners hire contractors…they do the bidding, etc. I do understand what drives capital investment into real estate development, what homebuilders expect as profit margins, how they build their pro formas (business plans), how to underwrite opportunities, including concepts like residual land values, market demand, etc.
The most important concept people need to understand when thinking about where we are in the housing cycle is “residual land value”.
For those unfamiliar with the phrase “residual land value”, it is the number that is left after a builder takes the market value of a piece of real estate and backs out all the non-land costs of development/construction and a profit margin. This is what they are willing to pay for land when they develop–the land’s value. If the calculation results in a negative number, there is no price where they can afford to pay for land in order to build homes.
What has been keeping builders building is there ability to buy finished residential lots at less than the infrastructure costs (ie. buying the land at a negative residual land value). The amount of land in that condition is finite (and shrinking with every home built).
Residual land values being negative (and they have been for a number of years) is an unstable low point. Phoenix, with builders now buying raw land and finishing it is an indicator that residual land values are now greater than zero, but it took a spike up in prices to get there. Unless of course, you believe that prices haven’t spiked up.
IMHO, other markets will follow suit. I think we will see new communities dry up in many markets unless and until residual land values become positive again. This can only happen if the costs to develop fall, or home prices rise. In Phoenix it appears as though the path taken was home prices rising.
Oh, and another thing…if you believe (as Truth apparently does), that builders have massive profit margins, and can easily build at today’s home values, then things like bidding wars and price spikes should NEVER arise in markets where there is available land. A free market would prevent such a thing, as builders would simply build more to meet demand.
If however, you believe (as I do) that residual land values were negative in many places in the country (including Phoenix), it would predict in those markets the following pattern:
1. A shrinking of new home inventories (as existing finished lots are exhausted);
2. Followed by demand outstripping supply;
3. Followed by a mini price spike (bringing residual land values greater than $0, and up to a point where land owners are willing to sell);
4. Followed by new land being developed into homes:
5. Followed by a leveling off of home prices as supply catches up.
Phoenix appears to have gone from stage 1 to 4 in a very short period of time (less than a year).
California appears to be at stage 2 right now.
“With respect to investors driving prices too high, and causing more development to occur than warranted based on the need for shelter?…THIS IS A BIG CONCERN.”
There is also all the building that happened during the boom. There was definitely more being built than household formation. There’s a lot of inventory not on the market in one way or the other, but how long can it remain hidden. And agreed, it is a big concern if these price spikes get the builders all excited and back to work.
“There is also all the building that happened during the boom. There was definitely more being built than household formation.”
Yes, but we have followed that with 4 years (going on 5) of the lowest new construction on record. Population didn’t stop growing in the meantime, and “shadow households” were created (ie. married children living at home with parents itching to get out on their own).
The most applicable number to pay attention to in this regard is the vacancy rates. In this respect all is not rosy in AZ, FL, or NV, with double-digit rental vacancy rates. In CA however, the vacancy rate is below where it was at the peak, indicating no slack in the system vis-a-via more physical structures than needed.
You wouldn’t know what margins are in this business. You’re not in it nor have you ever been. You merely pretend to know.
In this respect all is not rosy in AZ, FL, or NV, with double-digit rental vacancy rates.
Here in Tucson, the rental vacancy rate is around 16%.
But that’s not stopping people from snapping up houses in hopes of becoming rich as SFR landlords. I think they’re about to get a harsh lesson in the realities of dealing with tenants, repairs, and unhappy neighbors, but hey, that’s just me.
OK then, since I don’t know, what’s the common profit margin range for a public homebuilder (profit divided by gross sales price of the home)? Please educate.
YOU tell us. You claim to be in the construction biz. YOU claim to know what margins are. Develop your bid estimate on the project and show us where you’re making money. It’s not that difficult for anyone in this business.
Go on now.
For building subdivisions (not one-off homes), public builders generally back into their residual land values using an 8-10% profit margin (more/less depending on the market environment)
The answer to the question doesn’t require putting together a bid–if you don’t understand that, you don’t have a fundamental understanding of the economics of homebuilding.
Look Rental Pimp,
We’re not interest in your stock analysis of shanty constructors.YOU said you’re in the construction biz and you know how to bid work. Show us us a single project that YOU executed, where you earned your margins, what your margin is… Hell… Post your schedule of values for it. ANYTHING.
You’re all flash and no cash. You’re nothing more than a used house pimp.
He’s got that job BECAUSE he’s clueless. His job is to spin everything to sound positive for real estate and he does it very well. Analyzing facts without bias isn’t really the job he was hired to do.
Who cares rental bitch? He’s lying to the public…. just like you.
Haha, are you on medication? Should you be?
Haha, are you under indictment? You will be.
What’s with the name calling?
I don’t shrink from the cussin’ if I think it’s warranted. But there’s no reason to sound like the eighth reincarnation of Tupac.
Seriously, psychiatrist’s are able to do wonderful things now for people that otherwise might have to be institutionalized. It could just be a matter of a quick prescription and suddenly you’re out there in the world functioning like a normal human being. Give it some thought.
You’re a fraud.
“Seriously, psychiatrist’s are able to do wonderful things now for people that otherwise might have to be institutionalized.”
Is there any known cure for Realtors®’ known tendency to lie compulsively?
You’re fascinating. Are you physically small?
“Is there any known cure for Realtors®’ known tendency to lie compulsively?”
I have no idea. Can probably cure compulsive lying with talk therapy? I’m not an expert, but I don’t think you can medicate that away.
Can you remove “Intellectual” from your name? Seems disingenuous. You used to post mostly facts and real analysis. I’ve been reading this blog since back when you were ‘Get Stucco’. What happened?
You’re fascinating. Are you physically small?
Now that f*ing funny!
LOL!!
“You’re a fraud.”
More like you’re a crank.
Are you physically small?
I guffawed (GOL’d?) at that as well.
Are you physically small?
I am! Pick me! Pick me!
Is there any known cure for Realtors®’ known tendency to lie compulsively?
Yes. A court room.
Are you mentally small?
“Real estate always goes up.”
“Real estate always goes down.”
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.
– Ralph Waldo Emerson
Wow, look what I did there! Neat! Except I’ve never said “real estate always goes up” so…I think maybe I’m not following the point you’re trying to make???
I am! Pick me! Pick me!
Is petite sweet?
You’re underwater Crack Power. lmao
“I think maybe I’m not following the point you’re trying to make???”
OK, let me try again: Don’t say foolish things, and I will agree not to point out the foolish things you say.
06.06.2012
Schuldenkrise Ahnungslos in die Euro-Dämmerung
Eine Kolumne von Wolfgang Münchau
Euro-Münzen:
Zerbricht die Währungsgemeinschaft?
Zur Großansicht
DPA
Die meisten Bürger ahnen es noch nicht, doch das Endspiel um den Euro hat begonnen: Entweder Europas Regierungen schaffen noch schnell eine politische Union oder die Währungsgemeinschaft zerbricht. Egal, für welchen Weg sie sich entscheiden - für eine billige Lösung ist es wahrscheinlich längst zu spät.
…
For those who were wondering:
“Most citizens realizing it yet, but the endgame has begun for the euro: Either Europe’s governments quickly create even a political union or common currency breaks. No matter which path they choose - for a cheap solution, it is probably already too late.”
Yep, the only solution is going to cost a lot of people a lot of money.
Here is my nitpicky revision von deine Übersetzung:
“Though most citizens still don’t realize it, the endgame for the Euro definitely has already begun: Either European governments need to quickly establish a political union, or the currency union will break up. Regardless of the choice, it is probably far too late for a cheap solution.”
28 June 2012 Last updated at 11:46 ET
Merkel faces tensions at key euro summit in Brussels
EU leaders are examining how to ease the eurozone debt crisis amid competing visions about how to revive the worst-hit economies.
As the Brussels summit opened, French President Francois Hollande made a new plea for EU solidarity and Spain warned that its borrowing costs were too high.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel scorned talk of pooling eurozone debt, saying it would require more budget rigour.
But there appears to be broad agreement on new measures to stimulate growth.
On arrival at the summit, UK Prime Minister David Cameron said “these are hard decisions for the eurozone countries to make and we should be encouraging them to go ahead”.
But when asked about plans for transferring more budgetary powers to the EU level he said “I… in many ways share people’s concerns about Brussels getting too much power.”
…
Good luck to all in Colorado, including Sammy if he is still in The Springs. San Deigans who were evacuated in the 2003 or 2007 fires certainly feel your pain. My sister lived in The Springs up until a couple of years ago; I wonder if the condo she used to own is still intact.
Colorado wildfire destroys hundreds of homes
Updated 57m ago
COLORADO SPRINGS (AP) – Hundreds of homes have been destroyed by an out-of-control Colorado wildfire that has forced more than 30,000 people to flee, officials said Thursday.
Colorado Springs Mayor Steve Bach said a more accurate account will be available later in the day. An Associated Press aerial photo taken of one neighborhood Wednesday showed hundreds of heavily damaged or destroyed homes.
Tens of thousands of residents of Colorado’s second largest city took refuge with friends or family and crammed into hotels and shelters as Army troops helped firefighters protect the U.S. Air Force Academy from the flames.
…
Army troops helped firefighters protect the U.S. Air Force Academy from the flames.
Does anyone else find this pretty funny, that the Air Force apparently can’t protect their own Academy?
Conspiracy -
Even Kennedy didn’t vote for this. That makes Roberts’ vote kind of suspicious, doesn’t it? Is it that the PTB wanted this to happen, so Roberts offered himself to be the sacrificial lamb?
Or, is Roberts siding with business? Insurance business that is. The law gives free reign for insurance companies to jack up the price as they want and effectively say, they had no choice, it’s the law.
He ruled/saw it as just another big government tax.
On top of the hundreds of other.
We are stuck with all of hope and change.
Obamacare has limits on how much policies can cost as a % of income.
The real shock is that the 4 dissenting justices wanted to vote the whole thing down, all 2700 pages. I hate to sound like a conspiracy nut, but this makes 0 sense that Roberts of all people was the 5th vote to uphold. Kennedy? Sure I could see that. But Roberts? Something’s fishy.
I think they can jack up all they want this yr and next year.
Which will lead to a giant thud caused by people dropping coverage that they can no longer afford. Look for those people to call any and every elected official that they can. They’ll be demanding that something be done to help them.
And, mark my words, that something will be that public option that we heard so much about three years ago.
IMHO, the private health insurance industry’s days are numbered.
They’ll be demanding that something be done to help them.
The answer is it’s already done.
Slim,
I just want to make sure I understand you. Do you think the government run health care will be more friendly and a better deal?
True Story:
A liberal friend’s wife in SoCal came down with cancer a few years ago. Of course they freaked out, but the doctor said it wasn’t much to worry about and told them to come back in about 6 months.
Well, they pitched a royal fit. The doctor took the cancer out and from what I hear she’s doing great.
Now if that doctor was run by the government health care plan, how would they react to my buddy pitching a fit???
Do you think the government run health care will be more friendly and a better deal?
Yes I do. Because I have very un-liberal relatives who lived in another country that had — and still has — government-run health care.
You know what? They adored their country’s health care system. And they had very harsh things to say about the American system.
‘Scuse me. I should have said that I had these very un-liberal relatives. They both lived to ripe old ages in that country with government-run health care.
I miss them.
Lip,
Medicare is government-run and folks seem to like it a lot. And the US used to have a public health service that eradicated polio and rubella among other epidemic disease– for free.
It was only after “The Blues” came in and private corporations took over our health care system that costs and rampant fraud spiraled out of control.
Insurance companies can raise rates to $100M a day if they want. When 2014 comes along those rates will have to be adjusted downward to anyone making less than 400% above poverty. For a family with AGI under $88,000 the maximum premium for a policy will be $8000 and change. That’s what Obamacare says. So this notion that O-care is a giveaway to insurance companies is beyond ludicrous.
“Medicare is government-run ”
And it’s how many trillions of dollars in the red? I can’t wait until the same people who run Medicare run all health care. Maybe if I get in line now, I can see a doctor sometime in 2017.
“private health insurance industry’s days are numbered”
Please elaborate. My impression (not having read much about the new law) is that it forces everyone to buy an insurance policy, from a private insurance company. How is this going to lead to the death of insurance companies?
Please elaborate. My impression (not having read much about the new law) is that it forces everyone to buy an insurance policy, from a private insurance company. How is this going to lead to the death of insurance companies?
They are going to be regulated in ways that they haven’t been before. Meaning that they’ll have to be in the business of facilitating health care, rather than denying it.
I don’t think that many of our current health insurance companies are going to thrive under the new system.
“They are going to be regulated in ways that they haven’t been before. Meaning that they’ll have to be in the business of facilitating health care, rather than denying it.‘
Pure hyperbole. About 97% of all private insurance claims are approved. Which as a whole is higher than the % approved by your local govt run system…Medicare.
“Medicare is government-run ”
And it’s how many trillions of dollars in the red?
Medicare is in the red because private health insurance pawned off the old and sick pool on the government, while keeping the juicy young and healthy pool on the plan, paying a lot in premiums but not taking out much in claims.
That’s why libs are pushing for Medicare for All. Make the young and healthy pay for the old and sick directly by putting everyone in the same pool.
“…About 97% of all private insurance claims are approved…”
LMFAO. You’ve no idea what you’re talking about.
Sounds like what CC companies did in the 18 months it took from Ohboozoo signing the bill and it taking effect..millions maybe tens of millions of CC are now variable interest rates..
Or, is Roberts siding with business? Insurance business that is. The law gives free reign for insurance companies to jack up the price as they want and effectively say, they had no choice, it’s the law.
I protested a rate hike from my health “insurer” earlier this year. They justified it based on health care costs going up, among other things.
Well, folks, I’m here to tell you that this isn’t any old insurance company. It’s owned by Goldman Sachs. But it seems as if this poor, starving health insurance company just isn’t making enough money these days. So, they sent me their second rate hike notice in less than a year.
Since I’m a freelancer, I’m used to getting rejection letters. And health insurance companies, they’re very good at sending rejection letters. Especially when we’re applying for coverage or trying to get them to cover something after we’ve paid all those premiums.
So, in honor of their most recent rate increase, I’m turning the tables on them. I sent them a rejection letter. Details here.
To add to the fun, I also reported them to the Arizona Department of Insurance. I think the fact that they’re being sued by the City of Los Angeles for selling junk insurance, not to mention being barred for selling policies in Massachusetts for five years, may be of interest to my state’s regulators.
Slim, I urge you to visit PCIP.gov and see what is available in your state. If you have no pre-existing conditions shop around among reputable carriers.
Do not feed the sqid.
Ok $15K a year single…..6% so if you get sick and run up $50k in bills you need to pay $3k…more….like from where.. drug dealing?
Starting in 2014:You will have the option of buying a health plan through your state’s exchange with federal assistance. Based on your income, your annual premiums for that plan would be no more than $450 to $600. Your maximum out-of-pocket costs for deductibles and co-payments would be capped at 6 percent of the total cost.
Insurers can’t discriminate against you for having a pre-existing condition, and can only vary rates within a narrow range.
If you do not obtain insurance coverage by 2014 you will be assessed a tax penalty. The penalty becomes progressively greater from 2014 through 2016, when it reaches full strength. At that point, assuming your current income remains the same and your household consists of 1 uninsured adult, you would be subject to a penalty of about $695. You are exempt from the penalty if the least expensive plan option in your area exceeds eight percent of your income.
So you are complaining about the $3000 co-pay on $50,000 worth of health care? Without the insurance you likely wouldn’t have gotten the health care you needed at all unless you could have convinced someone that you would be able to pay the $50,000.
Polly;
I’m thinking more of innocent people getting shot at in drive bys.
Or a serious car accident by an illegal with no insurance..
Or you are self employed and having a bad year with little income. How are you supposed to come up with the co pays?
I guess this wont stop the 1 illness away from bankruptcy.
Roberts is a conservative. He doesn’t want the Supreme Court to be making decisions. That’s what this means.
“Roberts is a conservative. He doesn’t want the Supreme Court to be making decisions. That’s what this means.”
Huh? He just made the decision that the mandate is really a tax, even though the word tax is not mentioned anywhere in the law with regards to the mandate. If that’s not legislating from the bench I don’t know what is.
“Legislating from the bench”
I’m sick of that damn stupid phrase.
All three branches of the Government have equal, COUNTERBALANCING powers.
Says it right in the Constitution.
The Supreme Court has EVERY RIGHT to rule on, and interpret, laws. THAT’S THEIR JOB.
Because there is a shortage of high-rise luxury condo towers in downtown San Diego…
New 41-Story Condo To Be Built Downtown
By Ameerah Pargo
Story Updated: Jun 28, 2012 at 8:25 AM PDT
(SAN DIEGO) - The infamous builder, Nat Bosa has the green light for a new downtown development. Construction on latest sky scraper, or condo to be exact, will begin next year due to the recession, and be finished in 2016, according to U-T San Diego.
The starting price will be in the $750,000 range, offering 41-stories, 232 units, and 954-2,503 Square feet. His most recent completed project opened in 2009 with prices ranging from 569,000-$3.4 million.
Bosa is responsible for seven other downtown condos, including Electra, the tallest condo by floor count in the city. The sleek new, ocean front building will offer a modern glass-faced tower resembling a spiral shell, the paper reports.
…
I’ll bet that penthouse will be a barrel of fun when the next earthquake hits San Diego.
New phrase for the HBB dictionary: “The Ka-Ching Dynasty”
Seems that the Chinese scheme to pay inflated prices for copper, store it in bonded warehouses, and use it as collateral to borrow money to speculate in real estate/stock markets/casinos is not limited to copper. Cement Trucks?
http://tinyurl.com/7zn9oyc
As another bubble/Ponzi approaches implosion, the kleptocrats in China are looking for a safe haven.
We, of course, will welcome them with open arms, with FauxNews doing stories of how all of the Communist/Liberal peasants are trying to “take money away from the productive” and are “repressing Free Enterprise”
What will be interesting is when the new kleptocrats show up, and start outbidding our home grown kleptocrats for votes.
They already did. How do you think they got so many offshore contracts from us?
Speaking of former HBB posters gone AWOL, whatever became of the members of the gold bug brigade or the peak oil cult who used to post here?
June 28, 2012, 10:27 a.m. EDT
Oil slips amid fears summit to accomplish little
By Virginia Harrison and Sara Sjolin, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures declined on Thursday, as jitters amid the European Union summit, a stronger dollar, and lower U.S. stocks sent prices back to under $80 a barrel.
Crude oil for August delivery (CLQ2 -2.41%) shed 46 cents, or 0.6%, to $79.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The two-day summit under way targets the region’s swelling financial crisis, and it was off on a hopeful note as German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told The Wall Street Journal that Berlin may be willing to move more quickly than expected to accept shared liability of euro-zone debt and would back short-term measures to deal with the financing problems of some governments in the region.
“The mood is one part hope, one part trepidation, and one part fear that there will be a lack of resolution at this latest meeting, which is probably a fair (to optimistic) assessment,” said Matt Smith, an analyst with Summit Energy, in a note to clients.
A drop in weekly U.S. supplies combined with upbeat economic data had sent oil prices past $80 a barrel on Wednesday. Read more on Wednesday’s oil session.
Investors remain concerned, however, the European leaders would fail to produce credible measures to contain the region’s debt and banking crisis when they meet in Brussels for a two-day summit.
—————————————————————————————
June 28, 2012, 12:15 p.m. EDT
Gold lower on dollar, jitters about EU summit
By Claudia Assis and V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures declined Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and as investors feared little would be accomplished during the underway summit of European leaders.
Gold for August delivery (GCN2 -1.67%) slipped $22.70, or 1.4%, to $1,555.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, adding to earlier losses.
“The picture is not pretty for gold at the moment, it hasn’t been,” said Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading in Chicago. “Today is risk off.”
As the debt crisis in the euro zone has ratch up and investor also feared a global slowdown, gold has often fail to catch any safe-haven bids and has behaved alongside assets considered riskier.
The uncertainty ahead of the summit, the rising dollar, and sharply lower U.S. stocks contributed to Thursday’s fail so far, Lesh added.
Some investors also appeared to be sitting out while the euro zone leaders sort out solutions to the sovereign debt crisis.
“Gold trading volume has been low recently. This might be due to the summer doldrums or because without concrete improvement in the situation in the euro zone … gold lacks clear near-term direction,” said James Steel, a bullion analyst at HSBC.
…
Is now the time to buy (gold), just before we collectively jump off a cliff?
June 28, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EDT
4 ways to profit at the edge of the fiscal cliff
By Robert Powell, MarketWatch
BOSTON (MarketWatch)—It’s impossible to say what, if anything, lawmakers will do as the U.S. economy approaches the so-called “fiscal cliff” at the end of this year. But investors need to have a plan, maybe two or three plans, to protect themselves.
…
Buy gold
Damon Barglow, an independent financial adviser, is among those who say the economic impact will be dramatic if the fiscal cliff becomes a reality. What’s more, he said, the outlook is even worse “when you factor in the payroll tax cut reversal and the removal of other sources of fiscal stimulus.”
If we go off the cliff, “growth in the U.S. will be even slower and the probability of a recession increases,” he said. So, his advice is to consider investing in gold, specifically the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD -1.36%), even at current levels.
…
Are we going off an “inflation” cliff or a “deflation” cliff? Seems to me that makes a pretty big difference as to whether or not you should buy gold. If we’re going off an “inflation” cliff, hold anything except dollars (including gold). If we’re going off a “deflation” cliff, don’t hold anything except dollars.
If we go off the fiscal cliff as it’s currently defined (a massive cut in government spending), that’s deflationary and one of the last things you’d want to own is gold.
Since we don’t know, you’ve gotta have some of each. All yer eggs in one basket is never a good move. Personally I think that deflation is the ‘natural’ route all things being equal, but the government (including the Fed) have it in their power to shatter confidence in the currency and cause hyperinflation. The attempts to ‘fix’ things are steps in this direction.
FWIW, Oil and Gasoline are still pretty pricey.
I think what happened is they were gold bugs at $800/oz, and now that it is about double that, they are smugly profit taking a small portion of their gains, waiting to rebuy at lower prices, similar to what many of us are doing with housing.
kaching! I think I’m well below $1,000 average cost per ounce.
I’m waiting to buy gold and hope to see huge drops. Got cash?
“whatever became of the members of the gold bug brigade”
Remember? Alad had only a short amount of time to activate his plan and escape.
Gee, Ma, look at all the red numbers!
Luckily for all the Realtards® on the planet, there is no chance the continued weakness on Wall Street could ever spill over into U.S. housing.
June 28, 2012, 12:18 p.m. EDT
J.P. Morgan slides, while Barclays tumbles
By Wallace Witkowski and Greg Morcroft, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Shares of several banks fell Thursday morning after a report stated internal sources at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. had revealed that losses from a soured derivatives position could reach $9 billion under the most adverse scenario.
The New York Times reported Thursday that J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM -4.30%) has already exited more than half of the soured position, having previously stated that it aimed to clear the position by early 2013. Read more about the genesis of J.P. Morgan’s problem.
Wednesday’s news that Barclays PLC (BCS -15.41%) had settled a probe into its reporting of certain data used to set key interest rates also weighed on the sector.
British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said Thursday that four more global banks were being investigated in a probe into alleged manipulation of global benchmark interest rates, the Associated Press reported.
According to the report, Osborne said Citigroup Inc. (C -3.60% ), UBS AG (UBS -3.74%, CH:UBSN -2.81%), HSBC Holdings (PLC UK:HSBA -2.58% HBC -3.14%) and Royal Bank of Scotland Group (PLC UK:RBS -11.45% RBS -12.28%) were being probed for attempting to manipulate the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, which forms the basis for hundreds of trillions of dollars’ worth of transactions.
Shares of Citigroup fell 3.4%, UBS dropped 2.8%, and HSBC shed 3.1%, and Royal Bank of Scotland plummeted more than 11%.
As Barclays said it would pay around $452 million in penalties to settle a probe into attempted manipulation and false reporting, Chief Executive Bob Diamond, along with three other top bank executives, agreed to give up bonuses this year, citing their “collective responsibility as leaders.” Diamond said that Barclays’ past actions “fell well short” of its standards. Read more about Barclays big payout in the face of misconduct probe.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC -2.13%) shares dropped 2.1%, Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC -2.31%) shares lost 2.4%, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS -1.10%) shares fell 1.2%, and Morgan Stanley’s (MS -1.64%) were off 2%.
Barclays agreed to pay $453 million in fines after admitting that traders and executives tried to manipulate benchmark interest rates tied to loans and contracts around the world.
Among shares of European banks trading in the U.S., Barclays (BCS -15.41%) fell more than 15% and Deutsche Bank’s (DB -5.27%) fell 5.2%.
The Financial Select Sector (SPDR ETF XLF -1.40%), which tracks the financial stocks in the S&P 500 (SPX -1.01%), shed 1.5%. And, the KBW Bank Index (ETF BKX -1.92%), which tracks 24 of the largest U.S. banks, shed 2%.
Concern is also rising for sector investors over the industry’s second-quarter earnings, due to be reported over the next several weeks.
“With the revenue environment remaining challenged and profitability under pressure, we expect investors to remain keenly focused on the progress each bank is making against its previously announced expense initiatives,” analysts at Keefe Bruyette & Woods wrote to clients in a Wednesday research note.
“While expense levels in the first quarter were mixed, we expect to see better expense trends in the second quarter, although some of this will likely relate to more favorable seasonality in compensation expense. Nevertheless, if the banks can manage to show some progress on the margin front we think that would be a short-term positive for the stocks.”
…
Luckily for all the Realtards® on the planet, there is no chance the continued weakness on Wall Street could ever spill over into U.S. housing.
I blame the tech bubble bursting and 9/11 on the surge in money chasing housing appreciation return almost as much as I blame the Fed’s interest rate policy and the government subsidies, tax credits, and support for housing.
Boomers especially, felt that housing was a better investment after the market dropped in 2001-2002… money is always chasing a return somewhere.
The real information in this article lies in that the writer seriously entertains the suggestion given in the headline.
June 28, 2012, 12:02 a.m. EDT
Sell everything
Bill Gunderson is a San Diego money manager, financial talk show host, creator of the Best Stocks Now app and editor of the Gunderson Report. He has been featured in — or a guest on — several national financial news sites, including Fox Business, Bloomberg, Barron’s, Fortune, Forbes, and others. He can be reached at bill@pwstreet.com. (pwstreet.com)
By Bill Gunderson
During times of volatility in the market, it never fails — my more high-strung clients will call and instruct me to “sell everything!” They usually represent about 1%-2% of my overall clientele.
They are usually out of breath when they place the call, or they leave a message on my phone late Sunday evening when the markets are closed.
Is it smart to sell everything during times of volatility?
…
I just want everyone to know that I am really proud of you all today. I thought there would be much more bloodletting and gnashing of the teeth with respect to the SCOTUS ruling…no matter which way it came down.
I can personally take it or leave it considering everything else that has/is/been going on.
I like to approach this blog as a community. I’ve met a couple of you face-to-face and have had phone conversations with others.
I keep thinking that, one of these days, there will be an HBB meetup here in Tucson, or I’ll make it to one in some other city. In any event, let’s all greet each other enthusiastically.
It’s been one heckuva ride for the past six years.
I thought there would be much more bloodletting and gnashing of the teeth with respect to the SCOTUS ruling…no matter which way it came down.
To be perfectly honest I haven’t read much about it, and I am going to wait for the condensed version in The Economist. However, I have a gut-feeling that it will likely cost me more to support my family’s health-care needs.
I too. I pay for my own insurance outside my company because it’s cheaper. I am anticipating the government will require me to buy insurance through my staffing company because they won’t want to see proof that I pay my monthly premium on my own.
Crag it, michael. What do you know? This decision is just as bad as all the other senility symptoms shown by these people.
Next comes Bloomberg’s ban on super sized sodas all through the U.S. Then a ban on cigarettes, a ban on fast food. Because we gotta keep the costs of insurance contained you see? Then a ban on single people - forced marriage because we need more kids in “skool.” Then we will see forced purchases of homes at gunpoint - ye get ye a 30 year mogage or Ah’ll shoot ya!”
The road to serfdom just started its downhill stretch. The pace is getting faster.
Why does the Supreme Court have to make senile decisions? They will soon impose a $150,000 tax against any family that does not buy a house.
the overreaching tax authority horses left that barn a long time ago.
In a round about way there is a tax on not buying a house through the mortgage deduction. It’s not as black and white as Obamacare, but not that far off. Take 2 people one rents for $2000/month one pays $2000/month to a mortgage company. They both earn the same income. The guy with the mortgage pays less tax than the renter as he can deduct his interest and property taxes.
It’s not a full apples to apples comparison of course, but in general, all else being equal the renter pays a tax penalty for not buying.
The effective home ownership tax deduction is limited to the taxes saved on the increase (if any) in the excess of the homeowner’s deductions over the standard deduction. For instance, a homeowner whose interest and tax payments are small enough might not even have enough interest and tax deductions to exceed the standard deduction; the MID saves this individual nothing.
The largest beneficiaries of the MID are 1%ers with supersized mortgages (and housing-related deductions).
Yup, yet another area where Mr Public is misled because he can’t do simple math. However, Smithers point is still valid. The government already subsidies and/or penalizes the purchase of lots of things. Health insurance is just another item on a long list. Heck most health care is tax deductible so there is already a massive subsidy for that industry. Not to mention many hospitals are non-profit!
Here’s to hoping Slitherin’s favorite party gets elected into the WH and promptly ends the MID.
Romney tax plan would likely spell end of mortgage deduction, says Bowles
Lowering of all tax brackets will require more than just eliminating tax breaks for the rich
June 20, 2012 11:53 am ET
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s plan to reduce tax rates would need to be financed by ending widely used benefits such as the mortgage interest deduction, said Erskine Bowles, who was co-chairman of President Barack Obama’s deficit-reduction commission.
…
I refuse to pay that tax. I will keep my economy car so I won’t have to pay a luxury car tax. I will refuse to buy a house, fearing my state will raise property taxes when I become underwater with a mortgage.
Materialism. The new slavery. The government wants us all to marry, reproduce, buy stucco boxes (right Get Stucco?), and become willing sheep.
I want to be Neo of the Matrix.
“They will soon impose a $150,000 tax against any family that does not buy a house.”
Just buy one of those $1 houses in Detroit. Problem solved
“Just buy one of those $1 houses in Detroit. Problem solved”
I thought they bull-dozed all the $1 houses in Detroit. Along with the $100 houses and $500 houses and the $1000 houses etc.
PS
I think you are wrong about the Bronco fans being disappointed this year with Peyton.
“Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-06-27 15:46:15
Does anyone have an inkling of how much moolah Barclays raked in from the LIBOR price fixing exercise? Whatever the figure is, I’m guessing it is a lot more than $450m it cost them to end the probe.
So long as the rewards of financial crime far exceed the penalties, I expect it to continue to rage out of control.”
I’m happy to see the Financial Times writers are reading my posts. Reciprocation in the blogosphere is a beautiful thing!
ft dot com
June 28, 2012 7:33 pm
Libor firestorm engulfs Diamond
By George Parker and Brooke Masters in London
Bob Diamond, chief executive of Barclays, was engulfed in a political firestorm on Thursday following revelations of his bank’s attempts to rig market interest rates for financial gain, sending shares in Britain’s biggest bank down almost 16 per cent.
The fierce political reaction followed Barclays’ decision to pay fines of $450m to settle investigations by regulators in the US and UK into attempted manipulation by banks around the world of the London interbank offered rate, which is used to set the price of everything from home loans to credit card fees.
“People have to take responsibility for their actions and show how they’re going to be accountable for those actions,” David Cameron, prime minister, said after his chancellor, George Osborne, had questioned in parliament what the Barclays boss knew, and when. “It’s very important that goes all the way to the top of the organisation.”
…
i bet not one person has gone to jail either.
Sounds like a $450M payment was all it cost to pay off the investigators. I would love to see any evidence on how much money they made off manipulating LIBOR. I’m guessing it was way up in the billions, but that is pure conjecture at this point.
In this video, Margaret “horseface” Kelly….. “CEO” of Remax, Federal Reserve operative and one of the most egregious liars in the used house biz, states in 2007 that “price appreciation is guaranteed”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD2_NmPevVs
How many lives were destroyed because of her lies?
My favorite all time youtube sign of the times bubble monument:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3lQtBzq7CdI
That’s fug’n disgusting!
Ugh, is that Kendra Todd?
Where is Slitherin today? I want to continue the discussion on the death of U.S. housing demand as we knew it.
College grads and their families learn to live together
By Emanuella Grinberg, CNN
updated 4:30 PM EDT, Wed June 27, 2012
(CNN) — Lauren Ramsdell had a year to kill in between finishing college in May and getting married next year. So she decided to move back in with her parents.
It made the most sense, the 21-year-old graduate of Elon University in North Carolina said. She had no immediate job prospects and with a wedding coming up, she wanted to save money while looking for a job and plotting her next step.
Plus, she missed her parents and her hometown of Raleigh, and “I don’t think there’s any shame in that,” she said.
“Just because you move home doesn’t mean you’ve failed,” said Ramsdell, who has a degree in journalism and art history. “There used to be a logical progression: college, job, move on with life. But that’s not happening anymore.”
More than half of college graduates move back home, sociologist Katherine Newman wrote in her book, “The Accordion Family: Boomerang Kids, Anxious Parents, and the Private Toll of Global Competition,” based on surveys conducted worldwide.
And many of them are finding it isn’t as painful as it sounds, she said. By setting ground rules and establishing expectations on both sides, parents and their adult children are learning to live together.
“People anticipate it will be more complicated than it turns out to be,” said Newman, dean of the Zanvyl Krieger School of Arts and Sciences at Johns Hopkins University. “It’s remarkably smooth for most families.”
Perhaps that’s because it’s such a common phenomenon. A Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. census data found that the share of Americans living in multigenerational households is at its highest level since the 1950s.
…
I’ve got neighbours that have 3 generations under one roof, being relatively young grandparents, young parents and a few kids under the age of 6. I suspect that situation will remain, in fact I hope it does as the bubble has only started deflating in my area.
Inter-generational household consolidation is a proverbial silver bullet through the heart of the bubble.
Robert Toll predicted this would happen (e.g. adult children living in their parents’ basement), but he seems to have missed the implication of a collapse in demand for his industry’s product.
Yeah, he assumed it was so they could save up the million bucks needed for a future Toll starter home…
“Goodnight granpa,” “Goodnight Monkeyface,” “Goodnight smellyFarts” “goodnight largeMellons,” “Goodnight SourFace,” “Goodnight BubbaButt”
London loophole
New York congressman Gregory Meeks, said he “kept hearing about a London loophole” and said many bankers he had spoken to had threatened to move business from the US to Britain because the regulatory regime was seen as more favourable.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9342767/US-politicians-attack-London-loophole-as-JP-Morgan-boss-explains-2bn-loss.html
Any guesses as to who commenter ConstructionEng is? LOL.
Best cities to buy rental properties
I’m not sure I’d want to buy a rental property in any of those cities.
ha, ha, it’s hard to miss the message or the depth of analysis.
“Analysis” huh? That means to obfuscate and detract from the fundamental issue of inflated prices.
Nice try though.
Haven’t you noticed that most people on this blog actually discuss stuff? Offer insights? There are two primary characteristics of people that post here; realistic on housing (which is net bearish) and enjoy good discussion. Most of what you post is as superficial as the old Realtor mantra of “buy now because housing prices are going up.” All you’ve done is reverse it.
I agree that in the vast majority of markets prices are inflated, but it’s interesting to discuss how inflated, and what are the factors that are keeping prices high and factors that will lead to falling prices. You should try it.
I have no problem discussing details but when the pimping gets in the way of the discussing, the gloves come off.
There’s been a marked change in the nuance and messaging on the blog in the last 90 days and it’s not conducive to the discussion.
You can join us, or ignore us. I’m indifferent.
What pimping? I haven’t seen anyone suggesting that it’s time for everyone to start buying. No one has been passing out business cards. Some people have bought, but they’ve had personal reasons for it. Attacking them isn’t conducive to the discussion, nor is constantly repeating the same thing without backing it up. Insults are certainly not conducive.
Do you know what the different nuance is? The housing situation has changed. Markets have stopped the all out tumble. Some are still falling fast, others have slowed, some have started going up. Putting forth an opinion on why some markets are seeing price increases isn’t a sin to the best of my knowledge. Even considering acting on it. I’d love to hear stories a few years from now on how things have worked out, for better or worse. I’m concerned your ‘gloves off’ attitude will drive people away and we’ll lose out on their commentary.
The housing situation has changed.
And we fundamentally disagree this. Why? Because it hasn’t changed. The massive inventory is still there, the demand is still at 15 year lows and falling. These are truths that you can choose to reject at your own peril.
You see what you did there. You stated your beliefs and warned me that I need to believe you. That’s it. Not much discussion there.
How about this. The housing situation is always changing. There appears to be less inventory for sale and more demand for it than previously, but mostly from investors and a few buyer testing the waters (we even have some here on the blog). The jobs and wages situation suggests that the pool of buyers isn’t very deep, and the younger the worse.
Shadow inventory is still a factor, but could vary considerably from market to market. How much overbuilding happened during the run up, and how much of that was offset in the last few years of reduced building?
Likewise, I think it’s important to know what the investors plan to do with that inventory. Are they going to flood the rental market? Or are they coming back up for sale? How much of this is happening in Detroit or New York or LA?
Are interest rates going to finally go up? If they do, it’ll put a tremendous amount of downward pressure on prices. Not only will individuals be less able to buy, but the hot money could flow away from housing and into other investments. Due to massive government debt, you can bet they will do everything in their power to keep rates low, but at what point do the bond markets reject this?
Heck, the flow of hot money into housing could continue and pull demand from government bonds. We could see a run up that none of us would ever expect, but it would be garaunteed to be followed by a spectacular crash as rates are forced to rise. That would be a terrible and yet fascinating dynamic.
In case you didn’t guess, I have no intention in investing in realestate. Way too risky. But I’m keeping my paid for house because I like it, and it could come in handy in the future as shelter.
“I have no problem discussing details but when the pimping gets in the way of the discussing, the gloves come off.”
Yo’ my brother of another mother! I care not for pimping of houses or political parties, and will call out all scumbag housing or political pimps who post here.
“Do you know what the different nuance is? The housing situation has changed. Markets have stopped the all out tumble.”
Do you remember the moment in the old Roadrunner cartoons when Wily Coyote oversteps the edge of the cliff?
If so, kindly remind me what happens next.
You stated your beliefs
They’re not my “beliefs”, it’s the truth. Housing sales are at 1997 levels. The inventory has been there all along. It’s immovable. It’s all around you. LOOK.
BTW, analysis can amplify the issue of inflated prices.
Now that’s hilarious. How many sites is he posting dozens and dozens of comments on every day? Apparently there isn’t much construction engineering work out there? So he’s on multiple sites every day repeating the exact same things over and over and over and over. And if he’s actually successful at convincing people of his view that means there will be even less construction engineering work out there! Now I feel bad about making the mental health joke.
We’re just exposing your lies everywhere you go…. we’ll be there my underwater debtor.
I understand now why people left New Orleans after Katrina and never returned.
I am so sorry.
Down, down, down,…,down, down…
June 28, 2012, 8:18 p.m. EDT
Japan stocks fall, with blue chips leading decline
By Michael Kitchen
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Japan stocks faced selling Friday, with the last day of the quarter weighed by weak Japanese manufacturing data, a strong yen and U.S. share losses overnight. The Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 -0.78% lost 0.7% to 8,816.04, while the broader Topix was down 0.5%. Blue-chip tech and industrial shares took a double hit from overnight gains in the yen — particularly against the euro — and data showing a larger-than-expected 3.1% drop in May’s industrial production. Sony Corp. JP:6758 -2.28% SNE -0.65% traded down 2%, Sharp Corp. JP:6753 -2.23% SHCAF -8.93% fell 2.2%, NEC Corp. JP:6701 -2.44% NIPNF -6.25% lost 2.4%, robot-maker Fanuc Corp. JP:6954 -1.57% FANUF +1.72% shed 0.9%, and industrial-chemical producer Tosoh Corp. JP:4042 -1.89% fell 1.4%. Some financials moved lower as markets remained on edge over the European Union summit, which began Thursday, as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. JP:8306 -0.81% MTU +1.32% fell 0.8%, Aozora Bank Ltd. JP:8304 -2.14% lost 2.1%, Daiwa Securities Group Inc. JP:8601 -1.02% DSECF +8.22% gave up 1%, and Bank of Yokohama Ltd. JP:8332 -1.09% BKJAY +1.79% retreated 1.1%. On the upside, Suzuki Motor Corp. JP:7269 +1.21% SZKMF -2.28% rose 1.4%after a Nikkei news report that it would hike its capital spending by 60% through fiscal 2016.
C’mon out girls…..
——————————————————————
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-06-28 02:02:36
For the Power-Smithers-Rental Team:
The 2005 run up was an anomaly and is never coming back. Did you really think that the demographics of the Phoenix Metro Area could really support 500k starter homes and 300k apartment conversion condos? Please, have you taken a look around? I even see businesses boarding up in “Affluent” Scottsdale.
If you were simply used house salespeople, you would not be on here pushing your agenda, you would be hoping for increased transaction volume, not rising prices and rents. No, you have skin in the game, you have been out there buying or you are clinging to failed investments from yesteryear. Come clean…the truth will set you free.
Aye!
For a big laugh, follow “Captain Bill” on City-Data’s Phoenix site. He apparantly sells houses or buys houses to rent out or flips houses. He advises people on home buying.
City Data is biased toward Real Estate and TOSs anyone who ridicules real estate. I figure it’s the same in each metro area of the U.S.
I even see businesses boarding up in “Affluent” Scottsdale.
I’ve noticed that too.
Zooming out, I’d point to a declining velocity of money, which means asset deflation as these triple-net leases fail. There’s simply too much leverage to unwind. CRE leases in San Jose, CA are roughly 50% of the peak-bubble. Our family has owned outright for thirty-five years, so we’re still doing business under the same shingle; not so for the leveraged syndicates who folded the moment profits turned to losses.
Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.
Op-Ed Columnist
Don’t Look Down
By FRANK BRUNI
Published: June 18, 2012
Somewhere between Nik Wallenda’s first step onto a tightrope over Niagara Falls and Greece’s most recent retreat from the brink, it hit me: teetering needlessly on the precipice of disaster wasn’t just the story of the weekend. It’s the story of our days.
Cliff dwelling has become the modern way of life.
We exist, without always having to, on the edge. Or, rather, on one edge after another, some of our own making, others avoidable if we could just summon the maturity, discipline and will.
As cliff dwellers we deal with nothing until the last possible minute and act in timid, impermanent ways, growing all too accustomed to indecision and a bit too inured to dread. Although we have alternatives — paths, however strenuous, back to safer ground — we neglect them, casting our lots with chance. Maybe a wave comes and takes us. Maybe not, and we can contrive some pleasure as we watch the sunset.
On Sunday our gazes were diverted, once again, toward Greece. Its citizens headed anew to the polls, to cast votes that held the possibility of doom for the euro, whose collapse would wreak economic havoc far and wide. The rest of us did what we’d become practiced at. We held our breaths.
But did it have to come to that? Greece’s limbo underscores Europe’s inability to determine once and for all how much it’s willing to invest in the future of the euro. The Continent’s leaders make micro adjustments in lieu of a macro commitment or big decision of any kind. The suspense sometimes shifts locus — today Greece, tomorrow Spain or Italy — but doesn’t end.
That mirrors the serial uncertainty on the opposite side of the Atlantic, where the United States Congress, inept at so very much, excels at catastrophic scenarios and suffixes. It has mastered the -mageddon.
“Taxmageddon,” as it’s sometimes called on Capitol Hill, is the new biggie, looming early next year. That’s when, in the absence of Congressional action, supposedly temporary tax cuts passed under George W. Bush and extended by President Obama expire as automatic spending reductions agreed to at the end of the debt ceiling showdown (“debtmaggedon”) begin to kick in. The combined force of those developments, according to some projections, would be a $700 billion blow to the economy in 2013 and, as the year progressed, a recession.
…
Don’t Look Down
Down. Nothing like a little EU deadlock to close out the quarter on a somber note.
Asian shares down on EU deadlock, awaiting U.S. reaction
By Chikako Mogi
TOKYO | Thu Jun 28, 2012 8:47pm EDT
(Reuters) - Asian shares and the euro were pressured on Friday as European leaders argued over how to ease borrowing strains in Italy and Spain and stop the euro zone debt crisis spreading, with investors fearful of U.S. reaction to the deadlock.
“Investors are waiting for further developments overnight in Europe and the reaction in Wall Street before making their bets,” said Cho Byung-hyun, an analyst at Tong Yang Securities.
“Trading looks to be quiet as the market braces for what might be a busy Monday.”
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.2 percent, down 9.9 percent on the quarter and on track for its first quarterly loss since end-September.
Japan’s Nikkei average opened down 0.7 percent.
As the first of a two-day EU summit drew to a close on Thursday, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy announced a deal in principle for a 120 billion euro ($149 billion) growth package and moves to boost capital for the EU’s lending arm, the European Investment Bank.
But Italy, Spain and some other countries refused to sign off on the deal until they saw steps to allow euro zone rescue funds to buy their government bonds and support their banks.
“What the markets want to see is more clarity in the scheme to allow the rescue fund to buy Italian and Spanish bonds and progress in a roadmap for banking supervision and deposit insurance scheme,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.
“Markets will remain guarded until there is certainty in these key issues, keeping the euro in ranges with a downside bias,” he said.
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Today’s announcement by the neo-conservative-staffed neo-conservative SCOTUS makes it less attractive to make long term plans for life in the U.S. The road to serfdom is now at an incline and the pace is quickened.
Materialism is looking more and more like a burden when you have to anticipate shopping around for the highest after-tax/after-expenxe income place to be (as a contractor).
Rent forever. Drive an economy car forever. Stay single and childless forever.
Will all of your money to a principled small government polemical think tank.
Final revenge.
I’ll probably repost tomorrow.
Sad true story.
Young colleague of mine, a 37 year old (as of a couple weeks ago) was diagnosed with a terminal illness around a year ago. He had a girlfriend. They went ahead and got married. Well I found out about this the two weeks ago. Anyhow the first message I got was he had 24-48 hours left to live. The next message was a few days later. He passed away. The third message was when I found he got married after his diagnosis.
The wedding picture was in the e-mail chain. He looked dashing and she looked young a beautiful.
I was e-mailed that picture two days ago. I did not know about his bride. It was a sweet / tragic deal. I used to drive to his place on the way to work and pick him up to go to work since we worked at the same place and he did not have a car - when I worked in a mid-Atlantic state.
Life i short. Somehow I listened to a song by The Verve, “Bittersweet Symphony” this afternoon. Then I was thinking about my friend. Tragic and haunting.
I hope the bride knew about the condition. If so, what was in it for her to get married for so short a time?
The brutal truth is that every love story ends in tragedy, whether due to death of a partner, or to disintegration of mutual attraction into disdain. If your friend and his bride were true soul mates, it was probably best that they tied the knot, even if only for one year.
I never had a partner die while I was with her, but I did have a passionate romance in my young years that died an early death. Nonetheless, I deeply treasure the memory of my early love, and our time together. Hopefully your friend’s widow can similarly savor her memories and start her life afresh.
Oh yes she knew about it before they tied the knot. I kid you not, but her first name seems Russian. I don’t want to accuse my late friend of course.
My colleague’s vacation just went up in price overnight!
June 28, 2012, 11:06 p.m. EDT
Euro soars on European Union bank-supervisor plan
By Michael Kitchen
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — The euro rocketed higher early Friday after European Union officials said they are aiming to establish a single financial supervisor for the currency bloc. The euro (EURUSD +1.1104%) jumped almost 2 U.S. cents to $1.2605 from $1.2429 in late North American trade Thursday.
One can always bad news by assuming an improvement is nigh at hand.
June 29, 2012, 1:21 a.m. EDT
Coming China data likely glum but improving
By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — A batch of Chinese economic data due out over the next few weeks will cast new light on the scale of the ongoing economic slowdown, with analysts expecting weak numbers but some improvement.
Kicking off the parade of data is an official manufacturing survey due out Sunday. Some analysts expect China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index to confirm the view that the economy is caught in a deepening slowdown, setting a bearish tone for the later data.
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Meant to say “One can always discount bad news…”
Japan’s Industrial Output Falls Most Since 2011 Quake
By Andy Sharp and Keiko Ujikane - Jun 28, 2012 8:58 PM PT
Japan’s industrial output fell the most since the March 2011 earthquake and consumer prices declined, bolstering the case for extra stimulus to sustain the nation’s economic recovery.
Production declined 3.1 percent in May from April, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo today. A holiday may have played a role and Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley cited post-quake difficulties in seasonal adjustments. Consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent in May from a year earlier.
Weakness in European demand limited automobile output, underscoring the risk to Asia from the region’s crisis as euro- area leaders grapple with limiting the spread of sovereign-debt woes. Production of transportation equipment — including automobiles — slumped 11.1 percent in May, the biggest drag on output overall.
“Today’s report confirmed that production has entered a soft patch,” said Satoshi Osanai, an economist at Daiwa in Tokyo. “A slowdown in global demand, especially in Europe and Asia, may weigh on production.”
The decline in output compared with the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey for a 2.8 percent drop. The government cited weakness in European demand for automobiles. The slide in production was 0.2 percent the previous month.
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