Bits Bucket for July 15, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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“He who pick bottoms have smelly finger” - Ancient Chinese Proverb
From the WSJ - Yea! Home Prices Hitting Bottom. Now, the Bad News.
“This is a great time to buy a home in many parts of the country. There are signs that the downward price spiral is bottoming out. Mortgage rates are at historic lows.
The next few years could well be remembered as the best opportunity for Americans to buy homes since the postwar baby boom.
But one group’s opportunity is another group’s problem. Tens of millions of baby boomers and other home owners have seen their equity shrunken or wiped out completely. Many were counting on their homes to help finance their retirements. Often they have been waiting for years for the market to turn. Now they find themselves on the short end of the deal, sellers into the buyer’s market of the century.”
Great time to buy?
The best opportunity?
Market of the century?
NAR and their media charlatans have said the same thing every year since 2007.
How did that work out for suckers?
It’s a “great time to buy” because “tens of millions of baby boomers and other home owners have seen their equity shrunken or wiped out completely. Many were counting on their homes to help finance their retirements. Often they have been waiting for years for the market to turn.”
These “tens of millions” are going to be sellers when (if) the market turns and this selling will put a lid on the price rise.
Couple the above with this statement: “Mortgage rates are at historic lows.” If mortgage rates are at historic lows then this suggests that they will more-than-likely rise from this point rather than go lower from this point, and rising interest rates will be a killer to rising house prices.
I actually believe that mortgage rates might very well go much much lower than most people think they can.
This is not a strong belief but it’s not out of the question either.
The deflationary forces have very very strong legs, and ironically, all the policies have made it worse not better.
I actually don’t think we’ll ever see high mortgage rates again in our lifetime.. The Fed has backed itself into a corner and there is really no way out..
that is, of course, assuming the dollar does not fall off a cliff…
on second thought, we will see higher mortgage rates in our lifetime..
There will be many offspring of boomers who will be trying to sell their parents’ houses after their parents die or are put in assisted living homes. I did such with my parents’ house and uncle’s house back in 2000, put ‘em up for sale wen I was 41. The reason to sell for loss was to get out from responsibility and to distribute the proceeds to the beneficiaries who wanted a quick sale since they needed the money.
Thousands of boomer offspring need the loot to pay off student loans. I see home ownership as a ball and chain, both for owner and heirs. I was happy to be free of my fiduciary duties. So I see another decade or more of a depression in real estate, notwithstanding the dead cat bounce in areas already hit hard.
Or Bill…. Maybe some of the kids might need a very cheap place to live and will pay off the loans monthly.
But i think the FED is banking on the fact that most will sell the house and be responsible and use the windfall to pay off the loans
But what if lots of people say F* it….i’m buying a new car, new computer, new big screen, the student loan can wait till i die…then what?
I heard the bottoms these days come laced with flowers and expensive perfumes.
Boomer offspring need to pay off college loans and will sell their parents’ homes after the parents are put in assisted living homes or pass away. Been there, done that. More homes to flood the market. A Chinese laundry.
Exactly. There are 78 million baby boomers, and every last one of them will have to sell their house in the next 20 years. If they don’t, the kids will.
I find the media articles funny - boomers have been counting on retiring “on the house” and many haven’t saved much cash outside of their homes. That’s one reason why I think the govt is desperate to get the market going, so they can sell out into a “fair price” market and not feel like they got the shaft. The next generation will be left holding the bag, however.
WSJ is really stretching here, calling the bottom it seems every week. We may be there, but I disagree about the market of the century. That will be when there is mass fear and blood in the streets - the fear component has never been there yet, as too many see this correction as a temporary phenomenon instead of a structural shift in the market.
As I recall a Ritholz article, an additional 35 million additional houses hitting the market as boomers vacate them. This is in addition to the estimated 20 million housing units currently empty.
The important thing is that, by and large, we should ignore everyone between 35-50 in age for our analysis. Why? Because they are already occupying homes. The important thing is that the Gen Y, 76 million strong, doesn’t have enough households, cash, or one could argue, desire to buy the homes being vacated by boomers. PLus, if you believe that the era of a primary + secondary residence is over, which I believe it is due to a number of causes, the actual demand for homes is significantly weaker than what it is now.
Demand.
Check out current housing demand. It’s at 15 year lows/1997 levels. Combined with the massive excess supply built from 2000-2008(and they’re still building) and there is nothing but dramatically lower prices for years and decades to come. This is bullish optimism. Not doom. Dramatically lower prices of any commodity is a positive in a very big way.
Dramatically lower prices of any commodity is a positive in a very big way.
true.
“Exactly. There are 78 million baby boomers, and every last one of them will have to sell their house in the next 20 years. If they don’t, the kids will.”
I hope this is sarcasm. At 56 i’m in the middle of the boom and hope I’ll last past 76. No reason to sell my home - it’s one story and level with the road. I like the phrase toetag home.
Besides - it’s not for sale at any price - too much sentimental attachment. Besides, I’ve spent too much time fighting threats of eminent domain to sell for something as crass as filthy lucre.
Great time to buy?
The best opportunity?
Market of the century?
Ummm…no. Houses are STILL way too expensive.
…and wages way too low.
So if you had to wager, do you believe wages are going to triple to meet inflated housing prices?
…or….
Do you think prices will fall by half or more to meet wages?
I know which is the safe bet.
I applied for FEMA disaster assistance this morning.
I’m glad we had the opportunity to experience coastal flooding as renters before committing long-term to “beach living.”
Not worth it.
Muggy
Haven’t been around here much lately.
What happened in a Reader’s Digest format?
(Assuming the Mrs and the kids are OK.)
Hope your OK Muggy .
All is well now. We had a harrowing two hours on Sunday, June 24th. The water from Debby combined with high tide and or neighborhood flooded.
The flooding went back and forth with the tides for three days. We lost a few things and had some water damage, but nothing serious.
DBA Muggy
Good to hear your family is OK.
I heard about Debby on the radio.
(We don’t own a teevee.)
That experience is one of those
etched in your memory for life
experiences. Glad you’re all OK.
I applied for FEMA disaster assistance this morning.
Big gov socialism has its attractions. Even the rugged individualists will line up for it after a disaster. (Not saying that’s you, Muggy.)
Lol, I know, man.
Gov. Scott should ask FEMA to exclude Tampa Area TEA members from assistance. I’d hate to see the feds
helptread on them. Living in vans down by the river (even when it floods) = FREEEEEEDOMMM!!Just so we’re clear, I’d say I’m pretty close to outing myself as a flaming Democrat (I guess I like Left-Libertarianism, too) — I just can’t wrap my brain around letting people suffer while others stock piles of cash from a system they’ve rigged.
Note: I’m not opposed to wealth, even extreme wealth, but it’s got to be a level playing field, and their needs to be a floor for the bottom. What’s wrong with that?
Can’t we all get along?
For those who are really trying to make their lives better….
I mean if you go to a food panty stinkin of weed…you should be turned away.
——-and their needs to be a floor for the bottom
What if someone smoked them up for free?
Even Richard Nixon proposed everyone should be guaranteed income
http://www.nytimes.com/books/98/10/04/specials/moynihan-income.html
I didn’t say guaranteed income, but I’ll say guaranteed food, even if your friend gave you some weed.
but I’ll say guaranteed food, even if your friend gave you some weed.
That’s when you really need it.
Fair enough, so why do we pay farmers not to plant…?
Why do so many businesses throw away good food …because they don’t want t be sued in case 1 freakin strawberry out of 50 boxes has mold on it
From the UK Guardian - Born poor? Bad luck, you have won last prize in the lottery of life:
“The economic and social crises are merging. The protracted “contained” depression is making life ever harder and disillusioning for those, and their children, trapped at the bottom – while making those at the top ever more robust about looking after themselves and their own. A mean world growing still meaner fosters division and mutual suspicion.
As a result, the arteries in American society are hardening. Social mobility is in decline, but, worse, the general drop in trust observable in all social classes is most marked among the poorest third of Americans. Nor should it be any surprise that they are “cynical and even paranoid”, writes Putnam: it is a rational response to their situation. Every institution that might be expected to alleviate their plight – family, school, voluntary organisations and church – has become dysfunctional.
Meanwhile, the rich, dealing themselves out of society’s institutions into ever stronger and sealed ghettoes of their own, become ever more ignorant of the world around them even while they ensure their off-spring scoop life’s prizes.
There are parallels in Britain. The rise of rightwing individualism and an accompanying celebration of the private and distrust of the public, is undermining the diversity and strength of our social institutions. The much vaunted flexible labour market – code for a world in which its principle institution, the trade union, is enfeebled and workers are treated as commodities – is a mortal threat to the cohesion of the working-class family and its chances of being a platform for aspiration and mobility.
Yet it is this bad capitalism – and the socially immobile society that accompanies it – that has brought the British economy to its knees. A regular visitor to No 10 tells me wryly that the reason the government has lost the competence gene is that almost everyone he meets is an ex-public school boy like him. There is too little social diversity and knowledge of broader Britain: they are locked in bad capitalism along with the social constructs and attitudes that created it. They cannot know what to do because the correct policies go against their every Tory instinct.
In this debate Thatcherite Toryism has nothing to offer. A socially mobile, economically dynamic country will spring from different philosophic and political roots – more liberal, more Whiggish and more social democratic. Thatcherite Toryism, with nothing to offer the country but euroscepticism and jingoism, is about to enter a period of long decline.”
…as I was saying.
Good morning, everyone. Coffee is on.
Boooooo Coffe.
Tea is on.
My second cup of Peets before my one hour flight back to the left coast.
So, Bill in LA, when are we going to do our meet up?
Actually, combo, I just realized last week that you were in CA.
For some reason, I always thought of you as being a Chicago guy. I even had you pegged as living near Rogers Park.
I wonder why. Something you said or something I misunderestimated?
Yeah, dudes….
To accommodate HBBers from San Diego I think meeting around DAna Point would be a good thing on a Saturday around 11:00.
Cantankerous is in SD.
I am fine for the next two Saturdays. I am on Phoenix on weekend of August 3 though.
Bill, which flight are you on today? We might be on the same flight, could have an interesting discussion in the airport.
I just got in and did not see your message. Sorry! airplane mode the last 90 minutes
And you can enjoy an afternoon or evening cup or glass of your favorite drink as I return to the airwaves on KXCI. Today, it’s a one-hour Jazz Women! special. Featuring names you know. And names worth getting to know.
Tune me in, 5 p.m. MST or 8 p.m. EDT, on the KXCI web stream.
Slim check out my friend Lola Love doing real zydeco and southern soul blues 1230-300 pst today see the difference in music..
http://kzsu.stanford.edu/
Thoroughly cleaned my coffee maker this morning and the coffee was extra good.
Europe’s lessons for the U.S.
“Using debt that you have no plan to repay in order to pay other debts that you can’t repay doesn’t work with mortgages and will not work with governments.”
http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/europe-363669-free-people.html
When government controls most of the economy (hence occupations), it is not hypocritical to drive on government roads, earn some or all of your income from government either.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/rothbard/rothbard63.html
…while agitating for libertarianism.
It is not immoral to use government services or work for the government while you are a radical libertarian.
It is not immoral to use government services or work for the government while you are a radical libertarian.
I saw that on a bumper sticker in DC.
LOL. Long bumper sticker.
If you expect your libertarian policies to be adopted, it seems short sighted.
If you expect your libertarian policies to not be adopted, are you just tilting at windmills?
Buy today, underwater tomorrow.
The risk is massive, the losses crushing.
more doom and gloom today. what are you trying to prove?
It’s called reality.
maybe your reality but certainly isnt mine.
Your losses are yours and yours alone my lying realtor.
Time will tell. Let’s touch base in 3 yrs.
sounds good. I’m just trying to be positive and looking for things to get better.
“Get better” simply means dramatically lower prices so you’re right. Things are going to “get batter”.
I look for how things are, not better or worse. It’s hard enough to figure out what’s going on without forced pessimism/optimism clouding perception.
My gloom and doom only applies to real estate. I am bullish on large company U.S. Stocks and I think dollar cost averaging into European and Japanese stocks is a great contrarian idea, while building up T-Bills.
In the long run, truth will out, libertarianism will win. Because we each have inalienable individual rights to life, liberty, obtaining property, and pursuing happiness.
“In the long run, truth will out, libertarianism will win. Because we each have inalienable individual rights to life, liberty, obtaining property, and pursuing happiness.”
The law of entropy states that chaos will win. Our individual rights are esconced in a document that is subject to change and interpretation. The document you paraphrase is not even a governing document, but a statement of intent. Obtaining property is not one of the inalianable rights mentioned. And protection of property rights is subject to due process in the 14th amendment.
Inevitably, your rights must be balanced against the rights of all others. In some places, you cannot collect water that rains onto your property, because it already belongs to someone else.
Each generation must struggle to maintain these inalienable rights. I would think that oligarchy is more likely than libertarianism. We are trending in that direction.
I would think that oligarchy is more likely than libertarianism.
Libertarianism is one of the oligarchs’ stalking horses. Look who supports/runs/owns the big libertarian think tanks- the Koch brothers and their ilk.
I agree. These are the two most likely scenarios:
1)Oligarchical control with a very small elite (say, 1 million people in a world with more than 7 billion people — so your chance of being elite is smaller than 2/10ths of 1 percent)
or
2)Libertarianism (i.e., anarchy, a mad max world where there are no institutions). Hobbes thought he was describing a world of the past; little did he know he was actually predicting the future when he wrote:
“Whatsoever therefore is consequent to a time of war, where every man is enemy to every man, the same consequent to the time wherein men live without other security than what their own strength and their own invention shall furnish them withal. In such condition there is no place for industry, because the fruit thereof is uncertain: and consequently no culture of the earth; no navigation, nor use of the commodities that may be imported by sea; no commodious building; no instruments of moving and removing such things as require much force; no knowledge of the face of the earth; no account of time; no arts; no letters; no society; and which is worst of all, continual fear, and danger of violent death; and the life of man, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short. “
Because libertarianism worked so well in the 19th century, didn’t it?
Libertarianism worked well from the 7th century to 17th century in Ireland.
Murray Rothbard was some kind of villain you slobs say? I did not know he was a corporate raider. Nor Frederich Hayek, Ed Clark, Ron Paul, Harry Browne, or Karl Hess. How about Nozick? David Friedman?
You nuts keep bringing up folks like the Koch brothers. Libertarianism was a philosophy long before them. Bastiat and Spooner were also major players in the philosophy.
Yet you point to some corporation. That clearly shows your ignorance. Peanut gallery members go back.
So who is bankrolling Gary Johnson? Who financed Ed Clark’s (1980) campaign, or Andre Moreau’s? Do you filthy little statists even know who Andre Moreau is? I did not think so. Makes my point. Your “powers that be” do not finance the libertarian movement. It did not finance the libertarian movement that became the United States either.
Go back and learn history flunkees.
“Libertarianism worked well from the 7th century to 17th century in Ireland.”
From wikipedia:
“Ireland continued as a patchwork of rival tribes but, beginning in the 7th century AD, a concept of national kingship gradually became articulated through the concept of a High King of Ireland. Medieval Irish literature portrays an almost unbroken sequence of High Kings stretching back thousands of years but modern historians believe the scheme was constructed in the 8th century to justify the status of powerful political groupings by projecting the origins of their rule into the remote past.[22]
The High King was said to preside over the patchwork of provincial kingdoms that together formed Ireland. Each of these kingdoms had their own kings but were at least nominally subject to the High King. The High King was drawn from the ranks of the provincial kings and ruled also the royal kingdom of Meath, with a ceremonial capital at the Hill of Tara. The concept only became a political reality in the Viking Age and even then was not a consistent one.[23] However, Ireland did have a unifying rule of law: the early written judicial system, the Brehon Laws, administered by a professional class of jurists known as the brehons.[24]“
Monarchy is libertarian?
“From the 9th century, waves of Viking raiders plundered Irish monasteries and towns.[31] These raids added to a pattern of raiding and endemic warfare that was already deep-seated in Ireland.”
Sounds like real peaceful times.
“In 1172, the new pope, Alexander III, further encouraged Henry to advance the integration of the Irish Church with Rome. Henry was authorised to impose a tithe of one penny per hearth as an annual contribution. This church levy, called Peter’s Pence, is still extant in Ireland as a voluntary donation. In turn, Henry accepted the title of Lord of Ireland which Henry conferred on his younger son, John Lackland, in 1185. This defined the Irish state as the Lordship of Ireland. When Henry’s successor died unexpectedly in 1199, John inherited the crown of England and retained the Lordship of Ireland.
Over the century that followed, Norman feudal law gradually replaced the Gaelic Brehon Law so that by the late 13th century the Norman-Irish had established a feudal system throughout much of Ireland. “
Feudalism is libertarian?
In Lew Rockwellworld, facts are subservient to ideology and history is rendered a mere inconvenience.
Dramatically lower housing prices is bullish optimism.
Pick yourself up of the floor my lying realtor.
now that is hilarious. So is anyone trying to be positive an evil realtor?
That’s hilarious. Positive means crushing unaffordable prices?
Nice try liar.
“So is anyone trying to be positive an evil realtor?”
Artificial rises in house prices are not positive when you have stagnant or declining incomes and anemic economic growth.
If the prices of starter homes get forced up to 500k due to artificially low interest rates and 520 FICO FHA loans, how can that be good for our economy? How can that be positive for 20 and 30 somethings starting families and working 40k/year jobs?
Please tell us.
Crickets.
You said it for me Nick.
Hey all,
I posed this question on Thursday–we are looking at only the most prime areas, IE Tribeca, Soho, West Village for something to stay in for the next 5 to 10 years. If anyone has any more thoughts, would appreciate their wisdom:
Comment by John
2012-07-11 07:59:48
Hey guys,
Would love some impartial advice here. Been reading the site for many years.
I live in Manhattan with my wife and young child. We have been renting and watching the market closely, as it hasn’t moved much since 2008 other than the high end.
The problem is rents. Rents are skyrocketing–literally 20 percent in the past 12 months. I’m not sure who can afford to sign these leases, but in my building, I have watched apartments go from $3500 for a one bedroom to $4200 over the course of one year.
I’m thinking of buying, not because I think it’s a good investment, but because I’d like some cost certainty. Right now I’m at the whim of my landlord.
Has anyone been in this position? Any helpful thoughts on how to deal with this market?
“Has anyone been in this position? Any helpful thoughts on how to deal with this market?”
I was in this position in 2010 and it took about 2 years to pass. It sucks, but I am *really* glad I did not buy. How old is your child, and what factor do schools play? My house decision (address) is for my kids, not me, so I am biased in this regard.
A couple of months can really warp your sense of time… where has the market been in the last four years and where is it headed? You have to think of the crossover from
Bubble
Extend and Pretend
Default
Extend and Pretend
Default
Extend and Pretend
Default
Extend and Pretend
Default
Extend and Pretend
It could go on for a while. Can you stay sane? I’ll probably have to buy a house to keep my wife happy.
There, I said it.
I posted my views on the subject yesterday. No need to repeat.
Check yesterday’s discussion. There were few observations from people currently living in Manhattan. Not sure about the specific areas you mentioned.
“I have watched apartments go from $3500 for a one bedroom to $4200 over the course of a year.”
This is truly amazing but is it sustainable?
If an apartment goes vacant does it get rented right away? If it sits vacant for a while then it is sending out a message.
Seven apartments vacant are screaming in my building alone. And that’s just this month!
All for families so relatively large-ish.
More to come, I’m sure of it!
My WAG as to what is happening:
1. There is a LOT of OPM out there in the land that is looking for a decent return, and …
2. There are a LOT of money managers out there in the land look for some OPM to manage, and …
3. There are some nifty computer programs that can draw some nifty charts (and can draw some nifty conclusions) if the right numbers are plugged in.
Combine 1, 2, and 3 and - presto - you get a lot of OPM flowing into areas by money managers directed by the computer.
This may not make much sense in a real-world sense but it may make a lot a sense in a spreadsheet-world sense.
My landlord wouldn’t know a computer from a hole in the ground.
It’s quite ol’-fashioned greed. Squeeze because you can. Won’t work, of course, as he’s finding out quite brutally.
Did I mention he’s being sued by the super that got fired for no particular good reason?
I know RE investors from the boom days who calculated the value of rental properties from projected rents - not actual rents, projected rents.
A piece of property can have its value enhanced quite nicely if the projected rents are used rather than actual rents. The only wee and slight bump-in-the-road-to-riches is convincing the tenants to go with the projected rent.
But if the money used is not one’s own money but Somebody Else’s money (as in OPM) then the tenants aren’t the ones that need to to be sold on the wonders of Projected Rent, it’s the INVESTORS that need to be sold on the wonders of Projected Rent.
Heh…”Projected” rent. Actual or projected(lying to yourself), is a loss and current inflated asking prices of resale housing.
From the boom days? This is still going on. Hence, the large number of mom-and-pop speculators who pencil out a nice 10% yield on a depreciating asset. It all depends on your POV, I do believe we are overbuilt in general in this country and the lack of building won’t affect the supply in the future, and rising rents are a temporary problem and soon to reverse.
“From the boom days? This is still going on.”
It ended badly then and it will probably end badly again.
But not quite yet; There is still a lot of OPM that is desperately looking for a high return, and a lot of this desperate money is destined to be fed into The Machine.
I still wonder how insurance companies and other financial entities will satisfy their requirements for hefty returns in this less-than-hefty-return world.
i.e An insurance annuity that promises to pay out eight percent per year will do this how?
i.e An insurance annuity that promises to pay out eight percent per year will do this how?
By lending the money out at usurious CC rates?
“I do believe we are overbuilt in general in this
countryworld and the lack of building won’t affect the supply in the future, and rising rents are a temporary problem and soon to reverse.”“I still wonder how insurance companies and other financial entities will satisfy their requirements for hefty returns in this less-than-hefty-return world.”
That is the $36 TRILLION derivative question.
Oops, meant ~$600 TRILLION.
Or maybe that $1.2 QUADDRILLION?
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2010/06/09/risk-quadrillion-derivatives-market-gdp/
What’s the old saying? “This will NOT end well.”
You should have bought this while you had the chance….lots of potential for rental income..Tribeca great location even a legal curb cut for a garage.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/468374-townhouse-10-hubert-street-tribeca-new-york
OK, folks, I’m off with friends to the Indonesian Food Bazaar in Queens.
They do it once a month in summer, and the money all goes to charity so you can pig out and feel good at the same time.
It’s a lot of fun, and tons of goodies to purchase. Fun times.
If I were in NYC instead on the radio today, I would SO be going to the Indonesian Food Bazaar.
But, hey, I danced up a storm at last night’s 2nd Saturdays Downtown. Roll Acosta even had kids up on the stage, dancing as they were playing.
Good times, good times.
I ♥ this Bazaar!
There’s a real sense of community. They remember me from before and remember to make my soup exactly as I like it - spicy, and mild for my friend. Then they tease him, “He hasn’t taught you to like spicy food yet. Maybe by next month.”
There’s another grandma who’s like this masterful fryer. There is frying and then there is “frying”. She knows her stuff!
And they are master salesmen. Manipulative in a cheeky kinda way. One grandma pitched, “You don’t love me any more? You don’t want my food?”
So, of course, you get some more.
Emotional blackmailers, par excellence. LOL
Heaven forbid any of them became realtors. They could sell anything to anybody.
Dude… you’re bizarre.
Hey, AZSlim,
Went to a Sophie Hawkins concert at Yoshi’s in SF last night. She seemed to channel Janis Joplin for the second half of the show, but closed with Damn, I Wish I Was Your Lover. It was a blast.
Wondered would she make your show, or too something other than jazz?
IAT
Enjoy the Nasi Gorang.
Bagus!
My favorite food in Bali was sold in wax paper wraps off the back of bikes. Tiny bit of meat with grean beans and nuts over rice. Add teriyaki and red chili. All the street cooking was better than the restaurants because you got to see the “kitchen” and they had to start with fresh ingredients every day. Other places, even fancier restauants, and you were subject to Bali Belly. On the beach, I got the local price of 500 rupia(?), equivalent to 25cents.
Bintang was the beer, Arak attack was if you wanted to be totally wasted on the local mash, and the Sari Club was where to party and meet international travelling girls and guys. Mushie milkshakes could put things in a different light if you were of that volition. And epic massages for 2 bucks.
The Sorry club was blown to smithereens a couple years after I was there.
I had the Bakso Tahu (soup with meatballs and tofu with noodles.) Topped with fried garlic and extra chilli paste.
A bunch fried stuff - corn fritters with shrimp, fried cassava, stuffed rice ball fritters with chicken.
To be taken home - all kinds of krupuk (fried crackers - these people are geniuses!), some gado gado - salad with spicy peanut dressing (which will be a nice summery supper.)
My friends had the sweet drinks. I skipped that. Also some grilled meats which I had a few bites of. One friend also had the rice with the fried chicken and greens in coconut milk.
General awesomeness and hijinks.
(And I agree on the street food being safer. I’ve traveled all over and I eat on the street all the time. I’ve yet to fall ill but you must obey a few rules though.)
Puss’s few rules of street-eating include?:
[1] Fried is better than boiled. Not obvious but true actually.
[2] Bring your own water. No exceptions.
[3] Wipe all glasses before you pour stuff in them. Even for beer, etc.
[4] Some basic common sense rules apply. If you see zillions of people eating somewhere, chances are you should eat there.
[5] Fresh food which has been made right there is better than something that has been sitting for a while. The latter is to be avoided unless you have high-confidence.
Nothing earth-shattering really.
I forgot that grilled is good too. Short version is that freshly made and hot is good.
Stuff that is made in water can be dubious because of water quality unless it’s really piping hot. Even then care is warranted.
Also, wiping all the dishes, spoons, etc. is a good idea because they’ve been washed in the local water. Just like the glasses mentioned above.
The short version is that you need to stay away from the water.
Also, it helps to have locals take you around. They know all the hidden joints. If you’re staying at the hotel, don’t ask them what’s good. Ask them where they would spend their own money. You will get very very different answers to those two questions. You want to go where they would go.
Also, most middle-class houses at this point have Brita (or equivalent.) Or they will boil the water.
I’m not too worried when I go eat at people’s personal houses. I freely just partake of whatever they are eating/drinking. It’s no different than if I were to show up to your house tomorrow.
Your body definitely acclimates. I generally find that ironically, I’ve acclimated a little too well. I’m a little out of sorts when I get back to NYC but NYC is filthy enough and the immune system adjusts one more time.
Oh, one last trick, and this one is a little unusual.
I’ve hired cars to take me around in various places. You really don’t want to drive in a foreign land. When doing so, and you need to stop somewhere for lunch, ask the driver where he would eat. They will always protest saying that the place is not fancy or is too simple or whatever but insist on going where they would go.
Of course, I pick up their tab too and the meals down to the last one have been absolutely excellent. Some were positively mind-blowing. I have dreams about those.
And dirt-cheap!
If there’s one thing that unites people all over the world is having excellent food. Plus, they like you for not being a “snobby” kind and all kinds of intangible goodwill accrues.
Life is a banquet, and most poor suckers are starving to death.
Cat…..
I’ve been experimenting with brining(wet and dry) meats and I must say it’s working in an entirely different world.
Do you have much experience with it?
None at all. Sorry.
There used to be a poster here that did but I’m at a loss for what his nick was. I don’t see him around much.
Funny thing about bottled water. And why one should bring their own or else be dubious of what you buy.
We spotted a lady filling up bottles in the back of her shop with a hose! Yuk. I got Bali Belly pretty bad to boot.
Agree fervently with your rules. Supposedly you would not be hungry if you saw into the kitchens of the warungs that served food to hungry surfers.
Brought home a sweet jaffle iron from Bali.
Haven’t found sate as good as the cat sate I got in Bali (sorry, puss)
“Life is a banquet, and most poor suckers are starving to death.”
One of my favorite lines.
It helps if you have money, but there are a lot who have money who are starving to death.
Thanks much for your thoughts, Puss. Can we amend your water regulations to allow for anything that’s been boiled in wine? I’ve also have had good luck with befriending my drivers, (as long as they’ve been assigned to me for the duration), and perhaps counter-intuitively have often gotten fine recommendations from the waiters at the “better” dining establishments.
Loss,
Try brining with a splash of maple syrup added to your soak pot.
This is a fun place to eat……..did you check out the Food court in the Plaza hotel yet?
Still trying to decide if I should sell into this dead cat bounce. If I do try, my tenant will leave and she is a good tenant. If I am forced to sell next summer(cuz we pay private health insurance and our own medical bills; which has put us in the hole) and have to take less, couldn’t I also still buy another shanty which would have also lowered in price?
Lower tides sink all the ships, so if I am looking for shelter that is 3/4 the cost of the one I sell, a price dip may mean I could still buy a similar home regardless of what I get for mine? Meaning if my home loses 25%, a replacement home would also dip 25% wise, making it a wash? Inventory right now is so tight I could get multiple offers on my shack, but trying to put it into another house would mean competing with other offers. So maybe sell now but buy again in a year after bottom end inventory recovers. my folks made offers on 4 houses only to come up empty handed and have given up. They are now looking to buy a place in Green Valley, AZ, where they spend 5 months. They have solid pensions and my mom owns Minnesota farmland which is apparently doing very well right now.
My great tenant will give me 10k in rents between now and then if I wait a year. And she takes good care of the premises and the yard on her own dime.
Todays price is your best price.
Prices are falling.
I sold over 5 years ago and I’m still waiting for prices to return to sanity. IMHO if you own and can afford it just ignore the garbage going on outside your windows.
Thanks
What’s troubling me is I may have to sell, unless I can find some better work with health benefits. What I was thinking that even if I sell today at break even; and go into another shelter at 90k, then if I sell in a year at a 10% loss, then the 90k shelter will then cost 81k, more or less. Making selling now or later a wash, except for the rental income that I would be giving up. Rosy, wishful thinking maybe, IDK.
Also, selling a 2006 vintage house free and clear without damage may allow it to fetch a premium compared to manipulated REO or short sales. Traditional sale could be a selling point.
Advertising to Apple and Facebook as they will have a few employees in Prineville due to data center activities here.
How did Prineville snare Facebook? 15 years no municipal taxes was the deal I heard.
I may have to sell, unless I can find some better work with health benefits.
What? A major life decision based on a subservience to health-care benefits? Do you live in a poor and corrupt 3rd world country?
i really like substitute teaching. If I don’t like a class, I don’t go back. I don’t take papers home to grade. I meet lots of people and I like working with children more than tenants and vegetables.
but yeah, bennies….don’t have em and need them.
Four experts on CNN, one being Kudlow, just all agreed that housing has bottomed…so you can shut her down Ben.
LOL. Yeah, thanks Ben. It’s been a fun ride.
‘Four experts on CNN, one being Kudlow, just all agreed that housing has bottomed…so you can shut her down Ben.’
Lmao
Kudlow hasn’t even acknowledged the existence of a housing bubble.
Hell…. Kudlow and NAR media proxy Diane Swonk were cheerleading housing post 2006 on multiple occasions.
NAR’s favorite paid mouthpiece? Meserow Financial’s “consulting group”.
If you buy a house now, you’re going to lose alot of money. ALOT of money.
It was approx 6 years before RE bottomed after the Savings & Loan disaster. We’re only in year 5 of this one.
90% Of REO Held Off Market
http://realestate.aol.com/blog/2012/07/13/shadow-reo-as-much-as-90-percent-of-foreclosed-properties-are-h/
And this is just foreclosure. Not houses in pre-foreclosure, or in default but not in the process. Then there are many millions more underwater, that once they see the writing on the wall or have a financial crunch, will walk away.
If you read the article, it’s pretty much the lame positions we’ve already hashed out here. ‘They’re concerned about the housing market’. Give me a freaking break! If these people had one ounce of concern, they wouldn’t be shoehorning millions of first time buyers into 3% down loans.
“But Realtors who want more bargain-priced homes to sell may not get their way anytime soon. Foreclosed properties are an extreme liability to lenders, holding the potential not just to dent their profits but to actually bankrupt them altogether.”
“That’s because when a lender carries an REO on its books, it is allowed to value the home at the price that the foreclosed-on borrower originally paid for it. Once the lender sells the home, it must book a loss: the difference between the original purchase price and the current value. And since home values have fallen by nearly a third since the housing bust, that translates into huge losses for the bank.”
Bank of America Faces Bad Home-Equity Loans: Mortgages
By Kathleen M. Howley and Dakin Campbell - Apr 18, 2012 4:21 PM ET
Bank of America Corp., whose home- equity mortgage portfolio exceeds its stock market value, probably will say about $2 billion of junior loans are bad assets tomorrow even as some borrowers are still paying on time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-18/bank-of-america-faces-bad-home-equity-loans-mortgages.html - 155k -
And I love this money quote:
Online foreclosure marketplace RealtyTrac recently found that just 15% of REOs in the Washington, D.C., area were for sale, a statistic that is representative of nationwide numbers, the company said.
Does oxide know this? One wonders.
“RealtyTrac recently found that just 15% of REOs in the Washington, D.C., area were for sale, a statistic that is representative of nationwide numbers, the company said.”
I have been saying this for a long time, anywhere the Stanley Johnson commercial was aired there is a huge Shadow Inventory only to be met with…. What a mess Florida is or not in Coloroado or how crazy and corrupt the sand states are. Well this is a shock, RealtyTrac just found out that people like my first DBLL who moved back to Long Island in Oct. 2005 and bought an old postage stamp size lot with a 50 year old shack on it in early 2006 for $550k on a school board painters salary was a bubble area with a shadow inventory.
Who can afford it?
An acquaintance of mine recently tried to buy small house. Steady job history in a good industry. Slightly below median income.
No dice.
FONTANA, Calif. (AP) — In the foreclosure-battered inland stretches of California, local government officials desperate for change are weighing a controversial but inventive way to fix troubled mortgages: Condemn them.
Now — and amid skepticism on many fronts — officials from the surrounding county of San Bernardino and cities of Fontana and Ontario have created a joint powers authority to consider what role local governments could take to stem the crisis. The goal is to keep homeowners saddled by large mortgage payments from losing their homes — which are now valued at a fraction of what they were once worth.
“We just have too much pain and misery in this county to call off a public discussion like this,” said David Wert, a county spokesman.
The idea was broached by a group of West Coast financiers who suggest using the power of eminent domain, which lets the government seize private property for public use. In this case, they would condemn troubled mortgages so they could seize them from the investors who own them. Then the mortgages would be rewritten so the borrowers would have significantly lower monthly payments.
Steven Gluckstern,
“This is not a bunch of Wall Street guys sitting around saying, ‘How do we make money?’” he said. “This was a bunch of Wall Street guys sitting around saying, ‘How do you solve this problem?’”
Under the proposal, a city or county would sign on as a client of Mortgage Resolution Partners, then condemn certain mortgages. The mortgages are typically owned by private investors like hedge funds and pension funds.
Under eminent domain, the city or county would be required to pay those investors “fair value” for the seized mortgages. So Mortgage Resolution Partners would find private investors to fund that.
Mortgage Resolution Partners will focus on mortgages where the borrowers are current on their payments but are “under water,” meaning their mortgage costs more than the home is worth. After being condemned and seized, the mortgages would be rewritten based on the homes’ current values. The borrowers would get to stay, but with cheaper monthly payments. The city or county would resell the loans to other private investors, so it could pay back the investors who funded the seizure and pay a flat fee to Mortgage Resolution Partners.
The company says that overall, all parties will be happy. The homeowners, for obvious reasons. The cities, for stemming economic blight without using taxpayer bailouts. And even the investors whose mortgage investments are seized. Mortgage Resolution Partners figures they should be glad to unload a risky asset.
Rick Rayl, an eminent domain lawyer in Irvine, Calif., who is not connected to the company, isn’t so sure.
“The lenders are going to be livid,” he said. He thinks the plan could have unintended consequences, like discouraging banks and other lenders from making new mortgage loans in an area.
The company says that focusing on borrowers who are current on their loans is a smart way to do business, rewarding those who are already working hard to keep their homes. But, Rayl pointed out, those are also the exact mortgages that investors are eager to keep.
Already, the outcry was heard at the first meeting of the joint powers authority on Friday, even as chairman and San Bernardino County chief executive Greg Devereaux said the entity — which was inspired by Mortgage Resolution Partners’ proposal — has not yet decided on a specific course of action.
Theodore Woodard, a 62-year-old retired air conditioner installer, said he’d welcome the help on his five-bedroom home in Fontana. So far, he and his wife have kept up with monthly $3,100 payments, plus taxes and insurance, but it hasn’t been easy, and they have watched several neighbors in the well-manicured neighborhood some 50 miles east of Los Angeles lose their homes to foreclosure.
“We’ve been making our monthly payments, barely making them, but we just pay them and try to survive off what’s left,” said Woodard, who estimates his house has lost a third of its value since 2004.
I loved the line that this isn’t a bunch of WS trying to get rich. We have finally entered the whales eating each other. One group wants to use local gov to seize properties from other whales using eminent domain. Wow.
news.yahoo.com/calif-cities-eye-plan-seize-mortgages-190416716–finance.html
Holy moly.
15 July 2012 - 21H12
‘Monica, Monica’ chants taunt Clinton in Egypt
AFP - US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was taunted by chants of “Monica, Monica” by tomato-throwing demonstrators as she visited the Egyptian port city of Alexandria on Sunday.
The chants, referring to the Monica Lewinsky scandal when her husband, Bill Clinton, was president, were heard outside the US consulate as she visited for its reopening.
An embarrassed Egyptian security official said they were chanting “Monica, Monica” and “Irhal, Clinton” (Get out, Clinton.)
Tomatoes, shoes and a water bottle were thrown at part of Clinton’s motorcade as it pulled up, protected by riot police, although a US official said Clinton’s own vehicle was not hit.
The protest appears to have been the result of suspicions that Washington had helped the Muslim Brotherhood win elections in Egypt in the wake of last year’s ouster of president Hosni Mubarak after 18 days of massive street protests.
“I want to be clear that the United States is not in the business, in Egypt, of choosing winners and losers, even if we could, which, of course, we cannot,” Clinton said at the opening of the consulate.
http://www.france24.com/en/20120715-monica-monica-chants-taunt-clinton-egypt - -
“I want to be clear that the United States is not in the business, in Egypt, of choosing winners and losers, even if we could, which, of course, we cannot,”
Funny answer!. “Well, we don’t choose winners and losers in Egypt, only in other countries. So don’t you guys worry.”
This is not a good forum for asking what the tax level will be in 20 years, since most people here are negative on EVERYTHING.
The question: Convert $92,000 of Rollover IRA to Roth or keep as rollover? If I keep it as rollover it will be taxed as ordinary income when I start withdrawing. Assuming $370,000 (my approximate total in rollover IRA and 401k today) in grows at a 10% rate, the total in 17 years when I absolutely must withdraw will be 5 times $1,850,000. Let’s say I have ten more years to live after that. $185,000 per year. That would be my ordinary income, which is higher than my current income. That is if I do not contribute a dime more to my 401k. And I will.
I already have over $200,000 in Roths. I can keep that amount in Roths longer than 17 years and never take distributions, but donate to my favorite charity.
Eventually even if I convert the $92,000 additional to Roth, I will have more pre tax money in 401ks and traditional IRAs than I do Roths. But I want to be able to retire in the People’s Republic of California if I want.
I have months to decide at least. I have a big tax break already this year and it will offset about $73,000 out of the $92,000.
Nobody has any clue what will happen in 20 years.
I couldn’t even tell you the tax rate in 2 years let alone 20.
I’d just hedge the bet 50-50 and be done with it.
You can’t optimize this stuff more than a certain amount, and anyone who’s telling you otherwise is lying.
Now see, that’s the honest answer I was looking for. Thanks for not being a grump.
These articles always annoy me. If such micro-management makes such a big difference to you, you’re doing it wrong.
Incidentally, there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that you are gonna make that 10% mark 17 years in a row. Even on average. Even in aggregate on geometric average.
I’d have a Plan B if I were you.
“Incidentally, there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that you are gonna make that 10% mark 17 years in a row.”
Hear, hear. I’d plan on making what you can make in treasuries and figure anything over is gravy.
There was no snowball’s chance in hell that the broad indices would earn an average ten percent gain per year since 1926. But they did.
But “it’s different this time” applies to now I guess is what you are thinking.
I doubt it. Market cycles will continue.
Will there be the Ron Paul revolution before 20 years, abolishing all taxes? Then my Roth conversion would be wasted if such a revolution happens.
If not, I can still get to my original Roth conversion amount tax free after five years. There is enough hate of big government and distrust of big government to prevent more radical things such as Obamacare. Obamacare may well be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
The Roths are for us.
“Will there be the Ron Paul revolution before 20 years, abolishing all taxes?”
I would not bet on this.
LMFAO
Scroll down to “Owner Estimate”
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8649-Pinetree-Dr-N-Seminole-FL-33772/47137813_zpid/
Last sold: Jan 1977 for $59,900
Zestimate is too high: A Dead Beat Dad Lives here, he doesn’t see his child that only lives 4 blocks away and he is behind in child support by over 3 years and $20k . His name is Robert (Bob) Taylor posted on 07/09/2010
What, is the Dead Beat Dad the grandson of the owner? Either that or Robert (Bob) Taylor is too GD old to walk the 4 blocks to see his child and his SS check isn`t enough to cover child support.
Let me start this to Slim:
Ahhh he joys of terrestrial radio being taken over by an automated EBS system….well I am getting the lightning and thunderstorms….
Excellent show Great music selection and i’m not really into jazz, but it kept me interested.
critique…uh oh…dj gonna get it from slim…..
after the first set of instrumental jazz, back announce the artist title and maybe some interesting fact, do a PSA, then intro the artist or song way over yonder which will start the new set of vocal jazz.. It sounds better when changing formats or style.
Try every 3 or 4 songs or 15 minutes a break..playing. 5-6+ songs and waiting for the announcer is too long.
Like: After that wild rendition of mack the knife by Ella Fitgerald…we had..
Or maybe whoa Ella..yes that’s Ella fitzgerald in that wild version of Mack the Knife…. again a break between styles tempo…..
I really liked the voice over psa’s, donate your cars, weather etc…sounded great.
And the ending was just fine outro’d the song thanked your host …and went right into the next segment…
———–
And you can enjoy an afternoon or evening cup or glass of your favorite drink as I return to the airwaves on KXCI. Today, it’s a one-hour Jazz Women! special. Featuring names you know. And names worth getting to know.
Tune me in, 5 p.m. MST or 8 p.m. EDT, on the KXCI web stream.