Day three of his world tour, day one of the Olympics, and things aren’t getting much better for our boy Willard. Having been monstered by Fleet Street for his criticisms of the preparations for the Games, contradicted by the Prime Minister, and ridiculed by the mayor of London, the Mittster is now facing criticism from one of his own nation’s greatest athletes, the sprinter Carl Lewis.
“Every Olympics is ready,” Lewis, who won nine gold medals at four different Olympics, told the Independent. “I don’t care whatever [Romney] said. I swear, sometimes I think some Americans shouldn’t leave the country. Are you kidding me, stay home if you don’t know what to say.”
…
Not that I necessarily disagree with his assessment, but “greatest athlete”, Carl Lewis, was a notorious drug cheat.
However, if they’re going to allow bionic competitors like Oscar Petorious to run, I don’t see why pharmaceutical performance enhancers shouldn’t also be allowed. After all, the Olympics used to be about amateur athletics– and look what happened to that requirement.
“free healthcare” always means someone is on the unfortunate side of the gun.
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Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-07-28 08:44:40
They talked before about 30 million people not being able to afford health care ,but as time goes on it’s going to be more like 100 million not being able to afford health care .
How will that effect all the figures they figured in the
creation of the Health Care Bill ?
Comment by aragonzo
2012-07-28 09:56:23
Those gun-toting Norwegians sure are causing a ruckus! It can be argued that all taxation comes from the end of a gun but all civilization comes from the end of a gun, too. If there is going to be a group of people living together, laws are needed, as is enforcement. Enforcement comes from guns. In other words, if you live in any society with rules, there is a gun pointing at you somewhere. The gun already exists.
“Free” health care and single payer systems are not the same thing. Single payer systems usually have a bundle of services that come at no cost and others that the user must pay for. Injuries like gunshot wounds are usually provided at no cost while elective treatments (like plastic surgery) are user-pay. Although free market theory predicts that this model should be less cost effective, in practice, this does not appear to be the case.
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 13:59:25
So the United States was uncivilized between 1870 and 1913?
The brainwashers did well to plant a meme into you that without taxes we do not have a civil society.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-07-28 14:17:46
The brainwashers did well to plant a meme into you that without taxes we do not have a civil society.
So we had no taxes between 1870 and 1913?
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 19:03:06
There were no income taxes between 1870 and 1913. Revenue was mainly through tariffs. Also from the beginning of the nation up to 1860 again, no income taxes.
Congress constitutionally has the power to lay and collect taxes. But up until 1913 they were intelligent enough to understand their power to lay and collect taxes was very dangerous and only to be used for emergencies. We had basically a 100 year emergency.
America got along well without being world cop before your Wilsonian era of big government. You communists now think, taxes are American. When in fact they are anti-American and not part of our heritage.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-07-28 19:24:52
Revenue was mainly through tariffs.
Oh, so we did have taxes during that period.
Can you give us an example of any civilization in world history that didn’t have taxes of some sort, Bill?
Bear in mind that a tariff is a government imposed tax.
tar·iff/ˈtarif/
Noun:
A tax or duty to be paid on a particular class of imports or exports.
Merriam Webster
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 21:20:50
It’s a government-imposed tax on foreigners. That’s my point - not on Americans.
I said it months ago that we need to return to tariffs to even up the playing field.
Other nations such as China have little or no income taxes and capital gain taxes. Go figure. A communist country being more capitalist than the USA.
You bloggers complain about outsourcing. Well reduce our corporate taxes and raise tariffs on foreign goods. Eliminate our own income taxes, corporate taxes, capital gains taxes, dividends taxes and do NOT implement any new tax. Then we will see America get back its golden age.
“It’s a government-imposed tax on foreigners. That’s my point - not on Americans.”
Sounds good, until your trade partner imposes a tax — not on its own citizens — i.e. a tariff paid by Americans.
Comment by aragonzo
2012-07-28 23:57:21
Wasn’t the Wild West still around in the late 1800’s? Hardly what I would call a civil society.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-07-29 04:16:25
It’s a government-imposed tax on foreigners.
Let’s try again and see if your reading comprehension can overcome your political blinders.
A tariff is either (1) a tax on imports or exports (trade tariff) in and out of a country, or (2) a list or schedule of prices for such things as rail service, bus routes, and electrical usage (electrical tariff, etc.).[
wikipedia
It is a tax, imposed by the government, and generally paid by the citizens of the country that imposes it. (US traders paid the tariffs in the US, not some Chinese dude in a boat at the port.)
So, since the only example you can come up with is incorrect, we can see that there has never been civilization without taxes.
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-29 05:15:04
It was a more polite society
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-29 05:21:11
PB. Hence you must favor NAFTA and the other trade agreements. America essentially agreed to not have tariffs, along with other nations, but Jack up the taxes on it’s own citizens and entrepreneurs and continue to be a nanny state. It is no coincidence the U.S. Is now tenth on the list of countries with the most economic freedom. Less than thirty years ago we were fourth on the list.
“Hence you must favor NAFTA and the other trade agreements.”
That’s a big leap of faith for you to say this. I was just pointing out the flaw in your argument, as imposing tariffs on a nation’s trade partners is quite likely to quickly lead to reciprocal tariffs on imports. The net effect is a tax increase on trade flows, which I hear Republicans and Libertarians alike think would be a bad outcome.
All the folks on this blog that have never competed at the highest levels of a sport are just unaware of what’s going on in all (yes, all) pro sports (or Olympic caliber) in the world today. You point at Carl Lewis, Lance Armstrong, Barry Bonds, etc and scream “cheat”. What you don’t realize is that, at these levels, they are all “cheating”.
Look at the improvements made in world record times over the past 50 years (for lots of sports). What do you think happened? Sure, technology does play a role (slick suits for swimmers, for example), but, in general, the answer is drugs/hormones/blood doping/etc. Look at football players, we now have wide receivers that are bigger than linebackers of 50 years ago, and faster than Olympic quality sprinters from the same period. What do you think is going on here?
Sports are a proving ground for the newest and best techniques to gain an edge over competitors. Almost all of it is technology on one level (slick suits, carbon fiber bikes, running shoes, etc), and yet, we punish only one type of technology (drugs)?
Of course pharma enhancers should be allowed, they are already there, and, honestly, the teams that win have the best doctors who know how to play cat and mouse with the testing bodies. There’s still no reliable test for GH, one of the biggest advances in sports medicine (and yes, it confers a significant athletic advantage) and anti-aging medicine over the last 50 years.
Also, on another note, I could care less about pro sports and the effects of PE drugs there. The real crime is the “average Joe/Jane” who continues to get fatter and more out of shape, unable to conceive of how the models, actors, etc can look so perfect. Most people go through a cycle where they decide; I’m going to get ripped and make myself look like *Insert hardbody here*. They work out like a maniac for 6-12 months, and, at the end, realize that they look nothing like those they are trying to imitate, get discouraged and quit (in fact, in many cases, they don’t look that much different than they did when they started). The thing they don’t realize, those people they are trying to imitate, almost without exception, have a huge pharmacological advantage over them, they are taking a cocktail of drugs that helps them look the way they want to. It’s become so pervasive in movies that we don’t even notice it anymore, but, for a good idea, take a look at Edward Norton in American History X, and then take a look at Cary Grant. Edward Norton looks like a professional bodybuilder from Cary’s day. How do you think this happened? Shoot, even the morons on Jersey Shore, drinking 30 beers a night and putting in crappy workouts each and every day would WIN an international bodybuilding competition from the 30’s-40’s..
And yes, I did use these kinds of drugs for years (legally, because, if you can afford it, it’s very easy to get doctors to prescribe you GH and testosterone), and advised others on how to use them. I no longer do it, not because I disagree with them, or because I found them harmful, but, unfortunately, I just don’t have the time to get into the gym and I don’t think it’s reasonable to take the risks (YES, there are risks) if I’m not going to be able to maximize my results.
The people who single out “Carl Lewis” or “Barry Bonds” just make me laugh. Open your eyes people, those guys weren’t the exception to the rule, they ARE the rule and happened to do something stupid and get caught.
Good post, Overtaxed. You seem really fired up today.
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Comment by frankie
2012-07-28 08:06:09
Your only a cheat if you get caught; otherwise your a hero.
Comment by Overtaxed
2012-07-28 08:29:47
Combo,
Well, I’ve been reading a bunch of books that have had me in deep thought (and not very pleasant thought); The Bell Curve, Better to Never Have Been, The Art of War.. It’s a very encouraging bunch of books to read at one time. I think I need to intersperse a comedy in there as well to cheer me up.
And, this is a topic that burns my a**, it always has since I understood what was really going on. When I was younger, I used to spend hours in the gym, tons of money on “natural supplements” (which, no surprise, many turned out to be more dangerous than the illegal stuff) and was so discouraged after 3-4 years of this that I just about quit and said to myself “I’m just never going to look like they guys in magazines (not bodybuilding magazines)”. Then, finally, I decided to give in and try steroids. My first time it was a guy at the gym, and, within 2 months, I was a “hardbody” (at least in my mind). I got all kinds of attention, felt great about myself, met my current wife, and, in general, was a great part of my life. Nobody suspected I was on steroids, I wasn’t huge (I looked like Mike S, the moron that he is; it’s probably the best way I can describe my physique at the time), just “big” and defined. I continued to work out and looked great for about 5 years, again, very happy with how I looked/felt and people reacted to me. And the entire time, the comments that my wife, friends, family would hear was “he looks great”, not “he’s a freak” or “What’s he on”.
A few years ago, my job started to require me to do a lot of travel, and, unfortunately, I blew out my back which really put an end to my “hardbody” days. I’m still in good shape, and I still go to the gym, but, much like almost everyone else not taking steroids, you’d never look at me today and say “Wow, great body”, just more “average build, not overweight”.
The thing that really burns my butt about this is; in case nobody’s noticed, we have a terrible obesity epidemic in this country. Many of those people went through the “first few years” of my experience in the gym, killed themselves, say minimal/no results, and then gave up. They expected 3-4 days a week, 1-2 hours each and they’d look like Mike S. When they didn’t, they gave up and resigned themselves to a life of physical mediocrity, many of them becoming overweight or worse later in life. This is a real crime against the American people; I always was very honest with others about my steroid use; people would always come up to me in the gym and say “you must spend every day here” or “what do you have, about 50 sets to go?”. Many people (who I personally knew were juicing) would say “Yeah man, it’s hard work” or some BS like that. I’d tell them, point blank, “I’m going to be here for 45 minutes, and probably going to work out less that you will. I’ll be lucky if I get in here 3 times this week. I look like this because I take steroids and eat a reasonable diet”. The look of shock on many people’s faces was almost worth it; but, also, I wanted them to know the truth about how people “did it”, and not to discourage them; if you don’t either take steroids or spend your entire day here 7 days a week, you’ll NEVER look like this.
Also, the other thing that really annoys me about all this.. Once I got enough money, I started to go to sports doctors, all of whom would (and still will) prescribe me testosterone at the drop of a hat. The folks who can’t afford the appointments and cost of the legal stuff are the ones who go to jail, get infections/sick, etc. It’s insane that I can “buy my way” out of the legal system that surrounds steroids because I can afford a Dr to write for me. But, I guess, that’s just the state of drug prohibition in the US. Rush Limbaugh bought his way out of a huge opiate habit; if he didn’t have the money, he’d be buying heroin on the street; because he could afford it, he had nothing but nice and legal drugs whenever he wanted it. What a joke.
So basically, steroids/HGH/testostrone worked for you.
I didn’t take the shit. But wish I had.
So what if it cuts a few years off of your life? If it puts you into the top 10% of income earners, you are still better off than the typical J6P schlub/loser.
“…So what if it cuts a few years off of your life?…”
Well, take a good look at Bruce Jenner and Ahnode these days. Even with all the plastic surgery they still look like freaky old grandmas.
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-07-28 10:03:43
Better to be a rich, freaky old grandma looking dude, than be me.
I’ll bet they don’t worry about a bleak future for themselves, their kids and their grandkids.
I’m basically screwed. So are a lot of people like me, they just don’t know it yet. They watch Fox News too much.
All three of my daughters (and my granddaughter) are screwed. They will be caught in the crossfire between the rioting/stealing/murdering wretched refuse, and the top 10%ers, who will be able to afford the personal security services needed when the government money to pay the cops runs out.
The oldest is starting to suspect it. I don’t have the heart to tell the other two. All three are stocking up on guns and ammo, for the coming “Zombie Apocalypse”.
Comment by combotechie
2012-07-28 10:05:34
“… So what if it cuts a few years off of you life?…”
Yeah, what’s the big deal. It’s not as if you can’t just go out and buy more of it.
Comment by aragonzo
2012-07-28 10:06:04
Fixr, be thankful you didn’t take steroids. A good friend of mine was on juice for a few years. He was working out before he started and had plateaued. After going on roids, he put on 40 lb in about 6 weeks and it was all muscle.
However, when he stopped, he also stopped working out and all the muscle on his arms and legs melted away and formed a large tire around his gut. He went from looking like a white Mike Tyson to a flabby pigeon. He never got close to his pre-juice form.
Comment by combotechie
2012-07-28 10:09:38
Ask a guy that’s thirty if he is looking foreward to becoming eighty and he will most likely tell you “No”.
Ask a person that’s seventy-nine the same question and you will get an entirely different answer.
Comment by oxide
2012-07-28 10:22:10
obesity epidemic
Stop eating wheat, corn, sugar, white potatoes.
I know that ahansen and I disagree on this. But I see just too many people “eating right” and execising exactly as they are told, and it’s not working for them. It. Just. Isn’t. Sure, it works for some, but only a few. For the rest, the ones who try hard are exhausted and they still can’t get there. The ones who don’t try, or who are more susceptible, are in much worse shape. Meanwhile, my only exercise is mowing the lawn, and I haven’t weighed so little since before puberty hit. I wear clothing meant for people 20 years younger than me. I keep forgetting to eat.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-07-28 10:24:09
look like freaky old grandmas.
Guffaw! I was thinking the same as I watched Paul McCartney last night.
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-07-28 10:37:34
I believe in “It’s better to die a little too soon, than too late”
The way things are going in our country, many others will come to agree with me.
Say your alternatives are:
-Dying suddenly of a heart attack or stroke at 60-65, the day after you get laid off (again)
or
-Slowly dying of Alzheimers at age 70, while having the medico/drug complex suck every last dime out of your meager estate, eventually dying of infections related to improper treatment at the $hithole nursing home you went to, after you ran out of money?
It’s becoming increasingly apparant that these are the choices I’ll be limited to.
Nothing like looking for a job at age 54 to help you figure out what society thinks you are “worth”.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-07-28 10:39:59
in case nobody’s noticed, we have a terrible obesity epidemic in this country…
This is the part I was thinking you left out as I read your first post. I don’t think people need to turn to steroids to get very positive results. I think the problem with most folks who decide to get into the gym is they think it’s a one-threaded affair. In reality, diet also must change. When it doesn’t, and results don’t follow, they give up.
It wasn’t until I eschewed fried food and dairy (in addition to turning up the cardio) that the pounds I needed to shed came off and I firmed up.
Oxy, it’s not that I disagree with you, it’s that the science disagrees with you. Exercising “exactly” like “they” tell you may or may not cause you to lose weight– there are too many other factors to consider and everyone’s body is different, which I suspect is what you are referencing? For most people, exercise isn’t an efficient way to lose weight, (though it may make you fitter).
In fact, initially, as you exercise (whatever that means) you may gain weight because you’re putting on muscle, which weighs more than the fat you’re burning off. And as you lose weight you may reach various metabolic plateaus as your body “resets” itself.
But the dynamics of weight loss are really very simple, and they’re not subject to scientific debate:
Consume fewer kcl than your basal metabolism requires, and you will lose weight. Consume more than you use, and you will gain weight. Period.
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2012-07-28 11:31:05
I have found that it’s not really what I eat that’s the problem, it’s how much. Not every body is the same. I can eat Ben and Jerry’s for dinner and not gain weight, as long as I don’t include a pepperoni pizza.
Comment by Neuromance
2012-07-28 11:35:31
Overtaxed: Fantastic post, very interesting.
I’ve been hitting the weights most of my life, with varying intensities. The reality I discovered is that it comes down to genetics. At my peak form, I was weaker than a friend of mine who had lifted in the past, but had been away from the weights for a long time. Genetics. Nothing was going to give me that bone structure and tendon size and muscle “density”.
Another data point: I knew a guy who was built like a Greek god. Broad shoulders, skinny waist, heavily muscled. Whenever I saw him in the gym, he was socializing. Genetics. Nothing was going to give me that bone structure.
Then, you take all of us and give us steroids and it’s going to lift the whole boat, but with the health consequences that come from steroid use.
But, as with everything, someone’s profiting from it.
Comment by Neuromance
2012-07-28 11:46:40
oxide wrote:
obesity epidemic
Stop eating wheat, corn, sugar, white potatoes.
I know that ahansen and I disagree on this. But I see just too many people “eating right” and execising exactly as they are told, and it’s not working for them. It. Just. Isn’t
Different ethnicities require different food types. And it varies within ethnicity.
Example: An Inuit (Eskimo) living in Alaska, or a native Siberian (the name escapes me). Versus a Mediterranean fisherman type. Versus a South Asian (Indian) farmer.
The Inuit is evolved to eat massive amounts of protein and very little vegetable matter. The Indian farmer at the opposite end of the spectrum is evolved to eat high levels of vegetable matter and very little animal protein.
I think each individual has to look at his ethnicity to get an idea of what works best for him and her, then experiment to determine what is the precise best mix. Telling an Inuit to go full vegetarian will like result in a very sick Inuit. Telling an Indian to eat a lot of steak will likely make him very sick.
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
2012-07-28 12:41:42
” The Bell Curve, Better to Never Have Been, The Art of War.. It’s a very encouraging bunch of books to read at one time.”………………….
How could you possibly find The Bell Curve “encouraging”?
It is an indictment of the racial social policies of the United States, policies suggesting that we can make people equal.
The Bell Curve unequivocally says we can’t and never will.
We’ll just “redistribute” the wealth so everyone will look equal.
The authors concluded that to save America we needed rapid birth control of “minority” populations having multiple welfare babies to prevent a complete collapse of society.
I agreed with their findings, but I also read “Paved with Good Intentions”. This was some 20 years ago. Nothing has changed.
We continue down the same road to damnation.
Pick up a copy of “paved with good intentions”. It’s a real eye-opener.
Comment by Overtaxed
2012-07-28 13:19:06
“How could you possibly find The Bell Curve “encouraging”?”
I was being facetious, I find it terribly depressing. There’s just so much research in that book that all (obviously) points to the same conclusion. IQ (or G, general intelligence) is, by far, the most important thing to be born with in this world. Unfortunately, it’s a genetic trait, which means, through time, that families with high G will have more high G children than those with low G.
And, of course, the kicker, those with low G are having FAR more children that those with high G. We are honestly watching a devolution (is that a word; my spell check thinks so?) of our general intelligence. This is a terrifying reality, and it’s also happening at a shockingly rapid pace (a few IQ points per generation). Extend this out a few hundred years, and we’ve got some serious issues on our hands.
My IQ is by no means “exceptional”, but it’s over the median by a reasonable amount. I don’t think I’ll be having any children. And, across my social circle, I can see it happening very clearly, those with the “most brains” are having no, or few children. Those who are less intelligent are having 3-4. And this is just my social circle, I’m not talking about welfare babies here, just more children to those who are less intelligent, but certainly not “dumb”. Or society is somehow encouraging the more intelligent to have less/no children (and I don’t exactly know why).
Also, the ramifications for a child born today with substandard intelligence is also quite horrific. It’s almost as if we all suddenly had to play basketball for a living, very quickly we’d figure out that white guys that are 5′10 and have no game aren’t very useful members of “society” (assuming, again, that the only purpose of society is to play basketball).
As I said, it’s quite a collection of books, I need to get something funny in there to keep me from going into a depression and doing nothing but writing 3 page posts to some random blog…
Comment by Overtaxed
2012-07-28 13:24:51
“Genetics. Nothing was going to give me that bone structure and tendon size and muscle “density”. Another data point: I knew a guy who was built like a Greek god. Broad shoulders, skinny waist, heavily muscled. Whenever I saw him in the gym, he was socializing. Genetics. Nothing was going to give me that bone structure.”
Thanks, glad you found the rant interesting (or at least readable). The only thing I’d disagree with you on, where you say “genetics” should, in most cases, be replaced with “steroids”. Especially in your 2nd example, a guy built like a greek god, almost without a shadow of a doubt (especially if you see him jacking around in the gym all the time) is almost certainly taking something to get that kind of form. And to your first point, you probably know what I’m going to say… But yes, something would give you that kind of tendon size and muscle density. It’s just a question of if the risks are worth it.
I wish I could show you a picture of what a real “natural” bodybuilder looks like, but, what you’re picturing in your mind is nothing like the reality. Take a look at some of the pros from the 30’s and 40’s, that will give you a good idea. Yes, training techniques and diets have improved a bit, so, perhaps you can find a genetic freak who looks a bit better than the pros of the 30’s and 40’s who’s “clean”, but, frankly, the reason our pros look nothing like that today has far more to do with drugs than it has to do with anything else.
Poor guy — I found myself thinking he should have sung ‘When I’m Sixty-four’ rather than ‘Hey Jude.’ My kids complained about how he sounded, and they are all Beatlephiles.
Having played in a backup orchestra for Tony Bennett a couple of times when he was already in his seventies, I can say that not all singers are washed up at that point in their careers. I see he is scheduled to perform in San Diego this September — at age 86. I will feel fortunate if I am still getting my violin out of the case on a regular basis once I hit that age.
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 14:24:07
The number one principle in the obesity epidemic is this: If you put more in than you burn off, it’s going to most likely become fat. There are exceptions: Many hyperthyroid people (I think I posted I’m hypothyroidic. I meant I’m hyperthyroidic) who don’t seem to have the medication well tuned for their biochemistry.
I see obese people at the gym daily. One guy as wide as a doorway, very nice guy, probably 350 lbs (which is double my weight), who is on the cardio cross trainer for an hour. Probably burns 400 calories. But he probably eats 4,500 calories a day, maybe more! Just an estimate.
Back to hyperthyroid: I saw a lot of web blogs where most people complain about levothyroxine being non-affective on their problem. That their doctors reluctantly allowed them to use Armour and they are much better. I guess it works for them but so far levothyroxine works for me. I was an obese kid from age 5 to 17, then I was chubby for three years in my late 30s due to my wonderful ex girlfriend’s awesome cooking. Other than that, I’ve used regular exercise, both weights and cardio to keep me wearing waist size 33 jeans. I could probably fit 32 because I need to extra tighten my belt.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-07-28 15:15:36
I see obese people at the gym daily.
Same here, and like your “one guy” there is one lady in particular that I’ve always noticed at my gym because she only does weights (never see her doing any cardio) and has looked EXACTLY the same for the 3 years I’ve been going to that gym, and she’s always there when I’m there. Not sure I’d call her obese but she’s definitely carrying extra weight around.
Perhaps I’m projecting what her goal is but if weight loss is one of them, she’s clearly not doing enough to burn calories or not altering her diet.
When Carl (”I don’t know how they’re doing it without drugs”) Lewis was competing in the 1980’s, “doping” was basically limited to professional bodybuilders, wrestlers, and pro team sports. Track and field athletes of the time made a point of “clean competition” and hugely resented Lewis for introducing that element into their sport. Not sure when you were competing, Over, but up until the ‘84 Olympics, high level amateur competiors took that sort of thing very seriously and policed their own– even if the OC did not.
Curiously, the routine use of performance-enhancing injectables coincided neatly with Romney’s selling of the Games to corporate sponsors in Salt Lake City in 1988. Funny how that corruptions thing works….
Sorry, SLC in 2002. Lewis was publicly “caught” in 1988 after his team ratted him out to the IOC.
Comment by Overtaxed
2012-07-28 08:39:27
Ahansen,
Yes, I would agree, there certainly were some sports back then where the majority of the competitors were clean. There probably still are some, where steroids just don’t provide much/any advantage to the competitors. However, today, if there’s an advantage to be had by being bigger/faster/stronger or having more endurance (which is almost all professional and most Olympic sports), you can almost guarantee you that the there are a LOT of steroids in those competitors when they get on the starting line.
The easiest thing to see is when a “set” sport starts to get records shattered. Things like the sprints, marathons, etc where technology plays no role at all. That’s not training “methods” (you’re running for god’s sake, how much can you improve training for that), and it sure as s**t isn’t evolution, it’s something in their blood that’s allowing them to do things that, just a few years ago, would have been impossible.
Comment by shendi
2012-07-28 11:03:31
How about football the sport that americans call soccer? I think average skills can turn into speed but not into real skills.
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2012-07-28 11:53:36
“How about football the sport that americans call soccer? I think average skills can turn into speed but not into real skills.”
This goes for most sports. Steroids don’t help technique. I spent a good part of my life playing baseball until I quit in my mid 20’s, and there were a lot of guys who were juiced to the hilt. I could still hit the ball further than them, and they just scratched their heads. I’ve never worked out regularly in my life. I hate the gym, but really enjoyed playing the game. I suppose if I would have juiced up, I could have increased the distance of my home runs, but it wasn’t even necessary.
Comment by shendi
2012-07-28 12:04:34
Then, looking at the current soccer players it seems that cardio certainly works! I also think that these players are blessed with genes that give them that edge. In other words they are predisposed to being fit (ripped as many have said here). The cardio they get playing 1.5 hours and the training just takes them to a new level
Comment by In Colorado
2012-07-28 12:51:57
There are more than a few retired soccer players who become porkers once they stopped playing (and got older).
Comment by Montana
2012-07-28 15:27:16
I don’t like the single-minded and aggressive behavior in the guys who are obviously juicing. The personality really changes and they’re quite unpleasant to deal with.
I seem to recall a former governor of a certain West Coast state who got himself into a lot of hot water for groping females back in his weight training / steroid injecting days.
Comment by josemanolo
2012-07-28 20:24:54
ot, i do not know how you can generalized your conclusion about steroid use on the sport of long distance running, in particular. i am a runner and pretty much can claim that steroids does not help much. its technology alright, but more on the part of training, biology, biomechanics, psychology, etc. ever wondered why east africans dominate this sports and why elite us runners are almost all training in the highlands, like mammoth? btw, the great rift is in east africa. go figure.
And yet JoPa didn’t give his athletes drugs didn’t see or participate in anything illegal, and they take away his Wins….
——-And yes, I did use these kinds of drugs for years
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Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-07-28 14:15:51
He didn’t let his athletes do drugs, but he let his staff sexually abuse children. That’s why he was stripped of his wins.
Turns out he was an evil mofo. Or at the very least, a heartless POS. Just think if it was your kid, or your nephew or niece, then maybe even you will begin to get it.
Comment by Montana
2012-07-28 15:28:37
What, his players didn’t take drugs? Are you sure? He didn’t have to be the one to personally hand the stuff to them. But his recruiting and training practices are pretty much the standard at all the football schools around the country, and I thought all those enhancers just went with the territory now.
At 52 my TSH finally was high enough that my doctor prescribed levothyroxine. My major symptom was in my blood. But an endocrinologist confirmed via ultrasound that I have enlargement of my thyroid. It’s mild and I’m taking 50 mcg daily. I was having joint pain and attributed that to the onset of arthritis and being in wet humid areas mostly (Florida or beach areas of L.A.)
Within the first week of being on the medicine my digestion became normal. After eight months or so on the medicine my joint pain dissipated. I had to change my freestyle swim technique over 15 months ago to be easier on my shoulders without sacrificing speed.
Now I’m adding back in body building. I was big into that in the 80s and 90s. I’m focusing on pushups.
The combination of synthroid (under doctor’s guidance) and “listening” to my body (exercising smart to minimize joint pain) and diet resulted me in being at my most ripped ever. I don’t have the 6 pack abs yet but I am very close to it. My last exhaustive pushup test, I could do 65 consecutive pushups with the use of pushup bars and military style. That’s the equivalent of more pushups with hands on the floor because I get the added stretch with the bars. In my early 30s I could only do 52 max.
A few weeks after starting the synthroid, I found out that some body builders use it to cut down on fat.
I think I might have gotten into the right groove with the drug positively interacting with my biochemistry. But I am being proactive and getting regular blood tests and endocrinology appointments.
Hypothyroidism is common in people whose parents grew up in the Great Lakes areas. Not common in men but I was predisposed. My oldest sister was diagnosed with it as a kid. I basically staved it off until my 50s. I’m on drugs for life. And I’m upbeat about it because I know older people who are also on these drugs and they lead normal lives. One is in his 70s and still a contract engineer flying back and forth between Wisconsin and Georgia. A gal friend of mine was on synthroid for most of her life and she is not obese at all.
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Comment by Overtaxed
2012-07-28 08:46:50
Yup, T3 and T4 are pretty common in the BB community. I never used them very much, because, honestly, messing with my thyroid levels made me a little nervous. But, lots of guys do/did, and they saw very good weight loss from them. I was always worried about having to be on those drugs for life, which, at my age, would have been a real PITA. When you come off testosterone, you’re levels are low, but they almost always recover. When you start taking stuff like T3/T4 or insulin, you can have a situation where you’re never going to recover you “pre” levels and wind up on those drugs forever. In your situation, sounds like you got there without any “supplementing” earlier in your life. But yeah, in case my earlier rants didn’t bear this out, lots of these drugs ARE dangerous and you need to know what you’re doing. Or have the money to get a Dr to look over you and your levels when you’re doing it (which is what I did for most of my time using them). Playing guinea pig is never a good idea.
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 08:58:49
I agree. I am fortunate that my disease started late enough that I built up a good sum of net worth and can afford to pay whatever I need to get at a doctor. I am aware that specialists cost a lot of money. Yes my $350 per month insurance helps pay. But I pay a lot out of pocket too and I think my health is far more important than driving a show off car or buying a house. These drugs are dangerous if not monitored. So I go every few months for a checkup. I’m lucky that my hair did not fall out (I heard that was a potential).
Back in 1982 when I was 23 I read Durk Pearson’s and Sandy Shaw’s book “Life Extension” - odd for a young man to read it. But I was reading Heinlein books also at the time and wanted to “live forever” (ha). “Life Extension” impressed on me the disclaimer (many times throughout the book) that if you do not have medical supervision of the changes on your biochemistry of these supplements, you are a DAMN FOOL.
Around those days a 27 year old body builder friend of my sister’s died of a heart attack. The ramifications (after earlier health issues) from taking steroids unsupervised.
I would not be taking synthroid if my doctors did not urge me to take it.
Comment by SUGuy
2012-07-28 09:26:52
The bodybuilding with drugs just makes you look good. But in order to have an internally healthy body cardio types of activities are the best. Having been in the chemical field all my life I have come to the conclusion there is no such thing as a health chemical. Even Sodium Chloride which we consume every day is unhealthy.
Just my 2 cents
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 09:48:16
You have to have a mixture of both weight resistance and cardio. Your own individual biochemistry works best with a particular amount (60/40? 40/60?).
I see people every day in the weight room that look the same. I see one obvious steroid type. He preens in front of a mirror after his workout. Ironically around the corner from that mirror is a posted warning about steroid usages.
For most of us, keeping the chiseled look is a brass ring that might be caught temporarily. Or for many years (Jack LaLanne) if the biochemistry is good.
I do think the combination of a Mediterranean diet (mostly fresh fruits and vegetables, fish, and eggs), at least 7 hours of sleep a night (to help the body produce HGH) and smart body building and following the advice of the prescribed drugs and getting the regular specialist checkups and blood work is the best way to optimize your own biochemistry.
“He preens in front of a mirror after his workout.”
That’s why I will never, ever use steroids. My body is fine — not quite as muscular as I would like, not quite as slender, but good enough for me to feel OK about my body image.
I’m just not a preener.
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 14:09:53
LOL. Funny thing is that he spends ten minutes preening while his young girlfriend waits for him patiently at the juice bar. She’s done and ready to go before him!
“The thing they don’t realize, those people they are trying to imitate, almost without exception, have a huge pharmacological advantage over them, they are taking a cocktail of drugs that helps them look the way they want to.”
I want to look like Edward Scissorhands, what kinda drugs did he take?
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Comment by Overtaxed
2012-07-28 08:40:44
“I want to look like Edward Scissorhands, what kinda drugs did he take?”
Meth..
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 09:21:12
LOL
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-07-28 09:56:37
anyone been out with those heavy duty female bodybuilders?
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2012-07-28 12:11:25
“anyone been out with those heavy duty female bodybuilders?”
I admire a woman with muscle tone, but those steroid-physique babes gross me out. I’d rather look at a grizzly bear…
Comment by mikeinbend
2012-07-28 19:52:48
Went out with an open ocean swimmer. 6 miles to 10 miles, no wetsuit, 59 degree water the norm. SC to Capitola, Goleta to SB, etc.
Men would drop like flies from those races with hypothermia. Stroke count would drop and their paddler would have to pull them from the race. Iron man types with the corresponding body fat %. Only dudes that seemed to do alright had guts on them. Seems cool water makes a body want to store fat.
Didn’t exactly make her a skinny gal, but from behind you would have thought “wouldn’t I like to have those shoulders” (If you were a dude on roids). Girl was chiseled!
Like my current wife would say, all those years ago when they sold head to head at Farmers Market, “wouldn’t want to encounter her in a dark alley” and I would counter, “she would come in handy in a rip current, though!”
Romney’s problem with the Brits was entirely self-inflicted. Someone asked him how he thought the preparations were going and he thought they were actually interested in his opinion. They weren’t. He was being given an opportunity to give his hosts a polite complement. He blew it.
An interview on foreign soil as a presidential candidate isn’t the same thing as a staff business meeting.
That level of obliviousness of your audience is a big problem for a politician and a candidate. I’m surprised his staff hasn’t managed to educate him on this one yet. He must be very resistant to the concept. It does not bode well for any future skill as diplomat.
If a diplomat is a man who’s sent abroad to lie for his country, is a politician a man who lies to his electorate? To be fair to Romney I don’t think he’s quite got a handle on this lying thing.
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Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-07-28 08:49:44
He does make the effort regularly, though. He’ll get better at it.
But don’t you think his audience were primarily Americans? The security, military type conservatives he was reaching out to but backfired on him. One thing though, Olympics are mania, no dissent or questioning is allowed in this type of situation. So much national pride is involved here. He should know this because he says he “saved” SLC Olympics. May be he never got out of the boardroom when he was managing SLC.
OT, had a date last nite and ended up staying home watching a tape delayed ceremony. What a lame show. NHS? Come on, it was a propaganda attempt that even Chinese could not have pulled it off. Lame, Lame, lame…….
Liked the costumes from Asian and African countries. Had to give it to the African Nations. The colors, styles and wide cheerful smiles, what’s else to say? Much respect.
His audience is Americans, but the item for consumption was foreign people admiring him and looking like they would want to work with him (or roll over for him) as the American president. Stories about how his insults were the one thing that could unite Londoners in support of the games and headlines about “Mitt the Twit” don’t send that image.
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Comment by Jim A
2012-07-28 14:17:21
Well the idea MIGHT have been to get a reputation as somebody who “speaks truth to power” and can take “tough, unpopular stances,” in exactly the way that a politician CAN’T when talking about domestic policy. So he can get is “tough guy,” cred by saying “you’re doing a poopy job,” to foreigners who “don’t matter,” rather than, say detailing the cuts in domestic spending he’d make to pay for all the tax cuts that he’s promised.
‘Well the idea MIGHT have been to get a reputation as somebody who “speaks truth to power”…’
I’ll believe that the day he stops trash talking Obama and starts laying out in detail his plans for dealing with abortion, gay marriage, Social Security, future U.S. military involvement overseas, resolving the housing crisis, including shutdowns of the GSEs and eliminating the mortgage interest deduction, breaking up too-big-to-fail banks, bringing back U.S. employment, etc etc etc.
So he can get is “tough guy,” cred by saying “you’re doing a poopy job,” to foreigners who “don’t matter,
Being panned by the Brits is a badge of honor amongst his voters, much like being booed by the NAACP.
He’ll be more careful with Israel, though. The neocons and the born-agains like Israel.
Comment by Jim A
2012-07-28 14:45:31
Oh I think that he badly misjudged things. But other than perhaps forcing him to softpeddle the “I fixed the Salt Lake City Olympics, I can fix the economy,” message I don’t think it will matter much.
I loved how the Brits referred to the 2002 SLC Winter Olympics as occurring “in the middle of nowhere.” SLC is a lovely town, but compared to London — come on! (This incident also reminds me of when Bryant Gumbel referred to BYU’s opponents as “Bo Diddley Tech” — LOLOLOLOL!!!)
Good leaders listen to the experts who work for them. There is no way that he wasn’t warned that he couldn’t trash talk the London Olympics. His handlers may not have gotten everything perfect, but his mistakes in London were huge. Trash talking their preparations for the games is the most visible one. Publicly talking about a meeting with MI6 is much worse.
It was pretty much baked in the cake that the economy is slowing so rapidly that the Federal Reserve will have to come to the rescue, possibly as soon as its FOMC meeting next week. But not so fast.
…although the recovery is the second slowest from a recession in the post-war era, it has been somewhat stronger than previously thought, and the stumble in the first half of this year was not quite as severe as has been thought. That’s certainly good news.
This lowers the odds that the Fed will feel the need to come to the rescue with more stimulus, the hope that has been a major driving force for the market in the face of continuing dismal economic reports, tumbling corporate earnings, and downbeat warnings from some of the world’s largest transportation and industrial companies.
Meanwhile in Europe, on Thursday the president of the European Central Bank triggered a big rally in global markets with just a few words. Taking the microphone at an investment conference he said, “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me it will be enough.”
Global markets immediately took off in strong rallies, ignoring the addition of still more bad news in individual economic reports like home sales, business spending, and crumbling corporate earnings in Europe and the U.S.
The eurozone debt crisis has been weighing on global confidence for more than two years now. The statement immediately raised hopes that the ECB is preparing to undertake a QE2 type bond-buying program similar to that undertaken by the Federal Reserve in the U.S. in 2010, which served to at least temporarily re-stimulate the U.S. economy from its 2010 stumble.
…
A bull market driven by what? Maybe lots of OPM desperately looking for a decent return, coupled with lots of money managers desperately looking for money to manage?
People who structure their lives during a high-return world will find themselves stranded when the world shifts into a low-return mode. Promises that were made then will be tough to keep now.
So what is one to do? Chase the latest fad? Chase whatever it is that goes up in price? If enough people do this then prices are sure to rise and - presto! - you have before you a bull market.
But IMO a bull market fueled by times that are wonderful is a different type of bull market than one fueled by times that are tough.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks surged on Friday, driving the S&P 500 to its highest close since May 3 as hopes increased that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may provide further stimulus.
Taken together, the S&P 500’s two-day move was its biggest since December, driven by optimism that central banks will ride to the rescue with more aid for the world economy. The S&P 500 rose 3.6 percent in those two days, and the moves come before key meetings of both the Fed and the ECB next week.
…
I dunno but staffing companies are mopping up earnings left and right. Temp jobs are king. Usually temp jobs boom in recoveries. But some pundits think the hiring of temps is a long term phenomena. Manpower, Robert Half, KForce, and my company (I don’t want to name it) are doing very well. Not four quarters of record earnings. Try over eight quarters of record earnings!
The fundamentals are there. Sometimes the stock price does not reflect the earnings. Those are times smart people buy. I buy my company stock in a purchase plan. Though nowadays I save more cash than buy stocks.
If Obama is re-elected, it would be great for my staffing company. It likes communist health care.
p.s. I might do an Aladinsane deal in a few years, cash out my winnings, and join the pirate libertine startup boat planned 12 miles offshore of California to do R&D for my project.
There used to be gambling ships anchored beyond the three-mile-limit off of Southern California in the Forties that were put out of business by the state.
Because the start up boat will be twelve miles out does not guarantee that it won’t be messed with; One stroke of a pen will do the trick.
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Comment by combotechie
2012-07-28 09:14:23
Anyone here remember the TV series “Mr. Lucky”?
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 09:19:16
I get it. But I think the State will be known as the big bad wolf if it crushes a ship full of nerds who are innocently creating technology in their own legal non-country outside any nation.
There are plenty of tech nerds who are very libertarian already and it’s really been that way for decades. Most engineers I know are against the government meddling in any business. Out of every 20 engineers I have ever known in various places coast to coast, one would want big government nanny state.
Comment by combotechie
2012-07-28 09:59:21
“But I think the State will be known as the big bad wolf if it crushes a ship full of nerds who are innocently creating technology in their own legal non-country outside any nation.”
You are talking about off the coast of California, right? California, a state desperate for money?
A state governed by a group of incompetent fools who drove it into a state desperate for money?
The - what? - the eighth largest economy on the planet driven to become an economy desperate for money?
And you expect rational behavior?
Comment by polly
2012-07-28 10:08:41
“Most engineers I know are against the government meddling in any business.”
OK. The big federal government will be delighted to stop enforcing patent rights.
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 10:19:21
The cost of no enforceable patents may be well worth bearing in exchange for more economic freedom offshore. The equations are changing more and more for people to want to let go of these government er, “services” in the quest for liberty.
Comment by combotechie
2012-07-28 10:30:05
Hmmmm … if a group of pirates were to decide to storm this nation-less ship who would be there to stop them?
Comment by In Colorado
2012-07-28 10:38:43
The cost of no enforceable patents may be well worth bearing in exchange for more economic freedom offshore.
And once corporate America/China/Japan/Korea/Germany/France/etc. quickly reverse engineer your inventions, then what?
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 10:40:00
Tell me 1) why would pirates storm the ship and 2) if you think that the engineers who work there would actually store gold or other wealth on the same ship instead of move it to other countries such as Belize.
The wealth would mostly be in the brains of those people. Tell me how a pirate will store the contents of those brains. There would be little to steal otherwise.
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-07-28 10:59:04
They might just torpedo your ass, on General Principle.
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-07-28 11:10:35
“Most of the engineers I know are against the government meddling in any business”
Seeing as how you are a contractor working for the government, I’m guessing most of the engineers you know are probably in the same boat.
Which makes your statement hilarious. They don’t seem to mind “government meddling” when it comes to who writes their paychecks.
Comment by combotechie
2012-07-28 11:46:38
“The wealth would mostly be in the brains of those people.”
Steal the people and at the same time you steal the people’s wealthy brains.
No mean feat if there is nobody around commited to stopping it.
Comment by combotechie
2012-07-28 12:09:26
“1. Why would pirates storm the ship?”
Same reason Somalians do? Because they can?
“Tell me how a pirate will store the contents of those brains.”
By keeping them in the skulls of the people they whisk off the ship. If their price of keeping the skulls intact are not met by those who care then the skulls get bashed in.
“Because the start up boat will be twelve miles out does not guarantee that it won’t be messed with; One stroke of a pen will do the trick.”
California acts as though it owns the ocean at least out to the 200 mile U.S. territorial limit, if not beyond…
Comment by combotechie
2012-07-28 13:49:15
One should reasonably expect a certain human action if the perceived risk/reward ratio favors such an action.
The Somalii pirates continue doing what they are doing because the risk/reward ratio favors them. If you want to stop them being pirates then you need to alter the risk/reward ratio. Same principle applies to the highly lucrative drug trade.
If there is little risk to storming a nationless ship and at the same time there is some reward for doing so (and the reward doesn’t have to be all that large, it just has to be somewhat larger than the risk) then the ship is destined to be stormed.
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 14:05:22
X-GSFixer.
Time to whip out my Lew Rockwell column once again. The government commands a monopoly on technology jobs. If I do not work then I do not improve myself and build up enough wealth to overcome it.
But here goes for another one of you with memories the lifespan of a common house fly:
I am sure I will have to repost this more for lames like Alpha, Polly, and other fellow nanny staters when they forget within the next 12 days (lifespan of a common house fly)
“If there is little risk to storming a nationless ship and at the same time there is some reward for doing so (and the reward doesn’t have to be all that large, it just has to be somewhat larger than the risk) then the ship is destined to be stormed.”
The same logic explains why Megabanksters routinely commit crimes with multi-trillion dollar payoffs at a cost of the occasional multi-million dollar wrist slap.
Barclays Plc (BARC), the British lender fined for rigging Libor, apologized for its role in the scandal as it posted first-half profit that beat analysts’ estimates.
Pretax profit excluding one-time items rose 13 percent to 4.23 billion pounds ($6.6 billion), the London-based bank said in a statement today. That beat the 3.9 billion-pound median prediction of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
“We are sorry for what has happened,” Chairman Marcus Agius said in the statement. “However, our leadership continues to focus on the delivery of our financial performance targets.”
Barclays’s attempts to put its regulatory troubles behind it were complicated today as it said four employees, including Finance Director Chris Lucas, are being probed over the disclosure of fees related to the bank’s fundraising in 2008. The lender, whose three top executives stepped down after the bank fined a record 290 million pounds last month for Libor- rigging, also disclosed it was the target of more lawsuits in the U.S. related to the scandal.
…
Comment by combotechie
2012-07-28 14:46:55
Yep. Make the perceived risk outweigh the perceived reward and you’ll get some behavioral changes.
(Note the use of the word “perceived”).
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-07-28 14:50:35
It wouldn’t take pirates, the first big storm to hit the ship they’d be calling the nanny state, for “HELP!!!”
Probably why they want to be so close to shore.
And I do find it amusing and revealing that they’re following in the same footsteps as the scientologists. Birds of a feather…
Comment by josemanolo
2012-07-28 20:56:20
bil, this is a joke right? otherwise you are just revealing yourself very eloquently.
“tell me 1) why would pirates storm the ship and 2) if you think that the engineers who work there would actually store gold or other wealth on the same ship instead of move it to other countries such as Belize.
the wealth would mostly be in the brains of those people. Tell me how a pirate will store the contents of those brains. There would be little to steal otherwise.”
Something that crossed my mind with this offshore platform is that it has to be incredibly expensive to build and operate. Wouldn’t it be more cost effective to get H1-B visas for those foreign geniuses, who would probably be a lot happier living in Silly Valley than on some glorified oil derrick?
The government commands a monopoly on technology jobs.
Quit whining and grasping at empty justifications Bill in LA.
You don’t walk the walk on your empty dogma. You’ve proved it by working for the government, by working on military stuff that you say is unconstitutional and in now whining that you’re now somehow a “victim” and that you “had no choice”.
You’ve proved by you life choices that your “libertarianism” is hot air.
Reread my post that with “free” health care (communist health care), there are always people on the unfortunate side of the gun.
You are for initiation of force (you look for security and prefer giving up other people’s freedoms for your security).
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Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 09:09:26
My company is taking advantage of staffing health care jobs with the enormous bureaucracy coming up. Potentially 30 million more people getting health care.
We are headed down the road to serfdom. But if I’m lucky and get a $1 million gain from my health care staffing stock, I’m going see if it’s worthwhile to become a part time resident of another country but spend 183 consecutive days in the U.S. Don’t know which country though. Preference is English-speaking.
I am watchful of the economic freedom index put out by the Heritage Foundation and the order of most free starts with Hong Kong, followed by Singapore, Australia, then New Zealand and then Switzerland.
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2012-07-28 09:30:05
but spend 183 consecutive days in the U.S.
What’s the reason for that very-specific number, Bill? Tax implications?
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 09:40:05
You must spend at least six consecutive months in the U.S. to retain U.S. citizenship. 183 days is the actual minimum.
To be super cautious, it’s a smart thing to have international addresses and be multi national. I think technology is available now to make multi national citizenship possible for most professional people.
I have had this tech idea since the late 1990s that only became more and more feasible with new software technology the last few years and it will basically free us from the nation state. We need it now more than ever. It’s a double boon for me because I’m a radical libertarian at heart and I can also make money off of it. But my job and my daily fitness rituals take a big bite out of my time!
Comment by jbunniii
2012-07-28 09:47:26
Hong Kong, followed by Singapore, Australia, then New Zealand and then Switzerland
Interestingly, all five of those countries have universal health care, if this Wikipedia page is correct:
Are you sure that it is citizenship and not residency that requires 183 days in the USA. So far as I know, the US does not strip citizenship for being out of the country that long. You might want to check out Gilbraltar or the Jersey Islands a places to set up a second home. I seem to remember favourable tax laws and minimal residency requirements for those places but I haven’t looked at them in detail.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-07-28 10:43:05
Interestingly, all five of those countries have universal health care, if this Wikipedia page is correct
Everybody has Universal Healthcare, except for the USA.
BiLA just doesn’t want to pay taxes. Hence his pining to write software while living on an oversized drilling platform.
I suppose that if that sucker sinks in a nasty storm he won’t be expecting the US Coast Guard to come to his rescue either.
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-07-28 10:45:22
I guess I’m a communist then, if it means that I don’t believe in all of this Randian/Libertarian/Free market dogma you are pushing.
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-07-28 14:01:26
Well the problem with you HBB communists is that you won’t stop for socialized health care. You will want more socialism beyond that. It has to stop somewhere. The road to serfdom is when the weak-brained prefer security to allowing other people to live freedom peacefully.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-07-28 16:49:35
Well the problem with you HBB communists is that you won’t stop for socialized health care.
The problem with most “Libertarians” is they’re all hot air - all hat and no cattle.
I have worked in many shops, including one quasi-government and another full-government. I’ve always marveled at the ranks of government employees who fashion themselves as “libertarian.” Something about that doesn’t fit…
Comment by josemanolo
2012-07-28 21:02:33
bil please don’t go. we need you here then.
“The road to serfdom is when the weak-brained prefer security to allowing other people to live freedom peacefully.”
“Temp jobs are king. Usually temp jobs boom in recoveries.”
They also boom after Six Sigma-driven numbers forecast their own false reality. Their numbers say one thing (such as “Less”) and so the numbers are adjusted accordingly.
Later on the Real World numbers assert themselves and these numbers say “Not Enough - We Need More”, and so “Less” loses its sway and ends up being replaced by “More”.
“More” means more hiring - more hiring includes temps. And temps - as opposed to permanents - will be the mode of hiring until upper management “gets it” and realizes that - deep down - Six Sigma sucks and the Six Sigma numbers also suck. It’s then that the permanents will be hired (that’s if the company can remain in business).
“I agree with Ben’s comment about the storm that’s on it’s way. It’s global in scope. I’ve seen it up close in 18+ countries.”
The thing is, this storm has been on the horizon for the last 10 years now. In 2008 it looked like the storm was finally upon us only for central bankers to push it away with ultra low interest rates.
Its clear now that politicians will do whatever it takes to avoid a bubble collapse. At this point I know some of you will be thinking “Politicians can do what they like but financial gravity will win in the end”, but I’m not so sure. They can legislate cram-downs or they can halt or slow to a trickle forclosures, and if this makes the banks insolvent they can nationalize the banks if necessary - that’s already happened in the UK for example and in other places like China and India the banks have always been state owned.
“In 2008 it looked like the storm was finally upon us only for central bankers to push it away with ultra low interest rates.”
Not sure exactly which ’storm’ you are talking about, but U.S. housing prices cratered during and after 2008. I see nothing to prevent this from happening in due time the same way, or worse, in Australia, China, Canada and India.
Further, based on global financial contagion currently spilling out of the Eurozone, I expect these future national housing bubble collapses to inflict severe economic disruption on other nations’ economies.
According to this article from this past week, U.S. home prices have been dropping for five years (2012 - 5 = 2007), but have now bottomed out. So apparently the storm you suggested is still offshore has already inflicted lots of damage to the “Ownership Society” portion of the U.S. household sector.
Housing market bottoms; first price increase in 5 years: Zillow
New homes under construction and for sale in Alhambra. Zillow says the housing market has bottomed, with prices making their first year-over-year increase since 2007. (Frederic J. Brown / AFP / Getty Images / July 24, 2012)
July 24, 2012, 10:03 a.m.
Housing prices appear to have bottomed, posting their first year-over-year increase since 2007 and fueling more talk of a real estate recovery – at least according to real estate site Zillow.
The site’s second-quarter report shows nationwide home values inching up 0.2% from the same quarter in 2011 to a median of $149,300. On a monthly basis, prices have been rising for four straight months.
Nearly a third of individual metro areas saw prices rise; in Phoenix alone, homes were worth 12.1% more compared to a year ago, according to Zillow.
“The housing recovery is holding together despite lower-than-expected job growth, indicating that it has some organic strength of its own,” Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said in a statement.
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Not sure exactly which ’storm’ you are talking about, but U.S. housing prices cratered during and after 2008.
Who cares, when that $300k house (at 8-9% financing) used to cost $800k but now costs $600k?
I used to be one of the “wait until rates go up” types. I’ve since abandoned that after observing the Japanese model. That’s not to say the whole thing worldwide won’t collapse, but it’s pretty clear there is zero motivation to take any medicine.
Who cares, when that $300k house (at 8-9% financing) used to cost $800k but now costs $600k?
+1, sleepless. Prices are still ridiculous in Seattle; a 30% downturn did not go anywhere near taking things back to where they were before the insanity hit.
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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-07-28 13:39:41
And I’ll take it a step further to say that most of us on the HBB are in our 30s - 50s, so if any correction back to pre-bubble pricing occurs in the next 1-5 years, great (assuming a correction that fast means one still has a job). I can’t control it but, selfishly speaking, I don’t want to wait another 15-20 years for a correction. It’s already been almost nine (NINE!) years since the inception of this blog.
‘Politicians can do what they like but financial gravity will win in the end”, but I’m not so sure’
First, I don’t care one person in world even hears what I think. It doesn’t change a thing for me.
Second, as usual, it’s already here and most people ignore it:
‘ When the Census Bureau this month released a new measure of poverty, meant to better count disposable income, it began altering the portrait of national need. Perhaps the most startling differences between the old measure and the new involves data the government has not yet published, showing 51 million people with incomes less than 50 percent above the poverty line. That number of Americans is 76 percent higher than the official account, published in September. All told, that places 100 million people — one in three Americans — either in poverty or in the fretful zone just above it.’
‘After a lost decade of flat wages and the worst downturn since the Great Depression, the findings can be thought of as putting numbers to the bleak national mood — quantifying the expressions of unease erupting in protests and political swings. They convey levels of economic stress sharply felt but until now hard to measure.’
You can post evidence about how poor everyone is getting these days, and I can post evidence about how far U.S. housing prices have dropped since 2007, and we will still have posters here pretending nothing has changed in the past five years.
It’s like the financial press and how people view the world. I see stuff like ’stocks soar on stimulus hopes’ or QE3′. Not rising profits, or hiring, but hand-outs or money printing. (The stock market is a casino anyway).
‘Stocks took off at the end of the week, drawn by the allure of a helping hand from the world’s two most powerful central banks. Traders are unlikely to resist those charms again next week.’
Or like this week, the Euro is gonna be saved by, printing more Euros! That’s like saving Facebook by creating more Facebook shares. But it passes for ‘optimism’ these days. I’m an optimist too, but not in the rah-rah way.
IMO, one has to look at things critically. When I first arrived in Arizona in 2003, I asked everyone I met where they were from. I was surprised when about half told me California, and most of those had moved in the past few years. They would go on about how great the weather was, the real estate market was booming, etc. I’d always follow that with, why did you leave? Different reasons of course, but it was clear that the golden boom wasn’t what it seemed. That’s just one example of how all the headlines, the so-called common knowledge can be completely wrong.
If China is this economic juggernaut, why are they building ghost cities? Bullet trains to nowhere? Why are their rich pouring money into houses all over the world? And if this perception on China is so wrong, what other things about this global economy are out of whack too?
“Not rising profits, or hiring, but hand-outs or money printing…”
= unsustainable bear market rally — enjoy picking up the nickels right up until the steamroller catches up to you!
Comment by shendi
2012-07-28 08:51:27
Very good questions, especially about China, Ben.
My thinking is that pseudo capitalism in China has rewarded those connected to the top polit bureau (mainly families). These people have never had so much money come their way. And knowing that these ill gotten gains are not long lasting, Chinese are spending their IGGs everywhere other than China in the one thing that they know - real estate.
If you look at India, the populace have the largest holdings of gold - this built over centuries of habit - I cannot fathom why despite the invasions from Persian kings to ransack the Indian temples and take away the gold (Mohammed of Gazni - came in 17 times apparently, but nobody learned). Anyway, during the recent craze starting in 2005, regular people went away from gold and into real estate. Talk about global brainwashing.
Now in two of the most populous (and extremely poor) countries, the wealth disparity is growing rapidly: In china we see people parking their money in western democracies. In India - I don’t know what is happening - apparently, there are capital controls and people cannot move money away.
The question that begets your point is: where are the rich Americans, Europeans parking their money? See the poor are relatively the same all over the globe - looking for basic necessities to live. If there is a jubilee all over (China/ US) - it is the rich that have the most to lose. So I think the rich chinese with their IGGs are fleeing to places where they think that they can get by. In the end if they have housing and live unobtrusive lives, it may be hard for their native investigators to come after all of them.
How to view these things and what might happen is tricky. There is a lot of manufacturing, etc going on in China for instance. But in the 70’s and 80’s, there was a lot of oil and gas produced in Texas and the other oil states. Oil plummeted, and real estate proved to be in a bubble. Would the RE bubble have popped if oil had stayed high indefinitely? Yes, and here’s why; the oil drop exposed rampant corruption and speculation at the S&L’s and banks. The overbuilding, it was just waiting to crash, but masked by the oil boom. Before it collapsed, the press reported the S&L’s were making everyone around them rich. We all know what a delusion that turned out to be.
So if China isn’t a juggernaut, what is it? How much of what we see and read will fall away?
Similarly, as I came to suspect California wasn’t the land of milk and honey a few years ago, I wondered what it really was. And how it’s all playing out couldn’t have been foreseen perfectly, IMO. So we’ll just have to wait and see. But I have always maintained that the economic pain will probably be in proportion to the level of speculation & or corruption, no matter what part of the global mania you examine. Now I have to add, the economic pain also rises with efforts to forestall the correction.
Comment by shendi
2012-07-28 12:33:53
“rampant corruption and speculation at the S&L’s and banks.”
This is true for wall street and politics. Only the majority of the public is not aware of it. The voting public themselves are polarized in rooting for their own interest, however misguided it may seem to others. I think essentially this is “survival of the fittest” mode. Unless the jobs scenario changes there will be simply not enough demand for housing.
Talking about jobs: I am completely at a loss to figure out where these can come from. Technology? Medicine? Services? Food? Entertainment? IMHO, we are peak everything from all the above and housing, commodities. The world is over 7 billion people - this was supposed to be the limit, but is not - there is plenty of labor, but not enough living-wage jobs that can sustain aging countries. The pain will have to come to rebalance the economy here and elsewhere. It will be severe no doubt. The question is really when will it come. I am thinking the next 3-4 years.
Comment by Jim A
2012-07-28 14:42:05
It’s the anticipation of financial asset inflation. Unlike higher profits leading to higher dividends, higher asset prices are a zero sum game. Kind of like house prices. For every extra dollar the seller receives because of higher prices, the buyer has to pay an extra dollar to receive the benefits of ownership. (whether that benefit is housing, future dividends, or future price appreciation). This is why it is a FUNDAMENTAL mistake to use the stock market as a sort of barometer for how the economy is doing. The pricing is dominated by speculation of future asset prices, not the underlying profitability of companies.
Political arguments aside, there are certain Eddie-tard HBB posters spouting the “wait time at Applebee’s” barometer of the alleged health of the economy.
There is another economy outside of their lily-white, upper middle class, suburban bubble that is invisible to them. Ask anyone who was laid off after the age of 50 how the “recovery” is working out for them.
This is an unreliable indicator, as the wait time at Applebee’s could go up if those who used to go to fine restaurants can no longer afford them, and now go to cheap franchises instead.
We see this in our area — Miguel’s Cocina is booming, since it replaced the far more upscale Zócalo. To their credit, Brigantine Restaurants adapted their dining concept to the economic times we live in.
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Comment by goon squad
2012-07-28 08:03:35
I am referring to an attempted RV purchase that was allegedly thwarted by other buyers showing up minutes earlier. A true Eddie-tard anecdote if there ever was one…
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-07-28 08:36:47
I think we are all underestimating the amount of free cash that’s available when millions dont pay a mortgage or rent.
Comment by combotechie
2012-07-28 08:39:46
I notice a lot of unused RV inventory stashed in driveways and backyards here in So. Cal
(lots of boats too). If I were in the market for an RV (or a boat) I’d do a bit of knocking on doors; Maybe I’d uncover an RV that would be offered to me for a price that approaches free.
People get stuck in inertia; There are things they want to do, need to do, (such as get rid of the RV or the boat) but they never quite get around to doing it. Show up and make an offer and maybe you can strike a deal that would be of benfit to both of you.
The funny thing about Eddie/Smithers is that while he hates Obama with a passion for being a poor president (maybe not as much as banana and our resident NY DJ, but he doesn’t like the “socialist” prez) he insists that everything is great and people have money to spend. So does “socialism” work or not?
THURSDAY’S BOND market rally continued yesterday, with Spanish and Italian bond yields continuing to fall as German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president François Hollande gave a joint commitment to safeguard the euro.
Ireland also took part in the general bond market rally, which was fuelled by market expectation of future bond-buying by the ECB, signalled by comments from the central bank chief, Mario Draghi.
The new 2017 bond issued by the NTMA on Thursday at a yield of 5.9 per cent was yesterday evening trading at 5.75 per cent.
Peter Cosgrave of Dolmen Securities in Dublin said that while the fall in yields showed “continued interest” in Irish bonds, the strengthening of Irish bonds was also symptomatic of the rally in bond markets generally.
Ten-year Spanish debt was trading at 6.75 per cent, having hit a euro-era high of 7.75 per cent on Wednesday.
Italian government debt of the same maturity fell to 5.96 per cent yesterday evening.
In a joint statement yesterday, the French and German leaders said their countries were “bound by the deepest duty” to keep the euro area intact.
…
My former victim DBLL who collected $45,800 in rent without making a mortgage payment over the last 2 1/2 years while recieving a workout in the middle of that time frame which allowed him to collect the other half of the $45k has put “his” house up for a short sale.
I guess the bank just wasn`t willing to give him another chance. What was that IRS rat link again?
One of these days, a serial bottom caller is going to get this right. After that, he will never let us hear the end of it about his successful bottom call. I personally expect to see a material increase in transactions volume, with a price bottom following some time later, before I am whatsoever convinced a bottom is in place. This will only be visible through the rear-view mirror, and we are not there yet, particularly given the mountain of homes currently in default that will take years for the market to work through.
–Website Zillow says home values have hit bottom and are on the rise
–Slight gain in second quarter marks first annual increase since 2007
–Zillow predicts a 1.1% increase in home values over the next year
By Amy Hoak
CHICAGO–National home values have hit bottom and are on the rise, the real-estate website Zillow reported in a news release on Tuesday.
“After four months with rising home values and increasingly positive forecast data, it seems clear that the country has hit a bottom in home values,” Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said in a news release. “The housing recovery is holding together despite lower-than-expected job growth, indicating that it has some organic strength of its own.”
Values of U.S. homes rose 0.2% in the second quarter, compared with the same time period a year ago, marking the first annual increase in values since 2007, Zillow reported.
Phoenix had the largest home-value gain; values were up 12.1% there during the second quarter, compared with the same period last year. All told, values rose in 53 of the 167 markets covered in Zillow’s Real Estate Market Reports, which is aggregated from public sources.
Moreover, Zillow predicted a 1.1% increase in home values over the next year. Values are expected to rise in 67 of the 156 markets in Zillow’s Home Value Forecast, which uses data and market conditions to predict home values.
“Of course, there is still some risk as we look down the foreclosure pipeline and see foreclosure starts picking up. This will translate into more homes on the market by the end of the year, but we think demand will rise to absorb that, particularly in markets where there are acute inventory shortages now,” Humphries said. “Looking forward, we expect home values to remain relatively flat as the market works through a backlog of foreclosures and high rates of negative equity.”
Zillow reported that 5.8 out of every 10,000 homes were lost to foreclosure in June, down from 7.9 of every 10,000 homes lost in January. But the number of foreclosures is expected to increase, based on a pickup in foreclosure starts since the completion of the National Foreclosure Settlement, the company said in the release.
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P-bear, what do you think of my idea that we’re bouncing along the bottom, as inventory is bled out? And that different types of homes in different areas are bottoming at different times?
Calling a bottom in the US now is like saying that a broken clock is always right — because it’s always that time somewhere in the world.
Exactly. The initial bubble burst in places like Florida, California and Arizona. The bubble we are seeing now is nationwide, because incomes are falling faster than house prices.
For better or worse, our government/corporations have decided to equalize middle class pay and benefits in the US and China.
Maybe it would be more helpful to determine the price of homes considering min wage as the affordability average
My experience in Mexico in the 70’s and early 80’s was that housing remained utterly unaffordable for the working class during that period. If you owned a condo or a house you were either a white collar professional (condo) or business owner/member of the managerial class (house). Everyone else either rented a hovel, or squatted on federally owned land in the ubiquitous cardboard shacks.
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Comment by GrizzlyBear
2012-07-28 14:36:24
“Everyone else either rented a hovel, or squatted on federally owned land in the ubiquitous cardboard shacks.”
If you tried that here you would be arrested, and your cardboard shack razed.
Too many extraordinary factors are currently in play, including the lowest long-term rates on record, massive infusions of federally-guaranteed loanable funds from the defunct GSEs and the FHA, and a very slow pace of foreclosing on defaulted mortgages, an unresolved Eurozone debt crisis which threatens to throw the entire Westernized world back into recession, a looming U.S. fiscal cliff, and a persistently high U.S. unemployment rate which is actually worse than it looks, due to a record number of working age Americans who have dropped out of the labor force, for me to be convinced a sustainable bottom is in place.
“And that different types of homes in different areas are bottoming at different times?”
That I can agree with more easily. Even here in San Diego, we have areas where prices dropped by well over 50% compared to others (like ours) where the declines were nowhere near as steep.
Yeah, I think that different areas and market segments have become so divergent that looking calling “The” bottom is fruitless exercise. But it is certainly the case that in many markets the “hidden inventory” is being let out in a dribble with the hope that prices will not continue further downward. Once prices go up a little, more inventory appears.
‘But it is certainly the case that in many markets the “hidden inventory” is being let out in a dribble with the hope that prices will not continue further downward.’
It’s also the case that baby boomers waiting ‘until prices come back’ will eventually find themselves forced to put homes on the market that no longer make sense for them to live in, and this fundamentally-driven supply deluge will overwhelm lender manipulation of shadow inventory.
Some commentators are not so sure a bottom is in, but are entirely certain prices will soon “come back,” I guess since California real estate always goes up, in the long run.
Never mind Japan’s twenty-year-long counter example…
A construction worker on the top of a home under construction at a new housing development on in Petaluma, California. If we have hit bottom, we may start seeing more of this kind of activity.
Zillow, the online real estate service, has called a bottom for the U.S. housing market. Literally. This is from today’s release:
Home values in the United States have reached a bottom. The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) rose on an annual basis for the first time since 2007, increasing 0.2 percent year-over-year to $149,300, according to Zillow’s second quarter Real Estate Market Reports. Values have risen for four consecutive months.
A rise of 0.2 percent may not be terribly significant, so take this all with a healthy grain of salt — and an awareness that Zillow, as Chicago Now’s Gary Lucido points out, indexes home values based on its own metrics, rather than on actual sales, as does the important Case-Shiller index*.
Case-Shiller for May comes out next week, so you can look at Zillow’s pronouncement and say, “Hmmm…interesting timing!” And you’d be on to something, because Case-Shiller has been signalling at least the formation of a bottom in U.S. housing prices for a few months now.
Los Angeles, for example, is working its way back to 2011 levels.
But it’s absolutely critical to remember that a bottom isn’t the same thing as a restoration of an upward price trend. As I wrote back in September, when the home-price situation looked much more precarious, “[i]n terms of making homeowning into a financially beneficially proposition again, Southland residents are going to have to think long-term. Very long-term.”
Why? Because the hitting bottom still means you have to crawl out of the cavern. So if we do see prices in Southern California and elsewhere begin to stabilize and ascend, we will then commence the potentially lengthy process of waiting for prices to recover to previous levels. That could take several years.
* BwaHaHAhAHAAHAHAHAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
Went to a Trustee Sale yesterday. The flipper (regulars known as “heavy hitters”/were a-holes) were taken up in price by the Trustee Rep bidding for the Beneficiary. High price paid at auction plus redo, translates to $100K-$150K upswing in prices around here. Marginal neighborhoods are going for $425K-$450K. A few flips are selling, which gets the slum homeowners to increase their price. Bubblicious times in Ventura County (So Ca).
The BKs on the foreclosure subscription website are becoming the norm. It’s the new modification replacement.
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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2012-07-28 13:23:45
The BKs on the foreclosure subscription website are becoming the norm. It’s the new modification replacement.
BK is the modification that actually works…
Comment by Awaiting
2012-07-28 16:57:10
Prime
Thank you. You must be a legal eagle. It’s sad to see a home purchased for $280K pre-bubble, and the loans total $1M dollars, and the a-hole has a newer Expedition in the driveway, yet the 1964 windows still there. Not one dime back into the joint (visual anyway) and they owe that much and are filing a BK. Hope the stay is overtuned on the house.
Ben Jones in his post above brings up a point that has been bugging
me for a long time . In essence ,why aren’t they measuring the economy by the economic status of Americans as a whole ? If you have 100 million people considered on poverty levels ,and no doubt a huge % in need of welfare or food stamps or viable jobs ,than why isn’t this the measuring stick for how good this economy is doing ?Why is printing dollars or a rigged Stock Market casino the gage for the
health of the economy ? It’s no doubt that the Stock Market is not a reflection of the economic health of the majority population in USA .
100 million stressed Americans aren’t going to be buyers for houses ,
and no doubt those stressd Americans will add to the foreclosure count given enought time and they won’t be buyers in the near future
unless their economic conditions improve ,and they are going to be a drain on the welfare systems no doubt .
So all this talk about giving Business a break in taxes because they create jobs doesn’t prove that they will give those jobs at a decent wage . Maybe a condition should be that it has to be American jobs that they give .
Does American even have a economy that is decoupled from the World economy any more ,or is it just how good Corporations or Financial systems are doing World Wide ?
Ben Jones mentioned China building all these Cities with nobody living in them . What’s that all about ,that seems nuts .
As far as I’m concerned the World has gone mad and nothing is
gaged on the real health and purchasing power of the actual population in any given Country .
We have a mentality of it being a great thing if house prices rise . That use to be a bad thing that house prices rose and put more people out of the affordability range .In fact, house prices use to tract with
income and the demand being tied to wages and the ability to qualify
for a loan .
it’s clear that the hijacking of the American economic systems has taken place and it’s apparent in even how the economy is rated ,decoupled from the population . As long as the hyped up Stock Market is doing good
the economy is suppose to be doing good, in spite of 100 million Americans on the brink of starvation or insolvency .it’s nuts ,its nuts ,
isn’t it ?
Ok ,sorry for the rant ,but I don’t see that Main Street USA isn’t going more and more downhill .
The politicos/movers and shakers have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. Rioting in the streets is not the status quo. So they use cooked stats and their buddies in the Multinational Media to paint as rosy a picture as possible.
Main Street is going down the crapper because about a dozen different Wall Street chickens are coming home to roost. Among them (in no particular order):
-Favorable tax/policy treatment of the “investor class”, vs. the “labor class”
-Trade/tax policies that favor off shoring every job you can, and “outsourcing” US jobs that can’t be off-shored.
-Transfer of Federal/State/Local tax burdens to Middle class workers and property owners
-Theoretical “Free Market” trade policies.
-A “defense” policy that has morphed into a “Defense of Free Trade” policy, where the whole world theoretically benefits, but the cost (in lost jobs, money and blood) is paid by the US Middle Class
-An environmental movement that has significantly raised to cost of/made it impossible to do business in the US.
-A “legal” environment that somehow allows too many “frivolous” lawsuits, while at the same time gives most corporate/white collar law breakers a “Get out of Jail Free” card.
X-GSfixr,so I believe all the the reasons you stated above ,so what is American going to be, just some third world economic type outpost that is subservient to the greater good of everything but the USA worker class majority ?How are a bunch of poverty bound previous middle class even going to be able to afford to make up for the taxes that are spared the Investor Class ,or the I % or 10 % or the Corporation tax breaks . How are they even going to be able to collect enough tax to take care of the type of welfare that will eventually be needed or the social services that would be needed if these trends continue .
Given the current trends ,wouldn’t a critical mass of people eventually rebel against this and even try to decouple from the systems that aren’t designed now to even protect the majority populations interest in maintaining a reasonable standard of living with jobs ?
How are they even going to be able to collect enough tax to take care of the type of welfare that
What are you talking about? The rich have no interest in providing welfare.
Wiz, your problem is that you’re thinking like a regular human. You need to stop doing that.
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Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-07-28 12:16:38
When you come to the inevitable conclusion that the 1% class, wherever they are, believes that the rest of us are interchangeable with Juan6Packo in Nuevo Laredo or Xian6Pack in Harbin, things will make sense.
As long as the serfs fantasies can be kept alive.
Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-07-28 13:42:49
Once the rich reach a certain level of wealth, the only way to feel wealthier is to force everybody else farther into poverty.
They crave that wealthier feeling like a junkie craves smack, and will do whatever it takes to get it.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-07-28 16:08:22
Wiz, your problem is that you’re thinking like a regular human. You need to stop doing that.
Let’s face it- you don’t have to be a psychopath to be a member of the 1%, but it sure helps!
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2012-07-28 19:35:39
“Let’s face it- you don’t have to be a psychopath to be a member of the 1%, but it sure helps!”
Funny…..when i see Sharpton apologize in person to those white duke lacrosse players, or Ohbahma demand high bail for those 7 teenage thugs brutally beating a white 13 yer old girl unconscious because she wanted the last seat on the school bus….like a reverse Rosa Parks….then will will be on the right path to justice
Affirmative Action In Bank Lending Policy Promises Financial Disaster
Forbes | 07/26/2012 | Bill Flax
Welcome to the bizarre world of banking regulation. Despite the recent disaster wrought by affirmative action lending, Washington ratchets up still more politically correct requirements and shifts the measure of discrimination towards “disparate impact.” Even unbiased behaviors are subject to penalty unless they benefit protected classes.
It’s no longer blind justice meted equally before the law. “Diversity” has become Washington’s Holy Grail, discharging unequal justice in preference for specific outcomes. The burden on businesses expands beyond banning discrimination into virtually requiring reverse discrimination.
Recall before the Great Recession, banks supposedly did not sufficiently extend credit for minorities and less affluent customers. After considerable prodding, lenders lessened standards to accommodate federal guidelines. Politically correct underwriting practices begot financial turmoil.
Washington Mutual was only permitted to consummate a merger in 1999 after committing $120 billion (over ten years) to poor and minority borrowers. And get this: throw two percent of earnings to radicals like ACORN. WaMu subsequently suffocated under toxic debt securities.
While debased dollars and manipulated interest rates spurring mal-investment were the primary catalysts, politically charged housing quotas doused the flames of financial distress with an accelerant. It was as certain as gravity that groups heavily represented as subprime borrowers would also disproportionately stiff lenders.
As the crisis unfolded, the initial outcry blasted banks for evicting helpless homeowners. The only people losing property were those who hadn’t honored their mortgages. When borrowers put little down and don’t pay their debts it’s curious they “lost” something, leastwise “their” homes, but political correctness necessitates blaming banks.
“…committing $120 billion (over ten years) to poor and minority borrowers. And get this: throw two percent of earnings to radicals like ACORN. WaMu subsequently suffocated under toxic debt securities.”
The ACORN people got their way: Mortgage lending targeted at minorities was never higher than in the early 2000s. Too bad that so many of those currently facing foreclosure and financial ruin were among the beneficiaries of this discriminatory lending to minority borrowers.
1) “Disparate Impact” is used as a measure for “potential” discrimination because no one puts out memo’s saying let’s not (or not) hire/loan to/pull over {Insert Race} people. Discrimination is more insidious than that and happens by using criteria that is non-facially discriminatory, but accomplishes the same thing. From a legal perspective however just because something causes a disparate impact doesn’t mean its not permitted, it just means that when there is a disparate impact its shifts the burden of the accused to show that the action had a legitimate non-discriminatory purpose. On its face demanding that my employees grow a beard is not on its face discriminatory, but absence a legitimate need for facial hair (perhaps playing Santa Claus) it will wind up eliminating most women from the position.
2) White people can be such b*tchy little girls, especially when they pretend that being white doesn’t give them all sorts of advantages that all the “affirmative action” in the world could never equal. When was the last time a security guards followed you around a store?
I finally found a website I like for researching home values. Unlike Zillow, the posted values seem fair — not subject to upward bias compared to the price at which they could sell. If shows our landlords are off by $124,000 from their 2004 purchase price — a loss of 22% so far. We could have covered 54 months (four years, six months) rent off the amount saved by not purchasing a comparable home when we moved here — and that doesn’t consider any ownership costs besides the capital loss.
My impression is that most home value web sites (e.g. Zillow) overestimate them relative to current market conditions.
Is the Fed merely pretending they won’t opt for QE3 next week in order to increase the shock-and-awe effect on the stock market when they do opt for it?
ft dot com
July 22, 2012 6:33 pm
Fed looks at third round of easing
By Robin Harding in Washington
The recent slowdown in US economic growth is forcing the Federal Reserve to consider something for which it has always set the bar very high: a third round of quantitative easing.
A decision on whether to launch another round of asset purchases remains in the balance as the central bank wrestles with a complicated economic outlook and uncertainty about the costs and benefits of its easing tools.
In an interview with the Financial Times, John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, said that the weak outlook and the extent of downside risks “would argue for further action” but the counter-argument was doubts about tools such as QE3.
However, Fed officials are determined to ensure that the economy makes progress towards lower unemployment. In June, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee still forecast a decline in the unemployment rate over the next few years, albeit very slowly. Any downgrade to that forecast would be a likely trigger for further action.
“We are looking very carefully at the economy, trying to judge…whether or not the economy is likely to continue to make progress towards lower unemployment,” said Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, in recent testimony to Congress. “If that does not occur, obviously we have to consider additional steps.”
…
Hedge Fund Investors Are Running For The Exits
Ben Duronio | Jul. 10, 2012, 5:49 PM
David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital has underperformed
Laurence Fletcher of Reuters is reporting that hedge fund withdrawals have reached their highest level since 2009, during the midst of the housing crisis.
Net outflows from hedge funds, as measured by the GlobeOp GO.L Capital Movement Index, which tracks monthly net subscriptions to and redemptions from funds managing around $187 billion (120.49 billion pounds) in assets, were 1.17 percent of that total during the month to July 1.
The withdrawals compare with net inflows in each of the previous five months and were the highest level of net outflows since October 2009, when clients pulled out 3.76 percent.
This is more bad news for hedge funds, who have been outperformed by bond funds this year. CNBC’s John Melloy reported earlier today that Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s global diversified hedge fund composite index returned just 1.3 percent in the first half, which was significantly below the S&P 500’s 8.3 percent gain. Melloy noted that David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital was one such underperformer.
With hedge funds not gaining money as rapidly as hoped, investors are starting to pull their money out. This is a trend that hedge funds will want to reverse, quickly.
(Reuters) - Four of the largest U.S. money managers reported sharp declines in second-quarter earnings on Thursday, as volatile markets and fleeing customers cut into their fee income.
The decline was steepest at Denver-based Janus Capital Group Inc, which remains mired in a multiyear trend of lagging fund performance and customer withdrawals. The company’s shares lost 2.6 percent on the New York Stock Exchange.
Net income of $23.4 million was down 44 percent from a year earlier. And the 13 cent per share profit was a penny less than analysts, on average, had expected according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, due to higher-than-anticipated customer outflows of $3.9 billion from long-term funds.
“It looks pretty messy,” said Sandler O’Neill analyst Michael Kim, who had expected outflows of about $2 billion.
Total assets under management at Janus fell to $152.4 billion on June 30, down 7 percent during the quarter and 10 percent from a year earlier.
Most of the industry fared poorly in one of the toughest quarters for money managers since the financial crisis ended. Beset by fears of debt defaults in Europe and an economic slowdown in the United States and China, investors drove the MSCI All Country Index down 6.4 percent in the second quarter while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 2.8 percent.
And that prompted many investors to withdraw and wait for the chaos to subside, particularly from stock funds, the category that tends to provides the highest fees to managers.
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What would be the advantage to the Fed of waiting until 2 months before the 2012 presidential election to make a QE3 announcement? Wouldn’t they face a lot of political liability for changing (or staying the) course so close to the election?
With Fed’s chairman Bernanke statement that he is “prepared to do more” in mind, all the analysts polled by FXstret.com in this month’s FED meeting forecast report, preview that the QE3 is at the gates. However, the most part agree that it’s unlikely to be in August, since September 13th FOMC meeting seems a most factible date.
Some of them, like Talal Abdullah, Financial Analyst at ICN.com, expect this to happen before the end of 2012: “I do believe that the U.S. economy is still weak and far from healthy, so I think the Federal Reserve will monitor the economic data in the U.S. economy closely, and if it shows more weakness, QE3 will be adopted at the end of this year to support growth and help the economy withstand looming threats, especially from debt-troubled euro zone.”
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Hedge funds Où est Monsieur Paulson?
Why no hedge fund has made a killing out of the euro crisis
Jul 28th 2012 | from the print edition
When investors turn gun-shy
MARKET turmoil usually spells good news for someone. When America’s housing market collapsed, the beneficiaries were hedge-fund managers such as John Paulson of Paulson & Co, who made $15 billion shorting subprime mortgages in 2007. Why, then, has the euro-zone crisis not produced a Monsieur Paulson of its own? Despite more than two years of disarray, funds with double-digit returns are rare; those with triple-digit returns are unheard of.
Dejected hedge-fund managers blame political meddling for their flagging performance. Last year several battered European countries, including Italy and Spain, banned short-selling of financial stocks, which cut off one route to winnings. On July 23rd Spain and Italy put in place new short-selling bans, frustrating bearish hedgies everywhere. Uncertainty has made many funds nervous about placing big bets. Confusion over whether a Greek sovereign default would trigger payouts on credit-default swaps (CDSs) scared off many funds, for example.
Market trends have also struggled to gather steam because of political interventions. Usually funds add to a small position as a trend gains momentum, but this strategy has not worked in Europe. Markets have whipsawed in response to announcements in Brussels: managers who have a good month often suffer the next. Shorting the euro, an obvious trade for euro bears, has not worked because the currency has not yet tanked, partly because of a rush for Bunds.
Appearances have mattered, too. Few want to incite a political backlash by being seen to profit from Europe’s woes, which is partly why funds are “in risk-aversion mode”, says Dominic Freemantle of Morgan Stanley. Investors are also gun-shy. Few would want a fund to take on the tremendous leverage (and volatility) required for a triple-digit pay-off like Mr Paulson’s, says Marc Lasry of Avenue Capital, a $12.5 billion hedge fund.
The crisis is not over, of course: there may yet be a big winner.
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Size yields economic benefits, all right — such as free too-big-to-fail bailout insurance in case of foolish gambles producing massive losses, or monopolistically limiting competition so that you can screw over individual household customers.
Sanford “Sandy” Weill’s call this week for breaking up large banks revived debate in Washington over “too-big-to-fail” lenders, prompting renewed assertions by industry groups that size yields economic benefits.
Downsizing would impede U.S. banks’ ability to serve the country’s largest businesses and would lead companies to use foreign banks instead, said Frank Keating, president and chief executive officer of the American Bankers Association.
“It’s time to push the pause button on flawed proposals that would damage the U.S. economy,” Keating said in a statement today.
Keating and others commented after Weill, the former Citigroup Inc. (C) (C) CEO who helped champion the repeal of the Depression-era law that split deposit-taking from investment banking, said in a July 25 CNBC television interview that he now believes the separation should be reinstated.
“A big-bank bust-up on these simple, if alluring, criteria will do nothing to make banking safer,” Karen Shaw Petrou, a managing partner and co-founder of Federal Financial Analytics Inc., said today in a memo to clients of the Washington-based firm. Clearer rules for regulators and bankers are needed instead, she said.
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MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Sometimes a relationship can last a lifetime. But just because two people might seem perfect for each other does not mean their marriage will last a lifetime. All too often, it ends in divorce.
That could be the case for our nation’s biggest banks, and that is exactly what Sanford I. Weill, the former Chairman and CEO of Citigroup (C),wants to see happen. In an interview with CNBC this morning, Weill said that banking should be “split up” from investment banking.
“Have banks be deposit takers, have banks make commercial loans and real estate loans, have banks do something that’s not going to risk the taxpayer dollars, that’s not too big to fail,” Weill told CNBC’s Squawk Box.
In short, Weill is more concerned about taxpayers than anyone else. “I’m suggesting that they be broken up so that the taxpayer will never be at risk, the depositors won’t be at risk, the leverage of the banks will be something reasonable, and the investment banks can do trading, they’re not subject to a Volcker rule, they can make some mistakes, but they’ll have everything that clears with each other every single night so they can be mark-to-market,” he said.
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Former Citigroup honcho Sanford I. Weill said this week that megabanks should be broken into smaller pieces, separating the arms that take federally insured deposits from the ones making bets on Wall Street. Above: Pedestrians walk by the Citigroup Center in San Francisco.
Former Citigroup honcho Sanford I. Weill is widely seen as the man most responsible for the rise of “too big to fail” banks and, by extension, for the enormous federal bailouts they received in 2008 and 2009. This week, however, Weill shocked the financial industry when he said that megabanks should be broken into smaller pieces, separating the arms that take federally insured deposits from the ones making bets on Wall Street. Lawmakers resisted such a straightforward approach when they enacted the Dodd-Frank law to re-regulate the financial industry in 2010. But Weill’s hindsight should prompt them to consider again how best to protect Americans from a repeat of the last meltdown.
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Spain and the markets The Spanish patient A full bail-out of the euro area’s fourth-largest economy is looming Jul 28th 2012 | from the print edition
IF SPAIN were a patient, the mood in the hospital ward would be tense. Every attempt by local specialists advised by renowned European consultants to treat the sickness brings no more than temporary relief. Even more worrying, the relapses after each dose are happening sooner and sooner. Spain’s chances of avoiding intensive care—a full bail-out—are receding to near vanishing-point.
The symptoms of Spanish sickness are manifest in ten-year government bond yields touching 7.75% on July 25th; previous bail-outs of Greece, Ireland and Portugal occurred not long after rates had surpassed 7%. Even more perturbing, two-year yields also briefly went above 7%, in effect foreclosing the government’s ability to borrow at anything but short maturities.
No isolation ward is possible in the financially integrated euro area and Spain’s sickness quickly infected other countries. The Italian ten-year bond yield went above 6.5%, its highest since January. European stockmarkets retreated and Italy’s fell to a euro-era low. Sentiment was further soured by a report from Moody’s, a ratings agency, saying that Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands might lose their cherished triple-A status. The prognosis was based in part on fears about the public-debt burden that northern countries might have to assume if bail-outs spread.
The market funk was the more troubling since a Spanish government with a lot going for it had appeared to be getting a grip. Public debt is rising fast, but at 69% of GDP last year was far lower than Italy’s 120%—and less even than Germany’s 81%. The budget deficit is high (8.9% of GDP in 2011), but only a week before the market panic Mariano Rajoy, the prime minister, announced more tough austerity measures. And on July 20th European finance ministers sanctioned the first tranche of a partial bail-out worth up to €100 billion ($121 billion) for Spanish banks.
So why are investors in such a cold sweat about Spain? One reason is that Mr Rajoy flunked hard choices at the outset, notably the cleansing of the banks. Despite a low starting-point for public debt, deficit overshoots have revealed insufficient central control over the 17 regions that are responsible for a big chunk of spending. Investors fret that more regions may follow Valencia, which applied for aid on July 20th. They are in any case sceptical that Spain can meet its targets for cutting the deficit in the teeth of a recession that is harsher than expected.
The biggest worry is Spain’s external debt. Spain ran hefty current-account deficits in the first decade of the euro. As a result, its liabilities to foreign investors exceeded the assets that its residents own abroad by 92% of GDP last year, among the highest in the euro area. The problem for Spain is that foreign capital has been fleeing over the past year. That has weakened the banks and the economy and left the Spanish government shunned by foreign investors for its own financing needs.
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(AGI) Berlin - The European Central Bank is planning to buy Spanish bonds from financial institutions and other investors.
It will do this to increase demand for the country’s sovereign debt. The German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung reports the move citing sources in Brussels. According to the newspaper, the ECB could act through the EFSF bailout fund on behalf of the eurozone countries. The ECB could act as soon as it receives a request for aid from Spain. ‘It is ready to take this step’, says the newspaper.
The euro crisis Spanish panic Jul 23rd 2012, 11:59 by R.D. | LONDON
THINGS are rapidly getting worse in Spain. Bond yields have risen to over 7.5% today, on the back of a shaky government debt auction last Thursday, and the failure of one of its regions (Valencia) that now needs help from Madrid. In line with this bad news on the state of the government coffers, the cost of buying an insurance policy against Spanish default (credit default swap premia) is up, and is increasingly diverging from Italy’s (see chart). Investors’ views of Spanish companies are just as gloomy as of its government finances. The Spanish stock-market—the IBEX 35—is down 30% this year, as any expectations that company profits will lead to decent dividends anytime soon are thin on the ground. Things could get worse as the week progresses, particularly if preliminary measures of output to be released tomorrow are weak.
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Greek bail-out Is “Grexit” at hand?
Greece has only a couple of weeks left to convince its creditors
Jul 28th 2012 | ATHENS | from the print edition
ON HIS visit to Athens this week, José Manuel Barroso, the head of the European Union (EU) Commission, brought a stern warning for Antonis Samaras, the new prime minister of a precarious right-left coalition government. Greece has only a couple of weeks left to convince its creditors that it can put economic reforms back on track. Should its latest plans for making €14.5 billion ($17.6 billion) of spending cuts over the coming two years be judged unrealistic, the next €31.2 billion loan tranche will again be held back.
If that happens, Greece would be unable to finish recapitalising its big banks. Without credit, the economy will seize up. Pensions and public-sector salaries would not be paid. A “Grexit” from the euro could occur within weeks. The worry for Greeks is that with Spain and Italy coming under attack in financial markets, some euro-zone members may be tempted to sacrifice Greece.
Two previous Athens governments have failed dismally since mid-2010 to implement reforms agreed on with the Commission and the IMF, thanks to widespread official corruption and a lack of political will. Mr Samaras opposed the first Greek bail-out while in opposition; he still wants, at some point, to renegotiate parts of the second.
Yannis Stournaras, the technocratic finance minister, has the difficult job of persuading Greece’s creditors that his government can do better than its predecessors. The troika of officials from the EU, IMF and European Central Bank were especially dismayed by a looming €3 billion gap in privatisation revenues this year, as well as by the lack of progress in cutting jobs in the public sector.
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“Pensions and public-sector salaries would not be paid.”
Current employees can quit if they’re not going to be paid. However, pensioners have already satisfied their side of the contract, and now their government is going to renege on their side?
Spanish cities spent billions in the good times, but now debt burden is crushing the young Spain’s regions spent billions competing with each other to build prestige projects when the economy was good. Now the young are being crushed by the debt burden, which promises to cause a Greek-style disaster which many Spaniards are starting to blame on Europe.
By Nick Meo, Valencia
4:49PM BST 28 Jul 2012
On the way to the docks in Valencia, past rows of dreary blocks of flats, is a fabulously expensive opera house built to get the Spanish city noticed, no matter the price.
The building, centrepiece of the City of Arts and Sciences cultural complex, is the kind of experiment in contemporary architecture on which Spanish cities spent billions of euros during the giddy decade to 2008 - when the property bubble burst and the economy crashed.
An arresting, glimmering white building that looks as if it could have just flown in from outer space, surrounded by pools of cool blue water, it was supposed to rival the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao or the cityscape of Barcelona, up the coast to the north.
It seemed expensive at the time. But it is only now that Valencia understands the true price of architect Santiago Calatrava’s bold vision. The city, Spain’s third biggest, is so mired in debt that last week it had to turn to Madrid for a €2 billion bailout - setting a precedent for other Spanish regions.
Within days Murcia region had followed suit and much larger Catalonia, which is €42 billion in debt, is likely to do so shortly. Between them, Spain’s 17 regions owe an estimated €140 billion. The dawning realisation of what this could mean for Madrid’s own debt problem has driven Spanish borrowing charges to a dangerous new high, and raised new fears about the entire country’s need for an EU bailout.
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Have the PTB connected the dots yet between the Fed’s ultra-low interest rate policy and pension underfunding? It’s not rocket science, folks: Low interest rates result in skyrocketing pension liabilities, coupled with paltry investment returns on pension assets. The result is a steep increase in contribution requirements, at the very moment when corporations or tax bases are least able to shoulder them. Sounds to me like a recipe for a financial disaster.
Is this even on the Fed’s radar screen, or do they still operate under the delusional belief that low rates are for the greater good?
Three recently released data points bring new worry to a long-standing if not always front-of-mind U.S. economic problem, underfunded public pensions.
In a week featuring testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and therefore renewed market speculation about the central bank’s next move, revelations about alleged Libor manipulations, a flood of corporate earnings reports and more, it’s easy to pass over an issue that features no easy solutions and seems to have been with us forever.
But proper financing of public pension obligations is a broad and serious problem.
Fact one: On July 13, CalSTRS, the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, reported a 1.8% return on its investments in the 2011-12 fiscal year. Its actuarial assumed rate of return is 7.5 %. Its chief executive officer, Jack Ehnes, said in a press release, “Investment returns alone cannot place CalSTRS on a solid financial footing. “ He called for state government action for a “long-term funding plan that includes gradual, predictable and fair contribution increases for all parties involved.” CalSTRS is the second-largest public pension fund in the U.S.
Fact Two: On July 16, the largest public pension plan in the U.S., the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) said it earned 1% on its investments in the fiscal year ended June 30. Its so-called discount rate also is 7.5%.
“It’s important to remember that CalPERS is a long-term investor and one year of performance should not be interpreted as a signal about our ability to achieve our goals over the long term,” said Henry Jones, chair of CalPERS’ investment committee, in a press release. Over 20 years, CalPERS boasts a 7.7% investment return.
Fact Three: Earlier this week, a State Budget Crisis Task Force, headed by public policy veterans Paul Volcker (who once helmed the Fed) and Richard Ravitch (who once was lieutenant governor of New York), cited “underfunded retirement promises” as one of six major threats to states’ “fiscal sustainability.”
“The most significant reason for pension underfunding is that investment earnings have fallen far short of what was assumed,” said the report. “Many pension plans with the greatest need for increased contributions have an additional burden in the fact that their states and localities habitually have skipped or underpaid their actuarially required contributions…”
It’s not rocket science, folks: Low interest rates result in skyrocketing pension liabilities, coupled with paltry investment returns on pension assets.
Well said; but what is the timeframe in which the pension fund crisis will become visible to all? My guess is that the date is far enough down the road that they simply don’t care at this point.
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July 27, 2012
The Problem with “Mitt the Twit”: He’s a Wazzock
Posted by John Cassidy
Day three of his world tour, day one of the Olympics, and things aren’t getting much better for our boy Willard. Having been monstered by Fleet Street for his criticisms of the preparations for the Games, contradicted by the Prime Minister, and ridiculed by the mayor of London, the Mittster is now facing criticism from one of his own nation’s greatest athletes, the sprinter Carl Lewis.
“Every Olympics is ready,” Lewis, who won nine gold medals at four different Olympics, told the Independent. “I don’t care whatever [Romney] said. I swear, sometimes I think some Americans shouldn’t leave the country. Are you kidding me, stay home if you don’t know what to say.”
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Not that I necessarily disagree with his assessment, but “greatest athlete”, Carl Lewis, was a notorious drug cheat.
However, if they’re going to allow bionic competitors like Oscar Petorious to run, I don’t see why pharmaceutical performance enhancers shouldn’t also be allowed. After all, the Olympics used to be about amateur athletics– and look what happened to that requirement.
After all, the Olympics used to be about amateur athletics
“LONDON — A celebration of free healthcare, the trade union struggle, the battle for women’s rights and a fleeting lesbian kiss: the Olympics opening ceremony Friday did not shy away from weighty social issues.” http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hK3ZHgHyRLFGgFylJyPxUfH0kOtg?docId=CNG.2249ee77cd214cd016f6cfc488472e87.2a1
Wow more left leaning than the Beijing games! Slum Dog did the HBB proud.
“free healthcare” always means someone is on the unfortunate side of the gun.
They talked before about 30 million people not being able to afford health care ,but as time goes on it’s going to be more like 100 million not being able to afford health care .
How will that effect all the figures they figured in the
creation of the Health Care Bill ?
Those gun-toting Norwegians sure are causing a ruckus! It can be argued that all taxation comes from the end of a gun but all civilization comes from the end of a gun, too. If there is going to be a group of people living together, laws are needed, as is enforcement. Enforcement comes from guns. In other words, if you live in any society with rules, there is a gun pointing at you somewhere. The gun already exists.
“Free” health care and single payer systems are not the same thing. Single payer systems usually have a bundle of services that come at no cost and others that the user must pay for. Injuries like gunshot wounds are usually provided at no cost while elective treatments (like plastic surgery) are user-pay. Although free market theory predicts that this model should be less cost effective, in practice, this does not appear to be the case.
So the United States was uncivilized between 1870 and 1913?
The brainwashers did well to plant a meme into you that without taxes we do not have a civil society.
The brainwashers did well to plant a meme into you that without taxes we do not have a civil society.
So we had no taxes between 1870 and 1913?
There were no income taxes between 1870 and 1913. Revenue was mainly through tariffs. Also from the beginning of the nation up to 1860 again, no income taxes.
Congress constitutionally has the power to lay and collect taxes. But up until 1913 they were intelligent enough to understand their power to lay and collect taxes was very dangerous and only to be used for emergencies. We had basically a 100 year emergency.
The Capital gains tax in the USA did not start until (drumroll) 1916. http://tinyurl.com/6n892o2
America got along well without being world cop before your Wilsonian era of big government. You communists now think, taxes are American. When in fact they are anti-American and not part of our heritage.
Revenue was mainly through tariffs.
Oh, so we did have taxes during that period.
Can you give us an example of any civilization in world history that didn’t have taxes of some sort, Bill?
Bear in mind that a tariff is a government imposed tax.
It’s a government-imposed tax on foreigners. That’s my point - not on Americans.
I said it months ago that we need to return to tariffs to even up the playing field.
Other nations such as China have little or no income taxes and capital gain taxes. Go figure. A communist country being more capitalist than the USA.
You bloggers complain about outsourcing. Well reduce our corporate taxes and raise tariffs on foreign goods. Eliminate our own income taxes, corporate taxes, capital gains taxes, dividends taxes and do NOT implement any new tax. Then we will see America get back its golden age.
“It’s a government-imposed tax on foreigners. That’s my point - not on Americans.”
Sounds good, until your trade partner imposes a tax — not on its own citizens — i.e. a tariff paid by Americans.
Wasn’t the Wild West still around in the late 1800’s? Hardly what I would call a civil society.
It’s a government-imposed tax on foreigners.
Let’s try again and see if your reading comprehension can overcome your political blinders.
It is a tax, imposed by the government, and generally paid by the citizens of the country that imposes it. (US traders paid the tariffs in the US, not some Chinese dude in a boat at the port.)
So, since the only example you can come up with is incorrect, we can see that there has never been civilization without taxes.
It was a more polite society
PB. Hence you must favor NAFTA and the other trade agreements. America essentially agreed to not have tariffs, along with other nations, but Jack up the taxes on it’s own citizens and entrepreneurs and continue to be a nanny state. It is no coincidence the U.S. Is now tenth on the list of countries with the most economic freedom. Less than thirty years ago we were fourth on the list.
“Hence you must favor NAFTA and the other trade agreements.”
That’s a big leap of faith for you to say this. I was just pointing out the flaw in your argument, as imposing tariffs on a nation’s trade partners is quite likely to quickly lead to reciprocal tariffs on imports. The net effect is a tax increase on trade flows, which I hear Republicans and Libertarians alike think would be a bad outcome.
“notorious drug cheat”
All the folks on this blog that have never competed at the highest levels of a sport are just unaware of what’s going on in all (yes, all) pro sports (or Olympic caliber) in the world today. You point at Carl Lewis, Lance Armstrong, Barry Bonds, etc and scream “cheat”. What you don’t realize is that, at these levels, they are all “cheating”.
Look at the improvements made in world record times over the past 50 years (for lots of sports). What do you think happened? Sure, technology does play a role (slick suits for swimmers, for example), but, in general, the answer is drugs/hormones/blood doping/etc. Look at football players, we now have wide receivers that are bigger than linebackers of 50 years ago, and faster than Olympic quality sprinters from the same period. What do you think is going on here?
Sports are a proving ground for the newest and best techniques to gain an edge over competitors. Almost all of it is technology on one level (slick suits, carbon fiber bikes, running shoes, etc), and yet, we punish only one type of technology (drugs)?
Of course pharma enhancers should be allowed, they are already there, and, honestly, the teams that win have the best doctors who know how to play cat and mouse with the testing bodies. There’s still no reliable test for GH, one of the biggest advances in sports medicine (and yes, it confers a significant athletic advantage) and anti-aging medicine over the last 50 years.
Also, on another note, I could care less about pro sports and the effects of PE drugs there. The real crime is the “average Joe/Jane” who continues to get fatter and more out of shape, unable to conceive of how the models, actors, etc can look so perfect. Most people go through a cycle where they decide; I’m going to get ripped and make myself look like *Insert hardbody here*. They work out like a maniac for 6-12 months, and, at the end, realize that they look nothing like those they are trying to imitate, get discouraged and quit (in fact, in many cases, they don’t look that much different than they did when they started). The thing they don’t realize, those people they are trying to imitate, almost without exception, have a huge pharmacological advantage over them, they are taking a cocktail of drugs that helps them look the way they want to. It’s become so pervasive in movies that we don’t even notice it anymore, but, for a good idea, take a look at Edward Norton in American History X, and then take a look at Cary Grant. Edward Norton looks like a professional bodybuilder from Cary’s day. How do you think this happened? Shoot, even the morons on Jersey Shore, drinking 30 beers a night and putting in crappy workouts each and every day would WIN an international bodybuilding competition from the 30’s-40’s..
And yes, I did use these kinds of drugs for years (legally, because, if you can afford it, it’s very easy to get doctors to prescribe you GH and testosterone), and advised others on how to use them. I no longer do it, not because I disagree with them, or because I found them harmful, but, unfortunately, I just don’t have the time to get into the gym and I don’t think it’s reasonable to take the risks (YES, there are risks) if I’m not going to be able to maximize my results.
The people who single out “Carl Lewis” or “Barry Bonds” just make me laugh. Open your eyes people, those guys weren’t the exception to the rule, they ARE the rule and happened to do something stupid and get caught.
Good post, Overtaxed. You seem really fired up today.
Your only a cheat if you get caught; otherwise your a hero.
Combo,
Well, I’ve been reading a bunch of books that have had me in deep thought (and not very pleasant thought); The Bell Curve, Better to Never Have Been, The Art of War.. It’s a very encouraging bunch of books to read at one time.
I think I need to intersperse a comedy in there as well to cheer me up.
And, this is a topic that burns my a**, it always has since I understood what was really going on. When I was younger, I used to spend hours in the gym, tons of money on “natural supplements” (which, no surprise, many turned out to be more dangerous than the illegal stuff) and was so discouraged after 3-4 years of this that I just about quit and said to myself “I’m just never going to look like they guys in magazines (not bodybuilding magazines)”. Then, finally, I decided to give in and try steroids. My first time it was a guy at the gym, and, within 2 months, I was a “hardbody” (at least in my mind). I got all kinds of attention, felt great about myself, met my current wife, and, in general, was a great part of my life. Nobody suspected I was on steroids, I wasn’t huge (I looked like Mike S, the moron that he is; it’s probably the best way I can describe my physique at the time), just “big” and defined. I continued to work out and looked great for about 5 years, again, very happy with how I looked/felt and people reacted to me. And the entire time, the comments that my wife, friends, family would hear was “he looks great”, not “he’s a freak” or “What’s he on”.
A few years ago, my job started to require me to do a lot of travel, and, unfortunately, I blew out my back which really put an end to my “hardbody” days. I’m still in good shape, and I still go to the gym, but, much like almost everyone else not taking steroids, you’d never look at me today and say “Wow, great body”, just more “average build, not overweight”.
The thing that really burns my butt about this is; in case nobody’s noticed, we have a terrible obesity epidemic in this country. Many of those people went through the “first few years” of my experience in the gym, killed themselves, say minimal/no results, and then gave up. They expected 3-4 days a week, 1-2 hours each and they’d look like Mike S. When they didn’t, they gave up and resigned themselves to a life of physical mediocrity, many of them becoming overweight or worse later in life. This is a real crime against the American people; I always was very honest with others about my steroid use; people would always come up to me in the gym and say “you must spend every day here” or “what do you have, about 50 sets to go?”. Many people (who I personally knew were juicing) would say “Yeah man, it’s hard work” or some BS like that. I’d tell them, point blank, “I’m going to be here for 45 minutes, and probably going to work out less that you will. I’ll be lucky if I get in here 3 times this week. I look like this because I take steroids and eat a reasonable diet”. The look of shock on many people’s faces was almost worth it; but, also, I wanted them to know the truth about how people “did it”, and not to discourage them; if you don’t either take steroids or spend your entire day here 7 days a week, you’ll NEVER look like this.
Also, the other thing that really annoys me about all this.. Once I got enough money, I started to go to sports doctors, all of whom would (and still will) prescribe me testosterone at the drop of a hat. The folks who can’t afford the appointments and cost of the legal stuff are the ones who go to jail, get infections/sick, etc. It’s insane that I can “buy my way” out of the legal system that surrounds steroids because I can afford a Dr to write for me. But, I guess, that’s just the state of drug prohibition in the US. Rush Limbaugh bought his way out of a huge opiate habit; if he didn’t have the money, he’d be buying heroin on the street; because he could afford it, he had nothing but nice and legal drugs whenever he wanted it. What a joke.
http://dailydisgrace.com/category/mike-sorrentino/
So basically, steroids/HGH/testostrone worked for you.
I didn’t take the shit. But wish I had.
So what if it cuts a few years off of your life? If it puts you into the top 10% of income earners, you are still better off than the typical J6P schlub/loser.
“…So what if it cuts a few years off of your life?…”
Well, take a good look at Bruce Jenner and Ahnode these days. Even with all the plastic surgery they still look like freaky old grandmas.
Better to be a rich, freaky old grandma looking dude, than be me.
I’ll bet they don’t worry about a bleak future for themselves, their kids and their grandkids.
I’m basically screwed. So are a lot of people like me, they just don’t know it yet. They watch Fox News too much.
All three of my daughters (and my granddaughter) are screwed. They will be caught in the crossfire between the rioting/stealing/murdering wretched refuse, and the top 10%ers, who will be able to afford the personal security services needed when the government money to pay the cops runs out.
The oldest is starting to suspect it. I don’t have the heart to tell the other two. All three are stocking up on guns and ammo, for the coming “Zombie Apocalypse”.
“… So what if it cuts a few years off of you life?…”
Yeah, what’s the big deal. It’s not as if you can’t just go out and buy more of it.
Fixr, be thankful you didn’t take steroids. A good friend of mine was on juice for a few years. He was working out before he started and had plateaued. After going on roids, he put on 40 lb in about 6 weeks and it was all muscle.
However, when he stopped, he also stopped working out and all the muscle on his arms and legs melted away and formed a large tire around his gut. He went from looking like a white Mike Tyson to a flabby pigeon. He never got close to his pre-juice form.
Ask a guy that’s thirty if he is looking foreward to becoming eighty and he will most likely tell you “No”.
Ask a person that’s seventy-nine the same question and you will get an entirely different answer.
obesity epidemic
Stop eating wheat, corn, sugar, white potatoes.
I know that ahansen and I disagree on this. But I see just too many people “eating right” and execising exactly as they are told, and it’s not working for them. It. Just. Isn’t. Sure, it works for some, but only a few. For the rest, the ones who try hard are exhausted and they still can’t get there. The ones who don’t try, or who are more susceptible, are in much worse shape. Meanwhile, my only exercise is mowing the lawn, and I haven’t weighed so little since before puberty hit. I wear clothing meant for people 20 years younger than me. I keep forgetting to eat.
look like freaky old grandmas.
Guffaw! I was thinking the same as I watched Paul McCartney last night.
I believe in “It’s better to die a little too soon, than too late”
The way things are going in our country, many others will come to agree with me.
Say your alternatives are:
-Dying suddenly of a heart attack or stroke at 60-65, the day after you get laid off (again)
or
-Slowly dying of Alzheimers at age 70, while having the medico/drug complex suck every last dime out of your meager estate, eventually dying of infections related to improper treatment at the $hithole nursing home you went to, after you ran out of money?
It’s becoming increasingly apparant that these are the choices I’ll be limited to.
Nothing like looking for a job at age 54 to help you figure out what society thinks you are “worth”.
in case nobody’s noticed, we have a terrible obesity epidemic in this country…
This is the part I was thinking you left out as I read your first post. I don’t think people need to turn to steroids to get very positive results. I think the problem with most folks who decide to get into the gym is they think it’s a one-threaded affair. In reality, diet also must change. When it doesn’t, and results don’t follow, they give up.
It wasn’t until I eschewed fried food and dairy (in addition to turning up the cardio) that the pounds I needed to shed came off and I firmed up.
Oxy, it’s not that I disagree with you, it’s that the science disagrees with you. Exercising “exactly” like “they” tell you may or may not cause you to lose weight– there are too many other factors to consider and everyone’s body is different, which I suspect is what you are referencing? For most people, exercise isn’t an efficient way to lose weight, (though it may make you fitter).
In fact, initially, as you exercise (whatever that means) you may gain weight because you’re putting on muscle, which weighs more than the fat you’re burning off. And as you lose weight you may reach various metabolic plateaus as your body “resets” itself.
But the dynamics of weight loss are really very simple, and they’re not subject to scientific debate:
Consume fewer kcl than your basal metabolism requires, and you will lose weight. Consume more than you use, and you will gain weight. Period.
I have found that it’s not really what I eat that’s the problem, it’s how much. Not every body is the same. I can eat Ben and Jerry’s for dinner and not gain weight, as long as I don’t include a pepperoni pizza.
Overtaxed: Fantastic post, very interesting.
I’ve been hitting the weights most of my life, with varying intensities. The reality I discovered is that it comes down to genetics. At my peak form, I was weaker than a friend of mine who had lifted in the past, but had been away from the weights for a long time. Genetics. Nothing was going to give me that bone structure and tendon size and muscle “density”.
Another data point: I knew a guy who was built like a Greek god. Broad shoulders, skinny waist, heavily muscled. Whenever I saw him in the gym, he was socializing. Genetics. Nothing was going to give me that bone structure.
Then, you take all of us and give us steroids and it’s going to lift the whole boat, but with the health consequences that come from steroid use.
But, as with everything, someone’s profiting from it.
Different ethnicities require different food types. And it varies within ethnicity.
Example: An Inuit (Eskimo) living in Alaska, or a native Siberian (the name escapes me). Versus a Mediterranean fisherman type. Versus a South Asian (Indian) farmer.
The Inuit is evolved to eat massive amounts of protein and very little vegetable matter. The Indian farmer at the opposite end of the spectrum is evolved to eat high levels of vegetable matter and very little animal protein.
I think each individual has to look at his ethnicity to get an idea of what works best for him and her, then experiment to determine what is the precise best mix. Telling an Inuit to go full vegetarian will like result in a very sick Inuit. Telling an Indian to eat a lot of steak will likely make him very sick.
” The Bell Curve, Better to Never Have Been, The Art of War.. It’s a very encouraging bunch of books to read at one time.”………………….
How could you possibly find The Bell Curve “encouraging”?
It is an indictment of the racial social policies of the United States, policies suggesting that we can make people equal.
The Bell Curve unequivocally says we can’t and never will.
We’ll just “redistribute” the wealth so everyone will look equal.
The authors concluded that to save America we needed rapid birth control of “minority” populations having multiple welfare babies to prevent a complete collapse of society.
I agreed with their findings, but I also read “Paved with Good Intentions”. This was some 20 years ago. Nothing has changed.
We continue down the same road to damnation.
Pick up a copy of “paved with good intentions”. It’s a real eye-opener.
“How could you possibly find The Bell Curve “encouraging”?”
I was being facetious, I find it terribly depressing. There’s just so much research in that book that all (obviously) points to the same conclusion. IQ (or G, general intelligence) is, by far, the most important thing to be born with in this world. Unfortunately, it’s a genetic trait, which means, through time, that families with high G will have more high G children than those with low G.
And, of course, the kicker, those with low G are having FAR more children that those with high G. We are honestly watching a devolution (is that a word; my spell check thinks so?) of our general intelligence. This is a terrifying reality, and it’s also happening at a shockingly rapid pace (a few IQ points per generation). Extend this out a few hundred years, and we’ve got some serious issues on our hands.
My IQ is by no means “exceptional”, but it’s over the median by a reasonable amount. I don’t think I’ll be having any children. And, across my social circle, I can see it happening very clearly, those with the “most brains” are having no, or few children. Those who are less intelligent are having 3-4. And this is just my social circle, I’m not talking about welfare babies here, just more children to those who are less intelligent, but certainly not “dumb”. Or society is somehow encouraging the more intelligent to have less/no children (and I don’t exactly know why).
Also, the ramifications for a child born today with substandard intelligence is also quite horrific. It’s almost as if we all suddenly had to play basketball for a living, very quickly we’d figure out that white guys that are 5′10 and have no game aren’t very useful members of “society” (assuming, again, that the only purpose of society is to play basketball).
As I said, it’s quite a collection of books, I need to get something funny in there to keep me from going into a depression and doing nothing but writing 3 page posts to some random blog…
“Genetics. Nothing was going to give me that bone structure and tendon size and muscle “density”. Another data point: I knew a guy who was built like a Greek god. Broad shoulders, skinny waist, heavily muscled. Whenever I saw him in the gym, he was socializing. Genetics. Nothing was going to give me that bone structure.”
Thanks, glad you found the rant interesting (or at least readable). The only thing I’d disagree with you on, where you say “genetics” should, in most cases, be replaced with “steroids”. Especially in your 2nd example, a guy built like a greek god, almost without a shadow of a doubt (especially if you see him jacking around in the gym all the time) is almost certainly taking something to get that kind of form. And to your first point, you probably know what I’m going to say… But yes, something would give you that kind of tendon size and muscle density. It’s just a question of if the risks are worth it.
I wish I could show you a picture of what a real “natural” bodybuilder looks like, but, what you’re picturing in your mind is nothing like the reality. Take a look at some of the pros from the 30’s and 40’s, that will give you a good idea. Yes, training techniques and diets have improved a bit, so, perhaps you can find a genetic freak who looks a bit better than the pros of the 30’s and 40’s who’s “clean”, but, frankly, the reason our pros look nothing like that today has far more to do with drugs than it has to do with anything else.
“Paul McCartney”
Poor guy — I found myself thinking he should have sung ‘When I’m Sixty-four’ rather than ‘Hey Jude.’ My kids complained about how he sounded, and they are all Beatlephiles.
Having played in a backup orchestra for Tony Bennett a couple of times when he was already in his seventies, I can say that not all singers are washed up at that point in their careers. I see he is scheduled to perform in San Diego this September — at age 86. I will feel fortunate if I am still getting my violin out of the case on a regular basis once I hit that age.
The number one principle in the obesity epidemic is this: If you put more in than you burn off, it’s going to most likely become fat. There are exceptions: Many hyperthyroid people (I think I posted I’m hypothyroidic. I meant I’m hyperthyroidic) who don’t seem to have the medication well tuned for their biochemistry.
I see obese people at the gym daily. One guy as wide as a doorway, very nice guy, probably 350 lbs (which is double my weight), who is on the cardio cross trainer for an hour. Probably burns 400 calories. But he probably eats 4,500 calories a day, maybe more! Just an estimate.
Back to hyperthyroid: I saw a lot of web blogs where most people complain about levothyroxine being non-affective on their problem. That their doctors reluctantly allowed them to use Armour and they are much better. I guess it works for them but so far levothyroxine works for me. I was an obese kid from age 5 to 17, then I was chubby for three years in my late 30s due to my wonderful ex girlfriend’s awesome cooking. Other than that, I’ve used regular exercise, both weights and cardio to keep me wearing waist size 33 jeans. I could probably fit 32 because I need to extra tighten my belt.
I see obese people at the gym daily.
Same here, and like your “one guy” there is one lady in particular that I’ve always noticed at my gym because she only does weights (never see her doing any cardio) and has looked EXACTLY the same for the 3 years I’ve been going to that gym, and she’s always there when I’m there. Not sure I’d call her obese but she’s definitely carrying extra weight around.
Perhaps I’m projecting what her goal is but if weight loss is one of them, she’s clearly not doing enough to burn calories or not altering her diet.
When Carl (”I don’t know how they’re doing it without drugs”) Lewis was competing in the 1980’s, “doping” was basically limited to professional bodybuilders, wrestlers, and pro team sports. Track and field athletes of the time made a point of “clean competition” and hugely resented Lewis for introducing that element into their sport. Not sure when you were competing, Over, but up until the ‘84 Olympics, high level amateur competiors took that sort of thing very seriously and policed their own– even if the OC did not.
Curiously, the routine use of performance-enhancing injectables coincided neatly with Romney’s selling of the Games to corporate sponsors in Salt Lake City in 1988. Funny how that corruptions thing works….
Sorry, SLC in 2002. Lewis was publicly “caught” in 1988 after his team ratted him out to the IOC.
Ahansen,
Yes, I would agree, there certainly were some sports back then where the majority of the competitors were clean. There probably still are some, where steroids just don’t provide much/any advantage to the competitors. However, today, if there’s an advantage to be had by being bigger/faster/stronger or having more endurance (which is almost all professional and most Olympic sports), you can almost guarantee you that the there are a LOT of steroids in those competitors when they get on the starting line.
The easiest thing to see is when a “set” sport starts to get records shattered. Things like the sprints, marathons, etc where technology plays no role at all. That’s not training “methods” (you’re running for god’s sake, how much can you improve training for that), and it sure as s**t isn’t evolution, it’s something in their blood that’s allowing them to do things that, just a few years ago, would have been impossible.
How about football the sport that americans call soccer? I think average skills can turn into speed but not into real skills.
“How about football the sport that americans call soccer? I think average skills can turn into speed but not into real skills.”
This goes for most sports. Steroids don’t help technique. I spent a good part of my life playing baseball until I quit in my mid 20’s, and there were a lot of guys who were juiced to the hilt. I could still hit the ball further than them, and they just scratched their heads. I’ve never worked out regularly in my life. I hate the gym, but really enjoyed playing the game. I suppose if I would have juiced up, I could have increased the distance of my home runs, but it wasn’t even necessary.
Then, looking at the current soccer players it seems that cardio certainly works! I also think that these players are blessed with genes that give them that edge. In other words they are predisposed to being fit (ripped as many have said here). The cardio they get playing 1.5 hours and the training just takes them to a new level
There are more than a few retired soccer players who become porkers once they stopped playing (and got older).
I don’t like the single-minded and aggressive behavior in the guys who are obviously juicing. The personality really changes and they’re quite unpleasant to deal with.
“…single-minded and aggressive behavior…”
I seem to recall a former governor of a certain West Coast state who got himself into a lot of hot water for groping females back in his weight training / steroid injecting days.
ot, i do not know how you can generalized your conclusion about steroid use on the sport of long distance running, in particular. i am a runner and pretty much can claim that steroids does not help much. its technology alright, but more on the part of training, biology, biomechanics, psychology, etc. ever wondered why east africans dominate this sports and why elite us runners are almost all training in the highlands, like mammoth? btw, the great rift is in east africa. go figure.
And yet JoPa didn’t give his athletes drugs didn’t see or participate in anything illegal, and they take away his Wins….
——-And yes, I did use these kinds of drugs for years
He didn’t let his athletes do drugs, but he let his staff sexually abuse children. That’s why he was stripped of his wins.
Turns out he was an evil mofo. Or at the very least, a heartless POS. Just think if it was your kid, or your nephew or niece, then maybe even you will begin to get it.
What, his players didn’t take drugs? Are you sure? He didn’t have to be the one to personally hand the stuff to them. But his recruiting and training practices are pretty much the standard at all the football schools around the country, and I thought all those enhancers just went with the territory now.
dj,
Step away from the keyboard.
At 52 my TSH finally was high enough that my doctor prescribed levothyroxine. My major symptom was in my blood. But an endocrinologist confirmed via ultrasound that I have enlargement of my thyroid. It’s mild and I’m taking 50 mcg daily. I was having joint pain and attributed that to the onset of arthritis and being in wet humid areas mostly (Florida or beach areas of L.A.)
Within the first week of being on the medicine my digestion became normal. After eight months or so on the medicine my joint pain dissipated. I had to change my freestyle swim technique over 15 months ago to be easier on my shoulders without sacrificing speed.
Now I’m adding back in body building. I was big into that in the 80s and 90s. I’m focusing on pushups.
The combination of synthroid (under doctor’s guidance) and “listening” to my body (exercising smart to minimize joint pain) and diet resulted me in being at my most ripped ever. I don’t have the 6 pack abs yet but I am very close to it. My last exhaustive pushup test, I could do 65 consecutive pushups with the use of pushup bars and military style. That’s the equivalent of more pushups with hands on the floor because I get the added stretch with the bars. In my early 30s I could only do 52 max.
A few weeks after starting the synthroid, I found out that some body builders use it to cut down on fat.
I think I might have gotten into the right groove with the drug positively interacting with my biochemistry. But I am being proactive and getting regular blood tests and endocrinology appointments.
Hypothyroidism is common in people whose parents grew up in the Great Lakes areas. Not common in men but I was predisposed. My oldest sister was diagnosed with it as a kid. I basically staved it off until my 50s. I’m on drugs for life. And I’m upbeat about it because I know older people who are also on these drugs and they lead normal lives. One is in his 70s and still a contract engineer flying back and forth between Wisconsin and Georgia. A gal friend of mine was on synthroid for most of her life and she is not obese at all.
Yup, T3 and T4 are pretty common in the BB community. I never used them very much, because, honestly, messing with my thyroid levels made me a little nervous. But, lots of guys do/did, and they saw very good weight loss from them. I was always worried about having to be on those drugs for life, which, at my age, would have been a real PITA. When you come off testosterone, you’re levels are low, but they almost always recover. When you start taking stuff like T3/T4 or insulin, you can have a situation where you’re never going to recover you “pre” levels and wind up on those drugs forever. In your situation, sounds like you got there without any “supplementing” earlier in your life. But yeah, in case my earlier rants didn’t bear this out, lots of these drugs ARE dangerous and you need to know what you’re doing. Or have the money to get a Dr to look over you and your levels when you’re doing it (which is what I did for most of my time using them). Playing guinea pig is never a good idea.
I agree. I am fortunate that my disease started late enough that I built up a good sum of net worth and can afford to pay whatever I need to get at a doctor. I am aware that specialists cost a lot of money. Yes my $350 per month insurance helps pay. But I pay a lot out of pocket too and I think my health is far more important than driving a show off car or buying a house. These drugs are dangerous if not monitored. So I go every few months for a checkup. I’m lucky that my hair did not fall out (I heard that was a potential).
Back in 1982 when I was 23 I read Durk Pearson’s and Sandy Shaw’s book “Life Extension” - odd for a young man to read it. But I was reading Heinlein books also at the time and wanted to “live forever” (ha). “Life Extension” impressed on me the disclaimer (many times throughout the book) that if you do not have medical supervision of the changes on your biochemistry of these supplements, you are a DAMN FOOL.
Around those days a 27 year old body builder friend of my sister’s died of a heart attack. The ramifications (after earlier health issues) from taking steroids unsupervised.
I would not be taking synthroid if my doctors did not urge me to take it.
The bodybuilding with drugs just makes you look good. But in order to have an internally healthy body cardio types of activities are the best. Having been in the chemical field all my life I have come to the conclusion there is no such thing as a health chemical. Even Sodium Chloride which we consume every day is unhealthy.
Just my 2 cents
You have to have a mixture of both weight resistance and cardio. Your own individual biochemistry works best with a particular amount (60/40? 40/60?).
I see people every day in the weight room that look the same. I see one obvious steroid type. He preens in front of a mirror after his workout. Ironically around the corner from that mirror is a posted warning about steroid usages.
For most of us, keeping the chiseled look is a brass ring that might be caught temporarily. Or for many years (Jack LaLanne) if the biochemistry is good.
I do think the combination of a Mediterranean diet (mostly fresh fruits and vegetables, fish, and eggs), at least 7 hours of sleep a night (to help the body produce HGH) and smart body building and following the advice of the prescribed drugs and getting the regular specialist checkups and blood work is the best way to optimize your own biochemistry.
“He preens in front of a mirror after his workout.”
That’s why I will never, ever use steroids. My body is fine — not quite as muscular as I would like, not quite as slender, but good enough for me to feel OK about my body image.
I’m just not a preener.
LOL. Funny thing is that he spends ten minutes preening while his young girlfriend waits for him patiently at the juice bar. She’s done and ready to go before him!
Bill, you’ve been preening all day today.
“The thing they don’t realize, those people they are trying to imitate, almost without exception, have a huge pharmacological advantage over them, they are taking a cocktail of drugs that helps them look the way they want to.”
I want to look like Edward Scissorhands, what kinda drugs did he take?
“I want to look like Edward Scissorhands, what kinda drugs did he take?”
Meth..
LOL
anyone been out with those heavy duty female bodybuilders?
“anyone been out with those heavy duty female bodybuilders?”
There is nothing more unattractive, IMO.
“There is nothing more unattractive, IMO.”
Agreed.
“…heavy duty female bodybuilders?”
I admire a woman with muscle tone, but those steroid-physique babes gross me out. I’d rather look at a grizzly bear…
Went out with an open ocean swimmer. 6 miles to 10 miles, no wetsuit, 59 degree water the norm. SC to Capitola, Goleta to SB, etc.
Men would drop like flies from those races with hypothermia. Stroke count would drop and their paddler would have to pull them from the race. Iron man types with the corresponding body fat %. Only dudes that seemed to do alright had guts on them. Seems cool water makes a body want to store fat.
Didn’t exactly make her a skinny gal, but from behind you would have thought “wouldn’t I like to have those shoulders” (If you were a dude on roids). Girl was chiseled!
Like my current wife would say, all those years ago when they sold head to head at Farmers Market, “wouldn’t want to encounter her in a dark alley” and I would counter, “she would come in handy in a rip current, though!”
Romney’s problem with the Brits was entirely self-inflicted. Someone asked him how he thought the preparations were going and he thought they were actually interested in his opinion. They weren’t. He was being given an opportunity to give his hosts a polite complement. He blew it.
An interview on foreign soil as a presidential candidate isn’t the same thing as a staff business meeting.
That level of obliviousness of your audience is a big problem for a politician and a candidate. I’m surprised his staff hasn’t managed to educate him on this one yet. He must be very resistant to the concept. It does not bode well for any future skill as diplomat.
“He was being given an opportunity to give his hosts a polite complement. He blew it.”
Habitual arrogance can easily blow up in a former-CEO-turned politician’s face.
If a diplomat is a man who’s sent abroad to lie for his country, is a politician a man who lies to his electorate? To be fair to Romney I don’t think he’s quite got a handle on this lying thing.
He does make the effort regularly, though. He’ll get better at it.
he is already at his best.
I’d think working as a CEO would be ideal training grounds for learning to lie.
Agree 100%.
But don’t you think his audience were primarily Americans? The security, military type conservatives he was reaching out to but backfired on him. One thing though, Olympics are mania, no dissent or questioning is allowed in this type of situation. So much national pride is involved here. He should know this because he says he “saved” SLC Olympics. May be he never got out of the boardroom when he was managing SLC.
OT, had a date last nite and ended up staying home watching a tape delayed ceremony. What a lame show. NHS? Come on, it was a propaganda attempt that even Chinese could not have pulled it off. Lame, Lame, lame…….
Liked the costumes from Asian and African countries. Had to give it to the African Nations. The colors, styles and wide cheerful smiles, what’s else to say? Much respect.
His audience is Americans, but the item for consumption was foreign people admiring him and looking like they would want to work with him (or roll over for him) as the American president. Stories about how his insults were the one thing that could unite Londoners in support of the games and headlines about “Mitt the Twit” don’t send that image.
Well the idea MIGHT have been to get a reputation as somebody who “speaks truth to power” and can take “tough, unpopular stances,” in exactly the way that a politician CAN’T when talking about domestic policy. So he can get is “tough guy,” cred by saying “you’re doing a poopy job,” to foreigners who “don’t matter,” rather than, say detailing the cuts in domestic spending he’d make to pay for all the tax cuts that he’s promised.
‘Well the idea MIGHT have been to get a reputation as somebody who “speaks truth to power”…’
I’ll believe that the day he stops trash talking Obama and starts laying out in detail his plans for dealing with abortion, gay marriage, Social Security, future U.S. military involvement overseas, resolving the housing crisis, including shutdowns of the GSEs and eliminating the mortgage interest deduction, breaking up too-big-to-fail banks, bringing back U.S. employment, etc etc etc.
Fawning over The Donald or Jamie Dimon won’t convince me of anything.
So he can get is “tough guy,” cred by saying “you’re doing a poopy job,” to foreigners who “don’t matter,
Being panned by the Brits is a badge of honor amongst his voters, much like being booed by the NAACP.
He’ll be more careful with Israel, though. The neocons and the born-agains like Israel.
Oh I think that he badly misjudged things. But other than perhaps forcing him to softpeddle the “I fixed the Salt Lake City Olympics, I can fix the economy,” message I don’t think it will matter much.
I loved how the Brits referred to the 2002 SLC Winter Olympics as occurring “in the middle of nowhere.” SLC is a lovely town, but compared to London — come on! (This incident also reminds me of when Bryant Gumbel referred to BYU’s opponents as “Bo Diddley Tech” — LOLOLOLOL!!!)
I liked the Chariots of Fire meets Mr. Bean bit and the Queen meets James Bond, but the rest was rather meh, including Sir Paul McCartney.
“I’m surprised his staff hasn’t managed to educate him on this one yet.”
Really? Because based on what I know of the candidate through personal connections, I take the impression his packagers have failed him miserably.
Good leaders listen to the experts who work for them. There is no way that he wasn’t warned that he couldn’t trash talk the London Olympics. His handlers may not have gotten everything perfect, but his mistakes in London were huge. Trash talking their preparations for the games is the most visible one. Publicly talking about a meeting with MI6 is much worse.
“Publicly talking about a meeting with MI6 is much worse.”
That one is beyond the pale — especially since he has tried to crucify Obama for making political hay about getting Osama…candidates who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
“It does not bode well for any future skill as diplomat.”
He likes firing people! That’s cool.
Never mind London; I’m waiting for the Middle East.
This bear market rally has gone parabolic. Any thoughts on how long and high the bulls will run with it before the next big leg down?
Is Mr Market looking at additional near-term QE, or a central bank head fake?
7/27/2012 @ 8:20PM
Not So Fast, Bernanke And Draghi Have Disappointed Before
Sy Harding Sy Harding, Contributor
It was pretty much baked in the cake that the economy is slowing so rapidly that the Federal Reserve will have to come to the rescue, possibly as soon as its FOMC meeting next week. But not so fast.
…although the recovery is the second slowest from a recession in the post-war era, it has been somewhat stronger than previously thought, and the stumble in the first half of this year was not quite as severe as has been thought. That’s certainly good news.
This lowers the odds that the Fed will feel the need to come to the rescue with more stimulus, the hope that has been a major driving force for the market in the face of continuing dismal economic reports, tumbling corporate earnings, and downbeat warnings from some of the world’s largest transportation and industrial companies.
Meanwhile in Europe, on Thursday the president of the European Central Bank triggered a big rally in global markets with just a few words. Taking the microphone at an investment conference he said, “Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me it will be enough.”
Global markets immediately took off in strong rallies, ignoring the addition of still more bad news in individual economic reports like home sales, business spending, and crumbling corporate earnings in Europe and the U.S.
The eurozone debt crisis has been weighing on global confidence for more than two years now. The statement immediately raised hopes that the ECB is preparing to undertake a QE2 type bond-buying program similar to that undertaken by the Federal Reserve in the U.S. in 2010, which served to at least temporarily re-stimulate the U.S. economy from its 2010 stumble.
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QE3 is not coming, pbear.
How do you know this? I’m serious: Are you just offering an opinion, or do you have some basis in fact for your assertion.
QE3 is over. You blinked.
Maybe QE7 will be $3000 debit cards for all the little people?
Maybe QE7 will be $3000 debit cards for all the little people?
Dj, by then $3K will be worth so little that they will have to make it $30K instead.
A bull market driven by what? Maybe lots of OPM desperately looking for a decent return, coupled with lots of money managers desperately looking for money to manage?
People who structure their lives during a high-return world will find themselves stranded when the world shifts into a low-return mode. Promises that were made then will be tough to keep now.
So what is one to do? Chase the latest fad? Chase whatever it is that goes up in price? If enough people do this then prices are sure to rise and - presto! - you have before you a bull market.
But IMO a bull market fueled by times that are wonderful is a different type of bull market than one fueled by times that are tough.
“one fueled by times that are tough”
AKA bear market rally
It’s entirely up to the central bankers to keep the Wall Street bull stampede charging full steam ahead to the nearest cliff!
Rally drives S&P 500 to highest close since May 3
July 27, 2012|Caroline Valetkevitch | Reuters
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks surged on Friday, driving the S&P 500 to its highest close since May 3 as hopes increased that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may provide further stimulus.
Taken together, the S&P 500’s two-day move was its biggest since December, driven by optimism that central banks will ride to the rescue with more aid for the world economy. The S&P 500 rose 3.6 percent in those two days, and the moves come before key meetings of both the Fed and the ECB next week.
…
Stocks gain 1%-2% in week
Blue-chip index past 13,000 level last seen in May
Triple-digit gains for Dow and S&P extend into second session after comments out of Europe.
• Geithner to meet with top European leaders
I dunno but staffing companies are mopping up earnings left and right. Temp jobs are king. Usually temp jobs boom in recoveries. But some pundits think the hiring of temps is a long term phenomena. Manpower, Robert Half, KForce, and my company (I don’t want to name it) are doing very well. Not four quarters of record earnings. Try over eight quarters of record earnings!
The fundamentals are there. Sometimes the stock price does not reflect the earnings. Those are times smart people buy. I buy my company stock in a purchase plan. Though nowadays I save more cash than buy stocks.
If Obama is re-elected, it would be great for my staffing company. It likes communist health care.
p.s. I might do an Aladinsane deal in a few years, cash out my winnings, and join the pirate libertine startup boat planned 12 miles offshore of California to do R&D for my project.
http://edlab.tc.columbia.edu/index.php?q=node/6956
The nanny state sucks. Those who would give up a little of other people’s freedoms to have more security deserve neither freedom nor security.
There used to be gambling ships anchored beyond the three-mile-limit off of Southern California in the Forties that were put out of business by the state.
Because the start up boat will be twelve miles out does not guarantee that it won’t be messed with; One stroke of a pen will do the trick.
Anyone here remember the TV series “Mr. Lucky”?
I get it. But I think the State will be known as the big bad wolf if it crushes a ship full of nerds who are innocently creating technology in their own legal non-country outside any nation.
There are plenty of tech nerds who are very libertarian already and it’s really been that way for decades. Most engineers I know are against the government meddling in any business. Out of every 20 engineers I have ever known in various places coast to coast, one would want big government nanny state.
“But I think the State will be known as the big bad wolf if it crushes a ship full of nerds who are innocently creating technology in their own legal non-country outside any nation.”
You are talking about off the coast of California, right? California, a state desperate for money?
A state governed by a group of incompetent fools who drove it into a state desperate for money?
The - what? - the eighth largest economy on the planet driven to become an economy desperate for money?
And you expect rational behavior?
“Most engineers I know are against the government meddling in any business.”
OK. The big federal government will be delighted to stop enforcing patent rights.
The cost of no enforceable patents may be well worth bearing in exchange for more economic freedom offshore. The equations are changing more and more for people to want to let go of these government er, “services” in the quest for liberty.
Hmmmm … if a group of pirates were to decide to storm this nation-less ship who would be there to stop them?
The cost of no enforceable patents may be well worth bearing in exchange for more economic freedom offshore.
And once corporate America/China/Japan/Korea/Germany/France/etc. quickly reverse engineer your inventions, then what?
Tell me 1) why would pirates storm the ship and 2) if you think that the engineers who work there would actually store gold or other wealth on the same ship instead of move it to other countries such as Belize.
The wealth would mostly be in the brains of those people. Tell me how a pirate will store the contents of those brains. There would be little to steal otherwise.
They might just torpedo your ass, on General Principle.
“Most of the engineers I know are against the government meddling in any business”
Seeing as how you are a contractor working for the government, I’m guessing most of the engineers you know are probably in the same boat.
Which makes your statement hilarious. They don’t seem to mind “government meddling” when it comes to who writes their paychecks.
“The wealth would mostly be in the brains of those people.”
Steal the people and at the same time you steal the people’s wealthy brains.
No mean feat if there is nobody around commited to stopping it.
“1. Why would pirates storm the ship?”
Same reason Somalians do? Because they can?
“Tell me how a pirate will store the contents of those brains.”
By keeping them in the skulls of the people they whisk off the ship. If their price of keeping the skulls intact are not met by those who care then the skulls get bashed in.
“Because the start up boat will be twelve miles out does not guarantee that it won’t be messed with; One stroke of a pen will do the trick.”
California acts as though it owns the ocean at least out to the 200 mile U.S. territorial limit, if not beyond…
One should reasonably expect a certain human action if the perceived risk/reward ratio favors such an action.
The Somalii pirates continue doing what they are doing because the risk/reward ratio favors them. If you want to stop them being pirates then you need to alter the risk/reward ratio. Same principle applies to the highly lucrative drug trade.
If there is little risk to storming a nationless ship and at the same time there is some reward for doing so (and the reward doesn’t have to be all that large, it just has to be somewhat larger than the risk) then the ship is destined to be stormed.
X-GSFixer.
Time to whip out my Lew Rockwell column once again. The government commands a monopoly on technology jobs. If I do not work then I do not improve myself and build up enough wealth to overcome it.
But here goes for another one of you with memories the lifespan of a common house fly:
“Pay Up or Die” by Laurence M. Vance
http://lewrockwell.com/vance/vance279.html
I am sure I will have to repost this more for lames like Alpha, Polly, and other fellow nanny staters when they forget within the next 12 days (lifespan of a common house fly)
“If there is little risk to storming a nationless ship and at the same time there is some reward for doing so (and the reward doesn’t have to be all that large, it just has to be somewhat larger than the risk) then the ship is destined to be stormed.”
The same logic explains why Megabanksters routinely commit crimes with multi-trillion dollar payoffs at a cost of the occasional multi-million dollar wrist slap.
Bloomberg News
Barclays Sorry for Libor-Rigging as Profit Beats Estimates
By Howard Mustoe and Gavin Finch on July 27, 2012
Barclays Plc (BARC), the British lender fined for rigging Libor, apologized for its role in the scandal as it posted first-half profit that beat analysts’ estimates.
Pretax profit excluding one-time items rose 13 percent to 4.23 billion pounds ($6.6 billion), the London-based bank said in a statement today. That beat the 3.9 billion-pound median prediction of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
“We are sorry for what has happened,” Chairman Marcus Agius said in the statement. “However, our leadership continues to focus on the delivery of our financial performance targets.”
Barclays’s attempts to put its regulatory troubles behind it were complicated today as it said four employees, including Finance Director Chris Lucas, are being probed over the disclosure of fees related to the bank’s fundraising in 2008. The lender, whose three top executives stepped down after the bank fined a record 290 million pounds last month for Libor- rigging, also disclosed it was the target of more lawsuits in the U.S. related to the scandal.
…
Yep. Make the perceived risk outweigh the perceived reward and you’ll get some behavioral changes.
(Note the use of the word “perceived”).
It wouldn’t take pirates, the first big storm to hit the ship they’d be calling the nanny state, for “HELP!!!”
Probably why they want to be so close to shore.
And I do find it amusing and revealing that they’re following in the same footsteps as the scientologists. Birds of a feather…
bil, this is a joke right? otherwise you are just revealing yourself very eloquently.
“tell me 1) why would pirates storm the ship and 2) if you think that the engineers who work there would actually store gold or other wealth on the same ship instead of move it to other countries such as Belize.
the wealth would mostly be in the brains of those people. Tell me how a pirate will store the contents of those brains. There would be little to steal otherwise.”
Something that crossed my mind with this offshore platform is that it has to be incredibly expensive to build and operate. Wouldn’t it be more cost effective to get H1-B visas for those foreign geniuses, who would probably be a lot happier living in Silly Valley than on some glorified oil derrick?
The government commands a monopoly on technology jobs.
Quit whining and grasping at empty justifications Bill in LA.
You don’t walk the walk on your empty dogma. You’ve proved it by working for the government, by working on military stuff that you say is unconstitutional and in now whining that you’re now somehow a “victim” and that you “had no choice”.
You’ve proved by you life choices that your “libertarianism” is hot air.
“Communist” health care is better than no health care at all.
Reread my post that with “free” health care (communist health care), there are always people on the unfortunate side of the gun.
You are for initiation of force (you look for security and prefer giving up other people’s freedoms for your security).
My company is taking advantage of staffing health care jobs with the enormous bureaucracy coming up. Potentially 30 million more people getting health care.
We are headed down the road to serfdom. But if I’m lucky and get a $1 million gain from my health care staffing stock, I’m going see if it’s worthwhile to become a part time resident of another country but spend 183 consecutive days in the U.S. Don’t know which country though. Preference is English-speaking.
I am watchful of the economic freedom index put out by the Heritage Foundation and the order of most free starts with Hong Kong, followed by Singapore, Australia, then New Zealand and then Switzerland.
but spend 183 consecutive days in the U.S.
What’s the reason for that very-specific number, Bill? Tax implications?
You must spend at least six consecutive months in the U.S. to retain U.S. citizenship. 183 days is the actual minimum.
To be super cautious, it’s a smart thing to have international addresses and be multi national. I think technology is available now to make multi national citizenship possible for most professional people.
I have had this tech idea since the late 1990s that only became more and more feasible with new software technology the last few years and it will basically free us from the nation state. We need it now more than ever. It’s a double boon for me because I’m a radical libertarian at heart and I can also make money off of it. But my job and my daily fitness rituals take a big bite out of my time!
Hong Kong, followed by Singapore, Australia, then New Zealand and then Switzerland
Interestingly, all five of those countries have universal health care, if this Wikipedia page is correct:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_health_coverage_by_country
Bill,
Are you sure that it is citizenship and not residency that requires 183 days in the USA. So far as I know, the US does not strip citizenship for being out of the country that long. You might want to check out Gilbraltar or the Jersey Islands a places to set up a second home. I seem to remember favourable tax laws and minimal residency requirements for those places but I haven’t looked at them in detail.
Interestingly, all five of those countries have universal health care, if this Wikipedia page is correct
Everybody has Universal Healthcare, except for the USA.
BiLA just doesn’t want to pay taxes. Hence his pining to write software while living on an oversized drilling platform.
I suppose that if that sucker sinks in a nasty storm he won’t be expecting the US Coast Guard to come to his rescue either.
I guess I’m a communist then, if it means that I don’t believe in all of this Randian/Libertarian/Free market dogma you are pushing.
Well the problem with you HBB communists is that you won’t stop for socialized health care. You will want more socialism beyond that. It has to stop somewhere. The road to serfdom is when the weak-brained prefer security to allowing other people to live freedom peacefully.
Well the problem with you HBB communists is that you won’t stop for socialized health care.
The problem with most “Libertarians” is they’re all hot air - all hat and no cattle.
I have worked in many shops, including one quasi-government and another full-government. I’ve always marveled at the ranks of government employees who fashion themselves as “libertarian.” Something about that doesn’t fit…
bil please don’t go. we need you here then.
“The road to serfdom is when the weak-brained prefer security to allowing other people to live freedom peacefully.”
“Temp jobs are king. Usually temp jobs boom in recoveries.”
They also boom after Six Sigma-driven numbers forecast their own false reality. Their numbers say one thing (such as “Less”) and so the numbers are adjusted accordingly.
Later on the Real World numbers assert themselves and these numbers say “Not Enough - We Need More”, and so “Less” loses its sway and ends up being replaced by “More”.
“More” means more hiring - more hiring includes temps. And temps - as opposed to permanents - will be the mode of hiring until upper management “gets it” and realizes that - deep down - Six Sigma sucks and the Six Sigma numbers also suck. It’s then that the permanents will be hired (that’s if the company can remain in business).
At least this has been my observation.
“I agree with Ben’s comment about the storm that’s on it’s way. It’s global in scope. I’ve seen it up close in 18+ countries.”
The thing is, this storm has been on the horizon for the last 10 years now. In 2008 it looked like the storm was finally upon us only for central bankers to push it away with ultra low interest rates.
Its clear now that politicians will do whatever it takes to avoid a bubble collapse. At this point I know some of you will be thinking “Politicians can do what they like but financial gravity will win in the end”, but I’m not so sure. They can legislate cram-downs or they can halt or slow to a trickle forclosures, and if this makes the banks insolvent they can nationalize the banks if necessary - that’s already happened in the UK for example and in other places like China and India the banks have always been state owned.
“In 2008 it looked like the storm was finally upon us only for central bankers to push it away with ultra low interest rates.”
Not sure exactly which ’storm’ you are talking about, but U.S. housing prices cratered during and after 2008. I see nothing to prevent this from happening in due time the same way, or worse, in Australia, China, Canada and India.
Further, based on global financial contagion currently spilling out of the Eurozone, I expect these future national housing bubble collapses to inflict severe economic disruption on other nations’ economies.
According to this article from this past week, U.S. home prices have been dropping for five years (2012 - 5 = 2007), but have now bottomed out. So apparently the storm you suggested is still offshore has already inflicted lots of damage to the “Ownership Society” portion of the U.S. household sector.
Housing market bottoms; first price increase in 5 years: Zillow
New homes under construction and for sale in Alhambra. Zillow says the housing market has bottomed, with prices making their first year-over-year increase since 2007. (Frederic J. Brown / AFP / Getty Images / July 24, 2012)
July 24, 2012, 10:03 a.m.
Housing prices appear to have bottomed, posting their first year-over-year increase since 2007 and fueling more talk of a real estate recovery – at least according to real estate site Zillow.
The site’s second-quarter report shows nationwide home values inching up 0.2% from the same quarter in 2011 to a median of $149,300. On a monthly basis, prices have been rising for four straight months.
Nearly a third of individual metro areas saw prices rise; in Phoenix alone, homes were worth 12.1% more compared to a year ago, according to Zillow.
“The housing recovery is holding together despite lower-than-expected job growth, indicating that it has some organic strength of its own,” Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said in a statement.
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Not sure exactly which ’storm’ you are talking about, but U.S. housing prices cratered during and after 2008.
Who cares, when that $300k house (at 8-9% financing) used to cost $800k but now costs $600k?
I used to be one of the “wait until rates go up” types. I’ve since abandoned that after observing the Japanese model. That’s not to say the whole thing worldwide won’t collapse, but it’s pretty clear there is zero motivation to take any medicine.
Who cares, when that $300k house (at 8-9% financing) used to cost $800k but now costs $600k?
+1, sleepless. Prices are still ridiculous in Seattle; a 30% downturn did not go anywhere near taking things back to where they were before the insanity hit.
And I’ll take it a step further to say that most of us on the HBB are in our 30s - 50s, so if any correction back to pre-bubble pricing occurs in the next 1-5 years, great (assuming a correction that fast means one still has a job). I can’t control it but, selfishly speaking, I don’t want to wait another 15-20 years for a correction. It’s already been almost nine (NINE!) years since the inception of this blog.
‘Politicians can do what they like but financial gravity will win in the end”, but I’m not so sure’
First, I don’t care one person in world even hears what I think. It doesn’t change a thing for me.
Second, as usual, it’s already here and most people ignore it:
‘ When the Census Bureau this month released a new measure of poverty, meant to better count disposable income, it began altering the portrait of national need. Perhaps the most startling differences between the old measure and the new involves data the government has not yet published, showing 51 million people with incomes less than 50 percent above the poverty line. That number of Americans is 76 percent higher than the official account, published in September. All told, that places 100 million people — one in three Americans — either in poverty or in the fretful zone just above it.’
‘After a lost decade of flat wages and the worst downturn since the Great Depression, the findings can be thought of as putting numbers to the bleak national mood — quantifying the expressions of unease erupting in protests and political swings. They convey levels of economic stress sharply felt but until now hard to measure.’
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/19/us/census-measures-those-not-quite-in-poverty-but-struggling.html?pagewanted=all
“…it’s already here and most people ignore it…”
You can post evidence about how poor everyone is getting these days, and I can post evidence about how far U.S. housing prices have dropped since 2007, and we will still have posters here pretending nothing has changed in the past five years.
It’s like the financial press and how people view the world. I see stuff like ’stocks soar on stimulus hopes’ or QE3′. Not rising profits, or hiring, but hand-outs or money printing. (The stock market is a casino anyway).
‘Stocks took off at the end of the week, drawn by the allure of a helping hand from the world’s two most powerful central banks. Traders are unlikely to resist those charms again next week.’
Or like this week, the Euro is gonna be saved by, printing more Euros! That’s like saving Facebook by creating more Facebook shares. But it passes for ‘optimism’ these days. I’m an optimist too, but not in the rah-rah way.
IMO, one has to look at things critically. When I first arrived in Arizona in 2003, I asked everyone I met where they were from. I was surprised when about half told me California, and most of those had moved in the past few years. They would go on about how great the weather was, the real estate market was booming, etc. I’d always follow that with, why did you leave? Different reasons of course, but it was clear that the golden boom wasn’t what it seemed. That’s just one example of how all the headlines, the so-called common knowledge can be completely wrong.
If China is this economic juggernaut, why are they building ghost cities? Bullet trains to nowhere? Why are their rich pouring money into houses all over the world? And if this perception on China is so wrong, what other things about this global economy are out of whack too?
“Not rising profits, or hiring, but hand-outs or money printing…”
= unsustainable bear market rally — enjoy picking up the nickels right up until the steamroller catches up to you!
Very good questions, especially about China, Ben.
My thinking is that pseudo capitalism in China has rewarded those connected to the top polit bureau (mainly families). These people have never had so much money come their way. And knowing that these ill gotten gains are not long lasting, Chinese are spending their IGGs everywhere other than China in the one thing that they know - real estate.
If you look at India, the populace have the largest holdings of gold - this built over centuries of habit - I cannot fathom why despite the invasions from Persian kings to ransack the Indian temples and take away the gold (Mohammed of Gazni - came in 17 times apparently, but nobody learned). Anyway, during the recent craze starting in 2005, regular people went away from gold and into real estate. Talk about global brainwashing.
Now in two of the most populous (and extremely poor) countries, the wealth disparity is growing rapidly: In china we see people parking their money in western democracies. In India - I don’t know what is happening - apparently, there are capital controls and people cannot move money away.
The question that begets your point is: where are the rich Americans, Europeans parking their money? See the poor are relatively the same all over the globe - looking for basic necessities to live. If there is a jubilee all over (China/ US) - it is the rich that have the most to lose. So I think the rich chinese with their IGGs are fleeing to places where they think that they can get by. In the end if they have housing and live unobtrusive lives, it may be hard for their native investigators to come after all of them.
How to view these things and what might happen is tricky. There is a lot of manufacturing, etc going on in China for instance. But in the 70’s and 80’s, there was a lot of oil and gas produced in Texas and the other oil states. Oil plummeted, and real estate proved to be in a bubble. Would the RE bubble have popped if oil had stayed high indefinitely? Yes, and here’s why; the oil drop exposed rampant corruption and speculation at the S&L’s and banks. The overbuilding, it was just waiting to crash, but masked by the oil boom. Before it collapsed, the press reported the S&L’s were making everyone around them rich. We all know what a delusion that turned out to be.
So if China isn’t a juggernaut, what is it? How much of what we see and read will fall away?
Similarly, as I came to suspect California wasn’t the land of milk and honey a few years ago, I wondered what it really was. And how it’s all playing out couldn’t have been foreseen perfectly, IMO. So we’ll just have to wait and see. But I have always maintained that the economic pain will probably be in proportion to the level of speculation & or corruption, no matter what part of the global mania you examine. Now I have to add, the economic pain also rises with efforts to forestall the correction.
“rampant corruption and speculation at the S&L’s and banks.”
This is true for wall street and politics. Only the majority of the public is not aware of it. The voting public themselves are polarized in rooting for their own interest, however misguided it may seem to others. I think essentially this is “survival of the fittest” mode. Unless the jobs scenario changes there will be simply not enough demand for housing.
Talking about jobs: I am completely at a loss to figure out where these can come from. Technology? Medicine? Services? Food? Entertainment? IMHO, we are peak everything from all the above and housing, commodities. The world is over 7 billion people - this was supposed to be the limit, but is not - there is plenty of labor, but not enough living-wage jobs that can sustain aging countries. The pain will have to come to rebalance the economy here and elsewhere. It will be severe no doubt. The question is really when will it come. I am thinking the next 3-4 years.
It’s the anticipation of financial asset inflation. Unlike higher profits leading to higher dividends, higher asset prices are a zero sum game. Kind of like house prices. For every extra dollar the seller receives because of higher prices, the buyer has to pay an extra dollar to receive the benefits of ownership. (whether that benefit is housing, future dividends, or future price appreciation). This is why it is a FUNDAMENTAL mistake to use the stock market as a sort of barometer for how the economy is doing. The pricing is dominated by speculation of future asset prices, not the underlying profitability of companies.
“The pricing is dominated by speculation of future asset prices, not the underlying profitability of companies.”
Reams of academic research, including the contents of this classic, suggest you are wrong.
Of course, you are entitled to your opinion, including one that says academics are generally full of gas.
Political arguments aside, there are certain Eddie-tard HBB posters spouting the “wait time at Applebee’s” barometer of the alleged health of the economy.
There is another economy outside of their lily-white, upper middle class, suburban bubble that is invisible to them. Ask anyone who was laid off after the age of 50 how the “recovery” is working out for them.
The term “I have to go to work” is morphing into “I get to go to work”.
“wait time at Applebee’s”
This is an unreliable indicator, as the wait time at Applebee’s could go up if those who used to go to fine restaurants can no longer afford them, and now go to cheap franchises instead.
We see this in our area — Miguel’s Cocina is booming, since it replaced the far more upscale Zócalo. To their credit, Brigantine Restaurants adapted their dining concept to the economic times we live in.
I am referring to an attempted RV purchase that was allegedly thwarted by other buyers showing up minutes earlier. A true Eddie-tard anecdote if there ever was one…
I think we are all underestimating the amount of free cash that’s available when millions dont pay a mortgage or rent.
I notice a lot of unused RV inventory stashed in driveways and backyards here in So. Cal
(lots of boats too). If I were in the market for an RV (or a boat) I’d do a bit of knocking on doors; Maybe I’d uncover an RV that would be offered to me for a price that approaches free.
People get stuck in inertia; There are things they want to do, need to do, (such as get rid of the RV or the boat) but they never quite get around to doing it. Show up and make an offer and maybe you can strike a deal that would be of benfit to both of you.
“…all underestimating the amount of free cash that’s available when millions dont pay a mortgage or rent…”
Trailer cash
The funny thing about Eddie/Smithers is that while he hates Obama with a passion for being a poor president (maybe not as much as banana and our resident NY DJ, but he doesn’t like the “socialist” prez) he insists that everything is great and people have money to spend. So does “socialism” work or not?
The Irish Times - Saturday, July 28, 2012
Rally continues as markets expect bond-buying from ECB
SUZANNE LYNCH
THURSDAY’S BOND market rally continued yesterday, with Spanish and Italian bond yields continuing to fall as German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president François Hollande gave a joint commitment to safeguard the euro.
Ireland also took part in the general bond market rally, which was fuelled by market expectation of future bond-buying by the ECB, signalled by comments from the central bank chief, Mario Draghi.
The new 2017 bond issued by the NTMA on Thursday at a yield of 5.9 per cent was yesterday evening trading at 5.75 per cent.
Peter Cosgrave of Dolmen Securities in Dublin said that while the fall in yields showed “continued interest” in Irish bonds, the strengthening of Irish bonds was also symptomatic of the rally in bond markets generally.
Ten-year Spanish debt was trading at 6.75 per cent, having hit a euro-era high of 7.75 per cent on Wednesday.
Italian government debt of the same maturity fell to 5.96 per cent yesterday evening.
In a joint statement yesterday, the French and German leaders said their countries were “bound by the deepest duty” to keep the euro area intact.
…
Well I`m shocked!
My former victim DBLL who collected $45,800 in rent without making a mortgage payment over the last 2 1/2 years while recieving a workout in the middle of that time frame which allowed him to collect the other half of the $45k has put “his” house up for a short sale.
I guess the bank just wasn`t willing to give him another chance. What was that IRS rat link again?
The explanation and a link to the form/description of what should go in the letter is here:
http://www.irs.gov/individuals/article/0,,id=106778,00.html
and if you lose it again, you can just go to irs.gov and search for “report tax fraud”
One of these days, a serial bottom caller is going to get this right. After that, he will never let us hear the end of it about his successful bottom call. I personally expect to see a material increase in transactions volume, with a price bottom following some time later, before I am whatsoever convinced a bottom is in place. This will only be visible through the rear-view mirror, and we are not there yet, particularly given the mountain of homes currently in default that will take years for the market to work through.
July 24, 2012, 7:47 a.m. ET
CONSUMER FINANCE: Home Prices Reach a Bottom, Zillow Says
–Website Zillow says home values have hit bottom and are on the rise
–Slight gain in second quarter marks first annual increase since 2007
–Zillow predicts a 1.1% increase in home values over the next year
By Amy Hoak
CHICAGO–National home values have hit bottom and are on the rise, the real-estate website Zillow reported in a news release on Tuesday.
“After four months with rising home values and increasingly positive forecast data, it seems clear that the country has hit a bottom in home values,” Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said in a news release. “The housing recovery is holding together despite lower-than-expected job growth, indicating that it has some organic strength of its own.”
Values of U.S. homes rose 0.2% in the second quarter, compared with the same time period a year ago, marking the first annual increase in values since 2007, Zillow reported.
Phoenix had the largest home-value gain; values were up 12.1% there during the second quarter, compared with the same period last year. All told, values rose in 53 of the 167 markets covered in Zillow’s Real Estate Market Reports, which is aggregated from public sources.
Moreover, Zillow predicted a 1.1% increase in home values over the next year. Values are expected to rise in 67 of the 156 markets in Zillow’s Home Value Forecast, which uses data and market conditions to predict home values.
“Of course, there is still some risk as we look down the foreclosure pipeline and see foreclosure starts picking up. This will translate into more homes on the market by the end of the year, but we think demand will rise to absorb that, particularly in markets where there are acute inventory shortages now,” Humphries said. “Looking forward, we expect home values to remain relatively flat as the market works through a backlog of foreclosures and high rates of negative equity.”
Zillow reported that 5.8 out of every 10,000 homes were lost to foreclosure in June, down from 7.9 of every 10,000 homes lost in January. But the number of foreclosures is expected to increase, based on a pickup in foreclosure starts since the completion of the National Foreclosure Settlement, the company said in the release.
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P-bear, what do you think of my idea that we’re bouncing along the bottom, as inventory is bled out? And that different types of homes in different areas are bottoming at different times?
Calling a bottom in the US now is like saying that a broken clock is always right — because it’s always that time somewhere in the world.
Maybe it would be more helpful to determine the price of homes
considering min wage as the affordability average .
Exactly. The initial bubble burst in places like Florida, California and Arizona. The bubble we are seeing now is nationwide, because incomes are falling faster than house prices.
For better or worse, our government/corporations have decided to equalize middle class pay and benefits in the US and China.
Maybe it would be more helpful to determine the price of homes considering min wage as the affordability average
My experience in Mexico in the 70’s and early 80’s was that housing remained utterly unaffordable for the working class during that period. If you owned a condo or a house you were either a white collar professional (condo) or business owner/member of the managerial class (house). Everyone else either rented a hovel, or squatted on federally owned land in the ubiquitous cardboard shacks.
“Everyone else either rented a hovel, or squatted on federally owned land in the ubiquitous cardboard shacks.”
If you tried that here you would be arrested, and your cardboard shack razed.
Too many extraordinary factors are currently in play, including the lowest long-term rates on record, massive infusions of federally-guaranteed loanable funds from the defunct GSEs and the FHA, and a very slow pace of foreclosing on defaulted mortgages, an unresolved Eurozone debt crisis which threatens to throw the entire Westernized world back into recession, a looming U.S. fiscal cliff, and a persistently high U.S. unemployment rate which is actually worse than it looks, due to a record number of working age Americans who have dropped out of the labor force, for me to be convinced a sustainable bottom is in place.
“And that different types of homes in different areas are bottoming at different times?”
That I can agree with more easily. Even here in San Diego, we have areas where prices dropped by well over 50% compared to others (like ours) where the declines were nowhere near as steep.
Yeah, I think that different areas and market segments have become so divergent that looking calling “The” bottom is fruitless exercise. But it is certainly the case that in many markets the “hidden inventory” is being let out in a dribble with the hope that prices will not continue further downward. Once prices go up a little, more inventory appears.
‘But it is certainly the case that in many markets the “hidden inventory” is being let out in a dribble with the hope that prices will not continue further downward.’
It’s also the case that baby boomers waiting ‘until prices come back’ will eventually find themselves forced to put homes on the market that no longer make sense for them to live in, and this fundamentally-driven supply deluge will overwhelm lender manipulation of shadow inventory.
Some commentators are not so sure a bottom is in, but are entirely certain prices will soon “come back,” I guess since California real estate always goes up, in the long run.
Never mind Japan’s twenty-year-long counter example…
Jul 24, 2012
Zillow is calling a housing bottom. What is Zillow talking about?
By Matthew DeBord
Construction On New Homes Falls In July
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
A construction worker on the top of a home under construction at a new housing development on in Petaluma, California. If we have hit bottom, we may start seeing more of this kind of activity.
Zillow, the online real estate service, has called a bottom for the U.S. housing market. Literally. This is from today’s release:
A rise of 0.2 percent may not be terribly significant, so take this all with a healthy grain of salt — and an awareness that Zillow, as Chicago Now’s Gary Lucido points out, indexes home values based on its own metrics, rather than on actual sales, as does the important Case-Shiller index*.
Case-Shiller for May comes out next week, so you can look at Zillow’s pronouncement and say, “Hmmm…interesting timing!” And you’d be on to something, because Case-Shiller has been signalling at least the formation of a bottom in U.S. housing prices for a few months now.
Los Angeles, for example, is working its way back to 2011 levels.
But it’s absolutely critical to remember that a bottom isn’t the same thing as a restoration of an upward price trend. As I wrote back in September, when the home-price situation looked much more precarious, “[i]n terms of making homeowning into a financially beneficially proposition again, Southland residents are going to have to think long-term. Very long-term.”
Why? Because the hitting bottom still means you have to crawl out of the cavern. So if we do see prices in Southern California and elsewhere begin to stabilize and ascend, we will then commence the potentially lengthy process of waiting for prices to recover to previous levels. That could take several years.
* BwaHaHAhAHAAHAHAHAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!
“Los Angeles, for example, is working its way back to 2011 levels.”
Is this an ‘improvement’ or an ‘affordability increase’?
It depends on if you are a seller or a buyer.
Went to a Trustee Sale yesterday. The flipper (regulars known as “heavy hitters”/were a-holes) were taken up in price by the Trustee Rep bidding for the Beneficiary. High price paid at auction plus redo, translates to $100K-$150K upswing in prices around here. Marginal neighborhoods are going for $425K-$450K. A few flips are selling, which gets the slum homeowners to increase their price. Bubblicious times in Ventura County (So Ca).
The BKs on the foreclosure subscription website are becoming the norm. It’s the new modification replacement.
The BKs on the foreclosure subscription website are becoming the norm. It’s the new modification replacement.
BK is the modification that actually works…
Prime
Thank you. You must be a legal eagle. It’s sad to see a home purchased for $280K pre-bubble, and the loans total $1M dollars, and the a-hole has a newer Expedition in the driveway, yet the 1964 windows still there. Not one dime back into the joint (visual anyway) and they owe that much and are filing a BK. Hope the stay is overtuned on the house.
Ben Jones in his post above brings up a point that has been bugging
me for a long time . In essence ,why aren’t they measuring the economy by the economic status of Americans as a whole ? If you have 100 million people considered on poverty levels ,and no doubt a huge % in need of welfare or food stamps or viable jobs ,than why isn’t this the measuring stick for how good this economy is doing ?Why is printing dollars or a rigged Stock Market casino the gage for the
health of the economy ? It’s no doubt that the Stock Market is not a reflection of the economic health of the majority population in USA .
100 million stressed Americans aren’t going to be buyers for houses ,
and no doubt those stressd Americans will add to the foreclosure count given enought time and they won’t be buyers in the near future
unless their economic conditions improve ,and they are going to be a drain on the welfare systems no doubt .
So all this talk about giving Business a break in taxes because they create jobs doesn’t prove that they will give those jobs at a decent wage . Maybe a condition should be that it has to be American jobs that they give .
Does American even have a economy that is decoupled from the World economy any more ,or is it just how good Corporations or Financial systems are doing World Wide ?
Ben Jones mentioned China building all these Cities with nobody living in them . What’s that all about ,that seems nuts .
As far as I’m concerned the World has gone mad and nothing is
gaged on the real health and purchasing power of the actual population in any given Country .
We have a mentality of it being a great thing if house prices rise . That use to be a bad thing that house prices rose and put more people out of the affordability range .In fact, house prices use to tract with
income and the demand being tied to wages and the ability to qualify
for a loan .
it’s clear that the hijacking of the American economic systems has taken place and it’s apparent in even how the economy is rated ,decoupled from the population . As long as the hyped up Stock Market is doing good
the economy is suppose to be doing good, in spite of 100 million Americans on the brink of starvation or insolvency .it’s nuts ,its nuts ,
isn’t it ?
Ok ,sorry for the rant ,but I don’t see that Main Street USA isn’t going more and more downhill .
Answers to your questions…..
The politicos/movers and shakers have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. Rioting in the streets is not the status quo. So they use cooked stats and their buddies in the Multinational Media to paint as rosy a picture as possible.
Main Street is going down the crapper because about a dozen different Wall Street chickens are coming home to roost. Among them (in no particular order):
-Favorable tax/policy treatment of the “investor class”, vs. the “labor class”
-Trade/tax policies that favor off shoring every job you can, and “outsourcing” US jobs that can’t be off-shored.
-Transfer of Federal/State/Local tax burdens to Middle class workers and property owners
-Theoretical “Free Market” trade policies.
-A “defense” policy that has morphed into a “Defense of Free Trade” policy, where the whole world theoretically benefits, but the cost (in lost jobs, money and blood) is paid by the US Middle Class
-An environmental movement that has significantly raised to cost of/made it impossible to do business in the US.
-A “legal” environment that somehow allows too many “frivolous” lawsuits, while at the same time gives most corporate/white collar law breakers a “Get out of Jail Free” card.
X-GSfixr,so I believe all the the reasons you stated above ,so what is American going to be, just some third world economic type outpost that is subservient to the greater good of everything but the USA worker class majority ?How are a bunch of poverty bound previous middle class even going to be able to afford to make up for the taxes that are spared the Investor Class ,or the I % or 10 % or the Corporation tax breaks . How are they even going to be able to collect enough tax to take care of the type of welfare that will eventually be needed or the social services that would be needed if these trends continue .
Given the current trends ,wouldn’t a critical mass of people eventually rebel against this and even try to decouple from the systems that aren’t designed now to even protect the majority populations interest in maintaining a reasonable standard of living with jobs ?
How are they even going to be able to collect enough tax to take care of the type of welfare that
What are you talking about? The rich have no interest in providing welfare.
Wiz, your problem is that you’re thinking like a regular human. You need to stop doing that.
When you come to the inevitable conclusion that the 1% class, wherever they are, believes that the rest of us are interchangeable with Juan6Packo in Nuevo Laredo or Xian6Pack in Harbin, things will make sense.
As long as the serfs fantasies can be kept alive.
Once the rich reach a certain level of wealth, the only way to feel wealthier is to force everybody else farther into poverty.
They crave that wealthier feeling like a junkie craves smack, and will do whatever it takes to get it.
Wiz, your problem is that you’re thinking like a regular human. You need to stop doing that.
Let’s face it- you don’t have to be a psychopath to be a member of the 1%, but it sure helps!
“Let’s face it- you don’t have to be a psychopath to be a member of the 1%, but it sure helps!”
It sure does. Just ask that nutcase Mitt!
From yesterday’s Bits Bucket:
“Sorry, but I am just not impressed, where is his critical thinking skills”
(NYCdj talking about Barrack Obama)
This gave me a lot of laughs. Like or dislike Obama, he’s a highly intelligent man. NYCdj… not so much.
Hey guys, where is DJ’s critical thinking skills?
Hiding behind his command of the English language and his cultural sensitivity?
Funny…..when i see Sharpton apologize in person to those white duke lacrosse players, or Ohbahma demand high bail for those 7 teenage thugs brutally beating a white 13 yer old girl unconscious because she wanted the last seat on the school bus….like a reverse Rosa Parks….then will will be on the right path to justice
Any more strawmen left in the bin?
Affirmative Action In Bank Lending Policy Promises Financial Disaster
Forbes | 07/26/2012 | Bill Flax
Welcome to the bizarre world of banking regulation. Despite the recent disaster wrought by affirmative action lending, Washington ratchets up still more politically correct requirements and shifts the measure of discrimination towards “disparate impact.” Even unbiased behaviors are subject to penalty unless they benefit protected classes.
It’s no longer blind justice meted equally before the law. “Diversity” has become Washington’s Holy Grail, discharging unequal justice in preference for specific outcomes. The burden on businesses expands beyond banning discrimination into virtually requiring reverse discrimination.
Recall before the Great Recession, banks supposedly did not sufficiently extend credit for minorities and less affluent customers. After considerable prodding, lenders lessened standards to accommodate federal guidelines. Politically correct underwriting practices begot financial turmoil.
Washington Mutual was only permitted to consummate a merger in 1999 after committing $120 billion (over ten years) to poor and minority borrowers. And get this: throw two percent of earnings to radicals like ACORN. WaMu subsequently suffocated under toxic debt securities.
While debased dollars and manipulated interest rates spurring mal-investment were the primary catalysts, politically charged housing quotas doused the flames of financial distress with an accelerant. It was as certain as gravity that groups heavily represented as subprime borrowers would also disproportionately stiff lenders.
As the crisis unfolded, the initial outcry blasted banks for evicting helpless homeowners. The only people losing property were those who hadn’t honored their mortgages. When borrowers put little down and don’t pay their debts it’s curious they “lost” something, leastwise “their” homes, but political correctness necessitates blaming banks.
And people call us racist for demanding equality and responsibility.
“…committing $120 billion (over ten years) to poor and minority borrowers. And get this: throw two percent of earnings to radicals like ACORN. WaMu subsequently suffocated under toxic debt securities.”
The ACORN people got their way: Mortgage lending targeted at minorities was never higher than in the early 2000s. Too bad that so many of those currently facing foreclosure and financial ruin were among the beneficiaries of this discriminatory lending to minority borrowers.
Moral of the story: Watch out what you wish for!
Moral of the story: Watch out what you wish for!
Reminds me of ‘Easy Rider’. They went looking for America, found it, and it shot them.
Thelma and Louise had a similar happy ending, as I recall.
A couple things;
1) “Disparate Impact” is used as a measure for “potential” discrimination because no one puts out memo’s saying let’s not (or not) hire/loan to/pull over {Insert Race} people. Discrimination is more insidious than that and happens by using criteria that is non-facially discriminatory, but accomplishes the same thing. From a legal perspective however just because something causes a disparate impact doesn’t mean its not permitted, it just means that when there is a disparate impact its shifts the burden of the accused to show that the action had a legitimate non-discriminatory purpose. On its face demanding that my employees grow a beard is not on its face discriminatory, but absence a legitimate need for facial hair (perhaps playing Santa Claus) it will wind up eliminating most women from the position.
2) White people can be such b*tchy little girls, especially when they pretend that being white doesn’t give them all sorts of advantages that all the “affirmative action” in the world could never equal. When was the last time a security guards followed you around a store?
Drought and fish:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/27/us-usa-drought-fish-idUSBRE86Q13Y20120727
Forbes = Faux News, print edition
In my many years in corporate aviation, I’ve noticed one thing.
Like everybody else, the movers and shakers believe what the want to believe, and any evidence that is contrary to their worldview is dismissed.
The Sat TV system on the airplane I work on is always tuned to Fox News. Forbes is always in the magazine racks.
When real movers and shakers look at faux news they’re just checking up on their propaganda.
I finally found a website I like for researching home values. Unlike Zillow, the posted values seem fair — not subject to upward bias compared to the price at which they could sell. If shows our landlords are off by $124,000 from their 2004 purchase price — a loss of 22% so far. We could have covered 54 months (four years, six months) rent off the amount saved by not purchasing a comparable home when we moved here — and that doesn’t consider any ownership costs besides the capital loss.
My impression is that most home value web sites (e.g. Zillow) overestimate them relative to current market conditions.
Huh. Values for all the houses in the nabe except mine.
Now THIS is fascinating.
Message to would-be foreign invaders: DON’T MESS WITH THE US.
Is the Fed merely pretending they won’t opt for QE3 next week in order to increase the shock-and-awe effect on the stock market when they do opt for it?
ft dot com
July 22, 2012 6:33 pm
Fed looks at third round of easing
By Robin Harding in Washington
The recent slowdown in US economic growth is forcing the Federal Reserve to consider something for which it has always set the bar very high: a third round of quantitative easing.
A decision on whether to launch another round of asset purchases remains in the balance as the central bank wrestles with a complicated economic outlook and uncertainty about the costs and benefits of its easing tools.
In an interview with the Financial Times, John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, said that the weak outlook and the extent of downside risks “would argue for further action” but the counter-argument was doubts about tools such as QE3.
However, Fed officials are determined to ensure that the economy makes progress towards lower unemployment. In June, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee still forecast a decline in the unemployment rate over the next few years, albeit very slowly. Any downgrade to that forecast would be a likely trigger for further action.
“We are looking very carefully at the economy, trying to judge…whether or not the economy is likely to continue to make progress towards lower unemployment,” said Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, in recent testimony to Congress. “If that does not occur, obviously we have to consider additional steps.”
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Hedge Fund Investors Are Running For The Exits
Ben Duronio | Jul. 10, 2012, 5:49 PM
David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital has underperformed
Laurence Fletcher of Reuters is reporting that hedge fund withdrawals have reached their highest level since 2009, during the midst of the housing crisis.
Net outflows from hedge funds, as measured by the GlobeOp GO.L Capital Movement Index, which tracks monthly net subscriptions to and redemptions from funds managing around $187 billion (120.49 billion pounds) in assets, were 1.17 percent of that total during the month to July 1.
The withdrawals compare with net inflows in each of the previous five months and were the highest level of net outflows since October 2009, when clients pulled out 3.76 percent.
This is more bad news for hedge funds, who have been outperformed by bond funds this year. CNBC’s John Melloy reported earlier today that Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s global diversified hedge fund composite index returned just 1.3 percent in the first half, which was significantly below the S&P 500’s 8.3 percent gain. Melloy noted that David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital was one such underperformer.
With hedge funds not gaining money as rapidly as hoped, investors are starting to pull their money out. This is a trend that hedge funds will want to reverse, quickly.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/hedge-fund-withdrawals-highest-rate-since-2009-2012-7#ixzz21y7IIuA6
What is a net outflow? Doesn’t someone have to buy in order for another to sell?
“Doesn’t someone have to buy in order for another to sell?”
That what the public employee and teacher’s pension plans are for.
Big asset managers miss Wall Streey (SIC) views as investors flee
Ross Kerber and Aaron Pressman Reuters
3:50 p.m. CDT, July 26, 2012
(Reuters) - Four of the largest U.S. money managers reported sharp declines in second-quarter earnings on Thursday, as volatile markets and fleeing customers cut into their fee income.
The decline was steepest at Denver-based Janus Capital Group Inc, which remains mired in a multiyear trend of lagging fund performance and customer withdrawals. The company’s shares lost 2.6 percent on the New York Stock Exchange.
Net income of $23.4 million was down 44 percent from a year earlier. And the 13 cent per share profit was a penny less than analysts, on average, had expected according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, due to higher-than-anticipated customer outflows of $3.9 billion from long-term funds.
“It looks pretty messy,” said Sandler O’Neill analyst Michael Kim, who had expected outflows of about $2 billion.
Total assets under management at Janus fell to $152.4 billion on June 30, down 7 percent during the quarter and 10 percent from a year earlier.
Most of the industry fared poorly in one of the toughest quarters for money managers since the financial crisis ended. Beset by fears of debt defaults in Europe and an economic slowdown in the United States and China, investors drove the MSCI All Country Index down 6.4 percent in the second quarter while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 2.8 percent.
And that prompted many investors to withdraw and wait for the chaos to subside, particularly from stock funds, the category that tends to provides the highest fees to managers.
…
“Most of the industry fared poorly in one of the toughest quarters for money managers since the financial crisis ended.”
Who knew the financial crisis was over? Did they ring some kind of bell and I didn’t hear it?
What would be the advantage to the Fed of waiting until 2 months before the 2012 presidential election to make a QE3 announcement? Wouldn’t they face a lot of political liability for changing (or staying the) course so close to the election?
Fed may announce QE3, but not in August
FXstreet.com Thu, Jul 26 2012, 08:13 GMT
by Noemí Jansana - FXstreet.com
With Fed’s chairman Bernanke statement that he is “prepared to do more” in mind, all the analysts polled by FXstret.com in this month’s FED meeting forecast report, preview that the QE3 is at the gates. However, the most part agree that it’s unlikely to be in August, since September 13th FOMC meeting seems a most factible date.
Some of them, like Talal Abdullah, Financial Analyst at ICN.com, expect this to happen before the end of 2012: “I do believe that the U.S. economy is still weak and far from healthy, so I think the Federal Reserve will monitor the economic data in the U.S. economy closely, and if it shows more weakness, QE3 will be adopted at the end of this year to support growth and help the economy withstand looming threats, especially from debt-troubled euro zone.”
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Hedge funds
Où est Monsieur Paulson?
Why no hedge fund has made a killing out of the euro crisis
Jul 28th 2012 | from the print edition
When investors turn gun-shy
MARKET turmoil usually spells good news for someone. When America’s housing market collapsed, the beneficiaries were hedge-fund managers such as John Paulson of Paulson & Co, who made $15 billion shorting subprime mortgages in 2007. Why, then, has the euro-zone crisis not produced a Monsieur Paulson of its own? Despite more than two years of disarray, funds with double-digit returns are rare; those with triple-digit returns are unheard of.
Dejected hedge-fund managers blame political meddling for their flagging performance. Last year several battered European countries, including Italy and Spain, banned short-selling of financial stocks, which cut off one route to winnings. On July 23rd Spain and Italy put in place new short-selling bans, frustrating bearish hedgies everywhere. Uncertainty has made many funds nervous about placing big bets. Confusion over whether a Greek sovereign default would trigger payouts on credit-default swaps (CDSs) scared off many funds, for example.
Market trends have also struggled to gather steam because of political interventions. Usually funds add to a small position as a trend gains momentum, but this strategy has not worked in Europe. Markets have whipsawed in response to announcements in Brussels: managers who have a good month often suffer the next. Shorting the euro, an obvious trade for euro bears, has not worked because the currency has not yet tanked, partly because of a rush for Bunds.
Appearances have mattered, too. Few want to incite a political backlash by being seen to profit from Europe’s woes, which is partly why funds are “in risk-aversion mode”, says Dominic Freemantle of Morgan Stanley. Investors are also gun-shy. Few would want a fund to take on the tremendous leverage (and volatility) required for a triple-digit pay-off like Mr Paulson’s, says Marc Lasry of Avenue Capital, a $12.5 billion hedge fund.
The crisis is not over, of course: there may yet be a big winner.
…
Size yields economic benefits, all right — such as free too-big-to-fail bailout insurance in case of foolish gambles producing massive losses, or monopolistically limiting competition so that you can screw over individual household customers.
Bloomberg News
Weill Comments Revive Washington Debate on ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’
By Emma Fidel on July 27, 2012
Sanford “Sandy” Weill’s call this week for breaking up large banks revived debate in Washington over “too-big-to-fail” lenders, prompting renewed assertions by industry groups that size yields economic benefits.
Downsizing would impede U.S. banks’ ability to serve the country’s largest businesses and would lead companies to use foreign banks instead, said Frank Keating, president and chief executive officer of the American Bankers Association.
“It’s time to push the pause button on flawed proposals that would damage the U.S. economy,” Keating said in a statement today.
Keating and others commented after Weill, the former Citigroup Inc. (C) (C) CEO who helped champion the repeal of the Depression-era law that split deposit-taking from investment banking, said in a July 25 CNBC television interview that he now believes the separation should be reinstated.
“A big-bank bust-up on these simple, if alluring, criteria will do nothing to make banking safer,” Karen Shaw Petrou, a managing partner and co-founder of Federal Financial Analytics Inc., said today in a memo to clients of the Washington-based firm. Clearer rules for regulators and bankers are needed instead, she said.
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Where Will You Work if the Big Banks Break Up?
By StreetID Jul 26, 2012 4:35 pm
There are plenty of finance-related start-ups looking for talent.
MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Sometimes a relationship can last a lifetime. But just because two people might seem perfect for each other does not mean their marriage will last a lifetime. All too often, it ends in divorce.
That could be the case for our nation’s biggest banks, and that is exactly what Sanford I. Weill, the former Chairman and CEO of Citigroup (C),wants to see happen. In an interview with CNBC this morning, Weill said that banking should be “split up” from investment banking.
“Have banks be deposit takers, have banks make commercial loans and real estate loans, have banks do something that’s not going to risk the taxpayer dollars, that’s not too big to fail,” Weill told CNBC’s Squawk Box.
In short, Weill is more concerned about taxpayers than anyone else. “I’m suggesting that they be broken up so that the taxpayer will never be at risk, the depositors won’t be at risk, the leverage of the banks will be something reasonable, and the investment banks can do trading, they’re not subject to a Volcker rule, they can make some mistakes, but they’ll have everything that clears with each other every single night so they can be mark-to-market,” he said.
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Editorial
Congress should consider again how best to protect Americans from a repeat of the last banking meltdown.
July 27, 2012
Former Citigroup honcho Sanford I. Weill said this week that megabanks should be broken into smaller pieces, separating the arms that take federally insured deposits from the ones making bets on Wall Street. Above: Pedestrians walk by the Citigroup Center in San Francisco.
Former Citigroup honcho Sanford I. Weill is widely seen as the man most responsible for the rise of “too big to fail” banks and, by extension, for the enormous federal bailouts they received in 2008 and 2009. This week, however, Weill shocked the financial industry when he said that megabanks should be broken into smaller pieces, separating the arms that take federally insured deposits from the ones making bets on Wall Street. Lawmakers resisted such a straightforward approach when they enacted the Dodd-Frank law to re-regulate the financial industry in 2010. But Weill’s hindsight should prompt them to consider again how best to protect Americans from a repeat of the last meltdown.
…
Spain and the markets
The Spanish patient
A full bail-out of the euro area’s fourth-largest economy is looming
Jul 28th 2012 | from the print edition
IF SPAIN were a patient, the mood in the hospital ward would be tense. Every attempt by local specialists advised by renowned European consultants to treat the sickness brings no more than temporary relief. Even more worrying, the relapses after each dose are happening sooner and sooner. Spain’s chances of avoiding intensive care—a full bail-out—are receding to near vanishing-point.
The symptoms of Spanish sickness are manifest in ten-year government bond yields touching 7.75% on July 25th; previous bail-outs of Greece, Ireland and Portugal occurred not long after rates had surpassed 7%. Even more perturbing, two-year yields also briefly went above 7%, in effect foreclosing the government’s ability to borrow at anything but short maturities.
No isolation ward is possible in the financially integrated euro area and Spain’s sickness quickly infected other countries. The Italian ten-year bond yield went above 6.5%, its highest since January. European stockmarkets retreated and Italy’s fell to a euro-era low. Sentiment was further soured by a report from Moody’s, a ratings agency, saying that Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands might lose their cherished triple-A status. The prognosis was based in part on fears about the public-debt burden that northern countries might have to assume if bail-outs spread.
The market funk was the more troubling since a Spanish government with a lot going for it had appeared to be getting a grip. Public debt is rising fast, but at 69% of GDP last year was far lower than Italy’s 120%—and less even than Germany’s 81%. The budget deficit is high (8.9% of GDP in 2011), but only a week before the market panic Mariano Rajoy, the prime minister, announced more tough austerity measures. And on July 20th European finance ministers sanctioned the first tranche of a partial bail-out worth up to €100 billion ($121 billion) for Spanish banks.
So why are investors in such a cold sweat about Spain? One reason is that Mr Rajoy flunked hard choices at the outset, notably the cleansing of the banks. Despite a low starting-point for public debt, deficit overshoots have revealed insufficient central control over the 17 regions that are responsible for a big chunk of spending. Investors fret that more regions may follow Valencia, which applied for aid on July 20th. They are in any case sceptical that Spain can meet its targets for cutting the deficit in the teeth of a recession that is harsher than expected.
The biggest worry is Spain’s external debt. Spain ran hefty current-account deficits in the first decade of the euro. As a result, its liabilities to foreign investors exceeded the assets that its residents own abroad by 92% of GDP last year, among the highest in the euro area. The problem for Spain is that foreign capital has been fleeing over the past year. That has weakened the banks and the economy and left the Spanish government shunned by foreign investors for its own financing needs.
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“A full bail-out of the euro area’s fourth-largest economy is looming”
Who is doing the bailing?
German press, ECB ready to buy Spanish bonds
11:14 28 LUG 2012
(AGI) Berlin - The European Central Bank is planning to buy Spanish bonds from financial institutions and other investors.
It will do this to increase demand for the country’s sovereign debt. The German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung reports the move citing sources in Brussels. According to the newspaper, the ECB could act through the EFSF bailout fund on behalf of the eurozone countries. The ECB could act as soon as it receives a request for aid from Spain. ‘It is ready to take this step’, says the newspaper.
The euro crisis
Spanish panic
Jul 23rd 2012, 11:59 by R.D. | LONDON
THINGS are rapidly getting worse in Spain. Bond yields have risen to over 7.5% today, on the back of a shaky government debt auction last Thursday, and the failure of one of its regions (Valencia) that now needs help from Madrid. In line with this bad news on the state of the government coffers, the cost of buying an insurance policy against Spanish default (credit default swap premia) is up, and is increasingly diverging from Italy’s (see chart). Investors’ views of Spanish companies are just as gloomy as of its government finances. The Spanish stock-market—the IBEX 35—is down 30% this year, as any expectations that company profits will lead to decent dividends anytime soon are thin on the ground. Things could get worse as the week progresses, particularly if preliminary measures of output to be released tomorrow are weak.
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Greek bail-out
Is “Grexit” at hand?
Greece has only a couple of weeks left to convince its creditors
Jul 28th 2012 | ATHENS | from the print edition
ON HIS visit to Athens this week, José Manuel Barroso, the head of the European Union (EU) Commission, brought a stern warning for Antonis Samaras, the new prime minister of a precarious right-left coalition government. Greece has only a couple of weeks left to convince its creditors that it can put economic reforms back on track. Should its latest plans for making €14.5 billion ($17.6 billion) of spending cuts over the coming two years be judged unrealistic, the next €31.2 billion loan tranche will again be held back.
If that happens, Greece would be unable to finish recapitalising its big banks. Without credit, the economy will seize up. Pensions and public-sector salaries would not be paid. A “Grexit” from the euro could occur within weeks. The worry for Greeks is that with Spain and Italy coming under attack in financial markets, some euro-zone members may be tempted to sacrifice Greece.
Two previous Athens governments have failed dismally since mid-2010 to implement reforms agreed on with the Commission and the IMF, thanks to widespread official corruption and a lack of political will. Mr Samaras opposed the first Greek bail-out while in opposition; he still wants, at some point, to renegotiate parts of the second.
Yannis Stournaras, the technocratic finance minister, has the difficult job of persuading Greece’s creditors that his government can do better than its predecessors. The troika of officials from the EU, IMF and European Central Bank were especially dismayed by a looming €3 billion gap in privatisation revenues this year, as well as by the lack of progress in cutting jobs in the public sector.
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“Pensions and public-sector salaries would not be paid.”
Current employees can quit if they’re not going to be paid. However, pensioners have already satisfied their side of the contract, and now their government is going to renege on their side?
Meanwhile the 1% amble along…
Russian Billionaire Closes On $88 Million Manhattan Penthouse – Bought For His Daughter, 22
http://elitedaily.com/elite/2012/russian-billionaire-closes-88-million-manhattan-penthouse-bought-daughter/
Spanish cities spent billions in the good times, but now debt burden is crushing the young
Spain’s regions spent billions competing with each other to build prestige projects when the economy was good. Now the young are being crushed by the debt burden, which promises to cause a Greek-style disaster which many Spaniards are starting to blame on Europe.
By Nick Meo, Valencia
4:49PM BST 28 Jul 2012
On the way to the docks in Valencia, past rows of dreary blocks of flats, is a fabulously expensive opera house built to get the Spanish city noticed, no matter the price.
The building, centrepiece of the City of Arts and Sciences cultural complex, is the kind of experiment in contemporary architecture on which Spanish cities spent billions of euros during the giddy decade to 2008 - when the property bubble burst and the economy crashed.
An arresting, glimmering white building that looks as if it could have just flown in from outer space, surrounded by pools of cool blue water, it was supposed to rival the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao or the cityscape of Barcelona, up the coast to the north.
It seemed expensive at the time. But it is only now that Valencia understands the true price of architect Santiago Calatrava’s bold vision. The city, Spain’s third biggest, is so mired in debt that last week it had to turn to Madrid for a €2 billion bailout - setting a precedent for other Spanish regions.
Within days Murcia region had followed suit and much larger Catalonia, which is €42 billion in debt, is likely to do so shortly. Between them, Spain’s 17 regions owe an estimated €140 billion. The dawning realisation of what this could mean for Madrid’s own debt problem has driven Spanish borrowing charges to a dangerous new high, and raised new fears about the entire country’s need for an EU bailout.
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Sounds like it’s turtles all the way down from Spain to the ECB.
Have the PTB connected the dots yet between the Fed’s ultra-low interest rate policy and pension underfunding? It’s not rocket science, folks: Low interest rates result in skyrocketing pension liabilities, coupled with paltry investment returns on pension assets. The result is a steep increase in contribution requirements, at the very moment when corporations or tax bases are least able to shoulder them. Sounds to me like a recipe for a financial disaster.
Is this even on the Fed’s radar screen, or do they still operate under the delusional belief that low rates are for the greater good?
July 19, 2012, 12:05 PM
More Bad News for Public Pensions
By Neal Lipschutz
Three recently released data points bring new worry to a long-standing if not always front-of-mind U.S. economic problem, underfunded public pensions.
In a week featuring testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and therefore renewed market speculation about the central bank’s next move, revelations about alleged Libor manipulations, a flood of corporate earnings reports and more, it’s easy to pass over an issue that features no easy solutions and seems to have been with us forever.
But proper financing of public pension obligations is a broad and serious problem.
Fact one: On July 13, CalSTRS, the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, reported a 1.8% return on its investments in the 2011-12 fiscal year. Its actuarial assumed rate of return is 7.5 %. Its chief executive officer, Jack Ehnes, said in a press release, “Investment returns alone cannot place CalSTRS on a solid financial footing. “ He called for state government action for a “long-term funding plan that includes gradual, predictable and fair contribution increases for all parties involved.” CalSTRS is the second-largest public pension fund in the U.S.
Fact Two: On July 16, the largest public pension plan in the U.S., the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) said it earned 1% on its investments in the fiscal year ended June 30. Its so-called discount rate also is 7.5%.
“It’s important to remember that CalPERS is a long-term investor and one year of performance should not be interpreted as a signal about our ability to achieve our goals over the long term,” said Henry Jones, chair of CalPERS’ investment committee, in a press release. Over 20 years, CalPERS boasts a 7.7% investment return.
Fact Three: Earlier this week, a State Budget Crisis Task Force, headed by public policy veterans Paul Volcker (who once helmed the Fed) and Richard Ravitch (who once was lieutenant governor of New York), cited “underfunded retirement promises” as one of six major threats to states’ “fiscal sustainability.”
“The most significant reason for pension underfunding is that investment earnings have fallen far short of what was assumed,” said the report. “Many pension plans with the greatest need for increased contributions have an additional burden in the fact that their states and localities habitually have skipped or underpaid their actuarially required contributions…”
It’s not rocket science, folks: Low interest rates result in skyrocketing pension liabilities, coupled with paltry investment returns on pension assets.
Well said; but what is the timeframe in which the pension fund crisis will become visible to all? My guess is that the date is far enough down the road that they simply don’t care at this point.
The rolling domino of related crises continues…
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