Bits Bucket for July 31, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Without Realtors we would throw our money away on rent.
Without Political Parties we would throw our votes away.
Without both of them we would have a nation of litterbugs.
Conform. Don’t pollute.
*this message has been paid for by the status quo.
Beautiful Truth.
Conform. Don’t pollute.
Hmmm … I would think that buying big gas guzzling trucks, even though you don’t need one, because a gravelly voiced actor tells you that’s the macho thing to do would be more of a form of conforming than driving a sensible car that pollutes less. But what do I know? I just like to breathe smog free air and drink clean water.
“thrown away” votes and rent money being the pollution for the metaphorically challenged.
lmao
Today’s the last day….
In 1984, President Ronald Reagan designated July as National Ice Cream Month and the third Sunday of the month as National Ice Cream Day. He recognized ice cream as a fun and nutritious food that is enjoyed by a full 90 percent of the nation’s population. In the proclamation, President Reagan called for all people of the United States to observe these events with “appropriate ceremonies and activities.”
You can go back to your low carb diets tomorrow.
go back to your low carb diets tomorrow.
I find a scoop of chilled bacon fat makes a good hot-weather, low-carb treat. In a cup, not a cone!
“chilled bacon fat”
Food stylists (for photos and commercials) use colored scoops of mashed potatoes to represent ice cream.
nutritious? ….alzheimers?
Of course. There’s a teeny bit of calcium and protein mixed in with all that sugar. All those nutrition posters in school — kindly furnished by Big Ag — told me so.
Don’t forget the fat! Plenty of that in ice cream.
Stayed up late watching the last season of Mad Men. What a great show.
Anyway, I think in 30 years we may look back on our sugar consumption habits the same we we look at smoking now.
It’ll be a sad day, because I sure do like sugar (and so do my kids). But the research coming out about its affects are making me nervous. Unfortunately, its not just HFCS that is bad for you.
“Today’s the last day …”
In the spirit of freedom and rebellion from authority I refuse to comply with this edict and will continue to eat - and even enjoy the eating! - of ice cream during all months of the year as it suits me.
Compare and contrast:
When I wuz a pup: The Good Humor truck cheerily coming through the neighborhoods with the jingling bells and colorful, tempting posters of ice cream sandwiches, cones, ices and sticks. The cheery drivers (Good Humor Men) in pressed white uniforms and caps, dispensing treats from freezers to gaggles of slim, energetic neighborhood kids who interrupt their late afternoon/evening play to gather round, sometimes with a mother or two shepherding their flock to the truck.
Today in this part of Florida: A dirty box on wheels blaring a tinny version of Turkey in the Straw or some sort of mariachi music cruises around with torn, faded images of what looks like ice cream (but could be colored mashed potatoes), plastered to the outside. A squatty, squinting man with stubble on his face, most likely an independent contractor, dispenses some sort of generic brand frozen water or mush to blubbery, slow witted kids and their bovine mothers. Sometimes the leathery face creases in a caricature of a smile.
It’s morning in America!
“It’s morning in America!”
Ooops, wrong quote. I meant to say “FORWARD!”
Nice post
Except he is describing the exact same thing - a guy in a truck selling ice cream or popcicles to kids and a few adults. It is nice exercise in propaganda, but other than that…
Propaganda? I thought he was contrasting the reality as seen by an excited child, with the reality as seen through adult eyes…
Yes, indeedy, it’s all the same, isn’t it? Cavemen grunting and squatting around a fire in loincloths and defecating in a pile outside the cave is the same as living in a climate controlled residence with flush toilets and modern day plumbing. Banging on drums and sending smoke signals is just like communicating via cell phones!
Everything’s just a propaganda construct, it’s all the same, just different!
“Propaganda? I thought he was contrasting the reality as seen by an excited child, with the reality as seen through adult eyes…”
I suppose there’s a little bit of that. But I really think most kids ran to the truck back in the day rather than waddling or jiggling. Of course, there was always a lard-ass or two in the bunch.
I really do recall the jingling bells as opposed to the tinny loudspeaker music.
I liked the toasted almond bars, but I always enjoyed the plain vanilla on a stick, with that thin chocolate shell. Heaven.
But, you know, according to polly, it’s the same as eating yellow snow, just with better propaganda.
But I really think most kids ran to the truck back in the day rather than waddling or jiggling. Of course, there was always a lard-ass or two in the bunch.
Well, when I was a kid.
1) There was a single TV in the house, and maybe 5 channels to watch. There certainly was nothing like Nickelodeon, Cartoon Network, Disney Channel and other all day children’s TV networks.
2) We didn’t have X boxes
3) Our parents weren’t worried about us being kidnapped if we wemt out to play unsupervised. Plus the neighborhood was full of stay at home moms that kept an eye on us.
4) There wasn’t the plethora of junk food that we have today. I recall when my mom would take us to Mickey D’s. It was an occasional treat, as opposed to her going through the drive thru to pick up “dinner” on the way home after a long day at her three jobs.
The kids in my upper middle class nabe are leaner than the national average, possibly due to good nutrition and participation in organized sports. Yet I rarely see them out and about on their bikes like we did when I was a kid.
I liked the toasted almond bars, but I always enjoyed the plain vanilla on a stick, with that thin chocolate shell. Heaven.
But, you know, according to polly, it’s the same as eating yellow snow, just with better propaganda.
I also recall that ice cream and popsicles, along with cola drinks, were a summer only treat. Contrast that that with today, when you can buy a box of 30 ice cream sandwiches at Sam’s Club year round.
I liked the toasted almond bars a lot, too. But ate one just a few weeks ago, and alas, it was not nearly as tasty as I remembered it. Sigh.
Is anything as good as it was when we were kids?
I think the tech is great. I was bored a lot as a kid and I don’t think I’d be bored now. Could include some undesirable side effects, though.
Colorado, that is a more complex question than you think.
Of course WE thought things were better when we were kids, because they WERE better. Almost everyone here grew up during that “anomaly” of good times : 1950 to 1985 or so. Our financial* standard of living has been in a 50-year downslide. So for all of us, things were better when we were kids.
But what about people who grew up during the Depression? Things were worse when they were kids. or what about teenagers in Brazil, which is on an upswing? They will have a better adulthood than childhood.
————
*I say “financial” standard of living to refer to one income supporting a household, cheap college, good retirement etc. But overall we have a better standard due to advances in automation, agriculture, fuel efficiency, environmental regs, and medicine.
I seem to recall picture of police dogs attaching civil rights marchers, not everyone was having a ball in the 50’s.
Polio anyone?
Polio anyone?
No thank you.
BTW, one of KXCI’s most popular radio shows is hosted by a lady with post-polio syndrome. She wears a 7-pound brace, and getting up and down the stairs to the broadcast studio is a challenge.
But she does it. When she’s on the air, you’d never know that there’s the slightest difficulty. She’s too busy cutting up and laughing.
Oxide, I agree with you except for the date, I think the standard of living started to decline in 1973, for the middle class. Complex reasons, but among the biggest reason was the end of cheap energy with the oil embargo in October.
Today in this part of Florida: A dirty box on wheels blaring a tinny version of Turkey in the Straw or some sort of mariachi music cruises around with torn, faded images of what looks like ice cream (but could be colored mashed potatoes), plastered to the outside. A squatty, squinting man with stubble on his face, most likely an independent contractor, dispenses some sort of generic brand frozen water or mush to blubbery, slow witted kids and their bovine mothers. Sometimes the leathery face creases in a caricature of a smile.
Same thing happens here in Tucson. And I wouldn’t buy anything from those trucks on a bet.
“I wouldn’t buy anything from those trucks on a bet.”
Neither would I. Nor would I buy from street roach coaches, or even hot dog stands.
When I wuz a pup, though, and in the big city (that would be New York) with the ‘rents, we’d always stop for a bite at a Sabrett’s or even one of those wagons that sold huge soft pretzels.
Another thing I have seen in Longmont, CO are Mexican style ice cream push carts:
http://dorastable.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/dsc00350.jpg
NYC and SF now have some very high-end food and ice cream trucks. Homemade organic ice cream and every manner of fusion food.
Super yum. Not your old-fashioned ice cream truck or roach coach, for sure. Decent prices, too, cuz the overhead is low.
Saw an Olympian in London on TV eating Breast Milk Ice Cream he paid 19.95 pounds for. He said it reminded him of his mother’s milk!
The cheery drivers (Good Humor Men) in pressed white uniforms and caps,
Bet they were part of some goonie union which fought for the good wages which put them in such a good humour for you to be nostaglic about.
“Bet they were part of some goonie union which fought for the good wages which put them in such a good humour for you to be nostaglic about.”
Crikey. However did milkmen and Good Humor men and others support themselves back in the day?
Labor unions and food stamps are bankrupting this country!
North of Peterborough I saw an ice cream boat. Two smiling young men in crisp white uniforms scooping up ice cream cones for eager scantily clad pontoon boaters.
Blue Sky
Are you on the Trent System? Near the lift lock? If you have any dive gear ask a local diver where the Indian battle was - largest battle between Indians apparently ever - it would be a dive beyond any other you could take. It is at the bottom of a man made lake.
Welcome to Canada.
Thanks Patrick! I just left the Trent today and cruised Adolphous Reach. Anchored in Half Moon Bay (in Prince Edward Bay). The dive in Peterborough sound very interesting. Is that right in “Little Lake”?
Sometimes I think my street is a remnant of Mayberry, and it makes me happy. On summer days and after school, the cul de sac swarms with kids on scooters, skateboards and bikes. Not a fat kid among them. A Good Humor truck even wandered through on Sunday. The truck looked to be in pretty good shape; didn’t see the driver.
Awesome. Too bad that sort of scenario is held in contempt these days.
Too bad that sort of scenario is held in contempt these days.
Is it? Not around here. And I live in one of those oft-maligned, upper middle class hotbeds of social liberalism.
40 years ago, I remember the ice cream man blaring Black Sabbath IV out of his speaker, and one bunch of kids distracting him while another bunch raided the coolers on the other side of the truck.
The “good old days” had a lot to do with how lucky you got in the parent lottery, and where you lived, I suspect.
Today’s ice cream trucks are god-awful jokes.
Where I live they are exactly as palmy describes. I have no idea how they even have a license.
No intended insult here, but you must be really old. When I was a kid we had the same mariachi playing dirty trucks they have now and Ronny was POTUS.
In our family we have 3 eating seasons:
Pie season (Halloween until February)
Cake season (February until the last Spring birthday in May)
Doughnut season (summertime!)
You can put a scoop of ice cream on top of pie, cake, and beside a doughnut.
Thanks for the tip, Ol’Bubba. Gotta go to the food co-op this evening.
July should be renamed as National Air Conditioning Month. I had to actually obtain and install an air conditioner this year, and that’s after suffering like crazy last year. Last year, our July was the 2nd hottest on record. 20 days of 90+ temps. This year, we’ve had at least 4 days of 100+ temps, and I lost count of how many 90+ days, and set a new single day record of 102. I’ve joked to people that if I wanted to live in South Carolina, I would have effin’ moved there.
This is the midwest. It’s not supposed to be like this. That 100+ degree heat, day after day, soaks into my house bricks like it’s one of those industrial glass furnaces. And it’s not just the daily highs. It’s the high daily lows. The house can’t cool down enough until the next furnace-like day arrives. So pumping in “cold” night air isn’t working, since the air is still quite warm. Screw this crap.
That 100+ degree heat, day after day, soaks into my house bricks like it’s one of those industrial glass furnaces.
Welcome to my world. It’s called living in a brick house in Tucson, Arizona.
People around here always say that “August will be worse.” I don’t buy that at all. You are more sick of the heat in August, but since there is less sunlight it is really a little cooler. Even if the lows don’t get down that far, the fact that they last longer helps.
but since there is less sunlight it is really a little cooler.
Because the surface of the earth has so much water, it takes a long time to heat up and a long time to cool down, so temperature lags behind the light. That’s why July and August are hotter than the solstice in June, and why January and February are colder than the solstice in December.
To some this is gloomy, but to others (like me) joyous: By early August, we’ll have lost an hour of sunlight from the summer solstice peak (June 21).
It’s a harbinger of the cooler and dryer temps ahead.
August is that much closer to September, my favorite month.
Verse 1:
Over hill, over dale,
We have hit the dusty trail,
And those Deadbeats go rolling along.
“Count-er march! Right about”
Hear those victim soldiers shout,
While those Deadbeats go rolling along.
CHORUS [sung after each verse]
For it’s Hi! Hi! Hee! at the Deadbeat factory,
Call off your numbers loud and strong
(Call off)
And where-e’re we go
You will always know
That those Deadbeats are rolling along.
(Keep ’em rolling)
That those Deadbeats are rolling along.
[After Last Chorus]
Foreclosures Halt!
Verse 2:
To the front, day and night
Where the Deadbeats dig and fight
And those victims go rolling along.
Our barrage will be there
Robo signing wasn`t fair
While those Deadbeats go rolling a-long.
Why Obama owns the 2009 budget: http://www.neighborhoodlink.com/article/Community/The_2009_Omnibus_Bill_Explained
from Politifact:
[U]sing raw dollars, Obama did oversee the lowest annual increases in spending of any president in 60 years.
[U]sing inflation-adjusted dollars, Obama had the second-lowest increase — in fact, he actually presided over a decrease once inflation is taken into account.
Only if you ignore his boosting of the budget in 2009 which is absurd. It is like a landlord that doubles your rent one year and than brags the next three years that his increases in rent are less than inflation.
Politifact took your objections into account.
Just think if Obama hadn’t inherited a depression and two extremely expensive wars (of choice).
Yes, in today’s world everyone is a victim. It is not Obama’s fault he HELOCed the country on teaser rates. But we will all soon pay the bill.
“Just think if Obama hadn’t inherited a depression and two extremely expensive wars (of choice).”
Yeah, he wouldn’t have had a chance to expand them.
Yes, in today’s world everyone is a victim.
I’m not saying he’s a victim, but the economic depression and two very expensive wars he inherited certainly are going to skew his numbers. Any rational person can see that.
“Just think if Obama hadn’t inherited a depression and two extremely expensive wars (of choice).”
Yes… Oh, and he is such a Gandhi-like peace monger isn’t he, The Teleprompter of The United States? That is why he was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize, just like Arafat.
And just think if he gets re-elected to another term: What a sh!t-mess he will inherit from that buffoonish, posturing idiot in the previous administration!
Shhh -
Never bring up obama’s voting record as a SENATOR.
Never meet a tax increase or spending increase or and increase in government size he did not vote for.
To INCLUDE TARP.
Any rational person can see that ??
And there-in lays the answer….
“And just think if he gets re-elected to another term: What a sh!t-mess he will inherit from that buffoonish, posturing idiot in the previous administration!”
+1!
“You didn’t build that!”
“You didn’t build that!”
Which that? I guess it depends on what the definition of ‘that’ is.
It shows what a sucky party the Republicans are that they have to attack Obama on grounds of a deliberate misinterpretation of his statement.
I completely understood his context and still think it’s a silly notion.
I completely understood his context and still think it’s a silly notion.
Silly? What’s silly about a notion that business are not built in a vacuum? What’s bizarre is the warped dogma that businesses succeed without the societal structure that governments enable.
Most Republicans are willfully ignorant of this fact.
it’s not the notion that infrastructure is important to the economy that is silly.
“Yeah, he wouldn’t have had a chance to expand them.”
The war in Iraq is over and those troops are home and the DOW has come back from 6600 in 2009 to 12,000, today.
Only in some bizarro delusional world would those 2 things be seen as “expanding a bad situation”.
Now…that’s a much better point than your silly little notion above. I would have given Obama a pass on the economy until the cows came home; but that was before he pranced out his idiot press secretary…not the current idiot, but the idiot before him…and had him bragging about the recovery. I said at that time “ok Obama…you want to play that game? Then you own this now”.
It really proved to me that Obama had and still has no clue as to what is actually going on…and what is actually going to happen.
His presidency is an epic fail.
His presidency is an epic fail.
He didn’t do that. LOL, I saw this comment on another blog:
Yeah, he stopped the slide into a depression, saved the US auto industry which saved about 1.4 million jobs in auto and ancillary businesses, stimulus saved or created 2.6-3.2 million jobs, killed OBL & most of Al Queda, got consumer protection agency started to oversee cc companies & lending, passed Lilly Ledbetter to protect fair pay for women, got us out of that oil war in Iraq, was instrumental in Arab spring, got healthcare for those who couldn’t afford/get it due to pre-existing condition, caps, children, etc., if repealed it would add 108 billion to deficit, got fuel economy increases through, and proposed plan to cut deficit & increase revenue which Tea Party rejected. Considering he followed the worst president in US history I think he’s done OK.
all with trillion dollar deficits and free money. my three year old could do that.
totally sustainable.
got healthcare for those who couldn’t afford/get it due to pre-existing condition, caps, children, etc., if repealed it would add 108 billion to deficit
my three year old could do that.
Your 3 year old must not be a Republican.
you’re exactly right…my 3 year old has the perfect democrat mindset.
Obama is the Commander in Chief. He could stop the “two extremely expensive wars” tomorrow. But he won’t. Because he’s in full favor of having a hugely expensive government, in fact so expensive that it now requires borrowing 40 cents for each dollar spent. For 4 years running.
Bush and Obama are playing on the same team. And if you have to ask, you’re obviously not on that team.
It is why the deficit for this year is still 7.6% of the GDP which is a greater deficit than Reagan had for any year of his presidency, despite his cold war military build up.
It is why the deficit for this year is still 7.6% of the GDP which is a greater deficit than Reagan
Reagan inherited no wars and a tax base where the rich and corporations were taxed much more than today.
Gut your tax base and everyone is surprised because of deficits?
No, I’m just surprised why Americans believe all that government spending is somehow necessary such that it creates deficits. Deficits are created from excessive spending, not from drops in tax revenue. America doesn’t “have to” have a huge military, for example.
Deficits are created from excessive spending, not from drops in tax revenue.
Deficits are made worse by falling revenue. There are 2 parts to any budget. Not one but two. Spending and revenue. Always has been and always will be.
budg·et/ˈbəjit/
Noun:
An estimate of income and expenditure for a set period of time.
Deficits are created from excessive spending,
Are you shitting me? If you lost your job tomorrow and you had to use your credit card to buy food, would you call that a spending problem?
Firstly, Rio isn’t even worth responding to. You have deficits because you refuse to cut spending. Period.
Oxide, the government isn’t a creature that needs money to live. It’s not a creature. It’s not alive. So it can cut spending. The budget is about $3700 billion, and a real manager can find stuff to cut in that.
So, no, I’m not shitting you. In contrast, you are shitting me, by promulgating the errant idea that government spending can’t be cut.
Live within your means. That’s economic law that supersedes all ideology. Sadly, we’re neck deep in ideologies, and those keep the government a spending monster.
haven’t we been through all this before?
Here’s a question for the tastes great, less filling obsessed; what difference would there be in a republican or democrat housing policy?
Now, back to your compelling discussion of Reagan and other ancient topics…
Ben, I have no intention of voting for Romney because his wing of the Republican party would not have a different housing policy. Reagan would have let the market work, thus discussing him is not ancient history. He fought the Bush wing of the party but there is no question that in the end the Bush wing won and then tried to claim they were the heirs of his policies. Both parties are statists with virtually the same agenda.
Ron Paul and Reagan have a lot more in common on the economy than you recognize so Reagan still is relevant. I will answer what I believe needs to be done. Interest rates need to normalized and the Fed must be restrained from ever again forcing rates below market rates. This will result in a lot of pain, massive government cuts since the same debt will cost more and even lower housing prices. But a much smaller government is the only answer because the path we are on will only lead to a Greece type collapse.
^^^^^^^^
LMAO
Go to Zfacts and find out how our national debt exploded under Reagan and then try to make that comparison to Ron Paul again.
Reagan implemented a huge program of stimulus spending. He gave most of it to military, but it was still stimulus spending. And he cut taxes for the very poor through a major expansion of the earned income tax credit. Anyone who objects to the portion of the population that doesn’t pay federal income taxes can thank Ronald Reagan for their frustration.
My biggest disappointment with Reagan was how the deficits began to swell under his watch.
I suppose that I will “throw away” my vote this Fall and cast it for Ron Paul. I know he has no chance of winning, but at least I’ll know that I didn’t vote for tweedle dee or tweedle dum.
My understanding is the the deficit swelled under Reagan because he outspent the Russians on technology. Reagan was a huge job creator. Easy to do if someone –i.e. Carter and his much-maligned sweater austerity — gives you a clean credit card.
There is one thing I notice that nobody gives Obama a break for: the Baby Boomers are aging during this administration. Instead of paying taxes in as wages from their Reagan-created contractor jobs, these producers are now taking taxes out as SS and Medicare.
Any President would have this spending problem, and I think I know how Romney and Paul would “solve” it.
‘Reagan still is relevant’
Posters here and people all over the country can’t even agree on who is spending money right now!
‘his wing of the Republican party would not have a different housing policy’
Romney did say let house prices hit bottom. Does he mean it? Republicans did say in the debates we should close the GSE’s down. Would they do it? It is a Republican bureaucrat that is holding off calls for GSE principle reductions. But is this really in their power anyway?
What about the Fed? Where’s the rhetoric on letting markets work when it comes to interest rates and buying MBS’s? We hear a lot about govt taking over health care; they completely took over the housing market years ago. This is a huge section of the economy; it affects all of us in one way or another. And I think housing policy is as relevant or more than who’s responsible for deficit spending.
‘I think I know how Romney and Paul would “solve” it’
How? Romney wouldn’t spend much less than Democrats, but did mention entitlement reform. Paul has a detailed plan to cut spending by $1 trillion largely through reducing global military operations and foreign aid. Paul also said that although entitlement programs are bloated, he felt it was unreasonable to end these when people were counting on them and too old to replace them. He would phase them out, I believe. There is a lot of difference in these approaches. Oh, and Paul was warning about the housing bubble on the floor of congress in 2000 and knows how to address the cause of bubbles. Romney, like Obama, thinks Bernanke’s doing a swell job.
Romney did say let house prices hit bottom. Does he mean it? Republicans did say in the debates we should close the GSE’s down. Would they do it? It is a Republican bureaucrat that is holding off calls for GSE principle reductions. But is this really in their power anyway?
And don’t forget…. the current DoucheBag in Chief campaigned on and used the rhetoric of “selling people houses at inflated prices” in order to criticize the previous DoucheBag in Chief. I’m certain there is footage of it but trust me when I say that I lit up when he said it.
And guess what? He’s made it worse…. just like the liar before him. And lets not even invoke political parties, ideologies and names of people in this as it merely devolves into polarized pointless arguing. We all need to understand that these jackasses report to ______ (fill in the blank) and we’re merely pawns to be played every 4 years. I honestly do not believe there is a resolution to this through the election process. I’m not sure what but it is clear after the last few elections that exchanging one liar for another is not helping. I’m indifferent to either one of the current liars winning or losing. Make no mistake, both will continue to report to their masters and we’re not the masters.
“I suppose that I will “throw away” my vote this Fall and cast it for Ron Paul.”
Will he be on the ballot in Colorado?
Proposed weekend topic:
“…what difference would there be in a republican or democrat housing policy?”
My take: We won’t ever know right up until election day, because both sides are too wimpy to risk upsetting the NAR.
“…earned income tax credit. Anyone who objects to the portion of the population that doesn’t pay federal income taxes can thank Ronald Reagan for their frustration.”
Don’t tell me the gazillionaires with money parked offshore, safely out of reach of the IRS, qualify for the earned income tax credit!?
“Romney wouldn’t spend much less than Democrats, but did mention entitlement reform.”
I’m thinking he would mainly reallocate from Democrat social programs to defense.
America’s Choice 2012
Defense spending to spike $2.1 trillion under Romney
By Charles Riley @CNNMoney May 10, 2012: 9:52 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Mitt Romney is campaigning on a platform that emphasizes less spending, smaller deficits and renewed fiscal responsibility.
But in one budget area, Romney is running the opposite direction. The former Massachusetts governor wants to increase defense spending by leaps and bounds. By one estimate, additional spending would exceed $2 trillion over the next decade.
Romney’s plan calls for linking the Pentagon’s base budget to Gross Domestic Product, and allowing the military to spend at least $4 dollars out of every $100 the American economy produces.
…
‘I think I know how Romney and Paul would “solve” it’
How? Romney wouldn’t spend much less than Democrats
It was an insinuation that Romney would kill SS and Medicare.
Will he be on the ballot in Colorado?
I have no idea. I suppose I could just write him in.
Add to the fire that during Regan’s deficit spending years, we were still in the midst of a cold war with the Soviet Union and fighting communism was still a major goal of the US foreign policy…
Compare that to today, where we have a hot war in that hole empire’s fall into and don’t come out of, Afghanistan. As part of the never-ending “War on Terror”, otherwise known as the Christian Crusade against Islam, we are supporting conflicts thorughout MENA…
“Don’t tell me the gazillionaires with money parked offshore, safely out of reach of the IRS, qualify for the earned income tax credit!?”
Don’t be stupid, Bear. It isn’t even remotely funny. Gazillionaires don’t put enough of their money off shore to have so little income that they qualify for the earned income tax credit. The air conditioning bill costs more than that. And if they somehow manage to get all their income from income taxed at lower rates (carry interest, etc.), that isn’t earned income. Besides, even Romney had “not much” money in earned income from speakers fees - $375K or so, right?
once romney is elected…i can see him using the “it was much worse than even we knew” gag.
Proposed weekend topic:
“…what difference would there be in a republican or democrat housing policy?”
My take: We won’t ever know right up until election day, because both sides are too wimpy to risk upsetting the NAR.
You have to elect it to know what’s in it.
Not sure about housing policy…but spending policy will be no different.
They (republicans and democrats) will stop…only when the bond markets make them stop.
I consider a huge increase in the military budget and turning Medicare into a voucher program to be very big changes in spending policy.
“They (republicans and democrats) will stop…only when the bond markets make them stop.”
So long as the Fed successfully maintains its ultra-low rate policy, the bond markets will not make them stop.
Wasn’t that Bush’s fault?
I Like Ike!
And Teddy. Roosevelt, that is. Not Kennedy.
Dan…I mean who really cares anymore its all picky picky picky over immaterial points.
Here in the last 2 months there was a flurry of (maybe10) storefront renovations, dumpsters full of crap, new front windows new awnings new for rent signs….really nice looking stores fronts….and no one has moved in….
Maybe they saw some green shoots that don’t exist?
Hey, NYCdj, I got my Catholic Girls CD over the weekend. And I’m really enjoying it. Oh, am I ever!
AFAIK, I won’t be on KXCI again until late next month. I may be able to include them in one of my shows.
Or the KXCI PTB may get me onto a music mix before the end of August. A lot of the regular deejays are away, so ya never know just when you’ll hear Slim on the air.
cool….Gail has such a unique powerful voice and lots of her songs titles have only one word
true fact they were the only band to be cancelled on SNL because the producer though their name were too controversial….imagine what would have happened if that and opening for Springsteen would have happened…
the Springsteen concert was canceled due to a 12+” NJ NYC snowstorm
The above is SO going into a Slim radio show script! Thanks so much, my fellow deejay.
Did you know that The Catholic Girls were scheduled to appear on Saturday Night Live in 1983 but then the producers of the show deemed them too controversial! Can you believe that? It would have changed the band’s destiny to have been on that show!
Im sure Roxy said the Springsteen gig was a freebie…some fundraiser for a land marked night club they both played at that was broke…like CBGB in nyc….
Interesting, given that they let Zappa play “I am the Slime”, and even had their announcer participate in it.
Did you know that The Catholic Girls were scheduled to appear on Saturday Night Live in 1983 but then the producers of the show deemed them too controversial! Can you believe that? It would have changed the band’s destiny to have been on that show!
Im sure Roxy said the Springsteen gig was a freebie…some fundraiser for a land marked night club they both played at that was broke…like CBGB in nyc….
Deejay, could you double-check the info on the Springsteen gig? I’d like to be sure that what I’m saying is accurate before I open the mike…
Thanks in advance.
And, as mentioned before, I’m really enjoying the CD.
“Interesting, given that they let Zappa play “I am the Slime” ”
And funnily enough, he has a song called “Catholic Girls”.
Maybe they saw some green shoots that don’t exist ??
Probably not…The property managers/owners likely recognize that they need to offer more to any prospective tenant something better than a dump…Dump renting days are over…You need to offer a retail tenant something of added value…Besides, most small retail businesses have one big problem….Cash…The landlord renovating the facility prior to leasing it just reduces the amount of front end cash he tenant needs…
yes Dave but they are still empty…i figure maybe 2-3 should have been rented by now..
Key quote: Congressman Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) said “However, the situation is even worse when the Omnibus bill is considered along with the recently passed “stimulus” bill. The “stimulus” bill added $269.7 billion to 2009 appropriations for these departments. When the impacts of the Omnibus and the “stimulus” bill are combined, fiscal year 2009 appropriations for these departments will increase a massive 79.6%.”
Congress and Obama changed the 2009 budget and added a massive amount of spending, they cannot claim it is just Bush’s budget now.
Truman: the buck stops here. Obama: It is Bush’s fault. How this country has fallen.
http://www.doughroller.net/news-analysis/2009-economic-stimulus-package/
The actual stimulus was a tax break.
Once again, a Congressman has confused keeping our money with spending “their” money.
“Smells Like Teen Spirit” or something else.
Load up your loans and bring your friends
It’s fun to lose and to pretend
We`re four years late but self-assured
Oh no, I know a dirty word
We owe, we owe, we owe, we owe?
We owe, we owe, we owe, we owe?
We owe, we owe, we owe, we owe?
We owe, we owe, we owe
With the lights out, make our payments
Here we are now, make our payments
Don`t be stupid stupid it`s contagious
Here we are now, make our payments
We owe, we owe, we owe, we owe?
We owe, we owe, we owe, we owe?
We owe, we owe, we owe, we owe?
We owe, we owe, we owe
And I forget just what I paid
Oh yeah, I guess it makes me smile
I found it hard, it’s hard to find
Oh well, whatever, nevermind
We owe, we owe, we owe, we owe?
We owe, we owe, we owe, we owe?
We owe, we owe, we owe, we owe?
We owe, we owe, we owe
With the lights out, make our payments
Here we are now, make our payments
Don`t be stupid stupid it`s contagious
Here we are now, make our payments
A denial!
A denial!
A denial!
A denial!
A denial!
A denial!
Nirvana - Smells Like Teen Spirit (lyrics) - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYxkezUr8MQ - 171k -
That’s the first one I’ve liked.
“That’s the first one I’ve liked.”
Man that`s cold.
You didn`t even like John Denver`s It`s the Alpharado bankers only lie? What about this one from the other night when Muggy was talking about his neighbors?
Bad Bad Leroy Brown lyrics
Songwriters: Jim Croce
Well the South side of Pinellas
Is the baddest part of town
And if you go down there
You better just beware of a man named Muggy Brown
Now Muggy , more than trouble
You see he stand ’bout six foot four
All the downtown ladies call him Treetop Teacher
All the men just call him Sir
And it’s bad, bad Muggy Brown
The baddest man in the whole damned town
Badder than old King Kong
And meaner than a junkyard dog
Now Muggy , he a renter
And he buys his own kids clothes
And he like to wave his bills marked paid
In front of everybody’s nose
He got a nice 3 bedroom rental
He got an Education too
He got a 5 year old son and his weekends in the sun
He got a cell phone in his shoe
And it’s bad, bad Muggy Brown
The baddest man in the whole damned town
Badder than old King Kong
And meaner than a junkyard dog
Well, Friday ’bout a week ago
Muggy lookin’ twice
And at the end of da street
was a house in foreclosure
and ooh, that house looked nice
Well, he cast his eyes upon it
And the trouble soon began
‘Cause Muggy Brown learned a lesson
‘Bout a messin’ with the house of a Deadbeat man
Well, the two men took to fighting
And when they pulled them from the floor
Muggy saw the house in foreclosure
It had all the aplliances gone
And it’s bad, bad Muggy Brown
The baddest man in the whole damned town
Badder than old King Kong
And meaner than a junkyard dog
Yeah, badder than old King Kong
And meaner than a junkyard dog
I missed these lines from “Smells Like Teen Spirit” and they were a lay-up. Unchanged.
I’m worse at what I do best
And for this gift I feel blessed
Our little group has always been
And always will until the end
Hello, hello, hello, how low?
Hello, hello, hello, how low?
Hello, hello, hello, how low?
Hello, hello, hello
The VERY BEST version of Teen Spirit EVER:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsS811o21-k
No, really, you gotta watch it. You will not regret it.
Better than this one?
“Weird Al” Yankovic - Smells Like Nirvana
Brilliant!!
That was funny. Was Paul Anka dating Courtney Love or something?
That is a riot! Thanks, sfrenter.
What’s even better is that Anka has one heckuva backup band.
Help the stupid. They’re contagious. (Misheard lyrics to “Smells Like Teen Spirit.”)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O1-NZWtTJYI
How about those Olympics, eh? Hmm, mmm, mm. What a tawdry spectacle. Empty seats and stupid tweets. “Call me, maybe”.
It’s just so…so…
Gawd, somebody help me out here.
a few remarks from some of the commentators at this years olympics:
1. (question to one of the male beach volleyball teams) “most of the teams you are comepteing against would say you are the number one team in these olymipics…what do you have to do to prove that?”
2. (to the female skeet shooter who one her seventh olymipc medal after hitting 99 out of 100 targets) what about that one you mis…sed…do you wish you could have that one shot back?
3. (a question for kerri walsh of the female olympic volley ball team….a male commmentator was speaking about when he interviewed her) “i asked her if she thought her family was a distraction” (wonder how many men that idiot has asked that question).
And then there was the Phelps interview last night the reporter asked, “So what are we going to see tomorrow, the lazy, stoned, uncaring, under-performing disappointment OR the amazing, give a shit, unbeatable Michael Phelps”?
Ok, well, maybe those weren’t her exact words, but damn close. What an A-hole!!
Won
Sports commentators are the most useless people on the planet.
Moronic?
We’re halfway to Kornbluth’s moron-populated future.
And Mike Judge’s.
Judge got the idea from “The Marching Morons”.
What do mean, “halfway?”
Stop it. You’re frightening me.
So far, I haven’t paid the slightest bit of attention to these Olympics.
And I can remember when the Olympics were the biggest thing on TV. That would be as recently as 1984.
I think the blame for this might be due to (a) internet access to results and (b) events in a time zone with an 8 hour (West Coast) time difference. I think Americans pay more attention when the events can be watched live, due to them taking place on American soil.
It’s still exciting for me to watch live, and I’ve done some streaming of this week’s events. Even when it’s not live, I find some things interesting, like watching events I haven’t looked up the results for, or events for which I know the results but want to see how it went down, like the US men’s gymnasts falling flat (literally) last night.
“Empty seats…”
Just lower the list price!
NBC, call me lazy…..
Just up… bloomibergi says Case Schiller is down 0.7% YOY. No details yet.
The entire report shows housing prices headed up, albeit in nominal terms. How can they not? The central banks are printing money like crazy. People cannot find yield so they are reaching by buying homes to rent them out. The cure for the economy is not printing money and artificially low interest rates that is the problem. But I see in the next post Canada seems ready to do that. I guess when you still have that unpopped housing bubble you don’t want it to happen on your watch.
People cannot find yield so they are reaching by buying homes to rent them out.
And they’re going to learn some very harsh lessons about the realities of landlording. Oh, are they ever.
Look for another batch of in-VEST-ment houses dumped in another couple of years. I don’t think that the owners will even bother putting them up for sale first. They’ll just let them go back to the bank.
In our experience, banks are lending ~65% of the purchase price of homes to people who have rented them out. AND the people that I know who are borrowing such money are signing up for personal repayment recourse on the loans.
While I don’t dispute uninformed/inexperienced people getting rid of their rental properties after they realize what a pain it is to own them, I seriously doubt that they will be going back to the bank.
At worst, they will be sold at a loss, and the banks will be made whole (either from the sale, or the banks exercising their rights on repayment guarantees).
I guess when you still have that unpopped housing bubble you don’t want it to happen on your watch ??
You mean like George Bush ??
Prices dropped by less than expected — A PRICE GAIN!
Meanwhile Wall Street is selling off again, at a far quicker rate than the Chinese water torture pace of housing declines. For how much longer will the stock market and housing market diverge, before correlation strikes housing?
Home Prices in U.S. Fell Less Than Forecast in Year to MayBy Michelle Jamrisko - Jul 31, 2012 6:28 AM PT
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities decreased 0.7 percent from May 2011, the smallest 12-month fall since September 2010, after dropping 1.8 percent in the year ended April, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 29 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected a 1.4 percent fall.
Stabilizing prices could help drive a housing market that’s starting to recover three years after the end of the recession. Federal Reserve policy makers have said residential construction is a bright spot in the recovery even as unemployment remains a concern to households.
“This is great news that certainly bucks the trend of other data that points to an economy that’s slowing,” said Ellen Zentner, a senior U.S. economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “It’ll be a salve for a lot of U.S. households if we continue to see price gains in housing.”
…
Power Failures Hit Half of India
That is what happens when you neglect your infrastructure.
Did they ever have one that wasn’t chewing gum and bailing wire based to begin with?
And a bird accidentally drops a snake across the power lines in the wrong place at the wrong time.
As we will find out.
But it only happens in the future, when those in older generations expect to be gone, so who cares? They have needs now.
“But it only happens in the future, when those in older generations expect to be gone, so who cares? They have needs now.”
I don’t understand why you keep pushing this generational warfare crap. We need work on infrustructure, but the congressional Republicans are blocking it because they want to defeat Obama. Heaven forbid anything that is good for the country should happen on his watch. Heaven forbid that government should get credit for anything. It would be bad for their government-is-bad meme.
It is not a generational thing. Older folks support repairing infrustructure.
Older people not only support infrastructure overhaul, but need it worse that ever.
Older folks drive less, have fewer (or less energetic) domestic disputes, cross fewer streets, etc. than their younger counterparts.
We need it less, but we want the guarantee that it be consistently there more.
Freeway widening - why??
That is what happens when you breed like roaches.
The comments on the news websites are about how nuclear is dangerous, coal is polluting, and we need renewable energy. Apparently American’s don’t know the difference between a power grid and a power plant. Good show.
Americans no longer know up from down.
Some are actually blaming the grid failure on a massive solar flare eruption
By the way, this is the most common fear in the “Prepper” community and why they hoard (shelf-stabilized) food, fresh water, and guns/ammo. The breakdown of civilized society when the infrastructure stops working. Remember, with JIT logistics, the average super market only has three days of food available. If it takes longer than three days to get the grid up and running, people will begin to go hungry… Hunger leads to looting and rioting.
Imagine if that solar storm hit the US instead of India? Think Katrina on a national level…
Only one day if there is panic shopping. Seen happen too many times along the Gulf coast.
And still nothing has changed.
My comment with the link hasn’t shown up yet, but some are attributing the power-grid failure in India to a Corona Mass Ejection caused by an M6 class Solar Flare. Check out space.com for more details of the solar storm.
Maybe Armageddon/Zombie Apocalypse 2012 isn’t so far fetched…
I think someone forgot to bribe the electricy transmission guy.
But zombies are so much more interesting than simple incompetence or graft…
The drought is affecting hydroelectric production, and the transfer from State control of the grid to market control of the grid is creating an inequitable distribution system. Over-demand in one area creates an outage throughout the whole system. Expect more of these.
CIBC estimates that the federal government should consider further stimulus spending in the economy, now that various analysts fear a second recession.
The chief economist of CIBC, Avery Shenfeld believes Ottawa could even improve its financial situation by taking advantage of historically low interest rates to make borrowing.
Interest rates for a 30 year loan are currently below the expected growth rate in the long run, which means that the cost associated with debt would decline gradually, over time, as a share of gross domestic product (GDP).
CIBC believes that the Bank of Canada running out of resources to boost the economy, noting that rates are already very low and could be dangerous to encourage Canadians to borrow even more to support the housing market.
Mr. Shenfeld said he did not predict a recession and new suggestions are only a contingency plan to study if ever the conditions continued to deteriorate.
Canada is currently shooting pretty good business and the data expected Tuesday should show that the GDP has risen a solid 0.3% since April.
More and more analysts are concerned, however, the global recovery and warned that Canada could not escape the effects of a possible deterioration of the European crisis.
Global recovery?
‘a possible deterioration of the European crisis’
Did they say anything about the Canadian crisis?
‘Interest rates for a 30 year loan are currently below the expected growth rate in the long run’
Interest rates were low for many years in Japan and real estate prices fell the entire time. One thing that’s missed in this low rate euphoria; it means we’re in recession. It indicates deflation. Neither is good for loan owners.
Or it means that the government is buying up debt with fiat money driving down interest rates. This could be very good for debtors. The truth is probably both are occurring but the trillion dollar question is which way does it break inflation or deflation? That has been the question for at least six years with the inflation camp,so far, only slightly ahead.
Or it means that the government is buying up debt with fiat money
You mean the Federal Reserve, which is owned by the banking clan and not by the Federal Gov’t.
Which is issuing our currency to us at interest.
Recession….Yes….Deflation ?? Thats why interest rates are where they are…An attempt to pre-empt it… Successfully so far I would say…How does it break out at the end of the day…Make your bets…The question is, can the fed engineer a long, slow landing, debasing the currency a little bit at a time over a long period of time thereby avoiding the death spiral…Will see…
Are there any good deals in Japan? We’ve been hearing about the deflation and great personal savings rate for that nation for years. What has it gotten them? Japan still goes on. How will the USA compare with Japan in the long run?
Japan is a net trade exporter, at least they were up until Fukashima created an energy deficit which is being made up by energy imports now.
Also, the “Japanese saver” was the one buying all the Japanese debt. The Japanese government owes most of the debt to it’s citizens.
Compare that to the US, which has run huge trade deficits for years and energy deficits since the 1970’s. The national savings rate in this country is a joke and the majority of our debt is owed to foreigners… the only saving grace when we finally default.
“Did they say anything about the Canadian crisis?”
There has been a bit of talk about a Canadian made crisis (record levels of debt, maybe even tiny bubbles in Van and TO), but most of the talking head prefer to focus on foreign problems.
But at least our banking industry is solid!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/sp-downgrades-7-canadian-banks/article4445550/?cmpid=rss1
“The chief economist of CIBC, Avery Shenfeld believes Ottawa could even improve its financial situation by taking advantage of historically low interest rates to make borrowing.”
Sure…life in debt is better; more is better.
As long as you never pay it back, it’s all good.
7/30/2012; Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Memo Regarding Layoffs that may occur among Federal Contractors, including in the Defense Industry as a Result of Sequestration.
http://wdr.doleta.gov/directives/attach/TEGL/TEGL_3a_12_acc.pdf
It looks like the Dept of Labor says the Defense Contractors will not have to post their employee layoffs this time. Why???
Because this would occur just before the election and we know they don’t want this bad news then.
Maybe the Senate should pass a budget one of these years.
The reason is clearly stated right in the document:
3. Background. Questions have recently been raised as to whether the WARN Act requires Federal contractors—including, in particular, contractors of the Department of Defense (DOD)—whose contracts may be terminated or reduced in the event of sequestration on January 2, 2013, to provide WARN Act notices 60 days before that date to their workers employed under government contracts funded from sequestrable accounts. The answer to this question is “no.” In fact, to provide such notice would be inconsistent with the purpose of the WARN Act. This guidance provides clarity about the WARN Act responsibilities of Federal contractors and is intended to prevent the inefficient use of resources that are deployed in response to WARN Act notices.
The real reason is what I said, the election is looming and we don’t want massive layoffs just prior to that election.
My sister who works for a defense contractor has been notified that she’s being cut to 30 hours a week, along with the 25% pay cut.
Is she in PHX?
C’mon boys. You’re all slipping today on which lying douche bag to vote for.
How’s this?
Hey guys (and gals), things are going so well how about we just keep it all the same???
Besides YOU, who said anything was going well?
Vote for me! I’ll crack open that armageddon suitcase and mash the jolly, candy-like button just to end the suspense!
Hope and change!
——————-
Social Security Disability Insurance’s incentive not to work
The Washington Post | July 30,2012 | Charles Lane
This paradox is getting expensive. SSDI spending has doubled as a percentage of gross domestic product in the last 25 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The program paid $128.9 billion to 8.3 million beneficiaries in fiscal 2011, about one-fifth of all Social Security spending.
The answers lie in SSDI’s haphazard history. When first adopted in 1956, the program applied only to workers older than 50 who were terminally ill or unable to work for the rest of their lives. It was essentially an early-retirement program for people with cancer, heart disease and other grave physical conditions.
In 1960, however, Congress removed the minimum age requirement, and in 1965, it allowed people to qualify if they suffered from a condition rendering them unable to “engage in substantial gainful activity” for a year or more, including mental and musculoskeletal ailments.
After that, the rolls swelled with people claiming crippling back aches and depression. Both the Carter and Reagan administrations tried to cull undeserving cases, but the resulting backlash was so strong that Congress actually liberalized the rules in 1984. In 2010, mental and musculoskeletal conditions accounted for 54 percent of all new SSDI cases, according to the CBO.
Though Washington pays benefits, states help decide who qualifies. Approval rates vary wildly across the country. Experience has been consistent in one respect, however: Applications spike during serious recessions, as laid-off workers turn to SSDI when unemployment benefits run out. Thanks to the Great Recession, applications spiked in 2010 to an all-time high of 2.94 million, before declining slightly last year.
The program paid $128.9 billion to 8.3 million beneficiaries in fiscal 2011
Which is an average benefit of $1300 per month. That’s even less than the lucky ducky wage of $500/week
Yes but you get swag with that. Section 8 (which isn’t bad around here) and I think Medicare or Medicaid in 2 years, EBT, counseling etc.
Uh … my mom briefly received food stamps. I can tell you that there was no “swag”. She was receiving about $500 from SS. Her food stamp award? $50 a month. She received no other freebies.
This notion that people on welfare “live large” is a myth, especially those without children.
The only people living large from welfare is corporate welfare.
http://www.corporations.org/welfare/
Darn those facts.
Welfare in Ca is a good deal, when you work under the table, get sec 8, food stamps, free medical,and have a few anchors to seal the deal. You can afford things the working poor American can’t. I live around it.
“In 2010, mental and musculoskeletal conditions accounted for 54 percent of all new SSDI cases, according to the CBO.”
It’s the economy, not a scam. If you are obese, suffer from backaches, are mildly retarded or mentally ill, you will be less productive than a young college graduate.
When young college graduates are in short supply, such people will get jobs. When young college graduates are willing to work for zero pay as “interns,” they will not.
So what then? Let them starve or die in the street?
A “workfare” requirement could weed out those who actually could get jobs. Given the sloth in government, the cost of managing the SSI recipients would probably exceed their output, but it if pushed some off the rolls and helped others more on to jobs, it might be worth it.
I know several people who get SSD and work, both on and off th books. You can make up to a certain amount, used to be 1200 a month IIRC. So together with SSD and other govt benefits that go with SSD, you could make out pretty good in Oil City.
I know several people who get SSD and work, both on and off the books.
As do I. It irks me, but the none of the folks I know are living high on the hog. I don’t envy them. Even people who are gaming the system this way are still struggling financially and the hustle takes its toll.
If it keeps them from breaking my car window to get at my crappy stereo, it works for me.
Maybe sealing the borders would work better:
The Obama administration released illegal immigrants who went on to commit more crimes, including charges of 19 murders, 3 attempted murders and 142 sex crimes, the House Judiciary Committee said in a report Tuesday.
All told, the nearly 47,000 illegal immigrants the administration was notified of but declined to deport between 2008 and 2011 under its Secure Communities program had a recidivism rate of 16 percent, the committee said.
It is from the Washington Times so I know some will complain but we might all die from old age before the Washington Post prints the statistics.
There’s no practical way to seal a 3000 mile border.
WT WORKFARE DOES NOT WORK the only ones who benefit are the employees getting their paychecks…
It is a colossal waste of taxpayers money, Without forcing people to read, write and speak English.
The sitting in classes 25 hours a week 5 hours a day will eliminate all the fraud you can imagine…then onto some basic job training.
So what then? Let them starve or die in the street?
Of course. They aren’t “producers”…
Perhaps they could generate guide/outfitter revenue if we were allowed to hunt them for sport.
The “projected” avalanche of foreclosures has not materialized in my market (Sacramento foothills). The number of homes in NOD/NOT are down by 50% from 2009/2010 and dropping. Non-recourse states clear much faster than recourse states. The extra legal wrangling, the inability to collect….everyone would be better off if every state was non-recourse….
Clearing is an advantage but the non-recourse states seem to have had the bigger bubbles so that is the disadvantage not sure I am ready to call a winner without more data.
And when the inventory hits, you’ll submerge even deeper.
MA is a recourse state. My gut-feeling is that we see less strategic defaults here because the only way to get out from underneath the mortgage debt when in default is bankruptcy. Given the changes in bankruptcy law, it is much harder to get debt wiped, and much more common to be forced into a repayment plan, which marginalizes even bankruptcy given some part of your income will go towards unproductive debt payment.
Bottom line, I think more people are forced into the long view and use time and inflation to bring the mortgage debt back in line with market values here.
I don’t have data to back this assertion up, so take it for what it’s worth…
What inflation?
I’m not saying actual inflation, rather inflation expectations.
I think most people expect a certain amount of inflation, especially given housing prices have historically tracked inflation over the long run.
And these “expectations” are what get crushed.
Yes, but those expectations help drive behavior, which in turn seems to drive lack of inventory, especially distressed inventory*
*Caveat: plenty of inventory in places no one wants to live in MA: Western MA, Lynn, Brockton, New Bedford, etc.
My observation is that the banks are holding on to a HUGE amount of shadow inventory in Sac and probably the surrounding regions. During my (now abandoned) house search, I was amazed at the number of houses that were vacant while very well-maintained. I can’t imagine the banks can forestall the release of these forever, and when they hit the market? All bets off as far as pricing goes.
Young Deezy,
How long do you expect your “now abandoned” housing non-search to last?
Do you have any kind of time frame or is it just a sit back and wait and see what happens approach?
As many of you know, we’ve been looking since January. Outbid on 4 houses. Now looking very hesitantly.
There is absolutely no inventory.
The wife saw a house she fell in love with over the weekend. Priced low, as that’s the RE game here: list at 50-100K LESS than they know it will go for, and sit back and watch the buyers fight and drive up the price. A$$holes. I’m not playing.
I liked the house, too. Views, well-maintained Victorian with a lush garden, move-in ready. Really sweet house. No garage (that’s almost a deal killer for me).
Here’s what SF market looks like:
This house went on the market last Friday (4 days ago). No viewings til the open house on Sunday. Offers due THIS Thursday at 2pm.
I’ll keep y’all posted, but it’s likely the house will sell for way more than list with less than a week on the market.
I give up.
You just can’t fight that magnitude of stupid. You’re better off figuring out a way to fleece them yourself.
As regular old middle class people with jobs and kids, our choices our thus:
1. Continue paying $2700 month rent in our non-rent controlled rental with an elderly, meddling landlady. Another rental will cost us more (I’ve looked).
2. Buy a place for under $480K, with 90K interest-free down payment assistance from the city (deferred payment for 40 years) and 35K our own cash: PITI = $2100 month.
3. Wait some more.
4. Move to another city and leave our jobs, decent paying unionized teaching jobs with seniority, our friends, our kid’s schools, etc. and set out for another school district that is handing out pink slips to its newest hires.
Option 3 is the top of my list. We could deal with another rent increase if we had to, but if the LL dies, we are fooked.
The continuity of any government job in California is suspect at this point… I wouldn’t get to feeling to secure. Might be worth checking out greener pastures just to see what’s out there.
I find I need a LOT less to live on now that I am out of the state.
Sfrenter, there’s no such thing as “can’t find a cheaper rental”. You’re only saying that you refuse to move into a smaller place, a worse neighborhood, etc. Well, your artificial lifestyle minimum is going to cost you. We all make choices in life, and you’ve made yours, so live with it.
Are you seriously advising someone to move to the ghetto?
wow
State of California to borrow another $5 Billion”
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/26/news/economy/debt_ceiling_california/index.htm
Liquidate and get out of California while you still can.
TL said: “Are you seriously advising someone to move to the ghetto?”
Oh, I see. So you either live with $2700 month rent, or you live in the ghetto. Boy, that’s a rational outlook on… nothing, really.
Most of you wouldn’t be caught dead living in the sort of housing your parents raised you in. That’s the core problem. You have hyperinflated expectations about housing, neighborhoods, schools and workplaces.
Anyway, back to reality: There’s always cheaper housing. How about… SMALLER housing, for example? Did somebody pass a fucking law that mandated smaller housing all be torn down or something? Get a bunk bed for the kids and put ‘em in a smaller domicile, chalking up cheaper rent.
God, with every decade that passes I come to loathe American entitlement mentalities more and more.
“I was amazed at the number of houses that were vacant while very well-maintained.”
If you pay taxes, you are helping to keep those homes well-maintained. In fact, according to the article below, you are a part-owner of lots and lots of houses; sadly, sharing in their maintenance costs doesn’t entitle you to live in one of them.
Taxpayers pay millions to mow lawns of foreclosed homes
By Jonathan Karl, Richard Coolidge & Sherisse Pham | Power Players – Tue, Apr 10, 2012
American taxpayers own close to 200,000 vacant houses, and over the next year they will spend more than $40 million just to mow lawns at these properties. Taxpayers also foot the bills to paint walls, fix cabinets, plant flowers and more — expenses that just last year, exceeded a half a billion dollars.
The housing bailout has already cost taxpayers $124 million, now Americans are spending hundreds of millions more fixing up foreclosed homes to try and sell them. It is a bizarre and expensive side effect of the housing market collapse and failure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants that went into federal conservatorship in 2008.
Fannie Mae alone repaired nearly 90,000 homes last year.
“That is a lot of homes, and it is a lot of materials that need to be purchased,” said Jay Ryan, Fannie Mae’s vice president of real estate owned homes.
Ultimately, Ryan said, Fannie Mae pays electricity bills, property taxes, and the costs of general upkeep of properties to make sure houses are ready to sell. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have already sold hundreds of thousands of homes, but they continue to foreclose on thousands more every month. Real estate experts say getting rid of all of them is not going to happen any time soon.
“We’ve got to get the government out of the housing market, the mortgage market,” said Guy Cecala, CEO and publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance Publications. “That’s very difficult to do when the housing market is on its knees.
…
Cecala is full of crap.
If his banker buddies really wanted to “get the government out of the housing market,” then they are more than welcome to stop offering their mortgage paper to the government. If banks want to “get the government out of the housing market” by keeping those profitable mortgages for themselves, nobody is stopping them.
In fact, the government outright invited banks to retain a mere 5% of each mortgage that didn’t have 20% down (QRM, remember that?). And what did the banks do? Did they rejoice that the gov was finally going to let them “keep” their mortgages? No, they whined all over the tax-payer owned Regulations website that they would all go out of business if the meanie government didn’t buy their paper.
They would never make in the Galt-land they so worship.
What is your observation based upon?
Foreclosure Radar notes that Sacramento County had ~5,800 REO properties in June 2011. That number is now ~3,100, and has been falling by about 300 per month for the past 4 months.
http://www.foreclosureradar.com/california/sacramento-county-foreclosures
“Foreclosure Radar”
I had never seen that wealth of info before, thanks for the link.
Remember, the data is free, so it may be worth the price. That said, if you take a snapshot number and compare it to some other sites (like Realty Trac), the numbers are not all that dissimilar. I have no reason to believe these numbers are way off.
But your daily lies are more than enough reason not to believe your BS.
Nice area to be from. I had the chance to drive through Grass Valley and Colton last week. It sure beats 110 deg PHX.
Not sure about your area, but I still think that the hidden inventory is still there.
Is it possible that the government isn’t allowing the financial institutions to process this inventory?
Did anyone see the tariffs imposed yesterday on Mexican and Korean imports of washing machines in the US?
Smoot-hawley is here… too bad it’s too late, as there is very little left of a domestic manufacturing base for washing machines in the US.
As someone on zerohedge recently posted:
First up, currency war. Then, trade war. Last comes the shooting war.
How big a tariff? Link?
I saw it posted yesterday on zerohedge…
My zerohedge links often get lost, so just google the following:
“US Launches Global Washer Trade War”
Tariffs were:
*U.S. SETS DUTIES OF AS MUCH AS 82% KOREA-PRODUCED WASHERS
*U.S. SETS DUTIES OF 72% ON MEXICO-PRODUCED WASHING MACHINES
Interesting. I wonder how that squares with NAFTA?
Here’s the funny part: the suit was initiated by Whirlpool Corp., NA and the tariffs hit Whirlpool International imports, in addition to other brands…
Can you say Whirlpool Global VP’s/Managing Directors in a pissing contest?
whoa
Interesting.
Yeah The Town Maytag Left Behind
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-3445_162-3381945.html
Another example of the housing ‘recovery’ in Austin, TX. Homes are being taken off the market immediately with multiple offers
705 Summit View Pl Austin, TX 78703
$720,000
MLS 8541859
Listed on July 18th, 2012
Pending on July 29, 2012
Only 11 days on the market as active
4409 Balcones Dr Austin, TX 78731
$515,000
MLS 9387152
Listed on July 22, 2012
Pending on July 25, 2012
Only 3 days on the market as active
Previously sold for $409,900 on Sept 15, 2005
A 100k appreciation in 7 years? Sounds reasonable…
1115 W 10th St #104 Austin, TX 78703
$199,900 (678 sq ft)
MLS 5231873
Listed on July 27, 2012
Pending on July 29, 2012
Only 2 days on the market as active
I guess Austin really is part of California. 700K for a 2000 sq ft house.
So what is the appeal again? Is it the furnace hot weather or is it the sweltering humidity … I forget which one it is.
Apparently, it’s one of the few places where there are jobs. Additionally, every other magazine has listed Austin as either the best places for college grads, best town for single people, town with the fittest people or stuff along those line…
They say the same nonsense about Denver.
And what some non-Texan people forge is the 2.5% or so property tax bill or roughly 17.5k per year on a 700k home
Yikes… that tax is twice what I rent my 5 acre spread for.
And what some non-Texan people forge is the 2.5% or so property tax bill or roughly 17.5k per year on a 700k home
Yes, but TX doesn’t have an income tax…
Take the income tax we paid last year to MA, add the real estate tax we paid last year in MA, and it comes to approx. 60% of that $17,500. That’s for a property valued at less than half your $700k home.
So who makes out? (well, discounting the whole drought, 100+ degree heat, and lots of illegals)
My Colorado income tax bill last year was 3K.
Property tax bill was 2K on a 350K house.
Looks like you’re on the winning side of the state tax-arbitrage game…
I paid $3,200 property tax on assessed value of $300K.
Our MA income tax bill $7,500 for last year.
Don’t forget house insurance will run you another 0.75%.
Hipsters.
You have no idea… I hate hipsters!
They look like they need to bathe so bad, and they pretty much have taken over certain parts of the city!
True, that. Austin has developed quite the music industry. It’s on the same level as, say, Nashville. Or New York or LA.
It’s mostly alternative music though. Very little mainstream stuff is really happening… In other words, they make no $$$
So you get to hear some cool bands if you go bar hopping, which I don’t.
As I said yesterday, there is a lot of “stupid money” in Austin.
As for jobs, there are lot of jobs in all the other major cities in Texas.
There are realistically priced rentals in Nashville - so it’s not the music ndustry, it’s the hipsters.
Another big industry in Nashville is bible publishing - I guess all those crosses scare some hipsters away. Kinda like vampires.
Surging MBTA ridership could overwhelm the system
The 390 million transit trips in Greater Boston last year were the most since 1946, and the T has registered a record 15 straight months of ridership growth… Riders who think it is crowded now should be prepared for 20 percent more company by the end of the decade
Here’s the money shot for me:
Some 30,000 housing units and 45 million square feet of commercial space are planned or under construction within a half mile of rapid transit and commuter rail stops, in places like the South Boston Waterfront and Kendall Square in Cambridge.
In Assembly Square in Somerville, construction is underway on a $1.5 billion redevelopment to turn a former industrial zone into 2,100 residences, a hotel, and more than 2 million square feet of office and retail space. The linchpin is a new Assembly stop that the state is shoehorning onto the Orange Line between Sullivan and Wellington stations.
“What’s happening in Boston and other major urban markets is people want to live closer to the city,’’ said Don Briggs, lead developer of Assembly Square and senior vice president of Federal Realty Investment Trust, based in Maryland. “They want to be connected by trains. They want to drive their cars less. They want to live in great urban amenity-filled areas.
Most people probably still want suburbs.
But suburban type places are now ubiquitous and in surplus.
Meanwhile, there are relatively few economically and socially viable urban places left. Thus the shortage. If Cleveland and Detroit hadn’t died off, we wouldn’t have this problem.
The question is why is this happening in cities like Boston, New York, San Francisco, Austin, etc? I understand the money flows in Washington D.C. and the energy boom in North Dakota and Minnesota , but some cities (mostly coastal) are seeing quite the economic recovery while others are dying slowly…
Is it purely the capital flows?
Meredit Whitney predicts 50,000 more wallstreet jobs will be cut.
50,000 houses will not be bought in near future.
Oh, they’ll be bought by employees of other industries that can suddenly afford them, so the industries can afford to stay here.
The NY economy isn’t dependent on Wall Street bubbles. The NY public sector tax base is.
50 years of unbroken liberal/democrat/public union goon absolute control will do that…
If Cleveland and Detroit hadn’t died off, we wouldn’t have this problem.
Here we are, just before 10 a.m., and the dual banana person finally uses the word “goon” in a post.
Hmmm, a bit slow with the use of the g-word today. Are you okay? Feeling all right? Should we send some non-union chicken soup your way?
That, and another poster calling people who disagree with his socio-economic views “thugs”.
The best thing we can do is to ignore them when they engage in their name calling.
Dehumanization of one’s enemy is the first step. Then we move on to criminalization and execution “for the good of the country.”
He may seem like a harmless gasbag, but during hard times, his kind of histrionics find eager angry listeners.
By god, he’s a danger to this great nation!
I will make sure I remember your advice.
As soon as I see you repudiate the “teabagger” comments and the “Bush is Hitler” comments, etc.
Liberals are a funny group but take themselves WAY too seriously…
Calling someone a teabagger is hardly the same as calling someone a “thug” or a “goon”, which you do on a daily basis. The teabagger sobriquet gets tossed around her very occasionally anyway. For instance, no one today used that term. I looked in Bits Buckets all the way back to July 24, and it wasn’t used a single time. On the other hand, I wish I had a dollar for every time you say “goon”.
As for “Bush is Hitler”, when was the last time anyone here said that, unlike your daily frothing at the mouth, with your “goons”?
You need to get over yourself. If you have arguments, make them. But your incessant usage of the word goon paints an unflattering picture of you.
Tebagger is out. The new term is “Teabilly.”
Teabilly! That is an insult to real, mind yer own business, help your neighbor when needed, hillbillies.
Boston, New York, San Francisco, Austin,
Sounds like most of the winners are liberal cities. The other ones just happen to be near natural resources.
The winners are cities where cheap money flows the fastest. Add DC to the list as well.
where cheap money flows the fastest
Why does cheap money flow the fastest there?
Why does cheap money flow the fastest there?
Indeed. Good question. Anyone have any insights? Again, D.C. is a given as the center of Federal power, and New York City with Wall St. makes sense (even with layoffs), as do the energy plays in the Bakkan.
My only guess is Venture Capital and tech business investment as the common theme among the three. Boston has higher education, biotech/pharma, and defense contracting as well…
Sorry, “among the three” being Boston, San Francisco, and Austin…
The suburbs will be the new ghettos.
YMMV, some will, others won’t.
Unless the Agriculture picks up I am worried about small towns. Suburbs will fine, more and more businesses are setting up shops in suburbs. You don’t have to drive to city center for suite and tie jobs.
No one wears suits and ties in tech, except for the aptly nick named “suits”
Get in before prices go even higher… :-/
——————————-
Home prices rose in all major US cities in May
Boston Globe | 07/31/2012 | CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER
WASHINGTON (AP) — Home prices rose in May from April in every city tracked by a leading index, a sign that increasing sales and tight inventories are supporting a modest housing recovery.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday showed increases in all of the 20 cities tracked. And a measure of national prices rose 2.2 percent from April to May, the second increase after seven months of flat or declining readings.
Chicago, Atlanta and San Francisco posted the biggest monthly increases. Detroit, San Diego and Charlotte posted the smallest gains.
Phoenix, one of the hardest-hit cities in the housing slump, posted the strongest year-over-year gain in home prices. Still, prices there remain more than 50 percent below their peak, reached in summer 2006.
‘‘The housing market seems to be stabilizing, but we are definitely in wait and see mode for the next few months,’’ he said.
Don’t home prices normally rise from April to May every year?
At any rate, not to worry — it will take a few months for the lagged impact of the May-June Wall Street swoon to show up as unexpected housing price declines.
The opinion from people who ACTUALLY determine house prices.
Housing Slump Not Over, Mortgage-Bond Investors Say in Survey
By Jody Shenn - Jul 30, 2012 11:39 AM ET
Bloomberg
Mortgage-bond investors aren’t convinced that the U.S. housing bust is over, according to a survey by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Only 34 percent of respondents in a poll last week agreed that “home prices have bottomed nationally,” with 11 percent expecting values to fall an additional 5 percent or more, according to a July 27 report by the bank’s analysts. A total of 56 percent said prices will decline less than 5 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-30/housing-slump-not-over-mortgage-bond-investors-say-in-survey.html
“A total of 56 percent said prices will decline less than 5 percent.”
Wouldn’t a 2006 survey have produced far more bullish results?
I just typed this before I read your response…
“Are these the same mortgage bond investors who were BUYING bonds during the bubble because they didn’t see a massive, over-inflated housing market?
Or the ones who sold them short?”
Unless these “bond investors” are the same people who saw the bubble and were shorting the bond market, their credibility is 0.
Unintended consequences be damned, full speed ahead!
Instead of Congress coming up with coherent trade, energy, manufacturing and general business policies which will encourage employment, and domestic production and consumption, they’re abdicating and letting the Central Banks use manipulation of the money supply and bond markets as a substitute.
The blame for all of this ultimately comes down to the legislators who we elected to lead. Instead they’re behaving more as petulant royal courtiers (”If I can’t have everything I want, then no one will have anything!”) than elected representatives of the people.
Central Banks Search Toolbox for Ideas as Growth Slows
By Simon Kennedy and Rich Miller - Jul 26, 2012 8:16 AM ET
Bloomberg
Central banks are digging deeper into their tool kits in search of innovative ways to unclog bank lending and keep a weakening world economy afloat.
With the fifth anniversary of the financial crisis approaching in August, policy makers from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England all meet within 24 hours next week. Central banks, facing a global recovery that’s sputtering even after they delivered trillions of dollars of liquidity and near-zero interest rates, are having to consider fresh strategies to combat the slowdown.
Among the options up for consideration by the monetary authorities in addition to potentially doubling-down on previous policies: taking some of the credit risk of new lending onto their own balance sheets and forcing commercial banks to pay for parking cash in central banks’ coffers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-25/central-banks-search-toolbox-for-ideas-as-growth-slows.html
“Central banks are digging deeper into their tool kits in search of innovative ways to unclog bank lending and keep a weakening world economy afloat.”
The words ‘banks’ and ‘innovative’ should not be used in the same sentence, unless accompanied by ‘unintended consequences’.
Facebook, time to get in?
Down 43% from IPO price.
How much farther to zero?
Do they make a profit?
Whats is their price at a P/E of 10?
I read yesterday that advertisers are starting to analyze their clickthrough on the ads they pay for, and finding that 70-80% of them are from bots.
If this gets confirmed as widespread, look out below.
Here’s the linkey-doo about the bot thingie. You’ll find the story comments to be especially enjoyable.
Was there ever a more appropriate ticker symbol than FB?
Certainly resonates with the HBB crowd, doesn’t it?
And by the way, the less advertisers are throwing money at social media for advertisement on the web, the more they are throwing elsewhere.
Who are the winners if Facebook isn’t attracting the money?
Google is the obvious choice, but also other websites (Yelp?).
Even GOOG Ad clicks are plagued with bots. They will figure it out soon.
But the bots can employ cloaking devices.
Those mean Germans are such party poopers!
July 31, 2012, 1:14 p.m. EDT
U.S. stocks fall as Germany curbs confidence
By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks fell Tuesday as media reports chilled hope Europe would take bold steps to curb its debt crisis, overshadowing an increase in U.S. consumer confidence.
The U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank face critical tests this week amid heightened expectations that they are moving toward new actions to tackle fragility in the global economy.
“Europe lumbers from crisis to crisis,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates, of the European Central Bank meeting in two days. Read preview of ECB meeting.
“They do enough to postpone things for a couple of months, and it gets pushed to the back burner but doesn’t come off the stove. Now there is a lot riding on what the [ECB] does Thursday.”
…
The printing of money during the Weimer Republic lead to inflation that crushed the middle class and lead to the rise of the Nazi party. Hitler lead to the total destruction of Germany and death of millions of Germans. Can’t see why the Germans will not listen to Krugman and just start printing money.
I’d be more worried about this dire prediction if this guy’s predictions weren’t always so dire!
Regardless of whether he is on target, you have to admire Farrell’s flair for financial entertainment.
July 31, 2012, 12:04 a.m. EDT
The Real Crash is dead ahead as 2008 is forgotten
Commentary: Ironically, you’ll win by buying banks now
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — “Facebook will become the poster child for the current social-media bubble,” warns economist Gary Shilling in his latest Forbes column, “just as Pets.com was for the dot-com bubble.” Yes, Wall Street is repeating the 2000 dot-com crash as today’s social-media bubble crashes and burns.
Think history folks: Remember 2000-2002? The economy suffered a 30-month recession and a brutal bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 11,722, then crashed, losing over 4,000 points dropping below 7,500, down more than 43%, with massive losses of more than $8 trillion in market cap.
But it gets worse: Shilling’s bluntly warning: “If we aren’t already in a recession, we’re getting very close.” Yes, he’s more reserved than Nobel economist Paul Krugman, whose latest book goes beyond hinting that the America economy is repeating the 2000-2002 recession, His title says it all: “End This Depression Now!”
But the scariest fact is that America’s warring politicians, CEOs and Super Rich can’t even see the obvious link between the 2012 social-media bubble and the 2008 Wall Street credit bubble that nearly bankrupt our monetary system and forced Congress and the Fed into bailing out our too-big-to-manage banks to an estimated $29.7 trillion in cash, credits, cheap money loans and debt relief.
But, unfortunately, the banks still haven’t learned the lessons of history. Instead, they dug in their heels, spending hundreds of million on lobbyists, fighting all reform efforts, went back to business-as-usual, sabotaging America and ultimately themselves.
Déjà vu: here we are four years later. Again mired in another presidential election, right back where we were in the summer of 2008. In denial, trapped in lies and mean-spirited theatrics, ignoring warnings, blinded, obsessed about the smell of election victories no matter the cost, even if it triggers a recession.
Yes, déjà vu all over again. Four short years. We forget. We’re back repeating the same buildup scenario to another meltdown.
Worse, bankers, politicians and billionaires just don’t seem to care. And you get the foreboding feeling that it really doesn’t matter who wins the election. This war will go on till 2016: For one party and their billionaire super PACs will do anything to hold on to the presidency, and the other, backed by their billionaire super PACs, will do anything to regain it.
Politics is now a deadly blood sport that reminds us of the “Hunger Games.”
…
Worse, bankers, politicians and billionaires just don’t seem to care.
Because they know they will come out smelling like a rose, while the rest of us flounder in the cesspool?
Politics has always been a deadly blood sport.
“America’s warring politicians, CEOs and Super Rich can’t even see the obvious link between the 2012 social-media bubble and the 2008 Wall Street credit bubble”
I don’t know about this statement. Anecdotal evidence only here. When Facebook’s stock went for sale at $39, I listened to the radio talk about it. Most, a clear majority, in the Bay Area anyway, thought that not only was it overvalued, but that FB was the flavor of the day and that something else would come along to take its place. The news articles I read all raised that same question. Very few were raising questions about the credit bubble.
Granted, the author is referring to “America’s warring politicians, CEOs and Super Rich”, but as dense as they may be, they can’t be any worse than the average guy on the street.
And I should mention that the same people who were calling FB overvalued also sang its praises as a great tool.
So much dire stock market prognostication, so few remaining bulls…is the entire world abandoning Wall Street?
Markets
Why More Heavy Selling May be Ahead for Stocks
MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert explains on The News Hub why he believes the market will not be able to mount a sustainable rally until the Wall of Worry gets rebuilt.
Up Next
Fed, ECB Meet to Tackle Global Economy
7/25/2012 4:51:46 PM3:46
John Maudlin’s Article on the ECB this morning was pretty dire.
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/outsidethebox/joan-sees-red
“On 20th August, the Greek government will have to borrow 3.2 billion from one arm of the Eurozone (from the EFSF) in order to repay another (the ECB). Yet Greece is insolvent. The very idea of an insolvent entity borrowing more from a community, like the Eurozone, in order to repay that same community is obscene. All it does is to shift the burden from the Central Bank to the taxpayers of Germany, Holland, Austria and Finland. This is not an act of solidarity with Greece.”
The best part of the article is below his signature and you have to subscribe to his free news letter to read the rest.
I wonder how long the Eurozone will drag out the serial collapsing of the PIIGS? Greece hasn’t finished unwinding while Spain is on deck, doing warm up swings, while Portugal and Italy wait their turn in the dugout.
I think this whole serial bail out garbage could go on for years, if not decades.
Yeah I suspect you’re right about it dragging on for years.
Last week I had the chance to visit with a German cousin that said the German “people” were tired of the whole thing and wanted to quit supporting Greece.
My concern is that once the dominos start falling, the whole world is going to fall into a deep depression.
Then we’ll have a big war to cheer everybody up.
When it comes to lifting the spirits, there’s nothing quite like the Housing Bubble Blog.
Treasury Secretary Geithner’s letter to Director FHFA on the use of principal forgiveness by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Seems ‘ole Tim is none too pleased that Fannie and Freddie aren’t embracing HAMP and reducing principal for struggling homeowners.Who should we dislike here?
The free sh*t army says give us more free sh*t
Indeed. I have a tough time embracing the idea that these struggling homeowners deserve principal write-downs… there is a perfectly legitimate and legal way to deal with default, without getting into the legalities of rewriting contracts, not to mention moral hazard: foreclosure
Ocwen Financial’s program is:
a) target a mortgage write down, in an amount that takes the loan to 95% of today’s value, but do so only 1/3 per year for 3 years as long as the borrower is current; and
b) Ocwen gets 25% of any home price appreciation.
Compare this to a foreclosure/fire sale scenario, and you can see why the principal writedowns are in Ocwen’s best interest…it may not be too bad for the borrower either, but it will recover more money for Ocwen (and has had lower re-default rates as well).
Does anyone here really thing this (write downs) is going to happen? Especially after every previous promise to “help” was nothing more than an empty shell?
Heck, I recall a few months ago there was all the buzz that everyone with a freddy/fanny owned loan was going to be automatically refi’d into a lower interest rate mortgage. Funny how that didn’t happen either.
It’s all election year noise. The evictions will recommence at Christmastime.
ft dot com
July 31, 2012 8:14 pm
Regulator blocks US mortgage relief plan
By Robin Harding in Washington
The Obama administration’s hopes of a new debt forgiveness programme at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage companies, have been dashed even though their regulator found it could save public money in some scenarios.
“FHFA has concluded that the anticipated benefits do not outweigh the costs and risks,” said Edward DeMarco, acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the independent regulator that controls Fannie and Freddie, on Tuesday.
…
The FHFA’s move drew an immediate response from Tim Geithner, the Treasury secretary, who said in a letter to Mr DeMarco that his agency had selectively cited its own numbers and made the wrong decision for the country.
“In view of the clear benefits that the use of principal reduction by the GSE [government-sponsored enterprise] would have for homeowners, the housing market and taxpayers, I urge you to reconsider this decision,” wrote Mr Geithner.
The Treasury had been pushing the FHFA to take advantage of an administration scheme called the Home Affordable Mortgage Programme Principal Reduction Alternative (Hamp PRA).
In an important shift, the FHFA found that in some scenarios, having Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac use Hamp PRA could save some public money. Previously it had estimated that principal reductions would mean losses for taxpayers.
The two housing finance agencies, which dominate the US mortgage market, were taken into conservatorship during the financial crisis so their profits and losses are largely born by the public.
…
Give it up, for chrissakes — the election is only three months away!
It appears that I may be priced out forever.
Oh well, I’ll just keep renting at 1/2 the cost of owning.
Smart man.
yep.
One-half the cost of owning?
Bank the difference.
One way to look at it: Your landlord is subsidizing your savings.
That’s if you choose to go that route, probably most people don’t.
Got weakness?
July 31, 2012, 10:55 p.m. EDT
China manufacturing weakens at slower rate: HSBC
By V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China manufacturing activity weakened at a slower rate in July, as an increase in factory output helped offset a sharp drop in employment, according to data released by HSBC on Wednesday.
HSBC’s final reading of its manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 49.3 for July, up from June’s print at 48.2, but still below the 50-point threshold that divides expansion from contraction.
The final result fell short of the survey’s preliminary reading, released late last month, which had come in at 49.5.
“Final manufacturing PMI confirmed only a modest improvement of manufacturing conditions, thanks to the initial effect of the earlier easing measures,” said Hongbin Qu, a co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC.
“But this is far from inspiring, as China’s growth slowdown has not been reversed meaningfully, and downside pressures persist with external markets continuing to deteriorate,” Qu said, adding he expected Beijing to step up its policy easing to support growth and employment.
…
Aug. 1, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Darkening skies over Europe
The euro zone may be forced to make a difficult choice soon.
By Jon Markman, MarketWatch
Seattle, Wash. (MarketWatch) — You can’t spell Spain without “pain,” and you can’t spell euro zone without nearly breaking down in tears as you contemplate the latest unraveling of the continent.
On some level, it is hard to make room in your mind for how badly the financial condition of Spain has unwound in the past two months, but you need to do that because it is as serious as Greece, but with bigger consequences.
Don’t get tired of all the bad news. You still need to pay attention even though policy makers are trying to cobble together another in a series of rickety, short-term fixes this week with twine and chewing gum. There is a controlled explosion rippling across the continent, and just because it is summer, does not mean it’s not real.
Despite the efforts made toward the 100-billion-euro bailout of its banking system last month, Spain has not yet evaded a banking crisis at all. And it has not evaded its sovereign debt crisis. And its fiscal situation is worsening because the Spanish people are freaking out about the fourth in a series of harsh austerity measures. The regional government system in Spain is also getting worse, with Valencia needing a bailout now and Catalan soon to follow.
And all this time, the euro zone paymasters in Germany are sick and tired of people asking for more money. They’re ready to dump their Greece project, and will try to drop the hammer on Spain as well — the heck with euro zone unity. Which can only lead to one thing, and that is a social and political crisis, as the Spanish and Greek people take to the streets to protest, stepping out on their jobs, cutting output, and, in turn, reducing the taxes that can be collected to solve the fiscal crisis.
The drain in Spain is a classic deflationary spiral lifted out of the history textbooks and dropped into a modern, beautiful country full of hard-working and lovely people with iPhones and vacation house and some of the best food in the world.
The latest plan by the Spanish government to generate more funds calls for an increase in the consumption tax, which is similar to a sales tax (or a VAT) to 21% — up from the already super-high 18%. Policy makers are also demanding a cut in unemployment benefits, an increase in wage cuts, and layoffs of more state workers. The way analyst Gregory Weldon counts it up, it looks like 110 billion euros in austerity measures have been launched at the Spanish people over the next three years. This in a country where youth unemployment is already 52%.
Where has all the money gone? A lot of bad real estate investments that did not pan out, all across the country. Tens of thousands of kids dropped out of school so they could build houses that now sit empty, and the youths have few higher-education skills. Last week, the Spanish government was forced to spend 18 billion euros to create an emergency financing facility for regional governments, who are saddled with their own debt, a great deal of which matures at the end of this year.
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“Baby steps”
July 30, 2012, 4:36 p.m. EDT
Fed expected to take small easing step
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve will take the small easing step of pledging to keep rates low for longer at the end of its two-day meeting this week, analysts said on the eve of the event.
At the moment, the Fed has said it expects to keep rates exceptionally low until late 2014. Economists say the Fed is likely to push this out until mid-2015.
“Extending the forward guidance is the least-costly option, and if their goal is to keep long-term interest rates low, it will do the trick,” said Scott Brown, chief economist with Raymond James.
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