Same. In many ways, I favor conservative viewpoints. However, they need to reflect careful thinking and have a basis in classical liberalism. If you want the government out of the economy, you need to be realistic about what this means. Not just talking points or party-line B.S. Smithers is a joke and he screws up threads. I downloaded Joshua Tree because I barely have time to read this place these days and I can’t be bothered to spend time reading stupdity.
People do not seem to realize that their opinion of the world is also a confession of character.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
Comment by Overtaxed
2012-08-07 08:10:14
Since it appears I missed some good debate, I’m off to read yesterday’s posts.
Comment by Neuromance
2012-08-07 08:29:44
“Controversy is only dreaded by the advocates of error.”
If you don’t fully understand your opponent’s position, then you don’t understand your own.
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-07 09:40:58
I live in the liberal bubble that is San Francisco, and generally would have to travel at least an hour away to find someone who has opinions like Smithers, so I find it pretty interesting.
People like him are mostly theoretical, to me.
Comment by MrBubble
2012-08-07 12:11:25
“People like him are mostly theoretical, to me.”
They were to us too, until we moved from SF to the Central Coast. While they are theoretical creatures to you, we interact with them on a daily basis. It’s quite jarring to hear some of these opinions in person and although I do defend their right to have their opinions, it doesn’t make hearing them any more pleasant (or any more true!).
I don’t mind intelligently-expressed opinions. Smithers is dumb. I have limited time and will entertain interesting, thoughtful comments of any stripe but yield no time to dimwitted cliches and soundbites.
That wasn’t an attack, but rather an objective description.
If you go to yesterday’s bits bucket, you will find an exhaustive effort I made to shoot down one of the many strawmen Eddie shared with us yesterday (the one about how stocks did so much better than bonds over the past four years).
Nobody pays me to suffer fools.
Comment by Harry Connick Jr Community College Graduate
2012-08-07 07:24:49
Just top off my head I see camp Banana is outnumbered and outfoxed by camp Alpha any time of the day in this blog.
Right - Banana, Smitty, Lip
Left - Alpha, Ahansen, Rio, Turkey, Highway, Oxide, Polly, Slim, Colorado, Professor, GSFixr, sfrenter
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-07 07:45:39
Left? Just goes to show how out of touch everyone is.
I’m a moderate, but to the left and the right I’m either one or the other, I just happen to hate the right more these days mainly because of this:
WASHINGTON | Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:30pm EDT
(Reuters) - Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic bill on Tuesday to end tax deductions enjoyed by companies that close their U.S. plants and move overseas.
With a largely party-line vote of 53-45, Democrats failed to muster the 60 votes needed to clear a Republican procedural hurdle against the measure, which would also give employers a tax break to hire new U.S. workers.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-07 07:56:25
Left - Alpha, Ahansen, Rio, Turkey, Highway, Oxide, Polly, Slim, Colorado, Professor, GSFixr, sfrenter
Yup, that’s me, all right! Over there on the left wing of the airplane.
You hate the right because they opposed the bill? What else was in the bill or was it a stand alone issue? Hate is a mighty big word, unless we are talking political correctness and then I guess it’s ok by some. One thing for sure, the longer this financial mess lingers the more hostilities rise to the top and certain segments of the population decide only they and that part of the government they support know what’s best for the rest.
Comment by Harry Connick Jr Community College Graduate
2012-08-07 08:01:14
Left? Just goes to show how out of touch everyone is.
Don’t go by me. That was just my observation based on my own bias. I have been trying hard to get this left vs right or dems vs repubs phoney debates completely out of my system.
Comment by Anonymous Coward
2012-08-07 08:17:38
I completely agree with Harry Connick Jr Community College Graduate’s view of the imbalance on this blog. It didn’t use to be that way. I like the debate, and it’s in danger of getting a bit one-sided. I woudl hate to see Smithers go.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-07 08:30:11
I’m a moderate, but to the left and the right I’m either one or the other
Same here. I would never pass as a “leftie” due to my views on abortion and other social issues. To them I’m a right winger.
But because I don’t lick the boots of the super rich, and because of that I’m considered a left winger.
Comment by polly
2012-08-07 08:46:55
I have to bite my tongue every time I talk to my parents, I’ve moved so far right from my family. I’d be an MA/NY style Rockefeller republican now if there were any of them around. Republicans used to understand that businesses can’t function without infrastructure including an educated workforce. Did anyone else hear the report this morning about e-businesses in India trying to function when they can only get a few hours of electricity a day?
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 09:02:45
Republicans used to understand that businesses can’t function without infrastructure including an educated workforce.
Somewhere along the line, the Republican party went off the deep end. My grandfather was a lifelong New England/Rockefeller Republican- he wouldn’t recognize the party today. And wouldn’t vote for it. He voted for fiscal prudence, and that’s actually the domain of the Democrats nowadays. They’re the ones who run surpluses. Republicans just give out unaffordable tax breaks to the super-rich in the hope of destroying the system.
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-07 09:44:28
Nobody pays me to suffer fools.
You get paid to post here? Hey Ben, where’s my cut?
Comment by oxide
2012-08-07 09:52:45
Y’all missed the most important word!!!
OUTFOXED
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-08-07 10:08:20
“Left”….
Moi ? An old fashioned Eisenhower Republican?
The “American Way” is to come up with solutions for problems.
The new “Republimentalist” party:
A): Can’t take ideological blinders off long enough to see the problems
B): Because of A), generates half baked solutions.
Example: Economy sucks, because everyone in the lowest 90% of the income range are seeing pay freezes/cuts/no paycheck at all, while being charged inflated prices for essentials.
The Repub solution is to hand even more money to the top 10%ers. To “invest”. In China.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-07 10:11:48
My grandfather was a lifelong New England/Rockefeller Republican- he wouldn’t recognize the party today.
Heck, I don’t recognize it anymore, and I was a registered Republican for over 20 years. I voted for Reagan, Bush Sr. and even W in 2000.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-07 10:26:58
Moi ? An old fashioned Eisenhower Republican?”
Because we fail the “purity test”.
The Repub solution is to hand even more money to the top 10%ers. To “invest”. In China.
That isn’t an act of cluelessness, it’s intentional.
Crack me up, Harry. Pro-gun rights, Bible quoting, audit the Fed, let the market go to ground, require a high school equivalency and two years of service for citizenship, pro H-1B, anti-teen mother, globalist, anti-MIC, pension-reforming little old leftist me.
Yep. You nailed it.
As for blithers, his postings are so formulaic and predictable that I find them an invaluable time-saver. No need to monitor Fox, Clear Channel, RNCtea, et al because he does it for us and sends us a daily summery to boot. Refuting his nonsense with actual facts (not opinions) keeps our minds sharp and our information current. So I thank him for his service.
Thanks, Smithers! Now, on your knees so I can use your back for my mid-morning tea tray. And while you’re down there my new Louboutins could use a good cleaning….
-xox Ms. Burns
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-07 11:16:38
Heck, I don’t recognize it anymore, and I was a registered Republican for over 20 years. I voted for Reagan, Bush Sr. and even W in 2000.
______________________
So you voted for Reagan but won’t vote for Romney - the guy who in 2002 described himself as a progressive - because he’s too radical.
Makes sense.
Comment by Harry Connick Jr Community College Graduate
2012-08-07 11:18:29
Crack me up, Harry. Pro-gun rights, Bible quoting, audit the Fed, let the market go to ground, require a high school equivalency and two years of service for citizenship, pro H-1B, anti-teen mother, globalist, anti-MIC, pension-reforming little old leftist me.
May be I misjudged you. I must have formed my opinions based on your relentless support for government health care. I suppose the government taking over 20% of the economy is a small potato compared to you being anti-teen mother, right?
What is anti-teen mother anyway? Do you hate all teen moms?
While at it, what’s your view on single moms?
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-07 11:18:38
By the way Colorado, how do you feel about the Democrat party’s changes? From “ask what you can do for your country” to “free shit for everyone” in 50 years.
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-08-07 11:49:28
“So, if you don’t like the posts you attack the poster?”
This does happen on this blog and that’s unfortunate, but I think that’s a simplification of what’s happening here. When someone absolutely refuses to address the points being made or answer very logical questions, but instead throws extremist rhetoric at every argument it does start to get tiresome.
The extremist (both right and left) are almost rabid in their desire to ram their opinions down other’s throats. And when they simply parrot a worn argument without addressing any new information or input they add nothing to the debate except a lot of useless hot air. And they destroy the level of meaningful discourse here.
How many times was “commie,” “leftist,” “fascist,” used yesterday? And towards people most of us know have many centralist and moderate views? Even above people are being identified as left or right without the realization that most of us are in the middle on a lot of issues. (Or have some traditionally conservative views and some liberal as In Colorado pointed out.)
Having a strong right-wing or left-wing orientation is not a bad thing. We need a variety of voices on this blog to truly analyze tough situations (and there are no easy solutions no matter how much one might wish Rush or Jesse had all the answers.) But when debate simply descends into name calling and a viral hatred for those with different life experiences and viewpoints we are not going to come up with, much less implement, any solutions.
I come here because it’s a group of bright, concerned, mostly American people who are concerned about the way the nation is headed. (Also people who saw a problem when I did and kept me sane when everyone wanted to label me a nut job.) There’s enough brain power to come up with some realistic ideas and possible changes. And maybe we can’t change everything, but we can certainly try to change something.
Seriously folks, if the smart people here can’t debate ideas/solutions without delving into name-calling or rabid hatred, what hope does the rest of America have?
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-07 12:14:40
I come here because it’s a group of bright, concerned, mostly American people who are concerned about the way the nation is headed. (Also people who saw a problem when I did and kept me sane when everyone wanted to label me a nut job.) There’s enough brain power to come up with some realistic ideas and possible changes. And maybe we can’t change everything, but we can certainly try to change something.
“… I suppose the government taking over 20% of the economy is a small potato compared to you being anti-teen mother, right…?”
Actually, all things considered, they’re part and parcel of the problem. Although I’ll challenge your 20% figure, I am above all a pragmatist, and our public health care system is broken.
It would be cheaper in the long run (if not the short and transitional runs) to convert our chaotic, fraud-ridden and hugely-inefficient multi-layered insurance/pharmaceutical-industry-corporate-welfare system to a single-payer public health system that covers our nation’s myriad public health issues; including also the training of its personnel, facilities maintenance, research and development entities, and outreach clinics (including a vastly-expanded end-of-life and hospice network). I’ll not monopolize Ben’s bandwidth to explain, but suspect you can Google the concept for yourself.
Curiously, our military manages that now, as do most first-world governments. As did the USA up until Richard Nixon and his insurance buddies got their hands on our reimbursement system.
The concept of government-run public services isn’t unprecedented in our country. Our postal service handles our routine mails quite successfully (the current financial kerfuffles have to do with a $55B SURPLUS in their pension system more than their day-to-day operating costs). And despite wide-spread cultural difficulties, (again, pension and health-care costs are a huge factor) our public school system still manages to educate the vast majority of our young people and staff our universities to the envy of much of the world.
Not all government-run systems are better managed by private enterprise. Health, education, and military services are among them. Please note, this is not to say there isn’t a place for private medical practices for elective procedures and protocols. But what constitutes “elective” medicine is where we should be directing our national conversation.
Secondly, I”ll admit to not being epidemiologically specific in my categorization of teen moms, (for the aforementioned bandwidth issues) but to clarify:
I do not support paying uneducated, insolvent teenagers (or anyone else, for that matter) to have babies on the public dime. You get what you subsidize. That said, I’d make birth control and abortion services available free and on demand, (via that public health service we were discussing) and subsidize girls who do NOT get pregnant before they finish school. Remove the financial incentive to make bastard children for a living, and people will stop making bastard children for a living.
“…While at it, what’s your view on single moms…?”
I am a single mom. I waited until I was 33 years old and financially solvent before I got pregnant. I got my sons got through college and medical school without student loans and without relying on ancillary public monies other than our educational system. Both of my sisters (an MD and a nurse MBA) are single moms who’ve done the same. Who said I “hated” single moms? I simply don’t support irresponsible and indiscriminate breeding as a career choice.
Once again you articulate the soul of this blog and why this disparate family gathers at Ben’s table.
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-07 16:36:48
SD Bear,
My lunchtime response to your thoughtful post hasn’t shown up, so let me reiterate with a big “AMEN!”
Thank you for (again) articulating the soul of this online family and reminding us that thoughtful, courteous commentary is why we all gather here at Ben’s table. It’s only right that when un-convivial guests and whacky old aunties and uncles get a bit too boisterous, we’re rightly shunted off to the children’s table until we can learn to behave.
Now please pass the peas….
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-07 17:12:00
Now please pass the peas….
And do share the recipe for how the peas were prepared. Because they look delicious.
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-07 17:46:25
Well, it’s 105 here today (must be positively HELLISH in Bakersplat) so tonight’s snow pea pods are julienned and served atop a cold poached salmon salad with toasted almonds and a raspberry-mint vinaigrette.
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-07 18:16:02
And this is why my idea of forcing them to sit in class 25 hours a week and learn English for their EBT card will work.
I do not support paying uneducated, insolvent teenagers (or anyone else, for that matter) to have babies on the public dime.
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-07 18:23:11
zydeco quick clip watch how he plays the accordion…wild
The common explanation for the term Zydeco is that it comes from the Creole saying “Les haricots sont pas salés” meaning “The beans aren’t salty
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-07 18:40:01
The English skills of “them” are at least as comprehensible are yours are, dj. And the majority of welfare recipients are white.
But don’t let facts get in the way of your presuppositions. Or can’t you read, either?
Comment by Pete
2012-08-07 19:03:45
“So you voted for Reagan but won’t vote for Romney - the guy who in 2002 described himself as a progressive - because he’s too radical. ”
Reagan and Romney may be similar philosophically. I think the discussion is now less about the candidate and more about what fringe of the party has the power to yank the candidate/president into both rhetoric and action.
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-07 19:51:15
Most of them cant speak English or do simple math either.. I know the public school should be doing its job…but with all the stupid political correctness what other choice do you propose?
Nobody pays me to post here. It is one of a number of volunteer activities I undertake due to a favorable combination of what interests me and what I believe is of use to others.
If it seems like I attack Republicans too much, I apologize; this mainly reflects that several rabidly partisan Republicans who take up lots of HBB bandwidth are complete morons.
There is a difference between not listening (the Joshua Tree Extension) and silencing someone. Smithers is perfectly free to continue posting his rants, just as others are free to not listen to him.
I know, there is no point. Just like a fundy who believes that the Earth is 6000 years old or a member of the Flat Earth Society, no amount of facts or logic will persuade him.
I will admit that my exodus from the former party of Eisenhower and Lincoln took some time, as the disappointments slowly set in. The biggest of them all were the swelling deficits, and the VP, after all the promises made to be frugal and pay off the debt, told us that “deficits don’t matter”. Then came the endless wars, and the offshoring.
And what finally drove me away was the ever increasing vileness of the candidates. The current batch took this to new heights, as the best they could come up with was a Gordon Gekko clone.
HBB seemed a little more conservative a few years ago.
But maybe I just got older. Damn kids get offa my lawn.
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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-07 10:12:54
See what happens when you become a homeowner?
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-07 10:23:38
I’m not a home owner until I have the keys in my pocket.
This week we did indeed lose one source of DP assistance (Federal program/grant called WISH),as their funds ran dry LAST WEEK. It was 15K of free money, and it’s not breaking the deal, but oh well.
Actually, one of the reasons why I did decide to go ahead and buy is because for us, buying in pricey SF requires getting DP assistance, and with the condition of gov’t coffers, it is a real possibility that those funds will not exist in the future.
And not really under any illusion that I will actually be a home owner anytime soon. I am renting money from the bank, a situation that will provide us with a little more control and stability than renting shelter from a landlord.
But the amortization schedule calculators are a source of fun for me,and I have no intention of taking 30 years to pay.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-07 11:54:03
I think 30 years to pay is a good thing. What will the dollar be worth 30 years from now? If inflation exceeds the interest rate your real debt is being reduced without any effort by you. I think that is a safe bet over the next thirty years given the printing of money that has already occurred and the fact that we probably will not be the reserve currency much longer.
Comment by polly
2012-08-07 13:08:12
It doesn’t make any difference that your “real debt” is being reduced when you have to pay it in nominal dollars and your income is stagnant.
Comment by oxide
2012-08-07 15:28:11
But it does matter if the alternative — rent — continues to increase while the PITI is stagnant.
Smithers’ posts are often disdainful and of low information content.
That’s what bothers me too. You can disagree with someone without being disagreeable.
I like to think of how Olympiagal would do it. She’d say “Now look, smartypants,” then go off on one of her delightful romps through the English language.
I find Smithers to be willing to engage rather than disdainful. Perhaps you can give some examples?
dis·dain/disˈdān/
Noun:
The feeling that someone or something is unworthy of one’s consideration or respect; contempt.
Verb:
Consider to be unworthy of one’s consideration.
Synonyms:
noun. contempt - scorn - disregard
verb. despise - scorn - contemn - slight - misprize - disregard
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Comment by ahansen
2012-08-07 15:23:17
CT–
Without commenting on the accuracy or veracity of his posts, here are a few examples of Smithers’ “disain” from just yesterday alone…
-You do realize
-Priceless.
-People like you
-found the next messiah…Awesome!!
-And you people wonder why nobody takes Ron Paul seriously.
-Didn’t you get the memo
-Day after day, people here moan and whine
-You need to get out a little more
-Shocker!!
-Nice try.
-You’re not very sharp.
-That’s pure BS.
-By your ridiculous comment
-you’re beyond help
-BRILLIANT!!
-Typical leftist thinking
-yeah that’s the ticket.
-You know so little
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2012-08-07 18:09:53
“I find Smithers to be willing to engage rather than disdainful. Perhaps you can give some examples?”
Wow. Your reading comprehension is nonexistent.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-07 18:43:01
“I find Smithers to be willing to engage rather than disdainful. Perhaps you can give some examples?”
Wow. Your reading comprehension is nonexistent.
It’s even more than reading comprehension imo. CharlieTango asking a question such as that, in the face of the reality of Smither’s disdainful posts (as shown by ahansen’s many examples) is a classic example of someone’s dogmatic politics overly clouding their reality.
I think I would recognize Smither’s disdain for other posters and his worn talking points even if I were the chairman of the RNC or the NRA.
That “stupidity” could be better refuted with civility. You made several good points and provided some interesting information yesterday, yet it was lost in your heavy-handed responses.
Personally, I enjoy your posts, Smithers, and as noted above, think you add a needed counterpoint. But your stylistic blunders make me cringe for you sometimes. You can give us better than this, can’t you?
Do it for the children!
I propose that Mr. Smithers is a repressed or closeted gay man, a la ex Senator Larry Craig or any of the other far-right whackos who hang out in men’s bathrooms when they think no one is looking.
The poster in not just locked in the closet, he’s hogtied in a latex bodysuit with only a water bowl and kibbles to keep him company.
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-08-07 11:17:31
Maybe we should change his name to “The Gimp”……
Comment by MrBubble
2012-08-07 12:25:33
Every time I see “Mr. Smithers” I think of the Simpsons episode where Lisa sees Mr. Smithers’ computer boot up and a toweled Mr. Burns appears on screen saying,
“Smithers… you’re… quite good…at… turning…me…on.”
I just assumed that’s what he was going for.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-07 13:00:32
How else to explain his Simpson’s moniker?
Because like his namesake, he likes to lick boot?
Comment by Michael Viking
2012-08-07 13:04:49
“The poster in not just locked in the closet, he’s hogtied in a latex bodysuit with only a water bowl and kibbles to keep him company.” Great stuff AHansen. Very mature! You should run for political office! Lots of deep thought and analysis on your side. I bet you used your high-end, fancy liberal arts degree to come up with this zinger. Somehow you’re too sick and twisted in the head to realize the hypocritical hater you are, though. Where’s your tolerance and understanding for the other?
“Maybe we should change his name to “The Gimp”” Wonderfully funny! Look at all the tolerance it shows, too! How ironic to find the left making fun of somebody; calling somebody names. I thought only people on the right were name calling haterz?
“I propose that Mr. Smithers is a repressed or closeted gay man, a la ex Senator Larry Craig or any of the other far-right whackos who hang out in men’s bathrooms when they think no one is looking.” What are you I wonder? A leftist, name-calling, hypocritical wacko too blind to see that his pot is as black as his kettle?
I propose that you’re sick, hypocritical leftists - opened up to diversity as long as it’s diversity as you see fit. Decrying the right as name-calling haters, while handing out invective yourselves and thinking nothing of it. Loving everything you agree with, hating everything else. Gay marriage? Awesome, great! Look at how tolerant we are to others’ beliefs. Polygamy? Why absolutely not! The horror! Disgustipatin’! Inbred neanderthals. Abortion? All for it. Kill ‘em all, it’s just tissue. Keep your hands off of my body. Capital punishment? Oh no. No way. That’s cruel and unusual. We must not harm a soul. Only right wing wackos could think of a thing like that. This is the modern, enlightened age - we can’t kill people.
No worries, I know that in your twisted mind, twisted ideas seem straight, and straight ideas seem twisted. You’re unreachable. It’s all good.
Comment by MrBubble
2012-08-07 13:31:40
Not only was that authentic frontier gibberish, but Gabby Johnson is right!
Reverend!!!
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-07 13:35:55
I can see and live with my inconsistent beliefs, as must any thinking person.
Yes, I am pro-animal rights and I love a good hamburger.
I am pro-choice and against the death penalty.
I hate car culture and what the internal combustion engine has done to the environment, but we own 2 cars and drive daily.
Etc., etc.
I DO have a problem with people who believe that all their beliefs and actions are compatible and cannot understand that most of life is lived in the gray areas.
I still don’t know if there’s any truth to the urban legend that conservative interns are paid to troll the internet with talking points and revisionist history. (couldn’t find anything on snopes.) If so, they got the idea from George Orwell.
It’s true. I’m paid by the Koch brothers and I work out of Area 51 in between shifts for my other job, painting helicopters black for the forthcoming UN invasion. Ron Paul is the only man who can stop it.
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Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 07:20:20
Given the continuous and well-documented astroturfing of the Koch bros, I would be extremely surprised if they didn’t pay people to troll.
But I don’t think they’d pay Smithers, because his style doesn’t win any converts. He’s just a repeater of talking points he’s read elsewhere.
It would be far more effective to pay someone who presents themselves as apolitical and a ‘common sense’ type, who never overtly cheers one side, but subtly sways everything in that direction. In other words, they’re supposedly apolitical and ‘above it all’, but every political point they make favors one side. That’s how a pro astroturfs.
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-07 07:53:32
the revelation of alien colonization of December 22, 2012
Comment by oxide
2012-08-07 07:58:45
someone who presents themselves as apolitical and a ‘common sense’ type, who never overtly cheers one side, but subtly sways everything in that direction.
Anyone that smart and nuanced is not going to waste his time making peanut pay to extract a few votes from little ol’ HBB. Such folks are the ones at Golden Sacks making a killing off of OPM.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 08:44:09
Anyone that smart and nuanced is not going to waste his time making peanut pay
Oh, I’d say any half-decent used car salesman could master it.
It’s not hard, you just always support one side of any argument, but never openly cheer a political party, and every once in a while establish your bona fides by saying both parties are the same, and such.
They are revealed by the consistency of their support for one side only, despite their claims of there being ‘no difference’ between the two parties.
And who says it’s peanut pay? The Oligarchs aren’t short of money, that’s for sure.
Comment by Harry Connick Jr Community College Graduate
2012-08-07 07:10:36
Don’t know about conservatives paying interns to troll the internet, but I know for a fact Obama camp had started a truth squad. Basically paid interns to troll the internet, talk radios, etc. Many of you prolly think Obama is wise to have done so. Not just the other camp, right?
Maybe Eddie actually works for Obama, and the conservative blather is just an act to hide his real identity?
Comment by michael
2012-08-07 08:00:54
i think all of our extremely partisan posters are the same person…ala john locke and demosthenes in “Ender’s Game”.
Comment by polly
2012-08-07 11:43:51
The “Obama camp” can’t even get its act together enough to ask for volunteers to do voter registration in VA more than three days before the weekend they want the help. I told them they needed to give a few weeks notice and then do a follow up the week before and then a day or two before, but no change so far. Seriously, this is not the hallmark of a good ground game.
Comment by michael
2012-08-07 12:12:46
the biggest sign to me that obama has no clue when it comes to the economy is that he still wants to be president.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-08-07 12:16:17
the biggest sign to me that obama has no clue when it comes to the economy is that he still wants to be president.”
I always thought he should have demanded a recount the day he was eleted.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-07 12:16:46
The “Obama camp” can’t even get its act together enough to ask for volunteers to do voter registration in VA more than three days before the weekend they want the help. I told them they needed to give a few weeks notice and then do a follow up the week before and then a day or two before, but no change so far. Seriously, this is not the hallmark of a good ground game.
Agreed. And it was last Friday when I was talking to a long-time acquaintance who tried to donate money to the Obama campaign. He couldn’t get the website to cooperate and even saved screenshots showing the problem.
He reported the problem to the Obama campaign people, and they didn’t seem to have the slightest interest in resolving the problem.
You don’t have to pay a guy like that. He sits at his boring job all day, listening to angry radio, then gets on the internet when he feels sad about his insignificance. He just wants a little attention is all.
It worked miserably, as indicated by the table nearby, which shows increases in government spending from 2007 to 2009 and subsequent changes in GDP growth rates.
The four nations—Estonia, Ireland, the Slovak Republic and Finland—with the biggest stimulus programs had the steepest declines in growth. The United States was no different, with greater spending (up 7.3%) followed by far lower growth rates (down 8.4%).
Estonia and Latvia: Europe’s champions of austerity
Josephine Moulds
guardian.co.uk, Fri 8 Jun 2012 14.12 BST
They are hailed as the new poster children for austerity. In Estonia, civil servants took a 10% pay cut and ministers saw 20% shaved from their salaries. The government raised the pension age, cut job protection and made it harder to claim health benefits. Latvia’s government sacked 30% of public sector staff and slashed salaries by 40%. Both introduced new taxes and raised existing ones. http://m.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/08/estonia-latvia-eurozone-champions-austerity?cat=world&type=article
I think the problem is that both ideas were mis-applied. Sure, there’s some point where raising taxes decreases revenue, and there’s a curve that point lies on. If you get the shape of the curve wrong, you’re gonna have problems.
Same deal with Keynsianism. You’re supposed to borrow to get you through bad times, and pay down the debt and save during good times. Our leaders just kept right on borrowing through the good times, leaving us where we are now.
You should. Once you do, you see that Laffer’s assertions don’t hold up. First of all, he uses percent of GDP of government spending as a stand in for ’stimulus’. So as a country’s GDP goes down in a bust, then it’s spending as percent of GDP will go up, even if it spends no more actual dollars than it did before the bust.
Second, if his assertion that such ’stimulus’ is detrimental to recovery is correct, then by his logic lack of government stimulus should be beneficial. But let’s look at those countries with little or no increase in gov spending as percent of GDP:
Korea’s gov spending is up only 1.1%. Their change in real GDP growth’? DOWN 7.7%.
Switzerland is actually spending less- they’re down .2% How is their GDP change? DOWN 7.1%
Israel has also tightened up, they’re spending is down .9% How is their economy booming from this? It’s DOWN 6.2%
Hungary has only increased spending .7% Their reward? DOWN 9.9%
Yep Art Laffer proved how great austerity works with that chart! Not.
People with an agenda can make #’s say anything. The response to that article.
It’s important to remember what the denominator is doing.
Now, there are multiple problems with this starting with the following: Laffer’s description of the first number is ambiguous to the point of incomprehension. Does Laffer mean to say that he is subtracting the 2007 ratio of government spending to GDP in each country from the same ratio in 2009? Or, does he mean that he is subtracting total government spending in each country in 2007 from total government spending in 2009, and expressing that difference as a percentage of GDP in that country in 2007. Which calculation he is performing makes a big difference. Suppose Estonia — Laffer’s poster child for Keynesian stimulus — kept spending unchanged between 2007 and 2009, but GDP contracted by one-third. If Laffer is calculating his first number by the first method, he comes up with an increase in government spending as a percentage of GDP of 33%, even though government spending did not change. That is just perverse. So how did Laffer perform his calculation? He doesn’t say. All he does is cite the IMF as the source for his table. Thanks a lot, Art; that was really helpful, but unfortunately, not helpful enough to figure out what you are talking about.
Everyone should remember that this passes for journalism and commentary now. Seriously how can someone with a brain make this kind of mistake. The answer is that this was not a mistake. It is an attempt to persuade the lazy and the incompetent into viewing stimulus as bad.
Note you can make an arguement about this but his arguement is a lie.
Polly was correct when she said not long ago their side was holding up Ireland and Estonia as examples of countries that were eschewing Keynesian economics.
This is the kind of thing that Paul Krugman does a very good job of refuting. He said on his blog that he is on vacation and will have limited or no access to the internet, so I expect people who want to do this sort of revisioninst economics to be out in force for the rest of August.
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Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-07 14:51:15
Paul Krugman? The guy who predicted a recession for 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, while GDP growth was in the 3-4% range the every year.
Clearly he works for the Republicans. The Democrats are often annoying but seldom stupid.
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Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-07 06:51:43
LOL. You’re one of these “both parties suck” types who mysteriously supports all things Democrats and opposes all things Republican. In other words a Ron Paul supporter. And you wonder why nobody takes your guy seriously.
Who do you support? Is it Romney? Cuz if so you’ve got an election coming up and you are still going on about Ron Paul? Why is that?
Anyway, Romney doesn’t need the Paul voters. He’s poised to smash the Democrats in November, huh? So feel free to alienate voters all the way to November. That’s a winning strategy.
Comment by palmetto
2012-08-07 07:46:57
“So feel free to alienate voters all the way to November. That’s a winning strategy.”
In my case, mission accomplished. The neos (neocon, neolibs) have done a fine job of hijacking both parties.
Looking forward to crushing Romney’s hopes and dreams this November.
Now, if only I could find a way to wipe that smirk off Kristol’s face.
Comment by palmetto
2012-08-07 07:48:19
“The Democrats are often annoying but seldom stupid.”
No, just evil. That’s why the Dems are the evil party and the Pubs the stupid party.
Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-08-07 08:28:26
Evil and stupid usually travel together.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 08:46:34
Evil and stupid usually travel together
Stupidity is the servant of evil.
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-07 09:37:33
“Looking forward to crushing Romney’s hopes and dreams this November.”
I dunno about the rest of you, but I’m trying really hard to care about the Olympics. And I just can’t.
Oh, I do have one exception, and that would be Jerome Singleton (Go Blue!) in the Paralympics. I hope he kicks some major butt and brings home the gold!
I haven’t seen too much ab covering in the boxing ring. Or in the swimming pool. And don’t get me started on those swimmer guys’ bodies (Slim swoons). Just don’t.
And until this year, bikinis for women’s beach volley ball were required.
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Comment by Harry Connick Jr Community College Graduate
2012-08-07 08:11:47
Who watches swimming in Olympics? Seriously.
It’s all Track and Field for me.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 08:58:05
It’s all Track and Field for me.
I like beach volleyball the best, but it’s all pretty interesting.
Overall, I’m enjoying these Olympics about as much as any, maybe a little more. They’ll never be as exciting as they were in my youth, when we were more starved for entertainment, in the pre-cable, pre-internet, olden days of middle earth.
I also like that they’re not being held by an authoritarian regime.
Comment by polly
2012-08-07 10:02:09
Nothing will ever compare to that next to last hockey game in 1980.
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-08-07 10:17:37
What are these “Olympics” of which you speak?
Living in Flyover, and watching 30 years of crappy pro football and baseball has a tendancy to kill your interest in “sports”.
Besides, to borrow a line of thinking from NASCAR legend Curtis Turner, some things are like maturbation…….more fun to participate in, than to watch.
Check out the recent pictures of male cyclist’s quads. Quadzilla scary.
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Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-07 10:51:41
Back when I was biking around the country, I had legs sorta like that too.
Not so much now, although they’re still pretty strong. It’s the knees that are the weak point. I really have to baby my knees and have had to do so since my mid-30s.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-08-07 11:05:57
Aye, the knees! So true. I seem to be largely cured of knee issues while riding but need simultaneous weight training (leg extensions, etc) to keep things strong.
We took a one hour detour to find a knee brace for my wife during the recent STP ride. Her knee had given her some trouble in the past but training rides of 50+ miles had seemingly solved it. Turns out she hadn’t been using her big chain ring as much as suspected during training and 20 miles into a 204 mile ride, after using the larger ring a little more extensively, her knee said I don’t think so. Coincidentally, we happened upon a guy at the next rest stop who was raving about his knee band.
Next year her “trainer” will be much more observant. On the other hand, those knee bands are miracle workers.
Comment by MrBubble
2012-08-07 12:35:33
“Check out the recent pictures of male cyclist’s quads. Quadzilla scary.”
Yeah, but I’d still rather be 6′0″ 230 lbs. than 6′3″ 153 lbs., especially with those sideburns!
OK, 6′0″ 219 lbs. would be far better. That damned power/weight ratio kills this super-Clydesdale on the hills ever time.
204 miles?? We’ll see whether I can make a mere 60 miler on Friday. Hunting season opens the next day, so I’ll be taking it slowly!
Ugh! That is also why I don’t watch. Just show us the blasted events, and spare us the sob stories, like that his grannie died a week before the games, etc.
Ditto… I’d rather they fill the time by showing the performances from more athletes from other countries. Like, show us the 20th ranked gymnasts for comparison. For some reason they did this with diving but few other sports.
NBC will not stream the Olympic games to foreign countries and the TV coverage is all Brazil here so I’m watching on the internet on one of those gray area sites where you can watch almost all the events if you want. (Not in great quality though) I’m getting a lot of BBC and Canadian TV broadcasts so the perspective is different. Every country’s broadcast is centered on their own country’s athletes.
And not a word here about Sunday’s “Curiosity” triumph. With JPL defunded to the point of near-extinction by the Obama administration, it’s good to know that the Americans can still stick a landing.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-07 13:58:12
And not a word here about Sunday’s “Curiosity” triumph. With JPL defunded to the point of near-extinction by the Obama administration, it’s good to know that the Americans can still stick a landing.
If I wasn’t such an early to bed gal, I would have gone to the Curiosity landing party down at the SkyBar. Yes, that’s right. An astronomy-themed bar in Tucson, Arizona.
They do it with diving because the actual event only takes 2.5 seconds. Also because the “groups” are larger so there are 20 people all grouped together, not just 8.
OWS Olympics style. Don’t show and celebrate the top 1%, show the bottom 10%. Actually better yet let’s not even keep score anymore. All athletes get a gold medal for showing up.
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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-07 14:44:45
OWS Olympics style…..All athletes get a gold medal for showing up.
That would not be fair to athlete top producers. A medal awards system based on the total dollars of corporate sponsorship per athlete might work though.
Any tie-breaker would be based on how well each athlete is able to shelter his corporate sponsorship income from taxes in the country he is proud to represent.
Extra points would be awarded when the athlete evades his country’s taxes by opening offshore bank accounts in the countries he is competing against.
I did the Seattle-to-Portland bike ride 3 weeks ago. There are often several paraplegic riders completing the ride and they are amazing to watch. No matter the incline or decline they just keep pumping…for 204 miles.
Ah, I didn’t get the reference to STP above. How did the ride go? All in one day, double century style, or did you rest?
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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-08-07 13:03:40
Went well, but much slower after the injury so our finishing times suffered, but we didn’t do it to race. Some people do it in one day, but I’ve only done it in two. There is a camping site midway for the 2-day riders.
Comment by MrBubble
2012-08-07 13:11:51
Sorry to hear about the injury. I’ve been icing my knees and spinning a lot more as I get older.
Two days sounds better than one, but I dunno if I’d want to sleep on the ground after 100 miles (doing my first century in October). Then again, the wife just chose the ultra firm mattress and it sure feels like the ground!
Nagelbett, anyone?
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-08-07 14:09:20
Opposite for us. We both had the REI 3.5″ air mattress. When I tried it at the store I was a bit surprised how good it felt. And after a full night sleeping on it, I was shocked to admit that it felt similar in comfort to our foam mattress at home. Slept very well.
I suspect the bike fit I got a month beforehand played a strong role as well. Very little upper body soreness this time around.
Yesterday, one thread was about whether people are paying “triple” the cost of the house when they use a mortgage, even 40 years. I ran some amort numbers on a $400K house and the answer is: only if the interest rates are 1970’s high.
Ben answered, legitimately, that those high interest rates meant that actual prices are much lower, around $40K. Ben, I wasn’t questioning the pricing. I was questioning the old saw that someone pays “triple” the house price. I’m familiar with the saying; my parents told it to me when I was a young pup in the 70’s. I ran a couple more amort numbers on one of Ben’s $40K houses.
Scenario 1, 2012: $40,000K price, $0 down, 40-year mortgage at 4.5%:
Principle $40,000, Interest $26,370 You pay 1.66x the actual price of the house.
Scenario 2, 1978: $40,000 price, $8000 down, 30 year mortgage at 12.5%:
Principle $32000, Interest $90,948 You pay 3.07x the actual price of the house.
The 70’s wisdom was true, but only in the 70’s.
Ben’s other point is that a 1970’s buyer could refi the low price to a low interest rate, or pre-pay on that low principle, and woo hoo bonanza pay that sucker off. I don’t disagree. It’s very true, and those who did that did made out very well. Well yes, middle class peaked about 1970. Everyone made out well if they were frugal, and even more so if Mom could bring in a little money when the kids were in school.
But what about present day? “When” interest rates climb back up, house prices will drop so that PITI remains nearly the same. Also very true. Then those with cash (HBB) can snap things up either cash buy or massive down and prepay. But the question is, “when” do you expect those interest rates to go up? And if they do, how far and how fast? It’s not just housing. Businesses and government have calibrated their balance sheets to the low rates. So I expect rates to be very sticky on the way up — imagine the kicking and screaming on CNBC. I expect house prices to be even stickier on the way down. My decision was that it wasn’t worth paying rent during the wait.
The “old saw” was that you would pay double, not triple, IIRC. Normal interest rates, not 70s.
It’s a very good question; when will interest rates go up. Very good question.
Interest rates are low because we are in deflation. How long will that last? Biggest expansion of credit in history seems to be taking a while to correct.
The simple spreadsheet approach does not take into account the changing value of the money. Over the last 40 years, paying double, but decades later, was a great deal (if you were earning a wage). Going forward, maybe not so.
I bumped up to a late 80’s house: (I’m just guessing on the numbers):
$150K house, $30K down (20%), 7.75% interest, 30-year.
Principle $120,000 Interest $189,490. You pay 2.06x the price of the house <– there it is, double.
Blue, it’s very hard to base comparison on inflation, deflation, changing value of money etc. I believe that what we’re seeing is a fundamental shift in the standard of living. Corporations have figured out that they can raise prices to what the market will bear on needs. The middle class is forced to double up in rentals, move in with mom and dad, take a second job, raid their Sbux/mallrat funds, raid their savings and retirement, all to spend a higher % of our dwindling salaries on needs like housing and health insurance. Credit bubbles can’t cover it any more. No FB dollar will be allowed to escape.
Corporations have figured out that they can raise prices to what the market will bear on needs.
I once thought it would only apply to needs, but certain wants are astoundingly priced as well. For my wants, it’s outdoor equipment. Off-road shoes used to be in the $65-95 range (pre-2007). Now most are double that.
This season I was looking for a new snowboarding jacket to replace my 10 year old version. I ended up buying a $250 jacket for $75 on clearance after the season. But about had a heart attack when I saw some ski jackets for $1200. Seriously, I get that people once climbed mountains in heavy wool overcoats. But how much further can the technology go?
All, of course, are “Imported.” If they weren’t, does that mean I’d have to spend $1500 for that jacket? Ridiculous.
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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-07 12:57:00
Off-road shoes used to be in the $65-95 range (pre-2007). Now most are double that.
And now, they’re also made in China.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-08-07 12:59:46
Agreed. That’s what I meant by “imported.” We’ve been sold that in order to have low prices, we need to buy imported goods. Sorry, $125 hiking shoes and $75 shirts are not what I call low prices.
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-07 13:04:57
Agreed. That’s what I meant by “imported.” We’ve been sold that in order to have low prices, we need to buy imported goods. Sorry, $125 hiking shoes and $75 shirts are not what I call low prices.
I agree. And I’ve had quite the discussion with a local shoe store owner about the prevalence of imported shoes in her store. Heck, with the prices she charges, she’s making some pretty sweet bank.
Comment by polly
2012-08-07 13:27:28
A lot of the mark up may be happening before she gets the stuff in her store, especially if she is carrying brand names.
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2012-08-07 19:41:57
Chinese products of inferior quality, at American prices. These are hellish times.
Spain’s king holds crisis talks with union leaders
The Associated Press
MADRID —
King Juan Carlos is to meet with the leaders of Spain’s two main labor unions to discuss the economic crisis battering the country.
General Workers Union leader Candido Mendez said Tuesday the two union bosses intended to convey to the monarch “their enormous concern” for the dire situation facing Spain.
Recession-wracked Spain is fighting to avoid seeking a financial bailout but its problems are mounting daily. Debt is rising and unemployment is near 25 percent.
Mendez told Spanish National Radio that the government’s austerity measures and reforms were making things worse. The unions are calling for a referendum on the government’s policies.
King Juan Carlos is Spain’s head of state and, although he regularly holds talks with the government, he has no direct role in the running of the country.
Translation: Your Highness, we’re really PO-ed about what’s happening in this country. And if the gobierno thinks that more austerity is the answer, well, we’re taking to to the streets in larger numbers than we have so far.
Slim adds: You seriously do not want to get Spaniards any more annoyed than they are now. Because when they get mad, they get MAD!
Making things worse for them or the country? I do not know why it is so hard for people to understand that living within your means does mean you have to cut your standard of living if you have been spending more than you are earning. We still have to cut our standard of living, as a country, by 7.6% since that is our deficit per year as a percentage of total GDP.. Since we are now growing at 1.5 % that is going to hurt.
There’s a difference between micro- and macro-economics. If you don’t know this, you shouldn’t post about economics. If you do know this, then you should know better than to give out ‘common sense kitchen table cut our spending cause pa got laid off’ budget BS.
There is a difference but in the end you cannot spend 40% more than you take in either at the micro or macro level and if you do not understand that, while I guess you are are in Obama’s cabinet.
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Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 11:35:42
But the idea that a country in a depression should immediately drop its spending to the same percent of GDP as it was before the depression is ridiculous, no? That’s how macro differs from micro.
Comment by polly
2012-08-07 11:56:53
Doesn’t work that well on the micro level either. When I got laid off, by income went down a lot. I stayed in my apartment and had to pay more for health insurance. Yeah, I cut back on food and dry cleaning and gifts. And my commuting costs went down, but I was paying the same for some stuff and more for others. And I really spent a lot more when I had to start paying for the tuition bills that my employer had covered before. But staying in the area where I had contacts, keeping the insurance and taking more classes meant I got another job.
Plus that whole thing where since I am a person, not an entire economy, my cutting back on discretionary spending didn’t lower my income.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-07 12:04:00
Did I ever say immediately? But what Obama should have done at the beginning of his term is to pass, and he had the Congress, something like Simpson/Bowles to ensure that investors would see the country moving towards a balanced budget. The recession officially ended in the Summer of 2009, cuts could have lead to faster growth. He has not even committed to go back to the same GDP numbers hence the lack of confidence in him by the people that need to invest.
These sophisticated investors see that the kitchen table analogy does apply in the long term. We got away from the basics, saving is important, consumption should not be paid for with debt and hard work is needed. Applies at the kitchen table and at the government level.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-08-07 12:14:12
to ensure that investors would see the country moving towards a balanced budget
Is that what investors want? Seems to me the markets rally on stimulus, not the lack of it.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 12:15:12
since I am a person, not an entire economy, my cutting back on discretionary spending didn’t lower my income.
Exactly. Which is an even more important difference between micro- and macroeconomics.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 12:24:38
How exactly does Obama pass Simpson Bowles? How does he get major defense cuts (closing 1/3 of overseas bases), a 15 cent a gallon gas tax, the end of the MID, the end of the tax deduction on health care coverage, and the reduction of Social Security benefits, through Congress? Could anyone?
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-07 12:28:46
Polly, what you are saying is you still had to prioritize your spending and pure consumption is what you cut out. Obama at the beginning of his term said he was going to cut the budget deficit by half in his first term. He was going to cut government programs that did not work so he could “invest” in programs that did work. Cutting dry cleaning to invest in an education was wise.
Yes cutting government at the macro level is more challenging because you do cut revenue. Layoff the defense worker and if he is at the 30% tax level your cut is only 70% what you thought. However, once a country reaches a certain debt level, cuts have to be made even when it is not the best time to cut. Obama has maxed out the credit card, austerity is no longer a choice between policies it is a necessity. Greece and Spain waited too long to make their cuts and now are forced to cut at a difficult time. Printing money our present policy steals from the middle class.
The argument that the budget will balance without action also leads to theft from the middle class. It means people with incomes from around $50,000 up will pay the AMT penalty since it was not adjusted for inflation. It is just a backdoor tax rise on the middle class which we were promised would not happen under Obama.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-07 12:33:15
Sleepless, I am not talking about stock market investors. I am talking about people that invest in productive equipment. There has never been more money on the sidelines then now. Government spending has not encouraged investment like Keynes would say would occur, it has discouraged investment.
Comment by albuquerquedan
2012-08-07 13:12:30
Alpha. Reagan never had his party in control of the house and only had the Senate for a few years. Yet he passed most of his program. He had to compromise and accept more domestic spending and a greater deficit than he wanted but for the tax cuts and the build up of the military he did it.
Obama had a democratic house by a wide margin and sixty democrats in the senate. He also would have had support of many republicans since simpson/bowles had broad bi-partisan support. Instead, he did pass his program it was the stimulus and Obama care. The latter very unpopular.
Thus he should have easily passed simpson/bowles if he wanted to pass smaller government. However, he does not believe in smaller government. He thought that larger government was going to lead to better recovery than Reagan’s recovery. However, all he proved is that Reagan was right about less government interference with the economy.
Comment by polly
2012-08-07 13:35:33
“Polly, what you are saying is you still had to prioritize your spending and pure consumption is what you cut out.”
To repeat. I am not an economy. When I cut back on gifts to my family and ate cheaper food, I did not put anyone out of work. My influence was too small. But when the government pulls back spending when the private sector is in a recession, the velocity of money goes way down.
And besides, my over all spending even on consumption probably went up. I didn’t spend that much on discretionary to start with and the extra heat (since I was home during the day) and the COBRA insurance payments were a lot.
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-07 14:59:41
“To repeat. I am not an economy. When I cut back on gifts to my family and ate cheaper food, I did not put anyone out of work. My influence was too small”
Everything in economics works at the margin. There is a marginal increase or decrease in revenue that causes an action to occur. You may not have been the marginal lost sale that put someone out of work. But maybe the next lost order was. And without your lost order, that lost order wouldn’t have led to the action.
So yes, every action whether you cutting back $1 in spending or $100,000,000 in spending leads to a counter action somewhere down the chain.
To paraphrase the Army, you are an economy of one. Whether your like it or not.
Comment by Al
2012-08-07 20:13:33
The typical misrepresentation of Keynes is that government could prevent recessions. Not true; the goal was to lessen the impact. Government doesn’t have to spending power. While government is large enough to have a greater impact than any other single entity, many individuals/businesses making the same decision can produce more significant results.
Apparently, based on what we’re seeing in Greece and Spain, austerity doesn’t work all that well either. However, since it does tend to concentrate the wealth in the hands of a few (who snap it up at bargain prices) then it’s all good,
Comment by Harry Connick Jr Community College Graduate
2012-08-07 07:32:04
Austerity doesn’t work in short term. Actually it creates more pain in the short run. In the long run, it gives a hope for an organic, bs free economy.
Stimulus doesn’t work in the long run. You can stimulus for a year or two, but you will have to pay one day. We are living this nightmare right now.
You can stimulus for a year or two, but you will have to pay one day.
Yeah, that’s how it works. You stimulate when times are bad, and pay it back when times are good. It balances out the economy, prevents major booms and busts, and it worked quite well for half a century.
But if you appoint an Ayn Rand worshiping twit to be Fed chairman, and elect a bunch of ‘give the surplus to the 1%ers as a tax break’ conservatives (ha ha), then it doesn’t work and you get what we have today.
Probably the best argument against Keynesian theory is that the stupidity and greed of today’s right precludes any pay-down of debt and slowing of the economy when times are booming. It’s too easy to demagogue against, and then give the money to their real masters, the 1%. (Who of course benefit greatly from boom/bust economies, unlike the middle class.)
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Comment by Harry Connick Jr Community College Graduate
2012-08-07 09:50:37
I think it’s impossible to debate with you because you believe the government has unalienable rights to anyone’s income as it sees fit. Many of us don’t believe in this. Since we disagree on such a fundamental point, any discussion downward is just futile.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 10:24:08
The government has the right to tax people, it’s in the Constitution.
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-08-07 10:25:17
You are right.
When someone asserts that the government has no right to collect taxes/payments for services provided, we don’t have anything to talk about.
And don’t start with “government used to run on tariffs” blather. We are a “free market” world, remember? government has no right to impose tariff on all of those Chinese and Mexican factory workers.
Now if you want to say government wastes a lot of the tax revenue they generate, THEN we can agree to disagree/argue/discuss the tradeoffs.
Comment by Harry Connick Jr Community College Graduate
2012-08-07 11:01:39
Again twisting the words, aren’t we?
I said “as it sees fit.” Nowhere I made the claim that people should not pay for the services the government provides. Just because a person makes more money than the other guy, he doesn’t necessarily use more of the courts/police/roads/firemen/military/air/water. That’s all.
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-07 11:09:03
How to debate leftist style
Step 1: When someone says he wants less govt, interpret this to mean he wants NO government
Step 2: When someone says he wants less taxation, interpret this to mean he wants NO taxation.
Step 3: When someone says he wants less money spent on govt run education, interpret this to mean he wants to burn books.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 11:10:45
Nowhere I made the claim that people should not pay for the services the government provides.
Well, then who determines what they pay?
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 11:39:21
Smithers giving a tutorial on straw men. Classic.
Comment by measton
2012-08-07 11:48:54
How much less should the elite pay. I mean Mitt already pays an effective tax rate that is likely well under 10%. He pays 14% on reported income, but with all those off shore entities and games my guess is he is well under 14%.
Comment by polly
2012-08-07 12:04:42
“necessarily use more of the courts/police/roads/firemen/military/air/water”
Garbage. How much would it cost to get fire insurance on Mitt Romney’s house with the car elevator if there was no public fire deparment? How much would it cost to get fire insurance on my 1000 square foot apartment in a building with sprinklers if there was no public fire deparment?
Same thing with police protection? How much to protect me with ordinary middle class parents who couldn’t come up with a few $100K if I was kidnapped for ransom? How much for a man who is worth over $200 million?
I get some value out of living in a society where people are educated because when I interact with merchants and service providers, they can do what is asked of them. He gets the benefit of exploiting the public education of all of his employees.
Just because he doesn’t use the actual service more often, doesn’t mean he isn’t get a heck of a lot more value out of it being there.
Comment by Harry Connick Jr Community College Graduate
2012-08-07 12:08:17
How much less should the elite pay. I mean Mitt already pays an effective tax rate that is likely well under 10%. He pays 14% on reported income, but with all those off shore entities and games my guess is he is well under 14%.
I have a solution. If Mitt pays less than 14%, why not lower everybody’s income taxes to 10% flat? That way Mitt will still pay higher rate than most of us.
Comment by Al
2012-08-07 12:39:49
Regardless of what size of government any individual sees as right, Keynsian theory is the way to go. It’s about timing instead of amount of spending. Given the uncertainties of receipts and expenditures (budgets are educated guesses at best), I think the best approach is to aim low with the anticipation of small surpluses most years. When the inevitable dowturn comes there will be reserves that could be used to maintain spending.
This could be written into law, where the budget must be based on actual receipts from 3 or so years earlier. During a dowturn spending could be maintained or even increased using the reserve. In a normal growing economy this should work well. If we get a Japan style couple of decades this plan would be useless.
Comment by measton
2012-08-07 13:16:34
Why not tax capital gains and dividends above 250k as income, and tax all CEO and Hedge Fund income benefits as wages instead of capital gains and dividends.
To lower eveyones tax rate to 10% All we have to do is get rid of the military so maybe you are on to something.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-07 14:34:21
This could be written into law, where the budget must be based on actual receipts from 3 or so years earlier. During a dowturn spending could be maintained or even increased using the reserve.
Good idea but it causes a philosophical dilemma for many on the right. Although they are self-professed “fiscal conservatives” many on the right would not accept a system that develops reserves because to them it would mean “taxes are too high” while at the same time the concept of a reserve is fiscally conservative.
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-07 15:01:31
“I have a solution. If Mitt pays less than 14%, why not lower everybody’s income taxes to 10% flat? That way Mitt will still pay higher rate than most of us.”
The left doesn’t care that Mitt pays more than “the working man”. The left just wants to punish Mitt for being rich. Doesn’t matter if his tax rate was 99% and everyone else’s was 1%. They’d still be bitching that it’s not 100%.
Comment by Al
2012-08-07 15:27:15
Part of the reason I like this plan in spite of the difficulties getting buy in, is because there really is no other viable option* in the long run. Educating people to see that eternal deficits will create the situation we are in right now is the first step. Seems like the main resistance to such a plan is based on people being used to getting more than they payed for.
* Okay, I have one other idea but it is inferior I believe. You aim taxes high and then after the dust has settled give rebates. If taxes did end up being low, then future rebates would not be given until the balance is settled.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-07 16:02:03
The left doesn’t care that Mitt pays more than “the working man”.
True.
The left just wants to punish Mitt for being rich.
Taxes are not “punishment”. Cities don’t levy taxes to “punish”. Taxes are to raise revenue. The “punish” line is poor propaganda IMO and the proof is in the fact that the “punish and hate the rich” lines are not working well in American public opinion.
A couple of many examples: CBS News/NY Times poll showed that 72% of people favored raising taxes on the wealthy in order to reduce the deficit.
19 Different Polls Show That Americans Support Tax Increases To Cut Deficit
Comment by GrizzlyBear
2012-08-07 21:13:57
“The left doesn’t care that Mitt pays more than “the working man”. The left just wants to punish Mitt for being rich. Doesn’t matter if his tax rate was 99% and everyone else’s was 1%. They’d still be bitching that it’s not 100%.”
Was it FDR’s stimulus that got us out of the Great Depression, or was it WWII?
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Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 11:01:09
Was it FDR’s stimulus that got us out of the Great Depression, or was it WWII?
Mostly WW2, since much of FDR’s early gains in the economy were lost when they tightened up too soon after the economy showed strength in the late 1930s, precipitating another major recession.
But spending on WW2 was stimulus too, and as I’ve noted before, is the only type of stimulus some will accept. Just as those who had earlier preached that FDR’s New Deal plans were too expensive, were wholeheartedly in support of the government spending far more when the Hun was at our door and our existence was at stake.
Bombs or bridges, it’s all stimulus. But bridges have more long-term benefit, and are more pleasant to use.
And it was the New Deal programs that made the returning soldiers into a strong middle class, rather than a bunch of angry young men with combat training and no jobs.
Comment by Harry Connick Jr Community College Graduate
2012-08-07 12:04:24
Neither. China wasn’t around. Japan and most of Europe were flattened by WWII leaving US the only exporter for some years to come.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-07 12:34:34
leaving US the only exporter for some years to come.
Why didn’t South America equally thrive and create a large middle class during this period?
And how many years was the rest of the world ‘bombed flat’? I’ve been to Europe, and there are quite a few buildings there older than the 1950s.
Printing money also concentrates wealth and destroys the middle class. There is no easy answer. But if a person is making 60,000 dollars and spending 100,000, it is not enough to cut back his spending to 80,000. She needs to cut back to 60,000 or obviously below to pay down her debt. Greece is still relying on the rest of EU for transfer payments. The Greeks are complaining that they have to live closer to their means they are not even being asked to live within their means.
The Founding fathers saw this problem, ironically, by studying the Greek and Roman democracies. Democracies fall as soon as the power to tax is used to transfer money from one individual to another instead of for the general welfare (bridges etc). I think without these transfer payments and the Fed creating the bubble economies, we would have adopted policies to prevent the deindustrialization of America and the swamping of the labor pool with illegal aliens. Strict compliance with the constitution would have prevented the mess we have.
Greece just went further down the road and it is not easy to create real jobs but they have to do it. Whether the democracy in Greece survives is an open question. Throughout the history of the world, democracies are rare. We lived in a rare era but unless people can accept reality that era is coming to an end.
Here is a highly edited video from Occupy Oakland of their attack on the Obama HQs, with accompanying taunt and dance party.
In addition to the attack on the headquarters, they also tore down fences at 19th and Telegraph, and attacked cars, smashing windshields.
Most of the people in the video are not Occupiers, but surrounding people attending an art street festival. The Occupiers are often dressed in black bloc attire on this video.
Attributing this action and the smashing of the windows to the subgroup calling itself, ”East Bay Uncontrollables”, Occupy Oakland said:
In another communication released by Occupy, they gave the following rationale, objecting to permit requirements related to the art festival, Art Murmur:
We refuse to surrender our space. We want to encourage the organic and rebellious elements of Art Murmur[the street art festival] to flourish. We are here to exercise a vision of a liberated city full of free art, free music, free culture, free expression, and free streets.
We are spontaneous, insurgent, uncontrollable.
These are our streets, and we are here to take them.
FTP! F### THE PERMITS! F### THE POLICE!
A storm is coming…
Occupy anarchists attack Obama HQs with kids inside
Occupy Oakland had another “FTP”(F### the Police March) last night in Oakland, California.
@shaianisreal
I was inside the Obama campaign office in Oakland earlier when protestors hit our windows with rocks & paint. Srsly?? There’s kids in here!
4 Aug 12
“Most of the people in the video are not Occupiers, but surrounding people attending an art street festival. The Occupiers are often dressed in black bloc attire on this video.
Attributing this action and the smashing of the windows to the subgroup calling itself, ”East Bay Uncontrollables”, Occupy Oakland said:”
Yet the article continues to say the actions are those of Occupy, even after making the above statements?
“Attributing this action and the smashing of the windows to the subgroup calling itself, ”East Bay Uncontrollables”, Occupy Oakland said:”
“In another communication released by Occupy, they gave the following rationale,”
If Occupy Oakland says Occupy Oakland didn`t do it, than I guess Occupy Oakland didn`t do it. So I guess the good protestors are with Occupy Oakland and the bad protestors are with the East Bay Uncontrollables. I`m glad we got that cleared up.
Yeah but when the Tea Party had their Rally on the National Mall there were no Rapes, Overdoses, people Sh*tting on Police Cars, and they didn’t leave and Garbage behind
those Occupiers need to Occupy a shower and get a job!
Quinn Administration Releases Study: Without Pension Reform, Illinois Will Spend More on Pensions than Education by 2016
Property Taxpayers Far More Protected With Comprehensive Pension Reform That Includes Responsibility for School Districts Than Without
CHICAGO – August 5, 2012. Governor Quinn released data today prepared by the Illinois Office of Management & Budget (OMB) that shows without comprehensive pension reform, Illinois will spend more on pensions than education by Fiscal Year 2016. The budget office performed the district-by-district analysis based on current projections to examine the long-term funding challenges of the state if comprehensive pension reform is not enacted. The analysis was released just days after Governor Quinn called a special session dedicated to pension reform on August 17.
Under current actuarial assumptions, required state pension contributions will rise to over $6 billion in the next few years if no comprehensive pension reform is enacted, which will continue to result in significant cuts to education. According to the analysis, continued cuts to education as a result of fast-rising pension costs will cost downstate and suburban school districts far more than assuming the responsibility to pay for their compensation decisions over time.
Every day that Illinois’ pension crisis goes unresolved, the unfunded pension liability grows by $12.6 million. Without comprehensive pension reform, funding for key services such as education will continue to be squeezed out. Governor Quinn has proposed a comprehensive pension reform plan that eliminates the unfunded liability over the next 30 years and includes a phased-in normal cost realignment that would ensure school districts have a stake in the contracts they negotiate.
Geithner, Treasury Drove Cutoff of NON-union Auto Workers’ Pensions
by MATTHEW BOYLE August 7, 2012
Emails obtained by The Daily Caller show that the U.S. Treasury Department, led by Timothy Geithner, was the driving force behind terminating the pensions of 20,000 salaried retirees at the Delphi auto parts manufacturing company.
The move, made in 2009 while the Obama administration implemented its auto bailout plan, appears to have been made solely because those retirees were not members of labor unions.
The internal government emails contradict sworn testimony, in federal court and before Congress, given by several Obama administration figures. They also indicate that the administration misled lawmakers and the courts about the sequence of events surrounding the termination of those non-union pensions, and that administration figures violated
The mentality of a leftist: You didn’t earn anything, govt/unions gave it to you.
Speaking of unions, I saw a p/u truck plastered with union stickers and next to those a NOBAMA sticker. So there is at least one sane union member out there. It’s a start.
Now let’s do the comparison of all union contributions vs all corporate or CEO contributions. My guess is you are smart enough to understand that it’s total donations and your chart is propaganda.
The fact that public sector unions have been destroyed and private sector are currently being cut down shows you who donates more and who is in control.
It’s even better to be a banker who took TRILLIONS OF YOUR tax money and has yet to pay it all back.
You got prison punked by the bankers, but blame the unions. How… typical.
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Comment by 2banana
2012-08-07 11:53:03
Actually - I blame them both. Both have become leeches on society and government.
YOU, however - as a kool-aid drinking liberal, see nothing wrong with unions, especially public unions, bankrupting cities/counties/states ALL across America and taking BILLIONS in taxpayer funds that will never be paid back.
Why?
Because unions give 99% of their money to democrats.
And that is ALL that matters to you.
Comment by measton
2012-08-07 13:54:59
Again let’s compare total contributions and power of unions vs CEO, Hedge Fund, Big Oil, class vs unions.
Let’s compare the tax benefits and wealth gains of these elites to the trade policy and loss of health care benefits and job security and pay of the unions and tell us who is the real problem.
The elites are winning by every metric and you sit here and spew about unions day in and day out. Anyone who says otherwise is a koolaid drinking liberal?
The reality is that there should be a balance of power between labor and capital and that the power has tilted more and more toward the elites. Many who thought unions were too powerfull in the 70’s see that the elite have stripped too much power and wealth and have destroyed institutions that can organize people against them, ie press, unions, Tea Party, OWS etc.
Family Security Matters, lol. Are they part of the Kochtopus?
How come you didn’t make the list of right wing posters, Jethro? Did your lyric rewrites grant you artistic immunity? (And what about Blue, and anonDC, and AQ Dan, and…)
“Family Security Matters (FSM) originated in 2003 as a project of the Center for Security Policy, a hawkish security policy think tank and advocacy group. Soon after its formation FSM claimed to represent “security moms”.
Meanwhile, who’s the parent of Project Security Mom?
Center for Security Policy was founded in 1988 and states that it operates as a “non-profit, non-partisan organization committed to the time-tested philosophy of promoting international peace through American strength.” … Dick Cheney, Vice President of the U.S. under George W. Bush, was an early member of Center’s Board of Advisors (which is now called the National Security Advisory Council).
… Donations to the Center have come from a variety of conservative foundations such as: The Smith Richardson Foundation, The Sarah Scaife Foundation, The Carthage Foundation, The Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, and the John M. Olin Foundation.
Yep.
Seriously, wingnut welfare must be one heckuva Venn diagram. How do these folks keep track of who sits on which board of which foundation, much less do any “analysis,” all while presumably holding other publishing or political jobs?
The fall 2008 financial panic was all Thomas Jefferson’s fault, at least according to this writer.
Never mind that Jefferson has been dead for over 100 years. Never mind the scrapping of Glass-Steagall, or the rise and fall of the too-big-to-fail Megabank, Inc oligopoly.
Does Megabank, Inc pay writers like this one to pen WSJ Op-eds for them?
We are now in the midst of a major financial panic. This is not a unique occurrence in American history. Indeed, we’ve had one roughly every 20 years: in 1819, 1836, 1857, 1873, 1893, 1907, 1929, 1987 and now 2008. Many of these marked the beginning of an extended period of economic depression.
How could the richest and most productive economy the world has ever known have a financial system so prone to periodic and catastrophic break down? One answer is the baleful influence of Thomas Jefferson.
Jefferson, to be sure, was a genius and fully deserves his place on Mt. Rushmore. But he was also a quintessential intellectual who was often insulated from the real world. He hated commerce, he hated speculators, he hated the grubby business of getting and spending (except his own spending, of course, which eventually bankrupted him). Most of all, he hated banks, the symbol for him of concentrated economic power. Because he was the founder of an enduring political movement, his influence has been strongly felt to the present day.
…
Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 we have had the “Great depression” and the “Great recession” due to the ability to flood an economy with money and the problem that people that have access to the money first ( the banksters) will be able to buy up real assets with paper before the paper depreciates. The concentration of wealth has been aided by government.
The Founding fathers protected us from the banksters with their resistance to a national bank and the tying of money to gold. They protected us for the free sh*t army by attempting to have the power of govenment very limited and no power for transfers of wealth between individuals. The breakdown of both protections has created the problem we are facing. And the wealthy often support these transfers since they keep people from rioting. However, they want the middle class to pay for them. Look at the the VAT (sales tax) and gasoline taxes in Europe.
There were several depressions long before the federal reserve was formed.
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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-07 12:38:22
Yes. and we were able to emerge from them without governmental intervention. They made the country stronger not weaker. More productive, creative destruction was allowed to work its magic.
Comment by ecofeco
2012-08-07 22:16:59
You have got to be kidding.
The early history of this country was a roller coaster of depression after depression.
“Creative destruction” is pruning a tree, not burning it down.
I saw a production of the “Bad Quarto” Hamlet last night. It was awsome. Haven’t seen it in years - since a bunch of off-off broadway theater did a Hamlet festival in NYC.
A few months ago, I saw Shakespeare’s “Winter Tale.” Acted by Tucson’s Rogue Theatre.
Go see them if you’re here. Just do it. I’d be happy to take you if you need a friend to support you while you watch a Shakespearean play.
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Comment by polly
2012-08-07 13:48:35
Last night’s production was by a company called Taffety Punk. I’m really enjoying them. Definitely going to check out The Rape of Lucrece later in the year.
And Shakespeare by a company that calls itself Rogue sounds like a good time. But if I’m ever there, I’ll treat you.
Comment by polly
2012-08-07 13:57:50
And I love Winter’s Tale.
“Exit, pursued by a bear”
I saw an NYC fringe festival show a few years ago that was a musical version of Winter’s Tale. It needed a lot of work, but was already pretty darn good. I got their CD. Just had to have it.
This is not a unique occurrence in American history. Indeed, we’ve had one roughly every 20 years: in 1819, 1836, 1857, 1873, 1893, 1907, 1929, 1987 and now 2008.
Wow, he’s right. Every 20 years, throughout all of American history, we have a panic/depression, just like clockwork. Whoops! I see an exception! Somewhere in there is a 58 year period without a panic. The period of 1929 to 1987, the first 51 years of which were the period when we employed Keynesian economic policy, the last few years of which were when we dropped it in favor of trickle-down supply-side monetarist economics. At which point the 20 year cycle reasserts itself. Hmm.
One of the problems people have with the Fed, and with government spending in general, is that a small group of people have the ability to pick winners and losers in the economy, instead of letting individual desire, the atomic component of the economy, which ultimately creates the ocean currents of the economy as a whole, dictate the direction of the economy.
The problem with letting a small group of individuals do that is:
1) The system is prone to corruption, as the people doing the spending and allocations are just as human as the lady working the cash register at the grocery store. And the elites have fears and desires which are just as manipulable as the cashier’s.
2) The system is rife with inefficiency and unintended consequences. All centrally planned systems have either failed or are failing.
On the other hand, government is, factually, the largest actor in an economy. This was Keynes insight. But, there is a relentless tendency towards centralization of power among human societies, which ultimately leads to more corruption and inefficiency.
A corrupt and inefficient system imposes a great deal of costs on the larger citizenry, while rewarding the insiders. This is nothing new.
Hudson Yards: New York City’s Urban Town Within A City
NEW YORK — New York lost the 2012 Olympics, but the city’s bid for the summer games spurred another, visionary venture: building up the largest undeveloped parcel in Manhattan.
This October, developers of the ambitious Hudson Yards project expect to break ground on a skyscraper where the Olympic stadium could have been.
It’s the first step in a $15 billion small city within a city planned for 26 acres of land by the river, bounded by 10th and 12th avenues and West 30th and 33rd streets.
At 12 million square feet, Hudson Yards is billed as New York’s most ambitious private construction since the 1930s, with thousands of apartment units including affordable housing.
I was listening to a Freakonomics Podcast, and I think they noted that your best bet is to finish in 2nd or 3rd for the Olympic running. You’ll spend many, many millions for the effort ($100MM?), and send a signal to the rest of the world that you are a top tier City, but won’t need to spend $Billions in facilities.
If you win, you spend the billions, and don’t add anything to local economic activity, since those visiting are essentially displacing other tourists (that would have come anyway). Any slight increase in people coming in is eaten up by the billions in costs.
Congress isn’t really going to let the so-called fiscal cliff — the planned tax hikes and spending cuts that will be triggered at the end of the year if no action is taken — will they?
According to a note published by J.P. Morgan, there’s a 15% chance they will.
“The bottom line is that under various scenarios, our analysis suggests a 15% chance of actually ‘falling off the fiscal cliff’ for as much as 6 months – that is, expiring tax provisions plus sequestration push the U.S. economy into recession in the first half of 2013. Interestingly, we think the likelihood is similar regardless of who takes the White House. Of course, this is an adverse scenario of risky assets and we see the downside for the S&P 500 SPX at around 1100 (15% downside for equity markets),” said the analysts.
…
Congress isn’t really going to let the so-called fiscal cliff — the planned tax hikes and spending cuts that will be triggered at the end of the year if no action is taken — will they?
Heck, even Romney’s on record to continue kicking the can at least one more year. It’s a done deal.
Not necessarily. A lot of it depends on the election. But this analysis isn’t for it happening at all. The chance of that happening is fairly high. The analysis is for it being stuck in place for 6 months or more. That is a lot less likely.
For now the DC whispering machine is that the Democrats think it might be worth letting it happen for a few weeks because then they can propose restoring the cuts for the middle class and the Republicans might go for it because it won’t be “breaking” their pledge to Grover N. They would be only voting for tax cuts because the tax increases would have already happened. I think the idea that the Republicans would fall for this rhetoric is absurd, but that is what they are hoping for. And it honestly, it is dependent on keeping the White House and/or still having the majority in the Senate. A president not running for re-election could say send me a bill without the tax cuts for the wealthy or I don’t sign it and be believable - maybe. And the leadership could refuse to bring it for a vote in the Senate - maybe. But anything else and they will cave in like a dried out sand castle facing a pack of 4 year olds.
Ya gotta love Robert Shiller’s intellectual honesty — such a rare quality in this world over-confident bovine brains!
That said, given that this bubble was the biggest ever in history, with residential real estate prices and transactions volume steadily building from the trough in 1996 to the onset of housing price implosion in 2006, the chances that it has already bottomed out sooner than the last bust ended seem very slim.
August 6, 2012, 1:00 PM
Is This the End of the Housing Bust? Not So Fast, Says Shiller
By Joe Light
As I wrote in the Weekend Investor cover story, “Is the Real-Estate Rebound for Real?,” this weekend, many indicators are pointing to a bottom forming in the housing market. New-home inventories are at historic lows. Home-builder sentiment has finally turned the corner. And finally, home prices have ticked up for four months in a row on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
All that might make it tempting to call the “all clear” once and for all. But one of the earliest experts to identify the real-estate bubble, Yale University professor Robert Shiller, isn’t convinced we’ve crossed into safe territory just yet.
His reasoning? The home-price rebound, if that’s what it is, doesn’t yet have momentum – which Shiller’s research has found is the most powerful driver of home prices.
Momentum is the tendency for prices to keep moving in the same direction. It exists, but is a relatively weak force, in the stock market. In the housing market, though, it’s proven to be a reliable predictor of where prices will go in the future.
That’s in part because of what Shiller calls “feedback loops.” When someone makes a lot of money off of home-price increases, his friends hear about it and maybe the media takes note. Others who hear those stories decide to take their chances buying a home themselves. That leads to further price increases and more success stories, and the loop continues.
Feedback loops can help home prices – as they did during the housing boom – or hurt them, as they have with all the bad real-estate news over the last few years.
With several successive months of price increases, you’d think that momentum would finally be in the real-estate market’s favor. But Shiller says he stills sees reason to be skeptical.
“It could be [a bottom]. It’s a real possibility. I just don’t know,” he says.
…
Sure it’s a recovery by government definition. Said recovery is a slowing in the rate of decline, just like budget cuts are slowing the rate of spending increases.
Positive feedback loops and negative feedback loops.
Foreclosures beget more price reductions, which beget more foreclosures, etc. is one of those negative feedback loops.
A big part of when the positive feedback loops strengthen/appear is when that big negative feedback loop weakens, which is why I keep noting non-current loan rates.
In some markets, the negative feedback loop of foreclosures is weakening based on the data. In other markets there is a real risk of additional foreclosures feeding that negative loop.
Follow the non-current loans, and you’ll find where there is fuel for the negative feedback loop of foreclosures.
I struck up a conversation about housing prices a at a party a couple of nights ago with a friend who is a second generation appraiser, a renter, and one of the few San Diegans with whom I feel comfortable having an open discussion about housing, as neither of us is a true believer in the “real estate always goes up” theory of housing price dynamics.
His view is that despite the rising chorus of serial bottom callers insisting the bottom is real this time, that there is another wave down in prices ahead before the SoCal bust is over. ‘Nuff said.
His view is that despite the rising chorus of serial bottom callers insisting the bottom is real this time, that there is another wave down in prices ahead before the SoCal bust is over. ‘Nuff said.
I agree. With high unemployment persisting into the foreseeable future, and with job growth and household formation being down in the cellar, there are no trends that justify sustained increases in house prices.
I call a dead cat bounce on the latest house price increases.
South Florida is getting ready for tougher gun laws.
Posted: 8:39 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2012
Woman and dog stabbed to death in Miami; ex-boyfriend in custody
By MONIQUE O. MADAN
The Miami Herald
A women and a boxer dog were stabbed to death in a Miami Gardens home late Monday night, according to reports.
The women’s daughter was stabbed but was able to escape. She was taken to Jackson North hospital in stable condition.
According to police, Alphonso Jerard Lucas, 39, the woman’s former boyfriend, turned himself in to police at the home in the 4500 block of Northwest 180th Street, Miami Herald news partner CBS4 reported.
Investigators were at the home early Tuesday morning awaiting a warrant to enter the home. Lucas is in police custody and is being questioned.
Posted: 10:12 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2012
Man dies after being stabbed in suburban Boca Raton
By Cynthia Roldan
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
A suburban Boca Raton man died from his injuries overnight after he was stabbed Monday.
Palm Beach County Sheriff’s deputies were dispatched to the 2200th block of Southwest 54th Way, in the Sandalfoot Cove development just after 11:30 p.m., to reports of a stabbing. When they arrived, deputies were told that 25-year-old Antonio Caceres had been stabbed in his lower torso after being involved in an altercation with an unidentified man, said Deputy Eric Davis, spokesman for the sheriff’s office.
Caceres was rushed to West Boca Medical Center by his friends, and later taken to Delray Medical Center were he was pronounced dead just before 3 a.m., Davis said.
The investigation into the stabbing is ongoing, Davis said.
Give em all 25 years and no parole/early release unless they can read and understand current events in the Miami herald and in front of a judge or parole board…now thats tough.
If we just had common sense knife laws, none of these tragedies would have occurred.
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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-07 11:46:33
There is no need for anyone but a law enforcement officer to have anything but a plastic knife. I suggest Costco since they carry the best plastic knives.
Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-08-07 17:40:07
You could put your eye out with that. Only nerf knives are safe.
Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-08-07 18:49:35
“There is no need for anyone but a law enforcement officer to have anything but a plastic knife. I suggest Costco since they carry the best plastic knives.”
The officer was rushed to the hospital without his face. It took ten more plastic knife yielding SWAT members to subdue the crazed suspect.
“If the dog had been packing heat, this tragedy could have been averted.”
If the dog knew how to drive and had access to an SUV, this tragedy could have been averted.
Like I said, South Florida is getting ready for tougher gun laws. But the criminal nuts will still get the job done.
Posted: 11:14 a.m. Sunday, July 15, 2012
Man arrested on first-degree murder charge for hitting Lake Worth family with SUV
By Barbara Marshall and Cynthia Roldan
Palm Beach Post Staff Writers
Update: A judge denied bond for Diego Pascual, accused of running over a family with his sport-utility vehicle, killing a woman and injuring four others. He was ordered to have no contact with any of the victims and possess no weapons.
LAKE WORTH —
On Sunday morning, the world of a little girl in a pink T-shirt collapsed in a bloody moment.
Diego Francisco Pascual had decided that he wanted to “scare” and “hurt” his live-in girlfriend and her family, the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office said. So the Lake Worth man ran them over, killing his girlfriend’s mother and injuring her father and three of their children. A fourth one managed to jump out of his way just in time.
Pascual, 26, is in the Palm Beach County Jail on charges of first-degree murder and five counts of attempted first-degree murder. He turned himself in Sunday afternoon to a Lake Worth substation after he said “he thought about what he did,” according to the arrest report.
Diego Francisco Pascual appears in court Monday morning after the Lake Worth man allegedly ran over the family of his live-in girlfriend, killing his girlfriend’s mother and injuring her father and three of their children on Sunday. Pascual, 26, is in the Palm Beach County Jail on charges of first-degree murder and five counts of attempted first-degree murder.
One of Mr Schmitz’s tenants, Paula, had bought a house in 2007. She and her husband picked out every detail, from the site to the cabinet knobs, and watched it being built, slab by slab. After the recession hit, her husband, a trucker, saw his business dry up and his costs soar with the price of fuel. They fell behind on their payments and, to avoid foreclosure, sold the house for little more than a third of what they paid in a “short sale” just before Christmas in 2010. “I was sick to my stomach,” she recalled. But when Mr Schmitz, the buyer, asked if she and her husband would like to remain as tenants, it was “our Christmas miracle. It was win-win.” Their rent is now roughly half their original mortgage payment, and “We kept our dignity.”
Let me offer a more straightforward explanation of why investors have left the stock market: it has been a losing proposition. An entire generation of investors hasn’t made a buck.
“The cult of equity is dying,” Bill Gross, the founder of Pimco, wrote in his monthly letter last week.
“Like a once bright green aspen turning to subtle shades of yellow then red in the Colorado fall, investors’ impressions of ’stocks for the long run’ or any run have mellowed as well,” Mr. Gross wrote. His letter came after he had sent a Twitter post that read: “Boomers can’t take risk. Gen X and Y believe in Facebook but not its stock. Gen Z has no money.”
this reminds me of a show called “Deadwood” were all the independant gold miners were scared into selling their claims to a front man who was buying for a big Gold miner named Hearst
The local rents must always be figured in. There are some places that rents will probably never crater. They may fall a little bit every now and then (as SF rents did after ‘89 earthquake or dotcom bust), but there places like NYC and SF have never seen a rent collapse.
I had been looking at rentals here in SF and it’s pretty nuts. Renting a ROOM in my neighborhood is upwards of $800 month. Can’t get a SFH to rent for under 3K, unless it’s in an extremely sketchy neighborhood.
My entire family and childhood friends are still in NYC. The only folks who have managed to remain in Manhattan are those who own, like my mother, or those who have rent controlled apts.
Here in SF, we are the hold-outs. Everyone I knew from my 20’s, when I first moved here, has left for more affordable digs, usually the East Bay or Portland. But we love it here, and have gainful employment.
You seem to forget something. I’m based in NYC. Secondly, NYC isn’t “Manhattan”. Thirdly, you’re misrepresenting the truth about Manhattan. Rental rates are slipping in Manhattan.
Why are you here misrepresenting the truth about housing?
Well, it is a bad thing if one owns a lot of equities because such a death will tend to lower the prices a bit. It is bad if one wants (or needs) to become a seller of equities.
But what if one yearns to become a buyer of equities? Isn’t the death of an equity cult something that a buyer should welcome?
Maybe equity prices will end up (gasp) becoming re-connected to fundamentals.
It’s a bad thing for 401k’s and pension funds, which is a bad thing for the unemployment rate (marginally fewer people retiring, marginally fewer government employees, marginally higher tax rates), which is a bad thing for the economy, which is a bad thing for businesses, which is a bad thing for 401k’s.
Inflate, inflate, inflate (or at least attempt to inflate).
Look in my eyes, what do you see?
Cult of dying equity
I know your anger, I know your dreams
I’ve been everything you want to be
I’m the cult of personality
Like Mussolini and Kennedy
I’m the cult of dying equity
Cult of dying equity
Cult of dying equity
Neon lights, Nobel Prize
When a mirror speaks, the reflection lies
You won’t have to follow me
Only you can set me free
I sell the things you need to be
I’m the smiling face on your TV
I’m the cult of dying equity
I exploit you, still you love me
I told you one and one make three
I’m the cult of dying equity
Like Joseph Stalin and Gandhi
I’m the cult of dying equity
Cult of dying equity
Cult of dying equity
Neon lights, a Nobel Prize
A leader speaks, that leader dies
You won’t have to follow me
Only you can set you free
You gave me fortune
You gave me fame
You gave me power in your God’s name
I’m every person you need to be
I’m the cult of dying equity
They are a “good” investment, only because Bernanke has helicopters, and the PPT have decided that pumping share prices are Job #1, and screw pretty much everything/everybody else.
Share prices are artificially inflated for the same reason as house prices. To support the investment banks “mark to fantasy” asset valuations, until the can be dumped.
Let me offer a more straightforward explanation of why investors have left the stock market: it has been a losing proposition. An entire generation of investors hasn’t made a buck.
You know what? Now that I think about it, this is analogous to a situation we encountered this weekend. After grilling for dinner, we decided to go out for some ice cream at some new trendy place with all those exotic flavors (chevre with marionberry habanero jam and other bullsh*t) here in town.
When we got there at 9:30PM there was a line around the corner and the wait was 45 minutes to one hour according to one guy in line. He then says, “What else are you gonna do?”
Um, for starters, not wait in line for over-hyped ice cream. Duh.
It’s like an epidemic in this country. Houses. Stocks. Ice cream. I mean, what else are you gonna do?
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-07 12:21:09
When we got there at 9:30PM there was a line around the corner and the wait was 45 minutes to one hour according to one guy in line. He then says, “What else are you gonna do?”
Um, for starters, not wait in line for over-hyped ice cream. Duh.
I think I’d be wanting to figure out how to make my own ice cream. Bet I could do that in less than 45 minutes.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-08-07 12:37:54
My wife redirected me away from the scene before I could scream, “The Emperor has no clothes!”
Comment by MrBubble
2012-08-07 13:03:05
“Bet I could do that in less than 45 minutes.”
Slim — the Alton Brown vanilla ice cream recipe is very quick. But it’s important to let the mixture cool in the fridge for a while to prevent a granular texture, so that increased the time to cookie hole. Best to make on a Saturday morning (15 min), chill until lunch and churn while you’re eating, then freeze until dinner.
One of Pollen’s “Food Rules” is that you can eat junk food as long as you make it. It’s amazing how few times a years you’ll eat potato chips if you have to make them!
Comment by polly
2012-08-07 14:02:29
Marionberries are just northwest blackberries.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-08-07 14:12:54
Yep:
“The ‘Marion’ cultivar (Rubus L. subgenus Rubus) or Marion blackberry, marketed as About this sound marionberry (help·info), is a hybrid caneberry developed by the USDA ARS breeding program in cooperation with Oregon State University. It is a cross between the ‘Chehalem’ and ‘Olallie’ berries.[1] The marionberry is currently the most common blackberry cultivar,[2][3] accounting for over half of all blackberries produced in Oregon.[4]”
Side note: I took a beer-brewing class last weekend. OSU is also producing some pretty awesome hops as well. Can’t wait to cook up a brew soon.
Thomas Jefferson: out of control spending leads to oppression and tyranny
Yes - excessive spending inevitably brings taxes and oppression. In a word: tyranny. Even the Founding Fathers saw it.
————————————————————–
In a letter to Samuel Kercheval (June 12, 1816), Jefferson wrote the following:
And to preserve their independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we run into such debts, as that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are, our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in the twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses; and the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they now do, on oatmeal and potatoes; have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account; but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-sufferers.
This example reads to us the salutary lesson, that private fortunes are destroyed by public as well as by private extravagance. And this is the tendency of all human governments. A departure from principle in one instance becomes a precedent for a second; that second for a third; and so on, till the bulk of the society is reduced to be mere automatons of misery, and to have no sensibilities left but for sinning and suffering. Then begins, indeed, the bellum omnium in omnia, which some philosophers observing to be so general in this world, have mistaken it for the natural, instead of the abusive state of man. And the fore horse of this frightful team is public debt. Taxation follows that, and in its train wretchedness and oppression.
Oh yes those oppressed elite paying less then 10% on every dollar earned, with their off shore accounts that never get audited their tax loopholes, their control of trade policy, and regulation.
Thomas Jefferson: out of control spending leads to oppression and tyranny
“Oh and Toby…..instruct my slave, the young miss Sally Hemmings, to report to my bedroom in an hour with 2 glasses and a bottle of mulberry wine” Thomas Jefferson, 1787
Home prices across the nation continued their upswing in June, according to a new report from CoreLogic. Including sales of foreclosures and short sales (selling for less than the value of the mortgage), prices rose 2.5 percent from a year ago.
But that’s OK, since rents are decreasing and so renting is still the way to go. Oh wait…
Asking rents rose in 24 of the 25 largest rental markets from a year ago, according to a new report from online real estate company Trulia. Rents are pushing double digit gains in San Francisco, Miami, Oakland, Denver, Seattle and Boston, and rents are rising faster than asking prices in 21 of the 25 largest rental markets year-over-year.
Plans for a so-called “dockominium” at a Fort Lauderdale marina have landed in bankruptcy court.
The Fort Lauderdale BoatClub Ltd. filed for Chapter 11 Thursday, declaring $13.5 million in assets and $10.3 million in liabilities.
The marina, at 1915 SW 21st Avenue in Fort Lauderdale, was formerly known as Jackson Marine. A group of investors bought it for $16 million in 2006 with the idea of selling the boat spaces.
The project is in receivership after Jacksonville-based EverBank filed a foreclosure lawsuit in August 2011 over a mortgage last modified at $11 million.
Edward Ruff, the principal of the borrower and Naples-based BoatclubsAmerica, signed the bankruptcy petition.
Bankruptcy attorney is Barry P. Gruher of Genovese Joblove & Battista.
Among the local creditors is Miami-based law firm Bilzin Sumberg Baena Price & Axelrod, with a disputed claim of $150,023, according to the petition.
The 12-acre site was approved for 330 dry slips, 14 executive offices, 14 garages for storage and a boat yard.
National Liquidators, which seizes boats from delinquent owners and auctions them off, has since used the site.
Gross income for the project as listed on the bankruptcy filing was $2.1 million in 2010; $2 million in 2011; and $1.1 million in 2012 (to date).
All it takes is a single debt coming due without cash to pay it off or a source of refinancing. Either financial institutions are getting really nervous, or the financial statements for this company have some not so well hidden secrets.
If you can’t show that you have equity to protect, and a way to reasonably pay the debt, you shouldn’t waste your money on a BK.
If you can show that you have equity to protect, and thus that the lender is in a safe position, and that you have cash flow sufficient to pay back the lender in time, then the judge can essentially force a loan extension upon the lender.
My great fear was that first Bush II and then Obama’s push for democracy would lead to a major war between the Sunni and Shiite branches of Islam. Far from unleashing democratic forces they unleashed fanatics from both branches. I think we are very close to all out war between the branches. Iran’s first target for nuclear weapons with probably be Saudi Arabia not Israel.
Althgouh it certainly would lead to economic hardship, $300 bbl oil would certainly fix a few problems in the US: type II diabetes, obesity, (some) pollution, vehicular homicide, DUI, stay-at-home moms with school age kids driving SUVs to the gym, unemployment rates (due to compulsory military service to invade OPEC nations), etc.
There are unintended consequences of keeping interest rates very low. For extended periods of time. Basically, the short video talks about investors willing to dabble in riskier loans in order to obtain higher yield. Nothing surprising there. But if these loans start going bad at higher than expected rates, will the government again step in to pay them off?
The Hunt for Yield in Asset-Backed Bond Offerings
Bloomberg Video
01:31 minutes
If you manage your own money and you have enough of it then you can rest easy by remaining in cash. But if you manage other people’s money then you cannot stay in cash because staying in cash will not generate the income needed to pay your management fee, let alone pay a return to your sheep, er investors.
So out of cash you will have to go - not because you want to but because you have no other choice. At the same time lots of other money managers will be getting out of cash and into whatever for the same reason.
All this cash going into whatever will tend to push the price of this whatever well beyond a prudent risk/return ratio.
From July 2008 to July 2012, cash returned 0%. S&P500 returned 4.25% annually (with reinvested dividends). Had you cost averaged with purchases every few weeks, you’d be looking at close to 10% return annually.
Why you people continue to drool over cash is one of life’s great mysteries.
If you pick your start and end points well, then yes, you can certainly do quite well. It’s market timing.
If you don’t pick your start and end points well, then it’s another story entirely. You become more concerned with the return OF your investment rather than the return ON your investment.
For the S&P 500 example, had you invested anytime from 2000 to 2002, you’d have lost money if you pulled it out in July 2012: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Egspc
For dollar-cost averaging, it would be informative to know the average cost paid for the shares over a period of time, versus the price one could get for them if one sold them at the current time.
Remember - you don’t make money till you cash out.
Back to: “1. Some very hungry and desperate and maybe well-connected players…”
I probably should have said “A WHOLE LOT of hungry and desperate and maybe well-connected players …” because a WHOLE LOT of people went into finance during the boom, and finance and managing money is where many of them still are because that is all they know.
Lots of money managers climbing over each other trying to chase the yield makes for some fun and interesting viewing - but the viewing is a bit less fun (but no doubt is still quite interesting) if the money that is being used in playing Chase-The-Yield belongs to you.
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Comment by Combotechie
2012-08-07 13:27:37
One of the nifty things about being a money manager is there is delayed feedback: Whatever the investment decisions, whatever the promises, the payoff (or lack of payoff) may not materialize until some time well in the future - maybe months, maybe years.
Meanwhile the management fees get deducted beginning with the first month, when the investment is first made, and every month thereafter (this, as I understand it, is the usual arrangement).
Pay them money now and they will promise to maybe, somehow, arrange it so you will get paid money later.
And if the promise is not kept? Oh, well. Sorry about that.
Next?
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-08-07 14:01:35
Meanwhile the management fees get deducted beginning with the first month
Bingo. That was going to be my response as well. Reading “Enough” by Bogle right now. While I suspect there’s a little bit of salesmanship to low-cost index funds coming as I read further, that is a central theme so far: too many college grads going into the non-productive finance sector and managers extract too much of investors’ wealth/gains. Downright Commie-talk coming from such a money guy.
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-07 14:52:49
“Meanwhile the management fees get deducted beginning with the first month, when the investment is first made, and every month thereafter (this, as I understand it, is the usual arrangement).”
Stupid people agree to such arrangements. Smart people agree to arrangements where the fees are a % of the returns. No returns, no fees.
Comment by Combotechie
2012-08-07 15:57:53
“Smart people agree to arrangements where the fees are a % of the returns. No returns, no fees.”
Here again the risk is with the owners of the OPM. If there is to be fee based returns then the money manger has an incentive to take the largest risks available if there is even a hint of a large return.
If the investment works out then both the manager and the owner of the OPM get a big win. If it doesn’t work out then the OPM owner gets to eat a big loss and the money manager gets to break even.
Comment by polly
2012-08-07 16:06:05
So everyone who invests in a hedge fund is stupid? Standard hedge fund fee is 2% of amount managed every year AND 20% of any profits.
Comment by Combotechie
2012-08-07 16:07:17
“fee based returns” should read “return based fees”
Comment by Combotechie
2012-08-07 16:31:48
Give to me a million dollars and I will establish a genuine track record that will blow you out of the water. How about, say, a forty percent return? Would you sign up for that?
Here’s what I would do:
1. I would divide the million into ten equal parts and open up ten commodity trading accounts.
2. I would select five volatile commodities, such as, say, porkbellies, and I would buy one of these commodities in one account and sell an equal amount of the same commodity in another account. I would do this - buying and offsetting by selling - in all ten accounts.
3. One of these accounts will do very well, some will do less well, some will be disasters. I will close out all the accounts EXCEPT the account that did the best (and I will suffer a bit of a loss, one that I am willing to eat) and - presto! - I will have for me a well established trading record.
And this trading record can be annoited and blessed by auditors as being true (because it is true) and it can be used as a sales tool to convince owners of OPM to hand over to me all their hard-earned cash, their life savings, and all the money they can cash out of their house.
They will do this because I - along with my annointed and blessed trading record - will convince them that I am indeed a bonified trading genius.
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-08 00:00:18
You are fooling yourself if you think it’s that easy.
Also, when found out, you will be sued for lack of disclosure of material information (the 9 accounts that you conveniently did not disclose).
And those that sue you will win.
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-08 00:13:59
You know what they call a private equity manager who negotiates a 2% and 20% structure and doesn’t deliver results?
Out of business.
Also, and Combo, most managers need to invest a substantial amount of their own money alongside OPM, so it’s not as simple as you say (where managers are taking big risks without worry of loss of capital). First, if big bets don’t pay off, good luck raising the next fund. Second, if those big risks don’t pay off, you lose your own money (as well as needing to pay salaries in the meantime for your employees).
Those investing in private equity take things like conflicts of interest and alignment of interest very seriously.
I have been thinking this thing (low interest rates) thru from M1 and M2 where when total velocity lessens you just print more.
But investing it in bonds to fuel municipal payrolls just lengthens Armagaden - I think.
I think the stock players with their halved volumes are showing us that they can - sort of - keep the market above a safe level - for them.
Bankers are to be pitied. They must be in their corner offices terrified of the retribution the system (maybe even the government) will do to them for their poor behaviour.
Does anyone on this board seriously think housing prices are really going up ? Pockets of well fed, employed persons in prime buying season do not make a market.
As far as interest rates I think BB knows he took a chance and bought some time. But the ship has not been fixed and can still sink. A few scarry things like capacity utilization, ship revenues, employment, Europe, decline in some profits, China, the Cliff -, unaddressed poor financial behaviours - this doesn’t give a lot of confidence.
1. Ultimately you either retrieve your printings or you devalue your dollar to relative GDP. (I think I read that would make the dollar worth about .86 net present value a short while ago)
2. Pensioners who saved all their lives and rely on approximately 30% of their spending money from interest on savings - could now be 3% - and there is a lot of these people getting 1.5% on their savings.
3. Banks, insurance companies - anyone relying on interest rates are having a tough time getting their leverage down or paying fixed insurance contracts because interest rates are so low they are having trouble just covering their operating costs.
4. When the dollar does reflect it’s value, energy costs will balloon so that the producing countries can receive fair value.
5. Goverments all over the world will find it impossible to operate anywhere close to their current levels. This could cause sovereigns to go bankrupt all by itself.
6. Bloated stock markets will be affected by reduced corporate earnings - and will drive the market down as the value of zero interest loses it’s lustre. Reversed interest though might drive it up wildly if you had to pay to store your money.
7. Muni bankruptcies will occur in greater volumes because the low interest rates will encourage it. Not only do you get rid of your problems, but you get to refi the rest at a very cheap rate.
8. If interest rates go up - housing goes down. If they stay where they are - housing stagnates because buyers are waiting for prices to drop further. This current mini boom makes no sense until you realize that it is based on a handful of sales.
9. Tax liability distribution is slanted in favour of the rich. Middle earners cannot carry the load on their own as they are a dwindling group due to baby boomers retiring, recession, and offshoring. The current low interest rates are an impediment to this class because it cannot “consolidate loans” at the cheaper price as a majority which would heavily influence consumation by this group. They cannot because their consumer debt is almost record high and their real equity has thinned out. So called risk premiums are pushing the ability to re-pay beyond a loan that would wrap it all. A lot of words, but without significant tax reform - this group is going in a handbasket.
10. Repatriation of world wide incomes can no longer be done without upsetting the apple cart of target countries. What a waste. We probably will start to see a reduction in corporate savings as they feel more secure and buy back their shares. What a waste. But the real waste is all those well trained and educated people who currently cannot find decent employment.
I don’t have cable, so I’m basically SOL from watching the Olympics. From NBC’s site, you have to enter your cable subscription account info to get access. When selecting Comcast, however, they’ll give you a temporary, one-time pass. I thought I was able to bypass them by entering a different email address but I think what really happened was, when I did that, I also used a different computer. If I use the same PC but use a different email address, it tells me my pass has expired.
My question is, do they use an IP address to track it? Should resetting my router change anything? (Didn’t seem to.) Or are they also able to read MAC addresses off the PC itself?
Let’s see…. Today on the Housing Bubble Blog we have roughly 9 posts related to housing and ………300 posts related to elections and ideological far out bullshit.
Look in my eyes, what do you see?
Cult of dying equity
I know your anger, I know your dreams
I’ve been everything you want to be
I’m the cult of dying equity
Like Mozilo and Bernanke
I’m the cult of dying equity
Cult of dying equity
Cult of dying equity
Neon lights, Nobel Prize
When a Realtor speaks, the reflection lies
You won’t have to follow me
Only you can set me free
You gave me fortune
You gave me fame
You gave me work outs in a victims game
I’m every person you need to be
I’m the cult of dying equity
If I can get this Citizen Cope “Hurricane Waters” earworm dislodged, I’ll listen to those vids. Thanks for tossing ‘em my way.
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Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-07 18:33:54
Okay, now you did it. I want to play Living Colour on the radio!
Only problem is, the airtime I’m getting is on the all women! all the time! show. Which means that I’d be in a bit of a pickle with The Producer if I played Living Colour.
Hell, I got my knuckles rapped for playing Sharon Jones and the Dap Kings. Darn those Dap Kings.
Comment by Muggy
2012-08-07 19:05:01
Oh, well, you can always go with cooler-than-now Sleigh Bells. Not my thing, but it has its place.
I hope you all are well. Since the beginning of July I have been working 10-12 hour days getting up to speed in my new gig. I suppose some could do it in less time, but I refuse to let anything go unfinished, and/or be completed half-assed. Things should calm down in a few weeks once the schools are back open. I’ve lost about 15 pounds since I skip lunch almost every day.
Nobody at work really talks about real estate anymore, but there are a lot of teachers still talking about leaving and going elsewhere. Georgia and North Carolina are still the most spoken. I hired a few people this year and they’re all from Ohio, Michigan, New York, etc. Economic refugees.
Many districts in Florida are facing budget shortfalls for next year. The anti-testing faction is gaining momentum, so it’ll be interesting to see where that goes. The pendulum might… be…
About three weeks ago, I was driving through Washington about 30 miles north of Olympia on the Olympic Peninsula in Washington, and I was in a georgeous rainforest with 200 foot trees towering up above me and little cottages where I was wondering what type of people lived here in this quiet peculiar forest when I saw a restaurant that served Geoducks, and I thought about this blog’s Patron Saint. Not every blog has a patron saint you know so bless you all me hearties.
Name:Ben Jones Location:Northern Arizona, United States To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
59 out of 367 total posts in yesterday’s bits bucket were from Smithers, thank you for your enthusiastic participation
Slithers blithers incessantly.
I finally broke down and sicced the Joshua Tree Extension’s “ignore” function on him.
Aw dang. Does that wipe out all the responses to him too?
I only read posts late last night but one exchange between the two of you gave me a good laugh.
Same. In many ways, I favor conservative viewpoints. However, they need to reflect careful thinking and have a basis in classical liberalism. If you want the government out of the economy, you need to be realistic about what this means. Not just talking points or party-line B.S. Smithers is a joke and he screws up threads. I downloaded Joshua Tree because I barely have time to read this place these days and I can’t be bothered to spend time reading stupdity.
Any opinion different from one’s own seems to be unacceptable and should be silenced.
Not all opinions are valid.
That’s your opinion.
Who here, other than Ben Jones (after all, it’s his blog), gets to decide which opinions are valid and which ones aren’t?
My opinion is that the earth is flat. Valid?
“My opinion is that the earth is flat. Valid?”
Every man is entitled to his opinion.
‘after all, it’s his blog’
Hey, I just work here:
‘Controversy is only dreaded by the advocates of error.’
Benjamin Rush
http://www.searchquotes.com/quotation/Controversy_is_only_dreaded_by_the_advocates_of_error/221841/
People do not seem to realize that their opinion of the world is also a confession of character.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
Since it appears I missed some good debate, I’m off to read yesterday’s posts.
“Controversy is only dreaded by the advocates of error.”
If you don’t fully understand your opponent’s position, then you don’t understand your own.
I live in the liberal bubble that is San Francisco, and generally would have to travel at least an hour away to find someone who has opinions like Smithers, so I find it pretty interesting.
People like him are mostly theoretical, to me.
“People like him are mostly theoretical, to me.”
They were to us too, until we moved from SF to the Central Coast. While they are theoretical creatures to you, we interact with them on a daily basis. It’s quite jarring to hear some of these opinions in person and although I do defend their right to have their opinions, it doesn’t make hearing them any more pleasant (or any more true!).
People like him are mostly theoretical, to me.
+1 for telling the truth…
Warning: Your post has been determined to be unacceptable and without merit and is subject to being reported to the Opinion Police.
Oh Noooooooo you dont know how many times I’ve been sent to the principal’s office for unacceptable thoughts….
But then most of them were just way ahead of their time.. So i keep doing it.
I don’t mind intelligently-expressed opinions. Smithers is dumb. I have limited time and will entertain interesting, thoughtful comments of any stripe but yield no time to dimwitted cliches and soundbites.
Oh puh-leaze! The guy is a bonafide @zz.
So, if you don’t like the posts you attack the poster?
Groupthink gets spawned from such action.
I don’t like the poster. He’s a jingoistic lackwit.
That wasn’t an attack, but rather an objective description.
If you go to yesterday’s bits bucket, you will find an exhaustive effort I made to shoot down one of the many strawmen Eddie shared with us yesterday (the one about how stocks did so much better than bonds over the past four years).
Nobody pays me to suffer fools.
Just top off my head I see camp Banana is outnumbered and outfoxed by camp Alpha any time of the day in this blog.
Right - Banana, Smitty, Lip
Left - Alpha, Ahansen, Rio, Turkey, Highway, Oxide, Polly, Slim, Colorado, Professor, GSFixr, sfrenter
Left? Just goes to show how out of touch everyone is.
I’m a moderate, but to the left and the right I’m either one or the other, I just happen to hate the right more these days mainly because of this:
WASHINGTON | Tue Sep 28, 2010 2:30pm EDT
(Reuters) - Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic bill on Tuesday to end tax deductions enjoyed by companies that close their U.S. plants and move overseas.
With a largely party-line vote of 53-45, Democrats failed to muster the 60 votes needed to clear a Republican procedural hurdle against the measure, which would also give employers a tax break to hire new U.S. workers.
Left - Alpha, Ahansen, Rio, Turkey, Highway, Oxide, Polly, Slim, Colorado, Professor, GSFixr, sfrenter
Yup, that’s me, all right! Over there on the left wing of the airplane.
You hate the right because they opposed the bill? What else was in the bill or was it a stand alone issue? Hate is a mighty big word, unless we are talking political correctness and then I guess it’s ok by some. One thing for sure, the longer this financial mess lingers the more hostilities rise to the top and certain segments of the population decide only they and that part of the government they support know what’s best for the rest.
Left? Just goes to show how out of touch everyone is.
Don’t go by me. That was just my observation based on my own bias. I have been trying hard to get this left vs right or dems vs repubs phoney debates completely out of my system.
I completely agree with Harry Connick Jr Community College Graduate’s view of the imbalance on this blog. It didn’t use to be that way. I like the debate, and it’s in danger of getting a bit one-sided. I woudl hate to see Smithers go.
I’m a moderate, but to the left and the right I’m either one or the other
Same here. I would never pass as a “leftie” due to my views on abortion and other social issues. To them I’m a right winger.
But because I don’t lick the boots of the super rich, and because of that I’m considered a left winger.
I have to bite my tongue every time I talk to my parents, I’ve moved so far right from my family. I’d be an MA/NY style Rockefeller republican now if there were any of them around. Republicans used to understand that businesses can’t function without infrastructure including an educated workforce. Did anyone else hear the report this morning about e-businesses in India trying to function when they can only get a few hours of electricity a day?
Republicans used to understand that businesses can’t function without infrastructure including an educated workforce.
Somewhere along the line, the Republican party went off the deep end. My grandfather was a lifelong New England/Rockefeller Republican- he wouldn’t recognize the party today. And wouldn’t vote for it. He voted for fiscal prudence, and that’s actually the domain of the Democrats nowadays. They’re the ones who run surpluses. Republicans just give out unaffordable tax breaks to the super-rich in the hope of destroying the system.
Nobody pays me to suffer fools.
You get paid to post here? Hey Ben, where’s my cut?
Y’all missed the most important word!!!
OUTFOXED
“Left”….
Moi ? An old fashioned Eisenhower Republican?
The “American Way” is to come up with solutions for problems.
The new “Republimentalist” party:
A): Can’t take ideological blinders off long enough to see the problems
B): Because of A), generates half baked solutions.
Example: Economy sucks, because everyone in the lowest 90% of the income range are seeing pay freezes/cuts/no paycheck at all, while being charged inflated prices for essentials.
The Repub solution is to hand even more money to the top 10%ers. To “invest”. In China.
My grandfather was a lifelong New England/Rockefeller Republican- he wouldn’t recognize the party today.
Heck, I don’t recognize it anymore, and I was a registered Republican for over 20 years. I voted for Reagan, Bush Sr. and even W in 2000.
Moi ? An old fashioned Eisenhower Republican?”
Because we fail the “purity test”.
The Repub solution is to hand even more money to the top 10%ers. To “invest”. In China.
That isn’t an act of cluelessness, it’s intentional.
Crack me up, Harry. Pro-gun rights, Bible quoting, audit the Fed, let the market go to ground, require a high school equivalency and two years of service for citizenship, pro H-1B, anti-teen mother, globalist, anti-MIC, pension-reforming little old leftist me.
Yep. You nailed it.
As for blithers, his postings are so formulaic and predictable that I find them an invaluable time-saver. No need to monitor Fox, Clear Channel, RNCtea, et al because he does it for us and sends us a daily summery to boot. Refuting his nonsense with actual facts (not opinions) keeps our minds sharp and our information current. So I thank him for his service.
Thanks, Smithers! Now, on your knees so I can use your back for my mid-morning tea tray. And while you’re down there my new Louboutins could use a good cleaning….
-xox Ms. Burns
Heck, I don’t recognize it anymore, and I was a registered Republican for over 20 years. I voted for Reagan, Bush Sr. and even W in 2000.
______________________
So you voted for Reagan but won’t vote for Romney - the guy who in 2002 described himself as a progressive - because he’s too radical.
Makes sense.
Crack me up, Harry. Pro-gun rights, Bible quoting, audit the Fed, let the market go to ground, require a high school equivalency and two years of service for citizenship, pro H-1B, anti-teen mother, globalist, anti-MIC, pension-reforming little old leftist me.
May be I misjudged you. I must have formed my opinions based on your relentless support for government health care. I suppose the government taking over 20% of the economy is a small potato compared to you being anti-teen mother, right?
What is anti-teen mother anyway? Do you hate all teen moms?
While at it, what’s your view on single moms?
By the way Colorado, how do you feel about the Democrat party’s changes? From “ask what you can do for your country” to “free shit for everyone” in 50 years.
“So, if you don’t like the posts you attack the poster?”
This does happen on this blog and that’s unfortunate, but I think that’s a simplification of what’s happening here. When someone absolutely refuses to address the points being made or answer very logical questions, but instead throws extremist rhetoric at every argument it does start to get tiresome.
The extremist (both right and left) are almost rabid in their desire to ram their opinions down other’s throats. And when they simply parrot a worn argument without addressing any new information or input they add nothing to the debate except a lot of useless hot air. And they destroy the level of meaningful discourse here.
How many times was “commie,” “leftist,” “fascist,” used yesterday? And towards people most of us know have many centralist and moderate views? Even above people are being identified as left or right without the realization that most of us are in the middle on a lot of issues. (Or have some traditionally conservative views and some liberal as In Colorado pointed out.)
Having a strong right-wing or left-wing orientation is not a bad thing. We need a variety of voices on this blog to truly analyze tough situations (and there are no easy solutions no matter how much one might wish Rush or Jesse had all the answers.) But when debate simply descends into name calling and a viral hatred for those with different life experiences and viewpoints we are not going to come up with, much less implement, any solutions.
I come here because it’s a group of bright, concerned, mostly American people who are concerned about the way the nation is headed. (Also people who saw a problem when I did and kept me sane when everyone wanted to label me a nut job.) There’s enough brain power to come up with some realistic ideas and possible changes. And maybe we can’t change everything, but we can certainly try to change something.
Seriously folks, if the smart people here can’t debate ideas/solutions without delving into name-calling or rabid hatred, what hope does the rest of America have?
I come here because it’s a group of bright, concerned, mostly American people who are concerned about the way the nation is headed. (Also people who saw a problem when I did and kept me sane when everyone wanted to label me a nut job.) There’s enough brain power to come up with some realistic ideas and possible changes. And maybe we can’t change everything, but we can certainly try to change something.
I’m here for the same reason.
Harry,
“… I suppose the government taking over 20% of the economy is a small potato compared to you being anti-teen mother, right…?”
Actually, all things considered, they’re part and parcel of the problem. Although I’ll challenge your 20% figure, I am above all a pragmatist, and our public health care system is broken.
It would be cheaper in the long run (if not the short and transitional runs) to convert our chaotic, fraud-ridden and hugely-inefficient multi-layered insurance/pharmaceutical-industry-corporate-welfare system to a single-payer public health system that covers our nation’s myriad public health issues; including also the training of its personnel, facilities maintenance, research and development entities, and outreach clinics (including a vastly-expanded end-of-life and hospice network). I’ll not monopolize Ben’s bandwidth to explain, but suspect you can Google the concept for yourself.
Curiously, our military manages that now, as do most first-world governments. As did the USA up until Richard Nixon and his insurance buddies got their hands on our reimbursement system.
The concept of government-run public services isn’t unprecedented in our country. Our postal service handles our routine mails quite successfully (the current financial kerfuffles have to do with a $55B SURPLUS in their pension system more than their day-to-day operating costs). And despite wide-spread cultural difficulties, (again, pension and health-care costs are a huge factor) our public school system still manages to educate the vast majority of our young people and staff our universities to the envy of much of the world.
Not all government-run systems are better managed by private enterprise. Health, education, and military services are among them. Please note, this is not to say there isn’t a place for private medical practices for elective procedures and protocols. But what constitutes “elective” medicine is where we should be directing our national conversation.
Secondly, I”ll admit to not being epidemiologically specific in my categorization of teen moms, (for the aforementioned bandwidth issues) but to clarify:
I do not support paying uneducated, insolvent teenagers (or anyone else, for that matter) to have babies on the public dime. You get what you subsidize. That said, I’d make birth control and abortion services available free and on demand, (via that public health service we were discussing) and subsidize girls who do NOT get pregnant before they finish school. Remove the financial incentive to make bastard children for a living, and people will stop making bastard children for a living.
“…While at it, what’s your view on single moms…?”
I am a single mom. I waited until I was 33 years old and financially solvent before I got pregnant. I got my sons got through college and medical school without student loans and without relying on ancillary public monies other than our educational system. Both of my sisters (an MD and a nurse MBA) are single moms who’ve done the same. Who said I “hated” single moms? I simply don’t support irresponsible and indiscriminate breeding as a career choice.
AMEN, SD Real Estate Bear!
Once again you articulate the soul of this blog and why this disparate family gathers at Ben’s table.
SD Bear,
My lunchtime response to your thoughtful post hasn’t shown up, so let me reiterate with a big “AMEN!”
Thank you for (again) articulating the soul of this online family and reminding us that thoughtful, courteous commentary is why we all gather here at Ben’s table. It’s only right that when un-convivial guests and whacky old aunties and uncles get a bit too boisterous, we’re rightly shunted off to the children’s table until we can learn to behave.
Now please pass the peas….
Now please pass the peas….
And do share the recipe for how the peas were prepared. Because they look delicious.
Well, it’s 105 here today (must be positively HELLISH in Bakersplat) so tonight’s snow pea pods are julienned and served atop a cold poached salmon salad with toasted almonds and a raspberry-mint vinaigrette.
And this is why my idea of forcing them to sit in class 25 hours a week and learn English for their EBT card will work.
I do not support paying uneducated, insolvent teenagers (or anyone else, for that matter) to have babies on the public dime.
zydeco quick clip watch how he plays the accordion…wild
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbuY_8q5gA4
The common explanation for the term Zydeco is that it comes from the Creole saying “Les haricots sont pas salés” meaning “The beans aren’t salty
The English skills of “them” are at least as comprehensible are yours are, dj. And the majority of welfare recipients are white.
But don’t let facts get in the way of your presuppositions. Or can’t you read, either?
“So you voted for Reagan but won’t vote for Romney - the guy who in 2002 described himself as a progressive - because he’s too radical. ”
Reagan and Romney may be similar philosophically. I think the discussion is now less about the candidate and more about what fringe of the party has the power to yank the candidate/president into both rhetoric and action.
Most of them cant speak English or do simple math either.. I know the public school should be doing its job…but with all the stupid political correctness what other choice do you propose?
And the majority of welfare recipients are white.
No need to monitor Fox, Clear Channel, RNCtea, et al because he does it for us and sends us a daily summary to boot.”
It’s a low blow to Faux News to equate their content with Slitherin’s posts.
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-07 06:34:59
Oh puh-leaze! The guy is a bonafide @zz.
I liked your comment yesterday asking who payed him to post all day long.
BTW Who pays you?
Charlie,
Nobody pays me to post here. It is one of a number of volunteer activities I undertake due to a favorable combination of what interests me and what I believe is of use to others.
If it seems like I attack Republicans too much, I apologize; this mainly reflects that several rabidly partisan Republicans who take up lots of HBB bandwidth are complete morons.
There is a difference between not listening (the Joshua Tree Extension) and silencing someone. Smithers is perfectly free to continue posting his rants, just as others are free to not listen to him.
I find them tiresome.
Don’t confuse him with facts.
I know, there is no point. Just like a fundy who believes that the Earth is 6000 years old or a member of the Flat Earth Society, no amount of facts or logic will persuade him.
I will admit that my exodus from the former party of Eisenhower and Lincoln took some time, as the disappointments slowly set in. The biggest of them all were the swelling deficits, and the VP, after all the promises made to be frugal and pay off the debt, told us that “deficits don’t matter”. Then came the endless wars, and the offshoring.
And what finally drove me away was the ever increasing vileness of the candidates. The current batch took this to new heights, as the best they could come up with was a Gordon Gekko clone.
I welcome differing opinions and relish a good discussion. When the opinion is expressed with disdain, it loses me.
More than opinion, I value this blog for the information presented.
Smithers’ posts are often disdainful and of low information content.
HBB seemed a little more conservative a few years ago.
But maybe I just got older. Damn kids get offa my lawn.
See what happens when you become a homeowner?
I’m not a home owner until I have the keys in my pocket.
This week we did indeed lose one source of DP assistance (Federal program/grant called WISH),as their funds ran dry LAST WEEK. It was 15K of free money, and it’s not breaking the deal, but oh well.
Actually, one of the reasons why I did decide to go ahead and buy is because for us, buying in pricey SF requires getting DP assistance, and with the condition of gov’t coffers, it is a real possibility that those funds will not exist in the future.
And not really under any illusion that I will actually be a home owner anytime soon. I am renting money from the bank, a situation that will provide us with a little more control and stability than renting shelter from a landlord.
But the amortization schedule calculators are a source of fun for me,and I have no intention of taking 30 years to pay.
I think 30 years to pay is a good thing. What will the dollar be worth 30 years from now? If inflation exceeds the interest rate your real debt is being reduced without any effort by you. I think that is a safe bet over the next thirty years given the printing of money that has already occurred and the fact that we probably will not be the reserve currency much longer.
It doesn’t make any difference that your “real debt” is being reduced when you have to pay it in nominal dollars and your income is stagnant.
But it does matter if the alternative — rent — continues to increase while the PITI is stagnant.
Smithers’ posts are often disdainful and of low information content.
That’s what bothers me too. You can disagree with someone without being disagreeable.
I like to think of how Olympiagal would do it. She’d say “Now look, smartypants,” then go off on one of her delightful romps through the English language.
That gal was beloved here. I miss her mucho.
She certainly had a knack for making me smile.
I find Smithers to be willing to engage rather than disdainful. Perhaps you can give some examples?
dis·dain/disˈdān/
Noun:
The feeling that someone or something is unworthy of one’s consideration or respect; contempt.
Verb:
Consider to be unworthy of one’s consideration.
Synonyms:
noun. contempt - scorn - disregard
verb. despise - scorn - contemn - slight - misprize - disregard
CT–
Without commenting on the accuracy or veracity of his posts, here are a few examples of Smithers’ “disain” from just yesterday alone…
-You do realize
-Priceless.
-People like you
-found the next messiah…Awesome!!
-And you people wonder why nobody takes Ron Paul seriously.
-Didn’t you get the memo
-Day after day, people here moan and whine
-You need to get out a little more
-Shocker!!
-Nice try.
-You’re not very sharp.
-That’s pure BS.
-By your ridiculous comment
-you’re beyond help
-BRILLIANT!!
-Typical leftist thinking
-yeah that’s the ticket.
-You know so little
“I find Smithers to be willing to engage rather than disdainful. Perhaps you can give some examples?”
Wow. Your reading comprehension is nonexistent.
“I find Smithers to be willing to engage rather than disdainful. Perhaps you can give some examples?”
Wow. Your reading comprehension is nonexistent.
It’s even more than reading comprehension imo. CharlieTango asking a question such as that, in the face of the reality of Smither’s disdainful posts (as shown by ahansen’s many examples) is a classic example of someone’s dogmatic politics overly clouding their reality.
I think I would recognize Smither’s disdain for other posters and his worn talking points even if I were the chairman of the RNC or the NRA.
There was a lot of stupidity written which I had to refute.
In your fantasy world…
…there is a silent audience that cheers whenever he starts a post with “LOL, you liberals…”
It’s “librul” or “libtard”. Get it straight.
That “stupidity” could be better refuted with civility. You made several good points and provided some interesting information yesterday, yet it was lost in your heavy-handed responses.
Personally, I enjoy your posts, Smithers, and as noted above, think you add a needed counterpoint. But your stylistic blunders make me cringe for you sometimes. You can give us better than this, can’t you?
Do it for the children!
Pax,
a
I challenge you to refute it without resorting to sarcasm or personal attacks or putdowns.
not sure what’s a sign of more enthusiasm…the fact that he posted 59 times…or that you counted them.
We didn’t count them, the browser search function did.
Careful… if you just searched for “Smithers,” then you counted everybody else using his name to address him too, i.w. overcount.
I just searched for “Comment by Mr. Smithers” and got 56 matches.
Good point, 56 was only 15.2% of yesterday’s posts. Any more than that could be perceived as excessive.
I propose that Mr. Smithers is a repressed or closeted gay man, a la ex Senator Larry Craig or any of the other far-right whackos who hang out in men’s bathrooms when they think no one is looking.
How else to explain his Simpson’s moniker?
The poster in not just locked in the closet, he’s hogtied in a latex bodysuit with only a water bowl and kibbles to keep him company.
Maybe we should change his name to “The Gimp”……
Every time I see “Mr. Smithers” I think of the Simpsons episode where Lisa sees Mr. Smithers’ computer boot up and a toweled Mr. Burns appears on screen saying,
“Smithers… you’re… quite good…at… turning…me…on.”
I just assumed that’s what he was going for.
How else to explain his Simpson’s moniker?
Because like his namesake, he likes to lick boot?
“The poster in not just locked in the closet, he’s hogtied in a latex bodysuit with only a water bowl and kibbles to keep him company.” Great stuff AHansen. Very mature! You should run for political office! Lots of deep thought and analysis on your side. I bet you used your high-end, fancy liberal arts degree to come up with this zinger. Somehow you’re too sick and twisted in the head to realize the hypocritical hater you are, though. Where’s your tolerance and understanding for the other?
“Maybe we should change his name to “The Gimp”” Wonderfully funny! Look at all the tolerance it shows, too! How ironic to find the left making fun of somebody; calling somebody names. I thought only people on the right were name calling haterz?
“I propose that Mr. Smithers is a repressed or closeted gay man, a la ex Senator Larry Craig or any of the other far-right whackos who hang out in men’s bathrooms when they think no one is looking.” What are you I wonder? A leftist, name-calling, hypocritical wacko too blind to see that his pot is as black as his kettle?
I propose that you’re sick, hypocritical leftists - opened up to diversity as long as it’s diversity as you see fit. Decrying the right as name-calling haters, while handing out invective yourselves and thinking nothing of it. Loving everything you agree with, hating everything else. Gay marriage? Awesome, great! Look at how tolerant we are to others’ beliefs. Polygamy? Why absolutely not! The horror! Disgustipatin’! Inbred neanderthals. Abortion? All for it. Kill ‘em all, it’s just tissue. Keep your hands off of my body. Capital punishment? Oh no. No way. That’s cruel and unusual. We must not harm a soul. Only right wing wackos could think of a thing like that. This is the modern, enlightened age - we can’t kill people.
No worries, I know that in your twisted mind, twisted ideas seem straight, and straight ideas seem twisted. You’re unreachable. It’s all good.
Not only was that authentic frontier gibberish, but Gabby Johnson is right!
Reverend!!!
I can see and live with my inconsistent beliefs, as must any thinking person.
Yes, I am pro-animal rights and I love a good hamburger.
I am pro-choice and against the death penalty.
I hate car culture and what the internal combustion engine has done to the environment, but we own 2 cars and drive daily.
Etc., etc.
I DO have a problem with people who believe that all their beliefs and actions are compatible and cannot understand that most of life is lived in the gray areas.
Damn. That was a thing of beauty!
Now give that poor boy his Thorazine
…and another helping of kibbles.
Who pays guys like that to waylay the HBB with so many insipid posts?
I still don’t know if there’s any truth to the urban legend that conservative interns are paid to troll the internet with talking points and revisionist history. (couldn’t find anything on snopes.) If so, they got the idea from George Orwell.
It’s true. I’m paid by the Koch brothers and I work out of Area 51 in between shifts for my other job, painting helicopters black for the forthcoming UN invasion. Ron Paul is the only man who can stop it.
Given the continuous and well-documented astroturfing of the Koch bros, I would be extremely surprised if they didn’t pay people to troll.
But I don’t think they’d pay Smithers, because his style doesn’t win any converts. He’s just a repeater of talking points he’s read elsewhere.
It would be far more effective to pay someone who presents themselves as apolitical and a ‘common sense’ type, who never overtly cheers one side, but subtly sways everything in that direction. In other words, they’re supposedly apolitical and ‘above it all’, but every political point they make favors one side. That’s how a pro astroturfs.
the revelation of alien colonization of December 22, 2012
someone who presents themselves as apolitical and a ‘common sense’ type, who never overtly cheers one side, but subtly sways everything in that direction.
Anyone that smart and nuanced is not going to waste his time making peanut pay to extract a few votes from little ol’ HBB. Such folks are the ones at Golden Sacks making a killing off of OPM.
Anyone that smart and nuanced is not going to waste his time making peanut pay
Oh, I’d say any half-decent used car salesman could master it.
It’s not hard, you just always support one side of any argument, but never openly cheer a political party, and every once in a while establish your bona fides by saying both parties are the same, and such.
They are revealed by the consistency of their support for one side only, despite their claims of there being ‘no difference’ between the two parties.
And who says it’s peanut pay? The Oligarchs aren’t short of money, that’s for sure.
Blogs like this are the seedbed of ideas. It is precisely where the hacks are directed to post.
Ben, how many hits per day does HBB get?
I lived in Wichita for 20 years. HQ of Koch.
Lets just say that they are insular/parochial. Worshipping at the Church of the Blessed Greenback. The only people they hire are the true believers.
And who says it’s peanut pay? The Oligarchs aren’t short of money, that’s for sure.
Because peanut pay with no benefits is the reason they aren’t short of money. Isn’t peanut pay the whole point behind offshoring?
Don’t know about conservatives paying interns to troll the internet, but I know for a fact Obama camp had started a truth squad. Basically paid interns to troll the internet, talk radios, etc. Many of you prolly think Obama is wise to have done so. Not just the other camp, right?
Maybe Eddie actually works for Obama, and the conservative blather is just an act to hide his real identity?
i think all of our extremely partisan posters are the same person…ala john locke and demosthenes in “Ender’s Game”.
The “Obama camp” can’t even get its act together enough to ask for volunteers to do voter registration in VA more than three days before the weekend they want the help. I told them they needed to give a few weeks notice and then do a follow up the week before and then a day or two before, but no change so far. Seriously, this is not the hallmark of a good ground game.
the biggest sign to me that obama has no clue when it comes to the economy is that he still wants to be president.
the biggest sign to me that obama has no clue when it comes to the economy is that he still wants to be president.”
I always thought he should have demanded a recount the day he was eleted.
The “Obama camp” can’t even get its act together enough to ask for volunteers to do voter registration in VA more than three days before the weekend they want the help. I told them they needed to give a few weeks notice and then do a follow up the week before and then a day or two before, but no change so far. Seriously, this is not the hallmark of a good ground game.
Agreed. And it was last Friday when I was talking to a long-time acquaintance who tried to donate money to the Obama campaign. He couldn’t get the website to cooperate and even saved screenshots showing the problem.
He reported the problem to the Obama campaign people, and they didn’t seem to have the slightest interest in resolving the problem.
Not very difficult people….Just scroll past his post….
It can at times require a great deal of willpower.
You don’t have to pay a guy like that. He sits at his boring job all day, listening to angry radio, then gets on the internet when he feels sad about his insignificance. He just wants a little attention is all.
Hope Smithers clicks on ads so Ben gets at least a minor contribution for suffering through Smithers’ incessant blathering.
So what do we know about Smithers?
1. he lives in Massachussets
2. he idolizes “job creators”
Does anyone know if Mitt Romney was accounted for last night? Posting on HBB has got to be easier than fabricating an acceptable tax return.
The bit about a living in 3 family home is a red herring. He really means his family has 3 homes.
Arthur Laffer: The Real ‘Stimulus’ Record
It worked miserably, as indicated by the table nearby, which shows increases in government spending from 2007 to 2009 and subsequent changes in GDP growth rates.
The four nations—Estonia, Ireland, the Slovak Republic and Finland—with the biggest stimulus programs had the steepest declines in growth. The United States was no different, with greater spending (up 7.3%) followed by far lower growth rates (down 8.4%).
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444873204577537244225685010.html#articleTabs%3Darticle
Check out the table on this page. It appears as though there’s an inverse relationship between Govnmt Spending and GDP. Hmmm, I wonder why?
Wasn’t Estonia recently being held up as an example of the positive gains of an austerity program?
The chart is talking about the 3 years starting in 2006, so maybe they’ve changed.
Estonia and Latvia: Europe’s champions of austerity
Josephine Moulds
guardian.co.uk, Fri 8 Jun 2012 14.12 BST
They are hailed as the new poster children for austerity. In Estonia, civil servants took a 10% pay cut and ministers saw 20% shaved from their salaries. The government raised the pension age, cut job protection and made it harder to claim health benefits. Latvia’s government sacked 30% of public sector staff and slashed salaries by 40%. Both introduced new taxes and raised existing ones.
http://m.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/08/estonia-latvia-eurozone-champions-austerity?cat=world&type=article
Thanks, Steve.
So raising taxes works!
Laffer’s plan failed 30 years ago, and the U.S. is bankrupt. Why do people still quote him?
No consequences for failure. The mark of success is celebrity.
So you think that the Laffer plan is the cause of our problems?
The chart seems to indicate that Keynesian’s methods don’t work too well either.
The chart seems to indicate that Keynesian’s methods don’t work too well either.
If you swallow the MSM propaganda that monetarism is Keynesian- which it isn’t.
But at least by saying ‘either’ you admit that Laffer’s trickle-down theory isn’t working any better than monetarism is.
Keynes’ theories have yet to be tried, for the most part.
I think the problem is that both ideas were mis-applied. Sure, there’s some point where raising taxes decreases revenue, and there’s a curve that point lies on. If you get the shape of the curve wrong, you’re gonna have problems.
Same deal with Keynsianism. You’re supposed to borrow to get you through bad times, and pay down the debt and save during good times. Our leaders just kept right on borrowing through the good times, leaving us where we are now.
It’s a poor craftsman that blames his tools.
Check out the table on this page.
You should. Once you do, you see that Laffer’s assertions don’t hold up. First of all, he uses percent of GDP of government spending as a stand in for ’stimulus’. So as a country’s GDP goes down in a bust, then it’s spending as percent of GDP will go up, even if it spends no more actual dollars than it did before the bust.
Second, if his assertion that such ’stimulus’ is detrimental to recovery is correct, then by his logic lack of government stimulus should be beneficial. But let’s look at those countries with little or no increase in gov spending as percent of GDP:
Korea’s gov spending is up only 1.1%. Their change in real GDP growth’? DOWN 7.7%.
Switzerland is actually spending less- they’re down .2% How is their GDP change? DOWN 7.1%
Israel has also tightened up, they’re spending is down .9% How is their economy booming from this? It’s DOWN 6.2%
Hungary has only increased spending .7% Their reward? DOWN 9.9%
Yep Art Laffer proved how great austerity works with that chart! Not.
The stimulus has worked perfectly. It has produced a massive stock market bubble, resulting in more deliciou$ profit$ for Megabank, Inc.
People with an agenda can make #’s say anything. The response to that article.
It’s important to remember what the denominator is doing.
Now, there are multiple problems with this starting with the following: Laffer’s description of the first number is ambiguous to the point of incomprehension. Does Laffer mean to say that he is subtracting the 2007 ratio of government spending to GDP in each country from the same ratio in 2009? Or, does he mean that he is subtracting total government spending in each country in 2007 from total government spending in 2009, and expressing that difference as a percentage of GDP in that country in 2007. Which calculation he is performing makes a big difference. Suppose Estonia — Laffer’s poster child for Keynesian stimulus — kept spending unchanged between 2007 and 2009, but GDP contracted by one-third. If Laffer is calculating his first number by the first method, he comes up with an increase in government spending as a percentage of GDP of 33%, even though government spending did not change. That is just perverse. So how did Laffer perform his calculation? He doesn’t say. All he does is cite the IMF as the source for his table. Thanks a lot, Art; that was really helpful, but unfortunately, not helpful enough to figure out what you are talking about.
uneasymoney.com/2012/08/06/arthur-laffer-anti-enlightenment-economist/
Everyone should remember that this passes for journalism and commentary now. Seriously how can someone with a brain make this kind of mistake. The answer is that this was not a mistake. It is an attempt to persuade the lazy and the incompetent into viewing stimulus as bad.
Note you can make an arguement about this but his arguement is a lie.
Polly was correct when she said not long ago their side was holding up Ireland and Estonia as examples of countries that were eschewing Keynesian economics.
This is the kind of thing that Paul Krugman does a very good job of refuting. He said on his blog that he is on vacation and will have limited or no access to the internet, so I expect people who want to do this sort of revisioninst economics to be out in force for the rest of August.
Paul Krugman? The guy who predicted a recession for 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, while GDP growth was in the 3-4% range the every year.
That Paul Krugman?
LOL.
“…so I expect people who want to do this sort of revisioninst economics to be out in force for the rest of August.”
“That Paul Krugman?
LOL.”
Right on cue.
By the way, Eddie, how much dough have you lost so far on those money-losing Atlanta real estate investments?
Does he get paid per word or per post?
I’m of the mind that he’s getting paid by the post. And, man, the guy needs to expand his repertoire.
Paid per post by the FRB proxies and their party duopoly.
Clearly he works for the Republicans. The Democrats are often annoying but seldom stupid.
LOL. You’re one of these “both parties suck” types who mysteriously supports all things Democrats and opposes all things Republican. In other words a Ron Paul supporter. And you wonder why nobody takes your guy seriously.
‘In other words a Ron Paul supporter.’
Who do you support? Is it Romney? Cuz if so you’ve got an election coming up and you are still going on about Ron Paul? Why is that?
Anyway, Romney doesn’t need the Paul voters. He’s poised to smash the Democrats in November, huh? So feel free to alienate voters all the way to November. That’s a winning strategy.
“So feel free to alienate voters all the way to November. That’s a winning strategy.”
In my case, mission accomplished. The neos (neocon, neolibs) have done a fine job of hijacking both parties.
Looking forward to crushing Romney’s hopes and dreams this November.
Now, if only I could find a way to wipe that smirk off Kristol’s face.
“The Democrats are often annoying but seldom stupid.”
No, just evil. That’s why the Dems are the evil party and the Pubs the stupid party.
Evil and stupid usually travel together.
Evil and stupid usually travel together
Stupidity is the servant of evil.
“Looking forward to crushing Romney’s hopes and dreams this November.”
Another Ron Paul fan shows his true colors.
“…Dems are the evil party and the Pubs the stupid party…”
Politics breeds strange bedfellows.
“Looking forward to crushing Romney’s hopes and dreams this November.”
Another Ron Paul fan shows his true colors.”
ha-ha, YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!
Maybe he’s paid per convert?
Oh Dear I do hope not; if that’s the case I’ll need to start preparing a food parcel for the poor starving mite.
I dunno about the rest of you, but I’m trying really hard to care about the Olympics. And I just can’t.
Oh, I do have one exception, and that would be Jerome Singleton (Go Blue!) in the Paralympics. I hope he kicks some major butt and brings home the gold!
I got tired of the endless six-packs on Day 2.
And that’s from womyn only. May be that’s why I am loving it.
Interestingly enough most male athletes actually cover their abs……
I haven’t seen too much ab covering in the boxing ring. Or in the swimming pool. And don’t get me started on those swimmer guys’ bodies (Slim swoons). Just don’t.
So you missed all the swimming?
And until this year, bikinis for women’s beach volley ball were required.
Who watches swimming in Olympics? Seriously.
It’s all Track and Field for me.
It’s all Track and Field for me.
I like beach volleyball the best, but it’s all pretty interesting.
Overall, I’m enjoying these Olympics about as much as any, maybe a little more. They’ll never be as exciting as they were in my youth, when we were more starved for entertainment, in the pre-cable, pre-internet, olden days of middle earth.
I also like that they’re not being held by an authoritarian regime.
Nothing will ever compare to that next to last hockey game in 1980.
What are these “Olympics” of which you speak?
Living in Flyover, and watching 30 years of crappy pro football and baseball has a tendancy to kill your interest in “sports”.
Besides, to borrow a line of thinking from NASCAR legend Curtis Turner, some things are like maturbation…….more fun to participate in, than to watch.
Check out the recent pictures of male cyclist’s quads. Quadzilla scary.
Back when I was biking around the country, I had legs sorta like that too.
Not so much now, although they’re still pretty strong. It’s the knees that are the weak point. I really have to baby my knees and have had to do so since my mid-30s.
Aye, the knees! So true. I seem to be largely cured of knee issues while riding but need simultaneous weight training (leg extensions, etc) to keep things strong.
We took a one hour detour to find a knee brace for my wife during the recent STP ride. Her knee had given her some trouble in the past but training rides of 50+ miles had seemingly solved it. Turns out she hadn’t been using her big chain ring as much as suspected during training and 20 miles into a 204 mile ride, after using the larger ring a little more extensively, her knee said I don’t think so. Coincidentally, we happened upon a guy at the next rest stop who was raving about his knee band.
Next year her “trainer” will be much more observant. On the other hand, those knee bands are miracle workers.
“Check out the recent pictures of male cyclist’s quads. Quadzilla scary.”
Yeah, but I’d still rather be 6′0″ 230 lbs. than 6′3″ 153 lbs., especially with those sideburns!
OK, 6′0″ 219 lbs. would be far better. That damned power/weight ratio kills this super-Clydesdale on the hills ever time.
204 miles?? We’ll see whether I can make a mere 60 miler on Friday. Hunting season opens the next day, so I’ll be taking it slowly!
I avoid them because I’m tired of the Inspiring Personal Stories of Uplift and Redemption.
It’s all hype…everything is.
Ugh! That is also why I don’t watch. Just show us the blasted events, and spare us the sob stories, like that his grannie died a week before the games, etc.
like that his grannie died a week before the games
How would you know about that, unless you watched?
Ditto… I’d rather they fill the time by showing the performances from more athletes from other countries. Like, show us the 20th ranked gymnasts for comparison. For some reason they did this with diving but few other sports.
NBC will not stream the Olympic games to foreign countries and the TV coverage is all Brazil here so I’m watching on the internet on one of those gray area sites where you can watch almost all the events if you want. (Not in great quality though) I’m getting a lot of BBC and Canadian TV broadcasts so the perspective is different. Every country’s broadcast is centered on their own country’s athletes.
NBC is to Olympics coverage as Madonna is to singing ability.
A huge and cynical disservice.
And not a word here about Sunday’s “Curiosity” triumph. With JPL defunded to the point of near-extinction by the Obama administration, it’s good to know that the Americans can still stick a landing.
And not a word here about Sunday’s “Curiosity” triumph. With JPL defunded to the point of near-extinction by the Obama administration, it’s good to know that the Americans can still stick a landing.
If I wasn’t such an early to bed gal, I would have gone to the Curiosity landing party down at the SkyBar. Yes, that’s right. An astronomy-themed bar in Tucson, Arizona.
In Tucson, we’re very good at big astronomy parties. Here’s the landing of the Phoenix back in 2008.
They do it with diving because the actual event only takes 2.5 seconds. Also because the “groups” are larger so there are 20 people all grouped together, not just 8.
OWS Olympics style. Don’t show and celebrate the top 1%, show the bottom 10%. Actually better yet let’s not even keep score anymore. All athletes get a gold medal for showing up.
OWS Olympics style…..All athletes get a gold medal for showing up.
That would not be fair to athlete top producers. A medal awards system based on the total dollars of corporate sponsorship per athlete might work though.
Any tie-breaker would be based on how well each athlete is able to shelter his corporate sponsorship income from taxes in the country he is proud to represent.
Extra points would be awarded when the athlete evades his country’s taxes by opening offshore bank accounts in the countries he is competing against.
Just don’t watch NBC and Bob Costas. Watch it on-line; no sob stories, no hype, much better.
Only if you have cable that has MSNBC and CNBC. Not even basic cable gets you access.
I am moved every time I see someone with a disability competing in an athletic event.
I’ve done triathlons where guys with no legs pass me on the bike. Awesome. Blind people running in marathons (with a guide).
So inspiring.
Here’s a friend of the Slim family. Double amputee running in the Marine Corps Marathon.
He’s now doing triathlons.
Here’s a friend of the Slim family. Double amputee running in the Marine Corps Marathon.
Fantastic!
I did the Seattle-to-Portland bike ride 3 weeks ago. There are often several paraplegic riders completing the ride and they are amazing to watch. No matter the incline or decline they just keep pumping…for 204 miles.
Ah, I didn’t get the reference to STP above. How did the ride go? All in one day, double century style, or did you rest?
Went well, but much slower after the injury so our finishing times suffered, but we didn’t do it to race. Some people do it in one day, but I’ve only done it in two. There is a camping site midway for the 2-day riders.
Sorry to hear about the injury. I’ve been icing my knees and spinning a lot more as I get older.
Two days sounds better than one, but I dunno if I’d want to sleep on the ground after 100 miles (doing my first century in October). Then again, the wife just chose the ultra firm mattress and it sure feels like the ground!
Nagelbett, anyone?
Opposite for us. We both had the REI 3.5″ air mattress. When I tried it at the store I was a bit surprised how good it felt. And after a full night sleeping on it, I was shocked to admit that it felt similar in comfort to our foam mattress at home. Slept very well.
I suspect the bike fit I got a month beforehand played a strong role as well. Very little upper body soreness this time around.
Yesterday, one thread was about whether people are paying “triple” the cost of the house when they use a mortgage, even 40 years. I ran some amort numbers on a $400K house and the answer is: only if the interest rates are 1970’s high.
Ben answered, legitimately, that those high interest rates meant that actual prices are much lower, around $40K. Ben, I wasn’t questioning the pricing. I was questioning the old saw that someone pays “triple” the house price. I’m familiar with the saying; my parents told it to me when I was a young pup in the 70’s. I ran a couple more amort numbers on one of Ben’s $40K houses.
Scenario 1, 2012: $40,000K price, $0 down, 40-year mortgage at 4.5%:
Principle $40,000, Interest $26,370
You pay 1.66x the actual price of the house.
Scenario 2, 1978: $40,000 price, $8000 down, 30 year mortgage at 12.5%:
Principle $32000, Interest $90,948
You pay 3.07x the actual price of the house.
The 70’s wisdom was true, but only in the 70’s.
Ben’s other point is that a 1970’s buyer could refi the low price to a low interest rate, or pre-pay on that low principle, and woo hoo bonanza pay that sucker off. I don’t disagree. It’s very true, and those who did that did made out very well. Well yes, middle class peaked about 1970. Everyone made out well if they were frugal, and even more so if Mom could bring in a little money when the kids were in school.
But what about present day? “When” interest rates climb back up, house prices will drop so that PITI remains nearly the same. Also very true. Then those with cash (HBB) can snap things up either cash buy or massive down and prepay. But the question is, “when” do you expect those interest rates to go up? And if they do, how far and how fast? It’s not just housing. Businesses and government have calibrated their balance sheets to the low rates. So I expect rates to be very sticky on the way up — imagine the kicking and screaming on CNBC. I expect house prices to be even stickier on the way down. My decision was that it wasn’t worth paying rent during the wait.
Oops, sorry, I mistyped. Scenario 1 above is for a 30-year mortgage, not 40. Let me cal the 40 year:
Scenario 1a: $40,000K price, $0 down, 40-year mortgage at 4.5%:
Principle: $40,000, Interest $46,316
You pay 2.16 the actual price of the house.
For reference, for a $400,000 house, 40 years at 4.55 you pay 2.02 the price of the house. Clearly interest rate is driving this metric.
The “old saw” was that you would pay double, not triple, IIRC. Normal interest rates, not 70s.
It’s a very good question; when will interest rates go up. Very good question.
Interest rates are low because we are in deflation. How long will that last? Biggest expansion of credit in history seems to be taking a while to correct.
The simple spreadsheet approach does not take into account the changing value of the money. Over the last 40 years, paying double, but decades later, was a great deal (if you were earning a wage). Going forward, maybe not so.
Hmmm, you’re right, at “normal” interest rates.
I bumped up to a late 80’s house: (I’m just guessing on the numbers):
$150K house, $30K down (20%), 7.75% interest, 30-year.
Principle $120,000 Interest $189,490.
You pay 2.06x the price of the house <– there it is, double.
Blue, it’s very hard to base comparison on inflation, deflation, changing value of money etc. I believe that what we’re seeing is a fundamental shift in the standard of living. Corporations have figured out that they can raise prices to what the market will bear on needs. The middle class is forced to double up in rentals, move in with mom and dad, take a second job, raid their Sbux/mallrat funds, raid their savings and retirement, all to spend a higher % of our dwindling salaries on needs like housing and health insurance. Credit bubbles can’t cover it any more. No FB dollar will be allowed to escape.
Corporations have figured out that they can raise prices to what the market will bear on needs.
I once thought it would only apply to needs, but certain wants are astoundingly priced as well. For my wants, it’s outdoor equipment. Off-road shoes used to be in the $65-95 range (pre-2007). Now most are double that.
This season I was looking for a new snowboarding jacket to replace my 10 year old version. I ended up buying a $250 jacket for $75 on clearance after the season. But about had a heart attack when I saw some ski jackets for $1200. Seriously, I get that people once climbed mountains in heavy wool overcoats. But how much further can the technology go?
All, of course, are “Imported.” If they weren’t, does that mean I’d have to spend $1500 for that jacket? Ridiculous.
Off-road shoes used to be in the $65-95 range (pre-2007). Now most are double that.
And now, they’re also made in China.
Agreed. That’s what I meant by “imported.” We’ve been sold that in order to have low prices, we need to buy imported goods. Sorry, $125 hiking shoes and $75 shirts are not what I call low prices.
Agreed. That’s what I meant by “imported.” We’ve been sold that in order to have low prices, we need to buy imported goods. Sorry, $125 hiking shoes and $75 shirts are not what I call low prices.
I agree. And I’ve had quite the discussion with a local shoe store owner about the prevalence of imported shoes in her store. Heck, with the prices she charges, she’s making some pretty sweet bank.
A lot of the mark up may be happening before she gets the stuff in her store, especially if she is carrying brand names.
Chinese products of inferior quality, at American prices. These are hellish times.
Silm Polly Buy AMERICAN
sas shoes
http://www.sasshoes.com/
US made? One word. Chippewa.
http://www.chippewa.com
There is no better boot. I get a year out of them. You’ll get 3+.
Current CU rates for new car 2008 up is around 1.5% for five years. It could be a long time before mortgages rise.
Posted: 7:45 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2012
Spain’s king holds crisis talks with union leaders
The Associated Press
MADRID —
King Juan Carlos is to meet with the leaders of Spain’s two main labor unions to discuss the economic crisis battering the country.
General Workers Union leader Candido Mendez said Tuesday the two union bosses intended to convey to the monarch “their enormous concern” for the dire situation facing Spain.
Recession-wracked Spain is fighting to avoid seeking a financial bailout but its problems are mounting daily. Debt is rising and unemployment is near 25 percent.
Mendez told Spanish National Radio that the government’s austerity measures and reforms were making things worse. The unions are calling for a referendum on the government’s policies.
King Juan Carlos is Spain’s head of state and, although he regularly holds talks with the government, he has no direct role in the running of the country.
Copyright The Associated Press
Translation: Your Highness, we’re really PO-ed about what’s happening in this country. And if the gobierno thinks that more austerity is the answer, well, we’re taking to to the streets in larger numbers than we have so far.
Slim adds: You seriously do not want to get Spaniards any more annoyed than they are now. Because when they get mad, they get MAD!
Making things worse for them or the country? I do not know why it is so hard for people to understand that living within your means does mean you have to cut your standard of living if you have been spending more than you are earning. We still have to cut our standard of living, as a country, by 7.6% since that is our deficit per year as a percentage of total GDP.. Since we are now growing at 1.5 % that is going to hurt.
There’s a difference between micro- and macro-economics. If you don’t know this, you shouldn’t post about economics. If you do know this, then you should know better than to give out ‘common sense kitchen table cut our spending cause pa got laid off’ budget BS.
There is a difference but in the end you cannot spend 40% more than you take in either at the micro or macro level and if you do not understand that, while I guess you are are in Obama’s cabinet.
But the idea that a country in a depression should immediately drop its spending to the same percent of GDP as it was before the depression is ridiculous, no? That’s how macro differs from micro.
Doesn’t work that well on the micro level either. When I got laid off, by income went down a lot. I stayed in my apartment and had to pay more for health insurance. Yeah, I cut back on food and dry cleaning and gifts. And my commuting costs went down, but I was paying the same for some stuff and more for others. And I really spent a lot more when I had to start paying for the tuition bills that my employer had covered before. But staying in the area where I had contacts, keeping the insurance and taking more classes meant I got another job.
Plus that whole thing where since I am a person, not an entire economy, my cutting back on discretionary spending didn’t lower my income.
Did I ever say immediately? But what Obama should have done at the beginning of his term is to pass, and he had the Congress, something like Simpson/Bowles to ensure that investors would see the country moving towards a balanced budget. The recession officially ended in the Summer of 2009, cuts could have lead to faster growth. He has not even committed to go back to the same GDP numbers hence the lack of confidence in him by the people that need to invest.
These sophisticated investors see that the kitchen table analogy does apply in the long term. We got away from the basics, saving is important, consumption should not be paid for with debt and hard work is needed. Applies at the kitchen table and at the government level.
to ensure that investors would see the country moving towards a balanced budget
Is that what investors want? Seems to me the markets rally on stimulus, not the lack of it.
since I am a person, not an entire economy, my cutting back on discretionary spending didn’t lower my income.
Exactly. Which is an even more important difference between micro- and macroeconomics.
How exactly does Obama pass Simpson Bowles? How does he get major defense cuts (closing 1/3 of overseas bases), a 15 cent a gallon gas tax, the end of the MID, the end of the tax deduction on health care coverage, and the reduction of Social Security benefits, through Congress? Could anyone?
Polly, what you are saying is you still had to prioritize your spending and pure consumption is what you cut out. Obama at the beginning of his term said he was going to cut the budget deficit by half in his first term. He was going to cut government programs that did not work so he could “invest” in programs that did work. Cutting dry cleaning to invest in an education was wise.
Yes cutting government at the macro level is more challenging because you do cut revenue. Layoff the defense worker and if he is at the 30% tax level your cut is only 70% what you thought. However, once a country reaches a certain debt level, cuts have to be made even when it is not the best time to cut. Obama has maxed out the credit card, austerity is no longer a choice between policies it is a necessity. Greece and Spain waited too long to make their cuts and now are forced to cut at a difficult time. Printing money our present policy steals from the middle class.
The argument that the budget will balance without action also leads to theft from the middle class. It means people with incomes from around $50,000 up will pay the AMT penalty since it was not adjusted for inflation. It is just a backdoor tax rise on the middle class which we were promised would not happen under Obama.
Sleepless, I am not talking about stock market investors. I am talking about people that invest in productive equipment. There has never been more money on the sidelines then now. Government spending has not encouraged investment like Keynes would say would occur, it has discouraged investment.
Alpha. Reagan never had his party in control of the house and only had the Senate for a few years. Yet he passed most of his program. He had to compromise and accept more domestic spending and a greater deficit than he wanted but for the tax cuts and the build up of the military he did it.
Obama had a democratic house by a wide margin and sixty democrats in the senate. He also would have had support of many republicans since simpson/bowles had broad bi-partisan support. Instead, he did pass his program it was the stimulus and Obama care. The latter very unpopular.
Thus he should have easily passed simpson/bowles if he wanted to pass smaller government. However, he does not believe in smaller government. He thought that larger government was going to lead to better recovery than Reagan’s recovery. However, all he proved is that Reagan was right about less government interference with the economy.
“Polly, what you are saying is you still had to prioritize your spending and pure consumption is what you cut out.”
To repeat. I am not an economy. When I cut back on gifts to my family and ate cheaper food, I did not put anyone out of work. My influence was too small. But when the government pulls back spending when the private sector is in a recession, the velocity of money goes way down.
And besides, my over all spending even on consumption probably went up. I didn’t spend that much on discretionary to start with and the extra heat (since I was home during the day) and the COBRA insurance payments were a lot.
“To repeat. I am not an economy. When I cut back on gifts to my family and ate cheaper food, I did not put anyone out of work. My influence was too small”
Everything in economics works at the margin. There is a marginal increase or decrease in revenue that causes an action to occur. You may not have been the marginal lost sale that put someone out of work. But maybe the next lost order was. And without your lost order, that lost order wouldn’t have led to the action.
So yes, every action whether you cutting back $1 in spending or $100,000,000 in spending leads to a counter action somewhere down the chain.
To paraphrase the Army, you are an economy of one. Whether your like it or not.
The typical misrepresentation of Keynes is that government could prevent recessions. Not true; the goal was to lessen the impact. Government doesn’t have to spending power. While government is large enough to have a greater impact than any other single entity, many individuals/businesses making the same decision can produce more significant results.
Apparently, based on what we’re seeing in Greece and Spain, austerity doesn’t work all that well either. However, since it does tend to concentrate the wealth in the hands of a few (who snap it up at bargain prices) then it’s all good,
Austerity doesn’t work in short term. Actually it creates more pain in the short run. In the long run, it gives a hope for an organic, bs free economy.
Stimulus doesn’t work in the long run. You can stimulus for a year or two, but you will have to pay one day. We are living this nightmare right now.
Pick your poison.
The longer the dose is postponed, the stronger it gets.
You can stimulus for a year or two, but you will have to pay one day.
Yeah, that’s how it works. You stimulate when times are bad, and pay it back when times are good. It balances out the economy, prevents major booms and busts, and it worked quite well for half a century.
But if you appoint an Ayn Rand worshiping twit to be Fed chairman, and elect a bunch of ‘give the surplus to the 1%ers as a tax break’ conservatives (ha ha), then it doesn’t work and you get what we have today.
Probably the best argument against Keynesian theory is that the stupidity and greed of today’s right precludes any pay-down of debt and slowing of the economy when times are booming. It’s too easy to demagogue against, and then give the money to their real masters, the 1%. (Who of course benefit greatly from boom/bust economies, unlike the middle class.)
I think it’s impossible to debate with you because you believe the government has unalienable rights to anyone’s income as it sees fit. Many of us don’t believe in this. Since we disagree on such a fundamental point, any discussion downward is just futile.
The government has the right to tax people, it’s in the Constitution.
You are right.
When someone asserts that the government has no right to collect taxes/payments for services provided, we don’t have anything to talk about.
And don’t start with “government used to run on tariffs” blather. We are a “free market” world, remember? government has no right to impose tariff on all of those Chinese and Mexican factory workers.
Now if you want to say government wastes a lot of the tax revenue they generate, THEN we can agree to disagree/argue/discuss the tradeoffs.
Again twisting the words, aren’t we?
I said “as it sees fit.” Nowhere I made the claim that people should not pay for the services the government provides. Just because a person makes more money than the other guy, he doesn’t necessarily use more of the courts/police/roads/firemen/military/air/water. That’s all.
How to debate leftist style
Step 1: When someone says he wants less govt, interpret this to mean he wants NO government
Step 2: When someone says he wants less taxation, interpret this to mean he wants NO taxation.
Step 3: When someone says he wants less money spent on govt run education, interpret this to mean he wants to burn books.
Nowhere I made the claim that people should not pay for the services the government provides.
Well, then who determines what they pay?
Smithers giving a tutorial on straw men. Classic.
How much less should the elite pay. I mean Mitt already pays an effective tax rate that is likely well under 10%. He pays 14% on reported income, but with all those off shore entities and games my guess is he is well under 14%.
“necessarily use more of the courts/police/roads/firemen/military/air/water”
Garbage. How much would it cost to get fire insurance on Mitt Romney’s house with the car elevator if there was no public fire deparment? How much would it cost to get fire insurance on my 1000 square foot apartment in a building with sprinklers if there was no public fire deparment?
Same thing with police protection? How much to protect me with ordinary middle class parents who couldn’t come up with a few $100K if I was kidnapped for ransom? How much for a man who is worth over $200 million?
I get some value out of living in a society where people are educated because when I interact with merchants and service providers, they can do what is asked of them. He gets the benefit of exploiting the public education of all of his employees.
Just because he doesn’t use the actual service more often, doesn’t mean he isn’t get a heck of a lot more value out of it being there.
How much less should the elite pay. I mean Mitt already pays an effective tax rate that is likely well under 10%. He pays 14% on reported income, but with all those off shore entities and games my guess is he is well under 14%.
I have a solution. If Mitt pays less than 14%, why not lower everybody’s income taxes to 10% flat? That way Mitt will still pay higher rate than most of us.
Regardless of what size of government any individual sees as right, Keynsian theory is the way to go. It’s about timing instead of amount of spending. Given the uncertainties of receipts and expenditures (budgets are educated guesses at best), I think the best approach is to aim low with the anticipation of small surpluses most years. When the inevitable dowturn comes there will be reserves that could be used to maintain spending.
This could be written into law, where the budget must be based on actual receipts from 3 or so years earlier. During a dowturn spending could be maintained or even increased using the reserve. In a normal growing economy this should work well. If we get a Japan style couple of decades this plan would be useless.
Why not tax capital gains and dividends above 250k as income, and tax all CEO and Hedge Fund income benefits as wages instead of capital gains and dividends.
To lower eveyones tax rate to 10% All we have to do is get rid of the military so maybe you are on to something.
This could be written into law, where the budget must be based on actual receipts from 3 or so years earlier. During a dowturn spending could be maintained or even increased using the reserve.
Good idea but it causes a philosophical dilemma for many on the right. Although they are self-professed “fiscal conservatives” many on the right would not accept a system that develops reserves because to them it would mean “taxes are too high” while at the same time the concept of a reserve is fiscally conservative.
“I have a solution. If Mitt pays less than 14%, why not lower everybody’s income taxes to 10% flat? That way Mitt will still pay higher rate than most of us.”
The left doesn’t care that Mitt pays more than “the working man”. The left just wants to punish Mitt for being rich. Doesn’t matter if his tax rate was 99% and everyone else’s was 1%. They’d still be bitching that it’s not 100%.
Part of the reason I like this plan in spite of the difficulties getting buy in, is because there really is no other viable option* in the long run. Educating people to see that eternal deficits will create the situation we are in right now is the first step. Seems like the main resistance to such a plan is based on people being used to getting more than they payed for.
* Okay, I have one other idea but it is inferior I believe. You aim taxes high and then after the dust has settled give rebates. If taxes did end up being low, then future rebates would not be given until the balance is settled.
The left doesn’t care that Mitt pays more than “the working man”.
True.
The left just wants to punish Mitt for being rich.
Taxes are not “punishment”. Cities don’t levy taxes to “punish”. Taxes are to raise revenue. The “punish” line is poor propaganda IMO and the proof is in the fact that the “punish and hate the rich” lines are not working well in American public opinion.
A couple of many examples: CBS News/NY Times poll showed that 72% of people favored raising taxes on the wealthy in order to reduce the deficit.
19 Different Polls Show That Americans Support Tax Increases To Cut Deficit
“The left doesn’t care that Mitt pays more than “the working man”. The left just wants to punish Mitt for being rich. Doesn’t matter if his tax rate was 99% and everyone else’s was 1%. They’d still be bitching that it’s not 100%.”
Smithers Strawman. It has a nice ring.
Was it FDR’s stimulus that got us out of the Great Depression, or was it WWII?
Was it FDR’s stimulus that got us out of the Great Depression, or was it WWII?
Mostly WW2, since much of FDR’s early gains in the economy were lost when they tightened up too soon after the economy showed strength in the late 1930s, precipitating another major recession.
But spending on WW2 was stimulus too, and as I’ve noted before, is the only type of stimulus some will accept. Just as those who had earlier preached that FDR’s New Deal plans were too expensive, were wholeheartedly in support of the government spending far more when the Hun was at our door and our existence was at stake.
Bombs or bridges, it’s all stimulus. But bridges have more long-term benefit, and are more pleasant to use.
And it was the New Deal programs that made the returning soldiers into a strong middle class, rather than a bunch of angry young men with combat training and no jobs.
Neither. China wasn’t around. Japan and most of Europe were flattened by WWII leaving US the only exporter for some years to come.
leaving US the only exporter for some years to come.
Why didn’t South America equally thrive and create a large middle class during this period?
And how many years was the rest of the world ‘bombed flat’? I’ve been to Europe, and there are quite a few buildings there older than the 1950s.
Printing money also concentrates wealth and destroys the middle class. There is no easy answer. But if a person is making 60,000 dollars and spending 100,000, it is not enough to cut back his spending to 80,000. She needs to cut back to 60,000 or obviously below to pay down her debt. Greece is still relying on the rest of EU for transfer payments. The Greeks are complaining that they have to live closer to their means they are not even being asked to live within their means.
The Founding fathers saw this problem, ironically, by studying the Greek and Roman democracies. Democracies fall as soon as the power to tax is used to transfer money from one individual to another instead of for the general welfare (bridges etc). I think without these transfer payments and the Fed creating the bubble economies, we would have adopted policies to prevent the deindustrialization of America and the swamping of the labor pool with illegal aliens. Strict compliance with the constitution would have prevented the mess we have.
Greece just went further down the road and it is not easy to create real jobs but they have to do it. Whether the democracy in Greece survives is an open question. Throughout the history of the world, democracies are rare. We lived in a rare era but unless people can accept reality that era is coming to an end.
Grampa used to tell me that freedom has a catch; responsibility.
BTW, I am using the 100,000 vs 60,000 numbers for a reason. The federal government is presently borrowing about 40% of all the money it is spending.
Real estate bulls in Tucson are probably spitting their morning coffee as they read this story:
Report: Tucson’s housing bubble still deflating
Prices expected to drop this year, rebound in 2013
Because we have never developed an economy based on anything other than real estate speculation, house price watching is like a religion around here.
Occupy smashy: Hope and Change-not so much
Here is a highly edited video from Occupy Oakland of their attack on the Obama HQs, with accompanying taunt and dance party.
In addition to the attack on the headquarters, they also tore down fences at 19th and Telegraph, and attacked cars, smashing windshields.
Most of the people in the video are not Occupiers, but surrounding people attending an art street festival. The Occupiers are often dressed in black bloc attire on this video.
Attributing this action and the smashing of the windows to the subgroup calling itself, ”East Bay Uncontrollables”, Occupy Oakland said:
In another communication released by Occupy, they gave the following rationale, objecting to permit requirements related to the art festival, Art Murmur:
We refuse to surrender our space. We want to encourage the organic and rebellious elements of Art Murmur[the street art festival] to flourish. We are here to exercise a vision of a liberated city full of free art, free music, free culture, free expression, and free streets.
We are spontaneous, insurgent, uncontrollable.
These are our streets, and we are here to take them.
FTP! F### THE PERMITS! F### THE POLICE!
A storm is coming…
Occupy anarchists attack Obama HQs with kids inside
Occupy Oakland had another “FTP”(F### the Police March) last night in Oakland, California.
@shaianisreal
I was inside the Obama campaign office in Oakland earlier when protestors hit our windows with rocks & paint. Srsly?? There’s kids in here!
4 Aug 12
Citizen Journalist
http://citizenjournalistdotorg.wordpress.com/ - 69k -
This happened in Oakland?
What a surprise!
“This happened in Oakland?”
“What a surprise!”
This wasn`t on NBC Nightly News?
An even bigger surprise!
All is peaceful. Everyone is happy. Look! Terrorists squatting in the sand halfway around the planet want to take it all away! Something Must Be Done!
And now a word from our sponsor, Jefferson Airplane.
“We are forces of chaos and anarchy
Everything they say we are we are
And we are very
Proud of ourselves”
I actually like that song.
“Most of the people in the video are not Occupiers, but surrounding people attending an art street festival. The Occupiers are often dressed in black bloc attire on this video.
Attributing this action and the smashing of the windows to the subgroup calling itself, ”East Bay Uncontrollables”, Occupy Oakland said:”
Yet the article continues to say the actions are those of Occupy, even after making the above statements?
Sheesh.
“Attributing this action and the smashing of the windows to the subgroup calling itself, ”East Bay Uncontrollables”, Occupy Oakland said:”
“In another communication released by Occupy, they gave the following rationale,”
If Occupy Oakland says Occupy Oakland didn`t do it, than I guess Occupy Oakland didn`t do it. So I guess the good protestors are with Occupy Oakland and the bad protestors are with the East Bay Uncontrollables. I`m glad we got that cleared up.
Logical fallacy FAIL.
Yeah but when the Tea Party had their Rally on the National Mall there were no Rapes, Overdoses, people Sh*tting on Police Cars, and they didn’t leave and Garbage behind
those Occupiers need to Occupy a shower and get a job!
Occupy Oakland FAIL.
And we know that the Gov and wealthy elite would never try to discredit or take over a movement like OWS or the Tea Party right?
The gov/elite created the ideological “rivarly” between OWS and TP and the media ran with it.
If you need the gov/elite and/or media to tell you there is a rivalry between the two you’re not a very bright person.
The elite own both the gov and the media so what did you expect?
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 5, 2012
Quinn Administration Releases Study: Without Pension Reform, Illinois Will Spend More on Pensions than Education by 2016
Property Taxpayers Far More Protected With Comprehensive Pension Reform That Includes Responsibility for School Districts Than Without
CHICAGO – August 5, 2012. Governor Quinn released data today prepared by the Illinois Office of Management & Budget (OMB) that shows without comprehensive pension reform, Illinois will spend more on pensions than education by Fiscal Year 2016. The budget office performed the district-by-district analysis based on current projections to examine the long-term funding challenges of the state if comprehensive pension reform is not enacted. The analysis was released just days after Governor Quinn called a special session dedicated to pension reform on August 17.
Under current actuarial assumptions, required state pension contributions will rise to over $6 billion in the next few years if no comprehensive pension reform is enacted, which will continue to result in significant cuts to education. According to the analysis, continued cuts to education as a result of fast-rising pension costs will cost downstate and suburban school districts far more than assuming the responsibility to pay for their compensation decisions over time.
Every day that Illinois’ pension crisis goes unresolved, the unfunded pension liability grows by $12.6 million. Without comprehensive pension reform, funding for key services such as education will continue to be squeezed out. Governor Quinn has proposed a comprehensive pension reform plan that eliminates the unfunded liability over the next 30 years and includes a phased-in normal cost realignment that would ensure school districts have a stake in the contracts they negotiate.
http://www.illinois.gov/PressReleases/ShowPressRelease.cfm?SubjectID=1&RecNum=10451 - 31k -
That guy Andy, still talking about the bank 100 years later.
Yeah, Andy. You really need to let it go on that bank thing. I mean, lighten up. Borrow money against the house and get rich, okay?
1832.
Thx…
Geithner, Treasury Drove Cutoff of NON-union Auto Workers’ Pensions
by MATTHEW BOYLE August 7, 2012
Emails obtained by The Daily Caller show that the U.S. Treasury Department, led by Timothy Geithner, was the driving force behind terminating the pensions of 20,000 salaried retirees at the Delphi auto parts manufacturing company.
The move, made in 2009 while the Obama administration implemented its auto bailout plan, appears to have been made solely because those retirees were not members of labor unions.
The internal government emails contradict sworn testimony, in federal court and before Congress, given by several Obama administration figures. They also indicate that the administration misled lawmakers and the courts about the sequence of events surrounding the termination of those non-union pensions, and that administration figures violated
http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/detail/geithner-treasury-drove-cutoff-of-non-union-auto-workers-pensions?f=puball - -
I’ve had union supporters tell me tha the only reason I make a good living is because unions gave it to me, and if I’m not in a union, I’m stealing.
I’m self employed….
The mentality of a leftist: You didn’t earn anything, govt/unions gave it to you.
Speaking of unions, I saw a p/u truck plastered with union stickers and next to those a NOBAMA sticker. So there is at least one sane union member out there. It’s a start.
Unions are the the top 11/15 of ALL TIME POLITICAL donors.
(Top All-Time Donors, 1989-2012 - http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/list.php?order=A)
It is good to be in a union that can buy and sell politicians at will.
And use those politicians to pervert laws (in this case bankruptcy laws for your own benefit).
And then sell yourselves as victims and for the working man.
Goldman Sachs number 7 and National Assn of Realtors number 4.
Now let’s do the comparison of all union contributions vs all corporate or CEO contributions. My guess is you are smart enough to understand that it’s total donations and your chart is propaganda.
The fact that public sector unions have been destroyed and private sector are currently being cut down shows you who donates more and who is in control.
GM agreed to guarantee the pensions of union workers when Delphi was split off.
GM did not agree to guarantee salaried workers pensions.
This was way back in 1999.
I’m sure that Bain Capital was very involved in this decision.
All “agreements” are off the table in a bankruptcy.
Unless you are a union that gives heavily to obama.
Then you can protect what you want to protect and screw everyone else.
And suck $30 billion in taxpayer money that will NEVER be paid back.
It is good to be a union goon.
It’s even better to be a banker who took TRILLIONS OF YOUR tax money and has yet to pay it all back.
You got prison punked by the bankers, but blame the unions. How… typical.
Actually - I blame them both. Both have become leeches on society and government.
YOU, however - as a kool-aid drinking liberal, see nothing wrong with unions, especially public unions, bankrupting cities/counties/states ALL across America and taking BILLIONS in taxpayer funds that will never be paid back.
Why?
Because unions give 99% of their money to democrats.
And that is ALL that matters to you.
Again let’s compare total contributions and power of unions vs CEO, Hedge Fund, Big Oil, class vs unions.
Let’s compare the tax benefits and wealth gains of these elites to the trade policy and loss of health care benefits and job security and pay of the unions and tell us who is the real problem.
The elites are winning by every metric and you sit here and spew about unions day in and day out. Anyone who says otherwise is a koolaid drinking liberal?
The reality is that there should be a balance of power between labor and capital and that the power has tilted more and more toward the elites. Many who thought unions were too powerfull in the 70’s see that the elite have stripped too much power and wealth and have destroyed institutions that can organize people against them, ie press, unions, Tea Party, OWS etc.
Family Security Matters, lol. Are they part of the Kochtopus?
How come you didn’t make the list of right wing posters, Jethro? Did your lyric rewrites grant you artistic immunity? (And what about Blue, and anonDC, and AQ Dan, and…)
Good call, Alpha! All the usual suspects:
“Family Security Matters (FSM) originated in 2003 as a project of the Center for Security Policy, a hawkish security policy think tank and advocacy group. Soon after its formation FSM claimed to represent “security moms”.
Meanwhile, who’s the parent of Project Security Mom?
Center for Security Policy was founded in 1988 and states that it operates as a “non-profit, non-partisan organization committed to the time-tested philosophy of promoting international peace through American strength.” … Dick Cheney, Vice President of the U.S. under George W. Bush, was an early member of Center’s Board of Advisors (which is now called the National Security Advisory Council).
… Donations to the Center have come from a variety of conservative foundations such as: The Smith Richardson Foundation, The Sarah Scaife Foundation, The Carthage Foundation, The Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, and the John M. Olin Foundation.
Yep.
Seriously, wingnut welfare must be one heckuva Venn diagram. How do these folks keep track of who sits on which board of which foundation, much less do any “analysis,” all while presumably holding other publishing or political jobs?
The fall 2008 financial panic was all Thomas Jefferson’s fault, at least according to this writer.
Never mind that Jefferson has been dead for over 100 years. Never mind the scrapping of Glass-Steagall, or the rise and fall of the too-big-to-fail Megabank, Inc oligopoly.
Does Megabank, Inc pay writers like this one to pen WSJ Op-eds for them?
OPINION
October 10, 2008
A Short Banking History of the United States
Why our system is prone to panics.
By JOHN STEELE GORDON
We are now in the midst of a major financial panic. This is not a unique occurrence in American history. Indeed, we’ve had one roughly every 20 years: in 1819, 1836, 1857, 1873, 1893, 1907, 1929, 1987 and now 2008. Many of these marked the beginning of an extended period of economic depression.
How could the richest and most productive economy the world has ever known have a financial system so prone to periodic and catastrophic break down? One answer is the baleful influence of Thomas Jefferson.
Jefferson, to be sure, was a genius and fully deserves his place on Mt. Rushmore. But he was also a quintessential intellectual who was often insulated from the real world. He hated commerce, he hated speculators, he hated the grubby business of getting and spending (except his own spending, of course, which eventually bankrupted him). Most of all, he hated banks, the symbol for him of concentrated economic power. Because he was the founder of an enduring political movement, his influence has been strongly felt to the present day.
…
But he was also a quintessential intellectual who was often insulated from the real world.
Darn those intellectuals! Walling themselves off from pop culture! The nerve of them!
Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 we have had the “Great depression” and the “Great recession” due to the ability to flood an economy with money and the problem that people that have access to the money first ( the banksters) will be able to buy up real assets with paper before the paper depreciates. The concentration of wealth has been aided by government.
The Founding fathers protected us from the banksters with their resistance to a national bank and the tying of money to gold. They protected us for the free sh*t army by attempting to have the power of govenment very limited and no power for transfers of wealth between individuals. The breakdown of both protections has created the problem we are facing. And the wealthy often support these transfers since they keep people from rioting. However, they want the middle class to pay for them. Look at the the VAT (sales tax) and gasoline taxes in Europe.
There were several depressions long before the federal reserve was formed.
Yes. and we were able to emerge from them without governmental intervention. They made the country stronger not weaker. More productive, creative destruction was allowed to work its magic.
You have got to be kidding.
The early history of this country was a roller coaster of depression after depression.
“Creative destruction” is pruning a tree, not burning it down.
I saw a production of the “Bad Quarto” Hamlet last night. It was awsome. Haven’t seen it in years - since a bunch of off-off broadway theater did a Hamlet festival in NYC.
A few months ago, I saw Shakespeare’s “Winter Tale.” Acted by Tucson’s Rogue Theatre.
Go see them if you’re here. Just do it. I’d be happy to take you if you need a friend to support you while you watch a Shakespearean play.
Last night’s production was by a company called Taffety Punk. I’m really enjoying them. Definitely going to check out The Rape of Lucrece later in the year.
And Shakespeare by a company that calls itself Rogue sounds like a good time. But if I’m ever there, I’ll treat you.
And I love Winter’s Tale.
“Exit, pursued by a bear”
I saw an NYC fringe festival show a few years ago that was a musical version of Winter’s Tale. It needed a lot of work, but was already pretty darn good. I got their CD. Just had to have it.
This is not a unique occurrence in American history. Indeed, we’ve had one roughly every 20 years: in 1819, 1836, 1857, 1873, 1893, 1907, 1929, 1987 and now 2008.
Wow, he’s right. Every 20 years, throughout all of American history, we have a panic/depression, just like clockwork. Whoops! I see an exception! Somewhere in there is a 58 year period without a panic. The period of 1929 to 1987, the first 51 years of which were the period when we employed Keynesian economic policy, the last few years of which were when we dropped it in favor of trickle-down supply-side monetarist economics. At which point the 20 year cycle reasserts itself. Hmm.
What is he calling the 1980-82 period? The 1973-75 period? the 1969-71 period? Seems like he is omitting quite a few recessions to make this one work.
Those were all relatively minor recessions.
LOL 1973-75 and 1980-82 minor recessions? Where do you get that from? Your lack of historical knowledge is shocking.
One of the problems people have with the Fed, and with government spending in general, is that a small group of people have the ability to pick winners and losers in the economy, instead of letting individual desire, the atomic component of the economy, which ultimately creates the ocean currents of the economy as a whole, dictate the direction of the economy.
The problem with letting a small group of individuals do that is:
1) The system is prone to corruption, as the people doing the spending and allocations are just as human as the lady working the cash register at the grocery store. And the elites have fears and desires which are just as manipulable as the cashier’s.
2) The system is rife with inefficiency and unintended consequences. All centrally planned systems have either failed or are failing.
On the other hand, government is, factually, the largest actor in an economy. This was Keynes insight. But, there is a relentless tendency towards centralization of power among human societies, which ultimately leads to more corruption and inefficiency.
A corrupt and inefficient system imposes a great deal of costs on the larger citizenry, while rewarding the insiders. This is nothing new.
Because everyone wants to move to NYC…
———-
Hudson Yards: New York City’s Urban Town Within A City
NEW YORK — New York lost the 2012 Olympics, but the city’s bid for the summer games spurred another, visionary venture: building up the largest undeveloped parcel in Manhattan.
This October, developers of the ambitious Hudson Yards project expect to break ground on a skyscraper where the Olympic stadium could have been.
It’s the first step in a $15 billion small city within a city planned for 26 acres of land by the river, bounded by 10th and 12th avenues and West 30th and 33rd streets.
At 12 million square feet, Hudson Yards is billed as New York’s most ambitious private construction since the 1930s, with thousands of apartment units including affordable housing.
So NYC has given up the hopes of ever hosting an Olympic?
Apparently so… It’s time for the speculators and foreign investors to dump their money in Hell’s kitchen!
Its the reason they are expanding the 7 train to the javits center..
I dont foresee too many problems with that since i doubt very many who will live/work on the far west side will need to commute to queens
The U.S. should not host another Olympics unless and until 30 years after the rest of the world starts begging us to.
We dodged that bullet in NYC.
I was listening to a Freakonomics Podcast, and I think they noted that your best bet is to finish in 2nd or 3rd for the Olympic running. You’ll spend many, many millions for the effort ($100MM?), and send a signal to the rest of the world that you are a top tier City, but won’t need to spend $Billions in facilities.
If you win, you spend the billions, and don’t add anything to local economic activity, since those visiting are essentially displacing other tourists (that would have come anyway). Any slight increase in people coming in is eaten up by the billions in costs.
Isn’t 15% roughly the same chance facing a Russian roulette player with one bullet in a Six Gun?
There’s a 15% chance of falling off ‘fiscal cliff,’ J.P. Morgan says
August 7, 2012, 9:58 AM
Congress isn’t really going to let the so-called fiscal cliff — the planned tax hikes and spending cuts that will be triggered at the end of the year if no action is taken — will they?
According to a note published by J.P. Morgan, there’s a 15% chance they will.
“The bottom line is that under various scenarios, our analysis suggests a 15% chance of actually ‘falling off the fiscal cliff’ for as much as 6 months – that is, expiring tax provisions plus sequestration push the U.S. economy into recession in the first half of 2013. Interestingly, we think the likelihood is similar regardless of who takes the White House. Of course, this is an adverse scenario of risky assets and we see the downside for the S&P 500 SPX at around 1100 (15% downside for equity markets),” said the analysts.
…
Is JP waiting at the foot of said cliff? Y’know, to snap up some assets on the cheap?
Congress isn’t really going to let the so-called fiscal cliff — the planned tax hikes and spending cuts that will be triggered at the end of the year if no action is taken — will they?
Heck, even Romney’s on record to continue kicking the can at least one more year. It’s a done deal.
Not necessarily. A lot of it depends on the election. But this analysis isn’t for it happening at all. The chance of that happening is fairly high. The analysis is for it being stuck in place for 6 months or more. That is a lot less likely.
For now the DC whispering machine is that the Democrats think it might be worth letting it happen for a few weeks because then they can propose restoring the cuts for the middle class and the Republicans might go for it because it won’t be “breaking” their pledge to Grover N. They would be only voting for tax cuts because the tax increases would have already happened. I think the idea that the Republicans would fall for this rhetoric is absurd, but that is what they are hoping for. And it honestly, it is dependent on keeping the White House and/or still having the majority in the Senate. A president not running for re-election could say send me a bill without the tax cuts for the wealthy or I don’t sign it and be believable - maybe. And the leadership could refuse to bring it for a vote in the Senate - maybe. But anything else and they will cave in like a dried out sand castle facing a pack of 4 year olds.
Ya gotta love Robert Shiller’s intellectual honesty — such a rare quality in this world over-confident bovine brains!
That said, given that this bubble was the biggest ever in history, with residential real estate prices and transactions volume steadily building from the trough in 1996 to the onset of housing price implosion in 2006, the chances that it has already bottomed out sooner than the last bust ended seem very slim.
August 6, 2012, 1:00 PM
Is This the End of the Housing Bust? Not So Fast, Says Shiller
By Joe Light
As I wrote in the Weekend Investor cover story, “Is the Real-Estate Rebound for Real?,” this weekend, many indicators are pointing to a bottom forming in the housing market. New-home inventories are at historic lows. Home-builder sentiment has finally turned the corner. And finally, home prices have ticked up for four months in a row on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
All that might make it tempting to call the “all clear” once and for all. But one of the earliest experts to identify the real-estate bubble, Yale University professor Robert Shiller, isn’t convinced we’ve crossed into safe territory just yet.
His reasoning? The home-price rebound, if that’s what it is, doesn’t yet have momentum – which Shiller’s research has found is the most powerful driver of home prices.
Momentum is the tendency for prices to keep moving in the same direction. It exists, but is a relatively weak force, in the stock market. In the housing market, though, it’s proven to be a reliable predictor of where prices will go in the future.
That’s in part because of what Shiller calls “feedback loops.” When someone makes a lot of money off of home-price increases, his friends hear about it and maybe the media takes note. Others who hear those stories decide to take their chances buying a home themselves. That leads to further price increases and more success stories, and the loop continues.
Feedback loops can help home prices – as they did during the housing boom – or hurt them, as they have with all the bad real-estate news over the last few years.
With several successive months of price increases, you’d think that momentum would finally be in the real-estate market’s favor. But Shiller says he stills sees reason to be skeptical.
“It could be [a bottom]. It’s a real possibility. I just don’t know,” he says.
…
“Is the Real-Estate Rebound for Real?,”
It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘Real’ is.
It also depends on what the meaning of the word ‘Bottom’ is.
“It could be [a bottom]. It’s a real possibility. I just don’t know,”
And we could be in a recoveryyyyyyy.
Ooops I stayed on the y too long. I was startled by the flock of pigs that just flew past my window.
Sure it’s a recovery by government definition. Said recovery is a slowing in the rate of decline, just like budget cuts are slowing the rate of spending increases.
Feedback loops go both ways.
Positive feedback loops and negative feedback loops.
Foreclosures beget more price reductions, which beget more foreclosures, etc. is one of those negative feedback loops.
A big part of when the positive feedback loops strengthen/appear is when that big negative feedback loop weakens, which is why I keep noting non-current loan rates.
In some markets, the negative feedback loop of foreclosures is weakening based on the data. In other markets there is a real risk of additional foreclosures feeding that negative loop.
Follow the non-current loans, and you’ll find where there is fuel for the negative feedback loop of foreclosures.
And follow your lies….. all over the net.
I struck up a conversation about housing prices a at a party a couple of nights ago with a friend who is a second generation appraiser, a renter, and one of the few San Diegans with whom I feel comfortable having an open discussion about housing, as neither of us is a true believer in the “real estate always goes up” theory of housing price dynamics.
His view is that despite the rising chorus of serial bottom callers insisting the bottom is real this time, that there is another wave down in prices ahead before the SoCal bust is over. ‘Nuff said.
His view is that despite the rising chorus of serial bottom callers insisting the bottom is real this time, that there is another wave down in prices ahead before the SoCal bust is over. ‘Nuff said.
I agree. With high unemployment persisting into the foreseeable future, and with job growth and household formation being down in the cellar, there are no trends that justify sustained increases in house prices.
I call a dead cat bounce on the latest house price increases.
South Florida is getting ready for tougher gun laws.
Posted: 8:39 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2012
Woman and dog stabbed to death in Miami; ex-boyfriend in custody
By MONIQUE O. MADAN
The Miami Herald
A women and a boxer dog were stabbed to death in a Miami Gardens home late Monday night, according to reports.
The women’s daughter was stabbed but was able to escape. She was taken to Jackson North hospital in stable condition.
According to police, Alphonso Jerard Lucas, 39, the woman’s former boyfriend, turned himself in to police at the home in the 4500 block of Northwest 180th Street, Miami Herald news partner CBS4 reported.
Investigators were at the home early Tuesday morning awaiting a warrant to enter the home. Lucas is in police custody and is being questioned.
Posted: 10:12 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2012
Man dies after being stabbed in suburban Boca Raton
By Cynthia Roldan
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
A suburban Boca Raton man died from his injuries overnight after he was stabbed Monday.
Palm Beach County Sheriff’s deputies were dispatched to the 2200th block of Southwest 54th Way, in the Sandalfoot Cove development just after 11:30 p.m., to reports of a stabbing. When they arrived, deputies were told that 25-year-old Antonio Caceres had been stabbed in his lower torso after being involved in an altercation with an unidentified man, said Deputy Eric Davis, spokesman for the sheriff’s office.
Caceres was rushed to West Boca Medical Center by his friends, and later taken to Delray Medical Center were he was pronounced dead just before 3 a.m., Davis said.
The investigation into the stabbing is ongoing, Davis said.
Give em all 25 years and no parole/early release unless they can read and understand current events in the Miami herald and in front of a judge or parole board…now thats tough.
What does a stabbing have to do with gun laws?
If the dog had been packing heat, this tragedy could have been averted. Or something like that.
If we just had common sense knife laws, none of these tragedies would have occurred.
There is no need for anyone but a law enforcement officer to have anything but a plastic knife. I suggest Costco since they carry the best plastic knives.
You could put your eye out with that. Only nerf knives are safe.
“There is no need for anyone but a law enforcement officer to have anything but a plastic knife. I suggest Costco since they carry the best plastic knives.”
The officer was rushed to the hospital without his face. It took ten more plastic knife yielding SWAT members to subdue the crazed suspect.
“If the dog had been packing heat, this tragedy could have been averted.”
If the dog knew how to drive and had access to an SUV, this tragedy could have been averted.
Like I said, South Florida is getting ready for tougher gun laws. But the criminal nuts will still get the job done.
Posted: 11:14 a.m. Sunday, July 15, 2012
Man arrested on first-degree murder charge for hitting Lake Worth family with SUV
By Barbara Marshall and Cynthia Roldan
Palm Beach Post Staff Writers
Update: A judge denied bond for Diego Pascual, accused of running over a family with his sport-utility vehicle, killing a woman and injuring four others. He was ordered to have no contact with any of the victims and possess no weapons.
LAKE WORTH —
On Sunday morning, the world of a little girl in a pink T-shirt collapsed in a bloody moment.
Diego Francisco Pascual had decided that he wanted to “scare” and “hurt” his live-in girlfriend and her family, the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office said. So the Lake Worth man ran them over, killing his girlfriend’s mother and injuring her father and three of their children. A fourth one managed to jump out of his way just in time.
Pascual, 26, is in the Palm Beach County Jail on charges of first-degree murder and five counts of attempted first-degree murder. He turned himself in Sunday afternoon to a Lake Worth substation after he said “he thought about what he did,” according to the arrest report.
Diego Francisco Pascual appears in court Monday morning after the Lake Worth man allegedly ran over the family of his live-in girlfriend, killing his girlfriend’s mother and injuring her father and three of their children on Sunday. Pascual, 26, is in the Palm Beach County Jail on charges of first-degree murder and five counts of attempted first-degree murder.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/news/three-adults-two-children-injured-in-car-accident-/nPtGd/ - 93k -
“What does a stabbing have to do with gun laws?”
The criminals are preparing for not having access to guns?
“The criminals are preparing for not having access to guns?”
Ding ding ding ding. We have a winner.
Give that man a years worth of mortgage payment from the Hardest Hit program and thank him for playing….
The Price Was Wrong and It`s Not My Fault
Lovely.
http://www.economist.com/node/21559923
One of Mr Schmitz’s tenants, Paula, had bought a house in 2007. She and her husband picked out every detail, from the site to the cabinet knobs, and watched it being built, slab by slab. After the recession hit, her husband, a trucker, saw his business dry up and his costs soar with the price of fuel. They fell behind on their payments and, to avoid foreclosure, sold the house for little more than a third of what they paid in a “short sale” just before Christmas in 2010. “I was sick to my stomach,” she recalled. But when Mr Schmitz, the buyer, asked if she and her husband would like to remain as tenants, it was “our Christmas miracle. It was win-win.” Their rent is now roughly half their original mortgage payment, and “We kept our dignity.”
and this
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-investors-fleeing-equities-hint-122102217.html
Let me offer a more straightforward explanation of why investors have left the stock market: it has been a losing proposition. An entire generation of investors hasn’t made a buck.
“The cult of equity is dying,” Bill Gross, the founder of Pimco, wrote in his monthly letter last week.
“Like a once bright green aspen turning to subtle shades of yellow then red in the Colorado fall, investors’ impressions of ’stocks for the long run’ or any run have mellowed as well,” Mr. Gross wrote. His letter came after he had sent a Twitter post that read: “Boomers can’t take risk. Gen X and Y believe in Facebook but not its stock. Gen Z has no money.”
this reminds me of a show called “Deadwood” were all the independant gold miners were scared into selling their claims to a front man who was buying for a big Gold miner named Hearst
no stocks and renting .. well I’m buying
Their rent is now roughly half their original mortgage payment,
How many times must I ask?
Why buy a house today when you can rent for half the price? Buy later after prices crater for 65% less.
Because that “today” happened in 2007. The half price rent isn’t going to happen, it has already happened.
It’s happening. Yesterday, today, tomorrow…. for a very long time whether you like it or not.
You made a tragic error. Get over it.
“Their rent is now roughly half their original mortgage payment”
And the new owner bought for a third of their original price (and probably at a lower interest rate if he didn’t pay cash).
The local rents must always be figured in. There are some places that rents will probably never crater. They may fall a little bit every now and then (as SF rents did after ‘89 earthquake or dotcom bust), but there places like NYC and SF have never seen a rent collapse.
This story made me ill: http://www.missionmission.org/2012/08/06/its-so-hard-to-find-a-place-to-live-in-sf-that-people-are-resorting-to-paying-for-facebook-ads/
I had been looking at rentals here in SF and it’s pretty nuts. Renting a ROOM in my neighborhood is upwards of $800 month. Can’t get a SFH to rent for under 3K, unless it’s in an extremely sketchy neighborhood.
My entire family and childhood friends are still in NYC. The only folks who have managed to remain in Manhattan are those who own, like my mother, or those who have rent controlled apts.
Here in SF, we are the hold-outs. Everyone I knew from my 20’s, when I first moved here, has left for more affordable digs, usually the East Bay or Portland. But we love it here, and have gainful employment.
That’s interesting because rental rates are falling in all 5 boroughs.
Do you not realize your game is obvious?
That’s interesting because rental rates are falling in all 5 boroughs.
How many people do you know in NYC looking for a place to rent? C’mon now. When 1 bedrooms fall from 3K a month to 2800K month, whoop-de-doo.
Nobody.
And 1 bedrooms aren’t 2800/month.
Why are you misrepresenting NYC rental market?
Sorry, but you are wrong.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/22/realestate/manhattan-the-city-of-sky-high-rent.html?pagewanted=all
My sister just spent 9 months looking for a new place. They ended up in Bed-Stuy.
Queens is not Manhattan. Oakland or South San Francisco is not San Francisco.
You seem to forget something. I’m based in NYC. Secondly, NYC isn’t “Manhattan”. Thirdly, you’re misrepresenting the truth about Manhattan. Rental rates are slipping in Manhattan.
Why are you here misrepresenting the truth about housing?
“The cult of equity is dying.”
And this is seen as a bad thing?
Well, it is a bad thing if one owns a lot of equities because such a death will tend to lower the prices a bit. It is bad if one wants (or needs) to become a seller of equities.
But what if one yearns to become a buyer of equities? Isn’t the death of an equity cult something that a buyer should welcome?
Maybe equity prices will end up (gasp) becoming re-connected to fundamentals.
Maybe equity prices will end up (gasp) becoming re-connected to fundamentals.
But when?
It’s a bad thing for 401k’s and pension funds, which is a bad thing for the unemployment rate (marginally fewer people retiring, marginally fewer government employees, marginally higher tax rates), which is a bad thing for the economy, which is a bad thing for businesses, which is a bad thing for 401k’s.
Inflate, inflate, inflate (or at least attempt to inflate).
“The cult of equity is dying.”
LIVING COLOUR LYRICS
“Cult Of Personality”
Look in my eyes, what do you see?
Cult of dying equity
I know your anger, I know your dreams
I’ve been everything you want to be
I’m the cult of personality
Like Mussolini and Kennedy
I’m the cult of dying equity
Cult of dying equity
Cult of dying equity
Neon lights, Nobel Prize
When a mirror speaks, the reflection lies
You won’t have to follow me
Only you can set me free
I sell the things you need to be
I’m the smiling face on your TV
I’m the cult of dying equity
I exploit you, still you love me
I told you one and one make three
I’m the cult of dying equity
Like Joseph Stalin and Gandhi
I’m the cult of dying equity
Cult of dying equity
Cult of dying equity
Neon lights, a Nobel Prize
A leader speaks, that leader dies
You won’t have to follow me
Only you can set you free
You gave me fortune
You gave me fame
You gave me power in your God’s name
I’m every person you need to be
I’m the cult of dying equity
Cult of Personality - Living Colour - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzdUy90vTuk - 157k -
LOL. No wait, double LOL on this one.
Bill Gross, one of the world’s biggest bond holders says stocks are a bad investment. No! Really? I am shocked.
Next thing you know the the CEO of Biggest Plasma TV Maker, Inc will be out there saying LCDs are bad TVs and the cult of LCDs is over.
They are a “good” investment, only because Bernanke has helicopters, and the PPT have decided that pumping share prices are Job #1, and screw pretty much everything/everybody else.
Share prices are artificially inflated for the same reason as house prices. To support the investment banks “mark to fantasy” asset valuations, until the can be dumped.
Are those black UN helicopters?
“Are those black UN helicopters?”
I think Bernanke uses the Chinook helicopter. Here is one on a cash dump training exercise.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AG43PdC1GTE - 107k - Cached - Similar pages
Jun 12, 2011 … this Chinook helicopter does its best to mitigate the damage.
Let me offer a more straightforward explanation of why investors have left the stock market: it has been a losing proposition. An entire generation of investors hasn’t made a buck.
Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!
“An entire generation of investors haven’t made a buck.”
Uh, maybe because an entire generation of investors put their money into the market and puffed up the prices.
After the money has been put in and the prices have been puffed up, then what?
IMO reality is raising its ugly head.
Buy high and sell higher!
You know what? Now that I think about it, this is analogous to a situation we encountered this weekend. After grilling for dinner, we decided to go out for some ice cream at some new trendy place with all those exotic flavors (chevre with marionberry habanero jam and other bullsh*t) here in town.
When we got there at 9:30PM there was a line around the corner and the wait was 45 minutes to one hour according to one guy in line. He then says, “What else are you gonna do?”
Um, for starters, not wait in line for over-hyped ice cream. Duh.
It’s like an epidemic in this country. Houses. Stocks. Ice cream. I mean, what else are you gonna do?
When we got there at 9:30PM there was a line around the corner and the wait was 45 minutes to one hour according to one guy in line. He then says, “What else are you gonna do?”
Um, for starters, not wait in line for over-hyped ice cream. Duh.
I think I’d be wanting to figure out how to make my own ice cream. Bet I could do that in less than 45 minutes.
My wife redirected me away from the scene before I could scream, “The Emperor has no clothes!”
“Bet I could do that in less than 45 minutes.”
Slim — the Alton Brown vanilla ice cream recipe is very quick. But it’s important to let the mixture cool in the fridge for a while to prevent a granular texture, so that increased the time to cookie hole. Best to make on a Saturday morning (15 min), chill until lunch and churn while you’re eating, then freeze until dinner.
One of Pollen’s “Food Rules” is that you can eat junk food as long as you make it. It’s amazing how few times a years you’ll eat potato chips if you have to make them!
Marionberries are just northwest blackberries.
Yep:
“The ‘Marion’ cultivar (Rubus L. subgenus Rubus) or Marion blackberry, marketed as About this sound marionberry (help·info), is a hybrid caneberry developed by the USDA ARS breeding program in cooperation with Oregon State University. It is a cross between the ‘Chehalem’ and ‘Olallie’ berries.[1] The marionberry is currently the most common blackberry cultivar,[2][3] accounting for over half of all blackberries produced in Oregon.[4]”
Side note: I took a beer-brewing class last weekend. OSU is also producing some pretty awesome hops as well. Can’t wait to cook up a brew soon.
Notice how the stock market has rocketed up ever since Gross made his “death of equities” announcement?
Last year Gross said to get out of Treasurys, just before they had yet another stellar year.
I’m beginning to think the best way to make money is to invest in whatever Gross poo-poos.
Thomas Jefferson: out of control spending leads to oppression and tyranny
Yes - excessive spending inevitably brings taxes and oppression. In a word: tyranny. Even the Founding Fathers saw it.
————————————————————–
In a letter to Samuel Kercheval (June 12, 1816), Jefferson wrote the following:
And to preserve their independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we run into such debts, as that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are, our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in the twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses; and the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they now do, on oatmeal and potatoes; have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account; but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-sufferers.
This example reads to us the salutary lesson, that private fortunes are destroyed by public as well as by private extravagance. And this is the tendency of all human governments. A departure from principle in one instance becomes a precedent for a second; that second for a third; and so on, till the bulk of the society is reduced to be mere automatons of misery, and to have no sensibilities left but for sinning and suffering. Then begins, indeed, the bellum omnium in omnia, which some philosophers observing to be so general in this world, have mistaken it for the natural, instead of the abusive state of man. And the fore horse of this frightful team is public debt. Taxation follows that, and in its train wretchedness and oppression.
Oh yes those oppressed elite paying less then 10% on every dollar earned, with their off shore accounts that never get audited their tax loopholes, their control of trade policy, and regulation.
Thomas Jefferson: out of control spending leads to oppression and tyranny
“Oh and Toby…..instruct my slave, the young miss Sally Hemmings, to report to my bedroom in an hour with 2 glasses and a bottle of mulberry wine” Thomas Jefferson, 1787
Home prices across the nation continued their upswing in June, according to a new report from CoreLogic. Including sales of foreclosures and short sales (selling for less than the value of the mortgage), prices rose 2.5 percent from a year ago.
But that’s OK, since rents are decreasing and so renting is still the way to go. Oh wait…
Asking rents rose in 24 of the 25 largest rental markets from a year ago, according to a new report from online real estate company Trulia. Rents are pushing double digit gains in San Francisco, Miami, Oakland, Denver, Seattle and Boston, and rents are rising faster than asking prices in 21 of the 25 largest rental markets year-over-year.
Rent hasn’t gone up $0.01 in same metro Denver apartment since we moved in 2-1/2 years ago. This is not SF, Boston, Seattle here…
You are under the mistaken belief that the plural of anecdote is data.
Thank you for your enthusiastic participation on the HBB
Are other units in the building still renting for what you are paying?
http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2012/08/03/fort-lauderdale-boatclub-files-chapter.html
Plans for a so-called “dockominium” at a Fort Lauderdale marina have landed in bankruptcy court.
The Fort Lauderdale BoatClub Ltd. filed for Chapter 11 Thursday, declaring $13.5 million in assets and $10.3 million in liabilities.
The marina, at 1915 SW 21st Avenue in Fort Lauderdale, was formerly known as Jackson Marine. A group of investors bought it for $16 million in 2006 with the idea of selling the boat spaces.
The project is in receivership after Jacksonville-based EverBank filed a foreclosure lawsuit in August 2011 over a mortgage last modified at $11 million.
Edward Ruff, the principal of the borrower and Naples-based BoatclubsAmerica, signed the bankruptcy petition.
Bankruptcy attorney is Barry P. Gruher of Genovese Joblove & Battista.
Among the local creditors is Miami-based law firm Bilzin Sumberg Baena Price & Axelrod, with a disputed claim of $150,023, according to the petition.
The 12-acre site was approved for 330 dry slips, 14 executive offices, 14 garages for storage and a boat yard.
National Liquidators, which seizes boats from delinquent owners and auctions them off, has since used the site.
Gross income for the project as listed on the bankruptcy filing was $2.1 million in 2010; $2 million in 2011; and $1.1 million in 2012 (to date).
How do you go bankrupt with MORE assets than liabilities and a positive CASH flow????
The Fort Lauderdale BoatClub Ltd. filed for Chapter 11 Thursday, declaring $13.5 million in assets and $10.3 million in liabilities.
Gross income for the project as listed on the bankruptcy filing was $2.1 million in 2010; $2 million in 2011; and $1.1 million in 2012 (to date).
Gross income does not necessairly translate to positive cash flow.
All it takes is a single debt coming due without cash to pay it off or a source of refinancing. Either financial institutions are getting really nervous, or the financial statements for this company have some not so well hidden secrets.
They made it up on volume…
Gross != Net
How? It’s called “Hollywood ” accounting and yes, that’s a real technique.
How do you go bankrupt with MORE assets than liabilities and a positive CASH flow????
Start drinking heavily?
If you can’t show that you have equity to protect, and a way to reasonably pay the debt, you shouldn’t waste your money on a BK.
If you can show that you have equity to protect, and thus that the lender is in a safe position, and that you have cash flow sufficient to pay back the lender in time, then the judge can essentially force a loan extension upon the lender.
This is very bad: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9459321/Syria-Iran-vows-it-will-not-allow-Assad-to-fall.html
My great fear was that first Bush II and then Obama’s push for democracy would lead to a major war between the Sunni and Shiite branches of Islam. Far from unleashing democratic forces they unleashed fanatics from both branches. I think we are very close to all out war between the branches. Iran’s first target for nuclear weapons with probably be Saudi Arabia not Israel.
$300 a barrel oil becomes a real possibility.
“$300 a barrel oil becomes a real possibility.”
Althgouh it certainly would lead to economic hardship, $300 bbl oil would certainly fix a few problems in the US: type II diabetes, obesity, (some) pollution, vehicular homicide, DUI, stay-at-home moms with school age kids driving SUVs to the gym, unemployment rates (due to compulsory military service to invade OPEC nations), etc.
This is great news.
They will all get to see what fanatics do to society.
Just look what the Dark Ages did for Europe.
The only question is will they commit genocide…or aim for each others mosques?
There are unintended consequences of keeping interest rates very low. For extended periods of time. Basically, the short video talks about investors willing to dabble in riskier loans in order to obtain higher yield. Nothing surprising there. But if these loans start going bad at higher than expected rates, will the government again step in to pay them off?
The Hunt for Yield in Asset-Backed Bond Offerings
Bloomberg Video
01:31 minutes
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/the-hunt-for-yield-in-asset-backed-bond-offerings-p2NkK7RLS0imNm~j2_PiWw.html
Consider this:
If you manage your own money and you have enough of it then you can rest easy by remaining in cash. But if you manage other people’s money then you cannot stay in cash because staying in cash will not generate the income needed to pay your management fee, let alone pay a return to your sheep, er investors.
So out of cash you will have to go - not because you want to but because you have no other choice. At the same time lots of other money managers will be getting out of cash and into whatever for the same reason.
All this cash going into whatever will tend to push the price of this whatever well beyond a prudent risk/return ratio.
From July 2008 to July 2012, cash returned 0%. S&P500 returned 4.25% annually (with reinvested dividends). Had you cost averaged with purchases every few weeks, you’d be looking at close to 10% return annually.
Why you people continue to drool over cash is one of life’s great mysteries.
Lol. Did you, perhaps, do a wee-bit of cherry-picking in choosing your dates?
“Lol. Did you, perhaps, do a wee-bit of cherry-picking in choosing your dates?”
OK fine, 4 years is cherry picking
How about 1 year?
4.49% annual return
How about 2 years:
Annual return of 14.3%
How about 6 years?
Annual return of 3.4%
How about 8 years?
Annual return of 4.78%
How about 10 years?
Annual return of 6.2%
How about 15 years?
Annual return of 4.4%
How about 20 years?
Annual return of 8.2%
You were saying…..
Official inflation averaged roughly 3% for the last 20 years.
http://www.statista.com/statistics/191077/inflation-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/
If you pick your start and end points well, then yes, you can certainly do quite well. It’s market timing.
If you don’t pick your start and end points well, then it’s another story entirely. You become more concerned with the return OF your investment rather than the return ON your investment.
For the S&P 500 example, had you invested anytime from 2000 to 2002, you’d have lost money if you pulled it out in July 2012: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Egspc
For dollar-cost averaging, it would be informative to know the average cost paid for the shares over a period of time, versus the price one could get for them if one sold them at the current time.
Remember - you don’t make money till you cash out.
“Had you cost averaged with purchases every few weeks, you’d be looking at close to 10% return annually.”
I am puzzled as to how increasing your principle investment makes the return % go much higher. Explain.
If you are going to use your own money to play the game of Chase-The-Yield then you will be playing against:
1. Some very hungry and desperate and maybe well-connected players who …
2. Are playing the game with other people’s money.
Maybe the best way to win such a game is not to play.
Back to: “1. Some very hungry and desperate and maybe well-connected players…”
I probably should have said “A WHOLE LOT of hungry and desperate and maybe well-connected players …” because a WHOLE LOT of people went into finance during the boom, and finance and managing money is where many of them still are because that is all they know.
Lots of money managers climbing over each other trying to chase the yield makes for some fun and interesting viewing - but the viewing is a bit less fun (but no doubt is still quite interesting) if the money that is being used in playing Chase-The-Yield belongs to you.
One of the nifty things about being a money manager is there is delayed feedback: Whatever the investment decisions, whatever the promises, the payoff (or lack of payoff) may not materialize until some time well in the future - maybe months, maybe years.
Meanwhile the management fees get deducted beginning with the first month, when the investment is first made, and every month thereafter (this, as I understand it, is the usual arrangement).
Pay them money now and they will promise to maybe, somehow, arrange it so you will get paid money later.
And if the promise is not kept? Oh, well. Sorry about that.
Next?
Meanwhile the management fees get deducted beginning with the first month
Bingo. That was going to be my response as well. Reading “Enough” by Bogle right now. While I suspect there’s a little bit of salesmanship to low-cost index funds coming as I read further, that is a central theme so far: too many college grads going into the non-productive finance sector and managers extract too much of investors’ wealth/gains. Downright Commie-talk coming from such a money guy.
“Meanwhile the management fees get deducted beginning with the first month, when the investment is first made, and every month thereafter (this, as I understand it, is the usual arrangement).”
Stupid people agree to such arrangements. Smart people agree to arrangements where the fees are a % of the returns. No returns, no fees.
“Smart people agree to arrangements where the fees are a % of the returns. No returns, no fees.”
Here again the risk is with the owners of the OPM. If there is to be fee based returns then the money manger has an incentive to take the largest risks available if there is even a hint of a large return.
If the investment works out then both the manager and the owner of the OPM get a big win. If it doesn’t work out then the OPM owner gets to eat a big loss and the money manager gets to break even.
So everyone who invests in a hedge fund is stupid? Standard hedge fund fee is 2% of amount managed every year AND 20% of any profits.
“fee based returns” should read “return based fees”
Give to me a million dollars and I will establish a genuine track record that will blow you out of the water. How about, say, a forty percent return? Would you sign up for that?
Here’s what I would do:
1. I would divide the million into ten equal parts and open up ten commodity trading accounts.
2. I would select five volatile commodities, such as, say, porkbellies, and I would buy one of these commodities in one account and sell an equal amount of the same commodity in another account. I would do this - buying and offsetting by selling - in all ten accounts.
3. One of these accounts will do very well, some will do less well, some will be disasters. I will close out all the accounts EXCEPT the account that did the best (and I will suffer a bit of a loss, one that I am willing to eat) and - presto! - I will have for me a well established trading record.
And this trading record can be annoited and blessed by auditors as being true (because it is true) and it can be used as a sales tool to convince owners of OPM to hand over to me all their hard-earned cash, their life savings, and all the money they can cash out of their house.
They will do this because I - along with my annointed and blessed trading record - will convince them that I am indeed a bonified trading genius.
You are fooling yourself if you think it’s that easy.
Also, when found out, you will be sued for lack of disclosure of material information (the 9 accounts that you conveniently did not disclose).
And those that sue you will win.
You know what they call a private equity manager who negotiates a 2% and 20% structure and doesn’t deliver results?
Out of business.
Also, and Combo, most managers need to invest a substantial amount of their own money alongside OPM, so it’s not as simple as you say (where managers are taking big risks without worry of loss of capital). First, if big bets don’t pay off, good luck raising the next fund. Second, if those big risks don’t pay off, you lose your own money (as well as needing to pay salaries in the meantime for your employees).
Those investing in private equity take things like conflicts of interest and alignment of interest very seriously.
Neuro / Combotechie
Interesting posts. Thank you.
I have been thinking this thing (low interest rates) thru from M1 and M2 where when total velocity lessens you just print more.
But investing it in bonds to fuel municipal payrolls just lengthens Armagaden - I think.
I think the stock players with their halved volumes are showing us that they can - sort of - keep the market above a safe level - for them.
Bankers are to be pitied. They must be in their corner offices terrified of the retribution the system (maybe even the government) will do to them for their poor behaviour.
Does anyone on this board seriously think housing prices are really going up ? Pockets of well fed, employed persons in prime buying season do not make a market.
As far as interest rates I think BB knows he took a chance and bought some time. But the ship has not been fixed and can still sink. A few scarry things like capacity utilization, ship revenues, employment, Europe, decline in some profits, China, the Cliff -, unaddressed poor financial behaviours - this doesn’t give a lot of confidence.
All problems that developed due to concentration of wealth and the destruction of the middle class to feed the elite. .
“just print more” JPM
JPM - JPMorgan Chase and Co Stock quote - CNNMoney.com
And in printing more you:
1. Ultimately you either retrieve your printings or you devalue your dollar to relative GDP. (I think I read that would make the dollar worth about .86 net present value a short while ago)
2. Pensioners who saved all their lives and rely on approximately 30% of their spending money from interest on savings - could now be 3% - and there is a lot of these people getting 1.5% on their savings.
3. Banks, insurance companies - anyone relying on interest rates are having a tough time getting their leverage down or paying fixed insurance contracts because interest rates are so low they are having trouble just covering their operating costs.
4. When the dollar does reflect it’s value, energy costs will balloon so that the producing countries can receive fair value.
5. Goverments all over the world will find it impossible to operate anywhere close to their current levels. This could cause sovereigns to go bankrupt all by itself.
6. Bloated stock markets will be affected by reduced corporate earnings - and will drive the market down as the value of zero interest loses it’s lustre. Reversed interest though might drive it up wildly if you had to pay to store your money.
7. Muni bankruptcies will occur in greater volumes because the low interest rates will encourage it. Not only do you get rid of your problems, but you get to refi the rest at a very cheap rate.
8. If interest rates go up - housing goes down. If they stay where they are - housing stagnates because buyers are waiting for prices to drop further. This current mini boom makes no sense until you realize that it is based on a handful of sales.
9. Tax liability distribution is slanted in favour of the rich. Middle earners cannot carry the load on their own as they are a dwindling group due to baby boomers retiring, recession, and offshoring. The current low interest rates are an impediment to this class because it cannot “consolidate loans” at the cheaper price as a majority which would heavily influence consumation by this group. They cannot because their consumer debt is almost record high and their real equity has thinned out. So called risk premiums are pushing the ability to re-pay beyond a loan that would wrap it all. A lot of words, but without significant tax reform - this group is going in a handbasket.
10. Repatriation of world wide incomes can no longer be done without upsetting the apple cart of target countries. What a waste. We probably will start to see a reduction in corporate savings as they feel more secure and buy back their shares. What a waste. But the real waste is all those well trained and educated people who currently cannot find decent employment.
Speaking of the Olympics, any IT types here?
I don’t have cable, so I’m basically SOL from watching the Olympics. From NBC’s site, you have to enter your cable subscription account info to get access. When selecting Comcast, however, they’ll give you a temporary, one-time pass. I thought I was able to bypass them by entering a different email address but I think what really happened was, when I did that, I also used a different computer. If I use the same PC but use a different email address, it tells me my pass has expired.
My question is, do they use an IP address to track it? Should resetting my router change anything? (Didn’t seem to.) Or are they also able to read MAC addresses off the PC itself?
Should have said, can’t watch them LIVE.
Also got stonewalled trying to download BBC’s online viewer:
“I’m sorry, we can’t show this content in your area.”
Can’t you get it with an antenna?
Yes, but I want to stream it live online, not be at the mercy of NBC’s replays…
They can’t read the MAC address. They probably store a cookie or local data in your browser. Clear your browsing data and try again.
Cleared out everything. Cookies, cache, browsing history, forms, etc. No dice. I think they’re watching me.
Cleared ‘em all. Cache, Cookies, Browsing History, Forms, etc. No dice. I think they’re watching me.
IP.
Can you reset it? Or is it set on the router through your ISP?
Should have said “set on the router BY your ISP?”
Let’s see…. Today on the Housing Bubble Blog we have roughly 9 posts related to housing and ………300 posts related to elections and ideological far out bullshit.
“Cult Of Personality”
Look in my eyes, what do you see?
Cult of dying equity
I know your anger, I know your dreams
I’ve been everything you want to be
I’m the cult of dying equity
Like Mozilo and Bernanke
I’m the cult of dying equity
Cult of dying equity
Cult of dying equity
Neon lights, Nobel Prize
When a Realtor speaks, the reflection lies
You won’t have to follow me
Only you can set me free
You gave me fortune
You gave me fame
You gave me work outs in a victims game
I’m every person you need to be
I’m the cult of dying equity
Cult of Personality - Living Colour - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzdUy90vTuk - 157k -
Amazing band. I know some composers that have had Vernon Reid play on their tracks - he is unbelievable. Their musicianship is/was astounding.
Speed metal was never my thing, by sometimes you just gotta play fast.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmtQXe6lonE&feature=related
1:10 - 1:53 is where it’s at.
I didn’t make it that long.
If I can get this Citizen Cope “Hurricane Waters” earworm dislodged, I’ll listen to those vids. Thanks for tossing ‘em my way.
Okay, now you did it. I want to play Living Colour on the radio!
Only problem is, the airtime I’m getting is on the all women! all the time! show. Which means that I’d be in a bit of a pickle with The Producer if I played Living Colour.
Hell, I got my knuckles rapped for playing Sharon Jones and the Dap Kings. Darn those Dap Kings.
Oh, well, you can always go with cooler-than-now Sleigh Bells. Not my thing, but it has its place.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=780FZKfk_2A
Here’s another lady track for you
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7xH1_OdrvQ&feature=related
Dang Slim your getting to be a real DJ. I love her music.
Sharon Jones and the Dap Kings. Darn those Dap Kings.
Ive been getting onto Lykke Li
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLDHyCkqbuw
How many times today did you call someone a liar?
I’m not sure.
Are you a liar?
I want to stream (the Olympics) live online,
I can’t get NBC in Brazil. Down here I found most Olympic stuff here.
thefirstrow dot eu
tabs for soccer, (football) basketball and everything else under tab “others” all the way on the right.
Other than all the pop up sites that came with it, that has some promise. Thanks.
Now, off to remove some spyware.
LOL
Is not joining Facebook a sign you’re a psychopath? Some employers and psychologists say staying away from social media is ’suspicious’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2184658/Is-joining-Facebook-sign-youre-psychopath-Some-employers-psychologists-say-suspicious.html
Is anyone here a psychologist? Can you work up a profile of the average HBB’er? Lol.
Subjects are skeptical of everything, avoid large crowds, and are likely to survive under any circumstance.
I hope you all are well. Since the beginning of July I have been working 10-12 hour days getting up to speed in my new gig. I suppose some could do it in less time, but I refuse to let anything go unfinished, and/or be completed half-assed. Things should calm down in a few weeks once the schools are back open. I’ve lost about 15 pounds since I skip lunch almost every day.
Nobody at work really talks about real estate anymore, but there are a lot of teachers still talking about leaving and going elsewhere. Georgia and North Carolina are still the most spoken. I hired a few people this year and they’re all from Ohio, Michigan, New York, etc. Economic refugees.
Many districts in Florida are facing budget shortfalls for next year. The anti-testing faction is gaining momentum, so it’ll be interesting to see where that goes. The pendulum might… be…
Avoid the massive housing inventory.
go Mugz!
No joke, your short, swift nut-kicks are what we all need.
Realtors are liars.
Yeah, tear ‘em up, Muggy! Go, Muggy, go!
OMG. If this is a plot to make me move to the Right, it’s working.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/WashingtonPost/Content/Blogs/201205/IMG_444a1.JPG?uuid=egHwpuDTEeGPxafc8fwWHQ
lol….. Careful…. that partial hairlip/missing upper lip and marginally crossed eyes will make you head for the back door in a hurry.
Wow, the power of plastic.
About three weeks ago, I was driving through Washington about 30 miles north of Olympia on the Olympic Peninsula in Washington, and I was in a georgeous rainforest with 200 foot trees towering up above me and little cottages where I was wondering what type of people lived here in this quiet peculiar forest when I saw a restaurant that served Geoducks, and I thought about this blog’s Patron Saint. Not every blog has a patron saint you know so bless you all me hearties.
Hoping to get up there this year, Al. Do you remember the name of the restaurant?
I’ll be sure to have some tater tots and a Stout in Oly’s honor, and maaaybe a geoduck if we make it up that far.
I really don’t remember. It was about 20 miles south of Port Angeles on Highway 101
Why is it that realtors seem to avoid admitting their occupation? They must truly be ashamed of it.