August 9, 2012

Bits Bucket for August 9, 2012

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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285 Comments »

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 06:26:04

Oohh…kay…

Comment by goon squad
2012-08-09 06:55:37

Disappointed the bits thread was posted later than usual thus delaying the daily discussion of Drudge Report linked “news” articles?

Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-08-09 07:27:16

You LIBERALS need to learn patience, like our forefathers intended. It’s always gimmie gimmie gimmie with you people.

How’s that?

Comment by goon squad
2012-08-09 07:34:21

Speaking of patience, a google search on “ebt card midnight walmart” return this among many articles:

Midnight in the food-stamp economy

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5BH2C220091218?irpc=932

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Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-09 09:44:09

Doesn’t happen in NY you get your card filled each month on the date you were originally approved

 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2012-08-09 07:27:22

Was that necessary? What’s with all the baiting and sniping on the blog these days?

Keep the people fighting amongst themselves!

(Post with the knowledge and regret that I’ve made a few cheap shots myself)

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-08-09 14:58:20

“(Post with the knowledge and regret that I’ve made a few cheap shots myself)”

We all have, but every call for reasoned debate versus rabid, partisan opinion spewing is helpful.

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Comment by Salinasron
2012-08-09 07:34:39

Just think what would happen if the Internet crashed world wide! People would be running to their nearest MD for a load of tranq’s. People would be sitting in offices staring at the walls, etc. Could make for a great comedy movie.

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-08-09 07:50:11

‘delaying the daily discussion of…’

The posters that complain the most about this sort of thing take the biggest role in it.

BTW, I’m on the road and having internet connection problems. So I’d appreciate it if I didn’t have to moderate little snippy posts. I allow everyone to act like an adult; please take me up on that.

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Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-08-09 15:05:04

And here I thought you were just being lazy and slept in until 5:00am this morning. :D

On the road? Anywhere exciting? I’m going to pretend you are enjoying the cool morning mist of light rainfall in the Pacific Northwest or nursing a cold one by the beach in Hawaii. (Ok, it would be like 3:50am in Hawaii, but this is just my daydreams.) If you’re in the midwest thank you for the cooler weather!

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-09 08:48:41

Just think what would happen if the Internet crashed world wide! People would be running to their nearest MD for a load of tranq’s. People would be sitting in offices staring at the walls, etc. Could make for a great comedy movie.

I have been going out to a place where I can rent desk space, oh, once a week. And, guess what, the WiFi there really doesn’t like my laptop. At best, I only have an intermittent Internet connection.

Well, I’ve gone into a few snits about this. Especially when the other people there said that they use MACS and I’m on a PC.

The nerve of me, using a PC.

Well, I’m very good at deploying a snitty attitude, and it often gets me into trouble.

But the advantage of the intermittent Internet on the WiFi is that I can really tunnel into projects without indulging my “check the e-mail” tic. Or the web-surfing tic.

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Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-08-09 09:13:36

Check out Self Control for mac, it lets you block various things for a few hours. Works really well.

http://www.macupdate.com/app/mac/31289/selfcontrol/

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-09 10:21:16

She just said that she is on a PC.

 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-08-09 11:24:33

Sorry… I misconstrued the direction of the snitting.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Kay
2012-08-09 06:28:23

Yes?

 
Comment by Lip
2012-08-09 06:42:43

Who Gets a Pass?

Even as Emanuel warned Cathy that his company did not reflect “Chicago values,” his own city remains among the most murderous in the world. This year, Chicago youth have killed more Americans than have the Taliban in Afghanistan.

We must make allowances for the supposed Biblical conservatism of some black pastors in a way we cannot for the white, Christian CEO of Chick-fil-A. Farrakhan’s hatred cannot possibly earn him ostracism. We cannot extend the anger at evangelical Christians for their incorrect attitudes toward feminism and homosexuality to the Muslims who often share similar views.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/08/09/who_gets_a_pass_115050.html

It’s all just political positioning. Conservatives are evil. Progressives are loving and kind. Progressives are smart. Conservatives are dumb.
UGH

Comment by goon squad
2012-08-09 09:46:07

Just slap a COEXIST sticker on and it’s all good, right?

Comment by Lip
2012-08-09 18:58:23

The only people I know with those are a total mess.

 
 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 09:51:03

Who says he gets a pass except for muckrakers trying create news?

What he said was boneheaded. What the CEO said was boneheaded as well. But you can’t stop a company from operating where it pleases if is not in violation of any laws or regulations.

 
 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 06:50:19

Condo search update:

As of last update, there was a condo in a good complex listed at $50K, but it needed a lot of work. We low balled an offer at $40K. The seller countered at $45K and we said, no thanks.

Another condo we were interested in was on the market for 2 days and was under contract before we could even get over to it to take a look.

Yet another condo that we were interested in had a hard bottom line price of about $10K over what it would appraise for. It was in a complex that was in the middle of an apartment to condo sell off when the market crashed. If they couldn’t sell it for the $10K over appraised value, then the condo association was just going to buy it back and re-partment it.

And, another I was interested in wouldn’t pass the 50% owner occupied requirement required for financing.

In short, still no inventory on the market. When something is listed, it is gone within days, usually to cash buyers that are paying above appraised value.

At this point, if we don’t find a condo for the price we want to pay, then Meh… we don’t get one. Not a big deal either way.

My son managed to get 3 jobs. 1) Working at the football stadium in “conversions”. Basically, setting up and taking down chairs and such when converting from football config to concert or trade show. Will be a grand total of 40-80 hours a month. 2) Burger flipper for a new hamburger restaurant. 3) cashier at the college bookstore (temp job just for back to school rush which lasts about 3 weeks).

After months of looking and over 100 applications, he’s happy to have these jobs.

Comment by polly
2012-08-09 08:03:46

Well, if what you are saying is true, all you have to do is wait a few months and then the new comps will mean that the condos will appraise for their asking prices? Won’t it? That is what the math would say.

You still haven’t explained why you need to buy a condo for your adult, employed child.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 08:13:34

Because he wants to help his kid?

Comment by polly
2012-08-09 10:28:47

When my parents wanted to help me out, they let me live in my old bedroom and pay rent. It let me adjust to having adult obligations (car insurance, car payment, dry cleaning, etc.) in a situation where the rent was really low, but was unpleasant enough to encourage me to figure out what I needed to do to become self supporting pretty darn quickly. Help plus a gentle push out the door. Getting to live in your own condo is nice enough so the gentle push factor is missing.

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Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 12:37:46

At 18 my dad told me, “We’re moving to a condo and there isn’t room for you”.

Not doing that to my 18 year old son. He’s staying right in the same room he’s been living in for a decade.

However, the 25 year old daughter with husband and child of her own would be a tight addition to the 4 of us already living in our 3 bedroom house.

Yes, she could rent here, but rent is more than the house payment from buying.

Yes, I could give her the money to be a down to buy something herself, but I’m not sure it is a good idea for her to buy until she’s lived here for a couple 115+ degree summers.

And, her renting or buying her own doesn’t help me be ready to downsize in 10-15 years, nor does it help me diversify out of stocks and bonds into something more real.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 12:51:57

A very American attitude. Foreigners don’t have this “kick the kid out” attitude we gringos have.

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 13:33:53

No amount of gentle pushing is going to get the kid a sustaining job, if there are no jobs to be had.

Several of my co-workers are finding out that their kids are not doing so hot. And while they are tempted to pin the “lazy” label on the kid — because after all, when mom and dad were young they walked to school uphill both ways barefoot in the snow — these 45-50+ mom and dad are just starting to admit to themselves that they wouldn’t have done so hot in this environment either.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-09 15:03:08

And while they are tempted to pin the “lazy” label on the kid — because after all, when mom and dad were young they walked to school uphill both ways barefoot in the snow — these 45-50+ mom and dad are just starting to admit to themselves that they wouldn’t have done so hot in this environment either.

My parents reluctantly came to the same conclusion back in the 1980s. I think it may have had something to do with that weekend we spent together in Pittsburgh, where I was going nowhere in a dead-end job and in life. My anger and bitterness really got their attention.

Well, fast forward a few years, and I’m newly arrived and in a new work environment in Tucson. Boss sees how clearly down and out I am. The bitterness and the anger were still very much there.

Boss recognized that I had some undeveloped talents, and she and her colleagues started getting all up in my face about that. One of the things they kept repeating was that I needed to do a lot more than focus on my writing.

Yes, writing was important in that job. And I was pretty good at it. But there was more to do. Photography. Editing. Dealing with the media, donors, the public. (This was a fund-raising organization.)

There also were things like identifying and supervising outside vendors. Purchasing equipment.

Gradually, the bitterness and the anger levels went down. I started gaining confidence.

That boss and the colleagues are still friends to this day.

 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-09 16:35:28

Depends on where you live, too. Here in SF there are jobs. I work with high school kids, and none of them have trouble finding a job.It may be a dead-end job, but it pays.

Minimum wage in $10.24 hour (highest in the country). No one here is getting rich off that. A room in a house in a halfway decent neighborhood costs at least $750 month.

 
 
 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 09:12:50

Several reasons.

1) Prices have gotten crazy low here. Condos with fundamental (price/rent and price/income of target household) value of $70K-$80K were selling for under $40-50K, with some closer to $30K.

If I am ever going to buy a condo, this would be a very good time to do so.

2) I have an adult, married, 25 y/o daughter that would like to relocate to Phoenix from Reno with my 6 month old grand-baby. They would like to eventually buy a house but do not have a down payment saved. Rents are higher than monthly carrying costs. I could put her in my condo for a couple years. She’d save a lot of money and could save up to buy her own place.

3) I also have an 18 year old son that will want to move out in a couple years. Having a place that is cheaper than rent would not be a bad thing.

4) buying now and having it paid off in 15 years gives me an easy option to downsize in preparation for retirement.

5) diversifying assets out of stocks/bonds into some real assets.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 09:03:45

Darrell does your son need to stay in Phoenix? If all he can find is burger flipper jobs, then he can flip burgers in Oil City.

I guess I always have to put in this option because I am no stranger to moving across state lines to chase jobs.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 09:34:09

If you can get a condo for 40K in Phoenix, doesn’t that make Phoenix an “Oil City”?

Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 09:53:41

Yes, it does, but I thought Darrell’s point is that he can’t get a condo for $40K any more because they are being bid up.
But I checked Florence and Wickenburg and the only options in that range are trailers anyway. So yeah, may as well stay near Dad.

It seems that $30K is about the minimum price for any kind of operational roof-n-toilet, anywhere in the US. No wonder they’re being snapped up.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-09 10:35:21

That is because of the floor the government puts under subsidized housing IMO. $500 a month or thereabouts.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 12:54:19

Just visit a car dealership and see how many of the cars in the showroom cost 40K or more. Small wonder the “strong hands” are buying these things for renting out. To them it’s chump change.

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 15:37:40

When I was in the Midwest, I used to drive along a small stretch of old Highway 40, parallel to the 70 superhighway. What a sad road 40 is. It’s a largely empty 4 lane bumpy road, lined with old mom and pop motels and diners from the 50’s, many literally falling apart to where only the sign is left. They had obviously been proud small businesses put out when superhighway 70 went through just a few miles north.

Many of those old motels are now rental efficiency apartments for the poor. I wonder what they cost.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 09:54:13

You can easily pay more for a car these days.

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Comment by SUGuy
2012-08-09 11:17:14

Not doing a deal over 5K is silly. 5K is not a whole lot of money. I have heard so many stories over the years from older folks that they could have bought in Manhattan for such a such price back in the day and they wish they had bought. You purchasing price reflected the price of a European car. Not a big deal

Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 11:31:48

I agree, and was ready to accept the $5K difference. However, my wife and I sat down with paper and pencil and calculated the cost of all the repairs and improvements. We then decided that even with the $12K-$15K the place needed, we really wouldn’t want to live there because of the odd, inefficient floor plan and such.

So, it was more about rethinking the original bid than the $5K difference in price that made us walk.

Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-09 14:13:10

The momentum of an emotional purchase is often broken thusly. Anything that makes you stop and consider the deal as negative.

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Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 12:10:26

Was the deal broken over the $5K, or over the work that needed to be done? And what kind of work has to be done to a condo?? I thought you just painted the walls HGTV Brown and went clubbing. :grin:

Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 14:04:19

Technically, it was a townhouse… but condo is easier to type.

It needed new flooring throughout, popcorn scraped from ceilings, old water damage repaired in the master bedroom and laundry room, walls patched, full paint, the sliding glass door needed replaced as it would not slide without great effort from a 230 lb man, the original 1972 bathrooms needed gutted and remodeled… stuff like that.

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-09 19:32:23

popcorn scraped from ceilings

Popcorn ceilings contain asbestos in most cases. That’s an expensive removal.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 12:52:04

A few more specifics.

We put an offer on this one at $48K. Got outbid by a couple cash buyers.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14002-N-49th-Ave-UNIT-1120-Glendale-AZ-85306/7952671_zpid/

This is the one we low-balled at $40K, and got countered at $45K.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5918-W-Golden-Ln-Glendale-AZ-85302/7703852_zpid/

Those are the only 2 we have actually bid on.

We came close to bidding on this one….
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8202-N-33rd-Ave-Phoenix-AZ-85051/7751483_zpid/

It is big at 1500 sqft. Unfortunatly, when we walked through the complex we changed our minds as many of the units are empty, the common areas are not well maintained, and the pool needed resurfaced at least a decade ago….

The units are there, and moving (under contract in days). We’d just need to have the extra cash on hand to go $5-10K over the appraised value and enjoy doing a full remodel.

 
 
Comment by Housing Is A Loss
2012-08-09 07:18:51

Considering housing prices are falling when defaulted sales are included, why is the media reporting prices are going up?

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 09:54:05

Interesting, isn’t it?

 
Comment by SUGuy
2012-08-09 11:30:03

I have been travelling for work and I am noticing less vacation traffic but the hotel rates are like it is 06 very high.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 13:23:31

I think there is some relationship between the price of gas that goes into a RV and the hotel rates. I travel a lot and have noticed that during low gas price periods the low to moderate hotels are a bargain. During high gas periods, and anything about $3 fits that, bargains are hard to find.

Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-09 13:52:17

But don’t low gas prices also coincide with bad economic times?

I don’t think there are enough RV owners as compared to hotel rooms to move the needle. My assumption would be that the far greater reason for hotel/motel rates are increasing is a combination of better economic times (increasing demand) and VERY little new hotel/motel construction over the prior 3-4 years (flat supply).

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-08-09 14:02:46

Hey Pimp,

Why the constance stream of lathered up lies and speculation from you?

 
Comment by SUGuy
2012-08-09 16:12:35

I am staying at the Hampton Inn at Crystal Run Crossing Middletown NY at a rate $159. Next week I will be at the Holiday Inn in Elizabeth town PA same price. I think hotels are trying their best to make hay while the sun shines. In the colder months occupancy will drop to less than 30 percent. My guess is that it is all about survival. About not building hotels anymore I think there is an oversupply. Get of any fricken exit off a major highway and you will find more hotels than McDonalds or Burger kings.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-09 19:46:21

Get of any fricken exit off a major highway and you will find more hotels than McDonalds or Burger kings.

+1. Last road trip I took, there were four brand new vinyl-sided POS 4-story motels at every exit. Looked like the build quality of the average new house. I guess it’s cheaper to tear them down every few years than to build them well.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-09 13:48:35

If you parse through the components of your data, and the components of their data you’ll probably find the reason.

The MSM isn’t smart enough to do their own research…what they are reporting is the result of someone else’s homework.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-09 07:26:25

Central bankers’ efforts to convince stock market investors that more stimulus is on the way seem to be working effectively.

In Fed we trust. Never mind those nagging concerns about the stalling global economy, as they only increase the prospects for more stimulus. And never mind that Treasury yields have already been stimulated down to generational lows…

Wall Street drifts at four-month highs
By Rodrigo Campos
NEW YORK | Thu Aug 9, 2012 10:11am EDT

(Reuters) - The Dow and S&P500 were little changed on Thursday as hopes of European Central Bank action to tackle the bloc’s crisis grew stale, while Cisco Systems led the Nasdaq higher after bullish research on its stock.

Chinese economic data kept alive talk that central banks will intervene to support the global economy as annual growth in factory output slowed to its weakest in more than three years in July while annual consumer price inflation hit a 30-month low.

The S&P 500, up for five weeks and also near four-year highs, has risen as investors bet central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will soon act in support of a stalling global economic recovery.

“The Europeans indicated their strong support but have yet to take any actual action, the Fed has indicated strong support but is yet to take any action, leaving professional investors fearful of shorting the market,” said Rick Meckler, president of LibertyView Capital Management in New York.

“There’s individual stock stories that will continue to impact industries, but absent that there really isn’t much to move this.”

 
Comment by michael
2012-08-09 07:27:34

I am seeing the light regarding the contempt for the evil 1%ers…considering the political makeup of the folks that visit I can just about guarantee they are not republicans:

1%er: I am calling to complain that the birds woke my wife this morning at 5:30.

Landlord: I see…what would you want me to do about it?

1%er: eliminate them.

Comment by michael
2012-08-09 07:30:38

Incidentally I have seen similar ignorance from rednecks growing up in Mississippi who are most likely republican.

Comment by palmetto
2012-08-09 07:32:56

“Incidentally I have seen similar ignorance from rednecks growing up in Mississippi who are most likely republican.”

No way. Any redneck worth his salt would just grab his shotgun and take care of the problem himself.

Comment by palmetto
2012-08-09 07:38:12

The Disposessed Majority

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/

Dirt poor guys in beat-up pickup trucks defending the 1%, voting for their own demise, distracted by trumped up social issues.

As usual, PCR nails it.

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 08:24:06

Palmetto .

That’s a good summary of the situation that you posted above me on the ” Disposessed Majority”,IMHO .

It has always baffled me how the PR machine could convince people to vote against their own self interest .I guess they think they are dumb ,or they don’t have the time to figure it out and its easier just to convince people to be a “TRUE BELIEVER”,and just direct their anger toward
anything but the true Culprits that are laughing all the way to the bank at how dumb they are . They must be on drugs(legal or illegal ) ,or all the corn syrup they eat has taken its toll .

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 08:24:16

Especially interesting that a former Reagan Administration official should say these things.

 
Comment by palmetto
2012-08-09 08:29:40

Why? PCR has spent much of his post-Reagan career trying to set the record straight on what really happened during the early Reagan years. It’s a real eye-opener.

Depending upon what sort of propaganda (neolib or neocon) colors a person’s point of view, Reagan is seen in a certain way, neither of which is reality, according to PCR.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 08:39:38

That’s why I admire PCR. I don’t agree with everything he says, but at least he wasn’t a good little puppet who toed the party line.

 
 
Comment by Salinasron
2012-08-09 07:41:21

The bird thing makes me laugh. A weekend ago our daughter got married. The venue was outside near the pier in Monterey in the late afternoon early evening. As a woman guest walked across the courtyard with a plate of food a sea gull dropped his load on her shoulder, with a slight exclamation and without missing a step she said to her companion I hear that’s supposed to be good luck.

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Comment by palmetto
2012-08-09 07:48:15

LOL, I’ve actually had that happen to me. Took a summer job at a retail store in Connecticut between college semesters back in the day, was sitting on a bench, waiting for the bus to take me to work. Got bombed by a bird, took a splat on the knee of my pants. Looked around to see if anyone noticed. It was actually sort of embarassing.

 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-08-09 09:18:07

I was hauling trash with a friend and his son once, and when we got to the dump, he told his kid to put on his hat. The kid kind of balked and argued, but finally complied. His hat was immediately shat on by a seagull.

It was a teaching moment.

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 10:17:16

Awesome story…

 
Comment by Pete
2012-08-09 12:02:46

“The kid kind of balked and argued, but finally complied. His hat was immediately shat on by a seagull. It was a teaching moment.”

Haha! It would have been a better teaching moment if he had let the kid keep the hat off.

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-08-09 13:10:07

Reminds me of the “Foo bird”

Foo bird sits in a tree. Guy walks under tree. Foo bird takes a dump on him. Guy wipes it off. As soon as he wipes it off, guy keels over, and dies.

Next day, another guy walks under the Foo bird. Same thing happens. In fact it happens to everyone who gets crapped on by the Foo bird and wipes it off.

Moral of the Story???”

“If the Foo shitz, wear it.”

 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-08-09 15:03:56

“Haha! It would have been a better teaching moment if he had let the kid keep the hat off.”

If he had balked another 2 or 3 seconds, that’s what would have happened.

I remember his face… he looked at his dad like he was some kind of wizard.

 
 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2012-08-09 07:31:09

Could you elaborate? Maybe I haven’t had enough coffee, I’m a little slow on the uptake this AM. Do you run a resort or bed and breakfast?

Comment by michael
2012-08-09 08:01:56

visiting my inlaws in easter long island. my mother-in-law was reading about a new book that is coming out…something about real estate horror stories in the hamptons. the bird quote was one of the teasers.

here is one my wife likes to tell. when she was in high school she worked for the suffolk county beach patrol.

1%er stops her on the beach.

1%er: i want to tell you that i appreciate what you all have done with the beach.

my wife: excuse me?

1%er: yesterday i was here and there was no beach…but today there is alot more. i appreciate what you all have done.

(the tide)

Comment by michael
2012-08-09 08:03:24

lol…eastern long island…wow…entirely different place when you leave off that “n”.

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Comment by polly
2012-08-09 08:06:43

So, you are in the Hamptons…

 
Comment by palmetto
2012-08-09 08:10:08

Could be Montauk, Sag Harbor.

 
Comment by michael
2012-08-09 08:16:53

Close to sag harbor…inlaws have lived here most of their lives.

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2012-08-09 08:17:56

“visiting my inlaws in easter long island. my mother-in-law was reading about a new book that is coming out…something about real estate horror stories in the hamptons. the bird quote was one of the teasers.”

Sigh. That was God’s country, back in the day before way too much money debauched the entire place. We used to spend time in West Hampton, then East Hampton. Skipped South Hampton, that was always out of reach. But believe it or not, East and West used to actually be somewhat affordable for a little summer vacay.

Speaking of beaches, if I remember correctly, the battle to keep Georgica Beach from being reclaimed by the Atlantic began in the late 1960s, 1970s. When I wuz a pup, the grownups were always talking about “the groins” (fingers of rock extending from the shore to build up the beach, or at least keep it from eroding)

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Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 09:07:00

I read that as “Easter Island.” Now I have this visual of your family looking like the statues.

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Comment by Salinasron
2012-08-09 08:08:18

Neither. I just happened to have been unlucky and lucky depending on the good side of having to pay for a wedding and buying a home vs. seeing my daughter happily married and getting a neat well rounded and grounded SIL.

 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-09 07:33:55

Housing slump blamed for AV Jennings’ $29.5 million loss
by: Neil Wilson
From: Herald Sun
August 09, 2012 12:02PM

PROPERTY group AV Jennings has cited a simultaneous drop across Australian housing markets as a prime reason for its $29.5 million loss after tax for the year to June 30.

Managing director Peter Summers said rock-bottom consumer confidence identified by larger developers such as Stockland, which has reported a drop in revenues, had a deeper dimension in sellers also holding off.

This was slowing down the entire housing and construction market and flowing through to the attitudes of banks to lending.

Mr Summers said he had never seen Australia’s various state property markets so low simultaneously, which made conditions uniquely difficult for an interstate operator such as Jennings.

AV Jennings’ revenue was down 12 per cent, to $188.8 million, as the “crisis of confidence” had persisted despite good economic conditions and no expectation of a sharp decline in housing prices.

Net debt had risen from $82.3 million in 2011 to $129 million.

AV Jennings said the delay in recovery had hit its estates in NSW and Queensland hardest, causing it to restructure management, delay and reduce spending on some projects.

Mr Summers emphasised the company had reported a $5.1 million net profit before provisioning loss on inventory and investments of $34.9 million.

He said home building would remain “subdued”, with the company’s decision to slow down its existing developments in NSW and Queensland also likely to spill over to its four new estates, including Doreen near Epping.

 
Comment by Get Stucco
2012-08-09 07:36:50

7 August 2012 Last updated at 20:48 ET

US homeowners stuck in ‘underwater’ houses
By Jonny Dymond BBC News, Michigan
A house under construction in Michigan

The US housing market may slowly be rebounding. But the construction and buying binge of the mid-2000s will never return, and millions of American homeowners may never recover their investment.

Few people have seen quite so much of the property pain the US has been through as Heather Mooney.

For seven years she has been a foreclosure prevention officer in Washtenaw County, Michigan, trying to help those in tax arrears and mortgage debt.

She has watched as tens of millions of Americans have suffered astonishing losses when their properties fell in value following one of the biggest bubbles the market had ever seen.

“On average in Washtenaw County, you are looking at a 20% loss,” she says. “I’m certainly looking at $30,000 (£20,000) to $40,000 that I have lost in my own home.”

About 40% of homeowners who own the area’s more expensive properties owe more to the bank than their home is worth, she says. They’re “underwater”.

Across the US that figure is one in four, though it should fall as house prices creep up.

Ms Mooney’s clients’ stories are tangled tales of woe - arrears brought on by divorce and illness, banks racking up repayments as early discounts ended.

Aurora Lopez, 42, is one of them. She has a three-bedroom house in Ypsilanti’s historic quarter. It has two stories - it’s comfortable, not grand.

But when her mortgage repayments went from $770 a month to more than $1,800, arrears mounted and penalties kicked in.

“We purchased it for $135,000,” she says, sitting at her dining table. “Right now the balance [on the mortgage] is $150,000.”

“And the house is worth,” she says, pausing briefly to recall the horrible number, “$75,000.”

That’s nuts, I say.

“Tell me about it. It’s ridiculous. But you have to live somewhere. You have to keep on hoping, dreaming, this is the American dream. What you going to do?”

Comment by Liz Pendens
2012-08-09 08:05:43

How can everyone be a victim here?

The homeowners are victims. The lenders were victimized. The bond investors were also innocent. The politicians were not in any way responsible. Even the Fed is completely blameless and deserves great praise for saving the World.

You can’t have a bank robbery where even the robbers are the victims.

…Yet we just did.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 10:01:56

Follow the money.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 09:09:55

These people have very little time to get out of their houses before loan forgiveness is going to be treated again like income. Doesn’t the law changing that expire in 2013? Trying to knock off the cobwebs this morning. I seem to remember that two black congresswomen from CA got caught up in foreclosures and then managed to change the law so they would not have to treat their loan forgiveness as income. Does anyone remember all the facts and when the provision expires? I honestly believe that law was the reason for a rapid decline in homeprices since until it was passed a lot of people were hanging on to avoid an IRS bill. I think the reason that no one in Congress is talking about it is that the banks want that bill to expire to avoid strategic defaults.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 09:19:20

I went to the IRS website and found that the loan forgiveness act is effective from 2007 to 2012 so it is expiring.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 10:03:09

Good find. Did not know that either.

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Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 12:58:00

Yeah, and with the stroke of a few pens, congress can the president can extend it again. With was about to expire in 2009… then in December, got extended.

The reason they are doing this is simple. If you get foreclosed on, and get hit with a big tax burden, then you may as well do the full bankruptcy and wipe out that tax bill along with a lot of other debt.

Forgiving the tax on the debt forgiveness helps prevent the automatic bankruptcy that would follow the tax bill and keeps some people paying their other debts.

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 13:48:37

I don’t believe that money owed on federal taxes is wiped out by BKs

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-09 14:16:32

Colorado, if the loan is discharged in bankruptcy, there is no tax on the amount forgiven. It’s not forgiven, it’s discharged.

 
Comment by CharlieTango
2012-08-09 14:19:53

The 2005 amendments to the Bankruptcy Code expanded the protection of student loan lenders to include private student loans.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2012-08-09 16:17:17

There’s that bankruptcy “reform” again.

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 10:03:17

If these FB’s “don’t know what they’re signing,” then how do you expect them to arrange a house sale around a pending 1099? Do they even know what a 1099 is?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 10:39:49

A lot of them would not. However, a lot of the people involved in a strategic default do know or they even have consulted with an attorney and been told about the law.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-09 14:00:01

We’ve gone through this before. The biggest problem with the law change is for people who cashed out on big refinances. A problem (albeit lesser) still exists for people who didn’t cash out. A few examples:

Home was worth $100k in 1995, in 2005 was worth $350k, now worth $150.

If you bought in 1995, then refinanced with a $200k loan in 2005, and the bank forecloses with a credit bid of $150k, you have:

1. Income of $50k of capital gain on the home sale (no tax if under $500k);
2. Debt forgiveness income of $50k.

If you bought in 2005 with a loan of $300k, and the bank forecloses with a credit bid of $150k, you have:

1. LOSS of $200k on the sale (where there are likely limitations on the ability to take those losses all in the first year, but you will get them over time); and
2. Debt forgiveness income of $150k.

In the second case, it isn’t pretty near term (you probably need to work out some payment plan with the IRS), but it isn’t as bad as the first case, where you have no offsetting loss.

Comment by polly
2012-08-09 15:52:52

I’d take situation 1 ($50K forgiveness of debt income, $50K of excluded capital gains) in a second over situation 2.

Check out page 4 of publication 523 (”Selling Your Home) on irs.gov. It says “A loss on the sale of your main home cannot be deducted.”

Don’t assume stuff about taxes. Sometimes it is consistent Sometimes it isn’t.

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Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 09:43:28

“We purchased it for $135,000,” she says, sitting at her dining table. “Right now the balance [on the mortgage] is $150,000.”

Had to be a 5/1 Option ARM; paid the less-than-interest option for 60 months straight. Not feeling a whole lot of sympathy here.

 
 
Comment by MiddleCoaster
2012-08-09 07:50:46

Yesterday I had a first-year Pathology resident sit with me while I signed out surgical cases. He is a graduate of a school of osteopathic medicine. I learned that he has $300,000 in medical school debt, all of it at 7% interest. He seemed reasonably nonchalant about the $4,000 per month he will owe on this debt for most of his working life.

On the other hand, my inner reaction was a silent howl of distress. The cost of graduate medical education in the U.S. is not sustainable. How can any but the most wealthy even think of pursuing a medical career?

This is another example of education costs far outpacing inflation. Thirty years ago, I graduated from medical school having borrowed every cent needed to live and attend school for 4 years. Total debt: $33,000.

My mind, it is boggled by this.

Comment by palmetto
2012-08-09 08:03:09

“my inner reaction was a silent howl of distress”

Because you’re a decent person and you care.

But I’m glad you brought this up, perhaps you could explain to me how it is that so many doctors of foreign origin seem to have displaced American doctors in local practices? Around here we seem to have quite a number of doctors hailing from India, Mexico, Philippines, etc. NTTAWWT, but how are they able to make it? Do their families save up and front the money? Or do they also have debt.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 08:28:33

I know a lady who was an MD in Lithuania and who migrated to the US. It took years of jumping through hoops for her to be certified as an MD in the US.

As for the foreign MDs, many are trained at low cost state universities in their home countries. Also worth noting, in many countries you go straight into med school right out of high school.

Comment by palmetto
2012-08-09 08:32:27

“As for the foreign MDs, many are trained at low cost state universities in their home countries.”

That’s what I thought.

It’s not good for the health of people to have their doctors struggling under a debt burden.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-09 10:35:08

As for the foreign MDs, many are trained at low cost state universities in their home countries.

Cost of Med school at federal universities in Brazil: Free

Friends 21 day hospital stay & 8 hour back operation at public Brazilian hospital: Free (but the food sucked)

 
 
 
Comment by MiddleCoaster
2012-08-09 09:07:41

Doctors coming from India, the Philippines and probably Mexico are generally from fairly well-to-do families. They attended medical school in their home country, graduated without debt, and at some point moved to the U.S. Most had to complete a residency program in the U.S. which is a paid position. It doesn’t pay well but it’s enough to live on, especially if you have no debt.

American medical school graduates tend to gravitate toward specialties that are more lucrative and have better hours than primary care. Partly because of massive debt, and partly out of greed, I suppose. Many foreign grads are just happy to be in the U.S. and will gladly fill the primary care gap.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 09:39:17

From what my Lithuanian friend said, it’s not that easy. She had to take and pass grueling tests before she could even do a residency. She failed the tests the first time, and hit the books for over a year before trying again. And she had to wait quite a while before even being allowed to take the tests.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 10:47:44

I know a doctor or potential doctor from one of the stans of the formal soviet union and she is very bright, but is not even sure she wants to go through the grueling process. As an aside, she is married to a Navy Seal.

 
Comment by MiddleCoaster
2012-08-09 12:50:37

Oh yes, I neglected to include the ECFMG exams. They are roughly equivalent to parts 1,2 and 3 of the national medical boards all rolled together. Fun times.

 
 
 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-10 01:01:40

“…why so many doctors of foreign origin seem to have displaced American doctors in local practices?”

The US was/is suffering from a doctor shortage and following the malpractice crisis starting in 1976 made it easier for foreign graduates to set up practice in the US by lowering the credentialing standards to two years (plus passing the boards), hiring a whole lot of them for the VA, and giving them preference on visas if they practiced in “underserved” areas.

They haven’t displaced so much as taken the place of American grads who typically chose to set up practices in more lucrative locales.

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 08:41:36

The school debt sets the stage for Doctors having a profit motive in their practice ,over and above the “Do No Harm “motto . A person in debt is not a free person . This explains why its so easy for the Pharma Drug Cartel to gain such influence ,in spite of scientific evidence of the harm they are doing and all the deaths yearly that are occuring .

I don’t blame Doctors so much because they are just a product of the hijacking of all systems in the USA and I’m sure they are taught to believe that they are practicing good medicine and I’m certainly not knocking any good medicine that takes place ,especially emergency medicine .

Please don’t attack me because I’m not a Doctor ,enough of this
we get to do anything we want because you laymen don’t know what is happening and as long as we have “True Believers ” ,everything is going to be alright .

Comment by MiddleCoaster
2012-08-09 09:15:30

Oh, the tales I could tell about the arrogance of some doctors!

Med school is a microcosm of society. Maybe the smarter end of society, but not everyone is motivated by a desire to Help People. Shocking, ain’t it? ;)

Even now, there are pockets of doctors who Always Know Best. I was always highly irritated by the attitude my parents’ doctor had toward me: not that of a colleague, but an aura of superiority and condescension that made me livid.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-09 10:55:06

I don’t blame Doctors so much because they are just a product of the hijacking of all systems in the USA

True. Here’s a long article written by an American living in Brazil comparing the American, French and Brazilian health care system and touching upon the med school debt issue’s effect on types of practice decisions.

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/brazilian-public-option-health-care-beats-usa-market-hands-down

In this article I offer statistical evidence and then first-hand experience to show readers how awful the US health care “market” is compared to what other countries offer. Although many people here are happy with their health care, few of them know what they could get overseas for a quarter of the price.

Too many people who pontificate about the terrors of “socialist” health care and the deficient care in other countries versus the wonderful care in the United States simply have never been outside the United States and therefore, frankly, have no idea what they’re talking about.

They are like childless men who would nonetheless describe the experience of pregnancy and delivery in great detail, comparing hospitals to midwives. They simply have no idea what they’re talking about from personal experience and probably will never bother to confuse their ideological certainty with actual statistical evidence. So, they offer their opinions and profer any half-baked “proof” they can muster to show that they know something about which they are actually utterly ignorant

Comment by goon squad
2012-08-09 11:29:32

Yeah but dropping dead at age 50 from a treatable condition due to lack of insurance is the bedrock ideal of “American Exceptionalism”. Real bootstrapping, John Galt, rugged individualists don’t need no stinking commie health care!

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 13:49:49

That was an interesting read

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Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-09 08:50:46

Maybe that’s is Middle….screw em…I’ll work at something i love and let em sue me….I ain’t got nothing much to take and you cant put me in jail..

Get an old car, 1-2 credit cards and be a deadbeat Pathologist

Find some nice hospital that’s desperate for good help and they will overlook the fact i haven’t paid my loan for 5 years…..sound familiar????

Comment by MiddleCoaster
2012-08-09 09:17:53

The hospital might overlook it, but the company that loaned the money will hunt the deadbeat down and garnish their wages.

Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-09 09:54:13

Like i said what wages? Cant garnish much at $15 hr…and $21K more in interest each year.

He will have to shack up with the GF or else joint accounts will be touched..

So he might as well get a job he loves.

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Comment by polly
2012-08-09 12:59:03

Because all the people who go to medical school dream of living out the rest of their lives making $15 an hour and having even that amount partially confiscated by debt collectors, never having savings or a functional car or even a bank account. Yup. That is what medical students all dream about.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-09 14:43:17

Well whats the alternative? Nip and tucks for the Hampton crowd just to pay off the debt?

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-09 15:56:01

Or go into some other highly paid specialty that pays a lot. Why do you think so many American doctors go into specialties?

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-09 18:16:04

So Polly work at a job he might hate, just to make enough to pay off the student loans? sounds depressing.

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-09 18:42:48

But that is what adults do. They do what it takes to pay their debts.

And why do you assume that doctors hate being specialists who make enough money to pay their student loans?

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-09 22:49:42

Well i guess i’ve never been much of an adult then.

Lots of people do it because their families are far more important then the ok job.

I’d stiff the loan and have fun …. be a beach bum and work as a pathologist couple a days a week and let the loan die when i do.

$300K….there is no excuse for that amount of debt.

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 10:06:46

MiddleCoaster ,

Well ,you sound like a nice Doctor MiddleCoaster ,but it sounds like you got in on the old system .The fact that the Medical system might not be moviated to help people is shocking for most people ,all they know is something is wrong
and they can’t put their finger on it because they are layman that go into the mysterous world of medical practice hoping that motives are good ,while the fear factor put a patient in
a state of ‘True Believer .”

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-09 10:23:37

It was when I was in my teens that I realized that the medical profession was more about making a lot of money and enriching oneself than it was about helping people. Might have been that conspicuously consuming doctor up the street and my mother’s under-the-breath comments about him. Or it could have been my own experiences.

But there it is. One of the major reasons why I bust you-know-what to stay healthy so I can avoid medical types.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-09 14:05:27

I studied biology before moving to economics. During that time, I saw many driven pre-med students. Frankly, being an MD never really entered my mind, I wanted to go into genetics. That said, I realized quickly that I didn’t want it enough to be a doctor anyway, but certainly felt better that we have generally such driven people going into the profession.

That said, $300k is madness…

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-09 21:20:08

That said, $300k is madness…

Not if you end up making $600,000 a year.

 
 
 
 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 10:06:38

“…He seemed reasonably nonchalant about the $4,000 per month he will owe on this debt for most of his working life….”

And there’ the crux of the matter. He’s too young to understand just what he has done to himself and the lenders prey on that.

 
Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-08-09 15:36:48

Here is one way to chip away at thata pesky medical school debt.

Posted: 9:34 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 8, 2012

Former Lawnwood nurse saw doctor’s unnecessary heart surgery

By Eric Pfahler

TCPalm.com

A former registered nurse at Lawnwood Regional Medical Center & Heart Institute said he witnessed a doctor there put an unneeded stent in about half a dozen patients.

The hospital and others in the parent HCA chain are being scrutinized by the Civil Division of the U.S. attorney’s office in Miami regarding whether certain interventional cardiology services provided at 10 HCA hospitals were necessary, the company disclosed in a quarterly report filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Registered nurse C.T. Tomlinson, 60, said he worked at Lawnwood for about eight months from the summer of 2007 to the summer of 2008. There, Tomlinson said he saw Dr. Abdul Shadani insert stents in patients who did not require them. Shadani could not be reached for comment.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/news/local/former-lawnwood-nurse-witnessed-doctors-unnecessar/nQDPF/ - 73k -

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-10 00:53:32

Thirty years ago my sister graduated med school (NY and CA) with $250K debt. Where did you go to school for only 33K!?
Are you an MD, or an osteopath?

Comment by MiddleCoaster
2012-08-10 08:09:25

University of Michigan, M.D. ‘81. In-state student. My tuition was $1600 per semester. I am grateful to the big U for making medical school affordable at that time.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 07:57:01

I would like to know what party is behind the welfare and pursuit of happiness for lets say about 85 % of the population in USA .What party sees Globalism as a hijacking of the American financial systems
and a transfer of the wealth to fewer hands or foreign hands or non Citizens of USA hands ,at the the loss of jobs ,the tax base ,and the National Security of the United States Citizens .What party even wants to attack the Federal Reveral system ,which is a private Corporation that seems to run the Country ,rather than the Countrymen ? What Party isn’t moving toward a new world order that
is apparently just leaving the middle class/upper middle class worker bee of the USA in the the position of having limited options to obtain any American dream,or even survive . What party doesn’t cater to the 1% strong hands and monopolies or the insanity of the Military complex that the USA population can’t even get their head around
what they are doing and who it is benefiting? What party is going stop the madness of greedy powerful madmen ?

Comment by goon squad
2012-08-09 08:33:37

Food stamps are bankrupting this country.
Earned Income Tax Credits are bankrupting this country.
Unemployed people going on disability are bankrupting this country.

Comment by Young Deezy
2012-08-09 08:35:37

I really hope the squad is being facetious….right? Sometimes it’s kind of hard to get a good read on the squad’s politics.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 08:47:42

The goon squad must be joking . Why do people look at a effect while ignoring the real cause ?

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Comment by octal77
2012-08-10 13:03:27

…But a shrinking population means fewer sales. How will “capitalism” cope with that?…

Now we are getting to the core of the problem!

 
 
Comment by goon squad
2012-08-09 09:25:46

Wouldn’t you like to know? We certainly do appreciate your use of the definite article “the” in prefacing the squad (capitilization optional)

We are evil fascist republicans because we:
Love guns
Oppose illegal immigration
Despise race hustling pimps like Al & Jesse
Eat at Chick-Fil-A

And we are libtard democrats because we:
Believe in evolution
Think abortion should be legal
Believe climate change is caused by humanoid behavior
Think Wall Street should be heavily regulated

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Comment by palmetto
2012-08-09 09:46:58

Sounds like me.

Regarding the climate change thing, I read somewhere that the best way to reduce the carbon footprint on the planet is put on a condom.

 
Comment by goon squad
2012-08-09 10:20:57

the best way to reduce the carbon footprint on the planet is put on a condom

Non-breeders here. And adding to the subject of climate change, we have a fatalistic view of this that the humanoid species is unwilling or unable to change its behavior on a scale that could prevent or reverse its effects i.e. polar ice caps melting, but take comfort in knowing we’ll likely be dead within 50 years before it gets much worse :)

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 10:36:08

Great point palmetto . But don’t dare suggest to certain populations that procreation is creating a lot of stress for this Planet and eventual starvation for many people ,but this is a situation that is exploited by the Monopolies if anything . Over population and unemployment and starvation makes a person willing to work for anything the
‘Strong Hands” want,even exploiting child labor .

If Globalism is going to be the economic system now ,than you would need Universal rules and min wage and pollution laws enforced World wide to prevent the absurd transfer of wealth to the exploiters . They should make a law that
American Corporations can’t pay slave labor costs outside of America for starters . Of course all the Corporations and Monopolies are going to go to other Countries for their labor if allowed ,while they erode the tax base here and
the money flow here ,while they demand greater tax breaks here .
Whatever good points Globalism had it was hijacked by a system that simply enriched and transfered wealth to
“few hands ” ,because all the different Countries are playing by different rules . The Corporations and Monopolies just avoid all the labor gains and working condition gains and pollution control gains that the worker bees made in the USA the last 100 years.

Of course the poor in other Countries welcome Corporations from anywhere so they can have some jobs .
Right now the USA worker bees would most likely welcome it ,but our cost of living gets in the way of making it on 75 cents a hour wages . I am also sure at this point that Corporations are bringing the lower wage workers from other Countries to the United States as a form of ensourcing to crack the back of the USA worker .

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-09 10:52:16

Regarding the climate change thing, I read somewhere that the best way to reduce the carbon footprint on the planet is put on a condom.

In essence, that was the decision I made during my reproductive years. Deciding not to marry was another.

No regrets about either decision.

 
Comment by goon squad
2012-08-09 11:17:26

No regrets about either decision

“I try my best
To be just like I am
But everybody wants you
To be just like them”
Bob Dylan, 1965

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 11:49:34

” Everybody must get stoned .” Bob Dylan

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 12:43:56

Regarding the climate change thing, I read somewhere that the best way to reduce the carbon footprint on the planet is put on a condom.

But a shrinking population means fewer sales. How will “capitalism” cope with that?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 12:46:26

we have a fatalistic view of this that the humanoid species is unwilling or unable to change its behavior on a scale that could prevent or reverse its effects i.e. polar ice caps melting, but take comfort in knowing we’ll likely be dead within 50 years before it gets much worse

That’s right baby! Since it’ll be someone else’s problem, who gives a sh#t!

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 12:49:28

We are evil fascist republicans because we:
Love guns
Oppose illegal immigration
Despise race hustling pimps like Al & Jesse
Eat at Chick-Fil-A

Since I support oppose illegal immigration, despise Al and Jesse and eat at Chick-Fil-A (mmmm … fried chicken prepared by Fundies) what does that make me?

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 13:26:37

“Oppose illegal immigration”

Name one serious Republican national level politician that is openly against illegal immigration. Here in Arizona we’re about as anti-illegal immigration as you get, and still BOTH of our senators and ALL of our House of Reps members have supported various “comprehensive immigration reform” measures that included path to citizenship for those that came here illegally.

Heck, when E-Verify law went into effect, leaders from both parties raced back to session to ensure that it was only enforced for new employees, not existing employees. Politicians from both parties realized the economic disaster that would result from 15%-20% of the population of the state packing up and leaving all at once.

 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-09 16:41:13

But a shrinking population means fewer sales. How will “capitalism” cope with that?

It can’t. Capitalism requires constant and never-ending growth. We’re at the end.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-09 16:44:10

(The current form of) Capitalism requires constant and never-ending growth.

 
 
 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-09 16:39:28

Food stamps are bankrupting this country.
Earned Income Tax Credits are bankrupting this country.
Unemployed people going on disability are bankrupting this country.

You forgot the public school teachers.

 
 
 
Comment by Stellaralliances
2012-08-09 08:00:31

There are signs that Toronto’s condo market “is beginning to self-correct” with a sharp downturn in sales in the second quarter of 2012. Prices are likely to moderate and a record inventory of unsold units is likely to force some developers to delay or cancel some planned projects, it notes.

Vancouver’s notoriously overheated housing market is now seeing a 20 per cent decline in demand over long-term trends and prices are likely to follow.

Toronto may not be far behind: Sales remain 10 per cent above historic averages and the short supply of detached homes in particular continues to drive up prices. (The average price of a detached home in the GTA hit almost $600,000 in July. A detached in the 416 area was up to $752,4310, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board.)

Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 10:09:25

Canada is now the US of 2066. They are running out of physcial buyers even with all the incentives. I wonder if they recognize it.

Comment by bink
2012-08-09 17:04:16

Do they have flying cars?

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2012-08-09 08:51:39

Sorry to rain on the bull parade, but figures don’t lie, no matter how much liars tweet about the housing recovery.

Aug. 9, 2012, 11:41 a.m. EDT
Mortgage delinquencies rise
Slowdown in economy causes borrowers to fall behind: MBA
Stories You Might Like
Watch out for a correction — or worse
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Mortgage delinquencies rose in the second quarter to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.58% of all mortgages, up from 7.4% in the first quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday.

Delinquencies are still down from a year ago, when a seasonally adjusted 8.44% of mortgages were delinquent, according to the report. Delinquencies include mortgages that are at least one payment past due but have not yet entered the foreclosure process.

“Mortgage delinquencies were up only slightly over the last quarter,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s chief economist, in a news release.

“Perhaps more important than the small size of the increase, however, is the fact that it reversed the trend of fairly steady drops in delinquencies we have seen over the last year. This is consistent with the slowdown in the economy during the first half of the year and our stubbornly high unemployment rate,” he said.

Delinquency rates often increase between the first and second quarters of the year. They tend to go down in the first quarter, as year-end bonuses and tax refunds help borrowers get current on their mortgages, Brinkmann said. In the second quarter, rates return to a more normal level.

But this quarter, delinquencies rose beyond seasonal expectations.

Comment by Little Al
2012-08-09 09:19:41

Thanks, I’ve been mildly shorting the market since the S a P went above 1365. Now that it’s over 1400, it seems like a joke. This article confirms my hunch, but don’t be surprised if we hit 1450 before gravity begins its slow but steady arbitration.

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 10:23:53

It is not impossible to simultaneously have a huge shadow inventory and a recovering housing market. If those delinquencies are not put on the market, then those houses effectively do not exist.

2012-08-09 14:04:26

Only to you they don’t exist. Your entire financial future depends on it.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2012-08-09 16:26:37

“If those delinquencies are not put on the market, then those houses effectively do not exist.”

They exist, alright. To the extent they are Fannie and Freddie REO, the American taxpayer bears the ownership costs, in some combination of home equity losses, physical depreciation, and maintenance costs.

 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-09 08:57:42

Bing: 80% cut to Detroit water staff would ‘move city forward’

Most of the cuts - an estimated 1,144 positions — would be eliminated through job reorganization and retraining that would allow employees to do more, Director Sue McCormick said. Currently, there are 257 job classifications at the water department. This plan would reduce that to 31.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120808/METRO/208080439/1409/Proposal-Cut-80-Detroit-water-dept-staff

About freakin time. Nobody should ever say again.. “it’s not my job i’m union”

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 10:04:57

Or perhaps because Detroit has shrunk so much they don’t need so many employees anymore?

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 10:18:52

Detroit is messed up in so many ways it isn’t even funny.

 
 
 
Comment by Little Al
2012-08-09 09:14:12

There’s an article from CNN today about a “baby-boom” recovery based on the premise that the “Great Recession” has left a great deal of pent-up demand. Eventually, young people are going to move away from home in droves and start families they put off due to poor job opportunities in the dark days of the recession. Add to that the news on CNBC on Squawk Box this morning about a good number of California cities either going bankrupt or in great distress. One of them being El Monte where I teach. Add to that the uncertainty of the fiscal cliff and the low-brow political posturing that both Republicans and Democrats are guilty of making the possibility of the fiscal cliff not unconceivable. Add to that, stock prices are incredibly elevated based on the free heroin to the economy on the horizon by QE 3, ECB bailouts, and Chinese fiscal stimulus because they are ready to shoot their wad with their highly touted low inflation.

With that, I predict the true bottom of the housing market will be late 2012 or early 2013. These bottoms or tops may not mean too much. I sold my house in November of 2005, and I could feel a palpable Wil E Coyote moment where most of America woke up to the unrealistic pricing in real estate. It was obvious that volume was way down, and I had to aggressively take 50 k off the sales price I could have easily made three months earlier to spark some interest, and yes I did get it sold. The charts say that the top didn’t occur until Spring of 2006, but the incredibly reduced volumes and anecdotal evidence I saw doesn’t figure into their analysis.

Back to the main point of this rant. There are many uncertainties that have to play out for the bottom to form, but it’s good to know we’re getting close to a bottom. If I know anything about human behavior, the party won’t really get started again until there is such an upswing that newly formed families are not going to be getting killer deals because the meth-laced kool aid will be flowing in pretty waterfalls out of the punch bowl as the powers that be ignite a new bubble. One thing is certain. Sales volume at the true bottom will be quite slow and most interest in real estate will have faded to near flatline.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 10:29:12

It was 6 years to the bottom of the S&L disaster.

Pent up demand also needs pent up money. Inflation over the last 4 years literally halved the buying power of the dollar. I saw at least 50% price increases in retail goods and services in my region. Most people I know did not see their paychecks increase the same amount.

There probably will be another bubble. It’s been that way for the last 40 years.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 11:04:36

turkey lurkey ,

I have noticed all the price increases myself . Some of the
increases have been more than 100% in just 4 years .Notice how they are putting food in smaller containers and they are giving less for more money . I have noticed restaurants really cutting back on portion size ,while raising the prices .

I see this as price fixing and fake inflation because God forbid that Corporations/Monopolies don’t get to raise their prices while at the same time reduce their costs by screwing the worker now .

People don’t seem to get that Monopolies are evil and the final goal is to be able to destroy all competition and than be able to
charge whatever price they want ,as well as give any wage they want .I find it laughable that anybody thinks we have competition anymore ,or anything that resembles a market that is based on supply and demand based on the bulk of the population .

A lot of people believe that this Country was set up to be destroyed when they created the Federal Reserve in 1913. Even Woodrow Wilson felt in retrospect that he had made a mistake .
I just don’t understand why mistakes can’t be corrected and to hell with powers that have a vested interest in the status quo .

Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 12:22:28

Slim Jims just went from 16/box to 15/box. Within the past month or so.

If the Federal Reserve destroyed the country in 1913, then what the heck happened from 1946-1985 or so? Did the Federal Reserve take a 30-year vacay from destroying countries?

Or maybe this isn’t my grandfather’s Federal Reserve.

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Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-09 16:46:23

I couldn’t muster the energy to make dinner last night, so off we go to our old and delicious standby: burritos in the Mission.

Taqueria take-out for 2 adults and 2 kids = $28. No drinks, nothing fancy.

Sheesh, when I first moved here a burrito was only a couple of bucks, and they were as big as a fat guinea pig.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 20:27:09

Oxide ….I think from 1946 to 1985 it was a different World . No doubt after World War 2 there was a great need for expansion and growth in the USA,without much competition from other Countries ,or monopolies either ( a golden era really ) .
Also the Glass-Steagall Act kept Investment firms and
Commerical Banks seperated ,as they should of been for all those years up to 1999 when they made the mistake of getting rid of that law .

In the 50’s and 60’s everybody use to be worried about automation taking the jobs .Nobody ever dreamed that
it would be Communist Countries and Third World Nation slave labor that would take the jobs and manufacturing ,or that the Politicians would sell out the worker bees of America and become traitors to the welfare of the USA, because of the higest bidder lobby system that has encouraged Monopolies .

 
 
 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 12:31:33

I just haven’t seen that kind of inflation.

I’m still buying milk for $2 a gallon or less, bread for $1 a loaf, and ribeye (when on sale) for $5.50-$6 a lb, all like it was a decade ago.

I’m again paying under $3.50 a gallon for gas, like I was 5 years ago.

I think my electricity rate is up about 15% over the last 5 years.

In the mean time, flat panel TVs are down from thousands to hundreds.

House prices here in Phoenix are back to what they were 15-20 years ago, 60% off peak of 2007.

Wal-mart is still selling Wranglers jeans for $15 a pair, just like they were 10 years ago.

Yeah, now I get 3 pints for my $2 that I used to get a full half gallon of ice cream for. That is increase from $.50 a pint to $.67 a pint. An increase of 33% over what I was paying a decade ago.

I can still buy store brand cola for $2 for a 12-pack. Way back in the 80s I remember it being a big deal that we could buy King Cola for $.99 a 6-pack.

I remember a decade ago waiting for Chips Ahoy cookies to go on sale for 2 for $5. Last week’s sale price for Chips Ahoy? 2 packages for $5.

A decade ago I could get 90-10 ground beef for $3 a lb on sale. Last week I paid $3 a lb, on sale.

Used cars are the one thing I’ll admit is WAY up.

Also Verizon’s new family shared data plan increased my bill cell phone bill a good 25%, but only because I used to have VERY low voice minutes before, and they changed it to unlimited… which is more service (that I didn’t really need) for more money.

Oh, and Disneyland has almost tripled prices in 10 years, but the parks are in SOOOOOOOO much better condition. I have a picture of the ride status board from 8 years ago that showed 8 of the top 10 rides were all closed at the same time.

Seven years ago I went on a honeymoon cruse through the Caribbean for $700 per person for a week. Back then, $100 a night for a cruis was considered an excellent deal. That same cruise today (well, booked for next summer since it was July when we lent last time) would be…. just looked it up… $719 per person.

Four years ago, Applebees introduced the 2-for-$20 promotion offering appetizer and 2 entrees for, yes $20. Now it is all the way up to $20.

Where is all this inflation you guys are seeing?

Comment by Pete
2012-08-09 13:22:59

“I just haven’t seen that kind of inflation.
I’m still buying milk for $2 a gallon or less, bread for $1 a loaf, and ribeye (when on sale) for $5.50-$6 a lb, all like it was a decade ago.”

Overall, I notice the same as you. Most things haven’t gone up much, if at all. 2-litre soda bottles are still easily findable at 99c. I thought this was a good deal back in 1999. Bread however is a different story here. Good bread, anyway. In ‘05, a 16oz loaf of whole grain bread could be had for $1.50, now you can only find that during extreme markdowns. Usually it’s $3.00 or more. Peanut butter is up alot, though that seems drought-in-the-south related. But the other basics, tomatos, broccoli, cucumber, onion, tortillas, have barely risen over the last 5 years. Alot of our fruit and veggies are grown nearby her in Ca, so maybe that’s a factor too. The deal of the century is the 5-lb Costco shredded Mozzarella bags for 9.99. Two bucks a pound! At any grocery store, or discount outlet, you’re looking at $4/lb as the best case scenario. Now if I could only get Costco to start carrying the 4-litre Carlo Rossi wine jugs again, or the Franzia boxes I’d be set. They haven’t carried it for years, as they’re trying to attract a ‘certain clientele’ for their wines.

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 13:27:12

For one thing, rib eyes in my neck of the woods are around $9/lb, except when on sale.

Brand name colas are $4+ for a 12 pack, except when on sale.

Milk is $3, except when on sale

And yes, Disneyland pass prices are through the roof, which is in part why we haven’t gone since 2008.

Restaurants still have the 2 for $20 specials, but they seem to be less “nice” than they used to be, while the rest of the menu items are a lot more expensive than they used to be.

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Comment by goon squad
2012-08-09 14:29:43

The price of fresh fruits and vegetables has gone up at least 50% in the last 5 years.

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 18:22:56

Yes, junk bread is still a buck ,junk Cola can be bought on sale ,but the good stuff has gone up . Look at the price for paper goods now ,those prices have doubled in the past 5 years .At my local stores some produce has remained the same on sale but most has gone up at least 50%. In fact buying the sales is most likely the way to go . Eggs went up and milk tends to stay about the same price . Chocolate went up in price . Oh, dog food went up in price ,and lets not forget rents and cost for medical care . Gas goes up and down but it’s higher overall than 5 years ago .My cable
phone and internet went up 50% in the last 5 years ,and the utilities/water have risen and additional taxes has been added and increased on the monthly bill .

And service has gone down ,so that’s another way of giving you less . Did anybody get a increase in the price of
medications( I wouldn’t know ,I don’t take any)?

I noticed anything that is real wholesome food is much more expensive . That fake mararoni and cheese that I love so much went from 33 cents to about a buck now .

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-09 14:09:55

A major difference however, is that during correction, we were still building at a much faster pace than during this correction.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2012-08-09 09:17:38

The universe doesn’t care what you believe.
The wonderful thing about science is that it
doesn’t ask for your faith, it just asks
for your eyes.

– Randall Munroe

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 09:22:07

Could not agree more. Now if people would not pass off religion and political beliefs as science, we would be better off.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 09:34:33

From an interview with Dr. James Lovelock, (June 23rd with the Toronto Sun) the father of the global warming theory and now disputing it for the same reasons I have for about six years on this board: “It just so happens that the green religion is now taking over from the Christian Religion.”

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 09:51:53

So wanting clean air and water is akin to religious fanaticism?

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 10:09:19

Why don’t you read his interview? But wanting clean air and water is not if. But expecting people to completely ignore the cost of electricity because you cannot not put any pollutants in the air or water even when they pose no risk to public health is Especially when the pollutant is as benign as Co2. Just calling it a pollutant strikes me as absurd when its more beneficial to life than any threat. Fifteen years of increased co2 in the air and static temperatures. The models predicted a large increase in global temperatures by now, leading Dr, Lovelock to question whether the previous increase in temperature was due to Co2 and I have concurred for over six years. I understand why it took him so long, since he essentially was the original advocate of the theory. I thought it might have some validity in 1998 but then the cooling began.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 10:35:00

But expecting people to completely ignore the cost of electricity because you cannot not put any pollutants in the air or water even when they pose no risk to public health

You mean like the brown cloud over Denver that prompts the authorities to issue warnings to stay indoors?

Utilities in Colorado have been mandated to generate 10% of all power from renewable resources. At first they screamed that it would be unachievable, a disaster.

Fast forward to today. 17% of all power is from renewables. We have low utility rates (~7 cents / kwh in my hometown).

Even if there is no “global warming” I think we would be better off with cleaner air in our cities.

 
Comment by goon squad
2012-08-09 10:40:51

Commie! Enjoying our Front Range ozone action alert day today? Driving down 225 yesterday the foothills looked like a hazy brown mirage on the horizon :)

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 10:42:32

You really think the brown haze is from utilities and not vehicles?

 
Comment by CharlieTango
2012-08-09 11:42:38

The name given by the Chumash tribe of Native Americans for the area now known as Los Angeles translates to “the valley of smoke.

When big mountains block the flow of air pollutants become visible, not all are caused by man.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-09 11:56:22

I like seeing, feeling and smelling pollution. It shows me that man is making real progress and finally taking control and exerting dominance over the earth as God intended.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 12:35:43

You really think the brown haze is from utilities and not vehicles?

Duh! It’s from all of them.

I just don’t get why people don’t want to breathe cleaner air.

 
Comment by Pete
2012-08-09 14:44:31

“The name given by the Chumash tribe of Native Americans for the area now known as Los Angeles translates to “the valley of smoke.”

No doubt true. I wonder if they have an ancient equivalent in Beijing.

 
Comment by Little Al
2012-08-09 17:48:41

The collapse of the Anazasi and Maya civilizations were directly related to human created environmental problems. I once asked Jared Diamond at a book signing at the UCLA book fair if he would write a book about nations who have had a successful environmental record for the good of the world. He gave me an amazed look like the idea was really great but I haven’t seen any book yet. Come on Jared. Any time now

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-10 01:13:54

It’s “valley of LITTLE smokes”.

 
 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 10:51:40

James HANSON is the expert.

As for James Lovelock, the “maverick scientist who became a guru to the environmental movement with his “Gaia” theory of the Earth as a single organism”? Are you kidding, this guy never had any credibility in the first place.

http://www.firstthings.com/blogs/secondhandsmoke/2012/04/23/global-warming-hysteria-gaia-father-extinguishes-his-hysteria/

““The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago.”

Ah, you mean not the way YOU predicted it would, eh?

But the lie at the end seals the deal:

“Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising…”

Not. Rising? He is either lying or losing it in his old age. Every scientific agency around the world has confirmed it IS rising.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 11:33:48

Sorry it is not a lie and it is has been 14 years. They have been playing with numbers to try to hide it and that was at the heart of the e-mail scandal awhile ago but the simple fact is that there is much more co2 in the air but flat global temperatures. the computer models have failed completely. Thus, when you break it down and he is being very honest if increased co2 has not caused meaningful global warming despite the models predicting that it would be about 1.5 degrees by now, maybe co2 was not the primary or even significant cause for the rise that did occur between 1978-98. The science is far from being settled in this matter. Hansen is an alarmist joke.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-09 11:51:47

When I tell Brazilians that climate change is an issue that divides along political lines in the USA they don’t get the concept. Then when I re-explain it they look at me like my country must be a little nuts.

Opinions on climate change do not divide along political lines in Brazil and they don’t understand why they would.

This makes me wonder why climate change opinions divide along political lines in America. Is it Democrats or Republicans who most forced this division? Who has the most interest in forcing this division and why?

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 12:00:14

“When I tell Brazilians that climate change is an issue that divides along political lines in the USA they don’t get the concept.”

Oh, if it were only climate change that we divided opinion on political lines.

Lowering tax rates increases economic activity, increasing total tax receipts. You know, the whole a smaller slice of a large pie is actually more pie, argument.

Heck, we’re so far gone, we can’t even agree on what fiat money is, where it comes from, or what gives it value.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 12:03:25

Why would anyone in Brazil be against the the global warming theory? Part of the program is a massive transfer of wealth from the developed world to the undeveloped world to “deal” with the “consequences” of global warming.

Why shouldn’t the U.S. and the middle class taxpayers fix India’s electric grid by paying for solar and wind so companies such as IBM that outsourced jobs to India will have a secure power source?

 
Comment by goon squad
2012-08-09 12:08:11

To reference another HBB poster, it is because the “eeeeevil oil companies” donate more $ to one party than the other.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-09 12:12:22

Why would anyone in Brazil be against the the global warming theory? Part of the program is a massive transfer of wealth from the developed world to the undeveloped world.

You’re assuming something that isn’t. Brazilians don’t know what the “program” is. They are not basing their opinion on any potential cash windfall. They don’t know about it. And they are not basing their opinions on politics either.

They are mostly basing their opinion on the common sense idea that massive global pollution can and probably is affecting climate.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 12:20:23

I would like to see any data you have that they are unaware that the the global climate summits were not talking about massive wealth transfers. I was in papers all over the world, in fact leaders were upset because we were only talking about 100 billion to begin.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 12:30:18

LOL Did a cursory look and found stories going back as far as eight years ago about the Brazilian president signing a law to solicit donations from the world to combat global warming to the tune of at least $21 billion for Brazil alone. Yea the Brazilians know nothing about the money.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 12:35:09

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25972533-environment

Link. Or course after copenhagen the 100 billion was a bill and not a donation and news of that you can be sure was all over Brazil.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-09 12:35:24

I would like to see any data you have that they are unaware that the the global climate summits were not talking about massive wealth transfers.

Obviously you are not familiar with the typical Brazilian. The ones I’ve spoken to have no idea of the “program”.

But that is beside my point that Brazilian’s opinion on climate change does not divide along political lines.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-09 12:47:31

Yea the Brazilians know nothing about the money.

The ones that I’ve talked to don’t know about “the money”. But again, you are for some reason sidetracking and missing the main point. The main point is that in general, Brazilians don’t draw their opinion on climate change along political party lines. Why does this main point bother you so? Because it may lead people to believe that in America the Republican establishment is behind the political division of the issue? And why would they be?

Some Brazilians believe in climate change and some don’t but most of their beliefs are not based on their political parties or potential cash.

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 13:51:54

Which part of

“…Every scientific agency around the world has confirmed it IS rising…”

is not true?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 14:04:56

Which part of

“…Every scientific agency around the world has confirmed it IS rising…”

is not true?

Allow me to share a little anecdote.

Many Fundies hold tightly to the “Young Earth” doctrine, which insists that the universe is only 6000 years old.

So, you ask them, how can we see stars and galaxies that are millions of light years away? Their light shouldn’t have reached us yet.

So how do they respond to that?

They pull out a crackpot scientist who says that the speed of light used to be much higher than it is now.

Presto! Problem solved!

 
Comment by CharlieTango
2012-08-09 14:25:59

Which part of

“…Every scientific agency around the world has confirmed it IS rising…”

is not true?

Every part is untrue. There is no consensus, agencies can’t confirm the data have been altered then lost, the rise stopped 15 years ago, …

http://tinyurl.com/8c64rny

 
Comment by howiewowie
2012-08-09 15:17:51

The director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies is an alarmist joke? Are you kidding?

His predictions from 25 years ago didn’t go far enough. It turns out things are worse.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/climate-change-is-here–and-worse-than-we-thought/2012/08/03/6ae604c2-dd90-11e1-8e43-4a3c4375504a_story.html

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-09 15:54:38

The reason that global warming is divided among political lines is that one party is the party of fossil fuels and the other party is the party of renewable fuels.

Of course there’s a lot of overlap and gray area.

 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-09 16:48:28

The cool thing about science is that it’s true whether you believe it or not.

 
 
Comment by Pete
2012-08-09 13:44:41

“From an interview with Dr. James Lovelock, (June 23rd with the Toronto Sun) the father of the global warming theory and now disputing it for the same reasons I have”

From the article: “Lovelock still believes anthropogenic global warming is occurring and that mankind must lower its greenhouse gas emissions, but says it’s now clear the doomsday predictions, including his own (and Al Gore’s) were incorrect.”

Seems he isn’t disputing it at all, just pointing out that his doomsday numbers may have been off, and that many “greens” treat GW like religious nuts treat religion. All fair points. But you are misrepresenting his position, at least based on what I just read.

Also from the article: “Having observed that global temperatures since the turn of the millennium have not gone up in the way computer-based climate models predicted…”

Read carefully. This is not implying that global temps as a whole haven’t gone up, just that they’ haven’t gone up as much as their models predicted. I wouldn’t expect these computer models to be that accurate anyway, there are too many unforeseeable variables at work. Also, IMO, we should be modeling for worst-case scenarios, as long as we identify them as such.

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Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 13:54:44

…and those excerpts were about to be my next point.

Thanks Pete.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 14:52:50

This year is colder on a global basis than 1998. That is a fact and you cannot find any data to dispute it. Proponents now like to say things like the average is still going up. But that is why I used the example of the clothes iron yesterday. It is no suprise that it is taking the world time to cool off and some of the hottest years will occur even over the next few years. Sunspots which hit another peak 2012 to 2013 and have occurred in the greatest numbers over the last fifty years in 8000 years combined with the pacific decadal oscillator being in a warm cycle up to a few years ago did warm the earth. Was man made co2 a minor contributor? I never argued otherwise.However, we are about to go into a period of very low sunspot activity and I am confident that nature is going to swamp manmade activity and we are going cooler. Got popcorn?

 
Comment by Pete
2012-08-09 15:27:29

“This year is colder on a global basis than 1998.”

Are the official measurements for 2012 all in? (No). Does your 1998 number include the whole year? I’m guessing yes, but correct me if I’m wrong. As for this year, most weather stations are in the northern hemisphere, which from January until now has had mainly winter and spring, the coldest months.

In other words, do you mean that Jan-July of 1998 was warmer than Jan-July of 2012, or was all of ‘98 warmer on average that what we have officially recorded so far in 2012? If the latter, you should keep in mind that the hottest temps of this year have not yet been officially entered yet.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 15:50:15

I am talking about the year to date. If you really want to see how the data is being manipulated you need to go to websites such as whatsupwiththat.com but even using Hansen’s manipulated data 1998’s global average of land and ocean temperatures is significantly higher than this year. We have desperate global warming advocates trying to cherry pick data to support their claims. Why just use the 48 states maybe because Alaska has been significantly cooler than average. O.K. I will play if you leave out Texas the rest of the 48 states were significantly hotter in 1934 prior to C02 even being player.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 15:53:48

Sorry: wattsupwiththat.com

 
Comment by Pete
2012-08-09 16:12:44

“However, we are about to go into a period of very low sunspot activity and I am confident that nature is going to swamp manmade activity and we are going cooler. Got popcorn?”

As I said yesterday, good on the sunspot activity! We should take any cooling that comes our way as a gift. A short term one.

“Proponents now like to say things like the average is still going up.”

The average, as far as climate is concerned, is what’s important. Our planet’s dynamic system reacts to it. Taken at its most simple level, a 1-degree temperature change is not going to hurt a corn crop. But that change may well cause weather pattern changes that throw rainfall patterns completely out of whack. Some agricultural areas can deal with that, sort of, most cannot.

No doubt we will also see short term cooling spells as this plays out long term.

 
Comment by Pete
2012-08-09 16:37:27

I did check out wattupwiththat.com. The story about temperature measurement was strictly about the United States and how the noaa doesn’t take into account heat islands and stuff like that (they do, as far as I’ve heard). I didn’t navigate the site, but if you wan’t to point us to something there regarding solely global temps….

There was also this headline: “Wind power not coming through for California – power alert issued by the CAISO”

From article: “The graph from CAISO tells the story, wind power has tumbled when it is most needed:”—followed by a graph representing watts produced and hour of the day.

I do not understand the “when it is most needed” part. Wind generation goes to the grid, unless it’s someone’s residential windmill. It really doesn’t matter when the wind blows, as opposed to solar, which is generally residential, so it matters there a great deal. If they are trying to say that wind doesn’t live up to its wattage hype, then by all means, they should make the case. But telling me that wind power fails because of the wind isn’t blowing at the right time is the opposite of helpful.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 20:40:33

Come on you guys ,its not favorable for big business to have any limitations on being able to pollute the World
or rape the World for greater profits ,without regulation .

Normal people just don’t want pollution and would like to have cheaper and cleaner energy costs and limit pollution . Its big business that doesn’t want to go along with that program .The toxins in the air and water and land are making people sick more and more these days .Humans just can’t throw off the harmful effects ,so this no doubt increases the medical costs . People just can’t thrive eating crap food either .

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2012-08-09 16:39:52

Thomas Nelson drops ‘The Jefferson Lies’ book over factual errors
3:22 PM, Aug 9, 2012
Written by Bob Smietana
The Tennessean

Nashville-based Thomas Nelson Publishers has canceled a controversial bestseller by David Barton, an influential evangelical leader, because the book contains historical errors.

Barton’s book, “The Jefferson Lies,’’ claims to expose liberal myths about Thomas Jefferson, author of the Declaration of Independence and the nation’s third president.

But a group of conservative scholars says Barton’s take on Jefferson is factually untrue. And a group of ministers from Cincinnati called on Nelson to cancel the book.

Casey Francis Harrell, director of corporate communications for Thomas Nelson, said that the publisher had gotten a number of complaints about the book. The publisher reviewed those complaints and found enough errors to cancel it.

“Because of these deficiencies, we decided that it was in the best interest of our readers to cease its publication and distribution,” said Harrell.

Barton stands by his book and said that Thomas Nelson never mentioned any concerns about the book, which was published in April and made the New York Times bestseller list.

“All I got was an email saying it was canceled,” he said. “It was a complete surprise.”

The book is still available for sale on Amazon.com and other retailers. But Harrell said that Thomas Nelson has stopped any new shipments of the books from their warehouses and is recalling the book from retailers. She also said that online retailers have been asked to stop selling the e-book version.

The publisher hasn’t decided what to do with the recalled books.

Barton is president of Wallbuilders, an Aledo, Texas-based conservative group that says it wants to reclaim America’s forgotten Christian history.

An early press release for the book, put out by Thomas Nelson in May, potrayed Barton as battling revisionist history to tell the true story of Jefferson.

“History books routinely teach that Jefferson was an anti-Christian secularist, rewriting the Bible to his liking, fathering a child with one of his slaves, and little more than another racist, bigoted colonist — but none of those claims are actually true,” the press released claimed.

 
 
Comment by Liz Pendens
2012-08-09 09:51:29

Then how can we have an entire financial system/society based on bull$hit?

Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-08-09 11:26:21

Because we’re the apex predator in a gentle environment. This kind of universal stupidity would wipe out a colony on the moon or mars.

Comment by ahansen
2012-08-10 01:40:01

Dan’s periodic screeds against the scientific evidence of climatological (and yes, anthropogenicly-induced) tipping point are predicated on money and politics, not on the science or any apparent understanding of its underlying principals.

It’s not about semantic argument, nor is it about irrelevant analogies like hot irons, it’s about a peer-reviewed (and overwhelmingly accepted) body of multi-disciplined evidence. As in facts. Not interpretation, not suppositions, not simplistic understandings of systems and geologic consequence fed to small minds by self-interested “think” tanks.

But keep on preaching the word. What do those stupid paleo-dendrologists, astrophysicists, statisticians and programmers, geologists and oceanological meteorologists know about complex systems and interrelations anyway?

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-09 09:26:43

Slim’s new book is out — Finance for Freelancers.

Comment by polly
2012-08-09 11:01:36

Hey, congratulations, slim.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 11:37:46

Good going Slim .

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 12:32:26

Very cool! Congrats!

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-08-09 13:13:18

Idea for your next book:

“How to deal with dumb-azz customers, and resist the urge to choke the crap out of them”.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-09 13:35:46

X-GSfixr, are we on the same telepathic channel or something? You’ve sized up Slim’s Thursday afternoon foul mood perfectly.

 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-09 13:43:39

Congratulations Slim.

 
Comment by MiddleCoaster
2012-08-09 14:23:57

Great news, Slim!

Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-09 16:49:44

Awesome Slim! That’s a big accomplishment. I published a book about 14 years ago. It was a lot of work.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2012-08-09 09:46:28

Let me see.

No issues with Black Panthers who can intimidate votes with clubs outside polling station.

But some extra time for the members of the military who may be deployed to vote…

Nah.

—————————————

Obama Attempts To Suppress Ohio Military Vote
IBD Editorials | Aigust 7, 2012

The administration likes to use soldiers for photo-ops but now, in a critical battleground state, they want to restrict the extra time for service members who protect our right to vote to cast theirs.

The administration showed its true appreciation for military service when, on July 17, the Obama for America Campaign, the Democratic National Committee and the Ohio Democratic Party filed suit in that swing state to strike down part of the state’s law governing voting by members of the military that gives them extra time to cast their ballots.

Ohio is one of 32 states that allows early voting in person or by mail without an excuse.

Until recently Ohio state law allowed early voting in person for everyone up until the Monday before the Tuesday election. The GOP-controlled legislature moved that deadline back to the Friday before, retaining the Monday deadline for military personnel.

Comment by polly
2012-08-09 11:05:15

Wait, the state has a rule for everyone for early voting. Then they change the rule to make it harder for everyone to vote except members of the military. The administration objects and it is an attack on the military? Isn’t is just an attack on the state making it harder for most people to vote?

Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 11:25:31

Polly,
Remember: Reps = angels. Dems = demons.

When viewed through that political lens, this attack on Dems makes perfect sense.

Of course, without that lens you may ask questions like yours.

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-08-09 12:13:12

Don’t confuse his talking points with the facts.

It’s amazing Republimentalists carry so much sway, considering how persecuted they are.

Who whines more? Republimentalists whining about how the Godless Heathens are persecuting them, or the bankster/1%er/so-called Producer-class whining about Obama/OWS saying bad things about them?

Really. It’s just embarrasing.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 12:31:03

“Republimentalists”

You should trademark that! :-D

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Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-08-09 12:36:49

Don’t know if it should be a trademark (since it’s not a good or service), or copyrighted.

Need to get Polly’s expert opinion. And how to copyright it.

If I do it, and make any money from it, I’ll throw a HBB get together, and pay for the dinner and alcohol.

And the cab rides. :)

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 13:58:51

Republimentalists©

There. Copyrighted. That’s all you have to, Just make sure you make explicit claim to it right here and you’re done.

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-09 16:08:28

To get a copyright, you just have to start claiming it.

Trademarks have to be registered.

Either one I think works with a name.

Or, you can, you know, just use it. The democrats are terrible at branding. They aren’t going to steal it.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-09 16:51:33

How do I copyright a name, title, slogan, or logo?
Copyright does not protect names, titles, slogans, or short phrases. In some cases, these things may be protected as trademarks. Contact the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office, 800-786-9199,

http://www.copyright.gov/help/faq/faq-protect.html#title

 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 12:37:38

It is a dirty election. Protecting the Catholic church’s first amendment rights becomes a war on women and attempt to deny birth control to all women.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 13:17:52

IIRC, it was only Catholic affiliated organizations (like hospitals) that would be required. The local parish and Archdiocesan offices would not be required. So technically the “church” was not being compelled to provide birth control.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 13:30:48

Their first amendment rights should not apply to institutions they run? What is wrong with free choice? Your church employer doesn’t provide birth control either change the employer or pay for it yourself.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 13:52:02

They don’t run them. The organizations are 100% independent.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 13:55:33

And in many cases these organizations butt heads with the local Bishop, who has no authority over them. Catholic Charities is a good example of this.

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 13:56:57

The church does not have to hand out birth control.

The church does have to provide health care insurance to its employees. That health care has to cover birth control.

What is wrong with free choice? Really? The answer to that is soooooo obvious. Free choice has created a healthcare dis-system where 44 million Americans don’t have health care insurance. Free choice created a system where another 45 million Americans are on Medicaid, and another 50 million are on medicare.

So, HALF the population is either on government health care, or has no health care coverage.

Free choice has created a system where health care is twice as expensive, per person, as the next most expensive country, and still we have far worse average outcomes than those nearest spenders….. because profit is far more important than standard of care.

You know what? Churches that run primary education schools are also required to teach Darwinian Evolution in their science classes.

 
 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2012-08-09 11:43:15

Linked from the Drudge Report:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 43%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.”

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-09 11:54:01

It is interesting because after the jobs report Obama has a brief bounce and actually was ahead for a couple of days before dropping backdown. I don’t think rising gasoline prices are helping. But if you don’t have a sensible energy policy that is what happens. Around 100 a barrel oil is like body blows to the economy day after day. You do not get a quick knock out but it takes its toll.

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-08-09 12:20:34

Go Mitt-ster!!!

Get elected, and put all of those sleaze-ball parasites in their place.

Then maybe people will finally wake up, and find out that THEY are considered a sleaze-ball parasite by the Bankster/1%ers.

“Damn wretched refuse……they should pay US for the privlege of protecting our investments, by going overseas and shooting furriners……”

Comment by polly
2012-08-09 12:39:13

Or he could tell us what tax “loop holes” he is planning to close now to keep the rate cuts “revenue neutral” as promised. You know, just so people could check to see if the numbers work out.

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Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-08-09 13:04:10

Details, mere details…….

Not enough for us to worry our little pin-heads over. Not when the godless heathens are picketing Chick-fil-a.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-09 13:19:40

Or he could tell us what tax “loop holes” he is planning to close now

Revealing that would probably be as damaging as releasing those pesky tax returns.

 
Comment by howiewowie
2012-08-09 15:20:42

Who cares??? He is pro life and will sign an executive order on his first day taking funding away from overseas abortions!!

^^Single and only issue that matters to traditional Catholic voters.^^

 
 
 
 
Comment by Get Stucco
2012-08-10 00:02:38

Sad for you, Twoti-fruitti, that Obama is gonna kick some butt in November. Even Faux News admits Obama’s lead is massive and growing. The Republitards ought to save a few billion dollars for the 2016 presidential race, as this one is starting to look like a lost cause for them.

Fox News poll: Obama’s lead grows as Romney’s support slips
By Dana Blanton
Published August 09, 2012

President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 9 percentage points in the latest Fox News poll. (AP)

Mitt Romney has had a tough couple of weeks on the campaign trail — and it shows in the latest Fox News poll. After a barrage of campaign ads, negative news coverage of his overseas trip and ongoing talk about his tax returns, Romney’s favorable rating and standing in the trial ballot have declined. As a result, President Obama has opened his biggest lead since Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee.

The president would take 49 percent of the vote compared to Romney’s 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup if the election were held today, the poll found. Last month, Obama had a four percentage-point edge of 45 percent to 41 percent. This marks the second time this year the president has had a lead outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.

Obama’s advantage comes largely from increased support among independents, who now pick him over Romney by 11 percentage points. Some 30 percent of independents are undecided. Last month, Obama had a four-point edge among independents, while Romney had the advantage from April through early June.

There was also an uptick in support for Obama among women, blacks and Democrats.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-09 12:16:25

In response to CIBT’s comment yesterday about CA perhaps having ~50k additional foreclosures coming (if not more):

There were 47,190 homes sold in the State of California in the month of June 2012.

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-home-value/r_9/#metric=mt%3D24%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D5%26rt%3D14%26r%3D9%252C394806%252C395057%252C395025%26el%3D0

It puts 50,000 homes in context.

Would you rather:

a) Lenders continue to foreclose on deadbeat borrowers (thus continue to have high foreclosure rates), and steadily decrease non-current loan rates back to normal levels; or
b) Have lenders slow-play the problem, like in Florida, Nevada, New York and New Jersey, thus having lower foreclosure numbers, but high and stagnant numbers of non-current loans?

Path “a”, the current path of California, gets us to a healthy market much faster than path “b”, which is making some of these other markets appear more healthy than they actually are.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-08-09 14:15:55

Hey Pimp,

There are an estimated 25 MILLION excess empty housing units in the US today.

I wonder how many are in CA?

Comment by Professor Bear
2012-08-09 16:35:08

Suppose CA has the same number of empty homes per capita as other U.S. states. Under this assumption, you could just multiply 25M by the ratio of CA population (37,691,912 - Jul 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau) to US population (311,591,917 - Jul 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau) to get an estimate:

25,000,000*(37,691,912/311,591,917) = 3,024,141.

Since the bubble was worse in CA than many other places, I suspect this estimate is conservatively low. Perhaps the CA shadow inventory is far larger than reported?

Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-08-09 16:41:31

“Perhaps the CA shadow inventory is far larger than reported?”

Unquestionably.

And I’d wager that San Diego county is ground zero for the defaulted inventory considering all the lies we hear about SD and how “strong” it is there.

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Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-09 16:53:01

wonder how many are in CA?

Still want to know how to find an accurate # for a specific area.

Using trulia, I get a low number of REOs in San Francisco county. Seems too low. Foreclosure radar and realtytrac show high # of NODs, but very low # of REOs.

Comment by Get Stucco
2012-08-09 21:43:26

The lying Realtors® and their minions in the MSM, academia and government are all doing their collective best to hide the inventory overhang from the public’s view, as revealing the facts might “crash the market.”

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Comment by eastcoaster
2012-08-09 12:51:13

Well, the appraisal came back today. $240,000. That’s what I paid for the house in 2010 (and, at the time, it appraised for $247,000). I haven’t done a ton of upgrading to it, but enough to make it much more livable for me (until I can really do gut/replace projects). The stuff I did was wallpaper removal/painting, new carpeting/kitchen flooring, new bath vanities/toilets, etc. The bathrooms and kitchen are very dated, but solidly functional.

So, I’m pleased because the # works for my refi. But it’s clear proof of the value decline over the past 2 years.

Comment by eastcoaster
2012-08-09 13:21:39

Oh, yeah, and installed new heating/cooling system. That was a big upgrade.

 
 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-08-09 13:01:52

Got back from the funeral yesterday. The guy wasn’t exactly a “friend” (or even one of my favorite people), but as they say, we spent a lot of time eating the same dirt. Saw a lot of old friends/former co-workers. Found out another one of my old buddies died a couple of months ago.

Can only contrast the treatment that bargaining unit guys got for substance abuse problems, compared to salaried-exempts.

(Mandatory drug tests started in “Safety-Critical” aviation positions in about 1990)

When a drug/alcohol test for a Bargaining unit/Union Thug comes up positive, his options were…..mandatory 30 day unpaid leave, mandatory drug/alcohol counseling for a minimum of two years, mandatory monthly drug tests for minimum of two years. Drop the ball anywhere, and immediate termination ensued. Decline to participate, immediate termination.

Had a couple of my guys come up positive, when the program initially started. The word soon got out; the rehab program was such a pain in the azz, that it wasn’t worth it to be a recreational user. The few hard core user types almost always dropped the ball, and got themselves terminated.

Salaried-exempt? Whatever mercy your immediate supervisor opted to implement. Or (usually) not. Especially in this age of the “over 40″ cull.

Maybe he should have stayed a worker bee.

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 13:12:06

So, my father-in-law was wearing a shirt that said “January 20, 2013, end of an error”.

So, I ask him, in the last 3.5 years that Obama has been president, what specifically has he done that makes him such a horrid president.

He starts to stay stuff like his socialist policies… No, I interrupt. Not generalities. What specifically?

Oh, he’s going to approve a binding , irrevocable UN treaty banning all private gun ownership. No, no, I say. Not what you think he wants to do. What has he done, specifically?

Because, I think he’s a suck president for the fact that he hasn’t done ANYTHING.

Okay, okay… he got the lobbyists of the doctors, hospitals, drug companies, and insurance companies together and they came up with a way to increase all their profits by putting more of the health care burden on states, other businesses and individuals…. but in no way us Obamacare a government takeover of healthcare. The biggest complaint about it is that it is a mandate that you have to buy a product from a private company….

Oh no, he replies. Obamacare is pure socialism with government dictating what has to be covered.

So I say, you know that the definition of socialism is government ownership of the capital and tools of industry and that in no way does Obamacare transfer the ownership of private capital to the government.

Oh, that’s not what socialism is. Socialism is government dictating to private business how and what they have to do, like OSHA and EPA and the government telling Boeing that it can’t move jobs from a pro-union state to an anti-union state…

Okay, if we can’t agree on definitions, there isn’t much point in a conversation. However, if the worst thing he has done is attempt to protect the environment, workers rights, and prevent wage deflation… well, then I can see why you hate him so much.

Go Republicans. The party that stands up for a company’s rights to pollute, have dangerous working conditions, and crush the wages of the American worker in the name of higher corporate profits so that the uber rich can grow ever uber richer!

Comment by Lip
2012-08-09 18:55:55

Darrell,

Please, you need to watch something other than MSNBC and CNN.

Republicans are evil, Democrats are loving and kind.

Come on, there is barely any difference between the two. They both want to spend our childrens money while simulataneously lining their pockets with our cash.

UGH

 
 
Comment by Montana
2012-08-09 13:30:42

I overheard a conversation in the post office yesterday: Construction is coming back around here, but just for apartments and condos, but I think he must meant multi-family. Who would build condos now…Anyway, like it wasn’t all that great.

It does seem like a lot of guys are working again. What does it matter whether multi-family or houses? Or is this not so good for house contractors?

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-09 14:00:56

When I used to work it the trades, houses paid more and were relatively easier to work on compared to multi-families.

 
2012-08-09 14:06:03

Montana,

Crews are hungry. It’s not as if there is any demand as housing demand is at 15 year lows. This is just more added inventory to the already sky high inventory.

 
 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-09 13:42:28

My dad presents me this riddle:

2 bags. One has 30 blue marbles and the other 30 red. You reach into the bag of blue marbles and select 10 and put them into the bag containing red. You mix completely, then randomly reach into the bag containing 40 marbles (30 red and 10 blue) and select 10 at random. You put those 10 marbles into the bag that has 10 blue marbles.

Which is more likely to be more corrupted with foreign marbles?

The answer, of course, is that they MUST always be equally corrupt. If there are x blue marbles in the red bag, then those x blue marbles are taking up the space of x red marbles, that now must be in the blue bag.

Bringing to economic, the marbles represent fiat money and debt, which must always exist in equal and offsetting amounts since they are flip sides of the same loan. Fiat money is loaned into existence and results in the creation of an exact amount of offsetting debt.

The red bag… the unwashed masses that are going ever further into debt, create the marbles, spend the blue (fiat money), and keep the red (debt).

The blue bag just accumulates the blue marbles. Yeah, the rich get richer… Wonderful thing, and the reason that capitalism exists.

Somehow, we manage to cheer the mass accumulation on money into a few hands, while at the same time, decrying the creation of mass amounts of new debt… even though the accumulation of money would not be possible if it were not being borrowed into existence.

The fear of the “fiscal cliff” is simple. With the private sector clearly tapped out and unable to keep borrowing more fiat currency into existence, if the government stops creating $1.3T new fiat money (and offsetting debt), then how can we possibly fund our $1T in corporate profits (80% of which ends up in the hands of the richest 10%) and our $600B annual international trade deficit?

Somehow, we cheer for the efficiencies of global trade, higher corporate profits and the accumulation of more money into fewer hands, and at the same time decry the creation of debt that creates new fiat money that makes it possible….

Comment by WT Economist
2012-08-09 16:14:00

Well said. If the bottom 90 percent stop borrowing, individually or through the government, those at the top are toast.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-09 16:29:52

ISTR a photo of an Occupy Wall Street sign that said “Our Debt Is Their Wealth.”

Comment by Donald Trump.
2012-08-09 17:21:37

They could just say no, but they won’t.

They could do a bit of homework, but they won’t.

And so there they are.

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Comment by Pete
2012-08-09 14:20:11

“Home prices remain low, largely due to continued short sales and foreclosures. Rents remain high, largely due to increased demand from residents who lost their homes to foreclosure.”

Interactive: Sacramento’s big jump in investor-owned homes

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/08/07/4703161/interactive-sacramentos-big-jump.html

In less then five years, the number of Sacramento County single-family homes and duplexes owned by investors not living in them — or even in the same neighborhood — has jumped by 20,000, or 25 percent, according to a Bee review of county property tax records.

Investors today own about one in four single-family homes and duplexes in Sacramento County.

Competition for homes, particularly in distressed areas, is fierce.

Home prices remain low, largely due to continued short sales and foreclosures. Rents remain high, largely due to increased demand from residents who lost their homes to foreclosure.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-08-09 15:23:19

Isn’t is something to read these jacka$$ characterize current housing prices as “low” when in fact they’re still at the grossly inflated levels of 2004????

And imagine their dumbfounded looks as prices continue to roll back to early 1990’s levels.

Comment by Pete
2012-08-09 16:52:42

Well, this is Sacramento. Like Phoenix and Vegas, prices are down over 60% from the peak and have been hovering around 1998 prices for over a year. Could come down more, as our employment picture sucks. But we were back at 2004 prices by Dec. of 2007. Our price graph looks like Mt. Shasta.

 
 
 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-08-09 15:18:52

Here’s one for you Rental Pimp

Number of Homes Facing Foreclosure Rose in July

“That didn’t keep California from posting the nation’s highest foreclosure rate last month. One in every 325 households reported a foreclosure-related notice in July, more than twice the national average.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48563823

Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-08-09 16:46:02

Rigged game.

“The party line from banks is they are wanting to avoid taking these homes as much as possible now,”

Posted: 12:01 a.m. Thursday, Aug. 9, 2012

Florida home repossessions and new foreclosures increase in July

By Kimberly Miller

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

WEST PALM BEACH —
Lenders repossessed more than 6,700 Florida homes in July, an increase of 38 percent from last year and a trend contrary to national reports of fewer bank takeovers and a greater willingness to work with borrowers.

A report from the Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac found banks repossessed 21 percent fewer homes last month than during the same time in 2011, and one percent fewer than in June. July marked the 21st straight month of declines in bank repossessions nationwide.

The increase in Florida surprised analysts, said RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist.

“The party line from banks is they are wanting to avoid taking these homes as much as possible now,” Blomquist said. “It’s just increasingly less appealing for them to repossess a property and it’s bad PR.”

Palm Beach County was a standout in Florida because it had a 28 percent decrease in bank repossessions in July compared to last year. A bank repossession is the final stage in the foreclosure process.

But not everyone here is winning a loan modification. Two weeks ago, Royal Palm Beach residents Joanne and Thomas Soroko lost their home in a final foreclosure judgment in favor of the bank.

The Sorokos had a balloon mortgage, which was refinanced into a 20-year mortgage for more than they could afford. As soon as they realized the payments were too much, they tried to negotiate a loan modification, they said. That was in 2009.

“We started writing and calling and trying to modify the payments. We’d get letters back that had nothing to do with what I had written,” Thomas Soroko said. “We begged them for three years. They wouldn’t do it.”

The Sorokos’ home is scheduled to be sold at auction Dec. 26.

Comment by Housing Is A Loss
2012-08-09 18:43:24

Yo My Bro Jeth-Row.

Want to know the best thing about the fact that you bought a house?

You paid 1998 prices.

SCHWEEEEET! and well executed my Bro Jeth-Row

Peace

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2012-08-09 16:44:37

Beware the ides of August.

P.S. Five years ago, at the onset of the so-called Credit Crunch, I commented to a close personal adviser who knows far more about finance than I claim to know that I thought a banking panic had begun. He didn’t see it that way just yet.

And I believe it was about that time when Bernanke assured the markets that “subprime will be contained to $200 bn.” How did that prediction pan out?

Happy crisis anniversary

It’s been five years since market began its moves toward an eventual meltdown. (Photo: Reuters)

 
Comment by Little Al
2012-08-09 17:32:33

If investors yanked 5.7 billion dollars last week out of their 401k’s, why is the stock market still flying. The only people left in the game are the pros. Now how can I use that info to my benefit?

Comment by Combotechie
2012-08-09 18:23:26

“The only people left in the game are the pros.”

The pros have no choice: The game is all they’ve got.

Comment by Muggy
2012-08-09 18:26:53

Dude! Write a book, please.

The Tao of Combo

 
 
 
Comment by Muggy
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-09 19:06:01

OMG Muggy, Perot was saying these thing in 1992 . Boy ,how would
things been different had this man got to be President . I also think about how Clinton signed off on getting rid of Glass-Steagall
just because he wanted to get next to Wall Street . Just a few things can change the whole course of history .

 
 
Comment by rms
2012-08-09 20:52:40

Maturing U.S. CMBS Loans Face Challenging Near-Term Future
http://www.costar.com/News/Article/Maturing-US-CMBS-Loans-Face-Challenging-Near-Term-Future/140556

“The next 12 months will be trying for U.S. CMBS with $24 billion in loans set to mature, according to Fitch Ratings.

Of the nearly 1,900 fixed-rate conduit CMBS loans due to mature, 41% (59% by balance) would be unable to refinance under Fitch’s defined stressed refinance parameters.

Under Fitch Ratings’ fixed-rate CMBS surveillance methodology, a loan with a debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) less than 1.25x would be considered unable to refinance and would default at maturity. This DSCR calculation assumes a refinance interest rate of 8% and a 30-year amortization schedule.”

 
Comment by rms
2012-08-09 21:04:26

From the front lines…

Just returned from a family vacation in Newport, OR. The place was jam-packed with holiday tourists and their noisy kids, likely their last chance before k12 returns to school. Every decent hotel was booked solid over the weekend, and near full during the weekdays. All the local attractions and restaurants had waiting lines; it was the busiest we’d ever seen, and we’ve been going there for years since we have kids too. No sign of a recession…at least while the weather is nice.

 
Comment by Get Stucco
2012-08-09 21:52:15

If it floats, flies or flucks, it’s better to rent than to own it.

Personal Finance
Wealth: Why A Yacht Is a Good Investment

Some say it’s a money pit, but others say owning a yacht is worth every penny. Dow Jones Wealth Adviser’s Veronica Dagher takes a sail on a Swan 48 to find out the answer.

Vote for WSJ’s House of the Week
8/3/2012 2:43:43 PM3:31

Comment by rms
2012-08-09 22:16:32

“Comment by Get Stucco”

Back to Bill Bixby again?

Comment by Get Stucco
2012-08-09 23:55:28

“Was three credits shy of graduating from college at the University of California-Berkeley.”

Not me
. I finished my degree and am a lifetime alumni club member.

Besides, Bixby died in 1993, long before the bubble inflated and blew up.

 
 
Comment by rms
2012-08-09 22:59:58

“If it floats, flies or flucks, it’s better to rent than to own it.”

Does Paul Allen really give a chit about selling the Octopus?
http://sharequotes.us/paul-allens-octopus-yacht.html

 
 
Comment by Get Stucco
2012-08-09 22:06:31

Should I be proud or mortified that our local school district’s spend now / pay much later financing scheme caught the attention of a writer for the Financial Times of London?

As I explained to my wife last night, since we are renters, we can move out of the district after our kids finish school. The long term ability of PUSD to repay this debt is hence not our concern.

August 9, 2012 8:35 pm
School bonds could trigger fiscal shock
By Gillian Tett

A decade ago, San Diego county in California was at the cutting edge of some dangerous financial games.

As the housing boom got under way, bankers and mortgage brokers became adept at flogging subprime loans to households across the area using “innovative” structures. That episode, of course, ended in tears, not just in San Diego but elsewhere in America.

Now, some new financial games have come to light involving a dangerous cocktail of innovation and debt. This time, it is not private households involved but public sector bodies – specifically, schools.

The issue at stake revolves around some exotic bonds issued by San Diego educational authorities in recent years. Once upon a time (think six long decades ago), US school authorities used to finance themselves primarily by using taxes. Then they started to issue a swelling volume of bonds to supplement those taxes.

But as the fiscal situation in California has deteriorated, voters have become so upset they have imposed various fiscal straitjackets on educational boards. Worse, property tax revenues, which have been used to fund schools, have declined as the housing market has crashed.

That has left schools in a bind. So, local financial advisers have offered some “innovative” solutions. Last year, Poway Unified, one San Diego educational district, issued some $105m worth of “capital appreciation” bonds to finance previously planned investment projects.

These are similar to zero-coupon bonds, meaning the district does not need to start repaying interest or capital until 2033.

As a result, Poway’s local authority has been able to promise to keep local taxes unchanged while completing previously promised investments (building projects, computers and so on).

But, there is a big catch: to compensate for this payment deferral, these bonds are paying double-digit interest rates and cannot be redeemed early. When the bond is repaid in 2051, the total bill will be more than 10 times the initial loan.

The Poway local authorities insist this still makes sense. After all, they argue, their children cannot wait for new schools until tax revenues grow again. But the danger is clear. Though these bonds shield taxpayers (and politicians) from expenditure today, they create a headache later. At best, this is a case of kicking the can down the road; at worst, a case of the government dancing with loan sharks.

Comment by rms
2012-08-09 22:36:51

“But, there is a big catch: to compensate for this payment deferral, these bonds are paying double-digit interest rates and cannot be redeemed early. When the bond is repaid in 2051, the total bill will be more than 10 times the initial loan.”

They’re probably counting on Apophis in 2036 to “poof dat debt!”

 
Comment by SDGreg
2012-08-10 00:59:04

I read the story in VOSD. It’s just mind bogglingly stupid and short-sighted what they’ve done. It’s a future death sentence for the area so they can save a little on taxes today. That school district and that area will start to implode about 2025 or 2030, somewhat ahead of or with the arrival of the two decades of crippling payments that begin about 2030. As posters to that story noted, it’d be about that time that they would probably need yet more funds to repair what they’re repairing now.

It’s one more land mine out there for anyone buying housing now and one that would not be at all obvious except for there being a story on the issue now. It might not be an issue for another decade, but if someone were buying there and planning on holding the property a couple of decades or longer, it could get really ugly.

 
 
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