Weekend Topic Suggestions
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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A Golden State train wreck by George Will
In 2008, Californians passed an initiative authorizing $9.95 billion in bonds to build what they were told would be a $33 billion high-speed rail system.
and soon the price was re-estimated at about $100 billion. Not to worry, said Gov. Jerry Brown — the real price will be only $68.5 billion. Why? Partly because it will be less than bullet-like, not requiring extra-expensive roadbed.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-will-a-golden-state-train-wreck/2012/08/08/c469d642-e0ae-11e1-8fc5-a7dcf1fc161d_story.html
It’s a shame what’s happening in CA. How soon before we all have to bail them out as they’re “too big to fail”.
Like most Californians I voted for the rail project and enthusiastically $upport it. Far better this than your idiot wars, death machines, and foreign adventures. Compared to China and the EU, our American transportation system is pathetic. This HSR project is a good start toward bringing our country into the 21st century, connecting the state, and providing all those “jobs” people keep harping about.
And before you start in, keep in mind that we in this state have subsidized the east coast’s commuter system for a hundred plus years, so spare us the Clownifornia nonsense. They all laughed at Jerry Brown when after cleaning up the mess Ronnie Reagan had made of our budget,he suggested we use the billion dollar State budget surplus he’d amassed to launch a communications satellite. “Governor Moonbeam”, they called him and siphoned the money off to the Reagan presidential campaign. As I recall, a couple of years later France ran with his idea and reaped the global windfall with ComSat, while Ronnie and Mommy took their special brand of crony capitalism to DC and inflicted it on the rest of the country.
“…we in this state have subsidized the east coast’s commuter system for a hundred plus years..”
Don’t forget California, the nation’s largest state by population, also helped bail out Wall Street, Detroit and God only knows what else in the aftermath of the Fall 2008 Financial Meltdown. Why not share the wealth out this way for a change?
“Like most Californians I voted for the rail project and enthusiastically $upport it.”
I enthusiastically support TRUE high speed rail throughout the whole country, I would imaging that the Obama stimulus cash could have paid for most of the project. Too bad it was used to pay back political favors and grease the unions.
How is anyone supposed to trust progressives who continue to promise one thing but deliver something completely different? Can somebody…anybody just allocate cash for these projects, have a fair contract/bidding process and just get it built? Doubt it…Social justice dictates will not allow that to happen, only the democrat party donors, left leaning special interest groups and unions get the cash. In fact, the left has become so pathetically partisan I would bet you that not one inch of track would be laid in a red county.
On the other hand, if the Romneyites come into power, high speed rail will not even be discussed. So, you can kiss that idea goodby young lady.
I rather imagine I’m older than you are, Nick, so how about you spare me the pedantry? For what it’s worth, back in the late seventies the main complaint lobbyists in Sacramento had against then-governor Jerry Brown was that “he wouldn’t stay bought”. My more recent experiences with the man would suggest he’s still irascible, breeches no bs, and remains beholden to no one.
So I take that as encouraging….
FYI, Central CA, which is where the rail line will be constructed to connect north and south, is as red as they come.
From Bloomibergi:
The Most Depressing Campaign Ever
Stephen L. Carter [excerpts]
—————
“… Nobody is promising much of anything, other than to avoid the overweening awfulness of the other guy.
…Even if kept, these promises are tiny; specific, to be sure, possibly even attainable — who knows? — but encouraging a smallness of vision.
…The subtext of the current campaign is that we have reached our limits, that we cannot do all that we used to do — in short, that the American century is creaking toward its end. … Agree or disagree, this implication is difficult to miss. And it’s depressing; deeply, profoundly depressing.
….Today, only 14 percent of us still believe in that future, and those seeking our votes seem too busy tossing mud at each other to care. … What we need at this moment is a candidate willing to call off the dogs and call us once more to greatness, by doing the serious if difficult work of laying out a path toward the brighter day for which an unhappy nation yearns. ”
————-
Is America in decline? I would say yes, and we know it. The reasons are simple: not enough jobs for the people who need jobs, and expenses for needs which are so high that a large number of people need jobs.
I notice that the author wimps out at the end and goes vague: “doing the serious and difficult work of laying out a path.” Like WHAT, Stephen? Got any suggestions for us? How about ending tax breaks for offshorers? Funding some basic research for the next technology? How about making some attempt to separate employee health care from employers to mutually liberate both?
Is America in decline?
For many, the concept of a stable, middle class lifestyle, is something they will lose or never attain at all. Median incomes will continue to decline while underreported inflation will increase as global wage arbitrage continues.
some attempt to separate employee health care from employers
The prospect of a nationalized single payer health care system was the primary reason we voted for Obama in 2008. The law that was passed was not what we voted for, and why we support Dennis Kucinich.
“For many, the concept of a stable, middle class lifestyle, is something they will lose or never attain at all. Median incomes will continue to decline while underreported inflation will increase as global wage arbitrage continues.”
Is America in decline? No, our political system crashed, and if we don’t fix it, perhaps our nation will collapse. This is worth reposting:
Ross Perot 1992
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rkgx1C_S6ls
Now I remember why I voted for Perot. Thanks!
For many, the concept of a stable, middle class lifestyle, is something they will lose or never attain at all.
Nation’s Lower Class At Least Grateful It Not Part Of Nation’s Middle Class
CHAPEL HILL, NC—A survey released Wednesday by researchers at the University of North Carolina found that despite the many challenges they face, the nation’s lowest-income individuals are nonetheless thankful they don’t have to endure the unique hardships of the nation’s long-suffering middle class.
According to the report, the 46 million Americans who fall below the federal poverty line, though struggling mightily, are at least glad they don’t have to live up to some rapidly vanishing American dream of advancing in their career, making more money, and improving their lifestyle, the way their middle-income counterparts do.
“The unrealistic expectations and false hope they experience must be unbearable,” Camden, NJ hotel clerk Allison Jacobsen told researchers, noting that while her $22,000 annual salary barely covers her rent and groceries each month, at least she doesn’t operate under the flawed assumption that her situation will ever improve. “A life spent constantly stressing out over a dead-end job or struggling to pay off a fixed 30-year mortgage on a continuously depreciating three-bedroom townhouse? It’s horrific.”
http://www.theonion.com/articles/nations-lower-class-at-least-grateful-it-not-part,28999/
Prosecuting GS would be a good start.
call us once more to greatness, by doing the serious if difficult work of laying out a path toward the brighter day
Calling us? Us??? “Me” is capitailism. “us” is soshalism,
How about a thread where we post the names of three to five of our favorite informative websites?
Can “The Onion” count as one?
(This is supposed to be funny but for some reason it isn’t.)
Wikipedia
Bloomberg
UK Guardian
Asia Times (atimes DOT com)
Counterpunch DOT org
haaretz.com
Bloomy
HBB
ritholtz (big picture)
democracynow.org
Fox News
Breitbart dot com
GlennBeck dot com
Ow My Balls! dot tv
WhiteRight Daily news
The Drudge Report is informative in that covers a broad range of right wing talking points. Since we don’t have cable TeeVee (Fox News) or spend three hours a day driving listening to Rush Limbaugh, it is a good source to learn what the current criticisms of the O administration and the dems in congress are.
Rush often devotes segments of his show to stories linked from Drudge, and if you ever see his “ditto cam” it often has the Drudge Report up on one of the laptops in the studio.
Since breaking the Monica Lewinsky story, Drudge has not really scooped anything big. Andrew Breitbart reported some stories that the lib media wouldn’t touch, but Drudge mostly reposts links that report the following:
Anything critical of Obama
Iran threatening Israel
Black on white crime stories
Any failure/problem of “green energy” companies
Any record low temperature or unseasonal snowfall
Unlike many myopic libs (or libtards, to some) who exist within the bubble of HuffPost, NY Times, NPR, et cetera, we actually read the Drudge Report every single day, and always listen to Rush if out driving when he’s on.
“Don’t criticize what you can’t understand” - Bob Dylan
HBB for water cooler commentary on current events
Drudge for subtext and tabloid Americana
The comments sections of Glenn Greenwald’s and Greg Palast’s posts anywhere
Wikipedia
Wherever the links take me….
HBB
Godlikeproductions
That’s all I need.
ft.com
wsj.com
google.com
That’s all.
HBB
Itulip.com
Charles Hugh Smith
Patrick.net
How’s Patrick? I haven’t been there in years. I actually found Ben through Patrick. It was so narrowly focused on Sushi and SF, I stopped visiting. Surfer-x may be one of the greatest internet flamers of all time. Lol…
Naked Capitalism
While I’ve been in Boston I made a run up to the island named after my great^n grandmother, Hannah Dustin. Here’s a bit of video.
How about a topic on new supply coming on the market, for sale or for rent? Here is some information about the DC area:
A renter’s respite: In Washington area, thousands of new units to open soon
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-renters-respite-in-washington-area-thousands-of-new-units-to-open-soon/2012/08/08/7d643afa-da9e-11e1-b829-cab78633af7c_story.html
And a few teases from the article:
Thousands of new rental units under construction are scheduled to open in the coming months, the first such wave of new building in the area since the financial crisis hit in 2008.
The coming surge — a whopping 6,000 new units by the end of this year — will give prospective renters a slew of new options and could even halt the upward march of monthly rental payments, according to developers, analysts and real estate professionals.
“There’s going to be a paradigm shift,” said Rick Gersten, chief executive of Urban Igloo, a company that helps connect renters with local landlords. “People are going to have more choices. It’s going to be more difficult to retain tenants.”
During the economic downturn, developers drastically scaled back production of multi- family projects. But construction has come roaring back, with developers last year alone breaking ground on nearly 15,000 apartment units from Landover to Northeast Washington to Manassas — the most in nearly two decades, said Greg Leisch, chief executive of the Alexandria-based research firm Delta Associates.
Much of the building is taking place in the District, including the hot H Street NE corridor and the Mount Vernon Triangle area. But units are also springing up in the close-in suburbs of Fairfax in Northern Virginia and Bethesda and Silver Spring in Maryland….
The projected number of new units would be more than double the number that went on the market in the Washington area during each of the past two years. And by national standards, the coming boom is exceptional — by comparison, only about 2,500 new units are expected to go on the market in New York City this year.
“We don’t even have demand in an entire year for 6,000” new apartments, Leisch said. “That’s going to disrupt the equilibrium in the market.”
The result, Leisch said, probably will be a slight decrease in average rents by the end of the year, with the potential for additional decreases in 2013. In addition, some landlords could be forced to offer concessions to entice new tenants, such as a free month’s rent….
That’s good for renters, but I’m not optimistic. There may a slight decrease, but by how much? My experience is that new construction comes with new high rents to pay for the modern goodies like granite and the dog showers, which encourages other complexes to raise their rents.
Dog showers? Are you kidding? Whatever happened to just hosing the dog off after soaping it down?
Where is this “hose” of which you speak in an apartment in a 12 story building?
The vast majority are “Class A” units aimed at young professionals eager to live in walkable communities near shopping and public transportation, developers say. Many boast a profusion of modern amenities, such as open floor plans and granite countertops — even waist-high mini-showers for bathing the well-groomed dog.
Young professionals. Always the damn young professionals. Because, of course, they spend the most money.
“There’s going to be a paradigm shift,”
Yep….. He’s right but he has dramatically understated it.
Here’s one caveat about the DC metro area: If/When the economy picks back up, and government stimulus spending drops, other cities will be attracting migrants and jobs and DC will lose.
Government has injected a tremendous amount of stimulus into the system the past few years. Naturally, due to physical constraints, a lot of that is going to be spent close to home, in and around DC.
Does Zillow falsify home value estimates on seller request? Take the case of this beach-front home for sale in La Jolla; the low end of the Zillow range is nearly twice the high end of the Eppraisal range. Certainly both ranges can’t be reasonable?
Home Value Estimates
Low Estimate High
Zillow.com $12,035,962 $25,074,920 $32,095,898
Eppraisal.com $4,835,394 $5,688,699 $6,542,004
Perhaps the issue gets down to the value of improvements: Can adding structures increase the value of a property by a factor of five? If so, why doesn’t everyone do it?
LA JOLLA COMPOUND FOR SALE FOR $27.3 MILLION
2.58-acre estate with views of cove owned by TV writer
Written by Lily Leung
12:01 a.m., Aug. 10, 2012
Updated 5:11 p.m. , Aug. 9, 2012
A TV writer and producer who wrote for the series “Barney Miller” and created the sitcom “Night Court” has listed with his wife their four-building compound in La Jolla for $27.3 million.
Reinhold Weege and his wife, Shelley, raised their now-grown daughters at the oceanfront property that sits on a blufftop with views of La Jolla Cove. They’re looking to move to the Los Angeles area, said co-listing agent Edward Mracek, of Willis Allen Real Estate. The other agent is Marty Vusich.
The nearly 2.58-acre site on which the Weege estate sits was once occupied by the house of Frederic de Hoffmann, who led the Salk Institute from 1970 to 1988, first as chancellor and then president. De Hoffmann’s other credits include working on the Manhattan Project and serving as the first president of General Atomics.
After de Hoffmann died in 1989 at the age of 65, his widow donated the home to the Salk Institute. The institute sold it in 1995 to the Weeges for nearly $4.4 million, according to property records. The proceeds went to support scientific research.
The Weeges tore down the de Hoffmann home and built anew, completing construction of the compound in 2001.
The main home is more than 10,000 square feet and has four bedrooms and 5.5 baths. The guest quarters, which has two beds and two baths, is an additional 1,950 square feet and is described as “like a Four Seasons suite,” the listing says.
…
I once saw a house on 2.5 acres, 12,000+ square feet, built in 2009, imported stone from way more interesting places that I’ve ever been, pool house, etc., in Atherton, CA, with a “Zestimate” of $1 million.
In my experience websites that estimate value do much better if there are plenty of comparable sales.
That said, when two different value estimation web sites produce ranges which don’t even overlap, you have to suspect that one of them is either inept or lying. They can’t both be right.
Or they are both looking at small, but not identical sampling of homes.
Perhaps one doesn’t exclude non-oceanfront property….perhaps one places more weight on newer construction, perhaps one only includes sales within the last 6 months, while the other goes back a year, etc.
All those differences would be washed out with a larger sample size, but with small sample sizes, and likely different samples, the numbers could be WAY off.
“Or they are both looking at small, but not identical sampling of homes.”
That would suggest they are both using conceptually flawed appraisal methodologies.
I haven’t paid close attention to this story, which my wife asked me about a couple of days ago, but now I see our local school district’s financing scheme has made news around the globe, even inspiring this article in the Financial Times of London.
Can anyone who understands explain what is so bad about this financial arrangement? Or has the media overblown the situation?
School Bonds Could Trigger Fiscal Shock
Published: Thursday, 9 Aug 2012 | 8:11 PM ET
By: Gillian Tet
A decade ago, San Diego county in California was at the cutting edge of some dangerous financial games.
As the housing boom got under way, bankers and mortgage brokers became adept at flogging subprime loans to households across the area using “innovative” structures. That episode, of course, ended in tears, not just in San Diego but elsewhere in America.
Now, some new financial games have come to light involving a dangerous cocktail of innovation and debt. This time, it is not private households involved but public sector bodies – specifically, schools.
The issue at stake revolves around some exotic bonds issued by San Diego educational authorities in recent years. Once upon a time (think six long decades ago), US school authorities used to finance themselves primarily by using taxes. Then they started to issue a swelling volume of bonds to supplement those taxes.
But as the fiscal situation in California has deteriorated, voters have become so upset they have imposed various fiscal straitjackets on educational boards. Worse, property tax revenues, which have been used to fund schools, have declined as the housing market has crashed.
That has left schools in a bind. So, local financial advisers have offered some “innovative” solutions. Last year, Poway Unified, one San Diego educational district, issued some $105m worth of “capital appreciation” bonds to finance previously planned investment projects.
These are similar to zero-coupon bonds, meaning the district does not need to start repaying interest or capital until 2033.
As a result, Poway’s local authority has been able to promise to keep local taxes unchanged while completing previously promised investments (building projects, computers and so on).
But, there is a big catch: to compensate for this payment deferral, these bonds are paying double-digit interest rates and cannot be redeemed early. When the bond is repaid in 2051, the total bill will be more than 10 times the initial loan.
…
Where will the people who made the deal be in 2033? Dead?
What will the school district use to pay off the loan - sell land, buildings?
I don’t know, but it seems like there has never been a better time to rent in PUSD…
Trickle down mismanagement has finally reached the local level. When is some enterprising law firm going to institute a class action suit on behalf of all the unborn baby fetuses?
“So, local financial advisers have offered some “innovative” solutions.”
Those bonds aren’t any more innovative than time delayed explosives.
The problem as I see it is mainly with the interest rate (double digits).
There is no problem inherently with long-term debt, especially if the interest rate is fixed, and not much higher than the rate of inflation.
However, with property taxes being a source of funding, and with prop 13 limiting the growth in taxes for any particular home no more than 2% per year (regardless of the increase in home values), it seems like committing to a long-term, 10% interest rate loan is a ticking time-bomb–even in a case where there is significant inflation.
“The problem as I see it is mainly with the interest rate (double digits).”
Given that Treasury yields are currently at historic lows, those interest rates certainly do seem like a red flag for future problems…
“…these bonds are paying double-digit interest rates…”
That means 10%+, right?
Meanwhile, across the pond, Eurozone bond investors freak out to the max if PIIGS sovereign bond yields climb much past 7%.
I guess it is different in Poway, California?
Yup…I’m assuming that no one would raise a stink if the only digits they were talking about were on the other side of the decimal…
Hey Pimp….. Of course 30 years of crushing installments on massive debt for a rapidly depreciating asset is acceptable to you.
You’re profiting from such disastrous decisions.
“There’s going to be a paradigm shift,”
He’s right but he has dramatically understated it.
Would now be a good time to buy stocks?
Or is The Street too jittery to make it safe to get back in the water just yet?
China jitters unnerve Street
U.S. stocks trade broadly lower on heels of hot streak, as China exports data prove worrisome.
No worries, Manchester United just had its IPO.
I wonder how many fans around the world will buy a few shares so they can “feel” that they own the team?
Just curious what all our home gardeners are harvesting this weekend?
Picked a few bushels of Gala apples ahead of the birds this morning;they’ve pretty much finished off my plums, Asian pears, and nectarines despite my spotty marksmanship. Vegetable garden is giving me kale, strawberries, carrots, cukes, the inevitable zuchinni, soy beans, potatoes, and a few yellow plum tomatoes. Corn is anemic despite diligent hand watering. Two rescued pheasant chicks are plumping up on hen scratch in the aviary but I suspect they’re male, so the egg quotient isn’t looking so hot this season….
Basil. For my home-made spaghetti sauce.
Tomatoes, tomatoes and MORE tomatoes.
Oregano, thyme and basil.
Waiting for all the little green peppers to grow up and turn red.
The green beans have been ravaged, first by bunnies and now by Japanese beetles.
BTW, Ahansen, in response to your question about my medical school yesterday: University of Michigan, M.D. ‘81. I was an in-state student, which meant low tuition back then. My first year I paid $1600 per semester. Grateful for the low cost of a first-rate education at a public university. Your sister must have attended private schools to be that far in debt that long ago?
Thanks, Midster, I’m envious of your tomaters as well as your more-than-reasonable tuition!
Sis spent three years at private med school in NY then finished her MD at UCLA, so there was a cross-country move in there, plus the cost of doing her internship and residencies as a single mom. (She went back to Columbia U in her late 20’s with two young kids, finished her BS, then was accepted to medical school at age 29.)
Stepson (and father, uncle, and ex-husband for that matter) took the rational route and enlisted with the Navy in exchange for their MDs.
Dad was freezing his okra today when my wife called him. Seems not much else is surviving the Mississippi Valley heat…
Not only could nobody see the financial crisis coming, but nobody who helped cause it is legally culpable. Meanwhile, Megabank, Inc is free to rob, rape and pillage Main Street American Citizens some more.
Look, Ma, it really is different this time!
Goldman Sachs dodges criminal prosecution
Mark Wilson/Getty Images
Lloyd Blankfein, chairman and CEO of the Goldman Sachs Group. The Justice Department drops probe into Goldman mortgage deal. Four years after the financial crisis, there’s still no criminal conviction on Wall Street.
by Heidi N. Moore
Marketplace for Friday, August 10, 2012
Kai Ryssdal: OK, so the Justice Department didn’t actually say the financial crisis was nobody’s fault. But that’s what you get if you read between the lines of an announcement the feds made last night.
The government’s not going to prosecute Goldman Sachs in the last big case left over from the crisis — a subprime mortgage deal in which the investment bank didn’t tell investors the whole truth. Goldman did pay a $550 million fine to settle civil charges over the deal, but the DOJ says it can’t prove criminal intent.
Which leaves consumers four years on wondering who — if anyone — gets the blame. Our New York bureau chief Heidi Moore starts us off.
Heidi Moore: If the financial crisis were being hashed out on TV, a lot of people would be in jail right now.
Frank Partnoy wishes it could be that easy. He’s a University of San Diego law professor who used to sell complex financial products on Wall Street.
Some recent cases prove that. The Justice Department just dropped its potentially landmark investigation against Goldman Sachs. Last month, a Citigroup manager was acquitted of fraud fraud involving mortgage securities. But the jury encouraged the government to keep hunting for financial crimes.
…
Here’s a topic: What exactly is “Financial Innovation.” Volcker’s attempt to lump the ATM under the umbrella of financial innovation got me thinking (the ATM is of course, a technological innovation, not a financial one).
As I see it, “Financial Innovation” consists of two things:
1) Creating “virtual products” - stocks, bonds, derivatives, various flavors of insurance policies, etc - and having people ascribe value to them. Then creating a system - a market - by which these virtual products can be bought and sold.
2) Figuring out ways to entice people to take on more debt and pay more interest.
2a) Figuring out ways to separate the lender and loan originators from repayment risk.
Anything else?
A modern American financial innovation came from Lee Iacocca, and his “56 for 56″ deal. Back in 1956, with a 20% down payment, and a 56 dollar monthly payment for three years, he’d sell you a car. It was a huge hit. A prime example of enticing the individual to take on debt. It was a huge hit because it was a debt level the individual could and would service.
School Bonds Could Trigger Fiscal Shock
Published: Thursday, 9 Aug 2012 | 8:11 PM ET
By: Gillian Tet
A decade ago, San Diego county in California was at the cutting edge of some dangerous financial games.
As the housing boom got under way, bankers and mortgage brokers became adept at flogging subprime loans to households across the area using “innovative” structures. That episode, of course, ended in tears, not just in San Diego but elsewhere in America.
Now, some new financial games have come to light involving a dangerous cocktail of innovation and debt. This time, it is not private households involved but public sector bodies – specifically, schools.
…
2b) Figuring out ways to part greater fools from their money.
So the rumor is that Mitt will tap up Paul Ryan for his running mate tomorrow. I guess two ultra-conservative white guys are better than one, at least if your goal is to rally the Republican base?
Aug 10, 2012
Paul Ryan to be named Romney’s running mate
By Jackie Kucinich, USA TODAY
Updated 5m ago
NORFOLK, Va. — Rep. Paul Ryan will be named Mitt Romney’s running mate on Saturday, ending weeks of speculation about the No. 2 slot on the GOP ticket.
The Associated Press and several TV networks confirmed the news about the Wisconsin lawmaker.
Ryan, 42, is best known as the chairman of the House Budget Committee and author of a dramatic plan to overhaul Medicare, the government-run health insurance program for senior citizens.
Romney is set to reveal his running mate at the U.S.S. Wisconsin, before setting out on a tour of key swing states to highlight his economic plans for the middle class.
In an interview with NBC on Thursday, Romney said he was looking for someone with “a strength of character” and “a vision for the country that adds something to the political discourse about the direction of the country.”
With Ryan as his running mate, Romney appears ready to have a national conversation about federal spending and the growth of entitlements with one of the GOP’s leading budget authorities at his side.
Ryan, a House member since 1999, has proposed to overhaul both Medicare and Medicaid, the programs that have been a hallmark of the nation’s compact to provide health care to senior citizens and the poor. Under his plan, Medicare would be run by private insurers while Medicaid would be turned over to the states.
His goal, he said, was to leave “a debt-free nation” to the next generation. “At stake is America,” he said last year.
Ryan’s budget plan has been widely criticized by President Obama and his fellow Democrats, who contend it would “end Medicare as we know it.” Obama has called Ryan’s plan “thinly veiled social Darwinism.”
…
It’s almost as though the RNC is TRYING to lose this one.
Pandering to the Rovians is not going to cut the mustard with seniors and independents. If they’re not intentionally shooting their toes off, what do you suppose they are thinking?