August 15, 2012

Bits Bucket for August 15, 2012

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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463 Comments »

Comment by Cratering Global Housing
2012-08-15 02:35:23

Decade 2010-2020 will be one of cratering housing prices. Just like the 1990’s prices CRATERED in the northeast. Hell….. even DC fell slightly in the 1990’s.

Vermont cratered in the 1990’s

Vermont
2000 $111,500
1990 $122,000
1980 $83,500
1970 $63,000

Connecticut prices cratered in the 1990’s

2000 $166,900
1990 $227,200
1980 $129,900

And Mass? It cratered in the 1990’s

Massachussetts
2000 $185,700
1990 $208,000
1980 $95,800

Oh and NY? It cratered in the 1990’s

New York
2000 $148,700
1990 $168,100
1980 $90,300

New Hampshire in the 1990’s? CRATERED

New Hampshire
2000 $133,300
1990 $165,300
1980 $95,000

New Jersey CRATERED too

2000 $170,800
1990 $207,400
1980 $119,200

Imagine what the losses will be for someone who bought in 2010. Crushing….. absolutely crushing.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:00:03

Either somebody has to catch the falling knife real estate investments, or else housing market liquidity simply freezes.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:03:02

Silver lining to the 2010-2020 real estate price collapse: In another decade, affordable housing may be available to some of our kids.

Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 07:25:07

In another decade, the physical condition of the housing stock will become a major issue. Deferred maintenance can easily run in the $30K range. That doesn’t include the ooh-shiny magazine renovations.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 07:47:24

A lot of surplus housing was erected in the bubble. Of course many houses will be abandoned and demolished, until a balance is reached. That process will continue to put downward pressure on the rest of the housing stock, even the well maintained.

We built too many houses, too big houses, and too ugly houses.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 07:50:39

We built too many houses, too big houses, and too ugly houses.

Ding-ding-ding! We have a winner!

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-15 08:12:29

When everyone wants out nobody wants in .

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 08:48:48

“In another decade, the physical condition of the housing stock will become a major issue. Deferred maintenance can easily run in the $30K range. That doesn’t include the ooh-shiny magazine renovations.”

Mr Market has no problem finding a suitably low price for defective homes, provided the interveners get out of the way and let the free market work.

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-15 10:21:30

Sounds like it might be a good situation for people who have both a downpayment and $30K of cash to do the fix up.

 
Comment by Housing Is A Massive Loss
2012-08-15 11:11:27

It’s a horrible idea at current inflated asking prices of resale housing.

 
Comment by michael
2012-08-15 12:45:12

They will bulldoze them down before it is all over with.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-15 18:07:34

Bulldozing homes creates JOBS and recycling money for the homeless……

 
 
Comment by scdave
2012-08-15 08:17:44

housing may be available to some of our kids ??

Hopefully….Will health care also be affordable for them ??

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Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 09:31:50

depends on where you live. In some markets, affordable housing is available to our kids right now.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 10:11:33

LOL, how many of “our kids” can afford to buy a decent used car? How many of “our kids” have money left over after providing for their basics every month?

We are still in the economic culture that buying something means accepting long term debt indenturement.

 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-15 16:31:35

depends on where you live. In some markets, affordable housing is available to our kids right now.

Surprised? SF is 2nd least affordable city to buy

The study looked at median home price and the median income of cities around the country and came up with an affordability score. The score indicates the percentage of homes that a family earning the median income in that area can afford to buy. San Francisco’s affordability score was 32%. This wasn’t far behind the least affordable city in the U.S., which was Manhattan. Residents earning the median income in New York City could afford about 29.4% of the homes being sold in that area.

And the future doesn’t look too promising, as home prices in SF rose 18% in the 2nd quarter of this year. Outside of San Francisco, the rest of California is not cheap either. Santa Ana, representing the Orange County area and Los Angeles were also in the top 5 of least affordable cities. Modesto, having been slammed by the housing crisis, however took the fifth spot on the most affordable list.

Where’s the most affordable place to buy a home? That would be Youngstown, Ohio where the affordability score is 93.4%, followed by its neighbor, Dayton, Ohio. Midwest, anyone?

 
Comment by Housing Is A Massive Loss
2012-08-15 17:53:53

California and Manhattan prices have a long way to fall it seems.

Why buy in either location? Buy later after prices crater for 65% less.

 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-15 18:40:23

Why buy in either location?

YOU could live in Youngstown, Ohio. Personally, I enjoy living in one of the most beautiful cities in the world.

Or you could rent in SF. Here’s today’s CL listings for 3 bedroom houses/apts for rent that allow dogs. I only searched those that were 6K and under per month:

Aug 15 - 3 bd. 2 ba. flat, views, bring your pets! ~ JWavro - $3550 / 3br - (inner sunset / UCSF) img

Aug 15 - 4 br/2 1/2 bath whole house in Sunset! - $3490 / 4br - 1800ft² - (sunset / parkside) pic

Aug 15 - 3 Bed 2 bath renovated Townhome- Hurry in!!! - $3640 / 3br - 1300ft² - (ingleside / SFSU / CCSF) pic

Aug 15 - 3 Bed 2.5 Bath Town Home with Private Patio!! Hurry!!! - $3800 / 3br - (ingleside / SFSU / CCSF) pic

Aug 15 - 3-BR 2 BA Home!! With Patio! Hurry!! - $3300 / 3br - 1300ft² - (ingleside / SFSU / CCSF) pic

Aug 15 - Beautiful Bay Bridge Views- Perfect for roommates! - $4060 / 3br - (SOMA / south beach) img

Aug 15 - Ex lg 4-bd, 3.5ba, 2-level rmdld house, amzing views, 2700 sqft, 4-car - $5995 / 4br - (cole valley / ashbury hts) img

Aug 15 - Upper Mkt/Cole Val, New, Luxury lg 3bd, 2.5ba, 2level, 2car, pets nego - $5750 / 3br - (cole valley / ashbury hts) img

Aug 15 - ID#929: 2BR+Den/2BA Condo w/Pkg &Prvt Dk/Gdn - $6000 / 3br - (pacific heights) img

Aug 15 - Paradise in Bayview - $1650 / 3br - (bayview) pic

Aug 15 - 2ba: Sunny Classic-Contemporary 1936 House. Ocean Views *Ready* Coombs - $4980 / 4br - 2600ft² - (west portal / forest hill) pic

 
Comment by California Is Cratering
2012-08-15 18:58:06

Yes renting is less costly than buying at current inflated asking prices.

See? You really can learn to be truthful.

 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-15 19:53:09

Our current rent is $2800 month. That’s cheap around here, unfortunately.

90K down payment asst. (interest free, deferred payment for 40 years) plus 25K cash with 3.5% interest on a 425K house.

We need a new place to live. Do the math.

Yeah, it’s a rock and a hard place, but I’ll still choose SF over Youngstown, Ohio. The surfing is better.

 
Comment by Cratering Global Housing
2012-08-15 19:56:51

You do the math Pimp.

Enjoy your losses.

 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-15 21:33:28

Dude, even if the house depreciates by 90K almost immediately, I wouldn’t care. Did you miss the part about 90K DP assistance (interest-free) deferred payment for 40 years?

The idea that one is a housing pimp because they need a stable place for themselves and their family is ridiculous.

Pimp implies that one does something for profit.

I continually maintain that using shelter - a basic human need - as a means for profit, is patently wrong.

 
Comment by Cratering Global Housing
2012-08-16 03:24:49

The fact that you continually pimp inflated housing prices, is patently wrong.

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 12:25:06

http://www.forecast-chart.com/estate-real-colorado-springs.html

According to this link, prices increased setadil in Colorado Springs through out the 90’s:

“Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates
1990 0.26%
1991 4.26%
1992 6.87%
1993 10.30%
1994 9.27%
1995 7.20%
1996 5.61%
1997 4.71%
1998 4.49%
1999 4.06%
2000 7.25%”

There are always exceptions.

And in Denver:

“1990 2.24%
1991 4.19%
1992 7.69%
1993 8.86%
1994 10.02%
1995 7.61%
1996 5.02%
1997 6.47%
1998 6.74%
1999 12.73%
2000 13.72%”

Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-15 13:41:21

For those of us in new subdivisions in decent locations at the time, 1997-2000 was even better than that suggests. And then it all ended in 2001. Treading water ever since…but at least the bubble kept things from crashing.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 13:57:45

Yup!

Anyway, just trying to point out that prices weren’t “cratering” everywhere in the 90’s, just like now.

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Comment by Housing Is A Massive Loss
2012-08-15 17:58:17

No….. Colorado is no exception. Prices CRATERED in CO in the 1980’s. Now they’re cratering once again.

Colorado

2000 $166,600
1990 $105,700
1980 $126,900

It looks like a very long way down to 2000 prices in Colorado.

Enjoy!

 
 
Comment by Overtaxed
2012-08-15 14:31:27

“Imagine what the losses will be for someone who bought in 2010. Crushing….. absolutely crushing.”

And, in my area, less than (by necessity) than the losses of those who bought in 2006. I bought in 2010 for 1/2 of what the previous owner paid in 2004. Could it go down another 1/2 (which would put the value at 0)? I suppose so, but I think that’s rather unlikely.

I think we’re reached the point in this bust where it’s probably start time to admit that some areas are, in fact, at the bottom and will either stay there or start to mirror inflation. And, other areas (SF, NYC, CANADA, etc) are nowhere near the bottom and will continue to fall for years. But places like FL and Las Vegas (which has areas off 65%+)? IMHO, its unlikely that, in aggregate, these areas have big downside ahead, and, with mathematical certainty, not as big as they’ve already had. :)

 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2012-08-15 16:46:50

I’m posting this late in the day. I’m quite surprised that no one asked Cratering Global Housing to identify the data source used above.

Normally the people on this blog are all over that.

Comment by polly
2012-08-15 18:55:16

What good would that do? When he is in his grove he won’t even define his terms (like whether a low is an absolute low or a low as a percentage of current population or current households).

That being said, I don’t have any reason to doubt these numbers. Someone who was lying wouldn’t claim that Vermont prices were “cratering” when they only went down 8.6% over a decade. The source of the numbers would be good to have, but not important when I’m not paying much attention to anything he says.

Comment by Cratering Global Housing
2012-08-15 19:30:37

Sure you’re paying attention. You always do.

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Comment by Jinglemale
2012-08-15 17:05:02

Cratering Housing Prices from 2010 to 2020? I disagree completely. 1990 was a peak in real estate values. Of course prices dropped thru 1995 and were flat from 95-97 recovering some from 97-00.

Just like values dropped from 2005 to 2010. 2010 is a trough. Going forward, prices are much more likely to go up than down. For example:

I bought the house where I live in November, 2010 (thank you BofA). It cost me about $380,000. I am getting it appraised tomorrow at noon. I bet the appraisal comes in at over $480,000.

That will be a 26% increase over the cost in late 2010.

I do shop very carefully and look for intrinsic value (large lot sizes, south facing rear yards, open space nature preserves to the rear, dymamic views, etc.). The banks have no idea the houses I buy are different from the similar models on the interior postage stamp lots backing up to other homes in the same neighborhood.

In the meantime, I put $14,000 down on an FHA loan at 4.25% + .5% MIP. Next month, I will have a new loan at 3.375% with no MIP (80% LTV) and my payment will drop by $600/mon with another $600/mon going to principal (vs $450 today).

I keep offering these examples to people on this HBB blog of how the market is turning and there are excellent values and benefits to people buying their own homes today.

You can sit on this blog and prognosticate all you want, but the time has come to take action if you can find a property you like and you can afford to buy it!

Comment by Housing Is A Massive Loss
2012-08-15 17:50:45

“I bet the appraisal comes in at over $480,000.”

And you couldn’t find a buyer for a small fraction of that amount.

And if you think “now is the time to buy”, you’re going to be stunned over the coming years and decades.

“prognostication”? Not really my friend. Housing prices are falling.

 
Comment by Robin
2012-08-15 18:15:52

MIP=PMI?

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 22:54:48

“Of course prices dropped thru 1995 and were flat from 95-97 recovering some from 97-00.

Just like values dropped from 2005 to 2010. 2010 is a trough. Going forward, prices are much more likely to go up than down.”

Did Uncle Sam intervene to prop up the market in 1995?

If not, I have to argue it’s different this time, and the market has farther to drop, as a temporarily-high plateau due to massive government intervention is not sustainable.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 22:55:52

“You can sit on this blog and prognosticate all you want, but the time has come to take action if you can find a property you like and you can afford to buy it!”

Pimp talk. I don’t have to buy, I don’t want to buy, and I won’t buy.

 
 
 
Comment by frankie
2012-08-15 02:37:31

The good news

UK unemployment falls to 2.56 million
Job centre There was a small fall in the number of young people out of work. The number of people out of work fell by 46,000 to 2.56 million in the three months to June, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The bad news

The number of people working part-time because they could not find a full-time job hit a record high.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19259913

Is part time work the new norm? It’s becoming more common in the UK and from comments made here it seems the US is going the same way.

Comment by goon squad
2012-08-15 06:27:33

Is part time work the new norm?

“You work three jobs? How uniquely American” - George W. Bush, 2005

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 06:32:57

Damn! Beat me to it!

 
Comment by michael
2012-08-15 06:45:25

how many hours in each job?

i spent a fair portion of my career working just one job…70-80 hours a week.

is that uniquely american?

Comment by frankie
2012-08-15 07:02:48

Snap, no it quite common in the UK too.

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Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 09:41:38

You can work a lot of weekly hours in almost any country in any industry. The biggest difference it annual days off, of which we Americans get the LEAST.

 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 06:41:59

Frankie, also remember the context that the US has no national health service. Because health insurance benefits don’t kick in until the worker is full time (in general, 40 hr/wk), it’s cheaper to employ two part-time workers than it is to employ 1 full-time worker. Some companies give employees 39 hours/week just to keep them off health insurance.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 06:59:45

Plus other bennies that workers take for granted across the globe, like paid holidays and vacations, are not mandatory in the USA and P/T workers are rarely granted paid time off by their employers in the USA.

Comment by goon squad
2012-08-15 07:08:06

An older piece from TomPaine dot com that illustrates the American Exceptionalism of how our health care “system” works for Lucky Duckies:

“Wal-Mart’s health insurance options for 2007, dubbed the “value plan” and the “freedom plan,” feature deductibles reaching as high as $6,000 for family coverage under the “freedom plan”—meaning that a Wal-Mart employee selecting that plan would have to fork over $6,000 before insurance started covering their family’s medical bills. That’s a lot of money for a cashier earning Wal-Mart wages, and it begs some serious questions about how a deductible that high can be met without going into debt.

According to an analysis by Wake-Up Wal-Mart, which supplied the internal corporate memo to the media, a full-time Wal-Mart worker could spend as much as 60 percent of his or her income on family health expenses before reaching the out-of-pocket maximum.”

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 07:11:57

Yeah, like the average Wal-Mart employee has $6k laying around. Sure.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 07:23:05

feature deductibles reaching as high as $6,000 for family coverage under the “freedom plan”

Come on. “Freedom Plan”??! They have to be laughing their a$$es off at us coming up with these names and “plans”. (laughing all the way to the bailed out banks)

a full-time Wal-Mart worker could spend as much as 60 percent of his or her income on family health expenses before reaching the out-of-pocket maximum.”

Where’s the liberty in this? Most Americans are already in shackles….Uniquely American.

 
Comment by vinceinwaukesha
2012-08-15 07:27:19

“Yeah, like the average Wal-Mart employee has $6k laying around. Sure.”

Its a great plan for 20-somethings. In my 20s my healthcare expenses were zero. Seems crazy but its true. Never went to a Dr or ER for any reason… never had to.

Now with a $6K deductible, if I had gotten in a terrible car accident I’d have coverage so I’d get treatment and rehab, afterwards I’d declare bankruptcy on the $6000 deductible and its all good.

As a (late) teenager I had a lucky ducky teenage girlfriend who broke her arm and she pretty much shrugged her (unbroken) shoulders at the ER bill which she never paid (it was hyperinflated as an uninsured person to be roughly the cost at the time of a house), but getting the cast removed was quite an ordeal. As an uninsured person you can get a cast put on for free, but getting it removed is (or at least was) a whole nother problem. Lots of teasing about how her boyfriend (me) was going to be stuck buying a saw.

I don’t think the 6K deductible on a $8K income is a valid plan for me in my 30s w/ wife and kids and seemingly monthly dr appointments. Then again a $8K/yr income isn’t any more reasonable for 30s me and my family.

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 07:35:31

My recollection is that Wal-mart and other floor-level retail jobs were never designed to be a benefit-laden career. Stocking and cashiering were what women did after the kids were old enough to latch-key, just to keep wife occupied and to bring in some extra cash in addition to hubby’s professional income.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 07:45:58

Wal-mart and other floor-level retail jobs were never designed to be a benefit-laden career until benefit-laden careers were designed to disappear.

 
Comment by goon squad
2012-08-15 07:59:51

My recollection is that Wal-mart and other floor-level retail jobs were never designed to be a benefit-laden career

And my recollection is that there was a time in this country, say about 1945-1975, when there were jobs that paid living wages.

For Lucky Duckies in the year 2012, WalMart may be the only option (besides going on disability).

 
Comment by Montana
2012-08-15 08:19:52

Wow, my company policy has an $8,000 family deductible.

I’m a lucky ducky indeed!

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-15 10:52:34

Hospitals used to consider most holders of high deductible policies to be essentially the same as not insured. Since most issues didn’t reach the price level where the policy would kick in, they got nothing from the HDinsured person plus their insurance company and nothing from the uninsured person.

Please note, this information is a few years old so that, as more and more middle class people have been forced into these policies, the hospitals may be having more luck getting paid for bills that don’t reach the level where the insurance kicks in.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-15 12:15:28

I have an HD policy in conjunction with a HSA. So far I haven’t had any issues with getting service even before they know about the HSA.

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-15 12:47:41

I didn’t say they didn’t provide service. I said they considered the people to be the same as uninsured. The patients were treated and billed for services. The hospitals just didn’t expect to get much compensation beyond what they would get from a person without insurance. Not zero, just not likely to be the whole bill.

You should know that the people I was talking to about this issue were involved in Catholic hospital systems. They considered treating people who couldn’t pay to be a fundamental part of their business model.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 13:02:12

I have a first world private quality health insurance plan in Brazil. Late 40’s. $10-20 co-pay. No deductible that I know of. It covers Hospital, Doctors, Dental, vision, mental health, substance abuse, acupuncture, counseling, homeopathic, tests, cat scans, etc How much? $135 a month at today’s exchange rate.

But wait…..It gets even better. When I cut my head on a Sunday when my private doctor was closed, I didn’t want to bother going to my private hospital across town so I went to the free “Che Guevara” community medical clinic where they patched me up for (drumroll) FREE! Pain pills? Free

My friend, an American Brazil resident like me, had a back that needed 3 smashed vertebrae fuzed in an 8 hour very serious operation. He had no insurance so he went to the local and huge “Joseph Stalin” Memorial Public hospital. Cat Scans, tests, 21 days in the hospital and the 8 hour operation. Oh, I forgot, plus followup tests and physical therapy Cost: (drumrolllllllllll) FREE
(but the walls were drab and the food sucked) :)

 
 
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 07:34:54

” in the USA and P/T workers are rarely granted paid time off by their employers in the USA.”

Bunk.

The majority of part time employers offer at least some type of time off bank. Even Wal-Mart.

I’ve seen quite a few fast food outlets not offer any.

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 09:03:09

My kids all have retail jobs while working in college. They don’t get paid time off. Maybe WalMart gives its cashiers paid time off, but a lot of other places don’t.

Heck, at our local public library, the bottom rung on the ladder are known as “pages”. They typically work 15-20 hours a week and they are 100% unbenefitted.

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 09:11:09

I’ve worked many part time jobs, including burger flipper, stock boy, waiter, pizza delivery and cashier. I never got paid time off at any of those part-time jobs.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 09:30:51

Maybe I was just lucky? Maybe my competition in the job market is just that generous?

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 09:48:32

It is.

I now work for a VLC (very large company) professional staffing agency and I don’t get ANY paid time off. Not sick days. Not even vacation.

I can take all the time I want, I just won’t get paid for it.

In fact, I haven’t seen a paid day off in 14 years.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 10:13:21

“a VLC (very large company) professional staffing agency…”

The new meaning of being a “professional”?

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 11:01:18

For many, yes.

New? Not since the 1990s, no.

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-15 12:49:16

So, Andy, is that an admission that when you say “the majority of” you actually mean “a few instances that I personally know about”?

 
Comment by Awaiting
2012-08-15 18:31:07

Turkey
What is the stats for temp to perm overall, especially in the Accounting or Finance sectors?
I read your industry has done well in this downturn. Do you think it is the new employee model going forward?

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-15 19:29:44

So, Andy, is that an admission that when you say “the majority of” you actually mean “a few instances that I personally know about”?

LOL. I call them ‘Bad Andy Facts’, and I was complaining about them yesterday.

I’m not saying he makes them up completely. But I don’t think he actually researches or verifies them. If it feels right, by golly he goes with it.

 
 
 
 
Comment by vinceinwaukesha
2012-08-15 07:03:35

“Is part time work the new norm?”

I’m curious if its traditional part time like the retail jobs I worked as a teenager or perma-temp / contractor like a bunch of my former coworkers have been downsized into. Word on the street is once you move into a job like that, you’ll never be hired full time again, at least not if HR has anything to say about it.

Comment by goon squad
2012-08-15 07:14:12

^Yup. Once you fall (or get pushed) off the hamster wheel, it’s not easy to get back on. Been there, done that in 2009-2010.

Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-08-15 07:44:16

I kicked over the hamster wheel in ‘92. I’m a raptor, not a rodent.

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Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 09:50:03

Don’t think you can’t still be lunch…

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-15 10:19:19

This Nations economic systems post War War 2 was built on
Employers paying for health care and other benefits given ,plenty of full time jobs and overtime given , vacation time given , cost of living raises being standard practice in a lot of industries ,cheaper college costs ,min.wage becoming more reasonable as well as working condition advancements ,etc. In fact, the War on Poverty was a National rah rah goal and major advancement was attempted with the War on inequality with race and ‘Women’s rights .” Borders were more protected

The trade deficit was sane and tariffs were charged . Competition was within the United States between Industries and the Stock market was something that took a smaller portion of the GNP.Banks made qualified loans
and actually made the people qualify for credit and they were seperated from Investment Banks ,as they should be
by Glass-Steagall Act. Monopolies were frowned on , and Government wasn’t as big. Manufacturing was big and Ma and Pop stores were numerous ,and everything was based on local economies ,not GLobalism .The main stream media was actually more balanced and wasn’t used so much for a PR platform for Political self interest groups.
There was the brainwashing of the population by advertisers to buy ,buy ,buy ,but there was more of a seperation of Advertisers for Products with Politcial
agenda . There was always the rah rah America theme ,and no doubt most Countries have themes like that also .
The middle class and the “Silent Majority”, that they use to call it ,were thriving and the America dream was actually
possible ,not hollow words like they are today .Hard work or creative work or invention ,or risk ,could actualy pay off in America and the rags to riches stories were actually possible . Education and Scientific advancement was held up as a worthy goal ,and we actually went to the Moon
if you don’t believe the stories that that was faked .Actually we just landed on Mars also .

China was viewed as a Commie Country that was better
left in their isolated stance ,until Nixon opened the box.
People didn’t even know that the Federal Reserve was a
Private Corporation of Bankers and I think most people thought that it was a division of the Government that was in charge of doing things for the good of America as a whole regarding interest rates and money supply . Social nets and SSI and welfare were developed ,but they were
mismanaged as time went on .

We did get into relying on foreign oil ( which was really really cheap ) but we also would drill here in America more .I admit that people were not as energy concious
because energy was cheap and abundant ,and that is a luxury that America can not take for granted anymore .
The American auto was a big Industry ,and post World War 2 the development of intrastructure was fueling many jobs .Other Countries no doubt were held back by the aftermath of World War 2 ,so we had a advantage there.
We became the envy of the World and we became a major consumer economy with all systems dependant on that theme song .We became more concious of pollution control and toxic waste ,but we did not advance enough
in those areas ,and mass transit hasn’t been developed as
much as it should of .

So ,I contend that you cannot do everything in your power to tear down those systems that were operational for so long and transfer the wealth to a smaller segment of the Population as well as increase Monopoly power and Globalism and Military without the most major upheavel
to the American Citizens .The Political lobby system is nothing more than the people with the wealth and power win ,never mind national security or promote the general welfare for the Citizens of USA ,and corruption has reached unacceptable levels ,and no longer is the “Rule of
Law” taken very serious . Justice is replaced by Bail Outs
and the picking of winners and losers .
The American people were not doing their job of watching the hen house either and they contributed to the problem
by having their own greed or fear or entitlement mentality
blind them to what was going on and the sort of hijacking of America that was going on ,but they were lied to repeatedly and really didn’t know what was going on in a lot of cases . They didn’t really understand the consequences of their acts because they were like dopers
just buying into the hype .

This was a long rant ,and I’m sorry for that ,so you can just skip over it if you don’t want to read it . I welcome being corrected on anything that I have said above ,because my interest is to understand what went wrong and what factors played into that . I really don’t believe that people
want poverty or freedoms taken away or low level lifestyles ,and I don’t really believe people favor War as a solution or being at the mercy of Madmen. It’s all about the BEEHIVE functioning in my view .

 
Comment by Northeastener
2012-08-15 11:21:52

I’ve stated it here before, but Employer Paid Health Benefits came out of the price and wage freezes and labor shortages of WWII. Companies needed bodies as most of the eligible men were drafted for the war effort. Wages were frozen by the government, so in order to attract people from other employers/industries, employer-paid benefits were offered as a perk.

Prior to the 1940’s, this didn’t exist.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-15 11:35:15

But the health care perk became a long term system,and this was the very thing that caused it to skyrocked out of control in costs along with all the other corruptions that took place .

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 11:50:31

Nice screed, Wiz, and in the spirit in which it was presented here are a few quibbles and questions:

…This Nations economic systems post War War 2 was built on
Employers paying for health care…

Health care benefits were not common until the mid-1960’s when Kaiser-type programs were implemented and Medicare (I.E.; the dreaded “socialized medicine”) passed during the Johnson Administration.

…cost of living raises being standard practice in a lot of industries…

Not until SS was pegged to the inflation index in the mid-1970’s.

…cheaper college costs…

Only for GI’s. They were proportionately expensive for everyone else. The State College system explosion in the 1980’s addressed the problem, though temporarily.

…min.wage becoming more reasonable…

Hardly. Same arguments about “living wages” then as now, and always a big political hot potato.

…Borders were more protected…

Nope. See: Bracero Program under Eisenhower, Farm Workers Union under Nixon, IRCA under Reagan (gov and pres)….

…The Political lobby system is nothing more than the people with the wealth and power win …and corruption has reached unacceptable levels ,and no longer is the “Rule of
Law” taken very serious . Justice is replaced by Bail Outs
and the picking of winners and losers….

How was this any different in the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, 80’s, 90’s?

…but they were lied to repeatedly and really didn’t know what was going on in a lot of cases . They didn’t really understand the consequences of their acts….

Again, Korea? Viet Nam? Iraq 1&2? Grenada? Kosovo? Covert overthrow of dozens of foreign governments for benefit of American corporations?

I contend that nothing “went wrong”. Our system (as all systems) is simply a function of too many people all pursuing their private interests– and was ever thus. Periodically we stop, reassess, and pull together for awhile to realign so we don’t derail and blow ourselves up, then we go back to our own insular pursuits.

Now is one of those times when we have a chance to reevaluate. Will we be as dramatic in that reinvention (and as successful) as PRC after Mao? Israel after WW2? The Evangelical Xtian movement post- Jimmy Carter?

Time will tell.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 12:51:12

” …Borders were more protected…

Nope. See: Bracero Program under Eisenhower, Farm Workers Union under Nixon, IRCA under Reagan (gov and pres)….”

Maybe the borders didn’t need to be “protected” before the days of the Mexodus.

On the other hand …

When I lived in Mexico City in the 70’s , my dad had a few workers at his injection molding shop who tried their hand at being illegals. According to them being caught and sent back was a common experience, so much so that they gave up trying.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-15 14:30:43

ahansen …..my span of time I spoke of was broad and covered about a 40 year period without being specific to the exact inceptions of “systems ” . There was also some development in systems that go back even further to the early part of the 19th Century ,but the big surge in middle class advancement was post World War 2,IMHO .

I know that argiculture was the starting point for a lot of the influx of illegals ,but the growth of illegal immigration took on greater and greater numbers as time went on with less enforcement . But if you compared how they did immigration in the 20 and 30’s and 40’s ,there is no comparsion to the way it is now and has been for the last 20 years or so years .

Don’t underestimate how many Gi’s used the college benefits, but the inflation on College costs went off the charts and it was fueled by the easy credit factor also .

But I think everyone can agree that the Standard of living for the middle class rose the most between 1948 and 1985,and it can be directly pegged to greater benefits and wages from the Employers ,combined with plentiful jobs and more of a closed economic system .We had greater
protection that we didn’t have to compete with World
slave labor and the issue wasn’t even discussed because it wasn’t a issue during the growth years . it’s bad enough to have to compete with your own fellow Countrymen let alone the whole exploited World .

We actually had the luxury to work on racial issues and
women rights issues ,which is usually what happens when a Society has been uplifted out of extreme class systems .

In the 90’s they jailed Bankers( about 3 thousand ) for lessor crimes than what took place this last lending crime spree ,and most people would agree that the ‘Rule Of Law ” is a joke these days .They didn’t give Bail Outs to Bankers/Investment firms after the Great Stock Market crash of 1929 and many a rich person went down the tubes with the Country ,rather than being protected during that meltdown .Nobody can say that the trillions of dollars in
Bail Outs of different forms that took place recently were
something that has ever been done to this level ,with no one being held responsible along with the BS of we need to
save Wall Street and the Banks so Main Street can thrive .

THe upper 15 % paid much higher taxes for many of the years following World War 2 ,but that was slowly taken away until we have the lower levels of today .

Of course everyone was in pursuit of their own interest as you suggest ,but how that is regulated and how fair that is
goes a long way toward how the distribution of the weath
will end up .Taxes go a long way toward influencing that
distribution ,as well as interest rates ,tariffs ,money supply etc.

But the evidence of that period I spoke of in American history being more favorable to the middle class by the factors I broadly spoke about is confirmmed by the fact that America did thrive when the conditions were present that I spoke of ,no matter how much you think things were the same all along . THe evidence of the stability of our financial system and job base and tax revenue base is clear until these last decades. Wall Street was tied into Main Street USA ,not decoupled from it like what is occurring today . The manufacturing and job loss to this Country is staggering verses the Golden years I speak of .

But ,I admit I’m a broad stroker when I write ,more of looking at the forest type thinker I guess . But ,I’m also a person that went through a lot of the modern history of
America after World War 2 ,and nothing is greater than
recall of how it really was .

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 17:02:20

“…and nothing is greater than
recall of how it really was ….”

+1, and perhaps why I’m so vehement about correcting historical misperceptions written by people who weren’t even there.
Keep the faith, Wiz!

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-15 19:58:36

People have been trying to get national health insurance at least since Teddy Roosevelt ran with it on his plank and lost. His cousin FDR later wanted to implement it, but decided to focus on Social Security instead, as the unions wanted the perk to be connected with employment. Truman then tried and failed after that.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by frankie
2012-08-15 03:41:20

“The Euro or Not?” That was the question posed by the front page of a recent edition of Finland’s leading news magazine, Suomen Kuvalehti.

It continued: “Finland’s return to the markka [the national currency before the Euro] is not impossible.”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19255586

 
Comment by frankie
2012-08-15 03:45:23

A Spanish mayor who became a cult hero for staging robberies at supermarkets and giving stolen groceries to the poor sets off this week on a three-week march that could embarrass the government and energise anti-austerity campaigners.

Juan Manuel Sanchez Gordillo, regional lawmaker and mayor of the town of Marinaleda - population 2,645 - in the southern region of Andalusia, said food stolen last week in the robberies went to families hit hardest by Spain’s economic crisis.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0815/breaking14.html

 
Comment by Lip
2012-08-15 04:03:56

President Obama’s $700 Billion Medicare Problem

The most salient fact is that, to pass Obamacare, the president cut Medicare by more than $700 billion over the coming decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). And these cuts are of the worst kind. They are arbitrary and across the board. They reduce reimbursement rates for all who provide services to Medicare patients, regardless of how well or badly they treat their patients.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/314024/president-obama-s-700-billion-medicare-problem-james-c-capretta

So let me get this right. Romney/Ryan are evil white guys that want to throw grandma off the cliff just before she dies of starvation.

When in reality, it’s the Dem’s that don’t care about grandma.

Comment by polly
2012-08-15 06:25:26

You will want to click on the link to see the chart.

Romney’s right: Obamacare cuts Medicare by $716 billion. Here’s how.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/14/romneys-right-obamacare-cuts-medicare-by-716-billion-heres-how/

First, where it comes from. On July 24, the Congressional Budget Office sent a letter to House Speaker John Boehner, detailing the budget impact of repealing the Affordable Care Act. If Congress overturned the law, “spending for Medicare would increase by an estimated $716 billion over that 2013–2022 period.”

As to how the Affordable Care Act actually gets to $716 billion in Medicare savings, that’s a bit more complicated. John McDonough did the best job explaining it in his 2011 book, “Inside National Health Reform.” There, he looked at all the various Medicare cuts Democrats made to pay for the Affordable Care Act.

[chart]

The blue section represents reductions in how much Medicare reimburses private, Medicare Advantage plans. That program allows seniors to join a private health insurance, with the federal government footing the bill. The whole idea of Medicare Advantage was to drive down the cost of health insurance for the elderly as private insurance companies competing for seniors’ business.

That’s not what happened. By 2010, the average Medicare Advantage per-patient cost was 117 percent of regular fee-for-service. The Affordable Care Act gives those private plans a haircut and tethers reimbursement levels to the quality of care administered, and patient satisfaction.

The Medicare Advantage cut gets the most attention, but it only accounts for about a third of the Affordable Care Act’s spending reduction. Another big chunk comes from the hospitals. The health law changed how Medicare calculates what they get reimbursed for various services, slightly lowering their rates over time. Hospitals agreed to these cuts because they knew, at the same time, they would likely see an influx of paying patients with the Affordable Care Act’s insurance expansion.

The rest of the Affordable Care Act’s Medicare cuts are a lot smaller. Reductions to Medicare’s Disproportionate Share Payments — extra funds doled out the hospitals that see more uninsured patients — account for 5 percent in savings. Lower payments to home health providers make up another 8.8 percent. About a dozen cuts of this magnitude make up the green section above.

It’s worth noting that there’s one area these cuts don’t touch: Medicare benefits. The Affordable Care Act rolls back payment rates for hospitals and insurers. It does not, however, change the basket of benefits that patients have access to. And, as Ezra pointed out earlier today, the Ryan budget would keep these cuts in place.

Comment by goon squad
2012-08-15 06:41:05

The current headline on Drudge, linked from esteemed journalistic beacon of excellence, the Washington Examiner:

“For the first time since he began running for president, Republican Mitt Romney has the support of over 40 percent of America’s youth vote, a troubling sign for President Obama who built his 2008 victory with the overwhelming support of younger, idealistic voters. Pollster John Zogby of JZ Analytics told Secrets Tuesday that Romney received 41 percent in his weekend poll of 1,117 likely voters, for the first time crossing the 40 percent mark. What’s more, he said that Romney is the only Republican of those who competed in the primaries to score so high among 18-29 year olds.

“This is the first time I am seeing Romney’s numbers this high among 18-29 year olds,” said Zogby. “This could be trouble for Obama who needs every young voter he can get.”

Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-15 07:06:13

LOL. Can’t dispute the facts, so the liberals attack the source. November 7th is going to be so much fun.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 07:36:58

LOL. Can’t dispute the facts, so the liberals…..

LOL? I don’t think you’re really laughing. I don’t. I think you’re faking it and your LOL’s and your yapping dog strawman posts indicate you are a bit nervous. Here’s a funny article and video about another fake laugh when someone is nervous.

Mitt Romney’s Terrible Laugh

It’s wince-inducing, and most often deployed when the former Massachusetts governor is lying.

Some public figures get defined by a single image, or a single statement (”Ask not what your country can do for you”; “I am not a crook”). Others have a characteristic linguistic tic or hand gesture that through repetition come to embody them; think of Ronald Reagan’s head shake, George W. Bush’s shoulder-shimmy, or that closed-fist-with-thumb-on-top thing Bill Clinton used to do.

For Mitt Romney, it’s the laugh. I’m sure that at times Romney laughs with genuine mirth, but you know the laugh I’m talking about. It’s the one he delivers when he gets asked a question he doesn’t want to answer, or is confronted with a demand to explain a flip-flop or a lie. It’s the phoniest laugh in the world, the one New York Times reporter Ashley Parker wrote “sounds like someone stating the sounds of laughter, a staccato ‘Ha. Ha. Ha.’”

Everything Mitt Romney is as a candidate is distilled within that laugh—his insincerity, his ambition, his awkwardness, and above all his fear. When Mitt laughs that way, he is not amused. He is terrified. Because he knows that what he’s saying is utter baloney, and he knows that we know it.

http://prospect.org/article/mitt-romneys-terrible-laugh

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 07:39:12

More like the young girls turned on by Ryan’s looks? Kinda like the old guys turned on by Sister Sarah?

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-15 07:41:05

November 7th is going to be so much fun.

And there’s money to be made if you’re correct. Current casino odds:

Obama 4-11

Romney 2-1

 
Comment by goon squad
2012-08-15 08:10:54
 
Comment by Steve J
2012-08-15 08:53:45

Washington Examiner? Didnt that the paper that sponsored one of the Republican debates last year?

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 08:58:34

Very well then, NOT just the young girls. I heard that Ryan’s blue eyes are much in demand among the alternative lifestyles too.

 
Comment by Beer and Cigar Guy
2012-08-15 09:54:16

It never ceases to amaze me when I watch slavering Republicans and Democrats tearing each other’s throats out, bragging about how THEIR crooked idiot candidate is less of an idiot than YOUR crooked idiot candidate. Helluva choice there, kids. I also love how both parties- who are supposed to be so drastically different- both warn the same thing whenever a third political party is mentioned: “You’ll just be throwing your vote away!!”

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-08-15 10:04:28

“You’ll just be throwing your vote away!!”

I couldn’t be more proud, for the first time in my life, of doing just that. For once, I’ll be voting my true conscience.

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-15 10:59:20

Why reply to a post that discussed the details of the funding reductions to Medicare with nationwide poll numbers for 18 to 29 year olds? Seriously, what does one have to do with the other?

[Consider repeated, the truism about the election not being a nationwide contest.]

 
Comment by goon squad
2012-08-15 13:46:17

Post was in reply to this:

Romney/Ryan are evil white guys that want to throw grandma off the cliff just before she dies of starvation.

When in reality, it’s the Dem’s that don’t care about grandma.

And yes, Paul Ryan is gay.

 
 
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-15 07:09:01

Speaking of polls….

“In an ABC News/Washington Post poll, 28 percent of seniors viewed Ryan favorably while 28 percent viewed him unfavorably before Romney selected him to be his running mate. After his selection, 46% of those seniors now view him favorably while 28 percent still view him unfavorably. In just one weekend, Ryan has increased his favorability numbers among seniors by 14 percentage points, even as Democrats spent the weekend trying to demonize Ryan and his budget.

Public Policy Polling (PPP), the left-leaning outfit that does polling for the liberal website, Daily Kos, polled voters in Ohio over the weekend, tweeted that Ryan’s numbers in Ohio are actually best among seniors, with 38 percent of seniors viewing Ryan favorability as opposed to 29 percent who see him unfavorably.”

Democrats always assume people are stupid. For most of their base, they are correct. For seniors, not so much. The average senior knows the Democrat talking point of KILLING MEDICARE and throwing grandma off the cliff is pure BS.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:14:21

Couldn’t Obama completely lose the 18-29 year olds, yet still trounce R&R? I frankly don’t get the point about how Obama needs “every young voter.”

Anyway, the Iowa Electronic Market 2012 US Presidential Election Futures are moving decisively in Obama’s favor on the Ryan VP announcement. Why don’t they ever post stuff like that in the Drudge Report?

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 07:01:36

Darn those facts.

Comment by Bronco
2012-08-15 07:07:00

you too??

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Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 09:50:11

Res ipsa loquitur, Bronco. But every now and then we have to remind those who habitually forget to include them in their posts.

 
Comment by Bronco
2012-08-15 19:45:28

Understood, but the repetitive phraseology is mind-numbing and torturous.

 
 
 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 07:59:36

“Another big chunk comes from the hospitals. The health law changed how Medicare calculates what they get reimbursed for various services, slightly lowering their rates over time. Hospitals agreed to these cuts because they knew, at the same time, they would likely see an influx of paying patients with the Affordable Care Act’s insurance expansion.”

And there is the point.

Hospitals have to treat emergency patients whether those patients can pay or not. The cost is added on to paying customers.

IF there are more patients with insurance, then the amount that has to be added to other patients can be lowered.

We talk about how there are fewer people with insurance, and costs are going up for those with coverage, but fail to accept that these are related.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 10:06:30

I’m having a hard time parsing your post.

The Health Care Reform Act mandates that everyone have insurance, so how will there be fewer people with health insurance and won’t that resolve the problem?

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Comment by CharlieTango
2012-08-15 10:24:00

For most people it makes more sense to pay the fine than to obey the mandate.

After you pay your fine you are still without coverage.

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 10:47:40

But there is more to it than that. “Most” people will be able to buy from a mandated pool if they can’t afford retail.

Now they have coverage and don’t have to pay the fine.

There is no way everyone will ever be covered, but it will take a BIG chunk out of the “not covered” group that now exists.

My personal anecdote is that I know 3 people who can now afford insurance that couldn’t before. 3 people who desperately needed it. 3 people who have a better chance of living and not being a burden on the tax system.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-15 11:24:06

I am seeing crowded Hospital waiting rooms and Doctors offices . Health care reform was determined and based on a assumption of what the unemployment rate would be ,
what the overall consumption in the USA would be (which will go down ),and other facts like that .There will be more than 30 million prior uninsured that need the discount program and there will be less people holding up the end that is suppose to be the “able to afford ” portion .
I think we should ask China to contribute to our health care at this point .

The fact that we pay 50% more than other Western medical care Countries will be the overall cracking of the back ,coupled with the increase of the screwing of the middle class out of jobs and decent wages . Like someone was mentioning about Industry making sure they hire part time to screw people out of benefits .

Don’t you think that Health Bill was designed to actually increase the profits of the parasites of the Medical Business ? I will never forget the line ,”We have to pass the Bill to see what’s in it .”

I want a singer payer system with a overhaul on the costs and corruptions .Or, I want a total private system that will collaspe the system as it should collaspe from the weight of gouging and corruption and Monopoly price fixing .
After all the Medical system wasn’t based on supply and demand and true capitalism anyway . The Pharma Industry
profits are absurd and uncalled for . The insurance company profits are uncalled for also ,providers are riding the wave .

People say that this Bill puts us on the path of being able to get a single payer system that is sustainable ,but nothing is going to be sustainable if those overall costs stay high . No justification for the rise in health care cost
that can only be explained by price fixing monopoly powers
and a bleeding of the Medicare government funded cash cow .The people didn’t call the shot on the system because for years the darn employer paid for it ,or the government paid with Medicare allowing the system to
skyrocket 50% more in costs than it should of . They gave you the BS of research costs being high ,or equipment costing a lot ,or cancer cures that don’t cure being costly ,
or lawsuits on doctors being the main culprit , or pre-existing coditions being the culprit ,but never the main reasons .All BS that it will be the pathway to single pay ,they will never allow that . it won’t work ,the people are tapped out to much .

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 18:06:40

After you pay your fine you are still without coverage.</i

No, after you pay your fine, you will be covered by the emergency room, you freeloader.

Why should I pay for someone else’s emergency room care? They should have eaten right and exercised.

 
 
 
Comment by Lip
2012-08-15 09:56:22

Polly,

I read the article and it could be true. Don’t know for sure and to be honest don’t want to take the time to review everything because it doesn’t matter.

The fact remains that the RR team will be able to use sound bites to show that Obamacare, when enacted, will already be cutting the program $700B +.

IMO this will tend to negate any of the Dem’s attacks on Romney/Ryan and it might even turn the Medicare subject something the RR team can use against Obama.

Who knows if my opinion is right, but we shall see in the next couple of months.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-15 20:23:12

In other words Ryan’s both wrong and misleading, but you think the knuckleheads will buy it anyway.

And the sad thing is, you’re probably right.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 10:22:19

“The Affordable Care Act rolls back payment rates for hospitals and insurers. It does not, however, change the basket of benefits that patients have access to.”

Perhaps I take too simplistic a look at this, but wouldn’t lower reimbursemnt rates result in less quality of that basket of benefits, unless some efficiency improvement isn’t being mentioned.

Comment by polly
2012-08-15 11:02:25

The efficiency improvement for the hospitals is having to provide less care to patients with no insurance or useless insurance.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 12:15:31

By making Medicare a so-called useless insurance?

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-15 12:42:05

The hospitals consider high deductible plans to be useless - at least they used to a few years ago. The people who had them couldn’t afford to pay the deductible, so the only time the hospital got any compensation at all was if the care provided exceeded the deductible.

Medicare has 20% required co-pays which the hospital might not get if the senior doesn’t have a supplemental plan and doesn’t have the money to pay, but at least they don’t have to provide $6000 of care before getting a penny.

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-15 12:59:09

Pardon me, the only time they got compensation beyond what they would expect to get from an uninsured person, not any compensation at all. At the time the only people in the HD policies were fairly low income so they didn’t expect to get much if anything. As the policies creep into use for higher compensated employees, they are probably getting a bit more.

The very poor who aren’t undocumented often have access to Medicaid and aren’t uninsured, though the compensation is less than private insurance or Medicare.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-15 15:58:44

You think I can get $100,000.00 deductible policy at 5 bucks a month to satisfy the requirment to have insurance ?

 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 06:33:43

I’ll see you Obama’s $700 million and raise you Ryan’s exact same $700 million.

—————–
WaPo (Ezra Klein)

“Since the Romney campaign wants to run against President Obama’s cuts to Medicare, it’s something of a problem for them that Paul Ryan’s budget includes those very same cuts to Medicare. And so they’ve come up with a somewhat confused and confusing argument to distinguish the two plans…

Here’s what everyone agrees on: Ryan and Obama include the same cuts to the Medicare program itself. So if you’re an insurance company participating in the Medicare Advantage,/i> program, you’re getting the same cut no matter who wins the election. So the answer to the first question is, “the same amount as the Obama administration.”

What Romney/Ryan are saying is that they then take the money saved from their cuts to Medicare and put it toward deficit reduction while Obama takes that money and spends it on health care for poor people. The argument here is that by using the money to cut the deficit, Romney/Ryan make future cuts to Medicare less likely.”

———————

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/14/ryans-budget-keeps-obamas-medicare-cuts-full-stop/

Comment by michael
2012-08-15 06:47:37

so..they are the same?

 
Comment by Lip
2012-08-15 06:55:32

Yes, what you say about Ryan’s plan is true, but Romney has said that his plan isn’t going to be exactly what Ryan proposed, so there is room for him to adjust his plan.

Senior citizens know that Obama has already arranged for Medicare to be cut $700,000,000,000 + and they know that it’ll affect their medical treatment if it’s allowed to get enacted.

So, IMO, the Dems have a problem as they cannot “truthfully” attack Romney/Ryan regarding the gutting of Medicare. They will try but will they be successful??? We shall see.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 07:04:08

Romney has said that his plan isn’t going to be exactly what Ryan proposed

Funny how Mr. Romney never wants to reveal the details, whether it be which “tax loopholes” he’ll eliminate, what’s really on those secret tax returns or how he’ll “fix” Medicare.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 07:42:41

Funny how Mr. Romney never wants to reveal the details, whether it be which “tax loopholes” he’ll eliminate, what’s really on those secret tax returns or how he’ll “fix” Medicare.

Hey President Obama people if you’re reading. This is a very important point that Pres Obama can really hammer home during the debates.

Romney is a pig in a poke. Romney is buying a house without an inspection. Is Romney behind door #1 or #2?

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 07:58:35

Obama is short on details as well. He also can’t run on his record.

This is a choice between two bad politicians and it’s why I’ll be voting 3rd party.

 
Comment by scdave
2012-08-15 08:37:19

Funny how Mr. Romney never wants to reveal the details ??

Well sure….He is king etch-a-sketch…Pull Ryan on to the ticket and then suggest that you may propose something different…Keep the ball moving….

Is Romney behind door #1 or #2? ??

Spot on with this guy…..

 
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-08-15 08:57:22

You guys need to stop reading all the “information” put out my “mainstream” news organizations, who are really just part of the Democratic base.
Obama hasn’t past a single budget,not because the Republicans have stopped it, because the SENATE all votes 100% against any proposed budgets.
Also, Obama’s budget’s when not proposed in the Senate, don’t have any details, either.
Obama has gotten away with “passing” dozens of executive orders and working with the Attorney General to lawsuit his way around following the law and instead, buying votes for his “base”.
the latest outrage is trying to disenfranchise military voters, because military personnel tend to vote conservative.
Do the illegal aliens who he just wrote an executive order to provide green cards get to vote, too.
legally, no, but i’m sure there all lots of behind the scenes machinations to get them all ‘registered’, if they aren’t already.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 09:32:54

“Obama has gotten away with “passing” dozens of executive orders…”

Bingo. He was one of those howling when GWB did it.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 10:02:47

My concern with Romney is:

1) His promises to close loopholes will only affect the middle class, who will pay more taxes while the rich will pay even less.

2) His medicare reform will gut the system, replacing it with vouchers that won’t be enough to even cover an HD plan

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 10:10:36

“You guys need to stop reading all the “information” put out my “mainstream” news organizations, who are really just part of the Democratic base.”

I can’t tell if this is snark or you really believe this.

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 10:11:23

‘…the latest outrage is trying to disenfranchise military voters because they tend to vote conservative….”

Wait a minute. I thought we were disenfranchizing minority voters because they tend to vote Democratic.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 10:40:10

You only have 2 concerns Colorado? If I only had 2 concerns about either man I might vote for one of them.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 13:48:25

LOL! These ones are the ones applicable to this thread. I have all kinds of misgivings about Romney (and Obama too)

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 23:01:24

“He also can’t run on his record.”

- Got Bin Laden.

- Got us out of Iraq (mostly).

- Got us out of the Great Recession.

Yep — complete failure, and I am sure a Republicant wouldn’t have made any of these mistakes.

 
 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 09:57:17

I’ll say it again, Lip. The bulk of the $700B cut is to a redundant giveaway to the insurance companies called Medicare Advantage. It’s a payment to insurers for administering the exact same thing Medicare does, only at double the price to taxpayers, then essentially billing Medicare for giving them Medicare.

So why would you be so upset by this?

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Comment by CharlieTango
2012-08-15 10:22:12

So why would you be so upset by this?

Because its a lie. $700B is cut from compensation to providers nothing is cut from services. There is already a trend where fewer providers accept medicare after adding a $700B cut then it is logical to conclude that the trend will continue and accelerate. You can’t cut that much money without cutting services.

The other part of the lie is that purported savings are counted twice.

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 10:43:32

Only if you define “providers” as HMOs. Next.

 
Comment by Lip
2012-08-15 11:15:59

ahansen,

I am not upset by it, I am stating a fact.

The Obama team (the Prez, Biden, assorted Dem politicians and most of the Main Stream Media) will be attacking Romney’s choice of Ryan. At this point their main point of attack was thought to be Ryan’s plan to rescue Medicare. Have you heard the ads about throwing grandma over the cliff, starving senior citizens, and killing them even?

Question: If Obamacare is allowed to be enacted on 1/1/2013, it is already set up to cut Medicare by more than $700B. So how hard is it going to be to show the senior citizens who really wants to cut Medicare??? Obama or the RR team?

My service to you liberal/progressive folks was to give you a heads up, that’s all. I do not hate you guys. For some reason I think it’s important that we all learn to discuss this stuff without resorting to a bunch of name calling.

Also, the next two months are going to be fun to watch.

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 12:16:28

When you post stuff like this:

“…And these cuts are of the worst kind. They are arbitrary and across the board. They reduce reimbursement rates for all who provide services to Medicare patients, regardless of how well or badly they treat their patients….”

Then say:

“…So let me get this right. Romney/Ryan are evil white guys that want to throw grandma off the cliff just before she dies of starvation. When in reality, it’s the Dem’s that don’t care about grandma….”

Don’t be surprised when someone calls you on it. Especially when you’re spreading political spin and misinformation they’ve already corrected.

“…I think it’s important that we all learn to discuss this stuff without resorting to a bunch of name calling….”

+1. ;-)

 
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-08-15 18:10:02

wwhbd?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:15:35

Aren’t Romneycare and Obamacare pretty much the same thing?

Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-08-15 07:46:36

As are Romney and Obama.

 
Comment by Steve J
2012-08-15 08:56:02

Both are ideas promoted by the Koch brothers.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 10:04:45

Apparently Romneycare pays for abortions while Obamacare doesn’t

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 23:03:35

Doesn’t that make Romneycare more of a LIBRULL plan than Obamacare?

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Comment by WT Economist
2012-08-15 10:08:55

You mean cut the rate of growth of the program, to do something for someone OTHER than today’s seniors for a change.

Whereas the Republicans jacked up Medicare spending on today’s seniors while promising to slash it drastically for future seniors.

I think that’s the whole election right there. Those under age 55 should never, ever vote Republican ever again. If they believe in lower government spending, they’ll need to start a new party (unfortunately the pro senior spending Tea Party wasn’t it).

Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-15 22:46:21

Oh come on you guys ,the only thing that is going to work is
a re-write of Health Care Reform ,and a single payer system
is probably the best way to go about it ,along with reducing the costs and getting rid of this price fixing Monopoly that Health care has become ,along with the parasites called the Private Insurance Companies ,and Big Pharma .

Do you think the health care system would of become one of the most expensive health systems in the World had it been run based on pure capitalism and supply and demand principals ?
What fed the beast . Medicare/medical and employer paid health care fed the beast .

Why should health care be tied to jobs anyway ?

Are we looking for efficiency ? Are we looking for at least basic coverage for all ?

The health care costs for the 80 million baby boomers is not sustainable at current levels of health care costs …no way .
Bet your life on it that rationing will take place given current cost’s. Bet your life that the current job base and tax revenue base ,and that which will erode more, will not sustain the health care costs ,which keep going up .

Everybody complains about the growth of the government sector
jobs and the increase in those costs that aren’t sustainable ,but they can’t see how the Health Care sector was just as absurd.

Insurance Companies distort the cost of things .

The Obama plan, the Ryan Plan ,or any plan other than single pay ,cut the costs plan isn’t going to work .

 
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 04:21:13

Happy 100th birthday, Julia Child! Bon appetit, everyone!

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-15 04:36:54

Anyone been shorting Groupon?

I never saw that there was a lot of long term possibility in a business that was dependent on businesses being willing to give away a lot of their products at 25% of their normal fee. Just seemed not to be the sort of thing that would get businesses to be repeat customers.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 05:17:58

It was a couple of years ago when I heard a member of our local business and entertainment communities saying “No way!” to Groupon. Why? Because he thought it would be too expensive for the organization he was running.

He hasn’t changed his mind.

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 06:19:11

I think that all three internet flops, groupon + linked-in + facebook, were overvalued because WS was hoping to revive some of the old irrational exuberance of the dot-com bubble. Yeah, and then they rediscovered why the internet stocks flopped the first time.

Comment by Steve J
2012-08-15 08:57:17

Linked-in is not a flop by any means.

Now Zynga…

Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-08-15 22:14:32

“Linked-in is not a flop by any means.”

Yet. Bunch of people telling each other how good they are and now many contacts they have.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-15 13:21:55

I really like some new Google ads, the text reads:

“You know who needs a haircut?

People searching for a haircut.”

I don’t see other advertising business models beating that concept. They can try, but the demise of Google at the hands of Facebook, Linked-In, etc. was a bit premature.

 
 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 06:37:54

Short term special sales are an old time tested and honored way to get repeat business or new business.

Coupons always have expiration dates. Therefore, there is no danger in a surprise hit to sales, months after the sale promotion.

Comment by polly
2012-08-15 08:31:45

Except that if you listen to the interviews with business people who have done groupons, there was a giant rush to book services (or go to the restaurant or whatever) right at the start and at the expiration date. And they said that the inevitable decline in service angered their regular customers and didn’t particularly impress the groupon people. Plus unlike a regular “special” the groupon people had already paid, so if the only times left were times that were inconvinient for them, they didn’t just lose the opportunity to get a good deal, they lost their money as well. And that really bugged them.

Groupon is impulse shopping. Well, there is a reason that supermarkets put candy in the impulse shopping area, not aged balsamic. Get a bad groupon a few times, and you are going to stop. Businesses are also going to get a lot of impulse shoppers who would never pay their regular prices even if they loved the service. What good does that do?

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-08-15 09:15:55

they lost their money as well.

Groupons don’t lose the money you spent. In other words if you spent $15 to get $30 to apply to a dinner, and then don’t use it in time, your original $15 is still usable at the restaurant.

You lose the value gained from buying the Groupon, but not the upfront amount spent.

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Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 10:19:11

Being unprepared for the results of a successful promotion resulting in poor customer service is also a time honored way of conducting business. :lol:

Most retailing is bi-polar. I hate retail.

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Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 13:53:58

Prediction: Amazon will buy groupon and find a way to sell those groupons themselves.

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Comment by polly
2012-08-15 15:36:06

Amazon already sends out groupon-like offers. I get one every day. I even used one once (it was free and gave me a few bucks to use to buy Amazon MP3s).

 
Comment by Overtaxed
2012-08-15 16:01:08

Prediction:

I shop almost exclusively online, and I spend, compared to most consumers, a tremendous amount of money online. I’ve been a member of Groupon pretty much from the beginning. I’ve NEVER bought a single thing from them, because, in all the times they send me coupons, it’s never been for something I particularly want.

I’m also a very careful shopper. I often buy coupons from Ebay and use them online and at local stores (Lowes and HD being the biggest, a 2 dollar coupon can save you up to 500 dollars a shot at either of them).

For example, I just checked my e-mail for the last Groupon deals. Here’s what they sent me on Monday:

73% off foot reflexology massages
90% off laser hair removal
94% off Yoga
58% off custom facials
57% off dog spa bath

WTH do you expect me to do with this Groupon. I’m a male, and I don’t have a dog. :)

I actually got curious, the only thing they’ve ever sent me that I might actually use is some vacation packages. But I generally distrust that idea (package vacations) so I doubt I’ll ever use it.

Now, I just looked at my Amazon history. Over the last 90 days I have almost 30 orders. Lots of books (Kindle). Lots of stuff. And LOTS of money. That’s a business that has a model, Groupon is a “fad”. It has almost no barrier to entry, and, most importantly, they don’t sell stuff that most people want to impulse buy.

Prediction. Worthless in 24-36 months.

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 18:40:20

Angie’s List has a similar program called The Big Deal.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Lip
2012-08-15 04:39:29

Muni Investors Vs. California Public Workers

In Stockton, salaries account for $54 million of about $122 million in total worker compensation.

Its average compensation cost is about $125,000 per employee.

But Sacramento doesn’t seem in much of a position to bail out its distressed cities these days. “At this moment, California is every bit as insolvent as the cities that are trooping to bankruptcy court,”

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2012/08/15/muni_investors_vs_california_public_workers_99823.html

At some point, the workers are going to have to take a cut. How long before that actually happens?

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 06:40:25

At some point, cities are going to have to stop giving businesses multi-million dollar tax breaks. How long before that happens?

Comment by Lip
2012-08-15 07:02:12

TL,
I suppose some of the tax breaks are good deals but I imagine that most are not. How do you quantify the fact that x number of people have a job and are able to spend their money in this town?

I am kind of amazed that the “average” city employee in Stockton makes $125,000. I bet the Stockton tax breaks were questionable at best.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 07:07:39

Stockton is filing for BK. After the BK they still won’t have the money to make good on the pensions and salaries, and they certainly won’t be able to borrow it. And because of prop 13 they won’t be able to raise property taxes to cover it either.

It’s over.

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Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 10:25:31

The avg public employee doesn’t make $125K. That’s “total compensation”. What does “total compensation” include, exactly?

Paycheck
Medical benefits
Dental (?)
Eye (?)
Retirement contribution (?)
Vacation pay (?)
Sick day pay (?)
Vacation/sick days rollover (?)

Just what IS the breakdown?

The phrase “total compensation” is ALWAYS used to incite and provoke.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-15 10:41:29

The phrase “total compensation” is ALWAYS used to incite and provoke.

Or mislead and propagandize in the case of the “total compensation” paperwork they always gave us in the army to show us how crazy we’d be to get out. Some of us didn’t realize we were upper middle class in the army until they showed us.

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 10:50:28

Great example. :lol:

 
Comment by Lip
2012-08-15 11:53:35

OK, so the average Stockton employee is pulling down $100k in salary.

It seems too much no matter how you slice up the pie. I mean I can see the city management, all depts, getting something like that, but there are a lot of lesser workers.

If they were in San Francisco or Newport Beach this amount of money would be understandable, but Stockton?

 
Comment by Steve J
2012-08-15 12:04:38

Total compensation is the amount tax payers have to pay.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-15 22:55:46

I am a little shocked about Stockton being that high .

All costs seem high now in light of the real estate crash .

 
 
 
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 08:10:21

The tax breaks draw in business which draws in jobs and other tax revenue. The real problem is government living within their means. During the boom time many local governments spend like drunken sailors on leave.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 08:20:11

During the boom time many local governments spend like drunken sailors on leave.

I saw this firsthand in Cali and I knew it was happening. We came out of the recession of the early 90’s and during the booms, state and local spending and contracts went crazy. I knew the booms (tech then housing) would not last and COULD NOT BELIEVE the local and state governments were acting like booms last forever.

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Comment by Montana
2012-08-15 09:41:51

I think they know that and just want to squeeze in as many goodies as possible in good times, and then they just shrug their shoulders later - “nobody could see it coming.”

 
 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 10:39:08

“The tax breaks draw in business which draws in jobs and other tax revenue.”

It draws in jobs, but never a significant amount. The “other tax revenue” is a fairy tale and usually code for “sifting the burden to the individual taxpayer.”

Ex: XYZ corp is given $20 million in tax breaks over X years (most deals I’ve seen are no longer than 10 years) with promise to employee 1000 people. But… those 1000 people only make $12hr. Those wages are not going to support ANY property taxes because $12hr cannot afford houses. Multiply 1000 by your local 1500sqft property tax. Per year. Gone.

Local sales tax? Too variable, but $12hr employees are not big spenders. Wal Mart and Applebees market.

What other local taxes are there? This also varies from city to city.

So not only does the company not pay $20 million, but there is also 1000 property tax bills not going to be paid and retail sales tax isn’t going to make up the shortfall either. Also, 1000 people isn’t enough to justify expansion of, or addition to, many retail businesses.

Now multiply that by at least 2 companies in the municipality.

Uh oh…

Is this “assuming” $12hr wages? There is no need to assume. It has been documented over and over.

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Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 10:49:13

Many of these sites are already not generating tax revenue. Giving tax breaks ensures there will be some tax revenue. I’ve witnessed county government gone wild in beautiful Palm Beach County. Budget shortfalls are not because of tax breaks designed to attract business.

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 10:54:08

I’m certainly not saying that many local gov. were not irresponsible. They absolutely were. Criminally.

But million dollar tax breaks didn’t help either. Tax breaks that could not be offset by $12hr jobs.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-08-15 09:00:51

No. They don’t. they have a “contract”.
ask Oxide.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 10:06:31

But contracts are nullified in BKs, right?

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 14:20:13

Not sure where I come into this.
But why is one contract any less valid than another?
Isn’t there a special chapter for muni BK?

Comment by CharlieTango
2012-08-15 15:05:09

Municipal BK is Chapter 9.

In bankruptcy one “class” of creditor may have more rights than another.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:02:44

What did Ayn Rand teach Paul Ryan about monetary policy?
Posted by Brad Plumer on August 13, 2012 at 11:53 am

In 2005, Paul Ryan explained that he often looks to Ayn Rand’s novel “Atlas Shrugged” as inspiration for his views on monetary policy. “I always go back to, you know, Francisco d’Anconia’s speech, at Bill Taggart’s wedding, on money when I think about monetary policy,” he said in a speech to the Atlas Society. So what are Ryan’s views on this front? And what do they have to do with Ayn Rand?

Over the past few years, economists and policymakers have been debating whether the Federal Reserve should do more to bolster the economy and bring down the still-high U.S. unemployment rate. True, the central bank has already cut interest rates — its traditional tool for stimulus — as far as possible. But the Fed has shifted to a number of novel tactics, such as quantitative easing, to try to bring down real rates even further and inject more money into the economy.

Paul Ryan … comes at monetary policy from a somewhat non-mainstream perspective. Like many other Republicans, he has repeatedly criticized Ben Bernanke’s efforts to stimulate the economy. But he has also gone further, arguing that the Federal Reserve shouldn’t be focused on reducing unemployment, period. And he has argued repeatedly for a “sound money” policy that has left some economists scratching their heads.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 06:43:22

Oh. My. God.

 
Comment by Montana
2012-08-15 08:30:16

Frightening!

 
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-08-15 09:08:08

I think that’s a reasonable position. The ORIGINAL mandate of the Federal Reserve was to provide a SOUND and Stable money supply. Prevent inflations and depressions.
Later, the Congress decided it could use the FED to promote employment and gave the FED a dual mandate.
Save the dollar and get people employed.
You can’t print money to provide “employment” and keep a stable dollar.
No man can serve two masters.
Don’t like it? too bad.
That’s the way things are.

 
Comment by 2banana
2012-08-15 13:48:47

This is the CORRECT policy.

Instead we have the obama way - high unemployment AND a crushing of our monetary system…

But he has also gone further, arguing that the Federal Reserve shouldn’t be focused on reducing unemployment, period. And he has argued repeatedly for a “sound money” policy that has left some economists scratching their heads.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 14:28:30

the obama way - high unemployment AND a crushing of our monetary system…

It’s not Obama’s fault. Obama did not implement trickle-down/supply-side policies the past 32 years. We gave away the farm to the rich way before Obama.

Comment by 2banana
2012-08-15 14:39:52

4 years in office…

super majority in the house…

filibuster senate…

It’s not Obama’s fault.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 14:52:51

It’s not Obama’s fault.

It is not Obama’s fault. Think big and beyond your Obama fixation. USA’s economy has a STRUCTURAL problem. The structural problem has eliminated millions of good jobs. The structural problem was caused by 32 years of “all-for-the-rich” public policies. Obama did not institute any important supply-side policies that caused this structural problem.

 
Comment by Pete
2012-08-15 16:29:05

” Obama did not institute any important supply-side policies that caused this structural problem.”

Yes, but we elected him to fix that immediately.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 17:38:08

Obama did not institute any important supply-side policies that caused this structural problem.”

Yes, but we elected him to fix that immediately.

Fix immediately? That is politically impossible. The GOP would not even let the tax cuts on just the rich expire.

 
Comment by Pete
2012-08-15 17:47:47

Sorry, I should have indicated my sarcasm :-)

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 17:53:52

Sorry, I should have indicated my sarcasm :-)

Well it was great sarcasm because I am seeing posts that out of touch with reality all over the internet. (But they’re serious!) lol

 
 
 
 
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-08-15 22:22:08

“the Federal Reserve shouldn’t be focused on reducing unemployment, period. And he has argued repeatedly for a “sound money” policy”

Sounds good to me.

How is that QE and ZIRP working out for you savers out there? How about those of you fighting the howmuchamonth FHA buyers?

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:05:40

Economists to Romney campaign: That’s not what our research saysPosted by Ezra Klein on August 8, 2012 at 11:58 am

On Tuesday, the Romney campaign responded to the fire it’s taking from economic analysts by unleashing some artillery of their own. They released a paper by four decorated economists associated with the campaign — Glenn Hubbard, Greg Mankiw, John Taylor, and Kevin Hassett — that tried to lend some empirical backing to “The Romney Program for Economic Recovery, Growth, and Jobs.”

Hubbard, Mankiw, Taylor and Hassett make three main points: The first is that this recovery has been terribly slow, even by the standards of post-financial crisis recoveries. The second is that the Obama administration made a grievous error by relying on stimulus. And the third is that Romney’s tax and economic plans would usher in an era of rapid growth that would both be good for the country and provide the boost to revenues and employment necessary to make their numbers work out.

Each of these sections include supporting documents from independent economists. And so I contacted some of the named economists to ask what they thought of the Romney campaign’s interpretation of their research. In every case, they responded with a polite version of Marshall McLuhan’s famous riposte. The Romney campaign, they said, knows little of their work. Or of their policy proposals.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 06:46:26

Rot roh. :lol:

BTW, it was 6 years to the bottom of the S&L disaster.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:17:30

Starting when?

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 10:59:43

Creation of the Resolution Trust Corporation in 1989 is as good a time as any. It certainly marks official recognition of the disaster.

For a frightening read of the similarities of this to the recent mess: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savings_and_loan_crisis

Scary, SCARY similarities. We all got fooked twice in 20 years.

Dang we is smart!

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 13:58:12

At what point do you expect a similar “Resolution” corporation to be established for the current bust?

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-15 15:33:22

Three years ago.

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 22:51:41

Nice, Carl.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-08-15 09:14:35

Yes, I am sure they a “brilliant” like Paul Krugman who has a Nobel Prize in economics and is infinitely stupid.
For every ‘economist’ the media trots out to support the position they would like to take, i can find another who says its just not so.
Myron-Scholes guys got a NOBEL prize, too for their work in derivatives and worked to bring about the collapse of their own firm, using all those wonderful equations to play the market. It led to a market meltdown in 1998.
Economists are a lot like evolutionists. Many still point to Stanley Miller’s experiment with ammonia and methane in a zero oxygen tank to form amino acids and believe it is “proof” of natural processes producing “life”.
Though completely discredited as a model, now, there are still many “believers”.
Some ideologies just don’t die, regardless of the evidence.

Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-15 14:22:19

I was reading the transcript from a CNBC interview with Buffett, Simpson, and Bowles yesterday, and one comment they made about Krugman was that he would only get worried about the level of government spending when it exceeded 50% of GDP.

Buffett, Simpson and Bowles all pretty much said that was crazy, and that we could make it all work at 21% (the Simpson/Bowles target).

Comment by polly
2012-08-15 19:49:48

Pretty safe to make that kind of comment while Krugman is on vacation.

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Comment by SDGreg
2012-08-15 09:21:19

Bruce Bartlett offered a scathing rebuttal:

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/blaming-obama-for-george-w-bushs-policies/

“Because of the large deficits Mr. Bush bequeathed Mr. Obama – on Jan. 8, 2009, the C.B.O. projected a deficit for the year of $1.3 trillion that didn’t include any Obama policies – Congress was deeply reluctant to enact a stimulus larger than $787 billion, even though President Obama’s economic advisers thought that one at least twice as large was necessary to turn the economy around. The opposition of every Republican to the 2009 stimulus was a major factor in its inadequate size.”

“By way of analogy, suppose you go to your doctor with an illness. He correctly diagnoses it and prescribes the right medicine, but for some reason you are given a dosage only half as large as required. The medicine was enough to improve your condition, but not enough to cure you. You remain sick although you feel better and will remain so until you finally get a full dosage of the proper medicine or your body is able to cure itself, which might take years.”

“The Republican economists nevertheless blame the medicine itself for the failure of the economy to respond to President Obama’s prescription. But it was Republican policies during the Bush administration that brought on the sickness and Republicans in Congress who have denied the economy an adequate dosage of the cure. Now they want to implicitly blame President Obama for causing the recession and the failure of stimulus to fix the problem, asserting that fiscal stimulus is per se ineffective. There is a word for this: chutzpah.”

Comment by Steve J
2012-08-15 12:06:53

Unfortunately, no matter how big the stimulus, it still would have been wasted and end up in the pockets of cronies.

Comment by polly
2012-08-15 14:27:09

Most of the stimulus was tax cuts.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:11:43

Bloomberg News
Foreclosure Filings Increase in 60% of Large U.S. Cities
By Dan Levy on July 26, 2012

Foreclosure filings rose in almost 60 percent of large U.S. cities in the first half of 2012, indicating many areas will have more distressed homes on the market later this year, RealtyTrac Inc. reported.

More than 1 million homes in metropolitan areas with populations of at least 200,000 received notices of default, auction or repossession, up 1.5 percent from the last six months of 2011, the Irvine, California-based data provider said today in a statement. Among the 20 largest markets, Tampa, Florida; Philadelphia; Chicago and New York City had the biggest percentage increases in filings.

The gain in foreclosure actions followed a probe into abusive lender practices that delayed bank seizures nationwide. More repossessions will buoy deals “in many local markets where a shortage of aggressively priced inventory has been holding up sales,” RealtyTrac Chief Executive Officer Brandon Moore said in the statement.

Comment by Housing Is A Massive Loss
2012-08-15 10:05:47

Foreclosures UP UP UP!

Housing priced down down down.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 13:52:42

How about you just give us the “all clear” when it’s safe to buy a house again?

 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:17:36

If Megabank, Inc were busted up into non-systemically risky pieces, it would be far easier for law enforcement to get said polices to stop littering America with trashy foreclosure fallout.

At their current size, Megabank, Inc is too big to regulate.

Trashy Foreclosure Fallout Lands on Bank of America’s Doorstep
By Gene Cubbison | Tuesday, Aug 7, 2012 | Updated 10:05 PM PDT

[Dave Lagstein from the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment talks to NBC 7 reporter Gene Cubbison about the dangers of foreclosed properties.]

Community activists on Tuesday took a new approach to dealing with some of the fallout of the foreclosure crisis in San Diego.

They staged a street-theater, media event to embarrass a major bank, and promote an ordinance requiring lenders to maintain properties they repossess.

Over the last five years, some 57,000 homes have undergone foreclosure in the city of San Diego.

All too many are winding up in wrack and ruin — festering not only as eyesores, but magnets for crime and drags on property values.

On Southlook Avenue in Mountain View Tuesday afternoon, neighbors of a home under foreclosure by Bank of America got help from a coalition of grass-roots community groups in pushing back.

“This house is an example of what’s being done to the community as a result of the foreclosure crisis,” said Dave Lagstein, local organizer for the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment, addressing a phalanx of news cameras outside a back yard littered with debris ranging from couches and old TV sets to clothing and all manner of household items.

But there are many others homes like this all around San Diego,” Lagstein continued, “and we’re here to send a message to Wall Street banks like Bank of America that they need to take responsibility for what they’re doing to our community.”

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 06:49:03

Aren’t there already municipal ordinances requiring property owners to maintain their property due to health and safety risks?

Almost every city has them. Although it seems almost every city doesn’t enforce them.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 07:14:40

Those ordinances exist here in Tucson.

Yours Truly, in her role as a neighborhood activist, takes special pride in reporting vacant properties to code enforcement. Believe-you-me, once the code enforcers get on the case, those properties get cleaned up in a jiffy.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:19:07

“Aren’t there already municipal ordinances requiring property owners to maintain their property due to health and safety risks?”

And San Diego is going to get Bank of America to comply how?

Comment by SDGreg
2012-08-15 09:35:18

“And San Diego is going to get Bank of America to comply how?”

Start seizing bank branches?

http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2011/jun/03/tables-turned-bank-of-america-foreclosure-case/

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:20:13

Opinion - National voices
Wednesday, Aug. 15, 2012
E. Thomas McClanahan: Break up the banks? Why not let the market do it?
By E. THOMAS MCCLANAHAN - The Kansas City Star

Hey, let’s break up the big banks. Yeah! That would show those Wall Street fat cats and solve a lot of problems to boot - especially the risk that taxpayers could be tapped again in a panic under the “too big to fail” doctrine. The banks wouldn’t be too big, right? One reason we had the last crisis was deregulation, namely repeal of the Glass-Steagall law separating commercial and investment banking.

Well, that’s the argument anyway, boiled way, way down. Even Sandy Weill, who built Citigroup into the behemoth it is today, recently jumped on this bandwagon.

I admit the break-up-the-banks idea is attractive on the surface. Years ago, economists Milton Friedman, John Tobin and others pushed a notion called “narrow banking.” Banks that held government-insured deposits would be restricted. They’d operate almost like public utilities. They could make traditional loans, but none of that masters-of-the-universe stuff. No collateralized debt obligations, no credit default swaps, etc.

The rest of the financial world would be largely free to whoop it up, with funding sources limited to high-wealth investors who would penalize reckless brokerages by quickly yanking their money. Everyone would know that no government guys or gals would ride to the rescue.

Former Kansas City Fed President Tom Hoenig, now a director at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., has a proposal generally along these lines. But it’s not clear this idea would eliminate bailout risk, and “breaking up the banks” may not be possible, at least in the way advocates seem to envision it. Even if Congress was willing to plunge into this issue again - highly unlikely - anything it coughs up would be full of loopholes.

“Technology has melded stuff together so much that the line between commercial and investment banking is not easy to draw,” said Bert Ely, a Alexandria Va.-based banking consultant.

Even if we went to some version of narrow banking, how could we know the lightly regulated part of the financial universe won’t still pose a threat? After all, the entities that set off the panic, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, had no commercial deposits. The repeal of Glass-Steagall, Ely observed, was “totally irrelevant to the too-big-to-fail issue.”

Which takes us to the real question: whether a collapsing brokerage’s counterparties would be forced to eat losses, and whether that prospect would trigger the kind of freeze-up we saw in 2008, when banks ceased doing business with each other, paychecks were on the verge of bouncing and suppliers couldn’t be paid. We were truly on the edge of a precipice.

As former Fed chairman Paul Volcker has said, nobody wants to be the one who triggers a financial collapse. In the face of a potential catastrophe, Treasury and the Fed would probably start bailing.

Maybe one solution is simpler than the debate over bank breakups suggests. The financial author William Cohan argues that to change bankers’ behavior, change how they’re rewarded.

Comment by polly
2012-08-15 06:31:27

““Technology has melded stuff together so much that the line between commercial and investment banking is not easy to draw,” said Bert Ely, a Alexandria Va.-based banking consultant.”

Garbage. Investment banking puts together people with a need for money with money that isn’t on deposit in the bank - bond holders, purchasers of newly issued stock, etc. Commercial banking is making loans that require money on deposit at the bank as “reserves.”

When the bank makes commercial loans and then sells them to investment banks to turn into bonds, the normal conservatism that should go with commercial banking can get thrown out the window, but that doesn’t turn it into investment banking. It just makes the lenders very bad commercial bankers who aren’t contemplating a world when they might have to keep their loans.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 06:58:25

Or to be more precise, the Commodities Modernization Act and repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act “melded stuff together so much that the line between commercial and investment banking is not easy to draw” on purpose.

To paraphrase a famous quote form here “Bankers are liars.”

Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 08:48:09

When all you do is move money for profit you get greedy. When you get greedy honesty is not on the top of your priority list.

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-15 23:39:11

….”change how they’re are rewarded .”

This guy has got to be kidding .I use to lecture that the problem was the meshing of Banks with Investment firms and Hedge funds and Insurance Companies .
It just made it so the Commercial Banks could operated just like these investment entities and Insurance Companies .It was good for Investment Firms because they could get their hands on the money that was generated by real estate loans ,so they could use it for leverage ,additional casino games ,and creating a bubble based on faulty lending .

In other words, there really wasn’t enough money for investment in Wall Street Investment firms to the degree they wanted it . Commerial Banks were limited in their profit margins because of the leverage rules for Commercial Banks .

To make Investment firms and Commerical Banks have no dividing line was the mistake . In other words ,it should of never been allowed that the real estate loan be leveraged higher than the commerical banks were allowed to do it ,or use those loans for additional casino bets . The concept of securities isn’t as bad as the concept of risky leverage ,credit default swaps ,and other kind of bets in which they used real estate loans as the underlying assets to make those leverage bets . Eventually the Ponzi scheme had to continue and the false rise of real estate had to take place by faulty lending to keep it going . This is creating money without it being backed by value or proper reserves .They would misrate these loans and past them on to the stupid investor and than bet on them crashing .

While it was true that the commissions fueled the beast of this
Ponzi scheme and lack of proper reserves combined with faulty lending and absurd leverage ,it was more the fact that it wasn’t proper lending or investment ,but a money creation scheme .Going Global with this Ponzi scheme also took place .

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:22:44

Barclays Trading 93% Cheap to Peers Fuels Breakup Talk: Real M&A
Aaron Kirchfeld
Bloomberg
Updated 12:11 p.m., Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) — Barclays Plc, the U.K. bank fined a record amount for rigging global interest rates, is languishing at a cheaper valuation than 93 percent of its global competitors, fueling a debate about breaking up Britain’s second-biggest lender.

The shares trade at a 59 percent discount to book value, implying investors don’t agree that the bank’s holdings are worth as much as the London-based company says. That’s a lower price-to-book ratio than 141 financial firms listed in the 152- company Bloomberg World Banks Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While Liberum Capital Ltd. says one hurdle to a breakup may be the investment bank’s ability to fund itself, Canaccord Financial Inc. says splitting up Barclays may almost double its market value of 22 billion pounds ($35 billion).

David Walker, the former Bank of England executive director named chairman of Barclays last week, is joining the company as lawmakers reignite calls to separate consumer and investment banking operations after the resignation of its top three leaders. Barclays has dropped 29 percent from this year’s stock peak in March as the firm was fined 290 million pounds for manipulating the benchmark London interbank offered rate.

“The Libor scandal has fueled the debate about breaking up banks,” John Smith, a Manchester, England-based senior fund manager at Brown Shipley & Co., which manages more than 2 billion pounds including Barclays shares, said in a telephone interview. “A breakup would boost the value of Barclays. The retail business is being weighed down by concerns about the investment bank. Still, implementing the split is easier said than done.”

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:25:57

What the Habsburg Empire can tell us about breaking up the euro zone
Posted by Brad Plumer on August 13, 2012 at 3:49 pm

For the past week, much of Germany has gone on vacation—including Chancellor Angela Merkel—which means that the crisis in the euro zone has been put on temporary hold until Wednesday. Oh, sure, Spain is still in trouble and the continent is mired in recession and it’s not clear whether European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi’s plan to hold the euro zone together will even work. But, for the time being, the panicky headlines have gone into remission.

So, we’ll just have to occupy ourselves with this dire policy brief (pdf) from Anders Åslund of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Like many analysts, Åslund believes that a dissolution of Europe’s currency union would be utterly disastrous. But he thinks that breaking up the euro would be far more disastrous than most economists assume. To explain, he takes a short jaunt through history.

His paper starts by noting that there have been plenty of currency unions in Europe over the past century. Czechoslovakia was technically a currency union that broke up (relatively painlessly, it turned out). But the three examples most relevant to the euro crisis, Åslund argues, are the breakup of the Habsburg Empire in Austria-Hungary in 1918, the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, and the breakup of Yugoslavia. All of those were total economic fiascos:

All three ended in major disasters, each with hyperinflation in several countries. In the Habsburg Empire, Austria and Hungary faced hyperinflation. Yugoslavia experienced hyperinflation twice. In the former Soviet Union, 10 out of 15 republics had hyperinflation.

The combined output falls were horrendous, though poorly documented because of the chaos. Officially, the average output fall in the former Soviet Union was 52 percent, and in the Baltics it amounted to 42 percent. According to the World Bank, in 2010, 5 out of 12 post-Soviet countries—Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—had still not reached their 1990 GDP per capita levels in purchasing power parities. Similarly, out of seven Yugoslav successor states, at least Serbia and Montenegro, and probably Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina, had not exceeded their 1990 GDP per capita levels in purchasing power parities two decades later. Arguably, Austria and Hungary did not recover from their hyperinflations in the early 1920s until the mid-1950s.

Many economists have dismissed these examples as irrelevant, Åslund writes, by arguing that these were all very different situations from the current euro zone. After all, the former Yugoslavia was wracked by war. The post-Soviet economies were going through wrenching changes in the transition away from communism. Surely no one thinks Germany would have the same problems as post-Soviet Russia, right?

Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 10:31:21

Isn’t half of Germany actually post Soviet Russia?

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 16:11:39

IIRC, about 1/3 of what is today known as “Germany” was the former DDR, the Democratic German Republic, AKA “East Germany.” As far as I know current Germany has no former USSR territories in it.

Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 16:38:52

Cough! You don’t think east Germany was a territory of Russia after WWII? Do you suppose the Berlin Wall was built by the East Germans because they wanted to be a seperate and free country? Cough!

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:27:26

Currency Exposure: Can You Explain How You Are Prepared For a Euro Breakup to Your CFO?
August 15, 2012 6:10 AM

The Germans are the big motor pulling the Euro train – and they are looking to shed a few cars. Yesterday, Der Spiegel ran a story on this topic. To summarize, this is what is going on in in Europe at the moment:

Banks, investors and companies are bracing themselves for the possibility that the euro will break up — and are thus increasing the likelihood that precisely this will happen.

Whether or not you prefer the economic concept of adaptive expectations to rational expectations, it is still clear that financial actors in Europe (such as banks) are growing increasingly wary of lending across borders. According to Der Spiegel, “Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) insists that HypoVereinsbank keeps its money in Germany. When the parent bank, Unicredit in Milan, asks for an excessive amount of money to be transferred from the German subsidiary to Italy, BaFin intervenes.”

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:29:59

Romney-Ryan See Fed QE as Inflation Risk Amid Subdued Prices
Jeff Kearns and Joshua Zumbrun
Bloomberg
Updated 11:12 a.m., Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) — Representative Paul Ryan, writing less than a month after the Federal Reserve announced a new round of bond-buying in 2010, said the move to purchase another $600 billion in securities risked stoking inflation and pushing down the dollar.

Since that prediction by Ryan, who has been chosen by presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney to be his running mate, the dollar has risen against major currencies and inflation has stayed below the Fed’s goal of 2 percent.

While off target so far, the warning by Ryan parallels Romney’s criticism of the unprecedented Fed program known as quantitative easing to spur growth by purchasing a total of $2.3 trillion in securities. Romney and Ryan oppose the policy even as Chairman Ben S. Bernanke says he stands ready to provide more accommodation if necessary to achieve a steady decline in the 8.3 percent U.S. unemployment rate.

A Fed led by a Romney-Ryan administration appointee “would be less inclined to frequently fiddle with the knobs” of economic policy, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist for Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. “There would be a strong sense in the markets that a different strategy is probably forthcoming,” with higher odds the Fed would raise interest rates and a lower probability it would buy more bonds.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:31:12

How Romney and Ryan Would Protect Too-Big-To-Fail Banks
By Pat Garofalo on Aug 13, 2012 at 11:05 am

On the campaign trail, Mitt Romney has consistently attacked the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law, which aimed to reform financial regulation in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Both Romney and his economic advisers say that they would repeal the law entirely, and they have given no indication of what they would do to upgrade a regulatory framework that so obviously failed.

But Romney’s running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), has written a budget — approved by House Republicans — that, while it doesn’t repeal the law entirely, removes one of its most important aspects, known as resolution authority. This power, which the government did not have in 2008, would allow the unwinding of failing financial firms without resorting to ad hoc bailouts. Under the process, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp would dismantle collapsing, yet too-big-to-fail, banks, and any loss to the taxpayer would be recouped from the sale of the failed bank’s assets.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 07:04:43

That was supposed to be the plan this last time as well.

How’d that work out?

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 08:55:12

The government should have no authority to shut down a private entity and sell its assets. It’s absurd.

In the same breath, the government should have no responsibility to that organization for any type of bailout.

If you’re going to legislate, why not go after the fundamental problems of the system in the first place? Dodd-Frank didn’t even scratch the surface of that.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 11:08:08

The Constitution expressly gives the government unlimited rights to regulate commerce and money.

They do indeed “have the right”.

Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 11:18:04

Funny that I didn’t mention anything about the right to. I said they should have no authority to.

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Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-08-15 09:20:13

All you need to know is Barney Frank sponsored the Bill. You don’t need to even read it, like the “healthcare” bill that nobody read, or was even in final form till the votes hit the floor, and was still being ‘revised’ with more conditions and pork..
I wouldn’t support ANYTHING that blowhard would try to shove up the backside of America.

Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 09:36:21

The healthcare bill no matter what side of the debate you’re on shows how government has lost its way. No bill should EVER be voted on without being displayed to the public and being READ by anyone voting for or against it.

 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:33:05

Paul Ryan’s Unfortunate Bank Stock Trades
Published: Tuesday, 14 Aug 2012 | 11:30 AM ET
John Carney
Senior Editor, CNBC.com

Here’s another way Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is just like a lot of his fellow Americans: he trades way too much. (Here’s Jim Cramer’s take on Romney-Ryan.)

UC Berkeley economist Brad Delong has put up a timeline of Ryan’s 2008 trades in bank stocks. This has been getting attention from unfounded accusations that Ryan may have used information he learned by virtue of his position in Congress to inform his trades. (Slate columnist Matt Yglesias linked to and then retracted a post accusing Ryan of insider trading.)

The most striking thing is that Ryan trades so often. He bought and sold bank stocks on 14 different days in 2008, sometimes selling a stock one month only to buy it back the next. (See: Who Is Paul Ryan, and What Does He Stand For?)

If Ryan had seemed to be timing the market particularly well, it then might be fair to suspect that he was employing some kind of edge to derive abnormal returns. But as far as I can tell, that doesn’t seem to be the case at all. In fact, he seems pretty poor at market-timing.

Let’s roll the tape.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 07:09:43

He must not be doing TOO bad. He’s not hurting with his net worth averaging around $5 MILLION and a base salary of at least $175,000 per year.

Comment by MiddleCoaster
2012-08-15 08:46:22

Ryan’s net worth is largely due to his wife’s inheritance from her mother, and wife’s earning being a lobbyist.

Comment by Steve J
2012-08-15 09:02:33

The Ryan family made $$$$ off of government contracts for 100 years.

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Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 11:09:44

Just sayin’. Joe 6 Pack he ain’t.

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
2012-08-15 09:47:06

“If Ryan had seemed to be timing the market particularly well, it then might be fair to suspect that he was employing some kind of edge to derive abnormal returns. But as far as I can tell, that doesn’t seem to be the case at all. In fact, he seems pretty poor at market-timing.”

So he loses, even with inside information? He must not be very bright.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 11:11:17

That’s the scary part. :lol:

 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:35:17

JPMorgan’s “whale” problem lures hedge-fund sharks
FACTBOX: Hedge fund managers’ top buys, ups and cuts
Tue, Aug 14 2012
JPMorgan Chase & Co’s international headquarters are seen on Park Avenue in New York July 13, 2012. REUTERS/Andrew Burton
By Svea Herbst-Bayliss
BOSTON | Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:00am EDT

(Reuters) - JP Morgan Chase’s (JPM.N) “London whale” problem attracted some hedge-fund sharks in the second quarter.

New regulatory filings show that several big hedge-fund players loaded up on JPMorgan even as heavy losses on a soured credit derivative bet made by a trader known as the “London whale” sent the bank’s stock reeling.

It seems as though managers such as Jim Chanos, John Paulson and Jamie Dinan saw the stock’s 22 percent drop in the second quarter as a buying opportunity.

For much of the quarter, the JP Morgan story riveted the financial world after the bank, long acclaimed for navigating crises better than its peers, got tripped up by a bad bet that could cost it at least $6 billion.

Andrew Feldstein’s BlueMountain Capital, which won big by taking the other side of the JPMorgan credit bet, nearly tripled its holdings of the bank’s stock to 233,505 shares, according to a filing Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Similarly, James Chanos, whose Kynikos Associates is traditionally a short player that bets stocks will fall, raised his holdings in the bank to 323,400 shares from 91,6000 shares.

Hedge fund manager Jamie Dinan, who runs York Capital and whose name sounds eerily like that of JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon, took a stake of 2.8 million shares in addition to having an option to buy another 1 million shares.

And John Paulson, whose major bet on Bank of America contributed to his firm’s embarrassingly large losses last year, placed more chips on the banking sector with a new 4 million- share stake in JPMorgan.

Dinakar Singh’s TPG-Axon Capital Management raised its stake to 3.3 million shares from 3.1 million; John Griffin’s Blue Ridge Capital kept its holdings in the bank at 6.1 million; and Ricky Sandler’s Eminence Capital held firm at 1.9 million shares.

While the sharp drop in price made JPMorgan stock look historically cheap, not everyone was convinced that it was time to buy.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:37:06

Dimon: trading loss the ‘dumbest thing I have ever seen’
Shanny Basar in New York
14 Aug 2012

Last week JP Morgan revealed in its quarterly 10q SEC filing for the second quarter that the bank lost money trading on 29 days in the first six months of this year, compared to 27 days in the whole of 2011. The CIO was responsible for 27 days of the trading losses.

Dimon said: “It was the dumbest thing I have ever seen. It was so complex, so large, so illiquid, so stupid. It didn’t get the rigour that it should have entailed.”

Comment by Neuromance
2012-08-15 08:43:24

Had it made money, Dimon would have taken credit for it.

“Success has many fathers. Failure is an orphan.” — proverb

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:41:17

EDITORIAL
Easy money: Government principal reductions a bad idea
Posted: Aug. 13, 2012 | 1:59 a.m.

Rejecting the entreaties of the Obama administration, the independent federal agency that administers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said Tuesday it will not let mortgage companies offer debt forgiveness to borrowers.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency is charged by Congress with minimizing the cost of bailing out Fannie and Freddie, which were seized by the government in 2008 to preserve their role as the primary source of financing for new mortgage loans.

The FHFA spent months studying to what extent some half-million homeowners could benefit from such a program - of whom a good number are here in Nevada, arguably the state worst hit by the housing crash. The agency acknowledged many aid recipients would be more likely to continue making mortgage payments if their debts were partially forgiven.

But the agency’s acting director, Edward J. DeMarco, said Tuesday the benefits most likely would be too small to offset potential costs, including the risk that some borrowers would stop making payments in pursuit of a better deal. Offering debt forgiveness “would not make a meaningful improvement in reducing foreclosures in a cost-effective way for taxpayers,” Mr. DeMarco ruled.

The decision infuriated congressional Democrats. But it’s the correct call.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:45:01

Editorial
Front Page - Monday, August 13, 2012
Home Sweet Home
FHFA rejects national principal reduction program
Ethan C. Nobles

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) made news at the end of July when it rejected a program promoted by President Barack Obama’s administration to help out some homeowners by reducing the amount they owe on their homes.

Before getting into all of that, it’s important to point out what the FHFA is, what principal reduction is and why the Obama administration is lobbying for it. The FHFA was created in 2008 to oversee the operations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – the two government sponsored entities that back around 60 percent of all mortgages in the nation.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are faced with a problem – about 4.6 million of homeowners with mortgages backed by those enterprises are underwater. In other words, they owe more than their homes are worth. The Obama administration has suggested principal reduction as a way to make life easier for those homeowners.

The administration’s proposal is simple enough. Let’s say someone owes $200,000 on a home that’s worth $150,000. If that person is eligible for the proposed program, then the principal owed on the home would be reduced to $150,000 – what the house is actually worth.

The number of home owners that could benefit under a principal reduction program varies according to which federal agency is crunching the numbers – estimates range from around 74,000 eligible borrowers to 1.4 million. Perhaps the most common estimate tossed around is 500,000 eligible borrowers.

So, why did the FHFA refuse to go along with the proposal? For one thing, the FHFA estimates is worried about how much the program might cost taxpayers. The Obama administration says the reduced number of foreclosures could save taxpayers money, while the FHFA isn’t convinced.

For another, 71 percent of underwater borrowers with mortgages backed by Fannie or Freddie are located in 10 states. Those states contain 39 percent of the nation’s population.

Which states do contain the most underwater borrowers with mortgages backed by Fannie or Freddie? According to the FHFA, those are Florida (16 percent of underwater borrowers), California (13 percent), Michigan (8 percent), Illinois (8 percent), Georgia (7 percent), Arizona (6 percent), Ohio (4 percent), Nevada (3 percent), Washington (2 percent) and Minnesota (2 percent).

You’ll notice that Arkansas is not in the top 10.

What the FHFA has done, then, is reject a proposal that could reduce the principal owed by a few borrowers and spread the burden among all taxpayers. One can only guess how taxpayers in Arkansas and other states with comparatively few underwater borrowers would react to footing the bill for principal reductions in Florida, California and other states where home values have taken a dive due to risky lending practices and other factors.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:50:24

I’m gonna buy my daughter a copy of “Atlas Shrugged” as a going-away present to put on her college book shelf.

Is Paul Ryan for or against Ayn Rand?
By Gary Weiss, Special to CNN
updated 1:17 PM EDT, Tue August 14, 2012

Editor’s note: Gary Weiss’s most recent book is “Ayn Rand Nation: The Hidden Struggle for America’s Soul,” published by St. Martin’s Press.

(CNN) — People don’t generally care what politicians read. But Rep. Paul Ryan is different. His fascination with the Russian-born novelist Ayn Rand could spell trouble for the GOP’s new vice-presidential candidate. It could put him at odds with the Christian right and the Roman Catholic Church.

It all depends how much you believe that he is in the thrall of Ayn Rand.

Rand (1905-1982) is controversial because of the extremism of her views. In researching my recent book, I found that Rand’s influence on the Republican Party, which dates back as far as her endorsement of Wendell Willkie in 1940, has been sharply growing, largely due to her vise-like hold on the imagination of the tea party and people like Ryan.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 07:19:23

Why?

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:23:15

It’s clearly one of the most influential books of the 20th century.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:24:15

I also handed her Machiavelli’s The Prince to read a few years back. I should have waited until she moved away to do that…

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Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-15 09:22:58

Give her something by Nietzsche (Beyond Good and Evil?) so she can see where Rand cribbed much of her philosophy, and how she got it wrong.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 23:07:58

“Beyond Good and Evil?”

I’d be afraid to give her my copy of THAT book. Besides, it is one of the few non-work-related books I ever read from time to time…

 
 
 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 08:02:28

Rand’s influence has been sharply growing, largely due to her vise-like hold on the (Stunted) imagination of people like Ryan.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 08:14:46

Ryan is a self proclaimed Catholic. Yet Ms. Rand’s writings are a contradiction of Catholic teaching on social justice. How he reconciles the two is beyond me.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-16 00:30:45

It does seem like the Republician Party has a Rand type hype about it these days .

 
 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 08:19:43

The problem with Ayn Rand is that she ignores macroeconomics.

Her basic objectivism was in part, a rejection of “silly” things like relativity. Time and distance are relative? How silly, and obviously non-objective. Stuff can not be made of non-stuff.

In Atlas Shrugged she openly mocks “academics” for believing such stupid things as relativity.

Who cares that 50 years of data has proven relativity correct. It doesn’t feel “truthy” and therefore is wrong.

Well, her economic philosophy is equally as wrapped in glorious rejection of data in the name of what “feels” truthy.

She rejects that government economic policy has ANY role in creating conditions where some become wealthy. This glorious embracing of the ignorant belief that government policy plays no role in creating conditions that allowed the rich to get rich in the first place…..

The belief, “I made my money despite the government not because of government.”

Hey you ignorant (dead) be-atch. There would not have been a thing called money, for you to have earned, if not for government.

Wake up Tea Party. Macro-economics is a real thing. No man (person) is an island unto themselves.

Ryan was an ignorant be-atch that embraced the concept of rejecting data in favor of what “felt” truthy. No wonder she is the poster child for the Tea Party, which equally, gloriously embraces ignorance.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 08:28:38

+1

Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-16 00:18:58

In light of Allen Greenspan being a Ayn Rand fan ( he even hung around with her for a period of time ) ,the fact that
Ryan might be a fan of Rands faulty views is scary .

Ayn Rand had no grasp on how the collective floats all boats
in a viable economic system . Because of her background of
coming from Commie Russia to Capitalism America she was never able to see the drawbacks to pure capitalism without regulation ,and she thought that the working class were a bunch of parasites on the 1% or the 15 %.

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Comment by polly
2012-08-15 08:46:09

I wonder if Colbert’s writing staff has any plans to play around with this. He already talks about truthiness, but I don’t recall him ever taking on Ayn Rand.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2012-08-15 08:49:21

Her basic objectivism was in part, a rejection of “silly” things like relativity. Time and distance are relative? How silly, and obviously non-objective. Stuff can not be made of non-stuff.

Science asks us to believe impossibly fantastical things, based on observation, experimentation and logical deduction.

Religion asks us to believe impossibly fantastical things based on pronouncements from authority figures and interpretations of books of unknown provenance.

 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 09:04:04

what “felt” truthy.

Otherwise known as “common sense,” at least as in its usage in political rhetoric.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-15 09:30:59

rejecting data in favor of what “felt” truthy.

She refused to believe smoking caused lung cancer, was a heavy smoker, and developed lung cancer, at which point she went on Medicare and Social Security.

 
 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 10:19:00

If she’s going off to college, she’s too old for Rand. Give her a grown-up book instead.

Comment by Steve J
2012-08-15 12:10:15

“Hunger Games” would give her a head start.

 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:53:00

Love him or not, Paul Ryan has added some spice to the presidential race.

Bill in LA will appreciate the post below…

Paul Ryan’s Ayn Rand Reader: Lesson One
By David Weigel
Posted Monday, Aug. 13, 2012, at 9:04 AM ET

The Fountainhead, by Ayn Rand — the high priestess of free-market capitalism and unfettered individualism.
Photo by MANAN VATSYAYANA/AFP/GettyImages

Jane Mayer beat everybody to the punch this weekend with a taut explainer of Paul Ryan’s once-loud, now-denied admiration for Ayn Rand. Recently, she wrote, “Ryan distanced himself from Rand, whose atheism is something of a philosophical wedge issue on the right, dividing religious conservatives from free-market libertarians.” And that has been a strange spectacle. Who denies all of a writer’s works because some of those works are girded by atheism? Up to 2011 or so, Ryan never had a problem with this. Now, he can no more denounce Rand than he can denounce his own white grandmother.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 07:15:09

Who denies all of a writer’s works because some of those works are girded by atheism?

A politician who panders to Protestant Fundies?

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:25:26

Yep. No flavor of political correctness is more extreme than that of a Republican fundie…

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:22:15

How does the Republican base feel about a VP nominee whose views were shaped in part by an atheist political philosopher’s writings?

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 08:12:59

One of the great paradoxes of Protestant Fundamentalism is that while they don’t believe in biological Darwinism that are all for Social Darwinism. Funny, I don’t recall reading about Jesus saying “Blessed are the economically successful for theirs is …”

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 08:34:37

And in the Episcopal Church, I heard a lot from the Book of Matthew. Especially the part where Jesus reminded people that what was done to the least unto them was also done unto Him.

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 09:09:23

Fundies believe they are exempt from the judgement day scenario. They believe they can kick the “least of them” in the nutz and will still be welcomed into the kingdom.

 
 
Comment by polly
2012-08-15 08:49:31

That was John Calvin, I believe. And it isn’t so much blessing the economically successful as that the people who had been chosen to receive grace also got success in all the other stuff they did too. Kind of like winning the karma lottery.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 23:10:38

Mormons,Christian Scientists and Episcopalians seem to be Calvin’s latter-day heirs.

 
 
 
Comment by Steve J
2012-08-15 09:08:53


How does the Republican base feel about a VP nominee whose views were shaped in part by an atheist political philosopher’s writings?

That pretty much describes Joseph Smith too.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 23:11:46

Wait - whoa, whoa, whoa…what does Joseph Smith have to do with Ayn Rand and atheism?

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 05:58:41

Is QE hope the only factor buoying stock markets anymore?

The situation brings to mind the ending of Poe’s The Cask of Amontillado, when Fortunato can’t quite believe his friend has abandoned him in the catacombs.

Europe Markets Archives
Aug. 15, 2012, 7:40 a.m. EDT
Europe stocks off as easing expectations wane
By Sara Sjolin, MarketWatch

LONDON (MarketWatch) — The recent rally in European equities lost steam on Wednesday, as stock markets tracked losses on Wall Street and in Asia on waning expectations of further central-bank action to boost the global economy.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 0.1% to 270.15. On Tuesday, the index closed at its highest level since March 19 on continued hopes for additional policy easing, marking a sixth advance within the past eight trading sessions. Better-than-expected growth data from Germany also fueled investor confidence.

“It’s a reflection that our hopes and expectations of further quantitative or monetary easing were too high,” said Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank. “We came from a position earlier in the summer where we were oversold and now we’re overbought. That calls for a correction back to normality.”

“The calender doesn’t show any upcoming policy decisions until the ECB’s meeting on September 6. The coming weeks are weak in terms of political responses and the hopes of easing are consequently smaller,” he added.

Comment by polly
2012-08-15 08:50:35

Please check the volume. Even the computers are probably on vacation in Europe now.

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 09:29:44

The government continues to create $1.3T a year. Only $600B of that leaks out of the country via international trade imbalance. The other $700B goes to making the rich ever richer. They aren’t putting all of that money into government bonds. Some of it will surely find its way into stocks.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 06:00:03

Aug. 14, 2012, 4:59 p.m. EDT
U.S. stocks lose buoyancy on Greece report
By Wallace Witkowski and Laura Mandaro, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks lost hold of their meager gains Tuesday as markets headed to a close following a report that Greece was looking for an extension to implement austerity programs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 2.71 points, or less than 0.1%, to 13,172.14, after trading as much as 53 points higher earlier in the session. In the final half-hour of trading, the Dow was down as much as 27 points.

The Financial Times reported toward the end of the session Tuesday that Greece is going to seek a two-year extension of its austerity program that would spread cuts out until 2016 and result in a 1.5 percentage-point annual budget deficit reduction rather than 2.5 points.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 06:02:23

Aug. 15, 2012, 4:08 a.m. EDT
Asia stocks fall as stimulus hopes fade
By Sarah Turner and V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Asian stocks traded lower Wednesday, as investors scaled back expectations of central-bank stimulus to support the global economy, with the resource and financial sectors among those declining.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.2%, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.1% and Taiwan’s Taiex shed 0.2%.

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.1% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.3%. South Korean markets were closed for a holiday.

The losses came after hopes for central bank stimulus measures underpinned stock gains in recent weeks.

August’s surge in confidence seems to be more a triumph of policy projection and potential than positive economic data,” said Gary Baker, head of European Equities strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “The risk is now that inaction by policy makers would lead to a negative reaction in global markets.”

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 07:19:32

It seems that central bankers around the world are a wee bit worried about inflation. The question is, will they fold like a lawn chair if the global economy falls into another “recession”, which many believe t be inevitable?

 
 
Comment by Jess from upstate SC
2012-08-15 06:06:21

And back to School we go .There is an almost complete lack of data online on historical Per Student Costs to the taxpayer over the years per student.SC this year is spending a grand total of between 13-16 K per student . The State’s education infrastructure spends a lot of time and effort to confuse the issue ,trying to make it not sound so bad.
I have an old Teacher pay-coupon book from 1928 that shows public school teachers then were paid $90 per month and local principles got $120 per month.(About $1300. and $1800.a month in today’s money in the inflation calculator) .
No, that was not enough $$$ back then , and makes me wonder what the Per student cost was back then. And we would bet they got just as good or better an education back then .

Comment by Northeastener
2012-08-15 06:48:10

You need to ask yourself:
Are student outcomes better or worse with the additional money we’re spending today on public education?

I can tell you for most parochial schools, the amount spend per child is quite a bit less than in public schools, and I would argue that for the majority of students, the outcomes are better.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 07:43:24

My kids also attended parochial school. Here in the Centennial STATE they spend about the same as public schools. We were able to afford it back then because the parish subsidized it heavily (they no longer do).

Even with the parish subsidy, the tuition was out of reach for most parish families, so we ended up with a very Republican situation: the typical student came from the parish’s more well to do families and were subsidized by the less well to do families and their Sunday collection plate offerings. This situation was not unique to our school, and some years ago Archbishop Chaput issued guidelines restricting the parish subsidies. The tuition increased and the school became even more elite.

Now, when your students are from the top 10% of the population, the school will tend to do better than schools that are full of everyone else. We didn’t have any kids from foodstamp families. We didn’t even have a school lunch program.

Furthermore, if you send those elite kids to our local public schools, they do fine. Most of my son’s upper middle class soccer teammates attended public K-12 and they performed just as well as he did in high school (we don’t have a Parochial HS in town) snapping up AP classes left and right and graduating with 4.0 GPAs and high SAT/CT test scores. Most of them wore the yellow “honors” robes at high school graduation.

Catholic Parochial Education has been undergoing a massive transformation the past few decades. Once upon a time it was very affordable (because the teachers were Sisters and Nuns) and it wasn’t unusual for the majority of kids in a parish to attend. The purpose of Parochial Schools back then was Catholic formation, because many public schools were covertly Protestant back then.

Today, Parochial Schools focus more on academics, which is easier as their student bodies are upper crust. Plus, unlike publics they don’t have to offer special ed, sports, ESL, etc.

Comment by Northeastener
2012-08-15 11:47:21

Today, Parochial Schools focus more on academics, which is easier as their student bodies are upper crust. Plus, unlike publics they don’t have to offer special ed, sports, ESL, etc.

You hit the nail on the head. Here’s my take in more detail…
* The parents of private school students tend to care about the outcomes and be more involved than in public schools.
* There are real consequences to behavioral problems, as private schools can kick problem students out.
* Private schools aren’t beholden to Unions, hence private school compensation is often lower than public schools.
* Private schools are not beholden to State or Federal education mandates. To me, this is one of the biggest issues as No Child Left Behind was an abomination. Mandatory aptitude testing as a measure of school and teacher performance creates more problems than it solves.

Ask any College Professor what they think of the incoming Freshman classes, and the biggest complaints are:

Sub-standard Reading and Writing
Sub-standard Math
Lack of Creative Problem Solving

The largest classes in many Universities for incoming Freshman now are Remedial Math and Remedial Writing…

The issue with Honors classes is grade inflation, which is rampant. The problem with AP classes is that most school systems focus on the number of students who took AP classes as a performance metric. The issue is that too few are scoring a satisfactory grade on AP and ACT tests…

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 16:17:24

“Private schools aren’t beholden to Unions, hence private school compensation is often lower than public schools.”

Actually, in our Archdiocese, it was mandated by the Archbishop that they be paid the same as local public school teachers.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 16:20:13

“Private schools are not beholden to State or Federal education mandates. ”

They are in my neck of the woods.

“The issue with Honors classes is grade inflation, which is rampant. The problem with AP classes is that most school systems focus on the number of students who took AP classes as a performance metric. The issue is that too few are scoring a satisfactory grade on AP and ACT tests”

Apparently not in our school district.I have heard of stories of kids in inner city schools taking the AP tests and failing, but in our little burg they do quite well.

 
 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-15 16:42:47

Now, when your students are from the top 10% of the population, the school will tend to do better than schools that are full of everyone else

Find me an under-performing/failing school that is filled with middle-class kids.

They don’t exist.

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Comment by Happy2bHeard
2012-08-15 11:50:46

In most places, public schools are mandated to provide education for any child that lives in their district. For some districts, that means busing a special needs child to a special needs, out of district school where the teacher-student ratio may be 1 to 1, plus an aide. For a severely disabled student, this can mean 100K per year or more.

This mandate pulls the average cost per student up for public schools.

Comment by Northeastener
2012-08-15 14:20:06

There it is as well. Why is it that parents who have disabled children or children with learning disabilities can have the school system absorb the cost of special education? Because the Federal Government mandates it. Do the parents pay any more? No. But the school system has to absorb the cost somehow because they have no choice but to devote limited resources to the special needs.

When I was a child, school psychologists were non-existent. Now, they are the norm within every public school system. I say again, are outcomes better for all with this? No. Are outcomes better for a few special needs students who may have not been diagnosed or ignored by teachers? Yes. At what cost? Where is the cost to the parent? We all absorb the cost in higher taxes. What had traditionally been a private-funded issue has become public through government mandates…

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 14:28:44

Why is it that parents who have disabled children or children with learning disabilities can have the school system absorb the cost of special education?

Well, it MIGHT just be that with a bit of extra time and attention, these kids can grow up to be productive members of society.

Case in point: I just finished listening to Jim Abbott’s audiobook, Imperfect. Recall that Abbott pitched a no-hitter when he played for the Yankees. Guy only has one complete arm.

While he was a child, he spent time in a hospital for disabled children. One day, he saw a very well dressed lady push her child into the hospital, then turn and leave him there. It was as if she was dropping off a sack of garbage.

Abbott’s parents had him when they were both teenagers and not married yet. They thought that after Jim was born, that his less-than-perfect body might be some sort of punishment from God.

But then they realized that Jim was, well, Jim. So, why not just raise him like any old kid and see what happened?

Very early in life, he showed quite an interest in sports. The family lived in a sports town, Flint, Michigan, so there were plenty of opportunities for Jim there.

Oh, and did I mention that one of Jim’s grade school teachers, who was also disabled, took the boy aside one day and exclaimed that he’d figured it out. What was it? Well, it was a method that Jim could use for tying his shoes.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 14:56:08

One more thing: Jim Abbott was a public school kid all the way through. And he spent three years at the home of my beloved Michigan Wolverines before turning pro as a baseball player.

 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-15 16:47:31

The same reason we pay (or not as the case may be) to make sure insane people aren’t roaming the streets and movie theaters with guns.

 
 
 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2012-08-15 11:56:27

Do your parochial schools kick out troublemakers? Having well-behaved children to teach would tend to increase outcomes for all students.

Comment by Northeastener
2012-08-15 14:11:53

Of course. It is rare, as behavior problems tend to get addressed quickly with parental involvement, but private schools determine who they want to teach and who they don’t.

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 16:23:13

Then you are comparing apples and oranges. Of course parochial schools do better. They start with better students. And if you can’t afford parochial there are charter schools out here, which curiously are full of LDS kids.

 
 
 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-08-15 16:41:05

I would argue that for the majority of students, the outcomes are better.

If your kid is badly behaved at a parochial or private or charter school, they can be kicked out. If your parents are paying for private school, then they already have a stake in your education.

Public education teaches EVERYONE else. Including the kids whose parents couldn’t even be bothered to register their kid for school.

 
 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2012-08-15 11:35:55

Algebra was not offered in my mother’s high school in the late 30s-early 40s.

Comment by Happy2bHeard
2012-08-15 21:02:58

This was in response to Jess’ conclusion: “And we would bet they got just as good or better an education back then .”

In my mother’s generation, algebra was a college level course. For many, education ended at 8th grade. For my children, algebraic concepts were introduced in 7th grade and even the slowest course progression covered basic algebra by high school graduation.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 23:19:55

My dad, who was generally a gifted student in his youth, never had the chance to take higher math, something he once intimated that he regretted.

By contrast, today the calculus is there for the taking for any kid who is sufficiently bright and motivated to seek the opportunity.

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Comment by vinceinwaukesha
2012-08-15 06:20:22

turkey lurkey - “the unfortunate reality is that nobody offers OJT these days.”

OJT is forbidden for hiring. Oh you don’t have a decade of experience with Windows Server 2007, we only hire people with resumes claiming a decade or more of experience with it (aka liars). This is actually a pretty severe problem as I’ve seen con artists roll in and out of departments, this is where the intense fear of job hoppers comes from. If you’re a good enough con artist you can rise extremely high both technically and in management without actually knowing anything at all.

OJT is compulsory once actually on the job. Hey I saw an article on “The Cloud” in PC Magazine and I’d like you to implement that here by Monday morning (said on Friday afternoon)

A more practical example for all desk workers is no one would ever be hired without extensive declared Windows Vista experience. However when desktop upgrades are rolled out to the existing employees, “eh, they’ll figure it out as they go along”.

An example that’s probably universal to all “operations role” employees is you’ll never get hired without a perfect match of current environment, but I can’t count how many times something I never heard or nor knew was deployed at work would break and I’d have to figure out what it is, what its supposed to do, how it works, why its broke, and how to fix it all on the fly at 2am. I imagine this is a nearly universal experience for all “operations role” employees across all technological fields.

The TLDR version is HR would never hire someone who’s primary skill is using google yet no one can survive when actually on the job without their primary most important skill being using google.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 07:26:13

:lol: Got that right!

“What do you mean you still don’t understand the most complex system ever created by some dyslexic engineers? We spent a WHOLE DAY/WEEK teaching it to you!”

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 07:48:59

but I can’t count how many times something I never heard of nor knew was deployed at work would break and I’d have to figure out what it is, what its supposed to do, how it works, why its broke, and how to fix it all on the fly at 2am.

Plus there’s no documentation for it anywhere, because there’s never time to document anything. And all the people who designed and implemented that dog were either laid off or quit years ago. Now you get to figure out why it doesn’t work with IE9!

Vince, you wouldn’t happen to work for Cardiac Science, would you?

 
 
Comment by palmetto
2012-08-15 06:23:36

“Program providing protection for young immigrants launched”

http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/15/us/immigration-deferred-deportation/index.html

Here we go, folks!

“I felt that after high school I didn’t have anywhere to go,” Davis told CNN. “I felt that if it was not something coming up soon I would end up back in Mexico.”

And that would be bad because….?

Now there’s a program that will be rife with government and lawyer assisted fraud.

Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-15 07:10:09

You are voting for Ron Paul. You have no right to complain anymore.

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-08-15 07:28:37

‘You have no right to complain anymore’

Ha ha! Spoken like a third grader. Meanwhile:

‘While the conventional wisdom in Washington is that sequestration would be a disaster, and that the cuts it would require would be “arbitrary,” as Josh Rogin writes in Foreign Policy, the reality is that there is so much waste and downright illegitimate spending in the military budget that the effect is bound to be beneficial. As Grover Norquist says: “

“You will get serious conversation from the advocates of Pentagon spending when they understand ‘here’s the dollar amount, now make decisions. [Republican hawks] want to argue you have to raise taxes.”

“He takes aim squarely at the Ryan budget, which has been adopted by the House GOP and is now at the center of the presidential campaign, characterizing it as typical of the Graham-McKeon spend-spend-spend mentality, which is an echo of the Bush years. Ryan’s proposed budget would increase military spending by $20 billion and is bereft of cost-cutting reforms. As Norquist put it:’

“Other people need to lead the argument on how can conservatives lead a fight to have a serious national defense without wasting money. I wouldn’t ask Ryan to be the reformer of the defense establishment.”

“Here’s the good news. There’s a very small number of them. The handful of [Republicans] that support that are either not coming back or they don’t know yet that they are not coming back.”

Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-15 07:34:13

When you vote Ron Paul, you are essentially not voting. Therefore if you don’t vote, you have no right to complain when things don’t go your way. This goes for all people who vote for fringe 3rd parties, on both sides of the political divide. You might as well vote for Donald Duck, it has the same net effect.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2012-08-15 07:41:04

‘if you don’t vote, you have no right to complain when things don’t go your way’

Oh yeah? Here’s a news flash; I’ll complain any damn time I want!

This message was approved by Donald Duck.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 08:09:47

“When you vote Ron Paul, you are essentially not voting.”

In that case I’ll have to vote for Obama. There’s no way I’m voting for Gordon Gekko.

Oh, an it turns out that Romney isn’t all that pro life either.

http://ncronline.org/news/politics/which-presidential-candidate-truly-pro-life

“But let’s not stop there. Obama does not financially profit from the abortion industry. Romney does. Bain Capital, in the time Romney was listed as its legal head and even when he was attending Bain board meetings, was an owner of Stericycle, a major disposer of the dead bodies of aborted children in the United States.”

I guess it was OK though, since it generated a profit.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 08:26:40

When you vote Ron Paul, you are essentially not voting. Therefore if you don’t vote, you have no right to complain

This is one of the dumbest things Smithers has said today.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2012-08-15 08:54:04

When you vote Ron Paul, you are essentially not voting. Therefore if you don’t vote, you have no right to complain when things don’t go your way. This goes for all people who vote for fringe 3rd parties,

What happens if you vote for the losing mainstream party?

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 09:04:38

People who feel this way are the problem. If people voted for the person they thought was the best candidate instead of political party we likely wouldn’t have the mess that we have today. The two major parties and the politicians who associate with them are bad news.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 11:45:29

I contend that voting for the shrink wrapped clowns offered to us by the power brokers is not voting at all. Voting for anyone else is a message to the NY-DC club that business as usual doesn’t satisfy.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 23:22:24

“This is one of the dumbest things Smithers has said today.”

Must’ve been quite a feat!

 
 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 10:31:47

Sequestration would be the best thing that could happen to this country right now. As piddling as the cuts would be, they’d at least finally force us — ALL of us– to examine our profligate spending policies and maybe even show the nation that we can endure them and (gasp) go on.

At some point, macro has to get micro.

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Comment by CharlieTango
2012-08-15 10:44:51

Sequestration would be the best thing that could happen to this country right now.

Hey, we agree!

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 12:20:57

Frequently. Just not always on the same implementations. ;-)

 
 
 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 07:19:31

“I felt that after high school I didn’t have anywhere to go,” Davis told CNN. “I felt that if it was not something coming up soon I would end up back in Mexico.”

Where you would be treated like, well, someone who’s not fully Mexican. Not after all those years en El Norte.

Your American-accented Spanish will be pointed out. And your American taste in fashion. Your gestures. Even the way you look at other people.

Comment by palmetto
2012-08-15 07:26:26

Wow, that would be racist, wouldn’t it?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 07:45:40

I can remember getting the same treatment when I was bicycle touring in Canada back in the 1980s. My American-ness was pointed out several times a day.

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Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 10:36:17

No, Palmy. That would be cultural dissonance. Racism is where you make sweeping categorizations about a people on the basis of their race with intent to antagonize and belittle them.

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Comment by goon squad
2012-08-15 11:43:32

No, Racism® is a trademarked brand name of Race Hustlers, Inc®.

White liberals who fear they may be perceived as Racist® because they live in a lily-white, bobos-in-paradise locale like Boulder or Ann Arbor can immunize against accusations of Racism® by displaying a COEXIST sticker on their vehicle.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-15 12:20:07

Oh man…I heard you guys talking about them but I didn’t realize *I* needed one.

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 12:31:42

Seriously? Those COEXIST bumper stickers are about race relations? Honestly thought they were an anti-war response that came about post 9-11 during the run-up to Iraq 2 when everyone was wearing their patriotism like those little made-in-China flags on their SUV.

Ain’t never seen one-a-’em in the whole of Kern Kounty.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-15 21:14:58

ahansen:

Ok so what would it be calling Sharpton a black racist because he would never apologize to the white duke Lacrosse players?

Or only calling out the difference between Blacks and Ebonic hood rats?

Or does Racism lose it meaning when there is no political correctness anymore?

——–
That would be cultural dissonance. Racism is where you make sweeping categorizations about a people on the basis of their race with intent to antagonize and belittle them.

 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2012-08-15 08:37:03

“Under the new policy, people younger than 30 who arrived in the United States before the age of 16, pose no criminal or security threat, and were successful students or served in the military, can get a two-year deferral from deportation and apply for work permits. Participants must prove they have been living in the country continuously for at least five years.”

This is pretty darn narrow. Far better than the loophole-ridden DREAM act.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 09:13:51

And its only a two year deferral.

Comment by polly
2012-08-15 11:22:03

And if you apply for it, there is a record of you acknowledging your status as undocumented.

Though seriously, how does an illegal immigrant get into the military?

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Comment by Ben Jones
2012-08-15 11:42:38

‘how does an illegal immigrant get into the military’

30 seconds on google find this:

‘How many of these young Latino recruits are illegal immigrants? “Nobody knows,” says Flavia Jimenez, an immigration policy analyst at the National Council of La Raza. “But what we do know is that recruiters may not be up to speed on everybody’s legal status. … We also know that a significant number of [illegals] have died in Iraq.” The recruitment of illegal immigrants is particularly intense in Los Angeles, where 75 percent of the high school students are Latino. “A lot of our students are undocumented,” says Arlene Inouye, a teacher at Garfield High School in East Los Angeles, “and it’s common knowledge that recruiters offer green cards.” Inouye is the coordinator and founder of the Coalition Against Militarism in Our Schools (CAMS), a counter-recruitment organization that educates teenagers about deceptive recruiting practices. “The practice is pretty widespread all over the nation,” she says, “especially in California and Texas. … The recruiters tell them, ‘you’ll be helping your family.’

http://www.inthesetimes.com/article/3271/

‘The administration plan is to stop deporting many illegal immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children. To be eligible, immigrants must prove they arrived in the United States before they turned 16, are 30 or younger, have been living here at least five years and are in school or graduated or served in the military.’

http://www.mercurynews.com/nation-world/ci_21318570/u-s-launches-program-give-illegal-immigrants-work

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 12:31:18

You mean you don’t have to show a DL and a birth certificate to enlist?

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 12:40:08

During the heyday of Iraq2, billboards along Central California’s Hwys 58 and 99, and all the recruiting stations in the strip malls of Bakersfield sported these huge banners that read– and I’m quoting here:

“YO SOY EL ARMY”

 
Comment by polly
2012-08-15 20:14:51

If they get you a green card, you aren’t illegal anymore.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-15 06:47:43

Tell me again how horrible the Ryan pick was….

For the first time since he began running for president, Republican Mitt Romney has the support of over 40 percent of America’s youth vote, a troubling sign for President Obama who built his 2008 victory with the overwhelming support of younger, idealistic voters.

Pollster John Zogby of JZ Analytics told Secrets Tuesday that Romney received 41 percent in his weekend poll of 1,117 likely voters, for the first time crossing the 40 percent mark. What’s more, he said that Romney is the only Republican of those who competed in the primaries to score so high among 18-29 year olds.

“This is the first time I am seeing Romney’s numbers this high among 18-29 year olds,” said Zogby. “This could be trouble for Obama who needs every young voter he can get.”

In addition to this, Gallup currently has Romney up by 2% and Rasmussen has him up by 3%, nationally.

Comment by palmetto
2012-08-15 07:22:23

Oh, hell, yeah! I wuz out shopping at one of the big box stores and got into a discussion with a former Marine (or so he said, I’m guessing he was Vietnam era). Anyway he tells me how much he loves to fish and he wants to get out of the area because all the water around here is poisoned from the Tampa Electric power plant on the bay and other assorted industrial pollutants. The fish are poisoned, the air is poisoned, he has to go all the way down to Sarasota to do some decent fishing.

Then he launches into a diatribe about what swell fellows R & R are.

I wondered if his head was going to explode trying to reconcile de-regulation with clean air and water.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 08:02:49

Sounds more like he fishes on the de Nile.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 08:31:27

lol

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Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 11:15:28

Dammit! It would have been funnier if it weren’t my dyslexia today and the redundant “the”. :lol:

 
 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:27:44

Iowa. Electronic. Markets.

The futures aren’t looking so bright for R&R…

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 08:03:25

The only poll that matters is the one on election day.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 23:25:49

It’s not election day yet, is it?

Nonetheless, there apparently is academic research which shows the IEM Futures are a better predictor of the election outcome than the Gallup poll.

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Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 08:36:59

McSame got a bounce when he picked Palin…. Until people got to know her.

Let’s wait until we get some hard questions, and until we get a debate or two. Then let’s see what the Ryan pick does.

Ryan solidifies the base. Ryan will drive away the moderates that really decide elections.

Look, personally I’d love to see Romney/Ryan win. I’d love to see them continue to run $1T+ deficits and have unemployment above 8% and everything else that will happen when reality slaps their rhetorical “plans” upside the head.

We need BOTH parties to try and fail to fix this economy with the same failed policies of the past. Only then will there be any hope of us pulling our heads out of our stink holes and actually trying something different.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 12:29:16

“Ryan solidifies the base. Ryan will drive away the moderates that really decide elections.”

That’s my take as well.

 
 
Comment by SDGreg
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-15 11:11:08

Right you are SDGreg. Only Democrats use Twitter. It’s simply unfathomable that Romney/Ryan would have a following. Oh wait….

Studying 456 Congressional Twitter accounts, the firm found that Republicans are exceeding on all the “success metrics”: engagement, mentions, amplification and follower growth. Congressional Republicans on Twitter have their tweets replied to twice as often as Democrats and are mentioned more often.

Republicans also had an edge in analyses done through TweetLevel, a tool built by Edelman to score levels of “influence,” “engagement,” “popularity” and “trust” on Twitter — though liberal Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who caucuses with Democrats, had the highest ratings for “influence” and “engagement.”

Republicans tweeted 52 percent more links than Democrats and mentioned specific pieces of legislation 3.5 times more than their colleagues across the aisle. They also used more hashtags than Democrats — a way to help elevate the visibility of certain keywords and causes — and included pictures and videos to make their communications more colorful.

Sorry libs.

 
 
 
Comment by vinceinwaukesha
2012-08-15 07:13:48

Realistic maint cost estimates?

Yesterday’s bits had a quote of $250/mo for maintenance. I live in a (formerly) stereotypical middle class home, not a tiny row home or a giant mcmansion, just your average 1950s housing stock. I can only dream of only $250/month.

For one example of some big ticket items, a new roof, completely new hvac, and new hot water heater along with some plumbing would be 4 years worth of that $250/mo. This is before medium size expenses like my new washer and dryer which cost $1100 for both apparently every 12 years like clockwork. This is before the huge number of small expenses, like paint for the garage only $20 every 5 to 10 years or whatever, but times a zillion other small expenses, it adds up.

If you have a computerized accounting system, quicken, mint, whatever, you can pull where and how you spend money, and I blow about $250/month very long term average at home depot… alone.

I would hazard a guess that medium size, young to medium age home ownership means around $500 a month needs to be budgeted.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 07:59:11

and I blow about $250/month very long term average at home depot… alone

You’re kidding, I don’t spend that much there in a year. What in the world do you buy there? The last time I set foot in a Home Depot or Lowes was a few months ago to buy some carpet cleaner.

Last year was a “big spending year” for us. We had to replace the front panel and control module on our double decker oven ($500) and had some minor roof repair (also $500).

So far this year there have been no major repairs. We did spend $150 getting the A/C recharged, but that’s it. I buy the air filters at Amazon, $30 for a year’s worth.

Our biggest year ever was when we had the exterior painted. That was $3K.

 
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-15 11:23:35

“For one example of some big ticket items, a new roof, completely new hvac, and new hot water heater along with some plumbing would be 4 years worth of that $250/mo. ”

And a home warranty would cover all that for about $500/year. I had my a/c conk out this summer (on a day when it was 95 degrees of course). I called the home warranty company, paid a $50 deductible and it was fixed.

” would hazard a guess that medium size, young to medium age home ownership means around $500 a month needs to be budgeted.”

$6K a year for maintenance? I’ve owned a house on an off for 7 years in total. The most I ever spent on repairs was about $2000 which included a pipe burst outdoors during an extreme cold snap. I should have insulated the pipe better, my fault, but oh well lesson learned. That was 1 year out of 7.

On average I’d guess total repairs/maintenance have run me on average no more than $1000. Add $500-600 for the warranty and it’s $1500 a year.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:29:15

Aug. 15, 2012, 10:00 a.m. EDT
Aug. NAHB builder index hits more than 5-yr high
By Steve Goldstein

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes climbed in August to the highest level in more than five years on expectations the recovery in housing can continue. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose 2 points to a seasonally adjusted reading of 37, the best level since February 2007. There’s still a way to go for the index to reach the 50 level indicating “good” conditions, which hasn’t been the case since April 2006. The component measuring current sales conditions rose 3 points to 39, and the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers rose 3 points to 31. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose a point to 44.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 07:30:15

It’s amazing to me that the builders believe the fake housing recovery is real.

Are these guys a bunch of dupes?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 07:48:08

As has been pointed out on this blog many times, people in the real estate industrial complex aren’t the deepest thinkers out there. Even on our worst and crankiest days, there’s a lot more intellectual depth here.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 07:50:37

When you have a “fiction economy”, hype is the only thing that is real.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 08:09:18

Exactly. market stopped on the old “supply/demand” model long, long time ago.

It used to be that you identified a need and created and sold the solution, Now you must manufacture the need and then sell the solution. Because if you’re not poor, every need you could ever have has several solutions to solving it.

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Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 08:12:35

Who the hell is writing my sentences?

Sheesh. :lol: Dyslexic day, I guess.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 08:47:44

I just know there is a real economy somewhere in their beneath all the hype, money printing and bailouts…

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Comment by Lisa
2012-08-15 07:52:53

“It’s amazing to me that the builders believe the fake housing recovery is real.”

Builders and all the folks buying houses right now. A young couple around the corner for me just put their little starter cottage on the market, offers in immediately, big contrast to 2 years ago when they tried to sell to no avail. But wait for it….they priced $60K less than they paid for it 6 years ago and they’ll have to pay commission….so about $100K down the tubes, plus the higher cost of owning for the last 6 years. But they plan to buy another, larger house immediately for their growing family. Another couple did the same thing, rented out their underwater house and bought another.

Maybe it’s just me, but if I’d lost $100K on my first house I wouldn’t be looking to buy anytime soon.

But people around here really believe this Spring’s “stronger market” means a full fledged recovery is underway. Forget about artificially low interest rates, shadow inventory, Euro crisis, crippling debt in California, etc. And the fact that folks who bought during the bubble and are selling now are losing six figures.

Kool-Aid Deluxe, I guess. But the bubble mentality is alive and well.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 08:14:28

Who are these people with money to burn to like that and how can they be so damn stupid and yet make that kind of money?

Dear god!

Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 08:23:22

They are going to short sale. It will be the bank that eats the loss, not the “buyers”.

Comment by Lisa
2012-08-15 08:50:34

It’s not a short sale. They made a down payment, so are losing their own money.

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Comment by Housing Is A Massive Loss
2012-08-15 11:15:10

Massive losses on housing at current inflated asking prices…….. Massive

 
 
 
 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 08:22:07

“Maybe it’s just me, but if I’d lost $100K on my first house I wouldn’t be looking to buy anytime soon.”

Sounds like you can’t see beyond the end of your nose.

Buying when prices were 200x rent in no way translates to buying when prices are 70x rent.

Yeah, they shouldn’t have bought when prices were WAY too high. That in no way means they should not buy if prices have returned to or below a fundamental value.

Comment by Lisa
2012-08-15 08:46:53

“Yeah, they shouldn’t have bought when prices were WAY too high. That in no way means they should not buy if prices have returned to or below a fundamental value.”

Maybe if they were buying someplace else, that would be true.

The lovely little cottage I rent in Marin for $1,800 would sell for around $550,000. 12 years of annual rent = $259,200.

I’ve lived in Marin for 16 years, half of which were as an owner. Prices still aren’t at or below fundamental value. Median HHI income here is around $80K and the median house is about 9x that figure.

Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 09:08:25

so, prices are still insanely high where you are. That does not mean they are still crazy high everywhere.

My house, that would rent for $1300-1400 a month would sell for about $110K I think. Condos that would rent for $700 a month are selling for $50K.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 12:49:12

There it is right there, the S&L model.

With the cost of food, gas and the general cost of living going down, with general employment and wages reaching for new highs, with government running ample surplusses and reducing taxes, with all of that, rents have nowhere to go but up!

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Is A Massive Loss
2012-08-15 10:11:06

“That in no way means they should not buy if prices have returned to or below a fundamental value.”

Prices are still grossly inflated my friend.

Nice try though.

 
 
 
Comment by Lisa
2012-08-15 08:20:16

“Who are these people with money to burn to like that and how can they be so damn stupid and yet make that kind of money?”

I’m in Marin County, just north of San Francisco.

We had a huge bubble here and there’s a real “competitive spend” keep up with the Joneses mentality.

Homeownership = Success

And people are so convinced housing is a no brainer, even when they lose money they are willing to sign up for another round. Less status as a renter, you know -);

I’ve been renting since 2005 and you couldn’t pay me to buy a house anytime soon.

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 08:30:13

Hey Republicans, a couple questions….

How many months after taking office will Romney balance the budget?

How many months will it take him to return unemployment to below 5%?

How many months will it take Romney to return interest rates to normal levels? (7%?)

How many jobs is Romney going to create in his first 3 months on the job?

What is Romney going to do about Baby Boomer retirement?

3 months after Obama took office, everything bad happening in the economy was his fault. Will the same apply to Romney? 3 months after he takes office, Romney will be responsible for everything?

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-08-15 08:36:35

‘3 months after Obama took office, everything bad happening in the economy was his fault’

That’s interesting, because some posters here say that after all these years, nothing is Obama’s fault.

Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 08:40:00

The comment was directed directly at the couple Republican shills that post here.

Personally, I think the problems go back 50 years to the 1960s when we began to embrace rather than resist trade imbalances… but that is not the opinion of the partisan hacks.

So, I’m asking the partisan hacks, who 3 months after he was elected was blaming everything on Obama, how long will it take Romney to fix it.

It is super easy to point fingers at Obama and say “He didn’t fix it”. What I want them to do is go on record with a statement of how soon Romney will fix it.

Comment by CharlieTango
2012-08-15 10:42:33

Depends on 2 things:

1) Can Romney become conservative enough to fix it?

2) Who will control congress and with what margins?

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-15 08:48:32

some posters here say that after all these years, nothing is Obama’s fault.

I think a lot of things are Obama’s fault.
Resigning the Patriot Act
Unlawful detentions
Wall Street Kissup
Goldman Sachs Kissup
Timothy Geithner etc etc

However IMO the Republicans would have done all of the above and worse. We’ve tried the Republican economic ideas for 32 years and they’ve kneecapped the middle-class. So what’s Obama’s “fault” pales in comparison to what the Republicans have done, would have done and would do. I think a lot of posters who defend Obama feel as I do. So in the context of the alternative during an election, we don’t care too much what is Obama’s fault.

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-08-15 09:00:44

‘a lot of posters who defend Obama…don’t care too much what is Obama’s fault’

Yeah, we all know that now.

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Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 09:04:59

I guess Obamacare was pretty bad too. Get the hospitals and drug companies together with the insurance companies, and figure out how “healthcare reform” can increase the profits of all of them… without actually addressing cost issues that would actually lower profits for the industry players.

Obama, like the Republicans, appears to believe that the economy exists so that the rich can get richer.

He may say the words “strong middle class” but his actions have not shown he believes it.

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 09:55:28

At best, he’s the lesser of two evils. Hardly something to get excited about.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 12:53:30

Whoever you are referring to, “he” is compromised by the bribes and influence of the money centers. “He” presides over a congress that is compromised in the same way.

Why is it that people so adore their abusers?

 
 
 
 
Comment by michael
2012-08-15 08:43:05

We are damned if we do; damned if we don’t.

Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 08:47:51

My point exactly. I just want the Republicans shills to go on the record with something positive about their candidate. All they do is attack Obama.

What is Romney going to do? How many jobs will that create, and how soon?

I want them to stop attacking Obama (too easy) and start talking about what their guy is going to do!

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-08-15 08:58:22

‘All they do is attack Obama…I want them to stop attacking Obama’

That’s pretty funny.

BTW, I spend some time in Nevada. The number of attack ads being shown on TV in ’swing states’ is a good deal more than Arizona. Both candidates are going after each other as I see it.

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Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 09:17:37

Obama deserves to be attacked. Only the most partisan (and there’s plenty here) feel he shouldn’t be. Rio mentioned some of the most outrageous things he’s done. The fact that anyone’s talking about voting for him OR Romney makes me want to vomit.

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 09:52:30

I hope you have a lot of buckets.

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 12:44:09

Snort

 
 
 
 
Comment by Lip
2012-08-15 12:12:55

Darrell,

No one knows for sure, but under the current administration, all of those answers would be “NEVER”

Man, I sure hope it cools down one of these days. My car temp hit 116 yesterday.

Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 12:45:31

Everybody sing along…

It’s…be…ginning to look a lot like Ve-nus….

Comment by Lip
2012-08-15 12:51:47

ahansen, you are sick, but funny

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Comment by goon squad
2012-08-15 14:10:13

Romney will create 1,000’s of jobs for private sector, for profit, government contractors.

 
 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 08:46:01

Romney’s economic “plan” includes a line item that says “Save $50B a year by cutting fraud in half”.

How exactly does he plan on doing that?

And, Romney says he wants to repeal Obamacare. So???? Back to an ever larger portion of the population not having healthcare insurance?

And he wants to repeal Dodd Frank, especially the resolution authority it provided. So, next time we’re facing cascade default into depression, what would he do? Another bailout that preserves the “Too big to fail”, or allow the cascade default?

Just saw the commercial from Romney about how there are 23 million people out of work and unemployment has been over 8% for 40 straight months.

So, I ask again. How many months after Romney takes office will it take before unemployment is back under 5%?

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 09:58:09

“Save $50B a year by cutting fraud in half”

Financial deregulation => less anti-fraud monitoring and enforcement costs

 
Comment by Lip
2012-08-15 12:11:04

You have to elect him to find out!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KoE1R-xH5To

Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 13:00:11

Aside from your obvious sarcasm, I believe you are right. Nothing said before the election will bear any resemblance to what is delivered after.

Doesn’t matter, the lemmings will still love their team mascot.

 
 
 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 08:55:53

An economy needs to provide jobs for everyone, not just those with an IQ placing them in the top 10% most intelligent.

Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 09:18:57

Don’t tell that to the higher education hacks.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2012-08-15 09:25:58

Years ago, a commentator noted that if Beltway Pundit jobs were being threatened by offshoring, rather than textile workers, you’d be hearing non-stop howls of how important it would be to protect those jobs.

Comment by SDGreg
2012-08-15 10:25:27

If they were simply subjected to the same wages and working conditions of the average middle or upper middle class worker, it would be much harder for them to shill for the one percenters with whom they’re more than cozy.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 09:49:46

I don’t think it’s quite that bad (yet) but your point is well taken.

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 11:20:11

Marie Antoinette didn’t get this either.

 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2012-08-15 09:05:02

“Fool me once, shame you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”

Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 09:28:46

Fool me twice? Not…not…not gonna fool me again.

Comment by michael
2012-08-15 09:46:01

now stand back and watch this shot.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 11:22:04

That’s unpossible! Do not misunderestimate it!

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Comment by Neuromance
2012-08-15 09:24:29

Mortgage Bond Market Dwindles to Aid Fed Punch: Credit Markets
By Jody Shenn - Aug 15, 2012 6:56 AM ET
Bloomberg

The market for mortgage securities backed by the U.S. government is the smallest in three years, bolstering the value of the debt and potentially expanding the effects of any new buying by the Federal Reserve.

U.S. home-mortgage debt fell to $9.75 trillion as of March 31 from a record $10.6 trillion four years earlier, according to the latest data from the Fed. The amount had doubled from 2001 to 2008, leaving borrowers overburdened as home prices tumbled. After values fell 35 percent through February from a 2006 peak, they gained 3.6 percent as of May, according to an S&P/Case Shiller index.

The so-called agency mortgage-bond market, composed of securities guaranteed by government-supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or U.S.-owned Ginnie Mae, initially grew at the start of the credit crisis as the private market froze amid record foreclosures.

The market for U.S. home-loan securities without government backing has also contracted, falling to $1 trillion from a $2.3 trillion peak in 2007, Bloomberg and Fed data show. About $3 billion of bonds tied to new loans have been issued since 2008.

In contrast, the $4.5 trillion market for investment-grade U.S. company bonds has been growing. Outstanding debt without guarantees from governments has expanded by more than $270 billion this year, after increasing about $580 billion during the previous two years, according to JPMorgan data.

The government-backed mortgage market, which helps finance about 90 percent of new mortgages, has also shrunk as more home buyers use cash for property investments. All-cash deals accounted for 29 percent of existing-home sales last quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The bolded line above is what I’m talking about when I say the housing market is heavily subsidized by the government. How long can they keep that Wall Street subsidy going? This has been going on for a few years now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-15/mortgage-bond-market-dwindles-to-aid-fed-punch-credit-markets.html

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 09:44:10

The ongoing economic recovery, including the housing market upswing, is going to make it hard for the Fed to press its QE3 case.

But the news doesn’t seem to be affecting stock prices…odd, no?

Aug. 15, 2012, 11:28 a.m. EDT
Better data raises doubts of quick Fed easing move
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The better tone of the economic data in the two weeks since the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting have caused some Fed watchers to doubt that the central bank will launch another massive bond purchase program next month.

Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote a note to clients on Tuesday saying the data reduces the probability of QE3 in September.

He said he is more confident in his call that the Fed won’t start another quantitative easing plan until the end of the year, at the earliest.

“We believe that continued weakness is necessary to prompt a substantial easing move. And so far, that weakness is not showing up in the data,” Hatzius wrote.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 09:55:27

“He said he is more confident in his call that the Fed won’t start another quantitative easing plan until the end of the year, at the earliest.”

There is also the delicate matter of a November election this fall, and that R&R have come out against QE3, creating a political dimension to the pre-election FOMC meeting outcomes.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 09:57:01

Best guess about what will come out of pre-November FOMC meetings:

1) The Fed will keep the door open to QE3;
2) The Fed will refrain from going through the door before the election.

Can anyone foresee any other possible scenarios?

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Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 13:02:19

Do you think that the Fed has stopped easing one tiny little bit?

 
Comment by Patrick
2012-08-15 13:50:13

President Obama will stimulate the business sector !

QE 3 would be almost useless - except to help maintain status quo.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 13:55:53

“Do you think that the Fed has stopped easing one tiny little bit?”

Days like today certainly suggest someone is propping up Wall Street share prices. I have no way to determine whether it is the Fed or some other bailout entity who is propping up the U.S. headline indexes.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 10:44:21

From the opinion article:

“None of this makes sense. In fact, Obama’s move only harms American consumers while protecting a corrupt federal program.”

Protecting corrupt federal programs and agencies has been a hallmark of this administration. Hope and change nothing. How about more of the same?

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-15 10:47:11

I’ll just keep enjoying the cheap race gas as long as I can…I’m currently running a 50/50 mix and about 6 more degrees of timing than I can on straight 91 octane. Speaking of which, I need to go down to the E85 station over lunch and fill up…

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 11:17:56

Hey, Carl, got any videos from recent races?

Note to the HBB: Carl is a very good race car driver. Nice, steady steering, even at top speeds. He’s quite crisp on the acceleration too.

Comment by Housing Is A Massive Loss
2012-08-15 11:34:47

Carl and I are going to have wheelchair races using our HoverRounds in our retirement…… We’re going to see who makes it from the RV park to 7-11 first.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-15 12:28:03

We’re going to see who makes it from the RV park to 7-11 first.

Ya know…I noticed the 55+ community has some sweet curvy sidewalks. They’d be great for trading paint. We could consider going upscale…

 
Comment by California Is Cratering
2012-08-15 14:55:52

Dude…. check out my rig man… I’m rollin’ on a pair of 20″ chromes.

When are we gonna race?

http://www.webandgraphicservices.com/images/DSC03499.jpg

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-15 15:36:59

Uh oh…that looks fast. Ummm, mine’s making a funny sound I gotta look at first. I’ll come find you when it’s running right again.

 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-15 12:24:34

Hey, Carl, got any videos from recent races?

No, I haven’t made it back to the track. It’s been too hot this year and hot = slow. I have been working on the car software quite a bit, though, and hope to be about 1/2 second faster next time. Hopefully within the next month.

After you talked up my driving now I’ll be too embarrassed to post a fast but ugly run :-).

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Comment by CharlieTango
2012-08-15 11:04:41

Campaigning in Missouri Valley, Iowa, yesterday, President Obama announced yet another government spending program — this time designed to inflate meat prices in Midwest swing states. “Today the Department of Agriculture announced that it will buy up to $100 million worth of pork products, $50 million worth of chicken, and $20 million worth of lamb and farm-raised catfish,” Obama explained to reporters in front of a drought-stricken cornfield.

“Prices are low, farmers and ranchers need help, so it makes sense,” Obama explained. “It makes sense for farmers who get to sell more of their product, and it makes sense for taxpayers who will save money because we’re getting food we would have bought anyway at a better price.”

HUH????

Pay more for govt, more for meat, more for food, energy prices will necessarily sky-rocket, pay my fair share, wet just want to spread it around, you didn’t build that bidness, …

Me and the prez don’t see exactly “eye to eye”

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 12:39:42

Okay, fine. Buy all the meat you want, feds. But that still won’t stop me from being vegetarian — most of the time.

 
Comment by 2banana
2012-08-15 13:01:34

Does this fall under “hope and change” or “yes we can?”

Campaigning in Missouri Valley, Iowa, yesterday, President Obama announced yet another government spending program — this time designed to inflate meat prices in Midwest swing states.

 
 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 11:26:34

Are any of you familiar with the mechanics of minimizing food commodity volatility and price swings?

Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-15 11:30:12

Yes, when stuff is cheap I load my freezer.

 
Comment by Northeastener
2012-08-15 11:57:08

I call foul. This is pandering to the Agri-lobby, pure and simple.

Once again, Socialism at work: Control of the Production, Distribution, and Manufacture of Goods per our discussion yesterday. FedGov steps in as buyer of last resort to prevent food prices from falling to levels that would create difficulties for farmers. Sound familiar? It should… governments been propping up markets like Wall St and Housing, it might as well do the same with Agriculture.

What happened to Farm Insurance? Doesn’t distort market pricing of commodities and addresses the problem of swings in commodity pricing causing Farm failures in Agriculture. Guess that wasn’t a good enough solution.

Market = Bad. Government Price Fixing = Good. Works for Finance, works for Housing, works for Agriculture. Is there nothing the Socialists will leave alone?

Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-15 13:05:21

With the drought we had this summer, and corn fields all over about knee high here in mid August, it’s never been a better time to burn the corn.

It will be nice to have a full pantry going into this winter.

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Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-15 23:49:10

Agree that insurance system would of been a better way to
handle potential loss in Agri-business .

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Comment by samk
2012-08-15 10:42:10

Things must really be getting better. Over the past two weeks in the little burg I call home I have seen a Maserati Quattroporte, an AMG SL63, a Tesla Karma (just WHY???), and a Bentley Continental GTC. Used to be I’d see a Hummer here and there and that was about it.

Or maybe people are just saying, “Eff it. Gonna get something while I still can.”

Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-15 11:00:52

all repo’s????

Comment by samk
2012-08-15 11:30:53

Good thought. Still way out of the norm for this place.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 12:19:39

May some drug dealers have moved into your little burg

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Comment by ahansen
2012-08-15 12:50:52

Or Chinese real estate mavens.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Is A Massive Loss
2012-08-15 12:15:13

California Housing on Shaky Ground

http://dailycapitalist.com/2012/08/14/california-housing-on-shaky-ground/

On a shaky ground ready to crater that is. Kind of like this house on the edge of the growing crater.

http://www.tlj-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/SH2.jpg

Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-15 14:10:05

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/aug/11/letters-california-job-growth-vocational-education/

“Between September 2010 and March 2011, California added 200,000 jobs for a growth rate of 1.5 percent, compared to the national average of 0.6 percent,”

“In addition, the Golden State attracts more venture capital investment than all other 49 states combined, according to Standard & Poor’s,”

http://blog.pe.com/economy/2012/08/09/californias-job-growth-expected-to-continue/

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2012/08/13/california-texas-lead-the-way-with.html

Comment by butters
2012-08-15 16:38:11

Nation’s unemployment rate 8.2, CA is 10.7.

Social media bust is coming. Prepare yourself.

Comment by California Is Cratering
2012-08-15 17:48:18

heh…… a California sized moon crater

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Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-15 17:52:18

Total “Information” jobs in CA as of June 2012 (from BLS, and includes internet related jobs) is 451k, up from 430k last year.

CA added ~280k jobs during that same timeframe (also BLS data).

Social media growth is <10% of the picture.

Remember, Yahoo! is still in business and employs people. You think Facebook is going away? You should short the stock.

Groupon (the start of this thread) is headquartered in Chicago.

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Comment by California Is Cratering
2012-08-15 18:24:16

Only three states in the country have double digit unemployment rates…

1) Nevada
2) Rhode Island
3) California

Why buy a house in one of these economic dead zones? You’re going to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Who can afford to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars?

Houses depreciate.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by CRATER
2012-08-15 12:25:38

_ _ ___ _ _
/ |_) /\ | |_ |_)
\_ | \ /–\ | |_ | \

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 13:20:31

It took a moment to get the drift, but I did.

Comment by CRATER
2012-08-15 14:46:08

lol slim.

 
 
 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-15 13:40:41
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 13:55:00

Because Robber Barons collude and rig the market? (And if you drive an electric or hybrid car, then you’re a panty waisted, tree hugging hippy)

Comment by Northeastener
2012-08-15 14:23:55

Or because speculators are running up the price on supply concerns because of the CA refinery fire and ME tensions over Syria and Iran.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 16:03:36

That sounds like Robber Barons to me.

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Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 14:40:39

OPEC cut production to match the lower demand.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2012-08-15 13:46:58

Property Values Sink Further in Spain — Wealth Will Be Slow to Recover
Ben Vickers | Aug. 15, 2012 4:08 AM EDT | Bloomberg

House prices in Spain have dropped 31 percent since the beginning of 2008, according to property valuer Tinsa. This means that the value of most Spaniards’ assets have also dropped by about a third, in another sign of how the financial crisis is forcing a readjustment in the relative wealth of Europeans. Given the state of the economy, that wealth will not return any time soon.

The steepest drop in home values is along the Mediterranean coast, where on average prices have fallen 37 percent, as El Pais reports. This area is closely followed by prices in large cities, which have dropped almost 34 percent. This is where Spain’s construction bubble was strongest. Still, prices will have to drop further before there’s any pick up in sales: even at this discount, the number of home sales dropped 11.4 percent in June compared with a year earlier – the number of home sales have been declining for 16 straight months and now amounts to about a third of what it was at the top of the market.

Readjusting the Spanish economy after this bubble will require other industries to take up the slack left by the builders. Construction created more than 100,000 jobs in 2004, a quarter of all new jobs in the country that year. That brought the number of people employed in the industry to about 2 million, according to the government. The number of homes built in Spain was greater than the total built in all the rest of the European Union together. It’s far from clear where the new jobs are going to come from.

Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-15 15:26:47

Spain is about 20% larger than CA in terms of population.

At the peak, they were building about 700,000 homes per year.

At CA’s peak, they were building about 200,000 homes per year.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 16:02:09

Like I’ve said before, Spain never had a real economy. It was a 3rd world country pretending to be a 1st world nation.

 
Comment by butters
2012-08-15 16:31:51

3 millions in CA are “illegals.” They will most likely never own a home. I also think CA’s peak years lasted a little longer than Spain’s.

Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-15 17:22:34

“I also think CA’s peak years lasted a little longer than Spain’s.”

Actually not at all. But don’t take my word for it, you really need to look at the data and come to your own conclusions.

With respect to illegals…CA home ownership rate is only 54%, we do have an inordinate number of renters. In any event, onto supply, which includes rental property development.

CA Housing Starts (Multi,as well as Single-family)

2000 149k
2001 149k
2002 168k
2003 196k
2004 213k
2005 209k
2006 164k
2007 113k
2008 65k
2009 36k
2010 45k
2011 47k

And there wasn’t a bubble in the 90’s in terms of housing starts, so I’m not being selective…here is the data that includes the 90’s (and before):

http://www.cbia.org/go/cbia/?LinkServID=FE5ED931-F09E-44C7-96836630388F21F7&showMeta=0

It is said that the US needs to build ~1.5 million homes per year at “normalcy”, which is the average from 1959 to 2012, which includes boom and bust data, not adjusted upward for higher population (we added 22 million population from 1970 to 1980, and 27 million from 2000 to 2010, for instance), and greater need to replace old structures (http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-housing-start-data-since-1960-2012-5).

CA is ~12% of the entire US population, and since CA is growing at about the same pace as the rest of the country (or at least did from 2000 to 2010), CA should have built ~180k housing units per year at “normal”.

For the years listed above, CA only exceeded that 180k for 3 years, for a total excess built of 78k units in those 3 years, which has more than been made up in 2007-2012 (and even 2000 to 2002).

There is a reason Trulia calls vacancy rates in CA “very low” (http://www.forbes.com/sites/trulia/2012/08/03/housing-glut-or-housing-shortage-americas-got-both/).

Because it is.

Spain was WAY more out of control:

http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/market/housing-starts-spain-v-uk.htm

If you assume 20% larger population equals 20% more housing, Spain should have been building ~225k homes per year max.

From the chart starting only in 2000 (numbers are approximate from my reading of the graph).

2000: ~580k
2001: ~550k
2002: ~610k
2003: ~680k
2004: ~760k
2005: ~810k
2006: ~910k

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Comment by California Is Cratering
2012-08-15 18:05:37

Nonsense Rental Pimp….

Us Population growth from 2000-2010 is the lowest in recorded history.

And worse yet for you housing pimps in the Land of Fruits and Nuts, California population growth is even less than the national population growth.

See for yourself….

http://tinyurl.com/cxke54z

So answer this question…..

Why are you lying to the public about housing?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-15 18:42:55

Do the math (from your link):

CA Population grew from 33.988 million in July 2000 to 37.6919 million in July 2010, for an overall increase of 3.7039 million, or 10.9%.

The US Population (which includes CA) grew from 282.1624 million in July 2000 to 311.5919 in July 2010, for an overall increase of 29.4295, or 10.4%.

Roughly the same rate of growth (CA actually grew a bit faster than the US as a whole).

The RATE of growth for the US population WAS the lowest on records. You are correct.

However, the AGGREGATE growth in population (number of people, not rate) was no where close to the lowest in recorded history.

Why are you lying?

 
Comment by California Is Cratering
2012-08-15 18:56:04

You’re a LIAR.

California population growth is the lowest in that states history….. and FALLING.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California#Population

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Northeastener
2012-08-15 14:36:33

Per Bloomberg article:

Auto Industry struggles to fill $100K engineer positions

For how long has the US been struggling to meet demand for Engineers and Computer Science graduates? For how long has the US been lagging other countries in Math and Science?

And here is the result: Shortages of labor, higher wages, and bonuses when the general U3 unemployment is at 8+% and U6 much higher. I lived in MI for a few years when I did work for the automotive industry in the late 90’s. $100k salary goes a long way there…

Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-15 15:11:24

But the appliciants didn’t want to move to Mexico to fill the post ,at least if they were applying to Ford Moter Company.

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 15:30:51

Demographics… Idiotocracy.

devo

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 16:00:55

Could it be that the talent doesn’t want to relocate to Michigan? At my previous place of employment we had all kinds of engineers: EEs, MEs, CS, etc. If we had an opening it was easy to fill, and didn’t require 6 figure salaries.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-15 16:38:54

I have a friend who has started more than one IT company in Michigan. In Ann Arbor, Michigan, to be precise.

He’s never had a problem with employee recruiting.

 
 
 
Comment by California Is Cratering
2012-08-15 14:50:56

Uh oh…..

State unemployment rates….. California coming in at #3 just behind Rhode Island and Nevada.

Oh my word……

http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm/

Comment by 2banana
2012-08-15 14:57:02

11.6% on one end of the scale and 2.9% on the other.

Why God made super highways…

Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-08-15 15:51:00

Superhighways do you little good when you’re a member of the Ownership Society who can’t sell because you’re underwater in the jobless wasteland you inhabit.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 15:54:43

So you stop paying the mortgage and hit the highway when the finally evict you.

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-15 15:53:26

So why haven’t you moved from your high tax hell hole to the Dakotas, Oklahoma or Nebraska?

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-08-15 15:08:28

In the News today ….Congress Votes Itself a Pay Raise .

You gotta give up ,give up ,give up, but ,don’t expect them to . It awful hard work being bribed ,deserves a raise .

Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-15 15:47:20

And did we tell you the name of the game, boy? We call it ‘Riding the Gravy Train’

 
 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-15 15:28:25

A few weeks back I was buried in work. I would read the site from time to time, but didn’t have time to respond properly.

One of the posts that I want to respond to, but lacked time was on Cantankerous made on money…. Something to the effect of “Why do we keep changing what money is?”

This is closely related to the post above “I just know there is a real economy somewhere in their beneath all the hype, money printing and bailouts…”.

The reason we keep changing what money is, is because we’re looking for something a lot less flawed. The history of economics is the history of booms and busts. We want stability. We want it to be possible for everyone to safely save, earn on their savings, and redeem for value later. And unfortunately, we keep finding that whatever we use for money is flawed.

Too hard of a currency, it gets hoarded by the few and we can’t just create more to keep the economy functioning.

Too soft, and its value goes to zero when it can’t be repaid.

The real economy that you are looking for is the production and movement of goods and services. What is fake, is the money that is backed by excess debt that we will not be paid back, and that we will not take the political and economic steps necessary to ensure can be paid back.

There is money for all the debt. We just need the political will to get the money out of the hands of the few, so that it can be earned by those that need to repay their debts.

Comment by Apostate
2012-08-15 16:52:56

“We just need the political will to get the money out of the hands of the few”.

That would require a whole lot more than political will.

 
 
Comment by Cratering Global Housing
2012-08-15 19:58:10

How much of a liar do you think this “woman” is?

http://www.remax.com/national-corp/biographies/margaret_kelly.aspx

Comment by Apostate
2012-08-16 03:29:08

“Real Estate’s 25 Most Influential Thought Leaders - 2006 ”

Sounds ominous.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-08-15 23:39:04

This is awesome.

Mitt, are you paying attention? Because if you really want to be President, this may be your last best chance. Forget about the investment bankers who have given you so much money, and just do the right thing for your community, your Church, and your Country. The Nation will elect you and history will thank you for it.

Oh, and while you are at it, lose the banking prostitute advisors.

ft dot com
August 15, 2012 10:00 pm
Donor urges Romney shift on banks
By Matthew Garrahan in Los Angeles and Richard McGregor in Dubuque, Iowa

Paul Singer, the billionaire hedge fund manager who is one of the Republican party’s most influential donors, is pressing Mitt Romney, presidential candidate, to make the case for tougher bank regulation that would go beyond the Dodd-Frank law.

Mr Singer, the chairman of Elliott Associates, recently sent copies of his quarterly investor letter to Romney officials, laying out the need for tighter regulation. The letter, which he distributes to investors and policy makers across the political spectrum, says Dodd-Frank is “ill-conceived” and could cause a financial “black hole”.

In place of Dodd-Frank Mr Singer wants more stringent capital requirements and a regulatory framework that forces big banks to be more transparent about liabilities and off-balance sheet instruments. “Conservatives who believe in free markets should also believe in sound fair markets,” Mr Singer told the FT.

Private reward and public risk is not what conservatives should want.”

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-16 07:28:51

Wish I’d bought me some of that FB at $38.

Remember when FB meant a person that bought real estate at the top of the bubble?

 
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