Bits Bucket for August 19, 2012
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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not long ago peter schiff said one way one ‘might’ profit from inflation (in fairness, he said it wasn’t the best way), is by taking out a loan now (say for a house) and paying it back in inflated dollars. i’d like to warn you against trying this.
first, schiff thinks monetary inflation causes price inflation.. it doesn’t have to. there can be an increase in the number of dollars, without those dollars losing value. schiff really doesn’t understand inflation.
second, even if those dollars lose value, it doesn’t mean that you’ll be able to earn more of those less valuable dollars, to pay off the loan. most often, you won’t.
if you follow his advice, you might wind up not being able to make your payments. price inflation would mean that you’d be paying more for everything, which would mean that your mortgage payments would be harder to make, even though they remained the same in nominal dollars. it would mean that you’d have less discretionary income. and that could happen even if you get a raise, if prices climb high enough.
schiff is asuming that higher prices brings higher wages. but most often, it is rising wages that leads price inflation. and it’s not easy to get higher wages during economic hard times.
i advise against schiff’s advice. i say, don’t take out a loan now, in hopes of paying it off with less valuable dollars. instead, try to keep your debt low.
schiff is a very good economist, but there are still some holes in his game. i told him the euro was going to fail before the dollar. he didn’t believe me then, but has since softened his position a little on that. of course now it’s pretty easy to see what’s coming. but i was warning about the euro over three years ago when most people didn’t believe it would fail. you can’t trust 90% of today’s economists. they’re all so steeped in harvard keynesianism that they can’t see what’s coming. even schiff has a tiny bit of keynesianism in him. he’d never believe it though. as a matter of fact, he’d probably get fighting mad if anyone told him that.
remember, stay out of debt. big trouble is on the way. they’re already taking their own lives in greece. it could get that bad here too.
remember, stay out of debt. big trouble is on the way. they’re already taking their own lives in greece. it could get that bad here too.
I know of at least two deaths by suicide that relate to the bad economic times in this country. And I think that slow times in his auto repair business may have also contributed to the non-suicide death of a friend.
Let’s look out for each other, people. Sometimes, a caring friend can really make the difference.
“Let’s look out for each other, people.”
And spend some time in looking out for yourself while you are at it.
Watch out for snakes wearing suits, wolves in sheep’s clothing, etc.
Build up more cash on the way to the cliff and stay out of debt. That includes being mortgage-free and where property taxes are low.
And if you have a good paying job then keep it. Ignore retirement enticements; Especially now, in this era of underfunded pensions.
TJ, Combo and Bill…… you all speak with clarity of mind.
Carry on brothers.
Cash is king; free cash flow is emperor!
Plant an apple tree.
And a blueberry bush!
I’m always partial to a flaming bush that matches the curtains.
Is it edible?
Chocolate-covered p00ntang - I bet a lot of people sign up for that edible portion!
Let’s look out for each other, people
Commie talk!
American exceptionalist, invisible hand of free market, bootstrappers don’t believe in “from each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs.”
It’s ME ME ME! I got mine and f* the rest of you! LOOSERS!
Oops, gotta run. They’re finally calling our table at Applebee’s!
It’s ME ME ME! I got mine and f* the rest of you ??
I witnessed a little bit of that a day or to ago when the double R’s rally in the retirement community of the villages in Florida…
No one should ever take their own life over money. file bankruptcy and move to another place and start a new life. Stuff happens in life and you just need not panic.
Exactly, dude.
This assumes that the person is thinking clearly at the time.
However, chances are that they are not.
When you’re in that negative mental space, a lot of poor decisions are made.
“When you’re in that negative mental space, a lot of poor decisions are made.”
Seems to me that a lot of poor decisions were made under happier times when everyone thought they were thinking clearly like when they bought a house or two or three during the bubble. The bottom line is that decisions have consequences and most people forget that in the decision making process but claim foul and victimization when the consequences turn out negative and claim genius when their stupidity is rewarded.
The roots of existence in negative mental space are found in poor decisions made under happy times.
The roots of existence in negative mental space are found in poor decisions made under happy times.
Agreed for most of the population most of the time.
There are also some depressive, etc. unfortunates, you know but they are a smaller fraction.
I wouldn’t underestimate brain chemistry.
Also, there are a large number of people who don’t have basic financial or educational skills because their parents don’t have them either!
you just need not panic….
For some of us that makes sense. For others, it requires an admission that their whole lifestyle was an actual fraud.
No one should ever take their own life over money. file bankruptcy and move to another place and start a new life. Stuff happens in life and you just need not panic.
i was thinking of an elderly couple in greece when i wrote this.
they had no money to move anywhere. and even if they did, the conditions were similar in most of the country. there simply was no food available according to that article, or they had no means to get it. their currency value is dropping like a stone. they really had no hope.
the story goes that they held hands as they jumped off a building.
It was a son and mother actually.
It was a son and mother actually.
ok, thank you for the correction.
It’s tragic.
However, if you read his note, he was a musician (an ultimately tenuous profession if there ever was one!), and he “didn’t realize that he should’ve saved more money.”
He was 60. His mother was 90 with Alzheimer’s.
The whole thing is a terrible terrible mess. A movie coming to a theater near you!
The US is a vastly richer country and has somewhat of a social net but it’s really really clear that most people haven’t saved anything near what they will be needing.
Reading the Federal Reserve’s “Survey of Consumer Finances” beats Beckett and Kafka in sheer depression and terror.
Boy, I’m a bundle of joy this bright and cheery Sunday, amd I not? I need to eat some tomatoes.
Wasn’t it Mark Twain who squandered most of his money, filed bankruptcy and then went into hibernation to write his way back into solvency and pay off all his debt discharged in BK? Says something about character then and now!
He ran away to Europe for 9 years to escape his creditors.
Yep, it does say something about character then and now.
Exactly the same human nature that ever was and ever will be!
The US is a vastly richer country
we used to be. but we’re running on borrowed money now, and that means we’re poor. sooner or later, in one way or another, the piper has to be paid.
and has somewhat of a social net but it’s really really clear that most people haven’t saved anything near what they will be needing.
that’s because we were promised that the government would take care of us. (and they did, just like they ‘took care’ of JFK.)
we used to be. but we’re running on borrowed money now
No, still is. We’re selling it off piecemeal but still is. The productivity here is still off the charts.
Anyway, the creditors are gonna get stiffed. And it’s always the creditor country that gets into the deepest depression because:
(a) they tailored their means of production for the benefits of debtors, and
(b) their savings just got poofed away.
That’s why the US has GD1. Most debtors recovered quite quickly and on favorable terms too.
“I need to eat some tomatoes.”
On that thought, I am making some guacamole dip post haste.
I hope to die of a surfeit of tomatoes!
Maybe some future day Walter Savage Landor will memorialize me like Rose Aylmer who died at 18 of a surfeit of pineapples!
The productivity here is still off the charts.
doesn’t matter. if you spend more than you produce, you’re broke, not rich.
if you spend more than you produce, you’re broke, not rich.
Once again, no. You’re not broke. Not just yet. You will be but not quite yet.
If you spend more than you produce, you are spending past accumulated riches.
That’s where we’re at.
Once again, no. You’re not broke. Not just yet. You will be but not quite yet.
If you spend more than you produce, you are spending past accumulated riches.
i agree in principle. but i think we’ve spent far, far more than we have ever produced. of course we borrowed to do the spending. the 15 trillion in debt is just the tip of the iceberg. some estimate that there is 150 trillion in unfunded liabilities. and just because they’re unfunded, doesn’t mean that we don’t have to pay them back. i don’t think the cumulative years of production come close to the total debt we’ve stacked up. we still agree in principle though.
i agree in principle. but i think we’ve spent far, far more than we have ever produced.
I think people underestimate how much we’ve produced in the last 100 years or so.
Carl, look at this chart. the blue is what we’ve sold. the red is what we’ve spent. and this doesn’t include the unfunded liabilities. the only thing that can be sold is production.
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1860_2010USb_13s1li0181366_643cs_F1fF0f
after looking at the chart, do you still think we’re underestimating how much we’ve produced?
I’m not sure what we’re looking at there, but I don’t think the blue is the total GDP produced. It looks to me like it might be the total tax receipts or something like that.
when i started working on the graph, it said ‘us gdp’ (blue), when i tried to overlay total government spending (red) the header changed and i didn’t notice it before i posted the link. i’m not going to take the time to see what happened. i still believe we’ve spent more than we’ve produced, but i can’t prove it with that chart. good catch.
It’s easy to say someone should not take their life due to economic distress while you have a job and money. I bet it’s quite different to live through it. I try to imagine having no family, no job, homeless with nothing at all, and getting up off the ground. I like to think I could and would, but it’s hard to be sure. What if nobody will hire you? I could NOT live in a homeless shelter long. The people alone would drive me insane. Some cold blue steel would come in handy under such dire circumstances, I’m afraid. I hope to never, ever experience such hardship, but I suppose it’s a possibility for anyone who doesn’t have enough money to retire.
PS- At today’s prices, savings get eaten up in the blink of an eye. Seen the melt-up in crude oil? $4+ per gallon gas, and skyrocketing (I’m starting to hate the word) food and rents are hammering people.
Schiff was long the euro as well…great job at calling the housing bubble…but some of his other advice fell short.
Schiff was long the euro as well
i didn’t know he was actually long the euro. i thought he was out of that too. i thought he didn’t like the euro, but still thought it was better than the dollar. (he’s being proven wrong on that one)
I think his point was at least they are trying to do something in Europe. On the other hand, the US parties like nothing ever happened.
I haven’t listened to him last 2 years. His blind trust in Chinese government economic data and his constant barrage about PM did it for me. I give him a credit for opening my eyes in 2006/07 time frame. He used to be the only sane voice in some TV shows. Actually other guests used mock him and laugh at him constantly.
I think his point was at least they are trying to do something in Europe.
Are they? You’d could’ve fooled me.
They’re desperately trying to protect German and French banks, that’s all.
Greece is as close to a failed state as any I’ve seen. And Brazil and Argentina in the 80’s were plenty bad!
I haven’t listened to him last 2 years. His blind trust in Chinese government economic data and his constant barrage about PM did it for me. I give him a credit for opening my eyes in 2006/07 time frame. He used to be the only sane voice in some TV shows. Actually other guests used mock him and laugh at him constantly.
yes the did, and still i listen to him all the time. he’s fun to listen to because he has an opinion on everything, and he’s honest. and even though his understanding of economics isn’t perfect, he still has a very good understanding. he gets most things right.
his biggest problem is that he doesn’t understand the way money works in a fiat currency.
Let’s look out for each other, people. Sometimes, a caring friend can really make the difference.
unfortunately, if we have a total collapse, very few of us will even be able to take care of ourselves, much less anyone else. in that case, we’ll get what the madmen want, a drastic reduction in the human population. we don’t have to have a total collapse, but we could, if we don’t correct this mess.
Sometimes, a caring friend can really make the difference ??
empathy is omnipotent….
Unless you are being sarcastic, I beg to differ.
I’m experiencing a bit of empathy fatigue at least as far as the state of affairs is concerned.
I did my level best to warn all and sundry. Many listened but equally many did not.
I no longer feel any overwhelming need to save those with self-destructive tendencies. Even with the ones that listened, there’s a lot of denial about how their fairly poor decision-making put them in the position where they are.
It’s “shoot the messenger”-time at least as far as the FPSS is concerned. There’s a level of anger directed at me as if I’d caused this mess. Also, the fact that we’re coming out of this relatively in good shape is being looked upon as “luck” rather than what it really was. There’s a serious level of resentment.
To be honest, I’m totally sick of it.
Empathy can go to Greece as far as I’m concerned!
“empathy is omnipotent….” just another word for feelings and feelings are not always anywhere near reality. Empathy brings up the old saw ‘misery loves company’ and for most people who want you to assuage their misery don’t want it delivered with a dose of reality. Best to stand back and wait until they are ready to move on.
empathy |ˈempəTHē|
noun
the ability to understand and share the feelings of another…
To be honest, I’m totally sick of it.
Empathy can go to Greece as far as I’m concerned ??
Fair enough….I will choose the alternative….
I will choose the alternative….
Empathy can go to Spain instead?!?
LOL….
“Also, the fact that we’re coming out of this relatively in good shape is being looked upon as “luck” rather than what it really was.”
There is always a measure of luck involved. Luck that you were born into favorable circumstances. Luck that your talents and inclinations lead you into the career path that has given you the potential for a good income. Luck that you were not derailed by accident or illness. I know someone who had idiopathic kidney failure at 23. Decision making was not a factor. It was unpredictable, uncontrollable, and life changing.
In any success, there is also always a measure of hard work and good decision making. Luck only takes you so far. But don’t discount it.
“I no longer feel any overwhelming need to save those with self-destructive tendencies.”
Sometimes, you have to let go. People who have addicted family members can take many years and many attempts at salvation to get to that point.
There is always a measure of luck involved.
Yes, there is always luck involved in life.
However, there was absolutely no luck involved in avoiding the housing fiasco. The data was there for anyone to see.
Still is.
“However, there was absolutely no luck involved in avoiding the housing fiasco. The data was there for anyone to see.”
I know of two kinds of people for whom I would say this is not true. The first are the Casey Serin types - young and inexperienced, easily taken in by hypesters. Timing worked against them, which is a kind of luck. They had not had time to get the experience that would have protected them. Casey is an extreme example, but I know of others who were in the mortgage field who thought it would go on forever. They thought $5K per month was normal.
The second are those who moved into a boom area from far away. I know a man who moved from Europe and bought at the top. He lacked the historical knowledge of the local area. The warning signs were there, but he missed them. There is only so much that you can pay attention to at any one time. Getting settled in a new country and a new job, along with figuring out schools for the kids was probably as much as could be managed. And he was of an age to have missed previous busts. Housing only goes up was his experience.
The bubble was there for all to see. The extent of the securitization was pretty well hidden.
They thought $5K per month was normal.
Really?!?
$5K a month is normal.
The second are those who moved into a boom area from far away. I know a man who moved from Europe and bought at the top.
Why did he buy? Why not rent till you figure out a given area?
After all, RE is local, right?
He bought because he was betting that it was a “no-brainer”. RE only goes up and all that.
That’s still not luck. That’s downright idiocy, lunacy and bankruptcy!
Did he run a simple spreadsheet of rents v/s incomes and/or prices?
Did he? Or did he just stick it all on black and hope for the best?
Still not luck in my book.
I know a man who moved from Europe
I’ll bet you any amount of money he’s English. I’ll bet you dollars to donuts that he’s English.
This is such an ol’-fashioned English scam that there are books written about it in the 19th century.
The English were obsessed with this notion of ownership. If anything, they leave the Americans behind in obsession. That and the garden. The freakin’ garden.
Whatever.
Ben, our ringmaster here, has a precurser in the early 19th century. I just can’t remember his name. It’ll occur to me when I don’t think about it. He wrote a book which disappeared down the hole of history as these things tend to do.
“I’ll bet you dollars to donuts that he’s English.”
x eleventybillion
“$5K a month is normal.”
Not for high school graduates with no experience.
I agree with the basic premise that printing dollars does not necessarily cause rising wages. A quick look at the Z1 shows we’ve increased the number of dollars 10x over the last 30 years, while inflation has only doubled prices. The vast majority of those new dollars are not chasing goods and services, but rather are being used to buy up “safe” investments like government bonds or being put in other insured accounts.
What you are ignoring is the the near risk free nature that remains in buying a house.
If you could buy a $200k house with 3% down, and let’s say the potential upside is 100%, then you are putting $6K down for a potential gain of $200K.
So, even if the odds of high wage inflation is low, are the odds less than 1 in 33?
Heads, you win. Tails, you walk from the house. If you are in a recourse state or get hit with a big forgiven debt tax, you just go bankrupt.
Housing is still an effective means of gambling with other peoples’ money as long as the government continues to provide programs where you can buy with 3% down.
What you are ignoring is the the near risk free nature that remains in buying a house.
i don’t think it’s nearly risk free at all.
Heads, you win. Tails, you walk from the house.
most people want to avoid being in a position where they have to walk away from their house.
Housing is still an effective means of gambling with other peoples’ money as long as the government continues to provide programs where you can buy with 3% down.
doesn’t 3% down automatically tell you that you’re paying too much? what happens to your equity when interest rates start to rise? (i know, you walk)
Heads, you win. Tails, you walk from the house.
Yep, the poorer you are, the better it is to “gamble”.
That’s always the case. Meanwhile, the smart set is extracting excess free cash flow from this set while dangling the carrot of (illusionary) future capital gains.
Maybe they’ll change the bankruptcy code just like they did with student loans. And that was made retroactive! They even garnish SS to pay for it.
Then what will the po’ people do, eh?
“Then what will the po’ people do, eh?”
Find another way to gamble?
Find another way to gamble?
Yeah, ask any white kid recently that recently went to lawschool.
Particularly, to one of the third-tier to1let’s as they are now called.
45,000 graduated annually with roughly 20-22,000 positions. Lots of debt. No bankruptcy.
The trap’s been sprung and the child is now hamburger meat.
First-world poverty burger. I’ll take mine rare with a side of former affluence.
Then what will the po’ people do, eh?
Eat the rich?
Eat the rich?
Unlikely, sweetheart.
That’s what food stamps are for.
And the notion that hope springs eternal. And cute little Horatio Alger stories. And happy Hollywood endings.
One should never make a categorical bet but if there was one, it would be that the American public is so unreally brainwashed that they will be sheep till they day I die, and probably longer!
I guess chocolate-covered poontang is acceptable, but Motorhead lyrics aren’t.
Don’t want to frighten the 1%ers, I guess.
“you are ignoring is the the near risk free nature that remains in buying a house.”
Darryl You Liar,
Housing prices are falling.
“…near risk free…”
Tell that to my coworker, who thought last summer (doubtless based on a Zestimate©) that the family home would sell for $1.8M. Since dropping the price twice, in $200K increments, the Dutch auction has still produced no sale.
Try not to catch yerself a falling knife!
I think this view only makes sense if you have a multiple of the cash needed to repay the loan in the form of other investments.
A loan (non-recourse in many cases) with a rate fixed for 30 years at less than 4% is the cheapest debt we may ever obtain. If there is EVER a logic to borrow money that you don’t need, it’s now.
A gentleman I know recently did this, with the same logic. His problem was that he didn’t have an income though, and despite being able to show bankers a bank statement with cash many times more than his proposed loan, he had to go to three banks to find a willing lender.
I think this view only makes sense if you have a multiple of the cash needed to repay the loan in the form of other investments.
i don’t think it makes sense even then. a rise in interest rates would most surely put you underwater again. and if you had a multiple of the cash needed, and you thought inflation was coming, wouldn’t precious metals be a better investment?
“…a rise in interest rates would most surely put you underwater again…”
Since interest rates are destined to remain at record lows from now on, your point is moot.
Since interest rates are destined to remain at record lows from now on, your point is moot.
when nearly everyone refuses to buy Tpaper, rates will have to go up or the currency will be destroyed. the dollar would become the world’s hottest potato.
“…when nearly everyone refuses to buy Tpaper,…”
That’s when QE3 happens…
That’s when QE3 happens…
some people claim it already has happened. others say the FED won’t be able to do it. i’m in the dark when it comes to the FED.
i’ve tried to find a book that would show how the machinery of the FED works, but i haven’t found any author that’s trustworthy. they keep everything secret and it’s been said that even the bernank doesn’t really understand how the FED works.
understanding exactly how the FED works isn’t essential to understanding economics, but it would deepen the understanding how much it effects our economy.
i understand how the various currencies work, both fiat and those intrinsically valued. but it would be nice to know under what circumstances dollars are brought into the system. they don’t get printed and thrown into the economy like so many people believe. there’s a process that makes it legit. but how can we tell if the legit process is always being followed? how do we know that something more nefarious than just ‘targeting rates’ isn’t going on? the FED is opaque (to me), and that is a problem.
“…i’ve tried to find a book that would show how the machinery of the FED works,…”
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i don’t want a stupid conspiracy book on how the FED runs the country. if i wanted something like that, i’d buy ‘the creature from jekyll island’. the guy who wrote it is a liar. what i want is a book that explains the inner workings of the FED.
i know a guy that used to actually work for the FED before the keynesians took over. he claim’s he’s the last of the few who understands the FED. and that when he’s gone, no one is left that can explain it. i asked him if there were any books that i could read on it. he emphatically claimed NO! they don’t talk about what they do. he’s been honest with me about many other things, and he’s not a conspiracy guy. i don’t think he’s lying to me.
schiff thinks he understands the FED. i don’t think he really does. schiff doesn’t understand fiat currencies. how can he understand the FED?
understanding exactly how the FED works isn’t essential to understanding economics,
The FED “prints money” printing money is tantamount to raising taxes albeit with fewer political hurdles but all the implications.
We elect a govt to make tax policy but their policy is “adjusted” but he FEDs actions.
The FED “prints money” printing money is tantamount to raising taxes albeit with fewer political hurdles but all the implications.
hi Charlie,
technically, it’s the treasury that prints money through the FED. but that’s just nitpicking. the question is, under what criteria is the money printed?
you and i can go get a loan at a local bank. but we can’t go to the central bank of the FED to get a loan. so they’re insulated on what they do.
plus, it’s almost creepy to think that even the brilliant bernank might not fully understand what’s going on.
i’m not on the ‘end the FED’ bandwagon. at least not yet. yes, there are scoundrels in charge right now. but that doesn’t mean that the institution itself is bad. even if it was never run correctly in the first place, it still could be.
The FED “prints money” printing money is tantamount to raising taxes albeit with fewer political hurdles but all the implications.
one more thing. i know that this is what schiff always says. but this is the area he contradicts himself. as i said in my first post today, increasing the number of dollars doesn’t mean that dollars will be worth less. they could be worth more. the value of money isn’t static. it changes. when the dollar’s value rises, we get price deflation, and visa versa.
“…the value of money isn’t static. it changes. when the dollar’s value rises, we get price deflation, and visa versa.”
For instance, a wave of panic across the pond can drive a flight to quality move into dollars and Treasurys which increases the exchange value of the dollar and pushes down Treasury yields.
And there is no reason to believe the Eurozone is yet out of the woods. The current wave of complacency in global financial markets is likely to morph into another wave of panic, after denial once again yields to realism.
Euro Watch
No Longer Stagnating, Euro Zone Contracts
By JACK EWING
Published: August 14, 2012
FRANKFURT — The economy in the euro zone officially shifted to contraction from stagnation in the second quarter of 2012, data showed on Tuesday, portending a recession for the region later in the year that would put even more pressure on political leaders struggling to keep the common currency intact.
Gross domestic product from April through June fell 0.2 percent from the previous quarter for the 17 countries that use the euro, according to preliminary estimates by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics agency. In the previous quarter, growth was zero.
Economists said the decline in output, caused partly by government budget cutting, meant the euro zone was likely to enter recession, broadly defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking output. Even the German economy, which has helped compensate for weakness in Italy and Spain, seemed to be losing momentum.
“Growth of the German economy was no longer strong enough to keep the total euro zone economy above the zero line,” Christoph Weil, an economist at Commerzbank, wrote in a note to clients.
The newest data added to the challenges facing euro zone leaders as they return from vacation and again confront the debt crisis. Slower growth almost automatically translates into lower tax receipts, because people lose their jobs and companies earn less profit. That, in turn, puts even more stress on government budgets.
Germany did grow more than expected from April through June, expanding 0.3 percent, according to Eurostat. In addition, France avoided a downturn with a third consecutive quarter of zero growth. Economists had predicted that France would sink into negative territory.
But this modest encouraging news was outweighed by data suggesting that the German economy would slow later in the year and might even decline. The German Federal Statistical Office said growth in the quarter was driven by exports and consumer spending, while investment by business fell.
Surveys like the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment, which fell Tuesday to its lowest level of the year, showed that German manufacturers were worried over how the euro zone crisis might play out. As a result, they were hesitant to buy new equipment.
Slower growth in the rest of the world has also hurt demand for exports from Germany and other European countries like Finland, where growth fell 1 percent.
Italy and Spain, which have the third- and fourth-largest economies in the euro zone, after Germany and France, remained mired in recession. The Italian economy shrank 0.7 percent, while Spain declined 0.4 percent. Neither country has had economic growth for more than a year.
Inevitably, Germany is being affected by slack demand from the rest of the euro zone, which remains its biggest market. In the first quarter of 2012, the German economy grew 0.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2011.
The Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, has predicted modest growth during the rest of 2012, but some economists disagree. Recent figures have shown a decline in German industrial production and in new factory orders, indicating a further weakening of growth.
In a note to clients, Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at the Dutch bank ING, said investors should not be “carried away” by the seeming invulnerability of the German economy. “A further slowdown of the economy dozes under the surface of today’s strong numbers,” he said.
Poor economic performance by Spain and Italy could further shake investors’ confidence in their creditworthiness, causing their borrowing costs to rise.
…
And there is no reason to believe the Eurozone is yet out of the woods.
the euro was a mistake. they can even prune the number of countries in it, to the two strongest, and it will still eventually fail. only a sovereign nation can have a successful fiat currency.
it’s possible for countries to share a currency. but only one country can be the issuer. it can’t be a ‘blend’ of countries.
Underwater? That’s where non-recourse comes into play.
If someone is buying a home, they should do it INDEPENDENT of where debt markets are. Buy a house because you want to live there.
Then it comes down to how it is financed.
The guy I’m speaking about was going to buy the house regardless. So, the question is, do you borrow $ at less than 4%, fixed for 30? Or use some of your cash?
He borrowed. For all I know, he may have invested some of what he borrowed in precious metals.
“they’re already taking their own lives in greece. it could get that bad here too.”
To late. It’s been happening here for quite some time.
Well, it’s early morning here in Tucson. First light’s peaking over the eastern horizon, and I’m rockin’ out with the early morning Gospel programming on my beloved community radio station, KXCI.
Speaking of KXCI, I’ll be on the air later today It’s an hour of blues by women, starting at 5 p.m. MST/8 p.m. EDT. And oh, yes, you can listen online.
I love black gospel music.
I love black people who play accordions kick azz funk dance ones…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zBkHpOSHAA
I love black people who play accordions
All three of them!
actually there are probably hundreds…making new music everyday
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8tneYF1LSg
Here is another one…it will never get played on mainstream stations why…he’s normal…and soaring guitar solos…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEES_vM3lbY
College
LSU Eunice
Class of 2013 · Nursing · Eunice, Louisiana
Full Sail University
Class of Full Sail University 2013 · Winter Park, Florida
High School
Eunice High School
Class of 2008 · Eunice, Louisiana
Interesting. The music is…well…something a teenager or very young adult would write, both musically and lyrically. But I’m impressed by the guitar work. Somebody needs to hire him to tour as a guitarist and backup vocals and give him a few years to season his songwriting. Definitely potential.
actually there are probably hundreds
Are you sure? Seems like it’s the same guy (Tank) in two of your three videos. So you’ve shown us two black accordion players.
Maybe my guess of three was an overestimation…
You see alpha…no ghetto, they are the most discriminated people in America….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BgDzX3C4WzY
Its truly radical and scary to have black and white people dancing together.
We are in a very racially divided country and Ohbewaana had made it far worse with the trayvon debacle…
Zimmerman would have shot one of your accordion players, too, if they had walked through his neighborhood.
Slim, if you don’t mind, tell the lady that she did a great job this morning.
Will do! She’s one of my biggest supporters at the station. It’s a real joy to be associated with someone like her.
The Washington, D.C. Bubble by Robert Tracinski
What Mr. Chait doesn’t realize is that he has stumbled across one of the central arguments against big government and the welfare state: the fact that big government tends to become its own entrenched interest, responding to the special pleading of its lobbyists and hangers-on, without being able or willing to respond to all of the needs and priorities of the millions of individuals outside the capital.
Surely, he must be aware that there is a whole school of free-market economics which regards all of this as a waste of money and a way of making the economy worse. If he doesn’t know that, Arthur Laffer reminds him in the Wall Street Journal by making the case that everywhere it has been implemented, government “stimulus” has actually slowed down the economy. But this is outside the Keynesian mainstream and can simply be dismissed as an argument not worth taking seriously.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/08/16/the_washington_dc_bubble_115129.html
A few weeks back we had an article with a table on how the governments with the highest percentage of stimulus also had the greatest reduction in GDP. When will the DC crowd start considering the results of their generosity? I know, probably never since they all get to feed at the trough of the government treasure.
“… the fact that big government tends to become its own entrenched interest …”
If a problem exists that needs to be solved and you hire a bunch of people to solve it then it is in the best interest of the problem solvers to never solve the problem because if they were to solve the problem then they would be throwing themselves out of a job.
So the problem tends to get milked rather than solved.
So the problem tends to get milked rather than solved ??
Does not even need to be a problem…It can also be a service…Takes me three to four months to get a building permit…..
What, you mean “more research is needed?”
the fact that big government tends to become its own entrenched interest, responding to the special pleading of its lobbyists and hangers-on, without being able or willing to respond to all of the needs and priorities of the millions of individuals outside the capital.
I also believe the war is a function and motive of a such a big government not of a small government.
National defense is an example of a problem that never gets solved, hence it gets milked.
Global warming is a good one too.
War on drugs, illegal immigration, terrorism…
In addition …
If the people who are hired to define a problem are the same people who are hired to solve the problem then these people end up having a lock on their jobs.
If the Defense Department is the only department that can determine what the threats are to our country - and they are able to keep this info secret from the rest of us - and at the same time they are given wide latitude to try to solve the problem regarding these threats then they have a secure lock on their jobs.
hence it gets milked ??
As big as any social program that we provide…And wasteful I might ad…Tell me again what is it in return that we got from the trillion or so spent in Iraq other than military jobs & contracts ??
Trust but verify.
Oh, wait. I can’t verify because everything is a secret.
So the only thing I am left with is trust.
It is going to be interesting watching the Republicans call for more stimulus after they have run against the Democrats for the last 4 years on a platform that stimulus doesn’t work.
If I were the head of the DNC, I would block any attempt to fix the “fiscal cliff” and throw ALL my elections. Let the Republicans win everything, and intentionally let all the stimulus end.
Heck, I’d even cave in to the Republicans call for cap, cut and balance….
Slice $1.5T our of government spending, and let’s see the Republican lies revealed for what they are.
Because the fundamental truth is obvious to anyone that wants to see it. Stimulus was passed in Feb 2009 and by Apr was being implemented…. The results speak for themselves, to ANYONE that wants to pull their head out of their arse long enough to listen.
http://craigconnects.org/2010/02/rate-of-job-loss-bush-v-obama.html
I think if Jay Leno can agree to budget cuts, even cutting his own pay in the process, I think our members of CONgress and the Executive branch and SCOTUS should do the same. After all, Jay Leno at least provides some laughs for people. The Feds, on the other hand, provide bombs and poverty and bend over the citizens to any foreign interest that captures their fancy.
Austerity for CONgress!!!!! And please, eliminate HUD. We can sooo live without that agency.
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-lenocuts-20120818,0,1772989.story
I’m not condemning the entire Fedgov, btw. Just the boobs in Congress and Exec, mainly. There’s actually lots of decent people in government, they’re just messed up by their less decent colleagues.
Stupid people need representation also
I’m duly impressed that a few independent voices in the MSM have spoken out against the Treasury Department’s full-court press in favor of principal reductions on GSE mortgage debt.
EDITORIAL
Easy money: Government principal reductions a bad idea
Posted: Aug. 13, 2012 | 1:59 a.m.
Rejecting the entreaties of the Obama administration, the independent federal agency that administers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac said Tuesday it will not let mortgage companies offer debt forgiveness to borrowers.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency is charged by Congress with minimizing the cost of bailing out Fannie and Freddie, which were seized by the government in 2008 to preserve their role as the primary source of financing for new mortgage loans.
The FHFA spent months studying to what extent some half-million homeowners could benefit from such a program - of whom a good number are here in Nevada, arguably the state worst hit by the housing crash. The agency acknowledged many aid recipients would be more likely to continue making mortgage payments if their debts were partially forgiven.
But the agency’s acting director, Edward J. DeMarco, said Tuesday the benefits most likely would be too small to offset potential costs, including the risk that some borrowers would stop making payments in pursuit of a better deal. Offering debt forgiveness “would not make a meaningful improvement in reducing foreclosures in a cost-effective way for taxpayers,” Mr. DeMarco ruled.
The decision infuriated congressional Democrats. But it’s the correct call.
…
‘As part of its plan to “wind down” mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the U.S. Treasury Department is changing the terms of the capital support agreement that kept the two afloat in the first place. ‘We see this as a positive for housing, as it ensures that Fannie and Freddie will remain in business,” writes Jaret Seiberg of Guggenheim Partners. “Absent Fannie and Freddie, we believe housing finance will become more expensive and less available.”
‘Seiberg also notes that this is a positive for private mortgage insurers because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require such insurance when a borrower puts down less than 20 percent in equity on a loan. Without Fannie and Freddie, the private insurers would lose a lot of business.’
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wind-down-mortgage-giants-positive-173658996.html
Well, we wouldn’t want anyone in the finance world to ‘lose business’. And if the govt wasn’t in there backing loans with less than 20% down, we may not have even had a housing bubble, nor would we be facing millions more in defaults. And this is all beside the pesky little fact that we have to pay huge amounts of our lives earnings to lenders for the privileged of ‘owning’ a house.
All pretense of the GSE’s existing for affordable housing have been long forgotten. Now, they exist for exactly the opposite.
Maybe the politicians can conjure up an policy that keeps college prices high. Oh yeah, they already do that.
Absent Fannie and Freddie, we believe housing finance will become more expensive and less available.
It’s weird that most other countries in the world manage to have ample cheap credit without a Fannie or a Freddie.
It’s weird that most other countries in the world manage to have ample cheap credit without a Fannie or a Freddie.
And housing bubbles even bigger than ours.
A friend of mine lives in Spain. His mortgage is highly complex, with interest rate based on the Japanese rates…makes our mortgage market seem downright simple.
What they don’t have though is much in the way of 30-year fixed rate debt.
“as it ensures that Fannie and Freddie will remain in business”
‘A software engineer in my Facebook community wrote recently about his outrage that when he visited Disneyland, and went on a ride, the theme park offered him the photo of himself and his girlfriend to buy – with his credit card information already linked to it. He noted that he had never entered his name or information into anything at the theme park, or indicated that he wanted a photo, or alerted the humans at the ride to who he and his girlfriend were – so, he said, based on his professional experience, the system had to be using facial recognition technology. He had never signed an agreement allowing them to do so, and he declared that this use was illegal. He also claimed that Disney had recently shared data from facial-recognition technology with the United States military. Yes, I know: it sounds like a paranoid rant. Except that it turned out to be true…Disney sites are indeed controlled by face-recognition technology, that the military is interested in the technology, and that the face-recognition contractor, Identix, has contracts with the US government – for technology that identifies individuals in a crowd.’
‘Fast forward: after the Occupy crackdowns, I noted that odd-looking CCTVs had started to appear, attached to lampposts, in public venues in Manhattan where the small but unbowed remnants of Occupy congregated: there was one in Union Square, right in front of their encampment. I reported here on my experience of witnessing a white van marked “Indiana Energy” that was lifting workers up to the lampposts all around Union Square, and installing a type of camera. When I asked the workers what was happening – and why an Indiana company was dealing with New York City civic infrastructure, which would certainly raise questions – I was told: “I’m a contractor. Talk to ConEd.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/aug/15/new-totalitarianism-surveillance-technology
The article mentions this website:
‘Biometric companies see government as the driver of future market growth…both the biometric companies and analysts are looking at government spending driving the marketplace in the short term with no real expectation for private industry to push growth very soon.’
http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/biometric-companies-see-government-driver-future-market-growth
How can anyone stop this trend towards “Big Brother is watching you“? Or is it “in the bag” regardless of the fading notions of the rights to privacy and peaceful protest?
Pandora’s Box of technology has been opened. Like Nuclear Proliferation, there is no stopping it, only delaying the inevitable.
I agree Northeastener…..And its going to accelerate….
They track you with your cell phone GPS, credit card trails,etc. Facial recognition technology now? That pirate theme shop may make a comeback: http://www.kenniederbaumer.com/fx/Images/40.jpg
Arr Mattie…
Conspiracy theories everywhere… I heard about this book from an interview on CNBC’s Kudlow Report. Makes for an interesting premise.
“Spreading the Wealth: How Obama is Robbing the Suburbs to Pay for the Cities” by Stanley Kurtz
The socialists blame urban poverty on “white flight” to the suburbs. Many of the jobs went with them. Now, the attempt per the trial Minneapolis regionalization tax plan, is to tax suburbs and redistribute the money to the poorer urban areas. Additionally, the plan calls for strict regulation of development in the suburbs, forcing new development [and the money that goes with it] into urban areas.
Is this an election year scare tactic? Maybe. But there is some truth in every lie, and I wouldn’t put it past the socialists in this country to pursue a plan like this.
I know nothing about you, so the answer to this may be obvious. Are you a “concern troll”? A concern troll is someone who pretends to be on the same page or of the same opinion as others, to gain greater credibility among those they would like to convince, but then throws in some doubts and concerns, reflecting their actual viewpoint, such as:
“Conspiracy theories everywhere…
Is this an election year scare tactic? Maybe. But there is some truth in every lie, and I wouldn’t put it past the socialists in this country to pursue a plan like this.”
I know nothing about you, so the answer to this may be obvious. Are you a “concern troll”?
Are you a liberal trying to attack a moderate-leaning post with potential anti-Obama repercussions in an election year? It’s funny how the extreme left [and extreme right] will attempt to polarize the middle at any hint of a disparaging debate about their party candidates.
I mentioned it because it has conspiracy theory and scare tactic overtones [Obama will destroy the suburbs!] in an election year. I leave it up to the reader to decide if there is any truth to it. I have my own opinion, and anyone who has read my posts in the past should be able to figure out what that is…
whaaaaaaa? I just asked if you are a concern troll. Was not “trying to attack” anything. I am fascinated with trolls and how trolling works, and I noticed that your post contains the formula of a concern troll, so I asked you about it.
I got a pretty defensive answer rather than any discussion about trolling. I have not read your posts in the past but I can figure out what your opinion is from the post we are discussing.
The concern troll also issued a non-denial denial.
Suburban sprawl in the face of high cost associated with it is dead….At least around here….The general plans in all the communities here have been revised and they all reflect high density housing on mass transportation routes and heavy arterial roads…And when I say high density, I am talking 40-50 units per acre…
This is a complete 190 degree reversal of what policy was just 25 years ago…..
And what of those who prefer not to live in such “high density” development? I care little of the “cost” of suburban living in so much as the money I spend is mine own to spend as I see fit.
And what of those who prefer not to live in such “high density” development ??
Well then don’t…I am not suggesting you have to…I am putting forth what land development policy is around here…
How about the Satellite Technology in our newer autos?
Wouldn’t it be easy for them to activate that stuff in the case “they had to find us”?
Off the wall Tin Foil Hat stuff, but I think they can turn those things on at any time.
Also, regarding cell phones/GPS, some employers give their employees a company phone and then track their actions during the day. Some tell the employees and others don’t.
My guess is that when he bought his tickets to Dland that he agreed to their rules and regulations, etc.. He should read the back of the ticket.
‘He should read the back of the ticket’
What notice is given to the protestors? Or for that matter, you, Anon in DC, for posting on this very blog? You may not be as anonymous as you think.
‘Federal Reserve Bank of New York Sentiment Analysis and Social Media Monitoring Proposal’
‘Social media platforms are changing the way organizations are communicating to the public Conversations are happening all the time and everywhere. There is need for the Communications Group to be timely and proactively aware of the reactions and opinions expressed by the general public as it relates to the Federal Reserve and its actions on a variety of subjects.’
‘The solution must provide real-time monitoring of relevant conversations. It should provide sentiment analysis (positive, negative or neutral) around key conversational topics…The solution should provide an alerting mechanism that automatically sends out reports or notifications based a predefined trigger’
http://www.thetechherald.com/articles/Federal-Reserve-looking-to-monitor-social-media
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-comes-fiattackwatch-bernanke-goes-watergate-prepares-eavesdrop-everything-mentioning-fed
I don’t assume I am annoymous. I don’t know enough about computesr and tech. As for the notice to protestors… If they are protesting in public they are fair game for someone taking their pictures. I would guess that any pictures you take in public are yours to use as you will I think with the exception of usings someone’s likeness for advertising.
Did the software friend provide a citation that the use of the facial reg. software is illegal? A long long time ago a wrote a paper in school on this topic. There is a legal distinction between annomity and privacy. Often the two are confused.
Where is our friend Polly?
There is no right to not be observed in a public place. The fact that the authorities have never had the technology to do it effectively before the very recent past doesn’t change the fact that they always could have done it. Taking pictures of people in a public park and trying to compare them with driver’s license photos would have been essentially useless but allowable before the computer could do the matching. Following them home (if they ever went home) with individual cops also would have been allowable to get an address. It also would have been beyond the manpower capabilities of any police department unless the protest was very very small.
The cutting edge of privacy stuff is in illegal search and seizure and related to using infrared to see into homes looking for heat patterns that indicated grow lights are being used for mj. I think that it was ruled an illegal search, but I’m not sure.
I sincerely doubt that Disney had access to a government database to id a person whose name they weren’t given or access to enough bank databases to be able to match up a name like that to a credit card (never mind the number of John Smiths that might be in a Disney park on any given day). They must have had a credit card associated with a name and face already. And yes, it is very likely that the back of the ticket had permission for Disney to use surveillance on its own property as part of the terms for entry. Even if it didn’t, it is their property. Why wouldn’t they have permission to photograph you? As for matching it up with your credit card? As long as they don’t charge your card, what have they done wrong? They already have your card information. Might be questionable if they run the card and therefore “reserve” an amount before you sign the slip, but that is the extent of what they seem to be doing that they aren’t allowed to do.
concern troll?
There is no right to not be observed in a public place.
Unless you’re a cop.
Nice, sf.
Basing stories off Facebook posts, without any verification? Not a great idea, but the Guardian is not much for reliability.
Here is the Facebook post, along with the guy that made the post admitting it was a misunderstanding.
http://www.facebook.com/naomi.wolf.author/posts/436917876324795
His assertion was all based on them knowing that that her pictures were linked to his card. Well, they were given two separate PhotoPass cards. He used a card that she was given, not the one he was given….
“You have to admit when you were wrong, and I was in this case. My girlfriend is from Mexico and doesn’t speak English. We had a miscommunication and it turns out Disney did give us another card. I just found the other one in my truck with the correct photo attached.
I sincerely apologize for all of this, this is 100% my fault, and I will definitely be more careful in the future with what I write.”
Disney uses facial recognition to track guests is SOOOO much more news worthy than “Story was all based on a Facebook post from a guy that didn’t know he was accessing the photo site using the code his girlfriend was given rather than the one he was given.”
They had his name and credit card because she used his card to buy pictures of herself.
Darn those Mexican girlfriends.
No matter how much information is gathered…there has to be someone that makes sense of it all.
Humans will always be the weak link.
The number of overseers will have to be enormous in a country the size of the United States.
The East German Stazi had 1 of every 200 citizens working as overseerers. In the US, that would amount to 15 million. Given the geographic area of the country, probably more.
Just not feasible right now.
Skroodle, good point. Maybe that’s why they want only a few rich people and a lot of poor people. Then they would only watch the rich people and treat the rest like the proles — let them run wild.
If the Disney story was true, wouldn’t all retailers be using this tech to cut back on credit card fraud? Wouldn’t TSA be using it to screen us at the airport?
Not necessarily. For the retailer, it costs money to install and service.
For the TSA, how do you know they aren’t using it?
Will Paul Ryan & Mitt Romney resurrect the Republican plan to deliver Social Security to the Wall Street gambling den?
More general concern: By failing to define their own platform, they are making it very convenient for the Democrats to define it for them. For example, where are they on housing policy? RADIO SILENCE.
We don’t want to deliver the biggest ponzi scheme going to the private sector, do we? (Why not get rid of the scheme? I know; heresy.)
Why is it not mentioned that 401k’s, IRA’s, ect, are delivering much loot to Wall Street every pay period? And subsidized by the ‘taxpayer’ to boot? The funds go into the WS casino, as the tax code punishes dividend payers and thereby provides incentives for merger, acquisition and globalism.
Who could have known what a disaster it would be to get the govt involved in retirement. Or housing.
Europe starts confiscating private pension funds
People’s retirement savings are a convenient source of revenue for governments that don’t want to reduce spending or make privatizations. As most pension schemes in Europe are organised by the state, European ministers of finance have a facilitated access to the savings accumulated there, and it is only logical that they try to get a hold of this money for their own ends. In recent weeks I have noted five such attempts: Three situations concern private personal savings; two others refer to national funds.
The most striking example is Hungary, where last month the government made the citizens an offer they could not refuse. They could either remit their individual retirement savings to the state, or lose the right to the basic state pension (but still have an obligation to pay contributions for it). In this extortionate way, the government wants to gain control over $14bn of individual retirement savings.
Hungary is one of the most likely candidates of hyperinflation at this point.
There’s only one thing that’s worse than a central bank. It’s a central bank under the control of politicians.
And it won’t work for the citizens either. A lot of those mortgages are denominated in Swiss Francs.
That’s just a bad situation all around.
I have noted five such attempts:
Hungary is one. What are the other four?
You’re right. Phase out SS. Biggest rip off in history.
nope….. “Phase out” simply means I keep feeding the monster while everyone keeps eating at the trough.
Phase out SS. Biggest rip off in history ??
Tell that to my mother & MIL….
Their needs are your problem. Their self-entitlement is everyones problem.
“We must all hang together, or, most assuredly, we shall all hang separately.”
You don’t think Benjamin Franklin was some kind of socialist commie, do you?
Great timing for that suggestion — just before an army of pensionless Baby Boomers start relying on Social Security to keep themselves alive.
Marie Antoinette didn’t get it either.
Why not get rid of the scheme?
Exactly.
Why not? And we know not a single elected jackass will back up their own rhetoric and do it.
The issue of the indigent elderly cannot be solved until the SS/Medicare ponzi is put behind us.
Cause they will all be dead at that point??
Problem solved! And think of the housing it would free up.
Then why do we allow them to live so long in a useless, mindless, no quality of life state?
Where is Dr Kevorkian when you need him?
Dead I believe. I think he slipped on the ice, but that may have been Dr. Atkins (for some reason I get them mixed up).
“Why is it not mentioned that 401k’s, IRA’s, ect, are delivering much loot to Wall Street every pay period? “
I’ve mentioned it. Specifically as an example of it being the spearhead for the eventual hand-off of SS.
I’d like to mention a great book: “The Unincorporated Man” It’s scifi, but it really goes to the heart of a society that is ruled strictly by “free market” philosophy and more pointedly, a corporate one.
‘the eventual hand-off of SS’
Why would anyone want a warehouse full of IOU’s?
‘a society that is ruled strictly by ‘free market’ philosophy’
Yeah, it’s freedom all around these days. As I’ve pointed out before, drive to Mexico or Canada and try to engage in trade. You can bring back maybe $100 worth of stuff on the tourist list, but you can’t take anything in. How much will you make on that?
“Yeah, it’s freedom all around these days. As I’ve pointed out before, drive to Mexico or Canada and try to engage in trade. You can bring back maybe $100 worth of stuff on the tourist list, but you can’t take anything in. How much will you make on that?”
I don’t understand the context to my book reference.
As for international business, there’s plenty of that, despite the obstacles.
Why would anyone want a warehouse full of IOU’s?
And yet, investors from around the world willingly purchase these “IOU’s”, to the tune of over a trillion dollars worth each year.
Demography
Virility symbols
American fertility is now lower than that of France
Aug 11th 2012 | from the print edition
CONSERVATIVE Americans like to contrast the vigour and virility of their own country with the decadence and decline of Europe. Demography is exhibit A in their argument. Mitt Romney, for example, talked about Europe’s “demographic disaster” as he ended his presidential bid in 2008, calling it “the inevitable product of weakened faith in the creator, failed families, disrespect for the sanctity of human life and eroded morality”.
Americans especially like to focus on the total fertility rate, or TFR, the average number of children a woman can expect to have during her lifetime. For years, America was unusual among rich countries in having a relatively high TFR of around 2.1, the so-called “replacement rate”, at which a population stabilises over the long term. European countries were typically below that rate, sometimes far below it.
So it comes as something of a shock to discover that in 2011 America’s fertility rate was below replacement level and below that of some large European countries. The American rate is now 1.9 and falling. France’s is 2.0 and stable. The rate in England is 2.0 and rising slightly.
American fertility reached its recent peak in 2007; its fall has coincided with the economic crisis that began at the end of that year. Recession seems to have reduced fertility through at least two channels. First, migrants often cannot find work and go back home. Since they tend to have slightly larger families than native-born citizens, this reduces fertility. It has happened in Spain in the past two years, and may be happening in America as Mexicans leave.
Second, loss of income, compounded by the housing crisis, is causing young people to postpone marriage, the setting up of new homes, and having children. In 2011 the Pew Research Centre asked 18-to-34-year-old Americans about their reaction to recession: 22% said they had postponed having a baby and 20% said they had postponed marriage as a result. This reaction is evident in Europe, too, but the response seems to have been sharper in America.
…
If we hadn’t setup our society as a ponzi scheme, this wouldn’t be an issue. Less people in this country should be a good thing, not a bad thing. More land for everyone, less pollution, less overcrowding; basically, more natural resources per person.
The thing that these people don’t seem to be able to understand is that the strength of a nation is no longer directly attributable to the number of mouths to feed inside that nation. Technology has changed the equation, now the nation that has the smartest and most innovative society is the one that will prosper, not the one with the most total people.
I’m not a “greenie”, but, I do recognize some fundamental facts. The carrying capacity of this world is limited. If we keep increasing the population, eventually we will hit the carrying capacity of this planet. Also, there’s some point between where we are today and the absolute ecological carrying capacity where every single child born is a burden on society, rather than a blessing. I’d argue that we’ve reached that point already, but, either way, there’s a number, it’s just arguing what that number is.
IMHO, much of the unemployment problem we are seeing today is the retooling of this country for a knowledge based economy. We simply don’t need 10 sons to till the fields anymore, we have tractors. We don’t need 10,000 low education toll takers anymore, we have EzPass and SunPass. Those are just some examples, but, I think that they apply across the world; 1 farmer with a tractor can feed 1000 people, before the tractor, maybe they could feed 10.
The only place we do need “more people” is to sustain ponzi schemes. Things like SS are probably the starkest example, but, there are plenty of others (housing market anyone?). I don’t think that we should encourage bringing more people in the world just to keep global scale ponzi’s going. Look at Africa, they have a shockingly high birth rate. They taking over the world anytime soon? I think not.
Oh, sorry to reply to my own comment, but one final incendiary thing to add.
If you’re a “greenie” you must be “anti-child”. Driving a Hummer around with a leak in the gas tank while running your AC with all the windows open on and leaving the Hummer running in the garage doesn’t even come close to approaching the ecological damage done by each additional child. Yes, there are things that we can/should do to reduce our individual carbon footprint. But, nothing can come close to “remain childless” as a green solution. If we were able to whittle down the population, over the next 100 years, to 1/2 of what it is today, I think we’d suddenly find that most of the ecological harm done by humans will have stopped/reversed.
My wife and I chose to be childless for this reason.
Were we duped?
Unable to correct.
Less people in this country should be a good thing, not a bad thing.
actually, less people in a country IS a bad thing, if nearly everyone works.
the more people that are actually ‘working’ in an economy, the stronger the economy is.
if there were only 10 people in the world, nothing much could get done. and if only 8 of the 10 were working, even less would get done. we need a greater population combined with free markets to do even greater things.
‘the population bomb’ was pure crap. i’m glad i don’t even remember the author’s name.
“if nearly everyone works”
That’s a big if. And, also, there’s a lot of work done today that simply doesn’t provide much/any value to society (those people would be better tasked at something else). DMV comes to mind.
And, also, there’s a lot of work done today that simply doesn’t provide much/any value to society (those people would be better tasked at something else). DMV comes to mind.
that’s true. many jobs are really ’siphons’ of wealth. but most of them, like the courts, and law enforcement, we really need. we need them even if they aren’t productive. but in order to be able to afford them, someone has to be productive. we need fountains of wealth, to fund the siphons of wealth. we should devote our energy to help and encourage the wealth production that makes all these other jobs possible.
“that’s true. many jobs are really ’siphons’ of wealth. but most of them, like the courts, and law enforcement, we really need.”
Yes, we do need them. But, no, they don’t need to be anywhere near the size they are today. Because they are so bloated, these organizations start to encroach on parts of our lives that our forefathers never would have intended (IE, drug prohibition). We need law enforcement to protect us from bad people, not ourselves. Unfortunately, much (most?) of their efforts are directed at internal control, more than external protection. Don’t believe it; go sit in court someday. I’d wager a guess that 80% of the defendants that you see called will be in there for crimes with no victim (where the state is the complainant). For crimes like murder, this makes sense (as the harmed person it not around to press charges). For other crimes, if there is no victim (other than the state), IMHO, there is no crime.
Yes, we do need them. But, no, they don’t need to be anywhere near the size they are today.
true.
We need law enforcement to protect us from bad people, not ourselves.
an astute observation.
I’d wager a guess that 80% of the defendants that you see called will be in there for crimes with no victim (where the state is the complainant).
the majority fell for the do-gooder’s plea to intervene.
For crimes like murder, this makes sense (as the harmed person it not around to press charges). For other crimes, if there is no victim (other than the state), IMHO, there is no crime.
agreed.
For other crimes, if there is no victim (other than the state), IMHO, there is no crime ??
Oh but the jobs & pensions !!! Think about all those jobs and pensions !! We ruien some lives along the way with punitive laws eh…So what….
“I’d argue that we’ve reached that point already”
Didn’t someone here crunch the numbers and state that the world could live in Texas?
If I owned Texas and I owned Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.
General Sheridan, 1865.
If every man woman and child owned a 1/4 acre, the US population would fill half of Texas.</b
I didn’t invent the factoid, but I crunched the numbers to confirm it.
I disagree with this: “the more people working, the stronger the economy will be.” We were at our strongest in the 50’s and 60’s, when much of (white) America was at home working the low-skill* job of mothering. To be honest, if you count able-bodied workers, the unemployment rate in the early 60’s was probably as high as it is now. We just had much lower labor participation rate when you could support a household on one income.
————–
*I’m not implying that mothering takes no skill. I’m saying that you don’t need a college degree or other training to do it.
To be honest, if you count able-bodied workers, the unemployment rate in the early 60’s was probably as high as it is now.
true, the difference is back then, women didn’t need to work. today, they need to work even when married in order to get by. not everyone, but i think the majority. our dollars have lost so much value, that it usually takes two incomes per household to get by today.
We just had much lower labor participation rate when you could support a household on one income.
i was making the argument that it’s harder to get by today than it was in the 1950s on another forum, just a few days ago. the guy i was arguing with said that ‘greater acceptance of women working’ was the reason two income households had been increasing for decades. or he said we simply ‘wanted more’ now than back then. i said for many men, the ‘more’ that they really wanted, was being able to have the wife stay home with the kids.
since the 70s we’ve needed wives in the workforce more and more. that’s a sign of growing poverty, not prosperity.
if we’d have stayed on the free market capitalism path, we’d probably only be working 2 or 3 days a week, and we’d have a much higher standard of living to go with it.
I read an article recently that talked about the difference between “education” and “credentialing” in regards to higher education, arguing that the real issue in college degrees is in the requirement for credentials that may or may not speak to the actual education involved or needed. So maybe what you mean is that mothering is an uncredentialed skill. (On-the-job training!)
“So maybe what you mean is that mothering is an uncredentialed skill.”
Training begins in early childhood.
“…since the 70s we’ve needed wives in the workforce more and more….”
Where is Big V when we need her?
And again, TFR shows that ignoring illegal immigration was really just a way of attacking and reversing the Baby Bust.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/fertility-rate-total-births-per-woman-wb-data.html
Post the pill and legal abortion, the TFR crashed to 1.8 and sat there for 15 year until when? Right. 1986 starts the spike back to 2.1.
And what happened in 1986? Right, the amnesty that quadrupled the rate at which illegals were flowing into the country.
Illegals are 4% of the population (12 million ish) and account for more than 8% of births (more than 350K a year). The babies of those first post-1986 illegals are now over 25 and are contributing lots of babies that don’t even show up in the above numbers.
Now add on those 3 million given amnesty, their children, and their children’s children.
Had we tossed out the illegals in the 1980s, and sealed the borders, (and not increase legal immigration) the population of the USA would be at least 25 million people smaller than it is. That is 10% fewer working age people, 10% lower GDP, and 10% fewer people occupying houses.
P.S. I’m making no assertion that this was a good idea. Just stating my belief that this was the plan. Fix the 1.8 TFR and ensure the population continues to increase at 1% per year, by giving a nod and a wink to the world’s poor that the American borders are open to undocumented immigrants.
They are having the same problem in Japan for the same reasons.
Marie Antoinette didn’t get it either.
Face half-off
Recent stock price drops have been attributed to the expiration of 90-day lock-up period last week.
Commentary
Forget the Baltic Dry Index – Take a Look at the Container Market
by Stuart Burns on August 16, 2012
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) usually steals the headlines when it comes to discussion of the world’s shipping fleets, and is often quoted when analysis of the global economy refers to international trade.
The Dry Index is a measure of bulk shipping rates and although the Baltic Exchange quotes a range of vessel sizes and types, it is often the large dry bulk carriers carrying iron ore, coal and grains that steal the limelight.
…
According to Reuters, the index this week has fallen for 26 straight days in a row. The average daily earnings of capesize vessels, which usually transport 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, slid $173 to $3,590. It has fallen almost 87 percent so far this year. So to what extent are the very low BDI rates a reflection of a global trade malaise?
If bulk trade is down, we would expect all trade to be down; if emerging economies are not buying as much raw material it is probably because they are not producing and exporting as many semi-finished goods (think China) and in turn, mature higher-tech markets are not exporting finished capital goods (think the US and Germany).
…
I’m not sure what it means, but on my road trip along I 90 yesterday, along a rail trunk line, I noticed a lot of trains with containers heading west toward Seattle…so my guess is the containers were empty.
Still, there were a lot more trains and semis out there than a couple years ago.
Government & Politics »
Are public pension fund return assumptions realistic?
Written by Mike Freeman
8:32 a.m., Aug. 18, 2012
Updated 1:48 p.m.
The past decade has faded the tint from rose-colored glasses of stock investors and folks who own mutual funds through their 401(k) retirement plans.
If they had put $100 in a U.S. blue chip stock fund in December 2001, they’d only have $133 at the end of 2011 — a paltry 2.9 percent compounded average annual return.
Yet most public pension funds in California and across the nation are forecasting much higher annual returns than that for their investment portfolios.
CalPERS, the California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) and the University of California Retirement Plan are predicting average annual returns of 7.5 percent over 20 years. The city of San Diego has the same forecast.
Given the slump in stocks and low interest rates and bond yields, are these public pension fund return assumptions realistic?
A number of pension experts have begun arguing for a more conservative outlook. Joe Nation, a public policy professor at Stanford University and a critic of the assumptions used by the big California public pension plans, has advocated for a 6.2 percent long-term return target based on a blended stock and bond portfolio.
Using a predictive computer model, Nation said there’s a 1 in 3 chance CalPERS will hit its current 7.5 percent average annual return forecast over the next 20 years, “which of course means there is a 2 in 3 chance you’ll fall short.”
…
“Using a predictive computer model …”
Lol. I love this blog.
How have these “predictive computer models” worked out thus far? And this model is projecting out - what? - twenty years?
Lol.
There’s a very old rule:
If X were a Y then they really wouldn’t be X, would they?
People who run pension funds are generally political appointees. They have nary a skill in actually managing money. If they did, they’d actually be able to find much better gigs, no?
Ditto for regulators, etc.
Exactly.
I love these retirement planning programs where you get to plug in numbers and - just like magic! - you’ll get to see all the way down to the dollar just how much retirement money you’ll need.
Some of the questions are valid: i.e. How much money do you now earn?
Some questions aren’t: i.e. How high will inflation be over your retirement years. How much money do you expect to earn on your retirement stash?
Plug in some numbers and - presto! - you are presented with a colorful chart informing you of what the future holds for you. And it’s all done by a computer so its validity is beyond question.
The 401k/retirement lobby keeps you feeding their profit centers.
“Retirement” this…. “retirement” that….
To hear individuals talk about “retirement” is stunning. I stand that and listen to them and wonder just what planet they’re on….. It’s 100% delusional talk.
I know a few individuals (a vanishingly small set, to be sure) that get the FPSS Seal of Approval™ as far as retirement is concerned.
They’ve done it right. They’ve taken into account possibilities that things could be a lot worse, etc. Most importantly, they are in excellent shape physically. Plans are logical, etc.
But I get the cut of your jib. It’s all I can do to not choke them to death using their own debt-sausage!
To hear individuals talk about “retirement” is stunning. I stand that and listen to them and wonder just what planet they’re on….. It’s 100% delusional talk.
It’s a code word for “drop your money in the stock market.” And if it goes buh-bye, well too bad for you.
I have a much simpler predictive model:
[1] What do you make? (let’s call it X)
[2] What do you spend? (let’s call it Y)
Magnitude of (X-Y) compared to cohort (locale, peer group, etc.) is where it’s at.
Top decile or even half - you’ll be fine. Bottom decile - suicide should be part of your planning process!
Can’t make any money off of saying obvious things though.
Most people do not willing starve to death.
There is going to be big trouble in little China.
Do you know how much food the US produces?
I heard on NPR recently that the US wastes about 50% of the food produced. I think this was food thrown out by the production and distribution chain, not by consumers post purchase. This was reported by a guy who did dumpster diving to feed his family. And it may have been several years ago. He also stated that worldwide it is about 30%.
The problem is not food production. It is the ability to purchase or acquire. Food banks have seen contributions decline and requests increase.
Drought will make all food more expensive in the next year or so. Temporarily, meat may decline as farmers cull their herds. In 3-6 months, I expect to see a significant spike in meat prices.
Given the slump in stocks and low interest rates and bond yields, are these public pension fund return assumptions realistic ??
The average volume on the exchange in 2007 was 1.4 bil shares….The average today is right at 800 mil….The retail investor has left the Poker table and IMO, for the most part, will not return…They learned their lesson in 2008….
So, with the easy money no longer in play, what are these manipulators left with ?? Playing & betting against each other ??
NYSE traded 2.9 B shares on Friday. Nasdaq traded 1.64 B.
It’s summer. Traditionally the slowest season.
Where is the 800 number coming from?
What are you smoking? Pass it on. Don’t bogart it!
Dates & numbers are wrong….The point that the retail investor is gone is accurate….
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-UE594_NYSEtr_G_20120815142303.jpg
I only see billions in that graph.
On the left hand side, the scale says billions. I see a starting point of of 2.8 or 2.9 B and an ending value of about 3-point-something B.
I don’t see 800 million anywhere. Not a single place.
Are you on crack or or you just plain ol’-fashioned st00pid?
Maybe you went to public school in an impoverished district?
Maybe you went to public school in an impoverished district ??
Or maybe you did my child…What part of this did you not comprehend ?
“Dates & numbers are wrong….The point that the retail investor is gone is accurate….”
And my original post was in response to this statement;
“Given the slump in stocks and low interest rates and bond yields, are these public pension fund return assumptions realistic ??”
So, the graph clearly shows the imploding of volume from approximately 2007 or 08….The fact that I mistakenly offered numbers that were inaccurate does not change the premise of my post…So there…..
“Are public pension fund return assumptions realistic?”
No.
” a paltry 2.9 percent compounded average annual return.”
Now index to inflation. CPI says something that cost $100 in 2001 would have cost $127 in 2011 meaning the real gain wasn’t $33, it was $6.
And, were management fees of the 401(k) and the mutual funds deducted from that “gain”?
Say those funds were invested 1998 to 2008 and what were the “gains”?
SCADA computer service work frequently takes one into the control room setting, usually a sedentary kind of place. Yesterday a co-worker was sharing his recent service call where he watched a woman hog down on four-dozen (no chit, 48 of ‘em) bacon-wrapped little smokies, and wash it down with half of a 2-liter bottle of soda. I couldn’t resist, “So did you ask her out?”
heh……. SCADA, PLC’s and instrumentation. My 3 construction nightmares.
Look at the bright side. She probably won’t live to collect her union pension, even if she retires at 55.
She probably won’t make it 55.
Oh yeah, I forgot…they were covered in cheese too!
Tis a great morning. Wonderful to be back in the Salinas Valley with great cool weather. Had to spend yesterday with some family in Lemore, CA with temps pushing 100. LOL. On the way up the hill late last night we were wondering where all the deer were, when we arrived home we found out-you know that deer in the headlight look. With little rain this year they are eating everything and I think our place is where they go for dessert.
OT, I decided to stimulate the economy a little bit yesterday. Bought a MacBook Air, a big item purchase for me in last 2 yrs outside of my 2 vacation expenses. I looked at everywhere for a deal. Interestingly enough buying locally at the BestBuy was the best deal I could find. I think it’s a first for me that buying locally with sales tax was a cheaper option.
I’m stimulating the farmers by buying an insane amount of tomatoes.
Best summer ever!
Are you buying basil and mozzarella, too? Mmm, caprese…
On Friday morning, my friend’s mother who has a massive garden said she was gonna drop off “a few vegetables”. Her definition of “few” is definitely different than mine.
The same Fri night, I had a boys’ night out with my Japanese friends. That was a mistake (as anyone who drinks with Japanese friends knows) but it was an entirely planned mistake.
I did wake up in my impaired state at the crack of dawn to get to the farmers’ market. I bought some baby zucchini and some tomatoes. Also some clams from a local fisherman.
Then I got home with a pounding headache only to realize, “There are too many vegetables here.” and I’m not a waster type of person.
So I texted a buncha people to come over on Sat for a light impromptu dinner.
Today, some friends said they were in the nabe and I was like, “You want some dinner?”
Now, I’m making stuffed peppers with eggplants, raisins, pine nuts and rosemary.
W00 H00!!!
Prize-winning guaco is cooling off in the frig. I can taste it already.
I picked up cherry tomatoes, peaches, blueberries, strawberries, apricots, plums, pears, apples, and green beans at the market yesterday.
Our raspberries are now done, but I picked about 30 pounds this year. Nothing like them fresh from the field. I have about 5-10 pounds frozen.
<i<Bought a MacBook Air
Foxconn and its workers in China thank you.
i bought a mac mini a few months back….and i have an old powerbook g4 and 2 pc’s…
I was debating on the macbook air..but i still dont do a lot of computing on the road to justify the cost….so the old g4 works fine for now, its got wifi anyway. The only problem is it wont run the newest flash…so ustream stickam dont work……i run 10.5.8 which is the max
Apple products are price fixed. Amazon is not allowed to sell them any less expensively than your local stores. I am a bit surprised, however, that with sales tax in the equation you were still able to buy for less/the same locally.
http://www.courant.com/business/hc-utc-defense-cuts-20120819,0,3593024.story
Article above has quotes from three defense workers: one age 37 and considering postponing becoming a first-time father, another age 51 with two teens worried about upcoming college expenses, and another age 31 who is holding off buying a house because of the potential job cuts at Pratt & Whitney in Jupitor, Fl. I have no sympathy for these people. If their work is not needed it’s not needed. A shiny new weapon sitting in its crate unused will be wanted to be used to justify its utility wouldn’t it?
No patriotic defense worker should ever want his job to be permanent. Defense spending is by nature boom and bust. Boom in emergencies, bust when it is no longer necessary. You know what? The big spending is NO LONGER NECESSARY. This means job cuts. Any good engineer knows you should save for the bad times ahead. Yes, when we defense engineers are needed, we are welcomed. But we need to go when we are no longer wanted.
The defense industry is not the place for people who want a stable income. It’s not a career to start or raise a family with. It’s for the highly mobile single people instead.
I love defense technology and defending America’s freedoms (albeit waning). I hate interventionism. It’s a tough business and I think we need far more than a 40% haircut and suck in the gut. I plan on continuing in the work even though it will take moving around like a ping pong ball between east coast and west coast. I will love America more and be patriotic if we stop the Wilson doctrine and confine ourselves to defense. We do need private defense industry, but a lot less defense spending.
Lest we forget: Eisenhower’s Military-Industrial Complex speech:
http://coursesa.matrix.msu.edu/~hst306/documents/indust.html
Posted at 09:45 AM ET, 08/19/2012
Ryan and Romney on the same page on national security
By Jennifer Rubin
While Vice President Biden is benched (What use is he to President Obama in the Rust Belt if he’s now a punch line?), Paul Ryan is infusing the GOP ticket with energy and nuts-and-bolts policy. He has even begun to talk about national security.
On Friday he blasted the president for not acting to block the “devastating defense cuts” from the sequestration: “They call it sequester and all of that. Well, I tell you what. In the House, we already passed the bill to cut spending in other areas of government to make sure that these devastating cuts to defense never occur so we don’t put Virginians out of work and so we have a strong national defense. That’s extremely important.” Ryan, of course, voted for the original debt ceiling deal that created the sequestration, but as he pointed out, he’s done what he could to prevent the cuts the defense secretary has said would be “devastating” to national security. (Ryan can be accused of naivete in thinking that Democrats would act in good faith in the supercommittee to avoid sequestration.)
…
Bilious knows how to milk the teat while quoting Eisenhower!
LOL
Moo, moo, moo, moo, moo. Lots of contractors sucking away at dried-up ol’ droopy sagging wrinkly n1pples.
Again the retarded HBBers such as FPSS refuse to acknowledge America needs some form of defense (Constition states so.). It has to be paid for in some way.
FPSS is a retard.
Suck that teat hard, boy, suck it! Suck it for all it will give you.
LOL
‘America needs some form of defense (Constition states so.)’
The Constitution says nothing to support hundreds of bases in over a hundred foreign countries.
‘It has to be paid for in some way.’
Borrow it from China?
Non-defense contract software gigs - they exist. Just now I found such a position in the northwest that is an exact fit and is a six month gig. It’s 40 hours per week. But I am not booted out of L.A. yet so no reason for me to quit. Also another one in San Diego.
I think the so-called “age discrimination” excuse by 50-somethings (I am older than 50) is a lie to cover up that they are deep into debt, unwilling to be mobile (because of teens at home or college expenses), too lazy from decades without fitness or nutrition or do not have the experience of moving to another job far away very quick.
The division of the staffing company I’m in has 300 software consultants. I’m a rare one because I have been in this division twelve years. My recruiter counts on me. In turn, he and his predecessors have always found a new gig for me within days. Sometimes they drive down my rate but I only allow it because the company stock is flying. My stock price gain of more than $15,000 per year since 2007 has taken some of the sting out of the no bennies and lowball hourly rate. Competing staffing companies have been trying to entice me over with a higher hourly and know I would be a prize.
My own skills are varied, but focus on embedded software engineering. This is very useful for smartphones, tablets, automotive computers, even home appliances as well as satellite software programming, air traffic control, light rail systems, medical imaging, network software, sensors, and hundreds of other areas that are not defense-oriented. I have those skills. I will not lack for a job for long as long as I’m fit to work.
If only pride really wenteth before a fall.
“I think the so-called “age discrimination” excuse by 50-somethings “
There is less age discrimination in contract work. Companies are more focused on your specific expertise.
I think a lot of those who are over 50 and struggling are looking for a regular job. Most of them are not used to looking for work every 6 months and it scares them. They want something predictable.
Still, there have been times when I have found that the market for my skill set has become over saturated. When that happens, it can be difficult to move into another market unless you are willing to take a major pay cut. It is especially difficult when the economy contracts and other markets are also experiencing over saturation.
In this economy, if you have been out of work for more than 6 months, that in and of itself is an excuse to hire someone else. Over 50s are experiencing longer periods of unemployment than their younger, similarly-experienced competition.
You may have missed some of these trends because you are in defense, which has not yet contracted. You may also benefit from looking younger than your age. Some of that is genetic and some is due to good living.
The disaster house from NY
A dream home in Skaneateles if it was not for the failed basement, coliform bacteria in the water and dangerous mold in the basement. The owners have fled to Florida. The owner builder was planning an enclave of million dollar properties just like the ones in FL. His wife collected wines and he collected classic cars using other people’s money.
http://www.cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=S277920
Seems like all the crooks from up north are welcomed in Florida.
For the mold, water and failed basement watch the video
if it was not for the failed basement, coliform bacteria in the water and dangerous mold in the basement.
Ooooh, dreamy!
Dear Gawd…do they think that is a selling point?
For a house in the middle of nowhere between Syracuse and Rochester?
The public unions thank you if you buy this place…
—————————–
The $25,000 property taxes reflect the old $1.1 million assessed value. New taxes are approx. $18,000 w/o STAR
“For a house in the middle of nowhere between Syracuse and Rochester?”
It was a great place for my wedding!
Bloomberg News
China New-Home Prices Rebound After Interest-Rate Cuts
By Bloomberg News on August 19, 2012
China’s prices of new homes rose in the largest number of cities in 14 months in July as sentiment improved after interest-rate cuts and incentives for first-time buyers.
Prices climbed from a month earlier in 49 of the 70 cities tracked by the government, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its website on Aug. 18. That was the most since May last year and compared with 25 cities in June. Prices fell in nine cities and were unchanged in 12.
Buyers, buoyed by two interest-rate cuts since June, have returned to the market even as the government pledges to maintain real estate curbs to make housing more affordable. An inspection last month ordered by the State Council found recent increases in property prices and easing policies by some local authorities among problems that need “particular attention,” the official Xinhua News Agency reported on Aug. 17.
“China’s home prices have bottomed out,” Johnson Hu, a Hong Kong-based property analyst at CIMB-GK Securities Research, said in a phone interview. “The central government may start to strictly implement the current curbs. New policies will depend on the trend of home prices. With the home purchase restrictions in place, it’s very unlikely housing prices will rebound strongly.”
…
“China’s home prices have bottomed out,”
Oh please. I knew other countries would have problems too, but I didn’t know the lying part was so universal. Somehow I thought other cultures wouldn’t put up with it the way we do.
The entire planet is crawling with serial bottom callers!
“Step right up and catch your falling knife real estate investment!!!”
“More than 21,000 Rochester-area residents — many of them well-educated and eminently employable at virtually any other time in history — have been out of work for so long that they’ve exhausted all of their unemployment benefits.”
http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/20120819/NEWS01/308190020/Jobless-Joe-Kovacs-unemployment-benefits?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Local%20News
Holy moly, that’s a sobering read.
Why?
Eastman Kodak is long dead.
It was on life support when I was 10. What’s so surprising?
Oh, and prices in Rochester are sky-high. Ummm, yeah. That’s gonna work long-term.
And Rottenchester has been dead for even longer.
Who cares about employment when we are having the best and the sunniest summer ever? Don’t worry the scumbags in Albany will fix it by raising their taxes.
Hey the darn teachers need a raise.
“Holy moly, that’s a sobering read.”
That it is.
Solution.
Leave NYS.
More than 21,000 Rochester-area residents — many of them well-educated and eminently employable at virtually any other time in history — have been out of work for so long that they’ve exhausted all of their unemployment benefits.
he’s 49…Beth Kovacs, 42 gawd they are so old looking…embarrassing
“People are hiring energy level”, i wonder what that exactly means…
I guess if you’ve done nothing during your 99 weeks of unemployment then it works against you.
That’s why I advocate 26 weeks then on the 27th you have to be in school, or some OJT/ internship to continue to collect….so the biggest gap is the 26 weeks.
“Beth has the opposite problem. She doesn’t have a college degree and hasn’t needed to work for 15 years.”
Beth has also “let herself go.”
Employer Cloud of Thought: Nobody wants to look at that for eight hours a day unless she’s hauling in real money for the firm.
Ritholtz: “Massive foreclosure machine winds up this fall. Bottom is a very long way down. Prices aren’t cheap. Housing prices are where they were 2004. Lower prices are ahead of us.”
http://www.capitalismwithoutfailure.com/2012/08/barry-ritholtz-on-ghosts-haunting-us.html
Go Barry!! You rock!!!!
Everyone do yourselves a favor, listen to the piece, don’t read RAL’s quote.
Good information from Barry. Unsurprising. If he is correct (and I hope he is), and foreclosures ramp up in the fall, watch out in states that have massive numbers of non-current loans.
Again, look at the LPS Mortgage Monitor…it shows the states that have been sitting on their hands…high non-current loan rates.
Everyone do yourself a favor and note that “Rental Watch” is a liar.
Aside from that, LISTEN to Ritholtz’s interview. What will you hear?
“Massive foreclosure machine winds up this fall. Bottom is a very long way down. Prices aren’t cheap. Housing prices are where they were 2004. Lower prices are ahead of us.”
I liked how Barry noted up front that the serial bottom call brigade has incorrectly called a bottom every year going back to 2005 or so. We certainly do see eye-to-eye on that point.
Many years back, we used to occasionally post a series of LA Times articles someone compiled from the early-1990s housing bust. The same thing that is happening currently happened back then: Year after year, a shameless though idiotic cadre of MSM-annointed real estate ‘experts’ predicted a housing bottom year-in, year-out for about six years in a row until their stopped-clock prediction finally panned out.
This time I expect the phenomenon to last for upwards of a decade, with no admission along the way that the bottom callers are wrong over and over again, year after year. I suppose tricking greater fools into believing a bottom is in is a highly effective tool for encouraging them to catch themselves falling knives.
“…Mark Zandi, maybe the single worst economist with respect to housing…”
Given how many economists have been so woefully and consistently wrong on housing, it’s awfully hard to single out a single worst one.
But Zandi seems as good a choice as any, if you had to pick!
“Everyone do yourselves a favor, listen to the piece, don’t read RAL’s quote.”
OK.
That one statement pretty much shoots the serial bottom call brigades’ stopped-clock position to Hell, doesn’t it?
“titular owners”
Great term — I love it!
The LPS Mortgage Monitor certainly offers a gold mine of information. What I find most shocking, despite the highly publicized drop in noncurrency rates, is that all but nine states had “noncurrent percentages” north of 7.5% as of the June 2012 LPS Mortgage Monitor report. California offers a great case in point:
With 9.1% of mortgages “noncurrent” and a total of
Florida is in far worse shape than California, with 7.7% of mortgages delinquent and 13.5% in foreclosure, for a total noncurrent status percentage at a whopping 21.2%!
* This is the percentage of mortgages that are either over 30 days delinquent or in foreclosure.
My last post on the LPS Mortgage Monitor kind of misfired before it was done — sorry!
I was about to make a point regarding California’s 9.1% rate of noncurrent mortgages as of the June 2012 LPS Mortgage Monitor report when I accidentally hit the “Add Comment” button. According to an April 2012 Center for Responsible Lending report, there were 671,000 California mortgages either past due or in foreclosure as of Q4.2011. That sounds to me like a hell of a lot of shadow inventory in the pipeline!
Blue, I hope you’re enjoying your summer on the water. Have a cold one for me.
I also hope you’ve reconnected your toilet by now!
Why buy a house today when prices are grossly inflated and falling and interest rates are falling?
The question remains unanswered.
Santa Clara County Realtor Charged With 44 Counts Of Felony Fraud
http://losgatos.patch.com/articles/real-estate-agent-charged-with-scamming-county-residents-expected-to-enter-plea
Housing pimps inflating prices in the Bay area are headed for the slammer.
Buyer Beware
Canadian Housing Prices Falling Steadily
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/08/15/canadian-home-prices-falling-steadily/
Of course this will accelerate the price declines here in the US.
Enjoy.
PS- Why buy a house when prices are inflated and falling? Buy later after prices crater for 65% less.
If you listen carefully, you can almost hear the giant sucking sound of the all-cash Canadian buyer demand drying up from the U.S. real estate investing scene. Same thing happened a few years back to California real estate investors who used to buy multiple houses in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Utah and Colorado.
Someone on the blog today said that the stock volumes are down roughly by half and a respondent said no and used a high volume day (as opposed to a month) in reply to argue that volumes are not down.
They are seriously down. The Dow is running at about 2.5 billion as opposed to about 5 billion a month.
http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/stock-charts/?CA=0&CB=0&CC=0&CD=0&D4=1&DD=1&D5=0&DCS=2&MA0=0&MA1=0&C5=0&C5D=0&C6=0&C7=0&C7D=0&C8=0&C9=0&CF=1&D8=0&DB=0&DC=0&D9=0&DA=0&D1=0&symbol=%24us%3aINDU&SZ=0&PT=10
We should not be questioning the stock volumes but why are they holding up so well with such a reduced volume and all this uncertainty? Is the Fed manipulating the market?
Yes with QEs. Why? Interest rates, pension plans, and long term gov loan costs. And they don’t mind devaluing the dollar to do it. A day of reckoning is coming. The USD is international currency and will be controlled by outsiders over the longer term. Not the Fed.
Shipping down by 87% on VLCC traffic !
Welcome to the deflationary spiral and all the market distorting interference cannot prevent the price declines.
Enjoy.
I’m not the only one who sees the vestiges of Czarist rule in Putin’s Pussy Riot sentence.
Aug. 17, 2012, 4:03 p.m. EDT
Putin’s Pussy Riot problem
Commentary: Verdict fans old fears of investing in Russia
By MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Three defendants from the Russian bad-girl band Pussy Riot found out just how bad they’d been Friday.
For unleashing one of their bizarre guerilla theater protests against the policies of President Vladimir Putin in Moscow’s Cathedral of Christ the Savior last February, the three young feminists were each sentenced to two years in prison. Their crime? Hooliganism.
Of course this trial was about more than offending the sensibilities of a few Muscovite churchgoers. It was a show, winning support for the defendants from such diverse corners as Madonna, the U.S. State Department and members of the German Reichstag.
It was also a show trial, reminiscent of the Soviet era — a deliberate demonstration by those in power aimed at reminding anyone contemplating challenging their authority that there are consequences.
It’s all very czarist, really. And very Stalinist. Ultimately, it seems to line up with much of Russian’s history. And it sends a chill through the investment community.
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Russia | By Tanner Curtis | August 17, 2012
The Cry Heard Around the World: “Free Pussy Riot!”
Members of the female punk band “Pussy Riot” Nadezhda
Tolokonnikova, Yekaterina Samutsevich and Maria Alyokhina sit in a glass-walled cage after a court hearing in Moscow, Aug. 17, 2012.
Maxim Shemetov / Reuters
After members of the Russian punk bank were sentenced to prison, demonstrations sprang up from Europe to New York City demanding their freedom–and their right of self-expression.
Aug. 20, 2012, 12:53 a.m. EDT
Asia stocks fall as commodity firms weigh
By Sarah Turner, MarketWatch
SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Japanese stocks pulled back to join other major Asian stock markets in negative territory Monday, with commodity-sector firms pulled down by earnings-related weakness and broker downgrades.
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