Problem solved, IF the economy was fundamentally sound and not plagued by trade imbalance. IF that were the case, than government could add some money to circulation, and it would stay there, allowing government to back off the stimulus.
What we have is a global economy that has embraced trade imbalances. The government spends some money into the economy, it quickly drains out of circulation into the global and domestic trade imbalances, and then the government is forced to again borrow more money into existence.
Keynes philosophy of using government spending to attempt to flatten the business cycle ONLY applies to otherwise fundamentally sound economy, and our trade imbalance plagued global economies are ANYTHING but fundamentally sound.
We forgot that the economy should exist to ensure the efficient production and distribution of goods and services, and have embraced the idea that the economy exists so the super rich can get ever super richer by creating and exploiting global imbalances!
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Comment by mathguy
2012-08-22 14:13:30
So what would happen if the Fed just printed up a billion or so dollars, paid off Treasury debt and issued no new debt to replace it?
So what would happen if the Fed just printed up a billion or so dollars, paid off Treasury debt and issued no new debt to replace it?
The fed’s balance sheet has to balance by definition. How was the printing transaction booked? What account(s) was credited to offset the debit / asset [newly printed money]?
If they book the source ( credit ) as a liability there’s your debt. If they book it to a P&L account then they would be treating it as earnings. If they book it to an Asset … maybe its time for an audit!, an independent, verified one!
I would like to know how much the owner’s of the Fed profit from charging the country interest on its debt. I realize that some gets paid back to the treasury and a guaranteed percentage i retained as profit.
Who gets how much?
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-22 14:59:58
“So what would happen if the Fed just printed up a billion or so dollars, paid off Treasury debt and issued no new debt to replace it?”
The Belize central bank can only print Belize money. I’m sure their debt is not denominated in their local currency. Their debt is almost certainly denominated in US Dollars, and they can’t issue dollars. Again, my comment that the problem occurs when the debt is not in the local currency.
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-22 15:38:39
“I would like to know how much the owner’s of the Fed profit from charging the country interest on its debt. I realize that some gets paid back to the treasury and a guaranteed percentage i retained as profit.
For 2011, the Fed made $66B in interest on its holdings which started the year at $2.5T and ended closer to $3T. It then paid out $3T in interest to banks that had reserves deposited in the Fed, for a net income of $63.6B.
The biggest drain is the actual cost of operating the Fed. Some $3.8B a year, including $3B to pay some 18K employees.
$1.8B loss on the value of the assets it held, and $240M due to under performance of the employee retirement fund.
Net profit of $58B. A $240M adjustment to funded status brings profit up to $58.2B
It then paid out $1.1B in dividends to the member banks (1.9% of net profit).
The reduced its retained earnings to cover future losses by $519M as $1.8B in losses were realized above….
That made for a net return to the treasury of $57.5B.
The “audit of the Fed” is not about how much they earn, spend, or return to the Treasury The “audit the Fed” is all about getting the dirty on which banks are doing liquidity actions (doing repurchase agreements of illiquid assets for liquid cash). I guess Ron Paul, and the other’s calling for the audits want to cause a run on the banks that are having the lost liquidity issues.
(Note: a liquidity issue is not the same as being insolvent.)
Only helps if the debt is denominated in your own currency. If the debt is denominated in someone else’s currency, printing more of yours does you no good.
Same here. I still unfortunately see plastic bottles in the garbage in many places (gym, airport, etc) but I’m glad as a society that we’re shifting to this level of reuse, recycle, etc.
I was taught my own recycle-nazi habits by proactive parents who have recycled everything they can since the 70s, before they had a nice yellow bin in which to do so. Not doing so was a waste of resources.
I was taught my own recycle-nazi habits by proactive parents who have recycled everything they can since the 70s, before they had a nice yellow bin in which to do so. Not doing so was a waste of resources.
Sleepless, I can totally relate. I was raised by conservative Republicans who were staunch environmentalists.
Madre was such a recycling Nazi that when friends TP’d our house after a big game, she made us collect it in dozens of brown paper bags and use it in our bathroom for the next year instead of buying new rolls. No use wasting perfectly good used toilet paper….
Comment by polly
2012-08-22 14:13:52
I wonder if TPing houses has lost its appeal as the TP itself is so much more expensive. Or maybe the kids just take the stuff from home? Their parents must have fits. TP has definitely gone up in price per roll and the rolls are smaller.
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-08-22 18:44:41
Neighbor’s house got TP’d within the past year ago…I guess it still holds some appeal.
“FWIW our recycling bin at home fills up a lot more than the trash bin does.”
Same. I still notice apartment and office complexes with no recycling, and if you work around office type people, you know how much waste they produce every day.
News out reveals — shock! — that Portugal’s economy is still shrinking. And, according to the wizards at the global research division of Citi, it will “probably require an extension of its bailout package despite the fact that the government has dutifully reduced its expenditure and diligently implemented most of the measures mandated under the Troika program.”
Inflation has been almost continuously above target since 2008, while the spending cuts scheduled are more sustained than any developed country has ever delivered. What’s more, there is no end in sight.
The glass half full view observes that things could have been a lot worse. Britain’s bust banks were about as large, relative to the economy, as Ireland’s or Spain’s, yet we haven’t been driven to seek an international bail-out. Despite planning a 12pc of GDP budget deficit, bond markets have not lost faith. Deflation didn’t get out of control. Unemployment has stayed modest. And, while there’s been a double dip, it’s only a small one so far.
Europe Pressures Intensify Germany’s Merkel Faces Tough Choices as Greek Crisis Threatens Euro Anew By MARCUS WALKER
Chancellor Merkel, with other German officials Tuesday, faces opposition in her coalition to more Greek aid.
BERLIN—German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces one of the toughest choices of her career in the coming weeks: whether to risk the unraveling of the euro zone, or her government.
After a summer lull, Greece is again Ms. Merkel’s biggest headache.
The Greek government, struggling with depression-like conditions that have pushed the economy to the brink, is likely to need many billions of euros of additional aid to avoid bankruptcy.
If Athens doesn’t get the money, it may be forced to leave the euro, an outcome that would undermine financial markets’ tenuous confidence in other vulnerable southern euro members, including Spain and Italy.
Her junior coalition partners are especially against lending Greece more money, threatening to leave her either without a governing majority—or without a plausible way to cover Athens’s funding gap.
“It is one of the hardest dilemmas she has faced as chancellor,” said an adviser to Ms. Merkel. The chancellor is set to meet with French President François Hollande on Thursday and Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras on Friday, meetings the chancellor’s aides say will help determine Berlin’s course.
…
” ‘We need to get out of this negative psychology, which is like a black hole. Greeks have voted for a new government to put the country on a new course,’ the prime minister insisted.
‘We are making progress in structural reforms and privatisations. And it is not fair when some people in Europe want to keep pushing us back into this hole,’ he said in comments translated into German.”
A trader monitors the screen on a trading floor in London January 22, 2010. REUTERS-Stefan Wermuth
A man is silhouetted in an electronic board showing the FTSE MIB Index for the Italian equity market in this photo illustration taken in Rome August 9, 2011. REUTERS-Tony Gentile
By Nigel Stephenson
LONDON | Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:11am EDT
(Reuters) - Global shares, the euro and Spanish bonds fell on Wednesday as the prime minister of struggling Greece was set to kick off a series of meetings that could set the course for the euro zone debt crisis.
Many big stock markets have risen 15-20 percent since June on expectations of central bank intervention to address the crisis, but with details unclear and obstacles still in the way of action, some investors doubt recent gains are merited.
…
I seem to detect a raise in Nationalism in Europe and the UK. Politicians have started to wrap themselves in the shrouds of long dead heroes (or villains depending on your take on history).
ft dot com
Markets Insight
August 21, 2012 2:36 pm
Beware the Faustian bargains of central banks
By Scott Minerd
In Goethe’s 1831 drama Faust, the devil persuades a bankrupt emperor to print and spend vast quantities of paper money as a short-term fix for his country’s fiscal problems. As a consequence, the empire ultimately unravels and descends into chaos. Today, governments that have relied on quantitative easing instead of undertaking necessary structural reforms have arguably entered into the grandest Faustian bargain in financial history.
As a result of multi-trillion-dollar quantitative easing programmes, central banks have compromised their ability to control the money supply, making them vulnerable to runaway inflation. When interest rates rise, the value of central bank assets could fall below the face value of their liabilities, potentially rendering them incapable of protecting the purchasing power of their currencies. To better understand the potential consequences of quantitative easing, it is useful to review the historical evolution of central banking. Early central banks were essentially clearing houses for gold. Individuals and trading companies placed their bullion on deposit and received a claim that could be redeemed upon demand. The system’s strength was largely derived from its simplicity. Today’s global monetary system, by contrast, has virtually no gold backing and depends entirely on faith that central bankers can control the supply of paper money.
…
How far back? How about back to a time before the US of A existed? Back to feudalism! It appears that’s where we are headed. The ultimate ‘good old days’ for the 0.1%.
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2012-08-22 08:32:28
has set race relations back at least 20 years
How so? By forcing some Americans to acknowledge that they do in fact have a (half) black President?
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 08:36:04
Back before the time where we borrowed any thing close to forty cents of every dollar we spend.
But Dick Cheney said the deficits don’t matter.
I wonder how much the deficit will grow under Romney/Ryan? Invading and occupying Iran will cost some serious coin.
“I did hold my nose and vote for Carter in 1980, Mondale in 1984, and Dukakis in 1988.”
With only two choices, some times the best one requires you to hold your nose.
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-22 08:45:52
Iran is a much bigger project than Iraq. Just fighting their army in a neutral location (like inside the border of Iraq) would cost serious coin. Invading would take even more, and occupying (successfully) might not even be possible. Hopefully nobody is stupid enough to actually attempt it. Whatever must be taken out should be taken out from over the horizon.
Comment by goon squad
2012-08-22 08:46:05
how much the deficit will grow under Romney/Ryan?
And how much of that growth will be due to creating more private sector, for profit, government contractor jobs?
P.S. we are hiring!
Comment by zee_in_phx
2012-08-22 09:14:09
“… take America back” - i cringe every time i hear that.. who are they trying to take it back from?
I always tell so-called Patriots that it’s MY America, too. Then when they start yammering on about “strict Constitutionalism” I ask them to name five rights guaranteed by the first amendment.
Usually shuts ‘em right up.
Comment by polly
2012-08-22 12:55:20
I keep a copy of the Constitution in my backpack. With a copy of my oath of office stapled into the front.
“Hopefully nobody is stupid enough to actually attempt it.”
Wouldn’t that comment have worked well for the prospect of invading Afghanistan a decade ago, or any time over the past millennium, for that matter?
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-23 08:10:00
Yeah, except we did actually have a good reason to go there. In that case I think we should have killed OBL at the first opportunity and then left. Not built any permanent facilities. And definitely not still be there now that he’s dead.
I went to the neighborhood (largely Greek) block party over the weekend. According to most, Greece’s problems are the result of immigrants. Shiftless Albanians or Turks or…
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will speak later this month at an exclusive meeting of the world’s top economists in the shadow of the Grand Tetons in Jackson Hole, Wyo.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Every year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts a meeting of the world’s top economic minds near the small Wyoming town of Jackson Hole.
The invitation-only meeting is usually a big deal, closely watched by investors, economists and journalists. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has made market-moving announcements there in the past. But those who have been to the Jackson Hole meeting before aren’t expecting much from Bernanke when he gives a speech on August 31.
Allen Sinai, chief global economist for Decision Economics and a Jackson Hole attendee for the past 20 years, said people “will be disappointed” if they think Bernanke will signal that the Fed is ready to launch a third round of quantitative easing or QE3.
“I don’t think he’s going to say anything new,” added Catherine Mann, a finance professor at Brandeis University and former Fed economist who has attended the meeting twice.
Wall Street has high expectations for Bernanke to make a bold statement about future policy.
…
WASHINGTON — Paul Ryan, who is known in Washington as a budget hawk, brings an extra appeal to conservatives as a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to stimulate growth.
In picking Ryan, Romney shifted the conversation about the presidential race to one that starkly contrasts Republican and Democratic views on government spending and debt.
Part of that dialogue is the role of the Fed, which in the past few years has undertaken a massive effort to ease monetary policy and stimulate spending in a way that conservatives have decried as disastrous for America’s future.
As the Republican chairman of the House Budget Committee and through his membership on other House panels, Ryan has frequently verbally sparred with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, especially over the Fed’s bond buying.
After lowering interest rates to near zero in 2008 to pull the economy out of a deep recession, the Fed has bought US$2.3 trillion in bonds and mortgage-related debt to support the recovery.
But many worry the bond buying, known as quantitative easing, is setting the stage for inflation.
Ryan took Bernanke to task at a hearing in February 2011 over the Fed’s bond purchases, which the central bank used to pull down longer term interest rates.
“My concern is that the costs of the Fed’s current monetary policy — the money creation and massive balance sheet expansion — will come to outweigh the perceived short-term benefits,” Ryan said.
While one result of the Fed’s ultra-easy monetary policy has been a weaker dollar that has boosted U.S. exports, Ryan has said there is “nothing more insidious that a country can do to its citizens than debase its currency.”
Ryan has also supported moves to clip the Fed’s wings.
…
Except maybe lying about not asking for bailout money.
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Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-22 09:57:25
It is a little vague, but I think you made a mistake there. Wasn’t it more accurately stimulus money? If you admit your mistake, that would make you a what?
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-22 12:12:13
Yer right. It was stimulus money.
Now that we’ve split that hair, the point is still the FACT that lied.
Comment by Albuqueruquedan
2012-08-22 14:16:46
So did you just lie about Ryan asking for bail out money?
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-22 19:31:47
So did you just lie about Ryan asking for bail out money?
No, that was Ryan who lied. Turkey just got his words mixed up. There’s an obvious difference.
And as much as our ‘apolitical’ Blue Skye would like to spin it otherwise, Ryan LIED about not taking bailout money. He didn’t make a mistake in his phrasing. He LIED. Like a lying liar will.
GOFFSTOWN, N.H., Aug 20 (Reuters) - Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan engaged in tag-team attacks on President Barack Obama and the Federal Reserve on Monday at a joint appearance that showcased the chemistry between the Republican presidential candidate and his running mate.
Romney, 65, and Ryan, 42, took their act to New Hampshire, a swing state whose four electoral votes could play an outsize role in determining the winner in the Nov. 6 presidential election in a race that remains agonizingly close with fewer than 80 days of campaigning left.
Romney’s goal is to introduce his vice presidential pick to American voters and seek to reassure them that a Ryan-backed budget plan in the House of Representatives would not lead to dramatic cuts to the Medicare health program for seniors.
Since his candidacy was announced just over a week ago, Democrats have engaged in an assault on Ryan for promoting a Medicare plan that would change how Americans currently under age 55 would receive benefits when they retire.
The Medicare debate has changed the focus of the campaign, which had been fought for the most part on the health of the U.S. economy. The Romney campaign has sought to turn the Medicare issue into a strength by saying Romney and Ryan would repair a troubled program.
Ryan, accusing Obama of using $716 billion in Medicare funds to pay for his healthcare overhaul, told the crowd “we need this debate” about the future of the expensive entitlement program. “We’re going to win this debate about Medicare,” he said.
AUDIT THE FED
At a town hall meeting, a question about the Federal Reserve, which many conservatives feel is an overly powerful agency that lacks transparency, drew an appeal from Romney for an audit of the Fed and a demand that Obama’s own government spending be investigated.
“The answer is yes to that, very simple, the answer is yes,” Romney said when asked whether the Fed should be audited. “The Federal Reserve should be accountable. We should see what they’re doing.”
…
“My concern is that the costs of the Fed’s current monetary policy — the money creation and massive balance sheet expansion ”
Showing that Ryan doesn’t understand that the money was created when the banks made the loans to customers. Changing who the borrow owes does not create new money.
Yes, the Fed buying loans from banks should make it possible for the banks to make more loans, however the limiting factor on new loan creation is a lack of qualified borrows coming in and asking for loans. QE can not make more qualified borrows walk into banks asking for loans, therefore, no money creation. At best, QE will cause the banks to continue to buy the new treasury issues, allowing the government to create new money via deficit spending for awhile longer.
Your comment is inconsistent. The buying of the treasuries does “create” money so why is it that Ryan wrong about the federal reserve creating money, since QE is mainly about buying treasuries. It is the moneterization of the debt which is the problem and you can’t have that without Fed policy.
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Comment by polly
2012-08-22 14:11:00
You are forgetting the macro accounting identity. As long as we have a trade deficit, either government (taken as a whole) or private people or both must be taking on more debt with the sum of the extra debt equal to the trade imbalance. If the fed wasn’t buying treasuries, someone else would have to be (we’d have to be paying a lot more in interest to make that happen) or private people would have to be going into more debt, or states or someone. Mauldin goes over this all the time.
With yields at historical lows and bond *prices* at historical highs, isn’t this exactly counter intuitive to “buy low, sell high”. I mean, I know they are *giving money away* but shouldn’t we even make the tiniest effort to get some kind of value out of the money being given away?
Aug. 22, 2012, 2:13 p.m. EDT Get ready for QE3
Commentary: FOMC signals another round of bond-buying soon
By MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Get ready for QE3.
Top officials of the Federal Reserve are leaning strongly in favor of a third round of bond buying by the Fed, known colloquially as QE3, according to the minutes of the Aug. 1 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Here’s the money quote from the FOMC minutes: “Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.” Read our full news coverage of the minutes.
The economic data have stabilized since Aug. 1, but it’s not at all clear that the improvement in the economic data has been “substantial” enough to forestall further action by the Fed.
…
The fact that these economic terrorists get together in Jackson Hole is a letdown. Put them in a Motel 6 in Gary, Indiana, preferably at night. Make them walk to get their meals.
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock index futures drifted lower Wednesday, trailing losses in Asia and Europe after weak Japanese trade data underlined global growth worries as investors awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 18 points, or 0.1%, to 13,181.
Approval of Congress has matched its all-time low, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
S&P 500 index futures dropped 2.8 points, or 0.2%, to 1,409.70, while Nasdaq-100 futures declined 4.75 points to 2,769.25.
Asian equities lost ground after Japanese data showed the country swung to a trade deficit in July as exports plunged. Read: Asia stock markets pull back after gains .
The tone fed through to Europe and appeared to be casting a cloud over U.S. stock index futures as well, strategists said.
“Japan is the world’s fourth-largest exporter and markets appear to have interpreted the sharp decline in overseas sales in terms of its implications for slowing global demand,” said Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, in emailed comments.
…
I would argue that statement two turned out to be wise for many a “FB”. They spent the money or sent it to Mexico. They did not put any money down and many actually lived in the house for years for no rent before they were thrown out. Technically, the banks could come after them but since they are now unemployed or working under the table, they can declare bankruptcy.
You are welcome. I think what unites this board is the fact that most of us saw the inflated house prices caused by the cheap interest policies of the Fed and the greed of the big banks, did the “wise” thing and refused to buy and then waited for the fall in prices. However, instead of getting a real fall, government stepped in and prevented our opportunity to pick up a house really cheap. Meanwhile, all sympathy has been directed to people that did not save but got a house for nothing down at a teaser interest rate, HELOCed to the max and lived rent free for years in nice properties. I feel like throwing the stone and not the cucumber.
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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 07:01:33
Just remember, it isn’t about saving the FB’s.
It’s about saving the banksters. All those “cheap houses” many here are anxiously waiting to come on the market represent a loss to the banking cartel.
Comment by butters
2012-08-22 07:29:35
Agree with CO and also I don’t think you can get reelected with dropping house prices.
“…I don’t think you can get reelected with dropping house prices.”
+1 Self interest above what’s best for the country.
Comment by cactus
2012-08-22 09:50:01
“…I don’t think you can get reelected with dropping house prices.”
..
WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans bought more homes in July than in June and prices rose, evidence that the housing market is slowly recovering.
The National Association of Realtors says sales of previously occupied homes rose to 4.47 million in July, a 2.3 percent increase from the previous month. It was the first increase in three months.
But the recovery is slow and uneven. July sales were below the 4.6 million pace reached in April and May. And the annual sales pace is below the roughly 5.5 million that economists consider healthy.
..
Comment by Neuromance
2012-08-22 10:52:27
Just remember, it isn’t about saving the FB’s.
It’s about saving the banksters. All those “cheap houses” many here are anxiously waiting to come on the market represent a loss to the banking cartel.
This issue is about the banks and the bond market and the big players, not the house-flipping muppets who never really understood why house prices were doing what they were doing, just that they always did it, and always would.
The actual house buyers are muppets. If sacrificing them was the cost of helping the financial sector, they would be sacrificed instantaneously.
The bottom line is - either the muppets are going to pay, or the public in general is going to pay. The muppets promised to pay a lot, but there was always little chance of that, and now the system pretends their promises meant something. A lot of the big boys’ bonuses depends on those promises being kept. So the taxpayer is being bled to keep those promises.
Comment by Pete
2012-08-22 15:18:55
“+1 Self interest above what’s best for the country.”
Hallelujah! I’m a “progressive” voter, but it peeves me when people goof on the Tea Partiers (or whoever) for “voting against their own interest” due to cluelessness. Perhaps they are, but I respect that more, as it’s voting based on a larger philosophy, flawed or not, rather than an “are you better off now that you were four years ago?” type of nonsense.
Comment by Pete
2012-08-22 15:20:10
Should read “THAN you were four years ago”
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-22 19:55:59
Perhaps they are, but I respect that more, as it’s voting based on a larger philosophy, flawed or not, rather than an “are you better off now that you were four years ago?”
What is their larger philosophy? “Shrink government and government spending! (But I get to keep my Social Security and Medicare!)”
They may think they’re voting on a larger philosophy, but it’s only because they exempt themselves from its results. If they were ready to give up their own entitlements, then I’d respect them, too. They aren’t.
That’s a cool clip of the monkey . Is it any wonder that people are in a uproar about getting less than they were promised and they want to draw the line at 55 to give people less .
“3. My girlfriend is always going out with other guys so I need to marry her so I can keep her all to myself.”
Actually you should go around and personally thank the other guys for getting her out of your grill once in a while…and perhaps even sharing in the upkeep.
President Obama told congressional leaders Tuesday that he is extending a two-year pay freeze for federal employees until at least next spring because Congress has not agreed on a budget for the next fiscal year.
The freeze will stay in effect until a spending plan is passed, but the presidential election makes it unlikely that will happen before the start of fiscal 2013 on Oct. 1. As a result, the president is required by the end of August to come up with an “alternative pay plan” to avoid a legal trigger that would automatically raise federal pay in line with private-sector salaries. The alternative pay plan is usually a routine event signaling that Congress and the White House have agreed on a salary increase for federal workers.
…
Every year I have been a fed, the trigger, if it had been allowed to happen, would have increased federal pay by approximately 15%.
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Comment by palmetto
2012-08-22 08:08:04
Are you still a fed?
Comment by polly
2012-08-22 10:16:09
Yes.
Highly educated people in the federal work force are underpaid, but get to hold on to their ethics. Less educated people in the federal work force are often paid more than their private sector counterparts, but that is largely because they have many more years of service. Given how bad our computer systems are (federal budgeting requirements make big IT projects very hard to fund), loosing the experienced admin people would be a giant mess.
Comment by polly
2012-08-22 10:31:48
Darn. Losing. That “loosers” meme is getting to me.
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-22 10:34:26
That “loosers” meme is getting to me.
That’s funny. Soon none of us will remember for sure how it’s supposed to be spelled.
If Obama wins the election more government contractor jobs will be created.
If Romney wins the election more government contractor jobs will be created.
* posted from non-government contractor network (can verify the IP address with Ben)
*Acknowledging your non-government contractor network. Thank you for your cooperation, useless eater #44989u-8-8989282-fg445.
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Comment by goon squad
2012-08-22 09:02:28
Thank smithers and banana for their taxpayer dollars to pay for private sector, for profit, government contractors to do the work that federal goons won’t do
market saturation? what about all those aapl products? How long will it be before all the hedge funds jump off the aapl bandwagon? I see the stock crashing to reality at some point soon.
As long as Apple can convince the faithful to upgrade their iPhones every time a new model comes out they should be fine. And judging from my co-workers lunchtime prattle, that shouldn’t be a problem.
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Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-22 08:20:17
I shouldn’t be a problem until it is. Apple is a fad company that once completed technology. I say completed because they had no original ideas, they just put other ideas together quite well and marketed them extremely well.
Now there is enough competition in the marketplace that will allow Apple to fade into the background as they did in the 1990’s. It won’t be instant, but if they keep up their attitude of customers will buy whatever we put out, it will happen.
Comment by Housing Is A Massive Loss
2012-08-22 08:41:54
“Now there is enough competition in the marketplace that will allow Apple to fade into the background as they did in the 1990’s. It won’t be instant, but if they keep up their attitude of customers will buy whatever we put out, it will happen.”
Andy hit a home run.
Comment by samk
2012-08-22 08:48:47
Once upon a time, Apple machines were sold with what was considered superior technology. SCSI, Motorola processors, Firewire. And a rep for better layout/graphic design tools. A premium was understandable.
Now, there is nothing you can do with a premium priced Mac that you can’t do just as well with a homebuilt Windows\Linux system. OS X is nice, and inexpensive. It can be made to run on non-Apple hardware. And open source OS/apps are getting better every day.
iPhones and iPads are nice and some family members want iPods, but when I tell them what they cost….they stick with their Zens and Zunes.
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-08-22 09:36:39
Andy why hasn’t anyone come out with a fully functioning mini pc…that uses 65 watts instead of 250-350+ watts
I know the PC was meant for the hobbyist to upgrade….
Now there is enough competition in the marketplace that will allow Apple to fade into the background as they did in the 1990’s
Comment by polly
2012-08-22 10:18:09
If they win their patent suits, they’ll be just fine without doing anything new at all. They can just charge everyone else for immitating their designs at a much lower price point.
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-22 10:31:46
If you read into the judge’s strong suggestion of working out a deal in the most recent Samsung case, you know that the patent case isn’t holding water.
Comment by polly
2012-08-22 10:39:46
Judges don’t strongly recommend a deal because the plaintiff is flat out wrong. They recommend a deal when they think there is some merit in the case but they don’t want to have it clogging up their court room for 2 years.
Linux can be run on PC’s, but you get a Neanderthal era GUI with it. That won’t fly with most PC users.
Macs will always be “boutique” systems that are pricey. Ditto the iPad, which is an upper middle class toy and status symbol. I don’t travel much, but earlier this year I did, and was astounded by the number of iPads I saw at the airports, in the hands of the well to do.
What will be interesting to watch will be the duke out between Droid and iPhone, which I think is Apple’s most vulnerable position.
The iPod has its market all sewn up. I don’t even know anyone who uses a Zune or a generic MP3 player.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 11:16:18
and some family members want iPods, but when I tell them what they cost….they stick with their Zens and Zunes
Huh? You can get a shuffle for as little as $49.
The Zune? It was discontinued last year.
Comment by samk
2012-08-22 11:18:50
Guess you haven’t used Linux in the past 4 years or so. “Neanderthal era GUI” is completely off the mark.
Comment by samk
2012-08-22 11:41:43
“If you read into the judge’s strong suggestion of working out a deal in the most recent Samsung case, you know that the patent case isn’t holding water.”
Is that the patent case over Samsung’s tablet looking like a tablet?
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-08-22 11:54:51
Macs will always be “boutique” systems that are pricey. Ditto the iPad, which is an upper middle class toy and status symbol. I don’t travel much, but earlier this year I did, and was astounded by the number of iPads I saw at the airports, in the hands of the well to do.
I know someone like that. Every e-mail I get says that it’s sent from her iPad.
Okay, I get it, sweetie.
You have a high-paying CEO job, so of course you’re rocking an iPad. Does your sigfile need to rub it in?
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-22 12:55:59
I agree those sigs are really annoying. The reason you see them is that Apple sets them as the default and most people don’t bother or don’t know how to change it.
Best Buy can not survive as the show room for Amazon.
People go it Best Buy, try out products, decide what they want to buy, then buy it from an online source that will deliver it to their door for 20-40% less, and no sales tax.
After Christmas I got an open box TV at Best Buy. I got a great price on it. I hadn’t been in before for quite some time and I haven’t been back since. If I could be assured of the same kind of value every time I’d shop there more.
This doesn’t mean that the party’s gunning to get rid of the mortgage-interest deduction any time soon. Removing the language may, in fact, help the Republican Party drive home the message that it’s committed to tax reform, as Talent suggests. But Romney has suggested that he’d largely preserve the mortgage-interest deduction, excluding it from the (yet to be specified) loopholes that he plans to close to support his tax plan.
“I have noted before my commitment to preserve tax preferences for middle-income taxpayers such as homeownership, charitable giving and health care,” he told Fortune in a recent interview. Romney has promised to get rid of the tax deduction for second homes, but that would only save about $10 billion annually from a tax break that costs the government $100 billion a year, according to the Tax Policy Center.
Harvard economist Edward Glaeser sees a lot of problems with the government’s home mortgage policies in that they’re pushing American families out of energy-efficient cities and into the suburbs, where the cost of living is higher and it’s harder to save money.
Now in his new paper, he argues the only people benefiting from the home mortgage interest deduction are the richest Americans. Citing a 2008 study, he notes that families who earn between $40,000 and $75,000 only save $523/year whereas those in the $250,000 and up club are pocketing a whopping $5,459/year.
“From a purely economic perspective, the regressive nature of the tax deduction may be problematic because it suggests that the deduction is poorly targeted,” he says. “From a narrow economic perspective, the fact that the benefit goes disproportionately toward more prosperous individuals raises doubts about whether it effectively encourages homeownership.”
The home mortgage interest deduction also does little to help the middle class. Returning to the 2008 paper, Glaeser says that most middle-income homeowners don’t even bother to itemize their annual tax returns, which tips the scales in wealthy Americans’ favor and helps them reap more benefits.
I’ve mentioned this before. You don’t have to be a 1%er to get a big boost from the MID if you are also making a 10% charitable contribution to your church. And people in that category do tend to vote R, or so I hear.
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Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 08:58:02
There are only 6 million Mormons in the entire USA. To put that into perspective, there are more Catholics in the metro LA area alone.
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-22 09:58:48
I thought there were plenty of other religions whose members also tithed? Including Catholics?
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-22 13:07:51
Nearly all Christian denominations tell you to give 10%. The Mormans are a bit more strict about it, kind of like the Catholics used to be. They used to post the parish members who didn’t tithe in the bulletin…yikes!
Our catholic church published the weekly donations in the bulletin sorted in descending order.
My family was always near the bottom at $2 / week. Not a bad deal when it included an education and school bussing for 3 children.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 14:16:16
I thought there were plenty of other religions whose members also tithed? Including Catholics?
In what universe would that be, LOL!
<i.The Mormans are a bit more strict about it, kind of like the Catholics used to be.
My understanding is that to be in good standing in the LDS, that a 10% tithe is mandatory. There is no such requirement in the RCC
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-22 14:24:22
Depends on your definition of “good standing”, but yes.
So are you saying that Mormons are the only ones paying their tithing to the point where they declare it on their taxes? I know that I have heard discussion among people of other religions that implied that they were.
Anyway, whatever percentage of people that ends up being, those people get much more from the MID than someone might think based on their income.
Comment by TheNYCdb
2012-08-22 20:00:21
If the 10% tithe is mandatory for membership does that mean its not tax deductible. I used to pay $250 membership to the gardens at wave hill (a botanical garden setup as a charity), but it wasn’t deductible because I got membership out of it.
i am all for phasing in the removal of the mortgage interest deduction but this mindset drives me crazy.
one of the things i agree with the republicans on is that this accepted notion that all the money is the government’s…and anything you keep is a cost to the goverment is ludicrous…and frightening.
* Tianjin plan report fuels fiscal stimulus speculation
* Tianjin government spokesman says has no knowledge of plan
* Report is latest of a string on unfunded, multi-year initiatives
* S&P says China has room to spend, but warns of risks
By Koh Gui Qing
BEIJING, Aug 22 (Reuters) - China can afford to deliver a fiscal stimulus for its sagging economy, but would risk making bad investments, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said on Wednesday as Chinese media fuelled speculation that a fresh spending boost was on the way.
In its new report, S&P said a mountain of debt left behind by a stimulus package that helped China fend off global recession four years ago has curbed Beijing’s appetite for a big stimulus this time round.
“Inefficient spending can impair China’s future growth trend,” the report said. “It could also deepen the damage of the last round of stimulus spending by further weakening the balance sheets of governments and commercial banks and raising future financing costs across the economy.”
S&P’s comments came as local media reported that Tianjin, a port on the northeastern coast that was one of China’s two fastest growing cities last year, was planning a multi-year investment programme worth $236 billion.
Though it is equivalent to around 150 percent of the city’s annual economic output, the only reference to the plan was a newspaper article on the city government’s website saying it exists.
The 1.5 trillion yuan plan envisages spending in 10 major sectors including petrochemicals, port equipment, new energy cars, and aerospace industries, yet a spokesman for the city government contacted by Reuters denied any knowledge of it.
There were no details of where the cash would come from or if it was in addition to sums already committed in official five-year economic plans.
A day earlier there were reports that the southwest city of Chongqing will also invest 1.5 trillion yuan into seven industries over the next three years. Several Chongqing officials also said they did not know of the plan.
Last month media reported Hunan’s Changsha city had launched a 829 billion yuan investment program, though there has been nothing official on the local government’s website since.
The reports have met with skepticism among analysts, and for all the hopes that the central government will deliver a fiscal stimulus, they warned against expecting too much at this stage.
The Chinese media has reported on a string of ambitious investment plans in the past month - including Wuhan, Ningbo and Guizhou - feeding talk that China is readying a giant government spending scheme to lift an economy mired in its worst downturn in three years, forecast to see growth cool to a 13-year low of 8 percent in 2012. …
Keynes said that in AN OTHERWISE SOUND ECONOMY, government deficits or surpluses could be used to flatten the business cycle.
We’ve created flat-ish tax environments where the rich continually get richer, and the only way to keep economies functioning with so much money flowing out of active circulation into the hands of the few, is to contently be borrowing ever larger sums of new money into existence.
In a flat-ish tax environment, the only time the rich spend is if it will produces a positive RoI, meaning they get ever richer. We need a very steep tax code with very high top marginal rate and lots of deductions, to act as a stick to get the rich to spend simply because the negative RoI is still better than the tax!
Unless, of course, you can think of another way to get the rich to spend huge sums of money at a negative RoI, or some other way other than debt to contently be replacing the money into circulation that the rich getting richer drains from the economy….
People attack my ideas, but I don’t see them coming up with their own ideas for how to stop living on debt in the face of massive trade imbalances that drain money from circulation….
A grand compromise between the fossil fuel people and the green technologies. We have vast oil & gas resources off our coasts, ANWR etc and hundreds of years of coal. We could become energy independent and reduce are trade deficit by hundreds of billions a year by eliminating imported oil. So here is the compromise we exploit those resources but we use some of royalties and taxes to make a major push in solar and wind. Hopefully, within a few decades the price of the alternatives will be price competitive without the subsidies.
I was against drilling in ANWR when the price of oil was $10 a barrel but at $100 you can afford to protect the environment and still drill. Also, there is probably not a better time to use our fossil fuels since we will hit maximum price within a few years since after that declining prices in alternative energy sources should lead to hydrogen fueled or electric cars. That will cap the price of oil. Yes this is only a 30 year solution but as Keynes would say, we are all dead in the long run.
You can solve the trade deficit and most of budget deficit with this proposal. As far as your proposal just try raising taxes on the rich that much and they will move to Asia. When we use to tax people at the 75% or 95% rate, they had no where to move where they were not facing a similar tax. Not true anymore, just look what happened with the Facebook billionaire who moved with just our existing rates.
All the Oil under ANWR and other protected areas in Alaska is maybe 10B barrels. Under the Dakotas is another 5B extractable. Off the coasts are another 5B or so.
Net imports are 8.4M barrels a day = 3B a year. So, we’re talking enough oil, IF we could exploit it all, and if a big chunk of that didn’t just go to replacing current production as our current wells age, for 6-7 years of imports.
I’m sure the companies that can profit hundreds of billions of dollars off that oil are very eager to drill baby, drill. I’m not sure it is ANYTHING close to a sound, long-term economic policy.
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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 09:07:42
You are confusing reserve with resource. U.S. has just had around 24 billion barrels of reserves for decades yet we just keep producing that is because the resource is always much greater than the reserve. Increase each of your numbers of one order of magnitude and it would probably be right. Plus you can do coal to liquid plants and convert NG directly to gasoline if you want. We could reach energy independence if we want particularly with an increased contribution from alternative energy and new nuclear using better technology.
Long term? We have to deal with a massive trade deficit and budget deficit now. The new technologies part is the long term. Look right now I fight with some members of this board over global warming since I believe that only 10-15% of the warming that occurred between 1977-98 was due to Co2 emissions. I fully believe that within five years I will be fighting with ditto heads that will be saying see all the global warming was caused by nature and the cooling proves that. It is the price you pay when you try to make decisions on facts and not ideology.
In the Southwest the Hopi have been devasted by CA decision to close a coal fired electric plant in Nevada which they supplied with coal. The budget cuts impacted people that would love to have the income of a lucky ducky. The risks on a failure to getting the science right on global warming are not all in favor of cutting emissions. Even much higher electric rates impact the poor more.
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-22 10:21:38
10-15% seems like an arbitrary number. Just remember that we were just as concerned about another ice age in the 1970’s. I’m in the natural order of things camp. We don’t understand enough about climate change to label what’s man made vs. what occurs naturally.
Comment by Albuqueruquedan
2012-08-22 11:10:23
The 10-15% figure was based on a peer reviewed paper that argued that co2 was only 1/7 the warming agent that other models assumed. It was published in 80’s and despite trying to find it, I cannot. I think the work has been vindicated over the years by the lack of warming over the last 15 years. However, even a warming of .14 degrees instead of 1 degree per decade is a major problem over enough decades. But since both the PDO and sunspots will prevent warming for the next few decades we do not need to move now before alternative energy is ready. We may even prevent some really cold temperatures such as I experienced in Vermont growing up in the 70’s. But when nature swings back to warming around 2030 we don’t want to be adding additional co2 on a parts per million basis.
Dan, you can obfuscate and pontificate here all you like, but the fact remains that you are wrong. And you work for an industry that depends upon obfuscation and pontification for its survival. In that sense, how are your canned talking points any different from Smithers’s?
Your posts on this subject sound like nothing so much as the States Rights people in the sixties trying to justify “scientifically” why the “Negro Problem” had to be approached gradually so the country didn’t suffer a huge shock to its system. Or more recently, the increasingly shrill justifications against gay marriages.
Please think about this?
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 13:32:24
Until you can explain how we can have 15 years of no global warming when co2 is suppose to be the primary driver of global warming you are the one that is engaged in pontification. The science community is increasing agreeing that they got the science wrong on global warming. Not that there is not global warming but their numbers were way off. BTW, you might also explain why the ice caps on Mars decreased during the last 70 years too. Not too many SUVs there. Don’t think it had anything to do with the most sunspots in 8000 years? For hundreds of years man has observed that low number of sunspots translates to low temperatures and vice versa. Because modern science cannot explain the exact mechanism does not make them wrong.
Your posts on this subject sound like nothing so much as the States Rights people in the sixties trying to justify “scientifically” why the “Negro Problem” had to be approached gradually so the country didn’t suffer a huge shock to its system. Or more recently, the increasingly shrill justifications against gay marriages.
Yeah Dan, don’t be relying on science, fess up to your racism and gay hatred!
Besides, your science is all wrong, the science of the left is all peer reviewed and funded and backed by all real scientist and Nancy Pelosi also Algore got a peace prize or something. That’s how science works, by consensus of the majority and which side got the oscar.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 13:52:35
Yes, I am a racist homophobic person for believing in science and logic. BTW, I have never worked for a coal or oil company. But if I ever did why is science funded by people that want to find global warming (Government and UN) to justify taxes and regulation, less bias than science funded by coal or oil companies?
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 14:36:55
the science of the left is all peer reviewed
The science on the right and especially the “science” of the plurality of the right’s base is far inferior to the science on the left. It is not even a debatable discussion. Only 6% of scientists even CLAIM they are Republican. Why?
IDK. Maybe they feel embarrassed that their ancestors had dinosaurs as pets? Or maybe because they didn’t know that in legitimate rape the women can’t get pregnant? Maybe they didn’t hear yet that the fossil record was God’s way to trick us into thinking the world was more than 6000 years old. Or they never realized that massive pollution on a global scale could be so darn good for the environment. I don’t get it.
The science on the right and especially the “science” of the plurality of the right’s base is far inferior to the science on the left. It is not even a debatable discussion.
There you go again, you cannot settle a scientific question by making it a popularity contest. Your argument is just plain silly.
Then you throw in dinosaurs, rape, god and what’s good for the environment. Amazing
The global warming science has taken hit after hit after hit, things like the warming not happening for well over a decade, the Himalayan glacier prediction was bunk, altered and bunk data, climate gate, …
Definitive science or at least predictions of the models proving to be true needs to occur as opposed to attacking any science that doesn’t support your side.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 15:26:26
Then you throw in dinosaurs, rape, god and what’s good for the environment. Amazing
What IS amazing is how damn dumb the plurality of America’s right-wing’s base IS on science. It’s an embarrassment to my country and I hear it from foreign tourists in Rio all the time. USA is becoming a joke on these issues. They laugh at the ignorance. Trust me.
I threw in dinosaurs, evolution, rape, God and environment because they touch upon issues that represent prime examples of Republican JUNK SCIENCE beliefs.
It is beyond moronic. It is ignorance so profound that it is dangerous.
I spent a lot of time in Latin America growing up. If I spent some time with individuals, they would usually open up and tell me what they didn’t like about the US. It was stuff like lending the govts money then forcing things on them. Invading, CIA stuff.
So how do your tourists feel about what Obama did to the elected government in Honduras? Did you know the DEA is down there shooting unarmed women from helicopters? That’s your lovely ‘left’ in action.
Basically, I’m not buying your left\right love/hate view from down south. I know better. They don’t know left in right in the US. They just feel the constant pressure and oppression from our policies, including the current president.
‘It is ignorance so profound that it is dangerous’
Maybe you should write Obama and tell him to take them out with drones. He’s asserted that authority already, and maybe you can convince them about these ‘dangerous’ people who don’t agree with you.
I miss the days when people could think what they liked and others would defend their right to do so.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 16:32:25
I spent a lot of time in Latin America growing up.
The American right-wing was not stupid on science when you were growing up so this would not have come up.
‘I hear it from foreign tourists in Rio’ Well that’s conclusive evidence for sure.
It is conclusive evidence that I do hear it.
Did you know the DEA is down there shooting unarmed women from helicopters?
No. That sucks.
Basically, I’m not buying your left\right love/hate view from down south. I know better.
You obviously do not know better and you sure don’t know about Brazil or the makeup of the ZonaSul tourists. I’m in contact with educated foreigners and Brazilians on a regular basis. The one’s who know anything about the American political system side’s beliefs (and there are many) think the right’s science and religion injected into politics is a complete joke and dangerous. (War’s anyone?)
Maybe you should write Obama and tell him to take them out with drones.
Like the Republicans would have less? Sure they would.
maybe you can convince them about these ‘dangerous’ people who don’t agree with you
The right-wing’s “junk science” and their over injecting their religion into politics IS dangerous. (Religious Wars and End of Days anyone?)
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 16:35:01
Calling the right dumb doesn’t accomplish anything.
Sometimes a mirror accomplishes something. The right-wing has become dumb on many issues of science the past 30 years. It will do them no favors going forward IMO.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 16:41:39
They (Brazilians and tourists) don’t know left in right in the US.
Many of the educated Brazilians and tourists know the basic differences of Dems/Repubs. Unlike Brazil and Europe, (which have many political parties) USA is very easy to characterize politically. We only have 2 parties that are more polarized than at any time in our lives. It’s easy for the media in Brazil, Asia and Europe to make gross generalities.
Many Brazilians and tourists know American left/right stereotypes and they follow American PRESIDENTIAL elections closer than Americans think. And many think the right’s “science” and religion are a bit weird.
“Thinking what you like” and presenting opinion as science are antithetical. (I’m pretty sure that was Rio’s point.)
When you were growing up, science was still ascendant in the USA, and not considered the province of “leftists” by partisan interests who manipulated established scientific facts into religious and political issues.
Nice deflection. Where is your high horse on Obama executing US citizens, like the 17 YO in Yemen who hadn’t done anything? How does ‘junk science’ compare to killing citizens without even charging them with a crime? Or installing a military junta in central America?
You basically want to shut people up. I’ll move on and let you argue with like minded posters.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 20:25:30
‘Like the Republicans would have less’…killing citizens without even charging them…
Nice deflection.
It’s not a deflection. It is a valid comparison in the context of an election where we have only 2 realistic choices. What is the point in bashing one of only 2 candidates on an issue without considering the other candidate’s party’s position or history? There is no point.
Voting for a Republican because a Democrat had set up a military junta in central America would fly in the face of the history of the numerous military juntas that the Republicans have set up in Latin America.
You basically want to shut people up.
No. I’m looking for a logical debate on facts and issues. I rarely find it from the far-right. If I “shut them up”, so be it.
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-08-22 21:18:58
I blame the progressives, they have a history of anti-Americanism, anti-humanism, subversion and lies.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 21:29:58
I blame the progressives, they have a history of anti-Americanism, anti-humanism, subversion and lies.
lol…..Yea right….. Listen up to some history. The progressives founded America, they ended slavery, the progressives fought for the women’s right to vote, civil rights and the middle-class.
Dude….you sound so ignorant of the country you call yours.
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-08-22 21:40:08
“Dude….you sound so ignorant of the country you call yours.”
Calling me names will not help you counter the facts stated in my previous post.
“…they have a history of anti-Americanism, anti-humanism, subversion and lies….”
Coming from an immigrant, that takes some serious nerve. Rio is right. You truly ARE ignorant of the history of the country you call “yours” — as well as its founding precepts, apparently. Shame on you.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 22:43:25
Calling me names will not help you counter the facts stated in my previous post.
There were no “facts” in your post. Yours was ignorant opinion imo.
And I did not call you names. I said you sounded ignorant of your country’s history. That is the only fact in our last 2 posts to each other.
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-08-22 23:15:18
“Shame on you.”
No, shame on the progressives. The political equivalent of cancer.
I know, maybe you can cool down the atmosphere by forcing evil capitalist city dwellers into urban communes and banning private property - Pol Pot style.
“As far as your proposal just try raising taxes on the rich that much and they will move to Asia.”
Which is why the return to an economically sound tax code needs to be done in conjunction with a tax on money leaving the country.
It doesn’t matter where you live, if you have to pay the tax when you try to take your profits/revenues out of the USA.
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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 09:19:20
A lot of the money they are making in U.S. could be made outside the country. Most of the functions of wall street really can be done in London or Dubai in which case we get 0 dollars in taxes if they move. They already are manufacturing most everything outside the U.S. and they could move the rest outside to avoid anyU.S. tax liability. The law of unintended consequences is ready to bite you in the Azz on the this one.
The states that have tried this have not fared well. Texas just received a four billion dollar investment by Samsung because of its pro-business and low tax policies. California is broke. When Reagan cut taxes we became a low tax magnet, now we are really a high tax country despite the Bush cuts. I do think there is a problem that a civilized society needs a certain level of revenue and no matter how much additional production lower taxes cause if the tax rate is a zero no revenue is produced. Thus, this race to the lower tax rates has a limit but that said we need to be somewhat competitive with the rest of the world on taxes.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 09:33:56
One of the reasons that Ireland seems to be doing better than a Spain or a Greece despite massive debt causing austerity is because it has a lower tax rate which does annoy the rest of Europe. From Wikipedia:
Over the past decade, Ireland’s corporate taxation system has been a source of controversy with some of Ireland’s fellow-member states in the European Union. The French government has over the past decade, most particularly during the premiership of Lionel Jospin, consistently condemned and criticised the Irish corporation tax system. This criticism is based on the belief that the low corporation tax rates enabled Ireland to compete unfairly in attracting international investment. However, despite the French critique of the Irish corporate tax system, the Irish example has won many followers, with many ‘emerging’ and Eastern European economies following the Irish example.
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-22 10:02:49
Sounds like you’re saying “civilized society” may not be competitive with less civilized society…at least until things are so uncivilized you can no longer produce efficiently?
Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-22 10:06:11
We could stop wasting so much energy.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 10:12:09
Carl, that is the problem. Especially is a problem, if we absorb the costs of things like education and basic research for the world and developing nations do the production.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 11:37:06
Ireland seems to be doing better than a Spain or a Greece….because it has a lower tax rate which does annoy the rest of Europe.
It doesn’t annoy Germany, Norway Sweden, Denmark, Holland, etc. who all have higher taxes and better economies than Ireland now. Low corporate taxes do not mean prosperity for the populations.
Ireland 14.8%
France 10.1%
Holland 6.5
Sweden 7.5
Denmark 4.5 (May)
Norway 3.0
Germany 6.8%
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-22 11:52:10
“A lot of the money they are making in U.S. could be made outside the country.”
Good. Because the idea of generating revenue from American’s, then using it to pay a work force in Asia, is unsustainable as continuing to generate that revenue in America requires American’s go ever deeper into debt.
Let them generate revenue in Asia and use it to pay people in Asia. Keep the revenue generated in the USA, in the USA. And use a hefty tax to ensure the revenue doe not just up in the hands of an ever smaller number of people.
Keep the existing money in the country, and keep it moving, so that we do not need to constantly borrow more money into existence to keep the economy functioning.
This really isn’t that hard to understand. Yes, it would be WONDERFUL if the economy could have massive trade deficits that make some people ever richer, and for that economy to function without unsustainable debt growth…. It would be WONDERFUL if EVERYONE could spend less than they earn, accumulating money….
It would be just as WONDERFUL, and every bit as impossible, to invent a candy crapping unicorn that kept the entire global population well nourished on rainbows, butterflies and magic glitter.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 12:08:16
Just happen to leave out Spain and Greece? I was talking about countries that were forced into austerity. Ireland had a banking collapse.
Comment by Blue Skye
2012-08-22 12:14:43
Prosperity is in building houses that can’t be paid for.
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-22 12:19:00
He didn’t leave it out, just rendered it complete and utterly moot.
He just proved that other European countries with higher corporate taxes are doing better than Ireland, thus proving your conclusion false and your argument lost.
Logic is not your strong suit, is it?
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 12:23:42
Rio this may help: Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Economy, Society KeeptalkingGreece is the website.
Greek’s never ending Calvary: Unemployment. Every month, a new record. Unemployment reached 22.5% in April – in comparison 21.9% a month earlier and 16.2% a year earlier. According to Eurostat, Greece has the second-highest unemployment rate within the European Union, after Spain that sadly leads with 24.8% (June data).
All three countries have imposed austerity although I think Ireland has tried to protect its low tax status more. At least its corporate rate. Perhaps in the case of Greece and Spain the austerity has not resulted in more tax revenue since raising rates can actually result in less economic activity and less taxes. Since that was my original point thanks for starting this part of the thread.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 12:30:24
Looks like Ireland is at least growing unlike many other countries in the Euro zone
July 4, 2012
Recessionary conditions are deepening throughout Euroland, and worsening banking sector problems in a number of ‘peripheral’ nations are exacerbating the economic slump and undercutting confidence. Deteriorating conditions in the Eurozone will have an even greater impact on trade and credit flows both at home and abroad, reverberations that are contributing to a further moderation in world output.
The global economic backdrop remains very challenging for the Irish economy, with key export markets in the Eurozone and UK especially weak. As a result, Ireland’s economic recovery is likely to remain quite subdued, with real GDP growth of less than 1.0% on the card this year. We are forecasting a rise in GDP of 0.5%. Still, a positive out-turn for the second year running in 2012 would be a healthy development especially as many Euroland countries should see a contraction in national output and the Eurozone as a whole is set to record a fall in GDP.
The export sector will be the key driver of Ireland’s economic recovery in the short-term at least and the performance over the past year or so has been relatively strong all things considered. Despite the slowdown in the global economy, it is clear that Ireland has a very healthy and dynamic export model, helped by its focus on recession proof goods. Overall, Ireland is in our view in a much better position than other Eurozone ‘peripheral’ debt countries to move forward once world growth picks up again.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 12:39:13
Turkey can you read that? Compare that with Spain and Greece? Lets just try to compare apples with apples. The low taxes did not cause the Irish banks to fail but they are allowing it recover and it does not have the twenty five percent unemployment of Spain and Greece. BTW, on the LSAT I was in the 99% range on logic to answer your question.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 12:50:28
Ireland is at least growing
“Growing” does not necessarily measure a country’s prosperity anymore. Ireland “growing” with 15% unemployment tells you something about “growing”.
USA’s GDP is “growing” too but most Americans are not sharing in the “growing” as we used to.
The only things growing in the USA are the GDP, debt and Rich American’s balance sheet.
This is what happens with gross wealth and income inequality. And cutting the taxes on the rich for 30 years have made things worse.
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-22 13:26:52
15% UE is something to admire?
You have got to be kidding.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 13:54:40
Rio this may help….Since that was my original point thanks for starting this part of the thread.
No. Your point was not simply comparing Greece/Spain’s taxes/economies with Ireland’s. Your original point mentioned France and “the rest of Europe” and the implication was that lower corporate taxes make for better economies which I disproved.
June-July 1012 Unemployment rates:
Ireland 14.8% (With all their “low corporate taxes)
France 10.1%
Holland 6.5
Sweden 7.5
Denmark 4.5 (May)
Norway 3.0
Germany 6.8% sources: eurostat, tradingeconomics dot com
just try raising taxes on the rich that much and they will move to Asia.
Move to Asia? I don’t think so at all. A few yea, but a lot? No. First of all, that could be cracked down upon as easily as raising the rich’s taxes.
Besides, do you know what it is like to move to a foreign country? Most don’t have it in them no matter their wealth. The FB guy who left America was a Brazilian way before he was a Gringo.
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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 11:13:42
I know but he still left and many others have renounced citizenship to avoid taxes. You do not have to lose many billionaires to lose a lot of taxes even if they are just paying 15% of their income in taxes to due to capital gains policy.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 11:30:59
People might thump their chests when threatening to leave, but the bottom line is that anywhere else you are a foreigner (even if you buy citizenship).
When the global meltdown happens you’re gonna wanna be in the USA, with it’s might military machine protecting you.
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-22 12:59:26
When the global meltdown happens you’re gonna wanna be in the USA, with it’s might military machine protecting you.
As long as the perimeter includes you, anyway.
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-22 13:15:14
So? This juvenile and stupid argument about leaving if the taxes are to high assumes no one else can make a lot of money and employ people.
There are 10’s of THOUSANDS of people who WISH they had that kind of income and would gladly and WILLINGLY pay those kind of taxes.
So hit the trail. We dare you. 99% of this country isn’t going to miss you and WILL get along just fine, thrive even! without you. because you ARE just as replaceable as the poorer people you despise.
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-08-22 20:36:16
I know but he still left and many others have renounced citizenship to avoid taxes.
Good frikkin’ riddance! Let them crash the economies of their new sucker/countries.
If we had started phasing down our use of petro-fuels when Carter tried to mandate that we do so, we’d be using non-carbon based energy sources already, and our oil wars, economic imbalances, climate/pollution issues, and flagrant waste of natural resources would largely be behind us.
But no, he was the “worst President ever” according to the oiligarchy and its sheeple.
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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 13:12:09
If it was possible why didn’t the socialistic countries develop solar and leave U.S. in the dust? They still can’t produce energy from solar at competive prices. See Spain, although they recently changed to a conservative government due to the collapse in their economy, BTW, I think Obama now deserves the title so Carter falls to number 2.
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-22 13:18:04
You still aren’t paying attention.
They have. Did. Done.
Next the thing you will be saying is why didn’t they develop high speed trains if it was such a good idea.
Oh wait… they did. Where’s ours?
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 13:37:49
If the prices are competitive why are they cutting back on solar when they are only up to 3 to 4% of their total yearly electric generation is solar energy, in Germany? Why does Spain have 25% unemployment and plummenting green jobs. Ireland at 15% and a growing economy is much better off.
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-22 13:51:28
Where DO you get your lies?
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 14:02:01
why didn’t the socialistic countries develop solar and leave U.S. in the dust?
Not much solar but Brazil’s “socialist” 30 year program enabled them to become energy independent unlike USA’s “free-market” 30 year energy FAILURE.
USA could have done it too with a “socialist” 30 year program and the USA would have been a much greater and stronger nation for it, but investing in one’s country to be great is now called “socialist”.
Brazil found 2 more offshore oilfields the past month. Go figure.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 14:05:31
What lie Turkey? Check wikipedia for the solar numbers, check the Internet for the unemployment numbers in Spain and Ireland. Your Saul Alinsky tactics do not work with me. He was one of the most vile humans ever to walk the earth. He admired the tactics of the mafia. He may be Obama’s hero but he does not impress me.
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2012-08-22 14:35:59
“Your Saul Alinsky tactics do not work with me. He was one of the most vile humans ever to walk the earth. He admired the tactics of the mafia.
Who is Saul Alinsky? Which mafia tactics did he admire? I don’t have to admire the character of Dennis Rodman to recognize that he made a place for himself by specializing. I might even recommend that tactic.
He may be Obama’s hero but he does not impress me.”
Really? How do you know this?
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-08-22 21:31:05
“But no, he was the “worst President ever” according to the oiligarchy and its sheeple.”
He WAS the worst President ever, now we have a new front runner.
Speaking of those two guys, the middle east would have been much better off without the Carter and Obama Administrations, mostly due to both of them facilitating the spread of radical Islam.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 22:50:25
(Carter) WAS the worst President ever, now we have a new front runner.
Worst?? Are you from Albania or something? Not America right? …..Man…….Gosh……..How old are you? 15? Carter is considered in the middle of the pack now. And he is rated better and better as time goes along. Check wiki. Check …….awe man forget it….you are lost in right-wing, modern day propaganda………..you are sleepy…..you feel sleepy…..
Aug. 22, 2012, 9:02 a.m. EDT
Romney adviser suggests Bernanke should stay
By Steve Goldstein
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Glenn Hubbard, an economics adviser to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, said in an interview late Tuesday that the ex-Massachusetts governor would consider renominating Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke when his term expires in 2014. Romney has previously said he’d get rid of Bernanke. “Ben is a model technocrat. He gets paid nothing for getting kicked around all the time. I think they ought to pat him on the back,” Hubbard said in an interview with Reuters TV. Hubbard, the dean of the Columbia Business School, said he was opposed to the Fed launching a third round of bond buying.
I’m starting to think this might be a 1980 type blowout….
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who is out-fundraising President Barack Obama by impressive margins, is attracting thousands of donors this summer from traditionally Democratic areas of the United States, collecting millions of dollars in even progressive communities from New York to Los Angeles, according to an analysis by The Associated Press of new campaign data.
Donors from tony neighborhoods of Manhattan to even the famously liberal Castro neighborhood in San Francisco helped Romney and the GOP outraise Obama by more than $25 million in July, beating him and the Democratic Party in contributions for a third consecutive month, the AP analysis showed.
Romney collected at least $630,000 by mid-summer from New York City, the home to major Romney fundraiser and New York Jets owner Woody Johnson. More than $100,000 of that came from investment bankers, who have cooled to Obama since he supported tougher regulations for Wall Street following the financial meltdown and housing crisis in recent years.
More than 2,000 miles away on the West Coast, Romney collected at least $350,000 since June in the San Francisco Bay Area alone, with average contributions of $400 apiece. The Bay Area is also the home of Dick Boyce, a former partner of Romney’s at Bain Capital and a GOP super PAC donor who is active in fundraising for Romney this election.
In Denver, the home of the 2008 Democratic National Convention, Romney supporters this summer contributed more than $400,000 - enough to pay rent, utilities and staff for a campaign field office. And in Philadelphia, where Obama handily beat Sen. John McCain four years ago, Romney took in more than $250,000 since early June.
“I’m starting to think this might be a 1980 type blowout….”
The Iowa Electronic Market Presidential Election Futures suggest otherwise, Smitherin. Both the Vote Share Market prices and the Winner Takes All market prices show a widening price gap in Obama’s favor since the Ryan Veep candidacy announcement.
I don’t think Iowa market and Intrades are valid anymore. They give too much credence to the power of incumbency. My theory is we are entering in a long chain of one-term presidency. People will throw the bums out every election.
“They give too much credence to the power of incumbency.”
They give credence to whatever those buying the futures think will make them money, which is whatever factors the individual market participants believe will decide the election.
Your argument is that those IEM futures market participants are (irrationally) less informed than you are, because they (foolishly) are basing their trades on a factor that will not decide the election outcome.
By the way, how did you divine a preponderance of trades are based on giving too much credence to the power of incumbency? Or do you just not understand how markets work?
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Comment by butters
2012-08-22 12:52:40
By the way, how did you divine a preponderance of trades are based on giving too much credence to the power of incumbency? Or do you just not understand how markets work?
You post a lot of markets, so you must know this undeniable truth. Everyone of the market is rigged including the election market.
Exactly. I am voting against every incumbent, regardless of affiliation. It’s the only thing I can think of, if done en mass, that could counteract special interest.
Actually, I’m not so sure Smithers isn’t right. A buddy of mine, who is on disability, food stamps and some other goodies, and who is an Amy Goodman-listening, anti-fundy confirmed progressive, confessed to me yesterday that he is seriously considering voting for Romney. He even went so far as to say that Akin made a gaffe and should be left alone (although he took it back when he listened to the Huckabee clip and Akin inserted his foot all the way down his throat).
Needless to say, I was in complete shock, as he and I have had many fierce political arguments over the years. And I can tell you that progs are just as blindly devoted to their media pundits and talking points as are Limbaugh and Glen Beck audiences.
What has been swinging him to the right are some of the very obvious atrocities Obama has brought about, such as giving himself the power of life or death over US citzens without due process of the law. And the recent administrative “amnesty” to the children of illegal immigrants.
I’m seeing/hearing the same type of anectodal stuff as well. I have a died in the wool Democrat friend who was drunk on Obama Kool-Aid in 2008. This year, no bumper stickers on the Subaru. No yard sign. No endless Facebook harassment from her about the awesomeness of Obama, all things she did in 2008. It’s almost as if she’s embarrassed by being an “Obama Girl” last time around. I can’t say for sure how she’ll vote. But the enthusiasm is definitely not there. I’m guessing she won’t vote at all.
My mother in law. Huge Obama supporter last time around. She got pissed with me when I pointed out to her his record on guns in the IL state legislature. This time, Romney all the way with her.
Another friend of mine who’s parents have been involved in Democrat politics all his life. His mom was an elected state rep for several years as well, as a Democrat. His dad was (before retiring) a union honcho. In 2008 drunk on Obama Kool Aid. In 2012 - I almost fell off my chair when I heard this - he said looking back on it Bush wasn’t that bad compared to the situation we have now with Obama.
And this is why Obama will lose, and badly. Nobody who voted for McCain in 2008 will vote for Obama in 2012. Millions who voted for Obama in 2008 will either not vote or vote for Romney.
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Comment by Carl Morris
2012-08-22 08:35:43
But how many true Romney enthusiasts do you hear from? I finally saw my *first* Romney bumper sticker recently on a coworker’s car. I mentioned to him that his was the first one I’d seen and he was a bit sheepish and mumbled something about his daughter putting it on there but he didn’t think it was such a good idea because it was a Mercedes and that just reinforced the stereotypes about Romney.
I have seen a few conservative Catholic friends on Facebook really get fully on board with Romney recently due to his VP pick, but that’s the only real enthusiasm I’ve seen. Plenty of bashing of both sides, though.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 09:53:19
This orthodox Catholic isn’t thrilled with Ryan, who talks like a Fundy and not a Catholic.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 10:05:19
Colorado are you an orthodox Catholic or just a Catholic that is just orthodox? Just curious, I am a Catholic myself but more cafeteria than orthodox.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2012-08-22 10:13:20
If you do not understand the question:
orthodoxcatholicchurch.org
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 10:14:42
That said, while people aren’t energized by Romney, Obama’s lackluster performance could definitely put Mitt in the White House, unless of course the Romney campaign commits another gaffe.
Oh well, I guess I’ll just throw away my vote on Ron Paul.
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-22 10:25:02
My mother, the most liberal person I know, will not vote for Obama this term. Will she vote for Romney? Probably not. She’ll likely sit it out.
Comment by goon squad
2012-08-22 10:46:07
saw my *first* Romney bumper sticker
Dude, you’re in Boulder LOL. See them all over down here around JeffCo and Arapahoe County…
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 11:19:30
She could probably vote for Nader or whoever the Green Party candidate is.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 11:26:59
Colorado are you an orthodox Catholic or just a Catholic that is just orthodox? Just curious, I am a Catholic myself but more cafeteria than orthodox.
orthodox with a lower case “o”. As in non-cafeteria. I figure, if you’re gonna be cafeteria, then you might as well switch to the Episcopal church.
I used the term “orthodox” as opposed to “conservative” as most “conservative” Catholics actually hold some Protestant Fundy beliefs, which makes them heterodox.
orthodoxcatholicchurch.org
Those guys sound more “Orthodox” (with an uppercase “O”) than Catholic. Actually, they come across as a group that broke away from the Orthodox church.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 11:43:58
Nobody who voted for McCain in 2008 will vote for Obama in 2012. Millions who voted for Obama in 2008 will either not vote or vote for Romney.
And millions who voted for McCain either won’t vote or will vote 3rd party.
And as others have said, the polling will need to be done on a state level to be meaningful.
At this point, I think it could go either way. As for the “futures” predictions … we’ll see how that turns out.
Comment by Neuromance
2012-08-22 11:48:04
And this is why Obama will lose, and badly. Nobody who voted for McCain in 2008 will vote for Obama in 2012. Millions who voted for Obama in 2008 will either not vote or vote for Romney.
Nothing sours young voters like tough economic times. Few jobs and high debt.
On the other hand, the current system - political and media - present only two choices. So to many, it’s going to be a question of which is the least bad: Rolls Royce or Stale Hope and Change.
“What has been swinging him to the right are some of the very obvious atrocities Obama has brought about, such as giving himself the power of life or death over US citzens without due process of the law. And the recent administrative “amnesty” to the children of illegal immigrants.”
And suspending habeas corpus so we can destroy Israel’s enemies?
In the most shocking survey this election cycle, a poll released today finds Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama by 14 percentage points among likely Florida voters.
Foster McCollum White & Associates, Baydoun Consulting and Douglas Fulmer & Associates, of Dearborn, Mich., questioned 1,503 likely Florida voters Friday and found Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, leading Obama 54%-40%. The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.53%.
These polls are meaningless. Polls in late October might give some clue, but this is too early for anything.
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Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-22 07:57:15
“These polls are meaningless. Polls in late October might give some clue, but this is too early for anything.”
Of course. When Romney is winning polls are meaningless. When Obama is winning polls are definitive. I forgot.
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-22 08:03:35
Agree. We haven’t even had debates yet…. Though I bet we can script them.
Romney: Take back the government from the socialists (meaning environmental and labor protections, catch up with China in the race to the bottom), repeal Obamacare, less government, meaningful entitlement reform while protecting today’s seniors(code for screwing those under 55), lower the rate and broaden the base (code for screwing the middle class)…
Obama: Lift up the middle-class (without any specific policies to do so), protect women and minority rights, rich pay fair share (meaning 18% effective rate for the top earners instead of 17%)…
Blah, blah, blah. More rearranging deck chair….
Meanwhile, $600B a year flows out of circulation via international trade imbalances, and another $700B flows into the bank accounts of those that already have more money than they spend, and we pretend that the economy is working, by adding $1.3T a year new debt/money.
Here is what I want to know. Which party is going to make fundamental fixes to the economy so that we’re not dependent on 10% of GDP new debt every year?
Are Reps or Dems going to end free trade?
Are Reps or Dems going to return to a 1950s style tax code?
Are Reps or Dems going to attack and reverse the trade imbalances that have forced us to live on unsustainable debt growth?????
This sucka is going down, and I really could not care less which do-nothing party is in charge when we go under.
Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-22 08:13:56
“Are Reps or Dems going to end free trade? ”
Why in the world would any of them do something that idiotic?
Will there be teleprompters at the debates? Or at least ear pieces for the candidates?
This is the main determining factor in who I will vote for.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 10:00:59
End free trade? Is that what you are saying?
“Free trade”? What free trade?
We buy everything the Chinese make, lowering or even removing tariffs. But if you want to sell them Buicks (which they seem to like), well pilgrim, you have to make them in China. Boeing’s been forced into a joint venture in China (otherwise they’ll buy Airbus jets). Yeah … free markets.
There is no free trade. We are the only chumps who provide full access to our markets. Everyone else jealously protects their markets and job bases.
Comment by polly
2012-08-22 10:29:06
“and broaden the base (code for screwing the middle class)…”
If you read the link I posted above, Romney has said that he doesn’t want to touch most of the MID, tax exemption for employer provided health insurance, and charitable deductions. I’m guessing he isn’t going to get rid of the exclusion/deduction for 401k and IRA savings. Yes, these programs mostly help the upper middle class and wealthy, but they impact the middle class too. We know he wants to lower overall rates and certainly isn’t going to up the rates on dividends and cap gains. Where is there a tax impact on the middle class? The new money (he says his tax plan will be revenue neutral) will have to come from the lower middle class and the poor. There isn’t any body else.
Comment by In Colorado
2012-08-22 11:45:36
Romney has said that …
He says lots of things … then shakes the Etch-A-Sketch and later denies ever having said such things.
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 11:52:22
“…end free trade? Why in the world would any of them do something that idiotic?” Richard “Dick” U. Smithers, Walton family spokesman, 2012
Six Waltons Have More Wealth Than the Bottom 30 % of Americans (100 million Americans) Forbes 12/14/11
Different people will take this different ways, but Jeffrey Goldberg tells us that six members of the Walton family (the original owners of WalMart) have more wealth than the bottom 30 % of Americans.
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-08-22 13:48:03
Well they earned it didn’t they? After all, they DID choose the right parents.
The only “poll” that matters is the FiveThirtyEight forecast which has the Nov. 6 numbers at 295.1 electoral votes (Obama) to 242.9 electoral votes (Romney).
Interesting that porn goddess Jenna Jameson publicly supports Romney. But she is not doing so for his social conservative issues, of course. Naively she thinks he is a fiscal conservative and she is a smart businesseoman not ashamed to be wealthy. She’d be far better off supporting Ron Paul.
And, when faced with massive trade deficits in AZ, what was Jan’s solution? Right, $1 billion in tax increases, because despite how often the Republicans lie to the contrary, we’re not on the downside of the laffer curve, and in fact, raising taxes increases revenues and lowering taxes reduces revenue.
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Comment by Mr. Smithers
2012-08-22 08:17:18
Trade deficit in AZ? I didn’t realize states had trade deficits. Tell me more.
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-22 08:36:03
Meant budget deficits…. but, yes, we also have trade deficits. Just like the country as a whole, we import more than we export and are being kept alive via USA Government deficit spending (in the form of Luke Air Force Base).
Darrel is lying again. Even his Democrat friends admit Arizona’s budget is balanced.
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2012-08-22 20:47:13
And now by law, Arizona must have a balanced budget. California will not ever have that law until it gets bailed out by the taxpayers at the federal level. Grasshoppers are fiddling.
“WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who is out-fundraising President Barack Obama by impressive margins, is attracting thousands of donors this summer
…
Donors from tony neighborhoods of Manhattan to even the famously liberal Castro neighborhood in San Francisco helped Romney and the GOP outraise Obama
…
Romney collected at least $630,000 by mid-summer from New York City, the home to major Romney fundraiser and New York Jets owner Woody Johnson. More than $100,000 of that came from investment bankers,
…
More than 2,000 miles away on the West Coast, Romney collected at least $350,000 since June in the San Francisco Bay Area alone, with average contributions of $400 apiece.
…
In Denver, the home of the 2008 Democratic National Convention, Romney supporters this summer contributed more than $400,000 - enough to pay rent, utilities and staff for a campaign field office. And in Philadelphia, where Obama handily beat Sen. John McCain four years ago, Romney took in more than $250,000 since early June.”
As Meg Whitman learned the hard way in the last California governor’s election, it’s votes that win elections, not money. Apparently, all the 1% money in the world isn’t necessarily enough to buy an election.
Existing home sales data was apparently leaked early — the National Association of Realtors tends to release the data at 10 a.m., but Bloomberg had it at 9:30. The NAR said that existing home sales rose 2.3% to 4.47 million units, which was below the expectations for 4.5 million from analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal.
…
Too weak to get Obama re-elected but too strong to allow housing prices to drop. That seems to be true of all the recent data. NBC/ WSJ poll being played up on the Internet shows Obama with a four point lead. Trouble is that is among registered voters not likely voters and does not allocate the undecided vote. Factor that in we are looking at a 53-47 Romney vote. I could see it being as tight as 51-49, if Obama can find enough money to run enough negative ads but that is looking increasingly unlikely.
The election truly starts in about a month when early voting begins not much time to turn this one around.
His point is that he does not believe that the democrats have a 6% advantage in membership over the Republicans and after the last four years and the totals in 2010, I find that hard to believe too.
2) Unleash the US economy by putting a leash on the EPA, allowing oil companies to start drilling, extracting and refining oil. If you look around the US, the areas where the economy is doing best are where the petroleum industry is working the most. I am in Hobbs, NM today and a large percentage of the hotels are full because of all the contractors working in the petroleum industry. Check out North Dakota and Pennsylvania areas as well.
3) Get the government off the backs of small business. Just try starting any kind of business these days. The regulations are massive and prohibitive.
4) Renew the Bush Tax Cuts. If these tax cuts are allowed to vanish, the extra tax burden will put the US into a recession. See CIBT’s post on the CBO estimates.
That should be a good start. Romney is going to get the US back on the right track by reducing the effects of an over-burdensome government. Hopefully he will find a way to cut back on the budgets of all governmental agencies.
Congressional Republicans must not feel very confident about winning the presidency and keeping control of the House. If they did, they would join with Democrats to revise the filibuster rules.
Comment by Lip
2012-08-22 15:16:39
Polly, I have heard that they only need 51 to repeal Obamacare. If we need 60 it’ll never happen and I know that there’s a chance that it can be repealed.
Avocado, Romney is not Bush. You might be right about Romney in that he might not be successful, because after all we would have to rely on the Republicans to actually do something (other than roll over or maybe bend over). But you are wrong about calling me a sheeple. If I vote for Romney at least I am voting for change. What do you propose? Follow Obama’s plan??? Oh, haven’t you gotten the message, HE HAS NO PLAN!
howiewowie, true that there are some states that don’t have much petrol to farm, but one in particular, CA, could unleash its economy, pay for it’s debt and put thousands of people back to work. Regulations under the Obama Administration have exploded. The bureacracy for Obamacare is still trying to figure out how they’re going to implement the act and our businesses have no idea what’s going to happen. How does a business plan for the future when they don’t know what the future holds? There is a lot of uncertainty out there. Bush tax cuts, if they go away the taxes go up and take the money away from the people and the businesses that would use that money to buy things, invest or hire employees.
1. Agree. Although he may not be able to do much without a supermajority in the Senate.
2. So oil drilling alone is supposed to unleash the economy? Where does that leave every state that isn’t Texas or the Dakotas. And you know the states have some control over this. You won’t ever see oil rigs anywhere near Florida waters.
3. Are the regulations all that different than from the Bush years? Don’t think so.
4. The Bush tax cuts have been in effect for nearly 10 years now…and we still had the Great Recession. No change there.
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Comment by Bad Andy
2012-08-22 14:34:05
Bush tax cuts were the most irresponsible type. They didn’t do anything to address the tax code to balance the revenue decline and there was nothing in place to take care of them. Chickens of the Bush administration are coming home to roost, but there is NOTHING Obama and the do nothing congress has done to help. If anything, they’ve made things worse.
Deficits UNDER $1 trillion per year
Getting the government out of the housing market or at least letting the market set the price
Getting rid of ALL the UNCONFIRMED “Czars”
A few good supreme court picks
I know Obama sucks. Tell me what Romney is going to do that will be better.
Deficits under $1T a year? So how are we going to replace the $1.3T a year that leaks out of circulation via international trade imbalances and the widening wealth disparity?
Government out of housing? So, Romney is going to shut down FHA and the GSE’s? Is that in his platform and his official speeches? Or are we just supposed to take it on faith that he will do that?
If you call Republican picks “good”… Well, we’re very far apart on this.
You still aren’t telling me what Romney is going to do. HOW is he going to get deficits under $1T a year? What is he going to cut (andd don’t say Obamacare because it has offsetting receipts so has basically no effect on deficits)? Or is he going to increase taxes?
HOW is he going to get government out of housing and let prices find their value? What is that? Another 30% drop nationally? What effect would that have on defaults, foreclosures, bank insolvancies? Another bailout, or resolution authority? Or just let the entire global banking system collapse?
What unconfirmed czars are we talking about, and what effect would that have?
What do you consider a “good” supreme court pick? One that will say that spending unlimited amounts of money is free speech, and corporations are people too, so can spend ANY amount of money bribing politicians and buying elections? Revoke Roe v. Wade? Church back in school and government?
Not BS generalities…. Seriously, what specifically is Romney going to do?
Ryan’s plan is not deficit reduction. It simply reduces taxes (which mostly favor the upper income brackets) and reduces spending on social safety net programs. It is shifting moneyfrom the lower income brackets to the upper income brackets.
“Getting the government out of the housing market or at least letting the market set the price
Romney is going to do this? The latest I have heard is that he will keep the MID (see upthread). Will he get rid of Fanny and Freddy?
“Getting rid of ALL the UNCONFIRMED “Czars”
I have never understood the whole czars thing. Has Romney said he will get rid of them? Will we really be less fascist under Romney? The Patriot Act and No Child Left Behind were both passed under Republican administrations. Will Romney push to repeal them?
“A few good supreme court picks”
Like Scalia and Thomas? As Darrell said, Republican appointed justices are the ones who gave us Citizens United.
“and reduces spending on social safety net programs.”
Ryan’s plan doesn’t even do that for another 30 years. All those over 55 are protected, and then cuts phase in slowly over time, so real reduction of the “entitlements” as % of GDP do not start to decline until 2041 and won’t be back to todays level until 2055. Most of the reduction in his plan occurs as the Boomers finally die off in huge numbers between 2035 and 2055.
Ryan’s projections of entitlements returning to today’s level of GDP are based on GDP increasing at 4-5% for the 40 years between no and final Boomer die off. If we fail to hit the 4-5% GDP over the 40 years, then it will be MORE than 40 years before SS and MC are a smaller part of GDP than they are today, EVEN with his cuts.
How can this be? Even after Boomer die off entitlements will be a larger % of GDP then they are today?
Yeah… Today’s retires were born during the GD and WWII at a rate of 2.5 million a year. Today’s workers were born at an average rate of 4 million a year, and were augmented by 1 million legal immigrants and half a million illegal immigrants.
Ratio per year = 2.5/5.5 = 0.45.
So, you take the 20 years of retirement / 45 years of work = 0.44. Multiply this by the 0.45 and you get 0.2. That is, 5 working age for each retired.
According to the 2010 census, 40 million are over 65 and 196 million between 18 and 65, so pretty close to the .2.
When I go to retire, it won’t just be the 3.5 million average born in my GenX, it will be us 3.5 million plus 1 million a year legal immigrants and half a million illegals = 5. Supporting us will be GenY, born at 4 million a year, plus legal and illegal immigrants = 5.5.
The ratio will be 5/5.5 = 0.9 instead of the 0.45 we have now.
Even if we move retirement age 5 years so that it is 15/50(0.3) instead of 20/45 (0.44) we still do not overcome that difference between 0.45 pop ratio and the 0.9 pop ratio.
0.9*0.3 = .27
So. instead of 5 to 1 workers to retirees, we’re looking at more like 4 to 1. That is why, even if we retire 5 years later, and even if they cut our benefits another 20%, we still are not back to today’s level of GDP.
It is the math people.
Social Security has been in the sweet spot of Boomers augmented by massive numbers of immigrants working and a relatively tiny generation, augmented by few immigrants, retired. Very favorable worker to retiree ratio above 5 to 1.
Now, with the first of the boomers turning 65, we’re going to see that ratio collapse from 5 to 1, to only 3 to 1, and then only be back to 4 to 1, IF we move retirement age another 5 years even 40 years from now when almost all the Boomers are dead.
Population didn’t keep increasing 30% per generation as would have been needed to maintain the 5 to 1 ratio.
And, that is why Ryan’s plan needs GDP growth to be 2-3X inflation, and WHY it is not even a plan to reduce spending on social safety net programs.
At best you can say that Ryan’s plan is a plan to slow the rate of increase, 40 years from now, after the Boomers are dead.
Yeah, that justifies big tax increases for the rich now.
Aug. 22, 2012, 11:22 a.m. EDT CBO issues fresh ‘fiscal cliff’ warning Economy will contract in 2013, agency says in budget update
By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy will contract instead of expanding in 2013 if scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts go into effect in January, the Congressional Budget Office warned on Wednesday.
In a fresh warning about the so-called “fiscal cliff,” the nonpartisan CBO reiterated that the U.S. economy will go into a recession next year if the Bush-era tax cuts expire and automatic spending cuts take effect. Read the CBO report.
In its latest report, the CBO predicts that the U.S. economy will grow at a 2.1% clip in 2012, but fall by 0.5% between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the fourth quarter of 2013 under the fiscal cliff scenario.
Previously, the CBO said growth would be 0.5% in 2013 under the fiscal cliff. In its new report it said the “underlying strength” of the economy is weaker.
…
This is another reason not to expect Romney/Ryan to cut the deficit. Any deficit cutting won’t happen in a Romney/Ryan administration, but will be pushed out at least 8 years. Kick the can is good politics.
Worked for obama for 4 years. But will Romney/Ryan just blame obama for the next 4 years…?
:-/
This is another reason not to expect Romney/Ryan to cut the deficit. Any deficit cutting won’t happen in a Romney/Ryan administration, but will be pushed out at least 8 years. Kick the can is good politics.
This article doesn’t mention the current U.S. birth rate, which is below the level reached at the trough of the Great Depression, lower than the birthrate in France, and under the replacement rate.
One way to think about the Great Recession is like a great pause button.
In normal times, millions of people get married in their mid-to-late 20s. They spend lots of money on a wedding. They buy a car, often with a loan. They buy a house, always with a loan. They buy new furniture and appliances. With their time and money coupled, expenses that were once extraneous now feel reasonable. Maybe he was individually satisfied with sports bars and she with Netflix, but as a couple, it makes more sense to watch live sports and TV shows on their new couch, and so they buy cable. They have a kid, or more than a few. You know how the story goes.
DELAY, DELAY, DELAY
Before the Great Recession, young people were already saving many of these activities for later in their lives. The share of young adults (18-29) who were married fell from 59% to 20% between 1960 and 2010. These couples bought houses later, too. “A decline in the incidence of marriage mechanically lowers home ownership,” Martin Gervais and Jonas D.M. Fisher wrote in their paper “Why Has Home Ownership Fallen Among the Young?”
In the last few years, young people have even more reason to delay the costly trappings of adulthood. Pinned between rising student debt behind them and scant job opportunities before them, 34% moved back home for a period of time. With access to their parents’ garage, they needed (and could afford) fewer cars of their own. Young people now account for a smaller share of total auto purchases than they did just a few years ago.
It all leads to babies. Or, more specifically, not babies. In February this year, a Pew survey found that more than one-in-five young adults between 18 and 34 have delayed having a kid because of the economy — roughly the same proportion that postponed marriage. “Americans have had fewer babies each year since 2008, Bloomberg News reported yesterday. “Births [fell] to a 12-year low in 2011,” leading to the smallest population gain since World War II.
For a couple, pushing the pause button on weddings, houses, cars, and children is utterly sensible. (Look at the economy, after all.) But for the economy, itself, it’s disastrous. Household formation multiplies consumer spending. Cars and houses determine recoveries: These two industries accounted for 30% of the 1980s recovery and barely 10% of this one.
Babies aren’t often lumped into the same category as autos and homes, but as a driver of spending, they’re nearly as important. The annual cost of having a child in the northeast with a household income between $70,000 and $100,000 is about $17,000 a year, according to the U.S. government. That makes the typical child and the median monthly mortgage payments basically the same.
COME BACK, KIDS
If history serves as precedent, there’s reason to hope the babies will return with the economy. Via Bloomberg:
The number of children per family fell to 2.3 on average in 1933 from 3.5 in 1900, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It rebounded to as many as 3.7 in the 1950s, then began to decline again with the advent of modern contraceptives, stabilizing at about two children in 1972, government data show.
I will tell you having a second child put us on the brink, and my promotion is the only thing holding us in place. My son started VPK this year, which is partially funded, so things are better.
I sometimes wonder if the anti-abortion, anti-birth control push by the extreme right is a demographic war. If it was, I would think they would be better served to encourage it for everyone except those who share their views.
I had a long conversation with an anti-abortionist last fall. He accused those who support abortion of being racist and wanting to kill poor minority children. It was the first time I had heard that meme. He and his wife had to adopt because they were infertile. I think that is when his views changed from supporting abortion (to take it out of back alleys) to opposing it (so more children would be available for adoption?). He is over 65, and remembers the days before abortion was legal.
Personally, I think Roe v. Wade got it right. It is a good balance between the rights of the mother and the rights of the fetus, similar to the balance maintained by self defense laws between the rights of the attacker and defender. Pregnancy is not a trivial burden on the body. For some it is life threatening. For some it requires medical support to carry to term, including the potential for extended periods in the hospital. The government should not be making these medical decisions.
I think a better balance would be heartbeat of the fetus. This removes the ever moving, and difficult to judge “viability” test.
So, a woman has about 4 weeks from conception, 2 weeks from being “late” to figure out she is pregnant and get an abortion.
This keeps all abortive birth control (everything from the pill to IUD) completely legal, as well as morning after pills and such. If a woman can’t figure out she’s late and get the abortion within a couple weeks, well then, I guess she’ll have to resort to a back alley abortionist.
We know that 88% of births occur within the first 12 weeks (the official reporting cutoff) and it is estimated that more than half (maybe as high as 60%) occur within the first 8 weeks. So, with a looming deadline, I suspect that a significant portion of those 88% of abortions would still occur.
Make an exception for the “health of the mother” and “significant defect or malformation in the fetus or risk there of”, and I bet we’d still get a significant portion of the 12% of abortions that occur beyond the first trimester.
So, maybe we’d reduce the number of abortions by… I don’t know? 20%?
And the best part of the compromise is that we finally get to stop hearing the frequently incorrect “Abortion stops a beating heart” slogan. With over half of abortions occurring in the first 8 weeks, and the heartbeat not starting until 6.5-7 weeks, it is pretty safe to say that a significant portion of the abortions that occur today do not, in fact, stop a beating heart.
Of course, this compromise would make no one happy, which pretty much tells me that it is close to the best option.
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Comment by Happy2bHeard
2012-08-22 15:19:02
“So, a woman has about 4 weeks from conception, 2 weeks from being “late” to figure out she is pregnant and get an abortion. “
Some women conceive while on the pill. They never miss a period.
Some women are very irregular and may not be aware that they are pregnant until after 8 weeks. This is especially true of early puberty and pre-menopause, both times where the mother is more at risk and where the risk of fetal anomalies is higher.
I knew a woman in college who had never had a period. I think she was told she was not fertile. That may or may not have been true.
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2012-08-22 15:25:06
“Make an exception for the “health of the mother” and “significant defect or malformation in the fetus or risk there of”, and I bet we’d still get a significant portion of the 12% of abortions that occur beyond the first trimester.”
Based on my conversation with an anti-abortionist, this is a loophole you can drive a truck through. Who is to say when the health of the mother is at risk? Does this include mental health?
Who determines significant risk of defect or malformation? Does this let alcoholics off the hook?
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2012-08-22 15:41:11
“So, with a looming deadline, I suspect that a significant portion of those 88% of abortions would still occur.”
Might it increase the number of abortions? If there is less time to decide, would it tip the balance in favor of maintaining the status quo (for the mother - no baby)?
OTOH, if money is an issue, it would allow less time to raise the money for an abortion.
Do anti-abortionists favor free pre-natal care for all fetuses? Would that include free food and pre-natal vitamins for their mothers? The one I talked with last year did not favor supporting other people’s children.
(I haven’t seen my other comments come through. It occurs to me I may be talking to myself. )
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-22 15:54:17
“Some women conceive while on the pill. They never miss a period.”
Then they need to do the 3-week real pill, 1 week of sugar pill to keep track of the days pills where you do have a period every month.
And, what percentage of pregnancies is this anyway?
“Some women are very irregular and may not be aware that they are pregnant until after 8 weeks. This is especially true of early puberty and pre-menopause, both times where the mother is more at risk and where the risk of fetal anomalies is higher.”
Allowing us to drive that truck through the loophole of “risk to the health of the mother or development of the fetus”.
Again, what % of pregnancies is this? Again, since more than half of abortions occur within 8 weeks, and 88% occur within 12 weeks (when these “very irregular woman” would not have any outward signs of pregnancy) I have to assume we’re talking a fairly low %.
On one extreme, we have abortion on demand up to the point of viability. On the other extreme, we have people that would like to ban all abortions and some even want to ban abortive birth control like the pill, IUD, and morning after pill.
A compromise would be somewhere between these extremes. Not everyone in every circumstance that wants an abortion gets one. Not every pregnancy is carried to term.
The added advantage of the “beating heart” is that is also the criteria for death…. AND it eliminates the frequently incorrect slogan “an abortion stops a beating heart”.
It is fixed, testable, verifiable, AND, most importantly, makes no one happy. The only possible compromise is one that makes no one happy.
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-08-22 16:04:50
“Might it increase the number of abortions?”
Possible. Not a problem if the goal is a compromise between the current abortion on demand for all, and the other extreme of no abortions at all.
“if money is an issue, it would allow less time to raise the money for an abortion.”
An absolute must for this compromise is federal funding for abortions where the heartbeat has not yet started ….. in the ideal world, this would be standard coverage under a federal single-payer universal coverage plan.
“Do anti-abortionists favor free pre-natal care for all fetuses?”
Again, any compromise on abortion would have to include we continue things like food stamps and WIC for pregnant mothers, as well as AFDC for women that give birth to these otherwise unwanted babies.
If you want the women to be forced to have the babies, than we’re all going to pay for the raising of those babies. The flip side should be home visits and inspections to ensure the proper care is given to all these kids we’re paying for. The last thing we need or want is more kids growing uncared for and malnourished.
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2012-08-22 16:29:24
“Not a problem if the goal is a compromise between the current abortion on demand for all”
But we don’t have abortion on demand for all - only in the first trimester. You are simply advocating changing the timeframe of abortion on demand.
And who is it that wants compromise? Certainly not the rabidly anti-abortion folks who say no way, no how, at no time, under no circumstances. They will not stop until it is legally murder in all cases. Roe v. Wade is compromise - and a reasonable one.
The ultimate solution would be a technological one that takes an unwanted fetus and develops it to term either by implantation in another uterus or in an artificial uterus. Then a woman can give an embryo up for adoption at any point in a pregnancy and no woman’s health is at risk. How many orphanages will we need?
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2012-08-22 17:01:04
“Then they need to do the 3-week real pill, 1 week of sugar pill to keep track of the days pills where you do have a period every month.”
So they have a period in spite of being pregnant. It is usually smaller in volume, but not totally absent.
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2012-08-22 18:04:10
““significant defect or malformation in the fetus or risk there of””
There is significant risk of fetal alcohol syndrome with reasonable amounts of alcohol at critical points in a pregnancy. You don’t have to get plastered, be a binge drinker, or an alcoholic. A couple of drinks will do.
From the Mayo Clinic website: “There is no amount of alcohol that’s known to be safe to consume during pregnancy. If you drink during pregnancy, you place your baby at risk of fetal alcohol syndrome. ”
So all a woman would have to do to fit into this exception would be to have a drink.
“It permits the mother to have the fetus killed. How is that good balance?”
I already answered this. “Pregnancy is not a trivial burden on the body. For some it is life threatening. For some it requires medical support to carry to term, including the potential for extended periods in the hospital.”
Roe v. Wade say abortions allowed before viability. If we get to the point technologically where a 4 week old embryo can be raised in an incubator, then it will be time to revisit.
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Comment by Happy2bHeard
2012-08-22 17:09:22
I also think there is a legal argument to be made for self defense in cases where the health of the mother is in jeopardy.
I do not think we should be too quick to dismiss the effects of reduced illegal immigration on the birth rate.
We know the number of births to illegals spiked from 2003-2008 as the housing bubble brought a massive wave of illegals into this country to work in the construction field.
“The number of U.S.-citizen children born to illegal immigrants has dramatically increased over the past five years from 2.7 million in 2003 to 4 million in 2008, according to a study released Tuesday.”
That is 6 years to gain 1.3 million children of illegals, or just over 200K a year right? Wrong. There were 100K a year 18 years ago, so the 200K a year increase in the number of children of illegals is the delta between the 300K being born over those years and the 100K becoming adults.
300K out of 4.2 million births is 7% of all births in 2008.
…..
I went off and did some research to see if I could figure out how many illegals have left, and the net effect of that on the number of births. All data seems to indicate that net illegal immigration has gone from around 750K a year in the housing boom, to a net 0 now. For the first time since the mid-1970s (bottom of the Baby Bust, when we turned a blind eye to illegal immigration as a tool to fight the bust) as many illegals left as came.
So, we’re not seeing a massive decline in the number of illegals in the country.
Number of births to illegals also seems to have increased from something that rounds to 7% of births (300K-ish/4200K) to 8% of births (300K-ish/4000K), or so says CDC. This is consistent with zero net immigration and no significant decline in the birth rate for illegals.
I will now dismiss my knee jerk reaction that the illegals leaving could account for a significant portion in the drop in births…. It is the non-illegals that are not having as many children.
We now return to the regularly scheduled housing and economic doom and gloom.
He said,”housing and economic doom and gloom”. I interpret this as economic gloom and doom plus housing and not as housing gloom and doom and economic gloom and doom.
“Simply put, the quality of Israeli sperm is falling at an alarming rate, and no one’s sure exactly why.
Fertility is a major issue in Israel, where memories of the Holocaust genocide are fresh, and having children is an entrenched part of Judaism. There’s also a political aspect, because birthrates among Arabs in Israel have at times been as much as double those of Jews, triggering a population race that some believe could one day affect who controls the land.
So the drop in the quality of sperm is raising some red flags, even though the cause remains a mystery. Speculative theories range from the mundane (carrying cellphones in front pockets) to the far-fetched (depleted uranium from exploded munitions). Some Israeli scientists are looking seriously at naturally occurring hormones, particularly estrogen, in Israel’s water and milk and suggest that it’s a mark of the country’s aggressive dairy farming methods.”
Optimistic (bovine-brained) view: The Fed will invoke QE3 at their September meeting, making stocks, bonds and gold go up while the dollar drops. MOO-OO-OO…
Pessimistic (ursine-brained) view: The Fed must see something pretty dire on the economic horizon to undertake the political risk of invoking QE3 during election season, particularly when the Republican candidates have come out against it. GRR-RR-RR…
Dire on the horizon? We cannot continue to grow at 1.5-2% rate it means the national debt is growing far faster than the GDP. It also means many more municipal bankruptcies, see the Warren Buffett thread of yesterday.
Real (publicly held) is up from $5T 5 years ago, to $11.2T today. (Treasury direct using search date of Aug 1 2007 and Aug 1 2012.
That is an average deficit of $1.24T per year. Even using today’s real national debt of $11.2 as the denominator, that means that if we continue to increase the debt at the rate of the last 5 years, we’re increasing debt at 11% per year.
I do not think we can grow the economy at 11% per year, so hopes of growing our way out of our current debt are doomed.
Equally, all that $1.3T a year we are pumping into the economy is not overheating the economy, therefore, it must be draining out somewhere. If we just stop pumping in the debt without first addressing where the money goes, we’re doomed.
The problem, as I see it, is that the money is leaving the economy as fast as we are pumping it in. We must first address the drains of money from the economy (trade imbalances). Then we can stop pumping money into the economy. Then we can begin to sop up the excess liquidity (money) by ensuring the money reaches the people that have debt so that they can repay the debt and destroy the excess money by destroying the debt that created it.
Of course, the other option is for the money not to get to the people that owe the debt, then the debt will default and the money will just poof out of existence.
Realist view: QE just takes debt off banks books, giving them more room under the reserve requirements. Banks are not up against their reserve requirements, so QE does not remove any bottle necks to lending. This eliminates the multiplier effect that usually comes from easing lending (seed is multiplied by the inverse of the reserve).
If reserve requirements was a bottle neck, and the average reserve was 3%, then $1B in QE would result in $33B new debt/money chasing assets. With reserve not being a bottleneck, then $1B in QE is only $1B in money chasing assets.
So, let’s say we do $300B in QE, and then the government turns around and sells another $300B in treasury bonds…. Net effect on the economy is only the $300B in government spending, that drains from the economy in about 3 months of international trade deficits and widening domestic wealth disparity.
Real effect of QE3? A few more months of extend and pretend.
Give me a billion-dollar institute and thirty years worth of funding, and I’ll hand you a sheaf of peer-reviewed studies that prove the earth’s climate is controlled by a giant blueberry muffin named Steve.
But take your brand of “science and logic” to JPL, and be prepared to be laughed off the stage. By actual climatologists and astrophysicists.
you are saying that the left’s science laughs at the right’s.
They do now. And foreigners laugh at us too. That is the level of damage the far right has done to their image on understanding science.
I don’t really argue or think too much on the climate change thing but seeing the right’s junk science on evolution, the age of the earth, legitimate rape pregnancies and more makes me much more believe the “left’s” science on the issue.
The right’s science on climate change is much more influenced by money and politics too.
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Comment by Lip
2012-08-22 16:09:01
The right’s science on climate change is much more influenced by money and politics too???
Dear Rio, to say that the right is much more influenced by money and politics is just not true. Get real.
_______________________________________
Professor Ian Plimer condemned the climate change lobby as “climate comrades” keeping the “gravy train” going.
In a controversial talk just days before the start of a climate summit attended by world leaders in Copenhagen, Prof Plimer said Governments were treating the public like “fools” and using climate change to increase taxes.
Anyway if you Google this you can come up with any conclusion and to be honest I’m not sure which of the conclusions is correct. Is the climate getting warmer? Maybe. Is man causing it? Maybe somewhat.
I think about the effects of China and India going into an industrial period of growth and the fact that their populations are driving around more autos. But there is also the fact that volcanos are spewings tons of pollutants into the air every day.
So why should be strain to reduce our emissions, which are already pretty clean, so that China, India and the volcanos can wipe out any improvements that we might realize. It costs a ton of money to follow the mandates of the EPA and if we’re going to spend the money, lets make sure we do it right.
Just today there was a ruling that went against the EPA whose new regulations were going to force coal fired plants to shut down. Coal is dirtier than other forms of electrical generation, but our coal plants are a lot cleaner than those in other countries.
Just so you know, conservatives are not against clean air and clean water, we just want to make sure we’re doing something that is cost effective. Why spend billions to improve something that will not affect the total atmospheric content of those pollutants?
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-08-22 17:33:13
Rio, to say that the right is much more influenced by money and politics is just not true…..we just want to make sure we’re doing something that is cost effective.
For big business I’m sure.
I never said I was for “the taxes” on this issue and I am not looking at it in that light.
I’m looking at the science first and then who pays for it.
Charles, you may give good insulation but you clearly haven’t the slightest clue what actual science entails. There is no “left’s” science or “right’s” science, there is only the science.
take your brand of “science and logic” to JPL, and be prepared to be laughed off the stage. By actual climatologists and astrophysicists.
On climate change, the right would tend to distrust the opinions of JPL climatologists and astrophysicists.
Because to be a JPL climatologist or astrophysicist, you have to go to a snooty college where they fill your head with a bunch of intellectual, left-wing drivel like math.
“Because to be a JPL climatologist or astrophysicist, you have to go to a snooty college where they fill your head with a bunch of intellectual, left-wing drivel like math.”
…and evolution. Heck, you probably have to agree that the earth is more than 10,000 years old even.
Mugs: Anthropogenic thermonuclear explosions are cybernetic, too, but they’re hardly conducive to homeostasis. Let’s wait until we’ve proof life exists(ed) on Mars and then revisit the metaphor as theory?
Yea, that is what we do have. After a billion dollars of government funded research, we do not have anyone that can explain why for 15 years we have been on a downward sloping mesa of temperatures. James Lovelock has admitted that he was wrong about the extent of man made warming and many other scientists have joined him. Even the climategate e-mails admit it and their writers tried to silence anyone that pointed it out. That is a disgrace to science. The experts you support are no different than the housing experts in 2006.
Are you going to tell me that 2012 so far, is warmer globally than the average of 1998 and if not, how could we have added all the Co2 over the last 15 years to the atmosphere without warming the planet if Co2 was the primary driver of the climate?
Gravity has weighed heavily on the Global DOW since the U.S. market closed, suggesting international investors are more afraid about whatever the Fed saw that sent BB to the bullpen for his QE3 warmup, than the prospect for a near-term QE3 invocation to buoy markets.
If only Mr Market makes an Olympian effort, perhaps he can climb to a new all-time high, with a little bit of Fed-provided doping to stimulate the performance, of course.
NEW YORK – When it comes to new highs on Wall Street, none garner the accolades, the bragging rights or the No. 1 billing in history books like a freshly minted all-time high for the stock market.
Like Olympic records, peak market performances — and the numeric price levels that define them — become the benchmark for excellence and the measuring stick by which all other stock market moves are compared.
Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt’s 9.63-second Olympic record in the 100-meter race is now a magical number in track-and-field, just as the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index’s October 2007 all-time high of 1565.15 is revered on Wall Street.
So too is Dow 14,164.53, the blue-chip barometer’s closing peak. A record is a record. Anything less simply doesn’t measure up. Making an intraday high for the year or new bull market high, as the market did briefly in Tuesday trading, just isn’t as sexy.
Indeed, Americans’ fascination with the best is a big reason why the U.S. stock market’s inability again on Wednesday to close at its highest level since the 2008-09 financial crisis — despite coming within a single point twice in the past four sessions — has a bittersweet feel to it. The S&P finished up 0.32 points to 1413.49.
While the S&P 500 is at levels not seen in more than four years and is up 109% since the bull run began in March 2009, its flirtation with a fresh milestone served as a grim reminder that it’s still trading below where it was back in early 2000 and is still almost 10% below its 2007 record high. The Dow is still almost 1,000 points shy of its record.
Investors’ lost decade
After more than a decade in the stock market and investors having nothing to show for it, Wall Street faces a tough sell even on days when there is a good story to tell.
“There is no real significance in the new (intraday) 2012 highs except as a marker of progress,” says John Manley, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management. “After 12 years of nothing good, the bull case needs to prove itself.”
And there’s no better way for stocks to show people they’re still a legitimate vehicle to build wealth than to keep climbing and make history.
That raises the question: Is a new all-time high finally on the horizon?
If so, how long will it take? And what will it take to get there?
Maybe next year, or later
Unfortunately, getting there by year’s end — while not impossible — is a low-probability event, say the dozen or so Wall Street pros interviewed by USA TODAY. They say next year or 2014 is more likely.
“I don’t think it happens this year,” says money manager Gary Kaltbaum of Kaltbaum Capital Management. “We can go higher but I don’t think we go a ton higher.”
…
“After more than a decade in the stock market and investors having nothing to show for it, Wall Street faces a tough sell even on days when there is a good story to tell.”
The lure of easy money will attract new suckers; always does.
Our little dictator Obama is going after Gallup polling, I guess he could not stand to be behind, so his DOJ is finding a reason to sue Gallup, reminds me about what happen to someone who was willing to tell the truth about our credit rating.
Leader McConnell is undoubtedly thinking longer term. The path to repeal is straightforward and, while difficult, achievable:
•Keep up the pressure in 2011 and 2012: ◦maintain and strengthen Republican unity toward full repeal;
◦repeatedly attack the bill legislatively on all fronts, knowing that most votes will pass the House and fail in the Senate;
◦continue legal pressure through the courts; and
◦tee up repeal as a key partisan difference in the 2012 Presidential and Congressional elections;
•In 2012 win the White House, hold the House majority, and pick up a net 3 Republican Senate seats to retake the majority there; and
•In 2013, use reconciliation to repeal ObamaCare, requiring only a simple majority in the Senate.
So Polly, etal, you were right that they would need 60 votes in the Senate unless they can use reconciliation to repeal it. Since I am not a constitutional lawyer, I should have known you were right (kind of).
McConnell is undoubtedly thinking longer term. The path to repeal (Obamacare) is straightforward and, while difficult, achievable:
McConnell is a vengeful and vindictive empty suit.
Let’s think. Repeal Obamacare? Why? It was a federal version of a Republican plan first developed by the Heritage Foundation and then implemented at the state level by a the pretty good Republican governor Mitt Romney. And it is working in Mass.. The plan was then deemed constitutional by the SCOTUS.
So repeal it? Do the Republicans not love America? Americans? They will repeal a Republican born plan from the neediest Americans for what? Politics?
And repeal and replace with what? What? The Republicans are out of control up there.
“McConnell is a vengeful and vindictive empty suit. ”
Rio, IMO he’s a typical politician, just like almost all of the others.
Mass is a state. Having the federal government mandate one size fits all will ruin the best healthcare system in the world. It will raise prices, cause a shortage in doctors and will allow a panel of unelected bureaucrats to judge who should get what healthcare.
Why would anyone want a government bureaucrat to tell their doctor how to treat them? We can fire our insurance companies but not so the Federal Government.
Rio, IMO he’s a typical politician, just like almost all of the others.
McConnell is not a typical AMERICAN politician. No House or Senate (especially Senate) “leader” such as he would make a new president’s failure the top priority of his political party. That was beyond the pale and damn sure un-American.
the federal government mandate one size fits all will ruin the best healthcare system in the world.
There is much wrong there. I’ll start with the easily disproved false premises of “one size fits all” (there will be exchange options) and “best healthcare in the world.” (US healthcare stats rank mediocre at best for a first world country) Canada has better stats at 60% the cost.
shortage in doctors
Then the crony-monopoly AMA better get moving.
Why would anyone want a government bureaucratBlueCross beancounterto tell their doctor how to treat them?
We can fire our insurance companies now because Obamacare will increase competition.
“Bank of America, in their infinate wisdom and preditory lending practices put us in a mortgage that was 86% of our income.”
Bank of America hosts South Florida homeowner event Friday and Saturday
by Kim Miller
Bank of America is hosting a homeowner assistance event Friday and Saturday that will give borrowers a chance to meet face-to-face with lender representatives and discuss foreclosure alternatives.
The free event runs between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. each day at the Hilton Miami Downtown, 1601 Biscayne Blvd. Complimentary parking will be provided.
Bank of America said it is contacting 12,000 customers within 100 miles of Miami to make them aware of the event, which will include non-profit financial counselors available to speak with homeowners.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 21st, 2012 at 11:34 am and is filed under Florida economy, Foreclosures, Housing affordability, Mortgages, Real estate bust. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
3 Responses to “Bank of America hosts South Florida homeowner event Friday and Saturday”
1
LOGIC Says:
August 21st, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Shouldn’t I just be able to CALL Bank of America for assistance?
2
disgruntled bofa customer Says:
August 21st, 2012 at 1:21 pm
I have been communicating with Bank of America since I lost my job in January, 2011, and actually got off the phone with my rep about 20 minutes ago. He once again informed me, just like he always does, that my file is in underwriting and they are reviewing it. Funny how he failed to mention this event.
3
Disgusted with BofA Says:
August 21st, 2012 at 1:51 pm
Bank of America, in their infinate wisdom and preditory lending practices put us in a mortgage that was 86% of our income. After 5 years of selling off everything of value in order to maintain that house, we had nothing left to sell. Last year, we filed chapter 7 bankrupsy and surrendered the house because they refused to help. They did give us a “modification” which actually was a second (15year) mortgage through one of their subsidiaries. Just before we had to fold up, they granted a modification which was just under $100. (the mort. was $1800 per month)
Had they stated in the very begining that we could not afford to buy that house, we could have backed out of the purchase contract. We were locked into a high down payment which fell through when the purchaser of our previous house “changed his mind” and backed out of that sale just before the closing.
Because of Bank of America, we lost everything and are now renting a small home and driving a clunker of a car.
6
New Homeowner Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 4:31 pm
“I am buying a foreclosed home and it was appraised for more than what I am paying!! So I am walking into my home w/ equity already!!”
My bet is “New Homeowner” will be jobless, toeless and applying for SNARP within 14 months.
Palm Beach County home sales and prices up in July
by Kim Miller
Sales of single-family existing homes increased 21 percent last month in Palm Beach County compared to the same time in 2011 while median prices shot up 15 percent on the same annual measure.
The $217,500 median sales price in July was down 15 percent from the previous month, according to a report released this morning by the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches.
Inventory continued to drop countywide, with less than five months of supply compared to 11 months last year. A six-month supply of homes is considered a normal inventory.
“Overall, the housing market in Palm Beach County is improving on all fronts…prices are up, more homes are selling and foreclosures are down,” said Bonnie Lazar, president of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches.
Statewide, sales of single-family homes were up 10 percent in July over from last year. The medial sales price statewide of $148,000 is an 8 percent increase over July 2011.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012 at 9:22 am and is filed under Florida economy, Foreclosures, Housing boom. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
6 Responses to “Palm Beach County home sales and prices up in July”
1
Bret Weir Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 9:56 am
Does the Post make the Realtors Association pay for these advertisements? There’s more fudge in their numbers than a candy shop!
2
Jacqueline Eve Morris Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 10:09 am
My husband and I ( REALTORS) have been selling real estate in Wellington for the past 15 years. We personally contracted 3 homes two weeks ago , secured a foreclosure purchase for our buyer last week and have an offer on one of our highest price per sq ft listings this week. It’s certainly picking up in Wellington, Fl. Appraisals are TOUGH of course with new bank regulations but understandable. I’m hopeful it stays REASONABLE so all may have equal opportunities to own a home and their investment is safe.
3
Fudgie the Whale Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 10:10 am
More smoke and mirrors, just what we need.
4
howie Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Good news till the next batch of foreclosures hits the market.
5
Garcias Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Me and wife have been looking for 6 months, for a home, and it is very obvious, that the sale of homes have gone up. Homes that are move in ready are contracted within a day or two. But, what we are fighting with, are the investors or cash buyers, its sad to see many homes snatched by investors whom never will never live in the properties, except just flip the homes for profiteering..
6
New Homeowner Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 4:31 pm
I am buying a foreclosed home and it was appraised for more than what I am paying!! So I am walking into my home w/ equity already!!
“..explain why for 15 years we have been on a downward sloping mesa of temperatures…”
Because we haven’t. Climate change is a diverse syndrome of oceanographic and atmospheric fluctuations; some warming, some cooling, all interrelated and on an overall upward trend.
Your apparent source, the widely discredited “creation scientist” Roy Spencer’s (et al) work was based on erroneous satellite readings that have been universally disavowed since they were discovered in the late 1990’s. Since then Spencer (who bills himself as “the official climatologist of the Rush Limbaugh Show”) has been furiously back-pedaling and pandering to paid partisan interests. (Spencer’s own later work, btw, corroborates an overall warming trend in the troposphere.)
Here he is fessing up to screwing up the most critical observations of his career.
For the “scientific” record, Spencer is an advisor to and serves on the board of the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation and is a signatory to Cornwall’s “An Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming” which states:
“We believe Earth and its ecosystems — created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence — are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth’s climate system is no exception.”
2) To think that a huge mass of density exploded into a million pieces, then came together, then got zapped by a bolt of lightning, which created the spark of life.
Question: What caused #2 to happen if that’s what you choose?
You see, you have to believe one or the other. To think that your choice is the only choice possible isn’t rational because you don’t have any more proof that I do. If so, what is your proof?
As for me, I choose to believe that God caused all of the stuff in #2.
Is it easier to think:
1) That God created this world or
2) To think that a huge mass of density exploded into a million pieces, then came together, then got zapped by a bolt of lightning, which created the spark of life.
Both.
God created a world of science where a huge mass of density exploded into a million pieces, then came together, then got zapped by a bolt of lightning, which created the spark of life.
No. I don’t want to talk about “religion”. That was my whole point. And no, I DON’T have to “choose one or the other.” Your two stated options demonstrate both a lack of intellectual courage and a lack of imagination– which is precisely what empiricism attempts to address.
“2) To think that a huge mass of density exploded into a million pieces, then came together, then got zapped by a bolt of lightning, which created the spark of life.
Question: What caused #2 to happen if that’s what you choose?”
“As I first reported some weeks back, the Washington State Republican Party’s failure to nominate a candidate for US Senate in 2010 appears to have cost them “major party” status under the letter of RCW 29A.04.086. This failure should in turn have required Mitt Romney to qualify for Washington’s presidential ballot under rules and deadlines applied to “minor parties,” a deadline that has long since passed.
Today the Libertarian Party of Washington State filed suit (PDF) to have Romney’s name removed from the November ballot:
The suit seeks an order declaring that the Washington State Republican Party is “minor party” for purposes of the 2012 general election and directing the Secretary of State to issue ballots for the November election that do not contain the printed name of any Republican Party nominee.”
Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.
Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” Bickers said in a press statement.
…
August 22, 2012 9:59 PM Obama: Akin “somehow missed science class” President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign stop, Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2012, in North Las Vegas, Nev. (AP Photo)
(CBS/AP) — President Obama weighed in on Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin’s controversial comments about “legitimate rape” Wednesday, mocking Akin by saying he “somehow missed science class.”
“The interesting thing here is that this is an individual who sits on the House Committee on Science and Technology but somehow missed science class,” Mr. Obama said at a fundraiser in New York City Wednesday night. “But it’s representative of a desire to go backwards instead of forwards. And fights that we thought were settled twenty, thirty years ago.”
…
Fair disclaimer: I disagree with this article by approximately 100%. The subprime mortgages were already loaned out by the time Obama took office, leaving him with no easy way out. And the notion of “fixing” the economy by reflating the housing bubble is just plain stupid.
The time to fix the problem was before it started, long before Obama got into the WH.
The mistake this writer and many a policy wonk makes is to assume there is always an easy way out of every crisis.
The strongest case against the Obama administration’s economic policy goes something like this:
Early on, the Obama administration misunderstood the unusual nature of the crisis. You can see it in its forecasts, which predicted a rapid, “V”-shaped recovery even if Congress didn’t pass a stimulus bill. And you can see it in the administration’s policies, which focused on supporting the financial system while it kickstarted growth by putting people back to work, handing out tax cuts and stopping state and local governments from laying people off.
The precise nature of the administration’s misunderstanding was that the key problem was household debt, and until that problem was solved the economy couldn’t recover. But while it had a clear strategy for attacking bad debt in the banking system, and a clear strategy for attacking the fall in consumer spending, it never had a clear strategy for reducing housing debt.
Instead, the administration believed that the best and fairest way to fix the housing system was to fix the economy. If people had jobs and tax cuts and unemployment insurance, they would be able to pay their mortgages and they would be able to buy new homes and that would take care of the housing problem.
That did not take care of the problem– it did not come close to taking care of the problem.
So one view is that the administration basically got the crisis backward. You couldn’t fix the housing crisis by fixing the economy. You had to fix the economy by fixing the housing crisis. And the administration’s housing policy wasn’t anywhere near sufficient to do that. This mistake was doubly disastrous because monetary policy, which would normally be a huge driver of recovery, typically works through the housing market, encouraging consumers to buy new homes while interest rates are low. Leaving the housing market’s dysfunctions to fester also meant that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to lower long-term interest rates had little affect on the economy.
In this morning’s New York Times, Binyamin Appelbaum tells the story of the administration’s disappointing housing policy response. It’s worth reading alongside Zach Goldfarb’s September look at the same subject. Together, the articles make an ironclad case that the Obama administration’s housing policies failed to fix the housing crisis, in part because they never really tried to fix the housing crisis.
As Appelbaum puts it, while Obama “poured vast amounts of money into efforts to stabilize the financial system, rescue the auto industry and revive the economy,” he “tried to finesse the cleanup of the housing crash, rejecting unpopular proposals for a broad bailout of homeowners facing foreclosure in favor of a limited aid program — and a bet that a recovering economy would take care of the rest.”
…
With global stock markets making a heroic effort to currently price in future stimulus, methinks the sucker will go down on the actual stimulus announcement, and even more without one, unless a non-announcement is supported by stealth stimulus.
O.C. school’s ‘Seniores,’ ‘Señoritas’ events called demeaning
“Officials canceled an Anaheim high school annual event after concluding it was demeaning to Latinos. Students dressed as gang members and pregnant females pushing strollers.”
“Administrators at the school will undergo diversity and sensitivity training, and the school will offer an ethnic studies class for students and hold an International Week activity in the 2012-13 school year, according to Sterling.”
The FOMC is rapidly turning the MSM into a QE3 echo chamber. If they keep up this level of chatter, the stock market will crash on the September meeting announcement, whether or not QE3 is a go. Same thing happened to FB stock, thanks to excessive hyping of the IPO.
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news still works now, just the same as it ever did!
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said easier monetary policy around the world, including in China, would support growth, broadening his call for more stimulus in the U.S.
“I don’t need to see any more data to know that I think we should have more accommodation,” Evans said to reporters today in Beijing, referring to the U.S. “I certainly would applaud anybody who takes action in order to strengthen their economies” around the world, including China, he said.
Many Fed policy makers said additional stimulus would probably be needed soon unless the U.S. economy shows signs of a durable pickup, according to minutes of their most recent meeting released yesterday. Evans, who doesn’t vote on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, has been among the most vocal proponents of more accommodation.
“There’s an awful lot of uncertainty when I talk to business people about the global economy, European situation, the fiscal-cliff risk,” Evans said in a press briefing at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. Fiscal cliff is a term for higher taxes and spending cuts in the U.S. that will take effect at year-end unless Congress acts.
A private survey today indicated that China’s manufacturing is weakening, signaling more stimulus may be needed to secure a second-half economic rebound. China cut interest rates in June and July and has lowered the reserve-requirement ratio for banks three times from November to May. Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday that more adjustments to rates and the ratio can’t be ruled out.
Bernanke Speech
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who last month said the Fed may buy more bonds to cut borrowing costs, has an opportunity to clarify his views in an Aug. 31 speech to the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The FOMC is scheduled to next meet on Sept. 12-13.
A third round of asset purchases by the Fed would “provide confidence to markets that we are intending to be accommodative for quite some time,” Evans said today.
…
Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney speaks to supporters at an event held at Sierra Truck Body & Equipment, a North Las Vegas business, Friday, Aug 3, 2012.
The Associated Press
Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2012 | 5:18 p.m.
Mitt Romney says Nevada’s housing market would rebound if federal mortgage backers sell the thousands of homes they hold and make more options available to avoid foreclosure.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee tells KRNV-TV that getting homes out of foreclosure and on the market will spur buying and rejuvenate Nevada’s housing slump.
Romney says Nevada’s lingering housing woes show the president’s policies haven’t worked. He spoke to the Reno television station Tuesday.
His comments are in contrast to earlier remarks, when he said the foreclosure process in Nevada should be allowed to “run its course and hit the bottom.”
Nevada has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation, and more than 60 percent of homeowners owe more on their homes than their properties are worth.
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And another one bites the dust.
Belize is in danger of defaulting on its debt after it missed a $23m (£14.6m) bond payment due on Monday.
The government still has a 30-day grace period to pay the interest, but said it was unlikely to be able to do so.
Creditors accuse Belize of trying to force a Greek-style debt restructuring on holders of the $550m bond, which represents half its public debt.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19330491
can’t they just borrow more money to make the payment?
Don’t these people know this has already been answered? Have the govt pay people to dig ditches and fill them back in. Problem solved!
Problem solved, IF the economy was fundamentally sound and not plagued by trade imbalance. IF that were the case, than government could add some money to circulation, and it would stay there, allowing government to back off the stimulus.
What we have is a global economy that has embraced trade imbalances. The government spends some money into the economy, it quickly drains out of circulation into the global and domestic trade imbalances, and then the government is forced to again borrow more money into existence.
Keynes philosophy of using government spending to attempt to flatten the business cycle ONLY applies to otherwise fundamentally sound economy, and our trade imbalance plagued global economies are ANYTHING but fundamentally sound.
We forgot that the economy should exist to ensure the efficient production and distribution of goods and services, and have embraced the idea that the economy exists so the super rich can get ever super richer by creating and exploiting global imbalances!
So what would happen if the Fed just printed up a billion or so dollars, paid off Treasury debt and issued no new debt to replace it?
So what would happen if the Fed just printed up a billion or so dollars, paid off Treasury debt and issued no new debt to replace it?
The fed’s balance sheet has to balance by definition. How was the printing transaction booked? What account(s) was credited to offset the debit / asset [newly printed money]?
If they book the source ( credit ) as a liability there’s your debt. If they book it to a P&L account then they would be treating it as earnings. If they book it to an Asset … maybe its time for an audit!, an independent, verified one!
I would like to know how much the owner’s of the Fed profit from charging the country interest on its debt. I realize that some gets paid back to the treasury and a guaranteed percentage i retained as profit.
Who gets how much?
“So what would happen if the Fed just printed up a billion or so dollars, paid off Treasury debt and issued no new debt to replace it?”
The Belize central bank can only print Belize money. I’m sure their debt is not denominated in their local currency. Their debt is almost certainly denominated in US Dollars, and they can’t issue dollars. Again, my comment that the problem occurs when the debt is not in the local currency.
“I would like to know how much the owner’s of the Fed profit from charging the country interest on its debt. I realize that some gets paid back to the treasury and a guaranteed percentage i retained as profit.
Who gets how much?”
Oh, that one is simple to answer.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/clbs-federal-reserve-banks-financial-tables-201202.htm
For 2011, the Fed made $66B in interest on its holdings which started the year at $2.5T and ended closer to $3T. It then paid out $3T in interest to banks that had reserves deposited in the Fed, for a net income of $63.6B.
The biggest drain is the actual cost of operating the Fed. Some $3.8B a year, including $3B to pay some 18K employees.
$1.8B loss on the value of the assets it held, and $240M due to under performance of the employee retirement fund.
Net profit of $58B. A $240M adjustment to funded status brings profit up to $58.2B
It then paid out $1.1B in dividends to the member banks (1.9% of net profit).
The reduced its retained earnings to cover future losses by $519M as $1.8B in losses were realized above….
That made for a net return to the treasury of $57.5B.
The “audit of the Fed” is not about how much they earn, spend, or return to the Treasury The “audit the Fed” is all about getting the dirty on which banks are doing liquidity actions (doing repurchase agreements of illiquid assets for liquid cash). I guess Ron Paul, and the other’s calling for the audits want to cause a run on the banks that are having the lost liquidity issues.
(Note: a liquidity issue is not the same as being insolvent.)
Do they have a central bank? That’s all they need! You just fire up the QE, and you’re good! QE1, QE2, QE3, QE cubed, you get the picture.
Fed minutes show active discussion of QE3
A new ‘substantial’ round of bond buys considered
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-minutes-show-active-discussion-of-qe3-2012-08-22-14103110
Since the Fed minutes were released, Mr Market has been running around like a headless chicken.
We were about to lock in a rate today (30 year). Waiting ’til tomorrow. Fingers crossed.
Good. We’re glad you’re locked in.
Enjoy the sentence.
Only helps if the debt is denominated in your own currency. If the debt is denominated in someone else’s currency, printing more of yours does you no good.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/files/2012/08/garbagechart.png
No purchases equals no trash.
Yep. To end pollution tomorrow, all one would need to do would be to halt all economic production.
No purchases equals no trash
FWIW our recycling bin at home fills up a lot more than the trash bin does.
Same here. I still unfortunately see plastic bottles in the garbage in many places (gym, airport, etc) but I’m glad as a society that we’re shifting to this level of reuse, recycle, etc.
I was taught my own recycle-nazi habits by proactive parents who have recycled everything they can since the 70s, before they had a nice yellow bin in which to do so. Not doing so was a waste of resources.
Plastic bottle recycle solution….interesting:
http://www.vcstar.com/news/2012/aug/21/anti-bottle-creator-vapur-expands-to-refill/
I was taught my own recycle-nazi habits by proactive parents who have recycled everything they can since the 70s, before they had a nice yellow bin in which to do so. Not doing so was a waste of resources.
Sleepless, I can totally relate. I was raised by conservative Republicans who were staunch environmentalists.
Wasting anything wasn’t just bad. It was a sin.
Madre was such a recycling Nazi that when friends TP’d our house after a big game, she made us collect it in dozens of brown paper bags and use it in our bathroom for the next year instead of buying new rolls. No use wasting perfectly good used toilet paper….
I wonder if TPing houses has lost its appeal as the TP itself is so much more expensive. Or maybe the kids just take the stuff from home? Their parents must have fits. TP has definitely gone up in price per roll and the rolls are smaller.
Neighbor’s house got TP’d within the past year ago…I guess it still holds some appeal.
“FWIW our recycling bin at home fills up a lot more than the trash bin does.”
Same. I still notice apartment and office complexes with no recycling, and if you work around office type people, you know how much waste they produce every day.
Greece’s Prime Minister, Antonis Samaras, has called for more time to implement tough spending cuts and reforms, ahead of talks on its bailout.
Mr Samaras told German daily Bild that Greece needed “breathing space”.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19329402
News out reveals — shock! — that Portugal’s economy is still shrinking. And, according to the wizards at the global research division of Citi, it will “probably require an extension of its bailout package despite the fact that the government has dutifully reduced its expenditure and diligently implemented most of the measures mandated under the Troika program.”
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/portugals-economy-is-looking-a-little-less-porky-and-a-lot-more-thin/2012/08/21/
Inflation has been almost continuously above target since 2008, while the spending cuts scheduled are more sustained than any developed country has ever delivered. What’s more, there is no end in sight.
The glass half full view observes that things could have been a lot worse. Britain’s bust banks were about as large, relative to the economy, as Ireland’s or Spain’s, yet we haven’t been driven to seek an international bail-out. Despite planning a 12pc of GDP budget deficit, bond markets have not lost faith. Deflation didn’t get out of control. Unemployment has stayed modest. And, while there’s been a double dip, it’s only a small one so far.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/9486441/The-British-economy-faces-three-very-different-futures.html
Austerity and the Euro are working well for Europe.
After awhile, Greek theater gets so boring.
EUROPE NEWS
Updated August 22, 2012, 8:11 a.m. ET
Europe Pressures Intensify
Germany’s Merkel Faces Tough Choices as Greek Crisis Threatens Euro Anew
By MARCUS WALKER
Chancellor Merkel, with other German officials Tuesday, faces opposition in her coalition to more Greek aid.
BERLIN—German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces one of the toughest choices of her career in the coming weeks: whether to risk the unraveling of the euro zone, or her government.
After a summer lull, Greece is again Ms. Merkel’s biggest headache.
The Greek government, struggling with depression-like conditions that have pushed the economy to the brink, is likely to need many billions of euros of additional aid to avoid bankruptcy.
If Athens doesn’t get the money, it may be forced to leave the euro, an outcome that would undermine financial markets’ tenuous confidence in other vulnerable southern euro members, including Spain and Italy.
Her junior coalition partners are especially against lending Greece more money, threatening to leave her either without a governing majority—or without a plausible way to cover Athens’s funding gap.
“It is one of the hardest dilemmas she has faced as chancellor,” said an adviser to Ms. Merkel. The chancellor is set to meet with French President François Hollande on Thursday and Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras on Friday, meetings the chancellor’s aides say will help determine Berlin’s course.
…
” ‘We need to get out of this negative psychology, which is like a black hole. Greeks have voted for a new government to put the country on a new course,’ the prime minister insisted.
‘We are making progress in structural reforms and privatisations. And it is not fair when some people in Europe want to keep pushing us back into this hole,’ he said in comments translated into German.”
It’s, like, TOTALLY, not fair.
Global shares, euro fall as Greek meetings loom
Grim Asia trade data dents global recovery hopes
A trader monitors the screen on a trading floor in London January 22, 2010. REUTERS-Stefan Wermuth
A man is silhouetted in an electronic board showing the FTSE MIB Index for the Italian equity market in this photo illustration taken in Rome August 9, 2011. REUTERS-Tony Gentile
By Nigel Stephenson
LONDON | Wed Aug 22, 2012 9:11am EDT
(Reuters) - Global shares, the euro and Spanish bonds fell on Wednesday as the prime minister of struggling Greece was set to kick off a series of meetings that could set the course for the euro zone debt crisis.
Many big stock markets have risen 15-20 percent since June on expectations of central bank intervention to address the crisis, but with details unclear and obstacles still in the way of action, some investors doubt recent gains are merited.
…
I seem to detect a raise in Nationalism in Europe and the UK. Politicians have started to wrap themselves in the shrouds of long dead heroes (or villains depending on your take on history).
Next up: The emergence of a savior.
Or the return of an old devil.
ft dot com
Markets Insight
August 21, 2012 2:36 pm
Beware the Faustian bargains of central banks
By Scott Minerd
In Goethe’s 1831 drama Faust, the devil persuades a bankrupt emperor to print and spend vast quantities of paper money as a short-term fix for his country’s fiscal problems. As a consequence, the empire ultimately unravels and descends into chaos. Today, governments that have relied on quantitative easing instead of undertaking necessary structural reforms have arguably entered into the grandest Faustian bargain in financial history.
As a result of multi-trillion-dollar quantitative easing programmes, central banks have compromised their ability to control the money supply, making them vulnerable to runaway inflation. When interest rates rise, the value of central bank assets could fall below the face value of their liabilities, potentially rendering them incapable of protecting the purchasing power of their currencies. To better understand the potential consequences of quantitative easing, it is useful to review the historical evolution of central banking. Early central banks were essentially clearing houses for gold. Individuals and trading companies placed their bullion on deposit and received a claim that could be redeemed upon demand. The system’s strength was largely derived from its simplicity. Today’s global monetary system, by contrast, has virtually no gold backing and depends entirely on faith that central bankers can control the supply of paper money.
…
…and much voodoo and convoluted rationalizations.
It’s too early for the savior hero.
Same as here.
Didn’t we receive our savior when The One was anointed on a stage backed by imperial columns at the Democratic National Convention in Denver 2008 LOL?
Regarding nationalism, note the use of phrases like “take America back” and “restoring our future” et cetera in political campaigning…
“…take America back…”
How far back to the Republicans want to take America?
Back before the time where we borrowed any thing close to forty cents of every dollar we spend.
“Back before the time where we borrowed any thing close to forty cents of every dollar we spend.”
Don’t blame me. I never voted for Raygun. Or Bush. (I.e. the tax-and-spend Conservatives).
They seem to want to take our women back to Leviticus or Deuteronomy LOL!
Don’t blame me. I never voted for Raygun. Or Bush. (I.e. the tax-and-spend Conservatives).
I didn’t either. And, yes, I did hold my nose and vote for Carter in 1980, Mondale in 1984, and Dukakis in 1988.
Well obewanna / holder has set race relations back at least 20 years…not a word no outrage nothing
VCU and Richmond police described the assailants as a group of 15 black males between the ages of 17 and 22.
http://www2.timesdispatch.com/news/news/2012/aug/22/group-commits-assault-violent-robbery-vcus-main-ca-ar-2147611/
How far back? How about back to a time before the US of A existed? Back to feudalism! It appears that’s where we are headed. The ultimate ‘good old days’ for the 0.1%.
has set race relations back at least 20 years
How so? By forcing some Americans to acknowledge that they do in fact have a (half) black President?
Back before the time where we borrowed any thing close to forty cents of every dollar we spend.
But Dick Cheney said the deficits don’t matter.
I wonder how much the deficit will grow under Romney/Ryan? Invading and occupying Iran will cost some serious coin.
“I did hold my nose and vote for Carter in 1980, Mondale in 1984, and Dukakis in 1988.”
With only two choices, some times the best one requires you to hold your nose.
Iran is a much bigger project than Iraq. Just fighting their army in a neutral location (like inside the border of Iraq) would cost serious coin. Invading would take even more, and occupying (successfully) might not even be possible. Hopefully nobody is stupid enough to actually attempt it. Whatever must be taken out should be taken out from over the horizon.
how much the deficit will grow under Romney/Ryan?
And how much of that growth will be due to creating more private sector, for profit, government contractor jobs?
P.S. we are hiring!
“… take America back” - i cringe every time i hear that.. who are they trying to take it back from?
I always tell so-called Patriots that it’s MY America, too. Then when they start yammering on about “strict Constitutionalism” I ask them to name five rights guaranteed by the first amendment.
Usually shuts ‘em right up.
I keep a copy of the Constitution in my backpack. With a copy of my oath of office stapled into the front.
“Hopefully nobody is stupid enough to actually attempt it.”
Wouldn’t that comment have worked well for the prospect of invading Afghanistan a decade ago, or any time over the past millennium, for that matter?
Yeah, except we did actually have a good reason to go there. In that case I think we should have killed OBL at the first opportunity and then left. Not built any permanent facilities. And definitely not still be there now that he’s dead.
I went to the neighborhood (largely Greek) block party over the weekend. According to most, Greece’s problems are the result of immigrants. Shiftless Albanians or Turks or…
You must be in Tarpon Springs?
Right… the Albanians and Turks are taking away cushy government jobs from the Greeks, and the honest Greeks are paying all their taxes.
I guess the stock market will have to drop from now through August 31, to provide a suitable dramatic backdrop for Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech?
Eyes on the Fed
Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech may be a letdown
By Annalyn Censky
CNNMoney
August 22, 2012: 5:15 AM ET
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will speak later this month at an exclusive meeting of the world’s top economists in the shadow of the Grand Tetons in Jackson Hole, Wyo.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Every year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts a meeting of the world’s top economic minds near the small Wyoming town of Jackson Hole.
The invitation-only meeting is usually a big deal, closely watched by investors, economists and journalists. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has made market-moving announcements there in the past. But those who have been to the Jackson Hole meeting before aren’t expecting much from Bernanke when he gives a speech on August 31.
Allen Sinai, chief global economist for Decision Economics and a Jackson Hole attendee for the past 20 years, said people “will be disappointed” if they think Bernanke will signal that the Fed is ready to launch a third round of quantitative easing or QE3.
“I don’t think he’s going to say anything new,” added Catherine Mann, a finance professor at Brandeis University and former Fed economist who has attended the meeting twice.
Wall Street has high expectations for Bernanke to make a bold statement about future policy.
…
The China Post
Updated Tuesday, August 14, 2012 11:28 am TWN,
By Mark Felsenthal, Reuters
Romney selects fierce critic of Federal Reserve in Ryan
WASHINGTON — Paul Ryan, who is known in Washington as a budget hawk, brings an extra appeal to conservatives as a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to stimulate growth.
In picking Ryan, Romney shifted the conversation about the presidential race to one that starkly contrasts Republican and Democratic views on government spending and debt.
Part of that dialogue is the role of the Fed, which in the past few years has undertaken a massive effort to ease monetary policy and stimulate spending in a way that conservatives have decried as disastrous for America’s future.
As the Republican chairman of the House Budget Committee and through his membership on other House panels, Ryan has frequently verbally sparred with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, especially over the Fed’s bond buying.
After lowering interest rates to near zero in 2008 to pull the economy out of a deep recession, the Fed has bought US$2.3 trillion in bonds and mortgage-related debt to support the recovery.
But many worry the bond buying, known as quantitative easing, is setting the stage for inflation.
Ryan took Bernanke to task at a hearing in February 2011 over the Fed’s bond purchases, which the central bank used to pull down longer term interest rates.
“My concern is that the costs of the Fed’s current monetary policy — the money creation and massive balance sheet expansion — will come to outweigh the perceived short-term benefits,” Ryan said.
While one result of the Fed’s ultra-easy monetary policy has been a weaker dollar that has boosted U.S. exports, Ryan has said there is “nothing more insidious that a country can do to its citizens than debase its currency.”
Ryan has also supported moves to clip the Fed’s wings.
…
Ryan has said there is “nothing more insidious that a country can do to its citizens than debase its currency.”
well there you go.
Except maybe lying about not asking for bailout money.
It is a little vague, but I think you made a mistake there. Wasn’t it more accurately stimulus money? If you admit your mistake, that would make you a what?
Yer right. It was stimulus money.
Now that we’ve split that hair, the point is still the FACT that lied.
So did you just lie about Ryan asking for bail out money?
So did you just lie about Ryan asking for bail out money?
No, that was Ryan who lied. Turkey just got his words mixed up. There’s an obvious difference.
And as much as our ‘apolitical’ Blue Skye would like to spin it otherwise, Ryan LIED about not taking bailout money. He didn’t make a mistake in his phrasing. He LIED. Like a lying liar will.
debase its currency
Especially when privatized Medicare vouchers are distributed using the same debased currency.
Didn’t the RNC warn their candidates?
DON’T FIGHT THE FED!
Romney, Ryan double up against Obama and the Fed
Tue Aug 21, 2012 12:13am IST
* Republican buddy act in New Hampshire
* Ryan says Medicare debate needed
* Romney says Fed should be audited
By Steve Holland
GOFFSTOWN, N.H., Aug 20 (Reuters) - Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan engaged in tag-team attacks on President Barack Obama and the Federal Reserve on Monday at a joint appearance that showcased the chemistry between the Republican presidential candidate and his running mate.
Romney, 65, and Ryan, 42, took their act to New Hampshire, a swing state whose four electoral votes could play an outsize role in determining the winner in the Nov. 6 presidential election in a race that remains agonizingly close with fewer than 80 days of campaigning left.
Romney’s goal is to introduce his vice presidential pick to American voters and seek to reassure them that a Ryan-backed budget plan in the House of Representatives would not lead to dramatic cuts to the Medicare health program for seniors.
Since his candidacy was announced just over a week ago, Democrats have engaged in an assault on Ryan for promoting a Medicare plan that would change how Americans currently under age 55 would receive benefits when they retire.
The Medicare debate has changed the focus of the campaign, which had been fought for the most part on the health of the U.S. economy. The Romney campaign has sought to turn the Medicare issue into a strength by saying Romney and Ryan would repair a troubled program.
Ryan, accusing Obama of using $716 billion in Medicare funds to pay for his healthcare overhaul, told the crowd “we need this debate” about the future of the expensive entitlement program. “We’re going to win this debate about Medicare,” he said.
AUDIT THE FED
At a town hall meeting, a question about the Federal Reserve, which many conservatives feel is an overly powerful agency that lacks transparency, drew an appeal from Romney for an audit of the Fed and a demand that Obama’s own government spending be investigated.
“The answer is yes to that, very simple, the answer is yes,” Romney said when asked whether the Fed should be audited. “The Federal Reserve should be accountable. We should see what they’re doing.”
…
“The Federal Reserve should be accountable. We should see what they’re doing.”
Can we see your tax returns too?
“My concern is that the costs of the Fed’s current monetary policy — the money creation and massive balance sheet expansion ”
Showing that Ryan doesn’t understand that the money was created when the banks made the loans to customers. Changing who the borrow owes does not create new money.
Yes, the Fed buying loans from banks should make it possible for the banks to make more loans, however the limiting factor on new loan creation is a lack of qualified borrows coming in and asking for loans. QE can not make more qualified borrows walk into banks asking for loans, therefore, no money creation. At best, QE will cause the banks to continue to buy the new treasury issues, allowing the government to create new money via deficit spending for awhile longer.
Your comment is inconsistent. The buying of the treasuries does “create” money so why is it that Ryan wrong about the federal reserve creating money, since QE is mainly about buying treasuries. It is the moneterization of the debt which is the problem and you can’t have that without Fed policy.
You are forgetting the macro accounting identity. As long as we have a trade deficit, either government (taken as a whole) or private people or both must be taking on more debt with the sum of the extra debt equal to the trade imbalance. If the fed wasn’t buying treasuries, someone else would have to be (we’d have to be paying a lot more in interest to make that happen) or private people would have to be going into more debt, or states or someone. Mauldin goes over this all the time.
It should help Obama’s election prospects if the Fed manages to push through QE3 at their next meeting.
‘QE3′ was on Fed’s table
Central bankers moved closer to giving the green light on a new round of bond purchases, minutes from the last Fed meeting reveal.
…
With yields at historical lows and bond *prices* at historical highs, isn’t this exactly counter intuitive to “buy low, sell high”. I mean, I know they are *giving money away* but shouldn’t we even make the tiniest effort to get some kind of value out of the money being given away?
How is this different than paying top dollar for bad loans to get them off banks books?
Aug. 22, 2012, 2:13 p.m. EDT
Get ready for QE3
Commentary: FOMC signals another round of bond-buying soon
By MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Get ready for QE3.
Top officials of the Federal Reserve are leaning strongly in favor of a third round of bond buying by the Fed, known colloquially as QE3, according to the minutes of the Aug. 1 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Here’s the money quote from the FOMC minutes: “Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.” Read our full news coverage of the minutes.
The economic data have stabilized since Aug. 1, but it’s not at all clear that the improvement in the economic data has been “substantial” enough to forestall further action by the Fed.
…
“Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech may be a letdown”
The fact that these economic terrorists get together in Jackson Hole is a letdown. Put them in a Motel 6 in Gary, Indiana, preferably at night. Make them walk to get their meals.
Aug. 22, 2012, 6:26 a.m. EDT
Stock futures edge lower ahead of Fed minutes
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock index futures drifted lower Wednesday, trailing losses in Asia and Europe after weak Japanese trade data underlined global growth worries as investors awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 18 points, or 0.1%, to 13,181.
Approval of Congress has matched its all-time low, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
S&P 500 index futures dropped 2.8 points, or 0.2%, to 1,409.70, while Nasdaq-100 futures declined 4.75 points to 2,769.25.
Asian equities lost ground after Japanese data showed the country swung to a trade deficit in July as exports plunged. Read: Asia stock markets pull back after gains .
The tone fed through to Europe and appeared to be casting a cloud over U.S. stock index futures as well, strategists said.
“Japan is the world’s fourth-largest exporter and markets appear to have interpreted the sharp decline in overseas sales in terms of its implications for slowing global demand,” said Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFX, in emailed comments.
…
What do these three statements have in common?
1. My pension is underfunded so I had better retire now so as to cash in while I still can.
2. My home equity if vanishing right before my eyes so I had better extract as much of it as possible while I still have the chance.
3. My girlfriend is always going out with other guys so I need to marry her so I can keep her all to myself.
They remind me of that old Police song about the world running down. You know the one…
When the world is running down
You get the best of what’s still around
I would argue that statement two turned out to be wise for many a “FB”. They spent the money or sent it to Mexico. They did not put any money down and many actually lived in the house for years for no rent before they were thrown out. Technically, the banks could come after them but since they are now unemployed or working under the table, they can declare bankruptcy.
Here is a video I love it may go with why this board is mad about a lot of things:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57497280/video-monkey-angrily-rejects-unequal-pay/?tag=cbsnewsSectionContent.11
Thanks, Dan, that was awesome.
You are welcome. I think what unites this board is the fact that most of us saw the inflated house prices caused by the cheap interest policies of the Fed and the greed of the big banks, did the “wise” thing and refused to buy and then waited for the fall in prices. However, instead of getting a real fall, government stepped in and prevented our opportunity to pick up a house really cheap. Meanwhile, all sympathy has been directed to people that did not save but got a house for nothing down at a teaser interest rate, HELOCed to the max and lived rent free for years in nice properties. I feel like throwing the stone and not the cucumber.
Just remember, it isn’t about saving the FB’s.
It’s about saving the banksters. All those “cheap houses” many here are anxiously waiting to come on the market represent a loss to the banking cartel.
Agree with CO and also I don’t think you can get reelected with dropping house prices.
“…I don’t think you can get reelected with dropping house prices.”
+1 Self interest above what’s best for the country.
“…I don’t think you can get reelected with dropping house prices.”
..
WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans bought more homes in July than in June and prices rose, evidence that the housing market is slowly recovering.
The National Association of Realtors says sales of previously occupied homes rose to 4.47 million in July, a 2.3 percent increase from the previous month. It was the first increase in three months.
But the recovery is slow and uneven. July sales were below the 4.6 million pace reached in April and May. And the annual sales pace is below the roughly 5.5 million that economists consider healthy.
..
This issue is about the banks and the bond market and the big players, not the house-flipping muppets who never really understood why house prices were doing what they were doing, just that they always did it, and always would.
The actual house buyers are muppets. If sacrificing them was the cost of helping the financial sector, they would be sacrificed instantaneously.
The bottom line is - either the muppets are going to pay, or the public in general is going to pay. The muppets promised to pay a lot, but there was always little chance of that, and now the system pretends their promises meant something. A lot of the big boys’ bonuses depends on those promises being kept. So the taxpayer is being bled to keep those promises.
“+1 Self interest above what’s best for the country.”
Hallelujah! I’m a “progressive” voter, but it peeves me when people goof on the Tea Partiers (or whoever) for “voting against their own interest” due to cluelessness. Perhaps they are, but I respect that more, as it’s voting based on a larger philosophy, flawed or not, rather than an “are you better off now that you were four years ago?” type of nonsense.
Should read “THAN you were four years ago”
Perhaps they are, but I respect that more, as it’s voting based on a larger philosophy, flawed or not, rather than an “are you better off now that you were four years ago?”
What is their larger philosophy? “Shrink government and government spending! (But I get to keep my Social Security and Medicare!)”
They may think they’re voting on a larger philosophy, but it’s only because they exempt themselves from its results. If they were ready to give up their own entitlements, then I’d respect them, too. They aren’t.
You tell that monkey in the left cage belongs to a public sector union.
That’s a cool clip of the monkey . Is it any wonder that people are in a uproar about getting less than they were promised and they want to draw the line at 55 to give people less .
“3. My girlfriend is always going out with other guys so I need to marry her so I can keep her all to myself.”
Actually you should go around and personally thank the other guys for getting her out of your grill once in a while…and perhaps even sharing in the upkeep.
Taking a breather… I’m looking forward to a day of HBB and coffee.
*Posted during taxpayer funded personal leave
“*Posted during taxpayer funded personal leave”
At least no bailout funds were involved (or were they?!)…
Nope. In my previous assignment, yes.
President extends federal pay freeze
By Lisa Rein, Published: August 21
President Obama told congressional leaders Tuesday that he is extending a two-year pay freeze for federal employees until at least next spring because Congress has not agreed on a budget for the next fiscal year.
The freeze will stay in effect until a spending plan is passed, but the presidential election makes it unlikely that will happen before the start of fiscal 2013 on Oct. 1. As a result, the president is required by the end of August to come up with an “alternative pay plan” to avoid a legal trigger that would automatically raise federal pay in line with private-sector salaries. The alternative pay plan is usually a routine event signaling that Congress and the White House have agreed on a salary increase for federal workers.
…
“legal trigger that would automatically raise federal pay in line with private-sector salaries.”
I assume that “trigger” doesn’t work in the opposite direction, as in lowering federal pay in line with private sector salaries.
Every year I have been a fed, the trigger, if it had been allowed to happen, would have increased federal pay by approximately 15%.
Are you still a fed?
Yes.
Highly educated people in the federal work force are underpaid, but get to hold on to their ethics. Less educated people in the federal work force are often paid more than their private sector counterparts, but that is largely because they have many more years of service. Given how bad our computer systems are (federal budgeting requirements make big IT projects very hard to fund), loosing the experienced admin people would be a giant mess.
Darn. Losing. That “loosers” meme is getting to me.
That “loosers” meme is getting to me.
That’s funny. Soon none of us will remember for sure how it’s supposed to be spelled.
My favorite reminder,
Losers Spell it Loosers
Loosers spell it losers?
If Obama wins the election more government contractor jobs will be created.
If Romney wins the election more government contractor jobs will be created.
* posted from non-government contractor network (can verify the IP address with Ben)
*Acknowledging your non-government contractor network. Thank you for your cooperation, useless eater #44989u-8-8989282-fg445.
Thank smithers and banana for their taxpayer dollars to pay for private sector, for profit, government contractors to do the work that federal goons won’t do
Doesn’t look like a vote getting move. Romney would have increased it every year.
Is best buy on its way out? Seems like they cant hardly give electronics away these days.
I guess those flat screens dont sell to well when people actually have to pay for them with wages.
Plus everyone already has two or more.
market saturation? what about all those aapl products? How long will it be before all the hedge funds jump off the aapl bandwagon? I see the stock crashing to reality at some point soon.
As long as Apple can convince the faithful to upgrade their iPhones every time a new model comes out they should be fine. And judging from my co-workers lunchtime prattle, that shouldn’t be a problem.
I shouldn’t be a problem until it is. Apple is a fad company that once completed technology. I say completed because they had no original ideas, they just put other ideas together quite well and marketed them extremely well.
Now there is enough competition in the marketplace that will allow Apple to fade into the background as they did in the 1990’s. It won’t be instant, but if they keep up their attitude of customers will buy whatever we put out, it will happen.
“Now there is enough competition in the marketplace that will allow Apple to fade into the background as they did in the 1990’s. It won’t be instant, but if they keep up their attitude of customers will buy whatever we put out, it will happen.”
Andy hit a home run.
Once upon a time, Apple machines were sold with what was considered superior technology. SCSI, Motorola processors, Firewire. And a rep for better layout/graphic design tools. A premium was understandable.
Now, there is nothing you can do with a premium priced Mac that you can’t do just as well with a homebuilt Windows\Linux system. OS X is nice, and inexpensive. It can be made to run on non-Apple hardware. And open source OS/apps are getting better every day.
iPhones and iPads are nice and some family members want iPods, but when I tell them what they cost….they stick with their Zens and Zunes.
Andy why hasn’t anyone come out with a fully functioning mini pc…that uses 65 watts instead of 250-350+ watts
I know the PC was meant for the hobbyist to upgrade….
Now there is enough competition in the marketplace that will allow Apple to fade into the background as they did in the 1990’s
If they win their patent suits, they’ll be just fine without doing anything new at all. They can just charge everyone else for immitating their designs at a much lower price point.
If you read into the judge’s strong suggestion of working out a deal in the most recent Samsung case, you know that the patent case isn’t holding water.
Judges don’t strongly recommend a deal because the plaintiff is flat out wrong. They recommend a deal when they think there is some merit in the case but they don’t want to have it clogging up their court room for 2 years.
http://www.raspberrypi.org/
Raspberry Pi
OS X is nice
And unlike Winders it’s UNIX based.
Linux can be run on PC’s, but you get a Neanderthal era GUI with it. That won’t fly with most PC users.
Macs will always be “boutique” systems that are pricey. Ditto the iPad, which is an upper middle class toy and status symbol. I don’t travel much, but earlier this year I did, and was astounded by the number of iPads I saw at the airports, in the hands of the well to do.
What will be interesting to watch will be the duke out between Droid and iPhone, which I think is Apple’s most vulnerable position.
The iPod has its market all sewn up. I don’t even know anyone who uses a Zune or a generic MP3 player.
and some family members want iPods, but when I tell them what they cost….they stick with their Zens and Zunes
Huh? You can get a shuffle for as little as $49.
The Zune? It was discontinued last year.
Guess you haven’t used Linux in the past 4 years or so. “Neanderthal era GUI” is completely off the mark.
“If you read into the judge’s strong suggestion of working out a deal in the most recent Samsung case, you know that the patent case isn’t holding water.”
Is that the patent case over Samsung’s tablet looking like a tablet?
Macs will always be “boutique” systems that are pricey. Ditto the iPad, which is an upper middle class toy and status symbol. I don’t travel much, but earlier this year I did, and was astounded by the number of iPads I saw at the airports, in the hands of the well to do.
I know someone like that. Every e-mail I get says that it’s sent from her iPad.
Okay, I get it, sweetie.
You have a high-paying CEO job, so of course you’re rocking an iPad. Does your sigfile need to rub it in?
I agree those sigs are really annoying. The reason you see them is that Apple sets them as the default and most people don’t bother or don’t know how to change it.
BBs biggest problems was price and customer service.
Wait, what does that leave? Oh yeah, nothing.
If decent TV shows came with the flatscreens then I might buy one.
We finally cancelled the Dish Network service. Now all we have is Netflix online.
Dish Networks’ “welcome pack” is all we choose to keep. $14.95 is worth it to me.
Best Buy can not survive as the show room for Amazon.
People go it Best Buy, try out products, decide what they want to buy, then buy it from an online source that will deliver it to their door for 20-40% less, and no sales tax.
It’s been over two years since I last set foot in one of their stores.
Been about four years for me.
After Christmas I got an open box TV at Best Buy. I got a great price on it. I hadn’t been in before for quite some time and I haven’t been back since. If I could be assured of the same kind of value every time I’d shop there more.
Republicans won’t defend the mortgage-interest tax break in their platform. But Romney will.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/21/republicans-wont-defend-the-mortgage-interest-tax-break-in-their-platform-but-romney-will/
tease:
This doesn’t mean that the party’s gunning to get rid of the mortgage-interest deduction any time soon. Removing the language may, in fact, help the Republican Party drive home the message that it’s committed to tax reform, as Talent suggests. But Romney has suggested that he’d largely preserve the mortgage-interest deduction, excluding it from the (yet to be specified) loopholes that he plans to close to support his tax plan.
“I have noted before my commitment to preserve tax preferences for middle-income taxpayers such as homeownership, charitable giving and health care,” he told Fortune in a recent interview. Romney has promised to get rid of the tax deduction for second homes, but that would only save about $10 billion annually from a tax break that costs the government $100 billion a year, according to the Tax Policy Center.
Has anyone ever done an analysis of how much of the mortgage interest deduction goes to the 1%?
Yep. Turns out the home mortgage interest deduction mainly benefits the 1%. Whad’ya know?
Only Rich People Benefit From The Home Interest Mortgage Deduction
Jill Krasny | Jul. 3, 2012, 2:08 PM
versace mansion
Harvard economist Edward Glaeser sees a lot of problems with the government’s home mortgage policies in that they’re pushing American families out of energy-efficient cities and into the suburbs, where the cost of living is higher and it’s harder to save money.
Now in his new paper, he argues the only people benefiting from the home mortgage interest deduction are the richest Americans. Citing a 2008 study, he notes that families who earn between $40,000 and $75,000 only save $523/year whereas those in the $250,000 and up club are pocketing a whopping $5,459/year.
“From a purely economic perspective, the regressive nature of the tax deduction may be problematic because it suggests that the deduction is poorly targeted,” he says. “From a narrow economic perspective, the fact that the benefit goes disproportionately toward more prosperous individuals raises doubts about whether it effectively encourages homeownership.”
The home mortgage interest deduction also does little to help the middle class. Returning to the 2008 paper, Glaeser says that most middle-income homeowners don’t even bother to itemize their annual tax returns, which tips the scales in wealthy Americans’ favor and helps them reap more benefits.
I’ve mentioned this before. You don’t have to be a 1%er to get a big boost from the MID if you are also making a 10% charitable contribution to your church. And people in that category do tend to vote R, or so I hear.
There are only 6 million Mormons in the entire USA. To put that into perspective, there are more Catholics in the metro LA area alone.
I thought there were plenty of other religions whose members also tithed? Including Catholics?
Nearly all Christian denominations tell you to give 10%. The Mormans are a bit more strict about it, kind of like the Catholics used to be. They used to post the parish members who didn’t tithe in the bulletin…yikes!
Our catholic church published the weekly donations in the bulletin sorted in descending order.
My family was always near the bottom at $2 / week. Not a bad deal when it included an education and school bussing for 3 children.
I thought there were plenty of other religions whose members also tithed? Including Catholics?
In what universe would that be, LOL!
<i.The Mormans are a bit more strict about it, kind of like the Catholics used to be.
My understanding is that to be in good standing in the LDS, that a 10% tithe is mandatory. There is no such requirement in the RCC
Depends on your definition of “good standing”, but yes.
So are you saying that Mormons are the only ones paying their tithing to the point where they declare it on their taxes? I know that I have heard discussion among people of other religions that implied that they were.
Anyway, whatever percentage of people that ends up being, those people get much more from the MID than someone might think based on their income.
If the 10% tithe is mandatory for membership does that mean its not tax deductible. I used to pay $250 membership to the gardens at wave hill (a botanical garden setup as a charity), but it wasn’t deductible because I got membership out of it.
“…My family was always near the bottom at $2 / week. Not a bad deal when it included an education and school bussing for 3 children….”
How very communist of you! Especially from someone who benefited from the system and derides it so today.
If the 10% tithe is mandatory for membership does that mean its not tax deductible.
It’s not mandatory for membership. It is necessary to participate in temple ceremonies, though.
“a tax break that costs the government”
i am all for phasing in the removal of the mortgage interest deduction but this mindset drives me crazy.
one of the things i agree with the republicans on is that this accepted notion that all the money is the government’s…and anything you keep is a cost to the goverment is ludicrous…and frightening.
But they invented it.
You mean the worthless paper or the notion that everything belongs to the government?
We are all Keynesians now — even Chinese communists!
S&P eyes China stimulus risks, city spending sprees floated
Wed Aug 22, 2012 2:24pm IST
* Tianjin plan report fuels fiscal stimulus speculation
* Tianjin government spokesman says has no knowledge of plan
* Report is latest of a string on unfunded, multi-year initiatives
* S&P says China has room to spend, but warns of risks
By Koh Gui Qing
BEIJING, Aug 22 (Reuters) - China can afford to deliver a fiscal stimulus for its sagging economy, but would risk making bad investments, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said on Wednesday as Chinese media fuelled speculation that a fresh spending boost was on the way.
In its new report, S&P said a mountain of debt left behind by a stimulus package that helped China fend off global recession four years ago has curbed Beijing’s appetite for a big stimulus this time round.
“Inefficient spending can impair China’s future growth trend,” the report said. “It could also deepen the damage of the last round of stimulus spending by further weakening the balance sheets of governments and commercial banks and raising future financing costs across the economy.”
S&P’s comments came as local media reported that Tianjin, a port on the northeastern coast that was one of China’s two fastest growing cities last year, was planning a multi-year investment programme worth $236 billion.
Though it is equivalent to around 150 percent of the city’s annual economic output, the only reference to the plan was a newspaper article on the city government’s website saying it exists.
The 1.5 trillion yuan plan envisages spending in 10 major sectors including petrochemicals, port equipment, new energy cars, and aerospace industries, yet a spokesman for the city government contacted by Reuters denied any knowledge of it.
There were no details of where the cash would come from or if it was in addition to sums already committed in official five-year economic plans.
A day earlier there were reports that the southwest city of Chongqing will also invest 1.5 trillion yuan into seven industries over the next three years. Several Chongqing officials also said they did not know of the plan.
Last month media reported Hunan’s Changsha city had launched a 829 billion yuan investment program, though there has been nothing official on the local government’s website since.
The reports have met with skepticism among analysts, and for all the hopes that the central government will deliver a fiscal stimulus, they warned against expecting too much at this stage.
The Chinese media has reported on a string of ambitious investment plans in the past month - including Wuhan, Ningbo and Guizhou - feeding talk that China is readying a giant government spending scheme to lift an economy mired in its worst downturn in three years, forecast to see growth cool to a 13-year low of 8 percent in 2012.
…
But this isn’t Keynes philosophy.
Keynes said that in AN OTHERWISE SOUND ECONOMY, government deficits or surpluses could be used to flatten the business cycle.
We’ve created flat-ish tax environments where the rich continually get richer, and the only way to keep economies functioning with so much money flowing out of active circulation into the hands of the few, is to contently be borrowing ever larger sums of new money into existence.
In a flat-ish tax environment, the only time the rich spend is if it will produces a positive RoI, meaning they get ever richer. We need a very steep tax code with very high top marginal rate and lots of deductions, to act as a stick to get the rich to spend simply because the negative RoI is still better than the tax!
Unless, of course, you can think of another way to get the rich to spend huge sums of money at a negative RoI, or some other way other than debt to contently be replacing the money into circulation that the rich getting richer drains from the economy….
People attack my ideas, but I don’t see them coming up with their own ideas for how to stop living on debt in the face of massive trade imbalances that drain money from circulation….
I’ll be here waiting for other ideas.
A grand compromise between the fossil fuel people and the green technologies. We have vast oil & gas resources off our coasts, ANWR etc and hundreds of years of coal. We could become energy independent and reduce are trade deficit by hundreds of billions a year by eliminating imported oil. So here is the compromise we exploit those resources but we use some of royalties and taxes to make a major push in solar and wind. Hopefully, within a few decades the price of the alternatives will be price competitive without the subsidies.
I was against drilling in ANWR when the price of oil was $10 a barrel but at $100 you can afford to protect the environment and still drill. Also, there is probably not a better time to use our fossil fuels since we will hit maximum price within a few years since after that declining prices in alternative energy sources should lead to hydrogen fueled or electric cars. That will cap the price of oil. Yes this is only a 30 year solution but as Keynes would say, we are all dead in the long run.
You can solve the trade deficit and most of budget deficit with this proposal. As far as your proposal just try raising taxes on the rich that much and they will move to Asia. When we use to tax people at the 75% or 95% rate, they had no where to move where they were not facing a similar tax. Not true anymore, just look what happened with the Facebook billionaire who moved with just our existing rates.
That should be 95% pre-Kennedy and 70% pre-Reagan.
All the Oil under ANWR and other protected areas in Alaska is maybe 10B barrels. Under the Dakotas is another 5B extractable. Off the coasts are another 5B or so.
Net imports are 8.4M barrels a day = 3B a year. So, we’re talking enough oil, IF we could exploit it all, and if a big chunk of that didn’t just go to replacing current production as our current wells age, for 6-7 years of imports.
I’m sure the companies that can profit hundreds of billions of dollars off that oil are very eager to drill baby, drill. I’m not sure it is ANYTHING close to a sound, long-term economic policy.
You are confusing reserve with resource. U.S. has just had around 24 billion barrels of reserves for decades yet we just keep producing that is because the resource is always much greater than the reserve. Increase each of your numbers of one order of magnitude and it would probably be right. Plus you can do coal to liquid plants and convert NG directly to gasoline if you want. We could reach energy independence if we want particularly with an increased contribution from alternative energy and new nuclear using better technology.
Long term? We have to deal with a massive trade deficit and budget deficit now. The new technologies part is the long term. Look right now I fight with some members of this board over global warming since I believe that only 10-15% of the warming that occurred between 1977-98 was due to Co2 emissions. I fully believe that within five years I will be fighting with ditto heads that will be saying see all the global warming was caused by nature and the cooling proves that. It is the price you pay when you try to make decisions on facts and not ideology.
In the Southwest the Hopi have been devasted by CA decision to close a coal fired electric plant in Nevada which they supplied with coal. The budget cuts impacted people that would love to have the income of a lucky ducky. The risks on a failure to getting the science right on global warming are not all in favor of cutting emissions. Even much higher electric rates impact the poor more.
10-15% seems like an arbitrary number. Just remember that we were just as concerned about another ice age in the 1970’s. I’m in the natural order of things camp. We don’t understand enough about climate change to label what’s man made vs. what occurs naturally.
The 10-15% figure was based on a peer reviewed paper that argued that co2 was only 1/7 the warming agent that other models assumed. It was published in 80’s and despite trying to find it, I cannot. I think the work has been vindicated over the years by the lack of warming over the last 15 years. However, even a warming of .14 degrees instead of 1 degree per decade is a major problem over enough decades. But since both the PDO and sunspots will prevent warming for the next few decades we do not need to move now before alternative energy is ready. We may even prevent some really cold temperatures such as I experienced in Vermont growing up in the 70’s. But when nature swings back to warming around 2030 we don’t want to be adding additional co2 on a parts per million basis.
Dan, you can obfuscate and pontificate here all you like, but the fact remains that you are wrong. And you work for an industry that depends upon obfuscation and pontification for its survival. In that sense, how are your canned talking points any different from Smithers’s?
Your posts on this subject sound like nothing so much as the States Rights people in the sixties trying to justify “scientifically” why the “Negro Problem” had to be approached gradually so the country didn’t suffer a huge shock to its system. Or more recently, the increasingly shrill justifications against gay marriages.
Please think about this?
Until you can explain how we can have 15 years of no global warming when co2 is suppose to be the primary driver of global warming you are the one that is engaged in pontification. The science community is increasing agreeing that they got the science wrong on global warming. Not that there is not global warming but their numbers were way off. BTW, you might also explain why the ice caps on Mars decreased during the last 70 years too. Not too many SUVs there. Don’t think it had anything to do with the most sunspots in 8000 years? For hundreds of years man has observed that low number of sunspots translates to low temperatures and vice versa. Because modern science cannot explain the exact mechanism does not make them wrong.
Your posts on this subject sound like nothing so much as the States Rights people in the sixties trying to justify “scientifically” why the “Negro Problem” had to be approached gradually so the country didn’t suffer a huge shock to its system. Or more recently, the increasingly shrill justifications against gay marriages.
Yeah Dan, don’t be relying on science, fess up to your racism and gay hatred!
Besides, your science is all wrong, the science of the left is all peer reviewed and funded and backed by all real scientist and Nancy Pelosi also Algore got a peace prize or something. That’s how science works, by consensus of the majority and which side got the oscar.
Yes, I am a racist homophobic person for believing in science and logic. BTW, I have never worked for a coal or oil company. But if I ever did why is science funded by people that want to find global warming (Government and UN) to justify taxes and regulation, less bias than science funded by coal or oil companies?
the science of the left is all peer reviewed
The science on the right and especially the “science” of the plurality of the right’s base is far inferior to the science on the left. It is not even a debatable discussion. Only 6% of scientists even CLAIM they are Republican. Why?
IDK. Maybe they feel embarrassed that their ancestors had dinosaurs as pets? Or maybe because they didn’t know that in legitimate rape the women can’t get pregnant? Maybe they didn’t hear yet that the fossil record was God’s way to trick us into thinking the world was more than 6000 years old. Or they never realized that massive pollution on a global scale could be so darn good for the environment. I don’t get it.
The science on the right and especially the “science” of the plurality of the right’s base is far inferior to the science on the left. It is not even a debatable discussion.
There you go again, you cannot settle a scientific question by making it a popularity contest. Your argument is just plain silly.
Then you throw in dinosaurs, rape, god and what’s good for the environment. Amazing
The global warming science has taken hit after hit after hit, things like the warming not happening for well over a decade, the Himalayan glacier prediction was bunk, altered and bunk data, climate gate, …
Definitive science or at least predictions of the models proving to be true needs to occur as opposed to attacking any science that doesn’t support your side.
Then you throw in dinosaurs, rape, god and what’s good for the environment. Amazing
What IS amazing is how damn dumb the plurality of America’s right-wing’s base IS on science. It’s an embarrassment to my country and I hear it from foreign tourists in Rio all the time. USA is becoming a joke on these issues. They laugh at the ignorance. Trust me.
I threw in dinosaurs, evolution, rape, God and environment because they touch upon issues that represent prime examples of Republican JUNK SCIENCE beliefs.
It is beyond moronic. It is ignorance so profound that it is dangerous.
What IS amazing is how damn dumb the plurality of America’s right-wing’s base IS on science.
Calling the right dumb doesn’t accomplish anything.
Why do you think the warming has stopped for so long in spite of the models predicting rapid warming?
‘I hear it from foreign tourists in Rio’
Well that’s conclusive evidence for sure.
‘USA is becoming a joke on these issues’
I spent a lot of time in Latin America growing up. If I spent some time with individuals, they would usually open up and tell me what they didn’t like about the US. It was stuff like lending the govts money then forcing things on them. Invading, CIA stuff.
So how do your tourists feel about what Obama did to the elected government in Honduras? Did you know the DEA is down there shooting unarmed women from helicopters? That’s your lovely ‘left’ in action.
Basically, I’m not buying your left\right love/hate view from down south. I know better. They don’t know left in right in the US. They just feel the constant pressure and oppression from our policies, including the current president.
‘It is ignorance so profound that it is dangerous’
Maybe you should write Obama and tell him to take them out with drones. He’s asserted that authority already, and maybe you can convince them about these ‘dangerous’ people who don’t agree with you.
I miss the days when people could think what they liked and others would defend their right to do so.
I spent a lot of time in Latin America growing up.
The American right-wing was not stupid on science when you were growing up so this would not have come up.
‘I hear it from foreign tourists in Rio’ Well that’s conclusive evidence for sure.
It is conclusive evidence that I do hear it.
Did you know the DEA is down there shooting unarmed women from helicopters?
No. That sucks.
Basically, I’m not buying your left\right love/hate view from down south. I know better.
You obviously do not know better and you sure don’t know about Brazil or the makeup of the ZonaSul tourists. I’m in contact with educated foreigners and Brazilians on a regular basis. The one’s who know anything about the American political system side’s beliefs (and there are many) think the right’s science and religion injected into politics is a complete joke and dangerous. (War’s anyone?)
Maybe you should write Obama and tell him to take them out with drones.
Like the Republicans would have less? Sure they would.
maybe you can convince them about these ‘dangerous’ people who don’t agree with you
The right-wing’s “junk science” and their over injecting their religion into politics IS dangerous. (Religious Wars and End of Days anyone?)
Calling the right dumb doesn’t accomplish anything.
Sometimes a mirror accomplishes something. The right-wing has become dumb on many issues of science the past 30 years. It will do them no favors going forward IMO.
They (Brazilians and tourists) don’t know left in right in the US.
Many of the educated Brazilians and tourists know the basic differences of Dems/Repubs. Unlike Brazil and Europe, (which have many political parties) USA is very easy to characterize politically. We only have 2 parties that are more polarized than at any time in our lives. It’s easy for the media in Brazil, Asia and Europe to make gross generalities.
Many Brazilians and tourists know American left/right stereotypes and they follow American PRESIDENTIAL elections closer than Americans think. And many think the right’s “science” and religion are a bit weird.
“Thinking what you like” and presenting opinion as science are antithetical. (I’m pretty sure that was Rio’s point.)
When you were growing up, science was still ascendant in the USA, and not considered the province of “leftists” by partisan interests who manipulated established scientific facts into religious and political issues.
‘Like the Republicans would have less’
Nice deflection. Where is your high horse on Obama executing US citizens, like the 17 YO in Yemen who hadn’t done anything? How does ‘junk science’ compare to killing citizens without even charging them with a crime? Or installing a military junta in central America?
You basically want to shut people up. I’ll move on and let you argue with like minded posters.
‘Like the Republicans would have less’…killing citizens without even charging them…
Nice deflection.
It’s not a deflection. It is a valid comparison in the context of an election where we have only 2 realistic choices. What is the point in bashing one of only 2 candidates on an issue without considering the other candidate’s party’s position or history? There is no point.
Voting for a Republican because a Democrat had set up a military junta in central America would fly in the face of the history of the numerous military juntas that the Republicans have set up in Latin America.
You basically want to shut people up.
No. I’m looking for a logical debate on facts and issues. I rarely find it from the far-right. If I “shut them up”, so be it.
I blame the progressives, they have a history of anti-Americanism, anti-humanism, subversion and lies.
I blame the progressives, they have a history of anti-Americanism, anti-humanism, subversion and lies.
lol…..Yea right….. Listen up to some history. The progressives founded America, they ended slavery, the progressives fought for the women’s right to vote, civil rights and the middle-class.
Dude….you sound so ignorant of the country you call yours.
“Dude….you sound so ignorant of the country you call yours.”
Calling me names will not help you counter the facts stated in my previous post.
“…they have a history of anti-Americanism, anti-humanism, subversion and lies….”
Coming from an immigrant, that takes some serious nerve. Rio is right. You truly ARE ignorant of the history of the country you call “yours” — as well as its founding precepts, apparently. Shame on you.
Calling me names will not help you counter the facts stated in my previous post.
There were no “facts” in your post. Yours was ignorant opinion imo.
And I did not call you names. I said you sounded ignorant of your country’s history. That is the only fact in our last 2 posts to each other.
“Shame on you.”
No, shame on the progressives. The political equivalent of cancer.
I know, maybe you can cool down the atmosphere by forcing evil capitalist city dwellers into urban communes and banning private property - Pol Pot style.
Rural communes that is.
“As far as your proposal just try raising taxes on the rich that much and they will move to Asia.”
Which is why the return to an economically sound tax code needs to be done in conjunction with a tax on money leaving the country.
It doesn’t matter where you live, if you have to pay the tax when you try to take your profits/revenues out of the USA.
A lot of the money they are making in U.S. could be made outside the country. Most of the functions of wall street really can be done in London or Dubai in which case we get 0 dollars in taxes if they move. They already are manufacturing most everything outside the U.S. and they could move the rest outside to avoid anyU.S. tax liability. The law of unintended consequences is ready to bite you in the Azz on the this one.
The states that have tried this have not fared well. Texas just received a four billion dollar investment by Samsung because of its pro-business and low tax policies. California is broke. When Reagan cut taxes we became a low tax magnet, now we are really a high tax country despite the Bush cuts. I do think there is a problem that a civilized society needs a certain level of revenue and no matter how much additional production lower taxes cause if the tax rate is a zero no revenue is produced. Thus, this race to the lower tax rates has a limit but that said we need to be somewhat competitive with the rest of the world on taxes.
One of the reasons that Ireland seems to be doing better than a Spain or a Greece despite massive debt causing austerity is because it has a lower tax rate which does annoy the rest of Europe. From Wikipedia:
Over the past decade, Ireland’s corporate taxation system has been a source of controversy with some of Ireland’s fellow-member states in the European Union. The French government has over the past decade, most particularly during the premiership of Lionel Jospin, consistently condemned and criticised the Irish corporation tax system. This criticism is based on the belief that the low corporation tax rates enabled Ireland to compete unfairly in attracting international investment. However, despite the French critique of the Irish corporate tax system, the Irish example has won many followers, with many ‘emerging’ and Eastern European economies following the Irish example.
Sounds like you’re saying “civilized society” may not be competitive with less civilized society…at least until things are so uncivilized you can no longer produce efficiently?
We could stop wasting so much energy.
Carl, that is the problem. Especially is a problem, if we absorb the costs of things like education and basic research for the world and developing nations do the production.
Ireland seems to be doing better than a Spain or a Greece….because it has a lower tax rate which does annoy the rest of Europe.
It doesn’t annoy Germany, Norway Sweden, Denmark, Holland, etc. who all have higher taxes and better economies than Ireland now. Low corporate taxes do not mean prosperity for the populations.
June-July 1012 Unemployment rate: (Eurostat, tradingeconomics dot com)
Ireland 14.8%
France 10.1%
Holland 6.5
Sweden 7.5
Denmark 4.5 (May)
Norway 3.0
Germany 6.8%
“A lot of the money they are making in U.S. could be made outside the country.”
Good. Because the idea of generating revenue from American’s, then using it to pay a work force in Asia, is unsustainable as continuing to generate that revenue in America requires American’s go ever deeper into debt.
Let them generate revenue in Asia and use it to pay people in Asia. Keep the revenue generated in the USA, in the USA. And use a hefty tax to ensure the revenue doe not just up in the hands of an ever smaller number of people.
Keep the existing money in the country, and keep it moving, so that we do not need to constantly borrow more money into existence to keep the economy functioning.
This really isn’t that hard to understand. Yes, it would be WONDERFUL if the economy could have massive trade deficits that make some people ever richer, and for that economy to function without unsustainable debt growth…. It would be WONDERFUL if EVERYONE could spend less than they earn, accumulating money….
It would be just as WONDERFUL, and every bit as impossible, to invent a candy crapping unicorn that kept the entire global population well nourished on rainbows, butterflies and magic glitter.
Just happen to leave out Spain and Greece? I was talking about countries that were forced into austerity. Ireland had a banking collapse.
Prosperity is in building houses that can’t be paid for.
He didn’t leave it out, just rendered it complete and utterly moot.
He just proved that other European countries with higher corporate taxes are doing better than Ireland, thus proving your conclusion false and your argument lost.
Logic is not your strong suit, is it?
Rio this may help: Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Economy, Society KeeptalkingGreece is the website.
Greek’s never ending Calvary: Unemployment. Every month, a new record. Unemployment reached 22.5% in April – in comparison 21.9% a month earlier and 16.2% a year earlier. According to Eurostat, Greece has the second-highest unemployment rate within the European Union, after Spain that sadly leads with 24.8% (June data).
All three countries have imposed austerity although I think Ireland has tried to protect its low tax status more. At least its corporate rate. Perhaps in the case of Greece and Spain the austerity has not resulted in more tax revenue since raising rates can actually result in less economic activity and less taxes. Since that was my original point thanks for starting this part of the thread.
Looks like Ireland is at least growing unlike many other countries in the Euro zone
From http://WWW.Merrion-capital.com
July 4, 2012
Recessionary conditions are deepening throughout Euroland, and worsening banking sector problems in a number of ‘peripheral’ nations are exacerbating the economic slump and undercutting confidence. Deteriorating conditions in the Eurozone will have an even greater impact on trade and credit flows both at home and abroad, reverberations that are contributing to a further moderation in world output.
The global economic backdrop remains very challenging for the Irish economy, with key export markets in the Eurozone and UK especially weak. As a result, Ireland’s economic recovery is likely to remain quite subdued, with real GDP growth of less than 1.0% on the card this year. We are forecasting a rise in GDP of 0.5%. Still, a positive out-turn for the second year running in 2012 would be a healthy development especially as many Euroland countries should see a contraction in national output and the Eurozone as a whole is set to record a fall in GDP.
The export sector will be the key driver of Ireland’s economic recovery in the short-term at least and the performance over the past year or so has been relatively strong all things considered. Despite the slowdown in the global economy, it is clear that Ireland has a very healthy and dynamic export model, helped by its focus on recession proof goods. Overall, Ireland is in our view in a much better position than other Eurozone ‘peripheral’ debt countries to move forward once world growth picks up again.
Turkey can you read that? Compare that with Spain and Greece? Lets just try to compare apples with apples. The low taxes did not cause the Irish banks to fail but they are allowing it recover and it does not have the twenty five percent unemployment of Spain and Greece. BTW, on the LSAT I was in the 99% range on logic to answer your question.
Ireland is at least growing
“Growing” does not necessarily measure a country’s prosperity anymore. Ireland “growing” with 15% unemployment tells you something about “growing”.
USA’s GDP is “growing” too but most Americans are not sharing in the “growing” as we used to.
The only things growing in the USA are the GDP, debt and Rich American’s balance sheet.
This is what happens with gross wealth and income inequality. And cutting the taxes on the rich for 30 years have made things worse.
15% UE is something to admire?
You have got to be kidding.
Rio this may help….Since that was my original point thanks for starting this part of the thread.
No. Your point was not simply comparing Greece/Spain’s taxes/economies with Ireland’s. Your original point mentioned France and “the rest of Europe” and the implication was that lower corporate taxes make for better economies which I disproved.
June-July 1012 Unemployment rates:
Ireland 14.8% (With all their “low corporate taxes)
France 10.1%
Holland 6.5
Sweden 7.5
Denmark 4.5 (May)
Norway 3.0
Germany 6.8% sources: eurostat, tradingeconomics dot com
just try raising taxes on the rich that much and they will move to Asia.
Move to Asia? I don’t think so at all. A few yea, but a lot? No. First of all, that could be cracked down upon as easily as raising the rich’s taxes.
Besides, do you know what it is like to move to a foreign country? Most don’t have it in them no matter their wealth. The FB guy who left America was a Brazilian way before he was a Gringo.
I know but he still left and many others have renounced citizenship to avoid taxes. You do not have to lose many billionaires to lose a lot of taxes even if they are just paying 15% of their income in taxes to due to capital gains policy.
People might thump their chests when threatening to leave, but the bottom line is that anywhere else you are a foreigner (even if you buy citizenship).
When the global meltdown happens you’re gonna wanna be in the USA, with it’s might military machine protecting you.
When the global meltdown happens you’re gonna wanna be in the USA, with it’s might military machine protecting you.
As long as the perimeter includes you, anyway.
So? This juvenile and stupid argument about leaving if the taxes are to high assumes no one else can make a lot of money and employ people.
There are 10’s of THOUSANDS of people who WISH they had that kind of income and would gladly and WILLINGLY pay those kind of taxes.
So hit the trail. We dare you. 99% of this country isn’t going to miss you and WILL get along just fine, thrive even! without you. because you ARE just as replaceable as the poorer people you despise.
I know but he still left and many others have renounced citizenship to avoid taxes.
Good frikkin’ riddance! Let them crash the economies of their new sucker/countries.
If we had started phasing down our use of petro-fuels when Carter tried to mandate that we do so, we’d be using non-carbon based energy sources already, and our oil wars, economic imbalances, climate/pollution issues, and flagrant waste of natural resources would largely be behind us.
But no, he was the “worst President ever” according to the oiligarchy and its sheeple.
If it was possible why didn’t the socialistic countries develop solar and leave U.S. in the dust? They still can’t produce energy from solar at competive prices. See Spain, although they recently changed to a conservative government due to the collapse in their economy, BTW, I think Obama now deserves the title so Carter falls to number 2.
You still aren’t paying attention.
They have. Did. Done.
Next the thing you will be saying is why didn’t they develop high speed trains if it was such a good idea.
Oh wait… they did. Where’s ours?
If the prices are competitive why are they cutting back on solar when they are only up to 3 to 4% of their total yearly electric generation is solar energy, in Germany? Why does Spain have 25% unemployment and plummenting green jobs. Ireland at 15% and a growing economy is much better off.
Where DO you get your lies?
why didn’t the socialistic countries develop solar and leave U.S. in the dust?
Not much solar but Brazil’s “socialist” 30 year program enabled them to become energy independent unlike USA’s “free-market” 30 year energy FAILURE.
USA could have done it too with a “socialist” 30 year program and the USA would have been a much greater and stronger nation for it, but investing in one’s country to be great is now called “socialist”.
Brazil found 2 more offshore oilfields the past month. Go figure.
What lie Turkey? Check wikipedia for the solar numbers, check the Internet for the unemployment numbers in Spain and Ireland. Your Saul Alinsky tactics do not work with me. He was one of the most vile humans ever to walk the earth. He admired the tactics of the mafia. He may be Obama’s hero but he does not impress me.
“Your Saul Alinsky tactics do not work with me. He was one of the most vile humans ever to walk the earth. He admired the tactics of the mafia.
Who is Saul Alinsky? Which mafia tactics did he admire? I don’t have to admire the character of Dennis Rodman to recognize that he made a place for himself by specializing. I might even recommend that tactic.
He may be Obama’s hero but he does not impress me.”
Really? How do you know this?
“But no, he was the “worst President ever” according to the oiligarchy and its sheeple.”
He WAS the worst President ever, now we have a new front runner.
Speaking of those two guys, the middle east would have been much better off without the Carter and Obama Administrations, mostly due to both of them facilitating the spread of radical Islam.
(Carter) WAS the worst President ever, now we have a new front runner.
Worst?? Are you from Albania or something? Not America right? …..Man…….Gosh……..How old are you? 15? Carter is considered in the middle of the pack now. And he is rated better and better as time goes along. Check wiki. Check …….awe man forget it….you are lost in right-wing, modern day propaganda………..you are sleepy…..you feel sleepy…..
you are lost dude
Again with the insults.
Etch-a-sketch
Aug. 22, 2012, 9:02 a.m. EDT
Romney adviser suggests Bernanke should stay
By Steve Goldstein
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Glenn Hubbard, an economics adviser to Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, said in an interview late Tuesday that the ex-Massachusetts governor would consider renominating Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke when his term expires in 2014. Romney has previously said he’d get rid of Bernanke. “Ben is a model technocrat. He gets paid nothing for getting kicked around all the time. I think they ought to pat him on the back,” Hubbard said in an interview with Reuters TV. Hubbard, the dean of the Columbia Business School, said he was opposed to the Fed launching a third round of bond buying.
To me it seems like Republicans just don’t want to win.
Seems that way to me too.
Backseat driving is so much less stressful.
Unless you’re the driver.
I’m starting to think this might be a 1980 type blowout….
WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who is out-fundraising President Barack Obama by impressive margins, is attracting thousands of donors this summer from traditionally Democratic areas of the United States, collecting millions of dollars in even progressive communities from New York to Los Angeles, according to an analysis by The Associated Press of new campaign data.
Donors from tony neighborhoods of Manhattan to even the famously liberal Castro neighborhood in San Francisco helped Romney and the GOP outraise Obama by more than $25 million in July, beating him and the Democratic Party in contributions for a third consecutive month, the AP analysis showed.
Romney collected at least $630,000 by mid-summer from New York City, the home to major Romney fundraiser and New York Jets owner Woody Johnson. More than $100,000 of that came from investment bankers, who have cooled to Obama since he supported tougher regulations for Wall Street following the financial meltdown and housing crisis in recent years.
More than 2,000 miles away on the West Coast, Romney collected at least $350,000 since June in the San Francisco Bay Area alone, with average contributions of $400 apiece. The Bay Area is also the home of Dick Boyce, a former partner of Romney’s at Bain Capital and a GOP super PAC donor who is active in fundraising for Romney this election.
In Denver, the home of the 2008 Democratic National Convention, Romney supporters this summer contributed more than $400,000 - enough to pay rent, utilities and staff for a campaign field office. And in Philadelphia, where Obama handily beat Sen. John McCain four years ago, Romney took in more than $250,000 since early June.
“I’m starting to think this might be a 1980 type blowout….”
The Iowa Electronic Market Presidential Election Futures suggest otherwise, Smitherin. Both the Vote Share Market prices and the Winner Takes All market prices show a widening price gap in Obama’s favor since the Ryan Veep candidacy announcement.
I don’t think Iowa market and Intrades are valid anymore. They give too much credence to the power of incumbency. My theory is we are entering in a long chain of one-term presidency. People will throw the bums out every election.
“They give too much credence to the power of incumbency.”
They give credence to whatever those buying the futures think will make them money, which is whatever factors the individual market participants believe will decide the election.
Your argument is that those IEM futures market participants are (irrationally) less informed than you are, because they (foolishly) are basing their trades on a factor that will not decide the election outcome.
By the way, how did you divine a preponderance of trades are based on giving too much credence to the power of incumbency? Or do you just not understand how markets work?
By the way, how did you divine a preponderance of trades are based on giving too much credence to the power of incumbency? Or do you just not understand how markets work?
You post a lot of markets, so you must know this undeniable truth. Everyone of the market is rigged including the election market.
Exactly. I am voting against every incumbent, regardless of affiliation. It’s the only thing I can think of, if done en mass, that could counteract special interest.
Actually, I’m not so sure Smithers isn’t right. A buddy of mine, who is on disability, food stamps and some other goodies, and who is an Amy Goodman-listening, anti-fundy confirmed progressive, confessed to me yesterday that he is seriously considering voting for Romney. He even went so far as to say that Akin made a gaffe and should be left alone (although he took it back when he listened to the Huckabee clip and Akin inserted his foot all the way down his throat).
Needless to say, I was in complete shock, as he and I have had many fierce political arguments over the years. And I can tell you that progs are just as blindly devoted to their media pundits and talking points as are Limbaugh and Glen Beck audiences.
What has been swinging him to the right are some of the very obvious atrocities Obama has brought about, such as giving himself the power of life or death over US citzens without due process of the law. And the recent administrative “amnesty” to the children of illegal immigrants.
And I can tell you that progs are just as blindly devoted to their media pundits and talking points as are Limbaugh and Glen Beck audiences.
That’s a blasphemy!
Palmetto:
I’m seeing/hearing the same type of anectodal stuff as well. I have a died in the wool Democrat friend who was drunk on Obama Kool-Aid in 2008. This year, no bumper stickers on the Subaru. No yard sign. No endless Facebook harassment from her about the awesomeness of Obama, all things she did in 2008. It’s almost as if she’s embarrassed by being an “Obama Girl” last time around. I can’t say for sure how she’ll vote. But the enthusiasm is definitely not there. I’m guessing she won’t vote at all.
My mother in law. Huge Obama supporter last time around. She got pissed with me when I pointed out to her his record on guns in the IL state legislature. This time, Romney all the way with her.
Another friend of mine who’s parents have been involved in Democrat politics all his life. His mom was an elected state rep for several years as well, as a Democrat. His dad was (before retiring) a union honcho. In 2008 drunk on Obama Kool Aid. In 2012 - I almost fell off my chair when I heard this - he said looking back on it Bush wasn’t that bad compared to the situation we have now with Obama.
And this is why Obama will lose, and badly. Nobody who voted for McCain in 2008 will vote for Obama in 2012. Millions who voted for Obama in 2008 will either not vote or vote for Romney.
But how many true Romney enthusiasts do you hear from? I finally saw my *first* Romney bumper sticker recently on a coworker’s car. I mentioned to him that his was the first one I’d seen and he was a bit sheepish and mumbled something about his daughter putting it on there but he didn’t think it was such a good idea because it was a Mercedes and that just reinforced the stereotypes about Romney.
I have seen a few conservative Catholic friends on Facebook really get fully on board with Romney recently due to his VP pick, but that’s the only real enthusiasm I’ve seen. Plenty of bashing of both sides, though.
This orthodox Catholic isn’t thrilled with Ryan, who talks like a Fundy and not a Catholic.
Colorado are you an orthodox Catholic or just a Catholic that is just orthodox? Just curious, I am a Catholic myself but more cafeteria than orthodox.
If you do not understand the question:
orthodoxcatholicchurch.org
That said, while people aren’t energized by Romney, Obama’s lackluster performance could definitely put Mitt in the White House, unless of course the Romney campaign commits another gaffe.
Oh well, I guess I’ll just throw away my vote on Ron Paul.
My mother, the most liberal person I know, will not vote for Obama this term. Will she vote for Romney? Probably not. She’ll likely sit it out.
saw my *first* Romney bumper sticker
Dude, you’re in Boulder LOL. See them all over down here around JeffCo and Arapahoe County…
She could probably vote for Nader or whoever the Green Party candidate is.
Colorado are you an orthodox Catholic or just a Catholic that is just orthodox? Just curious, I am a Catholic myself but more cafeteria than orthodox.
orthodox with a lower case “o”. As in non-cafeteria. I figure, if you’re gonna be cafeteria, then you might as well switch to the Episcopal church.
I used the term “orthodox” as opposed to “conservative” as most “conservative” Catholics actually hold some Protestant Fundy beliefs, which makes them heterodox.
orthodoxcatholicchurch.org
Those guys sound more “Orthodox” (with an uppercase “O”) than Catholic. Actually, they come across as a group that broke away from the Orthodox church.
Nobody who voted for McCain in 2008 will vote for Obama in 2012. Millions who voted for Obama in 2008 will either not vote or vote for Romney.
And millions who voted for McCain either won’t vote or will vote 3rd party.
And as others have said, the polling will need to be done on a state level to be meaningful.
At this point, I think it could go either way. As for the “futures” predictions … we’ll see how that turns out.
Nothing sours young voters like tough economic times. Few jobs and high debt.
On the other hand, the current system - political and media - present only two choices. So to many, it’s going to be a question of which is the least bad: Rolls Royce or Stale Hope and Change.
“What has been swinging him to the right are some of the very obvious atrocities Obama has brought about, such as giving himself the power of life or death over US citzens without due process of the law. And the recent administrative “amnesty” to the children of illegal immigrants.”
And suspending habeas corpus so we can destroy Israel’s enemies?
Yep, Obama’s lead is widening. Oh wait…
In the most shocking survey this election cycle, a poll released today finds Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama by 14 percentage points among likely Florida voters.
Foster McCollum White & Associates, Baydoun Consulting and Douglas Fulmer & Associates, of Dearborn, Mich., questioned 1,503 likely Florida voters Friday and found Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, leading Obama 54%-40%. The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.53%.
These polls are meaningless. Polls in late October might give some clue, but this is too early for anything.
“These polls are meaningless. Polls in late October might give some clue, but this is too early for anything.”
Of course. When Romney is winning polls are meaningless. When Obama is winning polls are definitive. I forgot.
Agree. We haven’t even had debates yet…. Though I bet we can script them.
Romney: Take back the government from the socialists (meaning environmental and labor protections, catch up with China in the race to the bottom), repeal Obamacare, less government, meaningful entitlement reform while protecting today’s seniors(code for screwing those under 55), lower the rate and broaden the base (code for screwing the middle class)…
Obama: Lift up the middle-class (without any specific policies to do so), protect women and minority rights, rich pay fair share (meaning 18% effective rate for the top earners instead of 17%)…
Blah, blah, blah. More rearranging deck chair….
Meanwhile, $600B a year flows out of circulation via international trade imbalances, and another $700B flows into the bank accounts of those that already have more money than they spend, and we pretend that the economy is working, by adding $1.3T a year new debt/money.
Here is what I want to know. Which party is going to make fundamental fixes to the economy so that we’re not dependent on 10% of GDP new debt every year?
Are Reps or Dems going to end free trade?
Are Reps or Dems going to return to a 1950s style tax code?
Are Reps or Dems going to attack and reverse the trade imbalances that have forced us to live on unsustainable debt growth?????
This sucka is going down, and I really could not care less which do-nothing party is in charge when we go under.
“Are Reps or Dems going to end free trade? ”
Why in the world would any of them do something that idiotic?
’something that idiotic’
Yeah, sending factories to communist China, then having to borrow money from communist China because we’re broke is the two party enlightenment.
So Ben,
End free trade? Is that what you are saying?
Will there be teleprompters at the debates? Or at least ear pieces for the candidates?
This is the main determining factor in who I will vote for.
End free trade? Is that what you are saying?
“Free trade”? What free trade?
We buy everything the Chinese make, lowering or even removing tariffs. But if you want to sell them Buicks (which they seem to like), well pilgrim, you have to make them in China. Boeing’s been forced into a joint venture in China (otherwise they’ll buy Airbus jets). Yeah … free markets.
There is no free trade. We are the only chumps who provide full access to our markets. Everyone else jealously protects their markets and job bases.
“and broaden the base (code for screwing the middle class)…”
If you read the link I posted above, Romney has said that he doesn’t want to touch most of the MID, tax exemption for employer provided health insurance, and charitable deductions. I’m guessing he isn’t going to get rid of the exclusion/deduction for 401k and IRA savings. Yes, these programs mostly help the upper middle class and wealthy, but they impact the middle class too. We know he wants to lower overall rates and certainly isn’t going to up the rates on dividends and cap gains. Where is there a tax impact on the middle class? The new money (he says his tax plan will be revenue neutral) will have to come from the lower middle class and the poor. There isn’t any body else.
Romney has said that …
He says lots of things … then shakes the Etch-A-Sketch and later denies ever having said such things.
“…end free trade? Why in the world would any of them do something that idiotic?” Richard “Dick” U. Smithers, Walton family spokesman, 2012
Six Waltons Have More Wealth Than the Bottom 30 % of Americans (100 million Americans) Forbes 12/14/11
Different people will take this different ways, but Jeffrey Goldberg tells us that six members of the Walton family (the original owners of WalMart) have more wealth than the bottom 30 % of Americans.
Well they earned it didn’t they? After all, they DID choose the right parents.
The only “poll” that matters is the FiveThirtyEight forecast which has the Nov. 6 numbers at 295.1 electoral votes (Obama) to 242.9 electoral votes (Romney).
Because it agrees to your wishes?
Nope. Because it tracks the actual delegate counts and aggregates the polls as meta-analyses.
Interesting that porn goddess Jenna Jameson publicly supports Romney. But she is not doing so for his social conservative issues, of course. Naively she thinks he is a fiscal conservative and she is a smart businesseoman not ashamed to be wealthy. She’d be far better off supporting Ron Paul.
I’ll be writing in Jan Brewer, the only real man in the GOP.
And, when faced with massive trade deficits in AZ, what was Jan’s solution? Right, $1 billion in tax increases, because despite how often the Republicans lie to the contrary, we’re not on the downside of the laffer curve, and in fact, raising taxes increases revenues and lowering taxes reduces revenue.
Trade deficit in AZ? I didn’t realize states had trade deficits. Tell me more.
Meant budget deficits…. but, yes, we also have trade deficits. Just like the country as a whole, we import more than we export and are being kept alive via USA Government deficit spending (in the form of Luke Air Force Base).
Huh?
http://ld18democrats.org/2012/08/05/the-arizona-state-budget-balanced/
Darrel is lying again. Even his Democrat friends admit Arizona’s budget is balanced.
And now by law, Arizona must have a balanced budget. California will not ever have that law until it gets bailed out by the taxpayers at the federal level. Grasshoppers are fiddling.
LOL So true, so sad.
“Naively she thinks he is a fiscal conservative ”
Of course. Anyone who supports Romney is naive, or dumb or uninformed.
Curious to know. The 70% of high school dropouts who voted for Obama - per CNN exit poll in 2008 - were they informed?
Mr. Smithers, if you’re as conservative as you claim you wouldn’t support a Mass. liberal regardless of party affiliation.
Romney couldn’t buy my vote any more than Obama could.
He supports whoever the voices on the radio tell him to.
“WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who is out-fundraising President Barack Obama by impressive margins, is attracting thousands of donors this summer
…
Donors from tony neighborhoods of Manhattan to even the famously liberal Castro neighborhood in San Francisco helped Romney and the GOP outraise Obama
…
Romney collected at least $630,000 by mid-summer from New York City, the home to major Romney fundraiser and New York Jets owner Woody Johnson. More than $100,000 of that came from investment bankers,
…
More than 2,000 miles away on the West Coast, Romney collected at least $350,000 since June in the San Francisco Bay Area alone, with average contributions of $400 apiece.
…
In Denver, the home of the 2008 Democratic National Convention, Romney supporters this summer contributed more than $400,000 - enough to pay rent, utilities and staff for a campaign field office. And in Philadelphia, where Obama handily beat Sen. John McCain four years ago, Romney took in more than $250,000 since early June.”
MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY
As Meg Whitman learned the hard way in the last California governor’s election, it’s votes that win elections, not money. Apparently, all the 1% money in the world isn’t necessarily enough to buy an election.
He just raised $6 MILLION in one day in Texas this week.
For those of you keeping score at home, that’s 150, $40k a year jobs.
In. One. Day.
No wonder we can’t afford teachers.
Think or hope?
August 22, 2012, 9:49 A.M. ET
Existing Home Sales Data, Leaked Early, Show Slight Gains
By Avi Salzman
Existing home sales data was apparently leaked early — the National Association of Realtors tends to release the data at 10 a.m., but Bloomberg had it at 9:30. The NAR said that existing home sales rose 2.3% to 4.47 million units, which was below the expectations for 4.5 million from analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal.
…
Too weak to get Obama re-elected but too strong to allow housing prices to drop. That seems to be true of all the recent data. NBC/ WSJ poll being played up on the Internet shows Obama with a four point lead. Trouble is that is among registered voters not likely voters and does not allocate the undecided vote. Factor that in we are looking at a 53-47 Romney vote. I could see it being as tight as 51-49, if Obama can find enough money to run enough negative ads but that is looking increasingly unlikely.
The election truly starts in about a month when early voting begins not much time to turn this one around.
And what is the D/R/I breakdown in that poll? D+6. In 2008 at the height of Obama-mania the turnout was D+7.
For comparison here is the turnout for other recent elections
2010: 35/35 tie
2006: 38/36 Dem (also a huge year for Democrats)
2004: 37/37 tie
And yet NBC uses a model where Dems will have a 6% advantage on election day. If you believe that, then go ahead and believe this poll.
You do know that they adjust for that 6%, right? That they identify the 6% because they use that information to adjust the numbers.
His point is that he does not believe that the democrats have a 6% advantage in membership over the Republicans and after the last four years and the totals in 2010, I find that hard to believe too.
And when Romney wins….
What is he going to do?
I know Obama sucks. Tell me what Romney is going to do that will be better.
What is he going to do?
Hire more government contractors?
Tell us that deficits don’t matter after all?
Darrell,
1) Do whatever he can to stop Obamacare. If the Repubs get 51 votes in the Senate it makes it much easier.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/whos-sorry-about-the-roberts-ruling-now/article/2505530
2) Unleash the US economy by putting a leash on the EPA, allowing oil companies to start drilling, extracting and refining oil. If you look around the US, the areas where the economy is doing best are where the petroleum industry is working the most. I am in Hobbs, NM today and a large percentage of the hotels are full because of all the contractors working in the petroleum industry. Check out North Dakota and Pennsylvania areas as well.
3) Get the government off the backs of small business. Just try starting any kind of business these days. The regulations are massive and prohibitive.
4) Renew the Bush Tax Cuts. If these tax cuts are allowed to vanish, the extra tax burden will put the US into a recession. See CIBT’s post on the CBO estimates.
That should be a good start. Romney is going to get the US back on the right track by reducing the effects of an over-burdensome government. Hopefully he will find a way to cut back on the budgets of all governmental agencies.
Lip
They will need 60 votes in the Senate.
Congressional Republicans must not feel very confident about winning the presidency and keeping control of the House. If they did, they would join with Democrats to revise the filibuster rules.
Polly, I have heard that they only need 51 to repeal Obamacare. If we need 60 it’ll never happen and I know that there’s a chance that it can be repealed.
Avocado, Romney is not Bush. You might be right about Romney in that he might not be successful, because after all we would have to rely on the Republicans to actually do something (other than roll over or maybe bend over). But you are wrong about calling me a sheeple. If I vote for Romney at least I am voting for change. What do you propose? Follow Obama’s plan??? Oh, haven’t you gotten the message, HE HAS NO PLAN!
howiewowie, true that there are some states that don’t have much petrol to farm, but one in particular, CA, could unleash its economy, pay for it’s debt and put thousands of people back to work. Regulations under the Obama Administration have exploded. The bureacracy for Obamacare is still trying to figure out how they’re going to implement the act and our businesses have no idea what’s going to happen. How does a business plan for the future when they don’t know what the future holds? There is a lot of uncertainty out there. Bush tax cuts, if they go away the taxes go up and take the money away from the people and the businesses that would use that money to buy things, invest or hire employees.
Just like Bush did!! How did that work out?
Lip - you sheeple scare us.
He asked what Romney will do different.
1. Agree. Although he may not be able to do much without a supermajority in the Senate.
2. So oil drilling alone is supposed to unleash the economy? Where does that leave every state that isn’t Texas or the Dakotas. And you know the states have some control over this. You won’t ever see oil rigs anywhere near Florida waters.
3. Are the regulations all that different than from the Bush years? Don’t think so.
4. The Bush tax cuts have been in effect for nearly 10 years now…and we still had the Great Recession. No change there.
Bush tax cuts were the most irresponsible type. They didn’t do anything to address the tax code to balance the revenue decline and there was nothing in place to take care of them. Chickens of the Bush administration are coming home to roost, but there is NOTHING Obama and the do nothing congress has done to help. If anything, they’ve made things worse.
After 4 years of obama - I would be happy with:
Deficits UNDER $1 trillion per year
Getting the government out of the housing market or at least letting the market set the price
Getting rid of ALL the UNCONFIRMED “Czars”
A few good supreme court picks
I know Obama sucks. Tell me what Romney is going to do that will be better.
Deficits under $1T a year? So how are we going to replace the $1.3T a year that leaks out of circulation via international trade imbalances and the widening wealth disparity?
Government out of housing? So, Romney is going to shut down FHA and the GSE’s? Is that in his platform and his official speeches? Or are we just supposed to take it on faith that he will do that?
If you call Republican picks “good”… Well, we’re very far apart on this.
You still aren’t telling me what Romney is going to do. HOW is he going to get deficits under $1T a year? What is he going to cut (andd don’t say Obamacare because it has offsetting receipts so has basically no effect on deficits)? Or is he going to increase taxes?
HOW is he going to get government out of housing and let prices find their value? What is that? Another 30% drop nationally? What effect would that have on defaults, foreclosures, bank insolvancies? Another bailout, or resolution authority? Or just let the entire global banking system collapse?
What unconfirmed czars are we talking about, and what effect would that have?
What do you consider a “good” supreme court pick? One that will say that spending unlimited amounts of money is free speech, and corporations are people too, so can spend ANY amount of money bribing politicians and buying elections? Revoke Roe v. Wade? Church back in school and government?
Not BS generalities…. Seriously, what specifically is Romney going to do?
“Not BS generalities…. Seriously, what specifically is Romney going to do?”
Invade and occupy Iran?
+1, you have questions that no neo-con can answer. They just want you to “believe.” (and ignore the 8 yrs of Bush and 5 of full GOP control)
All I know is the DEMS are good for the stock market and jobs. (says history)
“Deficits UNDER $1 trillion per year
Ryan’s plan is not deficit reduction. It simply reduces taxes (which mostly favor the upper income brackets) and reduces spending on social safety net programs. It is shifting moneyfrom the lower income brackets to the upper income brackets.
“Getting the government out of the housing market or at least letting the market set the price
Romney is going to do this? The latest I have heard is that he will keep the MID (see upthread). Will he get rid of Fanny and Freddy?
“Getting rid of ALL the UNCONFIRMED “Czars”
I have never understood the whole czars thing. Has Romney said he will get rid of them? Will we really be less fascist under Romney? The Patriot Act and No Child Left Behind were both passed under Republican administrations. Will Romney push to repeal them?
“A few good supreme court picks”
Like Scalia and Thomas? As Darrell said, Republican appointed justices are the ones who gave us Citizens United.
“and reduces spending on social safety net programs.”
Ryan’s plan doesn’t even do that for another 30 years. All those over 55 are protected, and then cuts phase in slowly over time, so real reduction of the “entitlements” as % of GDP do not start to decline until 2041 and won’t be back to todays level until 2055. Most of the reduction in his plan occurs as the Boomers finally die off in huge numbers between 2035 and 2055.
Ryan’s projections of entitlements returning to today’s level of GDP are based on GDP increasing at 4-5% for the 40 years between no and final Boomer die off. If we fail to hit the 4-5% GDP over the 40 years, then it will be MORE than 40 years before SS and MC are a smaller part of GDP than they are today, EVEN with his cuts.
How can this be? Even after Boomer die off entitlements will be a larger % of GDP then they are today?
Yeah… Today’s retires were born during the GD and WWII at a rate of 2.5 million a year. Today’s workers were born at an average rate of 4 million a year, and were augmented by 1 million legal immigrants and half a million illegal immigrants.
Ratio per year = 2.5/5.5 = 0.45.
So, you take the 20 years of retirement / 45 years of work = 0.44. Multiply this by the 0.45 and you get 0.2. That is, 5 working age for each retired.
According to the 2010 census, 40 million are over 65 and 196 million between 18 and 65, so pretty close to the .2.
When I go to retire, it won’t just be the 3.5 million average born in my GenX, it will be us 3.5 million plus 1 million a year legal immigrants and half a million illegals = 5. Supporting us will be GenY, born at 4 million a year, plus legal and illegal immigrants = 5.5.
The ratio will be 5/5.5 = 0.9 instead of the 0.45 we have now.
Even if we move retirement age 5 years so that it is 15/50(0.3) instead of 20/45 (0.44) we still do not overcome that difference between 0.45 pop ratio and the 0.9 pop ratio.
0.9*0.3 = .27
So. instead of 5 to 1 workers to retirees, we’re looking at more like 4 to 1. That is why, even if we retire 5 years later, and even if they cut our benefits another 20%, we still are not back to today’s level of GDP.
It is the math people.
Social Security has been in the sweet spot of Boomers augmented by massive numbers of immigrants working and a relatively tiny generation, augmented by few immigrants, retired. Very favorable worker to retiree ratio above 5 to 1.
Now, with the first of the boomers turning 65, we’re going to see that ratio collapse from 5 to 1, to only 3 to 1, and then only be back to 4 to 1, IF we move retirement age another 5 years even 40 years from now when almost all the Boomers are dead.
Population didn’t keep increasing 30% per generation as would have been needed to maintain the 5 to 1 ratio.
And, that is why Ryan’s plan needs GDP growth to be 2-3X inflation, and WHY it is not even a plan to reduce spending on social safety net programs.
At best you can say that Ryan’s plan is a plan to slow the rate of increase, 40 years from now, after the Boomers are dead.
Yeah, that justifies big tax increases for the rich now.
Have you heard?
I did hear but I’ve forgotten as I haven’t constantly been reminded here.
I know…. I’ve been slacking on the message….
Bird is the word?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v/QXLqMB6vBic
A closely-watched pot never boils.
Aug. 22, 2012, 11:22 a.m. EDT
CBO issues fresh ‘fiscal cliff’ warning
Economy will contract in 2013, agency says in budget update
By Robert Schroeder, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy will contract instead of expanding in 2013 if scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts go into effect in January, the Congressional Budget Office warned on Wednesday.
In a fresh warning about the so-called “fiscal cliff,” the nonpartisan CBO reiterated that the U.S. economy will go into a recession next year if the Bush-era tax cuts expire and automatic spending cuts take effect. Read the CBO report.
In its latest report, the CBO predicts that the U.S. economy will grow at a 2.1% clip in 2012, but fall by 0.5% between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the fourth quarter of 2013 under the fiscal cliff scenario.
Previously, the CBO said growth would be 0.5% in 2013 under the fiscal cliff. In its new report it said the “underlying strength” of the economy is weaker.
…
This is another reason not to expect Romney/Ryan to cut the deficit. Any deficit cutting won’t happen in a Romney/Ryan administration, but will be pushed out at least 8 years. Kick the can is good politics.
Worked for obama for 4 years. But will Romney/Ryan just blame obama for the next 4 years…?
:-/
This is another reason not to expect Romney/Ryan to cut the deficit. Any deficit cutting won’t happen in a Romney/Ryan administration, but will be pushed out at least 8 years. Kick the can is good politics.
“But will Romney/Ryan just blame obama for the next 4 years…?”
I expect they will if they win. It could also be interesting to watch the Democrats switch to be the party of NO.
This article doesn’t mention the current U.S. birth rate, which is below the level reached at the trough of the Great Depression, lower than the birthrate in France, and under the replacement rate.
The Atlantic Home
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Bye-Bye, Boomers: This Is the Age of the Baby Bust-ers
By Derek Thompson
Aug 22 2012, 11:41 AM ET
One way to think about the Great Recession is like a great pause button.
In normal times, millions of people get married in their mid-to-late 20s. They spend lots of money on a wedding. They buy a car, often with a loan. They buy a house, always with a loan. They buy new furniture and appliances. With their time and money coupled, expenses that were once extraneous now feel reasonable. Maybe he was individually satisfied with sports bars and she with Netflix, but as a couple, it makes more sense to watch live sports and TV shows on their new couch, and so they buy cable. They have a kid, or more than a few. You know how the story goes.
DELAY, DELAY, DELAY
Before the Great Recession, young people were already saving many of these activities for later in their lives. The share of young adults (18-29) who were married fell from 59% to 20% between 1960 and 2010. These couples bought houses later, too. “A decline in the incidence of marriage mechanically lowers home ownership,” Martin Gervais and Jonas D.M. Fisher wrote in their paper “Why Has Home Ownership Fallen Among the Young?”
In the last few years, young people have even more reason to delay the costly trappings of adulthood. Pinned between rising student debt behind them and scant job opportunities before them, 34% moved back home for a period of time. With access to their parents’ garage, they needed (and could afford) fewer cars of their own. Young people now account for a smaller share of total auto purchases than they did just a few years ago.
It all leads to babies. Or, more specifically, not babies. In February this year, a Pew survey found that more than one-in-five young adults between 18 and 34 have delayed having a kid because of the economy — roughly the same proportion that postponed marriage. “Americans have had fewer babies each year since 2008, Bloomberg News reported yesterday. “Births [fell] to a 12-year low in 2011,” leading to the smallest population gain since World War II.
For a couple, pushing the pause button on weddings, houses, cars, and children is utterly sensible. (Look at the economy, after all.) But for the economy, itself, it’s disastrous. Household formation multiplies consumer spending. Cars and houses determine recoveries: These two industries accounted for 30% of the 1980s recovery and barely 10% of this one.
Babies aren’t often lumped into the same category as autos and homes, but as a driver of spending, they’re nearly as important. The annual cost of having a child in the northeast with a household income between $70,000 and $100,000 is about $17,000 a year, according to the U.S. government. That makes the typical child and the median monthly mortgage payments basically the same.
COME BACK, KIDS
If history serves as precedent, there’s reason to hope the babies will return with the economy. Via Bloomberg:
…
Back in the late 1950s, my mother had the audacity to only have one child. Oh, did she ever get an earful over that decision. Did she ever.
My father was an only child, born in the early 1920s.
I will tell you having a second child put us on the brink, and my promotion is the only thing holding us in place. My son started VPK this year, which is partially funded, so things are better.
Kids ain’t cheap.
My father’s father was an only child. His mother almost died while giving birth to him.
Thanks to the 5 recessions of the last 35 years, I couldn’t afford children either.
I watched my sibling go through economic hell to raise theirs and see their now adult children struggle in today’s economy.
I grew up poor and swore I would NEVER subject a child of mine to such conditions.
And so I didn’t.
We love posts like this. And look forward to the day when the Eddietard / Marie Antoinette types are hanging from lampposts
I sometimes wonder if the anti-abortion, anti-birth control push by the extreme right is a demographic war. If it was, I would think they would be better served to encourage it for everyone except those who share their views.
I had a long conversation with an anti-abortionist last fall. He accused those who support abortion of being racist and wanting to kill poor minority children. It was the first time I had heard that meme. He and his wife had to adopt because they were infertile. I think that is when his views changed from supporting abortion (to take it out of back alleys) to opposing it (so more children would be available for adoption?). He is over 65, and remembers the days before abortion was legal.
Personally, I think Roe v. Wade got it right. It is a good balance between the rights of the mother and the rights of the fetus, similar to the balance maintained by self defense laws between the rights of the attacker and defender. Pregnancy is not a trivial burden on the body. For some it is life threatening. For some it requires medical support to carry to term, including the potential for extended periods in the hospital. The government should not be making these medical decisions.
It is a good balance between the rights of the mother and the rights of the fetus
It permits the mother to have the fetus killed. How is that good balance?
Because there are some people who should not be mothers. And because society should not have to bear the consequences of unwanted children.
I have to agree with your assessment Charlie.
I think a better balance would be heartbeat of the fetus. This removes the ever moving, and difficult to judge “viability” test.
So, a woman has about 4 weeks from conception, 2 weeks from being “late” to figure out she is pregnant and get an abortion.
This keeps all abortive birth control (everything from the pill to IUD) completely legal, as well as morning after pills and such. If a woman can’t figure out she’s late and get the abortion within a couple weeks, well then, I guess she’ll have to resort to a back alley abortionist.
We know that 88% of births occur within the first 12 weeks (the official reporting cutoff) and it is estimated that more than half (maybe as high as 60%) occur within the first 8 weeks. So, with a looming deadline, I suspect that a significant portion of those 88% of abortions would still occur.
Make an exception for the “health of the mother” and “significant defect or malformation in the fetus or risk there of”, and I bet we’d still get a significant portion of the 12% of abortions that occur beyond the first trimester.
So, maybe we’d reduce the number of abortions by… I don’t know? 20%?
And the best part of the compromise is that we finally get to stop hearing the frequently incorrect “Abortion stops a beating heart” slogan. With over half of abortions occurring in the first 8 weeks, and the heartbeat not starting until 6.5-7 weeks, it is pretty safe to say that a significant portion of the abortions that occur today do not, in fact, stop a beating heart.
Of course, this compromise would make no one happy, which pretty much tells me that it is close to the best option.
“So, a woman has about 4 weeks from conception, 2 weeks from being “late” to figure out she is pregnant and get an abortion. “
Some women conceive while on the pill. They never miss a period.
Some women are very irregular and may not be aware that they are pregnant until after 8 weeks. This is especially true of early puberty and pre-menopause, both times where the mother is more at risk and where the risk of fetal anomalies is higher.
I knew a woman in college who had never had a period. I think she was told she was not fertile. That may or may not have been true.
“Make an exception for the “health of the mother” and “significant defect or malformation in the fetus or risk there of”, and I bet we’d still get a significant portion of the 12% of abortions that occur beyond the first trimester.”
Based on my conversation with an anti-abortionist, this is a loophole you can drive a truck through. Who is to say when the health of the mother is at risk? Does this include mental health?
Who determines significant risk of defect or malformation? Does this let alcoholics off the hook?
“So, with a looming deadline, I suspect that a significant portion of those 88% of abortions would still occur.”
Might it increase the number of abortions? If there is less time to decide, would it tip the balance in favor of maintaining the status quo (for the mother - no baby)?
OTOH, if money is an issue, it would allow less time to raise the money for an abortion.
Do anti-abortionists favor free pre-natal care for all fetuses? Would that include free food and pre-natal vitamins for their mothers? The one I talked with last year did not favor supporting other people’s children.
(I haven’t seen my other comments come through. It occurs to me I may be talking to myself.
)
“Some women conceive while on the pill. They never miss a period.”
Then they need to do the 3-week real pill, 1 week of sugar pill to keep track of the days pills where you do have a period every month.
And, what percentage of pregnancies is this anyway?
“Some women are very irregular and may not be aware that they are pregnant until after 8 weeks. This is especially true of early puberty and pre-menopause, both times where the mother is more at risk and where the risk of fetal anomalies is higher.”
Allowing us to drive that truck through the loophole of “risk to the health of the mother or development of the fetus”.
Again, what % of pregnancies is this? Again, since more than half of abortions occur within 8 weeks, and 88% occur within 12 weeks (when these “very irregular woman” would not have any outward signs of pregnancy) I have to assume we’re talking a fairly low %.
On one extreme, we have abortion on demand up to the point of viability. On the other extreme, we have people that would like to ban all abortions and some even want to ban abortive birth control like the pill, IUD, and morning after pill.
A compromise would be somewhere between these extremes. Not everyone in every circumstance that wants an abortion gets one. Not every pregnancy is carried to term.
The added advantage of the “beating heart” is that is also the criteria for death…. AND it eliminates the frequently incorrect slogan “an abortion stops a beating heart”.
It is fixed, testable, verifiable, AND, most importantly, makes no one happy. The only possible compromise is one that makes no one happy.
“Might it increase the number of abortions?”
Possible. Not a problem if the goal is a compromise between the current abortion on demand for all, and the other extreme of no abortions at all.
“if money is an issue, it would allow less time to raise the money for an abortion.”
An absolute must for this compromise is federal funding for abortions where the heartbeat has not yet started ….. in the ideal world, this would be standard coverage under a federal single-payer universal coverage plan.
“Do anti-abortionists favor free pre-natal care for all fetuses?”
Again, any compromise on abortion would have to include we continue things like food stamps and WIC for pregnant mothers, as well as AFDC for women that give birth to these otherwise unwanted babies.
If you want the women to be forced to have the babies, than we’re all going to pay for the raising of those babies. The flip side should be home visits and inspections to ensure the proper care is given to all these kids we’re paying for. The last thing we need or want is more kids growing uncared for and malnourished.
“Not a problem if the goal is a compromise between the current abortion on demand for all”
But we don’t have abortion on demand for all - only in the first trimester. You are simply advocating changing the timeframe of abortion on demand.
And who is it that wants compromise? Certainly not the rabidly anti-abortion folks who say no way, no how, at no time, under no circumstances. They will not stop until it is legally murder in all cases. Roe v. Wade is compromise - and a reasonable one.
The ultimate solution would be a technological one that takes an unwanted fetus and develops it to term either by implantation in another uterus or in an artificial uterus. Then a woman can give an embryo up for adoption at any point in a pregnancy and no woman’s health is at risk. How many orphanages will we need?
“Then they need to do the 3-week real pill, 1 week of sugar pill to keep track of the days pills where you do have a period every month.”
So they have a period in spite of being pregnant. It is usually smaller in volume, but not totally absent.
““significant defect or malformation in the fetus or risk there of””
There is significant risk of fetal alcohol syndrome with reasonable amounts of alcohol at critical points in a pregnancy. You don’t have to get plastered, be a binge drinker, or an alcoholic. A couple of drinks will do.
From the Mayo Clinic website: “There is no amount of alcohol that’s known to be safe to consume during pregnancy. If you drink during pregnancy, you place your baby at risk of fetal alcohol syndrome. ”
So all a woman would have to do to fit into this exception would be to have a drink.
“It permits the mother to have the fetus killed. How is that good balance?”
I already answered this. “Pregnancy is not a trivial burden on the body. For some it is life threatening. For some it requires medical support to carry to term, including the potential for extended periods in the hospital.”
Roe v. Wade say abortions allowed before viability. If we get to the point technologically where a 4 week old embryo can be raised in an incubator, then it will be time to revisit.
I also think there is a legal argument to be made for self defense in cases where the health of the mother is in jeopardy.
I do not think we should be too quick to dismiss the effects of reduced illegal immigration on the birth rate.
We know the number of births to illegals spiked from 2003-2008 as the housing bubble brought a massive wave of illegals into this country to work in the construction field.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2009054552_illegals15.html
“The number of U.S.-citizen children born to illegal immigrants has dramatically increased over the past five years from 2.7 million in 2003 to 4 million in 2008, according to a study released Tuesday.”
That is 6 years to gain 1.3 million children of illegals, or just over 200K a year right? Wrong. There were 100K a year 18 years ago, so the 200K a year increase in the number of children of illegals is the delta between the 300K being born over those years and the 100K becoming adults.
300K out of 4.2 million births is 7% of all births in 2008.
…..
I went off and did some research to see if I could figure out how many illegals have left, and the net effect of that on the number of births. All data seems to indicate that net illegal immigration has gone from around 750K a year in the housing boom, to a net 0 now. For the first time since the mid-1970s (bottom of the Baby Bust, when we turned a blind eye to illegal immigration as a tool to fight the bust) as many illegals left as came.
So, we’re not seeing a massive decline in the number of illegals in the country.
Number of births to illegals also seems to have increased from something that rounds to 7% of births (300K-ish/4200K) to 8% of births (300K-ish/4000K), or so says CDC. This is consistent with zero net immigration and no significant decline in the birth rate for illegals.
I will now dismiss my knee jerk reaction that the illegals leaving could account for a significant portion in the drop in births…. It is the non-illegals that are not having as many children.
We now return to the regularly scheduled housing and economic doom and gloom.
Dramatically lower housing prices is “economic doom and gloom”?
Be truthful is “economic gloom and doom”?
Why do you lie so Darryl?
He said,”housing and economic doom and gloom”. I interpret this as economic gloom and doom plus housing and not as housing gloom and doom and economic gloom and doom.
“Why do you lie so Darryl?”
Darrell is now a Realtor shill?
No, but he plays one on this blog.
On another note…
http://articles.latimes.com/2012/aug/15/world/la-fg-israel-sperm-20120816
Optimistic (bovine-brained) view: The Fed will invoke QE3 at their September meeting, making stocks, bonds and gold go up while the dollar drops. MOO-OO-OO…
Pessimistic (ursine-brained) view: The Fed must see something pretty dire on the economic horizon to undertake the political risk of invoking QE3 during election season, particularly when the Republican candidates have come out against it. GRR-RR-RR…
Dire on the horizon? We cannot continue to grow at 1.5-2% rate it means the national debt is growing far faster than the GDP. It also means many more municipal bankruptcies, see the Warren Buffett thread of yesterday.
Real (publicly held) is up from $5T 5 years ago, to $11.2T today. (Treasury direct using search date of Aug 1 2007 and Aug 1 2012.
That is an average deficit of $1.24T per year. Even using today’s real national debt of $11.2 as the denominator, that means that if we continue to increase the debt at the rate of the last 5 years, we’re increasing debt at 11% per year.
I do not think we can grow the economy at 11% per year, so hopes of growing our way out of our current debt are doomed.
Equally, all that $1.3T a year we are pumping into the economy is not overheating the economy, therefore, it must be draining out somewhere. If we just stop pumping in the debt without first addressing where the money goes, we’re doomed.
The problem, as I see it, is that the money is leaving the economy as fast as we are pumping it in. We must first address the drains of money from the economy (trade imbalances). Then we can stop pumping money into the economy. Then we can begin to sop up the excess liquidity (money) by ensuring the money reaches the people that have debt so that they can repay the debt and destroy the excess money by destroying the debt that created it.
Of course, the other option is for the money not to get to the people that owe the debt, then the debt will default and the money will just poof out of existence.
“We must first address the drains of money from the economy (trade imbalances).”
In your world, don’t we get back real goods and services for the money that leaves the U.S. for other countries?
Realist view: QE just takes debt off banks books, giving them more room under the reserve requirements. Banks are not up against their reserve requirements, so QE does not remove any bottle necks to lending. This eliminates the multiplier effect that usually comes from easing lending (seed is multiplied by the inverse of the reserve).
If reserve requirements was a bottle neck, and the average reserve was 3%, then $1B in QE would result in $33B new debt/money chasing assets. With reserve not being a bottleneck, then $1B in QE is only $1B in money chasing assets.
So, let’s say we do $300B in QE, and then the government turns around and sells another $300B in treasury bonds…. Net effect on the economy is only the $300B in government spending, that drains from the economy in about 3 months of international trade deficits and widening domestic wealth disparity.
Real effect of QE3? A few more months of extend and pretend.
Give me a billion-dollar institute and thirty years worth of funding, and I’ll hand you a sheaf of peer-reviewed studies that prove the earth’s climate is controlled by a giant blueberry muffin named Steve.
But take your brand of “science and logic” to JPL, and be prepared to be laughed off the stage. By actual climatologists and astrophysicists.
Reply to Dan and CT nested down here. Sorry.
There you go again, you are saying that the left’s science laughs at the right’s.
You will be vulnerable as long as you treat a complex scientific question as a popularity contest.
There is a very good question on the table, given that warming was absolutely predicted but hasn’t occurred for well over a decade what went wrong?
Don’t forget that those data that supported the theory sorta got altered and lost.
Don’t forget that the real scientists got busted “hiding the decline”
There are valid questions but your answers are along that line that we are so dumb compared to you that we would be laughed at.
That level of arrogance is offensive, think about it?
you are saying that the left’s science laughs at the right’s.
They do now. And foreigners laugh at us too. That is the level of damage the far right has done to their image on understanding science.
I don’t really argue or think too much on the climate change thing but seeing the right’s junk science on evolution, the age of the earth, legitimate rape pregnancies and more makes me much more believe the “left’s” science on the issue.
The right’s science on climate change is much more influenced by money and politics too.
The right’s science on climate change is much more influenced by money and politics too???
Dear Rio, to say that the right is much more influenced by money and politics is just not true. Get real.
_______________________________________
Professor Ian Plimer condemned the climate change lobby as “climate comrades” keeping the “gravy train” going.
In a controversial talk just days before the start of a climate summit attended by world leaders in Copenhagen, Prof Plimer said Governments were treating the public like “fools” and using climate change to increase taxes.
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/143573/
_____________________________________
Anyway if you Google this you can come up with any conclusion and to be honest I’m not sure which of the conclusions is correct. Is the climate getting warmer? Maybe. Is man causing it? Maybe somewhat.
I think about the effects of China and India going into an industrial period of growth and the fact that their populations are driving around more autos. But there is also the fact that volcanos are spewings tons of pollutants into the air every day.
http://volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/
So why should be strain to reduce our emissions, which are already pretty clean, so that China, India and the volcanos can wipe out any improvements that we might realize. It costs a ton of money to follow the mandates of the EPA and if we’re going to spend the money, lets make sure we do it right.
Just today there was a ruling that went against the EPA whose new regulations were going to force coal fired plants to shut down. Coal is dirtier than other forms of electrical generation, but our coal plants are a lot cleaner than those in other countries.
Just so you know, conservatives are not against clean air and clean water, we just want to make sure we’re doing something that is cost effective. Why spend billions to improve something that will not affect the total atmospheric content of those pollutants?
Rio, to say that the right is much more influenced by money and politics is just not true…..we just want to make sure we’re doing something that is cost effective.
For big business I’m sure.
I never said I was for “the taxes” on this issue and I am not looking at it in that light.
I’m looking at the science first and then who pays for it.
Charles, you may give good insulation but you clearly haven’t the slightest clue what actual science entails. There is no “left’s” science or “right’s” science, there is only the science.
take your brand of “science and logic” to JPL, and be prepared to be laughed off the stage. By actual climatologists and astrophysicists.
On climate change, the right would tend to distrust the opinions of JPL climatologists and astrophysicists.
Because to be a JPL climatologist or astrophysicist, you have to go to a snooty college where they fill your head with a bunch of intellectual, left-wing drivel like math.
“Because to be a JPL climatologist or astrophysicist, you have to go to a snooty college where they fill your head with a bunch of intellectual, left-wing drivel like math.”
…and evolution. Heck, you probably have to agree that the earth is more than 10,000 years old even.
Hey, if you do hang out at JPL, float this by your homies and let me know what they think:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia_hypothesis
Mugs: Anthropogenic thermonuclear explosions are cybernetic, too, but they’re hardly conducive to homeostasis. Let’s wait until we’ve proof life exists(ed) on Mars and then revisit the metaphor as theory?
That said, I personally tend toward Lovelock.
Oops. “don’t” tend towards….
Yea, that is what we do have. After a billion dollars of government funded research, we do not have anyone that can explain why for 15 years we have been on a downward sloping mesa of temperatures. James Lovelock has admitted that he was wrong about the extent of man made warming and many other scientists have joined him. Even the climategate e-mails admit it and their writers tried to silence anyone that pointed it out. That is a disgrace to science. The experts you support are no different than the housing experts in 2006.
Are you going to tell me that 2012 so far, is warmer globally than the average of 1998 and if not, how could we have added all the Co2 over the last 15 years to the atmosphere without warming the planet if Co2 was the primary driver of the climate?
BTW, it is cooler, scientific data not rhetoric.
Gravity has weighed heavily on the Global DOW since the U.S. market closed, suggesting international investors are more afraid about whatever the Fed saw that sent BB to the bullpen for his QE3 warmup, than the prospect for a near-term QE3 invocation to buoy markets.
If only Mr Market makes an Olympian effort, perhaps he can climb to a new all-time high, with a little bit of Fed-provided doping to stimulate the performance, of course.
When will stock markets set a new all-time high?
By Adam Shell, USA TODAY
Updated 21m ago
NEW YORK – When it comes to new highs on Wall Street, none garner the accolades, the bragging rights or the No. 1 billing in history books like a freshly minted all-time high for the stock market.
Like Olympic records, peak market performances — and the numeric price levels that define them — become the benchmark for excellence and the measuring stick by which all other stock market moves are compared.
Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt’s 9.63-second Olympic record in the 100-meter race is now a magical number in track-and-field, just as the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index’s October 2007 all-time high of 1565.15 is revered on Wall Street.
So too is Dow 14,164.53, the blue-chip barometer’s closing peak. A record is a record. Anything less simply doesn’t measure up. Making an intraday high for the year or new bull market high, as the market did briefly in Tuesday trading, just isn’t as sexy.
Indeed, Americans’ fascination with the best is a big reason why the U.S. stock market’s inability again on Wednesday to close at its highest level since the 2008-09 financial crisis — despite coming within a single point twice in the past four sessions — has a bittersweet feel to it. The S&P finished up 0.32 points to 1413.49.
While the S&P 500 is at levels not seen in more than four years and is up 109% since the bull run began in March 2009, its flirtation with a fresh milestone served as a grim reminder that it’s still trading below where it was back in early 2000 and is still almost 10% below its 2007 record high. The Dow is still almost 1,000 points shy of its record.
Investors’ lost decade
After more than a decade in the stock market and investors having nothing to show for it, Wall Street faces a tough sell even on days when there is a good story to tell.
“There is no real significance in the new (intraday) 2012 highs except as a marker of progress,” says John Manley, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management. “After 12 years of nothing good, the bull case needs to prove itself.”
And there’s no better way for stocks to show people they’re still a legitimate vehicle to build wealth than to keep climbing and make history.
That raises the question: Is a new all-time high finally on the horizon?
If so, how long will it take? And what will it take to get there?
Maybe next year, or later
Unfortunately, getting there by year’s end — while not impossible — is a low-probability event, say the dozen or so Wall Street pros interviewed by USA TODAY. They say next year or 2014 is more likely.
“I don’t think it happens this year,” says money manager Gary Kaltbaum of Kaltbaum Capital Management. “We can go higher but I don’t think we go a ton higher.”
…
“After more than a decade in the stock market and investors having nothing to show for it, Wall Street faces a tough sell even on days when there is a good story to tell.”
The lure of easy money will attract new suckers; always does.
Here’s some news to cheer markets: A worse-than-expected China PMI number translates into a better-than-expected chance for more stimulus sooner.
Latest News
10:32p HSBC China flash PMI falls to nine-month low
10:31p China factory gauge drops to 47.8 vs. 49.3: HSBC
Our little dictator Obama is going after Gallup polling, I guess he could not stand to be behind, so his DOJ is finding a reason to sue Gallup, reminds me about what happen to someone who was willing to tell the truth about our credit rating.
Check out Drudge for link
lol
How to Repeal Obamacare
Leader McConnell is undoubtedly thinking longer term. The path to repeal is straightforward and, while difficult, achievable:
•Keep up the pressure in 2011 and 2012: ◦maintain and strengthen Republican unity toward full repeal;
◦repeatedly attack the bill legislatively on all fronts, knowing that most votes will pass the House and fail in the Senate;
◦continue legal pressure through the courts; and
◦tee up repeal as a key partisan difference in the 2012 Presidential and Congressional elections;
•In 2012 win the White House, hold the House majority, and pick up a net 3 Republican Senate seats to retake the majority there; and
•In 2013, use reconciliation to repeal ObamaCare, requiring only a simple majority in the Senate.
http://keithhennessey.com/2011/02/02/how-to-repeal-obamacare/
So Polly, etal, you were right that they would need 60 votes in the Senate unless they can use reconciliation to repeal it. Since I am not a constitutional lawyer, I should have known you were right (kind of).
McConnell is undoubtedly thinking longer term. The path to repeal (Obamacare) is straightforward and, while difficult, achievable:
McConnell is a vengeful and vindictive empty suit.
Let’s think. Repeal Obamacare? Why? It was a federal version of a Republican plan first developed by the Heritage Foundation and then implemented at the state level by a the pretty good Republican governor Mitt Romney. And it is working in Mass.. The plan was then deemed constitutional by the SCOTUS.
So repeal it? Do the Republicans not love America? Americans? They will repeal a Republican born plan from the neediest Americans for what? Politics?
And repeal and replace with what? What? The Republicans are out of control up there.
They will replace it with nothing.
And determine the employer paid health insurance is income and taxable.
“McConnell is a vengeful and vindictive empty suit. ”
Rio, IMO he’s a typical politician, just like almost all of the others.
Mass is a state. Having the federal government mandate one size fits all will ruin the best healthcare system in the world. It will raise prices, cause a shortage in doctors and will allow a panel of unelected bureaucrats to judge who should get what healthcare.
Why would anyone want a government bureaucrat to tell their doctor how to treat them? We can fire our insurance companies but not so the Federal Government.
Rio, IMO he’s a typical politician, just like almost all of the others.
McConnell is not a typical AMERICAN politician. No House or Senate (especially Senate) “leader” such as he would make a new president’s failure the top priority of his political party. That was beyond the pale and damn sure un-American.
the federal government mandate one size fits all will ruin the best healthcare system in the world.
There is much wrong there. I’ll start with the easily disproved false premises of “one size fits all” (there will be exchange options) and “best healthcare in the world.” (US healthcare stats rank mediocre at best for a first world country) Canada has better stats at 60% the cost.
shortage in doctors
Then the crony-monopoly AMA better get moving.
Why would anyone want a
government bureaucratBlueCross beancounter to tell their doctor how to treat them?We can fire our insurance companies now because Obamacare will increase competition.
“Bank of America, in their infinate wisdom and preditory lending practices put us in a mortgage that was 86% of our income.”
Bank of America hosts South Florida homeowner event Friday and Saturday
by Kim Miller
Bank of America is hosting a homeowner assistance event Friday and Saturday that will give borrowers a chance to meet face-to-face with lender representatives and discuss foreclosure alternatives.
The free event runs between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. each day at the Hilton Miami Downtown, 1601 Biscayne Blvd. Complimentary parking will be provided.
Bank of America said it is contacting 12,000 customers within 100 miles of Miami to make them aware of the event, which will include non-profit financial counselors available to speak with homeowners.
The event is for Bank of America customers only. To register and learn what documents are needed, go to http://www.bankofamerica.com/homeownerevent or call 855-201-7426.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 21st, 2012 at 11:34 am and is filed under Florida economy, Foreclosures, Housing affordability, Mortgages, Real estate bust. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
3 Responses to “Bank of America hosts South Florida homeowner event Friday and Saturday”
1
LOGIC Says:
August 21st, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Shouldn’t I just be able to CALL Bank of America for assistance?
2
disgruntled bofa customer Says:
August 21st, 2012 at 1:21 pm
I have been communicating with Bank of America since I lost my job in January, 2011, and actually got off the phone with my rep about 20 minutes ago. He once again informed me, just like he always does, that my file is in underwriting and they are reviewing it. Funny how he failed to mention this event.
3
Disgusted with BofA Says:
August 21st, 2012 at 1:51 pm
Bank of America, in their infinate wisdom and preditory lending practices put us in a mortgage that was 86% of our income. After 5 years of selling off everything of value in order to maintain that house, we had nothing left to sell. Last year, we filed chapter 7 bankrupsy and surrendered the house because they refused to help. They did give us a “modification” which actually was a second (15year) mortgage through one of their subsidiaries. Just before we had to fold up, they granted a modification which was just under $100. (the mort. was $1800 per month)
Had they stated in the very begining that we could not afford to buy that house, we could have backed out of the purchase contract. We were locked into a high down payment which fell through when the purchaser of our previous house “changed his mind” and backed out of that sale just before the closing.
Because of Bank of America, we lost everything and are now renting a small home and driving a clunker of a car.
6
New Homeowner Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 4:31 pm
“I am buying a foreclosed home and it was appraised for more than what I am paying!! So I am walking into my home w/ equity already!!”
My bet is “New Homeowner” will be jobless, toeless and applying for SNARP within 14 months.
Palm Beach County home sales and prices up in July
by Kim Miller
Sales of single-family existing homes increased 21 percent last month in Palm Beach County compared to the same time in 2011 while median prices shot up 15 percent on the same annual measure.
The $217,500 median sales price in July was down 15 percent from the previous month, according to a report released this morning by the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches.
Inventory continued to drop countywide, with less than five months of supply compared to 11 months last year. A six-month supply of homes is considered a normal inventory.
“Overall, the housing market in Palm Beach County is improving on all fronts…prices are up, more homes are selling and foreclosures are down,” said Bonnie Lazar, president of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches.
Statewide, sales of single-family homes were up 10 percent in July over from last year. The medial sales price statewide of $148,000 is an 8 percent increase over July 2011.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 22nd, 2012 at 9:22 am and is filed under Florida economy, Foreclosures, Housing boom. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
6 Responses to “Palm Beach County home sales and prices up in July”
1
Bret Weir Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 9:56 am
Does the Post make the Realtors Association pay for these advertisements? There’s more fudge in their numbers than a candy shop!
2
Jacqueline Eve Morris Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 10:09 am
My husband and I ( REALTORS) have been selling real estate in Wellington for the past 15 years. We personally contracted 3 homes two weeks ago , secured a foreclosure purchase for our buyer last week and have an offer on one of our highest price per sq ft listings this week. It’s certainly picking up in Wellington, Fl. Appraisals are TOUGH of course with new bank regulations but understandable. I’m hopeful it stays REASONABLE so all may have equal opportunities to own a home and their investment is safe.
3
Fudgie the Whale Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 10:10 am
More smoke and mirrors, just what we need.
4
howie Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Good news till the next batch of foreclosures hits the market.
5
Garcias Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Me and wife have been looking for 6 months, for a home, and it is very obvious, that the sale of homes have gone up. Homes that are move in ready are contracted within a day or two. But, what we are fighting with, are the investors or cash buyers, its sad to see many homes snatched by investors whom never will never live in the properties, except just flip the homes for profiteering..
6
New Homeowner Says:
August 22nd, 2012 at 4:31 pm
I am buying a foreclosed home and it was appraised for more than what I am paying!! So I am walking into my home w/ equity already!!
“..explain why for 15 years we have been on a downward sloping mesa of temperatures…”
Because we haven’t. Climate change is a diverse syndrome of oceanographic and atmospheric fluctuations; some warming, some cooling, all interrelated and on an overall upward trend.
Your apparent source, the widely discredited “creation scientist” Roy Spencer’s (et al) work was based on erroneous satellite readings that have been universally disavowed since they were discovered in the late 1990’s. Since then Spencer (who bills himself as “the official climatologist of the Rush Limbaugh Show”) has been furiously back-pedaling and pandering to paid partisan interests. (Spencer’s own later work, btw, corroborates an overall warming trend in the troposphere.)
Here he is fessing up to screwing up the most critical observations of his career.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLnJttkhDTM&feature=player_embedded
For the “scientific” record, Spencer is an advisor to and serves on the board of the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation and is a signatory to Cornwall’s “An Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming” which states:
“We believe Earth and its ecosystems — created by God’s intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence — are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting, admirably suited for human flourishing, and displaying His glory. Earth’s climate system is no exception.”
So now you want to talk about religion?
Is it easier to think:
1) That God created this world or
2) To think that a huge mass of density exploded into a million pieces, then came together, then got zapped by a bolt of lightning, which created the spark of life.
Question: What caused #2 to happen if that’s what you choose?
You see, you have to believe one or the other. To think that your choice is the only choice possible isn’t rational because you don’t have any more proof that I do. If so, what is your proof?
As for me, I choose to believe that God caused all of the stuff in #2.
Is it easier to think:
1) That God created this world or
2) To think that a huge mass of density exploded into a million pieces, then came together, then got zapped by a bolt of lightning, which created the spark of life.
Both.
God created a world of science where a huge mass of density exploded into a million pieces, then came together, then got zapped by a bolt of lightning, which created the spark of life.
What’s not to like?
No. I don’t want to talk about “religion”. That was my whole point. And no, I DON’T have to “choose one or the other.” Your two stated options demonstrate both a lack of intellectual courage and a lack of imagination– which is precisely what empiricism attempts to address.
“2) To think that a huge mass of density exploded into a million pieces, then came together, then got zapped by a bolt of lightning, which created the spark of life.
Question: What caused #2 to happen if that’s what you choose?”
STRAWMAN RELIGIONIST TROLL ALERT!
Interesting times in Washington State
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/08/16/libertarians-sue-to-have-romney-kicked-off-washington-ballot
Interesting…maybe the Iowa Electronic Market players don’t know how to gamble profitably?
Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012
Posted: 08/22/2012 5:09 pm
Updated: 08/22/2012 8:53 pm
Two University of Colorado professors, one from Boulder and one from Denver, have put together an Electoral College forecast model to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election and the result is bad news for Barack Obama. The model points to a Mitt Romney victory in 2012.
Ken Bickers from CU-Boulder and Michael Berry from CU-Denver, the two political science professors who devised the prediction model, say that it has correctly forecast every winner of the electoral race since 1980.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” Bickers said in a press statement.
…
Republican science…meh.
August 22, 2012 9:59 PM
Obama: Akin “somehow missed science class”
President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign stop, Wednesday, Aug. 22, 2012, in North Las Vegas, Nev. (AP Photo)
(CBS/AP) — President Obama weighed in on Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin’s controversial comments about “legitimate rape” Wednesday, mocking Akin by saying he “somehow missed science class.”
“The interesting thing here is that this is an individual who sits on the House Committee on Science and Technology but somehow missed science class,” Mr. Obama said at a fundraiser in New York City Wednesday night. “But it’s representative of a desire to go backwards instead of forwards. And fights that we thought were settled twenty, thirty years ago.”
…
“But it’s representative of a desire to go backwards instead of forwards. And fights that we thought were settled twenty, thirty years ago.”
Only 20-30 years ago? Maybe until you mention the Civil War.
Fair disclaimer: I disagree with this article by approximately 100%. The subprime mortgages were already loaned out by the time Obama took office, leaving him with no easy way out. And the notion of “fixing” the economy by reflating the housing bubble is just plain stupid.
The time to fix the problem was before it started, long before Obama got into the WH.
The mistake this writer and many a policy wonk makes is to assume there is always an easy way out of every crisis.
There isn’t.
The best case against the Obama administration
Posted by Ezra Klein on August 20, 2012 at 11:51 am
The strongest case against the Obama administration’s economic policy goes something like this:
Early on, the Obama administration misunderstood the unusual nature of the crisis. You can see it in its forecasts, which predicted a rapid, “V”-shaped recovery even if Congress didn’t pass a stimulus bill. And you can see it in the administration’s policies, which focused on supporting the financial system while it kickstarted growth by putting people back to work, handing out tax cuts and stopping state and local governments from laying people off.
The precise nature of the administration’s misunderstanding was that the key problem was household debt, and until that problem was solved the economy couldn’t recover. But while it had a clear strategy for attacking bad debt in the banking system, and a clear strategy for attacking the fall in consumer spending, it never had a clear strategy for reducing housing debt.
Instead, the administration believed that the best and fairest way to fix the housing system was to fix the economy. If people had jobs and tax cuts and unemployment insurance, they would be able to pay their mortgages and they would be able to buy new homes and that would take care of the housing problem.
That did not take care of the problem– it did not come close to taking care of the problem.
So one view is that the administration basically got the crisis backward. You couldn’t fix the housing crisis by fixing the economy. You had to fix the economy by fixing the housing crisis. And the administration’s housing policy wasn’t anywhere near sufficient to do that. This mistake was doubly disastrous because monetary policy, which would normally be a huge driver of recovery, typically works through the housing market, encouraging consumers to buy new homes while interest rates are low. Leaving the housing market’s dysfunctions to fester also meant that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to lower long-term interest rates had little affect on the economy.
In this morning’s New York Times, Binyamin Appelbaum tells the story of the administration’s disappointing housing policy response. It’s worth reading alongside Zach Goldfarb’s September look at the same subject. Together, the articles make an ironclad case that the Obama administration’s housing policies failed to fix the housing crisis, in part because they never really tried to fix the housing crisis.
As Appelbaum puts it, while Obama “poured vast amounts of money into efforts to stabilize the financial system, rescue the auto industry and revive the economy,” he “tried to finesse the cleanup of the housing crash, rejecting unpopular proposals for a broad bailout of homeowners facing foreclosure in favor of a limited aid program — and a bet that a recovering economy would take care of the rest.”
…
With global stock markets making a heroic effort to currently price in future stimulus, methinks the sucker will go down on the actual stimulus announcement, and even more without one, unless a non-announcement is supported by stealth stimulus.
O.C. school’s ‘Seniores,’ ‘Señoritas’ events called demeaning
“Officials canceled an Anaheim high school annual event after concluding it was demeaning to Latinos. Students dressed as gang members and pregnant females pushing strollers.”
“Administrators at the school will undergo diversity and sensitivity training, and the school will offer an ethnic studies class for students and hold an International Week activity in the 2012-13 school year, according to Sterling.”
Here’s the whole enchilada:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2012/08/se%C3%B1ores-se%C3%B1oritas-event-cancelled-anaheim-canyon-high.html
The FOMC is rapidly turning the MSM into a QE3 echo chamber. If they keep up this level of chatter, the stock market will crash on the September meeting announcement, whether or not QE3 is a go. Same thing happened to FB stock, thanks to excessive hyping of the IPO.
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news still works now, just the same as it ever did!
Fed’s Evans Urges More Accommodation Globally From U.S. to China
By Bloomberg News - Aug 22, 2012 10:42 PM PT
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said easier monetary policy around the world, including in China, would support growth, broadening his call for more stimulus in the U.S.
“I don’t need to see any more data to know that I think we should have more accommodation,” Evans said to reporters today in Beijing, referring to the U.S. “I certainly would applaud anybody who takes action in order to strengthen their economies” around the world, including China, he said.
Many Fed policy makers said additional stimulus would probably be needed soon unless the U.S. economy shows signs of a durable pickup, according to minutes of their most recent meeting released yesterday. Evans, who doesn’t vote on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, has been among the most vocal proponents of more accommodation.
“There’s an awful lot of uncertainty when I talk to business people about the global economy, European situation, the fiscal-cliff risk,” Evans said in a press briefing at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. Fiscal cliff is a term for higher taxes and spending cuts in the U.S. that will take effect at year-end unless Congress acts.
A private survey today indicated that China’s manufacturing is weakening, signaling more stimulus may be needed to secure a second-half economic rebound. China cut interest rates in June and July and has lowered the reserve-requirement ratio for banks three times from November to May. Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday that more adjustments to rates and the ratio can’t be ruled out.
Bernanke Speech
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who last month said the Fed may buy more bonds to cut borrowing costs, has an opportunity to clarify his views in an Aug. 31 speech to the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The FOMC is scheduled to next meet on Sept. 12-13.
A third round of asset purchases by the Fed would “provide confidence to markets that we are intending to be accommodative for quite some time,” Evans said today.
…
Alright! Maybe there will be a clear choice on housing policy by election day in November.
Romney: Nevada housing crisis shows Obama failures
Christopher DeVargas
Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney speaks to supporters at an event held at Sierra Truck Body & Equipment, a North Las Vegas business, Friday, Aug 3, 2012.
The Associated Press
Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2012 | 5:18 p.m.
Mitt Romney says Nevada’s housing market would rebound if federal mortgage backers sell the thousands of homes they hold and make more options available to avoid foreclosure.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee tells KRNV-TV that getting homes out of foreclosure and on the market will spur buying and rejuvenate Nevada’s housing slump.
Romney says Nevada’s lingering housing woes show the president’s policies haven’t worked. He spoke to the Reno television station Tuesday.
His comments are in contrast to earlier remarks, when he said the foreclosure process in Nevada should be allowed to “run its course and hit the bottom.”
Nevada has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation, and more than 60 percent of homeowners owe more on their homes than their properties are worth.