Bits Bucket for September 3, 2012
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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i ran across this on another blog. it helps explain why trade deficits truly don’t matter.
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Frédéric Bastiat on the fallacy of trade deficits (wiki)
The 19th century economist and philosopher Frédéric Bastiat expressed the idea that trade deficits actually were a manifestation of profit, rather than a loss. He proposed as an example to suppose that he, a Frenchman, exported French wine and imported British coal, turning a profit. He supposed he was in France, and sent a cask of wine which was worth 50 francs to England. The customhouse would record an export of 50 francs. If, in England, the wine sold for 70 francs (or the pound equivalent), which he then used to buy coal, which he imported into France, and was found to be worth 90 francs in France, he would have made a profit of 40 francs. But the customhouse would say that the value of imports exceeded that of exports and was trade deficit against the ledger of France. [24]
By reductio ad absurdum, Bastiat argued that the national trade deficit was an indicator of a successful economy, rather than a failing one. Bastiat predicted that a successful, growing economy would result in greater trade deficits, and an unsuccessful, shrinking economy would result in lower trade deficits. This was later, in the 20th century, affirmed by economistMilton Friedman.
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in a few days i’ll post how to solve the “immigration” problem. it will surely ruffle the feathers of both ‘conservatives’ and liberals. but first, i should define a few terms.
invaders: people who openly or surreptitiously cross national borders to enter any nation illegally.
illegal immigration: the process of lying to immigration officials or falsifying documents to gain entry or status in another nation.
illegal alien: anyone who entered a nation legally, but has since gone ‘out of status’ for any reason, while still remaining in that nation.
my solution to the problem will be in keeping with the best interest of our nation, and nothing else.
my solution to the problem will be in keeping with the best interest of our nation, and nothing else.
This assumes that there is a single best national interest. Sadly, we are currently a nation of fragmented interests and none of the fragmented interests is inclined to subordinate their goals to the greater national interest.
none of the fragmented interests is inclined to subordinate their goals to the greater national interest ??
Federal government is completely out of control…Give the States almost complete (not total) autonomy…
Federal government is completely out of control…Give the States almost complete (not total) autonomy…
i agree.
Yes, it worked so well under the Articles of Confederation.
Yes, it worked so well under the Articles of Confederation.
the federal government has gone beyond the powers granted to it in the constitution.
“the federal government has gone beyond the powers granted to it in the constitution.”
Yes it has. That is not evidence that the nation was better off before the national government went beyond its Constitutionally granted power.
…so have the states and most certainly have the corporations.
…so have the states and most certainly have the corporations.
you’re correct about the states also. as for corporations, they’d have no power if the constitution were followed.
The states? You must have missed their unbroken track record of civil rights violations not to mention the unbroken track record in human history of too much autonomy leading to fiefdoms and we no longer stay “united”.
You must have missed their unbroken track record of civil rights violations
you mean like government designated bathrooms and drinking fountains? no, i didn’t miss it. plessy vs ferguson was always unconstitutional, even though the supreme court mistakenly approved it at first. it was later understood that ’separate’ doesn’t qualify ‘equal’.
not to mention the unbroken track record in human history of too much autonomy leading to fiefdoms
tell me how autonomy leads to fiefdoms?
and we no longer stay “united”.
for what purpose are we united? why do we form groups? isn’t the individual the ultimate minority?
This assumes that there is a single best national interest.
i believe that what makes a nation prosperous, is in its best interest.
That sounds good on paper, but it starts to fall apart once you define national prosperity.
Is it GDP? Is it the median income? Is it the unemployment rate? Is it the poverty rate?
We have many different stakeholders, and all of them will be looking for their “quid pro quo” when it comes to tinkering with the economy.
Is it GDP?
no, borrowed money can be used to (temporarily) increase GDP.
Is it the median income?
no, nominal income can rise, while what it will buy can fall.
Is it the unemployment rate?
no, a prospering country can become so prosperous that more and more people can afford to retire quite early, if they choose.
Is it the poverty rate?
no, the poverty rate is an artificial construct that can formulated to show growing or declining poverty at will.
If you retire you’re not counted as unemployed.
If you retire you’re not counted as unemployed.
and you don’t have to formally retire until you decide to collect ‘retirement’ money from some entity.
“and you don’t have to formally retire until you decide to collect ‘retirement’ money from some entity.”
tj, you’re not particularly well informed. You do not have to “declare” yourself to be retired to not be counted as unemployed.
Unemployed means you don’t have a job, actively looked for work, but didn’t find any.
This argument was settled long ago by the Greek thinkers and fully articulated by the Founding Fathers.
When the people prosper, the nation prospers. When only a few prosper, the nation is failing.
When the people prosper, the nation prospers. When only a few prosper, the nation is failing.
very true.
tj, you’re not particularly well informed. You do not have to “declare” yourself to be retired to not be counted as unemployed.
you seem to be at low level of reading comprehension. i said nothing about ‘declaring’ anything. simply, you don’t show up as being retired, until you start taking a pension, or SS, or maybe disability. they just assume you’ve stopped looking. if it confuses you, consider “permanently stopped working” instead of the word ‘retired’.
Unemployed means you don’t have a job, actively looked for work, but didn’t find any.
if you don’t have a job, you’re unemployed. qualifiers are only needed for gov. razzle-dazzle definitions. the labor participation rate is a truer metric of unemployment precisely because it doesn’t use qualifiers, just numbers.
tj- I was throwing out some examples of metrics to help define the yardstick to get the dialog going and you dismissed them all. Let me reframe it:
How do you define (and measure) national prosperity?
Common sense tells you that it would be a system that
sets the stage for the majority population to be able to
be in the pursuit of happiness ,financial well being , and creative freedom . Also with the rule of law equally applied , void of rigged and stacked decks ,or void of a system based on bribery and corruption ,but rather a system based on principals ,such as was laid out by the Founding Fathers .
A system designed to protect the common man/women ,as well as the upper crust . Not a class system in which your born into your place to never be able to advance because he who has the Gold rules .
I was throwing out some examples of metrics to help define the yardstick to get the dialog going
and you succeeded. we are having a dialog. you had to give it some thought to come up with those four examples, and i answered you.
and you dismissed them all.
i didn’t dismiss them. i told you why they wouldn’t work as a metric for prosperity.
Let me reframe it:
How do you define (and measure) national prosperity?
lots of ways, and none in particular. i don’t believe metrics can measure prosperity. i think it has to be ‘noticed’. beanie babies and pet rocks were signs of growing prosperity. when people begin to spend money on ‘feel good’ or frivolous things, it’s a sign that they are prosperous. demand isn’t ‘want’ or desire. demand is buying power. want or desire, doesn’t manifest without buying power. as people’s buying power increases, they buy on whims or something they ‘might’ need in the future. naturally, when they’re poor, they buy less and give less, if at all. in general, people feel good when they’re prosperous.
Common sense tells you that it would be a system that sets the stage for the majority population to be able to be in the pursuit of happiness ,financial well being , and creative freedom.
yes
Also with the rule of law equally applied, void of rigged and stacked decks, or void of a system based on bribery and corruption, but rather a system based on principals, such as was laid out by the Founding Fathers.
agree again.
A system designed to protect the common man/women, as well as the upper crust.
in other words, total equality under the law.
Not a class system in which your born into your place to never be able to advance because he who has the Gold rules.
he who has the gold, can only rule after he has bought government power that should have never been for sale in the first place.
With all due respect, you still haven’t defined what national prosperity is and how you’ll measure it.
you still haven’t defined what national prosperity is and how you’ll measure it.
if you’ll look at the time stamp, you’ll notice that i answered you before i answered Housing Wizard, it just showed up later.
in general, people feel good when they’re prosperous.
Consumer Confidence?
As I said earlier, “We have many different stakeholders, and all of them will be looking for their “quid pro quo” when it comes to tinkering with the economy.”
In one of your replies regarding defining prosperity you state, “lots of ways, and none in particular. i don’t believe metrics can measure prosperity. i think it has to be ‘noticed’.”
We’re getting circular here. I don’t believe that we as a nation are at a state where we can all agree on what is in the nation’s best interest.
When the benefits are enjoyed by the privileged few, and paid for by the masses, change is difficult as the privileged few will fight tooth and nail to maintain the status quo.
When the benefits are enjoyed by the many, and paid for by the few, change is easier as the ones footing the bill will fight like hell for “a more egalitarian solution”.
My fear is that we’re at (or beyond) the tipping point of doing what’s “good for the nation” because of all the fragmented interests and that we’re in a death spiral when it comes to wise governing.
I don’t believe that we as a nation are at a state where we can all agree on what is in the nation’s best interest.
it’s more important to be correct, than to have a consensus. knowledgeable people have to be put in charge to make good decisions, or we are going to self-destruct. nevertheless, most people will agree that a prosperous nation is in all citizens best interest.
When the benefits are enjoyed by the privileged few, and paid for by the masses, change is difficult as the privileged few will fight tooth and nail to maintain the status quo.
this is a self-defeating view.
My fear is that we’re at (or beyond) the tipping point of doing what’s “good for the nation” because of all the fragmented interests
what are the ‘interests’ that you’re talking about?
and that we’re in a death spiral when it comes to wise governing.
you and i will probably disagree on what wise governing is..
When the benefits are enjoyed by the privileged few, and paid for by the masses, change is difficult as the privileged few will fight tooth and nail to maintain the status quo.
this is a self-defeating view.
No, it’s a pragmatic view.
it’s more important to be correct, than to have a consensus. knowledgeable people have to be put in charge to make good decisions, or we are going to self-destruct. nevertheless, most people will agree that a prosperous nation is in all citizens best interest.
Who gets to be the arbiter of correct? Good decisions are subjective. Unless, of course, I’m appointed as Supreme Benign Dictator. Then I’m okay with this
most people will agree that a prosperous nation is in all citizens best interest.
You’re being vague. Put some meat on the definition of prosperous and watch the debates begin. If someone has to give up something, they’re going to look for something else in return.
what are the ‘interests’ that you’re talking about?
Urban vs. Rural
Dems vs. Repubs
Black vs. White
Haves vs. Have nots
Sunbelt vs. Rustbelt
Dog people vs. Cat people.
nyDJ vs. non-English speakers
Liberals vs. Conservatives
Big Pharma
Big Oil
Big Agriculture
Wall Street
Lobbyists
Trial Lawyers
Career bureaucrats…
Feel free to add your own, but I think you get the point.
You can come up with all sorts of ideas of how things should be, but there’s a vast gulf between coming up with ideas and bringing them to fruition.
Part of that gulf is the political process, and none of the participants are in the habit of giving up something for nothing. To paraphrase, “What’s in it for me? Why should I make changes when I’m getting rich off the way things are now?”
you and i will probably disagree on what wise governing is..
I think we’re more similar than different, but in today’s dialog my sense is you’re far too idealistic and not pragmatic enough to realize there are at least two sides to every issue and that the opposing side will defend their views, ideas, and interests every step of the way.
@alpha-sloth
Consumer Confidence?
good one! yes, it’s one to look at. but there are problems with it too. same with a rising stock market. a few people believe that the market is a good measure of prosperity. but it might be just a measure of the weakness of the dollar. or maybe a fear of everything else. some metrics seem better than others, but they all have their problems.
when we’re prosperous the charities get lots of donations. people find it easy to get raises and promotions. more luxury items sell. i think it’s more noticeable than measurable.
No, it’s a pragmatic view.
fairness isn’t pragmatic.
Put some meat on the definition of prosperous and watch the debates begin.
increasing prosperity is self defining. the problem is that it’s hard to measure with any degree of accuracy.
Who gets to be the arbiter of correct?
history
Feel free to add your own, but I think you get the point.
all those interests need to be worked out with as little government as possible. it’s just life.
You can come up with all sorts of ideas of how things should be,
there’s only one idea.. to have the freedom to live one’s life as one sees fit, as long as one doesn’t infringe on the rights of another.
“What’s in it for me? Why should I make changes when I’m getting rich off the way things are now?”
depends on how you’re getting rich. nothing wrong with how sam walton got rich. there’s plenty wrong with how the owners of solyndra got rich.
the opposing side will defend their views, ideas, and interests every step of the way.
yes, until the great denouement punishes nearly everyone. the people that immigrated here from russia to escape communism cannot believe what we’re doing.
Dang! Unleash Ol’Bubba!
“…knowledgeable people have to be put in charge to make good decisions,…”
Of such simplistic musings are fascist dictatorships born….
Yet isn’t that also what the idea of a republic is based on?
I was at the Alamo yesterday. it appears the Alamo defenders died in vain, we were the only non Hispanic non Spanish speaking people there .
And yet… the U.S. has the rights to tax all the minerals and hydrocarbons under the soil, cattle raised, etc.
I hope you were joking, otherwise you’re just another racist NYC DJ rip off. Very sad.
I was referring to the mexican invaders. I am not racists, I just don’t like freeloaders who haven’t figured out how to use birth control.
I am not racists, I just don’t like freeloaders who haven’t figured out how to use birth control.
LOL.
I am not racists, I just don’t like freeloaders who haven’t figured out how to use birth control.
The socially conservative (anti-sex ed, pro abstinence crowd) and the Church are just as much to blame as the people having too many babies.
I’ve been to the Alamo. He’s right. I’ve also been all over most of the southern half of Texas in the last few years.
The takeover of southern Texas is fait accompli and reverse discrimination is a fact of life now.
Draw a line from San Diego to New Orleans. Even though the land still belongs to the U.S. the culture is now distinctly Mexican and reverse discrimination is rampant.
Really? Had they not died, NOBODY there might be white.
Chalk one (family) up for the white man.
IAT
Are you trying to rile up Darryl?
Are you trying to rile up Darryl?
no way.
If it was an attempt to rile me up, it was ubber fail since in this century, the definition of trade deficit is based on money moving, not goods.
The example is moot since we no longer track trade deficit as a matter of goods imported and exported at a customs house.
Instead, we track the balance of payments.
He exports wine and sells it for 70 francs, then buys coal for 40 francs, then brings the coal and the remaining 30 francs back into France, it is a balance of payments surplus, NOT a deficit.
In the 20th and 21st centuries, the trade deficit is the movement of money through the banking system, not goods through a customs house.
And if you want to understand why a balance of payments deficit does indeed matter…. Federal Reserve Z1. Before the money can leave the country to pay for the imports, it has to be borrowed into existence.
If your archaic definition of trade deficit is any indication of the thought that will be put into your solution to illegal immigration, I’m not exactly waiting with baited breath.
@Darrell
your post just proves you didn’t understand what bastiat said.
Sure I understand.
He took out wine that his customs house said was worth $40, then sold it for $70. He bought coal for $70, brought it into France and sold it for $90 and the customs said the coal was worth $90. So he took out $40 and brought back $90, creating a trade deficit.
Again, we now track the trade imbalance, not based on what passes through the customs house, but rather what flows through the banking system and currency exchanges.
In modern economy, he would take out the wine, and sell if for $70. Buy coal with the money, and bring that back and sell it. There would be no money flowing through international banks or currency exchanges, therefore, NO balance of payments deficit, so no international trade imbalance.
What happens now is that an American buys an Iphone using his credit card, borrowing money into existence. Apple takes the money to the foreign exchange and trades it for Yuan, probably selling the dollars to the Chinese government who is selling Yuan to keep the exchange rates favorable. Apple then uses that Yuan to pay the workers in China. China’s government uses the dollars it bought from Apple, to buy US Treasury bonds. This allows the government to keep borrowing and spending at low rates.
The Chinese workers end up with money, the American consumers end up with debt.
The dollars being dumped onto the international exchange markets shows up as a balance of trade deficit for America, and a surplus for China (China lending us the money back does not show up as a payment, so it maintains the exchange rates, without showing up as China buying goods and services from us.)
If trade deficits do not matter, then where is the $38T that we’ve borrowed into existence?
Property prices should experience a severe devaluation after the 2014 World Cup, said FGV’s economics professor Samy Dana.
Mr. Dana estimates that prices of many properties in the 12 host cities can plummet by up to 50% after the event, especially in the city of São Paulo. “I am certain that housing prices within the central regions of Sao Paulo will fall substantially,” he points out.
Demand for properties does, in fact, exist, but Dana argues that the current price levels seem unfounded.
http://brazilianbubble.com/brazils-housing-prices-will-meltdown-after-2014-world-cup-says-fgv-professor/
Dutch food and cosmetics giant Unilever expects poverty to rise in Europe as a result of the eurozone crisis and is therefore rethinking its marketing, according to a newspaper report Monday.
“Poverty is returning to Europe,” the head of Unilever’s European business, Jan Zijderveld, told the Financial Times Deutschland in an interview.
“If a consumer in Spain only spends 17 euros ($21) when they go shopping, then I’m not going to be able to sell them washing powder for half of their budget,” Zijderveld noted.
Unilever would therefore use marketing strategies that it used in developing countries in Asia, he suggested
http://brazilianbubble.com/unilever-poverty-is-returning-to-europe/
Damn another bubble blog to read; where am I going to find the time!
Another “tulip bubble” in Holand?
The over-regulated and over-subsidised [Dutch] housing market is in a slump, trapping 500,000 households in negative equity. These two factors have led to a fall in consumption that has not been offset by exports. The budget measures include a few reforms, like removing subsidies for new interest-only mortgages. But nobody is ready to tackle tax relief on existing mortgages. The labour market needs a shake-up to cut the cost of employing older workers and encourage people to work longer hours. The need for structural reforms in Europe is not confined to the Mediterranean—and it is no easier to get voters to back them in the north than in the south.
http://brazilianbubble.com/a-bubble-in-holand/
[Dutch] housing market is in a slump, trapping 500,000 households in negative equity.
Too bad nhz isn’t around to give us a report…
Neville Bennett, an economic history professor and columnist for New Zeland’s NBR, cites a graph (below) from Trendlines.ca to draw comparison of housing prices in Canada, UK, USA and Australia. And concludes: “Canada and Australia are bubbling. I think Canada is in for a terrible fall because it is gripped with a manic fervour for real estate.”
http://brazilianbubble.com/a-major-housing-bubble-in-canada-may-cause-international-distress-says-neville-bennett/
Canada has been held up as a “miracle” economy that escaped the worst of the GFC.
But any Kiwi looking at its present performance will be reminded of NZ a few years ago when we had a mirage of booming housing and consumption.
Canada has excessive private debt and a gigantic housing bubble, especially in Vancouver and Toronto.
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/58937/neville-bennett-worried-major-housing-bubble-canada-may-cause-international-distress
I love the internet, you type in a few words and you stubble on opinions and data from around the world.
” I think Canada is in for a terrible fall because it is gripped with a manic fervour for real estate.”
Be careful, we don’t want to scare Bob Rennie with “violent” language. Here, let me re-write it for him:
I think our cuddly Canada friends are in for a wee little boo-boo bump because they love the world too much to have seen it coming. Besides, they were just trying to help Boomers downsize. And… uh, yes, they like helping people. Buying a house is one way humans help other humans out.
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/09/03/4781427/cash-is-king-in-home-shopping.html
Cash is king in home shopping
Monday, Sep. 3
The Sacramento Bee
“Homebuyers trying to take advantage of the current ultra-low mortgage rates are likely to discover an unpleasant truth: They’re competing with lots of other buyers who can pay all cash.”
“The cash buyers aren’t just rental investors, who have occupied the lower end of the market for months. They include those seeking midpriced homes for themselves or their grown children.”
“How do they have that much cash? Some sold higher-priced houses in the Bay Area. Some liquidated stocks. Others pulled it out of savings.”
“The number of cash buyers means those with loans are at a disadvantage in a market where inventory is extremely tight and decent homes draw multiple offers.”
“Cash is king,” said Eric Pine, an agent with Lyon Real Estate in Folsom, who represents both cash buyers and those with traditional financing who have seen their offers repeatedly turned down.
“Sellers prefer cash because it creates certainty and speeds up the process. It also eliminates the need for appraisers, who have become more conservative since the housing bubble burst and often deliver low estimates, agents said.”
“Low appraisals further complicate the process for borrowers, who already face stricter standards from lenders.”
That’s right, pull out your check book suckers, we can’t have any of those “conservative” or “low” appraisals messing with our “buy now or be priced out forever” mantra…dig it up, borrow it, steal it, or cash out your retirement…just bring us the cash!
“How do they have that much cash? Some sold higher-priced houses in the Bay Area. Some liquidated stocks. Others pulled it out of savings.”
Not to mention the ones that “saved” up by not paying their mortgages for 3 years, and hence another “cash” buyer!
Yep. I had hoped that these folks would be kept from buying another house anytime soon, as they’d still require a mortgage on the new place. (the “saved money” most likely wouldn’t allow them to pay cash in full)
But given other housing price supports put in place, instead their “saved money” is seen as a positive as it helps stall the home price slide the rest of us have been waiting for.
“That’s right, pull out your check book suckers, we can’t have any of those “conservative” or “low” appraisals messing with our “buy now or be priced out forever” mantra…dig it up, borrow it, steal it, or cash out your retirement…just bring us the cash!”
I love it. Keep the idiots buying and bidding up the prices. CA has a disclosure law that if you find an undisclosed defect up to 10 yrs after the sale you can go after the seller. These all cash deals are going as is and lets the seller off the hook. Damn those appraisers until 3 yrs down the road when they want to sell and the market has changed.
CA has a disclosure law that if you find an undisclosed defect up to 10 yrs after the sale you can go after the seller ??
The 10 year statute is for “Construction Defect”….Disclosure law is a totally separate issue….A seller is obligated to disclose what he knows or, in some instances, should have known…Its imposible to disclose what you “don’t know”….
“The number of cash buyers means those with loans are at a disadvantage in a market where inventory is extremely tight and decent homes draw multiple offers.”
Sounds like a terrible time to buy. Why not wait until inventory isn’t so tight?
“Why not wait until inventory isn’t so tight?”
Yes, the word “inventory” now sounds just as silly as “market” and “loan” and “borrow” and “equity” and “refinance” and “down payment” and “trade up” and “curb appeal” and… and… and…
…and …and…and…
“Starter home”
“Snapping them up”
“charmer”
“RE Professional”
“owner motivated”
GAAAAAAAAAAHHHH!
Question:
If it truly is a fact that non-investors (not pushed to housing because of few options for yield elsewhere) are choosing to pay all-cash for a home, isn’t that evidence that home prices have reached a fair value (ie. independent of low interest rates)?
Follow-up Question:
Isn’t what these non-investor cash buyers are willing to pay a better indicator of value than an appraiser?
“If it truly is a fact that non-investors (not pushed to housing because of few options for yield elsewhere) are choosing to pay all-cash for a home…”
Stoopid is as stoopid does.
I’m a liar.
Don’t look now, but your pants are on fire.
Don’t be so hard on yourself. Perhaps you’re just stupid.
Now you guys just made me spill my coffee!
Stunningly ignorant but not unexpected.
Your insults are strikingly familiar.
Does an honest person ever lie? Can he believe 10 impossible things before lunch?
Did you get your real estate license?
Yesterdays bucket had a discussion of how many people visit the HBB WRT 30K readers being a high guess. For a good laugh you can google for the blogs name and alexa and read alexa’s peculiar opinion, which is somewhere around “20K” daily readers. This is based on traffic stats, reach %, a rough guess of number of internet users worldwide, and a fudge factor of my own because I block tracking on my browser and I imagine the percentage of people here who block is pretty high compared to normal. For goodness sake, we even have our own firefox browser extension (although I’m a chrome user)…. I think the percentage of “blockers” is probably very high here compared to for example aol.com so I would take the alexa stats with a house sized grain of salt.
Anyway aside from the blog having more traffic than you all think, its fun to look at other alexa raw data. Over 600 other sites link to HBB, apparently a “small village” of people love what Ben is doing enough to promote it. Pageviews per user makes sense at a bit more than one page per day. Some data is suspect, I’m apparently the slowest speadreader on the blog because the average viewer only spends 3 minutes per day here. Or maybe that time specification means a more likely 3 hours. Hmm. Search analytics is bizarre, according to alexa most people find HBB by searching for “it’s very common to see” (who says that here?) and “church fundraisers for youth”, and the obvious phrase “housing bubble” only comes in a distant and strange 4th. I can’t read arabic, maybe the most popular search query is the equivalent of “Dubai bubble popping” in Arabic. The impressively illiterate “when did the blogging boom started” is a popular search term I guess showing the longevity of HBB, or that Ben’s considered part of the “boom”. By far my favorite search query that leads to HBB, according to Alexa, is “how much lower will the real estate market drop”. The audience stats according to Alexa are interesting, in that old people who (should) know better are over-represented as readers, but the young people who are being crushed by the bubble and the second great depression don’t come here, donno if they know all about it as in the fish knows the water it swims in or if ignorance is bliss, and the reader stats do not match the poster stats where we have a pretty smooth distribution of claimed ages from 30 to … something large, admittedly we don’t have many self admitted “teen” posters. I guess the HBB is an “adult website” in the best possible way to interpret the phrase, well, aside from some of the trolls. The M/F ratio is claimed to be about 50:50 which I believe, lots more women posters here than, say, slashdot or stackexchange. Also interesting to compare posters education level, which is often claimed to be masters and above or equiv, with readership education levels, which is apparently mostly high school only, maybe “the smart speak and the dumb listen” is just natural?
The TLDR summary of the above data is WRT yesterday’s traffic stats discussion at least one semi-trustworthy 3rd party ratings institute (and we know ratings institutes would never lie in any other field like say economics LOL LOL LOL) 30K is probably on the high side of a reasonable guess which is probably “a couple dozens of thousands”.
I think this fear of tracking (web analytics…not spyware) on websites is either uninformed or irrational. The tools that are used to track traffic (Adobe Site Catalyst, Coremetrics, Google Analytics, Unica, Etc.) are used for many reasons, but none of them are used for evil in any way. It’s usually done to try to increase traffic, to try to create engagement (although that’s impossible to measure with these tools IMO), and simply to measure how you they are doing. Moreover, the same technology that allows web analytics also allows sites to create an experience that is more customizable based on what it is they think you want. With the exception of “retargeting” solutions (which is also not evil) and spyware (which is evil, but is based on different technology), nobody knows where you go after you leave this site, or any other site. Well, nobody except your ISP, who knows every single site and page that you view regardless of whether you have your cookies turned on or not.
This is an odd position. Throughout human history it has been possible to go someplace, then go someplace else, and no one has been able to link the two visits. Now, it is possible. Yet, any who note and respond to reduce their vulnerability to this massive change in human experience are deemed “uninformed” and “irrational.”
It is quite possible the trackers will never be anything but benign in intent. But, first, do I really want someone else guessing what I’d like to see next, or do I prefer to live in a world where surprise and new information is possible? Second, what if you are wrong, i.e., what if someone in the mix of the process has evil intent? It’s too late to do anything about it after they have all their tracking data.
Discretion is the better part of valor.
IAT
‘30K is probably on the high side of a reasonable guess which is probably “a couple dozens of thousands”.’
A lower readership than 30K actually bolsters the point I was trying to make when I brought this up, which is that the way HBB readers vote in November will have no bearing on the outcome of the national election.
Fascinating post, vince. Thanks.
Post by localandlord VERY late last night in the bucket:
“the police have limited manpower so they choose to tolerate crime in certain areas.”
Three minor fender bender car accidents:
1) In front of my house, fancy “rich-ish” suburb (lets say, right around top quartile point?), virtually all residents are economic self interest traitors aka quisling party voters, this rates a squad car on site with two officers filling out accident reports and interviewing all parties and witnesses and breathalyzer everyone involved (including, supposedly, witnesses)
2) Parking lot at ex-employer, “transitional neighborhood” call cops and upon hearing no injuries and the cars can be driven, the cops demand and order us both to immediately, like right now, drive over to the station where they do the report, decide we’re not drunk but the other guy was drunk (why he voluntarily drove to the station is still a mystery).
3) Parking lot at employer just on border of ghetto, “95% obama voter” urban core demographics, police upon hearing no injuries, please visit the desk sgt at the department hq within the next week or so to fill out an accident report, if and only if you need it for insurance, if and only if you actually have insurance. Of course the other guy’s license was fake and he had no insurance, but the VIN I wrote down tracked down the vehicle, at least…
Supposedly its about the same WRT robberies / burglaries, if you’re in the “urban core” the police absolutely will not roll unless someone’s actively currently firing a gun at someone on the phone with 911, or someone is bleeding. Other than that all they do is write parking and traffic tickets to generate much needed revenue. On the other hand in the rich suburbs the SWAT team (literally) rolled in my neighborhood because basically a drunk guy with a warrant passed out in a house that has a hunting rifle in the closet but not locked up in a gunsafe (eventually they tear gassed him, then after he gave up, they tasered him a couple times to punish him, I heard the screaming over the police scanner as they tortured him)
“Supposedly its about the same WRT robberies / burglaries, if you’re in the “urban core” the police absolutely will not roll unless someone’s actively currently firing a gun at someone on the phone with 911, or someone is bleeding.”
Pre-Giuliani New York. The schools worked the same way pre-Bloomberg. The parks are still like that. Good if there are lots of donations.
Drive through South Central L.A. any given night and you will see a very strong and very active police presence everywhere.
“Drive through South Central L.A.”
Ehhhh, no thanks.
The Filming of Reginald Denny’s Beating
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDWNB01xGj4 - 167k -
On the anniversary of California’s notorious urban uprising, TIME checks in with 15 of the event’s key figures to see what they’re doing now
Damian Williams, a former high-school football star, was part of one of the riots’ most enduring, excruciating images — the vicious attack of a white truck driver named Reginald Denny.
Rioters jumped onto the rig, pulled Denny from the cab of his truck and began to inflict a horrific beating, all recorded from above by a news chopper. Williams bashed Denny’s head with a cinderblock, while another rioter, Henry Keith Watson stood on his neck and another spat on him; a motorcyclist even shot at the truck’s gas tank, but fortunately missed. Williams was arrested days later, but, after his lawyers successfully argued that he had not intended to kill Denny (saying the prosecutors were scapegoating the two), Williams escaped the most serious charges against him of attempted murder, assault and aggravated mayhem and was convicted instead of only four misdemeanors and simple mayhem.
Williams was released after serving four years of his 10-year sentence, but soon found himself back in jail. He was convicted of participating in the 2000 murder of an L.A. drug dealer, and in 2003 was sentenced to 46 years in prison. He is currently serving his sentence at Pelican Bay State Prison, according to California Corrections Department officials.
http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/la_riot/article/0,28804,1614117_1614084_1614510,00.html
What about the others?
IAT
“What about the others?”
I think they were elected to Congress.
I’ve been unintentionally depressing my family members this weekend with current price information on the value of individual houses provided on Zillow. In each case, I told them that the prices are to be taken with a grain of salt, as the value ranges Zillow provides suggest they don’t really have a clue.
For instance, a colleague at work has a home which Zillow says is worth between $0.98M and $2.38M, with a Zestimate of $1.50M. But the home has been on the market for two months for $1.40M, with no sale. I would expect a home priced at $100K below market value to move quickly, but I guess this depends on what one’s definition of market value is; mine is a price at which there is a buyer in the market who is willing and able to purchase the home.
It’s gradually dawning on me that many other American homeowners will slowly wake up over the coming years to how much home equity they have lost, as most people don’t think about these things until they are ready to sell, refinance or take out a home equity loan.
as most people don’t think about these things until they are ready to sell, refinance or take out a home equity loan.
I think this may be the biggest component of the shadow inventory. If you’d like to sell (for whatever reason), but in doing so you realize the loss, then a rational decision is to delay the sale if you can.
This is going to take a long time to work itself out.
a rational decision is to delay the sale if you can.
Waiting and delaying the decision while your losses grow isn’t rational.
Except people always think it will turn around soon.
I tried explaining to some older people (60ish) that, if they want to downsize and move closer to the city center, they should not wait because they’re losing precious time. The hemmed and hawed about waiting for home prices to come back. It was sad. They do live in a really nice area with a lot of cultural amenities, near Johns Hopkins U, but they’re expecting to be able to sell the house for what it was “worth” in 2007. It makes me wonder if they really can’t afford to sell now and they refi’d (probably). Sad. I don’t see why people don’t focus on paying off their house, rather than refi-ing. It takes longer (10-15 yrs of conscious effort compared to refi being done in a few hrs) but it’s the way to get cash flow that is actually free.
The reason house prices went up so consistently post-securitization is that people were able to take on more and more debt. Lenders/Originators were able to make sketchy loans because they had shed repayment risk for that debt and thus didn’t care about having them repaid.
Ultimately, risky borrowers were getting loans like option ARMs, NINJA loans and the like. The maximum debt load the individual could service was identified.
Individual Peak Debt was reached and surpassed. Wall Street, working together with the government (by having government buy/insure toxic debt), is making every effort to make sure that the debt load on the house buyer remains as high as possible.
The money from excess individual debt is no longer on the table however. The driver of house price appreciation in the past (more and more debt) has been exhausted. Depending on how durable the government house price subsidy is, I see either historic house price increases, in line with the inflation rate. Or a continued slow decline as the durable debt level for individuals is determined. Personally, I think we’re still in the slow decline phase.
“Waiting and delaying the decision while your losses grow isn’t rational.”
Is it rational to wait and delay the decision under a belief that home values will come back up in the next few years?
Everyone’s situation is different, but I’m of the belief that most people don’t like to realize a loss unless they’re forced to do so.
Markets go in cycles, and by nature Americans tend to be an optimistic lot. So it comes down to this: sell now and book the loss, or give the market some time, pay down the loan with your monthly amortization, and keep the house for the time being.
As I said earlier, this is going to take a long time to work itself out. Over time, amortization and quite possibly inflation (not to be confused with appreciation) are the elements to working itself out.
Once again, the original point I was making is that the current owner who does not have to sell is probably the largest component of the shadow inventory.
this is going to take a long time to work itself out. Over time, amortization and quite possibly inflation (not to be confused with appreciation) are the elements to working itself out.
Yep. But don’t tell the drama queens, revolutionaries, or secret househunters talking their book.
secret househunters talking their book
Ding ding ding- we have a winner!
I think one thing that gets lost here is that the number of people who are affected by the drop in housing values (and their corresponding drop in net worth) is so large that it can’t be ignored by the political realm.
There will always be about 30%-35% of the population that will be renters due to limited incomes, financial skills, educations, etc. That leaves about 65% to 70% of the population that own homes. When 65-70% of the population takes a major hit to their largest asset, it’s foolish to think that policies will not take that into account.
This is going to take a long time to work itself out.
“Everyone’s situation is different, but I’m of the belief that most people don’t like to realize a loss unless they’re forced to do so.”
Economists have been onto that idea for a while already.
Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market*
David Genesove and
Christopher Mayer
+ Author Affiliations
Department of Economics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Centre for Economic Policy Research
The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Abstract
Data from downtown Boston in the 1990s show that loss aversion determines seller behavior in the housing market. Condominium owners subject to nominal losses 1) set higher asking prices of 25–35 percent of the difference between the property’s expected selling price and their original purchase price; 2) attain higher selling prices of 3–18 percent of that difference; and 3) exhibit a much lower sale hazard than other sellers. The list price results are twice as large for owneroccupants as investors, but hold for both. These findings suggest that sellers are averse to realizing (nominal) losses and help explain the positive price-volume correlation in real estate markets.
“You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.”
- Ayn Rand (1905-1982)
you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.”
I wonder if that was after she got lung cancer, after scoffing for years at the idea that smoking cigarettes- which she did avidly- caused it. And then going on Social Security and Medicare, thus betraying her life’s philosophy.
Ouch!
It is bizarre that zillow’s ranges should be so wide–it would seem like a maximum range would be a couple hundred thousand in either direction, to account for the condition of the house. To be fair to zillow, they don’t know when the bathrooms were redone, when the kitchen was redone, how old the HVAC is, whether a house has good condition wood floors, what the landscaping situation is, etc. In a lot of cases, they’re probably clueless about what’s going on in the basement, which in my area is the biggest way that people expand and improve their house, while almost never pulling permits.
Still, all of this should only move property values a reasonable percentage up or down…
“To be fair to zillow, they don’t know when the bathrooms were redone, when the kitchen was redone, how old the HVAC is, whether a house has good condition wood floors, what the landscaping situation is, etc.”
There is no possible way these maintenance details can add up to over $1M worth of uncertainty in market value.
Stock trader credo: “In stimulus we trust.”
World stocks rise after poor China production data convinces traders that easing is on the way
By Associated Press, Published: September 2 | Updated: Monday, September 3, 5:02 AM
LONDON — Markets started yet another potentially crucial week on a solid note as investors betted on more central bank action and that China would enact more stimulus measures following a dispiriting manufacturing survey.
However, with Wall Street out of action because of the Labor Day holiday, the August trading lull continued into the first day of the new month.
Two economists say the persistently high unemployment rate is cyclical and not because of structural changes in the labor market.
Monday’s trading was dominated by a survey suggesting that China’s manufacturing sector was contracting. An industry group said on the weekend that China’s purchasing managers’ index, which reflects manufacturing activity, fell to 49.2 in August from July’s 50.1 on a 100-point scale. Numbers below 50 show a contraction.
Though that is a bad sign for the global economy, investors think it makes it more likely that the country’s monetary authorities will ease monetary policy soon. Beijing could either reduce interest rates, lower the amount banks hold in reserve or increase spending. China’s economic growth has already fallen to a three-year low of 7.6 percent in the second quarter. Corporate profits and other indicators have fallen despite government stimulus measures.
“August saw Chinese manufacturing activity hit a three-year low, prompting a return of the ‘bad news is good news’ trade as markets rose on expectation of some action from the Politburo in Beijing,” said Chris Beauchamp, market analyst at IG Index.
…
Comment by ahansen
2012-09-02 16:58:53
I’d argue that there’s a direct correlation between instruction in musical performance (which requires reading and comprehending an integrative and theoretical language) and academic success, and that the steady decline in standardized test scores correlates with the deemphasis of musical instruction in the classroom.
—————————————————–
But does the academic success come from the learning or the excercise of disipline, concentration… required to learn?
Every really GOOD musician Ive ever met has also been very smart in general, but which came first? were they already smart enough (nature) to learn music? or did learning music (nurture) make them smart? I see this in other arts too such as painting, scupture…
Either way, what would it mean if John Lennon’s IQ was lower than the guy who shot him?
“Every really GOOD musician Ive ever met has also been very smart in general, but which came first?”
That is really a very good, and difficult to answer, question.
“The artist is nothing without the gift, but the gift is nothing without work.”
Emile Zola (1840-1902)
I like this quote and don’t mean to bastardize it but the same could be applied to the athlete who juices. Juicing in itself is worthless without a lot of hard work. And speaking of juicing, wasn’t it Daryll down in Phoenix who said he was using to the tune of several hundred a month? Was it the same one who complained about the price of a condo?
no, it was Overtaxed. and Bill from LA was in that discussion as well.
“Every really GOOD engineer I have ever met has also been very smart in general, but which came first?”
Every really GOOD musician Ive ever met has also been very smart in general, but which came first?
One interesting thing about being in the army band program is that you get to make a lot of observations in that area. Some of the relatively good musicians weren’t that gifted in a scholastic sense, but still had that “something” that made them come off as interesting and reasonably intelligent.
Apparantly there are nine types of intelligence.
Google-up “nine types of intelligence” to learn more, and maybe take a few tests to learn about your own intelligence.
Also, Wiki-up “Theory of multiple intelligences”.
Apparantly there are nine types of intelligence.
That’s a good start…
My personal theory has long been that there are HUNDREDS of types of intelligence.
I missed out on the left-right intelligence. If I tell you to turn right, I have a 50-50 chance of beeing correct.
Both. Kids with parents who value classical/symphonic musical instruction are often products of a more refined upbringing in general. Smart people breed smart people.
But musical aptitude is (again, generally) indicative of a brain that integrates linear as well as creative thought processes, communication, memory; I.E.; a smart person, although so-called “idiot savants” often demonstrate musical giftedness.
Curiously, stroke victims who have lost the ability to speak, can sometimes still communicate by singing, so perhaps there’s a correlation?
The story throughout the developed nation economies seems to be flagging growth buoyed by stimulus hopes.
Euro Steady But Vulnerable to ECB Disappointment
Published: Monday, 3 Sep 2012 | 7:43 AM ET
By: Reuters
The euro held steady on Monday, supported by expectations the European Central Bank will detail plans this week to stem the debt crisis, but vulnerable to the risk of disappointment and flagging growth prospects.
The growth-linked Australian dollar fell to fresh six-week lows against the dollar and the yen as investors sold after signs of economic weakness in China and weak Australian data.
The euro stood at $1.2570, flat from late U.S. trade on Friday and off an eight-week peak of $1.2638 set that day after a speech by Federal Reserve President Ben Bernanke fanned expectations of further stimulus to revive growth.
Traders cited option barriers at $1.2650, with resistance at the July 2 high of $1.2681.
Trade was slow with U.S. markets closed for a holiday.
The euro was underpinned by expectations the ECB will unveil a bond buying program, probably at its policy meeting on Thursday, aimed at lowering borrowing costs for peripheral euro zone countries such as Spain and Italy.
That is expected to lower the risk premia — the additional cost over low-risk securities — of holding European assets as well as the euro.
“While the euro could rally to the $1.2670/80 region as short positions are trimmed, we are likely to see investors sell into it as there is a great of deal of uncertainty about what the ECB may announce on Thursday,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at CIBC World Markets.
“Along with bond-buying plans there will be updates on growth and inflation. So there is a risk of disappointment.”
The ECB is likely to downgrade growth forecasts this week, adding to pressure for a cut in interest rates in coming months.
…
Fair Game
Mortgage Registry Muddles Foreclosures
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/02/business/fair-game-mortgage-registry-muddles-foreclosures.html?_r=1
Tease:
So, to recap: At the time of the foreclosure, Wells Fargo held both loans taken on by Mr. Kline. Nevertheless, its lawyers sued WMC, contending WMC held the smaller loan. Even though WMC did not own the loan, its lawyers represented to the court that it did. All the while court costs and other charges were billed to Mr. Kline.
Many questions arise in this case. For starters, if the MERS registry is the accurate record it claims to be, why didn’t Wells Fargo or its lawyers see that it, not WMC, held the second lien when the Kline foreclosure began?
A MERS spokeswoman declined to comment, citing the pending litigation. Elise Wilkinson, a spokeswoman for Wells Fargo, said that as trustee of the securitization, the bank “would not be in possession of any information regarding a foreclosure action.”
“All such information would be in the possession of the mortgage loan servicer,” she said, “which is the party responsible for initiating and managing all aspects of the mortgage loan foreclosure process.” That was the HomEq Servicing Corporation, which is no longer in the business, the Wells spokeswoman said.
Ditto for WMC. Why didn’t it recognize early on that it had sold the Kline loan years before, saving Mr. Kline legal fees? Rick DeBlasis, a lawyer handling the matter at Lerner Sampson & Rothfuss of Cincinnati, declined to comment, saying it was part of the class action.
It will be interesting to watch that case unfold. But in a unanimous ruling against MERS last month in Washington State Supreme Court, the judges described their problems with the registry. “Under the MERS system,” they wrote, “questions of authority and accountability arise, and determining who has authority to negotiate loan modifications and who is accountable for misrepresentation and fraud becomes extraordinarily difficult.”
“Under the MERS system,” they wrote, “questions of authority and accountability arise, and determining who has authority to negotiate loan modifications and who is accountable for misrepresentation and fraud becomes extraordinarily difficult.”
MERS- an unregulated free market disaster. And one of the key enablers of this whole mess.
MERS……..the gift that just keeps on giving.
Free market?
It was a fraud. There was no free market involved.
MERS- an unregulated free market disaster. And one of the key enablers of this whole mess.
Paraphrasing the “Diceman”
“Fraud? Free Market? What’s the difference?”
There was no free market involved.
Who created MERS? Hint: It was an attempt by the free market to circumvent centuries of real estate law.
Did MERS break the law or not?
Breaking the law is fraud.
NOT free market.
Breaking the law is fraud.
NOT free market.
Ah, a True Scotsman wouldn’t do such a thing!
There is not and never will be any such thing as a “free market”.
Because the free market would never do anything fraudulent, by definition, in a perfect world. No wonder free markets are so hard to find.
“Nobody, as long as he moves about among the chaotic currents of life is without trouble.” -Carl Jung
I wasn’t a fan of Facebook as a company, but I think I might be starting to be…
http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-stock-letter-shareholders
Cultivate the Housing Truth crop. Water it everyday.
Develop the antibiotic to kill the Housing Crime Syndicate. Research it and trial run your formulation… daily.
Debt to reach $16 trillion in time to crash Democrats’ convention
By Stephen Dinan
-
The Washington Times
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Just as Democrats are gaveling in their convention Tuesday, the federal government likely will announce another dubious milestone — $16 trillion in total federal debt.
In an election already focused on domestic issues of jobs, spending and deficits, the $16 trillion number is likely to underscore just how much is at stake in November for both parties, which are offering dramatically different ways to begin to eat away at the deep hole.
Gross federal debt has been flirting with $16 trillion for the past two weeks, and the government ended Thursday $15.991 trillion in debt.
With several debt auctions scheduled for the end of last week, budget analysts think the government probably broached the $16 trillion number on Friday, and it will be reported to the public Tuesday, which, thanks to the Labor Day holiday, is the next business day.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/sep/2/debt-to-reach-16-trillion-in-time-to-crash-democra/ -
Looks like we were typing the same article at the same time
Anybody want to guess who owns the Washington Times?
I will give a hint:
He croaked yesterday, was ultra right-wing and was a phrophet of GOD.
“He croaked yesterday”
Where did he live? Maybe he can still vote.
Group says it found 30,000 dead North Carolinians registered to vote
By Kelly Poe The News and Observer
Posted: Sunday, Sep. 02, 2012
RALEIGH A Raleigh-based group devoted to reducing the potential for voter fraud presented the N.C. Board of Elections on Friday with a list of nearly 30,000 names of dead people statewide who are still registered to vote.
DeLancy says his group’s list of dead registered voters would have been larger had it included records from Virginia and South Carolina, which together account for 55 percent of all North Carolinians’ out-of-state deaths, he said. Although most states allow the release of death certificates for voter registration accuracy, Virginia and South Carolina do not, DeLancy said.
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/09/02/3497857/group-says-it-found-30000-dead.html - 98k
What has religion got to do with reporting facts?
This response is better suited to this weekends lies thread, but as has been pointed out here, the only legitimate news source in Washington is the Post:
‘As violence continues in postwar Iraq and U.S. forces have yet to discover any WMDs, some critics say the media, including The Washington Post, failed the country by not reporting more skeptically on President Bush’s contentions during the run-up to war. The result was coverage that, despite flashes of groundbreaking reporting, in hindsight looks strikingly one-sided at times.’
“The paper was not front-paging stuff,” said Pentagon correspondent Thomas Ricks. “Administration assertions were on the front page. Things that challenged the administration were on A18 on Sunday or A24 on Monday. There was an attitude among editors: Look, we’re going to war, why do we even worry about all this contrary stuff?”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58127-2004Aug11.html
Or the New York Times:
‘For critics of the Iraq war, the downfall of Ahmad Chalabi occasioned a hearty, unapologetic outpouring of Schadenfreude—a loud cheer for a well-deserved knee to the administration’s gut. An analysis by David Sanger went so far as to name names of individuals who had associated themselves with the discredited leader of the Iraqi National Congress. The list, he wrote, included “many of the men who came to dominate the top ranks of the Bush administration . . . Donald H. Rumsfeld, Paul D. Wolfowitz, Douglas J. Feith, Richard L. Armitage, Elliott Abrams and Zalmay M. Khalilzad, among others.”
‘The phrase “among others” is a highly evocative one. Because that list of credulous Chalabi allies could include the New York Times’ own reporter, Judith Miller. During the winter of 2001 and throughout 2002, Miller produced a series of stunning stories about Saddam Hussein’s ambition and capacity to produce weapons of mass destruction, based largely on information provided by Chalabi and his allies—almost all of which have turned out to be stunningly inaccurate.’
http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/media/features/9226/
It you read the article about the reserve currency from Ron Paul: http://paul.house.gov/ you understand that keeping oil priced in dollars is what the war was really about.
That said Saddam Hussein was a barbaric dictator that gassed his own people and deserved to be removed. However, it is our naive view that you can have a democracy in the middle east that causes us the true pain. See Carter, Bush II and Obama for the results of a policy. Oil prices through the roof for those who are slow on the uptake and misery for the people both here and there.
Exactly. Just before the Iraqi war, Iraq was in the process of converting its oil trading to… Euros.
The moment I learned that, I knew exactly what the war was REALLY about. To add insult to injury, I learned of it just before the invasion actually took place. It was in fact, broadcast as public knowledge… and quickly buried.
Key phrase in your piece, Ben, is “…(information provided by Chalabi) AND HIS ALLIES….”
“Allies” who turned out to be Dick Cheney via his chief of staff, Irving Lewis Liebowitz, better known as Scooter Libby. How much money has Cheney’s Halliburton (KBR) made off the war(s) again…?
I do not understand why it makes any difference whether a fact appears in a conservative or liberal news source as long as it is accurate. Are you disputing that the debt is 16 trillion? Of course, I understand stating it much higher if you accounted for all liabilities but it is certainly that high.
So we are not appoaching $16 trillion in debt because the article was in the Washington Times?
That’s right. It’s owned by Moonies. Who can’t be taken seriously, as can Mormons. I should get back to work; I’m building a big wooden boat. I’m gonna fill it with 2 of all the animals on the planet.
And the media and the people will remain silent…
——————————–
WASHINGTON (CNN) — President Barack Obama pledged Monday to cut the nation’s $1.3 trillion deficit in half by the end of his first term.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/23/news/economy/fiscal_summit/index.htm
—————————
Debt to reach $16 trillion in time to crash Democrats’ convention
The Washington Times | September 2, 2012 | Stephen Dinan
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Just as Democrats are gaveling in their convention Tuesday, the federal government likely will announce another dubious milestone — $16 trillion in total federal debt.
With several debt auctions scheduled for the end of last week, budget analysts think the government probably broached the $16 trillion number on Friday, and it will be reported to the public Tuesday, which, thanks to the Labor Day holiday, is the next business day.
While $16 trillion isn’t a tipping point, it is a stark number that Republicans said will reflect poorly on Mr. Obama, who has overseen the biggest debt explosion in the country’s history.
“This is a grim landmark for the United States,” said Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, the ranking Republican on the Senate Budget Committee. “Yet the president seems strangely unconcerned.”
The Obama campaign didn’t respond to a message seeking comment on the milestone, but, speaking on “Fox News Sunday,”David Axelrod, a top adviser to Mr. Obama, said the president has a “plausible plan” to stabilize the debt, but acknowledged the plan doesn’t actually begin to reduce it.
“And the media and the people will remain silent…”
In 2008, presidential candidate Barack Obama said the Bush deficit was “unpatriotic”
“The problem is, is that the way Bush has done it over the last eight years is to take out a credit card from the Bank of China in the name of our children, driving up our national debt from $5 trillion for the first 42 presidents — #43 added $4 trillion by his lonesome, so that we now have over $9 trillion of debt that we are going to have to pay back — $30,000 for every man, woman and child. That’s irresponsible. It’s unpatriotic.”
Obama put Bush’s off-the-books wars of choice on the books. That alone makes comparing his deficits to the previous administration moot. And then he had to wind the wars down without disaster or route, at the same time he dealt with the economic depression he also inherited.
He didn’t build those deficits. W and co did.
Was again you are confusing stated deficits with debt. All the wars were accounted for on the national debt under Bush. Obama has raised the national debt during his four years as much as Bush raised it during eight.
By your logic…
I look forward to your post four years from now.
Absolving President Romney of ALL responsibility for anything that happened in his first term.
Or does that only work when there is a democrat in office?
He didn’t build those deficits. W and co did.
Well, he won’t inherit two full-blown wars.
Yeah - it may be three by then.
And he gets to assassinate Americans without trial too!
And he gets to assassinate Americans without trial too!
Just like Honest Abe.
How much would the Bush debt have been if he had included the wars? How much is the Obama debt if the war debt is not included?
From the article:
Will Romney take us back into war in Iraq or lead us into a war in Iran?
Obama’s pledge was predicated on cutting health care costs. Single payer might have done more to accomplish that than the ACA. But Congress would not support it (Republicans 100% against doing anything about health care), so we ended up with a Frankenstein’s monster of a bill.
Also from the article:
The first took longer than intended, the second could not get past a Republican obstructed Congress (the oft-cited 2 year supermajority in the Senate really lasted from Franken’s swearing in on 7/7/2009 until Kennedy’s death on 8/25/2009 and was not as strong as conservatives sometimes purport).
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/07/01/democrats-senate-supermajority-strong-advertised/
I have no documentation about how effective or how much was to be gained by the “streamlining” efforts.
This article about the $16 Trillion debt is from CNN news. Are they also owned by the Moonies?
Oops, I should have looked closer. CNN is quoting the Washington Times article. I guess the two really are both owned by the Moonies.
Over the years, CNN has become nothing more than a more sophisticated Drudge report.
Sad.
Wow, cults get a lot of respect on this blog. So what if they got the number right, it is still a horses**t rag of a news source.
‘So what if they got the number right’
You’ve got an odd sense of what reporting should be. I don’t care if it comes from snake handlers, if it’s the truth. I guess you are cool with the Washington Post and NYT pushing to start a war on lies. It’s just a few hundred thousand dead, couple trillion bucks. Besides, they’re reputable!
By how much is Romney vowing to cut the deficit in his first term?
I know Obama sucks. What I’m not convinced of is that Romney wont’ suck even more.
In fact, I’ll be voting in Romney in hopes he will win, and we can finally demonstrate what a giant pile of CRAP the Republican economic philosophy is.
We haven’t done that yet?
Interesting - Sweden and Austria provide no medical services of any kind to illegal aliens. Spain will now only give services in emergency care, pregnant women and minors.
But the suckers (I mean taxpayers) in America…
————————
No more free treatment for undocumented migrants in Spain
Presseurop | 31 August 2012
“Starting on September 1, at least 150,000 foreigners from non-EU states who do not have residency rights in Spain, will have strict limits imposed on their access to the public health system,” explains El País, in the run-up to the application of the decree on “urgent measures to ensure the sustainability of the National Health System. “Medical assistance for undocumented migrants will be restricted to emergency care, pregnant women and minors,” adds the newspaper. According to the government, the measure which is part of its austerity package, will result in savings of €500 million per year. However, El País remarks that –
A more realistic calculation would be for savings that will not exceed half of this sum – which is close to the figure for revenue lost because of difficulties billing for health services offered for free to EU-passport holders from other member states.
This measure will not only subvert the universal character of the public health system, but also the principle of free treatment. Individuals in this fringe of the population will only have access to comprehensive health care if they pay for a form of insurance (coverage on the basis of special agreements with health authorities), which will cost €60 per month for those aged between 17 and 65, and €155 for over-65s. This is a supreme absurdity that is almost obscene. There is no more astonishing demonstration of the the government’s total ignorance of social realities than the demand that the unemployed should pay charges which they will never be able to afford. Four autonomous communities – Andalusia, the Canary Islands, Basque Country and Asturia – have announced their opposition to the bill, arguing that it will undermine equality and social cohesion.
Such standards are expensive to maintain, and they can be jeopardised by budgetary imbalances. Abuses, like treatment for illegal immigrants, who do not contribute to the financing of the health system, are destabilising factors which must be remedied. In fact, all European states, with the exception of Spain, apply rules limiting access to public health care for illegal immigrants. In some cases, as in Sweden and Austria, these limits involve complete denial of access. The goal of such rules is twofold: they curtail ever increasing healthcare costs, and more importantly, they discourage illegal immigration, with its attendant labour exploitation and social security fraud. The Spanish government is simply implementing procedures that are already well-established in
“Medical assistance for undocumented migrants will be restricted to emergency care, pregnant women and minors,”
These people will go to emergency care and clog that just like in the US. It is better to provide the preventative care (for a small fee would be better) than make them go to the emergency care.
You know who caused this don’t you? Reagan! He signed the Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act which forces hospitals to treat anyone even without insurance. I hope if Romney gets elected he will repeal that law and nullify that outdated socialist Hippocratic Oath.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Medical_Treatment_and_Active_Labor_Act
Number of unemployed in France passes 3 million
Miami Herald/AP | 03 September 2012
PARIS — The number of French unemployed has broken through the 3-million barrier for the first time since 1999, the country’s leaders say.
The latest total adds pressure on President Francois Hollande, whose administration is under attack for doing not doing enough to fix the economy. France’s unemployment rate is currently 10 percent.
Breaking the 3 million mark carries more symbolic importance than economic but it was covered extensively in the French media over the weekend. The Ministry of Employment says the 3-million threshold was crossed in 1996 and again in 1999.
Banana,
What is todays wisdom on housing my brother?
Buy what you can afford.
Live beneath your means.
Your house should cost no more than 3x your household income.
Your household expenses should cost more than 30% of your take home pay.
Your house should cost more than 110x your local average monthly rent for a similar house.
NEVER count on your house “appreciating” in value. If you are LUCKY, it will keep up with inflation.
Understand the mortgage contract you are signing. A simple fixed rate mortgage is nearly always the best way to go. Pay your mortgage off as fast as you can.
And NEVER take out any “equity”.
Buy what you can afford.
Live beneath your means.
Your house should cost no more than 3x your household income.
Your household expenses should cost more than 30% of your take home pay.
Your house should cost more than 110x your local average monthly rent for a similar house.
NEVER count on your house “appreciating” in value. If you are LUCKY, it will keep up with inflation.
Understand the mortgage contract you are signing. A simple fixed rate mortgage is nearly always the best way to go. Pay your mortgage off as fast as you can.
And NEVER take out any “equity”.
CHECK MARK for us next to each item on this list. And yes, this is exactly what I’ve learned on HBB after all these years.
If all goes well we close in 2 weeks.
For the bears here, do you agree or not agree that if your situation fits 2bananas checklist, then buying is not a bad move.
I would only add 2 more things to this list:
-don’t buy if you plan on moving in the next 7-10 years
-don’t buy if PITI is more than your current rent
-don’t buy if your work situation/location is iffy
Sucker
“If all goes well we close in 2 weeks.”
Good luck.
Enjoy your home and your kids, life is short.
I’ve done all those things, and didn’t use a Realtor either.
“Live beneath your means.”
Since your income is the spending of others, it is mathematically impossible for everyone to live beneath their means.
that would be true only if the pie never gets bigger.
what about a band of squirrels collecting nuts: cannot they all live below their means?
is it just me or has Hollande only been in office a few months? I don’t really see how he’s supposed to fix the unemployment problem in that time span. And it’s not like the problems in Europe can be fixed by any one country in any case…
12 Solutions:
1. Reintroduce Glass-Steagall Act
2. RICO charges for AIG, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup and Bank of America for massive and on going mortgage and securities fraud.
3. A full audit of the Federal Reserve.
4. Clawback of Banker Bonuses that were funded with taxpayer dollars
5. Allow Student Loans to be discharged during bankruptcy proceedings.
6. Overturn Citizens United vs. FEC
7. Repeal Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000
8. Repatriate Overseas Corporate Profits and tax at the current rate
9. Treat all Capital Gains as income for tax purposes
10. Ban High Frequency Trading and Quote Stuffing
11. Remove FICA tax cap
12. Reinstate FASB 157
5. Allow Student Loans to be discharged during bankruptcy proceedings.
I don’t think so.
1. And it will get defeated when actually voted on
2. How do you suggest to prove it? Remember it is only securities fraud if they didn’t disclose up to securities laws standards? The disclosures can be 100’s of pages.
3. Good idea, but doesn’t do much unless people are willing to do something with the information
4. Government can’t modify a private contract after it has been fulfilled and paid out. Hank Paulson could have required those contracts be modified before the bailout funds were made available, but he didn’t. That ship has sailed.
5. Most student loans are government backed. Discharging the borrower in bankruptcy puts the taxpayer on the hook.
6. You and what supreme court? Do you mean by amending the Constitution? You can try. I’ll get back to you about it in 50 years.
7. You and what Congress?
8. Government can’t force companies to move their profits against their will. That decision is left to the management and the Board of Directors.
9. You and what Congress?
10. You and what Congress?
11. You and what Congress?
12. You and what accounting oversight organization? Though I think that maybe the SEC could do a lot about that by themselves.
Don’t talk law Polly ,Congress has violated contract law with
bail outs ,cutting deals on crimes and just charging penalities
instead of due process on criminal acts and contract law .Congress can do anything they want ,and no doubt they do .
HFT has become so important that companies are building or re-activating microwave radio routes linking major markets because the signals get there a few milliseconds faster than they do on a fiber optic cable route.
Milliseconds.
http://nyconvergence.com/2012/06/high-frequency-traders-sights-set-on-microwave-dishes.html
No, they can’t do anything they want. There is this Constitution thingy that I took an oath to uphold and protect.
13. Repeal the bankruptcy reform act of 2005.
That legislation was the one of the worst crimes ever perpetrated against the middle class. Let’s have the banks open up the easy credit candy store (late 90’s through 2005), then, right at peak debt, make it almost impossible for middle class people to file chapter 7 bankruptcy. Coincidence? I think not.
You don’t need to guess who owns our government when you see these types of events take place.
That “reform” is all the proof needed that the PTB knew trouble was coming.
Yes, and in their “oh $hit” moment they knew exactly what to do…lock ‘em in.
“…You don’t need to guess who owns our government when you see these types of events take place….”
Progressives?
Haha, not this time. I am sure you know its the banking interests, I guess there are some progressives running those companies, so you may be half right.
Amazingly, I find I agree with you.
What is the problem that these solutions are intended to fix?
#5 you get a college degree for the money spent so why should you keep the degree if you file for BK. Its is an asset and it needs to be disposed of someway.
#8….If you spend the money on Americans (no H1B no visa workers) only Americans create new jobs tax free….heck give executives bonuses if the pres gets 20% so does the janitor.
#9 maybe make the first say $10,000 a year tax free to help the little guy…over that regular rates apply.
#10 just make all bids good for 1 second…..and put a 1/10 cent tax on every share bought or sold….that would end it asap….
Labor Day: The Republican $400 Million Buy-Out
Adalia Woodbury
September 3rd, 2012
Happy American Labor Day Tea-partiers, Republicans and conservative Americans, today as you celebrate this American day off those un-American lazy bastards forced you to take!
…
After a week of Orwellian politics brought to you courtesy of the Republican Convention, we spend this weekend celebrating the people who make their living through the sweat of their brow. People who the Republican Party claims want too much. People who literally work for everything they have.
Labor Day is about celebrating the people who make it possible for corporations to profit.
So much of the Republican pre-coronation celebration was centered on the theme “we built it.”
They overlooked who did the building, who made the widgets, who cares for the sick and who educates our children. This weekend for the real builders of America, the real labor that makes it possible for corporate America to earn their profits.
If corporate America had its way, Labor Day would be replaced with a “Job Creator” Day during which those who provide the labor would pay homage to the almighty “god” the “Job Creator.”
There would be no minimum wage, let alone a living wage. Work safety standards would be a faint memory. They talk about the dignity of work, without recognizing that the dignity comes from the ability to provide for one’s family as a result of one’s labor. In Republican speak, this concept is equated with communism and socialism, as we hear story after story about the hardship that results when the money you inherited isn’t growing fast enough to buy a car elevator.
This weekend is about recognizing that the true American heroes are the people who labor every day to make life better for all of us. It’s about celebrating that while dollars only build fortunes, Labor built America.
Yes - we get it.
If we cut ONE inefficient/wasteful government program or bring down government spending (% GDP) to the already INSANE levels of the Bush, Clinton or Reagan days…
We will OVERNIGHT turn into Somalia.
Because ONLY big government built this country and made it strong.
And ONLY big government can take care of us and solve ALL our problems.
Why don’t we just tax the shit out of the rich and the monopoly corporations and Wall Street and reset the rigged corrupt systems ,and than people might get jobs and wages that can afford the Government for the people ,not the 1%.
Saying that our problems today are because of Unions and Social Security obligations is a joke .What about the high cost of health care that cracking the back of this Nation ,oh no it must be the good wages of government workers .It wouldn’t be Wall Street and the Banks that are causing the problems ,its the poor people who get some food stamps .
Oh right ,its Unions and poor people and the middle class wanting to much that are causing all the problems .
“Because ONLY big government built this country and made it strong.”
–So you keep pimping.
Comment by 2banana
2012-08-30 09:47:20
//Instead of trying to “bail out” cities like Buffalo or Detroit that lose more than half their populations, the federal government might initiate a downsizing program to retire municipal debt, close schools, shut down physical infrastructure, reforest parts of the city, and help people, including city workers, find jobs elsewhere.
–You lose more credibility with every post, 2banana.
Yep ,labor built America . Labor fights the wars also and they come home in body bags . Labor buys the bulk of the products and labor makes all boats float .
But the greedy powerful rich people and Corporations think they deserve everything and to hell with the majority population
,they are only to be fleeced .
And how dare the poor not just take volunteer charity from the
Well Placed at their whim .
The rich want a rigged system in their favor so capital can rule and bribe anything and so what if those poor workers can’t
make ends meet ,they should be happy we allow them to survive .
I rarely have time to post but read this place almost daily. I can believe that 20-30k people visit here a day. I read this board for at least 2 yrs before I ever made my first post here. The discussions simply move too fast for me to get into the conversation during the workday… and if I don’t comment until 6 or 7pm in the evening, the original commenters aren’t around to respond/debate/converse. This isn’t a criticism at all–but I can definitely see this site getting much more traffic than you’d expect from the rather small cast (a couple dozen?) of regular commenters.
Another thing that seems to work for HBB is not holding back on debate/criticism. Sometimes it goes a little far, IMO, but generally it weeds out bad posters. I just wish NYC DJ would get the point… I don’t have the firefox extention yet, but I might get it just to block his idiotic comments (for example, his racism and his idea that people should turn in their degrees for debt forgiveness).
“The discussions simply move too fast for me to get into the conversation during the workday…”
I have wondered about that as well. Not everyone here is retired like I am, so how do some folks stay glued to the site on normal working days to post numerous times throughout the day? Do they have government jobs?
I don’t know about anybody else, but I think in high tech it’s pretty common to crank on something for an hour or two and then take a break to ruminate on what’s next. So I usually check in every couple of hours and the Joshua Tree extension makes it quick and easy to get to the new replies.
The Joshua Tree extension is awesome, BTW, especially for blocking out the extraneous noise.
I didn’t find it useful for blocking because it also block all replies to the person I’d like to block. If that person happens to get in early on every interesting conversation you end up missing most of the comments. Wasn’t worth it to me.
Could this be the case the fox taxing the hen house for his retirement check? I will post more details some other day
Central New York assessor’s many jobs add up to huge state pension
http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2010/01/post_136.html
Pacini says 40 to 60 percent of homes in New York are either over-assessed or not assessed properly. He claims he has not lost a small claims assessment case while representing others in more than 15 tries.
http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2009/05/grievance_day_appointments.html
Public unions are the LARGEST campaign contributors of ALL TIME. 99% of all this money goes to democrats. In NYS, as a CONDITION OF EMPLOYMENT, you must join the public union and contribute unions dues WITHOUT your consent.
http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/list.php?order=A
The public unions run their own candidates and back their own candidates with money and volunteers. No democrat would win without their support or endorsement.
Once the public union candidates get into power, they shovel massive amounts of money to the public unions in terms of insane salaries/benefits and pensions. NO ONE represents the people who will have to pay for these “promises” - the homeowner.
Spike your pensions with gobs of overtime? No problem. Retire for 1 day and come back WITH your full pension and full salary. No problem. Retire on “disability” for a full non-taxable pensions and compete in iron man competitions. No problem.
It is a great feedback cycle. And there is always more and more money to pay for these “promises” with higher and higher property taxes.
Oh - and republicans want to starve children, pollute the air and throw black people back in chains. So it is ALL ok.
Could this be the case the fox taxing the hen house for his retirement check? I will post more details some other day
Too bad for your credibility that your bloviations don’t match the numbers, 2banana.
“In 2011, union members accounted for 24.1 percent of wage and salary workers in New York and 16.1 percent in New Jersey, compared with 24.2 percent and 17.1 percent, respectively, in 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.”
“union members accounted for only 11.8 percent of employed wage and salary workers in the United States”
Keep pimping your act though. Give Colbert a run for his money!
I know it is tough going through life drinking the liberal kool-aid.
There is a HUGE difference in PUBLIC unions and PRIVATE unions in PRIVATE companies.
You can’t seem to grasp that fact.
PUBLIC unions are bankrupting cities/counties and states ALL across America.
You can’t seem to grasp that fact either.
FDR could and warned us:
All Government employees should realize that the process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service. It has its distinct and insurmountable limitations when applied to public personnel management. The very nature and purposes of Government make it impossible for administrative officials to represent fully or to bind the employer in mutual discussions with Government employee organizations. The employer is the whole people, who speak by means of laws enacted by their representatives in Congress. Accordingly, administrative officials and employees alike are governed and guided, and in many instances restricted, by laws which establish policies, procedures, or rules in personnel matters.
Particularly, I want to emphasize my conviction that militant tactics have no place in the functions of any organization of Government employees. Upon employees in the Federal service rests the obligation to serve the whole people, whose interests and welfare require orderliness and continuity in the conduct of Government activities. This obligation is paramount. Since their own services have to do with the functioning of the Government, a strike of public employees manifests nothing less than an intent on their part to prevent or obstruct the operations of Government until their demands are satisfied. Such action, looking toward the paralysis of Government by those who have sworn to support it, is unthinkable and intolerable.
Yikes, 24.1 percent of all workers in New York State work for the state government?
You got a problem with dat?
Now pay your property taxes before Tony decides that your fair share is going to go up a little more…
No, Bill; that 24% is ALL union members in NYS.
Which makes Kochbanana’s assertions all the more absurd.
Of course, Kochbanana doesn’t think those unionized companies and corporations should have to pay their fair share of taxes.
L.I.R.R. Retirees’ Free Golf Not Justified, State Says
By DUFF WILSON
Published: November 6, 2008
New York State’s parks officials have determined that there is no legal justification for hundreds of retired Long Island Rail Road workers on disability to be playing golf free in state-owned parks with passes intended for severely disabled people.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/07/nyregion/07lirr.html -
LIRR Pension Fraud Probe Charges 10 More Retirees, Offers Amnesty Deal For Others
By COLLEEN LONG 05/22/12 06:31 PM ET
NEW YORK — Railroad retirees who faked disability claims in order to get more lucrative pensions from the country’s second-largest commuter rail system would avoid prosecution and be able to keep some benefits if they admit wrongdoing, federal officials said Tuesday.
Nine of the 10 retirees appeared in federal court in New York on Tuesday; one was arrested in Florida and appeared in court in that state. All 10 pleaded not guilty. The charges included conspiracy to commit health care fraud.
The round-up came five months after an initial batch of 11 arrests targeted railroad workers who retired legitimately from the railroad, then filed disability claims due to supposed on-the-job injuries, only to be spotted later playing golf and tennis, working out, and even riding in a 400-mile bike race. Two doctors were charged with fabricating or exaggerating medical assessments to bolster bogus claims. Prosecutors said they made millions in the scam.
The U.S. Railroad Retirement Board and the LIRR are separate organizations, and workers received disability payments from the former and pensions from the latter. While fewer than two dozen people have been arrested so far, authorities have said they suspect that hundreds of other workers pulled similar stunts, inflating future costs for the retirement board by an estimated $1 billion.
The U.S. Railroad Retirement Board and the LIRR are separate organizations, and workers received disability payments from the former and pensions from the latter. While fewer than two dozen people have been arrested so far, authorities have said they suspect that hundreds of other workers pulled similar stunts, inflating future costs for the retirement board by an estimated $1 billion.
Under the amnesty program, workers who respond by July 6 give up the right to all future disability benefits. Workers who respond by Aug. 10 would also have to give back half the money they received under the phony circumstances. LIRR president Helena Williams said the program was an important opportunity for anyone else who has been dishonest.
“We urge those involved to carefully consider this offer. These federal pension benefits … must be reserved for those who are truly disabled,” she said in a statement.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/22/lirr-pension-fraud-scheme-ten-retirees-amnesty_n_1536759.html - 223k
FDR was speaking in a time when the people who RAN the government were also constrained by the voice of reason. NOW, however, people who run governments use business (il)logic to try to foist the same draconian rules (they themselves may have when in the) private sector entities use. So, obviously, public sector workers respond.
It’s a two-entity dynamic. If you want public sector workers to work for the greater good, you have to vote in politicians who also care about the greater good. Otherwise, the workers are just patsies.
IAT
You conveniently left out this part from the same BLS info for US:
“Public-sector workers had a union membership rate (37.0 percent) more than five times higher than that of private-sector workers (6.9 percent).
Corporations don’t want to keep their promises ,Goverment can’t keep their promises ,and labor can’t keep their promise to pay taxes and buy crap that Corporations produce without good wages ,while they go into poverty and need the Government even more . You got to ask yourself who threw the numbers off balance that all the systems went into crash mode while a great deal of wealth was transferred upward .
“You got to ask yourself who threw the numbers off balance that all the systems went into crash mode while a great deal of wealth was transferred upward.”
+ freaking 1
Paul Ryan voted for the GM Bailouts so he supports unions and the progressives.
The congnitive dissonance on the right in America is truly stunning.
It’s worse than stunning: it’s catastrophic.
The congnitive dissonance on the right in America is truly stunning.
The modern Republican voter
http://cdn.hivehealthmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/fat-guy-on-a-scooter.jpg
Oklahoma
■It Is Illegal To Have A sleeping Donkey In Your Bathtub After 7pm
Got a buy out offer from one of the two pension plans I’m vested in. They want an answer by Oct 15, for a payout just before Christmas……..gotta admire the timing……
So, does one take the buyout ($35K or thereabouts) and roll it into an IRA? Or keep it, and hope that it is still around to draw a pension from when I turn 65? (company in question is a state regulated electric utility).
Im looking at it from the viewpoint of risk……that you really have no control over any kind of pension, unless you own the money. And that there are too many ways for other people to screw you out of it. (example….state has just given company permission to suspend contributions to the plan.)
Take the money and run
You could host a really cool toga party.
Ive already told the kidz I want them to spend 20k to throw a kick azz party when I kick it.
An electric company should be around for a very long time.
It all comes down to the time-value of money.
What is the present value of your pension if you assume x years you will be able to collect on it (i.e. year you think you may die -year of retirement). Be objective. There are web sites that can help with the calculations.
Is that number then greater or less than $35K?
FYI - 35K is not alot of money.
“FYI - 35K is not alot of money.”
You’re such an ass sometimes.
35K to buy out a pension?
It is peanuts depending on time in service and how close to retirement.
You’re such an ass sometimes.
But he’s right, it really isn’t, at least in some parts of the country.
The car dealers are having trouble selling 36k new cars around here, when J6P is averaging 12 bux/hour, and you can buy a decent house for $100k.
A lot of it has to do with where you think inflation is going, and how well you can index it youself, vs “the pros” who are managing it for the pension plan.
Im thinking something like an S&P 500 index fund, less financial stocks.
Let me share with you a lesson I learned: Back in 2001, I put 10K into an S&P 500 index fund. 10 years later, summer 2011, before the market tanked (pure luck, that), I pulled out 11K. It was less than I would have gotten had I put the money in a savings account. Not CDs, a savings account. It was underwater most of that time.
Lesson: I’ve heard many people insist the stock market can yield significant gains. I’ve heard this both on the internet and in meatspace. Perhaps so, based on those reports. However, at a minimum, don’t roll in the entire amount. The lesson I’ve learned is that, if you are going to get into the stock market, dollar cost average in. That way you limit your downside damage and increase your upside potential. Rolling in a large-ish sum at a particular point is no different than betting blind.
My $0.02. YMMV. Standard disclaimers apply.
If the company is offering it to you, they think it is a good deal for them. Your job is to figure out what assumptions they used to make that determination (for example, they are probably assuming that the company and the state don’t go bankrupt in at least part of their analysis), whether you agree with them, and, if you don’t, if your analysis means taking the buyout is better for you even when they assume it is worse.
Just don’t ask a financial adviser. They assume they will be able to sell you something with a nice juicy fee for them if you take the cash. Their advice is self-interested to the point of being useless.
Current employer has a 100 % match, 100% vested on day one 401k plan, with hired hand financial advisers
Told them I considered this plan “gambling money”.
So far, their performance is worse than an S&P 500 index fund. At least their fees arent crazy.
You’ve talked about your health and how you don’t expect to live to an old age. If you have good reason to believe that, it may be information you have that they aren’t taking into account…
I don’t think that longevity of senior citizens is a government/business/societal priority. All kinds of issues will be solved if the Boomers are killed off sooner rather than later.
So everyone will say the right thing for the record, while supporting policies that will expedite our exit from the scene.
“I don’t think that longevity of senior citizens is a government/business/societal prority.”
Which means each citizen should make his longevity his own responsibility.
“All kinds of issues will be solved if the Boomers are killed off sooner rather than later.”
If that’s the Game then it’s up to you to choose to not play.
There are things worse than dying.
Like trying to live under a Republican/Randian Free Market Neo Faschist regime, for one.
Its all I can do to keep from getting screwed six ways from $unday as it is, much less try to do it as a 75 year old, alzheimers afflicted senior citizen.
What is the annual payout that you are giving up, and how long do you need to wait to get it?
Assuming the plan and you will both still be around, it’s better to take the deferred annuity.
But how do you figure out the chances both you and the plan will survive until you start drawing your pension?
Got a chance to hang around with one of my buddies over the weekend. Evidently, the Jack Welch/GE plan is in full force, in all its “My way or the highway” spendor.
Among other tidbits…..
-The company once prided itself in promising its owners that the company would build parts for old products. Not anymore. Only current products will be supported, even the jets. Kiss a bunch of resale value goodbye. Say hello to a couple hundred thousand pizzed off owners.
- The outsourcing plan has run into heavy weather. Major subassemblies are/were built in Mexico,assembled in USA. Major inflight structural failure (with an FAA guy on board!!!!!!). Survived the emergency landing by slimmest of margins. Immediate suspension of “production certificate”. Millions spent to rectify issues, needs FAA inspection to reactivate certificate. FAA guys wont go to Mexico, safety/security issues. (which Im sure will be reported as “too much regulation”
Also having “work ethic” issues…….spending time money to train guys, then they quit after 9-12 months, because they have saved enough money to live high on the hog in Mexico for 2-3 years.
-Chinese joint venture going as predicted…….Chinese want access to all of the intellectual property/tribal knowledge, are disappointed with the “Co. operation” so far.
- Too many old guys being thrown off the payroll, too many local mom and pop vendors going out of business. Lots of scrappage of high dollar parts, because the newbies are on OJT. Parts shortages because the original vendor is out of business, and approaching new suppliers leads to either being laughed out of the office (thanks to the limited production rubs…….or insane prices……..like paying $50k for parts that were $5k in 2008).
“Too many old guys being thrown off the payroll …”
Looks as if a pending shortage of old guys is in the works.
I love Six Sigma. The company I work for adopted Six Sigma several years ago and since then going to work everyday is like going to Comedy Central.
Getting paid while you get to enjoy all the laughs? Hard to beat.
Company VP quit to “pursue other interests” a few years back.
According to people who would know, it was because he choked/beat up a Six Sigma guy on TDY from the “Mother ship”
As I said, Comedy Central.
There will be huge amounts of money to be made, if/when all of these chickens come home to roost.
If I had a few million bucks laying around, I’d be buying up a bunch of “can’t fly without it and expensive to reproduce” spare parts.
A “low margin” business will suddenly become “high margin” when all of the vendors are out of business, and the market is too small for the big guys to worry about.
Anyone hear about the fiasco in the model railroad business? Seems that the Chinese government is “advising” the chinese manufacturers to leave the business, and get into different businesses with higher margins. All of the OEMs who have moved production to China are running out of inventory, and can’t get more, unless at inflated (read “Apple”) prices.
My current employer has no chance whatsoever of becoming ISO certified anytime soon, and that’s OK. However, they decided they wanted to pursue it anyway, not really understanding what they were taking on. They hired a new guy to make that happen a few months ago. Fast forward to a couple of weeks ago, nothing more had been said about it, new guy “pursued other opportunities” and it no longer with the company. I have to laugh because the guys talking about making it happen don’t seem to have any idea of what it entails and how far away from possibility it is…
penny wise and pound foolish…
A concept that is making me rich while keeping me in stitches:
“A good manager can manage anything”.
Obama and subprime loans: http://dailycaller.com/2012/09/03/with-landmark-lawsuit-barack-obama-pushed-banks-to-give-subprime-loans-to-chicagos-african-americans/
“If you see some people don’t make enough money to afford the mortgage, why would you give them a loan?” asked Obama client John Buchanan. “There should be some type of regulation against giving people loans they can’t afford.”
Even the flakes get it.
Exactly. Why DID they make loans to people who they KNEW could not sustain the payments?
The answer was so they could bundle them and sell them off to an unsuspecting secondary securities market.
So?
Roughly 28 percent of all mortgages defaults, and 60 percent of all subprime defaults, were mortgages that started with a PRIME mortgage.
http://rortybomb.wordpress.com/2009/05/07/unemployment-the-other-shoe-dropping/
And as was shown on this very blog, sub prime defaults were only 7% of the total defaults, with prime loans leading as of sometime in 2010.
(I would post the internal links, but I don’t how to use this blog’s search effectively)
But I thought liberals LOVE to pay taxes and do their fair share!
Oh, never mind, they love to spend OTHER PEOPLE’S money.
John Lennon also “imagined” lower taxes, which is why he fled England.
—————–
Johnny Depp Flees France Over Tax Hikes
Townhall.com | September 3, 2012 | Daniel J. Mitchell
Actor Johnny Depp has moved out of France and returned to America because he didn’t want to become a permanent French resident and pay income tax there. …Depp has now moved his family out of France after government officials asked him to become a permanent resident, as he feared he would end up paying tax in both countries. He tells Britain’s The Guardian newspaper, “…France wanted a piece of me. They wanted me to become a permanent resident. Permanent residency status – which changes everything. They just want… Dough. Money… ” Depp goes on to explain that if he spends more than 183 days a year in France he will have to pay income tax in both Europe and America, adding, “So you essentially work for free.”
Just another example of why in the modern world you cannot raise tax levels to the percentages, we use to have. Sorry, if you raise the taxes on the rich too much you end up with less not more revenue. I am not arguing fairness, I am arguing practical reality. That is why Holland and Obama are doomed to fail, they really have the policies of the 50’s not Romney.
That’s what the Laffer Curve was all about.
Funny, it never works that way for the Middle Class…….or whats left of it.
-Cant tax the poor……they have no assets to tax.
-Cant tax the rich…….they will bail, unless they have complete control over how government spends money. Like wars to protect their investments. Or govrrnment services supporting their toys, that are paid for by the wretched refuse, under the guise of “infrastructure”
Where are the middle class going to go? That is why every tax increase just ends up falling on the middle class.
“I thought liberals LOVE to pay taxes and do their fair share!”
Yet the other day, you were pimping for the Corporations; some of who PAY NO TAXES!
“Thirty large and profitable Fortune 500 corporations paid no federal income taxes between 2008 and 2010, according to a study on corporate loopholes.
In fact, the 30 companies enjoyed a negative effective income tax rate over the three-year period, even as they earned pretax profits of $160 billion, according to two think tanks, Citizens for Tax Justice and the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/67509.html
–This just another case of your obvious partisan bias against liberals.
Both liberals and conservative politicians love to spend other people’s money. However, the liberals don’t hide it. The conservatives do try to hide it. Both they both love it and do it with equal vigor.
Like I’ve said, any of you rich folks who are threatening to leave America over having to higher taxes are MORE than welcome to try and find some place better.
The sooner the better.
In New Jersey, answering a traffic cop who asks “Do you know why I pulled you over?” by saying,“If you don’t know, I’m not going to tell you” is an automatic $300 fine.
“In New Jersey, answering a traffic cop who asks “Do you know why I pulled you over?” by saying,“If you don’t know, I’m not going to tell you” is an automatic $300 fine.”
I would love to see how they worded that in the Jersey law books.
Tax Implications of Selling Your Home
Bonnie Lee - August 30, 2012 - FOXBusiness
If you are selling your home for a profit, you are allowed to shelter up to $250,000 of profit if you are single and up to $500,000 of profit if you are married filing a joint return. But you can only shelter the money if you lived in the home for two of the last five years prior to the sale. And you cannot have gone through a sale in which you excluded the gain during the prior two years before the sale of the current home.
If you are able to exclude the gain, you don’t have to report the sale on your income tax return. If you do have a gain, report it on form 1040, Schedule D, Capital Gains and Losses. A loss on the sale of a personal residence is not deductible.
Any gain above the exclusion level is subject to income tax, so be sure you have calculated in every dime to your basis in order to reduce your tax. Here is what you can add to the original cost of the home:
If you are selling a vacation home or a second residence rather than your main residence, you are required to pay tax on the gain from any second home. Your main residence is considered to be the home in which you spend most of your time.
If you are in a position in which you have had to short sale your home, you may be subject to taxes based on income generated by loan forgiveness. But this only comes into play if the loan forgiveness exceeds $2 million on your personal residence. There is no exclusion if it is a rental property . However, in most of the cases I have handled, no tax was due because the taxpayer could prove insolvency or had filed bankruptcy.
To determine insolvency, you would compile a list of all of your assets and all of your debts the day before the short sale took place. If you arrive at a negative number after subtracting debt from assets you are considered insolvent to that extent. For example, your assets, including the home you are short selling total $500,000. Your debts, including the balance of the mortgage on your residence, total $720,000. You are insolvent to the extent of $220,000. If the loan forgiveness totals $250,000, you would be required to pay taxes on $30,000 of loan forgiveness.
U-Haul Truck Carrying Biden Gear Stolen in Detroit
Biden Gear?
“He would not specify what kind of equipment was in the truck.”
Maybe it was a truckload of Air Bidens.
By Arlette Saenz
Sep 3, 2012 10:08am
U-Haul Truck Carrying Biden Gear Stolen in Detroit
A U-Haul truck carrying equipment for Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign event in Detroit Monday was stolen this weekend, ABC News confirmed with United States Secret Service.
Ed Donovan, a spokesman for the USSS, told ABC News the truck carrying equipment was stolen between late Saturday night and early Sunday morning at the Westin Hotel in Detroit. He would not specify what kind of equipment was in the truck.
Biden’s speech at the Metro Detroit AFL-CIO Labor Day Rally in downtown Detroit will still go on as planned starting at noon Monday.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/09/u-haul-truck-carrying-biden-gear-stolen-in-detroit/ - -
Maybe it was a truckload of Air Bidens.
Would that be the same as blow-up Bidens?
In France, it’s illegal to name a pig Napoleon.
Renters get boot with big rate hike
A story about a minister gouging a cancer patient. Tell me about “renting for half the cost”. I wish. Maybe in some places, but not here.
Dana-Lee Smirin has rented a house in San Francisco’s Dolores Park neighborhood since 2008 and considered it “a haven of stability” as she battles Hodgkin’s lymphoma and the aftermath of a car accident.
So she was distressed when her landlady informed her that she wants to sell the house and almost doubled Smirin’s rent, from $3,100 to $6,000. Smirin viewed it as a tactic to get her out because it’s easier to sell a vacant property.
“The only way to evict me is to raise my rent to an abominable amount I can’t afford,” said Smirin, 42, who is on disability leave from her job as a sustainability consultant. “Then if I can’t pay it, she can serve me a three-day notice to evict.”
Single-family homes, such as Smirin’s rental, are exempt from San Francisco’s strict rent-control laws, which cap rent increases for multiunit buildings. Landlords cannot evict tenants from any kind of unit without just cause, but they can utilize several loopholes - such as big rent increases in single-family homes and violations of the rental agreement in apartment buildings - to create a legal reason to evict tenants or encourage them to move.
Those loopholes are coming into play now, as both rents and sale prices escalate in the city. Tenant activists say the incidence of renters being forced out is likewise on the rise. San Francisco Rent Board statistics show that eviction numbers have stayed consistent over the past two years, but advocates say renters often move out before the point of eviction.
SF, I agree with your decision to buy.
SF, I agree with your decision to buy.
Thank you Muggy. There are very few people I can speak about housing with, outside of this blog. Most people just repeat whatever everyone else is saying.
I am the kind of person that obsessively focuses on topics that interest me, read anything and everything about that topic, and like to dig a little deeper. I appreciate the feedback here, and actually enjoy the disagreements and difference of opinions. Recently I’ve been irked by the “you’re stupid, you’re wrong, you’re a liar” sound bites, which really don’t bring much to the discussion.
“…who is on disability leave from her job as a sustainability consultant.”
Word play?
Why is it landlords are willing to pay a lawyer $10,000 to evict and will never ever ever give that same $10,000 to the tenant if they move quietly and nicely?
“An undercover wildlife officer bought three red-bellied piranhas in West Palm Beach last week, in an operation aimed at keeping the ferocious fish out of Florida’s waterways.”
http://www.tampabay.com/incoming/article1249489.ece
They could eat the Burmese pythons! It’s a free market solution, if the wildlife officers would just Get Out Of The Way.
Posted: 4:48 p.m. Monday, Sept. 3, 2012
Federal government push to collect on student loans amid bad economy fuels growth in filings
By Jane Musgrave
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Nearly 30 years after graduating from the University of South Florida, William Milner Jr. this year got an unwelcome memento from his college years: the bill.
But this was no ordinary invoice. It was a lawsuit filed by the U.S. government, demanding that the 57-year-old Delray Beach resident repay decades-old student loans. And the government doesn’t just want back the $1,660 Milner borrowed. With interest and attorney fees, Milner’s debt now stands at $7,746.
“The Mafia is in the wrong business,” Milner said. “It’s gotten to such a high amount. I think it’s unreasonable.”
Milner is far from alone.
So far this year, the federal government has filed 139 suits in U.S. District Court in South Florida seeking to recover money from student loans that are years, often decades, old. At that pace, it is likely more than 200 lawsuits will be filed before the year’s out. By comparison, in 2008, 82 lawsuits were filed in the nine-county district that includes Palm Beach County.
“What you’re seeing in South Florida is what’s happening on a broad scale nationally,” said Michelle Asha Cooper, president of the Institute for Higher Education Policy in Washington, D.C.
In 2006, two years before the crippling recession began, the government filed 918 lawsuits against people across the nation who defaulted on student loans. Three years later, 2,596 lawsuits filed. Last year, the number more than doubled to 5,393, she said.
“It’s a reflection of our broader economic woes,” Cooper said. People who are out of work can’t afford to repay their loans. And the government, strapped for cash, needs the money more than ever.
If reforms aren’t enacted, she and others said, the unpaid debt will continue to grow.
Education debt rising
Nationally, the student loan debt is nearly $1 trillion, more than the amount people owe on credit cards. In a report last month, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York agreed it’s getting worse.
Unlike other forms of debt, such as mortgages and home equity lines of credit, education debt is increasing, the report said. Not surprisingly, it also found the number of people who aren’t repaying their loans is on the rise. As of June 30, 8.92 percent of borrowers were at least 90 days late on their payments, up from 8.45 percent in December.
Wonder what the interest payments are on the 1T?
Who gets the payments? Are they sliced and diced like MBS?
Are the loans with parental co-signers a higher grade?