September 7, 2012

Bits Bucket for September 7, 2012

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Comment by Rental Watch
2012-09-07 01:20:54

Yesterday there was a thread on the stimulus, with Northeaster talking about Fed policy when it comes to what has propped up the economy more.

Which made me wonder, which has had a bigger and more lasting effect? The stimulus or Fed Policy?

Stimulus, one-time shot, from Northeastern yesterday:

“$288 billion in [non-permanent]tax cuts.
$224 billion in extended unemployment benefits, education and health care.[this is supposed to cause "job growth"?]
$275 billion for job creation using federal contracts, grants and loans[Growth of the Federal government and government contractors]”

Fed policy dropped long term interest rates by a LOT, allowing lots of people and businesses to refinance, PERMANENTLY lowering their monthly interest cost. This is ongoing stimulus for households and businesses. When you know your mortgage was permanently reduced by x$ per month, it is easy to spend the extra money on a regular basis.

For households, debt service costs peaked at about 14% of disposable personal income in late 2007/early 2008. Now the number is about 11%. I’d like to say that household debt has been reduced substantially, but it’s only been reduced by about 5%, I think, so about 5% of 14% can be attributed to simply there being less debt out there, or about 0.75%.

So as my WAG (wild ___ guess), 14% fell to about 13.25% since there was less debt, and to 11% from lower rates. 2.25% of disposable personal income, with plenty of it a permanent reduction (fixed rate financing).

Per the St. Louis Fed, disposable personal income is at about $11.9 TRILLION annually. 2.25% of $11.9 trillion is about $270 Billion of additional cash annually, for the most part permanently in the hands of households.

And I haven’t even done the math on corporate debt, which is about another $10 Trillion or so (non-financial only). I’m guessing the reduced cost of debt is pretty close to 2% (about the same as households), +/-, so another $200 billion +/-.

So, the stimulus provided ~$750 billion of stimulus, some of which was known to be temporary (tax cuts)–no one decided to upgrade their lives based on temporary additional $. Efficiency of deployment is also a big question, IMHO. I question how much of that $750 actually contributed to the 5% reduction in debt that I note above…some, I’m sure.

The Fed allowed people and businesses to reduce the cost of their debt to the tune of ~$500 billion PER YEAR, much of which was a permanent reduction.

Let me just let that sink in (because this is the first time I’ve done the numbers):

Stimulus: ~$750 Billion, spread over a few years.
Fed Policy: Started small, but grew to ~$500 Billion annually, and is ongoing–

Even ignoring the expansion of the Fed balance sheet, it seems like Fed Policy dwarfs the stimulus. I wonder if Grunwald factors any of this in his praise of the stimulus.

Did I get this right?

P.S. I saw Grunwald on one of the late night talk shows the other day…I was fairly unimpressed. He’s a journalist, not economist, right?

Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-09-07 04:38:53

Early morning Pimpology.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2012-09-07 05:36:52

While your glorious Fed was enabling more debt, did you notice that the cost of feeding a family and driving to those scarcer jobs continued to go up? More disposable income? I don’t think so.

Comment by goon squad
2012-09-07 05:51:10

“Let them eat i-pads” - Federal Reserve bankster William Dudley

Comment by azdude
2012-09-07 06:01:22

printing favors the rich as the lower classes gets the shaft. How far will they run up the stock market before they decide the little people are in for a fleecing again?

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-09-07 06:15:55

I believe they bury their heads in the sand and feign ignorance when it comes to the distributional impacts of their Committee to Save the World rescue schemes, but please post contrary evidence if I missed it.

 
Comment by Bluestar
2012-09-07 10:56:52

When I look at the stock market and who owns it I have come to the conclusion that the public sector owns less than 10% in private accounts and maybe another 15% in pensions, trusts and various mutual funds which they have a claim on but no control on how it’s invested. That leaves 75% in the hands of the top 10% of the population which is even further skewed when you account for the 1% who hold the controlling percent of shares or the more restricted preferred shares. If this is true then the the stock market is more a measure of the economic and political power of the ruling class.

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-09-07 09:14:30

They’re not my “glorious Fed”. I’m just pointing out that the effect of their lower interest rates has a lasting effect on how Americans deal with their debt burdens.

Less disposable income is going to debt=more disposable income available to go elsewhere.

Comment by Hi-Z
2012-09-07 09:22:58

Your analysis completely ignored the loss of return and disposable income to savers because of the artificially low interest rates the Fed forces. The people who lived conservatively and within their means while saving for retirement got the shaft in this deal and I suspect the penalty number far outweighs your “good effect” spin.
Try 4% return on CDs down to 0.1% x FDIC deposits alone.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2012-09-07 13:36:43

However, savers who needed that income to spend moved out of CDs and into other, riskier assets. My parents are a good example. When their CDs closed at higher rates, they didn’t roll them…they moved to dividend paying stocks and other types of debt.

The wealthy and savers got hammered in terms of growing wealth and having income risk-free, but I seriously doubt it negates the effect.

Nothing like taxing the rich and/or prudent to pay off the debts of the poor and/or reckless.

Perversely, this is a drag on young people getting jobs, as the people with the assets who were looking to retire with the CD income can’t.

Overall, I would say that your point does diminish the current effect of the $500B annually, but probably doesn’t eliminate the effect. The big question in my mind is what happens with this $500B when short term rates are higher. Any effect from your point goes away, generally the $500B sticks around.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2012-09-07 14:53:43

However, savers who needed that income to spend moved out of CDs and into other, riskier assets.

I wonder what percentage of the savers this applies to. If they were in CDs in the first place, I seriously doubt they would suddenly transition into riskier assets. If they had that appetite for risk, they would have been in the riskier assets in the first place. Now they’re just getting slowly drained by de facto inflation and low rates of return.

 
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-09-07 18:28:07

“However, savers who needed that income to spend moved out of CDs and into other, riskier assets.”

Nonsense, only the stupid savers push the “Poof” button to chase returns. You know it is possible to get ahead by saving money regardless of returns, I know the “rich dad” workshops will tell you otherwise. Live below your means save during high and low interest rate environments, set yourself free.

Work three jobs or start a small business to accumulate more cash and open up new opportunities. All of that statistical and anecdotal gibberish being posted is meaningless and I hope all of the kids out there reading are aware of that.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2012-09-07 10:21:57

OK. BTW, I think you mean discretionary spending.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-09-07 06:13:38

“Fed Policy: Started small, but grew to ~$500 Billion annually, and is ongoing–”

I believe ‘ongoing’ misstates the Fed’s policy stance, which is actually more of an unlimited guarantee of additional quantitative easing or any other stimulus when and if they deem it necessary. From this position, the Fed’s potential to execute QE3 is everlasting, supporting the cargo cult belief in QE3 without ever requiring execution.

I refer you to the Biblical promise of a Second Coming if this doesn’t clear it up for you.

Comment by Rental Watch
2012-09-07 14:00:34

I think you misunderstand my point. “Ongoing” referred to the reduced debt cost, not the Fed stance.

Fed policy created low mortgage rates. Refinancing from higher fixed rates to lower fixed rates permanently reduces debt burden on the households who refinanced. This is a substantial portion of the $270B annually in the hands of households.

I’m assuming it’s a similar story for the $200B for businesses (refinancing more expensive longer term debt with cheaper longer term debt). Some of the companies who’s stock I own have been frequently announcing such financing efforts (including redeeming more expensive preferred stock in favor of cheaper coupon preferred stock).

If magically, the Fed were to raise rates tomorrow by 300 bps, a substantial portion of that $270B+$200B annually in the hands of households and businesses would still be in place.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-09-07 07:10:48

Sorry rental…that didn’t happen to credit cards…..Ohbewanna took 18 months for the CC act to become law…so banks found so many new ways to jack up rates….Used to be prime +4% now it prime +9.999% or variable….so it will not go down anymore only up with each increase by he FED…

That is the next crisis….when prime goes back to 6-7% like all of you want CC rates climb too…. millions will default….monthly minimum will go up 50% or more

——
Fed policy dropped long term interest rates by a LOT, allowing lots of people and businesses to refinance, PERMANENTLY lowering their monthly interest cost.

Comment by goon squad
2012-09-07 08:07:33

If you’re going to be a debt junkie, at least shop around.

Chase offering the squad 0.0% for 14 months with 2% balance transfer fee. And local credit union CC rate fixed at 8.24% on purchases.

Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 08:15:25

Debt is bad.

Credit cards are for emergencies and rental cars.

If you can’t pay cash - you can’t afford it.

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Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-07 09:09:17

Debt, and making it available at low rate to everyone, is the center piece of Reaganomics.

What’s Romney’s main plank? Undoing the regulation on banks that is preventing the pushing of more debt into the economy.

 
Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 10:15:07

????

Interest rates under Reagan were approaching 20% FOR A MORTGAGE

Debt, and making it available at low rate to everyone, is the center piece of Reaganomics.

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-07 10:42:27

When Reagan came into office, rates were that high. What were they when he left? 9-10%? Prime rate at 8%. 1-year tbill at 6% and falling?

Federal reserve z.1. Total debt 1980: $3.9T. Total debt 1988: $9.4T

Total debt increase during 4 years: (9.4-3.9)/3.9 = 141%

Every president since then has used the same economic philosophy for every economic issue…. lower rates, loosen lending standards, get more debt/money pumping into the economy. Trade imbalances must be funded and that requires new debt/money creation.

 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-09-07 11:01:12

Credit cards are for emergencies and rental cars.

Cash back from our AMEX card = @ $800.00 year.
Interest paid = 0
Card fee = 0

We pay it off every month.
Not too shabby.

 
Comment by polly
2012-09-07 11:53:43

There is ample research showing that on average, people spend more when they use a card for everyday purchases. You may be one of the very few people who don’t do that, but, as a rule, the companies don’t set up programs like that because they are losing money on the deal.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-09-07 08:54:43

ok goon ONE place….only for those with very high fico scores….

I’m talking the average american who had great credit for 20 years then whammo….they need that kind of deal but cant get it.

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Comment by polly
2012-09-07 15:29:17

Have you even tried? Called around?

By the way, if there hadn’t been a substantial period for the transition to happen, the banks would have killed the legislation before it passed. And if they had been given only a short amount of trasition time and it had somehow passed, then they would have upped all their card holders to the maximum allowed by the state’s usury law and then allowed people to apply to get their rates lowered. Attempting to blame the president for the fact that a law that imposed major new requirements on banks had a transition period is simply idiotic.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-09-07 17:20:40

Polly it was the usual half azzed measure…banks cant arbitrarily jack up rates on a whim or computer program..$Shi**ybank and Discover were the worst offenders so there had to be some consumer protections had to be passed.

Has it ever happened to you? your rates go from 8% to 24% and customer service wont tell you any reason for it other then their computer said to.

Almost like Stalag 13 we have information and we cant tell you, so 16% more interest….they pull that privacy BS.

The abuses were legendary…and Ohbewanna just wussied out an gave them 18 months to find ways to increase rates…..so hence the variable rate card was introduced to millions of americans without most of them realizing it.

And old balances can be increased too….so bernake has a lot of CC defaults coming down the pike if he raises rates back up to what you people want.

 
Comment by polly
2012-09-07 20:58:43

You still don’t get it. It was as good a piece of legislation as could be passed. Your relationship with your credit card company is a private contract. If you don’t like it, you can get out of it. All you have to do is pay off the card and stop buying stuff.

And, no, it hasn’t happened to me. I choose to do business with banks that treat their customers well. And I think I’ve only carried a balance over a month once or twice in my life anyway. What do I care what the interest rate it? I usually pay it off before the cycle closes.

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-09-07 09:24:54

The debt burden reduction includes all debt. CC debt represents <10% of the total, so while CC companies may have jacked up rates, it was more than made up by debt cost reduction elsewhere.

BTW, I didn’t do the math to in some way defend the Fed, I did it so that people will think critically about how much the stimulus helped vs. the political lines being fed during political speeches. I personally think that this extra $500B sloshing around in the economy will be a driver of inflation once velocity of money kicks up…the Fed can’t dial back this effect quickly by raising rates.

Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-09-07 18:30:03

Haha, you wish, that is the only thing that will save your bacon.

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Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-09-07 07:18:01

Deja vu all over again.

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-07 08:43:59

Extending unemployment benefits is not intended to create jobs. It is simply intended to short-circuit the negative feedback loop. People lose jobs, spend less, stores with fewer customers lay of, more unemployment, more spending decline, more layoffs.

UI payments keeps the unemployed people spending.

As far as the difference between stimulus and Fed, Fed saving $500B in interest payments cuts both expenses to one entity and income to another entity. On the other hand, government spending is just increasing incomes without any offsetting with drain.

And that is the real difference. Fed can lower interest rates in an attempt to get people borrowing, but the private sector isn’t borrowing new money into existence. Households are walking from debt far faster than businesses are adding debt.

This leaves the government as the borrower of last resort, and that is where stimulus comes in. With stimulus, we pushed what would have been $700B year deficit to something closer to $1.2T… the amount we need to replace the money that leaks from the economy.

As stimulus ended,we replaced it with the 2% SS tax cut and some other deficit increasing measures, along with SS and MC expenses rapidly increasing and tax receipts falling, make sure the annual deficits stayed close to $1.2T a year.

And we need $1.2T a year new debt/money every year.

So, stimulus and Fed have gone hand-in-hand.

Stimulus exploded budget deficits when we really needed the extra debt/money creation, and the Fed is holding down borrowing costs so that the federal government can keep creating the $1.2T new debt/money we need without having interest on the debt absorb a huge chunk of or annual budget.

Comment by Rental Watch
2012-09-07 10:00:07

The primary debt where cost was reduced what mortgage debt.

Who held that debt?

Some was held by entities where the income dictates spending…somewhat negating the effect…sure.

However, plenty of that debt was held by entities that doesn’t have their current spending dictated by income (the very wealthy, pension funds, endowments, foundations, etc.). IMHO, reducing their current income generally does not tend to reduce their current spending–the correlation is certainly weaker than, for households, where reducing debt burden is akin to a tax cut.

BTW, I didn’t include the reduction of debt cost for financial institutions in my math.

 
 
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-09-07 09:09:47

My commentary on the FED and it’s use of the American People as pavlovian dogs is in the Weekend thread. I won’t repeat it here.

 
Comment by SUGuy
2012-09-07 11:31:58

I will give a grade of F on this report

Comment by Rental Watch
2012-09-07 12:33:21

Is the math wrong?

Comment by SUGuy
2012-09-07 13:13:46

No but it is fuzzy

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Comment by Rental Watch
2012-09-07 13:47:12

Of course it’s fuzzy, that’s why I called it a WAG and asked for feedback…

 
 
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-09-07 18:37:15

“Is the math wrong?”

Math? How about twenty paragraphs full of worthless jive?

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Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-09-07 04:48:00

Sept. 5, 2012, 4:16 p.m. EDT

Why is Putin stockpiling gold?
Commentary: Russia is bulking up its gold reserve

By Brett Arends
I can’t imagine it means anything cheerful that Vladimir Putin, the Russian czar, is stockpiling gold as fast as he can get his hands on it.

According to the World Gold Council, Russia has more than doubled its gold reserves in the past five years. Putin has taken advantage of the financial crisis to build the world’s fifth-biggest gold pile in a handful of years, and is buying about half a billion dollars’ worth every month.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-is-putin-stockpiling-gold-2012-09-05 - 149k -

Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 07:43:04

Why is Putin stockpiling gold?

It’s a simple answer, really:

He is stockpiling because gold is cheap relative to the amount of money supply in existence and that a global monetary intervention is underway. China announced new rounds of stimulus this week and the ECB announced unlimited bond buying. With the jobs number coming in well below expectations, QE3 is most likely a done deal, in which case we’ll have easing from the three largest economies in the world.

Alternatively, it could be in preparation for the end of the dollar as the global reserve currency. What would precipitate that in the near term? A Republican Presidential win would create a lame-duck president and Congress leading into the end of the year and the “fiscal cliff”. Add to that Russia explicitly warning the world not to attack Iran, and it is clear that Israel and it’s US ally is preparing to attack after the election. If the conflict escalates [it is already quite hot in Syria], that could be the final nail in the coffin of US dollar hegemony.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-09-07 08:19:33

“Alternatively, it could be in preparation for the end of the dollar as the global reserve currency.”

Very forward looking of Vladya…

Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 08:23:01

Everything works in cycles. We’ve had purely fiat currencies for 40 years. Prior to that, we had gold-backed currencies. When this latest regime of fiat ends, there will be no faith in paper and countries will have to resort to some sort of metal/commodity basket backing.

The countries with the strongest reserves [not to mention natural resources] will be the countries with the strongest currencies and economies.

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Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-09-07 09:30:46

Fiat currencies are a relatively new creation. Paper “money” was instituted with banksters providing certificates of gold held in their bank and were treated as “money”.
However, currency debasement is NOT a new thing. When Rome began it’s decline the emperor’s tried numerous ways to keep up the State expenses. The Denarius was a Silver
coin of a particular size and weight.
First, they started skimming. Then, like the CLAD silver coins from the 1960’s here in the US, they started missing in base metals.
Later they become Copper and Bronze. The empire collapsed under the weight of it’s debts and lack of new slaves and territories to continue the building.
It hurt quite a bit when the Vandals finally destroyed their water supplies, but the devaluation of the “money” was well underway before the final collapse.
The FED is the conjurer of CLAD and no-value coins and money.

 
Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 11:21:02

As someone else mentioned previously, where did the phrase “Not worth a Continental” come from?

Fiat [and currency debasement] is nothing new…

 
Comment by cactus
2012-09-07 12:23:49

The FED is the conjurer of CLAD and no-value coins and money.

If money debasment is true and inevitable why does anyone want to hold dollars instead of RE ?

just wondering ?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-09-07 12:52:44

Inflation hedges come in many forms. Sometimes real estate can be purchased at a price that makes it a good hedge. Sometimes not.

Some people prefer other assets as inflation hedges (precious metals, commodities, etc.).

A benefit to real estate is that if it is a relevant asset in its market (ie. can provide utility to people/businesses in the market), you can be paid rent while you wait.

With other inflation hedges, you generally pay to wait (storage costs, etc.).

 
Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 13:51:07

If money debasment is true and inevitable why does anyone want to hold dollars instead of RE ?

I posted this before, but a lawyer friend of my dad from a very prominent family in my town once said to him “You better have land and you better have gold. If you don’t, then you’ve got nothing.” This was said by him back in the 80’s…

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-09-07 14:08:11

My partner’s father did very well in real estate. In the 70’s in response to inflation, he bought gold to go along with his real estate.

I haven’t done the math recently, but for the better part of 3 decades, the real estate did a FAR better job keeping up with inflation. On a cumulative basis, I’m willing to bet that it is still far ahead (at that time, gold was ~$600-$800 per oz.).

 
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
2012-09-07 14:27:58

In response to the Real estate vs. cash question.
First, you can’t spend real estate. Try and do it next time you need a tank of gas. Non-negotiable or better ILLIquid.

SEcond, right now we are still go through the re-adjustment to the mania of FREE money financing for real estate. It has been going down to more “marketable” prices. Not a good bet until you can see a long year of steady price increases.
It is also TAXABLE, so you are guaranteed to lose money if it is not a rental, and if you have a mortgage, you have insurance.
There are a lot of expensed to owning property, unless it’s vacant land.

Last, people are suffering from too much debt and not enough income. That makes people afraid to do much financially, so they would rather have cash in their mattress.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by polly
2012-09-07 05:37:36

And….here are the fact check articles. I’ll put them under this as a top post. Personally, I didn’t watch Biden and kept an ear open on the President. Mostly I was booking some vacation tickets, but it seemed OK to me. The structure was a little sloppy, but stump speeches often are and that is really what a convention speech is.

Comment by polly
2012-09-07 05:42:23

[To heck with picking just one or two bits of the whole article. I rarely do this, but here is the whole article. The two speeches are both covered in one article.]

Fact checking Obama’s and Biden’s speeches at the Democratic convention in Charlotte
Posted by Glenn Kessler at 06:02 AM ET, 09/07/2012

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/fact-checking-obamas-and-bidens-speeches-at-the-democratic-convention-in-charlotte/2012/09/07/ef79e0b6-f8a0-11e1-8b93-c4f4ab1c8d13_blog.html?hpid=z3

In their defense of the administration’s policies Thursday night, President Obama and Vice President Biden sometimes took license with the facts or left out important information. Here are some highlights.

“Independent analysis shows that my plan would cut our deficits by $4 trillion. Last summer, I worked with Republicans in Congress to cut $1 trillion in spending.”

— Obama

President Obama repeated a claim made by former President Bill Clinton the night before, but even less accurately. Clinton referred to a “plan of $4 trillion in debt reduction over a decade.” Obama leaves off the time line, and makes it sound like the current $1 trillion deficit would be eliminated, resulting in a surplus.

But, while the numbers seem large, the results are unimpressive. At the end of the 10-year budget window, Obama would have the national debt at a 76.5 percent of gross domestic product. That actually would be an increase over the 74.2 percent of GDP in this year. In contrast, the debt reduction plan envisioned by the Simpson-Bowles commission — cited by the president — would reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio close to 60 percent.

Moreover, independent analysts have criticized the administration for claiming some $800 billion in phantom savings from winding down the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, even though the administration had long made clear those wars would end. (The Bush administration had started the wars on borrowed funds.) Then, the president proposes to spend a good chunk of the nonexistent money on other spending — as he put it in his speech, “rebuilding roads and bridges; schools and runways.”

The $1 trillion in savings negotiated with Republicans, mentioned by the president, actually accounts for the bulk of his proposed reduction in spending. Indeed, much of the president’s debt reduction would come from tax increases on the wealthy, not spending cuts.

“I’ve signed trade agreements that are helping our companies sell more goods to millions of new customers.”

— Obama

Obama did sign into law new trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama — which were negotiated by the George W. Bush administration. The trade deals were held up for months by a bitter dispute between the administration and Congress over restoring aid for workers hurt by free trade.

Obama has not negotiated any other free-trade agreements.

“We will keep the promise of Social Security by taking the responsible steps to strengthen it — not by turning it over to Wall Street.”

— Obama

This is a bit of straw man. Obama’s rival, Mitt Romney, briefly supported private accounts as part of Social Security in the 2008 campaign but no longer does.

In his 2010 book, “No Apology,” Romney makes it clear that the 2008 stock market turmoil had changed his thinking on the issue. “The 2008 stock market collapse is proof, however, that we can’t always count on positive returns from these investments,” Romney writes. He said individual accounts could still be considered but would need to be phased in over time. Most important, he added, “I would prefer that individual accounts were added to Social Security, not diverted from it, and that they were voluntary.” (See page 160.)

In other words, Romney has concluded that mandatory private accounts won’t work. The plan he supports now is strikingly similar to what then-Vice President Al Gore proposed in the 2000 presidential campaign, what Gore dubbed “Social Security Plus.” Gore said the accounts would be voluntary and “not be the product of any reduction or diversion of Social Security revenues.”

Meanwhile, Obama’s recent budgets have had limited Social Security reforms.

“Barack, as a young man, they had to sit at the end of his mother’s hospital bed, and watch her fight with their insurance company at the very same time that she was fighting for her life.”

— Biden

This is a carefully worded statement that suggests President Obama’s mother, Stanley Ann Dunham, was fighting for health coverage while she was dying. This is a story that Obama frequently told on the campaign trail, but which was later called into question by Dunham’s biographer. Note that Biden does not specify that Dunham was fighting “health insurance” companies.

During the 2008 campaign, Obama frequently suggested his mother had to fight with her health-insurance company for treatment of her cancer because it considered her disease to be a pre-existing condition.

In one of the presidential debates with GOP rival John McCain, Obama said: “For my mother to die of cancer at the age of 53 and have to spend the last months of her life in the hospital room arguing with insurance companies because they’re saying that this may be a pre-existing condition and they don’t have to pay her treatment, there’s something fundamentally wrong about that.”

But then earlier this year, journalist Janny Scott cast serious doubt on this version of events in her biography, “A Singular Woman: The Untold Story of Barack Obama’s mother.” Scott reviewed letters from Dunham to the CIGNA insurance company, and revealed the dispute was over disability coverage, not health insurance coverage. (See pages 335-339).

Disability coverage will help replace wages lost to an illness. (Dunham received a base pay of $82,500, plus a housing allowance and a car, to work in Indonesia for Development Alternatives Inc. of Bethesda.) But that is different than health insurance coverage denied because of a pre-existing condition, which was a major part of the president’s health care law.

Biden’s remarks were echoed in the film that aired before Obama spoke. The clips were drawn from a film originally narrated by Tom Hanks — this one was by George Clooney — and we had previously given Three Pinocchios to the film for the manipulative way this story is retold.

“He [Romney] was willing to let Detroit go bankrupt.”

— Biden

This statement is drawn from a headline — “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt” — on an opinion article written by Romney for The New York Times. But he did not say that in the article. (He repeated the line, however, on television.)

Although “bankrupt” often conjures up images of liquidation, Romney called for a “managed bankruptcy.” This is a process in which the company uses the bankruptcy code to discharge its debts, but emerges from the process a leaner, less leveraged company.

Ultimately, along with getting nearly $80 billion in loans and other assistance from the Bush and Obama administrations, GM and Chrysler did go through a managed bankruptcy. But many independent analysts have concluded that taking the approach recommended by Romney would not have worked in 2008, simply because the credit markets were so frozen that a bankruptcy was not a viable option at the time.

“What they didn’t tell you is what they’re [the Romney campaign] proposing would cause Medicare to go bankrupt by 2016.”

— Biden

It is highly misleading to use the phrase “bankrupt.”

There are different parts of Medicare, much of which is paid from general revenues and premiums. Part A, which pays hospitals, has a “trust fund,” made up of special-issue Treasury bonds, that always seems to be on the edge of running dry, even though it is funded by a payroll tax paid by employees and employers. But even so, the payroll tax could pay most estimated expenditures for decades.

“As a matter of fact, he has a new tax proposal — the territorial tax — that experts say will create 800,000 jobs, all of them overseas.”

— Biden

Biden is quoting from one disputed study.

At issue is a Romney proposal, as part of a corporate tax reform, to allow foreign profits by corporations to be exempt from domestic tax. The Simpson-Bowles deficit-reduction Commission, frequently cited by Democrats and Republicans, recommended such a system in its report. “A territorial tax system should be adopted to help put the U.S. system in line with other countries, leveling the playing field,” the report said.

The study cited by Biden, which appeared in Tax Notes, did not actually study Romney’s plan. Moreover, it said that such a system would create 800,000 jobs overseas, but not necessarily at the expense of U.S. jobs if unemployment rates are low.

“Governor Romney believes that it’s okay to raise taxes on the middle class by $2,000 in order to pay for over a trillion dollars in tax cuts for the very wealthy.”

— Biden

The vice president is referring to an estimate of the impact of Romney’s tax plan by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center. Romney has provided few details of his plan, which he says would lower tax rates while eliminating tax loopholes. The Tax Policy Center calculated that the only way to make the plan revenue neutral would be to eliminate tax preferences that also benefit the middle class, but the Romney campaign has fiercely disputed its findings.

Romney has insisted he would not allow a tax increase on the middle class, so if the findings are correct, he would have to scale back his plan to make the math work.

(As is our practice, we generally do not award Pinocchio ratings in these instant round-ups.)

 
Comment by polly
2012-09-07 05:46:27

And here is the Wonkblog fact check of the President’s speech. This group doesn’t have anything up on Biden’s speech yet. There are a few charts in the article that didn’t cut and paste (obviously) so if it reads as if something is missing, check the link.

Fact-checking Obama’s speech

Posted by Suzy Khimm, Sarah Kliff, and Dylan Matthews on September 7, 2012 at 12:09 am

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/09/07/fact-checking-obamas-speech/

President Obama’s big moment came tonight as he accepted the Democratic nomination for reelection in Charlotte. But did his assertions check out? The Wonkteam looked into it.

TRUE – By 2008, we had seen nearly a decade in which families struggled with costs that kept rising but paychecks that didn’t; racking up more and more debt just to make the mortgage or pay tuition; to put gas in the car or food on the table.

Census Data suggests that median household income fell by $1,005 between 1998 and 2008, when you adjust for inflation. So Obama’s claim checks out there. Here’s what consumer credit looks like from 1998 to 2008:

As Obama said, it grew considerably.

TRUE – Now, I’ve cut taxes for those who need it – middle-class families and small businesses.
Obama has indeed cut taxes on 95 percent of Americans, and, among many other initiatives, passed the HIRE Act which cut taxes on small businesses who hire and retain workers.

DEBATABLE – But I don’t believe that another round of tax breaks for millionaires will bring good jobs to our shores, or pay down our deficit.

It’s almost certainly true that high-income tax breaks do not raise growth enough to pay for themselves in deficit terms. But do they help growth period? That’s debatable. On capital gains taxes in particular, economists disagree about whether having low rates spur investment and thus growth, even if those rates disproportionately affect low-income people. Some, like Nobel laureate Peter Diamond and Emmanuel Saez, have argued that high marginal tax rates in general do not harm growth. Berkeley’s Christina Romer has conducted research that suggests there are some positive effects on growth of cuts in marginal tax rates, but that these effects are fairly mild. Harvard’s Marty Feldstein, by contrast, has argued that higher marginal tax rates are associated with lower growth.

TRUE – I don’t believe that firing teachers or kicking students off financial aid will grow the economy, or help us compete with the scientists and engineers coming out of China.

The evidence suggests that cutting education is extremely bad for long-run growth, as it leads to higher class sizes which in turn depress students’ lifetime wages. The cuts during the recession have been estimated by the Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project to cost almost $100 billion in future earnings by students.

TRUE WITH A BUT – I’ve worked with business leaders who are bringing jobs back to America – not because our workers make less pay, but because we make better products. Because we work harder and smarter than anyone else.

Obama did indeed hold an “insourcing” forum earlier this year devoted to businesses who move jobs back to the US. But the focus on this can be misleading because, as James K. Jackson of the Congressional Research Service has pointed out, there is no evidence to suggest that outsourcing or insourcing has much of an effect on the overall rate of employment.

TRUE WITH A BUT – I’ve signed trade agreements that are helping our companies sell more goods to millions of new customers – goods that are stamped with three proud words: Made in America.

Obama did sign three free trade agreements last year, with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama. But he has not negotiated new ones, and those three deals were held up for the first years of his term, in part due to Obama’s demands that they be accompanied by adjustment assistance for workers displaced by trade. The Doha round of WTO negotiations has also stagnated under Obama, to the dismay of international development specialists who wanted him to push harder to eliminate restrictions on poor countries.

TRUE – After a decade of decline, this country created over half a million manufacturing jobs in the last two and a half years.

True when Bill Clinton said it last night, true now.

TRUE – After thirty years of inaction, we raised fuel standards so that by the middle of the next decade, cars and trucks will go twice as far on a gallon of gas.

Again, stated by Clinton, and correct: the Obama administration has doubled fuel efficiency standards.

TRUE WITH A (GOOD) BUT – We’ve doubled our use of renewable energy, and thousands of Americans have jobs today building wind turbines and long-lasting batteries.

As Michael Grunwald pointed out on Twitter, this way undersells what happened to green energy under Obama. Wind energy doubled, but solar grew over 600 percent. 85,000 Americans work in wind energy, and in 2010, 5,918 people worked on battery production for electric cars and other renewable energy projects.

TRUE WITH A (GOOD) BUT – In the last year alone, we cut oil imports by one million barrels a day – more than any administration in recent history.

Here’s how crude oil imports look since the 1980s:

Source: Energy Information Agency

Under Obama they’ve gone down by 2.45 million barrels a day, using the most recent figures. As with solar energy, Obama actually undersells the numbers here. By contrast, under Reagan they went up by about 1.4 million barrels a day, 751,000 under Bush I, 2.76 million under Clinton, and 1.1 million under Bush II. Obama is the only recent president to cut imports.

TRUE WITH A BUT – And today, the United States of America is less dependent on foreign oil than at any time in nearly two decades.

That’s true if you include all energy sources. As Brad has noted, natural gas production and domestic oil production are booming so the US is getting very close to energy independence in coming decades. But if you look at just oil, the case is trickier. The US has definitely made strides under Obama, but 20 years ago the gap between domestic oil production and imports was less than it is today:

TRUE - We’ve opened millions of new acres for oil and gas exploration in the last three years, and we’ll open more.

The Obama administration has opened additional land for oil and gas exploration. In January, the Department of Interior announced a deal to lease 38 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico for oil exploration.

TRUE - For the first time in a generation, nearly every state has answered our call to raise their standards for teaching and learning.

This refers to Race to the Top, the Obama administration’s biggest K-12 education policy. That program aimed to bring more uniformity to teaching standards across the country. Here’s how our colleague Michael Fletcher put it in 2010: “48 states and the District…joined in an effort to develop a common core of rigorous educational standards to replace the current system in which states have wildly different benchmarks for what should be taught in school.”

No Child Left Behind, a policy developed under Pres. George W. Bush, also encouraged more standardization in teacher evaluations. Academics were concerned, however, that the structure of the program could encourage schools to develop standards that were weaker rather than more rigorous.

TRUE - Millions of students are paying less for college today because we finally took on a system that wasted billions of taxpayer dollars on banks and lenders.

An executive order last year reduced the amount of discretionary income that students would be required to pay on student loan debt.

TRUE WITH A BUT – “And while my opponent would spend more money on military hardware that our Joint Chiefs don’t even want, I’ll use the money we’re no longer spending on war to pay down our debt and put more people back to work – rebuilding roads and bridges; schools and runways.”

The Department of Defense’s budget request for Fiscal Year 2013 was indeed below what Romney said he’d spend. But whether the DoD’s Joint Chiefs of Staff would have wanted more money than they requested, if they were encouraged to do so under a different administration, is a different question.

It’s true that Obama’s jobs plan would entail more investment in infrastructure and schools.

TRUE – “After two wars that have cost us thousands of lives and over a trillion dollars…”

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost more than $1.37 trillion, according to the National Priorities Project. Over 6,500 US service members have died in the wars.

TRUE – Independent analysis shows that my plan would cut our deficits by $4 trillion. Last summer, I worked with Republicans in Congress to cut $1 trillion in spending…

According to the CBO, the Obama budget reduces the deficit relative to current policy from $10.9 trillion over ten years to $6.3 trillion, a reduction of $4.6 trillion. But those figures include some measures, such as war savings, that other analysts don’t want to count as a real deficit reduction.

MISLEADING - I want to reform the tax code so that it’s simple,fair, and asks the wealthiest households to pay higher taxes on incomes over $250,000 – the same rate we had when Bill Clinton was president….

It’s true that Obama has proposed to let the Bush tax cuts expire for incomes over $250,000, bringing them back to Clinton-era rates. However, his plan would also preserve the Bush tax cuts for all income below that threshold — that is, the first $250,000 that anyone makes, even their total income is above it, as Ezra explains. Obama also proposes changes to deductions and other parts of the tax cuts that would also raise tax rates for the wealthy, above what they were paying under Clinton. So while the individual rate for income over $250,000 would return to pre-Bush levels, the overall tax rate for these wealthy individuals would be higher than what they were paying before.

TRUE – “…when Bill Clinton was president, the same rate we had when our economy created nearly 23 million new jobs, the biggest surplus in history, and a lot of millionaires to boot.”

During the Clinton years, 22.7 million jobs were created, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The largest surplus in history was $236 billion in fiscal year 2000, when Clinton was still in office, although the raw numbers aren’t always the best measure over time.

TRUE – You’re the reason there’s a little girl with a heart disorder in Phoenix who’ll get the surgery she needs because an insurance company can’t limit her coverage. You did that.

This refers to Zoe Lyhn, the 3-year-old girl featured in a video on the first night of the Democratic condition. The Affordable Care Act ended lifetime limits on coverage a provision estimated to affect 105 million Americans with private insurance coverage.

TRUE – You’re the reason a young immigrant who grew up here and went to school here and pledged allegiance to our flag will no longer be deported from the only country she’s ever called home.

This refers to Obama’s executive order stopping deportations for illegal immigrants who grew up here. While the legal status of such immigrants is nebulous, especially if Romney wins, the claim here is essentially correct.

Comment by aNYCdj
2012-09-07 07:12:56

Polly

If there is no real difference between them ….then which color do you vote for?

Comment by polly
2012-09-07 08:11:58

There are many differences between them. If you can’t figure out which way I will vote, then I won’t deprive you of the chance to speculate.

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Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-09-07 09:37:21

If you get your “facts” from the Washington Post, then you are an Obama supporter. WaPo is a Democrat support team.

 
Comment by Bluestar
2012-09-07 12:37:56

Diogenes, there is no honesty in this world. Try something like mathematics where the language (i.e. numbers) can’t be subverted or chemistry where the elements and their reactions are bound by physics.

You might as well dump your screen name. Ain’t gonna happen.

 
 
Comment by Salinasron
2012-09-07 08:23:50

You split your vote for gridlock. You vote for those who take away less of your freedoms. Don’t spend time watching the front runner but watch the actions (dirty tricks) behind the scenes.

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Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-09-07 18:33:40

Holy long winded posts batman!

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Comment by Red Heifer
2012-09-07 07:30:40

Ezra Klein fact checking Obma is like…..

Isn’t there a conflict of interest or something like that?

Comment by Bluestar
2012-09-07 12:51:28

Ezra Klein fact checking Obma is like….. Judith Miller revealing the truth behind Iraq WMD?

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Comment by Montana
2012-09-07 08:47:56

“as it leads to higher class sizes which in turn depress students’ lifetime wages.”

I don’t get that one.

Comment by oxide
2012-09-07 09:04:22

HIgher class size = less attention = less likely to further education ==> lifetime of lucky ducky work.

But there’s a huge flaw in all this. They are working under the assumption that college –> good job, automatically. Outsourcing has destroyed that assumption. Even if all the kids graduated with skillz and no debt, there wouldn’t be enough jobs for them.

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-07 14:05:34

Even if all the kids graduated with skillz and no debt, there wouldn’t be enough jobs for them.

Correct, if they all majored in STEM there wouldn’t be enough jobs for them. Heck there are barely enough STEM jobs now, and the kids have been avoiding STEM majors like the plague.

 
Comment by Avocado
2012-09-07 19:28:16

funny you mention plagues, solution?

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-09-07 09:29:05

“MISLEADING - I want to reform the tax code so that it’s simple,fair, and asks the wealthiest households to pay higher taxes on incomes over $250,000 – the same rate we had when Bill Clinton was president….”

And in the next sentence he said he still wanted to make a deal consistent with Simpson Bowles, which proposes a completely different direction on tax code.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2012-09-07 05:53:27

I watched about half of Biden and all of Obama. Biden was a little sloppy, but when isn’t he? NBC called Obama’s speech “workmanlike,” and I agree.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-09-07 06:17:27

“Personally, I didn’t watch Biden…”

I heard a little of his speech, but then my wife got in the car and made me turn it off. I didn’t hesitate. The guy is not quite Mr Charisma.

Comment by michael
2012-09-07 06:19:58

he makes me feel icky.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-09-07 06:24:43

Debt pimps should make you feel icking….. and defensive. And there was a whole lot of Debt Slavery pimping going on last night.

Sorry if any of you missed.

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Comment by aNYCdj
2012-09-07 07:27:36

Biden was put there so Ohbewanna is kept alive….and so far it worked.

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Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 07:54:10

I like Biden. He is an honest, hard working politician [as honest as politicians go]. He has the least net worth of anyone in Congress [less bought and paid for]. He also has a son who is a major in the Army Reserves and who was deployed to Iraq. I think Biden might be the only member of Congress to have children in the military and in a war zone… kind of colors his temperament regarding military action in Pakistan to kill OBL.

If I were to vote for the Democratic ticket, it would be because Biden is on the ticket, not Obama…

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Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-09-07 09:46:10

That is the most important indicator of how a politician will do in an election. Very few people will remember most of what any politician tells them. They will recall how they made them “feel”.
For all the intellectualizing of the political theater, there is very little in policy that will move the public, no matter how compelling the arguments. People will vote for the man that makes them feel good, especially about themselves.

That was a very good tactic that Obama’s speechwriters used at the closing of his speech…..It’s ALL about YOU.
YOU made this Happen> YOU are the success story of America.
YOU are in charge. YOu can make it happen.
It makes you feel important.
It makes you feel like a winner. It is a good tactic and it will be remembered by ALL if not most of his supporters.
Making people feel good sells. Telling them the seriousness of the situation only makes them feel bad and trust you less.

Sell them on you. Make them feel good.
If Biden made you feel icky, then he failed to connect and you have a negative opinion of him. It can effect the outcome.

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Comment by michael
2012-09-07 12:33:20

my rational mind does not allow me to “fall in love” with any political figure.

people who faint and cry at these speeches whether democrat or repbublican are ubelievable to me.

i can understand the mob mentality to some extent.

i did experiment once with the and i must admit it can be exhilirating if you “let yourself go”. the result of my experiment is i “fell in love” with baseball.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-09-07 12:53:55

That is the most important indicator of how a politician will do in an election. Very few people will remember most of what any politician tells them. They will recall how they made them “feel”.

I think that’s generally true. People who are mystified about why Reagan is looked back on fondly by part of the population don’t understand that or didn’t realize how good he was at it with at least some people. Palin has some of the same skill but only with a much narrower group, so she was unable to pull off a Reagan.

 
Comment by oxide
2012-09-07 15:17:09

people who faint and cry at these speeches whether democrat or repbublican are ubelievable to me.

And hardly representitive. There are probably only a few hundred people in the entire country who are ultra-enthusiastic enough to cry at these speeches. And surprise surprise, if they are enthusiastic enough to cry, then they are enthusiastic enough to be at the convention, and visible enough to be picked to be on TV.

Selection bias strikes again.

 
 
 
Comment by Red Heifer
2012-09-07 06:34:40

The guy is not quite Mr Charisma.

Really? I like Biden. Of course he is a blow hard all of them are, but Biden is little crazy and fun.

I like my politicians crazy and women crazier.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-09-07 08:23:03

It was a first impression. I don’t think I have ever heard him give a speech before.

But other than the charisma factor, I agree with the points made above regarding his character.

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Comment by CRATER
2012-09-07 06:14:30

The house before you buy

http://etc.usf.edu/clipart/3900/3950/house_1_lg.gif

And here’s your house after you buy

http://www.sinkholeattorneylongwood.com/sinkhole-longwood-fla.jpg

CRAAAAAAATER…..

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-09-07 06:22:11

Is this commentator unduly pessimistic? It seems like the coordinated action by central bankers around the world has stock markets rocketing up everywhere. Isn’t this the time to buy?

Sept. 7, 2012, 12:02 a.m. EDT
Who said ‘sell in May and go away’?
Commentary: Success of this pattern depends on September
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The stock market’s strong showing, especially in light of the good news out of Europe on Thursday, is making some investors want to kick themselves for “selling In May and going away.”

They’re being too hard on themselves. There are nearly two months left in the infamous six-month unfavorable period that such investors tried to sidestep, and that’s more than enough time for a lot of nastiness.

In the meantime, though, it’s easy to see why such investors are frustrated. Though the stock market did fall almost immediately after May Day, it has exhibited impressive strength from its early-summer low.

In the wake of Thursday’s huge rally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA +1.87%) is now 0.6% above where it was at the close on April 30, and the S&P 500 (SPX +2.04%) is 2.4% ahead. The Nasdaq Composite (COMP +2.17%) has done even better, and is 2.9% ahead.

 
Comment by Muggy
2012-09-07 06:41:22

It makes me uncomfortable that education is the center piece of Romney and Owheebanaba’s (that’s for you, DJ) platforms.

I’ve said it here many times: with many other industries dead, education is the last lump for the bankstas, I mean Patriotic Politicians© to get their snouts in.

Comment by Muggy
2012-09-07 06:53:59

BTW, it was hilarious to see Charlie Crist succinctly wrap-up Florida: medicare, tourists and building houses.

 
Comment by michael
2012-09-07 07:00:40

+1

Comment by michael
2012-09-07 07:33:52

on second thought…they will probably figure a way to securitize future healthcare costs.

Comment by Muggy
2012-09-07 07:38:59

And call it “reform.”

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Comment by WT Economist
2012-09-07 08:10:49

“It makes me uncomfortable that education is the center piece of Romney and Owheebanaba’s (that’s for you, DJ) platforms.”

It’s stupid. The federal role in education is small — it doesn’t provide it, and provide only a small share of the money to pay for it. It is a state and local issue.

Federal government = senior citizens, health care, defense, income security. A little infrastructure and business regulation. Debt. And how to pay for it.

Kind of like your local city council member bloviating on foreign affairs (happens all the time NYC).

Comment by michael
2012-09-07 10:02:27

doesn’t the federal goverment guarantee student loans?

 
Comment by Montana
2012-09-07 12:34:55

The K-12 schools have sure become hooked on federal money. It is about 10% of our education budget here and the only reason school districts tolerated NCLB.

 
 
 
Comment by Muggy
2012-09-07 06:57:40
 
Comment by Young Deezy
2012-09-07 08:34:48

A true HBB classic!

 
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-09-07 09:51:25

That clip was my favorite for the disclosure of what the National Association of Realtors represents…… a hive of low-life money grubbing skimmers that want to make a sale, no matter how BAD the result is for the buyer. This skit was at the Height of the Bubble and prices were ridiculous…..so the Realtor is going to “get to work” to “get them in”. Poor bastard.

If you are “underwater” in an overpriced house, thank a Realtor.

 
Comment by rms
2012-09-07 12:04:06

“I love that house.”

What?!? (rattlesnake twitch) :)

 
 
Comment by Muggy
2012-09-07 07:00:08

And don’t forget that US Real Estate Roller Coaster from 2007
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUldGc06S3U

Comment by eastcoaster
2012-09-07 11:37:41

I love that. Wish someone would continue it to present.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-09-07 22:26:03

That was what I was thinking. Such a bummer to be stuck forever on top of such a high roller coaster!

 
 
 
Comment by Itsabouttime
2012-09-07 07:20:12

Checked in late yesterday and saw once again an attack on that bastion of higher learning, the Electoral College. Wrote this, and repeat it here (with term change for clarity) because we really need to get the word out–dumping the Electoral College would be a disaster!

The note from late last night:

Dumping the Electoral College (EC) is another of those ideas that get floated by people who haven’t really analyzed the complex implications of what appear to be simple changes. And I thought Californians had a monopoly on destructively wolfish ideas in sheep’s clothing.

Here’s one important aspect one must bring into any comparison of the EC and the popular vote (PV). If you have PV, a vote anywhere can cancel another vote anywhere. This, therefore, would be a disaster.

Say you have California, where democrats control much of the state government. Thus, California democrats can allow or even engage in election fraud, pumping up the numbers of votes for the democratic nominee. Now, California election officials can do that now, but, really, what would be the point. The democrat is going to win California, and so why waste energy and risk prison to pad a win that is already guaranteed?

In other words, the EC destroys the incentive of election fraud for President in every place where a party has enough control to succeed in the fraud.

In toss-up states, the parties are pretty evenly matched, so election fraud is harder.

I know its a big assumption to assume we now mostly have legitimate elections. But dumping the EC for PV is to assure we will never have another legitimate election.

IAT

Comment by Red Heifer
2012-09-07 07:41:54

Interesting perspective. Thanks.

 
Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-09-07 08:11:44

It’s About Time TV series open - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1G-TsdNWGg - 155k

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-09-07 08:28:47

I am happy I raised the issue, and I did get my desired result, which was a great discussion with some excellent comments from folks who understand the politics of the electoral college system far better than I do.

“The democrat is going to win California, and so why waste energy and risk prison to pad a win that is already guaranteed?

In other words, the EC destroys the incentive of election fraud for President in every place where a party has enough control to succeed in the fraud.

In toss-up states, the parties are pretty evenly matched, so election fraud is harder.”

And for a counter-perspective, consider that the existence of only a few swing states needed to tip the national election is exactly what opens the door to fraud. If set up properly, a national democratic election would seem to be far more robust against vote fraud.

Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-07 09:19:57

I agree. The very real fact that my vote does not count right now is of MUCH greater concern to me than the possibility of voter fraud without the EC.

Looking at the possibility of fraud now, a few thousand fake votes in Ohio could swing the whole national election, whereas it would take hundreds of thousands, or millions of fraudulent votes without the EC.

Comment by michael
2012-09-07 10:19:55

you only think your vote doesn’t count because you don’t get your desired result.

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Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-07 10:50:08

I think my vote doesn’t count because the Republicans could nominate a ham sandwich, and AZ would still go 60/40 for the ham sandwich.

As for the vote not going my way, I’ve voted for a grand total of 1 democratic party presidential candidate in my life.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-09-07 11:16:32

I think my vote doesn’t count because the Republicans could nominate a ham sandwich, and AZ would still go 60/40 for the ham sandwich

Except for Tucson, which would go 60/40 for the vegan sandwich with locally grown ingredients.

 
Comment by Dale
2012-09-07 11:30:54

“Republicans could nominate a ham sandwich, and AZ would still go 60/40 for the ham sandwich”

Is this a commentary on who the democrats nominate?

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-09-07 12:56:52

Is this a commentary on who the democrats nominate?

I do occasionally point out that the Ds bear some responsibility for why there are large groups of people who feel they can never vote D even if it would be in their economic best interest.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-09-07 18:59:59

“you only think your vote doesn’t count because you don’t get your desired result.”

Did you miss the unit in graduate econometrics on ‘marginal effects’?

 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2012-09-07 09:00:40

Agree, P-bear. With EC, you get a lot of bang for your fraud buck in states like Ohio and Florida. With straight up PV, fraud is operationally impractical. Where do you start, if voting is decentralized over 120(?) million people?

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-09-07 19:01:34

“Where do you start, if voting is decentralized over 120(?) million people?”

That’s it. Are you a legitimate scientist, Oxide?

Comment by oxide
2012-09-08 05:35:53

I can’t say I’m doing “science” in my job, exactly, but yes, I am a very legitimately trained scientist.

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Comment by polly
2012-09-07 12:03:14

Electoral college means that some people don’t have to deal with election ads on TV. I guess the buys in my area must be combined with Virginia, because I get a lot of them and Maryland is not a swing state.

Comment by Itsabouttime
2012-09-07 13:42:03

The problem with PV is there will be fraud everywhere, making it impossible to police. As it is now, for fraud to matter it must occur in the very places you all suggest — Ohio, Florida, a few other states. How many crimes do you think the police would stop if they knew the exact, small number of places it could occur?

The border? — 2000 miles.
Banks? — thousands.
Precincts in the US? — Hundreds of thousands.
Precincts in the swing states? — A small fraction thereof.

Better to concentrate the possibility of fraud, and thus concentrate the enforcement against fraud.

IAT

PS–Those who say their vote doesn’t count with the EC but would with PV don’t seem to realize that if we have PV, their vote will count less because it can be cancelled by the “vote” of someone who does not even exist. How much less than zero power can one have?

IAT

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-09-07 19:03:26

“The problem with PV is there will be fraud everywhere, making it impossible to police.”

Unless one party has a monopoly on election fraud, this is far less concerning than the potential to concentrate election fraud on a handful of swing states.

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Comment by Itsabouttime
2012-09-07 23:56:19

I just don’t get this claim. This is a systemic matter, not a matter of who is good and who is bad. All parties will commit fraud in places where they dominate, because dominating means controlling police power. Why do you think Bush won Florida? Don’t you think Gore would’ve won Florida if he had a sibling running the state? Or, do you think only 1 party (take your pick) breaks the rules?

Once Florida 2004 became a matter of judgment (what’s a chad?) every judgment of the state apparatus favored Bush, regardless of what precedent and rules decreed. Now, write that same scenario in all 50 states, every single freaking election. Elections will thus become a battle determined by who can commit the most fraud.

If you think voter turnout is low now, . . .

If you think people are dis-enfranchised now, . . .

IAT

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-09-07 07:21:34

Stainless steel is out?!?! Noooooo. Next thing you know they’ll be telling us granite counter tops won’t add $50,000 of instant equity to your home!

http://shopping.yahoo.com/news/is-this-the-end-of-a-25-year-run-for-stainless-steel–.html

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2012-09-07 07:45:10

Thank god! It couldn’t happen soon enough for me.

I’ve always preferring the simplicity of white: never a style fad, but also never likely to look entirely last-decade.

 
Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 07:49:37

When I bought the home I am in now…

Orange shag carpets and avocado and peach tile in the bathrooms…

Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 08:00:51

Orange shag carpets

Add a mirror on the ceiling, dimmer switches, and some groovy jazz in the background and you’d have one heck of a love pad…

Comment by goon squad
2012-09-07 08:12:06

Can’t picture anything “groovy” about 2banana. Sorry :(

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Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 08:13:45

You forgot the lava lamp!

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Comment by michael
2012-09-07 08:18:17

He bought Quaymire’s house?

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Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 08:24:51

Giggidy. giggidy.

 
Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 08:44:32

As an aside, Quagmire and Adam West are my favorite characters on Family Guy. Every time Quagmire tries to bag Louis, I get a chuckle…

What can I say about Adam West, other than I dig his William Shatner-esque [over]dramatic style…

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2012-09-07 12:13:36

Are you implying that you bought your house in the 70’s or early 80’s? That also implies that you are old enough to have benefitted from the height of the middle class protections. That means house prices in line with incomes, low (or FREE) college tuition, plentiful jobs with union-backed benefits and pensions, pre-offshoring, pre- H1B, pre-rampant immigration, and pre-repeal of Glass-Steagal…all of which result in a stable enough career that you have had the luxury of NOT being required to relocate since you moved into your shag shack 30 years ago.

And you have the gall to tell the younger set to live within their $500/week “means,” and like it.

Comment by Montana
2012-09-07 12:53:03

Or, he bought an Old Person’s house that was never updated.

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Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 13:40:06

Yep - LOTS of SWEAT Equity.

And I lived BELOW my means DOING it.

No free ride but then again I am not part of the free sh*t army.

My first job? Working in a deli behind the counter.

Or, he bought an Old Person’s house that was never updated.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-07 14:16:56

No free ride

You always omit the important information. Like when did you go to college? Was it back when taxpayers picked up 90% of the tab?

 
Comment by goon squad
2012-09-07 14:45:45

YOU DIDN’T BUILD THAT! LOL

 
 
 
 
Comment by Young Deezy
2012-09-07 08:39:43

Can we please kill off granite too? Please? It’s just so…cliched.

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-09-07 09:02:18

Cliched and so overpriced!

Of course, I still like well-done tile so I’m a bit of a kitchen Luddite.

I do think glass countertops are cool, but would never spend the money and let’s face it, I’m just too much of a klutz. Tile is the easiest to replace when you drop a heavy skillet. :D

Comment by oxide
2012-09-07 15:13:08

My pet peeve is the trendy splotchy confetti granite patterns. Someone could spill a can of Campbell’s soup on it and I wouldn’t even see it.

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Comment by Dale
2012-09-07 11:36:27

Oh No!!!! Without stainless steel and granite, how will you be able to tell that the house flipper has really added $100k to the house that just sold a month ago?

Comment by Dale
2012-09-07 11:37:28

…especially those 1,200 sq ft houses.

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Comment by oxide
2012-09-07 08:44:31

I was stunned to look in the kitchen magazines and see that the appliances were something like 40% of the cost of a new kitchen. IMO I’d rather throw down for something really new, like taking down walls or cutting new windows.

Comment by Diogenes (Tampa, Fl)
2012-09-07 10:02:17

Let me solve that problem for you.
Put up some shelves and cabinets above a formica topped counter.
Park a $400 refrigerator next to them by the sink.
Put a $79 microwave from Walmart on the counter. If you want fancy fried food, buy a hot-plate to put next to the microwave.

Fully functional kitchen.
Just add some pots and pans and some plates and saucers.
No debts. no worries.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-09-07 16:08:08

Fully functional kitchen.

With a hot plate and a microwave? You can buy a used stove on craigs list for less than $100.

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Comment by goon squad
2012-09-07 07:23:54

From the Denver Post - Health care system wastes $750 billion a year, report says:

“The U.S. health care system squanders $750 billion a year - roughly 30 cents of every medical dollar - through unneeded care, byzantine paperwork, fraud and other waste, the influential Institute of Medicine said Thursday in a report that ties directly into the presidential campaign.

If banking worked like health care, ATM transactions would take days, the report said. If home building were like health care, carpenters, electricians and plumbers would work from different blueprints and hardly talk to one another. If shopping were like health care, prices would not be posted and could vary widely within the same store, depending on who was paying.”

Comment by rms
2012-09-07 07:35:01

There’s little political benefit in getting close to that third rail.

 
Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 07:50:44

Amazing what the free market can do to keep prices down…

Comment by goon squad
2012-09-07 09:46:42

And from Bloomberg - Universal Health Care Shouldn’t Be Reduced, Lancet Says:

“Expansion of government subsidized medical care improves health and should be maintained in times of economic crisis, according to a survey of research.

Programs such as Medicare for senior citizens and Medicaid for the poor in the US and similar programs in other countries led to increased use of preventative, inpatient and outpatient services and better health status for previously uninsured populations, Peter Smith and Rodrigo Moreno Serra of Imperial College of London wrote in the Lancet medical journal today.”

Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 10:03:47

Medicare and Medicaid will soon bankrupt the federal treasury.

Then NO ONE will have health coverage.

Great plan.

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Comment by measton
2012-09-07 10:46:58

Or we could just reverse the Bush tax cuts and implement price control measures proven in other socialized systems that reduce the cost of medical care by 50%. We could stop paying insurance companies 20-30 cents on every dollar they take in on management and marketing. United Health CEO alone toook in something like 100,000,000 dollars last year or the year prior.

 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-07 13:57:12

Amazing what the free market can do to keep prices down…

You mean the way it has in the past 40 years?

 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-09-07 10:02:45

I can really agree with how wasteful the health care system is and how corrupted it became . The Pharma business that is paid for by insurance and not really questioned to much ,is one of the biggest
rip off parasites of the paid for health system .

There is no way, based on current costs and soon to be more inflated costs that the health system can take care of 65 million
baby boomers ,given their chronic bad health and what the needs will be . THe Affordable Health Care bill didn’t address the corruption or the corrupted costs of health care . This is breaking the back of many a pension system and our Society as a whole .

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-09-07 10:24:25

Looks like we have a world-class health care system. It’s very good at being a screwed up mess.

Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-09-07 10:52:17

Slim ,it is a screwed up mess ,extremely corrupt ,price fixing costs and questionable treatment on top of all that . Why do they tell the lie that we have the best health care system in the World ? Pharma and hospital mistakes accounts for the third cause of death in the USA now . These are unacceptable stats for a health care system to be that risky and no doubt that is based on the greed that controls the care rather than the “do no harm ” motto . Add to that the shit food supply that is getting more and more toxic as the years go by and people are getting sicker and sicker. Lifestyle and eating good food and exercise and lack of stress are the biggest factors that keep one healthy
IMHO . I’m not even trusting vaccines anymore because its a big
money maker for Big Pharma .

Politics are getting so silly these days that it can’t even be taken
serious anymore in that they don’t even discuss the issues they should be talking about .

 
 
 
Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-09-07 07:28:10

“The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent in August, from 8.3 percent in July. That was largely due to more people who gave up looking for work.”

There were 368,000 people who gave up looking for work in August.

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON —
The chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers says the latest jobs report offers signs of an improving economy. But he acknowledges more work needs to be done.

In a statement, Alan Krueger notes that 103,000 jobs were added in the private sector in the last month for the 30th straight month. He pointed to improvement in particular for the leisure, business services and health care sectors.

Krueger says President Barack Obama has been working to create more jobs for the middle class but that a jobs bill the president proposed has stalled in Congress.

The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent in August, from 8.3 percent in July. That was largely due to more people who gave up looking for work.

Copyright The Associated Press

Comment by goon squad
2012-09-07 07:46:35

people who gave up looking for work

Maybe because they’re too busy buying houses to look for work LOL!

Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-09-07 07:53:53

Like I said yesterday, around here small businesses are dropping like flies. LOL?

Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 08:20:12

A local diner that has been around since the 1960’s closed shop recently. They just weren’t seeing enough business to meet expenses anymore…

Was it purely a demand problem or a too steep rise in costs based on existing demand? Not sure, but it doesn’t bode well.

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Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-09-07 08:55:42

Posted: 11:44 a.m. Friday, Sept. 7, 2012

Why unemployment rate fell: Fewer people seek jobs

By CHRISTOPHER S RUGABER

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON —
U.S. employers added 96,000 jobs in August, a tepid figure that points to the economy’s persistent weakness and slowing prospects for the unemployed.

The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent in July. But that was only because more people gave up looking for jobs. People out of work are counted as unemployed only if they’re looking for a job.

The sluggish job growth could slow the momentum President Barack Obama hoped to gain from his speech Thursday night to the Democratic National Convention.

They could also make the Federal Reserve more likely to unveil a new bond-buying program at its meeting next week. The goal would be to lower long-term interest rates to encourage borrowing and spending.

Hourly pay fell in August, manufacturers cut the most jobs in two years and the number of people in the work force dropped to its lowest level in 31 years. The government also said 41,000 fewer jobs were created in July and June than first estimated.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-07 13:55:05

A local diner that has been around since the 1960’s closed shop recently.

When you offshore enough jobs eventually small biz runs out of customers. Big biz doesn’t, because unlike the diner you mentioned, they do business abroad.

 
Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-09-07 16:23:46

Vice President Biden’s Convention Speech

On Mitt Romney’s new “territorial tax”: “He has a new tax proposal — the territorial tax — that experts say will create 800,000 jobs, all of them overseas.”

Rebuttal: Simpson Bowles supports Romney’s idea. And so do U.S. companies, which have said they could create more jobs if their foreign profits weren’t taxed twice, as they are now. Reforming the tax code here could help companies bring home more than $1.2 trillion they now have parked overseas due to concerns over double taxation. Under U.S. tax law, companies that earn profits overseas get taxed twice. They must pay taxes to foreign governments. Then they get tax credits for those payments to offset their taxes owed — at a high 35% corporate tax rate. So companies don’t repatriate overseas cash back home because they get double taxed. Romney wants to stop that, to bring cash back home to create jobs. Under this plan, companies would get taxed once–only in the country where it was earned.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-07 16:52:29

“And so do U.S. companies, which have said they could create more jobs if their foreign profits weren’t taxed twice, as they are now.

And yet companies like GE, which pay no income tax, continue to offshore jobs.

 
Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-09-07 18:19:52

March 25, 2011 3:00 PM

White House defends embrace of G.E. CEO despite report company didn’t owe taxes in 2010

In January, President Obama named General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt to head the President’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, an economic advisory board focused on job creation.

In his State of the Union address that same month, meanwhile, he called for the closure of corporate tax loopholes in conjunction with a lowering of the corporate tax rate, which stands at 35 percent.

Mr. Obama’s choice of Immelt came under scrutiny Friday in the wake of a front-page story in the New York Times reporting that despite $14.2 billion in worldwide profits - including more than $5 billion from U.S. operations - GE did not owe taxes in 2010.

Carney was asked why, if the president wants corporate tax reform, he appointed “to the head of the Competitiveness and Jobs Council a person who is now the poster child for abusing the system to get out of paying taxes.”

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20047212-503544.html - 103k

 
Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-09-07 18:33:47

CNS News reported, via Free Republic:

The Obama administration gave corporate giant General Electric—the parent company of NBC–$24.9 million in grants from the $787-billion economic “stimulus” law President Barack Obama signed in February 2009, according to records posted by the administration at Recovery.gov.

Despite getting $24.9 million from U.S. taxpayers, GE decreased its U.S.-based employees by 18,000 in 2009, according to the company’s 2009 annual report.

According to Standard & Poor’s, GE took in $156 billion in revenue in 2009.

GE was the primary recipient of 14 stimulus grants, a spokeswoman for Recovery.gov confirmed to CNSNews.com. These 14 grants provided GE with $24.9 million in tax dollars. On four additional stimulus grants, the primary recipient of the federal money hired GE as a contractor. Recovery.gov is the administration’s website that tracks stimulus expenditures.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 07:52:53

Must be nice to put your own people in debt for generations to help out a buddy…

—————————–

Draghi Helps Out Obama Campaign
Financial Times | 9/6/2012 | Robin Harding

But Mr. Draghi has lowered the gravest of risks to Mr Obama: a pre-election meltdown in the eurozone that would have blown up banks, pulverized Wall Street, and routed a fragile US economy back into recession.

 
Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 07:57:31

A couple of thoughts.

1. What happened to the banks taking YEARS and multiple visits to do this kinds of thing for REAL foreclosures? Seems a roll of the dice.

2. The bank should pay BIG TIME for this mistake. BIG TIME.

3. When you break into a house you are not supposed to break into because you can’t get your paperwork correct - you are liable to get shot in many “more free” states in America.

4. Breaking and entry and vandalism. Why are not the people who work for the BANK NOT IN JAIL?

—————————————-

Owners Lose Possessions After Home Near Twentynine Palms Is Mistakenly Foreclosed
CBS-LA.com | 5 Sep 2012 | Stef Riter

The owners of a modest home near Twentynine Palms lost their cherished possessions after a bank mistakenly foreclosed their residence.

A crew broke into Alvin and Pat Tjosaas’ desert home and took everything after being directed by Wells Fargo to secure the structure.

The couple, however, didn’t have a mortgage on the home.

Alvin said the deputy sheriff said, “Good news, we know who took (your possessions)…Wells Fargo. Bad news, your stuff is all gone.”

All the married couple has now are three generations of memories.

Alvin, a retired mason, built the home with his father when he was a teenager.

“I know every inch, every rock…my mom mixed all the cement by hand,” he said.

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-09-07 10:29:36

Don’t forget what happens to the pets when they mistakenly foreclose - also gone, sometimes forever.

Didn’t the sheriff used to have to be involved when a foreclosure resulted in personal items being removed? And didn’t they have to serve repeated notification so that a “surprise” foreclosure wasn’t possible?

This is a nightmare situation to me. I have ALL of the family photos and my mom’s art, my dad’s photos and camera collection, etc. One bad foreclosure and it’s all gone. (Also true of one bad fire.)

So question of the day: Is this scenario more likely to happen to an owner or a renter? Owners - gets foreclosed on falsely due to bad paperwork. Renters - gets their stuff thrown out because landlord had notices sent elsewhere and never let renters know what is coming. (Has this happened - we’ve had so many bank screw-up stories, usually with BoA, but I can’t recall any renters losing stuff without warning.)

Comment by sfrenter
2012-09-07 15:17:51

Just this week we began fostering a little dog. Not. Keeping. Her.

The shelters are overflowing and they say it’s because of all the foreclosures in the Bay Area and the tight rental situation in the city. Many of the dog rescue places get dogs from outside the city, as San Francisco SPCA is a no-kill shelter.

Pitbulls and chihuahuas coming out their ears.

Comment by rms
2012-09-07 16:22:21

Pitbulls and chihuahuas coming out their ears.

And who desires Pitbulls and Chihuahuas?

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Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 08:11:07

Wow - four more years please.

Finish the job.

Stay the course.

——————————
Labor Pains: U.S. Economy Adds 96,000 Jobs in August
Foxbusiness - September 7th, 2012

Nonfarm payrolls increased only 96,000 last month, the Labor Department said on Friday. While the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent in July, it was largely due to Americans giving up the search for work.

The report’s weak tenor was also underscored by revisions to June and July data to show 41,000 fewer jobs created than previously reported. The labor force participation rate, or the precentage of Americans who either have a job or are looking for one, fell to 63.5 percent – the lowest since September 1981.

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-07 08:13:06

Ryan on CNBC this morning gave me the numbers I’ve been looking for.

Cut taxes, cut spending even more, drastically reduce the deficits, deregulate and create…..

wait for it…..

12 million jobs in less than 4 years.

3 million a year, average of 250K a month.

As far as the deficits, the best I could decipher is he said he’d have the debt increased at a rate less than GDP, which he said would be 4% annual growth.

Now, he, like so many others, likes to use the $16T national debt number. So, 4% of that would be deficits of no more than $640B a year.

I’m voting R&R (not that it matters since I’m not in a swing state), just to see how they are going to pull that off. Are they going to be able to jump start the private sector debt machine?

Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 09:15:48

I’m voting R&R

LOL. For all our debates and disagreements, we’re voting the same ticket… see my post below.

Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-07 09:45:01

Again, I’ll be voting R&R, and hope they win, not because I think they will succeed in their plans. More because I want their lies to be shown for exactly what they are. My understanding of math and economics says it should be virtually impossible for them to do what they claim.

Again, we have $600B a year flowing out of the economy via international trade deficits. We have $700B a year flowing out of the economy via 70% of corporate profits going to those that already have more money than they spend. This $1.3T a year drain is why we’re just bouncing along at sub-2% growth despite pumping $1.3T of new debt/money into the economy every year.

So, they will cut taxes on the rich, increasing the flow of money out of circulation as the rich get richer. They will then cut government spending by an even larger amount, to shrink the deficits. This net loss in new debt/money creation while increasing the flow of money from circulation by lowering taxes on the rich should CRUSH the economy, causing massive job loss, not job creation.

Sure, they’ll deregulate and get oil exploration pumped up, etc. But, even if we can start sucking millions more barrells a year out of the ground, I think it would be HIGHLY optimistic to think we could reduce imports by more than 20%. That shaves only $40B off the $600B international trade deficit.

BUT… let’s say that Romney and Ryan do somehow manage to drastically cut deficits but somehow get lots of people back to work. That will almost certainly explode oil use faster than we can add to domestic supply. We’ll also be importing way more consumer goods once those consumers have jobs again.

The ONLY way I see them succeeding in their plan to make the rich richer, slash government deficits, put people back to work, etc, is if they manage the same trick that Reagan, Clinton and Bush Jr used. That is, private sector debt exploding at almost 4x the sustainable rate.

I just do not see how they are going to get the already tapped out private sector back into the borrowing mode needed to create the $1.3+T a year our trade imbalance plagued economy needs to function.

So, if they win, and attempt to do what they promise, then either I’ll be proven right in my economic theory that unsustainable debt is the reason we’ve appeared to have prosperity, or I’ll be proven wrong.

If I’m wrong, I’ll be so happy. Party on without every having unintended consequences.

If I’m right, maybe we’ll finally be forced to address the real underlying causes of our troubles, and stop trying to paper over the flaws with massive debt/money creation.

Comment by b-hamster
2012-09-07 10:35:51

Well a big problem in ‘job creation’ is the trillion dollar annual military spending. I’ve read studies where a dollar spent on the military complex has a much lower return/impact upon the overall economy (eg, jobs created, multiplier effect) than money spent on education, infrastructure, health, etc. On a positive note, however, selling of war toys to other countries - the enemy of the enemy is our ally - is a significant chunk of our dwindling export base.

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Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 11:28:09

That’s what the discussion Polly and I had in a previous Bits Bucket: MPC is marginal propensity to consume and is used in economic formula’s to model impact to GDP from government spending. MIC spending approaches .2-.4 depending on whether it is permanent or temporary. Something like SNAP approaches 1.

 
Comment by b-hamster
2012-09-07 14:28:14

Yeah, I couldn’t find anyhitng on a quick search in Google. But I read and blogged on it a few years back.

 
 
 
 
Comment by polly
2012-09-07 09:20:23

250 million is what the economists are already predicting. Whether they are right or not is, of course, unknown, but that is what they are saying. So they are promising the same number of jobs that would be created if everything stays as it is now?

Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-09-07 10:31:58

250k?

’cause I’ll vote anyone who can create 250 million jobs. :D

Comment by polly
2012-09-07 12:07:51

Oops.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2012-09-07 13:00:22

250 million $50k+ jobs and I’d even be willing to talk about amnesty for illegals :-).

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Comment by Dale
2012-09-07 11:51:09

“So they are promising the same number of jobs that would be created if everything stays as it is now?”

….maybe they are saying that they won’t screw up the natural recovery that is about to happen. Can BO promise that?

 
Comment by Dale
2012-09-07 12:07:37

“So they are promising the same number of jobs that would be created if everything stays as it is now?”

Perhaps they are saying they won’t screw up the natural recovery that will eventually occur. Can BO say the same?

Comment by Dale
2012-09-07 14:09:12

Stop screening my posts and I will stop posting twice!

Stop screening my posts and I will stop posting twice!

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Comment by rms
2012-09-07 16:24:10

Stop screening my posts and I will stop posting twice!

Welcome to the moderator’s purgatory!

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 08:14:51

Bronco made a statement in yesterday’s Bits Bucket that it would be cheaper to create settlements in the arctic/antarctic or underwater than on Mars or the Moon.

I agree completely that there is a significant cost with any sort of permanent settlement on another celestial body. In fact, I think undersea settlement is going to be the next big thing for the ultra-wealthy. They are already spending vast sums of money on luxury submarines… the next step is exclusive underwater resorts… and of course, those resorts will need to house staff. Eventually, we’ll be at the point [as foretold in The Abyss] where underwater drilling rigs and underwater kelp farming is the norm, and we’ll need permanent housing underwater to supply the labor.

Having said that, as long as we have finite resources on earth, we’ll need to expand into the solar system [and beyond] to find the resources necessary to continue growing. As long as an extinction event on Earth is a statistical possibility, it is an imperative that the human race expand to other celestial locations like the Moon and Mars. From a cost perspective, it is expensive, but can you put a number on the extinction of humanity? Can you put a number of the many billions that would die because of resource shortages [war, famine, disease]?

It literally is our destiny to expand outward, the only species on Earth to have the cognitive ability to leave Earth… the question is when, not if. In fact, if we rely on robotic technology to do most of the initial heavy lifting of setting up a settlement and drop supplies over decades, it is quite doable even today.

Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 08:20:03

Space travel will get cheaper and easier with advancing technology.

Comment by Carl Morris
2012-09-07 09:15:32

Space travel will get cheaper and easier with advancing technology.

Except as currently done it requires huge amounts of energy. Even as the tech gets cheaper, the energy doesn’t. And if we have a big breakthrough that makes energy way cheaper I think that will change our world in other ways far more than the resultant space travel does.

Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 09:26:35

The primary reason for the huge amounts of “chemical” energy needed today is the difficulty of escaping the Earth’s gravity well. What if interplanetary ships didn’t need to launch from the surface of the Earth, rather they launched from the ISS. You wouldn’t need nearly as much energy to escape orbit and the Moon and Mars both have significantly less gravity than Earth.

I was also thinking about nuclear powerplants, given our Super Carriers can essentially sail without refueling for years at a time, this might make sense for interplanetary ships as well… less bulk, more efficient. Use nuclear generation for internal power and ION propulsion for interplanetary propulsion. This is current tech and has been tested on a number of recent satellites and probes.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2012-09-07 13:04:52

Once you’ve got the ship (or the materials to build the ship) into orbit along with the human bodies you want to transport, sure. Something still has to get them up there, though, and right now it takes a lot of energy. Maybe the advancing technology will also include a space elevator to reduce that?

 
 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2012-09-07 08:33:42

the extinction of humanity?

If the future will look like Idiocracy, is this necessarily a bad thing?

Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 08:36:39

For those who aren’t idiots, yes…

Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 08:38:37

Sorry, that wasn’t a dig at you Goon. More a comment regarding Idiocracy…

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Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-07 08:54:24

If Biosphere projects taught us anything, it is that we are way/way/way away from being able to do a permanent base on the moon or Mars that is not in constant resupply from earth.

It is the oceans that cover 2/3rds of the earth that actually produce the oxygen that we breath, not that small patch of grass in front of our house or the trees in the forests.

To think man could save himself from extinction via a Mars base is so far beyond out current technology that beginning such a base at this time is beyond silly, if that is the purpose.

The real purpose of space exploration should be the same as it was when we went to the moon. To have a very hard thing to do, to justify spending vast sums of money on, to push the cutting edge of science and technological advancement…. and to take lots of money form the rich, and spend it into the hands of the middle class, to keep the money moving.

Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 09:12:47

To think man could save himself from extinction via a Mars base is so far beyond out current technology that beginning such a base at this time is beyond silly

Not at all… if it takes 50-100 years for us to get there, then beginning now, especially using primarily robotic tech, makes sense. That’s what the International Space Station was all about: R&D. There are many lessons that need to be learned before a permanent, manned colony is feasible. We won’t begin to learn those lessons without starting the process. I think we need to learn those lessons on the moon before we travel 6 months out to Mars, however.

Bottom line, 100 years is nothing in the cosmic timeline and in that time, our technology and understanding of the risks in space will have advanced to the point it becomes very feasible.

 
 
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-09-07 10:52:05

” From a cost perspective, it is expensive, but can you put a number on the extinction of humanity? Can you put a number of the many billions that would die because of resource shortages [war, famine, disease]?”

According to Stephen King is it 99.4%

Just hope I’m in the first wave as I don’t want to see everyone I love die.

 
Comment by measton
2012-09-07 11:04:31

The cheapest thing is just to kill off all the proles occupying the elites land, problem solved. Why colonize space. A manufactured war or famine, or bioterrorism could do the trick quickly.

Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 11:21:37

I am always amazed how fast “feed the children and keep grandma in her home” liberals/socialists turn into “we need to kill millions of people to realize our utopian society” monsters…

But then again, history does repeat itself.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-07 13:52:02

I believe that Measton’s remark was sarcasm, dude.

But I wouldn’t put it past the 1%’ers to kill the rest of us off if that was required to save them.

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Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 11:30:26

What you say, in jest, is the basis for a number of conspiracy theories…

 
Comment by polly
2012-09-07 12:13:11

I saw a Brit TV show a long time ago (Learning Channel, maybe?) that explained that there was a huge economic boom in Europe after the Black Death. Part of it was less productive land could be abandoned so agricultural efficiency improved, but a lot was because the reduced population meant that the wealthy had to pay higher wages to get people who weren’t serfs to work for them.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-09-07 13:34:36

Saw that as well.

People constantly underestimate the influence of the environment on human affairs.

Another good example is the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. It killed more soldiers in WWI than the fighting did and is often cited as the cause for the war’s end.

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Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 14:03:29

the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. It killed more soldiers in WWI than the fighting did and is often cited as the cause for the war’s end.

Well, that or the entrance into the war of the Americans on the side of the British and the French. The Germans, British and French were stalemated by years of trench warfare… literally hundreds of thousands of troops fighting and dying over a few miles of blasted mud and dirt. The repercussions financially and in manpower for such a prolonged, deadly conflict was what brought the war to an end… with America bringing 10,000 fresh troops and supplies to the front a day in 1918, the Germans and Austrians had no choice but to seek terms.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 08:35:13

The Sound and the Fury
The Chicago Daily Observer | September 7, 2012 | Daniel J. Kelley

After almost forty-eight months, with no record of meaningful accomplishments, domestic or foreign, to boast about all that Democrats could do was to act as spin doctors. Let us talk about tomorrow, they suggested, because it was and is better than dwelling upon today’s unpleasant truths: massive debts, high unemployment, two unpopular foreign wars, including one seemingly endless war, prolonged and worsened by the Commander in Chief’s indecisiveness and lack of purpose and resolve, a radical agenda opposed by the American public and a President who seems woefully out of his depth.

Can you remember when Democratic leftists proclaimed “Bush lied and people died” on a daily basis? The number of military casualties under the Obama administration has far surpassed those which took place during the Bush presidency, but no one in the media talks about that or keeps an updated scorecard tally of the dead and wounded. It is unclear precisely what Obama’s military policy is, but, hey, Osama Bin Laden’s dead.

The ethically challenged Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, who has not attempted to call a budget vote in several years, accused Romney being secretive for not releasing more income tax returns. Of course, President Obama has steadfastly refused to release complete documentation concerning his grades, medical records, passports, Social Security identification and basic vital statistics information concerning his murky paternity. There are double standards as to transparency.

No honest mention could be made to the delegates of the disastrous Community Reinvestment Act, signed into law by President James Earl Carter, expanded by Clinton, championed by Chris Dodd, Barney Frank and Maxine Waters, and allegedly superintended by Rahm Emanuel.

Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 08:53:47

Can you remember when Democratic leftists proclaimed “Bush lied and people died” on a daily basis?

Most of what I heard last night from the Democrats was crap. I did enjoy the Governor of Montana’s speech. He basically said Romney was good man and a good family man, but not the right man to be President. His points were the same issues I’ve had with Romney since his governorship of Massachusetts:
* he increased taxes on everyone
* he reduced aid to state Universities, forcing tuition increases
* he quadrupled gun licensing fees
* he saddled the state with the most debt per capita of any state.
* he passed mandatory Health Care

My hope, as I won’t vote the Democratic ticket in this election, is that Romney learned from the mistakes of his MA governorship. He had better clarify a few things for the debates if he hopes to get the swing voter independents…

Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 09:18:43

BTW, the speech made it sound like Montana is booming, with annual budget surpluses and huge aid packages to the state Universities in Montana. Anyone from Montana care to elaborate on the state of the economy there?

Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-07 09:26:00

Balken Shale.

Pretty stupid of other states not to have put a giant new, not already exploited source of energy under it’s soil.

That is Greece’s real problem. They were just too stupid to put massive coal, iron and other natural resource deposits under the ground, like Germany did. The didn’t create tall mountains and large dammable rivers like Germany did.

Stupid Greeks make their country a little lifted up coral reef with little in the way of resources except marble, limestone and concrete…. oh, and a climate that is favorable for growing olives.

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Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 10:19:18

What kind of resources do Hong Kong or Singapore have? Oh - none. And they are booming.

What kind of resources do Nigeria and Venezuela have - massive oil deposits. And they are basket cases.

So maybe it has something MORE TO DO than just what is naturally found in the ground.

 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-07 10:31:24

“What kind of resources do Hong Kong or Singapore have?”

Massive debt/money generation centers. Woot woot, let’s hear it for the debt/money generation centers of the world!

“What kind of resources do Nigeria and Venezuela have - massive oil deposits.”

No middle class, wide disparity between rich and poor. Where America is headed.

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-09-07 13:28:21

Headed? We’re THERE. It just looks prettier than over there.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-07 16:49:09

What kind of resources do Hong Kong or Singapore have? Oh - none. And they are booming.

Booming? It’s relative. I know some Singaporeans. Singapore is a place of never ending hot and humid summers (think Orlando in the summer). Yet the average Singaporean can’t afford to A/C his tiny apartment.

 
Comment by Bronco
2012-09-07 23:17:07

It is hot and humid, but nothing like Orlando.

And you are very wrong about the a/c– it is everywhere and affordable. In fact, in many places, ie malls, restaurants it’s too damn cold!

 
 
Comment by WT Economist
2012-09-07 09:59:58

Natural resources means boom and bust. It’s boom now, as long as not too many people move in to share the wealth.

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Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 11:55:57

Natural resources means boom and bust.

Anything based on the economic principles of supply and demand mean boom and bust. It’s a natural feedback loop… too bad the Fed and bureaucrats in government think they know better than the market and it’s cycles of growth and destruction how to allocate and distribute resources.

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-09-07 13:26:52

Those cycles are destructive in more ways than one and also represent national strategic defense vulnerabilities.

You free market fanatics don’t seem to understand that the economy is not the end-all, be-all of a secure functioning society and that commerce IS NOT above the law and justice and cannot, and should never be allowed to, do as it pleases.

That’s okay, Marie Antoinette didn’t get it either.

 
 
 
Comment by measton
2012-09-07 11:06:24

he saddled the state with the most debt per capita of any state.

I thought the theme was the GOP wants someone to run the country like a business. This is exactly how Hedge Funds run their business. They buy the company strip it’s assets and load it with debt and then move on.

 
 
Comment by exit56
2012-09-07 09:50:28

“The number of military casualties under the Obama administration has far surpassed those which took place during the Bush presidency.”

Do the dead Iraqis count? There’s a difference between a war and a war crime.

Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 10:08:29

Don’t know.

All the networks stopped their “death counts” and Cindy Sheehan interviews once “The One” took power.

In fact, I have not seen a story on the homeless, widow of a fallen soldier or kids starving since Dec, 2008…

Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-07 11:59:38

+1

When did the media stop covering Afghanistan? Does the American public even know we’re still at war there? How about Yemen and Uganda? Does the American public even know we have boots on the ground in both countries? What about Syria? Has the Liberal US Media Establishment covered the fact that our supposed “allies” in the Middle East, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, are providing weapons and ammunition to the Free Syrian Army, to include members of Al Qaeda?

Talk about irresponsible journalism…

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Comment by rms
2012-09-07 12:20:02

Talk about irresponsible journalism…

Chris Hedges Sits Down With Bill Moyers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUxjZhquwPk (30:22)

 
 
 
 
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-07 10:54:38

More casualties under Obama than Bush, because Obama executed the Republican surge plan into Afghanistan as McSame had pushed for.

Are you saying there would have been less under McSame?

I thought 2008 was Obummer vs. McSame. Turns out it was more like O’Same v.s McSame.

Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 13:06:18

Please tell me your EXCUSE (this time) for obama this time is not:

Well, obama just did what the republican would have done if he was elected so it is NOT obama’s fault.

LEADERSHIP FAIL.

and put down the kool-aid.

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-07 14:26:07

I think this proves what many have been saying: there’s very little difference between the two. And I think that a lot of lefties are disappointed with the way the way has dragged on under Obama.

 
Comment by Bluestar
2012-09-07 15:28:45

Did it ever occur to anybody that just maybe our military leaders are stupid. How many times have you heard Bush, McCain, Obama, Romney say: “I will listen to the generals.”.

Well I think our military leaders should be court marshaled for dereliction of duty, and in some cases even treason. At least Obama fired Gen. Stanley McChrystal and Bush dumped Rumsfeld but the rot goes way deeper.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by frankie
2012-09-07 10:36:13

Hungary has thrown hopes for a new loan to prop up its sagging economy into disarray on Thursday as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban rejected what he called unacceptable IMF conditions, crushing prospects for a fast agreement.

Orban, in a video posted on his Facebook page, cited demands from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a raft of changes that he said were too high a price for Hungary to pay.

“From cutting pensions to reducing bureaucracy to scrapping the bank tax and the funds to be made available to banks, everything is in there that’s not in Hungary’s interest,” Orban said, as cited by MoneyControls.

http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=143029

Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 11:18:44

Then PAY FOR IT.

The entitlement mentality ON ALL LEVELS is an amazing thing to behold.

“From cutting pensions to reducing bureaucracy to scrapping the bank tax and the funds to be made available to banks, everything is in there that’s not in Hungary’s interest,” Orban said, as cited by MoneyControls.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-07 14:24:10

Sometimes it pays to actually read the articles:

“To reverse that momentum, Orban is pushing a 300 billion forint job saving plan, partly funded by a new tax on central bank operations, a key sticking point in the IMF talks, which the European Central Bank has also criticised.”

Ooh, the banksters don’t want to pay taxes.

The funny thing about this situation is that the banksters might inadvertently wind up pushing Hungary out of the EU and back into Russia’s influence sphere (along with other former Warsaw pact nations).

 
 
Comment by Bluestar
2012-09-07 11:30:53

Somewhat related since it involves sovereign debts.
(Sounds like we should send Paul Ryan over to fix this.)

Soviet Bonds Are Haunting Putin
“The government estimates that it needs 25 trillion rubles ($785 billion) to account for what remains of the Soviet balance sheet. That liability equals almost half of Russia’s economic output and would boost government debt nearly tenfold, according to Vladimir Osakovskiy, chief economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Moscow.

The year before its debt default, Bank of America’s Osakovskiy says, Russia settled outstanding tsarist bonds in France for $400 million, a 99 percent haircut. “We expect a similar settlement” with the Soviet-era bonds, says Osakovskiy.”

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-09-06/soviet-bonds-are-haunting-putin

 
 
Comment by sfrenter
2012-09-07 11:03:15

Anyone know what I can do to fix my JT extension? It works at home on my Mac, but on a PC it doesn’t keep track of already read comments. I have reinstalled it but no improvement.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2012-09-07 11:18:28

Download the latest version?

 
 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-09-07 11:43:26

Have noticed a new trend locally…..and the next bubble to implode, leaving Uncle sugar to hold the bag..

-Seeing people who have entered the workforce, or who have been laid off and found a new job……..many of these people are working full time at one job, and part time at another, because almost all of the new “full time jobs” only pay $12-15/hour.

-Talked to a recent A&P grad/guy locked into the scenario above. His class started with 25-30 people, but only a handful finished. Why?

Nobody bothered to tell any of the new students that you can’t get a license with a criminal record. Or that they would have to take their tests in English. So, when they find out 2-3 months in, they are walking.

The school has already been paid the $20-30K for the training, via student loans. They are happy. They got paid up front. In the meantime, the government is left to try to squeeze blood from turnips.

I’m guessing this is being repeated in about every “retraining” market.

So to the question/request…… Since this is going to blow up in someone’s face eventually, because “nobody could see it coming”, how does one place a bet/”invest” against this market?

Looks like a nice place to roll my pension plan buyout……

(Once again, a good thing is screwed up by greed……when -fixr needed a school loan back in the 70s, I ended up getting a government loan, because the “free market” didn’t deem me worthy. Worked out good for everyone. Now, it seems like the same idiots that screwed up the house market are trashing another market).

Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 13:04:11

Smart enough to fix planes but too stupid to know the rules BEFORE they paid the tuition bill?

Nobody bothered to tell any of the new students that you can’t get a license with a criminal record. Or that they would have to take their tests in English. So, when they find out 2-3 months in, they are walking.

Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-09-07 13:38:40

Nobody can be an expert on everything nor should they have to be.

In this case, it is fraud by omission.

Comment by 2banana
2012-09-07 13:43:08

Is 10 minutes on google too much to ask?

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Comment by goon squad
2012-09-07 14:53:51

And those Occupiers need to occupy a shower and get a job! LOL

 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-09-07 16:04:32

10 minutes on Google won’t tell you anything.

AC 65.12 spells out “Requirements”…….no mention of it there.

The kids all get nailed by AC 65-12, which spells out the automatic suspension and/or revocation of the certificate in the event of a drug or alcohol conviction.

In addition to this, anyone involved in air commerce is required to have a drug/alcohol testing program. A positive test is a “guilty until proven innocent” deal; automatic suspension, no “Due process” involved. The refusal to take the test also calls for an automatic certificate suspension/revocation.

Please note that they typical “suspension” is one year, minimum.

 
 
 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2012-09-07 15:43:02

Remember, we are talking 18-24 year olds. With some counselor or recruiter “helping” them get into school.

Sorry to hurt anyone’s feelings, but the quality of high school counselors suck. Most are lifers in the public education industrial complex, and don’t have a clue on what to do with kids who aren’t going to go to college for one reason or another.

So they palm them off onto the military, and hope they can pick up a skill/training there.

Comment by aNYCdj
2012-09-07 17:36:31

X i’ve said it before those kids are seriously clueless when it comes to internet research……they can push all the buttons and text real fast but critical thinking…..nope very few can do it.

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Comment by Montana
2012-09-08 06:19:44

I went to a trade school in Dallas, and after they went through all the easily qualified applicants they started dragooning kids off the street. And yeah the game was, get them admitted, get their loan money, and whatever comes next didn’t matter. This was 30 years ago and I doubt the game has changed any. I graduated, paid off my loan and enrolled in a real school.

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Comment by Bluestar
2012-09-07 14:15:28

Time for your weekend weather report! Time to fire up the Barbee-Q.

http://takvera.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/humour-and-now-for-real-weather-report.html

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower©
2012-09-07 22:32:07

Fantastic. Too bad real TV weather reports aren’t so — informative!

 
 
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