Fascinating, PW. Good call. I remember posting in 2007 that we would not see a recovery in values until 2015. Many people said I was crazy….turns out I was just an optomist! It may take until 2017.
Jingle, with due respect, I think you’re crazy to think we’ll be back to peak by 2017. I’m certainly not in the “prices will fall forever” camp, but peak values need substantially higher incomes to support them, and they won’t happen overnight. If we do have a big upward trajectory in home prices, expect interest rates to also rise, which will make it even harder for buyers.
5 years from today? I’d be surprised if it happened sooner than 20 years from today.
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Comment by Jingle Male
2012-09-10 15:19:52
You’re right RW. I really meant returning to a normal market.
Houses in California sold for $250 to 300/SF in 2005 & 2006. You can buy the same house today for $90-140/SF. So 3% growth in prices for 5 years will result in $105 to $165/SF.
“Personally, I’m betting on a bottom around 2017…”
Seems reasonable, though perhaps on the optimistic end of the scale, given the delaying effect of extend-and-pretend.
Note that Japan also used extend-and-pretend policy, including permission for banks to hide accounting losses, resulting in two lost decades (so far) of asset price declines (housing and stocks).
Please note the date of the article. And the author.
The real estate market is the best I have seen in my 33+ years in real estate for buyers, whether they are buying for lifestyle to move in with their families or for buying for investment. There are four main reasons why I say this:
First - The interest rates are still near 40 year historic lows. Rates continue to be well under 7%.
Second - There are more homes for sale than we have had for decades – therefore there is much more to choose from as a buyer.
Third - Prices are stable in the heartland of the USA and in several states, California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona as well as the rust belt of Michigan, Indiana and Ohio the prices have dropped enough that the smart buyers are beginning to jump back in the market to take advantage of the lower prices.
The fourth and final reason that now is the best time to buy is - affordability. According to the National Association of Realtors, the trade organization for Realtors, we are at near a 5 year low in affordability. In addition, Wachovia published a paper on real estate on July 14 of this year comparing the median price of homes in the USA with the disposable income our citizens have, according to the US Department of Commerce. They found that the worst affordability was three years ago and the best was August, 1980. Today they report that we are near that 28 year low. Now is the best time to buy real estate!!!!!
One other factor to consider is that according to the National Association of Realtors the average median increase in home values in our country since 1972 is 6.2%. What a great annual return on your investment.
Jim Gillespie, Pres and CEO of Coldwell Banker, July 2008. Wow! That is a find.
I bought 3 houses that year and 2 are worth less than I paid for them…….although they all cash flow nicely and have had almost no vacancy in the last 4 years.
Mary Jo White, a former U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, adheres mostly to the view that the financial crisis was a catastrophe, but not a crime. Now a prominent defense attorney at the law firm Debevoise & Plimpton, White said she thinks calls from some quarters for more criminal prosecutions are unwarranted
William Black, a law professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City and a prominent former bank regulator, is in the camp that thinks prosecutors have missed a massive opportunity.
“They don’t get the whole concept of looting,” he said.
Black, who worked with prosecutors to develop some of the 1,100 criminal cases that emerged from the Savings & Loan crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s, said that Wall Street accounting fraud flows from a simple recipe: grow by buying high-interest loans, leverage the business by borrowing lots of money and keep next to nothing in reserve against losses.
“You are mathematically guaranteed to report record profits,” he said.
He was not part of the sacrosanct financial sector. That’s pretty much it. Those who advise the government and run the central bank are of the financial sector. Heck, Hank Paulson, treasury secretary who designed the bailouts, was a former CEO of Goldman Sachs.
The net result is that the financial sector gets a free “ticket to loot” while the government follows, cleaning up the messes with money taken from the taxpayer.
How can it be legal to misrate securities and breach duty to prevent fraud in lending on that massive a scale as it occurred .
It was a lending crime spree on all levels ,just so the gamblers could leverage more money and make more money in the casino markets . It was a scheme that used real estate as the underlying asset that was playing off the long term record of mortgage defaults being low ,in spite of them changing the leverage and line between investment banks and commercial banks . If commerical banks can invest in unregulated markets ,while all the while the notes are rated AAA investment grade ,than it was just a scheme to create money ( or leverage )
for leverage betting without proper reserves .
“The elite financial frauds are treating the United States of America‘s criminal justice system and financial markets with utter contempt. They believe they can become wealthy – with impunity – through frauds that cost U.S. households $11 trillion dollars and cost seven million Americans their jobs. Not a single elite fraudster who was instrumental in making the millions of fraudulent loans that drove the crisis has even been indicted – over seven years after the FBI‘s September 2004 warnings that there was an ?epidemic? of mortgage fraud that would cause a financial ?crisis? if it were not stopped.”
Late in the afternoon, in a thread about wall street (finally) downsizing,
“Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
all crashing. Except linkin. I don’t get that one.”
The LNKD story is only two people regularly visit LNKD…
1) Unemployed people hoping against reality to network with other unemployed people to get a job. Ignore the politically “adjusted” unemployment rate, and pay attention to the “labor force participation rate”. Tens of millions of Americans are unemployed (although statistically manipulated to not be counted as “unemployed”) so that’s tens of millions of visitors. You’d think they can’t make money advertising to the unemployed, but money can be made off them, until they stop living in housing and stop eating and stop wearing clothes, etc. When they stop living in housing and eating, it doesn’t matter anymore because thats when the riots start. Therefore until the revolution, LNKD is a great place to advertise. Why there’s more unemployed people every month, and that trend it not reversing anytime soon, just look at the labor force participation graphs…
2) Companies rich enough to hire recruiters to hire people. Well, that money optimistically for someones salary is blood in the water for the advertisers. Here’s a self selected population of mid to high level spending authorized corporate people trying to find a way to spend money… advertisers start to drool.
As for the others circling the bowl as the web 2.0 bubble gets flushed:
Groupon, could never find a better stereotype of try once never return. Also they offer nothing but services that are dramatically overpriced and useless to most people. Lets see… massage. Well I don’t want one and I feel it would be awkward even for free, but I feel a fair price for me to ask would be as much as $10/hr to give someone one, at least if there’s no happy ending involved… Oh they regularly charge $100/hr (at that price I’m thinking happy ending must be involved? See that’s the awkward part I’m talking about, should I be expecting that based on the price signals they’re sending or not?) but have a groupon amazing deal for an astounding fantastic 50% off. Hmm still $50/hr LOL this just isn’t happening. I signed up for GRPN when it was new, laughed at the first 20 or so offers, bye bye. I haven’t seen a groupon offer that isn’t of the “overcharge 10x for a service, then cut the price in half” variety. Car detailing, pet grooming ($75 to wash a dog, what the…), massage, aromatherapy, yoga and other trendy exercising classes, etc.
Facebook, you can’t monetize pre-teen schoolyard drama (thats what it is, even if the participants are mostly middle aged women), the visitors are mentally too wound up with who’s dating who and who said what about who and look at the cute pictures. Too wound up about drama means can’t get wound up about the BMW banner ad so why bother buying one, eh who cares about some car if X heard that Y said that Z saw that A dumped B and C might be pregnant. Its the same scenario where XXX videos aren’t shown on free TV, (aside from the crazy fundies whining) although viewership would be extremely high, the advertisers aren’t interested. The most popular bar in town can go out of business if the crowd doesn’t buy any drinks and there’s no cover charge.
Unemployed people hoping against reality to network with other unemployed people to get a job.
My impression of linked-in is that it has always been useless for “networking” while job hunting. Even when the others are unemployed, what you always seem to get as feedback is “we aren’t hiring, in fact, we’re going to have a layoff soon.”
Groupon, could never find a better stereotype of try once never return.
facebook and groupon were classic ponzi schemes designed to enrich wall street and insiders and steal from investors.
HTF can morgan stanley value FB at one price and here we are a few months later and the business according to the stock price is worth 50% and nothing has happened?
Did they teach the scammers how to value a company at some point along the way?
This market has turned into nothing more than a way for them to get your money.
I’m just waiting for the big flush to occur again so they can buy your investments for 50% off again.
I don’t agree that that those websites were “designed” to be a ponzi scheme. They were probably started as sincere companies trying to provide a product. Now, the whole IP process, yeah, that was Wall Street using Groupon and LK as frenzy fodder.
By the way, $10 for a massage is far too little. By the time the spa pays the rent and electric bill, the masseuse would probably draw less than minimum wage, and that’s before being vilified for not paying income taxes. And you wonder why so many people choose to stay on unemployment.
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Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-10 06:26:32
I’ve seen “15 minute” massages advertised at $10. I suppose that these are loss leaders to attract new customers. But when everyone is tightening their belt, especially after buying a long overdue new (or near new) car to replace the clunker with 150K miles on it, finding new customers for services like massages will prove to difficult at best.
Comment by polly
2012-09-10 06:50:08
IP process?
Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-10 08:08:19
I think Oxide meant IPO
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-10 08:11:46
“IP process?”
I think he meant IPO and just typo’ed when leaving off the O.
“HTF can morgan stanley value FB at one price and here we are a few months later and the business according to the stock price is worth 50% and nothing has happened?”
Because the average individual stock buyer is a desperate moron.
They could have had the CEO change his name to Mark Ponziberg, and the thousands and thousands of individual suckers would have still bought up the stock. The P/E was 80. EIGHTY! That just screams “overpriced”. And yet thousands and thousands of lunatics bought it.
It’s not actually illegal to be a lunatic with money to burn. So they burned it. I have no sympathy. The scam was totally obvious.
My impression of linked-in is that it has always been useless for “networking” while job hunting
My take on LinkedIn: It’s overrun with self-promoters. Not very good for networking of any kind. Too much horn tootin’ going on.
OTOH, there’s some very good networking going on right here. I’ve done business with HBB-ers, and I’ve met some of you offline. To a man and woman, very delightful people.
My take on LinkedIn: It’s overrun with self-promoters. Not very good for networking of any kind. Too much horn tootin’ going on.
I don’t think it’s possible to avoid that. Anywhere that contains any real chance of making any money will quickly be filled with self-promoters. It’s human nature. You don’t have to stay connected to them, though.
I get multiple messages every week from recruiters and hiring managers who saw my profile on LinkedIn and want to know if I’m interested in a position.
I see it as a Monster.com that focuses on the candidate instead of the job…
Except that 90% of the jobs he send my way are in the Bay Area.
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Comment by Northeastener
2012-09-10 10:14:55
It’s anecdotal, but many of the developers I’ve worked with in the past 5 years in Boston have relocated to San Francisco/Silicon Valley for jobs. I think it’s one reason why tech is still booming in Boston… we’re losing alot of the talent to CA, so the few that remain are in high demand.
I have bought several things from the FB banners. All were related to things I “liked” and I was glad FB told me about them. For example, I am going to see Peter Gabriel in LA in October, but would never have known about it save for the banner ad.
LNKD story is only two people regularly visit LNKD…
Not sure I can agree with this, vince, based on my personal experience.
I believe I got my current job largely due to LNKD; I was gainfully employed (same place for almost 15yrs), and not particularly looking, but answered a LinkedIn connection request because someone I worked with had left the company and I wanted to keep in touch with him.
It was only a day or two after I created my account that I got contacted by a recruiter, and things progressed from there.
Of course, I know this is a sample-size of one. YMMV, etc.
But if you are in an employment market where competitors are very intent on poaching employees from each other, LNKD can be useful, perhaps more so for the employed than the unemployed…
perhaps more so for the employed than the unemployed…
Exactly. Monster.com does a fine job for those who may be looking actively looking for a job, whether employed or not. LinkedIn is the site recruiters and hiring managers go when they want to poach. Employers prefer those who are currently working vs those who are unemployed, so I see LinkedIn as part of the initial recruiting strategy. If a company can’t grow because it is having trouble hiring, then they start to widen the net and focus more on those who may have a tenuous attachment to the labor force.
I do like LinkedIn as a way to find people I used to work with after I haven’t seen them for a long time. I do like that recruiters for applicable local jobs are able to find me there. I don’t know whether those factors will equal success for them, but my overall impression is positive.
I finally installed Office 2002 (I still had all the disks, etc) on my Windows 7 machine. Outlook seems fine. Word opens but won’t read old files that have been transferred. Open Office seems to be having trouble as well.
Am I going to be able to move the .pst file for Outlook? Is there anything I can do to make the Word docs readable? I’m worried that there are some issues with the 64 bit vs. 32 bit machine stuff.
Nope. Not it. But the others seem to work. Maybe that one file is corrupted. I had picked an unimportant one to try and didn’t want to open something I needed in case the program was actually doing something to the data. I do have back ups, of course, but still didn’t want to mess with it too much.
Newer versions of Outlook use the unicode format, which is more reliable on the NTFS partition, and it allows for larger storage size particularly where attachments are involved. The Exchange/Outlook database is way more robust, and Gmail is an even better solution ditching Outlook’s (local messaging storage) completely.
I’m not using a newer version of Outlook. I installed the old Office suite I already had. I had the key to complete the install and I figured it was worth a try before trying to figure out how to convert everything to Thunderbird on the old machine and then import it. Outlook worked fine, but the old e-mails are still on the old machine. I’d like to retrieve the ones I kept if I can.
I think the problem with the Word file was the file name being too long. It has to be under 200 and some odd characters for the entire file structure. Well, Windows hides the file structure from you so I might have hit just over the limit without realizing it. Other files with shorter names opened just fine.
I really needed a kick in the pants to finish exporting everything from the old machine anyway. I was using the old one just as an e-mail server. Something happened over the weekend which seems to have taken out my router (just used to split the connection among three machines (old one, new one, office one when I have it at home) and the port in the old machine. Maybe a power surge somewhere? Anyway, the old machine is perilously close to 10 years old. The fact that it works at all is a minor miracle, but it is time to retire it. I’ll take out the hard drive and bring it to Goodwill along with the CRT monitor. They will take computers in any state of disrepair, or so their website says. Maybe they have a program to train people in computer repair?
Oddly enough, the printer I got at the same time is just fine.
BERLIN (Reuters) - The euro zone could break up if people living in crisis-stricken southern European countries do not accept structural reforms in the coming years, the head of Germany’s BGA trade association said on Monday.
Anton Boerner also dismissed concerns that Germany, Europe’s largest economy, could sink into recession in 2012 and said he expected German exports to increase both this year and next.
“If people do not say yes (to structural reforms), then the euro will not be able to exist in its current form,” Boerner told Reuters in an interview.
“If the southern European states say yes, we accept the challenges … then the euro will be stronger than ever before,” he added.
…
(Reuters) - Global stocks and the euro dipped on Monday as investors cashed in some of last week’s sharp gains ahead of a German ruling on the euro zone’s new bailout fund, Dutch elections and potential new stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The European Central Bank’s statement last week that it was prepared to buy an unlimited amount of strained euro zone government bonds pushed European shares to a 13-month high and the euro to a four-month peak on hopes it could mark a turning point in the bloc’s 2-1/2 year crisis.
Investors started the week by taking some of that profit off the table. The MSCI index of top global shares was down 0.1 ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, with the euro and stock markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt all slightly lower.
U.S. stock index futures also pointed to a lower open on Wall Street, with futures for the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 all down just over 0.2 percent.
Europe faces another testing week, with Dutch voters going to the polls and Germany’s constitutional court set to rule on new powers for the European Stability Mechanism, the euro zone’s new bailout fund, both on Wednesday.
Since ECB President Mario Draghi first mooted the ECB’s new crisis plan on July 26, world stocks have rallied more than 8 percent, euro zone blue chips have jumped almost 20 percent and the euro has risen more than 4 percent. Analysts are wondering whether the gains can continue.
“The Draghi effect obviously helped the markets hugely, so people are likely to be a bit more hesitant this week,” said Hans Peterson, global head of investment strategy at SEB private banking.
“Risk appetite is likely to be on the way up, but we have to clear some hurdles, and the things in Europe have to go according to plan. The key issue this week is the approval of the ESM by the German constitutional court.”
Strategists at Goldman Sachs also issued an upbeat note on equities, saying that while there were worries over China’s wobbling growth, the brighter European news and signs of gradual improvement in the U.S. were both positives.
“There is still room for market rallying,” they said, citing their target for the Eurostoxx 50 to hit 2,700 points in the next 12 months. “From current levels, however, we expect further gains through to year-end, but at a slower pace,” they added.
…
Goldman Sachs knows full well that retail investors (OPM) tend to buy and hold on phantom phundamentals, while GS transacts in microseconds.
I’m guessing that GS has already bought Eurozone stocks at bottom prices. Now they are asking OPM to buy and pump up the price for them. Then GS can sell at the high price, and when Europe inevitably crashes, it’s the OPM that will get the shaft.
Then, of course, GS can mop up again on the other end by re-buying the crashed stocks and/or cashing out the short sales.
OPM is stuck. They can’t not participate in the stock market; few other places give a decent return. There are no pensions anymore. Social Security is not enough to live on, and that’s assuming it’s not dismantled. They can’t work towards a paid-off house, HBB won’t let them. They can’t work at Wal-Mart; their bodies can’t handle it, and anyway Wally would rather hire a young healthy single desperate pay off college loans. What is OPM supposed to do besides go “Home” to be made into soylent green?
“I’m guessing that GS has already bought Eurozone stocks at bottom prices. Now they are asking OPM to buy and pump up the price for them. Then GS can sell at the high price, and when Europe inevitably crashes, it’s the OPM that will get the shaft.
Then, of course, GS can mop up again on the other end by re-buying the crashed stocks and/or cashing out the short sales.”
My guess agrees with yours. Megabank, Inc cashes in on ginormous volatility waves, which generate opportunities to offload shitty assets on greater fool buyers as a wave approaches a crest, and shorting opportunities to be exercised upon wave collapse.
The bigger the volatility waves, the better the fleecing.
The regular retail investor has no chance against the likes of Goldman Sachs. Above, I said that OPM buys and holds on fundamentals, but even more accurately, OPM simply doesn’t have the time to play market games. OPM is doing other jobs like teaching, or delivering packages, or doing construction or IT or some other career. GS spends all day essentially day-trading on the fact that OPM (maybe) rebalances every year or so.
It’s funny. The guy who inspected my foundation proudly showed me the pictures of the computers he used for his day-trading operation. I thought, Whatever, dude. Shiny monitors or no; you’re the guy on his knees in my crawlspace.
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Comment by Carl Morris
2012-09-10 10:37:05
Shiny monitors or no; you’re the guy on his knees in my crawlspace.
“Shiny monitors or no; you’re the guy on his knees in my crawlspace.”
This credit bubble and bust has inspired an untold number of shoeshine bubble moments. One of my favs was when I was closing on a new car loan in early 2005, shortly after we moved to San Diego, only to find myself advising the loan officer on what to do about her condo investments.
And here I thought you might be a troll… not the the kind of troll that hangs around on blogs inciting arguments and spreading dis-information, rather those mythical monsters who live under bridges and extort travelers who seek passage over the bridge.
Last weekend I went to CA to a family gathering. Spent some time with my sister who now works for an assisted living placement service.
Let’s say you fall and break a hip, or have a stoke with some minor impairment of motor function, or… the dreaded Alzheimers….
Well, she meets you, figures out your income stream, and assuming you have AT LEAST $3200 a month, helps you find an assisted living facility. Even with Medical, that $3200 a month is absolute bare minimum for assisted living. If you don’t qualify for Medical (Medicaid) it is about double that.
The average person she deals with gets about half that from Social Security.
The Medical (Medicare) requirements are pretty rough. One house, one car and no more than $5000 in other assets, and that includes 401(k) accessible funds.
Basically, you need a pension, something like $1 million to set up an annuity that will pay better than $1600 a month… or …. and this is going to make me sound housing pimp-y, The ability to rent out that one house you are allowed to own, for enough income to make up the difference between SS and the out of pocket expense.
For a lot of the people she deals with, they have pensions, but the nursing homes and assisted living centers are already seeing a drop in the % of people with pensions.
If you don’t have a pension, or annuity, or a house you can rent out, and your family wants to help out, then a lot of places want an escrow account set up with enough money to cover a full year’s of the difference between SS and the cost of the assisted living facility’s fees…. say $25K-ish. The escrow is to make sure they get paid for the time while they are kicking you out, which can take up to a year.
So, you may have low expenses right now…. just do not break a hip or have a stroke or any other medical condition that will require assisted living.
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Comment by scdave
2012-09-10 09:35:12
just do not break a hip or have a stroke or any other medical condition that will require assisted living ??
Oh, don’t worry, Mitt & Paul Ryan are going to give you a insurance voucher for $6,000. to take care of trivial stuff like that…
Comment by Montana
2012-09-10 10:29:25
MediCal and Medicare are not the same thing.
Comment by Montana
2012-09-10 10:34:09
…anyway, here the asset limit is 2000 and if you qualify for Medicaid, you get some sort of Medicaid waiver that actually makes *some* of the assisted living places affordable. Fortunately the one person I have been helping with this has very little except a small government pension.
And, I can’t believe California lets you keep and rent out a house if you are in assisted living with MediCal assistance. I thought you could keep it only if a spouse (or maybe some other dependent) continued to live in it.
Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-10 10:58:54
“Oh, don’t worry, Mitt & Paul Ryan are going to give you a insurance voucher for $6,000. to take care of trivial stuff like that…”
Medicare doesn’t cover long-term care, only Medicaid does, and that means being destitute first.
Comment by polly
2012-09-10 13:48:31
Medical is MEDICAID. Not Medicare.
And I bet you can’t have that house to qualify either. Not unless the other spouse is still living in it. Even if you do, there will be a lien on the house to be paid off after both spouses die.
Medicare does not pay for long term placement in a nursing home. Never has. Medicare will max out at about 100 days of recovery from an injury or disease or something. After that, it is maintenance, not medical care and is not covered by a program that is only health insurance.
Comment by Montana
2012-09-10 15:20:11
Point that out, and the rubes just think you’re being “technical.” LOL!
Comment by Blue Skye
2012-09-10 16:01:01
SS is enough to live on, it’s just not enough to die a slow death on.
Andy Wong/Associated Press - Workers load goods on a truck near a wholesale market for fashion clothing in Beijing Monday, Sept. 10, 2012. China’s imports shrank unexpectedly in August in a sign its economic slump is worsening and the Chinese president warned growth could slow further, prompting expectations of possible new stimulus spending.
By Associated Press, Published: September 9 | Updated: Monday, September 10, 3:58 AM
BEIJING — China’s imports shrank unexpectedly in August in a sign its economic slump is worsening and the Chinese president warned growth could slow further, prompting expectations of possible new stimulus spending.
Imports declined 2.6 percent from a year earlier, below analysts’ expectations of growth in low single digits, data showed Monday. That came on top of August’s decline in factory output to a three-year low and other signs growth is still decelerating despite repeated stimulus efforts.
The weakness in China’s demand for imports is bad news for exporters in Southeast Asia, Australia, Brazil and elsewhere that are counting on its appetite for oil, iron ore, industrial components and other goods to offset anemic Western markets.
Analysts expect Chinese growth that fell to a three-year low of 7.6 percent in the latest quarter to rebound late this year or in early 2013. But they say it likely will be too weak to drive a global recovery without improvement in the United States, which is struggling with a sluggish recovery, and debt-crippled Europe.
President Hu Jintao cited slack exports and unbalanced domestic growth as challenges for a Chinese recovery.
“Pressure for economic growth to slow is obvious,” Hu said at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Vladivostok, Russia, according to a text released by the Chinese government.
…
Analysts expect Chinese growth that fell to a three-year low of 7.6 percent in the latest quarter to rebound late this year or in early 2013. But they say it likely will be too weak to drive a global recovery without improvement in the United States, which is struggling with a sluggish recovery, and debt-crippled Europe.
And without those luscious export markets growth will probably continue to shrink.
“Officials at all levels of government are under pressure to report good economic results to Beijing as they wait for promotions, demotions and transfers to cascade down from Beijing.”
In the Nashville area residents are whining about “smaller” homes being built in their neighborhoods. But at least one subdivision appears to be happy it is no longer a ghost town.
A buncha my upstate family peeps just came down for a wedding, and I am enduring a fresh round of Florida panic. I have no interest in raising my kids here, and I haven’t a clue as to how to fix that.
My advice continues to be the same: don’t buy while you have annual or semi-annual waves of strong desire to flee the state. When it has been a couple of years since you have had an episode, and you can finally envision wanting to raise your kids there, and prices are in line with fundamentals—then it may be time to buy.
That is advice I am taking. My wife will finish grad school is Dec. of 2013, which means I am committed to about 18 more months. I will certainly not b buying before then…
NE said “as long as you can live with high taxes, a socialist government and judicial system, and expensive real estate, the majority of which hasn’t been updated in 50 years (and still has the lead paint and asbestos to prove it).”
There are several recurring FL issues for me:
1. It’s not safe for children to ride bikes / explore
2. It is flat
3. There are no seasons
4. 8 hours in any direction from I live still yields 1-3.
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Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-10 11:49:22
But, but … you have Walt Disney World in your backyard!
I love where I live. It may not be for everyone, and I know I pay a premium for living in San Francisco, but if you are lucky you find a place that just “fits”.
I guess the same goes for finding a spouse. If you are lucky, you find somebody who is the right fit. It might not make sense to everyone else, but it works for you and makes you happy.
Ditto for your career.
It has been feeling touch and go for the past few years: knowing that we could not afford to continue renting here and not wanting to leave our jobs (which, by the way, I love my job).
Our funding was approved and we should close by the end of the week. The house is a dream - nicer than any rental I’ve ever had - and monthly PITI putting us back to the rent we were paying in 1999. We are leaving our neighborhood, which we have loved, but it has become way too shi-shi for us.
Welcome to San Francisco. Now go homo.
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Comment by Avocado
2012-09-10 13:06:40
You cant beat SLO. You just need to bring your job with you.
Perfect weather, great schools, and lots to do outside!
Comment by polly
2012-09-10 14:41:37
Congratulations, sfrenter. I will be glad to see you change your handle after all this works out for you.
For those of us who need a big city, this bubble has been agony. Fortunately, my rental works very well for me. If I was facing NYC style rent increases with stagnant wages, I might be singing a different tune.
Comment by sfrenter
2012-09-10 15:20:57
Avocado,
I have considered SLO. Good weather, good surf. It is a little small townish for me, but the deal killer is the proximity to a major airport. I love the fact that I live 15 minutes from SFO.
What? “Nowgohomo”? Oh now hush a minute, Pimple. I’m thrilled for you guys, sf. I know you’ve taken some serious flack for your decision to buy, but after confronting and answering it all this time, at least you know your reasoning was sound! I truly hope your home (not house) becomes everything you’ve wanted it to be for your family.
I have no interest in raising my kids here, and I haven’t a clue as to how to fix that.
Move to Massachusetts. It’s a great place to raise a family…
as long as you can live with high taxes, a socialist government and judicial system, and expensive real estate, the majority of which hasn’t been updated in 50 years (and still has the lead paint and asbestos to prove it).
On second thought, don’t move here. I hear North Carolina is pretty nice…
Oh my, a little ugly A framish house on the windswept coast. Very depressed area. The Amish from the Finger Lakes are migrating there because land is cheap.
LOL, they don’t show you the ugly windmill filled skyline of Wolfe Island. You can’t give the houses away, yet wishful prices abound.
I missed yesteday’s discussion about mal-adjustment. But here is one aspect of it. If development stays low, we are going to have housing shortages in this country — even as millions of homes remain empty due to their location or ownership status.
It isn’t a brainwashing. It’s an observation. Housing is in short supply and prices remain ridiculous in the NY area. There’s too much in Phoenix, Atlanta, Florida, the Inland Empire, Las Vegas.
That’s a misallocation of resources. Some of that excess housing should have been built here. But speculation put housing in places where it couldn’t be sold or rented.
But speculation put housing in places where it couldn’t be sold or rented.”
Many cities don’t want new houses. they are slow growth. this causes a shortage.
Supply and demand I remember the Phoenix thought was home prices won’t go down as much percentage wise in Phoenix as costal CA because they are much lower priced in Phoenix.
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Comment by In Colorado
2012-09-10 11:46:27
Many cities don’t want new houses. they are slow growth. this causes a shortage.
Boulder, CO is such a place.
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-09-10 12:00:47
I could see us being the last to fall just because there are so many people commuting in each day who would prefer to live in Boulder if it was affordable. I think most of them would have to lose their jobs for Boulder to fall significantly…
Comment by goon squad
2012-09-10 12:53:18
so many people commuting in each day
Because nothing says “green” or “progressive” like the parking lot of commuters stuck on US 36 in and out of Boulder every day.
Boulder has a great bike path system, but it’s only for the California equity locusts and trustafarians who can afford to live there.
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-09-10 14:09:57
Because nothing says “green” or “progressive” like the parking lot of commuters stuck on US 36 in and out of Boulder every day.
Hey, if they want to be green they gotta pay up to live here. Saving the planet ain’t cheap, and it ain’t for loosers.
I have an older friend (approaching 70) who owns (outright) at least three houses there, only one of which he uses part time during the year. They’re seventies tract homes in need of cosmetic upgrade, not rented out, just sitting there empty. (One belonged to deceased mother, one to ex-wife.)
He’s talking about selling them and buying a place in Aspen (yay) and isn’t particularly enthusiastic about playing landlord again. But given what I expect to be the coming inflation, and Boulder’s relatively well-educated workforce maybe it would be better to fix them up, hire a manager, and rent them out?
Anyone have any thoughts to share?
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-09-10 15:41:38
1. Capital gains tax rates are unlikely to be any lower in the future than they are today;
2. There are a whole bunch of groups backed by institutional capital that are likely to take home rental pools public. One such group was founded by the founder of Public Storage (don’t know if he has plans to take his portfolio public, but he certainly has the know-how).
3. Even in good times, homes are relatively illiquid (can’t get to the money fast if you want it), with a high cost of transactions (6%+).
If it were me, I would sell, pay my tax at 15% (plus state), and as a hedge against inflation buy publicly traded property REITs (and potentially home rental REITs after their IPOs).
The cash yields will likely be lower (with some cash flow being retained by the REIT), liquidity much higher, hassle factor near zero, and IF there is inflation, you are much likely to get some benefit with a broad group of assets than with a small cluster that, despite any broad inflation, will be quite dependent on what is happening in Boulder.
On the other hand, if he never sells, and takes the properties to the grave, he will never need to pay tax anyway, so perhaps the extra hassle for being landlord is worth the extra cash flow…
Free advice is worth what you paid…play at your own risk.
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-09-10 15:47:40
Considering that prices are still high here (and climbing as of this summer) I would advise him to sell now or next spring at the latest without putting much work into them.
If he fixes them up and gets a manager he’ll make some money but it will be a pain. The best rents will be from students, and the place will be trashed every year.
If he doesn’t want to deal with either of those options he should look for people like us who would put up with some of the problems involved in that kind of house in return for below market, low hassle renting.
Construction has been at multi-decade lows for pretty much all real estate sectors:
Retail, Industrial, Office, Hospitality, etc.
This will be one source of inflation as occupancy levels rise (which will push rents higher). I’m not holding my breath on office (too many alternatives to expensive office space with technology, etc.), but the vacancy in the others could shrink considerably in the coming few years.
I’m not holding my breath on office (too many alternatives to expensive office space with technology, etc ??
Irvine Company building 1-mil square feet here two blocks away from the 1-bil dollar 49r’s stadium…A few blocks further Page Mil Ventures is building 750,000 square feet in two towers….A few blocks away from that Sabrato is building four building of about 150,000 square feet each….I could continue but I suspect you get the drift…
I understand what is happening in Silicon Valley. We know some people who are taking part in the building boom in Silicon Valley.
I’m talking about broader trends. My wife works at a tech company in the valley. She works from home about 2 days per week. Many of the others in her office work remotely (from other parts of the country in some cases). Despite this, the company she works for in fact has two offices for her (in two different buildings), and also has offices for the workers who are mostly remote.
My point in all this is that companies that are trying to figure out how to cut down RE space to save costs have more ways to do it these days. As rents rise, there will be more of an incentive for businesses to do this.
There still is not a good replacement for a new warehouse or distribution facility.
The overall development trends that I’m talking about are national. Aggregate development across product types is at about 0.7% of existing stock. The approximately 30 year average is about 1.8% of existing stock.
Broken down by product type, all are below their multi-decade average.
But vacancy is twice the historic normal rate. Assuming 700K units construction, and 1 million formation and 200K replacement rate, then it will take 20 years just to get back to historically normal vacancy rates.
I know you are hitching your horse to the idea that the 10 million excess empty houses are in areas people do not, and will not live.
Okay, but that 700K current construction rate will go a long way to keeping up with the few areas that may be a little tight…. especially with net illegal immigration at 0, slowling legal immigration, and household formation still below demographic normed level.
AND, most of those places that are tight are because, and I realize this will make me seem pimp-y, there really is a lack of land in that area. I went to San Fran earlier this year. There really isn’t enough room on the peninsula for the tens of million of people that would want to live there. Sorry, but the majority are going to have to bridge it in. Ditto for Manhatten.
That isn’t to say that there won’t be price drops in those areas, just that there won’t be 1 million housing units being built every year in coastal CA or on Manhattan.
I’m not sure you were talking to me…I was talking about all product types OTHER than housing.
The fall off in construction was in all product types, not just housing. And commercial product types never got much above their long-term averages during the boom, but are now WAY below long term averages.
The political myth is that Mr. Ryan was the spoiler because he’s an anti-tax purist. His real objection at the time was that the Simpson-Bowles Democrats refused to offer an equal trade on spending. Their non-negotiable demand was that ObamaCare was off the table and there could be no structural reforms in Medicare and Medicaid.
Ultimately three Republicans including Mr. Ryan voted no, and four Democrats voted no, with 11 members in favor.
So in fact Democrats quashed the necessary supermajority even after they first vetoed any serious reform of Medicare. And Mr. Ryan is the “rigid” one?
In any case, even if the deficit commission had reached a consensus, all that would have happened is a fast-track vote in Congress. The bipartisan duo of Jim Cooper and Steve LaTourette later codified Simpson-Bowles, and it bombed on the House floor this April, 382 to 38.
According to Simpson and Bowles (CNBC interview a while back), they are continuing to lobby members of congress, and so far, have increased that 38 substantially.
I’m not holding my breath, but it looks like they are making SOME progress.
Norquist might have been diabolically brilliant in getting the Republicans to sign their “no tax increases” pledge.
No politician would ever sign a “No spending increases” pledge. That would have gotten Norquist laughed out of the room. But a no tax pledge doesn’t say anything about spending. The politicians can continue to vote for every debt-funded spending increase they see. Which they do.
The net result of all this is Norquist might have engineered a collapse of the system. This machine, just like Greece, will not stop spending until it absolutely, totally, has to. Because it simply can’t find more currency. However, Greece can’t print currency. But the US can.
Right now there’s no consequence to continuing the current profligacy, and there are actually benefits, even though storm clouds are on the horizon.
“Oh, it’ll be fine.” *dismissive wave*
But not preparing for it not be “fine” is a dereliction of duty.
BTW, California created it’s own kind of tax pledge…without supermajority in the state houses, no new taxes. If Sacramento wants new taxes, they need to go directly to the people…Brown is going to try it this November, but we’ll see if people will go along. Apparently public support for the proposition is waning (which is a bit surprising since it disproportionately targets the high earners).
Average Chicago Teacher makes $75,000/year for 9 months of work
Almost free health care.
Insane pensions
But they are professionals and are doing this for the children.
Did I mention they are some of the largest campaign contributors? Yeah - it all goes to democrats.
——————————-
Chicago teachers strike for first time in 25 years; contingency sites ready, charters remain open
Chicago Sun-Times | September 10, 2012 | ROSALIND ROSSI
Chicago teachers began walking the picket line for the first time in 25 years Monday morning, leaving parents to scramble for alternatives for their children.
…..Vitale said the contract amounted to a 16 percent raise over four years for the average teacher when factoring other increases. And the raises could not be rescinded for lack of funds — which is what happened this past school year, angering teachers and helping to set the stage for Monday’s strike.
“This is not a small commitment we’re making at a time when your fiscal situation is really challenged,” Vitale said. A $1 billion deficit awaits the system at the end of this school year, officials have estimated. And the district drained its reserve funds to plug this year’s budget……
Did I mention they are some of the largest campaign contributors? Yeah - it all goes to democrats ??
So do Fire & Police Unions…Would you consider generally that group to be “Democrats” ?? So, they vote in their self interest wether they be democrat or republican…So, whats new with government unions…Its not partisan my friend…In fact, in the Police & Fire case, its Hypocritical…They likely vote Dem in locals & Rep in State & National.
So you think it’s because the teacher earn a middle class wage? That it has nothing to do with the demographics of the students who attend said schools?
Public schools in my little burg are relatively peaceful. Of course, it helps that we are a lilly white town with little income disparity.
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Comment by sfrenter
2012-09-10 11:46:42
Here’s a little true story:
Good friend worked for many years at a tough, inner-city school. Middle school math teacher. Her students consistently scored basic and below-basic on standardized tests.
Last year she transferred to a high-performing public middle school (mostly middle class kids) on the other side of town.
Same subject (6th grade math), same teacher, same curriculum, different student demographics.
Test scores were released 2 weeks ago. Lo and behold, her students all scored proficient and advanced.
Wow, in less than 12 months she somehow became a much, much better teacher. Merit pay! Let’s give her a raise!
If I were to go back to school for another degree I would love to do a quantitative study on teachers like her.
Comment by polly
2012-09-10 14:52:44
To be fair, when they try to measure teacher effectiveness now, they compare the students against their previous years (or early year) tests. It is a huge problem for the teachers in excellent schools. If your class largely scored well above grade level the last year, one or two kids with colds on the test day getting bad grades can get the teacher in serious trouble.
Because they can pick and chose their students, unlike public schools which are mandated to teach everyone, including non English speaking illegal kids?
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Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
2012-09-10 13:07:45
Exactly…
My 14 y/o daughter attends a public school in Phoenix Union school district, right downtown in a bad neighborhood.
But, it is a limited enrollment high school with no more than 100 kids per grade. They hand pick the kids with high test scores, no history of trouble, and letters of recommendation for previous teachers.
Of course, every kid is also an honors student, with the honors program right in the basic curriculum.
Been open for 5 years. Not a single fight, weapon, gang issue, drug problem… pretty much the only disciplinary issues is inappropriate use of the laptop that each student is issued.
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-09-10 15:02:03
And parents that will whoop your behind if you get in trouble at school.
I went to Catholic school. Never feared the nuns (they were really nice at least to me), but I dreaded going home with any hint that I was in trouble at school. My parents more than made up for the friendly nuns.
You almost can’t educate a kid with parents that don’t care about or value education. A few will break the mold, but very few. Parents are the deciding factor in today’s education, I don’t care how good the teachers are.
Comment by polly
2012-09-10 16:09:50
Even good parents can’t be effective if they are working 2 or 3 lucky ducky part time jobs. Being a parent takes time.
Comment by San Diego RE Bear
2012-09-10 16:57:08
“Even good parents can’t be effective if they are working 2 or 3 lucky ducky part time jobs. Being a parent takes time.”
I agree Polly. But it’s still better to have a parent that values education and has to work three jobs over one that works one (or none on welfare) degrades education every chance they get.
I wonder what the amount of compensation per student is? Out here, class sizes have grown considerably over the last few years. My friend (who just left teaching), was making in the mid-$30’s took a 5% pay cut last year even though her hours and students increased, and she had virtually no money left for classroom materials.
It will be interesting to see what happens once the unions are busted, schools are further privatized, and we can get away with paying lazy teachers something closer to what they deserve (like ten bucks an hour, not thirty or forty).
There is huge money to be made in privatizing the school system. It makes perfect sense why the greedy teachers are being targeted.
Geeze, a few years ago teachers were the savior of our future generations and placed on a pedestal. Now that the opportunities of wealth hoarding diminish, they are being demonized. (Maybe that’s why there was such a push to go into teaching, with the anticipation of flooding the market with supply just at the time wages were going to be further suppressed?)
This should bode well for this country’s already stellar primary and secondary school systems.
That is THEFT from the Producers. F*ing parasites!
They should close those schools and fire the teachers and give those dumb kidz a McGuffey Reader so they can do their own libtard book learning, and use the tax savings to give tax cuts to the Job Creators!
Still looking for what they pay for active teachers, but for retired teachers it looks like the retired person has to pay a huge chunk of the cost. Looks like the plan pays about $500-700 of the monthly cost. For an individual, that is 2/3s-ish of the price, but if you are covering your spouse it is under half. For family… Plan is $3K and the member has to pay $2300 of that?
Yeah, no sh*t! And fire all those $50/hour union janitors who retire after 10 years on $200K pensions and let those grubby kidz clean their own schools like Newt says! LOL
“By comparison, teachers in New York City earn an average of $73,751. That would be less than the average $76,000 average salary for Chicago teachers cited by CPS, but more than the $71,000 average cited by the union. Depending on which is accurate, Chicago would either be first or second in the nation in average teacher salary. However, Los Angeles teachers make $67,600. The number drops to about $54,000 in Dallas, and just over $52,000 in Miami. “
At what point does pushing on a string lose all heft?
ABREAST OF THE MARKET
Updated September 9, 2012, 7:47 p.m. ET
Investors Corner Fed Expectations for Action Drive Rally, but Upside Is Unclear
By MATT PHILLIPS
For some investors, bad news is good news.
The U.S. economy added 96,000 jobs last month, the government said on Friday. That is fewer than Wall Street analysts were expecting and the latest sign of a sluggish recovery, some economists said.
Yet the prices of everything from stocks and gold to Treasury and mortgage debt rose. The rallies reflect near certainty among investors that the Fed will announce additional monetary easing as soon as Thursday, when a scheduled two-day policy meeting ends.
The reaction shows how markets have come to depend on central bank stimulus since the financial crisis, and underscores the high stakes for the Fed and its chairman, Ben Bernanke.
Some analysts and investors say the Fed must announce a big stimulus plan quickly or risk disappointing the market, potentially setting the stage for a broad selloff. The European Central Bank last week spurred a sharp stock-market rally by announcing a bond-buying program that will make it easier for troubled countries to issue new bonds.
Yet a new round of Fed bond-buying would be controversial. The presidential election looms in November and many observers are asking whether central-bank actions are reaching a point of diminishing returns.
“It’s pretty clear that some of the rally that we’ve seen over the summer has been driven by the expectation that the Fed will announce another round of quantitative easing,” says John Higgins, senior markets economist with Capital Economics, a London-based research firm. “I think the question is whether there will continue to be a positive impact when the Fed announces it.”
…
See the recent article on zerohedge this morning, highlighting a rant against the Fed. Former Reagan OMB Director David Stockman was on CNBC this morning and said “The Fed (and the lunatics that run it) are telling the whole world untruths about the cost of money and the price of risk.”
Title of the article is Stockman: “Ron Paul Is Right: The Fed, And The Lunatics That Run It, Are The Heart Of The Problem”
It’s always been about the mis-pricing of risk. Ben, if you have a chance to watch the clip, this more than anything should highlight the salient points about our discussion regarding Bond yields as an indicator…
BEIJING—Greentown China Holdings Ltd. has a problem. The property developer has to repay nearly $3 billion in debt in the next 12 months, but it had only $1.2 billion in cash and bank deposits as of the end of June, according to its latest regulatory filing.
To stay afloat, Greentown, based in the wealthy eastern province of Zhejiang, is counting on its banks rolling over loans.
Suntech is one of several Chinese firms intending to roll over credits.
“There is no problem for us to get the loan extensions,” said Simon Fung, Greentown’s chief financial officer. Mr. Fung pointed to a coup the company pulled off last year: Even as Beijing moved to tame the housing market, which hurt the company’s profits, Greentown managed to get its banks to stretch out the maturities of all its loans that came due, totaling about 20 billion yuan ($3.2 billion).
Greentown isn’t alone in counting on banks’ willingness not to ask for their money back when it is due.
Although Chinese lenders don’t disclose how many loans they extend or modify, the practice is becoming increasingly popular, according to companies and banking executives. The strategy—called “extend and pretend” by critics—is raising alarms among analysts and bank investors. They warn that it could add to banks’ increasing piles of bad loans and may restrict banks’ ability to lend to bolster the slowing economy.
…
Price/SqFt: 157.56
Moorpark, CA 93021 Active
Beds: 5 Baths: 3 (0 0 0 0) (FTHQ) Sq Ft: 2856 Lot Sz: 7730sqft
Area: NMP Yr:
Remarks
Short sale subject to lender’s approval. UNFINISHED POOL and UNFINISHED back yard. Please do not go to the backyard due to safety hazard. Engineer structural report available upon acceptance with estimate of $165,000 + $3500 of work needed. Buyer to do their own investigations and inspections. Please email the listing agent to arrange showing. Agents please check private remarks.Monthly association fee is an approximate and will up date the system when know the exact amount, 2 different HOA dues. Property is located in Melo Roos community.
” $165,000 + $3500 of work needed” I don’t even know what this means ? 168,500 of work needed for a pool !!
I remember these homes. back in ‘05 I went to open house and saw a circus of people including a group of young yuppie looking folks eating McDonalds at the open house dinning table and calling ” brokers” to buy as many as possible. The very young realtor had a sheepish look on his face saying most were all sold out on the first day of open house. Now look at them half finished wrecks with melo Roos and 2 HOA’s hahaha
I was in Monterey on Friday and went into Whole Foods to buy some rice as they have quite a variety. While there I checked out the meat and got sticker shock. Beef prices have doubled. Checked out other local markets and found beef pricing had also taken a jump.
On the housing front: have two friends who bought a second home recently for quote retirement. One in Cambria, one in Palm Springs. Neither needed a remodel but the first thing both did was to pull the kitchen counters and install stone, second thing was to put in hardwood flooring.
Yeah makes one wonder doesn’t it? The effects of the latest drought caused ranchers to slash their herds and that resulted in a crash in the spot market. Foreign buyers swooped in and bought tons and even our own government snapped up a few hundred tons and then there was a spike in refrigerated storage as everyone scrambled to freeze stuff.
Bottom line - next years meat will be way more expensive.
Extreme weather related events can disrupt markets world wide. Just look at the side effects in the Arctic right now. http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/09/the-rush-to-exploit-an-increasingly-ice-free-arctic/
Page 5 is telling…showing how much progress non-judicial states have been making in clearing non-current loans, and how little judicial states have been making.
Furthermore, page 8 shows the effect of all that clearing of distress on home prices (as evidenced by lots of underwater borrowers). This is less the case in judicial states.
Again I ask, which judicial state is going to be the first to open the floodgates on their foreclosure processing? That state will experience a significant leg down in home prices.
I’m not sure I’d go that far (50% decrease from today)…the situation will be much different when judicial states start to foreclose, more net jobs in those economies, lower rates than when this mess started, more ways to refinance underwater borrowers (thanks to DC for that), capital has formed to buy homes as rentals (which will allow for a faster demand uptick as more distress enters the market), etc.
Additionally, even if these states start to foreclose more quickly, I doubt they will open the floodgates to the same extent as non-judicial states did in 2008-2010 (robosigning scandal and settlement will cause things to happen more slowly–even if the pace was picked up overall).
I’m not saying prices won’t fall, but I’d be very surprised if they fall by 50% from where they are today in judicial states.
“The responsibilities and qualifications are extensive: The ideal candidate needs to have a college degree and two years’ experience in a similar job, the ability to work with children and adults, some computer savvy and a level of fitness that goes well beyond what most people can achieve.
Broken legs, separated shoulders and pulled hamstrings? Threats, insults, even assaults? All part of the job.”
“The list of responsibilities has 12 items, from entertaining at games to developing new routines to maintaining the website, Facebook page and Twitter account. Not to mention the more than 300 personal appearances a year.
The list of qualifications is even longer. It includes the ability to handle extended hours and extreme heat, and to perform on your feet for three hours and run up and down the arena steps numerous times during those three hours. All while entertaining a crowd.”
From California with its eminent domain proposals? From Europe with its increasing economic strains? From a modern day Princip? Or from a direction completely unguessed? The last would the most fitting entrance for the swan.
“Or from a direction completely unguessed? The last would the most fitting entrance for the swan.”
+1
Nassim Taleb a little while back noted that he was invested in the Euro. His reason? We know all about the European problems. If there is to be a Black Swan, it is likely to come from a different place.
France’s richest man Bernard Arnault sues over ‘rich idiot’ headline
France’s richest man, Bernard Arnault, said on Monday he would sue a newspaper over a front-page headline – “Get lost, you rich idiot!” - which came after he said he was applying for Belgian nationality.
Nearly 700 Florida foreclosures sold in bulk to private investor
By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
A San Diego company bought 699 Florida foreclosures Thursday in a bulk deal with the Federal Housing Finance Agency that included $12.3 million in cash.
The sale to Pacifica Companies is the first in a new program aimed at reducing the so-called shadow inventory of foreclosed homes by offering blocks of properties to private investors. The investors are expected to hold the homes as rentals for an unrevealed period of time before they can be sold.
Florida had three tranches of homes, including 376 in Southeast Florida, which had been repossessed and were owned by federal mortgage backer Fannie Mae.
In addition to the $12.3 million in cash, Fannie Mae will receive 90 percent of the proceeds from the homes until it collects $49.3 million, according to a transaction summary released Monday. After that, Fannie Mae and Pacifica Companies will split the proceeds. Pacifica will also receive 20 percent of all gross rental income as a management fee for overseeing daily operations of the rentals. The estimated transaction value for Fannie Mae is $78.1 million.
“The transaction is designed to promote home price stability, improve quality of housing stock and enhance rental inventory of markets by utilizing a rent-and-hold strategy,” according to the summary.
Nationwide, about 2,490 Fannie Mae-owned homes were being offered in bulk sales to investors. There were no acceptable bids on 541 Atlanta-area homes, according to a Federal Housing Finance Agency announcement Monday. The other properties are in Illinois, Arizona, California and Nevada.
A source familiar with the sales said the Atlanta homes will either be repackaged or sold individually through the government’s traditional foreclosure process or the website http://www.homepath.com.
The program has faced opposition from the National Realtors Association for taking away inventory in high-interest areas where the supply of homes has dried up.
“Florida is one of the hottest markets in the U.S. and there’s absolutely no reason to sell those homes in bulk,” said Dean Hooker, owner of Pompano Beach-based Southeast REO, which specializes in bank-owned homes. “People are knocking down the doors for properties.”
In Palm Beach County, 6,788 single-family homes were on the market in July, 43 percent fewer than last year during the same time and 50 percent fewer than in 2010.
Statewide, there were 100,657 single-family homes for sale last month. That’s about a five-month supply and 41 percent below last year.
But others believe private investors are better equipped to handle the distressed properties.
“They are more capable of managing the properties, getting them in the right condition and putting them on the market for rent or sale,” Boca Raton-based Realtor Tim Kinzler said last month. “It’s about finding a balance.”
Pacifica Companies said it was not prepared to comment Monday. Founded in 1978, Pacifica is a real estate development firm that owns and manages hotels and housing communities in the U.S., Mexico and India.
he sale to Pacifica Companies is the first in a new program aimed at reducing the so-called shadow inventory of foreclosed homes by offering blocks of properties to private investors. The investors are expected to hold the homes as rentals for an unrevealed period of time before they can be sold.
And let me guess: They have no prior property management experience and have no clue of what’s involved. Have fun, guys!
My landlord is probably knocking down his secretary for renting the apartment next to mine to a buncha Columbia grad-students who are proceeding to trash the effin’ eff out of it.
Incidentally, it used to be rented by a very nice well-to-do couple with whom I’m still very close with. Heck, I’m still very close with his grandparents!
Police identify driver that hit Jupiter officer on Obama motorcade
By Cynthia Roldan
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Authorities have released the identity of the driver who crashed into a Jupiter Police officer Sunday as he tried controlling traffic for the presidential motorcade on Interstate 95.
Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office investigators say Susan Holloway, 56, of West Palm Beach, was driving on the 45th Street on-ramp to I-95 when she began accelerating to merge into traffic.
Meanwhile, President Obama’s motorcade was travelling south on I-95 on its way to his campaign stop at the convention center in West Palm Beach.
Jupiter Police Officer Bruce Edwin St. Laurent was heading southbound on a motorcycle as part of the motorcade when he pulled in front of Holloway in an attempt to stop traffic, the report said. That’s when Holloway crashed into Laurent’s motorcycle, which threw him off.
Laurent was rushed to St. Mary’s Medical Center, where he was declared dead.
Laurent’s motorcycle was caught underneath Holloway’s truck. Investigators say she tried to avoid the crash by “making a heavy brake application.”
Authorities said no arrests have been made in the case, as it is still being investigated.
More than 1,000 Florida homeowners have seen an average debt reduction of $114,015 on their primary mortgage since the February approval of the settlement between leading lenders and state attorneys general.
The hefty discount meant to save struggling borrowers from foreclosure was mentioned by U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan in remarks Monday previewing his appearance today at Florida Housing Coalition’s annual conference in Orlando.
Nearly 500 Florida homeowners have seen an average of $65,896 in second mortgage debt disappear as a result of the $25 billion National Mortgage Settlement, according to a progress report released last week.
Donovan said about one in six of homeowners nationwide who have benefitted from the settlement live in Florida.
“We require the lenders when they are doing principal reductions to create a payment and a situation for homeowners that will ensure they will be able to stay in their homes,” said Donovan, who praised Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi for her work on the settlement.
Between March 1 and June 30, a total of $1.7 billion in loan help was distributed in Florida through mortgage principal reductions, refinances, short sale approvals and activities such as providing moving assistance for people who can’t stay in their homes.
Nationally, $10.5 billion in mortgage relief, including $1.3 billion in debt reduction, was meted out by banks, according to the report issued by the Office of Mortgage Settlement Oversight and independent monitor Joseph Smith.
The banks included in the settlement are JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America and Ally Financial, formerly GMAC. Loans held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not included.
Until recently, principal reductions on home loans were almost unheard of. But in May, Bank of America said it was offering about 200,000 underwater homeowners nationwide mortgage reductions that for the first 5,000 people approved had averaged $145,000 per borrower.
According to the progress report, about $115 million in primary mortgage debt in Florida was eliminated since March. JPMorgan Chase offered the most in principal reductions on primary loans at $76 million.
Donovan said he was generally pleased with the report.
“The key is whether they continue to deliver on those results and we will be watching them like hawks to ensure they live up to their promises,” he said. “Certainly, banks expect homeowners to live up to their obligations each month and we should expect the same from the banks.”
Lenders have until Feb. 28, 2015 to meet the settlement requirements.
2 Comment(s)
Posted by Samster at 4:53 p.m. Sep. 10, 2012 Report Abuse
Wow, I respect the plan to give struggling home owners a way to stay in their properties, but it really seems unfair to the rest of us who scrimp and budget to pay our mortgages (regardless of what our homes are worth). I’d sure love to receive a mortgage principal reduction. Instead, I’m paying $5000 to refinance my home.
Posted by jaccam at 5:15 p.m. Sep. 10, 2012 Report Abuse
i agree with it being unfair to those that are paying oon thiers with good faith and struggling. there is a woman in our subdivision that hasn’t paid one mortgage payment in 4 years and foreclosed in Feb. of this year ans still living in her home. Guess we who are paying are the dumbies in this nation.
“More than 1,000 Florida homeowners have seen an average debt reduction of $114,015 on their primary mortgage since the February approval of the settlement between leading lenders and state attorneys general.”
Technically we are talking about $114,015 in unearned, tax-free income, right?
Kunstler on Obama (a lot of the same stuff we’ve covered here):
In office, then, Mr. Obama quickly proved to be a different breed of porpoise than the voters bargained for. He let the Wall Street privateers run amuck another four years, aided with colossal infusions of conjured-out-of-nothing “money” from the Federal Reserve. He let loose the demons of a high-tech totalitarian “security” state with every sort of electronic surveillance, citizen data-mining, and drone spying that innovation allowed. He stood silent like a Banana Republic store mannequin after the supreme court decided that corporations could buy elections (he could have pushed loudly for legislation or even a constitutional amendment to redefine corporate “personhood”). And of course, he continued to prosecute the absurd war in Afghanistan where, after nine years, US forces are unable to accomplish the only aims of being there: to control the terrain and to moderate the behavior of the people who live there.
Name:Ben Jones Location:Northern Arizona, United States To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Not sure if people saw it, but Barron’s cover this weekend was on housing. Prices heading up, calling this rebound for real, etc….
Still no commentary about what happens if judicial states begin to foreclose faster.
Pimp,
Barrons called the housing price bottom in 2008 too.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121581623724947273.html#articleTabs_article%3D1
Nice try. Now why the pimping?
Fascinating, PW. Good call. I remember posting in 2007 that we would not see a recovery in values until 2015. Many people said I was crazy….turns out I was just an optomist! It may take until 2017.
I think you’re optimistic with 2017.
Being crazy is assumed as you continue your stay at Ben’s Nut Farm.
Jingle, with due respect, I think you’re crazy to think we’ll be back to peak by 2017. I’m certainly not in the “prices will fall forever” camp, but peak values need substantially higher incomes to support them, and they won’t happen overnight. If we do have a big upward trajectory in home prices, expect interest rates to also rise, which will make it even harder for buyers.
5 years from today? I’d be surprised if it happened sooner than 20 years from today.
You’re right RW. I really meant returning to a normal market.
Houses in California sold for $250 to 300/SF in 2005 & 2006. You can buy the same house today for $90-140/SF. So 3% growth in prices for 5 years will result in $105 to $165/SF.
That is still a long way from 2006 pricing.
JingleBalls,
Houses depreciate.
Now why are you lying about it?
“Jingle, with due respect, I think you’re crazy to think we’ll be back to peak by 2017.”
Investor optimism at its worst…
Personally, I’m betting on a bottom around 2017…
“Personally, I’m betting on a bottom around 2017…”
Seems reasonable, though perhaps on the optimistic end of the scale, given the delaying effect of extend-and-pretend.
Note that Japan also used extend-and-pretend policy, including permission for banks to hide accounting losses, resulting in two lost decades (so far) of asset price declines (housing and stocks).
I quit reading Barrons a decade ago.
Not sure if people saw it, but Barron’s cover this weekend was on housing. Prices heading up, calling this rebound for real, etc….”
Captain Hindsight from South Park too funny
Darryl…. is that you?
Darrel is AWOL this morning.
I’m here.
That’s why there’s only 132 comments at almost 4 EST?
And now Godaddy’s not helping…
The best time to buy real estate is NOW.
Please note the date of the article. And the author.
The real estate market is the best I have seen in my 33+ years in real estate for buyers, whether they are buying for lifestyle to move in with their families or for buying for investment. There are four main reasons why I say this:
First - The interest rates are still near 40 year historic lows. Rates continue to be well under 7%.
Second - There are more homes for sale than we have had for decades – therefore there is much more to choose from as a buyer.
Third - Prices are stable in the heartland of the USA and in several states, California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona as well as the rust belt of Michigan, Indiana and Ohio the prices have dropped enough that the smart buyers are beginning to jump back in the market to take advantage of the lower prices.
The fourth and final reason that now is the best time to buy is - affordability. According to the National Association of Realtors, the trade organization for Realtors, we are at near a 5 year low in affordability. In addition, Wachovia published a paper on real estate on July 14 of this year comparing the median price of homes in the USA with the disposable income our citizens have, according to the US Department of Commerce. They found that the worst affordability was three years ago and the best was August, 1980. Today they report that we are near that 28 year low. Now is the best time to buy real estate!!!!!
One other factor to consider is that according to the National Association of Realtors the average median increase in home values in our country since 1972 is 6.2%. What a great annual return on your investment.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25837067/The_Best_Time_To_Buy_Real_Estate_Is_Now
Jim Gillespie, Pres and CEO of Coldwell Banker, July 2008. Wow! That is a find.
I bought 3 houses that year and 2 are worth less than I paid for them…….although they all cash flow nicely and have had almost no vacancy in the last 4 years.
According to the National Association of Realtors
I stopped reading right there..
Stpn!
Are you back home for good?
A bit after 3 a.m. in Tucson, and I guess the incoming weather must have awakened me. Right now, it’s raining to beat the band.
We need the rain here. Oh, do we ever.
Go, rain, go!
The 6:30 a.m. update: Second storm! Even biggah and badduh than the first!
Go, rain, go!
If you can, send some rain up our way, please.
Most people have integrity……just sayin’ it gor fun and to get the first post!
….for fun….augh: droid typing!
Sadly you’re not part of that group.
I had a dream over the weekend that my 5 week old baby girl looked up at me and said “pimpin ain’t easy.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGRoEfRJSGs
Pimpin ain’t easy… that’s the truth.
He’s not going to answer. It’s a school day.
“….not part of that group.”
Yes, I guess my post came too late……<;-o}…..
Black or White
CATASTROPHE OR CRIME?
Mary Jo White, a former U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, adheres mostly to the view that the financial crisis was a catastrophe, but not a crime. Now a prominent defense attorney at the law firm Debevoise & Plimpton, White said she thinks calls from some quarters for more criminal prosecutions are unwarranted
William Black, a law professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City and a prominent former bank regulator, is in the camp that thinks prosecutors have missed a massive opportunity.
“They don’t get the whole concept of looting,” he said.
Black, who worked with prosecutors to develop some of the 1,100 criminal cases that emerged from the Savings & Loan crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s, said that Wall Street accounting fraud flows from a simple recipe: grow by buying high-interest loans, leverage the business by borrowing lots of money and keep next to nothing in reserve against losses.
“You are mathematically guaranteed to report record profits,” he said.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/08/criminal-charges-wall-street_n_1857926.html
But it’s legal, right?
Dennis Koslowski (sp?) went to prison for looting Tyco. What’s different now?
He was not part of the sacrosanct financial sector. That’s pretty much it. Those who advise the government and run the central bank are of the financial sector. Heck, Hank Paulson, treasury secretary who designed the bailouts, was a former CEO of Goldman Sachs.
The net result is that the financial sector gets a free “ticket to loot” while the government follows, cleaning up the messes with money taken from the taxpayer.
How can it be legal to misrate securities and breach duty to prevent fraud in lending on that massive a scale as it occurred .
It was a lending crime spree on all levels ,just so the gamblers could leverage more money and make more money in the casino markets . It was a scheme that used real estate as the underlying asset that was playing off the long term record of mortgage defaults being low ,in spite of them changing the leverage and line between investment banks and commercial banks . If commerical banks can invest in unregulated markets ,while all the while the notes are rated AAA investment grade ,than it was just a scheme to create money ( or leverage )
for leverage betting without proper reserves .
Deregulation?
“The elite financial frauds are treating the United States of America‘s criminal justice system and financial markets with utter contempt. They believe they can become wealthy – with impunity – through frauds that cost U.S. households $11 trillion dollars and cost seven million Americans their jobs. Not a single elite fraudster who was instrumental in making the millions of fraudulent loans that drove the crisis has even been indicted – over seven years after the FBI‘s September 2004 warnings that there was an ?epidemic? of mortgage fraud that would cause a financial ?crisis? if it were not stopped.”
– William K. Black testimony before Congress
http://www.judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/12-3-7BlackTestimony.pdf
Believe? They KNOW they can.
They essentially “bum rushed” the system. Some got caught. Some get away.
Late in the afternoon, in a thread about wall street (finally) downsizing,
“Comment by Darrell in Phoenix
all crashing. Except linkin. I don’t get that one.”
The LNKD story is only two people regularly visit LNKD…
1) Unemployed people hoping against reality to network with other unemployed people to get a job. Ignore the politically “adjusted” unemployment rate, and pay attention to the “labor force participation rate”. Tens of millions of Americans are unemployed (although statistically manipulated to not be counted as “unemployed”) so that’s tens of millions of visitors. You’d think they can’t make money advertising to the unemployed, but money can be made off them, until they stop living in housing and stop eating and stop wearing clothes, etc. When they stop living in housing and eating, it doesn’t matter anymore because thats when the riots start. Therefore until the revolution, LNKD is a great place to advertise. Why there’s more unemployed people every month, and that trend it not reversing anytime soon, just look at the labor force participation graphs…
2) Companies rich enough to hire recruiters to hire people. Well, that money optimistically for someones salary is blood in the water for the advertisers. Here’s a self selected population of mid to high level spending authorized corporate people trying to find a way to spend money… advertisers start to drool.
As for the others circling the bowl as the web 2.0 bubble gets flushed:
Groupon, could never find a better stereotype of try once never return. Also they offer nothing but services that are dramatically overpriced and useless to most people. Lets see… massage. Well I don’t want one and I feel it would be awkward even for free, but I feel a fair price for me to ask would be as much as $10/hr to give someone one, at least if there’s no happy ending involved… Oh they regularly charge $100/hr (at that price I’m thinking happy ending must be involved? See that’s the awkward part I’m talking about, should I be expecting that based on the price signals they’re sending or not?) but have a groupon amazing deal for an astounding fantastic 50% off. Hmm still $50/hr LOL this just isn’t happening. I signed up for GRPN when it was new, laughed at the first 20 or so offers, bye bye. I haven’t seen a groupon offer that isn’t of the “overcharge 10x for a service, then cut the price in half” variety. Car detailing, pet grooming ($75 to wash a dog, what the…), massage, aromatherapy, yoga and other trendy exercising classes, etc.
Facebook, you can’t monetize pre-teen schoolyard drama (thats what it is, even if the participants are mostly middle aged women), the visitors are mentally too wound up with who’s dating who and who said what about who and look at the cute pictures. Too wound up about drama means can’t get wound up about the BMW banner ad so why bother buying one, eh who cares about some car if X heard that Y said that Z saw that A dumped B and C might be pregnant. Its the same scenario where XXX videos aren’t shown on free TV, (aside from the crazy fundies whining) although viewership would be extremely high, the advertisers aren’t interested. The most popular bar in town can go out of business if the crowd doesn’t buy any drinks and there’s no cover charge.
Unemployed people hoping against reality to network with other unemployed people to get a job.
My impression of linked-in is that it has always been useless for “networking” while job hunting. Even when the others are unemployed, what you always seem to get as feedback is “we aren’t hiring, in fact, we’re going to have a layoff soon.”
Groupon, could never find a better stereotype of try once never return.
Yup.
facebook and groupon were classic ponzi schemes designed to enrich wall street and insiders and steal from investors.
HTF can morgan stanley value FB at one price and here we are a few months later and the business according to the stock price is worth 50% and nothing has happened?
Did they teach the scammers how to value a company at some point along the way?
This market has turned into nothing more than a way for them to get your money.
I’m just waiting for the big flush to occur again so they can buy your investments for 50% off again.
It’s their game, their rules.
Don’t play; win by default.
I don’t agree that that those websites were “designed” to be a ponzi scheme. They were probably started as sincere companies trying to provide a product. Now, the whole IP process, yeah, that was Wall Street using Groupon and LK as frenzy fodder.
By the way, $10 for a massage is far too little. By the time the spa pays the rent and electric bill, the masseuse would probably draw less than minimum wage, and that’s before being vilified for not paying income taxes. And you wonder why so many people choose to stay on unemployment.
I’ve seen “15 minute” massages advertised at $10. I suppose that these are loss leaders to attract new customers. But when everyone is tightening their belt, especially after buying a long overdue new (or near new) car to replace the clunker with 150K miles on it, finding new customers for services like massages will prove to difficult at best.
IP process?
I think Oxide meant IPO
“IP process?”
I think he meant IPO and just typo’ed when leaving off the O.
She did.
“HTF can morgan stanley value FB at one price and here we are a few months later and the business according to the stock price is worth 50% and nothing has happened?”
Because the average individual stock buyer is a desperate moron.
They could have had the CEO change his name to Mark Ponziberg, and the thousands and thousands of individual suckers would have still bought up the stock. The P/E was 80. EIGHTY! That just screams “overpriced”. And yet thousands and thousands of lunatics bought it.
It’s not actually illegal to be a lunatic with money to burn. So they burned it. I have no sympathy. The scam was totally obvious.
My impression of linked-in is that it has always been useless for “networking” while job hunting
My take on LinkedIn: It’s overrun with self-promoters. Not very good for networking of any kind. Too much horn tootin’ going on.
OTOH, there’s some very good networking going on right here. I’ve done business with HBB-ers, and I’ve met some of you offline. To a man and woman, very delightful people.
TIN horn tooting.
My take on LinkedIn: It’s overrun with self-promoters. Not very good for networking of any kind. Too much horn tootin’ going on.
I don’t think it’s possible to avoid that. Anywhere that contains any real chance of making any money will quickly be filled with self-promoters. It’s human nature. You don’t have to stay connected to them, though.
I get multiple messages every week from recruiters and hiring managers who saw my profile on LinkedIn and want to know if I’m interested in a position.
I see it as a Monster.com that focuses on the candidate instead of the job…
Exactly. I find it way more useful than Monster.
Except that 90% of the jobs he send my way are in the Bay Area.
It’s anecdotal, but many of the developers I’ve worked with in the past 5 years in Boston have relocated to San Francisco/Silicon Valley for jobs. I think it’s one reason why tech is still booming in Boston… we’re losing alot of the talent to CA, so the few that remain are in high demand.
Excellent summary, vince.
I have bought several things from the FB banners. All were related to things I “liked” and I was glad FB told me about them. For example, I am going to see Peter Gabriel in LA in October, but would never have known about it save for the banner ad.
LNKD story is only two people regularly visit LNKD…
Not sure I can agree with this, vince, based on my personal experience.
I believe I got my current job largely due to LNKD; I was gainfully employed (same place for almost 15yrs), and not particularly looking, but answered a LinkedIn connection request because someone I worked with had left the company and I wanted to keep in touch with him.
It was only a day or two after I created my account that I got contacted by a recruiter, and things progressed from there.
Of course, I know this is a sample-size of one. YMMV, etc.
But if you are in an employment market where competitors are very intent on poaching employees from each other, LNKD can be useful, perhaps more so for the employed than the unemployed…
perhaps more so for the employed than the unemployed…
Exactly. Monster.com does a fine job for those who may be looking actively looking for a job, whether employed or not. LinkedIn is the site recruiters and hiring managers go when they want to poach. Employers prefer those who are currently working vs those who are unemployed, so I see LinkedIn as part of the initial recruiting strategy. If a company can’t grow because it is having trouble hiring, then they start to widen the net and focus more on those who may have a tenuous attachment to the labor force.
I do like LinkedIn as a way to find people I used to work with after I haven’t seen them for a long time. I do like that recruiters for applicable local jobs are able to find me there. I don’t know whether those factors will equal success for them, but my overall impression is positive.
I finally installed Office 2002 (I still had all the disks, etc) on my Windows 7 machine. Outlook seems fine. Word opens but won’t read old files that have been transferred. Open Office seems to be having trouble as well.
Am I going to be able to move the .pst file for Outlook? Is there anything I can do to make the Word docs readable? I’m worried that there are some issues with the 64 bit vs. 32 bit machine stuff.
Word opens but won’t read old files that have been transferred. Open Office seems to be having trouble as well.
Sounds like a file permissions issue. I’ve never had a problem opening an old doc file with newer versions of Word.
Nope. Not it. But the others seem to work. Maybe that one file is corrupted. I had picked an unimportant one to try and didn’t want to open something I needed in case the program was actually doing something to the data. I do have back ups, of course, but still didn’t want to mess with it too much.
Can you export it as a pdf file to your email and then download a convert to word?
Am I going to be able to move the .pst file for Outlook?
The *.pst files are a thing of the past in newer versions of Outlook. Being unable to open previous files are likely an ownership/permission issue.
The *.pst files are a thing of the past in newer versions of Outlook.
Huh? I’ve used them with even the newest version…
Huh? I’ve used them with even the newest version…
Newer versions of Outlook use the unicode format, which is more reliable on the NTFS partition, and it allows for larger storage size particularly where attachments are involved. The Exchange/Outlook database is way more robust, and Gmail is an even better solution ditching Outlook’s (local messaging storage) completely.
I’m not using a newer version of Outlook. I installed the old Office suite I already had. I had the key to complete the install and I figured it was worth a try before trying to figure out how to convert everything to Thunderbird on the old machine and then import it. Outlook worked fine, but the old e-mails are still on the old machine. I’d like to retrieve the ones I kept if I can.
I think the problem with the Word file was the file name being too long. It has to be under 200 and some odd characters for the entire file structure. Well, Windows hides the file structure from you so I might have hit just over the limit without realizing it. Other files with shorter names opened just fine.
I really needed a kick in the pants to finish exporting everything from the old machine anyway. I was using the old one just as an e-mail server. Something happened over the weekend which seems to have taken out my router (just used to split the connection among three machines (old one, new one, office one when I have it at home) and the port in the old machine. Maybe a power surge somewhere? Anyway, the old machine is perilously close to 10 years old. The fact that it works at all is a minor miracle, but it is time to retire it. I’ll take out the hard drive and bring it to Goodwill along with the CRT monitor. They will take computers in any state of disrepair, or so their website says. Maybe they have a program to train people in computer repair?
Oddly enough, the printer I got at the same time is just fine.
Is it safe to assume these worst-case Eurozone scenarios aren’t going to happen?
Euro zone may collapse if states reject reforms: German trade association
Gernot Heller Reuters
7:01 a.m. CDT, September 10, 2012
BERLIN (Reuters) - The euro zone could break up if people living in crisis-stricken southern European countries do not accept structural reforms in the coming years, the head of Germany’s BGA trade association said on Monday.
Anton Boerner also dismissed concerns that Germany, Europe’s largest economy, could sink into recession in 2012 and said he expected German exports to increase both this year and next.
“If people do not say yes (to structural reforms), then the euro will not be able to exist in its current form,” Boerner told Reuters in an interview.
“If the southern European states say yes, we accept the challenges … then the euro will be stronger than ever before,” he added.
…
“If people do not say yes (to structural reforms), then the euro will not be able to exist in its current form,” Boerner told Reuters in an interview.
“If the southern European states say yes, we accept the challenges … then the euro will be stronger than ever before,” he added.
In other words, if the southern folks will voluntarily put on the chains then everything should work out?
Goldman says now is the time to buy Eurozone stocks.
Global shares slip as euro zone faces week of decisions
By Marc Jones
LONDON | Mon Sep 10, 2012 8:51am EDT
(Reuters) - Global stocks and the euro dipped on Monday as investors cashed in some of last week’s sharp gains ahead of a German ruling on the euro zone’s new bailout fund, Dutch elections and potential new stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The European Central Bank’s statement last week that it was prepared to buy an unlimited amount of strained euro zone government bonds pushed European shares to a 13-month high and the euro to a four-month peak on hopes it could mark a turning point in the bloc’s 2-1/2 year crisis.
Investors started the week by taking some of that profit off the table. The MSCI index of top global shares was down 0.1 ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, with the euro and stock markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt all slightly lower.
U.S. stock index futures also pointed to a lower open on Wall Street, with futures for the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 all down just over 0.2 percent.
Europe faces another testing week, with Dutch voters going to the polls and Germany’s constitutional court set to rule on new powers for the European Stability Mechanism, the euro zone’s new bailout fund, both on Wednesday.
Since ECB President Mario Draghi first mooted the ECB’s new crisis plan on July 26, world stocks have rallied more than 8 percent, euro zone blue chips have jumped almost 20 percent and the euro has risen more than 4 percent. Analysts are wondering whether the gains can continue.
“The Draghi effect obviously helped the markets hugely, so people are likely to be a bit more hesitant this week,” said Hans Peterson, global head of investment strategy at SEB private banking.
“Risk appetite is likely to be on the way up, but we have to clear some hurdles, and the things in Europe have to go according to plan. The key issue this week is the approval of the ESM by the German constitutional court.”
Strategists at Goldman Sachs also issued an upbeat note on equities, saying that while there were worries over China’s wobbling growth, the brighter European news and signs of gradual improvement in the U.S. were both positives.
“There is still room for market rallying,” they said, citing their target for the Eurostoxx 50 to hit 2,700 points in the next 12 months. “From current levels, however, we expect further gains through to year-end, but at a slower pace,” they added.
…
Goldman Sachs knows full well that retail investors (OPM) tend to buy and hold on phantom phundamentals, while GS transacts in microseconds.
I’m guessing that GS has already bought Eurozone stocks at bottom prices. Now they are asking OPM to buy and pump up the price for them. Then GS can sell at the high price, and when Europe inevitably crashes, it’s the OPM that will get the shaft.
Then, of course, GS can mop up again on the other end by re-buying the crashed stocks and/or cashing out the short sales.
OPM is stuck. They can’t not participate in the stock market; few other places give a decent return. There are no pensions anymore. Social Security is not enough to live on, and that’s assuming it’s not dismantled. They can’t work towards a paid-off house, HBB won’t let them. They can’t work at Wal-Mart; their bodies can’t handle it, and anyway Wally would rather hire a young healthy single desperate pay off college loans. What is OPM supposed to do besides go “Home” to be made into soylent green?
“I’m guessing that GS has already bought Eurozone stocks at bottom prices. Now they are asking OPM to buy and pump up the price for them. Then GS can sell at the high price, and when Europe inevitably crashes, it’s the OPM that will get the shaft.
Then, of course, GS can mop up again on the other end by re-buying the crashed stocks and/or cashing out the short sales.”
My guess agrees with yours. Megabank, Inc cashes in on ginormous volatility waves, which generate opportunities to offload shitty assets on greater fool buyers as a wave approaches a crest, and shorting opportunities to be exercised upon wave collapse.
The bigger the volatility waves, the better the fleecing.
The regular retail investor has no chance against the likes of Goldman Sachs. Above, I said that OPM buys and holds on fundamentals, but even more accurately, OPM simply doesn’t have the time to play market games. OPM is doing other jobs like teaching, or delivering packages, or doing construction or IT or some other career. GS spends all day essentially day-trading on the fact that OPM (maybe) rebalances every year or so.
It’s funny. The guy who inspected my foundation proudly showed me the pictures of the computers he used for his day-trading operation. I thought, Whatever, dude. Shiny monitors or no; you’re the guy on his knees in my crawlspace.
Shiny monitors or no; you’re the guy on his knees in my crawlspace.
That’s a classic.
“Shiny monitors or no; you’re the guy on his knees in my crawlspace.”
This credit bubble and bust has inspired an untold number of shoeshine bubble moments. One of my favs was when I was closing on a new car loan in early 2005, shortly after we moved to San Diego, only to find myself advising the loan officer on what to do about her condo investments.
“Social Security is not enough to live on…”
It depends on how high maintenance one is. My basic budget is less than social security.
Of course, I live under a bridge.
“Of course, I live under a bridge.”
But you can’t paint the walls any color you want.
But you can’t paint the walls any color you want.
Since it’s under the bridge of his own boat, I’m pretty sure he can paint it any color he wants…
Not sure why one would want to paint the nice woodwork on the interior of a boat, though.
And here I thought you might be a troll… not the the kind of troll that hangs around on blogs inciting arguments and spreading dis-information, rather those mythical monsters who live under bridges and extort travelers who seek passage over the bridge.
He is.
“Social Security is not enough to live on…”
Last weekend I went to CA to a family gathering. Spent some time with my sister who now works for an assisted living placement service.
Let’s say you fall and break a hip, or have a stoke with some minor impairment of motor function, or… the dreaded Alzheimers….
Well, she meets you, figures out your income stream, and assuming you have AT LEAST $3200 a month, helps you find an assisted living facility. Even with Medical, that $3200 a month is absolute bare minimum for assisted living. If you don’t qualify for Medical (Medicaid) it is about double that.
The average person she deals with gets about half that from Social Security.
The Medical (Medicare) requirements are pretty rough. One house, one car and no more than $5000 in other assets, and that includes 401(k) accessible funds.
Basically, you need a pension, something like $1 million to set up an annuity that will pay better than $1600 a month… or …. and this is going to make me sound housing pimp-y, The ability to rent out that one house you are allowed to own, for enough income to make up the difference between SS and the out of pocket expense.
For a lot of the people she deals with, they have pensions, but the nursing homes and assisted living centers are already seeing a drop in the % of people with pensions.
If you don’t have a pension, or annuity, or a house you can rent out, and your family wants to help out, then a lot of places want an escrow account set up with enough money to cover a full year’s of the difference between SS and the cost of the assisted living facility’s fees…. say $25K-ish. The escrow is to make sure they get paid for the time while they are kicking you out, which can take up to a year.
So, you may have low expenses right now…. just do not break a hip or have a stroke or any other medical condition that will require assisted living.
just do not break a hip or have a stroke or any other medical condition that will require assisted living ??
Oh, don’t worry, Mitt & Paul Ryan are going to give you a insurance voucher for $6,000. to take care of trivial stuff like that…
MediCal and Medicare are not the same thing.
…anyway, here the asset limit is 2000 and if you qualify for Medicaid, you get some sort of Medicaid waiver that actually makes *some* of the assisted living places affordable. Fortunately the one person I have been helping with this has very little except a small government pension.
And, I can’t believe California lets you keep and rent out a house if you are in assisted living with MediCal assistance. I thought you could keep it only if a spouse (or maybe some other dependent) continued to live in it.
“Oh, don’t worry, Mitt & Paul Ryan are going to give you a insurance voucher for $6,000. to take care of trivial stuff like that…”
Medicare doesn’t cover long-term care, only Medicaid does, and that means being destitute first.
Medical is MEDICAID. Not Medicare.
And I bet you can’t have that house to qualify either. Not unless the other spouse is still living in it. Even if you do, there will be a lien on the house to be paid off after both spouses die.
Medicare does not pay for long term placement in a nursing home. Never has. Medicare will max out at about 100 days of recovery from an injury or disease or something. After that, it is maintenance, not medical care and is not covered by a program that is only health insurance.
Point that out, and the rubes just think you’re being “technical.” LOL!
SS is enough to live on, it’s just not enough to die a slow death on.
Excellent, Blue.
Good news, followed by bad news, followed by good news …
Suck ‘em in, shake ‘em out, suck ‘em in, shake ‘em out …
Suck ‘em in, shake ‘em out, suck ‘em in, shake ‘em out ??
Yep….Don’t own any stock…Never have but if I did I would buy only one or two….Maybe Coke, Caterpillar or Berkshire…I would buy it and forget about it…
‘Suck ‘em in, shake ‘em out, suck ‘em in, shake ‘em out …’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4p15BqvRhc
Goldman says?
RUN! RUN AWAY NOW!
China’s imports shrink in sign slump worsening; president warns growth could slow further
Andy Wong/Associated Press - Workers load goods on a truck near a wholesale market for fashion clothing in Beijing Monday, Sept. 10, 2012. China’s imports shrank unexpectedly in August in a sign its economic slump is worsening and the Chinese president warned growth could slow further, prompting expectations of possible new stimulus spending.
By Associated Press, Published: September 9 | Updated: Monday, September 10, 3:58 AM
BEIJING — China’s imports shrank unexpectedly in August in a sign its economic slump is worsening and the Chinese president warned growth could slow further, prompting expectations of possible new stimulus spending.
Imports declined 2.6 percent from a year earlier, below analysts’ expectations of growth in low single digits, data showed Monday. That came on top of August’s decline in factory output to a three-year low and other signs growth is still decelerating despite repeated stimulus efforts.
The weakness in China’s demand for imports is bad news for exporters in Southeast Asia, Australia, Brazil and elsewhere that are counting on its appetite for oil, iron ore, industrial components and other goods to offset anemic Western markets.
Analysts expect Chinese growth that fell to a three-year low of 7.6 percent in the latest quarter to rebound late this year or in early 2013. But they say it likely will be too weak to drive a global recovery without improvement in the United States, which is struggling with a sluggish recovery, and debt-crippled Europe.
President Hu Jintao cited slack exports and unbalanced domestic growth as challenges for a Chinese recovery.
“Pressure for economic growth to slow is obvious,” Hu said at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Vladivostok, Russia, according to a text released by the Chinese government.
…
Analysts expect Chinese growth that fell to a three-year low of 7.6 percent in the latest quarter to rebound late this year or in early 2013. But they say it likely will be too weak to drive a global recovery without improvement in the United States, which is struggling with a sluggish recovery, and debt-crippled Europe.
And without those luscious export markets growth will probably continue to shrink.
“Officials at all levels of government are under pressure to report good economic results to Beijing as they wait for promotions, demotions and transfers to cascade down from Beijing.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/23/business/global/chinese-data-said-to-be-manipulated-understating-its-slowdown.html?pagewanted=all
In the Nashville area residents are whining about “smaller” homes being built in their neighborhoods. But at least one subdivision appears to be happy it is no longer a ghost town.
http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120910/WILLIAMSON05/309100024/In-Williamson-County-new-homes-smaller-cheaper?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE%7Cp&nclick_check=1
250K and this baby can be yours (not 395)
http://www.cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=S278943
People from the ugly states aren’t you jealous
A buncha my upstate family peeps just came down for a wedding, and I am enduring a fresh round of Florida panic. I have no interest in raising my kids here, and I haven’t a clue as to how to fix that.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/62-West-Ave-Fairport-NY-14450/31009745_zpid/
and I am enduring a fresh round of Florida panic.
Aren’t you glad that you didn’t buy, then, Muggy?
My advice continues to be the same: don’t buy while you have annual or semi-annual waves of strong desire to flee the state. When it has been a couple of years since you have had an episode, and you can finally envision wanting to raise your kids there, and prices are in line with fundamentals—then it may be time to buy.
That is advice I am taking. My wife will finish grad school is Dec. of 2013, which means I am committed to about 18 more months. I will certainly not b buying before then…
NE said “as long as you can live with high taxes, a socialist government and judicial system, and expensive real estate, the majority of which hasn’t been updated in 50 years (and still has the lead paint and asbestos to prove it).”
There are several recurring FL issues for me:
1. It’s not safe for children to ride bikes / explore
2. It is flat
3. There are no seasons
4. 8 hours in any direction from I live still yields 1-3.
But, but … you have Walt Disney World in your backyard!
I love where I live. It may not be for everyone, and I know I pay a premium for living in San Francisco, but if you are lucky you find a place that just “fits”.
I guess the same goes for finding a spouse. If you are lucky, you find somebody who is the right fit. It might not make sense to everyone else, but it works for you and makes you happy.
Ditto for your career.
It has been feeling touch and go for the past few years: knowing that we could not afford to continue renting here and not wanting to leave our jobs (which, by the way, I love my job).
Our funding was approved and we should close by the end of the week. The house is a dream - nicer than any rental I’ve ever had - and monthly PITI putting us back to the rent we were paying in 1999. We are leaving our neighborhood, which we have loved, but it has become way too shi-shi for us.
Welcome to San Francisco. Now go homo.
You cant beat SLO. You just need to bring your job with you.
Perfect weather, great schools, and lots to do outside!
Congratulations, sfrenter. I will be glad to see you change your handle after all this works out for you.
For those of us who need a big city, this bubble has been agony. Fortunately, my rental works very well for me. If I was facing NYC style rent increases with stagnant wages, I might be singing a different tune.
Avocado,
I have considered SLO. Good weather, good surf. It is a little small townish for me, but the deal killer is the proximity to a major airport. I love the fact that I live 15 minutes from SFO.
You cant beat SLO. You just need to bring your job with you.
Perfect weather, great schools, and lots to do outside!
Quoted from Zillow for 93401:
Median House: ~$460,000.00
Median Household Income: ~$31,900
I will be glad to see you change your handle after all this works out for you.
Polly,
I won’t change my name until I have the keys in my hand.
I really did think that maybe I was going to be a renter the rest of my life.
I’m not deriding renters, but I do have a plan to have a paid-off house before I retire. I have more years behind me than ahead.
You’ve already worked into a new name to pimp with.
What? “Nowgohomo”? Oh now hush a minute, Pimple. I’m thrilled for you guys, sf. I know you’ve taken some serious flack for your decision to buy, but after confronting and answering it all this time, at least you know your reasoning was sound! I truly hope your home (not house) becomes everything you’ve wanted it to be for your family.
Yr. friend.
Wait until everyone else wants to leave the state and anyone to whom you mention your interest in buying property looks at you like you are insane.
I have no interest in raising my kids here, and I haven’t a clue as to how to fix that.
Move to Massachusetts. It’s a great place to raise a family…
as long as you can live with high taxes, a socialist government and judicial system, and expensive real estate, the majority of which hasn’t been updated in 50 years (and still has the lead paint and asbestos to prove it).
On second thought, don’t move here. I hear North Carolina is pretty nice…
“On second thought, don’t move here. I hear North Carolina is pretty nice…”
Funny…I left North Carolina for the same reasons you suggest leaving Massachusetts.
Been to Raleigh/Durham lately? It’s D.C.-lite. NC income taxes are 8%.
Better re-think North Carolina.
Looks pretty remote to me, but on the bright side you don’t need a trophy wife out there since there’s nobody to check her out.
Oh my, a little ugly A framish house on the windswept coast. Very depressed area. The Amish from the Finger Lakes are migrating there because land is cheap.
LOL, they don’t show you the ugly windmill filled skyline of Wolfe Island. You can’t give the houses away, yet wishful prices abound.
Not only depressing but cold. And economically depressing I might add.
That place is a perfect example how housing depreciates to little or nothing.
1500sqft? 5k annual taxes?
Ye’ah… no.
I missed yesteday’s discussion about mal-adjustment. But here is one aspect of it. If development stays low, we are going to have housing shortages in this country — even as millions of homes remain empty due to their location or ownership status.
lmao
Sadly, it appears the brainwashing is working.
It isn’t a brainwashing. It’s an observation. Housing is in short supply and prices remain ridiculous in the NY area. There’s too much in Phoenix, Atlanta, Florida, the Inland Empire, Las Vegas.
That’s a misallocation of resources. Some of that excess housing should have been built here. But speculation put housing in places where it couldn’t be sold or rented.
NY may be having a suckling pig boom, but prices are still falling in N Jersey. Your fears will be relieved when Mother’s milk slows down.
“NY may be having a suckling pig boom,”
And we’re not talking Tony Da Caneca’s roast suckling pig.
But speculation put housing in places where it couldn’t be sold or rented.”
Many cities don’t want new houses. they are slow growth. this causes a shortage.
Supply and demand I remember the Phoenix thought was home prices won’t go down as much percentage wise in Phoenix as costal CA because they are much lower priced in Phoenix.
Many cities don’t want new houses. they are slow growth. this causes a shortage.
Boulder, CO is such a place.
I could see us being the last to fall just because there are so many people commuting in each day who would prefer to live in Boulder if it was affordable. I think most of them would have to lose their jobs for Boulder to fall significantly…
so many people commuting in each day
Because nothing says “green” or “progressive” like the parking lot of commuters stuck on US 36 in and out of Boulder every day.
Boulder has a great bike path system, but it’s only for the California equity locusts and trustafarians who can afford to live there.
Because nothing says “green” or “progressive” like the parking lot of commuters stuck on US 36 in and out of Boulder every day.
Hey, if they want to be green they gotta pay up to live here. Saving the planet ain’t cheap, and it ain’t for loosers.
Question for anyone living in Boulder:
I have an older friend (approaching 70) who owns (outright) at least three houses there, only one of which he uses part time during the year. They’re seventies tract homes in need of cosmetic upgrade, not rented out, just sitting there empty. (One belonged to deceased mother, one to ex-wife.)
He’s talking about selling them and buying a place in Aspen (yay) and isn’t particularly enthusiastic about playing landlord again. But given what I expect to be the coming inflation, and Boulder’s relatively well-educated workforce maybe it would be better to fix them up, hire a manager, and rent them out?
Anyone have any thoughts to share?
1. Capital gains tax rates are unlikely to be any lower in the future than they are today;
2. There are a whole bunch of groups backed by institutional capital that are likely to take home rental pools public. One such group was founded by the founder of Public Storage (don’t know if he has plans to take his portfolio public, but he certainly has the know-how).
3. Even in good times, homes are relatively illiquid (can’t get to the money fast if you want it), with a high cost of transactions (6%+).
If it were me, I would sell, pay my tax at 15% (plus state), and as a hedge against inflation buy publicly traded property REITs (and potentially home rental REITs after their IPOs).
The cash yields will likely be lower (with some cash flow being retained by the REIT), liquidity much higher, hassle factor near zero, and IF there is inflation, you are much likely to get some benefit with a broad group of assets than with a small cluster that, despite any broad inflation, will be quite dependent on what is happening in Boulder.
On the other hand, if he never sells, and takes the properties to the grave, he will never need to pay tax anyway, so perhaps the extra hassle for being landlord is worth the extra cash flow…
Free advice is worth what you paid…play at your own risk.
Considering that prices are still high here (and climbing as of this summer) I would advise him to sell now or next spring at the latest without putting much work into them.
If he fixes them up and gets a manager he’ll make some money but it will be a pain. The best rents will be from students, and the place will be trashed every year.
If he doesn’t want to deal with either of those options he should look for people like us who would put up with some of the problems involved in that kind of house in return for below market, low hassle renting.
I’ll let him know, Carl and get back to you if he’s interested. Rental, blessings be upon you.
“…speculation put housing in places where it couldn’t be sold or rented….”
Yep.
Lotta real estate ladies lost their panties in my zip.
Ignoring housing for a moment:
Construction has been at multi-decade lows for pretty much all real estate sectors:
Retail, Industrial, Office, Hospitality, etc.
This will be one source of inflation as occupancy levels rise (which will push rents higher). I’m not holding my breath on office (too many alternatives to expensive office space with technology, etc.), but the vacancy in the others could shrink considerably in the coming few years.
I’m not holding my breath on office (too many alternatives to expensive office space with technology, etc ??
Irvine Company building 1-mil square feet here two blocks away from the 1-bil dollar 49r’s stadium…A few blocks further Page Mil Ventures is building 750,000 square feet in two towers….A few blocks away from that Sabrato is building four building of about 150,000 square feet each….I could continue but I suspect you get the drift…
I understand what is happening in Silicon Valley. We know some people who are taking part in the building boom in Silicon Valley.
I’m talking about broader trends. My wife works at a tech company in the valley. She works from home about 2 days per week. Many of the others in her office work remotely (from other parts of the country in some cases). Despite this, the company she works for in fact has two offices for her (in two different buildings), and also has offices for the workers who are mostly remote.
My point in all this is that companies that are trying to figure out how to cut down RE space to save costs have more ways to do it these days. As rents rise, there will be more of an incentive for businesses to do this.
There still is not a good replacement for a new warehouse or distribution facility.
The overall development trends that I’m talking about are national. Aggregate development across product types is at about 0.7% of existing stock. The approximately 30 year average is about 1.8% of existing stock.
Broken down by product type, all are below their multi-decade average.
But vacancy is twice the historic normal rate. Assuming 700K units construction, and 1 million formation and 200K replacement rate, then it will take 20 years just to get back to historically normal vacancy rates.
I know you are hitching your horse to the idea that the 10 million excess empty houses are in areas people do not, and will not live.
Okay, but that 700K current construction rate will go a long way to keeping up with the few areas that may be a little tight…. especially with net illegal immigration at 0, slowling legal immigration, and household formation still below demographic normed level.
AND, most of those places that are tight are because, and I realize this will make me seem pimp-y, there really is a lack of land in that area. I went to San Fran earlier this year. There really isn’t enough room on the peninsula for the tens of million of people that would want to live there. Sorry, but the majority are going to have to bridge it in. Ditto for Manhatten.
That isn’t to say that there won’t be price drops in those areas, just that there won’t be 1 million housing units being built every year in coastal CA or on Manhattan.
I’m not sure you were talking to me…I was talking about all product types OTHER than housing.
The fall off in construction was in all product types, not just housing. And commercial product types never got much above their long-term averages during the boom, but are now WAY below long term averages.
“we are going to have housing shortages in this country”
Since PW already said he is laughing his a$$ off, I will comment that I am laughing my johnson off
The True History of Simpson-Bowles
The political myth is that Mr. Ryan was the spoiler because he’s an anti-tax purist. His real objection at the time was that the Simpson-Bowles Democrats refused to offer an equal trade on spending. Their non-negotiable demand was that ObamaCare was off the table and there could be no structural reforms in Medicare and Medicaid.
Ultimately three Republicans including Mr. Ryan voted no, and four Democrats voted no, with 11 members in favor.
So in fact Democrats quashed the necessary supermajority even after they first vetoed any serious reform of Medicare. And Mr. Ryan is the “rigid” one?
In any case, even if the deficit commission had reached a consensus, all that would have happened is a fast-track vote in Congress. The bipartisan duo of Jim Cooper and Steve LaTourette later codified Simpson-Bowles, and it bombed on the House floor this April, 382 to 38.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443864204577623332790836376.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop
According to Simpson and Bowles (CNBC interview a while back), they are continuing to lobby members of congress, and so far, have increased that 38 substantially.
I’m not holding my breath, but it looks like they are making SOME progress.
Norquist might have been diabolically brilliant in getting the Republicans to sign their “no tax increases” pledge.
No politician would ever sign a “No spending increases” pledge. That would have gotten Norquist laughed out of the room. But a no tax pledge doesn’t say anything about spending. The politicians can continue to vote for every debt-funded spending increase they see. Which they do.
The net result of all this is Norquist might have engineered a collapse of the system. This machine, just like Greece, will not stop spending until it absolutely, totally, has to. Because it simply can’t find more currency. However, Greece can’t print currency. But the US can.
Right now there’s no consequence to continuing the current profligacy, and there are actually benefits, even though storm clouds are on the horizon.
“Oh, it’ll be fine.” *dismissive wave*
But not preparing for it not be “fine” is a dereliction of duty.
BTW, California created it’s own kind of tax pledge…without supermajority in the state houses, no new taxes. If Sacramento wants new taxes, they need to go directly to the people…Brown is going to try it this November, but we’ll see if people will go along. Apparently public support for the proposition is waning (which is a bit surprising since it disproportionately targets the high earners).
Average Chicago Teacher makes $75,000/year for 9 months of work
Almost free health care.
Insane pensions
But they are professionals and are doing this for the children.
Did I mention they are some of the largest campaign contributors? Yeah - it all goes to democrats.
——————————-
Chicago teachers strike for first time in 25 years; contingency sites ready, charters remain open
Chicago Sun-Times | September 10, 2012 | ROSALIND ROSSI
Chicago teachers began walking the picket line for the first time in 25 years Monday morning, leaving parents to scramble for alternatives for their children.
…..Vitale said the contract amounted to a 16 percent raise over four years for the average teacher when factoring other increases. And the raises could not be rescinded for lack of funds — which is what happened this past school year, angering teachers and helping to set the stage for Monday’s strike.
“This is not a small commitment we’re making at a time when your fiscal situation is really challenged,” Vitale said. A $1 billion deficit awaits the system at the end of this school year, officials have estimated. And the district drained its reserve funds to plug this year’s budget……
That’s not very Hopey Changey of them, now is it?
“Is our children learning?” - George W. Bush, 2000
You know, everyone misunderestimated him. After all, he did the unpossible!
Sadly, he accomplished the unpossible in just 56 of the 57 states.
Did I mention they are some of the largest campaign contributors? Yeah - it all goes to democrats ??
So do Fire & Police Unions…Would you consider generally that group to be “Democrats” ?? So, they vote in their self interest wether they be democrat or republican…So, whats new with government unions…Its not partisan my friend…In fact, in the Police & Fire case, its Hypocritical…They likely vote Dem in locals & Rep in State & National.
From what I’ve heard, Chicago schools are a near war zone.
Chicago schools are a near war zone ??
Which prompts the question, WHY ??
Private schools are not War zones, WHY ??
So you think it’s because the teacher earn a middle class wage? That it has nothing to do with the demographics of the students who attend said schools?
Public schools in my little burg are relatively peaceful. Of course, it helps that we are a lilly white town with little income disparity.
Here’s a little true story:
Good friend worked for many years at a tough, inner-city school. Middle school math teacher. Her students consistently scored basic and below-basic on standardized tests.
Last year she transferred to a high-performing public middle school (mostly middle class kids) on the other side of town.
Same subject (6th grade math), same teacher, same curriculum, different student demographics.
Test scores were released 2 weeks ago. Lo and behold, her students all scored proficient and advanced.
Wow, in less than 12 months she somehow became a much, much better teacher. Merit pay! Let’s give her a raise!
If I were to go back to school for another degree I would love to do a quantitative study on teachers like her.
To be fair, when they try to measure teacher effectiveness now, they compare the students against their previous years (or early year) tests. It is a huge problem for the teachers in excellent schools. If your class largely scored well above grade level the last year, one or two kids with colds on the test day getting bad grades can get the teacher in serious trouble.
Private schools are not War zones, WHY ??
Because they can pick and chose their students, unlike public schools which are mandated to teach everyone, including non English speaking illegal kids?
Exactly…
My 14 y/o daughter attends a public school in Phoenix Union school district, right downtown in a bad neighborhood.
But, it is a limited enrollment high school with no more than 100 kids per grade. They hand pick the kids with high test scores, no history of trouble, and letters of recommendation for previous teachers.
Of course, every kid is also an honors student, with the honors program right in the basic curriculum.
Been open for 5 years. Not a single fight, weapon, gang issue, drug problem… pretty much the only disciplinary issues is inappropriate use of the laptop that each student is issued.
And parents that will whoop your behind if you get in trouble at school.
I went to Catholic school. Never feared the nuns (they were really nice at least to me), but I dreaded going home with any hint that I was in trouble at school. My parents more than made up for the friendly nuns.
You almost can’t educate a kid with parents that don’t care about or value education. A few will break the mold, but very few. Parents are the deciding factor in today’s education, I don’t care how good the teachers are.
Even good parents can’t be effective if they are working 2 or 3 lucky ducky part time jobs. Being a parent takes time.
“Even good parents can’t be effective if they are working 2 or 3 lucky ducky part time jobs. Being a parent takes time.”
I agree Polly. But it’s still better to have a parent that values education and has to work three jobs over one that works one (or none on welfare) degrades education every chance they get.
76K? Good for them!
I wonder what the amount of compensation per student is? Out here, class sizes have grown considerably over the last few years. My friend (who just left teaching), was making in the mid-$30’s took a 5% pay cut last year even though her hours and students increased, and she had virtually no money left for classroom materials.
It will be interesting to see what happens once the unions are busted, schools are further privatized, and we can get away with paying lazy teachers something closer to what they deserve (like ten bucks an hour, not thirty or forty).
There is huge money to be made in privatizing the school system. It makes perfect sense why the greedy teachers are being targeted.
Geeze, a few years ago teachers were the savior of our future generations and placed on a pedestal. Now that the opportunities of wealth hoarding diminish, they are being demonized. (Maybe that’s why there was such a push to go into teaching, with the anticipation of flooding the market with supply just at the time wages were going to be further suppressed?)
This should bode well for this country’s already stellar primary and secondary school systems.
That is THEFT from the Producers. F*ing parasites!
They should close those schools and fire the teachers and give those dumb kidz a McGuffey Reader so they can do their own libtard book learning, and use the tax savings to give tax cuts to the Job Creators!
I think your $75K figure includes college professors, public and private.
Info I could find says that K-12 public school teachers make closer to $60K.
http://www.indeed.com/salary/q-Teacher-l-Chicago,-IL.html
http://www.ehow.com/info_7889283_average-salary-teacher-chicago.html
That is almost exactly the average for people with bachelor’s degrees nationally.
http://www.simplyhired.com/a/salary/search/q-bachelors+degree
and below the average for people with bachelors degrees in Chicago
http://www.simplyhired.com/a/salary/search/q-bachelors+degree/l-chicago
Still looking for what they pay for active teachers, but for retired teachers it looks like the retired person has to pay a huge chunk of the cost. Looks like the plan pays about $500-700 of the monthly cost. For an individual, that is 2/3s-ish of the price, but if you are covering your spouse it is under half. For family… Plan is $3K and the member has to pay $2300 of that?
http://www.ctpf.org/Insurance/2010_Open_Enrollment_Handbook.pdf
You and your stupid facts …
Please stick to the narrative.
stick to the narrative
Yeah, no sh*t! And fire all those $50/hour union janitors who retire after 10 years on $200K pensions and let those grubby kidz clean their own schools like Newt says! LOL
Excerpt from CBS Chicago:
“By comparison, teachers in New York City earn an average of $73,751. That would be less than the average $76,000 average salary for Chicago teachers cited by CPS, but more than the $71,000 average cited by the union. Depending on which is accurate, Chicago would either be first or second in the nation in average teacher salary. However, Los Angeles teachers make $67,600. The number drops to about $54,000 in Dallas, and just over $52,000 in Miami. “
And this is one more reason why we send our kids to private school. Not beholden to the corrupt Teacher’s Union… priceless.
“More than 80 percent of district students qualify for free and reduced-price lunches.”
Hmm, is that because of teachers or one percenters?
I guess there is NO HOPE for ohbewanna to fire the teachers….
Remember almost everyone in Jail is a product of the public school system…
Remember almost everyone in Jail is a product of the public school system…
Yeah, the plebes don’t need no stinkin’ educashun. Let’s not bother, they can just work in the factories.
Oh wait, there are no more factory jobs here.
We should tear up the public streets and roads. Remember! Almost everyone in jail used the public streets and roads.
IAT
We should get rid of all hospitals. Remember! Almost everyone in jail was born in a hospital.
IAT
LOL, IAT…
Ruh-roh…dollar is rallying today.
What could be the possible implications for U.S. stock prices?
Not to worry, as the stage is now set for QE3.
Euro bulls take a breather
Dollar recovers lost ground after falling to its lowest level in three months against the euro last week.
At what point does pushing on a string lose all heft?
ABREAST OF THE MARKET
Updated September 9, 2012, 7:47 p.m. ET
Investors Corner Fed
Expectations for Action Drive Rally, but Upside Is Unclear
By MATT PHILLIPS
For some investors, bad news is good news.
The U.S. economy added 96,000 jobs last month, the government said on Friday. That is fewer than Wall Street analysts were expecting and the latest sign of a sluggish recovery, some economists said.
Yet the prices of everything from stocks and gold to Treasury and mortgage debt rose. The rallies reflect near certainty among investors that the Fed will announce additional monetary easing as soon as Thursday, when a scheduled two-day policy meeting ends.
The reaction shows how markets have come to depend on central bank stimulus since the financial crisis, and underscores the high stakes for the Fed and its chairman, Ben Bernanke.
Some analysts and investors say the Fed must announce a big stimulus plan quickly or risk disappointing the market, potentially setting the stage for a broad selloff. The European Central Bank last week spurred a sharp stock-market rally by announcing a bond-buying program that will make it easier for troubled countries to issue new bonds.
Yet a new round of Fed bond-buying would be controversial. The presidential election looms in November and many observers are asking whether central-bank actions are reaching a point of diminishing returns.
“It’s pretty clear that some of the rally that we’ve seen over the summer has been driven by the expectation that the Fed will announce another round of quantitative easing,” says John Higgins, senior markets economist with Capital Economics, a London-based research firm. “I think the question is whether there will continue to be a positive impact when the Fed announces it.”
…
At what point? Depends on who is left holding the string. Hint: it won’t be the 1%.
Here’s your “Recovery” LOL:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-10/stagnant-incomes-signal-restraint-in-spending-by-u-s-consumers.html
LOOSERS!
See the recent article on zerohedge this morning, highlighting a rant against the Fed. Former Reagan OMB Director David Stockman was on CNBC this morning and said “The Fed (and the lunatics that run it) are telling the whole world untruths about the cost of money and the price of risk.”
Title of the article is Stockman: “Ron Paul Is Right: The Fed, And The Lunatics That Run It, Are The Heart Of The Problem”
It’s always been about the mis-pricing of risk. Ben, if you have a chance to watch the clip, this more than anything should highlight the salient points about our discussion regarding Bond yields as an indicator…
“I think the question is whether there will continue to be a positive impact when the Fed announces it.”
Buy on the rumor sell on the news ?
I’ve been thinking might be time to sell .. hard to time these things
Louis Rukeyser used to refer to them as the “bond ghouls”.
Apparently the U.S. isn’t the only place in the global economic landscape with piles of bad real estate loans.
BUSINESS
September 9, 2012, 11:14 a.m. ET
Loan Rollovers Mount in China
By LINGLING WEI
BEIJING—Greentown China Holdings Ltd. has a problem. The property developer has to repay nearly $3 billion in debt in the next 12 months, but it had only $1.2 billion in cash and bank deposits as of the end of June, according to its latest regulatory filing.
To stay afloat, Greentown, based in the wealthy eastern province of Zhejiang, is counting on its banks rolling over loans.
Suntech is one of several Chinese firms intending to roll over credits.
“There is no problem for us to get the loan extensions,” said Simon Fung, Greentown’s chief financial officer. Mr. Fung pointed to a coup the company pulled off last year: Even as Beijing moved to tame the housing market, which hurt the company’s profits, Greentown managed to get its banks to stretch out the maturities of all its loans that came due, totaling about 20 billion yuan ($3.2 billion).
Greentown isn’t alone in counting on banks’ willingness not to ask for their money back when it is due.
Although Chinese lenders don’t disclose how many loans they extend or modify, the practice is becoming increasingly popular, according to companies and banking executives. The strategy—called “extend and pretend” by critics—is raising alarms among analysts and bank investors. They warn that it could add to banks’ increasing piles of bad loans and may restrict banks’ ability to lend to bolster the slowing economy.
…
Extend and pretend going global.
What was it The Trump said? If you owe the bank $500K the bank owns you. If you owe the bank $500 million, you own the bank.
I assume that if your loans are in the billion, you really, really own the bank.
Listing #12588043
$450,000 (LP)
Price/SqFt: 157.56
Moorpark, CA 93021 Active
Beds: 5 Baths: 3 (0 0 0 0) (FTHQ) Sq Ft: 2856 Lot Sz: 7730sqft
Area: NMP Yr:
Remarks
Short sale subject to lender’s approval. UNFINISHED POOL and UNFINISHED back yard. Please do not go to the backyard due to safety hazard. Engineer structural report available upon acceptance with estimate of $165,000 + $3500 of work needed. Buyer to do their own investigations and inspections. Please email the listing agent to arrange showing. Agents please check private remarks.Monthly association fee is an approximate and will up date the system when know the exact amount, 2 different HOA dues. Property is located in Melo Roos community.
” $165,000 + $3500 of work needed” I don’t even know what this means ? 168,500 of work needed for a pool !!
I remember these homes. back in ‘05 I went to open house and saw a circus of people including a group of young yuppie looking folks eating McDonalds at the open house dinning table and calling ” brokers” to buy as many as possible. The very young realtor had a sheepish look on his face saying most were all sold out on the first day of open house. Now look at them half finished wrecks with melo Roos and 2 HOA’s hahaha
Let the bidding wars begin…Idiots.
I was in Monterey on Friday and went into Whole Foods to buy some rice as they have quite a variety. While there I checked out the meat and got sticker shock. Beef prices have doubled. Checked out other local markets and found beef pricing had also taken a jump.
On the housing front: have two friends who bought a second home recently for quote retirement. One in Cambria, one in Palm Springs. Neither needed a remodel but the first thing both did was to pull the kitchen counters and install stone, second thing was to put in hardwood flooring.
Cambria is a pretty cool little town….Palm springs is okay but only for a few months for me…Cambria you could live year round…
Yeah makes one wonder doesn’t it? The effects of the latest drought caused ranchers to slash their herds and that resulted in a crash in the spot market. Foreign buyers swooped in and bought tons and even our own government snapped up a few hundred tons and then there was a spike in refrigerated storage as everyone scrambled to freeze stuff.
Bottom line - next years meat will be way more expensive.
Extreme weather related events can disrupt markets world wide. Just look at the side effects in the Arctic right now.
http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/09/the-rush-to-exploit-an-increasingly-ice-free-arctic/
Bottom line - next years meat will be way more expensive.
All the more reason to regard meat as an occasional treat, rather than a staple.
Try it. You’ll feel better.
Don’t really comment on this stuff but when it’s food, gonna pontificate till the cows (sic) come home!
Even better, try it like a spice like they do in Italy.
Pasta with meatballs comes out with amazing pasta, and tons of perfectly cooked vegetables and little itty-bitty pieces of teeny-tiny meatballs.
There’s a difference though.
The best vegetables that you can buy, and the very best meat you can buy. Very little of it. It’s the taste that matters.
There`s always Racoon, the other dark meat.
There’s always the possibility that you’re just a boring RE p1mp.
Try and add something to the conversation.
http://www.lpsvcs.com/LPSCorporateInformation/CommunicationCenter/DataReports/MortgageMonitor/201207MortgageMonitor/MortgageMonitorAugust2012.pdf
New mortgage monitor out from LPS today.
Page 5 is telling…showing how much progress non-judicial states have been making in clearing non-current loans, and how little judicial states have been making.
Furthermore, page 8 shows the effect of all that clearing of distress on home prices (as evidenced by lots of underwater borrowers). This is less the case in judicial states.
Again I ask, which judicial state is going to be the first to open the floodgates on their foreclosure processing? That state will experience a significant leg down in home prices.
Yeah, a leg down that is probably as big as us non-judicial states have already taken… 50% or more.
I’m not sure I’d go that far (50% decrease from today)…the situation will be much different when judicial states start to foreclose, more net jobs in those economies, lower rates than when this mess started, more ways to refinance underwater borrowers (thanks to DC for that), capital has formed to buy homes as rentals (which will allow for a faster demand uptick as more distress enters the market), etc.
Additionally, even if these states start to foreclose more quickly, I doubt they will open the floodgates to the same extent as non-judicial states did in 2008-2010 (robosigning scandal and settlement will cause things to happen more slowly–even if the pace was picked up overall).
I’m not saying prices won’t fall, but I’d be very surprised if they fall by 50% from where they are today in judicial states.
“… forced to compete in an incredibly viscous global market place”.
A quip just heard from a flapping head on CNBC. But why? Why are we forced to compete with the rest of the world?
And what does that mean? $2 an hour wages?
Sure, if we want them to buy our exports we have to be better or cheaper… but what if we just wanted to stop buying their exports?
Is there something, anything we can do other than lowering the standard of living to that of the 3rd world?
http://www.azcentral.com/community/phoenix/articles/20120904phoenix-suns-gorilla-new-hire.html
Lucky Ducky jobs for everyone….
“The responsibilities and qualifications are extensive: The ideal candidate needs to have a college degree and two years’ experience in a similar job, the ability to work with children and adults, some computer savvy and a level of fitness that goes well beyond what most people can achieve.
Broken legs, separated shoulders and pulled hamstrings? Threats, insults, even assaults? All part of the job.”
“The list of responsibilities has 12 items, from entertaining at games to developing new routines to maintaining the website, Facebook page and Twitter account. Not to mention the more than 300 personal appearances a year.
The list of qualifications is even longer. It includes the ability to handle extended hours and extreme heat, and to perform on your feet for three hours and run up and down the arena steps numerous times during those three hours. All while entertaining a crowd.”
“the job pays $40,000 a year”
Whither the black swan?
From California with its eminent domain proposals? From Europe with its increasing economic strains? From a modern day Princip? Or from a direction completely unguessed? The last would the most fitting entrance for the swan.
“Or from a direction completely unguessed? The last would the most fitting entrance for the swan.”
+1
Nassim Taleb a little while back noted that he was invested in the Euro. His reason? We know all about the European problems. If there is to be a Black Swan, it is likely to come from a different place.
France’s richest man Bernard Arnault sues over ‘rich idiot’ headline
France’s richest man, Bernard Arnault, said on Monday he would sue a newspaper over a front-page headline – “Get lost, you rich idiot!” - which came after he said he was applying for Belgian nationality.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9534119/Frances-richest-man-Bernard-Arnault-sues-over-rich-idiot-headline.html
At least it makes it easier to answer the question “Name ten famous Belgium’s”.
Eddy Merck!
And I still have nine to go. Darn.
Remi George = Hergé
Simenon?
Maurice Maeterlinck?
Posted: 4:55 p.m. Monday, Sept. 10, 2012
Nearly 700 Florida foreclosures sold in bulk to private investor
By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
A San Diego company bought 699 Florida foreclosures Thursday in a bulk deal with the Federal Housing Finance Agency that included $12.3 million in cash.
The sale to Pacifica Companies is the first in a new program aimed at reducing the so-called shadow inventory of foreclosed homes by offering blocks of properties to private investors. The investors are expected to hold the homes as rentals for an unrevealed period of time before they can be sold.
Florida had three tranches of homes, including 376 in Southeast Florida, which had been repossessed and were owned by federal mortgage backer Fannie Mae.
In addition to the $12.3 million in cash, Fannie Mae will receive 90 percent of the proceeds from the homes until it collects $49.3 million, according to a transaction summary released Monday. After that, Fannie Mae and Pacifica Companies will split the proceeds. Pacifica will also receive 20 percent of all gross rental income as a management fee for overseeing daily operations of the rentals. The estimated transaction value for Fannie Mae is $78.1 million.
“The transaction is designed to promote home price stability, improve quality of housing stock and enhance rental inventory of markets by utilizing a rent-and-hold strategy,” according to the summary.
Nationwide, about 2,490 Fannie Mae-owned homes were being offered in bulk sales to investors. There were no acceptable bids on 541 Atlanta-area homes, according to a Federal Housing Finance Agency announcement Monday. The other properties are in Illinois, Arizona, California and Nevada.
A source familiar with the sales said the Atlanta homes will either be repackaged or sold individually through the government’s traditional foreclosure process or the website http://www.homepath.com.
The program has faced opposition from the National Realtors Association for taking away inventory in high-interest areas where the supply of homes has dried up.
“Florida is one of the hottest markets in the U.S. and there’s absolutely no reason to sell those homes in bulk,” said Dean Hooker, owner of Pompano Beach-based Southeast REO, which specializes in bank-owned homes. “People are knocking down the doors for properties.”
In Palm Beach County, 6,788 single-family homes were on the market in July, 43 percent fewer than last year during the same time and 50 percent fewer than in 2010.
Statewide, there were 100,657 single-family homes for sale last month. That’s about a five-month supply and 41 percent below last year.
But others believe private investors are better equipped to handle the distressed properties.
“They are more capable of managing the properties, getting them in the right condition and putting them on the market for rent or sale,” Boca Raton-based Realtor Tim Kinzler said last month. “It’s about finding a balance.”
Pacifica Companies said it was not prepared to comment Monday. Founded in 1978, Pacifica is a real estate development firm that owns and manages hotels and housing communities in the U.S., Mexico and India.
he sale to Pacifica Companies is the first in a new program aimed at reducing the so-called shadow inventory of foreclosed homes by offering blocks of properties to private investors. The investors are expected to hold the homes as rentals for an unrevealed period of time before they can be sold.
And let me guess: They have no prior property management experience and have no clue of what’s involved. Have fun, guys!
“People are knocking down the doors for properties.”
LOL..
My landlord is probably knocking down his secretary for renting the apartment next to mine to a buncha Columbia grad-students who are proceeding to trash the effin’ eff out of it.
Incidentally, it used to be rented by a very nice well-to-do couple with whom I’m still very close with. Heck, I’m still very close with his grandparents!
LOL.
Rent rises, oh yeah! Gonna end really well.
Updated: 3:52 p.m. Monday, Sept. 10, 2012 | Posted: 3:37 p.m. Monday, Sept. 10, 2012
Police identify driver that hit Jupiter officer on Obama motorcade
By Cynthia Roldan
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Authorities have released the identity of the driver who crashed into a Jupiter Police officer Sunday as he tried controlling traffic for the presidential motorcade on Interstate 95.
Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office investigators say Susan Holloway, 56, of West Palm Beach, was driving on the 45th Street on-ramp to I-95 when she began accelerating to merge into traffic.
Meanwhile, President Obama’s motorcade was travelling south on I-95 on its way to his campaign stop at the convention center in West Palm Beach.
Jupiter Police Officer Bruce Edwin St. Laurent was heading southbound on a motorcycle as part of the motorcade when he pulled in front of Holloway in an attempt to stop traffic, the report said. That’s when Holloway crashed into Laurent’s motorcycle, which threw him off.
Laurent was rushed to St. Mary’s Medical Center, where he was declared dead.
Laurent’s motorcycle was caught underneath Holloway’s truck. Investigators say she tried to avoid the crash by “making a heavy brake application.”
Authorities said no arrests have been made in the case, as it is still being investigated.
Average Florida mortgage reduction tops $114,000
Posted: 4:18 p.m. Monday, Sept. 10, 2012
By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
More than 1,000 Florida homeowners have seen an average debt reduction of $114,015 on their primary mortgage since the February approval of the settlement between leading lenders and state attorneys general.
The hefty discount meant to save struggling borrowers from foreclosure was mentioned by U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan in remarks Monday previewing his appearance today at Florida Housing Coalition’s annual conference in Orlando.
Nearly 500 Florida homeowners have seen an average of $65,896 in second mortgage debt disappear as a result of the $25 billion National Mortgage Settlement, according to a progress report released last week.
Donovan said about one in six of homeowners nationwide who have benefitted from the settlement live in Florida.
“We require the lenders when they are doing principal reductions to create a payment and a situation for homeowners that will ensure they will be able to stay in their homes,” said Donovan, who praised Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi for her work on the settlement.
Between March 1 and June 30, a total of $1.7 billion in loan help was distributed in Florida through mortgage principal reductions, refinances, short sale approvals and activities such as providing moving assistance for people who can’t stay in their homes.
Nationally, $10.5 billion in mortgage relief, including $1.3 billion in debt reduction, was meted out by banks, according to the report issued by the Office of Mortgage Settlement Oversight and independent monitor Joseph Smith.
The banks included in the settlement are JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America and Ally Financial, formerly GMAC. Loans held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not included.
Until recently, principal reductions on home loans were almost unheard of. But in May, Bank of America said it was offering about 200,000 underwater homeowners nationwide mortgage reductions that for the first 5,000 people approved had averaged $145,000 per borrower.
According to the progress report, about $115 million in primary mortgage debt in Florida was eliminated since March. JPMorgan Chase offered the most in principal reductions on primary loans at $76 million.
Donovan said he was generally pleased with the report.
“The key is whether they continue to deliver on those results and we will be watching them like hawks to ensure they live up to their promises,” he said. “Certainly, banks expect homeowners to live up to their obligations each month and we should expect the same from the banks.”
Lenders have until Feb. 28, 2015 to meet the settlement requirements.
2 Comment(s)
Posted by Samster at 4:53 p.m. Sep. 10, 2012 Report Abuse
Wow, I respect the plan to give struggling home owners a way to stay in their properties, but it really seems unfair to the rest of us who scrimp and budget to pay our mortgages (regardless of what our homes are worth). I’d sure love to receive a mortgage principal reduction. Instead, I’m paying $5000 to refinance my home.
Posted by jaccam at 5:15 p.m. Sep. 10, 2012 Report Abuse
i agree with it being unfair to those that are paying oon thiers with good faith and struggling. there is a woman in our subdivision that hasn’t paid one mortgage payment in 4 years and foreclosed in Feb. of this year ans still living in her home. Guess we who are paying are the dumbies in this nation.
“More than 1,000 Florida homeowners have seen an average debt reduction of $114,015 on their primary mortgage since the February approval of the settlement between leading lenders and state attorneys general.”
Technically we are talking about $114,015 in unearned, tax-free income, right?
Pretty nice paycheck if you qualify…
Kunstler on Obama (a lot of the same stuff we’ve covered here):
In office, then, Mr. Obama quickly proved to be a different breed of porpoise than the voters bargained for. He let the Wall Street privateers run amuck another four years, aided with colossal infusions of conjured-out-of-nothing “money” from the Federal Reserve. He let loose the demons of a high-tech totalitarian “security” state with every sort of electronic surveillance, citizen data-mining, and drone spying that innovation allowed. He stood silent like a Banana Republic store mannequin after the supreme court decided that corporations could buy elections (he could have pushed loudly for legislation or even a constitutional amendment to redefine corporate “personhood”). And of course, he continued to prosecute the absurd war in Afghanistan where, after nine years, US forces are unable to accomplish the only aims of being there: to control the terrain and to moderate the behavior of the people who live there.
http://kunstler.com/blog/2012/09/zeitgeist-failure.html