The Housing Bubble

“Either way - neither party should have been bailed out period.”

So, cascade debt default into depression?

So, cascade debt default into depression?

No. More like a transfer of wealth from lender to debtor. A burn out of malinvestement. Removal of executive teams and operators who excelled in the corrupt game.

And ultimately, laying the foundation for an economy not built on “financial innovation” and virtual products, but rather, smart people providing goods and services people want.

Darrell, you are making an axiomatic statement as if there was data to back it up. In fact quite the opposite. If you go to the Federal Reserve’s own web site they’ve done several studies that conclusively state that they have no idea what the impact of these bail-outs are. They can come up with models. But they don’t test the models against real data - in other words it isn’t science based it’s more of a religious belief. Don’t believe me - read the papers yourself and study how the scientific method works - study Bacon and the history of science. What the Fed does is not based on science in neither is Keynes or the bail outs. There is no Nobel prize in economics. Even Nobel knew economics wasn’t science based so he made no prize for it. So economists wanted to be recognized made up their own Nobel price for economics. That pretty much says it all to me! What a joke.

Failure is a healthy part of a market system. Read Minsky for example and look at moral hazard and mal-investment. Only the successful should be aloud to go on and the failures should be taken out to make room for younger companies with better ideas. Propping up companies that fail only wastes resources and labor that could be better used elsewhere and inhibits the development of new better challengers.

You end up bailing out GM at the expense of say Tesla. All these GM Volts hit the market. Who knows maybe Tesla would have taken over those GM plants and GM labor and made a killing exporting some of the best electric Tesla cars ever made! But instead we get the volt - an epic pass.

And study history please. When the U.S. used to let things fail we had a quick wipe out - the smart players were rewarded and the Ponzis were cleared out and then a quick recovery. If we had just let this wipe out I think the recovery would have been swift and newer better financial institutions would have risen. Instead we have zombies on steroids and a failed state and debt slavery. How’s that working out for Japan?

“A burn out of malinvestement.”

Yeah, like I said, greater depression.

In out modern globalized economy, the USA economy is NOTHING but malinvestment. No malinvestment, no USA economy.

Exactly Neuromance!

The rewards all the bad players have earned will ensure that true recovery will take years if not decades if ever, as the banks and borrowers continue to play their self-serving games.

Every once in a while a forest has to burn to allow for new growth. It’s time to let the banks burn.

When the U.S. used to let things fail we had a quick wipe out - the smart players were rewarded and the Ponzis were cleared out and then a quick recovery.

How do you explain the Long Depression? Many who lived through both it and GD1 said the Long Depression was the Big One.

In the United States, economists typically refer to the Long Depression as the Depression of 1873–79, kicked off by the Panic of 1873, and followed by the Panic of 1893, book-ending the entire period of the wider Long Depression.[4] The National Bureau of Economic Research dates the contraction following the panic as lasting from October 1873 to March 1879. At 65 months, it is the longest-lasting contraction identified by the NBER, eclipsing the Great Depression’s 43 months of contraction.[5][6]

In the US, from 1873–1879, 18,000 businesses went bankrupt, including hundreds of banks, and ten states went bankrupt,[7] while unemployment peaked at 14% in 1876,[8] long after the panic ended.
wikipedia

“SF Bay Area”

You seem to think I’m disagreeing with you on a fundamental level. I am not.

Yes, in the 1800s when we let things fail we had slight dips and then quickly recovered… the Long Depression that lasted from 1873 to 1879 is an excellent example of this.

My point is that we’ve gone SO long manipulating the economy, letting the excess grow so large, that any “let it fail” now would cause a greater depression.

If we let forests burn every couple years, then the fires are small and just clean out the debt and down. If we spend 50 years fighting every small fire as if it was WWII, letting mass quantities of debt and down build up, combined with overgrowth of living trees… well, there is no such thing as a minor fire in that situation.

At this point I see a few options.
1) Let it burn. EVERYONE will be scorched. I’m sure some think they are immune, but I’d bet they would be surprised how much it would hurt them.

2) Let it keep growing. Let even more excess debt/money build up to burn up in the fire.

3) Perhaps work to undo the imbalances that we have created. Begin slowly reversing the situation, then slowly clean out the forest, eventually with some controlled burns.

So I ask… Option 1? Greater Depression?

That is what will happen if we “let it crash” while we still have the massive trade imbalances that created the need for the excess debt in the first place.

If we continue to refuse to even discuss how money is created, where it goes, and why we’re so dependent on new debt/money creation, then perhaps “let it burn” will be our only option. I for one, and still holding out hope that reason and sanity can return…. as little hope as I have, it is not all gone yet.

I mean, it could happen… Romney could win, and his attempts to cut government deficits could fall flat on their faces, and we could all wake up from the mass delusion of This Party all good and That Party all evil, and finally ask ourselves the deep questions about the nature of money and trade imbalances….

Some say I’m a dreamer… and sometime I feel like the only one…

Darrel,

Suppose you were right and the point of this wasn’t to massively transfer wealth to an elite banking cabal, but simply to rescue our economy from an unintentional, unforeseeable black swan event that would have permanently crippled our economy. Why were no conditions of safety for future dubious conditions placed on the banks to go along with their massive “bailouts”? Why weren’t those “too big to fail” institutions broken up into smaller more “able to fail without systemic risk” institutions? My mammy used to say, actions speak louder than words. In this case, appointing Tim Giethner, reappointing Ben Bernanke, pushing QE2, making massive loans through the discount window at 0%, offloading trillions of bad mortgage debt to Fannie and Freddie, prosecuting zero bank executives, brokering loss guaranteed buyouts among the giant firms covered by taxpayer $, … the list goes on.. these actions speak volumes louder than any lip service to trying to “help the average American”. Just 1 trillion dollars could result in a $3000 check to every man woman, and child in this country…. If you want to talk about maintaining liquidity, nothing is more liquid than cash in the hand of the people. It’s all bullshit, smoke, and mirrors. The sooner you accept that the banking cartels are pumping you from behind, and their giant “member” is “monetary policy”, and all you can do is take it, the sooner you will stop wondering *why is my ass so sore?* . Maybe you will still have a sore ass, but at least you will really know why. Whether you choose to continue thanking the feds for holding you down while you get pumped is up to you.

“How do you explain the Long Depression?”

A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain.

– Mark Twain

Privatize the gains and socialize the losses.

Exactly. The master plan is proceeding on schedule.

“The master plan is proceeding on schedule.”

I see no evidence of a master plan… just short-sighted greed, wishful thinking, and refusal to accept painful truths.

In the sweatshop countries no job == going hungry.

Precisely the reason why one of my great grandfathers emigrated to this country. He was the youngest of nine children. And there was no work.

It’s a joke.

As in:
IF one were think the US might want to have some “control/influence” over China’s future, the best way is economically.

IF the US were to become China’s biggest customer AND debtor, China would come believe it has control/influence over the US. Much as any lender does.

But what’s the old saying? Owe the bank a million dollars and you have a problem. Owe the bank a billion dollars and the bank has a problem. And if the bank can’t make payroll because of that problem…

But you’re right. I doubt anyone in this government has that kind of intelligence for the long game. Who in their right mind would throw us all under the bus to achieve such a thing? There’s no way we would stand for it!

The US and China are in a weird, codependent state. They need us to buy their crap, and we need their financing to buy their crap, plus we have to buy their crap because we stopped making our own crap.

It’s a beautiful world.

But also it depends on our people being willing to consume their crap on credity (maybe a safe bet as long as credit is available) and their people being willing to make it and send it on credit. You would expect the system to eventually break down on their side and for their people to get tired of working for IOUs…

More like, people getting tired of working for so few IOUs. The IOUs are easily convertible into food, clothing, shelter and other necessities.

The issue is that they are only making $2 of IOUs an hour, while the people consuming the goods they make, earn on average, $20 worth of IOUs an hour.

When will they demand higher pay?

“The US and China are in a weird, codependent state. They need us to buy their crap, and we need their financing to buy their crap, plus we have to buy their crap because we stopped making our own crap.”

Volcker Warns ‘Crisis’ in U.S. Economy Likely

MoneyNews
Friday, June 10, 2005

Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker said he doesn’t see how the U.S. can keep borrowing and consuming while letting foreign countries do all the producing.

It’s a recipe for American economic disaster.

On Thursday the Wall Street Journal reported bluntly that “Mr. Volcker thinks a crisis is likely.”

Volcker believes that investor confidence could fade “at some point,” he said, with “damaging volatility in both exchange markets and interest rates.”

He believes a serious economic crisis is likely unavoidable as the U.S. economy is struggling with what Volcker sees as a hopelessly unsustainable relationship with the rest of the world.

“If I were a biologist I’d call this a perfect example of symbiosis,” Volcker said during a February speech at Stanford University.

“Contented American consumers matched against delighted foreign producers. Happy borrowers matched against willing lenders. The difficulty is, the seemingly comfortable pattern can’t go on indefinitely.”
…

We really did misunderestimate him.

We really did misunderestimate him.

It was his “strategery”

And the USA is different, thank goodness.

The problem is that we are creating money faster than people can earn it into reality,’

unless pay goes up

Hmmm… Not sure I agree with your “making it real”.

I go more with the “wealth is what you buy, and money is what you buy it with” model myself.

Someone builds a house. I go into the bank and borrow some money into existence, and use it to “buy” the house.

The wealth is created when the house is built. The money is created when the loan is taken out. The builder swaps the house for the money.

Now, I do not actually fully “own” the house. I just own the slice that the bank doesn’t own. If I put 20% down, then the bank still has the right to 80% of the “wealth” that the house is. If prices then crash 50%, then really, the bank owns ALL the wealth that is the house.

I will then spend 15 years (or 30 if that is the length of the loan), producing other goods and services, selling them to others to earn money, to pay the rent on the bank’s money creation (interest on the loan) and destroying the money created by the loan (repaying the debt which destroys both the money and the debt), transferring ownership of the wealth of the house from the bank to me.

Note that I can only repay my debt, transferring ownership from the bank to me, if the people with money (the builder and the bank getting the interest money, or people with other money) spend it into the economy, or someone else goes into debt to create new money, so that there is money in circulation for me to earn.

producing other goods and services, selling them to others to earn money… and destroying the money created by the loan

Darrell, I think in essence that we agree. The bank creates *poof* money, in the form of a debt hole. Then you go out and “produce” something. Then you take your produced money and use it to destroy the *poof* money. The end result is new money.

Both us agree that we are transforming *poof* money into real money. Which makes sense. The amount of money in the earth will always increase, because the cumulative amount of work done by humans is always increasing.

We still do not agree. Me writing computer software and selling it to someone does not create money. The software is not money. It is intellectual property, a from of wealth.

Wealth is what you buy. Money is what you buy it with.

They are not the same thing.

Money is other people’s debt, and nothing more. It isn’t software, or gold, or used bicycles, or even a house. Money is created when debt is created. Money flows through the economy, until, hopefully, it ends up in the hands of someone that has debt, used the money to repay the debt, and poofs both the debt and money back out of existence.

The HUGE gaping flaw in our economy is that every year, 8-9% of the GDPs worth of money leaks of of this circulation before finding someone that will use it to repay debt. To maintain our economy, in the face of this massive leakage, we are forced to create 8-9% of GDP worth of new debt/money to replace what has leaked out of circulation.

Like the Economist’s “Big Mac Index”?

Your point strikes me as plausible, though I am still curious if it is supported by data.

“I am still curious if it is supported by data.”

QE is the Fed buying debt from the secondary markets, creating demand and pushing up prices and down yields… I’d say the near-target-inflation rate on short-term debt is a dang good bit of data showing the USA is awash in QE.

Seems even if other countries of private bondholders really started to sell their bonds off the FED could really step in and buy them all with the press.

If you have access to the press what if anything can stop you from using it seems to be your question.

I guess the only thing I see preventing it is hyperinflation.

I was reading somewhere that inflation has not gotten out of control because all the bad debt that is compensating for the printed cash.

The govt needs borrowing costs to be low since the debt has gotten so big. Just think if the interest rate on all those bonds was 10%. all the revenue brought in would just be paying interest.I really think we are going to be in this low rate environment for a long time.

“I guess the only thing I see preventing it is hyperinflation.”

But, inflation happens when too much money is chasing too few goods. If we only put the money into the hands of people that do not spend it, only look to “invest” it, then there should be little to no sustained inflation.

Sure, we could get cost push inflation if the world suddenly allowed the dollar to devalue against other currencies… that could really jack up the price of imports into the USA, which is pretty much everything. Oh course, if the world did that, it would make our goods cheaper and theirs more expensive, crushing their competitive advantage against us.

I’m not saying it will never happen. I’m simply saying that the rest of the world will be VERY hesitant to do it.

only look to “invest” it,

depends on what they invest in

maybe india billionares backed by Goldman Sachs will decide to buy the entire wheat crop of S America?

Certainly American workers are not getting too much money but think globally money does

And what will that billionaire do with the entire wheat crop? Eat it himself? Put it in a warehouse to rot or be consumed by pests? Sell it to.. whom?

Again, we come down to speculators being able to influence prices over the short-term, but long-term, prices are set by end user demand, and that means money in the hands of people that can and will spend it.

fits well with my point…they will stop…only when the bond markets makes them stop.

it’s just that right now the central banks are the bond markets.

i do think there is still some time before there is a full blown USD currency crisis though.

Who said all that, Stockman or the host? I can’t find where it segues to Stockman in that horrid wall of text.

Play the video and it’ll be more clear:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000109364&play=1

“How can this scenario be delayed? Congress and the Executive Branch can balance the budget and start making considerable headway into paying down the 16 trillion dollar debt and unfunded liabilities.”

I wonder if this is even possible. The deficit is so large and people are used to the current level of government spending. If cuts were made to bring the budget in line, tax receipts would drop too throwing the budget off again. Can severe enough cuts be made to get ahead of the curve without leading to a tax revolt?

Can severe enough cuts be made to get ahead of the curve without leading to a tax revolt?

That’s why I give it 20%… the odds are not in our favor. Also, the timing has to be right: grow economy, cut government spending. If we try and reign in government spending before the private economy is growing, we’ll just see a repeat of the PIIGS here.

“The only way that can occur without a rehash of what is happening in Europe is through increased intrinsic growth of the economy. Fix the economy and we can fix the fiscal issues, to include excessively easy monetary policy by the FED. ”

I agree. I would achieve this “fixing of the economy” by attacking and reversing the trade imbalances that cause money to leak from circulation at 8% of GDP per year. That is, ending free trade and returning to a very steep income tax system like we had in the 1950s, while eliminating or at least drastically lowering payroll taxes.

And your plan?

or we could trick somebody into starting world war 4.

what happened to the 3rd one?

so can the system stay afloat if the FED is the only one buying treasuries?

“so can the system stay afloat if the FED is the only one buying treasuries?”

Sure.

There is no hard limit as to how much the Fed can buy.

If the Fed buying results in too much money going into the hands of people that will spend it, then we could get inflation. Somehow, I don’t see the people with the $38T suddenly running out and buying up a millennium’s worth of food for themselves and their families.

Oh, sure, they can run out and buy up a bunch of futures, driving up the prices short-term, but once those contracts come due and they have to take delivery, they can’t actually put every scrap off food and every drop of oil into their pantries and storage tanks. In the end, real end user demand will set prices, not speculators.

But they hope they can kick the can down the road.

Sometimes I think “kick the can” has surpassed soccer as world’s #1 sport. Move over FIFA, there’s a new king in town.

“As for who approved this? Do you have to ask? The teachers’ union.”

I generally try to check the facts before posting.

Do you have any documentation of how many “teacher’s union members” attended all the costly dinners mentioned below?

BOND UNDERWRITER PURCHASED MEALS FOR POWAY SCHOOL BOARD
Officials initially didn’t report dinners on state-mandated forms
Written by Ashly McGlone
12:01 a.m., Sept. 1, 2012
Updated 7:52 p.m. , Aug. 31, 2012

Timeline

Feb. 5, 2008: Poway Unified voters approve $179 million Proposition C bond measure.

June 6, 2008: Stone & Youngberg sells $92.68 million in lease revenue bonds for Poway Unified, not Proposition C bonds. The firm made $1.11 million on the deal.

Dec. 4, 2008: Stone & Youngberg hosts a California School Boards Association dinner in San Diego valued at $65 per meal. Superintendent John Collins and board member Penny Ranftle accept two meals each, while board members Todd Gutschow, Andy Patapow and Linda Vanderveen accept one.

Jan. 9, 2009: Stone & Youngberg sells nearly $74 million in Proposition C bonds. The firm makes more than $769,000 on the deal.

April 1, 2009: State mandated deadline for economic disclosure forms. District officials fail to disclose 2008 dinners from Stone & Youngberg.

Dec. 3, 2009: Stone & Youngberg host a CSBA dinner in San Diego valued at $100 per meal. Collins and Vanderveen accept two meals each. Ranftle, Patapow and Gutschow each accept a single meal.

March 10, 2010: Stone & Youngberg sells nearly $25 million in capital appreciation bond anticipation notes. The firm made $147,488 on the deal.

April 1, 2010: State mandated deadline for economic disclosure forms. District officials fail to disclose 2009 dinners from Stone & Youngberg.

Oct. 11, 2010: Board authorizes district staff to begin process of selling the balance of its Proposition C bonds, totaling $105 million, and names Stone & Youngberg underwriter.

Dec. 2, 2010: Stone & Youngberg hosts CSBA dinner in San Francisco valued at $42.32 per meal. Collins accepts two meals. Vanderveen, Ranftle, Gutschow and Patapow accept one meal. Board member Marc Davis also attends but does not report it since it was below the $50 value required for reporting, he said.

Jan. 27, 2011: Stone & Youngberg buys Superintendent Collins a $52.50 dinner.

April 1, 2011: State mandated deadline for economic disclosure forms. District officials fail to disclose 2010 dinners from Stone & Youngberg.

May 24, 2011: Board authorizes district staff and consultants to prepare and distribute official statement pertaining to the series B 2011 bond sale.

Aug. 3, 2011: Stone & Youngberg sells $105 million in capital appreciation bonds on behalf of the district with a promise to repay investors $981 million by 2051. Stone & Youngberg is paid $813,751 for work on the deal.

Nov. 17, 2011: Stone & Youngberg buys a $52.97 dinner for Poway Unified’s assistant superintendent of business, Malliga Tholandi. Tholandi accepts a $54.97 meal the same day from Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe, special bond counsel on the 2011 CAB deal.

Dec. 1, 2011: Stone & Youngberg hosts a CSBA dinner in San Diego valued at $99.81 per person. Collins, Vanderveen and Ranftle accept two meals each. Patapow accepts one meal. Davis attends and reimburses the firm for the meal, he said.

March 12, 2012: Four district board members and Superintendent Collins amend filings, some dating back to 2008, to report meals from Stone & Youngberg.

April 1, 2012: State mandated deadline for economic disclosure forms. District officials disclose 2011 dinners from Stone & Youngberg in their original filings.

The underwriter of Poway Unified’s controversial $105 million bond deal hosted $2,200 in dinners for the school district’s officials in recent years — most of which they accepted and initially failed to report on state-mandated disclosure forms.

In March, the officials belatedly disclosed the meals dating back several years, as the District Attorney’s Office prosecution of South Bay school board members for failing to report such meals made the news.

“Honestly, I think we all looked at our filings as a result of some of the things down in Sweetwater and realized we had not been reporting receptions,” said Poway board member Todd Gutschow, who took $207 in meals. “I think all school board members are probably more conscious of it now than perhaps they were a year or two ago. I don’t think it was devious in any way.”

The meals at statewide school-board member conferences were hosted by Stone & Youngberg, the broker for last year’s Poway bond issue that has become controversial because of its steep down-the-line payback terms. Taxpayers are on the hook for $981 million by 2051.

The underwriter, selected by the district without competitive bids, made $813,751 for its work on the deal.

Tops among recipients of the firm’s meals is Superintendent John Collins, who reported accepting $670 worth since 2008. Collins said the meals did not influence the district’s use of the firm for the job.

“Staff and board members attend conferences and meetings to represent the district at the state and national level,” Collins said in a statement. “These events are important on many levels. It is unreasonable to expect that our representatives be prohibited from interacting with industry colleagues and corporate firms who provide services to the educational community. We are completing and filing the legally required documents.”

Fourteen-year board member Linda Vanderveen, currently serving as board president, ranks second in gifts from the firm at just under $507. She said the gifts at meetings of the California School Boards Association did not affect her judgment.

“At CSBA, either the district picks up our dinner or a firm invites us and tons of clients. In these times of budget crisis, if we can save the district some money, then we do it, but certainly not because they are currying favor with us,” Vanderveen said.

Gutschow, in his sixth year on the board, also said the meals were incidental.

“Stone & Youngberg has worked for us for a very long time, and that relationship and our ability to get things done effectively and efficiently is the reason we continue to use them, not because of a $30 or $40 a year dinner,” Gutschow said.

The Poway officials had their awareness boosted by events at the Sweetwater Union High School District in Chula Vista, where four current and former officials have been charged with felony perjury and felony filing a false statement after failing to report meals and other gifts from contractors. Those cases are different in that prosecutors are offering additional evidence of a quid pro quo for the meals accepted. The officials have pleaded not guilty.
…

Doesn’t this support what I was saying?

Government unions + wall street + Fed = massive spending + debt.

Military Complex + wall street + Fed = massive spending + debt.

You can pick either party and get the same result. Short term positive results and long term pain. Self interest at the expense of sustainability.

All I ask for is a sustainable plan - pay as you go. But then again I’ve lowered my standards about what I want. I used to want a lot more. But I’ve given up. Now I just want a system that isn’t going to blow up by design. Sad but true.

“I generally try to check the facts before posting.”

he he, ha ha ha….

You made a funny!

tell us again how many union members are on the school board that took the free meals and likely other gifts.

Uh … aren’t school boards elected by the public?

Er not really…

http://powayteachers.org/school-board-election.html

Poway School Board Election Results:

Three of the 4 PFT endorsed candidates for Poway School Board won seats. Congratulations!
PFT looks forward to working with our Board.

The PFT is the Poway Teachers Union.

Oh and look who the PFT chose: Marc Davis and Todd Gutschow. Where have I seen those names before???

And if you look up each one of these guys you’ll find they are bought and paid for by the PFT.

Then the residents of Poway can only blame themselves for electing the board that they did.

In my little burg the school board keeps the union on a short leash. For instance, under the current contract, new hires don’t get pensions, because there’s no money for that.

Of course, TABOR makes it next to impossible for our school board to pull of something like what happened in Poway. Bond issues have to be approved by local voters, and in in my town they are VERY tightfisted when it comes to debt. Last year there was a ballot issue that would have raised home property taxes by about $100 a year, to help restore some of the funding the school district lost over the past few years. About 2/3 voted no.

Good find Bay Area. In this case, the union is guilty as hell for stacking the deck.

But, as Colorado says and I’ve said many times, education is locally controlled and if people don’t like their schools, they only have themselves to blame for electing the school board that enables it. They can not only vote for their own interest, but they can just as easily field their own candidate or even run for the board themselves!

I don’t have an iron in the fire when it comes to county school boards, so I regularly just figure out who isn’t the union supported candidate and vote for that person. And I am a union member. I just prefer to send a signal to the school board that they have constituents outside the teachers…like the kids (sort of, most of the students are under 18 and some aren’t citizens) and the rest of the county.

Does it change anything? Nope. But it would if a lot of other people did what I do.

Turn out on local elections is usually terrible. Some places can get as low as 10%. If you don’t like what the school board does, it wouldn’t take much effort to get out enough voters to change the results. Not much at all.

I regularly just figure out who isn’t the union supported candidate and vote for that person

Which makes perfect sense, as the school board should be accountable to the students and by extension, to their parents as well as all taxpayers who fund the school district. The teachers already have a Union to represent them.

Colorado - I lived in Boulder, Co for a while. Colorado in general is more conservative (and tight fisted financially as you say) than California. I am actually impressed with how well Colorado has lived within its means. They have worked hard to keep a good balance. I’m not saying they couldn’t do better but in general they have done a lot of things right.

California not so much… You really have to live here and see it to believe it.

I go in to vote:

No
No
No
No
And Hell NO!

And next to me in the voting both are long lines for of folks dressed in tie-dye (not that there is anything wrong with that) marking “yes” to every single spending measure on the ballet every single time - I listen to them chat as they vote and they are so Oh! Yes - more freebies! It’s mind blowing.

There is no self control by the electorate here. They all want theirs. So many people here work for (or have worked for) the government in some capacity and belong to the unions and have benefits coming. It’s hard to believe.

I try to talk to them I really do. I have friends on both side of the political spectrum - I’m a likable guy - I really try to discuss it openly and respect - sticking only to the facts as best I can. But they just don’t get it.They tell me that California will pay all their retirement and medical benefits to them no matter what. They have to! It’s a contract! They can’t get out of it! In fact some have told me they have California agreeing to pay for their grown children’s benefits too - for life! But I tell them it simply isn’t mathematically possible and I go over some numbers but they insist - that state must pay them all their benefits! it’s a contract! It’s like Upton Sinclair’s principle: “it’s difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

Heck my mom is retired from the Rhode Island teachers’ union. She could never follow my math - it just couldn’t be - they will pay every darn penny. The Union will make sure of that. They’ll fight it! She’s only now just starting to get it as R.I.’s retirement fund is going broke but she’s holding out hope. Uffffah!

And the thing is the unions have a system here where if those that oversee their salary don’t agree to higher benefits and wages that it goes to arbitration automatically. The arbitration is done by a court run by a union member judge that sides with the union every single time. So every year they get more and more.

This will only end in one of two ways:

1) California will burn to the ground and only then will people here finally understand that the people warning about this by using math weren’t wrong after all. Although they’ll probably just find someone else to blame it on.

Or

2) The conflict of interest ends. We can’t trust ourselves, we as humans are imperfect and will always try to game the system for more or worse we end up playing dirty (which they do). We should never be trusted in a position to self deal i.e. in a conflict of interest. To this end public unions must end.

If # 1 happens 13% of the nations GDP (California contribution) will end up in a world of hurt. The only honest sustainable thing to do is to outlaw public sector unions.

Look I don’t want to go back to the days or child labor and 16 hour days at the mill. I’m not saying we should end private sector unions. But I think people in California are willing to be generous. But when budget projects show these types of self dealing benefit plans are going to blow I just don’t see any alternative to avoid a crash. It’s California’s problem (and Illinois, R.I., N.J. and N.Y and a few other places as well). But it’s soon going to hurt the nation. It’s time we get people past the rhetoric of “it’s for the kids” and show people that we are dealing with a mufti-billion dollar lobbying machine that plays dirty.

And before you call me heartless - not only is my own mother a retired school teacher, I also taught math and science for a while. I know something about the job, the kids and the people involved. I’m willing to be generous. In the long run doing this will create more security for teachers, not less. That’s all I’m asking for is sustainability. The Ponzi schemes must end. Not just for unions but for everyone (bankers, defense - you pick).

And the teacher’s union makes it very easy. They send around information about who is on their “apple ballot.” I just have to get the list, figure out who isn’t on the apple ballot and then read up on them to make sure they aren’t completely abhorent. There are some people who don’t even deserve a protest vote.

Given the invasive mess at the Iraq/Iran/Turkey/Syria borders, and the ongoing Sunni/Shia civil war, I’m betting USSD rues the day they murdered Saddam. He may have been a brutal Stalinist dictator, but he was OUR brutal Stalinist dictator.

And he had nothing to do with 911.

Egyptians angry at film scale U.S. embassy walls

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/11/us-egypt-usa-protest-idUSBRE88A11N20120911?irpc=932

There is no God but God, and Mohammad is his messenger”

Which is why all we’ll get out of “drill, baby, drill” are oil spills on our beaches. OK, there will be some jobs, but we won’t be getting cheaper fuel out of the deal.

When I said “mistake”, that was my personal opinion… that invading Iraq was a mistake and that it took away from the real fight that was Afghanistan.

It was obviously done with deliberate intent on the part of the Bush Administration…

Well, since they’re all volunteers (as opposed to being drafted) they still bear some of the responsibility for what happens. If no one volunteered then the gov’t would have to resort to an extremely unpopular draft, and then maybe, just maybe, we wouldn’t be mired in so many wars.

That said, I still remember the old “No Draft, No War” bumper stickers (the 80’s version of Coexist bumper sticker) from my college days. Little did the people who slapped those suckers on their car’s bumpers know that someday young Americans would line up to serve in the middle east.

I don’t think it’s realistic to hold economically drafted 18yos responsible for national policy, even if they “volunteered”.

Without soldiers there would be no war.

Without our soldiers there would be no freedom.

Russia, China, Iran and many others would just love to see us give up so that there would be no war.

Darryl…. you do pretty good at keeping a lid on it until Darryl The Liar trots out his lies.

Why Darryl The Liar?

Are you saying it’s different there or do really need to jump down off sfrenters lap?

You didn’t answer my question. Here, I’ll simplify it for you. Why do you insist on citing regional numbers for people here who are buying a place to live?

Investors care about regional numbers because they are looking for monetary return. Even if they are going to live in a house, they may care more about the potential for that house to increase in value within a particular time period (however unlikely that is in most of the US)
and be willing to buy in a place that doesn’t suit their exact needs to get it.

People looking for a place to live care about extremely small areas because they are only going to buy one house. They may only care about the numbers in a few square blocks. They may find information about locations even a few miles away to be irrelevant. The priorities of people who want to live in a house are entirely different than the priorities of people who want to use a house as an investment.

Why do you insist on conflating the two?

And why do you take the role of amateur presstitute for the Housing Crime Syndicate?

Why do you insist on conflating the two?

Polly, do you even need to ask that question?

No, Colorado, not really. I just thought it was a pretty good way to present the question and wanted to write it out. Maybe I am a little jealous? I wish I knew where I wanted to live/what I wanted to live in enough to be able to even do a comparative cost analysis. I am more than willing to live in a very nice one bedroom apartment in my current location for now, but I don’t think it is what I want to live in for the next 20 to 40 years.

It is funny, though, isn’t it? That Pimp is the one person on this blog who, when he bothers to think at all, thinks entirely like an investor, even more than the people who say they are actual investors in real estate.

Polly, it’s like talking to my bipolar cousin or a 2-year-old. It doesn’t matter what you say logic does not compute. Obviously the Bay Area has massive amounts of gorgeous rentals just perfect for a young couple with young kids. In fact, the Bay Area doesn’t have a single undesirable rental in the entire area and you could just throw a dart at a Craig’s List printout and find the perfect home for 4 for $1,000/month. And it only takes a couple minutes to get from any part of the Bay Area to San Francisco so one should be able to live anywhere and still have all the benefits of being in the city itself.

I’ve decided to give up on the trolls and just ignore them. The name calling and childish ranting has certainly diminished the value of this forum and the straw man arguments have grown increasingly insane. I’m not sure why everyone is so grumpy, but it is getting tiresome. If someone never answers a question (you know, the really tough ones like “link?”) it’s time to write them off as argumentative sociopaths. It’s all about the fight and never about the solution.

BTW, thanks for always being here with the logical lawyer’s voice. I know it doesn’t seem like it sometimes, but it really is appreciated.

We won’t be ignoring the pimp parade….. have no doubt in your mind about that.

Take a look at the 5 year for total houses sold. The trend is pretty flat. It could suggest a bottom, for those that are big believers in trends. Personally I got turned off trends thanks to the Realtors constantly citing them as proof the bubble would continue.

And I thought there was new supply being produced. If not, that’s a pretty major upward pressure on pricing. Maybe that explains the almost year long trend of upward price movement (once again, if you believe in trends.)

Technical anaylsis does seem to be too technical for some.

5 year windows aren’t TA. And the price pressure is demonstrated in falling sales.

That TA is quite fundamental.

The “to” didn’t just “slip in”. It’s a code word.

How did Texas get in there? The planes were from Boston. CIA headquarters is in Virginia. Just a little seriously, I have heard a lot of conspiracy theories about 9/11, but never that it was orchestrated by Bush 41.

There is a little truth in every “conspiracy”. The truth about 9.11 is that Israel had the 9.11 suspects under surveillance in the US and at any point could have notified the FBI regarding their entry into the US and potential threat. The truth is that Israel benefited greatly by the 9.11 attacks on the US, as it unleashed the dogs of war in the ME, primarily against those Israel sees as threats.

Saddam Hussein as a counter balance to Iran was much better for Israel than the current situation. Israel also preferred the old regime in Egypt and would prefer for Syria to go back to the way it was 6 months ago. What has happened over the past decade in the Middle East has been a disaster as far as Israeli security goes.

Check out the wikipedia article on “Able Danger.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Danger

Think how easy it would be to get Sadam to attack Iran. Now we have Iran controlling Iraq.

just in

Documents show the U.S. was given more warnings about potential terrorist attacks in the weeks leading up to 9/11, writes Vanity Fair contributing editor Kurt Eichenwald in a New York Times op-ed.

The documents predate the presidential daily briefing on Aug. 6, 2001, which said, “Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.”

“The administration’s reaction to what Mr. Bush was told in the weeks before that infamous briefing reflected significantly more negligence than has been disclosed,” he wrote. “In other words, the Aug. 6 document, for all of the controversy it provoked, is not nearly as shocking as the briefs that came before it.”

The direct warnings to Bush, he writes, date back to the spring of 2001. On May 1, the CIA told the White House that there was “a group presently in the United States” that was planning an attack. On June 22, a daily briefing described the attack as “imminent.” Administration officials, however, dismissed the warnings, saying that Osama bin Laden was merely feigning an attack to distract the U.S. from efforts against Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

“Intelligence officials, these sources said, protested that the idea of Bin Laden, an Islamic fundamentalist, conspiring with Mr. Hussein, an Iraqi secularist, was ridiculous, but the neoconservatives’ suspicions were nevertheless carrying the day,” Eichenwald wrote. “In response, the CIA prepared an analysis that all but pleaded with the White House to accept that the danger from Bin Laden was real.”

Briefings on June 29, July 1, and July 24 carried similar warnings. On July 9, Eichenwald writes, one official suggested staff members of the CIA Counterterrorism Center “put in for a transfer so that somebody else would be responsible when the attack took place

news.yahoo.com/u-iran-decides-nuclear-bomb-panetta-133145606.html

But a step beyond Saddam counterbalancing Iran is no one in the region counterbalancing Iran. Who, at that point, would attempt to reign Iran in? The US, of course. As long as Iraq was in the way, the US had reason to not confront Iran directly. With Iraq out of the way, the US [and international community] became much more involved.

I always assumed the Iraq invasion was about unfinished business after Gulf War I, Iraqi Oil, and having another “ally” in the region from which to stage troops, use friendly airspace, etc. I also remember reading about how the Bush administration was gearing up for attacking Iraq before 9.11. 9.11 just provided a convenient excuse. In hindsight, if your goal was the eventual attack on Iran, it made perfect sense.

What has happened over the past decade in the Middle East has been a disaster as far as Israeli security goes.

Nonesense. What would Israel rather have, her enemies mired in never ending civil wars or strongly united behind a mad man?

Face it, in the war between the Oiligarchy and Saddam Hussein, Iran won.

PS. The US State Department knew what was going to happen, when, it was going to happen, where it was going to happen, how it was going to happen, and who was going to do it– down to the State Department issued visas for the hijackers. And then they let it happen.

All while staging a multi-state, multi-agency “emergency response” drill along the Eastern Seaboard.

And as a final cynical insult to the American public, all this on 911.

I always assumed the Iraq invasion was about unfinished business after Gulf War I

And if you think we as a nation had unfinished business with Iraq after GW1, just think how much unfinished business we have with Iran after 1980.

would could go back and finish the Vietnam war.

I couldn’t believe my ears when I heard Bush say that we should go shopping and take trips. It was appalling then. And now.

The implication that we should have just carried on as if noting had happened was absurd. Heck, I knew a few people who couldn’t get home from business trips. One of them rented a car and drove over 1000 miles to get back.

Which should tell you all you need to know about the level of contempt the PTB have for us 99%.

11 years ago today, I was stuck at my office. No trains were taking passengers toward NYC, even if you got off before entering the city. The highways were closed headed toward the city even if your final destination was in New Jersey. My employer had reserved a few of us rooms at a crappy motel. When we got there we had no clothes, no toiletries, no food. The closest restaurant was closed because the chef couldn’t get there. We finally found some toiletries at a drug store and a chinese restaurant that was serving food. I took a risk that my clothes would dry overnight, but they were still damp when I had to put them on the next morning. When I got to the office, my boss told me to go home, but I couldn’t leave until I could confirm the trains were running in both directions and could buy something from the cafeteria in case they stopped them again. When I got home, there were people standing along the waterfront taking pictures of the smoking hole in the ground. I was checking out the leaves of the shrubs to find out if any of the toxic dust had drifted our way since my windows were wide open. I finally got home about 3 in the afternoon - approximately 30 hours after the attack.

In all the years since, I have never worked any place without keeping food, water, toiletries and a sleep shirt in my desk. And I’ve pretty much never put myself in a work situation where I couldn’t walk home in a few hours.

Good story, polly. Thank you.

I’ve heard that the paintings were actually done in layers, just like fotoshop. You put your man in a boat image anywhere you want on the canvas, then add other stuff. How bogus is that?

the paintings were actually done in layers

Scratch a few layers off Washington Crossing the Delaware, and you’ll find it’s Cornelius Vanderbilt being rowed to his lake house by Federal Reserve employees.

Now that’s funny!

LOL

I think the Chinese dislike them more. And the Koreans too.

Wonder what happens after that

Um… hire more government contractors?

Wonder what happens after that

Um… hire more government contractors?

Channeling Kirk in “The Wrath of Khan”…

GOON! GOON! [Fist raised in the air]

GOON! GOON! [Fist raised in the air]

LOL!

Actually, I was more along the lines of Colonel Klink: Hogan!

Superintendent Chalmers: Skiiiinnnneeeerrrrr?!?!?!?

Come on people….

With all the Reagan lovers out there, SOMEONE has to want to debate these numbers with me, RIGHT?

Seriously, not even a CIBT witty comeback like “so you keep saying but that doesn’t make it true” or RAL’s slightly less witty “shut up you lying housing pimp”?

Surly 2banana will finally answer my accusations that Reagan’s economic growth was based on unsustainable debt/money creation.

Disrespectful.

“Disrespectful.”

Intentionally.

“Disrespectful.”

Intentionally.

Moronically.

So the usual Republican response here would be “But he single-handedly brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union”…

“But he single-handedly brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union”…

I seem to recall reading once that Gorbechev said that honor belonged to Pope John Paul II.

Whether anyone agrees with your assertion about economics or politics isn’t the point.

The point is you’re a lying troll.

“Intentionally”

Unwelcome.

Bush Jr. also pushed me out of the GOP.

But, he was the victim of poor timing. Sure, the housing bubble was HUGE, but so were our trade imbalances. The private sector debt growth, while crushing, was not providing the new money/debt that we needed to feed the trade imbalances.

Who was it that talks about the insatiable maw of Wall Street? Sorry, but even the housing bubble was unable to keep private sector debt growing fast enough to feed the beast, so Bush had to step in with government debt to feed the co-monsters of international trade and widening wealth disparity.

I agree, Darrell. The only consolation in realizing that the Murkin public truly WAS stupid enough to allow a twaat like George W anywhere near their White House again, was knowing that he would inherit the fiasco that was about to befall our economy.

Silly me. I felt certain voters would note the blatant corruption and replace him in 2004…. But I have to give the administration credit for the housing bubble circus. An absolutely brilliant distraction that actually fed their looting.

Smarter, or more criminal?

“If in other sciences we should arrive at certainty without doubt and truth without error, it behooves us to place the foundations of knowledge in mathematics.”
- Roger Bacon

11th Century English Philosopher and (bringing it back to Pilot asking Jesus what truth is) a Franciscan friar

That would be good for the economy….

You assume they could sell the house. You assume rent is cheaper than owning. You assume the parents have room for them and are willing to let them move in. You assume mass transit is cheaper than a beater car. You assume they have iPhones.

Thats a lot of assumptions.

You can’t cut your way to prosperity. The problem is employment… I’m guessing if the wife was working and bringing in a decent paycheck, things wouldn’t be so tight.

“You can’t cut your way to prosperity. The problem is employment… I’m guessing if the wife was working and bringing in a decent paycheck, things wouldn’t be so tight.”

Unless they would have to pay more for day care than she could earn. Oh, he takes care of the kids.. then he loses unemployment, which could also be more than she could earn.

You are right, you can’t cut your way to prosperity. Unfortunately, not everyone has a “well above median IQ” like you and I. Not everyone can be a highly paid computer programmer.

An economy needs to provide jobs for people with below median IQ too. Unfortunately, we’ve out sourced most of those. In the words of McSame, those jobs are gone and never coming back, so we need to retrain everyone to do the remaining jobs that you need an IQ in the top 10% to be successful at, and top 1% to be highly successful at.

My “attitude” is that he tried to do the right thing, but for people like you, nothing is ever good enough.

No - drastically cutting expenses means … Moving in with mom and dad

And if they did that, you’d be the first one to be calling them losers and deadbeats.

2banana, why won’t you comment on my claims that total debt increased 141% during Reagan’s 8 years in office?

Why will you not comment on my claims that under Reagan, total debt increased faster than sustainable (population and wages), faster than GDP, faster than tax receipts?

If Reagan was a great president, and debt is so horrid, then surely I must be wrong that the key to prosperity under Reagan was unsustainable debt growth…. right?

And yet, you let me repeatedly make these comments, and present the data, with no attempt by you to counter argue my points.

What’s up with that?

Do you know what “The Secret” is?

Oh, no.

So, you are saying that the other 3 SEALs, and the people in the helicopter, just didn’t try hard enough?

The story you told actually makes the point….. Try hard, and you MIGHT get what you need. Try real hard, and the RPG might just instantly convert your brain into a fine pink mist….

No. I’m saying that life is going to throw you hardship. The only way you can thrive is by never giving up hope and always giving 100%. A number of SEALS died that day on the mountain. If Marcus had given up hope, he would have too… he is only here today because he never gave up.

It sounds to me like Turkey has given up and is wracked with negativity and self-doubt… if there is any certainty in this world other than death [and taxes], it is that hopelessness, negativity, and doubt are the enemies of success, in any endeavor.

Goddamn! Feel like I’m following a dog who just flushed a big ol’ grouse!

Do you know what “The Secret” is?

Oh, no.

Answer me this Alpha… what do successful entrepreneurs, professional athletes, and Navy SEALS all have in common?

Answer:
They all use visualization of the desired outcome as part of the mental preparation for success in a difficult endeavor.

And that proves that if you work hard, you will get what you need?

You call it negativity. I call it reality.

Work hard, and you MIGHT get what you need. Or, you might work hard and still die of starvation (usually just effects people in other countries since we have the social safety net… at least for awhile longer.)

“Do you know what “The Secret” is?”

A book with a cultish following about wishing and hoping hard enough to get what you want. (And of course, if you don’t get it you obviously just didn’t want it badly enough.)

Seriously, you follow that piece of crap? The little boy wishing so hard for a bike and one day, out of the blue someone buys it for him? The universe “offers” it to him? What bullmuck.

I don’t care how hard you wish and hope for something the universe is never going to offer you a damn thing except, if you’re lucky, opportunity. The kid could have looked around and seen what odd jobs needed to be done and earned the money for the bike. That I would have respected. But no….the universe just delivered it to the spoiled little entitled s^&%.

Personally, I think “The Secret” and all the other BS pop-psychology crap like it, did as much harm during the bubble as the mortgage brokers did. After all, prices will only go up because they “deserved” it and the “universe” was rewarding them for wishing the “right” way.

(Yeah, not a fan of psychology, pop psychology, the entire self-help industry, and other related snake oil. Ever notice how community and hard work were replaced by “me, me, me” and “it’s all about MY feelings?” This pseudo-science has done more damage to America than heroin.)

[Sorry for the rant. Not terribly sorry, but a little sorry.]

Northeastener - I too believe in perseverance, hard work, and keeping hope alive. Like I said, the universe will hand out opportunity and you have to be willing to use it to your advantage and not give up. I think we probably agree on most of this. Just that book/video bugged the crap out of me and I saw people make some pretty stupid decisions because of it.

But if you think the other soldiers died because they didn’t believe something hard enough (and I don’t think you do) then the secret has won.

A book with a cultish following about wishing and hoping hard enough to get what you want.

Wrong. The message was always about mental preparation. Success in any endeavor requires an alignment of luck, skill, preparation and the right mental attitude. If you can’t visualize yourself succeeding, than you won’t succeed, period. This is as true for top athletes, top executives, and entrepreneurs as it is for the average person.

But if you think the other soldiers died because they didn’t believe something hard enough (and I don’t think you do) then the secret has won.

I don’t believe the statement above at all. Success [in life as much as in war] has to do with luck as much as anything else. Those SEALS were unlucky, regardless of their mental state and preparation. My point has more to do with the survivor.

the universe will hand out opportunity and you have to be willing to use it to your advantage

Exactly. If you can’t visualize that opportunity [and your success], then your mind is already working against you. It takes an alignment of mind, body, and opportunity to win.

Isn’t “The Secret” just prosperity Gospel without God and with hoping and wishing instead of praying and giving money to your church?

“A book with a cultish following about wishing and hoping hard enough to get what you want.”

“man’s search for meaning” by Viktor Frankl?

Isn’t “The Secret” just prosperity Gospel without God and with hoping and wishing instead of praying and giving money to your church?

In a nutshell, yes. But reality is a little more complicated. What “The Secret” and “Prosperity Gospel” are dialing into is the idea that it necessary for you to believe in and visualize mentally the outcome you are trying to achieve. Without the visualization of the outcome, without the certain belief in your ability to achieve the outcome, there can be no success. It is all about achieving the proper mental attitude. There can be no doubt, there is only room for you and the outcome [whatever that outcome is]. Not to say that achieving the desired outcome only requires the proper mental attitude. As I stated in my post above, luck and skill [preparation] have as much to do with it as anything else…

I know it sounds hokey, but I’ll try and put it in terms that are more easily understood.

In World Cup Alpine Ski Racing, you have the fastest downhill skiers in the world competing against one another. They are insanely fit, strong, and have logged thousands of hours on and off the slopes, training.

In any given race, any of the racers have the ability to win. What factor, then, determines who wins any particular race? They are all expert skiers, all have the best equipment available, and all are equally fit… the easy answer is luck, and that is a factor in any competition, but it does not explain why certain racers win with a higher proportion than others.

I think it is mental preparation. It is visualization. It is belief. It is a lack of self-doubt. It is the racer who can stand on the course prior to the race and visualize him/herself setting up every turn perfectly, no mistakes.

That is “The Secret”.

“Without the visualization of the outcome, without the certain belief in your ability to achieve the outcome, there can be no success. It is all about achieving the proper mental attitude.”

Pure hokum.

I went into many a job interview, uncertain if I would be offered the position.

Sure, I’d prepared. But I had not wasted time visualizing myself getting the job, or pretending I was sure I would be offered the job, when pure reality of the situation was that there were likely other candidates, and there was nothing in my power to do to prevent the other candidates from also preparing for the interview…

Sometimes of got the job, and sometimes I didn’t.

Heck, I was pretty darn sure I wasn’t going to get a promotion this year… but I did.

Setting goals, and taking action to achieve those goals, is certainly a way to help achieve those goals.

Visualization, and lying to yourself that you are certain you will achieve the goal???? Hokum.

No. I’m saying that life is going to throw you hardship. The only way you can thrive is by never giving up hope and always giving 100%. A number of SEALS died that day on the mountain. If Marcus had given up hope, he would have too… he is only here today because he never gave up.

Not to discount hte mans bravery but he was found in a ditch by Tribesman after being blown up. If he had given up hope you think he would not have been found by the tribesman and nursed back to health?

Hard work is important, intelligence is important but there are plenty of smart hard working optimistic poor people who live horrible lives, develope bad diseases or cancer, are hit by busses or have strokes etc, and there are plenty of dumb lazy and or pessimistic rich people who are lucky win the lottery in money, influence, looks, athletics, voice etc.

“What “The Secret” and “Prosperity Gospel” are dialing into is the idea that it necessary for you to believe in and visualize mentally the outcome you are trying to achieve. Without the visualization of the outcome, without the certain belief in your ability to achieve the outcome, there can be no success. It is all about achieving the proper mental attitude. There can be no doubt, there is only room for you and the outcome [whatever that outcome is]. Not to say that achieving the desired outcome only requires the proper mental attitude. As I stated in my post above, luck and skill [preparation] have as much to do with it as anything else…”

Don’t disagree with you a bit on this part. It’s the part where the little boy wants a bike and someone just buys it for him. It was handed to him on a silver platter. There was no prep, no belief grown in himself, no working towards it. He wanted it, he got it. And that’s the message of the secret.

Most of us here are well-educated, hard-working and don’t expect anything from anyone for free. Many of us also know we got dang lucky in life (i.e. just being born in the USA for one thing.) No one that I’ve meet here has not had some fairly strong adversity in life (i.e. mauled by a bear among others) and some have overcome problems that would have crippled others. So belief in ourselves, preparation for what we want, some luck, and hard work has served many of us well. We didn’t sit around and think if we believe hard enough the good life would be handed to us - we worked for it (and I have no doubt you did too.)

You may want to watch (or rewatch) the video version of the secret. I found it sickening and playing right into the hands of the free $^!# army. And yes I have no respect for that book and despise the damage it’s done.

On the other hand it made a hell of a lot of money for the writers.

Although you never hear about it now as the “true believers” lives (and Helocs) crashed around them. In fact, your reference was the first time I heard about it in a couple of years.

How many people visualize themselves winning the lottery, and how many win?

visualizaton helps me with public speaking…that’s for sure.