The Housing Bubble

I love you, man!

I’d kiss you (with tongue) if you put that up on Youtube. (Your wife might object but that’s her problem.)

Just do it!

“So what is the proper course of action for buyers and sellers in a buyer’s market Campano? Please enlighten me.

I feel so much dumber after having read that.”

I think I can summarize the point:

1) If you think you might ever want to buy a home at any point over your future lifetime, then buy now, or else get priced out forever.

2) If you have a home you want to sell, then you had better do it quickly, before the various current extend-and-pretend market manipulations crumble and price declines resume, leaving you priced in forever.

3) Whether you are a buyer or a seller, be sure to employ a Realtor™ and pay them a generous 6% commission on your trade.

“…And I walked back to my pad.

The end.
…”

So very excellent, it’s just left me breathless.

Loved it, SF.

WOW! Where has this approach been among the realtor crowd, Blue? A definite winner.

** NOTE: just a week ago, my alias was MacBeth. I’m trying this new alias for effect. I rather like it - it makes me laugh. If enough people here are offended, I’ll switch back. If just a few are offended, well….

I’m all for your new nick.

The Berkeley Green-G_ddess crowd is sure to object.

Of course, they’ve already gone full-ret@rd over housing so the irony is likely lost on them.

I’m all for your new nick.

Of course you are. It’s almost as good as a husband dying at 46, his sick wife losing her house and their 6 year old daughter losing her daddy. All of which you said you took pleasure in yesterday.

It was quite a lovely afternoon, wasn’t it?

Shouldn’t have taken on all that debt, I suppose. Still, mugs will be mugs, what can one do?

“Shouldn’t have taken on all that debt, I suppose. Still, mugs will be mugs, what can one do?”

Desperate people make mistakes. What they have been doing is not working, so they try something else.

Often that something else solves a short term problem. If they can’t get past the short term problem, the long term ones are irrelevant. Once the short term problem is resolved, the short term thinking has created another short term problem. A vicious, downward spiral.

These short term problems can be avoided by those with enough resources. How much is enough? If you lost your job tomorrow, how long would it be before you ran out of resources? If your child or sibling or parent ran into trouble, would you help them out? Would you still help them if it jeopardized your future? How about if it joepardized your present?

Most of the mugs you disparage would answer yes to the last 3 questions.

“Of course you are. It’s almost as good as a husband dying at 46, his sick wife losing her house and their 6 year old daughter losing her daddy. All of which you said you took pleasure in yesterday.”

That’s rich coming from a secular government worshiping communist.

That’s rich coming from a secular government worshiping communist.

LOL

Of course you are. It’s almost as good as a husband dying at 46, his sick wife losing her house and their 6 year old daughter losing her daddy. All of which you said you took pleasure in yesterday.

Rio, FPSS never said he enjoyed the death, loss of parent, etc part of the story.

But he did seem deeply entertained by the “couple of loans” comment, and the general sense of entitlement.

If she owed so much less than her house was worth, surely she could get another loan elsewhere and pay off the existing $89K debt, right? Or maybe she hasn’t been paying in years and her credit-report reflects that.

Rio, FPSS never said he enjoyed the death, loss of parent, etc part of the story….But he did seem deeply entertained by the “couple of loans” comment,

FPSS’s enjoying the “couple of loans” part while being able to entirely disregard the “the death, loss of parent, etc part of the story” is entirely my point. It’s sick.

I don’t. I was kidding about dictatorships. Although what Palmetto says has merit in terms of efficiency.

I agree with Winston Churchill, who said something like “Democracy is the worst form of government ever devised….except for all the others.”

How is a benevolent dictatorship efficient?

Further, I wonder if Palmy says the same now as his father did then.

“How is a benevolent dictatorship efficient?”

That’s pure BS; safely ignored.

If you want to know the reasons, read some Hayek or Coase…

Churchill also said “The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter.”

IAT

We lament low information voters. But if you have 3 jobs, there is not much time left to study the issues.

Why study? If you had two jobs at the last election, and now you have three, maybe you can vote differently this time. Or, do you really want to have a fourth job in a few years?

IAT

Strange you should say that…the same model two houses away just sold for $230,000 in April.

So why not sell yours?

I’m never seen a hedge fund manager in NYC brag about his moolah. It’s just assumed. Matter of fact. No big deal.

Why not STFU and buy that Learjet with all your housing bags of cash?

FPSS, I feel compelled to answer when some idiot says if “……you bought a house in 1998, you lost money…a LOT of money…”. The statement is untrue.

I told you why I am not selling. I have no interest in selling, I am holding onto the house as part of my retirement plan……when I retire, not if.

I do think my retirment will be different than many peoples, as I will still be actively managing houses and doing more community volunteer work than I do today.

I do think my retirment will be different than many peoples

I think your retirement will DEFINITELY be diferent than “many peoples” (sic).

For starters, it will will involve Alpo.

Also, schadenfreude but you won’t be able to see that part.

I think your retirement will DEFINITELY be diferent than “many peoples” (sic)…For starters, it will will involve Alpo.

You have no credibility with me and I’m sure you don’t have any credibility with many here but when you write the above I’m sure you lose it with even more.

If Jingle has the cash flow he describes, his retirement will involve no “alpo”. Why would it? Because you say so with no logic behind it? Why would it involve alpo? Because you think no one will ever pay rent again? Because the world ends? Because you are a narcissist and everything you say is the rule?

“I am holding onto the house as part of my retirement plan……when I retire, not if.”

Since when were losses part of a retirement plan?

You know….. You motivation for lying here is clear so why lie?

The fact remains houses depreciate ALWAYS. You seem to backpedal from that reality.

Why is that?

Please. I just looked up what houses in our old nabe in Northern Virginia are selling for. We sold and left the area in 1993. Recent sales are for about double what we got when we sold. And those houses are 19 years older now than they were when we sold.

Stop the lies PW.

It’s glaringly obvious that any pimp who shows up on this blog touting their savvy real estate investments is full of sh!t.

It seems Bill is just uninformed…. not a pimp.

Houses depreciate ALWAYS like ALL man made items. And Bill… isn’t strange you selected a year right before the bubble began inflating.

“For starters, it will will involve Alpo.”

Ever see The Prince of Tides?

One funny scene has cranky dad complaining about something fancy on the dinner plate, so mom says Hang On, I’ll whip up something. One can of dog food coming up while the kids stare in wide-eyed disbelief. Dad (stoking away) says, now this is “real food!”

Ben, houses used to get paid off in 10 years or less.

When I was in graduate school, the chairman shamefully told me that he took out a 15-year loan, and then he whispered, “But we paid it off in 5.”

Debt was a curse. He was ashamed that a man in his position needed a loan in the first place.

BTW, that was quite recently, and this was in a major city not some podunk college-town.

‘But we paid it off in 5′

And there was no expectation the house could make one rich. Where were the cash out refi’s then? Heck, credit cards used to be rare. When I started to college, there would be booths with freshmen lined up to get credit cards.

My parents bought a house with a 15 year loan. They had seven kids. I wore hand-me-downs or garage sale clothes until my teens. And they paid the house off early. We had a mortgage burning party! Now many elderly people are up to their neck in debt. Young people are in debt. The cities, states and nation are deeply in debt. But, we’re told, interest rates are low; hurry, buy a house! Where’s the outrage?

“You know, houses used to get paid off in 15 years. Why doesn’t this interest the bleeding heart media?”

That is a lot more subtle, slow-paced, boring of a story than those of out-of-luck families getting kicked to the curb because they can’t manage to earn enough in a tough economy to make mortgage payments on the unaffordable loans they signed up for a few years back.

And what were mortgage durations in the old days?

7 years.

Still think housing at current inflated asking prices is a good idea??

Interestingly, it was the chairman’s same age demographic that encouraged insane credit policies and profitedly handsomely from such policies.

Yada yada.

Lots of people today could pay off their mortgages in 5-10 years if not for what their elders did. Real wages going down for 40 years while house prices quadrupling (or more) over the same time frame makes doing so difficult at best.

One day, I’m going to go on a mouthy diatribe concerning the immorality of hoarding money and bestowing it onto children 50 years later, all the while allowing said children to suffer economically, politically and professionally until the parents die. 50 years of lessening living standards and opportunity for children so that the parents can feel better on their deathbeds (via wills) is dispicable.

7 years was the “duration”. The amortization was still 30-years. The fact people sold or refinanced and re-paid the average loan in the 7th year has no bearing on this dicussion.

‘7 years’

And I bet there was still a substantial down payment %.

I don’t think people realize how big the housing bubble is or when it started. When I was old enough to start reading newspapers, there were little ads for mortgages for sale. I guess we would call them hard money lenders now, but there was actually a regular market for notes like this. No Fannie or Freddie, no HUD or taxpayer guarantee.

Here’s a bit of media/govt hypocrisy; we often see people go on about how securitization caused this and that. But how many actually call for an end to govt mortgage backed securities? Oh NO! We can’t have that; the housing market would crash!

Why is that? Houses aren’t a ‘good investment’ unless the govt backs the loans? Unless interest rates and down payments are miniscule?

I recently listened to NPR about car loans. Apparently there is a 7 year loan available and some 20 something guy with a so-so job wanted a new Mustang. I also had a discussion with a guy shopping for used trucks who saw a 4 year old Escalade that probably sold for north of 70K new. Asking; 15k.

What if HUD had a program to finance that Cadillac for 65k? Or 85k; Cadillacs never go down!

Point is, this housing bubble is built on debt. More and more of it and we’ve become accustomed to thinking houses should be ‘worth’ 100-200-500 thousand dollars. That mountains of debt are what you take on when you ‘grow up.’ And it’s all just a damned rigged system.

Note how the lengthening of loan durations played out gradually in post-WWII Japan, but hit a peak about the time of their bubble top (remember the 40-year mortgage loans the Japanese were taking out to “afford” homes circa 1989 — I do!).

Is this tendency to endogenously increase loan durations to a breaking point one facet of that Kondratiev wave theory FPSS likes to discuss?

Credit cycle theory

Excessive debt is known to ultimately have negative consequences for the economy, although monetary policy, such as low interest rates, is used to increase borrowing and stimulate growth. As discussed by Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), excessive debt, public and private, internal and external, has repeatedly led to financial crises in almost all countries throughout the last two centuries.[11] These crises typically end in default and restructuring, although sometimes the default is through currency debasement (inflation). The high levels of debt normally take years to work off, and create a prolonged slump as businesses and consumers rebuild their balance sheets.
…

remember the 40-year mortgage

There was a 100-year multi-generational mortgage. Did you forget that?

The Japanese definitely went the extra mile.

Exploiting the traditional conventions of Japanese culture.

We’re doing EXACTLY the same. There is such a thing as American culture and the debt-pushers are exploiting it to the hilt. What’s ironic is that Americans WANT to be in more debt. More student debt, more car debt, more housing debt, more credit cards, gimme Gimme GIMME!!!

It’s quite funny actually if you stand outside it all.

“No Fannie or Freddie, no HUD or taxpayer guarantee.”

I’m guessing the Fed didn’t pour billions of dollars into the mortgage lending channel back then, either?

Federal Reserve’s QE3 can only end badly
By David Moon
Posted September 23, 2012 at 4 a.m.

On Sept. 13 the Federal Reserve Board made headlines in practically every general publication and newspaper in the country when it announced that it would add $40 billion worth of monthly mortgage-backed securities purchases to its standing program of $45 billion in monthly long-term Treasury bond purchases.

This third round of quantitative easing (QE3) pushed the Dow Jones industrial average up 206 points for the day as the “risk on” trade was resumed.

The Federal Reserve Board is a powerful entity. Most of us have at least a vague understanding of what role the U.S. President, a bank teller or our spouse plays in our lives.

But do you have a clue about the Federal Reserve or the actual implications of QE3?

The Federal Reserve System is designed as an independent entity, comprised of a presidentially appointed board of seven governors, a 12 member Federal Open Market Committee and 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. Although no one actually owns the Federal Reserve, the regional Federal Reserve Banks issue stock to deposit institutions within their geographic regions and pay a 6 percent annual dividend on those investments.

The Federal Reserve typically creates money by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities in the open market. It pays for these securities with an electronic debit of cash it does not have. It literally creates the money by simply saying “here is some money.” Banks can then lend a multiple of the amount they receive from the Fed, potentially magnifying the effect.

The Fed’s bond purchases over the past several years go at least one step beyond the simple creation of money. An additional stated goal of Chairman Ben Bernanke has been to reduce interest rates in the Treasury and mortgage-backed bond markets.

How active has the Federal Reserve been at purchasing bonds with newly created money?

In 2008, the Federal Reserve purchased almost none of the newly issued Treasury bonds. Since then, its balance sheet has ballooned by almost $2 trillion.

A recent UBS analyst report says that the Fed owns all but $650 billion of all U.S. treasuries with maturities of 10 years or more, or 43.5 percent of the total outstanding. At a net monthly Treasury issuance of $89 billion (the average for the past six months) the Fed purchases about half of all newly issued Treasuries, and almost all of the long maturities.

This is in addition to the Fed’s new plan of $40 billion in monthly mortgage-backed securities purchases — an amount likely equal to 28 to 40 percent of all new issues.

That’s why the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is less than the practical rate of inflation.

Now that the Fed is moving into the mortgage market, $40 billion in monthly mortgage-backed securities purchases will soon make it the largest single owner of U.S. home mortgage collateral.
…

“Did you forget that?”

I couldn’t recall off the top of my head whether they stopped at 100 years, or went the full distance to intergenerational perpetuity?

Well whad’ya know?

Intergenerational Mortgages
September 21, 2010

Intergenerational Mortgages are based upon the idea that a homeowner can pass on the mortgage debt and interest repayments, along with the house, to their children when they die.

No such mortgages exist in Canada, due mostly because such mortgages are interest-only, and that’s practice currently banned for Canadian banks.

Intergenerational Mortgages, however, have made news in Vancouver last week, thanks to Patricia Croft, the retiring chief economist with RBC Global Asset Management, who spoke about the inflated Vancouver housing market to an audience of about 1,000 real estate executives this past week.

The gist of her comments was that prices and affordability had eroded so much in Vancouver that consumers might turn to intergenerational mortgages.

Reached by telephone the next day, she chuckled, agreeing she was being a little mischievous by throwing out the idea of a mortgage you pass on to the next generation.

“But how do people even afford to buy their homes?” asks Ms. Croft, noting that Royal Bank of Canada’s latest affordability index shows it takes 66% of pre-tax household income to carry a Vancouver bungalow. That’s 60% above the national average.

“They actually had intergenerational mortgages in Japan. When you passed on, you passed on the mortgage. If any city would qualify to market it, it would be Vancouver,” she says.

In other parts of the world, there has been little choice but to turn to longer amortization because it’s impossible for the average consumer to pay their home off in their lifetime.
…

there has been little choice but to turn to longer amortization because it’s impossible for the average consumer to pay their home off in their lifetime.

There has been little choice?

I love this stuff!

22-22 vision all the way.

Ummmm … I dunno. Perhaps, you could rent?

SHOCK AND AWE!!! Rockets burst through the sky.

What a concept, eh?

Intergenerational Mortgages are based upon the idea that a homeowner can pass on the mortgage debt and interest repayments, along with the house, to their children when they die.

AKA Indentured Servitude, a lifestyle of the Virginia Company of London that established the Jamestown Colony.

In other parts of the world, there has been little choice but to turn to longer amortization because it’s impossible for the average consumer to pay their home off in their lifetime.

Like I have said before, people around the globe have been indoctrinated into believing that housing is supposed to be unaffordable, and they will resort to ploys such as this one to finance houses. This is true in first world and third world countries.

I get cancer; don’t make a car payment. What happens? My spouse dies, I don’t make rent; what happens?

What happens? IDK. Do you mean what happens after the Pussy laughs at you?

I think Ben understands me better than some Yankee tariff-beneficiary.

I’m surprised you’ve recovered from your ruthless @ss-pounding from yesterday. I’d have expected you to be all puffy and swollen with substantial leakage (both blood and brown!)

Good try in “attempting” to shape the narrative. Kinda s_cks to be you, no?

Good try in “attempting” to shape the narrative. Kinda s_cks to be you, no?

I like it. If anyone’s interested in abnormal psychology in action, check out yesterday’s exchange between the Pussy and I and his response above.

Looks like I’ve got the Narcissist’s number.

nar·cis·sism (
1. Excessive love or admiration of oneself. See Synonyms at conceit.
2. A psychological condition characterized by self-preoccupation, lack of empathy, and unconscious deficits in self-esteem.

Eat my tariffs!

‘what happens after the Pussy laughs at you’

That’s bogus. Have we ever gone through the obituaries looking for laughs? Or car accident reports? This lady put a tarp on her roof asking the President to help her get out of paying what she owes! And she wants to keep the house too. It was her words that revealed she’s not even underwater. What exactly is her point? Or is she lying about the situation?

As I pointed out yesterday, she’s a former landlord. If I don’t pay my rent on the first, I’ll be out before she will. Did she let her tenants stay without paying? If not, what a cruel person she must be huh? Don’t all landlords forgive rents when something goes wrong?

Where is your outrage that she even has a mortgage at 46? Oh no, she’s a victim, so we all have to pay her bills. None of us renters get sick and die. People that pay their bills never get arthritis.

If she’s a victim, she’s a victim of life, like the rest of us. But that’s beside the point that she has a house worth 140k and owes 90k, and wants a handout.

That’s bogus. Have we ever gone through the obituaries looking for laughs? Or car accident reports?

It is not bogus. Yesterday that Pussy said he took great pleasure in a story where an arthritic 43 year old mom lost her husband (who had been injured at work) was losing her house and who’s daughter had just lost her father.

And Pussy took pleasure in the totality of the above story because the widow might have “took out a few” loans?

I’m not buying it. I think there is something Sociopathic about that Pussy.

“The amortization was still 30-years. ”

7 YEAR mortgage and typical was 5.

FYI, It’s not going to be very pleasurable for you here if you’re going to continue to lie to everyone.

“One day, I’m going to go on a mouthy diatribe concerning the immorality of hoarding money and bestowing it onto children 50 years later, all the while allowing said children to suffer economically, politically and professionally until the parents die. 50 years of lessening living standards and opportunity for children so that the parents can feel better on their deathbeds (via wills) is dispicable.”

Hoarding money. Weren’t they supposed to save for their retirement? How much will they need to not be a burden on their children? What will inflation do to their retirement savings? What if they need long term care in a nursing facility? (Don’t get me started on long-term care insurance - will the company be around when it is time to collect?)

Could it be that it is time to re-think that entire construct?

Further, who exactly decided that parents were a burden to their kids? The kids or the parents? For what reasons?

Wills ARE a dispicable construct. Why would any parent want to reduce the productivity and economic well being of their children? Why would any generation want to reduce the livelihood of future generations?

Sometimes I think elderly parents moving in with the kids is a vastly superior proposition (think The Waltons) than the reduced efficiencies, monetary cost and family ties that result from living apart.

Look what is happening to generational wealth in this country. Do you really think that parental independence in old age is worth reduced living standards for future generations?

Are you sure of that?

We did not do that which is why we have a great investment with outstanding cash flow. So the premise that “anyone who bought a house in 1998 is underwater”……. is still false.

Does the mortgage app say “owner occupied”?

It does. It was owner occupied with the mortgage was originated.

“Excessive debt is known to ultimately have negative consequences for the economy, although monetary policy, such as low interest rates, is used to increase borrowing and stimulate growth. As discussed by Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), excessive debt, public and private, internal and external, has repeatedly led to financial crises in almost all countries throughout the last two centuries.[11] These crises typically end in default and restructuring, although sometimes the default is through currency debasement (inflation). The high levels of debt normally take years to work off, and create a prolonged slump as businesses and consumers rebuild their balance sheets.”

I love “This time is different’ by Reinhart and Rogoff. It is one of the best reads ever - highly recommended.

I once saw a video of some conference and Larry Summers was there in the audience. And the speaker was going on about the Reinhart and Rogoff work and the debt cycle and the financial collapses caused by over-extending debt. And at the end of the speech they asked for audience comments and it was almost painful to watch Larry Summers get up and put on this totally contrived expression of astonishment and in a gasping voice tell the speaker that he had No idea! No idea! what they were talking about. He wasn’t sure what it was but it certainly wasn’t economics. It was bizarre! Simply bizarre! He kept on using the word “bizarre!” to discredit the speaker and to indicate how radical a notion this was and then went on to try to pick apart the speakers eduction because they clearly had no understanding of economics and were probably too dumb to comprehend it and used other personal attacks. And everyone in his crew bobbed their head in agreement. It was like psychological operations damage control - but done really poorly. I think Summers needs to take acting lessens.

“So the premise that “anyone who bought a house in 1998 is underwater”……. is still false.”

Fair enough, but I have a sneaking suspicion that 1 or 2 of the people who bought in the 90s refied and contributed to the….

“total loss since the market peaked in June 2006 to $9 trillion”

STANLEY!

lendingtree commercial - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn5EP9StlVA - 155k - Cached - Similar pages
Nov 4, 2006 … “I’m in debt up to my eyeballs”

December 9, 2010 6:03 AM

Home Value Loss Reaches $9 Trillion

ByIlyce Glink .Zillow Real Estate Market Reports says 2010 was worse than 2009 for the residential housing market.

In a report released today, the company says US homes are expected to lose an additional 63 percent more in value this year over 2009-to the tune of $1.7 trillion.

This brings the total loss since the market peaked in June 2006 to $9 trillion

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505145_162-37143424/home-value-loss-reaches-9-trillion/ -

“anyone who bought a house in 1998 is underwater”

Is absolutely true.

How can a house I bought for cash be under water?

Are you referring to the 8″ of rain we got last week?

When you have a garden water is a good thing.

How can a depreciating asset not be underwater?

“How can a depreciating asset not be underwater?”

They’re all underwater, so it’s relative. He sells his place at market value, and buys a similar home (in a non-bubble area) for roughly the same price.

We are in a deflationary environment, and the only folks who will really suffer are those still making payments or their lenders; renters and owners will survive.

@SF Bay Area: If people can’t get through the density of “This Time Is Different”, they should try Mauldin’s “Endgame”, which relies frequently on the information from Reinhart and Rogoff.

“And a liar is never truthful.”

I would say that an honest person never lies. What do you call people who sometimes lie and sometimes tell the truth?

Tainted.

I find his shock and truth post to be refreshing.

Shock? How can you be “shocked” by the exact same thing time and time again?

As for truth? A few here can’t handle the truth imo.

Shock? How can you be “shocked” by the exact same thing time and time again?

Yet the incessant and repeated lies are acceptable to you.

Hmmm…. Why is that?

Sorry, but labeling someone a liar just because they disagree with you is not refreshing. It’s juvenile grade school bully behavior. And it’s getting really tiresome just how low the level of discourse has become on this blog.

I’ve meet a lot of posters and even if we disagreed about causes or consequences of the bubble we could still talk over a beer without it becoming a shouting match or degrading into name-calling.

Being anonymous I guess means being uncivil can go to extremes. Which is too bad, because I think it devalues a lot of intelligent commentary.

Sorry but telling lies make you a liar whether you disagree with it or not.

It’s just a flesh wound.

Schadenfreude is pretty hilarious too, actually!

Enjoy the stone mills around your neck. Try not to “pass away” like that dude from yesterday’s thread.

Your wife might just turn into an Angela. H_ndjobs by the highway for a dollar “hoping” that it can turn into a warm meal.

Worst case scenario: he strategically defaults and files for BK. That will hardly force his wife into prostitution.

But if we are unfortunate enough to go Wiemar or Zimbabwe, he’ll end up looking like a genius.

That said, I would never want to be a landlord, not even with 6% returns.

Only first-homes are no-recourse in CA. The rest you get to pay back every bleedin’ dollar.

As for the theoretical Weimar, who benefits and who loses?

The rich would lose and the riff-raff would win.

LOLsies!!!

Good luck with that “wishful thinking”.

As if.

I’d advise him to buy kneepads for the wife. She has a longer life expectancy and will be needing it.

H_ndjobs by the highway for a dollar “hoping” that it can turn into a warm meal.

Yawn…..You’re not very shocking or clever - just noticeably disturbed and I’m sure many here don’t share in your sexual fantasies or even want to hear about your sex life.

The rest you get to pay back every bleedin’ dollar.

I did mention a BK. But as Rio mentioned above, you seem to have a disturbing obsession with sodomy.

“Only first-homes are no-recourse in CA. The rest you get to pay back every bleedin’ dollar.”

Um, this isn’t how it works.

While there are restrictions on recourse for money purchase loans (not first-homes, just the first loan on each home–ie. these loans MUST be non-recourse), whether a refinance loan is recourse depends entirely on the loan documents. It doesn’t have to be recourse.

Might as well do that, rather than have Mexico extend its border up to Salt Lake and Redding.

FWIW, those areas were at one time Mexican territory, that is, until we stole them from Mexico.

Perhaps we stole them from Spain, who stole them from the Mexicans?

Nope, it was our victory in the Mexican American War that won us all those territories. And if you might feel inclined to suggest that Mexico stole it from the Indians, need I remind you that most Mexicans are Indians?

OK, I see that Mexico had already revolted from Spanish rule by then.

In case it is not obvious to readers who never studied demography, a birthrate of 1.87 is well below the replacement rate of 2.1 or so (the 2 is needed for replacement of a couple, and the added 0.1 covers early mortality).

Look up “population momentum”. Even with replacement birthrate, and no immigration, a country’s population can grow.

What I find notable in recent weeks is that Family Dollar is going to be opening stores in Silicon Valley.

They must believe there’s market need.

we’ll be headed for a big war

There aren’t enemies out there to give US a big war. Iran doesn’t count. US and Arab allies will overpower Iran in matter of couple of months and then we enter into this protracted civil war. I just don’t think there’s an appetite for more protracted wars in this country. The elites would like a big, bad cold war. Who would it be? I am sure China doesn’t want that - China would rather build crappy stuff than fight wars.

Can you provide more info? This is fascinating.

I can have my sister investigate further.

Everyone likes a bargain.

‘US and Arab allies will overpower Iran in matter of couple of months and then we enter into this protracted civil war.’

Only if the crazies prevail:

‘Retired Gen. Anthony Zinni from a speech at the New America Foundation in September 2009. Zinni said that he liked to respond to advocates of strikes on Iran with “And then what?”

‘After you’ve dropped those bombs on those hardened facilities, what happens next? What happens if they decide, in their hardened shelters with their mobile missiles, to start launching those? What happens if they launch them into U.S. bases on the other side of the Gulf? What happens if they launch into Israel, or somewhere else? Into a Saudi oil field? Into Ras Laffan, with all the natural gas? What happens if they now flush their fast patrol boats, their cruise missiles, the strait full of mines, and they sink a tanker, an oil tanker? And of course the economy of the world goes absolutely nuts. What happens if they activate sleeper cells? The MOIS, the intelligence service; what happens if there’s another preemptive attack by the West, the U.S. and Israel, they fire up the streets, and now we’ve got problems. Just tell me how to deal with all that, OK?’

‘Because, eventually, if you follow this all the way down, eventually I’m putting boots on the ground somewhere,” Zinni concluded. “And as I tell my friends, if you liked Iraq and Afghanistan, you’ll love Iran.’

http://www.salon.com/2012/02/10/the_neocons_big_iran_lie/

“Can you provide more info?”

Kondratieff studied about 400 years of British economic records (because they kept such interesting records). He found a patttern of agricultural boom and bust, economic boom and bust, war and innovation leading to the next economic boom.

I did a short google search and do not find an image that is quite like the one in my old book. They all are attempts to paste such a cycle on recent US history, which doesn’t work so well. Still, famine, bust and war would be in the cards for us according the the theory, extend and pretend not withstanding.

There aren’t enemies out there to give US a big war.

Sure there are, if we go to them.

I did a short google search and do not find an image that is quite like the one in my old book.

I know this stuff cold! I’m the one bringing it up. LOL

I was talking to the Family Dollar in Silicon Valley being “fascinating”. Now there’s a new development.

There aren’t enemies out there to give US a big war.

I’m sure we could seek them out, sell them yesterday’s arms using creative financing, crush them in the name of Christianity, entice ADM corporation to start extracting their mineral wealth with tax breaks, and…well you get the idea.

I was talking to the Family Dollar in Silicon Valley being “fascinating”.

There is a stereotype that only “po’ folks” shop at Dollar Stores. My wife bought a plastic colander at one just the other day, for $1. She say’s it’s flimsier than the $3 plastic colanders they sell at Target and WalMart, but it’ll do the trick.

She doesn’t shop there a lot, but there are things that are better deals at the dollar stores (and many that are not).

I was talking to the Family Dollar in Silicon Valley being “fascinating”

The only type person finding “fascinating” a Dollar store is opening in Silicon Valley has to be ignorant of Silicon Valley, large population centers in general and the makeup of the entire country in which he lives.

There ain’t no tariffs in Silicon Valley, darling!

None that you can exploit anyway. You’re not “hooked in” over there.

There ain’t no tariffs in Silicon Valley, darling!

Now how is that a logical comeback from me pointing out your ignorance of the makeup of your own country? That you are surprised that there are Dollar stores in Silicon Valley.

And it points out yet another example of your ignorance. Of course there are “tariffs in Silicon Valley”. The USA has tariffs and Silicon Valley is part of the USA. So what is your point?

And I’m pondering what type of income could a newly arrived gringo have in Brazil that would depend on Brazilian import tariffs. A retail store? No, because many stores make money here selling imports. A restaurant, cleaning service, tourist service, pool cleaning, pool hall, drugs, prostitution, construction, law enforcement, law, medical, oil, mining what?

The only thing I can think of is if a gringo owned or worked for a Brazilian factory which I don’t and would not really want to. So even mathematically, the chances that a newly arrived gringo in Brazil derives his income because of Brazilian import tariffs are slim to none.

That thing about the bug up your @$$…you’ll lead a happier life if you expell those things before you go to sleep at night.

That thing about the bug up your @$$…you’ll lead a happier life if you expell those things before you go to sleep at night.

I lead a happier life because I see my post’s are obviously able to put a bug up yours. (and the PussyCat’s)

Not that, it’s you whining about yesterday’s insults that is most tedious.

Not that, it’s you whining about yesterday’s insults that is most tedious.

Too bad. You’re the one who’s whining but I often have that affect on you.

I get it that English is not your first language, and civil conversation not your strong suit. Oh, and your Mama.

I get it that English is not your first language, and civil conversation not your strong suit. Oh, and your Mama.

You have to be joking Blue Sky. Civil conversation? I’m dealing with a narcissist-sociopath in Faster Pussy who’s happy about a story of a 6 year old losing her father, who continually wishes ladies are forced into prostitution and other obscene acts and now you, his new sycophant who comes out of his hole (or row boat) to insult me with juvinile profanity ONLY because you don’t like my politics.

If you liked my politics, you’d be calling me a hero for taking on such a waste of space as Pussycat. But I’ve smacked you down so hard before on your right-wing jive that you just look for any chance to get in your feeble digs. I know your game Mr. Banker’s buddy. I look forward to more “civil conversation” with you and the Pussy.

Blue Sky: “That thing about the bug up your @$$…”

Blue Sky: “civil conversation not your strong suit….your Mama.”

“Civil conversation”…….Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Blue Sky…the definition and a classic example of a hypocrite.

We do agree about some things, without needing to admire each other. It has been so since long before you popped up here with your google searches and Brazilian flavor of denial, which cannot be scratched by the subtle or the ridiculous. Being told you are wrong is the injury, the insults are just garnishments.

. It has been so since long before you popped up here with your google searches and Brazilian flavor of denial, which cannot be scratched by the subtle or the ridiculous.

Well then you’re ignorant to what I really am doing. My “Brazilian flavor of denial” IS the “subtle and the ridiculous”. It is mostly a parody of it being different here (which it IS) and at the same time hinting that sometimes being different can lead to the same results as not being different.

I’ve said many times that Brazil could be in a bubble but if there is a bubble, it is different. One example: mortgage debt in Brazil = 5% of Brazil GDP whereas it is 70% in the USA. That is very different.

Being told you are wrong is the injury,

But I am not wrong. I’m not wrong about my “Brazilian flavor of denial” and I was not wrong yesterday about me not making my income from high Brazilian import duties. The “injury” (but it does not hurt really) is having a blowhard, narcissistic-sociopath (Pussy) tell me how I derive my income. I also think he is a pathetic human being. (Other than that, he ROCKS!)

Like Picasso. He was thought to be psychotic until after he was dead, then his work was worshiped. Actually, he was psychotic, not misunderstood at all!

Picasso and Stravinsky are the two greatest artists of the 20th century.

In fact, their artistic lives show an almost unbelievable parallelism given that they worked in two entirely different media.

In terms of who they influenced, they rank all the way up there with Shakespeare, Wagner and Joyce!

PS :- I’m aware of Matisse and yes, he’s in there with Picasso too.

“In fact, their artistic lives show an almost unbelievable parallelism given that they worked in two entirely different media.”

They both figured out how to stay productive well past the point where most people have gone to seed, and managed to achieve widespread recognition in their own lifetimes — hardly the qualities of a psychotic.

I absolutely adore the late-Stravinsky “Movements for Piano & Orchestra”.

Almost nobody does (minus the dead composer and Robert Craft, I suppose.)

However, I adore it beyond all reason.

Another beautiful aspect of both Picasso’s and Stravinsky’s artistic careers were the many different style periods both demonstrated over their lifetimes of work.

They are quite parallel.

Cubist/Rhythmic-fracture followed by a conservative retreat into “Neo-Classicism” followed by a late renaissance into following the logical end-result of their breakthroughs (by aping their younger colleagues who were inspired by them.)

‘As soon as they’re willing to trade it back to us for something we make I’m sure we’ll be happy to make it for them’

Palo Alto tear downs and Vancouver condos?

“tear downs / condos”

Exactly — all we ever hear about are all-cash Chinese investors snapping up U.S. residential properties.

Where did they get all those U.S. dollars to fund the all-cash investors in our residential real estate market?

TAIWAN…..bring the lost island back into the fold….or else.

The question is…what do they WANT for it?

Got Chinese cows?

Sept. 23, 2012, 7:30 p.m. EDT
China wealth fund targets Australia dairy farms
By MarketWatch

SYDNEY–China Investment Corp. is seeking to invest in the Australian dairy industry and sent four executives to Tasmania earlier this month to look at opportunities, the Australian Financial Review reported Monday.

The newspaper said CIC’s executives visited two large dairy farms in the state, with a combined value of more than 200 million Australian dollars (US$208 million). Gao Xiqing, president of CIC afterwards met with the Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings, the newspaper said, without saying where it got the information.

In a speech delivered in Shanghai, the Tasmanian Premier said she would welcome investment from China.
…

There wouldn’t be blame unless there was pain.

And it’s gonna get a lot worse. Did we scapegoat anybody in the 30s?

Luckily in my ‘hood the vacant houses serve as extra parking.

And regarding the issue of telling a Jew to move from Israel because of a terrorist attack or a sister to change professions due to sexual harrassment a similar response applies, which is:

If you cannot stand a situation that you cannot alter then the best thing you can do is get away from the situation.

If a Jew cannot stand living under the threat of a terrorist attack then he should move. If a sister cannot rectify a sexual harrassment situation at work then she should leave.

Don’t worry Diogenes. If I wrote this, the Effers here (they know who they are) would raise the race card. They won’t bother you.

‘fallen silent’

They are on the east coast and you’re on the west coast.

Their time zone never seemed to stop them before.

IAT

Actually, I drop off line many times during the day and seldom get back on this blog after 5 pm. However, i was curious if there was any discussion on the topic since I left earlier today.
Your rants prove nothing. I rail against the FIRE sector all the time. I don’t care who the crooks are, I would like them prosecuted, and as I have said, many times would like to see Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, Lloyd Blankfein and all the crooks on Wallstreet in Jail.
The so-called white-collar criminals are indeed crooks and should be prosecuted.
HOWEVER, I NEVER, ie..NEVER have any fear that these people will break into my home at gunpoint, hold me up, threaten my life of my neighbors life, destroy personal property, spray graffiti all over public and private property, steal cars, break into houses, burn property or any of a list of hundreds of crimes that I have witnessed by low-life criminals that have infested formerly quiet, peaceful and CRIME_FREE neighborhoods.

All of this is the result of “integration”, nothing more. The perpetrators are 80% black, or latino. They run in Gangs, much more than whites and are a constant source of social destruction.
So, take your “these are the REAL CRIMINALs” rant somewhere else. I don’t need to LOCK MY DOOR because Ben Bernanke is stealing from me. He won’t kick my door and threaten my life for a big screen TV.
I grew up in a POOR white neighborhood. WE didn’t use “poverty” as an excuse for criminal behaviour. We just did the best we could. And we left our doors unlocked, and our keys in the car, with the car running when we went to the convenience store.
WE NEVER worried about crime. All that changed when the neighborhood complexion started changing with Government mandated ‘inclusion’.
So, drop dead. Gansta’s are Criminals, not
Amerika’s Y0uth”.

Itsabouttime 17:22:51 : “Six hours later, some 90 comments later, and the racists have fallen silent.”

Diogenes (Tampa, Fl) 19:45:33 : “Actually, I drop off line many times during the day and seldom get back on this blog after 5 pm”

LOL. That exchange says it all.

I guess Diogenes isn’t as well-versed as we all thought, because s/he apparently has never heard of any of the following:

National Crime Syndicate
Seven Group
Murder, Inc.
Polish Mob
Saltis-McErlane Gang
Kielbasa Posse
The Greenpoint Crew
Flats Mob
The Flathead gang
Prohibition-era gangs
Shelton Brothers Gang
Sheldon Gang
Broadway Mob
Circus Cafe Gang
Dixie mafia
Cornbread mafia
Greek-American organized crime
Philadelphia Greek Mob
Velentzas Family
Assyrian/Chaldean mafia
Hawaiian mafia

Only an idiot would claim that only blacks and Latino/as commit murders. Given that the evidence contradicts Diogenes’ claim that one only need worry about blacks and Latino/as, one is left with only one conclusion — Diogenes is racist scum.

IAT

‘only one conclusion…racist scum’

As he’s mentioned, I delete a lot of his posts. I can delete yours too.

I guess I believe in the first amendment, and its basis in the idea that the antidote to error is truth, not suppression. If Diogenes is going to be allowed to write “All of this is the result of “integration”, nothing more. The perpetrators are 80% black, or latino. They run in Gangs, much more than whites and are a constant source of social destruction,” then the first amendment antidote is to point out the long list of organized crime groups that have murdered people left right and center, and to draw the obvious conclusion. If that conclusion means I get censored, well, I guess the blog has changed so much that it is no longer a blog for me, nor for the many people I routinely send here for insight.

I never asked that Diogenes or anyone else be censored, only to let free speech reign. Censoring me is certainly your right. I think I add value. If you disagree, that’s your right. I don’t need to add my value here.

IAT

Great. The racist stays and the antidote leaves? Don’t.

Face to face this is often true. But much of the violence behind the violence is perpetrated hundreds or thousands of miles away. For example, when a takeover artist employs dozens of traders to find, buy, liquidate, and close operating concerns, well, they victimize people of all races, including their own.

Somehow, the racists rant in one breath against black and Latino/a street thugs, and in the other against Wall Street thugs. Funny, they never mention the race of the Wall Street thugs. If race is relevant on the street, it is relevant on the Street.

As for me, I think it irrelevant everywhere — if I am being victimized, it doesn’t make me feel better or worse if the person doing the victimizing is my race or another race. Perhaps the racists feel differently.

IAT

Foaming the Runway Saves German Airliner: Dumb Americans Take Note!

“And it appears that QE3 is going to be the decisive event that will get Obama re-elected.”

Curious whether Glenn Hubbard pointed this out to R&R?