October 8, 2012

Bits Bucket for October 8, 2012

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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328 Comments »

Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 04:36:36

Whatever you do, DO NOT buy housing now.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 07:21:51

Why not? Did you miss the memo that a housing bottom is in place?

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 07:25:34

Published: Sept. 25, 2012 Updated: 11:59 a.m.
S&P: 1st gain for L.A.-O.C. home prices since ‘10
By JONATHAN LANSNER / THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

If you needed extra proof that local home prices are firming, the much-discussed S&P/Case-Shiller index for Los Angeles and Orange counties for July was up 0.4 percent from a year ago — the first such gain since November 2010.

The reversal that S&P noted Tuesday has been brewing since spring. On a month-to-month basis, Los Angeles and Orange counties prices were up 1.3 percent from June — the fifth consecutive gain.

 
Comment by sfbubblebuyer
2012-10-08 14:11:53

I’ve already got my head stuck up the housing bottom! AIYIYI!

 
 
Comment by BetterRenter
2012-10-08 15:14:15

Pimp Watch said: “Whatever you do, DO NOT buy housing now.”

Well, I can’t agree with that. Buying housing was always a matter of running the numbers. So run the numbers and make your decision.

I bought in late 2008 since the numbers said I should. Prices around here crashed steeply for certain properties. And it wasn’t just a few of them. It wasn’t just luck; I had my pick of properties whose buildings were selling for below $20/sf. If I had waited, then the tsunami of investors would have swarmed in like locusts and locked me out. I literally bought at the exact right time…. whereas according to the HBB, it was a very foolish time to buy.

But I harbor no hatred in my heart for those bloggy advisors. After all, I have a fully functional 5-1/2 pounds of brain. I listened, I learned, I applied what I learned… and starting 2009 I didn’t have to make a mortgage or rent payment ever again. That’s 40 years of a big worry off my head. I’m surrounded by middle class (who often hold me in contempt) who will NEVER own their own homes. They will tend to come to a bad end that I will tend to avoid.

I’m trying to get a friend of mine to stop his stupid little plan of plowing all his spare cash into his re-set mortgage, to pay off his house. That’s $70K. It’ll take 5 years to do it. He can get another house pretty much just like it for $30K. All he has to do is walk away from this one. He’s already retired and his 5-yr plan is guaranteed to run into a major medical snag on his part or his wife (both are heavily medicated due to various ailments). And his excuse? The 1099 thing, for forgiven debt. God, it’s like all I do is TALK TO THE WALL when I discuss housing with people.

Comment by Robin
2012-10-08 16:46:26

Often times plausible deniability coincides with profit-driven over-prescription of prescription drugs from GPs and Specialists.

Been on 3 prescribed drugs that eventually can kill me. Stopped taking them and going to the prescribing doctors. Took some for 10-15 years.

Didn’t know Lipitor accelerates the onset of Type2 Diabetes, Actos can cause bladder cancer, or Avandia can cause my heart to fail.

We reached our sixties, but we may already have been screwed by doctors too ready to get free golf on Maui.

Took my wife off of statins. Still love her.

Hate the pharma opportunists.

Good luck to new buyers; timing and location are the focus!

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 17:12:44

Thanks for the effort BR.

Interesting you struck in late 2008 when condition were right. There was a window of time in the fall of 2008 to spring 2009 where I saw tons of favorable REO hit the market in a few areas I know well. I’m talking $35/sqft for very nice digs. I’m still glad I didn’t strike back then but you likely made the right decision at prices under 40/sq. If you’re paying more than that, you better really understand what you’re getting into because getting out is going to be painful as we enter the coming years and decades.

 
Comment by rms
2012-10-08 18:17:49

He’s already retired and his 5-yr plan is guaranteed to run into a major medical snag on his part or his wife (both are heavily medicated due to various ailments).

Retired and still owes $70k on a mortgage? Wow!

 
 
 
Comment by Martin
2012-10-08 05:32:06

This is for FPSS about PhD salaries in Business fields.
Yes, they get paid very high nine month salaries and many start at around 220-250K for nine months today. Here are some links:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204224604577032232809553166.html (See page 37 of this slink)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204224604577032232809553166.html

https://www.quantnet.com/threads/phd-is-a-waste-of-time.5198/
(Read the blog for Business School salaries for fresh PhD in 2010 and it has gone up a lot since then)

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2012-10-08 06:07:23

Several years ago I asked a (then) recently retired college professor (not a PhD.) about why college costs were going up faster than inflation. He said a good part of it was the upgrading of residences and other facilities to near country club status, but the rest was for the rapidly increasing salaries of the top professors. He said colleges were engaged in an “arms race” to recruit and retain the “top” people.

Comment by Overtaxed
2012-10-08 06:50:52

” He said colleges were engaged in an “arms race” to recruit and retain the “top” people.”

Which, frankly, with the possible exception of PhD candidates, has almost no relevance to the students at all. Do you need a “top” physics researcher to teach Physics 101? Of course not, you don’t need a researcher at all, you need a teacher who understands the concepts and can relate it to the students. Until you get to the PhD level, there’s very little “look at my research” and dramatically more “these are the basics of the field of study”. The emphasis on research does almost nothing for BA/BS/MA candidates.

 
Comment by Martin
2012-10-08 06:52:18

My advisor offered me admission to the PhD program in Engineering in 1995 after my Masters and I didn’t take it as I wanted to be in the workforce. I had bills to pay and MS jobs used to pay lot more than PhD salaries back then. Same was with MBA.

Nowdays, MBAs start around 90-100K from decent schools and PhDs start around 220-250K for 9 month and then they make another 150K in summer salary and consulting. Tuition has gone up drastically to feed these monsters.

I think a void was created by advent of these part-time, weekend, executive etc. MBA courses, which created a huge demand for PhDs in business. I get very surprised to see their salaries more thann real doctors who save lives. A MD doctor in DC area makes close to 140-150K with so much hard work the doctor has put in getting the degree and residency. Whereas some idiot PhD is making 220K for creating scams.

Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-10-08 07:10:06

A MD doctor in DC area makes close to 140-150K

Wha-a-t? Maybe starting salary for a GP. Most MDs in practice for a while make at least twice that (unless DC is an area of particularly low MD salaries, which I tend to doubt.)

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Comment by Martin
2012-10-08 08:32:49

Alpha:

MD is Doctor of Medicine and GP is also MD. I’m not talking about specialists. A person can do MD in Internal Medicine, Family Practice etc.

Most salaried jobs are around 14-150K, that too at top end in DC area. Now one can do a business and sky is the limit by charging people for procedures that are not even needed to make money from insurance companies. As soon as it becomes a business, ethics fly out of the door.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-10-08 08:53:14

I know what a GP is, it’s generally now called Family Practice, or some such.

BTW- You should mention that you are only referencing ‘GPs’ when talking about MD salaries- they make a good bit less than almost all other MDs.

Anyway, ‘GPs’ in DC must make less than the natl average:

The median expected salary for a typical Physician - Family Practice in the United States is $176,036.
Salarydotcom

 
Comment by Salinasron
2012-10-08 08:54:56

I’ve known a lot of Dr.s and most are lucky to get up to $150K. Pathologists and radiologists go $200 -$300K as they own the labs.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-10-08 09:15:49

This site says a radiologist with 6 years experience averages around $450,000 nationwide.

http://www.profilesdatabase.com/resources/2011-2012-physician-salary-survey

 
Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 10:08:10

radiologist with 6 years experience averages around $450,000 nationwide ??

How much does a radioligists make in Malasia ??

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-10-08 22:16:27

Exactly, scdave.

 
 
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-10-08 07:28:58

I’ve never investigated teaching in public universities, but I have taught for certain “for profit” private schools. Even full time I wouldn’t get to 90K with an MBA.

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Comment by Ross Peroxide
2012-10-08 07:55:44

Neither do the most phd’s. I think he’s talking about top 25 schools and certain fields.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 08:21:51

FWIW, I have read the B-School profs tend to be the best paid ones these days.

Gotta compete for the “talent”, you know.

 
Comment by Martin
2012-10-08 08:35:57

I’m not talking top 25 schools. Probably top 100 schools which would include basically tier2 universities also.

Where do you consider UMD business school, Johns Hopkins Buz schools? They are probably around rank 50-60. Go there with a PhD in FInance and they will start you with 220K easy.

Btw, Harvard and other top schools don’t pay that well as they know PhDs line up to get a job there due to their brand.

 
Comment by Bad Andy
2012-10-08 12:13:58

IF I could get a full time schedule AND I wanted to do that with my life, I’d be at probably about $55K with an MBA. I don’t even look at PhD or DBA rates of pay as I’m on indefinite hiatus for getting my DBA.

 
Comment by polly
2012-10-08 13:26:49

All schools pay less to part time teachers than they would to tenure track full time profs. Part time people are there to get a resume boost or to satisfy some urge to teach and are used by the school to fill the classes their full time faculty would rather not deal with. Full time people have to live on their salaries (plus part time consulting) and their research/publishing/awards/reputation is what improves the prestige of the school - of course they get paid more.

 
Comment by Josh
2012-10-08 20:18:18

The competition for tenure track university positions is ferocious these days. Probably more difficult to get one of these
jobs than any other in the US.

And the pay is not outstanding. Much, much less than $225k. The average salary for a full professor at a state university (that I am totally familiar with) is well under $100k.

 
 
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
2012-10-08 13:21:37

University salaries, just like housing could not have risen above general salaries without the help of the “government”.
STUDENT LOANS is the culprit.
If the University could not charge more tuition because people simply could not afford it, then RAISES would terminate. Period.
The availability of loans, and the mythology that you can’t succeed without a degree from a top ranked school is what has caused this disproportionate wage jump.
Stupidly enough, the Bumbling idiot in the White House wants MORE support of “education” in the form of MORE government loans, because EVERYBODY needs to go to college.
What insanity.

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Comment by Overtaxed
2012-10-08 17:02:55

Yup, couldn’t have said it better myself. Subsidize and make loans available for everyone with a pulse for “product X” and watch the price soar. Pretty simple, and yet, seems totally foreign to most of this country.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 05:33:29

Can you imagine the public outcry if a private bank or insurance company mistakenly paid out $1 Billion to the wrong customers? It would be deafening.

Audit: HUD Paid More than $1 Billion in Bogus Pre-foreclosure Claims

Friday, 21 Sep 2012 11:02 AM
By Michael Kling

The government’s Pre-foreclosure Sale Program was supposed to save struggling homeowners from foreclosure, but the government might have paid more than $1 billion to homeowners who didn’t qualify for it.

Out of 80 randomly selected claims audited by the Office of the Inspector General of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), 61 did not meet the program’s criteria.

The audit showed that HUD paid $1.06 billion in claims for 11,693 pre-foreclosure sales that did not meet requirements of the Federal Housing Authority (FHA), which runs the program.

It’s hard to say how much the FHA actually lost, the inspector general said. The $1.06 billion amount is not a direct loss for the FHA, since some of those loans might have gone into foreclosure anyway.

Comment by Bad Andy
2012-10-08 07:33:26

Government, which includes these government entities, is generally incompetent. Thank you for helping to prove my point.

Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-10-08 09:03:21

As are most corporations.

Comment by Hi-Z
2012-10-08 09:39:41

A corporation that is “generally incompetent” does not stay around very long.

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Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 10:04:24

Say what? Did you miss the whole Wall St. bailout thing?

 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2012-10-08 11:00:20

To say nothing of IBM, HP, Chevrolet, Chrysler, most cable companies….

 
Comment by Hi-Z
2012-10-08 12:13:50

You are countering my argument with more examples of government incompetence.

 
Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 13:27:22

You made no conditions. Whatever the mechanism, many generally incompetent companies DO stay around.

 
Comment by Galyen
2012-10-08 20:04:53

… Particularly so called U.S. Federal Reserve who is owned by few very rich and powerful families…

 
 
 
 
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
2012-10-08 13:26:19

You really don’t understand, do you?
These people weren’t qualified, but they WERE the right people.
I’d like to see a racial profile of the fraud.
Did you see the story about the $800,000 theft by a single TSA Agent, I believe from Detroit?
Yes, you give unqualified people, who should really be in jail, a badge and an x-ray machine and have them screen you luggage. What happens? Well, gee, the valuables end up missing. Lost in transit.
There is FRAUD and Theft everywhere the government gets involved and ALL the leftists want to expand government so more stealing can go around and we can re-distribute the wealth from the working classes and so-called middle classes to special privileged groups of con-men.

Comment by rms
2012-10-08 18:22:26

“These people weren’t qualified, but they WERE the right people.”

Diogenes, you gotta move up north before this chit kills ‘ya.

 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 05:40:55

It’s kind of funny to read Mark Zandi’s conversation with himself about the merits of Obama’s housing bailout, in light of the topic’s omission from last week’s debate. It should have been included, but wasn’t.

Mark Zandi: When housing was in a free fall, Obama caught it
October 06, 2012 5:30 am • MARK ZANDI | Chief economist at Moody’s Analytics

Voters judging President Barack Obama’s economic policies this fall have a lot to think about. There is the fiscal stimulus, the auto bailout, saving Wall Street and then reforming it, not to mention health care reform.

How the administration handled the foreclosure crisis probably won’t figure large in the picture. But it should.

Housing was ground zero for the Great Recession. Between early 2006 and Obama’s inauguration in 2009, average house prices fell by a third across the country. In certain areas, including cities as diverse as Las Vegas, Orlando, Fla., and Akron, Ohio, house prices fell by more than half. Homeowners lost some $7 trillion in equity, and foreclosures surged. Millions of busted mortgage loans led to hundreds of billions of dollars in losses, sending the U.S. financial system to the brink of collapse.

Housing’s problems have remained an economic millstone, slowing the U.S. recovery. Historically, housing rebounds from recessions quickly, propelled by low mortgage rates. Home sales and housing construction have often powered rapid and substantial job creation, but not in the current recovery. While sales and construction have started to rise again, they have yet to add jobs on net.

The Obama administration deserves credit for quickly ending the housing free fall. In particular, Obama empowered the Federal Housing Administration to ensure that households could find mortgages at low interest rates even during the worst phase of the financial panic. When banks were making few loans of any kind, mortgage borrowers could still obtain credit because of the FHA.

The FHA had been virtually dormant during the housing bubble, but it made about one-third of all U.S. mortgage loans in the period after the bust. Without such credit, the housing market would have completely shut down, taking the economy with it. The effort took a toll on the agency’s finances, but so far the FHA has avoided turning to taxpayers for help, making it one of the few housing-related enterprises — public or private — that have not.

Temporary tax credits also enticed home buyers to act sooner rather than later, breaking a self-reinforcing deflationary cycle in the housing market. Prospective buyers had remained on the sidelines, waiting for prices to stop falling, and their reluctance caused prices to drop still more.

The tax credits didn’t spark additional home sales so much as pull sales forward from the future; sales weakened sharply as soon as the credits expired. The credits also were expensive, costing the Treasury tens of billions of dollars, and much of the benefit went to home buyers who would have bought homes anyway. But the tax benefit gave buyers a reason to stop waiting, ending the downdraft in prices.

Critics charge that the government’s intervention was costly and ineffective, that the administration should have let the housing market sort things out on its own. This would have been a reasonable position if house prices had been too high when Obama’s policies kicked in; but they weren’t. By the time Obama took office, prices had fallen substantially; with low mortgage rates factored in, homes were as affordable as ever. Investors knew this, and as soon as they saw prices nearing the bottom, they began snapping up distressed properties. These investors weren’t house flippers, like those who fueled the housing bubble, but long-term players seeing bargains. Obama’s efforts to shore up housing were well timed.

But while Obama’s response was on target during the financial crisis, his policies failed to quickly resolve the foreclosure crisis and jump-start a housing revival. Some 7 million homeowners have lost homes in foreclosures or short sales, and there are still 3 million homeowners facing repossession.

The administration’s main effort to help these homeowners, the Housing Affordable Modification Program, has fallen well short of its goals. HAMP offers monetary carrots to banks and mortgage investors who work with homeowners, modifying loan terms before a property is foreclosed.

The concept was laudable but better in theory than in practice. HAMP helped — about a million homeowners will ultimately receive modified loans — but that isn’t nearly enough. And calibrating incentives to induce banks to modify enough mortgage loans to make a difference has been daunting.

The administration probably should have added a financial stick to HAMP’s carrots, to induce banks to participate more aggressively. Banks have recently allowed more short sales, which are better than foreclosures, but the change happened mainly because of the legal settlement between banks and state attorneys general over the robo-signing scandal.

To be fair, the administration has tried to improve HAMP, most recently by increasing the incentives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to reduce homeowners’ loan principal. But Fannie and Freddie’s regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, opposes principal reduction, fearing a rash of mortgage defaults by homeowners trying to get their loans modified. The FHFA’s fear is misplaced, but the agency has the final say.

Comment by Martin
2012-10-08 06:40:41

What about the Shadow Inventory?

Did Obama really catch it or created an illusion.

Comment by azdude
2012-10-08 06:42:19

shadow inventory is only an illusion.

Comment by Darryl Is A Liar
2012-10-08 06:44:13

It is?

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Comment by aNYCdj
2012-10-08 07:43:36

I see shadow inventory every time i look outhouse just up the road has been for sale 3 times plenty of open houses yet it still sits empty.. Its actually pretty good shape…

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 07:39:11

Maybe if everyone collectively ignores the shadow inventory, it will cease to exist?

Housing: Plenty Of Reasons To Be Pessimistic
October 7, 2012

There’s plenty of debate about - and money riding on - the question of whether we are in the midst of a sustainable recovery in the housing market. Nobody knows for sure, of course, but there are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic.

For one thing, the supply of homes, in terms of what is currently on the market and what is potentially for sale whether or not prices rebound further - the so-called shadow inventory - remains significant relative to demand, even though data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that inventories of existing homes are back to where they were eight years ago.

Aside from the question of whether developments that have occurred since then, including the fact that their are more ways to sell property than by going through a broker, have distorted the inventory calculation, the composition of sales has changed from what it was. Nowadays, a much greater share of transactions are in the “distressed” category than before the bubble burst. Given that more than 20 percent of sales are foreclosures and short sales makes the current ratio look healthier than it is in comparable terms.

Needless to say, shadow inventory is far greater than it was during the go-go years, when people were happy to remain long despite a booming market. With prices having fallen sharply since then, we now have a situation akin to those seen in other post-collapse markets: Holders can turn seller on a heartbeat as prices move closer to what they paid or owe on their mortgages. Given that more than 20 percent of mortgagees are underwater, that represents a sizable overhang.

The tide of past, present, and future foreclosures-actual and de facto-has also left lenders with substantial holdings of “real estate owned” (REO) properties that will undoubtedly be offered for sale at some point
. These are not voluntary investments being held for the long-term; they are unwanted assets that are costing money by the day to finance and maintain. According to HousingWire, nearly half of mortgage giant Fannie Mae’s REO holdings are unable to reach the market at present.

It’s not just about supply, however. Demand is significantly less than it used to be for a variety of reasons, most notably because it is much harder to get financing now than it was when the property market was booming. Despite some recent loosening of credit conditions and ultra-low mortgage rates, anecdotal and other reports make it clear that lenders are generally unwilling to grant loans except on stringent terms to the highest quality borrowers.

But even if you discount the fact that traditional home buyers are having a difficult time borrowing the money they need to buy a home, it’s apparent that other factors, including societal shifts, are undermining demand, and will likely continue doing so for the foreseeable future.

Number one among them are economic conditions in the post-crisis era, which are having an adverse affect on prospective homeowners’ willingness and ability to take the plunge. A structurally weak employment market, where temporary and low-paid services jobs comprise the lion’s share of the jobs being created and where the odds of finding another, better paying, and more secure opportunity are low, is not the catalyst for people to step up and make what could be the biggest investment of their lives.

Demographic factors are also playing a role. The upheavals of the past decade or so have reaffirmed the truism that growing older means trading down and taking less risk. And while ultra-low interest rates have pushed some of those who survive on their savings to invest in something other than a bank CD, real estate is definitely not the investment of choice. At the same time, broader societal changes, including more people living alone and more single-parent households, is undercutting demand for what has traditionally been a nuclear family-oriented investment.

Perspectives about what really matters are evolving as well, especially among the younger generation. Whereas in the past the milestones of getting married, buying a car, and acquiring a home represented the natural progression of things when children reached adulthood, priorities have changed. A recent Bloomberg report noted that 4G wireless telephones trumped V-8 cars for the 80 million U.S. consumers born from 1981 to 2001. Meanwhile, the still-ailing post-crisis economy has convinced a growing number of young people to embrace “the age of frugality.”

In addition to shifting preferences, many of those who are at the lower end of the demographic scale already have a big financial burden hanging around their necks, which precludes them from taking on other big commitments like a mortgage - that is, student loans. Aside from the fact that, for many graduates, these obligations are far higher than they were, proportionally speaking, even a decade ago, the prospect of being in the hole for as far as the eye can see leaves a lasting impression on impressionable individuals.

Policy-making in Washington and by the Federal Reserve further underscore doubts about taking big risks that might backfire. While the latter keeps reassuring everyone that it has matters under control and that interest rates will remain low for years to come, given how many promises they and other authorities have broken over the past several decades, it’s not surprising that people are hesitant to count on that on those assertions going forward.

Lastly and perhaps most importantly, demand is being undermined by broader-scale mood swings. People are beginning to accept that it isn’t necessary to own your own home, nor is it necessarily a long-term goal. That might seem like heresy in a country where property ownership has been viewed as a God-given right, but when you consider that in economic powerhouse Germany the share of residential property accounted for by rentals is more than 60 percent in most states and 90 percent in the capital, Berlin, it’s not all that strange.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 07:41:50

From the article: Demand is significantly less than it used to be

The reality is that housing demand 60% less than peak and at 1996 levels….. and falling.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 07:47:59

“These are not voluntary investments being held for the long-term; they are unwanted assets that are costing money by the day to finance and maintain.”

Is anybody keeping track of the tab for government-owned-and-maintained REO inventory? I’d like to know how much U.S. taxpayers are getting charged for holding homes off the market.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 07:50:15

“Demand is significantly less than it used to be for a variety of reasons, most notably because it is much harder to get financing now than it was when the property market was booming.”

The experts keep pounding on the tighter lending standards as the choke point on demand. Never mind the labor market still remains for the most part in the toilet.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 07:52:37

“And while ultra-low interest rates have pushed some of those who survive on their savings to invest in something other than a bank CD, real estate is definitely not the investment of choice.”

This article is loaded with nuggets of gold!

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 07:55:12

Even if demand were to stop falling and magically begin levitating to peak levels, it still wouldn’t touch the excess empty inventory.

For this very reason, DO NOT buy housing.

 
Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 08:04:16

but when you consider that in economic powerhouse Germany the share of residential property accounted for by rentals is more than 60 percent in most states and 90 percent in the capital, Berlin, it’s not all that strange ??

A very interesting statistic that I was unaware of….Less than a 40% ownership rate in Germany with its high income and all ??

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 08:25:40

A very interesting statistic that I was unaware of….Less than a 40% ownership rate in Germany with its high income and all ??

I guess that since most Germans have good wages, benefits and pensions waiting for them, they don’t need “their house to work for them”?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 08:29:38

Never mind the labor market still remains for the most part in the toilet.

Agreed. What percentage of the bumper crop of jobs just announced were P/T Lucky Ducky jobs? I suspect that it was very high.

 
Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 08:47:17

benefits and pensions waiting for them, they don’t need “their house to work for them” ??

Maybe that is it….

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 10:12:05

Communism and the reunification of West and East Germany are why rental rates are so high in Germany. For those of you too young to know Germany was split into two counties after World War II by the U.S. allies and the Russians. West Germany became part of Western Europe and East Germany was run by the communist. The communist “liberated” the housing stock from the people and built large social housing projects in East Germany. Housing was owned by the state not by the people individually. When the Berlin Wall Fell and communism ended and the two parts were re-united in East Germany the housing stock became rentals. And East Germans flooded West Germany to escape of the hell hole that Communism had created in the East. The mass of East Germans were poor and rented houses in the West to find jobs and a better life. So you ended up with rentals in both the East and the West. Prices for housing in the East fell because so many people wanted to leave the East so naturally it wasn’t worth “investing” in East German real estate.

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 10:15:27

And it amazes me after seeing all these millions of people escaping communism and socialism in the East that so many young American’s now think socialism is just the trick to solve all our ills. How easily we forget the suffering of our brothers and sisters in the name of socialism.

And you do know that Angela Merkel is a former communist leader, don’t you?

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 10:29:02

Next time you hear the libs say they just need another temporary tax hike or they only want to tax the rich and why not add a VAT? Why only have an income tax and VAT tax? Why not *take *the actual property of the rich?… know that it is never temporary and their failed attempts at redistribution will never work. They will never admit failure and they will want more and more and more until they finally go after the poor too and take everything. This is how it has always worked. Productivity in East Germany even ten years after re-unification was one third that of West Germany. Socialism destroys GDP and the pie shrinks. The productive go Galt.

One of the most significant obstacles for a substantial flow of investments has been the absence of a functioning real estate market. Most pre-War private property was expropriated or confiscated under the Communist regime. The first wave of measures transferring private property into the Ownership of the people” (a more appropriate term would be government or State ownership) was the so-called “Land Reform” (instituted during the Soviet Occupation between 1945 and 1949. The East German Communist government installed in 1949 continued these expropriations and confiscations that ended with a comprehensive expropriation order in 1972 that resulted in most of the remaining privately held real property and businesses, which had until then survived, finally being expropriated or confiscated. Consequently, hardly any real estate was in private hands when the Berlin Wall came down on November 9, 1989.

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 10:31:29

Those who don’t know their history are bound to repeat it. This is case in point. None of you could think of why there is such a large rental market in Germany. And this is why we have Obama and not Ron Paul for president because no one remember communism…

 
Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 10:32:47

Thanks for the history lesson SF Bay Area…I think that may explain why there is a low ownership rate…

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-10-08 10:49:09

None of you could think of why

Golly! We were stumped til you came along, perfesser! Teach us more about how them Obama people are communist!

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 11:03:34

And it amazes me after seeing all these millions of people escaping communism and socialism

Actually, I think that it was totalitarianism they were escaping. You don’t see people fleeing for their lives from Sweden. And compared to us, Germans are very socialistic. They have national health and virtually free higher ed. Yet their system is working while ours is floundering.

My wife is a German citizen and lived in Germany prior to the fall of the Berlin Wall. From what she tells me most middle class Germans rented back then as well.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 11:29:51

And it amazes me after seeing all these millions of people escaping communism and socialism in the East that so many young American’s now think socialism is just the trick to solve all our ills. SF Bay Area

You are (to me at least) becoming predictably inconsistent. About half of your observations objectively perceive reality but then you hit these dogmatic blocks to reality IMO or you come to non-sequitur conclusions. These patterns are very similar to the patterns of the poster Northeasterner.

Some examples: Your above sentence. You equate godless USSR type Communism with Americans wanting a few social safety nets such as universal health care, Soc/Sec and Medicare. To equate Soc/Sec, Medicare and universal health-care with Russian Communism is a straw-man/false argument. They are not even in the same ball-park. What is the motivation to not see or acknowledge the difference between Russian Communism and USA Soc/Sec and health-care? What is the motivation for such a huge and potentially devious straw-man argument?

Americans are not asking for Soviet Communism. I sure am not. Americans are asking for some health-care and the continuation of social programs of which some are over 70 years old. You’re straw-man argument above detours from reality as does many of the false-hoods propaganda tricks coming out of the Republican Party machine.

And here is where your inconsistency (Northeasterner’s type) comes into play: You supported universal, “socialistic” health-care in one of your post’s and did a good job of it. Then you call people who support what you just supported in that post “communists”. It’s like you try to gain credibility with some on the left by advocating part of their positions and then you call them “commies” for supporting positions you just supported too.

As someone asked Northeasterner when he had shown a similar posting pattern, did someone steal your handle?

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 12:50:31

Rio, why are so many East Germans (and former East Germans now living in Western Germany) renters. I’m listening.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 13:00:50

Rio, why are so many East Germans (and former East Germans now living in Western Germany) renters. I’m listening.

The reason why there are so many East Germans (and former East Germans now living in Western Germany) illustrates why you equating Americans advocating for universal health-care/SocSec with godless Soviet Communism is a straw-man, false argument.

The horrible conditions that East Germans fled from in no way shape or form equate with universal health-care, Soc/Security and Medicare in America. To equate them is total deception and delusion.

Are you listening?

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 13:04:42

So you won’t answer my question?

 
Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 13:06:51

So you may have answered the question…Why the condescending lecture afterwords ??

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 13:23:25

scdave, I apologize for being condescending period - full stop. I should not have been.

I do think though that if you boil down the 20th century there is clearly one key lesson and that is the experiment in communism. It failed miserably and lead to the death of millions and enslaved half the population on this planet. I’ve read numerous discussions on this board that are related to this topic in one way or another and not once have I seen anyone make the connection. That really deeply worries me because this is obviously a well educated and intelligent crowd and this is such a pivotal point. I have a lot of respect for the thinkers on this board and are trying to understand how to build a better system. But if they don’t grasp the 20th century how fruitful will their ambition be?

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 13:29:31

scdave, I’ll give you another example - and I bit my tongue and didn’t say anything. There was a discussion here on wages in the U.S. declining.

I saw some good points being brought up about tariffs, currency manipulation, offshoring, etc. All very astute.

But the elephant in the room was never discussed. The fall of communism.

What is the impact of half the worlds labor getting dumped onto the world labor market?

That was the result of the fall of communism and it’s why wages have declined in the U.S. Yes, there are other factors - but that is *the* critical factor over the last 30 years.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 13:32:09

So you won’t answer my question?

I answered it. You just have to read carefully. This is another pattern you use. You make a total straw-man argument and then when called upon it you distract with a mostly non-related issue to the issue you were being called out on. My point with you was that you equating Americans calling for some safety nets with Soviet Communism is a BS, straw-man, false argument and is similar to tactics used by the Republican propaganda machine.

Why the condescending lecture afterwords ??

If you’re addressing me, My post is simply a presentation of facts based on his prior posts. I don’t see that as condescension. It was also a way to stay on topic to my point which SF BAY AREA wanted to avoid.

Again:
Rio, why are so many East Germans (and former East Germans now living in Western Germany) renters. I’m listening.

The reason why there are so many East Germans (and former East Germans now living in Western Germany) illustrates why you equating Americans advocating for universal health-care/SocSec with godless Soviet Communism is a straw-man, false argument.

The horrible conditions that East Germans fled from in no way shape or form equate with universal health-care, Soc/Security and Medicare in America. To equate them is total deception and delusion. Are you listening?

(SF Bay Area said he was “listening” but he obviously was not)

 
Comment by Diogenes (Tampa,Fl)
2012-10-08 13:45:08

Teach us more about how them Obama people are communist!

I’ve never taken the position that Obama is communist, although that system would be preferable to him than any free market economy or democratic form of government.

I say Obama is a Fascist, or a heavy-handed “socialist”. There is a fine line, but not much.
Communism, the State owns everything and dictates where you will live, what level of education you will attain and what job you will do, by Committee, both local and nationally.
It is a dictatorship of the masses by thugs.

Socialism is just a somewhat freer system of Private enterprise, with a Heavy tax burden to provide social support programs for Everyone. You can still own your property, but you will be taxed out of you gourd for the privilege.

FASCISM is a more dictatorial form of socialism. You can still own your property, but you can’t do anything with it without the permission of the government, who will dictate how “your” property, your business, you land and your possessions will be put to use for the State.
As opposed to Communism with its Block Housing, you get to keep your big house if you can afford the Tax, and if the State needs to use you land for a big party, well they’ll just send in the troops and tell you to move over. No recourse.

In all cases, Government is about using FORCE to make people conform to the mandates of the elite, however that may be. Castro hated and envied the rich, until he became a dictator. He loved playing golf, a game purely for the “ruling class”, the likes of America’s 1%.

 
Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 13:50:52

If you’re addressing me ??

I was not…If you go back through the post you will see that I thanked SF Bay Area for short history lesson that may answer why there are so many rentals in Germany…I then posted again asking why such condescending language

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 13:54:23

Rio so will you answer my question - why are so many East Germans (and former East Germans now living in Western Germany) renters?

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 14:06:03

“Why not *take *the actual property of the rich surfs and middle-class?… 1916 ,Tsar Nicholas II, last Tsar of Russia

“Those who don’t know their history are bound to repeat it.”
1917, Lenin talking to Trotsky about Tsar Nicholas II’s Russian gross wealth inequality.

Those who don’t know their history are bound to repeat it. Massive and growing wealth/income inequality led to Communism, and massive and growing wealth/income inequality are the root of America’s economic and class problems today. You think making rich richer is the solution?

American wealth inequality has skyrocketed to the danger point and the wealth inequality apologists exacerbate the problem and fan the flames of real class warfare. It is not those who want to protect Soc/Security and Medicare who are tearing America apart. Rather it is the forces that propagandize for the rich at the expense of the middle-class who are the real problem in America.

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 14:16:29

Rio are you not going to answer me?

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 14:17:50

Rio so will you answer my question - why are so many East Germans (and former East Germans now living in Western Germany) renters?

I did. Your reading comprehension apparently drops in direct proportion to your dogmatic disliking of the material. Read it again. But will you answer me on why you use straw-man/false arguments such as equating Americans who want to protect Soc/Sec/Medicare with Russian Communism? Or why you deflect from your criticisms by asking non-related questions that people have already answered. Or why do you attempt to appeal to the middle by advocating universal health-care and then call those on the left who advocate universal healthcare “commies”? It’s bait and switch, hide the pea and deceptive.

Based on my observation that your reading comprehension drops in direct proportion to your dogmatic disliking of the material, you will ask me the same question again that I’ve answered and ignore the rest of MY questions.

Here again is my answer to your question on why East Germans fled to W. Germany. If you can’t figure it out, you don’t want to.

The horrible conditions that East Germans fled from in no way shape or form equate with universal health-care, Soc/Security and Medicare in America. To equate them is total deception and delusion.

 
Comment by Northeastener
2012-10-08 14:25:54

Those who don’t know their history are bound to repeat it. Massive and growing wealth/income inequality led to Communism, and massive and growing wealth/income inequality are the root of America’s economic and class problems today.

There was massive wealth inequality in American in the 1800’s and early 1900’s. We didn’t devolve into Communism then… why should we now?

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 14:36:29

There was massive wealth inequality in American in the 1800’s and early 1900’s. We didn’t devolve into Communism then… why should we now?

We shouldn’t. But that does not mean we couldn’t. American wealth inequality was nowhere near Russia’s in 1917 and the Americans middle-class was making a general trend of progress in America for a couple hundred years until about the 70’s. We also have more information about these trends.

Wealth inequality also took a big change for the better starting with the New Deal, post WWII and the GI Bill, Medicare, SocSec, Unions etc. We are now quickly erasing much of the middle-class gains.

 
Comment by whyoung
2012-10-08 14:40:47

“A very interesting statistic that I was unaware of….Less than a 40% ownership rate in Germany with its high income and all ??

I guess that since most Germans have good wages, benefits and pensions waiting for them, they don’t need “their house to work for them”?”
______
I have friends who live in a small town about 50 miles from
Stuttgart…

Here are a few of some things they told me that might be factors.

1) They are a lot less mobile than we are, people tend to stay pretty close to where they grew up.
2) They have a expression “work, work, build the house” - and it is apparently fairly common for an older generation with some land to divide it up into lots for the younger ones. ( I suspect this is a bit of a hidden “subsidy” for some.) Otherwise land and existing houses are pretty expensive compared to ours.
3) finding a rental can be really challenging… there are apparently fairly strong laws so landlords heavily scrutinize potential tenants and again that is an incentive for people not move as often once they have a spot they like.
4) they don’t have the same tax incentives we do (no mtg interest deduction)

 
Comment by Ryan
2012-10-08 14:54:14

Where will Socialists draw the line if they have their way? Will it stop with Medical Care/Social Security? Or will it move on from there?

-Will the Government decide it can’t provide enough jobs for the labor force and nationalize industries?
-What about banking? Will they finish the job?

I know some of you people have the liberal blinders on but you have to realize that pushing for more social programs worries people. None of these politicians come out and say “don’t worry, this is where it ends” As a matter of fact, Maxine Waters threatened oil companies with nationalization at one point.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 14:59:55

Where will Socialists draw the line if they have their way? Will it stop with Medical Care/Social Security? Or will it move on from there?

How about drawing the line at 1972. The left is not fighting for more of a social safety net and more wealth equality than America had in the past. The left is fighting to retain the scraps of an already existing social safety net and to reverse some of the massive wealth inequality foisted upon their country in the past 30-40 years.

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 15:14:37

Rio, that is not an answer to my question. Will you answer it directly? I don’t think you will.

Let me ask you a second question Rio. Would you advocate the the U.S. government taking wealth or property from some of it’s citizens? I’m not talking about income tax or a VAT tax. I’m asking you about taking (a percentage or in whole), real estate, financial assets, businesses, precious metals, machinery, jewelry, rare collections, autos, yachts, wine cellars - any form of wealth. Would you advocate that?

Time for me to go on my run. I’ll let you consider that question.

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 15:50:09

Hard core socialist can not logically make the connection between socialism and the taking of wealth and the consequential destruction of productivity and the poverty it creates. If they made the logical connection I think blood would squirt out of their eyeballs. They can see poverty and they can see the social benefit of giving a man a fish (rather than teaching him to fish) but they never can see why the poverty is there in the first place. They just see the poverty as if it was an isolated state of reality out in space and they think - hey let’s give ‘em all fish!!!

During the 20th century half the global population was plunged into poverty by various forms of hard core socialism. The poverty was created by the hard core socialist systems. Productivity per worker declined. GDP therefore declined. The total pie got smaller and smaller and smaller. People went without. Eventually the system caused the collapse of the hard core socialist states.

When these hard core socialist states started to collapse there was global social unrest. The West made a deal with the hard core socialist states or think of it as a bribe. The hard core socialist states agreed to dismantle their cold war assets and their socialist states and we agreed to help them transition back to a more balanced form of capitalism. They got some free trade, we let them manipulate their currencies and we got out of an explosive situation.

This resulted in a dumping of cheap labor that had been boxed up for half a century. All these people needed to eat. And so the West had to compete against labor for pennies on the dollar from these failed hard core socialist states. It’s been 30 years and we’re still seeing our industries being exported and our wages slowly equalizing. And it’s causing poverty in the West.

So much of the poverty and lower wages we see now in the West is a direct result of the wealth destruction that went on for much of the 20th century in that little experiment by the hard core socialist states.

Think of it like water in a fish tank. The tank is full. You install a barrier in the middle of the tank. On the left you have the old hard core socialist states and on the right you have the West. Then the left drains out all their water. And the right stays full. So then you poke some holes in the barrier and the water flows from the right to the left. The water rises in the left and slowly drains in the right. That’s the wealth transfer that has been going on the last 30 years. It is a long term equalization.

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 16:09:01

Regarding my last post which hasn’t posted yet about the origins of poverty being the hard core socialism and the hard core socialist themselves not being able to see poverty as anything other than an isolated state existing as if in outer space. The first time I went to Brazil I remember seeing all that currency just floating down the streets in the wind. It would just blow around town. It was all over the sidewalks. People would walk on it. Burn it. Whatever. Oh that was last weeks currency! Due to hyperinflation is was all worthless this week. They had to add a few more zeros on the new currency. Or they had to come out with currency version 16.6 to replace the old failed currency. All that currency was printed to help the people in poverty. There they were - the poor and all they had to do was give them money for welfare programs and they could end poverty. And so they did. They gave them lots and lots of money! And it worked! Until it destroyed everyone’s wealth. And then even more people were poor. So they printed more money to give out for welfare. And it worked! and they hyperinflation put more and more people into poverty.

If only the solution was that simple.

Hard core socialism creates poverty it doesn’t prevent it. That’s the causal connection the hard core socialist can never seem to make.

I’ll give credit to Brazil though - after bilking the U.S. tax payer over and over with debt defaults and forgiveness followed by bouts of hyperinflation… they finally figured out what they were doing and they’ve been much more disciplined since. They never went down the road of the hard core socialist (at least not to the same degree). But they got close enough to get badly burned and learned a lesson.

It’s a shame the ideologues in the hard core socialist counties couldn’t get past their own blinders and pull out before killing millions and leading to a global slump this last 30 years.

 
Comment by Ryan
2012-10-08 16:40:17

Rio,

You won’t find me argue against SS or healthcare but I’m not left with the impression that liberals are happy leaving it at that.

Take for instance, the example I used regarding Maxine Waters. There are liberals out there who want nationalization of industries and full-blown wealth redistribution beyond just raising taxes. THAT is what scares me, these are the people that want to lead us down the path to somewhere history has shown us we don’t want to go.

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 17:59:33

Ryan that is very true. Don’t get me started on Maxine Waters.

Rio you can have a social safety net to the degree you can pay for it.

Borrowing money from the Chinese to pay for it does not account as paying for it. And we’re just pissing off the Chinese doing that - they literally rioting in the street telling us to pay them their money back and stop debasing the worlds reserve currency with our social programs and neocon wars. And why should some family from China who has no social safety net and who will enjoy no social security or medicare pay for the social security or medicare of a U.S. citizen? It makes no sense to them and it makes no sense to me either.

And raising tax rates to 100% and stealing the wealth of a nation isn’t going to work either. It’s been tried - see communism in the 20th century. Productivity will decline rapidly and GDP will shrink.

You can’t just print money and send everyone a welfare check. You just end up life Brazil with currency in the streets blowing in the wind. If only it was that simple.

And borrowing means paying it back later in slower growth. And it’s not about our kids paying it back. They won’t have anymore excess than we do now. So it means our kids living in a hellish future with negative GDP growth as far as the eye can see. And then they won’t get a social safety net. Why take away their safety net and give it to someone living today? That’s just crooked.

If you want a social safety net it has to be paid for in real time. No deficits, no borrowing no money printing, no stealing. It has to be affordable. You can’t keep deficits, money printing, stealing going forever. And when you ask your socialist friends how they plan to pay for it like Rio they will dodge the question and never answer it. Because to answer it would be to admit they are impoverishing one person to give to another. It’s all one circular logic.

Whatever social safety net you devise has to be affordable and targeted. Ideally most of the design of the social safety net should be to help the young to develop their potential to start businesses so they don’t need to rely on welfare to begin with. Create a bigger pie and a population with skills.

But to think you are helping people by putting them in some display in a museum with food, shelter and medical care is absurd. That’s not life. That’s a zoo. Giving them a fair chance to go out in the wild world and make communities, businesses and other creative ventures that won’t be taken away from them - that’s life.

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 18:13:23

“How about drawing the line at 1972. The left is not fighting for more of a social safety net and more wealth equality than America had in the past.”

I was old enough in 1972 to see it first hand. Where you Rio? Let me tell you what happened. The U.S. government printed money - lots and lots of money like they had never done before. And it caused tremendous run away inflation. And the poor got wiped out by the inflation. Suddenly people couldn’t afford things like meat and fish and milk for the kids. Heating became too expensive for homes. I remember all these retired people living on dry cereal for breakfast, lunch and dinner because their savings were wiped out and that’s all they could afford that would prevent them from getting vitamin deficiencies. And it kept on that way until Volker kicked inflation and crashed the economy in the early 1980’s.

Yes, that was some socialist utopia. I just can’t wait to live through that again!

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-10-08 18:24:24

I will say I want 10 trillion (at least ) back from the 1% that made the heist and took the money and ran and got undeserved Bail Outs ,when they should be in jail . Any entity that got ill gotten gain from the fraud should be taxed also in that decade of the ‘Heist”. But ,on top of everything else the
Money Changers still have over 800 trillion in outstanding
derivatives as a byproduct of their unregulated high leverage casino games, that could blow up .I say cancel all the stupid ass bets and close them all down and start all over again .Get rid of the Feds and that gets rid of one of the oppressors of capitalism .

Nobody can even begin to talk about socialism or anything when we have crony capitalism in which trillions went to Ponzi scheme criminals . Systems rigged to pad the pockets of MONEY CHANGERS who are bubble creating bogus investment pushers ,churn for a return ,fraudulent schemers ,leverage without money backing it , greed that knows no bounds ,leave the people in ruins criminals ,that give nothing and get major tax breaks . YES I WANT THEM TO PAY a 95 % tax and than some . I want them to make all that they have torn apart whole again .

The 50 million that went into the” need assistance” aren’t communist ,they are victims of a system that was based on stacking the deck in favor of “Heists ” by thugs . The Enron Playbook of economic theory .

I have made some post on how big Corporations and Wall Street/Banks and Insurance Companies play the government for pawns and get the government to supplement them ,or bail them out ,or undertax them . Their heists are so big that it puts public assistance being peanuts by comparsion .

Now they want to go after Social Security ( a paid into system ) leave millions without health insurance if they can’t pay some inflated monopoly price fixing absurd price that is expected by another corrupt monopoly called medical care .

I say bust the corruption in the systems and the Politicial lobby system in which the rich and powerful are calling the shots . This isn’t even close to a concept of regulated capitalism . It just became a government by price fixing Monopoly Corporations and Bankers and Big Pharma and Insurance parasites ,and inflation by design .

The people in America are hard working people for most part ,but if they are denied opportunity they can’t thrive .
Good jobs and a low unemployment rates floats all boats .

Throw all the Politicians out ,they are traitors . Stop this military spending that has killed to many people .

Stop throwing people under the bus and than turn around and demean them as if they want to be in poverty . Sure there are some flakes and people who take advantage ,but not like the 1% and powerful Corporations have taken advantage ,and they have no loyalty to the USA at all ,or the worker in the USA ,yet they want to sell to them and make money off of them .

The moral hazard of allowing this Corporation Controlled and Banker controlled system is that it will turn the people into people who don’t care anymore because they know the game is rigged against them .

In fact ,this is worse than any commie system could be .
This is more like a mafia system that we have now . And the stupid little fines that they are slapping on the Corporation crimes that they keep on discovering are peanuts compared to the damage and heist ,( such a deal )
BIg Phama gets busted for crimes that killed thousands and
they get fined a fraction of what their profits were ,and nobody went to jail ,same with bank corruption deals .

Elisenhower in 1953 said in essence that the America people should be on the lookout for a Industrial/Military takeover of the USA . I read that he got scolded for saying
such a thing after his speech was over on live TV.He never mentioned it again and would not comment on it . Well ,its hhere in living color. We may need to suspend the lobbying system for about 10 years to get things back on tract ,These are madhatters that are running us into a unsustainable ditch ,while they take the ill-gotten gains and run .

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2012-10-08 18:28:15

SF…that’s where tough love comes in…force welfare/FS peeps to sit in class 25 hours a week and learn math and English….we need a war on Ebonics, and eliminate functional Illiteracy…

But then we need a president who cares too.

PS probably 1/2 will quit the first month…saving tens of billions in costs

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 19:40:10

I was brave enough to laid out my action plan here housing wizard - point by point a couple of days back. What I would cut, what I would tax, etc. I hear a lot of grumbles but what is your action plan?

You wanna get 10 trillion from the 1%? Let’s take me for example. I’m a 1%’er. What exactly would you do to get your 10 trillion back from me? I’m in high tech. I donated much of my life to open source software giving my work away for free which has created a lot of wealth and democratized Internet power to millions of people around the world. I’ve taken start-ups and launched them. And I’ve done it with integrity. I’ve spent my life with one goal and that is to be of service. Turns out people value me. Give me all you got. How would you like to deal with me and most of the 1% like me that pretty much have spent a lifetime trying to be of service. Because only a small fraction of the 1% got their by bilking the financial system or running Enron. It’s only takes a few thousand leveraged ponzi pirates to blow up the national debt. But I take it you’d like to take the rest of us with them. Maybe kill off everyone that separates this nation from the stone age.

Kind of reminds me of the killing fields in Vietnam. They basically took anyone with over a third grade education and shot them. That really helped them recover their GDP didn’t it?

Or like the Chinese cultural revolution? I liked that one. A full decade after the communists had taken control of China things started to go South. It seems they had no idea how to centrally plan the nation and people started to starve. But luckily their propaganda department had been busy in the schools and little daughter Mei and son Wang from the farm decided that mom and dad were not pure enough. The teachers weren’t pure enough. The mayor wasn’t pure enough. The doctors were not pure enough. The politburo wasn’t pure enough. So little farmers daughter Mei and son Wang decided to have themselves a revolution and prosecute over 100 million Chinese and kill another 20 million more. And they particularly liked to persecute the few people left in China with an education. Take for example doctors. Can’t have those! They’re the 1%’ers So little farmers daughter Mei and son Wang decided to kill all the doctors and persecute the nurses and put farmers in charge of surgery. Ever wonder why China has the worst medical system of any major nation?

Worse than here? I think not. You want to go to the killing fields or live through the cultural revolution madness?

I don’t think killing the top 1% helped Chinese GDP one bit. Because little farmers daughter Mei and son Wang et al took over the Politburo and decided to make a pure system and drove the economy into the ground after that. It was pure hell on earth.

If you don’t mean the 1% than why not say what you mean. Because from I am reading what you are saying is dangerous.

The first day I cam back to this forum I called out a poster and said that the weakness in communism is the same as the weakness in capitalism. They both tend toward a monopoly of power. Where there is a monopoly of power their is corruption.

I think what you want is a war on the monopoly of power.

And if that is what you want I am all on board with you with a Ron Paul type cleaning of the slate:

- End the Fed
- End fractional reserve banking
- A currency that is stable in value forever
- The end to prop trading at the banks
- End to high frequency trading and dark pools - one market - one tick say every half second and everyone sees everyone else’s trade.
- End consumer consumption credit
- End the neo-con empire, close the bases and bring it all home
- Break up all the monopolies
- reform patent and copyrights for the digital age
- and yes close the deficit and we will have to raise taxes on everyone making over the median income

- and I could go on and on but I already posted my list here.

As for SS and medicare trust fund that you and I paid into - that was raided two decades ago. And the actuarial warned congress. And then medicare was completely bankrupted by the prescription drug program which both parties voted for.

A lot of things - like barn doors open and the horses are long gone. All we got was a huge national debt and this t-shirt. And the t-shirt says “give us our money - singed the Chinese.”

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 20:07:49

aNYCdj - I can teach anyone, anywhere math. And I don’t need ritalin to do it. “This is going to hurt you a lot more than it is going to hurt me.” Just do it like the Japanese - focus, focus, focus and round robin those little hooded perps to the chalk board for group problem drills for hours on end. Work the problems - each kid - help from the group if they fail. I could teach a goat calculus. Seriously.

So sign me up. I’m thinking about retiring when my tax rate goes up to 56% in 2013. I’m going to need a hobby.

Sounds noble to me.

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-10-08 21:40:41

SF BAY AREA

Keeping the corrupted systems in tact will just bring more of the same .

I don’t suggest going after 1% people or Corporations that are a asset to our society and engage in constructive actions . It’s pretty clear who the thieves are .I have been in favor of tax breaks for local small business .

Corporation welfare in a variety of ways is doing major damage to a functional economy ,if you are concerned
about the middle class and upper middle class, which use to make up the majority in this Country .

Our trade balances and tariffs are a joke and the protection of the USA workers against world slave labor
is not any protection at all . Just who are the Politicians suppose to serve anyway ,a Global elite ,or the people of the USA ? Our workers can not compete against low world wages and cheap polluting manufacturing in other countries . No contest because it would mean going back to the dark ages .

Ford Moter Company ,(after having the nerve to ask for a bail out ), than opened up their new plant in Mexico paying those workers 5 bucks a hour with no benefits . Than they want to sell 25 to 40 thousand dollar cars here as if they were giving high wages to their workers to justify those prices ,and they act like they are a USA
Company . With GMC they produce 7 out of 10 cars outside country . What a joke ,how can they be considered a USA Company anymore in that all that income flow is going
outside America and the tax revenue from same .
All the outsourcing going on is a joke . I guess most people expierence it when they call to complain to a Company and you get a foreigner on the phone .They should be charged a tax penalty for any job outsourced for taking cash flow out of America ,instead the Politicians gave them tax breaks for outsourcing ( go figure ) .

And how is Romney going to keep that job money in the USA by giving the job givers a tax break when they could care less about hiring USA citizens . What was Romney’s claim that he would create 12 million good paying jobs
here if he was elected . Penalty is the only thing that is going to work .

They gov. gave the Banks /Investment houses /other entities trillions ,with no requirement placed on them .
The new regulations didn’t take away their basic corrupt
casino games and the world watched them take the money and run and everything to prop up that sector .

Until you get out of the rigged and stacked deck systems ,which include price fixing monopolies ,than you can’t have anything that resembles capitalism . It’s just powerful entities picking the winners and losers by a stacked deck .Globalism doesn’t work and we don’t even have business borders anymore .

So ,the welfare needs are increasing and the health system is on the verge of collaspe because its not sustainable and we really can’t afford it ,so something has to give . What has to give is the stacked deck system that has enriched
the 1% and powerful Monopolies to the destruction of the
economic balance that we use to enjoy in this Country .
The middle class didn’t change ( with the expection of getting into debt by this easy credit done by the Culprits ). The systems changed and the power structures changed and globalism changed the game ,and the game has enriched few hands and has screwed the middle class in America and has thrown many into poverty who other wise wouldn’t of ended up there .

When a system fails the people ,that’s different than people being deadbeats or people wanting a commie Country .People who have no opportunity will be more inclined to want GOVERNMENT CHEESE ,just for survival .
It can’t continue ,given what the power structures have become .

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-10-08 23:28:44

SFarea,

I post late as a courtesy. Hope you’ll take it as intended.

Some original thoughts would be appreciated by those of us who welcome considered rightest commentary. Why not put forth the effort and make a convincing argument instead of squandering Ben’s bandwidth with the same mid-level politburo talking points? This board could use a good counter-argument instead of the same old rehash that too often passes for discussion here.

Franky, I seems to this reader that your exegeses are filtered through a hackneyed knowledge of political history and the smug self-satisfaction of someone who has spent too much time in the company of sycophants. Moreover, you seem to take untoward umbrage when some of the more patient posters call you out on your ill-considered cliches. No one care who you think you are in “real” life. That’s not what this forum is about.

Perhaps the fact escapes you that the socialist programs you cite (and cite and cite) as cautionary were enacted to address rampant poverty and unsustainable wealth disparities (and the civil unrest it spawns) in the first place? This is certainly not to excuse totalitarian excess, (as some would imply), but your verbiage is glaring in its lack of perspective. You can do better.

You’ve posed some good questions here, and they deserve thoughtful discussion, but your efforts would be far more effective (and engaging) if you’d lose some of the defensive self-justification and tried for elucidation rather than bombast.

To get respect, you have to show it first.
Pax.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 05:51:38

The “federal interest here” mentioned in the article below came into existence through an unprecedented federal government incursion into private dealings in local housing markets.

Cities Weighing Mortgage Seizures Get Washington’s Attention

By Clea Benson - Sep 20, 2012 9:19 AM PT

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
A worker removes furniture from a foreclosed home in Richmond, California.

Legislation introduced last week by Representative John Campbell , a California Republican, would bar Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Veterans Administration and the FHA from guaranteeing or buying loans in communities that seize mortgages. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

U.S. regulators and lawmakers are seeking ways to keep local governments from using the power of eminent domain to seize mortgages, citing concern about the potential cost to taxpayers, investors and homebuyers.

The issue, the subject of a Mortgage Bankers Association symposium today, has gained attention in Washington after the city of Chicago and California’s San Bernardino County said they would consider confiscating home loans and cutting borrowers’ debt. No community has taken the step so far.

What investors in their right mind would invest in a community that allows arbitrary writedowns of negative equity?” MBA president and chief executive officer David Stevens said at the symposium. “That lack of investor capital will have a direct and profound impact on future homebuyers in those communities, preventing a recovery of the housing market.

The federal government is positioned to wield broad power in the debate because it owns or guarantees 90 percent of U.S. mortgages through government-sponsored enterprises and the Federal Housing Administration.

We have to answer the question, is there a federal interest here?” Alfred Pollard, general counsel of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said at the symposium. “I can tell you the answer is yes, there is a federal interest here.

Comment by redrum
2012-10-08 07:41:58

Price drops due to a lack of lending.
Reduction in principal for existing owners.
Seems like a win win.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 05:52:38

Why are global stock markets down in the dumps today?

STOXX 50 2,506.16 -25.05 -0.99%
FTSE 100 5,831.32 -39.70 -0.68%
DAX 7,303.65 -94.22 -1.27%

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 06:05:29

Pre-Market Indications | Analyst Ratings
Futures: S&P 500 -0.4% DOW -0.3% NASDAQ -0.5%

Street charts unsettled start

Stock futures pressured after the World Bank scales back 2012 forecast for China’s economic growth.

China growth, Europe, UnitedHealth in focus
5 min ago

Oil falls on thoughts of less global demand
8 min ago

South African rand drops to 3-year low
17 min ago

Dollar rises ahead of Eurogroup meeting
23 min ago

Gold, silver retreat as U.S. dollar gains
7:16 a.m.

Europe stocks drop with Greece, Spain in focus
7:09 a.m.

U.S. stock futures down with China, QE3 in focus
6:36 a.m.

Asia stocks weighed down by resource sector
6:32 a.m.

Stocks to watch Monday: Affymetrix, Celadon Group
6:22 a.m.

Miners, banks weigh in downbeat U.K. market
3:48 a.m.

Gold, oil futures sharply lower in Europe trading
3:23 a.m.

Banks weigh on European stocks
12:32 a.m.

Foxconn says no work stoppages at iPhone factory
Oct. 7

World Bank cuts China’s growth estimate to 7.7%

Comment by Martin
2012-10-08 06:43:26

I’m thinking that after US elections, the bubble economies would be in a freefall. All they can do is print more but the setiment is gone. Printing is not going to help now.

What would China do with its Ghost towns in China and many of these they built in Africa. The demand for Ore from Australia is going to be cut down drastically taking Australia’s boom of 15 years down.

 
 
Comment by azdude
2012-10-08 06:41:15

Time to fire up printing press.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 05:59:44

U.S. Stock Futures Fall Before European Officials Meets
By Rita Nazareth - Oct 8, 2012 5:30 AM PT

U.S. stock futures fell, following last week’s rally in benchmark indexes, as European finance ministers prepared to meet to discuss the region’s debt crisis.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) and Monsanto Co. (MON) each retreated 1.4 percent to pace declines among the biggest companies. KeyCorp (KEY), Ohio’s second-largest bank, decreased 1.2 percent after Deutsche Bank AG reduced its recommendation for the shares. Netflix Inc. (NFLX), the world’s largest video-subscription service, advanced 6.4 percent after being raised at Morgan Stanley.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in December lost 0.4 percent to 1,450.10 at 8:29 a.m. New York time. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid 47 points, or 0.4 percent, to 13,489. The number of shares changing hands in Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s companies was 28 percent above the 30-day average at this time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Eyes are on the pressure the Spanish government will likely get to stop playing games on the day the Europeans are supposed to roll out their new bailout toy,” Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, wrote. “Greece will be the other story as it seems they will get further leeway from their sugar daddies who will never get paid back all of what’s owed to them but for now will pretend to.”

European finance ministers meet in Luxembourg today to discuss Spain’s overhaul effort and closer banking cooperation, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits Greece tomorrow for the first time since the crisis erupted. The World Bank said policy makers in Asia’s emerging economies have room to provide more fiscal stimulus as China’s slowdown drags the region’s growth to an estimated 11-year low in 2012.

Comment by azdude
2012-10-08 06:39:21

LOCK had a nice IPO last week.

 
Comment by Martin
2012-10-08 06:44:27

They are under pressure from the WH to prolong it till the end of US elections. After the elections, free fall is coming.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 07:57:53

Would that be a good time for dips to buy? Or more of a good time to catch yourself a falling knife?

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 12:10:59

They are under pressure from the WH to prolong it till the end of US elections.

The WH does not control the world economy or really not even much the American economy in short/medium term.

Also, if the PTB wanted Obama out, why would they want to prolong the status quo until after the elections?

Comment by Martin
2012-10-08 15:03:22

WH does not control, but has influence.
They have been working hard with EU to keep printing and Spain or any other country should not default.
They have been working hard here at home to keep UE rate down on paper, keep housing propped up and telling Companies to stop issuing layoff notices until elections. Why would they do it if they don’t have some influence?

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 11:56:14

Anyone who believes they understand why the U.S. stock market does not tank, despite massive, ongoing stock fund withdrawals, please share your insights.

The Buzz
All markets and investing news all the time
Stock exodus continues as investors yank $5.1 billion out
By Maureen Farrell October 4, 2012: 12:45 PM ET

The stock market keeps going up, and investors keep cashing out.

Mutual fund investors pulled $5.1 billion out of U.S. stock mutual funds for the week ended Sept. 26. The prior week, investors removed $4.8 billion from these funds, according to data from the Investment Company Institute.

The exodus from the stock market has picked up speed since the Federal Reserve announced another round of quantitative easing, or QE3.

By buying more bonds, the Federal Reserve is hoping to push investors into riskier investments like stocks. This has succeeded on one front by boosting stock prices, but investors continue to flee the stock market.

All three major stock indexes have seen double-digit growth this year, and the S&P 500 (SPX) has gained 16%.

The total 2012 outflow from U.S. mutual funds is roughly $93 billion. By comparison, those funds lost around $67 billion during the first nine months of 2010, and $83 billion during the first nine months of 2011.

While bailing out of stocks, investors continue to plow into bonds. Bond funds raked in $8.8 billion during the week ended Sept. 26, up from $8 billion the previous week.

Meanwhile, the ICI data showed that hybrid funds, which invest in both stocks and bonds, also saw an exodus of $377 million. Investors had been increasing their hybrid holdings during the previous weeks.

CNNMoney’s Hibah Yousuf contributed to this report

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2012-10-08 12:12:25

While bailing out of stocks, investors continue to plow into bonds. Bond funds raked in $8.8 billion during the week ended Sept. 26, up from $8 billion the previous week.

Heh, wait ’til interest rates start to rise.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 13:50:53

“Heh, wait ’til interest rates start to rise.”

Not scheduled to happen until 2015, with the option to delay further if perceived necessary to rescue the economy…

Fed Dearler Survey Projects Rate Increase in 2015

By Caroline Salas Gage on October 05, 2012

Primary dealers saw the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate in the second half of 2015 in a survey conducted by the central bank before the Sept. 12-13 policy meeting.

The median respondent in the survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York saw the central bank increasing interest rates in the third quarter of 2015, up from the first quarter of 2015 in the survey conducted before the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 31-Aug. 1 meeting.

Fed officials extended their horizon for low interest rates through at least the middle of 2015 in a statement after their meeting in Washington. They also announced a third round of asset purchases, saying they’d buy $40 billion of mortgage- backed securities each month.

Bond dealers saw a 65 percent chance the Fed would expand its balance sheet through securities purchases at that FOMC meeting, according to the median response from results updated on Sept. 11. They also saw 80 percent odds the FOMC would change its forward guidance on the path of interest rates.

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Comment by Combotechie
2012-10-08 06:02:11

Q. What’s the value of a gallon of spring water?

A. It depends on the conditions. If you are next to a freely-flowing mountian spring then conditions will suggest that the value approaches zero. If you are stranded in the middle of a desert then the value may approach infinity.

Q. What’s the value of a dollar?

A. It depends on the conditions. If it is the year 2005 when a strawberry picker can borrow six-hundred thousand of these dollars with just his signature then the value of the dollar isn’t all that high.
If it is the year 2012 and an college graduate will work two or three ten-dollar-an-hour jobs just to get a few dollars so as he can somehow get by financially then I’d have to say that the value of the dollar must be quite high.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 06:25:17

If it is the year 2012 and an college graduate will work two or three ten-dollar-an-hour jobs just to get a few dollars so as he can somehow get by financially then I’d have to say that the value of the dollar must be quite high.

Indeed. Therefore spend wisely and DO NOT borrow.

Comment by Martin
2012-10-08 07:04:59

One thing I don’t understand is why the Smart Financial folks at Banks etc. do not promote savings by people. Savings would help people and the country. It would promote a better behavior in terms of spending and borrowing less.

But they keep on touting that consumers have to spend as it is 70% consumer based economy. Fine, who ultimately benefits from spending and borrowing? Ones touting for it and not the common man.

Comment by vinceinwaukesha
2012-10-08 07:45:03

“One thing I don’t understand is why the Smart Financial folks at Banks etc. do not promote savings by people.”

Nobody gets a commission on a savings account deposit, or even selling a CD at 0.01%, but the commission on mortgage selling is extremely high for what little they do.

I have to think about this, but my gut level assumption is the only reason savings accounts exist is banks make money when people segregate their money into a savings account incorrectly thus bounce checks. Without enormous, spectacular bounced check fees I’m pretty much thinking savings accounts would not be permitted in the financial market. Nobody would offer them and any bank daring to do so would get crushed. One of those strange unintended consequence situations; govt ban on usurious bounced check fees results in no more savings accounts.

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Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 10:08:58

Seems like rather convoluted reasoning.

The correct answer was “churn”. As you said, “There are no fees to me made on savings accounts.”

 
Comment by SF Bay Area
2012-10-08 10:55:38

Bingo! Ecofeco has shown you the light. You are just a revenue stream. The more debt created the bigger the revenue stream. Never borrow for consumption unless it is for a necessary tool like education that will *pay for itself* quickly. Otherwise starve the beast.

 
 
Comment by rms
2012-10-08 18:40:40

“Savings would help people and the country. It would promote a better behavior in terms of spending and borrowing less.”

Man, you need a serious caning by Lawrence Summers.

Corporate profits now depend on sub-prime consumers buying chit they don’t need, with government guaranteed credit, paying inflated prices, and when it all fails the savers are handily tapped for the losses. Crony Capitalism.

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Comment by rms
2012-10-08 18:31:09

“…and DO NOT borrow.”

+1 Totally on-board with this thinking!

 
 
Comment by Albuqueruqedan
2012-10-08 07:03:20

January 2009, 1 dollar could buy about one gallon of crude oil, today it can buy less than half that amount, I would say the value of the dollar is very low, now.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 07:12:12

August 2008, 1 dollar could buy about 0.28 gals of crude oil, today it can buy almost twice that amount or 0.47 gals of crude oil, I would say the value of the dollar is very higher now.

See how that works?

Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 07:37:29

True, but I think that its safe to say that a dollar was worth a lot more 40 years ago than today. Sure, the value zig zags over near term, but the long term trend is one of depreciation.

Big depreciation.

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Comment by Albuqueruqedan
2012-10-08 07:39:53

And that lasted about a month by the end of the year they were in the low 30s. Oil prices were about $10 in 1999 and now they are about $110, so over any reasonable time period the dollar has dropped like a stone, since the creation of the federal reserve. See how that works?

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 07:46:28

You don’t suppose increasing crude demand has anything to do with it do you?? Naaaah…. couldn’t be!

http://kr.nlh1.com/images/201101/GlobalOilDemand.jpg

 
Comment by albuqueruqedan
2012-10-08 09:28:27

You will see a similar graph for supply. Of course, supply and demand impacts price. However, before the creation of the Federal Reserve the dollar retained its purchasing power over long periods of time. Since its creation, the dollar has lost 95% plus and that lost accelerated after we went off the gold standard.
If you now know when the governement is going to print money you can make lots of money. Crony capitalism relies on the Federal Reserve. The rich and the poor have been helped by the printing of money. The rich due to the inflation of their stock holdings etc. The poor because the hand outs have been maintained with the cheap printed money. The middle class has been crushed, as I predicted when the printing first started. Opposed it under Bush II and Obama too.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 09:38:38

I’m certain there are much better ways to demonstrate how corrupt the Fed is than your crude oil example.

But frankly, if you dollars are so worthless you’re welcome to send them my way.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 10:05:55

He never said they were “worthless”, just that they were depreciating.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 10:12:50

ok.

If you dollars are so “very low”, you’re welcome to send them my way.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 11:26:32

Why would I do that? Are you some kind of con man?

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 11:39:00

You got a frog in your pocket or are kids pissing on you again?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 12:34:55

Neither, a con man was asking me to send him my money. Are you in Nigeria by any chance?

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 13:54:46

1st Straw Man. 2nd- Ad hominem. Thus irrelevant.

Snort

 
 
 
Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 10:11:31

Why the labyrinth of reasoning?

Just go here: http://www.halfhill.com/inflation.html

 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 12:24:54

Q. What’s the value of a gallon of spring water?

During a drought when people are dying of thirst?

Storekeeper Obama’s Answer:
(Reading from his prepared notes) “Let me be clear……This is an emergency. The water is “free”. You all can pay me something later if we live, but every gallon has to be divided into quarts and shared with others. If someone is caught stealing someone’s water my stock boys will blow your f*&#&ng heads off with their shotguns.

Storekeeper Romney’s Answer:
(Wild eyed and coke faced) “The socialists caused this drought. Every gallon of water will go to the highest bidder. If any deadbeat victim interferes with this free-market by attempting to redistribute water, my stock boys will blow your f*&#&ng head off.”

 
 
Comment by Ryan
2012-10-08 06:08:26

Amazing to see; people touting the 7.8% unemployment rate in the legacy media. Clearly the same people who don’t understand participation rates. As participation rates drop, we are heading back towards 60% participation, last seen in the 50’s.

Remember the 50’s (before my time)? Back when one income could support a whole family? No wonder the participation rate was so low. Anybody think that 60% participation will provide the same living standard for one income families?

Couple this with the structural change in the work force. Mainly, the larger percentage of retiring workers and technology replacing personnel; and the future doesn’t look so bright.

Comment by azdude
2012-10-08 06:36:56

once they drop off the roles they are a ghost. they can get 200 in food stamps though.

 
Comment by Martin
2012-10-08 06:45:38

7.8% UE rate. I can predict it will be 7.6% in the UE report just before the elections in November.

Comment by Bad Andy
2012-10-08 07:34:26

Chicago math seems just as fuzzy as W math.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 07:38:41

Politico math.

It’s so simple, only a crook can do it.

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Comment by redrum
2012-10-08 07:47:09

> Remember the 50’s (before my time)? Back when one income
> could support a whole family? No wonder the participation rate
> was so low.Anybody think that 60% participation will provide the
> same living standard for one income families?

~1200sq ft house. 1 car. 1 tv. No cable, no cell phone, no internet. Rarely eating out.

Yep, should provide about the same standard of living…

 
Comment by vinceinwaukesha
2012-10-08 07:53:08

Meta discussion about the legacy media… they make more money the closer a political race appears to be by increased ad sales. The ignorant masses think a low unemployment rate is good, therefore intensively reporting a low one is good for incumbent. This implies the legacy media holds a fairly negative opinion of Mr Obama’s campaign, they need to help him out to get the polls closer to 50:50 to maximize political advertising revenue. That’s a very interesting data point.

I don’t have a dog in the fight, I’m voting Johnson, this is not stealth Rmoney astroturfing / bragging.

Comment by Ryan
2012-10-08 16:53:40

Agreed. They should hold a negative opinion of his campaign. Pretty hard to hold him in a positive light, he can’t exactly run on his record over the last 4 years.

As you are aware, the legacy media needs to be taken with a grain of salt, they are all owned by a handful of corporations….they are profit driven, not truth driven.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 08:03:41

Please check your facts before posting.

Clearly the same people who don’t understand participation rates. As participation rates drop, we are heading back towards 60% participation, last seen in the 50’s.”

Jay Bookman
With 200,000 new jobs, jobless rate falls to 7.8%
8:58 am October 5, 2012

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent in September after a gain of 114,000 jobs. That’s the lowest jobless rate in 44 months.

The fall in the jobless rate was accelerated by the discovery of 86,000 new jobs that had gone uncounted in July and August, for a total of 200,000 previously uncounted jobs.

That pattern suggests that September’s numbers may be revised upward as well. In an improving economy, as this one seems to be, monthly BLS stats typically undercount job creation because jobs appear in places they weren’t necessarily looking.

Moreover, the sharp decline in the unemployment rate is NOT due to a decline in those in the workforce. To the contrary, the BLS reports, “The civilian labor force rose by 418,000 to 155.1 million in September.”

Comment by Ryan
2012-10-08 16:03:55

Why aren’t my responses showing up?

Comment by Ryan
2012-10-08 16:48:57

What a load of BS, I can’t add links to articles that refute this glossed over nonsense that the cantankerous one has posted?

Listen if you believe this and then on to claim to be an intellectual, we as a society are worse off than I thought. You really need to take the time to understand the structure behind the calculation of unemployment.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 19:17:06

Dude — if you faithfully read my posts over the past three years, you would have seen numerous ones that made the exact same point you tried to make, including mathematical details.

However, you tried to ascribe the drop in unemployment rate to the discouraged worker effect. Despite the Republican propaganda brigade’s similar efforts, the data suggests otherwise: The drop in unemployment was enough to offset an increase in the labor force.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2012-10-08 08:50:56

I read a suggestion where the metric should be “Payroll to Population”.

That would clearly convey the employment situation with no need for guesswork (or manipulation).

 
Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 10:28:22

U3 vs U6.

The U3 is the one cited in MSM. The U6 takes into account the gray areas of underemployment and participation dropout.

Even the current U6 has improved.

 
Comment by 2banana
2012-10-08 10:41:05

It is true - but with many exceptions in the 1950s.

Average family owned zero or 1 car.
Average family had a small 3 bedroom house with 1.5 bath or rented
Average family vacation was a trip to see Uncle Joe near the beach
Average family kitchen had 2 appliances - and not even stainless steel
Average family had 1 home phone and a radio
Average family went out zero times a week to eat out

Now compare to what we think the “average family” on 2012 should be like - especially on TV.

Remember the 50’s (before my time)? Back when one income could support a whole family? No wonder the participation rate was so low. Anybody think that 60% participation will provide the same living standard for one income families?

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 10:51:10

Average family never traveled by air
Average family owned a small black-and-white TV w/o cable
Average family had no computer, no handhelds, no wireless service, no internet connectivity, no social network capability, etc

Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 11:25:05

In the mid1960s we had:

A 1600 square foot house in Fountain Valley, CA
2 cars (my dad had a 1964 Impala SS and my mom drove a 1960 Chevy station wagon)
1 color and 1 b/w TV
My dad had 2 stereo systems (1 was in a console, one was modular)
My first airplane trip was in 1966, on the now defunct Western Airlines.
While we kids didn’t come along for the ride, my parents did go out for dinner occasionally.

My dad was a tool and die maker.

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Comment by rms
2012-10-08 19:16:48

“Average family…”

Man, the fifties conjures up images of Elvis, Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens, The Everly Brothers, etc., trying to snap a moribund population out of the “one position in the dark with that woolly patch” creationism. Thankfully the baby-boomers pulled it off a decade later!

 
 
 
Comment by frankie
2012-10-08 06:12:14

MADRID: Thousands of Spaniards marched in cities across the country on Sunday to decry tough austerity measures, part of a growing protest movement that shows no signs of abating and could culminate in a general strike in November.

Hundreds of thousands of Spaniards have taken to the streets in near-daily protests over the past few months, creating a headache for the centre-right government as it faces regional elections and tries to assure investors the country is stable.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-1-136361-Spain-faces-fresh-street-protests

Euro zone finance ministers will launch their 500 billion euro (406 billion pounds) permanent bailout fund on Monday, putting in place a major defence against the debt crisis that now threatens Spain.

The fund, called the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), will be used to lend to distressed euro zone sovereigns in return for strict fiscal and structural reforms that aim to put economies that have lost investor trust back on track.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/10/08/uk-eurogroup-idUKBRE89709B20121008

Still there’s always the football to take your mind of it.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 10:10:28

Still there’s always the football to take your mind of it.

In that regard, we Americans are “luckier”, as we have multiple professional sports to distract us:

Baseball
Basketball
Hockey
Professional American Football
Collegiate American Football

We even have a soccer (football) league now.

Throw in a few choice TV shows (American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, etc.) and Joe Six Pack can remain in a blissful stupor … until his job is offshored and he’s laid off.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 06:13:27

BUSINESS
October 4, 2012, 2:12 p.m. ET

Fannie’s, Freddie’s Wooing of Private Investors Hits Delay

By AL YOON And ALAN ZIBEL

Federal officials are running into an unexpected roadblock as they try to bring private money back to a U.S. mortgage market now dominated by the government.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, (FMCC -0.77%) the government-controlled mortgage finance giants, were supposed to issue a new class of mortgage securities by the end of September, according to plans set by their regulator. But they missed this goal, partly because it became clear that new regulations governing interest-rate swaps under the Dodd-Frank Act were complicating the debt offering, according to people with knowledge of those plans.

The new securities, known as risk-sharing bonds, would offer investors a higher yield than standard mortgage bonds in return for bearing losses should loans go bad. For private investors, that would increase the risk but also the reward from the current system, in which the two taxpayer-supported firms guarantee that investors receive payments even when borrowers default.

If investors feel comfortable with taking on this kind of risk, especially as home prices start to rise, it could help accelerate the process of shifting responsibility for U.S. mortgage funding away from taxpayer-supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

But if these debt securities fall under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—because the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul gave the regulator broad new powers to police swaps trading—Fannie and Freddie could face additional compliance responsibilities and costs. Risk-sharing bonds may be structured with a synthetic contract linking them to the performance of loans backing another security, rather than a traditional swap, but such contracts could fall under the CFTC’s expanded reach, the same people said.

That in turn could become the latest roadblock to restarting the virtually dormant market for private mortgage-backed securities without federal guarantees.

Denise Dunckel, a spokeswoman for the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said figuring out how the securities will work has been complex. “We are moving forward steadily and expect to continue making progress in the coming months,” she said.

Spokesmen for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Treasury Department, which together with the FHFA helped develop the plans for the new securities, and the CFTC declined to comment.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 06:33:42

R. Shiller summarizes the delusional thinking of the public regarding housing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/07/business/housing-fever-can-work-both-ways.html?_r=0

You’ll get hosed on housing. DO NOT buy housing.

Comment by Albuqueruqedan
2012-10-08 07:10:51

Ultimately, housing prices are a function of rent prices. The board was right in 2006 when it pointed out that housing prices were out of line compared to rent prices. The last time the Economist magazine examined it around june or july they founds that housing prices were 19% too low based on rent prices. The CPI rent rates have rising since then but prices have gone up even more so I do not know the present difference. However, I always find in investing that people saying “it is different this time” is a a major red flag. So unless people can explain what is going to crash rents, I do not see a significant fall in house prices.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 07:26:37

“Ultimately, housing prices are a function of rent prices.”

Not really but if you insist…… rent prices are a function of???? wages. Look no further than the fact that rental rates are falling broadly. Why? Because wages are falling and have been for a decade or more.

Housing costs are the price of M&L +profit and overhead. No more, no less.

Do you know what the M&L is to build a SFR?

Comment by Albuqueruqedan
2012-10-08 07:41:42

Please show me data that rental prices are falling like a stone. I have not seen that in the residential market as measured by the CPI.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 07:43:48

Falling like a stone? Who said that? You.

Rental rates are falling in the biggest cities…. LA, Chicago, Denver and even NYC. And it’s been posted here many times over the past 6 months.

Now answer the question…. Do you know what the M&L is to build a SFR?

 
Comment by Albuqueruqedan
2012-10-08 07:51:16

Just check the figures from August 2011 to August 2012 housing (which uses rents) rose 2.1%. That actually accelerated in August with a month to month rise of .2%. We will see when the numbers are released on October 16, I believe, whether that has turned around. Until it does cannot see how housing prices make a major drop.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 07:52:57

Nice duck and weave.

In the meantime rental rates continue to fall in major cities.

Now answer the question. What are M&L numbers to build a SFR?

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-10-08 09:19:09

What are M&L numbers to build a SFR?

Is the cost of the lot included in M?

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 09:28:51

It shouldn’t be.

 
Comment by Moman
2012-10-08 13:10:15

Rental prices are a lagging, sticky indicator. Based on recent news reports that apartment vacancies are rising, compounding with increased rental inventory likely means rental rates will start falling again soon. The already are in my neighborhood.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-10-08 17:07:55

Comment by alpha-slot: Is the cost of the lot included in M?

Comment by Pimp Watch: It shouldn’t be.

Then your equation is incorrect.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 17:46:05

I didn’t post an “equation”.

Fail.

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-10-08 18:38:38

Housing costs are the price of M&L +profit and overhead. No more, no less.

That’s not an equation?

Are you admitting it’s wrong?

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 19:29:57

You’re disputing it.

Let see it. Cmon now.

 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 07:34:13

So unless people can explain what is going to crash rents ??

Increase in supply, a deeper recession or both…

Comment by Albuqueruqedan
2012-10-08 07:55:03

Supply would have to increase faster than demand and there is nothing to suggest that. During the bubble we were creating close to 2 million units a year, even with increased building, we are now producing .75 million. Bulls say we need 1.5 million units a year. I actually say that is bull given the aging population, so I think 1 million is the actual number. However, that still reduces the shadow inventory by .25 million a year, neglect is taking even more out of the inventory.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 07:59:40

Why would supply have to increase at all considering there are 20-30 million excess empty housing units in the US today?

 
Comment by albuqueruqedan
2012-10-08 09:41:15

Can you actually buy them? People that are actually trying to buy houses are not finding this oversupply. If the houses are not where people actually want to live, they are next to useless. The subprime money lead to a lot of houses in places that make no economic sense and where people do not want to live. Houses are being built where people want to live but at a very reasonable rate of building.

Besides since the banks have kept them off the market when they were falling in value, why would they now cut their own throats and dump them now that they are going up in value?

No, it is even easier for banks to manipulate the release of any useful inventory and I cannot see them releasing too fast.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 09:48:09

People that are actually trying to buy houses are not finding this oversupply.

“Trying”? Is it really that hard in a sea of 140 million houses in the US? Seriously Dan….

why would they now cut their own throats and dump them now that they are going up in value?

Why would they hold them when they’re depreciating?

I cannot see them releasing too fast.

Whether you can “see” it or that it does/doesn’t make sense to you is irrespective to the point that there are 20-30 million excess empty housing units.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 09:57:47

“Why would they hold them when they’re depreciating?”

Housing market target of Federal Reserve stimulus effort

Business First by Evan Weese, Web coordinator
Date: Friday, October 5, 2012, 7:13am EDT

Chairman Ben Bernanke launched another round of bond buying at the Sept. 12-13 Fed meeting.

Chairman Ben Bernanke launched another round of bond buying at the Sept. 12-13 Fed meeting.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 12-13 meeting show members have considered connecting any increase in interest rates to a specific economic indicator, like unemployment, to give a clearer signal to the public as to when it might start raising rates.

The minutes also show the latest stimulus program is based on the purchase of mortgage bonds, aimed at boosting the housing recovery, Associated Press reports.

The Fed said it would keep short-term interest rates near zero until mid-2015.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 09:58:55

If the houses are not where people actually want to live, they are next to useless.

Exactly. A glut of houses in Vegas, Tucson or Tampa doesn’t help a couple with 200K+ in combined income find a place in Silicon Valley.

No, it is even easier for banks to manipulate the release of any useful inventory and I cannot see them releasing too fast.

And as long as they have ZIRP, the houses will remain in the shadow inventory.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 10:10:56

A glut of houses in Vegas, Tucson or Tampa doesn’t help a couple with 200K+ in combined income find a place in Silicon Valley.

What do you call cherry picking a single area experiencing uncharacteristically high levels of speculation/fraud/graft while ignoring three large cities?

 
Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 10:12:13

If the houses are not where people actually want to live, they are next to useless ??

You mean like Chowchilla California ??

 
Comment by Moman
2012-10-08 13:13:11

Dan,

My investor friends are chomping at the bit to unload their investor flipper properties. They all believe prices will keep rising too, so it doesn’t make sense. I think they’re just trying to lock in gains because they don’t have confidence in the future.

 
Comment by rms
2012-10-08 19:38:01

“You mean like Chowchilla California ??”

+1 ROTFLMAO!

Years ago I was driving north on the 99, and I pulled off at a “rest stop” as nature was calling. The police were everywhere, and the men’s restroom was closed-off with yellow Crime Tape. A day later the Modesto paper ran a story about an off-duty policeman being robbed at knife point, but the cop was armed, so it didn’t go off as expected.

 
 
 
Comment by rms
2012-10-08 19:21:57

“Ultimately, housing prices are a function of rent prices.”

Not if the mortgage bankers, the home builders and the realtors can lobby the congress to subsidize the lenders with easy money.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2012-10-08 07:17:29

I can summarize his summary; we don’t really know what a mania is made of or where it will lead. You can’t, because it’s not in one person or even group of people.

Last night I watched an old travel show, from Ireland/N Ireland back in 2004-06. They said stuff like, everybody’s making money, look at all the cranes, Dublin is going to take its place among European capital cities, Celtic Tiger! They showed several new expensive restaurants; Ireland’s taste in food was changing, they even suggested the conflict between Protestant and Catholic had been soothed because ‘everyone could buy a house and have a good job.’

It was interesting because it was like a time capsule. I think we forget the raw energy of the mania. Like when I went to Sedona AZ from Texas in 2004. You could cut the excitement with a knife. People told me, ‘my house is going up $10,000 a month.’ I asked, how long do you think that can go on? A pause, then ‘forever.’

Of course, we all know stories like this. But does every phase of a bubble look like this? No, because I also visited Sedona in 2003 and it was some other, earlier condition of mania. There was a lot of construction in Sedona, but no one I knew expected prices to rise in Cornville, or Cottonwood. When I came back in 2004, Cornville was the place to invest! Giant housing tracts were going up, and I learned later, people were camping out to buy, pre-construction.

And of course, there was the refinancing. Serial refinancing; then buying more land or houses, along with a new car.

Somewhere in all this, is insanity. Walking, talking, delusional; a simultaneous insanity of millions of people. How does it start, when does it end? Is it over in Ireland. Or Arizona? I can only look at the things that caught my eye in the first place. From the article:

‘Home prices in the United States have been rising for several months, and that is generating some optimism that now is the time to buy…Will optimism about real estate emerge as a leading story?’

Comment by vinceinwaukesha
2012-10-08 08:08:21

Thank you for your blog, sir.

“How does it start”

I’m thinking probably not with collapsing labor force participation rate and rapid inflation in everything but wages…

“I watched an old travel show”

Sounds like the PBS Rick Steves show I watched a while back. That’s a show thats been around before, during, and presumably will be around long after the bubble. In his oldest european tour videos its all scenes like poor Spanish villages with two hungry donkeys and a leaky canoe and endless commentary about how cheap everything is, the bubble-lishious videos are all condos, cranes, traffic jams, ultra conspicuous consumption and endless commentary about how expensive and busy the tourist traps have become, I haven’t seen his most recent videos but I’m betting “Rick Steves tours Greece 2012″ is how to dodge molotovs and self treatment of tear gas inhalation and endless commentary of how not to get caught in a riot.

Comment by Ben Jones
2012-10-08 09:04:31

‘I’m thinking probably not with collapsing labor force participation rate and rapid inflation in everything but wages’

I’m not suggesting we are at the beginning of a bubble, but somewhere else along the line. Think back to the period after the dotcom bust. Wasn’t unemployment a problem? Lots of wiped out ‘wealth’? This bring up CIBT’s point below; policy actions.

If you read ‘Greenspans Bubbles’ by William Fleckenstein, it becomes clear that the Federal Reserve actively encouraged the stock bubble. We all remember the race to the bottom in lending from 2003 and onward. As each group of borrowers was exhausted, new ways to create buyers were invented. All to keep the mania alive. We can debate how intentional it was; were regulators/central bankers simply caught up in the euphoria, or desperate to fend off a collapse? Either way, complacency didn’t serve us well.

So where are we now? I think it’s instructive to remember Australia, China, Canada and Europe saw signs of a bubble collapse in 2005-06. Each sought to keep the party going; some used massive stimulus, rates cuts, lower reserve requirements, bailouts, with different outcomes. Spain, Ireland are plunging lower to this day. China, Australia and Canada went well above the old peaks.

IMO, it’s impossible to know what will happen exactly. We aren’t studying in a lab or test tube, but observing the actions of millions of participants. It does help to recall that there were twin stock and real estate bubbles, in multiple countries. It should be mentioned this happened in Japan. What that means, I don’t know, but it has to mean something.

For me, like 2004 or 2005, it is a time to not get swept up with emotion. Read between the lines of what the govt/media are putting out. And most of all, think for myself. Because if you find yourself surrounded by millions of delusional people, added by complacent policy makers, it isn’t easy to see what’s real.

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Comment by azdude
2012-10-08 09:34:00

I remember we talked about the price of lots in sedona back in 2004 and just laughed.Greed is a powerful emotion.

With the jobs leaving the US the economy has to be kept afloat in other ways. Stock and home price gains were making up the difference for awhile.

I notice that people are opening shops up specializing in chinese imports. whole stores with nothing but made in china stickers. They mark it up and generate some sales tax. Most of the stuff is in landfill within a year, sad.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 09:49:22

I notice that people are opening shops up specializing in chinese imports.

I though WalMart already did that?

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 11:50:51

Because if you find yourself surrounded by millions of delusional people, added by complacent policy makers, it isn’t easy to see what’s real.

You have a number of them right here on this blog.

What else besides delusion would make people pay an inflated price for what is always a depreciating asset after years of reading on the blog…..

 
Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-10-08 17:16:30

What else besides delusion would make people pay an inflated price for what is always a depreciating asset after years of reading on the blog…..

Why were you house-hunting a year ago?

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-09 09:13:00

What does that have to do with someone else paying an grossly inflated price for a rapidly depreciating asset?

Do keep up Alphi.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 10:01:13

I visited Spain before the bubble (in 1994) and I thought it was expensive back then.

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Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 08:12:34

“How does it start,…”

One possible explanation:

September 13th, 2012 12:59 PM ET
25 days ago
Fed announces election year stimulus
Posted by CNNMoney.com’s Annalyn Censky

(CNNMoney) - The Federal Reserve announced plans to unleash more stimulus Thursday, in its third attempt at a controversial program to rev up the U.S. economy.

The policy, known as quantitative easing and often abbreviated as QE3, entails buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. The end date remains up in the air, as the Fed will re-evaluate the strength of the economy in coming months.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 08:20:07

When you think about it, it’s easier to blow bubbles than to build a real economy. The latter requires blood, sweat and tears, not to mention deferring rewards.

It’s so much more fun to “have your house work for you” while you choose a new 40K SUV to take home.

Long term consequences? Who worries about that? In the long run, we’re all dead.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 08:22:33

You could cut the excitement with a knife.

Great characterization as it succinctly describes the aura and atmosphere we observed in the mid-atlantic area.

I fondly remember 1999 working in Manhattan (cha-ching) for the frenzy feel good time that it was. Everyone was in NASDAQ and everyone was talking about it. At work, at lunch, on the subway, all day. It was like everyone was doing lines…. everyone. Everyone was making money including yours truly. 2004-2006 was very similar except we were on the outside with a more objective view even though we were looking through a lens that obscured a bit due to our own perceptions. In retrospect, the similarities between those two events and how the public reacted to them are stunningly similar. Party like there is no tomorrow.

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2012-10-08 06:35:31

“How much do you want for that Pet Rock you have in the display window?”

“Five million dollars.”

“What? Five million dollars! You are crazy. Nobody in their right mind will pay you that.”

“You may be rignt, but I only need to find one customer who is not in their right mind and I will be set for life.”

Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 06:41:49

But if you tell everyone that “it’s an investment” and “it’s very ‘expensive’ to make” and “we’re running out of Pet Rocks” and “borrowing rocks is a ripoff”, you’ll have plenty buyers at that price…… even though none of those things are true.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 09:46:47

Actually, I think it would be “expensive” to make a rock. Of course, mother nature made plenty of them over the eons, so you don’t really need to make one since they are literally laying on the ground.

 
 
Comment by Overtaxed
2012-10-08 06:57:35

Kind of the “Rolex” model, isn’t it? Charge 1000X and hope you can get some people to bite, if you can, you’ve don’t need a lot of fish, just some really big ones to feed the family.

 
 
Comment by Lip
2012-10-08 06:54:39

Signs accumulate that liberals are embarrassed by Obama

Having invested themselves in the illusion of him as the fulfillment of the liberal dream of shattering glass ceilings and pernicious racial stereotypes, his evident lack of preparation felt like a betrayal to some. They are starting to catch on that they bought into an illusion. So they are turning on him.

Lurking in the background is the specter of becoming a laughingstock. James Taranto, in a brilliant WSJ column, invokes the ultimate peril: becoming like George Costanza of Seinfeld. Describing Obama’s attempt the day after the debate to supply adequate rejoinders:

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/10/signs_accumulate_that_liberals_are_embarrassed_by_obama.html#ixzz28iPzNq15

Seinfeld, the Jerkstore
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwfioD-ING8

So have any of our progressive thinkers come to this conclusion yet? Your Prez doesn’t even appear to want the job anymore.

Comment by aNYCdj
2012-10-08 09:32:51

I’m embarrassed for him because well he could talk to black people…I guess not….so his legacy is the death of political correctness and when white folk tell black folks what they need to do…its not racist anymore its tough love….

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 12:54:32

…its not racist anymore its tough love….

American racism is still a huge issue and national embarrassment.

Racism is more subtle, but remains alive and well in 2012
Even after one term, President Obama deals with it without even being able to acknowledge it.

http://www.pressherald.com/opinion/racism-is-more-subtle-but-remains-alive-and-well-in-2012_2012-09-26.html

This is for Vanessa in South Florida.

She emailed me a few days ago after spotting a bumper sticker that read: 2012 Don’t Re-Nig.

“Honestly,” she wrote, “I don’t know how to process my outrage, so I’m handing it off to you. I know that President Obama’s race has always been an issue to many people, and perhaps I live a relatively sheltered life in Democratic-leaning Broward County, but I’m still stunned by the sentiment. I’m even more stunned, naive though that may be, by the fact that some people believe it’s appropriate to flaunt that sentiment — and that it’s not a source of shame.”

Vanessa, I’m afraid I’m not nearly as shocked as you.

After all, the sentiment that that bumper sticker expresses has been part of the Obama narrative since before he took office.

 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 12:48:01

Your Prez doesn’t even appear to want the job anymore.

That’s good because you can’t always get what you want.

Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 13:23:52

Your Prez doesn’t even appear to want the job anymore ??

And, if he doesn’t, IMO there is a core reason…

I personally thought that this mans election had put the Blackman race issue behind us…If we as a country can elect this man President then It appeared to me the southern confederacy ideology was dead and gone…

Far from it…It has come front and center into the msm through the likes of people like Trump & Gulliani just for starters..How these guys can get traction on what they have to say is unbelievable…All the dog whistles that I have seen over the past year now have me resigned to the fact that the bigotry in our country will never go away…

You don’t think that his wife and more importantly his two daughters don’t hear the “dog whistles” ?? These are disgusting men in a even more disgusting political party…

Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-10-08 13:48:35

Nice try. The 60’s called and they want their deck of race cards back.

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Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 13:55:22

Even worse are ones that claim it does not exist in their party…Because, that makes them both bigots & hypocrites…

 
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-10-09 00:11:13

Progressives love to revise history and they always fail to admit the ugly truth…you know what I am talking about…Southern Democrats were the racists.

I hate quoting web sources, but here is Wikipedia:

“Eugene Connor was a member of the Alabama Ku Klux Klan in the 1920s. Connor entered politics as a Democrat in 1934, winning a seat in the Alabama Legislature”

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-09 11:10:59

Progressives love to revise history and they always fail to admit the ugly truth…you know what I am talking about…Southern Democrats were the racists.

What’s the big deal to admit that?? I mean really. OK, here it is….I ADMIT it…… Southern Democrats WERE the racists. And now a heck of a lot of Republicans ARE he racists.

Dang….Like that was hard or something…

 
 
Comment by Lip
2012-10-08 14:11:19

Funny, all we do is disagree with his methods and his beliefs.

Most conservatives don’t think government can solve everything BUT INSTEAD think that it will most likely screw up just about anything it tries.

The color of his skin has nothing to do with it. Its useful for those that aren’t willing or aren’t capable of a logical disagreement.

By bringing up race, this is an indication that you’ve already lost the argument/discussion. It’s not race. It’s thoughts, methods and beliefs.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 15:02:05

By bringing up race, this is an indication that you’ve already lost the argument/discussion.

Racism is alive and well in America and is a factor in Obama’s re-election no matter your silly rules of bringing up what you don’t want to hear.

 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 14:39:25

All the dog whistles that I have seen over the past year now have me resigned to the fact that the bigotry in our country will never go away…

I agree, those on the right who say racism went away are either ignorant, liars or suffering from some kind of delusion.

It’s like saying there are no more apples.

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Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 15:08:10

I agree Rio…Just look at Nick & Lip’s response…Its always denial…

 
Comment by Lip
2012-10-08 15:23:17

I/We are not saying “there is no racism”.

There are racists on both sides, all sides and all colors.

Living in Birmingham in the early 80’s, I’ve had black parents that didn’t like me (cuz I’m white) and white parents that didn’t want me to date their daughter (cuz I’m an Yankee). (I got the heck out of there)

What I am saying is that there aren’t enough “real” racists out there to make a difference in the election. You are calling people like me racists because you can’t “logically”
accept the fact that someone disagrees with you.

Conservatives are evil racists but progressives are loving, kind and always right. Give me a break.

 
Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 15:32:22

You are calling people like me racists because you can’t “logically” accept the fact that someone disagrees with you ??

Bul$!&&………I am not calling you a racists at all although you could be…I am calling you a hypocrite though…Because, when the dog whistle blows, you deny by not acknowledging that it is what it is which then calls into question if in fact you are racists…

 
 
 
 
Comment by ahansen
2012-10-08 23:50:02

Lip,
The progressive movement disavowed Obama about the time he appointed Geithner and Summers and allowed Rick Warren to give the invocation at his inaugural. You’re a little late to the party– as it were.

 
 
Comment by Ross Peroxide
2012-10-08 07:22:00

Yeah China will bail them out.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)’s $5.8 billion trading loss this year showed that the financial system is getting too complicated for even respected institutions, the president of China’s sovereign-wealth fund said.

“You are creating a system that very few people understand, much less the regulators because the regulators haven’t the incentives like the bankers,” Gao Xiqing, president of China Investment Corp., said today at a lunch hosted by the Economic Club of New York. “As a former regulator I think we do need to slow down a little bit instead of rushing up to all those fancy derivatives.”

Gao, who said he was speaking in a personal capacity and not in his role at the CIC, said the loss attributed to a trader known as the London Whale was especially instructive because it happened at a bank he holds in high regard and wasn’t the result of a rogue employee. New York-based JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, lost the money because of derivatives held by its chief investment office.

“That single thing was most revealing to me at least because I respect this institution JPMorgan very much,” he said. “We believe in their risk management, we believe in the fact that they’re being cautious.”

He expressed concern about a society in which “all the best engineers are engineering financial products.”

“You have all the smartest kids to design these products, the only purpose of which is to get money out of other people’s pockets,” he said. “That is not very good.”

Gao said he tries to avoid relying on financial models in his own investments because he doesn’t trust them.

CIC is an investor in Morgan Stanley (MS), the sixth-biggest U.S. bank, which competes with JPMorgan.

Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 12:35:54

Engineer financial products?

BULLCRAP ALERT!

Translation: finding loopholes in existing regulations to create more sophisticated scams.

Just the hubris alone of “engineer financial…” is all the bullcrap alert anyone should need. You do not “engineer” abstract concepts that have no real physical existence.

What’s sad is that most people do not have enough education to understand even this simple misuse of definitions.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 07:29:17

The serial bottom callers’ chorus is singing the loudest I have ever heard lately.

US housing market emerging from slump
America’s housing market showed fresh signs of emerging from the slump that helped trigger the country’s worst recession since the 1930s, according to a new report.
There are signs that the US housing market has found a bottom.
There are signs that the US housing market has found a bottom.

By Richard Blackden
3:39PM BST 25 Sep 2012

Average home prices in the US were up 1.2pc in July compared with the same month in 2011, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. July’s reading was better than economists had forecast and improved on June’s 0.9pc increase.

The increase hardens hopes that after five years of declines US house prices are now beginning to climb off a bottom. The index, which measures prices in America’s 20 biggest cities and their surrounding areas, showed that 16 saw prices rise in July.

America’s battered housing market is receiving greater attention from officials at the Federal Reserve as they scour for new ways to ignite the country’s recovery. Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Fed, described a recovery in housing as being a “missing piston” as the central bank pledged to buy $40bn of debt a month backed by newly issued mortgages.

“All in all, we are more optimistic about housing,” said David Blitzer, who runs the S&P/Case-Shiller survey. “Stronger housing numbers are a positive for other measures including consumer confidence.”

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 07:44:08

OMG I just looked at the calendar and noticed what month it is — October — the month when the stock market normally goes DOWn.

Oct. 8, 2012, 8:20 a.m. EDT
Apple charts signal trouble ahead
By Dr. Alexander Elder and Kerry Lovvorn

Amid rosy scenarios, serious signs of trouble are developing on AAPL charts. There is also a major fundamental factor that indicates a much more bumpy road ahead.

Charts reflect buy and sell orders coming to the exchange from all market participants: big money and little money, insiders and outsiders, investors and traders. Their orders are behind ticks, which coalesce into patterns reflecting the sum total of current actionable knowledge about a stock.

Some patterns are noisy and have little value, while others have a good record of showing how a stock is likely to move in the near future. To help you review these patterns on AAPL (AAPL -2.19%) charts, please click on any chart below to see it in full size and color.

Comment by Albuqueruqedan
2012-10-08 08:08:51

From USA Today October 2, 2012.

But despite its inability to shake its reputation as the most likely period for stocks to plunge further and faster than the other 11 months of the year, October’s overall performance is not as bad as its mega drops would suggest. In the past 20 years, October is the third-best-performing month, posting average gains of 1.8% and finishing up 70% of the time, according to Bespoke Investment Group. It ranks seventh over the past 50 years and No. 8 in the last 100 years.

I don’t think it is the month. I do think it has to do with the success of Apple and the need by some to take capital gains prior to the rates possibly going up. With the election a toss up, amazing how the MSM polls are now close to Rasmussen, investors are selling while the rate is 15% before it rises to 20% or even more if you are a high income earner subject to the taxes of the ACA.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 10:09:26

OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.

- Pudd’nhead Wilson’s Calendar (Mark Twain)

 
 
 
Comment by Brett
2012-10-08 07:44:41

We just received orientation on employee benefits for 2013. Monthly MEDICAL employee contributions went up an outstanding 44.9% compared to 2012.

The maximum in-network out-of-pocket medical expenses went up exactly 50%!!!

BTW, AETNA is the provider…

Way to go OBAMACARE!

Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 07:49:05

Just invest in Austin condos because there are only 11 of them that exist on the planet.

Comment by Brett
2012-10-08 09:15:16

You’re silly

 
 
Comment by Ross Peroxide
2012-10-08 07:52:19

This is the conversation going to happen in most companies by election day. Right or wrong, Obamacare will be the culprit.

Comment by Lip
2012-10-08 11:04:39

Ross,

Is there a question about why? When you tell a company that they have to cover X, Y, & Z, PLUS you add a few questionable decisions, the insurance company has to raise their prices because they’re in business to make money.

Now government can promise anything because the costs don’t have to be contained AND you don’t have any profit motives.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 15:10:13

Right or wrong, Obamacare will be the culprit.

The “culprit” is the Republicans who refused to compromise at all on Obamacare. If the Repubs would have been involved in that bill it would have been a better bill IMO. But the dumb Repubs just took their dogmatic ball and ran home like a bunch of babies. Waaaaaaaa!

“No public option!! And keep the government out of my Medicare!!”

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 08:07:26

Monthly MEDICAL employee contributions went up an outstanding 44.9% compared to 2012.

Sounds like they passed the entire premium increase onto the employees at your company.

Anyway, as I have predicted more than once, unless healthcare costs are brought under control (and I doubt they will) in about 10 years almost no one will be able to afford insurance. The entire medical care system will collapse.

Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 08:23:11

I agree Colorado….Its easily IMO, the biggest issue facing our country…

 
Comment by Brett
2012-10-08 09:18:54

Don’t worry; we will bail them out!

 
 
Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-10-08 08:09:56

“Way to go OBAMACARE!”

But it`s not “OBAMACARE!”, it is called the Affordable Care Act.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 10:11:56

Don’t you just hate it when Uncle Sam tries his best to make something more ‘affordable,’ only to see the price of the thing (medical care, housing, college tuition, etc etc etc) SKYROCKET?

Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-10-08 11:22:11

published Monday, October 1st, 2012

Medicare to fine hospitals over readmitting patients

WASHINGTON — If you or an elderly relative has been hospitalized recently and noticed extra attention when the time came to be discharged, there’s more to it than good customer service.

As of today, Medicare will start fining hospitals that have too many patients readmitted within 30 days of discharge due to complications. The penalties are part of a broader push under President Barack Obama’s health care law to improve quality while also trying to save taxpayers money.

About two-thirds of the hospitals serving Medicare patients, or some 2,200 facilities, will be hit with penalties averaging around $125,000 per facility this coming year, according to government estimates.

http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2012/oct/01/medicare-to-fine-hospitals-over-readmitting-patien/ - 67k -

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2012-10-08 12:21:58

“As of today, Medicare will start fining hospitals that have too many patients readmitted within 30 days of discharge due to complications.”

The hospital staff (both medical and support folks) will simply be trained to input diagnosis and treatment and codes that suggest the patient is suffering from some new, unrelated problem.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 15:14:39

As of today, Medicare will start fining hospitals that have too many patients readmitted within 30 days of discharge

Those on the right scream cut cut cut!!! But the second something is “cut” by a Dem, you squeal like stuck pigs…..It’s funny…

“Cut spending and keep the government out of my Medicare!”

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 11:40:43

Is it “skyrocketing” any worse than before?

That said, I’d be OK with “Obamacare” being repealed as it was a half azzed compromise that doesn’t solve any problems. Then we can proceed unimpeded with our journey towards the collapse of our medical system, at which point we’ll have to start from scratch.

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Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 12:47:39

Sure… in about 2 generations.

Meanwhile, that’s 2 generations that will be dying early and miserable deaths for no damn good reason.

Do you really want that?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 13:13:19

I think the system will collapse in less than 10 years, as 15% annual premium increases, compounded, will soon make health insurance unaffordable for the general middle class.

We’ve gone through tricks to offset the premium increases. First it was “managed care”. Now it’s HD plans. After that there’s nothing left except to move to “savings plans”

In a way, we kind of are already on the “event horizon”, the breaking point for health insurance costs, with family plans costing $1000/month or more. Just for kicks I got a quote from one of the big providers for a non group plan for my family, it was about $1400 a month. Take that $1400/ month premium and with 15% annual increases it swells to $5600 a month in just 10 years. I doubt we’ll even get that far before it all comes crashing down.

 
 
Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 12:45:18

“Don’t you just hate it when Uncle Sam tries his best to make something more ‘affordable,’ only to see the price of the thing (medical care, housing, college tuition, etc etc etc) SKYROCKET?”

Yeah, because continued extortion is so much better. :roll:

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Comment by ahansen
2012-10-08 08:34:08

Welcome to the free market, Brett. Now you know what we private payers have been subsidizing for you all these years. But don’t fret, when the Obamacare exchanges kick in in 2014 the “health insurance” industry will go the way of Ma Bell. :-)

Comment by Brett
2012-10-08 09:16:49

But I was told that it would bring costs down… Are you implying politicians make up ‘projections’ to get legislation passed and they are not accountable?

Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 11:36:59

“But I was told that it would bring costs down”

Well, being that the parts of the legislation that are supposed to do that haven’t kicked in yet, I guess the jury is still out on that one.

That said, the rate of premiums increases remain at their historical levels.

What will happen as costs continue to rise is that the current trend of herding everyone into HD plans will continue. Once that’s done, we’ll see HD deductibles rise even more. Then employer provided insurance plans will be ditched altogether and will be replaced with “savings plans”. When we reach that milestone is when the system will collapse.

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Comment by polly
2012-10-08 15:14:59

Bringing costs down doesn’t mean it will bring YOUR costs down. If your company decides that it doesn’t need to pay for your health insurance to keep a qualified work force in place, it can decide to let you pay the entire amount. The company’s costs will go down.

And ahansen it right. The majority of the cost cutting measures aren’t in force yet, though some plans have had their costs go down as the under 26s (who are generally healthy) who are being added to their parent’s insurance are added to their risk pools.

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Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-10-08 13:53:05

“Obamacare exchanges kick in in 2014 the “health insurance” industry will go the way of Ma Bell.”

Keep tickling yourself with that idea. Just admit that you want hard working folks like me to pay for your “free” health care.

 
 
Comment by Montana
2012-10-08 08:42:11

Goody I can’t wait to see what happens at my company.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 09:36:48

Our open enrollment period is coming up soon as well.

Comment by Brett
2012-10-08 10:26:01

Keep us posted; I wonder if the same is happening across the board!

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Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-10-08 10:39:43

Dr. Barbara Bellar

“So let me get this straight. This is a long sentence.

We are going to be gifted with a health care plan that we are forced to purchase, and fined if we don’t, which reportedly covers 10 million more people without adding a single new doctor, but provides for 16,000 new IRS agents, written by a committee whose chairman doesn’t understand it, passed by Congress, that didn’t read it, but exempted themselves from it, and signed by a president who smokes, with funding administered by a treasury chief who didn’t pay his taxes, for which we will be taxed for four years before any benefits take effect, by a government which has bankrupted Social Security and Medicare, all to be overseen by a surgeon general who is obese and financed by a country that is broke.

So what the blank could possibly go wrong?”

 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-10-08 11:04:16

UNKNOWN TENANT , Best sentence of the month .

 
Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 12:57:14

I can live with the hyperbole, but there are several points that are flat out wrong.

For starters, SS and Medicare are NOT bankrupt. This is a lie perpetuated by special interest groups who are trying to make SS privatized for Wall St’s benefit and kept alive by people who don’t any better.

Second, if you already have insurance, then being fined is of no concern to you. The ONLY people at risk are those too poor or those few who can pay for medical care outright. Of the poor group, who are the majority of those affected, pools are being created for them participate in, up to and including, paying nothing because they are too poor.

 
Comment by Hi-Z
2012-10-08 13:21:18

“For starters, SS and Medicare are NOT bankrupt.”

Not bankrupt on paper, but the paper they hold is US Treasury IOUs. The trust fund money has long since been spent. They only way the US can get the money to pay benefits once we pass the point where collections are exceeded by out-go is to borrow, borrow, borrow more. So your point is correct in textbook world, but not in the real political world.

 
Comment by turkey lurkey
2012-10-09 12:13:24

The political world is no more “real”, either.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Wizard
2012-10-08 11:00:01

The Government or Employers or people can’t really pay for the
the highest in the World medical costs .It will collaspe ,just like real estate did ,in about 10 years as the post above suggests .

I would just suggest to try to change your lifestyle to doing healthy things to not be as dependant on the medical system and Pharma drugs .

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-10-08 11:19:13

Crazy thing is, our business got a REBATE for last year for insurance costs. I’m sure there will be an increase this year…

Comment by ahansen
2012-10-08 12:08:30

I got a “rebate”, too. It was for $2.45 of the hundreds of K’s they’ve weaseled out of reimbursing me in the last couple of years. The sooner the exchanges kick in the better. These crooks have got to GO.

As for the rest of youse, I’m thrilled that the American public is finally getting to see just how much expense big employers like Walmart are shunting off on the rest of us by not paying their fair share of employee health costs — a practice Obamacare is bringing to a screeching (literally) halt. And now that you’re getting to subsidize that extra seventy pounds your colleague is carrying around on his butt, it kinda puts the whole lardosis-is-a-lifestyle-choice thing in a different light, doesn’t it?

BTW, Romney wants you paying those premiums out of the “voucher” he’s going to give you when you’re too old to work.

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2012-10-08 12:25:55

And what is their “fair share” of employee health costs? How did you determine that number?

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Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 12:59:46

Actuarial tables.

 
 
Comment by nickpapageorgio
2012-10-08 13:56:47

” It was for $2.45 of the hundreds of K’s they’ve weaseled out of reimbursing me in the last couple of years.”

All of those 50k and up folks having to pay for your “free” health care and you keep gloating.

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Comment by ahansen
2012-10-08 16:51:02

Your ignorance is exceeded only by your presumptions.

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-10-08 14:09:05

What they need to do is make it illegal for medical practitioners (hospitals and doctors) to charge differential rates to insurance companies…competition would jump, profit margins for insurance companies would fall.

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Comment by ahansen
2012-10-08 18:19:49

You are exactly correct, Rental, and this, essentially, is what Obamacare will do by allowing exchanges to stabilize the interstate reimbursement rates.

As it is, Medicare gets one set of billing and reimbursements, Medicaid another. Unions get another, private payers and non-insureds another. WIC uses another rate schedule, as does Clinica Alta Sierra. The oil companies have negotiated with one PPO but not the other two their employees can use. And heavens help you if your practice accepts county court employees whose spouses are teachers or firefighters. Then there are the feds and State officials and their families. Oh, and the college students….

One billing lady (Family Practice) in town told me she has THIRTY-SIX different sets of reimbursement books she has to use to bill her doc’s patient base.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-10-08 22:05:44

Obamacare will not have the desired effect.

Medicare will continue to pay hospitals the least amount. Largest insurance companies will pay the next least. Small insurance companies will pay more than the largest insurance companies. And uninsured (those left) will pay the most.

What makes you think the interstate exchanges will change this? They simply open up the market for patients to buy insurance more easily. It does nothing to change the landscape with respect to how hospitals negotiate with insurance carriers.

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-10-08 23:58:23

Rental,

It allows insurers to sell grouped and competitively priced policies across interstate lines. Again I’ll use Ma Bell as an example. When a service becomes readily available, and the govt sets the lower limit (the “fine” portion of the premium for coverage) every little Peadonk interinsurance exchange is going to be in there competing for the few remaining reimbursements. If Ed’s Med and Grill sells the same basic package Blue Cross has been gouging for 5% of the cost because it has no overhead and pays no CEO, guess how many folks will flock to Ed’s Med and Grill for coverage and dump Anthem/Blue on its behind?

Hard to keep selling that “reliability” factor when everyone offers the same exact product and service.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-10-09 08:52:05

Selling policies to patients is far different than negotiating with hospitals.

Unless you can honestly tell me that Ed’s Med and Grill is going to have enough patients to effectively negotiate with major hospitals, Anthem is going to still have a major advantage when it comes to negotiating their contract with hospitals.

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-10-09 10:38:20

Rental,

Wallmart. Or if you’d prefer, Amazon. The providers sure as shootin’ negotiate with THEM.

 
 
 
 
Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 12:40:46

The increase has nothing to do with Obamacare. This is STRICTLY both the insurance company and your employer ripping you off before the rate caps take effect.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2012-10-08 15:04:12

The maximum in-network out-of-pocket medical expenses went up exactly 50%!!! … Way to go OBAMACARE!

I just found a bruise on my arm…..Way to go OBAMACARE!

 
 
Comment by Northeastener
2012-10-08 08:20:20

Just got back from the Disney family vacation in Orlando. Flights there and back were sold out. It was off-season (non-school vacation) and there were still long wait lines for Magic Kingdom, Animal Kingdom, Universal, etc. We used Fast Pass as often as we could to avoid the lines, but it was still annoying.

The worst wait was “The Walking Dead” Halloween experience at Universal. We went Friday night and ended up waiting over an hour and a half in line for what was a 10 minute walk through. Tickets for the Halloween event were $89 per person, just for the evening, and it was completely packed.

Regardless of what the economists and politicians are saying about the economy as a whole, families are spending a lot of money in Orlando. Also surprising to me was the number of foreigners, especially Brits, Germans, and Hispanics (Mexicans/Central/South Americans). I would say at least 30%+ of the people we saw in the parks were foreigners…

Comment by scdave
2012-10-08 08:26:42

Interesting Northeasterner…Thanks for the observation…

Comment by Bill in Carolina
2012-10-08 09:12:06

Flights are packed because the airlines are carefully balancing supply with demand. Last year the airline we normally use had six daily flights to Denver. This year there are only three.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2012-10-08 09:54:00

Good point.

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 09:40:33

Did you stay “on property” or did you stay somewhere on International Drive?

I’ve heard that the Disney Hotels in Anaheim are packed as well, and that a night at the Grand Californian is running $500 these days, which is crazy as there are perfectly nice places on Harbor Blvd (like say Embassy Suites) which cost a fraction of that price.

Comment by Northeastener
2012-10-08 10:17:50

We stayed at the Hilton Grand Vacations Suites at Sea World. We had a 3 bedroom 3 bath suite with full kitchen and washer/dryer as it was my wife, our 2 children, and both my parents and my in-laws. It was part of a time-share owned through work, so we didn’t have to pay for lodging, just travel, food, and parks/entertainment.

My sister-in-law and brother-in-law both stayed on-site at Disney, though I have no idea how much it cost…

Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 11:46:55

It depends on where they stayed. “On property” rates in Orlando range from $100 for the Motel 6 like “All Star Resorts” to $2000+ at the Grand Floridian.

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Comment by Northeastener
2012-10-08 14:11:12

I think they stayed at the Caribbean Beach Resort in Disney.

 
 
Comment by ahansen
2012-10-08 12:16:23

“…my wife, our 2 children, and both my parents and my in-laws….”
At Disneyland.

Great gods, man!! How do you envision Dante’s sixth circle?

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 12:49:01

Given how Disney is packing its “resorts” on both coasts, year round, apparently a lot of people like it and are willing to spend thousands of dollars for a “Disney Vacation”.

The funny this is that once upon a time Disneyland was a place Southern Californians took their kids once or twice a year for a day trip.

Now there are Disney “Resorts” in Anaheim, Orlando, Tokyo, Paris, Hong Kong with Shanghai being next all complete with expensive hotels and pricey restaurants. And through aggressive marketing Disney has been able to keep its parks and hotels packed to the gills year round.

Disney also sells pricey annual passes for their parks. They sell about 1 million annual passes every year for Disneyland alone.

I wonder if “Uncle Walt” had any idea back in 1955 when he opened Disneyland that his theme park would grow into an empire would be so successful?

 
Comment by Northeastener
2012-10-08 14:09:09

How do you envision Dante’s sixth circle?

LOL. Not sure how Dante stayed sane during his trek through the levels of hell, but I just kept repeating the mantra: “It’s for the children… It’s for the children…”

 
Comment by ahansen
2012-10-08 16:52:21

:-)

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 19:21:26

I showed my (Disneyphile) wife the comment about Dante’s sixth circle. First she was clueless; then when I explained, she was not amused…

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2012-10-08 08:55:20

Score another point for financial innovation.

JPMorgan Loss Proves System Too Complex, China’s Gao Says
By Christine Harper on October 05, 2012
Bloomberg

“He expressed concern about a society in which “all the best engineers are engineering financial products.”

“You have all the smartest kids to design these products, the only purpose of which is to get money out of other people’s pockets,” he said. “That is not very good.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-05/jpmorgan-loss-proves-system-too-complex-china-s-gao-says

Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 09:41:37

Why make stuff when you can legally rob people?

Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 13:01:45

Why make stuff (new inventions) when it can be legally stolen from you as well?

 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 09:29:43

I find it quite remarkable that the U.S. housing market has managed to find a bottom, even as a lingering scepter of economic doom haunts global equity markets.

Europe stocks down as global growth woes intensify

In this photo taken on Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012, workers count the small currency notes from bus fares at the accounting center of a bus company in Rizhao city in east China’s Shandong province. The World Bank cut this year’s growth outlook for developing Asia-Pacific economies to 7.2 percent from its May forecast of 7.6 percent. The bank cut its forecast for China, the region’s biggest economy, to 7.7 percent from May’s 8.2 percent. (AP Photo) CHINA OUT
By GREG KELLER
AP Business Writer / October 8, 2012

PARIS (AP) — Europe’s stock markets fell Monday ahead of a two-day meeting of its finance ministers while the World Bank cut its growth forecasts for Asia.

Investors were also disappointed by falling commodity prices and a mixed finish on Wall Street on Friday despite a drop in the U.S. unemployment rate. There was also some frustration regarding mainland Chinese shares, which opened to losses after a weeklong holiday.

European stocks fell in early trading. By midmorning in London, Britain’s FTSE 100 was off 0.75 percent at 5,826.94, Germany’s DAX slid 1.4 percent to 7.289.14 and France’s CAC 40 lost 1.4 percent to 3,409.81.

Wall Street looked as though it would open lower with Dow Jones industrial futures down 0.4 percent to 13,485 with S&P 500 futures down the same amount at 1,449.30.

Investors continue to worry over protests in Spain and IMF concerns over Greece.

Tens of thousands of people marched in 56 Spanish cities Sunday to protest government budget cuts in a country experiencing its second recession in three years and record high unemployment.

The government has pushed through nine straight months of tough austerity measures that have prompted Spain’s 17 regional governments to slash spending in health care and education.

Officials from the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank are currently in Greece assessing the country’s progress in fulfilling the terms for receiving aid.

If their report doesn’t clear the way for the payment of the next €31 billion ($40 billion) tranche of the country’s bailout, Greece could be forced to default on its debts and perhaps leave the euro. Greece has warned that it will run out of money next month if it does not receive its next scheduled loan.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is to visit Greece Tuesday for talks with Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras. Merkel is unpopular in Greece because her government has been instrumental in pushing Athens to make austerity cuts in exchange for its bailout loans.

The day’s sullen trading began in Asia.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.9 percent to 20,824.56. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.7 percent to 1,981.89 and Australia’s S&P/ASX200 dropped 0.3 percent to 4,481.90.

Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite Index shed 0.6 percent to 2,074.42 and the smaller Shenzhen Composite Index lost 0.5 percent to 849.30.

Benchmarks in Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand also fell. New Zealand’s rose. Markets in Japan were closed for a public holiday.

The World Bank cut this year’s growth outlook for developing Asia-Pacific economies to 7.2 percent from its May forecast of 7.6 percent. The bank cut its forecast for China, the region’s biggest economy, to 7.7 percent from May’s 8.2 percent. The bank cited weak global demand due to the lackluster U.S. recovery and Europe’s recession.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 09:51:17

ABREAST OF THE MARKET
October 7, 2012, 4:34 p.m. ET

Investors Appear Deaf to Earnings Alarms
By TOM LAURICELLA

Investors and analysts right now agree on one thing: Earnings season is likely to be bad.

The bigger debate is how much stock investors should worry about the parade of gloomy news.

For the first time in 11 quarters, companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index are likely to show a decline in profits, overall.

But earnings concerns have of late been overshadowed by other events. The Federal Reserve has unleashed another round of monetary easing, adding fuel to a rally that started in early June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched higher on Friday to 13610.15, a five-year high. The S&P 500 ended at 1460.93, just shy of that marker.

“People are certainly aware that earnings are going to be poor in the quarter,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at brokerage firm BTIG LLC. “But in light of what’s been happening on the macro side of things, earnings have gotten a lot less attention than they normally do.”

That, some analysts and investors say, means earnings this season are less likely to influence the stock market than they otherwise might have, thanks in large part to the Fed, whose moves have helped prop up stocks. In addition, if consumers are in better shape, as suggested by continuing declines in unemployment and a stabilized housing sector, any slowdown in earnings could be considered temporary.

Another school of thought warns, though, that a poor showing, particularly in the form of declining revenue and shrinking profit margins, would signify a serious deterioration in corporate health that could undermine any stock-market gains over the long haul.

Third-quarter earnings season kicks off Tuesday when Alcoa (AA +0.61%) reports its results after the closing bell.

No matter how they are sliced, the forecasts for overall earnings among the companies in the S&P 500 are lousy. Estimates from S&P Capital IQ call for a 1.34% decline, while in the second quarter, earnings managed to cling to positive territory with a 0.81% growth rate.

Third-quarter earnings forecasts have been steadily reduced over the past three months. The consensus forecast for aggregate third-quarter earnings on S&P 500 companies is now $25.01 a share, down 4.5% from June 30, according to FactSet Research Systems (FDS -0.38%). FactSet notes, however, that the decline is only a touch bigger than the average downward revision over the past 10 years of 4.3%.

As in all earnings seasons, a bleak lead-up can actually help mitigate the impact of the actual reports. It is typical for companies to do a dance of lowering expectations to such a degree that it is much easier for them to beat forecasts. That was the case for second-quarter earnings, when, after much angst about the health of corporate profits, 65% of companies still topped expectations, according to S&P Capital IQ.

“Companies are masterful at convincing analysts things are going to be terrible and that ends up not being the case,” Mr. Greenhaus said. “It’s the quarterly game that everybody plays and pretends not to be playing.”

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 10:05:44

AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Updated October 8, 2012, 12:10 p.m. ET

Trouble Not as Close as It Appears

By SPENCER JAKAB

In the stock market, trouble comes when you least expect it.

In the stock market, trouble comes when you least expect it. Spencer Jakab has some cautionary tales for investors on Markets Hub.

With the S&P 500 up 16% year to date ahead of Tuesday’s unofficial start of earnings season, and an unusual amount of short-term political and economic uncertainty, some fear investors have become complacent. But the fact the question is being asked so frequently is, in itself, evidence they aren’t.

There are plenty of caution signs. For one, earnings growth in the third quarter likely turned negative for the first time in over three years while stock prices are back to December 2007 levels. The cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio espoused by Yale professor Robert Shiller shows stocks a third more expensive than their long-run average at 22 times.

Then there is the Vix, or CBOE Volatility Index, referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge.” It dipped below 14 Friday morning. That shows investors are betting on very low short-term volatility.

And the Citigroup (C -0.31%) Economic Surprise Index has had a recent sharp rise to its highest level since March. It measures the degree to which economists’ consensus estimates have been too optimistic or pessimistic about data releases.

Peaks, showing optimism, and troughs, showing pessimism, sometimes coincide with selloffs and rallies in stocks. That makes it a useful contrarian indicator. When it was last at today’s level, stocks soon began a 10% correction.

 
Comment by Patrick
2012-10-08 10:12:47

These almost record high stock indexes are not indicative of the true health of Joseph Investor’s portfolio who is generally underwater. He hasn’t left the retail market, he just cannot sell or he will lose from 25 to 50% of his holdings.

Only the top 10% of stocks have moved the markets to these heights, (being done by funds dependant on their commissions) with generous leverage assistance from Ben Bernake whose banks show these as almost liquid assets thus improving their leverage.

Not only housing is underwater, so is Joseph’s stock holdings which are generally not the over $20 type of stock with their high volatility being favoured by the Mutual Funds, Pensions, etc.

I have no empirical data to back this up, but I have heard that of about 5000 stocks on North American markets, only 500 are contributing to the markets’ health. Can anyone provide proof of this?

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 10:16:07

BUSINESS
Updated October 7, 2012, 10:42 p.m. ET

Depositors Turn Up Heat on Ailing Spanish Banks

By CHRISTOPHER BJORK

Spaniards who lost money on bonds are protesting the banks, posing a challenge to the financial sector’s recovery efforts. WSJ’s Christopher Bjork reports from Moana.

MOAÑA, Spain—Eugenio Nuñez Cobás stormed into a bank branch in this coastal town one morning in August with three dozen fellow customers yelling “Thieves! Thieves! Thieves!” Then they returned to the street and pelted the facade with eggs, forcing the branch to close for the day.

Mr. Nuñez had been coming to the Novagalicia Banco SA branch for eight months with a placard that reads: “I have all my savings trapped in Novagalicia Banco until the year 2999.” The 70-year-old retiree said: “I really should be at home playing with my grandchildren. Instead, I’m here every week, fighting for my savings.”

Mr. Nuñez was one of more than 700,000 Spanish depositors who poured money—in some cases their life savings—into high-yielding preferred shares and subordinated bonds issued by their banks. When the economic crisis erupted in Spain, the securities plunged in value, making it effectively impossible to resell them.

Many customers now say they were swindled, that branch bankers assured them that the complex securities were just as safe as deposits. Some banks offered clients the option to swap preferred shares for deposits or common shares, but the European Union, which is lending money to Spain to prop up its banks, nixed any such deals by lenders bailed out by the government, including Novagalicia. That bank has issued a public apology and agreed to arbitrate thousands of claims brought by customers.

Spanish Finance Minister Luis de Guindos described the securities last Wednesday in Parliament as “complex instruments for institutional investors. The problem isn’t the product itself. If people understand it, there’s no problem. The problem is that the securities were placed among people that didn’t understand them.”

“Unfortunately, this situation makes us pretty unique—the only place in the civilized world where these preferred shares were sold to depositors,” he said. The Spanish government, he added, is working with the European Union “to try to find the best possible solution for these depositors.”

The embarrassing standoff between the banks and depositors is further eroding confidence in a financial system already reeling from capital flight and enormous losses tied to a housing bust. The banking sector has become increasingly hooked on emergency borrowing from the European Central Bank. Through the end of August, Spain’s banks had borrowed €412.6 billion ($538 billion) from the ECB, roughly one-third of all central-bank funding to euro-zone lenders.

“As long as distrust in the banking system persists, capital flight will continue,” says Domingo Bello, a professor of law at the University of La Coruña.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 10:32:58

“Mr. Nuñez was one of more than 700,000 Spanish depositors who poured money—in some cases their life savings—into high-yielding preferred shares and subordinated bonds issued by their banks.”

Oops…

Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 11:11:04
 
 
Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 13:04:08

I have mentioned lately that you should NEVER trust a bank?

Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 13:29:03

The Frito Bandito

He turns your Fritos into his Fritos.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jfthrlClew

 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 10:20:42

October 1, 2012
Mortgage settlement attracts scam artists who prey on struggling homeowners
By Brady Dennis and Danielle Douglas
The Washington Post

The ink was barely dry on the government’s $25 billion mortgage settlement with the nation’s biggest banks earlier this year when scam artists seized on the opportunity.

In Alabama, struggling homeowners received calls promising them cash payments from the settlement, if only they would provide the routing number to their bank accounts. In Illinois, they were told they qualified under the settlement for a loan refinancing, but only after they paid a hefty upfront fee. In California, the attorney general herself received a call claiming that she was eligible for aid from the settlement.

“Every time there’s a new government program announced - in this case, it’s a very large settlement - scam artists use that as an opportunity to defraud people,” said Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan.

Madigan said her office has seen an “explosion” in such scams since the bottom fell out from under the housing boom in 2006. “As the economy goes, so goes our consumer fraud complaints,” she said.

Across the country, the combination of rampant foreclosures, desperate homeowners, record low interest rates and billions in available government aid have created fertile ground for scam artists, who have found new and creative ways to prey on the millions of Americans who owe more than their homes are worth.

State and federal authorities have stepped up efforts to curb mortgage-related crimes. They have hired more investigators and created special task forces. They have ramped up efforts to alert the public to scams. They have held mortgage fraud summits in hard-hit states such as California, Nevada and Florida. They have supported laws to ban the practice of demanding upfront fees from consumers. They have filed hundreds of lawsuits and sent out thousands of cease-and-desist orders to shady businesses.

Despite those efforts, the high levels of fraud persist.

“It’s like a game of whack-a-mole,” said Patrick Madigan, an assistant Iowa attorney general who headed efforts to negotiate the national mortgage settlement. “You hit one and four more pop up.”

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 10:22:24

Report Finds Banks Continued Abusive Practice After Foreclosure Settlement
By Pat Garofalo on Oct 3, 2012 at 4:30 pm

The nation’s five biggest banks signed a settlement in February with the Department of Justice and most of the nation’s state attorneys general that allowed the banks to avoid going to court for their role in the foreclosure fraud scandal. Under the terms of the settlement, the banks agreed to pay $25 billion and end certain abusive practices.

However, a new report from the California Monitor, an office overseeing the settlement, found that the banks continued at least one pernicious practice until the last possible moment:

The Settlement provided banks with an implementation period to change their practices. Banks agreed to make all changes by one of three deadlines: 60 days, 90 days, or 180 days. While some changes, such as implementation of a single point of contact for borrower communication, occurred quickly, the banks have taken the full 180 days (six months) to stop dual tracking. This is permissible under the Settlement.

But this waiting has been painful for homeowners, whose fate is uncertain under the dual track regime. To date, dual tracking has continued. As the graph illustrates, the California Monitor Program has received dozens of requests for help each month from families who have submitted loan modification applications but fear that foreclosure will occur, despite their hard work. In August, 25% of complaints received by the California Monitor stated a dual tracking problem.

“Dual-tracking” is the practice of continuing the foreclosure process even as a homeowner is being evaluated for a mortgage modification. It has caused problems for borrowers with several large banks, and results in borrowers faithfully making payments while awaiting a permanent mortgage modification, but seeing their homes foreclosed upon and sold out from under them anyway.

Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 13:05:36

duh

(that said, good find CIBT)

Comment by Hi-Z
2012-10-08 13:24:08

If borrowers are faithfully making payments, why are they in foreclosure?

 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 10:30:03

REAL ESTATE ROUNDTABLE
MORTGAGE-REDUCTION SCAMS ARE ON THE RISE
By Gary M. Singer • Sun Sentinel (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
12:01 a.m., Oct. 8, 2012
Updated 9:15 p.m. , Oct. 6, 2012

Q: I was solicited by a company that said it could reduce my mortgage, and I’d have 20 percent equity in the home when all is said and done. The firm proposed a complex legal plan that begins when I deed my home to a trust and pay a $2,500 fee. Is this legitimate?

A: No. The land trust sues your lender with a special type of lawsuit that is normally used to clear up legitimate ownership or title issues. The hope is that your lender will not notice that it is being sued, allowing the land trust to get a court order saying that the mortgage lien is gone. This may even happen. If it does, you will be asked to buy your property back from the land trust.

What the scammer is not telling you is that you still owe all of that money to the bank. And once the bank catches wind of what happened, it will go back to court and correct the issue. Further, because the closing companies are on to the scam, no title company will be able to issue a title insurance policy for you to sell or refinance your home. The net effect of all this is that you get to give the scammer all sorts of money you can’t afford to lose and end up losing your house anyway.

It’s sad to say, but with the real estate market starting to pick up, mortgage scams are on the rise.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2012-10-08 10:36:38

It has caused problems for borrowers with several large banks, and results in borrowers faithfully making payments while awaiting a permanent mortgage modification, but seeing their homes foreclosed upon and sold out from under them anyway.

Doesn’t this maximize profit for the bank? If so, isn’t this to be expected then? This companies are not immoral, they’re amoral. They’re a maw in search of profit. With the added bonus of being fed by the Fed with public money. The closest analogy is a shark in its search for food. And they’re a favored sector by the government and the Fed.

No dollar shall be allowed to escape. Strategic default is only for big companies with well-connected owners. If a mere foot-soldier dares such insolence, it is the height of immorality and social betrayal.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 10:48:17

The closest analogy is a shark in its search for food.

Banks Still Raking In the Profits from Overdraft Fees
PHOTO: Moebs found that total revenue from overdraft fees grew from $30.8 billion in June 2011 to $31.5 billion in June 2012, a whopping $700 million increase. (Getty Images)
Column by ADAM LEVIN, Credit.com
Oct. 7, 2012

If you’ve ever witnessed a great white shark attack, you know the meaning of the word “relentless.” The giant creature’s dorsal fin traces a circle in the water as it spots a vulnerable victim; the shark makes a first strike, then a second and a third, coolly and methodically; the victim struggles, weakens and finally succumbs to the massive loss of blood. Some victims survive, of course — but for many, once marked for attack, it’s only a matter of time.

It seems that sharks and bankers have a lot in common.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 10:55:50

Oct. 8, 2012, 1:46 p.m. EDT
Employers say most workers squander 401(k)s
By Ian Salisbury

Encore: Most workers aren’t making good use of their retirement plans, but employers say the plans aren’t the problem.

Is a 401(k) retirement plan “adequate” if most workers who use it aren’t prepared for retirement?

That’s the question raised by a new study from benefits consulting firm Towers Watson. The 401(k) system has come under a lot of criticism since the financial crisis hammered workers’ nest eggs. But the study, which polled about 370 large employers, suggests there may be a big gap between how managers and workers view the issue — and that managers don’t necessarily have a high opinion of the hoi polloi.

The discrepancy: Towers found about two thirds — 65% — of employers believed employees had ‘adequate’ retirement and investment planning resources. At the same time only 15% thought employees “made good use” of the resources and only 22% thought employees made “informed decisions” about retirement.

Ouch!

Of course, someone with a more charitable view of the employees might wish employers were asked a follow-up question: If your plan is such a failure for the people it’s supposed to help, what’s exactly is the standard you’re using to declare it “adequate”?

There have been a slew of proposals about what to do to make 401(k)s better. Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, advanced some proposals of her own in a recent Encore post. Her suggestions included turning automatic enrollment and automatic escalation in the contribution rate into mandatory default settings for employees, and requiring that more default 401(k) investments be cheaper options, like indexed ETFs or indexed mutual funds. For more, see Munnell’s post “ How 401(k)s Could Work Much Better.”

Comment by b-hamster
2012-10-08 11:23:12

Without employer matches, I don’t see why anyone would go into equities, especially long-term. At least when there were defined benefit plans investing mostly in treasuries, the cash flow was a bit more predictble.

A small amount goes into my 401(k). My imputed ROR on paying down my mortgage is about 7%, so that’s good enough for me. The rest earns a whopping .5% in savings.

Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 11:43:03

Isn’t it funny how matches have shriveled up and gone away? I remember when I was matched 1 on 1 on the first 8%. Not the cap where I work is 4% and it’s only a 50% match.

Comment by b-hamster
2012-10-08 11:55:58

I think it will be pretty ugly in a decade or two when many of the these boomers are retiring with little retirement savings and diminishing social security - match or no match.

Privatizing SS (imo) is nothing more than supporting the already lofty valuations of equities with shaky underlying fundamentals.

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Comment by Bill in Carolina
2012-10-08 12:39:06

One offspring and spouse, both public school teachers in the PNW for over 12 years, have only their 403b’s. No retirement. They claim they could live on just one of their salaries (no kids) and they’re putting a lot away. Based on what we observed on our most recent visit I don’t think they’re lying.

They both still love what they do, and really take advantage of their summers off to travel, do house repairs, etc.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 12:58:32

One offspring and spouse, both public school teachers in the PNW for over 12 years, have only their 403b’s. No retirement.

WHAT!? I thought that all school teachers were union goons with gold plated pensions!

Kidding aside, that’s how it is here too.

 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2012-10-08 13:27:34

Not the cap where I work is 4% and it’s only a 50% match.

For me that’s as good as it ever got…plus an occasional bonus deposited directly into the 401(k). Now I have no matching but a better salary, so I put in 10% myself.

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Comment by redrum
2012-10-08 12:41:15

7%? After taxes? I think you need a better mortgage.

Maybe I’m missing something big in the computation. My mortgage is at 3.5%. Itemizing deductions is almost a wash for me- I wouldn’t be much worse off taking the standard deduction, so I won’t take credit for a tax advantage. Opportunity cost (safe savings rate) is around 1%. So, extra payment would earn me around 2.5%. At that rate, I’d rather have the liquidity (cash). How are you computing 7%?

Sure, my cash is getting inflated away… but so is my mortgage debt (at the same rate).

Comment by b-hamster
2012-10-08 14:03:06

It was a quick back of the envelope calculation on my 12C:
PV= -300 (the amount I pay towards P&I)
FV = 1000 (the amount it knocks off P&I - every $300 reduces my mortgage payment by one month)
n = 20 - years left on mortgage
i = 6.2% returned interest rate. This morning it came out to 6.8%, so something changed, but that’s my simple methodolgy.

I didn’t take into account taxes, etc.

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Comment by Montana
2012-10-08 12:44:03

I’ve never gotten a match. But I still use 401k because it keeps money away from creditors (and in-laws). I use both an IRA and 401k and can’t even borrow against the latter. I have my age in bonds and the rest in equities in each.

Only thing to worry about is the govt.

Comment by Montana
2012-10-08 12:45:34

…oh, and I am totally solvent and debt-free…but you never know!

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Comment by In Colorado
2012-10-08 13:00:06

Only thing to worry about is the govt.

Given the low rates of return you might want to use a mattress …

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Comment by ecofeco
2012-10-08 13:13:43

Again, we see that areas of complexity, in this case, financial planning in an ever changing environment, that require specialized knowledge are being put on the backs of ordinary people and then they are blamed for not being experts.

NO ONE can be an expert in everything nor does the average person have the time.

Caveat emptor is fraud and theft.

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 10:57:45

Markets
Here’s Why You Should Keep Your Treasurys

Think treasurys are boring and unimportant? They provide a safe haven for investors amid unstable times. SmartMoney’s Jack Hough explains why investors should focus on keeping their treasurys, despite rumors of a bubble. Photo: Bloomberg News.
7/30/2012 3:16:46 PM

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 11:59:18

MUTUAL FUNDS
October 3, 2012, 5:08 p.m. ET

Fund Inflows Slow to Trickle As Hybrids Suffer a Decline

By NATHALIE TADENA

Long-term mutual funds rose by $448 million in the latest week, the smallest net inflows so far this year, according to the Investment Company Institute.

For the week ended Sept. 26, equity funds had outflows of $7.5 billion, compared with prior-week outflows of $5.12 billion. U.S. equity funds fell by $5.08 billion, while foreign equity funds fell by $2.42 billion.

Bond funds had inflows of $8.32 billion, up from prior-week inflows of $8 billion. Investors added $6.89 billion to taxable funds and $1.44 billion to municipal funds.

Hybrid funds, which can invest in both stocks and fixed-income assets, fell by $377 million, compared with prior-week inflows of $1.64 billion.

Meanwhile, assets in money-market funds fell by $14.2 billion in the latest week as investors withdrew money from prime and government funds, more than offsetting slight gains to tax-free funds, according to iMoneyNet.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 12:03:16

If individual investors and hedge funds alike are leaving the U.S. stock market in droves, what is propping it up?

Bloomberg News
Hedge Funds Turn From Stocks Despite 12% Rally

By Whitney Kisling and Nikolaj Gammeltoft on October 05, 2012

The ratio of bullish to bearish bets among professional speculators fell last week and is below historical averages, according to a survey by International Strategy & Investment Group. The reduction came as the MSCI All-Country World Index extended its yearly advance to 12 percent and contrasts with January, when managers bought shares as they rose, data compiled by ISI and Bloomberg show.

Hedge funds make up more of the equity market after their assets expanded and individuals pulled record cash from U.S. mutual funds. Bulls say gains will get bigger as managers who have trailed benchmark indexes most of the year start to buy. Bears say previous rallies were fueled as they tried to catch up and the advance that began in June will fizzle.

“The underexposure of hedge funds is one of the reasons I remain bullish on equities,” Michael Strauss, who helps oversee about $26 billion as chief investment strategist at Commonfund in Wilton, Connecticut, said in a phone interview. “It may create forced buying into the market.”

Comment by Rental Watch
2012-10-08 16:57:48

“If individual investors and hedge funds alike are leaving the U.S. stock market in droves, what is propping it up?”

Not enough willing sellers at lower prices?

 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 13:52:25

Stocks lower on weak outlook for 3Q, Asian economy
Associated Press
October 8, 2012, 1:34 p.m.

Investors looked warily at forecasts for poor U.S. corporate earnings and weaker growth in Asia and decided there wasn’t much reason to buy stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average gave up 26.50 points to close at 13,583.65 points Monday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 5.05 points to 1,455.88 and the Nasdaq composite lost 23.84 points to 3,112.35.

Companies in the S&P 500 index are expected to post an overall decline in profits for the first time in 11 quarters, according to FactSet. The third-quarter earnings season starts on Tuesday when aluminum maker Alcoa releases its results.

Tuesday also marks the five-year anniversary of the record high closes of the Dow and the S&P 500. The S&P, a benchmark tracked by many mutual funds, is currently about 7 percent below its record high. The Dow is about 4 percent below its peak.

Stocks have been on a strong run, with the Dow up 11 percent this year, the S&P 500 nearly 16 percent. But Asia’s slowdown, Europe’s problems, and now forecasts of weak U.S. corporate earnings have caused some investors to wonder whether the stock market has risen too far, too fast.

On top of those concerns, some market leaders like Apple have been falling in recent days, noted Bob Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners LLC.

“It sort of leads folks into thinking, `Why don’t I take a little bit of profit off the table, put it away,“’ and maybe re-invest it if third-quarter results turn out to be higher than expected, he said.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 14:00:45

Look no farther than your Congress if you are curious why Uncle Sam supports the real estate market in oh so many ways.

Capitol Assets: Congress’s wealthiest mostly shielded from effects of deep recession
By Dan Keating, Scott Higham, Kimberly Kindy and David S. Fallis, Published: October 6

If you could peer deeply into how the 535 members of Congress handle their money, what would you find?

You would see a diversity of investment strategies and results, from those who put their money into riskier, high-growth funds to those who own safe municipal bonds. The legislators range from the super-rich to the deep-in-debt, from inherited wealth to married wealth to no wealth at all. They are entrepreneurs and farmers, oilmen and ranchers, lawyers and real estate developers.

You would find that, contrary to many popular perceptions, lawmakers don’t get rich by merely being in Congress. Rich people who go to Congress, though, keep getting richer while they’re there.

The wealthiest one-third of lawmakers were largely immune from the Great Recession, taking the fewest financial hits and watching their investments quickly recover and rise to new heights. But more than 20 percent of the members of the current Congress — 121 lawmakers — appeared to be worse off in 2010 than they had been six years earlier, and 24 saw their reported wealth slide into negative territory.

Those findings emerge from an ongoing examination of congressional finances by The Washington Post, which analyzed thousands of financial disclosure forms and public records for all members of Congress.

Most members weathered the financial crisis better than the average American, who saw median household net worth drop 39 percent from 2007 to 2010. The median estimated wealth of members of the current Congress rose 5 percent during the same period, according to their reported assets and liabilities. The wealthiest one-third of Congress gained 14 percent.

Because lawmakers are allowed to report their holdings and debts in broad ranges, it is impossible for the public to determine their precise net worth. They also are not required to reveal the value of their homes, the salaries of their spouses or money kept in non-
interest-bearing bank accounts and their congressional retirement plan.

For its analysis, The Post used the midpoint of the range of each reported holding and tracked the figures over time to determine whether the relative wealth of lawmakers had increased or declined between 2004 and 2010. Previous studies of congressional wealth have looked at Congress as a whole, rather than tracking the financial trend for each individual lawmaker. The Post created an in-depth financial portrait of each member of Congress.

Among the findings:

●The estimated wealth of Republicans was 44 percent higher than Democrats in 2004, but that disparity has virtually disappeared.

●The number of millionaires in Congress dropped after the Great Recession; the 253 who have served during the current session are the smallest group since 2004. The numbers are likely to be underestimated because lawmakers are not required to list their homes among their assets.

●Between 2004 and 2010, 72 lawmakers appeared to have doubled their estimated wealth.

●At least 150 lawmakers reported receiving more income from outside jobs and investments than from their congressional salaries of $174,000 for rank-and-file members.

Representatives in 2010 had a median estimated wealth of $746,000; senators had $2.6 million.

●Since 2004, lawmakers reported more than 3,500 outside jobs paying their spouses more than $1,000 a year. The lawmakers are not required to report how much the spouses are paid or what they did for the money.

●Lawmakers’ wealth is held in a variety of ways: 127 primarily in real estate, 117 in institutional funds, 75 in their spouses’ names, 51 in essentially cash, 36 in specific stocks and bonds, 32 in high-turnover trading, 30 in business ownership and 20 in agriculture. More than 40 had reported assets of $25,000 or less.

 
Comment by Muggy
2012-10-08 16:33:45

In an experiment apparently aimed at keeping down the cost of health-care reform, Orlando-based Darden Restaurants has stopped offering full-time schedules to many hourly workers in at least a few Olive Gardens, Red Lobsters and LongHorn Steakhouses.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/os-darden-part-time-workers-20121007,0,1505128.story

Comment by aNYCdj
2012-10-08 18:56:54

Great news for Ohbewanna fans,,,more food stamps..

 
 
Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-10-08 16:49:04

Mom who glued kid’s hands to wall faces life sentence

12:53PM EST October 8. 2012 -

DALLAS (AP) — A Texas woman who admitted to beating her 2-year-old daughter and gluing her hands to a wall could face life in prison.

Elizabeth Escalona pleaded guilty July 12 to injury to a child. The young mother is scheduled to be sentenced Monday.

Her daughter was in a coma for two days after the Sept. 7, 2011, incident. The girl and her siblings have since been taken into state custody. Police records show the toddler’s siblings told investigators their mother kicked the girl in the stomach repeatedly and hit her with various objects before gluing her hands to the wall. She was in a hospital for a week.

Dallas police say Escalona was mad about potty training problems.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/10/08/mom-who-glued-kids-hands-to-wall-faces-life-term/1619775/ -

 
Comment by UNKNOWN TENANT
2012-10-08 16:53:08

Posted: 3:59 p.m. Monday, Oct. 8, 2012

Florida Realtors warned about identity theft scam

By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Thousands of Florida Realtors and other professionals with state licenses are being warned of a “very official”-looking identity theft scam that lures potential victims with threats of disciplinary action.

The Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation, which regulates professions ranging from contractors to cosmetologists, began getting complaints about the scam last week.

Sandi Poreda, communications director for the department, said license holders are getting e-mails that look like they are from the department and claim there are disciplinary actions pending against the recipient. The license holder is directed to call a “department investigator” at a toll-free number where they are asked for personal data such as drivers license information and social security numbers.

“It looks very official,” Poreda said about the e-mail, which is being investigated by the department. “They copied the banner on our website and created an e-mail signature that looks very much like ours.”

While Realtors submitted the initial complaints about the scam, Poreda said the department doesn’t know how people are being targeted and therefore are notifying all of their license holders.

Officials fear the scam could be more effective than a typical e-mail solicitation because the department does contact licenses holders through e-mail about disciplinary issues. But Poreda said an official notice is typically also sent via regular mail.

“It’s important for people to know that this contact is not coming from us,” she said.

Anyone who gets a suspicious warning of disciplinary action from the department is being asked to call 850-487-1395 and report it to law enforcement.

The Federal Trade Commission reported earlier this year that Florida ranked first in the nation last year for the number of identity theft complaints per capita. Georgia followed, with California coming in third.

Florida’s top identity theft complaints came from fraud relating to government documents, such as tax returns, followed by credit card fraud and bank fraud.

 
2012-10-08 17:21:38

Martin, I’ll address your post as best as I can.

You wrote (and I paraphrase):

Starting salaries for Ph.D’s in Finance have gone about $220K-250K.

What you really meant was:

Starting salaries for faculty in Finance that work at relatively elite schools has gone to about $220K-250K

Both statements are false but the first one is more egregiously false than the second.

Now, normally this is the kinda detail that I p1ss on people for but as it so happens, I’m no Nicole Kidman, and all things considered, I bet you’re no Zac Efron either! (Maybe, I’m the jellyfish?)

The correct question you need to ask:

What are starting salaries of the graduates (MBA’s) that graduate from those places?

The answer is resolutely closer to $60K than it is to $220K. If they tell you otherwise, they are lying openly like Realtors™.

There are two questions here:

[1] What do the graduates make (and why?)
[2] What do the faculty make (and why?)

The answer is shockingly straightforward.

Just like the Housing Bubble pulled forward an absurd amount of consumption from the future, the faculty are busy extracting all future income from the students in the form of student loans.

Moreover, student loans are non-dischargeable in bankruptcy. They will even garnish SS to pay those loans.

So, yes, there are an absurd number of SENIOR faculty that are definitely living high off the hog (just like Realtor’s) but also they are nakedly manipulating the statistics to overstate what their graduates earn.

There are NO starting salaries like that. They are openly lying in the usual ways. Mean v/s median. Reported salaries v/s the massive number of unreported salaries (read: unemployed.)

There is also the open scam of IBR.

Law school is a lot more ahead of this game than B-School. 45,000 graduates for only 20,000 legal positions. You do the math. More than 50% have MASSIVE student loans but no jobs as lawyers.

Ditto for the finance MBA’s.

(I have a lot more to say on this subject. I’ve studied it for more than a decade.)

Try and dig down to the details otherwise I’ll be forced to pull a Nicole Kidman to your Zac Efron!

You’re plain wrong (rephrase: just manipulated.)

Comment by Martin
2012-10-08 19:20:57

FPSS:
You are living in your own world.

I say it again: Starting salaries for fresh PhD in Business Schools especially FInance or Management fields is around 220K. Not just top schools but top 100 schools. I’m not talking about MBAs.

Get you facts straight. It is happening. Even this year new Assistant professors who are joing the B Schools are staring at 9 month salaries more than 200K.

2012-10-08 19:31:47

So why not get yourself one of these AMAZING jobs?

You’re not just lying, you’re a p1mp.

Plus, you’re a ret@rd but that’s par for the course.

I didn’t exactly see a rebuttal just some p1mptastic nonsense.

Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 19:34:21

“So why not get yourself one of these AMAZING jobs?”

Even if he believed his own post, it’s doubtful he (or anyone in his right mind) would be willing to make the protracted effort needed to earn the credential that would support a starting salary of $220K. If it were a cakewalk, wouldn’t everyone be doing it?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
2012-10-08 19:36:20

I’m the bl00dy fool for taking a p1mp like him seriously!

Quelle surprise!

I shall kick myself thoroughly all evening.

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 19:36:35

P.S. I’m reminded of a guy who earned a PhD in the same program I did. Rumor has it that at one point in his progress towards a degree, he went flat broke, and moved into a closet in the building on campus at Berkeley that houses our degree program.

Rumor further has it that he currently earns in the multiple six figure range as a consultant…

 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 19:39:10

Finance PhD gigs in the wake of the Great Recession must be far more lucrative than they were a couple of decades ago, when a blood relative of mine got one. As I recall, he had to accept a post-doc position overseas because there was nothing — I mean NOTHING — available in the U.S.

 
2012-10-08 19:48:25

They are not lucrative any more.

If anything they were designed to “cash in”.

Physicists are still more valuable. They have “real” training.

 
Comment by Martin
2012-10-09 05:19:38

FPSS,

Physicists have real training but they don’t get paid much.

I feel you don’t want to hear or listen what others say. You have made up your mind and that’s it.

I hope you use better language like other educated people on this blog or you just want to show how illiterate you are by using the language you use.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Cantankerous Intellectual Bomb Thrower™
2012-10-08 19:31:55

“45,000 graduates for only 20,000 legal positions. You do the math. More than 50% have MASSIVE student loans but no jobs as lawyers.

Ditto for the finance MBA’s.”

Martin’s error (assuming the figures he quotes actually apply to some new faculty members employed somewhere — in itself a questionable proposition): Ascribing the average for the winners in the winner-takes-all game to everyone who played.

To get the right answer (as your post suggests), you would need to average the salary outcomes for everyone who gets a b-school PhD, even those who can’t find a job, not only those who end up with positions at Harvard, Chicago, Princeton, Stanford or MIT. Otherwise your statistics are subject to selectivity bias.

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2012-10-08 22:21:26

CIBT, I missed your post yesterday on the article titled:

“Report: Shadow Inventory Looms Over New York, New Jersey”

Thanks for posting it. Here is the link to the study referenced in the article:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/regional/distressed-real-estate/#nis

 
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