The Housing Bubble

I live at the 8,000′ level in Mammoth Lakes

Oh, I understand now. I have only started the book so your message will have more meaning when I am finished, but I understand where you are headed. Such self awareness of childhood behavioral conditioning is quite intriguing. I also really enjoy your writing style. This is gonna be a fun weekend.

Reading comprehension is not her strong suit.

Nor is rug-chompin’, I bet!

Unless of course, they are carrying something chambered in .308 or .30-06.

Really, if the SHTF, you guys are over-rating you and your eight year olds chances of survival, no matter how well the eight year old shoots.

Heck, your neighbors might go full-Galtian on you, and bust a cap in your azz to reduce the competition.

On the one hand you can give him the damn TV he is looking for.

On the other hand you can shoot him, kill him, and then spend the next five years of your life in court professing your innocence.

You pick.

something my 8yo daughter can do at 100 yards

That’s awesome!

On the other hand you can shoot him, kill him, and then spend the next five years of your life in court professing your innocence.

Anything I say is predicated on the physical threat to me or my family. If a mob of rioters and looters approaches my house and my family, and there is no law enforcement there to prevent it, that proves an immediate physical threat and I will do what I have to deter that threat. A legal battle may ensue, but it’s better to be judged by 12 than carried by 6.

Unless of course, they are carrying something chambered in .308 or .30-06.

In addition to the AR, I have a .308 Savage Model 10 with a Trijicon 9x Scope. It is sub MOA accurate. I also have an AK47, chambered in 7.62×39, with full tac kit and Aimpoint. The only way we would be outgunned is if they had a .50 cal… and I’m working on acquiring that. Of course, at $5-10K a pop and $5/round to shoot, that may take a while.

I’m ex-army and my brother-in-law, who lives in the same house, is ex-marine… in a SHTF scenario, whether it be the Zombie apocalypse or the Obama apocalypse, we’ve got the angles covered, as much as they can be anyway.

Can I move in wit youse guys?

I know how to fix ANYTHING, in theory or on paper.

Lovely.

Some of the comments regarding the tweets are priceless:

* Give a liberal a fish and he will riot until he gets more fish.

***or trade the fish for an iPhone5…

******more like crack

********Or a new gold grille!

Just name me 1 African tribe that Loots in America???

Heck where are the Haitians? Oh I guess they are working and no time to riot or loot.

The argument goes that genetically-modified wheat (basically the only kind available in the US anymore) has increased levels of gliadin compared to pre-1970’s wheat strains. The gliadin (an opioid) binds to opioid receptors in the brain to create an addictive-type craving whenever you eat wheat products. Which induces you to eat MORE wheat products, which eventually makes you gain weight. Note, this is NOT celiac disease, which is a whole different process.

So if you want to test the theory, cut the wheat products out of your diet and see if you stop craving them after a week or so. Then eat a piece of bread and see if you get all antsy for more. In any case, if calories in>calories out, you’ll gain weight.

Here’s the paper on which the theory (and the diet gurus it’s spawned) is based:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0143417987900503

Left a reply a couple of hours ago with link to the study. Maybe tomorrow? Short answer is “apparently”.

looks like there is going to be a lot of work in new jersey trying to clean up.Seems like that area was hit the hardest.

Leno said Sandy will be creating more jobs than The One has created in his entire four years.

Leno said Sandy will be creating more jobs than The One has created in his entire four years.

Broken window fallacy?

I assume you do realize that Leno is a comedian?

Just like I came to the conclusion that there was a housing bubble prior to finding this site, I came to my conclusions about global warming prior to finding about Joe Bastardi. However, I do appreciate Ben and Joe. From wikipedia:

Bastardi believes in the cyclical theory of climate and uses this in his long-range forecasts. He predicts two major hurricanes to hit the Northeastern United States by 2015, one of which has already come to pass as hurricane Sandy made landfall in New Jersey in late October of 2012 as the most powerful storm to hit the region in recorded history. He also predicts that with the PDO (Pacific decadal oscillation) cold and the AMO (Atlantic multidecadal oscillation) turning colder, the global temperature will fall to 1970 levels within the next 20-30 years.

The Japanese are not voting for our president, so what they think doesn’t really matter.

so what they think doesn’t really matter.

Today’s Republican talking points about Sandy:

1) The storm really wasn’t that big.

2) It’s really local governments that do the rescue/rebuild work.

3) Looting!!!

Gray is skeptical of current theories of human-induced global warming, which he says is supported by scientists afraid of losing grant funding[5] and promoted by government leaders and environmentalists seeking world government.[6] He believes that humans are not responsible for the warming of the earth and has stated that “We’re brainwashing our children.”[7] He asked, “How can we trust climate forecasts 50 and 100 years into the future (that can’t be verified in our lifetime) when they are not able to make shorter seasonal or yearly forecasts that could be verified?”[8]

Gray said those who had linked global warming to the increased number of hurricanes in recent years were in error. He cites statistics showing that there were 101 hurricanes from 1900 to 1949, in a period of cooler global temperature, compared to 83 from 1957 to 2006 when the earth warmed.[7]

Gray does not say there has not been any warming, but states “I don’t question that. And humans might have caused a very slight amount of this warming. Very slight. But this warming trend is not going to keep on going. My belief is that three, four years from now, the globe will start to cool again, as it did from the middle ’40s to the middle ’70s.”[9]

According to an earlier interview reported by Joel Achenbach, Gray had similarly said that the current warming in the past decades is a natural cycle, driven by a global ocean circulation that manifests itself in the North Atlantic Ocean as the Gulf Stream.[6]

In a December 2006 interview with David Harsanyi of The Denver Post, Gray said, “They’ve been brainwashing us for 20 years, starting with the nuclear winter and now with the global warming. This scare will also run its course. In 15–20 years, we’ll look back and see what a hoax this was.” In this interview, Gray cites the global cooling article in Newsweek from 1975 as evidence that such a scare has happened in the past.[9]

In 2006, Gray predicted a cooling trend by 2009-2010.[9]

Gray has been an active scientist publishing and speaking about weather, hurricanes, and related matters for 60 years. In his presentation to the 7th International Conference on Climate Change sponsored by The Heartland Institute, Gray found virtually no basis to think added CO2 is generating extreme weather events.[10]

My cite to wikipedia did not post for the article about Bill Gray.

It’s really local governments that do the rescue/rebuild work.

You’re losing it Alpha. NPR interviewed the current head of FEMA, Craig Fugate, after the storm. He was asked what was FEMA’s role. His response “To assist and provide aid, at the behest of local and state authorities, during a disaster.” He went on to say “We’re not a National government, we’re a Federal government. The state, the governor is in charge and it’s up to him to ask for and coordinate assistance.”

Take your socialist, centralized government control somewhere else.

Take your socialist, centralized government control somewhere else.

Thanks for proving my point, Rambo.

End FEMA now!

LOL!

“The storm really wasn’t that big”

Republican talking points?

I’ve said that I lived in North Jersey in the 60s and we had a more severe storm there then. There were some still famous storms in the previous century too. I’m not sure where the media gets “worst in history” from. I expect it is from the $$ damage estimates or the fact that Wall Street shut down, not from wind, rain, wave intensity or flooding statistics.

This may have been the best prepared for cyclone in New Jersey’s history. Go Wegmans! All their stores are open.

This post is not endorsed by the Republican Party.

Thanks for proving my point, Rambo.

It’s your socialist mindset that bothers me Alpha. FEMA serves a worthy purpose, but it is subservient to the States… the Governors and Mayors, local authority. This isn’t about semantics or Republican vs. Democrat, it is about Federal control vs. State and local control. And your comments continue to show that you favor Federal control at all levels… essentially a Socialist perspective.

A political and economic theory of social organization that advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole

Federal control of all things, Alpha: Distribution of wealth (taxes, SNAP, Section 8, Medicare, SS), healthcare, disaster aid, energy production, food production, cost of money (Aka the FED), TARP, bailouts of AIG, GM, Chrysler, handouts to Solyndra, etc.

it is about Federal control vs. State and local control.

Which actually has nothing to do with “socialism”. If the state and local governments owned or controlled the businesses, etc, then we’d still have “socialism”.

Federal vs state control is in theory about which works best, but in practice, the rabid supporters of state/local control are usually those who wish to circumvent the Constitution, and its protections to everybody, which the Federal government generally enforces.

State and local govs have a very bad history of protecting their citizens’ constitutional rights. (Jim Crow, anti-sodomy laws, slavery, etc.) However, they have a very strong history of bending to the desires of their “leading” (rich) citizens and businesses. Some like that preference. But they shouldn’t describe themselves as defenders of the Constitution.

There is no reason to believe that centralized government is more virtuous than local government, only more powerful.

There is no reason to believe that centralized government is more virtuous than local government

Except US history.

In the vast majority of cases, the federal government is the protector and enforcer of our Constitutional rights. It’s the nature of the beast, really. I, for one, am glad we have such a Constitution, with our rights clearly expressed, and their enforcement and protection assigned- generally to the federal government.

Which actually has nothing to do with “socialism”. If the state and local governments owned or controlled the businesses, etc, then we’d still have “socialism”.

Indeed. Here’s an example of what I talk: MA passed Romneycare, the model for Obamacare. It has a coverage mandate with a tax penalty if you don’t have coverage. I view this as socialist. I am required to purchase a service by law or pay a tax. That is government control of the exchange of goods and services. However, I can, at any time, leave the State of MA and go to NH which has no mandated health care state law. Leave the socialist state behind for one that embraces personal freedom. I cannot do the same with a Federal law that requires all citizens abide or pay a tax. Starting to see the difference?

Socialism and Centralized authority are the problem, not the solution. FEMA is subservient to State needs. It is for the public good, but no governor is required to utilize FEMA. That isn’t socialism, that is working for the common good. They are not one and the same… government is for the common good. Socialism is about government control.

“Bastardi believes in the cyclical theory of climate”

The “cyclical theory of climate” requires that ALL the dynamic inputs to the system remain within historic ranges. That’s not what’s been happening. Bastardi is a merchant of doubt selling BS to the gullible.

Liability Insurance = Romneycare = Obamacare. Same scam. Remember Obamacare included over 200 Republican amendments even if they didn’t vote on the final bill (have your cake and eat it too). Insurance companies are people too!

North: please clarify “I am required to purchase a service by law or pay a tax” - would you rather not have to pay for police protection and garbage pickup if you were given a choice?

would you rather not have to pay for police protection and garbage pickup if you were given a choice?

As I said in my previous post: Government, in it’s most basic form is “for the common good”. Provide legal and economic structure along with common defense are the basic mandates of all forms of government.

To your question: I pay real estate taxes. Those taxes are what pays for Police, Fire, Garbage pickup, etc in my community. I gladly pay for those services as they serve the common good without infringing on personal liberty. This, to me, is the basis for government. In fact, there is a local ballet question to raise taxes to continue to improve our community. I plan on voting for it because I think our community will benefit from the additional spending.

But when I demonize and decry socialism, I speak of things like Obamacare (and yes, Romneycare in MA). the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community. Taxes, in and of themselves aren’t bad or even socialist. It is the mindset of tax and redistribute at greater and greater levels that is socialist. The US government currently owns stakes in GM, Chrylser, AIG, and Citibank, bought with taxpayer money in the form of bailouts. The government controls the pay of executives in these companies. This is socialism. This is the antithesis of freedom, personal liberty, and opportunity. And as this rot takes hold at higher levels of government, it impacts all of us.

How many here were impacted by Romneycare, when it passed? It was a state-level law brought about by state legislature. Even if MA is socialist (and it is), the rest of the country could go on as it always had. Not so now…

Fox News’ John Stossel Blasts Federal Flood Insurance Program, Plans To Collect His Money Anyway
By Igor Volsky on Nov 1, 2012 at 9:35 am

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/11/01/1121831/stossel-flood-insurance-hypocrisy/

The Federal Flood Insurance Program is a subsidy for wealthy land owners who want to build million dollar vacation homes in flood-prone waterfront areas and don’t want to shoulder the cost because private insurance won’t offer coverage.

The program should be capped at 100% of the value of the median house in the community. No reason the wealthy should receive out-sized benefits.

The program should be capped at 100% of the value of the median house in the community. No reason the wealthy should receive out-sized benefits.

First I’ve heard of it. Why are we subsidizing this if private insurance won’t? I can see why doing so for the “less fortunate” (a need) makes sense, but for million dollar vacation homes (a want)?

Ah, after reading the Stossel piece I see my confusion. You called it a subsidy. It’s a subsidy if the premiums paid can’t meet the payout obligations (which I assume to be the case here). I didn’t realize the homeowners were paying anything but instead were getting “bailed out” by some pool of Fed funds.

Still, even if the premiums paid do meet the obligations, I question why we’d do this for homes that private insurance won’t cover, regardless of income level of the homeowner.

I question why we’d do this for homes that private insurance won’t cover, regardless of income level of the homeowner.

Because the government knows better than private industry. Heck, we bailed out Wall St., saved GM and Chrysler, why not subsidize an insurance fund to bail out flood victim homeowners who live in flood prone areas even though private insurance actuaries and statisticians won’t touch it…

Sandy was a huge storm. It produced the lowest pressure for any extratropical cyclone in the lower 48 by about 20 mb. That pressure was so low that not only did the resulting pressure field bring record storm surge to portions of NY and NJ, it also produced storm force winds on portions of the Great Lakes with waves of 20 to 25 feet.

Bastarti is a climate change crackpot, so much so that “Accu”weather parted company with him.

Jesus loves a good gun-sight. Especially on a sniper rifle.

Reminds me of the quote “If God is for us, who can be against us.”

War is God’s way of teaching Americans geography.

–Ambrose Bierce

War is God’s way of teaching Americans geography.

I’m not sure if that is a commentary on the state of America’s public education or warmongering and empire building…

Disaster is God’s way of teaching politicians the value of government.

Because Jesus was all about blowing up the sick, droning the poor, and colonizing the hungry….

I wonder what Biblical quotes they inscribe on nukes and missiles?

Because Jesus was all about blowing up the sick, droning the poor, and colonizing the hungry….

Didn’t stop the Pope from authorizing the numerous Middle-Age Crusades to free the Holy Land from the Muslims.

Not saying your wrong, just saying…

I wonder what Biblical quotes they inscribe on nukes and missiles?

Revelation 6:8
I looked, and behold, a pale horse! And its rider’s name was Death, and Hades followed him.

“The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and goodwill shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother’s keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee.” — Ezekiel 25:17

It’s the line Jules, a hitman in “Pulp Fiction”, would recite before killing his target.

Kind of long for a telescopic sight though

Kind of long for a telescopic sight though

LOL.

Bible quotes?

Closet conservatives?

because they hafta stay in “cloak”

Is that what they call a white guy pretending to be a black guy on the internet?

See, thats part of the problem, black people have failed to control “the frame”; we allow others to name behaviors before we do.

Then we hafta hide when we practice them.

(((shakin my head)))

Ive been trying to explain the utility of this phenomenon to blk people but its difficult because of our mis-education; SOUNDING like a white person is not the same as THINKING like one. We are not taught that words are tools, that people “think in words” and that without the correct word, people can directly at look at something and still not see it.

Black people are generally still at the Helen Keller “pre Ann Sullivan” stage. We just freak out and get LOUDER because we lack the correct words to describe what we are thinking.

ps– somebody pour some water on me before my head bursts into flames.

(((shakin my head)))

Comment by alpha-sloth
2012-11-01 07:56:05
because they hafta stay in “cloak”

Is that what they call a white guy pretending to be a black guy on the internet?
———————————

Does everyone see this?

This is the great thing about text based communications; once everybody looks the same, all you have to go on is BEHAVIOR.

Just like the Matrix.

The Sloth is commin at me “sideways” because I don’t fit into his “n—-r box.

Don’t feel bad man, it happens all the time. If a black person uses logic instead of emotion, they get accused of being a white person.

I understand your confusion; or is it fear?

Now watch what happens; some white person is gonna hafta vouch for me that Im not white.

Enjoy your white supremacy Sloth (cause it may not last)

Enjoy your white supremacy Sloth (cause it may not last)

What makes you think I’m white?

“somebody pour some water on me before…”

OK, you want sparkling water or will tap water do?

BTW, as self proclaimed spokes person for an entire race of people, your credibility is about zero.

Alpo-Slop is just another pimp pimping the same worn out junk.

Many urban teachers I know actively teach “code switching”: making sure students know the difference between street talk and formal English and know when it is appropriate to use each.

This is far more effective than trying to teach people that the way they speak and the way their families speak is “wrong”.

Spook is the Camille Paglia of the “Black Pride” movement that came out of the sixties — and I don’t mean that in a good way.

There is something pathological about spewing invective against your integrity in order to curry favor with psychopaths — like the half-nekkid news bimbos on Fox. His is rather a sad perspective, but it’s obviously well-practiced, and could certainly make an interesting community college course.

Take it on the road, Spook. I’D pay to hear your stand-up routine.

Spook-

You’re an asset to this board.

It’s interesting what people say, isn’t it? That while it’s okay for them to speak about an entire race of people, it’s not okay for you to do the same.

That figures.

BTW, sfhomowner, it is NOT okay to teach students that one language is appropriate and good in one situation, and another is better elsewhere. It divides people into a “we” versus “they” camp.

Is that the goal here? To perpetuate the divide? Or, is it to make sure that individualism and individual responsibility are negated through racial divide?

There is something pathological about spewing invective against your integrity in order to curry favor with psychopaths — like the half-nekkid news bimbos on Fox. His is rather a sad perspective,

You are a sad perspective to be honest. Here’s a black man who doesn’t fit your mold, so he must be all that, right?
Doesn’t make Spook any righter with his perspective (new or old), but I find it detestable that some people do not think that black people can make up their own minds and think for themselves. Even if it means they are making a mistake. I am not implying Spook is making a mistake with his believes but he’s allowed to make mistakes just like each and every one of us.

“.. it is NOT okay to teach students that one language is appropriate and good in one situation, and another is better elsewhere. It divides people into a “we” versus “they” camp….”

Now HERE’s a crux. Instead of this paternalism under the guise of concern, how about: “it teaches kids to be adaptable, to appreciate differences and be comfortable with them, to accommodate others and respect their particular culture enough to engage it?” Isn’t learning to differentiate and apply critical reasoning what education is all about?

And yes, language DOES matter. You don’t talk to the proprietor of the Arkansas bait shop the same way you talk to the dissertation committee at Stanford (usually) if you want to catch any fish or pick up your fud. And if you try speaking English in rural Changdu, you’re not going to get very far at all. Then there’s pidgin, which brings us back to my original assertion.

That’s right, language DOES matter.

It’s why you don’t want to promote two languages, one for so-called “proper” society and the other not. That’s an insane proposition.

Unless, of course, you’re into perpetuating inequity and class division. Keeping the “they” away from you and the “us” through language divide is highly effective.

First, the government separates blacks from whites via Insta-Skyscraper slums; now it seeks to keep the divide going through the promotion of “society” and “hood” languages.

For who’s benefit, exactly? The black man or woman, or the liberal elitist whitey?

BTW, sfhomowner, it is NOT okay to teach students that one language is appropriate and good in one situation, and another is better elsewhere. It divides people into a “we” versus “they” camp.

That’s ridiculous and you know it.

I like to curse as much as the next truck driver, but I know not to do it at work. That’s code switching. We all do it to some extent.

Instead of teaching kids that black English (or “Ebonics” or “street talk”) is bad or wrong, teach them that different situations require us to act and speak differently.

Entire languages have been wiped out by either intentionally forcing marginalized groups to speak only “white English” (Native American children taken from their parents, put in boarding schools and not allowed to speak their mother tongue as a way to “civilize” them) or by teachers insisting that white English is the “proper English” and everything else is a bastardization that we need to get rid of.

Language is a huge part of culture, and I don’t agree with telling anyone that their language/accent/slang/way of speaking is wrong or bad and that they should discard their way of speaking and assimilate so they can become more like the dominant culture.

That said, in order to be successful, you need to know how to act in different situations. The way you talk to your buddies on the street won’t cut it at a job interview. Teaching kids how to code-switch is effective.

My “mold” of “black man” is not your strawman, Ross. I have no idea who Spook is in real life, but I find his/her rhetoric pandering and entirely too contrived, regardless. Paglia is famous for disparaging the feminist archetype to curry favor with the white male power structure; Spook has aped it against your (not my) stereotype of the urban Negro. Though precious, they both lack authenticity– which was my criticism more than the content of their screeds.

In other words, you can’t criticize the mold or precedent that’s set by some group of wackos?

Neither Paglia nor Spook are curry favoring with white men like you suggest. Then again IIRC Gloria Steinum (Sp?) f’ed a rich white man to finance her magazine or something like that. Maybe Steinum was using her “feministic empowerment” and I bet you are ok with that.

“Code-switch”.

So this is liberal whitey’s latest attempt to prove their cultural understanding and expertise. Huh.

What a crock of sh*t.

The way you talk, it seems you are an expert on the subject. Tell me, how many blacks live in liberal whitey San Francisco?

Trying so hard to be As One with The Hood. It’s embarrassing and condescending. Like Hillary Clinton’s feckless attempts to show her understanding of “blackness” by talking “code”.

Revolting.

Revolting.

Revolting to teach young people the best way to get through a job interview?

As revolting as telling kids that their family’s language or way of speaking is wrong?

It’s not about white people speaking black English or middle class people speaking like they are from the hood - it’s about not assuming that the best way to be is to emulate the rich, white men who are the majority in power.

Maybe what’s revolting to you is the idea that the dominant culture is not the only culture, and that not everyone wants to look or dress or think alike.

There are plenty of inner city schools in wealthy SF, and yes, I work in one of them.

But let’s pick a different example:

There are plenty of gays and lesbians who code switch all the time. Some of us can pass as straight, and do so when needed. Talk with less of a lisp, walk with less of a butch swagger.

Do we enjoy hiding who we are and making our true selves invisible? Of course not.

Do we do so because we need to either get ahead in the world (get a job, sign a lease, etc.) or be safe on the street. Of course.

Should we not act “too gay” all the time, even when we are with our friends? How many children have had others try to beat or tease or bully the gay out of them because their peers thought that they way they talked or walked was different?

Living in a country that has so many different cultures, languages, races, etc. is challenging. The desire for homogeneity given the reality of the United Sates apparently leaves some people revolted.

“It’s why you don’t want to promote two languages, one for so-called “proper” society and the other not. That’s an insane proposition.”

It is appropriate to teach formal, written English so that people can use it in writing resumes. The same writing style would not necessarily be appropriate in a novel.

In the same way, mimicking a speaking style of a subculture is appropriate, whether that subculture is a large corporation or a community. It allows people to better relate to each other.

I don’t understand why you call this insane. People are capable of adapting to the culture around them. Would you call it insane for a man to put on a suit to go to a wedding and to dress more casually to go fishing?

Begs a new definition for “homophobia”.

Should we not act “too gay” all the time

Never mind that, we are going to “fix” you. If only you could fix your BART subway stations and clean all the poop out of the escalators.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/01/us/ex-gay-men-fight-view-that-homosexuality-cant-be-changed.html?ref=homosexuality

SF doesn’t this encourage racist behavior? Since you almost never see or hear any minorities speak proper English.

So why not teach Code switching in SCHOOL? You must speak English while on school premises, slang will not be tolerated and you must write in English or you FAIL…

Isn’t that what the Good suburban schools do…..do inner city schools have some reason they can’t get on the ball?

Many urban teachers I know actively teach “code switching”: making sure students know the difference between street talk and formal English and know when it is appropriate to use each.

This is far more effective than trying to teach people that the way they speak and the way their families speak is “wrong”.

This is a compelling discussion. I agree that language is a signifier, but I don’t think it’s a snap to switch dialects.

I live among formal constructs, being a bookworm with an analytical bent. I speak and think from that perspective as well. It’s calming. “Calm” is a core value, for me.

If I were to open my mouth in the midst of a mob, I would be torn limb from limb even if I had a cue card in my hand from which I could read a script.

The maturer I get, the quieter I get.

I guess 90 million people are not going to vote because they figured out each candidate is backed by wall street and neither one will actually help the middle class.

FiveThirtyEight state poll survey, chance of winning Presidency:

Obama 78.4%

Romney 21.6%

Ladbrokes casino odds, US presidential winner:

Obama 1 to 4 (bet $4 to win $1)

Romney 11 to 4 (bet $4 to win $11)

Oops, forgot my faves (for those of you who think national tallies count):

Nickelodeon kids poll (accurate in 5 of last 6 elections)

Winner- Obama 65% of vote

Scholastic News kids poll (accurate in every election but 2, since 1940!)

Winner- Obama 51% of vote
Romney 45%

In the Denver Post Blog rare honestly from your team:

“Denver Mayor Michael Hancock has been busy pushing for President Obama’s re-election — appearing on stage Tuesday before former President Bill Clinton’s speech and even heading to Milwaukee on Sunday to push for the Badger State’s vote.

Denver Mayor Michael Hancock stumps in Milwaukee on Sunday. Shown here with Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Wisconsin State Rep. JoCasta Zamarripa

Hancock even broke news on that Wisconsin trip, telling voters if the election were to be held right now the president would lose Wisconsin and its coveted 10 electoral votes.”

If the Democrats are losing Wisconsin, they are virtually certainly losing Ohio since Rasmussen has consistently posted higher numbers for Republicans in Ohio.

Do you really have so little patience that you have to spend this much time trying to figure out/brag about who might win an election that will be over in less than a week?

My family was waiting to pick me up at my high school when I finished taking the SATs. My dad had managed the timing exactly right and he was pretty much right next to the front door as I got out of the building. I jumped in the car and said, “I don’t know and I don’t care” meaning that I didn’t know how I had done, didn’t care much at that moment and was NOT going to talk about it. That is where we are now. Unless you are directly involved in get out the vote or voter suppression efforts in a swing state, your only meaningful action is to vote and wait.

I will plan my votes on the MD referenda questions this weekend. I’ll go to the polls Tuesday. I’ll wake up Wednesday and find out what happened. The rest of this effort is wasted. The Portrait Gallery is having activities about the War of 1812 on Saturday. I have reservations for a lecture at Air and Space. There is a film festival at the National Zoo. If my internet connection isn’t back up at home, I can call up Comcast and yell at a hapless customer service rep if I want. Super double coupons at Harris Teeter this week. Lots of stuff to do.

Do you really have so little patience that you have to spend this much time trying to figure out/brag about who might win an election that will be over in less than a week?

I enjoy poking truth holes in the propaganda. But I don’t spend much time on it.

Polly-

Why do you care if Dan talks about polls during election season? You say you don’t care, yet you take the time to respond.

Perhaps you ought to spend some time thinking about your own actions. Here you sit, letting it be known how you are going to indulge yourself this weekend.

This after informing people of your worry and plight over Hurricane Sandy.

Do you not see the disconnect? You expect us to care about you; now you’re talking self indulgence. It comes across as so disingenuous.

Why aren’t you in New Jersey or New York helping others clean up the mess? DC is not all that far away.

You have the time. You have the money. Go.

If you knew anything at all about providing services to people in emergency situations, you would know that the least useful thing you can do in the aftermath is to just show up and try to help. Volunteers have to be housed and fed and provided with clean water and all those other things that are in short supply after an emergency. It is nearly always best to leave such things to the professionals. The second most useless thing you can do is send “stuff.” The emergency responders have stuff stockpiled. The bottleneck is getting it delivered. If you send them stuff, they have to organize and sort it and then transport it longer distances than the stuff they already have in place. Uses up way more resources. They’ll take it so they don’t insult the donor and because the exercise raises their profile with possible donors, but they really wish you wouldn’t. The most useful thing you can do is send money to the people who are doing the actual work of search and rescue, housing people who cannot live at home, feeding people who are refugees or working in the disaster area, etc. You have no idea what I am doing along those lines and it is none of your business.

As for the rest of your comments, I am sorry that you are so disconnected from any human feeling that you have no care to know that a person with whom you interact regularly is safe. I find I do care about such things, and so I posted a few brief messages to let people know that they shouldn’t worry if they didn’t hear from me and that I was fine once I was able to do so. Please feel free to ignore such posts if you do not care. They are not meant for you specifically.

And I asked the original question because I honestly wanted to know the answer. I know why Dan posts about climate change. He is trying to pursuade others to agree with his opinion. I have no idea why anyone would constantly post about who is projected to win an election. It isn’t about who would be a better president for the country. It isn’t trying to convince anyone to vote in one way or another (unless you are of the “yeah, my guy won” pursuasion which, given the number of Gary Johnson voters on this blog is not a common attitude here). I just don’t understand the mentality. I’d love to know why Dan or Bear or whoever does it. Alpha explained it was just a poking holes exercise. That is fine. I’m curious what the other motivations are.

Peak bad mood on the HBB.

Why does it matter if you don’t understand Dan’s motivations? Who is he hurting?

I don’t understand your strong predeliction toward everything legal. But so what? You want to talk about it, and that’s good enough.

So have you yet booked your flight/train/bus to New Jersey yet? Or are you going to assume that someone else is going to do it?

How about buying some overnight hotel rooms for people who lost their homes?

You actually think there are any empty hotel rooms? Seriously? I already told you that going to the area impacted is the worst thing you can do. I have some experience in this area. I ususally bring up the legality of a situation when people are saying that the government should DO something about a situation. Since the government should be following the law, it is always relevant. Not that what is legal is always the right answer, but if you want to know why a government agency isn’t doing what you want them to do, finding out that they can’t (because of the law) should be of some interest to you.

If you don’t want to answer my original question for yourself, then ignore it. You don’t like me. I get that. I also don’t care.

I don’t think anyone on this board adds much more value to discussions than Polly. I for one appreciate a legal voice of reason when people spout off what people or banks or the government “should” be doing.

Why is everyone so pissy around here lately? Can’t we all just get along?

My turn to be prissy:

“One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate”

I’m calling BS on this one. 1% may feel the freedom to go to the polls and vote for someone not of the two main parties, but I bet a lot more of us than usual will be voting 3rd party. There’s too many angry/frustrated folks out there.

People post/propagandize poll results that favor their candidate because they feel it may discourage others from voting for the other guy.On a grander scale it’s very effective.
Beth, weren’t you the one bitching that a tornado in Kansas was more devastating than the impending tropical storm sandy? all of a sudden you’re the only one with compassion?
Polly, please continue to educate those of us that don’t understand the nuances of law.

Came late to this one, but thoroughly enjoy Polly’s precision knuckle rapping (as always) when the puffery gets out of hand.

LOL.

‘The second most useless thing you can do is send “stuff.” The emergency responders have stuff stockpiled. The bottleneck is getting it delivered. If you send them stuff, they have to organize and sort it and then transport it longer distances than the stuff they already have in place. Uses up way more resources. They’ll take it so they don’t insult the donor and because the exercise raises their profile with possible donors, but they really wish you wouldn’t.’

Does your comment apply to the stuff that Mitt Romney proposed to send from Ohio to Somewheresville, New Jersey?

Posted at 06:41 PM ET, 11/01/2012
‘Let them eat canned goods’: Romney’s clueless storm response
By Susan Brooks Thistlethwaite

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney helps to gather donated goods as he attends a storm relief campaign event in Kettering, Ohio, on Oct. 30, 2012. (AFP/GETTY IMAGES)

Mitt Romney held a photo op in Kettering, Ohio, “accepting donations” for victims of Hurricane Sandy. Many items were purchased by campaign staffers from a nearby store and attendees to the rally-turned-relief-effort were asked to bring non-perishable foods and other items for those affected by the super-storm.

Some organizations, while they appreciate assistance from the public, find that stockpiling goods and other items an ineffective way to engage in disaster relief. The American Red Cross is asking for financial donations in the wake of Sandy. If the Romney campaign wanted to best immediate impact, they would have far better served the relief effort by contributing $5,000 in cash instead of spending it on supplies.
…

“If the Democrats are losing Wisconsin, they are virtually certainly losing Ohio since Rasmussen has consistently posted higher numbers for Republicans in Ohio.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/31/obama-leads-romney-by-eight-in-wisconsin-poll-shows/

I’d like to be “losing” in Wisconsin while leading by 8 percentage points.

Max … maybe it because that its finally sunk in we will have 4 more years of he same no matter who wins….Its really depressing to know help MAY come 4 years down the road…

I’m glad i prepped for this storm even though we had very little damage, got tons a canned food a couple of the 5 gal water bags….coleman stove 2 car jumper batteries LED light that runs on 12V cigarette …so a few days without electricity we would have have been fine…

Why is everyone so pissy around here lately? Can’t we all just get along?

78 percent thought the president did either “excellent” or “good” with his response to the storm

Curses! Uh…LOOTING!!!…Small storm really!!!…Locals and church groups really do all the work!!!…Uhh…Libya, dammit! Everyone’s supposed to focus on Libya!!!…oohhh, what a world…

Sorry if by local officials you did not understand that I also meant the state government. I was unclear but when I talked about Katrina I mentioned that the mayor and the governor have the primary roles. The National guard is under the state’s control unless they have been nationalized and they have not been in this matter.

Tell that to the Mayor of Hoboken and the people there that are right now being rescued by the National Guard.

What he said… the National Guard reports to the Governor of the State, unless Nationalized under Federal authority, which only happens when a Guard unit is deployed overseas.

I said this yesterday, but all relief efforts are coordinated through State and local channels. Even FEMA. You think FEMA understands where the needs are better than the Mayor of Hoboken or the Governor? FEMA is responsible for stockpiling supplies and staging those supplies. Who do you think delivers them to the people in need? Local Fire and Police, National Guard, etc.

As an aside, I once met a woman who bought a particular breed and color of dog because it matched her furniture.

No joke.

There are probably plenty of people who think that way.

Most people get dogs that look like themselves. It’s funny and sometimes creepy.

I don’t think you’re clever, but I do think you’re too smart to be cutting yourself in public and using race as the excuse.

“I do think you’re too smart to be cutting yourself in public and using race as the excuse.”

I can use race about as well as an inmate can use prison; thats why I have no choice but to use the truth. No problem among people can be solved until the race problem is solved, and the only way to do that is to insure the practice of racism results in loss for all rather than profit for any.

Thats my job. It should be YOUR job too; but… “I understand”.

The 1st step is ending the parent/child arrangement between white people and nonwhite people. Im trying to do that and you wanna stop me but… “I understand”

Black people need to be weaned off government, but more importantly, we need to be weaned off white people. That big white teat is drying up anyway so we might as well do it now.

Why should we wait till we’re forced to do it?

The jig is up.

Its coming.

“…ending the parent/child arrangement between white people and nonwhite people…”

President Obama would probably disagree with you on that one, as would the 27% of Californians under age 18 who are self-described as being of indetermanent/mixed ethnicity. The “solution” to racism is happening before our eyes, Spook; take a walk around Beverly Hills (or Rio) some day and see for yourself what the future holds. Money, mobility, and education are great equalizers. So are hormones and proximity.

Very thoughtful post, thanks. Just curious, are you in the military/law enforcement?

“Just curious, are you in the military/law enforcement?”

LOL!

no to both; but then again, there ain’t no civilians in a race war, so to that extent, we are all military/law enforcement.

I resemble that remark. I’m not in a race war. I distribute contempt equally to everybody, regardless of race, who is either a manipulator or who is easily manipulated.

Facts are our friends.

He said code officer, not community organizer.

PEX

Az, if you are making a material transition from galvanized pipe to copper pipe you can use a dielectric union as previously mentioned. I highly recommend using these, if at all, at appliances (Water heater, etc). Never use them in a concealed location as the neoprene gasket shrinks over time.
Better to use a 6″ long brass nipple to make the transition.
That’s the code (at least for domestic water).

It’s a way for people to dislike him for being black, but not be a racist.

I want to see his 6th grade transcripts…….

Where is his baptismal certificate? We all know he’s really a Muslim, right?

he’s really a Muslim, right

Maybe not, but he’s really a communist, which you would know if you watched the DVD we mailed you that we posted a link for above.

Do communists get circumsised?

+1

But Bush and Clinton weren’t born in Kenya like The One was!

Tx, always a military sci-fi fan!

Lucas also produced “Red Tails.” That one would have been much better if it was a Disney film.

For one thing, Disney would have rewritten the script. Which was beyond bad.

Disney isn’t all big budget hits… think John Carter.

The problem with Star Wars post-episode 6 is the source material (aka all the novels written post Return of the Jedi) aren’t all that great.

I loved the Avengers and Iron Man, etc., but that has much to do with Marvel as it does Disney. You need good material to work from and Marvel has that in spades. Unfortunately, Hollywood is recycling old movies (Fright Night, for example) and pushing old sources (Prometheus, as another). Need something fresh and new.

The problem with Star Wars post-episode 6 is the source material (aka all the novels written post Return of the Jedi) aren’t all that great.

I did like the Yuuzhan Vong arc, but you’re right, most of the novels were pretty weak.

But in Star Wars case, the books aren’t the source material. The movies are the source material. You can write the scripts to 7,8, and 9 without referring to anything written if you want to.

Now, if they get Joss Whedon to reboot the prequilogy, so we can erase the existing 3 abominations, that would be just grand.

You renting from the bank now and you’ll be renting from the bank then.

Enjoy your losses.

when I am 80 I’d rather have a reverse mortgage

Assuming that reverse mortgages are still around at that point.

I wouldn’t count on it.

After the first @ss-reaming on losses on those puppies, they shall “cease to be offered”.

Hey Faster… I assume by your posting you survived Sandy intact?

I posted yesterday. We’re fine.

Was it scary? Yes, definitely.

And the loss of life was minimal for an event of this magnitude in such a high-density population area.

I treat the deaths of people who stepped outside to post pictures on their Twitter account or the guy that decided to go out into the water on the jet-ski with the full FPSS™ scorn that it deserves.

Seriously, people?!?

I treat the deaths of people who stepped outside to post pictures on their Twitter account or the guy that decided to go out into the water on the jet-ski with the full FPSS™ scorn that it deserves.

I didn’t see that on the news. Are you saying that some of the deaths were Darwin Award winners?

Glad to here you made it… same goes for those other NY/NJ resident posters.

ugh, hear, not here.

Are you saying that some of the deaths were Darwin Award winners?

There were more than a “few” Darwin Award winners. It’s up there in percentages.

The worst of it is that there were kids whose parents deserve the Darwin Award. Except it was the kids that died not the parents.

That’s just tragic.

I saw that. Parents were driving on Staten Island Monday night, trying to get to a shelter and their car got flooded. Mom put the 2-yo and 4-yo children on the roof of the stalled car and a big wave swept them off. The kids drowned…

Damn fool parents should have evacuated to a shelter Sunday night or Monday morning or just stayed in place and hoped for the best. Being a parent of two children myself, I have a hard time with this one.

The calls you are getting now will be nothing in comparison to the calls you will get if you let them do the appraisal.

Considering the majority of people buying are going with 3.5% Down Payments on FHA loans (see recent loan origination stats), I would question this. I think Polly is the exception, not the rule regarding buyers on the sidelines with large down payments.

The article that I read didn’t specify the amount of the down payment. However, I would note that Zelman isn’t a perma-housing cheerleader. During the downturn she got the nickname “Poison Ivy” for being so negative on housing, and during the Q4 2006 Toll Brother’s conference call, she asked Bob Toll what Kool Aid he was drinking. Her estimate of 3 million is credible given the sheer number of renters in the US.

Perhaps it’s not such a bad idea for relatively wealthy people to become perma-renters.

Sounds like an endless parade of suckers getting ready to join the debt parade.

Suckers or not, let’s not get off topic.

The question was how in the world can people afford the homes that would need to be built to create the housing boom that Zandi predicts.

The math shows that you only need 10% of the renting population to decide that they wanted to buy a house over the next 4 years, that would be more than enough to absorb the housing that would be built during a housing boom.

Can 10% of renters buy if they so chose over the next 4 years?

IMHO, it is a question of desire, not ability.

Because it takes such a relative small percentage of the rental pool to take the plunge into ownership to generate the demand necessary for significant construction, all the discussion about household budget constraints is misplaced.

Said another way, not all renters have a household budget constraint keeping them from buying…and you only need 10% who don’t (have the constraint) and choose to buy over a 4 year period to create Zandi’s boom.

Judge the purchase decision, don’t judge the purchase decision, it doesn’t matter…but don’t say the level of demand required for Zandi’s boom to occur is impossible, because it’s not.

Well 10 percent of people could just decide to buy the iphone 5 and there would be a boom… but apple is cutting forecasts… Logic fail…

For what it is worth, I assume that she was coached to say what she said and they filmed her when she was crying about something else. It just doesn’t make sense for a four year old to be able to give a first and last name for both of them and to be that upset about the chatter. Four year olds pick up on adult emotions and attitudes and can be coached to repeat their words, but they don’t get that over invested in the details.

Whenever I do that, I get called a socialist.

You socialist!

Just kidding. Partisan politics can be frustrating… the good news is that the election will be over in a less than a week.

That’s Racist®

Think about who really controls the CIA. I don’t think the executive branch has been very effective over the decades. Who sets their agenda? Presidential administrations come and go and yet only about .05% rotate out with each R or D elected and only then it’s mostly just a director and a few upper level staff. Meanwhile the mission goes on and on, year in, year out. Based on their past activities I don’t think we will know what the real Libya story is for a long time. This time it was the State Dept. Next time it might be Treasury Dept., Commerce Dept, Exxon or Caterpillar covering their operations. It’s all happened before. Frankly I don’t think Romney has the skill or the courage to stand up against the world most powerful paramilitary organization. Term limited Obama might.

“Think about who really controls the CIA.”

SYRIANA - Trailer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTa2PTcycyI

Yep.

Actually it sounds more fascist to me than communist, but those are the leaders we elect and the paths we choose.

you pour the bucket from up on high

Dude,

Why not find out what people are actually going through? Where are those people on the 20th floor going to go to fill their buckets?

It’s such a non-issue.

If you are without power for a day or two, maybe. But longer than that, and especially in a place like NYC with millions of people without power, waste disposal is not a “non-issue”.

Failure to properly dispose of human wastes can lead to epidemics of such diseases as typhoid, dysentery, and diarrhea. At the same time, sewage must be disposed of in ways that will prevent contamination of water supplies
used for drinking, cooking, bathing, laundering, and other domestic purposes.

Emergency Sewage Disposal

Water flush toilets cannot be used when water
service is interrupted. The water remaining in the fixture is not sufficient to flush the wastes down the sewer.

Even if water is available, local authorities may ask you not to use flush toilets, wash basins, and other fixtures connected with soil pipes. The sewer mains may be broken or clogged, which would make it impossible to carry off such waste; or water may be needed for fire fighting or other
emergencies. It is necessary for every family to know emergency methods of waste disposal in case such conditions arise.

From the bathtub which they should’ve filled before the storm. Are you listening to anything?

A bathtub holds about 100 gallons. A bucket is about 3-4 gallons.

That’s 25 flushes.

You will survive just fine flushing twice a day. It’s called an immune system, honey!

You will definitely manage 72 hours. You will even manage a week if you are sufficiently conservative.

You’re a total embarassment to the stereotype of a tough rough lesbo!

Got lipstick?

You will definitely manage 72 hours. You will even manage a week if you are sufficiently conservative.

I can manage just fine thank you.

It remains to be seen how many people in NY Area filled their bathtubs and how long the power will be out. My 76 year old mother can manage the 10 flights of stairs (no elevator due to power outage), but Con Ed is predicting that many will not get power until next Monday.

Egocentrism is characterized by preoccupation with one’s own internal world. Egocentrics regard themselves and their own opinions or interests as being the most important or valid. Self-relevant information is seen to be more important in shaping one’s judgments than do thoughts about others and other-relevant information. Egocentric people are unable to fully understand or to cope with other people’s opinions and the fact that reality can be different from what they are ready to accept.

You didn’t bother to deal with the facts. Attack the person instead. That’s failure, honey!

You’re a total embarassment to the stereotype of a tough rough lesbo!

Don’t you hate it when people refuse to conform to your stereotypes?

Yes, especially the clueless unscientific rug-chompin’ failures!

Failure: The end result of a catastrophic financial decision from which recovery isn’t possible.

Hey, sfhomowner, are you a CERT too? A shout-out to you from a Tucson CERT member.

No just a NERT (Neighborhood Response Team)

The flip-side is if the insurance industry pushes higher premiums and never has to pay out, (i.e. reporting record profits), eventually their customers will find a cheaper alternative or just go naked instead of paying the inflated premiums.

This isn’t re-insurance, but for example, I recently switched auto insurance to reduce my policy premium by 10%. There is an upper bound to what anyone, including insurance companies, are willing to pay…

It’s the free-market, darling!

You want regulation for the insurance industry because of a lack of payout but you don’t want regulation for climate change.

That’s just a little too hypocritical, sweetcakes!

Something for nothing doesn’t exist.