The Housing Bubble

most of the time it is cheaper and more convienient to give stuff away. Who wants to ruin the weekend trying peddle stuff on the front lawn?

Ox because delivery is included in the price when you buy it new….so how do you get it down from a 6th floor walk up?

Do you pay movers? So you give it away… Even Ethan Allan and i saw a Pool table on the 5th floor..

Nobody will climb 5 flights for Ikea…

Even Ethan Allan

We once bought some stuff from Ethan Allen. Never again. Almost everything arrived damaged and they had some guy come and touch it up. And some stuff was outright defective.

Or broyhill or any expensive brand you can think of you can find for free in NYC at least once a month.. but its never in an elevated building for free

aNYCdj

Do you worry about bedbugs?

No some of his best friends are bedbugs.

Sorry couldn’t resist, I’ll get my coat.

SF so far never had them….but I have some friends that do this for a living, move the free stuff to a ground floor storage facility then have a real garage sale.

They are also one of the authorized truck divers/ movers at the big Chelsea Flea market on weekends.

I suspect bone density. I had a black friend in college I tried to teach to swim. The first step was to show him he could float. And he did - about 3 inches below the surface of the water.

Black people can swim, but they have to work a little harder at it.

Was at a BBQ with a group of OC lifeguards (that all-white 200K-a-year fratboys club) when Anthony Ervin won Olympic Gold in the 50m freestyle. Coulda heard a pin drop….

Suspect the dearth has to do with the fact that po’ folk usually don’t have backyard lap pools, country clubs, private coaches, high school swim teams et al readily available to them.

Lack of access to pools and lessons sounds more plausible than bone density.

Both my kids took swimming lessons for years and it was not cheap. But drowning is the second leading cause of death for children, after car accidents.

Around here there are many Spanish-speaking and Japanese surfers. Very few blacks in the line up.

Got me wondering, so here is what I found:

Why don’t black Americans swim?

A month ago, six African-American teenagers drowned in a single incident in Louisiana, prompting soul-searching about why so many young black Americans can’t swim.

USA Swimming/University of Memphis study found ethnic differences
68.9% of African-American children with no or low ability to swim
57.9% of Hispanic children
41.8% of white children
Drowning is second greatest cause of accidental death in children under 14
African-American children aged 5 to 14 3.1 times more likely to drown

The US has almost 3,500 accidental drownings every year, almost 10 a day. But according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the fatal drowning rate of African-American children aged five-14 is three times that of white children.

Unlike the UK, where learning to swim is enshrined in the national curriculum except in Scotland, the ultimate responsibility in the US often lies with parents.

Fear factor

Many black parents are not teaching their children to swim.
Some might assume the fundamental reasons would be lack of money for swimming lessons or living in areas where there were no pools, but the reality is more complex.

“Fear of drowning or fear of injury was really the major variable,” says Prof Carol Irwin, a sociologist from the University of Memphis, who led the study for USA Swimming.

Swimming never became a part of African- American recreational culture” Typically, those children who could not swim also had parents who could not swim.”Parents who don’t know how to swim are very likely to pass on not knowing how to swim to their children,” says Ms Anderson.

In focus groups for the study, Prof Irwin said many black parents who could not swim evinced sentiments like: “My children are never going to learn to swim because I’m scared they would drown.”

“The history of discrimination… has contributed to the drowning and swimming rates,” says Prof Wiltse. In his work he identified two periods of a boom in swimming rates in the US - in the 1920s and 1930s when recreational swimming became popular and the 1950s and 1960s when the idea of swimming as a sport really took off. The first boom was marked by the construction of about 2,000 new municipal pools across the nation. “Black Americans were largely and systematically denied access to those pools,” he notes.

“Swimming never became a part of African- American recreational culture.”

In the northern US that segregation in pools ended in the 1940s and early 1950s, but many white swimmers responded by abandoning the municipal pools and heading off to private clubs in the suburbs where segregation continued to be enforced. After the race riots of the 1960s, many cities did start building pools in predominantly black areas, says Prof Wiltse, but there was still a problem. Many of the new pools were small - often only 20 by 40ft (six by 12m) and 3.5ft (1m) deep.

Propagation of incorrect scientific theories such as black people being much less buoyant
Historic factors going as far back as slaves not being allowed to learn to swim
Denial of access to pools in 1920s and 30s causing ripple effect to present day
Lack of municipal pools in predominantly black neighbourhoods in 1960s onwards
Perception of swimming as elitist or white sport

“Propagation of incorrect scientific theories such as black people being much less buoyant”

My sister is less buoyant than I am and she swims fine. Bone density is not the whole story, but it could be a contributing factor.

My friend could have been an outlier. But studies have been done that show greater bone density for blacks than for whites and Asians. Blacks are less likely to develop osteoporosis.

http://jcem.endojournals.org/content/82/2/429.abstract

Cultural factors and availability of opportunities to learn to swim are things amenable to change.

“I suspect bone density.”

I am skeptical of this. My own buoyancy’s greatest variable is how much air is in my lungs.

“studies have been done that show greater bone density for blacks than for whites and Asians. Blacks are less likely to develop osteoporosis.”

This is why they are sending black people into outer space.

“Suspect the dearth has to do with the fact that po’ folk usually don’t have backyard lap pools, country clubs, private coaches, high school swim teams et al readily available to them.”

I had none of the above and I was able to learn to swim. When I lived in a mixed race neighborhood in suburban houston as a youth, we had a neighborhood pool, I never noticed any swimming deficiencies in the blacks or hispanics, they were summer fish just like the evil white kids.

“Was at a BBQ with a group of OC lifeguards (that all-white 200K-a-year fratboys club) when Anthony Ervin won Olympic Gold in the 50m freestyle. Coulda heard a pin drop….”

Classic…a rich upper class white sh.t talking OC lifeguards and insinuating that they were white swim-premacists.

“People should be held accountable for the debts they incur.”

+1 And they should pay income tax on their charge-offs too!

Debt and bankruptcy have been worked out by greater minds than yours.

The core reasoning was that creating even more desperate people who cannot repay debts through no fault of their own (illness, natural disaster, job loss) also creates an unstable society as well as an indenture, a system only one step removed from slavery.

Believe it or not, you could easily find one day find yourself in this situation. A chance to start over is a VERY important aspect of civilization.

“A chance to start over is a VERY important aspect of civilization.”

It is also one of the keys to the high rate of entreprenuership in the US.

Pssst… they are.

who is going to pay for the bailouts and when do they start paying?

“who is going to pay for the bailouts and when do they start paying?”

With a jar of peanut butter costing $8 I thought we already did start paying.

Housing, Diminishing Returns and Opportunity Cost

By Charles Hugh Smith

09/21/2012

Saving the banks by dumping trillions into housing is classic marginal return. Since the mechanism is broken—housing as the “wealth effect” generator and the source of billions in profits for banks—every $1 trillion in subsidies, give-aways, guarantees and mortgage purchases by the Fed yield fewer benefits to the real economy.

For example, how are those 3% down payment, low-interest FHA mortgages working out? All praise to the new subprime – 1 out of 6 FHA insured loans is now delinquent. Yup, defaults are rising and the taxpayers will be bailing out the banks once again to the tune of tens of billions of dollars.

This raises the question of the opportunity cost of squandering trillions on mortgages and banks: what else could the nation have done with those trillions?Something with a higher return, perhaps, such as upgrading the nation’s electrical grid? Something that actually generated sustainable growth because it was a high-yield investment and not a bail-out of fraud, friction and malinvestment?

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/charles-hugh-smith/housing-diminishing-returns-opportunity-cost - 31k

Ox boooobs jobs need to be paid back..but cancer surgery …come on DIO only a very very small percentage took out the money for real emergencies, so lets throw them a bone once in a while….keep hope alive.

Now I would go after those who have scammed the system by living rent free for years that truly Offends me as a renter.

More than half of all bankruptcies are caused by medical costs.

NEVER bet your house on a business you own.

NEVER.

“NEVER bet your house on a business you own.”

Schwarzenegger leveraged his house to the hilt to finance his movie, “Pumping Iron.” In his case it was the right move.

Exceptions do not make the rule.

9 out 10 new businesses fail. Would YOU bet YOUR house on those odds?

But you have to admit that Schwarzenegger (who’s name you may have noticed means “black black-man”) pumped the hell out of that iron. Many of those businesses that fail do so because they only pump the iron half way.

Ahnode also had the backing of Joe Wieder’s closet empire um, backing him.

Incorporating won’t keep you from blowing all your money trying to keep your business alive, if you choose to do so.

Where I live, jaywalkers are fair game. Hit one and it’s their fault. The courts will back you up.

Pedestrians here have only one right: cross with the light. You cannot walk in the street, you never have the right of way (exception above) and getting hit will be your fault.

Quite a few people are killed here every year. I really love the ones who try and cross an 8 lane highway.

“Where I live, jaywalkers are fair game. Hit one and it’s their fault. The courts will back you up.”

Kind of a “Stand your Ground” on wheels.

Oh heck, I’m as white as they come and I walk out in front of the Condo Kidz if they are speeding down my street. It’s called traffic calming and it works a lot better than a speed trap in the age of twitter.

It gets their attention and they apparently tweet I’m on a rampage and slow down for a couple of days. Just doing my civic duty.

It’s another way of pizzing on the fire hydrant.

Maybe it was diverting scarce police resources to the marathon in the middle of this mess.

Sorry it is Friday. I think after being stuck in traffic for hours yesterday when HOV 3 was also in affect and not having any gasoline left, many decided to have a three day weekend. Until someone can show me that almost as many people went to work today as yesterday, that is my opinion.

From a Drudge link, I guess that is why the call it “con” edison:

Looters have taken advantage of the confusion and desperation by dressing as Con Edison workers and breaking into houses on the pretext that they were doing electrical repairs. Sushko reports that around 15 people have been arrested for looting.

When Hurricane Katrina struck downtown New Orleans, a huge issue that we saw unfold in the days after was the problem of looting and violence in the streets. Has New York seen anything like that in the past few days?

It has. Sadly it did. From what I understand there have been 15 arrests so far in the outer boroughs of New York City for people who were looting and were arrested. Here are a few stories that I’ve heard. People actually dressed up as Con Edison power utility workers during the actual storm and in the hours after it passed and went and looted apartments that way.

Bloomberg’s focus has been on the Evils of Big Gulps.

Look at New York City today.

For those who live there: aren’t you glad that your tax money pays for priorities such as Big Gulps?

And, aren’t you pleased that billions of federal “infrastructure money” went to pay off unionists who now won’t let non-union workers help NYC get back online?

I wonder how many of these non-union laborers came in from flyover country on their own dime?

People wanting to help New York City residents being turned away.

By the People Who Care.

“From what I understand there have been 15 arrests so far in the outer boroughs of New York City for people who were looting and were arrested.”

Not to excuse it, but it is mostly in neighborhoods that have ongoing crime problems. There are lots of areas in and around NYC that tourists never see and are like third world countries.

Maybe it was diverting scarce police resources to the marathon in the middle of this mess.

They should cancel the marathon, IMHO.

But being a marathon runner myself (and late to long-distance running - didn’t start until I was in my 40’s), I can say that one of the advantages of training to run long distances is that I can get from A to B without gas nor bicycle, all I need is a pair of running shoes.

Have to park 10 blocks away? No problem, sprint it.
No car and need to get somewhere 5-7 miles away. Run it.

I am thrilled with the freedom that comes with the ability to run far.

I do not run anymore (hard on Knees) but I still think that a 5-7 mile walk is fine. I do walk at a brisk place sometimes faster than people walk.

I do not run anymore (hard on Knees)

For every pound of weight loss there is a 4 pound reduction of pressure on knee and other joints. I don’t think I could continue to run long distances if I gained a bunch of weight.

I’ve been on and off glucosamine enough times to notice that it really makes a difference, too. Takes at least a month of taking it to take effect.

I am in my 50’s and do not have any health issues other than acid reflux. (BP of 115/74) I go to the gym and a twenty something will be pushing 60 pounds on a machine and I will max it out at 250 pounds. I can push about 435 pounds with my legs. I am heavier than when I use to run 10 miles a day but it is muscle in my upper body. I even set off an alarm at the airport about a year ago and it was just muscle that I guess was too dense. I do feel the extra weight on the knees despite it not being fat.
BTW, Spook I sink like a rock in a pool but I can swim underwater. Not all white men can swim.

A-dan, the reflux may be a reaction to wheat and/or gluten. I was on Prilosec for over a decade. I went off wheat and haven’t needed the drugs for almost a year.

I’m very grateful to no longer depend on a pharmaceutical supply chain. Maybe a country boy can survive, but he can’t grow his own Prilosec.

It is Oxide but thanks for the tip. It is also caused by a genetic trait that I share with my family that my stomach does not completely close. I can’t eat the hottest foods for lunch but if I have dinner and try to sleep within about five hours, I am going to pay the price.

I just went off prilosec a few months ago. I was worried about liver damage being caused by long term use. I actually feel better just using tums, within moderation, and regulating my eating times. I even tried eating an apple around bedtime since I heard it might work and for some weird reason it does help. My love of salmon also causes some problems but there is no way I am cutting wild Alaskan salmon out of my diet. My father had high blood pressure most of his life even though he was on medication and had a heart attack at 50. I think the eating of salmon is a major reason, I do not. There were other reasons such as the fact that he used Rolaids to treat his acid reflux and his doctors never pointed out the sodium contained within them. Of course, the transfats caused everyone in his generation problems.

BTW, Spook I sink like a rock in a pool but I can swim underwater.
———

Me too Dan. I can swim pretty good because I adapted a style to compensate for my desnsity. I try to keep a pretty full breath in my lungs at all times and also stay low in the water like a croc… if you don’t float too well, you need to be taught to not fight the water which is what a lot of people do; then they get tired.

BTW, did anyone else play that underwater distance swimming game where you push off the wall, swim underwater as far as you can and then stand up and let the next person do it and swim between your legs if they can make it that far?

On those “L” shaped pools we worked our way up to doing the length and a half. We had about 5 people. The key was alway “getting to the legs” because if you got that far,you knew you could make it.

to compensate for my desnsity

Ok from everything I’ve read the bone density thing is an urban myth.

Even if black people did have a higher body density that would still have nothing to do with swimming ability.

The BBC article I posted previously is more credible, and there isn’t just one simple answer, but a confluence of factors, but racial body type has nothing to do with it.

Leave it to a white woman to tell me more about myself than my own experiences.

(((shakin my head)))

not bone density, but muscle mass.

And furthermore, you seem to be one of the many sorry SOB’s who spend their lives worrying about other peoples business.

Well there isn’t much inflation if you base it on the retail price.

But just dont count in how small the packages have become at that price.

“One of the negative features of the current economic recovery has been declining incomes of average Americans.”

And when the first person here posts on our internal web site that the 1.7% SS COLA is not enough, I’ll figuratively slap them upside the head with that little fact.

By “here” I meant in my community of retirees.

And where in Carolina is “here”?

I have never said it was not Bush’s fault. It was his fault and Greenspan’s fault and Clinton’s fault. When we decided to go to easy money and that began in the first term of Clinton’s administration under Greenspan (I know he was originally appointed under papa Bush) we set the country up for a series of bubbles and collapses. Clinton was luckier since his bubble did not completely collapse before he left, but Bush was very unlikely that it totally collapsed before he left office. However, we are setting up the mother of all bubbles under Obama, the bond market bubble and when that one collapses, these times will be thought of us the good old days.

Greenspan (I know he was originally appointed under papa Bush)

Get your facts straight, Dan. Greenspan was appointed by Reagan, after Reagan effectively fired Volcker (for not being a staunch enough deregulator).

No, illegals work cheaper. MUCH cheaper. As in, below min wage.

In fact, there were a ton of problem with lots of people getting paid, all up and down the pay scale.

If you are displaced by earthquake or house fire, please make sure to refuse their services. You can live in the Superdome…HAHAHAHAHA.

What services? As I’ve posted before, I DID lose my house in a fire and they were not only nowhere to be seen, they were nowhere to be contacted. (And my neighbors tried.)

Moreover, Red Cross completely ignored our entreaties during a year-long flood that isolated parts of our community from ingress or egress. Who finally DID airdrop food and medicines to those in need? Why, it was FEMA, (thanks to our Congressman) with ongoing support from our ad hoc pony express pack teams.

Red Cross has had ZERO presence here when we’ve needed it. In fact, I’ve never seen them ANYWHERE in any of the roughly dozen local disasters I’ve experienced. Do they even exist outside of their fundraising activities?

But why not higher than the 1821 flood which I have heard was higher than the Sandy wave?

In that storm the surge was 13 feet in one hour, NYC was lucky it hit at low tide. I cannot find what the total surge was. In the present storm the total surge was under 14 feet for the entire event but hours before the ocean had risen five to six feet.

have to side with ConEd on this one they did build a excellent seawall to protect the east side generating station…1.5 feet higher then any known flood level since 1821…

My bro in law was at that plant working on Monday night. Scary stuff, especially when we saw the explosion on the news. Nail biting until he texted home. Workers were stranded on the 3rd floor overnight.

He says that plant (14th street on east side) is so old that is pretty much held together with spit and bailing wire.

Their car is toast, too.

Glad to hear that andyDJ. How much did that project cost?

Why are there millions out of power elsewhere within 150 miles radius?

Why after hundreds of federal billions have been spent on “infrastructure”?

Why after exorbitant state and local taxes in New York and New Jersey?

It seems the amount collected far exceeds benefits provided.

Why is that old plant still on line?

Where were all the inspections?

New Yorker staters pay a great deal of taxes.

What did they get for their money?

Why is that old plant still on line?
Where were all the inspections?
New Yorker staters pay a great deal of taxes.
What did they get for their money?

Record profits and skyrocketing CEO salaries. It’s the American Way.

So taxes in NY state go to private companies? That’s amazing!

You’re up early today Herman. You must be getting paid more for those last minute propaganda posts.

And you should comment as Rev. Hussein Rezko Wright Alinsky, commie!

Reminds me of our jokes when they were first coming up with power over ethernet (delivering small amounts of power for things like small hubs and switches). We said we’d just deliver data packets that told the device how much power they were receiving. You want 100 amps at 440V, no problem…see? It’s right there specified in the data packet.

Imagine the psychological distress being experienced by New Yorkers who cannot use their social networks! I hadn’t even thought of that.

Seriously. It must be bad.

Fortunately, mental anguish can be relieved by picking up an axe and hacking at downed trees.

I wonder if the Red Cross hands out axes. Perhaps it should, now that it’s been labeled Evil.

On second thought, the Red Cross probably can’t get its hands on anything other than a paltry quantity of axes.

The unions probably bought them all up and refuse to hand them out to anyone non-union.

OH THE HUMANITY!

“So how is it bigoted to point out the obvious?”

metrosexual.

You are putting people down for their circumstances. It is as bad as calling a country dweller a hick.

Rural folks have skills appropriate for rural living. They also have resources appropriate for rural living. If rural living is the way we should all be living then there need to be a lot less of us on the planet.

I have both rural and city relatives. I see them as equally intelligent and capable and moral and kind, with different skillsets.

And I mistook you for MacBeth who seems to carry a lot more bitterness than you do. Sorry about that. I’ll chill now.

The morbidly obese red staters won’t be able to put much firewood on their mobility scooters.

Excellent post.

+1!

You are still confusing the impacts of GW which was real, and we are still at a high plateau and the alleged AGW. If man was the primary cause of GW it would have continued over the last 15 years, it did not, it stopped just like many people predicted based on the PDO cooling. When the AMO goes in its cooling phase, the Atlantic will cool and when both are going on at the same time and with the solar cycle going into a minimum after the highest sunspot activity in 8000 years, we will be cooling fast.

BTW, Bluestar do you really believe this is a credible source:

The survey, conducted by the Center for China Climate Change Communication (CCCCC), randomly selected and polled more than 4,000 mainland residents aged between 18 and 70 from July to September. The survey was conducted ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, which will be held from Nov. 26 to Dec. 7 in Doha, Qatar. About 93 percent of respondents agree that climate change has already taken its toll.

What they left out is the the remaining 7% were shot or sent to re-education camps for not adhering to the communist party’s position.

Of course it’s credible, just like FOX is America’s most trusted news network. I like the final paragraph
”
I’d like to gather a few folks from China’s propaganda ministry and put them in a room with Roger Ailes and the Koch brothers. The conversation would be fascinating. A lot of common ground there, with the only differences being that the Americans would be envious of China’s information management infrastructure, and the Chinese would be in awe of the Americans’ success selling The Big Lie.
“

I met an old timer up here that worked for Exxon in the seventies. Exxon was entirely aware of the impending climate change and his job was to map and acquire the drilling rights for the Arctic one the ice had melted.

From what I’ve been reading on climate change (since the eighties), it’s happening exactly as the scientific commhunity had predicted, only faster.

Your story is entirely consistent with the belief that many scientists knew that there was going to be a natural warming. The scam is to turn it into AGW so you can justify taxes and money transfers from the developed to the developing world.

To make if very simple think Gilligan’s Island. How do the professor save them from cannibals. When he knew an eclipse or volcano was about to happen he told the natives unless they were released the event would happen. The science was sound just not the information provided to the natives.

A not so funny example is how the Aztecs and Mayans controlled their populations based on the priests understanding of events like eclipses including human sacrifices. Science can be the basis for the worse of religions, AGW is a religion not a science and is being used to control people.

I am not familiar with your talk and paranoia of government control through using global warming as a scare tactic. I can only speak from personal and real world experiences about the impact of climate change in my lifetime. Little things like a hike a few weeks ago up to Mount Baker and being shown where the Coleman Glacier is now and be shown picture where it once was. Or seeing that robins and other birds no longer migrate. Hearing stories from friends returning from Nepal and the Andes and hearing about the receding glaciers and impending catastrophes due to water shortages. Or seeing hundred year floods occur every five years. Or seeing the many unseasonable warming trends creating false starts in plants only to go into abnormal deep freezes. Or entire ski seasons that don’t exist (back east) due to lack of snow that used to be once every decade in a lifetime but now are every few years. I could go on and on and on, but in my myopic tree-hugging world, climate change is real and has been greatly exacerbated by human activity.

And to say these trends occur naturally is downright ignorant. As I mentioned d a few days back, yes the cooling/warming does occur naturally over the course of hundreds of thousands of years. We’ve done it in a hundred and fifty.

If someone could inform me as to the government conspiracy of control through the climate change fear tactics, please let me know. I do plead ignorant on this topic. I guess I need to read infowars.com more.

We are not as warm as we were a thousand years ago so we have not experienced upprecendented global warming. You can call me ignorant but you have not explained why we have not warmed at all for the last 15 years if it it is our c02 emissions causing the warming. The emissions have only soared in the last 15 years. China burns more than 3 billion tons a year of coal which is three times what we burn and 15 years ago it was more like one billion. So why did the warming stop if it was caused by man? Sorry I have done the research and know a con when I see it. Just like Identified the housing bubble and then identified the government policies that would stop the nominal but not real fall in housing prices three years ago.

Finally, just how long does warming have to stop before you admit you are wrong? More and more of the proponents have admitted that their models are wrong and they did not take natural factors into account but you just keep hanging on.

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week.

The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html#ixzz2B5MvPw6Z

Again, the data I’ve seen (and felt by being outside), year after year is suggested as the hottest on record. 1988, 2003 and 2012 especially come to mind.

I think that’s why they changed the name from “global warming” to “global climate change,” since people were measuring on strictly one aggregate metric (ie, temperature) and not stepping away from their computers and seeing what’s really going on in the world. Again, if you feel that the extreme shifting weather (eg, global droughts, hurricanes) is just another day of average weather, then I cannot argue with you.

On another note, point taken on the return of the sockeye to the Columbia River. Although I’ve sailed the Bar to Portland a few times, I am a few hundred miles north and was reporting on the Puget Sound and Strait of Georgia, where salmon stocks are still in fluctuation.

Where do you get your numbers? 2012 is nowhere near a global record. As I said we are on a Mesa, to use the Southwestern term, we still have warm years but that is how the transition has naturally occur. 2012 is much colder on a global basis than 1998, this is not at all consistent with AGW but entirely consistent with how natural GW and then global cooling works. Plug in an iron, heat it up and then unplug it. Graph out the highest temperatures on a minute basis and you will find that many of the highest temperatures were when the iron was unplugged. It does not mean that unplugged iron is heating up.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2008/global-warming-speculation

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/global-warming

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/solar-output-research

The Met knew this years ago.

Shall we play again?

From your own story: However, as La Niña declines, it is very likely that renewed warming will occur, as was the case when the Earth emerged from the strong La Niña events of 1989 and 1999.

That was 2008 and we did not go back into renewed warming. Would you like to play again? Or would you like to bet that this year 2012 will be warmer than 1998? Here is the bet, if it is warmer I will not post any articles against global warming in 2013, If it is not you will not post any articles against my by pointing out that AGW is a scam. Want to bet?

For a start, here’s a NASA link:
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
All three major global surface temperature reconstructions show that Earth has warmed since 1880. Most of this warming has occurred since the 1970s, with the 20 warmest years having occurred since 1981 and with all 10 of the warmest years occurring in the past 12 years. 6 Even though the 2000s witnessed a solar output decline resulting in an unusually deep solar minimum in 2007-2009, surface temperatures continue to increase
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I am sure there are one or two other links out there. But this has been discussed ad nauseum. I sometimes feel like I am discussing religion with someone, where I diplomatically just smile and agree, as there’s no way to win otherwise.

Albuqurquedan:
“..Here is the bet, if it is warmer I will not post any articles against global warming in 2013, If it is not you will not post any articles against my by pointing out that AGW is a scam. Want to bet?”

Perhaps you should define which yearly average temperature you are using as the basis for your proposed bet. I have observed “continental US yearly average temperatures” being mixed up with “global yearly average temperatures”.

I want to use the NASA global figure for the entire globe including the bodies of water. In 1998, that number for the entire year averaged .59 F above the average of years from the 1950’s to around 1980. This is done by memory but I have posted the site and the chart numerous times.

For those that really want to know the truth and how PDO and AMO explain most of what is going on. I throw in the sunspots too but you can explain most of the warming with the PDO and AMO cycles. The AMO also explains the drought in the midwest when combined with an la Nina and the increased hurricane activity along the Atlantic seaboard.

http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/PDO_AMO.htm

Dan, I looked at that web site but when they started quoting climategate emails I suspect their evidence is cherry picked. Once again I urge you to go back a watch that video of Prof. Jennifer A. Francis.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=RtRvcXUIyZg

This was filmed at a major climate science conference in Feb. of this year and there was a extended Q&A session where network meteorologist dug into the major issues.

This is quite interesting, especially since I can see WWU from my house and have probably et Dr. Easterbrook. Although his agruments are comelling and he speaks with certainty, the next threee decades or so (from 2007 +/-3 years) will prove or disprove his theory. Just so we don’t include 2120, the fourth hottest temperatures on record (gobally). I look forward to reading more of this and his information seems to be credible (well except for a doctored graph or two).

I am not sure if you made a typo on the 2120, I know I make quite a few but if you have read my posts you will know that I have conceded that up to 1/7 of the global warming might be manmade and have stated it for six years. That could be up to .08 degrees F of the actual warming. However, that is very minor to the 1F per decade increase that James Hansen was suggesting during the 1980s. Also, since we are on a temperature mesa a strong el nino could lead to a minor record in any year until we began the strong trend down with natural factors dwarfing any influence by man.

Dan, When we go looking for quotes and data to support our positions I would lean toward the most recent research based in part on the clear fact that the amount and quality has been doubling at a accelerating rate, as it is with every other field of science. I don’t put much faith in reports and studies done over 10 years ago anymore just because so much changes so fast now. You might enjoy Dr. Judith Curry’s web site Climate etc. @ http://judithcurry.com

Deep thoughts here:

“Stepping back from the immediate moment, one could say that all this is implicit when naked apes with a big brain adapted to live short brutish lives of hunter-gatherers on the African Savannah stumble upon agriculture freeing some to develop writing and culture and eventually the scientific and industrial revolutions leading to their explosive growth, like a cancer, over the entire planet Earth. We invented the technology which extended our lives and changed everything about what we need to survive, but never adapted in a genetic Darwinian sense to the new global environment we created. Some might say this is necessarily a time bomb, that we have all the wrong instincts to live with our technology, and that climate change is the leading edge [of] a wave of destruction needed to restart the process. The fact that people aren’t willing to make the personal sacrifices to combat the climate change they created is interesting and true but it isn’t in my opinion the most important question. [T]he most important question is whether Homo sapiens can adopt a narrative leading to the sustainable existence of high tech civilization on Earth?”

Blue, hamster,

You’re trying to debate the science with a fourth-level poseur who can’t pass peer review. Why bother? He’s not listening.

Yes. The ultimate takeaway.

Taxes need to be raised another 20%, more regulations are needed, and a new federal agency should be created.

Oh - an update.

It seems that Bloomberg has suspended some regulations on the delivery of gasoline.

Seems those regulations are getting in the way of efficient deliverly of product to where it is needed.

Imagine that.

I wonder what other government impediments will be temporarily suspended to hasten the rebuild.

They might have capable hands, but without access to capital they will be idle hands.

Bad news MacBeth: there has been a recession every decade since at least the 1970s. (actually, approx. every 7 years)

End? Rebuild? In my dreams.

Second, Spookster! (Dang, didn’t see that one coming.)

Orlov is one of the wryest and most concise socio-political observers on the scene today, and his book “Reinventing Collapse” (The Soviet Example and American Prospects) should be on every HBB reader’s “must-read” list– if only for the laffs.

You know what he meant, wizenheimer: he was talking about infrastructure, not the businesses themselves.

I know no such thing.

Even if that can be confirmed, it doesn’t relieve Obama from letting financial cons from running free.

Remember:

Obama = Bush and Bush = Obama.

A vote for Obama is a vote for Bush.

I know no such thing.

Are you serious? It’s very easy to find the entire speech on the internet. You should read it, unless you’re afraid of the truth.

You were the one who resurrected the “you didn’t build it” canard, and tried to use it in the context of small businesses.

“Obama = Bush and Bush = Obama.

A vote for Obama is a vote for Bush.”

And what is a vote for Romney - Hope and Change?

Yeah, I’m serious.

Has it not occurred to you that money spent by Obama to bail out and protect financial cons in Washington and New York is money taken from small businesses via taxation?

No, it hasn’t.

How’s that Obama infrastructure in New York City helping businesses located south of 30th?

It isn’t.

“Obama = Bush and Bush = Obama.”

Bullcrap propaganda.

Bush created the recession. End of story.

I don’t know the answer to that either, Happy. I hgope to find out.

Perhaps Romney won’t be a carbon copy of Bush = Obama. We do know Obama will.

Has it not occurred to you that money spent by Obama to bail out and protect financial cons in Washington and New York is money taken from small businesses via taxation?

Dude, you keep moving the goal posts.

If you want to talk about the banksters ripping off the taxpayers, fine. But you brought up the “you didn’t build it” canard.

And in case you missed my point, I said that small business owners are getting shafted (they aren’t in the club). Furthermore, I think its funny that they identify with the 1%, with whom they have nothing in common.

Yeah, I’m serious.

Then perhaps you should research the facts and educate yourself.

MacBeth = tj

perhaps you should research the facts and educate yourself

“Perhaps Romney won’t be a carbon copy of Bush = Obama. We do know Obama will.”

FWIW, Romney’s advisors are mostly ex-Bush appointees.

And I don’t agree that Bush = Obama. There are some Bush policies that Obama continued. But Bush would not have appointed Sotomayor. Bush did not sign the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act. Bush did not even attempt health care reform. That is just 3 examples.

Given that the union was eviscerated (new hires are paid much less), that many domestic factories were closed while factories in Mexico were expanded, I would say that it had more to do with the industry.

FWIW, even Toyota management went on record saying that if GM collapsed that it would be disastrous for the industry (mostly because many common suppliers would fold).

FWIW, even Toyota management went on record saying that if GM collapsed that it would be disastrous for the industry (mostly because many common suppliers would fold)

They said the same thing about AIG. Almost every big bank had exposure to AIG and had it failed, the cascade of defaults would have been enormous. The question that needs to be asked is “Would we have been better off in the long run had Wall St. and AIG not been bailed out and allowed to fail?” I believe the answer to this question is one and the same to the question of bailing out the auto industry.

We have a legal structure to allow for restructuring debts and insolvency called bankruptcy. Why did the PTB decide that those rules did not apply for certain sectors of the economy, but for the rest of the economy (and the citizens at large) they do?

That is the key question. Perhaps because the PTB would have lost all their equity in a BK? We know that in the car case the Unions would have had to make more concessions which would have made the car companies more competitve going forward but instead we violated the rule of law to reward our home boys.

She isn’t getting all the free stuff you think she gets

If she makes as little as you state, would she not qualify for the government programs I mentioned?

Maybe Medicade, as her income is low enough depending on the state she lives in.
Housing, not as a single adult. SNAP, maybe a very small amount, under $100. a month.
Most “free stuff” is for adults who have kids at home.