Bits Bucket for November 7, 2012
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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The analysis that makes the most sense to me is that this election was the next step of a long demographic shift that was also evident in the president’s first election.
I will note that the networks called the election long before the newspapers were willing to do so. I wonder if the newspapers were being more careful, or if they just had few people to go over which precincts hadn’t reported yet which was required to call it early.
Interesting evening. Now on to the fiscal cliff. Warning to those with upper middle class incomes and mortgages (or lots of other deductions). The unfixed AMT could be brutal and my understanding is that it would apply to *this* year’s income which seems odd, but could be true. I haven’t checked it personally.
I think the Powers That Be got a little jolt tonight, and the oligarchy is squirming as a younger, more inclusionary generation takes the ascendant role in the evolution of our United States of America. In any case, the Rovians and their corporate bandits got majorly bitch-slapped, and it was a pleasure to watch. Kudos to Gov. Romney for playing out the endgame with grace and even a certain degree of class.
It’s going to be a fascinating next four years.
“It’s going to be a fascinating next four years.”
Congratulations to those of you who supported president Obama. I hope the next four years are fascinating because the last four years were really tough for myself and a lot of people I know and work with.
“I hope the next four years are fascinating because the last four years were really tough for myself and a lot of people I know and work with.”
I felt that way myself. But I’m curious exactly what aspect of that toughness did you feel was due to Obama policies which would not have continued under Romney?
“But I’m curious exactly what aspect of that toughness did you feel was due to Obama policies which would not have continued under Romney?”
I have made a decent living working for people who have money for 30 years. For whatever reason those people have for the most part shut down their spending over the last 3 1/2 years and thus shut down the decent living that myself, my guys and the people we work with and our ability to make a decent living.
Trillions that were printed borrowed and spent on windmills, solar pannels, cash for clunkers, cash for caulkers, endless foreclosure prevention programs (to cushion the 7 trillion in lost equity for the banks or whoever owned that sh#t) the expansion of social security disability, SNAP etc. have born no fruit for people like myself who fight like hell to stay off of the government doll.
I hoped (perhaps mistakenly) that a change in policies if not mindset might turn that trend around. It did not happen.
So today I will get out like I always have (although late) do the best I can for my family, the guys that work for me, the people we are working for and hope for the best.
But once again, congratulations to those of you who supported president Obama.
Government Dole, although I am sure somewhere in the trillion dollar stimulus program there was a government doll that didn`t do me any good either.
“For whatever reason those people have for the most part shut down their spending over the last 3 1/2 years “
I am truly sorry that the last few years have been tough for you. I had some tough years after 9/11, so I understand that in my gut. I don’t blame Bush for my tough times. 9/11 may or may not have been avoidable, but there were some other circumstances that influenced my personal situation - the dot bomb among them.
“government doll ”
LOL. I didn’t catch that
End italics
My company is hiring Engineers in Sinapore
Cheaper, Big tax breaks, Asia is where the money is, etc.
writing is on the wall in BIG LETTERS
in other news Proposition 30 has passed so at least some Middle class workers in CA are safe.
Prop 30 passed so the people who can’t be bothered to read could bail out CALPERS and CALSTER pension shortfalls under the guise of “saving our schools”.
could bail out CALPERS and CALSTER pension shortfalls”
yep
Unknown, you benefited from the bubble economy (2000-2006 must have been great). That economy was not sustainable. It may come back but, I hope it doesn’t. IMO, those people you made a living off of should never have money again.
“Unknown, you benefited from the bubble economy (2000-2006 must have been great).”
Never was into price gouging. Prices went up big on material and some on labor but my 10% margin stayed. We never have done huge volume so there was no pot of gold for us. That`s the downside, the fact we didn`t get piggy or rich we were able to stay in business the last few years working for basically the same people we have for 20 years while many others went under.
As far as…..
“those people you made a living off of should never have money again.”
How does that work? If there are not people willing or able to hire people, who do we work for? Who do you you make a living off of and if you do make a living off of someone, where do they get the money to pay you?
Face it Jethro, you’re calling for the return of the RE bubble.
Sorry Unknown, I jumped to the conclusion (since it’s FL) that your wealthy clients made their money in the big real estate farce of 2000-2006. I’m a slow and steady type of guy, not this boom/bust crap.
“Face it Jethro, you’re calling for the return of the RE bubble.”
I didn`t know the RE bubble went from 1984-2007.
In Florida? Then you haven’t been paying attention.
Bush: you cant cut taxes and go to war…. it has long term consequences.
At some point we have to feel the pain.
I’m specifically curious what the likes of Goldman Sachs, et al, are thinking right now.
Also, would this finally be an appropriate time to use the word “unexpected”?
It was only really unexpected for the people who did not believe the state by state analysis based on the average of the professionally done polls. The real surprise was that there wasn’t much of a surprise meaning that the polls weren’t mostly wrong in only one direction. A lot of the data driven people were concerned that there might have been something missing in the sampling techniques. Turns out there wasn’t, at least not when you averaged them instead of taking only one or two.
By the way, Wonkblog collected a lot of the various “expert” predictions in a post and gave a very brief description of their reasoning.
Pundit accountability: The official 2012 election prediction thread
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/11/05/pundit-accountability-the-official-2012-election-prediction-thread/
There are more Romney wins later in the post, but here are the first ten:
There are a lot of predictions floating around out there about who will win the presidential election on Tuesday. So why not round them all up in one place?
Place your bets, folks.
Here are the electoral vote predictions from various modelers, political scientists and pundits from around the Internet. All predictions are as of Monday evening. And yes, this will be a fun thread to revisit the day after the election:
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Obama 332, Romney 203. This appears to be the most likely scenario in Silver’s model, which now gives Obama a 91 percent chance of winning and shows Florida as basically a tossup. “In order for Mr. Romney to win the Electoral College, a large number of polls, across these states and others, would have to be in error, perhaps because they overestimated Democratic turnout.,” Silver writes.
Intrade: Obama 303, Romney 235. The betting markets also give Obama a 70 percent chance of winning as of Tuesday morning. The main difference from Silver’s model is that Intrade gives Romney a fairly strong chance (65 percent) of winning Florida.
Washington Post’s Outlook contest: There are a slew of different predictions here. Chris Cillizza of the Fix predicts a narrow 277-261 Obama win. Andrew Beyer, our horse-racing columnist, predicts a 284-254 Romney win. And Jason Samenow of the excellent Capital Weather Gang predicts a 281-257 Obama victory.
Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 303, Romney 235. “In terms of EV or the Meta-margin, [Obama has] made up just about half the ground he ceded to Romney after Debate #1.”
Drew Linzer, Emory University: Obama 326, Romney 212. “The accuracy of my election forecasts depend on the accuracy of the presidential polls,” Linzer writes. ”As such, a major concern heading into Election Day is the possibility that polling firms, out of fear of being wrong, are looking at the results of other published surveys and weighting or adjusting their own results to match.”
Michael Barone, The Examiner: Romney 315, Obama 223. “Both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don’t identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney.”
Ezra Klein, The Washington Post: Obama 290, Romney 248. “I have a simple rule when predicting presidential elections: The polls, taken together, are typically pretty accurate. Systemic problems, while possible, aren’t likely.”
Larry Sabato, UVA Center for Politics: Obama 290, Romney 248. “Who could have imagined that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republican’s campaign, blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaign’s last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris Christie (R)?”
Josh Putnam, Davidson College: Obama 332, Romney 206. ”Everything above is based on a graduated weighted average of polls in each state conducted in 2012,” Putnam wrote in explaining his methodology. “The weighting is based on how old a poll is. The older the poll is the more it is discounted. The most recent poll is given full weight.”
Jay Cost, Weekly Standard: Romney victory. “For two reasons,” Cost writes. “(1) Romney leads among voters on trust to get the economy going again. (2) Romney leads among independents.”
Sure they may be inclusionary but smart? pinterest sharing photos ….huh?
Do you know any 22 year old that has any concept of the housing bubble or the student loan bubble?
I think the PTB loved what happened a new generation of lemmings clueless non thinkers…..what more could they ask for?
OWS would have been a perfect venue to air grievances and find solutions, people all over looked and all they found were really dumb kids.
I was ashamed of them…where were the alternative bands to rally the troops? uh you are supposed to be alternative….guess that was a lie too. so you had 90 year old pete seegar arlo guthrie but nobody young wanted to be associated with the movement.
Steve jobs said before he died Smartphone users dont search they use apps….and SEARCH is what smart people use to find detailed information….like us old school people who had to get out of the house and go to the library to find out anything.
Do you know any 22 year old that has any concept of the housing bubble or the student loan bubble?
Uh, all of them? They know how much they borrowed for college and they know how much “value” was lost in the house they grew up in.
Use you brain.
Ox they really dont have a clue…..and i’m not bitter just stating what i see and read in my emails daily….
Independent thinkers…..where please show me where
My kids are painfully aware of the housing market and their student loan debt.
Because they have a great teacher…you….most don’t
I do not expect any 30 or less y.o. to have any good grasp on macro concepts. That’s the kind of thing that only comes with age and experience for most people and has always has.
…and now we’ve heard from the bitter old man contingent.
My 25 year old son said, ‘Dad these kids don’t understand anything about the economy, they just keep borrowing money and think that they will get rid of the debt by filing for hardship relief down the road”. I asked him who told them that and he said that the professors researched it and told them so.How do you file for hardship when they don’t try to collect and let the meter until you have a good paying job down the road that they can dun.
Tell him if he has his legs amputated that may not be a severe enough hardship to cancel his loans… you still can type and use a computer and your brain and pay them off
That should get the message across
Oh ron just thought of something….
If he defaults on the loan write him out of your will. Since when you die the house will be part of your estate, and they will want his share to pay off the loan also affecting the rest of your family.
Instead put $2500 a year into his IRA or what the max is…and that will be protected from seizure.
Smart 22 yrs old’s know. Just like other smart people know.
too bad America is less than half smart.
I have barely commented on here, but I’m 21 and I know about both the Student Loan Bubble and the Housing Bubble. I have a vague understanding of macro/micro economics, but I hope to learn more. As for others my age, all of the ones I know between the ages of 18-30 seem unaware, and more concerning, do not even care. I also know about the fiscal cliff, which also seems to escape young people’s minds.
“It’s going to be a fascinating next four years.”
If they are as fascinating as the last four, we’re all going to have a rough time of things. The rich will continue to get richer and the dependent class will grow exponentially.
Enjoy your “free” health care for the rich…Gasp! Yeah, free health care for the rich. Example: I have in laws who have a net worth in the low 8 figures, they are ecstatic about progressive government. Why, you ask? Because they are cheap as hell, they do not give one dime to charity, they think it’s the government’s job, meaning I should pay. All of their income is capital gains and muni bonds, they dodge taxes just like all of your super villains.
Your utopian dream system is nothing more than limousine liberals at the top (yourself included) and the rest of us working to keep the ship upright until we all croak. The poor will just keep trading votes for goodies until the well runs dry.
Well, I better turn in, need to rest and get back to work. Can’t have the government lawyers and idle rich running out tax revenue.
One last thought, how hard is it to win elections simply by promising clueless automatons free homes, education, heath care, smart phones, cars and big screen televisions? Hell, we can all have a thriving career in politics using that model.
So are you an American or just a soulless capitalist pig?
Eff you loser.
Eloquent as always, nicky. Stay classy, dude.
Sorry, I should have left out the word loser, that was a cheap shot.
You misspelled ‘looser.’
“Hell, we can all have a thriving career in politics using that model.”
The apple is there to be picked. Go for it!
It is also helpful if you have the personality of a Carnival Barker. It was my hope that Obama would get fired and that was his next stop, Barnum and Bailey’s.
The Circus has lost what could have been a valued mouthpiece for its death-defying acts.
“The apple is there to be picked. Go for it!”
I have too much love for our country to assist in it’s ultimate demise, glad to see you can be so callous. Oh, and I guess you should also throw some thanks my way, I think us 100k private sector guys will be paying for your healthcare as well, while my public sector counterparts laugh and enjoy tax payer funded trips to Vegas.
“Enjoy your “free” health care for the rich…Gasp! ”
I don’t have a clue about free health care but the only change in my life this last 4 years was this year as the doc’s adjust for Obamacare. My group of doc’s sold off their practice to a group of clinic doc’s all with foreign sounding names. I checked Yelp and those patients that transferred to this group have multi-negative posts about the level of care.
The good doc’s are moving over to Monterey or somewhere else from Salinas and taking patients with them but the poor and elderly can’t make the change. For me it will now be a 20 mile drive to Monterey but it’s all most all freeway type driving.
My group of doc’s sold off their practice to a group of clinic doc’s all with foreign sounding names. I checked Yelp and those patients that transferred to this group have multi-negative posts about the level of care.”
ah the future but you can drive to better care for now
I don’t have a clue about free health care but the only change in my life this last 4 years was this year as the doc’s adjust for Obamacare.
I don’t get this. Is the private health insurance in Monterrey any better than in Salinas and pay more? Or is it because more people in Salinas are on medicaid, which is is different from Obamacare?
Obviously, Monterrey has a superior class of patients.
Ron, I’m sorry to hear that. I expect to see another year of this, as health insurance companies make hay while the sun shines and before the state exchanges kick in.
The CC companies did the same when their law was delayed by 6 months, long enough to jack up rates on existing balances. I hope Obamacare evens things out…
How come France can offer better, cheaper health care?
Are they not in it for the money?
And worse OX…now tens of millions of CC are variable rate….so when Bernanke has to tighten rates 3-5% millions wont be able to afford the minimum anymore
I never said that one’s fascination cannot also be horrified.
Remind us again who recently got trillions of dollars for failure.
The super rich progressives?
I would really love to see Elizabeth Warren behave like a law professor in the Senate. Skip the long-winded intros that use up 2/3s of their time and just ask the people testifying question after question after question. And no letting them wiggle out of a meaningful answer - if they duck the real question, come right back and ask again. It could be a beautiful thing.
Admittedly, I really wanted that one. Those Senators could have confirmed her at the Consumer Financial Protection Agency and sent her away with only an occasional briefing. Now she’s a Senator herself, and they have to look at her every day. Talk about being hoisted on your own petard.
I haven’t heard any rumors, but this had to be Obama’s (or Axelrod’s or Pluffe’s) brilliant idea. Massachusetts liberal denied a government position fills a vulnerable government position in Massachusetts. Now that’s elegant efficiency.
EW yes she did her best to fight for the CFPA then got dissed.
she would have gotten my vote too.
Her victory, along with Tammy Baldwin’s in Wisconsin, were the most satisfying things about last night’s results for me.
Her victory, along with Tammy Baldwin’s in Wisconsin, were the most satisfying things about last night’s results for me.
Here here!
+1
I felt really good about Mourdoch and Akin, also.
Although I do wonder if the Republicans will learn that their constituents do not want the reproductive policies they are advocating or if they will decide that they should just keep quiet about them.
Missouri and Indiana both went for Romney, so they bought his exceptions for rape and incest.
Her victory, along with Tammy Baldwin’s in Wisconsin, were the most satisfying things about last night’s results for me.
Same here. Along with an openly lesbian member of the Senate, I’d like to see more openly atheist members of Congress. Pete Stark (D-CA) must feel awfully lonely.
“Same here. Along with an openly lesbian member of the Senate, I’d like to see more openly atheist members of Congress. Pete Stark (D-CA) must feel awfully lonely.”
The gap between church and state widened yesterday, which is a good thing IMHO.
+1 rms
I would really love to see Elizabeth Warren behave like a law professor in the Senate.
At Harvard Law, she was known as Socrates with a Machine Gun.
I give up, nobody wins a year of torture 1 billion spent and we know less then before.. And Gary Johnson didn’t even register on the meter.
I have to seriously rethink my plan of being responsible in the future. How to hide any income and qualify for free stuff…
I guess the PTB won……
Brian Williams agrees with you. Throughout the night he lamented about the $6 billion in advertising wasted on airtime and campaigning. Which diseases could we have cured with $6 billion of research, he asked, repeately. Well played, Brian.
Lloyd Blankfein won with 99% of the vote. It was a close one.
“…we know less then before…”
than?
Ummmmmok if ben used disqus we all could edit our stupid misteakzz
“In any case, the Rovians and their corporate bandits got majorly bitch-slapped, and it was a pleasure to watch.”
Best part of the outcome…
“In any case, the Rovians and their corporate bandits got majorly bitch-slapped, and it was a pleasure to watch.”
That’s what you think happened? LOLOLOLOL! Romney was NEVER supposed to win, in fact I was shocked, I tell you, SHOCKED that he got as much of the popular vote as he did, which just shows that sheer desperation felt by many. The “Rovians” did a masterful job of making it look like a good show, I’ll give them that. But they’ve got a plan and a Romney win would have screwed it up.
JEB 2016!!!!!!!!!!
That is absurd. They do not want people to get used to being able to buy individual health insurance as part of a group with a group’s negotiating power on price. And as inadequate as Dodd Frank is, they don’t want that either. Plus they don’t want another four years of the EPA trying to do its job. Plenty of other examples if you just think for a bit.
Another repulican zealot driven off the deep end by reality. They’re like worms on the sidewalk after a heavy rain this morning.
JEB 2016!
no thanks…will vote libertarian again…or hell…maybe even for HC.
Polly is right. Big government is good. Bigger government is better. A government that runs everything is best of all.
While neither major party is interested in reversing the trend towards totalitarianism, we’ll now get there a bit faster. In their lifetimes, I predict my grandkids will be presented with a “ballot” that has only one party’s candidates on it, just like in the old Soviet Union.
IMO, there are at least a few posters on this blog who wish that were the case now.
“Another repulican zealot driven off the deep end by reality. They’re like worms on the sidewalk after a heavy rain this morning.”
LOL, are you that humorless you don’t recognize sarcasm when you see it?
Folks, I don’t care what party you belong to, just lighten up already.
Craig Unger in Vanity Fair magazine did an excellent article on Rove last month, very well researched. Seriously, Romney was never, EVER meant to win.
The Rovians did just fine. They made a ton of money and rendered Mitt Romney irrelevant (Karl to Ed: Whew, good job, buddy. Mission accomplished!)
JEB 2016!
BigSmall government is good.BiggerSmaller government is better. A government thatrunsstays out of everything is best of all.See how that works?
It’s official. Obama cancelled Christmas this year.
“That is absurd. They do not want people to get used to being able to buy individual health insurance as part of a group with a group’s negotiating power on price. And as inadequate as Dodd Frank is, they don’t want that either. Plus they don’t want another four years of the EPA trying to do its job. Plenty of other examples if you just think for a bit.”
Lady, you and others like you are killing our economic engine. Your Orwellian bureaucracy run by lawyers with no private sector experiences is doing nothing but harm. You are drowning hard working individuals and small business in mountains of regulations and fees.
I will ask one more time…If you eventually put the private sector out of business through regulation or fiat, who will fund the behemoth system you have created? You know what you end up with? Cuba, they are still stuck back in the decade of their glorious revolution…it’s like a time capsule the size of a country.
There is a large chasm between keeping our air, water and markets clean and the heavy handed punishment style of government you enjoy creating.
“Polly is right. Big government is good. Bigger government is better. A government that runs everything is best of all.”
Polly did not say that. You are projecting your opinion on her.
“While neither major party is interested in reversing the trend towards totalitarianism, we’ll now get there a bit faster.”
Government getting involved in individual reproductive decisions is pretty totalitarian. Nationally, we have fended that off for another few years.
In their lifetimes, I predict my grandkids will be presented with a “ballot” that has only one party’s candidates on it, just like in the old Soviet Union.”
In some places, we are almost there already. There is a congressional district in west Texas that had a Republican running against an Independent, but no Democrat.
http://www.bing.com/elections/state?state=TX&q=elections%2B2012%2Bhouse%2BTX&office=house&form=bngeex#TX_19
Republicans may become increasingly irrelevant in the presidential race unless they adapt to changing demographics. But in the House, I don’t see it.
The most interesting thing to me in the state House maps is the stark contrast between urban and rural districts. Even dark red states, like Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, have a blue district in urban areas. You can see it also in trending red states, like Missouri and Indiana and in blue states, like New York and California.
“Lady, you and others like you are killing our economic engine.”
Record corporate profits over the last 3 years and the DOW back to 13,000 and holding, employment back up and climbing slowly but steadily and you say the economy is ruined?
Can you even hear yourself?
Um, oxide, I SAID Polly was right.
The majority of Judge races in my Texas county ran unopposed by Democrat or Libertarian candidates.
“you say the economy is ruined?
Can you even hear yourself?”
I hear just fine. The micro economy for those of us funding the free sh.t army has gotten much worse. Have you seen the price of fuel and food? Have you seen the increasing cost of health care? Have you seen the rising government sales taxes, fees and service charges.
This president is for the dependent rich and the dependent poor. The middle class is public enemy number one unless you work for a union or government. Prove me wrong.
a Bush will never even win a pie eating contest.
Blame your own party Nick. The best the grand ole party could come up with was the corporate downsizer that outsourced jobs, paid 13% in taxes( probably a lot less because the asshole wouldn”t even show his returns)and flip-flopped so much he lost all credibility. This was just after corporate greed brought our economy to it’s knees. Mortimer Snerd could have won this election if he was a regular guy and told the fundies to sit down and shut up. Christ, people were dying to vote for a change. What does the GOP do?they scare almost every woman in the country with their bible thumpin, caveman agendas.
Hey NickArpeggio, the votes are in and the outcome is decided.
Got Sour Grapes?
Whoa…slow down Byoung, nothing I post says I am a Republican. I am an independent centrist and an anti-communist. I strongly appose the Fundamental Transformation of America the progressives are trying to implement. Perhaps I am in the minority, but I like our country and our system.
@CIBsT - Keep sucking that government teat, let me know if it tastes like the blood sweat and tears of the working man.
“This president is for the dependent rich and the dependent poor.”
I think this is true. It is true.
America will NOT be taken back.
Your future will NOT be restored.
American Crosshairs is responsible for the content of this message.
America will NOT be taken back.
Your future will NOT be restored.
Dang! You mean the won’t be reopening Sambo’s restaurants?
Ouch. There’s still a “Lil Sambo’s” out on the Oregon coast. It’s not technically part of the old Sambo’s chain. But even worse (if you excuse the chain for ditching the theme finally), the name is there, as is some of the “art.” Mostly the tiger, IIRC. Their menu issues a disclaimer of sorts of who they are not but it’s like, seriously folks, why wouldn’t you take the steps to remove all doubt?
Karl pocketed millions for running super PACs funded by billionaires. I can’t feel too much pleasure at his lack of results. Granted, it would be far worse if his efforts had actually paid off. But next time, they might.
Geez, thank God somebody gets it.
Rover made out like a bandit.
“it would be far worse if his efforts had actually paid off. But next time, they might.”
JEB 2016!
“…made off like a bandit…it would be far worse if his efforts had actually paid off. But next time, they might.”
The beauty of crony capitalism is that it is not so much the outcome that matters, but rather the amount of money you rake in during the pursuit.
“I think the Powers That Be got a little jolt tonight”
if i am one of the PTB i slept like a baby last night. i think ben posted a few days back a few quotes from romney, ryan, and obama regarding the federal reserve’s actions and just based on what each said…obama was the one praising bernanke.
“It’s going to be a fascinating next four years.”
I love it. Like the Chinese saying ‘be careful what you wish for you may get it’. Definitely more hope and change and there is nothing like change to get people upset and having to think about their existence.
The only thing that I was interested in were the CA props. The two big telling winners were tax the rich both individuals and corps which I think is what the Presidential election came down to. Let’s tax those damn rich bastards and let’s see how that works out for you takers out there. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, may everyone equal today and in five years the rich will be rich and the poor will be poor because they don’t understand the value of money. Taking money from one side and giving it to the other does not solve the problem.
Predictions:
1) It is going to be another tough four years for the economy.
2) The 2016 election Republican candidate will blame the tough conditions on Obama.
2) The 2016 election Republican candidate will blame the tough conditions on Obama.
And my prediction is that you will make fun of them and call them names and say their arguments are stupid and a great many other derogatory things never seeing the irony in that you are just like them. Heck you might even be worse: It wouldn’t surprise me if in 2016 you’re still blaming Bush.
I hereby declare a moratorium on talking about the 2016 election for at least 2 years.
I have election fatigue, although I did sleep better last night than I have in the past week.
I agree there is no reason to discuss it here, but yesterday I saw someone trying to spin an offhand comment by Biden into a declaration that he would be running in 2016. Way too soon.
“the poor will be poor because they don’t understand the value of money”
Or perhaps because money is not their primary objective.
Plenty of sour grapes to go around today for all the bitter, elected-out Republican posters on the HBB…
‘the bitter, elected-out Republican posters on the HBB’
Yeah, they’re not welcome here. This is a Democrat political blog now. Congrats, after years of trying you guys have finally taken over this space and it is no longer remotely about housing. I’m gonna take a break from posting anything.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SC_wjQtfhZQ
“Yeah, they’re not welcome here.”
Sorry I have little tolerance for extremists. If they hadn’t forced Romney to the extreme right, he would have won the election.
I thought about it. Libs don’t really want to tax the rich for the actual money.
The libs know that the short-sighted offshoring and benefit evisceration will continue so long as the company needs to hit the numbers to please the rich. That’s the capitalist philosophy, and it will continue until the last employee is laid off and the last broke customer doesn’t buy the product. Then the last CEO will sell the last bits of the company for a last bit of profit.
Libs know that unless there is a way to cap profit margin, they can’t stop this process. But at least they can take a few token taxes and deny the very rich a second yacht or a stable of horses.
To whom would this mythical last CEO sell the company too?
Globalization was IMO part of the liberal agenda. Now they just want the horses to themselves?
The CEO would chop the company for parts and sell to eBay and Big Lots if they have to. For a mythical example, see the movie Wall Street. For a real example, see Bain Capital and its darling former CEO who I understand read a nice speech from a teleprompter last night after I went to bed.
And here is your list of “liberals” who want to foster globalization: Jack Welch, Carly Fiorina, GHW Bush (NAFTA), Monsanto, Dell, the US Chamber of Commerce, and the filibusterers of S.3816.
“Globalization was IMO part of the liberal agenda.”
Say WHAT? Just how many times do I have to post this?
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68R40I20100928
Another attempt at revising history, in that William Jefferson Clinton was left out of the list. He was pres when NAFTA was signed into law. From the Wikipedia article:
“With much consideration and emotional discussion, the House of Representatives approved NAFTA on November 17, 1993, 234-200. The agreement’s supporters included 132 Republicans and 102 Democrats. NAFTA passed the Senate 61-38. Senate supporters were 34 Republicans and 27 Democrats. Clinton signed it into law on December 8, 1993; it went into effect on January 1, 1994.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nafta
Following diplomatic negotiations dating back to 1986 among the three nations, the leaders met in San Antonio, Texas, on December 17, 1992, to sign NAFTA. U.S. President George H. W. Bush, Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and Mexican President Carlos Salinas, each responsible for spearheading and promoting the agreement, ceremonially signed it. The agreement then needed to be ratified by each nation’s legislative or parliamentary branch.
Before the negotiations were finalized, Bill Clinton came into office in the U.S. and Kim Campbell in Canada, and before the agreement became law, Jean Chrétien had taken office in Canada
I had written a longer post, but decided to post the short version. The same Wiki article says that GHW Bush was the initiator and architect of NAFTA. The Dems were weenies to along with it, but they weren’t the impetus behind it.
Notice that they could not get it passed as treaty, so they went the law route.
“GHW Bush was the initiator and architect of NAFTA”
Bush was not the initiator of NAFTA. If WIKI is as deep as you can go, at least try to read carefully.
(Make) everyone equal today and in five years the rich will be rich and the poor will be poor because they don’t understand the value of money.
No. Because most poor and middle-class understand the value of money more than the rich who were born into it. And the rich who were born into it are the majority of the rich nowadays. USA lacks upward mobility now because of gross wealth/income inequality.
I think it’s the Country that got “bitchslapped”.
The election was the Republican’s election to lose.
Under every typical indicator, about unemployment, the economy, deficit spending, size of government,etc., ROMNEY won hands down.
The Obama Campaign did a great job of vilifying Romney as a hateful, rich, unconcerned, greedy, overload of the working masses. And it worked.
I watched all the various polls and the Republicans were optimistic because when you looked at Leadership, Economic Policy, and Key elements of being the Chief Executive, Romney won by 60 yo 70%. But Romney Lost, big time, when the question was, “who do you think understands your problems more”> Romney got 18%, Obama about 80%.
The Republicans lost early by not responding to the BAIN ads, and allowing Romney to be vilified as the big ogre who was going to take your cookies away. It worked.
Many of the people I know with advanced degrees parroted the same message: Romney only cares about the “rich”.
So, the election became not a matter of policy, but a matter of perception, as always, and Obama got the needed votes.
The Country remains DIVIDED. It could have gone the other way without the breakdown of the electoral groups into demographic “single issue” voters. Young White women overwhelmingly voted for Obama for FRee birth control and the unfounded fear that Romney could overturn Roe v. Wade. That single campaign tactic was enough to swing the election to Obama. It was a good tactic.
Now, we have the hurricane to clean up, bills to pay, “free healthcare” for the poor, while the rest of you PAY for it, starting next year, Gross overspending estimated at another 4 TRILLION dollars over the next 4 years. Lots of real issues.
The STOCK MARKET is voting it’s approval of OBAMA.
It was my prediction that the Market would decline 500 point in the first couple of days if Obama was re-elected. I was wrong. It looks like it’s headed down 500 today.
Maybe Polly could explain how can the supremes could make abortion illegal? All they could do is send it back to individual states and let them make their own choice.
Romney could overturn Roe v. Wade. That single campaign tactic was enough to swing the election to Obama. It was a good tactic.
True, but once Roe V Wade is overturned then the congress could legislate a national ban.
If medical procedures are outlawed in one state (or county), it sets a creeping precedent. Look to Prohibition for your template. Or conversely, marijuana use.
But on a more basic level, a poor teen or housewife in rural Nevada, say, is unlikely to have the resources to borrow a car, drive to another state, pay for lodging and food while she sorts through the paperwork and procedure, then get back home in time for class and/or her job at the diner. So prohibition is achieved de facto if not explicitly and we end up with bathtub self-inductions and medical emergencies. Which are both hugely expensive and totally unnecessary.
As long as women have unwanted pregnancies, women will choose to end them. Which is why abortion is one of those non-issues I was talking about.
Murder is only a federal crime in very, very limited circumstances. Most current anti-abortion statutes do not say that abortion itself is a crime, but bring it into homicide by granting the zygote the full protection of the law beyond even what an adult human is allowed to do. So, an abortion that happened on federal land could be banned, I suppose, but that is pushing it. This stuff is mostly left to the states.
If one state passed a law banning all abortions and SCotUS said it was constitutional, then you would have a rush of other states that would do the same thing, but it would not be all of them.
Prior to Roe many states had legal access to abortions and it was thought to be a state by state decision to make. Each state’s citizens weighed the issue and made a determination. I cannot tell how many times I heard people say that Roe v. Wade legalized abortion. Ralph Nader tried to explain this in 2000 bit without any success.
The perception that we are in a real recovery is widespread.
Darn those fact and numbers!
We have been in a recovery since June 2009, the trouble is it is not strong enough to generate a significant number of jobs and shows signs of reaching its cyclical end prior to our recovering even the quantity never mind the quality of the 2008 jobs.
the trouble is it is not strong enough to generate a significant number of jobs
It won’t be again. The wealth is in too few hands.
How do you ever expect to bring back the quality and quantity of jobs from 2003-08? They were based on a housing bubble that should not re-inflate. That is what Unknown is lamenting; lost construction jobs for fake millionaires in RE and related industries. They over built, over lent and pulled from future earnings and sales.
From CNBC Jim Rogers, said Tuesday night but published today:
The co-founder of the Quantum Fund said he expected Obama’s policies to drive up commodities and drive down the U.S. dollar [DXC1 80.865 0.15 (+0.19%) ].
As the Federal Reserve moves to stimulate a stalled economy through debt purchases, Rogers says markets should expect the status quo to remain the same.
“If Obama wins, it’s going to be more inflation, more money printing, more debt, more spending.” Rogers told CNBC, saying he expected to sell U.S. government debt and buy precious metals, such as gold [XAU= 1717.59 1.28 (+0.07%) ]. “It’s not going to be good for you me or anybody else.”
“It looks to me like the money printing is going to run amok now, and spending is going to run amok now,” Rogers stated. “I have to invest based on what’s happening and not what I would like.”
Rogers said that he didn’t vote for either Romney or Obama, saying that “they’re both evil as far as I’m concerned.”
Under every typical indicator, about unemployment, the economy, deficit spending, size of government,etc., ROMNEY won hands down.
This should be a heads up for the Repubs.
You can’t be a whack-job party and win national elections. Those days have gone with the wind. It’s over.
The Bain campaign stuck like glue and I am convinced cost Romney several million votes from middle class and working class taxpayers.
Because competent as Romney may be, everything about his career smells “finance guy….Wall Street deal broker”.
Take a Mitt Romney and subtract the personal integrity, and you’ve got the exact type that brought us all the bubbles, Too Big To Fail and the bailouts.
You can be rich and still win Main Street’s approval if you are a hands on businessman who delivers products and services. Not a contract wrangler who makes his millions by transaction fees on paper moving around.
“This happened because of you. Thank you” Obama tweeted to supporters in celebration.”
The weak economy or the re-election?
Obama powers to re-election despite weak economy
By DAVID ESPO, AP
33 minutes ago
WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama rolled to re-election Tuesday night, vanquishing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney despite a weak economy that plagued his first term and put a crimp in the middle class dreams of millions.
“This happened because of you. Thank you” Obama tweeted to supporters in celebration.
DOW up. Employment up. Corporate profits up. Mfg up.
But let’s not let the facts get in the way.
Tell DAVID ESPO from AP not me.
here’s what’s going to happen with obama getting re-elected.
in general, the economy will continue to deteriorate. that means that the dollar will weaken, which means price inflation will pick up. real wages will continue to fall, even if they manage to remain the same or rise in nominal dollars. making a living will steadily get more difficult. at some point the stress of the government spending much more than it takes in will cause a huge bust. when it happens, it will likely be sudden.. leaving too little time to protect yourself.
suicides will rise along with the misery index. crime will continue to increase even if it isn’t reported. as a matter of fact, reported crimes may actually go down because people know that nothing will be done. many people seem to think that crime can’t get much worse. but it can. and it’s going to. in mexico, most homes have their windows and doors barred. we’ll be doing the same thing here more and more. the destitution that will envelope us will make everyone more desperate.
all the news anchors will be smiling and telling us that everything is fine. they’ll tell us cute stories while the civilized world crumbles around us. they’ll put on their sad faces and serious voices when they have to report something bad. too bad they’re all phony as can be. they’re hired for their looks, and most of them are idiots.
cities, states and pensions will continue to run out of money. they’ll probably get some form of bailout which will only make the situation worse. if they don’t get bailed out, they are going to fail.
obama is evil incarnate. much more than has ever been discussed on this forum. in the near future you’ll find out what he’s been doing behind the scenes (remember he’ll be able to be much more ‘flexible’ with putin). he’ll be doing things that the liberal media will never tell you. most likely by the time you find out, it will be too late to do anything about it.
romney is a big spending liberal, but at least he probably would have killed obamacare and rolled back some business killing regulations. also, when the country enters the big economic crisis, there’s a chance he would have called some austrian or classical economists for some advice. as it stands, we’re all going to punished for being so ignorant about economics. austrian economics should have been taught all the way through school.
the thing no one can know is the precise timing of the big crisis. and the only thing that’s certain is that this huge government spending can’t be sustained.
nothing will get better from this point on.
To quote the eternal wisdom of The Decider, “Bring It On!”
The Long Hot Summer is coming
The Long Hot Summer is coming
You already said that last winter.
“obama is evil incarnate.”
My SIL informed my wife a while back that Obama is behind a program of secret chip implants which will make Americans far more susceptible into going into credit card debt owed to China…or somesuch conspiracy theory…
keep playing with the ice on the deck.
you forgot that cats and dogs will be living together.
Legalized gay marriage is a slippery slope, as Rick Santorum noted. After it leads to human-dog sexual relations, cat-dog sex is next.
Yeah those morons…why couldn’t they just help out a dj and make it a jobs program….straight people are just shackin up… not much money to be made there…….ooohhh
not much money to be made there…….ooohhh
you had it right in another post you wrote. get your obamaphone. money is being taken from you in other ways to pay for it, so don’t feel guilty about getting all you can. you might as well join the free$hit army now.
if you think the last four years have been bad, just think what an already law-breaking obama will do now that he doesn’t have to worry about winning another election.
the libs have some easy outs like overpopulation and ‘climate change’. get ready for a life of hell like you’ve never seen before. (and get ready for the things you suspect are coming but never speak of).
Doom! DOOOOOOOOOOM!
“why couldn’t they just help out a dj and make it a jobs program”
There may be lots of DJ jobs for all of the gay marriages in Maryland, Maine, and Washington.
It’s already happening. I’m noticing more and more grey squirrels with red tails.
Actually, my question is on polygamy. It’s an eminently biblical form of the family. It’s consenting adults. I wonder why it’s illegal.
I’m not at all trying to bash gay marriage, I voted for the gay marriage question in Maryland. But this whole “Marriage is between one man and one woman” is from a PR guy’s desk, not the bible.
Oh hell he might get lucky like Clinton did in his second term. Meaning the tech boom, not Monica.
Nice post TJ!
“nothing will get better from this point on.”
If I was still coaching little league I would not ask you to talk to the kids before or after the game.
Your delusions are jaw dropping.
your gullibility is jaw dropping.
nothing will get better from this point on.
How can it? Only 1 out of 200 have any real money.
In a civil society, we gotta be able to disagree without suggesting our opponents are “evil incarnate.”
Now, sometimes they are evil incarnate. Like a serial killer is a good candidate for evil incarnate. However, sometimes, they’re just wrong or uninformed.
It’s a basic human tendency to think that, “Since I’m right, then my opponent must be at best mis-informed, or at worst, evil.” It’s a tendency that should be controlled because it doesn’t lead to informative debate for either party.
Obama 56,234,742
Romney 54,791,207
I was one of the 54,791,207 losers.
LOOSERS!
We voted for the looser too, for Gary Johnson. But at least weed is legal now here.
How many votes did Johnson muster? (I went for him, knowing full well my vote didn’t count anyway…)
“How many votes did Johnson muster?”
Jill kicked his a**!
Did he get more votes in CA than Roseanne Barr?
Per the Denver Post, Johnson got 1,147,420 votes nationally with 97% of precincts reporting.
That’s okay, Obama still wants to work with you.
“That’s okay, Obama still wants to work with you.”
By Tim Shipman in Washington
4:20PM GMT 24 Jan 2009
After less than a week in office, Mr Obama’s presidency is already encountering the very partisan bickering he had pledged to stamp out during his first 100 days.
He faces mounting criticism over his $825 billion economic stimulus plan, from Republican leaders who say the legislation has been drawn up without the input which Mr Obama had promised to allow them.
The president responded with a clear signal that he is prepared to ram the bill through without the bipartisan consensus he promised to construct, telling Republican leaders from the House of Representatives: “I won. I’m the president.”
Gee, I wonder why?
You wonder why he faced mounting criticism over his $825 billion economic stimulus plan?
If Facebook is to be believed, expect a run on tinfoil to make all the hats required. Members of my family are convinced that Obama is planning a coup and will set himself up as dictator. I kid you not, they actually posted that. At least we won’t have to have any more elections!
Oh, I can beat that. My in-laws spent a few hours last month talking to me about how Obama was going to setup death camps and institute a “one world government” (whatever in the he(( that means).. When I asked them where they heard this (after I debunked all of it with about 10 seconds on Google), they replied “church”. I just shook my head..
I voted (reluctantly) for Romney, but, not because I think that BO is going to setup death camps. I voted R because I think that they are less likely to raise my taxes, which, frankly, is biggest way in which a president impacts my life.
Frankly, the Republican’s need to regroup and figure out a new overall platform. I’d be happy if they moved towards a more libertarian stance (low taxes, less regulation and government), but they need to do something. God/guns/taxes is not a viable way to run a campaign anymore, they need to find a way to appeal to a broader base.
…they replied “church”.
Sadly that’s where most Americans get their information.
Don’t forget Faux News.
…and AM talk “news”.
God/guns/taxes is not a viable way to run a campaign anymore, they need to find a way to appeal to a broader base
After a scorched earth agenda with everyone outside of your southern white/male dominated base for the last 20 years, who the hell would want to hold hands with you in the future ??
Geez, I need to get out more. I never hear anything like that around here.
Buncha crazy people in the rest of the country.
I voted R because I think that they are less likely to raise my taxes, which, frankly, is biggest way in which a president impacts my life.
No one really wants to pay more taxes, that’s a given. Yes, that’s true even for liberals.
As a (new) home owner these issues affect me more now than they did even a few months ago - property taxes here in SF are not cheap.
As a teacher and a parent I voted for Prop 30 because without it the ramifications for the public schools would have been devastating. For the schools and the kids. Public schools here are already cut to the bone.CA schools rank 35th in the US for per pupil spending.
But also as a two teacher household, we would have been looking at a shorter school year by almost 4 weeks - basically furlough days X2 - a 24% pay decrease for our family. Ouch. That would have hurt. Not to mention having to squeeze in the same amount of teaching and learning in a shorter period of time.
I can deal with higher sales tax.
We heard the same sort of garbage when Bush was re-elected. How he was going to use emergency powers to rescind the constitution and stay in office. Crazy knows no party affiliation.
How is that new vs the last four and a half years?
200+ times I’ve read weekly on the internet how he hasn’t declared martial law, replaced the federal christmas holiday with kwanza, and grabbed our guns YET but I know for certain that this time around it is really going to start next week, no kidding this time. Without 4 more years of this kind of help from the republicans, I donno if a democrat can win next election.
Prepare to endure four more years of tinfoil hat Republican rants.
Can orange pumpkin head potentially get himself locked up for sedition?
SALON
Tuesday, Nov 6, 2012 08:41 PM PST
Donald Trump loses it, calls for “revolution”
The Donald has purged his account of its most unhinged tweets, but not before we were able to make a screen grab
By David Daley
…
When do they cross the line? OK, let’s get this revolution started. What are your commands General Trump?
Looking forward to it. Everyone who voted for Bush in 2004 deserves a second Obama term.
They also deserve Hillary 2016.
I’m thinking Hillary is done.
Yeah, she’ll be too old and has zero charisma.
Yeah, she’ll be too old and has zero charisma.
Agreed. I have heard her speak and I think to myself, this gal is married to Bill Clinton? Didn’t he ever give her some coaching in how to be a good speaker?
Agree. What happened to Hillary between the campaign and being Secretary of State? She aged 15 years in like a month. Makes me wonder if she has a health problem. I think in 2016 it will go back to competing governors.
Or maybe she just stopped having professionals do her hair and makeup once she wasn’t running any more?
Or maybe she just stopped having professionals do her hair and makeup once she wasn’t running any more?
Someone in her position doesn’t just give up on such things. You’re a senior government official, you have pros handling your hair, makeup, and wardrobe. It’s just part of the game.
I think something else is going on with Hillary, and it’s not being publicized. She looks like she’s taking some sort of steroid medication.
What happened to Hillary between the campaign and being Secretary of State?
I never liked her much until now. That lady has toed the line for 30 years now.
hair and makeup
Give it a break, will ya?
Excessive air travel is murder on one’s cell biology on a molecular level. Earth’s atmosphere protects us from the worst of cosmic and solar radiation. As such, the less distance you have between yourself and outer space, the greater the damage to your cells will be. 747 fuselages don’t protect you for squat. Sec’s of State spend A LOT of time in the air flying around the globe. Go back and check out before and after pics of Sec Allbright and Condi Rice also. I have personal experience with this myself. My mom and godmother are the same age, but my flight attendant godmother looks 15 years older.
Give it a break, will ya?
Just speculating on the “15 years in a month” statement. I personally don’t care what she looks like.
Just speculating on the “15 years in a month” statement. I personally don’t care what she looks like.
I just can’t stand the constant scrutiny everyone gives successful women on their looks and clothing, especially when they have jobs that have nothing to do with how they look or dress.
I mean, if you have hair like Donald Trump or go out on a fashion limb then it’s fair game, but otherwise who the heck cares?
Not me.
Thanks Stewie, that’s real information. But then, wouldn’t Hillary have aged during her time as First Lady? Lots of flying there too.
sfhomeonwer, I am not scrutinizing her as a woman vs. man. I’m observing her as a person who looks like they aged faster than they should have, which is relevant to whether they can run 4 years from now. You know who else aged like that? Lincoln, and almost all other Presidents… all men.
Prepare to endure four more years of tinfoil hat Republican rants.
I think it will lessen. Last night was hard for them. God Bless Them. They are fellow Americans and many of our friends.
We are all in uncharted territory. Good luck America.
They are new to the tinfoil hat crowd. The last election they were mad McCain lost, but they didn’t start actually foaming at the mouth like this time. Fortunately, it was only one brother and his family. My republican sister is much more reasonable about the situation.
You guys forgot about the one of him being part of the Muslim Brotherhood.
One of my Tucson friends just posted about this tinfoil hat thing on his blog.
I heard people frothing about Bush imposing martial law and installing himself as dictator for years.
The stress of not getting their way brings out the frothers.
Honestly, I think one could make the case that it’s been in the bag for Obama all along, and the Mittster was just the stooge they chose (I mean seriously, he was serially less popular than Michelle Bachmann? Herman Cain? Rick Santorum?) to play the part through the election season and milk another couple of billion out of the partisan populace.
When you think about it, installing a whole new administration and getting them trained would have taken way too much time and cost too much money, and there’s always the chance that a new administration would have thrown a ringer into the Street’s carefully-lain feng shui.
But maybe the RNC will take this opportunity to reevaluate its emphasis on divisive social issues, throw out some of the know-nothing dead wood in its leadership, and get the party back on track. I’d like to think so.
get the party back on track
They won’t. Expect them to double down on the reactionary neanderthal politics of Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, et cetera.
Karl Rove was on Faux News this morning, saying that they lost the election because “they failed to get people to understand their message”
Wrong, dumazz……your message was understood perfectly. That’s why you lost.
Expect them to double down on the reactionary neanderthal politics of Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, et cetera.
Face it, they imploded.
I’d like to think so ??
So would I….
“Honestly, I think one could make the case that it’s been in the bag for Obama all along, and the Mittster was just the stooge they chose (I mean seriously, he was serially less popular than Michelle Bachmann? Herman Cain? Rick Santorum?) to play the part through the election season and milk another couple of billion out of the partisan populace.”
I think there is a modicum of truth in those words. I didn’t like Mitt when he ran against McCain because he backed off and didn’t show any backbone. The RNC handlers said McCain and Mac it was. Now it was his time but the big money running this country at this time feel they have a grasp of where Obi’s interests lie and I’ll bet they where shocked at the upswelling of votes in Mitt’s direction.
There’s that. Another angle is that Obama looked like a juggernaut during the primary season. First black president, so it’s going to be hard to really ferociously attack him up the middle without turning off large swathes of registered voters. Then, he whacked Bin Laden, which was the culmination of a ten year mission. He looked like a juggernaut.
Recall Clinton v. Bush I. Bush I had his victorious war, a modern day Caesar, so only the pikers and dead enders were going to join the campaign. One of whom was a chubby, womanizing governor from a backwater state, Bill Clinton.
But, the campaign is always a roll of the dice. Anything can happen. And it did, so Clinton became an iconic two term president presiding over a fat, prosperous time in American history. I’m thinking Romney was hoping for the same sort of result. He’s making millions of dollars a year in interest. He doesn’t have to show up for work on Monday. So - why not run and see what happens?
It was rich guys (Cain, Huntsman, Romney) and B-list politicians trying to restart their careers (Gingrich, Santorum, Pawlenty (who is now the head of a banking lobbying group)).
2016, now that’s wide open. That should attract some compelling contenders.
2016, now that’s wide open. That should attract some compelling contenders.
On both sides. Biden = wide open.
In other news, marijuana now appears to be legal in Colorado. Looks like I need to book a flight to Denver to enjoy the first time in my short life when I can legally enjoy recreational MJ.
This is probably a bigger deal than BO being re-elected, the impossibly expensive drug war seems to be finally drawing to a close. Perhaps we can start to treat this as a social and medical issue instead of a legal one?
…and in Washington. Surprisingly, instead of burning one, Oregon’s ganja measure went down in flames.
“Oregon’s ganja measure went down in flames”
You meant to write
“… up in smoke”
I’m not sure legalizing really matters. For example, ALL jobs in WI, and I mean ALL jobs, have drug testing and will not hire you when you fail and will fire you immediately with cause if you fail while employed. Apparently you can’t even bag groceries if you smoked two weeks ago. I am not making this stuff up or exaggerating.
As a side note, because the false positive rate is pretty high, this is a huge problem. I don’t smoke but all job offers are really only 97% to 99% job offers because I might be rejected without appeal.
The police won’t throw you in jail, but you’ll get the economic death penalty and never be allowed to work again, so I’m not sure its much of a win.
Then again the labor force participation rate is absolutely imploding, so the 40% and growing of the population without a job probably don’t care, although I’m not clear how they’ll afford the weed.
“… although I’m not clear how they’ll afford the weed.”
Lol. Truly, you need to get out more often.
If the need for weed by a person overpowers his need for a job then that should say something for his need for weed.
And if a person’s need for weed prevents him for getting a good job then he will have to find other ways to get get money. And if these other ways result in a criminal record then he will always be excluded from getting a good job, weed or not.
He maybe, someday, will be able to walk away from weed but it will be tough to walk away from a criminal record.
Thanks for the Reefer Madness wisdom, combo.
MJ drug testing is kind of silly, it’s stays in your system so long that a test tells you nothing about the last time I used it, just that I did sometime in the last 30+ days.
Good news for the professional/executive class is that almost none of those jobs have anything more than (at most) an employment drug test. Bad news for blue collar jobs; which, IMHO, is terribly unfair. I suppose it’s an employer’s prerogative, but, at the same time, why punish people for no reason?
MJ drug testing is kind of silly,
My friend works for PetroBras. He says Brazil has no drug tests.
And I can drink beer walking down the street and at the beach.
There are many definitions of freedom.
ALL jobs in WI, and I mean ALL jobs, have drug testing and will not hire you when you fail ??
Do they also test for;
Nicotine, Caffeine, Alcohol, Prescription drugs, Over the counter medicine ??
If MJ is legal, how could it be treated any differently then the above ??
I think it would not stand a legal test…
Since medical marijuana is already legal, the legislature has been trying to pass a DUI standard law. Article here:
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_21548282?stopRedirect=true
The false positive rate is nil if the right tests are done with proper higher cut off rates. For a habitual user who stops it can take six months for traces of the drug to clear the system.
In the late seventies when testing was first suggested it was only supposed to be for safety only. For example truckers driving the highways, cops carrying guns, people working around heavy equipment or moving machinery, and then things morphed out of hand. No one outside these areas should be required to take a test. A lab taking a urine sample can tell an insurance company a lot about you and any medical conditions you have. When I was doing drug testing (forensic toxicology) I could isolate over two hundred drug/medications in a urine sample within a half hour.
There are plenty of ways to pass a drug test. I have had my MML in Washington for few years, and had to take a drug test for my last (and current) job two years ago. And passed. And I know many other peaople that can pass urine tests, which are most commonly administered.
I asked a recruiter friend what would happen if I was not hired because of a positive result on a prescribed drug and he told be that would be a battle that my company would probably not want to fight.
I am glad of the I-502 passsing in Washington, even though I’ve been growing a few plants for personal use legally for years. (I’ve never sold it, although thankgfully I can buy from a legal dispensary now versus the pizza delivery boy, as in the past.) And let me add that I drink zero alcohol, am on no other prescribed meds, and am in the best phyiscal shape I’ve ever been in. Nothing has changed for me with this passage of I-502.
Now school kids are tested.
I need to book a flight to Denver
Please do. And bring all your friends and ALL your tourist dollars to spend.
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_21941918/nation-watches-colorados-marijuana-legalization-vote
I certainly will; I’ve been talking with a few good friends from college already and I think we’re going to plan a big trip out there to do some hiking and toking next spring. We were thinking about the Canadian Rockies (Banff), but, looks like CO just pushed itself firmly into “must see” group over Banff.
I wonder how many people are making similar changes or new plans today as a result of this vote? I’m guessing we’re talking something like 10-15K that’s going to be spent (between the 6 of us) in Colorado vs Alberta. I wonder if there will be enough of that to actually make a measurable difference.
I am SO happy I moved to Washington!
Rocky Mountain High
Thanks for that post Pbear…One of my favorite songs of all time and in a live performance Denver nailed it…
http://www.psdschools.org/school/rocky-mountain-high-school
For some reason, I’m seeing Beavis and Butthead snickering over the this school’s name.
hiking and toking next spring
Depending on the conditions, you may need showshoes and avalanche beacons. Last spring was very dry, but the 2010-2011 winter lasted well into spring with epic snowfalls throughout the month of May and the high country not melted out until July/August.
The only thing that remains is for Colorado and Washington to set up a tax structure for it. If they do that successfully all other states and the Feds will follow.
Finally, a step in the right direction. Think of all the new social programs(Liberals) and F-35 Joint Strike Fighters (Conservatives) we will be able to afford with the added tax revenue and the decline in cost of maintaining both a prison system on steroids and the outfitting/”training” of a militarized police force.
Just thought of another benefit: The Mexicans will rejoice once this takes hold; the Zetas will be less likely to annihilate villages or chop peoples heads off if they can just obtain a tax ID and drive the stuff across the border with no fuss.
We grow the best buds in the country right here in Colorado, we don’t want that Mexican dirt weed. They can sell it to the kidz in the other 48 states where it remains illegal.
I’m thinking more along the lines of full legalization of drugs. Down the road.
OTH, Montana had this weird referendum affirming tight restrictions on medical pot that won handily…it was worded so that ‘yes’ meant ‘no’ on pot, more or less.
Maybe the voters understood, maybe they didn’t.
This is true only if you believe in “state rights” that Kooky thing the Confederacy was trying to maintain.
You remember, that the Federal Government had “limited” powers and the States could write laws for the people in their State, limiting FEDERAL intrusion for alone EXPRESSED mandates of Constitutionality.
So, do you think the “Courts” will rule that the Federal government has Superior mandates as a matter of “interstate commerce”??
What will they do? Will the Feds bust you, or can you 420 your way to nirvana?
We’ll see.
I’m a State’s rights guy, but most Democrats prefer BIG National “mandates”. You might get what you wanted from the National government: Enforcement.
The only thing the Confederacy was trying to maintain was slavery.
So I guess we now all know that the Rasmussen Poll (often quoted here) is a notoriously incompetent right leaning bunch of BSers. Yes?
No it was very accurate and it captured the fact it was going to be a close election when many were predicting earlier that it was a going to be a blow away. It did not have the wide swings throughout the whole election.
Other thoughts:
Bush II was reelected by a similar margin it meant very little. This was not a Reagan type re-election.
While I think the nation lost, I doubt if unemployment goes under 7% during his second term, the Republicans are better off that they do not have to impose the austerity that will be needed after 6 trillion has been added to the debt and do not have to worry about a collapse on their watch.
The metals will do quite well due to it being game on with easy money but that will soon endanger our status as a reserve currency which has dire implications.
As far as the Republicans and demographic trends, remember at one time the Irish were considered a danger to the Republicans now they are part of the base.
Bush II was reelected by a similar margin it meant very little ??
Margin maybe but its a much different voter base so it really is the game changer;
Bush…2004 won with 60% of the White male vote….
Obama…2012 won with 40% of the white male vote….
The “Take America Back!” crowd is demographically doomed.
Rasmussen is pretty good once you apply Nate Silver’s filter to it. Back before he went to the NY Times he would get into the weeds on how he devised a function to adjust for their right wing bias and you just take any poll they take and subtract 3 points from the Rep. number.
I think that Rasmussen was accurate but remember he was measuring likely voters. This election was decided by registered voters. He is what I believe happen yesterday. The Republicans came out in force early. Democrats that were not likely voters, saw the turnout on their local TV stations and read reports and realized that Obama might just lose the election and they turned out in force. That is why the stock market jumped early but then started to lose some of the gain. Republicans always have this problem, how do you motivate your base without motivating the democratic voters that might not show up. Registered voter polls are always much more favorable to democrats than republicans. You might say that they have the stronger bench and I believe the bench players won this one. You do not have to move around a lot of votes in this one to have a Romney electoral win.
You think this election turned on people who were so apathetic they weren’t planning to vote at all paying such good attention to the early turn out numbers that they decided to vote late the day and actually managed to do it?
Do you have ANY numbers at all to back up a narrative like that?
Dan, I think history will show this was Sandy’s election. The timing was EVERYTHING. A lot(most) of Americans live in the now with very short term memories. Look how hard FOX pushed the Libyan incident but they couldn’t make it stick because a bigger story(Sandy) crushed their 24/7 coverage of 4 dead Americans overseas. Billions spent, poof! The new GOP can not be a repeat of the 2012 Republican primaries.
God must be on Obama’s side.
Bluestar, the movement back to Obama started before Sandy. At one point Rasmussen had Romney up four points, with about two weeks to go, I was just about to call it for Romney. It has dropped to 2 just before Sandy and then went to 0 before recovering to one just before the election. I don’ t think the one is much more than noise. Interestingly, it seem to start when gasoline prices started to decline and I think people saw other signs which suggested to them an improving economy.
I don’t argue that demographics were not important just that if the election would have happen on the plus four day, Romney would have won despite it. In the end the swing states voted like swing states and reflected the rest of the countries totals.
I do think that the Republicans must do a better job of appealing to groups such as Asians and legal immigrants of all races but changing its views on illegals is flushing the country down the drain for a short term political gain.
Country’s total. As far as requiring IDs, I think was successfully portrayed as voter suppression and did backfire.
But look any attack on Obama is very easy to portray as racism and any minority group is going to be receptive to that message.
Gov. Martinez actually had success in NM arguing for no driver’s licenses for illegals but being a minority helps to deflect a racism charge. Which also helps is that fact that many of the Latino’s here have been here for hundreds of years and are not recent immigrants.
“how do you motivate your base without motivating the democratic voters that might not show up”
I suspect that the voter suppression tactics backfired and served to fire up the Democrats in key swing states. I know a few people who voted for the first time due to voter suppression in other states.
“The Republicans came out in force early. Democrats that were not likely voters, saw the turnout on their local TV stations and read reports and realized that Obama might just lose the election and they turned out in force.”
Yes, I hear that from now on, Rasmussen will account for this potentially apathetic subgroup in its calculations. Oy.
By contrast, check out the move on this “poll” over the last few days (especially yesterday’s move!):
2012 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market
The last-minute move in the 2012 US Presidential Election Vote Share Market is far less spectacular, as it tracks the percentages of the vote going to each candidate, not the market’s subjective probability of a win. So this one would only move by a large amount on Election Day if market participants were way off the mark in predicting the candidates’ respective shares of the popular vote.
Better luck next time to Rasmussen.
Or that only polling those with land lines doesn’t work anymore.
Professional statisticians figured out the problem with relying on telephone polls decades ago, no?
Rasmussen adjusts for cell phones.
What went wrong?
“What went wrong?”
The same thing that tripped up the Quants. Money.
Apparently their adjustments were dead wrong.
My understanding is that Rasmussen assumed white turn out would be 78% of the total. It was only 72%.
I think another of their problems was the adjusting for people self-declaring themselves as Republicans, Democrats or Independents. Seems that people are more likely to lie to the pollster on party affiliation than on regular demographic identifiers, so the adjustments based on party affiliation mess with the numbers. No idea why that is. Then again, I started a poll a few weeks ago and hung up once they asked if I was over 18 after I had already given them my year of birth. So people like me were likely to be under sampled in “stupid polls that can’t bother to do even the most basic arithmatic.”
Hurricane Sandy gave Obama an opening, then Christie cemented his victory.
As Chris Matthews said, “I’m so glad we had that storm last week…” In his mind, the collateral damage of a hundred-plus lives is regrettable, but it was in service to the greater good.
What if Romney had chosen Christie as his running mate? I’m guessing a different outcome would have resulted, though one can never say for sure, as you can’t run history twice.
Hurricane Sandy gave Obama an opening, then Christie cemented his victory ??
Really Bill….?? Just sour Grapes ?? If it makes you eel better then you can believe that…This is what I see as the reason for the Obama decisive victory;
Obama won;
93% of the black vote
(contrary to a southern belief, Blacks do know how find the voting location and how to fill out a voter ballot)
71% of the Latino vote
( 50,000 latino turn 18 years old each day )
67% of unmarried women
( Go ahead…Keep embracing the Akin’s, Murdoch’s, and Ryan’s as your mouth-piece on issues important to women )
60% of voters ages 18-29
( Go ahead, loose the support of a group that has 50 more years of voting ahead of them while your base die’s out )
He was likely talking about last week vs this week, not last week vs not at all.
Dave, at my age it doesn’t really matter who won yesterday. As I said in an earlier post neither major party is interested in reversing the slow journey to totalitarianism.
The Akins and Bachmanns are truly dinosaurs and they do impact the choice many voters make. I was just saying Chris Matthews has a point. Sandy did help Obama.
“Sandy did help Obama.”
What I said the day she hit…(I assume it was the female version of Sandy, right?).
Dave, at my age it doesn’t really matter who won yesterday ??
Well, ditto here Bill but we do have children now don’t we…And, I do care deeply about this wonderful country that I have been blessed to be born in…
The Akins and Bachmanns are truly dinosaurs ??
Yes along with many others…
I was just saying Chris Matthews has a point. Sandy did help Obama ??
Well, I would agree that it did remove from the 24 hour news cycle politics for a few days…Moved the needle ?? Marginally at best IMO…I think the republican primaries backed the cake for the republican party along with the Ryan pick for VP…
As I went through my sample ballots and did some digging on each local candidate yesterday I think I finally came to a “break” with our democratic system. I’ve always been an independent and an outsider, but this was a first. I browsed various interviews with each candidate and realized that not a single one of them came anywhere close to agreeing with me on any core issues.
Not abortion or immigration or gay marriage or any issue that they’d want us to consider a core issue, but the issues that I’ve been raised to believe are important to a free and democratic society. Extra-judicial killings, warrantless searches, waging war, freedom of expression, freedom of religion and freedom from state sponsored religion, justice, debt, spending, political fundraising, political procedure, right to bear arms, free markets with appropriate regulation, and most importantly that these rights may only be guaranteed to US citizens, but they were inherent to all humans.
Now I’m not young and not old, but I can’t find a candidate that I can agree with for even 20% of these issues. I’ve always been an outsider but I’ve also always been able to find a few candidates that would at least pay lip service to the founding principles of this country, at least how I would see them. Yesterday, I could not.
I live in one of the most liberal states in the Union and I couldn’t find a single local candidate who would stand up and say that sending a robot to bomb a wedding party in a foreign nation without a declaration of war, without a right for the suspects to confront their accuser or see the evidence against them, and without a trial, was something that not only went against all that this country used to stand for, but was something that this country would be vilified for by history.
And don’t even get me started on Fannie and Freddie.
Yup. Which is why we voted for Gary Johnson.
And for Ron Paul in the 2008 and 2012 primaries.
And for Dennis Kucinich when we lived in his district.
I was just listening to Kucinich on the radio, he was making good points about the NDAA/Drone president. Yep, Obama is the first president to officially have the power to assassinate American citizens. And he really loves that Drone action, makes Bush look like a piker. I’m so proud.
Not that Romney would have changed any of that.
My dilemma throughout this election was that I couldn’t decide which one I wanted to lose more.
JEB 2016!
I don’t know what is going to be so fascinating. Ultimately we are going to have to pay the piper. Profligate spending can’t go on forever. I am glad the election is over, but at the end of the day not much changed. Something has to give.
It is a great sound bite to attack the rich and talk about how they should pay their fair share. The sad part is the middle class is going to receive less services and is going to have to pay more taxes. There is no way around that reality. I look forward to seeing if the President is willing to make the hard choices
The middle class will come to realize that the “rich” cannot be taxed enough to pay for all the suspending and that they now are the “new” rich as far as taxation is concerned. It is sort of like giving someone your credit card - sure they are buying you all sorts of new things, but it is nothing you wanted or would have bought yourself and ultimately you will get the bill at the end of the month.
“sure they are buying you all sorts of new things, but it is nothing you wanted or would have bought yourself and ultimately you will get the bill at the end of the month.”
Sounds like an American Christmas.
suspending = spending
Mitt paid 13% tax on his total income.
The avg middle class person pays 28% on his total income.
Do you REALLY think that is fair?
Sorry, Mitt paid a lot less than 13% of his total income in some years(that is only what he admMITTed to) and the average middle class person pays less than 28% but, a higher percentage than Mitt.
the “rich” cannot be taxed enough to pay for all the suspending
It will pay for a big chunk.
Well, unlike Romney and Ryan, he didn’t promise huge tax cuts for the rich that would magically pay for themselves, so that’s a start.
Meanwhile, corporations will continue to decimate the middle class. Anecdote du jour: At my brother’s $4B in sales per year, super profitable employer, they missed the insatiable Wall St. profit targets by 3%. This of course means one thing: mass layoffs, which was announced on election day.
In the official email missive, the excuse for the layoffs was to keep the company “healthy”. In closing, the CEO thanked the employees for their commitment to the company. Too bad this commitment isn’t a two way street.
“Well, unlike Romney and Ryan”
I was really looking forward to the end of the election cycle so these “pissing contests” would end. Too soon? It is like five year olds on the play ground. The point is, it is unsustainable no matter who said what. Are we past the tipping point where the mob rules and democracy becomes a means of equally distributing poverty. I am not sure what this will do to the work ethic of the country and if we are headed towards the same fate as Europe. Why do scenes from “Soylent Green” keep popping into my head?
I am really interested to hear FPSS’s and Combotechie’s views about the future of America. Is cash still king only because the rest of the world is more f&%#ed than we are?
Is cash still king only because the rest of the world is more f&%#ed than we are?
Why not? It’s been that way for a while.
Are we past the tipping point where the mob rules and democracy becomes a means of equally distributing poverty.
I think that Corporate America has done a bang up job of decimating the middle class. The “mob rule” is merely the reaction of a populace tired of getting screwed. Tired of getting laid off not because they were doing a poor job, but only because the company didn’t meet its lofty profit targets. As for the wealthy elites “getting it”, we all know how that works.
I’m not sure. I still scratch my head that Carly got on a ballot in California.
In closing, the CEO thanked the employees for their commitment to the company. Too bad this commitment isn’t a two way street.
Yes, the concept of the company owing its employees anything in return for their labor and loyalty is a quaint, outdated notion. Certainly among publicly traded corporations. My own nonprofit health care employer has an employee “loyalty” program that I find more than a little creepy. Employees might be more ‘loyal’ if they were paid better and treated better. That is not part of the equation, however.
Employers complain about job hoppers, buy why stay put if:
a) There won’t be raises
b) You’ll eventually be laid off, especially since having an employment gap on your resume is the current scarlet letter. Better to job hop and avoid those damaging gaps.
“At my brother’s $4B in sales per year, super profitable employer, they missed the insatiable Wall St. profit targets by 3%”
What business are they in? If they are dependent on military spending, the layoffs might be reasonable in light of the fiscal cliff.
We may now have Bernanke for another 5 years, more printing…got hard assets?
The really sad part is that if the deficit issue isn’t solved soon (like get us on the right path this presidential term), the middle class is going to get hit with inflation as well. To sum:
Middle/lower class: Double whammy of fewer services, and higher cost of “needs”
Upper class: Higher taxes partially (or more than) made up through inflation of the assets they own.
My only hope is that with no election looming for Obama, he is actually going to be willing to do some things that piss off the far left (like means-test entitlements, etc.), in order to make a deal on revenue-increasing tax reform with the right (a la Simpson-Bowles).
However, given his record on the matter thusfar, I’m not holding my breath.
Rogue voting machine switches sides
Polling problems were reported in Pennsylvania, including a voting machine that registered for Mitt Romney even when the button for Barack Obama was pressed.
A state spokesman said the voter told elections officials of the problem. Video of the glitch was widely viewed on YouTube.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/1107/breaking6.html
Oh the joys of technology; still keeps me in a job.
Congratulations Folks,
My sources were wrong and yours were right. Like wow, was I wrong.
Lip
What were your sources? I’m sure you mentioned them a few times, but a summary would be interesting now that it is all over.
What do you call a person that won’t accept an apology and won’t listen to an explanation?
neighborlady: 6 months ago via iPhone
Try to remember that no one is obligated to accept an apology. If you offer an apology to someone with anything but sincerity and an attitude of taking responsibility it may not be accepted. If you toss in excuses you can almost bet it won’t be. Where does the difficulty lie?
sheilawangui: 6 months ago
I would refer to such a person as an arrogant person. This is because he or she displays an exaggerated sense of one’s own importance or abilities and tries to see as if your opinion doesn’t matter at all.
theswede1111: 6 months ago via iPhone
Ignorant
D_Russell: 6 months ago
Ignorance is when the person does not know any better. This person could be arrogant or just stubborn.
jojo2430: 6 months ago via iPhone
Sometimes we can call them mom or daughter or son or father or sister or brother. I call them judge !
http://www.ask.com/answers/143393441/what-do-you-call-a-person-that-won-t-accept-an-apology-and-won-t-listen-to-an-explanation - 220k
None of the commenters considered that the offender may have caused so much pain that the receiver is still recovering and lashing out. In that case an apology will just make things worse.
An apology is NOT a free pass and never was.
But it’s a start…
I like to listen to talk radio, Hugh Hewitt, Rush, Hannity, Dennis Prager, Michael Medved and Fox News (somewhat). IMO they’re right about a lot of things, but this election and the turnout of the folks were not one of them.
I think you’re right about the demographics shift and it seems as though the woman’s right to abortion and/or free medical care were huge in the Democratic turnout.
So, congrats again. You were right all along and that isn’t shocking at all.
Well, if you will recall, all I did was make fun of the people who insisted on predicting the winner, including extensive scorn of P-Bear and his markets. I didn’t even follow the poll geeks all that much over the past few months, though I read some articles that summarized their work. I can’t pretend I am not happy with the result, but I did not predict it and didn’t try to convince anyone else that this would be the result.
I did catch up with the information about the pundit predictions yesterday while waiting for the real results. The basic result is that the people running extensive stats based on poll averages beat out the “instinct” people. Which is interesting all by itself. Some of the strategy people hold themselves out as predictors as well. It seems that sometimes they are just talking their book. Not all that odd once you realize they are mostly being paid to GET someone elected, not to tell others if they will be, but it is important to remember what their paycheck depends on.
“…including extensive scorn of P-Bear and his markets.”
Heaping scorn on others seems to be how attorneys get their jollies…I frankly find it revolting.
But for the record, the prediction market worked beautifully.
Some people deserve scorn. Repeatedly. Especially those who refuse to learn, accept facts and continually make the same mistakes over and over.
Everybody has a bad day and makes mistakes, but some either never learn or refuse to learn.
Patience is not infinite and none of us are Job.
“Some people deserve scorn.”
Indeed. I’ll bear that in mind next time you make a scorn-worthy post.
But thanks for answering my question. Congrats should be aimed at anyone who was actually prognosticating.
Thanks Lip. I hope lady luck smiles on you. Live long and prosper.
“Thanks Lip. I hope lady luck smiles on you. Live long and prosper.”
“The willingness to forgive is a sign of spiritual and emotional maturity. It is one of the great virtues to which we all should aspire. Imagine a world filled with individuals willing both to apologize and to accept an apology. Is there any problem that could not be solved among people who possessed the humility and largeness of spirit and soul to do either — or both — when needed?”
― Gordon B. Hinckley, Standing for Something: 10 Neglected Virtues That Will Heal Our Hearts and Homes
I know, I know. Gordon B. Hinckley was the 15th President of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
You remind me — Romney gave a very gracious concession speech.
Now back to BAIN and start the mass firings….that will get obewanna goat!
I’m certain that we will be treated to more predictions of Tea Party and Neocon “landslides” in 2016.
And they might happen. I just don’t choose to believe it until it either 1) actually happens or 2) someone makes a persuasive argument that it will. Persuasive requires something more than “my special poll that I know is right just because the same company was right once before and for no other reason,” when all the other polls disagree.
Last night was good for math in several ways.
Polly, the only time Rasmussen disagreed with the other polls was when the other polls were spitting out D + 11 results. He was within essentially half a point just before the election. Unlike Morris and Rove, he was calling this election too close to call at the end. I objected to polls or other measures that called this election way too early.
BTW, I think that the PTB even in the Republican party may have gotten what they really wanted. A close election that took oxygen from third parties, and sustained their control of the House. They probably wanted a few more senate seats but know they can block most legislation. They also know that if the country goes back into a recession, Obama will take the blame since blame Bush will not work for two terms although I admit it was more effective this election than I would have thought possible. Also, when imposing austerity it is best to have the other party sharing the blame.
Sorry, Dan. No one in Washington wants to lose. Not for something that will last 4 years, in any case. They make so much more money when their guys are in power.
That sort of thinking is for football teams that are already out of the running and are hoping for better draft picks.
Speaking of Bush and Rasmussen… Rasmussen always was 3-4 points higher for Bush approval levels than the poll averages for his whole regime. Just that fact alone had to tell you they had their finger on the scales. OK, fine, it’s just like converting from Fahrenheit to Celsius like Nate Silver does. Nate also did this for all the major polling firms so PPP was -2 for Dems.
ABQ, seriously?
I don’t have timt to do this for more states, but:
November 1st: Rasmussen WI 49-49%.
Final tally: 53-46 Obama
There wasn’t one other poll from 11-1 on (at least on the 538 blog) that had obama less than 4 points up.
Rasmussen stunk vs the other polls this year.
“I just don’t choose to believe it until it either 1) actually happens or 2) someone makes a persuasive argument that it will.”
So if some government agency (say NOAA’s NWS) predicted a hurricane would strike NYC and you lived there and were told it would be a good idea to evacuate, would you simply ignore the warning and wait to see what happened?
Did you miss “2) someone makes a persuasive argument that it will”? In addition, when the cost of being wrong is very high, you don’t have to be convinced as much to take precautions. Since I don’t make my living predicting election results, there is no up to being right or down to being wrong. I can choose to believe or not with no consequences at all. The same can’t be said of getting caught in a big storm.
“2) someone makes a persuasive argument that it will”
Attorneys try to make persuasive arguments; NOAA NWS makes weather predictions. Don’t you see the difference?
No. When the weather services say “our models predict this and this and the other” they are making an argument that there is a good chance of a weather event impacting a particular area over a stated period of time based on what has happened in similar (though possibly not identical) situations in the past. They even give the chances of what they predict happening in percentages. The are predicting the accuracy of their own models. It is startlingly similar to the people who evaluate election polls. I dated a guy whose job was explaining the computer models to local reporters so they wouldn’t misinterpret the information.
It is entirely unlike the results of crowd sourcing websites in which most of the people who participate are casual observers with nothing but public information (if they even bother to look up that) and some are probably partisans who are trying to use the bet to convince others that their guy is winning in some strange hope that it will create “momentum.”
Read this book and get back to us.
The Wisdom of Crowds [Paperback]
James Surowiecki (Author)
Release Date: August 16, 2005
In this fascinating book, New Yorker business columnist James Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea: Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant–better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.
With boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose, Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, behavioral economics, artificial intelligence, military history, and politics to show how this simple idea offers important lessons for how we live our lives, select our leaders, run our companies, and think about our world.
Polly,
Did you get the file I sent you?
I have read it. It works until it doesn’t.
Neither women’s intuition nor bluster will get you very far with predicting election results.
One thing came out loud and clear from this presidential race: Plenty of Republican commentators with access to the MSM bully pulpit are completely clueless about survey science or its absence.
2012 Poll Accuracy: After Obama, Models And Survey Science Won The Day
Posted: 11/07/2012 8:04 am EST
WASHINGTON — While the election’s biggest winner was President Barack Obama, the other victory on Tuesday night went to the careful application of reason, data and, yes, to the science of modern survey research.
The losers were the amateur poll mavens who sought to “unskew” the polls and the pundits who saw what they wanted to see.
“Nobody knows anything,” Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote on Monday, casting aside the notion that the “the weighting of the polls and the assumptions as to who will vote” could possibly provide accurate guidance on the coming election.
Yet Noonan was certain that Romney would win. How? Intuition, mostly. She was sure that “independents are breaking for Romney.” Also, “there’s the thing about the yard signs.” On a recent trip to Florida, she had seen more Romney than Obama signs.
Others had grand rationalizations for ignoring the polls. “Romney will win by a very large margin, a landslide if you will,” former pollster and Clinton adviser turned conservative pundit Dick Morris told Fox News on Monday. Why? Morris was somehow certain that most polls had sampled too many Democrats and that the undecided vote, “which always goes against the incumbent,” would break to Romney. Needless to say, it didn’t.
On the other side were the quants and the modelers, like our own Simon Jackman and others like Drew Linzer, Sam Wang and, yes, Nate Silver, who set aside hunch and folklore, gathered the hard data from a wide variety of public opinion polls and combined their findings into remarkably consistent predictions of the election outcome.
But if the models were successful and largely consistent, it was because they all worked with roughly same underlying polling data. “It was the pollsters that called it right thus far,” tweeted Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas.
We believe the success of the poll tracking model that Jackman designed for HuffPost Pollster — predicting the winner of all 50 states plus the District of Columbia — owes in part to aggregating the polls alone with relatively little additional data or processing (save for the use of past voting data to help combine national and state-level polls and statistical corrections to help reduce the distortions produced by consistent pollster “house effects”).
Glad to see you didn’t come unhinged like so many others. That was a classy post.
Hear, hear! Well said, Lip.
Thanks Lip.
Good luck to us all in the future.
Bummer for me. My state was supposed to be “too close to call” so I was really looking forward to my Johnson vote representing serious electoral power… but instead it was a “O” landslide something like 7% differential. In that case, the 2% or so total 3rd party votes don’t matter too much. So I assume we’ll continue our decline into hard core statist fascism, with our only choice being 1%er crooks or lapdog quislings of 1%er crooks. Oh well america, some other country will lead the free world soon enough.
I do wonder if the media falsifies reports to gain market share and ad dollars… They all have a huge financial incentive to report the race as too close to call, even if they know its gonna be a landslide.
Maybe the free world doesn’t need a leader, maybe a team effort would produce a better result.
I suppose, if you think Globalization is a good thing.
We have that already, and it’s called Congress.
Also don’t forget the FOMC.
“maybe a team effort would produce a better result”
I don’t think the media would permit that.
I can’t think of an example where the media has permitted it, even way outside the area of discussion, like sports or volunteer work.
Also there’s the negative lead as in that disgusting neocon “if you’re not with us you’re against us” and there’s positive lead as in a statistical analysis shows the worlds best X overall is in country Y, repeat for everything worth optimizing. Where Y = USA, the set X is extremely rapidly shrinking to null and all our politicians on both sides operate as if a null set X is their primary goal.
“my Johnson vote”
I was honored to cast my vote for Johnson and to be part of the little group that “screwed it up for Romney” in Florida. (taking a bow: ty, ty)
It’s all going according to plan.
JEB 2016!
(sarc)
I believe you mean Hillary 2016!
geez its Lady GaGa in 2016 shes the smart one…
The problem with your thinking and that of most election reports is that the numbers are reported as the “spread”.
The actual number of votes is 1/2 then number when you change from one candidate to another.
IF you take 100 voters and give Obama 51 and Romney 49, they say he won by 2%.
That would mean 2 votes.
If ONE person changes from Obama to Romney, it’s a tie. The flip-floppers control the voter spread, and the spoilers like Johnson just kill the Opposition (typically,he however is a bad example).
Congrats to all obama supporters.
I hope he can provide the leadership needed to bring this divided country together.
Didn’t he already fail at this for four straight years?
Time to focus your efforts on this country’s real problems, all those cops and teachers and firefighters and janitors retired at 47 and collecting $250,000 pensions.
Agree…time to pull it all together and fix the problems in front of us–cause they aren’t going away.
“I hope he can provide the leadership needed to bring this divided country together.”
Well said, 2b. I hope he and both houses of Congress remember how evenly divided the overall vote was.
The European Commission has slashed its growth forecasts for the eurozone, and predicted that Spain and France will fail to hit their deficit reduction targets.
The new autumn economic forecasts (released at noon) are quite comprehensive, so here are a few “highlights”:
• Eurozone GDP to fall by 0.4% in 2012, grow by just 0.1% in 2013 and then by 1.4%in 2014.
• Greece’s GDP will fall by 6% in 2012, and by another 4.2% in 2013, followed by 0.6% growth in 2014.
• France’s GDP will grow by 0.2% in 2012, by 0.4% in 2013 and
• Spanish GDP will fall by 1.4% in 2012, and by 1.4% in 2013, before growing by 0.8% in 2014.
As flagged up this morning, those Spanish forecasts are rather more negative than the Madrid government’s officials predictions.
The EC also predicted that France’s deficit would come in at 3.5% of GDP in 2013 and 2014, above the 3% target.
For Spain, it predicts a deficit of 8% of GDP this year, 6% in 2013 and 6.4% in 2014.
Oh well back to the slow grind.
“Oh well back to the slow grind.”
Right. Time to turn attention back to global economic gloom!
Not all voting processes are as orderly as yesterday’s U.S. election was.
Greece faces protests as lawmakers vote on austerity
By Karolina Tagaris and Renee Maltezou
ATHENS | Wed Nov 7, 2012 7:39am EST
(Reuters) - The Greek government overcame divisions on Wednesday to defeat an early challenge to an austerity package needed to secure vital international aid, but it still faced internal dissent and angry protests ahead of a final vote.
Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is expected to narrowly win support for the budget cuts, tax hikes and labor reforms in a parliamentary vote late in the evening. The smallest party in his conservative-liberal coalition opposes the measures.
A ‘no’ vote could break the fragile coalition. The opposition SYRIZA party tried to block the 500-odd page bill by forcing a vote on its constitutionality, but the measure was defeated by the government’s majority.
Tens of thousands of union workers were planning to gather near parliament at around 1500 GMT, on the second day of a nationwide strike that has halted public transport, shut schools, banks and government offices, and caused garbage to pile up on streets.
Backed by the leftist opposition, unions say the measures will hit the poor and spare the wealthy, while deepening a five-year recession that has wiped out a fifth of the country’s output and driven unemployment to 25 percent.
“The bailout policies are completely catastrophic, outrageously absurd, and an utter failure,” Alexis Tsipras, head of the anti-bailout SYRIZA, said in an interview with the Efimerida Syntakton newspaper.
…
More pain for Spain
By Mike Peacock
November 6, 2012
El Pais has seen tomorrow’s European Commission forecasts for Spain and they’re grim. The Commission predicts the economy will slide by 1.5 percent next year while Madrid’s forecast is for a 0.5 percent contraction. That puts the target of getting the budget deficit down to 3 percent of GDP even harder to attain – the Commission predicts a deficit of 6 percent next year and 5.8 percent in 2014 while the Spanish government insists it will get it down to 2.8 percent in two years’ time.
Peering through the numbers, the key question is whether this vista will make it more likely that Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will seek help from the euro zone rescue fund, after which the European Central Bank can intervene to buy Spain’s bonds.
Rajoy has been in no hurry to seek help and given Spain’s funding needs for this year will be met in full after an auction on Thursday there is no pressure on that front. But with the economy in dire straits its borrowing needs are likely to climb next year so a pre-emptive strike would have some merit. It would also give the euro zone the broader benefit of showing the ECB will put its money where its mouth is. ECB policymaker Ewald Nowotny said yesterday that the ECB’s bond-buying programme should be put into use to dispel market doubts – not that that is a consideration for Rajoy.
…
Stand back — she’s gonna blow!
This is one bubble that is just getting bigger
China’s homes getting costlier
By David Pierson and Julie Makinen
Published: 12:51 November 1, 2012
Gulf News
Rising home sales and prices are cheered in the US as keys to an economic recovery. But in China, the prospect of a housing surge is fraying the nerves of policymakers.
Alarmed by ballooning values — and the growing frustration of average citizens fearful of never owning a home — China’s central government in 2010 introduced curbs to cool the nation’s overheated real estate market. It worked.
Tighter credit, a crackdown on speculators and limits on purchases of second homes slowed price rises and stopped some developments cold. But those moves also put the brakes on China’s hard-charging economy, which, like the US, relies heavily on construction and real estate activity.
…
The entire world depends on construction and real estate. Automation and large scale farming have decimated a massive # of jobs. Everyone talks about moving toward a service based economy. The only problem is people w/o money don’t usually buy services they do it themselves or they do without. The central banks can’t fix this problem.
Exactly.
Marie Antoinette didn’t get it either.
Neither did the Medici.
Canada braces as housing slowdown takes hold
By Stabroek staff
World News | Wednesday, November 7, 2012
TORONTO, (Reuters) - Long convinced the country’s housing boom would never end in a crash, Canadians have watched this autumn as a sharp slowdown in real estate spreads across the country, leaving would-be home buyers hopeful and sellers scared.
“The power is in the hands of the buyer – that’s what I’m feeling,” said Andria Petrillo, 32, as she and her husband toured a quiet open house in the heart of Toronto, where crowds and chaos once reigned over weekend home showings.
But like most people shopping for a new home, Petrillo has to sell her old one first. And that’s where she worries.
“With the economy, I’d like to sell now. I worry about selling because it’s a condo, and that market is cooling even faster than houses,” said the newly married sportscaster. “We can’t sell it for a ridiculous amount of money any more.”
Signs are everywhere that Canada’s long run-up in house prices is over, hit by a combination of tighter mortgage lending rules and growing consumer reluctance to take on more debt. Sales of existing homes are down steeply, with condo sales hit especially hard, and some long-booming prices have started to fall.
Sales always slump as the real estate market heads into winter. The big question will be whether spring brings renewal, or confirmation that the party is over.
…
Long convinced the country’s housing boom would never end in a crash, Canadians have watched this autumn as a sharp slowdown in real estate spreads across the country, leaving would-be home buyers hopeful and sellers scared.
But-but-but it’s DIFFERENT here!
It’s always different until it’s not; Australia next?
RBA must cut the cash rate on Melbourne Cup day: John Symond
By Larry Schlesinger
Friday, 02 November 2012
Aussie Home Loans founder John Symond says the Reserve Bank must cut the cash rate on Melbourne Cup Day (November 6).
“Australia continues to be susceptible to economic shocks from overseas and small retailers and businesses are doing it tough as we head into the crucial Christmas retail season,” Symond told Fairfax.
According to Symond, a rate drop would boost retail sales and the rest of the economy – especially employment – “providing much needed confidence to consumers”.
His calls for a rate cut come as the certainty of a Melbourne Cup rate cut shrinks from a sure bet a few weeks ago to now only a “50-50 call”, according to Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe.
Symond has been critical of the Reserve Bank for being too slow to move on rates in the past, accusing governor Glenn Stevens and the RBA board of being “asleep at the wheel”.
He has also dismissed arguments that lower interest rates could fuel a housing bubble.
“I am confident, notwithstanding a lot of hype from offshore analysts about a housing bubble, of Australia’s fundamentals,” Symond said in a speech in October.
…
Told you so.
Now that weed is legal in Colorado, will our rents go up cus of all the stoner kidz moving here?
No. Your economy will go down, as stoner kids add deadweight…
Could there be a upside to this, like a decline in alcohol abuse?
Colorado is the fittest state in USA. And yes we get high on the best buds (grown here). And drink the best beers (brewed here). Unlike other flyover states, we don’t smoke Mexican dirt weed or drink Duff.
Tell me straight. I just have a hunch this might show up in the medical statistics in a few years.
or drink Duff
Sure, we have micros like New Belgium, but we also have Coors.
Your tax rate will go down as revenue from weed flows in and the cost of prosecuting weed users goes down. Less money will exit the state in garbage bags bound for mexico and more money may come in the form of tourism. They need to regulate it, keep big ag from taking over (ie limit the amount one producer can produce), and tax it.
Be careful people of this ilk may move in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=7gphiFVVtUI&feature=endscreen
Thank you for posting this, frankie. Masterful fusion.
Batten down the hatches. Mr Market has a mo-fo of a post-Election Day hangover.
Markets swap election cliffhanger for fiscal one
• Stock futures fall sharply as Obama secures 2nd term
• Where to put your money now that Obama has won
• What Obama’s re-election means for investors
President Barack Obama wins a second term in office. Investors promptly switch focus to budget issues
…
Global DOWn
I thought democrats were good for the stockmarket?
They were right through Election Day
buy the dips!
No money is available for a honeymoon…
Nov. 7, 2012, 5:59 a.m. EST
Fitch: U.S. must fix fiscal cliff to keep AAA
By William L. Watts
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — President Barack Obama won’t enjoy a fiscal honeymoon after winning re-election, with pressure on U.S. officials to resolve the so-called fiscal cliff and other issues in order to maintain the country’s AAA credit rating, Fitch Ratings said Wednesday. “The economic policy challenge facing the president is to put in place a credible deficit-reduction plan necessary to underpin economic recovery and confidence in the full faith and credit of the [United States]. Resolution of these fiscal policy choices would likely result in the U.S. retaining its AAA status from Fitch,” the firm said. Failure to avoid the fiscal cliff — a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts that will come into effect on Jan. 1 unless politicians reach a budget deal — and raise the country’s debt ceiling in a timely manner would likely result in a downgrade in 2013, said Fitch, which has a negative outlook on the U.S. credit rating. Rival firm Standard & Poor’s last year stripped the U.S. of its AAA rating on debt worries.
Wait, they will downgrade the debt unless we refuse to raise more money in taxes (the money out of which the debt is paid) and refuse to cut spending? Where does that come from? I understand the need to raise the debt ceiling. The threat of not doing that was what caused the original downgrade. But the fiscal cliff is basically an austerity measure (though not all that austere) which ratings agencies usually love. What do they have to complain about? Have the ratings agencies gone all Keynesian on us?
The way I look at the U.S. must avoid going further into debt as a percentage of its GDP. Thus, if we grow three percent next year and we have two percent inflation and our debt is around 16 trillion, we could “afford” to have a deficit around $800 billion since that does not raise the ratio. Obviously, the lower we could make the deficit without causing a recession the better.
Perhaps Fitch is thinking similarly and deciding that attempting too much deficit reduction in one year would just cause a recession and would raise and not lower the deficit?
Tough times for NYC & NJ. The situation reminds me of the vulnerability I felt when the Fall 2007 SD fires forced hundreds of thousands of us to evacuate.
Sandy-battered NYC, NJ prepare for new storm
COLLEEN LONG, Associated Press, TOM HAYS, Associated Press
Updated 4:23 a.m., Wednesday, November 7, 2012
NEW YORK (AP) — Residents of New York and New Jersey who were flooded out by Superstorm Sandy waited with dread Wednesday and heard warnings to evacuate for the second time in two weeks as another, weaker storm spun toward them and threatened to inundate their homes again or simply leave them shivering in the dark for even longer.
In New York, Mayor Michael Bloomberg ordered police to use their patrol car loudspeakers to warn vulnerable residents about evacuating, one of a number of measures that the beleaguered city was taking even as weather experts said Wednesday’s nor’easter could be weaker than expected.
“Even though it’s not anywhere near as strong as Sandy — nor strong enough, in normal times, for us to evacuate anybody — out of precaution and because of the changing physical circumstances, we are going to go to some small areas and ask those people to go to higher ground,” Bloomberg said Tuesday.
…
I am Jack’s raging bile duct. Not only did Romney lose the Presidential Election, but Warren won the MA Senate seat from Brown, helping give Democrats a majority in the US Senate. Not as important, but still annoying, the various House races in MA all went to the Democrats, including another Kennedy.
As someone said yesterday, maybe this will serve as a wake-up call to the Republican party to stop with extreme right crap. If Republicans want to get re-elected on a national level, they need to start representing a larger portion of the populace than NeoCons and Religious Fundies…
Oh well, another 4 years of more and higher taxes to look forward to…
More and higher taxes I might be able to stand if O would push his social policies harder. Slow down the MIC spending and stop the war on our own people (known as The Drug War). Legalize gay marriage across the country. Get rid of the “nanny state” and let people live their lives without fear of government coming down on them for their personal choices.
The Dems are supposed to be fiscally liberal (which O has been) AND socially liberal (which O has no been). For me, this is the worst of both worlds, I’m a fiscal conservative and social lib. I just hope he’ll spend this term doing more things to restore freedoms to this country and less time trying to tax me to death.
I would very much like to know what mechanism you think the president has to recognize gay marriage across the country. He can try to get rid of DOMA, though it wouldn’t likely happen with this Congress. But force Wyoming to recognize gay marriage? With what Supreme Court?
Polly make it a JOBS program for DJs’…and all sorts of people in the Wedding business, gay people have money and they spend it freely on parties…
The Bubbas and Ellie Maes in the red states don’t give a rat’s tail about your wedding business.
The states are the ones that issue marriage licenses. It makes not the slightest bit of difference whether it helps you get a job or not. The president has no power to force a state to grant a marriage license to a same sex couple.
You do understand that dj, right? That just because there is a good argument to do something (your jobs program not being one, people can hire a dj for a commitment ceremony with no legal standing just as easily as they can for a legal marriage) doesn’t mean that the president can just do it?
I’ve quite a few commitment ceremonies….we’ll someone has to do it ….i could count on one hand the amount of gay mobile dj’s i’ve met.
I’m talking about selling the DOMA as a republican jobs killer.
DOMA doesn’t prevent states from making gay marriage legal - see MA, VT, MD, ME, etc.
And even if you could convince them that getting a few extra gigs for djs was a jobs program, too many of them confuse a state allowing civil marriage with the state saying gay sex is OK. The state doesn’t have to give consenting adults permission to have sex (see Lawrence vs TX), but that is what they are thinking.
Thanks Polly…just looking for a palatable way to convince middle America it’s ok .. Jobs for the wedding industry seems logical.
to stop with extreme right crap
They won’t. After another four years of hearing how The One is a muslim, Kenyan, communist, homosexual, gun-grabber, one-worlder, the “Base” will move so far into caveman politics that no socially moderate, fiscal conservative can win a primary. You’ll see.
And yes, the squad will be loading up on more gunz and ammo, not because The One is going to take them away, but because of simple supply and demand, they’re getting too damn expensive!
As someone said yesterday, maybe this will serve as a wake-up call to the Republican party to stop with extreme right crap.
What’s interesting to watch is that very demographic within the party. Within my circle, they just moved even farther right…and still insist theirs is the proper course. Good luck with that strategy. Perhaps the Tea faction of the right will splinter off into its own party, but the tenor of the country appears to be moving in a different direction. That, and time, will serve to kill off that splinter demographic. Romney would have won had he not sought their acceptance.
“Romney would have won had he not sought their acceptance.”
But he wouldn’t have won the primary battle without them and that is the crux of the problem in the GOP.
True. Some of the pundits made the further point that he would’ve been best served to shift hard center soon after the primaries. Who knows?
“If Republicans want to get re-elected on a national level, they need to start representing a larger portion of the populace than NeoCons and Religious Fundies…”
Says the religous fundie. Warped man. Just warped.
It looks like the fundies stayed home. And it wasn’t the extreme right that wanted Romney.
It looks like the fundies stayed home.
Did they? The few that I know were working like crazy for Romney by the end. I think the problem was more in the middle…
Yeah. Evang’es were the most active as far as I can tell. A clueless bunch they are.
I had lunch yesterday with what I’d call a sensible fundie I know. He’s always voted R but voted for Obama. Told me he would months ago and confirmed it yesterday. I say sensible because he’s a true advocate for the poor and he finally accepted that we didn’t just become a socialist nation after January, 2009.
Long story short, his opinion is that if we’re giving stuff away it should go to the least among us, not those at the other end of the spectrum.
“I say sensible because he’s a true advocate for the poor”
He’s the real, genuine thing. The rest are counterfeits and most of them don’t even know it.
Oh, and as we parted he admitted that a wee part of it was because of Romney being Mormon.
“…sensible fundie…”
Is he an oxyMormon?
NIce.
Everything but gold is dropping like a rock today.
What would make gold go up the day after the election? Did Mr Market catch a whiff of incipient inflation?
No post-election lull: Street in mood to sell risk assets
• Where to put your money now that Obama has won
• What Obama’s re-election means for investors
• What the election means for stocks, bonds, gold
As President Barack Obama wins a second term. Investors promptly pivot focus to U.S. budget issues.
“Everything but gold is dropping like a rock today.”
Don’t know about that. Am pretty happy with the SKF I held for 19.5 hours.
Looks like I could have held out a little longer, but am happy with my return and the ultrashorts make me nervous.
Bernanke gets 5 more years. Obama’s track record is one of ignoring a balanced approach to deficit reduction, and not being able to work with the House Republicans (I hope that he’ll change with no election looming).
The market is probably pricing in at least two more years of big deficits before anything significant is fixed on the fiscal side (maybe longer).
“ignoring a balanced approach to deficit reduction”
Deficit reduction that calls for decreased spending and increased taxes is unbalanced? What do you see as balanced?
Simpson Bowles was crafted by Republicans and Democrats and included cutting costs and increased taxes. It was proposed in December of 2010. The plan was balanced.
It was ignored by Obama.
We still haven’t heard what about that plan he likes, and what about that plan he doesn’t like.
During the election, the only thing he talked about was raising taxes on the wealthy.
People were critical of Romney for being light on details on his tax reform plan (although it was in the direction of Simpson Bowles).
What are the details of Obama’s plan to reduce spending?
Got it.
I think there was not a lot of support in Congress for Simpson-Bowles. Perhaps Obama simply thought it was not doable.
Maybe a new Congress can make some progress with it, especially with the extra incentive of a fiscal cliff. Interestingly, I have seen some speculation that with a smaller Republican majority in the House, the Tea Party Republicans have gained strength.
Obama did not even try to drum up support for the plan.
Obama did not lead on the issue (on his own fiscal commission, no less).
Period.
“Obama did not even try to drum up support for the plan.”
Publicly. Simpson-Bowles was released in December 2010, right after the election. If he was hearing no support from Democrats he may have figured it was dead, expecting no support from Republicans.
The dollar is up today. Hardly a sign of looming inflation. And gold is now down slightly along with everything else. If the dollar is up and all other assets are down I’d say the market is predicting deflation. At least today it is…
Other things equal, a trip over the fiscal cliff would be deflationary.
Well, the presidential election outcome is no surprise - congrats to all the Obamney supporters!
Well done to our brethren in Colorado and Washington for their legalization of marijuana.
Perhaps most disheartening is the outcome here in California:
* State dems seize supermajority in state legislature, “a surprise outcome that gives the party the ability to unilaterally raise taxes and leaves Republicans essentially irrelevant in Sacramento.”
* Proposition 30, which increases sales and income tax to fund schools (i.e. administrative sinecures and government union pensions), passed handily.
San Diego voters said “No” to real estate developer Doug Manchester’s candidate for mayor.
Unofficial Election Results Show Filner Ahead of DeMaio in Mayoral Race
Story Published: Nov 6, 2012 at 11:30 PM PST
Story Updated: Nov 7, 2012 at 4:22 AM PST
SAN DIEGO (CNS) - Rep. Bob Filner, D-San Diego, outlasted Councilman Carl DeMaio to claim the San Diego mayor’s office, according to unofficial results released early Wednesday.
With all precincts reporting, Filner had 51.5 percent of the vote, compared to 48.5 for DeMaio, with about 10,000 votes separating the two candidates out of more than 320,000 cast.
“People in this city have realized that I am on their side and this city has got to change,” Filner told supporters Tuesday night while votes were still being tallied. “This city has changed demographically, it has changed business-wise, it has changed — the kind of people and the way they look at the world.”
The city’s political structure has not kept up, the congressman said.
DeMaio based his campaign on continuing economic changes started under termed-out Mayor Jerry Sanders, who gave the councilman his backing. Filner said he would oversee a change of political power from what he called “downtown special interests” to the neighborhoods.
…
“the ability to unilaterally raise taxes and leaves Republicans essentially irrelevant in Sacramento.”
You make it sound like only Republicans are wealthy. Let’s start debunking this myth and post the net worth of all politicians state and fed by party affiliation.
We’re just going to see more cronyism and soon the whole state will be like Chicago politically or given enough time we’ll be like Mexico.
No need to post.
It’s already available with a simple Google search.
What we NEED is more people who know how use Google and less who know how to use Facecrook.
Did Mr Market decide to take a preemptive jump off the fiscal cliff?
DJIA = 13K or bust!
Bulletin Dow industrials briefly slip below 13,000 for first time since Sept. 4
I think at that is exactly what is happening. It is reacting to the re-election of President Obama AND the Republican House.
But even if it means going back into recession, I say bring it on.
I’m thinking the fiscal cliff scenario may play out worse under Obama than it would have under Romney, due to the lack of any reason for a Republican Congress to cooperate with Obama.
Thoughts?
Why one budget guru says Washington will go over fiscal cliff
November 7, 2012, 11:26 AM
Long-time Washington budget guru Stan Collender thought before the election that Washington would go over the fiscal cliff and he’s even more convinced the morning after.
“I am looking at the election results as bad for a budget deal. The two parties have moved further away from each other than ever before,” Collender, managing director at Qorvis Communications and a former Democratic budget aide, said in an interview.
House Republicans will see themselves as the “last bastion” of small government, he said. At the same time, new Democrats in the Senate give the majority a more liberal bent.
“I am one of those few who thinks they are going to go over the cliff and not kick it down the road and delay it,” he said.
One factor is that Speaker of the House John Boehner will have to appeal to the right-wing of his party in order to win re-election to his post when the new Congress meets in January, Collender said. This means no compromises during the lame duck session.
In his acceptance speech last night after winning re-election, Boehner said President Barack Obama has no mandate to raise taxes. This is “red meat to the piranhas in the tea party,” Collender said. Obama wants to raise taxes on the wealthy as part of a budget deal.
Given the likely smaller majority that Republicans will enjoy next year, the remaining tea-party Republicans “are in a better position to muck things up,” he said.
– Greg Robb
Last week I heard a commentator say that if Romney won, Congress would likely pass an extension of all the tax and spending provisions into spring of 2013 to let the new president get settled and offer his own solution. He thought that the president would probably sign it. With no change in the White House and little change in the Congress, there is no reason for that. If they priced in not having to think about the cliff until at least April, then this is the reaction to having to deal with it in the few weeks left before they go on recess. Sounds likely enough to me.
Why the markets are this shaken when this result was reasonably well expected, I can’t begin to fathom.
“Why the markets are this shaken when this result was reasonably well expected, I can’t begin to fathom.”
Suppose the markets were artificially goosed through election day, at which point the goosing ended? Wouldn’t that pretty well explain matters today?
Do you mean worse for the economy in the year 2013, or worse for the economy in the year 2031?
Again, bring it on.
I think a lot of people are selling stocks this year because they think tax rates will be going up next year.
20% cap gains? Dividends taxes like earned income? Oh the humanity! The rich won’t be able to buy another made in China yacht!
Not if the selling pushes the value of what they are selling down by 5%.
If the market falls by 5% due to this hypothetical selling pressure (2%+ today), the wealthy are better served to wait past the year end.
They didn’t get rich by being stupid, or by being unable to do math.
Some people do irrational things to avoid paying taxes when another course of action would get them more money after taxes. Not the really rich. They have employees to deal with that sort of thing. But a certain percentage of the swath in the middle have been known to prefer to stick it to the man than act in their own best interests.
An expensive hobby.
“Not the really rich. They have employees to deal with that sort of thing.”
Yes, that dirty, dirty money, can’t touch their white gloved hands.
Are you serious?
The wealthy people (mainly worth tens of millions, but a couple who are worth hundreds of millions) that I know are incredibly involved in the day-to-day affairs that involve their own money. Perhaps that’s because they weren’t born wealthy. In fact, I’ve spoken to such people about this very thing (selling before the end of 2012)–the conclusion they came to was that for stocks they wanted to keep long-term, it didn’t make sense to sell. However, for any positions that they didn’t want to keep long-term (meaning 5+ years), selling now actually makes sense.
The wealthy that you are referring must be the non-working heirs/heiresses.
That’s a good explanation for why Mr Market sold off today. If correct, expect more of this through year-end 2012 (and the last good chance to dump stocks may already be history…).
You don’t think the selloff was because people thought Obama was bad for business?
You don’t think the selloff was because people thought Obama was bad for business?
Is bad for Goldman Sachs the same as “bad for business”?
From the charleston SC thug blog…
Goodbye America
Prior to yesterday we were well on our way to becoming just like one of those socialist European countries. You know, the ones who are all bankrupt now as a result of fostering dependence on government over personal responsibility. Last night we found out the majority of citizens in the United States want to get their “free” food, “free” living expenses and “free” health care from the government. Demographics have indeed changed in this country.
We watched the returns and we spent the time with pen and paper. Each of us figured out just how much the last four years have cost us. When you factor in the rising cost of food, gas, electricity and health insurance, necessities for those who believe in personal responsibility, we have each lost over $10,000 a year. Factor in the added cost of doing business and the increased taxes stolen from us to cover all the “free” stuff the government is giving away, and the total approaches $12,000 - $15,000.
And the idiots in Berkeley and Dorchester counties voted to increase their own taxes on top of everything else. Must be a lot of people from Ohio living in those two counties.
Immediately after the re-election of Barack Obama was announced the dollar dropped in value yet again. And the government continues to print money which is not backed up by anything other than the “word” of an administration who has put us 16 trillion in debt. For those of you who don’t keep up with monetary policy, that means the cost of everything you buy will go up. With the shut-down of the oil and natural gas industry and the attack on the coal industry you will soon see your utility bills “necessarily skyrocket”, in the words of your President. Everything you buy that is transported by any fuel powered vehicle will also increase. That means necessities like food and medicine will increase in price even more.
Based on this we all made a few decisions last night. We will, of course, continue to look out for our own families first. The two business expansions we were planning have been scrapped. We cannot, in good conscience, work our asses off to support a class of people whose idea of being successful is living off the proceeds of the labor of others. In addition to that, we will no longer contribute our usual donations of cash or our time to charity. If the citizens of this country want the government to be their provider, we won’t ignore their wishes. Homeless? Call the government. Hungry? Call the government. Natural disaster? Depend on the government. And so it goes.
Sure, we didn’t have the riots many expected as a result of an Obama loss. Unfortunately, we foresee riots in the not to distant future like those you see in Greece and Spain. Watch what happens when the government can no longer take enough money from the working class, and the constant printing of unsecured currency cheapens the value of the dollar to almost zero. The government will no longer have the wherewithal to put money on those EBT cards or send out to the checks to landlords to pay for subsidized housing.
Goodbye America. It was nice knowing you.
Last night we found out the majority of citizens in the United States want to get their “free” food, “free” living expenses and “free” health care from the government.
Actually, we found out that the majority of Americans are tired of getting screwed by Corporate America and refused to elect it’s poster boy.
Yep.
South Carolina: too small for a republic and too large for an insane asylum.
Just google it….its a shame what happened to a really nice city over the years and what we are likely to face in the future…and yes thugs posting from jail on fb …why is no one calling out Zuckerberg ?
charleston SC thug blog
“For whatever reason those people have for the most part shut down their spending over the last 3 1/2 years and thus shut down the decent living that myself, my guys and the people we work with and our ability to make a decent living.”
I used to work for such people myself, as a free-lance musician. I can’t say whether opportunity has dried up, or I simply haven’t been aggressive enough to pursue it like I used to, but the low-hanging fruit in that area is definitely gone.
“Trillions that were printed borrowed and spent on windmills, solar pannels, cash for clunkers, cash for caulkers, endless foreclosure prevention programs (to cushion the 7 trillion in lost equity for the banks or whoever owned that sh#t) the expansion of social security disability, SNAP etc. have born no fruit for people like myself who fight like hell to stay off of the government doll.”
One can argue whether these programs provided anything useful. But to some extent, I believe they were intended to prevent the labor market situation from getting as bad as it did during the 1930s. But I am missing the zero-sum game you seem to assume between the stimulus packages and spending by wealthy folks.
“For whatever reason those people have for the most part shut down their spending over the last 3 1/2 years and thus shut down the decent living that myself.”
??So let me get this straight, they continued spending through the collapse of 2008?? My guess is they aren’t spending because the reality of a collapsing middle class is starting to bite many that thought themselves elites. I’m not sure how shifting the tax burden to the middle class and increasing their cost of living by slashing services would have helped.
“Trillions that were printed borrowed and spent on windmills, solar pannels, cash for clunkers, cash for caulkers, endless foreclosure prevention programs (to cushion the 7 trillion in lost equity for the banks or whoever owned that sh#t) the expansion of social security disability, SNAP etc. have born no fruit for people like myself who fight like hell to stay off of the government doll”
I think you underestimate how much you benefited from these programs. Imagine if GM had collapsed and all the suppliers went bk, and ford couldn’t make cars because the suppliers were bk, and there were hordes of unemployed hungry people that stood between you and your job everyday. Conservation and alternative energy keep the price of conventional fuel down as well. The US is driving more but using less gas. If we were all driving gas guzzlers the price of gas would be much higher.
What exactly is it that you do?
What’s eating JPMorgan and BoA today?
Maybe Wall Street backed the wrong candidate?
Street gets slammed
Dow’s below 13K as fiscal-cliff fear spikes; oil’s off 4%
• Where to put your money now that Obama has won
• What Obama’s re-election means for investors
• What the election means for stocks, bonds, gold
As President Barack Obama wins a second term, investors promptly pivot focus to U.S. budget issues and Europe’s economic sentiment. Dow is down triple digits with B. of A., J.P. Morgan under pressure.
Mortgage Investors Face More ‘Meddling’ With Obama, Annaly Says
By Jody Shenn - Nov 6, 2012 10:23 AM PT
Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY), the largest real-estate investment trust that buys mortgage debt, said a re-election of President Barack Obama may lead to more aggressive housing policies, including new efforts to spur refinancing among borrowers with government-backed loans.
“The way I see it is if Obama wins, then we potentially see more policy meddling,” Wellington Denahan-Norris, chief executive officer of the New York-based firm with $141.6 billion of assets as of Sept. 30, said today on a conference call.
Today’s election carries a series of implications for investors in the $5.2 trillion market for government-backed mortgage securities. Those include a potential new overseer for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that could further expand Obama’s refinancing push this year and a more “hawkish” head of the Federal Reserve, which in September under Chairman Ben S. Bernanke started acquiring $40 billion of the bonds a month to boost the economy, according to Bank of America Corp. (BAC) analysts.
Debt yields are also at stake with a so-called fiscal cliff of spending cuts and tax increases more likely to be averted if Republican challenger Mitt Romney wins, creating less of a flight to the relative safety of benchmark Treasuries, the analysts led by Chris Flanagan wrote in a Nov. 2 report. Romney may also favor less aggressive Fed officials, they said.
…
One person’s “meddling” is another’s “stimulus”.
POLITICS
Updated November 7, 2012, 11:13 a.m. ET
Economy’s Fate a Central Concern of Voters
President Won Over Hispanics, African Americans, Women and Young, Exit-Polls Showed
By NEIL KING JR., CAROL E. LEE and COLLEEN MCCAIN NELSON
President Barack Obama secured a second term Tuesday by assembling a set of discrete voting blocs into an electoral majority, nurturing support among Hispanics and African Americans, women and young people, while holding his own among working-class voters in the pivotal state of Ohio.
From the outset, the Obama team knew it couldn’t count on the euphoric wave that propelled the president to victory four years earlier. Winning in 2012 would depend, as his top aides put it, on a state-by-state “blocking and tackling” effort to preserve what they could of his 2008 coalition.
With the economy still feeble and unemployment high, Mr. Obama faced eroding support from independents and many of the suburban, middle-class voters who had backed him four years earlier.
So, the goal was to expand his base wherever possible, particularly among minority groups, while fighting to preserve his margins among women.
On that, he succeeded.
The share of ballots cast by young voters grew from 2008, while Mr. Obama preserved much of his support among women and expanded his base among Hispanics and Asians, according to exit polls of voters.
He won despite a strong sense of unease among voters over the economy and unemployment. More than half of voters said the country was “seriously off on the wrong track,” while a third said their family’s finances were worse than four years ago.
Voters headed to the polls Tuesday in a presidential contest defined by its intensity and razor-thin margins.
And yet, even against that backdrop, Mitt Romney was unable to convince voters that he was the man to fix what ails the country, surveys of voters at polling places showed.
Voters gave Mr. Romney little advantage on a core plank of his bid for the White House—which candidate would be better to fix the economy—while giving Mr. Obama high marks for having a better feel for the middle class and for dealing with Medicare.
More than half of voters blamed President George W. Bush for the country’s continuing economic troubles, while four in 10 said it was Mr. Obama’s fault.
…
Apparently the Mexican media doesn’t believe that Obama will be friendly to illegals.
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/wcarton12128.html
If the beefing up of the fortifications at the Nogales, AZ border crossing is any indication, I think the Mexican media is right.
That’s impossible! We all know that Obama did nothing to increase border security!
Well, except for…
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Administration-Officials-Announce-US-Mexico-Border-Security-Policy-A-Comprehensive-Response-and-Commitment
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/may/10/barack-obama/obama-says-border-patrol-has-doubled-number-agents/
The cartoon above insinuates that contrary to promises that there won’t be immigration reform (which down there means open borders)
I was heartened by Obama, in his acceptance speech, mentioning debt as a major issue in this country. While debt might look good on the indicator dashboards of central bankers, it degrades the quality of life of the common man and the prospects for his children.
What has always amazed me is that economists always seem to ignore the fact that individuals have to pay debt back. They clap their hands excitedly at the increase in spending that debt generates, but ignore the other side of the equation where it must be paid back. Individuals are not central banks who can print currency (at least not with my stupid laser printer
)
“OBAMA: We want our children to live in an America that isn’t burdened by debt, that isn’t weakened by inequality, that isn’t threatened by the destructive power of a warming planet.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/president-obamas-acceptance-speech-full-transcript/2012/11/07/ae133e44-28a5-11e2-96b6-8e6a7524553f_story_1.html
Obama really hit it hard in his acceptance speech to the DNC in September:
“And by 2008, we had seen nearly
a decade in which families struggled with costs that kept
rising, but paychecks that didn’t; folks racking up more and
more debt just to make the mortgage or pay tuition; put gas in
the car or food on the table.
And when the house of cards collapsed in the Great
Recession, millions of innocent Americans lost their jobs, their
homes, their life savings, a tragedy from which we are still
fighting to recover.”
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09/06/transcript-obama-speech-at-dnc/
I’m especially gratified that Elizabeth Warren made it into the Senate. With the vast majority of Wall Street spending arrayed against both Obama and Warren, per OpenSecrets.org, hopefully they will move to remove government guarantees for Wall Streets casino operations, and move to separate consumer deposits from those gambling operations.
http://www.opensecrets.org/
If Warren can maintain her integrity and pull off a piece of major legislation, she’ll have a shot at the 2016 Presidential nomination. I think Hillary is burned out on the campaigning thing forever.
If Warren can maintain her integrity and pull off a piece of major legislation, she’ll have a shot at the 2016 Presidential nomination.
President Warren. O what a Happy day that would be.
If Warren can maintain her integrity and pull off a piece of major legislation, she’ll have a shot at the 2016 Presidential nomination. I think Hillary is burned out on the campaigning thing forever.
I hadn’t even thought about Warren in 2016 but that does make sense…I’d even consider voting for her if she’ll leave guns alone. I think that while lots of people like Hillary a lot, she probably has missed her window of opportunity. I’m not seeing Biden working out well for anybody…
The Great Orange Liberal Website has been pushing the Warren for Pres meme for a while now. But IMO Warren is not the political rocket that Obama was. She needs more street cred, like a partial Senate term and a VP slot. That’s 8-10 years, and she’s already 63.
But IMO Warren is not the political rocket that Obama was.
No, but those don’t come along often. And opinions vary on their effectiveness.
Warren is a specialist. Making waves in the Senate by asking very uncomfortable questions and proposing legislation to fill in the holes she has been researching all these years is the best use of her many talents. I’m not sure POTUS would be that good a fit.
Polly,
What I don’t quite understand is why they ran her in Mass (where Scott Brown was far more left leaning than most R’s in the Senate) and not in a state where she could have displaced a right winger. With the party money thrown behind her, she could have defeated almost any marginal candidate. How hard would it have been to establish residency in Pennsyltucky? Something seems strategically askew here.
Any thoughts?
“And by 2008, we had seen nearly a decade in which families struggled with costs that kept rising, but paychecks that didn’t; folks racking up more and more debt just to make the mortgage or pay tuition; put gas in the car or food on the table. And when the house of cards collapsed in the Great Recession, millions of innocent Americans lost their jobs, their
homes, their life savings, a tragedy from which we are still fighting to recover.”
Seems like he is catching on. The next lesson — it was more than a decade. The years from 2000 to 2008 was merely the period when it spread from the bottom 80 percent to the yuppies like himself.
A message from Beyonce to 57,401,992 Americans.
“TAKE THAT MITCHES.”
Beyonce Reacts To President Obama’s Re-Election (PHOTO)
Posted: 11/07/2012 10:24 am EST Updated
After learning the results of the election, the 31-year-old singer posted another photo to her Tumblr. On lined paper, she simply wrote:
“TAKE THAT MITCHES.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/07/beyonce-reacts-to-president-obama-re-election_n_2088027.html -
Everything JayZ touches turn to ghetto…..i was waiting to see how long it took beyonce to go gansta…
She looked pretty trashy the last jayz concert at the barclays center
2 questions, please answer honestly.
Is anyone suprised that there are no riots after Obama`s win?
If Romney had won, does anyone think there would have been riots?
“Is anyone suprised that there are no riots after Obama`s win?”
No
“If Romney had won, does anyone think there would have been riots?”
Honestly, no. Conspiracy talk about voting machines, yes.
Threats to Riot by Obama Supporters Reach Crescendo
November 5, 2012
Indeed, a rough estimation of tweets suggests that about two dozen threats to riot if Obama loses are being published on Twitter every hour.
The tweets below were all sent out within the same one hour time period this morning.
http://www.infowars.com/threats-to-riot-by-obama-supporters-reach-crescendo/ - 87k - Cached -
“Indeed, a rough estimation of tweets suggests that about two dozen threats to riot if Obama loses are being published on Twitter every hour.”
In this digital age, two dozen threats is a small number.
1) Unsurprised that there are no riots after Obama’s win. I don’t recall riots last time. I think what a black person becoming president did for the black community is to make them not feel dispossessed. The history of the black community in this country has been an uphill struggle. But suddenly, “they own it.” Meaning that with a black person as the leader of the country and free world, it is now their society and country. Can’t get around it. As a result, the anti-social behavior declined. In Baltimore and DC, DC in particular, murder rates inexplicably dropped. They’re still farcically high and very common. But measurably less than before. I think due to the “You own it” phenomenon.
2) I would not have been surprised had there been riots in “failed state” cities like Detroit and the like. In areas with well-funded, militarized police forces, like DC and Baltimore, there would have been fast police responses and riots would have probably been quelled in the “disturbance” stage. But - with the difficult economic circumstances and the stinging defeat of the first black president, yes, I would have anticipated disturbances in places like Baltimore and riots in the “failed state” cities like Detroit.
Albuquerquedan is a sad, old, demographically-doomed white man.
That’s what I learned from reading his incomprehensible BS over the past few weeks. And from scanning this thread, he was back at it today. I’d be so embarassed if I were him.
Yes, you are such a prophet like your name suggests. Funny though even under Reagan, the Republicans did not control the House but you think they are doomed now with control of the House and more than enough Senators to block legislation. No. I just don’t think that a president getting reelected is such a remarkable feat especially when it is less than he received the first time around.
“Albuquerquedan is a sad, old, demographically-doomed white man.”
Feeling frisky on the keyboard joe?
I wonder if you would say that to Albuquerquedan`s face? Probably not and if you did I would be willing to bet Albuquerquedan would Mitch slap you.
I would say it to his face, if it wasn’t rude (being that he’s an old man). The reason it’s offensive is because it’s true.
Also, if he wanted to support Mittens, fine, but the way he did so was incredibly sad. I honestly feel a bit embarassed on his behalf.
“I would say it to his face, if it wasn’t rude”
Could you explain to me how you look someone in the eye and say you are… “a sad, old, demographically-doomed white man” and… “That’s what I learned from reading his incomprehensible BS over the past few weeks.” and…”I’d be so embarassed if I were him.” without being rude?
As far as…”I would say it to his face, if it wasn’t rude (being that he’s an old man).”
“(being that he’s an old man).”? That says a lot about you.
By the way, I`m an old man (53) 6 ft.4 in. still work out with my York Olympic weights that I bought in 1978 and still bench press 275 lbs. (granted way off what I used to do) hit the everlast bag and jump rope 3 times a week.
You just never know do ya joe.
I was at a conference for two days… good to be back.
What have I missed?
Nothing whatever. We are trying to get back to housing after spending way too much time discussing meaningless political banter…
Fannie’s 3rd quarter Credit supplement came out:
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/ir/pdf/quarterly-annual-results/2012/q32012_credit_summary.pdf
“Seriously Delinquent” for CA borrowers is now under 2%. US Average is 3.4%, FL is 10.5%, NV is 7%, AZ is 2.35% (see page 8).
Are you kokk wackers done with this election crap yet?
CA and FL top the list in foreclosures in September
http://www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter/uiservices/heatmap.aspx
It would be nice if some of those foreclosures would return to the “market.”
In due time, I’m sure…
Are you going to buy the dip ahead of tomorrow’s dead cat bounce?
Asian shares tumble as U.S. fiscal cliff looms
By Chikako Mogi
TOKYO | Thu Nov 8, 2012 12:35am EST
(Reuters) - Asian shares extended losses on Thursday as investors worried about a looming budget crisis in the United States, underpinning the safe-haven dollar and yen as well as U.S. Treasuries on safety bids.
U.S. stock futures were up 0.4 percent, however, pointing to a recovery when Wall Street opens after all major U.S. stock indexes slumped over 2 percent overnight.
European shares were also seen rebounding from the previous day’s sharp losses, with financial spreadbetters expecting London’s FTSE 100, Paris’s CAC-40 and Frankfurt’s DAX to open as much as 0.6 percent higher.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slid 1.2 percent, retreating from a near eight-month high on Wednesday, and looked set for its biggest one-day percentage drop in seven weeks.
South Korean shares and Hong Kong shares .HSI led the declines while Australian shares fell 0.7 percent, of lows after local October employment figures topped forecast.
Japan’s Nikkei average fell 1.7 percent to a three-week low.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at 1.68 percent in Asia, after ending down 11 basis points at 1.6246 percent for its biggest single-day drop since May 30 on Wednesday when stock markets tumbled. Japanese government bonds also rallied, pushing 10-year yields down to a seven-month low of 0.750 percent.
“Uncertainty over the fiscal cliff is likely to support bonds,” said Shinichiro Kadota, non-yen fixed income analyst at Barclays in Tokyo.
U.S. politicians are facing a “fiscal cliff” of nearly $600 billion worth of spending cuts and tax increases set for early 2013 unless they reach a compromise soon to cut the deficit. There is also the issue of a debt ceiling, which needs to be raised to avoid a government shutdown.
If Washington does not reach a deal by year-end, investors fear the U.S. economy could plunge back into recession and possibly take the global economy along with it.
“The general trend of weaker equities, higher bond prices and a weaker dollar will likely continue,” said Kazuto Uchida, an executive officer and general manager of the global markets division at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
“A key gauge to risk appetite is how far U.S. equities will decline and whether U.S. 10-year yields will drop to 1.5 percent, as some had predicted,” he said.
…
This sounds horrible.
Bloomberg News
Shore Towns Evacuate as Snow Falls in Areas Hit by Sandy
By Henry Goldman, Terrence Dopp and Amanda J. Crawford on November 08, 2012
Shore towns in New York and New Jersey ordered evacuations ahead of a nor’easter as thousands of blacked-out residents braced for the cold while snow fell over a region still recovering from Hurricane Sandy’s devastation.
Residents in communities from Toms River to Highlands, New Jersey, were told to leave threatened parts, according to website postings yesterday. On New York’s Long Island, Nassau County Executive Edward Mangano ordered evacuations from flood or storm-surge zones. Islip officials directed people to leave Fire Island and waterfront neighborhoods. Airlines serving the metropolitan area canceled at least 1,700 flights.
Winds gusted to 60 miles (97 kilometers) an hour, driving rain, sleet and snow across the region. The nor’easter may bring a storm surge of as much as 4 feet (1.2 meters) to the New Jersey and Long Island shores, said Lauren Nash, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Upton, New York. As much as 9 inches of snow was forecast in New York’s northernmost suburbs.
“You’ve got to just look at this snow and say, ‘You’ve got to be kidding me,’” said Allison Robicelli, 31, who just reopened a wholesale bakery in Brooklyn’s Sunset Park that she and her husband, Matt, operate. They lost a week of sales and perishable inventory to Sandy’s floodwaters and blackouts, only to face a new battering from the arriving nor’easter.
…
Some good news to report from the State of Arizona:
Sheriff Joe was re-elected - The sworn enemy of the progressives in this state.
Prop 204 was defeated - That would have made the 1% temporary education sales tax permanent. Now we go back to just under 8% which is still way too high.
I guess Dick Gephardt missed the memo about the Plunge Protection Team’s activities?
Nov. 7, 2012, 1:19 p.m. EST · CORRECTED
Gephardt warns of ‘bad days’ for markets
By Ronald D. Orol, MarketWatch
An earlier version of this story incorrectly identified the number of lawmakers in the House and Senate. The story has been corrected.
Former Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt in 2007.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — There is some risk that the public could hear some “histrionics” from Democrats and Republicans playing to their bases as Congress works on spending cuts and tax reform, all of which could severely unsettle the markets, the former House majority leader said Wednesday.
“If it looks like that is happening you could have a couple really bad days on Wall Street,” Dick Gephardt said at an event hosted by National Journal magazine. “You could have the markets drop by 1,000 or 2,000 points.” (The event was titled “The Day After: The 2012 Election Debrief.”)
Already, stocks DJIA -2.36% are being hammered after President Barack Obama won re-election and Democrats increased their hold in the Senate while the House remained firmly in Republican hands. The Dow was down over 300 points Wednesday afternoon.
At issue are negotiations on Capitol Hill over the “fiscal cliff,” which refers to the substantial federal-spending cuts and tax increases for middle- and upper-income individuals scheduled to automatically go into effect at the beginning of 2013 unless Congress reaches a compromise. There are roughly $400 billion in tax increases and $200 billion in spending cuts waiting to hit the economy on Jan. 1, 2013 unless a deal is reached first.
Both Gephardt and Robert Bennett, a former Republican senator from Utah, said Congress would likely postpone making a long-term decision over spending cuts and tax increases.
“It will be a kick-the-can-down-the-road kind of resolution, [and] the question is how many things will be added to that train as it is moving through and what shape will they be,” said Bennett.
Gephardt said he is very skeptical Congress will reach any big deal. He argued that, even with Obama’s victory, nobody has a mandate and nobody has leverage because voting on the difficult issues facing Congress is “poison.”
He added that there was a risk that, in the next few weeks, the public could hear some Democrats saying they won’t agree to cut domestic programs while some Republicans insisting that the U.S. should go off the cliff, cut lots of programs and ”cut up the credit card.” All, this could unsettle the markets, he said.
Nevertheless, he said Congress could take two short-term approaches, one of which would be to suspend the substantial spending cuts and tax increases that would otherwise have been triggered by the fiscal cliff, for a short period of time, perhaps two or six months. Alternatively, Congress could reach a mini-deal, he said, which is much harder because some questions about spending cuts and revenue hikes must be answered.
However, he added that it will be really difficult to get lawmakers to work together in the short time after an election and Dec. 31.
“It is hard to get the effort you need from 535 people [members of the House and Senate] to come up with some big agreement,” Gephardt said. “People are either angry, elated or exhausted.”
…