April Home Sales ‘Plummet’ In Florida
The Florida realtors have the April numbers out. “Housing sales plummeted last month compared to the previous April, according to numbers today from the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“A total of 16,392 existing single-family homes sold statewide last month, a decrease of 31 percent from the 23,844 homes that changed hands during the previous April, according to FAR. Looking to Florida’s existing condominium market, sales of existing condos also decreased in April, with a total of 5,556 condos sold statewide compared to 8,775 in April 2005 for a 37 percent decline.”
“Among the state’s larger markets, the Orlando area reported 2,491 existing homes sold last month compared to 3,375 homes sold in April 2005 for a decrease of 26 percent.”
“The median price of an existing single-family home sold last month by a Realtor in Collier County was $503,500, down from March, when the median sales price was $505,800. The number of housing sales fell sharply last month compared to last year. The Realtor association said there were 274 single-family home sales, which is down 45 percent from last April.”
“In Lee County, sales of single-family homes dropped 28 percent year over year. Condo sales in Lee County dropped 59 percent.”
“South Florida’s housing rut continues. Palm Beach County’s April median of $386,500 is down nearly 2 percent from January, while Broward’s median of $360,600 fell nearly 3 percent. Miami-Dade County’s median price of $374,500 also fell slightly since the beginning of the year.”
“Meanwhile, home sales plummeted across South Florida in April compared to April 2005. Sales fell 43 percent in Palm Beach County, 37 percent in Broward and 31 percent in Miami-Dade. Sales of existing condominiums dropped 50 percent in Palm Beach County.”
“Broward’s condo sales fell 37 percent. Condo sales in Miami-Dade fell 25 percent.”
Here is the link with the area breakdown at the bottom. Note that statewide condo sales are down 37%.
‘Among the state’s larger markets, the Orlando area reported 2,491 existing homes sold last month compared to 3,375 homes sold in April 2005 for a decrease of 26 percent.’
The Florida realtors started splitting out condos and SFH’s in the last few months, so you have to watch the numbers.
From the Orlando site: ‘The inventory of single-family existing homes available for purchase in the Orlando area continued its upward march in April, reaching 16,036 in anticipation of the summer selling season. Last year, during the apex of the 2005 red-hot real estate market that saw many buyers unable to secure a home, only 2,947 homes were listed in the area.’
‘A breakdown of sales shows that of the 2,407 total homes changing hands in the Orlando area during April, 1,705 were single-family; 446 were condos; and 212 were townhomes/villas/duplexes.’
MA numbers just posted as well (these are the Realtor numbers vs. that report yesterday from the private organization). Keep in mind this is a PDF:
http://tinyurl.com/rrjkp
You’ll love this quote from the MA realtor group. They say it’s the worst April in five years, but that’s not so bad because (drum roll please) — it’s the 10th BUSIEST APRIL EVER. You can’t make this stuff up. I can just picture a big group of agents at a sales meeting chanting “We’re number 10! We’re number 10!”
The 3,268 homes sold last month is the lowest April
sales total in five years, dating back to April 2001 when 3,217 detached homes were sold. Historically, however, April
2006 ranks as the tenth busiest on record for home sales during the month of April, an indication that sales activity has
merely returned to more normal levels, following several years of strong buyer demand fueled by record low mortgage rates.
Are we not in the middle of the “hot” selling season? How can they have sold less houses in April than in March! March was gloomy. Maybe as I said, they are running out of IQ challenged people that believe that RE never ever decreases in value…..
Mike_in_FL, you should be rejoicing…. This means fewer Masshholes invading your state.
In Gainesville, the kiddie condo season is in full swing at UF. There is a huge condocon inventory hitting the market. Otherwise, the real estate market around here is “Flip this DWMH”. Nothing is selling, many homes have languished on the market for nearly a year.
‘ Jacksonville ranked seventh among the highest metropolitan foreclosure rates nationally in the first quarter..foreclosures in metro Jacksonville were up 39 percent in the first quarter over the same quarter a year earlier. During the quarter, Jacksonville households in foreclosure totaled 3,579. That equals one foreclosure for every 133 households.’
‘ Orlando ranked No. 21 among the highest metropolitan foreclosure rates nationally in the first quarter. During the quarter, Orlando households in foreclosure totaled 3,602. That equals one foreclosure for every 192 households.’
I won’t be happy until the headlines read’Real estate PRICES down 20% across the board nationally”
Then I will breathe a sigh of relief.
Hail to the working class!
indeed, although there is a clear problem with inventory and sales numbers, it doesn’t show in the price (yet). The very small decreases in some areas are nothing compared to the runups in previous years. In my opinion this is probably because there is still no change in the flood of ‘easy money’.
Up to now it looks very similar to the situation in previous years in Europe. And with more and more talk of a FED done tightening I’m doubting if there will be a real ‘crash’ in prices.
I sometimes feel that way for about 5 seconds but there are just too many indicators pointing to a huge crash. To me, the evidence is all around and mounting daily but this summer should end all doubts IMHO.
Right now I’m looking at the housing world through the eyes of someone living in Sacramento which is shaping up to be ground zero for at least California.
The decline actually seems to be happening much quicker than the late 90s.
Check out SoCalMtgGuy’s recent post - one point he makes is that approximately $1.75 trillion of mortgages will be adjusting over the next 18 months. I think I’ll wait to see how that works out before making any judgement on crash vs. no crash.
the FED and the big banks also know about this and I wouldn’t be surprised if they engineer something like a temporary rate anomaly to soften the impact.
You’re right. We still don’t see a crash in the prices. However, more and more, I’m leaning toward predicting a crash rather than a decade of flat prices (which means that inflation will erode the real value). But it will depend on the availability of exotic mortgages, and how much lending standards are tightened. I don’t think that rising interest rates alone can cause the bubble to pop.
I agree… no crash in prices yet.
In the US, there is a tradition of not selling at a loss, but instead walking away from an overpriced home.
I expect inventory to build, but I have a bet that by October 15th we’ll see prices down.
As to 20% nationally… that would be about right. But certain areas will see > 50%!!!
Hold on folks, this is going to be a nasty roller coaster.
Neil
Too early to say, nhz. I would say the steadily growing pileup of inventory points in the direction of lower prices, especially when you consider the foolish decisions which led people to buy on 100% financed option ARMs and to invest in properties with negative cash flow. When these folks (and there are many of them!) have to sell, we will learn whether prices will drop by a little or a lot.
yeah, I’m not making any conclusions.
Just surprised how sticky prices are, especially in Europe (inventory has been building for years now and prices just keep rising) but now in the US as well (inventory growing faster than in Europe, but only minor influence on prices).
Maybe Europe is waiting for the US to sneeze first? From where I sit in NoCal, using zillow, zip and other tools, you can see the train wreck coming. Houses listed for previous years purchase price (net loss with commish amd closing $). In daily conversations, people grimace when I mention that I am waiting for the burst…”please, no” they protest, barely managing a smile…
Florida in the 1920s the prices would not go down due to the I wont give it away mentality. But by 1925, real estate prices had become so exorbitant that buying land wasn’t affordable any longer. New investors failed to arrive and old investors started to sell. Panic arrived, as it always does, and the real estate market crashed. Prices kept moving downwards as heavily indebted investors tried to sell to avoid bankruptcy. In most cases, no buyers arrived, and the investors were bankrupt from the enormous mortgages.
To make matters even worse, a highly destructive hurricane ravaged South Florida in September 1926. The 125 mile an hour winds eventually turned Palm Beach County into swamp lands. After the storm, a huge tidal wave crashed upon the towns of Belle Glade and Moore Haven. Due to these horrible turn of events, over 13,000 homes were destroyed and 415 people died.
Two point:
In 2001, the statewide median sales price was $127,100, which is an increase of about 96.4 percent over the five-year period…
See the set up? Going back 5 years for comparisons. Forget anyone who bought 2002-2006, something like a quarter million homes.
Also: Given Florida’s share of the national market it is impossible for the national figures released this morning to be accurate unless every other place in the nation is either flat or up. Throw in what we know of AZ, CA and New England already and it is a mathematical impossibility the the national data is reliable.
Anyone have a chance to run the decreases in median from March 06 to April 06? Because if I am reading this right thats a 6% drop in median value in a month
example: Sarasota/Bradenton SFR’s
March 06 median 321,400 April 06 median 302,100
Appear it is plummeting everywhere and Builder are trying to push homes to people who hopefully doesn’t know any better.
This is the headline in the email I got today: (Got my email from Sacremento Bee)
Subject: Shhh…You’re Invited-Centex Home’s Private Sale
Shhh…Don’t tell anyone! You are the choosen one…..
The hardy folks at Ben’s blog aren’t allowed this lifetime opportunity of NegAM.
Ooops !
This more sound like ” Shhh…Don’t tell your parents! This is private between us and we will have fun together”
Shh….!!!
Hush the Bubble Talk….
Shhh…..
“A total of 16,392 existing single-family homes sold statewide last month, a decrease of 31 percent from the 23,844 homes that changed hands during the previous April, according to FAR. Looking to Florida’s existing condominium market, sales of existing condos also decreased in April, with a total of 5,556 condos sold statewide compared to 8,775 in April 2005 for a 37 percent decline.”
SFH and Condos have fallen by a similar number, about 1/3. I guess there isn’t too much of a distinction between the two. Flippers are pulling out of both.
Lets see home sales plummet YOY in Florida, Ca, Az, Mass, etc… meanwhile the NAR says YOY only down 5%??? I think I should have passed on all the extra math classes in college. Statistics was a waste of time!
A major factor in the RE unraveling has got to be the regional interconnectedness of the bubble. Except for anecdotal evidence such as on this blog, we do not know how widespread or vulnerable it is. Reverse Equity Nomadism will accentuate and accelerate the pop. How many homeowners in the first bubble areas HELOCed to buy 6 or whatever pre-construction condos, Phoenix new construction, Boise internet rentals, etc? The stories that will emerge will provide blog fodder for years!
I talked to a friend of mine who, last year bought a house in the low $100,000 and moved from San Diego to Tennesse. He lays tile for a living and said they’re still building like crazy where he’s at and he should have work lined up for years.
To me it sounds like just another example of an outlying area falling victim to the bubble. Equity rich Californians can’t buy in every little corner of America can they? I just hope my friend does continue to get work. He’s an honest, hardworking guy and a great tiler though so I hope there’s always work for him.
I think this will continue as long as there are ‘undervalued areas’ and as long as there is plenty of ‘easy money’.
Maybe the CA people can’t buy every little corner of the US (just like Dutch and UK buyers can’t buy every little corner of Europe), but the trouble is: because they drive other buyers out of their local markets, the problem keeps spreading until there is no ‘undervalued’ area left. Or until there is a huge shift in market psychology which causes people to swear they will never again own a home - that would stop and probably revert the spread, but we aren’t there yet by a long shot.
Yet the projects keep coming, on and on and on, without any tie to demand, income, appropriateness, or reality. After a steady one-a-day string of stories of planned upscale condominium towers and the like (all with associated “retail space”), today’s Tampa Tribune had so many such stories that I stopped counting. Most of the developers are from south Florida.
You’d think the blizzard of “for sale” signs around here would impact developers’ decisional processes, but it could be the ideological equivalent of an airplane taking off–at some point, you reach a point on the runway where stopping is impossible. The only options are take off or crash.
I think you’re right. If ground has already been broken, it means the general and subs have probably already been hired and materials delivered (or about to be). At the point where you have a big hole in the ground and 17 tons of bricks and 100 custom-designed marble jacuzzi tubs sitting in a warehouse and 20 percent of the remaining construction costs sitting in the bank waiting to be used, it’s probably more prudent just to go ahead, finish the d**n thing, and hope for the best. Either that, or take the cash and run off to Buenos Aires.
Not true. My parents live in Bellevue, WA (a fancy suburb of Seattle), where a huge (huge! like 30 storey+) office/retail/condo project was halted after pouring a foundation and part of the building frame was already built back in 2001. It sat vacant, right in the middle of town on the 2nd busiest intersection in the state, looking like a relic in a 3rd world country.
Apparently the builder’s equity or bank financing dried up as the dot-com crash killed office rents/occupancy. It eventually got built (and all the fancy condos got flipped), but it was touch-and-go for a couple of years. So it’s not like it never happens. I’m amazed that these project in Miami aren’t going through the same thing, given the 10+ yrs of inventory coming online.
I remember a small development right up the street from our house in Riverside. In early ’90s the developer built the model homes and about one block then stopped. This was a “gated community.” All the rest of the pads were graded, the streets were paved up to a certain level then stopped and turned into dirt.
The development stayed that way until the early 2000s when someone else finally went in and finished building the rest. Meanwhile people lived in the model homes and the block of finished homes that whole time and had major trouble trying to resell. These were view homes on a golf course too!
That would suck buying early then having the rest of the project not completed for almost 10 years!
Rising costs of homes a concern in Tampa.
http://news.tbo.com/news/metro/MGBNPB2IMNE.html
Looking over the FAR numbers I linked to, a few areas stand out. The condo market cratered. Punta Gorda condo sales fell 98%, from 83 last year to 2 this April. Palm Bay condo sales were down 81% and the median was off 17%.
For SFH, sales in every region were down buy double digits except Jacksonville (-4%) and Tallahassee (+5). Daytona Beach and Ft. Lauderdale down 37%, Ft Meyers-Cape Coral-Ft Pierce -28%. Miami down 31%.
I dont know why sales are down ? take out a fifty year arm,Share your home with friends, get Insurance from crazy bobs insurance & bait shop, Put your kids on E-BAY and you can do it, Susanne ran the numbers, Yeah Right
That there are any condos at all in Palm Bay astounds me. There is so much developable land there where there are only a few defense employers and Melbourne to keep Palm Bay going. The ratio of land to jobs is so high and there is no downtown and no reason for high density living. The only waterfront is the smelly Indian River. Who would buy anywhere near that is beyond me.
I live in Palm Bay and I agree with u ..
but .. there are condo’s right next to the townhouse community I live in .. it’s butt-ugly building built in the 70’s I think and its nowhere close to water ..
One thing that is often overlooked is the impact on “drastic” amounts of commission reductions to realtors, mortgage brokers, bankers, title agencies, landscapers…and the list could continue.
All the economists, who are now coming out of their slumber should be ashamed of themselves for not recognizing what has been staring them in the face. This will turn into a serious problem as there is simply less money to go around on the consumption front.
Remember, that during the dot com unraveling, something like 1 in 10 economists predicted a recession. They are truly worthless because all they deal with are mainly figures and formulas. The true story on what is happening out there is what we have been blogging about for months. This will all be born out in good time.
I would think those news releases with topic like “Median Price Rises” are not good for realtors. They need to emphasize sales down and create fear among sellers. They make no money when homes are not selling. Sales will continue to fall until prices are attractive again, so it’s to the best interest of realtors to push the prices down now.
True enough re. commissions, but many realtors are also over-leveraged investors who may fear bankruptcy more than losing sales revenue.
Agreed goleta. RE agents, IMO, will help lead the fall in prices, because they need sales in order to get a commission.
I’m not so sure. If realtors admit prices are heading downwards then even less people are going to buy. Anyone who has been buying lately probably did so because they were dumb enough to believe the realtor spin of ‘prices are still going up! Get in before interest rates go any higher!’
If you saw prices going down would you buy? Or just wait for them to go down some more? I think they boxed themselves into a no-win situation.
That is an interesting topic. If you were a realtor, what would you do?
I would lie. I’d probably tell my buyers prices were still going up, and tell my sellers they’re going down! hmmm…. I wonder if that is what they do ALL the time?
Bad strategy. I closed over 100k in commissions last month. Each and everyone knew from conversations with me and others that the market was tanking. The buyers of property their argument was they wanted to get in before rates went up. The refinances same arguement trying to get fixed rate befor there adjustables went haywire.
Folks on this blog don’t get it. Even when people get rational advice. They still do what they have made up in their mind that they are going to do. Damn what anybody else says.
Goleta - glad to see you posting. Here in Central Florida, the long-time agents have seen the light and are beginning to press for price reductions. Talked to one over the weekend, who had a lackluster open house in a waterview condo for which she convinced the wishful sellers to cut 20%. More to come. Prices are falling, but it takes a while to reach the media. Fall they will, down and down and down.
So much equity has been “created” that people will be able to export the bubble prices all over the country.
This could be the first inning…yes housing prices are flat in CA, PHX, LV but they could be rising in Texas, NC, Mid-West. And the game goes on. In the end, it will be as though everyone in the country decided their house was worth 2-3x as much as 5-6 years ago. Huge amounts of wealth “created”, huge HELOC balances available to be consumed. And on and on. What’s to stop it?
How much equity was created in CA, Fla, etc, over the past 5 years? Any idea? 20M homes, 300K each, that’s 6 TRILLION dollars. ONly a couple trillion has been HELOC’d and consumed.
Who’s to say how long it lasts or when and where it ends.
Well, it is difficult to know when it will exactly end and what the consequences will be although we do know that bubbles like this always end. Even the tulip bubble eventually collapsed.
Agreed. Those who refinanced or bought and did not HELOC before 2004 are probably sitting pretty if they locked in a fixed rate. My gut tells me they will be sitting on the sidelines and smiling, watching the carnage and knowing they are relatively safe.
Two of the most popular words in the financial journalists’ lexicon these days for discussing the changing housing market conditions are “cooling” and “plummet.” These two words somehow seem to clash as alternative descriptions for the same situation.
Just in…The last square Ft. of Fla. has been paved over. Also coinsides with the completion of a fastfood chain on every corner across the state.
You can’t see the water unless on the beach because it’s one long line of condos ,and strip malls. …otherwise looks like there will be alot of cheap houses coming on line soon.
Florida state-wide Single family homes sales are down 25% for March and April 06 compared to those same months last year.
March-April 05 47,500
March-April 06 35,200
Prices will follow.
Twin Cities (Minnesota) active listings are at 37,000 this week.
April ‘06 stats show active listings up 45.1% from April ‘05.
April ‘06 closed sales are down 15.6% from April ‘05.
Housing supply outlook for May ‘06 is 6.4 months, up from 4.2 months in May ‘05.
The median sale price increased a measly $6,000 over the past year - from $224,000 to $230,000.
Hey Homo, Do you have any figures on condo sales or listings in the Twin City market?
Broward price in April 06 was 360k which is 5% increase YOY. In May 05 it was 367k. I expect next month we’ll see YOY declines in prices.
Job numbers are up. If incomes increase there may not be a nation wide crash even though the run up has been more than just on the coasts. Might be just a local phenomena for the really over supplied areas. Any thoughts?
Newly created jobs typically pay less. Cheaper to outsource, no matter how bad the service.
Sorry to post on my post, but I was just reminded that a lot of the mortgage process functions are now being engineered to be outsourced to India. Adios Greedy MFs! (Mortgage Functionaries)
Realtor reduction program. Crunch a few numbers, and see how many real estate agents are unemployeed.
“The Florida realtors have the April numbers out. “Housing sales plummeted last month compared to the previous April, according to numbers today from the Florida Association of Realtors.”
“A total of 16,392 existing single-family homes sold statewide last month, a decrease of 31 percent from the 23,844 homes that changed hands during the previous April, according to FAR.”
So 23,844 SFH units sold in 2005, minus 16,392 units sold in April 2006, is 7452 fewer houses sold in Florida. Say the average price is $250K for these houses, so 7452 fewer units, times $250K is $1.8B. $1.8B in “lost” sales.
Assume that the standard realtor commision for a sale is 6% of this, or $112M in “lost” commissions. If the average realtor makes $75K per year, this works out to about 1500 fewer real estate agent jobs.
And, this assumes that a single person gets the 6% commission. Usually, the commission is split, and the buyer and seller agents for the sale only get 1/4 of the commission. So, instead of 1500 r/e agents, there are now 4x this, or 6000 newly unemployeed real estate agents.
For the month of April. Twelve times this, for a full year, and that is 72000 agents looking for work. This is a very scary number, for just Florida.
I shudder to think about the construction or mortgage business, where they just lay everybody off.
Just the back of an envelope…
Florida’s housing sales is stalling out. Existing home sellers are currently in denial and this denial is reflected in the sales numbers and meager price increases. It is only a matter of time before sellers accept the fact that their are fewer buyers and builders are aggresively marketing to them.
Also, Jacksonville is in for a rough ride. It is number 7 in foreclosures and AOL recently shut it’s doors. Everyone was fired. Now Wamu is doing the same, outsourcing to the Phillipines. A lot of intOnlyNegArms in these parts. What a mess!