April Home Sales ‘Tenth Busiest On Record’: MAR
The Massachusetts realtors have the April numbers out. “Housing demand continued to ease across the Bay State last month as rising mortgage rates, higher energy prices, and a steady increase in the inventory on unsold homes led to a slower sales pace for single-family homes and condominiums in April, according to a report released today by the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.”
“Sales of detached single-family homes fell to their lowest April level in five years, declining 9.9 percent over the past year from 3,628 homes sold in April 2005 to 3,268 this past April, while condo sales decreased 10.3 percent over year ago levels.”
“The more deliberate approach on the part of buyers is evident from the larger inventory level and longer listing time witnessed this April. Over the past year, the number of detached single-family homes and condominiums listed for sale has increased by 38.6 percent, from 47,066 properties on the market in April 2005 to 65,232 this April.”
From the Talking Points. “The 3,268 homes sold last month is the lowest April sales total in five years, dating back to April 2001 when 3,217 detached homes were sold. Historically, however, April 2006 ranks as the tenth busiest on record for home sales during the month of April, an indication that sales activity has merely returned to more normal levels.”
“The 5 percent decline in home sales between March and April is unexpected and is further evidence of today’s strong buyer’s market, in which buyers are exhaustively searching the market for the right property and refusing to spend beyond their budget.”
“The last time sales fell from March to April in Massachusetts was more than a decade ago, in 1995, when sales declined 23.3 percent from March to April, following the implementation of strict, new Title 5 septic regulations.”
“The supply of detached single-family homes on the market rose for a 14th consecutive month in April, climbing 30.4 percent over the past year from 32,710 homes for sale in April 2005 to 42,667 this March. Inventory, as stated in months of supply, also rose steadily from 9 months last April to 13.1 months of supply in April 2006.”
“The number of condos for sale has increased 57.2 percent in the past year, from 14,356 units last April to 22,565 in April 2006. Inventory, as stated in months of supply has risen, climbing to 13.4 months of supply this past April from 7.6 months of supply in April 2005. In addition, condo listings have increased 9.8 percent from March when there were 20,549 condo units on the market and 11.9 months of supply.”
“With demand for condos easing last month, the statewide median selling price for condominiums declined for the first time 88 months in April, sliding 2.5 percent to $268,000 from $275,000 in April 2005. The last decrease in condo prices on a year-to-year basis was in December 1998. The median price of $268,000 is down 6.9 percent from the record high median selling price of $287,900 set in July 2005.”
“‘The rapid price appreciation of recent years has given way to a period of relative price stability, which is good for buyers since it will allow incomes to catch up with home prices and help offset the recent rise in mortgage rates,’ said MAR President David Wluka. ‘Today, pricing is more important than ever. Homes priced right are selling, while those that are overpriced are not,’ he said.”
“Talk of a housing ‘bubble’ in the local market also prompted some buyers to stop house-hunting all together until just a few weeks ago, and that’s led to some softening in demand.”
Note: some of the data links on the second link down are PDF’s.
Here are the SFH April records, apparently going back only to 1991:
2006..3,268
2005..3,628
2004..4,046
2003..3,318
2002..3.609
2001..3,217
2000..3,421
1999..4,216
1998..4,139
1997..3,521
1996..3,385
1995..1,931
1994..3,180
1993..2,675
1992..2,885
1991..2,107
13.1 months supply of SFH and 11.9 months worth of condo’s.
LMAO
I have heard anything over a 6 months supply represents a buyers market. What does over a 12 months supply represent???
“‘The rapid price appreciation of recent years has given way to a period of relative price stability, which is good for buyers since it will allow incomes to catch up with home prices and help offset the recent rise in mortgage rates,’ said MAR President David Wluka.”
ROFLMAO
Does this guy get his stuff directly from David or does he seek outside counsil???
Keep em coming Ben.
I guess I was wrong about PHX being the epicenter. It looks like Mass is going to get clobbered from here on out. Run for your lives people!!!
I have heard anything over a 6 months supply represents a buyers market. What does over a 12 months supply represent???
____________________________________
A mild TSUNAMI!
A sucker’s market since only a sucker would buy a house there right now.
It would be interesting to see the available inventory in those years as well.
You betcha.
Scroll down to the bottom of this page
http://www.investech.com/
Great suggestion. I’ll see what I can get from the local MLS in the next 24 hours or so, and post here.
Talk of a housing ‘bubble’ in the local market also prompted some buyers to stop house-hunting all together until just a few weeks ago, and that’s led to some softening in demand.”
________________________________________________________
Two things -
1) Its not housing bubble talk that caused this - PRICES ARE TOO HIGH!
2) I keep hearing this - things were slow and they have picked up in the last few weeks - This is the optomism of a salesperson. They always think its gonna be better today. Keep dreaming buddy, in the mean time, load up on Top Ramen!!
the numbers need to be adjusted for higher base figure= higher pop etc…..whoops, forgot this is MA w falling pop
things will pick up by the end of MAY”
LIErah said so
Speaking of home sales…I saw something earlier today that made me think. I saw the semi-permanent sign twirler (same homeless looking scraggy beard guy I’ve seen for months) here in Natomas but today there was something different.
Usually he just stand in one place and does a kind of hula shuffle. Well today he was out there dancing around and spining in circles and really putting alot of energy into it.
I figured maybe he went to a morning meeting with the RE office and the boss might have been pissed about low sales. I can imagine the boss said something like “Dammit, these homes aren’t selling, you need to dance faster!”
That boss was probably on the roof of the condo with a pellet gun and a scope, firing a shot into his butt every time he slowed down
One can only hope that the media in MA chews up MAR for this laughable and intellectually dishonest piece of spin.
Fortunately, Homeowner_MA is insulated from all this, right, Homeowner? We haven’t heard from him for many months, but his posts were so bullish I’m sure he is OK. Hang in there, buddy. Don’t forget to go to the assessor’s office — might get your taxes reduced a bunch!
P.S. Homeowner_MA — don’t thank me here, in front of all of the bears, for that tax tip. Just email me at Chip@stayinmassfolks.com
I am sure he is lurking somewhere. He is trying to unload is properties onto va_investor or lv_landlord or some other sap!
My favorite lv_landlord post was the ‘hyper-appreciation’ expectation. I wish I had saved it.
Here you go, it’s at 7:26 on 04/28
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=573#comments
you guys are ruthless, but as Homer would say, “ooooh, sacrilicious”, so sez me. I have had to listen to too much “you’re throwing your money away on rent” garbage talk for the last couple of years.
If you’re gonna be a bear, you might as well be a grizzly. Sacred cows (i.e. bulls) make the best hamburgers.
I am trying not to be too harsh, but the Bulls were on Parade last year charging hard. They were killing us with the - buy now or be priced out…, RE never goes down…, blah blah
We’ve been tracking the relationship of sales prices and tax assessment for several months, and some trends are beginning to emerge. If anyone would like a sneak preview of April sales below assessed value in 27 cities and towns in Greater Boston, please contact us via email. (Wish I could post the link here, but we agreed to hold public release till more research can verify the magnitude of the problem.)
The same thing is occurring here in Fauquier County, VA. This January the county decided to do a “fair market value” assessment. Yipes!! Several months ago Ben did mention it here on the blog. Now, if the property isn’t priced BELOW that January assessment it won’t stand a chance.
OT but about appraisals.
When we had our house built we did it without an agent (no advice) and opted for an additional conservatory w/ tile floor (our music room and so pretty) over a brick front. We spent 500K, as did our next-door neighbor who got a different model but did the brick. The local assessors assessed ours for 50K less, and when we sold it we did indeed accept 50K less than the neighbor with the brick front who sold a few months later. It’s kind of a double-edged sword. The occupants of the home can enjoy the interior space and spend less on assessment every year but get less for resale. (Of course, the other three sides are vinyl in all the other homes so we thought it was kind of silly anyway). My father in PA does a similar thing. He keeps the exterior looking shabby so local assessors assess for less. They don’t come inside.
Thanks for the news about properties selling below their assessed value in Virginia, too. I recorded a podcast, but have not released it for reasons stated above, with a buyer agent in New Hampshire who said listing agents are using the MLS listing to tell potential buyers that the home is priced below assessment. I haven’t verified that practice, but does anyone know if listing agents doing the same thing in VA or elsewhere?
Is so, sounds like that could create quite a downward spiral, which would have impacts beyond individual buyers and sellers to the ability for cities and towns to finance municipal services.
I have seen that on several properties on the MLS here in WA State. It does usually read “Agent/owner, Assessed below value”.
Naturally, still way overpriced so hard to say they are doing a LOT to bring the comps down.
(To the background music of American Idol finale, showing some of the losers): Nov. 20, 2005 — homeowner_MA: “I think that the events unfolding are quite complicated and it is difficult to predict where exactly we will land up. That is why people who thought that the house prices were too high in the last couple of years were proved to be wrong.”
“Tenth busiest” April! ROFLMAO! So there were 9 other years in MA history where they sold more homes. I don’t really even see how that’s worthy of mention, unless it’s for the sheer amusement of readers. Otherwise, it’s truly a telling statement of the desperation for any sort of positive spin. Next will we see seventeeth busiest May? Twenty third busiest June?
Yeah, try telling the next person you sleep with that they are the tenth best lover you ever had, see how excited they get…
“Yeah, try telling the next person you sleep with that they are the tenth best lover you ever had, see how excited they get…”
If you are Wilt Chamberlain, she should be impressed to have made top ten.
Yeah, but if you’re the average realtor, maybe less so…
I think number 11 was the year the pilgrims bought a bunch of land from the Indians for 20 barrels of beer and three muskets
“Historically, however, April 2006 ranks as the tenth busiest on record for home sales during the month of April”
If the records only go back to 1991, it is the 10th “busiest” April out of a total of fifteen, putting it near the bottom of the barrel. A more accurate way of phrasing it would be to say it was the 10th worst-selling April on record, or one of the six worst-selling Aprils on on record.
Florida in the 1920s the prices would not go down due to the I wont give it away mentality. But by 1925, real estate prices had become so exorbitant that buying land wasn’t affordable any longer. New investors failed to arrive and old investors started to sell. Panic arrived, as it always does, and the real estate market crashed. Prices kept moving downwards as heavily indebted investors tried to sell to avoid bankruptcy. In most cases, no buyers arrived, and the investors were bankrupt from the enormous mortgages.
To make matters even worse, a highly destructive hurricane ravaged South Florida in September 1926. The 125 mile an hour winds eventually turned Palm Beach County into swamp lands. After the storm, a huge tidal wave crashed upon the towns of Belle Glade and Moore Haven. Due to these horrible turn of events, over 13,000 homes were destroyed and 415 people died.
Guys, I never want to own real estate.
Since I’d known friends and family who’d gotten chopped in Houston in the oil bust cerca ‘85, Boston in the ‘89 condo crash, and others in LA during the defense layoffs of ‘92, I just don’t see the need to own a piece of property.
I mean jobs move across state lines and national boundaries all the time, what kind of constancy can one expect nowadays anyways. Remember when a job at John Hancock or Polaroid was a job for life? Today, you can be grateful if you can stay somewhere for 3-4 years. That’s not the receipe for housing, as a long term buy and hold type of asset, but for a culture/society of migrant workers going from one rental community to another as a lifestyle.
It is not that bad. If you can afford a 10% to 20% downpayment and have 6 months to a year worth of reserves in the bank. Most people now could not afford that, but prices will return to reality soon.
“I mean jobs move across state lines and national boundaries all the time, what kind of constancy can one expect nowadays anyways.”
The coasts have become the bubble areas because that’s where all the office/information jobs are. With the decline of manufacturing, home prices haven’t moved much in the central US. But why do these office people have to live on the coasts? With high speed internet, teleconferencing, cheap unlimited long distance phone calls, etc. there’s no reason they can’t do most of these jobs from home. And home could just as easily be Wichita as Bethesda. Work at home is starting to catch on, but slowly. One of the biggest problems is 50-70 year old bosses who want employees where they can see them. As they retire, resistance to work at home should fall.
A house in Bethesda probably costs 5X or more of an equal house in Kansas. Its quite possible that 20 years from now that difference will shrink considerably.
Have you ever been to Kansas? There’s something to be said for culture, nice weather, beautiful natural surroundings, and proximity to the ocean and large cities. Kansas has tornados. Someone who can be content living in the midwest has no problems… go there and live in a mansion. I just couldn’t do it.
I’ve been wondering about “geographic arbitrage” for some time now. I think a place like Boston or San Francisco should command a premium over most places, but not nearly the size premium that we’re seeing today. And of course it’s not just housing that is far more expensive; running a business in these bubble zones is a lot more expensive. Higher office rents, higher taxes, more regulations, and employees that expect higher salaries all add up to a substantial premium. With communications technologies as they are today I just don’t see advantages of being in a big city for most types of work.
People say, “you’ve got to go where the talented employees are, and those are the high priced areas.” But I don’t think this argument holds water; it seems like most people these days are highly mobile and willing to move across the country for a good opportunity (especially with house prices as they are).
For these reasons I’m predicting a population diffusion until some new equilibrium is reached.
What a $1million deal! I wonder if it’s still available. Awww, damn…the listing is there. Hmm…someone *bought* this thing??????
http://www.gothamist.com/archives/2006/03/29/real_estate_bub.php
BayQT~
Saw that one before. Did it actually sell??????
OMG. I just can’t believe the lack of common sense intelligence these days. When this kind of insanity is so prevalent, one begins to doubt his/her own sanity as well.
What if we are wrong???
Nah!
I meant to say ‘the listing ISN’T there.
BayQT~
If that place sold for anywhere near 1 Million I would keel over and die laughing.
I guess the crack business must be going pretty well in the area.
I would think the crack houses are doing great, at least in Florida. I’ve been trying to buy there for three years and just couldn’t jump into the insanity. verytime I look at houses there the only thing I can figure is are not only the realtors on crack but the home owners have to be too, that’s the only explanation I see when you ask ” how much” are you asking!
It could be resold for a million as a working meth lab !
10th busiest ever! Oh, wait a second, doesn’t anyone find it ironic that it’s also the 10th busiest April in the last 11 years? Why not title this as “Second Slowest April in the last 10 years!”
A refresher from above:
2006..3,268
don’t EVEN get me started.
Price indexes overstate inflation, Bernanke says
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1148591127-50950f08-39026
Noooooo! This world is truly losing it. CPI **overstates** inflation??????? WTF is BB smoking?
he lives in a tent and is anorexic
Read about Home Prices Do Fall
A Look At The Collapse Of The 1980’s Real Estate Bubble
Through The Eyes Of The New York Times.
Forclosure count
ALL Counties (3442) * 3/3
orange county (994)
northwest riverside (900)
southwest riverside (265)
east riverside (405)
san bernardino border (170)
san diego border (117)
los angeles border (591)
ALL Counties (3366) * 3/18/06
orange county (944)
northwest riverside (932)
southwest riverside (269)
east riverside (395)
san bernardino border (169)
san diego border (127)
los angeles border (530)
ALL Counties (3452) * 5/24/06
orange county (1106)
northwest riverside (789)
southwest riverside (393)
east riverside (401)
san bernardino border (191)
san diego border (133)
los angeles border (439)
“While the masses were left totally confused, some real estate developers have taken advantage of the situation to fuel panic among anxious house buyers. Rumours of more and sharper price hikes were flying in the market. Numbers of unsold houses were deliberately distorted to create a false sense of short supply.”
This is from a China Newspaper. I wonder how much of this happened here?
I know the Chinese “leadership” gets a really bad rap in the US, well deserved in many cases. But as the saying goes “Let He who is without….be the first to throw stones..”
I’ve been reading the Chinese press for the past 20 years or so and this is something that I do admire: the total bluntness and frankness that they are capable of using for those things they DO choose to report on.
Gotta love it: “while the masses were left totally confused, RE developers took advantage of the situation to fuel panic…..”
Sound familiar to anyone here? Wonder if we will EVER read such an account in our papers.