Bits Bucket for December 6, 2012
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Happy St Nicholas Day
Happy Thursday!
Happy Hedge Fund Housing Decade:
Shortened URL: goo.gl/9J6Dl
One of the most significant real estate investment trends of 2012 has been the tremendous amount of institutional capital directed into single-family housing rental investments. And while it’s still too early to tell whether it’s all a passing fad or ‘the next big thing,’ some have begun questioning whether the burgeoning industry will see long-lasting returns in rental income and property value appreciation.
“It’s hard to believe that it has only been nine months since the first true institutional capital to enter this market was announced by Waypoint Homes and GI Partners,” Chang observed {Oliver Chang, former head of U.S. housing strategy at Morgan Stanley}.
“Over the course of these nine months, we have seen the entrants of half a dozen additional large private equity firms, hedge funds, REITs and institutional investors, including Sylvan Road Capital. Despite the surge of activity, it looks like there is currently more hype surrounding this investment than substance. There seems to be more news articles, research reports, conference panels and press announcements than there are actual investments in actual houses.”
Accordiing to Chang, “The highest estimate of institutional capital raised or ring-fenced for this investment that we’ve seen is $8 billion. While this is a substantial amount of money by most measures, it is a miniscule percentage of the total supply of distressed inventory… We believe that the $8 billion is less than 1% of any reasonable estimate of the size of this actual opportunity. And yet the hype keeps building.
Examples of the recent entry of significant private equity players focused on bulk purchases of foreclosed homes in 2012 include:
- Blackstone: 6,500 homes in AZ, SoCal;
- Waypoint: 2,400 homes in CA, AZ;
- Colony Financial: 3,600 homes in CA, AZ, NV, TX, GA, CO; and
- KKR: 200 homes in AZ, NV.
…..so the big money is making their moves. Curious it took them so long, but I guess $8 billion takes a while to gather!
‘We believe that the $8 billion is less than 1% of any reasonable estimate of the size of this actual opportunity. And yet the hype keeps building’
Oh it’s less than 1%, probably like 1/100th of 1%, maybe less. There are 108,000 vacant housing units in greater Phoenix by the last count.
‘And yet the hype keeps building…’
Something like a few hundred billion dollars worth of homes were acquired all-cash over the past 12 months (I can’t put my finger on the article)…
There is far more than the big players involved. They just don’t have newspaper articles written about them.
“There is far more than the big players involved. They just don’t have newspaper articles written about them.”
Can you suggest which government agency would be the appropriate place to send the Freedom of Information Act request to obtain details?
I guess the big money is either the ‘dumb money’ or the ‘fly-by-night money’ or the ’soon-to-be-bailed-out-again money’.
Only time will tell which…
But meanwhile, enjoy your home-equity wealth gains at the expense of a massive flow of federal subsidies into housing.
CIBT, it is OPM money……Other Peoples Money. The hedge funds get their managment fees, commissions in, commissions out and property management fees, etc, etc, etc. If the investments grow, they get 20% off the top. If they don’t, “Oh well, we made a great living off the OPM!”
Good point, CIBT. And, speaking of massive federal subsidies, it looks like our beloved banksters are also benefiting. Quoth David Dayen at Firedoglake:
Banks Rake In Profits – Largely From Government Supports
That’s a good read, Slim. Thanks!
I think the hedgies are going to get schooled in the realities of SFR landlording. Bigtime.
Unless they get bailed out too.
Do the hedgies qualify as too big to fail? (I know Long Term Capital Management did…)
It’s not clear to me, but I thought I understood the Health Insurance Tax under Obamacare, which is 3.8% of “Net Investment Income,” can be reduced by Net Passive Losses From Rental Real Estate (even though you still can’t reduce your regular income tax liability with Net Passive Losses, generally.)
So that’s some sort of new incentive to own rental real estate. Maybe that’s enough to beat 2% taxable Treasuries…
happy ‘ware on wages’ day.
ware = war
Isn’t every day “war on wages and by extension the middle class” day?
Shut yer commie talk mouth!
If you’re so tired of being underpaid why don’t you man up, get bootstrapping, ride on down to Galt Gulch, live the Horatio Alger life, and become a PRODUCER!
Happy St Nicholas Day
Poor St. Nick! Ever since he got co-opted by Coca Cola, no one remembers him anymore and that Santa guy gets all the attention.
Funny thing about St. Nick, he’s buried in Bari, Italy. Turkey is demanding that he be sent back so he can be buried in his old home town, not sure why though.
not sure why though.
Isn’t that obvious?? Tourism dollars…
I thought about that, but would it really generate that much tourism? Are people really gonna go to Turkey to see St. Nick’s tomb?
The MID is a tax giveaway to wealthy homeowners in Blue States like HI, CA and NY. I’m surprised Red State Congressmen don’t point this out and toss it over the proverbial ‘fiscal cliff.’
Mortgage deduction is popular, but few claim it
10:25 PM, Dec 5, 2012
WASHINGTON — Designed to boost home ownership, the mortgage interest deduction is one of the most popular provisions of the tax code. But Internal Revenue Service data show that only 25 percent of tax filers claim it.
The use of the deduction varies widely from region to region, ranging from a high of 37 percent of taxpayers in Maryland to a low of 15 percent in North Dakota and West Virginia, according to a USA TODAY analysis of IRS data.
As Congress and President Obama look for a deal to avert self-imposed austerity measures known as the “fiscal cliff,” mortgage interest deductions are part of a menu of policy changes that could close the gap between what the government spends and what it takes in. That’s in part because the mortgage deduction comes at a significant price tag to the federal treasury: $108 billion a year.
IRS data underscore the uneven benefit of the mortgage interest deduction, which is popular in high-cost areas but rarely claimed in areas with low housing costs. That’s because the deduction is available only to those who itemize deductions. And the numbers work only for taxpayers whose total deductions – for mortgage interest, charitable giving and other expenses – are worth more than the standard deduction.
In states with high costs of housing – California, Hawaii, Washington, Virginia, Maryland and Nevada – the average deduction is more than $12,000 a year per taxpayer, easily surpassing the standard deduction ($11,900 for a married couple filing jointly for 2012) even before charitable contributions and other deductions.
…
“Designed to boost home ownership, the mortgage interest deduction is one of the most popular provisions of the tax code.”
Even though only twenty-five percent of tax filers claim it.
So, why, then, is it so popular?
Maybe, perhaps, possibly … realtors use this deduction as a sales tool, use it as a tool in convincing the future FB that they are smart to buy because the tax man will, in effect, end up helping them out in making their payments . Which may be true if interest rate were high - the higher the rates the greater the tax deduction - but not so true if interest rates are low.
But the FB will only find that out when he does the math, and he only does the math at tax time which is sometime after the time he commits to buying the house.
Just a thought, FWIW.
“So, why, then, is it so popular?”
I become increasingly convinced over time that most of the world is incapable of seeing past propaganda hype. A good example is the NAR’s characterization of the MID as a vital middle-class tax break, even though the benefits of the deduction may not benefit the median middle-class household at all, and fall disproportionately on homeowners in the upper 4% tail of the income distribution (those who earn over $250,000 a year).
According to some sources, not only would eliminating the MID potentially harm the middle-class, but it could also hit churches as well. I didn’t realize that renters had a federal obligation for not only implicitly* cross-subsidizing homeowners’ mortgage payments, but also to help them keep the churches of their choice afloat — but there it is!
Most people apparently are too dumb, lazy, or indifferent to look beyond hype to see the real picture.
* Implicit subsidy = one which is only available to club members, such as members of the Homeownership Society; those who don’t qualify implicitly fund it through their tax dollars.
It wasn’t designed to do any such thing. Originally individuals could deduct all sorts of interest. In the 1986 tax reform almost all of those deductions were removed. The mortgage interest one was left in place, probably because it was seen as a more responsible type of debt than constantly carrying a credit card balance. But it was left in as part of a “you can’t take everything away” moment, not as a policy specifically designed to promote something new.
As for it being popular? I blame turbo tax, H&R block, etc. If people did their taxes by hand, they would know they aren’t actually itemizing and therefore can’t be getting any benefit from it.
If people did their taxes by hand, they would know they aren’t actually itemizing and therefore can’t be getting any benefit from it.
IDK, my online tax service will run through all my possible deductions, and then tell me if it’s worth taking them, or going with the standard deduction. They spell it out very clearly- show you the two amounts- even tell you which one will benefit you the most, if you can’t do math at all. If you’re confused after that, there’s no hope.
That is dependent on you reading the information provided in the software rather than just hitting the button the software says is better and ignoring the rest.
rather than just hitting the button the software says is better and ignoring the rest.
So you’re saying I shouldn’t just set up my bobbing glass bird to tap the ‘y’ key when doing my taxes?
Or take it to H&R Block and say, “I’m sure you’ll do the right thing. I just don’t want to look at it. Where do I sign? I can get how much money in a refund anticipation loan? Yeah, I’ll take it.”
So you’re saying I shouldn’t just set up my bobbing glass bird to tap the ‘y’ key when doing my taxes?
LOL.
Reminds me of that Kayak.com commercial with the guy and his “automatons” checking travel sites for deals…
Yeah TaxCut makes it pretty clear which route you’re going too.
So you’re saying I shouldn’t just set up my bobbing glass bird to tap the ‘y’ key when doing my taxes?
LOL… Nice image, alpha!
It was a classical allusion- to the Simpsons, America’s Shakespeare.
It was a classical allusion- to the Simpsons, America’s Shakespeare.
What does that make Family Guy and Futurama?
I find Family Guy to merely obnoxious. At least Futurama is clever at times. The newer ones do seem to be missing something though.
The MID was much more valuable 10-15 years ago, when interest rates were much higher and the standard deduction was lower. Example:
In 1999, the standard deduction for married filing jointly was $7200 <– http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/Content/PDF/historical_standard_deduct.pdf [PDF]
In 1999, fixed mortgage interest rates were about 7%. <– http://www.ncjinc.com/longterm.htm
In 1999, a typical ranch house in my nabe cost around $180K. Let’s say you put 20% down to get that 7% rate. Your interest was $10,000. <– bankrate calc
In other words, even for a smaller (i.e. J6P) house using the best interest rate, the MID was was already above the standard deduction.* So in the past, there was some fundamental justification for Realtors to use MID as a selling point.*
During the bubble, the MID looked valuable because people took out interest-only mortgages. When you don’t pay attention to pesky things like paying down actual principal, MID looks pretty darn good when it whacks 1/3 off your howmuchamonth.
These days, I agree, there isn’t nearly the justification for MID. And to be honest, if you’re going to get rid of it entirely, NOW’s the time to do it. Prices will have time to adjust before interest rates inevitably rise again to make MID valuble again.
———–
*At least in areas where housing is comparatively expensive and interest creeps up near standard deduction. But in flyover country, where houses cost half as much but the standard deduction is still the same, it looks to me like MID was never worth it. A national standard deduction, just like a national minimum wage, favors flyover.
It also depends on if your state has a state income tax. When I lived in Florida, with no state income tax, the value of the MID was reduced by the standard deduction amount.
In other words, I was only able to deduct the amount of the MID that was in excess of the standard deduction.
In states with income taxes, the standard deduction threshold is easily covered by the state income tax deduction (at least it is for me). As a result the mortgage interest is all beyond the threshold of deductibility.
But the FB will only find that out when he does the math, and he only does the math at tax time which is sometime after the time he commits to buying the house.
I’ve started wondering, how many FBs don’t even do the math? They bought thinking they would get the deduction, and then don’t. But how many of them even do their own taxes? How many of them are told by their tax preparer that they didn’t actually get the benefit of the MID, or that they only actually got a couple hundred bucks of savings on thousands in interest paid that year? How many of them just sign the return and have no clue at all?
I think we may have a bunch of people so ignorant they actually think they are getting over on the system when they’re not.
We have a bunch of profoundly ignorant people & an MSM dedicated to pimping the real estate industry.
The goal of a tax preparer is to make sure that you find the process more pleasant than doing it yourself so you come back next year. They may try to convince you that they found deductions or credits that you wouldn’t have found. If they can’t manage that, they will just make sure you get a cup of OK coffee and a chance to get your refund faster. The one thing they will never do it demonstrate that you could have done it yourself in an hour and half (that is assuming you have to do a state return as well and rechecking everything 4 times) and gotten the exact same result.
The one thing they will never do it demonstrate that you could have done it yourself in an hour and half
My tax return hasn’t taken as little as an hour and a half in MANY, many years…
Once again, here is a topic the HBB posters have been touting for a couple of years. The mortgage interest deduction is a fallacy to Joe Six Pack.
However, $108 Billion is not chicken feed and I will bet you dollars to dimes almost every person using the MID is also a voter in every election!
“$108 Billion”
What does that figure represent? (Here’s to guessing in advance your explanation will be incorrect…)
His numbers never add up. They are pulled from a very stinky place.
I saw this same number quoted by CNBC; they don’t attribute their source, though.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100280275
That’s in part because the mortgage deduction comes at a significant price tag to the federal treasury: $108 billion a year.
Well if the $108 bn appears on CNBC, it must be the God-given truth, right?
But seriously, look at my post further below to see why I believe the figure may be seriously overstated due to a calculation error.
It wasn’t a fallacy when mortgage rates were 8 to 12%.
“only 25 percent of tax filers claim it…”
Too funny! That would be about half of all people who actually have a mortgage and a tax bill. That’s your definition of “rich”.
That’s your definition of “rich”.
Yep. And worse yet, the truly rich don’t buy houses.
So here is a question? Yesterday morning I had a conversation with a mortgage broker friend and talk turned to what tax increases were likely for 2013. He stated that if you sell your home in 2013 that you will get taxed on the money from the sale. According to him a tax will be added based on the new health care reg’s and could be up to $15K. Now if that is true would that also apply to the windfall profit from the short sale of a house?
I’m sure it would. There are probably lots of hidden costs, taxes and flim-flams in a Democrat-sponsored bill passed on Christmas Recess with procedural vote to by-pass the Republican opposition that is some 2900 pages long, that according to the Leader of House, we must “pass the bill to know what is in it”.
Now, that’s leadership you just can’t buy.
Oh, wait.
According to him a tax will be added based on the new health care reg’s and could be up to $15K.”
not true it depends on all your income besides after 2 years you can keep 250K single and 500K married tax free on a sale of a primary home
WASHINGTON — Designed to boost home ownership, the mortgage interest deduction is one of the most popular provisions of the tax code. But Internal Revenue Service data show that only 25 percent of tax filers claim it.”
yea we have to get those guys. tax breaks should only be reserved for the 1%
Thus God’s will is made plain
The MID is a tax giveaway to wealthy homeowners in Blue States like HI, CA and NY. I’m surprised Red State Congressmen don’t point this out and toss it over the proverbial ‘fiscal cliff.’
Maybe because there are a lot of wealthy Republicans in the blue states who take advantage of it?
Or because their bankster overlords are telling them to not touch the MID?
What kind of people would go to BigBoxMart to take out a mortgage? I’m thinking trailer trash and similar riff-raff.
Al Lewis
Dec. 5, 2012, 11:14 a.m. EST
Wal-Mart mortgages could fuel the next bubble
Commentary: We want convenience, but what would it cost us?
DENVER (MarketWatch) —Too bad Wal-Mart doesn’t offer mortgages.
If you insist on getting a mortgage from a big-box retailer, you have to go to Costco, which began offering them last April in a partnership with a New Jersey community bank, First Choice Bank.
Nevertheless, one out of three people would consider taking out a mortgage at Wal-Mart, according to a survey released Monday by Carlisle & Gallagher Consulting Group.
…
How many bailouts did Wal-Mart and Costco take under obama?
I would trust a Wal-Mart over a JPM or GS any day of the week.
You might have a point.
And now for one of my hypocritical true confessions: When and if I ever again shop for a mortgage, I will be sure to check out whether Costco offers any special deals for executive members.
That would be rather dumb of you since Wal-Mart would be originating the loans and then selling them to JPM or GS or some other investment bank to be securitized into bonds. The people would be located in a Wal-Mart store, but the standards, such as they are, are set by the place that is going to buy them.
If Wal-Mart was going to keep the loans, then there would be quite and advantage. Assuming you use some sort of loyalty card and shop there regularly, Wal-Mart knows a lot about your buying habits and therefore your financial situation - do you run out of money at the end of the month/salary period, do you spend so much at Christmas that you don’t get it all paid down until May, and much, much more. But an investment bank doesn’t care about that information. The trust they set up is only going to have beneficial ownership of the loans for a short time since they will be selling the bonds pronto.
Not until we require the securitizer (or the originator, but securitizer is the deep pockets, originators can just close down and start with a new name and corporate shell) to keep a substantial chunk of the worst performing loans (I prefer 10%, but 5% will do) will the actual underwriting get back up to something reasonable.
“That would be rather dumb of you…”
Considering the source, I am going to assume that pejorative tone was aimed at a hypothetical Wal-Mart or Costco borrower, rather than targeted at any one poster.
Saying that a conditional behavior (trusting W-mart over an investment) is dumb is not the same as calling a person dumb. I explained why the behavior was dumb (because the loans end up in the same place and the investment bank would be the one to set the standards) and was careful to make the wording refer to the behavior, not the person.
because the loans end up in the same place and the investment bank would be the one to set the standards)”
I think they sell all these loans to ben bernake who promised to buy 40B a month And when they go bad we will all pay for them with higher taxes, reduced social security, etc.
I don’t know what standards Ben wants for stuffing FNMA with these loans ?
Polly, the QRM regulation was supposed to take care of that: 20% down, OR you keep 5%. I wonder what happened to that reg after the comment period.
Keeping 5% of each tranche is useless. Part of that 5% is from the least risky securities created out of the loan pool. They should have to keep the worst 5%. And the requirement should be there even if there is a down payment.
Polly, if Wal-Mart really tracked purchases as part of their underwriting, wouldn’t they conclude that 95% of their customer base shouldn’t buy a mortgage anyway?
I would trust a Wal-Mart over a JPM or GS any day of the week.
absolutely agree. why all the hatred and “distrust” of Walmart? I would trust them NOT to screw over their customers before I would trust “Big Bank”.
Wally-Mart does not necessarily “hate” their customers but they certainly sh*t on their employees. And YOU the taxpayer get to make up the difference of what Wally-Mart is not paying their employees by paying for their SNAP card, their Earned Income Tax Credit, their kids’ free school lunches, their Obama phones, etc…
Wally-Mart does not necessarily “hate” their customers but they certainly sh*t on their employees.
In other words, WalMart knows their customers really really well.
Their customers would much prefer to shop at a place with rock-bottom prices, rather than at a place with slightly higher prices that treats their employees better.
Proof: their customers continue to shop at WalMart, rather than places with higher prices and better-treated employees.
We vote with every dollar spent.
We shop at Wally-Mart too, can’t beat Wolf 7.62×39 rounds 20/box for $4.97
The point is that all the John Galt, invisible hand of free market, bootstrapping types don’t like to admit that Wal-Mart contributes to “socialism” by forcing the taxpayer to pick up the rest of what Wally-Mart employees don’t receive in pay and benefits.
And yes, Lucky Ducky will always choose to shop at Wally-Mart, or whatever Big Box has the cheapest food and Chinese plastic sh*t.
“Socially conscious” bedwetter libtard types like to think they’re better by shopping at Target, even though it’s essentially no different than Wally-Mart.
We shop at Wally-Mart too,
So you _like_ the fact that WalMart contributes to “socialism”, do ya?
Target doesn’t treat their employees any better than Walmart. My sister was treated very badly by that company. And she knows others that were, too. Target depends heavily on part-time, no-benefits employees.
More people would shop at Costco if they built more.
Thank you Middle Coaster. WalMart is no angel but they don’t do things much differently than any other retailer. Unless you’re management retail has always been bottom of the barrel pay and no bennies. The real problem is these people are stuck in those positions and never move into better paying industries. I moved beyond retail once I graduated college.
Are people stuck in retail because of educational requirements for other industries? Jobs that once only required a hs degree but now require for who knows what reason a college degree? If undergraduate education costs didn’t equal that of a home would they have been able to get that education? Or are they stuck because the industries they could have moved on to are now overseas? There are certainly many places we can point fingers.
Straight out of Idiocracy. Verbatim.
The 47%, the tattooed, obese, unwashed rabble deserve one-stop shopping for their Brawndo and their McMortgage. How uniquely American!
And you just know the mortgage these guys get will be of the low-downpayment, low-doc, downpayment-assisted, federally-guaranteed subslime variety…
Neck tattoos and such are very bad career moves, unless you’re a tattoo artist, athlete, musician, etc. Many people will likely realize this too late.
Neck tattoos and such are very bad career moves, unless you’re a tattoo artist, athlete, musician, etc. Many people will likely realize this too late.
I know some guys who work in software/gaming/high-tech that don’t appear to have suffered any career damage that I can discern…
I know a local dermatologist who does quite a bit of tattoo removal. It’s a VERY painful procedure.
I know some guys who work in software/gaming/high-tech that don’t appear to have suffered any career damage that I can discern…
Wait till he’s 50 when the reference will be completely gone and people will ask him what the heck “Gungham Style” means.
and people will ask him what the heck “Gungham Style” means.
LOL… That would be a pretty ridiculous thing to tattoo on oneself.
That would be a pretty ridiculous thing to tattoo on oneself.
Have you tried to read any 30-year-old tattoos lately?
It is too bad it is too late to get that law degree from Costco, if I ever have children, they could be a legacy. As far as the economics of getting a loan from Costco or just going to the big banks, I am not sure you can decide that without looking at the offer. The big banks because they would have no cost processing the loans, might just give Costco the ability to offer better terms to Costco customers than their own customers. It all depends on how cheaply Costco can process the loans, and how much the big banks want to avoid the brick and mortar and labor costs of processing the loans. Costco customers tend to be fairly smart so, Costco would know that many would not get their loans if they are more costly. After all the same argument could be made about gasoline since Costco does not own refineries and has to purchase gas from big dealers why isn’t it gasoline more expensive than gas stations serviced directly from the producers. CIBT, I think it is worth checking.
Years ago my employer wanted to switch our 401k to Costco, with lots of B shares and C shares etc. We on the committee raised a fuss, and the owners were shocked because they bought everything else there . But we held them off and before too long Costco went out of the 401k business.
“Costco does not own refineries and has to purchase gas from big dealers why isn’t it gasoline more expensive than gas stations serviced directly from the producers. CIBT, I think it is worth checking.”
There’s almost always a lineup for gas at the local Cosco. They do such a high volume, I’m guessing that makes up for it.
Or it’s a loss leader.
“Or it’s a loss leader.”
Or the cheap gas gets folks into the store, but I’ve found that not to be the case. We might get gas because we happen to be at the store, but not vice versa. Works for gas food marts, though.
“Or it’s a loss leader.”
Could be, but I almost never find myself lured into the store on the rare occasion I buy gas at Costco. I suppose for people who have to travel a great distance to get their cheap Costco gas, or who have a very high opportunity cost of shopping time (e.g. members of the Romney clan), your point might apply.
“As far as the economics of getting a loan from Costco or just going to the big banks, I am not sure you can decide that without looking at the offer.”
Spot on, Dan. Polly’s notions of economics are similar to that of many an attorney that I have to deal with: Often wrong, but nonetheless ridiculously overconfident about their opinions on economics.
Perhaps she thinks her experience working for Gollum gave her the equivalent of an economics degree…
The Daily Grind~
If you buy housing now, you’re going to lose money. Alot of money. DO NOT buy housing now.
DO NOT buy housing now.
But two days ago you said you’d buy a house right now, if only you could:
I bought housing in the last few years and am making a decent return on my investment. I am not getting rich, but it adds to my income and net worth. The work will allow me to be more comfortable in retirement. If inflation raises its ugly head, all my debt is fixed for the whole loan term at very low rates, so I have some protection against it. It all seems to be working out and I don’t need any appreciation to make a good return on my investment.
As I have said many times, if you can buy below reproduction cost, it is likely to be a good investment.
Only if it makes sense from a cash flow basis with ALL costs considered and appreciation NOT considered.
I can show you once beautiful mansions in Newark, Camden and Trenton that would cost $3 million to replace.
I would not buy them for $10,000.
Those reproduction costs do make me wonder! Materials seem to be pretty close to peak bubble time prices. If the hot air comes out of the commodities bubble, one would expect reproduction costs to collapse. Used houses would then be pressured to follow them down, wouldn’t they?
That inflation threat sure makes me wonder! Haven’t we just gone through the biggest multi decade inflation ever? Didn’t it hit a wall? Isn’t the Fed doing everything it can to keep it going and failing miserably? Aren’t people and companies deleveraging? Is inflation what you get during a deleveraging?
That whole fixed long term debt thing vs the skaky asset future would have me sleepless. Sure, Real Estate only goes up, but recently Real Estate mostly goes down. Telling other people they should buy now with whatever they can borrow seems kind of dangerous. The whole borrow your way to wealth thing seems to be a broken model…
“If the hot air comes out of the commodities bubble, one would expect reproduction costs to collapse. Used houses would then be pressured to follow them down, wouldn’t they?”
Aren’t Bernanke bucks flowing at sufficient velocity to offset your deflationary collapse scenario?
I expect we will find out before too long. Bernanke thought that all we needed was liquidity to keep the party going. Hot borrowed money chasing yeilds at near record commodity prices strikes me as a fragile situation. Supply and demand will eventually see a reckoning. Could take a while.
“Hot borrowed money chasing yeilds at near record commodity prices strikes me as a fragile situation.”
LOLzs
J-
My house is (and always has been) “valued” far below what it cost me to build in 1998-2000, but it’s still the best investment I ever made.
Appreciate the lovely review, btw. Thanks so much.
a.h.,
Yes, it has been my experience ever time that people who own and/or build their own homes typically find them to be the best investment they ever make. Economics is just one part of that scenario. If you built in So Cal in 1998-2000, you got in right at the tale of the 1990’s and the timing was favorable. It is my opinion the timing is similar today.
I do feel sorry for the innocent people who got caught up in the hype of 2005-7 and I could have joined them but for the HBB and Ben. You create value in real estate the day you “buy”…or in your case “build”. The rest is just management. That timing is what cost all the bubble buyers: they lost value the day they bought, they just did not know it until 5 years later.
I must say your book is a very well written account of your journey and I enjoyed it immensley. Thank you for sharing it with us. I downloaded it to my phone just before my wife and I left on a trip to Cabo and it was the perfect accompanyment to traveling to Mexico.
I would sometimes start laughing or sighing as I read parts that brought my own life into better focus, as your accounts unlocked new and important perspectives to my own journey. “Chomp, Chomp, Chomp” is one of the best reads I have had in years. Knowing you from the HBB made it just that much better.
I will write a book someday and send it to you for editing. It is going to be about the journey of busting up these damn mortgage fraud rings. I have a “shoe-box” full of notes and thoughts in my computer and when I can make time, perhaps in 2015, I will put it all on paper. I am still working on the story as I bust up my fifth group of mortgage fraudsters.
I thought I was done with this story, but some of these idiots are still playing games with our society, so I am pursuing them with renewed vigor. I finally have the attention of the lenders. The FBI is overwhelmed and many of the crimes have statutes of limitations weighing down their “cost benefit” to new pursuits. The lenders are finally starting to take restitution seriously and they are helping me make life miserable for these scammers.
When I get a draft of this story on paper I will send it your way!
Warmest regards, Jingle Male
“but it adds to my income and net worth”
Explain how buying and holding an asset that is falling in price adds to your “net worth”.
You mean net worth(less)… right?
Explain how buying and holding an asset that is falling in price adds to your “net worth”.
Depends whether the positive cash-flow exceeds the asset price declines or not…
Alpo,
I love how you hang on my every word.
I dislike the stench of mendacity.
Seems like you need a shower.
Have to agree with Alpha here.
That quote stuck out to me as well and I rarely hang on someone’s every word. I usually only have time to get the gist of what the discussions are at HBB during the day.
I remember reading and re-reading that quote and it struck me that there was no qualifying language attached to the “I would buy them in a second if they were on sale”.
Here’s a hint for you.
Current asking prices are inflated by 150%+. That’s not “on sale”.
That’s not “on sale”.
But that wasn’t your requirement. You said that:
I would buy in a second if they were for sale.
You, sir, are a house-hunter.
Of course we are. Why pay current inflated asking prices when you can buy later for 65% less?
Why pay current inflated asking prices when you can buy later for 65% less?
You’re the one ready and willing to buy right now, not me.
Of course we are. For 65% less.
You’re the one ready and willing to buy right now, not me.
Aren’t we all ready and willing to buy right now, at the right _price_. But from my perspective, we are currently far from that price, at least in my market. YMMV.
“I’ll buy _THAT_ for a DOLLAR!!!”
Yup. I’d start the VA loan paperwork right away if I could buy something I wanted for a price I could afford and that made me highly unlikely to lose money.
I’m a house hunter? But I already two houses? Huh?
Poor Alpo Slop. She can’t keep her stories straight.
And to quote one of the more prolific writers in HBB history;
It doesn’t change that you paid too much, that you are going to get the short end and that you are in denial. The HBB isn’t required to be a warm fuzzy place for you.
You paid too much. You’re in denial. You will not escape your losses.
Enjoy Alpo.
I’m a house hunter? But I already two houses? Huh?
I guess the other two are hovels, and you’re hoping for that dream, toe-tag house? I remember you screaming like a schoolgirl and demanding pictures when Jethro bought, so we know you can get quite excited about it. You just said last night you were ready to buy-now!- if they’d just put your dream houses on the market.
Sounds like the banksters have got you just where they want you- desperate, and ready to buy, buy, buy when those houses finally hit the market.
I would buy in a second if they were for sale.
The HBB isn’t required to be a warm fuzzy place for you.
Oh yeah, a quote from another recent house buyer. Seems like all the biggest bears are buying. What does that signify? That you’re getting left behind, RALiar?
You got suckered. You paid much. Victim.
PS….. Realtors Are Liars…. and so are you.
“If you buy housing now, you’re going to lose money. Alot of money. DO NOT buy housing now.”
Would you say that to the hippies in their $10,000 houses in A-slothton?
Alpha, I’d love a hint at the location of these pioneer settlements. I’d make a detour if I were driving past your city. Er, I mean loose collection of mud huts as that’s how we all live in flyover country.
Check yesterday’s bits, I responded.
If you’re curious, Jefferson Street is another up and coming area with some urban pioneering going on. It’s a little further along in development than the area I was talking about last night. This area is anchored by a new, pretty darn good, brewery: West 6th Brewery. There’s a map here,too:
http://www.westsixth.com/
Umm…you’re not coming to ’snap up’ properties, are you?
“…’snap up properties’…”
Why does this phrase always conjure up the visual of a pond full of voracious turtles?
visual of a pond full of voracious turtles?
In my visualization, “snapping up” is what swine do to whatever happens to be laying on the ground in front of them. It also involves a carnival barker encouraging them to take in more and faster, too.
grind, grind, grind, grind, grind, grind….
Don’t worry - I have no interest in being an absentee landlord.
Lemme know if you come through, maybe we can drink a brew in a pioneer settlement.
Short sales increase, benefitting banks and homeowners
“It’s also likely that banks are more reluctant to file a foreclosure, hoping to avoid years-long foreclosure proceedings in court.”
“Under the changes, borrowers who are current on their mortgage but suffer a hardship such as a death, divorce, (Ingrown toenail) or a job change requiring them to move more than 50 miles from their home can be qualified for a short sale by their loan servicers without additional approval from Fannie or Freddie.”
Posted: 5:00 a.m. Thursday, Dec. 6, 2012
By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
More Florida borrowers are short selling their homes without defaulting on their mortgages, a far-reaching change from days when stopping payments was the only sure-fire way to spur bank approval.
About 29 percent of all Florida home sales during late summer and early fall were short sales granted when the homeowner was not yet in foreclosure, according to a new RealtyTrac measure of non-distressed short sales. That’s an increase of 32 percent from the previous year.
In Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties, 21 percent of sales were of properties where the owner was not in foreclosure, but owed more to the bank than the home was worth — a 49 percent annual increase. The difference between the sale price and unpaid mortgage balance in South Florida was an average of $106,712.
Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac vice president, said this is a new trend that reflects recent federal changes that expand what can be considered a financial hardship and attempts to streamline the short sale process. It’s also likely that banks are more reluctant to file a foreclosure, hoping to avoid years-long foreclosure proceedings in court.
“We’re hearing a lot more about short sales happening outside of foreclosure,” Blomquist said. “Everyone is celebrating that foreclosures are down, which is good, but a lot of the reason for that is distressed homes are being disposed of further upstream.”
“The bottom line is banks are trying to remedy the number of foreclosures any way they can,” said Realtor Dean Hooker of Pompano Beach-based Southeast Realty. “It’s taken them four years to get to this position.”
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/business/short-sales-increase-benefitting-banks-and-homeown/nTNpp/ -
The ONLY person who loses is the TAXPAYER…
Short sales increase, benefitting banks and homeowners
Fannie and Freddie lose money on the short sales, not the taxpayer. Those are private companies with overpaid staff and heavily-bounsed CEOs, right?
“Fannie and Freddie lose money on the short sales, not the taxpayer.”
And just who backs up Fannie and Freddie? Last I heard the subsidy was a couple of hundred billion and rising all the time.
I thought the taxpayer guaranteed the principle on the loans, through the federal Treasury?
Yea, we all heard the “private company” crap when we knew they were grossly over-extending in the lending game, but, as we suspected, Uncle Sugar decided that it wasn’t really “private equity”, after all. The TAXPAYERS should pick up their losses and help keep them working. If I recall we were talking something like 350 billion dollars.
I don’t remember. But the numbers don’t matter because the FED will print whatever money is needed to cover any shortfalls.
No need to “save” anymore. Your money has no investment value. WE all get to compete with the FED for returns of ZERO.
Have you trademarked “Steaming Pile Of Human Feces?”
Apple is going to start making, er, assembling, Macs, um, I mean, a line of Macs, in the USA!
http://rockcenter.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/06/15708290-apple-ceo-tim-cook-announces-plans-to-manufacture-mac-computers-in-usa?lite
“Apple has taken a lot of heat over the past couple of years after a rash of suicides at plants in China run by Foxconn drew attention to working conditions at the world’s largest contract supplier. Apple and other manufacturers who have their gadgets produced by Foxconn were forced to defend production in China. Earlier this year, Apple hired the nonprofit Fair Labor Association to examine working conditions at Foxconn, which makes some of Apple’s most popular products: iPhones, iPods and iPads.
Given that, why doesn’t Apple leave China entirely and manufacture everything in the U.S.? ‘It’s not so much about price, it’s about the skills,’ Cook told Williams.
Echoing a theme stated by many other (unnamed) companies, Cook said he believes the U.S. education system is failing to produce enough people with the skills needed for modern manufacturing processes. He added, however, that he hopes the new Mac project will help spur others to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.”
#AppleSay Americans are to dumb to turn screws!
Or spell “too”! LOL!
I will put a case a beer that any new Apple manufacturing facility will be in a “right to work”, low tax and “red” state or that
A union goon state will offer such subsidies for the Apple plant that it will be nearly free to Apple to build it.
FWIW, there used to be a LOT of non union manufacturing in California, especially in the tech sector. I remember when HP made stuff at the Ranch Bernardo site. No one was union, but Asia was still way cheaper.
Sony had a plant across the street. Also non union, IIRC.
The only private sector union jobs I recall in San Diego were:
Grocery stores (WalMart cleaned their clocks)
Shipyards (a dying business)
DoD plants (many moved out of state)
“…Rancho Bernardo site…”
I have neighbors who walk to work there.
Rich Toscano worked there when I first met him for coffee at Starbucks about seven years ago…(he since moved on to offering financial advice full time).
I drive by those former HP and SONY manufacturing sites… all bulldozed dirt lots now. I know quite a few people who had great careers there.
With high tech having left San Diego, Defense Contractors leaving, Golf club makers moving to Mexico, the only sector left in San Diego is Biotech and hospitals… the tourism jobs don’t pay enough, I just don’t get it how San Diego home prices aren’t in a perpetual freefall… maybe its like Santa Barbara, no jobs and just a playground for the rich?
Developers seem to do well here and have an “in” politically. The Navy is keeping the city afloat I think, employing thousands… even though the tax payer would get more for their money elsewhere… Navy housing allowances keep landlords rents floored since they are tied to the cost of living of the area.
And the red state Lucky Duckies will be happy to work for FoxConn USA for $12/hour when the only alternative is working for Wally-Mart for $8/hour (and getting SNAP cards and Earned Income Tax Credits that *YOU* pay for).
And the creative minds who design Apple products will remain in blue state, union goon, bankrupt, overrun with illegals, Taxifornia
Apple II were built in Carrollton Texas.
I call BS. Come on Mr. Cook. Tell us what “education” that they are getting in China that is not offered in the US. Tells us what those magic “skills” that the Chinese have that an Americans don’t have, or somehow can’t learn in a couple years. Are the Chinese smarter? At least when I was in grad school, the smart Chinese were not sticking around at Foxconn. They were coming to… you guessed it, the supposedly failing US education system.
If Apple offers even moderate pay ($40-50K?) for these supposedly high skills, students will knock down the doors to take classes and apply for jobs. This is precisely what happened in the 90’s.
I suspect that those “skills” have more to do with willingness to live in dorms, and government allowances to dump waste in the local rivers and atmosphere, than with education.
I suspect that those “skills” have more to do with willingness to live in dorms, and government allowances to dump waste in the local rivers and atmosphere, than with education.
Exactly. The ’skill’ of living like a third worlder.
I think Cook is out of his mind trying to prove Outsourcing was right by blaming it on Americans. He has to understand that an employee needs some money here to survive with high insurance costs, rents and Cost of living. I don’t think our education system is bad especially when most universities have around 50% Chinese studying here.
Blaming it on Americans or US education system is nonsense. There is room for improvement, yes. We can get better but Apple didn’t move jobs because we are incompetent but because they want to hire slaves at peanut wages. Same story with IT outsourcing in India. IBM is cutting almost all its workforce in US and has so far hired 120,000 people in India. Is IBM still a US company?
Maybe this is a dumb question, but why not include tax breaks for businesses that offshore jobs in the same breath as tax breaks like the MID?
If everyone is so concerned with the health of the economy, why then not discuss the incentives that take manufacturing jobs offshore? In my mind, onshoring jobs would do a hell of a lot more for the economy than eliminating the MID.
Unless of course, the overall health of the economy isn’t the goal to begin with.
The Democrats were WAAAAYYYYYY ahead of you.
The Democrats — concerned about the health of the economy — already VOTED to do exactly what you’re suggesting.
In September 2010, at the behest of President Obama, Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) introduced a bill to remove the tax breaks for offshorers, and transfer those tax savings to small onshore businesses.
THE REPUBLICANS FILIBUSTERED IT.
The bill is S.3816, if you don’t believe me.
Regardless of what was, why isn’t this being put back on the table if the health of the economy is paramount?
Because the republicans will fillibuster it again?
Because as lovely as it is that the Dems tried it, it is an essentially unenforceable rule. There aren’t special deductions for the business costs of off-shoring. There are deductions for all business costs. To get rid of the deductions for off-shoring, you have to decide exactly what general business expenses to disallow. What if they don’t fire any US employees but just start operations overseas and don’t replace US employees as they leave? What if they make life miserable for the US employees so they leave faster? What if they fire the US employees, but wait until the overseas operations have been going for 5 years, or three years, or one year? Do they have to go back and restate their taxes for those years? What if that tax year is closed (older than three years)? And what if the foreign country where you are selling requires that some of the operations be in that country to have access to their markets? Are you going to disallow the costs of getting access to an entire country’s market? Really?
Welcome to the tax attorney full-employment act of 2013. Laws don’t make a difference unless you have a chance of enforcing them fairly. And whether you believe it or not, most law makers are aware that making the rules impossible to follow is a bad idea.
Besides, the discussions are primarily about individual income taxes. That is complicated enough. Completely revising the business income tax is a whole different discussion.
At least when I was in grad school, the smart Chinese were not sticking around at Foxconn. They were coming to… you guessed it, the supposedly failing US education system.
Another exodus is underway from Israel. Something about not wanting to live in an endless war zone.
The smart people are bailing out and coming…
…here.
Being a former semi-academe, that exodus from the Middle East started decades ago. And not just from Israel.
There are a lot of Lebanese immigrants in Mexico. Billionaire Carlos Slim Helu comes from such a family.
Longer than that, there is a book in the Bible called ‘Exodus’.
If only we could lure our morons into emigrating.
Very difficult when many of them have never been outside of the U.S.
Not to mention that no one would take them. Other countries try to protect their job bases. Unskilled immigrants are typically unwelcome.
Maybe the thing to do is egg on the secessionists.
Tell us what “education” that they are getting in China that is not offered in the US.
In China, they are thoroughly educated in how utterly, instantly replaceable they are.
Folks here still haven’t been larned (sic) that.
It’s 50/50. Education is a problem and Americans just don’t give a shit. Have you not seen Jersey Shore or Honey boo Boo. American youth is being taught pop culture to be lazy and take other “rich” people’s money.
“Idiocracy” isn’t fiction, it’s a documentary
..and it’s not the future, it’s now.
I suspect that those “skills” have more to do with willingness to live in dorms, and government allowances to dump waste in the local rivers and atmosphere, than with education.
The problem is you don’t need a college-educated workforce to perform hi-tech manufacturing and assembly. Our entire public education system is geared towards college prep. Those that graduate high school and don’t go to college, for the most part, are not prepared for the technical aspects high-tech manufacturing or much of anything else, trade-wise.
This isn’t about American workers being overpaid vs. their Chinese counterparts, it is about a gap in the pay vs. performance curve of high school graduates vs. college graduates. College grads are over-educated and over-indebted for these jobs and high school grads aren’t prepared at all.
We need to look at Germany and the two tiered approach to education they use as an example to follow…
Tell us what “education” that they are getting in China that is not offered in the US.
How about basic literacy and mathematics as a start? Kind of hard to read instructions or assembly plans when you don’t have a solid grasp of reading and math.
http://micgadget.com/29723/the-undercover-report-on-how-the-new-iphone-5-is-made-inside-foxconn-factory/
I don’t see too much about readin’ and cipherin’ in this here report about iPhone 5 manufacture.
Indeed. Most Mexicans who work at Maquiladoras doing similar work have at most a 6th grade education.
“…..entire education system is geared toward college prep….”
It’s been that way for a long time. It’s because no one respects anyone who isn’t a college grad, especially in pay.
The screw jobs that college grads are getting now, started happening to the blue collar type work force back in the 1980s.
The Masters of the Universe lump all of us wretched refuse types together, and think we are interchangable. I’ve found that the suits for the most part have NO CLUE into what my job entails.
Pay wise, here in the USA, airplane mechanics are lumped together with lawnmower mechanics.
In China, an aircraft mech is a four year bachelor’s degree program……given my additional experience and training, I’d probably have a Doctorate over there.
X-GSfixr = Aerospace Proctologist
Fixr, have you ever looked into relocating ‘offshore’ to work on airplanes? There may be an airline that values experience and skills, more than you have found at home.
If students took all the math and science that was recommended for college prep in my day (and probably still) they would be well prepared for a good technical trade school.
But usually students take trig calc chem physics etc only when they know they’re going on to higher ed.
I know several pilots pulling down $150K plus/year, flying business jets in China.
Experienced maintenance types can make $100K plus. If you know someone over there, which I don’t.
I could make a lot more money in SoCal or in the Northeast too, but I don’t know too many people up there, either.
I live out in BFE, where there has been no “recovery” from the 2008 recession, especially in the bizjet flying business.
Ironically, my training/experience is in stuff that is “newer” than what the airline guys work on. Especially the avionics stuff. My skill set doesn’t transfer.
Besides, the pay/bennies in the airline biz are even crappier. The airlines are working 24/7/365 to transfer as much work as possible to Central American/Asian/US based-contract Repair Stations, where a mechanic’s certificate is optional, there’s little/no FAA oversight, and they pay scale starts at $12/hr.
Airlines don’t want to own or maintain airplanes anymore. The new paradigm is to lease a new airplane from a leasing company (GE Capital, ILFC), and dump it when major inspections come due.
The leasing company then finds some bottom feeder shop to do the required inspections, then it goes back into the lease pool, to be leased out again.
Airlines don’t want to own or maintain airplanes anymore. The new paradigm is to lease a new airplane from a leasing company (GE Capital, ILFC), and dump it when major inspections come due.”
my brother works for AIG in the leasing business he travels all over the world inspecting airplanes
The new paradigm is to lease a new airplane from a leasing company (GE Capital, ILFC), and dump it when major inspections come due.”
Wouldn’t the leasing companies be wise to this, and make allowances for it in their lease rates?
You’re crazy. The US high schools needs more Glee-like classes, football games and religious studies.
I think my prior post about “religion studies” failed, so I will simply put in a link about “Darwinism”, the religion of the Left, and why despite it’s rejection by the majority of the public, it is taught as “settle science”:
http://www.garynorth.com/public/10396.cfm
Post entitled: Darwinism, Badges and Guns.
So the question is: Why all the animosity toward Wal mart and the worshipful attitude toward Apple??
They are using US as customers and outsourcing all the “jobs”. I don’t get it.
So the question is: Why all the animosity toward Wal mart and the worshipful attitude toward Apple??
Because Limousine Liberals don’t shop at Walmart, that is for the lower classes. They do shop at and purchase Apple products, so Apple must be different…
Same question could be asked of designer brands like Coach. You think those handbags or other luxury goods are manufactured in the first world? Made in China… but you don’t see limousine liberals knocking Coach, unless it’s in favor of a more expensive brand like Louis Vuitton…
When WalMart comes to a town, they put many locally owned businesses out of business. That’s probably what makes liberals dislike WalMart more than Apple, which doesn’t have that same effect when they open a store.
Plus, Walmart is notorious for mistreating their employees, Apple may also mistreat their Foxconn employes, but not those in the US.
Cultural perceptions, whether accurate or not.
Apple is seen as cool, young, urban, coastal, hipster.
Wally-Mart as seen as poor, obese, flyover, white trash.
All you have to say is:
Apple = coastal
Walmart = flyover
The rest gets added automatically by those who live to look down on others.
We are flyover. And we are the fittest state in USA.
The fatties are mostly in flyover Midwest and South.
Don’t start in with a bunch of irrelevant facts. Coastal = cool, flyover = lame. You’ll be fat soon enough.
You’ll be fat soon enough
Trailer trash!
Yup.
#AppleSay Americans are to dumb to turn screws!
I’ve worked in many factories. Many (not all) really are too dumb to turn screws. Or even push a button for that matter.
Let alone spell “quality control.”
Maybe Americans are just too FAT to do delicate work, Chinese people are small and thin just the right size for the screws and the installation of glass to within a millimeter.
Dec. 3, 2012, 6:51 a.m. EST
How foreclosure backlogs could hurt home buyers
Slow processing could keep prices down and mortgage rates up
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Backlogs in foreclosure processing are causing delays in home-price improvement and could wind up affecting the cost of a mortgage.
The situation appears worst in New York, where it takes an average of nearly three years — 1,072 days, to be exact — for a home to go through the foreclosure process. It’s not much better in New Jersey, where it took an average of 931 days to foreclose on a home in the third quarter, according to statistics from RealtyTrac. Or in Florida, where it took about 858 days. See: How long a foreclosure takes in your state
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-foreclosure-backlogs-could-hurt-home-buyers-2012-12-03 - 141k
“… home price improvement …”
Lol. Intetesting word, “improvement”.
Does a rising price of, say, food “improve” the price of food? Maybe if you are a farmer but not necessairly if you are a consumer.
No end to the bubble until the MSM stops using language that panders to real estate investors…
The continuing adventures of a 1%er who left America to live in a low-tax country:
John McAfee arrested in Guatemala
BBCNews
John McAfee, the founder of anti-virus software maker McAfee, has been arrested in Guatemala, accused of entering the country illegally.
He crossed the border to seek political asylum, having been on the run in Belize where police are investigating the death of his neighbour.
Belize officials said the software pioneer was a “person of interest” in the murder of Florida businessman Gregory Faull on 11 November.
Mr McAfee has protested his innocence.
He says on his blog that he has been “harassed” by police, and that this was the reason he fled Belize. There is no international arrest warrant for multi-millionaire fugitive.
Appearing in public for the first time in weeks on Tuesday, Mr McAfee and his lawyer had said he would petition the Guatemalan government to stay there.
“Belize does not have a good track record of providing safety when they ask to question you. I felt much more secure crossing the border,” said Mr McAfee.
He moved to Belize about three years ago seeking lower taxes and has lived in semi-seclusion on a heavily guarded compound until recently.
But their taxes are so low!
He should still be thankful that he’s not on the “kill list” and drones are not chasing him.
Wait a sec…
Other countries ARREST illegal immigrants and put them in jail???
apparently guatamelans are a bunch of racist.
Other countries ARREST illegal immigrants and put them in jail???
Where do you get that? He was there legally- to avoid our taxes- and then he freaked out because you ‘can’t trust their police’, when he was wanted for questioning in a death.
He was arrested in Guatemala, which he entered illegally.
+1
McAfee was seeking a better life.
Because living in a heavily guarded compound is every 1%er’s dream!
I heard on NPR, his compound was filled with young female hookers and the police suspected he had a meth lab in the compound. He was living the 1% lifestyle, while the 1% of motorcycle clubs.
P.s. with all the hookers, I hope he virus protection.
That is, I hope he had virus protection. Although since he may be quarantined shortly, maybe it is not a major problem.
LOL, Dan!
Same here, Dan. +1
“…young female hookers…virus protection…”
Perhaps virus worries explain the young hookers, as the older hookers are less desirable, and have likely faced more virus exposure risk.
Having lost almost all of his treasure before moving to Belize, why would taxes be of much interest to him at all?
Personally, I’d rather pay taxes than armed guards.
My understanding of it was he fled into Guatemala illegally. He was a resident of Belize.
I spent a week in San Pedro in the 90’s. It was safe then.
Having lost almost all of his treasure before moving to Belize, why would taxes be of much interest to him at all?
He must have had some money left- he bought the Belize coast guard a million dollar boat, donated heavily to the local cops, traveled with armed bodyguards, tipped lavishly, had ‘lots’ of women flown in, yadda, yadda.
I’m thinking that perhaps he moved to Belize to escape creditors.
The law is a creditor of sorts…
Personally, I’d rather pay taxes than armed guards.
Exactly. Taxes are the price of civilization. They don’t shouldn’t be confiscatory, but they’re not evil in themselves, as some seem to believe. They’re the price of keeping evil at bay. Capable of being abused, certainly, but necessary nonetheless.
Commie talk!
I have asked this question without EVER getting a straight answer.
At what point between 0% and 100% taxation do you become a slave?
Never.
However, if you take a $5 hr job because you just don’t have any skill, you are a slave.
I was thinking about this myself earlier today. What did serfs pay, about 10% to the church and 10% to their human lord? So at what point do you move to being more of a slave than a free person. It seems once you cross the 50% level, you are more of a slave than a free person. While not many meet that level just on state and federal income taxes and social security, when you start throwing in property (everyone pays even renters) and sales taxes etc. many of us give more than 50% of our labor to the governments , so we are more slave than free.
What did serfs pay, about 10% to the church and 10% to their human lord? Their most basic limitation was not being able to leave their land without permission from the landowner.
At what point between 0% and 100% taxation do you become a slave?
100%, obviously. A slave doesn’t get to keep any of their earnings.
Is this a trick question?
It’s a trick question.
Slaves paid more than 100%. They paid not only with themselves but their kids too.
So if 99% of your labor goes to another you are not a slave. Or to answer another poster if you have the illusion of freedom since you can move, you are not serf? If the government will allow you to move but will take virtually all the fruits of your labor wherever you work, how are you not worse off than a serf? After a while the system could only be supported by walling you in, just like East German’s wall, with guards and mines or by making the system worldwide.
What the PTB want is a system of world government where no country will be a place for a free person to be able to insist on his or her full payment for labor. We will all be serfs or slaves except for the .01%. I think that the war on millionaires or even people earning $250,000 a year is just a way to concentrate even more wealth in the hands of the few. Just as small banks needed to be crushed to allow the big banks maximum profits, many of these so called bank reforms in the last four years just make it too costly for the small banks to function and concentrate banking in even fewer hands. Small and not large business is the target of government, despite it being large business that has caused and support the globalization that has destroyed the U.S. middle class.
The only thing lacking for world government is a funding source and I think that a carbon tax is the designated tax despite it becoming increasing clear that CO2 has not caused or at least been a significant cause of the recent warming.
All you “Freedom Lovers” are more than welcome to move your azzes anywhere in the world (Somalia? Sheridan, Wyoming? Lubbock, Texas?), and stop paying taxes. As long as you don’t try to use/benefit from services provided by taxes on us socialists.
I actually try to post a long explanation of my views but it seems to have not posted. If it does not post today, if I have time I will try to recreate it. But I think that the war on the millionaires (and less) is just a way for the billionaires to concentrate more wealth.
If we need more taxes, I suggest the Buffett tax. Warren has just allowed his capital to increase year after year and since he rarely sells any stock there are no capital gains to tax so why does he care about higher income taxes or even higher capital gains taxes. I suggest a billionaire wealth tax instead of raising the income tax rates on people making more than $250,000, say 5% on all amounts over one billion. We can get the money moving and avoid the real concentration of wealth. We risk losing billionaires but it would be funny to see how quickly he would leave.
The neighbor who was killed complained about McAfee’s seven fierce dogs. And I’ll bet that neighbor was tired of being barked at whenever those dogs saw, heard, or smelled him.
Barking. It wears you down after a while. And heaven forbid if you should try to talk to the dog owner neighbor about the problem You’d have better success talking to a brick wall.
Which is why this is one of my all-time favorite websites:
http://www.barkingdogs.net
Benadryl in a hot dog….
McAfee is a drug addict loser who’s software is, was and always will be crap.
Well no wonder some guys are having a hard time finding a date.
Hundreds line up for free sex toys at South End giveaway
Posted by Jeremy C. Fox
December 3, 2012 06:56 PM
By Jeremy C. Fox, Town Correspondent
Hundreds lined up outside the Cyclorama at the Boston Center for the Arts on Monday to get free vibrators from Trojan Vibrations.
The condom and sex-toy manufacturer hit a roadblock in October when it initially inquired about a holding a giveaway on City Hall Plaza. But the event in Boston’s South End seemed to go smoothly, despite lines that at one point snaked down Tremont Street and onto Clarendon Street.
“After today, Boston should be a happier place, with less honking, less pushing, less rudeness,” said Maureen Mansfield, who came to the giveaway with her husband.
“A friend called me, and he said he could not leave his day job, and he said I should stop by and pick this up,” Mansfield said, holding up her Trojan Pulse model. “[He said it] would be a great deal.”
The giveaway drew men and women of many ages and many backgrounds, though it was restricted to those 18 and up. Trojan representatives checked IDs at the door and again inside before handing over the free goods.
At the younger end of the spectrum was a running club made up of male Boston College students, who jogged down to the South End in T-shirts and running shorts. Eric Johnson, 19, said the young men were motivated by curiosity.
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[jsUKTmh] (Eric`s father must be proud) [jsUKTmh]
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“We just heard about it on the radio, and we just wanted to see what it was all about,” Johnson said.
Trojan has previously distributed the free products in New York City, Washington D.C., and Chicago, the statement said.
In Manhattan last summer, city officials initially blocked a planned giveaway, saying Trojan didn’t have all the proper permits. But after securing the necessary paperwork, the company went on to hand out a reported 4,000 vibrators in the Meatpacking District.
In Boston, the long line seemed to indicate that many locals were comfortable taking the free devices home, and at least one recipient spied a familiar face in the crowd.
“I just saw that they were giving them out, and so I figured that I’d come by,” said Stan Marmysh, 26. “Actually, I ran into my roommate, who grabbed one.”
http://www.boston.com/yourtown/news/south_end/2012/12/hundreds_line_up_for_free_
hand out a reported 4,000 vibrators in the Meatpacking District
Must…resist…easy joke…
“No wonder some guys are having a hard time finding a date.”
An enterprising guy would show up at this place and had out his phone number to the chicks who also have an interest in showing up.
had out = hand out
I’d want a look at the chicks who lined up before agreeing with you.
I doubt that your spouse would allow it.
Looking is healthy. It’s anything beyond looking which is not allowed…
if looking healthy i should live till i’m 100.
if looking IS healthy i meant.
naked
If naked is healthy, I’ll live to be an hundred.
Just remember no one wants to see a naked one hundred year old person.
ust remember no one wants to see a naked one hundred year old person.
I think that applies to most people who are 30 and older.
I don’t care, it’s my life that is at stake.
I don’t care, it’s my life that is at stake.
LOL…
Here’s a tax revenue source that we can all agree with, maybe?
Tax the Traders! It Would Solve Economic Crisis and Stop Reckless Trading.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/spitzer/2012/12/03/tax_financial_transactions_solve_debt_crisis_and_stop_reckless_trading.html?wpisrc=obinsite
Here is the idea: A tax of less than half a percent on every $100 of stock sales or sales of other financial instruments including bonds, derivatives, and options. The tax could raise anywhere from $170 billion to $350 billion per year depending how it was applied. Extend that over 10 years, and we are raising almost what the White House and Republicans agree needs to be raised in order to accomplish the objectives of a grand bargain.
But there is an added benefit here: Trading in the equity and debt markets has gone wild over the past few years. High-speed trading and speculation have overtaken the economically legitimate reasons for our desire to have highly liquid markets: the capacity to raise capital and then allocate it efficiently among sectors and companies. The trading that has emerged over the past few years is not serving that purpose—it is a casino enterprise driven by hidden pools and computer algorithms that do not seek to hold capital for longer than an instant.
To the extent that a financial-transfer tax drove some of those trading practices out of the marketplace, that would be another good outcome.
We are all used to paying a sales tax when we buy things—almost 9 percent here in New York City. The application of this concept to the financial sector could solve our need for revenue, bring some sanity back into the financial sector, and give us a way to raise the revenue we need to run the government in a fiscally responsible way.
I agree.
If coupled with real spending cuts.
If coupled with real spending cuts.
What if we could fully fund government- running no deficits, and paying down our debt, just by rejiggering our current tax code (ending most loopholes, paying a few points more, adding a few new taxes like this one on financial transactions)?
Could we keep current spending levels?
TPTB are on the line: they say to shut your dirty hippie mouth before the blades come out.
Add in single-payer healthcare, raise (or donut-hole) the SS salary limit, rejigger to harsher punishment for IP, pass a few incentives to bring jobs back to the US and/or incentives to keep one spouse home with the kids, and yes, I think you could get by without running a deficit.
And another, this time my own:
Double the taxes on all federal government workers (including sub contractors) - and no one else.
Meanwhile, no pay increases for the same for at least 10 years.
Our private sector, for profit, invisible hand of free market, bootstrapping, contractor to the Pentagon just hired three more people. And it’s a very small contract, in a dusty corner of the Military Industrial Complex which shall remained unnamed, so hiring three is a 10% increase in FTE headcount.
And you will *NOT* double our taxes! You will pay. And pay and pay and pay and pay and pay. The invisible army of government contractors will never stop growing!
Here’s a tax revenue source that we can all agree with, maybe?
LOVE it. Would gladly pay it myself, too.
This would certainly put those HFT on a more level playing field…
It would address that problem very neatly.
Couple sues condo HOA, alleging sex-offender ban violates 14th amendment
A married couple filed a federal suit on Nov. 20 against a condominium homeowners association, alleging that the association violated the couple’s 14th amendment rights by barring sex offenders from living in its complex.
In their complaint in Theodore Whipple, et al v. Valley View Village Condominium Homeowners Association in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas in Austin, the couple states that Theodore Whipple, the husband and one of the two plaintiffs, has been convicted and is registered as a sex offender based on an offense that occurred 20 years ago.
The complaint alleges the homeowners association posted a notice on the couple’s door on Sept. 18, “announcing for the first time that registered sex offenders are not allowed to live in the condominium.” The complaint alleges that, on or around that day, Whipple, having been released from prison, began moving into an apartment in the complex. Also around that same time, the complaint alleges, the homeowners association’s board passed a rule attempting “to deny residence to all persons who are required to register with the Texas Sex Offender Registry, on any property within Valley View within 2000 feet of any location at which children congregate.” The complaint alleges the newly passed rule “effectively denies all registered sex offenders, regardless of their risk level, the right to reside within Valley View.”
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If the HOA wins, I can see many HOAs across the country trying to expand regulation and their power. I already think some of the stuff they do is excessive, so I can’t imagine what some crazy board members will try to do.
“sex offender” is one of those convictions that often depends on how much money a person has to defend themselves.
Therefore, I would not depend on any “sex offender registry” to alert me to those type of criminals living near me.
The ones on the list are only the ones who get caught.
Its not like they are presidents of universities or anything…
Or football coaches of universities or Catholic priests…
The ones on the list are only the ones who get caught ??
Exactly….And what percentage get caught ?? So, your neighbor next door that you think is a great guy could be one…Typical branding that goes on with our federal laws….
Much like hate crime laws, they go beyond common sense.
true eco when was the last time you heard a black get charged with a hate crime..
It just staggers the mind, why everyone hates paying out money BEFORE a lawsuit….
The HOA could have said we’d like to keep this quiet and will return your deposit and rent and pay you to move somewhere else.
Control freaks have no sense of propriety.
…or of proportion.
WSJ - Fund Managers Lift Results With Timely Trading Sprees:
“The stock of Iridex Corp, a maker of lasers used to treat visual ailments, had been hovering around $3.43 all day on June 29. At 3:55pm, five minutes before the market close, it took off.
It moved to $3.65, then $3.80. Less than half a second before the trading day and calendar quarter ended, Iridex jumped 4% to $4.17, capping a nearly 22% rise for the day.
The next trading day, July 2, Iridex dropped 10% — and didn’t hit $4 again until late October.
What happened to Iridex isn’t unusual. A Wall Street Journal analysis of daily trading in roughly 10,000 stocks since 2004 found that on the final trading day of each quarter, there was a sharp increase in the number of stocks that beat the market by at least five percentage points, then trailed it by three points or more the next trading day.
Regulators and market analysts have an explanation for the unusual pattern. They say some money managers wait until the waning moments of the quarter to bid aggressively for more shares of stocks they already own, which drives up the value of their entire position in the stock. That, in turn, boosts their performance at the very moment when they report results, making their funds look more appealing to potential investors. Even if the jump in stock price is only temporary, the managers can attract new money and earn higher fees.”
Invisible Hand Of Free Market at work, kidz.
Or as one HBB posters says, suck em in and shake em out.
Works for stocks, doesn’t work for most other things offered for sale.
Jump up the price of tomatos and you will sell less tomatos. Jump up the price of some stock and you will sell more stock.
Why is that? Because tomatos have a certain value in the the mind of the buyer, stocks, in many cases, don’t.
If there is no value in mind of the buyer then the buyer has to rely on price to establish this value. And if he does this, is he allows price to establish value, then a rise in price translates to a rise in value.
As observant folks have become acutely aware during the Greenspan-Bernanke credit bubble era, during a mania, demand for big-ticket assets, such as houses and corporations, becomes increasingly driven by asset price changes rather than by fundamentals. Thus demand increases as asset prices rise at an accelerating rate up until the point of market exhaustion. After the tipping point is passed, prices start to fall and continue to fall at an accelerating rate as demand erodes and eventually collapses, unless intervention is used to protect the value of the investments made by those who joined the Ownership Society during the mania years.
Why is that? Because tomatos have a certain value in the the mind of the buyer, stocks, in many cases, don’t.
I was thinking that you buy tomatoes to eat them. You buy stocks to hold and resell later.
Potential rental income (as an investment) sets a baseline value for real estate. There is some inherent value, which can be quantified, for the end user of the asset. When prices become decoupled from this value, that’s a sign of a bubble.
Likewise, stocks have a theoretical end-user. It’s the guy who holds the stock and collects the future dividends. This return on investment can be compared to returns on other assets - such as real-estate, savings accounts, etc. When the price of the stock becomes decoupled from the price which yields a reasonable return on investment (projecting future dividends), then - again - you’ve got a bubble. Of course, projecting the future dividend payouts, or even lifespan of the company over which these dividends might be paid, is something of a guessing game.
Yes. But many do create what they believe is an intrinsic value to the stock. Many companies will buy back their stock when it drops below intrinsic value. Of course, takeover artists always believe they can determine intrinsic value and attempt to buy the company below that level.
True ‘dat Dan. You can look at the assets a company owns (real estate, intellectual property, etc.) and determine the liquidation value of said company. If the stock falls below that price, then a well capitalized investor would be wise to buy the company and liquidate for a profit. Companies have other assets too - such as a customer base - but those are sometimes hard to capture value from in a liquidation… but they might play into an intrinsic value computation.
I look at this as being akin to replacement cost for real estate. It’s another way - other than imputed rental income - to estimate the “value” of the property.
Wall Street Job Reductions Seen Persisting After Citigroup Cuts
By Michael J. Moore, Christine Harper & Ambereen Choudhury - Dec 5, 2012 5:01 PM PT
Wall Street’s cost cuts and dismissals, which have helped erase more than 300,000 financial- industry jobs in the past two years, are far from over.
Citigroup Inc. (C)’s announcement yesterday of plans to eliminate 11,000 positions in units spanning equities trading to consumer banking is the latest sign of strain from a market slowdown, stiffer capital rules and weak economic growth. Lenders around the globe are likely to trim more jobs if revenue doesn’t rebound sharply next year, analysts and recruiters said.
Wall Street firms must slash pay and headcount and shed almost a third of their trading-business assets to earn even half the returns they once made, Sanford C. Bernstein analysts wrote in November.
“The knives are sharpened and ready,” said Jason Kennedy, chief executive officer of London-based search firm Kennedy Group. “These institutions are too big for the business they are generating but they are still quite bullish that the market will return by mid-2013. Unless the markets picks up, there will be more cuts in the first half.”
…
HA! We posted the same article. And speaking of “knives sharpened and ready”, the only ones getting stabbed are cab drivers. The rules are different for the Masters Of The Universe, y’know. Here’s a Wall Street PIG gettin’ jiggy wit’ it, doing God’s work:
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-12/morgan-stanley-s-jennings-to-have-charges-dropped-police-say.html
Going to be a lot of unhappy Galts.
What other ways are available to earn $100K in tax-free income besides a short sale of one’s home?
Short Sales of Homes Surge as Tax Break to Expire: Mortgages
By Kathleen M. Howley - Dec 6, 2012 6:19 AM PT
Homeowners and banks are accelerating sales of properties for less than the amount owed as a U.S. law that gives them a tax break expires at the end of the year.
The transactions, known as short sales, increased by 35 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, while sales of bank-owned homes dropped 20 percent, according to a report today by mortgage data seller Renwood RealtyTrac LLC. Together, they accounted for 41.5 percent of home purchases in the quarter.
Short sales have accounted for as many as 1.1 million transactions since 2009, helping to reduce the inventory of homes owned by banks that can blight neighborhoods and flood the market. Barring a last-minute extension of the 2007 Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act, homeowners will be taxed on the forgiven principal. With Congress focused on the so-called fiscal cliff, federal spending cuts and tax-rate hikes set to kick in on Jan. 1, the law may not be extended, leading to a drop in short sales and a rise in foreclosures.
“If you’re struggling to pay your mortgage, it’s not likely you can afford an extra $25,000 or $35,000 tax bill to avoid foreclosure,” said Edward Mills, a financial policy analyst at FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia. “Mortgage forgiveness has become part of fiscal cliff politics.”
The Internal Revenue Service typically taxes forgiven debt as income to the debtor. For short sales, the average price tag was $94,896 below the mortgage on the property, according to the RealtyTrac report. Tacking that onto borrowers’ income would not only raise the amount of taxes due — it could push them into a more expensive tax bracket.
…
Is it pretty much a given that anyone taking more than $100K in hair-of-the-dog tax-free mortgage debt forgiveness income lived high-on-the-hog on home-equity ATM money during the bubble years?
As short-sale tax break nears end, pressure mounts on homeowners
By KIMBERLY MILLER
Palm Beach Post
The race is on to finalize short sales and seal the deal on mortgage reductions as the Dec. 31 expiration of a massive tax break for struggling homeowners looms.
Since 2007, homeowners whose banks have forgiven unpaid mortgage debt after a short sale, principal reduction or foreclosure have not been required to count that money as income on their tax returns.
But the sunset of the federal Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act means borrowers, who have been spared tens of thousands of dollars depending on the amount forgiven and their tax bracket, may be faced with whopping IRS bills after losing their home.
Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi is leading a group of attorneys general from around the country in lobbying for an extension of the act. In a Nov. 20 letter to lawmakers, Bondi and Connecticut Attorney General George Jepsen said allowing the tax break to expire would dilute the $25 billion mortgage settlement made with the nation’s five largest banks in March.
“Unless Congress acts, all of the remaining debt relief to be provided in 2013 under the National Mortgage Settlement will likely be considered taxable income,” the letter said.
…
Titanic Warnings for Healthcare
Dan Munro
12/04/2012 @ 1:25AM
Whether it’s a shortage of physicians (expected to hit over 90,000 for all specialties by 2020) or the flood of newly insured (and aging) patients, there’s just not enough healthcare delivery to go around. The supply of physicians will clearly be insufficient at the same times that demand is going up – way up. Medical training is often a 10 year process so there is clearly no short term fix for increasing the number of physicians to meet demand.
Another key component of the ACA – the expansion of Medicaid – is both critical and equally cloudy. The Supreme Court ruling this last summer left the ACA’s Medicaid expansion intact in the law, but the practical effect of the Court’s decision makes the expansion optional for the states. With most state budgets severely constrained, it’s hard to see how this key component will be implemented.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/danmunro/2012/12/04/titanic-warnings-for-healthcare/ - 64k -
Why not import the cream of the crop from other countries? We do that in most other professions already. I’m sure foreign MD’s would jump at the chance to make major coin in the USA.
Why not import the cream of the crop from other countries ??
Thats exactly what will happen…
Why Not forgive doctors student loans a certain amount each year they work in high need areas. Certain specialties, certain low income areas etc.
No need to import workers
I’ve read that 85% of what doctors do can also be done by nurses.
Why this country puts so much emphasis on doctors is beyond me. Why not have more freestanding nurse practitioner offices?
Or clinics staffed by nurse practitioners and physician assistants? I’ve gone to a PA clinic here in Tucson, and I’ve been very satisfied with the care.
I guess the doctors don’t want the competition.
Not only GPs, surgeons are going to start to get squeezed by the rise of machines. I know they exist already, robotic surgical devices, that is likely to dramatically increase.
I spent the week at a simulation conference, it is startling what is on the horizon.
One scene in Idiocracy does come to mind.
Why not have more freestanding nurse practitioner offices?
That too.
I’ve read that 85% of what doctors do can also be done by nurses. Why this country puts so much emphasis on doctors is beyond me.
Because you can never know when that extra 15% becomes necessary and urgent.
Think of pregnancy — 90% need no real medical care at all, not even a midwife. Pregnant women who do wind up needing medical care may need it very much and on extremely short notice.
There was a time in US history when many states did not require that a physician be licensed in order to practice. Anyone could call himself one if he wanted & if he could persuade a patient to come in for service. Injured or wronged patients could sue for damages. Truly libertarian medical care. THAT didn’t work out very well.
FYI from Minyanville:
Jeff: American Tower (NYSE:AMT) and SBA Communications (NASDAQ:SBAC). I also like the obesity plays…
Todd: Hey, that would explain why we’re such good friends!
Jeff: …as the baby boomers age, these investments will pay off. There was a recent report from the Mayo Clinic that said if you smoke in your later years, you’re health-care costs will go up by 20% per year but if you’re obese, they’ll go up by 50% per year because of all the ancillary diseases like diabetes.
Todd: And the best way to play obesity, other than shorting Hostess?
Jeff: Davita (NYSE:DVA) and Dexcom (NASDAQ:DXCM).
American Medical Association is a union.
They restrict the number of doctors to keep earnings high.
The AMA is an influential lobbying group, not a union. Less than half of all M.D.s are members. Trying to unionize doctors is like trying to herd cats. Although, with the increasing number of physicians employed by large groups and hospital-based practices, unionization could take hold some day.
I once heard Andrew Weil say this about the AMA: “It’s a very ineffective organization. Whatever it opposes comes to pass.”
Above statement was made to a mostly student audience at the University of Arizona’s Gallagher Theater.
To me, the AMA is a bunch of reactionary old farts. I ought to look up the average age of its members.
And Weil is a practitioner-gone-quack.
If you want more doctors, simply lobby your state legislators to relax their standards. They are actually the ones who determine a doctor’s qualifications for practice in your state. I’m sure they will be eager to hear from you about that /not
Med school costs are another huge factor.
But the state’s trial lawyers would be ecstatic!
Bloomberg - Wall Street Job Reductions Seen Persisting After Citigroup Cuts:
“Wall Street’s cost cuts and dismissals, which have helped erase more than 300,000 financial-industry jobs in the past two years, are far from over.
Citigroup’s announcement yesterday of plans to eliminate 11,000 positions in units spanning equities trading to consumer banking is the latest sign of strain from a market slowdown, stiffer capital rules and weak economic growth. Lenders around the globe are likely to trim more jobs if revenue doesn’t rebound sharply next year, analysts and recruiters said.
Bank of America Corp. and HSBC Holdings Plc said they would cut 30,000 jobs, and UBS AG announced in October that it would fire 10,000 workers and largely exit fixed-income trading. Banks are under pressure to cut costs as they earn returns on equity that are lower than their cost of capital.
Cuts may continue as executives look to boost stock valuations amid poor revenue growth in capital-markets businesses. Investment-banking and trading revenue at the 10 largest global firms may climb 2.8 percent this year to $148 billion, 32 percent below 2009 and 13 percent below 2010, according to data from industry analytics firm Coalition Ltd.”
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of folks
The Wall Street PIGS are economic rapists and financial terrorists.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of folks
Except that it will be the little people, many who had no hand in the raping (say tellers, IT guys, etc.), who will get fired. The big boyz and girlz who orchestrated the pillaging will be just fine.
The tellers are debt pushers too. You can’t do a transaction with any TARP bank without them trying to cross-sell one of their financial “products”. And the IT guys make the evil matrix run. They are no different that the “thousand little Eichmanns” that Ward Churchill said were the Wall Street PIGS who got turned to bacon on 9/11 when Saddam Hussein flew his planes into World Trade Center.
LOL. This is a great post, The Squad is one of my favorite posters here.
Actually I thought it was in pretty bad taste.
pretty bad taste
9/11 was a JOKE
Just like how Flavor Flav rapped 911 is a joke. We are going to see Public Enemy at the Ogden Theatre this Saturday, with full original lineup of Chuck D, Flavor Flav, and Professor Griff.
Goon, i had to read your post like three times to filter out all the false flag references.. dude give me a break, its too early in the morning to be throwing curve balls..
false flag references
http://www.wtc7.net/
The big boyz and girlz who orchestrated the pillaging will be just fine.
For now.
Even if they lose their jobs, they’ll be fine, what with their multimillion dollar bonuses, golden parachutes and what not. The only thing that will get bruised are their egos.
Why are U.S. stock investors (supposedly) suddenly basing their investments on what is happening in the ECB? I thought what goes on across the pond stays across the pond, so far as Wall Street is concerned?
U.S. Stock Futures Fall on ECB Amid Budget Negotiations
By Rita Nazareth & Corinne Gretler - Dec 6, 2012 6:09 AM PT
U.S. stock futures fell, after yesterday’s gain in equities, as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said weak activity is expected to continue and investors watched for developments on budget talks.
…
I question the $100+ bn figure the REIC propagandists casually throw around when discussing the value of the MID to taxpayers. Did they remember to only consider the excess of Schedule A deductions over the standard deduction when coming up with this figure, or did they merely (and incorrectly) tally the nominal value of the MID for those who claim it?
Would this issue seem less confusing if most Americans weren’t terminally dumb at maths?
Will Mortgage Deduction Survive Fiscal Cliff?
BY Shushannah Walshe (@shushwalshe)
December 3, 2012
When politicians talk about closing tax loopholes, it seems like they’re targeting greedy corporations. But they’re also talking about Jaclyn Picarillo, 33, mom of two and American homeowner.
The home mortgage interest tax deduction is one of the biggest tax breaks available and it allows individuals to deduct the interest they pay to their mortgage company.
It has encouraged millions of Americans to become homeowners. But as lawmakers search for ways to control federal spending, reform the tax code and avoid the “fiscal cliff,” there’s a good chance they’ll take a look at the mortgage deduction. It’s worth more than $100 billion each year. All or part of that money could go a long way to finding the $1.6 trillion in additional tax revenue President Obama wants negotiators in Washington to agree to.
Picarillo, who lives with her husband, a three-year-old and a 15-month-old in Fairfield, Ct., a New York City suburb with both high housing costs and a high cost of living, bought her first home last year after previously renting. Picarillo and her husband decided to buy because they knew they were getting the tax break, and they used that money to renovate the home as well as make a down payment on a new car Picarillo needed.
Are Republicans Willing to Bend on No New Tax Pledge? Watch Video
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The mortgage deduction has been fiercely guarded until now, although it costs the government over $100 billion a year by most estimates, because of the sentimental attachment to it and the idea that it helps middle class families afford homes. While those who benefit from the deduction, including homeowners and people in the real estate industry, are passionate about keeping the deduction in place, others say it should be eliminated because it overwhelmingly helps the wealthy and those who can afford to buy a home already.
“By getting rid of the [home mortgage interest tax deduction], I’m more likely to hold on to my car longer and less likely to hire a builder to improve the house,” Picarillo said. “Why would you become a homeowner without it? There are so many worries with owning a home, many people might think it’s easier to rent.”
…
No defense contractor left behind
Bloomberg - Lockheed Said Close to Pentagon Backing for 29 F-35 Jets:
“Lockheed Martin Corp is close to winning Pentagon backing to build all 29 F-35 fighters planned for the coming fiscal year after three years of cutbacks in orders for the nation’s costliest weapon, U.S. officials said.
The Pentagon wants to provide stability after postponing orders for 425 planes since February 2010, according to the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing budget deliberations. While the Defense Department’s budget proposal for the year that begins next October isn’t final and some reduction in F-35 funding is still possible, no plan for major cuts is under consideration, the officials said.
Previous postponements of planes were based on development setbacks and rising costs for the F-35, now estimated to cost $395.7 billion for 2,443 planes, a 70 percent increase since 2001.
The plane, known as the Joint Strike Fighter, is “a very big growth priority” for Bethesda, Maryland based Lockheed Martin, the world’s biggest defense contractor, according to Marillyn Hewson, who will become chief executive officer in January.”
A few weeks ago Lockheed did a round of voluntary layoffs. This week they did another round, this time involuntary. I don’t have exact figures on how many employees that was.
The reality is, whether or not the BIG S occurs, layoffs are now a reality for the military industrial complex. Companies like Lockheed are not built to deal with this budgetary environment of firm-fixed price contracting, they are lugging around way too much overhead and they know it.
Time to get lean and mean. Expect many more layoffs to come from the big boys and they won’t be $15/hr jobs either, they will be a lot of $60-$120k earners with some pretty bleak prospects come 1 Jan. They way it was put to me is that if your program is in the red expect to see pink.
What effect will this have on housing?
is there even a role for a new manned fighterbomber anymore?
or is it just another jobs program like the space shuttle?
If I had to guess, based on the industry trends, this will be the last generation of manned fighter/bombers. The cost is prohibitive for production. The cost is prohibitive for training. The cost for drones is going down and the capabilities are rising. Also, the spectrum of drones and companies producing them is increasing.
Though, I’m not tied to tightly to Air doctrine. Ultimately, this is the driving factor.
I forgot to mention forward-looking at aircraft: There are physical limitations to manned flight. The physiology of the pilot will give out long before the airframe will fail. That is something to consider as well.
Oh and when you crash a fighter today there is the whole messy sending out the QRF to retrieve them and risks that go along with this activity that aren’t really a consideration with drones.
PVT. Joker: How can you shoot innocent women and children like that?
Helicopter gunner: It’s easy. You just don’t lead them as much. You see, anyone that runs, is V.C. Anyone that stands still is well disciplined V.C. Ain’t war hell?
they will be a lot of $60-$120k earners with some pretty bleak prospects come 1 Jan
I remember in the early 90s when the DoD contractors in San Diego had their mass layoffs. A lot of the fired had worked at places like General Dynamics their entire career and were virtually unemployable in the non DoD sector. I knew more than a few who switched careers (meaning they took on menial Lucky Ducky jobs).
History repeats itself.
GD better continue paying their attorney fees though (they run into the tens of millions for this firm alone)
I remember in the early 90s when the DoD contractors in San Diego had their mass layoffs.
Falling Down.
Great movie.
I had prescription glasses, very short hair and wore a short sleeved shirt to work. After watching that movie when I was in my early 30s I decided not to ever wear a tie with a short sleeved shirt.
‘prescription glasses, very short hair and wore a short sleeved shirt’
http://www.mindpollution.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/milton-office-space.jpg
But did you keep the stapler?
When I was a desk jockey, I had a kind of uniform. White shirt, several colored slacks, tie. Almost all cotton. Wing-tipped shoes. I never really cared about how it looked so much as comfort for the commutes and sitting at the computer all day.
They don’t make orange-colored staplers like that any more — do they?!
My brother got laid off in ‘91 at age 50 and never worked again. He refused to go Lucky Ducky.
“A lot of the fired had worked at places like General Dynamics their entire career and were virtually unemployable in the non DoD sector.”
Too bad they didn’t have an education and skill that was in demand.
Oh wait, they… did.
re: the lugging of overhead — It’s always been more impression that the DoD is fully willing to pay overhead costs because they absolutely will not allow the sector to shrink nor will they allow production of most things oversees. There are lots of Intellectual Property considerations. These considerations, in turn, result in crazy accounting firm and law firm bills. And the government thus pays more for everything.
True.
But alot of government contracts were “develop and build a fighter that can take off and land on a ship or an airstrip, be stealthy and beat every other fighter out there for the next 40 years.”
How do you give a “firm fixed price” for that? It is not like Lockheed is selling Dell Computers off the rack.
This is the area I work in currently–the bidding of these sorts of contracts. There are always issues of allowable overhead, direct costs, and indirect costs. We both bid and protest the contracts as well as defend the companies (and execs) who are accused of fraud, typically by disgruntled ex employees. The complexity of how these contracts are bid, priced, and administered is frightening, as well as the accounting procedures. Then, you also have IP issues that naturally come with such acquisitions. Finally, in longer-term and larger-denomination contracts, there is typically an issuing of bonds that these clients need (which again raises a lot of issues of accounting and IP protection, such as how do you inform potential investors when your client is developing communications systems for helocopters, optics for drones, or even computer viruses such as Stuxnet).
The result is tons of fees, but part of me always thinks — where does the money for this come from? From Flyover State Lucky Duckies who will never benefit from any of this? (At least the rich states get a benefit because all the tax money is spread around to accountants, lawyers, engineers, etc. Virtually all these big beneficiaries are in blue states, while the disposable rank-and-file workers are usually in red states)
Are you sure it’s not the union’s fault? That’s certainly the common/popular wisdom/meme blame.
“Lockheed Martin Corp is close to winning Pentagon backing to build all 29 F-35 fighters ??
As much as I think the pentagon is a bloated mess and it should be cut significantly I have no problem with this…Its my understanding that the F-35 is so advanced that it makes all other fighter jets defenseless in a confrontation…
I do not have a source or the accurateness and I am just going off memory, but I read somewhere sometime ago that said in a mock air engagement, one F-35 went up against four F-18 fighters…It was said that all four F-18 fighters were taken out by the F-35 without one F-18 fighter ever firing a shot…They were never even were able to engage with the F-35 because they never saw him visually or radar…The F-35 was so stealth, so fast and could strike from so far away that the F-18’s were defenseless…
I have a friend who’s a retired F-15 pilot. I need to ask him what he thinks of the F-35.
When Al-Quada gets themselves some F-18s we will be able to beat them easily then!
So now we can sell F-18s to them. Whoohoo!
You were probably reading about an F-22. The F-35 hasn’t got that far yet.
With the F-22, we’ve built a fighter that is 20 years ahead of anything else, mainly due to it’s electronics.
We are betting that 150 or so F-22s (with data links to/from F-15s and F-16s) will be able to gain/maintain air superiority over opponents whose airplanes may only have 80% of the performance, but will outnumber our guys by 5-10 to 1.
The V/STOL version of the F-35 is what the US and Brits are banking on to allow development of small, less expensive aircraft carrier.
Now if this is worthwhile is another question. The Navy (and the Brits, and the French) found out a long time ago that once you pay for the propulsion plant and all of the electronics, it doesn’t cost that much more to build a 50K ton displacement carrier that operates 50 airplanes, than it does a 100K ton Nimitz with 90-100 aircraft. Steel is cheap, and all of that extra flight deck is nice to have. In reduced accident rates, for starters. Also, you need to make room for all of those “defensive” aircraft that protect your naval assets (plane guard and anti-submarine helos, AEW E-2Cs, CAP fighters).
You can design a carrier so small as to be pointless, which may be what the Chinese see with their new ship.
John T Reed makes a good case for all surface ships being pointless now thanks to missiles and subs.
Missiles and subs can be dealt with.
A carrier task force can move at 30 plus knots. In wartime, (unless the carrier just happens to drive over a sub that the “desanitization” missed) a sub is going to have to run at 30 knots or better, just to get into a firing position. Subs running at 30 knots are noisy. Diesel-electric subs (most of them), running at 30 knots, may run out of battery charge as well.
Same way a Mach .90 or faster bomber (or business jet) is a real interception problem for anything other than a F-22. They have to burn a lot of fuel in afterburner to intercept/overtake. Many times, you can run the supersonic fighter out of fuel before they get to a shooting position. Even worse if they have to lay eyeballs on the target to identify it before shooting.
What about an ICBM or something of similar capability aimed at your carrier group?
What about an ICBM or something of similar capability aimed at your carrier group?
That’s what ICBM’s controlled by your nation but located elsewhere are for
scdave, that was the F-22.
The F-35 is the replacement for the F-16 and 18 and is sort of the “economy” version of the F-22.
Is it the “Apple in the crapper” situation that is eating at Wall Street today?
Apple extends selloff after CEO talks Maps launch
Apple’s losses continue to weigh on the tech sector with Chief Executive Tim Cook telling BloombergBusinessweek that the company “screwed up” with launch of mapping application.
Earlier this week, another HBB-er noted that Apple is heading toward some tough times.
Why?
1. Because they’re already getting whupped on the mobile phone front. Seems that Samsung recently released a cheaper and better model than the iPhone.
2. The iPad is also getting quite a bit of competition. Which will only increase as time goes on.
3. Their computers aren’t exactly cheap. Hard to justify such a price differential over the long run.
Me? I’m looking for more computer makers to release models that run the Ubuntu GUI for Linux. With OpenOffice taking the place of M$ Office. And Firefox for the browser.
Take that, Apple and Microsoft.
Why?
Because Apple has always done this.
Make innovative and great products. Sell them for 2-3x for the competitor. Bask in the huge profit margins. Don’t worry about all that competition gaining speed.
Do not change anything. Assume your cult following will always buy your stuff. Wonder why you went off the cliff.
Case in point.
Apple iphone 5 - unlocked - $750
Google nexus 4 phone -unlocked - $350
Both are almost equal technically.
The cost of a PC vs. a Mac is alluring, but in my years of mac using, I’ve never had any problems with malware or viruses.
For PC Virus Victims, Pay or Else
CULVER CITY, Calif. — Kidnappers used to make ransom notes with letters cut out of magazines. Now, notes simply pop up on your computer screen, except the hostage is your PC.
Sometimes victims get a message, ostensibly from the F.B.I., accusing them of breaking the law and demanding a fine
In the past year, hundreds of thousands of people across the world have switched on their computers to find distressing messages alerting them that they no longer have access to their PCs or any of the files on them.
The messages claim to be from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, some 20 other law enforcement agencies across the globe or, most recently, Anonymous, a shadowy group of hackers. The computer users are told that the only way to get their machines back is to pay a steep fine.
And, curiously, it’s working. The scheme is making more than $5 million a year, according to computer security experts who are tracking them.
IOS is much better than Andriod IMHO.
Do know who makes MS office?
Take that, Apple and Microsoft.
I’m looking for more computer makers to release models that run the Ubuntu GUI for Linux. With OpenOffice taking the place of M$ Office. And Firefox for the browser.
Linux still has a long way to go before it will be ready for the masses of non-technical people to use effectively…
Case in point, I spent hours last night troubleshooting an email bug on our Red Hat app servers. Our app sends email fine via SMTP on any of our dev machines (including windows and mac). Push the code to production and email breaks. Turns out it was an SELinux issue and I had to disable SELinux to get email to work properly… I shouldn’t have to disable what is “essential ACL security” to get email to work properly.
As to Apple, OS X is great, but the days of proprietary apple hardware being worth the price are gone. They should just accept that and start selling less expensive hardware with their great OS. Worked for Microsoft for 30 years…
Linux still has a long way to go before it will be ready for the masses of non-technical people to use effectively…
and also a long way to go before it’s ready for people with some technical skills.
30 years ago I was playing with assembly & machine language. I cloned an IBM XT computer, including the on-chip BASIC language using a chip burner I built myself. Fiddled around with the details of CP/M & early MS-DOS. Have soldered on motherboards of laptops, after which they still worked.
Have tried several times get started with Linux or its variants, made minimal progress. Its advocates seem to go out of their way to make it impenetrable, inconceivable and impregnable to any but the very few.
It has gotten much better…Ubuntu has really reached out to the non-Linux people. The place where you still run into trouble is if you’re using a device that doesn’t have a driver included in the install…that can still be tricky for most people. But the average person with a standard machine usually doesn’t need to hunt for drivers these days.
My experience with Red Hat ten years ago went to a dead end. With Ubuntu it was great. Now I like to have the option of Windows 7 or Ubuntu and I go with either, depending on my whim.
Ubuntu is as easy as Apple or Windows. In many areas, easier and more reliable.
Significantly faster as well.
However, what is missing is several production tools, namely Adobe.
For general productivity, Open Office/Libre Office is exactly like MS Office, although one version behind.
Remember, Android runs on Linux and Apple now runs on Unix.
The first time I installed Ubuntu, it configured everything without even asking me for drivers and it worked, the first time. Everything.
Competing on price alone is hard…just see what’s happening to Dell.
With OpenOffice taking the place of M$ Office. And Firefox for the browser.
Actually, MS Office now offers a SaaS pricing model where you use Office online for an inexpensive monthly fee. It’s at the point where price is no longer an issue in continuing to use the latest version of Office products.
Still costs more than OpenOffice.
Still costs more than OpenOffice.
I don’t disagree, but the plans range from $4/mo for hosted web-based mail (Google Mail for Business is $5/mo) to $6/mo for web-based versions of Office to $20/mo for everything in the lower tiers plus Office Professional desktop for up to five devices per user.
From my perspective, I would gladly pay $6/mo per employee for web-based word and excel without any of the headaches of installing, configuring, upgrading, supporting or paying up-front for Office on the desktop/laptop. OpenOffice may not cost anything licensing-wise, but I would still need all the other things I listed, which cost time and money…
And Open Office is now “good enough”. In my family, gaming is now the only reason to stay with Windows.
gaming is now the only reason to stay with Windows.
+100
COD: Black Ops 2 has been calling… just haven’t had the time lately.
The question is: Are the gaming companies in cahoots with Microsoft? Why don’t they make Linux versions? They can say the market is too small, but they have to know it would immediately get much bigger…
Apple OSX versions of games are slowing becoming more common, but it is still a farcry (pun intented) from the PC. I think Nvidia, the intel of graphics processing chips today, has much to do with this.
Nvidia graphics chipsets are constantly pushing the bounds of graphics processing capability. They dominate the Wintel world, so games that want cutting edge graphics are PC based. The everyday gaming crowd flocks to tablets, smart phones and consoles, but they all lag the PC in graphics capability.
That’s my take on the industry as an active consumer of PC games. I own consoles like the Wii and XBox, and have an iPhone and iPad. All can play games… PC graphics are still way ahead of anything else, and that’s before taking advantage of something like Nvidia 3D Vision in games.
Are you saying Intel wants everyone on Windows? You would think they could just as easily support Linux.
Are you saying Intel wants everyone on Windows?
Nah. Mostly that if you want the industry to develop more games for other OS’s/platforms, you need to get the graphics chip folks on board expanding driver support and packaging their chipsets onto things other than Wintel. That and the big game engine developers like Epic.
As Epic stated at an industry reveal this year for their latest Unreal game engine, they built the Unreal 4 engine to run on everything from an iPhone to the latest Nvidia SLI graphics chipset. Where they push the envelope is with the high-end PC graphics.
I would think that Nvidia could easily write a Linux driver if they wanted to. They may already have one for all I know…
The last 2 graphic card players both have a full range of drivers for Linux.
The one and only reason there are not more sophisticated games on Linux is sheer numbers.
Not enough seats, yet.
As of 2011, these are the top ten FPS games for Linux.
http://www.techdrivein.com/2011/07/top-10-fps-games-for-linux.html
Top 10 RTS games for Linux.
http://www.techdrivein.com/2011/07/10-popular-real-time-strategyrts-games.html
I really like the PowerSpec box I got last year. Yes, it was running Windows 7, but the system seems to work fine and the bloatware was minimal. And the box wasn’t horribly ugly either (not shiny everywhere with an overabundance of lights and things.
And yes, I overpaid for the Dell monitor, but that also came with a non-shiny frame which I require in a screen I am going to look at for a long time.
yes, I overpaid for the Dell monitor
How do you overpay for a monitor? You can get 27″ LCD monitor with sub-2ms response time from Samsung for under $400. I remember when a 21″ CRT was close to $1,000.
Deflation has hit electronics hard…
I think that Polly meant that she could have bought a non Dell LCD for less.
I could have gotten a similar size (I think it is a 23 inch) for a lot less, but the other ones were ugly and either didn’t adjust properly or seemed flimsy. I paid more for the aesthetics of a simple, matt bevel and only one light on the front. I don’t remember if it was $200 or $250, but Microcenter had off brands that were quite a bit less.
Got it. I’m still floored at how inexpensive LCD monitors and TV’s have become while the screens have gotten larger.
The combination of competition squeezing margins in a commodity market and manufacturing process efficiency over a period of years have colluded to make the LCD monitor very affordable while increasing the value (size and capability).
Now if we could take those same concepts and apply them to education and healthcare…
Yeah, it will be great for a couple of years, then when all of the competition has merged or gone out of business, you will be left with a worldwide, price-fixing monopoly of 2-3 privately owned companies, answerable to no one.
Like the oil industry. The airliner manufacturing industry. Wal-Mart. Etc.
See the recent NYT article on electronics companies hit for fixing market prices in Europe…
This is where government plays a useful role. Antitrust and cartel busting. Ensuring business practices are fair and collusion doesn’t lead to unfair market advantage.
Price fixing in the computer industry has been ongoing for decades.
Every single mfgr has been guilty.
You also have margin requirements being raised on the stock. I said about a week ago I was not bullish on the stock, but it has corrected far quicker than I expected. Glad I do not own it and especially glad I do not own it on margin.
Something tells me U.S. investors in China are about to have their asses handed to them.
China wealth-management products spell danger, says Fitch
December 6, 2012, 1:59 AM
Fresh concerns about China’s banking system arose this week over whether some lenders are using wealth-management products to conduct what borders on a Ponzi scheme.
Wealth-management products have seen huge growth lately in China, creating a pool of assets on track to top 13 trillion yuan ($2.09 trillion) by year’s end.
More than 100 related products are debuting on a daily basis, rolled out by Chinese banks — big and small alike — underscoring what’s become an arms race among lenders eager to secure deposits, according to Fitch Ratings.
Banks under pressure to post strong deposit growth are counting a growing share of these investment funds as savings deposits, something that wasn’t done before.
As a result, in spite of bank data showing strong deposit growth, there’s actually been “little improvement in liquidity,” Fitch said.
Some wealth-management products themselves might in reality represent new loans, which would mean assessing credit risk within China’s banking system is becoming increasingly difficult, Fitch says.
It cited this for its concerns about the asset-quality data at Chinese banks.
“Proceeds raised from products containing credit can be used to repay, roll over, or purchase borrowers’ existing loans. This can give the appearance of high repayment rates of corporate loans -– and by extension, strong banking-sector asset quality and corporate-sector health -– when in fact the loans are not being repaid by borrowers themselves, but rather by investors,” Fitch said.
Assessing what’s really going on is also complicated by the lack of disclosure.
…
Something tells me U.S. investors in China are about to have their asses handed to them.
Seems only fair as US workers have been having their asses handed to them for decades.
And of course, no one could have seen this coming!
I’m sure you’ve heard the expression, ‘If something sounds too good to be true, it probably is.’ Well, in the investment world, I say, ‘If something sounds too good to be true, it definitely is.’
[1997 Washington Times 3 June B7]
That sounds about right to me.
What are you worried about? They are “sophisticated investors”. Just ask them.
The Chinese oligarchs wouldn’t dare go all Hugo Chavez on them, or do something as stupid as hand over their gained-over-decades intellectual property (in a country with no intellectual property protection) for pennies on the dollar, just to gain access to that mythical candy crapping unicorn, AKA the “Chinese domestic consumer market”.
Marijuana - Tired of hearing about it.
The news stations are all enthusiastically reporting the latest developments in the legalization of marijuana. The hype reminds me of when Castro promised the world that Cuba was going into overdrive in the production of sugar and becoming the world’s largest sugar-producing nation was really going to put his corrupt festering sh*thole of a country on the map. America is now apparently going to smoke its way to prosperity. Truly a new era because everyone knows that getting high and productivity are directly proportional. A bigger crock of bs has never been served by the MSM.
Love your name, BTW!
We welcome your pot tourist dollars to Colorado. Please come here and spend lots and lots and lots of money here on pot and munchies and lift tickets and hotel rooms and river rafting and mountain bike rentals. Keep it illegal in the other states and spend all your money here please!
Ummm, goon squad, you sound like you’re channeling the rhetoric that came out of Vermont after same-sex marriage became legal.
Long story short: It’s been very, VERY good for the Vermont economy.
Vermont soon won’t be getting as much of that same sex marriage traffic, though. Maine and Maryland voted to legalize same sex marriage and are beginning to issue marriage licenses. There are going to be a lot of weddings in Baltimore on January 1st. Hundreds, if not thousands.
I hope they are all packing side arms.
Baltimore is a rough town.
That is, of course, absolutely ridiculous. People don’t “vacation” in a place to get high. Potheads have getting “high” as a lifestyle, ignoring local laws and ordinances.
Personally, I agree that FAR too many people are in jail on “possession” charges, and the laws need to be changed, but most are FEDERAL.
Decriminalizing “pot” to say a fine of $100 for possession, would still technically make it illegal, and discourage some usage, but would end the prison backlog. Increase fine to include jailtime as quantities increase, i.e. dealing, and trafficking.
But, no one I know that smokes pot is going to ‘vacation’ in Colorado because they can legally get Rocky Mountain High.
People don’t “vacation” in a place to get high.
Amsterdam. And it’s a lot farther than Colorado.
Amsterdam has passed anti-tourist toking laws.
If you aren’t native, you aren’t toking.
You’ll see. People with money will come here to enjoy our skiing, rafting, mountaineering, craft beers, and the best weed in USA.
The “lifestyle” stoners will keep smoking their Mexican dirt weed and stay on their couches playing video games.
True. Colorado will be as groovy for that crowd as Utah is not.
Truly a new era because everyone knows that getting high and productivity are directly proportional. A bigger crock of bs has never been served by the MSM.
I think that a lot of this legal marijuana hoopla has to do with the aging of the baby boomers. A lot of them are in relatively poor health. More than a few have found that pot provides pain relief, so guess what they’re turning to.
Others just never stopped getting high.
You obviously have no idea how much we currently spend arresting and incarcerating people on simple possession of marajuana. That alone is a far bigger drain on the country than some kids getting high.
Also, you take away a revenue stream flowing south of the border, because the drug can be legally grown here and the ATF/DEA can stop spending billions of dollars to chase and apprehend growers.
Drain? Aren’t you talking about all of those LEO jobs with all that overtime? Fees and fines, court costs, bribes to corrupt officials? These all sound like revenue-generators, certainly not a “drain” on our bloated, inefficient, bottomless pit that is our government.
I read that 500 California correctional officers made an average $100,000 in a study a few years ago.
America has too many victimless crime laws. It’s a scheme to provide workfare for prison guards, cops, bail bondsmen, prosecutors, and the like. But more importantly it turns many people who were arrested to hardened criminals upon release because the felonies due to drug usage arrests make it harder for them to find above ground jobs. When you are back against the wall and have nothing left to lose you do whatever you can, violent or non-violent.
The entire criminal justice system is mostly “for profit” these days.
You still have rights. All the rights you can afford, anyway.
If marijuana is legalized, the drug cartels will just double up on meth production.
Just what we all need.
If marijuana is inlawed, then only inlaws will have marijuana.
Well, actually, while not being a Castro supporter, there is more to the story of the SugarCane production failure than is usually reported, and another reason for Castro’s hatred of American Business.
As I recall, after having taken control of the Government of Cuba, he did contract with American manufacturer’s of heavy equipment to provide some large-scale sugar cutting and bundling equipment like the American Tractor/combine equipment used today to harvest corn.
Unfortunately for American designers, they did not go down to Cuba to investigate the conditions under which the equipment would be used.
They designed the equipment, collected their Bills as C.O.D. and Castro’s farming koolaks drove the tractors out into the fields where the sunk in the muck where sugar cane grows.
Good ole boys with Big-tired 4 wheel drive trucks have a better understanding of the Mud bogs where sugar cane grows. Not American designers.
At least, that is my recollection of the history of Sugar Cane production in Cuba. It’s still done mostly by hand with human labor.
RAL probably is right about it not being a good time to buy.
Because - when bank liquidity ratios return so will much wanted higher interest rates.
Double the current interest rate and guess what happens to existing home prices.
Maybe thats why Timmy is willing to jump over the cliff. To slow down business so that the banks cannot accumulate equity so that rates stay low.
And the federal gov can continue to not address their expenditures.
That house I was going to buy in Florida? Forget it. For the four weeks total that I would want to use it for the next ten years of my life - cheaper to rent and enjoy different locations.
Double the interest rates and America goes bankrupt as it will not be able to afford the INTEREST on the debt.
Thank you obama.
Double the current interest rate and guess what happens to existing home prices.
Thank you obama.
Get back to work, serf! The 47% need *YOU to pay more taxes to pay for their SNAP cards and Earned Income Tax credits and free school lunches and Section 8 vouchers and Obama phones. BWA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!
“Maybe thats why Timmy is willing to jump over the cliff. To slow down business so that the banks cannot accumulate equity so that rates stay low.”
whenver timmy proposes anything…somehow…it’s to keep the TBTF banks solvent.
Because - when bank liquidity ratios return so will much wanted higher interest rates.
Given the deficits and the size of the shadow inventory, that won’t be happening for a while.
RAL probably is right about it not being a good time to buy.
Yes he is.
If you buy a house now, you’re going to lose alot of money. ALOT of money.
“For the four weeks total that I would want to use it for the next ten years of my life - cheaper to rent and enjoy different locations.”
Give the man a HBB diploma!
If Timmy were any good he’d force declining liquidity ratios on the banks. They had it once upon a time and look how great the USA became.
Yes, extend/pretend will work until his currency is only what it is - paper.
Mario Monti’s technocrat government can no longer rely on Silvio Berlusconi’s party in parliament after it withdrew its support on Thursday for the first time, in a key senate vote on reforms to boost the Italian economy.
Senators loyal to Mr Berlusconi, the former prime minister, did not take part in the vote. The reform bill still passed with 127 senators in favour, mostly from the centre-left Democratic party. But it revealed that Mr Monti cannot command an absolute majority in the upper house which has 320 senators at present.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/59acf0bc-3fa1-11e2-b2ce-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2EHx7NIpr
Another government heading out of the door. Still as long as we have football to distract us we will all be fine (you’ll have to make do with some other sport)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vadA6JgnGmY
Your UK and Euro-weenie “football” players don’t turn into washed up vegetables like our USA football playas do. Alzheimer’s at age 30? How uniquely American!
http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/health/2012/12/03/boston-researchers-find-new-evidence-linking-repeat-concussions-permanent-brain-injury/qvJNGvLChiDRQOC0xkIKUJ/story.html
Yes, we Europeans don’t play full contact sports
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqHwSA2gEkk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7-et6E8ptg
Serious point do the helmets and padding in American football make concussion more likely?
Serious point do the helmets and padding in American football make concussion more likely?
LOL. Yes, more likely than a fractured skull. When a 300lb defensive tackle hits a 300lb offensive tackle (or 220lb quarterback), the forces involved require padding and helmets to avoid immediate serious injury…
The problem is with the game. Repeated hits to the head are part of the game.
“Repeated hits to the head are part of the game.”
Not if they don’t wear helmets.
Not if they don’t wear helmets.
Some old-school coach was saying that face masks are the problem. Take them away and players wouldn’t use their helmets as weapons. They’d need to hold back to protect their faces. Face masks allow them to dive with reckless abandon.
Merely a slapfest. This is real rugby.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vZBjqRzZOM
Amazing how many American Football fans don’t know about Rugby and why Europeans laugh at it.
Two different types of rugby, there kick and clap and rugby league.
Rugby is crazy on its own, but American Football is even more insane.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YecLm9uZuZE
It’s a sport designed to destroy the human body.
heard a libertarian say once…if the government wanted to eliminate deaths from car wrecks they should get rid of seatbelts and put a spear in the center of every steering wheel.
Actually, heading the ball can cause problems. Some players now wear head protectors, though that is considered a wussy thing to do.
had protectors just mean they can hit each other even harder.
you’ll have to make do with some other sport
Hey, we have the Soup Bowl!
A link to this letter can be found on wattsupwiththat.com, I have only included the first ten or so, of the 130 people that signed the letter:
Open Letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations
H.E. Ban Ki-Moon, Secretary-General, United Nations
First Avenue and East 44th Street, New York, New York, U.S.A.
November 29, 2012
Mr. Secretary-General:
On November 9 this year you told the General Assembly: “Extreme weather due to climate change is the new normal … Our challenge remains, clear and urgent: to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, to strengthen adaptation to … even larger climate shocks … and to reach a legally binding climate agreement by 2015 … This should be one of the main lessons of Hurricane Sandy.”
On November 13 you said at Yale: “The science is clear; we should waste no more time on that debate.”
The following day, in Al Gore’s “Dirty Weather” Webcast, you spoke of “more severe storms, harsher droughts, greater floods”, concluding: “Two weeks ago, Hurricane Sandy struck the eastern seaboard of the United States. A nation saw the reality of climate change. The recovery will cost tens of billions of dollars. The cost of inaction will be even higher. We must reduce our dependence on carbon emissions.”
We the undersigned, qualified in climate-related matters, wish to state that current scientific knowledge does not substantiate your assertions.
The U.K. Met Office recently released data showing that there has been no statistically significant global warming for almost 16 years. During this period, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations rose by nearly 9% to now constitute 0.039% of the atmosphere. Global warming that has not occurred cannot have caused the extreme weather of the past few years. Whether, when and how atmospheric warming will resume is unknown. The science is unclear. Some scientists point out that near-term natural cooling, linked to variations in solar output, is also a distinct possibility.
The “even larger climate shocks” you have mentioned would be worse if the world cooled than if it warmed. Climate changes naturally all the time, sometimes dramatically. The hypothesis that our emissions of CO2 have caused, or will cause, dangerous warming is not supported by the evidence.
The incidence and severity of extreme weather has not increased. There is little evidence that dangerous weather-related events will occur more often in the future. The U.N.’s own Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says in its Special Report on Extreme Weather (2012) that there is “an absence of an attributable climate change signal” in trends in extreme weather losses to date. The funds currently dedicated to trying to stop extreme weather should therefore be diverted to strengthening our infrastructure so as to be able to withstand these inevitable, natural events, and to helping communities rebuild after natural catastrophes such as tropical storm Sandy.
There is no sound reason for the costly, restrictive public policy decisions proposed at the U.N. climate conference in Qatar. Rigorous analysis of unbiased observational data does not support the projections of future global warming predicted by computer models now proven to exaggerate warming and its effects.
The NOAA “State of the Climate in 2008” report asserted that 15 years or more without any statistically-significant warming would indicate a discrepancy between observation and prediction. Sixteen years without warming have therefore now proven that the models are wrong by their creators’ own criterion.
Based upon these considerations, we ask that you desist from exploiting the misery of the families of those who lost their lives or properties in tropical storm Sandy by making unsupportable claims that human influences caused that storm. They did not. We also ask that you acknowledge that policy actions by the U.N., or by the signatory nations to the UNFCCC, that aim to reduce CO2 emissions are unlikely to exercise any significant influence on future climate. Climate policies therefore need to focus on preparation for, and adaptation to, all dangerous climatic events however caused.
Signed by:
1.Habibullo I. Abdussamatov, Dr. Sci., mathematician and astrophysicist, Head of the Selenometria project on the Russian segment of the ISS, Head of Space Research of the Sun Sector at the Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia
2.Syun-Ichi Akasofu, PhD, Professor of Physics, Emeritus and Founding Director, International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, U.S.A.
3.Bjarne Andresen, Dr. Scient., physicist, published and presents on the impossibility of a “global temperature”, Professor, Niels Bohr Institute (physics (thermodynamics) and chemistry), University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
4.J. Scott Armstrong, PhD, Professor of Marketing, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Founder of the International Journal of Forecasting, focus on analyzing climate forecasts, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
5.Timothy F. Ball, PhD, environmental consultant and former climatology professor, University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
6.James R. Barrante, Ph.D. (chemistry, Harvard University), Emeritus Professor of Physical Chemistry, Southern Connecticut State University, focus on studying the greenhouse gas behavior of CO2, Cheshire, Connecticut, U.S.A.
7.Colin Barton, B.Sc., PhD (Earth Science, Birmingham, U.K.), FInstEng Aus Principal research scientist (ret.), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
8.Joe Bastardi, BSc, (Meteorology, Pennsylvania State), meteorologist, State College, Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
9.Franco Battaglia, PhD (Chemical Physics), Professor of Physics and Environmental Chemistry, University of Modena, Italy
10.Richard Becherer, BS (Physics, Boston College), MS (Physics, University of Illinois), PhD (Optics, University of Rochester), former Member of the Technical Staff – MIT Lincoln Laboratory, former Adjunct Professor – University of Connecticut, Areas of Specialization: optical radiation physics, coauthor – standard reference book Optical Radiation Measurements: Radiometry, Millis, MA, U.S.A.
11.Edwin X. Berry, PhD (Atmospheric Physics, Nevada), MA (Physics, Dartmouth), BS (Engineering, Caltech), Certified Consulting Meteorologist, President, Climate Physics LLC, Bigfork, MT, U.S.A.
Don’t make me pull a “500 Scientists Named ‘Steve’” on you….
Science is not a voting contest but there are plenty of scientists on that list. The key is the hard data which is not showing any warming for 15 or 16 years which is consistent with natural cycles but is entirely inconsistent with co2 being a major factor in the GW between the late seventies and 1998. The NOAA quote from 2008 says it all, it is a party admission that their computer models were wrong.
So a hansen when are we going to meaningfully break (.1C or above) the 1998 record? We have been on a Mesa for 16 years. Slate claimed it was going to be 2013 but without an El Nino that will not happen and it is looking like no el nino in 2013 so he may just eat those words.
The key is the hard data which is not showing any warming for 15 or 16 years which is consistent with natural cycles but is entirely inconsistent with co2 being a major factor in the GW between the late seventies and 1998. The NOAA quote from 2008 says it all, it is a party admission that their computer models were wrong.
Don’t mess with the liberal agenda of Carbon Taxes and Cap and Trade. Recently implemented in California, and if it were up to the Democrats, soon to be forced down the throats of businesses and consumers everywhere.
Never mind the carbon taxes. Let’s add 3 billion more humanoids to the globe. Because whatever problems created by the existing 7 billion humanoids will only get better by adding more of them!
Because whatever problems created by the existing 7 billion humanoids will only get better by adding more of them!
Seems to be California’s model. Open immigration from the South to increase the population while increasing taxes to pay for, well, everything that big government has to pay for with an increasing dependent population.
Couldn’t agree more with you squad. How do we choose who to sterilize? The Nazis at least had a plan, so what will the plan moving forward be here?
You miss my point, quirky. For those not familiar, Project Steve is a parody of the sort of lists of discredited/agenda-ridden outliers you post above.
According to the National Center for Science Education “…NCSE’s “Project Steve” is a tongue-in-cheek parody of a long-standing creationist tradition of amassing lists of “scientists who doubt evolution” or “scientists who dissent from Darwinism.” Creationists draw up these lists to try to convince the public that evolution is somehow being rejected by scientists, that it is a “theory in crisis….”
Project Steve is NCSE’s answer to creationist shill, Ken Ham’s, Institute for Creation Research’s list of “100 Scientists Who Support Creationism”. Debating Stephen Jay Gould, he once purportedly told him “I’ll give you a list of a hundred scientists who support me”. Gould is said to have responded, “And I”ll give you a list of a hundred scientists named “Steve” who don’t.” Currently there are nearly 1300 accredited signatories.
Again (and again and again), you ignore the meta analysis in favor of cherry-picking from 15 (or 16, or 50) years of evidentiary bias. Trying to reason with you is like trying to reason with a creationist, so I’ll not waste my time. In any case, this board is hardly the place for advertising such ongoing nitwitery.
Name calling is not a debate, you have no facts so you wanted to move to ridicule. I refused to pay along. Explain the pause or just show your ignorance by not responding.
BTW, with all due respect to Dio, I believe that evolution gave humans their bodies but God gave them their soul.
Finally, a charge of cherry picking data coming from AGW advocates is the biggest joke. I want people to go back 420,000 years in data and see that this warming cycle is less than the normal warming cycle in most interglacier periods. It is the AGW that seems to want to concentrate on cherry picking data from 1979 or 1880 and ignore the data that we have on much earlier periods.
souls and play=pay, But, I do refuse to pay along, no money for an obvious fraud.
But you don’t understand. The Facts don’t matter.
It’s like Darwinism. The truth is irrelevant. We have a religious fervor with Gaia worship and the governments of the world have to “do something”.
Most importantly, any crisis that can be devised will allow the most draconian “laws” to be pushed, world-wide, to save the planet from destruction.
Please note. All these “scientists” are out of line with “mainstream” science and should be brandished and put on a Terrorist list.
Get their names and file them under “global warming deniers”. They should be rounded up and silenced.
I do find it ironic.
Every issue and crisis immedialty leads to the need to massive growth in government control and higher taxes.
Even if all those new regulations and taxes would not do ANYTHING to help.
Just a handy excuse.
And, even more ironic, when some of these theories are proved false and that the earth is not going to end and kill everyone.
Many scientists and democrats and UNHAPPY about it.
That’s Racist®.
morons…all of them.
could the climate change bubble be collapsing?
Gaia willing.
“PhD (Optics, University of Rochester), former Member of the Technical Staff – MIT Lincoln Laboratory”
I bet this guy has some cool stuff orbiting Earth.
Let us know when you have some Noble prize winners that say you are right, Dan.
Until then, to say Nobel prize winners are wrong is the epitome of hubris and ignorance.
Nobel has lost it’s luster. Obama and Peace, please!
In a time of economic crises remember what politicos used to say?
“A chicken in every pot”.
Today it’s “A chicken gut in every politico”.
A greedy hog’s head in every government trough.
Remember when I said that the theory of AGW was just a way for the multinationals to get taxpayers in the developed world to pay for the multinationals needed infrastructure in the developing world. I was ridiculed but here is an article from a British paper:
At the latest round of climate change talks in Doha, Qatar, the UK pledged almost £2bn over the next two years to help poor countries cope with climate change.
But the World Development Movement said the money is going to large companies rather than helping poor people likely to suffer from climate change.
A recent example was £385m, channeled through a World Bank project to promote clean energy in poor countries.
WDM say that most of the money went to private companies to build wind turbines or solar panels for profit.
Some £10m ended up going towards a 27-turbine farm in the state of Oaxaca in Mexico, operated by the French energy giant EDF, to be paid back in 15 years.
WDM claim that all of the electricity is being used by Walmart, the owner of the Asda supermarket chain, rather than for local people. Also land owned by indigenous people was used without their consent.
The latest tranche of UK climate change aid spending, includes £150 million towards projects such as building more solar panels in Africa.
Alex Scrivener, the World Development Movement’s policy officer, feared the money would again go to private companies.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/9723731/Climate-change-funds-earmarked-for-Africa-are-going-to-corporations.html
That’s Racist® too.
Clean energy subsidies sure seem like a dirty business. This harkens back to the days of Darth Vader..I mean Dick Cheney’s KBR boyz getting no-bid contracts for logistics in Iraq.
Almost every major American industry was jump started or promoted by the government.
To those who refute this I would remind them they are using one of those very same resources.
December 6, 2012
U.S. Unadjusted Unemployment Shoots Back Up
Unemployment situation best for college grads, whites, men, and older workers
by Jenny Marlar
WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 7.8% for the month of November, up significantly from 7.0% for October. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 8.3%, nearly a one-point increase over October’s rate
No election, no need to lie?
I don’t know the Government may still feel a need to lie, this is from Gallup. I suspect that a lot of businesses held out to see who would win the election and when they found out the winner they laid people off.
I did see a burst of announcements after the election on dailyjobcutsdotcom.
Forward! or uh Backwards!
I smell the need for another one of those economy boosting stimulus steamers.
…yet still down from 10% at peak.
Okay, beloved HBB-ers, I have a question. I need to replace my phone.
Since I do quite a bit of telephone prospecting, I’m looking for a phone that I can plug a binaural headset into.
Suggestions, por favor…
IMO Bluetooth has gotten pretty good. If I were you I’d consider going that direction rather than the “plug into” direction.
Thanks for the suggestion, Carl, but I need something that covers both ears. That one-eared Bluetooth thingie just won’t work with my hearing loss.
Some of the high end bluetooth headphones with mic is what I’m talking about. I agree with you on the sound needing to be good (and loud as needed). The challenge is finding one with a mic as good as the headphones.
CRATER!!!!
What!????
Daughter of Chiefs player to receive windfall
1 day ago
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) — The estate or guardian of the infant of the Chiefs player who killed her mother before turning a gun on himself will receive more than $1 million under terms of the NFL’s collective-bargaining agreement.
Jovan Belcher’s 3-month-old daughter, Zoey, stands to receive $108,000 annually over the next four years, $48,000 in the fifth year and then $52,000 each year until age 18. She’ll continue to receive that amount until age 23 if she attends college.
The beneficiary of Belcher, who was in his fourth season, also will receive $600,000 in life insurance, plus $200,000 for each credited season. There is also $100,000 in a retirement account that will go to his beneficiary or estate.
Players’ beneficiaries are kept confidential.
The current collective bargaining agreement was ratified in August 2011.
Copyright 2012 STATS LLC
New LPS Mortgage Monitor out today…CA Noncurrent loan rate down again…now just below 8%. Now in the lowest 1/3 of all states.
If the politicians can’t get a fiscal cliff agreement together, why can’t the Plunge Protection Team simply fill in the gap with a flood of liquidity?
‘Fiscal Cliff’ Talks Feel Wintry Chill
By DEVIN DWYER (@devindwyer) and MARY BRUCE (@marykbruce)
Dec. 6, 2012
A chill has descended on Washington just in time for tonight’s lighting of the National Christmas Tree.
President Obama will preside over an evening festival of star-studded carols and sparkling displays of holiday cheer on the White House Ellipse.
But don’t expect any of the holiday good will to warm the political frost over the fiscal cliff talks.
The White House is mandating that tax hikes for the wealthiest Americans must be part of any deficit-reduction deal with congressional Republicans, who stand equally opposed. Negotiations have ground to a standstill.
“I’m not going to sign any package that somehow prevents the top rate from going up for folks in the top 2 percent,” Obama said during a visit with a middle class family in northern Virginia.
“I’m encouraged to see that there’s been some discussion by Republicans acknowledging the need for additional revenue,” he said. “But the only way to get the kind of revenues we need is to modestly increase rates on folks like me.”
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the lead Democratic negotiator in “cliff” talks, said Wednesday the administration is “absolutely” willing to allow the package of deep automatic spending cuts and across-the-board tax hikes to take effect Jan. 1 if they don’t get some increase in top rates.
Obama spoke by phone with House Speaker John Boehner on Wednesday, the first time both men had been in contact in one week. On Monday, Boehner attended a White House holiday party but did not greet Obama. The two have no public meetings scheduled, aides said.
“Conversations continue; lines of communication remain open between the White House and Congress,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said today. “But we’re not there yet.”
…