The Foreclosure Years Are Ahead Of Us
The Sun Sentinel reports from Florida. “Florida has the nation’s highest foreclosure rate for the third month in a row, according to RealtyTrac. Florida had 29,612 filings last month, up 20 percent from a year ago. Still, the number was less than half of the state’s peak: 64,588 filings in April 2009. Deerfield Beach housing analyst Jack McCabe said banks will step up efforts to complete short sales with distressed homeowners and unload foreclosed homes and non-performing mortgages to investors in bulk. What’s more, McCabe said, there are 550,000 Florida homeowners who haven’t received default notices even though they’re at least 90 days delinquent.”
“‘It’s not that the foreclosure problem has gone away,’ he said.”
The Star Banner. “The Ocala area had the dubious distinction in November of having the second highest foreclosure rate among metropolitan areas throughout the United States. The rate was the highest it has been in the past 28 months, according to RealtyTrac. Judy Ray, president of the Ocala/Marion County Association of Realtors, said the area’s foreclosures are linked to the community’s unemployment rate. ‘There are people who can’t find jobs, companies closing,’ Ray said. ‘I know people who haven’t made a (mortgage payment) in two or three years.’”
“In addition, Ray thinks that following the problems with robo-signing, banks held off foreclosing, until now. ‘There are limits for the banks. They put up with it, but that’s changing,’ Ray said. ‘And you had to be five, six months behind before the banks even took notice.’ As for the future, Ray said, ‘It’s going to stay the same. They’re not going to go away. I see more bank foreclosure filings.’”
The Tampa Bay Times. “Tampa Bay foreclosure filings jumped 40 percent over November 2011, with more than 2,000 new foreclosures and 1,000 repossessions. And in the three circuit courts governing Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties, court data show that the number of open foreclosure cases dropped less than 1 percent between July and November, evidence of a backlog 70,000 cases deep.”
“Hillsborough Circuit Judge Herbert Baumann said case managers there are actively digging up stalled foreclosures, including some more than four years old, to push to resolution. ‘We need to go case by case and give everyone a chance to come in and explain what’s going on,’ Baumann said. ‘It’s not something we’re going to be able to dramatically reduce in a short period of time.’”
From Florida Today. “Merritt Island bankruptcy attorney Carole Bess said people involved in the housing industry have known that the waves of foreclosures weren’t done because mortgage companies were spacing out the process. ‘I think the market may have bottomed out, but we’re going to see some foreclosures of homes where the decision to abandon them was made a long time ago,’ Bess said. ‘It’s just taken a longer time to have the fallout.’”
“Banks, which have foreclosure backlogs of up to two years, are finally moving on defaulted properties and arranging short sales, said Cocoa Beach Realtor Tim Harber, 2012 president of Space Coast Realtors. ‘It’s people who have had a short sale that has been pending forever that are finally moving forward,’ Harber said. ‘I’m not seeing an increase in the number of homeless people.’”
“John Tuccillo, chief economist for the state association, Florida Realtors, said Florida has suffered more than the rest of the nation during the housing collapse and that suffering will continue. ‘We were overextended more than other places, and because of that our numbers are up and high. We are in fact still struggling with the issues that were created during the market downturn. It’s updating, but it’s not going to go away,’ Tuccillo said.”
The Florida Courier. “The tough housing market is expected to continue to be a drag on the state’s tax collections even after the economy begins to pick up in future years, according to forecasters. And forecasters also anticipate slow growth in property values over the next two or three years, with things picking up to somewhere around 3 percent a year. The lag is caused by a surge in foreclosure filings that have swamped the courts; properties that go into foreclosure now take as much as two and a half years to go from filing to the market.”
“Many of the foreclosures that happened as the housing crisis was roiling Florida still aren’t showing up in the numbers. ‘The worst years are really ahead of us in terms of hitting the marketplace,’ said Amy Baker, coordinator for the Legislature’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research.”
“She suggested during the meeting that foreclosures could still be putting pressure on property tax revenues as late as the 2016-17 budget year. After the meeting, Baker told reporters that more homeowners could also use short sales to try to get rid of homes instead of going through foreclosure. ‘At some point we think short-sales in Florida are going to pick up,’ she said. ‘They haven’t yet.’”
“Since 2007, distressed homeowners have dodged massive bills due to a tax-time saving grace: The debts they were ‘forgiven’ in foreclosures, short sales or principal reductions were also scrubbed from their dues to Uncle Sam. But that tax break is set to expire Dec. 31. Brad Bates and his wife are racing to sell their Meadowlawn home for $100,000 less than the couple owes the bank. Sell by the end of the month, and the couple could see their mortgage debt erased. Any later, and the Bates would face a different kind of debt: a tax bill soaring more than $25,000.”
“‘We’re not wealthy people,’ said Bates, 58, a retired Air Force air traffic controller. ‘That would probably force us … to file for bankruptcy.’”
“To avoid the tax, homeowners can file bankruptcy or prove to the IRS they are insolvent, with debts outweighing all they own. St. Petersburg tax problems and bankruptcy attorney Larry Heinkel said, ‘Almost everyone who is facing a short sale or foreclosure is also insolvent, so it isn’t the end of the world if the short sale doesn’t occur by month’s end.’”
“But the Florida Realtors say the expiration would discourage homeowners from selling in the first place, crimping buyers’ options and bringing ’short sales to a standstill,’ said VP of public policy John Sebree. The Realtors have called for lawmakers to extend the break, saying, ‘Homeowners shouldn’t be forced to pay tax on money they’ve already lost with cash they never received.’”
“Karen Kirchmann said she knows that agony well. After 14 months of trying to sell her and her husband’s Clearwater home, the bank finally agreed to a price $40,000 less than they owe. The couple found a buyer and wrangled a Dec. 28 closing date, but Kirchmann hears the clock ticking. Selling by the end of the year will save the couple the hardship of a $10,000 tax bill. ‘I’m beside myself. I’m exhausted,’ she said. ‘I’m expecting they’re going to screw me once and for all, at the finish line, when there’s nothing I can do.’”
From AOL Real Estate. “Although there’s no hard data on the rate of violent incidents between process servers who deliver foreclosure notices and homeowners who receive them, some who represent the servers say there’s a strong consensus that the housing crisis has aggravated the situation. Foreclosure filings more than quadrupled between 2006 and 2010, skyrocketing from 718,000 to 2.88 million nationwide, according to RealtyTrac.”
“One process server who’s observed an increase is William Greenberg, who’s delivered foreclosure paperwork for 25 years. He reports being physically attacked by an angry homeowner this year — in Florida. The property owner, an attorney, knocked him to the ground, grabbed his neck and ripped off his server badge after he tried to present him with foreclosure documents, Greenberg said. ‘It scared the hell out of me,’ the 60-year-old added. ‘I didn’t know what he was going to do. It was like he had rabies.’”
“Greenberg, who serves documents in the counties of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade, said that because of the foreclosure epidemic such incidents are much more common than they used to be. He said that he serves ‘10 times’ as much foreclosure paperwork now than he used to. But Greenburg said that the sky-high number of foreclosures isn’t the sole reason behind the rising aggression that he sees toward process servers. He thinks that borrowers are also generally more hostile than they used to be.”
“‘Now it’s different. Now they are pissed off,’ he said. ‘They’re looking at us as if we’re the ones that are the problem.’”
Ahhh, a foreclosure “epidemic” in Florida. Finally. Is this the end of “extend and pretend”? Will this be the winter of our discontent?
So, banks and mortgage holders are now getting serious about foreclosing? Why now?
“Why now?”
I thought the point of extend-and-pretend was to wait until green shoots of economic recovery took root before restoring normalcy to the real estate market.
Now maybe it’s about getting what they can before the market goes down in flames.
“‘It’s not that the foreclosure problem has gone away,’ he said.”
It’s truly amazing to contemplate, but it has been years already since I first pointed out the massive shadow inventory of houses lurking under the surface of the U.S. housing market.
How long can elephants remain hidden under the living room rug before they really create a stench?
And strangely enough, FL is far far along in getting past this mess than the rest of the country and it’s still a disaster down there.
Is Florida back to 2002 prices “far far”? There is a lot of air under them. I noticed a few months ago the Case Shiller graph for Tampa looks exactly like the one for San Francisco; dropped to 2002 prices and then bouncing sideways for the past couple years. A sucker’s rally with no joy. Pretty much the national story.
The charts scream imminent stage 2 decline, while some of our California posters scream “buy now or rent forever”.
‘in the three circuit courts governing Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties, court data show that the number of open foreclosure cases dropped less than 1 percent between July and November, evidence of a backlog 70,000 cases deep’
I bet you can find multiple quotes in this same newspaper about buyers being ‘forced’ to pay over asking because of low inventory.
Foreclosures are accelerating. What does this do to the bank-controlled inventory? Yes, it is increasing but does this drive the banks to put them on the market any sooner? If so, why?
To beat the rush for the exits.
I want to buy but I don’t want to buy too soon.
I really want to know, why is it different? Why would the banks increase the inventory thereby lower the value of their holdings?
The banks haven’t done it up to this point, what is the trigger that will cause an avalanche of foreclosures being available on the market?
“Why would the banks increase the inventory thereby lower the value of their holdings?”
This could only occur in a noncompetitive banking sector with top-down collusion.
Once the banking sector is restructured to restore competition, the shadow inventory will be released and affordability restored (I’m talking about over our kids’ lifetimes here…).
“The banks haven’t done it up to this point”
They sure did. Look no further than 2008-2011.
(I’m talking about over our kids’ lifetimes here…).
Wow. So, like, over the next half-century?
In essence. Home ownership is going to be a loser for a long time to come from the sounds of it.
Seems like if they dole them out over the next half-century, it won’t have much if any effect on selling prices.
I suppose there is the off chance that there is some other outside event that will cause banks to dump them over a shorter time frame?
Empty houses fall down.
Houses that can’t be sold end up empty.
I suppose there is the off chance that there is some other outside event that will cause banks to dump them over a shorter time frame?
The only thing I can think that would do it would be for them to be forced to account for them at their actual value.
And when the 20+ million excess empty houses in inventory is combined with the ADDITIONAL 35 MILLION houses that are just beginning to empty as boomers die off, housing will and is becoming a bloated boat anchor falling to near worthlessness.
Don’t be harsh! I am hoping to make you wait a couple or three decades to realize my vacancy.
“Don’t be harsh! I am hoping to make you wait a couple or three decades to realize my vacancy.”
Yes - me too. But Pimpy wants us daid - now! Why live in a body that is a rapidly depreciating asset!
I posit that California’s current candy-crapping unicorn has its roots in the late 1840s, when the first prospectors appeared, searching for gold as the route to easy riches.
Easy riches is embedded in the Cali psyche.
It’s hardly a coincidence that Vegas is so close by.
Cute, but I’d posit that it has it’s roots in the old hacienda system from the Spanish land grants, in which the Padron educated and cared for those who worked his lands. (AG/service sector)
And by 1852 20,000 Chinese a year were immigrating to CA to mine and later work the railroads. The Chinese Consolidated Benevolent Society (based on the old Chinese system of ancestral patronage) was founded in SF in 1850. (Industrial workers sector)
California State Legislature is 21% Hispanic, 17% Asian, with both parties heavily represented.
Florida’s non-current loan rate is about 20% per LPS (loans either in delinquency or in foreclosure). This is far and away the worst in the US.
Additionally, they have some of the most vacant markets in the entire US. Not only have they NOT pushed through their foreclosures, but they have far too many empty homes.
They are not “far far along in getting past this mess”, they are the worst offenders in sweeping it under the rug.
Similar to the efforts of you and your pimps to misrepresent the truth about CA.
We hear you loud and clear.
Here is the data. People can evaluate for themselves:
Non-Current Loan Rate (Per LPS):
FL peaked at 23.8% in February 2010, and now is 19.8%. FL shaved 4 points off (and have another 15 points to go to get to approximately “normal”).
CA peaked at 15.3% in February 2010, and now is 7.9%. CA shaved off 7 points (and have another 3 points to go to get to approximately “normal”).
Rental Vacancy Rate (Per Census):
FL peaked at 18.8% (Q2 2009), and is now at 12.6%.
CA peaked at 8.4% (Q3 2009), and is now at 5.2%.
National average is currently 8.6%.
Homeowner Vacancy Rate (Per Census):
FL peaked at 5.4% (Q1 2007), and is now at 2.1%.
CA peaked at 3.3% (Q1 2008), and is now at 1.4%.
National average is currently 1.9%.
And here’s the truth. People can discern your lies from truth for themselves:
Housing prices are grossly inflated and falling.
Nothing like countering data with unsubstantiated statements.
Deflect from the data…deflect, deflect, deflect.
They’ve been stenching badly, but the Fed hired wall to wall Rug Doctors to mask the rot.
And we’re like the weird cat lady who has gotten used to it and doesn’t realize what it smells like to visitors.
I used to have a neighbor who fit that description to a tee. She even had that smell on her when she went out in public.
“They’ve been stenching badly, but the Fed hired wall to wall Rug Doctors to mask the rot.”
Good metaphor.
‘I’m beside myself. I’m exhausted,’ she said. ‘I’m expecting they’re going to screw me once and for all, at the finish line, when there’s nothing I can do.’”
“They”???? You screwed yourself lady. Just like millions of others before and after you. Just like them, you paid a massively inflated price for what is always a depreciating asset. You didn’t understand going into it. You didn’t and still don’t know what a house is worth or even know what the value of a dollar is. You’re a junkie. A debt junkie.
Lady, here’s hoping they screw you six days to Sunday.
NY Times story about FHA trouble - risky loans
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/13/business/study-shows-a-pattern-of-risky-loans-by-fha.html?hp&_r=0&gwh=2D2D58D6FF8567DA735CBC3F321E2E95
I got this in today:
‘FHA’s New Financing Standards Welcome News for Real Estate Market’
http://www.condo.com/Learn/CondoNews/FHAs-New-Financing-Standards-Welcome-News-for-Real-Estate-Market
Wow…1/2 the units can now be investor owned ?? Sounds like a gift to the big developers…Knowing that they only need to sell 1/2 the project to owner/occupants that may renew there desire to build more…1/10 (old rule) may have been a little stiff but the new rule seems to have swung completely the other way…Guess thats the kind of influence the likes of K&B have…
“The Realtors have called for lawmakers to extend the break, saying, ‘Homeowners shouldn’t be forced to pay tax on money they’ve already lost with cash they never received.’”
They thought they would buy the house with money they hadn’t earned yet (and paid taxes on). They thought this debt would make them rich. Now that reality is setting in, they can leave the casino, but only after a strip search.
Let’s look at this:
‘Homeowners shouldn’t be forced to pay tax on money they’ve already lost with cash they never received’
If they borrowed it and then the house went down in price, didn’t the lender actually put up the money? The law is pretty clear; this is income.
I’m not sure I know what he means by ‘cash they never received.’ If they were refinancing at a higher amount or HELOCing, they sure as hell did receive it. Again, that’s income.
Come to think of it, who do ‘The Realtors’ think they are butting in and saying somebody shouldn’t pay income tax?
Then there’s this:
‘To avoid the tax, homeowners can file bankruptcy or prove to the IRS they are insolvent, with debts outweighing all they own. St. Petersburg tax problems and bankruptcy attorney Larry Heinkel said, ‘Almost everyone who is facing a short sale or foreclosure is also insolvent’
Using this logic the FB SHOULD owe tax if the money was a cash out or HELOC. If they paid too much for the house then the builder or flipper already paid extra taxes on the sale.
It is the taxfree homeowner sales that are keeping money from the IRS.
“What’s more, McCabe said, there are 550,000 Florida homeowners who haven’t received default notices even though they’re at least 90 days delinquent.”
How does the number of delinquents in Florida yet to receive NODs compare to the figure in other places with massive delinquencies (e.g. California)?
In Nevada, notices of default dropped more than 90% after AB284 went into effect in October 2011. Conservative estimates figure it has added nearly 50,000 houses to an already existing shadow inventory estimated at more than 50,000 vacant houses in the Vegas area alone.
This is obviously a lie! These numbers are a coincidence — FHA really knows what they’re doing when they make a loan. And there are tons of new, sustainable, high-paying jobs in Florida, Reno, Phoenix, Sacramento, etc. All you people with your logic and long-term outlet are merely Debbie Downers!
outlook not outlet
You missed DC Metro from your list.
Sadly, at least for the time being DC, SF, NYC still have a lot of high paying jobs. $200k is basically middle manager pay at GSEs, for example.
You always seem to be posting about money. I bet you’re a gas at parties; ‘Hi there, are you new in town? So, how much do you gross?’
HYP education and all. All he’s a paper pusher but thinks he’s way too important and he will survive if shtf.
I’ll survive because I know things can’t last like this.
And the fact that 200k is middle management paper pusher salary in DC is a joke. It’s a sign of how messed up our country is.
I’ve said numerous times that the correct response to the madness, IMO, is to a) live below ones means b) stack cash c) avoid investments you can’t control d) buy up or start local cash-flowing businesses e) avoid taxes and f) continue to make as much as you can for as long as you can, but never assume it will last beyond what you can see.
And, yes, I talk about money a lot here because it’s a way to describe the madness of our current global situation. We all have a good idea what 200k can buy in different places. No way GSE middle management should be earning that after taking a bail out. Many of those morons are “diversity consultants”, HR reps, etc. Few of them do anything directly linked to banking, legal, or accounting. Virtually ALL of that is outsourced (to firms which charge a lot more, sadly)
d) buy up or start local cash-flowing businesses
These assume that your local peeps have “disposable income”. Even the nabe pizza joint relies on that pesky little problem.
I suppose you could start a day-care but then you might want to ask yourself if going to Princeton was worth it.
I suppose living in Dumpsville and buying in a business in Fancyville is a rational strategy. Just make sure you know what you are up against!
“These assume that your local peeps have “disposable income”. Even the nabe pizza joint relies on that pesky little problem.”
I remember a very quiet day at dad’s business back in the early eighties when the interest rates were nearly twenty percent. He said, “We’re dead because our customers are dead.”
The Foreclosure Years Are Ahead Of Us
Will Fred Savage be in this show? How about Winnie Cooper, will there be a Winnie Cooper?
“The Foreclosure Years Are Ahead Of Us”
Understatement of the year.
Realty Trac updated their foreclosure data today. FL is the worst of all at one in 304 homes in foreclosure.
Realty Trac updated their foreclosure data today. CA is the 4th worst of all at one in 430 homes in foreclosure.
And we know it’s likely twice as bad considering the millions of defaults that haven’t been foreclosed on.
Thanks for the update. How many more years (decades?) do you think it will take to work these pigs through the python’s alimentary canal?
For states like FL, they are on pace to take a decade or longer if things aren’t sped up.
In CA (and I’ve been through these numbers with you before), the pace is approximately the same as it was when we went through the numbers last time, which puts substantial clearance of distress toward the end of 2013 (ie. getting the non-current loan rate back to “normal” levels).
I do wonder about that substantial clearance of risk by end 2013! Things look as fragile in CA as anywhere. There is a second shock around the corner I suspect. We’ll see how many tricks the masters of the universe have been hiding up their sleeves.
If you plot the non-current loan rates in CA, the graph you end up with shows a pretty darn steady line downward over the past approximately 2.5 years. I you continue that line for the next 12 months or so, you see the line hitting 5%.
Peak was 15.3% February 2010, now is 7.9% in October 2012. This is a total of 32 months, shaving 7.4%, or 0.23% per month.
We need to get rid of another approximately 2.9% to get to “normal”, which at 0.23% per month is 12.5 months.
If the trend was a month or two at 0.23% reduction per month, I’d be skeptical. Heck, even if it was 12 months into the trend, I’d be nervous extrapolating the next 30 months.
But we have 30 months of data, and the extrapolation is for the next 12 months. There is far more data behind us than in front of us for estimation purposes.
Good to know.
Opened escrow 28 months ago. Closed 22 months ago.
Per resent sales (like right next door) price up about 50% from what I paid.
‘price up about 50% ‘
Yeah, and this being the internet, I found a $100 million lottery ticket! Beat that. I mean Jeebus, sell it for 50% more and let us know how that works out PublicPersona. Why have you waited so long to buy 5 or 10 more? You let the house next door get away from you for a measly 50% more than you paid? Think of the profits! Or are you just (another) zillow wizard?
No details, no area described, nothing. Oh look, ANOTHER big lottery ticket, just right under my desk!
Another Lying Internet Realtor buries realtor credibility just a little deeper.
Sweet!
Are you sure that’s not 1 in 430 going into foreclosure per month?
The number is one in 430 that received a foreclosure filing in the month of November.
I think that includes both new foreclosures, as well as some that were already in foreclosure and received another filing.
CA is the 4th worst of all at one in 430 homes in foreclosure.
Ahhh, a Florida thread. Happy Holidays!
On a somehat-related-to-Florida-and-or-Exeter-note, yours truly is certified to educate and administrate in the first state.
18 months. I will sunset the sunset state.
RESIST!!!
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(sorta) ASCII art FAIL.
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Isn’t this mellow time of year for school admins? Why are you buggin’?
“Isn’t this mellow time of year for school admins?”
Not here.
Let’s try this!
Resist!
Them:
You:

“The property owner, an attorney, knocked him to the ground, grabbed his neck and ripped off his server badge after he tried to present him with foreclosure documents, Greenberg said. ‘It scared the hell out of me,’ the 60-year-old added. ‘I didn’t know what he was going to do. It was like he had rabies.”
A rabid animal… in a cage.
“Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors, predicted that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners would prolong the boom indefinitely.
“South Florida,” he said, “is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/25/business/25boom.html?_r=0
Don’t forget to read Sean Snaith’s U.S. Forecast for FREE (be sure to thank Real Property Specialists for their generous contributions to make future research and publications possible):
http://www.iec.ucf.edu/post/2012/11/27/US-Forecast-December-2012.aspx