The Housing Bubble

And another part of it is a tacit agreement to summarily bend, revise or ignore the laws, as needed.

Jon Corzine = Mascot for New Era of Corruption

It’s been this way for a good while:

‘They’ve got a set of Republican waiters on one side and a set of Democratic waiters on the other side, but no matter which set of waiters brings you the dish, the legislative grub is all prepared in the same Wall Street kitchen.”
— Huey Long

http://www.hueylong.com/perspectives/huey-long-quotes.php

But here’s the problem.

‘Anyone here own 4 suits? Three suits? Even 2 suits? Well J. P. Morgan has over 100 suits, each one stolen off the back of a working man.’ - Huey P. Long

http://politicalquotes.org/node/15702

‘Huey P. Long was one of the most colorful and flamboyant American politicians of the twentieth century. He owned more than a hundred suits, and wore them with orchid shirts, bizarre floral ties and spats.’

‘In Louisiana, he overthrew a political system dominated by wealthy planters and industrialists and the oil industry. State spending rose from $29 million in 1928, when he took office to $83 million in 1931. Meanwhile, the state’s debt climbed from $11 million to $125 million…He had a “deduct” system requiring each state employee to pay 10 percent of his salary to Long’s political machine.’

http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/disp_textbook.cfm?smtID=3&psid=1162

‘Cecil Morgan was a Louisiana state legislator during the era of Huey Long and later a judge. He died at age 100 in 1999. If anyone comprehended the totality of Huey Long, it was Cecil Morgan. He made some remarks about Long in an interview for Ken Burn’s documentary on Huey Long that are particularly perceptive: “He provided about a hundred million dollars worth of good roads. And it only cost a hundred and fifty million…Everything that he did cost more than it should because there was a cushion for other people’s fraud.”

‘Long had a personal secretary named Alice Lee Grosjean. She was an auburn-haired, hazel-eyed beauty and twenty five years of age. In mid-October of 1930 Secretary of State of Louisiana, James J. Bailey, died suddenly of pneumonia. Governor Long went to offer his condolences to the Bailey family. Upon his return he said to his secretary, “Miss Grosjean, write out a commission appointing Miss Alice Lee Grosjean Secretary of State, effective immediately.” She took the oath of office an hour later.’

‘In 1931 when Governor Long was outside of Louisiana the elected Lieutenant Governor, Paul N. Cyr, tried to assume the governorship against Governor Long’s wishes. Long returned and thwarted Cyr’s attempt and furthermore declared that Cyr, by attempting to assume the governorship, had abandoned his lieutenant governorship. Governor Long had his friend Alvin King sworn in as lieutenant governor.’

‘Later after Huey Long was elected senator he made Alvin King Governor of Louisiana, thus vacating the office of Lieutenant Governor. In May of 1932 when Governor King left Louisiana to attend a governors’ conference Secretary of State Alice Lee Grosjean became acting Governor of Louisiana. She had her mother move in with her in the Governor’s Mansion to keep her company.’

http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/hlong.htm

In Louisiana, he overthrew a political system dominated by wealthy planters and industrialists and the oil industry.

1. Huey Long was a champion for the poor and made thousands of lives better in Louisiana.

2. Huey Long took on monopolies corrupt businesses who were gouging the poor and the state.

3. Huey Long was very corrupt, had 100 suits and passed a lot of pork.

There is nothing in any of those points that negates the facts of the other points.

There is nothing in any of those points that negates the facts of the other points.

+1.

1. Huey Long was a champion for the poor and made thousands of lives better in Louisiana.

There is nothing in any of those points that negates the facts of the other points.

Kind of like corrupt unions, huh?

‘There is nothing in any of those points that negates the facts of the other points’

But you put up your own ‘points’ and then say nothing negates the ‘facts’. That’s arguing with your self.

The thing was he had 100 suits and at the same time derided wealthy people for having - 100 suits! (I wonder where he got the suit idea, standing in his closet?)

Here’s another thing; ‘the state’s debt climbed from $11 million to $125 million’

So where did this 100+ million come from? Hmmm, maybe, Wall Street! So the taxpayers are on the hook to big money somewhere. Come on, this guy made some good points but was sketchy as hell. How do we know how he really felt? He may have just said all this populist stuff to get elected. Boy, wouldn’t that be new.

But you put up your own ‘points’ and then say nothing negates the ‘facts’. That’s arguing with your self.

I think more people should argue with themselves. It might make them challenge their own positions more. But even if it’s arguing with myself the “arguing with myself” does not negate any of the Huey Long facts that I posted.

‘the state’s debt climbed from $11 million to $125 million’

Yes, but they got a lot of progress for that debt too. Most poor kids didn’t even have school books before that debt. There were hardly any paved roads. That debt also brought a lot of jobs, greater income equality and more higher education to Louisiana including a new medical school. LSU was Huey’s baby and he built it into a legit university.

this guy made some good points but was sketchy as hell.

I agree. I don’t know what we’re arguing about.

I have worked with one of his direct descendants, as I have stated here before. This person was an alpha for sure and one-in-a-thousand or better.

I can only imagine what Ol’ Huey must have been like.

Such arrangements can backfire badly.

Who Shot Huey Long?
AP
Published: June 27, 1991

A team of experts undertaking a new investigation of the 1935 assassination of Senator Huey P. Long will exhume the remains of the young doctor long believed to have fired the fatal shot, a researcher says.

James E. Starrs, a forensic scientist at George Washington University in Washington, said the team would travel to Baton Rouge in October to dig up the remains of Dr. Carl A. Weiss.

Long, a populist former Governor, was known as “the Kingfish.” His popularity extended beyond the borders of Louisiana when he was assassinated at the age of 42. He had let it be known that he would be a third-party candidate for President in 1936 or 1940.
…

I think more people should argue with themselves. It might make them challenge their own positions more.

I never respect a man for having the courage of his own convictions. I respect a man for having the courage to question his own convictions.

-Friedrich Nietzsche

In Louisiana, he overthrew a political system dominated by wealthy planters and industrialists and the oil industry.

Rio wrote:

1. Huey Long was a champion for the poor and made thousands of lives better in Louisiana.

2. Huey Long took on monopolies corrupt businesses who were gouging the poor and the state.

3. Huey Long was very corrupt, had 100 suits and passed a lot of pork.

There is nothing in any of those points that negates the facts of the other points.

This is how a Mafia boss operates. A certain number of people loved John Gotti too because of his good works. They weren’t exposed to, or simply ignored, the thieving and killing.

This is how a Mafia boss operates.

Even if true, that still would not negate any of my points on Huey Long. I suggest you study the history of early 20th Century American political machines. Huey Long didn’t make those things up all by himself.

Hey soul sister
Ain’t that mister mister
On the radio, the stereo
The way you look ain’t fair, you know

-Thomas Jefferson

The free sh*t army will not vote or support candidates that will take away their free government cheese… after they’ve taken away their jobs.

+1

ESPECIALLY.

Will you please keep your facts out of the way of the hokey folk wisdom, Rio.

I see. She believes trees grow to the sky, and real estate always goes up. She’ll ride it all the way into the ground. Perfect.

She considered that 10 years ago. It’s worth a lot more now.

Everyone looks like an investment genius while a bubble is inflating…

If she’s astute, she can sell at peak. In the US, the “peak” lasted almost all of 2006 so she’ll have plenty of time to see if coming. Even if she’s a little late she can still unload if she undercuts her hood by 5%.

I see. She believes trees grow to the sky, and real estate always goes up. She’ll ride it all the way into the ground. Perfect.

Yeaup….. That’s precisely what suckers do…. kicking and screaming all the way down.

Let go or be dragged.

“…kicking and screaming all the way down.”

Also expecting, and often receiving, bailouts.

‘Fiscal cliff’ deal saved New Jersey homeowners underwater from tax man
Tom De Poto/The Star-Ledger By Tom De Poto/The Star-Ledger
on January 06, 2013 at 8:22 AM,
updated January 06, 2013 at 1:00 PM

When Congress voted Tuesday to save the country from plunging off the so-called fiscal cliff, it also extended a tax break for struggling homeowners that will help the housing market, especially in New Jersey, according to several analysts.

President George W. Bush signed the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act into law in 2007 to help homeowners whose debt exceeded the market value of their house. Prior to that, having a portion of a mortgage forgiven was considered taxable income.

The tax break was scheduled to expire in the new year, but has been extended through 2013. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it may cost the federal government $1.3 billion in lost revenue.

Despite the potential loss to the Treasury, “It was an intelligent decision the first time and it was intelligent to do it again,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of the Pompton Plains-based mortgage research firm HSH.com
…

“…it also extended a tax break for struggling homeowners that will help the housing market…”

The housing market must be helped by all means necessary, even if it involves handing out hundreds of thousands of dollars in tax-free income to underwater borrowers.

Agreed. They’re coming down hard on places on Maui for the same reasons. If they can’t derive revenue from it, they try to enforce laws to derive it.

Because it’s not “your” house. More:

—–
“Owners have a remedy for such action – they can file a petition with the Rent Board claiming the tenant is not occupying their unit as their principal residence. A hearing officer would then almost assuredly eliminate the tenant’s rent control protections, and the landlord would soon recover the unit.”
—–

If the tenant is renting the apartment for a rent controlled price, and then collecting market rental rates from tourists for the apartment, isn’t the tenant effectively stealing the difference?

Why should it be illegal for you to allow 1000 people live to in your house?

I misread this earlier. Didn’t read the word “tenants” properly. The contract the owner has with the tenant should state whether they can sublet it or not.

There was a bistro set (table and two chairs) for $99. The sign also offered financing.

Outstanding!

I was in BigLots a discount store for closeout items.

They sell absolute cr@p. I happened by probably five years ago, and bought a simple metal can-opener–ya know, the simple old presumably-indestructible kind that our grandmothers used to use. It shattered on the first can I tried to open, with the sharp metal tang that is supposed to pierce the can flying past near my eye instead.

It was only $0.99, so I didn’t bother to return it. But I don’t plan to buy anything there ever again.

They have changed…Big Lots is really a liquidator for other companies now.

not too much for teenagers who live at home and can save everything they earn

H aha hahah a!!!

Kids aren’t earning that money. Parents replenish the Bieber cards from their own checking accounts. The modern way of giving an allowance.

The billmyparents cards sound pretty good. The parent can filter and track the kid’s purchases. If mom doesn’t like what Junior bought, she can lock the card.

Big Lots is really a liquidator for other companies now.

Yeah. I find some good deals there, especially after season. The stuff varies wildly in quality, you wanna check it out in person.

I’ll gladly pay you ten years from Tuesday, for a hamburger today…

As long as you pay 0% interest, it’s all good.

Add To the list:

A “libertarian” government contractor who’s not a hypocrite and/or a fraud.

Go pleasure yourself Rio. And eat your black heart out as well.

Go pleasure yourself Rio.

Why? It already was a pleasure describing “Libertarian” government contractors as hypocrites and frauds.

One can only have so much fun on a Sunday.

I wouldn`t do that if I were you Rio, someone may call you a sperm donor and hit you up for child support.

You mean CANDIDATE Barack Obama said that adding $4 trillion in debt was irresponsible and “unpatriotic”, don’t you?

Yes, he said it as a candidate in July of 2008 before the wheels came off of an economy who’s tax base and jobs structure had been gutted like a fish to benefit the rich.

The US Government now have a $16 Trillion deficit and borrows 45 cents of every dollar it spends.

Yes. And mostly because the wheels came off of an economy who’s tax base and jobs structure had been gutted like a fish to benefit the rich.

Newsflash:
Obama won the election. (again) Pointing out things like the Obama quote of 2008 will not get Obama unelected. (Even if you point it out out of context)

“Pointing out things like the Obama quote of 2008 will not get Obama unelected.”

And this fact gives him a pass.

And this fact gives him a pass.

No. This gives him a “pass”. (Did you miss it?)

Obama said it as a candidate in July of 2008 before the wheels came off of an economy who’s tax base and jobs structure had been gutted like a fish to benefit the rich.

If it doesn’t matter what a candidate for public office has to say then why bother to listen to him in the first place?

If it’s not important to pay attention to what the candidate has to say they what should be the criteria for casting your vote to him?

If it’s not important to pay attention to what the candidate has to say they what should be the criteria for casting your vote to him?

If it’s not important for you to pay attention to the historical context of a candidate’s words and the subsequent sequence of historical events, then what should be the criteria for someone to value your opinion?

Bashing Obama for that July 2008 Obama quote about deficit spending BEFORE the Great Recession hit is about as logical as bashing Franklin Roosevelt for this quote BEFORE Pearl Harbor was attacked:

- FDR, Speech in Boston, October 30, 1940.

“I have said this before, but I shall say it again and again and again:
(American) boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars.
They are going into training to form a force so strong that, by its very existence, it will keep the threat of war far away from our shores. The purpose of our defense is defense.”

source: UCSB American Presidency Project
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/site/docs/pppus.php?admin=032&year=1940&id=127

From what I am hearing….

But pay attention Albuquerquedan. You have a hard time comprehending the written word so maybe you hear wrong too.

You said I said Brazil was not in a housing bubble. Wrong. I’ve said many times it could be a bubble. I actually think it is a type of a bubble. But it also is different here. None of those statements negate the others. For you this might be too complicated. I could post dozens of my prior Brazil housing posts addressing Brazil’s possible bubble. Here’s just one.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil 2011-02-25 05:20:23
“…..Rio gets the World Cup in 2014, The Olympics in 2016, Carnaval every year is the “capital” of Brazil’s oil, entertainment and cultural industries and Brazil is on a commodities boom.

What makes it different is that mortgages are still a tiny part of the market compared to the USA. Most those rich Apts. sell for cash. I’d say 65-75% of Rio’s Apartments are owned free and clear.”

I have been a hell of lot more right about the economy of Brazil then you have, what is your growth rate now Rio? Getting a little nervous about your property and that is why you are so cranky? Every idiot in the world says it is different here, until it is not. Below is much more of you quote and no we are not jealous. Any one that can excuse the conditions in the sugar fields of Brazil and then find fault with the U.S. is either a hypocrite or is so blinded by ideology he cannot analysis anything. Maybe that is why you need to attack my correct predictions of the Brazil economy.

I’ve see no correction in Rio in high-end properties but they mostly are all-cash deals with half the cash delivered in a bag or briefcase (so I’ve heard) But we all know every economy and every housing market in the world has corrections. Bring it on. My house is paid for 3 times over and I like LIVING in it.

And you guys up there in the damp and cold who want to razz Brazil because of my politics or because the Repubs can’t win a national election anymore? Or because you’re jealous? Now that’s petty.

I just got back from walking Ipanema beach.

BTW, Rio what is the average IQ in Brazil about 87 isn’t it? You must feel right at home.

lmao

If this information is to be believed, both the first and second derivatives of Brazil’s GDP are positive.

What’s your point, AQDan?

Brazil GDP Growth Rate

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Brazil expanded 0.60 percent in the third quarter of 2012 over the previous quarter. GDP Growth Rate in Brazil is reported by the IBGE. Historically, from 1996 until 2012, Brazil GDP Growth Rate averaged 0.8 Percent reaching an all time high of 4.5 Percent in September of 1996 and a record low of -4.2 Percent in December of 2008. Brazil is the sixth largest economy in the world and the largest in Latin America. In recent years, the country has been one of the fastest-growing economies in the world primarily due to its export potential. The country’s trade is driven by its extensive natural resources and diverse agricultural and manufacturing production. Also, rising domestic demand, increasingly skilled workforce along with scientific and technological development, have attracted foreign direct investment. However, bureaucracy, corruption and weak infrastructure remain the biggest obstacles to economic development. This page includes a chart with historical data for Brazil GDP Growth Rate.

“…average IQ in Brazil about 87…”

IQ test scores are on a normal scale with a mean of 100.

Unless it’s different in Brazil, I’d guess the average IQ is about 100.

No CBIT that is the average IQ of Brazil 87, look it up and then you can do your cut and paste.

BTW, do you even understand derivatives, the economy maybe slowly growing (at pace where the average person becomes poorer) but at a slower pace so where do you get the growing at the second derivative?

Average IQ by country.

Rank Country IQ estimate Rank Country IQ estimate Rank Country IQ estimate
1 Hong Kong 107 28 Russia 96 55 Fiji 84
2 South Korea 106 29 Slovakia 96 56 Iran 84
3 Japan 105 30 Uruguay 96 57 Marshall Islands 84
4 Taiwan 104 31 Portugal 95 58 Puerto Rico 84
5 Singapore 103 32 Slovenia 95 59 Egypt 83
6 Austria 102 33 Israel 94 60 India 81
7 Germany 102 34 Romania 94 61 Ecuador 80
8 Italy 102 35 Bulgaria 93 62 Guatemala 79
9 Netherlands 102 36 Ireland 93 63 Barbados 78
10 Sweden 101 37 Greece 92 64 Nepal 78
11 Switzerland 101 38 Malaysia 92 65 Qatar 78
12 Belgium 100 39 Thailand 91 66 Zambia 77
13 China (PRC) 100 40 Croatia 90 67 Republic of the Congo 73
14 New Zealand 100 41 Peru 90 68 Uganda 73
15 United Kingdom 100 42 Turkey 90 69 Jamaica 72
16 Hungary 99 43 Indonesia 89 70 Kenya 72
17 Poland 99 44 Suriname 89 71 South Africa 72
18 Spain 99 45 Colombia 89 72 Sudan 72
19 Australia 98 46 Brazil 87 73 Tanzania 72
20 Denmark 98 47 Iraq 87 74 Ghana 71
21 France 98 48 Mexico 87 75 Nigeria 67
22 Norway 98 49 Samoa 87 76 Guinea 66
23 United States 98 50 Tonga 87 77 Zimbabwe 66
24 Canada 97 51 Lebanon 86 78 Congo 65
25 Czech Republic 97 52 Philippines 86 79 Sierra Leone 64
26 Finland 97 53 Cuba 85 80 Ethiopia 63
27 Argentina 96 54 Morocco 85 81 Equatorial Guinea 59

The growth rate went up in recent quarters. This increase in the growth rate of GDP is an increase in the second derivative.

It’s not rocket science.

“…an increase in the second derivative.”

Oops — I meant to say it’s a positive second derivative.

Maths and drinking don’t mix!

No CBIT, it did not go up in recent quarters that is the whole point. BTW, an article that has Brazilian real estate overpriced by 50%, that does not meet the wall street definition of a correct that would be a bear market:

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Latin-America/Brazil/Price-History

Thanks for posting the IQ, 87 just like I said. It can be found on the 19 line.

BTW, as far as the derivative argument your statement is only true if you are comparing it to the 2008 numbers but if you are comparing it to the last two years it is very wrong, but since we did not agree on the start date, we can both be right.

Getting a little nervous about your property and that is why you are so cranky?

If I were nervous, I would sell today for over 3 times as much as I have in it. But why should I sell? Rent is very high here for nice stuff. I have no mortgage, I have no rent payments. Property tax in Rio is pretty low. I live 4 blocks from the beach and I don’t even need to own a car. My total monthly nut is way less than most Americans pay for their cars.

BTW, I can’t believe you think it bothers me that you insult Brazil. Why should I care what you think of Brazil? Not only do I not respect most of your opinions but I’m not even Brazilian. Brazil’s IQ of 87? Why would that bother me? It would only make me a relative Einstein.

You are not insulting me when you insult Brazil. It’s actually funny that you have to resort to that to try to upset me. I just live in one of the world’s most beautiful cities, with the beach, the ocean, the mountains, the beautiful people, I’m self-employed and I don’t have to pay squat for housing health-care or transportation.

So how’s Albuquerque treating you dan?

Have not seen the post link about Brazilian property being overvalued by 50% which would not lead to a correction but a bear market. I hope it posts soon.

Have not seen the post link about Brazilian property being overvalued by 50%

You make me laugh because you actually think I care much about Brazilian property values. Your comprehension skills must lie well below the average Brazilian’s.

Look. I’m not selling. I really don’t care much. Even a Brazilian recession would not affect me much. As long me and mine are healthy……I’m golden. Golden dude…….Do you know how that feels?

lmao

You’re not really laughing at his comment “Pimp Watch”. You’re just trying to get back at me for CRUSHING your point that rents were falling when I posted 21 November and December articles and studies that showed rents rising in 21 different large markets. Your response? Something like I was “quoting a realtor”.

You never had a bad thing to say about my posts until I pointed out (as many now have) that you’ve now become a one-trick-pony and that you ignore data Pimp Watch.

Your not lmao-ing at me. Your just pi$$ed off at me.

You’re being laughed at. You’re just to stupid to realize it. And yes… rental rates are falling in every MSA in the country.

But do go on with your realtor self.

“Wrong. I’ve said many times…”

Nah, you’re just back peddling. Saying Brazil was in a bubble used to send you into a rage. Not that it takes much.

Nah, you’re just back peddling. Saying Brazil was in a bubble used to send you into a rage.

Wrong. Prove it. I’ve proved you are wrong. I’ve said Brazil could be in a bubble but it was different here.

I don’t think you have the comprehension to recognize it can be both. I’m not surprised.

You’re being laughed at.

The only ones “laughing” at me don’t like my politics or have been embarrassed by my facts disproving their points as you were. I haven’t myself but I have noticed that at least 5 posters have questioned your mental-health in regards to your degenerating housing posts - calling women “hookers” “Pimps” etc. You need to take it down a notch as FPSSS told you yesterday. And when someone like FPSSS says you need to take it down a notch, you are really over the top.

rental rates are falling in every MSA in the country.

Prove it. Here’s 21 articles and studies proving you are wrong.

Case-Shiller Home Prices Show Strong Gain in October 2012
Global Economic Intersection-6 hours ago
“With lower rental vacancy rates and rising rents, combined with still historically favorable affordability conditions, more people are buying …

Apartment rents rise, vacancies fall in St. Louis
STLtoday.com-Dec 24, 2012
Landlords are raising the rent in the St. Louis area, and tenants have to pay up. The market for apartments and rental houses here is swinging …

Home prices and rents continue to rise
San Jose Mercury News-Dec 17, 2012
Home seekers continue to face the twin challenge of rising home prices and rents, especially if they want to live in the Bay Area. In San …

Rents to rise at steady clip, forecast says
USA TODAY-Nov 26, 2012
Rents will keep rising, more than 4% a year for 2014 and 2015, says market researcher Reis. “The pendulum has definitely swung back in favor …

Report: Rising Brooklyn Rents Giving Manhattan A Run For Its Money
Gothamist-Dec 12, 2012
Rents in Brooklyn are getting closer and closer to the rents in Manhattan (Rbudh’s flickr). Once upon a time Manhattanites turned to Brooklyn …

Apartment rents rising in WI, nation
WEAU-TV 13-Nov 28, 2012
Apartment rents rising in WI, nation. EAU CLAIRE, Wisc. … Landlords said with other rising costs, it’s a necessary change. Everett Blakeley …

Rent hikes forecast for industrial, office buildings
OCRegister-Dec 7, 2012
Rents will rise and vacancies will drop over the next two year for Orange County office and industrial buildings, according to the Casden …

ARLA predicts rising rents and sector scrutiny for 2013
Mortgage Introducer-Dec 21, 2012
The Association of Residential Lettings Agents has predicted that 2013 will continue to see rising rents as demand continues to outstrip supply …

Five Things Driving Rising Home Prices in Snellville
Patch.com-10 hours ago
The Rise in Rents: More investors are cashing in on this and more renters are questioning their decision to rent. I have investors now who are willing and able to …

US Real Estate Update: Rents Rise
Live Trading News-Dec 12, 2012
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, today released its December MarketPulse report.

Home sales rise in November
e-wisdom.com-5 hours ago
“With lower rental vacancy rates and rising rents, combined with still historically favorable affordability conditions, more people are buying …

‘New York Magazine’ Explores the Fascinating World of SF’s …
SFist-1 hour ago
… over the fact that the buses have a direct relationship to rising rents and gentrification in certain neighborhoods, like the Divisadero corridor.

39% of landlords expect rents to rise
Landlord Expert-Dec 12, 2012
image landlords polled by LSL Property Services expect to increase rents in the coming 12 months with 10% anticipating rises greater than 5%.

REAL ESTATE-Olick
CNBC.com-by Diana Olick-Dec 2, 2012
Mortgage rates will likely rise off their historic lows, but not significantly. Apartment rents will stay elevated and vacancies low despite the …

2013: How Rising Prices Could Boost Housing Demand
Wall Street Journal (blog)-Dec 18, 2012
Meanwhile, rising rents are likely to encourage more renters to buy. Finally, low prices and unattractive returns on other assets have fueled …

Rising demand, scarce supply bolsters home prices
Inman.com-Dec 20, 2012
“With lower rental vacancy rates and rising rents, combined with historically favorable affordability conditions, more people are buying homes.” …

Consumers Climb Out of Debt
Wall Street Journal-Dec 23, 2012
Rents are rising, pushing up the share of renters’ income that goes to required financial obligations to 24.1% in the third quarter, the highest …

Five Reasons Home Prices Have Been Rising
Wall Street Journal (blog)-Nov 27, 2012
Rents are rising. Falling mortgage rates and improving job growth didn’t do much for housing last year, in part because buyers didn’t have …

Upward trend for rents set to continue
FarmersWeekly-Dec 5, 2012
Values have continued to rise on more recently reviewed rents, said Rupert Clark, head of rural management at Smiths Gore. “We have had a …

Soaring Rents Drive Apartment Boom
CNBC.com-Dec 6, 2012
But as part of a national rush to capitalize on rising rents, … While rents are still rising, analysts say the steep increases between 2011 and 2012 …

Grounds for optimism on cliff
Philadelphia Inquirer-Dec 23, 2012
With rents rising strongly almost everywhere across the country, the decision to buy is becoming much easier to make. The main threat to this …

Rio, I like Albuquerque very much, so much that I don’t need to tell everyone how much I like it everyday. We have enough comprehension to know you cannot be a little pregnant. You either are or you are not. You cannot be in bubble but it is so different that the bubble will not bust.

You either are or you are not. You cannot be in bubble but it is so different that the bubble will not bust.

Who said it can’t burst? Me? No. Right there is your lack of critical thinking again and your inability to understand differentiation. That and your politics is why you are lousy at interpreting data, trends and reports.

It can be a bubble that bursts and still be very different at the same time.

USA total mortgage debt equaling 70% of GDP vs Brazil’s 5% is different.

75% of Brazilians owning their home outright vs 30% of Americans is different.

Banks only loaning for 20 years with an average of 30% down here is different.

If you were not so blinded by politics, you’d be very interested in the differences of Brazil’s housing market. Instead you just blindly bash Brazil because you don’t like me. It’s funny.

I like Albuquerque very much, so much that I don’t need to tell everyone how much I like it everyday.

There is your lack of comprehension again. I explain I like my house and situation so you understand I don’t really give a fart about any bubble. I’m golden, remember?

‘don’t like my politics or have been embarrassed by my facts’

Yeah, it’s always fools who disagree with you huh? But let’s take your list of quotes:

‘the decision to buy is becoming much easier to make…part of a national rush to capitalize on rising rents…more people are buying homes…rising rents are likely to encourage more renters to buy…demand continues to outstrip supply…more renters are questioning their decision to rent…tenants have to pay up…more people are buying’

If you don’t know propaganda when you see it, that’s your problem. I’ve been asking for a long time; how are rents going up in a recession? And if they are, doesn’t that mean working people have less to spend on everything else, prolonging the recession? And what about your idol, Obama: he’s working hard to keep houses off the market you know. There are empty houses everywhere. Are you proud that you “progressives” are making life worse for working people? Oh yeah, it helps banks and landlords. Whoopee! More tooling for the 1%, eh? And as an added bonus, more fools might borrow a ton of money and buy a house because they believe this BS. Wow, there’s a whole lot there to be proud of. Instead of nit-picking on my blog, why don’t you work to make life a little better for people who don’t have as much. And you can start by asking these Democrats in government to STOP HOARDING HOUSES!

Yeah, it’s always fools who disagree with you huh?

I did not say that. What I said was:

“The only ones “laughing” at me don’t like my politics or have been embarrassed by my facts disproving their points…”

From what I read, this is a factual statement.

If you don’t know propaganda when you see it, that’s your problem.

But many of those 21 stories about rising rents and home prices were facts and data comparing sales past and present, not propaganda. For Example: Those Case Schiller numbers are not propaganda. At least not that I know of.

And what about your idol, Obama:

Obama is not my idol. I just like him a lot better than the current Republicans. And hey, I HOPE American home prices fall because someday I will move back to America. I own no USA real estate. Why would I want higher home prices in America??

“And you can start by asking these Democrats in government to STOP HOARDING HOUSES!”

December 14, 2012, 4:36 PM
Home Prices Could Jump 9.7% in 2013, J.P. Morgan Says
By Al Yoon

Home-price forecasts for 2013 are on the rise.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. expects U.S. home prices to rise 3.4% in its base-case estimate and up to 9.7% in its most bullish scenario of economic growth. Standard & Poor’s, which rates private-issue mortgage bonds, on Friday said it expects a 5% rise in 2013.

The J.P. Morgan analysts boosted their base-case estimate from 1.5% after a convincing rise in the “net demand” for housing this year has surpassed 2 million homes for the first time since 2006, said John Sim, a strategist at the investment bank. Net demand is the pace of existing home sales minus the inventory of homes available for sale.

“Net demand has picked up a lot in 2012,” said Mr. Sim. “Once you get north of the 2 million territory, you are in the positive growth area unless you get a lot of distressed inventory, which this year hit a low point” since at least 2008, he added. J.P. Morgan predicts that net demand to rise from 2.7 million next year from 2.3 million this year.

An expected increase in home prices in 2012 triggered a run into some of the riskiest real estate assets, such as subprime mortgage-backed securities from the real estate boom, and analysts including Mr. Sim expect that trend to continue. Rising home prices and the quest for yield has also given a tailwind to new mortgage bond issuance that has been mired in the fallout of the housing crisis and regulatory uncertainty for the past four years.

U.S. home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.3% in October, the biggest increase since June 2006, according to CoreLogic. Investors zoning in on the increases bought subprime mortgage bonds, which have posted returns of more than 40% since December.

Home price increases could exceed J.P. Morgan’s base forecast if investors seeking yield push deeper into real estate, according to Mr. Sim’s home price report.

That may already be happening, considering recent comments by Luke Scolastico, a vice president at Credit Suisse, one of two issuers of mortgage bonds without government backing since the financial crisis. Credit Suisse is increasing its purchases of jumbo loans to meet demand for securities it sees from investors, he said on an American Securitization Forum panel this week.

“We’re buying loans, every day…and (on the month,) more than the month before,” Mr. Scolastico said. Part of the reason is because of home price appreciation, but also because of the “technical demand” for relatively higher yielding assets as Federal Reserve policies depress interest rates, he said.

New mortgage bond sales from other issuers, including investment banks, could boost issuance of private label bonds this year as high as $30 billion, Mr. Sim said. That’s up from almost $5 billion this year but paltry compared with annual volume above $1 trillion generated as the housing bubble neared its breaking point in 2006.

Mortgage bonds issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae still fund more than 90% of new home loans. Bank portfolios and other private lending make up the rest.

Considering risks, J.P. Morgan analysts conceded that the economy is “gloomy” and tight lending standards can stop a bullish homebuyer from proceeding with a purchase. On the supply side, the “shadow inventory” of more than four million homes near or stuck in foreclosure still looms, though that is dropping, the analysts said.
…

‘not propaganda’

Can you read?

‘demand continues to outstrip supply…more renters are questioning their decision to rent…tenants have to pay up…more people are buying’

Hurry hurry, it’s almost too late! You’ll never own a house if you don’t act now! Jeebus, I’ve been watching this stuff for many years. One has to think for oneself. Again; how is it possible for rents to be rising in a recession, with empty houses everywhere? This is a suckers game and I ain’t playing.

Rio is just another dishonest, disingenuous, truth distorting spammer.

It’s time.

“I’ve been asking for a long time; how are rents going up in a recession?”

He may not know it, but I think PW has the answer to this question. His comments about houses depreciating/deteriorating. It could be that landlords are taking maintenance costs into account now. During earlier years their focus was on appreciation and cash flow and maintenance costs were secondary considerations.

AlbuquerqueDan and Ben, you both rule! Thanks!

You seem to pay a lot of attention to what your house is worth

I think because people needlessly harass her about buying.

Grizzly, I would pay a lot less attention if HBB didn’t scream at me daily that my house was depreciating. I check Zillow to defend myself against you, not because I’m speculating.

It seems unfair to single out Oxide’s housing euphoria, given the entire MSM financial press corps is saying the exact same thing.

KENNETH HARNEY NATION’S HOUSING
REAL ESTATE REBOUND SEEN IN RISING EQUITY, FALLING INVENTORY
By U-T San Diego
12:01 a.m., Jan. 6, 2013
Updated 4:33 p.m. , Jan. 4, 2013

With all the depressing reports about the “fiscal cliff” and potential rollbacks in tax benefits for homeowners, you might have missed some of the positive trends under way for real estate.

Start with homeowners’ equity. It’s growing again significantly, following five years of declines and stagnation. This is a huge piece of good news that hasn’t received the attention it deserves. After hitting a low of $6.45 trillion in the final three months of 2011, Americans’ combined home equity jumped nearly $1.3 trillion during the next nine months to $7.71 trillion — a 20 percent gain — according to the “flow of funds” quarterly estimate released in December by the Federal Reserve.

A homeowner’s equity is the difference between the market value of his or her house and the amount of mortgage debt it is carrying. Equity is a key measure of wealth — often the largest single item on a family’s financial balance sheet — and the Federal Reserve tracks the estimated equity holdings of millions of owners to come up with its quarterly numbers. As recently as 2007, homeowners’ collective equity exceeded $10.2 trillion. Between that year and late 2011, owners lost nearly $4 trillion in real estate wealth.

So the $1.3 trillion turnaround during the first nine months of 2012 was a big deal. It reflected the first sustained rebound in home prices in a long time in many local real estate markets. In a study released just before Christmas, researchers at Zillow.com found that of 177 major metropolitan markets, 135 had experienced net increases in cumulative home values during 2012.

Zillow broke it down into specific dollar amounts added to owners’ net worth, city by city: Owners in Los Angeles gained a cumulative $122.1 billion during the year, Washington, D.C., owners $40.4 billion, San Diego $31.2 billion, Seattle $20.1 billion, Boston just under $16 billion, Tampa, Fla., $8 billion, Sarasota, Fla., $5 billion, Tucson, Ariz., $3.8 billion, Oklahoma City $3.3 billion and Columbus, Ohio, $3.5 billion.

These are big numbers and hard to grasp, but think of it this way: The odds are good that even if you own in a market that experienced severe price declines during the housing bust, the value of your house rose last year, at least modestly. Even if you have negative equity, it’s likely that, thanks to appreciation in your area and your continuing payment of principal on your mortgage, your equity position improved.
…

I have never once criticized your purchase, but I think you get too wrapped up in what your house is worth. I wish you would stick with your old style of commenting. I liked it much more, and think you have a lot to offer if you would just quit talking about the house. Live in the thing and forget about the value. It doesn’t matter if it is worth half of what you paid, you have a roof over your head that you like.

And we wouldn’t tell you about how ALL manmade items depreciate if you weren’t seeking validation everyday.

“I have never once criticized your purchase, but I think you get too wrapped up in what your house is worth.”

Again, she is just going with the flow, as the entire MSM financial press corps is stuck in the same muddle-headed bubble talk.

We never made it past the denial stage of the bubble just yet; once we do, watch out below.

“…ALL manmade items depreciate…”

Properly maintained, a violin will last for centuries and actually appreciate in value.

Not so much American-made houses.

How many violins have been manufactured/assembled in the last 500 years? Tens of millions?

And what percentage of them are worth more today? 0.000001%?

A lot of my old style posts were complaining about the rent. I thought I was adding a local observation that houses in my nabe are under contract. Confirmed my zillow, not just the MSM. Zestimates are joining in the cheerleading.

The flipped house I talked about is on the stoplit corner of a busy (think buses and schoolbuses) 4-lane commuter road on a plot that is small for a corner. The flip only took a month to complete, and was the usual paint, kitchen, and finished the basement with a new bath.

I don’t know where people are getting that kind of money. FHA is no bed of tulips. Yes you get 3.5% down, but you have to pay a monthly FHA fee and more expensive PMI. It’s almost not worth it.

“And what percentage of them are worth more today? 0.000001%?”

You are right: I should have qualified my statement…

fine violins.

So a very tiny percentage of all violins…. Less than 0.5% maybe?

Oxy, you may not realize it but you were pretty manic about the house you bought, and you ridiculed us. You were going to get the big payoff, end up with a big pile of cash, huge pile of cash. Rent is cash in the trash…. Now you say you are just defending yourself. I expect you are, but not from us.

Oxy, you may not realize it but you were pretty manic about the house you bought, and you ridiculed us

She didn’t. She defended herself from you guys ridiculing her. Don’t re-write history Sky.

Wrong again. She’s a bragging but foolish debt-junkie just like you.

She’s a bragging but foolish debt-junkie just like you.

Debt junkie? Me? Are you delusional too? I’ve stated many times I own my house outright 3 times over. (for now)

The only debt I have is $322 on my Visa Card that I’ll pay in full on the 17th of Jan.

Actually, I am owed money.

You’re a debt junkie and a pimp.

“I own my house outright 3 times over.”

There is crazy, and there is bat-s4it-crazy.

There is crazy, and there is bat-s4it-crazy.

And there is owning a house that is worth 3 times as much as I paid for it.

Will that last? Probably not. Is it true now? Yes. And you’re just jealous.

“You were going to get the big payoff, end up with a big pile of cash, huge pile of cash. Rent is cash in the trash…. ”

Well technically, the big payoff and pile of cash would come about 25 years from now, when the house is paid off and if/when I sell it. This is not bragging; it’s the very reason people buy, yo hello. But was I counting on the bubble appreciation fairy to give me a big pile in a couple years? Heavens no.

‘Big payoff’? What’s stunning is your public admission that you believe that falsehood.

Its a loss. Eventually you will understand this truth but not until you sustain the loss yourself.

I think you have me confused with another poster. My statement was meant as a joke, as in, “if you think that guy can deliver more, because you deliver more, please see a doctor immediately. Something is leaking.”

That kind of thing.

I think you have me confused with another poster.

I obviously did with someone who changes his name all the time. Sorry.

I live in Florida, where it is HOT and HUMID.

(Don’t do either if you don’t like them. Problem solved.) But this shaking down of men for money by women to pay for women’s babies is the problem. Can’t have it both ways ladies. Can’t claim it is your baby when you want to kill but your and the father’s baby when the bill$ arrive.

Right on the money, 100%.

Aren’t all of those scenarios mutually exclusive? I’m not following the double-standard.

In this case, it is not the mother demanding money from the sperm donor. It is the state. My personal opinion is that the female partner should be responsible, but that would require the state of Kansas to recognize gay marriage.

In cases of rape, the father sure as hell should be responsible for child support. But they often get out of it by trading lack of contact for lack of support.