Bits Bucket for January 16, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here. And check out Chomp, Chomp, Chomp by a regular poster!
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here. And check out Chomp, Chomp, Chomp by a regular poster!
Polly
Thank you for the CL anecdote and feedback. If it doesn’t sell, I’ll donate the suite to The Assoc. Of Retarded Citizen’s Thrift Store.
Az Slim
Great Blog. Your photography speaks for itself, and your topics are interesting.
It’s bloody cold in So Ca these days. Our front lawn is iced, and as soon as the pool freezes over, I’ll get out my ice skates. lol
Gotta love Mother Nature.
Thank you, inchbyinch!
Very welcome. I think you’ll do fine. Please remember that no shows (on appointments to pay/pick up) are very common.
“Do not risk your financial health. The housing market is wildly inflated”
It is? By how much?
Ryan my Real Estate Professional….. how’s business going these days?
If I were in Real Estate these days, I would probably be making some fat commissions. Things are selling in my zip code. Prices are going up, Fed shows no signs of slowing. Keep second guessing the Fed, they can keep playing longer than you or I can stay solvent.
Tell me more about how prices will crash 65%, better yet tell us all about the timeline for this crash. Even better still, tell us about the events which will precipitate this downward motion.
I’m waiting to be amazed. So please, amaze me.
Things are selling in my zip code. Prices are going up,
Of course they are my Real Estate Professional! That’s your narrative. You know nothing else but how to lie and misrepresent the truth irrespective of the consequences to those who are too dumb to know better.
Nothing has changed with your Real Estate Professionals. You’re as dishonest, untrustworthy and corrupt as you’ve ever been.
Why be truthful now “ryan”?
Your inability to address the questions presented to you hints at either cowardice to put forth an opinion or incompetence.
Choose. Choose wisely.
We don’t need any hints on your inability to be truthful.
Pathetic.
Go ahead Real Real Estate Professional….. tell us more tall tales.
You’re on fire today! I just started my readings this minute, hope to see more of this.
Henny Penny
Says who?
Ben’s posts seem to mostly contain anectdotal evidence regarding the inexplicible (prices holding and/or rising).
Why not validate your claims with actual data?
Without annotation it is only squawking, my fine feathered friend.
‘anectdotal evidence regarding the inexplicible…Without annotation it is only squawking’
Do you talk like that in person?
Ben. Only sometimes. Obviously pw has your blessings. I ll just mosey on then….you have no need for any more accounts by me nor shall I bother trolling the resident liar for kicks. I guess you like him or are him or something.
That’s stunning. A real estate professional calling someone else a liar.
A real estate professional
The dude’s a teacher.
And you’re a belly dancer.
Ah! I knew it!
“actual data?”
Where do you find that where it hasn`t been fuqed wth, manipulated or covered up to make it look like the PTB want it to?
Mike my Real Estate Professional….
Housing prices are still at 2004 levels. Furthermore, resale housing prices are >40% more than new construction.
Now I understand truth never fits in well with your real estate marketing narrative but the truth stands on its’ own.
Hows business these days “Mike”?
Biz is good. I am working as a teacher and collecting rent on my house every month, just like the past 17 years as a landlord
http://luna.moonstar.com/~acpjr/Blackboard/Common/Essays/RightArms.html - 8k -
Where’s Jesse and Al to protest all the murders in Chicago last year?
Too busy with the George Zimmerman shakedown, we suppose…
Goon…..all Jesse or Al has to do is search google for pictures and you realize none of them mynorities ever show up at gun shows….
we have to call out obewanna for race baiting.
how much bailout money will fannie and freddie get this year to cover bogus loans?
$40 bn / mo in Fed-funded QE3 MBS purchases = $480 bn / yr
“Honk if I’m paying your mortgage”
Catnip daydreams and caviar nights
Fat Cats Beaten By Regular Cat
yahoo
12 hours ago, Broken News Daily
An English housecat named Orlando beat a team of professional wealth managers, and a group of high school students in a year long stock picking contest. The contest had each group picking 5 companies to invest in each quater and by the end of the year the cat had the largest margin of profit.
If you have a way to beat the market consistently, why do you need my money? Why not just do it with your money and make a few 100M and then retire?
Yes, people do beat the market. And some have done it, albeit by a small margin, over long periods of time. But it’s like looking for Babe Ruth, very rare and you know the names of almost everyone who has done it.
Your neighborhood “financial adviser” who wants you to give him money to invest? Or small hedge funds.. They aren’t beating the market, because, if they were, they wouldn’t be “neighborhood” or “small”. Wall St. is the only place in the world that has 95% of their highly compensated employees (traders) who, at the end of the year, fail to beat DOING NOTHING. Yes, not only did they not generate ANY value at all for the company, they actually lost some.
Incredible.
“Incredible.”
Oh, but sooooooo profitable.
Remember, the rate is one a minute.
tick … tick … tick …
They need your money as reserves in order to borrow high amounts on margins and enact microprofit trades in microseconds and pay your OPM back at the end of the day.
“If you have a way to beat the market consistently, why do you need my money? Why not just do it with your money and make a few 100M and then retire?”
A: To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.
When hedgies know they will beat the market, they do *not* want other people invested. They do not invest their private money in the same things they use for their funds!
I briefly worked on a case years ago where 2 former GS partners had a small leveraged buy out fund. They bought up failing companies (stock, debt, assets) for pennies on the dollar, then hacked the companies apart and either the companies or loaded them up with new debt (so they themselves could cash out). Their rates of return were astronomical. They rarely had OPM involved (and when it was, it was other bankers).
Years later, one of the partners went back to work at a BB bank, I can’t remember in what position. He didn’t tell the other partner, who felt it was his fiduciary duty. There were probably some other stresses involved in the relationship, but basically they started fighting and eventually had to break up the partnership. I was only there for a summer so I’m not sure how the matter was resolved. The point is, when there is a killing to be made, you do not want other people to dillute your own stake. These guys had 10s of mil of their own money and thus did not really need anyone else. My thought is that when they did bring in other partners, it was because the other partners were instrumental to the deal itself. Passive investors will never get to participate in opportunities like this.
BB= bulge bracket.
There used to be more BB banks, but now it’s down to perhaps a handful. R.I.P. Lehman, Solomon, Bear Sterns, etc.
Apparently, the Fat Cats are doing just fine.
New York Times - Goldman Earnings Soar to $2.89 Billion:
“Goldman Sachs on Wednesday reported a fourth-quarter profit of $2.89 billion, or $5.60 a share, a significant jump from the period a year earlier.
The per-share figure is after the company paid preferred dividends, and comes in well ahead of analysts’ expectations of $3.78 a share, according to Thompson Reuters.”
Why can’t my cats be investment gurus? AFAIK all they do is sleep while I’m at work.
Man, I sure hope they raise the death sealing today.
Debt requires a collective amount of debt-junkies. Now understand that the debt-pimps are busy on the net, print and teevee advising the public to load up on debt. DO NOT heed their advice. If you do, you will regret it.
‘ understand that the debt-pimps are busy on the net, print and teevee advising the public to load up on debt’
But we have to, I mean, uh, ‘cuz it has electrolytes.
“Washington DC Rents Are Falling”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/01/11/dc-rents-are-falling-are-house-prices-next.html
Do you ever even read the links you post??? From the rents in DC link, because the article itself is just anecdotal
———————-
For example, Class A rents in the NoMa/H Street area fell 4.7 percent, after reporting 14.1 percent gains in the prior quarter. And in the upper NW sub-market, rents dropped about 1 percent after rising 13.7 percent in the third quarter of 2012. Rents did not fall everywhere, however. Capitol Riverfront (3.9%) and the sub-market that includes Penn Quarter, Logan Circle and Dupont Circle (2.5%) showed rent increases.
Here is a quick snapshot of average rents for Class A apartments in DC area sub-markets, as defined by Delta:
Central: (Penn Quarter, Logan Circle, Dupont Circle, etc.) $2,780 a month
Upper Northwest: $2,605 a month
Columbia Heights/Shaw: $2,514 a month
NoMa/H Street: $2,337 a month
Capitol Riverfront: $2,212 a month
Alexandria/Arlington: $1,840 a month
Rockville/North Bethesda: $1,942 a month
———————————
Even the anecdotal link is contrary: $1500 in 2007, miniumum of $1840 in 2012. Yeah, that’s really fallling.
It’s called a change in direction. Follow?
$1500 in 2007, miniumum of $1840 in 2012. Yeah, that’s really fallling.
Rents fell up. Home prices are falling up in a few places too.
Home-price index posts biggest gain in six years
Puget Sound Business Journal (blog)-Jan 14, 2013
The U.S. housing market continues to recover, with a national home-price index posting its largest increase since 2006. Research firm …
Home prices in Waco, nation continue to rise
Waco Tribune-Herald-3 hours ago
Waco’s housing market continues to flex its muscle, and the rest of the country is enjoying better news than it did during the peak of the housing …
Home Prices Rise by Most Since May 2006
Fox Business-Jan 15, 2013
Home Prices Continue Rising in November: CoreLogic
24/7 Wall St.-Jan 15, 2013
December home prices jump 19.6% in Southern California
Los Angeles Times-12 hours ago
While Southland housing is on the mend, the steep increase in the region’s median price last month probably reflects a variety of factors, such …
MLS report: LI home sales, prices rise in December
Newsday-Jan 14, 2013
Long Island’s housing market picked up steam last month, as transactions delayed by superstorm Sandy in November took place in December.
Juneau housing prices, demand on the rise
Kenai Peninsula Online-10 hours ago
The city’s population is up, home sales are up and home prices are at an all time high. However the supply of new home starts missed the …
House Prices Rise, Inventory Levels Shrink
CBS Local-Jan 14, 2013
FARMINGTON HILLS — The Detroit-area housing market continued its recovery in December, according to numbers released Monday by the …
Home prices continued their rise during November
ConsumerAffairs-by James Limbach-Jan 15, 2013
A Washington, D.C., reporter for more than 30 years, Jim Limbach covers the federal agencies for ConsumerAffairs. Previously, he was a …
Metro Phoenix housing prices continue to rise
Arizona Republic-Jan 11, 2013
Metro Phoenix’s housing prices continue to rise, but the supply of affordable homes for sale also needs to climb for the market to continue its …
Longmont-area home sales, prices on the rise
Longmont Daily Times-Call-Jan 13, 2013
Homebuyer Barbara McCormick checks out the tile inside a bathroom of a home Wednesday with Wright Kingdom Real Estate’s Dene Yarwood …
Analysts Predict US Home Price Increases
NuWire Investor-Jan 15, 2013
Home prices are likely to rise by 6% in 2013 on the back of higher demand, lower distressed sales and low inventory levels, Core Logic …
Housing market to improve in 2013,
AGBeat-Jan 14, 2013
Military helps home sales continue rise in Jefferson, Lewis counties
WatertownDailyTimes.com-Jan 14, 2013
A main contributor to the rising tide in annual home sales, Mr. Evans said, … The low foreclosure rate has helped keep housing prices stable …
Local home prices on rise
HeraldNet-Jan 10, 2013
Snohomish County home sellers benefitted from continued strong demand for housing and a shrinking supply of listings that drove up …
US home building drives up lumber prices
Financial Times-Jan 13, 2013
“The stock of vacant homes is disappearing, we’re seeing a rise in demand, home prices are rising and there is very little doubt that demand is …
As Phoenix-area home prices rise, more buyers find opportunities
Ahwatukee Foothills News-21 hours ago
More ordinary buyers are finally getting into the Phoenix-area housing market as home prices continue to rise and investors find fewer bargains …
Clear Capital: Portland home prices to rise
Portland Business Journal (blog)-Jan 8, 2013
That is the 14th fastest growth rate in the country according to a projection by Clear Capital, a Truckee, Calif.-based real estate research firm.
11% Of Homeowners Don’t Expect Home Prices To Rise In 2013
The Mortgage Reports-by Dan Green-Jan 10, 2013
According to Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey, a survey of more than 1,000 U.S. households, consumer attitudes toward housing are …
FNC index shows continuing rise in US home prices
Mississippi Business Journal (blog)-Jan 14, 2013
OXFORD — The latest FNC Residential Price Index (RPI) shows that the recovery of U.S. property values has continued through November …
I see you’re still lying to the public with your realtor narrative.
Carry on…. liar.
Carry on…. liar.
The scene: 40 years ago, after school in Pimp Watch’s house.
Pimp: Hi mommy I’m home! My bicycle got a flat tire.
Pimp’s Mom: How did that happen Pimpy?
Pimp: I ran over some glass in front of the record store.
Pimp’s Mom: Oh my. No go wash up for dinner.
Pimp: What’s for dinner mommy?
Pimp’s Mom: Liver and onions with turnips.
Pimp: (turning red) YOU’RE A LIAR!!!
Just post some more realtor links. Go on now.
Just post some more realtor links.
Good try. Home sales and prices are a matter of public record. Show me in any of those links where public record is being tampered with. You just don’t like the facts because facts are like liver and onions.
But I’m trying to find some housing numbers posted on the Mississippi River Barge Worker’s website.
I couldn’t find any at Victoria’s Secret’s.
And the truth is housing prices continue to drift lower right along with rents.
This is what happens when housing demand craters to decade lows…. and continues falling.
‘Home prices are falling up in a few places’
I’ve been asking; how is all this going on with record poverty, high unemployment, decades of declining or flat incomes? We all know most people don’t have much saved, have a lot of debt? What explains all this?
And if things are so great in these markets, we can stop subsidizing them, right? The central bank can stop buying mortgage backed securities and let interest rates go back up, right? I’ve probably read 2 dozen articles this morning about how strict lending standards are. Why are so many recent FHA buyers underwater or in foreclosure?
Here’s just one item; Fannie Mae stock. These guys have this exploding market cornered! Why isn’t that stock going to the moon? Sometimes you just have to question the basics:
‘New house sales have surged in major Chinese cities in recent weeks, as consumers expect prices to rise further in future, according to new industry figures. The number of newly-built housing units sold in 54 major Chinese cities soared 103 percent year on year in the first 13 days of 2013, reaching 104,800 units, figures from the Hong Kong-based real estate agency Centaline Group showed.’
‘Many cities, including Beijing, saw the average square footage of housing sold weekly rise to more than double the amount sold during the previous period last year, the academy said. Strong demand for new houses has driven prices higher and relieved some financial pressure for property developers, said Zhang Dawei, marketing director of Centaline Group.’
“People are more willing to buy houses when prices go up. It’s an old tradition in China,” Zhang said.’
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90778/8093534.html
I made this simple point on nationwide radio in 2005; when prices of anything go up, demand should decrease. If it doesn’t, something is wrong with the market. In this case, people are being motivated by something other than supply and demand, like speculative greed.
if things are so great in these markets, we can stop subsidizing them, right?
We should stop.
how is all this going on with record poverty, high unemployment, decades of declining or flat incomes?
A few reasons IMO.
Massive government meddling.
The lowest interest rates in most of our lives.
Ownership propaganda.
Lack of rentals in many areas?
‘We should stop.’
But then what happens?
‘Apr 26, 2012 (Reuters) - More than 1 million Americans who have taken out mortgages in the past two years now owe more on their loans than their homes are worth, and Federal Housing Administration loans that require only a tiny down payment are partly to blame.’
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/26/us-usa-housing-negative-idUSBRE83P12E20120426
I’m have zero interest in this ‘to buy or not to buy’ question. But what this all means for our economic futures does interest me. I still maintain that this is the most significant economic event in modern history. And that there will be a day when we don’t talk about houses like they’re stocks, when the fear of missing out, or the desire to make a fortune won’t apply to buying houses. It will just be another of life’s choices.
What explains all this ??
Can it be as simple as “how much a month” ?? I believe so…At least in the area’s that surround me because the job market optimism has returned…I am starting to see some small bungalow houses (1100 sq.ft) breach the $700. per foot range in area’s that less than 12 months ago were $600….Thats a big move…
And that there will be a day when we don’t talk about houses like they’re stocks, when the fear of missing out, or the desire to make a fortune won’t apply to buying houses. It will just be another of life’s choices.
Amen
I’ve been asking; how is all this going on with record poverty, high unemployment, decades of declining or flat incomes? We all know most people don’t have much saved, have a lot of debt? What explains all this?
And I have been answering, Ben. They use a larger % of their income on housing than they did in the past.
They take in roommates, many roommates. That’s the big one.
They live on Ramen and Lean Cuisine on sale.
They take in kids for day care.
They take on a second job, even if it’s daycare for a relative (who needs daycare becuase she got a second job).
They take in Grandma and her SS check.
They forgo Applebee’s and JC Penny in favor of Dunkin Donuts and Wal-mart.
They take in Section 8, EBT, food pantry, or other government/charity cheese.
They take in military allowance.
They use their credit cards.
They don’t contribute to retirement, or they raid the retirement they have.
They chase cheaper health insurance, or forgo it altogether.
They send kids to state school instead of a private university.
If you know you’re going to be on the sidewalk in 10 days, you learn very quickly that Rent is first.
when prices of anything go up, demand should decrease. If it doesn’t, something is wrong with the market.
That “wrong” you refer is actually “needs.” For needs, demand has a floor under it.
“I’ve been asking; how is all this going on with record poverty, high unemployment, decades of declining or flat incomes? We all know most people don’t have much saved, have a lot of debt? What explains all this?”
Most sellers are also buyers (selling one house to buy another), so as long as they could pay the old mortgage, they generally can pay the new mortgage.
What we are talking about is the marginal buyer of new SFR supply. For that, we are talking about what the top quintile (decile?) of earners who are currently renting. While unemployment sucks, and blue collar workers are getting crushed, there is still a population of renters who are making enough to buy (if they WANT–again, sentiment matters).
I’m really curious as to how long rents can keep rising before we start reading stories about apartment overcrowding…one way to pay more expensive rent is to find a roommate. One way to find a place to live if you make minimum wage is to be that roommate.
I’m really curious as to how long rents can keep rising before we start reading stories about apartment overcrowding…one way to pay more expensive rent is to find a roommate. One way to find a place to live if you make minimum wage is to be that roommate.
This has already happened in San Francisco. A room in a shared flat will run you 700-1200+ month. It seems like it can’t go higher, and then it does, defying all logic. $450 to share a STUDIO??
Today’s craigslist listing for shared rooms (unedited, I just chose the first batch):
ROOM WITH PRIVATE BATH/BATHROOM IN MODERN APARTMENT - $1695 (SAN FRANCISCO) map
Boutique Hotel Rooms from $1950/month in Nob Hill - $1950 (nob hill) pic map
Fully Furnished Hotel Room, Great for Students! - $1200 (downtown / civic / van ness) pic
Fully Furnished Room in Union Square, $200 off first month - $1200 (downtown / civic / van ness) pic
Prime North Beach Location, Fully Furnished Rooms PL - $1200 (north beach / telegraph hill) img
27th and Irving 1bd in 2bd/1bath (sunset / parkside) - $825 (sunset / parkside) pic
Huge Bedroom with great view in wonderful apartment - $1200 (ingleside / SFSU / CCSF) map
Room for rent (Sunnyvale) - $700 map
One nice furnished room - $675 (sunset / parkside)
LARGE 1 BEDROOM AVAILABLE IN 2B/2B CONDO - $1650 / 187ft² - (russian hill) pic
Commuter room - $750 / 170ft² - (inner richmond) map
Twin-bedded room with own bath & great view - $1095 (inner sunset / UCSF) pic map
Relocated to a new home? - Hope to get Roommates - $874 / 910ft² - (russian hill) img
Seeking a female roommate to share studio. - $450 (downtown / civic / van ness) pic
Walking distance to SFSU/CCSF/Stonestown Galleria shopping Mall - $995 (ingleside / SFSU / CCSF) pic map
Ocean View Room near SFSU/City College/ BART - $865 (ingleside / SFSU / CCSF) pic map
Rooms near SFSU/City College/Skyline/BART - $695 (ingleside / SFSU / CCSF) pic map
亁凈溫暖房间 One nice furnished room - $675 (sunset / parkside)
$1500 / 1br - 1 very large sunny room in 2 bedroom apt - $1500 / 1000ft² - (nob hill) pic map
Room For Rent in 3 Bedroom Flat - $853 (noe valley) pic map
Startup Mansion - Dec 1 - $1200 / 6800ft² - (twin peaks / diamond hts) pic
MasterRoom,Private Bath across from Colma Bart,Easy Access 2 Downtown - $825 (ingleside / SFSU / CCSF)
Awesome room + parking spot in 3bdr apt - $1420 (north beach / telegraph hill) pic map
Nice Room in Inner Sunset,Near UCSF/Transportation,All Male Housemates - $850 (inner sunset / UCSF)
“And I have been answering, Ben. They use a larger % of their income on housing than they did in the past.”
And you’ve been wrong on it too.
Do you ever *think* what this balderdash sounds like before you write it? Ever?
“I’m really curious as to how long rents can keep rising”
Wonder no longer as rental rates began falling in Q3…. even in NYC.
Exactly Oxide My father taught us the landlord always gets paid first
But now what if the bank doesn’t foreclose in the usual 90 days but takes 2-3-4 years….the new dynamics of housing.
If you know you’re going to be on the sidewalk in 10 days, you learn very quickly that Rent is first.
I made this simple point on nationwide radio in 2005; when prices of anything go up, demand should decrease. If it doesn’t, something is wrong with the market. In this case, people are being motivated by something other than supply and demand, like speculative greed
Ben, I think it depends on inflation expectations. If people think something is going to rise in the future, prices going up may just act as a trigger to buy before it goes up even more. That is particularly true since most people are poor market timers of anything. Usually you get the most individual investment in the stockmarket at the very top and the least at the very bottom.
So maybe you could say that “asset prices”, at least in the short and medium term actually act differently to what you see in pure consumptive items like steaks.
I guess you could call that speculative greed but I don’t know if you can ever truly define what is an investment and what is speculative greed.
” I don’t know if you can ever truly define what is an investment and what is speculative greed.”
A house certainly isn’t “an investment”. That was established long ago.
So, imagine a xylophone.
Now look at each bar as a sector in the economy. The width of each bar is the amount of currency flowing controlled by that sector.
Imagine fewer bars and more differences in the width.
It seems to me that one possibility is that a few Fed-favored (crony) sectors are flush with cash (the larger bars on the xylophone), driving up prices, while the rest of the economy remains starved of cash, yet still facing higher prices caused by the favored sectors.
Corporations with gargantuan cash hoards. The financial sector being flush with profit. I was wondering about the societal benefit of holding companies which contain many business units from which they siphon profit. Another example of wealth consolidation.
That’s one possibility. A few sectors controlling vast amounts of currency while the rest go hungry while still facing the effects of the increased currency-usage of the favored sectors.
“Can it be as simple as “how much a month” ??”
It was for me and my wife, though we did put 20% down. I’ve also heard on the news that people have been tightening their belts to pay down their credit card debt, resulting in higher credit ratings. Don’t know that it’s true, as three years doesn’t seem long enough to fix shattered credit. But perhaps there were many whose rating had gone from great to barely decent and they were able to fix it. (And qualify for a loan.)
I see little evidence of people doing the things oxide mentions to be able to afford their mortgage, but perhaps I am just not friends with those types of people. Personally, I only see three:
1) People living within their means who did not pay too much for a house.
2) People who paid too much for a house and are no longer making payments, or have already lost it.
3) People who rent.
‘“People are more willing to buy houses when prices go up. It’s an old tradition in China,” Zhang said.’
Chinese RealWhores say the same kind of crazy things their U.S. counterparts say.
Exactly how old is this ‘old tradition’? Wasn’t it just a few short years ago China was a communist country, with no private home ownership?
But then what happens?
‘Apr 26, 2012 (Reuters) - More than 1 million Americans who have taken out mortgages in the past two years now owe more on their loans than their homes are worth, and Federal Housing Administration loans that require only a tiny down payment are partly to blame.’
Then the greater fools who recently bought stop dancing — AGAIN!
“…when prices of anything go up, demand should decrease. If it doesn’t, something is wrong with the market. In this case, people are being motivated by something other than supply and demand, like speculative greed.”
Don’t forget the role of FHA-financed low-downpayment, low-interest, federally guaranteed lending, soon to be paid for by a taxpayer-funded bailout.
“… there is still a population of renters who are making enough to buy (if they WANT–again, sentiment matters).”
Wouldn’t it make great sense for them to wait until the market reverts to normalcy (e.g. higher interest rates, lower home prices…)?
“Ben, I think it depends on inflation expectations. If people think something is going to rise in the future, prices going up may just act as a trigger to buy before it goes up even more.”
That economists’ strawman theory works great unless most of the population is broke and the something whose price is going to supposedly rise is a big-ticket item that nobody can afford without going massively into debt.
In the case in question, the heightened inflation expectations only affect the rate of sales if crazy lending is available to those who otherwise would recognize the folly of taking such a massive financial risk.
Low-downpayment, low-interest rate, federally-guaranteed FHA loans will do…
“I made this simple point on nationwide radio in 2005; when prices of anything go up, demand should decrease. If it doesn’t, something is wrong with the market. In this case, people are being motivated by something other than supply and demand, like speculative greed”
Demand for some things decrease less than others with price increases. Basic food product, basic clothing, basic shelter? Demand decreases much less than for things like jewelry.
Conversely, implicit in your point is that if prices of anything go down, demand should increase. However, this has proven NOT to be the case with housing (a leveraged purchase). As prices crashed, people were scared away, demand DECREASED as people were afraid to lose their down payment (was this speculative fear?). Once prices begin to increase, I think we can all imagine people trying to jump into housing (the speculative greed you note).
if prices of anything go down, demand should increase
In my neighborhood, horse manure is free and they have a hard time giving it away.
Hey higher house prices translate into more jobs and higher pay and prosperity, right? Everything aside, we get more and more statistics from main street media about how things are getting better and better for the real estate sector. Don’t we have other things to worry about or does it all begin with house prices climbing to that pie-in-the-sky range?
“Hey higher house prices translate into more jobs and higher pay and prosperity, right?”
Nonsense.
Massively inflated housing prices has the opposite effect on the buyer.
Thanks, HBB rocks. I saw it too. The pimp depends on people not going to his links. He just wants us all to buy a $100K acre of land in the boonies so his developer outfit can slap up a $125K prefab on it.
Lots of holes in the narrative:
1. The data doesn’t say how many bedrooms those apartments are. (?)
2. Downtown is a different beast from the burbs. And I note they only report rent. They’ll just raise parking rates (~$100/mo) to make up the difference. They count on everyone forgetting to ask about parking.
3. 1% drop doesn’t mean much after rising 13% the year before.
4. Those rents in burb MD are still higher than PITI on buying. Admittedly it’s probably better to rent in burb VA.
5. AND, I still think that those listed rents are the move-in-special price. Nowadays, they charge slightly lower rent instead of offering a free month, to sucker you into thinking you’re chasing cheap rent. The data *I* want to see is the rental rates for Year 2. That’s when they kick you in the teeth.
You’re flailing at the truth…. and the truth is still there…. and it’s not going away.
The pimp ….just wants us all to buy a $100K acre of land in the boonies so his developer outfit can slap up a $125K prefab on it.
Is that his angle? Or is he just 5 cans short of a 6-pack?
I can only imagine the combine loses of you two debt-junkies. It’s a staggering amount.
All that being true, there is supposed to be some downward pressure on rent rates in the coming year. There are 28,000 new units that are expected to become available in the next year because of some weird compression of completion dates on new buildings. Average new demand for each year in the area is around 8,000 units.
There are 28,000 new units that are expected to become available in the next year ??
And how much more in the Pipe-Line ?? What about the “massive” amounts of money chasing yield with limited deals available…. Its a race to the finish line for these big developers….They will overbuild, like they always do and rents should come back some…
Polly — Thanks for injecting the grim dose of economic reality in the path of the HBB’s resident housing market bovine brigade’s path. They are so preoccupied with their visions of making a bundle on Fed-funded home price inflation that they are completely ignoring the massive supply of rental housing that is soon to come on line and crush both rents and home prices into the dirt.
A month after Newtown: Massive gun show
By Aaron Smith @CNNMoney January 15, 2013: 12:46 PM ET
The SHOT Show, which stands for Shooting, Hunting, Outdoor Trade, runs from Jan. 15 to Jan. 18 and is operated by the National Shooting Sports Foundation, a gun industry group that is based in Newtown.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/15/news/companies/gun-show-las-vegas/index.html - 49k -
How to create your very own “gun free” zone!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0vyxgJLJVA
‘Despite Bahrain’s bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protesters, the U.S. has continued to provide weapons and maintenance to the small Mideast nation. Defense Department documents released to ProPublica give the fullest picture yet of the arms sales: The list includes ammunition, combat vehicle parts, communications equipment, Blackhawk helicopters, and an unidentified missile system.’
‘There have been reports that Bahrain used American-made helicopters to fire on protesters in the most intense period of the crackdown. Time magazine reported in mid-March 2011 that Cobra helicopters had conducted “live ammunition air strikes” on protesters.’
http://www.propublica.org/article/americas-arms-sales-bahrain-crackdown
Edward Abbey
“The tank, the B-52, the fighter-bomber, the state-controlled police and military are the weapons of dictatorship. The rifle is the weapon of democracy. Not for nothing was the revolver called an “equalizer.” Egalite implies liberte. And always will. Let us hope our weapons are never needed–but do not forget what the common people of this nation knew when they demanded the Bill of Rights: An armed citizenry is the first defense, the best defense, and the final defense against tyranny.”
“If guns are outlawed, only the government will have guns. Only the police, the secret police, the military. The hired servants of our rules. Only the government–and a few outlaws. I intend to be among the outlaws.”
http://luna.moonstar.com/~acpjr/Blackboard/Common/Essays/RightArms.html - 8k -
What’s the over/under before Aslop appears from the ‘Ministry of Truth’ ?
The rifle is the weapon of democracy.
—————————————-
If Im not mistaken, the English long bow had a similar effect in that it made it possible for a serf to afford a weapon that could take out a mounted knight in armor?
Great rhetoric, but the only time in my life I’ve seen real change come about was when millions of people were marching in the streets and the cities were burning.
And they weren’t even armed.
See: history of the 1960s.
You are correct spook. The hoplite phalanx was also a ‘weapon’ of democracy.
Wow spook I attempted to post something very similar to this without even reading your post. I guess great minds think alike.
Eco, the cities were burning and shots were being fired. Having experienced a race riot in Boston when I was about eight, I know that that guns played a major role in the PTB deciding to make changes to laws. Finally, I think they made sure they did not have to make even more changes by passing strict gun control measures.
“If Im not mistaken, the English long bow had a similar effect in that it made it possible for a serf to afford a weapon that could take out a mounted knight in armor?”
In medieval England a peasant caught with a sword in his possession would be strung up on a gibbet and left there for the crows. Swords were for gentlemen only. (Gentlemen!) Only members of the ruling class were entitled to own and bear weapons. For obvious reasons. Even bows and arrows were outlawed–see Robin Hood. When the peasants attempted to rebel, as they did in England and Germany and other European countries from time to time, they had to fight with sickles, bog hoes, clubs–no match for the sword-wielding armored cavalry of the nobility.
http://luna.moonstar.com/~acpjr/Blackboard/Common/Essays/RightArms.html - 8k -
This is new to me. Thoughts?
The Second Amendment was Ratified to Preserve Slavery
The real reason the Second Amendment was ratified, and why it says “State” instead of “Country” (the Framers knew the difference - see the 10th Amendment), was to preserve the slave patrol militias in the southern states, which was necessary to get Virginia’s vote. Founders Patrick Henry, George Mason, and James Madison were totally clear on that . . . and we all should be too.
In the beginning, there were the militias. In the South, they were also called the “slave patrols,” and they were regulated by the states.
In Georgia, for example, a generation before the American Revolution, laws were passed in 1755 and 1757 that required all plantation owners or their male white employees to be members of the Georgia Militia, and for those armed militia members to make monthly inspections of the quarters of all slaves in the state. The law defined which counties had which armed militias and even required armed militia members to keep a keen eye out for slaves who may be planning uprisings.
The VAST majority were not armed.
Exceptions are NOT the rule.
Comment by sfhomowner
2013-01-16 11:46:12
This is new to me. Thoughts?
The Second Amendment was Ratified to Preserve Slavery
The real reason the Second Amendment was ratified, and why it says “State” instead of “Country” (the Framers knew the difference - see the 10th Amendment), was to preserve the slave patrol militias in the southern states, which was necessary to get Virginia’s vote. Founders Patrick Henry, George Mason, and James Madison were totally clear on that . . . and we all should be too.
——————————————-
So all non slave owners wanted to give up their guns?
Or didn’t care about protecting their right to bear arms?
What is your real point?
What is your real point?
My point is that this has been circulating around and I had never heard of this before.
Many, if not all, of the arguments used by the NRA are based on interpreting the 2nd amendment. How and why the 2nd amendment came to be written into the constitution is part of the discussion, regardless of which side you personally take.
And why do you care about why they thought it was so important unless you’re looking for excuses to repeal it?
Even bows and arrows were outlawed–see Robin Hood. When the peasants attempted to rebel, as they did in England and Germany and other European countries from time to time, they had to fight with sickles, bog hoes, clubs–no match for the sword-wielding armored cavalry of the nobility.
Bzzt! Wrong! Wikipedia:
“It was the difficulty in using the longbow which led various monarchs of England to issue instructions encouraging their ownership and practice, including the Assize of Arms of 1252 and King Edward III’s declaration of 1363: “Whereas the people of our realm, rich and poor alike, were accustomed formerly in their games to practise archery – whence by God’s help, it is well known that high honour and profit came to our realm, and no small advantage to ourselves in our warlike enterprises… that every man in the same country, if he be able-bodied, shall, upon holidays, make use, in his games, of bows and arrows… and so learn and practise archery.” If the people practised archery, it would be that much easier for the King to recruit the proficient longbowmen he needed for his wars. Along with the greater ability of gunfire to penetrate plate armour, it was the long training needed by longbowmen which eventually led to their being replaced by musketmen.
What is your real point?
What is yours? Reflexively defending slave-owners, ’spook’?
I saw a good idea on television tonight and I thought I would try to cash in…
I will be making some 12×24 inch yard and door signs proclaiming “GUN FREE HOME”. I figure there will be many takers, I mean what committed statist would not want to announce their solidarity with the struggle.
$9.99 if you buy one
$15.99 if you buy two
$25.99 for a four pack
I put the ordering instructions on tomorrows Bits Bucket
Sorry…No C.O.D’s
The Sunni/Shiite split grows wider and more violent every day, a blowing up of Saudi pipelines cannot be ruled out nor can a Saudi/Iran war. We have unleashed dark forces in the Middle East with naive policies. I know you do not agree with me but I think this is going to be an interesting year, in the sense that it is used in a Chinese curse.
RE: Interesting year,
Doomsday Clock Signifies Humanity’s Imminent Demise:
http://www.scienceworldreport.com/articles/4423/20130115/doomsday-clock-signifies-humanity-s-imminent-demise.htm
The Doomsday Clock does not always move forward. In 2010, scientists moved back the hand of the clock after Obama’s election to signify a leadership that would help slow climate change and set a path toward a world without nuclear weapons.
Gee, those were the days… when Obama united the world in a new vision of socialist utopia. Well it could be worse, after the first hydrogen bomb was tested the clock was at 2 minutes till doom(midnight).
“We have unleashed dark forces in the Middle East with naive policies.”
As opposed to the peace and stability they enjoyed for the last few thousand years?
A better way of saying it. The stalemate has been broken.
– “We have unleashed dark forces in the Middle East with naive policies.”
– As opposed to the peace and stability they enjoyed for the last few thousand years?
– The stalemate has been broken.
When the cat goes away, the mice will kill each other.
Yes Ryan. France is in Mali because it intervened in Libya and the fighters from Libya, including ironically paid fighters of Khadaffi, migrated from that conflict with more weapons to Mali and have set up a terrorist network. France may not have had to send ground troops to Libya but now it does to Mali. I think they may be having second thoughts about Libya. Just wait if Algeria gets destablized and Europe want to keep its natural gas. Of course, I bet that will result in U.S. troops being sent there and we will regret we helped bring Khadaffi down. Of course, with what is happening in Egypt and Syria, I hope some people are already wishing we stayed out of Libya. If not we have people as dumb as rocks running things.
“When the cat goes away, the mice will kill each other.”
Mice are vicious. In overcrowded conditions, they will eat their own young.
Mice are vicious.
Very much like that part of the world has been, for centuries.
We did a great job in Mali as well. No surprise that the current leaders of the rebels were American trained and given American weapons. They were high up in the military hierarchy and supposed to be supporting the powers that be, but they defected to the rebel side. Apparently no one saw it coming…
Ben,
Thanks for keeping this hypocrisy in everyone’s eye. It’s very hard to take seriously any of the “regulate the guns” rhetoric coming out of Washington while our government is providing heavy arms, selling an astonishing 78% of the world’s weaponry, and actively blowing up other people’s countries. It’s just staggering.
Let’s legalize murder for the ordinary citizen. Just have everybody do a federal background check like they do for guns and military enlistees.
If you pass you can get a license to murder people. It’s almost unconstitutional that only the cops have the legal authority to kill people! The good moral americans will clean up this mess pronto.
Be all you can be.
Or as I used to say in late 1988 while waiting for my indentured servitude to pass: “Think of all you could have been”.
“I’m High”
oops, I mean, “Aim High”
A force for Good…
We had spoofs of the military enlistment campaigns during the Vietnam “conflict”.
one typically went something like,
“Seeking adventure? Want to have an exciting and rewarding career? Need a start in a lifelong career experience?
We can provide that. We will send you to foreign lands where you will meet different people of different ethnic and racial minority groups. They will have different religions, different cultures and a multitude of languages.
Meet them, and Kill them, for the US ARMY.
That’s our promise to you.
I remember seeing a very old SNL recruiting commercial parody where they showed a lower enlisted Navy man doing various crappy tasks and then said “It’s not just a job, it’s $98 a week” or something like that.
“Get an ugly wife and a ****ed-up life in the A…a…ar-my.”
An Army of one.
And that’s almost literal.
One of my favorite oxymorons!
My favorite: Military intelligence.
“So who here wants to pay rent when they’re 75?”
Apparently a thought from the universe where math does not work.
My mom was an accidental owner and sold. She rents and is free from care about constantly fixing things on a depreciating house. The proceeds are in the bank and are sufficient to pay her rent until she is 130 or so.
Consider the source. The person that made that statement has her entire financial future founded on urban myth.
The proceeds are in the bank and are sufficient to pay her rent until she is 130 or so.
Wow! She must have made a lot of money off that house!
Wait a minute… I thought they always depreciated?
They do depreciate. Like all manmade items. ALWAYS.
Then how do the proceeds from the sale of her house pay for her rent until she’s 130?
Especially in this low interest rate environment?
(And didn’t we decide that those fancy old eye-talian fiddles appreciated?)
Keep up with your schooling now.
She’s using the principal to pay the rent, not earnings on the money. Otherwise, it would be indefinite paying of rent, without an end date.
50 years x $12,000 = $600,000
^^^
lol…
You can’t even be honest about rental costs 50 years ago. Salvage yourself…. quickly.
You can’t even be honest about rental costs 50 years ago.
Her rental costs start now, since she’s sold her house. And we’re told she’s good for 50 years of rent.
Are you talking about the imputed rent of the decades the family lived in the house?
“Like all manmade items.”
Does Southby’s know this? Quick! Let them know before they lose another million!
And while you’re at let, there are many large museums that are obviously losing money on their inventory as well!
ALL manmade items.
Ye…ah.
oh//??
I guess I better get rid of that 18th Century King Louis furniture set my grandma left me.
I thought it my be worth something if I held on to it. Guess not.
There’s also a Gull-wing Mercedes in the garage.
It was made back in 1958, so it’s probably not worth the space it’s taking up. Maybe I’ll just call one of those “cash for junk cars” folks and see if I can unload it.
I’ve only kept it cause it still runs good, but it can’t be worth much as a trade-in.
They do always depreciate. Perhaps you aren’t thinking depreciation means decrepidation. Until my father passed away, it was his job to fight the depreciation. Then it became mine. Doing maintenance form a distance rather punctuates the significance of things that need to be maintained. What a relief.
She didn’t “make money on that house”.
She didn’t “make money on that house”.
Yes, she made money on that house, in very real senses.
1. Your father’s job to fight the depreciation does not negate the money she made at selling just because it was work for your father. People make money by working at things. We don’t then say “you’re not really making that money because you are having to work for it”.
2. The money spent up-keeping the house does not negate the money she made at selling because to make money with money, it takes money.
3. If she lived in a paid off house she was making money on her house by saving rent in the “penny saved is a penny earned” way.
4. She also made money on that house in a forced savings way. Now she has those liberated forced savings. Savings are earned. She made that money. If you make the argument that it was just keeping up with inflation, you are overlooking the fact that she was living there at the same time, so the “free-rent” saved was in addition to her money force-saved.
1. Dumping $400k into a house over 30 years and selling for $150k is a loss.
2. Spending money on repairs is an expense…. and a loss.
3. Rental rates are a fraction of the cost of renting, thus do not come remotely close to offset the loss associated with holding a depreciating asset for 30 years.
4. Again. Dumping $400k into a house over 30 years and selling for $150k is a loss.
Dumping $400k into a house over 30 years and selling for $150k is
a lossan outlying example of an extreme distortion of the historical and mathematical reality.Median home price 30 years ago was about 68K. Today it’s about 180K.
A person buying 30 years ago with 20% down and an average 25 year mortgage has in no way put 400K into that home. It looks like the forced savings is almost a wash with about 20 years of “free rent” thrown in.
Your logic is hogwash.
I know math is challenging for you but do try to be honest with it.
Rio,
Would you argue that at an 8% interest rate you pay the bank over 3x the purchase price of the house, or about 200% of the price in interest?
Would you argue that at an 8% interest rate you pay the bank over 3x the purchase price of the house, or about 200% of the price in interest?
It can be but over the past 30 years and for most, it has not been. 30% of homes are owned outright. Therefore, I’d estimate total equity in all homes averaged about 50% the past 30 years.
20 and 30 years ago the down payment was much higher than now. Many people took out 15 year loans and many paid their 30 year mortgage early.
And for the past 15 years, interest rates have been well below 8%.
So I stand by my averages observations regarding the past 30 years of housing prices paid figures.
ANSWER the question.
“in a forced savings way…”
Spoken like a true debt slave. Paying interest and fixing crap is saving.
“The proceeds are in the bank and are sufficient to pay her rent until she is 130 or so.”
There ya go. It’s not rocket science, folks. To take it a step further, renting gives you the option to downsize to a cheaper rent if you are finding it hard to pay your monthly. Underwater mortgages are forever until you short sell.
But owning the house is what created the proceeds that she can now rent with.
“create proceeds”…. lmao
“Owning” the house was merely a container for forced savings. The container has large holes in it that can never be plugged.
Carry on with your lies my Real Estate Professional.
“Owning” the house was merely a container for forced savings.
But if you look at home selling proceeds as only “forced savings” then you have to look at 30 years of home ownership as free rent. Because savings implies money not used but that money was used for shelter.
So that “forced savings” was also providing shelter.
So that “forced savings” was also providing shelter.
Of course it was. At 3x the cost of renting the same square footage.
So that “forced savings” was also providing shelter.
Of course it was. At 3x the cost of renting the same square footage.
You are wrong again by a factor of about 2.8. Nationally and historically, buying has always been about 10-30% more than renting. That is not 3X.
Your numbers are biased, self-serving (but not well) hogwash.
And you’re lying once again. Not that we expect anything more from a debt-pimp like you.
But of course you conveniently left out 30 years of taxes, maintenance and insurance.
you conveniently left out 30 years of taxes, maintenance and insurance.
Wrong. They were not left out:
“Nationally and historically, buying has always been about 10-30% more than renting. That is not 3X.”
I’ll show you again with math.
Today, buying a 180K median priced home with 20% down has a PITI of about $960 a month. Add in 2% a year maintenance for a total monthly housing cost of $1,260.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the average apartment rent is $1,048 a month in America.
So right there we can see that owning a median priced house can cost only about 20% more a month than the cost of an average apartment.
I left out nothing. Your math and logic are hogwash.
And you dishonestly left out taxes…. and insurance and… oh yeah…. you never adjusted for square footage.
You see my dear debt-pimp…. you struggle with integrity and honesty. It’s not math afterall.
You keep leaving out the REAL costs of buying….. why is that? Why misrepresent it?
The mania lives. The house was a money pit, not a money tree. The money she has now is only what’s left over from owning the house. The expenses ae real, profiting by simply owning is magical thinking. Only works during a mania ponzi.
“The house was a money pit, not a money tree.”
+1 Gotta remember that line!
You guys must have really sunk a lot into that money pit, for it to be a loss, yet still proved a half century of rent. Are you adding in the decades of imputed rent?
proved = provide..
Add together the imputed rent and the half-century of future rent.
You underestimate the seniority of my Maternal Unit. She’s making an imputed fortune now, since she lives in a modest 1/1 flat and should otherwise be paying for a grand 3/2 with garage and garden. She likely would not get the concept.
Your point is that a building becomes more valuable as it sits and crumbles. I won’t argue with that. It’s mania.
Shelter costs money.
Why does this always seem to get lost in the discussion?
There is a big difference between buying a house as an investment (regardless of whether you live in it) and buying a house because you need a place to live.
For some of us, where and how we live is not solely based on financials. Actually, that’s probably true for everyone, except the very poor. Even when renting, everyone makes decisions about how much more they would pay for a larger place, parking, a view, and neighborhood.
As a renter, sure, I could rent from a slumlord and live in the Tenderloin and rent (relative for SF) cheaply in a dark, moldy, studio apartment. But even renters make choices that cost more than they HAVE to pay.
It’s a sad life that boils down all interactions to money.
Your point is that a building becomes more valuable as it sits and crumbles. I won’t argue with that. It’s mania.
My point is that the value of her house was the imputed rent of the decades she lived there + the proceeds of the sale (which you say will pay her rent for the next ~half-century), minus PITI, maintenance, opportunity cost, and sales cost.
I still can’t see how the latter part of the equation can be larger than the former part. Fifty-ish years of rent will take at least $300,000 to $500,000 to cover, so she made bank on the sale. She and her family lived there for decades, so there’s a lot of imputed rent. Houses didn’t cost jack thirty or more years ago. How much maintenance could there really be?
I bet there was a good bit of appreciation there. After all, it was ‘the biggest credit bubble ever’ or some such.
“Shelter costs money.”
Of course it does. It’s an expense every day of your life until you’re in your grave. It’s NEVER profitable. Shelter is a loss. Especially at the current inflated asking prices of resale housing.
It’s a sad life that boils down all interactions to money.
Ebenezer Scrooge learned his lesson. Of course he was a fictional character. Wonder if there is any hope for our own Argument Clinic flunkee.
There’s my drama queen!
Many people know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
Shelter costs money. Why does this always seem to get lost in the discussion?
Because when it’s NOT lost, they lose. Loosers!
Did you factor in taxes, maintenance, opportunity costs (time)?
In reality, many (most) people would be better off renting & pocketing the difference. People just can’t see that because they’d spend every dollar they make (and more).
It only seems like a house “creates money” if you don’t dig into it.
Deterioration, maintenance, taxes.. the point is this: After all was said and done, that money pit gave her $300-$500K* in profit. Would renting have given her that profit?
———-
*depending on what you mean by “rent until she’s 130.”
Clearly you’ve never developed or read a P&L spreadsheet.
Dumping $500k into a house over 30 years and selling it for $150k isn’t “profit”. It’s LOSS.
How much of the value of a house is based on the quality of the neighbors?
What is the value of not having the potted plants on your porch stolen?
A country garden is usually robbed by quite respectable critters.
Pimp,
I don’t think they get your point because you aren’t making the real point. Buying OR renting = LOSS. Buying now = greater loss than renting. Buying at other times might equal smaller loss than renting.
But in any case, can you stop cluttering up threads with repetitive lie 1 liners?
“After all was said and done, that money pit gave her $300-$500K* in profit”
No. It gave her $X of after sale proceeds. You can’t calculate profits unless you know what the costs were. Now, accidental owner imlies that she may not have paid for it, but that doesn’t change the fact that the proceeds after a sale aren’t the same as profit on sale.
mathguy - Yes, shelter is an expense, not an investment. At least w/r/t primary residencies (rental properties up for discussion).
polly - We get that their *can* be profits after a sale. However, if you keep track of all costs associated, including transaction costs, and assign some value to opportunity costs, the average person really isn’t going to reap much of a profit. To do so, they’d have to downsize or else “time the market” right. Even in these situations, we’re really talking about a form of [tax-advantaged] forced savings. As a nation, we’d be better off to start considering shelter as an expense. There are different ways to handle that expense, to be sure. But the nation that owning = investment whereas rent = expense is wrongheaded. They’re both ways of meeting a need via an expense.
Joe,
Why was that directed at me? I rent. In a very lovely neighborhood. Not too bad a commute. I am perfectly aware that it is an expense. And there is nothing in your statement that contradicts anything I have ever said on this blog.
I don’t understand how people defend the argument that rising home prices = “retirement savings”. Counting on housing price appreciation for retirement = poor planning. I can sort of understand how people fell into this thinking in the 90s and 00s. But to hear it repeated without any critique in 2012/13… laughable.
The mania thinking hasn’t died out yet. We haven’t collectively yet even left the denial stage of the housing bubble stages of grief.
Counting on housing price appreciation for retirement = poor planning.
How about counting on a paid-off house as a stable, inflatio-proof place to live in your old age?
If you’ve paid too much, it’s poor planning.
I’ve lived in my paid-off house for over 20 years. It is neither stable nor inflation proof. Taxes rise inexorably despite my voting against them. Repair costs & spare parts rise inexorably. My income and resources are not rising inexorably as Ben Bernanke continues his dirty work.
I’ve lived in my paid-off house for over 20 years. It is neither stable nor inflation proof.
But something about owning, even with the added costs, is of value to you. If it wasn’t, you would sell and rent.
I am guessing (let me know if I am wrong) that there are factors above and beyond the financials that contribute to your decision to remain a homeowner.
It’s a loss. You made a tragic financial error. Do what you have to do to limit your losses as much as possible.
I am guessing (let me know if I am wrong) that there are factors above and beyond the financials
My financial status has long been integrated into my way of life. Starting in grade school I worked on building our SFH under my father’s tutelage. I got to like many aspects of home maintenance & repair, and have made a (very profitable, in a way) hobby of it. I also do most of my own car repairs. When I picked out this house I used my knowledge of home construction to pick something I could easily do most of the work or improvements on.
Some examples:
— It takes me 5 minutes to swap out a dead sump pump, because I installed it so as to make it that way.
— A few hours or less to swap out a dead dishwasher, also because I installed it that way
— Next project is installing an emergency generator capability at home. At the last meeting of my ham radio club, I got one of the electrical workers in the club to volunteer to help me install a transfer switch, which could conceivably save me $500 in labor costs.
— Current project is replacing a corroded radiator support in my 2001 F150. A new hackerspace just opened a few miles away, and there I received some essential help in fixing this. I hope to save $1000 in labor costs. I am working out in my back yard in winter weather, but then I do need the exercise and rather enjoy it.
— When the back yard is free of my truck it will go back to its usual status of ‘garden’.
My basic strategy is making a virtue of necessity.
“Do what you have to do to limit your losses as much as possible.”
Inquisitive…are you doing a hottie, or saving $$$ with fugly?
Pimp? Pimping? Speak up. Don’t be shy.
“Speak up. Don’t be shy.”
Pimp Watch, the point is that unless you are a non-corporeal life form (star trek) you will endure expenses along your way through life’s journey. Are you saving money dating an over-weight, big gulp toting and cigarette smoking slob, or spending extra for an educated athletic hottie that naturally comes with higher overhead? This isn’t an audition. And you can save even more by living in a lousy neighborhood, but those savings can be quickly dashed with a violent assault or complete theft of your personal property. But if you are able tap some trim and look at the ocean from your living room window all for $650/month I’m all ears.
I’m in a decent affordable neighborhood out in flyover land, but it meant a 1,000-mile move from family and friends in order to not be swamped in the California RE bubble. Being former military the move was doable, but I know for a fact that moving long distance isn’t an option for the majority, so cut ‘em some slack, and consider switching to decaffeinated.
FWIW, I paid 2.5x my income for a nearly new 1500-sqft spec house ten years ago at the bottom of the dot-com bubble, and it’s paid for now. The odds that I’ll lose a bundle are slim, but everyone is going to lose something as this depression drags-on for ten or twelve more years. It’s baked in.
You’re contradicting yourself:
First you admonish and state “you will endure expenses” and then you state “The odds that I’ll lose a bundle are slim”.
It likely an oversight on your part but the broader point where you invoke the word “expenses” is quite correct. Shelter is always an expense, every day of your life. But the fact remains that the shelter expense is never a profit….. it’s always a loss. You’ll lose just like anyone else whose name is on a deed irrespective of what they paid.
“you will endure expenses”
FWIW, I’ve endured over $15k last year in health insurance, co-pays, etc., and that’s not counting the dentist.
+1 sfhomowner….RAL doesn’t get it…Everything is a math equation for him….Bad math at that…
My math wins countless ten million dollar projects. Your math results in slavery.
Why buy for $10 million, when you can buy later for 65% less?
Why? Because bid packages have a deadline.
Because bid packages have a deadline.
So does life.
Alpo…. How was your day of pimping used houses?
I call BS.
In order for her to acquire ~50 years worth of rent in “proceeds,” that means she had to “own”* a house — outright — that she could sell for ~300-500 large.
So tell me — and I want a real answer to this — when will a lifelong renter ever own something that will sell for those kinds of proceeds? Saving the difference between renting and buying is not enough.
—————
*Awfully convenient how you gloss over the “accidental owner.” How did that happen? Did she inherit a house? Maybe Obama done gon’ bought her a house? Great retirement plan!
“Saving the difference between renting and buying is not enough.”
You better believe it is and you’re going to find out the hard way.
It depends…
If you think that is a hard and fast rule, you too will be finding out the hard way.
This savings between renting and buying at current inflated prices is massive. Yeah…. it’s “hard and fast rule”. Until prices fall to their pre-bubble levels. And it’s a long way down from here.
when will a lifelong renter ever own something that will sell for (300-500 large)? Saving the difference between renting and buying is not enough.
No. It can be done by a very few. Work, luck, timing and frugality. I did it in about 20 years in Cali. It’s how I bought my house for cash in Rio. But it has to be in areas where renting is way cheaper than buying. That is not the case in much of America now.
If I had bought a coastal Cali house in 97 and sold in 2006 I would have made even more than by renting and investment but how many people actually buy at the bottom and sell at the top?
“But it has to be in areas where renting is way cheaper than buying.”
Not necessarily. You can acquire that much in cash by living way below your means for a long enough period of time. Of course, that requires you make enough for living way below your means to be possible. Most people will never earn enough to even try it.
You can acquire that much in cash by living way below your means for a long enough period of time. Of course, that requires you make enough for living way below your means to be possible. Most people will never earn enough to even try it.
Sometimes I think, “yeah, I should do this” (live way below my means so I can amass a lot of cash).
And then I think, “but I could die next week, and I would have spent my last days scrimping and being miserly”.
So, for me, the answer lies somewhere in between. I live somewhat frugally, but not so much that money decides everything.
This month I spent $350 on a new wetsuit. Worth every penny, as surfing (and being warm) brings great joy.
I also bought a new Roomba. $299. Extravagant? Maybe. But I do so love a robot that cleans for me. It makes me very happy as it whirls around the house picking up dust and dog hair.
I could save a whole lot more money if I chose to work full time. My boss would love it if I did. But right now the sun is streaming in the window, the house is quiet, the dogs are napping, and I wouldn’t trade the piece of mind I get from having a little time to putter and build and garden and surf for working every spare hour so I can have more money in the bank.
To each her own.
Rising food prices are a far bigger problem than any other our nation faces today. Disagree at your own risk. Every ‘crisis’ response by the government (with the helping hand of the FED) has exacerbated the problem from QE to handing out monoply money in a widespread manner to compete with hard-earned dollars for the same goods. Our government is making the problem worse in their bungling effort to correct other “problems”, driven purely by political power focused greed related priorities. This quite well will eventually be the straw that breaks the camel’s back:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-prices-may-catalyst-2013-090057106.html
There was mixed news in the inflation report today for housing prices. Imputed rents did rise again on a national basis, by .1% for the month, however that is much less than the .3% rate from a few months ago. It appears to me that the investors are now putting sufficient units on the market to depress rent increases which should depress future housing appreciation. However, until it turns negative it is hard for me to see why houses should actually depreciation since houses are still underpriced using the rent/housing price metric.
Who is paying less for health insurance in 2013 than in 2012?
Don’t all raise your hands at once.
Anyone?
Bueller?
Bueller..?
My insurance raised my deductible to $7,000 this year. No corresponding drop in premiums, though.
And it still wont cover my RX’s unless they are already cheap.
One medication which I had been been holding my nose and paying $300 per month just went up to $670/month.
Not taking that one anymore….
Not taking that one anymore….
If you knew you could live without it, why were you taking it? Or have you replaced it with a similar, but less expensive, version?
“If you knew you could live without it, why were you taking it?”
There are folks who take half of their medication. E.g. blood pressure medication. Their blood pressure may not be as well controlled and they may be cutting years off their life, but the alternative might be living on the street or cutting another medication or something else which would shorten their lives more.
$670 is a lot of money for a medication. I would guess that it is a fairly new, non-generic one and that the extra $370 is a non-starter.
Your close enough to Canada to fill tour scripts there…
Did not know as it helped me off the couch six years ago. Trying to go without is what I am doing now. Whether I am sucessful going without remains to be seen
Thanks Mike. Best to you in shaking free of the stuff.
My health insurance went up, but only around $40 per month. And my deductible stayed the same.
But one of my providers no longer wants to deal with my insurance company. The negotiated rate for their services has dropped to the point that it is not profitable for them.
But one of my providers no longer wants to deal with my insurance company.
That’s why the USA needs a public option. The doctors in Brazil are 90% as good as Americans but just charge 30% as much.
Why? Because if Brazilians can’t afford OR tolerate private healthcare, they can go to public health-care.
Competition baby….
“Who is paying less…?”
Um, the folks who finally qualified for Medicare?
But “help” is on the way, if there is one think the Fed can do is create inflation, that is why three years ago, I decided while the Fed could not raise real housing prices people should not doubt there ability to first stem and then raise nominal prices. From Bloomberg today:
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said yesterday policy makers may enlarge their $85 billion monthly purchases of debt to meet their twin goals of stable prices and full employment. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner warned the government’s borrowing limit may be breached as early as next month if the ceiling isn’t raised. The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for this year yesterday.
“since houses are still underpriced”
WRONG.
You’re not going to slide your bullshit under the door either.
As measured by the imputed rent metric Pimp. Cost of ownership vs. rent.
Dan, I am convinced that you speak for the majority. The majority believe that house prices are going up, that inflation is pawing at the door, that we have a recovery and that their policies are effective. The majority believe that the nastly little correction of 2008 set us back on a path of growth and expansion. The majority could well be surprised by how much correction still will happen.
Blue skye, as my earlier posts below I do not think we are about to enter into prosperity and I certainly do not think anything has been fixed over the last four years. However, I do think that so much money has been created by the Fed Reserve that we are going to be robbed by inflation not by nominal depreciation of housing. I think measured in gold, houses will drop. However, most people do not have mortgages in gold they have them in dollars. Thus, those with fix mortgage rates just may benefit from the coming carnage.
To explain by example: say you have a house with a 200,000 mortgage and the house is worth 200,000 dollars the interest rate is fixed. We then have a surge in inflation and within a few years the prices of most items have doubled. Your pay has not kept up with inflation but it has risen, it went from $100,000 to $180,000. Your house has gone from 200,000 to $360,000 tracking your wage increase but not inflation. So where does that leave you? Ignoring any paying of principle during this period, you started off with a mortgage twice your income. But now you how an income that is around ten percent less than your mortgage, you are much better off. Additionally, you now have $160,000 in nominal equity even if it is worth only half as much as a few years earlier.
Now, if you just own the house outright, you have obviously lost. The house in real terms went from $200,000 to $180,000.
Your pay has not kept up with inflation but it has risen
This statement perfectly demonstrates that you don’t understand what inflation is.
Please explain Pimp how wages must always keep up with inflation since I think most working people have seen wages not keeping up with inflation for almost 40 years.
Please explain why you’re misrepresenting the word inflation.
Inflation? All I see are bad debts being papered over, and that not as fast as the rot is progressing. There is not more money in circulation. Debt is contracting everywhere.
I think this is what must happen when the largest expansion of credit in history ends. If that is not what is happening, then the credit expansion is not over yet and we have even more pain postponed.
I think the debate on whether house prices are going up or down is silly. Look at the Case Shiller data. There is seasonal fluctuation for the past few years and that is all. There hasn’t been any breakout from a narrow range. All this while massive Fed efforts to stop the slide continue. Is the Fed at the end of its rope? When the rope runs out house prices are not poised to go up. We’ve only seen the first phase of the correction.
Year on year, Case Shiller shows an increase. Whether people think it is statistically significant is a different question. Their data lags and is an average of a few months, which takes out jumping to conclusions or big variations.
My main point is that the increases are more than seasonal variations.
When median prices went negative in Q3, you invoked “seasonality”. Now it’s more than seasonality.
Make up your mind.
Then, I said that you need to look at year on year, not quarter to quarter. I also said that median was especially misleading quarter to quarter, especially because of seasonal changes in mix.
Same story now. The post above said that Case Shiller showed nothing but seasonal variations. This is not the case if you look year-on-year.
I’ve been consistent.
You on the other hand were touting median prices when speaking of Santa Clara County, and then noted how misleading median was in a later post.
Let me reiterate, if this is unclear to you:
The best measure of home values are apples-to-apples sales comparisons, like the Case Shiller index uses. To take out seasonality, you should look at year on year changes, not month to month, or quarter to quarter.
“I’ve been consistent.”
You’ve been consistent at misrepresenting the housing market. This we agree on.
Now, if you just own the house outright, you have obviously lost. The house in real terms went from $200,000 to $180,000.
How are you losing over a 5-10 year period of time? 20K is probably only 18 months rent on that house.
The house in real terms went from $200,000 to $180,000.
So what? HBB has already concluded that over a lifetime $20K is chump change, two bucks a day.
Rio, I did not identify the time period and I was only talking about the value of the house. Determining whether you made out compared to rent, requires factoring in the interest rate, repairs made, taxes etc, and then figuring the rents in the area and what you saved due to the MID. All too complicated and variable for the point I was trying to make: That a house can drop in real terms but still make the “owner” money if they borrowed money at a fixed rate.
P.S. that is true even if you own the house outright since you need to decide whether you could get a better return on your money elsewhere with the value of the house which could happen in a high real interest rate environment provide more money than the cost of renting even counting paying taxes on the income.
“To take out seasonality, you should look at year on year changes, not month to month, or quarter to quarter.”
Judging what the trends are in housing by looking at YOY tiny variations is the road to hell. Look at what has been going on for the last four years with the backdrop of what went on the previous decade at least. Housing is going sideways. It did not correct after 2006, only partly.
“Year on year, Case Shiller shows an increase. Whether people think it is statistically significant is a different question.”
Questions of statistical significance aside, the YOY price increases are an impressive testament to the Fed’s determination to financially engineer housing price inflation.
It may not be in their mandate, but they nonetheless are trying and succeeding in the effort. Hats off to the Fed!
Great article. As long as people can eat, they’re usually at least content. Hence the bread and circuses of Rome. Reading up on the fall of Rome, it comes to mind that in the final days of that empire, there was much concern over the allotment of grain to the public. In the end, it was probably food, too, that did Rome in.
We posted recently pondering on what would happen if the EBT/SNAP system were to crash nationwide on the first of the month. The following link (thanks to Spook for sharing here) is a possible preview of what would happen in a TEOTWAWKI scenario when the bread is no longer delivered and the sheeple have to create their own circuses.
http://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/bracken-when-the-music-stops-how-americas-cities-may-explode-in-violence/
So thinking from the PTB point of view it would be a good time to take guns from the people. If you remember just before the stock market crash and recession, Orrin Hatch helped to change the bankruptcy laws to make it more difficult to walk away from debt. Of course, no one saw the collapse coming. (sarcasm on). The push to ban guns suggests to me a collapse far worse than 2008.
That’s just crazy talk Dan. We need to give up our guns so everybody will be safe. Don’t worry, the criminals will turn theirs in too. Sorta like how the NDAA has all kinds of crazy language that will never be actually used. I know this because a VIP read it to me while reading a TelePrompTer.
And this inflation talk is just insane. Our leaders have been educated at the best Universities. Those prices that appear to be rising at the grocery store must be mis-marked. I suggest you talk to the store manager and get it corrected before anyone else gets overcharged.
This article predicts that after flash mob looting that stores won’t be restocked. Mob looting happened in Brazil back when the military ran the country. The stores were restocked after the looting, which was considered a cost of doing business.
And who believes that the government doesn’t have plans to shut down cellphone/wireless service in specific areas, when it becomes obvious that the system is being used to organize “flash riots”?
Both parties had vested interest in keeping the poverty issue alive and festering. the Democrats. because they have a bunch of their supporters employed in trying to “fix” the problem…..but if it’s fixed, they are out of work.
The Republicans never wanted it fixed, because it was too handy a hammer to beat Democrats over the head with at election time.
I got news for all my Red-state friends. If this comes to pass, there are going to be riots in the suburbs, too. And what is some little 1000-2000 inhabitant town in the sticks full of retirees going to do, when say, 20-30 kids with AKs decide to take over the place?
To say nothing of kooks who might just take up shooting people for General Principle.
The sky will be blackened with black swans.
I think someone that is 75 and also has an AK stands a much better chance against a teenager with an AK than a 75 year old that tries to fight against a teenager with a baseball bat, to say nothing about multiple teenagers with baseball bats.
This is particulary true if the 75 year old goes to the range with his gun and practices. Most gangbangers just spray and pray and don’t even hold a lot of guns right because it is not the cool way.
“Most gangbangers just spray and pray ”
.. and hit the target any-way.
Duh. That’s the bloody(!) point.
No Oxide, I think the bloody point is a gun is actually more valuable to an innocent person that may be frail than it is to a criminal who is probably much stronger and younger. Even society gained from early firearms. Knights use to be larger and stronger than the general population and could easily dominate due these points and their armor. When guns were introduced, more equality and finally democracy resulted.
If society breaks down any woman without a gun or a very large male(s) to protect her will be raped. Old people will have everything taken away if they are without weapons. Most street criminals are big and dumb, however the one thing they fear is a potential victim that might offset their advantage with a weapon.
If they are shooting at someone trained like the police, they usually find themselves getting shot down before they hit the target.
If society breaks down any woman without a gun or a very large male(s) to protect her will be raped.
Could that be considered using firearms to protect women from “legitimate rape”?
Per wikipedia, Yemen and Serbia rank #2 and #3 (after the U.S) in guns per capita.
Serbian and Yemeni women must be super empowered as a result of all those guns.
“And what is some little 1000-2000 inhabitant town in the sticks full of retirees going to do, when say, 20-30 kids with AKs decide to take over the place?”
Very interesting question! How close do these kids have to be to hit a target the size of a softball that is returning fire? If I drop the first one at 400 yards, how long will it take the others to decide which direction to run? If they run towards me, and I can chamber and fire every three seconds, how many will be left at 50 yards? Will they be that motivated to overrun me when some of them are lying down? What surprises might they encounter in those 400 yards? AKs are not everything. Smokeless powder and brass cartridges are not everything.
My friend 400 yards behind me will have the answer to some of those questions. And so on. Little towns have lots of stubborn people, generous and kind, to a point.
“Serbian and Yemeni women must be super empowered as a result of all those guns.”
Post a GUN FREE HOME sign in front of your house SF, see how that works our for you.
As long as people can eat, they’re usually at least content.
It may be water (and then by extension, food) that does us in.
Unless of course we all develop a taste for insects. Mmmm, protein.
Rising food prices are a far bigger problem than any other our nation faces today.
Rising fast in Brazil.
How is the drought in the Northeast?
How is the drought in the Northeast?
Horrific.
Two from the Post:
“The (American Federation of Government Employees) union says the Pentagon’s budget plan shows “unapologetic bias in favor of contractors, regardless of cost.”
In a statement Friday, the union said Panetta’s plan would place an unfair burden on the civilian workforce, compared with agency contractors.
“Despite the fact that contractors make up 70 percent of the Pentagon’s costs for delivering services, while federal employees make up just 30 percent, the Defense Department is requiring components to reduce the cost of the civilian workforce without any remotely equivalent requirement to reduce contractor costs,” according to the labor organization.
http://m.washingtonpost.com/national/fiscal-issues-put-federal-workers-in-crosshairs–again/2013/01/14/2f87557a-5e87-11e2-90a0-73c8343c6d61_story.html
http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/federal-eye/wp/2013/01/15/budget-chief-to-agencies-prepare-for-across-the-board-spending-cuts/
I know a woman who is an IT manager at a federal government agency. She’s never done any real IT work herself and all the real work is done by contractors (according to her). She is paid a very handsome salary to babysit her contractors. She also got to move to the head of the line to be hired because she was female and her husband is in the military.
Nice work if you can get it.
“I know a woman who is an IT manager at a federal government agency. She’s never done any real IT work herself and all the real work is done by contractors (according to her).”
This is not uncommon.
The agency I deal with most is GAO. The senior attorneys there are extremely competent, but the AGCs and Deputy AGCs (the levels above senior attorneys) are most often in their positions because they played politics well. These are often the people most likely to come from private firms… and later return to private firms to become partners.
The work? It is mostly done by a) lower level staff attorneys and b) the protestor and intervenor firms, who basically instruct the GAO how to interpret FAR, NDAA, etc etc.
GAO tends to be pretty effective though. We usually get a protest decision back in a little over 2 months (quite a bit less than what the law requires)
I’ve seen this plenty in the private sector as well.
It’s what makes me laugh when I hear people say hard work and being good at your job will get you ahead.
Who you know, not what you know, is the more common precursor to “success”.
Tell me about it. A guy I know was the architect for a project at HP. The project was a disaster, so they gave him a mulligan. He threw away 2 years worth of code and redesigned the sucker.
Two years later and after a complete rewrite … It still didn’t work.
He was promoted to manager.
Hey, he now has experience with handling project that aren’t going well.
Damn unions!
Oh wait…
The Modern Day Metternich
Exit Geithner
by DEAN BAKER
January 14, 2013
counterpunch.org
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s departure from the Obama Administration invites comparisons with Klemens von Metternich. Metternich was the foreign minister of the Austrian Empire who engineered the restoration of the old order and the suppression of democracy across Europe after the defeat of Napoleon.
Just to remind everyone, during his tenure as head of the New York Fed and then Treasury Secretary, most, if not all, of the major Wall Street banks would have collapsed if the government had not intervened to save them.
Had it not been for Geithner and his sidekicks we would have been permanently rid of an incredibly bloated financial sector that haunts the economy like a horrible albatross.
The actual site is down this morning. This is the actual link if it the site comes back online soon:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/01/14/exit-geithner/
This is the google webcache link if it takes a while.
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:CJrY1htvqesJ:www.counterpunch.org/2013/01/14/exit-geithner/+dean+baker+geithner+exit&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
“Had it not been for Geithner and his sidekicks we would have been permanently rid of an incredibly bloated financial sector that haunts the economy like a horrible albatross.”
How would it have been in his interest to poke prospective future employers in the eye?
Tim Geithner May Go Directly From Treasury to a Cushy Banking Job
Haven Pell
in Business, Banks
6 days ago
Imagine for a moment that you are Timothy Geithner, the Treasury Secretary appointed by President Obama. You are 51-years-old and you have just spent four years as a punching bag for congressional Republicans. What’s next? The answer is obviously important to Geithner, his wife, and their two children, but it is also surprisingly important to the rest of us.
What makes it important is Geithner’s age. He could easily have 20 more years of working ahead of him, maybe more. Anyone in his position would long ago have begun thinking about the “what next” question.
Like former President Bill Clinton and, in 2017, President Obama, what might once have been viewed as the culmination of a career has turned in to a stepping-stone. How is the retiring secretary of the treasury or president of the United States to think about his or her next job?
Geithner could look to Alexander Hamilton, America’s first treasury secretary, for ideas, but returning to New York to practice law before rowing across the Hudson River to be shot in Weehawken seems uninspiring.
…
It is hard to imagine less than a fat seven-figure advance for a book about navigating the country through the financial crisis and speaking fees in the tens to hundreds of thousand-dollar range. Given his position, he almost has to write the book if only to defend against the others who will tell their side. The speeches – especially to dodgy overseas audiences – are sometimes embarrassing but it’s payback time.
But that still leaves the real job – the nine to five thing. Wall Street seemed obvious to several who work there. All dove for the cover of anonymity in trade for their answers.
Hedge fund or investment bank? Investment bank definitely because of the door opening possibilities.
…
Just think if we had not save the masters of the universe and instead of the U.S. bankruptcy laws, we had put debtors’ prison in the constitution, all most all the PTB would be in prison. We would not have had much moral hazard. ( Note: I am not advocating debtors prison just dreaming of what could have happen).
http://debtprison.net/wordpress/297/the-real-debt-prison-in-united-arab-emirates-uae/
Lennar Plans $1 Billion of Apartments in Rental Foray
By John Gittelsohn - Jan 15, 2013 4:16 PM ET
Bloomberg
Lennar Corp. (LEN), the largest U.S. homebuilder by market value, said it plans to diversify into apartments with the construction of $1 billion of multifamily properties as rental demand climbs.
The Miami-based company plans to start building 3,000 apartments at a development cost of $560 million this year, Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said today on a conference call.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-15/lennar-plans-1-billion-of-apartments-in-rental-foray.html
The first projects are a $36 million, 316-unit community in Jacksonville, Florida, in partnership with Carlyle Group LP (CG), and a $32 million, 264-unit community northeast of Atlanta.
The Jacksonville project is $121K per apartment. Market rates in Jacksonville are $600 for 1-bed and $1000 for 3-bed, for the nicer properties. Even at $1K rent, those Lennars will take 10 years to pay off. Don’t know if that’s a good risk or not.
My practice group gets a daily update on pending regs and legislation… I was shocked to see today that gun control regs have even been contemplated for veterans.
Here’s the link:
http://news.bna.com/fcln/FCLNWB/split_display.adp?fedfid=29111737&vname=fcrnotallissues&jd=a0d5z9w4g4&split=0
VA Must Improve System Used To Verify
Veteran-Owned/Service-Disabled Firms, GAO Says
By David Hansen
Despite recent improvements, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) continues to struggle verifying veteran-owned small businesses (VOSBs) and service-disabled, veteran-owned small businesses (SDVOSBs), a Jan. 14 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report concluded.
To increase the long-term effectiveness of its VOSB and SDVOSB programs, VA should implement a long-term strategic plan with verifiable performance goals, GAO said. VA should include in it plans to replace the program’s data system, which does not collect enough data, it added. The VA concurred.
Problems Identifying Eligible Contractors
VA has “dramatically” increased contracting with VOSBs and SDVOSBs from $616 million in fiscal year 2006 to $3.6 billion in FY 2011, GAO said.
But prior GAO reports found that VA’s verification process allowed ineligible firms to claim VOSB and/or SDVOSB status. VA’s Inspector General also found that the agency awarded at least 1,400 contracts to ineligible businesses in FY 2010 (96 FCR 107, 8/2/11).
In response, VA revised standard operating procedures and improved quality assurance for its verification program. The agency also started a strategic plan that included improvements to the verification program.
However, VA’s plan does not use long-term performance measures, GAO said. It also focuses on short-term goals and has not been shared with key stakeholders such as congressional staff.
Another problem is the verification program’s data system, which hinders VA’s ability to oversee the program, GAO said. In particular, the data system does not collect important data and has limited reporting and workflow management capabilities.
While VA intends to replace the system, it has not included it in any long-term strategic planning efforts. Inclusion would ensure any new system meets the verification program’s long-term information needs, GAO found.
VA’s verification system someday could expand to a governmentwide system, the report said. While the Small Business Administration runs the SDVOSB contracting program, SBA allows agencies to award contracts to firms self-identifying as SDVOSBs. Thus, a single system would cut down on improper awards.
Recommendations
VA needs to make several improvements before it can expand its verification program, GAO said. These include:
• reducing the program’s vulnerability to fraud and abuse;
• demonstrating that changes have improved performance;
• educating applicants about the program;
• addressing the data system’s limitations; and
• refining and implementing a strategic plan that features outcome-oriented, long-term goals, including data system replacement.
As a result, GAO recommended that VA:
• refine and implement a strategic plan with outcome-oriented, long-term goals and performance measures, and
• integrate its efforts to modify or replace the program’s data system with a broader strategic planning effort to ensure that the system addresses the program’s short- and long-term needs.
Oops, wrong article but another good one.
The new NDAA is *full* of provisions which allow large contractors (think LMCO, Northrop, L-3, Boeing) to buy up “small businesses” to gain their contracts. Even more perversely, there are “mentorship” provisions, whereby a large business can have a wholly-owned “small business” subsidiary and apply for contracts set aside for small businesses.
We’ve been slow the past few weeks and have been working on a lot of client advisories related to this. It’s the wave of the future - - freeze Fed worker hiring but allow “invisible hand of the private market” contactors to reap the bounty. And small businesses will now have to compete against LMCO, Gen Dynamics, etc etc.
Some personal anecdotes. We met a woman yesterday who just received word she (and many other Feds) are getting laid off from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (under Treasury). We interviewed with the OCC in our last semester of grad school but ended up going private sector.
Our ex-coworkers at Dept of Energy inform us that contractor employees on programs funded by Recovery Act money are getting laid off soon. No word on DoE Fed employees.
Here in our dark, murky corner of the Military Industrial Complex, no details on sequester yet, but have been hearing some Fed employee grumbling about possible furloughs. Our current contract runs through 2017, but we anticipate making a job change before then…
The funniest thing (I have a weird sense of funny) is that many DoD employees who may be furloughed for a month are the same DoD employees who will be charged with deciding what military spending to recommend for cuts.
We’re going to save some money short-term with these sequester/debt-ceiling agreements. But it will cost 2 dollars for every dollar saved, because the House is so ham-handed.
We have worked at several Fortune 500 companies. This includes the Education/Publishing Industrial Complex, TARP Bank, Big Azz Insurance Co, Big Azz Mutual Fund Co. And none of which compare to the endless supply of LULZ we have experienced in our short tenure working for Uncle Sugar
Layoffs at the fed level would be big news, but I don’t see anything on google.
Joe, why are you surprised by proposed gun regs on veterans? They are an extremely high-risk pool for PTSD and suicides and murder-suicides.
You should learn how to use Google.
OMB Warns Agencies to Prepare for Furloughs
White House Office of Management and Budget Director Jeffrey Zients issued a memo this week which warned agencies to be prepared for the possibility of furloughs and budget cutbacks in the event that sequestration takes effect this spring.
Among other things, the memo encouraged agencies to identify the most appropriate means to reduce civilian workforce costs, including hiring freezes, releasing temporary employees, or voluntary separation/early retirement incentives.
OPM recently issued similar guidance with information for federal employees on furloughs.
The full memo from Zients is included below.
…
I have always wondered what value the “holding company” model adds to society.
You have the holding company object. It contains actual business units from which it siphons profit.
I suppose it boosts share prices. But it serves to concentrate wealth too at the expense of workers. And increase management homogeneity and too-big-to-fail-ness.
It certainly benefits the PTB at the expense of the society it seems to me. I suppose that’s all that it really needs to be in order to become legal in our current social and political climate.
Corporate fictional constructs are the greatest fiction ever created.
Value to society? Is this a trick question?
There’s a lot of abuse of that “small business” designation by the big boys and girls. Been going on for a long time.
And it’s not just the big companies being part of the problem. By law, the feds are supposed to do 23% of their contracting with small businesses. But they don’t.
“Even more perversely, there are “mentorship” provisions, whereby a large business can have a wholly-owned “small business” subsidiary and apply for contracts set aside for small businesses.”
This is news? This has been going on for decades.
New NDAA includes what some are arguing is a “safe harbor” provision for “small businesses” who rely on a qualified opinion that they meet the definition. If this is how it plays out, the gov’t won’t be able to go after businesses that abuse the rule and get paid out on contracts. As noted previously, many of these are “mentor”/”mentee” relationships where there isn’t really a small business involved. Like I said, clients are asking about this on the regular over the past few weeks.
Joe why dont you get upset over the racial implications of what this president is doing?
No money is being spent on gun control in the public housing projects where most of the illegal guns are, metal detectors to stop them coming in our out.
I don’t know what sensible gun regs would look like, which is why I haven’t opined much on the ongoing gun battles. I do think that overall the focus on guns among realiably-Republican voters does serve to distract the rank and file from how business elites are f***ing them over.
I’m also not the right person to ask about racial issues. I can’t relate to being a minority and I’m not sure how I’d feel living in a project or a high crime area. I would be comfortable allowing cities and states to make theri own decisions about gun control.
My observations about race and class mostly concern the big picture, i.e. implications long after this Presidency. Demographically the white man is in a tough spot, so if your primary identity is racial perhaps you should be freaking out. Well-off whites have few kids and also care little about Lucky Ducky/Wretched Refuse whites. The wretched refuse have significantly more children and tend to buy into the memes/rubber stamp the policies of well off whites. Well off whites tend to judge working class whites (whose primary income is a paycheck and who don’t own real assets) far more harshly than they judge minorities off any type. This is my observation of race here in the US. of A.
No money is being spent on gun control in the public housing projects where most of the illegal guns are, metal detectors to stop them coming in our out.
You should be thrilled then, as all those dark people you don’t like who talk funny are going to kill each other.
“If you buy a house today at current inflated asking prices, you’re going to lose a lot of money.”
Given top-down efforts in place to support housing prices, why do you believe they will ever go any lower, at least in nominal terms?
Silly. It is because he put quotes around it and made the text bold. That is all that is needed to make something true.
(You can detect the sarcasm on this on, Bear, right?)
Got it.
You can’t put anything on the Internet that’s not true
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmx4twCK3_I - 232k -
“bon jour”
What’s happening barrister?
So much for requiring spending cuts for the House to pass Sandy aid…
http://news.bna.com/fcln/FCLNWB/split_display.adp?fedfid=29111739&vname=fcrnotallissues&jd=a0d6a0g1z4&split=0
House Clears Hurricane Sandy Bill
Without Deep Cuts, Offsets
BNA Snapshot
FY 2013 Supplemental Appropriations
Latest Development: House clears Hurricane Sandy bill after fighting back efforts to deeply cut President Obama’s request.
Potential Impact: Passage of supplemental combined with enacted flood insurance bill calls for $60 billion in funds for Northeast.
Next Moves: Senate to be under pressure to quickly approve House version of supplemental .By Nancy Ognanovich
The House Jan. 15 cleared a robust emergency spending bill to help the Northeast recover from Hurricane Sandy, beating back efforts by conservative Republicans to provide much less than requested by President Obama and to offset it with across-the-board cuts to federal government programs.
Lawmakers approved a new version of the disaster aid bill that, when combined with a previously passed flood insurance bill, calls for the Northeast to receive more than $60 billion to recover and rebuild from the Oct. 25 storm. The bill now will be sent to the Senate, which will be under heavy pressure to accept House changes to the legislation it approved last month.
The House bill (H.R. 152), approved on a vote of 241-180, cleared the chamber after a coalition of Northeast lawmakers from both parties led a successful effort to increase the base bill’s funding levels to better reflect those requested by Obama and approved by the Senate and also defeat so-called poison pill amendments that threatened the measure. On final passage, the bill was supported by 192 Democrats and 49 Republicans.
This should help the fatboy get re-elected.
Cory Booker running for Senate instead will basically ensure it.
FWIW, Chris Christie seems like the type of common sense politician I could generally support. Not a teabilly frothing-at-the-mouth type.
He was also a highly effective federal prosecutor before running against Corzine.
No surprise here.
The Master(bator)s of the Universe WILL be obeyed and their land will be repaired.
Everything else, as we used to say here, is just kabuki theater.
At 1:34 of this video the Master Baiter of The Blue Heron Drift Boat makes an appearance.
Jupiter Fishing Trip, Blue Heron II - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hb81XKfnoB4 - 138k - Cached - Similar pages
Apr 2, 2011 … Blue Heron drift fishing in Jupiterby richardsites1,381 views; Jupiter Inlet: … Blue Heron Fishing Boat Riviera Beach Floridaby woodstockb1,249 …
USPS considering legal action w/r/t Lance Armstrong’s $30MM sponsorship contract. Good luck to them…
http://www.law360.com/governmentcontracts/articles/407400?nl_pk=9d07ff26-0986-46de-917f-4b7f3ce1f9dc&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=governmentcontracts
(excerpt)
“The government must decide by Thursday — the same day the confessional interview will air — whether to intervene in a False Claims Act suit filed by former teammate Floyd Landis, according to sources familiar with the suit. Landis has reportedly accused Armstrong and team managers of defrauding the government by accepting $30.6 million from a USPS sponsorship between 2001 and 2004. The complaint is sealed, but some details, including the sponsorship contract’s prohibition on drug use, have been leaked to media outlets.
Many attorneys expect that a civil suit against Armstrong will be hard for the DOJ to pass up, despite its embarrassment in steroid-related criminal prosecutions of former baseball star Roger Clemens.
The Clemens perjury prosecution needed to clear a much higher bar of proof than a civil fraud suit, and Armstrong’s admission, plus the USADA’s report, would provide the DOJ with more evidence than it had against Clemens, according to Paul Pelletier of Mintz Levin Cohn Ferris Glovsky and Popeo PC. The DOJ would also be less likely to face public backlash in a case involving government funds, as opposed to the Clemens case, which alleged the athlete had lied to Congress, said Foley & Lardner LLP partner Michael Matthews.”
Why demand the money back? DId the endorsement not work when it was used?
And why does the USPS use these endorsements? I’ll use UPS or FedEx when it makes sense and I’ll use the Post Office when it makes sense.
False Claims Act. It’s a very powerful piece of legislation.
We mostly see it at my firm in the context of Qui Tam actions.
Foley & Lardner is one of the biggest firms in this area, as they write one of the major annual reviews in the gov’t contracting arena. So if that F&L partner thinks legal action is possible, I wouldn’t discount it.
I understand the legal aspect of it, and that the USPS would love to get that money back. But was there any real damage caused?
Under FCA this would not be the primary consideration.
I don’t think economic damages would be USPS’s primary legal argument. However, you could make some interesting arguments based on what has happened with the USPS being associated with Lance over the past few years. We’d really need to see the sponsorship agreement before jumping to conclusions.
A man walked into a bar with an alligator on a leash and asked the bartender,
“Do you serve lawyers here?”.
“Sure do,” replied the bartender.
“Good,” said the man. “Give me a beer, and I’ll have a lawyer for my alligator.
A lot of sponsorship contracts have morals clauses in them. If he had one in his contract and he violated it (almost certain, using drugs in violation of the rules of your sport would be the most important one), he may actually forfeit any payments and incur aditional penalties just by providing proof - in the form of a confession that confirms the findings of the commission - that he took the drugs.
Of course a company can immediately cut off a current endorsement contract, but I can’t imagine any athlete signing a contract with a morality clause that was retroactive.
Tiger Woods sold a lot of Nikes and Wheaties. Nobody that I know of tried to return their sneakers or cereal (yuck) when Tiger melted down five years later. What grounds would Nike or General Mills have to claw back?
I’m not sure about the morals clause and what Lance’s said. But if the government went after a FCA cause of action, I think it would have a decent ROI.
If they want to file, they only have until tomorrow afternoon, I believe.
You might not be able to imagine it, but LA didn’t have a lot of bargaining power back in the USPS sponsorship days. They needed the money to run a team and his “story” hadn’t really taken off yet.
Crucify him.
Its his fault for choosing to confess to Oprah; He should have sat down with David Letterman and had man talk.
Lance deserves the beatdown he is gonna get.
(((shakin my head)))
or better yet he should have confessed on Imus’s show since he is a known drug addict…..would have made for a very interesting show
“Crucify him.”
Just make him a tackling dummy for Jadeveon Clowney for a couple of weeks and call it a day.
Clowney Hit vs Michigan 2013 Outback Bowl - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENuZHnQlqX0 - 224k
Letterman stepped out on his wife with his production assistant.
Lettetman knows all about cheating and the coverup.
Nobody could have seen it coming!
World Bank cuts growth outlook as advanced nations drag
A man is silhouetted against the logo of the World Bank at the main venue for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank annual meeting in Tokyo October 10, 2012. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon
By Lesley Wroughton
WASHINGTON | Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:37pm EST
(Reuters) - A frustratingly slow economic recovery in developed nations is holding back the global economy, the World Bank said on Tuesday, as it sharply cut its outlook for world growth in 2013.
The World Bank forecast that global gross domestic product will inch up 2.4 percent this year, from 2.3 percent in 2012. In its last forecast in June, the bank projected global growth would reach 3.0 percent in 2013.
Andrew Burns, lead author of the bank’s Global Economic Prospects report, said that a recovery the bank had anticipated last year was now expected “closer to the end of the first quarter and into the second quarter of 2013, rather than beginning a little earlier.”
The Bank warned that a drawn-out political battle in the United States over raising the government’s borrowing limit and spending cuts could hit growth, spark a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar and unnerve financial markets.
The World Bank also cut its forecast for developing countries, which last year grew at their slowest pace in a decade, to 5.5 percent in 2013 from 5.9 percent in the June forecast. It said growth in these countries should slowly pick up, reaching 5.7 percent next year and 5.8 percent in 2015.
…
When your consumers aren’t getting raises or decent paying jobs, your majority retail economy is gonna have problems.
Crazy, huh?
The rich seem to be doing very well…go figure.
The World Bank forecast that global gross domestic product will inch up 2.4 percent this year, from 2.3 percent in 2012.
I love this!
“Hmm. We have to pick a number that is up and to the right of 2.3. Sooooo…..2.4 it is!”
Not that I don’t do forecasting each month in the same way.
I’m seeing more of this stuff:
‘A new report from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies examines lending patterns during the housing boom and current efforts to create a new mortgage market, in the wake of the housing bust. The report, Getting On the Right Track: Improving Low-Income and Minority Access to Mortgage Credit after the Housing Bust, explores how changes to the housing finance system will affect future lending to lower-income and minority borrowers and communities, and what policies and programs will be needed to promote sustainable homeownership opportunities in these areas over time.’
“Accomplishing these goals will not be easy or quick,” says William Apgar, senior scholar at the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, former FHA Commissioner, and a primary author of the report. “Low-income and minority communities were among the hardest hit by the mortgage market meltdown. Since policymakers have failed to address longstanding issues — including persistent racial and ethnic discrimination and growing inequality in the distribution of income and wealth—these same households and neighborhoods may not fully benefit from the emerging housing recovery.“
“The pendulum on access to credit has swung too far in the direction of hindering it,” says Eric S. Belsky, managing director of the Joint Center. “While it will take time – perhaps years – to reform all aspects of the housing finance system that are in need of it, the path forward is coming into view. This report points the way toward an improved system that provides broad access, assures liquidity even in times of crisis, reengages private capital, and strengthens the federal role in anchoring the market while better protecting taxpayers and serving American homebuyers and homeowners.”
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/publications/getting-right-track-improving-low-income-and-minority-access-mortgage-credit
“Getting On the Right Track: Improving Low-Income and Minority Access to Mortgage Credit after the Housing Bust”
Has anyone yet detailed how many low-income and minority households were financially ruined due to unlimited access to subprime loans in the run-up to the housing bubble collapse?
I saw some articles in the last couple (or was it “a few”) weeks discussing that Freddie, Fannie, and FHA had done more to hurt American families than any other factor.
I believe (but could be wrong) that something was posted here as well; perhaps I even posted something to this effect.
It’s an attempt to whitewash history but it will fail as the harsh memories of the personal tragedies of millions of people will remain in the forefront for decades to come. Housing demand is at 1997 levels and falling for this reason.
Their efforts have failed in spite of the billions of dollars thrown at housing yet it is still moribund and morose.
“The pendulum on access to credit has swung too far in the direction of hindering it,”
The question any thinking person should ask is, “How much money does the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies receive from REIC constituents to promote their interests?”
FHA’s financial woes add momentum to housing finance overhaul
11:53 PM, Jan 9, 2013
‘FHA is in a place, solvency-wise, where we have to deal with reforms,’ Sen. Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican who sits on the Banking Committee, said in a December interview with Bloomberg Television. / BRENDAN HOFFMAN/BLOOMBERG NEWS
Written by Clea Benson
Bloomberg News
Financial troubles at the Federal Housing Administration are stirring political momentum for changes to the U.S. government role in mortgage finance, even as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the housing market are recovering.
President Barack Obama’s 2013-2014 budget next month is likely to reflect that the FHA will require taxpayer subsidies for the first time. The prospect of a bailout, coming after the $190 billion the U.S. has spent to prop up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, adds urgency to the congressional housing debate.
“FHA is in a place, solvency-wise, where we have to deal with reforms,” Senator Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican who sits on the Banking Committee, said in a December interview with Bloomberg Television. “That will probably be hand-in-hand with what happens with Fannie and Freddie.”
The FHA’s insurance fund could have a shortfall as high as $16.3 billion this year, according to a November projection from an independent actuary. While the losses largely stem from loans to homebuyers of modest means who didn’t make significant downpayments, lawmakers say the FHA should tighten its limits on borrowers at both ends of the market.
Founded during the Great Depression to spur lending to low- and moderate-income families, the agency now insures $1.1 trillion worth of mortgages, nearly quadrupling its share of home-purchase loans from 4 percent in 2007 to more than 15 percent now. Increasingly the FHA serves wealthier borrowers who in the past would have been financed through the private market.
Together, FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac back about 90 percent of home loans, filling the gap left by the collapse of private mortgage lending in the wake of the 2008 credit crisis.
The three entities operate under different mandates. The FHA insures loans, making lenders whole if borrowers default. Since its inception in 1934, the FHA has morphed from insuring 20-year loans with a 20 percent downpayment to backing 30-year loans with downpayments as low as 3.5 percent.
…
Everything but jobs.
Alpha,
In response to your post late last night… Smith & Wesson 1911 is 8+1 .45 handgun. The Ruger SR1911 is also an 8+1. Both are full-size, large-frame .45’s. There are more compact .45’s that take a 7+1, most of which have a 4.25″ barrel as opposed to the large-frame 5″ barrel…
There is a reason why New York legislature took aim at 7-round handguns and magazines, as it removes the vast majority of handguns from the New York market without refit, which many manufacturer’s won’t do. Why do you think they choose 7 as opposed to 8 or 6 or leaving it at the current 10?
“What they do, gonna ban the AK?
My sh*t wasn’t registered any f*ing way”
Ice Cube, Amerikkka’s Most Wanted, 1991
That’s a pretty damn obscure Ice Cube reference. I never cease to be amazed at the breadth of the Squad’s pop culture knowledge.
+1 for the ’90’s rap reference…
wikipedia:
M1911
Feed system 7-round standard detachable box magazine[1]
Again, that is a 1911 with a 4.25″ barrel, not the full-size 5″ barrel…
Why would you want a 5″ barrel? Better accuracy and higher muzzle velocity. Not to mention it is always better to have more rounds at your disposal.
It’s the standard model, according to wikipedia.
The gun as spec’d in the beginning was designed for 7 round mags, but the magazine well size is determined by the size of the grip. Both the Government model (5″) and the commander (4″) have the same grip size and the magazines are interchangeable. 7 and 8 rounders are nearly dimensionally identical, and the Wilson Combats are a personal fave.
What do people here think of the JSF (F35)?
Even more importantly, how long will the average J6P “true American” be kept in the dark about how much of the JSF money goes to foreign subs? (Mostly in Europe and Canada, but still foreign…)
That it’s a boondoggle and that for the first time the Russian jets might be better than ours.
When I read through the RFPs, amendments, and subcontractor K’s for F35 stuff, I’m always amazed at how every.single.minute.facet of the project is subbed out. Sometimes I wonder what the prime contractors really do.
You posted above about the government employees relying on contractors. It seems to me where at the point where it’s the subs really carrying the load. And, as I said, Canada and UK subs are shouldering a lot of the loads on these projects. And many of the sub’s employees are actually sited all around the world (e.g. India)
Sometimes I wonder what the prime contractors really do.
The trend among manufacturer’s of complex technical products is to sub out the individual modules and focus on “systems integration”. I.e., a manufacturer of fighter jets may have core competencies in air frame design and propulsion, but not in weapon systems, avionics and radar systems, etc. It allows the company to focus on it’s strengths while nominally using competition among sub-contractors to keep costs down for the sub-systems, at least in theory.
Yep, has worked great for Boeing and their 777.
I think you mean 787.
That it’s a boondoggle and that for the first time the Russian jets might be better than ours.
I thought the Mig 15s were considered to be somewhat better than the F86s in Korea? Not sure about any cases since then, and I don’t know whether the first German jets were considered better than the P51s.
I brought this up in a post that hasn’t shown yet, but the Me262 was superior to anything fielded in WWII in the interceptor role, but no more than 300 were produced and fielded. Compare that to the 15,000 P-51 Mustangs produced.
One of the key factors in winning WW2 was our ability to WAY outproduce the Axis.
A quality we seem to have lost with the limited numbers of billion dollar defense pork projects.
One of the key factors in winning WW2 was our ability to WAY outproduce the Axis.
The size of the Atlantic and Pacific was key.
…as well.
But not at first.
Over 1,000 Me262s were built and flown.
The 60 min flight time was a major limiting factor.
If Hitler had ok’ed their production years earlier, they may have been a factor in WWII.
That it’s a boondoggle and that for the first time the Russian jets might be better than ours.
The Russians have nothing that comes close to either the F-22 Raptor or the F-35 JSF currently. The issue with the F-35 is really one of cost, and I would say that the US learned nothing from it’s victory in WWII: to wit, we overwhelmed the Axis powers and Nazi Germany with shear numbers of less expensive and easier to mass produce weapons systems.
Germany had ostensibly the most feared tanks, the Tiger and Tiger II. Germany had the best fighter of the war (barring the P-51 Mustang) the Me 109, and the best jet fighter of the time, the Me 262. Germany had ballistic rockets. Germany had the first “assault rifle”. All were very complex, expensive weapon systems that could not be fielded in sufficient numbers to change the outcome of the war.
My understanding was that in trying to be all things that the F-35 doesn’t do any of them very well. So while the Russian jets can’t do S/VTOL they might outperform in other ways. And be much, much cheaper too.
The F-35 JSF is an amazing aircraft that fails in two ways: cost overruns in the project and too many “requirements” to excel at in it’s primary role as a fighter/bomber. Both the failures stem from a single assumption that I address below.
Keep in mind that the F-35 is supposed to replace the following aircraft across the Air Force, Navy, and Marines, as well as others in Europe:
* F-18 Hornet fighter/bomber
* A-6 Prowler recon/ecm/eccm
* F-16 Falcon fighter/bomber
* A/V-8 Harrier close-support V/STOL
* F-15E Strike Eagle fighter/bomber
Note that design requirements for V/STOL versions for the Marines, Carrier take-off/landing capable versions for the Navy, and stealth for all meant design compromises and complications that drove up costs considerably. The premise that one platform can do it all and do it well is a false one, especially in a single-seat platform.
Average fighter jets get shot down a lot.
See the F-111 produced during the Vietnam war.
A lot of F-16s and F-18s are going to wear out, eventually.
A lot of the excessive cost of the airplane is being driven by the S/VTOL version. Mainly for the Marines, since, God Forbid, they might have to depend on the Squids or Mailmen for Close Air Support.
A lot of discussion about whether an F-35 is better than (say) 3-4 Sukhois. Depends on if you think there is going to be a real war or not. Those four Sukhois will need 4 times the aircrew (and paychecks, medical benefits, retirement, etc. etc.), 4 times the maintenance crews (and paychecks, benefits,……), 4 times the ground support equipment………
A VTOL F-35 makes smaller aircraft carriers possible. How small? Depends on how the problem of “overhead” aircraft (AEW, tankers, ECM birds, etc. are solved).
Of course, most of the cost of a carrier is driven by the systems. The gear all costs the same, whether it goes into a 60K ton/50 aircraft ship, or a 100K ton 110 aircraft ship. Up until recently, the big ship made more sense.
Smaller carriers = Smaller crews = fewer people to pay = more asset dispersal.
This, BTW, is why there are so many people in the Pentagon. A bunch of people who are (hopefully) giving unbiased analysis on what we should be doing with out tax dollars.
BTW, there might be some pretty good reasons why a “toilet seat” costs $700. Anyone who complains about that had better not figure on ever buying an airplane of any type.
Is there really a place for manned military aircraft in a world of drones?
Seems like the cost and risk benefits all greatly favor the drone.
While I agree in principle with your statement regarding drones, they have a singular weakness: they require secure communications to fly and monitor remotely. That communications is their Achilles’s heel and our enemies have already hacked the feeds when used in Iraq.
As to drones that follow pre-programmed flight, they lack operational flexibility required in a dynamic environment.
Having said that, I think we’ll see far more drones going forward than manned jet aircraft…
Drones are a way to fight a war on the cheap, as long as you have total Air (and Space) superiority. Not so much when your opponent has the will/ability to screw with those data links.
The reason the Brits are so heavily involved in the F-35, is because the Falklands war (among a few other) showed the Brits (and a few other countries, like India? Japan?) that they still need an aircraft carrier or two. They can’t/won’t build a ship the size of the Nimitz class. F-35s make a British built/sized ship viable.
A friend just blogged about the military being a jobs program in disguise. Linkey-doo right here.
“How long before the public starts to look upon the military as a welfare & jobs program, and start demanding cuts?”
Not long if you judge by HBB. Most of us want military cuts first and foremost. The question is whether to cut R&D and weapons systems spending or primarily go after the costs of maintaining massive personnel numbers at home & abroad. The latter seems better in the long run but would be very painful in the short run (as your friend notes, a “flooded” job market when there are few good jobs).
Even more importantly, how long will the average J6P “true American” be kept in the dark about how much of the JSF money goes to foreign subs? (Mostly in Europe and Canada, but still foreign…)
I think that a number of NATO countries have agreed to purchase some F-35s whenever they’re available. Part of that deal probably involved some of their subcontractors getting some of the work.
Jan. 16, 2013, 10:18 a.m. EST
Sorry Mr. President, we are a nation of deadbeats
Commentary: Throughout history, we’ve left creditors high and dry
By Al Lewis
DENVER (MarketWatch) — Scott Reynolds Nelson, a history professor at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Va., came out with a book last September called “A Nation of Deadbeats.”
Subtitled “An Uncommon History of America’s Financial Disasters,” it chronicles crises as far back as the 1700s. Most of these episodes left the foreign creditors wondering whether Americans would ever pay their debts.
Slave owners in the 1800s, for instance, borrowed heavily from overseas investors, promising higher returns from cotton production. These projections fell short and the slave owners defaulted en masse.
Railroads in the 1850s created what Nelson argues were the first collateralized debt obligations. They sold bonds based on mortgages for homesteads along the tracks. Overseas investors snapped them up and then they went belly up.
History truly repeats. As the lending cycle accelerates, bankers, brokers, money lenders and insurers eventually lose their wits. Greed, if not sheer momentum, overwhelms them, and soon they can no longer tell good loans from bad. When the music stops, they hide from creditors, file bankruptcies and lobby for government rescues. Read Brett Arends’ column on the recent history of Americans walking away from debts.
This impulse may be universal to human societies, but Americans have a special knack for it.
“We are supremely talented at selling really bad debt,” Nelson explained in a telephone interview. “It’s an American gift. We have always had an amazingly slick sell-side. It’s selling the Brooklyn Bridge. It’s selling land in the West that we don’t own.”
Considering this historical context, President Barack Obama should have never said, “We are not a deadbeat nation” as he did on Monday in drumming up support for another monumental raising of America’s $16.4 trillion debt ceiling.
Even if this claim is technically true, it is the sort of denial that can only rouse suspicions. It is like having to say “I am not an alcoholic,” or “I do not beat my wife.” It comes off like President Bill Clinton: “I did not have sex with that woman.” President Richard Nixon: “I am not a crook.” Or Tour de France loser Lance Armstrong: “I have never doped.”
“America is definitely a nation of deadbeats,” Nelson said.
…
It is why bankruptcy is addressed in the constitution and the Congress given the right to make laws on the subject instead of leaving it to the states.
Sounds like we’ve been racking up unpayable debt since way before the Fed came to be, even back in the good old gold standard days.
EXCELLENT recommendation!
I’ve read of most of these disasters. Nice to see them gathered in one place for easy reading and reference.
See also the 1st and 2nd Banks of the United States. A real eye opener and amazing, scary parallels to today’s FIRE sector.
Almost 200 years ago.
This country was created by bubble after bubble after disaster after disaster.
I laugh when I hear people talk about the efficiency of capitalism. The only damn it’s ever efficient at is losing other people’s money.
woo-hoo!
Lay-offs in the office today!
But I thought the streets in Texas, especially in Austin, were paved with gold.
That’s what everyone thinks!
People keep moving here…
Here’s hoping you make it through the meat-grinder of pink slips…
I’m still here, but the managers are still walking around pulling people into conference rooms…
So what happened? Did the company miss its profit target by 2%? Or is the Bangalore office growing again?
Sorry for being flippant, as you might still get called into a conference room.
No. We are meeting goals so far, but projections show slow growth and flap revenue. Thus, they’re taking preventive measures
“flap revenue” - that’s a new term to me.
Maybe he meant “fap” revenue?
Preventative measures: “Our bonus is at risk!”
Flat revenue: “Our bonus is at risk!”
Projections: “Our bonus is at risk!”
“Flap revenue” — after the realization that revenue is insufficient for the concern to continue, management peeps run around in circles, flapping their arms like chickens and squawking.
“I’m still here, but the managers are still walking around pulling people into conference rooms…”
Handing out brand new cardboard boxes?
Unexpected?
Completely unexpected. We just some good bonuses at the end of last year…
Oh god Brett,
Please PLEASE don’t buy a condo. Keep renting. for the time being.
Brett, is your office by chance located at MoPac and Duval? I don’t know if you’ve ever mentioned exactly where you work, but I used to work at a tech company headquartered at that location…curious if any of my friends are affected.
Nope. I am not in that area…
We don’t even have the same name anymore; we keep getting acquired every other year. We are now part of a very large California based semiconductor firm
So, I got to keep my job!
This lay-off was mostly focused on R&D; depending on your functional area, spending was cut between 5 and 15% as it was explained by my boss 5 minutes ago. Obviously, they expect you to pick up someone else’s job for the same salary.
My particular area was cut by 10%; however, my functional group was slashed 50%…. Engineers were cut by half and technicians were kept in place…
@Brett - my company is expanding into Austin, if you (or anyone else) is looking for a job at a software company. We’re expanding considerably.
Out of the people who left, two are layout people, one is a digital verification guy (incompetent) and one is a validation engineer
My dad worked for a company where an R&D-focused layoff happened. So he resigned.
The company didn’t want that to happen. After all, he was their VP of R&D.
Dad consulted for them for a few months, and then he went on his own way as a consultant. I remember talking to him about what happened to his old company. He said that it had become a shadow of its former self.
R&D cuts wouldn’t really inspire a lot of confidence in the future of the company. Cutting R&D to the bone signals a number of things, none of them good.
Congratulations.
Sincere best of luck to you going forward.
Thank you… I feel safe in the short term as they need people to complete tasks, but this blows!
Why pay 2 people to do the job if you can fire one and force the other one to pick up the extra work?
Because they can?
I thought there was a shortage of tech workers??
Well…there’s a shortage when we need to hurry and get the product out, and there are too many when it’s time to pay them.
Saw the first paystub of the year. I was expecting to see only the SS withholding to go up, but NOT the Federal and Medicare withholdings.
What gives?
If you are over $200k, Obamacare taxes kick in.
If you are over $200k, Obamacare taxes kick in.
Hahahahahhahahaha. Nope, Obama is not a socialist. Not at all. How do the liberal meatsacks on this blog make such bald-face lying statements and continue to get away with it?
Let’s re-examine: Increased SS payroll tax by 2%. Yes, it’s an increase because it was allowed to expire. Who is impacted by this? Anyone who actually earns wages.
Increase income taxes on incomes over $200k as part of more “socialist medicine”. Requires insurance companies to underwrite everyone, including the sickest, and not charge more for individuals with pre-existing conditions. Does the auto-insurance or life-insurance industries charge more for “risk” behaviors? Yes, because they rely on actuaries to model the finances, not socialists.
Assault weapons ban: None of the handguns most used in shooting crimes is on the list of banned weapons. These are primarily small, compact handguns, cheap and easily concealed by criminals. What is banned? Semi-auto rifles that look like military weapons and are used in less than 2% of all shootings.
Where are the liberal meat-sacks to dispute that these aren’t socialist points? That the premise of more government control, higher taxes and less personal freedom aren’t socialist? Come on. Bring it. Let’s hear how Obama and the left isn’t after our guns. Let’s hear how Obama and the left aren’t out to increase taxes on everyone.
I’m sorry, am I wrong about the additional Medicare taxes for people over $200k? Did you think that this was a bald-faced lying statement? My understanding is that there is an additional 0.9% tax for higher earners on Medicare.
Did you think that this was a bald-faced lying statement?
Not at all. The past year, leading up to the presidential election, numerous leftist posters spouted all sorts of crap and I’m throwing it back in their faces right now as bald-face lies.
Liberal, Socialist, Progressive, Statist, Communist, Fascist… Obama and the left have shown aspects of all of these terms while the left spout lies to obfuscate and confuse. Call them what they are: Pathetic.
Requires insurance companies to underwrite everyone, including the sickest,
Without a public option this is our country’s moral obligation as per our mission statement to promote the general welfare. It was not to promote the general welfare of corporations. It is also practical. It saves us taxpayer money for taking care of sick people who couldn’t get coverage. And from deadbeats.
Increased SS payroll tax by 2%
It was temporary. Americans want their SocSec viable and that helps pay for it. We don’t deserve to get it for free. I guess the Republicans want a free ride and have the Democrats pay for them. Republicans want socialism and Republicans pursue economic policies that promote socialism for the wealthy and which in turn can open up the USA for real socialism. Something that you obviously don’t know the real definition of.
Increase income taxes on incomes over $200k as part of more “socialist medicine”
Their taxes are still historically low. What “socialist” medicine. Blue Cross is socialist?
As far as guns and socialism, I’ll tell you America is socialist when the USA public control the means of production and share in the profit margins of Smith and Wesson.
The government may very well put the likes of Smith & Wesson out of business if they get there way. Even if they don’t go out of business, their revenues will drop considerably due to overreaching government regulation on the private ownership of firearms.
The government is telling Blue Cross how to run it’s business, by being required to cover everyone and not charge according to risk.
Higher taxes, especially as it relates to SS and Health Care is more redistribution by the government, another hallmark of socialism.
How much father along do we need to go for government to control the “means of production”? There are many forms of control and the government doesn’t need to own the company, like it did with AIG and GM, in order to control it or it’s fortunes…
I was expecting to see only the SS withholding to go up, but NOT the Federal and Medicare withholdings.
What gives?
That didn’t happen to me. I will miss that 2% though.
I had taxes other than SS increase as well. And I do not make over $200,000.
Which taxes?
I think there will be many people who are having more taken out their checks due to mistakes by accounting (or deliberate excessive withholding under the smokescreen of new regs) and not because of any new regs.
Not going to swear to this, but this is usually the case I’ve see in my career.
I asked the Controller at my company to review to see if there were errors. He said no. My Federal % did go up a bit. No one can seem to tell me why, though.
“Buying a house at current inflated asking prices is a bad idea. A very bad idea. Don’t do it.”
MarketWatch reporting “More upside than downside for housing in 2013″ per Goldman Sachs:
“Pent-up demand is coming back. Recent declines in formations of households among the young and immigrants is likely to prove transitory and further boost housing demand, said Goldman. Of course, they said some of this improvement will depend on the strength of economic growth, which could benefit the rental as well as owner market. Even so, some of that ‘pent-up’ demand wants to own homes.”
And with 20+ million excess empty housing units to select from, I’m sure this multi-decade low demand will be met.
“Buying a house at current inflated asking prices is a bad idea. A very bad idea. Don’t do it.”
Come on troll, show some originality.
Ahh…. the Real Estate Professional get’s called out on his lies and then cries troll. Imagine that.
I’m in awe of some of these blog characters and personalities. It must take real creative effort and resources to pull it off.
Too bad it doesn’t work on the HBB.
For example, I find it weird you can’t tolerate any differences of opinion or nuances.
Most people here (90%+) agree with you that housing isn’t a good buy, there is some room for prices to drop, etc. And it’s natural for us to criticize people who make different decisions; people shouldn’t come here looking for validation about housing purchases. However, I can’t get over how personally you take things and how much you care. If you’re doing well personally, why not just laugh about it? A good example is how FPSS comports himself.
Personally, I do appreciate your general message. I’ve said before that your posts about the cost of building new and the importance of depreciation influenced me when it came to lowballing and being very picky on houses. It also refined my view that housing is an expense, quite often an inefficient one. However, the repetitive nature of this… I hope it’s a joke. Same thing with the complete inability to handle dissent and/or nuance. Don’t take things personally, this is the internet. Live in real life
I could also be wrong and you could be very personable and well-adjusted in real life. It really doesn’t matter to me either way, but I can’t say I haven’t thought about it once or twice.
Truth has nothing to do with opinions and it’s nothing personal so don’t take it personally.
Capiche paisan?
“The point is that we are all capable of believing things which we know to be untrue, and then, when we are finally proved wrong, impudently twisting the facts so as to show that we were right. Intellectually, it is possible to carry on this process for an indefinite time: the only check on it is that sooner or later a false belief bumps up against solid reality, usually on a battlefield.”
- Orwell
That’s correct.
There’s a difference between truth and being “right”. And we’ll stand with truth and against the REIC liars….. every single time.
I have been reading this blog off and on for a while and today was the first day that I thought (or perhaps realized) that you are just a typical internet troll. That was way up at the top. And then I started consciously skipping most of posts with your name on them. And I thought if there was a button that I could just remove every post you write I would push it and feel no loss. You simply add nothing to the discussion, not even amusement. It is all name calling and repetition of the same couple sentences over and over again. joesmith is giving you way too much credit.
I am expecting now you will call me a liar or a realtor. But I won’t see it, whatever you call me.
There’s a browser extension you can use to ignore any user here. Please use it.
Sincerely,
PimpWatch
Every movement needs its zealots.
And its jesters.
And its’ conmen and conwomen and their ruses.
In every party there is one who through his all too credulous avowal of the party’s principles incites the others to apostasy.
-Nietzsche
“A lie is like a snowball; the longer it goes on, the bigger it gets.”
-Martin Luther
Pimp used to be an articulate and very well-considered poster here, but a couple of years ago a few posters got overly nasty towards him, bullying actually, and Pimp went into full retaliation mode and never came out again.
It ceased being amusing after the first week, but occasionally he graces us with some nuance and that old brilliance comes shining through, so one has to forgive him his trolling. And yes, it’s all for his amusement, (obviously) so don’t take him “too” seriously.
In addition to those I mentioned yesterday, I musta missed that nasty period too, because I remember exeter the way you do.
Come back toward the light, ex.
Mr Market sure seems to face as large an army as ever of gloomsters and naysayers.
For instance, check out this permabear’s latest reasons to exercise precaution:
Jan. 16, 2013, 7:02 a.m. EST
Four leading indicators of a market top
Commentary: These indicators are painting a worrisome picture
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The bull market is on shaky ground, according to four leading indicators of major market tops.
Those four indicators are based on the performance of sectors that, prior to past market tops, either led or lagged the overall market. According to a study conducted by Ned Davis Research of returns over the last three months of each stock bull market in the U.S. since the early 1970s, two sectors stood out as usually leading the market: Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples.
Two other sectors, in contrast, typically lagged the market prior to those tops: Financials and Utilities.
The accompanying table, courtesy of FactSet, shows where we currently stand according to these four indicators.
…
Don’t believe everything you read, for sure. Esp. not trulia or zillow or redfin.
And these numbers may be inflated, but the list and sales prices in my city and my neighborhood are easy enough to look up.
The median average home sale price in San Francisco is now $780,000, according to Trulia. That’s up about 21.9 percent from last year.
WTF?!
We started looking to buy last year at this time. Our max was 480K. Inventory was low, but there was enough that we went to 2-3 open houses per week and bid on 4 house. Bought in September.
If we were looking now it be a no-go. Nothing in our price range that isn’t either a tear-down or buy without an inspection or even a walk-through (protected tenants).
It’s 2005 all over again.
Pimples, JTE blocks your post, so don’t bother.
We love our house. I hope by the summer to be able to have our garden on the neighborhood garden tour (it’s that nice, even as it’s overgrown right now) and I will happily spent a few hours out back pruning and planting bulbs. Looking forward to the plans I have for the stairs - installing drawers on the first 4 stairs - and can’t wait to build my first ever built-in floor to ceiling bookcase. Always wanted one of those. Our new chicken run and coop is awesome and totally racoon-proof, and the 2 new hens are finally getting along.
I like to putter, I like to build, I like to garden. Home ownership isn’t for everyone, but it suits me.
You paid a grossly inflated price for a depreciating asset in a market that hasn’t corrected yet. Your losses are so great at this point that they’re incalculable.
Nothing has changed with that.
There you go, emulating Monty Python again.
No condominium gossip for you to involve yourself with Drama Queen?
*snerk*
“This parrot is bleedin’ demised!”
“You paid a grossly inflated price for a depreciating asset in a market that hasn’t corrected yet. Your losses are so great at this point that they’re incalculable.”
Why don’t you change your handle to “Bitter guy living in Moms basement” ?
Why don’t you stop hiding and lying to the public Real Estate Professional?
“Pimples, JTE blocks your post, so don’t bother.”
Everyone else still sees them though, which is a good thing.
New home builder index numbers out today. Headline is generally flat. Regional shows much more variability. West was way up from 45 last month to a preliminary 59 now. First positive reading (over 50) for the West in years.
Last time the west was over 59 was June 2006. Then the numbers were on their way down. Builders in the West feeling much better.
The Fed’s financially engineered housing market recovery has the builders flummoxed…
Obama unveils $500 million gun violence package
By JULIE PACE and ERICA WERNER, AP
25 minutes ago
WASHINGTON — Braced for a fight, President Barack Obama on Wednesday unveiled the most sweeping proposals for curbing gun violence in two decades, pressing a reluctant Congress to pass universal background checks and bans on military-style assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition magazines like the ones used in the Newtown, Conn., school shooting.
The president’s long list of executive orders includes:
_ Ordering tougher penalties for people who lie on background checks and requiring federal agencies to make relevant data available to the federal background check system.
_ Ending limits that make it more difficult for the government to research gun violence, such as gathering data on guns that fall into criminal hands.
_ Requiring federal law enforcement to trace guns recovered in criminal investigations.
_ Giving schools flexibility to use federal grant money to improve school safety, such as by hiring school resource officers.
_ Giving communities grants to institute programs to keep guns away from people who shouldn’t have them.
Tucson eliminated the school resource officers a few years ago. City budget cuts and all that.
I thought this was a lousy idea.
In addition to not having an officer or two on site when the SHTF, what about the career interests of the kids? One of my best high school friends wanted to be a cop, and she was going to do it come Hades or high water. So, she became a cop.
One of the roles of law enforcement is to well, be a role model. That’s why I think the resource officers are useful.
Matter of fact, everyone in the school serves this function. Teachers role modeling teaching careers, the maintenance and repair crews doing the same thing, and so on.
One of the roles of law enforcement is to well, be a role model. That’s why I think the resource officers are useful.
In Akron, the resource officers not only bear arms, sometimes they break them.
Where in NE Ohio are you? Our last place before leaving was near the Lakewood gold coast. Also lived on the east side in Coventry and Shaker Heights back in the day.
I live along the Crooked River.
Stopping Eric Holder from giving guns to Mexican Drug Cartels?
Hey, it worked for Reagan!
Sounds like the school violence epidemic is solved at last !!!!
A security check on a US company has reportedly revealed one of its staff was outsourcing his work to China.
The software developer, in his 40s, is thought to have spent his workdays surfing the web, watching cat videos on YouTube and browsing Reddit and eBay.
He reportedly paid just a fifth of his six-figure salary to a company based in Shenyang to do his job.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-21043693
Got to admire his style.
This is the sort of thing that writers of books like The Four-Hour Work Week advocate.
Respect.
I’d admire it a lot more if he had done it right.
But he didn’t so he’s just another stupid amateur.
How do you know?
They suspect he was working for several different companies.
Why buy a house today when you can rent for half the cost and buy later after prices crater for 65% less?
Are you trolling or did you miss the Savings & Loan disaster lessons?
RAL has santorum on the brain.
Seeing as you mention it, the bubble that formed during the 80’s that collapsed resulted in housing prices collapsing 45%, inflation adjusted when measured from peak to bottom.
You were saying?
A good question.
“Why buy a house today when you can rent for half the cost”
Uh, because you can’t ?
Uh…. sure you can. Even in NYC.
Now carry on with your lies Real Estate Professional.
Placed an order with Futter’s Nut Butters two weeks ago; nada. Called ‘em, but their toll-free line is disconnected. They were successful at dinging my Visa card though. Yep, the recovery is underway, full steam ahead.
Man I thought the Dry Roasted Strawberry Almond Nut Butter-with freeze dried strawberry bits would pull them through the tough times too.
Az Slim
Your southeastern Pennsylvania pictorial on your blog was great. Enjoyed the pics and captions.
You come from hearty stock, for sure.
Colleges spend *far* more on “student athletes” (ROFL at that designation) than on regular students:
http://gawker.com/5976439/colleges-spend-much-more-money-on-athletes-than-on-students-because-athletes-are-heroes
In the Southeastern Conference, the tab is 12x more.
Uniquely American!
“In the Southeastern Conference, the tab is 12x more.”
What is the Pac-12 tab 24x more?
SEC schools raked in nearly $20 million in 2010-11
Posted by Ben Kercheval on February 18, 2012, 11:31 AM EST
The SEC may not distribute as much revenue as the Big Ten and Pac-12, thanks largely in part to their respective conference networks, but the conference home of the last six BCS champions still paid out nearly $20 million to each of its members for the 2010-11 year.
Jon Solomon of the Birmingham News reports, citing the conference’s IRS filing, that the 12 members of the SEC averaged about $19.5 million in conference payout in 2010-11. It wasn’t entirely equal; Kentucky received the most ($19.67 million), and Ole Miss and Arkansas tied for the lowest amount($19.41 million), but all made at least $1.1 million more than the average payout for SEC schools the previous year ($18.3 million).
Although SEC schools will now have to split revenue with 13 other members with the addition of Missouri and Texas A&M, the the conference can, and almost certainly will, revisit its TV deals with media rights holders.
The conference-affiliated network/TV deals and conference expansion have played instrumental roles in the widening gap between the so-called “have’s” and “have nots” of college football. The Sports Business Journal reported earlier this month that ACC members are expected to net at least $1 million to $2 million more a year with the addition of Pitt and Syracuse. The Pac-12 has already announced its bombshell of a deal that will provide the conference with what has been reported to be nearly $3 billion.
http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/18/sec-schools-rake-in-nearly-20-million-in-2010-11/ - 107k
The SEC has the highest ratio of expenses per athlete vs per regular student. College is about football, baby!
Pac-12 has much better research universities and probably spends a lot more on academics. The report lists the numbers by conference. But the SEC “won” for the highest ratio not only bc of how much they spend per athlete but also how little they spend per regular student.
As of last year the Pac-12 had a better TV contract too.
“The Pac-12 has already announced its bombshell of a deal that will provide the conference with what has been reported to be nearly $3 billion.”
FBI: More killed with hammers, clubs than rifles
Written by Staff Report
Saturday, 05 January 2013 10:03
According to the FBI annual crime statistics, the number of murders committed annually with hammers and clubs far outnumbers the number of murders committed with a rifle.
This is an interesting fact, particularly amid the Democrats’ feverish push to ban many different rifles, ostensibly to keep us safe of course.
However, it appears the zeal of Sens. like Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) is misdirected. For in looking at the FBI numbers from 2005 to 2011, the number of murders by hammers and clubs consistently exceeds the number of murders committed with a rifle.
Think about it: In 2005, the number of murders committed with a rifle was 445, while the number of murders committed with hammers and clubs was 605. In 2006, the number of murders committed with a rifle was 438, while the number of murders committed with hammers and clubs was 618.
http://www.tulsatoday.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3836:fbi-more-killed-with-hammers-clubs-than-rifles&catid=61:national&Itemid=109 -
What about handguns, duh?
The article was speaking of Rifles in comparison to blunt objects.
Feel free to raise your hand and ask more questions…I know this is difficult.
County foreclosures show first annual increase since 2009
by Kim Miller
Palm Beach County’s new foreclosure cases increased nearly 27 percent in 2012 from the previous year, marking the first year-over-year increase in new filings since 2009.
A report released this morning by the county Clerk & Comptroller found 15,419 new cases filed last year, up from 12,154 cases in 2011. The report measures initial foreclosure notices sent to homeowners when they first fall into default.
“In 2012, we saw banks once again pursue foreclosure cases after slowing down in 2011,” said Clerk Sharon Bock. “I know that, for the first half of 2013, I’ll be watching to see what moves the state Legislature makes related to foreclosures and to funding for Florida’s clerks, which process the thousands of foreclosure cases filed in the state’s courts each month.”
A nationwide foreclosure report is expected tomorrow from RealtyTrac.
This morning’s county report also looked at the number of deeds recorded throughout last year.
According to the report:
A total of 64,097 deeds were recorded in Palm Beach County throughout 2012, up 5.43 percent from 60,797 deeds recorded in 2011.
There also were 3,259 mortgages recorded in December, a 13.71-percent increase from 2,866 mortgages recorded in November, and a 27.3-percent increase from the 2,560 mortgages recorded in December 2011.
A total of 38,553 mortgages were recorded during 2012, up 36.09 percent from 28,329 mortgages recorded in 2011.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 16th, 2013 at 10:21 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Wall Street is still profiting mightily off the U.S. residential real estate sector, just as they did during the run-up to the subprime crisis.
I presume the Fed’s $40 bn/mo in MBS purchases might be part of the story?
JPMorgan, Goldman profits rise sharply
JPMorgan’s quarterly earnings surge 53%, while Goldman Sachs’ earnings nearly triple.
By Andrew Tangel, Los Angeles Times
January 16, 2013, 5:02 p.m.
NEW YORK — Two major Wall Street banks reported a surge in profits during the last three months of 2012, but analysts cast doubt on whether that will continue this year.
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the country’s largest bank by assets, posted $5.7 billion in earnings in the fourth quarter, a 53% increase from the same period a year ago. Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported earnings of $2.8 billion, nearly tripling its haul from the same period a year ago.
The results sailed past analyst projections, providing a window into Wall Street’s profitability as the economy struggles to recover and as the industry grapples with new banking regulations.
“We’re definitely coming out of the abyss,” said Ken Leon, a banking analyst at S&P Capital IQ. But, he cautioned: “We are not anywhere near euphoria.”
Investors sent both firms’ shares higher Wednesday, during a week in which Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will also report earnings.
JPMorgan’s profit was buoyed by growth tied to an improving housing market, investment banking and its own investments. The bank reported big jumps in mortgages — originations of $52 million, up 33%. Commercial loans grew 14% in the fourth quarter, to a record $128 billion.
…
Way back in 2006, when some of us HBB regulars suggested Wall Street had a major role in subprime lending to Main Street U.S. households, an army of trolls would come online claiming we had no clue what we were talking about, and that Wall Street was fully decoupled from the Main Street housing market.
Now MSM news articles blatantly cheerlead the benefits the housing recovery bestows on the bottom lines of JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
Progress?
A couple of my wife’s siblings or their spouses approached me for financial advice during our annual holiday gathering. They were particularly interested in whether I had any novel suggestions regarding their asset portfolio allocations. I gave them very boring advice, indeed — basically affirmed their current plans and encouraged them to stick to their investing programs already underway.
One of my BILs, who is a wild and crazy type by nature, told me he was over 90% long equities, and was wondering if he should pull back, given storm clouds on the economic horizon and specific worries about the fiscal cliff. I told him he was young enough so that even if the market tumbles, he will have plenty of time to recover.
I am looking forward to finding out how much money he made when the fiscal cliff joy ride was postponed; I’m thinking it must have been a bundle!