Bits Bucket for January 28, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here. And check out Chomp, Chomp, Chomp by a regular poster!
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here. And check out Chomp, Chomp, Chomp by a regular poster!
A cautionary tale, for Iceland’s apparent economic gains are not what they may seem. Again.
“…most of that growth comes from a growing real estate and property bubble in Iceland (but) They can’t tap into the booming property market because they are already over-leveraged…. The idiots and those irresponsible took the foreign currency linked loans and have now been rewarded with a disproportionate share of what little debt relief there has been. Again and again, the sensible and the fiscally sound are punished in Iceland.
I could go on about how servicing household debt takes a bigger and bigger share of every Icelander’s budget, how income levels have collapsed, how the government cutbacks have resulted in massive drops in service quality, both in the health service and in the education system. I could talk about how the Icelandic government has bought wholesale into the austerity myth. I could talk about how Iceland’s nordic-style welfare system is being dismantled. I could talk about how the elderly are being starved to death or how the poor are being refused help. I could talk about the brain drain as specialists flee the country. I could talk about how product selection in grocery stores has collapsed. I could talk about the political crisis where none of the political parties dare to take a stand against the banks. I could talk about how the banks are again expanding and playing the exact same game they did in the bubble. I could go on and on but if you haven’t been listening so far, nothing else I have to say will convince you.
http://studiotendra.com/2012/12/29/what-is-actually-going-on-in-iceland/
Uhh, first paragraph:
“Even a cursory look should tell you that Iceland didn’t throw the IMF out of the country and that the IMF’s praise for Iceland and our government is effusive and that Iceland followed the IMF’s advice to a tee. There are other details there, if you read through the archives, that are interesting, such as the fact that in several cases, especially when it came to the banks, Iceland actually went further along the libertarian axis than the IMF recommended.”
Sooo.. did they follow the advice to a T or did they go overboard in being libertarian with the banks? Within one paragraph this person is contradicting themselves. IDK about them having spot on analysis…
Within one paragraph this person is contradicting themselves. IDK about them having spot on analysis…
Article is so poorly written I don’t make much sense of it. Long on exciting rhetoric, short on analysis/presentation/facts.
It was snark, and well-written snark at that, which mirrored our extended discussion of yesterday.
But the larger point was that the housing bubble in Iceland is alive and well (again,) and that (again,) it’s operating for the benefit of the international banking community and not the citizens of Iceland. We’re seeing the same dynamic happening agains right here in the US.
I’ve lost interest in snark unless it’s a real knee-slapper - cited article wasn’t. I’ve been reading the internet too long, I guess.
I am more interested in facts to back up statements like
the housing bubble in Iceland is alive and well (again,) and that (again,) it’s operating for the benefit of the international banking community
Seems a rather shortsighted way to cut back on subsidized housing costs: Yikes.
“Israel has admitted for the first time that it has been giving Ethiopian Jewish immigrants birth-control injections, often without their knowledge or consent….”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-gave-birth-control-to-ethiopian-jews-without-their-consent-8468800.html
and yet the average person trusts the government unconditionally… “they’d never do that here!” they say…
We already do, drummin j, but in reverse.
I bet there’s 100 million people in this country who do not know that their tax money now is being used to cover the cost of abortions.
ahansen has a legitimate point.
As do I.
Both points illustrate yet again what out-of-control governments are capable of doing. Rights of individuals mean nothing to these goons.
“I bet there’s 100 million people in this country who do not know that their tax money now is being used to cover the cost of abortions”
Let’s be honest about this — would you rather pay to raise the children that would result from these pregnancies? If so, do you realize the magnitude of medical expenditures, food stamps, and rental subsidies this would entail? To say nothing of additional students in classrooms, criminals on the street, etc.
And, if you agree we should spend money raise these kids, why not just come up with a better way to incentivize the upper eschelons of Americans to start having kids again? Our most educated, most successful young people generally have zero or one child these days. My 10th college reunion in next yr and I can count on one hand the amount of my classmates I know that have 2 or more children.
Anything that results in more children born to the least-prepared strata of society is a big mistake, IMO.
No. I wouldn’t.
Here’s one for you to answer, Joe:
Does paying for other people’s abortions prevent unwanted pregnancies?
The focus of the abortion debate hasd always been wrong, imo. Few people LIKE the idea of abortion (maybe 1-2 percent most), even if they support the right to choose.
The debate should start there.
Abortion is not a legal issue.
It is a moral issue.
The answer to this dilemma lies in morality, not legality. Much as most things do in life.
Legalities often result in the loss of liberty, which is what presumably ahansen rails against on this issue (rightly so).
Too many laws and too little ethics is the source of much of our dissatisfaction these days - regardless of where you stand on a given issue.
Think about it for a while, and you likely find it to be true.
A good friend of mine had to drill that into my head for a while. It took me a year or two to really internalize it.
Good friends that will kick you in the behind (and vice versa) are hard to find and impossible to replace. It wasn’t a law that expanded my view of the world.
We are a nation of laws, not morals.
If we allowed people to argue moral reasons against government policies, the government would be worse run than it already is.
“Does paying for other people’s abortions prevent unwanted pregnancies?”
Paying for their birth control does result in fewer unwanted pregnancies and abortions.
http://healthland.time.com/2012/10/05/study-free-birth-control-significantly-cuts-abortion-rates/
http://news.yahoo.com/free-birth-control-means-drastic-drops-unplanned-pregnancies-224643988.html
While I don’t argue your position (you are correct), it’d be therefore unwise for anything to think the problem will get solved.
Laws won’t solve what in reality is a moral issue.
The decades before 1973 proved it, as have the decades after.
Morals are based on social practicality.
Personally, I support mandatory birth control for people who rely on the public weal to feed their children, but find the Israeli government’s selective enforcement a mite hypocritical — to say the least.
“Personally, I support mandatory birth control for people who rely on the public weal to feed their children, but find the Israeli government’s selective enforcement a mite hypocritical — to say the least.”
I agree with both points. Since they already have children, such a policy would not prevent them from forming families. Those with a religious objection to birth control can rely on their church to support them.
I am not sure hypocritical is the word I would use to describe the Israeli policy. Reprehensible works for me.
“The decades before 1973 proved it, as have the decades after.”
I am not sure what you are saying. We were moral as a country before 1973? I find Jim Crow to be morally wrong.
“Paying for their birth control does result in fewer unwanted pregnancies and abortions.”
I’d like to see some TV commercials featuring promiscuous “flat tummy” hotties buying off-the-shelf birth control, and later seen laying a yardstick across their hips checking for clearance. Bring birth control and out-of-wedlock sex out in the daylight, remove the stigma.
The same can be said for big business.
Fascism?
I think my point was the irony. And the blatant racism as the country sends its “settlers” to breed along the borderline.
Drumminj!
I have a new link for the Housing Bubble Blog Comment Search if you want to update the Joshua Tree Extension.
http://www.southrustern.com/hbbcmt/index.cgi
Welcome to the early 20th century.
“Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be much less tomorrow for many years to come.”
Jealous just now or perennially?
Have any of you been in a kmart lately? Is it just me or do their prices seem really high. They cant be selling anything. Why are they keeping the doors open? There is more to this story than we know.
This is what happens when the boomer cohort consumes less and a much small demographic is left to pick up consumption.
Or when walmart kicks yer butt.
I’m old enough to remember when KMart ruled its segment and Walmart was an upstart that mostly served smaller towns that KMart ignored.
Some years ago Kmart went bankrupt , it’s old shares went to zero . Six months later ,it came ‘out’ of bankruptcy ,and bought Sears , and they both headed to where they are at today , irrelevant to most shoppers.
I look forward to the day that happens to Walmart, and it will ,someday.
WTH was sears thinking? Now they are a sinking ship too. I wonder where all the people ended up from circuit city? I’m sure there starting new businesses some where. Seems like they milk these companies for a bit and then take the cash and start up new ventures when the old dog dies. Stockholders get the shaft as usual.
Hostess is the poster boy for this. Why sell actual Twinkies for 50 cents and deal with pesky stuff like employees and equipment and gas, when you can sell the Twinkie name for a lump sum of tens of millions just by shifting around a few obedient electrons for a month? It took them five years to get their grubby hands on the Twinkie name.
K-mart and Sears is the same. It will take 15 years for them to get their grubby hands on the Craftsman and Kenmore names, but it’s probably worth it. Why did Sears play along… probably because they were losing money on their apparel and linens and needed cash.
There’s nothing wrong with “marginal” companies that produce or offer “marginal” product for “marginal” use.
If you think about it for a moment, there are companies that offer or produce “marginal” product in ALL industries and categories, not just retail.
A doc-in-the-box outfit an example of a medicore supplier in medicine.
HP and Dell are mediocre suppliers of computers and IT.
Mediocre product is offered by lots of companies. Oftentimes, this is as intended - and provides what is needed to the extend needed.
Oftentimes, “good enough” truly is good enough.
So why the never-ending derision directed solely at “good enough” retailers such as KMart, Wal-Mart and Sears?
HP and Dell are mediocre suppliers of computers and IT.
What’s that? I can’t hear you over the roar of my HP laptop fan. (Inaccessible! Just blow compressed air at it to not fix it.)
Because they are capitalizing on the quality of the past in order to hoodwink us into paying the same price for the medocrity of the present.*
Wal-Mart does not make good hammers. They never did and they never pretended that they did. Customers know that and therefore make their own choices. Sears Craftsman, however, made very good hammers. Made in the USA, with a warranty. If/when Sears goes down, Craftsman will be sold to a vulture and passed on to a factory in China somewhere. The hammers will be “good enough,” but they will charge a little more, and people who don’t follow the news will pay a little more thinking that it’s the quality of old Craftsman.
This is also known as “lying.” And should be derided.
————
*on a side note, this exact concept can be applied to mortgage backed securities. And to Hewlitt-Packard too.
If you need a hammer simply to hang pictures and do light work, WalMart hammers are just fine.
Again, a “marginal” product sold on the chreap for “marginal” use. Many shoppers do not need a better hammer.
If they did, Sears would do brisker business.
But people do not need Craftsman hammers. Few people put hammers to the task these days.
They’re too busy hitting buttons on PDAs and trying to figure out how to use poorly designed IT systems.
Perhaps a good, solid Craftsman hammer, employed by enough people, would solve endless IT problems at the workplace.
You’re confusing the issue, MacBeth, and doing a poor job of it. Any reader or lurker on HBB knows full well that not everybody needs a good hammer. But for those who DO, they should be able to buy a good hammer, not a mediocre hammer that is stamped with a brand name that used to make good hammers. It has nothing to do with what you need and everything to do with being bait-and-switched.
How would you feel if you bought a BMW for a BMW price and it drove like a Corolla? Well I guess you’re SOL. A Corolla is all you need to get from A to B.
TiBone or a Estwing are excellent framing hammers…For anything else, a walmart hammer should do just fine…
Anyone who needs a good hammer doesn’t buy a CrapsMan.
Seriously Oxy/Alpo…… you really do make shit up wherever and whenever you think you can get away with it.
TiBone or a Estwing are excellent framing hammers…For anything else, a walmart hammer should do just fine…
Another reason why I like the HBB. If you want to know what a good hammer really is, start talking about crummy hammers and where not to buy them.
I am not confusing the issue, oxide. You are.
As fewer people need good hammers, it’s only natural that there will be fewer manufactured.
I don’t understand how that is confusing.
Want a good hammer? Go to Sears. If there’s not a Sears near you, hop online.
Don’t want to wait? Too bad. High quality products often aren’t available at retail. Too costly to stock and warehouse. Just ask Sears.
The Internet is the place for specialty shopping. Before the internet, it was all about catalog/specialty ordering.
Back then, you might wait 6-8 weeks for what you ordered.
Now, you might wait 10-20 days for internet purchases.
Years ago, I bought a Toshiba DVD player. It was very highly rated by Consumer Reports. I had various DVD types, +R, -R, etc that my humble DVD player could not play. Well, the Toshiba was even worse. I then looked on Amazon. Turns out they changed the internals mid-year, but kept the name the same. And the post-change player was utter garbage. It had all the fingerprints of a too-clever-by-half executive. Net result - higher profit for that quarter, lower profits overall, and people like me who now look at the Toshiba name as suspect.
Quality hammers were replaced by the affordable nail gun.
Yes - and all the more reason it is difficult to find a quality hammer.
Neuromance -
As I need to, I am looking to replace my home equipment with Brother products wherever possible.
Yeah, the old typewriter company. THAT Brother.
A few years ago, I bought a Brother printer from Fry’s - the machine is by far the best I’ve ever purchased. Costs more (maybe $50 tops), but boy, does that thing ever run like a dream.
And - get this - the printer is designed solely to print!
It doesn’t fax, it doesn’t print photos in hi-def color, it doesn’t scan, it doesn’t talk to you, it doesn’t receive text messages.
It doesn’t serve you sh*t on a shingle, either. No menu codes to jam-up or drive you nuts.
Thus, it’s a great piece of equipment. It does one thing, and does a fine job of it. It does take printing requests via wireless. That’s it though as far as accoutrements.
I’m looking to buy more Brother products. Hopefully, they’ll continue to survive and make a slew of one-function products that work admirably. I love that.
TiBone or a Estwing are excellent framing hammers
You can buy an Estwing hammer from walmart- online only.
How would you feel if you bought a BMW for a BMW price and it drove like a Corolla? Well I guess you’re SOL. A Corolla is all you need to get from A to B.
I might feel pretty good. Does this mean it wouldn’t be in the shop every few months for expensive repairs?
Quality hammers were replaced by the affordable nail gun ??
Yes but only is some phases of the framing…First, they are heavy and can be dangerous in that you are constantly dragging the hose with it…I have put a 16-penny through my finger before and nailed my shoe to the subfloor so these nailguns although very helpful is some of the production phases can’t help in many others such as rolling trusses…
Nail guns are made for all size jobs these days.
From framing to upholstery.
Nail guns are made for all size jobs these days ??
Yes they are but the Framing nail guns are quite heavy particularly when you add the dragging of the hose into the equation…An alternative is the Paslode cordless which uses compressed combustable gas as the energy… Outstanding tool and very helpful…Just can’t do production with it…It can’t stay up…
You guys think I use a hammer to drive nails??
How would you feel if you bought a BMW?”
You have to live somewhere.
I owned a BMW but, thankfully, never lived in it! -
“What’s that? I can’t hear you over the roar of my HP laptop fan.”
+1 LOL!
If you want a framing hammer buy a Vaughan or a Hart.
Seems like they milk these companies for a bit and then take the cash and start up new ventures when the old dog dies ??
Romney play book….
Or they continue to prop up failing companies for a bit, taking up taxpayer money to buy off lobbyists and unions, or using taxpayer money to start up new ventures that will never work ??
Obama play book…
Both Obama and Romney are wrong, scdave. Don’t be so one-minded in your viewspoints, please. Thanks.
Been going on for the last 30 years. (my god has it been that long?)
“Corporate raiders”.
“Raiders of the Last Fart” is what we used to call them.
Also “Vulture Capitalists”
(How could I forget than one?)
Obama play book…
Both Obama and Romney are wrong, scdave. Don’t be so one-minded in your viewspoints, please. Thanks ??
What the hell is that suppose to mean ?? I did not know that Obama was a venture capitalists that vultured corporations prior to becoming president and thats what the thread was discussing right ??
“Seems like they milk these companies for a bit and then take the cash and start up new ventures when the old dog dies”
So get off your condescending horse please…Thanks…
This really is the Romney playbook.
You can takeover a company and run it at a loss for a surprisingly long time. You can sell off brand names, physical assets, foreign affiliates, etc. You can also get restructuring concessions and keep the company in business longer.
Even if you’re losing money, it doesn’t mean you can’t pay out large sums of money to controlling parties.
Hi, joe. (btw, I’m glad that we’re one and the same).
Obama’s current behavior and Romney’s past behavior aren’t all that far removed.
Obama is taking over the government, which, like big corporations, also can run for a loss for a surprisingly long time.
The government is throwing good money after bad, disrupting markets at will. Disrupting people’s lives, outsourcing work (and money) to higher priced contractors, solar companies, etc. Government is actively siphioning money out of the economy that can be better used elsewhere.
Perhaps I should say “insourcing” work in ways that represent mal-investment.
To me it’s all the same.
Corporations outsource work overseas to profit.
Government deliberately insources work in ways that are costly and inefficient so as to profit (i.e. expand its power and influence). Government nearly always seeks to expand its share of “profit”.
I hope that better explains things. I don’t know how else to say it.
ahansen’s post of Brown’s statements a few days ago represents a breakthrough in thought to some extent (nothing new in his statements, but hasn’t been said in decades).
I like what he said, and I like that it was ahansen who posted it.
Even if you’re losing money, it doesn’t mean you can’t pay out large sums of money to controlling parties.
This is also happening in a MAJOR way to an entire country I know & love.
It’s not just a business phenomenon.
As I recall Sears main source of income has been financing (their credit cards) for a good while.
To be honest, I don’t mind Sears. They have the whole tool thing going on and I drop in on sales days sometimes for cargo shorts.
KMarts around here seem pretty empty, and the one or two times I’ve gone there I didn’t find a reason to go back. The isles are quite large though. Normally there is a Target next door that is hopping.
Hey, VA! Long time no post! Welcome back!
Thanks AZ! Been lurking from time to time, but been slack on posting!
“WTH was sears thinking? Now they are a sinking ship too.”
+1 I was surprised when Mervyn’s folded.
I feel the same way about Apple and many of the larger IT companies.
There awe a great many IT companies that have yet to die, despite screwing their customers and shareholders for a good many years.
Talk about any industry churning out unneccesary, user-UNfriendly product.
I have yet to meet a single IT designer/programming coming into my workplace, actually USING the crap they’ve created for a few weeks to see if it works as intended. You know, before the workers have to use their crap.
Planned obsolescene obviously isn’t solely the domain of Hoover and Maytag.
If there is an industry with a “git ‘er done” culture, it’s IT. There are plenty of nifty textbooks that describe methodologies to ensure quality if software. The problem is that next to no one follows them because “they take too long and we needed to ship yesterday”.
None of that matters from an end-user standpoint.
It IS interesting, though, that the very industry responsible for encouraging and creating the just-in-time mess is the same one that is contributing mightily to screwing up the entire concept.
As I said, many IT companies need to go belly-up.
They suck.
So does IT management. Apparently, they are simply overpaid order-takers.
It’s interesting to me how so much money is spent in and on that industry to create software and systems that actually hamper work being done in the trenches- and in all industries.
So much “technology” is being forced down people’s throats.
Much of it needlessly complicated.
It’d be nice if said technology would actually help the user and not impede them (in other words, not make their day a pain-in-the-arse).
I know that if I were a CEO/CIO, all IT people I would hire or contract with would have to actually use their latest and greatest “technology” for a month at my place of business and in real-life end-use conditions before I’d pay them 100% of contracted amount.
MacBeth, your generalizations are just that..generalizations.
Many ‘IT companies’ use their own product internally.
At my current job, we use our own product extensively - for tracking our bugs in the product itself. For evaluating our own financial performance. Our CEO, VP of Marketing, Chief Development Officer all use our product extensively. And we, the employees, see that in every meeting.
At another employer several years ago, we used our product (a graphical programming environment/language), to build a derivative graphical programming environment for kids/a toy (think LEGO). I doubt my experiences are the only ones along these lines.
But he has the “being forced down out throats” part right.
I really, REALLY don’t need a coffee maker connected to the Internet. Nor any damn thing else besides my communication devices.
I really, REALLY don’t need the improved version of software that now has 5 steps for what used to take 2 steps. Seriously, WTF?
While backends have incredibly powerful and clever, user interfaces have become something designed by the mentally ill.
drummin’ J-
Sure, they are definite generalizations.
That said, using your own product in your own workplace is one thing. Using it at the customer workplace is quite another.
Has your CEO sat down with your product on the cubicle/factory floor for 2-4 weeks to see how it runs at the location in which it is planned to be used?
Can your CEO do the job expected of the customer’s employees by using your product? Really? I’d like to see your CEO prove it while I (their customer) watch. And I’d like to watch everyday, over a period of a few weeks.
For you to determine whether your product is sufficient for customer use, it should be used by you first at the customer location to conduct their business, not yours. PERIOD.
So, for every customer, the CEO should spend 2 weeks using our product at their location. Let’s see now, how could that possibly work?
It’s up to the customer to determine whether the product is sufficient for their use, not the producer. Certainly the producer, if they care to do well, should understand the work their targeted customers are doing and ensure the product solves their problem. I would argue this is accomplished by actually using the product for the task we expect the customers to do - which is what happens in our organization.
Your expectations are way out of line with reality. If the customer wants to be sure it actually works for them in their use case, then they should either work with their direct sales rep to prove it out, or test themselves as part of evaluation of the product.
None of that matters from an end-user standpoint.
I agree. But software vendors are always under pressure to upgrade their wares, even if that means breaking them.
I really, REALLY don’t need the improved version of software that now has 5 steps for what used to take 2 steps. Seriously, WTF?
The thing about software is that unlike other products, it doesn’t wear out. So the only way to get customers to upgrade is by forcing them. So you eventually stop supporting version X, which forces customers to upgrade. Of course, you add new features and change things so the customer doesn’t feel totally ripped off. Of course, these don’t always work so well.
But software complexity has grown and QE/QA hasn’t kept pace. In most cases, test suites, in order to be truly effective, need to dwarf in size the code they test. And no one wants to spend that kind of money, not when customers have been trained to expect endless patches for the software.
user interfaces have become something designed by the mentally ill.
Latest version of itunes. #$%@*&
Has your CEO sat down with your product on the cubicle/factory floor for 2-4 weeks to see how it runs at the location in which it is planned to be used?
Can your CEO do the job expected of the customer’s employees by using your product? Really? I’d like to see your CEO prove it while I (their customer) watch. And I’d like to watch everyday, over a period of a few weeks.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a customer willing to pay enough for the product to demand that level of testing. In the end, we do what we’re paid to do.
“It’s up to the customer to determine whether the product is sufficient for their use, not the producer”
Not in your line of business, it isn’t. As In Colorado said, end users are forced into upgrades that they do not need, want, or that disrupt their business by making conducting business a royal pain in the ass.
If that’s your approach, then I think you ought to be forced into buying new home appliances every three years, with each new appliance loaded with increasingly needless crap to ensure that it doesn’t work as well as its predecessor.
Then when it doesn’t work, YOU get to spend an extra two hours scrubbing your clothes clean in the sink.
“Your expectations are way out of line with reality.
No, they are not. Providing the PAYING customer with what they want is how business operates. The days are quickly coming to a close when any IT schmo can design/program any piece of crap software and get away with it.
If your CEO’s arrogance is typical of the IT business, then perhaps it’s best that IT jobs are outsourced overseas with increased frequency.
I’d much rather deal with an IT guy in Malawi who is willing to provide what I need than with some jerk in Austin or San Francisco.
If that’s your approach, then I think you ought to be forced into buying new home appliances every three years, with each new appliance loaded with increasingly needless crap to ensure that it doesn’t work as well as its predecessor.
———-
Sounds pretty much right when I’ve been looking at ovens, stoves, and dishwashers. God what horrible pieces of crap.
Microsoft Office. Enough said
Textbook.
Office was bad at the beginning. Then they changed it and made it worse! Rather than improve it, they now force you to buy it.
The IT field is pretty slipshod overall. Relative to quality as an industry, I’d rank it at about a KMart or TJ Maxx.
The different between lower-end retail and the IT/computer field, though, is that the former doesn’t make you use their lousy products every day in the workplace.
IT and software in general could be a lot better. But development and test are expensive and illegal aliens in the Home Depot parking lot can’t do it no matter how much time you give them. How much do you want to spend?
Understood.
But why is it so expensive? It’s not as if there’s high overhead costs other than staff.
Cut their pay or move the jobs offshore to employees who might actually give a damn whether their products are effective for end users.
Costs may also be reduced if the goal wasn’t to introduce unnecessary “new and improved” products every 18-24 months.
Perhaps rather than wasting time on unnecessary R&D, the resources could be better spent on paying customers, who might pay IT folks more money (share of profit maybe?) if the products actually worked.
Maybe IT should go the “pay for performance” route. Your stuff works well and saves my company money? Great! Here’s a $20K bonus for all IT folks who worked on the project. (And thanks for kicking tail with a product that works so well.)
Your product doesn’t save me money? It causes me and my staff aggravation? Oh, well. No bonus for you.
But why is it so expensive? It’s not as if there’s high overhead costs other than staff.
It takes a LOT of man power. Say you have a project with 3 million lines of code. First, it needs to be unit tested. That could easily take another 10 million lines of unit test code. Then there is functional testing, which can be automated but also takes a lot of code. Then there is integration testing.
But where things really get hairy is when you get into maintenance. Changing code can be a lot more expensive than writing new code as it is a point where defects can be inadvertently introduced. It requires peer reviews, modifying test code, extensive regression testing, etc.
And then there is the schedule, which is often created without taking into account how lowng it actually takes to complete the project.
So what happens is that corners are cut: no peer reviews, test code is abandoned, etc.
Cut their pay or move the jobs offshore to employees who might actually give a damn whether their products are effective for end users.
Uh, what do you think has been happening for the past 10+ years? Everything is being offshored to places like India. And in most cases, quality has suffered.
I thought it was bought BY sears.
I think it was kmart that bought sears.
What does sears really sell these days? Seems to me tools and appliances. I wouldnt be caught dead in any of their clothes.
If you were pouring hot tar and nailing shingles to a roof, or working on cars, you might find their clothes very beneficial.
Sears has become a niche supplier - not a bad thing at all, if management understands it.
Sears is not about fashion. It hasn’t been for years. It’s largely a supplier to industrial and industrial-lite consumers.
Sears has a definite, beneficial role to play in the marketplace.
And an increasingly unusual one.
If they aggressively promoted themselves as a sturdy, reliable supplier of “old time” equipment/suppliers of “old time” quality, they might be around for several more decades.
they might be around for several more decades ??
Believe it or not, the craftsman brand is not their biggest asset…The biggest asset is their real estate holdings…They own many of their locations…I do not know how to pull this stock market data but there was a time a while back that Sears stock was moving due to a hostile take over rumor because of the potential of liquidating their real estate holdings…
This I agree with. Sears would have done better by dumping the “softer side of Sears” like casual clothing and kitchen towels and concentrated on house-brand tools and applicances and lawn mowers (plus work coveralls and steel-toed boots). Sears stores should be half the size.
Craftsman=worst tools ever.
I have been slowly selling my Snap-On tools from my previous career. It kills me, because they are beautiful tools. Can’t justify storing stuff I never use, though.
I have been slowly selling my Snap-On tools from my previous career. It kills me, because they are beautiful tools. Can’t justify storing stuff I never use, though.
Calm down, Slim. Calm down. You know you want to buy those Snap-On tools, but calm down. Wait until you can afford them.
Darn that tool lust! When it comes over me, it’s hard to control it.
Mine are all the old stuff, too.
I haven’t bought a Craftsman tool in 15-20 years; I already own what I need.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Craftsman quality was in decline, however. Sad, but not surprising. There’s not enough demand at retail to support the quality. Better go online, oxide.
sc dave - yeah, I knew that, but forgot about it. Thanks. If I remember correctly, the real estate holdings played a key role in justifying the Sears/KMart deal.
I’m thinking out loud here, so I could very well be wrong…but in retrospect, with Sears land holdings, it would have been a much better move had Sears become a partner/in-store suppliers of quality tools with a Home Depot or a Lowes.
Construction was the market Sears should have went all-out for.
Sears could still do this - as a provider of suitable clothing and specialty hand tools via Home Depot.
How has Menards survived? Talk about a hodge-podge business. Anyone?
Lastly, Target and WalMart aren’t KMart competitors these days. Big Lots is. Ever been in a Big Lots? Much like the KMarts of old, but with a considerably smaller store footprint.
Doesn’t Big Lots sell mostly closeout items?
I’ve bought cargo shorts from Sears! You all are dissin’ my fashion!
Also, as someone who uses Craftsman tools for working on things like pinball machines, arcade machines, and building benchtop CNC machines I have never had issues. I’m not trying to break loose bolts on old crusty cars, but have done some routine maintenance on my 12 year old car without issue?
some routine maintenance on my 12 year old car without issue
ALL my routine maintenance involves breaking off rusty nuts & bolts, especially in anything that old.
I buy my cargo pants from Kmart. I used to wear cargo shorts to work around the house but now that I routinely use angle grinders to do my routine
demolitionmaintenance chores, I always wear long pants, don’t like those red hot bits of molten metal on my bare legs.I buy convertible cargo shorts / pants at REI, 100% nylon, these are much more expensive, but are extremely comfortable in all weather conditions and are very easy to wash. Unfortunately they don’t hold up well during activities involving wrenching, hammering, cutting and burning.
I haven’t been lately, as most of the locations where I would go were closed down during the Sears takeover. I noticed they had changed their pricing strategy and were trying to go from the “cheap place” to a more “boutique” type of sales environment.
You may recall they started getting Martha Stewart and Cheryl Tiegs and a few other social types to promote the store brand.
I don’t think it was working. Everyone still went to Needless Markup and Target stores when they wanted an “upscale” version of Wally world.
I am seeing rapidly rising prices, size changes and change in brands at my local grocery store. I suspect the FED-induced “non” inflation is hitting the markets now. The money-printing scheme requires that we continually increase prices to keep up with loss of dollar value.
It sometimes takes a long time to see the effects of FEDERAL RESERVE (Not Federal, No Reserves) money=printing to impact the marketplace, as it usually goes mostly unnoticed. In the past, salaries drifted up behind inflation, so most people realized they were going backward, just more slowly. I think the eyes of most people are a little more open these days.
In times past, only a few “kooks” talked about the Federal Reserve and it’s role in American government and economic turmoil. While the press tries its best to keep us talking about the “workings” of the FED with stooges like Krugman, a few more are beginning to question the vary existence of this Cabal.
If I was to rail against a mass-market retailer, it’d be Target.
I never find what I want at Target. They are overstocked with clothing, DVDs and bric-a-brac crap for the bathroom and kitchen. Household items are 20-50% more costly than elsewhere.
I often do find what I need at Kmart, however. (No, not clothes).
I went to one which is pretty close by…Ive notice like lots of stores they are taking away shelf space from in house or private label items and replacing with name brand and more expensive items…
Noticed that with radio shack a few weeks back needed a usb a to b extension cable The $4.95 ones you had to order on line but the $19.95 gold plated monster ones were just sitting there gleaming in the light. same with best buy….
It seems like they are throwing in the towel to walmart..and maybe amazon.
Radio shacks problem is they left us tinkerers and DIYers which used to be their core customers with literally no place to shop locally anymore.
Radioshack’s problem is their antiquated, 30-year-old checkout system. It takes them 10-20 minutes tio get each customer out the door at checkout.
I can’t stand going in the place.
They also treat employees poorly, from what I understand. Churn ‘em in, churn ‘em out. Consequently, those working there know even less that the average Best Buy salesperson, as incredible as that may seem.
That is another sinking ship. I haven’t steeped foot in one of there stores in years. People throw stuff away these days. Maybe they should peddle aapl products?
That is another sinking ship ??
The whole small retail industry is a sinking ship…Big-Box-Stores, Amazon, Ebay, UPS/FEDX and Regional Malls are going to control most of it…It has been said that 50% of the retail buildings in this country could be bulldozed and we would not even miss it..Based on what I see, even in my prosperous area I believe this to be true…Even more so in the smaller markets…
Fry’s if you have one near you. 100 times better than Radio Shack ever was. It’s like a hbyrid Best Buy/Radio Shack, but good.
I LOVE Fry’s. What a terrific outfit that electronics/computer provider is!
I’ve introduced several friends to Fry’s….beats the daylights out of Best Buy and Radio Shack. I agree, a hydrid of the two -and much better than both.
In general, I hate to shop…but Fry’s is very notable exception. The only store (literally the only) where I spend time browsing. No sales pressure from a knowledgeable staff, very interesting array of good, solid, differentiated product, great layout, visible sightlines, decent prices.
I no longer live within 300 miles of a Fry’s. A damn shame.
There aren’t very many Fry’s locations overall, probably a key reason why they are so good.
I bought two flash memory devices last week from my local Frys; a 64GB USB thumb drive for $30 and a 32GB micro-SDHC for $20. Unbelievable how those have dropped in price over the last year. At this point I just can’t see the price dropping much more. I loaded the USB with 43 of my all time favorite movies and plugged it into my Blu-ray player so now I have a complete film library ready for instant replay, everything from Forbidden Planet to The Matrix.
Frys rocks.
1TB thumb drives already exist. They’ll be $30 sooner than you think.
Carl, I have seen 128GB thumb drives at Frys but no 1TB yet. Is the classic disk drive going to disappear? Looking at my system I could run 100% of my programs from a 64GB high speed partition and everything else could be run from a solid state drive I guess. USB 3.0 max is 5GBit which is still slower than SATA-3 max of 6GBit but pretty darn fast.
When you say classic disk drive do you mean rotating media? If so, it seems to be going the way of tape. Which, not disappearing anytime soon, but specializing in big, cheap, and slow. SSDs including PCIe storage is coming on strong for high performance. USB3 is fast for USB, but not in comparison.
I think a lot of us would be best off with a small fast SSD for the OS and critical programs, and then a big cheap slow traditional drive for stuff like video.
Fry’s is up in the Phoenix area. Next time I go up there to visit my uber-geeky friends (a brother and sister who are both in their seventies), we are SO going to Fry’s.
The closest Fry’s to me is Indianapolis. I’ve been going a bit out of my way to visit that branch on my long road trips. It was uniquely good for a while. On my last visit in 2009, its quality/variety had fallen a great deal. Maybe that branch is having problems. Still uniquely good for pieces & parts for DIY computerists like me, though, and I would go a bit out of my way to visit them again.
Atlanta is my closest. I’ve asked Fry’s to come to Va but nothing so far. I’ve been to the one in Vegas as well as two of them in the San Jose area.
There is a place called Microcenter in DC that might be similar, I’m not sure.
MicroCenter in DC is a good place, but it’s not nearly as comprehensive or varied as Fry’s.
“Have any of you been in a kmart lately? Is it just me or do their prices seem really high.”
It’s just you. You must not be getting out much.
Price ARE high everywhere. Did you think we mention it here almost all the time as just an intellectual exercise?
Kmart pricing is high compared to other discounters like Target and Walmart.
Yeah, Kmart is not the deal it used be.
Blue Light Specials?!
Have any of you been in a kmart lately? Is it just me or do their prices seem really high.
Walmart’s prices have also been rising steadily.
I’ve been searching for a reasonably priced men’s size full zippered hoodie made only of polyester fleece, no cotton, for about 3 years. These are widely available in women’s & kid’s sizes but not for men. Finally found one, at K-mart, for $20 on sale. Walmart doesn’t have this.
Still, I don’t see how Kmart stays in business.
Wiki-up “k mart” and scroll on down to “200-present” for an interesting read.
These chain stores take a long time to die and they take a lot of money with them in the process.
Montgomery Ward took twenty years or so - and some many millions of dollars - before it finally gave up the ghost.
Buffett: “Turn arounds don’t”.
The local kmart here cant be selling enough goods to even break even.
You dont have to be a rocket scientist to figure it out. Walk into one of these ghost towns. The overhead just to keep the lights on and rent has got to be outrageous. The one in reno right off I80 east finally closed its doors. Whenever I go in one it seems like its all seniors.
Retail is all about getting products cheap and then marking them up. Seems like kmart missed something in that process.
“Retail is all about getting products cheap and then marking them up. Seems like kmart missed something in that process.”
Actually, you are very wrong. Retail is all about getting people to buy from YOU.
There are many “boutique” type businesses that do quite well, without the “low price”.
Price is only ONE factor. People include service, convenience, cleanliness, “style”, and a host of other items when shopping for products. For those that manufacture, NEW, Innovative products are crucial, regardless of price. Apple is a good example.
WAL-Mart is the Low Price Leader. K-Mart couldn’t compete and lost market share. They simply could not find the niche they needed to be in to bring in BUYERS. WalMart has.
cmon bro
Its obvious you have to have buyers. But to get buyers you have to have the ability to get product cheap in the retail market these days. Walmart kicked their @SS on the distribution side.
It’s apparently not obvious to you.
You think that having the lowest price is always going to get you the Buyers. As I pointed out, that is not true.
If that were true, then 7-11, Kwik-mart, and ALL the other convenience stores would have been put out of business.
But go on believing that whatever you write is true.
It’s obvious, isn’t it.
nothing price cant fix dude.
Not to mention Nordstrom, Macy’s, Bloomingdales, and the other higher end stores.
It depends on the type of retail and even then different buyers will have different priorities.
I was looking for a book for my 3 year old nephew as a gift. I could have gone to B&N and gotten a discount. I could have messed around on Amazon and gotten a discount. What I did was go to the best toy store in the area that has a huge, well-edited book section that is divided up by topic and age range so I could specifically look just at the 15 or so picture books that were truck themed. Had my selection in 5 minutes, used the cell phone to check with his parents that he didn’t already have it and walked out with a full price book. I rewarded the store for making my shopping trip easy by giving it the full price on the book.
Now, if I were buying 10 or 15 books and other items, I would probably look for a discount. If I were completely broke and needed to pinch every penny, I would go to a yard sale. If knew exactly what I wanted ahead of time I would have looked for a discount and/or free shipping on-line. But I didn’t know what I wanted. I had to find it. I only wanted one and any discount was going to save me less than $5, so I went to the place that would help me find something good that I didn’t already know about. That is a particular kind of retail, but also a particular customer. You can’t create a multinational retail empire on those customers, but you can run a small local chain of toys/kids book store on that customer, especially in a wealthy county.
And the book is his new favorite.
same with shopko here
ShopKo bailed out pf Colorado years ago. Which was too bad, as their stores were nice and clean, unlike KMart
Yeah, love it. Nice, clean, and quiet..
Buffett: “Turn arounds don’t”.
Once a company has financial parasites like Gramps sucking from their arteries the leadership are forced look off-shore for child labor to close the gap. The parasites continue eventually installing their own crony management who leverage their assets and shutdown the benefits to keep the blood supply flowing. Some even have two sets of books to lure the small investors with fake numbers; rite aid comes to mind.
Wiki-up “k mart” and scroll on down to “200-present” for an interesting read ??
I did…Whats new eh ?? They paid back the loans…so what…Why did they not go to jail…Corporate thieving is not a crime I guess…
You have a problem with corporate communism?
A closely watched pot never boils over.
Wonkbook: Everyone is saying the sequester will happen. Will it?
Posted by Evan Soltas on January 28, 2013 at 8:16 am
Welcome to Wonkbook, Ezra Klein and Evan Soltas’s morning policy news primer. To subscribe by e-mail, click here. Send comments, criticism, or ideas to Wonkbook at Gmail dot com. To read more by Ezra and his team, go to Wonkblog.
Wonkbook’s Number of the Day: 0.7 percent. That’s the likely hit to GDP growth this year which will result if the U.S. does not avert the sequester. Growth has averaged around two percent annually since the recession, so that would be a significant blow — and one that would come on top of the fiscal contraction in the “cliff” deal.
…
The sequester will be discussed at a meeting with our office’s Big Cheeses this week. From what we’ve read, a one day a week furlough from April through the end of September may be a possibility. Worst case scenario, layoffs.
“From what we’ve read, a one day a week furlough from April through the end of September may be a possibility.”
What would be the difference between that and a temporary 10% pay cut over FY2013?
And given that you (presumably) are under contract for your current rate of pay, would you (presumably) be due back pay once the sequester ended?
My ‘ten percent’ is relative to a full year’s pay. But cramming this into six months would make it feel like a twenty-percent hit in take-home pay. California state employees already went through this starting a few years back (at least those whose positions weren’t eliminated).
20 percent pay cut in the cards?
Monday - 1/28/2013, 2:00am EST
By Mike Causey
Hoping for a buyout this year? Would you gladly take early or regular retirement immediately if offered a before-deductions payment of $25,000. If the answer is “yes,” then good luck with that.
The odds of you being hit with a pay cut, of up to 20 percent, are greater than your chances of a buyout.
During the early years of the current recession, it was not unusual for private-sector workers to take temporary pay cuts (of a few months to a year) ranging from 5 to 20 percent. People continued to work their regular five-day shifts, but were paid less. Even unionized groups opted for the temporary pay cut rather than layoffs. Now, temporary pay cuts may be coming to the federal workforce.
…
The FedGov workers will complain, but they know it’s even harsher in the private sector, so they’ll grin and bear it. For one thing, in the private sector, temporary pay cuts tend to become permanent pay cuts.
…and pensions an almost mythical creature.
” a one day a week furlough from April through the end of September may be a possibility.”
Three day weekends during spring and summer? Sounds like a blessing to me - if you can afford the pay cut.
There is only one drawback: So far, none of the articles I have seen discuss any cutback in workload, only in work hours.
If this turns out as it did for CA State employees, then fedgov workers will get paid 20% less for six months to do the same work in 80% of the time as before. I guess you could argue it will make the government more efficient if they pull this off…
There is no way they will let people all pick Fridays or Mondays to take off. Days will be assigned depending on the needs of the department.
And to the extent that people can get stuff done in 80% of the time, it will happen. but it doesn’t always work that way. Expect back logs. That is why I warned people to renew passports and send in their tax returns (if a refund is expected) early. This could be a heck of a mess.
Three day weekends during spring and summer? Sounds like a blessing to me - if you can afford the pay cut
Denver is a toilet in the summertime.
While we don’t welcome the cuts, it will mean not driving to Telluride, Ouray, Silverton, Durango, but spending more time in Rocky Mountain National Park, Indian Peaks Wilderness, Lost Creek Wilderness, and other points closer to home.
In the time it takes a coastal elitist Beltway bedwetter to reach the Maryland state line, we are already on the chairlift or hiking above elevation 12,000 feet
What makes you think that the National Parks won’t be impacted by the sequester?
Do you know what its like to to get a first row parking space at a beach at noon on Tuesdays?…… I love it
There is no way they will let people all pick Fridays or Mondays to take off
That’s true. I feel like management is milking this company for all its worth and then will hose shareholders. SHLD was a 200 stock awhile back, now at 40. How long does it usually take for executives and management to steal all the equity?
“How long does it usually take for executives and management to steal all the equity?”
Usually right up to the point when the company’s share price collapses overnight and top management begins bleating, ‘Nobody could have seen it coming!’
you mean pull a mozillo?
Both you guys are using incomparable examples. K-mart lost market share to Walmart. The executives didn’t do a “RUN UP” the price on false reporting and imaginary sales volumes, fraudulent accounting and Ponzi schemes, while then liquidating their shares and moving out.
The executives needed to “re-make” the K-mart brand, just like JC Penney. Both have tried to compete in the new retail environment of “low prices”, and haven’t done well.
History is replete with failed businesses that did not necessarily involve the executives running a scam to run away with the money. Montgomery Wards. TG&Y. Neisner’s. Rexall Brands.
Western Auto. Tandy stores. Studebaker. Oldsmobile. Rambler. GrandWay. Maryland Fried Chicken. Biff-Burger.
What-a-Burger. I think Sonic is going down now, too.
It’s called Capitalism. Sometimes it’s just a changing marketplace. It’s not ALWAYS a criminal conspiracy.
The only Criminal Conspiracy is the FED.
Sonic’s burgers make Mickey D’s look good.
now thats a good laugh. Keep trusting the corporations and you are guaranteed to lose money.
Almost every example you just gave involved executive malfeaseance… at BEST.
Sonic has great commericals and good drinks. That’s a enough reason to keep them around.
“A dude with a face tattoo actually turned out to be dangerous.”
I’m convinced that the brown and orange color scheme was a conspiracy not to attract customers, but to drive them away.
I’ve heard that, as a general rule, orange is not a good color to use in the American market. It’s too loud for American tastes.
It’s too loud for American tastes.
Hard to imagine such a thing.
Orange works well enough for Home Depot. The brown, on the other hand…
Orange works well enough for Home Depot.
Ha ha.
A closely watched pot never boils over.
I always find this expression interesting. I have never heard anyone else say it. It seems to be a version of the common saying, “a watched pot never boils”, but it has almost the opposite meaning, doesn’t it?
example of the second phrase: the next recession…for it is watched carefully and never seems to come.
example of the first pharse: benghazi…for it wasn’t closely watched and boy did it ever.
your right
It seems like the party can last a lot longer than you think. It seems like you eventually run out of buyers but towards the end they get creative when it comes to allowing people to enter the party.
“a watched pot never boils”
I’ve always assumed this was a more cryptic version of the relatively explicit, ‘A closely-watched pot never boils over,’ but I don’t claim to be an authority.
This would be a great discussion for the radio show A Way with Words.
I think ” a watched pot never boils” means that you shouldn’t constantly check something, for it will make whatever you’re awaiting take even longer (ie by constantly taking the lid off a pot to check it, you make its boiling take longer).
Your version seems to be almost the opposite. You should constantly check something, to make sure nothing bad happens. (’Boiling over’ being a bad thing.)
The common phrase has always interested me because it has a certain buddhistic quality. Your version seems more protestant, maybe Mormon?
“protestant”
It was on my (Lutheran) grandma’s kitchen placard, which is now in my sister’s possession. I always applied the interpretation you suggest above, especially given that my grandma was a fantastic multitasker who took good care of her property, including a large garden from which she fed her grandkids in exchange for a nominal amount labor from her son, my dad, and his kids. She definitely had no time available to sit around watching pots while waiting for them to boil.
But after more recently coming across the alternative version of the saying (”A closely-watched pot never boils over”), I became curious about the close similarity between these two expressions, and whether they may have evolved from a common ancestor, even though their meanings apparently differ.
A closely watched pot, and a window to throw it out off… Love these HBB metaphors!
Make sure there isn’t boiling water in the watched pot you throw out the window…
Jan. 28, 2013, 8:17 a.m. EST
Commodities’ fate in Chinese and Fed hands
By Sara Sjolin, MarketWatch
Commodities are in for some good times, but don’t count your bullion just yet. Analysts at Danske Bank say that strong Chinese growth will set the stage for solid gains in the first half of 2013, but may also prove to be the trigger for a depressing back half of the year.
Mix that with an expected withdrawal of aggressive monetary easing from central banks, and investors should brace for both a boom and bust in the commodity markets in the year ahead.
“Overall, we recommend clients on the consumer side to hedge [first half] commodities exposure early in the year, but potentially leave some exposure open for [second half] to benefit from the stabilization or even price declines,” the Danske Bank analysts said.
…
Outside the Box Archives
Jan. 27, 2013, 9:02 p.m. EST
Land Down Under faces Europe-style downturn
Commentary: Australia’s commodities boom nears a bitter end
By Satyajit Das
SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Australian equities, especially commodity producers and banks, high-yielding bonds and appreciating Australian dollar (A$) all made the country an attractive destination for investors.
But Australia’s economic outlook is deteriorating. The commodity boom, predicted to go on forever, is slowing sharply.
…
A stunning surprise!
Nobody could have seen it coming!
It was completely…
…UNEXPECTED!
What is the definition of “underwater?” Yesterday p-bear posted Tim Geithner’s house near NYC:
Dec 2004: Sold for $1,601,700
Jan 2013: Zestimate $1,597,664
According to p-bear: “My definition is related to capital gain or loss; so far he is sitting on an unrealized loss, and it is most likely larger than what the Zestimate indicates.”
In every news article I read, underwater was when the mortgage was higher than the value of the house. If Tim Geither put even 0.32% money down, then his mortgage is at least equal to the value of the house. If Tim has to sell, he’ll lose money on fees. Fine. Then say he’ll lose money in fees. Please do not say he is “underwater.” Even then it’s dicey as to whether he would “lose” money by buying. How much would have paid in rent from 2005-2009?
Your situation is a prime example of the defintion of “underwater”. You couldn’t sell for what you and your lender have in it.
I find it interesting that sometimes the lender doesnt even want it.
Please do not say he is “underwater.”
Yes, I had the same problem (with the same poster!) about the oft-repeated lie that the boomers outnumber all following age cohorts.
People get swept up in their beliefs, and when they find what they think is a ‘gotcha’, they go with it even if it has been shown to be untrue. “It feels so right, it can’t be wrong…”
But like I said, misinformation implies a weak argument, so I don’t see the long-term value in using it.
Because boomers do out number subsequent cohorts by huge margins.
Because boomers do out number subsequent cohorts by huge margins.
So you’re also in the school of ‘keep repeating the lie and it will become true’?
Do I really have to provide the wikipedia quotes and links again? They’re in the last weekend topics posts. There are more Gen Yers alone than boomers, and if you add in the Gen Xers and Zers, there are many more people in the following generations, as are in the baby boom gen.
They may be in worse financial shape, but there are more of them. The rational should put that canard to rest. (I’m sure you won’t.)
This discussion is getting tiresome.
You’re wrong again Alpo/Oxy.
And worse yet, the population growth falls to new record lows with each passing year.
Nice try though.
This discussion is getting tiresome.
+1
The fact remains that the 20 year cohort following the 20 year baby boom cohort is 20% SMALLER. That’s alot of excess empty houses stacked ontop of the massive excess empty housing inventory we already have.
The fact remains that the 20 year cohort following the 20 year baby boom cohort is 20% SMALLER.
Yes, and they are known as Gen X. They are then followed by the “echo-boomers” aka Gen Y. Who alone outnumber the baby boomers, even before you add in Gen X and Z.
Ahhh… now we’re getting somewhere with your misrepresentations.
Your lies are dead in the water Alpo/Oxy.
So we’ve established that your earlier statement is a lie:
boomers do out number subsequent cohorts by huge margins.
Wrong again. Clearly you’re lying about the boomer demographic. Boomer demographic outn numbers all subsequent demographic cohorts.
YOU are misrepresenting it. You’re an established liar.
Sorry Pimp, but X and Y gen FAR outnumber the boomers.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/emilylambert/2011/11/16/generation-x-time-to-reboot/2/
WRONG again.
And you’re combining cohorts 20 years apart. Now I’ve been fairly light handed with you but we can start your schooling too.
School?
School your own qutoe: “…all subsequent demographic cohorts.”
Gen X and Y far outnumber the boomers.
Period.
You combined cohorts.
You’re disigenuous.
Period.
Did you catch my protracted series of posts in yesterday’s Bits Buckets about the many non-gender-related reasons to not elect HC in 2016?
I apologize for going off topic, but felt your liberal Democrat political strawman called for some clarification.
I’ve heard enough of your posts about Hillary to know that you hate her to a degree that is out of proportion to whatever you think she is guilty of. You seem to hate her with the same irrational intensity that many hate Obama.
Such irrationally intense hatreds are usually caused by something within the hater, not the hated.
Such irrationally intense hatreds are usually caused by something within the hater, not the hated.
Hence the enormous, continuing popularity of the Drudge Report
usually caused by something within the hater, not the hated ??
Exactly….
When I worked in the bike shop, the boss loved to tell the story of a former employee. Guy hated Hillary with a purple passion.
Any-hoo, Bob the Boss was fond of starting conversations that went like this:
“Well, Jim, I was reading the Star this morning, and it mentioned that Hillary said…”
Employee Jim would go off like a rocket.
Which made Bob all the more motivated to try that “Hillary in the paper” conversation starter again. And again.]
Employee Jim took the bait every time. He never realized that Bob was trying to provoke him.
I have a coworker like that. In his case, he hates Boulder, CO, and with a real passion too.
I haven’t found that many who profess to hate Boulder who have actually spent much time there. Generally they hate what it represents…like it’s a local version of San Francisco or something. So that makes me figures SF is probably pretty nice, too :-).
Boulder is not gay enough to be a local San Francisco.
We love the Flatirons, Eldorado Canyon, the Boulder County Open Space park system, and the fact that it is one of (if not the) fittest places in the country.
Our objections to Boulder are its overpriced rents and real estate, and some of the attitudes of its residents, specifically the crunchy, COEXIST, hippie-dippie mindset.
So that makes me figures SF is probably pretty nice, too :-).
IIRC, San Francisco gets about 16 million visitors per year. Yeah, there are some gritty, urban neighborhoods, but overall this is one of the most beautiful cities I’ve ever been to.
Venice, Italy and Paris are two other cities that come close, aesthetically.
overall this is one of the most beautiful cities and therefore would-be residents ought to pay any price, bear any burden, and never complain about it.
“Venice, Italy and Paris are two other cities that come close, aesthetically.”
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Now this whopper belongs in the top delusions of all time.
nd therefore would-be residents ought to pay any price, bear any burden, and never complain about it.
They can always move to flyover.
We’re not questioning the aesthetics of living in San Francisco, just its unsustainable bubble economy. If the teachers there are nearly priced out now, where will the busboys and McDonalds workers live? Or will they just deal with 3 hour BART commutes to shuttle in to their McJobs?
“where will the busboys and McDonalds workers live?”
In their mother’s basement. (Why is it never their father’s basement?)
The commonly used definition of “underwater,” which is a loan-to-value ratio in excess of 100%, appeals to Realtors™ and the how-much-a-month crowd alike, as it provides an indication of a home owner’s ability to sell without bringing money to the closing table.
I submit that my alternative definition, based on the current market value of a home versus what the buyer paid for it, may be more meaningful to real estate investors and to owners who think about net worth implications of real estate ownership. Clearly you would not consider someone who made a 20% downpayment, only to sell a couple of years later at a price that barely pays off the loan, to be ‘above water’ in terms of investment gains.
ISTR reading that Tim was trying to sell his house for way more than the market would bear. He was unsuccessful.
So, he decided to rent it out while he was down in DC. Wonder how that worked out for him.
Did he get the Tenants From Hades? Or people who were chronically late on the rent and calling him whenever the lightbulbs burned out?
This bit of news might be relevant to Geithner’s future housing plans. Could the Big House be in his future? Story:
Richmond Fed prez nails Geithner for insider trading, media ignores story
Caixin Online
Business & Industry
Top Stories Industry
COSCO Says It Expects to Post Losses in 2012
01.28.2013 18:03
Second year of red ink could mean Shanghai bourse slaps shipper’s stock with ’special treatment’ tag
By staff reporters Liu Ran and Wu Jing
(Beijing) – China COSCO Holdings Co. Ltd. said on January 25 that it expected to lose money in 2012, but it did not reveal the exact figure.
The announcement could mean the biggest state-owned shipping firm in China will become the largest A-share company ever to receive the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s (SSE) “special treatment” tag, which warns investors it is risky.
This would be the second straight year that COSCO reported a loss. In 2011, it lost 10.4 billion yuan. The company reported losses of 6.4 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2012.
If a company reports two straight years of losses, the SSE will designate its shares “special treatment” and remind investors to be aware of risks. If COSCO records another loss in 2013, it will be delisted from the stock market temporarily. If the streak reaches four years, the company will be formally delisted.
COSCO attributed its 2012 losses to weak demand, low shipping prices and rising costs.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a barometer for dry bulk shipping, fell 40.6 percent in 2012 from a year earlier, indicating weakened global demand, COSCO said.
The market’s prospects will not be worse in 2013 than they were in 2012, company said.
…
If the sheep keep listening to the experts about stocks are they destined to keep losing their retirement and savings?
“The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a barometer for dry bulk shipping, fell 40.6 percent in 2012 from a year earlier”
Whew! That is a HUGE drop. It’s gotten your attention, why not others?
From Wiki: “Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index provides “an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. ”
If shipping is so cheap, then why are companies bringing jobs back to the USA? Wouldn’t this encourage more jobs to go overseas?
Is there a similar index to measure business data? Like, how many tera(?)bytes of customer service calls, tax returns, software code, digital mammogram reading, and so on travels from India to the US. That would be cool.
“If shipping is so cheap, then why are companies bringing jobs back to the USA? Wouldn’t this encourage more jobs to go overseas? ”
It may be that only commodities (dry bulk)are cheap to ship. As also explained in the wiki, there is a glut of the type of ships that do this. From what little I’ve heard, the rates for ships that carry appliances and jeans don’t run so cheap right now.
fell 40.6 percent in 2012 from a year earlier, indicating weakened global demand, COSCO said ??
And yet the stock market is up-up-and-away….So, is it something as simple as that we are the safest haven ?? Is the foreign money just pouring into anything & everything that is the USA ??
If so, why so much fear ??? Is there a black-swan on the other side of the mountain thats coming ??
Filed under: food stamps are bankrupting this country
“Reduced spending for entitlement programs such as Medicare and food stamps is needed to eliminate deficits within 10 years, said U.S. House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan.”
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-27/ryan-says-balanced-budget-needs-spending-cuts-not-more-revenue.html
“The drastic $85 billion in automatic spending cuts Congress approved in hopes of heading off another deficit showdown may or may not occur, but federal agencies say the threat has been disrupting government for months as officials take costly and inefficient steps to prepare.
A National Weather Service official is planning to shut down radars on sunny days in the South — and crossing his fingers that no unexpected storms pass through. New federal grants for medical research are being postponed, resulting in layoffs now and costly paperwork later. And military leaders, who are delaying training for active and reserve forces, are trying to negotiate millions of dollars of penalties that the Defense Department is incurring from cancelled contracts.
This is what happens when the federal government prepares for something Congress never intended to become a reality. If Democrats and Republicans cannot end their deficit standoff by March 1, the cuts will kick in across the country. Sequestration, as the law is known, has sent agencies scrambling to buffer themselves, spending time and money that ultimately may be for naught.”
http://m.washingtonpost.com/politics/threat-of-automatic-cuts-costly-to-federal-agencies/2013/01/27/ff63fb84-5f33-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_story.html
You can try to reduce the amount spent per person on Medicare if you like, but with a large generation of people turning 65, actually spending less in total would require more cuts than the American people are ever likely to accept.
There comes a time when people have no choice but to cut. When you are broke you are broke. Cuts wil come and people can blame capitalism, I blame crony capitalism but at least we do not have a Stalin type form of communism.
North Korea may make great videos about the evils of capitalism but there is not a country in the world that so fails to provide for its own citizens, at least the African countries admit famine and solicit famine aid:
http://news.yahoo.com/north-koreans-reportedly-turn-cannibalism-due-hidden-famine-122128957.html
The most efficient solution to this is Soylent Green.
Read below, North Korea has essentially implemented that solution.
Sorry it still has not posted but you can find a story the famine in N. Korea on all the major sites.
Is alpha-sloth a Democrat party hack?
Check out his lame response in yesterday’s Bits Buckets to my many reasons beyond the gender card to not elect HC in 2016.
Alpo/Oxy is the great misinformation specialist here.
Is alpha-sloth a Democrat party hack?
It depends on whatever personal definition of ‘hack’ you have, since we have already demonstrated today that you think words mean whatever you want them to mean, at the time you use them.
You are all a bunch of LOOSERS!
The following article details “Obama the Drone Warrior”, a policy which will continue under HRC or whoever the next R nominee is.
The only two elected officials who could have stood against this, Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich, are now out of Congress.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/01/28/how-man-kids-have-you-killed-today/
You’re beginning to sound a bit hysterical, prof. And yes, the sexism was egregious.
PS. Hillary isn’t going to run. For anything.
Jan. 28, 2013, 10:00 a.m. EST
Pending home sales fall in December
By Ruth Mantell
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Pending home sales fell 4.3% in December, with low inventory cutting results, according to data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors. The trade group’s pending-home-sales index declined to 101.7 in December from 106.3 in November. A reading of 100 equals the average level of contract activity in 2001, when NAR started tracking these data. “Supplies of homes costing less than $100,000 are tight in much of the country, especially in the West, so first-time buyers have fewer options,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “We expect a seasonal rise of inventory in the spring to help, but a seller’s market may be developing.” Despite the recent decline, pending sales were 6.9% higher than during December 2011. By region, December saw pending-home-sales declines of 8.2% in the West, 5.4% in the Northeast and 4.5% in the South. There was a gain of 0.9% in the Midwest. “Much of the West is already a seller’s market for homes priced under a million dollars, but conditions are much more balanced in the Northeast,” Yun said.
“Supplies of homes costing less than $100,000 are tight in much of the country”
But it’s not what you think it is. If it’s not priced under $100k, it’s not going to sell. You better get used to that fact.
FWIW, 200K seems to be the sweet spot in my neck of the woods. Go above that price point and sales quickly drop off. From what I’ve observed in metro Denver, the sweet spot is about 250K.
That was a great post (in yesterdays non-Bits Buckets thread), and one that I will have to examine in detail this evening.
I confess my comments on homes left vacant and rotting may be a bit of an exaggeration, though I have seen a number of comments here by Ben and others to suggest this does happen.
Regarding what Boomers say they will do versus what is likely to actually happen, most people don’t plan for health problems which render them unable to care for family-sized housing; it just hits them like a black swan.
It really doesn’t matter what they “intend” to do. The last stop is a hole in the ground for 75 MILLION people leaving 35 MILLION excess empty houses.
“people don’t plan for health problems which render them unable to care for family-sized housing; it just hits them like a black swan.”
I forget who posted it, but someone here on the HBB spoke about moving or re-modeling to live on the ground floor, in advance of
age-related mobility issues kicking in. Very wise.
someone here on the HBB spoke about moving or re-modeling to live on the ground floor, in advance of
age-related mobility issues kicking in. Very wise.
Thanks! I wasn’t the one who mentioned it, but I did it myself.
And I think it’s wiser and cheaper to buy a house already like this, rather than remodel one that isn’t.
The articles that I’ve read note that the percentage of those PLANNING to downsize is small, 10% or less, and that MOST of the downsizing activity results from either health issues, or the loss of a spouse.
Our house will be one that we likely downsize from, but has a bedroom on the ground floor, which will give us some minor flexibility. Admittedly, the benefit that this provided us was for aging relatives (in their late 70’s+) to have somewhere to stay when they visit, and not ourselves. We were thinking of the house a 20 to 30-year house, not necessarily a 40-year house.
Our house will be one that we likely downsize from, but has a bedroom on the ground floor ??
Ditto here…Our house is single story but just to big…So is our lot…scdave household in current discussions to build a new house that will more reflect our future needs…We just attended the International Builders show in Las Vegas searching for idea’s…
Google is your friend for home plans. No matter what your needs are, chances are that there is a house plan already available to meet them.
Google? Yeah… Like you bidding and estimating expertise. Right from google.
It’s a conundrum. McMansions have the huge bathrooms which can easily be converted to universal design, but it’s all on the second floor. Older ranch houses are generally one-level living, but they don’t waste a square foot, and it’s nearly impossible to remodel for full accessibility without giving up a major room.
it’s nearly impossible to remodel for full accessibility without giving up a major room.
How so? What would the remodel require that made you lose a room?
The ability to bring a wheelchair into the bathroom and transfer to the toilet. Wheel in shower. Think about what you do in a bathroom. Now think about doing it if you can’t walk and/or need someone to help you do it. A standard bathroom with 3 feet (or less) of clearance between the toilet and/or sink and the wall isn’t going to do it.
Alpha, how did you remodel for mobility without knowing about the 5-foot clear circle for wheelchairs? That’s like Day 1 of Universal Design. A standard bath is 5×8, likely with a 28-inch door. A universal design bath size is something like 9×11 with a 36″ door. It’s a no-go unless you give up a bedroom.
As for “finding a house that is already like this,” good luck, at least in the inner burbs.
Exactly right oxide….Wider hallways also…
Alpha, how did you remodel for mobility without knowing
I didn’t, I bought a house from the (estate of) a wheelchair-bound woman. All she had done is put a ramp up to the front door, but there is a very large downstairs bathroom (~10×15) that was apparently added on to the house in the 70s. It’s got plenty of room for a helper, although with a traditional tub, it’s probably not truly wheelchair accessible. I will probably change the tub into a walk/roll-in shower stall if I need to.
As for “finding a house that is already like this,” good luck, at least in the inner burbs.
I guess I lucked out since it wasn’t a requirement when I bought the place, it just happened to be that way, here in the inner burbs. It doesn’t have 36′-wide doors, so it may not be truly up to ‘code’, but a woman lived here for decades in a wheelchair. I think she had help, at least towards the end.
health problems which render them unable to care for family-sized housing; it just hits them like a black swan ??
Not so sure about the black-swan part but the message is correct…Maintenance of a house is expensive…Its even more expensive if you are not capable of doing somethings yourself a simple as cutting the lawn and raking leaves much less the more costly things from fixing the fence to painting the house…
I disagree. Once the reality of property tax increases to fund local govt and pensions, utility increases, and the risk of being unable to sell sink in, boomers will downsize in mass. Just like recent retirees with 60k in a 401k expect to continue their pre-retirement levels of consumption.
Once the reality of property tax increases to fund local govt and pensions, utility increases, and the risk of being unable to sell sink in, boomers will downsize in mass.
I have taken this into consideration. I could literally abandon my paid off house in NE OH and move out of state if conditions around here got that bad. it’s a cheap house. Assuming no continuing liability, the hit to my finances wouldn’t be that bad. My property tax has gone up about 400% in 33 years.
It seems like the houses will all go to the kids anyway…..that’s whats happening in the nabe i grew up in, my HS friends their wives kids moved back home and then when the parents died or moved to a nursing home they stayed in the paid off house….and a lot of them had really good jobs just a few years ago…. so now hey can both work a lucky ducky job for a very long time….The schools are walking distance and a decent quality education today. So why buy anywhere else?
I could literally abandon my paid off house
Things are hot in Bend, builders are snapping up the lots:
http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2013/01/developers_snap_up_bend_reside.html#incart_river
Apparently their losses from 2006-2012 weren’t large enough.
Nope their losses were big, and the Feds wrote them a check for cash money for their losses (tax refunds on gains during the bubble), which they are now using to re-enter the big casino.
Interesting read…Thanks for the post….Not surprising though…The vultures are always out there…They have what most people don’t…Deep pockets…
“Miller and Crowell formed Long Term Bend Investors LLC in July 2009 and spent more than $6 million to buy nearly 400 home lots in seven Bend subdivisions, many out of foreclosure, according to county records.”
Gotta love that “Long Term” title action. When the sales curve starts to flatten these scalpers will sell to some public pension fund and skip off like Fred Astaire.
Filed under: take this sh*t sandwich and eat it
“A bipartisan group of senators has agreed on a set of principles for a sweeping overhaul of the immigration system, including a pathway to American citizenship for 11 million illegal immigrants that would hinge on progress in securing the borders and ensuring that foreigners leave the country when their visas expire.”
(Correction: a bipartisan war on wages for U.S. citizen working poor)
“Under the senators’ plan, most illegal immigrants would be able to apply to become permanent residents — a crucial first step toward citizenship — but only after certain border enforcement measures had been accomplished.”
And here’s the money quote, from Sen. Robert Menendez, D-NJ:
“First of all, Americans support it, in poll after poll,” said Mr. Menendez, who was interviewed along with Mr. McCain by Martha Raddatz on Sunday. “Secondly, Latino voters expect it. Thirdly, Democrats want it. And fourth, Republicans need it.”
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/01/28/us/politics/senators-agree-on-blueprint-for-immigration.xml
“First of all, Americans support it, in poll after poll,” said Mr. Menendez, who was interviewed along with Mr. McCain by Martha Raddatz on Sunday. “Secondly, Latino voters expect it. Thirdly, Democrats want it. And fourth, Republicans need it.”
This, from the Senator who employed an illegal immigrant sex offender aide in his office.
Menendez is an aromatic piece of feces.
Let’s not forget the coastal elitist, media/academia, Race Hustlers Industrial Complex’s role in this either.
Any one who vocally opposes the Mexican criminal invasion of the USA is a Racist®, a word so overused it has lost all its meaning.
Don’t want to live in a neighborhood with 20 people living in 3BR houses with 6 vehicles parked on the front lawn?
You’re a Racist®.
Don’t want to be a victim of a DUI hit-skip and have the driver escape back to Mexico without prosecution?
You’re a Racist®.
Don’t want to press 1 for English?
You’re a Racist®.
All the COEXIST stickers in the world do not make American citizens want to let their country turn into Mexico.
Asian Immigration To California Has Surpassed Latin-American Immigration
So much for the meme that productive people are leaving California and only moochers are moving in.
Ah, yes! Validating criminal activity.
The entire Government suffers from a legitimacy deficit.
“Validating criminal activity.”
It’s a reflection of who they are, a bunch of corrupt perverts. Like attracts like.
Lindsay Graham = filth
John McCain = filth
Marco Rubio = filth
Menendez = filth
Filth attracts filth
Excuse me, I meant to say, filth rewards filth.
If I told you the “antics” of the illegal immigrant group in these parts, no one would believe it. Sex trafficking for the “migrant” workers is big biz. So what if some of the girls are mentall challenged.
The PTB want open borders and it does not matter what the people want. Anyone that objects to creating even more competition for jobs will be demonized as a racist etc.
Nobody validated the criminal activity more than the private sector business owners who employed undocumented workers for wages which were under market and under the table.
Chicken or the Egg?
How did the illegals get there to be employed?
Which administration gave out amnesty?
Which administration didn’t much care for open or closed borders as long as the mortage money was flowing?
And employment is first, not open borders. We know that from a few years ago. When construction jobs dried up, not only did workers not cross the border, they went back to the home country.
Administration? Oh I get it; you’re making this a partisan politics debate.
“you’re making this a partisan politics debate.”
Well, they’re trying. Sigh. Some people just can’t LET. IT. GO.
Every fiber of their being is so heavily invested in partisan politics, it’s driving them around the bend, lol. Because their old game is crumbling to bits around them and they haven’t found a new one to play. Cold Warriors.
I imagine this happened in Rome as well.
Gaius: Well, the aqueducts are out again.
Pontus: Yes, well, the Partricians wouldn’t vote the money for infrastructure, nyah, nyah, nyah.
How did the illegals get there to be employed?
This question sounded political — about open borders and employment policy and such — which is why I answered politically. Otherwise, I don’t know what you’re asking. Could you clarify?
It’s not about who caused the problem to begin with. It isn’t assigning blame. Both sides of the sh-tty, disgusting, slippery coin have a hand in how immigration got to the point it is at today.
It is about fixing the problem. Instead of doing this, the Government (again, as in both sides of the sh-tty, disgusting coin)came together to agree to do the opposite of fixing the problem.
Government Legitimacy = 0
Then those business owners should be prosecuted, fined and jailed.
It’s that simple.
Stop blaming PRIVATE SECTOR when the GOVERNMENT won’t enforce the laws.
Whenever there is LAWLESSNESS, expect people to ignore the laws.
They are meaningless.
IT is NOT private sector. It is LACK of enforcement.
The first time a company executive goes to PRISON for knowingly hiring illegal aliens, see just how fast everybody suddenly gets LEGAL>
But the meme is that business is perfectly able to police itself and that enforcement is not needed.
the meme is that business is perfectly able to police itself and that enforcement is not needed.
A vampire meme that refuses to die
And fourth, Republicans need it.
Bad news for the anti-illegal-immigration Right. The Repubs have decided that the best way for them to ‘rebrand’ is to go soft on illegals (and stop talking about rape).
yep…
“The Repubs have decided that the best way for them to ‘rebrand’ is to go soft on illegals”
The only bright spot in the whole thing is the death of the Republican party. It was hijacked by neocons anyway, so who cares?
Obama is a neocon as well.
I never would have guessed that progressives would someday link up with neocons. But that’s what has happened.
Neocons have officially run the Republican Party since 1988 when Bush Sr. arrived at 1600 Pennsylvania.
Neocons (or Progressives - whatever you want to call them) have officially run the Democrat Party since 2008 with Obama’s victory, but would have done so in 2000 had Gore won.
Folks here seem to forget the animosity Bush Sr. had for Reagan. Why did Bush Sr. dislike Reagan so much?
Incidentally, why did the Democrats toss Joe Leiberman out?
People need to face facts: your culture war fascination has led to a most undesirable end result:
Obama = Bush.
Progressives = Neocons.
Oh - and lest ye forget: Government = Housing. If what is happening in the housing market makes little sense, work from that starting point always.
Hey, I agree with you. You’re preaching to the choir here.
“(and stop talking about rape).”
You know, that’s kind of like telling someone not to think of the color red. In fact, they keep talking about the senators as the “Gang of 8″. I call it the “Gang Rape by 8″.
MacBeth, please stop making so much sense, you’ll confuse the
votersvegetables.We disagree with the coastal elitist, limosuine liberal, opinion makers who are responsible for 90% of the content in corporate media, and their Pavlovian viewers and readers.
As we disagree with the Earth is only 6,000 years old, legitimate rape, destroy the world to save Israel so we can hasten the Rapture, “family values” constituency.
But the above are the only two options on the ballot.
Ralph Nader, Dennis Kucinich, and Ron Paul are the only candidates we “believe” in that we’ve ever voted for. Why even bother voting anymore?
best way for them to ‘rebrand’ is to go soft on illegals
And there in lies the problem with the war party. Why would you agree to future voters for the a$$ party? Do they honestly believe that the Hispanic grievances will stop once they become legal?
Stealing from spook……{shaking my head}
Here’s a heart-warming story for the “our differences only make us stronger” propagandists. Maybe they just need more Diversity Training and COEXIST stickers.
Attack on family in Compton latest incident in wave of anti-black violence:
http://touch.latimes.com/#story/la-me-0126-compton-20130126/
“Attack on family in Compton latest incident in wave of anti-black violence:”
Can’t access the link, but SSDD. There are a number of anti-illegal immigrantion “activists” who like to point out the anti-black crimes by illegal immigrants and other members of the Hispanic “community”. They pretend to get their panties all in a bunch about it, but most of the time it’s pretty much phony. All of a sudden you’ve got these folks caring what happens to blacks at the hands of Hispanics? Nah. It’s just weak a ploy to maybe rally blacks to the side of immigration restrictionism.
Not buying it. Nobody gave a shat about the drug cartels who supply the drugs and guns to heavily black urban areas. Nobody gave a shat about the Koreans, Muslims and Indians who operate the high priced convenience stores in those areas that take the residents for everything they’ve got.
And, if anything, there’s probably people who hope that maybe the Hispanics will be successful in their endeavors.
The Hispanics watched and learned from the “civil rights” movements and affirmative action and all the goodies that were granted to blacks in the US, adopting and refining the language, tactics, etc.
And don’t think that any black with half a brain cell to his name doesn’t understand this.
Well apparently the entire party has not sold out:
http://www.wtvy.com/home/headlines/Sessions-Comprehensive-Reform-Wont-Pass-As-Long-As-Admin-Defies-Existing-Immigration-Law-188735161.html
They’re having a hard time not talking about rape, apparently.
Gangs and Rape +8.
These are nothing but a bunch of decadent clapped-out guys who can’t get it up anymore (if they ever could), and have to live vicariously watching it happen to others. That’s pretty much what the Senate is reduced to. They make the twisted Roman Senate of old look like a bunch of Bravehearts.
You are on a roll with the vocabulary lately. The post last week about pedophile priests “warming their wieners” was a real gem too
The Gangbanger 8 is about the sickest bunch of f*cks ever. Think I’m exaggerating their proclivities? Look at them, every last one of them. That is some seriously twisted stuff. Eh, well, it’s what happens when empires go into the crapper. The sh*t floats to the top.
LOL, each and every one of these turds envisions himself in faux paramilitary gear (like Shrub), with reflective aviator sunglasses, a cap with a gleaming black visor, standing on a balcony declaiming to the masses.
envisions himself in faux paramilitary gear
No one out-dressed Qadaffy. Legend has it that he once shot an Ottoman sofa and dressed up in its pelt.
“Legend has it that he once shot an Ottoman sofa and dressed up in its pelt.”
Oh, jeebus, tresho, you SO owe me a new keyboard, spat my drink all over it. R.O.T.F.L.M.A.O. Swear to jeebus, I laughed so hard I had to change my shorts. I dunno who y’are, but you made my day.
“Do not buy housing now. If you do you will lose a lot of money from which you will never recover financially.”
Filed under: welcome to the recoveryless recovery
USA Today - Nearly half are overqualified for their jobs:
“Nearly half of working Americans with college degrees are in jobs for which they’re overqualified, a new study out Monday suggests.
The study, released by the non-profit Center for College Affordability and Productivity, says the trend is likely to continue for newly minted college graduates over the next decade.
“It is almost the new normal,” says lead author Richard Vedder, an Ohio University economist and founder of the center, based in Washington”
http://m.usatoday.com/article/news/1868817
This is what “the future belongs to Lucky Ducky” means. The underemployed who are paying back $1+ trillion of student loans will not be creating “pent-up demand” for anything.
The squad reiterates its correct prediction that within a few decades, less than 15% of Americans will enjoy what could be considered a middle class lifestyle.
It’s gonna get worse, and then it’s gonna get more worse
“Nearly half of working Americans with college degrees are in jobs for which they’re overqualified, a new study out Monday suggests.”
Lol, remember the meme “They won’t hire me because I’m overqualified”?
They found out the “qualified” really weren’t, so they started hiring the “overqualified”, lol.
If you dumbdown the requirements for a college degree enough then it is really getting a high school degree. In fact, if you look at what someone in the early 1900’s had to know to get a high school degree, you will see that most college degree holders today would not even have received a high school degree then.
It has little to do with class material. Companies know that a college grad has at least some maturity, a few people skills, and student loan debt to keep them quiet.
Ehh, mebbe. But I always thought the “overqualified” thing was supposed to be a flattering way of rejecting an applicant you don’t like anyway.
Anyway, I think it’s stupid for an applicant to put all their credentials on a resume when applying for a SBux job. It’s not like it’s hard to edit resumes these days.
Exactly.
And what happened to the merely “qualified”?
http://danielamerman.com/articles/2012/WorkC.html
Nice post Carl…Thanks…
It is not yet as pronounced as it is going to be, but to me the most telling statistic is the increase in labor force participation is in the 65+ age group.
The oldest boomers are just entering this group. We boomers see that pensions have been reduced in bankruptcies, 401Ks can be risky, savings pay peanuts in interest, and SS may be inflated away. Work is not a sure thing, but it is easier to hang onto a job than to try to re-enter the workforce after you have been out of it for a while.
“Filed under: welcome to the recoveryless recovery”
…Part 3
But the last 3 recessions have been exactly the same.
This ain’t my first rodeo.
This relfects some statistics that I post here a couple of times each year. If you look at the American workforce, about 30% have a bachelor’s degree. However, if you look at the jobs in the economy, only about 20% require a degree. So the headline for that article could be changed to “America sends far too many of its young people to college and has been doing so for decades.”
I could probably rent out my unfinished basement and cover my entire monthly P&I.
Startup dreams meet pop-up rentals
Daniel Marienthal, 23, lives in a Twin Peaks mansion with 11 other men, where privacy is so scarce that for a few months he lived in a canvas tepee he had built.
Josh Furnas, 23, has taken up residence in a converted closet, near the living room, in a Bayview apartment that he shares with an Ecuadoran family of seven.
Dan Stifler, 24, wakes up - under two faucets - in a Mission District laundry room.
This is the reality of pop-up housing in San Francisco, where young entrepreneurs, drawn to the promise of startup riches yet finding few affordable housing options, are inventing homes of their own - often in violation of zoning codes.
The situations are frequently absurd, but increasingly common: A posting on Craigslist recently offered the top bunk in a 23-by-9-foot room in the Marina for $600 a month (for the bed’s sake, there was a 150-pound weight limit). And while some landlords are kept in the dark about the extra occupants, others have seized on the income opportunity and divvy up their living rooms.
“During the Gold Rush, young men, even those from the better classes, thought nothing of coming to San Francisco and living in very uncomfortable positions, in bunkhouses and shanties. What we are seeing today rings similar,” said San Francisco State historian Philip Dreyfus. “In San Francisco, the booms are so remarkable and dramatic, the busts so extreme. We’ve gotten used to it. But it is unique. Nowhere else has anything like this.
An economy based on facebook likes, twitter tweets, and farmville crops will sustain rent and price increases to infinity.
I love this!
At least Austin has state government and the university to keep inflating its bubble. What does San Francisco have other than its weather and hippie-dippie free love to pump up its bubble?
There are several major universities in the Bay Area. Stanford and UC Berkeley come to mind. It also has Silicon Valley, which contrary to the derision presented here, has companies that actually create real products beyond Facebook and Twitter.
What does San Francisco have other than its weather and hippie-dippie free love to pump up its bubble?
7 (miles) X 7 surrounded by ocean and bay and NIMBY’s who block the building of more housing.
For the past two decades, San Francisco has only averaged 1,500 to 2,000 new units of housing per year. Last year, only 269 new units went onto the market.
“What does San Francisco have other than its weather and hippie-dippie free love to pump up its bubble?”
Oakland.
One of the best harbors on the planet.
As long as the VC funds and Angel investors are there looking to invest millions in the next Google, Facebook, Twitter, Zynga, etc., so to will the entrepreneurs.
Speaking of rent increases, news from the nation’s fourth largest city.
http://app1.kuhf.org/articles/1359326488-New-Apartment-Construction-Brings-No-Relief-On-Rents.html
I’m feeling this myself as my rent just increased 15%.
Wow, great article. It echoes the discussions that HBB has about rents.
“She and her boyfriend have been looking for a new place for more than a year.” <— shacking up means they can pay a higher rent.
“Tens of thousands of new residents are pouring into Houston each year, drawn by the city’s blistering job market. ” <— so shacking up does not leave other apartments empty.
“You’ve got a lot of people willing to pay high rents, which is a goldmine for apartment developers, and they’re going to go straight for the Class A’s.” <— Class A are the shiny new apartments with yuppie amenities. But he’s not mentioning the real reason to go for new Class A: The Section 8’s haven’t found and ruined these places yet.
“That’s leading many owners to demolish older, more affordable rental properties to make way for Class A structures. ” <— So they aren’t really adding to supply. And getting rid of the low-rent places just makes it easier to charge high rents for the Class A’s.
“Marquez says she’s looking in other neighborhoods. But she’s finding the rents are just as high and the inventory just as low. ” <— Commutes will be even longer.
Very interesting article on Houston rentals. So I went from the article to har.com looking at the Montrose area 77006 and 77098. The asking prices for multi-family older buildings were through the roof, approx $100k per unit. So could the rents justify this? Maybe not. I even saw a building I used to know very well renting 1 bedrooms for $695 now. Ten years ago the rent was $450-500 plus electric, free laundry and cable. No improvements in the pictures. I used to call them popcorn tenants because they would never renew their 6 month leases. Probably because the window a/c units had a hard time cooling the bedrooms. The air had to make a u-turn from the living room into the bedroom.
“n economy based on facebook likes, twitter tweets, and farmville crops will sustain rent and price increases to infinity.”
It will if you are part of the right club.
I suggest you do so quickly to cover your growing losses.
What are they up to now? 150k loss? 200k?
I posted this yesterday, but got no responses (perhaps too late), so I thought I’d toss it out to rile things up a bit this morning on the demographic debate.
CIBT, to put some numbers behind the analysis (from the 2010 Census):
Population by age group (http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0007.pdf):
Under 5: 20.2 million
5-9: 20.35 million
10-14: 20.7 million
15-19: 22.0
20-24: 21.6
25-29: 21.1
30-34: 19.96 (I didn’t want to put 20.0, for fear of someone saying I was inflating numbers)
35-39: 20.2
40-44: 20.9
45-49: 22.7
50-54: 22.3
55-59: 19.7
60-64: 16.8
65-74 (10 year grouping): 21.7
75-84 (10 year grouping): 13.1
85+: 5.5
So, at the peak of the baby boom, we have approximately 22.5 million per 5 year age cohort (45-49 and 50-54). That peak won’t start retiring in large numbers until approximately 2020 (when these peaks will be 55-59 and 60-64). We never reach this size cohort in the Millennials. But we are damn close at 22.0 and 21.6 in the 15-24 year olds (who will be 25-34 years old when that cohort of boomers begin to retire).
But that isn’t the point I want you to think about. In the near/medium term (next 5-15 years), what matters is how many homes will the boomers be dumping on the market in favor of downsizing/moving to assisted living, etc. to REALLY impact the market.
It is tempting to point to the low ownership rate of those in the young age cohorts at, say 20%, and say that you only need 15-20% of boomers to decide to downsize, etc. before your run into problems with them swamping the market.
However, as each of the other cohorts also age, so does their propensity for home ownership (higher ownership rate for 35-39 years old than 30-34 years old–you can’t ignore more of each cohort looking to buy as time passes). Since it is pretty common for the 5-year age cohorts to be approximately 20 million, what you would be worried about is if of the 22 million boomers, more than 20 million of them decided to downsize/move to assisted living/pass on, to see if it would impact move-up homes, etc.
However, what you see in the near term is that well less than 25% of boomers intend to downside upon retirement (I saw a number quoted as 10%). This number needs to be well in excess of 50% to be all that concerned in the near- to medium-term.
There will be a shift in housing needs (more assisted living than previously, more retirement communities, etc.), but it will be a shift over time in terms of new development, not a wholesale moving out of existing homes leaving them vacant and rotting.
By the way, an additional thought:
What we are talking about is an excess of people to the tune of approximately 5 million in the most swollen of the Boomer cohort.
If you assume approximately 1.5 people per house average across ALL age spectrums, this is a bubble of approximately 3.3MM excess homes that need to be absorbed over time…let’s say a short time period, 10 years, or 330k homes per year.
However, with population momentum, we are overall growing until 2050 at least, so we still need to be building lots of homes…so AT WORST, the absorption of this excess will cause a reduction in the homes that need to be built vs. a world where this bubble didn’t exist.
So, we go from needing to build 1.5MM homes per year to 1.2MM homes per year.
Yawn.
“However, with population momentum, we are overall growing until 2050 at least, so we still need to be building lots of homes…”
The current preference for policies to protect the wealth of older folks while throwing the young under the bus will have long-term negative repercussions for the future U.S. workforce, homeowner population and housing demand.
Depends outselling Pampers a sure sign of collapse
Jan. 28, 2013 by Chris Bennett in Farm Press Blog
Birthrates are tied directly to a nation’s destiny. The United States, with a birthrate that hovers around 2.0, is one of the few developed countries maintaining its population, but there is no guarantee that the U.S. rate might not fall in coming years.
When your country wears more Depends than Pampers, economic disaster is soon to follow. In 2012, adult diapers outsold baby diapers in Japan. The statistic is an unnatural stunner and points to a population chart that has literally been flipped: In 30 years time, Japan will have three people over 65 for every one person under 15.
Japan’s situation is not unique. Diapers aside, many Western countries are racing down the same path toward shrinking populations.
Western Europe’s birth rate averages 1.5 and the endgame is clear: An increasing number of retirees must be maintained with labor generated by a decreasing number of workers. Take economically ravaged Greece as an example, a birthrate of 1.4 results in 100 grandparents for every 42 grandkids — a recipe for extinction. As Mark Steyn writes in the OC Register, “The family tree is upside down.”
Europe is already swimming in panic and reacting by offering major childbirth incentives: cash perks for each baby, major tax breaks, transport breaks, subsidized childcare, and lengthy maternity leaves combined with income maintenance. But when the fertility rate of the under-40 crowd has been on a sustained crash for decades — it’s too late to do anything.
The United States, with a birthrate that hovers around 2.0, is one of the few developed countries maintaining its population, but there is no guarantee that the U.S. rate won’t fall in coming years.
The U.S. is squeezed by a demographic gamble. Social Security, welfare, healthcare, and a litany of other government programs are set up with the birthrate assumption that there will always be a consistent number of bricks to hold up the walls of the system. A system of massive debt and massive spending requires the masses to draw financial blood from. So what happens to a cradle-to-grave system if the birth rate falters? Ask Greece.
America should never take the stability of a constant birthrate for granted; it’s a crippling assumption that Europe and Japan have already bought into and there will be an economic day of reckoning for both. When roughly 25 percent of Western European women end childbearing years without conceiving, or when Germany, for example, embraces a 1.4 birthrate over a 40-year run — it’s demographic suicide.
…
We posted this last week.
Negative population growth is bad for capitalism, but the capitalist model of infinite growth within a finite ecosystem is the growth model of a cancer cell. Unfortunately, the humanoid species has not evolved (and will likely destroy the planet before it does) to a sustainable level of reproduction and resource consumption that could replace the doomed capitalist model.
We are not breeding more humanoids. And we’ll be dead within 50 years. So what happens after that is not of personal concern to us. Those of you who choose to be breeders, keep lying to your mini-humanoids that the future will be better, keep convincing yourself that you believe that lie, and that your decision to breed mini-humanoids was justifiable.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/01/25/natures-capital-is-the-limiting-resource/
The Japanese fertility rate has been consistently under 2.0 since 1975, and most recently has been at 1.4 (and has been at least that low since 1997).
It took until approximately 2010 for this to manifest itself as a shrinking population in Japan.
The difference in timing (roughly 30ish years) between the fertility rate falling below 2, and population starting to shrink is population momentum.
Given the US population momentum, we will have a growing population for decades at a minimum.
Give the “momentum”?
I hate to break it to you homey but population growth in the most recent census is the lowest in history.
Lower population growth still means there are more people each year. Population growth is not negative.
I’m sorry, but either you are a pathological liar, or you are really, really dense.
Not lower. LOWEST.
You’re lying to the readers here once again.
Lowest is still greater than 0 (ie. growing).
Lowest mean falling. (ie… it’s not growing)
“Lowest mean falling. (ie… it’s not growing)”
From my link above directly from the Census.
2000 population 281,425,000
2010 population 308,746,000
Last I checked, 308 million was greater than 281 million.
You are mistaking a decrease in the rate of growth with a decrease in population.
The rate of growth is slowing, the population is not shrinking.
Wrong again.
Most of the boomer cohort retired already. They drove the bubble and now they’ll continue to crush it. Furthermore, the boomer cohort outnumbers EVERY subsequent cohort. And they’ll continue to shed 35 million excess empty houses in additional to the existing excess supply of 20 million.
For the benefit of the reading public, we’ll continue to expose your false narrative.
“…Most of the boomer cohort retired already….”
Huh? This will come as a surprise to most of the Boomers (aged 55-70) that I know. In fact, I can only think of one (who retired from university this year but still maintains an active lecture schedule). Are we talking about the same Boomers, or are you just talking?
And NONE of them has any plans to sell their house. None.
MOST of them. Come to the northeast and everyone here retires at 52-55.
What does “selling their house” have to do with anything? Or do you mean to tell me they’re all immortal?
Not to mention that the biggest age cohort of boomers is currently 48-58. Relatively few people retire before they can get SS and Medicare.
Nonsense.
And cherry picking ages to get to a cohort that suits your misrepresentations is typical of you.
In 2010, the biggest 5-year age cohorts were reported as 45-49 and 50-54 by the US Census.
Let me correct my arithmetic adding three years…48-57 as the biggest 10-year cohort.
This is simply adding 3 years to what the census reported.
Of course you “added”. That’s what you do to distort the truth about housing.
Not to mention that the biggest age cohort of boomers is currently 48-58. Relatively few people retire before they can get SS and Medicare.
Represent!
I’m 55 and not about to retire. Reason #1: I’d be bored to tears, even if I had the funds for a life of leisure. Reason #2: Gotta keep on working to keep the funds coming in.
Boomer cohort is roughly ages 49-67, i.e. born between WWII and 1964.
“Of course you “added”. That’s what you do to distort the truth about housing.”
LOL
I added because the data was provided as of 2010. We are now in 2013.
Are you really asking me to do the math to show you how I got to 3 years?
People who were 45 in 2010 are 48 now in 2013…get it? People have birthdays and get older.
What % of the boomer cohort has actually retired? What % own their homes, what % rent, what % have a mortgage & what % are homeless?
And you cherry picked the years to make a cohort support your misrepresentations.
Do you really think we believe your constant stream of housing cheerleading?
Lots of questions, no time to do all the research right now.
One item that I have looked at though is homeownership rate…it seems to max out at approximately 80% as people get into their mid 70’s.
“And you cherry picked the years to make a cohort support your misrepresentations.”
LOL…again, I picked the LARGEST cohorts, and said so.
I picked the largest to make my point, that EVEN if you pick the two largest cohorts of the boomer generation, the excess of people over that decade is ONLY approximately 5MM people as compared to more typical decades.
If I wanted to cherry pick, I would have picked different cohorts, like those 55-64 (now 58-67), who, combined are SMALLER than current 10-year cohorts.
You really are dense.
“I’m 55 and not about to retire…I’d be bored to tears,”
Amen. I’m 47, same outlook. And every news report I’ve read about this suggests that people our age expect to delay retirement significantly out of necessity. I don’t know how this fits into RWatch and Pimp’s discussion, but retirement ages of the past should not be used as any kind of accepted number. Sure, many will be forced into retirement, but many more potential retirees will keep on keepin’ on. Might have a negative impact on job listings, but it also might ease the pressure on the SS fund for a bit.
I’m not sure the delayed retirement does much to impact my thinking on demographics on housing, as generally I see housing decisions as a stage of life thing. In other words, generally speaking, the older you get, the more likely you are to want to own. Also, the older you get, the MORE house you are likely to own (as your family grows), UNTIL you make a downsizing decision, either on purpose, or as the result of major life change (death of spouse, health decline).
I think the tendency to work longer is a long-term trend that shows up in the participation rates by age cohort…you see higher and higher percentage of people working in their 60’s, etc.
That said, there is still a big dropoff from participation rates when people are in their 50’s. SOME people are still retiring–
“The excess of people over that decade is ONLY approximately 5MM people as compared to more typical decades.”
You’re lying once again. The boomer cohort is 15 million LARGER than any other subsequent cohort.
Are you really that stupid to think we believe your distortions?
Forget the names that people give each generation, and simply look at the age cohorts…therein lies the reality of what we are dealing with…a couple of 5-year age cohorts that are 10% larger than the bulk of 5-year age cohorts that follow.
That’s it, the baby boom “problem” boiled down to the raw, mathematical reality.
Rental Watch,
Part of the reason that the 48 to 58 age group isn’t that much larger than the younger group is that they have already started dying of age related diseases like the early heart attacks and cancers. And the second half of the baby boom (the ones you are talking about) was smaller than the first half back when they were born, but, again, more of the older boomers have passed on, though at 58 to 68 they still have a ways to go before their peak dying years in their 70s and 80s.
Of course, if part of a group has already died, then their housing may have already been absorbed, but it is also possible (even likely) that the widows/widowers are still occupying the house that was previously occupied by a couple. Some may still have kids at home.
This stuff is way more complicated than just how many people who are of a certain age are still alive. Census should have stats about households as well as individuals since that is the way the data is collected.
Polly, look at the link, it shows what those age cohorts looked like 30 years ago as well:
The group that was 25-34 in 1980 was the 55-64 group in 2010…the “front edge of the baby boom”…it totaled 37,082 then, it totals 36,483 now. Some shrinkage, some immigration.
The group that was 15-24 in 1980 was the 45-54 group in 2010…the second wave…it totaled 42,487 then, it totals 45,007 now (plenty of immigration).
Where do you get the information that the front edge of the boom was larger than the part starting 10-years later?
You can see the pig moving right through the python in the link, and it clearly indicates that the pig is really later in the baby boom.
Peak births in the US happened in 1957: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/us-births-per-year.html
Hispanic Pregnancies Fall in U.S. as Women Choose Smaller Families
By SUSAN SAULNY
Published: December 31, 2012
ORLANDO, Fla. — Hispanic women in the United States, who have generally had the highest fertility rates in the country, are choosing to have fewer children. Both immigrant and native-born Latinas had steeper birthrate declines from 2007 to 2010 than other groups, including non-Hispanic whites, blacks and Asians, a drop some demographers and sociologists attribute to changes in the views of many Hispanic women about motherhood.
As a result, in 2011, the American birthrate hit a record low, with 63 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44, led by the decline in births to immigrant women. The national birthrate is now about half what it was during the baby boom years, when it peaked in 1957 at 122.7 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age.
…
FWIW, the Mexican birth rate is now down to two children per woman. And that is in Mexico, not the United States.
Wow, an actual analysis based on actual numbers. Love it. Thank you for posting!
You’re welcome.
Of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%.
The future belongs to Lucky Ducky. And when things feel like they’re getting worse, because they are getting worse, they call it a Recovery®.
The only thing being “recovered” for those outside the 1% are the standards of living from the 19th century. That’s what Restore Our Future really means.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/01/28/elite-optimism-amid-endless-crisis/
standards of living from the 19th century.
See the article about young people living in closets and renting bunk beds in San Francisco.
The flyover Lucky Ducks will have plenty of square footage to live in. They just won’t be able to afford to heat and cool their houses or buy gas to commute to their non-existent jobs once the 1% complete their economic rape of the USA.
There are going to be a lot of people in the top 1-2% that thought they were king who will find out that the top 0.1% have lumped them in with the masses as well.
And the decimal point division line will keep moving to the right until the blood flows, unfortunately. It seems they wouldn’t have it any other way.
Agreed. That is why I always talk about the .02%. If you are not invited to the Bildenberg conference, you are just cattle.
Bilderberg
It’s good to be the King!
It’s GOOD to be the Banksta!
This is really weird, I expect that we will soon hear about it in a in search of ancient astronauts program on the history channel:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/23/300-million-year-old-tooth-gear_n_2527424.html
You’re kidding, right? I can think of about a dozen explanations right off the top of my head, the most likely being that a piece of equipment broke off and was compressed into a piece of processed coal which was then “discovered” by some guy, somewhere, who figured he could make a fast buck selling his “finding” to a credible public. (Ahem.)
No scientific review, no corroborating evidence, no discussion of naturally-occuring bismuth or pyrite crystalization. Why am I not surprised you’ve latched onto this?
Hansen, I did not say I believed it proved anything, I just said it was weird and would be used by those that create the alien shows. There was too little information to suggest any explanation. If it was processed coal I do not know why anyone would even raise the issue but the Huffington post found it interesting enough to post as did I think the BBC where I first ran across it so you would think it is a bit more complicated then your explanation but who knows.
Actually, I think it was a mining magazine.
One thing’s for sure, it proves there’s no global warming!
Actually, Alpha there is a study out today from Norway cutting the projection of global warming even more and acknowledging that natural causes were underestimated. With every acknowledgment that they over estimated co2’s role in the warming between 1978-1998, they get closer to my estimate that only 1/7 of the warming during that period was caused by man. I did not raise that study today since I would rather just wait for the data than talk about predictions.
“Hansen, I did not say I believed it proved anything, I just said it was weird and would be used by those that create the alien shows.”
I know, right? I couldn’t even believe the vituperative response, either. It’s like they were carrying on an invented conversation in their head with someone else. Good Lord.
Nice parse, I’m impressed. Context is everything; I tend to take the long view….
So do I, 420,000 years of data and the fact that we are 1-3 C below the typical peak of interglacial periods. I hope we are that lucky before we go into a glacial period. I doubt the earth can support more than a billion people during such an event.
“Nice parse, I’m impressed. Context is everything; I tend to take the long view….”
Fair enough, but really, such unwarranted vituperation toward dan, my goodness.
Sarc off.
Well actually, palmy, I was talking to dan, who knows precisely what I’m referring to, but since you’ve chosen to enter the fray I’ll direct my response to you:
Dan has a long history of citing dubious sources with misleading headlines:
“300-Million-Year-Old Tooth Wheel Found In Russian Coal: Scientists”
In actuality “scientists” have said no such thing, nor have they verified the age of the sample or determined it’s a “tooth wheel”. Then he then proceeds to flog these articles as fact despite the glaring inconsistencies and obvious methodological flaws. This seemingly random post is no exception.
Now, the charitable among us might choose to think dan was just pointing out yet another sensationalist article in the popular press, employing the ambiguous modifier “weird” as a means of highlighting the silliness of human gullibility. But those of us who have actually read his links over the years have been conditioned to think he’s playing fast with with the facts again and presenting this as something foundational. (Else-wise, why bother? After all, he’s mentioned “ancient astronauts” on more than one previous occasion.)
So like Pimpster, who’s made it his mission to call out bs in the RE sector, I’ve settled my sites on dan’s venal manipulation of the pseudo science he peddles as fact. At best, he’s called “wolf” one time too many. At worst, he’s a liar. Hence what you call my “vituperation”, but which I prefer to refer to as scorn.
Cheers.
It is obvious proof of time travel.
It’s becoming really obvious around here that contractors are scared about the upcoming budget issues. Last week two partners from here took a group of in house counsel for a major defense client (one of the top 3) out to lunch, after giving them an in-office seminar for a handful of attorneys in their GC office. They reported back at our monthly departmental luncheon today that the GC did *not* reach for the check when it came. Normally the GC either reaches for the check or when the partner reaches for the check, the GC insists on a split. It didn’t happen this time.
Keep sharing. Daily updates on this subject, please.
Pentagon laying off 46,000 employees:
Full time civilian employees, which number in the hundreds of thousands, also will be furloughed for one day a week for 22 weeks, Deputy Defense Secretary Ash Carter said in an interview with wire service reporters.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/25/us/pentagon-layoffs/index.html?iid=HP_LN
Rich guys not reaching for the check.
Now THAT’S just cheap.
It wasn’t clear that the GC himself went. I think it might’ve been other in house attorneys. It’s still weird that none of them brandished their business credit card though.
The partners from here discussed (jokingly) sending them a bill for their hours doing the seminar and travel time. Obviously that woudl be tacky and won’t happen. Still a funny story.
We’re sending people out to visit clients at this point to find potential issues that the clients’ in house departments are “missing”. Possible issues for protest, etc.
Filed under “Nothing to see here…”, a short list of interesting news items from Boston.com
* Hasbro announced they are laying off 10% of their workforce after a disappointing 4th quarter.
* A family with their 2 yo child was attacked recently on the Red Line, near the Broadway stop, by a man wielding a 40 oz bottle and a woman he was with at the time.
* A man was arrested for stabbing another man at a Chuck-E-Cheese in Leominster.
* The Mass Attorney General is pushing for an update to the Massachusetts Wiretapping laws, citing the recent Newtown shooting and the need to prevent future gun violence. The move would increase a wiretap from 15 days to 30 days, include all electronic devices and communications, and eliminate the requirement of the warrant be related to an organized-crime investigation.
He wielded the woman he was with? Holy cow that dude must have been strong!
He wielded the woman he was with?
LOL. Let me rephrase:
“… by a man and a woman. The attacker wielded a 40 oz bottle as a weapon.”
“a man wielding a 40 oz bottle”
Sometimes as I scroll through the comments, my mind puts a different word in place of the actual one. I first read “wielding” as “wearing”, LMAO. I was trying to envision what a man wearing a 40 oz bottle would look like, and how he would wear it.
He wielded the woman he was with? Holy cow that dude must have been strong!
Hell hath no fury like a woman wielded.
Hasbro announced they are laying off 10% of their workforce after a disappointing 4th quarter.
Ya gotta love it. They’re laying off, not because they’re losing money, but because they didn’t quite reach their profit targets.
Used to be that when the firm was going gangbusters it meant big raises and bonuses. Now it mean you get to keep your job … maybe.
Used to be that when the firm was going gangbusters it meant big raises and bonuses.
For the last few decades the rule has been, big raises, bonuses and guaranteed pensions for insiders, and no raises for the grunt employees, until the firm goes toes up.
Not really. Back when Hewlett Packard was still run by Hewlett and Packard I would get 4-5% raises every year and profit sharing bonuses (as high as 15% of my annual salary)
Those days are LONG gone. Even when HP had huge profits under Mark Hurd, bonuses and raises vanished.
I made it through 2008 w/o knowing anyone who lost a job. This week 3 lost their jobs. Two in finance and one in defense.
I honestly do not see the economy growing fast enough to absorb the cuts. Every 160 billion in cuts is about 1% of gdp and we were only growing at 2% before the cuts. We need to deal with the budget deficits so if they cannot agree on a future plan then we have frontloaded cuts which mean no growth this year.
I’m starting to realize how working for a publicly traded company really changes things when it comes to having to provide accurate forecasts, etc.
My distribution partners are all privately held and while they forecast, they are way less anal about focusing on the number as opposed to the project.
Just think of how much money they are going to make, when the private sector eliminates all of the employees.
We have a mental health issue causing a shooting and they want an increase in the authority to wiretap? Talk about using a tragedy to promote an agenda. So government not only takes away second amendment rights it gets to take away fourth amendment rights. Of course, that is what the people protecting second amendment rights have argued, once the second amendment rights are seriously eroded, the rest of the bill of rights is just as valuable as similar language which was contained in the constitution that the Soviet Union had.
Yup.
And remember that the PATRIOT Act wasn’t written in six weeks in autumn 2001, it was already written and waiting to be dusted off and pushed through with little opposition from a traumatized electorate.
Some HBB posters may feel that it is alarmist to perceive the recent (and very urgent) momentum to disarm the public as a direct assault on our constitutional rights, but as far as we’re concerned, it is not much different than Hitler’s rise to power.
The Reichstag is burning…
When the time comes to defend the constitution with your personal arsenal of weapons who is going to be your leader? Who is going to make the battle plans, organize the defenses, treat the wounded? You want the truth, it’s not the government you fear, it’s your fellow citizens.
If TEOTWAWKI scenario actually happens, we’ll take 2-4-6 weeks of living in the Rocky Mountains playing “Red Dawn” before we starve or get shot rather than living in a post-Katrina Superdome. To each his own…
How about organizing a general strike? It’s the ONLY thing that could stop and reverse what has been happening. If you could get 20%-30% of all workers to strike for 4-5 days it would stop Obama and Congress in their tracks and break the strangle hold big money has on our government. Just look at that new immigration law they just whipped out. More money for secure boarders? We already spend more than $17.9 billion on immigration security and enforcement (up 1,500% since 9/11/2001). Look at the huge loop hole for farm labor, nothing but legalized slavery and the free pass for any immigrant willing to join the military. It’s Bullsh*t.
http://www.migrationpolicy.org/pubs/enforcementpillars.pdf
Why do you think they’ve been so busy destroying unions? All things being equal I don’t like the idea of public unions but things aren’t equal the elite have total control of our media, political system and more and more so our judiciary. They control more and more of the wealth as the middle class becomes weaker and poorer.
From the Romney campaign to real estate:
http://washingtonexaminer.com/bay-buchanan-trades-politics-for-real-estate/article/2519877#.UQbWDaU1lhQ
Of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%
New York Times - Pay Still High at Bailed-Out Firms, Report Says:
“Top executives at firms that received taxpayer bailouts during the financial crisis continue to receive generous government-approved compensation packages, a Treasury watchdog said in a report released on Monday.”
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/01/29/business/generous-executive-pay-at-bailed-out-companies-treasury-watchdog-says.xml
It must be nice to fail UP.
This one’s for Ben
New York Times - U.S. Plans Base for Surveillance Drones in Northwest Africa:
“The United States military command in Africa is preparing plans to establish a drone base in northwest Africa to increase unarmed surveillance on the local affiliate of Al Qaeda and other Islamist extremist groups that American and other Western officials say pose a growing menace to that region.”
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/01/29/us/us-plans-base-for-surveillance-drones-in-northwest-africa.xml
My next question is…… Why is the Air Force training (and paying) guys to fly these drones?
Looks to me like the USAF should partner with XBox or Nintendo. Sell the control consoles to Joe Q Publix, and rent out the drones for a reasonable fee. Uncle Sam will buy the first ten missiles.
Free pilots/labor + income stream from the hardware = Pentagon Contractor’s Wet Dream
The perfect Christmas gift for all those wanna-be Crusaders against Muslims/Terrorist Taker-Outers/Kill-them-all-and-let-God-sortem-out types.
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2013/0128/Americans-now-love-15-year-fixed-mortgages
More and more people refinancing with 15 year loans. This is very good for long-term health of households. Pay-off the debt in 15 years, but more importantly, pay down the debt quickly (they note in year 2, half your payment for a 15-year goes to principal reduction).
Throwing more money at a depreciating asset is “very good”?
You have a distorted understanding of “good”.
If you already have the debt, paying less for it, and paying it off faster is better.
You are throwing less money at the depreciating asset (less interest cost over time, faster repayment of principal).
The other option is to walk away, but that would be stupid if you aren’t underwater.
If you bought a house 1998-2013, you’re underwater or will be.
Who ARE these people that afford to do this?
Who even get’s to keep thier job for 15 years?
They noted that most first-time buyers still are opting for 30-years.
These are people who bought when rates were 5%+, are several years into their amortization schedule, and can afford an extra few-hundred a month to repay debt.
Rather than opt for a refi that would LOWER their monthly payment, and extend out for another 30 years, they are opting for a refi that RAISES their monthly payment and extends for only 15.
This is actually a defensive measure if they are worried about their job for a 15-year timeframe…on a 3% rate, after:
1 Year, they have paid down 5% of the balance
2 years: 10.5%
3 years: 16%
4 years: 22%
5 years: 28%
With a 30-year, at 3.75%, after 5 years, they would have only paid down 10% of their mortgage.
They longer they can make the payments (have their jobs), all else equal, the less debt they have, the more flexibility they have.
Now, if I can just get one of them 30 year, zero-percent loans like the banksters get…….
I have said this before but I will say it again. If you look at what major corporations are doing they are issuing thirty year bonds. Meanwhile the mainstreet media is encouraging joe6pack to finance only fifteen years out. I think a very good argument can be made that the big banks and big corporations see much higher inflation in the future and it makes sense to finance long. The banks would be in a lot of trouble, just like they were in the late 70’s early 80’s, if they paying more for the short term money than the mortgages and this was a time when the 20 year mortgage was more common than the 30.
A fundamental difference between corporations and people though is that the corporate debt is generally evergreen, in that they are financing for 30-years, and then in 30-years, they have to refinance the whole of the debt–and if they have a stable business, no problem.
For individuals, people can’t work forever, and as such, they need to have a plan to cover their basic needs after they are done working…a part of this for many people is to own their shelter, debt free. So, a replacing a 30-year with a 15-year makes a ton of sense with that as a backdrop…even if you expect a lot of inflation.
The caveat is if you have plenty of resources to repay the mortgage and don’t need a job anyway (ie. independently wealthy). In that case, borrow for as long as possible, and put your excess capital in a place where you think it will react more favorably to inflation…that is a sophisticated investor’s attitude, and not necessarily appropriate for most out there (even inappropriate for sophisticated investors with smaller balance sheets).
The fundamental difference between corporations and people are that corporations are logical constructs and people are actual physical things.
I’ve seen people try to structure their personal finances like a corporation’s. The corporation can dissolve and the members of the construct walk away with their paychecks and severance packages. The individual remains on the hook for his debts and legal obligations.
BINGO
If I’m a CEO and looking to keep my paycheck for the next 10 years I want to borrow as much as possible at 0% and use that money A as a safety net so if the sht hits the fan in the short term I can ride it out with my paycheck in tact. I can also use the debt to pump up earnings and get a bonus. Who cares if the company goes BK in 10 years I’ve already got mine.
The individual has to look for the long term.
Dumb questions of the day:
1) Is there a way to refi an underwater mortgage at low current rates?
2) If not, why?
3) If yes, how?
Thx; I don’t have a mortgage, but a friend does and claims she cannot refi…
I guess that just paying down the mortgage is not an option. I have heard on the radio that some FHA loans can be refinanced despite being underwater due to a federal program but I do not know which ones There maybe other federal programs but I do not know. As far as the question why not for the most of them, why would anyone loan anyone money with no collateral at 3.5% interest rates particularily in a non-recourse state?
1. Yes
3. HARP 2.0 (http://www.zillow.com/mortgage-calculator/harp-eligibility/)
Whether she qualifies or not is a big guess…I haven’t looked at requirements, but my understanding is that you can be eligible no matter how underwater you are…
Thanks. I will try to report back on whether my friend succeeds in utilizing this program. (Can’t tell at the moment whether she did not qualify, or merely didn’t realize she did qualify…)
My friend is an upstanding citizen and a soccer mom, and not one I generally expect to be tuned in to the workings of high finance. She had some choice words to offer about the decisions made at the top to bail out the banksters while throwing ordinary households like hers under the bus.
Our conversation led me to believe that perhaps ordinary Americans are presently entering the anger phase of the housing bubble stages of grief.
“Our conversation led me to believe that perhaps ordinary Americans are presently entering the anger phase of the housing bubble stages of grief.”
I remember this sort of thing when the draft lotto eventually selected “their” son, and the Vietnam war took on a whole different meaning.
It is good to be a .02%
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/95-million-apartment-60-000-135254129.html