The Housing Bubble

There is a difference between looking for a progressive nut hiding in the woods and routine surveillance of an unsuspecting populous. I guess we need well-regulated internet restricted to those who do not post coded messages intended to deflect criticism from an authoritarian president bent on “Fundamentally changing the United States of America”.

Cognitive dissonance much, nicky?

Which side are you on anyway; the anti-Statists or the law and order authoritarians?

nickpapageorgio: what ulcer medication do you take?

breath…..breath……breath…..

Keep changing the subject and using personal attacks. Your president wants to “Fundamentally change the United States of America”, you agree with him in that regard, therefore you consistently attempt cover for him using your pseudo-intellectual riddles.

no he does not, you are delusional.

Obama is more of a good capitalist and fiscal conservative then your gods: reagan and bush.

I’m sure they could give him an honorary membership… but that would make him even more scary. They’d be shooting up the wrong trucks from an even greater distance.

Wow, Dorner… Drone.

One letter away from topping Madam Curie.

Nice, mugz.

Thanks, I had a full-blown 9/11 flashback/meltdown recently, the result of which is a complicated screenplay (think Adaptation).

We will be in touch when the time is right. Please do not wrestle with any wildlife before I get this thing finished.

I guess if they kill him, that will take care of possible issues with airing his LAPD grievances in the MSM?

I guess since this guy is a “right thinking” progressive wing nut, we must look into the legitimacy of his grievances.

I’ve alway thought if the could divide the Govornors office into 3 separates states, then the average IQ of Texas would go up.

Personally, I’d like the see the US announce that it’s eliminating its imperial military entirely in favor of a trained citizen National Guard and a few “elite” divisions to handle international policing matters. Tell the corporate expansionists and their oiligarchy that they’re on their own now, and under the jurisdiction of the UN.

A permanent cut of 90% sounds about right to me. If the Swiss and Singaporians can do it and still remain financial powerhouses, so can we.

The resources spent on perpetuating the MIC (domestic and international — they’re all the same players) could be far better spent on research and development of trans-dimensional matter and energy generation, biogenetic research, a vastly improved infrastructure, and much-needed societal remediation and restructuring.

ahansen for President!!

ahansen for President!!

Seconded.

How about Israel?

Move it to Baja and open the borders. It’s already running the US anyway….

I always thought the USA should buy Baja and put a huge, solar de-sal plant down there, clean it up and raise the tolls on the roads. Great beaches!

Respectfully, ahansen - another POV.

The military is - imho - a much needed jobz program. Not to put too fine a point on it, there is a loooonnnng tail for every front-line job, 20:1. Lots of useful skillz to be larned.

Plus the undeniable benefit of four years’ worth of living on a regular schedule, learning to work on a team, the benefit of physical fitness (for many, their first experience), and heeding authorities without punching ‘em out (regardless of inclination). Regular schedule, physical fitness and teamwork: those habitz ingrained over four years comprise the foundation of a productive life.

Those habitz are virtually impossible to acquire for those without parental support or other role models. You would be surprised how many there are in this generation, brought up as they were amidst the reckless self-indulgence of the bubble years.

ahansen, regrettably, most of us 99%’ers have not led examined lives. Our kids will suffer from it. The military serves as a proxy for the parenting that should have instilled these habits.

That is MHO, and I stand by it.

Absolutely agree, Jane. But why not change the orientation to productive rather than destructive ends?

But shouldn’t that money be spend HERE, protecting our borders?

If you want to protect Lithuania..let them pay and sub contract our troops.

Just like if we let corporations bring all that money overseas back home tax free only if its spent on legal Americans in America bring all you call centers back home…all the money is tax free and will be recycled in what country?

Last time they bought back stock, paid exec bonuses, and screwed Americans.

The military is - imho - a much needed jobz program

Tell that to General Petrause.

Tell that to General Petrause.
He was a servant, not a master.

‘OWS, the Paulians, and the TeaParty’

All easily derailed or co-opted by the establishment with no damage to the system.

i know…it’s by devine stupidity.

That’s only part of it. There is also the lying, cheating and stealing part.

“Merit” is the LAST thing on the list of causes.

I was wrong, Iverson’s agent is Leon Rose… the same agent as Lebron James.

Yeah, that guy can easily afford to take care of A.I. for life if he chooses. Just give him $10k here and there for “pocket change”.

Attorneys are thieves.

Benedict won’t be remembered like JP2, he was just a caretaker. As for a successor, it would be interesting if say a Chinese Cardinal was chosen.

I used to like Arinze from Nigeria though I haven’t kept up with him lately. He’ll be in the running I think.

It will be interesting to see if they go with a “non-traditional” candidate or if they will just pick some European dude.

William Hill made Turkson — one of the highest-ranking African cardinals at the Vatican — its 3/1 favorite Monday, followed by Ouellet at 7/2 and Arinze at 4/1. Ladbrokes also had Turkson as favorite, followed by Arinze and Ouellet.

Ireland’s Paddy Power also offered short odds on the three, as well as long odds on unlikely candidates — including U2 singer Bono at 1,000/1. It also offered 1,000/1 odds on Father Dougal Maguire, the simpleminded fictional priest from 1990s U.K. sitcom “Father Ted.”

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/02/11/bookmakers-offer-odds-on-papal-contenders-including-african-cardinals-and-bono/#ixzz2KcmvVo42

yes I guess Arinze’s gotten too old really.

I think that it would be the Italian tourist biz that would be impacted. Last time I checked there were no hotels or restaurants in Vatican City.

This doesn’t square with the huge new car sales numbers.

Huge? They are still below the peak. That said, there has been a spike recently, but over the past 6-7 years new car sales have hovered in the 11-12M range.

And even though people might be buying more new cars, they are trading in much older cars, if they are trading in at all. The article that I read quoted a Denver area dealer complaining that the typical trade in has over 100K miles.

As for the new car spike last year, I think it might actually be driven by “pent up demand” as cars that people have been hanging onto are starting to become beaters. But I think that the old model of “buy, trade in after 3-4 years” is over. That said, leasing could counter that, but I think that many drivers are becoming wary of endless monthly payments.

One thing I wonder about the current new car sales boom is that I’m not seeing it in my neck of the woods. The ubiquitous temporary tags still seem rare. Might the government or other fleet buyers be the ones gobbling up new vehicle sales? I really don’t know.

For the first time since 1994, Im doing a winter with no car.

It would if those used cars were being given/sold to family/friends or sold curbside. The seller than takes that money and buys new.

But yes, used car prices are ridiculous these days, yet trade in value still sucks.

As for the huge sales, not really. Look at historical sales over the last 10 years. Sales are still down from even just 7 years ago.

I too LOLd at “Obama Studies.”

Sure, east of the 405 or 5.

I think of coastal as, be there in less than 15 mins.

$540K in SJ gets you into a not so nice neighborhood.

“$540K in SJ gets you into a not so nice neighborhood.”

+1 Exactly right.

At home it’s freezing in the low 20’s, but in San Jose it’s patio weather. My friend’s neighbor has his lowered pickup truck parked on the front lawn, doors open, boom-box playing, waxing that thing in his t-shirt and trucks. I’m a civil engineer, and I can’t even afford a SJ barrio. It’s surreal.

SJ is gross, just like inland Orange County. bad schools, traffic, gangs, road rage, chain restaurants, strip malls…. yuk!
and not patio weather for locals. 40 degrees after sundown.

I don’t pretend to have all the answers, but I will venture some guesses to your questions. Please consult RAL for definitive answers.
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Does land depreciate?

–> First off, do you mean in real price (inflation adjusted) or nominal terms? I’d actually say yes to both, but for different reasons. Here are some things to think about - What is happening on adjacent land? How is the land zoned, how is adjacent land zoned? Are there environmental considerations? How is the state/county doing and how will that affect property taxes?

————
In theory how long will a home built to code last in CA?

–> No idea, as I’m not a builder. Based on what I see in Maryland (fairly strict codes) it’s still easy for builders to do the cheapest job possible. Houses built here in the 00s and 10s seem pretty cheaply built compared to houses built in the 60s and 70s. It seems like most of the people working on the projects are Jose and Juan who probably work hard but aren’t that experienced. I believe when RAL says that new housing can be built for $50-60 sq ft. Obviously, land costs and environmental restrictions add to that. But when we’re talking about the actual structure of the house, I totally believe RAL on that.

———-
What part of this equation is doing all the appreciating?

–>I’m not sure what this question means. Are you seriously asking “why have house prices increased?” and you really can’t figure it out? I would say that house price “increases” in the last 10-15 yrs are almost entirely based upon the 2000-2007 period of easy mortgages and “easy money” policy from the Fed, combined with government trying to create an “ownership society”. Which, ironically, is predicated on mortgage DEBT, which is antithetical to “owning” anything.

My experience in SoCal is that houses aren’t built to last. The differences between our Colorado house and the one we had in SoCal are striking. Quality of fixtures, siding, paint jobs, trim, etc is all subpar.

For instance, the level of insulation in SoCal (the house was built in 1989) was a joke. Even though it’s much colder here and the house is twice as big (3x if you count the basement) it costs about the same to heat both houses. I think part of the reason for that it that SoCal houses are built on slabs, which are heat sinks in the winter.

Also, re: does land depreciate?

Keep in mind, land values depend heavily on electric/gas/sewer/water availability. The days of utilities installing new service for cheap are over, I think.

There are also a lot of restrictions on wells and septic tanks in areas near water supplies. For example, Maryland has tough new laws because of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. I would assume that most states (even conservative ones) will prioritize their water supply as fresh water becomes more rare.

I imagine land in CA would depreciate fast if the Big One hits.

I imagine land in CA would depreciate fast if the Big One hits.

+1 СRАТЕЯЯЯ!

Here’s a link to a story about the new MD septic tank regs that went into effect last month. http://smnewsnet.com/archives/26577

The upshot of the new regs are that it’s now going to be much more expensive to build in sensitive waterfront areas. As it should be, because some cheap azz contractor and/or homeowner putting in a leaky, crappy system costs everyone a ton of money (w/r/t cleaning up pollution).

But of course to Eastern Shore Republicans (eastern shore of MD is a very “tea flavored” area) this is nothing short of communism/socialism. “Who are you to tell us we can’t just leak our pollution into the watershed???!”!

I think they passed it just to keep Rumsfeld’s and Cheney’s “pollution” out of the Bay.

Republicans can sh*t in their own nest, because their sh*t don’t stink.

four large vehicles in the driveway and on what was once the lawn. Children’s toys strewn all over the place

If you don’t like living in a neighborhood like this, you are a Racist®

This sounds like the kind of thing that could be a zoning violation in a lot of places? If someone did that on my block, I’d be the a-hole who would call in the violation.

could be a zoning violation

Once a neighborhood like that gets zoned Aztlan, it is no longer USA. Your tattle-tale phone call will accomplish jack sh*t.

I’ve seen this cycle many times.

An unassuming middle class neighborhood of small houses slides into low income status and after 30-40 years, it is rediscovered as “quaint” and restorable and goes back to respectable middel class neighborhoods, but now with “character”.

Well, not always.

“…and on what was once the lawn. Children’s toys strewn all over the place…”

Some homes around here are exactly like that except the bicycles and toys are buried under snow for the winter. Usually a large boat parked diagonally on the front lawn too.

“could be a zoning violation

Once a neighborhood like that gets zoned Aztlan, it is no longer USA. Your tattle-tale phone call will accomplish jack sh*t.”
——————
I’m not sure, our city gov’t is very aggressive about fines and towing. They *love* to do this. Washington D.C. and N.Y.C. love it even more.

Even if minorities are the majority (by population) the rules and enforcement are squarely protective of evil old white people with dinero.

An unassuming close-in middle class neighborhood of small not attached houses with yards slides into low income status as yuppies discover ego-stroking McMansions and after 30-40 years, it is rediscovered as “quaint” not-condos within commuting distance.

Fixed it for you.

There is talk of the nearby commercial area being redeveloped with “mixed-use.” Translation: they want to pave it over with sky-high shiny condo towers and force all the yuppies into f-ing floating boxes of air. By the time it’s all built, a 2-bed glass condo will probably cost more than my house did. Maybe when I’m 65, some of those young yuppies will pay a premium for a yard and a dedicated parking space.

“By the time it’s all built, a 2-bed glass condo will probably cost more than my house did.”

By that time, they’ll be able to buy 4 condo’s for the same grossly inflated price you paid for your depreciating hut.

Good job oxide. Got that right.

LOLZ

I thought the redevelopment of White Flint was a done deal, wasn’t it? Maybe that is not the area you are talking about. I know that MoCo wants to concentrate development around the Metro stops, and they almost have to because of land use rules that require a certain part of the county be retained as farm land, but glass boxes in the sky way out in the suburbs don’t provide the space that the people who need to live here really want. Yeah, they can work for singles or DINKs, but those people are not likely to want to live that far away. It isn’t Dupont Circle if you can’t walk out the door and be in Dupont Cicle.

I’m back from NYC. City seemed to get about a foot. Niece’s birthday party went off without a hitch connected to the weather. The best part was going sledding in Central Park. We figured out that the inflatable sled went faster and farther with an adult on board, so each of us middle aged grown ups took a ride down with each kid. Keeping up with a 6 year old and a 3 year old is tough on the knees but good for the soul.

Economics - great for observing, disecting, describing things. Not so great for predicting things.

Horrible, actually. I remember taking econ 101 in college and the prof was in the middle of applying a formula to something or other and in the middle of the exercise, it failed. I’ll never forget the shamefaced look of surprise on his face as he squinted at the blackboard, backed away, and looked at the class. “Well, whaddya know? It doesn’t work!”

I think the current system makes the assumption that prices will continue to go up in the future. The real problem is that a lot of peoples income are not following the same trend.

These costs are catching up to the middle wage earner:

Education
Healthcare
Energy
Housing
Food
Poor return of investment - zirp
Transportation

If you dont have to incomes in the household you are screwed.

They keep saying there is no inflation but ask the typical worker that same question.

A lot of people are dropping out.

These costs are catching up with above average wage earners too.

I think the current system makes the assumption that prices will continue to go up in the future.”

Under voodoo, er, “supply side” economics, prices do rise in the future.

They may take dips, but those are usually temporary (by X amount of time) and eventaully, they do rise and stay higher than the historical avg.

While not true for everything, it is true for most things.

Again, this is just for voodoo, er (dang, will I ever learn?) “supply side” economics.

“Now that the federal government is playing an ever larger role in the economy,…”

That first sentence is an understatement.

“Not so great for predicting things.”

Does it help predictions to have at your disposal the tools of massive market-distorting intervention to help them come true?

and Home Depot is hiring 80,000 people this spring.

Looks like retirement will be in Vietnam on SS for a lot of people.

“I thought hedgies bought in cheap bulk, not expensive individual homes.”

If they can, but they are really buying whatever they can, including one-off homes.

People on HBB talk glibly of fighting assymetrical warfare against the U.S. gov’t.

And how the Taliban have done it for a decade now, so why couldn’t bootstrap-y teabillies?

I’m not saying it isn’t possible that it would be a drawn-out affair, I’m saying that I wouldn’t bet *any* money on teabillies accomplishing anything.

Well, for one, the rank and file Taliban guy has nothing to lose.

For two, the Taliban aren’t self-funding, they’re funded by outsiders.

For three, the Taliban aren’t fighting their *own* government as much as they’re fighting a foreign power (the U.S.). If Afghanistan had a decently functioning government that could control its own territory, none of us would be in this situation to begin with.

For four, the US military operates in Iraq and Afghanistan under conservative rules of engagement. On one hand, we love to make war. On the other, we don’t seem that interested in really defining concrete goals and winning. In a war of necessity (vs a war of choice) you would think the U.S. wouldn’t be as shy.

There are many other reasons I think teabillies attacking the U.S. government is stupid. But the biggest one is, all the things we take for granted here in the U.S. would all come into question. Fresh food, clean water, functioning computer networks, etc.

all the things we take for granted here in the U.S. would all come into question
They should already be in question. A few guys with .50 rifles could cripple the national electrical grid for months, with just a few well-aimed shots. The high-voltage transformers that are key to the national grid are custom-made (none are in inventory), for the most part not made in the USA, and very hard to move due to their size and weight. A report on this vulnerability was declassified last December, except for a few pages.

“If Afghanistan had a decently functioning government that could control its own territory, none of us would be in this situation to begin with.”

Israel felt Iran needed U.S. airbases along their eastern flank, and eventually Pakistan will require a nuclear gelding. The Taliban situation could have mopped-up years ago with a high bounty; we are there for tactical reasons.

joe smith
2013-02-11 10:07:31
People on HBB talk glibly of fighting assymetrical warfare against the U.S. gov’t.
————————————————–

There are only two kinds of insurgents; white ones, and everybody else.

“…we are there for tactical reasons.”

As I’ve been saying for years.

And strategic. (oil. nukes. minerals. China)

“A few guys with .50 rifles could cripple the national electrical grid for months”

Exactly why I wont live in AZ or ice covered places. I dont want to rely on the grid.

I’m not saying it isn’t possible that it would be a drawn-out affair, I’m saying that I wouldn’t bet *any* money on teabillies accomplishing anything.

So don’t. I hope we never find out. But there are fates even worse than finding out.

three times zero still = zero

BTW, I don’t agree with the whole “don’t pay a living wage” thing. I have already said my dad was a McCain and Mittens (TM) supporter. And I have realized that so many Mittens-voters have no idea they’re getting a bad deal, so why should I go out of my way to care about them? It doesn’t mean I agree with it.

We have people like BananaBoy shrieking on HBB about how Obamaphones and union goons are the real reason America is struggling. LOL, if these people can’t look at the budget and interpret it, we’re never going to fix the big problems. They basically want us to save a few bucks here and there while defense contractors rob us blind and the top 1-2% rake in big tax breaks that distort the economy. In the end, these tax breaks make everyone worse off by destabilizing our infrastructure, families, and educational system. Everything turned into a business for private profit = lower quality of public goods = backbone of society is broken = eventually America no longer exists, except as a big shopping mall.

If you know anyone who works for the gov/state/city/caltrans etc… you know how ripped of the tax payers get.

I heard from a probation officer it cost the state $20k per mo for one 15 yr old who is too young for jail. (in CA).

and what would it cost to force him into speaking English before he is released?

“…tried to commit suicide…”

Failed at that too?

hes back at work now with slashed up hands. Kids a bit freaked at that. Glad to have smaller problems.

You don’t mention that you didn’t create any wealth, just flipping houses. Somebody else paid for it, probably got foreclosed, taxpayers pick up the tab maybe. Multiply you by a few million and we can see why this country is in a hole. But you got yours, right?

Oh well, there’s a lot of sleazeballs associated with the housing bubble.

Lying sleazeballs…. and they’re right here on this blog.

Ban the sleazeballs like myself. Have yourself a rah rah we all agree conversation with your housing flunkies. It is your blog.

Did you not get the fact that I bought in 95 to live in the town I worked in, got hurt in 1998, and took advantage of appreciation and buying/selling houses to afford life and reeducate myself into a different field?. Plus I paid lots in cap gains tax, also paid for my own medical treatment and medications.

Start with the libelous RAL; who has no problem calling me a lying junkie in print.

Whatever

A little touchy, huh? I’ve told you this before, when you started bragging about all the money you’ve made flipping houses. Every penny came out of someones pocket. The CEO of Countrywide made a lot of money too. Did he create anything. or just got lucky? He’s probably sitting on a beach somewhere telling stories like yours. Bob Toll still has those Picaso’s on his wall. Should I sit around listening to him astound me with his good fortune? Or remind him of the people who lost millions on his crap-shacks?

I’ll say it again to you, because you apparently don’t remember. Every bit of the housing bubble money will have to come out of someone’s hide. And then when you add up all the related destruction to the economy, who can measure how many jobs and futures will be erased because of this thing? Don’t expect me to sit here and listen to you brag about what’s done so much damage to us all, without mentioning who really paid the price.

keep allowing Ral to post anecdotes without a single piece of data. Then Joe saying three pieces of anecdotal evidence does not data make; and that his dad got mega rich keeping his workers on welfare. 0 times 0 is also 0. Who has that helped besides Joe’s dad? Who hurt more lives? Cognitive dissonance alert! I am outie. For reals.

I paid lots of realtors and doctors wages; taxes too. That put food on someone’s table.

Life gave me lemons; didn’t want to get hurt and disfunctional. I sold those inflated lemons rather than holding on to the lemons while they rotted. Got into my first house to put a roof over my head. It appreciated. I am grateful for that. Is that OK??

‘ I sold those inflated lemons’

And walked away when one went south. Don’t try and pretend you’re some casual participant in this thing. ‘I paid lots of realtors and doctors wages; taxes too. That put food on someone’s table’ Yeah and Mozilo buys lot of limo service; think of the children!

‘Is that OK??’

What do you care what’s OK by me? You drift by here, whining about this or that, bitching about this blog and the people on it. Look in the mirror; you are the problem. And I don’t care if I ever see another post from you again.

Did see it, was awesome.

I also thought “They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?” was another great GD-themed movie.

Still seeing commercial buildings vacant after 5 years ??

And likely will remain so….Amazon, UPS and the web have changed things permanently IMO…

But don’t expect the price to come down on any of that real estate.

It’s not bad this time because of safety measures put into place because OF the GD.

All you have to do is look at the number to know it far, far worse than the GD1 and those safety measures are th only thing keeping the cities from burning.

But those measures are slowly but surely being whittled away and in fact, repeal of some of them was the very cause of our current mess.

“look at the numbers”

That is why we humiliated all those big banks with handouts! We showed them!!! Next time, they make not ask for trillions!

…my mother’s *family* that is.

Seen Shanghai lately?

Hehe…I reuse ziplock baggies.

I’m with you on that, Steve. If I use it to transport a sandwich to work, and the sandwich is wrapped in a paper towel, why would’t I reuse the bag?

“My grandmother would wash and re-use aluminum foil.”

So did mine, and she was chauffeured to school. (family was in alcohol biz)

I haven’t had a case of spaghetti wires in years since i put all my cables wires cords adapters in those ziplock bags…yeah i even labeled them too

Hehe…I reuse ziplock baggies.

My partner has on his wall an old letter between one of his relatives and the Federal government about them having extra pigs on their property. The Feds were telling them to get rid of the extra hogs, they wanted to see if they could shift their allocation of hogs from one year to the next, etc.

Amazing. I don’t recall when the letters were written, but I seem to recall mid-century (if not earlier).

We’re defending 2 of these bootstrapping Medicare middle-men (management contractors) now. In qui tam claims, which means that employees (usually disgruntled former employees) bring info to the gov’t and try to get the gov’t to pursue an action for fraud.

The gov’t usually does *not* pursue the action for fraud. Leaving the relator (person who raise the original complaint) to pursue it for themselves. If they win, they get a cut of the money the gov’t recoups.

Usually the relator has very little chance of getting anything. The Big Boyz contractors go and hire a big azz law firm that can play serve-and-volley with tons of discovery (burying useful items in a mountain of innocuous ones). It can take years for these things to go away, costing everyone a ton of money. But the basic rule is, if you can convince the government (CMS usually) not to join the relator’s suit, you’ve won because you can just overpower to less-resourced law firm with brute volume.

you’ve won because you can just overpower to less-resourced law firm with brute volume.
I think the term for that is “lawfare”.

Rule of law?

Golden rule of law!

But I’ll bet less regulation will fix it!!

All in good time.

I think “In Colorado” is right. VC’s are not going to be moving to TX. Imagine someone like Tim Draper. And then try to imagine him in Texas. Not happening. I could go right down the list, guys like Marc Andreeson, etc.

Same thing for Fred Wilson–no way someone like that relocates from Manhattan to Texas.

These guys are the ones that can fund the “next big thing”. Network effects dictate that if you want to get funded like the next big thing, you better be really close to your money men.

‘VC’s are not going to be moving to TX’

When I worked for an Austin dotcom in the 90’s, I had meetings with some of these guys. Some were from California, others lived in Texas.

They won’t have a choice.

The fact that it’s “impossible” makes it most likely to occur. I’d say it’s imminent.

Today’s VC’s have offices all over the world and fund projects everywhere. But nope, they will not fund in Texas.

Who argues like that?

“Who argues like that?”

Liars, realtards, house pimps, debt junkies, etc.

“Today’s VC’s have offices all over the world and fund projects everywhere. But nope, they will not fund in Texas. ”
————-

No one said that there would be no funding in other states. But the fact remains, network effects are extremely powerful. Yes, property in Manhattan adn Sil Valley is overpriced. However, there are good reasons that the biggest deals for new tech will still involve NorCal and Manhattan.

It’s the same reason that the biggest law firms (by litigation volume or dela volume) are still in rather tight geographical windows. Could some of them move out into Virginia or across the Hudson to NJ (say, Hoboken)? Yes. Do they? No. Same thing in London or any other world city. The firms cluster around each other. At the highest levels of dealmaking, personal contact is still important. Yes, a lot of nameless/faceless work can easily be ported around the world, people can work from home, etc. But this is not how major business decisions are made.

There’s more harpsichord music than reality and I think you know it.

As SillyValley firms mature(commoditize), they’ll go elsewhere.

Business culture is also still important. TX is pretty big on PE. Not nearly so much on VC. Not saying they don’t have any at all, just that the legal and banking culture there is not as familiar with the ins and outs of VC. The legal frameworks of some states are also advantageous to certain types of deals. Even if it costs more to raise a round in one state versus another, many of the big players only want to operate where there are predictable outcomes if K terms ever require litigation or mediation. These guys are after outsized returns, they are not going to be detered by a few % one way or the other in terms of taxes. Moreover, fed taxes are the big issue anyway and these guys already know how to play the fed tax game. They use the same Mitten-y tactics that House GOP leaders ruthlessly defend (I’m looking at you, Paul Ryan).

As SillyValley firms mature(commoditize), they’ll go elsewhere.

That’s been happening for decades, and yet Silly Valley is still there and houses there are more expensive than ever.

My wife is an attorney that does a lot of VC work. One day, she noted how some employment agreement from a prior employer for some entrepreneur in a different state prohibited them from all sorts of activities–that were only marginally related to the business they wanted to start.

She said that there is no way in hell that would happen in CA–such employment agreements are not legal here. The laws here are very favorable toward people wanting to leave their jobs to start a business.

You’ve got a legal environment that is pro-entrepreneur, lots of money, lots of experience starting companies, a willingness to take risk on new ideas, very good colleges around (Berkeley and Stanford, among others), and the existing network of established, successful tech professionals.

Many places have tried to replicate Silicon Valley…none have yet succeeded to any substantial degree. That is why, at last count, 40% of all venture dollars invested in the US land in Silicon Valley. Next closest are New England at 12%, and NYC at 12%. LA/Orange County/San Diego are another 10% or so (taking CA to 50% of all venture dollars invested). Texas is at 3%.

PWC (in conjunction with the National VC Association) puts out a MoneyTree Report quarterly with all the data. The numbers above are from their Q4 2012 Investments by Region information.

When they no longer need the top talent, sure. When, as Pimp Watch says, they are commodities.

Of course, the VC’s can pretend to live in a low-tax state, much like Bill in LA. Or like Mittens, who has houses in 7 (?) states and keeps his money in the Jersey Island and Caymans.

VC’s are the big boyz. They’re not fighting over a few buckz here and there. To stay on top they need to be in NYC, DC, SF, etc. I’m not saying it’s “right”, but it is reality.

What’s your next idea, that Goldman Sachs and Watchell Lipton Rosen & Katz type firms will decamp to low-tax FL? They’d rather die and you’re fooling yourself if you think otherwise. Firms like those won’t even consider moving a few blocks to a lower-rent building, much less moving to a different state.

Nice to be in the same sentence as “Mittens.”

Who is holding you back by gunpoint from doing the same thing?

Anyone can have several houses in different states. Do you expect the owner to pay 7 different state income taxes, which would most likely be higher than the federal tax rate? Golly gee.

:-).

Of course that’s only on the trailer. The tax for the land comes out of my $300/mo lot rent…

Mine is $94 once every three years. The taxes on my dock come out of my $1,000 a year.

“It helps to need little and owe nothing.”

Saw a drawing of an old scruffy dude sitting in a chair with his elbow on the arm of the chair and his hand holding his chin up. The caption read…..

I don`t know nothin
I don`t owe nothin
I don`t own nothin
So I`m perfectly hasppy

happy but now that I look at it haspy wouldn`t be a bad word. I looked it up and…..

Haspy birday - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_62aglSdwUs - 118k -

What does “1/43 in foreclosure” mean? The numbers always seem a little goofy to me. The data is supposedly from Realty Trac, and is the number of homes that receive a foreclosure filing during the month.

Is that the initial filing only? Or any filing?

These numbers don’t relate at all to how many homes are trapped in the process…Florida may have relatively few new filings, but a TON of homes that got a filing before and are trapped in the process…

In any event, your logic on the 12,457 makes sense to me…however, Foreclosure Radar notes less than 1,000 NOD’s filed in December in all of San Diego County…how do these two numbers reconcile?

My guess is that the less than 1,000 number is how many NOD’s are starting the process, and the 12,500 roughly are the total IN the process (that may have more than one filing as they go through the process).

This also tracks with Foreclosure Radar, that lists in SD County (rough numbers):
4,500 homes in preforeclosure
4,200 homes scheduled for sale
3,400 that are REO