Bits Bucket for February 19, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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I was hoping to catch some HBB discussion of Walmart Sales falling off the cliff. Death by a thousand cuts.
Or perhaps crushed by unseen falling prices?
Personally I havent been spending much in there. maybe people are starting to realize they dont need a bunch of stuff sitting around collecting the dust.
I’ve been buying a lot of used stuff off craigslist lately.
Wal-Mart, Dollar Tee, and the 99C Only clutter and over buying is out at our residence.
The Artic Classic Ice Milk at The Dlr Tree is excellent, btw.
AZdude
You are spot on. George Carlin nailed the stuff and your house thing. We just did a serious purge when we downsized.
“r”’s are a problem with my dying laptop keyboard. CL, here I come.
MacBeth
24 ozs of yummy for a buck. It lasts 4 days for 2 people in our home. What a deal! Same carbs as protein is also a plus.
Here Inch..I love the old apple M7803 pro keyboards…feels like a typewriter and spaced out well……I dont like the flat chicklet style….plus it has 2 usb ports… i just bought 3 for $40 locally
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=111013029975
aNYCdj
Thanks for the tip. I’ll check it out post treadmill this evening. After 10 years, my laptop keyboard is dying. For an HP that’s amazing.
Ice milk?! You mean the real ice milk from the 1950s-1970s?
Wow! Dollar Tree, here I come!
I haven’t had a taste of my beloved ice milk since that horrible crap called yogurt hit the scene.
Yogurt has always been awful.
MacBeth
The Cookies and Cream is truly great. Our snooty marketing brainwashed friends didn’t know what they were eating, and loved it.
For a buck we took the risk and were pleasantly surprised.
Frozen Yogurt has no live good bacteria, and yet people think it’s the cats meow. It’s fake health food. Marketers found their lemmings.
Ice milk?! You mean the real ice milk from the 1950s-1970s?
Common ice cream costs about $8 a half gallon in Brazil - Häagen-Dazs about $12 a pint. Yea…..that’s not a typo.
So I brought a $30 Hamilton Beech Ice cream maker from America and I make ice-milk from whole milk for about $2.50 a half gallon.
I have a fondness for homemade fruit smoothies. Freeze some bananas and strawberries, thaw in microwave for about 30 seconds, then frappe them in a blender with a little water until smooth. Better than a sorbet or frozen yogurt.
I’m on Oahu right now (little family vacation), and the Haupia by Roselani is to die for…can’t get it on the mainland…
“I’m on Oahu right now (little family vacation)…”
Sitting at home with a nasty cold on one of the coldest, nastiest San Diego weather days of the year, I can’t help but feel a little envious.
CA needs the rain. It is finally coming down here.
It’s pretty bad here in San Diego. Not just rainy but almost freezing!
“I have a fondness for homemade fruit smoothies. Freeze some bananas and strawberries, thaw in microwave for about 30 seconds, then frappe them in a blender with a little water until smooth. Better than a sorbet or frozen yogurt.”
I love them, too. ‘Cept I use frozen strawberries, bananas, yogurt, orange juice, ice cubes, and sugar. Delicious.
Scraped ice off of the windshield this morning.
“they dont need a bunch of stuff sitting around collecting the dust.”
Everything there has been pretty disposable pretty much since Sam died, so it won’t be sitting around unbroken for long. Before, their durable goods were not much worse than the average store, after, it was any trash the Chinese would throw in a shipping crate would pass their Q/A and sit on the shelf. My wife occasionally buys disposable goods from Walmart. Stuff you shouldn’t keep around after you use it, like toilet paper.
I believe they’re stuck between a rock and a hard place. From the high end they have intense pressure from Target, etc, for people who are willing to pay 10 cents more for a roll of paper towels in exchange for not having to wait in “peopleofwalmart.com” 15 minute checkout line. I don’t trust anything there that should be a durable or semi-durable good, and I don’t trust anything there that could be lead or melamine contaminated, and I won’t buy anything there that has been size/portion ravaged by inflation. That doesn’t leave much.
From the bottom they have real discounters like family dollar for the penny-wise pound-foolish crowd. Why pay $1.50 for a roll (of 100 sheets) paper towel at walmart, when you can pay $1 for a roll (of 50 sheets) paper towel at the “local” dollar store? My wife tried shopping at the dollar store until I made her stop, it was far more expensive long term, even if everything in the cart was “just a dollar each”. For a good laugh, if you’ve never been to a dollar store, give it a try, and look at all these tiny little inflation ravaged packages.
My rough view of the economics of the situation:
Target/Local Food Store: 200 sheets of TP for $3 wait in line 1 minute
Walmart: 100 sheets of TP for $1.75 wait in line for 15 minutes with proud members of peopleofwalmart.com
Dollar Store: 50 sheets of TP for $1 wait in line 2 minutes
for a good laugh calculate the cost per sheet. So people who do math go to Target/local food store/anything else, people who suck at math go to the dollar store “because its the cheapest”, who goes to walmart anymore, well I donno. I guess that’s their problem.
In the long run they’re kinda the Radio Shack of toilet paper, which probably sounds pretty weird.
vince
How true on ozs and weight of bargain retail chains. TP is one of the big box membership items we buy. But not always, we do the math.
I can’t speak for the math skills of Dollar Store vs. Target shoppers, but if need 7 different items and only have $10 until the next paycheck arrives and the only packages available at Target average $3 each (because you are buying 6 rolls of paper towel, not one, etc.), it doesn’t matter if you are paying more per unit or not. You need all those items. Getting them in the smaller packages is the solution. Could planning and shopping sales help? Yes, but gas costs money too. And if you are walking or using the bus, then you can’t carry larger quantities anyway.
Always the pragmatist. God love you.
“it doesn’t matter if you are paying more per unit or not.”
Yup thats how we keep the poor, poor.
give it a try, and look at all these tiny little inflation ravaged packages.
AZ Slim nailed it months ago when she related that in poor countries, like much of Africa, toiletries are sold in single-use packages. The profit per product is MUCH higher. Yet, the people can’t afford to NOT to pay that profit because they can’t put two the dimes together at once (probably literally) to buy the economy size bottle of shampoo. It’s a poverty trap.
In the black market on American streets, laundry detergent is a hot seller. In particular, Tide is such a popular target for shoplifting that stores have to keep a special eye on it. It’s even worse now that detergents come in those cellulose-encased individual packets.* Buy a big box of packets at Costco and sell the singles individually. I wonder how much profit that brings?
The concept pervades economics, and could even serve as a metric for wealth. e.g. if you can’t buy a house all at once, you have to buy 360 individual packets, so to speak, for a higher profit each.
————–
* I’m old enough to remember when the single load Tide container was simply the screw-cap for the larger bottle. People kept those sturdy caps to hold nails and paper clips.
For some inexplicable reason Tide has become currency for the drug trade.
This may give us some preview to what will happen when QE renders the dollar meaningless.
The concept pervades economics, and could even serve as a metric for wealth. e.g. if you can’t buy a house all at once, you have to buy 360 individual packets, so to speak, for a higher profit each.
The difference is that the ability to buy as 360 individual packets affects prices when it comes to housing, but not Tide.
I assume this is true because Tide is, in theory, infinitely available and every instance is the same. Not so with housing where location can/does matter.
For some inexplicable reason Tide has become currency for the drug trade.
———————————–
Its not just Tide; anything grocery stores sell that you cant buy with food stamps can be used as currency in the ghetto.
But you can’t buy Tide (easily) with food stamps, can you?
Plus I thought it was limited to Tide, or at least that Tide is the preferred currency.
We go to the dollar store for birthday cards and other cards as they are 2for a dollar and you pay a lot more any where else. Also the cheapest place for that 9 volt battery for the smoke alarm.
ron
Next time, try Dollar Tree Artic Classics Ice Milk. 24oz for a buck. The cookies and cream means an extra hour a week on the treadmill for this aging body, but it’s that good.
Also the cheapest place for that 9 volt battery for the smoke alarm.
The smoke alarm is the LAST place I would use a cheap battery.
All brands of battery work pretty much the same. There is no reason to pay more for premium batteries.
The smoke alarm is the LAST place I would use a cheap battery.
+1; I thought the same exact thing, oxy…
Engineers here: Is alkaline really better?
Thanks -
Stupid, obvious observation, but dang the dollar store is cheap.
There’s one in our new nabe (the neighborhood we just left was wayyy to gentrified to have something like a dollar store next to the wine bar and electric bike shop) and I am continually amazed at what the dollar store carries.
If you want it to last, then don’t bother, but things like garbage bags, cleaning products, etc.
We need a lawnmower and edger and I’m going to hunt for it on CraigsList. A decent lawmower is $300-$500 new.
The Dollar Store passed the 4,400 store mark a while ago. I am picky about my purchases there. You can create clutter, and we just cut our sq ft in half.
I love their placemats, and their dishes and glassware all pass the Prop 65 need for no signage. Libby is made in the USA, and their dishes are lead-free. I wrote the housewares buyer and actually got an email back. Great firm.
Where are you? I have a lawn mower and edger and weed whacker combo I’d offer under $150 ’cause I’m old and tired.
They are all in far better condition than I am.
Have a great gardener. $150 would pay for 2+ months of service and add space to my garage.
Win, Win!!!
So call me, maybe -
I’ve been buying a lot of used stuff off craigslist lately.
My motto: If you can’t get it used off craigslist, you don’t need it.
My motto: If you can’t get it used off craigslist, you don’t need it.
Can’t do it. I guess I am one of those germaphobes. For me house and autos have been the exceptions so far. Then again I don’t “need” a lot of stuff. I am guessing even Craig’s list is littered with useless crap.
I don think anyone is buying shower curtains and toilet seats off CL. Got Bleach?
I just sold my motorcycle last week on CL. I got $400 more than I pd for it 6 yrs ago.
Now I want a new toy, a 97 vette. They go for about $5k and get 28 mpg if you have a light foot.
Used or stolen?
Tax refunds are running late this year due to Congress.
“Tax refunds are running late this year due to Congress.”
Got mine last week.
You couldn’t file until Jan 28, so that is pretty darn quick.
“You couldn’t file until Jan 28, so that is pretty darn quick.”
TurboTax On-line.
We have an easy financial picture; no losses or windfalls, but we do have healthy medical deductions. They’ve never blinked.
The payroll tax hike takes a bite out of disposable income for people who live paycheck-to-paycheck, which I assume most Wal-mart shoppers are.
Retail
U.S. consumers hit by one-two punch
Reuters
Published Wednesday, Feb. 13 2013, 6:56 PM EST
Last updated Wednesday, Feb. 13 2013, 6:57 PM EST
Higher payroll tax and gas prices are hitting the American shopper in the wallet and slowing retail sales.
Welcome to the recoveryless recovery.
No, not really.
The hike barely affects anyone making 50k or less.
I don’t think you understand the payroll tax.
People making $50K or less get the full 2% of gross paycheck impact. At $50K it is a bit less than $20 a week.
Only if you work for a hedge fund.
Thats right Pbear…When looking at Wal-mart its all about disposable monthly income….Its not just the tax hike either…Its “everywhere”….Utility bills…Gasoline….Insurance (assuming you have any)…Car repair (assuming you have a car)…Food….
Collectively, they are shrinking the disposable income of the wal-mart crowd…
Yeah, but a 70% consumer economy doesn’t need consumers. It’s a totally new economic paradigm or some sh*t, just like Florida real estate circa 2005.
You guys know that gas purchases are included in the retail sales numbers, right? Assuming people spend all their disposable income, an increase in gas prices is just a shift from one type of retail sale to another.
The payroll tax increase is an impact. So would rent increases. I think that utilities are excluded from retail sales, though I don’t know the exact definition they use for utilities. And, if you don’t assume that people are spending everything they have, if you assume that people are saving a bit more or paying down their debt more, that would also show up in the numbers.
“Assuming people spend all their disposable income, an increase in gas prices is just a shift from one type of retail sale to another.”
Exactly. So for folks who spend a large share of their disposable income on gasoline and Wal-mart purchases, a $20/week drop in income coupled with gas prices that go up on a daily basis could result in a large shift in consumption spending away from Wal-mart towards the gas station.
I thought that Wal-mart sells gas. Or is that Sam’s Club? I know BJ’s sells gas.
Costco sells gas. Don’t know about Wal-mart — never go there.
Our local Walmarts don’t sell gas. Sam’s Club does.
It sux to be Wal-mart during a period of high unemployment, stagnant wages and ever-spiraling gasoline prices.
REGION’S GAS PRICES KEEP CLIMBING
A gallon of regular averages $4.26, up 57 cents in a month
By Morgan Lee
12:01 a.m.Feb. 19, 2013
Updated5:02 p.m.Feb. 18, 2013
Southern California gasoline prices continued their upward surge over the Presidents Day holiday weekend.
The average price for a gallon of regular grade gasoline in San Diego climbed on Monday to $4.26 a gallon, up from $4.15 last week.
Local prices have climbed 57 cents in just a month — though the average was still well below October’s all-time high of $4.72 a gallon.
The national gas price average rose to $3.73 a gallon on Monday from $3.30 a month ago.
…
It sux to be Wal-mart during a period of high unemployment, stagnant wages and ever-spiraling gasoline prices.
Ironic, isn’t it?
They seemed to be doing so well during the beginning of the contraction, as buyers became more cost-sensitive, and more people moved down-scale in the purchases.
Is it really the case that the pain just got to be too much?
Seems almost too simple of an explanation.
All the “needs” are sucking as much as they can, and the “wants” ALL think that what they produce is best of breed. It is marketed and priced accordingly (I’ve especially noticed this in outdoor gear).
Choose your utilities AND hobbies wisely, because seemingly gone are the days, even for those in middle incomes, when you could pretty much do it all, and do it affordably.
“…hobbies…”
Playing the violin has always worked well for me, especially since I am good enough to get payed on occasion. I’ve reported Schedule C earnings every year for three decades, but also written off quite a bit of income that I invested in expensive equipment. I enjoy playing, so the tax angle is icing on the cake.
Playing the violin has always worked well for me, especially since I am good enough to get payed on occasion. I’ve reported Schedule C earnings every year for three decades, but also written off quite a bit of income that I invested in expensive equipment. I enjoy playing, so the tax angle is icing on the cake.
CIBT plays the violin? Well, I’m about to learn how to sing. Something I’m really looking forward to.
My neighborhood Japanese mechanic just raised his labor price from $60 to $90 per hour.
Unless they have shoved a turbocharger or supercharger up their collective ass, why should we expect lower labor costs because of lowered labor time vs. higher rates per hour. Efficiency -
??
$90 per hour is still cheap in my neck of the woods.
My local dealer wanted $100 for a 5-min repair job, a couple of years ago. I didn’t hire him. Did it myself in 10 minutes, which includes the time it took me to find my screwdriver & wash my hands.
I know plenty of people who shop at WalMart yet don’t live paycheck-to-paycheck. I am one of them.
On the other hand, there are likely plenty of people living paycheck-to-paycheck that shop at places like Target, Kohls, Best Buy and Neiman-Marcus as well.
It would be interesting to learn the percentage of paycheck-to-paycheck people shopping at all sorts of different places.
My gut says the differences among the “classes” of stores mayj not be as high as commonly believed. Then again, I could be very wrong.
“I am one of them.”
My condolences.
Back when we were making over $165K combined, and banked 1/2 our net, enjoying a 4,000 sq ft home, we shopped all the bargain retain chains.
Today we still do, but now we don’t shop for $10,000 bedrm suites either. We’re poor folk now.
When we find a true value, we don’t worry about image or the low-lives surrounding us. We block out that life experience. We aren’t taking home the other customers or the visual merchandising.
I like a true bargain. Grew up dirt poor, and so did my EE other half. I have friends who shop where it makes them “feel” upper middle. Good for them. It’s not us.
The psychology is retailing is interesting. Paco Underhill has made $30K a speech discussing why we buy, what makes us go for it, signage, chain positioning (image and value) in the consumer’s mind.
Shopping Center Mgmt School (former employer paid for it) made me aware of the game of retail on our minds.
“A Call To The Mall”, “Why We Buy” are books I have on my shelf.
Ever read “Affluenza”?
Not that it’s any of my/our business, but in response to your other post, what changed such that you are no longer “making over $165k combined”? Choice/change of careers? Life/sh*t/lucky ducky happens?
sleepless_near_seattle
Husband got laid off and then got diagnosed w/Glaucoma, and had numerous surgeries to save his eyesight. I then got laid off in a REIT merger. I mean, a Tsunami hit us. Luckily, we had money saved, paid off cars, and a plan for housing.
Now we are the happiest ever in a paid off modest home. I am looking for work, but this time, a middle sized commercial firm. I don’t want to travel or have major stress. My priorities changed. Self employment isn’t my “flavor”.
Thanks, inch. I actually think I know the story. It seems you are another who has changed names recently. I’m not on here as much lately so I can’t keep ‘em straight anymore.
Sounds like you’ve weathered it pretty well all things considered. We’re coming to the same conclusion as well…that lower paying jobs and a slower lifestyle might be the way to go.
My best to you and your husband.
“Then again, I could be very wrong.”
Huh.
Wal-Mart Grocery Shopper less Affluent, Younger
The Media Audit FYI
November, 2011
…
The study further reveals that despite some of Wal-Mart’s past attempts to attract higher income shoppers, the percent of its customer base who are in lower income groups is actually growing, while the percent of its customer base who are in higher income groups is shrinking. According to the same study, the percent of weekly Wal-Mart grocery shoppers earning below $25,000 has increased by 20.8%, while the percent of its weekly shoppers earning below $15,000 has increased by 25% over the past five years. Presently, more than half of Wal-Mart’s grocery shoppers earn less than $50,000 in household income, while nearly one in five shoppers earn less than $25,000.
Furthermore, the study reveals an increase in the percent of shoppers who are in the younger demographic age groups. For example, 16.6% of Wal-Mart’s grocery shoppers are 18 to 24 years old, compared to 15.8% five years ago, representing a 5% increase in the percent of its grocery shoppers who are between 18 and 24 years of age. The percent of Wal-Mart grocery shoppers who are 25 to 44 years old has increased by 15% during the same time period. Among its grocery shopper base in 2010, 50.1% are 25 to 44, compared to 43.3% in 2006.
…
It could be because Walmart has been expanding into urban areas.
Walmart shoppers are predominantly young women–63 percent. Nearly half have kids, and 51 percent earn more than $60,000. Shoppers under age 34 are close to half the customer base.
http://m.cbsnews.com/storysynopsis.rbml?pageType=moneywatch&catid=43940116&feed_id=76&videofeed=43
there are likely plenty of people living paycheck-to-paycheck ??
I suspect there is a lot more than we would expect….
Outside of the HBB (where everyone is richer, smarter, prettier) there is this place called America (Paul Simon even wrote a song about it once) where half of its workforce earn less than $500/week.
The squad reiterates its correct prediction that within a few decades less than 15% of this country will enjoy a middle class or better standard of living.
The future belongs to Lucky Ducky!
Outside of the HBB (where everyone is richer, smarter, prettier)
I’m only prettier because you can’t see me over a text-only blog.
‘where everyone is richer, smarter, prettier’
And we travel around the world doing good for the environment.
And we travel around the world doing good for the environment.
LOL, Ben!
One of my favorite lines ever…
Last night my wife and attended a reception for the new director of the Old Globe Shakepeare Theater in Balboa Park, Barry Edelstein. Some long-time subscriber gushed about a performance of Macbeth she had attended fifteen years ago, to which Edelstein responded that it is bad luck to ever mention ‘Macbeth’ out loud. Each subsequent reference made was to ‘the Scottish play,’ which I found quite amusing.
I buy motor oil at Walmart
cheaper than pep boys
Me too, Penzoil Synthetic
and cleaning supplies.
but I still hate the place.
I like Wal-Mart and Ross. Just picked up a nice hamper for $30 less than everywhere else at Ross tonight. Good value. Since when did hampers start costing $40-$100. That’s highway robbery. What is the slave wages costing the distributor? $2.00?
Our hamper was 20 yrs old. It was past its prime years ago.
I was assured by Mitt Romney that the payroll tax does not exist and those freeloaders are living tax free.
The 47 percent are destined to live tax-free in Mitt’s head forever.
“The payroll tax hike takes a bite out of disposable income for people who live paycheck-to-paycheck, which I assume most Wal-mart shoppers are.”
Whoomp!! There It Is
The only thing I see here with WalMart is they are mainly selling clothes and groceries, very little selection of anything else.
very little selection of anything else
And at our local Wally Mart yesterday, no selection of ammunition.
No .22LR, no .223, no 9mm, no .40, no .38 special, no .357, and no 7.62×39.
And at our local Wally Mart yesterday, no selection of ammunition.
I’m seeing this everywhere I shop for guns/ammo: from the big box retailers like Walmart, Dicks, and Bass Pro to the three local gun dealers I frequent.
The only ammo I’ve been able to consistently purchase at retail is .45ACP. Good thing I picked up a Sig Sauer P220, as all my friends who have 9mm and .40 Glocks, Sigs, and S&W’s are SOL. You can still find ammo for sale privately on places like Northeastshooters dot com, but at generally inflated prices.
For what it’s worth, two of the smaller gun dealers I know told me they can’t get anything from their suppliers. Either there is nothing to allocate or only the large volume retailers are getting allocated. If this doesn’t end soon, I predict many smaller shops will have to shut down for lack of inventory and cash flow…
” If this doesn’t end soon, I predict many smaller shops will have to shut down for lack of inventory and cash flow…”
This doesn’t exactly make sense. Yes, guns/ammo are hard to find right now, but, from what I understand, it’s not a shortage of ammo/guns being made, more a massive upswing in demand for these products. Small retailers should be doing better in this environment (no stock, everything they can get is flying off the shelves), not worse? Or am I missing something? Are the manufacturers cutting back production of guns/ammo as well?
If the volume turnover at the big retailers is enough to use up all their production, why wouldn’t the manufacturers sell them everything? It simplifies distribution and billing. And as long as they can sell everything to make (and more) they won’t be pushing for volume discounts. Does it screw over small retailers that you have a long relationship with? Yeah. But it saves you a few bucks on the costs side, so you don’t care about that.
Or am I missing something? Are the manufacturers cutting back production of guns/ammo as well?
Based on my discussions with the small retailers, they can’t get any inventory from their suppliers. No inventory means no sales, so they definitely have a cash flow problem… and they are getting nervous.
Manufacturers have cut back on some things… AR15’s is a good example, as no company wants to be stuck with inventory they can’t sell if AR15’s are banned. I think the problem is that the distributors are allocating to the high-volume stores first, so the little guy gets nothing because the high-volume stores are increasing their orders to deal with the high demand. The other part of this is manufacturer’s are slow to ramp production because they don’t want a lot of overcapacity once demand dies down.
People are paying insane prices for ammo. My local Wally world is out of everything except .30-06, and some big bore hunting rifle ammo (.300 Winchester)
.30-06? What a co-inky-dink. That’s what my Garand shoots.
Cheapest box of 20 is under $19 bucks. $1/round for 5.56mm is laughable/insane.
You would think the ammo manufacturers would be running double shifts to meet demand and cash in on this demand blip. Does ammo have a shelf life?
Not as long as it’s stored properly.
That’s what’s really peculiar about the whole thing- ammo manufacturers have not been able to meet demand for years. Something is amiss.
They why don’t they increase production, and reap the reward for doing so?
They why don’t they increase production, and reap the reward for doing so?
That is an excellent question. I know if I had the means, I would open an ammunition factory… given the number of firearms in this country, not to mention our almost constant war footing. I mean, does DHS really need 40 million hollow point .40 cal bullets?
Maybe the dearth of ammo also has to do with “they” trying to force the smaller, less “compliant” outlets out of business by limiting the supply? Buy all the guns you like, but unless you’ve a reloader and a good supply of powder, you’re not going to shooting much after your stash is gone. And by the way, we’ll need some ID for what we’ll sell you….
Back door gun control?
Side note: The Walton family wealth totals around 120 billion dollars: http://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/2013-02-18/aaa
Side note? They are collectively what is wrong with America. What a disgraceful bunch of greedy evil bas****s.
Seconded.
Are you from France? I thought their revolution was for equality of outcome while ours was for equal justice and rights, which meant some people could become very wealthy if they want.
From yesterday:
Joesmith said: “I think about what Oxide said to me once, that someday “I’ll get mine” meaning I’ll get sick or someone in my life will get sick or something really financially bad will happen. ”
Well I hope I didn’t say that you would actually get yours; I was just expressing the possibility. We should be careful about being smug, just in case we get ours someday.
We will all get ours one day. Sooner or later, that’s the difference, isn’t it?
Are the pieces getting bigger or is the bucket getting smaller?
are they encouraging speculative behavior once again?
I guess part of my point is, with a serious illness or disability even a couple million in the form of a family cushion could be spent very quickly. As combo said, there are a vanishingly small number of people who could withstand a serious, protracted illness or disability and still live the good life.
On that note, one of the things I’m going to do in the next month or two is look into the best ways to protect against assets getting sucked dry in the event of any illness in the family. I have 3 brothers so they have to be included in that as well. Luckily my wife is an only child. We all have good health insurance via work, but health insurance doesn’t cover everything and it’s probably relatively cheap to make sure we’re protected against those things.
I’m also thinking about “key person” insurance. Like getting my dad to make us all “employees” so we can take out life insurance on each other so we absolutely know we’re protected.
Like getting my dad to make us all “employees” so we can take out life insurance on each other so we absolutely know we’re protected.
Sounds like an insurance fraud. Don’t you have to “work” at least 30 hrs or more (FT) to qualify in the “key person” insurance? I don’t know the laws….but I guess Romney did it already, so it’s ok?
Personal incopration and its perks for immediate family is one of the very generous loopholes enjoyed by the welathy.
Family can be put on the household corp payroll without any qualifications, restrictions or stipulations.
Your assumption is incorrect. You can use insurance to do many things–protect a revenue stream, pay off any outstanding debts, or compensate your for loss of a “key person”. A key person doesn’t have to be a full time employee at all, in fact it is not even close. State law varies (insurance law is mostly state law). But insurance companies are the kind of “invisible hand of the free market” companies that go way out of their way to protect people who have a lot of assets. Never forget, the “I” in “FIRE” is for insurance. Insurance companies are very, very aggressive and they employ a lot of lawyers and actuaries. The mental picture people have of some simple, old school insurance company? That is way off the mark.
Insurance companies get their overhead paid by middle income people protecting limited and boring assets. They actually exist, though, to serve the interests of tax-avoiding asset owners. Just another transfer of wealth from W-2 people earning their income to True Capitalist Job Creators (TM).
They actually exist, though, to serve the interests of tax-avoiding asset owners. Just another transfer of wealth from W-2 people earning their income to True Capitalist Job Creators (TM).
Every time you post, your Marxist/Communist/Progressive agenda becomes more apparent. How is it a “transfer of wealth” when middle class life insurance customer’s revenue pay’s for the day to day expenses of a life insurance company, allowing said company to pursue more resource intensive, less reliable, but more profitable income streams from the wealthy?
Or in your Communist ideology, are For-profit corporations supposed to give back all their profits to the state?
Marxist? Communist? Get real.
This is why I bailed out of the GOP. If you don’t subscribe to no holds barred Capitalism, you’re a commie.
If you don’t subscribe to no holds barred Capitalism, you’re a commie.
Sorry, but the crap Joe Smith is spouting screams communist, marxist, socialist, or some such:
(Insurance Companies) exist to serve the interests of tax-avoiding asset owners. Just another transfer of wealth from W-2 people earning their income to True Capitalist Job Creators (TM).
Tell me In Colorado, what in this statement doesn’t cry communist? Is it the disdainful comments regarding “tax-avoiding asset owners”? Is it the toungue-in-cheek, disparaging remarks regarding “True Capitalist Job Creators”? Or maybe the way he portrays those hard-working proletariat wage earners?
Maybe you haven’t heard, but the recent bombing of a US Embassy in Turkey was credited to the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party, a Marxist group. The police have rounded up doctors, lawyers, Union and government workers, all who supported the party. The fight against these leftists is real, regardless of whether you wish see it. See any similarities to those on the left who post here? I do…
too bad we dont have real capitalism, it might actually work.
we have crony capitalism, too big to fail, TARP….etc….
socialized loses, privatized gains… sound like the GOP is a bunch of hypocrites.
too bad we dont have real capitalism, it might actually work.
we have crony capitalism, too big to fail, TARP….etc….
socialized loses, privatized gains… sounds like the GOP is a bunch of hypocrites.
Avocado, wasn’t it “real” capitalism that gave us Dickensian London and the Gilded Age in America? Real capitalism allows for non-stop mergers until there can be only one of every industry. Even if you build a better product, your small start-up is easily squelched by the economies of scale of Big Corp. Results: A monopoly of mediocrity rather than diverse meritocracy. And a whale of a wealth disparity which gave us Scrooges and Little Match Girls.
It wasn’t until Teddy Roosevelt broke up some “combinations” and Franklin Roosevelt instituted more protections and public projects that we saw a middle class.
sounds like crony capitalism
“…the crap Joe Smith is spouting screams communist, marxist, socialist…”
What does this ideological hysteria add to the conversation, let alone to your dwindling credibility here? Joe Smith isn’t talking about you and your sad little enterprises, he’s talking about the very real and opaque machinations of multi-generational Family Money, something you’ve obviously never dealt with (and he, as a corporate tax attorney, has), and which does indeed appropriate the monies of middle class insureds to its own foundational interests — often at taxpayer expense.
Instead of getting all lathered up over the rhetoric you hear on the radio, why not consider what he’s trying to tell you about where the bulk of your taxes really go and who they really benefit?
Hint: It’s not “unwed” mothers and immigration cheats. And this isn’t 1950’s Hungary, it’s America — where the socialists are all TBTF.
How is it a “transfer of wealth” when middle class life insurance customer’s revenue pay’s for the day to day expenses of a life insurance company, allowing said company to pursue more resource intensive, less reliable, but more profitable income streams from the wealthy? “
When the middle class isn’t given a choice.
ALL business transactions are a 2 way street and when they aren’t, it’s theft. Only a thief thinks the buyer has no right to profit as well from the transaction.
Maybe you haven’t heard, but the recent bombing of a US Embassy in Turkey was credited to the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party, a Marxist group. The police have rounded up doctors, lawyers, Union and government workers, all who supported the party.
I guess that they haven’t heard that we have a socialist president, eh?
What does this ideological hysteria add to the conversation, let alone to your dwindling credibility here?
Who is losing credibility, other than Joe, the proclaimed conservative espousing liberal group-think in many of his posts? Given you didn’t/couldn’t counter my points regarding his statement sounding very Marxist, I assume the ad hominem attack in the above post and further down was done to try and discredit my own posts.
Joe Smith isn’t talking about you and your sad little enterprises
Again, with the ad hominem attack. My startup never entered the conversation, but you brought it up in an attempt to do what? Discredit capitalism? Discredit my own attempts at entrepreneurship? Either way, your disdain does nothing to deter my own efforts at achieving real wealth creation.
he’s talking about the very real and opaque machinations of multi-generational Family Money, something you’ve obviously never dealt with
Indeed, I have never dealt with multi-generational wealth. Is that supposed to be detraction from my support of the ideal of capitalism as the basis for our economic system as opposed to the tyranny of mediocrity that is the basis of socialism? Without capitalism, no one would be able to achieve generational wealth… but to a socialist, maybe that’s the point.
The tyranny of mediocrity is the end result of rampant capitalism, too, NE. Monopoly and oligarchy aren’t systems renowned for their innovation. And monarchy/aristocracy do pretty well in the multi-generational assets department. Socialism encompasses many political systems as well as economic ones, and progressivism can become regressive. In their “pure” form, all can become totalitarian.
If you could refrain from labeling and look to the dynamic, perhaps you wouldn’t be so fearful? Communism and capitalism are a continuum, and ultimately they’re circular.
Divide and conquer; it’s the oldest trick of the tyrant. Free your head!
“We all have good health insurance via work, but”
That can change in an instant. Either fired, downsized, or the execs want a bigger bonus so its budget HMOs for all.
Be careful making long term financial plans in an ultra short term market. Completely outta your control, your bro (or you) could be (absolutely or effectively) uninsured tomorrow.
My current employer offers (minimal) life insurance for free. Its pretty cheap because anything long term / chronic will result in your getting fired for not attending work, of course, long before a benefit could be paid.
I know it can change in an instant. Which is why this needs to be looked at. Two of my brothers also now have children and I’m 30 so I’m up next. If something happens with a child that would be the worst.
And, if you can barely afford insurance now, just wait for this…
http://azstarnet.com/news/science/health-med-fit/health-care-law-backers-now-fear-costly-surprise/article_0859a672-89a1-5dd1-8499-086f53a84a2d.html
“The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that insurance premiums for those who buy coverage on their own probably will be 10 percent to 13 percent higher in 2016, in large part because health plans will be much more comprehensive.”
-from the article
Speaking for myself, that will be a slower rate of increase than what I’ve had the last few years, wherein my rates went up about 5% a year. Especially if it somehow makes my plan more comprehensive. And especially if it makes it impossible for my insurers to yank it away from me or jack up the price outrageously if I become seriously ill, which was always my fear under the old regime.
I almost got mine last night. Just missed getting hit by a car. Wasn’t on my bike — all I was doing was crossing a street.
Slim
Thank God you’re ok.
Wasn’t the only near-disaster of yesterday. During the middle of the day, I was out in the front yard, pulling weeds.
At one point, I was weeding near a fishhook barrel cactus. And then I slipped.
Managed to regain my footing before I plopped my posterior right down on that cactus.
ISTR that’s what happened to our beloved Olygal.
No, she wasn’t hit by a car.
Do you know what happened? I seem to recall the press report was just an ‘accident near her home’. I wasn’t aware we ever determined what it was.
Thats what I recall Alpha…Ben found the info…Maybe he can expand on just what happened…
I got the story at a meetup… I’d rather leave it to Ben…
She fell down an embankment behind her home that was between her house and the ocean if I recall correctly.
At the time I asked her family via email if it was OK for me to post something so everyone at the HBB would know. I think they were so hurt they didn’t want it all splashed on the internet, so they asked I didn’t go into all the details. But I don’t think it would hurt to tell a little more now. I’m not saying this is what happened, but it’s what I remember of what I was told. There were a series of declines to the beach near her house. The way up and down was a series of ladders. She was coming back up a ladder, fell and was injured. She passed away at a hospital a short time later.
Thanks, Ben. I’m glad to hear she was doing something she loved (going to/from the beach) when it happened.
Maybe she had a geoduck in her hand.
Maybe she had a geoduck in her hand.
Probably more than one. Hard to climb with those in hand—slippery little buggers.
We should be careful about being smug, just in case we get ours someday.
Or as an HBB’er mis-quoted just the other day:
“Pride goes before the fall.”
For the believers in the “set” cost of owning:
Just when you thought it was safe to sell your home again, along comes our cash-strapped state government to mess things up!
Gov. Deval Patrick’s bevy of proposed tax hikes includes plans to tax whatever gains home sellers manage to eke out in a real estate market just starting to turn around.
The governor’s proposed state budget includes plans to forced home sellers to cough up more than $239 million with a 6.25 percent tax on home-sale gains.
That could mean a tax hit of $4,256 for the average seller. And that number could top $30,000 for a married couple who sells their home after accruing decades of gains worth a half a million or more.
http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/blogs/renow/?p1=RENav_Blog
Somebody has to pay for it.
The University of Massachusetts dominated the list of state employees who made more than $100,000 last year, with 49 of the top 50 spots held by doctors, administrators, and coaches.
Overall, nearly 7,700 state employees across a variety of departments earned $100,000 or more, up from about 6,900 employees in 2011. In total, the state employs about 100,000 full- and part-time workers.
Governor Deval Patrick, who earns $139,832, could not even crack the top 1,500. He was clustered in with State Police officers, professors, and a dentist.
Of those making more than $100,000, about 2,500 were UMass employees. The State Police had nearly 1,600 earning six figures. The list does not include quasi-public agencies such as the Massachusetts Port Authority.
http://www.boston.com/politicalintelligence/2013/02/15/once-again-the-state-list-top-wage-earners-dominated-umass-employees/1djyaPUPP95bnMxi15YEKO/story.html
Can you think of a particular reason why real estate should be exempt from some form of tax on capital gains? That exemption on the federal level is part of the government subsidy of ownership of real estate that is usually roundly criticized on this board.
I think it’s a good idea and would slow down some of that Flipper mentality.
and would slow down some of that Flipper mentality ??
To qualify for the exemption from capital gains tax you must owner occupy as your primary residence for two out of the last five years…Flippers don’t qualify typically…
And flippers are known to be an upstanding and ethical bunch.
And flippers are known to be an upstanding and ethical bunch ??
Rule #1….Don’t mess with the IRS or Cali. FTB for that matter..
Rule #2….See Rule #1….
Any real estate transfer carries a HUD statement that goes directly to the IRS with the sellers social security number or Tax ID number….
See: Casey Sarin
See: Casey Sarin ??
Casey was before Dodd/Frank….
Polly;
Can you think of a particular reason why real estate should be exempt from some form of tax on capital gains? That exemption on the federal level is part of the government subsidy of ownership of real estate that is usually roundly criticized on this board…
Steve J;
I think it’s a good idea and would slow down some of that Flipper mentality…
scdave;
To qualify for the exemption from capital gains tax you must owner occupy as your primary residence for two out of the last five years…Flippers don’t qualify typically…
Steve J;
And flippers are known to be an upstanding and ethical bunch..
scdave;
Rule #1….Don’t mess with the IRS or Cali. FTB for that matter..
Rule #2….See Rule #1….
Any real estate transfer carries a HUD statement that goes directly to the IRS with the sellers social security number or Tax ID number….Due to Dodd/Frank…
Capital gains tax on a house is just an extra confiscatory kick in an era of engineered debasement of the currency.
Capital gains tax implemented on an asset that was held for years under tax haven rules is rather Ex Post Facto.
Of course not, but if you take a walk up to K Street NW I’m sure you can find plenty of lobbyists and conservative think tanks that will tell you a lot of *great* rationales.
I work about 3 blocks from CATO, I’m sure they can tell you all about how we must promote an “ownership society”.
Is it true you can just walk in (picture ID required, but you don’t have to work for them) and use the cafeteria at CATO? I think I’ve heard that about Brookings too.
Gosh, Polly, that would be fun if it was true. Wanna have a lunch meet-up at Cato to eavesdrop for any dirt?
I don’t know about the cafeteria, all I know is Cato has a beautiful all glass building. Built in the early 2000s IIRC. My top secret parking spot (no zone sticker needed) is a few blocks north of Cato just up 11th street.
at Cato to eavesdrop for any dirt?
Don’t think Cato has that much of a political power. Heritage on the other hand…..
“Can you think of a particular reason why real estate should be exempt from some form of tax on capital gains?”
But unlike other assets it is a depreciating asset and therefore all maintenance, taxes, etc to hold it should be subtracted from any taxable gains first.
But hell, since you want to tax everything that has a gain of any kind, let’s make it mandatory that everyone report to a government doctor at years end and be taxed on their weight increase.
why real estate should be exempt from some form of tax on capital gains ??
Lets take high priced silicon valley for an example….
Take reform takes away the capital gain exemption which I fully expect to happen…Its just a matter of when IMO….
So, lets take my elderly neighbors for example…They purchased in the 60’s…Paid about $60,000…lets say they put another $90,000. in improvements…Basis is now $150,000….
Want to downsize due to health and expenses….
Sales Price; $1,100,000….
Deduct basis $ 150,000….
Deduct all cost of sale (7%)$ 77,000….
Total gain on sale………. $ 873,000….
Taxes;
20% Cap Gain
13% State
3% OB_Care
Total = 36% on gain $314,000…
Add back in cost of sale $ 77,000…
Add 1% for repairs at sale $ 11,000… (may be a little light)
Total cost of sale = $402,000…
Now I ask you, if given any other choice would you pay $402,000. large to sell your house if you were them ??
P.S. Tax consequence may not be perfectly accurate but you get my drift…
Makes sense to take out a loan and default.
Makes sense to take out a loan and default ??
You got it half right….Take out a reverse mortgage…No payments and you receive the proceeds tax free…Die while still owning the house and you get a stepped-up basis and heirs will owe no tax on the sale at all, including on the $400,000. that you took out on a reverse mortgage….
Guess what my neighbors did ?? You notice a proliferation of reverse mortgage ad’s over the last couple of years ?? Now you know why…
But isn’t the first 500K (for a married couple) exempt from capital gains tax?
But isn’t the first 500K (for a married couple) exempt from capital gains tax ??
Yes it is but this thread was in the context of responding to Polly’s question above;
“Can you think of a particular reason why real estate should be exempt from some form of tax on capital gains” ?
But my question was why should the house be different than any other capital asset? The fact that it costs a bit more (the $77K fee and $11K of fix up costs) to sell than stocks or bonds is not an argument. Neither is the fact that you made up a lot of numbers that make it look like your hypothetical couple would have to pay a lot to cash in their “hard earned” gains from buying a house when interest rates were high and selling it when interest rates are low. Why should the sale of the HOUSE be exempt from the taxes that anyone else would pay?
“Can you think of a particular reason why real estate should be exempt from some form of tax on capital gains? ”
Not specific to RE, but all capital gains should be indexed for inflation before any “gains” kick in. Sure, I bought this stock in 1980 for 50 dollars and sold in 2012 for 100. So, in the government’s eye, I just made 50 dollars, taxable at 15%.
What did I really make? Most likely (if you use real inflation numbers) a loss.
Housing is supposed to appreciate roughly with inflation. So, it makes sense, if I buy for 100K today and sell for 200K 20 years from now, there’s no taxable gain there, that’s just the debasement of the currency. IMHO, gains on housing are mostly an illusion; sure, some people buy for 100K and sell 2 years later for 200K. It happens, but it’s a tiny fraction of the transactions.
For most people, they buy for 100K, put in 50K over 10 years (upgrades/repairs/etc) and then sell it for 200K. No gain there, just inflation and the cost of upkeep.
All long term capital gains should be linked to inflation. Housing shouldn’t be “special”, but, with the inflation linking, it would likely wind up capital gains exempt for most people.
There should not be any capital gains tax on anything. Nor income tax. Nor dividends tax, nor sales tax, nor property tax, nor corporate tax.
America got by well without taxes until 1913.
The worst scumbag in the world is the social engineer who masturbates at night thinking of how his tax scheme would mold people to do what he wants.
Taxation is theft.
Return to tariffs, which is what mostly funded the U.S. It is no coincidence that the U.S. was weak in the role of world cop before the so-called “progressives” made the above taxes permanent 100 years or so ago.
Not specific to RE, but all capital gains should be indexed for inflation before any “gains” kick in.
+1.
Index all capital gains for inflation.
Buy house now. Your house will bring many romantic opportunities later.
many romantic opportunities later
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPIxrzmatq0
Buy house now. Your house will bring many romantic opportunities later.
Of the prison variety?
“Of the prison variety?”
Where downsizing means paying a grossly inflated price for a cell of perpetual debt and depreciation.
I’m trying to decide whether to +1 Carl for that.
Depends on whether you like prison variety romantic opportunities.
Many romantic opportunities? Good grief, I bought my house almost nine years and the damn thing has been like saltpeter for every guy I know!
I’ve had a lot of game over responses from ladies regarding my living on a boat. Not just when they find out that I have a yacht, and that I am presently staying aboard, later when they ask me about my house and I repeat; “I live on a boat”.
Fortunately for me, when the response is positive, it is very enthusiastic.
So what is so emasculating about the Slim Ranch?
It may have something to do with Slim’s extremist attitude toward self-sufficiency. I developed it while bicycling along the highways and byways of the U.S. and Canada.
If something broke down, well, I was 100% in charge of fixing it. I couldn’t look all doe-eyed and helpless at some guy and expect him to do the job.
Back in civilization, I get livid at women who try to pull this “help me” thing. I mean, come on. Learning how to use tools in order to make and repair things is NOT that hard.
As for the men? Well, who knows. I guess a lot of them like to play the hero for needy women.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go prepare a home-made lunch, and then check on the garden and the compost bin. (There’s that self-sufficiency thing again.)
Back in civilization, I get livid at women who try to pull this “help me” thing.
I got very tired of that in the army and really took it out on a young woman one time. I felt bad later, though, because she was new to that environment and deserved a kinder response…she paid the price for years of other, more manipulative women that I’d watched and not said anything. But yes, it irked me a lot to see them use that to get out of things they didn’t want to do. That’s why I still have an issue with women in the military, and the latest issue, women in combat roles. If they were all like you and ahansen I wouldn’t have that problem.
If they were all like you and ahansen I wouldn’t have that problem.
Thanks, Carl!
And I second the nomination of ahansen. I’ve dealt with her outside of this group, and what a class act. She’s a great person.
We used to have a saying for our pseudo-hippy friends. And don’t get me wrong, i have been called a hippy, as I compost and use a clothes line.
There is a fine line between “white trash” and being a “hippy.”
It might be a CA thing.
In SB they call them Trustafarians. (trust fund kids pretending t o be “po folk.”
“In SB they call them Trustafarians.”
In college, we just called them “stoners”.
is that a bad thing or good?
If ya ask: Steve Jobs, John Stewart, Michael Phelps, Ted Turner, RIchard Branson, Stephen King, Arnold, and Mark Cuban…
Avacado,
If you’re asking me, it’s not a great thing (neither is drinking, smoking cigs, etc), but it’s not something that should be criminal either. I don’t think that we should hold MJ up as a “good thing”, it’s a vice, and like all vices, can have negative consequences. But, as negative habits go, smoking MJ is pretty darn benign in my book, there’s a whole list of things that I would say are much worse than that (obesity, liquor, cigs, hookers, etc).
If fact, in my book, there’s only a few recreational drugs out there that are actually probably more harmful than the legal drugs we have today. Heroin is up there in the harm category. Meth seems to be way up there too. But the vast majority of illegal drugs are, in fact, relatively safe compared to liquor/cigs.
That said, if I had a magic wand, I’d make remove all drug restrictions tomorrow. I’m a libertarian, regulating what people can put in their bodies is just counter to my thinking about the world. Inform people of the dangers, help those looking for help, let the rest figure it out for themselves.
+1 Overtaxed
later when they ask me about my house and I repeat; “I live on a boat”.
That actually strikes me as a good “filter”, Blue…
It reminds me of my vehicles…
I was talking to a recently separated mother of three who was saying it was virtually impossible to find a 3 bed / 2 bath appartment or house to rent that she could afford ($1,200 a month).
Posted: 9:58 p.m. Monday, Feb. 18, 2013
Investment firms buying up Florida foreclosures
By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Hedge funds and investment firms are buying up Florida foreclosures, beating out homebuyers and local flippers, while steering the state into what some fear is another real estate bubble.
The companies, including New York-based Blackstone Group and Lake Success Rentals, a partner of Toronto-based Tricon Capital Group, purchased an estimated 5,300 Florida homes last year that were in some stage of foreclosure, according to a report from RealtyTrac.
In Palm Beach County, RealtyTrac measured 425 purchases by firms buying multiple properties out of foreclosure and usually with the intent to rent them out until increasing property values can offer a substantial return on investment.
RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist said the buying trend accelerated around the second quarter of 2012 after billionaire business magnate Warren Buffett said he would buy up “a couple hundred thousand” single-family homes if he had a way to manage them.
But Blomquist warned that prices jacked up by the increased competition could lead to an artificial inflation.
“I expect Miami to be one of the fastest-growing cities in the next decade, and the opportunity to purchase homes for rental housing in the surrounding areas at a fraction of peak prices and replacement cost was very attractive to me,” said Lake Success co-founder Barry Bergman in a news release announcing the partnership.
Last month, Tricon announced the purchase of 550 homes in Charlotte, N.C., for $26 million.
Blomquist said RealtyTrac’s study compared active foreclosures against sales deed data and may not include all bulk buyers in an area.
Don Cameron, a real estate investor who owns a South Florida franchise of We Buy Ugly Houses, said he bought more than 100 homes last year, many of which were at foreclosure auction, but he is not included in RealtyTrac’s report.
Also not included is a Greenwich, Conn.-based company called SRP SUB, LLC, which has bought about 40 Palm Beach County homes at foreclosure auction since November.
Cameron said he noticed an increase in competition from the big-time investment firms and hedge funds about eight months ago. His company buys homes, renovates them and then sells them. He said he’s lost out on homes because the larger firms pay asking price, or higher.
“They just have loads of money and are paying maximum dollars for the properties then renting them out,” Cameron said. “Some people are really inflating the market right now.”
Single-family home prices in Palm Beach County increased about 10 percent in 2012 from the previous year to a median of $212,000. Condominium and townhome sale prices were up 13 percent last year to $88,000, according to the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches.
blackstone…buffet…fortuantely they are too big to fail.
Wait until that hurricane come thru. Buffet will make a fortune from the Fed payout.
Maybe Bruce will put on a concert for him.
“Maybe Bruce will put on a concert for him.”
+1 LOL!
maybe mat damon will speak too…
why did the phrase “useful idiot” just pop into my head.
“The companies, including New York-based Blackstone Group and Lake Success Rentals, a partner of Toronto-based Tricon Capital Group, purchased an estimated 5,300 Florida homes last year that were in some stage of foreclosure, according to a report from RealtyTrac.”
Ya gotta feel some level of sympathy for Florida lowlifes who have to compete with the likes of Blackstone Group for affordable digs.
The curious aspect of this from where I sit, across the country, is what makes the financial geniuses at Blackstone Group so certain they will be able to make money snapping up thousands and thousands of moldy foreclosure dumps in Florida swampland?
“what makes the financial geniuses at Blackstone Group so certain they will be able to make money snapping up thousands and thousands of moldy foreclosure dumps in Florida swampland?”
their political connections are telling them (buying the fact) that the fed will print money until the cows come home to support housing…and if the SHTF…they will just get bailed out.
they must know or have bought something…i have many years experience in real estate from the income tax perspective and have always wondered/asked why there were no single family housing REITs. I was always told because the managment of each individual house would be too costly and a friggin’ nightmare.
“I was always told because the managment of each individual house would be too costly and a friggin’ nightmare.”
That’s why I have to assume that pump-and-dump has to be a critical component of Blackstone’s investment strategy. I can’t imagine a bunch of snooty carpetbaggers from up North wanting to get mired down in the grubby details of Florida rental housing operations.
snooty carpetbaggers from up North wanting to get mired down in the grubby details of Florida rental housing operations.
Wouldn’t they just hire property managers?
i smell a realty show!
“Wouldn’t they just hire property managers?”
True, but they would also presumably be wise enough to dump their holdings before the point when the masses realize there is no money in residential rentals, beyond the capital gains angle.
True, but they would also presumably be wise enough to dump their holdings before the point when the masses realize there is no money in residential rentals, beyond the capital gains angle.
The key word in the above sentence is “wise.” And I doubt that such a word can be used to describe these in-VEST-ors.
Perhaps the strategy is as simple as the usual bubble buyer conviction that they will be able to grab the asset while its price is rising and cash out before the next crash?
Or am I missing something deeper (e.g. $40 bn / month in Fed MBS purchases has to end up in somebody’s pocket)?
“Or am I missing something deeper (e.g. $40 bn / month in Fed MBS purchases has to end up in somebody’s pocket)?”
The fix is in.
550 homes in Charlotte, N.C., for $26 million.
Average of $47K each. What is the average break-even point for a rental house in god-knows-what condition, in Charlotte? 3-4 years, assuming the tenant don’t trash the house further? That’s probably a dicey proposition for Blackstone. Maybe it’s a hoarding scheme to me.
This must be a HUGE comedown for high-flyers like Blackstone. Aren’t they accostomed to broking the sales of billion-collar companies and skimming millions in one deal? Now they have to do the hard werk of dealing with 550 different pesky, finicky physcial things, containing low-down stuff like toilets and wires — in podunk Charlotte, no less — just to bank a measly $11 mil profit. And take years to do it. They must long for the days of the “single transaction.”
I think it’s a simple matter of securing assets that generate an income stream in bulk, thus ensuring a sizable enough discount to ensure a profit. If you have deep pockets and a long time horizon, this seems like a good bet, especially if you assume the government will do everything it can to inflate it’s debt problem away…
If you have deep pockets and a long time horizon, this seems like a good bet ??
Especially when you can leverage in @ 10 year T-Bill rates + 1/2%….
” If you have deep pockets and a long time horizon, this seems like a good bet”
Doubt it. They will securitize the income stream and sell it as bonds. Long time frames are for people who want to muck around at the local political level and make sure that no one will grant additional rights to tenants.
Cantankerous post from last night
Feb 18th Financial Times article
In his State of the Union address to Congress last week, Barack Obama, US president, indicated that a post-crisis lurch to more stringent mortgage regulation could be reversed.
“Right now, overlapping regulations keep responsible young families from buying their first home. What’s holding us back? Let’s streamline the process, and help our economy grow,” he said.
Mr Obama’s words echoed a chorus from policy makers and housing industry executives who have argued that regulation is choking credit.
Those that learn from the past, are doomed to repeat it comes to mind.
The next Cantankerous post was about cover letters w/ your offer. We did that, were truly qualified to buy, and landed our deal. But we felt soiled. We beat out much higher offers. In reality, the house wasn’t going out FHA. They were dreaming and our receipts prove it.
You beat out the higher offers bc you paid cash, not because of a cover letter.
The house across the street from me sold very quickly and for 20k off asking because the guy came in all-cash in the middle of winter (worst time to list a house).
joe
Partly. But we were in the running with another buyer w/ conventional financing. The seller told me after she liked me and thought we’d fit into the neighborhood better. (She is friends w/ all the neighbors.)She was the legal seller, not the former owner, who was unable to function on her own behalf. So granted, you are somewhat right.
I was lucky no cash offers on my house. I made the offer in Jan last year and closed in June. Conventional loan 20 % down. No problems there.
Bank would not fix anything because by the time I closed house bidding wars were on and the Bank knew it. 2nd asked for more money did not get it.
Replaced patio cover, replaced Balcony, Redid brick patio made it bigger and level again.
Killed all the grass in the back yard and have basketball hoop back there for the kids.
Houses always need maintance. All these Blackstone Single familiy rentals will turn to powder in 20 years and blackstone won’t care they depreicate them to zero anyway. Then the new age of Ikea sized apartments will go up in there place.
“Redid brick patio made it bigger and level again. ”
Cactus
Would you like to share your brick guy’s name? Ready to do a front walkway to the front door.
The house across the street from me sold very quickly and for 20k off asking because the guy came in all-cash in the middle of winter (worst time to list a house).
This is exactly how I bought my last house.
We offered in mid/late November via a lowball offer and shockingly got a counter offer much better than anticipated. As I said yesterday, it was an estate sale and the nephews wanted their money because they were around retirement age themselves.
“Right now, overlapping regulations keep responsible young families from buying their first home. What’s holding us back? Let’s streamline the process, and help our economy grow,” he said.
If you have 20%, looking for a loan 3X income or less and have reasonable credit, I challenge anyone to show me a situation like that where the individual “couldn’t find credit”. This market is fantastic for responsible buyers (from a credit perspective anyway), loans are available and shockingly cheap, and thanks to the Internet, far more accessible to the layman than anytime in the past.
I have said it a million times, but the “credit is hard to get” mantra oft repeated is a total red herring. Credit is fine. Income sufficient to support the loan is the thing that’s hard to get!
“I have said it a million times, but the “credit is hard to get” mantra oft repeated is a total red herring.”
Yes. My wife and I make 48K total, got a 150,000 loan at the end of 2010, from a local credit union in Sac. 750+ credit rating and job history are a must, but plenty of people still have that. Maybe just not the ones who want to buy a home!
oops.
“Those that DON’T learn from the past, are doomed to repeat it.” - There, fixed it.
I need java.
I have finally found actual proof of a cut back being made in military spending, presumably made in anticipation of the sequestration. I suspect that our nation’s security will be destroyed by this cut:
http://www.usarmyband.com/anniversary/index.html
Due to limitations on government funds, The U.S. Army Band “Pershing’s Own” must cancel its Anniversary Concert at The Music Center at Strathmore this year. All tickets distributed to the Strathmore show are null and void and may be discarded.
We will instead present four (4) performances of our annual spectacular at Brucker Hall on Fort Myer in Arlington, Virginia:
Saturday, March 2 at 2PM **
Saturday, March 2 at 7PM **
Sunday, March 3 at 2PM
Sunday, March 3 at 7PM
[If you want to watch it on the web, follow the link I provided. There is a link to a webcast on that page.]
Well that doesn’t even cover the cost of a single drone aircraft.
Depends. I’m not sure how much it costs to rent the main hall at Strathmore. It is a very nice space for concerts.
It’s probably fairly expensive, I’ve noticed that the Baltimore Symphony charges more for tickets at Strathmore (Bethesda) than they do at Meyerhoff Hall (Baltimore).
Still, we’re talking tens of thousands of dollars saved, not any real cuts to the military. What a joke.
Joe, maybe those ticket prices are higher simply because the clientele is wealthier. That is, the price hike is more than enough to cover the more expensive venue.
I heard the same thing about the farmer’s markets, believe it or not. Farmers charge more for the same produce at tony DuPont Circle than in, say, Silver Spring.
Thats really too bad because what you learn by playing in or watching a band with 40-60 people teaches you things that you can never learn any other way such as dynamics, complex harmony and most importantly: PLAYING YOUR POSITION!
Anytime I meet a musician that has orchestral experience I always know we will be able to produce something worthwhile because they know how to control their ego.
This is a huge problem among musicians. Many are great individually, but they can’t function as a group because they all want to be the “quarterback”
(((shakin my head)))
They are still having the concert. They are just doing it (4 times) at the hall they can use for free, rather than renting out Strathmore.
I went to the Marine Corps Band concert at Strathmore a few years ago. I did not see many kids there. The Christmas concerts (Army, Navy, Air Force) do have lots of kids.
Marine Band is too busy to do four public concerts (what the others do, I think) around Christmas as they play all the White House Christmas parties. They do one sing-a-long at Wolftrap instead.
Isn’t Strathmore fairly new as well?
And yes, I’m pretty sure being in Bethesda will drive up prices.
Marine Band is too busy to do four public concerts (what the others do, I think) around Christmas as they play all the White House Christmas parties. They do one sing-a-long at Wolftrap instead.
They don’t call ‘em The President’s Own for nuthin’.
BTW, the Marine Band is a very tough outfit to join. You have to be a GOOD musician before they’ll even look your way.
When my wife and I were in the Army band system she was qualified to try to get into a DC band but I was not. After seeing the bad side she had no interest, though.
When my wife and I were in the Army band system she was qualified to try to get into a DC band but I was not. After seeing the bad side she had no interest, though.
The Bad Side of DC Bands! Now, there’s a thrash metal act I’d like to see!
I meant the bad side of the army band system. The DC bands are known as the premium, cushy gigs (although they still work hard). Out in the division bands, like the 101st Airborne Division Band where we were…that’s the “bad side” of the system.
+1 Slim
“Bad Side of DC” sounds like the best battle of the (military) bands ever. Turn ‘em loose out of uniform; musical discipline AND anger. Nice.
If a preemptive cut in military spending is made in anticipation of sequestration, will the 10% (or whatever) reduction be reduced to consider the preemptive cut, or will 10% additional be cut in case the sequester goes through as planned?
They are working on a fiscal year. That year started in October. Any cuts that they make now count.
I think it was a great move. They don’t have to pay to play concerts in their own hall. The musicians and instruments are based there, so they don’t have to arrange whatever transportation they usually pay for. And it is a very, very visible change. Cut visible, expensive stuff and keep paying for piccolo maintenance and the stuff you actually need to keep an orchestra functioning.
I take this as an indication of how likely they think the cuts are to actually take place. None of the military bands cut their Christmas concerts at Constitution Hall (Daughters of the American Revolution building) in December.
“They are working on a fiscal year.”
The downside to that fact is that a 10% cut that goes into effect on April 1 may feel much like a 20% cut.
Depends. I’ve heard that it might be amortized for the amount of the year that is left. Haven’t had a chance to run that information down. However, the rumors are also that civilian DoD employees could be on furlough one day a week, so that is 20% anyway, though of course, that isn’t everyone they have to pay. I’m just not following the DoD narrative closely enough to be sure. Sorry.
“However, the rumors are also that civilian DoD employees could be on furlough one day a week, so that is 20% anyway, though of course, that isn’t everyone they have to pay.”
America’s Debt Challenge
Spending cuts: What you need to know
By Jeanne Sahadi @CNNMoney February 19, 2013: 10:36 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
The budgets of most federal government programs and agencies will shrink on March 1.
Congress could prevent that from happening, but it’s not likely to do so before the deadline.
It’s still unclear, however, whether Congress would let the so-called funding sequester stay in effect for long.
So one way or another, here come the cuts.
What is the sequester exactly? It’s just a fancy word for automatic, across-the-board cuts in funding.
How much will be cut? The sequester would slash how much federal agencies are allowed to spend by $85 billion over seven months.
The White House estimates that funding for nondefense programs would be cut by 9%, while defense programs would be cut by 13%, for the seven months remaining in fiscal year 2013, which ends Sept. 30.
The funding reductions would come primarily from what’s known as discretionary spending. Discretionary spending supports a vast array of programs, agencies and services from the FBI to the FDA to support for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
There would also be some cuts in mandatory spending, which unlike discretionary spending isn’t subject to annual review by Congress. But popular entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security would be largely protected. So would safety-net programs such as Medicaid and food stamps.
Also exempt: military personnel and Veterans Affairs, although veterans may be hit in other ways, especially since they’re a big part of the Defense Department’s civilian workforce.
What would be affected? Most federal programs and activities.
Indeed, the cuts on non-exempt areas will be broadly felt. Food inspections, border security, weather monitoring, medical research, disaster response, education programs and Meals on Wheels for seniors would be compromised.
Federal workers at different agencies would face furloughs. They may be told not to come to work one or two days every week or every pay period until September. And they won’t be paid for those furloughed days.
“Core operations would have to be shut down or curtailed across nearly all federal agencies,” White House Budget Office Controller Danny Werfel said in testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee.
How quickly will the cuts hit? It depends.
Anticipation of the sequester has already caused federal agencies to slow or freeze hiring and to limit the contracts they issue for future services and products. They’ve also reduced travel and training costs.
…
For all the demographic deniers —
There is a lot of data showing that the most intelligent and most educated females have the least children. In the U.S., women with bachelor’s degrees have fertility rates of something like 1.5 (replacement rate is 2.1). Women with medical/law/grad degrees have even lower fertility, something like 1.3. And those numbers are dropping with Millenials.
If the U.S. population holds steady, it will because more children are being born to the relatively less educated, less affluent families that are more likely to depend on government support. As I say, there is lots of data about this. A friend of mine is a population researcher with a Cornell PhD and has done extensive work on this, I will post some later. In the meantime, you can start with wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_and_intelligence
“Fertility and intelligence research investigates the relationship between fertility and intelligence. Demographic studies have indicated that in humans, fertility rate and intelligence tend to be inversely correlated, that is to say, the more intelligent, as measured by IQ tests, exhibit a lower total fertility rate than the less intelligent.”
LOL @ Northeasterner’s rant last week based on a bunch of anecdates. First off, you’re an older generation and you and your friends are a self-selected group where most of the women are probably stay at homes and where you consider 100k/yr to be a high income (which, LULZ). Second off, the plural form of anecdote is not data.
BTW, I didn’t mean 100k isn’t an OK income, but it’s just a middle class/working class income when you have multiple kids involved. To me, that just seems crazy.
2-3% inflation every year dosen’t add up.
100k being strictly middle class to raise a family shows what REAL inflation is.
Exactly, 100k used to pay for nicer things back in the 90s. Now, with multiple kids, there are a lot of hidden expenses that crush these people’s hopes and dreams. Unless they never had any to begin with.
I bet the 100k goes a long way in Omaha than in NYC.
That’s because the cost of raising a child to 18 for your proverbial 100K family is shocking.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_raising_a_child
There’s no real mark for exactly 100K on there, but let’s assume that it’s somewhere between the top 2 brackets, 250-300K over 18 years. Somewhere between 1-1.5K/mo for the next 18 years! And then, college. Another (today’s dollars) 100K-300K, depending on the school.
For my wife and I, the numbers are dramatically worse. There’s the costs of the child (call it 400K based on the Wiki chart) and then, even more crushing, there’s the 3-5 years my wife would take off work (another few 100K in lost income). Add in college costs, and you’re well north of 1M dollars. And that’s assuming everything goes well.
People would look at me like I had 3 heads if I (in my income bracket) went out and bought a 50′ boat for 1M dollars with a 30 year loan. And yes, people rush headlong into a similar financial arrangement all the time with children.
I think if people better understood the cost, I think they’d better understand why their 100K income doesn’t go as far as they think it should.
I don’t understand why it would be cheaper for a single parent household to raise a child than a dual parent household.
I think the health column is understated. It would cost about $300 per month to go from a married plan to a family plan on my health insurance. Assuming 2 children with the $300 split between them, that is $1800 per child before any doctor visits.
“I don’t understand why it would be cheaper for a single parent household to raise a child than a dual parent household.”
The table is likely an average of what [is] spent; more household income means better opportunities.
Raising children is a huge undertaking for both parents regardless if one of them is a homemaker. We know a couple of families where blue-collar dad was all-consumed and decided to skip-out. The damage done to those left behind is irreparable, IMHO.
An interesting recent study on education of women/status of women and fertility. I’ll post more studies later.
The basic crux of what I’m seeing is, when you educate women and elevate the status of women generally (no longer seen as babymaker/domestic help) the birth rates craaaaaater. This is hardly revolutionary, but some people here can’t seem to get this through their thick skulls.
——————————-
“Studies of fertility decline in the developing
world have come to different conclusions about
the presumed causes of these declines. 1 But
there is near unanimous agreement on two of
the strongest influences on reduced fertility at
both the individual and the community levels.
These two influences are (a) the status of
women/mothers (as measured by a number of
indicators, but referring finally to some notion
of gender equality, which is usually not the
same thing as ‘‘prestige’’) and (b) the education
of the women who become mothers. There are
exceptions, of course, but on the whole the
exceptions only serve to strengthen the case
that these two indicators (gender equality and
female education) both tend to depress fertility.”
http://csde.washington.edu/~scurran/files/readings/May12/Why%20Does%20Education%20Lead%20to%20Lower%20Fertility.pdf
From a little later in the same article:
“Whatever the role of declining mortality in
reducing fertility (which can and probably does
happen without any change in the demand for
living children), it does seem to be the case that
the desired family size (that is, the number of
living children wanted) also goes down with
education, and especially at educational levels
that go beyond a few years.”
So, not only does the number of kids decrease (which you could say is a result of biological reasons, like people waiting too long then not being able to have a kid. No, the education actually tends to reduce the DESIRED FAMILY SIZE. Meaning, people start to be able to imagine a life outside of traditional/orthodox terms. They start to be able to evaluate self interest and decide that maybe multiple kids are a big drain on time and energy. Especially in a country like the U.S. that hates K-12 education and generally has very anti-child policies.
http://csde.washington.edu/~scurran/files/readings/May12/Why%20Does%20Education%20Lead%20to%20Lower%20Fertility.pdf
(quote is from the 5th pg of this PDF)
The future belongs to Lucky Ducky:
“Today, the United States has less equality of opportunity than almost any other advanced industrial country. Study after study has exposed the myth that America is a land of opportunity.
It’s not that social mobility is impossible, but that the upwardly mobile American is becoming a statistical oddity. According to research from the Brookings Institution, only 58% of Americans born into the bottom fifth move out of that category, and just 6 percent move into the top.”
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/16/equal-opportunity-our-national-myth/
It’s not that social mobility is impossible, but that the upwardly mobile American is becoming a statistical oddity.
That’s commie talk. We just need more bootstrap factories.
“If the U.S. population holds steady, it will because more children are being born to the relatively less educated, less affluent families that are more likely to depend on government support.”
I assume the relatively less educated young adults have less of no student debt to deter them from starting families?
And by the way, though I assume Ms. Hu’s loan carries a positive interest rate, even at 0% it would take almost 17 years to pay off a $164,000 loan at a rate of $818 a month (164,000/818/12 = 16.7 years). At that point, Ms. Hu will be 45 years old, possibly beyond her child-bearing years.
Focus
Behind the falling US birthrate: too much student debt to afford kids?
The record-low birthrate in the US is showing no signs of bouncing back, even with the economy on the mend. Evidence is growing that huge student debt may be deterring people from starting families.
By Gloria Goodale, Staff writer / January 30, 2013
Karen Hu and her husband plan their meals for the week at their home in Oakton, Va. She has accumulated $164,000 in college debt, which means ‘children just don’t fit’ into their lives right now, she says.
Los Angeles
Karen Hu of Oakton, Va., is 28, married, graduated from law school – and thinking about babies. But that’s as far as she and her husband, a software programmer, have gotten: just thinking. What’s holding them back?
For one, Ms. Hu is finding it a challenge to land a good job in the post-recession economy.
For another, her student debt – some $164,000, with a monthly payment of $818 – is forcing the couple to think hard about taking on the additional expenses that come with having a child. “Children just don’t fit into that scenario,” Hu says.
…
The lack of support for public universities, coupled with a degraded K-12 system, just shows you how much America values its future. The US has allowed a system to develop where the potential of its young people are a distant third to a) entitlements for old people and b) military spending to “keep america strong” (TM).
Student debt is yet another reason that America’s next generation is going to be birthed largely by its less-than-capable underclass.
Yay America.
Why can’t we just import all the smart, well-educated Chinese and Indian young adults we need to make up for our own dismal performance in preparing our kids to compete in the global economy?
I think that has been the plan for some time now. And now there is talk of automatically handing out green cards to foreigners who graduate from our universities.
As long as we get the Indians from the right caste.
Just ignore the $1 trillion student loan elephant in the room.
He’s not there. You’re hallucinating.
What those kidz need are $350K “starter homes” (or $500K+ on the coasts).
They also need federally-guaranteed, low-down payment FHA loans to make those $500K+ starter homes more affordable.
My law school loans were only about $70K. The monthly payment was over $1000 to start. Now, it went down very quickly at the beginning because a few very small loans ($2K or $3K) had minimum payments of $50 a month, so once I got rid of the really small loans the monthly nut for the other was disproportionately cut, but the difference in the numbers is still interesting. Also, my loans were all amortized at 10 years (unless the $50 a month paid it off faster) and I didn’t consolidate. I wonder if her monthly payment is for a 25 year consolidated loan?
For another, her student debt – some $164,000, with a monthly payment of $818 –
Say what you will about a depreciating house. At least you can live in it.
Also, it appears that that young ones are wising up, as law school and MBA program enrollments are plummeting.
“Go away! I’m batin!”
Kristen Bell, who knew?
“intelligence tend to be inversely correlated, that is to say, the more intelligent, as measured by IQ tests, exhibit a lower total fertility rate than the less intelligent.”
What poppycock!! Sad state of affairs when IQ tests and college degrees is taken as ‘the’ measure of intelligence. I’d rather be surrounded by people with ‘common sense’ than a horde of people with a vast amount of regurgitated knowledge that I could get anytime from a computer.
AAA+++
But he’s a HYP I think. He has to justify the “hard earned” diploma.
FWIW, the people who design the computers and software that provide you with “information at your fingertips” have high IQ scores and went to college.
“IQ tests and college degrees is taken as ‘the’ measure of intelligence. I’d rather be surrounded by people with ‘common sense’ than a horde of people with a vast amount of regurgitated knowledge that I could get anytime from a computer.”
IQ tests are not measures of “trivia” that you can get from a computer. They are measures of “g”, or general intelligence, in the best form that we currently know how to test for. SATs, in the past, were also excellent measures of general intelligence (that has changed ~1996 or so), basically they used to be a proxy IQ test.
Trust me, working with high “g” people (or hanging out with them) is very interesting and not at all about regurgitating knowledge from a computer. Common sense isn’t a great measure of “g”, particularly at the high end; there are people with 140 IQs that seem to be totally at odds with the way other people see the world, and, as such, have low common sense.
Mensa
Interestingly, the Spanish use of the word mensa (female) or menso (male)generally denotes someone who is crazy or stupid.
“No seas menso”…. Don’t be crazy. Or, “mensa, yo te dije que no lo hicieras”… stupid, I told you not to do it.
First off, you’re an older generation and you and your friends are a self-selected group where most of the women are probably stay at homes and where you consider 100k/yr to be a high income (which, LULZ). Second off, the plural form of anecdote is not data.
LOL. Yes, an older generation by all of 8 years from your 30… as if that adds support to any of your arguments.
None of our group of friends have stay-at-home wives/mothers. We are all dual income households and all in the $125k-200k range…
Given an income of $100k puts you in the top 10% of households in the country and the top 20% of households in high cost states like MA, CT, NJ, etc… yes, I’d say a $100k annual income is high income. Having said that, I agree that inflation has reduced that $100k income to probably about $75k over the last 10 years.
Lastly, my anecdotes were a direct response to your jive BS regarding education vs. fertility: anyone with an average IQ would realize that high student loan debt in combination with pursuing Masters/PHD or professional degrees like law/medicine would delay one’s career advancement, thus also delaying family formation and having children.
Given biological fertility drops with age after 30 for women, statistically over-educated career women would have less children. You supposedly have an above average IQ, so what’s your excuse?
The plural of anecdote is not data.
Come on, Joe. Even you have to admit that the Millenials haven’t finished having kids yet. Will their total output be a bit lower than previous generations? Yeah, most likely. But to assume it will remain at 1.3? You can’t know that.
The plural of anecdote is not data.
Your data is not wrong. Your conclusions are wrong.
Your conclusion is that there is an inverse relationship between IQ and fertility (only dumb people are breeding). The conclusion should be that the time-value of not having children is of greater financial benefit to those who are already at the upper-end of the education/income scale.
It is hypothesized in this essay that some sources of family income encourage, and other sources discourage, fertility, because different sources of family income modify the economic
opportunities parents must sacrifice to have another child, or the price of children in terms of parental time and market goods (Mincer 1963).
For example, if an increment in family income is due to the rising value of women’s time, this source of income not only expands income opportunities of the family but also raises the effective price of children to the family. Because it is empirically observed that higher values of women’s time are associated with lower levels of lifetime fertility, it is inferred that the price effect of women’s wages outweighs its income effect on fertility.
In contrast, if an increment in total family income is due to an increase in the returns to physical assets-financial assets, business assets, land, and natural resources, such as oil, these income sources add to family endowments while not necessarily affecting the relative opportunity cost of children to parents, in which case these income sources are expected to be associated with higher fertility, other things being equal (P. Schultz 1981, 1994).
The paper that was pulled from is here
Actually I think that the phrase “the plural of anecdote is not data” in itself is wrong. When you have enough anecdotes (N), that IS data. And taken to its logical conclusion, if you know ALL the anecdotes in the population, then you have perfect data with 0 sigma uncertainty.
Your data “are” not wrong; your grammar is.
Your data “are” not wrong; your grammar is.
Never figured you for a grammar Nazi! His usage was fine. There are many rules about how to use data (for example as a singular mass noun like he was using it) and what he said is certainly acceptable.
If you have a cogent argument against what he’s saying then use it. The reality is that you’re just using some sort of ad hominem attack here. How about a little ad feminam? “Your data are not wrong” sounds stupid in this case.
Oxide, maybe you need a grammar lesson, too. Here’s the definition of ‘anecdote’ in question:
An account regarded as unreliable or hearsay.
No matter how much of that you get, it does not turn into ‘facts’ or ‘data’.
“Actually I think that the phrase “the plural of anecdote is not data” in itself is wrong. When you have enough anecdotes (N), that IS data. And taken to its logical conclusion, if you know ALL the anecdotes in the population, then you have perfect data with 0 sigma uncertainty.”
Whether you have data or not from a bunch of anecdotes depends on how you chose your anecdotes. You have to use a randomly chosen statistical sample on your entire universe. “I know a bunch of people who are “a” and “not b” won’t ever do it.
All the anecdotes is, of course, a sample that is the same as your universe, but you don’t talk about anecdotes in that situation.
MV- Are you sure you want to get into this with me? NE’s self-described “anecdotes” are not facts. They are information. The use of “data” in this instance is plural.
“Your data are wrong” does NOT “sound stupid” unless you’re the sort who is comfortable using the word “ain’t” un-ironically. Try using “data is” in a stat class (as NE tries to do below with the pretentious use of “substitution bias” — for which I called him out above and which precipitated THIS conversation), and you’ll be laughed out of the room.
You might find the following useful:
If you’re going to use “data” as a singular mass noun, you should be able to replace it in a sentence with the word “information”, which is also a mass noun, as in:
“Much of NE’s information is unreliable because of his lack of supportive data.”
If you use “data” as a plural count noun, you should be able to replace it with “facts”, which is also a plural count noun, as in:
“Many of NE’s stated facts are assumptive because of their lack of supportive data.”
In either case his anecdotes don’t qualify as data.
Oxide, maybe you need a grammar lesson, too. Here’s the definition of ‘anecdote’ in question:
Technically, isn’t that a vocabulary lesson and not a grammar lesson?
I’m not going to worry about it. Lighten up everybody….
Try using “data is” in a stat class (as NE tries to do below with the pretentious use of “substitution bias” — for which I called him out above and which precipitated THIS conversation), and you’ll be laughed out of the room.
Thanks for the grammar lesson… it did nothing to counter my argument or supporting documentation that Joe Smith’s conclusions regarding the inverse relationship of IQ and Fertility are completely wrong (and not to mention elitist).
As to being laughed out of a college statistics class, I took stats in college, 20 years ago. As I am no longer a college student nor a professional statistician, I don’t particularly concern myself with what intellectuals think of my usage of the term “data”.
As you so helpfully pointed out above regarding my lack of experience with generational wealth, I live in the real world… where I actually have to create value for my employer. I tend not to sweat the “college textbook” minutia and rather focus on the more important concepts like “Does this code work according to spec?”
Horse, the other white meat:
Buger King profits up 94%.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/burger-king-net-up-94-on-lower-expenses-2013-02-15?Link=obinsite
Fast food prices are so high now that I can almost make a steak dinner at home (when steak is on sale) for less than a non dollar menu burger combo. I picked up some nice T-bones at Kroger’s for about $6 each the other day.
I’ve noticed a lot of price compression between McDs style fast food and the midrange Applebees type stuff lately. Considering that at the midrange chains you usually get enough leftovers for another meal, we may have reached the point that the only reasons to eat McDs are either you actually want it that day, time is an issue, or you are so screwed financially that you can pay for it, but not the next rung up that would actually give you two meals for your money.
On the other hand, you can still eat kind of cheap at places like Taco Bell and Wendy’s.
If you sold hamburgers for $5 each, your profits would be up 94% too.
It’s ridiculous. It wasn’t that long ago that you could get a double at Wendy’s for under $3. Now they want $5? I have a gas grill at home. Burgers aren’t that hard to make.
I don’t like their burgers anyway. I just get chili and a potato for 3 bucks or so.
I miss the Burger King Guy he was creepy
you Tube is a great source of old fast food ads and new made up ones
still can’t find the Classic Jack in The box ad with all disfunctional other brands including a retarded Ronald Mcdonald the very over weight Taco bell dog. Must have been baned and destroyed.
see Rad Antham for a nasty video on classic fast food characters
new Kunstlercast out
http://kunstlercast.com/shows/kunstlercast-217-the-god-of-progress-is-dead.html
February 2013
Foods Raising Your Grocery Bill in 2013
By Ed Maixner
You’ll pay more at the supermarket this year, thanks to drought-depleted food supplies and a greater reliance on pricier food imports.
Look for food prices overall to go up as much as 4% in 2013, about a percentage point higher than 2012’s annual increase. Some products will see even sharper price spikes. For instance, the shortage of soybeans is helping to push the price of vegetable oils up 5% to 6%, on average. A one-pound tub of soft margarine has risen 33%, to $2.08, since 2010, when the nation’s persistent drought began.
http://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/business/T050-S007-foods-raising-your-grocery-bill-in-2013/index.html - 94k
FED Money-Printing for Bank Theft is Leading to High Rising Food …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOEAj1A2Zr8 - 180k -
High food prices are here to stay – and here’s why
Commodity prices are rising across the world and in Britain the price of basic foods is spiralling
John Vidal
The Observer, Saturday 16 July 2011
According to mySupermarket and other food price-tracking sites, a typical shopping basket in Britain now costs around 6% more than it did last year but specific foods and key staples are clearly much dearer. Some English butter is up 40% in a year, chocolate biscuits 50%, coffee 20% and pasta 29%.
Commodity price rises 2010-2011
WHEAT + 98%
BEEF + 32%
SUGAR + 48%
COCOA + 80%
COOKING OILS + 53%
RICE + 33%
All price rises are May 2010 to May 2011. Figures from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations
http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2011/jul/17/food-prices-rise-commodities - 184k -
What double digit inflation?
What double digit inflation ??
Didn’t you get the government memo on 2.5% inflation ??
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
if you calculate it the same way they did in 1980…it’s close.
Can anyone say “substitution bias”?
Does anyone besides me find the news puzzling that central banks are currently among the largest buyers of gold? What’s in it for them to load up on The Precious™?
Have central banks always played the ‘buyer of last resort’ role in the gold market, or is this a new development?
Globe Investor
Central banks, consumers split on gold
DAVID BERMAN
The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Feb. 14 2013, 9:57 AM EST
Last updated Thursday, Feb. 14 2013, 9:57 AM EST
The World Gold Council released its fourth quarter gold demand report on Thursday, and the trends provide a mixed picture: Central banks are still hot-and-bothered by gold, but consumers and investors are taking a somewhat cooler approach – providing an overall lukewarm assessment of an asset now 13 per cent off its high.
More Related to this Story
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SEAN SILCOFF Hidden costs take the gleam off gold miners’ stocks
Central bank buying comes as many developed economies in Europe, Asia and the United States continue to tinker with monetary policies that are making investors question the value of currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar.
According to the WGC, central bank gold purchases rose 17 per cent in 2012. In the fourth quarter, purchases rose 29 per cent over the fourth quarter of 2011. That marked the eighth consecutive quarter of net purchases by central banks, which sounds like great news for gold investors: Central bank buying as a source of global demand implies that the metal’s value as a hard currency is alive and well.
However, investors appear to be shifting their focus. While global investment in gold-focused exchange traded funds rose 17 per cent in 2012 over 2011, it fell 16 per cent in the fourth quarter.
Consumers also look lukewarm, and the WGC placed particular emphasis on what’s going on in China and India – markets that the WGC calls “power houses.” In China, gold demand in 2012 was flat year-over-year and rose just 1 per cent in the fourth quarter. The WTC attributes this sluggish demand to the impact of the economic slowdown.
In India, where gold is a huge part of the jewelry market, gold demand actually fell 12 per cent year-over-year – though it jumped a perplexing 41 per cent in the fourth quarter.
“In India the prospect of duty increases, which came in to force in January 2013, may have added to strong buying in the final quarter to beat the anticipated price rises,” the WGC said in its release.
In any event, the WGC – a market development organization of the gold industry – prefers to look at the broader trend: “Despite the turbulent macroeconomic climate throughout the year, as well as the regional uncertainties affecting India and China, the two largest gold markets, annual demand was 30 per cent higher than the average for the past decade.”
The report had little influence on the price of gold: It rose on Thursday morning to $1,650 (U.S.) an ounce, up $4.
maybe it puts them in control over it and more of an opportunity to manipulate the price?
We haz a winner.
The buyers of last resort better hurry up and buy more, as the price is on the verge of dipping below $1600/oz!
Bulletin
Investor Alert
Gold (COMEX) Apr 2013
COMEX: GCJ3
Market open $1,603.70
Change -$31.80 -1.94%
Volume 1.03m
Feb 19, 2013 10:37 a.m.
Quotes are delayed by 10 min
Previous close $ 1,635.50
Day low $1,604
Day high $1,619
52 week low $1,539
52 week high $1,805
Gold (COMEX) Apr 2013
COMEX: GCJ3
Market open
$1,602.10
Change -33.40 -2.04%
Volume 1.06m
Feb 19, 2013 12:08 p.m.
Quotes are delayed by 10 min
Previous close $ 1,635.50
Day low $1,602
Day high $1,619
It dropped to $1600.40 AS I TYPED THAT POST.
Gold (COMEX) Apr 2013
COMEX: GCJ3
Market open $1,600.40
Change -$35.10 -2.15%
Volume 1.06m
Feb 19, 2013, 12:15 p.m.
The trend last few weeks for gold and silver been; It goes up at night and it comes down in the morning. Wonder why?
If it goes up at night and comes down in the morning, there is no trend. The name for what you describe is a cycle.
Does anyone besides me find the news puzzling that central banks are currently among the largest buyers of gold? What’s in it for them to load up on The Precious™?
I don’t know unless it’s time to convert as much paper into something “real” as possible before nobody wants the paper. Aren’t they effectively buying up houses and land with paper right now? Should gold be any different?
We’re in a “race-to-the-bottom” currency war with governments all over the globe inflating and devaluing like mad… this won’t end well. My guess is central banks are taking steps to deal with the eventual outcome of all this inflation: currency destruction. What will people believe in once the destruction is done? Gold seems to be a good choice…
We’re in a “race-to-the-bottom” currency war with governments all over the globe inflating and devaluing like mad… ??
Yep….Spot on….
You must not believe any of the news releases about how the G-20 plans to coordinate currency policy to avoid a “race-to-the-bottom” currency war. Apparently many gold traders are not quite as sanguine as you are.
Draghi Seeks to Ease Talk of Global Currency War
By JAMES KANTER
Published: February 18, 2013
BRUSSELS — The president of the European Central Bank sought on Monday to ease fears that countries including Japan were deliberately weakening their currencies.
The comments by the president, Mario Draghi, appeared to show how some of the world’s most senior economic policy makers were continuing to limit the possibility of a so-called currency war.
Over the weekend, finance ministers from the Group of 20 pledged to refrain from devaluing their currencies to gain a competitive advantage in global trade.
During an afternoon of scheduled testimony before the European Parliament’s economic and finance committee in Brussels, Mr. Draghi said that the euro’s current exchange rate was close to its long-term average. He advised officials not to make alarmist comments.
“Most of the exchange rate movements that we have seen were not explicitly targeted; they were the result of domestic macroeconomic policies meant to boost the economy,” Mr. Draghi told the committee, without mentioning any countries by name. “In this sense, I find really excessive any language referring to currency wars.”
…
I believe in what I see, not what the G-20 says they will do. As one example, I see South Korea is actively trying to debase against the Japanese Yen in order to maintain it’s economic competitive advantage in exports.
Countries will do what is in their own best economic interests to do… and right now it is “begger thy neighbor”.
Countries will do what is in their own best economic interests to do ??
In a global recession its every man for himself….Ally my a$$…We are looking inward….
Which really prompts an interesting question…Who is it, throughout the developed world that can withstand the most austerity…Who can withstand the most in a devalued currency and high inflation….I suppose we are not to high on the list given the high standard of living that we have enjoyed and the unemployment/underemployment we now face…
So, the value of the currency is in the mind of the beholder. It’s a logical construct. What the central banks are doing with printing money and “buying” government debt undermines the currency’s illusion of value.
Gold has been a widely accepted historic store of value. I’m thinking the central banks know their manipulations are nicking away at their currency’s illusion of value. And having vast stores of gold in case their manipulations go to far and collapse the currency will allow them to “re-back” the currency with gold, at least temporarily, halting any hyperinflation.
On the other hand: These public displays of gold buying could be another way to intentionally stoke inflation fears, enticing people into assets. Fear of inflation is a desired end result of the central bankers.
It’s lost on me how CBs buying gold is supposed to stoke inflation fears. A more logical interpretation is that they are trying to prevent a deflationary spiral from taking hold, where savers sitting on piles of cash can earn a positive real rate of return, despite the Fed’s rock-bottom rate policy, by merely holding on to cash until later, when they can buy stuff at lower prices. A falling gold price would be a clear indication of deflation, which is what central banks wish to offset.
The idea that inflationary pressures are somehow driving the bus is patently ludicrous, and I am surprised so many HBB posters are so clueless that they keep repeating the message.
Does anyone besides me find the news puzzling that central banks are currently among the largest buyers of gold? What’s in it for them to load up on The Precious™?
Perhaps QE by any other name would smell as sweet?
Consumer Confidence Plunges as Payroll Tax Holiday Ends
By The Associated Press
Posted 11:34AM 01/29/13
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
WASHINGTON — U.S. consumer confidence plunged in January to its lowest level in more than a year, reflecting higher Social Security taxes that left Americans with less take-home pay.
http://dailyfinance.com/2013/01/29/consumer-confidence-plunges-as-payroll-tax-holiday-ends/ - 101k
Wal-Mart shares fall on report of weak February sales
Reuters – Fri, Feb 15, 2013
(Reuters) - Shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc fell 2.1 percent on Friday after Bloomberg quoted a mid-level executive’s email as saying the world’s largest retailer had the worst sales start to any month in seven years in February.
Wal-Mart executives blamed the poor sales performance on increased payroll taxes as well as delayed tax returns, Bloomberg said.
Higher payroll taxes this year are seen as a potential problem for Wal-Mart and other discount retailers that try to attract lower-income customers who have less disposable income.
“In case you haven’t seen a sales report these days, February (month-to-date) sales are a total disaster,” Jerry Murray, a Wal-Mart vice president who works on finance in the U.S. logistics division, said in a February 12 email to other executives, Bloomberg reported. “The worst start to a month I have seen in my (about) 7 years with the company.”
http://news.yahoo.com/wal-mart-shares-tumble-report-weak-february-sales-201023718–finance.html - 165k -
Propaganda.
Most people under 50k are hardly affected.
Jan through March are traditonally slow.
“Propaganda.”
“Most people under 50k are hardly affected.”
“Jan through March are traditonally slow.”
Nearly Half Of American Households Are 1 Emergency Away From Financial Disaster, Report Finds
The Huffington Post | By Jillian Berman Posted: 01/30/2013 12:01 am EST
Kevin Price is one emergency away from not being able to cover his basic needs, but he doesn’t fit the stereotype of someone living on the financial edge.
Price lives in a three-bedroom house with his wife and two children in a suburb of Wilmington, Del. The family owns two cars, the kids participate in high school sports, and they all attend church services regularly. Price works full-time, as does his wife, and thanks to her job, the family has access to health insurance. But after covering rent, the cost of insurance for Price, his wife and their two children and other basic expenses, the couple had just $223 left in the bank in January.
Of his precarious financial situation, Price, 44, said, “It’s like Muzak in the back of your head. It’s a constant little annoyance.”
Many of the Americans living on the financial edge are employed and living a middle-class lifestyle, the report found. Three-quarters are employed full-time and more than 15 percent earn more than $55,000 per year, according to the Assets and Opportunity Scorecard. The median household income in the U.S. was $52,762 between 2007 and 2011, according to the Census Bureau.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/30/financial-emergency-report_n_2576326.html - 362k
“Propaganda.”
Nearly Half Of American Households Are 1 Emergency Away From Financial Disaster, Report Finds
“But after covering rent, the cost of insurance for Price, his wife and their two children and other basic expenses, the couple had just $223 left in the bank in January.”
End of tax holiday means smaller paychecks for most Hoosiers
01/11/13
by Dan Spehler
“The expiration of the payroll tax holiday Jan. 1 means your federal social security taxes have gone up two percent. If you make $50,000 a year, you will lose about $38 in your take home pay every two weeks. If you make $75,000 per year, you will lose about $57 in every paycheck,”
Dude — figure out for yourself how the payroll tax works and get back to us.
Hint: My daughter’s boyfriend, and 18-year-old high school senior who works part time at a local low-end Chinese restaurant, complained to me about the tax sting.
Agreed. Everyone who earns a paycheck just had a two percent pay cut. If you make 50K, that’s a cool $1000. It has to come out of somewhere.
The tax holiday was a bad idea to begin with, as it would have to eventually expire and the weaning would be painful. Add that to the inevitable healthcare premium increases (ours went up $25 a month), December credit card balances to pay off and you wind up with some tight fisted individuals.
“Everyone who earns a paycheck just had a two percent pay cut.”
The correct statement is ‘anyone who earns a paycheck at less than the Social Security wage base just had a two percent pay cut.’
The current wage base is $113,700. Anyone nominally earning $113,700 a year or more just saw their annual take-home pay decrease by 2% * $113,700 = $2,274.
But the total tax effect is the same for annual pay rates above $113,700 a year; i.e. the payroll tax hit in percentage terms for someone earning $200,000 a year is ($2,274/$200,000)*100% = 1.137%. This reflects that the payroll tax is regressive.
The correct statement is ‘anyone who earns a paycheck at less than the Social Security wage base just had a two percent pay cut.’
Agreed, but what percentage of individuals have an income that exceeds the base?
Has anyone ever had a good argument of why the guy who works 80 hours a week to earn 90k and pays a higher tax rate than the guy working 40 hours a week making 60k? Why isn’t this so-called “progressive” tax based on hourly wage rather than total income?? It seems kind of like people working more to get ahead are just being punished for trying to climb out of poverty.
According to the calculator linked below, income of $113,700 would put a household in the 83.5 percentile, implying that 16.5 percent of U.S. households earn more than that amount.
Political Calculations
September 17, 2012
What’s Your Income Percentile?
Where do you rank in the U.S. income spectrum?
Now that the U.S. Census has released its total money income data it collected as part of its 2012 Annual Social and Economic Supplement survey, we can tell you almost exactly where you rank among American individuals, men (if you’re a man), women (if you’re a woman). Or, once you consider the combined income for your family or the members of your household, we can determine your percentile rank among each of those kinds of groupings!
…
“Propaganda.”
“Most people under 50k are hardly affected.”
End of tax holiday means smaller paychecks for most Hoosiers
01/11/13
by Dan Spehler
It’s Friday, and for many people, it’s pay day.
But this week, you probably noticed your check has gotten smaller.
The expiration of the payroll tax holiday Jan. 1 means your federal social security taxes have gone up two percent. If you make $50,000 a year, you will lose about $38 in your take home pay every two weeks. If you make $75,000 per year, you will lose about $57 in every paycheck, $77 if you make $100,000 a year.
“I was a little disappointed,” said Ethan Thomason. “I checked first thing this morning, and noticed it was down.”
“Actually, it was somewhat of a shock,” said Rhonda Denning. “I wasn’t expecting it.”
For many people, the drop in income equals more than a third of the average monthly grocery budget.
“Everything’s going up and the paycheck’s going down,” said shopper Rosene Hankins. “People just don’t have enough money right now to do what needs to be done.”
So how do you make it work?
“That’s going to be tough, they’re really going to have to tighten their belts,” said Dan Kavanaugh, vice president at Finance Center Federal Credit Union. “It starts with how much income you have, and then what are your expenses?”
Kanavaugh recommends people take a close look at their budget, while being diligent about crunching the numbers.
“Look at every bill and see if there’s some place you can cut a little bit,” said Kavanaugh. “Instead of getting the new car, maybe you’ll have to wait a little bit.”
Also, Kavanaugh said it’s important to keep saving.
“What goes first when you get less of a paycheck are the things you should be doing, and that’s paying yourself first,” he said. “If your car breaks down, furnace brakes down, the sump pump goes, you’ve got some cash.”
“I wouldn’t want nobody to get rid of their security alarm, or their cable TV, or the extra things that they like,” said Glenn Brodnex, who also noticed the decrease in take home pay. “But sometimes you’ve got to sacrifice things to make sure you get through the day.”
“Maybe not eating out as much,” Denning suggested.
“Probably just keep trimming down, look for better deals, and keep trying to be frugal,” said Thomason.
“I think a lot of that is being cognizant of the fact that you’ve got a little less money,” said Kavanaugh, “And be sure to spend it a little more wisely.”
http://fox59.com/2013/01/11/end-of-tax-holiday-means-smaller-paychecks-for-most-hoosiers/ - 58k
‘“Maybe not eating out as much,” Denning suggested.’
How are those wait times at Applebee’s looking these days?
As I said, Mitt Romney assured us that the payroll tax does not exist, and that only the makers pay taxes.
If Wal-Mart has a problem with the serfs spending less, perhaps they can start lobbying for an increase in the minimum wage.
Would unemployed serfs not earning a minimum wage of $9/hour spend more at Wal-mart than employed serfs earning $7.50/hour do?
Given their record profits, Corporate America can afford to pay its employees more, especially those making minimum wage. If they want us to spend more, they need to pay is more. The Home ATM is gone and isn’t coming back.
Amen, brother!
And why should corporate America pay more? Out of the goodness of their heart? Tell me, have you asked for a raise this year? Can you justify to your employer why you should earn more? Are you prepared to change employers or relocate if you don’t get a raise?
Business is business, not charity… Get the upper hand on your employer and you have leverage to demand higher wages.
SS tax is really an insurance premium. You’ll get back what you put in and more assuming you live to collect. So people pay social security and not paying for other services they use.
Oh bugger…the HMI couldn’t even quite clear 50 before it started to drop again.
Feb. 19, 2013, 10:00 a.m. EST
Home-builder confidence declines in February: NAHB
By Ruth Mantell
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A gauge of confidence among homebuilders declined in February, the first weakening since April, due, in part, to ongoing headwinds from economic uncertainty and strict lending standards, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Tuesday. The index ticked down to 46 in February from 47 in January. Analysts polled by MarketWatch had expected a February result of 48. The index has barely moved in recent months after substantial gains in much of 2012. To explain the recent pause in confidence gains, NAHB also cited rising materials costs and limited labor availability in certain markets. In February there were declines in builder-confidence components focusing on present sales of single-family homes and prospective-buyer traffic. Meanwhile, sales expectations slightly gained. Despite February’s decline, sentiment is up 64% from a year earlier, with builders encouraged by a strengthening housing market that is benefitting from persistently low interest rates and pent-up demand. However, the builders’ sentiment index remains below a key reading of 50 - the point at which more builders see sales conditions as good than poor.
Welcome to the recoveryless recovery:
“In the most recent recession, however, surveys suggest that consumers sharply revised down their prospects for future income growth and have only partially adjusted up their expectations since then.
See Exhibit 5: Nominal Income Expectations in the article. And then listen to the lying liar NAR-scum keep pimping the alleged recovery. The future belongs to Lucky Ducky
http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/19/janet-yellen-explains-our-crummy-recovery-in-three-charts/
“See Exhibit 5: Nominal Income Expectations in the article. And then listen to the lying liar NAR-scum keep pimping the alleged recovery.”
The most corrupt organization in the history of the world.
Feb. 19, 2013, 8:02 a.m. EST
Easy money won’t save Corporate America
Commentary: Lower taxes and spur trade to get U.S. economy moving
By S.P. Kothari
Reuters
BOSTON (MarketWatch) — Since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007-08, the administration and the Federal Reserve have implemented policies explicitly designed to spur investment, grow GDP, and reduce unemployment. These actions haven’t worked — certainly not as expected.
The weapons of choice to boost the U.S. economy have been low interest rates, deficit spending, and increased money supply through the Fed’s balance-sheet expansion to over $3 trillion. Yet almost five years later, GDP growth has been anemic at below 2% and at times negative, and aggregate domestic investment is about where it was in 2004, and considerably below the 2006-2007 level.
Optimists believe it’s still too early and that we have spent too little. More of the same would eventually produce good fortune — at least, that’s the hope.
There’s one big problem with that hope. Research analyzing six decades of macroeconomic data suggests aggregate corporate investment responds relatively little to interest rates, but reacts (in fact overreacts) to profitability, economic outlook, and business and investor confidence.
U.S. corporate investment — one of the key engines of American economic growth — is largely dependent on how companies view their future profitability outlook, and has little to do with short-term interest rates or the availability of credit.
…
It really isn’t that complicated. Put more money into workers’ hands (via higher wages which Corporate America can easily afford) and they will spend it. When that happens the economy will pick up, fast.
But that won’t happen, as the insatiable corporate maw must be fed first.
More money for workers means less money for CEO and his cronies. It’s the self preservation…as old as Warren Buffet.
Sorry but a stockholder I object.
If you create inflation in food and fuel and medical costs and education debt. There will be very little left for consumption of manufactured goods. Thus more unemployment, thus lower consumption and down the toilet we go.
I just watched Jon Stewart’s “Water for Elephant” segment last night. Slim AZ had recommended this before. It’s *amazing*, look it up on youtube if you all haven’t seen it yet.
Washington’s vacation after an abdication
By Michael Gerson, Published: February 18
Official Washington is so concerned about the coming sequester that it headed off on vacation.
For the record, all sides bear responsibility for this self-destructive turn of events. What President Obama now calls a “really bad idea” was generated by his own economic policy team. What Speaker John Boehner now refers to as a “meat ax” passed the House at his urging with 174 Republican votes. All involved would protest that across-the-board cuts were intended only as the unthinkable alternative to a rational plan approved by the so-called supercommittee. “The sequester is ugly,” explained Boehner at the time, “Why? Because we don’t want anybody to go there. That’s why we have to succeed.”
But no one loses money betting against the success of the federal government on budget issues. And many in American politics are now trying to find the sequester’s inner beauty, which brings to mind the country music classic: “She’s looking better every beer.”
Some Democrats see disproportionate defense reductions as a once-in-a-political-lifetime opportunity. “You are not going to get another chance to cut the defense budget in the way that it needs to be cut,” salivates Howard Dean. For others, it is an opportunity to apply blame to Republicans as airport-screening lines lengthen and meat-quality inspectors are furloughed.
Democratic proposals to avoid the sequester are consistent with an aggressive blame-shifting strategy. Replacing a measure that currently consists of 100 percent budget cuts with one that includes 50 percent revenue increases would probably secure zero Republican votes in the Senate. If Boehner were even to publicly consider this approach, he would likely lose his speakership. The Democratic alternative is designed to be unacceptable to nearly every Republican, making it not a plan but a ploy.
On the Republican side, a few of the libertarian/isolationist persuasion are perfectly content with broad budget cuts that also unravel military preparedness. Many more in the GOP are resigned to sequestration as the least bad of the options they have been given. These Republicans have, of course, their own alternative: Replace immediate, indiscriminate cuts with gradual, long-term reductions in entitlement spending. But enacting it would require presidential leadership involving political risk, which is not expected.
Republicans comfort themselves that a 5.1 percent reduction in domestic spending is not as dramatic as a government shutdown — more of a haircut than a scalping. But it is probably not wise to trust in the restraint and sense of historical proportion of the media in covering the resulting dislocations. And not all the pain will be minor.
So Washington has maneuvered itself into a position where doing nothing makes political sense for everyone, at least for the moment. But when all these politically rational decisions are added up, they still amount to an absurd, discrediting way to run a government.
…
“Uncertainty has proved painful for defense contractors, especially smaller companies that don’t have deals locked in for months or years to come. Pentagon contracts plunged to $12.1 billion in January, a 67 percent decrease from December, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as the military reined in spending in anticipation of the cuts that may be coming.
The U.S. spent $689 billion on defense in 2011, more than 40 percent of all such spending globally in 2011″
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/pentagon-budget-stuck-in-last-century-as-warfare-changes.html
The sequester is great
People will really learn about what government does and doesn’t do. They will find out how many of their customers have jobs or businesses that depend on the gov.
I’m already seeing it, friend in defense laid off, brother in law will get a month or more of unpaid vacation this year. Thus he will not be going on our yearly family vacation. My income is guaranteed to be lower.
This is the last step in squeezing the wealth out of the middle class. In a globalized market the last thing you want is a strong middle class. The US and Europe are moving quickly to the third world model.
“People will really learn about what government does and doesn’t do.”
Call me skeptical if you wish, but I expect a 20% pay reduction with a 0% reduction in work duties. The unmet expectations which result will serve to further confirm how inept the government is.
Contractors are generally rather mercenary by definition, and will jump ship for hire pay on short notice. If just 10% were to take other jobs in the private sector or international job markets the military industrial complex will be scrambling to fill 80,000 openings with cleared and qualified replacements. I tend to look at it as a raise in about 6 months.
You are right!
The only thing keeping this economy afloat is gov spending and the fed giving away money.
But we are due for a disaster: http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine
Nightmare on K Street:
The Nightmare of Sequestration Hits Home
By James Fallows
Feb 18 2013, 12:47 PM ET
The always-popular Air Power Over Hampton Roads air show, featuring the USAF Thunderbirds, has just been called off, as the Pentagon hunkers down in preparation for “the sequester.”
More from local ABC affiliate WVEC, plus AVweb. The WVEC story contains this detail:
…
PORT SLOWDOWNS A CONCERN
Rep. Peters uses waterfront backdrop to highlight potential federal reductions
By Mark Walker
12:01 a.m.Feb. 19, 2013
Updated 6:08 p.m. Feb. 18, 2013
SAN DIEGO — Slower vessel and crew clearances combined with backlogs in cargo inspection and release for shipment could soon hit San Diego’s waterfront, officials said Monday.
Port security could also be threatened if Congress and the White House fail to reach a deal to stave off massive federal budget cuts set to kick in March 1.
Those warnings came from Rep. Scott Peters and Port of San Diego officials as the countdown begins for the start of a decade-long, $1.2 trillion in federal budget cuts stemming from the 2011 “sequester” agreement between the White House and Congress.
Barring another last-minute deal, which appears increasingly unlikely, at least initial cuts are going to take hold.
Peters, D-San Diego, is calling for a more reasoned approach, saying a scalpel and not a meat ax is what is needed.
“Our debt is a serious issue that we have to deal with,” the former port commissioner said during a bay-side news conference at the agency’s 10th Avenue Terminal. “But the way to deal with it is not through these indiscriminate cuts that happen right away and hurt our economy just as we’re coming out of a national recession.”
…
In case you find yourself feeling overwhelmed by an overload of sequestration scare stories, it might be a good time to reflect on the words of the late, great Henry Louis Mencken:
February 19, 2013 6:54 PM
What’s next in the looming budget crisis?
By Major Garrett
(CBS News) WASHINGTON — We are nine days from the next national self-inflicted budget crisis: big, across-the-board cuts in the federal budget will hit automatically on March 1. The cuts are designed to be so deep and damaging that they would force the president and Congress to compromise on a better way.
“These cuts are not smart, they are not fair, they will hurt our economy, they will add hundreds of thousands of Americans to the unemployment rolls,” President Barack Obama said Tuesday. “This is not an abstraction. People will lose their jobs. The unemployment rate might tick up again.”
Obama wants more tax revenue, but Republicans say no. Both sides say it’s up to the other to give in.
There will be a continued effort by the White House to apply public pressure on Republicans to relent. This will be done in public, in events such as Obama’s speech Tuesday; it’s already been done privately.
Top government officials are warning businesses they could be harmed by these looming spending cuts. For example, last Friday, top officials at the Agriculture Department warned meat and poultry producers that there might not be enough federal inspectors to keep their processing plants open and operating.
These are designed to motivate businesses to plead with Republicans to find another way. For now, Republicans appear prepared to take these spending cuts, because they say they will argue to the public they’re more serious about deficit reduction than President Obama.
There are currently no behind-the-scenes negotiations between the White House and Republicans. Republicans say this is President Obama’s problem and that he needs to solve it with new spending cuts, because they refuse to raise taxes again this year.
…
Obama, sequestered
President Barack Obama speaks Tuesday in front of emergency responders to urge action to avoid “sequester,” the automatic budget cuts scheduled to hit March 1. (Jim Watson, Getty-AFP photo / February 19, 2013)
February 20, 2013
During the epic deficits-and-debt donnybrook of mid-2011, two top aides to President Barack Obama proposed an ultimatum so onerous that Congress and the White House surely wouldn’t let it happen.
In his book “The Price of Politics,” Bob Woodward of The Washington Post recounted how Jack Lew, then director of Obama’s Office of Management and Budget, and Rob Nabors, the president’s legislative affairs director, brought the notion of a “sequester” to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid mid-afternoon July 27, 2011. As the idea rapidly evolved: A failure of Congress (via its “supercommittee”) and the White House to agree on substantial deficit reductions would trigger automatic, across-the-board budget cuts.
Members of both parties voted for that provision and Obama signed it into law. But the New Year’s 2013 deal that raised taxes to avoid the “fiscal cliff” also delayed the sequester’s impact — $85 billion over the rest of this fiscal year — until March 1. Democrats expected all along that some agreement would exterminate the sequester and preserve full funding to politically popular domestic programs. They also assumed that Republicans wouldn’t permit the sequester’s deep cuts to defense spending. Instead, Republicans now seem resigned to the reality that across-the-board cuts are better than no cuts, or new tax increases.
Yet with Congress and the White House having demonstrated for nearly two years that scheduled delays do not yield real progress on deficits and debt, Obama on Tuesday said he wants yet another delay, this one for the rest of the year. Standing before firefighters and other first responders, a perturbed Obama warned Americans of the sequester’s impacts: less FBI and border patrol protection, layoffs for “thousands of teachers,” reduced access to cancer screenings and child care, and so on.
…
Feb. 19, 2013, 10:31 a.m. EST
3 places government causes more harm than good
Commentary: Minimum wage, like other market interference, can backfire
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — Raising the minimum wage, like other interference in the market by the government, can cause more harm than good.
A good example of this is when the government sets a price floor. That is, it mandates that all transactions of a particular type cannot be priced below a certain level.
The best-known example of this is the minimum wage. By definition, this is a wage that is higher than would ordinarily be set by the market for labor, based on the supply of workers and the demand for them.
The literature says that when the minimum wage is raised, the supply of workers increases as more people find it worthwhile to enter the labor force.
Meanwhile, the higher minimum wage tends to decrease the demand for these workers. Either the higher rate of pay is more than employers think these workers are worth, and/or some simply cannot afford to pay this rate.
Obviously this causes unemployment to increase — especially among teens that are most likely to be paid this wage. As proof, their unemployment rate is consistently above the average for all workers, in good times and in bad.
To sum it up: The minimum wage may go up, but it benefits only a few — usually those who get paid more than this wage. Those on the bottom of the rung tend to suffer because there are fewer jobs available for them at this new rate.
…
My take on the minimum wage is that it’s basically a simple form of unionization of the bottom (legal) rung. Whether you think that’s good or bad depends…
Yes, it’s much better to give Facebook a tax refund, that way they don’t have to raise prices for Facebookers.
I’ve been on Facebook since last September. At first, I thought it might be a good way to drum up business. More recently, I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s a great place to kill time.
complete waste of time, good for teen-age girls and bored housewives.
I use it for biz too. have thousands and thousands of followers, not sure it has ever created a sale from a promotion.
I use it for biz too. have thousands and thousands of followers, not sure it has ever created a sale from a promotion.
Today, I’m prospecting for business the old fashioned way. I’m making calls.
Tax refund. Refund of prepaid taxes less any taxes due.
Pure BS
Anything that spreads the wealth would be good for the economy minus the fact that all the money will flow very quickly to China.
but the minimum wage does not spread the wealth…did you read the article?
no need to “spread” the wealth. Just put an end to the cheating and collect the taxes due, then use them on America’s deferred maintenance.
And tax outsourcing and reward co’s who bring jobs home.
Hope and Change
“President Barack Obama’s three-day Florida golf getaway featuring a round with Tiger Woods opened him to criticism of tone-deafness for playing when he’s at a budget impasse with Congress that threatens automatic spending cuts in less than two weeks.
Such a fantasy golf weekend is out of reach for most Americans and presents a contrast to Obama’s inaugural and State of the Union speeches, which focused on inequality in the U.S.”
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/obama-golf-with-woods-in-florida-risks-muddling-messsage.html
LOL!
More legislature business is conducted on the golf course, then in the White House.
Then why were you and the press so outraged at all the golf Bush was playing? You can’t have it both ways.
Which legislature is Tiger part of and what business deals do you think they were working on?
i wonder if he got an autograph for his daughters?
Who were the other 3 players?
Vague article is vague.
too bad congress doesn’t play more golf!
We deserve a vote!!!!!!
Can you be little original? The neocons used to use this slogan against Pelosi and Reed not long ago.
It was a sweet chant at the amazing State of the Union! Wow! What a great business plane the POTUS laid out!
“Good Artists Borrow, Great Artists Steal” -Pablo Picasso
Can you imagine, being President, you are on call 24/7 for 8 yrs.
And some kooks complain about a golf game. I for one, want the POTUS to blow off some steam once in a while!
So far O has done very well (with the do nothing congress, no less).
Smart gov, I know, neo-cons are not used to it.
“And some kooks complain about a golf game.”
Hear hear! But then would you expect anything else from Republitards?
Ohbewanna has done well…..that must be a joke.
He has refused to talk about the issues, refused to give any concrete answers.
Attacks white people on guns and lets blacks kill whenever they like.
Assaults Americans with the TSA telling old ladies to take off their Depends instead of using body scanners at public housing projects to get serious about illegal unregistered guns and weapons.
Gives the middle finger to the most hated group in America…RENTERS
By not demanding banks get serious and evict DEADBEAT homeowners living free for years.
Yes so much to be proud of.
Forward
“Richardson told a local television station this month that she voted twice for Obama last November. She cast an absentee ballot and then voted at the polls as well.
Authorities also are investigating if she voted in the names of four other people, too, for a total of six votes in the 2012 presidential election.”
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/02/19/ohio-poll-worker-obama-supporter-investigated-for-potentially-voting-six-times/
And the problem is?
And we know diebold counted every one of those votes.
Also compare this to voter suppression drives in Ohio.
thenation.com/blog/171011/eleventh-hour-gop-voter-suppression-could-swing-ohio
One the act of an individual, the other the act of the government trying to suppress the vote. Given these actions by the gov you believe that this type of activity on the other side is equally investigated and prosecuted??
Central Banks Buy the Most Gold Since 1964
Submitted by VR on Fri, 02/15/2013 - 14:05
Central bank buying for 2012 rose by 17% over 2011 to some 534.6 tonnes. As far as central bank gold buying, this was the highest level since 1964. Central bank purchases stood at 145 tonnes in the fourth quarter. That is up 9% from the fourth quarter of 2011, and the eighth consecutive quarter in which central banks were net purchasers of gold.
http://247wallst.com/2013/02/14/central-banks-buy-the-most-g...
http://www.dailypaul.com/274749/central-banks-buy-the-most-gold-since-1964 - 93k -
Why are central banks propping up the price of gold? Isn’t this the opposite of what would happen if this really were a good time to buy gold? My reading of the situation is that the second central banks cut back their purchases to more normal levels, the price of gold would drop like a rock — not quite the bullish scenario the gold bugs frequently suggest.
Invisible hand of the free market, job creators, at work for you.
http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/another-bailout-ny-fed-lets-boa-hook-
Don’t even bother trying to Google other stories on this.
Little watched crises in Texas utility market unfolding. I knew this pig was leveraged to the hilt and now I have some numbers to support my suspicions:
http://www.fortmilltimes.com/2013/02/19/2504856/energy-future-holdings-reports.html
“Adjusted (non-GAAP) operating results for the fourth quarter 2012 totaled a net loss of $483 million compared with a net loss of $407 million for the fourth quarter 2011.
Reported unrealized mark-to-market net losses (pretax) associated with the hedging program totaled $296 million in the fourth quarter 2012 and $1,540 million for the full year 2012.
Under the program, subsidiaries of EFH have entered into market transactions involving natural gas-related financial instruments. At December 31, 2012, these subsidiaries have effectively sold forward approximately 360 million MMBtu of natural gas (equivalent to the natural gas exposure of approximately 42,000 GWh at an assumed 8.5 market heat rate) at weighted average annual hedge prices ranging from $6.89 per MMBtu to $7.80 per MMBtu. Taking into consideration forward retail and wholesale power sales and the positions in the natural gas hedging program, EFH has effectively hedged an estimated 96% and 41% of the price exposure, on a natural gas equivalent basis.”
I have seen some estimates that say EFH could make it to 2014 but I assume that would require Nat. Gas to double by then.
Most of that loss seems like accounting tricks to pay less income tax to me. That $1200 goodwill charge is a common trick.
Energy companies playing accounting games?!
Shocked I tell. Shocked.
I keep telling you people it’s ALL rigged.
you tell them, you show them facts, but the clowns keep voting GOP as they like the feeling of being hosed.
The Ds keep giving them things to vote against…
We voted no on Romney.
Did you get the news?
Who is “we”? That has nothing to do with why so many voted for him. If the subject is who won the election I have no need to comment. But the subject was people who vote GOP and their relative clownishness.
CRAAAAAAAATERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!
http://wallstreetonparade.com/2013/02/senator-orrin-hatch-drops-a-bombshell-at-jack-lew%E2%80%99s-confirmation-hearing/
where’s the outrage?
oh yeah…he’s obama’s nominee.
party on wayne!
There’s quite a bit of outrage on the Firedoglake blog. And it’s not exactly what one would call a right-wing blog. It’s on the left and has never been a real Obama fan. Sort of like Digby’s Hullabaloo.
FED Money-Printing for Bank Theft is Leading to High Rising Food …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOEAj1A2Zr8 - 180k -
NY Times Documentary Op-Ed today re: drones.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/opinion/drones-for-america.html?hp
For clues we can look to Pakistan, where the United States has killed thousands in drone strikes. Some Pakistani children reportedly have trouble studying and have dropped out of school because of the fear of drones buzzing overhead; some adults are afraid to gather publicly or attend weddings and funerals.
We should ban drone use over United States skies outright — or get ready to embrace the city of glass.
——-
This guy’s other op-ed documentaries are really good as well. Especially the nutria one.
thousands in drone strikes.
And mostly in last 4 yrs, too. Nobel Peace?
Just more efficient and cost effective. O is smart enough to know boots on the ground is not fiscally conservative. (Bush, did not care what he spent) Neither did Reagan.
know your party.
Killing is all about cost savings?
Wars are expensive and cost lives. Don’t start em (Bush), if you don’t want the consequences and expense. You can be anti drone and pro war.
I say cut the military 50%, then see if they can afford drones.
(throws”BS Flag”)
Nobody can hear drones “buzzing overhead”. The Predators/Reapers fly around 10K feet AGL. Can’t hear them. Can barely see them.
Don’t know why everyone is crying about drones. They can’t do anything that a F-16/A-10/B-1/B-52/RC-135 “Rivet Joint”/Global Hawk/E-8 Joint STARS/U-2 can do, at ten times the cost.
Just like Republicans to bitch about the government actually saving money, disproving their “government is always stupid/inefficient” screed.
Don’t know why everyone is crying about drones.
What part of killing that you have no problems with? How many children’s limbs you want to blow? When will you stop?
I mean it’s like arguing with drones themselves…Jesus fucking Christ!
8: how much of the military budget do you want to cut?
Where you for or against invading Iraq?
I think what GS is saying is that we are already blowing up women and children (to protect freedom), so what’s the difference in how we do it?
And we thought happy days are here again just a month ago.
{LATimes}
California’s budget windfall could end soon, officials say
The governor’s budget office advises in a report that the surprise $5-billion bump in revenue in January may be an accounting anomaly.
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/50852555/ns/technology_and_science-the_new_york_times/
Meanwhile, WWIII continues in the shadows…Hey! But did you catch that All-Star game! Please open you fellow Americans’ eyes.
Senator Elizabeth Warren asking some polite questions of purported regulators:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mavB1lbtIow
Why is there only one person in the US House or Senate asking these sorts of questions? I’m sincerely curious.
At Harvard Law, she was known as Socrates with a Machine Gun.
She is too dumb to realize it’s called grandstanding. She will learn slowly….I will give her few months.
I’m actually quite impressed she’s willing to ask these questions. I hope she doesn’t require an extra security detail as a result of this impudent line of questioning.
FYI, grandstanding typically involves self-aggrandizement. I saw no self-aggrandizement here. Just simple questions designed to elucidate the issue of SDIs (Systematically Dangerous Institutions) and their extra-legal standing.
Also, Wall Street has managed to co-opt and undermine the government regulatory structure designed to limit its ability to impose public costs. To paraphrase Carville, “Drag a 100 dollar bill through Congress, you never know what you might find.” I do hope she manages to resist the carrots and sticks proferred and threatened by Wall Street.
socrates would know that those questions would be much more sutiable for obama, geithner, and especially holder…she is more like rip van winkle with a water pistol.
All in good time, michael. BTW, there’s a really good video of her ripping Geithner a new one. Here’s the linky-link.
Who needs regulations? The free market is always good to the people:
The Automobile Association of America reported that national retail prices for regular gasoline are up 13 percent to an average $3.748 a gallon from a month ago, up from $3.604 a week ago and up 5 percent from the same period a year ago.
About one million barrels per day of refining capacity has been taken off line on the East Coast and St. Croix, as the industry responds to low margins and shrinking demand. In January, Hess announced plans to close its Port Reading, N.J., refinery, while refinery shutdowns and planned repairs have cut into gasoline supplies in many parts of the country.
Just think how cheap gas is going to get when ALL of the refineries are shut down for maintenance.
The squid will get theirs, no matter what…….even if it means trashing the rest of the economy to do it.
“…when ALL of the refineries are shut down for maintenance.”
LOLOLOL! It’s pretty hilarious how ALL refineries tend break down and need maintenance at exactly the same time…
So long as central banks keep buying gold to prop up the price, gold bugs should have nothing to worry about.
Silver lining for gold investors: Once the current stock market bubble bursts, there is sure to be a flight-to-quality move back to gold. This should be a great time for dips to buy!
Feb. 19, 2013, 3:14 p.m. EST
Gold settles lower for fourth straight session
By Myra P. Saefong and Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Gold futures fell Tuesday for a fourth session in a row to log their lowest settlement since mid-August, as a climb in U.S. equities helped draw investors away from the precious metal.
Prices have now tallied a four-session loss of more than $45 an ounce pressured, in part, by a lack of demand from China, which celebrated the Lunar New Year last week and uncertainty over the so-called global currency wars. Read: How gold will benefit from a currency war.
Gold for delivery in April (GCJ3 -1.91%) fell $5.30, or 0.3%, to settle at $1,604.20 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, holding above $1,600 throughout the trading session.
The settlement was the lowest for a most-active gold futures contract since Aug. 14, according to FactSet data. Prices lost $26 on Friday, and U.S. markets were closed for Presidents Day on Monday.
“Investors continue to buy racier assets such [as] equities rather than gold and silver,” said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at GFT Markets, in a note.
Silver for delivery in March (SIH3 -3.16%) shed 43 cents, or 1.4%, to end at $29.42 an ounce.
It’s “too early to be highly bearish on gold,” said Chintan Karnani, an independent bullion analyst based in New Delhi, but Comex gold is “looking marginally bearish and can fall to $1,592 as long as it trades below $1,615.”
…
“Prices have now tallied a four-session loss of more than $45 an ounce pressured, in part, by a lack of demand from China, which celebrated the Lunar New Year last week…”
I thought the Chinese investors were going to save the gold price from crashing further?
“…and uncertainty over the so-called global currency wars. Read: How gold will benefit from a currency war.”
Conversely, since the G-20 nations lined up last weekend to agree on measures to avert a currency war, I guess we can expect further gold price weakness ahead.
Luckily for gold bugs, it appears that central banks are willing to step up as buyers of last resort, as otherwise we could see a serious price collapse.
Oh no — not the dreaded broken triangle pattern! Say it ain’t so!!
Feb. 19, 2013, 8:23 a.m. EST
Gold breaks triangle pattern to the downside
Nigam Arora is an engineer, nuclear physicist, author, and entrepreneur and the founder of two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies. He is also the developer of the ZYX Change Method to profit from change by investing. The premise is that most money is made by predicting change before the crowd.
By Nigam Arora
On February 12, 2013, I published “Gold is at a critical juncture.” Events since then have shown that the article was spot on.
Gold has fallen out of bed. A picture is worth a thousand words. The chart below shows updated long-term analysis of gold.
The fundamental premise behind the last writing was that there is a misperception about currency wars. I wrote that there are no currency wars, just skirmishes.
Since then, both G-7 and G-20 have issued statements that show that not only there is not a currency war now, but none is likely in the near future.
The technical premise of the prior writing was that gold was tracing a symmetrical triangle. As of this writing, gold has broken the symmetrical triangle to the downside. So far gold has closed twice under the lower side of the triangle. In my analysis, a confirmation of a downside move requires three successive closes below the lower side of the triangle.
The historical data shows that even after a decisive break down below a symmetrical triangle, there is lots of backing and filling before the eventual target is reached. In this regard, it is instructive to look at support levels.
…
And now, for the Maury Povich “Amour Moment du Jour”……..
Last May, I reported on the blissful marriage of my youngest, and her “30 day leave to sweep her off her feet” romance and marriage with her former high school boyfriend/man-whore.
The new hubby returned from Korea in late January. They began looking for a new love nest at his new base when he got back.
Seems that landlords don’t want to rent places to people with Great Danes as their house pets. (Did I forget to mention my daughter’s acquisition of a Great Dane?). Turmoil and recriminations ensue. Then the fights started.
Then the new hubby defaults back to his inner man-whore, and (between bouts of getting plowed/$hit-faced) starts texting all of the girls he knows, trying to arrange hook-ups, because the new wifey is such a bitch. Photos included, just so the ladies know what they are getting……
Unfortunately, most of the girls he knows are also friends with the PITA new wifey. Many of his texts are forwarded to wifey’s phone. More turmoil ensues.
The short version? They are getting divorced, as soon as they can scrounge up enough money. I didn’t win the betting pool. I gave it six months. The winner estimated 3 weeks.
The -fixr checked with his attorney to see if an annulment was possible. Found out that unless there are special circumstances, an annulment requires some act of “fraud” to be committed by one of the parties involved.
So an annulment is out, unless she was 15 or younger, or was marrying her brother, or he was already married to someone else. None of which apply (as far as I know).
I remember when I used to think Jerry Springer guests were faking it. Then I got older, and found out that Springer doesn’t even scratch the surface……….
Sorry to say, but I’m not surprised to hear that the marriage didn’t last long.
I have found all of the Greg Iles and Nelson DeMille books I love to be the same. Truth is stranger than fiction.
And Dave Barry and Carl Hiaasen.
True story: Dave Barry’s first newspapering job was with the paper in the town where I grew up. That would be The Daily Local News in West Chester, PA.
Barry’s op-ed pieces were LOL funny. Even my mother liked them. And she’s not easily amused.
I saw Dave Barry speak at a Jewish Center. He opened with this:
“There’s been a terrible mistake. I am not Jewish!”
Keep em separated. They will get back together.
I’m sorry. That sucks when it happens to friends and family.
Sorry dude.
I have 3 daughters and sometimes their bad decisions are mind boggling. Then I try to remember I was 28 before I figured out my father knew what he was talking about. My problem is my youngest is 15 and I don`t think I`m gonna be alive in 13 years.
Hang in there — she needs you!
That said, I have the feeling my 18-year-old daughter’s habits may be the death of me before I survive another ten years.
GS, much empathy. There IS a positive in this.
At least she’s a girl. You were spared the lethal exposures, not having boys. With boys, if you can keep them alive till they’re 25, you’re home free. Car wrecks, proving ‘manliness’ by doing dumb ass things, getting into fights - there is no end to the list. Truly a Darwinian exercise, it is.
If you can keep them alive until their neural circuitry jells and their prefrontal cortex is somewhat in balance with their testosterone, you can start breathing again. But that doesn’t happen till they’re 25 (give or take a few months).
The sitting on the edge of your seat, having heart palpitations and and biting your fingernails off every time they are out of your sight lasts from age 14-25. That’s eleven years. Truly, they are safer in the military than on their own. Their lives are regimented and they can’t do anything about it: Uncle Sam exercises an enormous amount of vigilance over his property. It was a relief sending my oldest off to the Marines. My older son was safer in the Marines than he was out of my sight as a civilian. All boys need babysitters until they are 25. The Marine Corps was my babysitter, and heaven knows by the time he was out of school, he still needed one badly.
Sons frequently involve others’ daughters in their dramas.
Chin up, be of good cheer - as long as she’s not on drugs, at least she’ll be alive when she’s 25. Her best posture is to take it with a grain of salt. I pray she does not let her friends talk her into having a baby to make it all come out OK as if by majick.
Daughters are dumb too: in their narcissism, they do not want to understand that actions arising from a sense of drama have long tails. BUT - at least they remain alive to learn the consequences the old fashioned way.
Sending you a ‘filias’-type, virtual, and very empathetic - hug!
Don’t you HBB guys remember what total idjits and f-ups you all were when you were entirely controlled by raging hormones?
Congratulations, Gulfie!
Let’s just hope she/you get out of this with only a Great Dane to worry about. That was a close one….
T rowe Price annual report reads that they “T rowe” is allocating out of bonds into stocks. But the public has been switching into bonds out of stocks.
Spreads are poor from high risk to low risk Bonds and interest rates are so low on all bonds that to want to buy them you must have a really dim view of the future.
Other stuff about 3rd world bonds like Brazil, China Russia being interesting ( not to me ).
Got a link?
Isn’t it interesting that stock pimps have been harping a few family members to buy bond funds. And these family members came to me individually to discuss…. not knowing the other was approached by a stock pimp to do buy bonds.
Yeah…. there’s a problem.
How do laws designed to prevent banks from pursuing foreclosures reduce housing distress? I’d think the inability to pay an overpriced mortgage would be very distressing, whether or not there was a risk the bank was going to foreclose.
Mortgage defaults hit 7-year low
By Lily Leung
12:01 p.m.Feb. 19, 2013
Housing distress in San Diego County has lost considerable steam during the past two years. Will a new state law suppress it for good?
Mortgage defaults in the county are at their lowest level in nearly 7-1/2 years while foreclosures are hovering near a six-year low, based on the latest numbers from real estate tracker DataQuick.
Tuesday’s report covers all of January, the first full month since new homeowner protections went into effect statewide.
One part of the Homeowner Bill of Rights prevents banks from starting the foreclosure process while a loan modification or short sale is in progress, a practice called dual tracking. The provision is meant to help borrowers who are making genuine strides toward saving their homes, only to learn that their bank decided to foreclose on their property.
Brian Ruhl, a San Diego real estate agent whose specialty is short sales, said banks such as Wells Fargo and JP Morgan Chase began paying attention to the dual-tracking rule even before it officially took effect. He noticed that starting in mid-2012, they stopped issuing a notice of default if a homeowner was undergoing a short sale or loan modification.
Notices of default, which signal the start of the foreclosure process, saw a dramatic fall in January throughout the county. A total of 310 were filed, a 65 percent drop from December and a 78 percent from the same month a year ago.
Filing activity fell among all the major loan servicers, the companies to which borrowers send their mortgage payments, DataQuick figures show. Bank of America filed 12 notices of default in January, down from 266 the same time a year ago, a 96 percent decrease. Bank of America and other major lenders don’t routinely address third-party data.
Foreclosures bumped up in January but are still near a six-year low set in December, according to DataQuick. The county recorded 381 repossessions, up 7 percent from December but down 48 percent year-over-year.
Another factor that has kept home repossessions and mortgage defaults suppressed is the rise of short sales, considered more favorable than foreclosures because they put less of a dent on credit reports, usually cost less for everyone involved and give borrowers a quicker chance at homeownership again.
Short sales — lender-approved deals that allow homeowners to sell their properties for less than what they still owe — made up more than one-fifth of of the total housing market in San Diego County, according to an estimate from DataQuick.
…
Would now be a good time to sell the stock market rally?
Come on in, folks, the water is fine!
ABREAST OF THE MARKET
February 18, 2013, 6:25 p.m. ET
Investors Finally Shed Fears
Comfort Level Is Increasing That Another Major Market Meltdown Isn’t Lurking
By TOM LAURICELLA
In the constant battle between fear and greed for U.S. investor sentiment, fear appears finally to be losing ground.
Individual investors are doing more stock trading. Mutual-fund companies are seeing money being put to work in both stocks and bonds. Advisers say they are hearing from investors who had been hunkered down for years but now are feeling more comfortable that another big meltdown isn’t lurking around the corner.
That doesn’t mean greed has completely replaced fear. But as the worries that have dogged investors since the financial crisis finally begin to ease, a greater engagement in the markets could help stocks continue their grind higher.
With a slight gain last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has moved higher for seven consecutive weeks, its longest stretch of weekly gains since January 2011. For the year, the S&P is up 6.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, finished last week just 182 points shy of its record and is up 6.7% so far in 2013.
“I think we’re seeing fear fatigue,” said Darell Krasnoff, managing director at Los Angeles-based Bel Air Investment Advisors.
…
While the scene is certainly dramatic, my impression is that in real life, white sharks don’t toy around with their prey as depicted in that movie. Brings to mind the fate of unsuspecting Wall Street investors who get in just before a major selloff.
It is a good sign that it is about time to leave the party when Marketwatch dot com starts running articles like this one.
Feb. 19, 2013, 12:35 p.m. EST
How to know when it’s time to leave the party
Commentary: The track record of the 200-day moving average
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — How would you like to find an indicator that would reliably let you know when the bull market has finally come to an end?
I thought so.
And you’re not alone. Investors — tantalized as they are by the prospect of the stock market “melting up” as the trillions currently in bond funds get transferred into equities — don’t want to prematurely leave the party Wall Street has been throwing. Yet they also are worried about the downside risks of a bull market that is unquestionably getting rather long in the tooth.
…
So they’ve all piled in in hopes of a melt up? This ought to be good…
Feb. 19, 2013, 4:39 p.m. EST
S&P closes at 5-year high as U.S. stocks gain
Google shares top $800 for first time; M&A inspires buyers
By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks ended higher Tuesday, pushing the S&P 500 index to a five-year high, buoyed by a rise in corporate deal activity and an improvement in German investor sentiment.
“Recent mergers and acquisitions are further evidence of just how high the mountain of cash has grown for corporate America,” said Andrew Fitzpatrick, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates.
“These companies are starting to be forced to possibly pursue deals, raise dividends or buy back stock, all of which are key drivers that could move stocks higher,” he said.
…
Week ahead: Sequester looms
Next week brings reports on housing and consumer prices, but the spotlight may be dominated by the approaching March 1 spending cuts known as the sequester.
Feb. 19, 2013, 7:55 a.m. EST
Market still not reacting to the bears’ growls
By Avi Gilburt
Table-pounding bearish calls have died down some over the last week, with the market still not reacting to the bears’ growls. But will the bears have their day in the sun, or will the market simply continue to climb?
Last week, I noted how many analysts and pundits were paraded through Marketwatch and CNBC calling for a correction. I also said that the correction will not occur when all these people expect it to. Well, as the voices of the “correction advocates” have died down or become much more unsure of themselves over the last week, the market has now taken another step toward a correction.
Also note that the type of correction to which I refer is more likely going to be a pullback of 3%-5%, as the full 10%+ correction is much less likely just yet. But much depends on how high we go before the correction begins. If we continue higher to the 1550 region, then there is a greater likelihood of a 10% correction before we see another rally to new highs for the year.
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So… the Tampa Bay Times just rolled out a new website that looks… a lot like The Onion.
http://www.tampabay.com/
http://www.theonion.com/
FAIL. (SUCCEED?)
Tampa’s Finest News Source!
They want to take guns away from who?
Towns to pay $3.5M in deadly cop raid
Daniel Tepfer
Updated 1:47 pm, Tuesday, February 19, 2013
BRIDGEPORT — Five local towns, that provided the officers for the heavily-armed SWAT team that killed an unarmed Norwalk man during a raid of an Easton home four years ago, have agreed to pay $3.5 million to settle a lawsuit brought by the victim’s family.
Sources connected to the case confirmed that the towns of Easton, Monroe, Trumbull, Wilton and Darien have all signed off on the agreement to pay the sum to the family of Gonzalo Guizan.
It is believed to be the largest settlement in the state in a case involving a police shooting.
The lawyers for the town’s did not immediately return calls for comment and Morgan Rueckert, the lawyer for the Guizan family declined comment at this time.
The sources said the settlement was only for the death of Guizan and does not include the owner of the Easton home, Ronald Terebesi, who was not shot but claimed emotional damages as well as damages to his home in the May 18, 2008 raid. His lawsuit against the town is pending.
“This is a clear admission of misconduct on their (the towns) part,” said Terebesi’s lawyer, Gary Mastronardi. “There is undisputed evidence Guizan and Terebesi were huddled in a corner when police shot. This is just the first of two shoes that have dropped.”
Easton First Selectman Thomas A. Herrmann said in a statement: “While the defendants, police departments and officers from Darien, Easton, Trumbull, Monroe and Wilton maintain they were not responsible for the unfortunate death of Mr. Guizan, the insurers for the defendants, who will bear the full cost of the settlement, believed that it was best to resolve the matter rather than incur further attorneys’ fees, which were anticipated to be significant. The defendants concurred, further believing it was important to facilitate the Guizan family being relieved of the combined burden of litigation.”
Herrmann added that the “reasonable” settlement is “fully insured and will not have a direct cost to the towns.”
The 33-year-old Guizan was shot half a dozen times by Monroe officer Michael Sweeney during the raid at Terebesi’s home at 91 Dogwood Drive in Easton.
Guizan had been watching television in the home with Terebesi, when the 21-member police team, armed with automatic weapons, broke down the door and threw flash grenades inside.
The lawsuit states that then Easton Police Chief John Solomon and present chief James Candee made the decision to call in SWERT after an exotic dancer who had earlier been at the home told them she saw Terebesi and Guizan take “something” out of a small tin, place it in two small glass smoking pipes and smoke it. She never told officers there were weapons in the home, the suit states.
The lawsuit also claims Sweeney shot Guizan after becoming disoriented when one of the flash grenades deployed by police detonated in front of him and after another officer erroneously shouted he had been shot.
Read more: http://www.ctpost.com/local/article/Towns-to-pay-3-5M-in-deadly-cop-raid-4290145.php#ixzz2LO0ckhoT
I just got Office 2013. and WORD’s spell check does not work, no matter what I try!! Uhg!! MSFT bites. Googled for answers…nada!
Did you know the “real endorsers” that appear in AngiesList commercials are housing crime syndicate operators like mortgage pimps?
Now you do.
A story that should warm banana boy’s heart
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_22622252/hickenlooper-threatens-veto-firefighter-unions-bill-present-form
I’m not sure how complete its reported MLS listings are, but Redfin dot com shows only 1,426 single-family homes, condos and townhouses on the market, just as the red-hot spring sales season approaches. This is the lowest for sale inventory I have ever seen them report, and it seems to shrink some more every week.
30 percent (423) of these homes are listed for $1 million or more. Sadly, 3 out of 10 San Diego households are not qualified to buy in that price range.
It’s never been a better time to wait for the higher prices we keep hearing are just around the corner!
Again….. it was posted last night……
Take a trip around Zillow and you find scores of houses in your neighborhood for sale and with an MLS number yet it doesn’t appear on MLS.
You’re being scammed.
It’s hard to scam someone who is permanently out of the market.
North Jersey foreclosures haunt neighbors
Sunday, May 13, 2012
BY KATHLEEN LYNN
Maywood homeowner Joe Leichtnam spent some time recently trimming the shrubs, mowing the lawn and fixing the siding.
Not at his house; at the empty house next door. It’s a small effort to contain the chaos at the property, which is in foreclosure and has been vacant for several years. The house has a blue tarp covering a hole in the roof and overgrown bushes that threaten to engulf the deck.
The house on Edel Avenue is just one of thousands of vacant homes left by the housing bust all across North Jersey. Neighbors say they’re discouraged and disheartened by the sight of these neglected homes, which can remain empty for years while the foreclosure process grinds slowly forward.
“It just detracts from the whole neighborhood,” said Leichtnam, a retired telecommunications professional. “It definitely has an impact on the value of the homes in the area.”
http://www.northjersey.com/news/151276055_North_Jersey_foreclosures_haunt_neighbors.html
Well Joe js is here to help. Take this little ditty, paint it on some plywood and place it at the entrance to your neighborhood.
It’s a beautiful day in this neighborhood,
A beautiful day for a squatter.
Would you be mine?
Could you be mine?…
It’s a neighborly day in this beauty wood,
A lawn mowing squatter would spruce up the hood.
Would you be mine?
Could you be mine?…
I’ve always wanted to have a neighbor just like you.
I’ve always wanted to live near a squatter too.
So, let’s make the most of this beautiful day.
You can live here and you don`t have to pay:
Would you be mine?
Could you be mine?
Won’t you be my neighbor?
Won’t you please,
Foreclosure Freeze?
Please won’t you be my neighbor?
!
In case anybody missed it, a(nother) succint gem from ahansen last night:
“Braised crow:
1 Crow
1 bucketful of depleted uranium scatter shot
1 perchlorate polluted aquifer
Mix thoroughly with $722 soup ladle, cover with pallets of $100 bills and wait until it falls apart.
Serve cold. Garnish with colorful ribbons and shiny medals.”
Jeez, do you come up with these metaphors just off the top of your head? I’m hoping that more people appreciated it than just me! I’ll never be able to think about DoD cuts in quite the same way, after reading that! Hats off to you!
It’s a double-edged gift. Thanks for getting it.