The Housing Bubble

Friday evening and Saturday, yes. Yesterday, no.
I am enjoying (very) slowly trying (and not quite succeeding) to improve the yard.

I stopped off at my HD twice this weekend to get mulch and annuals for my house and my in-laws. Parking lot was full around 1pm and again around 4pm on Saturday. First 60 degree day here in 2013 explains part of that, though. It’s usually only half full (largely contractors) but Saturday it was homedebtors. You can tell because of the confused looks when homedebtors come face to face with 14 varieties of insulation or 31 different hammer drills.

Contractors don’t frequent HomeCheapo.

Honest folk were out raking the yard Saturday. Now it’s snowing again. Set to bounce back up into the 60s. Time to launch the cabin cruiser pretty soon! Must get off land before the debt donkey cottagers migrate back.

Pimp, do you have any suggestions as to where to buy home stuff? Or could you tell me what, if anything, from Home Depot/Lowe’s is acceptable? Their lumber is probably not as good. But HBB had a huge discussion that hand tools like hammers are just as good. And plumbers tell me that the fixtures from Home Despot and Lowe’s, especially the higher end, are no different than you would get in any pro showroom. I visited four showrooms looking for a vanity and decided on one from Lowe’s. And really, how can you screw up mulch and annual flowers?

Contractors don’t frequent HomeCheapo ??

Thats the biggest lie that I have seen in quite sometime…Go look at the parking lot @ 6:30 AM and tell me who is shopping…Gee’s…What BS…

HD and Lowe’s carry mid range tools and materials. A professional would never shop there. An example: The new types of four
or eight foot florescent shop lamps look identical to those at the electrical wholesale house until you look at the ballasts. The ones
from HD or L’s are much smaller, noisier, less efficient, and can give you the high frequency
flicker effect. And the tools? All mid-range
in quality and price.

My local lumber yard in general carries higher quality tools than Low’s. Just my experience. They also have a price advantage on building supplies, if you have an account. They also deliver stuff for free. They also have lower prices on bulk fastners.

I see all sorts of contractors at my local HD, especially buying lumber.

They go wherever it’s convenient and they can get a good deal, when they’re buying materials. They may buy their personal tools from Snap-On or some such, but that’s not a daily purchase.

Well yeah, I live in the city, these contractors are the kind of guys needing relatively small amounts of supplies in a timely fashion, not their heavy duty tools. Lots of homes in my area get gutted out and redone one room or floor at a time and many of these contractors are small operators, not big remodeling companies. They may need a few pieces of dry wall or a bucket of thin set etc. Any morning at 6-7am it’s busy and the lot is 1/2 full of F350s, panel vans, and similar. Lots of these guys seem to pick up day labor (of the brown skinned variety) in the parking lot as well.

On weekends is when you see the homedebtors out in force. They seem to have no idea what they’re doing.

Homedebt is an addiction. Low’s is the porn shop.

And the tools? All mid-range in quality and price ??

Really…Hilti….Bosch…..Mid-range quality ??

@Blue Skye - I agree with you, I was just answering the question posed, whether or not HD in the area seems to be busy. Unfortunately, the answer is yes.

HD and Lowes don’t carry the same thing in all stores.

This applies to tools, colors of cabinets, etc.

The HD near me sells Bosch, Milwaukee, DeWalt, Hilti, etc. They also sell mid and lower level stuff like Ryobi.

Maybe where Rancher lives it doesn’t make sense (because of store volume) to carry so many brands?

HD in my area has a big advantage in terms of location - if you’re doing a job in Fells Point or Canton, you can be at HD in 5 or 6 minutes, whereas if you want to go to some specialty store it’s going to take alot [sic] more time.

The other “advantage” HD has is easy credit. Don’t have cash on you? Just give them your HD card or your phone number.

The other competitor with a similar location advantage is Grainger, but that’s on the other side of the harbor tunnel if you’re working in Canton/Fells Point (where the good reno jobs are). I also don’t think Grainger is as convenient as HD and it’s not geared towards the same type of work.

scdave, Hilti and Bosch might make a lower-end line for HD and Lowe’s. Sure it cheapens the brand value but money is money, right? The same thing happened to Calphalon cookware when they offered a cheaper line at Tar-jhay.

Blue, I’m tired of answering you.

Hilti and Bosch might make a lower-end line for HD and Lowe’s ??

I don’t think so…I have seen the full line of their tools at the international homebuilders shows…They are the same…

Lowe’s & HD target two segments…Sub-contractor and Mom & Pop homeowner…I am not sure which provides more revenue but my bet would be the contractor segment…

The time when Lowe’s or HD may not make sense is on large orders…Lets say 8 units of drywall or 6 units of studs…They are just not geared for that type of volume sale or delivery…

I understand Oxy, you don’t need to answer me.

The debt service though, tiring as it may be, you have to answer that. If I ever wished you any misfortune, I would have encouraged it.

Let me say it again so I’m clear.

Contractors don’t frequent Home Cheapo

Do I need to say it again?

Here…

Contractors don’t frequent Home Cheapo

Now…. let me ask. How many of you are contractors? How many of you execute $100 million or more of work a year? How about $10million? about $2 million? That’s right…. not a single one of you.

For my E contracts…. do you really think Home Cheapo junk meets spec? I’m here to tell you it doesn’t. And what is there is 2x the cost of a supply house. How about drop ins with battery backup? Get real. Go ahead…. go down to home cheapo and ask for a gasketed Quazite box. Report back to me your experience.

For P contracts….. Do you really think HomeCheapo has Terrazzo prec-cast shower pans? Really? Do you think Cheapo can provide something as simple as copper tubing for less than a supply house? They can’t and don’t. Supply houses are a fraction of the cost of Cheapo.

For structural and architectural IFS/EFS contracts…. do you really think you’ll find 18 gauge steel studs? And after I’m done waiting 2 weeks for Cheapo to source them and get them to my site, I’m going to pay them triple over what my competitors pay at a supply house?

Let me say it again for the benefit of the brainwashed housign junkies and ham and eggers….

Contractors don’t frequent Home Cheapo

Contractors don’t frequent Home Cheapo

Then they pay people to pretend they’re contractors, and to drive white work vans and the like, and to buy big batches of lumber there.

Or maybe you’re wrong.

Stop being a douche. You’re a builder or General Contactor, obviously you wouldn’t go to home depot. Plenty of small contractors, small businesses and subs shop at home depot. Key word here is small. Bobody was saying that All contractors shop there. Now before you say I don’t know what I am talking about I will let you know that I own a small business and I do shop there.

Get off your high horse…. Sheesh..

Here:

Contractors don’t frequent Home Cheapo

And you go to Cheapo because you’re not a contractor.

“The debt service though, tiring as it may be, you have to answer that. ”

Why?

“The debt service though, tiring as it may be, you have to answer that. ”

Why?

Unless you are wealthy or have inherited a house, you either pay rent to a landlord or you pay to rent money from the bank.

In some locations, the monthly costs are similar. The choice from there is based on your lifestyle, your career, your family, and your personal tastes.

And at current inflated asking prices of resale housing, paying rent is half the monthly cost of buying.

Pimp is being a douche. I laid out the kind of work these guys do, obviously it isn’t big projects or new construction.

Where’s the prestige in being a contractor, are we supposed to be impressed? Like oh wow they can get 5000 sheets of drywall at a lower unit price than I can get 25 sheets. Amazing!

you either pay rent to a landlord or you pay to rent money from the bank.
You left out (3) pay rent to the government (4) have someone else pay to house you or (5) sleep in a hollow log or cardboard box.

No… You’re backpedalling because you jumped in a conversation too early figuring I wasn’t going to back myself up.

A harpsichordist and part time barrister is now pretending to be a contractor. You go girl!

I buy some of the stuff from Erie materials for my building. They do deliver and have a helpful technical center. They designed and ordered a cricket for part of my torch down roof 2 years ago and it worked out quite well.

Electrical stuff from Greybar and the Heating/ Air conditioning stuff from Total Line

Where could I buy aluminum siding? I have some patching & panel revision to do, but no local contractor seems to be interested in using aluminum. Aluminum is what I mostly have & am satisfied with. All they want to do is a tearoff & installation of vinyl siding.

For God sakes grow a set and tell them what you want.

The Pimp knows everything. Haven’t you guys been paying attention?

We just happen to earn alot of money in the contruction biz. ALOT of money.

You? You pretend to know something about construction in order to make yourself and your housing junkie friends feel better about paying massively inflated prices. In the end, you’re suckers.

… and yet you whine about replacement alternators for honda civics, which can easily be had for about $100

And this isn’t about you pretending to be an auto mechanic either my Harpsichordist friend.

Quazite boxes are those boxes in your easements that electric utilities are buried in. Most contractors aren’t burying utilities and telco as part of their jobs; actual utility companies or specialized utility contractors do that in most parts of the country.

QZ’s are used for alot of things…. swimming pool pumps, site lighting, in lieu of valve boxes for sprinkler systems… so yes…. most contractors are burying utilities.

Did you price a QZ at Cheapo? It’s triple the price of a supply house. Did you get the turnaround time on it from Cheapo? 2 weeks. That’s 2 weeks longer than a supply house.

Contractors don’t frequent Cheapo

I have some patching & panel revision to do, but … all they want to do is a tearoff & installation of vinyl siding.

And that’s the crux of the issue, and it’s also why you see so many homeowners in Home Despot. It’s all about patching, repairing, switching out fixtures or moulding or plumbing, and landscaping or re-landscaping existing houses in the pre-1980 inner suburbs with decent commutes.

Big contractors aren’t interested in saving what’s still good. All they can do is rip down and/or start from scratch. So, enter the small outfits, handymen, and individual homeowners who do things themselves. Why is this a bad thing? Is it really so bad to be clueless? You have to start somewhere.

And this is why the residual value of a 20+ year old house is near zero.

Seems like a huge waste of money to use those boxes to bury $50 sprinkler system parts when a $15 plastic box will do equally well but I guess you are trying to make some kind of a point. Lawn mowers can be heavy I guess…

I think it’s you that’s attempting to make a point. You’re not doing a very good job of it.

Everybody knows Sacramento is HOT, but if you had to pick between Modesto or Fresno, where would you choose? Everybody wants to live in Modesto or Fresno (or Bakersfield, too). Pack up the U-Haul today! And HURRY!

Hmmm… AAPL is going to locate a server farm in Fresno so that’s tempting, definitely going to be thousands of good long term jobs from that. On the other hand, Amazon is going to open a warehouse in Bakersfield. Oh, and there’s a Wells Fargo call center coming soon to SacTown.

So many touch choices.

Bakersfield, Stockton, Fresno.

Who knew that CA had THREE armpits?

I forgot Modesto and Chico.

Pack up the U-Haul today!

An oldie but goodie! Ah, the memories! Imagine you’re some middle manager tiring of your flyover life and just want to junk it all and strike it rich in RE:

17′ U-Haul from Indianapolis to Bakersfield: $1301
17′ U-Haul from Bakersfield to Indianapolis: $2699

living in the Sac area I find this thread hilarious…

“I forgot Modesto…”

That would be the bunghole.

LMAO at this thread. Don’t forget Manteca (lard) and Los Banos (the bathrooms).

Also, it is another example of the billionaires eating the millionaires. When Obama talks about millionaires and billionaires it is absurd to lump them into the same category. Instead of going after billionaires that are the real beneficiaries of globalization, countries are destroying millionaires which are the small business people that actually employ people within their countries.

<”Yep—there’s nothing like a crisis to aid in pretending to help the people, while actually shearing the sheeple.”</I.

It’s even better when you manufacture the crisis!

“millionaires and billionaires it is absurd to lump them into the same category”

Yup. Like lumping thousandaires and millionaires together.

It was cattle futures, but don’t let 20 years interfere with you talking points.

Later on in life, you can contribute the max to get the match and then disburse the original contribution back to yourself. That’s a pretty good return too.

When your only tax shelter as a wage slave is a 401k, you max it out regardless of match.

We’re not allow entry into the lucrative tax shelters.

The bankster is not your friend.

rumor

Yup. It’s all a rumor. Nothing to see…your money is safe…..

http://sigmalive.com/news/local/38012

The rumor is the big rich got their money out with their crony-connections
Before the rumor, there would have been an entirely reasonable assumption that cronies would have gotten the word well ahead of time & acted to save themselves, an assumption based on history & knowledge of human nature.

Why didn’t the people use thier guns?

If Jesus shot anyone it would be the money changers. The only act of violence by him in the Gospels was directed at them by over turning their tables at the Temple and driving them off with a whip if I remember correctly. I say the banksters are the modern day money changers.

Great link concerning the temple and money changers:

http://christianpf.com/why-did-jesus-drive-the-money-changers-from-the-temple/

Brilliant academics have a long history of making spectacularly wrong predictions about what will happen in the real world.

Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.

– Irving Fisher (1929)

Brilliant academics have a long history of making spectacularly wrong predictions about what will happen in the real world. YOU CAN SAY THAT AGAIN.
28 March 2007: “At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained,” Ben Bernanke said in prepared testimony to Congress’ Joint Economic Committee.

Their arguments are still worth listening to, because it can cause you to revise your own ways of thinking. Few people would really want to live in what the left or right consider a “utopia”. Moreover it is not practical. The point stands that Krugman has a Nobel for a reason and this is nearly entirely separate from whether we should adopt his recommendations into policy. Saying he is wrong about “everything” would be spectacularly ridiculous. Much of Krugman’s academic work is now widely accepted across the spectrum when it comes to international trade, much like academics accept much of the work of Milton F, John M. Keynes, etc. It doesn’t mean they want it as policy. And, FWIW, we’ve never really adopted *any* of these folk’s pure ideas into policy. It would’ve actually been an amazingly good thing if Greenspan had pulled his head out of his Ayn Rand-stuff ass and raised interest rates when the economy was strong to slow down the buildup of credit/leverage. It wouldn’t been amazing if Congress had paid down the debt/balanced the budget rather than have Medicare Part D. But when people talk about Keynesianism being disproven, they have no f’ing idea what they’re talking about.

The only position I’m taking is that to your average voter, these academics mean nothing beyond what the cable news show shorthand says. We shouldn’t “follow” Keynes or Krugman but we also shouldn’t “follow” Adam Smith or Ayn Rand, etc. We should realize the underlying assumptions they make and the limitations of their writing for our real world situations.

We should realize the underlying assumptions they make and the limitations of their writing for our real world situations.
The electorate should work to understand its real world situation. This is not currently the case & doesn’t seem likely to happen. Meanwhile, on with the show!

‘when people talk about Keynesianism being disproven, they have no f’ing idea what they’re talking about’

Well, we’ve had lots of deficit spending the last few years and unemployment hardly budged.

‘the limitations of their writing for our real world situations’

It’s hard to “disprove” ideas like fake space alien invasions and digging ditches and filling them back in, because it’s so dumb nobody will ever try it.

“Their arguments are still worth listening to, because it can cause you to revise your own ways of thinking.”

Listening to these highly-touted academicians blather on about the real world as though they own a crystal ball which can accurately predict the future or have policy levers to pull which can make their fantasies come true has led me to drastically revise downward the faith I put in their statements.

We haven’t tried Keynesianism because we did not pay down debt, run a surplus, raise interest rates, or control credit when the economy was good. Instead, we aimed for even lower levels of unemployment by continuing to juice the market. We were at unemployment levels that were too low.

We also placed far too little emphasis on education and young people, continuing to confer benefits to the older generations in terms of Med. Part D, juiced up pensions, and lower taxes on capital gains. So basically we spent money that should’ve been used to bolster our future and instead plowed it into nearly-retired or fully-retired people. Very ineffective.

We really did not. We also did not have enough productive infrastructure spending in ‘08-’09 because we were fighting no one but TWO idiotic decade-long wars.

And again, I’m not saying we should adopt any policy wholesale. But it’s a lie to say we tried Keynes’ ideas. We *barely* tried deficit spending, but as noted above it was very limited in its effectiveness because the economy was already running on deficit spending, much of which was directed at unproductive things like transfer payments to old people and nation-building/wars in other countries. Idiotic.

‘We also did not have enough productive infrastructure spending in ‘08-’09 because we were fighting no one but TWO idiotic decade-long wars’

No, no. To Keynes, war is good. Remember how WW2 got us out of the great depression? It wasn’t true, but that’s what they say. And this is why Krugman thinks a fake space alien invasion would do the trick today; we would borrow and spend like crazy to keep Marvin the Martian from shooting down the Blue Angels.

‘We haven’t tried Keynesianism because…it was very limited in its effectiveness because…’

If a theory can’t be put into practice, what good is it?

If a theory can’t be put into practice, what good is it?

yes, but it’s even worse than that. it’s true it can’t be put into practice because no one can accurately predict up turns and down turn or how long they will last. so it simply can’t ever be done.

the second point is that, even if it could be done it would be detrimental to the economy. money that’s taken out of the economy to accomplish some type of keynesian demand management (public works), will never been used in more productive businesses that are guided by market oriented capital allocation. (the money gets spent in the wrong places)

in short, it’s a disastrous idea from beginning to end.

Stockman’s been saying these things for years. Youtube is full of his rants. He’s just getting around to the book circuit.

Well, to be quite honest, I had already seen Krugman’s anti-Stockman piece when I mentioned that.

Greenspan started to do that during the Clinton administration,

LOL. Try to keep it straight, even if it causes cognitive dissonance:

Volcker was appointed by Carter.

Reagan fired Volcker, and replaced him with Greenspan.

Alpha try reading the post. Greenspan did not start his easy money routine until Clinton and was reappointed for it. I never said he was first appointed under Clinton.

And Greenspan “supplied liquidity to the markets” the day after Black Monday, initiating the policy that has been known ever since as the Greenspan Put.

P.S. I disagree with Investopedia dating the term to the 1998 LTCM bailout, as the policy was in force already in 1987.

Oops- sorry Dan. Guess it was my own cognitive dissonance there;)

There is a big difference between adding liquidity for a few days and following policies that keep interest rates below inflation for a protracted period of time. That did not begin until after Bush I left office. Also, Reagan was out of office by 1989 and Greenspan was not appointed to 1987, the Reagan recovery had nothing to do with Greenspan. Reagan inherited an economy with high inflation, interest rates and unemployment and they were all fixed by 1987. It is not his fault that others did not alter policies that needed to be altered to address different problems. Obama inherited an economy with too much debt and has added to it. Had he passed a version of Simpson/Bowles and put us on a path to a balanced budget, I would not have a problem with a 2% growth economy. The next president gets a problem bigger than he inherited. The economy had stabilized by the Summer of 2009 before any of his policies had even gone into effect in any meaningful way.

Here is strong evidence that Investopedia’s dating is off by over a decade:

Black Monday and the Greenspan put
By James Saft
Fri Oct 19, 2012 3:11pm EDT

(Reuters) - The big milestone this week is not the 25th anniversary of the Black Monday crash but falls a day later when we mark the far darker advent of the Greenspan put.

The Greenspan put, the now long-established policy of easing and appeasing when markets go cold, arguably created the world in which we live - one of low growth, bubbles and, every once in a while, huge busts.

On Monday, October 19, 1987, the U.S. stock market crashed, along with falls in Asia and Europe, culminating in a 22 percent tumble in the Dow.

The exact causes are still in dispute, but currency tensions played a role, as did proposed legislation to take away some of the tax advantages of high-yield merger financings.

Margin calls, as ever, exacerbated falls, as did a then-new phenomenon, the program trade, which helped to drive volumes to then stratospheric levels and gave rise to a feeling that the machines had taken over.

Into the breach stepped Alan Greenspan, just months into an 18-year tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Early the following Tuesday, the Fed came out with a statement, one which will seem very familiar to those who participated in the other crashes, panics and simple malaises which have been the defining financial feature of the past 25 years:

“The Federal Reserve, consistent with its responsibilities as the nation’s central bank, affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system.”
…

Loveland ski area sits on top of the Eisenhower/Johnson Interstate 70 tunnel, and sat there years before the tunnels existed. The high chairlift goes all the way to the ridge, and from there you can traverse (or ride the snowcat when it’s running) to drop into the basin from points along the ridge.

Our experience with backcountry skiing is limited as of now. And the gear for it gets expensive (you will spend ALOT of money), because in addition to skis you need an avalanche beacon. Add up all of the costs associated with this sport/hobby and theyar are Incalculable.

Hey goon, check this out: backcountry.com now has the ABS Avalanche Rescue Kit on sale for only $755.44! At that price you can snap up two of them. Buy now or be priced out forever.

Hmmm I think I will stick to the comfortable, if boring, confines of ski resorts.

After a few more decades of climate change, there won’t be any skiing in the East any more.

I probably only half a little over 2 decades left to ski, having a broken hip at 50+ does not sound like a good deal. I’ve taken some bad wipe outs over the years, a 50+ version of myself would probably be laid up for weeks.

Even though we have wimpy girlyman mountains in the east, bc of the warmer temps you mention, it is often icy at night on the slopes. Much less powder than you guys have out west. Alot [sic] less.

After a few more decades of climate change, there won’t be any skiing in the East any more.

If we have a few decades with no sunspots, you will need cross country skies just to get around town during the Winter. If we are the end of the interglacial warming period that will soon be year around.

Nice pictures Goon. Joe, I am skiing every week at 70 and have a 66 year old racing instructor. Oldest racing team member is 93 with one at 91 ! Another instructor at 77.

I was waiting behind this guy who was talking to his friend about where they stayed when skiing Whistler. My friend and I guessed they each were about 55. They were 89 !

Goon, there are two things I would like to have. The ability to ski your western powder and the stamina to be able to do it.

We’re five years post crash w/no adjustment in sight. Or are you that certain this can’t be dragged out another decade? You do realize her house could be paid off before you even start looking, right? When her payments are taxes/maintenance only, yeah, she will look smarter than the renter.

Sorry, but I’m convinced these decisions are not one size fits all.

I see every decade I’ve been alive repeated.

Boom. Bust. Less jobs and less jobs that pay well. Blame the poor.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

Carl, do you mean you’re not counting on house prices going up? Well, neither am I. But what I don’t get is that nobody here seems to acknowledge the value of a paid-off house regardless of the economy. The house has value even if the price stays at what I paid for it. And for someone like me, who will have no kids to move in with and annoy, when I can no longer work, the house will have value even if the price goes to 0! Sure, the house itself will deteriorate; we’ve all seen houses where seniors aged in place. But it’s a roof over my head.

Yes…but what if we get deflation to the point that your income goes down significantly well before it’s paid off? That’s what I’ve been expecting…

If you can pay cash for your house then we’re in total agreement.

Ditto for my grandparents. The story is that they had some business which went under, so they traded their last dime for a farmhouse and acreage and lived off the crops and livestock. You can live nearly cashless, which is a good way to live during a Depression. As they said, they couldn’t buy much, but they ate well.

“Yeah, the newer vinyl-sided POSs in the exurbs have little intrinsic value.”

And houses older than that have none.

And houses older than that have none.
And here I am paying over $2000 a year in taxes on something with no value.

Can you report on ZIP 44223, specifically the area of the Falls around State Rd and Broad Blvd?

“And here I am paying over $2000 a year in taxes on something with no value.”

You have plenty of company.

It’s a big crater.

…. and growing ever deeper.

Would there be any big money to be made in urban / suburban home demolition? There seems to be a crying need for this.

How so?

I would never buy a house with vinyl or aluminum siding. Just shows a lack of taste.
Extravagant and unnecessary spending also shows a lack of taste. Ceterum de gustibus non est disputandum.

Vinyl, aluminum, clapboard, shakes, sandwich panels…. Houses depreciate rapidly no matter what it’s wrapped in.

And with 20 million excess empty houses with another 35 MILLION coming on the market as boomers head to the grave, it’s a long way to the bottom for housing. A very long way.

I would never buy a house with vinyl or aluminum siding. Just shows a lack of taste.

I’m imagining a harpsichord covered with it :-).

Well then, Joe, I am not good enough for you.

Don’t feel bad Oxide none of us are. Joe, my house is stucco so you should have a lot of fun with that. I also bought some bags of mulch for my backyard at HD since it is the store is near to my house. I just have Desert Willow trees and wild flowers and use red colored mulch to provide ground cover for the rest of the area. I think it looks nice and I use very little water, it adsorbs the monsoon rains without erosion and avoids blowing sand and soil during the wind storms. But I am sure you can find fault Joe, tell me how hillbilly I am.

Single occupant vehicle = rugged individualist.

Public transportation = communist/homosexual.

Goon, what do you call a luxurios cross country private plane ride just for you and your family?

An Obama spring break family vacation?

they should have to ride the Greyhound bus. and while theyre riding the bus, they should have to sit in the Back Of The Bus, cus they were all like born in Kenya and sh*t.

All Presidents must be rich enough to fly their own planes to their own ranches.

I avoid the Beltway whenever I can which means I use it to get to two of the area’s three airports (if I can’t arrange my flights at a time to make public transportation an option) and not much else. Now, East-West Highway. Military Road and Wisconsin are an entirely different story.

An Obama spring break family vacation?

I was thinking an environmentalist.

Yours not that good but you still get a C.

East-West Hwy seems like a mess, but I’ve only been on the stretch between NH Ave and Baltimore-Washington Turnpike (295).

Wisconsin seems to run right through the nice parts of Bethesda, I bet they’ll keep that paved up nicely.

I don’t drive any of them during rush hour. E-W Highway is a pretty convenient road, but it is very hilly and has a lot of turns. Avoid at all costs if it is snowing or sleeting (however, that goes double for the Beltway). Shouldn’t be a problem again until next January. Or a year from January. Or two years from January. Etc.

Wisconsin/355 has had some attention recently. And I think they are going to add a sidewalk to the west side of the street through the part of Chevy Chase just south of Bethesda. They should. There are bus stops over there and they don’t line up with the stop lights. Exactly how are you supposed to safely walk from the bus stop to the next place to cross the street without a sidewalk? Maybe the country club originally blocked it because they didn’t want to be responsible for shoveling it in case of a snow storm?

After hibernating indoors all winter, the “youfs” are just unleashing some pent-up demand to go get some Justice For Trayvon or some sh*t.

And after the racis cops shoot one of those kidz, expect the media to give a quote from some fambly member about how he was “an aspiring rapper” who was “turning his life around” et cetera.

A mile of high-end shops and hoity apartments located three blocks from a ghetto is just bad manners — if not sheer stoopidity.
Could never understand the allure of that town….

Cabrini Green is long gone, ahansen. Gentrification has pushed the ghetto more like three miles from the Mag Mile. The misunderstood youths take the “L” downtown after getting flashmob notifications on their iPhones.

Don’t know how long it has been since you last visited Chicago. To me, it’s a beautiful city with many cultural draws, and great recreation along the lakefront. Doesn’t mean I want to live in the city; but I am glad to have it nearby.

Cant wait for the Thug Trayon pictures to surface at trial…..i heard they were nasty…if so Zimmerman wont have much to worry about

—-
After hibernating indoors all winter, the “youfs” are just unleashing some pent-up demand to go get some Justice For Trayvon or some sh*t.

Mag Mile my butt. I’ll just get the stuff online.

Was last on a walking tour of the city in 2006 when I abruptly found myself in chain link and cracked asphalt territory mere minutes from leaving the Prada shop. But I imagine seven years is plenty of time to gentrify an outskirt?

Visited briefly again in 2010 and the shore was teeming with people who did not look as though they’d just strolled over from RL Restaurant. The income disparities were striking, especially for someone coming from Outer Los Angeles where everything is less condensed and money is more dispersed.

including non-parenting.

Cue Dione Warwick that’s what Jaaaaillllzzzzz are for.

90% of people are willing to believe the most illogical stuff if only told by a voice of authority. We are herd animals and thinking is too hard.

H2O is a much worse actor than CO2. More difficult to float a tax on that though.

Right. Because particulate matter from burning coal mixed with CO and CO2 is historically so conducive to human life.

Ten years ago when the “maybe-atmospheric-pollution-is-really-PROTECTING-the-planet” meme was first floated as a smart-ass response to science deniers in the US Congress, it was meant to be tongue-in-cheek. Why am I not surprised to see IPCC’s Rajendra Pachauri’s recent comments being misquoted by the Drudge brigade today?

While global surface temperatures may be in hiatus - for many reasons including those posited by Hansen’s paper — the rate of HEAT ACCUMULATION on earth has not slowed at all.
Graham Lloyd, (whose article being referenced here “The Australian” was forced to retract), is an oft-discredited hack for the American coal and oil lobby.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/australian-pachauri-global-warming.html

Right. Because particulate matter from burning coal mixed with CO and CO2 is historically so conducive to human life.

Coal mixed with co and co2? I do not even know what that means and neither do you. Coal is primarily carbon and when it burns it adds either o or o2 depending on how rich the air is in oxygen. Carbon in the air is very useful to plants, it is the other elements in coal that are the problem but they can be removed or reduced dramatically.

You can state that world is getting warmer over and over but it does not make it fact. Even according to James Hansen’s manipulated data the average of the first two months of this year is cooler than the average of temperature for 1998. 1998 .61C warmer than a base period, I think 1951-80 (off the top of my head) compared to .55C this year compared to the same base. We have been flat to down for almost two decades despite an increasing amount of co2 in the air. Completely contrary to predictions, which has just about everyone but you admitting that AGW was overestimated in the 1980s.

Here, I’ll make it real simple for you.

Burning coal produces carbon dioxide.When there is insufficient combustion, carbon monoxide is produced.(When carbon dioxide gas is passed over heated charcoal it forms carbon monoxide.) CO2 (g) + C (s) > 2CO (g). Which kills people, especially when it combines with low-lying fogs.

While global surface temperatures may be in temporary hiatus, the rate of HEAT ACCUMULATION on earth has not slowed at all. Approximately 90% of global warming goes into heating the oceans.

The first part is just saying what I said in a different manner and you should cite your source since I can tell it is a quote that you really do not understand since it is not what occurs in a coal power plant. In fact, it is two different quotes patched together.
As far as 90% of the warming going into the oceans that is more theory than fact. We do not know how enough data to know how warm the water was deep so we don’t know whether ocean warming that has occurred is due to uplift in the ocean or a warmer atmosphere. All we do know is the combined ocean and air measurements that we do have and have been taking since 1979 show no change in about twenty years and in fact we have a slight cooling trend in place. That may change radically over the next years if the predictions about a lack of sunspots is correct. You know when the predictions by the AGW crowd have some accuracy I might start taking them more seriously. 20 years ago we were told that children in Great Britain would never see snow by now and now they are buried by it.

Why are the ice caps melting then?

You’re right, dan, I don’t have a clue what goes on inside your head, but it’s certainly not science.

If and when it is to China’s advantage to do so
I wouldn’t be all that surprised if an NKor nuke detonated somewhere in China before one went off anywhere else.

And I think this is why North Korea gets a lot less direct attention from the US. We are relying on China to keep them under control and China has let our government know that unilateral action against North Korea is a bad idea.

If NK launches an attack, the dynamic may change in that part of the world.

‘We do not take the threats by North Korea to attack the US with nukes seriously since they do not have the capacity to hit anywhere but Alaska and we have defensive missiles to stop that’

So we don’t have bases in that part of the world? You are purposefully dancing around the essential contradiction here. Never mind.

‘Iran is different they have the capacity to cut-off oil supplies’

Then we should try to get along with them, huh?

‘A nuclear capacity would allow Iran to engage in a more aggressive policy in the region’

Aggressive like invading Iraq? Oh, that was the US! Isn’t it a crime to invade a country who poses no threat and hasn’t done anything?

How about assassinating scientists; not in Pakistan, but on the streets of Iran. What’s the word for that? Terrorism.

‘Add to that the ability to attack Israel’

Like Israel doesn’t go around killing, bombing, assassinating people, shooting up ships/cars all the time. I can’t imagine why anyone would want to attack Israel!

Don’t look now, but the boys are coming home from yet another failed military adventure. I understand there are 2 US military suicides a day. Citizens here are stocking up on guns and ammo, and not to fight Muslims, BTW. If you look hard, you might see the Empires high-water mark fading in the distance.

No flattery intended but you are one badassed mofo when it comes to wielding truth. You just shutdown the conversation using it.

Ben, I have been against any nation building efforts in the Middle East. The bodies are coming home because in both Iraq and Afghanistan we tried to go beyond punishing people for bad behavior to trying to create a democracy in an area which is not fertile to democracy. Both wars would have been cheap in blood and money had we restricted our aims. In Afghanistan, we should have just insisted that the terrorists have no base and in Iraq the removal of Saddam for his actions against us which included an attempt on a US presidents life when visiting Kuwait. Flipping Iraq from a Sunni dominated to a Shiite dominated country just helped Iran.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/iraq/timeline/062793.htm

Remember, “we” invaded Iraq not because Saddam was selling oil too high, but because he was selling it too low.

Link?

It has little to do with nukes and everything to do with Iran’s oil bourse no longer being denominated in USD. (As of 3/20/12, which coincidentally was just about when the war drums began to beat.)

Now, I do agree that THIS played a role, Iraq also tried to price its oil outside the USD. Banksters will fight to protect fiat money and US banksters will fight to keep the USD as the reserve currency. Manipulate the metals markets, war, whatever it takes not to lose the ability to control the money supply and thus the stock market etc. This knowledge of when money is easy or tight or to make it loose or tight allows them to accumulate more wealth.

Most recent links:

http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/03/22/the-usa-attacked-iraq-because-saddam-had-wd/

http://www.gregpalast.com/how-george-bush-won-the-war-in-iraq-really/#more-7963

There’s quite the brain drain out of Israel. And, you won’t believe this, but guess where those brains are going.

If you guessed the United States, you’re right. They’re coming here. Because of our political stability. And for the fact that we’re surrounded by friendlier neighbors.

Is Israel the US’ friend?

USS Liberty

It was a shameful example of putting domestic politics above US interests. The Israeli lobby which primarily supported democrats but had significant Republican support pressured the US to cover up the murder of US servicemen during the 67 war by Israel’s air force. President Johnson should have been ashamed of himself.
But as the Arab countries have moved from a Pan-Arabist modernizing ideology to a 7th century ideology that requires the conquering of the world for Islam by military means if necessary, we actually share more in common with Israel and making them make concessions will not make the world safer. Even Israel knows they should have made peace before the rise of radical Islam but now it is too late and the irony is they helped it by funding Hamas to undermine the PLO and split Arab Christians from Arab Moslems.

By living well (this could mean doing charity, etc…) Good memories should be a part of every portfolio. Since one’s time is finite.

Comment

Excellent post.

Good memories are defintely worth the visit.

Also, your children will remember you for what you did with them, not what you bought them.

Egypt.

Yeah, like you’ll hear about stocks rising on “thin volume”. Right now homeowner formation is dropping by many thousands a quarter, but we’re told houses are in short supply. This is a PT Barnum market.

Where do you see homeowner formation dropping?

The last three reported quarters by the Census (Table 8 on their Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Historical Tables) show increasing numbers of homeowners. And total households (homeowner PLUS renter households) is up by about 1MM year on year.

Total vacant housing units represent 13.48% of the total in Q4 2012, down from 13.88% Q4 of 2011.

Do you mean the homeownership rate is falling? That is still correct, as there are proportionately more new renter households than buyer households each quarter.

And to be clear, I’m not saying everything is hunky dory…there are clearly parts of the country that have not yet begun to clear their distress, but things are generally heading in the right direction (albeit slowly).

And I don’t define “right direction” as rising home prices. I define “right direction” as moving back to “normalcy” in terms of distress, vacancy, household formation, and stable levels of housing development (appropriate to the growth of the US population).

And the most recent Census shows another decade of slowing population growth to the lowest levels in US history.

Vacant housing? With 25 MILLION excess empty houses and growing by the day, It’s going to be a long time to get back to typical vacancy rates. Worse yet, an additional 35 MILLION houses have just begun to vacate as boomers head to the grave.

So how does all this excess housing inventory and land jive now that you’ve disclosed that you have a stake in the direction of prices?