Code Red As Phoenix Market ‘Continues To Deteriorate’
The Arizona Republic has a couple of notes on the Phoenix housing bubble. “Home buyers are waffling as much over Sen. John McCain’s house as he is over running for president. The north-central Phoenix home has been on the market for seven months. So far, no takers.”
“The price on the 11,000-square-foot mansion was cut by a half-million dollars to $3.75 million earlier this year.”
“The high-end housing market isn’t slowing as much as the rest of the Valley’s home market so far. More than 800 houses across metropolitan Phoenix have sold for $1 million or more so far this year.”
“During 2005, about 1,800 sales of houses worth at least $1 million last year sold, according to the Arizona Regional MLS. In all of 2004, there were nearly 1,000 million-dollar home sales Valley-wide.”
“Real estate analyst RL Brown has gone code red on the Valley’s housing market. In his May newsletter released last week, Brown changed the background on his forecast from yellow to red. Yellow stood for caution.”
“Brown has done the color codes signaling his take on the market for the past few years. He has never gone red before.”
“Brown said the red signals the housing ‘market continues to deteriorate. Hopefully that condition and color will be short-lived.’”
Brown is probably the most quoted expert on the Phoenix market. Next to Jay Butler, who compiles the states sales numbers at ASU, he is the most listened to person in Arizona on real estate. Pretty much a perma-bull.
‘Brown changed the background on his forecast from yellow to red. Yellow stood for caution.’
What does red stand for, run for the hills?
The colors of RE analysis should be “black” and “red”. However under traditional RE investment (buy, rent and build equity over time…how quaint!) the color is red for 98% of investors now. But “it’s different this time”
As a side note, if you gave every man, woman and child in the United States a quarter acre to live on, meaning a family of four lived on an acre of land, you would fill less than half of Texas.
If you add back in vertical living (condos, Manhattan, etc) it’s much less. Scarcity of land? Not in this country.
Sad, but we’ve covered up most of the prime farm land with parking for Wal-Mart and sprawled out subdivisions. The only thing left is scrub land considered uninhabitable by the last generation.
“Prime farm land.” One of the most overhyped compalints compounded by blaming Walmart one of the most demonized companies only to pile on with an anti-boomer whine. Get over it.
Marc Reisner author of Cadillac Desert pretty much recanted and preferred water intensive agriculture over more subdivisions in the San Joaquin Valley.
We may rue the day we made the most productive ag land in the US more cookie cutter subdivisions.
Only time will tell.
I don’t doubt the antiboomer whine is short term (only 20-30 years). I also believe we have plenty of farmland at a national scale, however, it is likely to become limiting in parts of the country in future, so some sensible conservation seems like a good idea.
I am really surprised by Marc Reisner’s recant. The southwestern San Joauquin Valley is really only good for one thing that I can think of, wetlands. The porkbarrel swindle of the 1960s to water that stole norcal water to irrigate that part of the valley only benefited huge industrial farms, who employ illegal aliens under sickening conditions. The soils are choked with salts that have accumulated under flood irrigation in the desert climate there. And it is not habitable. Name me one decent, habitable town south of Hanford and west of hwy 99. It is a squalid place that should have been left as salt scrub for the kit fox, tule elk, and millions of migratory birds. Would have been something Californians to take pride in, not the pit it is now.
Reisner was an example of irrational suburb hatred. I’m not surprised that before doing his own presonal bit about overcrowding in California he expressed an anything except more exurbia stance.
Robert:
Citation please.
My parents live on a farm in an area that truely is prime farm land. There is a vast amount of it remaining and in active use. Have no fear, the Farmers are still taking care of business. That’s not to say that some of the land is growing houses, which sadly they are. The overwhelming majority is still being farmed.
Texas includes 267,339 square miles, or 7.4% of the nation’s total area.
43,60 sq feet in an acre
640 acres in a sq. mile
171,000,000 acres in Texas
684,000,000 ¼ acres In Texas
Probably a typo: There are 43,560 square feet in an acre.
of which,
interesting, if you type a ‘less than’ sign, it cuts off your post after that……
I see quite a few stuck AZ flippers trying to sell houses in places like Giblert on the Dallas Craiglist. LOL. Good luck with that. People in Dallas don’t have two nickels to rub together.
Agreed! People trying to sell AZ real estate in Dallas, how funny! Hell, you can’t sell Dallas real estate in Dallas!! Those people are BROKE! I even saw someone from Dallas trying to sell a 2005 BMW X5 on the Los Angeles Craigslist. Heck, those people can’t even afford to buy a $30k vehicle in Dallas how in the world are they going to buy a piece of overpriced AZ real estate? Funny!! Must be really despirate!
Maybe it is just the people I know in Dallas, but they all drive $100k+ Mercedes and are to me “typical” Big D.
“Charming”, very blond, lots of perfect makeup, Neiman Marcus, plastic surgery, veneers on teeth, v. good jobs, etc. North Dallas… maybe the rest of Dallas is the exact opposite.
Took a spin around lower Greenville Ave this afternoon to take a look at where some guy was shot dead yesterday and four people were stabbed, and I noticed that there is a boat-load of McMansions going up. They are building like there’s no tomorrow off of lower Greenville. Added to that madness is the sheer number of other homes for sale (10-20 on almost every block) and you have the makings for some real pain in Dallas. The homes keep going up, the condos keep getting built, and there is no let up in sight. I don’t know who’s going to buy all this stuff - ’cause the economy doesn’t seem all that swift at the moment and all signs point to a downturn.
What does red stand for, run for the hills?
Naah, Flagstaff is nearly as bad, isn’t it?
He’s right you know. If prices fall 80% this year. Next year will be yellow.
For your sake Ben,
I hope they don’t. The high country of AZ is still pretty nice.
It is a nice area. But I bet the per capita percentage of ex-Californians is higher in the north than in Phoenix.
Yep, but you have to distinguish from native Californians vs. people who polluted CA by moving in and are now leaving.
Yea,
Californians are the great Satans of this RE Boom, but their state has been absorbing the wackos and dregs of society for decades. Thank you for that.
However, I must say it is hard to not be irritated and resentful of people moving into town,hell taking over the town, or staying home and flipping homes remotely,and sending prices to levels that only the equity rich can afford. It is beyond irritating to be usurped from our own towns by wave after wave of clueless latte sippers.
I guess in the spirit of COMPASSION I ought to remember that more Californians have been hosed by this boom than anyone (I used the C word, flamage is imminent!). May the coming implosion help the have nots everywhere!
No flames from me, Californians get painted with a broad brush.
Most people from Cailfornia really aren’t, I posit those people are the problem running away from the problems they create, only to recreate them wherever they go.
The only constant is themselves.
you know the old saying:
L.A.: the newlywed, the almost dead and the crazy in the head….
come to think of it, if you add ‘illegal heaven’, that about sums it up - except it does not rhyme
Miserable Californians I am sure, since the weather is awful there (subzero and black ice for months!), windy, lightning all summer, rattlesnakes, too damn far from the beach, and nowhere to buy Peet’s coffee! Take your equity elsewhere emigres! And don’t even think about Oregon, nothing there either except rain, bracket fungus, and poison oak. Go buy a county in Arkansas!
Provided as a Public Service Announcement.
Ben
RL Brown is a complete idiot. I E-mailed him after one of his “quotes” in the AZ Republic and he e-mailed back with a nasty reply and a link to Watts publication. I think at the time - six months ago, he was still predicting a single digit increase in RE.
If you’re into a bigger picture look at this fiasco check out this article…
Good article Kirk, everyone talks about China but Japan still holds massive amounts of US debt and is no longer concerned about deflation. Also it is in a major publication, which is important for public opinion.
Article is by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Google his name and have some fun.
This reminds me of the classic one line explanation of “Economics” from economist Milton Freedman: “There is no free lunch.”
With cheap money and easy credit, the future can be postponed for awhile and then somebody has to start paying on the debt or let the debt go into default.
We are now about to see the default option occur.
That would be the immortal Robert Anson Heinlein whom the Sainted Milton merely paraphrased. Grok?
TANSTAAFL.
This article has me worried about safe investments. Is this saying that people should now get out of precious metals and stocks? I’m mainly curious if this is suggesting to sell. Will we see the markets nose dive again on Tuesday?
Everyone has an opinion. Base metals have been driven by hedge funds using the carry trade to fund purchases. BOJ is killing the carry trade, so commodities dropped. Fundamentals remain strong, except copper is probably too high. I still like steel, aluminum, and of course gold. Stay away from silver and copper, and the dollar. That’s my two cents.
Diceman…what newsletters or blogs do you read? I agree with your statements about gold. Thanks.
Gold (or other commodities) are insurance against inflation unless you have some other insider information.
If your insurance (gold) pays out (goes up), it’s because you’ve taken a hit elsewhere in your cash and value of your curent earnings. If your insurance doesn’t “pay off”, your cash and current earnings will be worth more.
I just read a quote so succint/substantive … it’s worth sharing.
“The U.S. Government is trying to fund the federal budget deficit without destroying the dollar and trying to raise interest rates to save the dollar with destroying the economy. I don’t think they can do it.”
- James Turk, Goldmoney.com
The current issue of Barrons has an interview of James Turk. He is a smart guy that thinks gold should be at 8000/ounce. Everyone has an opinion.
did you say 8000, not 800??? Wow….
red = run for the hills, the cattle are dying
nope, not the cattle.
It’s pigs being led to slaughter!
Florida could send some of the Latin America and Europe buyers to save the housing market there also,
How about the Easter Bunny?
Why would Latin American and Europe buyers save the Easter Bunny?
“Hopefully that condition and color will be short-lived.”
What a complete idiot. Just magically, somehow, someway, buyers are going to come in and buy 30,000 properties just like that? This behavior reminds me so much of the Dot Com burst and IT jobs shedding that went on. “things should get better in a couple months or I hear summer will pick up”, blah blah blah. Whatever….
I also remember Brown being a keynote speaker at some large PHX HB conference at the beginning of this year that was talked about in the local media and posted here as well. Brown was so bullish about this year that he thought what happened in 2005 was going to happen this year as well - something along the lines of 65k homes being built.
I wonder how RL Brown would like his crow?
“Hopefully that condition and color will be short-lived.”
What a complete idiot.
Unfortunately not. Many, like Skipintro’s 20 something relatives or even the certifiably insane woman with 14 properties and $50k in monthly payments, are simply greedy fools. Brown knows better, he is a criminal right along with Kenny Boy and Shill.. ing. You can bet he is moving his money to safe places at the same time he is encouraging others to become greater fools. And once people have been destroyed, he will come back like the maggot he is to dine on the corpses.
Many people at this blog will dine too, but at least we warned them in advance.
Mr. Fester -
Did you mean Robert Shilling - the Yale Economist? He is a criminal? From what I have know about him, he’s been ringing the warning bell for sometime now. I would like to hear your reasons why.
I think he meant (Jeff) Skilling former CEO of Enron.
gotcha! Thanks!
I did mean Skilling, with a poor double-tendre (i.e., shill…).
I hear a lot about how it is the same as the dot.com issue. I don’t have statistics, but I’d be hard pressed to believe that there were many folks taking out loans to buy $500,000 dollars worth of some dot.com stock. I live in Tucson, and people haven’t thought twice about spending HALF A MILLION dollars on a home with the thought that it is a “sure thing”. It is one thing to lose your savings. It is another to lose borrowed money that has to be paid back.
As for the gov’t bailing out anybody…I don’t think so. Any talk of creating the amount of money necessary to bail this thing out is going to create a substantial decrease (even more than the current depreciation) of the dollar. Yes, the Fed and Treasury have got to be losing sleep. At this point, no good solution that will keep the current folks in their jobs. No one wants to hear what it will take. Just keep the good times rolling. Roger that. Thank you sir, may I have another?
It’s more like the 1929 stock market crash, when people bought stocks on 90% margin. We all know what happened in the next 4 years, right?
The avg poster on this blog is 100% smarter than the avg Joe. What scares me is the amount of stupid sheople and the volume of idiocy. I, too, am concerned about the overall economy.
We all know that WE are right about what is going on, but we ALL sink (in some way) if we go into a Depression. Maybe we will not lose our homes, but all the associated issues when there are a depression are horrible… unscathed? Not most of us.
Lose sleep over this people! I hear a sucking sound.
And NO, we should NOT bail them out. Free will means to have the ability to suceed or fail. We cannot continue to bail out failure.
MARGIN
http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/margin.htm
Gekko,
Thanks for the link. If co-workers, neighbors, and friends were doing that in 2000, I was not aware of their levels of potential risk to their long term financial security. However, I can assure you that my co-workers and neighbors (all making modest incomes to say the least) are up to their eyeballs in debt for homes. As it begins to unravel, it will be the ultimate self-licking ice-cream cone. Market flooded with homes, banks not getting payment on their loans, downsizing, loss of jobs, gov’t creating money to prevent recession, dollar falling because of creating money, etc. Thank you sir, may I have another?
Kerk, interesting stuff going on in our town, eh? My neighbor’s house has been for sale for nine months. It’s just a 1500 sq ft. tract home in CR and they’ve dropped the price 10% so far. It’s sad but they went ahead last year and bought land in Pinal County and then moved out there in a trailor. They figured they’d sell their home in a month and they actually did…to a realtor who wanted it for her son. Anyway, the poor folks were literally at a restaurant right after signing the docs when the title company called and told them the buyer backed out. That was eight months and more than 100 showings ago. They haven’t had a single offer since and now even the showings are dropping off. Now they are both working overtime to pay two mortgages and the worst part is that the land mortgage is only a one year deal with a balloon payment. They just refinanced it once and went with another one year I/O with a balloon in twelve months. Anyone shudder at the impending implosion these people face if either the house or their property doesn’t sell?
This is going to be a mess. We’re happy here in Tucson and we’re especially happy with our
FRCP,
I can think of a lot of adjectives, and I suppose interesting is just as good as any other. I knew I was moving in July, and sold my place last Dec. I owned it (not the bank), and figured I would be better off renting from the person who bought it (from California, so take your own guess as to his intentions) than living rent free and trying to sell in July. I was afraid that not only would I not be able to sell, but wouldn’t be able to rent either. As I drive around town, I don’t think I was far off. There are so many folks trying to rent and sell, it is unbelievable. I originally had it listed for 219. After three weeks and no looks, I put it 5K below any other comparable homes (199K). Sold in one day. Good luck to the folks that cut 5K off a 500K home. They’re going to need it and then some. The amount of homes still being built is astounding here in Tucson. I don’t know about other places in the country, but if there are places worse than Tucson, this will be of epic proportions.
Debt never sleeps…….
I find it interesting that on the main page of RL Brown’s website, he has the following statement “After a booming 2005 housing year in metro Phoenix the area will see a period of transition in at least the early part of 2006, but we don’t see that transition as a “bubble bursting” in any sense at all.” (www.rlbrownreports.com). So, does he have a color worse than red?
Companies that have filed for dissolution or reorganization in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Orange County recently. Chapter 7 is liquidation, Chapter 11 and Chapter 13 are reorganization.
HID Properties Inc.
Petition signed by: Lyle Pearson
Location: Laguna Niguel
Filing: Chapter 7
Date: May 22
Assets: $0-$50,000
Liabilities: $1 million-$10 million
Case number :06-10736JR
Cook Builders Inc.
Petition signed by: Jonathan R. Ellowitz
Location: Garden Grove
Filing: Chapter 7
Date: May 24
Assets: $0-$50,000
Liabilities: $50,001-$100,000
Case number: 06-10752TA
Stonetek Consultants Corp.
Petition signed by: Mark A. Zevotek
Location: Anaheim
Filing: Chapter 7
Date: May 9
Assets: $100,001-$500,000
Liabilities: $1 million-$10 million
Case number: 06-10661ES
Stonetek Consultants Corp. specializes in fabrication tools and supplies that involve stonework in residential and commercial contracting services. From refinishing, polishing and cutting to cladding and maintenance, our tools and supplies will help you get the job done. We are privately owned and operated in Anaheim, California, and have been in operation since 1996. With our great prices and quality products, we know you’ll be satisfied with our services.
Add a few more of these to the soon to be subprime implosion in the OC and we should be CODE RED in the OC! Ask the guys from UCLA what they think of the OC (per their video floating around the Net).
Had some family from OC over this weekend and my uncle is in the construction biz and he mentioned it has slowed down a lot. He reminded me of the early 90’s and how he had to get rid of ALL of his toys, boat, vette, etc… However, he was quick to point out - THIS TIME WILL BE DIFFERENT - things are only going to slow down and then next year they will pick right back up. I said - Yeah its different there- Some people NEVER LEARN!
No, OC is Code Blue. The patient has had a massive heart attack, the blood is not flowing the brain is damaged. This month OC literally gave back a third of all the monthly economic gains it has made in the last 4 years. THe money has stopped pumping and the brain is so damaged the patient doesn’t understand what has happened.
This month OC literally gave back a third of all the monthly economic gains it has made in the last 4 years
______________________________________________
Did I miss this? Details Robert?
The majority of recent jobs gains have ben in construction, real estate and related goods and services. When sales and resales crater these segments do not get paid. Instantaneous economic feedback.
Yes! The 35-40% drop in homes in OC will start to HURT very soon!!
I was thinking the same thing. Someone call for a crash cart.
Interesting. Many people may know Anaheim as the home of Disneyland, but it is also the site of one of the largest concentrations of tile importers and merchants in the USA. If a lot of these businesses close, it would leave a gaping hole in west Anaheim.
Yep, I used to work at Katella and State College.
Literally, a mile square of light industrial property is dedicated to the tile and stone business there.
I forgot about that impact. There should be some good overstocks soon.
Perhaps OT,
But is anyone else disappointed to hear Maverick McCain has an 11,000 sf mansion? I thought he was the champion of the little guy (campaign finance reform,etc). I didn’t know (though am not surprised) he is so ostentatiously (whoa! a college prep word I actuall used!!) wealthy!! I will call him King John from here on out.
as someone from the other side of the pond I don’t know much about this issue … can anyone tell me what McCain paid for this mansion and when? That would put things a bit more into perspective
It’s the house his wife grew up in, she’s the daughter of a wealthy liquor distributor.
ha ha ha. you believe that crap about champion of the little guy? his votes are in the most right wing fringes, except when he needs to make some big political point.
It sure surprised me.
Most Senators are wealthy. I’m not sure I get your point. I’m fairly liberal, and I would vote McCain over Hillary any day. Maybe I’m not as liberal as I think?
McCain is toast for sticking with Bush at RNC 2004. Will be hard to wipe all the Afghanistan/Iraq crap off the collective face.
That’s when McCain lost me…not so much with the support for the war, but with the support for Bush to the point of being willing to speak at the RNC like that. ick.
he had a fine out, by claiming reasonable disgust for Bush’s appalling tactics in 2000 primaries. he should have taken it.
No, I get your drift. You hate dynasties. Me too. I don’t mind Hillary that much, but who wants the same folks in power year after year. I would gladly trade no more Clintons for no more Bushes. Besides Hillary is a Senator, a pretty good gig in itself.
I agree with your points on political dynasties; but senators (legislators) may have a tough transition to make to the executive branch. Presidential candidates who have been governors have had greater success getting elected to the White House because they have proven that they can make difficult decisions and act quickly (albeit on a smaller scale). By contrast, Senators work on committees and try to build consensus around new legislation/spending bills. That’s a different skill set than is required to be the President, and probably why a US Senator has not been elected to the White House in a long time (though a number have tried).
Another reason that legislators have trouble getting elected is that they have extensive voting records that can be used against them. A legislator might have voted a few hundred times during a session. A govenor may have had 1/2 dozen bills needing signature or veto.
Just for the record, McCain’s wife comes from money.
On the other hand, IMHO McCain is and always will be a strong conservative. The surgically attached lips (mentioned below) are actually removable. They have to be for ALL THE OTHER BUTTS he is now kissing. He has become very calculating in his moves and now appears cynical and soul-less.
McCain is NOT CONSERVATIVE… WAKE UP AND LOOK AT HIS VOTING RECORD. how the heck to you think he is conservative.. he votes with Ted F’n Kennedy more than half the time. Hillary could not run a Denny’s in LittleRock…that is all she is really capable of. Give me a man of the people. give me an independent. give me an American first, one who thinks like Jefferson or Washington. get rid of these loser frauds. If y’all would stop reading/watching that joke mainstream media, you would know how pinko these losers are.
McCainiac is a POS. he is NOT conservative. he is Republican in Name Only… RINO. he made his money the old fashioned way… he married a rich bitch…. just like Kerry his comrad. They are champions of themselves. certainly not the little guy. complete frauds.
Phuck -
Having a nice day?
Heh, I think McCain is basically a phony POS as well, but in my book he is a conservative who strays when the urge or pragmatics moves him.
what are you talking about kerry got rich because he married a rich bitch? please check your info. he has the money even before getting married to heinz. he inherited several large trusts from the forbes family of china and boston. i don’t think he can claim any of the heinz wealth, in any case. and no, i am no fan of kerry. just to correct your info.
You may be correct about John Kerry’s “extended” family on his mother’s side (the Forbes of China side) having money, but not John’s immediate family. John’s dad did the same thing he ultimately did,…married into money. Even with John’s dad marrying into his wife’s family who was wealthy didn’t mean big bucks for John’s family as he grew up in an upper-middle class lifestyle. An aunt paid for John Kerry’s tuition and expenses to the elite private schools he went to. John DID marry into money by marrying Heinz (geez…why else would he have done it?), as little of the money from his mother’s side of the family trickled down to him personally (Mom had 10 siblings). By the way, Johns gradfather on his mother’s side (the China Forbes) initially made his fortune in opium. No wonder he considers himself Kennedy-esk, as that type of family back-ground is right up there with Joe Kennedy boot-legging his way to riches.
have you heard of the concept of prenuptial agreement to protect *your* money?
I used to love McCain, until I actually started paying attention to his voting record. Combine that with the transplant his lips have had to George Bush’s ass, and I’ll never vote for that man again.
It’s a damn shame what Washington Politics and Power seem to do to good people. In my mind, anyone who actually wants to run for office should be immediately disqualified for the job.
In 2001 I wrote a letter to McCain’s office encouraging him to vote for GWB’s tax cuts. In response, his office sent me a note against any tax cuts, calling it tax cuts for the rich. Then they provided information from the left wing think tank Brookings Institute. That’s the first time I realized McCain is no Republican. Then this Immigration bill where he craps all over the U.S. Citizens is a topper. I certainly am disgusted with McCain, hadn’t liked him at all since 2001.
as i mentioned before, he will vote differently to score some big political points. he knows his vote will not change the outcome anyway. smart move, i would say.
I think McCain once had considerable integrity, but as most politicians do, he has become just another prostitute whoring for votes. For most, power corrupts.
Integrity? Doesn’t anybody remember the Keating 5?
In 1989, the Lincoln Savings and Loan Association of Irvine, Calif., collapsed. Lincoln’s chairman, Charles H. Keating Jr., was faulted for the thrift’s failure. Keating, however, told the House Banking Committee that the FHLBB and its former chief Edwin J. Gray were pursuing a vendetta against him. Gray testified that several U.S. senators had approached him and requested that he ease off on the Lincoln investigation. It came out that these senators had been beneficiaries of $1.3 million (collective total) in campaign contributions from Keating.
This allegation set off a series of investigations by the California government, the United States Department of Justice, and the Senate Ethics Committee. The ethics committee’s investigation focused on five senators: Alan MacG. Cranston (D-Calif.); Dennis W. DeConcini (D-Ariz.); John H. Glenn Jr. (D-Ohio); John S. McCain III (R-Ariz.); and Donald W. Riegle Jr. (D-Mich), who became known as the Keating Five.
McCain is as big an insider as Bush or all the other ruling class elites. There is no democracy in America. In America we are governed by the golden rule; “He who has the gold makes the rules.” Why do you think barely half of America votes in the largest turn outs? It’s not because people don’t care. It’s just that most people know that it doesn’t really matter.
Good points. I agree that the U.S. political system is corrupt and dangerously dysfunctional. The important issues just aren’t being adequately addressed (e.g., Social Security/Medicare funding ; no form of national health insurance; wasteful and tragic foreign military involvements; out-of-control federal budget; runaway illegal immigration; widespread political corruption; growing income inequality; etc.).
We may be approaching (in, say, 15-20 years) a period of significant social conflict and perhaps even political instability, if important issues are not resolved.
Things are lot worse with the good old U. S. of A. than most people think, imho. We desperately need good leaders.
me thinks the US, just like most of Europe, is a kleptocracy. Central banking , the housing bubble and the utterly corrupt media are their most important instruments.
“McCain is as big an insider as Bush or all the other ruling class elites. There is no democracy in America. In America we are governed by the golden rule; “He who has the gold makes the rules.”
Bingo…that concisely sums up U.S. politics. Now back to RE.
YOU ARE CORRECT DEFLATION GUY. We must realize, that just like the mainstream media won’t cover the coming housing related DEPRESSION…they don’t cover politics truthfully either. Look at the Senate vote on the amnesty bill, which they labeled…’comprehensive’ immigration bill. the only thing it did was comprehensively shit on US citizens. Look at the votors… it was all but 4 dems, and all but 32 reps
I think there is hope in that the internet is creating a “shadow” media. Forums like this and independent news sources are sprouting up. My hope is that more parties will compete for Congressional seats. Maybe we will get a Libertarian or Green Senator. The mainstream media tends to marginalize any of the competitors by labeling them as “fringe” or “radical”. In essence they are only trying to brain wash the electorate so they and their global corporate agenda can continue to control the political process.
The biggest lie of all is the FEC. This is the agency that is suppose to police the election process. Of course the commission’s board is only made up of democrats and republicans. IMO it needs to be non-partison if you want any reform at all. But I rant.
as long as they (the rich, those who has the gold) have the media and the voiting machine, you may continue to dream on.
“The high-end housing market isn’t slowing as much as the rest of the Valley’s home market so far.”
>The exact same can be said about the Sacramento Valley. Biggest price decreases are at the lower end. I think it’s because the people who are buying higher end houses are flush with money having sold at least thier previous house, maybe more, for huge profits. Lower end buyers simply do not have that kind of cash.
I’m sure in the end those higher priced homes will suffer the same % loss as the others, and as percentages go those sellers will suffer a greater $$ loss.
This is exactly what is going on in Seattle. The high end sales continue to prop up the YOY median price increases and end up masking the impending crash. The bulls of course cling to the YOY numbers as “proof” of “no bubble here”.
One can obfuscate only so long before clarity is forcefully restored by brutal reality.
OT, for those of you guys who traveled on this Memorial Day - did any one of you noticed the impact, if any, of high gas prices? I am curious, but didn’t venture far from home this year. AAA predicted busy driving season.
I was at REI stocking up on gear for the Mem Day. He said we’re busy, lots of people doing the outdoors to save money and gas.
REI’s business runs counter to the economy.
REI’s sales go up in a recession, due to people not taking luxury vacations and roughing it.
“OT, for those of you guys who traveled on this Memorial Day - did any one of you noticed the impact, if any, of high gas prices? I am curious, but didn’t venture far from home this year. AAA predicted busy driving season.”
I got stuck in Memorial Day northbound traffic on Friday. It was extremely heavy with all da folks heading up nort’ with their boats and campers.
The local paper said people are still taking trips, but they’re going to places that aren’t as far of a drive. And owners of the big cabin cruisers who were interviewed said they didn’t spend hundreds of thousands of bucks for the boat only to quibble over $3/gallon fuel for it.
I think the only people really hurt by gas prices are the folks at the bottom who can’t afford vacation trips or gas-guzzling toys.
I just got back from a ride at the Huntington Beach Pier area.
It was packed.
The most packed I have ever seen it with the exception of the Labor Day surf contest.
More crowded than July 4th.
I also saw a brand new toy hauler parked on Main Street for sale.
I haven’t seen that in a while.
AAA was predicting a record driving holiday. I didn’t hear anything about flying. I wonder if there are a record number of people driving because it’s cheaper than flying. Airfares have been increasing at a fairly good clip as fuel costs filter into the airline industry.
this was reported on national news friday night. you’re right, record travellers this weekend. typical american mentality…who cares if it costs 20-30% more to travel? i have a credit card!!
PS - McCain is POS for the snow job he did while chairing Senate Select Commitee on MIA/POW from Vietnam back in the early 90s. Total cover-up and this guy will burn in hell for that. Karma’s coming Senator..
I noticed hardly any cars in mall parking lots. This is the first time it has been so empty. I guess alot of people are traveling instead of shopping. Either that, or they don’t have any money to spend.
Slightly off topic (for the thread)
What are the 10 areas that would be most interesting to “bubble watch”, and why?
Thanks.
I won’t bother to name a top 10, but anywhere with very high investor percentages and lots of new condo’s will be ripe for an implosion.
People forget how fast condo projects die when the banks get cold feet and stop funding. Unfinished buildings sit for years until demolished or completed in a different economy. Sometimes there’s no money to even remove the construction crane (and nowhere to send it ,where construction is still happening.)
Reminds me of a propery in Alaska. I lived in Anchorage during the oil boom in the mid 70s. There was a 6 story office tower on the edge of town that lost funding at the end of the boom and was left standing as a skeleton of steel. I went back to visit twelve years later and saw that it had recently been completed. I’m sure the new developer picked it up at a big bargain.
The only area that matters is the one you are looking to buy in.
And where homeowners cashed out to buy spec homes in LV, PHX and other Californicator overriden locales.
I checked out Queen Creek AZ this weekend. Definitely “Bubble Central” … the Johnson Ranch area 10 miles south of Queen Creek is looking pretty ugly. About every 6 or 7th house is on the market. Little 1500 sq ft 3 bedroom/2 bath houses listed @ $230K. What really blew me away is the fact the builders still have HUGE areas under development. Literally hundred’s of new homes are in the pipeline. I saw plenty of evidence of LOT’s of flipper properties with no one living in them (flyer’s stuck in the doors, vegetation looking shaggy) and no for sale signs up in front yet.
The amount of new supply in terms of new houses under construction in the southeast Valley of the Sun is simply staggering. Literally square miles of new development propoerties still coming on line. I can’t believe the demand is still there for these properties which are 50 miles southeast of downtown Phoenix.
I believe the real plan is to turn Johnson Ranch into the next above ground nuclear weapons test site. The thought is to make it as realistic looking as possible, with few if any people (flippers don’t count). Brilliant idea if you ask me.
Azdan,
That’s great!
I still am amazed by the building around Tucson — none in town, all 20-40 miles outside like Marana, Saharita, and Benson along the freeways. In Tucson you still have the apartment conversions to condo’s, usually in the nice places in town. The “experienced” conversion companies are still making good money. When it ends, we could have a house or condo for every man, woman and child in Tucson and some leftovers for the dogs.
Flippers in Saharita can rent their properties out to the National Guard soldiers who will be augmenting the border patrol, or use them as short term rentals to the various volunteer border militia groups. I’ll be volunteering next summer….where do I sign up for a short term rental (it has to have a pool).