April 18, 2013

Bits Bucket for April 18, 2013

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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526 Comments »

Comment by joe flacco smith
2013-04-18 04:31:29

Oxide, we don’t say “slot” because it’s chic on the interests, a say it because the RAL app uses that particular orthography. I asked Him if it should be corrected in the beta release and He said no, He’s keeping it for emphasis. It’s just something we need to trust Him on, kind of like Moses and the parting of the waters or the Pope and pedophile protests.

Inch by inch - a good and easy easy to kill grass is to cover it with a tarp, weigh the edges down, and it will be dead in 10 days, give or take. If you salt, stay several feet from the root line of anything you want to keep. That’s not the trunk/plant itself, but where the roots could be. Salt isn’t easy to get out of soil and can easily kill things like Japanese maple, many kinds of holly, etc.

Comment by joe flacco smith
2013-04-18 04:33:06

I meant “alot”. My phone keeps correcting me. Sorry, RAL.

 
Comment by Al
2013-04-18 04:53:03

inchbyinch,

Have you considered the foundation that’s going under the patio? If you want the patio fairly level with the surrounding lawn, you should dig down at least 4 inches and fill it with compacted gravel in inch by inch layers. That will take care of your grass problem.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 05:09:02

Cmon…. let her spend 2x and watch the fools cast on topsoil.

 
Comment by perkonkrusts
2013-04-18 05:16:40

inchbyinch, in my own personal experience with my lawn, the best way to kill grass is to try really hard to keep it alive.

Comment by ahansen
2013-04-18 10:10:08

LOL, krusty.

RoundUp is the cheapest and most labor-effective way to kill grasses without leaching to the perimeter or screwing up your subsoil. (This coming from an organic farmer.)

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-04-18 11:30:48

I’m also an organic farmer (of the small-scale urban sort) who uses Roundup to kill buffelgrass dead. Bermuda grass too.

 
Comment by Rancher
2013-04-18 14:48:13

Best is 50/50 mix of Roundup and Crossbow;
it will work on blackberry bushes and Bermuda grass, spray early spring, late fall
for best results.

 
Comment by scdave
2013-04-18 19:42:52

Rancher is correct…..

 
 
Comment by HBB_Rocks
2013-04-18 11:32:04

I agree with this. My grass grows like crazy on my cement driveway and I have to mow it, but in the lawn over some plumbing repairs? Maybe next year.

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Comment by inchbyinch
2013-04-18 05:49:24

Thank you, Al.
perkonkrusts - I know the feeling.LOL
I have an eye for landscape design,
but keeping things alive is my downside.
I love working in the yard.

Comment by oxide
2013-04-18 06:45:56

And I suppose if you dig out the grass for the patio, you can save the turf and lay it on bare spots elsewhere in the yard.

I don’t like the salt idea, sorry.
I’ve also read that pouing boiling water on a plant kills roots without ruining the soil, but that’s only practical for single weeds.

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Comment by MacBeth
2013-04-18 06:50:51

Strong hint-

For those of you with fire ant problems, pour big pots of boiling water on the mound. Do at least twice.

Ants are gone.

And, much of the time, the grass survives.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 06:57:02

And by golly, don’t forget to oil the hinges with 3-in-1 oil!

 
Comment by cactus
2013-04-18 08:48:35

And I suppose if you dig out the grass for the patio,”

Thats what I did. they I put down down a yard of fill sand, then wet it , compact it, repeat. Mine was a brick patio on sand no concrete except at the boarders to hold it together. Alot of sand was already there I just had to re-level it. Most of the bricks were there also but were put in wrong of course. I used to landscape way long time ago. Morrison Ranch Agoura was were I did most of my work, they were flippers back then too.

If you want a Concrete patio the mason will compact the area and lay down rebar over sand.

I prefere pavers they drain water and won’t crack but are somewhat more work I suppose.

Google images Pavers for ideas.

 
Comment by ahansen
2013-04-18 12:23:47

Most folks just charge their boarders rent, ya know…. :-)

 
 
Comment by inchbyinch
2013-04-18 16:19:40

Just got home, and wanted to
thank everyone for the data points.

You guys and gals are “swonderful”.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 16:23:14

How about a data point.

What did you pay for your debt-dump?

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2013-04-18 18:05:46

pimp
Is being a antagonist your hobby? LOL

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 18:09:08

What are you afraid of Debt Monkey?

What did you pay for your debt-dump?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 04:55:41

What are your losses on your depreciating shack up to? $120k?

Comment by joe the IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 06:40:47

Are you talking to me?

I’m expecting to “lose” 100% over a roughly 50 yr period for myself, my wife, a (future) child, and a cat. :-P

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 07:08:30

Strange that you worry so much about other folks’ depreciation. OCD perhaps. My car depreciates every day, and I love having it every day. Go figure…

Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 07:10:51

Strange that you attempt to detract from the losses associated with paying massively inflated prices for depreciating houses.

Why is that?

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Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 18:05:16

Strange that you worry so much that others *should be* feeling upset, even when they are happy.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 18:32:02

Silly lying realtor. Still talking about feelings?

Let me redirect you. Why are you detracting from the losses associated with paying massively inflated prices for depreciating houses?

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:34:00

Strange that Pimpy has trouble getting that losses don’t matter in many cases to most people.

Darn… While I posted this note, my car done depreciated again… Woooooeeeee is meeee….

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 19:37:50

Cheer up JunkyMonkey…. You can always opt to dump it for whatever amount the market might fetch for you.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:59:44

Strange that Pimpy assumes anyone has anything to dump. Funny pimpy. Pimpy doesn’t seem to be helping explore the nuances of the housing market/bubble. Funny pimpy

 
 
Comment by Al
2013-04-18 07:53:12

OMG macboy, you bought a car! Renting is ALWAYS better. Next thing you’re going to claim you own your own depreciating clothes too.

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Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 07:56:53

Losses on depreciating clothes are recoverable. The losses associated with paying massively inflated amounts on depreciating assets are not.

Rent for half the monthly cost of buying. Besides, rental rates are falling.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-04-18 09:11:26

OMG macboy, you bought a car! Renting is ALWAYS better. Next thing you’re going to claim you own your own depreciating clothes too.

I’d like to rent a new crown to replace the one that just broke.

There I was, thinking that I owned the thing, then oops! Guess what popped out while I was flossing teeth last night.

 
Comment by Al
2013-04-18 09:26:57

“The losses associated with paying massively inflated amounts on depreciating assets are not.”

Go to a Gap store and tell me their merchandise is neither massively inflated nor destined to depreciate.

 
Comment by MiddleCoaster
2013-04-18 09:29:43

Pretty sure I have lost more money on buying new cars, clothes, furniture and sporting goods, having them depreciate/wear out, then having to buy MORE cars, clothes, etc etc, over the past 23 years than I have lost on my depreciating house.

 
Comment by sfhomowner
2013-04-18 09:35:28

Renting is ALWAYS better

Look! You can even rent butt ugly handbags: http://www.bagborroworsteal.com/

 
Comment by sfhomowner
2013-04-18 09:46:33

Losses on depreciating clothes are recoverable.

Yeah, in my house, when our clothes are fully depreciated, we put them under our pillows and the clothes fairies come in while we are sleeping and leave money so we can buy new clothes. 100% recoverable asset.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 09:48:52

“Pretty sure I have lost more money on buying new cars, clothes, furniture and sporting goods, having them depreciate/wear out, then having to buy MORE cars, clothes, etc etc, over the past 23 years than I have lost on my depreciating house.”

And we’re pretty sure all your posts are nothing more than BS.

 
Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 09:55:27

How does that depreciating shanty of yours fit under a pillow? Is it that small? How much did you pay per square foot?

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 13:40:43

I’d like to rent a new crown to replace the one that just broke.

There I was, thinking that I owned the thing, then oops! Guess what popped out while I was flossing teeth last night.

Oh, I thought you were talking about a tiara or something :-).

 
Comment by MiddleCoaster
2013-04-18 13:50:22

The royal “We” is used so often by our resident troll. Delusions, or multiple personality disorder?

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 14:37:13

Hey Liar,

What did you pay for your debt-dump?

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 18:06:23

Weird how Pimpy professes to know how everyone else must (or should) feel. He sounds so unhappy.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 18:28:49

Don’t take it personal my dear DebtMonkey. You’re underwater like millions of others.

Get over it and get on with your life.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:35:52

Weird how Pimpy worries for *others* about “underwater”. Sounds like he has an unhappy life.

Oops, dang, while I wrote this my liver depreciated…

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 19:39:35

Well….. like housing, it seems youre worth-less today.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 20:01:03

Funny how Pimpy has nothing of substance to offer. Being “worthless” to a Pimpy sounds like a pretty fine thing to be :)

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 20:03:11

Just discussing the losses on depreciating housing.

Just how large are your losses?

 
Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 20:43:11

But you’re happy in your worthless house!!!!

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 21:52:31

Funny How Bigsby assumes who has houses and what their value is… What a fun night.

 
 
Comment by sfhomowner
2013-04-18 09:37:31

Strange that you worry so much about other folks’ depreciation.

Even stranger (and creepier) to steal usernames from other blogs.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 09:45:56

Don’t like getting your scam exposed do you DebtMonkey?

What did you pay for your Debt-Shack?

 
Comment by mikeinbend
2013-04-18 12:12:29

Debtmonkey as you call her has no scam going
Yourself, opposite.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 12:36:09

Speaking of DebtMonkeys….. How are your losses growing?

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 18:07:35

Strange how people try to distract from their losing arguments by professing to obsess about other folks’ internet handles. Funny really :)

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 18:25:41

Answer the question…

What did you pay for your debt shack?

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 18:37:55

More tears of joy? ;)

Now lets get back on topic shall we?

California Housing Prices Resumed Their Downward Price Adjustment

http://picpaste.com/pics/d039f4edecda272a64d53fe7fd280007.1366254482.png

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:20:16

Strange that Pimpy believes anyone playing with the principles here must have a “debt shack”.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 19:35:21

Here’s some more schooling for you.

The Housing Market “Recovery” Is A Complete Myth

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1151771-the-housing-market-recovery-is-a-complete-myth

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 20:02:28

Weird, Pimpy thinks he needs to address *me* regarding some sort of housing recovery. Pimpy must not be reading very closely. Funny Pimpy.

 
Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 20:21:16

A complete myth…..

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 21:53:48

As long as there are no myththpellings.

 
 
 
Comment by Salinasron
2013-04-18 09:01:53

What are your losses on your depreciating life expectancy?

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 09:16:24

Not nearly as much as the growing losses from the inflated price you recently paid for your Debt-Dump.

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Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 18:08:40

Strange how Pimpy worries about what he imagines for other people’s losses, even if the other people are happy. Is Pimpy only happy if other people are unhappy? Schadenfreude by projection… :)

 
Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 18:23:46

Strange how liars like MacGirl(wink) attempt to detract from the housing disaster by personalizing it… :)

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 18:37:24

Strange how Iwoggle ;) engages the Straw Man. Where in this discussion has Macboy opined about the housing disaster

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 18:39:36

Back on topic…. for more tears of joy…

Contra Costa County California Housing Price Declines Resumed

http://picpaste.com/pics/1a17859d0a73ae3132cbd224cdf0096b.1366303900.png

Housing demand here is non-existent.

Happy reading.

 
Comment by localandlord
2013-04-18 18:52:03

Macboy, I think you nailed it. Did you notice you disconcerted PW got when I posted I’d paid $10/sf for my house? You would think he would be happy to hear that a 50 yr old house had depreciated. Maybe he is upset that it is still standing and providing shelter 35 years later.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 19:19:32

The growing losses on your depreciating shack in nowhereland are yours and yours alone.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:27:38

If I had a shack and if it were depreciating, why would that be a bad thing? Pimpy is trying sooo hard to have Schadenfreude.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 19:33:21

Nobody cares about the losses on your depreciating shack. You own them.

 
 
Comment by tresho
2013-04-18 10:33:51

What are your losses on your depreciating life expectancy?
Every breath you take, every beat of your heart, is one less a part of your life, something you cannot recover.

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Comment by inchbyinch
2013-04-18 05:42:15

Thank you, oxide.
Ben and ahansen, thank you as well from last night.
All great data points.
I don’t like destroying nature,
but this lawn area is problematic.

Comment by MacBeth
2013-04-18 06:52:30

If you want a good lawn, don’t overwater. Encourage the roots to grow deep.

 
Comment by cactus
2013-04-18 08:59:07

but this lawn area is problematic.”

Best thing about Phoenix I didn’t have to have a lawn.

In the West with water rates this high the whole wall to wall grass idea is expensive and lame.

 
Comment by MiddleCoaster
2013-04-18 13:48:24

I have an ongoing war against grass. Every year, a bit more of the lawn is converted to garden beds. Someday, a decade or so from now, all the lawn will be gone baby gone.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-04-18 14:53:34

There’s a book called Food, Not Lawns. A real manifesto for the grass warriors.

With regards from your HBB Librarian…

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Comment by inchbyinch
2013-04-18 18:15:33

Az Slim
Thank for another book to read.
I grew a backyard garden in the 80’s. It was the most rewarding yet back breaking labor of good health, and a testimony to we don’t appreciate the seed to our table process. It was rewarding, but this gal is older.
The book sounds like a worthwhile read.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 18:26:59

DebtJunky,

What did you pay for your debt-dump?

 
Comment by MiddleCoaster
2013-04-18 18:59:39

I like raised beds for veggie growing. I smother the grass with cardboard and paper, then layer on shredded leaves, grass clippings, compost etc. It’s way easier than digging, and in the years that follow you just have to add some new compost every year.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by FB wants a do over
2013-04-18 04:33:55

Received a bunch of credit card offers in the mail this week. Also received some checks from an exsiting credit card provider for transferring balances, etc . It’s been a long time since I’ve received these types of offers.

Suspect it won’t be long now before there’s a another financial crisis.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-04-18 09:13:12

Here in Tucson, I’m noticing quite the uptick in homes for sale. They’re not on the market for very long.

OTOH, there’s a veritable sea of rental houses and apartment complexes looking for tenants. Last I heard, our local rental vacancy rate was around 15%.

Methinks that all of those people who bought recently houses to rent out are going to be VERY disappointed.

Comment by brother_jimmy
2013-04-18 11:01:40

Right up ol 10 from you is the epicenter of the next crisis, which is starting as I write. Funny enough, didn’t Queen Creek start the last bust? Some things just don’t change.

 
 
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2013-04-18 13:35:59

Yeah, I’ve been getting those again too. Why pay interest anymore? Just borrow and transfer every 15-18 months. I’m sure someone is making a mint off of that, right? Works for me, though.

Comment by PeakHubris
2013-04-18 20:25:12

Why borrow?

 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 04:36:10

Housing is always a loss. Always.

Comment by joe the IRA stuffer
2013-04-18 04:59:28

Especially when the metric for correctly priced housing is 5k finished finished lots, zoned for sfh, in exclusive areas, e.g. Bethesda, Greenwich, etc.

RAL tested me that He found me a 1/2 acre lot on Dune Road in Westhampton NY. He said the house will be done by july 4. I’m excited. 55/sq. Ft. And 5k for the lot.

Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 06:38:25

we will be in aspen in 3 weeks picking up a 5k lot, preferably one in a ski-in, ski-out location. hopefully he can get our house built by the start of the 2013-2014 ski season.

Comment by joe the IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 06:41:51

Since you’re getting it so cheap, mind renting it out to me for a few weeks a year on the cheap?

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Comment by MiddleCoaster
2013-04-18 09:57:33

5k for a lot in Aspen? Should be no problem! :D

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Comment by ahansen
2013-04-18 21:50:23

Carbon Beach for me. 5K ought to buy me a dandy square foot or so.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 05:09:49

http://www.infowars.com/obama-covering-up-saudi-link-to-boston-bombing/

As I said would happen two days ago. Government is a loss always.

Comment by AmazingRuss
2013-04-18 07:45:21

Another conspiracy! They’re everywhere!

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 08:17:53

They are but you can put your head in a sand if you find comfort in not knowing. This whole blog is based on the premise that housing prices have been artificially inflated, so people in glass houses should not throw stones.

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Comment by AmazingRuss
2013-04-18 08:22:26

Wake up sheeple!

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 09:33:36

How do you think that .02% of the world really runs the world while creating the illusion that many countries are democracies in the true sense of the word?

 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2013-04-18 09:53:02

Then you must be in favor of taking away their wealth so that they can’t control us anymore. Sounds kinda commie.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 10:03:09

If you have read my posts closely I do support higher taxes on billionaires. What I object to is lumping billionaires and millionaires in the same category in setting tax rates. But one of the best ways to redistribute wealth is to have a dynamic free enterprise system and keep government from propping up losers. Why did we support the big banks including investment banks when they were broke? Yes, we need a banking system but instead of bailing out the big banks we could have helped the regional banks and even credit unions to provide loans to businesses and individuals.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2013-04-18 10:10:45

This whole blog is based on the premise that housing prices have been artificially inflated, so people in glass houses should not throw stones.

Well, I at least, am trying to understand the reality of the situation.

1) Regarding house prices, the reality of why they skyrocketed was due to bad lending, and the ability to sell those bad loans and pocket a fee. And house prices are directly tied to how much money one can raise. That’s my conclusion over all these years of looking into it.

2) Regarding government conspiracies - government is not competent enough to a) run sophisticated conspiracies and b) keep them quiet.

Government is composed of people. To be blunt, there are a few geniuses, a lot of morons, and probably an equal number of average-competence people. That’s what I’ve seen.

Yeah, there’s DARPA, which has a higher genius-to-moron ratio. And there’s military special operations which typically has a lot of competent people. But even they like to gossip.

Yes, government likes to keep a lot of things secret. Yes, government wants to draw power to itself. Yes, it will naturally sink into corruption as that is human nature. But highly competent it is not. Especially not enough to run sophisticated false flag operations in an elaborate game of chess.

 
Comment by zee_in_phx
2013-04-18 10:44:18

+++1

“government is not competent enough to a) run sophisticated conspiracies and b) keep them quiet.”

We The People just have to make sure a ‘bad actor’ isn’t running a rogue operation under the auspices of “f u its natnl scurty “

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 12:08:30

2) Regarding government conspiracies - government is not competent enough to a) run sophisticated conspiracies and b) keep them quiet.

The question is not a government conspiracy but whether .02 percent of world effectively run everything and through their ownership of the media and their ability to make and break political leaders move things in a direction that they want even when a majority of the people oppose that direction. I think the answer is yes and most of the time people are not even aware that they are being played. They do not see that the .02% share an agenda since they have been conditioned to see things through the prism of left or right. W and Obama both share the agenda of open borders, they may attempt to justify to their manipulated supporters differently but it is the same agenda.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2013-04-18 05:14:28

But the loss is relative. Renting is also a loss. If the house is bought right - bought at the right price - then the loss from buying can be lower than the loss from renting.

It comes down to price: The price you pay determines your rate of return.

It also comes down to your job: If your job has you moving around a lot then it may pay to rent. If you don’t have to move around a lot then it may pay to buy.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 05:19:27

The losses associated with buying at current inflated asking prices of resale housing are massive and irrecoverable.

Comment by Combotechie
2013-04-18 06:41:24

“… current inflated askng prices …”

Which is my point, or at least one of them.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 05:56:17

The price you pay determines your rate of loss.

Comment by joe smith
2013-04-18 06:20:24

Expense, not loss.

Considering the meeting of a basic human need (shelter) to be either a profit *or* a loss shows how sick the western mindset really is.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:34:56

Housing is always a loss, and you always lose alot.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 06:35:21

Considering rental rates are half the loss that buying is shows how insidious your BS is.

 
Comment by GeorgeSalt
2013-04-18 06:39:52

Are you calculating that loss in Ameros?

 
Comment by joe the IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 06:46:13

I offered you a way to completely reject the idiotic so-called modern/western way of thinking about shelter/housing and you persist with the idea that we need “profit” or “loss” black/white characterization. OK, then. Carry on.

Looks like I’m going to have to write the New Testament version of Your Book.

 
Comment by MacBeth
2013-04-18 06:58:36

Good comment, joe. I agree.

The trick is to cut the expense. To worry about loss on housing is ill-conceived.

I wonder if people worry about their “loss” on food as well. Me? I consider the expense.

One can always work to mitigate expense. And one should.

Save your money, joe. Hopefully within 10 years you can quit, leave Washngton and do something you find meaningful.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2013-04-18 08:05:14

Considering the meeting of a basic human need (shelter) to be either a profit *or* a loss shows how sick the western mindset really is.

Every meal that I eat is a “loss” too, I suppose.

Time to back to that old college favorite, Top Ramen?

Joe, I agree–basic human needs must be met, and they do not always need to be met in the cheapest-available form.

 
Comment by joe the S Corp IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 08:19:12

Cheapest =/= best, for sure. In government contracting, some procurements are “lowest cost technically compliant”, meaning that the gov’t is telling bidders they aren’t going to award extra points for anything above a minimum standard.

Shockingly, in my (admittedly brief) experience, these are some of the *worst* deals for the government. Mysteriously, the cheapest way that you can do something isn’t synonymous with the best way to do it. The government sometimes realizes that it could get alot [sic] more value for a modest amount of money. Or they realize that their minimum standards didn’t specify one or two things, so the bidders achieved lowest cost by completely gutting other aspects of bids. Lawyers become inevitable.

Another kind of procurement standard is “best value”, where a baseline standard is set in the RFP but overall value for the money is considered over and above the bare minimum. There are potholes in that road as well, but sometimes there are genuine breakthroughs where you spend more early on but the government acquires valuable IP, establishes a new standard operating procedures, or eliminates the need for a redundancy.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 08:21:02

A loss on $100 spent ___ is recoverable. A $350,000 loss on a rapidly depreciating house is not.

 
Comment by sfhomowner
2013-04-18 09:57:17

Considering the meeting of a basic human need (shelter) to be either a profit *or* a loss shows how sick the western mindset really is.

Commie talk.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2013-04-18 10:25:52

Expense, not loss.

Considering the meeting of a basic human need (shelter) to be either a profit *or* a loss shows how sick the western mindset really is.

This is a good point. Shelter is always an expense. Even if/when you pay off the mortgage, you’ll still have the taxes, insurance and maintenance. With a mortgage, people speak in terms of the PITI. They should speak in terms of the PITIM - M for maintenance.

I suppose it comes down to what’s going to be best for your short term and long term cashflow. I do like the concept of buying and not having a mortgage or rental payment. But with buying - it’s real money that I’m on the hook for. Yes, I can take out absurdly large loans for small, expensive houses. But the only group that profits as a result of that are realtors and Wall Street - the FIRE sector.

It was amazing to me that house prices went up due to bad lending, and then Uncle Fed stepped in to prop them up at those levels. Maybe if I slip a few bucks to my congress critters and promise Uncle Ben a speaking engagement, the Fed can use that magic checkbook to prop up the value of my firearms once the current firearms buying mania subsides. Hey don’t laugh - NRA and NAR both consist of the same letters, maybe the former can work its magic with the Fed like they both do with politicians.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-04-18 12:03:18

I would suggest MITI, because if you actually maintain the house properly, you will probably have something of value to sell when all is said and done (and the P is reduction of debt, not an expense).

 
Comment by joe the S Corp IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 13:50:20

I would suggest MITI, because if you actually maintain the house properly, you will probably have something of value to sell when all is said and done (and the P is reduction of debt, not an expense).

——-

I’m going to go pop some popcorn when I get home tonight and see RAL blow his stack when he reads this…

 
Comment by Neuromance
2013-04-18 13:51:01

something of value to sell when all is said and done

Sort of. One is always forced to find shelter.

I remember talking to a friend of mine who bought before the peak of the bubble, in a desirable area near DC. Prices were galloping upwards and I asked, ‘When are you going to sell?’ He said there was no point to it, as he’d have to just have to buy a yet more expensive house.

If one has a paid-off asset, and one dies and then the estate can sell it and distribute the proceeds among the beneficiaries. There is that angle.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-04-18 15:24:12

I know it seems to be a controversial idea…that real estate doesn’t simply disintegrate to dust, but there are millions of examples all over the US, of homes, that despite being poorly maintained for many years (under-investment of “M” in your equation), still have utility for people seeking shelter, and thus still have value.

If you maintain your house (ie. invest “M”), it will have even more utility at the end of your use of it. Will the investment of “M” maintain it’s full value? Unlikely.

However, if, taken to it’s extreme, if you acquired a home with a 100%, fully amortizing loan over 30 years, and you invested PITIM for 30 years straight (and thus paid off the loan in it’s entirety), it is unreasonable to believe that the home is worthless at that point. Some amount of the “P” that you paid over time will come back on resale.

The question is whether resale value is greater than P+M…I wouldn’t plan on that…if you are actually performing reasonable Maintenance, and unless you happen to live during a time of excessive inflation, or the local market moves up much faster than inflation during your time of ownership.

In other words, the maintenance money fights back the deterioration of the asset, but can’t stop it. Maintenance is the cost of that deterioration.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 16:04:34

It’s called depreciation Rental Pimp. Depreciation.

And all man made items are subjected to it. And eventually, it depreciates to zero dollars.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-04-18 18:02:22

Depreciation is an accounting term, used to estimate the deterioration of an asset.

Not worth fighting over the words, but here is the question:

And how long is “eventually” if you continually invest maintenance $ into the home?

50 years? 75? 100? Longer?

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 18:16:33

The real question is this;

When will you get honest about your minimizing carrying costs v. your maximizing entry costs?

You reverse them and you do so intentionally, regardless of the fact you’ve demonstrated you don’t know anything about either.

 
Comment by ahansen
2013-04-18 22:00:55

“PITI-M” Pity ‘em.
Excellent.

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2013-04-18 06:43:31

That brings up the Prof’s question from yesterday:

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-17 17:11:53
Who would be crazy enough to take out a mortgage to buy on these terms, where your competition consists of strong hands, including all-cash Canadian and Chinese oligarchs and Blackstone?

Jack McCabe’s column (and some of HBB) talked about hedge funds and others in cash eventually buying up the real estate to where J6P was priced out of the market altogether turning the nation into a 68% rentership society instead of 68% ownership. Money comes from rental-backed-bonds, or whatever vehicle they invent.

At the same time, greedy LL’s and low interest rates have conspired to give PITI’s which are competitive with rent. It’s sort of a new version of “buy now or be priced out forever.” More like: “overpay for a house now and at least know you’ll own the house outright from age 62-85… or overpay for rent now and be stuck paying rent for life.”

So, I’m not so sure that buying now is “crazy,” IF the plan is to eventually get a paid-off house.* In the words of The Pimp, if you don’t buy now, you’re going to lose a lot of money [paying rent when you're old]. ALOT of money.

—————–
*if the plan is to count on house appreciation, forget it you’re screwed.

Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 07:05:47

Or you can realize that there is middle ground between the bubble coasts “where the jobs are” and Oil City “where the jobs aren’t” in parts of Flyover and rent for half the cost of buying.

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Comment by MacBeth
2013-04-18 07:18:46

Are you kidding?

And leave the always idyllic, socially-aware environs of Washington, New York, Boston, Boulder, San Francisco and San Diego?

It’s a lifestyle, man!

Spending exhorbitant amounts of money in support of who I think I am is well every penny.

Besides, everyone else is doing it.

 
Comment by oxide
2013-04-18 07:49:54

DC is idyllic in that I have a job there.

There are healthy parts of the Upper South and Midwest (and probably Southwest), especially FootBall U and Basketball U towns, which are a nice middle ground, as the squadron says. University cities are generally no larger than medium-sized (boonie-boonie diameter <20 mi), so even a short drive will take you to Oil City housing.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 07:51:30

How much $$ did you pay for your Debt-Dump?

 
Comment by joe the S Corp IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 08:25:52

To be clear, you could find Oil City-ish housing that *technically* is commutable to DC. It just can’t be near the MARC/Amtrak trains or the prices will inflate so you’ll have to become a looser [sic] commuter and beat up your car for 50 miles each way. Welcome to He11.

 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 09:45:52

driving 50 miles each way in dc traffic? that sounds like some great work-life balance there. any financial advantage of paying oil city prices would be negated by spending 3 hours a day driving.

 
Comment by localandlord
2013-04-18 10:40:21

Oooh, I had a conversation with a refugee from Portland yesterday. The first words out of her mouth were “I’m from Portland” like it is a badge of honor. Needless to say she wasn’t interested in a cheaper apartment on my unfashionble side of town. I had to tell her there was a snob tax on the apartment in the trendy nabe. I ought to double it for hipster refugees.

 
Comment by joe the S Corp IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 11:04:49

Actually, I forgot, there is a MARC train to Frederick (it actually goes all the way to the WV/MD border area). That wouldn’t be awful if it takes about an hour each way? But it might be longer, not sure.

 
Comment by sfhomowner
2013-04-18 11:16:19

There’s been a ton of research done recently on “happiness”. Turns out that the daily activity most injurious to happiness is commuting.

Personally, I wish I could run to work. The 3 miles I drive takes about 13 minutes, so I could easily run it in less than 24 minutes. But many days I have my laptop and a pile of books and my lunch and coffee. It’s not as much fun to run with a pack on.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2013-04-18 13:14:06

The first words out of her mouth were “I’m from Portland” like it is a badge of honor.

If she actually is from Portland (as opposed to simply coming to your area from Portland) it’s probably because this area has become so conditioned over the past decade+ to think it’s the only place in which one can exist, one of the reasons I’m losing my desire to live here.

While I find it has many redeeming qualities, based on how I like to spend my weekends, I find that Portland has become the Paris Hilton/Kim Kardashian of cities. It’s popular because it’s popular.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2013-04-18 13:25:45

And if she wasn’t actually from here, I suspect what brought her here was the Paris Hilton effect. Can’t tell you how many youngsters I overhear saying things suggesting they tripped all over themselves to overcome all obstacles in their zeal to move here.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 14:14:52

While I find it has many redeeming qualities, based on how I like to spend my weekends, I find that Portland has become the Paris Hilton/Kim Kardashian of cities. It’s popular because it’s popular.

And like those ladies, only a small portion of the population even cares. But the insiders talk and obsess amongst themselves to reinforce the notion that “everyone who is anyone” cares. You see it among some Boulder people, too.

 
Comment by localandlord
2013-04-18 19:07:28

I think if she had grown up in Portland and had been priced out I would have some sympathy for her. If she had even considered looking at the apt in my nabe I would have sympathy for her. But there is a subset of liberal bigots who like to look down on working class white people and they annoy me.

My guess is she moved to Portland to avoid the hoi polloi.

 
 
Comment by sfhomowner
2013-04-18 11:04:26

More like: “overpay for a house now and at least know you’ll own the house outright from age 62-85… or overpay for rent now and be stuck paying rent for life.”

If you are young enough, this doesn’t apply. But not everyone has the luxury of decades ahead of us to time the market perfectly.

We wanted to buy in 2003. Watched and waited. Got 11 years closer to retirement.

Paid almost 250K in rent while waiting. Quarter of a million bucks to rent a house we didn’t ever really love. Glad to be done with landlords.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 11:15:56

So instead you sign up to pay 1.5 million and still have a $200k house in a run down section of town.

Brilliant.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 14:18:54

Quarter of a million bucks to rent a house we didn’t ever really love.

I’ve owned a house that I “loved”. Turns out I love freedom more, and my house is in no way connected to my career so that makes it easy to choose. Took me a while to figure that out and take advantage of it.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 11:58:01

“*if the plan is to count on house appreciation, forget it you’re screwed.”

If the plan is to count on long-term housing price depreciation off current historically-high prices in real terms compared to costs of other basic household needs besides shelter, then you are sane.

“In the words of The Pimp, if you don’t buy now, you’re going to lose a lot of money [paying rent when you're old]. ALOT of money.”

Doesn’t it matter what you did with the money you did not spend on purchasing a depreciating asset? (Don’t mean to single you out here; you have reported many times that you bought at a good price…)

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Comment by oxide
2013-04-18 12:19:31

Doesn’t it matter what you did with the money you did not spend on purchasing a depreciating asset?

Of course it matters. If rent is cheaper than PITI, then you have to decide what to do with the savings by renting. One option is to pack it into a savings account. Ideally, after 30 years of renting intead of buying, you would have saved enough in rent to buy and Oil City house outright. You still have a paid off house when you retire. I was considering that option, but I found that if rent goes up even a little each year, the rent savings would diminish over ~12 years to 0. Then I would lose money even before retiring; I would never get close to a paid-off house. I almost had no choice.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 14:21:36

I almost had no choice.

Really?

I get what you’re saying but it assumes that rent, like house prices, always goes up.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 14:31:03

I almost had no choice.

SCHWEEET! LOL

Now…

What was the transaction price you paid for your debt-schack?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 15:38:39

“One option is to pack it into a savings account.”

Not a viable option.

“I get what you’re saying but it assumes that rent, like house prices, always goes up.”

Over a period when housing prices dropped by a large percentage and are still underwater from when we started renting, our rent has increased by on average by 1.7 percent a year nominal, and has gone down in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. And it hasn’t increased in several years. And the flood of new rental housing hasn’t even hit the market yet.

Contrary to some people’s beliefs, rents do not always go up.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Overtaxed
2013-04-18 05:30:10

“Housing is always a loss. Always.”

We should not become like the moron cheerleaders on the other side of this debate. Just like “housing always goes up”, “housing is a loss” is NEVER an accurate statement. Housing can be a loss. It can also be a loss “most of the time”. But it is not “always” a loss; just ask the idiots who were riding the wave 2002-2006. Wasn’t a loss for them; and therefore, it’s obvious it’s not ALWAYS a loss.

If you buy a house today for around 100 sq/ft in a nice area of the country, you’re very unlikely to take a loss on a sale, particularly if you have a reasonable time horizon (10 years or so).

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 06:40:03

Look….. If you’re paying $100/sq for a used up house, you will lose money. Alot of money.

Comment by Overtaxed
2013-04-18 07:37:35

“Look….. If you’re paying $100/sq for a used up house, you will lose money. Alot of money.”

You MAY lose money. And that MAY be a lot of money. You may break even. And you may make money.

It’s LIKELY that you’ll lose money, but by no means assured in any direction anymore. When prices were 300/sq/ft in my area (S. FL) I agreed with you, there was only one way for them to go (down like the Titanic). Now that they are closer to 100/sq/ft, it’s up the air. People who bought a few years ago are selling for today for what they paid, in some cases, more.

You need to turn “always” into “likely”. Then you’ll be saying something true and will stop appearing as the moron cheerleaders did during the run up. If even one person manages to buy today and sell 1 year from now for more then they paid, you’re hypothesis is blown; always is a VERY strong word, almost never associated with any economic phenomenon.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:43:58

“We should not become like the moron cheerleaders on the other side of this debate.”

You should try renting a home in SD, where there is no decent inventory right now, for rent or for sale.

My wife, who is less tuned into finance and real estate than I, is helping two of our kids with a project where the assignment is to do the market research before making a major purchase.

One kid chose to buy a TV; the other a house.

My wife was happy to report that really nice TVs are now available for south of $200. But she was shocked, SHOCKED to learn that home prices in our area (at least those currently listed on the market) are now offered at higher prices than when we first moved here in the mid-2000s, before the bubble dip and slow-mo dead cat bounce. And we were onto the bubble already back then. I haven’t heard a recent project update, but I am going to make sure that part of the choices they research include moving to a cheaper city or renting. No kid should grow up stupid enough to believe that one has to pay insane prices for the privilege of enjoying massive future capital losses.

So far as our area is concerned, you could lose alot of money right now buying a house — ALOT.

Comment by Al
2013-04-18 06:57:11

“…could lose alot of money right now buying a house — ALOT.”

COULD. Not if housing is ALWAYS a loss. If you’re going to be a moron chearleader like on the other side of the debate, you have to say you WILL lose alot of money. No going half way anymore it seems.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 07:01:41

At current inflated asking prices of resale housing? Yes….it will ALWAYS be a loss. There is no maybe. Especially due to the fact that rental rates are half the cost of buying.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 07:12:36

My cars always prove a “loss”, but they are so much fun along the way. Just sayin’…

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-04-18 07:14:45

Your house is a massive loss too. From which you’ll never recover. Why? Because you paid a massively inflated price like millions of other suckers who didn’t have the mental fortitude to say no.

You’re not alone.

 
Comment by joe the S Corp IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 07:51:11

The protein bar and apple I had for breakfast are a loss as well, I should’ve scrounged up some dandelion leaves and dug up some nuts from where I saw a squirrel hide them last autumn. You know, since opportunity costs and quality differentials don’t need to be taken into account.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 18:09:49

Weird how Housing Analyst asserts that I own a house…

 
Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 18:21:54

Weird how MacBoy denies he’s a bank slave.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:01:06

Weird how i-woggle thinks it knows about other folks’ personal finances. Just sayin’… ;)

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-04-18 19:16:03

Cmon out liar…. no need to hide.

“Boomerang Foreclosures” Are Back As Bernanke’s Second Housing Bubble Begins To Pop

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-14/boomerang-foreclosures-are-back-bernankes-second-housing-bubble-begins-pop?

And the pop has begun in CA.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 19:31:52

You’re backpedalling…. Just sayin’…;)

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 20:04:35

Weird the Anal-yst tries to misdirect into “foreclosures”. More foreclosures da batter, Macboy always says.

 
Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 20:19:40

And there always Falling Prices in Manhatttan

http://picpaste.com/5d5674837f083eb44d8dcba40b43b435.png

Bummer huh? lol

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 21:56:38

Falling prices in Manhattan would be great. My rent has gone up the last 8 years…

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 23:24:38

Pimpy can’t peddle. But Pimpy does piddle…

 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2013-04-18 07:01:57

I hope that you advise your wife and son/daughter to compare houses in San Diego with similar houses elsewhere in the country.

It’d further their knowledge.

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Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 07:10:25

Please don’t move here. We have enough California equity locusts already.

 
Comment by MacBeth
2013-04-18 07:23:50

You’ll soon have Washington D.C. locusts as well.

Fancy that.

Colorado is no longer where it’s at. It used to be such a great place, too. Sad.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 08:35:00

Colorado is no longer where it’s at. It used to be such a great place, too.

So what’s wrong with it now, other than that it’s difficult to get rich on real estate but also difficult to live cheap because the cost of real estate has plateaued for a time at “too expensive for local incomes”?

 
Comment by Rancher
2013-04-18 15:07:04

CO is now known as DC West.

 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 15:46:44

DC West?

Regarding the number of federal and contractor jobs here, yes it is DC West.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 16:19:00

CO is now known as DC West.

By who? That’s a new one on me…

 
 
Comment by joe the IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 07:03:46

A good idea for TVs is to look at the returns/damaged items at Best Buy. I got a brand new 60″ Samsung plasma 600hz/1080p for $810 in February. It had arrived to the store with a hair-thickness superficial scratch about 1/2″ long in the extreme lower right corner of the screen. You can’t tell it’s there at all, you have to look very close. I thought the price tag on it was a mistake, I had to ask some salespeople what the flaw was.

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Comment by mikeinbend
2013-04-18 07:36:08

The inventory squeeze is quite real; and preventing radical price declines. But when folks trying to sell their higher end properties need to sell; watch out below, IMO.

Here in Bend(pop 80k) there are currently less than 1000 properties for sale. Lots of these are on the higher end of the price scale; these are NOT moving(and much longer supply of inventory). The low end, anything under 200k, is at less than 1 month of supply. I am not pimping real estate here.

A few years ago a similar search would typically reveal about 2500 houses for sale.

The fact that Ral found 5000 for sale units in SF(population 10x Bend, I assume) means that there is not a lot of inventory out there, even, or especially, in SF.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 07:44:44

“I am not pimping real estate here.”

Sure you are. You and your sob stories. That’s why you’re here. And you are why we’re here.

 
Comment by sfhomowner
2013-04-18 11:41:12

there is not a lot of inventory out there, even, or especially, in SF.

Friend of mine sold her house in SF in 2007 for a fantastic profit and moved to Portland. She hates it there and wants to move back (she grew up in the city). Too rainy for her in Portland and she isn’t happy with the schools.

She wants to move back to SF but cannot. Nothing for sale and can’t rent a place for her family of 4 for less than $3000 a month. She can pay all cash (trust fundy) and still can’t find a place.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 11:44:31

Of course she can’t! LOL

This ruse of yours….. did you know nobody believes it?

 
Comment by mikeinbend
2013-04-18 13:00:41

I believe it. Why would she make stuff up? Plus she has a very consistent character and I just cant fathom a ruse of any kind. I give her the benefit of whatever doubts I could ever have. She surfs, dig?

I have a sister who lived in Beaverton for 10 years. I just hated the weather when visiting. So did her ex-husband. Sunny here in Bend most the time.

Now she lives in San Mateo and I hear 0 complaints about the weather. But she rents for 3k/month. Luckily she is a veterinarian and can afford it; plus private school for the kids and private school for her step-kids as well. She even employs her hubby as a vet-tech or else is sending him to seminary, even though he is an atheist; he is determined to prove there is no God or something. Must be a riot to have a devil’s advocate at preacher school! or Photography school or whatever his classicly French essence wishes. He is kinda a leech.

Aside re: step parenting. It rips kids apart. Or can anyway. My sis posts on facebook how much she hates seeing her son come home from dad’s with grape colored mouth. Studies have shown, and all, how bad that is…..and Dad gave him grape soda, and probably will continue knowing it pisses off my sister. Kids as weapons; no consistent rules in play as Mom has one bedtime and Dad another, etc.

However; my sis wont allow her chubby daughter to play basketball. No clue why except Dad is pro-sports, Mom, not so much. Dad administers ADHD meds to the (adopted meth-baby son), mom, not so much. She sent him, off meds, to us last summer and it was heckish. Coffee anyone(for the kid)?

She also pulled same 10 year old son off the pitcher’s mound, where he had longed to be all season, because it was time to attend his tutoring. I try not to think about their turmoil too much. I believe that nurturing self esteem is more important; but she does not think pitching in some baseball game has any value, so she pulls him right off the mound! I blush to think of this. She puts herself above the other kids on the team, the coaches, the whole shebang.

And feel sorry for her messed up kids thanks to drug addicted birth parents, being adopted, enduring another family split, and last summer the birth mom along with new brothers got added to these kids “family”. What kinda concept of family do they have I wonder?

Oldest step-nephew just got accepted to Princeton on 80% scholarship. He picked Princeton over a full ride at MIT(or Harvard, can’t remember) because he can spend some time before declaring a major and Astro-physics aint his cup of tea he decided after attending some super smack-camp last summer. He is not blood and since he speaks French amongst his family when I see him I can’t claim any of his smarts thru osmosis either. Except trying to decipher the lingo is brain work I guess.

 
Comment by sfhomowner
2013-04-18 13:19:39

She surfs, dig?

Unfortunately the surf sucks here in the Spring. Too windy.

Counting the days until we go to Hawaii. Even bad surf in Hawaii is good.

One of the pluses of buying a house is that we now know exactly what are monthly expenses are, have a good pile in savings for emergencies/maintenance, and are not stressing about having to move or rent increases.

We set aside money every month for retirement, college funds, and vacations. For me, the uncertainty of long-term renting with kids and dogs in an expensive city made it harder, not easier, to save.

It helps that our PITI is less than our rent was. And there are no 2 br SFH with yards in a safe neighborhood that allow dogs for less than $2K a month.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2013-04-18 13:53:17

Friend of mine sold her house in SF in 2007 for a fantastic profit and moved to Portland. She hates it there and wants to move back (she grew up in the city).

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. The (figurative) grass is always greener. See it all the time. Sorry, but my schadenfreude meter pegs every time I hear this…

 
Comment by joe the S Corp IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 13:53:29

Oldest step-nephew just got accepted to Princeton on 80% scholarship. He picked Princeton over a full ride at MIT(or Harvard, can’t remember)
————–

This is the credited choice for undergrad. If he was offered a full ride elsewhere, tell him to call and ask Princeton to match. They are very good about matching financial offers for peer schools (Harvard, Yale, Stanford, MIT especially, i.e. the “direct competition”).

Acceptances for Ivies aren’t final until May 1. Tell him to call and get that financial aid raised.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 14:33:50

Why would she make stuff up?

For the same reason you come here and post lies. You’re liars.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2013-04-18 14:50:52

If it wasn’t clear, sfhomowner, my schadenfreude isn’t directed at your friend, but in support of her willingness to basically assert that the emperor has no clothes. Blasphemous around these parts.

 
Comment by sfhomowner
2013-04-18 15:17:39

My pal in Portland, like pretty much every else I know personally, really only wants a decent and affordable place to live, surrounded by friends, in a city she likes.

Making a pile of money by selling her place in SF near the top of the bubble means very little to her - she is now living in a place where she is unhappy.

I’ve told her to move back and rent, that this current mania will pass. But the thought of moving 2 more times, with her kids, is too much for her.

In my 20’s, freedom meant the ability to move around and travel and explore. I lived out of my car for 6 months while traveling across the US, lived out of my backpack while traveling through Europe for a year.

Living like that now, or jumping from rental to rental, as I am approaching 50, with 2 kids and a bunch of pets, sounds pretty hellish.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 16:02:25

“very unhappy”!….. “hellish”!

You realtor drama queens are over the top.

 
Comment by rms
2013-04-18 16:42:56

“Friend of mine sold her house in SF in 2007 for a fantastic profit and moved to Portland. She hates it there and wants to move back (she grew up in the city).”

She probably should have selected another “real” city like Seattle, which is a high density population city whereas Portland just has a downtown.

The weather is another issue.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 09:27:39

Was there ever an article published in a U.S. newspaper before, say, the year 1997 which openly cheered over housing prices that were rapidly climbing past unaffordable levels for the average family?

If you can find such an article, please post a link.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 09:31:33

Home prices hit nearly 5-year high
By Lily Leung11:21 a.m.
April 17, 2013

A new home in Carmel Valley. A new home in Carmel Valley. — Howard Lipin / Union-Tribune staff

Tight real estate supply and low mortgage rates have helped push San Diego County home prices to a nearly five-year high and kept sales brisk, according to a report Wednesday from local real estate tracker DataQuick.

The median price for all residential properties sold in March rose nearly 19 percent from a year ago to $380,000, the highest price since May 2008, when the median value also was $380,000.

A 19 percent year-over-year home-price increase for a March is uncharacteristic, DataQuick numbers show. The previous high, which was 20 percent, was recorded in March 2004, just before the peak of the real estate market.

Sales also saw a significant jump in March. They rose 16 percent from a year ago to 3,762, the best recording for a March since 2006, when roughly 4,300 properties were sold.

“Price measures continue to rise for two simple reasons,” DataQuick President John Walsh said in Wednesday’s report. “First, demand for homes has risen at a time when the available supply is unusually low. Prices have had nowhere to go but up in many areas.

Related: “Dear seller” letters back in homebuying
=================================================
Reader Poll
Are housing prices starting to form a bubble again?
Yes 55%
No 44%

 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 09:40:19

we had the nasdaq bubble then.

see also the onion article ‘recession-plagued nation demands new bubble to invest in’

 
 
 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2013-04-18 07:48:21

Actually I think RAL IS a realtor, trying to discredit the blog.

Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 07:53:10

I think this blog has been infested with corrupt realtard thinking for a very long time.

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Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 23:26:04

iwog is a realtard.

 
 
 
Comment by localandlord
2013-04-18 10:31:54

When I get done with my current remodeling endeavor I will be netting, each year, more money than I paid for the house. (admittedly 35 yrs ago). With just the 2 out of 3 units that are currently rented I am netting about half what I paid for the house.

So “housing is always a loss” is not an accurate statement. Generalities rarely are.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 11:02:14

As a residence, housing is a loss ALWAYS

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Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 23:27:17

Being alive, financially is a loss ALWAYS. Will Pimpy kill himself to avoid the loss?

 
 
 
 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 07:09:49

Life is always a loss. But, it is fun to have anyway. Perhaps your unhappiness stems from how you see the loss. You know, the game of life *is* hard to play, and you’re gonna lose it anywaaaay.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-04-18 07:13:16

Your method to living is creating greater losses?

Gotcha.

In the meantime, the losses associated with resale housing at current massively inflated asking prices is irrecoverable.

Rental rates are half the cost of buying.

Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 18:11:55

Weird how Housing Analyst presumes to know my “Method”.

ECHO Chamber anyone, “Thou shalt all feel as bad as I think thou should, because thou payest a mortagage against my better judgement….” (bring in the Thunder and Hail)…

Dang, my car just depreciated more today…

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Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 18:20:52

Weird how MacRealtor runs from the truth.

Dang….. your losses on your massively overpriced house just got greater today.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:02:30

Weird how I-woggle thinks it knows anything about other folks’ finances

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:03:33

Weird how I-woggle thinks it knows anything about other folks’ professions…

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 19:30:23

Weird how liars appear defending the fraud that is housing.

Sooooooooo… back on topic.

How large are your housing losses? 100k? 200k?

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 20:11:27

Weird how Pimpy projects house ownership onto others.

 
Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 20:14:59

Don’t be ashamed…. spit it out. What are you losses.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 21:58:11

I feel bad for Bigsby that he has losses…

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 23:28:36

Weird how Pimpy lives in housing and thus think he himself is a fraud.

 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 07:13:26

Adding up gas, lodging, lift tickets, and gear, our losses for the 2012-2013 ski season are incalculable.

Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 07:15:41

Exactamente. But, I’ll done bet you enjoyed the skiing. Sort of puts things in perspective :)

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-04-18 07:20:44

$100 loss is nothing compared to a $350,000 loss on a depreciating house.

Sort of puts things in perspective. :)

 
Comment by MacBeth
2013-04-18 07:33:26

Only idiots spend $350K on a house.

No matter where they live.

 
Comment by scdave
2013-04-18 07:39:22

Only idiots spend $350K on a house ??

Well, we must have the dumbest people on earth around here then…

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 07:45:47

Or liars.

And you’re one of them.

 
Comment by MacBeth
2013-04-18 07:46:50

Lots of people spend BIG money in support of who they think they are.

You’re one of them, apparently.

 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 17:12:56

and it ain’t over. skiing arapahoe basin on 4/27 and loveland on 5/5 for closing day. al gore’s global warming has been hitting us so hard recently that breckenridge and aspen highlands are re-opening this weekend.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 18:13:41

Housing Analyst sounds so unhappy…

 
Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 18:19:30

macboy sounds so dishonest…

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 18:32:04

Iwog is projecting again. :)

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 18:35:31

Macboy is hiding again. :)

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:04:42

Macboy is right here, laughing at Pimpy :)

Oops, my car just depreciated again… dang.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-04-18 19:14:07

C’mon out liar….

Alemeda County Housing Price Correction Resumed And Trending Down Again

http://picpaste.com/pics/3a0bf912e42e8c06bccff308694ece29.1366303165.png

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:29:01

Weird how Housing Analyst posts da Straw Man

 
Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 20:06:33

Let’s stay on topic now… afterall, this is The Housing Bubble Blog

b>Los Angeles Housing Prices Headed Down

http://picpaste.com/pics/2b63c36dea94847f55a62ebba334e4d8.1366201830.png

How ’bout them growing losses in LA heh? ;)

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 22:06:23

Bigbsy thinks he defines “on topic”. Funny…

 
 
 
Comment by brother_jimmy
2013-04-18 11:15:16

Yeah I often think it would be cheaper to be dead. ;)

Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:05:47

I hear ya brother… but soon we will have to hear Pimpy and Woggy cry about the expense of a gravestone. Cremation is cheaper dontya know…

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Comment by Mo Money
2013-04-18 10:04:50

“Housing is always a loss. Always.”

Keep paying my mortgage Pal, I get richer every month thanks to fools like you.

Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 10:13:09

Housing is a loss ALWAYS

 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 11:50:49

Keep paying my mortgage

Keep paying interest to rent money from the bank.

And keep telling yourself you’ll be Tom Vu someday.

Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:07:15

Seems to me it depends on the actual deal in play. Many lose money trying to rent things out. Many have made money. People do well and badly in stocks. Gold goes up and down. It’s all so… challenge ;)

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Comment by joe the IRA stuffer
2013-04-18 04:52:48

The DHS goons I see in balt and DC on my commute these days are armed to the teeth and have alot (sic) of K9s. These guys look like they do nothing all day but pump iron and shoot guns. They carry heavy fully automatic weapons and wear helmets and heavy vests. Definitely not like the usual slouchy cops I see, I wonder where they find these guys. Weird thing to see on a daily basis, almost like we’re in a police state. If I can snap a covert picture today without them seeing, I’ll post it so northTeasterner knows what to look for knocking at his door someday. Except I doubt these guys woodblock, they seem like the type to bash the door in at 3am, yank people into choppers, and whisk them off to unknown detention facilities.

Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 06:40:33

how do you know the difference between fully automatic and semi-automatic?

Comment by joe the IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 06:57:03

Are AR-15’s fully automatic? (You’re right, I don’t know, I should check)

Comment by Overtaxed
2013-04-18 07:45:11

AR-15 is the civilian version of an M-16. An M-16 is fully automatic (typically with select fire 3 round burst as well). An AR-15 is typically semi-auto (one round per trigger pull). Depends which govt goons you’re talking about, some carry the full military jobbers; which are auto. Most local governments only have AR-15s, semi auto.

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Comment by Rancher
2013-04-18 15:19:20

Twenty minutes with a vertical mill, adding a pivot pin and a sear and you turn a semi-auto
AR-15 into a full auto AR-16.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 07:45:56

Not usually. They can be modified and then they are like M-16s.

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Comment by joe the S Corp IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 08:10:33

Now that I look at some pictures online, maybe these were M-16s. They seem to look alot [sic] alike.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 08:39:23

Unless you actually see the selector switch you won’t be able to tell.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2013-04-18 10:24:55

almost like we’re in a police state.

I flew out of Portland this week. When I arrived at the line for security, there were several DHS guys there with what I assume were M-16s. I’ll admit I was a little shocked. Admittedly this was a few days after the Boston events, but for a second there I thought I was in Mexico.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2013-04-18 11:52:00

And yet at most public housing projects there is little security and a lot of crime…go figure

 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2013-04-18 06:53:18

Dude, you’re seeing heightened security as a response to the Boston Marathon bombings. Hence the bomb-sniffer K-9s.

And the goons have ALWAYS been well-armed in downtown DC, depending on where you are. Were you expecting Michelle’s garden to be guarded by mall-cops?

 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 08:33:00

almost like we’re in a police state

What a horribly unaesthetic place to live and work. No thanks!

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 08:38:23

They carry heavy fully automatic weapons and wear helmets and heavy vests. Definitely not like the usual slouchy cops I see, I wonder where they find these guys.

Well lets see…where have a steady supply of those guys been created for the last 10 years?

Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-04-18 09:14:12

My guesses are Iraq and Afghanistan.

 
 
Comment by Northeastener
2013-04-18 08:52:11

I’ll post it so northTeasterner knows what to look for knocking at his door someday

I did six years in the Infantry Joe… I know what roid-raged, bloodthirsty government goons look like and am quite familiar with what they’re carrying. There’s a reason I own a Sig P220 .45 and an AR-10 .308. Those calibers may not penetrate a trauma plate in one shot, but they pack enough energy to feel like you’ve been hit with a freight train.

As to no-knock warrants, they’re something right out of Nazi Germany’s SS operations manual. As you’ve stated previously, the “War on Drugs” has in fact created a “War on Civilians” and a militarization of the police that seems very Hiterlesque.

Comment by oxide
2013-04-18 09:26:54

OK, idiot civvie question: You see cops in body armor but with bare heads. :?: Rather than aiming for “vital organs” as if it’s still 1863 and you only have one bullet to disable the target, why aren’t you shooting for the head? If you miss, you still have 29(?) bullets without reloading.

Comment by Al
2013-04-18 09:42:40

Heads are small and if you shoot high, left or right you miss.

The torso, elegantly called the ‘centre of mass’, is larger and shooting wide might get an arm, leg or head.

Helmets aren’t designed to stop bullets either, just shrapnel. They might deflect a near hit.

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Comment by Northeastener
2013-04-18 10:35:15

OK, idiot civvie question

As others have said, center mass (center of upper torso) is ideal because it is a large area to hit. Head is much more difficult because it is a smaller area. Thus, the odds of a hit to the torso are greater than that to the head.

Bullets don’t fly in a straight line… they arc, first up when they leave the barrel, then down, as gravity and air resistance take their toll. Each caliber (and even different loads within a caliber) have different flight characteristics that change point of impact for a given range. Understanding where a particular caliber bullet will impact for a given range is part of marksmanship. Add adrenaline and the stress of combat to an already difficult-to-master skill with many variables and it becomes clear why we train to aim for center mass and not go all Hollywood with head shots.

Variables that go into putting a bullet on target:
* Caliber of bullet (ballistic coefficient, muzzle velocity, etc)
* Length of barrel
* Distance to target
* Zero distance (point of aim/point of impact for given range) of firearm/optic
* Elevation from sea level
* Air temperature/Humidity level
* Wind speed and direction
* Angle of attack to target
* Shooting fundamentals (breath control, trigger squeeze, sight picture)

All of these variables must align properly to put a bullet on a target. As distance increases, so to does the odds that any of the above variables will inordinately impact the placement of the bullet and move it from the shooters desired location.

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Comment by Rancher
2013-04-18 15:27:55

Delta goes for head shots, of course, they
practice with live hostages and up to 10,000
rounds a month.

Seals have better all around training, but
Delta is primed for hostage rescue and specific target takedowns. Delta are the
cream of the shooters.

 
 
Comment by Dale
2013-04-18 11:58:53

Perhaps the head is not considered a “vital organ” among these types.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 09:35:32

You are spot on Northeasterner.

 
Comment by Rancher
2013-04-18 15:23:06

Excellent choices. I added a .338 Lapua for heavy distance.

 
 
Comment by Michael Viking
2013-04-18 09:00:16

Maybe it’s not just that area that’s under “police” control. At least one person thinks Seattle is, too.

 
Comment by cactus
2013-04-18 09:44:38

almost like we’re in a police state.’

uh Huh

 
 
Comment by joe the IRA stuffer
2013-04-18 05:11:46

Yet another country legalizes gay marriage. This was in new zealand last night. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DW4DXOAXF8U&feature=youtube_gdata_player

 
Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 05:35:35

California Housing Prices Resumed Their Downward Price Adjustment

http://picpaste.com/pics/d039f4edecda272a64d53fe7fd280007.1366254482.png

Comment by rms
2013-04-18 07:26:57

That’s not representative of West San Jose, Saratoga, Los Gatos, Cupertino, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Los Altos Hills, etc., all of which show no hint of a recession. Plenty of big houses featuring manicured gardens, big newish cars, but I will admit that the road surfaces were just awful everywhere I drove including streets, expressways and the Interstate freeways. Taxes are likely high, but they are not using the money for road maintenance.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 07:47:07

Charts for those areas show the price declines have resumed from massively inflated levels.

Comment by Mo Money
2013-04-18 10:08:40

Keep dreaming loser, those charts are as wrong as you always are.

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Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 10:11:28

Zillow is a data aggregator and the charts are quite accurate.

 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 11:56:59

Keep dreaming?

Having all this money left over after “throwing money away on rent” every month is a real nightmare.

 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2013-04-18 07:47:33

all of which show no hint of a recession ??

Quite right….The smell of lots of money is in the air…And everyone is frantically running around to try and get their “Fair Share”…

I have smelled this smell before around here…Dot-Com comes to mind…How did that end up….When some are in the middle of the euphoria, its hard to see clearly…Think wisely…

 
Comment by joe the S Corp IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 07:48:18

RAL doesn’t make any distinctions between areas, there is no accounting for quality. When you accept that, you can understand His message better. To Him, Frederick MD is the same as Potomac, MD (hey, it’s only 20 or so miles, totally commutable if you want to live like that). Similarly, Cupertino or Sausalito are the same as Oakland or Richmond.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 07:58:59

Our material and labor costs are flat in all 48 states.

Get over it….. you liar.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2013-04-18 12:28:28

The dots represent the same month in prior years…got seasonality?

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 12:35:05

Got dead cat bounce?

Comment by Rental Watch
2013-04-18 18:42:13

Seems to bounce at exactly the same time every year…called seasonality.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 18:44:19

And bouncing lower……. you liar.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-04-18 19:58:42

Is that what the year-on-year UP 14% means?

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 20:01:12

No. That would be the TREND downward that you seemed to want to invoke when it’s convenient for your ongoing pimping.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-04-18 20:04:16

BTW, it’s a special kind of liar who reads “up” and screams at the top of his lungs “down”.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 05:45:02

Collapsing housing demand nationally…

http://picpaste.com/pics/ac22513e0abd273759551ee8c1556c53.1366288939.png

This is what happens when prices are massively inflated. And the best part about it? Demand won’t stop falling until prices roll back to pre-bubble levels.

Massive housing inventory, collapsing demand, millions of of houses depreciating by the day.

Cool. :mrgreen:

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:51:47

“And the best part about it?”

Too-clever-by-half hedge fund and all-cash Chinese and Canadian real estate investors are going to lose alot of money — ALOT!

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 05:45:56

Rentership Society concern:

Once the all-cash Chinese, Canadian and hedge fund landlord/investors start getting desperate for populating their U.S. SFR investment properties with renters, won’t they feel strongly tempted, if not legally obligated, to turn to Section 8 renters in order to keep returns high? Not that there is anything wrong with that…or is there?

Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 05:48:06

Ask the Japanese “investors” how that all worked out for them in the 1980’s. ;)

 
Comment by joe smith
2013-04-18 05:59:13

Sec. 8 is a tough deal, it makes sense if you are well capitalized and can play the government’s games. It does not make that much sense for people who own 1 or 2 properties and really need the income. One bad situation and some small-timer could be extremely frustrated.

I don’t consider people who own 1-2 properties to be real landlords, they are more like hobbyists. And expensive, heavily-regulated hobbyists at that. When you own enough properties, you start to get some economies of scale going and you should also be relatively unconcerned if you have some vacancies.

The one good thing about Sec. 8 is, you know you will get paid one way or the other, eventually, if you play the game. And usually Sec. 8 pays more than you could get on the open market. It’s just a question of whether you want to wade into the deep end.

 
Comment by Salinasron
2013-04-18 06:19:54

Sorry but I wouldn’t want to be the bag holder of property in a neighbourhood with section 8 housing.

Comment by it's hard out here for a pimp
2013-04-18 06:25:10

Whether you like it or not, that’s the future.

 
 
Comment by SECTION OCHO
2013-04-18 06:20:51

We’re getting ready to legalize about 20 million new Section 8 renters!

Comment by jose canusi
2013-04-18 06:30:38

Yeah, and if I had a Facebook account, I’d delete it ASAP. But I never wanted to line Zuckerberg’s pockets, so I never had one.

But go ahead and give Zuckerberg/immigration bill a google. In exchange for his support of the bill, he got a major loophole to employ cheap foreign techies. Nice, huh?

Yet all the sheep and sad sacks will continue to post their stupid pictures and adventures and parties and “likes” and “dislikes”.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 07:50:36

http://news.yahoo.com/student-debt-hurting-economy-073000999.html

We need new debt slaves. I have it why don’t we bring any illiterate immigrants and load them up with debt, that will fix the economy. (sarcasm ).

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 08:06:27

any=in

Bad typing and auto correct can be a dangerous combination.

 
 
 
Comment by ICLEI
2013-04-18 06:50:03

More residents applying for Section 8 housing vouchers

Published: March 9, 2013
By ALVA JAMES-JOHNSON Ledger-Enquirer

After losing her job as a machine operator at Mutec Battery in 2006, Charlene Wilson just wanted a decent place to live. First, she and her three children stayed briefly with her sister, then they moved into a public housing complex. Now they live comfortably in a three-bedroom house with a fenced yard and carport.Wilson, 39, is able to afford the home because she has a Section 8 voucher from the Housing Authority of Columbus.It subsidizes her rent and allows her to live anywhere in the city where the landlord accepts the subsidy and the property meets federal guidelines.”I was fortunate enough to find a house in the old neighborhood I grew up in,” said Wilson, who now works as a Medicaid eligibility specialist with the Department of Family and Children Services. “The neighbors on both sides were there when I was a little girl. So, I have no problems with them.”

“If we opened up the waiting list and advertised, say, for five days, we’d probably have 5,000 people on the waiting list, about 1,000 people a day,” said Len Williams, the housing authority’s chief executive officer.Williams said the trend toward vouchers signals a shift in government-funded housing from densely populated public housing complexes to privately owned single-family homes, apartments, duplexes and trailers throughout the city. The change has been fueled by the redevelopment of Peabody, now Ashley Station, and Baker Village, now Arbor Pointe.

The number of Section 8 residents in Columbus will increase even more if plans to redevelop the Booker T. Washington apartment complex move forward. The proposal calls for the demolition of the old brick buildings now located at the intersection of Veterans Parkway and Victory Drive. And they would be replaced by mixed-income housing and commercial development at the current location and a proposed 100-apartment complex around the historic Liberty Theater.

John Casteel, the housing authority’s chief assisted housing officer, who runs the Section 8 program, said many residents prefer vouchers to public housing units because they offer more flexibility and housing options. The program currently has a turnover rate of only 13 vouchers a month. Thirty-seven percent of Columbus Section 8 tenants stay on the program for five to 10 years, and 31 percent for two to five years, according to HUD statistics. Only three percent remain on the program two years or less.

http://www.ledger-enquirer.com/2013/03/09/2415117/more-residents-applying-for-section.html - 94k -

Comment by In Colorado
2013-04-18 07:43:09

I suspect that many people on the waiting lists will never see a voucher.

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Comment by cactus
2013-04-18 09:54:39

I suspect that many people on the waiting lists will never see a voucher.”

Yes only certain people get these vouchers. I suppose we will hear about bribes to get section 8 and Section 8 tenents sub-letting in the future.

Moral harzard is not restricted to Wall Street. I would even say many “poors” justify there actions on imitating the rich.

 
 
Comment by rms
2013-04-18 07:45:43

“After losing her job as a machine operator at Mutec Battery in 2006, Charlene Wilson just wanted a decent place to live.”

After she lost her income she just wanted another expense?

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Comment by oxide
2013-04-18 08:07:34

So after her kids turn 18, does Section 8 kick her out of her 3-bed house and back into a one-bedroom apartment? I hope so. Sorry, this is where my conservative streak kicks in. Decent place to live and 3-bedroom house with a yard are NOT the same.

But duh, I should have figured this out before. THAT’s why hedge funds are buying up these houses — for the guaranteed Section 8 rental stream.

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Comment by cactus
2013-04-18 09:50:58

But duh, I should have figured this out before. THAT’s why hedge funds are buying up these houses — for the guaranteed Section 8 rental stream.”

I expect Oxnard and Simi Valley CA to be full of them in a few years since Blackstone has bought Thousands of homes in both cities. And is over paying for the homes for some reason I can’t figure out ?

 
Comment by sfhomowner
2013-04-18 11:52:17

But duh, I should have figured this out before. THAT’s why hedge funds are buying up these houses — for the guaranteed Section 8 rental stream.

If I were a landlord - which I will never be - I wouldn’t rent to section 8 tenants. I’m an unapologetic liberal and I believe that when people are given too much without working for it, they just don’t appreciate it or take care of it.

It’s one thing to help people out when they get stuck, but entire generations living off the dole for decades is not helping anyone.

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2013-04-18 12:37:06

SF now if we can get Ohbewanna pelloosie and sharptune behind you…think how much better America will be.

 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-04-18 13:29:07

If I were a landlord - which I will never be - I wouldn’t rent to section 8 tenants. I’m an unapologetic liberal and I believe that when people are given too much without working for it, they just don’t appreciate it or take care of it.

It’s one thing to help people out when they get stuck, but entire generations living off the dole for decades is not helping anyone.

Count me as a red-hot flamin’ liberal who agrees with the above.

 
 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2013-04-18 11:50:04

I just had an interesting thought. Regarding Carl’s question to me yesterday and pondering how an individual could fight against the government without resorting to violent action.

“Comment by Carl Morris

2013-04-17 14:39:19

Who says they supported the government? And realistically, what could they do about it?

As individuals, nothing. But does that shield them from the responsibility that as a group they were the only ones who could have stopped it from the inside?

And what are the implications of that for us? Those who try to prepare to take group action if necessary are reviled by those who say “realistically, what can *you* do about it”?”

It occurs to me that being a productive member of society supports the government. So one way to fight is to become an unproductive member and a drain on society. Perhaps we should be celebrating the patriotic Section 8 welfare queens.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 14:33:47

Interesting analysis :-).

I think just killing Hitler would have made more sense, but it is interesting to contemplate what would have happened if average Germans had just stopped being productive.

 
 
 
 
Comment by perkonkrusts
2013-04-18 06:36:45

I don’t know, I hear the whole program has improved. If a tenant does excessive damage, they’re no longer eligible for Section 8, so I think they treat properties better nowadays. No idea from personal experience, though.

The fascinating thing is the name list of potential tenants on gosection8.com. I think about 50% of the names in the Greenville, SC site never existed prior to being invented in the brains of the parents. Raveen, Jerina, Tavia, Kenyatta, Kadesha, Markita, Nylene, Kaylema, Malkia, Samela, Aqueelah, Natoysha, Lateema, Tunesia, Isnansa, Lilkia, Chanese, Jermillia, and Santa (I really hope Santa is Spanish, otherwise she has endured a lifetime of ho ho ho jokes). That’s just from the first few pages, it goes on forever.

Comment by oxide
2013-04-18 06:56:32

” lifetime of ho ho ho jokes”

There’s more than one entendre there.

 
Comment by joe the S Corp IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 07:34:31

There’s a potential sec. 8 tenant in Baltimore named “Tenette”.

I couldn’t make this up…

http://www.gosection8.com/Section-8-tenants-in-MD/Baltimore%20City/

Also, she’s approved up to $1500 for a 3 BR… hmmm… definitely a profitable price point. 3BR rowhomes can be found as cheaply as 30-40k in marginal (not great, not terrible) areas, as long as they “demographically dark”. I see this as a possibility for my S Corp IRA-stuffing future.

Comment by perkonkrusts
2013-04-18 07:55:15

Oh no you didn’t just start a gosection8.com old school name-off battle.

Yuschekia

Yeeeaahhh Boyyyyy, What?!?!

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Comment by ahansen
2013-04-18 10:29:04

When I worked for a medical malpractice insurance concern, we used to collect CA. doctors’ names. Some of my favorites included:

Kurt Pickus - Dermatology
Mark Feeley - OBGYN
George “You get ONE joke” Bonecutter - GP
Frank Smiley - maxillofacial surgery
Salman Gergle - GI surgery
William Peeke - OBGYN

And my all-time favorite,
Hakima Kadavar - Pathologist

All represented by one
George Butinsky - attorney

 
Comment by tresho
2013-04-18 10:38:15

There is a Dick Stifler DO, but he’s not a urologist.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2013-04-18 10:43:25

Hakima Kadavar - Pathologist

Too funny!

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 16:57:36

“Hakima Kadavar - Pathologist

Too funny!”

Too sad for Hakim’s family, though…

 
 
 
Comment by zee_in_phx
2013-04-18 14:30:52

crossed the lakes on either side lately - we are only 5.8% of the population and even had to boot strap our culture from the Europeans. most of those are derived names from beyond the borders and have been in usage for eons.

 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2013-04-18 05:48:08

It did not pass (yet) but just gives you a idea of what our loony brain trust do in Sacramento…Next will be to ban drinking alcohol…Then, ban any sexual activity outside of the master bedroom and only between the hours of 9:00-11:00 PM…;

http://cl.exct.net/?ju=fe4a13797d62037a741c&ls=fe1b1d777d6c017e741275&m=fefc1172766306&l=fed1157376640678&s=fe35157277640d7d711074&jb=ffcf14&t=

Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 06:40:43

would they have they right to enter your hope to enforce that law? Or depend on the neighbor narks?

Comment by scdave
2013-04-18 07:51:37

enforce that law ??

Really irrelevant if they can enforce it or not….The act of passing it is what is at issue…Whats next….

 
 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2013-04-18 11:25:28

Landlords routinely advertise no smoking in the Seattle area. Not the same as legislating it, but perhaps a reason for someone to buy.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 05:48:45

GHEI: Reinflating the housing bubble
Loosened borrowing rules set the stage for another bust
By Nita Ghei
Wednesday, April 10, 2013

There is evidently no idea bad enough and no failure severe enough to stop the government from trying it once again. In myopia remarkable even by abysmal government standards, the White House is pushing for policies that fueled the housing bubble, which burst a mere five years ago. Reintroducing those policies at this stage of a nascent recovery in the housing market will set the stage for repeating history, and very likely leave taxpayers on the hook once again for another bailout.

Last week, the administration began exerting pressure on banks to lend to people with lower credit scores, arguing that the gains from the current modest recovery are largely being captured by either investors or provident people with excellent credit scores, and that this strategy leaves out a pool of potential purchasers. The problem is, of course, that banks are in the business of making profits. Some bank surely would lend to these people if it made sense to do so. Under the current legal and economic circumstances, it does not, in fact, make any sense to make these loans. Far from fueling growth, distorting the market further will make economic recovery that much more difficult.

The main problems with the functioning of the housing market are the extensive intervention by government on the one hand and monetary policy that keeps interest rates at levels extraordinarily low by historical standards on the other. The housing market is further distorted by the existence of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which remain major players, and the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which generates a third of new loans, well above its pre-bust and even pre-bubble share.

The FHA’s role traditionally has been restricted to providing insurance for people with down payments as small as 3.5 percent of the purchase price, and credit scores too low to qualify for a mortgage without this federal insurance. The role changed with the bursting of the housing bubble and the Federal Reserve’s policy of loose money, which drove interest rates down far below historical levels. With mortgages at less than 5 percent, and often lower, the return to banks shrank. At these low interest rates, banks had little incentive to accept risk. Accordingly, they made their loans as low-risk as possible, limiting themselves to borrowers with significant down payments and stellar credit. The result was that new home purchases fell precipitously for people with respectable — but not perfect — credit.The FHA’s existence exacerbated the problems of the housing market. In theory the FHA — that is, the taxpayers — insure against the risk of default to encourage banks to make loans to people with less money to put down or with mediocre credit scores. Even FHA-insured loans saw borrowers’ average credit scores rise, following years of investigations into alleged wrongdoing by lenders, including a lawsuit filed last year against Wells Fargo, the nation’s largest mortgage lender. Banks quite rationally feared that they would be left holding the can if FHA-insured borrowers defaulted, and they reacted to the regulatory environment by declining to make higher-risk loans.

Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 06:44:53

angelo opened his arms to stated income buyers and made a bundle for himself.

Comment by rms
2013-04-18 21:46:15

“angelo opened his arms to stated income buyers and made a bundle for himself.”

+1 Working for gawd [is] rewarding.

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 05:55:03

I, myself, am a believer in bubble whacking.

The Buzz
All markets and investing news all the time
I lost $50,000 in Bitcoin crash, but I’m still a believer
By Hibah Yousuf
April 18, 2013: 6:43 AM ET

Simon Lang of Staffordshire, England, began investing in Bitcoins in 2011. Despite the recent price swings, Lang plans to hang onto his investment.

At the start of the year, Simon Lang was about $1,000 in the hole on his initial Bitcoin investment. But as the price of the digital currency ballooned to an all-time high of $266 last week, Lang found himself $60,000 richer.

But that didn’t last very long.

As Bitcoin prices tumbled to around $50 earlier this week, the value of his stake shrank to about $11,000.

“I was surprised at how fast the price went up,” said Lang, a 32-year old digital forensics manager in Staffordshire, England. “I was expecting it to fall a bit, but not as much as it has.”

Related: Bitcoin bubble may have burst

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 05:58:36

What really caused the 2013 bitcoin crash?

As everyone and their mother is aware of now, the price of bitcoins has fallen drastically, dragging the Winklevoss twins’ net worth down by over 20 million dirty dollars, destroying thousands of redditors’ “investments,” and crushing the hopes and dreams of FYGM libertarians everywhere. Since this obviously was not a speculative bubble and certainly didn’t pop because it was ridiculous, we’ll want to take a look at some of the forces that are actually at play here.

Comment by In Colorado
2013-04-18 08:49:35

As everyone and their mother is aware of now

I think that your average J6P has never even heard of “bitcoins”.

 
 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 05:59:25

Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!

“The deepest downturn since the Great Depression has interrupted a decades-long trend of jobs steadily moving to the suburbs and hollowing out urban business disctricts across the US, a study finds.

City centers gained a greater share of employment than their outer rings between 2007 and 2010, according to a report today from the Brookings Institution. It’s not all good news — big suburban job losses, not large downtown gains — drove the shift and metropolitan economies are more decentralized than they were in 2000.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-18/city-centers-in-u-s-gain-share-of-jobs-as-suburbs-lose.html

 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 06:04:15

Only “Agenda 21″ can save us:

“The level of carbon emitted in global energy supplies has barely changed in 20 years amid stalled efforts to curb pollution and increased coal use, the International Energy Agency said.

The findings lend urgency to government attempts to cut emissions and limit temperature gains to 2 degrees Celsius compared with industrial revolution levels.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-17/energy-as-dirty-as-20-years-ago-on-slow-climate-effort-iea-says.html

Comment by Bluestar
2013-04-18 09:03:12

Prediction:
During Obama’s 2nd. term he will approve the XL pipeline, boost LNG exports, cut the budget of the EPA and NOAA and back off pollution regulations. He will ‘fix’ our energy and environmental polices just like he ‘fixed’ our health care system and cleaned up Wall St..

How many times have we heard that Nat. Gas is a “game changer”? Lately every economic forecast has assumed that cheap gas would suppress energy costs and boost GDP but recent low Nat. Gas prices will turn out to be a mirage. In fact if gas goes over 6$ mcf it will start to create headwinds for the economy, especially the resurgent manufacturing and transportation sectors.

Global Warming Slowed Down While CO2 Emissions Rose
http://www.science20.com/science_20/global_warming_slowed_down_while_co2_emissions_rose_whats_rumpus-109558

Comment by Bluestar
2013-04-18 09:50:37

The Energy Department is poised to start making decisions on exporting more domestic natural gas within months, a top Obama administration official told Congress on Thursday.
The timetable — slightly faster than some analysts have predicted — comes as the Energy Department faces 20 applications to export some 26 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas to countries that do not have free-trade agreements with the United States.
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/04/18/energy-official-lng-export-decisions-coming-soon/

related story:
PSNC Energy has filed for an 8 percent residential rate increase for its natural gas, but the increase will be mostly offset by lower summer rates that go into effect May 1.
If approved by the N.C. Utilities Commission, PSNC would raise the gas-cost portion of its rates 8 percent. Because rates convert to a lower summer charge from May through October, typical residents would pay about $1 more a month in that period.
PSNC serves nearly 500,000 customers across its North Carolina service area, which includes Gaston, Iredell and Cabarrus counties and the Triangle area.
Piedmont Natural Gas, which serves most of Mecklenburg County, also filed this week for a fuel-related rate adjustment that would increase most residential bills by $3.50 to $4.75 a month in May. Utilities pass wholesale gas price changes to consumers without markup.

Also in the news:
Idaho Power on Monday submitted a proposal to raise customer rates by as much as 15.34 percent, on average, for the next year.
The price hike is largely the result of low rainfall and snowpack, which have lowered Idaho Power’s production of hydroelectricity — a comparatively cheap resource.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 10:09:27

While a commodity can drop below the full cost of production including sunk costs, it will not stay there for long. NG at $2 mcf was below its total production costs so it was just a matter of time before the lack of drilling caused its price to go up. The cure for higher prices is higher prices and I expect more NG drilling soon which will cap the price rise. Gold which was artificially forced down is like a beach ball sunk in water, it will pop for the same reason.

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Comment by Bluestar
2013-04-18 11:03:24

Someday we will discover the ‘miracle’ of fracking means high initial production rates that fall off faster than conventional vertical plays. I am telling you I am seeing it right here in the Barnett shale zone today. Wells less than three years old that have to be re-fracked because their flow rates collapsed.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 12:15:52

Exactly bluestar, I have said so more than once on this blog. Even in conventional plays horizontal drilling is more about producing oil quickly from a deposit than it is about producing more oil from the deposit. It does make some deposits attractive that would never be drilled so I will not say it has zero impact but it much less than most people think.

 
 
Comment by ICLEI
2013-04-18 15:09:55

UN Agenda 21/Sustainable Development is the action plan implemented worldwide to inventory and control all land, all water, all minerals, all plants, all animals, all construction, all means of production, all energy, all education, all information, and all human beings in the world. INVENTORY AND CONTROL.

http://www.democratsagainstunagenda21.com/ - 38k -

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Comment by Bluestar
2013-04-18 16:29:11

Testify brother, It’s already happening!!

Lawmakers leave global warming provision out of greenhouse gas permit bill
By Kelley Shannon
5:12 pm on April 18, 2013
A proposal to shift permitting for emissions of greenhouse gases from the federal Environmental Protection Agency to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality won preliminary approval in the House, but lawmakers agreed to leave out climate change and global warming language.

Lawmakers voted for the measure 119-23. There didn’t seem to be much opposition to moving the permitting responsibility to the TCEQ, which Rep. Wayne Smith, R-Baytown said could handle the duties much quicker than the federal government and make the process more efficient for businesses. The two government agencies have agreed that the permitting should move to the state.

But the bill also removed wording from state law that’s been in place since 1991 that says state officials should be allowed to control air contaminants if necessary to protect against the adverse effects of “climatic changes, including global warming.”
A proposed amendment by Rep. Chris Turner, D-Arlington, to restore that wording generated intense support from Democrats but failed on a 50-91 vote.

Speaker Joe Straus tried during the debate to hold only a voice vote on the global warming amendment and on tentative passage of the bill. That would make it impossible for the public to know in an upcoming election how a particular lawmaker stood on the proposal, at least in this round of debate.

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/04/lawmakers-leave-global-warming-provision-out-of-greenhouse-gas-permit-bill.html/

PS: TECQ is the same department responsible for air quality and safety at some obscure fertilizer plant in West, Texas…

“Texas Investigated West Fertilizer Plant in 2006″
Records show that the TCEQ has visited the plant several times since issuing the permit but noted no concerns about the company. There have not been any recorded complaints about the company since 2006.
http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2013/04/18/texas-investigated-west-fertilizer-plant-in-2006/

 
 
 
Comment by tresho
2013-04-18 10:42:33

How many times have we heard that Nat. Gas is a “game changer”?
My bill for natural gas to heat my house was skyrocketing up until fracking started, then it fell drastically. Identifying a “game changer” is best done after the game is over, and it’s not over yet. Natural gas filling stations for motor vehicles are being constructed in many places. Trucking companies are buying new semi tractors that will run on it.

Comment by Bluestar
2013-04-18 12:39:44

Remember the vast herds of the American Bison and giant flocks of Passenger Pigeons? Wiped out in just a few decades by uncontrolled harvesting. It’s not you, it’s just who we are as humans.

The natural gas boom is a good example of a non renewable national resource squandered by short sighted get rich quick schemes. It took 35 million years to accumulate the gas we are going to use up in 10-20 years. Does this sound like a good ‘conservative’ plan?

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Comment by joe the IRA stuffer
2013-04-18 15:26:21

Exactly, bluestar. Conservative use of natural resources is the definition of conservative. Today’s GOP “drill baby drill” narrative is short sighted stupidity and corporate hucksterism.

 
Comment by ahansen
2013-04-19 00:22:18

Conservatives aren’t.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:07:47

Morgan Stanley earnings worry investors
By Maureen Farrell
@CNNMoneyInvest April 18, 2013: 8:40 AM ET
Shares of Morgan Stanley are up 12% in 2013.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Investors were disappointed by Morgan Stanley’s first-quarter results, even though the bank beat expectations.

Shares fell more than 1% in premarket trading.

Morgan Stanley earned $1.2 billion, or 61 cents per share, on $8.5 billion in net revenues.

Revenues and profits at the bank dipped from last year, but the bank has been in the process of slimming down and right-sizing itself since the financial crisis.

Related: Bank of America disappoints investors

CEO James Gorman said that the bank “demonstrated solid momentum,” noting Morgan’s global wealth management division generated the highest pre-tax profit ($597 million) in the bank’s history.

The bank’s focus on wealth management is the clearest sign of a new era at Morgan Stanley, one that is less focused on trading and other risky moves that nearly felled the bank during the financial crisis.

Analysts worry that Morgan Stanley is losing in its more traditional business of investment banking and trading. The bank trailed its peers this quarter.

Trading revenue overall fell 32% from the previous year with debt trading falling sharply.

Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 07:32:12

does anyone feel sad for the sheep who bought aapl at 700? Cramer said it was going to 1000?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 08:15:25

But it is interesting how few talk about the collapse in Apple compared to the fall in gold. Apple falling by a much greater percentage is talked about like it is only a correction while gold is talked about like the bursting of a bubble. It is clear that the PTB want you to be in stocks instead of gold. The PTB include Buffett who benefits from the system and his access to political figures. How much is he making because the Bakken crude is being transported by rail and not by pipelines and how much will he make due to the delay in XL pipeline?

Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 10:58:50

thats true mr dan. I’m a little sick of buffets welfare game myself.

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Comment by Happy2bHeard
2013-04-18 11:29:54

A contrarian could do well listening to Cramer. If he says sell, wait a day and then buy. If he says buy, sell into the mania.

Comment by Northeastener
2013-04-18 12:12:55

This. Cramer is a shill for Wall St. Never forget he was pimping Lehman Brothers as a tremendous buy the day before it collapsed…

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Comment by Happy2bHeard
2013-04-18 14:18:32

Even if he wasn’t a shill, he has a large audience.

 
 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 14:40:26

A contrarian could do well listening to Cramer.

I think if people would just keep in mind that Cramer is a trader at heart and his advice only makes sense for today it would be OK and he wouldn’t seem like such a liar. He says things all the time that he knows are horrible ideas long term, but usually do make sense if you only think of them as something you’re going to hold for hours or maybe days. It took me a while to wrap my head around because my nature is to be offended by someone recommending something that is obviously a horrible long term investment. The long term doesn’t even seem to occur to him or interest him at all. The trader mindset is foreign to me.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:12:47

April 18, 2013, 7:02 a.m. EDT
Why Buffet thinks investing in gold is stupid
By Jeff Reeves

Perhaps my favorite take on gold investing comes from Warren Buffett, the iconic investor behind Berkshire Hathaway. Delivered at Harvard in 1998, it goes a little something like this:

(Gold) gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.

The idea is simple: There is no use for gold, only some arbitrary “value” we place on it. Sure, gold was historically used as currency — but why not Cowry shells, which were one of the earliest forms of currency in China? Just because it’s rare and some people value it doesn’t mean that gold is an “investment,” especially to someone like Warren Buffett who is concerned with statistics like book value and cash flow.

More recently, in 2009, he echoed these thoughts in a CNBC interview. He was asked, “Where do you think gold will be in five years and should that be a part of value investing?”

I have no views as to where it will be, but the one thing I can tell you is it won’t do anything between now and then except look at you. Whereas, you know, Coca-Cola (KO) will be making money, and I think Wells Fargo (WFC) will be making a lot of money, and there will be a lot — and it’s a lot — it’s a lot better to have a goose that keeps laying eggs than a goose that just sits there and eats insurance and storage and a few things like that.

For the record, gold was around $900 then, and has tacked on about 45%; Coke stock is up 100% and Wells Fargo is up 200%. That doesn’t include dividends, or subtract the cost of ownership that Buffett points to.

Another great line from Warren Buffett about gold came in October 2010, when he told Ben Stein:

You could take all the gold that’s ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what it’s worth at current gold prices, you could buy — not some — all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils (XOM), plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?

Gold is right back to where it was in late 2010 when that interview aired, at around $1,350 an ounce.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 07:55:51

So unlike a lot of stocks and a lot of real estate it has preserved wealth, which is its role?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 09:41:18

The price you pay determines your rate of loss.

This is what Uncle Warren’s perjorative remarks about gold seem to miss. You could overpay for “productive” stocks and lose even more money than by paying a fair price for “unproductive” gold.

Look at today’s market action for an example: If gold is “unproductive,” then why is gold up when stocks are dropping (again!)?

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:14:29

Would this be a good time to dump your gold and get into some highly profitable real estate investments?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:16:26

As gold hits the dirt, real estate glitters for investors
April 17, 2013, 1:37 PM

Gold has been hit by a brick, but the polls saw it coming.

In August 2011, with gold at a peak, Gallup Inc. asked investors where they’d want to keep money long-term. Gold (GCM3 +0.47%) was the best investment for 34% of those queried.

The yellow metal gleamed brighter than stocks, bonds and real estate. A year ago, gold’s dominance had slipped, with 28% of those surveyed putting gold ahead of more traditional assets.

Nowadays, gold glitters for 24% of the respondents in a Gallup poll of 1,005 adults taken between April 4 and April 7 – before gold’s recent plunge.

Real estate essentially ties gold for the best investment currently, at 25% to 24%, respectively. In August 2011, 19% of those surveyed listed real estate as their top choice.

Stocks also are more popular, with about 22% saying the market is the best long-term place for their investment dollars. In August 2011, 17% had that view.

Stocks have been booming and real estate has been recovering in recent months, likely contributing to the decline in gold’s perceived investment status,” Gallup researchers noted in a prepared statement released late Tuesday.

Comment by Al
2013-04-18 07:04:39

I much as I had to admit it, I’m still a believer in diversification. When all markets are manipulated, about the only option is to have a bit of all of them and hope that the PTB doesn’t manage to crash everything simultaneously.

 
 
Comment by Salinasron
2013-04-18 06:23:39

I don’t recall see postings from Bill LA lately. It would be interesting to hear his take on gold at this moment. Not for purposes of making fun of his investment strag because at least he has a plan for his future and is willing to put it into action.

Comment by it's hard out here for a pimp
2013-04-18 06:26:49

He was on couple of days ago. IIRC he said he would start buying again at 1200 level.

Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 07:33:36

hes counting his losses?

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-04-18 08:00:37

Actually that was my number. He was just following his usual strategy of buying a set amount of gold at a set time. A good strategy to average out a price. With the physical demand that has developed due to the engineered fall, I think there are some very nervous people among what a CBIT article called dumb money i.e. the people that shorted gold driving it down and now must cover sometime in the future.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 10:59:38

Looks like a great article; will need to read carefully later today.

My spouse commenting on the gap between share prices and economic conditions is yet another shoe-shine boy moment.

Fed and Bank of Japan caused gold crash
Commodity prices have been falling since September, culminating in a rout over the past two weeks. That is a classic warning for the global economy.
Traditionally shaped pure raw gold bars stacked in a secure bullion room safe
The upward trend of the great bull market has been broken. The technical damage is brutal. Bank of America expects a further drop to $1,200. Be patient Photo: Alamy
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
7:22PM BST 17 Apr 2013

It is becoming ever clearer that the roaring boom in global equities since last summer has priced in an economic recovery that does not in fact exist. The International Monetary Fund has had to nurse down its global growth forecasts yet again. We are still stuck in an old-fashioned trade depression, with pervasive over-capacity in manufacturing plant and a record global savings rate of 25pc of GDP.

German car sales fell 17pc in March. That should puncture the last illusions that Germany is about to pull Europe out of a self-inflicted slump.

As you can see from the chart below, the divergence between stock markets and the Deutsche Bank index of raw materials is astonishing to behold, so like the pattern in early 1929.

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2013-04-18 21:03:03

I posted at the bottom - too late for most HBBers to notice that most of the silver bullion at the LA coin shop I go to - all sold out. I was wanting to buy packs of 20. So I’m sticking to gold for now. Might buy a platinum Maple leaf or Koala - but all Platinum eagles in all sizes are sold out.

 
 
 
Comment by joe the IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 07:11:01

To be clear, his plan involves “ignoring” the police state/government while working on a government contract using his government-issued security clearance. You see, he will program missiles but pay no mind to what the government does with them or any other militaristic activities done with our tax money. That’s “ignoring”.

Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 08:20:16

hate the game, not the players yo

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Comment by In Colorado
2013-04-18 08:45:21

while working on a government contract using his government-issued security clearance

Aren’t those people known as “collaborators”?

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Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2013-04-18 21:05:06

So my method of voting libertarian or just not voting at all, and to reduce my taxes as much as possible is worse than your method, which is to vote for the Stalinists who happen to keep the money flowing into my pocket. The war making stalinist Obama. He’s great for defense work.

You turds are so funny.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 21:10:32

LOL. I’m with ya…. but LOL.

 
 
 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2013-04-18 21:00:37

I’m here. I just am not on much during the day when I work.

Still buying gold. My next purchase is the first week of May. five or six of the quarter ounce American eagle golds.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:32:45

The best time to dump your gold was a couple of weeks ago, before rumors that Cyprus has plans in motion for a really big gold dump to pay off its creditors started to circulate. Hopefully for the Cypriot authorities, they had the foresight to hedge before announcing their plan.

Cyprus Finance Minister Sees Gold Sale Within Next Months
By Natalie Weeks & Tom Stoukas - Apr 17, 2013 12:40 AM PT

The Cypriot government plans to sell part of its gold reserves within the next months, a decision that needs to be approved by the country’s central bank, Finance Minister Haris Georgiades said.

“The exact details of it will be formulated in due course primarily by the board of the central bank,” Georgiades, 41, told Bloomberg TV’s Ryan Chilcote in an interview in Nicosia. “Obviously it’s a big decision.”

Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades is trying to unlock 10 billion euros ($13.2 billion) of loans from the euro area and the International Monetary Fund. To do so, he must come up with a further 11 billion euros through measures including a tax on bank deposits of more than 100,000 euros at the country’s two biggest banks, the sale of assets and gold and other tax measures.

An April 9 debt assessment by the European Commission said Cyprus had committed to selling about 400 million euros of “excess” gold reserves, prompting gold futures to fall the most in five months. In response to the disclosure, the Central Bank of Cyprus said it wasn’t considering a sale.

Central bank chief Panicos Demetriades said last week that the Cypriot government didn’t have the right to sell gold without his consent. He also signalled the administration hadn’t involved him in the plan. The Cypriot central bank manages the country’s gold stock, which amounts to 13.9 metric tons, according to the World Gold Council.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 09:37:46

How Goldman saw the gold crash coming that others missed
April 18, 2013, 9:16 AM
Goldman Sachs
Jeffrey Currie

It could turn out to be the forecast of the year.

Goldman Sachs last week cut its gold-price view two days ahead of the start of the biggest decline for the commodity in three decades. So how did the investment bank manage to foresee a rout that others, including hedge-fund billionaire John Paulson, missed?

You had a whole group of observations that should have created a substantial rally in gold prices, but they didn’t,” Jeffrey Currie, the head of Goldman’s global commodities research team told Bloomberg in an interview a day prior. “The fact that gold did not rally on Cyprus amid the bad U.S. data that occurred in that time period created the conviction we needed.

The week after Cyprus announced a levy on bank deposits that shocked the investment world, gold rose 0.3%. On April 10, Goldman cut its 2013 forecats to $1,545 an ounce from $1,610 and its 2014 forecasts to $1,350 from $1,490. In February, Goldman slashed its 2013 forecast to $1,550. Goldman made a further move on Tuesday, in the wake of the huge gold slump, to cut its short-term gold call to $1,400, and said it likes natural gas as a better safe haven.

On its heels, Morgan Stanley cut its 2013 view to $1,487. Bank of America Merrill Lynch dropped its 2014 target to $1,838, and sees a medium term target of $1,200, but believes jewelry demand will step up and provide support, helping gold finish at $1,670 this year. (Read: Consumers stay loyal to gold as investors flee). Credit Agricole joined the crowd on Thursday with a end-year 2013 forecast of $1,350, citing a firmer dollar as a key culprit.

 
Comment by cactus
2013-04-18 10:05:52

I bought some PAAS yesterday a silver miner who knows my looses could be massive ?

I bet you’re happy with your Treasuries right now.

I still see this as the yearly spring sell off which means little over the course of a year or two.

I expect RE to slow way down though and stall out. Especally since rents are stalled and may even fall. So maybe investors will stop buying?

If Blackstone keeps buying RE even with flat rents and no appreciation somthing werid is going on

Comment by cactus
2013-04-18 10:08:02

looses ha I meant looooooses

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 14:42:35

I bought some PAAS yesterday

Don’t they make the easter egg coloring kits?

 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 06:17:43

hope and change

‘the greek economy is in free-fall, having shrunk by 20 percent in the past five years. unemployment is more than 27 percent, the highest in europe, and 6 of 10 jobseekers say they have not worked in more than a year. those dry statistics are reshaping the lives of greek families with children, more of whom are arriving at schools hungry or underfed, even malnourished, according to private groups and the government itself.’

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/18/world/europe/more-children-in-greece-start-to-go-hungry.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Comment by MacBeth
2013-04-18 07:09:37

Socialism is great until you run out of other people’s money.

Comment by Happy2bHeard
2013-04-18 11:59:42

A simplistic explanation that fails to address the root problems.

The US was socialist before the Great Depression?

 
 
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2013-04-18 13:08:26

So, you somehow connect the dots between the Greek economy, and a slogan that was associated President Barack Obama during his first campaign? You do realize that he was elected twice, right?

Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 15:52:19

There is no association. That’s what makes it FUN!

We could have put “Mission Accomplished” as the intro, because as far as the 0.1% are concerned, starving kidz is mission accomplished.

Forward

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:18:42

Is it safe to say that using a centrally-planned credit-driven investment strategy naturally leads to the misallocation of capital, unproductive investments and loan losses at government-owned banks?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:21:05

April 18, 2013, 12:02 a.m. EDT
China is repeating Japan’s economic mistakes
Commentary: Wasteful investment and spending stunts growth
By Satyajit Das
Reuters
A man reacts to stock prices at a brokerage in Shanghai.

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Despite a history of conflict and competition, China and Japan share development models. But if it is not careful, China may also share Japan’s economic fate.

Both Japan’s postwar economic recovery and China’s recent growth were based on exports and low-cost labor. Undervalued currencies gave exporters a competitive advantage, and exports were promoted at the expense of household income and consumption.
Click to Play
China set to reopen IPO floodgates

Chinese authorities could be about to start approving initial public offerings again, after a six-month hiatus. Steve Wang of Reorient Financial Markets tells the WSJ’s Deborah Kan his biggest concerns about reopening the IPO floodgates.

In addition, China and Japan both encouraged high domestic savings rates, which was used to finance investment. Both countries generated large trade surpluses they invested overseas, primarily in U.S. government securities, to avoid upward pressure on their currencies and to help finance purchases of their exports. Both also used high levels of investment financed domestically to drive economic growth.

For Japan, the music stopped in September 1985 when the Plaza Accord forced the yen USDJPY +0.11% to appreciate, reducing Japanese exports and economic growth.

In order to restore growth, Japan’s policymakers then engineered a credit-driven investment boom to offset the effects of a stronger yen, driving a bubble in asset prices that ultimately collapsed. Government spending and low-interest rates have since been used to avoid a collapse in economic activity, only worsening the imbalances.

Japan has been left with large budget deficits, very high levels of government debt, and enlargement of the central bank balance sheet, in part to finance the government and support financial asset prices.Read more: As Japan goes, so goes the world.
Banking crisis in the making

Until 1990, Japan was highly successful — growing strongly with only brief interruptions. Since 1990, after the bubble economy burst, Japan has been mired in almost two decades of uninterrupted stagnation.

China’s resistance to a sudden revaluation of the renminbi is rooted in avoiding the Japanese experience.

Yet China’s response to the global financial crisis, which triggered a sharp decline in Chinese exports and slowdown in economic activity, is akin to that of Japan following the Plaza Accord.

Instead of government spending, China has sought to drive growth by a rapid expansion of credit from the state-owned banking system, which has driven an investment boom.

And like Japan before it, China’s banking system is vulnerable. Rather than budget deficits, China has used directed bank lending to specially targeted projects to maintain high levels of growth.

China’s reliance on overvalued assets as collateral, and infrastructure projects with insufficient cash flows to service the debt means that many loans will not be repaid. These bad loans may trigger a banking crisis or absorb a significant portion of Chinese large pool of savings and income reducing the economy’s growth potential.

Moreover, at the onset of its crisis, Japan was a much richer country than China, and so had a significant advantage in dealing with the slowdown. Japan also possessed a good education system, strong innovation and technology, and a stoic work ethic that helped it adjust. Japan’s world-class manufacturing skills and significant intellectual property in electronics and heavy industry also gave it an edge.

In contrast, China relies on cheap labor, to assemble or manufacture products for export using imported materials. A labor shortage and rising wages is reducing competitiveness. China’s attempts at innovation and high-technology manufacturing are still nascent.

Chinese authorities admit that the credit-driven investment strategy has led to the misallocation of capital, unproductive investments and loan losses at government-owned banks.

Comment by In Colorado
2013-04-18 07:48:58

Is there any economy in the world that isn’t fubar’d?

Comment by joe the S Corp IRA-stuffing private contractor representing goon
2013-04-18 09:36:20

Nordic countries. Oh wait, they’re socialist (evil).

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 12:06:03

Oh wait, the housing bubble contagion infected Nordic countries, too.

Housing prices may finally be settling down
April 3, 2013

The high price of housing in Norway may have peaked, at least for now. Real estate brokers report fewer prospective buyers at open house showings, and sales figures for March were mostly flat after months and years of strong increases.

Average prices for single family homes were up just 0.3 percent, reported the real estate brokers’ national organization EFF, while average prices for multi-family homes (apartments and duplexes or townhouses) were unchanged. That yielded a total price increase of 0.1 percent from February to March.

The stability follows a 4 percent price rise in January, and the March figures were still 7 percent ahead of March 2012. But demand seems to be tapering off, after square meter prices hit record levels and often run as much as NOK 60,000 in Oslo and other Norwegian cities.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:25:37

Still missing the advantage of allowing too-big-to-fail megabanks to perpetually aim a loaded bazooka at sovereign state taxpayers’ heads. Why not just push out the Sherman Antitrust Act to the international treaty playing field and end too-big-to-fail once and for all?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:26:39

Op/Ed
4/18/2013 @ 8:00AM
The Cyprus ‘Bail-In’ Exposes ‘Too Big To Fail’ As All Too Timid
People queuing at a branch of the Cyprus Popular Bank, Laiki, in the Cypriot capital, Nicosia, on March 28, 2013. (Image credit: AFP/Getty Images via @daylife)
By Louise Bennetts

The Cyprus bank ‘bailout’ drama contains one major positive for U.S. observers: finally someone has found the courage to execute a credible solution to large bank failure that is not backstopped by taxpayers.

It also contains a warning: uncoordinated ad hoc measures don’t work well in a crisis. This should serve as a call to action for creating a workable bankruptcy procedure for U.S. megabanks.

The ‘bail-in’ model used to address the insolvency of Cyprus’s two largest banks has its roots in the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s megabank recapitalization proposal. Importantly, this is the first time that the model has been used where the banks in question are ‘too big to fail’ in their local economy. And, as it turns out, banks aren’t too big to fail, and ‘bail-in’ works rather well to limit the systemic effects of a bank failure, all the while shielding taxpayers. It is also a warning to creditors: be more vigilant about the institutions you do business with.

Admittedly, Cyprus is not the ideal poster child for bail-in as a crisis management tool. For one thing, the FDIC model doesn’t quite work in Cyprus because Cypriot banks have hardly any bondholders, leaving uninsured depositors to absorb the blow. For another, the promised $10 billion capital injection from the EU and IMF is likely to be perceived as a bailout even though the banks receive only temporary liquidity.

But what really let Cyprus down was poor planning and communication. The European bail-in proposal was floated over a year ago and analysts waited anxiously for European authorities to release detailed rules about how it would work. The rules never came, adding to the general chaos and confusion when the time arrived to apply them.

 
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2013-04-18 13:06:00

Because any enforcement (or growth) of the Sherman Antitrust Act would interfere with the ever-increasing profits and power enjoyed by today’s corporate elite.

 
 
Comment by inchbyinch
2013-04-18 06:32:36

Combo nailed the buy vs. rent scenario.
It’s on the individual basis.

Whac-A-Bubble
I watched Thousand Oaks, Ca (1/2 hr north of L A County in Ventura County) get flooded w/ section 8 people (mostly illegals) and the town took a turn for the worse. Section 8 has a place, but rescuing bad buying decisions on rental property isn’t one.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 06:37:31

What did you pay for your Depreciating-Debt-Dump?

Comment by Mo Money
2013-04-18 10:15:02

“What did you pay for your Depreciating-Debt-Dump?”

How much of my mortgage are you paying sucker ?

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 10:19:00

Why buy when you can rent for half the monthly cost?

Why buy when you can build new for less than the cost of a resale house?

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Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 06:44:28

a turn for the worse, that’s kinda racis. after all, the coastal elitist cultural relativists told us ‘our differences only make us stronger’.

better slap a coexist sticker on that and keep your racis beliefs to yourself.

Comment by MacBeth
2013-04-18 07:07:00

And I was told that if everyone was “light brown”, it’d be a good thing.

Go figure.

I guess that diversity is a good thing in that it supports hedonism, but bad for skin color. I guess. Well, at least I guess.

And so it goes.

Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 08:57:14

Maybe when we’re all light brown it will finally sink in that most of what we call racism has nothing to do with skin color and everything to do with social norms and normal human fear of those who actively reject yours.

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Comment by Pete
2013-04-18 14:27:44

“it will finally sink in that most of what we call racism has nothing to do with skin color and everything to do…..”

I’d change “nothing” to ‘very little’, but I think you’re spot on.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 14:44:40

I tried to cover that with the word “most”. Yes, there are some real racists out there who care about skin color. I don’t think there are that many, though. There are a ton of people who take sides over social norms.

 
Comment by Pete
2013-04-18 16:00:06

“I tried to cover that with the word “most”.”

So you did!

 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:49:02

Funny you should mention flooding and Section 8.

I used to live in an apartment building with a mixture of Section 8 and non-Section 8 tenants. My Section 8 neighbor upstairs left the water running in the bathtub unattended, filling it to overflowing and then some. I returned from a week-long vacation to find the ceiling in my bathroom sagging like a water balloon. Before I had time to remedy the situation, the ceiling collapsed, flooding the beautiful old hardwood floors in the apartment. The subsequent repair left gaping scars in the wood where they drained the water.

The whole experience left a bad taste in my mouth for the perils of living near Section 8 neighbors.

Comment by polly
2013-04-18 11:35:46

And I have had no less than 4 water problems in the buildings I have lived in. One was the upstairs neighbor leaving the kitchen sink running while on vaction (at least for a weekend) and the water running down the inside of the wall and ballooning out the paint above my sink. The guy from my building thanked me for reporting it because it would have been even more of a mess if they hadn’t found it until later.

One was a busted pipe 10 floors above my apartment. That one caused the floor in front of the door to warp so badly I had to use a screwdriver to pull out the parquet tiles to get the door opened. One was a broken pipe connection right behind the wall of the kitchen cabinet under the sink - flooded the cabinet. One was a broken kitchen sprayer/hose assembly - also flooded the cabinet.

I have friends who own a condo they rent out and their place was flooded to the tune of needing thousands of dollars of repairs. The flood was caused by an owner of a different unit.

None of these problems had anything to do with section 8 neighbors.

How are problems with water in an apartment connected in any way to section 8? Or are you just indulging yourself in a logical fallacy for no particular reason?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 12:15:16

“How are problems with water in an apartment connected in any way to section 8?”

I had the feeling they were running a brothel upstairs, which may have distracted the woman who ran the tub water from shutting it off at the appropriate moment.

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Comment by polly
2013-04-18 13:35:57

Any brothel worth the name will create a heck of a lot more income for the proprietors than would allow them to continue to qualify for the vouchers. So maybe your problem is with people who dobn’t qualify for section 8 and yet use the vouchers illegally. Or people who run illegal businesses out of residential apartments. Or who run businesses in areas that aren’t zoned commercial at all.

Seriously. What does section 8 have to do with it?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 15:23:11

“Any brothel worth the name will create a heck of a lot more income for the proprietors than would allow them to continue to qualify for the vouchers.”

I think you are missing the potential advantage of incorporating Section 8 rental subsidies into a brothel business model. Rent is a cost of doing business, and reducing costs is a good way to increase profits.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 15:24:19

And you are also assuming the “business” would have been above board; but then they wouldn’t have qualified for Section 8, would they? And besides, it would have been illegal (I have never lived in Nevada…).

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 20:47:14

Tenant Troubles: My Building Has Turned Into A Den Of Crime
Housing Authority Tenants Union
by Dave Crow | April 3, 2013 10:09 am | in Business

I have lived in the same building for 5 years. It was built in 1913, has 64 units, and is a tax credit building. I am 38 years old, and am on Section 8. In the middle of last year the management rented an apartment through the Veterans Administration to a man who turned out to be a drug dealer. Drug addicts, dealers, and prostitutes started coming into the building. The man was evicted but the people found others in the building to let them in.

These people use the hallways as toilets, have sex in the hallways, sleep in the stairways, and regularly break into the building by both kicking in the front door and climbing up the fire escapes. The manager has done everything he can but the management company and the buildings owner refuses to hire full-time security even though the residents demand it.

People have tried to break into my apartment. In January our maintenance man, who lives in the building, was assaulted. Our building has been cited by the police department. Is this enough to ask the landlord to pay for me to move (which is extremely hard being on Section 8)? Or what can I do to try to get this terrible situation dealt with?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 20:55:52

Polly, I agree one should not generalize from individual experience to entire groups or government programs which support them.

So here is a bit broader perspective on Section 8 tenants and crime. And I am 100% certain there is plenty more supporting evidence that Section 8 brings higher crime rates to the areas to which it lures new residents, and that this is merely the tip of the ice berg.

OPINION
August 17, 2011, 7:34 p.m. ET

Raising Hell in Subsidized Housing

Section 8 rental subsidies have long helped ruin neighborhoods. Obama administration policies are making things worse.
By JAMES BOVARD

Section 8 rental subsidies have long been one of the most controversial federal social programs. The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) under the Obama administration is making a troubled program worse.

In the 1990s, the feds were embarrassed by skyrocketing crime rates in public housing—up to 10 times the national average, according to HUD studies and many newspaper reports. The government’s response was to hand out vouchers to residents of the projects (authorized under Section 8 of the Housing and Community Development Act of 1974), dispersing them to safer and more upscale locales.

Section 8’s budget soared to $19 billion this year from $7 billion in 1994. HUD now picks up the rent for more than two million households nationwide; tenants pay 30% of their income toward rent and utilities while the feds pay the rest. Section 8 recipients receive monthly rental subsidies of up to $2,851 in the Stamford-Norwalk, Conn., area, $2,764 in Honolulu and $2,582 in Columbia, Md.

But the dispersal of public housing residents to quieter neighborhoods has failed to weed out the criminal element that made life miserable for most residents of the projects. “Homicide was simply moved to a new location, not eliminated,” concluded University of Louisville criminologist Geetha Suresh in a 2009 article in Homicide Studies. In Louisville, Memphis, and other cities, violent crime skyrocketed in neighborhoods where Section 8 recipients resettled.

After a four-year investigation, the Indianapolis Housing Authority (IHA) in 2006 linked 80% of criminal homicides in Marion County, Ind., to individuals fraudulently obtaining federal assistance “in either the public housing program or the Section 8 program administered by the agency.” The IHA released an update last month citing recent crackdowns on a “nationwide criminal motorcycle gang operating out of a Section 8 home.” It also noted one “attorney who allegedly operated a law practice from a Section 8 home for eight years, providing shelter to unauthorized occupants who were linked to 10 homicides, 431 police calls and 394 criminal arrests during that time period.”

Dubuque, Iowa, is struggling with an influx of Section 8 recipients from Chicago housing projects. Section 8 concentrations account for 11 of 13 local violent crime hot spots, according to a study by the Northern Illinois University Center for Governmental Studies. Though Section 8 residents account for only 5% of the local population, a 2010 report released by the city government found that more than 20% of arrestees resided at Section 8 addresses.

Dubuque’s city government responded by trimming the size of the local Section 8 program. HUD retaliated by launching a “civil rights compliance review” of the program (final results pending).

HUD seems far more enthusiastic about cracking down on localities than on troublesome Section 8 recipients who make life miserable for the rest of the community. And because Section 8 recipients in some areas are mostly black or Latino, almost any enforcement effort can be denounced as discriminatory.

HUD launched an investigation of the Cincinnati Metropolitan Housing Authority in 2009 after an Ohio attorney accused the authority of racially discriminatory Section 8 policies such as “eviction for offenses such as loud music.” In June of this year, the authority signed a conciliation agreement with HUD, pledging to cease penalizing Section 8 recipients for nuisance offenses. Policing tenant behavior was the job of police and landlords but “an ineffective use of resources” by the housing authority that “could lead to inappropriate program terminations,” HUD spokeswoman Laura Feldman told the Cincinnati Enquirer.

After the city of Antioch, Calif., formed a Community Action Team to assist the Contra Costa County Housing Authority in curbing violence and other problems in subsidized housing, the Bay Area Legal Aid sued the local police department in 2008, claiming it was guilty of racial discrimination because of an allegedly “concerted and unlawful campaign to seek evidence which could lead to the termination of participants’ Section 8 voucher benefits.” (The case is ongoing.)

Nevertheless, middle-class blacks are the program’s least inhibited critics. Sheldon Carter of Antelope Valley, Calif., testified at a recent public hearing on local Section 8 controversies: “This is not a racial issue. It is a color issue. The color is green and it’s my dollars.” Shirlee Bolds told Iowa’s Dubuque Telegraph Herald in 2009: “I moved away from the city to get away from all this crap. Dubuque’s getting rough. I think it’s turning into a little Chicago, like they’re bringing the street rep here.

Remarkably, HUD seems bent on creating a new civil right—the right to raise hell in subsidized housing in nice neighborhoods.

 
Comment by ahansen
2013-04-19 00:38:58

“…Seriously. What does section 8 have to do with it?”

Irresponsible, drug-addled people tend to be poor?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 06:59:17

Sequester could push some renters out of Section 8 housing
Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

Sequestration has left housing authorities with a stark choice: Raise rents, or eliminate some Section 8 vouchers altogether.

by Rowan Moore Gerety
Marketplace Morning Report for Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Of all the programs in the federal budget, Section 8 housing doesn’t have much fat to cut. The program provides rent vouchers to families earning an average of less than $13,000 a year. But sequestration has left housing authorities with a stark choice: Eliminate some vouchers altogether, or ask people to contribute more.

In the lobby of the Los Angeles City Housing Authority, Chanel Henderson waits with her two year old daughter, Heaven, sitting on her lap. Henderson tells me she has never heard of the sequester. But as a result of sequestration, she may soon see her rent rise by as much as $200 a month.

“That’s a lot for people who are already struggling,” Henderson says.

Henderson is a single mother and a full-time nursing student. Her main source of income is a monthly welfare check. She says a $200 rent increase may be too much.

“With my income now, I already don’t have enough left over at the end, after paying rent and bills.”

Up to 24,000 Los Angeles families — half the people in Section 8 — will see a rent increase before the end of this year. But according to Doug Guthrie, President and CEO of the city’s Housing Authority, that may be the best available option.

“Although we’re impacting a large part of the population, what we don’t want to do is actually have to take people off the program entirely,” Guthrie says.

Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 07:48:41

“Chanel”, mother of “Heaven”?

Did this make anyone else think of the chapter of Freakonomics about baby names?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2013-04-18 08:58:55

Up to 24,000 Los Angeles families — half the people in Section 8 — will see a rent increase before the end of this year.

So, in all of the great city of Los Angeles there are only 48,000 families living in Section 8 housing? I was under the impression that number would be at least half of all households, given the rhetoric we heard last election.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 07:02:06

Gold up, stocks down today…what a difference a few days can make!!!

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 07:03:07

Marketwatch dot com
10:00a
Philly Fed index falls to 1.3 in April from 2.0

Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 07:09:02

is that bullish?

Comment by it's hard out here for a pimp
2013-04-18 10:24:45

Everything is bullish for housing and stocks. You should have known by that now.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-04-18 07:06:17

“Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be much less tomorrow for many years to come.”

Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 07:14:31

Bu… bu…but what if you want your house and don’t want “what you can get for” your house…?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-04-18 07:16:57

It’s quite simple my dear Debt-Junkie. Your losses will grow.

Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:10:07

Bu Bu buuuut…. what If I don’t care that my losses grow? What if I’m happy. Does that violate the Schadenfreude demanded in the Echo Chamber? Or, what if I owned a house I bought before Da Bubble? Or what if I rent but can see more than one side to complex issues? Is it a bad thing that I’m not Pimpy or I-woggy, holding breath and turning blue because not every last person on earth is unhappy paying mortgage and taxes instead of rent?

Weird thing about an Echo Chamber… it tends to be painted black and white, rather than gray.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 19:27:54

Oh gee….. You’re Happy!!!!!!

And the knitting club? How goes it?

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 20:06:01

Many exclamation points. Sign of weak intellect.

 
Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 20:09:39

!!!!And Let’s Not Forget Phoenix!!!

Phoenix Rental Rates Heading Down Down Down

Why pay an inflated price for a depreciating house in Phoenix when you can rent it for increasingly less money?

http://picpaste.com/pics/d89f9a1b2d5b6b74e518b5c9b7516f98.1366210461.png

Cool :mrgreen:

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 21:59:50

How funny. I don’t mind if people can rent in a way that works for them. So many here seem so insecure that others choose other paths. BIgsby seems to seek external validation. Insecurity…

 
 
 
 
Comment by Mo Money
2013-04-18 10:16:27

“Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be much less tomorrow for many years to come.”

Enjoy being poor the rest of your life rent boy.

Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 10:17:45

Don’t take it personal.

Rental rates are HALF the monthly cost of buying at current massively inflated housing prices. Nothing cashflows at these prices.

Get over it.

 
Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 11:18:10

Why buy when you can rent for half the monthly cost?

Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:18:52

Here’s a nice house in my neighborhood

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4306-S-Warlance-Ln_Janesville_WI_53548_M87285-71607

$219k. I acre wooded lot. 1900 sq ft. Price a bit high per square foot for area. This was just the first house that popped up on Realtard site in my zip.

Mortgage $800 or so. Taxes $250 or so. Factor in yer own upkeep estimates and amortize as ya will.

Here in town, 850 sqare foot apartments rent at $850-900 in tolerable complexes.

Can ya’all find me a house like this for $500/mo, half the cost to own?

And, if I earn $300k/year as an evil doc, and if the house (Incalculable losses I think I can in fact calculate), de-bubblates to value of Zero when the 30year mortage is done, why specifically should I be… unhappy?

Or if I do a 15 year mortage ($1500 payment not $1100 payment) and I have no mortgage and just taxes then ($280 now, might grow some by then), and pay say $400/month in “mortgage/tax starting in fifteen years on this place, how horrible is that, so that I should be quavering in fear of incalculable losses, and “bank slave”?

Funny thing is, I rent and fully get the issues at risk in house purchasing. But, I am willing to see nuances. Probably makes me bad for the Echo Chamber crowd.

And, dang, my car done depreciated again today.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 19:26:33

And so did your increasingly worthless shack.

How large are your losses so far?

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:54:08

Poor Pimpy. Trying so hard for Schadenfreude.

PImpy thinks I own a Shack.

Pimpy thinks it is his worry if I own a Shack.

Pimpy can’t show me the Shack I posted renting for half the mortgage

Pimpy is mad my mortgage would cost less than half my dinner-out costs each months.

Funny pimpy.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 19:55:52

Stop backpedalling.

What are your losses on your depreciating shack?

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 20:08:07

Pimpy cannot ride bike, thus has to imagine how people pedal. Funny Pimpy.

Someone find me house like the one for sale, for half the posted monthly costs… puhhhlease.

 
Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 20:11:43

Don’t be so ashamed. There are millions of others just like you. Underwater, indebted and no way out.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 22:01:35

Bigsby is indebted and underwater. Sad really.

But, this thread tangent started with a claim one can rent for half the price of “owning”. I merely ask where one can rent the house I showed for half the price of the mortgage/tax/upkeep (never mind after the tax break)…

Just sayin…

 
Comment by rms
2013-04-18 22:09:03

“Here’s a nice house in my neighborhood”

At $219k and property taxes north of $5k/yr would price me out, and I’m hauling in ~$82k/yr. The added costs of raising a family are the sinker, so the typical Joe Sixpack would likely crash-n-burn if he signs on for this place. Man, over $400/month in taxes, and that place probably has a septic tank and water well, both very expensive when they need work.

Nice place though.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 22:22:53

Thanks RMS. I don’t own it of course. It was just the very first listing that popped up (”featured”) when I searched the realtard site. In these chats I very much take no stand on anyone’s individual wealth or comfort zone. The house in question is < 2/3 my annual salary. Our town has nice houses starting around $75k. I have a friend who earns 20x what I do. We all live how/where we live. That’s cool.

Realterd site claims taxes $3600/year. Mortgage would be $900/year at 30 years or $13,000/year at 15 years. Let’s say $13,000 year total for “ownership”. First 8 years, what, 40% discount for tax break (yes, I itemize and blow by the automatic deduction sans housing). Even at $5000 taxes…

I posted this only to address the “one can rent for half the cost of owing” thingy that someone claimed. Perhaps in some places this is true.

But, I invite anyone to show my Like House in Like Neighborhood for $600-700/month. Log Home. Stunning. 1 Acre wooded lot. Big Basement. Wood everwhere.

I’m in no rush to become a mortgage holder again. I just have doubts about the ECHO chamber element here (”It’s always cheaper too”).

If I bought that house for 15 yr mortgage, one I could never rent for 1/2 cost (could not rent for full cost of payments), and paid $1500 month ($900 post tax break the first few years), in 15 years I’d owe 5-6000/year in Taxes only. Could I “rent it for 1/2 price then”, $300/month?

Food fer thought…

 
 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:25:58

Think the “Link” to the log house gorgeous condition on wooded lot, caught the post in moderation. Let’s try with link delted but with detail added.

Here’s a nice house in my neighborhood

4306-S-Warlance-Ln_Janesville_WI_53548_M87285-71607

$219k. I acre wooded lot. 1900 sq ft. Price a bit high per square foot for area. This was just the first house that popped up on Realtard site in my zip. Log house. Hardwood everywhere. Huge stone fireplace. Neat ceiling angles. A place to live for a lifetime. If the moderated (with link) post pops through, you can then see the images.

Mortgage $800 or so. Taxes $250-300 or so. Factor in yer own upkeep estimates and amortize as ya will.

Here in town, 850 sqare foot apartments rent at $850-900 in tolerable complexes.

Can ya’all find me a house like this for $500/mo, half the cost to own?

And, if I earn $300k/year as an evil doc, and if the house (Incalculable losses I think I can in fact calculate), de-bubblates to value of Zero when the 30year mortage is done, why specifically should I be… unhappy?

Or if I do a 15 year mortage ($1500 payment not $1100 payment) and I have no mortgage and just taxes then ($280 now, might grow some by then), and pay say $400/month in “mortgage/tax” starting in fifteen years on this place, how horrible is that, so that I should be quavering in fear of incalculable losses, and “bank slave”? I spend way more per month on dinner out.

Funny thing is, I rent now and I fully get the issues at risk in house purchasing. But, I am willing to see nuances. Probably makes me bad for the Echo Chamber crowd.

And, dang, my car done depreciated again today.

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Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 19:44:49

Oh yeah, and for the first, what, 8 years of the 15 year mortage that $1500 payment (or the $1100 payment on 30 year), would be a huge tax break. So for first 8 years effectively, what a $800-900 payment including tax? Can someone find me this house to rent for $400/month?

Just sayin’…

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 19:46:01

Schmendrik???????! no way!!! Where ya been Bish?!

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 20:09:15

Too many questions marks. Sign of weak intellect.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 20:35:31

Too many insults and factual misrepresentations.

Sign of a troll.

 
Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 20:44:18

But that’s why McBoy is so fun. No facts and all troll.

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 22:04:30

Whacky’s and Biggy’s search for external validation is a sad sign of insecurity.

The thread tangent started more or less with, “why buy when one can rent for 1/2″

I’ve posted a fact. An asking price for a house with the listing and the costs associated.

I ask to see a like house in like neighborhood renting for half the price.

Whacky/Biggy whining instead of addressing is… telling :)

Theees eeez soooo much fuuuun….

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 22:08:25

Weird to see Whacky and Biggy use Tactic 1 from the Losing Debater’s Manual, because they didn’t like the fact that was my post.

I am waiting to see the answer to where I can find like house in like neighborhood for half the costs cited in muh post.

Bwhahahahahah….

 
Comment by macboy
2013-04-18 22:11:21

Oops. Facts…

$219k. I acre wooded lot. 1900 sq ft. Price a bit high per square foot for area. This was just the first house that popped up on Realtard site in my zip.

Mortgage $800 or so. Taxes $250 or so. Factor in yer own upkeep estimates and amortize as ya will.

Here in town, 850 sqare foot apartments rent at $850-900 in tolerable complexes.

Can ya’all find me a house like this for $500/mo, half the cost to own?

And, if I earn $300k/year as an evil doc, and if the house (Incalculable losses I think I can in fact calculate), de-bubblates to value of Zero when the 30year mortage is done, why specifically should I be… unhappy?

Or if I do a 15 year mortage ($1500 payment not $1100 payment) and I have no mortgage and just taxes then ($280 now, might grow some by then), and pay say $400/month in “mortgage/tax starting in fifteen years on this place, how horrible is that, so that I should be quavering in fear of incalculable losses, and “bank slave”?

Funny thing is, I rent and fully get the issues at risk in house purchasing. But, I am willing to see nuances. Probably makes me bad for the Echo Chamber crowd.

And, dang, my car done depreciated again today.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 07:31:19

“The Coming Housing Collapse: The Fed, Instead Of Lehman, Owns The Mortgage Market”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2013/03/05/peter-schiff-and-the-coming-housing-collapse-the-fed-instead-of-lehman-owns-the-mortgage-market/

There are many reasons NOT to buy a house right now.

1) Prices are massively inflated
2) Rental rates are half the cost of buying at current inflated prices
3) The cost of new housing is a fraction of resale housing in $/square foot.
4) $/square foot prices are falling

…. and most importantly… You’re going to lose alot of money if you buy a house now. ALOT of money.

 
Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 07:34:51

Phoenix Rental Rates Heading Down Down Down

Why pay an inflated price for a depreciating house in Phoenix when you can rent it for increasingly less money?

http://picpaste.com/pics/d89f9a1b2d5b6b74e518b5c9b7516f98.1366210461.png

 
 
Comment by cactus
2013-04-18 08:35:05

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-housing-market-recovery-101300325.html

1. The housing recovery is being led by investors.

2. The economic recovery is just not strong enough yet.

3. Government cuts will hurt homeowners

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 09:10:15

A “recovery in housing” is dramatically lower prices by definition. So no…. there is no housing recovery… yet.

 
 
Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 09:42:06

Alemeda County Housing Price Correction Resumed And Trending Down Again

http://picpaste.com/pics/3a0bf912e42e8c06bccff308694ece29.1366303165.png

Demand is cratering too.

 
Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 09:53:32

Contra Costa County California Housing Price Declines Resumed

http://picpaste.com/pics/1a17859d0a73ae3132cbd224cdf0096b.1366303900.png

Housing demand here is non-existent.

Comment by Mo Money
2013-04-18 10:18:25

“Housing demand here is non-existent”

Bullsh*T, call any Realtor and ask how much inventory there is for sale, the answer is two weeks.

Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 10:54:37

this rubbish continues everyday.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 11:04:55

You just can’t dominate the blog with your typical realtor rubbish huh…..

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Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 11:31:30

can you at least change up your stories about how the world is ending?

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 11:35:54

Falling housing prices to dramatically lower levels is the end of the world?

Nonsense. Falling prices to very cheap levels is bullish optimism.

 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2013-04-18 11:54:45

Call any Realtor? Realtors are LIARS.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 12:37:11

Wait a second…. did you say what I thought you did?

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Comment by Iwog
2013-04-18 10:21:29

Housing demand here is non-existent.

Obviously and for one simple reason. Prices are massively inflated.

 
Comment by Pete
2013-04-18 16:30:33

“Contra Costa County California Housing Price Declines Resumed”

Once again– you may be right in the long run, but your headline above is not served well by the graph you linked to.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 16:39:55

You’re right.

This chart better reflects the trajectory of the price declines in Contra Costa County.

http://picpaste.com/pics/sBkmpnqr.1366328379.png

 
 
 
Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 10:10:21

“Boomerang Foreclosures” Are Back As Bernanke’s Second Housing Bubble Begins To Pop

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-14/boomerang-foreclosures-are-back-bernankes-second-housing-bubble-begins-pop?

And the pop has begun in CA.

 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2013-04-18 11:13:29

So, I came across this the other day: A list of median and average wages, from the Social Security Administration.

Are these numbers sufficient to maintain house prices on the current upward trajectory? Is FHA’s debauched lending, the Fed’s MBS buying and the hedge fund foreclosure buying sufficient to keep maintaining house price movement upwards?

Or, as Shiller and El-Arian have said, the current asset markets are totally artificial and existing at these levels due solely to the monetary manipulations of central banks? And what does that mean for the long term? If these levels aren’t validated by fundamentals, what does that mean for the longer term?

What about indefinite sequestration of debt on central bank balance sheets? What about indefinite growth of central bank balance sheets? What about a black swan shock? What about some factor the central bank cannot overwhelm with its magic checkbook?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 12:00:22

“Also shown is the ratio of median to average amounts.”

That is a good sign of income divergence between the 99% and the 1%, as the average is pulled up more by outliers at the upper end of the income distribution than the median is.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 12:13:57

Is the U.S. headed towards governance by oligarchy, or did we arrive long ago?

Comment by ecofeco
2013-04-18 12:35:37

About 35 years ago.

It was called “deregulation”.

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Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2013-04-18 12:51:18

It was called “globalization”. The advertising geniuses of the Business Roundtable succeeded in tricking everyone into thinking that “globalization” was the same as using e-mail and eating Mexican food. In reality, it is just global corporatism, wherein the corporation supersedes the state. When the voice of the citizenry is muzzled by the dollar of the corporation, you end up with a problem such as ours.

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-04-18 15:05:58

It doesn’t have to be based on the 99%vs1%.

It can also simply be driven by the fact that lower education/income earners have been hit hardest in terms of job losses/wage stagnation during the downturn, and also because of globalization.

 
 
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2013-04-18 12:48:06

I think the long-term behavior is to bounce along the top until inflation has had time to catch up with the artificial gains. Every asset class seems to have been doing this since the turn of the millennium.

Comment by Neuromance
2013-04-18 14:05:57

If of course, wages can keep up with the asset prices.

If not, they can do the “Flying Troll” routine - sell houses to each other, for a while.

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 14:47:26

“think the long-term behavior is to bounce along the top until inflation has had time to catch up with the artificial gains.”

If you think wages will magically triple to meet distorted asset prices, you’re going to be in for a major disappointment.

Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2013-04-18 16:24:33

But look at the stock charts. Stocks really are bouncing along the top. Beats me, but they are.

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Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2013-04-18 16:26:10

Actually, maybe I should clarify what I meant. We are now on our third consecutive stock-market bubble. Each bubble is one bounce along the top. Each has its own peak and trough, but yet they are still at the top of one giant bubble that started in the 1980s.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 20:40:21

“But look at the stock charts. Stocks really are bouncing along the top. Beats me, but they are.”

It happened back in 1929, too.

Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.

Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by cactus
2013-04-18 12:14:38

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ready-play-coming-deflation-trade-181954674.html

What seemed like economic fantasy could soon become cold reality as the global economy wrestles with deflation despite hundreds of billions in central bank money creation.

Investors have been fleeing assets normally linked with economic growth such as materials stocks, energy commodities and copper.

They’ve been rushing not only from gold but also investments that act as a shield against inflation.

And one prominent Federal Reserve member this week openly discussed whether the U.S. central bank needs to accelerate, rather than pull back, its asset purchase program. “

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 12:37:14

“…whether the U.S. central bank needs to accelerate, rather than pull back, its asset purchase program.”

It would ultimately prove an exercise in futility, as the more they fuel bubble speculation on accelerating QE3-to-infinity, the more bubbleliciously overvalued real asset prices will become.

Given enough quantitative easing, all asset classes will soon have pre-crash Bitcoin valuation levels.

Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 12:58:52

It might get more money in the banks hands so they can gamble more in stocks and commodities.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 14:31:09

How much more do you think those loosers want to loose?

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Comment by Bluestar
2013-04-18 12:52:13

I think the lesson here is that digital dollars don’t cause inflation. Paper dollars paid as wages will cause inflation.

Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 13:07:26

Thats a good assessment. It seems the money is not making into the hands of the avg joe via wages. Seems like the money is being used to pay down bad debt and gambling.

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 12:33:25

Does the fact that almost half of recent U.S. home purchases were made with 100% cash increase or decrease the risk of another big crash before the housing bubble finally begins receding into the lens of history’s rear-view mirror?

My inner skeptic is concerned that a critical mass of recent all-cash buyers are fly-by-night investors who plan to cash out before the next crash. And I note this strategy didn’t work out too well for many tech stock, beanie baby and Bitcoin investors; perhaps U.S. residential housing is different?

Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 13:11:32

Selling is always the tough part. You have to make money but also think about not leavn too much money on the table. If you get too greedy you could end up chasn the market down.

Dont be a hog!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2013-04-18 15:15:03

What caused the first leg down in housing? People being overleveraged, unable to service the debt, and being forced to sell. Once prices started to fall, there were no buyers left to prop up prices, no one willing to buy on an investment basis (because the rental yields were too low), and everyone willing to walk because they had none of their own money into the purchase (lots of 2nd DOTs, liar loans, etc.).

Being in hard assets without leverage gives these investors staying power…especially since they are renting the homes–generating revenue–they get paid to wait.

Tech stocks had no income and no prospect for income–pure bubble excitement.
Beanie babies have no income, and no utility–a fad-driven bubble.
Bitcoins are people grasping at straws for safety–we will see if it turns into a real currency (ie. people place value on them).

Housing has utility (shelter), which generates tangible income since people place value on being sheltered from the elements.

In MANY regards housing is different than these other things.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 16:00:16

And why were they overleveraged Rental Pimp?

Comment by Rental Watch
2013-04-18 17:58:37

They borrowed more than they could afford to pay back.

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Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 18:07:30

And why did they do that Rental Pimp?

 
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 21:41:17

And why did they do that?

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 16:46:36

“Being in hard assets without leverage gives these investors staying power…especially since they are renting the homes–generating revenue–they get paid to wait.”

The fact that they bought with cash is a false indicator that no leverage (OPM) was involved. My guess is that there is more leverage in play here than meets the eye, hidden by the fact that it comes in another form besides mortgage loans to owner occupants.

This is just an educated guess…

Comment by Rental Watch
2013-04-18 18:00:14

Real Estate equity funds infrequently leverage up at the fund level. It is most common at the asset level.

Additionally, IF the fund leveraged at the fund level, the amount of leverage provided to the fund would be far lower than if they borrowed on each individual asset.

We are not talking about 90% here. We are talking about far less.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 23:34:36

“…infrequently leverage up at the fund level…”

Remember that this time is different.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 12:39:40

ft dot com
April 18, 2013 3:46 pm
US house price rises accelerate
By Anjli Raval in New York

An Exit Realty Consultants ‘for sale’ sign is displayed in front of a house in Stockton California, US
©David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

The housing crisis in America may finally be over, but the bill has yet to be paid

James Jeddeloh, a 61-year-old consultant from Oregon, loves to play golf in Scottsdale, Arizona. So much so that last month the soon-to-be retiree decided to buy a house in the state that boasts 300 days of sunshine a year and turn his holiday destination into a home. But he is not the only one.

Since house prices bottomed out in 2012, homebuyers have rushed to snap up properties at depressed prices in one of the states hit hardest by the housing bust.

“I had been waiting for prices to reach rock bottom and stabilise. The market finally gained some sanity so it was time to get back in the game,” said Mr Jeddeloh.

In the past year, newly confident Americans – particularly families and retired people – bought homes after years of holding off, while investors, large and small, came in their droves looking to turn properties into rental housing.

Spurred by record low mortgage rates and an improving jobs market, homebuyers sopped up existing inventories. Price rises accelerated as homebuilders struggled to meet demand and banks sold fewer foreclosed properties. The question now being asked is this: is the US witnessing the creation of a new housing bubble?

Property research provider CoreLogic said its national home price index rose 10.2 per cent in February, the biggest year-on-year gain since March 2006, with Arizona among the states seeing the largest home price appreciation, up 18.6 per cent.

“Prices were up significantly, with a lot of the subprime properties off the market, so we had to strike while the iron was hot,” Mr Jeddeloh added. “We asked a friend to see the place for us and we put in an offer within 48 hours of the house going on the market.”

In order to get the best deals, homebuyers are participating in bidding wars, property agents are holding flash sales, investors are making all-cash offers and sellers are marking up homes week after week.

“If a house is priced well and in good shape it is not uncommon for buyers to bid 5 per cent over the asking price. We have to be aggressive,” said Jeff Sibbach, a property agent in Scottsdale. “Five out of seven of my clients are doing this.”

Even as thousands of homeowners are still trapped in negative equity, evidence of homebuyer exuberance for existing and new homes in pockets across the US has prompted concern among some industry watchers. These tactics, they caution, hark back to the frothiest months of the housing bubble in 2004-05.

Others are less worried. While more than a quarter of all homes were bought without any downpayment in 2006, almost half today are paid for in cash.

“Current affordability is almost entirely dependent on low interest rates, and there’s no doubt that rates will begin to rise in the next few years”

- Stan Humphries, chief economist, Zillow

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 14:30:05

How long will it take U.S. house price movements to catch up with those of other hard assets (e.g. commodities)?

Or is housing fully decoupled now, even though it was the same credit bubble that drove prices crazy in both markets?

ft dot com
April 18, 2013 6:18 pm
Trading houses go cool on commodity prices
By FT Reporters
An employee stands inside a grain bin at Kahle Supply and Feed Mill’s facility in Ohio
©Bloomberg

For the head of one of the world’s biggest commodity trading houses, Ernest Hemingway nailed the state of agriculture markets with his description of Switzerland: “a small, steep country, much more up and down than sideways.”

Alberto Weisser, chief executive of Bunge, told the FT’s Global Commodities Summit in Lausanne this week this was particularly true of the last five or six years. The prices of many basic foodstuffs have gyrated sharply.

Indeed, right now almost all commodity markets, including agriculture, are headed swiftly down the mountain slopes. And trading house executives believe the latest decline in prices has some way to run.

 
 
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2013-04-18 12:43:40

Comment by “Uncle Fed, why won’t you love ME?”
2013-04-17 10:44:06

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-15 17:59:35

Not true.

And how would you know the “cost of construction”?

Answer: I asked a guy how much it would cost to build a new house on a lot, and then I compared that to the price of buying a comp.
Reply to this comment
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-17 11:13:19

And what was his price?
Reply to this comment
Comment by “Uncle Fed, why won’t you love ME?”
2013-04-17 12:38:46

His price was about the same as buying a nearly-new house that would be twice as big.
Reply to this comment
Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-17 15:53:00

What did he quote you?
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Reply here

Answer:
I just looked it up in my records. It was $48 per sq ft.

Comment by Pimp Watch
2013-04-18 14:28:35

Good price.

 
 
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2013-04-18 12:45:29

I started to short the stock market yesterday, so everyone cheer for a crash, K? In the meanwhile, I’m mad at the housing bubble, but now I own RE assets, so I’m happy at the same time. Why does the world have to be so manipulative?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 12:58:07

“…but now I own RE assets,…”

Hah! Same here.

Checked yesterday, and I am up 10% — over just the first quarter of 2013! What a joke…

Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 13:04:38

I wonder if foreclosures will speed up once the owners of the homes (whoever that is) can make a profit kicking the bums out and selling the homes?

 
 
 
Comment by ann gogh
2013-04-18 13:07:09

http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/news/2013/04/16/homebuilders-scrap-racist.html?ana=twt

Apr 16, 2013, 9:06am EDT UPDATED: Apr 16, 2013, 10:30am EDT
Homebuilders scrap ‘master bedroom’ because of racist, gender-biased connotations
“Master bedroom” replaced with “owner bedroom” in floor plans
Enlarge
Toll Brothers
Homebuilders are phasing out the term “master bedroom” as a way to describe the largest bedroom in a house.

Michael Neibauer
Staff Reporter-
Washington Business Journal
Email | Twitter
The “master suite” is being phased out — not from our homes, but from our lexicon.
A survey of 10 major Washington, D.C.-area homebuilders found that six no longer use the term “master” in their floor plans to describe the largest bedroom in the house. They have replaced it with “owner’s suite” or “owner’s bedroom” or, in one case, “mastre bedroom.”
Why? In large part for exactly the reason you would think: “Master” has connotation problems, in gender (it skews toward male) and race (the slave-master).
Enter the owner’s suite.
“I imagine it’s not only a more accurate description but also a more politically correct term of art,” said Steve Nardella, senior vice president of operations for Bethesda-based Winchester Homes Inc.
Either way, the “master suite” has been linguistically shoved aside.
Winchester, Pulte Homes, NV Homes and Ryan Homes (both under the NVR Inc. umbrella), Van Metre Cos. and D.R. Horton Inc. have all replaced “master” in their floor plans, some more recently than others.
Richmond American Homes, Shulz Homes Corp. Sekas Homes Ltd. (in some of its models) and Quaker Custom Homes LLC continue to employ the word “master” in their designs.
In general, said Grant Johnson of Sekas Homes, “we’re using owner suite, but sometimes it will come through as master.”
Over time, “master” will be filtered out entirely, he said. The change is “just working through the industry, and finally, bingo, we got it.”
Randy Creaser, owner of D.C.’s Creaser/O’Brien Architects PC, said he ditched “master” in the early 1990s in his home designs. He vaguely recalled a few lawsuits brought against builders over the phrase. Pulte spokeswoman Valerie Dolenga said Pulte made the shift maybe three or four years ago.
Word of the change is now reaching the resale market, where “owner’s bedroom” is most commonly used in higher-end listings, said Brian Block, managing broker for McLean, Va.-based RE/Max Allegiance.
“The terminology has more of an upscale tone to it, particularly in some of the really large homes that truly have a large bedroom, sitting area, enormous walk-in closets, and lavish bathrooms,” Block wrote in an email. “Owner Suite conveys a sense of being distinguished, having ‘made it’ or ‘arrived’ rather than the everyday ‘Master Bedroom.’”
Lorraine Arora, vice president and managing broker of two Long & Foster Real Estate Inc. in Springfield, Va., and Kingstowne, Va., said older brokers tend to use “master,” because that is what they’ve always used, while the younger agents “want to be more politically correct.” Her office, she said in an email, is split between the two terms.
Michael Neibauer covers economic development, chambers of commerce, transportation and politics.

Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-04-18 13:32:08

What bothers me about it is that it implies some sort of marriage. Which means that it’s just another form of couple-ism.

Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2013-04-18 13:41:59

I always just figured the master bedroom was the biggest one. Then again, you do see ads for places with “two master bedrooms”, so it doesn’t really add up when you think about it.

Comment by azdude
2013-04-18 14:00:30

So who’s the dumb money in the AAPL trade? Is einhorn still crying about his losses?

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Comment by ICLEI
2013-04-18 16:05:47

“Homebuilders scrap ‘master bedroom’ because of racist, gender-biased connotations”

“Master bedroom” replaced with “owner bedroom”.

That’s better?

List of slave owners
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Even if that works what are they gonna do with his and hers closets? What if it’s his and his or hers and hers and I don’t even know what they could do with the with the Ts and the Bs? No matter what you do your going to piss somebody off.

Comment by Carl Morris
2013-04-18 16:24:11

Yeah I was thinking “owner” might actually be worse than “master”.

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 14:24:15

How long from now until when California adopts similar rules to keep debtbeats from imposing massive losses on the U.S. taxpayers who insure their $700,000+ home loans?

Private schools, cars, satellite TV to be targets in debt rules
New Insolvency Service of Ireland to be launched in Dublin today

Arthur Beesley
Thu, Apr 18, 2013, 08:26
First published: Thu, Apr 18, 2013, 07:00

Mortgage-holders who cannot repay their home loan will be warned today that they must be prepared to forgo sending their children to private schools and give up luxuries such as a second car and satellite television if they seek to enter an official insolvency arrangement to settle the debt.

The Government expects the Insolvency Service to take a firm line with distressed borrowers on their living expenses, the argument being that many borrowers are doing without second holidays and other luxuries to ensure they can make their mortgage repayments.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 14:26:06

ft dot com
April 17, 2013 5:01 pm
Food prices are forecast to tumble
By Emiko Terazono and Gregory Meyer in Lausanne
Soybeans are harvested near Los Indios, Argentina, on Sunday, April 15, 2012.©Bloomberg

Wholesale food prices are set to fall this year, according to the world’s largest agricultural trading houses, which expect bumper crops in the US and South America.

The forecast of lower cost for commodities from corn to soyabean marks a stark contrast with the 2012 season, when the worst drought in 50 years in the US devastated crops and drove prices to record highs.

“[Prices] will relax for a couple of years,” Chris Mahoney, head of agriculture at Glencore, told the Financial Times Global Commodities Summit in Lausanne.

Alberto Weisser, chief executive of Bunge, one of the world’s largest agricultural traders, said he was “optimistic about prices coming down”.

Comment by Neuromance
2013-04-18 14:39:14

Food prices tumbling is not good. Just like with education, medical care, and housing, we need massive government and central bank intervention to keep food prices high and rising. It’s essential to daily life so it needs to be as expensive as possible. Otherwise the economy will collapse.

Agribusiness will have to work hard to reach the contribution levels of the FIRE sector however:

http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/index.php

Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-04-18 16:08:21

I’m reminded of what Olympiagal said about tumbling prices:

Tumbling? I love to tumble!

And off she went, on a verbal romp that described her various tumbling escapades.

Miss you, Oly.

 
Comment by measton
2013-04-18 19:48:23

I posted a story a month or so ago about the gov buying 400,000 tons of surgar to prop up prices. Expect more of hte same.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2013-04-18 14:51:11

I can see that crops are being harvested down under, but aren’t they counting their chickens before they hatch north of the equator?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 15:20:42

That’s what I thought, too. You can never tell in advance when drought, floods, hail or other natural catastrophes will hammer yields.

Perhaps they have plenty of grain inventories on hand, allowing them to confidently predict price declines in advance (similar to the situation in U.S. residential real estate).

I note that if crop prices go down the tubes, agricultural land prices most likely will be soon to follow.

Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2013-04-18 16:29:16

It may also be related to development of agricultural land in China. They are now using more modern techniques.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 16:43:27

One might guess that the end of the Soviet collective farming system would have led to improved agricultural yields in the Russian grain belt, but I haven’t checked the data…

 
Comment by Pete
2013-04-18 17:03:23

“It may also be related to development of agricultural land in China. They are now using more modern techniques.”

I was amazed when i learned how much rice we shipped to China and the rest of Asia. Here in the Sac Valley, the acreage of rice we grow in the summer is staggering. It’s seeded from the air, with the seeds already slightly sprouted, in two weeks the field is a crazy lush green. Last I heard, at least five years ago, was that the Chinese still essentially grow rice the old school labor-intensive way, by hand. It would make sense for them to upgrade their methods, but there are alot of career rice field workers in the Chinese countryside, to say the least.

 
Comment by Happy2bHeard
2013-04-18 21:17:17

” alot of career rice field workers in the Chinese countryside”

What do you with a couple hundred million unemployed rice workers? That could lead to a lot of social unrest.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Resistor
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 16:42:04

How do they know the guys with the dark jackets, baseball caps on backwards, and heavy backpacks did it?

Comment by usury camp resident
2013-04-18 16:58:39

Would they ever lie?

They are saying that they have a video of the white hat guy planting the bag where one of the bombs went off. Interestingly enough they don’t want to publish that. I wonder why…

Comment by ICLEI
2013-04-18 17:43:19

“Would they ever lie?”

Do you want me to read the card?

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Comment by Arizona Slim
2013-04-18 16:59:44

They don’t.

I think that, at this point, those guys are considered to be persons of interest. Which doesn’t mean that they’re suspected of committing the crime.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 21:24:17

It’s scary to think a random photograph or video taken at a public event can result in the labeling of innocent people as bombing suspects.

Anti-Muslim sentiment doesn’t help much, either.

Teen stunned at portrayal as Mass. bombing suspect
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Associated Press

REVERE, Mass. — A teenager said he is scared to go outside after he was portrayed on the Internet and on the front page of the New York Post as connected to the deadly Boston Marathon bombings.

Photos of Salah Eddin Barhoum, 17, and friend Yassine Zaime were posted on websites whose users have been scouring marathon finish line photos for suspects. The two were also on the Post’s front Thursday with the headline: “Bag men: Feds seek these two pictured at Boston Marathon.”

The Post reported later Thursday that the pair weren’t considered suspects, and the FBI has since identified two other men as suspects in Monday’s bombings, which killed three people and injured more than 180.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 17:00:27

CLICK!

April 18, 2013, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Treasury’s Miller: No banks will be bailed out
By Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — No financial institution, regardless of its size, will be bailed out by taxpayers again, Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Mary Miller said Thursday. As a result of the Dodd-Frank bank regulatory reform, “shareholders of failed companies will be wiped out; creditors will absorb losses; culpable management will not be retained and may have their compensation clawed back; and any remaining costs associated with liquidating the company must be recovered from disposition of the company’s assets and, if necessary, from assessments on the financial sector, not taxpayers,” Miller said in a speech at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. Miller also said evidence was mixed on whether large financial institutions continue to benefit from lower borrowing costs. The Treasury will continue to work to reduce the risks posed by large financial companies and to put in place measures to wind the companies down if the need arises, Miller said.

Comment by Blue Skye
2013-04-18 21:30:11

Mary seems to be walking out of step.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 21:44:13

It’s just cheap talk for now. We won’t know what is really going to happen until the next time a collapsing Wall Street Megabank sends a financial panic through Congress.

 
 
 
Comment by ICLEI
2013-04-18 17:09:19

Biden: Obama exploring executive orders to combat gun violenceBy

Josh Levs, CNN
updated 7:33 AM EST,
Thu January 10, 2013

(CNN) — President Barack Obama is exploring executive orders to help prevent mass shootings in America, Vice President Joe Biden said Wednesday.

“The president is going to act. Executive orders, executive action, can be taken,” Biden told reporters before meetings with groups representing survivors of mass shootings. “We haven’t decided what this is yet, but we’re compiling it all with the help of the attorney general and all the rest of the Cabinet members.”

Legislative action also is needed, Biden said.

“I’m convinced we can affect the well-being of millions of Americans, and take thousands of people out of harm’s way, if we act responsibly,” he said.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/09/politics/gun-control-battle - -

Ya know, they play Hail to the Chief for Obama but they don’t have a song for Joe Biden. How about this….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPItNLXT_pw - 214k -

Comment by Blue Skye
2013-04-18 21:26:14

Well, he couldn’t give us a recovery. He couldn’t give us sustainable energy. He couldn’t give us public healthcare. He couldn’t give us government without big business payoffs. He couldn’t give us justice or honesty. He couldn’t give us peace or privacy. He couldn’t unite us.

He might as well disarm us.

 
 
Comment by ICLEI
2013-04-18 18:01:45

Uploaded on May 11, 2011

To “jump to” important parts of the video, select “SHOW MORE” below.

Chapter markers (select the link to go there)
01:16 - Comments on the meeting by the Public
05:31 - Erica Wood - Silicon Valley Community Foundation
06:14 - Federal Glover - Metropolitan Transportation Commission

ONE BAY AREA: “AGENDA 21″, the UN’s diabolical plan comes to …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kH5KYGV8314 - 229k -

 
Comment by ICLEI
2013-04-18 18:30:55

Does The New ‘White House Rural Council’ = UN’s Agenda 21?

Jun. 21, 2011 2:34 pm
Mike Opelka

On June 9, 2011, President Obama signed his 86th Executive Order, and almost nobody noticed.

(For the record, Obama is on par to match President Bush’s 291 orders executed during his two terms in office. The National Archives defines an Executive Order this way; Executive orders are official documents, numbered consecutively, through which the President of the United States manages the operations of the Federal Government.)

President Obama’s E.O. 13575 is designed to begin taking control over almost all aspects of the lives of 16% of the American people. Why didn’t we notice it? Weinergate. In the middle of the Anthony Weiner scandal, as the press and most of the American people were distracted, President Obama created something called “The White House Rural Council” (WHRC).

Section One of 13575 states the following:

Section 1. Policy. Sixteen percent of the American population lives in rural counties. Strong, sustainable rural communities are essential to winning the future and ensuring American competitiveness in the years ahead. These communities supply our food, fiber, and energy, safeguard our natural resources, and are essential in the development of science and innovation. Though rural communities face numerous challenges, they also present enormous economic potential. The Federal Government has an important role to play in order to expand access to the capital necessary for economic growth, promote innovation, improve access to health care and education, and expand outdoor recreational activities on public lands.

Warning bells should have been sounding all across rural America when the phrase “sustainable rural communities” came up. As we know from researching the UN plan for Sustainable Development known as Agenda 21, these are code words for the true fundamental transformation America.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2011/06/21/does-the-new-white-house-rural-council-uns-agenda-21/ - 372k -

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2013-04-18 18:49:13

What’s really going on in California

California imposed a new law on banks innocuously called “Homeowners Bill of Rights” which forces banks to switch over to a judicial foreclosure process, which they can opt to do on their own, but takes a year or more to renegotiate contracts and compensation structures for the foreclosure law firms who do all the leg work for the banks. And while those changes are being made… it makes it appear that foreclosures have slowed down dramatically in the state.

The reality?

Defaults (undeclared) are spiraling upward that yet have to pass through the foreclosure pipeline.

The truth?

California is still the highest foreclosure state in sheer volume and percentage.

The low-down?

Resale housing is still massively overpriced as a result of unprecedented interference by individual states and the federal government. The market distortions will be removed and the down draft will continue allowing the market to correct.

With millions of excess empty houses and housing demand at 17 year lows, housing prices have a long way to fall. A very long way to fall.

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2013-04-18 20:05:56

Silver coins in the most affordable batches or lots (under 500 ounces) are all sold out at the L.A. coin shop where I go. Platinum eagles all sold out all sizes. Gold is still buyable in all makes and sizes.

 
Comment by Bill in Los Angeles
2013-04-18 20:29:22

This gold bug ain’t for turning! Bill Bill Bonner

http://lewrockwell.com/bonner/bonner589.html

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 21:06:45

So long as the Fed doesn’t take away the punch bowl, the gold bug brigade ought to be able to make money through “buying the dip.”

Once the Fed takes away the punch bowl, all bets are off. But they have indicated that is years out. Meanwhile, there has never been a better time to buy physical!

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 22:01:01

Not to worry! The Fed is still worried about deflation, and they have already shown that when push comes to shove, they are happy to tolerate and even inflate asset bubbles in order to offset their fears.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 22:02:01

April 18, 2013, 5:51 p.m. EDT
Fed comments show growing focus on low inflation
Stories You Might Like
Fed’s Kocherlakota: Low rates may last 5-10 years
The case for owning gold has collapsed
China is repeating Japan’s economic mistakes
By Greg Robb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve will be watching price data closely for further signs of falling prices, two central bank officials indicated on Thursday Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker and Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said that that the Fed must be on its guard against falling prices. “If inflation looked like it was going to sag further on a persistent basis, I would certainly consider stimulus for the purpose of bringing inflation up to target,” Lacker told reporters, according to Bloomberg. In a separate speech, Kocherlakota said that cooling price pressures were “definitely a cause for concern.” The comments echo remarks made Wednesday by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who said he was concerned that the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, increased at a 1.3% rate in February, well below the Fed’s 2% target. Economists said the implication of the concern is that the Fed may maintain its $85 billion-per-month asset-purchase program for longer than expected and perhaps augment it with other easing steps.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 23:32:45

“…perhaps augment it with other easing steps.”

What else do they have up their sleaves? I guess they could, in principle, either directly use quantitative easing to prop up sagging home prices and other asset prices, or else make zero- or near-zero-interest loans to do it by proxy.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 23:46:24

These words should be like the balm of Gilead for gold bugs’ recent wounds:

…The central banks of China and the emerging powers bought 535 tonnes last year to escape dollars and euros, the biggest wave of state purchases since 1964. Their strategy is to buy the dips, and they are no fools. The head of China’s reserve manager “SAFE” used to run a US hedge fund.

They won’t try to catch a “falling knife”, prefering to wait until the dust settles. The upward trend of the great bull market has been broken. The technical damage is brutal. Bank of America expects a further drop to $1,200. Be patient.

My view is that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan “caused” the gold crash. The rest is noise. The Fed assault began in February when it published a paper warning that the longer quantitative easing continues, the harder it will be for the bank to extricate itself.

The report was co-written by former Fed governor Frederic Mishkin, often deemed Ben Bernanke’s “alter ego”. It said the Fed’s capital base could be wiped out “several times” once borrowing costs climb. The window will start shutting by 2014, with trouble then compounding at a “dramatic” pace.

This was a shock. It suggested that the Fed has lost its nerve, and will think long and hard before launching a fresh blitz of money if growth falters.

Then came last week’s Fed Minutes, with hints of tapering off QE earlier that expected. That was the next shock. What they seemed to be saying is that the US economy is groping it way back to normality, that the era of silly money is over, that the dollar will stand tall again.

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Comment by inchbyinch
2013-04-18 20:29:34

I am watching PBS American Experience show online “Henry Ford” as I treadmill. Another great documentary. I didn’t know he bought a newspaper in MI and used it to carry anti-Semitism messages. I didn’t know about him suing a newspaper over a liable issue, and his image being tainted as a joke intellectually, only to make him more popular with common people”. And he manipulated and played the media for his targeted result.This documentary is REALLY interesting.

Comment by Bigsby
2013-04-18 20:56:03

That’s great but this is the Housing Bubble Blog.

What did you pay for your debt-dump?

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 21:07:48

This just isn’t Boston’s week.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 21:09:57

My daughter’s school had a similar gunman incident last fall, sans gunshots. The whole campus was on lockdown for many hours. (She managed to escape by the hair of her chin just before lockdown…)

‘Extremely dangerous’: Gunshots reported on MIT campus

Massachusetts State Police, Cambridge Police and MIT Police search at the scene of the shooting of a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Police Officer in Cambridge, Massachusetts, April 18, 2013.
By Becky Bratu, Staff Writer, NBC News

Gunshots were reported near Building 32 on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology campus Thursday night, according to the university.

Shots were registered at 10:48 p.m. ET, and the situation remained “active and extremely dangerous,” according to MIT’s emergency website. Responding agencies were investigating the active shooter incident.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 21:12:00

Police: Campus officer shot at MIT
William M. Welch USA Today
12:06 a.m. EDT April 19, 2013

A campus police officer at Massachusetts Institute of Technology outside Boston was shot Thursday night, a Cambridge, Mass., officer said.

MIT campus police referred a caller to the campus news bureau, where no one answered calls.

The school posted a statement on its website saying only that there had been gunshots heard near the Stata building on campus. It said the area was cordoned off by police and urged students to stay away from the area.

“At 10:48 PM today gunshots were reported near Building 32 (Stata) which is currently surrounded by responding agencies. The area is cordoned off. Please stay clear of area until further notice. Unknown if injuries have occurred.. Although the situation is considered active and extremely dangerous, an investigation is underway. Updates will be provided at this site when more information becomes available.”

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 21:56:56

Yegads!

Campus police officer killed in ‘active’ shooting at MIT
Massachusetts State Police, Cambridge Police and MIT Police search at the scene of the shooting of a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Police Officer in Cambridge, Massachusetts, April 18, 2013.
By Becky Bratu, Staff Writer, NBC News

A Massachusetts Institute of Technology police officer was shot and killed Thursday night while investigating a disturbance on the Cambridge, Mass., campus, officials said.

There were reports of shots fired at 10:48 p.m. ET, and the situation remained “active and extremely dangerous,” according to MIT’s emergency website.

The situation remained “very fluid” after midnight, as police continued to sweep the campus.

Police were still looking for a suspect and no arrests had been made as of early Friday, according to the Middlesex County District Attorney’s office.

The area around the school’s Building 32 was cordoned off and students and staff were warned to “stay clear of area until further notice.”

Massachusetts State Police were assisting Cambridge and MIT police in the investigation.

“No arrest has been made and the search for a suspect or suspects is ongoing,” read a statement from the Massachusetts State Police.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 21:20:40

There also seems to be some kind of contagion effect from the Monday incident.

P.S. The Berkeley versus Cal State L.A. comparison is telling. Berkeley must have a lot of experience with bomb scares — after all, the Unabomber was once a math professor on their faculty.

Chaos after false bomb threat at Cal State L.A.

The call was later deemed a hoax, but students described a scene of confusion, with many saying the university failed to provide prompt information about the threat and instructions for evacuation.

A Cal State L.A. student runs past a sign taped on a law enforcement vehicle that reads “School is being evacuated. BOMB THREAT.” School administrators ordered the campus cleared, but many students said directions were not clear and chaos ensued. (Don Bartletti / Los Angeles Times / April 18, 2013)
By Samantha Schaefer and Stephen Ceasar, Los Angeles Times
April 18, 2013, 8:51 p.m.

The caller stood at a pay phone outside a Carl’s Jr. in El Monte and warned police: Bombs will explode in two hours, he said. One at Cal State L.A. , the other at UC Berkeley.

The reactions of the two public universities, though, were markedly different.

At Cal State L.A., administrators sounded fire alarms across campus, evacuated dorm rooms and classrooms and canceled school for the rest of the day. UC Berkeley police officials deemed the same threat “low credibility” and the campus proceeded with business as usual.

The threat was later determined to be false, but students and faculty at Cal State L.A. described a scene of chaos and confusion.

“I’m assuming it’s a hoax,” student Jonny Barrios said during the ordeal, “but by the way they’re taking it — especially after Boston — they should have better communication of telling students what’s going on instead of ‘Get out, get out, get out!’

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 23:23:20

Luckily for real estate investors, the many tragic events that have recently transpired in Boston will not slow down the red-hot spring sales season one bit.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 23:28:17

Stay away from guys wearing heavily-loaded backpacks if you happen to be in the Boston area!

Explosives Detonated in Massachusetts Standoff
Brian Snyder/Reuters
Police officers with guns drawn investigated in Watertown, Mass., early Friday morning.
By RAVI SOMAIYA
Published: April 19, 2013

Two young men, armed with guns and explosives in what appeared to be backpacks, engaged in a violent standoff with dozens of police on a street in Watertown, Mass., Thursday night, a resident said.
National Twitter Logo.

Police officers blocked off the scene of a shooting at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Mass.

Andrew Kitzenburg, 29, said he looked out of this third floor window to see two young men of slight build in jackets shooting at dozens of police officers from behind a black Mercedes SUV. The officers and the men were 70 yards apart, he said, and engaged in “constant gunfire.”

A police SUV “drove towards the shooters,” he said, and was shot at until it was severely damaged. It rolled out of control, Mr. Kitzenberg said, and crashed into two cars in his driveway.

The two shooters, he said, had a large and unwieldy bomb. “They lit it, still in the middle of the gunfire, and threw it. But it went 20 yards at most.” It exploded, he said, and one of the two men ran towards the gathered police officers. He was tackled, but it was not clear if he was shot, Mr. Kitzenberg said.

The other, he said, got back into the SUV, turned it toward the officers and “put the pedal to the metal.” The car “went right through the cops, broke right through and continued west.”

The two men left “a few backpacks right by the car, and there is a bomb robot out there now.” Police had told residents to stay away from their windows, he said.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 23:52:29

Mayhem Erupts in Boston After MIT Campus Officer Slain
By Annie Linskey, Brian K. Sullivan & Stephen Merelman -
Apr 18, 2013 11:26 PM PT

Mayhem erupted around Boston early today as police pursued suspects thought to be armed with automatic weapons and explosives, heightening tensions in a city reeling from this week’s terrorist bombings.

The violence broke out after the fatal shooting last night of a Massachusetts Institute of Technology campus officer. Police sped from that crime scene toward Watertown, about six miles from MIT, responding en masse to reports of a carjacking and the possible shooting of a second officer, according to law- enforcement radio transmissions.

In Watertown, one suspect was ordered by police to strip naked and was taken into custody. Police had surrounded the man with their guns drawn, ordered him to the ground and shouted. “Drop your underwear!”

It wasn’t immediately clear how many suspects were in custody, with police radio reports indicating that one person had been apprehended, another taken to the hospital, and a third thought to still be at large.

Warnings were issued by police over their radio about “multiple explosive devices.” People in the area were told to stay off mobile phones to avoid setting off any potential bombs. At least one loud explosion was heard.

Boston is still coming to grips with the April 15 bombing of the city’s annual marathon that killed three people and injured more than 170. The Federal Bureau of Investigation yesterday released images of two men it said were suspects in the attack and asked for public help in identifying them. The agency released two more images early today of the men.

‘Wild Event’

It wasn’t immediately known whether there’s a connection between the marathon bombing and the violence overnight. The FBI is aware of the situation and is monitoring it, spokesman Jason Pack said in an e-mail.

Watertown resident Larry Victor described the scene: “Tons and tons and tons of gunfire. Explosions. What a wild event right here in Watertown. I wasn’t about to walk out in the middle of a gun battle.”

Watertown, a community of roughly 32,000 just six miles northwest of Boston, was settled in 1630 by Englishmen who two years later refused to pay taxes without representation, according to the town’s website. The town grew into a mill village, where in the 19th Century sails were made for the U.S.S. Constitution.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2013-04-18 23:55:02

This is not going to happen, as the Fed has demonized deflation (aka more affordable prices of stuff you need) and vowed to fight it.

A commodity slump is your tax cut
April 19, 2013, 2:39 AM

Call it a silver lining, if you will.

A Nomura postmortem of market reaction to gold’s precipitous fall off the cliff recently found “plenty” that is worth interpreting in a positive light, in the U.S., China and beyond.

In the U.S., while a soft patch was “inevitable” after an “extraordinarily strong” first quarter, there was nothing out there to dispute the brokerage’s expectation for a reacceleration of growth in the second-half of the year, said Nomura strategist Michael Kurtz.

And in China, well before Monday’s release of disappointing first-quarter growth data, markets had reached a conclusion that the days of 8.5%-plus GDP growth were over, and that the country’s rate of GDP expansion may drop below 7% by the end of this decade, he said.

So why did gold fall so violently, also dragging along several other commodities and risk assets?

Kurtz said markets had over the last five years likely priced in a “doomsday premium” in tangible assets over paper assets. That premium was now being “sloughed off,” on receding likelihood of a “mortal unraveling” that some sensational commentators had warned about.

“If so, then global growth may in fact be receiving a massive effective tax cut,” he said, adding that the capital that had been locked up in commodities, unproductively, may now be getting released to fund growth and job-creation avenues.

“The gold shock will be tough on primary-goods producers, but may be a boon for everyone else,” Kurtz said.

 
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