Bits Bucket for May 1, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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….Distortions or simply the results of distortions……?
Will higher housing prices ever revert to historical norms when the game is rigged to change the historical norms?
We all compare the past to now, but what are the economic sector distortions and what are simply the results of the distortions?
Endless money printing, QE’s and ZIRP’s are the distortions imo, and higher asset prices in targeted sectors might simply be the results of the distortions. Will the results of the distortions revert to norms because they are only results of distortions, or will the distortions affect the results “forever”?
Do the reflections of fun-house mirrors revert back to reality in the fun-house because they are distorted in the first place, or do the distortions of the fun-house mirrors affect the fun-house reflections “forever”?
Which historical norm do you mean? The historical period 1940-1995 when house prices were 3x middle-class income?
Sorry, HBB tells me repeatedly this period was an “anomaly.” I guess that means house prices of the time were an anomaly as well. No craaaater for you!
We’re going back to house prices circa 1890 Gilded Age. Hope you like living 10 to a house to feed Blackstone’s RBS (rental back securities).
Junkie,
The metric was 2X annual income.
What was the transaction price of your debt-dump?
2.1X? (’cept for CA, cause it’s different here, and everybody is rich)…
Living 10 to a house? Ever heard of these things called “apartments” ?
That dead albatross you’re wearing is looking droopy and it’s starting to smell bad.
Judging from the behavior of “undocumented” immigrants, cramming as many as possible into a rental house is more cost effective. And depending on where you live, apartments can be as pricey as renting a house.
Not only are they more cost effective, they are easier to slip under the radar. Apartment complexes tend to be commercial and thus subject to pesky things like occupancy limits and city inspections, especially if there are Section 8’s in the complex.
Individual SFH, especially in an unincorporated section of a county, are pretty much anything goes. All you need is one person to buy, and then the whole clan moves in.
If people cram 10 to a house, then demand for housing goes down.
Demand for housing is at 17 year lows. No need to worry about demand.
Oxide has a point. I’ve lived in the third world and housing is so utterly unaffordable that millions in Mexico live in cardboard shanties, squatting on land. The 3x rule simply doesn’t apply there.
Hey pimp…… this is the US… remember?
That’s right! Here we have plenty of bridges people can live under!
With 25 million excess empty houses, I don’t think we have to worry about people living under bridges.
With 25 million excess empty houses, I don’t think we have to worry about people living under bridges.
You would think. But as long as TPTB continue to make it more profitable to sequester the inventory than to take the loss…?
We’re already on our way. Witness those 150 sq ft apartments in Seattle.
http://www.jahbread.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/6a00d8341d299553ef011278dbfeac28a4-320wi.jpg
But people in Mexico also pick trash for a living. They pick this trash from impromptu dumps that form sporadically in and around the occupied areas of the country. They continue doing this until they find out that it’s easier to move to the US, work illegally for five years, cram 10 to a house, and then go back to Mexico with their savings of $10,000, which is plenty to buy a nice house there. Mexico house prices crashed when dum Americans stopped buying there, didn’t they?
Can you see that conditions in Mexico are far different from conditions in the United States? I think it might be because Mexico is run by Mexicans.
So adage that “It’s different here” is true after all?
“But people in Mexico also pick trash for a living.”
Is that black market employment, or does Mexico not have a minimum wage?
Well technically, if you factor in housing costs of $0 for homeless U.S. citizens and attribute positive income to them based on what they need to buy food and other sundry necessities, then you would have lots of households at a multiple of zero.
I’m guessing these aren’t factored into Oxide’s 3X…
But Oxide, Blackstone is driving rents down in the cities where they operate. From perusing the blogs of various property managers, I glean that Blackstone undercuts the rental market by 20%. They have looser credit restrictions, allow pets, and hardly ask for a deposit. I verified this information by searching their rental website, Invitation Homes.
Blackstone has no plan to keep everyone poor by trapping them as slave-tenants. They have a fee-income scam, accompanied by a pump-and-dump probability.
Plans can change.
Unca Fed, if prices don’t rise enough to sell the homes, then Blackstone will simply use the rental scheme as a backup plan. And if they sell, who will they sell to, at higher future prices? Not to the tenants, who couldn’t afford the homes even at present prices. No, it will be some other LL as like as not. Either way, the poor will still be tenants.
Blackstone can’t make rents go up. They are flooding the market with excessive rentals. They are causing rents to go down. They have too much competition to fix rents.
Blackstone has said in interviews that they plan to sell their houses to the tenants later on, after the tenants have repaired their credit, since we all know that only foreclosure victims are ever renters. In other words, they are planning a pump and dump. Who knows whether Blackstone will be left standing when the music stops? I know that I will not be left standing. I got me a seat already.
You go drama-queens!
“Unca Fed, if prices don’t rise enough to sell the homes, then Blackstone will simply use the rental scheme as a backup plan.”
The backup plan sounds like a looser, given the falling rents likely to result from too many investors trying their hands at landlordship.
I have NEVER lived anywhere where the rents didn’t go up.
I have only had my rent raised 3 times in my entire life, and I have been renting for 18 years.
I have only had my rent raised 3 times in my entire life, and I have been renting for 18 years.
A good friend of mine has had several rentals for 40+ years. She raises the rent every so often by $5. Seems to work for her. Her son has several rentals (for 20+ years) and he never raises the rent (except when he loses a tenant). Works for him, too. I guess it’s pot luck!
My cousin, a finance professor, once intimated that one of the people he knows who was most successful in building household wealth did so in part by renting for life.
And this played out well before the Housing Bubble made renting cheaper than owning in many parts of the U.S.
These fundamental distortions cannot and will not change the plain fact that people can’t make unaffordable payments.
Unemployment is up. Wages are down. National debt is up. National credit score is down. Now you tell me the results.
Can you say Agenda 21?
Sure you can, I knew you could.
Posted: 3:41 a.m. Wednesday, May 1, 2013
Seattle looks to downsize living spaces
By PHUONG LE
The Associated Press
SEATTLE —
Developers in Seattle have been leading the U.S. in building hundreds of tiny apartments — some about the size of a generous parking spot — to cater to solo young workers, retirees who prefer city living, students and others looking to downsize.
Now, some residents are complaining that micro-apartments crowd too many people together, aren’t compatible with some neighborhoods, don’t encourage people to put down roots, and circumvent a design review process meant to get public input.
They’re pushing for a building moratorium and more regulation of such projects.
“They’re maxing out what they can do under the land use code,” said Patrick Tompkins, who lives in the Capitol Hill neighborhood where some projects have replaced single-family homes, sometimes without much warning.
The city code allowing such tiny units has been around for at least three decades, but micro-apartments have taken off in the last three years, said Bryan Stevens with Seattle’s planning department.
“It’s really coincided with the recession. Apparently there’s pent-up demand,” he said.
Since 2006, the city has permitted 48 micro-housing projects. If all are built, they would yield living quarters for about 2,300 people. The micro-apartments range from 150 to 200 square feet for single occupants, with rents running about $500 to $700 a month and often include utilities, furnishings and Internet.
Seattle code allows up to eight unrelated people to live in one dwelling unit, as long as they have their own individual living quarters and a shared kitchen. Projects meeting this threshold aren’t required to undergo design review, which upsets opponents like Carl Winter.
Supporters, including Mayor Mike McGinn, however, say the micro-apartments provide transit-friendly, affordable options for people who don’t need a lot of space and want access to urban amenities.
There’s a demand for micro-housing because more people are living in single households, said John Infranca, research fellow at the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at New York University Law School. He is co-writing a report on smaller housing units in cities across the country, including Seattle.
———————————————————————————-
Seattle’s Green Building EVOLUTION
City of Seattle (via Sustainable City Network)
Jan. 9, 2012
SEATTLE — The City Green Building team takes an exciting new step in 2012. Beginning in January, part of the “green team” will join forces with the Office of Sustainability and Environment. Staff focused on policy development will become part of OSE, and those focused on green codes and permitting will stay with the Department of Planning and Development, as part of the Operations Division. As this next step unfolds, both DPD and OSE will continue to develop and implement innovative approaches to building sustainable neighborhoods.
City Green Building’s mission, making green building standard practice, has held fast fore more than ten plus years. The city of Seattle’s legacy as a national leader has fostered local adoption of green building practices, moving beyond the early adopters to the mainstream market.
http://www.icleiusa.org/news/seattles-green-building-evolution - 42k -
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FROM THE BERKELEY VOICE NEWSPAPER, BERKELEY CALIFORNIA
2/14/13
High-rise apartments
As a longtime, left-leaning local environmental activist, I have been scratching my head over why our environmentally minded, or so I thought, City of Berkeley equates environmentalism with high-density, big-development projects, such as the high rise “luxury apartment” building featured in Judith Scherr’s Jan. 18 Voice article, a project that was dubbed an “ecotower” by East Bay Express editor Robert Gammon.
It has become clearer to me now that I have read Rosa Koire’s book “Behind The Green Mask: U.N. Agenda 21,” telling of her experiences with the City of Santa Rosa.
Can you remember when we started hearing jargon phrases like “smart growth,” “high density urban mixed use,” and that word that is music to an environmentalist’s ears, “sustainability?” The United Nation’s idea of sustainability is quite different from what the average environmentalist has in mind.
Have you watched as old buildings are torn down and huge building after huge building is erected, now seemingly unoccupied? Why? The City of Berkeley did not come up with this stuff. The exact same lingo, methods and policies are being adopted by cities all over this county, country and world.
Category: Iclei - DEMOCRATS AGAINST U. N. AGENDA 21
http://www.democratsagainstunagenda21.com/1/category/iclei/1.html - 63k - Cached - Similar pages
Apr 19, 2013 … This is how UN Agenda 21/Sustainable Development gets into your town, into … created that make land use decisions unaccountable to the public? …. New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Boston, Seattle, Portland, and Miami.
We have an “agenda” too, sustainable development. It’s renting just enough space that we need, and using the money we save for other things. Our electric bill from October through May is less than $30/month.
$30, that’s impressive. What were your electric bills before you made the effort to economize? Do you lease or own your car(s)?
Sometime later this year my house is going to wired with circuit level sensors to monitor my electrical consumption at a very granular level of volts, watts, frequency etc.. All the data will be compiled and analyzed by pecanstreet.org and used to design the next generation of the US electrical grid. My current electric bill is -$83 (credit) thanks to my 6.7KW solar array. If I had a EV like a Volt or Leaf I would be driving 100% on my own energy now but so far the EV cars are just too expensive for just transportation. If the EV manufactures were to offer integrated EV/Solar packages I would buy one.
Juice is cheap here in the Centennial state. During the cooler months we pay about $70 a month for our 3000 sq ft house. If we got rid of the second fridge in the garage and replaced the electric clothes drier with a gas model the bill would be even less.
Bluestar
You should look at electric conversions, if you have space to park one and are at all handy or know someone who is these can be very economical for around town. I’ve seen some nice conversions for sale dirt cheap.
Hmm where do you put a double bed for the date you brought home last night?
The micro-apartments range from 150 to 200 square feet for single occupants
In a loft arrangement, like any dorm room.
150 sq ft is a challange. Even the IKEA showroom can’t get much smaller than 270 sq ft.
ox if my job was right across the street….it would be doable with a bunch of stuff stored at my moms house…..but realistically is not practical. maybe 1 guy with an iphone and laptop w/ netflix to watch on the laptop…a few changes of clothes.
How many can really live with minimal possessions today. If you have any kind of a home business that wouldn’t even be big enough for the office.
…..a double bed for the date you brought home last night?
As my dear old daddy used to say…”If it’s wide enough for one, it’s deep enough for two.”
…and still bigger than my old Mustang… ah, those were the days.
well if you had a station wagon you never had to worry about a back seat….
Developers in Seattle have been leading the U.S. in building hundreds of tiny apartments — some about the size of a generous parking spot — to cater to solo young workers, retirees who prefer city living, students and others looking to downsize.
I remember first seeing these in a Japanese documentary. I believe the nickname for them over there is “rabbit hutch”
The cost per sq/ft yearly is very high on those microapartments. Next thing you know the developers are going to have America flooded with them, and they will become the new norm.
If only the young people would get it — that they could all flock to someplace cheap and make it cool.
Living arrangements such as these are known as “efficiency apartments”. There is nothing new about them. They’re great for students and drug addicts trying to get their lives back together.
““It’s really coincided with the recession. Apparently there’s pent-up demand,” he said.”
Nobody chooses a micro apartment because they like tiny living spaces. They choose micro apartments because the regular size apartments are TOO FU*KING EXPENSIVE. WAKE UP.
Could someone help me out with a little debunking here?
Pictures That Prove Double Amputee Was An Actor at Boston Bombings
Sunday, April 21, 2013 15:32
Pictures That Prove Double Amputee Was An Actor at Boston …
http://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2013/04/pictures-that-prove-double-amputee-was-an-actor-at-boston-bombings-2626684.html - 298k
It’s actually a devious case of reverse psychology. See, by setting up these bombings, which would normally get people to hate Muslims and want more guns, Obama knew that people would find out he was behind the conspiracy, and that because he was behind it, those same people would decide that anything he’s for they have to be against, and as a result they would have to welcome his long-term aim of loving Muslims and hating guns, just to be against him. It’s so devious that only a person like him with lots of czars can pull it off.
BRILLIANT!
I thought they might want to play with all their new toys and practice Martial Law.
Shocking Footage of Martial Law Tactics in Watertown … - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l07cvZAn0L8 - 181k - Cached - Similar pages
Apr 20, 2013
Shocking Footage: Americans Ordered Out Of Homes At Gunpoint …
http://www.infowars.com/shocking-footage-americans-ordered-out-of-homes-at-gunpoint-by-swat-teams/ - 71k -
Correct. Start from cui bono and work backwards!
Vizzini: You only think I guessed wrong! That’s what’s so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is “never get involved in a land war in Asia” - but only slightly less well-known is this: “Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line”! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha…
“Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line”!
Except that the victim, Jeff Baumann, whose legs were indeed blown off in the bombing isn’t cooperating with your troll’s thesis. Nor are the hundreds of emergency and hospital personnel who have attended to him. Or the many colleagues who work with him.
The troll represents himself as a level 8 EMT, yet he doesn’t even know the anatomy of the primary femoral artery or the mechanics of acute shock.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-19/boston-bombing-victim-in-iconic-photo-helped-identify-attackers.html
I need some more debunking please.
Boston Marathon Bombing - Guy Makes Dust Over … - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrbLERTPpaU - 210k - Cached - Similar pages
5 days ago
Towells, debunked it my own damn self.
Yet we are in the obama housing bubble v2.1…
—————–
U.S. Homeownership Rate Falls to Lowest Since 1995
Prashant Gopal & John Gittelsohn - Apr 30, 2013 - Bloomberg
The U.S. homeownership rate fell to the lowest in almost 18 years, reflecting rising demand for rentals and investor purchases in the housing market.
The share of Americans who own their homes was 65 percent in the first quarter, down from 65.4 percent a year earlier and the lowest level since the third quarter of 1995, the Census Bureau reported today. The vacancy rate for rented homes dropped to 8.6 percent from 8.8 percent a year earlier, while vacancies for owner-occupied houses fell to 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent.
Investors are buying single-family homes and renting them out to capitalize on demand among families unable to qualify for a mortgage. Their purchases, many made with cash, are helping to support the housing recovery and pushing up prices. Home values in 20 cities increased 9.3 percent in February from a year earlier, the most since May 2006, according to the S&P/Case- Shiller (SPCS20Y%) index released today.
The obama housing bubble v2.3
—————
One the way to work this morning.
Over several stations in a 50 minute time period.
FIVE (5) commercials on “how to flip houses” and “how to buy house with none of your money” and “how each flip averages $118,000 profit in NYC”
PS - There are also housing flipping shows back on TV (A&E)
Commercials aren’t very good indicators, or else we would be overrun with Cutco knives, juicers, and Andy Williams.
(although, I’ve heard that the Ronco egg scrambler is pretty useful.)
does it work like my wooden fork/non-stick pan egg scrambler?
does it work like my wooden fork/non-stick pan egg scrambler?
Probably the earliest flyswatters were nothing more than some sort of striking surface attached to the end of a long stick.
build a better flyswatter and the world will beat a path to your door.
Where you find power you’ll find interests contrary to your own.
obama destroying usa with sharia law gay marriages
‘hundreds of colorado gay and lesbian couples put an official government seal on their relationship in the early hours of wednesday morning, after the state’s civil-unions law took effect.’
http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_23143747/colorado-couples-celebrating-last-hours-before-midnight-civil
I wondered why I’ve been feeling so gay lately. Damn you, Obama!
It’s really been a tough week so far for the persecuted heteros. First he endorses gay basketball, and now this!
Lock up your pets, people. Rick Santorum wisely warned us where this will lead…
Lock up your pets, people. Rick Santorum wisely warned us where this will lead…
Just remember these rules re bestiality and you’ll be fine:
1. Never initiate
2. Don’t enjoy.
And as regards polygamy, a good rule of thumb is STRICTLY LIMIT YOUR NUMBER OF WIVES TO THREE.
Any more than three will leave you financially broke and exhausted…
On what planet’s economy would you expect to see all of these headlines on the same day:
1) Home prices improve at the fastest rate in seven years
2) Home prices remain low compared with incomes
3) Home ownership at lowest rate back to 1995
4) Jobs growth slower than expected
It doesn’t add up, does it?
Survey: US private employers add just 119K jobs in April, fewest in 7 months
Published May 01, 2013
Associated Press
WASHINGTON – A survey shows U.S. companies added the fewest jobs in seven months, indicating that government spending cuts and higher taxes may be weighing on the economy.
Payroll processor ADP says private employers added just 119,000 jobs last month. And March’s hiring was slower than first thought: the survey shows just 131,000 added, down from an initial estimate of 158,000.
…
ft dot com
Last updated: April 30, 2013 6:30 pm
US home ownership rate at near 18-year low
By Anjli Raval in New York
The US home ownership rate fell to the lowest in nearly 18 years pointing to the jump in demand for rental housing and investor purchases. A separate data release showed residential property prices posted the largest year-on-year gain in February since 2006.
The share of the country’s population that owned their homes fell to 65 per cent in the first quarter, down from 65.4 per cent in the same period in 2012 and the lowest since the third quarter of 1995, commerce department data showed on Tuesday. Home ownership is still far below the 2005 peak of 69.1 per cent.
…
The vast majority of those 65% who own their homes do not own their homes at all. The Age of Pretense.
There it is.
By chance are there any suckers out there who bought a house from 1998-current who aren’t underwater? Anyone?
are there any suckers out there who bought a house from 1998-current who aren’t underwater? Anyone?
Yea. Me. It’s even hard to see the waves down there. But countries that are 1/2 third world and 1/2 first world are different.
You’re underwater on that seaside shanty in the slums.
seaside shanty in the slums
Come on. Your gettin’ laaazy.
Don’t forget “surrounded by a landfill in a 3rd world country.”
Underwater…. that’s what happens when you pay inflated prices for what are always depreciating assets near water.
See Rio? I told you they had a bubble down there.
See Rio? I told you they had a bubble down there.
Who are you? I leave for a month and everybody’s names have changed. Why is everybody changing names?
I think I’ll change my name to “ThereMightBeABubbleDownHereButIt’sDifferentAndItDoesntRellyMatterToMeBecauseILikeWhereILiveButScotchIsTooExpensiveInBrazil”
Hey Rio:
I went away for a while, but announced a name change when I came back. I think it will be fun for you to guess my “real” identity.
Liar?
I bought a house in 2005 and don’t owe anything on it.
But I will readily admit a small portion of the back yard IS underwater. That’s one of the reasons I bought it.
And you’re still underwater.
What did you pay for this debt-dump?
How is it a debt dump if I don’t have a mortgage? The taxes are about $560 a year. I guess that’s a debt but I grow $560/year worth of vegetables.
Any rent I get from the house is more or less gravy.
Why do you care what I paid for it?
Probably less than you paid for your SUV.
Why does the obvious always have to be explained to you underwater fools? Are you really that clueless?
Brazil is lined up for a trifecta bust.
I am surrounded by co-workers age 60 and older (oldest one is 73 I think) who are still paying off mortgages and can not afford to retire today.
Don’t know if we would enjoy boat life like you do, but we saw this really cool 4WD van for sale in the Loveland Ski Area parking lot. The more time I spend around people strung out on debt dope and spinning the hamster wheel of consumption, the more I want to go live in that van down by the river.
Remember HBB poster Lost in Utah, with her trailer and traveling menagerie?
If you’re going to “own” rather than rent, not owning the house outright as you enter the 60+ years (or even younger if your health is questionable) is epic stupidity. It’s arguable whether owning makes sense at all for most people, even if prices drop (because of job mobility, financial responsibility, etc.) but renting money from the bank during a time when your health and job prospects are declining is foolish. Reminds me of the “Wheel of Fortune” from Carmina Burana, etc. (see http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/43/CarminaBurana_wheel.jpg )
The inscription in Latin translates “I will reign, I am reigning, I have reigned, I have nothing to reign” referring to the stages of life. Obvious the exact years of each phase differ by person, but or decline and mortality is inevitable because of pesky errors in DNA copying.
Go back further for the Wheel of Fortune. It was all over ancient literature. Tacitus talks about it as being over used. Also used in The Consolation of Philosophy by Boethius.
If you’re going to “own” rather than rent, not owning the house outright as you enter the 60+ years (or even younger if your health is questionable) is epic stupidity.
It is far less “stupid” than paying current massively inflated asking prices of resale housing.
Rent for half the cost of current asking prices, buy later after prices crater for 70% less.
I’m just saying that I’m reminded of the concept from Carmina Burana, obviously Orff borrowed liberally from antiquity in his triad that started with CB.
If you’re going to “own” rather than rent, not owning the house outright as you enter the 60+ years (or even younger if your health is questionable) is epic stupidity. It’s arguable whether owning makes sense at all for most people, even if prices drop (because of job mobility, financial responsibility, etc.) but renting money from the bank during a time when your health and job prospects are declining is foolish.
A paid-off house for one’s retirement is top priority, as far as I am concerned.
The stories of elderly folks - in rent-controlled apartments - losing their leases are not exaggerated, at least not in this city.
This SF eviction map tells the story.
The law here (called the Ellis Act) allows for owner occupied evictions, as long as the LL lives in the unit for 3 years. This year alone I personally know of 4 people who have lost their apartments. 3 of them left the city because they could not afford to rent.
Not saying that renting or buying is unequivocally better; every situation is different. But where I live, renters are getting screwed. The rent is too damn high.
buy later
Good plan, but what if “later” is 10-15 years from now?
I am surrounded by co-workers age 60 and older (oldest one is 73 I think) who are still paying off mortgages and can not afford to retire today.
Which happened because people kept “trading up” and never paid off the mortgage. Of course the plan was that they would sell upon reaching retirement and use their equity to pay cash when they downsized. Unfortunately that plan doesn’t work with stagnant and falling prices. It works even less when equity has been extracted via HELOCs.
One of the 60-something mortgage slaves I work with goes up to Blackhawk weekly to play the slots with her husband, and is convinced she has a “system” to beat the house, LOL.
HELOCs are another symptom of western/American sickness w/r/t housing.
A old client of mine’s bookkeeper had a system that actually worked…for while…she was using my client’s money.
You mean Baby Boomers were irresponsible with their unrivaled wealth as a cohort when they were younger? No way!
64, bought in 2002 and paid off 10 yrs ago. I’m glad the Spouse is on the same page with me about this.
“Remember HBB poster Lost in Utah, with her trailer and traveling menagerie?”
She is a very smart gal and a published author many times over. Also loves animals. She is a really good person. If only more people were like her…
+1
“…obviously Orff borrowed liberally from antiquity in his triad that started with CB.”
Really? What music from antiquity used major seconds in the harmony?
I always thought the part of CB that was borrowed from antiquity involved lurid poetry.
Background of Carmina Burana
Composed in 1936, Orff’s Carmina Burana (Songs of the Beuern) can be heard on stages, televisions, and silver screens across the globe. The song’s text, Carmina Burana, was discovered in 1803 at the Monastery of Benediktbeuren near Munich as part of a collection of Latin poetry written by the goliards dating back to the 12th century. Written exclusively for entertainment, the Carmina Burana confronts issues similar to the issues we face today: love, sex, drinking, gambling, fate, and fortune.
…
The US home ownership rate fell to the lowest in nearly 18 years pointing to the jump in demand for rental housing and investor purchases
I am still wondering if this is part of a larger plan (the 1% owning not only most of the county’s wealth but also most of the land and houses) or if it’s just an unintended consequence …
The larger plan is to suck as many people as possible to home debtorship.
Historically, the U.S. home ownership rate has fluctuated between 62% to 65%. So, it looks like we’re getting back to the high end of the normal range.
Was it that high prior to the “anomaly” of the post WW2 middle class?
The dataset I’ve seen goes back to the early 1960s. I’d like to see what it looked like before then.
But a stretch of time from the 1960s until now shows home ownership rates in a pretty tight range. That would be 62-65%.
Google is your friend. “Home ownership rates 1900″ gavbe a few good graphs.
http://www.freeby50.com/2009/04/history-of-homeownership-rates.html
In short:
1895 - 1930: Hovered around 48%
1930 - 1940: Dipped to ~42% (duh)
1940 - 1990: Steady climb to ~64%
1990 - 2005: Touched 70%
2005 - present: Fall to 68%.
1895 - 1930: Hovered around 48%
1930 - 1940: Dipped to ~42% (duh)
1940 - 1990: Steady climb to ~64%
1990 - 2005: Touched 70%
2005 - present: Fall to 68%.
Looks like it would be possible to fall a lot further.
I think this has something to do with the advent of the residential mortgage.
Largest expansion of credit in the history of the planet. It is over.
“2005 - present: Fall to 68%.”
I guess you missed the articles that have been posted here at least seven times since yesterday stating the current U.S. home ownership rate is 65% (lowest level in eighteen years back to 1995) and still tumbling?
U.S. Homeownership Rate Falls to Lowest Since 1995
By Prashant Gopal & John Gittelsohn - Apr 30, 2013 8:55 AM
The U.S. homeownership rate fell to the lowest in almost 18 years, reflecting rising demand for rentals and investor purchases in the housing market.
The share of Americans who own their homes was 65 percent in the first quarter, down from 65.4 percent a year earlier and the lowest level since the third quarter of 1995, the Census Bureau reported today. The vacancy rate for rented homes dropped to 8.6 percent from 8.8 percent a year earlier, while vacancies for owner-occupied houses fell to 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent.
…
Look at the homeownership rate by age cohort, and you’ll see that we are below the longer-term averages.
There are two general trends demographically:
1. The older you are, the more likely you are to own a home; and
2. The population as a whole is aging (ie. there are more older folks proportionally).
These two things combined SHOULD lead to an overall increase in homeownership rate…however, we are seeing the rate fall, which means we are bucking these “normal” trends.
however, we are seeing the rate fall, which means we are bucking these “normal” trends.
Meaning we are wringing out the excesses that were NOT explained by these “normal” trends.
Consider this: In 1982, the homeownership rate for people age 25-29 was about 38%.
In 2005, the number was 41%.
Today, the homeownership rate for this age cohort is 34.4%.
We overshot. As we trend back toward “normal” homeownership rates overall will rise.
It doesn’t add up, does it?
Yes it does.
$7 Trillion in new deficits since obama took office
46 cents of ever dollar the government spends is NOW borrowed money.
The Federal Reserve now buys $40 Billion/month of worthless bank assets at PAR in QE3. After trillions spent in QE1 and QE2.
Cheap money.
It is what builds prosperity.
Well, it at least makes housing, gold, gasoline, stocks and food more expensive. Isn’t that prosperity?
No new jobs created but who cares? You make thousands of dollars flipping houses! And being a day trader.
We’re still in the first Stage of Grief. Facts do not distract us.
Denial, buddy — grief and despair are postponed until the effects of the hair-of-the-dog hangover cure wear off.
stocks and homes will take you to the glory land.
Homeownership Falls to 1995 Levels
Homeownership in the United States continued to tick downward, hitting its lowest rate in nearly 18 years, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. Here is an explanation.
And Housing Demand Falls to 17 Year Lows
http://www.thenichereport.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Purchase-apps-2012-1024×655.jpg
Inventory is down. Even when you add in the massive shadow inventory, it’s still down.
23 million excess empty houses or 25 million excess empty houses?
A distinction without a difference.
Although I realize it is not a bubble, the Fed’s boot prints are all over this “housing market recovery.” Which I guess explains the perverse juxtaposition of accelerating home prices with falling U.S. hiring and the lowest home ownership rate back to 1995.
ECONOMY
Updated April 30, 2013, 7:40 p.m. ET
Housing Market Accelerates
Home Prices Jump 9.3% in Quickest Rise Since 2006; Gains Seen Across Country
By NICK TIMIRAOS
Home prices are rising at the fastest rate in seven years, with some communities seeing double-digit gains, as buyers are returning to a market where the number of properties for sale is in short supply.
Housing prices are up by double digits in Miami and several other markets over the past year. Here, a prospective sale in Miami earlier this year.
Which Cities Did Best?
Even with the slower winter season, 11 cities posted monthly increases. On an adjusted basis, no city reported a monthly decline. This sortable table ranks the metro areas.
Prices increased 9.3% in February from a year earlier while mortgage-interest rates hovered near record lows, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index that tracks home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas. All 20 cities posted year-over-year gains for the second consecutive month, which hasn’t happened since 2005, before the crash.
In some of the hardest-hit markets, the gains have been particularly heady. Home prices rose 23% from one year ago in Phoenix and 18.9% in San Francisco. Nationally, the median home price in March stood at $184,300, well below the peak of $230,400 in 2006 but up from $154,600 in January 2012.
“Nobody that I’m aware of anticipated the kind of price growth that we’ve had,” said Budge Huskey, chief executive of Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC. “It’s simple supply and demand.”
The Federal Reserve, whose policies have kept rates low, has a lot riding on the housing-market rebound. The encouraging data come as other aspects of the recovery disappoint: Hiring remains patchy and the unemployment rate, at 7.6% in March, is more than 2½ percentage points above where it was when the recession started in late 2007. Consumer-spending data this week, while solid, pointed to some second-half headwinds.
The real-estate market’s brisk rebound also raises concerns among some observers that traditional buyers, facing still-stringent mortgage-lending standards, are being squeezed out because investors are able to make winning bids by offering to pay in cash. Others are concerned that the pace of recent price gains isn’t sustainable.
For now, recent data suggest home-price gains are likely to continue. Sales of previously owned homes rose by 10.3% from one year ago in March, even as supplies of homes for sale fell by 16.8%. The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of market conditions in 28 metropolitan areas showed very low supplies of homes available in a rising number of markets, including a less-than-three-month supply in a dozen markets, including the two hottest—Phoenix and San Francisco.
Supplies have dwindled as banks have pushed fewer homes through foreclosure and because many homeowners are either unable or unwilling to sell due to a variety of factors related to the housing-crash hangover. Meanwhile, demand has picked up as the economy has added jobs, which has boosted household formation. Rising rents and falling mortgage rates have made ownership more attractive.
The housing rebound is also closely tied to the Fed’s campaign to lower interest rates, which has sped along the recovery in two key ways. First, by reducing yields on a range of assets, the Fed has made housing a more attractive investment. Investors of all sizes have been buying homes, often with cash, and converting them into rentals.
Indeed, prices are rising even as the homeownership rate fell during the first quarter to 65%, reaching its lowest level since 1995, according to a separate report Tuesday by the Census Bureau. The report showed that relative to 2004, there were 7.2 million more renters but just 400,000 new homeowners, according to Capital Economics.
Lower mortgage rates spurred by the Fed have also created urgency for traditional buyers, and they have made buyers who take out mortgages more immune to recent price increases. Even with the gains in home prices, housing is more affordable than at any time in the past 30 years because mortgage rates are so low.
…
“Even with the gains in home prices, housing is more affordable than at any time in the past 30 years because mortgage rates are so low.”
____________________________/
This is the kind of thinking that dooms us. When you have to borrow hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy something, it is not “affordable” regardless of the interest rate.
We’re just helplessly stuck in this paradigm.
This is the kind of thinking that dooms us.
It didn’t doom me. But it has for millions of other debt-junkies who run from housing because it’s so radioactive.
Perhaps that is why housing demand has fallen to 17 year lows?
Exactly. And I saw a sign yesterday in Phoenix proper (wish I had snapped a pic), on top of the regular FOR SALE sign said “Best time to buy in 20 years, HURRY”.
Totally. Don’t even stop off to pee first.
And don’t go to the gym; you’ll be homeless!
This news should be good for stimulating further and accelerating home price improvements.
May 1, 2013, 2:30 p.m. EDT
U.S. economy enters another spring swoon
Jobs, manufacturing reports also show fewer companies hiring
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U.S. to pay down debt for first time in six years
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Evidence of another spring economic swoon and fewer people being hired continues to pile up.
A pair of reports released Wednesday showed growth among U.S. manufacturers fell in April to the slowest pace since late last year. And a closely followed employment survey indicated that companies added the fewest number of new workers in seven months.
The negative tone of the latest data, along with some disappointing corporate earnings, tugged U.S. stocks (SPX -0.62%) lower in recent market action. The data also raised the odds of another soft jobs report on Friday, when the government releases the official April employment summary. Read Market Snapshot for market reaction.
Enlarge Image
“These data suggest that we are going through another spring-summer economic slowdown like we have in the past three years,” said Sam Bullard, an economist at Wells Fargo.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday acknowledged the deteriorating economic conditions. “After starting the year brightly, the economy has started to look sluggish in recent weeks,” the central bank said after the end of its regular meeting to set strategy
The softening economy suggests the Fed won’t soon end a massive bond-buying program that’s helping to keep interest rates low.
…
Of course it doesn’t add up.
The news is mostly bullshit.
No other polite way to put it.
U.S. NEWS
Updated April 30, 2013, 7:59 p.m. ET
Survey Finds Slim Pickings in the Housing Markets of a Dozen Cities
By NICK TIMIRAOS
A very low level of homes were for sale in a rising number of markets at the end of March, according to The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of market conditions in 28 metropolitan areas.
At the current pace of sales, there is less than a three-month supply of homes on the market in a dozen housing markets, including Dallas, Atlanta, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Phoenix, Detroit, Seattle and Washington, D.C.
The inventory shortages have created headaches for home buyers, particularly those seeking entry-level properties in markets such as Las Vegas and Tampa, Fla., where investor demand is exceptionally strong. Investors are able to make all-cash offers, winning bidding competitions against buyers who need to obtain a mortgage and must get the home to be appraised at their offered price.
Jason Radke closed on the $180,000 purchase of a home in Surprise, Ariz., last week after agreeing to pay the asking price on the day the home hit the market.
“It’s just crazy here right now,” said the 40-year-old Mr. Radke, who had lost out on four offers last year and four more earlier this year. “Even full-price offers aren’t in the running because an out-of-town investor will pay cash.”
…
Here in Tucson, I’m noticing an uptick in the local resale inventory. Included in this uptick are houses that were previously on the market, but didn’t sell.
I suspect that prices were behind the previous failed sales attempts. Been looking at the prices of some of the re-listings and they still seem high.
“Where you find power you’ll find interests contrary to your own.”
Hmm, didn’t know that. If I drop my keys near power I’ll kick ‘em down the street before I bend over to pick ‘em up.
New month, new gold price crash.
Hope y’all gold bugs were able to lock in some decent gains before the bloodletting resumed.
Bulletin U.S. stock indexes start new month in retreat; Dow industrials off 49 points
Investor Alert
Gold - Electronic (COMEX) Jun 2013
Market open $1,453.70
Change -18.40 -1.25%
Volume 56,685
May 1, 2013, 9:25 a.m.
Previous close $ 1,472.10
Day low $1,451
Day high $1,477
Open: 1,475.60
52 week low $1,322
52 week high $1,803
P.S. Sell in May, go away.
Last updated: May 1, 2013 6:59 pm
Evidence of global slowdown mounts
By FT reporters
Further signs of a slowdown in manufacturing activity and trade clouded the outlook for the global economy on Wednesday after a series of closely watched polls pointed to weakening demand.
Disappointing data added to concerns that growth in the second quarter will disappoint, though analysts continue to expect conditions to improve in the latter half of 2013.
Julian Callow, economist at Barclays, said: “The US and Europe are going through a period of major fiscal adjustment which will continue to weigh on global growth. But I would still expect a stronger recovery in the second half of the year.”
Growth in Chinese manufacturing activity, watched for signs about the health of the Chinese and global economies, slowed in April, following unexpectedly weak first-quarter economic growth. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 50.6 last month from 50.9 in March, though it remained above the crucial reading of 50 that indicates an expansion of activity.
The disappointing reading, led by a drop in new export orders, prompted some analysts to speculate whether it would encourage the government to introduce more policies to boost growth. But others argued that a flood of credit in the economy in the first quarter of 2013 had not helped reinvigorate activity, suggesting Beijing would not be able to stimulate the economy through looser monetary policy.
…
For the man who doesn’t own gold, you are really obsessed with golds. Wonder why?
Because he missed out on the massive appreciation and profit taking?
I’m generally fascinated by speculative manias. That is all.
“I’m generally fascinated by speculative manias.”
Especially when you obliged to pay for the consequences.
There really is nowhere to hide, as the bad gambling debt wracked up by mania participants is routinely dumped on those who tried to stay clear.
Not so sure the gold bug lobby is as substantial as the REICs.
“Not so sure the gold bug lobby is as substantial as the REICs.”
They may not have much of a U.S. lobby, but they certainly have critical mass: How can 2 billion Chindians possibly be wrong?
Because he has fun by tormenting gold bugs.
I think it’s because he didn’t buy gold at $300,400,500,600,700,800,900,1000,1100.1200, but he was thinking about it.
I sold some at $300. And I plan to buy next time it touches that level.
Don’t blow my gig!
Obama to Name Congressman to Lead Mortgage Agency
May 1, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/02/business/obama-to-name-melvin-watt-to-oversee-fannie-and-freddie.html?_r=0
WASHINGTON – President Obama plans to nominate Representative Melvin L. Watt, Democrat of North Carolina, to become the overseer of the government-backed mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac…….
…….Mr. Watt would replace Edward J. DeMarco….
…..If he won Senate confirmation, he would become a powerful economic policy maker, as the housing market recovers and the White House contemplates the government’s future role in it.
Between Fannie, Freddie and other agencies, the government is currently backstopping about nine out of 10 new mortgages, stepping in to foster a functioning mortgage market as the effects of the housing downturn linger. The two financing agencies, which required a massive government bailout in 2008, have returned to profitability and are in the process of repaying taxpayers, who are still owed more than $100 billion.
Thus far, the Obama administration and Congress have shown little interest in restructuring or winding Fannie and Freddie down, lest they disturb the nascent housing recovery. But with the market starting to normalize, what to do with Fannie and Freddie – and what role the government should be playing in the mortgage market more broadly – look certain to become more hotly contested issues.
For months, members of Congress, housing activists and Democratic state attorneys general have campaigned for Mr. Obama to replace Mr. DeMarco, who has blocked an administration proposal to allow underwater homeowners — those who own more on their loans than their house is worth — to reduce the principal on their mortgages.
Such principal reductions could save Fannie and Freddie money by reducing the rate of homeowner default and foreclosure, and many Democrats argue that it would be an important salve for the broader housing market. But the plan might end up costing the taxpayers money, as the Treasury Department would pay increased incentives to Fannie and Freddie to get them to participate.
Mr. DeMarco has argued that he is responsible for protecting taxpayers writ large, and not just for fixing Fannie and Freddie’s books – and thus he has resisted the White House plan. That has stoked liberal frustration with the White House for allowing Mr. DeMarco to remain at the helm of the housing agency.
Mr. Watt looks certain to face a confirmation fight. A prior White House nominee for the position, Joseph A. Smith Jr., a North Carolina banking commissioner, failed to win the support of the Senate. Many Republican members of Congress have expressed skepticism about the principal-reduction plan because it might cost taxpayers money and might make homeowners more likely to default on their mortgages.
Still, Mr. Watt is well known in Congress, and sits on the powerful House Financial Services Committee. He is also known for promoting lending to low-income and minority borrowers, but is not considered unfriendly to banks: financial firms and insurers are among his biggest donors, in no small part because Charlotte, part of which is in Mr. Watt’s district, is a major banking center. Should Mr. Watt fail to win Senate confirmation, the White House could name him as a recess appointment.
I guess Zandi will have time on his hands to keep BS-ing us in the MSM…
More free sh*t for the Free Sh*t Army (FSA).
Now for you renters and people who actually pay your mortgage…
Shut up, get back to work and pay your fair share.
For months, members of Congress, housing activists and Democratic state attorneys general have campaigned for Mr. Obama to replace Mr. DeMarco, who has blocked an administration proposal to allow underwater homeowners — those who own more on their loans than their house is worth — to reduce the principal on their mortgages.
This is going to be very interesting, in the Chinese sense. I supported DeMarco’s refusal for cramdowns on the grounds of moral hazard. Let’s see what these guys come up with.
Meanwhile, there may not be as much moral hazard as we would think:
“House price increases of 10 percent or less would be sufficient for about 40 percent of underwater homeowners to regain positive equity;”
Fed Reserve Governor Elizabeth A. Duke March 8, 2013
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/duke20130308a.htm
‘financial firms and insurers are among his biggest donors’
Sir, the old mortgage mills are on fire.
Get the gasoline tankers, quick!
To understand how Mr. Watt will act, check out his donor profile from Open Secrets
His top career donors are banks. They don’t want principal reductions (cramdowns). Insurance is 6th on his list. They probably don’t want principal reductions. Real estate is 7th on his list. They do want cramdowns. Thus, it seems likely to me he will oppose cramdowns, as his bank plus insurance takes are significantly higher than his real estate takes.
‘They do want cramdowns’
Cramdowns would lower prices.
Anyway, is there still anyone that believes in this stuff? Meanwhile, the banks are getting PAID to refinance their bad loans onto Fannie and Freddie. And the HAMP (etc) refi’s are re-defaulting in large numbers. This is some mighty expensive can kicking.
In a way it’s kinda good. Now Obama can completely own the housing bubble and everything that’s to come. No more dodging the responsibility now!
Would they? The cramdown happens after the sale. So the comp stays high, keeping prices (and commissions) up. The cramdown would be a post-sale deal between the home-debtor and the loan-holder. The NAR magazine advocates cramdowns. I think this is one of those rare situations where the FI and RE interests don’t align perfectly.
“Anyway, is there still anyone that believes in this stuff?”
So far as I can tell, cargo cult thinking about the housing bubble is alive and well. I fully expect it to long outlive the final death throes of the bubble.
He is not an economist, and he has always made a practice of relying on the top minds in the field for his inner circle of advisers.
Why wouldn’t the Democrats shift blame to the economists who came up with the hair-of-the-dog housing collapse cure?
If money buys happiness, what do market crashes buy?
April 30, 2013, 8:01 a.m. EDT
Science: Money makes you happier
No limit to impact of increased wealth on satisfaction, research finds
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By Quentin Fottrell
For those who haven’t won the lottery and have never sold a startup to Yahoo for $30 million, science has long offered a small consolation: At a certain point, earning more money won’t make you happier. But new research debunks such feel-good claims.
There’s no end to how much happier money can make you, according to research to be published in the May 2013 edition of “American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings” by economists Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers, professors at the University of Michigan. “The relationship between well-being and income is roughly linear-log and does not diminish as incomes rise,” the study — Subjective Well-Being and Income: Is There Any Evidence of Satiation? — concludes. “If there is a satiation point, we are yet to reach it.”
…
Its kind of odd that most people work all their lives so they eventually and hopefully dont have to work. Then the hospitals and rest homes squeeze every dime out of you they can.
Only in this country.
They’re getting greedy and trying to squeeze more money out at younger ages.
“Then the hospitals and rest homes squeeze every dime out of you they can.”
The undertaker also takes a sizable chunk of whatever is left.
The undertaker also takes a sizable chunk of whatever is left.
You forgot the taxman.
He’s next in line after the undertaker takes his cut.
90% of All Foreclosures Held Off Market ……..…. And There Are MILLIONS of Them
http://realestate.aol.com/blog/2012/07/13/shadow-reo-as-much-as-90-percent-of-foreclosed-properties-are-h/
I’m about to give up looking for land to build a strip mall/carry out eatery from scratch. Land is just too overpriced. I don’t believe RAL’s “I can buy finished lots for $5k/acre or less” schtick, but everything zoned for commercial/retail use around me is more like $400k/acre. For example: http://baltimore.craigslist.org/off/3717167201.html which is 200k for a little under .5 acres zoned commercial in White Marsh.
On the bright side (yes I am morbid/cynical), there’s a suffering strip mall located about 4 blocks from my house and 4-5 blocks from my parents’ eatery. Has a few open storefronts and is very ugly but has a good location off I-95/895 and lots of parking. I’m going to keep stacking cash and wait for the city to finish road improvements on that block, slated to finish in fall ‘14. Business is going to suffer in the meantime, the road is choked from 3 lanes to 1 in each direction and they’re doing new lighting, new drains, new sidewalks, and replacing the asphalt surface with 10″ thick concrete for better durability. Business is going to suffer for the next 2 yrs so perhaps there will be a firesale price in the future.
Why would you dump money into something there is no demand for?
“Finished” lots?
We’ve got a liar in the house folks.
Finished lots meaning ready to build, as in graded, entrance to a roadway, and gas/electric/water/sewer hook ups.
No demand? Wrong question, the right question is price. Plenty of business to be had in the area, my question is whether I’d be able to get a fire sale price. If not, I move on. Sooner or later I will find something to start stuffing into an IRA at artificially low prices.
Really? Is that what it means?
No demand.
Joe:
Have you considered investing in my new venture? The plan is to increase value by capitalizing on market demands. You in?
I have an ever better opportunity for you, but so incredible that it has to be kept secret:
“a company for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is”
why do so many suckers love the system? Why do they put their faith in something so corrupt?
whats the alternative?
Thunderdome looked pretty awesome.
Master Blaster run Bartertown!
It’s more likely to look like Soylent Green, or a very non-shiny version of Logan’s Run.
man i wish they would remake that movie…”logan’s run” that is.
Cheap and easy money.
And to get rich quick and easy.
Just like Donald Trump.
why do so many suckers love the system? Why do they put their faith in something so corrupt?
Because they believe they might be able to profit from it?
Just like so many poor people think that someday they won’t be poor. I call this the “I know someone who …” syndrome. Almost every lucky ducky type I’ve met has told me that s/he knows someone without any skills who earns a handsome living, and that they too will someday grab the brass ring in the merry go round of life.
Exactly. Because to believe otherwise is to realize what a stupid sucker you’ve been, and people would rather suffer than admit they were wrong.
That’s why we have a long way to go before anything ever gets fixed. It’s going to take a lot more pain to outweigh the embarrassment.
Why I never play the lottery. Billions, literally billions of dollars spent every year on lottery tickets.
Get rich quick and easy without working is the new American work ethic. Or gaming the system.
Doesn’t matter if you are rich or poor.
The poor buy lottery tickets and get gov’t assistance and many stay on it for generations.
The rich call it “investing”. Wall Street is just OTB in a suit.
Get rich quick and easy without
workingjobs is the new American work ethic.The problem is, buying a house makes you poorer. At current massively inflated asking prices, you’ll never get out of the poor house.
I know it’s rough out there, job-wise. But I also know that when I first arrived in SF, WITH a college degree, I cleaned houses, waited tables, drove a cab and took whatever odd job I could.
There are young folks out there who still hustle like that, but I have met more than a few who are just as happy to collect unemployment and hang out in Dolores Park all day.
There are young folks out there who still hustle like that
And always will be I’m sure.
happy to collect unemployment and hang out in Dolores Park all day.
As there were when you were waiting tables I’d imagine.
Just like so many poor people think that someday they won’t be poor. I call this the “I know someone who …” syndrome. Almost every lucky ducky type I’ve met has told me that s/he knows someone without any skills who earns a handsome living, and that they too will someday grab the brass ring in the merry go round of life.
I certainly know a lot of working class people who think that way. That Joe the plumber was a great example of that way of thinking. He was probably making less the $50k/year but he was pissed that Obama was talking about raising taxes on income above $250k. He thought that he would be making that kind of money some day in the future after acquiring his own plumbing business and he was upset that he might have to pay a couple percent more of his income to the IRS. The fact that so many of these J6Ps think this way just benefits the one percenters.
HBB ladies
We have 3 front of the house windows that don’t operate mechanically anymore. There are 3 bird/plane views stationary windows (no grid) higher then them. I would like to go retrofit grid windows below (exterior side shutters already bought) but not sure if the 2 different looks will work, or it will be too busy. Any opinion?
My motif is charming but not tacky country. Adirondack chairs for curb appeal, lots of color, texture, and green variation in landscape.
I’m thinking happy yellow w/ bright white trim for exterior paint at a later date. (When the money tree blooms.)
These 3 new retros will be under $1K installed. 48WX60H Caught a great sale for a high energy product.
Your description makes no sense to me.
^^^^^^^^ LOL
Make a sketch of it on paper or use a graphic design program to modify a picture of your house. Then you will see it looks right.
see IF it looks right
You go knitting club girls!
Each american will have to pay off 50,000.00 in debt owed by the govt plus all the other mortgage debt and credit card debt they have. This latest 5 year party of wall street has cost each american at least 10k each and they dont even realize it.
I bet on avg the american consumer is in debt to the the tune of 200k each.
Sounds to me like it won’t get paid back.
And that’s precisely when the wheels come off.
“Each american will have to pay off 50,000.00 in debt owed by the govt plus all the other mortgage debt and credit card debt they have.”
What percent of Americans even have $50,000 in net worth to tax? Sounds like that debt either won’t get fully repaid, or else will have to come out of Americans’ future paychecks and purchasing power.
SoCal Realtor Charged With Fraud
http://www.courthousenews.com/2013/04/29/57109.htm
this is so common that people simply just shrug it off as business as usual.
A couple of sales that closed last month in the nabe:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3942-Crestone-Dr-Loveland-CO-80537/13887934_zpid/
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3755-Foothills-Dr-Loveland-CO-80537/13887961_zpid/
So far new for sale signs have been few and far between.
Looks like the suckers got screwed pretty bad by the realtors huh?
That neighborhood has a walk score of 17/100. And that three car garage facing the street is ugly. Why do people live in such aesthetically undesirable places? Is it because the schools are “better”, because it’s “for the children” or something?
They want their kids to live far away from the apartment-dwelling loosers who live in those neighborhoods with the high walkability scores.
Oh, and both of those houses sold quickly, especially the cheaper, smaller one. I think it had an offer within a week.
Inflation makes the consumer poorer. It reduces purchasing power. It increases his expenses. This is supposed to make him want to spend more, how exactly?
With no upward wage pressure, and a lot of slack in the job market (see: labor force participation), I don’t see the wisdom in continual wealth erosion.
Inflation does do one thing, it makes debt more palatable. And from everything I’ve seen, getting the populace to take on more and more debt is a primary (unstated) goal of the central bank.
FOMC statement.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
“This is supposed to make him want to spend more, how exactly?”
There is some old wisdom in economics embodied in a concept called the Phillips Curve which suggests an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment, as reflected in the rate of wage increase. To simplify the take home quite a bit, reducing unemployment may entail tolerating higher inflation.
Presumably higher employment would put purchasing power into the hands of more households, though at a cost of eroded purchasing power for other households (esp. those on fixed incomes, like many retirees).
Many macroeconomists concluded the Phillips Curve was soundly refuted by a period of high unemployment and inflation during the 1970s, at least in the view of Friedman and Phelps. I don’t know if saltwater economists generally agree with freshwater Chicago school thinking on this.
I’d heard of the Phillips curve, and am skeptical of it. It seems to me that the driving variable is employment, and the dependent, resultant variable is the resulting inflation. Looking at the Phillips curve, and then concluding that boosting inflation will boost unemployment seems to me to be a classic post hoc ergo propter hoc error.
High inflation I think would drive people to spend more, but as a flight from currency. Low inflation does push people into assets and debt.
Debt lowers the standard of living. For proof, look to the elites. They don’t have debt. They have positive net worths.
“It seems to me that the driving variable is employment, and the dependent, resultant variable is the resulting inflation.”
And it seems to me that both variables are endogenously dependent on the levers the Fed pulls behind the curtain.
I call it financial feudalism.
It’s also known as “wage slave”
But is I see it as more like feudalism. The peasants aren’t exactly your slaves, but there is no other realistic alternative for most of them.
This sounds about right to me. Try not to become a serf in the real-life version of the Game of Thrones currently underway.
May 1, 2013, 6:44 a.m. EDT
New ‘Game of Thrones’ battlefield is America
Commentary: Greed of 7 Shadow Kingdoms is killing souls
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
File photo of a young boy in the Alabama countryside with eroded land behind him during the Great Depression, 1935. REUTERS/Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum/National Archives and Records Administration/Handout (UNITED STATES) BEST QUALITY AVAILABLE.
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Yes, George R.R. Martin’s epic fantasy “Game of Thrones” on HBO has brilliantly captured today’s America, our world being ripped apart by endless civil wars between greed-driven ruling-capitalist families to gain control of the “Iron Throne of the Seven Kingdoms.”
The mythical “Game of Thrones” captures today’s raging battles between capitalism and democracy, the plutocratic kingdoms of the Super Rich, their war chests of billions, high-tech arsenals and their ruthless armies of mercenary lobbyists battling to control billions of citizens, trillions in wealth and priceless natural resources.
Look closely: “Game of Thrones” is America’s alternative history, with Washington as ground zero for the world’s 147 nations in a time warp with the magical continents of Westeros and Essos, where the battles between the Shadow Kingdoms of Capitalism rage on, for our civilization, our planet, all fighting for the Iron Throne.
Today you can feel these two “Games” converging — the metaphoric epic fantasies of Martin’s “Thrones” and the dysfunctional reality of America’s “cryptocracy,” a government where politicians are mere fronts, pawns, puppets for the ruling Shadow Kingdoms that are building a critical flashpoint from the nuclear core of Forbes World 1,000 Billionaires, including Wall Street’s bank CEOs, private equity, hedge fund managers, their armies of high-paid lobbyists and all other special interests getting richer playing a very brutal “Game of Thrones” in Washington.
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anyone know if all the FSBO, foreclosure, and pre-foreclosure listings for an area are for real or current?
the data is only as good as the person inputing it.
What if there is no NOD (notice of default) filed? How many people are living for free and you really have no idea.
I heard you can buy mortgage delinquency data for the credit bureaus for a hefty price.
I think the banks quit filing NOD’s so people wouldnt know how bad it really is.
Oops sorry…meant to say the ones listed on zillow.
This sage advice may come too late to those who tied their fortunes to overweighting in Housing Bubble era real estate investments.
May 1, 2013, 7:00 a.m. EDT
9 steps to surviving the financial apocalypse
By Paul Merriman
Almost every day, people ask what I think about the state of the economy and what investors can do about it.
Plenty of people believe our financial and political systems are broken, run by leaders who have committed fraud, at least indirectly, and who cannot fix things without giving up their gains, relinquishing their power and possibly implicating themselves.
I believe this has been true for hundreds of years. We are just more aware of it today.
Personally, I have no doubt that we are heading for a severe decline that will do major damage to our financial system. I don’t know when it will happen or how it will play out. Will it take a year? A decade? A century?
There’s no way to know, but I believe there is a reasonable chance it will happen in my lifetime. And I think it’s close to a sure thing in my kids’ lives.
So what should investors do? There’s certainly no perfect answer, but I see a lot of people doing what I regard as dumb things. They put all their money into bonds or gold or rental properties. Or they use most of their money to buy fixed annuities. In every case, I think that’s the wrong thing to do.
…
“However, instead of letting supply and demand dictate where and how the markets will trade, the central banks artificially inflate the markets with low interest rates and the purchasing of Treasury bonds. This causes inflation and a wealth effect. The logic behind this method is once people feel better because they see their 401K’s and retirement plans going up they will begin to spend more money and income. The Keynesian system that has been in place for so long can continue to function as it has for so many years. “
“However, instead of letting supply and demand dictate where and how the markets will trade, the central banks artificially inflate the markets with low interest rates and the purchasing of Treasury bonds.”
Works great right up until the point when they finally have to unwind their balance sheet (maybe never?)…
“The conclusion that deflation is always reversible under a fiat money system follows from basic economic reasoning. A little parable may prove useful: Today an ounce of gold sells for $300, more or less. Now suppose that a modern alchemist solves his subject’s oldest problem by finding a way to produce unlimited amounts of new gold at essentially no cost. Moreover, his invention is widely publicized and scientifically verified, and he announces his intention to begin massive production of gold within days. What would happen to the price of gold? Presumably, the potentially unlimited supply of cheap gold would cause the market price of gold to plummet. Indeed, if the market for gold is to any degree efficient, the price of gold would collapse immediately after the announcement of the invention, before the alchemist had produced and marketed a single ounce of yellow metal.”
Works great right up until the point when they finally have to unwind their balance sheet (maybe never?)…
I’m thinking definitely never. What could possibly force them to do so? And if not forced, why would they take on the ill effects of doing so?
that we are heading for a severe decline that will do major damage to our financial system. I
Yawn.
Brazil’s had 3-4 “financial disasters” the past 25 years. They’re still truckin’ and doing the Samba.
“Sustained deflation can be highly destructive to a modern economy and should be strongly resisted. Fortunately, for the foreseeable future, the chances of a serious deflation in the United States appear remote indeed, in large part because of our economy’s underlying strengths but also because of the determination of the Federal Reserve and other U.S. policymakers to act preemptively against deflationary pressures. Moreover, as I have discussed today, a variety of policy responses are available should deflation appear to be taking hold. Because some of these alternative policy tools are relatively less familiar, they may raise practical problems of implementation and of calibration of their likely economic effects. For this reason, as I have emphasized, prevention of deflation is preferable to cure. Nevertheless, I hope to have persuaded you that the Federal Reserve and other economic policymakers would be far from helpless in the face of deflation, even should the federal funds rate hit its zero bound.”
Home prices must go up to keep the system going.
Deflation is your wallets best friend. You’re best friend is gonna stick around a while.
This is very confusing, but I believe if you take away the negative numbers in front of the Treasury yield moves, you get a rough estimate of today’s capital gains for those who own them.
Down is up in the Treasury bond investing arena.
May 1, 2013, 3:40 p.m. EDT
Treasurys pull back on rally after Fed release
By Ben Eisen, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasurys slowed slightly Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced its flexible stance on asset-purchases, but the haven bonds didn’t lose much speed during a sprint into fresh yield lows for 2013.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s release, after two days of regular meetings, noted that it is “prepared to increase or reduce” its quantitative easing program, opening up the option to change its policy without committing to either direction. But while the central back acknowledged weak employment numbers, it made few references to the recent stream of weak data.
“The FOMC could have indicated a change in expectations, but didn’t do that,” said David Glocke principal portfolio manager with Vanguard, noting that the report’s lack of change helped pull back the rally.
The Fed’s ambivalent stance on how it plans to proceed with asset purchases largely amounts to saying, “I don’t know”, according to Jonathan Lewis, chief investment officer of Samson Capital Advisors.
“That is kind of like the President saying he is prepared to go to war, or not go to war, depending on international conditions,” Lewis said, in a note.
The 10-year Treasury (10_YEAR -2.57%) note last traded at 1.631%, after hitting a 2013 low of 1.613%, according to FactSet. Nonetheless, it was still down over 4 basis points on the day. The 30-year bond (30_YEAR -1.77%) yield was down nearly 5 basis points on the day to 2.830%. The 5-year note (5_YEAR -3.83%) was down nearly 3 basis points to 0.652%.
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“When securities in the SOMA portfolio mature, which happens every week with bills and every month for different maturity notes and bonds, the Desk determines whether to reinvest the maturing proceeds into new Treasury debt issued at primary auction, or to redeem the maturing proceeds. Typically the proceeds are reinvested, which would maintain the size of the SOMA portfolio and therefore the size of the permanent reserve-adding nature of the portfolio. Occasionally, due to portfolio guidelines or reserve needs, proceeds are redeemed, which reduces the size of the SOMA portfolio and effectively drains reserve balances from the banking system.”
http://politicalvelcraft.org/2013/05/02/true-unemployment-rate-hits-23-highest-since-great-depression-not-the-obama-lie-of-7-6/
It’s a little skewed to the right but after 5 years of redistribution tactics it’s time to peel back the layers of big government and phony numbers!
Gold is real money
http://lewrockwell.com/orig13/chang2.1.1.html
“Spurred by a sudden drop in prices, Asians in the last two weeks have gone on a gold-buying binge.”
There has never been a better time for dips to buy.
Actors, Directors and Bloody Squibs: Was the Boston Bombing Pure …
http://21stcenturywire.com/2013/04/22/actors-directors-and-bloody-squibs-was-the-boston-bombingpure-pure-hollywood/ - 210k -