Bits Bucket for May 9, 2013
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Traffic is increasing substantially in the Sacramento foothills. This is a sign that the economy is recovering nicely.
In 2009 the freeways flowed nicely without any delays. Yesterday at 2:30 PM there were slowdowns and back-ups on the freeways in both directions. Nothing major, but pinches were occurring. More construction trucks, more tractor-trailers hauling goods, more SUVs with soccer moms headed to the maul.
It is great to see more vitality! The recovery is measurable on many levels and increased traffic is an important one which cannot be denied.
The best part?
Demand for housing continues to collapse in Sacramento. This is what happens when housing prices are massively inflated.
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Sacramento-home-value/r_20288/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D5%26rt%3D8%26r%3D20288%26el%3D0
stocks and homes will take you to the glory land
but cash is king
what ever happened to Combotechie?
Yeah….I haven’t seen him in a while.
He must have gone all in on equities….
“He must have gone all in on equities …”
Just one. Not quite all in but heavily in. The research has been keeping me busy.
QCOR, FWIW.
Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (QCOR)-NasdaqGS
34.71 1.99(6.08%)
upgraded
Don’t know about Combo, but (dollar-denominated) cash seems alive and well as a portfolio component.
May 9, 2013, 2:05 p.m. EDT
Dollar soars above 100 Japanese yen
By Saumya Vaishampayan
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The U.S. dollar USDJPY +1.67% rose above 100 Japanese yen on Thursday for the first time since April 2009. The dollar exchanged hands at ¥100.62 in recent trade.
I wonder how it feels to be a citizen in Japan when your government arbitrarily slashes the value of your money in half in 6 months? On a broader scale Japan has declared a currency war. If you are a US based exporter how do you fight this?
Probably sort of like it feels to be an American citizen that has the Fed arbitrarily slash the value of your money just a little bit, every single year….
I am just quietly saving cash until the real buying opportunities come. If it takes years, so be it.
“pinches were occurring”
You mean like pinching a loaf?
Nice trolling. There’s no way you don’t actually realize that virtually all of the sac region is corn pone white trash.
You come off sounding pretty poor when you write stuff like that. If somebody said:
Nice trolling. I bet where you live everybody sh!ts candy. You’re better than the rest and your own sweat smells the best?
There’s no way you don’t actually realize that you and your friends are arrogant pricks.
to you, how would you take it?
You have to keep in mind, I was responding to an obvious troll so obviously my response was going to be a little unhinged.
“corn pone white trash”
And Jingle Male, you should also realize that Joe is better in every way than all of them, including you. He’s obviously personally met virtually everyone in the sac region, or else an educated person like him would never say such a condescending and judgmental thing about people he doesn’t even know.
I know how to read census information and inland CA has been a perverse interest of mine ever since the housing bubble was picking up.
I used to read a pair of blogs/boards about Casey Serin and it was very eye-opening.
As a student of inland California then, you must clearly understand that given land constraints (cost and availability) along the coast and the inherent undersupply of housing in CA as a whole, that a very high percentage of new development MUST locate inland, which is why a) inland CA has experienced most of the population growth over the prior decades, and b) most projections show this growth continuing for many more decades…right?
As a student of the Census, you must have studied the vacancy rates in places like Stockton, right?
The world revolves around the I-95 corridor. The horror of living outside of the I-95 corridor would be incalculable.
I never said anything like this. I do stand by Sacramento and that part of CA in generally being an armpit. (Which, granted, makes the Jingle schtick even more enraging and effective.)
Median housing prices in Sacramento are also 4x median household income. LOL. Do some googling.
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/09/24/4849862/census-sacramento-household-income.html
Sacramento is also bouyed by state gov’t employees and spending. That is not going to be a growth industry. The sectors around Sac that are adding jobs are almost exclusively Lucky Ducky jobs like customer service/call centers. Perhaps “white trash” was a bit harsh, but if you’ve ever driven through that region or even further down like Stockton/Modesto it really is a vast wasteland.
Actually, the state of California had to lay off a lot of workers since the recession hit. So it’s quite possible that they’ll be hiring again when ever the state economy starts growing again. Also, the article that you linked to stated that the median household income is $55k, which is pretty close to the national median.
Finally, being white trash is really about attitudes and behavior, not wealth or income. Just as America has many poor white trash, we also have plenty of rich white trash.
I see our lying realtor contingent is busy today.
perkonkrusts,
Thank you for your comments. I do understand RAL. I find it sad the HBB is often taken over by a somewhat crass group of offensive closed minded bubblers stuck in 2008. That is why I don’t come here often. It is tiresome and meaningless and dilutes the true value of the HBB.
And we find your constant stream of realtor driven lies and corruption offensive.
I have two brothers that both live in Modesto, and they will be the first to confirm that the whole area is indeed an “armpit.”
That said, there are a few nice, expensive, estate houses around with attached orchards, etc. but they’re in the multi-million dollar range, few, and subject to different market dynamics than housing for joe/jane 6pack.
Plus California’s nanny state makes it highly undesireable in my book. The only positive in my book is that the women are a little nicer and more approachable than in Seattle, but that isn’t saying much.
Haven’t you heard? Anyone who doesn’t live within 25 miles of NYC, LA or Boston is an inbred redneck. It’s true. I read it online.
Don’t forget DC. That’s where everybody who wants to “be somebody” lives.
“more SUVs with soccer moms headed to the maul.”
Maul, indeed.
I think Jingle Male is RAL or someone else trolling. The whole schtick is too over-the-top and sugary to be real.
Too over-the-top and sugary, just like CNBC?
Remember this gem:
“This is the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime” - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, July 2007
Over the top? Like the ‘rebubble’ charade?
You didn’t know its a charade? Really?
I think Jingle Male is RAL or someone else trolling.
Didn’t we discover you posting under Jingle Male’s name recently?
I admit it. I posted something similar to his post from today and I did attempting to stir the pot. I simply can’t believe someone like him is for real.
He’s not a troll. he just plays one on the internet.
I think Jingle Male is RAL or someone else trolling.’
No I think he used to be called “pallidin”
Yeah, he was busy exposing mortgage fraud during the bubble and immediately post-bubble, IIRC. And started buying homes to rent post-crash.
And now he’s underwater with a boatload of debt and negative cap rates.
Smart guy huh?
More real estate investors out and about on the roads around Sac?
If you want a table at Applebee’s you better get there by 10am.
The other thing is that more traffic around Sac makes it an even suckier place to live than without the traffic.
sacramento has the kings still. U should buy a crib in s. sacramento. U get bars on your windows for free.
I can’t believe the other NBA owners blocked the Kings from leaving for a more lucrative market? Can you imagien being the Maloofs and having a buyer lined up to move the team to Seattle and then you get blocked? WTF?!
I could get the bars on my windows far cheaper by purchasing an investment property in the ghetto area of my home town in the Midwest. There is no need to compete with all-cash greater fools to pay ridiculous prices in Sac…
Houses on Seymour Ave, Cleveland 44113 can be had for $30K.
Some of them have bars on the inside of the windows, LOLZ.
“Some of them have bars on the inside of the windows, LOLZ.”
Sounds like anywhere in the state of California.
Take my houses, please.
Got stucco?
Fair Oaks woman seeks someone to take her houses
1:45 AM, May 8, 2013
SACRAMENTO, CA - A local real estate investor will sign over the deeds to a pair of residential properties to anyone willing to take them.
“I’m stuck with them and I don’t want them,” said Marie Gastelum, who was convinced by a friend of a friend to use her good credit to buy three homes in Chicago in 2006 and 2007.
The California state employee said the man overstated her five-figure income on loan applications, allowing her to get more than $1 million in mortgages with no money down.
News10 attempted to contact the man, who appeared to be last doing business in Atlanta until the state of Georgia ordered him to stop working in the mortgage industry without a license.
The rent payments that were promised to cover the mortgages stopped coming after about three months, Gastelum said, and she was forced to declare bankruptcy under mounting debt.
The lenders were granted permission by the bankruptcy court in Sacramento to begin foreclosure proceedings in 2007 and 2008, but only one of them actually followed through and took the house at 5361 S. Princeton Avenue in April 2008.
Cook County public records show Fifth Third Bank and Select Portfolio Servicing in late 2009 formally released their interest in the two remaining homes at 1517 W. 61st Street and 356 W. 45th Street.
The trouble, Gastelum said, is that by the time she learned she still owned the two houses, they’d fallen into such disrepair that one of them had to be demolished.
…
“I’m stuck with them and I don’t want them,”
Join the club lady. There are tens of millions of unwanted and depreciating houses out there. With another 35 million houses on the way.
they only want them if the price is going up!!!!!!!!!!!
Strange…. houses depreciate. I’m not sure why anyone would expect a house to go up in price.
Where do you find people like this?
She doesn’t attempt to collect some rents?
If her two homes were at 1517 W 61st St and 356 W 45th St, that is gangbanger, Afghanistan-is-safer, in short, a horrific part of Chicago.
Great idea, Ms. Gastelum. Next time visit the neighborhood before purchasing…
1000.00 / sq ft in encinitas. so a 10 x10 room that u can see the ocean from is worth 100,000.00.
I dont know about you but I dont have to see the ocean everyday. a couple days in a hotel room per year will suffice.
Plus I can drive to ocean and see it for free anytime I want.
I can see the ocean from work every day “for free.”
I can see the ocean from work every day “for free.”
+1 Envy!
That’s ludicrous, there are nice apartments in high rises on Central Park South that routinely sell for $1000/sq ft. Who are these people paying $1000/sq ft for Encinitas?
azdude
Our nice neighbor just bought a boat w/ a co-worker. (periodic fishing excursions) Another just bought an RV. What a waste of money for J6P. Rent it.
I rented a beach house one summer in my younger years. Got it out of my system. I’m w/ you.
That’s what we liked about our buyer’s broker who owned the firm. He didn’t give a rat a** about image. He drove a Saturn. He drives way to much to own a status vehicle.
Quite money is impressive.
LOL… you of all people saying stuff is a waste of money and renting is the way to go. Wow.
What did you pay for your debt dump?
Paid cash and set for 45 yrs. Can’t rent for what we paid, even w/ the remodel. Break even is in 3 yrs on the remodel and in 14 yrs on rent equivalent . The rest of our lives will be on the cheap. We gutted this joint (friend is a GC), minimal maintenance. Get over it.
We’re in a job corridor of So Ca.
Why are you ducking and weaving from the question Junkie?
What did you pay for your debt-dump?
A cash deal is a debt dump? Explain this.
Our home was a dump and now a
lovely home for life.
Take your meds.
Why are you so afraid of answering a simple question Junkie?
What did you pay for your debt-shack??
A cash deal is a debt dump? Explain this.
Why do you even bother listening to him? Just install the Joshua Tree Extension. It’ll collapse his posts and and any replies under it. You can always uncollapse it if you are curious about the replies to he screeds.
Take your own advice drama queen.
In Colorado
Advice taken. Thanks.
How cute
How do I do the blocking maneuver? I have version 2.1 and I use Firefox.
How do I do the blocking maneuver? I have version 2.1 and I use Firefox.
Right click on his handle (name) and you’ll get a pop up menu that will say “Add Housing Analyst to ignore list”
Nothing bothers a troll more than being ignored.
“Our nice neighbor just bought a boat w/ a co-worker. (periodic fishing excursions) Another just bought an RV. What a waste of money for J6P. Rent it.”
Have you ever checked pricing on renting a boat or RV? Cheapest RV you can find is over $100/day for a bare bones product/ A decent boat is $500-600 a day. And you have to pay tax and insurance on it which is way higher than the cost of insuring a personal boat (think of rental car insurance per day vs. a yearly premium on your own car).
I have a boat and I take it out 15-20 days a year. If I were to rent each time I went out, it would cost me $10K. I bought my boat used for $18K, 3 years ago. I pay $55 a year to register it, $30 a year to register the trailer and $250/year to summerize and winterize. And I take good care of it this boat will last me for decades to come.
There’s nothing that bothers a liar more than being called out.
I have a boat and I take it out 15-20 days a year. If I were to rent each time I went out, it would cost me $10K.
But most people think they will do things 15-20 days a year and end up being lucky to do it once a year.
Mr. Smithers
Cost post noted. However, these guys have a pass-thru employer expense IIRC for entertaining clients and it’s not a small boat. Storage fees at the marina are a killer.
As usual, each circumstance differs, but great info. Thanks.
Smithers = Eddie.
Hi EddieTard…
no chit!
Flushing out turds is fun!
AZDude, your math is incalculable.
1,000 SF is 31.6 x 31.6. 10×10 is 100 SF.
$100,000 for a 1,000 SF is $100/SF.
The loan payment is $450/mon principal in interest.
my math is fine bro. why dont you read a little harder.
I said property in encinitas was going for 1000.00/ sq ft.
So a 10×10 room =100 sq ft * 1000 = 100,000.00
your the only one who couldnt figure it out.
I dont know about you but I dont have to see the ocean everyday. a couple days in a hotel room per year will suffice.
That’s logical. But having grown up surrounded by the Rocky Mountains I’m always a little antsy if I can’t see them. So I can sympathize. But in southern California if you can’t see the ocean your weather probably sucks…so I can see why that would be an even bigger deal for someone who simply can’t imagine living outside of California.
But having grown up surrounded by the Rocky Mountains I’m always a little antsy if I can’t see them
Most people from the beach parts of Rio can’t imagine life without the ocean. Some have to see it every day and can’t contemplate living away from it.
I can live without it, but now that I’m thinking about it, I’m going to take a book and a folding chair there right now. And I think I’ll buy a can of beer from one of the sand strolling vendors. $2.
Thank god it’s Thursday………!
We haven’t noticed any pinchiness on the byways around here. What we have noticed is an increase in aggressive driving on the interstate. We have also noticed an significant increase in empty docks where we live. The state of NY has reduced hours of operation on the canals due to budget constraints. At work, we’ve noticed a drastic reduction in capital projects in China, sustained high building by the Arabs, a dearth of plant construction in the USA, delayed projects in Brazil and sustained high spending by local (US) governments on infrastructure.
Infrastructure spending in our area has been used poorly.
Lots of busy work and no solution to gridlock. I wish So Ca had more light rail. LA’s subways are great, they need above ground rail all over the place. I am so sick of parking lots for roads. Don’t even get be started…
Where do all these folks in the Middle East get the water for these high rises?
I’m interested in how the Silver Line (subway/rail) is going to change Northern Virginia.
You’re a “chemist”… right? That’s your line. So you should know. Go ahead. You have 3 chances to get it right.
You think this why?
The silver line is just an extention of the orange line (I think) with a different terminus. I really don’t think it’s going to be that big of a deal.
The Silver Line follows Route 7 and the Dulles Toll Road, which is one of the busiest traffic corridors in the nation. The line will connect with Tyson’s Corner Mall and Dulles Airport.
The silver line will reduce/eliminate an incredible amount of car traffic, parking, tolls, lucky duckies crossing busy streets, overcrowded bus routes, “slugging,” and other commuting horrors, and make Dulles Airport more accessible.
oxide
Thanks for the info. When we are in the area, I will refer back to your post. I saved it.
delayed projects in Brazil
A delayed project in Brazil is actually right on schedule.
Hey, Jingle! A few months ago, you posted about your Oooma VoIP phone service. Would you still recommend it?
Reason for the question: The bill from my current VoIP provider is approaching what I used to pay the RBOC.
FBI:Realtor Makes Child Porn
http://bocanewsnow.com/2013/03/06/arrested-again-fbi-says-boca-realtor-goldberg-made-child-porn/
I wish they would draw a distinction between someone like this who is fooling around with girls who would be totally legal in such far away places like CANADA, and the REAL sick f@cks going after little kids.
To put the guy who does a seventeen year old party girl and her friend in the bathroom in the same category as the sickos who prey on single-digit aged kids does a real disservice to the victims.
Taking pictures makes it worse, but to put it in the same category as some of the true child exploitation out there is wrong. How about instead of “child pornographer” we call him an “underaged teen pornographer?”
Bill bennett and i don’t agree often, but we are pretty close on this…
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2013/0507/Former-Ed-secretary-Only-4-percent-of-colleges-worth-the-money.-Families-Pick-value
Bennett says only 4 percent of colleges are worth the cost. If anything, i think he’s actually a little generous with the 4.
From the article:
“One reason: The lure of going to the best school remains strong. In the most recent survey by the University of California at Los Angeles of nearly 200,000 new college freshmen, academic reputation was the top factor in picking a school. But cost of attendance was characterized as “very important” by 43.3 percent of students – that factor’s highest mark to date.
The data is still a little skewed, especially in regard to loans. At Florida State University, for instance, the net price is $12,464 and the median monthly loan payment is $215.78. At Harvard, the net price is $6,000 higher, but the monthly loan payments are lower, at $88.61, presumably because fewer students take out federal loans. Schools with a high dropout rate can also look like a better deal because fewer students accumulate a full four years of debt.”
One way to look at this — Once you realize that the top schools graduate almost everyone, it is even more amazing that students actually pay less to go to the very top schools than their peers pay to go to State U. (Graduation from very top schools is nearly 100%, whereas it is far lower at state universities.)
At Florida State University, for instance, the net price is $12,464
Is this per semester, year or 4 years? I’m guessing that it’s for a year, which is pretty stiff for a State U. My kids are paying $5K per year at their school.
Say what? A quick Google search shows that full freight tuition at Harvard is $37K. Granted, few pay full freight, but the same is true at State U’s.
The question is what “net” price is. Guessing it is something like overall costs less average (or median) scholarship amount. Might also subtract out authorized work/study grant (guaranteed job at $x an hour somewhere on campus).
I think Harvard is in the group of schools that followed Princeton in guaranteeing they would provide enough scholarship aid so that students whose family income was less than some amount (originally $50K I think, but then it went up) wouldn’t have to take out any loans. Of course their definition of what the family can afford to pay might not conform with that the family thinks it can pay which means the students still might end up with loans, but these schools are providing a LOT of need based scholarship money to students who can get in and whose parents aren’t upper middle class or wealthy.
Agreed, but most “po’ kids” can also go free to state, between Pell grants and others. It’s only middle class kids who have to borrow up the wazoo, especially if they attend a private school.
My daughter, who is graduating this weekend, had offers of 50% scholarships from private schools, which meant that it still would have cost $20K per year, plus R&B. She got her 4 year degree from the State U for about 20K total, and that included a semester abroad.
Yes, Harvard and a few other schools followed Princeton after P announced a “no loans” policy regarding financial aid.
For these schools, any tuition is superfluous. They could operate and expand (as they have been) without any need for tuition whatsoever. They get their money from massive endowments and research money/patents. And when they build, donors climb over themselves to put their names on any aspect of the building. A few, like Meg Whitman, contribute enough to build an entirely new residential college so Princeton could add a couple hundred students per class year.
How much of all this includes room and board?
When I went to Cheapish Private School in the late 80’s, it was $18K/year all told. When I went to State School U in the early 90’s, tuition-only was $800/semester. When I went to Other State School in the late 90’s, undergrads were paying ~$10-11K/year including an on-campus apartment (no meal plan).
They include room and board in the calculations. That is part of the cost of going to the school. My recollection is that they also include an estimate of the cost of of books and other supplies, minimal spending money and two trips home per year (even though most students travel home more than that).
Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Stanford and a few others do not want students or parents taking ANY loans. Whenever you fill FAFSA out, they limit your parental contribution to whatever that says. They do not want students taking out loans to make up the difference.
This is why it is infinitely better to get into/attend a top college than a state U if you are actually from middle or lower class parents. The top school will cost less than the state u. (Granted, when I say top school I mean very top school, the cream of the cream.)
Must be a recent change. I went to one of those schools and I needed to take out loans.
This applies to majors as well. If you’re getting an education degree, get it from the cheapest college you can find. Your pay as a teacher will be the same whether you went to a $40k/year private liberal arts college or a $10k/year State U.
Texas A&M?
Whats’ with these big motorcycles , that make everyone’s Alpha Male traits shine forth.
If Motorcycles were invented today, they would be outlawed as a menace on the roads,which they usually are .
That said, I Think I’ll go dust off my old 78″ 500 Honda , and go smell the spring air……
It’s overweight 35+ year old transvestite, exhibitionist slobs wanting to be bad-asses dressed up like the Village People on their 2 wheeled rolling mortgages.
35+? More like 55+. I think you get a free Harley with every AARP membership.
And don’t forget the dried up old skank on the back.
Leather is OK, but not on the face of your dried up old skank.
LOL!
Most motorcycle drives (esp the ones with “chopers”) are the antithesis of alpha males. They’re mostly wretched refuse/WT’s.
Try finding motorcycles in places full of alphas like Greenwich CT, Bridgehampton NY, or Bethesda MD. Good luck!
The world revolves around the I-95 corridor. The only thing between the I-95 corridor and the California coast is a flyover wasteland of slack-jawed yokels who have committed the unspeakable travesty of not going to Princeton.
Again, this isn’t what I said. I’m just saying that being an alpha male means you’re in control of your destiny and of have a command of some resource(s). These are not the guys you find buying a high powered motorcycle for the most part.
I get it now. You mean those harpsichord playing, symphony attending alpha-males like yourself.
Thank you for the clarification.
I find it humorous that you think anyone who enjoys classical music must be a shrinking violet.
Someone should’ve introduced you to Wagner or Mahler (among others) in your impressionable years.
Don’t you have a symphony to attend? Do you wear your tunic to the symphony? Ballet slippers? How about your leotard? Do you wear that in public too?
No but I am orchestrating a comic opera I’m calling Realtordammerung.
Don’t most serial killers love classical music?
Or, is it just in the movies?
I’m just saying that being an alpha male means you’re in control of your destiny and of have a command of some resource(s).
Hmmm … I always thought that the Alphas were the guys that always got the babes and never got shoved into the “friend box” and the income was not part of the equation.
These are not the guys you find buying a high powered motorcycle for the most part.
I seem to recall that Malcolm Forbes was a biker. FWIW, I know more than a few management types who have a Harley and or a Corvette in their garage.
‘and when he pulls his frilly nylon panties right up tight, he feels a dedicated follower of fashion’ - the kinks, 1966
My recollection is that serial killers are overwhelmingly white males in their 30s with above average intelligence. Doesn’t make them all classical music lovers, but it makes it likely that some of them would be.
“My recollection is that serial killers are overwhelmingly white males in their 30s”
Yes and no.
“Only a few systematic accounts of the race and ethnicity of serial killers exist. There is an exhaustive study of African American serial killers (Homicide Studies 2005; 9; 271) by criminologist Anthony Walsh, and also Eric W. Hickey’s book, Serial killers and their victims, Brooks/Cole, 1997. Walsh identified 90 African American and 323 white American serial murderers, all men operating between 1945 and 2004. (Though Asians, Hispanics and Native Americans were not included in the study, their addition would not alter the fact that most serial killers are white men.) African American serial killers made up 22% of Walsh’s sample, a figure in close agreement Hickey’s enumeration. But, as blacks number well below 22% of the U.S. population, they are actually overrepresented among the ranks of serial killers — roughly by a factor of 2.”
How is 78% not an overwhelming majority?
Try finding motorcycles in places full of alphas like Greenwich CT, Bridgehampton NY, or Bethesda MD. Good luck!
Different subcultures have different definitions of alpha. The “alphas” in the places you mention must stay in those places if they want to be treated as alphas. I liked how the subject was covered humorously in the movie Crocodile Dundee in multiple locations.
Most motorcycle drives (esp the ones with “chopers”) are the antithesis of alpha males. They’re mostly wretched refuse/WT’s.
The South Park guys did a wonderful episode on Harleys and their owners. Very apropos.
Alphas don’t need to announce the fact - it’s self evident. Anything else is AFC (average frustrated chump).
ISTR that Malcolm Forbes kept a permanent residence in Greenwich — along with his Harleys….
You should see the South Park episode about large and loud motorcycles.
It’s useless to go down to the Mall for Memorial Day anymore. Fleets of cycles circle (or, more accurately, rectangle) the mall all weekend. I can’t hear myself think.
Anymore? Rolling Thunder has had that parade/march(roll)/demonstration/whatever for decades, I think. And a lot of them are Vietnam vets, which makes Memorial Day all about them and their friends who died (and the other veterans and service members who died). It isn’t about having a long weekend. You don’t have to come out to watch them, but complaining about it isn’t very polite.
Personally, I prefer the Marine Corps Band concert at Wolftrap followed by fireworks sponsored by USAA, but not sure if I will go this year. The orange line is going to be a mess and driving home from Wolftrap is a pain.
I’m not going to be making a trip to DC this spring, but when I do, I’ll look you up. I love your descriptions of local events.
Slim, you aren’t looking me up. You are staying with me. My aerobed is your aerobed and all that, though my last house guest preferred the sofa. I’m expecting you in the fall for the fotodc thing, right? Though if you have to put it off because of this dental issue, you will be welcome whenever I am home. Just give me some advance notice.
I’m sorry Polly, but I guess we have to disagree. I like to honor people in some modicum of peace and quiet, so that I can think about their service. At the WWII, at the Korean, at the amphitheatre in Arlington, and yes, at the Wall. Parades and protests and marches I understand. But revving hundreds of motorcycles for 72 hours straight just doesn’t seem to foster an environment of contemplation or remembrance.
[and to be honest, it's kinda funny that you berated me for complaining, and then yourself complained about driving home from Wolf Trap. I guess you don't have to come out to watch the Marine Corps Band?]
I said, you don’t have to watch any of it if you don’t want to. I avoid most of those sights on Memorial Day, Veterans Day and Fathers Day because they are already crowded with people who don’t live here and for whom a visit on that particular day is hugely meaningful. There is no need for me to get in their way. I can visit my cousin’s name on the Wall or any of the other places at other times.
But it isn’t my right to tell a bunch of people who actually fought a war how they should or shouldn’t remember their comrades. Their memories. Their pain. Their choice. If they want to make a lot of noise on motorcycles, so be it. They are also a lobbying organization trying to get Congress to do various things in support of POW/MIA issues. That noise is the noise of a group trying to get Congress to pay attention to their concerns. One of the few groups who can do it without primarily serving the rich and powerful.
for anyone who hasn’t seen the south park episode, they call bikers ‘fags’. which is a gay slur but they don’t mean gay.
that’s funny like aids.
The labor market recovery is gathering steam, suggesting the Fed may exit from QE3 “sooner than expected.”
May 9, 2013, 8:30 a.m. EDT
Jobless claims hit lowest level since 2008
By Ruth Mantell
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The number of people who applied for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits ticked down 4,000 to 323,000 in the week ending May 4, hitting the lowest level since January 2008, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected initial claims to rise slightly to 335,000 from an original estimate of 324,000 for the prior week, echoing softness in other recent labor-market data. Recent readings on initial claims signal little change in the pace of layoffs. The four-week average of new jobless claims fell 6,250 to 336,750, hitting the lowest level since November 2007, near the start of the recession. The government also reported Thursday that continuing claims for jobless benefits dropped 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.01 million in the week ended April 27, reaching the lowest level since May 2008. The four-week average of these claims from people already receiving benefits fell 24,500 to 3.03 million, the lowest since June 2008.
If the FED exits QE who is going to buy all the US treasuries to finance the deficit so the govt can keep spending and propping up the economy?
i might..if the rate on the 10 year was around 5 or 6 percent…but that would mean economic calamity.
If you are around three decades from now, you may have a chance…meanwhile, if you can figure out a way to invest in, say, Italian, Portugese, Irish, Greek or Spanish sovereign debt, you can probably find your 5 or 6 percent yields. And closer to home is the junk bond market. Those high yields are out there if you look in the right places.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-08/junk-debt-drops-below-5-yield-first-time-record
found me some yield!
Here ya go…
Greece wants to return to bond market after massive rally
May 9, 2013, 1:34 PM
Greece, long-time pariah of the global bond markets, finally has some positive news to share. Greek government bond yields are at their lowest levels since the nation defaulted on its debt last year as part of its restructuring package. Around this time in 2012, the yield on 10-year bonds was getting ready to hit 30%, but it has steadily fallen to a low of 9.523% Thursday, according to TradeWeb data.
With that feather in its cap, Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournarasis said Thursday he is hoping Greece can return to the bond markets in 2014, following in the footsteps of its recession-ravaged brethren, Ireland and Portugal, Reuters reported. Greece has been locked out of the bond markets since 2010.
The drop in yields–which goes hand in hand with a rally in prices–is apparent across the euro-zone periphery, reflecting the promise of Outright Monetary Transactions, the European Central Bank’s program to support struggling euro-zone countries through bond purchases, said Fergus McCormick, head of sovereign ratings at rating agency DBRS. Yields were also helped along by comments from ECB President Mario Draghi last week indicating the central bank could take actions to spur lending to small and medium enterprises, McCormick added.
…
Greece, long-time pariah of the global bond markets, finally has some positive news to share. Greek government bond yields are at their lowest levels since the nation defaulted on its debt last year as part of its restructuring package.
“Positive” news? For a debt junkie, perhaps. Sheesh.
yeah there might be some real demand at higher yields but we all know what that does to home equity.
Homes and stocks will lead you to riches unimaginable.
the riches are certainly imaginable, albeit incalculable
That’s a conundrum of which I am certain they are aware. One way out of it is to keep jawboning QE3 more and more loudly as the true exit date approaches; a second is to announce an earlier exit date than they intend to actually employ; a third is to simultaneously announce a QE3 exit with some other previously-unmentioned plan to buy Treasurys (”not QE3″); a fourth is to roll out QE3 in a series of incremental waves, rather than as a cliff dive; a fifth way is to start the exit very gradually, before the announcement, and only make the announcement when it is already half-gone.
Given the many possible ways to smooth out the QE3 exit, I wouldn’t get my undies in a bunch about it.
P.S. Somebody would buy the U.S. Treasurys if they exited today; the problem would be the jump in yields required to clear the market, and the ensuing crash in asset prices (housing, stocks, gold, etc.) and rise in the dollar which would result.
What is the current US govt deficit?
The way the economy has showed any signs of life is for the govt to keep spending money they didnt have.
Since no one else wants all these treasuries at these yields the FED has been buying them and allowing the over spending to continue.
Seems to me the only way for QE to really end is to cut govt spending or raise taxes substantially.
If the FED quits buying how will the govt pay its bills at current levels?
The real problem is too much spending.
“The real problem is too much spending.”
Your implied “solution” would kick the economy back into the worst days of the Great Recession. Just sayin’…
I hear you. so the only real solution is to keep doing QE and hope the economy picks up someday.
If you pull away the easy money then the govt cant pay its bills.
also since the demand for treasuries would tank interest rates would go up and destroy the housing recovery and stock market rally.
The printing has to continue. Also each new QE will get larger.
“so the only real solution is to keep doing QE and hope the economy picks up someday.”
I’m pretty skeptical that the economy can recover under the distortions caused by QE.
“The printing has to continue. Also each new QE will get larger.”
QE will work, until it doesn’t.
Western economies strike me as being like a long term alcoholic with a liver is starting to fail, and trying to figure out if it’s better to stop drinking or not.
It isn’t really important that QE “work”. What is important is that the US is left standing when our trading competitors/partners have collapsed.
Let’s say they actually “succeed” and somehow growth catches us back up and no paying of the piper has to occur on this cycle. Just imagine what they’re going to be willing to do next time to avoid any pain. This can’t go on forever.
“Just imagine what they’re going to be willing to do next time to avoid any pain.”
This IS the next time already.
Way six that I forgot to mention earlier:
Stimulate or otherwise encourage a ginormous stock and real estate market rally to far above fundamental value before taking away the QE3 punch bowl. When it is taken away, let the asset markets correct back towards fundamental value, triggering a flight-to-quality move into Treasurys.
This would be a handy way to keep a lid on long-term rates in the absence of quantitative easing. This dynamic seemed to be in play after the Fall 2008 financial collapse, though I have a feeling it was by accident more than design that time around.
Seeking Alpha
Can China Experience A Financial Panic?
William Gamble
May 9 2013, 11:16
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Mr. Zhang Ke is worried. Mr. Zhang is the vice-chairman of China’s accounting association. He and his firm audit the books of Chinese local governments. According to Mr. Zhang the debts of the local governments are is “out of control” and could spark a bigger financial crisis than the US housing market crash. In a way this is not news. The only thing that is news is that a senior Chinese figure is talking about it. But if China’s debts are so big, why doesn’t it spark a panic?
Mr. Zhang’s assessment of the Chinese debt situation has a lot of company. The IMF and the rating agencies have all flagged the issue. Recently Fitch cut China’s sovereign debt rating, the first such cut since 1999. A rare downgrade in a world where many emerging markets are seeing more optimistic outlooks.
China’s debt problems have been around since the recession of 1999. To avoid a recession in 2009, the Chinese government opened the monetary flood gates by forcing the banks to make loans and lend they did. Most of the money went to provinces, cities, counties and villages for various projects. The problem with financing projects with bank loans rather than taxes is that the projects have to generate sufficient income to service the loans. According to Mr. Zhang this is not happening. The local governments were not paying back the loans are just rolling them over. “The only thing you can do is issue new debt to repay the old,” he said.
Like the US Federal Reserve, this type of stimulus has been going on for the past 4 years. The pile of debt is now quite high. It is estimated to be between Rmb10tn and Rmb20tn ($1.6tn and $3.2tn), equivalent to 20-40 percent of the size of the Chinese economy. It hasn’t stopped. Despite the questions over solvency, the hunt for yield has allowed the local governments to issue Rmb283bn of bonds in the first quarter of 2013. This is more than double the total for the same period last year. In theory local governments are prohibited from issuing bonds. But thanks to investment companies, a financial innovation designed to get around the restrictions, they have been flooding the market.
…
Filthy-rich Chinese, Tazmanian, Brazilian, Hedge Fund, Russian, Indian, Albanian, North Korean, Greenland and (**insert latest Realtor meme here**) investors will save us all. Unspeakably powerful, flush with cash, shitting gold bars and dripping with huge diamonds, rubies and and other precious gemstones, these juggernauts of modern wealth criss-cross the globe in their fiat-fueled land yachts, snapping-up every available piece of property in (**insert local Realtor MSA here**).
Can so many smart guys all pursuing exactly the same clever investing strategy all be right?
My inner ursine has serious doubts.
University Endowments Trim Holdings in US Treasurys
Thursday, 9 May 2013 | 3:03 AM ET
By: Henny Sender
Barry Winiker | Photolibrary | Getty Images
Princeton University
Some of the smartest money in America is getting out of US government debt.
Many university endowments have scaled back their holdings of Treasury securities from as much as 30 per cent in 2008-09 to zero in some cases, say people familiar with their investment strategies.
The sell-off reflects a big change in the way fund managers view US government debt. The traditional attraction of Treasurys for US investors was that they were certain to be repaid. But with interest rates at such low levels, investors worry that bond prices could fall dramatically.
“Treasurys were a core holding,” said one university fund manager. “Now everyone is holding less than 5 percent.”
The fear on campuses is that universities, which profited in recent years from the rally in Treasury prices, could be caught flat-footed by a reversal of the Federal Reserve’s low interest-rate policy.
“If you think you can change allocations quarter by quarter, and you believe rates will be low for longer, and you think you can make a quick switch, then maybe it is OK,” the university fund manager said. “But that isn’t the way we invest. Today government bonds should come with a warning about interest rate risk.”
Princeton’s $17 billion endowment has converted its Treasury holdings to cash, according to published reports. Duke’s $5.5 billion endowment has also shifted from Treasurys to U.S. stocks with high dividends and emerging market equities, a person familiar with the university fund said.
Last week, Cornell’s $5 billion endowment decided to reduce its investments in Treasury securities to just over 3 percent of assets.
…
What I wonder is whether these pessimists have considered the potential upside of still-lower Treasury yields than we currently see. If my calculations are correct, then with a 30-year Treasury yield of around 3%, there is still more than a 50% potential nominal gain between here and a yield of 0%. And the real value of that could be still greater in case of deflation.
RED ALERT!
“Everything” on the Marketwatch “Markets” screen flashed red on the opening bell this morning:
Markets »
Price Chg %Chg
Dow 15,102 -4 0.03%
Nasdaq 3,408 -5 0.15%
S&P 500 1,631 -2 0.10%
GlobalDow 2,218 -10 0.45%
Gold 1,461 -13 0.86%
Oil 95.96 -0.68 0.70%
So far it looks like the PPT is doing what it can to keep the headline U.S. stock market indexes propped up at their opening bell levels, while letting commodities prices take the adjustment.
I.e., business as usual…however, the negative numbers across the board are telling, suggestive of a race to the exits in anticipation of a near-term QE3 exit announcement (or even mere discussion thereof in the Fed’s meeting minutes).
Was the dire predicted economic impact of the sequester the biggest political strawman ever created?
Pre-Market Indications | Analyst Ratings
Futures: S&P 500 -0.1% DOW -0.1% NASDAQ -0.2%
Little sign of sequester pain in latest jobless claims
Don’t worry, there will be another drama to embrace by the time you catch your breath.
How would the U.S. economy be affected if China decided to tighten up monetary policy to control inflation?
May 9, 2013, 9:15 a.m. EDT · CORRECTED
U.S. stock futures drop after record run
Barnes & Noble, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters shares rally
By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch
Editors Note: A previous version of this report gave the wrong month for Costco’s monthly sales. The story has been corrected.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures on Thursday tallied slight losses after five sessions of record highs for the S&P 500 index, as data showed a decline in U.S. jobless claims and a rise in Chinese inflation.
The Labor Department reported jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 323,000 in the week ending May 4, defying expectations for a rise. Data on wholesale inventories for March are due at 10 a.m. Eastern.
Futures for the Dow industrials (DJM3 -0.04%) dropped 11 points to 15,051 and those for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index (SPM3 -0.05%) fell 2 points to 1,626.70.
Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index (NDM3 -0.19%) fell 6.25 points to 2,955.50.
Gold and oil prices furthered their fall after the claims report, with gold futures for June delivery (GCM3 -0.70%) off $10.70 at $1,463.10 an ounce and crude for June delivery (CLM3 -0.52%) slipping 55 cents to $96.07 a barrel.
“I think what we’re seeing today is investors taking a breather following five days of strong gains in U.S. equities,” said Craig Erlam, market analyst at Alpari U.K., in emailed comments. “U.S. futures are pointing to a lower open, but it is only marginal.”
Global markets traded lower after data from China showed a 2.4% annual rise in consumer prices in April, led by a 4% gain in food prices. Analysts had expected a 2.2% gain. Chinese stocks fell, while European markets slipped on the heels of that data. Wholesale inflation in China fell by the most since October.
Investors have been keenly watching China’s economy for signs of rising inflation that could prompt officials to try and cool demand.
“Should this happen, then the consequences will likely be played out on a global basis, but given the overshoot was so limited, the caution may be somewhat exaggerated by the fact markets are simply looking a bit toppy at these levels,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market strategist at GFT Markets, in a note.
…
have you ever been into harbor frieght tools? If you never have you should go roam around in there for about 20 minutes. Chinese product galore and it is a telling story in there.
And they’re cheap tools that wear out quickly.
Yes, but they can still be a good deal if the prices are low enough.
Did you ever notice investors’ annoying tendency to crow about their genius when asset prices go up and play mum when they go down?
John Paulson on his gold losses: What losses?
May 9, 2013, 3:59 AM
What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas. Right. So maybe cellphones were scooped up and reporters banned, but that didn’t prevent a few accounts of a closed-door chat between billionaire hedge-fund manager John Paulson and SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci leaking out in the wee hours of Thursday.
There was no deep discussion of the 47% drop so far this year for Paulson’s $500 million Gold Fund, nor any mention of the tough times that Paulson and Co. has been seeing amid some of the biggest losses this year in the hedge-fund industry, according to reports.
…
Success has many fathers, failure is a bastard son. Old proverb!
when are you going to take profits on your homes?
Make sure to exit before QE3 is ended, or else prepare to watch them evaporate…
Crater. You mean craaaaaaattttttttteeeeerrrrr!!11
Every month. I get $3000/month now and $4000/month in principal reduction. They have been very solid investments….even excluding the $600,000 in appreciation this year.
And you couldn’t find a buyer for a small fraction of what you got in them.
Your window of opportunity will soon close. (I offered a work associate similar advice on his SoCal “real estate investing portfolio” circa 2006, which he ignored and ridiculed behind my back.)
May 9, 2013, 9:47 a.m. EDT
Foreclosures point to a real housing recovery
The April news on home foreclosures helps put housing on a solid foundation. Joan Doniger spoke with RealtyTrac’s Daren Blomquist who says foreclosures fell to a 6 year low last month.
Of course they’re falling. There are foreclosure moratoriums in effect from coast to coast.
The housing recovery is REAL — just like global warming is!
Success has many braggarts, failure has none. New proverb.
LMAO!
“Success has many fathers, failure is an orphan.” — proverb
Bloomberg article about the “next Tea Party rant”.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-08/tea-party-rant-ii-awaits-next-homeowner-bailout.html
(selected quote)
“Mortgage modification of any kind comes with moral hazard attached. It rewards those who binged on too much debt to buy too much house. Principal forgiveness takes it to another level, especially when it’s imposed by the government, with the taxpayer footing the bill.
Both supporters and opponents of principal reduction have a legitimate fairness argument. The pro case goes something like this: Banks got bailed out based on the idea that helping Wall Street benefits Main Street. (Main Street is still waiting to see that benefit.) By the same logic, helping homeowners get out of debt may speed the economic recovery.
The con argument is as follows: Many underwater homeowners are trying their best to stay current on their mortgages, in some cases working two jobs to make ends meet. Why should delinquent borrowers, whether by choice or necessity, have their debt reduced? It lessens the incentive for those who are current to keep paying.
“We have done so many things that are offensive to taxpayers and citizens and that create moral hazard in so many ways and in so many places,” said Michael Carliner, an economic consultant specializing in housing. “This would be just another one.”
That’s one way to look at it. Another is that the market is fixing the problem by itself. By the time a new federal program is approved and implemented, and the kinks are worked out, it may be unnecessary.
Watt is far from a shoo-in for FHFA director. Some Republicans have called him unfit for the job based on his opposition to measures that would have strengthened Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac back in 2005. If he is approved by the Senate, expect the usual hue and cry from those who say debt forgiveness is promoting bad behavior.
Rick, are you ready to rant? “
common sense and fair.
My Personal Credit Crisis
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS
Published: May 14, 2009
If there was anybody who should have avoided the mortgage catastrophe, it was I. As an economics reporter for The New York Times, I have been the paper’s chief eyes and ears on the Federal Reserve for the past six years. I watched Alan Greenspan and his successor, Ben S. Bernanke, at close range. I wrote several early-warning articles in 2004 about the spike in go-go mortgages. Before that, I had a hand in covering the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the Russia meltdown in 1998 and the dot-com collapse in 2000. I know a lot about the curveballs that the economy can throw at us.
But in 2004, I joined millions of otherwise-sane Americans in what we now know was a catastrophic binge on overpriced real estate and reckless mortgages. Nobody duped or hypnotized me. Like so many others — borrowers, lenders and the Wall Street dealmakers behind them — I just thought I could beat the odds. We all had our reasons. The brokers and dealmakers were scoring huge commissions. Ordinary homebuyers were stretching to get into first houses, or bigger houses, or better neighborhoods. Some were greedy, some were desperate and some were deceived.
As for me, I had two utterly compelling reasons for taking the plunge: the money was there, and I was in love. It was August 2004, just as the mortgage party was getting really good. I was 48 years old and eager to start a new chapter in my life with Patricia Barreiro, who was then my fiancée
(fast forward)
Despite the obvious red flag of applying for a Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell loan, I wasn’t paying that much for the money. The rate on my primary mortgage of $333,700 was a remarkably low 5.625 percent for the first five years, though my monthly payments would probably jump substantially after the fifth year. On top of that, I was paying a much higher rate of 8.5 percent on my “piggyback” loan for $80,300. Even so, I would be paying slightly more than $2,500 a month for the first five years. It would get expensive eventually, but I could worry about that later.
“Don’t worry,” Bob reassured me, saying what almost everybody else in real estate was saying at that moment. “The value of your house will be higher in five years. You’ll be able to refinance.”
(Ob-La-Di, Ob-La-Da)
The icy slap of reality hit me two weeks after New Year’s Day in January 2005. We had been living in our new house for five months. I walked out of The Times’s Washington bureau, several blocks from the White House, and crossed Farragut Square to my bank. I had a bad feeling about what the A.T.M. would reveal about my balance, but I was shocked when I looked at the receipt: $196. We were broke.
My stomach churning, I reached Patty on her cellphone as she was running errands. “We are out of money,” I snapped, skipping over any warm-up chat.
“What do you mean, we’re out of money?” she asked in bewilderment.
“I mean, I just checked my bank account, and we are out of money,” I repeated, my voice rising in panic. “We can’t buy anything!”
(skip down to some more crazy adventures)
“I can’t believe you are doing this to me on my birthday,” she hissed in fury. “All I asked for was one day of peace — one day when you weren’t beating me over the head. And here it is, not even daylight yet, and you’re waking me up to berate me about money.”
In the morning, she let me have it.
“You lied to me,” she told me as I got coffee. “You said that what I saw on the outside was pretty much what you were. But you’re completely different. If I had known what you were really like, I would never have come out here.”
(bah blah blah)
When I first called Chase in October, a representative named Sarah said I didn’t qualify for a loan modification because I wasn’t yet 90 days past due. The only “loan modification” she could offer me was a “repayment plan” under which I paid $400 more per month for six months until I was current again.
“It sounds as if I would be better off waiting to fall 90 days behind,” I said. “I think I’ll wait for that.”
I called Chase back in January, when I was 90 days past due. Another representative told me that I would automatically be evaluated for a loan modification.
“You should just wait until you hear from one of our negotiators,” he told me politely.
Another two months passed without anyone calling, so I tried again in late March.
I was actually beginning to feel sorry for Chase. It seemed to be so flooded with defaulting borrowers that it didn’t have time to foreclose on my house. Eight months after my last payment to the bank, I am still waiting for the ax to fall.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/17/magazine/17foreclosure-t.html?pagewanted=all - -
“What do you mean, we’re out of money?” she asked in bewilderment.
What’s this “we’re” chit? It’s [you] who is out of money.
To be fair, the “skip down to crazy adventures” covers an interval of about five years. The wife didn’t start hissing until after their payments jumped and they were $50K in credit card debt. But this couple was in deep doo-doo from the beginning.
But this couple was in deep doo-doo from the beginning.
At least know they’re in deep. You’re so emotionally detached from your crushing losses that your bankruptcy hearing couldn’t snap you out of it.
Tell us… How far over your head are you? What did you pay?
If the principal on my Arizona Slim Ranch was reduced, man, I’d be going out there and spending money. Oh, yes I would.
So, PTB, cram me down!
“So, PTB, cram me down!”
GUNS ‘N ROSES - PARADISE CITY LYRICS
Cram me down in the paradise city
Where the loans are big
And the girls are pretty
(Oh, won’t you please cram me down?)
“So, PTB, cram me down!”
you gotta be 90 days past due first.
At which point they can dual track you…
Bilderberg Objectives
The Group’s grand design is for “a One World Government (World Company) with a single, global marketplace, policed by one world army, and financially regulated by one ‘World (Central) Bank’ using one global currency.” Their “wish list” includes:
– “one international identify (observing) one set of universal values;”
– centralized control of world populations by “mind control;” in other words, controlling world public opinion;
– a New World Order with no middle class, only “rulers and servants (serfs),” and, of course, no democracy;
– “a zero-growth society” without prosperity or progress, only greater wealth and power for the rulers;
– manufactured crises and perpetual wars;
– absolute control of education to program the public mind and train those chosen for various roles;
– “centralized control of all foreign and domestic policies;” one size fits all globally;
– using the UN as a de facto world government imposing a UN tax on “world citizens;”
– expanding NAFTA and WTO globally;
– making NATO a world military;
– imposing a universal legal system; and
– a global “welfare state where obedient slaves will be rewarded and non-conformists targeted for extermination.”
Later at the 1992 Bilderberg Group meeting, Henry Kissinger said:
“Today, Americans would be outraged if UN troops entered Los Angeles to restore order; tomorrow, they will be grateful. This is especially true if they were told there was an outside threat from beyond, whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. It is then that all people of the world will plead with world leaders to deliver them from this evil….individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well-being granted to them by their world government.”
Former CBS News president Richard Salant (1961 – 64 and 1966 – 79) explained the major media’s role: “Our job is to give people not what they want, but what we decide they ought to have.”
On page 405 of his Memoirs, David Rockfeller wrote:
“Some even believe we are part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States characterizing my family and me as ‘internationalists’ and conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated global political and economic structure – one world, if you will. If that’s the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it.”
Programming the Public Mind
According to sociologist Hadley Cantril in his 1967 book, The Human Dimension – Experiences in Policy Research:
Government “Psycho-political operations are propaganda campaigns designed to create perpetual tension and to manipulate different groups of people to accept the particular climate of opinion the CFR seeks to achieve in the world.”
Canadian writer Ken Adachi (1929 – 1989) added:
“What most Americans believe to be ‘Public Opinion’ is in reality carefully crafted and scripted propaganda designed to elicit a desired behavioral response from the public.”
And noted Australian academic and activist Alex Carey (1922 – 1988) explained the three most important 20th century developments – “The growth of democracy, the growth of corporate power, and the growth of corporate propaganda as a means of protecting corporate power against democracy.”
Web of Control
Numerous think tanks, foundations, the major media, and other key organizations are staffed with CFR members. Most of its life-members also belong to the TC and Bilderberg Group, operate secretly, and wield enormous power over US and world affairs.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-true-story-of-the-bilderberg-group-and-what-they-may-be-planning-now/13808 - -
Aim for the blue helmets.
The North American Union (NAU)
The idea emerged during the Reagan administration in the early 1980s. David Rockefeller, George Schultz and Paul Volker told the president that Canada and America could be politically and economically merged over the next 15 years except for one problem – French-speaking Quebec. Their solution – elect a Bilderberg-friendly prime minister, separate Quebec from the other provinces, then make Canada America’s 51st state. It almost worked, but not quite when a 1995 secession referendum was defeated – 50.56% to 49.44%, but not the idea of merger.
At a March 23, 2005 Waco, Texas meeting, attended by George Bush, Mexico’s Vincente Fox, and Canada’s Paul Martin, the Security and and Prosperity Partnership (SPP) was launched, also known as the North American Union (NAU). It was a secretive Independent Task Force of North America agreement – a group organized by the Canadian Council of Chief Executives (CCCE), the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations, and CFR with the following aims:
– circumventing the legislatures of three countries and their constitutions;
– suppressing public knowledge or consideration; and
– proposing greater US, Canadian and Mexican economic, political, social, and security integration with secretive working groups formed to devise non-debatable, not voted on agreements to be binding and unchangeable.
In short – a corporate coup d’etat against the sovereignty of three nations enforced by hard line militarization to suppress opposition.
If enacted, it will create a borderless North America, corporate controlled, without barriers to trade or capital flows for business giants, mainly US ones and much more – America’s access to vital resources, especially oil and Canada’s fresh water.
Yep. All true and documented.
“Real estate agent charged with stealing prescription drugs”
http://www.news-journalonline.com/article/20130322/NEWS/130329914
Typical. You just can’t trust anything these scumbags do or say.
The Hidden Evil: The Bilderbergers - The Hidden Evil Homepage
http://www.thehiddenevil.com/bb.asp - 33k -
Chris Christie is having lap band surgery. Appearance shouldn’t matter that much in elections, but clearly perception counts for a lot for things like conventions and debates. If the GOP primary voter contingent wasn’t so rabid, I’d say they finally have a viable Presidential candidate for ‘16.
The biggest advantage Christie would have is it looks like he could compete in fundraising without needing Koch or Tea Party money (and thus being beholden to fringe groups). Also seems like he could compete in California and New York.
Christie will be a WallStreet candidate for sure.
Oh great, another East Coast president. Maybe Christie will suck less than our current East Coast president, who was born on the East Coast of Africa!
I have a lot of disrespect for obese people.
Some random Iraqi dude interviewed after we liberated Iraq said, “I want to live in America because in America the poor people are fat!”
“I want to live in America because in America the poor people are fat!”
GUNS ‘N ROSES - PARADISE CITY LYRICS
Take me down to the paradise city
Where the poor are fat
And the girls are pretty
(Oh, won’t you please take me home?)
I don’t know the particulars of how Christie got to the size that he is. But I do know that he’s going to have to re-learn a bunch of habits.
Perhaps Overeaters Anonymous might be helpful. It has been for a lot of people.
My guess is a hormonal extra-sensitivity to various glutens. He needs to go Paleo, like, today. If had had gone Paleo in the first place he probably wouldn’t need the lap band.
What if it’s the meat and fat that made him fat?
The biggest advantage Christie would have is it looks like he could compete in fundraising without needing Koch or Tea Party money (and thus being beholden to fringe groups). Also seems like he could compete in California and New York.
The things that make him competitive on the left and right coasts are probably exactly what would make him a non-starter in the rest of the country. He may have had a chance at one time but IMO he’s already burned too many bridges to run as an R. If the Ds want him they can have him.
Romney was supposed to be competitive in liberal areas as well. As was McCain. As was Bob Dole. RINOs are always supposed to be competitive. They appeal to liberals. They embrace liberals. They’re moderate and don’t scare suburban moms with those crazy ideas like lower taxes, or balanced budget. Then election day comes and those same liberals that supposedly love RINOs amazingly enough vote for the “D”. Unless election day comes and no liberal actually votes for him. But I’m sure Krity Kreme will be the RINO that finally wins the big one.
Look back to the past presidential elections since 1976. When a squishy liberal Republican runs, he loses (Ford, Dole, McCain, Romney). When a conservative runs (Reagan, Bush 43) he wins. Bush 41 ran as a conservative in 1988 and won big. Then he governed like a liberal and lost in 1992 to a guy who ran as a conservative Democrat.
But why let 40 years of history be any guide? The GOP will give it to Kristy Kreme in 2016 and then be shocked, shocked I tells ya that he gets 0 liberal support in the general.
“When a squishy liberal Republican runs, he loses (Ford, Dole, McCain, Romney).”
You’re out there, dude — way out.
Bilderberg | Hang The Bankers | He Who Controls the Money Supply …
http://www.hangthebankers.com/tag/bilderberg/ - 45k -
The Federal Reserve Cartel
Part 1 - The Eight Families The Four Horsemen of Banking, Bank of America JP Morgan Chase Citigroup Wells Fargo, …own the Four Horsemen of Oil, Exxon Mobil Royal Dutch/Shell
What’s really going on in California
California imposed a new law on banks innocuously called “Homeowners Bill of Rights” which forces banks to switch over to a judicial foreclosure process, which they can opt to do on their own, but takes a year or more to renegotiate contracts and compensation structures for the foreclosure law firms who do all the leg work for the banks. And while those changes are being made… it makes it appear that foreclosures have slowed down dramatically in the state.
The reality?
Defaults (undeclared) are spiraling upward that yet have to pass through the foreclosure pipeline.
The truth?
California is still the highest foreclosure state in sheer volume and percentage.
The low-down?
Resale housing is still massively overpriced as a result of unprecedented interference by individual states and the federal government. The market distortions will be removed and the down draft will continue allowing the market to correct.
With millions of excess empty houses and housing demand at 17 year lows, housing prices a long way to fall. A very long way to fall.
Very impressive display of your abilities to use the bold and italic html tags, even simultaneously, to add appropriate emphasis to your posts. Too bad no one is listening…
You still haven’t figured out that nobody cares if you’re listening. And here we thought you had a nose for BS.
The kool-aid drinkers are winning the PR battle.
I am surrounded daily by starry-eyed loanowners strung out from huffing balloons of realtor jenkem, their level of self-delusion is incalculable.
indeed.
Indubitably.
When did you start using that term? (If it goes back to HS, let me know and I will leave a post on your facebook page…)
The kids are not alright:
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-08/what-do-u-s-college-graduates-lack-professionalism.html?cmpid=
You don’t need to look further than the young highly educated people who post on this board.
You ought to try working with them.
Or not.
Decorum and discretion are NOT in their vocabulary. Along with many other words that help everyone get through a working day.
Yep.
Here in Tucson, I’m noticing a trend I haven’t seen for a few years: Call it the for sale and/or for rent houses. What happens is that these places go on the resale market first.
A few weeks or months go by, and they don’t sell. So, up goes the “for rent” sign right next to the “for sale” sign.
I call this the “We’ll take the money any way we can get it!” strategy. And, to me, it doesn’t indicate a healthy housing market.
the future = there is no future
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elections-wont-stop-political-or-economic-decay-2013-05-09
“So now the richest 400 Americans have as much wealth as the bottom 180 million Americans, a state of inequality that Alperovitz describes in his book as “medieval.” (This remark, however, may be unfair to the Middle Ages, as Alperovitz recounted in a recent Washington appearance, after an historian told him there was no comparable concentration of wealth in that era.) “
Holy…..
I didn’t know that.
“400…180 million”
Are you quite certain that first figure wasn’t supposed to have ‘thousand’ attached to it?
Oh wait…that list includes the dude who bought an entire Hawaiian island.
Never mind…
So how many FannieMae and FreddieMac employees and consultants are posting here today?
At least they’re employed. Alot of paid Obama and Romney trolls got laid off in November and needed jobs so why not go to work trolling for F & F.
What’s next for this huge market bubble?
May 8, 2013, 1:21 PM
By Cody Willard
Dow 20K — Halfway There. Seriously?
It seems everybody’s bullish, the markets are great, and the Federal Reserve says that we’re still in dire need of “emergency measures” like 0% interest rates (ZIRP), QE Infinity, and all kinds of other tricks to keep this juggernaut going.
You hear people say we’re headed into a new stock market bubble and that you should be buying aggressively. Are we really headed to 20,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA +0.13%), for example, as my friend and one of the hottest hands this cycle predicts? See Dow 20K — Halfway There.
One problem. The time to be buying aggressively was when the markets were horrible and the Federal Reserve’s wild foray into uncharted monetary expansion and new gimmicks for inflating bubbles was just getting started. With the broader indexes up more than double from this cycle’s most recent lows back in 2009 and with many stocks up triple, quadruple or more (including Apple, despite it being so far off its highs from this cycle), one might make the case, as I have recently, that we are already in bubble territory. Sure, I expect the bubble to get bigger before a disastrous pop in late 2014 or 2015 or so, but I think it’s pretty obvious that we are already now in bubble territory in bonds, in stocks, and in a lot of other asset values.
I remain mostly long and positioned for more of a stock market bubble ahead. But my subscribers and I were wa-a-ay ahead of the curve in getting set up for this bubble that we are now in and which is probably going to get worse before popping. A look back at your own historical analysis will help you become a much better investor and trader in the future, and I do suggest keeping some sort of written (or digital) record of your thought processes and analysis as you put your money to work.
…
DOW 36000
http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0609806998/ref=mp_s_a_1?qid=1368123848&sr=8-1&pi=SL75
A couple ideas on how to trade the Money Supply Bubble (November 2009, DJIA at 10,200) - ”And I do think we’ll see a lot of strange asset appreciation turning into horrific and painful bubbles in the next five years … assuming the stock market is actually a part of that bubble – let’s picture the DJIA bubbling up to new highs and hitting 15,000…”
Boldest call yet? (Pick a number, any number…)
Bulletin U.S. stocks end lower Thursday, halting record-setting run
May 9, 2013, 3:22 p.m. EDT
Dow 15,000? Try 116,200
Commentary: Why it’s not as far-fetched as it sounds
By Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch
When the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 15,000, it had me dreaming of bigger things.
Specifically: Dow 116,200.
That was the market level predicted by mutual fund pioneer Bill Berger in a 1995 speech at a Society of American Business Editors and Writers conference in Boston, and it was almost as laughable then — with the Dow at 4,500 — as it seems now, when it stands more than 100,000 points into the Dow’s future.
…
Here is Phoenix is seems like every other radio ad is for financial planing - how to invest in the stock market. Is it just me or has anyone else noticed this. When the stock market was in the tank I don’t remember hearing ads like this. Also the ads on how to flip houses with no money and no credit. Which by the way is impossible.
“Also the ads on how to flip houses with no money and no credit. Which by the way is impossible.”
Must be the straw buyer method they’re advertising.
“Also the ads on how to flip houses with no money and no credit.”
No money and no credit means the predators are bottom fishing.
What rms said. I remember the same ads back in 2004-05. By mid-2005, the previous housing bubble was hissing air.
Financial advisers should brace themselves for more PTSD to come, because this isn’t over yet, and won’t be for some time.
Is this story a hoax?
May 9, 2013, 12:11 p.m. EDT
93% of financial advisers had PTSD after 2008
Study finds emotional fallout had lasting impact on decision making
By Quentin Fottrell
Financial advisers were shellshocked in the months and perhaps years following the 2008 financial crisis. Many couldn’t sleep, they suffered bouts of anxiety and depression and self-doubt. In fact, according to just-published academic research: some 93% of advisers and planners surveyed wrestled with post-traumatic stress disorder. And many are still reeling from the effects.
Nearly every single financial professional interviewed as part of the research reported medium to high levels of post-traumatic stress, according to the study published in the Journal of Financial Therapy. The survey — “Financial Trauma: Why the Abandonment of Buy-and-Hold in Favor of Tactical Asset Management May be a Symptom of Post-Traumatic Stress” — found that another 40% of planners reported severe symptoms. The respondents managed assets with an average value of between $20 million and $40 million.
“A lot of these financial planners I worked with couldn’t sleep at night,” says Brad Klontz, an associate professor at Kansas State University and co-author of the study. “They shoulder a great deal of the financial and emotional responsibility when they manage client assets.” Indeed, a separate 2008 survey by financial planner Katherine Vessenes also found that 90% of financial planners reported that the fall in the market had increased their stress levels, and 30% said their work lives negatively affected their sleep.
To meet the criteria for a clinical diagnosis of post-traumatic stress, people must exhibit disturbances like the inability to sleep or concentrate at work for more than a month. “People with post-traumatic stress disorder experience intense negative emotions, particularly anxiety and fear,” says E. David Klonsky, associate professor in the Department of Psychology at the University of British Columbia. “Risky behaviors like substance use, aggression and thrill-seeking can sometimes provide temporary relief.”
During the height of the crisis, may financial planners did increase their risk-taking, the research found. Almost half of those financial planners followed by Klontz reported that the financial crisis caused them to dramatically rethink their strategies. Over the past five years, Klontz tracked the changing investment of financial planners. “There’s an entire industry that’s moving to tactical planning or market-timing,” he says.
A slew of recent studies of investment strategies have also confirmed as much. Some 83% of financial planners are moving away from buy-and-sell and toward market-timing, according to a 2011 survey carried out by newsletter and website publisher Bob Veres, a financial planner based in San Diego, Calif. Another survey by account provider Curian Capital similarly concluded that 63% of over 1,000 independent financial advisers also began switching to more tactical asset-allocation strategies.
“These findings provide an academic view of what I’ve seen,” says Tom McGuigan, principal with Exencial Wealth Advisors in Old Lyme, Conn. But, he says, the change in strategies due to stress or anxiety does not yield the best results. “I’ve come across odd things in prospective clients’ portfolios,” he says. They include “tons of cash” in money markets and certificates of deposits, he says, and portfolios worth their weight in gold and crude oil. “Those folks have certainly lost out,” McGuigan says.
…
Nobody cares about those schlubs.
The 0.1% were made whole and that’s the only thing that matters.
they never saw it coming I bet.
Is this story a hoax?
Slightly. I think it’s 99.9% of all politicians and other jackboots had PTSD since 2008. That explains things.
Yawn…
Expect 10% stock-market tumble: S&P analysts
May 9, 2013, 8:00 AM
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index notched another record close on Tuesday, bringing the U.S. benchmark to a level more than 11% above its 200-day moving average, compared to a more typical 2.4% spread.
To the analysts at S&P Capital IQ, U.S. stocks look stretched.
…
I gotta laugh at these suckers paying $100+/sq foot for a run down 30 year old house considering we’re profitable building at $60/sq ft.
what about the fools on the coast payn 1000.00/ sq ft for old sh@t?
Yeah. Or at least $600 per square foot moldy stucco boxes older than my age, walking distance from my moldy $1200 per month rent studio in L.A. $639,900…1140 sq foot built in 1955. Yuck!
Have to admit the interior looks very spiffy. But…it would sell for $150,000 in Tucson near UA.
Listing #13005652
$430,000 (LP)
Price/SqFt: 354.49
13508 Laurelhurst Rd, Moorpark, CA 93021 * Pending
Beds: 3* Baths: 2 (2 0 0 0) (FTHQ)* Sq Ft: 1213* Lot Sz: 5246sqft*
Area: SMP Yr: 1976*
1213 square feet .. 430K .. 1976.. Pending !!!
this is really getting F’d up .
As has been previously noted here, “It’s not rape if you volunteer.”
And sadly, the suckers who made the tragic error of paying that massively inflated price have no idea it can be built for a small fraction of that amount. Literally a small fraction.
there still sitting in their houses getting free rent. How did they go wrong?
And just like you, they paid 3x for a used up house. Then compounded their losses once again by financing it.
How much did you pay for your debt-dump?
Scarier is when you compare to the last sale (Feb 2005) at $495k…we’re talking 80%+ of 2005 price at $430k…yikes.
What’s eating the gold bugs alive today? Is it a giant flock of birds
Gold - Electronic (COMEX) Jun 2013
CNS: GCM3
Market closed $1,455.70
Change -$12.90 -0.88%
Volume 1,197
May 9, 2013, 7:09 p.m.
Previous close $1,468.60
Day low $1,455
Day high $1,458
Open: $1,457.50
52 week low $1,322
52 week high $1,803
I did not see any flock around me. Looking forward to more buying in a month.
Don’t you find it bizarre when the price direction of gold turns straight down for no reason whatsoever?
Or is there perhaps some reason and I’m missing it?
P.S. For an interesting look at recent market activity, click on the 5-year view of the linked chart. I’d like to hear plausible explanations for the huge volume spike after the big crash this spring.
Nah! I buy with the crowd. Lots of physical buying. The Central Banks and Keynesians are really working their rear ends off trying to keep gold prices down. But they could only last “so long.”
If you think the entitlements crisis of social security and medicare in the next ten years has nothing to do with this panic act by central bankers, I have a bridge… These clowns are preparing. Wonder if DHS and the hollow bullet buying frenzy is another angle to it? Add it all up and the dollar is going down. Taxes going way up. 401ks and IRAs all confiscated. But movable and hidable wealth will be far harder to confiscate. This is why the attack by bankers on gold.
It’s funny that you think the CBs are keeping the price of gold down. What, exactly, are they doing to that end?
I had been under the impression that QE3 was driving the price of gold and other hard assets skyward, but perhaps I was wrong.
Chinese auditor warns of debt crisis
Peter Ryan reported this story on Thursday, April 18, 2013 12:20:00
ELEANOR HALL: Now to the warnings about massive debt levels in China that could spark a financial crisis there unless officials get it under control.
One of China’s top auditors has revealed that his accounting firm has stopped approving requests from local governments to increase their debt exposures.
In a rare interview, the auditor said Chinese debt is out of control and warned that a meltdown rivalling the US housing slump was possible.
Business editor Peter Ryan has more.
…
How many rate cuts in last six years
May 9, 2013, 11:48 AM
MarketWatch has not been counting, but Bank of America Merrill Lynch has tallied up the number of central bank rate cuts, globally, since June 2007.
Let’s see how much you have been paying attention.
How many rate cuts have there been globally since June 2007?
A. 85
B. 210
C. 510
D. 825
E. One gazillion
The correct answer will come later, so scroll down. But in the meantime, just know that South Korea and Poland this week added to the list.
With that flood of liquidity in mind, never mind the records tallied in major indexes like the S&P 500, the Nikkei 225 and the German DAX: BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett says the risk of a “melt-up” is high and rising. “Equities have significantly outperformed bonds over the past 1 and 3 years, and yet investors remain structurally overweight bonds and underweight equities,” he says in a note to clients.
,,,